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0.5000000000000008 | aaeahj0fw4 | {"NO": 1286.1444748005138, "YES": 777.5176269797404} | 0.623234042865351 | will-michelle-obama-wins-against-do | 2456.91271986835 | Will Michelle Obama wins against Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election | 1731797940000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580192122802965 | False | basic | public | 1719586025197 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this is a Hypothetical Match-Up Michelle Obama and Donald Trump must be the nominees if not this market resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09654316238552207, "month": 0.123234042865351} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.08657434043259, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Base | 1720007781761 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720007778706 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | jgj7b2mjhz | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | will-kamala-harris-come-out-in-supp | 0 | Will Kamala Harris ever come out in support of Biden dropping out? | 1719587195997 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1719587089142 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If she says something like, “Biden shouldn’t step down but if he does then I should be the presidential nominee” (much like Cruz Bustamante in the 2003 California recall), that doesn’t count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO on Election Day if this doesn’t happen. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719587195997 | 1000 | Conflux | 1719587195997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Side note: despite what you may read from some media reports, the worryingly hot Apple Weather forecasts for Saturday, July 6, from Thursday morning weren't a glitch; they were GFS predictions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of the very most extreme forecasts I've ever seen anywhere in the world has been suggested by the GFS:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.ventusky.com/red-bluff", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ventusky.com/red-bluff", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "131F would be the world's all-time reliable temperature record, beating 130F set at Death Valley in 2020 and tied in 2021.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current record temperature for the Central Valley is 121F, recorded in Red Bluff in 1981.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*FWIW I think that 130 degrees in the Central Valley is completely impossible, physically speaking. 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0.5000000000000002 | mv0bubtdim | {"NO": 998.5551234664815, "YES": 1001.446967222503} | 0.49927703981673727 | will-social-security-become-insolve | 589.3407243876878 | Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040? | 2209103940000 | A6WRayk8RmNpyx34WBKKdJCt4F83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333664275072 | False | basic | public | 1719593309559 | C3PO the Dragon Slayer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point before 2040 the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is unable to make timely payments due to insufficient reserves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if OASI is restructured into a trust fund that's still recognizable colloquially as \"social security,\" such as if it's combined with Social Security Disability Insurance, and if that restructured trust fund later becomes insolvent at any point before 2040.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This does NOT resolve YES if social security checks are delayed not due insolvency, but due to logistical issues or legal issues unrelated to the trust fund's insolvency, such as a debt ceiling breach that halts government spending.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This ONLY resolves YES if the trust fund actually runs out of money and is unable to pay out full benefits as a result. This includes scenarios where social security benefits are paid out in full, but through debt rather than the trust fund, or through some other means to replace the gap left by the trust fund's insolvency. It also includes scenarios such as the one where, by as-of 2024 law, benefits are cut across the board by 20% if the trust fund is unable to provide 100%, but the trust fund is able to maintain benefits at that reduced level. However, if the law is changed such that the full benefits are reduced or restructured before the trust fund becomes insolvent ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves NO if the year 2040 arrives and the social security trust fund has been solvent continuously since the creation of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves N/A if the social security trust fund, or social security more broadly, is reformed into something that lacks a trust fund, before the social security trust fund actually becomes insolvent.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.010257847056873992, "month": -0.000722960183262733} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.85857159513503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | C3POtheDragonSlayer | 1719811998621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7d229VN6EVq3TTznucx41aQTm4sj4xwy1C1PGQ=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673537046654 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719811995171 | 1719594678129 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6gygkz9jnc | how-many-democratic-members-of-cong | 10216.774749911012 | How many Democratic members of Congress will call on Biden to step aside by 7/7? | 1720421940000 | Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719595239109 | Eric Neyman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Democratic\" means anyone caucusing with the Democrats, and thus includes Bernie Sanders and Angus King. \"By 7/7\" means by 11:59pm PT on 7/6. By \"step aside\", I mean \"not seek the presidential nomination of the Democratic party\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden steps aside by 7/7, then this question will resolve to the number of people who will have called for Biden to step aside by the time that he steps aside.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm not sure how to make \"call on Biden to resign\" unambiguous, but:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It should be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "unconditional", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". A statement like \"If Biden is unable to do X, he should step aside\" doesn't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I can answer questions in the comments (though don't promise to do so quickly.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ultimately I'll be making the judgment call.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 123.35459739013179, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 645.5583000762304 | 1000 | EricNeyman | 1720244472716 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiPFPOiz1zGjPpuk7iqSJxdcLSra5RL3n0RXK2q=s96-c | 33 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "lvnejatmam", "prob": 0.008093728783148756, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.076444930768275, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3195.732146562903, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "6gygkz9jnc", "createdTime": 1719595239109, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0016514943196682293, "week": -0.47133241590440733, "month": -0.24133241590440732}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0016514943196682293, "probChangeWeek": -0.47133241590440733, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24133241590440732}, {"id": "nys6s2490z", "prob": 0.5843849119823217, "text": "1-10", "index": 1, "poolNo": 342.30498322886564, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 243.44761956800596, "textFts": "'-10':2 '1':1", "contractId": "6gygkz9jnc", "createdTime": 1719595239109, "probChanges": {"day": 0.07697267896756865, "week": 0.2984463756270283, "month": 0.3852702576674757}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.07697267896756865, "probChangeWeek": 0.2984463756270283, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.3852702576674757}, {"id": "gdf2828jcx", "prob": 0.3600000000000001, "text": "11-50", "index": 2, "poolNo": 216.5063509461097, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 384.9001794597505, "textFts": "'-50':2 '11':1", "contractId": "6gygkz9jnc", "createdTime": 1719595239109, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0455226023984831, "week": 0.20030520190488177, "month": 0.05036240129806285}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0455226023984831, "probChangeWeek": 0.20030520190488177, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.05036240129806285}, {"id": "cxs8cnnrmr", "prob": 0.04752135923452953, "text": ">50", "index": 3, "poolNo": 64.48017111366806, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1292.3869756243419, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "6gygkz9jnc", "createdTime": 1719595239109, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02979858224941729, "week": -0.027419161627502624, "month": -0.1943002430611312}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02979858224941729, "probChangeWeek": -0.027419161627502624, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.1943002430611312}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642222980375 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720244469637 | 1720239588274 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.499999999999999 | nwqeiqjh57 | {"NO": 994.9874371066197, "YES": 10.050378152592089} | 1 | will-a-sitting-democrat-congressper-rxk34j32o0 | 1284.9018477138166 | Will a sitting Democrat Congressperson call for Biden to drop out of the election by the end of July? | 1719939577052 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719598819271 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "66wfd03b5n", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-sitting-democrat-congressper-manzwgq90x"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "w4xtqxtjlq", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-sitting-democrat-congressper"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.40765903188717434, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.23489893374981, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719939577052 | 100 | strutheo | 1719939577052 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719939268871 | 1719939553302 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | iwpxdz3vni | {"NO": 34.86394654781515, "YES": 286.8292603158172} | 0.10837638409503055 | will-biden-and-trump-shake-hands-at | 190 | Will Biden and Trump shake hands at the second debate in September? | 1726027140000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719600954151 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several markets asked if they would during the first debate and resolved \"NO.\" Will the 2nd debate be any different?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the second debate does not occur, this market will resolve \"N/A\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.006993879230953362, "month": -0.39162361590496947} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1707396841828004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | burkh4rt | 1719645444087 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719645441024 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9pn8l739v9 | conditional-upon-the-democratic-par | 9716.33671627697 | Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election? | 1731196740000 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.173160512882429 | False | basic | public | 1719602272833 | Hamish Todd | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The New York Times (democrat supporters) has suggested that the Democrats should replace Biden:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html?pvid=YUPYrCnXb_Zq6NC-Qna09rWN&smid=url-share", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html?pvid=YUPYrCnXb_Zq6NC-Qna09rWN&smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It seems a drastic move at this stage, so here's a prediction market to help them! This is a decision market, meaning that if they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "don't", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " replace him, this market is cancelled (eg you get your money back if you bet on it - because we will never know what would have happened if they had!).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can think of it as a contrast to the many \"will Biden or Trump win the election?\" markets, because those assume Biden is the dems nominee (so strictly speaking they should be cancelled if he is replaced, because in that situation it will become impossible to be sure whether the dems would have won having kept him).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you see a higher price on \"dems win\" bets in this market Vs \"Biden wins\" markets, that tells you that the Dems should replace Biden.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 154.62080928890276, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 128 | 1000 | HamishTodd | 1720244058950 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 89 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "z28u0lw03n", "prob": 0.44416935886395204, "text": "Biden is replaced and the democrats win", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 446.96452986236596, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 559.3284999079972, "textFts": "'biden':1 'democrat':6 'replac':3 'win':7", "contractId": "9pn8l739v9", "createdTime": 1719602272833, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03916051686445993, "week": -0.11341492120292612, "month": -0.033517830103141966}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.03916051686445993, "probChangeWeek": -0.11341492120292612, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.033517830103141966}, {"id": "xc7v996evz", "prob": 0.555830641136048, "text": "Biden is replaced and the democrats lose", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 559.3284999079971, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 446.9645298623661, "textFts": "'biden':1 'democrat':6 'lose':7 'replac':3", "contractId": "9pn8l739v9", "createdTime": 1719602272833, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03916051686445987, "week": 0.11341492120292612, "month": 0.03351783010314202}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03916051686445987, "probChangeWeek": 0.11341492120292612, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.03351783010314202}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644109710077 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720244055866 | 1720043093235 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | g7xq2on23y | {"NO": 118.00128324688276, "YES": 8474.484111395619} | 0.01373307929280365 | will-joe-biden-run-for-a-second-non | 9843.484782251604 | Will Joe Biden run for a second non-consecutive presidential term in 2028? | 1735718340000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.858815384144425 | False | basic | public | 1719602920658 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 0.0037330792928036427, "month": -0.48626692070719635} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.05486127110156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndrewG | 1719962610862 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1654655993992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719962607375 | 1719612277673 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | v7abivzk2w | {"NO": 283.81674494442524, "YES": 35.23400284912057} | 0.8895661486682361 | will-nick-mercz-be-unbanned-from-tw | 187 | Will Nick Mercs be unbanned from Twitch before Destiny? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719603788162 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open until either happens, or 50% if unbanned same time, or if Twitch dissolves ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.13552561370924077, "month": 0.38956614866823613} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.183255055574754, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719681169900 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681166635 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | oeg9skgax2 | {"NO": 174.108703396511, "YES": 57.43538263693943} | 0.7519462335624416 | will-nick-mercz-be-unbanned-from-tw-ylcqy4em6v | 76 | Will Nick Mercs be unbanned from Twitch before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719603839069 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2519462335624416} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8912966034889824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719617409483 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719617406355 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | kjxrjmg7q4 | {"NO": 339.2559534272454, "YES": 2947.626975732511} | 0.10321510097530963 | will-there-be-a-second-ballot-for-p | 7330.775785184636 | Will there be a second ballot for president at the Democratic National Convention? | 1724914740000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.565576031328042 | False | basic | public | 1719604013796 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It hasn’t occurred since 1952.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.02321510097530964, "month": -0.3967848990246904} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 87.79880271303024, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1720038167755 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720038164239 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | u7pakil1lt | {"NO": 1494.6131005356942, "YES": 669.0694733249595} | 0.6907728141789579 | if-biden-drops-out-will-polymarkets | 2124.676612264113 | If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week? | 1731477540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.595584556908687 | False | basic | public | 1719604721995 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden does not drop out, this resolves N/A. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") one week after Biden drops out is lower than it was before he drops out. Resolves NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will define \"before he drops out\" as the last moment that this market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is below 94%. I will define one week after he drops out as exactly 7 days after the moment \"before he drops out\". I will wait until he officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn or exits the race since only then can I identify the last moment that the market was below 94%.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the market thinks Democrats would do better if Biden was not the nominee. I duplicated a similar market about winning the election. I am focusing on an intermediate outcome that should be easier to predict. As the author of the duplicated market notes, this is inspired by one of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Robin Hanson's ideas for conditional prediction markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/if-i-had-a-millhtml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " where there would be a conditional market on a company's stock price if they fired their CEO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden does not drop out since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.040363153386606676, "month": 0.19077281417895786} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.445377605532826, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1719958514278 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719958510624 | 1719731718617 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 7e4nik00gx | {"NO": 45.56008621885901, "YES": 219.4903660182412} | 0.17189212783573507 | will-teflon-or-other-related-nonsti | 122 | Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719605107229 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done at the federal level", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.08468673068436347, "month": -0.32810787216426496} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.509633981758817, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719670234103 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719648430053 | 1719613871405 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lq9sier1lr | what-the-hell-is-a-limit-order | 0 | What the hell is a limit order?? | 1dTml0ZyhfP1dGAmTuWWKMEQVj62 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719605799721 | Sounds Nentindo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | SoundsNentindo | 1719608753778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjTy_rr1v6yh7WENeR8kOpMlP_UPqFMzyez1AQOZqX=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702852140815 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719608752591 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dk6bs4p7wt | {"NO": 106.01831665717552, "YES": 94.32332369826568} | 0.5291876240460069 | will-ben-jerrys-chocolate-chip-cook | 16 | Will Ben & Jerry's Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough ice cream still be produced by 2065? | 2998076340000 | BMuuEZoTuDVeGWWv3Bfr434kobF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719606020181 | Calibrated Neutral | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04775490085313644, "month": 0.029187624046006944} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5351001042842379, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CalibratedNeutral | 1719676536740 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680548461105 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719676533673 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29953132252424003 | 4p1lt99uys | {"NO": 454.79695473646774, "YES": 581.4159201518479} | 0.25065049975758924 | will-there-be-an-fda-approved-treat | 126 | Will there be an FDA Approved treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome by 2030. | 1893538740000 | FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.527558432315494 | False | play | public | 1719608248885 | Yann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the FDA approves a pharmaceutical intervention for ME/CFS before 1st Jan 2030 this market shall resolve to yes. This does not include potential comorbidities, such as long covid.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.048537157783465096, "month": -0.24934950024241076} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.085771162154693, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | Yann | 1720091097374 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719606448794 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720091094064 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2oxzokvgcb | {"NO": 42.45628788888214, "YES": 235.53637157756958} | 0.1527244926911669 | will-jimmy-carter-out-live-biden | 697.3177605932678 | Will jimmy carter out live Biden? | 1735718340000 | ZtB2CzUgnkccWKqSksJyWEGAgGn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719609382080 | Grend | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.09076485599594042, "month": -0.3472755073088331} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.28677575857737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Grendwhich | 1720221250274 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIK04F2NSW97DJsE_jW4TlasxarSEeQfMPS2F_fEPAoQ=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707869869587 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720221247024 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | v7f6tc6acp | {"NO": 43.42315861261752, "YES": 230.29186082963324} | 0.1586436824004065 | will-the-lancet-retract-the-pace-tr | 133 | Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030 | 1893884340000 | FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719610059068 | Yann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3413563175995935} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.708139170366776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Yann | 1719612493411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719606448794 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719612489964 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ab3pvzwnrq | which-deck-will-win-pro-tour-modern | 635.2820262607659 | Which deck will win Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3? | 1719764141776 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | ggo6bk6nzu | public | 1719618829560 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official metagame breakdown", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://magic.gg/news/pro-tour-modern-horizons-3-metagame-breakdown", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I plan on using a fairly broad definition for archetypes—e.g. I lumped 4-color & Bant Nadu together.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can carve out other archetypes from \"Other\", but if I think it's already covered by an existing option, then I will default to the first option added.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm not super up to date on MTG these days, so if I'm told my classifications are wrong, I'll probably follow consensus (but my goal is to be broad, and not to nitpick about exactly whether it fits into that archetype).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll probably close the market on the final day (but the mana here is trivial so who knows if I'll remember).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.483562152337759, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719764141776 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1719784304838 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ggo6bk6nzu", "prob": 0.9899314566779199, "text": 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0.5 | 3ef882zwka | {"NO": 72.01092159232209, "YES": 138.8678241977424} | 0.34148022515275633 | will-slasher-win-his-bet-with-dan-t | 40 | Will Dan win his (proposed) bet with Slasher that the Captain Disrespect logs will leak by the end of the year? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719620588230 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if captain disrespect's logs leak by the end of 2024 by my judgement, resolves NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "happens even if Slasher and Dan do not agree on terms of the bet or hold it officially ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.15851977484724367, "month": -0.15851977484724367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1321758022575794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719672291217 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719672288142 | 1719620783528 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 97akxlkxz2 | {"NO": 82.55621292741925, "YES": 121.1295872885021} | 0.4053115771443263 | at-the-end-of-juneteenth-2025-june | 165.22254849848238 | At the end of Juneteenth 2025 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin? | 1750391940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719620957495 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The total amount of mnana sold (USD) in the last 30 days has to be higher than the minimum Bitcon price on the day this resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Mana sold: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Bitcoin price: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.00702622167826894, "month": -0.09468842285567369} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.647864213015508, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719989396021 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719989392878 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | odbafhkhv6 | {"NO": 149.22692225145133, "YES": 67.01203676337792} | 0 | if-celene-gets-injected-with-24mg-e | 220.74723940898483 | If Celene gets injected with 2-4mg estrogen will she feel inexplicably better the next day | 1719993958688 | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719622224504 | Celene | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Off estrogen rn due to multiple emotional breakdowns, now I'm severely depressed which might just be a random depressive episode or might be due to being off estrogen. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Celene/if-celene-continues-being-off-estro?r=Q2VsZW5l", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Celene/if-celene-continues-being-off-estro?r=Q2VsZW5l", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5900000000000001, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.591819298507374, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719993958688 | 100 | Celene | 1719993958688 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677632865523 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719774108045 | 1719680166381 | 0.69 | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | r7r2ouulf7 | {"NO": 93.8455913045049, "YES": 106.55801578949576} | 0.46828294492965883 | will-dr-disrespect-sign-a-contract | 55 | Will Dr Disrespect sign a contract with Kick by the end of June 2025? | 1751342340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719622905658 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03171705507034117, "month": -0.03171705507034117} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.801123312570092, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719917148727 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719917145646 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | z64vr8zokm | {"NO": 56.14165957046869, "YES": 178.12084780728745} | 0.23965277328795256 | will-teflon-or-other-related-nonsti-k9sssb368o | 155.06375022034595 | Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719623130793 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done at the federal level , not just a state banning it ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10182741715361557, "month": -0.26034722671204746} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.134944277135213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719808993179 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808989777 | 1719670174120 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tvspewl4rh | if-trump-wins-who-will-be-the-next | 21.426452974829097 | If Trump wins, who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair? | 1730782740000 | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719623200364 | Eric Zhu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump stated that he will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not re-appoint Jerome Powell", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/02/02/donald-trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chair-return", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Herman Cain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/herman-cain-withdraws-bid-to-join-fed-after-republicans-sink-trumps-pick/2019/04/22/b755a770-5d33-11e9-842d-7d3ed7eb3957_story.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Stephen Moore", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/22/us/politics/stephen-moore-federal-reserve.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Judy Shelton", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/business/economy/judy-shelton-federal-reserve-inconsistencies.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", who Trump tried to nominate before him, were all blocked. Who can Trump get through Congress? Will Trump have to compromise again? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "initial rumors", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/business/economy/trump-federal-reserve.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of who could be appointed. Feel free to enter in new nominees or suggest feedback!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION CRITERIA:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This bet resolves when the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Federal Reserve website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " updates the Federal Reserve Chair. If the Federal Reserve is abolished or the title of chair is removed from the Federal Reserve, the market will resolve \"No More Chairs.\" ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will only resolve once, so if Trump nominates someone but abolishes the Fed a week later, the market will only resolve for that Chair and will not resolve for \"No More Chairs.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump does not win the election, the market will resolve when the results of the election is announced at the share value when the election is announced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will try my best to keep the dates, and will not bet. 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0.5000000000000002 | qaqt86tb77 | {"NO": 555.2837124568945, "YES": 1800.8812028276939} | 0.23567268524148494 | will-prediction-markets-be-able-to | 1759.079729898755 | Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035? | 2067397140000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585227182817121 | False | basic | public | 1719640121046 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if by 2030 there exists a death market that is so efficient, that if you were to put someone's name in it, it will tell you the correct day they would die +-30 days, 95% of the time.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.21827374952903938, "month": -0.26432731475851506} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.15428790492002, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1719681481731 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719681478658 | 1719659734019 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | qe97inxecz | {"NO": 999.9999999999976, "YES": 1000.0000000000025} | 0 | daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc | 23650.25742563471 | Daily coinflip | 1719806340000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57033333971474 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719640146576 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 170)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 87 heads vs 82 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5022035813993344, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 391.3535616763955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719817043320 | 1000 | Traveel | 1719806340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 92 | 23 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719802325960 | 1719810435833 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | s8q42w5kc0 | {"NO": 886.3896125178176, "YES": 1128.1720655090583} | 0.4399913004331421 | will-the-majority-of-developed-nati | 283.98196657285064 | Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035? | 1909630740000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572592639114887 | False | basic | public | 1719640179125 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04807246461200104, "month": -0.06000869956685789} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.98599898884859, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1720045989803 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720045401789 | 1720045988431 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ru6j0oq05k | {"NO": 1169.3137091704975, "YES": 855.2024936998243} | 0.5775768588627083 | will-alex-jones-start-a-new-media-v | 285 | Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down? | 1909630740000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574135663616959 | False | basic | public | 1719640262400 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.07757685886270826, "month": 0.07757685886270826} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.148707624017494, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1719672977083 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719672974013 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | grcuk66aom | {"NO": 919.9481299572362, "YES": 1087.0178083263093} | 0.4583775501162819 | will-a-synthetic-biological-intelli | 615 | Will a synthetic biological intelligence system be developed that can match the intelligence of a bumblebee by 2030? | 1909630740000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57141444769529 | False | basic | public | 1719640418995 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.004431115345757575, "month": -0.041622449883718105} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.588959039952993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1720088774667 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720088771328 | 1719657935699 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ihlrlcdmxg | {"NO": 375.92931467358665, "YES": 2660.07454318449} | 0.12382372759526328 | will-the-13-of-us-adults-believe-we | 2837.004083458465 | Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040? | 1909630740000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.725063353238898 | False | basic | public | 1719640530752 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.35258611386122163, "month": -0.3761762724047367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.592118289351745, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1719788351883 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719788348781 | 1719660194823 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | v39gndy6ld | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-a-video-be-uploaded-to-jschlat | 0 | Will a video be uploaded to jschlattLIVE during the month of July? | 1722488340000 | HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719640601892 | TheSchwa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given that a video is uploaded to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "jschlattLIVE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@jschlattLIVE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " approximately every 1-2 months and the most recent video was posted on Jun 1, will a video be uploaded in the month of July?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TheSchwa | 1719640601940 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1712888273551 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5zi9a5ak1s | who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-j8gx5ptrlf | 27.852905949658194 | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if Biden is unable to stand as the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? | 1731311940000 | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719644312905 | Ansel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is designed to disentangle the question of whether there’s a really a better Democratic presidential candidate than Joe Biden. Since any erstwhile replacement would probably need to gather a lot of political support in order to force him out, the traditional conditional formulations do not get at the core question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This entire market resolves N/A UNLESS Joe Biden is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "no longer able", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " to stand as the Democratic nominee through some process entirely outside of any political decision making. Examples would be:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some health issue that means he’s incapacitated", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He dies before the election", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In particular, if he voluntarily resigns or gives up his delegates, or is removed at the convention despite being still alive and lucid, this still resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An 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0.5000000000000001 | z0i1y4h9e5 | {"NO": 583.0017653720333, "YES": 1715.2606722586247} | 0.2536706669465764 | would-joe-bidens-campaign-experienc | 3151.2766091625713 | Would Joe Biden's campaign experience a dramatic decrease in donations following his debate performance? | 1722747540000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.6161114851231 | False | basic | public | 1719644683006 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently resolves if Joe Biden is unable to raise half as much as Donald Trump within July. I am willing to change the resolution criteria if there is a better way to do it.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.24632933305342358, "month": -0.24632933305342358} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.84987647937484, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1720020884675 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720020880553 | 1719699180416 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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8bsifstogr | what-will-be-the-host-city-for-the | 1220.0543904045894 | What will be the host city for the Eurovision Song Contest 2025? | 1753999140000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719663746580 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.45448271112723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Base | 1719706928941 | 0 | 5 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cfs6mm1uw6", "prob": 0.7240138808718712, "text": "Zurich", "index": 0, "poolNo": 467.56199553529075, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 178.22948428032237, "textFts": "'zurich':1", "contractId": "8bsifstogr", "createdTime": 1719663746581, "probChanges": {"day": 0.37667409379446626, "week": 0.37667409379446626, "month": 0.37667409379446626}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.37667409379446626, "probChangeWeek": 0.37667409379446626, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.37667409379446626}, {"id": "s2qajij50q", "prob": 0.14064140095638836, "text": "Geneva", "index": 1, "poolNo": 116.78276548376076, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 713.5756118476344, "textFts": "'geneva':1", "contractId": "8bsifstogr", "createdTime": 1719663746581, "probChanges": {"day": -0.054376881638086655, "week": -0.054376881638086655, "month": -0.054376881638086655}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.054376881638086655, "probChangeWeek": -0.054376881638086655, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.054376881638086655}, {"id": "z8jvk2vg49", "prob": 0.09590859197710488, "text": "Bern", "index": 2, "poolNo": 94.02253658090592, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 886.312328551415, "textFts": "'bern':1", "contractId": "8bsifstogr", "createdTime": 1719663746581, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12086736615828214, "week": -0.12086736615828214, "month": -0.12086736615828214}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12086736615828214, "probChangeWeek": -0.12086736615828214, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.12086736615828214}, {"id": "8dzru5xp9s", "prob": 0.03943612619463553, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 58.491583152240835, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1424.706408038826, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8bsifstogr", "createdTime": 1719663746581, "probChanges": {"day": -0.20142984599809732, "week": -0.20142984599809732, "month": -0.20142984599809732}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.20142984599809732, "probChangeWeek": -0.20142984599809732, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.20142984599809732}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719706925816 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mkxor8h6gs | {"NO": 10.053815150665372, "YES": 994.647290619643} | 0 | will-manifold-want-biden-to-be-the | 970.9878290364207 | Will Manifold want Biden to be the nominee? | 1720151940000 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719664253634 | Charlie Bauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to this poll", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/CharlieBauer/should-joe-biden-be-the-2024-democr", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.010006772255871134, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.819510931972472, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720187049937 | 100 | CharlieBauer | 1720151940000 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709850463261 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720150771472 | 1719664427961 | 0.01 | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o89zi07ubn | when-will-former-prime-minister-of | 518.3308914328974 | When will former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan be released from imprisonment? | 1764442740000 | iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719664353318 | PoliticalEconomyPK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "--> The option corresponding to the date** on which he is released and goes home as a free man will resolve this question to yes. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "--> If he is released from Adiyala jail and placed in house arrest, that will not resolve this answer to Yes. To get a yes, he has to be a free man afterwards.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "--> If he is released and is free to go, but is again arrested in a few days* this question will still be resolved to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*he has to be a free man for at least 48 hours", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "** All dates and time are according to Pakistan Standard Time (PKT)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.875216462062326, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 1000 | PoliticalEconomyPK | 1720243830746 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "o8isiqfwwn", "prob": 0.3573485544266139, "text": "July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 186.4224791143644, "userId": "iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 335.2599981339062, "textFts": "'2024':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "o89zi07ubn", "createdTime": 1719664353318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.1298576916906844, "month": 0.1298576916906844}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.1298576916906844, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.1298576916906844}, {"id": "aqjhvmexxl", "prob": 0.31001352501139395, "text": "between 1st August, 2024 and September 30, 2024", "index": 1, "poolNo": 167.5753134409124, "userId": "iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 372.9666304460632, "textFts": "'1st':2 '2024':4,8 '30':7 'august':3 'septemb':6", "contractId": "o89zi07ubn", "createdTime": 1719664353318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.05064677439253784, "month": 0.05064677439253784}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.05064677439253784, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.05064677439253784}, {"id": "en5oo1syjm", "prob": 0.10497839083680457, "text": "between 1st October 2024 and 31st December 2024", "index": 2, "poolNo": 85.61960184285287, "userId": "iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 729.9730278437067, "textFts": "'1st':2 '2024':4,8 '31st':6 'decemb':7 'octob':3", "contractId": "o89zi07ubn", "createdTime": 1719664353318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.06811993454826201, "month": -0.06811993454826201}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.06811993454826201, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.06811993454826201}, {"id": "iiqjx4rx63", "prob": 0.10765824936550945, "text": "between 1st January 2025 and 30th April 2025", "index": 3, "poolNo": 86.83564986853763, "userId": "iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 719.7504722383042, "textFts": "'1st':2 '2025':4,8 '30th':6 'april':7 'januari':3", "contractId": "o89zi07ubn", "createdTime": 1719664353318, "probChanges": {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.06451371778231729, "month": -0.06451371778231729}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.06451371778231729, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.06451371778231729}, {"id": "pa0qo6teoh", "prob": 0.12000128035967804, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 92.3191778976151, "userId": "iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 676.9990962150296, "textFts": "", "contractId": "o89zi07ubn", "createdTime": 1719664353318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.04787081375264293, "month": -0.04787081375264293}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.04787081375264293, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.04787081375264293}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704713497678 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720243827626 | 1720124008840 | True | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | ndbliuy2mg | {"NO": 105.80265471525853, "YES": 94.51558684337843} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-8niywwx0bo | 6 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 1 than it closed on June 28? | 1719809940000 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719668365148 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.19734528474147384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719864101900 | 100 | JimFix | 1719809940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719685430691 | 0.53 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kh9blbr6z3 | {"NO": 122.38083095216054, "YES": 81.71214333320779} | 0.5996327476762837 | biden-vs-trump-opinion-market | 135.69476184897826 | Biden vs Trump. Opinion market | 1722463140000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719669747835 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is meant to track the weights of opinions of Manifold users, not the probability of an outcome.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Market% value somewhere between elections and the end of the year. You decide how much to buy depending on your opinion strength and how worth it is to be represented on Manifold.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet Yes if you prefer Biden as a president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet No if you prefer Trump as a president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You may also bet between elections and the resolution to represent the sentiment \"society has made a mistake/ a right choice\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.056573654190353206, "week": 0.09963274767628372, "month": 0.09963274767628372} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.085013743976844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 15.365272448978404 | 100 | KongoLandwalker | 1720213876020 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720213872627 | 1719694578029 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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9rsmxp713s | how-many-seasons-will-hbos-house-of | 30 | How many seasons will HBOs House of the Dragon have? | 1767308340000 | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719671647023 | Jan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the amount of seasons after the show is decladed canceled or finished by the producers of the last season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution date is moved accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.34598434569815817, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Jan53274 | 1719762974420 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | 2 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "taxhc2jogo", "prob": 0.048658112525034686, "text": "2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.9979221267339025, "userId": "9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22", 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0.5 | tqliyl0zro | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | does-jemima-smell | 0 | Does Jemima Smell | 1719679337549 | l8bdOFKgUpemR4u4pyzOfFyIIph2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719679223796 | Max Bowman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719679337549 | 100 | MaxBowman | 1719679337549 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3NlLcOFfRXizyU4c2mcUQnfZT1FPRKoYFrZUrHnRuEcYClkUr=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719613231822 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | l8bdOFKgUpemR4u4pyzOfFyIIph2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | ug7m9a14l9 | {"NO": 1038.1462440810583, "YES": 794.5589601008847} | 0.1753919185598084 | will-you-can-just-spontaneously-cal | 108 | Will "You can just spontaneously call people you ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.807007322118215 | False | public | 1719679847345 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "You can just spontaneously call people you haven't met in years", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HawAteFsnyhfYpuD/you-can-just-spontaneously-call-people-you-haven-t-met-in", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03539191855980839, "month": 0.03539191855980839} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.348463207640026, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719694217435 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719694214352 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | h5zwvshdui | {"NO": 114.5260150371848, "YES": 87.31640576818427} | 0.5674030988144905 | will-any-weapons-get-third-kits-in | 15 | Will any weapons get third kits in Splatoon 3 by the end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719680087602 | Simon Westlake | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only kits playable in Turf War/Anarchy modes/X Battles count (e.g. no Grizzco kits or Side Order kits).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SimonWestlake | 1719680169579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717282220875 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719680166493 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | fpamun56jh | {"NO": 2093.117594820486, "YES": 477.75624383194946} | 0.8141658152768894 | after-grants-pass-scotus-decision-w | 1117 | After Grants Pass SCOTUS decision, will top-25 California city pass or enact rules to clear homeless encampments? (2024) | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.65706137514055 | False | basic | public | 1719682230438 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 28th, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in favor of Grants Pass, clearing the way for west coast cities to evict homeless encampments, without the need to provide for \"adequate housing\" or negotiate with homeless rights groups.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/crime/supreme-court-rules-on-june-28-cities-enforce-laws-against-homeless-encampments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/crime/supreme-court-rules-on-june-28-cities-enforce-laws-against-homeless-encampments", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyFc8d_7s6H.png?alt=media&token=12244d99-68aa-4720-b6d4-3de766741011", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This ruling was widely derided by homeless rights advocacy groups, and cheered by \"let's clean up San Francisco Twitter\" among others.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://x.com/garrytan/status/1806693120878563538", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/garrytan/status/1806693120878563538", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrF-Fl2_8-H.png?alt=media&token=5929503e-7716-4169-843a-6f1e5a6b4c97", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, will anything happen? Specifically in 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Here are the top 25 cities in California by population (minimum 180K -- but going off of this chart). Starting with Los Angeles, going down to Oxnard, Huntington Beach, Glendale and Ontario.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.california-demographics.com/cities_by_population", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.california-demographics.com/cities_by_population", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzY6LanB5FI.png?alt=media&token=c552a9bb-0040-4042-a440-ac9f78e874dc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any of these cities take a major action to evict homeless encampments in 2024? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolve YES if all of these happen", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " major news story about one of these 25 cities evicting significant homeless encampments (more than just a few people)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " confirmation from the city that this is a major operation and or different from pre-Grants Pass years", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " mention of Grants Pass or SCOTUS decision", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market can resolve either on local legislation or the action itself (since the cities could cite previous rules that were simply not enforced because of homeless advocacy rights before Grants Pass).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In simpler terms, will there be a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "specific major action", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " taken by one of these 25 cities, in 2024, related to evicting homeless encampments, affecting more than just a few people, that is reported in the news, and referencing this SCOTUS case.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there is such clear action, the market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.31416581527688936, "month": 0.31416581527688936} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.882405179514382, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719725077570 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719725074462 | 1719688218044 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
q7ienliwei | did-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-in | 0 | Did Donald Trump spank Joe Biden in the debate? | 1720328340000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719689229708 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spank = beat Joe in the debate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-i", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1719689229753 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ei5h4c71gy | if-biden-drops-out-how-will-polymar | 8121.87970419518 | If Biden drops out, how will Polymarket price the presidential election 1 week later? | 1725163140000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.027905880112598 | False | play | public | 1719691879740 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using the party market because it is cleaner with only two options. As of writing, the market says a 62.5% chance for Republicans.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1719691644811", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1719691644811", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.859647925925955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720153592184 | 0 | 11 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yxz8hhxg9y", "prob": 0.05363482084853882, "text": ">60% chance for Ds", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.49898997374945, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.38289687834425, "textFts": 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d187ndqihp | who-will-win-the-2024-austrian-gran | 2885.9887441560472 | Who will win the 2024 Austrian Grand Prix | 1719762254667 | cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 48g1x4d1dq | public | 1719693448470 | Jemima Bowman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.580517865270426, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719762254667 | 100 | JemimaBowman | 1719762254667 | 0 | 12 | 12 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5it1airx0l", "prob": 0.0016665814776667695, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1794644293546916, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 706.535366894676, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "d187ndqihp", "resolverId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "createdTime": 1719693448470, "probChanges": {"day": -0.24833341852233323, "week": -0.24833341852233323, "month": -0.24833341852233323}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.24833341852233323, "probChangeWeek": -0.24833341852233323, "resolutionTime": 1719762254667, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24833341852233323}, {"id": "agnc72b2sr", "prob": 0.001312437512902582, "text": "Lando Norris", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0464870873395782, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 796.3149697832213, "textFts": "'lando':1 'norri':2", "contractId": "d187ndqihp", "resolverId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "createdTime": 1719693448470, "probChanges": {"day": -0.24868756248709742, "week": -0.24868756248709742, "month": -0.24868756248709742}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.24868756248709742, "probChangeWeek": -0.24868756248709742, "resolutionTime": 1719762254667, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24868756248709742}, {"id": "80yjuh18kt", "prob": 0.001436533172304711, "text": "Oscar Piastri", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.0949123894152422, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 761.0959026396681, "textFts": "'oscar':1 'piastri':2", "contractId": "d187ndqihp", "resolverId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "createdTime": 1719693448470, "probChanges": {"day": -0.24856346682769528, "week": -0.24856346682769528, "month": -0.24856346682769528}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.24856346682769528, "probChangeWeek": -0.24856346682769528, "resolutionTime": 1719762254667, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.24856346682769528}, {"id": "48g1x4d1dq", "prob": 0.995584447837126, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 433.46687921752385, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.9224844464186743, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d187ndqihp", "resolverId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "createdTime": 1719693448470, "probChanges": {"day": 0.745584447837126, "week": 0.745584447837126, "month": 0.745584447837126}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.745584447837126, "probChangeWeek": 0.745584447837126, "resolutionTime": 1719762254667, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.745584447837126}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719677158549 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719762032787 | 1719758355655 | {"48g1x4d1dq": 100} | cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72 | True | 0 |
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