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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
smffxeg4r4 | -polya-urn-game-will-a-green-ball-b | 206.95061647063565 | 🟢🔴 Polya urn game: Will a green ball be drawn on ... ? | 1721512740000 | QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719693903235 | M L | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting July 3 with an urn containing one green ball and one red ball, I will use @FairlyRandom to draw one ball uniformly at random from the urn. If it is green (1), \"July 3\" will resolve as YES, if it is red (2), \"July 3\" will resolve as NO. The ball is then returned in the urn, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and an additional ball of the same color is added to the urn", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". So, on July 4, there are three balls in the urn, and so on.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria so far:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1: green - YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2: red - NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3: red - NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4: red - NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5: red - NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6: [color of the ball drawn on July 6]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "7: [color of the ball drawn on July 7]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will aim to resolve each option between 11:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on the specified day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.597125893899813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 6.741557747956096 | 110 | ML12d1 | 1720245821748 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c | 3 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "w88qrxnnip", "prob": 0.5, "text": "July 3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.996287879168094, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.003712672107376, "textFts": "'3':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "smffxeg4r4", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "createdTime": 1719693903235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1720015287466, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "9l9rry4bpq", "prob": 0.33, "text": "July 4", "index": 1, "poolNo": 17.523523688461463, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.66634263242029, "textFts": "'4':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "smffxeg4r4", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "createdTime": 1719693903235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1720091975729, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.33}, {"id": "v84o9s7vjx", "prob": 0.25, "text": "July 5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 14.433756729740647, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.30127018922194, "textFts": "'5':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "smffxeg4r4", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "createdTime": 1719693903235, "probChanges": {"day": -0.27991274852977854, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.27991274852977854, "probChangeWeek": -0.5, "resolutionTime": 1720197314667, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.25}, {"id": "aemwkuk8p5", "prob": 0.23, "text": "July 6", "index": 3, "poolNo": 13.663393125000525, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.742663940219146, "textFts": "'6':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "smffxeg4r4", "createdTime": 1719693903235, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04467885338749458, "week": -0.27, "month": -0.27}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04467885338749458, "probChangeWeek": -0.27, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.27}, {"id": "yzm02k7hgh", "prob": 0.22, "text": "July 7", "index": 4, "poolNo": 5.310850045437944, "userId": "QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.82937743382544, "textFts": "'7':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "smffxeg4r4", "createdTime": 1720088182886, "probChanges": {"day": -0.029999999999999916, "week": -0.28, "month": -0.28}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.029999999999999916, "probChangeWeek": -0.28, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": -0.28}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706799245162 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720197282179 | 1720197062775 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | p5k9vaxh3h | {"NO": 501.2046626272388, "YES": 1995.1929312831028} | 0.2007711687632878 | nvidia-to-the-moon | 1702.3006594998574 | NVIDIA to the moon? | 2019769140000 | TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.645956463661225 | False | basic | public | 1719694972794 | Symmetry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if, by 2035, an official NVIDIA company mission lands on the moon. This can be part of a ridesharing mission or a dedicated NVIDIA mission. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Payload can be purely symbolic, such as a single chip. A crashlanding counts as a landing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Orbiting the moon without landing on it does not count. A private trip to the moon by company employees does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2992288312367122, "month": -0.2992288312367122} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.380509852614914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Symmetry | 1719857589413 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692197875451 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719857586019 | 1719695951401 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hffqvhmy8i | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-5izovkdrho | 6036.703839065315 | When will a tropical storm be named Debby in 2024? | 1722322740000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719697500110 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves EST. Subtropical storms also count", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.570104022932945, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 792.9145887057022 | 1200 | SaviorofPlant | 1720235044344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 5 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "mv95der9mk", "prob": 0.0030540794626344302, "text": "June 30", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.075473539689325, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3615.376842188759, "textFts": "'30':2 'june':1", "contractId": "hffqvhmy8i", "createdTime": 1719697500110, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0031916366899065332, "week": -0.09553146189670655, "month": -0.09553146189670655}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0031916366899065332, "probChangeWeek": -0.09553146189670655, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.09553146189670655}, {"id": "g9ox2127cr", "prob": 0.0032172508114146326, "text": "July 1", 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-0.003666370098068269, "probChangeWeek": -0.09515918804826112, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.09515918804826112}, {"id": "pkov7bnho3", "prob": 0.004238936476830452, "text": "July 3", "index": 3, "poolNo": 13.48655692518479, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3168.103211853089, "textFts": "'3':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "hffqvhmy8i", "createdTime": 1719697500110, "probChanges": {"day": -0.006380397188765077, "week": -0.09337230027765846, "month": -0.09337230027765846}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.006380397188765077, "probChangeWeek": -0.09337230027765846, "totalLiquidity": 166.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": -0.09337230027765846}, {"id": "5j0kyxlrhr", "prob": 0.004622648692455836, "text": "July 4", "index": 4, "poolNo": 14.220686750172497, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3062.0863606317025, "textFts": "'4':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "hffqvhmy8i", 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0.5 | y8vwa8g931 | {"NO": 104.8347768930421, "YES": 95.38819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-sorcerer-in-dark-and-darker-be | 5 | Will Sorcerer in Dark and Darker be released before Halloween (Oct 31st) 2024? | 1730433540000 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719697547480 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Sorcerer class be released before Oct 31st 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if it appears on playtest or main servers for testing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it is still unaccessible for public", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.023590158543515094, "month": 0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Blomfilter | 1719697630192 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677201572009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719697627115 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | vei7k1tg2e | {"NO": 3168.2393552410017, "YES": 315.6327183253276} | 0.9094017484969751 | will-the-democratic-presidential-ca-9a5c2dfo83 | 3829.6105465520586 | Will the Democratic presidential candidate be either Joe Biden, or his chosen successor? | 1735711140000 | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.788440683855395 | False | basic | public | 1719698806668 | Zane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Democratic candidate for president is Joe Biden. Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses someone else for president, and that person later becomes the Democratic candidate. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am only counting the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "first", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " person (other than himself) that Biden endorses for president. This market still resolves NO if, for example, Biden drops out and endorses Harris, but Newsom beats Harris at the convention, and Biden then changes his endorsement to Newsom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is difficult to determine who, if anyone, should be considered the \"Democratic candidate\" - such as if Biden drops out in late October, and the Democrats are divided between multiple candidates - I will resolve YES only if the person endorsed by Biden receives more electoral votes than all other Democratic candidates combined, and NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*edit July 4th: \"and that person becomes the Democratic candidate\" -> \"and that person later becomes the Democratic candidate\"; clarifying that the endorsement must come before them being selected as the candidate", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.4094017484969751, "month": 0.4094017484969751} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.09205545039294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZaneMiller | 1720120550328 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669859805273 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720015828326 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | ia3wsfijct | {"NO": 1501.581892076922, "YES": 665.9643441869462} | 0.6927565682128892 | will-despicable-me-4-2024-be-the-lo | 1163.276312043015 | Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M) | 1725778740000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.564751308224666 | False | basic | public | 1719699860023 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2603516673/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Franchise (worldwide) grosses:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despicable Me: $543,239,815", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2018477569/?ref_=bo_fr_table_5", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minions: The Rise of Gru: $940,203,765", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1736214017/?ref_=bo_fr_table_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despicable Me 2: $970,766,005", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl105874945/?ref_=bo_fr_table_2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despicable Me 3: $1,034,799,409", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl122652161/?ref_=bo_fr_table_4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minions: $1,159,398,397", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2271380993/?ref_=bo_fr_table_3", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Minions: The Rise of Gru\" is currently the lowest grossing of the franchise since the 2015 original (which only grossed $543M). This market resolves YES if \"Despicable me 4\" (2024) grosses less than $940,203,765 within ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3 months", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of release (September 7th). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (\"WORLDWIDE\", on the main page).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the result seems mathematically certain, I reserve the right to resolve the market early. To formalize this, I'll consider resolving YES if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross for the remaining duration isn't sufficient to cross the threshold.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.02930722198463709, "week": 0.19275656821288922, "month": 0.19275656821288922} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.100831950867956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 379.4915996644485 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720209850834 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720209847801 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | naw423wgyb | {"NO": 953.8818087167327, "YES": 1048.3479094179506} | 0.4764097746013819 | would-over-20-of-global-fashion-rev | 50 | Would over 20% of global fashion revenue come from virtual cosmetics by 2030? | 1925531940000 | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679453336952 | False | basic | public | 1719700694776 | Quillist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assuming current trends and ratios remain relatively static, this will resolve via comparing global apparel and footwear market, with global virtual goods market", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023590225398618103, "month": -0.023590225398618103} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6520905820492344, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quillist | 1719759116861 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702722697077 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719759113810 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | x2qr6f7kl1 | {"NO": 1882.9377433825398, "YES": 531.0850045437955} | 0.7799999999999994 | will-chappell-roan-reach-35-million | 1848.201511323663 | Will Chappell Roan reach >35 million monthly listeners on Spotify during July? (Current: 26M, up from 1M in January) | 1721285940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63360206760391 | False | basic | public | 1719701665998 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since January, Chappell Roan has enjoyed a shocking surge in popularity (without even releasing a new album): ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhIYvYgwU6p.png?alt=media&token=ca36a2ff-b1b4-4b2a-868a-de574ebb53e7", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this exponential growth continues, soon she'll have trillions of monthly listeners.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the meantime, will she reach >35 million monthly listeners on Spotify before the end of July? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of question creation, she has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "26,321,750 monthly listeners on Spotify", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/7GlBOeep6PqTfFi59PTUUN", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close for trading on July 17th (with two weeks remaining).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.03999999999999937, "week": 0.27999999999999936, "month": 0.27999999999999936} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.32655415055891, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 576.3721082369461 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720195253501 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720195250419 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | q7h75rwz5g | {"NO": 983.6858715195124, "YES": 10.165846932977615} | 1 | will-hurricane-beryl-become-a-cat2 | 1143.86745831748 | Will Hurricane Beryl become At least (CAT-2) category 2 Hurricane? | 1719765721488 | iPZAno1gF0P3yl96iRDNs2PGyLo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719702470966 | Russell McCready | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hurricane Beryl is a new storm heading and increasing in wind speed, but will it conquer CAT-1?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Beryl is the seasons first Hurricane, promising a not-so friendly future for residents in the area.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of June 29th, 2024 the estimated damages is around >$1M USD and rising!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote YES if you think the category will be updated to at least 2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote NO if you do not think the category will be updated to at least 2.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.425786295280657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719765721488 | 100 | RussellMcCready | 1719765721488 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLEAROsvsJW88p3zbGq1Nt9z8dmDT03k28xnxibLG4UtEB_7w=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719702281981 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719762308039 | 1719725528091 | 0.99 | iPZAno1gF0P3yl96iRDNs2PGyLo2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | h9isquulpn | {"NO": 1023.5963884274009, "YES": 866.5239427285529} | 0.16128443744304985 | will-the-witching-hour-make-the-top | 25 | Will "The Witching Hour" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.880147391721664 | False | public | 1719703430526 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Witching Hour", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oGJT5CoyGQcy5nqmC/the-witching-hour-1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.021284437443049836, "month": 0.021284437443049836} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4036115725990623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719718915102 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719718911756 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 7cu6jujd72 | {"NO": 665.5667505636555, "YES": 1502.4789011066428} | 0.3069892693684251 | will-any-of-these-10-pundits-apolog | 2139.0848194468736 | Will any of these 10 pundits apologize by end of August for calling for Biden to drop out? | 1725173940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59625333228868 | False | basic | public | 1719703831032 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many political commentators and pundits (who previously supported Biden) have called for Biden to drop out immediately following the debate. However, Democratic politicians have stuck by Biden publicly so far, creating the impression that maybe the preference cascade will stop at pundits. Will it reverse enough that someone apologizes?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The pundits (I based the list entirely on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this Politico article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/29/biden-debate-2024-campaign-drop-out-step-aside-00165914", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tom Nichols", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/06/the-end-of-the-biden-era/678851/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ron Brownstein", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Franklin Foer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/democrat-biden-trump-debate/678823/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nicholas Kristof", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/opinion/joe-biden-drop-out.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paul Krugman", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/25/opinion/thepoint/krugman-biden-must-withdraw?smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thomas Friedman", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maureen Dowd", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/29/opinion/biden-debate-president-exit.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "David Axelrod", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-fairway-with-david-plouffe/id1467297559?i=1000660586601", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "David Plouffe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-fairway-with-david-plouffe/id1467297559?i=1000660586601", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "David Ignatius", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/28/david-ignatius-biden-trump-debate-age/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An apology must happen before Election Day to count. I will use best judgement to determine what counts as apologizing. Saying \"I regret calling for Biden to drop out\" would count; I won't require that they literally say they were sorry.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be going based off what is linked in the comments of this market. If an apology is not linked there, I may miss it!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.19301073063157492, "month": -0.19301073063157492} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.8197299038537, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Conflux | 1719997299836 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719997296747 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | yvuoqwrc7l | {"NO": 382.1152095877278, "YES": 26.17011767416743} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-eap25jgpxg | 341.5812628989501 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 3 than it closed on June 28 (5460.48)? | 1720026148181 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719707229258 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.463013910709802, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720026148181 | 100 | JimFix | 1720026148181 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720024833792 | 0.94 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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"8mrg459eq3", "prob": 0.047307234639539925, "text": "Other", "index": 55, "poolNo": 84.13254644854536, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1694.2962095249948, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2egu6xdxz2", "createdTime": 1719725142010, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03556348435109311, "week": 0.030110208386748424, "month": 0.030110208386748424}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.03556348435109311, "probChangeWeek": 0.030110208386748424, "totalLiquidity": 377.55192297941556, "probChangeMonth": 0.030110208386748424}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720245690310 | 1720236830438 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.681292311187957 | dei4ssmcwz | {"NO": 17591.688320904494, "YES": 7070.233948575425} | 0.8417424170259453 | will-biden-finish-his-term | 89605.10923868543 | Will Biden finish his term? | 1737370740000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2883487359421992 | False | plus | public | 1719729720157 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clone of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president?tid=1719729460020", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president?tid=1719729460020", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will not resolve \"Yes\" until the presidency is successfully transferred from Biden to another person at the completion of his term on January 20, 2024, or until Biden is sworn into the presidency again on that date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves identically to the Polymarket market. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.045999451556760995, "week": 0.3417424170259453, "month": 0.3417424170259453} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1093.2448630160964, "platformFee": 93.24486301609649, "liquidityFee": 0} | 7773.826613615107 | 10000 | jim | 1720245115416 | 0 | 207 | 44 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720245112371 | 1720181631789 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 49kj79szgz | {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066189} | 0.009999999999999986 | biden-drops-out-before-july-5 | 1271.0284352076012 | BIden drops out before July 5? | 1720411140000 | 8sb7vUqpyDa9vjnxokzEBTMIAP73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719731020352 | Dialethia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden drops out, pauses, or is otherwise unable to continue his campaign (death, etc.) before July 5th at midnight central time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": -0.49, "month": -0.49} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.143432019948287, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Dialethia | 1720115536653 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVxcvHrwSFHXKbkByqCdx2oNtHSDL0u7fGJvBd1w5WGWDOGA=s96-c | 5 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713946675676 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720115533366 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4067364037406563 | 4eqtxxfqbz | {"NO": 529.2850383043818, "YES": 692.1599405933682} | 0.34394487053569306 | will-transgender-us-passports-with | 3495.8750443966555 | Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? | 1767340740000 | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.158641491704515 | False | play | public | 1719731026859 | Jessica Evans | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? By any means, including legislative or administrative.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.015017293997072079, "week": -0.15605512946430694, "month": -0.15605512946430694} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.32868470394587, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 210 | 600 | JessicaEvans | 1720232945974 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | 40 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695341020374 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720232942893 | 1720113652897 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ftlsloshkq | {"NO": 728.5803416080454, "YES": 1372.5322286254752} | 1 | time-machine-coin-flip-45 | 1779.9361562940846 | Time Machine Coin Flip 4/5 | 1719989940000 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585969271518774 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719731093558 | Interrobang | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5 coins flips, 1 yes/no question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm making 5 of these markets over what was originally supposed to be 10 days but which has turned into 15 days due to a scheduling mishap.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heads - Yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tails - No", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The coins are predetermined, and you can ask one (1) yes/no question about them by PMing me (Interrobang) in the Manifold messenger.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Response guaranteed in 14 hours or your money back!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the first market for slightly more details ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/time-machine-coin-flip-coin-1?r=SW50ZXJyb2Jhbmc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.067735192415945, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720032146077 | 1000 | Interrobang | 1719989940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | 6 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716758434952 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719979734454 | 0.35 | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 79g9dwueqk | {"NO": 1876.3018194306446, "YES": 532.9632949476359} | 0.7787859493888996 | conditional-on-donald-trump-winning | 1486.968197338411 | Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028? | 1735649940000 | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632886207755831 | False | basic | public | 1719731489315 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By free and fair election I mean an election that is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not much less free and fair ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "than the election held in 2020. This will be resolved by a poll on Manifold after the 2028 election. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market NA's if Donald Trump doesn't win.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.27878594938889956, "month": 0.27878594938889956} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.60616797688539, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PhilosophyBear | 1719862757232 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719862754038 | 1719760743581 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 96tqdds8xq | {"NO": 1126.2135222445938, "YES": 887.931089663135} | 0.5591522652278096 | if-bidens-polymarket-odds-of-droppi | 170 | If Biden dropping out odds increase by >30% in a day, will Polymarket odds of a Trump win decrease that day? | 1731477540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572527964983918 | False | basic | public | 1719731529167 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden‘s odds of dropping out in this market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), never rises by over 30% from the beginning (12 AM Pacific Time) to the end of a calendar day ( 11:59 PM PT) after June 29th, 2024 (market creation), resolves NA. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") at the beginning of the first day after June 29th with the 30% increase in Biden’s odds of dropping out (12 am PT on that day) is lower than at the end of the day (11:59 PM PT on that day). Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden's odds of dropping out never increase by over 30% in a single day since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.059152265227809586, "month": 0.059152265227809586} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.493151767973475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1719798845680 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719761369626 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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t14j138nsb | will-major-ai-research-institutions | 235 | Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027? | 1830293940000 | iDqujVOHHyZpSkzndtHEcrzbdzT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719738373443 | Daniel Polak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " As advanced AI could pose existential risks and also reshape labour markets leading to inequality, this question examines whether by December 31, 2027 top AI governance research institutions (listed below) will emphasize tax strategies for AI to address mentioned challenges . ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These strategies might include e.g. taxing AI operations, data usage, and compute resources as means to manage AI development costs and mitigate associated risks. The focus is on whether and how research institutions addresses AI's economic and safety implications through innovative tax policies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, by the end of 2027, any of the top research non-profits", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "dealing with AI governance (listed below), publicly commits to prioritizing tax policy research focused on AI's impact on labour, inequality or safety. Acceptable indicators include announcements of new research initiatives, research papers, funding for specific studies on AI taxation, or the establishment of teams dedicated to exploring these fiscal strategies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This excludes any announcements from international bodies such as the UN, OECD, or EU, as well as US think tanks like CSET or RAND.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "AI governance research non-profits:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open Philanthropy", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alignment Research Center", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rethink Priorities", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Epoch AI", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Center for AI Safety (CAIS)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Legal Priorities Project (Institute for Law & AI)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apollo Research", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Centre for Long-Term Resilience", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI Impacts", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.46304330807361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanielPolak | 1719834899210 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "245onartx7", "prob": 0.5393478491893857, "text": "Yes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 382.562970068402, "userId": "iDqujVOHHyZpSkzndtHEcrzbdzT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 326.7435945973811, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "t14j138nsb", "createdTime": 1719738373443, "probChanges": {"day": 0.20182101118337636, "week": 0.198962274953644, "month": 0.198962274953644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.20182101118337636, "probChangeWeek": 0.198962274953644, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.198962274953644}, {"id": "1gfbsh1eds", "prob": 0.23337161281400742, "text": "No", "index": 1, "poolNo": 195.06824290147657, "userId": "iDqujVOHHyZpSkzndtHEcrzbdzT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 640.8013838681774, "textFts": "", "contractId": "t14j138nsb", "createdTime": 1719738373443, "probChanges": {"day": -0.10210425407994964, "week": -0.09638678162048472, "month": -0.09638678162048472}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.10210425407994964, "probChangeWeek": -0.09638678162048472, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.09638678162048472}, {"id": "ium7gf6tiq", "prob": 0.2272805379966069, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 191.74551107084, "userId": "iDqujVOHHyZpSkzndtHEcrzbdzT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 651.9057437220476, "textFts": "", "contractId": "t14j138nsb", "createdTime": 1719738373443, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09971675710342676, "week": -0.10257549333315913, "month": -0.10257549333315913}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09971675710342676, "probChangeWeek": -0.10257549333315913, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.10257549333315913}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696840123258 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719834896105 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 6pojo6b1jy | {"NO": 91.26401877068149, "YES": 109.57220747781162} | 0.4544201037603706 | will-biden-drop-out-before-trump-an | 534.7028640377249 | Will Biden drop out before Trump announces his vice president running mate? | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719739978808 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.1194442522055546, "week": -0.04557989623962938, "month": -0.04557989623962938} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.525419449130272, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 30.45625024138085 | 100 | strutheo | 1720219022376 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720219019199 | 1719772834542 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ggbwp2m0uj | {"NO": 985.5204778905182, "YES": 1014.6922589984895} | 0.49270783037974686 | will-the-sanctions-on-russia-be-lar | 530 | Will the sanctions on Russia be largely lifted before 2031? | 1925074740000 | t0bKoFORwsQpjWltj9khAL2CbLh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.553947770076823 | False | basic | public | 1719739997170 | Hannes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve as true if the Western sanctions on Russia will be largely lifted (let's say more than 80 percent) at any point before 2031 compared to the baseline of today (2024-06-30).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the resolution is controversial, I will feed the question title/description and the \"History\" section of the \"International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War\" Wikipedia article to the best free OpenAI model and ask it to resolve it as yes, no or N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.007292169620253142, "month": -0.007292169620253142} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.891144215525113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HannesLynchburg | 1719803946076 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdfrllG49IxkU9OBLJ85qqdWhf2ikbeI7eT1MMju-Tu=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690816394591 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719803943001 | 1719740629328 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3t71cs41o2 | what-country-will-win-the-2024-amer | 1337.2959713374375 | What country will win the 2024 Americas Cup? | 1735664340000 | tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719741287039 | Fela | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.386664460975737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | fela | 1719916756416 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1Gq0j1FxNF_nOcAnkqyaClgr6el3Q8gIXTlh--_w=s96-c | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hdbnqld53s", "prob": 0.6492952114001485, "text": "New Zealand", "index": 0, "poolNo": 304.2532697444411, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 164.33677127610716, "textFts": "'new':1 'zealand':2", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.4834281000627343, "month": 0.4834281000627343}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.4834281000627343, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": 0.4834281000627343}, {"id": "z18vx4wgws", "prob": 0.1155290472626763, "text": "United States", "index": 1, "poolNo": 80.81441076950368, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 618.7015350839874, "textFts": "'state':2 'unit':1", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.05089675819289108, "month": -0.05089675819289108}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.05089675819289108, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.05089675819289108}, {"id": "txov5pfn3p", "prob": 0.08614600026063043, "text": "Italy", "index": 2, "poolNo": 68.65373237087866, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 728.2925235570833, "textFts": "'itali':1", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.08035779677732852, "month": -0.08035779677732852}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.08035779677732852, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.08035779677732852}, {"id": "v18vhzhkos", "prob": 0.032967708683041344, "text": "France", "index": 3, "poolNo": 41.286578729823816, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1211.0473073391743, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.13509337927082177, "month": -0.13509337927082177}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 6.938893903907228e-18, "probChangeWeek": -0.13509337927082177, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.13509337927082177}, {"id": "76ojrono7i", "prob": 0.04387730159659549, "text": "United Kingdom", "index": 4, "poolNo": 47.9013930385405, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1043.8109797719435, "textFts": "'kingdom':2 'unit':1", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.1227260228042472, "month": -0.1227260228042472}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -6.938893903907228e-18, "probChangeWeek": -0.1227260228042472, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.1227260228042472}, {"id": "ila0zjtrud", "prob": 0.07218473079690796, "text": "Switzerland", "index": 5, "poolNo": 62.370168163712734, "userId": "tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 801.665306862044, "textFts": "'switzerland':1", "contractId": "3t71cs41o2", "createdTime": 1719741287039, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.09435414301744548, "month": -0.09435414301744548}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.09435414301744548, "totalLiquidity": 223.60679774997897, "probChangeMonth": -0.09435414301744548}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667938840378 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719916752045 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | 1cnlhh047h | {"NO": 994.9874371066184, "YES": 10.050378152592145} | 1 | will-president-carter-still-be-aliv | 1042.9598550098613 | Will president Carter still be alive by midnight July 4th? | 1720178880260 | R7kqzKSSgyffJ6Zawnf4xIxqKR62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719743663655 | Texas2009 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.010000000000000009, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.58269396292972, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720178880260 | 100 | Texas2009 | 1720178880260 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1703731728201 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720053156615 | 0.99 | R7kqzKSSgyffJ6Zawnf4xIxqKR62 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | vytjl3cmv5 | {"NO": 274.4594146395479, "YES": 3643.5259519638435} | 0.0700511586845166 | taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of | 4978.4080021019345 | Taylor Swift runs for president of the USA before 2037 | 2114438340000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84802476400467 | False | basic | public | 1719744654784 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pop megastar Taylor Swift runs for president of the USA before the year 2037.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.4299488413154834, "month": -0.4299488413154834} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.12315922776468, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarrisonLucas | 1720125559385 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664585067255 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720125538860 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | f18ix3mg3w | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-harrison-manage-to-obtain-and | 0 | Will Harrison manage to obtain and maintain a relationship from before this bash to next bash (2025) | 1760104740000 | jhTuAjYpGjenYMjFVCUKfWJilyt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719745364927 | Matthew Harris | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | MatthewHarris5ac1 | 1719745364927 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1buDkIeV_8n8mQ1_o75xOVwpI3YyumY9lUY09f=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668610313312 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | k5x4ofecf5 | {"NO": 72.01039133565807, "YES": 138.86884676667785} | 0.34147691343949527 | will-i-clean-my-home-for-at-least-2 | 40 | Will I clean my home for at least 20 minutes every day in July? | 1722463140000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719746210110 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I use markets like this as commitment devices to help me manage my chronic depression.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two exceptions apply:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- if I don't spend the day at home, that day doesn't count ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- I can work ahead for the next day, e.g. if I clean for 40 minutes, I don't have to clean the next day", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.15852308656050473, "month": -0.15852308656050473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1311532333221557, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719823205809 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719823202742 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4hp0fg5p35 | {"NO": 138.7815669200891, "YES": 72.05567873259446} | 0.6582402767142328 | will-i-read-a-book-in-july | 55 | Will I read a book in July? | 1722463140000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719747062508 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I haven't finished a book for several years. Armed with a new ereader and a membership to my local public library, I want to start reading again. So will I start and finish reading a book in July?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would love to hear your recommendations. I'm interested in non-fiction, science-fiction, contemporary and classic literature. However, I have already chosen a book for July, namely \"Underground: The Tokyo Gas Attack and the Japanese Psyche\", by Haruki Murakami.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1582402767142328, "month": 0.1582402767142328} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5942717604321213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | redcat | 1719768853701 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719764027636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 90av0e5727 | {"NO": 3001.693939818044, "YES": 333.1452240132856} | 0.9001015618304837 | will-nadu-winged-wisdom-be-banned-i-a8bjmqkic2 | 5681.375983125661 | Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in the next Magic the Gathering Modern banned and restricted announcement? | 1735711140000 | ZaLUSunUQsgGhgJ8L40eiHOHkqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.767571842565644 | False | basic | public | 1719750228945 | Warlock Tiny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will update with clarifications as needed but I expect this is pretty clear cut. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counts emergency announcements.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve after the next Modern B&R.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.40010156183048373, "month": 0.40010156183048373} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 103.68675189945931, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WarlockTiny | 1720095669619 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWarlockTiny%2FQMA49rBvWq.38?alt=media&token=99fade80-a714-4cee-9b5f-492d0d8c18a2 | 13 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668472578611 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720095665553 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | i7v26sr47v | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-notes-on-teaching-in-prison-ma | 0 | Will "Notes on Teaching in Prison" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719755071413 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Notes on Teaching in Prison", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o4wWySLEyrePkJzrD/notes-on-teaching-in-prison", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719755071606 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8nuq4b0c5b | {"NO": 647.7807531049948, "YES": 1543.7321890264868} | 0.2955860951817873 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-to-see-a | 911 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive to see another president beside Joe Biden? | 1738364340000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599846608264372 | False | basic | public | 1719756185081 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as YES if Joe Biden is no longer officially the president of the United States and Jimmy Carter is still alive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as NO if Jimmy Carter dies while Joe Biden is still officially the president of the United States.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the timing of both events is too close to determine the exact order, this market will resolve 50%/50%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2044139048182127, "month": -0.2044139048182127} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.450983261635887, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lion | 1719935959748 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719935650602 | 1719935957492 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | tr2cib17ca | {"NO": 69.56380563139922, "YES": 143.75291732869587} | 0.32610572985603403 | will-lebron-james-ever-play-with-br | 45 | Will LeBron James ever play with Bronny James and Bryce James together on a team by the end of the 2029-30 season? | 1909205940000 | d5xiBIhfJaZpKMfZlDfT9d1SOu13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719757143602 | catto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.17389427014396597, "month": -0.17389427014396597} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2470826713041308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | catto | 1720066351556 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695077874566 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720066348382 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | oyep54eoi8 | {"NO": 86.55883644966255, "YES": 115.52835516470236} | 0.4283242087644991 | will-drinking-milk-cure-my-sleep-ma | 91.276085875446 | Will drinking milk cure my sleep maintenance insomnia? | 1722380340000 | 5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719757629698 | Robin Green | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I typically only sleep 3.5 to 4.5 hours per night. I fall asleep just fine, but I wake up in the middle of the night and fail to fall back to sleep.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I believe that drinking large quantities (between 0.5L and 1L per day) of milk will cure my sleep maintenance insomnia, for the following reasons:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Milk contains tryptophan, which is used by the body to produce melatonin", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Milk also contains iodine - indeed, in the UK where I live, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "it is the population's primary source of iodine, since our salt isn't iodised, unlike in the US", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". If I have been iodine deficient, my pineal gland may have been uptaking fluoride instead from e.g. my toothpaste, or bromide from pesticide contamination of my food, and this would cause my pineal gland to malfunction. I do frequently experience subjectively cold body temperatures at room temperatures ranging from 20 to as high as 24 degrees Celsius, and struggle to lose weight, both of which seem to me like they could be related to an iodine deficiency issue.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I intend to test this with lacto-free[*] milk over the coming days and weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[*] I am lactose-intolerant", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.07167579123550089, "month": -0.07167579123550089} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9463619902216913, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | RobinGreen | 1719823194306 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5E-q_bZ3CRRdAyvsBKzjKhaVimPpY3ue3d3lKmaA=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673115996741 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719823191243 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | a9olurgcmw | {"NO": 114.5260150371848, "YES": 87.31640576818427} | 0.5674030988144905 | will-tame-impala-release-a-consumer | 15 | Will Tame Impala release a consumer analog synthesizer in 2024? | 1738472340000 | kg2vRQFSJ9aSZebFoLRkbfUlrqL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719757679239 | 😸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Limited rollout counts (e.g., limited edition, only a few in supply, only a few shipped in 2024), as long non-affiliates (at least someone from the general public) are able to get one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-If shipping (packages in mail) begins before 2025, but the synth arrives in 2025, that still counts as a \"release\" in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Anything Kevin Parker does will count as Tame Impala doing it, even if the name Tame Impala is not included anywhere.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-If a company is announced, or plans to make a synth are announced, but no synth is actually shipped to consumers in 2024, this resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-If there is no preponderance of the evidence towards YES by February 1st, 2025, this resolves NO. This means if the question should otherwise resolve yes, but the involvement of Tame Impala is kept secret until after February 1st, 2025 (so there is no evidence), it will resolve no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-An analog synthesizer is a device that has either an oscillator or filter that works by changing or creating an electric signal. This means that most analog-digital hybrid synthesizers will count as analog. Any analog effects (purely meant to change, but not make or sculpt sound) will not count. If the synthesizer is fully modular (e.g., individual modules of a synth are shipped), it will count as yes ONLY if an oscillator (something which produces the analog signal) is one of the modules shipped.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | SCS | 1719757713360 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1718733108156 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719757710307 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | x3t4y1cd05 | {"NO": 62.57686831143575, "YES": 159.80345884730906} | 0.28139570217812315 | will-beff-jezos-renounce-eacc-by-eo | 127.46917831236942 | Will Beff Jezos renounce e/acc by EOY? | 1735642740000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719759071374 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all references to e/acc are removed from his X profile (name and bio) by EOY. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if this doesn't happen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/BasedBeffJezos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/BasedBeffJezos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.21860429782187685, "month": -0.21860429782187685} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7273628403214993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jim | 1719986108704 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719889468009 | 1719986107850 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gbo6qvvbda | {"NO": 33.43144649392492, "YES": 299.1195729989485} | 0.10053027816575784 | will-the-usa-and-china-tie-in-the-c | 326.6603617262308 | Will the USA and China tie in the current Moon Race? | 1893409140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719759700994 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently the USA and China are racing to put a person on the Moon. Obviously, the USA has done it before, but this is a new race so those landings don't count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question is whether China and the USA will each succeed in putting a person on the Moon in the same year. E.g. China gets there in 2029, then the USA also gets there in 2029. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3994697218342422, "month": -0.3994697218342422} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.220065274820713, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jim | 1719788983052 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719788979992 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 20rp0yl5yc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-global-gdp-growth-exceed-10-fo | 0 | Will global GDP growth exceed 10% for the 12 months following the creation of AGI? | 1893409140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719760024167 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGI will be considered achieved when this clock reaches zero: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (see this market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jim | 1719760057426 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | y3pnrp4elr | {"NO": 1140.4138285873487, "YES": 876.8746703455163} | 0.5653201459239082 | will-we-see-zoro-in-chapter-1120 | 145 | Will we see Zoro in chapter 1120? | 1721327340000 | d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573015434006045 | False | basic | public | 1719760521582 | lazy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06532014592390822, "month": 0.06532014592390822} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.586171412651203, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lazy | 1720034217894 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708784795714 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720034214467 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000011 | ktjusafbgh | {"NO": 758.9465066843247, "YES": 1317.6159204800645} | 0.3654821529833283 | will-biden-recover | 9351.830525767038 | Will Biden recover? | 1730977140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.493430839088292 | False | basic | public | 1719760754324 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden recovers to 33.3% or higher on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://electionbettingodds.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQjU9xrjItk.png?alt=media&token=906db31a-67d3-4b26-96fb-76acbd9ff006", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.04141020656739358, "week": -0.1345178470166717, "month": -0.1345178470166717} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 254.75022967162113, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 150 | 1000 | jim | 1720244667046 | 0 | 73 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720244663966 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | y73fdgp7s2 | {"NO": 1048.4160743188406, "YES": 747.9362677474511} | 0.18579444449081137 | will-the-incredible-fentanyldetecti | 300 | Will "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.867193465942513 | False | public | 1719761373376 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TzwMfRArgsNscHocX/the-incredible-fentanyl-detecting-machine", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.045794444490811353, "month": 0.045794444490811353} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.068363970087228, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720066087636 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720066084593 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | iytspnkjhm | {"NO": 1006.7338716505478, "YES": 959.6116960281779} | 0.1458719294849315 | will-the-incredible-fentanyldetecti-m92otu2ghw | 181 | Will "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.890198026950305 | False | public | 1719761374481 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TzwMfRArgsNscHocX/the-incredible-fentanyl-detecting-machine", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.005871929484931482, "month": 0.005871929484931482} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1390586482635863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720066086092 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720066083037 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3464087430470315 | ec549nqqmg | {"NO": 6531.275754472345, "YES": 21350.766010583866} | 0.13951211707089137 | will-biden-drop-out-after-receiving | 18562.593878015778 | Will Biden drop out after receiving the nomination? | 1735685940000 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9821201171868807 | False | plus | public | 1719762374282 | Simon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race after officially receiving the nomination.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to YES. (Definition from Polymarket)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if he does not receive the nomination, or stays in the race until election day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.004676470196774085, "week": -0.3604878829291086, "month": -0.3604878829291086} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 254.90753264682795, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 553.2355690977594 | 10000 | Simon74fe | 1720179042860 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645874228924 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720179039749 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | w1ehypvs62 | {"NO": 100.96634070698074, "YES": 99.04290806201918} | 0.5048083592553838 | will-cochrane-retract-their-review | 1 | Will Cochrane retract their Review of Exercise Therapy for ME/CFS or publish an updated review (against GET) by 2029? | 1861916340000 | FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719764640868 | Yann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2019 Cochrane published a review concluding graded exercise therapy (GET) was beneficial for people with ME/CFS. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This goes against nearly every other major organisation, whom say that exercise therapy is harmful for people with ME/CFS:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CDC (Since 2017) (US)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NICE and NHS (since 2021) (UK)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mayo Clinic (Since 2024) (US)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Australian ME/CFS Guidelines (Since 2024) (Australia)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An open letter signed by nearly every major ME/CFS patient organisation asks for the retraction of the 2019 review.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2019 Cochrane acknowledged that the review was still outdated as published. The patient community was promised a new review would be worked on and published.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The updates from this new review have been minimal, and as of 2024, it is unclear to what extent the process is ongoing. Even a protocol has yet to be published.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to yes if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cochrane withdraws the 2019 review before 1st Jan 2029", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OR", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cochrane publishes a new review before 1st Jan 2029, concluding that GET is harmful.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise it shall resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will abstain from betting here.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0048083592553838095, "month": 0.0048083592553838095} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03365929301926206, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Yann | 1719767902172 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719606448794 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719767899049 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999997 | gt8uf4fta3 | {"NO": 139.32610920384724, "YES": 71.77405625652739} | 0.6599999999999997 | will-i-be-reading-every-day-in-july | 137.37267543397286 | Will I be reading every day in July? | 1722463140000 | sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719768229255 | redcat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No matter how long. This market should help me achieve my other goal:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/redcat/will-i-read-a-book-in-july", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.24766220117740445, "week": 0.1599999999999997, "month": 0.1599999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.153932808455298, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 117.37267543397287 | 100 | redcat | 1720234187239 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697305658168 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720234183917 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7auq5ebfvy | french-2024-parliamentary-elections | 9665.60495757896 | French 2024 parliamentary elections -- multi-question. Final round July 7th. | 1721015940000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719768440105 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's have fun, place some bets, and learn about the French parliamentary system.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Here is how it works. There are 577 seats in French parliament aka \"National Assembly\" -- including overseas territories.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "There are two rounds of voting. The first on June 30th, and the second on Sunday July 7th. After all second round votes are counted, we will know the party of each of the 577 assembly members.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "At that point the parties will negotiate (usually, quite quickly) to determine what will be the winning / ruling coalition that has a parliamentary majority.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Most focus is on two parties / coalitions", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "1. Macron's centrist \"Ensemble coalition\" that is expected to lose, but may pull out a win if the National Rally (LePen's coalition) is not able to win an absolute majority.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2. LePen's National Rally -- right wing and the favorite", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3. Left wing coalition \"New Popular Front\" -- seen as more likely to form a ruling coalition than Macron's centrist group or LePen's right wing group", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "These names may change... such is French politics. But it will be very clear what happened. Probably by evening of July 7th, or a day or so after.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As of June 30th -- before first round results have been announced, here is some information we have.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "National Rally is over 95% chance to win the election (but perhaps with a partner)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.bettingonpolitics.co.uk/francepoliticsbettingmarkets.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bettingonpolitics.co.uk/francepoliticsbettingmarkets.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FeSXlJCGidY.png?alt=media&token=8186b1d5-a423-47ab-ab1f-715923610974", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to this article, polling suggests that National Rally would get about 37% of the vote and projected to win close to ~50% of the seats. Close to enough for absolute majority of 577 but could be close.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/national-rally-seen-winning-37-popular-vote-first-round-french-snap-election-2024-06-28/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/national-rally-seen-winning-37-popular-vote-first-round-french-snap-election-2024-06-28/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLHw70WYQRD.png?alt=media&token=1eab6e1d-978c-4fa0-aca3-780f2842a42e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's face it -- unless you a French or expert in parliamentary systems... you probably don't understand all of this. But place a wager anyway. Let's learn how this system works.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Viva la France! ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "🇫🇷", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/flag-france", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "🥖", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/baguette-bread", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "🗳️", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/ballot-box-with-ballot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 186.81097047122057, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 196.36855638925846 | 4400 | Moscow25 | 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0.4999999999999999 | 7xsfle2soh | {"NO": 885.433337702801, "YES": 1129.3905000171285} | 0.4394594312050622 | will-i-secure-an-ai-safety-job-befo | 145 | Will I secure an AI safety job before September? | 1725173940000 | GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572633290958974 | False | basic | public | 1719770954589 | Yoav Tzfati | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">$2k a month", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CV: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1si771ShFliPhlTirtHWeND0gUkopY1Xv/view?usp=drivesdk", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0605405687949378, "month": -0.0605405687949378} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.628930038075501, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Crazytieguy | 1719798563875 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679943836171 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719798270490 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 45it4bh3tt | {"NO": 74.63396617185845, "YES": 133.98725155478346} | 0.35774868436273793 | will-google-add-ai-image-generation | 35 | Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719771642949 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.14225131563726207, "month": -0.14225131563726207} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0127484452165343, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719808973445 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719808969970 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45765488425273 | qecswdxhl8 | {"NO": 990.9975684539353, "YES": 1009.8930462637824} | 0.45297073027428847 | will-google-add-ai-image-generation-xduylif7mm | 20 | Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.640948595678097 | False | basic | public | 1719771660907 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -0.04702926972571153, "month": -0.04702926972571153} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6603704976775183, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720034532974 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719927668676 | 1720034530985 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | yd7qzezyc5 | {"NO": 592.7219870131361, "YES": 1687.1316096088024} | 0.2599824777746138 | will-biden-make-any-gaffes-in-the-n | 1826.792736200344 | Will Biden make any gaffes in the next week according to the NY Times? | 1720421940000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613315981954056 | False | basic | public | 1719773050854 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a New York Times article describing Biden making a \"gaffe\" between June 30th at 11:40 AM PT and July 7th at 11:40 AM PT. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the NY times specifically uses the word \"gaffe\" in relation to something Biden said during this time period, I will resolve YES. If the NY times does not use the word \"gaffe\" but reports on Biden misspeaking in an embarrassing way then I will resolve YES. Otherwise, I will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2400175222253862, "month": -0.2400175222253862} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.89903360326501, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720118033975 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720118030904 | 1719951521435 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 3d4c5e1q1v | {"NO": 1407.627830326633, "YES": 710.4150532232363} | 0.6645889189776131 | if-biden-drops-out-will-he-endorse | 7117.070857834554 | If Biden drops out, will he endorse Kamala Harris the same day? | 1730879940000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.588575528733573 | False | basic | public | 1719773173670 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden endorses Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination on the same day that he officially drops out of the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Biden drops out but does not endorse Harris on the same day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Biden never drops out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden does not drop out since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.16458891897761307, "month": 0.16458891897761307} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 178.9121501887669, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720033334912 | 0 | 50 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720033330064 | 1719798324376 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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xwu23ot7l3 | if-biden-drops-out-who-will-seek-th | 1092.2833113110996 | If Biden drops out, who will seek the Democratic nomination? | 1731052740000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719773623851 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the person is reported by credible media outlets as seeking the nomination publicly or through back channels prior to election day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NA if Biden does not drop out. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. 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Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.83568182023674, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 220.25281997403232 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720208553824 | 0 | 12 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "snoygnbsqv", "prob": 0.7165306540534081, "text": "Kamala Harris", "index": 0, "poolNo": 158.98799649268233, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.89783015449392, "textFts": "'harri':2 'kamala':1", "contractId": "xwu23ot7l3", "createdTime": 1719773623851, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2165306540534081, "month": 0.2165306540534081}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2165306540534081, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.2165306540534081}, {"id": "i2b84i1wct", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Gretchen Whitmer", "index": 1, "poolNo": 100, "userId": 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264gpv8q2r | is-quantum-chaos-basically-a-scam-f | 0 | Is quantum chaos basically a scam field? | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719775394553 | mario pasquato | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following H-J Stöckmann’s book Quantum Chaos and adding a bit of Dunning-Kruger fueled feelings and impressions it would seem that the main focus of the field is solving classical electromagnetism (the wave equation actually) with boundary conditions representing a cavity with a nontrivial shape, mapping this to the solutions of the Schrödinger equation and calling it a quantum billiard. Nice pictures and experiments and whatnot follow. Hence, papers! Publish or perish amirite?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I suspect this view is uncharitable and due to my own ignorance. What does Manifold think?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | mariopasquato | 1719775394579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691028732594 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 4475cch8jb | {"NO": 102.02040612204075, "YES": 98.01960588196073} | 0.5100000000000001 | rfk-as-the-democratic-nominee-would | 242.5714889781582 | RFK (as the democratic nominee) would defeat Trump in the general election. | 1735718340000 | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719783083719 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01000000000000012, "month": 0.01000000000000012} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.775428547687696, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Krantz | 1719818267550 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719785395638 | 1719818266663 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 661myr342u | {"NO": 109.67693839261675, "YES": 91.17687042103996} | 0.5460535652294758 | if-matt-kaeberlein-were-to-get-in-a | 10 | If Matt Kaeberlein were to get in a cage fight match with David Sinclair, would he win? | 43043720340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719783575067 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04605356522947579, "month": 0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719809783619 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809780560 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6vwz9hz74c | {"NO": 95.38819365450188, "YES": 104.8347768930421} | 0.47640984145648496 | if-steve-horvath-were-to-get-in-a-c | 5 | If Steve Horvath were to get in a cage fight match with Steve Austad, would he win? | 7983896340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719783605310 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.02359015854351504, "month": -0.02359015854351504} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16522310695789072, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719809775519 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809772352 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | r93m06n9wm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | if-vincent-weisser-were-to-get-in-a | 0 | If Vincent Weisser were to get in a cage fight match with Johannes Hagemann, would he win? | 7983896340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719783670535 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719783670535 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | r32gjk6k24 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | if-jacob-rintamaki-were-to-get-in-a | 0 | x | 7983896340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719783696602 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719824687773 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | w16is7e61w | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-7uerbr4ctw | 50 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 40 and 41? | 1720421940000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719784871582 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 40”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 40”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023590158543515094, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719807154397 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719807151245 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pswf5d5it8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-jacob-rintamaki-have-raised-mo | 0 | Will Jacob Rintamaki have raised more money than Andrew Gao by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719786398633 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719786398633 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nx2yntze5j | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-parmita-mishra-be-interviewed | 0 | Will Parmita Mishra be interviewed by Lex Fridman OR Dwarkesh Patel by EOY 2030? | 1925009940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719786746076 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719786746076 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | xarbrxjgul | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-parmita-mishra-prmshra-and-jos | 0 | Will Parmita Mishra (@prmshra) and Jose Luis Ricon (@ArtirKel) fall in love by EOY 2030? | 1925009940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719786780277 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719788113790 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719788112981 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | xcdn8kiz7y | {"NO": 1354.1074274209905, "YES": 7.3849384454274585} | 1 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | 3758.3852565506263 | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | 1719891996949 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719788217556 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hurricane Beryl is already category 4. Will it reach category 5?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 93.2042365890416, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719891996949 | 100 | Gabrielle | 1719891996949 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 20 | 16 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641356493109 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719891991655 | 1719889560450 | 0.99 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | 0 |
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