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0.5000000000000008 | aaeahj0fw4 | {"NO": 1286.1444748005138, "YES": 777.5176269797404} | 0.623234042865351 | will-michelle-obama-wins-against-do | 2456.91271986835 | Will Michelle Obama wins against Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election | 1731797940000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580192122802965 | False | basic | public | 1719586025197 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this is a Hypothetical Match-Up Michelle Obama and Donald Trump must be the nominees if not this market resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.09654316238552207, "month": 0.123234042865351} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.08657434043259, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Base | 1720007781761 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720007778706 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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x9l3hbf0u4 | which-number-is-the-biggest | 101.49986026394382 | Which number is the biggest? | 1722225540000 | 3WfCg9X8JHXOzdc4fwNyapF3wAa2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719588339129 | Gabriel Tellez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4773448127197257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GabrielTellez | 1719831794267 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7DMpNFr5hrYguTVGKWEOzj5FB-9HYE3YJVy4A9=s96-c | 3 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "gyejjsbdxv", "prob": 0.06586610050944126, "text": "17", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.937606494507577, "userId": "3WfCg9X8JHXOzdc4fwNyapF3wAa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.20901594986316, "textFts": "'17':1", "contractId": "x9l3hbf0u4", "createdTime": 1719588339129, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.10080056... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671802493742 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719621543728 | 1719831792946 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n0tt8zm5zu | which-of-the-following-california-c-qv30ww61bv | 250 | Which of the following California cities will break all-time temperature records in the first half of July? | 1720076340000 | pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719590729916 | Jordan Remaker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to suggest more cities or correct errors!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A possible record-breaking heat wave could reach Northern California and the Central Valley in the first wee... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JordanRemaker | 1720007628962 | 0 | 2 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "nr65kguouo", "prob": 0.3931377340057284, "text": "Fresno (Current record: 115F)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 80.48728868088463, "userId": "pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 124.2432210587677, "textFts": "'115f':4 'current':2 'fresno':1 'record':3", "contractId": "n0tt8zm5zu", "createdTime"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705282458762 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720007625672 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | mv0bubtdim | {"NO": 998.5551234664815, "YES": 1001.446967222503} | 0.49927703981673727 | will-social-security-become-insolve | 589.3407243876878 | Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040? | 2209103940000 | A6WRayk8RmNpyx34WBKKdJCt4F83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333664275072 | False | basic | public | 1719593309559 | C3PO the Dragon Slayer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point before 2040 the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is unable to make timely payments due to insufficient reserves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "T... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.010257847056873992, "month": -0.000722960183262733} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.85857159513503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | C3POtheDragonSlayer | 1719811998621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7d229VN6EVq3TTznucx41aQTm4sj4xwy1C1PGQ=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673537046654 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719811995171 | 1719594678129 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | x3fhwwlibv | {"NO": 45.25696378552538, "YES": 220.96047024697472} | 0 | will-taylor-swift-announce-reputati-fdmove8y8l | 187.15244185768884 | Will Taylor Swift announce Reputation TV during one of her Dublin shows? | 1719813058002 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719593432190 | Sara | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taylor is in Dublin, Ireland from 28th-30th June 2024 for her Eras Tour. Will she announce Reputation TV during one of her Ireland shows?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.17000000000000137, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8065316720463085, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719813058002 | 100 | csgoldie | 1719813058002 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717185599667 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719610277836 | 0.17 | XjQkiHiqafYpjWGxR0PVmY8vGbI3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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9pn8l739v9 | conditional-upon-the-democratic-par | 9716.33671627697 | Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election? | 1731196740000 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.173160512882429 | False | basic | public | 1719602272833 | Hamish Todd | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The New York Times (democrat supporters) has suggested that the Democrats should replace Biden:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html?pvid=YUPYrCnXb_Z... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 154.62080928890276, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 128 | 1000 | HamishTodd | 1720244058950 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 89 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "z28u0lw03n", "prob": 0.44416935886395204, "text": "Biden is replaced and the democrats win", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 446.96452986236596, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 559.3284999079972, "textFts": "'biden':1 'democrat':6 'replac':3 'win':7", "contractI... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644109710077 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720244055866 | 1720043093235 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | g7xq2on23y | {"NO": 118.00128324688276, "YES": 8474.484111395619} | 0.01373307929280365 | will-joe-biden-run-for-a-second-non | 9843.484782251604 | Will Joe Biden run for a second non-consecutive presidential term in 2028? | 1735718340000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.858815384144425 | False | basic | public | 1719602920658 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 0.0037330792928036427, "month": -0.48626692070719635} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.05486127110156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndrewG | 1719962610862 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1654655993992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719962607375 | 1719612277673 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | v7f6tc6acp | {"NO": 43.42315861261752, "YES": 230.29186082963324} | 0.1586436824004065 | will-the-lancet-retract-the-pace-tr | 133 | Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030 | 1893884340000 | FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719610059068 | Yann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3413563175995935} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.708139170366776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Yann | 1719612493411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719606448794 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719612489964 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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le6ymw7u08 | is-committing-a-really-big-financia | 0 | Is "Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)" worse than committing a financial crime? | 1720217794228 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719614432540 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/worse-than-committing-a-financial-c", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720217820204 | KeenenW | 1720217796208 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | ["jib7c41img"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u2w4ypgp4c | who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke | 118764.03910568875 | Who will earn the most mana at poker night? | 1719627746320 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.3873130204538136 | True | plus | hgq4hcbqqq | public | 1719615149138 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 841.9145764510621, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719627746320 | 14000 | SG | 1719686682211 | 0 | 13 | 12 | ANYONE | [{"id": "hspfajrnq2", "prob": 0.0023781551139151836, "text": "@SG", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.01347944615866, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37760.11619437838, "textFts": "'sg':1", "contractId": "u2w4ypgp4c", "resolverId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "createdTime": 17196151491... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639156540325 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719627384599 | 1719686681097 | {"hgq4hcbqqq": 100} | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dcjh9gp9y3 | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-increase-fr | 1517.2652329984421 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) increase from the previous day? | 1720458000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719615260710 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.23210532536454, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 472.5086994311464 | 2400 | KeenenW | 1720217200784 | 0 | 8 | 6 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "axuxo45tyn", "prob": 0.42, "text": "July 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 85.0962943396763, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.51393027860064, "textFts": "'1':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "dcjh9gp9y3", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720196897349 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zly3cljjel | which-days-will-apple-increase | 3206.162173527803 | Which days will Apple increase? | 1720458000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719616030816 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aa... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.854346227377818, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 821.4828867724676 | 2400 | KeenenW | 1720217150548 | 0 | 8 | 4 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "4react8xwf", "prob": 0.93, "text": "July 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 378.0545281870493, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.45121074982155, "textFts": "'1':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "zly3cljjel", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "createdTim... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720196979558 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ab3pvzwnrq | which-deck-will-win-pro-tour-modern | 635.2820262607659 | Which deck will win Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3? | 1719764141776 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | ggo6bk6nzu | public | 1719618829560 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official metagame breakdown", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://magic.gg/news/pro-tour-modern-horizons-3-metagame-breakdown", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.483562152337759, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719764141776 | 100 | Ziddletwix | 1719784304838 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ggo6bk6nzu", "prob": 0.9899314566779199, "text": "(Bant OR Four-color) Nadu", "index": 0, "poolNo": 175.28479770655886, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7828129084140585, "textFts": "'bant':1 'color':5 'four':4 'four-color':3 'nadu':6", "contractId": "ab3pvzwnrq", "resol... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719754826193 | 1719784303359 | {"ggo6bk6nzu": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ef882zwka | {"NO": 72.01092159232209, "YES": 138.8678241977424} | 0.34148022515275633 | will-slasher-win-his-bet-with-dan-t | 40 | Will Dan win his (proposed) bet with Slasher that the Captain Disrespect logs will leak by the end of the year? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719620588230 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if captain disrespect's logs leak by the end of 2024 by my judgement, resolves NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "happens even if Slasher and Dan do not agree on terms o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.15851977484724367, "month": -0.15851977484724367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1321758022575794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719672291217 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719672288142 | 1719620783528 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 97akxlkxz2 | {"NO": 82.55621292741925, "YES": 121.1295872885021} | 0.4053115771443263 | at-the-end-of-juneteenth-2025-june | 165.22254849848238 | At the end of Juneteenth 2025 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin? | 1750391940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719620957495 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The total amount of mnana sold (USD) in the last 30 days has to be higher than the minimum Bitcon price on the day this resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Mana sold: ", "type": "text"},... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.00702622167826894, "month": -0.09468842285567369} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.647864213015508, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719989396021 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719989392878 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | odbafhkhv6 | {"NO": 149.22692225145133, "YES": 67.01203676337792} | 0 | if-celene-gets-injected-with-24mg-e | 220.74723940898483 | If Celene gets injected with 2-4mg estrogen will she feel inexplicably better the next day | 1719993958688 | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1719622224504 | Celene | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Off estrogen rn due to multiple emotional breakdowns, now I'm severely depressed which might just be a random depressive episode or might be due to being off estrogen. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5900000000000001, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.591819298507374, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719993958688 | 100 | Celene | 1719993958688 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677632865523 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719774108045 | 1719680166381 | 0.69 | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | z64vr8zokm | {"NO": 56.14165957046869, "YES": 178.12084780728745} | 0.23965277328795256 | will-teflon-or-other-related-nonsti-k9sssb368o | 155.06375022034595 | Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027? | 1830315540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719623130793 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done at the federal level , not just a state banning it ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10182741715361557, "month": -0.26034722671204746} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.134944277135213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719808993179 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808989777 | 1719670174120 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | kwtniv62yh | {"NO": 73.96581355533264, "YES": 135.1975935817856} | 0.3536269301008466 | will-the-second-presidential-debate | 371.56045636420424 | Will the second presidential debate between Trump and Biden take place on Sept. 10? | 1726005540000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719676515541 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if the second debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden takes place as scheduled. Resolves No otherwise, for example if the date changes, if the debate participants are not Trump and Biden or if there is another debate at a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.14637306989915339, "month": -0.14637306989915339} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.00610768676352, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MartyDettmann | 1720023311765 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720023308356 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | tqliyl0zro | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | does-jemima-smell | 0 | Does Jemima Smell | 1719679337549 | l8bdOFKgUpemR4u4pyzOfFyIIph2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719679223796 | Max Bowman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719679337549 | 100 | MaxBowman | 1719679337549 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3NlLcOFfRXizyU4c2mcUQnfZT1FPRKoYFrZUrHnRuEcYClkUr=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719613231822 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | l8bdOFKgUpemR4u4pyzOfFyIIph2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | ug7m9a14l9 | {"NO": 1038.1462440810583, "YES": 794.5589601008847} | 0.1753919185598084 | will-you-can-just-spontaneously-cal | 108 | Will "You can just spontaneously call people you ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.807007322118215 | False | public | 1719679847345 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03539191855980839, "month": 0.03539191855980839} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.348463207640026, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719694217435 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719694214352 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | h5zwvshdui | {"NO": 114.5260150371848, "YES": 87.31640576818427} | 0.5674030988144905 | will-any-weapons-get-third-kits-in | 15 | Will any weapons get third kits in Splatoon 3 by the end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719680087602 | Simon Westlake | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only kits playable in Turf War/Anarchy modes/X Battles count (e.g. no Grizzco kits or Side Order kits).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SimonWestlake | 1719680169579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717282220875 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719680166493 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | fpamun56jh | {"NO": 2093.117594820486, "YES": 477.75624383194946} | 0.8141658152768894 | after-grants-pass-scotus-decision-w | 1117 | After Grants Pass SCOTUS decision, will top-25 California city pass or enact rules to clear homeless encampments? (2024) | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.65706137514055 | False | basic | public | 1719682230438 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 28th, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in favor of Grants Pass, clearing the way for west coast cities to evict homeless encampments, without the need to provide for \"adequate housing\" or negotiate with homeless rights groups.", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.31416581527688936, "month": 0.31416581527688936} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.882405179514382, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719725077570 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719725074462 | 1719688218044 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
q7ienliwei | did-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-in | 0 | Did Donald Trump spank Joe Biden in the debate? | 1720328340000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719689229708 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spank = beat Joe in the debate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-donal... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1719689229753 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o9dvwuecxt | in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high | 11565.362947557316 | In Austin, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded? | 1722401940000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719689731480 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes one minute before midnight on the penultimate day of the month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be resolved on the first day of the next month with data from"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 150.59007120382353, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3100 | ovals | 1720147450435 | 0 | 10 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d39rudvhrp", "prob": 0.01, "text": "1st", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.050378152592089, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 994.9874371066187, "textFts": "'1st':1", "contractId": "o9dvwuecxt", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTime": 171968... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720147446904 | 1720099411542 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
udpvaq1muc | after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc | 6150 | After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge? | 1719766740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | pslg7f283n | public | 1719690214612 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.200204607997621, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719775082720 | 1100 | ovals | 1719766740000 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "49sdzzp5op", "prob": 0.0010119118118181755, "text": "Giulio Ciccone", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.535461917491602, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5464.765262753007, "textFts": "'ciccon':2 'giulio':1", "contractId": "udpvaq1muc", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719760437980 | 1719690400286 | {"pslg7f283n": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d0zp3sntf7 | after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo | 8456.570234662855 | After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert? | 1719766740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | mtauwxl1gd | public | 1719690270495 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.831318694202043, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719766762174 | 1100 | ovals | 1719766740000 | 0 | 6 | 6 | ANYONE | [{"id": "zrz1h0apdc", "prob": 0.000751689491625653, "text": "Mark Cavendish", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.770294786648265, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6341.327182686015, "textFts": "'cavendish':2 'mark':1", "contractId": "d0zp3sntf7", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719761481902 | 1719733819800 | {"mtauwxl1gd": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ei5h4c71gy | if-biden-drops-out-how-will-polymar | 8121.87970419518 | If Biden drops out, how will Polymarket price the presidential election 1 week later? | 1725163140000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.027905880112598 | False | play | public | 1719691879740 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using the party market because it is cleaner with only two options. As of writing, the market says a 62.5% chance for Republicans.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.859647925925955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SemioticRivalry | 1720153592184 | 0 | 11 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yxz8hhxg9y", "prob": 0.05363482084853882, "text": ">60% chance for Ds", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.49898997374945, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.38289687834425, "textFts": "'60':1 'chanc':2 'ds':4", "contractId": "ei5h4c71gy", "createdTime": 1719691879740, "probChanges"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720153589036 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d187ndqihp | who-will-win-the-2024-austrian-gran | 2885.9887441560472 | Who will win the 2024 Austrian Grand Prix | 1719762254667 | cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 48g1x4d1dq | public | 1719693448470 | Jemima Bowman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.580517865270426, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719762254667 | 100 | JemimaBowman | 1719762254667 | 0 | 12 | 12 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5it1airx0l", "prob": 0.0016665814776667695, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1794644293546916, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 706.535366894676, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "d187ndqihp", "resolverId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72",... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719677158549 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719762032787 | 1719758355655 | {"48g1x4d1dq": 100} | cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72 | True | 0 |
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