p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.03900279250713896 | jXQNQ5RO3KfZfuRHfG9y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03900279250713896 | will-russia-ban-whatsapp-messages-t | 159 | {"NO": 138, "YES": 21} | Will Russia ban WhatsApp messages to OR from US phone numbers by March 31st? | 1648789140000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 138, "YES": 21} | 0 | 4.887798837664028 | True | play | NO | public | 1646305241719 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 155.8694197098969, "YES": 31.40130571011339} | {"creatorFee": 0.8399999999999994, "platformFee": 0.20999999999999985, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1648884120686 | 100 | GustavoLacerda | 1646305241719 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 9 | 1715658577236 | 0 | 1 | 0.03900279250713896 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7959172011728447 | CUiGoKt4GcVV2ednPK1h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7959172011728447 | will-at-least-one-of-the-mm-founder | 140 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 100} | Will at least one of the MM founders use my web3 MM knockoff? | 1646624696082 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.919563354551875 | True | play | YES | public | 1646306554495 | Undox | This refers to the web3 project linked in my profile. Proof is a confirmation here or on Discord. Use means register then place a bet or make a new market. Founders at time of writing are James Grugett, Stephen Grugett, Austin Chen, this excludes any other people who may be involved now or in the future.
Resolves NO if this doesn’t happen in 30 days.
Mar 7, 2:44pm: resolve in favour of bet as i need liquidity
Mar 7, 5:28pm: LOL - I just realized that one of the founders has used it all along, assuming the username registered on the app is not someone pretending. So YES is indeed correct. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 124.90076060857277} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1646624696082 | 100 | Undox | 1646306554495 | 0 | 2 | 1715657765524 | 0 | 0.7959172011728447 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02730073656192617 | MzOGmg0tFtByUBs7JOMd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02730073656192617 | will-the-volume-of-this-market-in-k | 53 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 6} | Will the volume of this market, in k$, be greater than the day of the month on any day in March? | 1648767540000 | Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 6} | 0 | 5.2935879425344154 | True | play | NO | public | 1646306999958 | Ferruginous Duck | For example if the volume hits $15,000 on the 14th of March the market resolves YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.30000000497018, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0.24000000000000005, "platformFee": 0.06000000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649066641456 | 100 | FerruginousDuck | 1646306999958 | 0 | 4 | 1715658038002 | 0 | 1 | 1646324444505 | 0.02730073656192617 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6571095123984986 | 08Q50R82c7joZAEhkZcJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6571095123984986 | the-volume-of-this-market-defines-a | 65 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 26} | The volume of this market defines a polynomial as given in the description. On close, will this polynomial have at least one real root? | 1646908437315 | Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 26} | 0 | 5.380308721929719 | True | play | YES | public | 1646307476581 | Ferruginous Duck | Examples: 1234$ -> x^3+2x^2+3x+4
563$ -> x^2+6x+3
70 009$ -> 7x^4+9
Formal definition: Call the digits of the volume, in order, A(n-1),...,A0, where n is the number of digits. The polynomial in question is A(n-1)x^(n-1)+....+A0x^0.
Mar 3, 11:38am: second example should say 5x^2+6x+3
Mar 10, 10:33am: x=-3/4 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 25.18003178115548, "YES": 34.857596022961765} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646908437315 | 100 | FerruginousDuck | 1646307476581 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1715656101603 | 0 | 1646459614270 | 0.6571095123984986 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3648297675894151 | nOwPLiEmvH9X7eMxXn0n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3648297675894151 | to-what-extent-is-sports-betting-si | 229.12065648384257 | {"NO": 58.8, "YES": 62.07934351615745} | To what extent is sports betting similar to prediction markets? | 1649627940000 | QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58.8, "YES": 65.2} | 0 | 2.9911972857196942 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646323426178 | ianminds | This market resolves to PROB, where 100% means they are fully equivalent, and where 0% means they couldn't be any more different. You're encouraged to show your work in the comments. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 96.33869381309911, "YES": 73.01310514537897} | {"creatorFee": 0.12235678951932755, "platformFee": 0.030589197379831887, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1654006297378 | 100 | ianminds | 1646323426178 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c | 5 | 1650314754139 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1665759336162}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012977}] | ["predictions-on-predictions", "sports-default"] | 1646336657212 | False | 0.3648297675894151 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20346868077688446 | 3XubyxWlN7YHA789K4sl | {"NO": 95.54505485209101, "YES": 180.54182056408646} | 0 | will-russia-close-its-borders-to-pr | 1474.9606219012112 | {"NO": 319.4397019511651, "YES": 143.41469337473103} | Will Russia close its borders to prevent its citizens from leaving? | 1651377600000 | xs7PjBvKveZJ8ZRULK0srmq9UPG2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 301, "YES": 165} | 0 | 4.073266839272935 | True | play | NO | public | 1646327191858 | Timothy Rooney | This market will resolve to YES if Russia prevents its citizens from leaving the country at any point between now and May 1st. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 412.9907879289518, "YES": 208.98259752456715} | {"creatorFee": 4.519108253024095, "platformFee": 0.7665587260740477, "liquidityFee": 4.358620046183715} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651406753589 | 104.35862004618373 | TimothyRooney | 1646327191858 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzKzagHNGQ6Ff-JqGsJiieY_Wo6msr0hg-tRvLg=s96-c | 23 | 1650313788615 | 0 | 1 | 1651353015787 | 1650347283607 | 0.11908549595751831 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38433780784005006 | gkJY0mViKugLKCdNR3vK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.38433780784005006 | will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation | 220.49066943962077 | {"NO": 98.74448197774791, "YES": 82.76484858263132} | Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years? | 1806649140000 | neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 96, "YES": 85} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646330673751 | Jim Kjelland | Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2027 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 142.42052746901683, "YES": 112.52730093441842} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | JimKjelland | 1701216578328 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c | 9 | 1650314710030 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1701216577609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42441759423691633 | tuKG6O9ZyHTJtXsnoB4N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.42441759423691633 | will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation-89eab0d02701 | 167.67263244753525 | {"NO": 69.63750537761649, "YES": 58.68986217484826} | Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years? | 1743577140000 | neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 68, "YES": 60} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646332838680 | Jim Kjelland | Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2025 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 97.3590717925626, "YES": 83.6025182537651} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 100 | JimKjelland | 1700929651419 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c | 8 | 1650314792209 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1700929649735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45782733668661374 | 7Oe5QaGndIUaPTHMIvA3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation-d2ca07b076ab | 341.91532592158626 | {"NO": 166.3873600713511, "YES": 115.69731400706266} | Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next year? | 1648796340000 | neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 167, "YES": 115} | 0 | 2.792454618933434 | True | play | NO | public | 1646332961705 | Jim Kjelland | Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2023 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 207.70638107124083, "YES": 190.8674586789523} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1700930495236 | 100 | JimKjelland | 1700929568841 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c | 11 | 1650313813086 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1700929568177 | 0.46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7215848838995291 | oNhoNXDJt42vtmD7Jkx6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7215848838995291 | will-i-succeed-at-repairing-this-pa | 306.8306895127786 | {"NO": 81.83094594765626, "YES": 175.33836453956516} | Will I succeed at repairing this pair of eyeglass frames to the owners' satisfaction? | 1646899140000 | BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 82, "YES": 175} | 0 | 4.792468404584009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646333646597 | nfd | Resolves N/A if I don't get around to attempting this by March 10th
Resolves yes if I attempt a repair during that time, and if the owner of the frames replies something to the effect of "yes" when I ask "have I repaired these eyeglass frames to your satisfaction?"
Resolves no if I attempt a repair during that time, and either fail to complete it by March 10th or hear a reply to the effect of "no" or "not particularly" when I ask the same question as above, post-attempt.
This is the model of frames (tortoise color): https://www.framesdirect.com/jones-new-york-j516-eyeglasses
I am not an optician, and I have no particular experience with eyeglass repair, beyond merely being a person who has worn eyeglasses before and has bent wire frames back into shape slightly or tightened a loose screw. The left arm has broken off, partially stripped from its socket. The frames were brought to an optician, who did not consider them immediately repairable, and suggested replacement frames.
Since there's an exposed bit of metal at the end of the detached arm that can tuck into the socket (which "reattaches" the arm, though it won't hold in place well), I plan on tinning it with a little solder, pushing the end into the socket, and heating it up to form a join between the end and the socket.
I will not tell the owner of the frames that I'm running this market, and I will not coach her to reply in any particular way. The owner of the frames already has replacement frames.
Close date updated to 2022-03-09 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.69605898539666, "YES": 218.45628434981137} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646933985949 | 100 | nfd | 1646333646597 | 0 | 12 | 1715658678363 | 0 | 1 | 0.7215848838995291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.035307406951220345 | r1jQv8Un8CupuTUzmYwQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.035307406951220345 | martial-law-in-russia-before-march | 12895.172678568975 | {"NO": 7119.618459796337, "YES": 1457.208861634686} | Martial law in Russia before March 7th? | 1646603940000 | elagc5OpvzNBftXmzYdwgJjpJYX2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7292.2, "YES": 1135.8} | 0 | 4.620932913078429 | True | play | NO | public | 1646333689477 | tb | Martial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unreliable citizens and citizens of aggressor countries.
Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories?
Mar 3, 10:39pm: Before April 2022 should read "before March 7th" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8424.054911271745, "YES": 1611.6087947078552} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646631081571 | 100 | tb | 1646333689477 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiE8Yp83tVI7MWvBVgKc_kGl5udHhbjYCLbcmvlvQ=s96-c | 47 | 1715658755431 | 0 | 1 | 1646600962450 | 0.035307406951220345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018850632856532434 | ZlNU3NrleAVxHmrDjQUr | {"NO": 95.37928781101476, "YES": 1572.7589885232246} | 0 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-32dd40c5070b | 5068.781917767677 | {"NO": 1572.3286405483004, "YES": 100} | Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th Eastern Time? | 1650427200000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1581, "YES": 100} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1646335605255 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post.
The media outlet must not retract the claim within 2 hours. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1656.4561504375738, "YES": 229.86832825324774} | {"creatorFee": 0.6760247842705424, "platformFee": 0.1460821230623474, "liquidityFee": 0.2750888760634582} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650561122372 | 100.27481022555513 | MatthewBarnett | 1646335605255 | 0 | 35 | 1650314650596 | 0 | 1 | 1646335767925 | 0.0011637963254550305 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5039925337081398 | ocfNQGPHogB36xFtcMYb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5039925337081398 | will-i-meet-my-study-goals-tomorrow | 369.1447399947238 | {"NO": 77.3552600052762, "YES": 171.5} | Will I meet my study goals tomorrow? | 1646394900000 | TT4Fbtv17pNvfBqWezxFqUBeeF12 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 92.5, "YES": 171.5} | 0 | 4.797872249015671 | True | play | NO | public | 1646337000009 | pilots of a new sky | I am studying for exams due in 3 weeks. Due to mental health I have not managed to study on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of this week. I don't have reasons to believe tomorrow will be better, I'm just trying out this commitments thing.
This market resolves to YES if I have written summaries of chapters 3 + 4 of my accounting class by 1pm (GMT+1) on Friday. It resolves NO if I don't, for whatever reason, even if I finish it later or I do another class instead.
Close date updated to 2022-03-04 12:55 pm
Mar 4, 1:03pm: Should have set my goals realistically. Chapter 3 was three times as long as Chapter 2, and contained a lot of law stuff. Oh well, I did get two focused hours of studying out of this. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 175.26398290176874, "YES": 176.66911003687702} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1646395452059 | 100 | pilotsofanewsky | 1646337000009 | 0 | 10 | 1715658686241 | 0 | 1646387469720 | 0.5039925337081398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9784937873358635 | Y1K4r5SNnTlzndlteDYv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9784937873358635 | will-ba2-make-up-greater-than-50-of | 689.4809298070613 | {"NO": 39.907445815134565, "YES": 506.6116243778041} | Will BA.2 make up greater than 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases by April 2, according to the CDC? | 1648690312424 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 516} | 0 | 4.70258575493877 | True | play | YES | public | 1646338164718 | horse | Resolves based on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. Can resolve early if the threshold is reached. Data for April 2 expected to release by April 6.
Mar 30, 6:28pm: Since the title says "by" and not "on" I'm going for early resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 80.0004999996875, "YES": 540.6330614413945} | {"creatorFee": 1.3342310659288572, "platformFee": 0.3335577664822143, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648690312424 | 100 | horse | 1646338164718 | 0 | 9 | 1715658314244 | 0 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}] | ["medicine"] | 1648690251345 | 0.9784937873358635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5919420203297359 | tICllEcPR7BNBxRBbpKs | {"NO": 305.63634848488744, "YES": 49.75938748080374} | 1 | will-brad-raffensperger-win-the-rep | 316 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | Will Brad Raffensperger win the Republican primary for Secretary of State in Georgia? | 1653520076337 | PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | 0 | 3.1783724699266664 | True | play | YES | public | 1646345339775 | Lisa Marsh | If the primary goes to a runoff, what matters is whether Raffensperger wins the runoff, not who got the most votes in the first round. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 84.26220980071672} | {"creatorFee": 2.181909090674713, "platformFee": 0.36365151511245225, "liquidityFee": 2.181909090674713} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1653520076337 | 102.18190909067472 | lisamarsh | 1653520243004 | 0 | 4 | 1650314788939 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508941}] | ["politics-default"] | 1653502767825 | 1653520242423 | 0.8990938252294908 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8703606447287947 | XHmYYbXptS7IWGYu06iu | {"NO": 312.4017080471258, "YES": 88.53600390083065} | 1 | honourary-resolves-honorably | 2146.4996256036065 | {"NO": 95.83702271082197, "YES": 866.7574806773134} | Honourary resolves honorably. | 1659375723581 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 894} | 0 | 6.149706843692793 | True | play | YES | public | 1646350658296 | Gurkenglas | https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a
This market's close date is subject to change.
Jun 8, 9:52pm: With the new market mechanisms, there's little reason to keep this market closed.
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm
Jun 8, 10:47pm: To prevent frontrunning it would have been sufficient to close the other market, but he didn't seem to know that, so fair enough. I'll leave this up some longer, in case further info comes out. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 201.93534767481, "YES": 941.1759763734469} | {"creatorFee": 2.6031083378190183, "platformFee": 0.4189674405107773, "liquidityFee": 2.513804643064664} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1659375723581 | 162.94017168627445 | Gurkenglas | 1659375720600 | 0 | 22 | 1650314629127 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272484815}, {"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1668209717934}] | ["trust", "insurance"] | 1657665517830 | 1659375715340 | 0.9594969496320408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9828021146415186 | 5CMyPXyLPbqkuyg6oa7I | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9828021146415186 | will-the-usa-still-require-a-negati | 1016.265777298603 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 707.6452247671047} | Will the USA still require a negative Covid test for travelers entering via air from Canada on March 31st? | 1648753200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 709} | 0 | 4.677395799504656 | True | play | YES | public | 1646352940889 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 101.9810766784701, "YES": 770.9302892570962} | {"creatorFee": 2.7493689080558825, "platformFee": 0.6873422270139706, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649038153818 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646352940889 | 0 | 9 | 1715656989827 | 0 | 1 | 0.9828021146415186 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07671605547277717 | cAoNGI6SOCr2dh3lJOPF | {"NO": 1003.5434829404177, "YES": 1174.2656496375125} | 0.06630208818519395 | does-p-np | 14650.11384057754 | {"NO": 496.8340311495019, "YES": 81.95212205849145} | Does P = NP? | 32503708800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 498.5, "YES": 82.5} | 0.014163805206840475 | 9.429349380296516 | False | basic | public | 1646353801167 | Isaac King | This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that P does or does not equal NP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.007589918573884337, "month": -0.002963191490891498} | 0 | {"NO": 538.5617884604613, "YES": 212.00417148934233} | {"creatorFee": 2.481498068320309, "platformFee": 0.2620681325725026, "liquidityFee": 0.1866637893410216} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1025.186663789341 | IsaacKing | 1719904327198 | 1.2 | 1 | 100 | 1650314669919 | 2 | 52 | [{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672902}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1662611168230}, {"name": "Computational Complexity Theory", "slug": "computational-complexity-theory", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rkDU85UpYnk6QG5tiE8U", "createdTime": 1668753512369}] | ["mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"] | 0.1452619183626494 | 1719904324106 | 1697645212362 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1518980493796695 | Q0wHh7ns2vPSy0EHxqlE | {"NO": 1004.4841910788684, "YES": 970.3398146525883} | 0.1564070518333386 | in-2040-will-holden-karnofsky-think | 708.8332659564948 | {"NO": 336.4773274587103, "YES": 140} | In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake? | 2215054740000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 341, "YES": 140} | 0 | 9.835625198208552 | False | basic | public | 1646357295345 | Nuño Sempere | For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 446.12925989801437, "YES": 167.33284196684164} | {"creatorFee": 0.015626946191667948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1000 | NuñoSempere | 1697307520805 | 0 | 22 | 1650314576176 | 0 | 19 | [] | [] | 0.1038221698430006 | 1697307519638 | 1649456687208 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | 9MGCSjRU48Kv2Y1Xc8N2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | will-there-be-a-nuclear-disaster-in | 50 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | Will there be a nuclear disaster in Zaporizhzhia? | 1646362174527 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | NO | public | 1646357676394 | Oliver S | This market resolves to YES if the event would be considered a "level 6" event on the International Nuclear Event Scale. A level 6 event would include "Significant release of radioactive material likely to require implementation of planned countermeasures."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 46.09864424091016, "YES": 19.365304029371703} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646362174527 | 100 | OliverS | 1646357676394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 1 | 1715657669096 | 0 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12811506319452484 | BW5VCnUFXtcBhEq0iK2o | {"NO": 1010.4126638535306, "YES": 868.8392787452551} | 0.14594413140245646 | is-fasterthanlight-travel-physicall | 5500.883307263348 | {"NO": 165.5, "YES": 23.5} | Is faster-than-light travel physically possible? | 32503708800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 165.5, "YES": 23.5} | 0 | 9.185125122835117 | False | basic | public | 1646360183972 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if/when any method of transmitting physical information ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "faster-than-light", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is shown to be possible.) Valid solutions of Einstein's field equations that may or may not be possible to actually construct (such as the Alcubierre drive) do not count. Resolves to no if/when this is shown to be impossible. I will probably require that we have a proper ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Theory of Everything", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-we-have-the-theory-of-everythi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " before I feel comfortable resolving this market to no, but I could be convinced to resolve it sooner if given a compelling enough argument.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically, the information must be able to travel from object A to object B and arrive before a beam of light that was sent at the same time and faced only empty space in between. Local FTL is not required; a traversable wormhole would qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.06633997778082665, "month": -0.023380914938183256} | 0 | {"NO": 179.86058768107034, "YES": 58.0650238958015} | {"creatorFee": 26.106896227025054, "platformFee": 0.005633053296119538, "liquidityFee": 0.033798319776717226} | {"NO": 0.0009899494936611666, "YES": 0.0001414213562373095} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1719954098940 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 1650313841118 | 1 | 43 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524469}] | ["science-default"] | 1719954095426 | 1717615373026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0008857484730297596 | Tz3Zxvz2kbFLjwRbMYXg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0008857484730297596 | within-the-rules-of-magic-the-gathe | 594 | {"NO": 581.5, "YES": 12.5} | Within the rules of Magic: The Gathering, can Magmaquake kill Mistmeadow Skulk? | 1646596800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 581.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.69587449259447 | True | play | NO | public | 1646361986946 | Isaac King | Resolves to yes if it's possible to use Magmaquake to kill Mistmeadow Skulk, otherwise resolves to no. Assume the player has plenty of mana, and no other cards are involved. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 593.7378739818608, "YES": 17.678376636444877} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646600798413 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646361986946 | 0 | 9 | 1715658218246 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852244636}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 1646387247029 | 0.0008857484730297596 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07011811839741601 | vxIBDNnQBydzkSJdNFqP | {"NO": 199.47658870445116, "YES": 767.7204987528223} | 0 | will-there-be-a-nuclear-disaster-li | 1694.613717859276 | {"NO": 312.9230797503871, "YES": 80} | Will there be a nuclear disaster like Chernobyl in 2022? | 1672549140000 | yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 320, "YES": 80} | 0 | 5.623483367295957 | True | play | NO | public | 1646362130835 | Charles Vorbach | Will there be a level seven nuclear accident on the International Nuclear Scale?
The only incidents currently are Chernobyl and Fukushima. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 372.00695214900026, "YES": 126.49173886266249} | {"creatorFee": 0.5834082698631925, "platformFee": 0.07279030782473947, "liquidityFee": 0.4367418469484369} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1673494877059 | 220.43674184694845 | CharlesVorbach | 1672983515219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c | 43 | 1650314803697 | 0 | 3 | 39 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536206}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}] | ["science-default", "nuclear-risk"] | 1671154304777 | 1672983510669 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE | what-was-the-final-result-of-the-di | 318 | What was the final result of the die roll in the linked video? | 1646769600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.760938753458433 | True | play | 110b53fcd58f | public | 1646363416896 | Isaac King | https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jok9Sjak40W5X2Y8CSoP5XJe_1e4HYRs/view?usp=sharing
This market will resolve to the number that was showing on the top face of the die in the above video after it stopped moving. I'll post the full video as proof at that time.
Mar 8, 6:35pm: Closed, full video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bbhP4K-aGfcLahYDb5p7xIFbPDQ-nfvf/view?usp=sharing | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646793513673 | 900 | IsaacKing | 1646363416896 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "98b61b01a1f1", "prob": 0.024722123333728887, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3823625412822089, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.08404930856663, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363417057, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.138", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4015776952765204, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "affb82332e98", "prob": 0.16882243582136783, "text": "1", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25.651472484174743, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 126.29203170336548, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363433094, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.329", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 56.91727836263259, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f5e6a9855656", "prob": 0.15640204105850244, "text": "2", "index": 2, "poolNo": 17.316907193519224, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.40356087915643, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363438253, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.327", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 40.21766770075777, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "871495ba1326", "prob": 0.157479925635853, "text": "3", "index": 3, "poolNo": 17.50741949285564, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.66496912852796, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363442050, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.329", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 40.49483802064792, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "687576350ee6", "prob": 0.17708951386416674, "text": "4", "index": 4, "poolNo": 21.124548501471853, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 98.16285615917367, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363447535, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.329", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 45.537303565071454, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "110b53fcd58f", "prob": 0.15836992207586723, "text": "5", "index": 5, "poolNo": 17.66537641109688, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.87964539319667, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363450451, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.327", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 40.72369424808015, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e890db23dd84", "prob": 0.1571140382105138, "text": "6", "index": 6, "poolNo": 22.869256174581846, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 122.68906843508674, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363454097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:05.33", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646793513000, "totalLiquidity": 52.96987573954466, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646423940667 | {"110b53fcd58f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5076935681243318 | 8H1yAkxaFuNHJCIYT5Nj | {"NO": 117.02263930550627, "YES": 91.08765039257605} | 0 | the-next-administrator-of-the-astra | 643.2990121687791 | {"NO": 87.37292176305615, "YES": 98.23907063161792} | The next administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server is not currently a moderator of said server | 1654796241702 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 96} | 0 | 2.7215265874286825 | True | play | NO | public | 1646375326981 | aps | The current administrator and server owner, TheSkeward, intends to step down at some point this year and will choose a successor. Will the next admin be someone who does not, as of right now, have the Moderator role?
People who have the Moderator role now: TheSkeward, DFP, Starke Hathaway, zen about changing names now, Nornagest, Celestia, kallisti, DeepSpawn.
This market resolves YES if the official successor to adminship is someone *not* on that list. It resolves NO if the official successor is on that list, or TheSkeward chooses not to appoint a successor. If multiple people are officially admins at close, and one of them is not on the list, this market resolves YES.
"Officially" means they are for real actually the next admin, and excludes people temporarily appointed to, say, manipulate markets.
Mar 4, 2:41pm: I said "at close", but this market intentionally closes a day or so before 2023. The intent is to include if a successor is announced in the first days of 2023; I have to be fuzzy because there is no set date for this event. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 130.51598939829674, "YES": 131.976359462932} | {"creatorFee": 1.7358423773519696, "platformFee": 0.30707682564719596, "liquidityFee": 1.522605224289558} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1654796241702 | 101.52260522428956 | aps | 1654679114296 | 0 | 10 | 1650313817452 | 0 | 1654679114051 | 1647100514000 | 0.5698702710686196 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05559357012593216 | gMrrhWPzLlbEPXOnqWXY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05559357012593216 | will-putins-twitter-account-be-susp | 242.84665182785602 | {"NO": 181.65334817214398, "YES": 35.5} | Will Putin's Twitter account be suspended by April 1st? | 1648796400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 182.5, "YES": 35.5} | 0 | 4.821908673671055 | True | play | NO | public | 1646379874219 | Isaac King | Resolves to yes if the account at https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E is suspended or otherwise made unavailable by Twitter on April 1st. A suspension that occurs earlier and is lifted before April 1st will not count. If the account changes username before then, the new username is the one that matters. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 211.03184577112702, "YES": 51.20127928577566} | {"creatorFee": 1.3972426544286232, "platformFee": 0.3493106636071558, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649038087643 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646379874219 | 0 | 12 | 1715658521708 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498949}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.05559357012593216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9928721963902855 | KfuqfQPFbjU2srxJDHC6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9928721963902855 | communal-chess-game-will-white-win | 18339.249259782777 | {"NO": 114.43073661684161, "YES": 2628.3200036003823} | Communal Chess Game! Will White Win? | 1646527200113 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 2654} | 0 | 4.6331829490425145 | True | play | YES | public | 1646383755686 | Undox | We will play a communal chess game according to these rules:
Each user account is allowed to play one move of the game, can be black or white.
To make a move, make a trade, and then comment using PGN notation what the move is.
I will use https://www.apronus.com/chess/pgnviewer/ to validate moves. Invalid ones are ignored.
I will periodically post the valid moves so far, for everyone's convenience, so they can be pasted into the link above to view.
*Cheating*
One problem is that someone could make a trade and then back fill a comment AFTER someone has made a move. I don't like that as an allowed thing, so if someone did that, call it out and I will check the timestamps in the JSON and make a judgement. But please don't do that to save everyone time!
*Resolution*
White Wins = YES
Black Wins = NO
Stalemate/Draw = NA
Neutral trades (buy and immediately sell) to make a move a welcome
are welcome
Mar 4, 9:10pm: i will use an engine to make a move when no move has been made for 12h, idea from @Gurkenglas
Mar 5, 9:45pm: To encourage the game flow, including collisions, I am going to change the rules:
**** From now anyone can play any number of moves in this game BUT one account cannot make 2 consecutive moves. **** | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 231.47601141967536, "YES": 2732.9665136261456} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646527200113 | 100 | Undox | 1646383755686 | 0 | 19 | 1715657958785 | 0 | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969414}] | ["chess"] | 1646527154289 | 0.9928721963902855 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022850838090130773 | X9x5gzmFg2fUtH7p86IS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-russia-formally-declare-war-on | 549.0470121692639 | {"NO": 281.15193835765155, "YES": 17.801049473084532} | Will Russia formally declare war on ukariane in March 2022? | 1648753200000 | Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 279, "YES": 13} | 0 | 9.758312916691311 | True | play | NO | public | 1646385549353 | Jeremy Moonders | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 295.51857431060205, "YES": 45.19136064923232} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1651530296131 | 100 | JeremyMoonders | 1646385549353 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c | 12 | 1650314628342 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491196}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226802}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1646436612970 | False | 0.022850838090130773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06991862180252682 | hapCX1FFUWfQiHrQ2crB | {"NO": 89.02038885645439, "YES": 569.3434230328033} | 0 | will-any-other-country-openly-join | 1617.6161790135502 | {"NO": 749.2938032119595, "YES": 167.0900177744902} | Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022? | 1651345200000 | Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 739, "YES": 157} | 0 | 9.910841008904143 | True | play | NO | public | 1646385698977 | Jeremy Moonders | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 883.6186920240967, "YES": 242.8562275091829} | {"creatorFee": 0.6721486703136166, "platformFee": 0.11202477838560278, "liquidityFee": 0.6721486703136166} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 1651530254105 | 100.67214867031363 | JeremyMoonders | 1646385698977 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c | 27 | 1650314715791 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500154}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226901}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1651331830331 | 1647895046245 | False | 0.011617485592001629 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47912296375686864 | 9SqHSbrTufTtZYBTHZ9a | {"NO": 1113.9009641862951, "YES": 7.435465585636628} | 1 | will-this-market-have-at-least-m628 | 62895.03607122699 | {"NO": 279.98126169084253, "YES": 191.91035780553295} | Will this market have at least M$62,831 invested into it by Tau Day (June 28th)? | 1656411480000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311.5, "YES": 166.5} | 0 | 5.306611588786306 | True | play | YES | public | 1646387171129 | Isaac King | Tau > Pi
https://tauday.com/tau-manifesto | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 415.4005078492771, "YES": 223.88627115951886} | {"creatorFee": 80.70849039552667, "platformFee": 2.847269531869231, "liquidityFee": 13.711709279595647} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1656645044919 | 152.94322065895835 | IsaacKing | 1656511920707 | 0 | 39 | 1650313826201 | 0 | 1 | 1656406816119 | 1656511916647 | 0.9927954050200936 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05296788003874944 | ksW1GIurW2LiLFcFpOUz | {"NO": 105.28798030730732, "YES": 39.799840609788774} | 0 | will-the-upcoming-first-games-of-th | 295.00000000000006 | {"NO": 222.99999999999997, "YES": 28} | Will the upcoming first games of the 9th generation of Pokémon include more than 112 new species, not counting any possible DLCs? | 1669935540000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 223, "YES": 28} | 0 | 8.530732649239464 | True | play | NO | public | 1646389019275 | hagi | 112.25 being the previous average of new Pokémon per generation. The market will close 2 weeks before the release date. Payout will only happen at release day, any possible leaks do not count.
Regional forms and Mega-Evolutions do not count as new species.
Mar 4, 11:29am: Edit: With leaks don't count, I meant that I won't choose no if the game leaks beforehand and has less species. At the official release date every species that's in the game code and fully useable, even if not obtainable legally does count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 244.26306720572802, "YES": 57.76725716398521} | {"creatorFee": 0.6730629231364872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1689534363460 | 100 | hagi | 1689534360131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 11 | 1650314735670 | 0 | 46 | 11 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459752}] | ["nintendo"] | 1667245354494 | 1689534356761 | 0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3 | explain-market-math-geometrically | 4073.052999806724 | Explain market math geometrically. | 1647451980000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.703212103067972 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646390511535 | Gurkenglas | I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same.
Close date updated to 2022-04-11 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-16 6:33 pm
Mar 16, 6:23pm: 87 profit ever made, 3% of that is about M$3, M$3 paid out to the ante pool.
Mar 16, 6:34pm: I didn't learn anything from #3, so #2 gets the rest. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.277880007731053, "platformFee": 3.319470001932763, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647452040918 | 440 | Gurkenglas | 1646390511535 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "056821624b95", "prob": 0.0003398346105946178, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0007518937316978782, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.2117765193756944, "textFts": "", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1646390511790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647452040000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04078015327135413, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6f5b33cf0944", "prob": 0.03097269061572905, "text": "ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.8859727735201436, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.718993598701154, "textFts": "'ant':1 'market':8 'stake':2 'subsid':6", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1646390661142, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647452040000, "totalLiquidity": 4.955630498516649, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "151b82fe514a", "prob": 0.9534221613907964, "text": "DPM as a path through YES/NO sharespace", "index": 2, "poolNo": 67.43451920576832, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.2944001927474376, "textFts": "'dpm':1 'path':4 'sharespac':7 'yes/no':6", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1646390710580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647452040000, "totalLiquidity": 14.904908354945157, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7cc23e0d0564", "prob": 0.004235136326352625, "text": "Chen's discord sketch in features channel, Feb 25th https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/915138780653051910/946966415473250395/g2bMrueMdUryQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg.png", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.04419190014637811, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.390395499413666, "textFts": "'/attachments/915138780653051910/946966415473250395/g2bmruemduryqaaaabjru5erkjggg.png':12 '25th':9 'channel':7 'chen':1 'discord':3 'featur':6 'feb':8 'media.discordapp.net':11 'media.discordapp.net/attachments/915138780653051910/946966415473250395/g2bmruemduryqaaaabjru5erkjggg.png':10 'sketch':4", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1646534070854, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647452040000, "totalLiquidity": 0.67762181221642, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "394818a12321", "prob": 0.011030177056527363, "text": "Dummy answer for paying out ante shareholders", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.139785927302409, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.533258810423483, "textFts": "'answer':2 'ant':6 'dummi':1 'pay':4 'sharehold':7", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1647451901808, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.005", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647452040000, "totalLiquidity": 1.3236212467832835, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646699166476 | {"151b82fe514a": 99.52305246422894, "6f5b33cf0944": 0.4769475357710652} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb | which-market-will-make-me-the-most | 704.3735460386579 | Which market will make me the most M$? | 1646748000000 | imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.688561316003088 | True | play | 0c42a0db804e | public | 1646406581319 | Adam B | TL;DR: the winning option is the one that makes me the most money when I sell on 22/2/22.
Options should look like this:
Buy YES in "Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?"
When this market closes, on 8/3/22, I will buy M$100 of each of the top 5 highest valued options in this market, buying YES/NO in the market described by the option.
Then, exactly two weeks later, on 22/2/22 at 14:00 GMT, I'll sell all of these holdings. Whichever one makes me the most M$ will win - I will resolve this market to that option.
Specifics:
* If the market has already resolved, instead of selling I will look at how much M$ I made from the resolution.
* If I can't sell for some other reason, then that counts as M$0
* I will be doing all the buying and selling manually, as fast as I can, in the order of the options listed.
* If options don't look like the example above (or something similar that I can work out what market is intended), I'll ignore them for the purposes of choosing the top 5
This is an experiment. I'm not sure what will happen!
Mar 4, 3:27pm: Typo correction: sell on 22/3/22, not 22/2/22.
Close date updated to 2022-03-08 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-08 2:00 pm
Mar 8, 2:00pm: Ok, there goes my M$500! @Yev - I couldn't buy in this market because it had already closed, so had to ignore your answer for the purposes of choosing the top 5. See you all in a week, but looks like the grift has been successful for @Gurkenglas!
Reflecting on this - I had hoped for antics just like Gurkenglas pulled, but I thought more people would get in on the action. Fun stuff! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.74505815845369, "platformFee": 5.936264539613423, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647958026052 | 740.0000000000002 | jellyberg | 1646406581319 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0e8e1f071bf3", "prob": 0.15726560811884907, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.529122006752673, "userId": "imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.27006721795001, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646406581623, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.12", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 10.484373874589938, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bfdbd444ae1d", "prob": 0.120809211730421, "text": "Buy YES in \"Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022?\"", "index": 1, "poolNo": 10.150704131697761, "userId": "imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.87189634970002, "textFts": "'1st':15 '2022':16 'border':9 'buy':1 'citizen':12 'juli':14 'open':7 'ukrainian':11 'us':6 'yes':2", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646406705799, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.114", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 27.383421325562093, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4bd32ff50d78", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "\"Which market will make me the most M$?\"", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'m':8 'make':4 'market':2", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646406785416, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.114", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "68493f38837d", "prob": 0.004068898647927027, "text": "Buy NO in \"Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?\"", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.017338415320334397, "userId": "imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.243867581827756, "textFts": "'2022':14 'buy':1 'entir':13 'leader':8 'putin':5 'russia':10", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646407191280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.115", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2712599098618018, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "58cd62f6aec7", "prob": 0.09175922474861277, "text": "Buy #4 in \"Which market will make me the most M$?\"", "index": 4, "poolNo": 6.610917899178856, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.43543948113239, "textFts": "'4':2 'buy':1 'm':11 'make':7 'market':5", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646412077381, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.394", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 20.79875760968556, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2ca65238442f", "prob": 0.013754810879659879, "text": "Buy NO on https://manifold.markets/M/will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.23824341634390542, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.0824902839072, "textFts": "'/m/will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of':6 'buy':1 'manifold.markets':5 'manifold.markets/m/will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of':4", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646741962184, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.4", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0173722623501154, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0029c8e88584", "prob": 0.0033801256236926686, "text": "buy no on https://manifold.markets/M/more-than-2-000-000-refugees-moved", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.013123305263132866, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8693670883323916, "textFts": "'/m/more-than-2-000-000-refugees-moved':6 'buy':1 'manifold.markets':5 'manifold.markets/m/more-than-2-000-000-refugees-moved':4", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646741991457, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.399", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2253417082461779, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d56e85f3c212", "prob": 0.001697042054810189, "text": "buy #1 on https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.004664622139213091, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.7440133649450966, "textFts": "'/m/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4':6 '1':2 'buy':1 'manifold.markets':5 'manifold.markets/m/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4':4", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646742053883, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.395", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 0.11313613698734595, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4344df2c07f1", "prob": 0.03504756705081431, "text": "buy NO in https://manifold.markets/sam/will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.44528965033760126, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.260004548600387, "textFts": "'/sam/will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s':6 'buy':1 'manifold.markets':5 'manifold.markets/sam/will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s':4", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646746393803, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.399", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647958026000, "totalLiquidity": 2.3365044700542876, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28c08d7dd539", "prob": 0.02068364254232515, "text": "buy NO in https://manifold.markets/AngolaMaldives/this-market-is-a-grift-exploiting-l", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.20039541100846767, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.4881983943813, "textFts": "'/angolamaldives/this-market-is-a-grift-exploiting-l':6 'buy':1 'manifold.markets':5 'manifold.markets/angolamaldives/this-market-is-a-grift-exploiting-l':4", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646747704945, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.4", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, 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18.81323003506837, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646748080413 | {"0c42a0db804e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.022914004888100057 | KfyD8ripzfW6SdCx6qOF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.022914004888100057 | will-team-cherry-set-a-release-date | 110 | {"NO": 102.75, "YES": 7.25} | Will Team Cherry set a release date/release window for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of March? | 1648767540000 | AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 102.75, "YES": 7.25} | 0 | 4.988396119230901 | True | play | NO | public | 1646417366450 | Angola Maldives | This market resolves to YES if Team Cherry either set a release date, or officially forecast a release window (eg. 'Q2 2022') for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of March. If they release it without prior announcement in March it also resolves to YES, since releasing it sets the current date as the release date. Otherwise it resolves to NO. UTC time for precise end of month, market will resolve early in the event of a positive result. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 108.73341483072257, "YES": 16.65126122100065} | {"creatorFee": 0.2900000000000002, "platformFee": 0.07250000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648930096983 | 100 | AngolaMaldives | 1646417366450 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c | 7 | 1715657961086 | 0 | 1 | 0.022914004888100057 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E | when-will-the-mlb-regular-season-st | 81 | When will the MLB regular season start this year? | 1647018664196 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.093524348212262 | True | play | db96118b8e10 | public | 1646420138528 | BCG | The answer closest to the day the first MLB game is played will be the winner. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647018664196 | 280 | BruceGrugett | 1646420138528 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8c2603683c8e", "prob": 0.38103947568968144, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.85540187663348, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 67.98991480840344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E", "createdTime": 1646420138711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.154", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647018664000, "totalLiquidity": 53.3455265965554, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef8d8dc63205", "prob": 0.16765736930345987, "text": "May 1", "index": 1, "poolNo": 10.534427471091492, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.29864401784602, "textFts": "'1':2 'may':1", "contractId": "ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E", "createdTime": 1646420167239, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.154", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647018664000, "totalLiquidity": 23.472031702484383, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f1dc9b24ee48", "prob": 0.018442310623380583, "text": "April 30", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.35391023272089284, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.83621403902934, "textFts": "'30':2 'april':1", "contractId": "ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E", "createdTime": 1646421054429, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.154", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647018664000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5819234872732815, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "db96118b8e10", "prob": 0.4328608443834782, "text": "April 7 ", "index": 3, "poolNo": 52.94264966169147, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.36605612364573, "textFts": "'7':2 'april':1", "contractId": "ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E", "createdTime": 1646972975200, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.156", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647018664000, "totalLiquidity": 60.600518213686954, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404719}] | ["sports-default"] | 1646973011601 | {"db96118b8e10": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9545378782914079 | bay36sgqG3YKlF7m3tuy | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9545378782914079 | if-i-make-an-faq-about-manifold-fea | 566.8837084467411 | {"NO": 61.96816526225214, "YES": 343.14812629100663} | If I make an FAQ about Manifold features and mechanics and host it on my website, will people find it useful? | 1648753200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 348} | 0 | 4.7313636176565215 | True | play | YES | public | 1646420922879 | Isaac King | Resolves to yes if, in my subjective judgement, enough people appreciated the information in the FAQ that it was worth my time to create and maintain it.
Mar 4, 11:08am: Resolves to N/A if I decide not to create the FAQ. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 86.3784945470379, "YES": 395.80143455429203} | {"creatorFee": 2.2846516621303468, "platformFee": 0.5711629155325867, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648830430048 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646420922879 | 0 | 15 | 1715658403607 | 0 | 1 | 1647394591329 | 0.9545378782914079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6805534259578699 | ZWgF0soANxLQlyWwMsGW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6805534259578699 | will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-150 | 60 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 37} | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Indoor Championships 2022? | 1647730740000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23, "YES": 37} | 0 | 5.217485193706059 | True | play | NO | public | 1646422560148 | howtodowtle | Resolves as "YES" if Jakob Ingebrigtsen is declared (by World Athletics) the winner of the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Indoor Championships 2022 scheduled on March 20, 2022.
Resolves as "NO" in all other cases including: disqualification, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not make it to the final, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not start the race, another runner is declared the winner, the event gets cancelled or postponed past the resolution date (March 20, 2022). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 33.91232814862465, "YES": 49.49822219575164} | {"creatorFee": 1.48, "platformFee": 0.37, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006782329983125268, "YES": 0.0007348469228349535} | 0 | 1647848150054 | 100 | howtodowtle | 1646422560148 | 0 | 1 | 1715658340280 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404469}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.6805534259578699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46621934618644006 | Z3rXrHHMbp1QV2n7qccn | {"NO": 201.0455420528311, "YES": 93.56300831518521} | 0 | will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-150-017756145788 | 265.17979750113795 | {"NO": 49.5, "YES": 26.5} | Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Outdoor Championships 2022? | 1658181540000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 49.5, "YES": 26.5} | 0 | 2.227888685582732 | True | play | NO | public | 1646422936188 | howtodowtle | Resolves as "YES" if Jakob Ingebrigtsen is declared (by World Athletics) the winner of the 1500 m final at the World Athletics (Outdoor) Championships 2022 scheduled on July 19, 2022 in Oregon.
Resolves as "NO" in all other cases including: disqualification, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not make it to the final, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not start the race, another runner is declared the winner, the event gets cancelled or postponed past the scheduled end date of the championships (July 24, 2022). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 62.25029317673934, "YES": 43.60106650541933} | {"creatorFee": 2.8753474573398266, "platformFee": 0.33464555655900496, "liquidityFee": 2.00787333935403} | {"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849} | 0 | 1658351629289 | 148.00787333935403 | howtodowtle | 1658141385432 | 0 | 4 | 1650314645554 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404328}] | ["sports-default"] | 1658141381527 | 1657820220457 | 0.6523914090125048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.897003946570865 | FFN9TwheXYAoazDqBrT1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.897003946570865 | will-i-reach-a-100-day-streak-on-du | 389.66825091743954 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 170.33174908256044} | Will I reach a 100 day streak on Duolingo? | 1647039663504 | V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 175} | 0 | 4.819216361616203 | True | play | NO | public | 1646424131707 | comsynthus | I'm currently on 93 days. My streak goes up every day which I use Duolingo.
I can also buy streak freezes, so that if I don't use Duolingo for a day, the streak freeze gets used up but I don't lose my streak. Days where I use a streak freeze do not count toward the streak number. Streak freezes cost 10 lingots. I currently have a streak freeze and 153 lingots.
I reach a streak of 100 if I use Duolingo for 7 more days. I fail if I don't use Duolingo enough and run out of lingots or forget to buy a streak freeze and lose my streak.
In the past, I typically used around 1 streak freeze every couple weeks. However, I've been more busy recently since it's the end of the semester and I've used 4 streak freezes for the last 4 days. I've never forgotten to buy a streak freeze before, but I could see it happening. The beginning of this streak was when I first started using Duolingo, so I don't have any information from past streaks to draw on.
This resolves YES if I reach 100 days and NO if I lose my streak. I think this should resolve by March 26 at the latest if I use 15 streak freezes then use Duolingo for 7 days after that, but I gave it a few extra days in case I messed up my understanding of how Duolingo streaks work.
Mar 11, 2:56pm: Resolved NO
Unfortunately lost my streak. Not exactly sure what happened, but I must have forgotten to buy a streak freeze. I did pull an all-nighter which messed up my sense of time, so I probably thought I already got a streak freeze for the day but it was actually for yesterday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 208.67779066728335} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647039663504 | 100 | comsynthus | 1646424131707 | 0 | 5 | 1715657839681 | 0 | 0.897003946570865 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN | test-95ceb33748f2 | 40 | test | 1646424273659 | V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.419168393434646 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646424224092 | comsynthus | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646424273659 | 280 | comsynthus | 1646424224092 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "40ad70ad6487", "prob": 0.06249999999999999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2592402852876594, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.88860427931489, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN", "createdTime": 1646424224280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.564", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646424273000, "totalLiquidity": 8.749999999999998, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "206ee1fcadb8", "prob": 0.1875, "text": "test1", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.610092112150612, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.643732485985986, "textFts": "'test1':1", "contractId": "Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN", "createdTime": 1646424231241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.564", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646424273000, "totalLiquidity": 26.25, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3cdc2cb83f1b", "prob": 0.3125, "text": "test2", "index": 2, "poolNo": 29.496243982766842, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.89173676208705, "textFts": "'test2':1", "contractId": "Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN", "createdTime": 1646424234311, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.669", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646424273000, "totalLiquidity": 43.75, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c45f53b1db21", "prob": 0.4375, "text": "test3", "index": 3, "poolNo": 54.01742260090205, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.4509719154455, "textFts": "'test3':1", "contractId": "Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN", "createdTime": 1646424236800, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.669", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646424273000, "totalLiquidity": 61.25, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"206ee1fcadb8": 37.5, "3cdc2cb83f1b": 62.5} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8504728298958113 | l9QgRXLBEf5nqFXH9Ka4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8504728298958113 | will-i-use-this-website-more-times | 1053.126958030255 | {"NO": 137.5, "YES": 365.373041969745} | will i use this website more times this year? | 1648826878902 | nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 137.5, "YES": 379.5} | 0 | 4.709821160686462 | True | play | YES | public | 1646424722848 | . | i'm new, i'm learning. so i really don't know how this works... anyway looks cool. i like it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 194.45507193308174, "YES": 463.75589170002866} | {"creatorFee": 4.978400190235501, "platformFee": 1.2446000475588752, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648826878902 | 100 | DG | 1646424722848 | 0 | 14 | 1715658612114 | 0 | 1647665159532 | 0.8504728298958113 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5 | which-team-from-path-c-of-the-europ | 402.66833735524676 | Which team from Path C of the European qualifier playoffs will qualify for the World Cup? | 1648097940000 | qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.813528882542507 | True | play | 2bc7fc88a6d2 | public | 1646431224087 | Alex Desjardins | This market will be resolved according to the team that wins the bracket containing Portugal, Turkey, Italy, and North Macedonia.
The market closes the night before the playoff games start, and will be resolved once they conclude. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.693266505790129, "platformFee": 1.6733166264475323, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648773633316 | 420.0000000000001 | AlexDesjardins | 1646431224087 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwjGzYGd26to92fNpH-ekItGncUD85RFuPuVbM9=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dc4f022140a9", "prob": 0.2694288876351618, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.452743776980874, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.3240659042955, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431224399, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.764", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 28.739081347750595, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b3dba024afe2", "prob": 0.3238394830422382, "text": "Italy", "index": 1, "poolNo": 32.87011430821122, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.63114180614586, "textFts": "'itali':1", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431245271, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.758", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 47.49645751286161, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2bc7fc88a6d2", "prob": 0.3667760467279929, "text": "Portugal", "index": 2, "poolNo": 40.940599908862815, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70.68228352121307, "textFts": "'portug':1", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431254847, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.758", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 53.7938201867723, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "07e7dd3ff79b", "prob": 0.01755356489878733, "text": "Turkey", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.3441319339386238, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.26054300946263, "textFts": "'turkey':1", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431267566, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.756", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 2.574522851822142, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "84920151646d", "prob": 0.009974664859728938, "text": "North Macedonia", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.14684384123392286, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.574837869274528, "textFts": "'macedonia':2 'north':1", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431280452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.757", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4629508460935778, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "73869be1e60c", "prob": 0.012427352836090661, "text": "None of them", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.2044630518313044, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.24820024083042, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431316186, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.757", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648773633000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8226784159599638, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"2bc7fc88a6d2": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4745225379666555 | 4k8ZeptYsc5Ks5THVe84 | {"NO": 38.99004122051803, "YES": 319.5130773993864} | 0.09925855593857451 | will-manifold-create-a-public-chang | 543.03762884024 | {"NO": 48.49242243381934, "YES": 51.24817335201615} | Will Manifold create a public changelog? | 1652943540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 51} | 0 | 3.1968729225996024 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646432832871 | Daniel Reeves | For example, here's Beeminder's public changelog: https://changelog.beeminder.com | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 71.65200350166327, "YES": 69.3857069150602} | {"creatorFee": 3.215234241855249, "platformFee": 0.5603472601570065, "liquidityFee": 2.9215356036816673} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652990791794 | 102.92153560368166 | dreev | 1652990779242 | 0 | 12 | 1650313796462 | 0 | 1 | 1652941037324 | 1652990775570 | 0.09925855593857451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8835114136029733 | 4vBuOvXMvpN7tw3UYflj | {"NO": 368.56813647985575, "YES": 84.19885090310079} | 1 | will-manifold-implement-a-feature-t | 938.1304041408633 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 362.00780589795465} | Will Manifold implement a feature to be alerted when a market probability hits some threshold? | 1658892870989 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 365} | 0 | 6.991975443811765 | True | play | YES | public | 1646433510844 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: Sometimes markets aren't liquid enough to place a significant bet. Like 50 mana (ie, 50 cents) is enough to move the price to my probability estimate and then there's nothing else to do despite much remaining disagreement. Sometimes I buy a bunch of both YES and NO to subsidize the market if I want to incentivize participation. But sometimes I'd like to just set an alert for myself, to be notified if the market probability leaves some range. (Or maybe limit orders are the more elegant way to deal with that? But I probably want to manually review why the price changed before deciding to move it again.) This resolves to YES iff there's a feature to either be alerted or to automatically trade when the market probability hits an amount that the user can specify. Mar 5, 3:24am: Or if there's some other way to know what markets are out of line with my own probability estimates. It need not involve alerts or limit orders. I now think the best solution is to let you log your own probabilities separate from making trades and then show you markets sorted by your own subjective expected profit.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-08-06 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 147.44643853419512, "YES": 406.0679205957526} | {"creatorFee": 3.934533934001611, "platformFee": 0.010832363385917743, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1658892870989 | 100 | dreev | 1658892341716 | 0 | 17 | 1650313797849 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557051}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 1658892340439 | 1658890022562 | 0.7555231824866078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03499712867562758 | slKEXi9NCXqpbZ5E0qXu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03499712867562758 | will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly | 22948.71839012379 | {"NO": 7363.885886193438, "YES": 1159.3294936458472} | Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of March 2022? | 1648785540000 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7437, "YES": 1143} | 0 | 4.62096936482216 | True | play | NO | public | 1646435143495 | Andy Martin | Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP -
> The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of global sanctions for domestic investors.
>
> The Moscow Exchange said on Friday that trading across all markets will be shut March 5, 7 and 8. Since the Moscow Exchange’s equity trading was last open a week ago, Russian stocks listed in London erased more than 90% of their value before getting suspended, global index providers announced plans to remove the nation’s shares from their indexes and European companies with business exposure to the country lost more than $100 billion in market value.
>
> ...
>
> While a rare occasion, countries have halted stock trading in the past due to unusual circumstances.
>
> The New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange and other bourses were shut in 2001 after the 9/11 attack. Trading in U.S. shares resumed after being closed for four trading days, with the S&P 500 slumping about 5%.
>
> Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year.
Mar 4, 6:08pm: Related market with "End of May 2022" deadline: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-bdf45788c3cd | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8372.744080319755, "YES": 1594.4823683663608} | {"creatorFee": 49.38780132501618, "platformFee": 12.346950331254044, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1648815793595 | 100 | AndyMartin | 1646435143495 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 50 | 1715658792357 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576655}] | ["economics-default"] | 1648304165889 | 0.03499712867562758 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5157298608051257 | GQxmgWTLriVbR5PEPmek | {"NO": 51.14030745230898, "YES": 252.23553259277642} | 0 | will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-bdf45788c3cd | 1838.5257625552974 | {"NO": 289.93193529784236, "YES": 535.9588342172607} | Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of May 2022? | 1653941355813 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 340, "YES": 525} | 0 | 2.7907361701855775 | True | play | NO | public | 1646435519423 | Andy Martin | Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP -
> The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of global sanctions for domestic investors.
>
> The Moscow Exchange said on Friday that trading across all markets will be shut March 5, 7 and 8. Since the Moscow Exchange’s equity trading was last open a week ago, Russian stocks listed in London erased more than 90% of their value before getting suspended, global index providers announced plans to remove the nation’s shares from their indexes and European companies with business exposure to the country lost more than $100 billion in market value.
>
> ...
>
> While a rare occasion, countries have halted stock trading in the past due to unusual circumstances.
>
> The New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange and other bourses were shut in 2001 after the 9/11 attack. Trading in U.S. shares resumed after being closed for four trading days, with the S&P 500 slumping about 5%.
>
> Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year.
Related market with "End of March" deadline: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly
Mar 26, 10:08am: re: resolution criteria and definitions of "mostly open", see comments on https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 567.4206339871752, "YES": 600.1091892967313} | {"creatorFee": 7.898653028633039, "platformFee": 1.500158737730922, "liquidityFee": 5.69405423312806} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1653941355813 | 103.43825421387726 | AndyMartin | 1653183675226 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 16 | 1650313875104 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567607}] | ["economics-default"] | 1653183673939 | 1649105335098 | 0.17757706341514112 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7947116340015237 | cp1LzhHAo44cW8Fau63C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7947116340015237 | conditional-on-manifold-adding-a-fe | 257.92012949888266 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 164.07987050111734} | Conditional on Manifold adding a feature for decision markets, will Manifold remain on its rocketship trajectory? [see paired market] | 1656658740000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 166} | 0 | 4.248655835595639 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646437945699 | Daniel Reeves | Conditional market aka decision market!
Currently there's a ton of excitement swirling around Manifold Markets and about the potential it's showing. If my sense is that that excitement/potential has increased AND ALSO Manifold has implemented a conditional markets feature, then I will resolve to YES.
Being a conditional market, I will resolve to N/A if Manifold HAS NOT implemented such a feature more directly than the way I'm doing it here. Which is to create two separate markets for the two possible decisions, and link them to each other. The complement of this market is here: [link to come after I create it]
https://manifold.markets/dreev/conditional-on-manifold-not-adding
PS: I just found https://manifold.markets/analytics so I should be able to pick a more objective metric from there. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 90.65415981490037, "YES": 178.36529384591438} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1656662958138 | 100 | dreev | 1646437945699 | 0 | 6 | 1650314674788 | 0 | 1 | 1648798468711 | 0.7947116340015237 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3816916252103339 | lk4pN8EWEY3YJanWgOX1 | {"NO": 128.65321234917397, "YES": 66.48868782731823} | 0.5443120330182751 | conditional-on-manifold-not-adding | 52.55451577994361 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5.445484220056395} | Conditional on Manifold NOT adding a feature for decision markets, will Manifold remain on its rocketship trajectory? [see paired market] | 1656658740000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.991204099250214 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646437954646 | Daniel Reeves | Conditional market aka decision market!
Currently there's a ton of excitement swirling around Manifold Markets and about the potential it's showing. If my sense is that that excitement/potential has increased despite Manifold NOT implementing a conditional markets feature, then I will resolve to YES.
Being a conditional market, I will resolve to N/A if Manifold HAS IN FACT implemented such a feature more directly than the way I'm doing it here. Which is to create two separate markets for the two possible decisions, and link them to each other. The complement of this market is here: https://manifold.markets/dreev/conditional-on-manifold-adding-a-fe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.000666669752858, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 1.3467876508260346, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1656663123017 | 100 | dreev | 1656212800933 | 0 | 3 | 1650314740972 | 0 | 1 | 1656212800807 | 1646497647075 | 0.5443120330182751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0028711211076336398 | ATpDRXMKxNJmRDT7r5Qi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0028711211076336398 | is-23-32 | 3688.022656393553 | {"NO": 109.67241514263375, "YES": 22.304928463812868} | Is 2↑↑↑↑3 > 3↑↑↑↑2? | 1646524800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 125, "YES": 5} | 0 | 4.935332830064257 | True | play | NO | public | 1646443234649 | Isaac King | Resolves to yes if 2↑↑↑↑3 is greater than 3↑↑↑↑2. Otherwise resolves to no.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knuth%27s_up-arrow_notation | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 131.7887445140947, "YES": 7.071774918646664} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646536686201 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646443234649 | 0 | 6 | 1715657709773 | 0 | 1 | 1646460400504 | 0.0028711211076336398 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018395277229430178 | wbQc9FAmG6YTURUGQzCH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.018395277229430178 | will-the-linked-market-fall-to-less | 344920.6867425903 | {"NO": 25589.82463523068, "YES": 9541.48862217911} | Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time? | 1647023589496 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33632, "YES": 1602} | 0 | 4.616543553404612 | True | play | NO | public | 1646443448450 | Matthew Barnett | Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a
In the discussion, Gurkenglas said,
> Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right?
> TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes
> TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally
> From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.
Yet at the same time, a whale keeps buying YES.
This question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Mar 4, 8:31pm: To clarify, TheSkeward is the current administrator.
Mar 4, 8:44pm: Ignore the previous clarification. It was redundant.
Mar 5, 10:34pm: If there's a dispute, we'll use the numbers from the API to settle this question. I will not round numbers. If the question's at 14.9% for 12 hours, that will count too. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 34786.20366234978, "YES": 4762.02733853843} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647023589496 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646443448450 | 0 | 30 | 1715658883991 | 0 | 1646707723037 | 0.018395277229430178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI | what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra | 686.9597786969965 | What will the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit be on March 13th, 2022? | 1647216016186 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.72103050332953 | True | play | 207e7c23ac34 | public | 1646445823700 | William Kiely | At some point on March 13th, I will add up the Total Profit of the Top 20 traders and will resolve this question to whichever range the true value falls in.
I'm intentionally avoiding setting a specific time in order to make it harder for top traders to momentarily manipulate the answer for their benefit.
As of the writing of this question, the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit is M$ 63,395.
In the event that this information is no longer available or Manifold Markets does not exist, this will resolve N/A.
Related Question for April 13th, 2022: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra-7bdca072caec | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647216016186 | 620 | WilliamKiely | 1646445823700 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5fd0fa149a81", "prob": 0.0005003879020461124, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0010076539141278167, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.012737902298296, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445823984, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.045034911184150116, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6bca6ef6e2f2", "prob": 0.002395050951546094, "text": "Less than M$ 60,000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.015255842279042024, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.354480162374142, "textFts": "'000':5 '60':4 'less':1 'm':3", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445864826, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.838", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3113566237009922, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "deed07d5ef12", "prob": 0.00011508921747060584, "text": "M$ 60,000 to 69,999", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00016051672887773874, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3945550996036016, "textFts": "'000':3 '60':2 '69':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445950715, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.882", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01496159827117876, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c4ca42e3dae2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "M$ 70,000 to 79,999", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'000':3 '70':2 '79':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445966105, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.884", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "884dbd24d5ea", "prob": 0.005151527832168424, "text": "M$ 80,000 to 89,999", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.06301943838456607, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.170135547412997, "textFts": "'000':3 '80':2 '89':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445988179, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.884", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8757597314686321, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9e5c3eac434", "prob": 0.004094653248459504, "text": "M$ 90,000 to 99,999", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.04463397688553035, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.855917102091086, "textFts": "'000':3 '90':2 '99':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646446011896, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.882", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6960910522381157, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "207e7c23ac34", "prob": 0.983176557400021, "text": "M$ 100,000 or more", "index": 6, "poolNo": 37.07507206132283, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.634403192406444, "textFts": "'000':3 '100':2 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646446048583, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.884", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 4.849798353993923, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "61c4bff0be99", "prob": 0.004466733448288375, "text": "M$ 70,000 to 79,999", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.05086348204813682, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.336312994226127, "textFts": "'000':3 '70':2 '79':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646446231925, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.882", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647216016000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7593446862090237, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1647216007957 | {"207e7c23ac34": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt | what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra-7bdca072caec | 173.80960970217413 | What will the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit be on April 13th, 2022? | 1649912340000 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.040411142683414 | True | play | 636c6f86e78c | public | 1646446579815 | William Kiely | At some point on April 13th, I will add up the Total Profit of the Top 20 traders and will resolve this question to whichever range the true value falls in.
I'm intentionally avoiding setting a specific time in order to make it harder for top traders to momentarily manipulate the answer for their benefit.
As of the writing of this question, the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit is M$ 63,395.
In the event that this information is no longer available or Manifold Markets does not exist, this will resolve N/A.
Related Question for March 13th, 2022: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra
Apr 14, 3:05pm: Resolved -- Summed to M$ 137,513 at ~3:05PM CST on 4/14/2022. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.14999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649966870883 | 420 | WilliamKiely | 1646446579815 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a0d31830fe8c", "prob": 0.011357564073042517, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.11825487191686522, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.29373762544851, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446580044, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 1.103306224238416, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d1b5b2d15e5f", "prob": 0.0023850884553389285, "text": "Less than M$ 60,000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.011328858231533215, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.738540357802784, "textFts": "'000':5 '60':4 'less':1 'm':3", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446608761, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.23169430709006733, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6ad9d4377e8c", "prob": 0.0026122397367997784, "text": "M$ 60,000 to 69,999", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.012986687878947455, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.958489588206371, "textFts": "'000':3 '60':2 '69':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446623074, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.25376043157483563, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fc167a8ef483", "prob": 0.0028393910182606293, "text": "M$ 70,000 to 79,999", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.014718587090237973, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.16899404550602, "textFts": "'000':3 '70':2 '79':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446630441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.275826556059604, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2bf0d57a7e61", "prob": 0.0030665422997214796, "text": "M$ 80,000 to 89,999", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.01652156664287197, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.371164311478735, "textFts": "'000':3 '80':2 '89':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446650195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.998", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2978926805443723, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8bef2cb813d1", "prob": 0.0032936935811823296, "text": "M$ 90,000 to 99,999", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.01839297835516845, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.565908627675217, "textFts": "'000':3 '90':2 '99':5 '999':6 'm':1", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446660234, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.002", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3199588050291406, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "636c6f86e78c", "prob": 0.9744454808356543, "text": "M$ 100,000 or more", "index": 6, "poolNo": 40.57766896559378, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0641363109781083, "textFts": "'000':3 '100':2 'm':1", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446677990, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.997", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649966870000, "totalLiquidity": 6.571162070831752, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"636c6f86e78c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9222302432045586 | PHRWRhwjugsi23OtsUbM | {"NO": 161.72247234066867, "YES": 97.21110354821786} | 1 | by-june-2022-will-putins-decision-t | 1966.8541848684897 | {"NO": 168.78654068238257, "YES": 1216.590760170155} | By June 2022, will Putin's decision to invade Ukraine be regarded as a major strategic blunder? | 1653938157130 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 154, "YES": 1222} | 0 | 8.797342558836018 | True | play | YES | public | 1646446736897 | Andy Martin | This will be resolved on 2022-06-01 from the perspective of an open-minded westerner.
If it seems extremely likely the end result is clear before June, I may resolve this early.
In the case that it's ambiguous (ex: it's June 2022 and it's not really clear whether the decision to invade was a "major strategic blunder" or not; it's June 2022 and it seems like a "minor strategic blunder"; etc), I'll resolve this NO instead of N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 386.50916016800176, "YES": 1330.369762727374} | {"creatorFee": 0.7305862428025269, "platformFee": 0.13729012908741742, "liquidityFee": 0.5442771793585719} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1653938157130 | 100.52365982939435 | AndyMartin | 1653163132435 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 40 | 1650314569336 | 0 | 1653163131184 | 1652178868927 | 0.951756084952532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05608254925505595 | fQhy9nDGdOu8QTUBEN25 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05608254925505595 | will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a | 1011.8385683154652 | {"NO": 810, "YES": 162.16143168453476} | Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022? | 1649031253791 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 810, "YES": 165} | 0 | 4.665248163120988 | True | play | NO | public | 1646447280410 | Andy Martin | From https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/russian-convoy-stalled-outside-kyiv-intl/index.html -
> On Thursday, US intelligence suggested that the convoy was still stalled some distance from Kyiv, backing claims made by both the Ukrainian government and UK's defense ministry.
>
> "We still assess that the convoy that everybody's been focused on is stalled. We have no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims that they have, that they have contributed to it being stalled by attacking it," a senior US official told reporters.
>
> Earlier in the day, the UK's defense ministry said the convoy appears to have stalled some 30 kilometers (19 miles) outside Kyiv and had made "little discernible progress" over the past three days, citing intelligence.
>
> "The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30 km from the center of the city, having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days," the UK statement said.
By May 2022, will this convoy have had a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine?
In the case of an ambiguous result (ex: only ~10% of the vehicles are actually needed/used; the convoy is used but only with minor effect; etc) this will resolve NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 944.5084371536667, "YES": 230.22511966404875} | {"creatorFee": 6.486457267381389, "platformFee": 1.6216143168453472, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1649031253791 | 100 | AndyMartin | 1646447280410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 11 | 1715658505227 | 0 | 1647096917626 | 0.05608254925505595 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45000000000000007 | 8sXQ2AB8PqQNT4etcMAX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.45000000000000007 | how-many-moves-to-resolve-the-commu | 50 | {"NO": 27.500000000000004, "YES": 22.5} | How many moves to resolve the communal chess game? | 1646476792993 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27.500000000000004, "YES": 22.5} | 0 | 5.303295056474187 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646449678882 | Undox | Resolves to PROB the total number of moves in the game. I think a lot of moves will be needed as people play badly on purpose!
https://manifold.markets/Martin/communal-chess-game-will-white-win
Mar 5, 9:39pm: Not much interesting in this so aborting it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 37.08173405532702, "YES": 33.5416904828901} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646476792993 | 100 | Undox | 1646449678882 | 0 | 1 | 1715657655435 | 0 | 0.45000000000000007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11999999999999998 | vpANcCWhbEHNqk1fF2nP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11999999999999998 | will-the-sun-explode-randomly-befor | 2420 | {"NO": 352, "YES": 2068} | will the sun explode randomly before election day 2022 | 1646453459381 | 2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 352, "YES": 2068} | 0 | 4.6355669373858985 | True | play | YES | public | 1646453256843 | powdered sugar | if you survive, you win the market | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 375.23419886902633, "YES": 2390.732970450719} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 1646453459381 | 100 | powderedsugar | 1646453256843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c | 3 | 1715658855441 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511028}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.11999999999999998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | phna23y3GfQJOFSbyNx9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01 | will-i-among-us-potion | 515 | {"NO": 486.09, "YES": 22.91} | will I among us potion | 1646453612565 | 2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 486.09, "YES": 22.91} | 0 | 4.7087340165323495 | True | play | NO | public | 1646453523480 | powdered sugar | OH NO GUYS DON'T DRINK IT | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 488.53982660678747, "YES": 142.86656648778958} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646453612565 | 100 | powderedsugar | 1646453523480 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c | 2 | 1715658717385 | 0 | 1646453635714 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9899999999999999 | WLJsOA1rq7DKGGRNFC1v | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9899999999999999 | will-the-universe-end-in-the-next-f | 1713 | {"NO": 5.090000000000003, "YES": 1507.9099999999999} | will the universe end in the next five minutes | 1646453736370 | 2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.090000000000003, "YES": 1507.9099999999999} | 0 | 4.647622544147873 | True | play | YES | public | 1646453665182 | powdered sugar | OH NO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.90010000000018, "YES": 1512.1445717328056} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1646453736370 | 100 | powderedsugar | 1646453665182 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c | 2 | 1715658261802 | 0 | 0.9899999999999999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8181966929302383 | VT7sRvEzwV2lxahbT8cW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8181966929302383 | is-gay | 51 | {"NO": 1.1000000000000014, "YES": 9.9} | is gay? | 1646459940000 | TDIuMlTJ79cHpGRReAs0sk6AWiZ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.1000000000000014, "YES": 9.9} | 0 | 4.6597858935836864 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646453815033 | Quandale Dingle | no
Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4.690650275814644, "YES": 9.950869358503306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1680902560591 | 100 | MattiasjohnsonB | 1654794755949 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVFZk6muozi73TcmSYjQl-Gy8KJmT8kuO3myMs0g=s96-c | 3 | 1650314617409 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779632069}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1654794754425 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3534039640795292 | CaPQ3UAeu1SpcbcjtQ1X | {"NO": 298.48920170781446, "YES": 13.522582669908644} | 1 | will-any-show-on-netflix-reach-half | 320 | {"NO": 94.05, "YES": 25.95} | Will any show on Netflix reach half of Squid Game's total watch time (in its first 28 days) before June 30, 2022? | 1656647940000 | IBBJKkcGoLenzHilUamT1BVcqvm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 94.05, "YES": 25.95} | 0 | 4.1081355197846365 | True | play | YES | public | 1646458534789 | UberEleet Haxx0r | This question resolves to YES, if on midnight of June 30th, 2022, the site https://top10.netflix.com/ lists any shows other than Squid Game with over 825,225,000 hours watched in the first 28 days, in either the English TV or non-English TV section.
For comparison, the top English show (Bridgerton: Season 1) is at 625 million. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 96.49423869304323, "YES": 71.3379415181711} | {"creatorFee": 1.5107982921855578, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1661643733661 | 100 | UberEleetHaxx0r | 1656212605986 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTzNMa50WNRh6IChv0JHHc57HC0A8CnJuInlpl=s96-c | 3 | 1650313848386 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1656212604795 | 0.9234563750633655 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5270211778254585 | NxoUiRQZH7dXrK5KtMPV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | this-market-will-resolve-early-with | 2818.341448239123 | {"NO": 272.8765354258733, "YES": 408.7820163350033} | This market will resolve early with probability 50%. Will it resolve early? | 1647147540000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 306, "YES": 376} | 0 | 2.7807099976900953 | True | play | NO | public | 1646462729700 | Jenny | When this market closes, I will flip a fair coin.
If it lands heads, I will resolve this market to YES soon after closing.
If it lands tails, I will resolve this market to NO about a year after closing.
Mar 12, 10:00pm: I will go to https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet and take the rightmost digit of the first hash after this market closes. Even = heads = YES, odd = tails = NO.
Mar 13, 12:16am: The hash is 00000000000000000009554288443c39f85f3e531e9e60c48db2d01a22585b81, which is odd. I'll resolve this market to NO in a year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 468.8008304906979, "YES": 494.85909695394196} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1681016541961 | 100 | Jenny | 1681016718500 | 0 | 33 | 1650314561416 | 0 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1664067479758}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663707027033}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1666145754021}] | ["fun", "gambling", "interest-rates"] | 1681016714248 | 0.53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07358358593089577 | GoKyAi5PdhIft9JWa5M4 | {"NO": 275.32019705686605, "YES": 774.458306065933} | 0.02746133299108805 | will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of | 2311.176116767715 | {"NO": 437.04870123587995, "YES": 74.62156423257767} | Will Putin get killed by the end of 2022? | 1663277493837 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 459, "YES": 83} | 0 | 1.3845825777055003 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646466955899 | Account deletion requested | Replaces improperly resolved https://manifold.markets/niki/will-putin-get-killed-by-2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 482.5347104641107, "YES": 170.19911017220306} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1663277493837 | 300 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277502045 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 1650313876894 | 0 | 51 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929569}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479511}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663103497163}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225884}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1663277492294 | 1663277499976 | False | 0.02746246046016976 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.00445320355297042 | jfo3gUuPCS0DYYWdzWZo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.00445320355297042 | will-russia-occupy-kyiv-as-well-as | 3994.886918467943 | {"NO": 3101.59768008877, "YES": 181.5154014432869} | Will Russia occupy Kyiv as well as at least 70% of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory on April 15th? | 1650059940000 | EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3139, "YES": 180} | 0 | 4.6302328721541635 | True | play | NO | public | 1646473190666 | Emanuel Rylke | https://twitter.com/SamoBurja/status/1499883211748433932 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3275.795737275659, "YES": 219.08984458595978} | {"creatorFee": 6.3671349312514485, "platformFee": 1.5917837328128621, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1650086940840 | 100 | EmanuelRylke | 1646473190666 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | 33 | 1715658580022 | 0 | 1 | 1648289340751 | 0.00445320355297042 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn | what-song-is-going-round-my-head-ri | 54 | What song is going round my head right now? | 1646478784983 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.266106886576926 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646478600985 | Undox | At the time of writing this question what song is repeating in my head. I provide the options, one is correct. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646478784983 | 300 | Undox | 1646478600985 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2c206319a24e", "prob": 0.8573388203017832, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.96723879500236, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.9833485354883935, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn", "createdTime": 1646478601183, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.819", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646478784000, "totalLiquidity": 17.119341563786016, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3b7b1021e397", "prob": 0.03463648834019204, "text": "Radiohead - Creep", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.7872933579087468, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.942879232803193, "textFts": "'creep':2 'radiohead':1", "contractId": "tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn", "createdTime": 1646478692826, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.825", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646478784000, "totalLiquidity": 4.156378600823045, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "74e450c77e50", "prob": 0.035322359396433474, "text": "Duran Duran - Reflex", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.8110818767073791, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.15119727357143, "textFts": "'duran':1,2 'reflex':3", "contractId": "tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn", "createdTime": 1646478699856, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.819", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646478784000, "totalLiquidity": 4.238683127572017, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "acbe83c643c9", "prob": 0.03600823045267489, "text": "Gayle - abcdefu", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.8351168610558969, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.35727139455359, "textFts": "'abcdefu':2 'gayl':1", "contractId": "tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn", "createdTime": 1646478722269, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.82", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646478784000, "totalLiquidity": 4.320987654320987, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d92be202e2ba", "prob": 0.036694101508916326, "text": "Massive Attack - Teardrop", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.8593963866048454, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.561163083859913, "textFts": "'attack':2 'massiv':1 'teardrop':3", "contractId": "tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn", "createdTime": 1646478729943, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.825", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646478784000, "totalLiquidity": 4.4032921810699595, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0640877485007372 | i39Sg9SwNObS3bfunp3y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle | 927.0936287072261 | {"NO": 653.1565637871037, "YES": 147.70014512137024} | Will Manifold Markets add non-google sign ups before April 1st? | 1648364340000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 660.4, "YES": 140.6} | 0 | 8.715184624478987 | True | play | NO | public | 1646481562096 | Em ✨ | Resolves yes early if a non-google sign up is implemented, no after Mar. 31 midnight PT. Bets close Sunday before at midnight PT. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 774.7702329839933, "YES": 202.74159908627254} | {"creatorFee": 0.28973744851585254, "platformFee": 0.07243436212896313, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1652240074603 | 100 | hamnox | 1646481562096 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 23 | 1650314720473 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1663869388367}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.06408774850073719 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02590122595615377 | y0lBtox66tHsgQL506B1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02590122595615377 | will-no-one-participate-in-my-coord | 107.04818850292143 | {"NO": 49.951811497078566, "YES": 9} | Will no one participate in my COORDINATION WORDS market | 1646717019555 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 9} | 0 | 5.22543111417076 | True | play | NO | public | 1646482723839 | Em ✨ | Very Blatant Bribe. Resolves "YES" if no one other than me adds a serious answer or bets more than M$10. Resolves "NO" if I am still sad and lonly there next Saturday :(
Mar 5, 4:58am: Clarifying: "YES" means no one participates. "NO" means that someone answers/bets. I got my description very confused sorry. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 58.18432763648711, "YES": 9.487781663803188} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1646717019555 | 100 | hamnox | 1646482723839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 1715658929267 | 0 | 1646504692078 | 0.02590122595615377 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7415058186080876 | pOmPTmYGBNE7eYnaXL2S | {"NO": 7986.430190330664, "YES": 112.71519870346953} | 1 | zelensky-will-be-time-magazines-man | 48488.40732883947 | {"NO": 638.9480551676941, "YES": 946.7760513898693} | Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022? | 1670504750465 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 645, "YES": 954} | 0 | 2.4357429018280046 | True | play | YES | public | 1646484218499 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 2:38pm: I will resolve as this question as here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Fine print from above Metaculus question", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If multiple people are named Person of the Year (e.g. in 2020, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were named):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Zelenskyy is one of 4 or fewer people or entities named, this question resolves positively.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will count, for example, \"Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN\" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Simply naming \"the Ukrainian people\" or even \"the Ukrainian government\" without specifically naming Zelenskyy should not be enough to resolve positively, even if his face is shown on the cover.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year posthumously, this question still resolves positively.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Time does not name a Person of the Year for 2022 at all (including if Time ceases to exist), it resolves negatively.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 2:40pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Zelensky will be Time magazine's Man of the Year 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 6, 10:26am: ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 976.9678560398456, "YES": 1249.0227867544704} | {"creatorFee": 16.670412525227594, "platformFee": 1.4937130445454232, "liquidityFee": 8.045165579012764} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1670504750465 | 338.0451655790128 | NathanpmYoung | 1670504787869 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 208 | 1650314764650 | 0 | 189 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1665048391140}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421281}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime": 1669565185590}] | ["world-default", "ukraine", "time-person-of-the-year"] | 1670504477985 | 1670504782574 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7474899031647998 | KFUAHbqzymUJxtl5p2v4 | {"NO": 66.4371425342791, "YES": 174.4052346264073} | 0.41 | what-percentage-x10-of-russian-gdp | 620.2902368413564 | {"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 465} | What percentage (x10) of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | 1682380019604 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 465} | 0 | 3.023470302012095 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646485116421 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9931/russian-gdp-spending-on-military-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to resolution multiplied by 10, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 8.54, this market will resolve to 85%. Resolution at 10 or above resolves to 100%. Related market with less granular distribution here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-percentage-of-russian-gdp-will Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-04-29 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 254.41147772879665, "YES": 504.4808519665043} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1682380019604 | 140 | MetaculusBot | 1681164958530 | 0 | 9 | 1650314532204 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1681164958347 | 0.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09121351255925436 | a76EsAErCXMLHpwTphJH | {"NO": 133.95861863972965, "YES": 213.8774723941645} | 0.04 | what-percentage-of-russian-gdp-will | 599.0000000000001 | {"NO": 475, "YES": 50} | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | 1682379992912 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 475, "YES": 50} | 0 | 6.535376063427853 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646485335348 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9931/russian-gdp-spending-on-military-in-2022/ Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole number. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 8.5, this market will resolve to 9%. Related market for more granular distribution between 0-10% here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-percentage-x10-of-russian-gdp Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-04-29 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 498.09732984719966, "YES": 165.9069016047554} | {"creatorFee": 0.12252760583544504, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009539392014169457, "YES": 0.0003} | 0 | 1682379992912 | 140 | MetaculusBot | 1682091177753 | 0 | 6 | 1650314654943 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1682091177580 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3691119441745749 | zvF1SyoMrXEgi7jxMcqd | {"NO": 123.99999635101392, "YES": 113.40147136184723} | 0.35 | what-percentage-x10-of-us-gdp-will | 544.600809023288 | {"NO": 325.00000000000006, "YES": 205} | What percentage (x10) of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | 1677646740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 325.00000000000006, "YES": 205} | 0 | 2.604272076690213 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646485624339 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9929/us-military-spending-of-gdp-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution multiplied by 10, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 4.55, this market will resolve to 46%. Resolution at 10 or above resolves to 100%. See https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-percentage-of-us-gdp-will-be-s for ability to trade on 10%+ of GDP. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 422.3750110986563, "YES": 320.15685218406617} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849} | 0 | 1682380092744 | 120 | MetaculusBot | 1672542807716 | 0 | 4 | 1650315032383 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 1672542807567 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04 | mbOtJpUKPgvSf47LEBVi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04 | what-percentage-of-us-gdp-will-be-s | 500 | {"NO": 480, "YES": 20} | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | 1677646740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 480, "YES": 20} | 0 | 9.193386968155714 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646485840025 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9929/us-military-spending-of-gdp-in-2022/ Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole number. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 3.54, this market will resolve to 4%. Related market for more granular distribution between 0-10% here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-percentage-x10-of-us-gdp-will Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 489.8989283525327, "YES": 100.00019999999999} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002} | 0 | 1682380068551 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646485840025 | 0 | 1 | 1650314747771 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11 | IEydjoLmcVDJNuk4t40u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11 | how-many-us-troops-x01-will-be-in-e | 500 | {"NO": 445, "YES": 55} | How many US troops (x.01%) will be in Europe on June 30, 2022? | 1646497525759 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 445, "YES": 55} | 0 | 4.710339692777493 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646486242621 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9934/us-troops-in-europe-on-june-30-2022/
Resolves PROB to 0.01% of Metaculus resolution, rounded. i.e. resolution of 115,000 (115k) on Metaculus resolves to 12% here.
Mar 5, 11:24am: replaced with updated title here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/how-many-us-troops-in-hundred-thous | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 471.70000000094336, "YES": 165.83157118024903} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995} | 0 | 1646497525759 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646486242621 | 0 | 1 | 1715657901540 | 0 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05854775031112317 | bNyTNBB1owWZflAbnN7j | {"NO": 89.5065364447047, "YES": 703.235883539829} | 0 | will-brent-crude-oil-top-140barrel | 8598.146017991125 | {"NO": 2690.287238957938, "YES": 665.9355583777259} | Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? | 1651377540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2783, "YES": 529} | 0 | 10.27349092867247 | True | play | NO | public | 1646486373562 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9942/brent-oil-to-breach-140-before-may/
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3256.165753652122, "YES": 813.4019686141219} | {"creatorFee": 0.7520644871660251, "platformFee": 0.14716696094278808, "liquidityFee": 0.4901899301846188} | {"NO": 0.000714142842854285, "YES": 0.0007} | 0 | 1651399378399 | 100.49018993018461 | MetaculusBot | 1646486373562 | 0 | 31 | 1650314664801 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372245}] | ["metaculus"] | 1651350713936 | 1648161943903 | 0.007853108886975676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4809002237299702 | 88ZZaOae8LgXQRLz7WSp | {"NO": 209.6873594832312, "YES": 81.02452452504534} | 0.59 | how-many-internally-displaced-ukrai | 656.1790145323534 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 175} | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians (in hundred thousands) will be estimated in 2022? | 1684715165772 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 175} | 0 | 2.359471188191745 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646486860026 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9944/internally-displaced-ukrainians-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution multiplied by 0.00001. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 3,450,000 (3.45M), this market resolves to 35% (35 hundred thousand internally displaced). 10M or over resolves to 100%. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-06-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 403.11369364070225, "YES": 295.8045807629591} | {"creatorFee": 1.4533405159188428, "platformFee": 0.20401589534056663, "liquidityFee": 1.2240953720433998} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1684715165772 | 141.2240953720434 | MetaculusBot | 1680640742567 | 0 | 6 | 1650313816102 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1680640742411 | 0.59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19873109788652302 | BfkG9VEL7oOSk0X33VmV | {"NO": 134.74381104777132, "YES": 300.77302250313664} | 0.09999999999999994 | conditional-on-nato-declaring-a-nof | 3947.7739827350474 | {"NO": 2418.8389371845674, "YES": 831.3956246497046} | Conditional on NATO declaring a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine, will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? | 1672527660000 | DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2469, "YES": 829} | 0 | 3.1017720350301152 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646489096082 | Luca Petrolati | Given that this question about a NATO No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine resolves positively:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/
This market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.
Mar 7, 5:47pm: N.B. Market resolves to N/A if NATO does not declare any No-Fly Zone over Ukraine, decided by resolution of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2982.242591804518, "YES": 1292.3855195100327} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1673976806546 | 160.57510937508602 | LucaPetrolati | 1672525893621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c | 43 | 1650313842187 | 0 | 4 | 42 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476241}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226528}] | ["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672525893453 | 1646672006493 | False | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04820320335247121 | exWQMYW7cmQUBtYIsMbz | {"NO": 153.61553802684085, "YES": 332.43552742204014} | 0 | will-russia-be-removed-from-the-un | 1905.2627232278983 | {"NO": 761.7952952377135, "YES": 31} | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 755, "YES": 31} | 0 | 9.324530021936337 | True | play | NO | public | 1646489260907 | Metaculus Bot | From: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10005/russias-place-on-the-un-security-council/
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 768.1861126983704, "YES": 196.00015816322696} | {"creatorFee": 0.3123472271873, "platformFee": 0.0026494692814628706, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1704124659980 | 160 | MetaculusBot | 1704124660358 | 0 | 11 | 1650314694758 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370977}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223971}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701133669767}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11206973771014318 | 1701389521573 | False | 0.02 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16199261366245474 | H9xxL8fgBKBzeTWxn51U | {"NO": 332.29562480089123, "YES": 611.7400225243581} | 0.09502575206207645 | will-at-least-50k-civilians-die-in | 5496.905969437126 | {"NO": 490, "YES": 50.76866117564873} | Will at least 50k civilians die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 490, "YES": 50} | 0.35688735078827455 | 1.8047264515209185 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646489448397 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10001/civilian-deaths-in-ukrainian-cities-in-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 517.1380148934381, "YES": 158.114199236185} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1707644476304 | 400 | MetaculusBot | 1707644476682 | 2.2 | 25 | 1650313879289 | 0 | 25 | 17 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663004964814}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663004962816}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663004961856}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663004969853}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370433}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222039}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129306472}, {"name": "Resolution Pending", "slug": "resolution-pending", "groupId": "b06b1c0c-628c-4fdb-82b3-d25f6d6f9bfc", "createdTime": 1705158218104}] | ["world-default", "wars", "ukraine", "russia", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"] | 0.1631243681135092 | 1702570319172 | 1707644462145 | False | 0.1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6276997624500517 | RD07GV6ddpLXYGauQ03d | {"NO": 85.82428465655522, "YES": 144.70010399640904} | 0.5000000000000001 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy | 638.2626597607853 | {"NO": 200, "YES": 338} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will banking or finance systems be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 200, "YES": 338} | 0 | 2.641829283118548 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646489819403 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9991/cyberattack-on-us-finance-systems-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 316.22839847237, "YES": 435.25242790890894} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1673754549290 | 120 | MetaculusBot | 1672009136682 | 0 | 8 | 1650314588486 | 0 | 3 | 8 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374917}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223902}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672009136565 | False | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6301774578972399 | FGpjRG1NbpiLOfU3riC9 | {"NO": 85.7631376310325, "YES": 109.43161635445404} | 0.5718168250093275 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-f88f4d95be7a | 533.9285328841454 | {"NO": 200, "YES": 320} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will communications networks be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 200, "YES": 320} | 0 | 2.9816123171990383 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646493773266 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9990/cyberattack-on-us-communications-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 316.22839847237, "YES": 412.7961240135377} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1673754544829 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1667245241152 | 0 | 4 | 1650313868563 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372201}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223851}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1667245240993 | False | 0.57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3500000000000001 | Hnb4gLVpGfIhEX0ApSBq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3500000000000001 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-bc1dece458a7 | 500 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 175} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will transportation or aviation systems be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 325, "YES": 175} | 0 | 3.04680079367009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646493916127 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9989/cyberattack-on-us-transport-systems-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 403.11369364070225, "YES": 295.8045807629591} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1673754540117 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646493916127 | 0 | 1 | 1650313883771 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2880916064521863 | F8ZjUhStykWSr0hrdmD8 | {"NO": 85.08148548920896, "YES": 149.06848787977555} | 0.1876325649581421 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-26a7c1e7e675 | 570 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 135} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will medical infrastructure be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 135} | 0 | 3.418757708844569 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646493955523 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9988/cyberattack-on-us-medical-systems-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 438.74909686604485, "YES": 279.1061984267458} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008774964387392122, "YES": 0.00047958315233127195} | 0 | 1673754534966 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1667245233737 | 0 | 4 | 1650313866895 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372093}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223877}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1667245233647 | False | 0.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.51 | KmKjBg0To5InINM6Rz8m | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.51 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-90786b3b15a2 | 500 | {"NO": 245, "YES": 255} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will security, military, or emergency response systems be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 245, "YES": 255} | 0 | 2.773698201520389 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646493994644 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9987/cyberattack-on-us-securityems-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 350.0007, "YES": 357.07213556998533} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1673754530545 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646493994644 | 0 | 1 | 1650314537449 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5073341255922896 | FoE1jndqSd9GGJ5o6J2I | {"NO": 99.99999999999994, "YES": 99.99999999999997} | 0.5073341255922895 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-8dbf3d384f87 | 565.0913308997717 | {"NO": 285, "YES": 275} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will the electric grid be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 285, "YES": 275} | 0 | 2.773185394133611 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646494105764 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9986/cyberattack-on-us-electric-grid-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 393.0656052118145, "YES": 398.87410294536545} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045} | 0 | 1673754523881 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1667245236194 | 0 | 5 | 1650313871347 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1667245236101 | 0.51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5377218223715495 | 3gVYtFdElJTqD5KjEv9G | {"NO": 99.99999999999997, "YES": 99.99999999999997} | 0.5377218223715495 | if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-ab4543da0816 | 530.9884127719081 | {"NO": 250, "YES": 270} | If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will oil or natural gas systems be attacked? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 250, "YES": 270} | 0 | 2.7884599209594874 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646494145981 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9985/cyberattack-on-us-oil-gas-infrastructure-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 353.55409770005497, "YES": 381.3142273775003} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1673754504417 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1667245187424 | 0 | 4 | 1650313789595 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374244}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223770}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1667245186989 | False | 0.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8262467002522669 | V3wgM5YmdgqTC4NTBudo | {"NO": 1039.837848350499, "YES": 80.96826265034707} | 1 | how-much-foreign-aid-in-hundred-mil | 1659.5288563092179 | {"NO": 145.00000000000003, "YES": 356} | How much foreign aid (in hundred millions) will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | 1704257940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145.00000000000003, "YES": 356} | 0 | 4.54507437570196 | True | play | YES | public | 1646494779914 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10024/us-foreign-aid-to-ukraine/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution in hundred millions, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 7.45B, this market resolves to 75%. If 10B or more, this market resolves to 100%. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-01-02 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.016110858752176882} | 0 | {"NO": 269.258778873206, "YES": 422.4946295525068} | {"creatorFee": 0.9729098970084982, "platformFee": 0.16215164950141636, "liquidityFee": 0.9729098970084982} | {"NO": 0.0005385164807134504, "YES": 0.0008426149773176358} | 0 | 1711993966717 | 140.9729098970085 | MetaculusBot | 1711993984842 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1650314614080 | 0 | 18 | 7 | [{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671066193557}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671066192051}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671066189842}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1671066195228}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371784}] | ["us-politics", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "metaculus"] | 1681211074139 | 1711993984211 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06561428889136153 | Z7I0OaO5G99mjByjQQSX | {"NO": 90.90856059207758, "YES": 439.35500167934407} | 0 | will-russia-control-chernihiv-on-ju | 2482.7510412229294 | {"NO": 1415, "YES": 464.827109912571} | Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1415, "YES": 452} | 0 | 9.744320595225602 | True | play | NO | public | 1646494891897 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10057/will-russia-control-chernihiv-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1816.9307940526844, "YES": 482.1993492742916} | {"creatorFee": 0.4010831109297227, "platformFee": 0.06684718515495379, "liquidityFee": 0.4010831109297227} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1654218659153 | 100.40108311092973 | MetaculusBot | 1652982982648 | 0 | 12 | 1650314647520 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374376140}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223971}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1652982982497 | False | 0.014321767214438253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6421486668437274 | V620nWRzkz1xNjSjGNQz | {"NO": 142.75556419058177, "YES": 108.65555843252075} | 0.81 | what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of | 562.7555641905818 | {"NO": 185, "YES": 315} | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 185, "YES": 315} | 0 | 2.2521532288045116 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646494992605 | Metaculus Bot | From: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/
Resolves PROB rounded. i.e. 62.5 on Metaculus resolves to 63% here. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 304.138734791164, "YES": 396.8634903850819} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000608276253029822, "YES": 0.0007937253933193772} | 0 | 1672794846021 | 120 | MetaculusBot | 1672546917321 | 0 | 5 | 1650314614713 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489355}] | ["politics-default"] | 1672546917132 | 1663395138778 | 0.81 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14502080117624724 | AVr5h8hyz0L6mlaJAenv | {"NO": 85.88683351354057, "YES": 969.9913427747819} | 0 | will-there-be-a-bilateral-ceasefire | 2217.3921995172022 | {"NO": 175.7050757424704, "YES": 464.42964847904386} | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 462} | 0 | 4.1645989399714765 | True | play | NO | public | 1646495058362 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10050/bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia--ukraine/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 295.80458076295906, "YES": 567.6912853164582} | {"creatorFee": 3.5371424034524397, "platformFee": 0.2122173880369197, "liquidityFee": 1.273304328221518} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1672697652370 | 201.2733043282215 | MetaculusBot | 1671646800220 | 0 | 28 | 1650313834138 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "How It Ends", "slug": "how-it-ends", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "InKUlX3nJIQnJr550GCs", "createdTime": 1671065599184}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065596049}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065594564}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065592437}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1671065590587}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671065604029}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371206}] | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "how-it-ends", "world-default", "metaculus"] | 1671646799973 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8591024962140089 | 4Xkc3q9LIF5Ql7oxmRe7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8591024962140089 | how-much-of-2022-will-have-passed-w | 655 | {"NO": 55.00000000000003, "YES": 500} | How much of 2022 will have passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1? | 1646512159786 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55.00000000000003, "YES": 500} | 0 | 4.701306322102623 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646495912293 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/
Resolves to PROB based on how much of 2022 has passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1, as calculated on http://www.easysurf.cc/wdate7.htm with "From" set as January 1 2022, rounded. For example, if Metaculus resolves to Jul 1, 2022, that date constitutes 49.86% of the year has passed, in which case this market resolves to 50%.
If Metaculus resolves to a resolution date after December 31st, 2022, this market will resolve to 100%.
See related market for 2023 here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/how-much-of-2023-will-have-passed-w
Mar 5, 3:29pm: Resolving N/A in favor of free response equivalent here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/when-will-russias-nuclear-readiness | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 208.32693056839767, "YES": 514.4181178778115} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1646512159786 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646495912293 | 0 | 3 | 1715656975055 | 0 | 1646505796307 | 0.8591024962140089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1189033248927259 | JT6lbdw4zIcK6qbJj3fs | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1189033248927259 | how-much-of-2023-will-have-passed-w | 630 | {"NO": 495, "YES": 35} | How much of 2023 will have passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1? | 1646512136577 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 495, "YES": 35} | 0 | 4.7051901975642085 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646496060819 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/
Resolves to PROB based on how much of 2023 has passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1, as calculated on http://www.easysurf.cc/wdate7.htm with "From" set as January 1 2023, rounded. For example, if Metaculus resolves to Jul 1, 2023, that date constitutes 49.86% of the year has passed, in which case this market resolves to 50%.
If Metaculus resolves to a resolution date before January 1st, 2023, this market will resolve to 100%. If Metaculus resolves to a resolution date after December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to 100%.
See related market for 2022 here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/how-much-of-2022-will-have-passed-w
Mar 5, 11:01am: Correction: if Metaculus resolves to a resolution date before January 1st, 2023, this market will resolve to 0%, not 100%.
Mar 5, 3:28pm: Resolving N/A in favor of free response equivalent here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/when-will-russias-nuclear-readiness | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 497.49471354074706, "YES": 182.75686033637697} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646512136577 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646496060819 | 0 | 2 | 1715657938595 | 0 | 0.1189033248927259 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11 | mixAWKmuOFDSyHYKUfbr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | how-many-us-troops-in-hundred-thous | 500 | {"NO": 445, "YES": 55} | How many US troops (in hundred thousands) will be in Europe on June 30, 2022? | 1663812855449 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 445, "YES": 55} | 0 | 7.080155061899315 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646497467316 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9934/us-troops-in-europe-on-june-30-2022/
Resolves PROB in hundred thousands of troops, rounded. i.e. resolution of 115,000 (115k) on Metaculus resolves to 12% here.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 471.70000000094336, "YES": 165.83157118024903} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995} | 0 | 1663812855449 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646497467316 | 0 | 1 | 1650314749063 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5273292031237434 | n2SnS0SUpBSlq7mjgy6q | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5273292031237434 | prediction-markets-will-rapidly-gro | 98.0795982311362 | {"NO": 23.64, "YES": 44.2804017688638} | Prediction markets will rapidly grow once it's easy (for inebriated idiots) to make (dumb) bets for entertainment | 1649822340000 | uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 23.64, "YES": 44.36} | 0 | 5.163684314093473 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646499183091 | Mosiah | competing for reputation and play money is much less engaging than shitposting with money at stake
Mar 5, 11:53am: the more dumb money in the market, the more incentive for smart money to clean up aka "price discovery"/ "efficiency"
Mar 5, 11:53am: see: sports betting
Mar 5, 11:59am: resolving at market price upon closing... i think that should be automatic default.
Mar 5, 11:59am: @Gurkenglas, yes, you can buy M$, but you can't sell it.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 46.696682288184476, "YES": 49.322780553449874} | {"creatorFee": 0.30668009063592816, "platformFee": 0.07667002265898204, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00034641016151377546, "YES": 0.000938083151964686} | 0 | 1649846577243 | 100 | Mosiah | 1646499183091 | 0 | 8 | 1715658652483 | 0 | 1 | 1646892655335 | 0.5273292031237434 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2357793071515999 | d0mcSqJGqSBwUTT85i1r | {"NO": 74.03127426761564, "YES": 845.4054716970644} | 0 | will-there-be-an-episode-of-hello-i | 1086.494838530331 | {"NO": 130, "YES": 65.99999999999999} | Will there be an episode of Hello Internet in 2022? | 1672559940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 130, "YES": 66} | 0 | 3.7714906547330895 | True | play | NO | public | 1646499758903 | Conflux | This market resolves to YES if Hello Internet releases something generally considered an episode in 2022, and NO otherwise.
Hello Internet is a podcast cohosted by CGP Grey and Brady Haran which released about a couple episodes per month (on no schedule) from January 31, 2014 to February 28, 2020. A few months later, Brady released a blog post - https://www.bradyharanblog.com/hello-internet - saying that the show was on HI-atus.
There have been no episodes since, but the photo on the blog post was updated in June 2021, and the Hello Internet Twitter account tweeted a month ago for the first time in a year and half. According to posts on the HI subreddit, Brady said on Instagram (https://www.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/szoiuh/bradys_instagram_answer_on_whether_hi_will_ever/) that he didn't know whether HI would return; Brady is also apparently having a baby.
Hello Internet is known for dropping episodes unexpectedly, and the podcast is generally considered more popular than Grey's active podcast, Cortex, and Brady's active podcast, Unmade.
Given all this evidence, I'm not sure what probability to assign. Thus, prediction market! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 161.01322927247315, "YES": 111.76373293806} | {"creatorFee": 2.479909923891332, "platformFee": 0.10961333629159527, "liquidityFee": 0.6576800177495715} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1672604958775 | 140.65137841456408 | Conflux | 1672558792154 | 0 | 21 | 1650314676282 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104575879}] | ["internet"] | 1672558790948 | 1656281756634 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15535461519255012 | tcznrYGKCPkVWRTFrQpv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15535461519255012 | if-i-play-the-legacy-showcase-chall | 114 | {"NO": 102, "YES": 12} | If I play the Legacy Showcase Challenge on 2022-03-06 will I make top eight? | 1646582400000 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 102, "YES": 12} | 0 | 4.977453609474954 | True | play | NO | public | 1646507042077 | andrei klepatch | Resolves YES if I, the user Snusnumrick on Magic Online, make top eight of the Legacy Showcase Challenge on 2022-03-06. Resolves NO if I play in said event and do not make top eight. While I expect to play, in the unlikely event that I do not this market will resolve to N/A.
Mar 6, 12:26pm: Resolved NO with the following to serve as evidence: https://imgur.com/a/TiPlTRg. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 104.77215279333532, "YES": 44.93355093969316} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898} | 0 | 1646587660436 | 100 | andreiklepatch | 1646507042077 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 4 | 1715658818076 | 0 | 1 | 1646551676291 | 0.15535461519255012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0801348796205576 | dt7gHxcc6xs6TY6jtISF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0801348796205576 | will-my-youtube-channel-get-more-th | 228.60822558836693 | {"NO": 179.39177441163307, "YES": 28} | Will my YouTube channel get more than 1000 subscribers before the end of March? | 1648751410913 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 180, "YES": 28} | 0 | 4.830641973175111 | True | play | NO | public | 1646510233248 | Passion Fruit | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7WhliFXf6bOhZMiwz83zjg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 201.9068008542177, "YES": 47.38572197371059} | {"creatorFee": 1.0956709764653227, "platformFee": 0.2739177441163307, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648751410913 | 100 | PassionFruit | 1646510233248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 10 | 1715658474448 | 0 | 1648394029754 | 0.0801348796205576 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07402642568810607 | mBk1QFmy6wgDlFVj5rdN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07402642568810607 | will-mrwhosetheboss-have-11-million | 147 | {"NO": 132.5, "YES": 14.5} | Will Mrwhosetheboss have 11 million or more subscribers before April 1. | 1648751231825 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 132.5, "YES": 14.5} | 0 | 4.907029209042847 | True | play | NO | public | 1646511060673 | Passion Fruit | https://www.youtube.com/c/Mrwhosetheboss/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 144.61246488632992, "YES": 26.39183586831352} | {"creatorFee": 0.5800000000000002, "platformFee": 0.14500000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648751231825 | 100 | PassionFruit | 1646511060673 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 4 | 1715658640361 | 0 | 1647113862411 | 0.07402642568810607 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pHKtCGAZQ38CMIVwmqXw | us-presidency-2024 | 66978.0265051118 | US Presidency 2024 | 1730912400000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 8.143721140527184 | False | basic | public | 1646511977147 | Johnny |
Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.17842340585114, "platformFee": 10.00670041814926, "liquidityFee": 0} | 81.6168597813087 | 8039.999999999984 | TheSkeward | 1720241142371 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 0 | 174 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "369cee010d95", "prob": 0.022135146484888003, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.014042310063622943, "userId": "VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6203474407884819, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pHKtCGAZQ38CMIVwmqXw", "createdTime": 1646511977358, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0022948696802848646, "week": 0.002372222304930004, "month": 0.0023681623843604723}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T19:28:14.746", "probChangeDay": 0.0022948696802848646, "probChangeWeek": 0.002372222304930004, "totalLiquidity": 0.09333333333333332, "probChangeMonth": 0.0023681623843604723}, {"id": "d2c84f231b03", "prob": 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UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN | when-will-russias-nuclear-readiness | 569.9330896626332 | When will Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1? | 1664665832971 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.699692180841219 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646512051927 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/
Acceptable answers are <month> <year>, i.e. “December 2022”.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664665832971 | 599.9999999999999 | MetaculusBot | 1664665856016 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c0c918095809", "prob": 0.7800973504718555, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.297905145419467, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.258824316228004, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646512052131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.993", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 15.5552644281456, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2aa029fe7918", "prob": 0.06366410379850342, "text": "November 2022", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.1748179764766498, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.278563228651798, "textFts": "'2022':2 'novemb':1", "contractId": 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"probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.163", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4708647049567744, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "01053380dfca", "prob": 0.010046238710819074, "text": "October 2022", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.07162130994976414, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.057545337527279, "textFts": "'2022':2 'octob':1", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646513881769, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7109645856887346, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "38a940d9c948", "prob": 0.07536917499964674, "text": "December 2022", "index": 10, "poolNo": 2.3835573078474606, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.241537538402778, "textFts": "'2022':2 'decemb':1", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646513887974, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 8.348585538422409, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "798866804812", "prob": 0.006728421950469285, "text": "January 2022", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.03919045441976465, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.785422613586657, "textFts": "'2022':2 'januari':1", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646513925461, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 0.47616524572551866, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3bc912f5d028", "prob": 0.006885296672850579, "text": "March 2022", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.06350434202786642, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.159677322499455, "textFts": "'2022':2 'march':1", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646514068574, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.163", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664665832000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7626790160696026, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 6 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223197}] | ["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1664665853809 | False | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018271828785915323 | f5yGULZy1k87mU301RDY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-russia-control-vinnytsia-on-ju | 2310 | {"NO": 2115, "YES": 195} | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2115, "YES": 195} | 0 | 9.98330678838554 | True | play | NO | public | 1646512476890 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10045/will-russia-control-vinnytsia-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2288.799735669464, "YES": 312.25052441971974} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007810249675906654, "YES": 0.0006244997998398398} | 0 | 1654218611563 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646512476890 | 0 | 6 | 1650314696862 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372205}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224056}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.018271828785915326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9785659664820707 | nKlqp6ngetgLbKsx61ek | {"NO": 588.8935211277801, "YES": 97.69122461765434} | 1 | zelenskyy-still-president-of-ukrain | 2917.68198083976 | {"NO": 99.46232730014867, "YES": 1808} | Zelenskyy still President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022? | 1650643200000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 91, "YES": 1808} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1646512560770 | Johnny | This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022, 9 AM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. If the office of President of Ukraine is dissolved or otherwise ceases to exist before the resolution date of this market, or if the office is otherwise eliminated, this market will resolve to 'No'. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 267.2730066815792, "YES": 1888.6454100477258} | {"creatorFee": 1.2256890516762953, "platformFee": 0.2309114359006151, "liquidityFee": 0.9061299242215046} | {"NO": 0.0006633249580710799, "YES": 0.0007483314773547884} | 0 | 1650650806640 | 100.90552123894105 | TheSkeward | 1646512560770 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 37 | 1650314752884 | 0 | 1 | 0.9963795929687411 |
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