CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

smffxeg4r4

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🟢🔴 Polya urn game: Will a green ball be drawn on ... ?

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cpmm-multi-1

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M L

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting July 3 with an urn containing one green ball and one red ball, I will use @FairlyRandom to draw one ball uniformly at random from the urn. If it is green (1), \"July 3\" will resolve as YES, if it is red (2), \"July 3\" will resolve as NO....

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{"NO": 501.2046626272388, "YES": 1995.1929312831028}

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NVIDIA to the moon?

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Symmetry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if, by 2035, an official NVIDIA company mission lands on the moon. This can be part of a ridesharing mission or a dedicated NVIDIA mission. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Payload can be purely sy...

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When will a tropical storm be named Debby in 2024?

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Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves EST. Subtropical storms also count", "type": "text"}]}]}

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{"NO": 104.8347768930421, "YES": 95.38819365450188}

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Will Sorcerer in Dark and Darker be released before Halloween (Oct 31st) 2024?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Sorcerer class be released before Oct 31st 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if it appears on playtest or main servers for testing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont...

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{"NO": 3168.2393552410017, "YES": 315.6327183253276}

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will-the-democratic-presidential-ca-9a5c2dfo83

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Will the Democratic presidential candidate be either Joe Biden, or his chosen successor?

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Zane

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Democratic candidate for president is Joe Biden. Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses someone else for president, and that person later becomes the Democratic candidate. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragr...

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{"NO": 1501.581892076922, "YES": 665.9643441869462}

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Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M)

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{"NO": 953.8818087167327, "YES": 1048.3479094179506}

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Would over 20% of global fashion revenue come from virtual cosmetics by 2030?

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Quillist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assuming current trends and ratios remain relatively static, this will resolve via comparing global apparel and footwear market, with global virtual goods market", "type": "text"}]}]}

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{"NO": 1882.9377433825398, "YES": 531.0850045437955}

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will-chappell-roan-reach-35-million

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Will Chappell Roan reach >35 million monthly listeners on Spotify during July? (Current: 26M, up from 1M in January)

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9.63360206760391

False

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1719701665998

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since January, Chappell Roan has enjoyed a shocking surge in popularity (without even releasing a new album): ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot....

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{"NO": 983.6858715195124, "YES": 10.165846932977615}

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will-hurricane-beryl-become-a-cat2

1143.86745831748

Will Hurricane Beryl become At least (CAT-2) category 2 Hurricane?

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10.586609649448985

True

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YES

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Russell McCready

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hurricane Beryl is a new storm heading and increasing in wind speed, but will it conquer CAT-1?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Beryl is the seasons first Hurricane, promising a not-so friendl...

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RussellMcCready

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{"NO": 1023.5963884274009, "YES": 866.5239427285529}

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will-the-witching-hour-make-the-top

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Will "The Witching Hour" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

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9.880147391721664

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1719703430526

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

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1000

LessWrong

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{"NO": 665.5667505636555, "YES": 1502.4789011066428}

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will-any-of-these-10-pundits-apolog

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Will any of these 10 pundits apologize by end of August for calling for Biden to drop out?

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9.59625333228868

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1719703831032

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many political commentators and pundits (who previously supported Biden) have called for Biden to drop out immediately following the debate. However, Democratic politicians have stuck by Biden publicly so far, creating the impression that maybe the...

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Conflux

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{"NO": 382.1152095877278, "YES": 26.17011767416743}

1

will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-eap25jgpxg

341.5812628989501

Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 3 than it closed on June 28 (5460.48)?

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10.586609649448985

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YES

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1719707229258

Jim Fix

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JimFix

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{"NO": 136.52960381838255, "YES": 7324.418822237551}

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will-jimmy-carter-win-the-2024-us-p

19519.236246468045

Will Jimmy Carter win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

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cpmm-1

0

9.716974879377709

False

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1719707969681

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JimmyCarter", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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jim

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is-joe-biden-cognitively-fit-to-ser

0

Is Joe Biden cognitively fit to serve another term as president?

1719835140000

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none

0

1000000

True

public

1719708317655

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

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jim

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bgouw4kyjs

{"NO": 803.456621745932, "YES": 1244.6222645187413}

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will-81kilograms-be-regularly-takin

350

Will 81kilograms be regularly taking estrogen by June 2025?

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9.577783347242445

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1719709259150

Anna Crow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "81k has been hemming and hawing about transitioning MtF at least since 2023, and has been experimenting with gender extensively. Will he have finally taken the plunge a year from now?", "type": "text"}]}]}

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AnnaCrow

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sfb14-prop-bets

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#SFB14 prop bets

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cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

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1719709925494

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "http://scottfishbowl.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://scottfishbowl.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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dglid

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ANYONE

[{"id": "c4w2kwfhtt", "prob": 0.5, "text": "@fantasyforecstr raises $100+ for FantasyCares by auctioning off his picks: https://bit.ly/draftmySFB14team", "index": 0, "poolNo": 500, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'/draftmysfb14team':13 '100':3 'auction':7 'bit.ly'...

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{"NO": 9949.874371066206, "YES": 100.50378152592111}

1

60-chance-of-biden-as-democratic-no

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<60% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before August?

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brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923052

True

basic

YES

public

1719711011293

Predict

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a derivative market based on the primary market asking if Biden will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Primary market:", "type": "text"}]}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

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1719972168427

1000

Predict

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{"NO": 9949.874371066211, "YES": 100.50378152592111}

1

50-chance-of-biden-as-democratic-no

11865.757008583696

<50% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before the Democratic National Convention?

1720027272504

brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923084

True

basic

YES

public

1719711374324

Predict

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a derivative market based on the primary market asking if Biden will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Primary market:", "type": "text"}]}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

0

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1720027272504

1000

Predict

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0

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8

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0.13333333333333333

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0.25

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1720027254180

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Rising tides! How much the sea levels grow up this year?

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Will I secure an AI safety job before September?

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Jemima Bowman

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If Biden drops out, who will seek the Democratic nomination?

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Will Aspen win an arm wrestling match at Hardings?

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Will Biden drop out of the election before the second Trump debate?

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Who will be the Democratic nominee for vice president? (Dem VP)

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DismalScientist

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After Stage 3 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge?

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10.586609649448985

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If Biden drops out, his approval rating will...

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Is quantum chaos basically a scam field?

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If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

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If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

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Will Le Pen's National Rally Alliance get 275+ seats in French legislative election?

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Will Spain win UEFA Euro 2024?

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Gaz Downright

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Will there be a Diophantine equation in the IMO 2024 problems?

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Will Spain beat Germany? | Euro 2024

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Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of August?

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Which fictional character do you think I am most similar to personality-wise?

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RFK (as the democratic nominee) would defeat Trump in the general election.

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