CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.03900279250713896

jXQNQ5RO3KfZfuRHfG9y

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.03900279250713896

will-russia-ban-whatsapp-messages-t

159

{"NO": 138, "YES": 21}

Will Russia ban WhatsApp messages to OR from US phone numbers by March 31st?

1648789140000

QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 138, "YES": 21}

0

4.887798837664028

True

play

NO

public

1646305241719

Gustavo Lacerda

Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 155.8694197098969, "YES": 31.40130571011339}

{"creatorFee": 0.8399999999999994, "platformFee": 0.20999999999999985, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1648884120686

100

GustavoLacerda

1646305241719

0

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0

1

0.03900279250713896

0.7959172011728447

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7959172011728447

will-at-least-one-of-the-mm-founder

140

{"NO": 40, "YES": 100}

Will at least one of the MM founders use my web3 MM knockoff?

1646624696082

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 100}

0

4.919563354551875

True

play

YES

public

1646306554495

Undox

This refers to the web3 project linked in my profile. Proof is a confirmation here or on Discord. Use means register then place a bet or make a new market. Founders at time of writing are James Grugett, Stephen Grugett, Austin Chen, this excludes any other people who may be involved now or in the future. Resolves NO i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 124.90076060857277}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1646624696082

100

Undox

1646306554495

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

1715657765524

0

0.7959172011728447

0.02730073656192617

MzOGmg0tFtByUBs7JOMd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.02730073656192617

will-the-volume-of-this-market-in-k

53

{"NO": 45, "YES": 6}

Will the volume of this market, in k$, be greater than the day of the month on any day in March?

1648767540000

Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 45, "YES": 6}

0

5.2935879425344154

True

play

NO

public

1646306999958

Ferruginous Duck

For example if the volume hits $15,000 on the 14th of March the market resolves YES.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 50.30000000497018, "YES": 8.42686184175343}

{"creatorFee": 0.24000000000000005, "platformFee": 0.06000000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1649066641456

100

FerruginousDuck

1646306999958

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-22faf69bd4b8

4

1715658038002

0

1

1646324444505

0.02730073656192617

0.6571095123984986

08Q50R82c7joZAEhkZcJ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6571095123984986

the-volume-of-this-market-defines-a

65

{"NO": 17, "YES": 26}

The volume of this market defines a polynomial as given in the description. On close, will this polynomial have at least one real root?

1646908437315

Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 17, "YES": 26}

0

5.380308721929719

True

play

YES

public

1646307476581

Ferruginous Duck

Examples: 1234$ -> x^3+2x^2+3x+4 563$ -> x^2+6x+3 70 009$ -> 7x^4+9 Formal definition: Call the digits of the volume, in order, A(n-1),...,A0, where n is the number of digits. The polynomial in question is A(n-1)x^(n-1)+....+A0x^0. Mar 3, 11:38am: second example should say 5x^2+6x+...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 25.18003178115548, "YES": 34.857596022961765}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646908437315

100

FerruginousDuck

1646307476581

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-22faf69bd4b8

0

11

1715656101603

0

1646459614270

0.6571095123984986

0.3648297675894151

nOwPLiEmvH9X7eMxXn0n

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3648297675894151

to-what-extent-is-sports-betting-si

229.12065648384257

{"NO": 58.8, "YES": 62.07934351615745}

To what extent is sports betting similar to prediction markets?

1649627940000

QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33

cpmm-1

{"NO": 58.8, "YES": 65.2}

0

2.9911972857196942

True

play

MKT

public

1646323426178

ianminds

This market resolves to PROB, where 100% means they are fully equivalent, and where 0% means they couldn't be any more different. You're encouraged to show your work in the comments.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 96.33869381309911, "YES": 73.01310514537897}

{"creatorFee": 0.12235678951932755, "platformFee": 0.030589197379831887, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}

0

1654006297378

100

ianminds

1646323426178

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c

5

1650314754139

0

1

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1665759336162}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012977}]

["predictions-on-predictions", "sports-default"]

1646336657212

False

0.3648297675894151

0.20346868077688446

3XubyxWlN7YHA789K4sl

{"NO": 95.54505485209101, "YES": 180.54182056408646}

0

will-russia-close-its-borders-to-pr

1474.9606219012112

{"NO": 319.4397019511651, "YES": 143.41469337473103}

Will Russia close its borders to prevent its citizens from leaving?

1651377600000

xs7PjBvKveZJ8ZRULK0srmq9UPG2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 301, "YES": 165}

0

4.073266839272935

True

play

NO

public

1646327191858

Timothy Rooney

This market will resolve to YES if Russia prevents its citizens from leaving the country at any point between now and May 1st.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 412.9907879289518, "YES": 208.98259752456715}

{"creatorFee": 4.519108253024095, "platformFee": 0.7665587260740477, "liquidityFee": 4.358620046183715}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1651406753589

104.35862004618373

TimothyRooney

1646327191858

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzKzagHNGQ6Ff-JqGsJiieY_Wo6msr0hg-tRvLg=s96-c

23

1650313788615

0

1

1651353015787

1650347283607

0.11908549595751831

0.38433780784005006

gkJY0mViKugLKCdNR3vK

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.38433780784005006

will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation

220.49066943962077

{"NO": 98.74448197774791, "YES": 82.76484858263132}

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years?

1806649140000

neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 96, "YES": 85}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646330673751

Jim Kjelland

Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2027

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 142.42052746901683, "YES": 112.52730093441842}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

100

JimKjelland

1701216578328

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c

9

1650314710030

0

1

10

1701216577609

0.42441759423691633

tuKG6O9ZyHTJtXsnoB4N

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.42441759423691633

will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation-89eab0d02701

167.67263244753525

{"NO": 69.63750537761649, "YES": 58.68986217484826}

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years?

1743577140000

neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 68, "YES": 60}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646332838680

Jim Kjelland

Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2025

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 97.3590717925626, "YES": 83.6025182537651}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

100

JimKjelland

1700929651419

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c

8

1650314792209

0

1

9

1700929649735

0.45782733668661374

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-arkk-a-speculative-innovation-d2ca07b076ab

341.91532592158626

{"NO": 166.3873600713511, "YES": 115.69731400706266}

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next year?

1648796340000

neMKCQ6Ik1WBRFQU7xKBCnRH8cY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 167, "YES": 115}

0

2.792454618933434

True

play

NO

public

1646332961705

Jim Kjelland

Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2023

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 207.70638107124083, "YES": 190.8674586789523}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1700930495236

100

JimKjelland

1700929568841

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgIpRZLoA77DaFthS7_BpyipZ8TtJtXB9XxTehYOA=s96-c

11

1650313813086

0

1

12

1700929568177

0.46

0.7215848838995291

oNhoNXDJt42vtmD7Jkx6

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7215848838995291

will-i-succeed-at-repairing-this-pa

306.8306895127786

{"NO": 81.83094594765626, "YES": 175.33836453956516}

Will I succeed at repairing this pair of eyeglass frames to the owners' satisfaction?

1646899140000

BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 82, "YES": 175}

0

4.792468404584009

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646333646597

nfd

Resolves N/A if I don't get around to attempting this by March 10th Resolves yes if I attempt a repair during that time, and if the owner of the frames replies something to the effect of "yes" when I ask "have I repaired these eyeglass frames to your satisfaction?" Resolves no if I attempt a repair during that time, an...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 135.69605898539666, "YES": 218.45628434981137}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646933985949

100

nfd

1646333646597

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb1-efea3842a48f

12

1715658678363

0

1

0.7215848838995291

0.035307406951220345

r1jQv8Un8CupuTUzmYwQ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.035307406951220345

martial-law-in-russia-before-march

12895.172678568975

{"NO": 7119.618459796337, "YES": 1457.208861634686}

Martial law in Russia before March 7th?

1646603940000

elagc5OpvzNBftXmzYdwgJjpJYX2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7292.2, "YES": 1135.8}

0

4.620932913078429

True

play

NO

public

1646333689477

tb

Martial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unrelia...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 8424.054911271745, "YES": 1611.6087947078552}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

0

1646631081571

100

tb

1646333689477

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiE8Yp83tVI7MWvBVgKc_kGl5udHhbjYCLbcmvlvQ=s96-c

47

1715658755431

0

1

1646600962450

0.035307406951220345

0.018850632856532434

ZlNU3NrleAVxHmrDjQUr

{"NO": 95.37928781101476, "YES": 1572.7589885232246}

0

will-it-be-confirmed-that-volodymyr-32dd40c5070b

5068.781917767677

{"NO": 1572.3286405483004, "YES": 100}

Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th Eastern Time?

1650427200000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1581, "YES": 100}

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1646335605255

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES in the event that ANY of the following outlets confirm that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current president of Ukraine, was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th 2022 Eastern Time: Associated Press, The New York Times, Reuters, or the Washington Post. The media outlet m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1656.4561504375738, "YES": 229.86832825324774}

{"creatorFee": 0.6760247842705424, "platformFee": 0.1460821230623474, "liquidityFee": 0.2750888760634582}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1650561122372

100.27481022555513

MatthewBarnett

1646335605255

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

35

1650314650596

0

1

1646335767925

0.0011637963254550305

0.5039925337081398

ocfNQGPHogB36xFtcMYb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5039925337081398

will-i-meet-my-study-goals-tomorrow

369.1447399947238

{"NO": 77.3552600052762, "YES": 171.5}

Will I meet my study goals tomorrow?

1646394900000

TT4Fbtv17pNvfBqWezxFqUBeeF12

cpmm-1

{"NO": 92.5, "YES": 171.5}

0

4.797872249015671

True

play

NO

public

1646337000009

pilots of a new sky

I am studying for exams due in 3 weeks. Due to mental health I have not managed to study on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of this week. I don't have reasons to believe tomorrow will be better, I'm just trying out this commitments thing. This market resolves to YES if I have written summaries of chapters 3 + 4 of my acc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 175.26398290176874, "YES": 176.66911003687702}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1646395452059

100

pilotsofanewsky

1646337000009

0

https://firebasestorage.…795-1c2d5a3c10dc

10

1715658686241

0

1646387469720

0.5039925337081398

0.9784937873358635

Y1K4r5SNnTlzndlteDYv

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9784937873358635

will-ba2-make-up-greater-than-50-of

689.4809298070613

{"NO": 39.907445815134565, "YES": 506.6116243778041}

Will BA.2 make up greater than 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases by April 2, according to the CDC?

1648690312424

PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 516}

0

4.70258575493877

True

play

YES

public

1646338164718

horse

Resolves based on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. Can resolve early if the threshold is reached. Data for April 2 expected to release by April 6. Mar 30, 6:28pm: Since the title says "by" and not "on" I'm going for early resolution.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 80.0004999996875, "YES": 540.6330614413945}

{"creatorFee": 1.3342310659288572, "platformFee": 0.3335577664822143, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}

0

1648690312424

100

horse

1646338164718

0

https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f

9

1715658314244

0

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}]

["medicine"]

1648690251345

0.9784937873358635

0.5919420203297359

tICllEcPR7BNBxRBbpKs

{"NO": 305.63634848488744, "YES": 49.75938748080374}

1

will-brad-raffensperger-win-the-rep

316

{"NO": 50, "YES": 60}

Will Brad Raffensperger win the Republican primary for Secretary of State in Georgia?

1653520076337

PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 60}

0

3.1783724699266664

True

play

YES

public

1646345339775

Lisa Marsh

If the primary goes to a runoff, what matters is whether Raffensperger wins the runoff, not who got the most votes in the first round.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 84.26220980071672}

{"creatorFee": 2.181909090674713, "platformFee": 0.36365151511245225, "liquidityFee": 2.181909090674713}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1653520076337

102.18190909067472

lisamarsh

1653520243004

0

https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514

4

1650314788939

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508941}]

["politics-default"]

1653502767825

1653520242423

0.8990938252294908

0.8703606447287947

XHmYYbXptS7IWGYu06iu

{"NO": 312.4017080471258, "YES": 88.53600390083065}

1

honourary-resolves-honorably

2146.4996256036065

{"NO": 95.83702271082197, "YES": 866.7574806773134}

Honourary resolves honorably.

1659375723581

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 55, "YES": 894}

0

6.149706843692793

True

play

YES

public

1646350658296

Gurkenglas

https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a This market's close date is subject to change. Jun 8, 9:52pm: With the new market mechanisms, there's little reason to keep this market closed. Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm Jun 8, 10:47pm: To prevent frontrunning it would have been s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 201.93534767481, "YES": 941.1759763734469}

{"creatorFee": 2.6031083378190183, "platformFee": 0.4189674405107773, "liquidityFee": 2.513804643064664}

{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}

0

1659375723581

162.94017168627445

Gurkenglas

1659375720600

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

22

1650314629127

0

1

[{"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272484815}, {"name": "Insurance", "slug": "insurance", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kqp0AgdFL7ZRDhZDOHa7", "createdTime": 1668209717934}]

["trust", "insurance"]

1657665517830

1659375715340

0.9594969496320408

0.9828021146415186

5CMyPXyLPbqkuyg6oa7I

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9828021146415186

will-the-usa-still-require-a-negati

1016.265777298603

{"NO": 70, "YES": 707.6452247671047}

Will the USA still require a negative Covid test for travelers entering via air from Canada on March 31st?

1648753200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 70, "YES": 709}

0

4.677395799504656

True

play

YES

public

1646352940889

Isaac King

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 101.9810766784701, "YES": 770.9302892570962}

{"creatorFee": 2.7493689080558825, "platformFee": 0.6873422270139706, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1649038153818

100

IsaacKing

1646352940889

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

1715656989827

0

1

0.9828021146415186

0.07671605547277717

cAoNGI6SOCr2dh3lJOPF

{"NO": 1003.5434829404177, "YES": 1174.2656496375125}

0.06630208818519395

does-p-np

14650.11384057754

{"NO": 496.8340311495019, "YES": 81.95212205849145}

Does P = NP?

32503708800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 498.5, "YES": 82.5}

0.014163805206840475

9.429349380296516

False

basic

public

1646353801167

Isaac King

This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that P does or does not equal NP. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.007589918573884337, "month": -0.002963191490891498}

0

{"NO": 538.5617884604613, "YES": 212.00417148934233}

{"creatorFee": 2.481498068320309, "platformFee": 0.2620681325725026, "liquidityFee": 0.1866637893410216}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

0

1025.186663789341

IsaacKing

1719904327198

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

100

1650314669919

2

52

[{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672902}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime":...

["mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"]

0.1452619183626494

1719904324106

1697645212362

0.1518980493796695

Q0wHh7ns2vPSy0EHxqlE

{"NO": 1004.4841910788684, "YES": 970.3398146525883}

0.1564070518333386

in-2040-will-holden-karnofsky-think

708.8332659564948

{"NO": 336.4773274587103, "YES": 140}

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

2215054740000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 341, "YES": 140}

0

9.835625198208552

False

basic

public

1646357295345

Nuño Sempere

For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus...

BINARY

{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"NO": 446.12925989801437, "YES": 167.33284196684164}

{"creatorFee": 0.015626946191667948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1000

NuñoSempere

1697307520805

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

22

1650314576176

0

19

[]

0.1038221698430006

1697307519638

1649456687208

0.15

9MGCSjRU48Kv2Y1Xc8N2

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.15

will-there-be-a-nuclear-disaster-in

50

{"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5}

Will there be a nuclear disaster in Zaporizhzhia?

1646362174527

PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92

cpmm-1

{"NO": 42.5, "YES": 7.5}

0

5.303295056474187

True

play

NO

public

1646357676394

Oliver S

This market resolves to YES if the event would be considered a "level 6" event on the International Nuclear Event Scale. A level 6 event would include "Significant release of radioactive material likely to require implementation of planned countermeasures." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Sc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 46.09864424091016, "YES": 19.365304029371703}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1646362174527

100

OliverS

1646357676394

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c

1

1715657669096

0

0.15

0.12811506319452484

BW5VCnUFXtcBhEq0iK2o

{"NO": 1010.4126638535306, "YES": 868.8392787452551}

0.14594413140245646

is-fasterthanlight-travel-physicall

5500.883307263348

{"NO": 165.5, "YES": 23.5}

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

32503708800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 165.5, "YES": 23.5}

0

9.185125122835117

False

basic

public

1646360183972

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if/when any method of transmitting physical information ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "faster-than-light", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light", "class": "brea...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.06633997778082665, "month": -0.023380914938183256}

0

{"NO": 179.86058768107034, "YES": 58.0650238958015}

{"creatorFee": 26.106896227025054, "platformFee": 0.005633053296119538, "liquidityFee": 0.033798319776717226}

{"NO": 0.0009899494936611666, "YES": 0.0001414213562373095}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1719954098940

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

80

1650313841118

1

43

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524469}]

["science-default"]

1719954095426

1717615373026

0.0008857484730297596

Tz3Zxvz2kbFLjwRbMYXg

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0008857484730297596

within-the-rules-of-magic-the-gathe

594

{"NO": 581.5, "YES": 12.5}

Within the rules of Magic: The Gathering, can Magmaquake kill Mistmeadow Skulk?

1646596800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 581.5, "YES": 12.5}

0

4.69587449259447

True

play

NO

public

1646361986946

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if it's possible to use Magmaquake to kill Mistmeadow Skulk, otherwise resolves to no. Assume the player has plenty of mana, and no other cards are involved.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 593.7378739818608, "YES": 17.678376636444877}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646600798413

100

IsaacKing

1646361986946

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

1715658218246

0

1

[{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852244636}]

["magic-the-gathering"]

1646387247029

0.0008857484730297596

0.07011811839741601

vxIBDNnQBydzkSJdNFqP

{"NO": 199.47658870445116, "YES": 767.7204987528223}

0

will-there-be-a-nuclear-disaster-li

1694.613717859276

{"NO": 312.9230797503871, "YES": 80}

Will there be a nuclear disaster like Chernobyl in 2022?

1672549140000

yefoCF3TsQP5EWl0HALskb1m80i2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 320, "YES": 80}

0

5.623483367295957

True

play

NO

public

1646362130835

Charles Vorbach

Will there be a level seven nuclear accident on the International Nuclear Scale? The only incidents currently are Chernobyl and Fukushima.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 372.00695214900026, "YES": 126.49173886266249}

{"creatorFee": 0.5834082698631925, "platformFee": 0.07279030782473947, "liquidityFee": 0.4367418469484369}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1673494877059

220.43674184694845

CharlesVorbach

1672983515219

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiavFC7cdDi3myqQK1JQwY6M6NrH1p4k5xGH9j32A=s96-c

43

1650314803697

0

3

39

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536206}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}]

["science-default", "nuclear-risk"]

1671154304777

1672983510669

0.02

cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE

what-was-the-final-result-of-the-di

318

What was the final result of the die roll in the linked video?

1646769600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.760938753458433

True

play

110b53fcd58f

public

1646363416896

Isaac King

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jok9Sjak40W5X2Y8CSoP5XJe_1e4HYRs/view?usp=sharing This market will resolve to the number that was showing on the top face of the die in the above video after it stopped moving. I'll post the full video as proof at that time. Mar 8, 6:35pm: Closed, full video: https://drive.google.com/...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646793513673

900

IsaacKing

1646363416896

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "98b61b01a1f1", "prob": 0.024722123333728887, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3823625412822089, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.08404930856663, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cdjqA0MJFaGGchfhYEpE", "createdTime": 1646363417057, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

1646423940667

{"110b53fcd58f": 100}

True

0.5076935681243318

8H1yAkxaFuNHJCIYT5Nj

{"NO": 117.02263930550627, "YES": 91.08765039257605}

0

the-next-administrator-of-the-astra

643.2990121687791

{"NO": 87.37292176305615, "YES": 98.23907063161792}

The next administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server is not currently a moderator of said server

1654796241702

nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 90, "YES": 96}

0

2.7215265874286825

True

play

NO

public

1646375326981

aps

The current administrator and server owner, TheSkeward, intends to step down at some point this year and will choose a successor. Will the next admin be someone who does not, as of right now, have the Moderator role? People who have the Moderator role now: TheSkeward, DFP, Starke Hathaway, zen about changing names now...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 130.51598939829674, "YES": 131.976359462932}

{"creatorFee": 1.7358423773519696, "platformFee": 0.30707682564719596, "liquidityFee": 1.522605224289558}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1654796241702

101.52260522428956

aps

1654679114296

0

https://firebasestorage.…e87-ed6cb7a04a0b

10

1650313817452

0

1654679114051

1647100514000

0.5698702710686196

0.05559357012593216

gMrrhWPzLlbEPXOnqWXY

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05559357012593216

will-putins-twitter-account-be-susp

242.84665182785602

{"NO": 181.65334817214398, "YES": 35.5}

Will Putin's Twitter account be suspended by April 1st?

1648796400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 182.5, "YES": 35.5}

0

4.821908673671055

True

play

NO

public

1646379874219

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if the account at https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E is suspended or otherwise made unavailable by Twitter on April 1st. A suspension that occurs earlier and is lifted before April 1st will not count. If the account changes username before then, the new username is the one that matters.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 211.03184577112702, "YES": 51.20127928577566}

{"creatorFee": 1.3972426544286232, "platformFee": 0.3493106636071558, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1649038087643

100

IsaacKing

1646379874219

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

12

1715658521708

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498949}]

["politics-default"]

0.05559357012593216

0.9928721963902855

KfuqfQPFbjU2srxJDHC6

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9928721963902855

communal-chess-game-will-white-win

18339.249259782777

{"NO": 114.43073661684161, "YES": 2628.3200036003823}

Communal Chess Game! Will White Win?

1646527200113

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 175, "YES": 2654}

0

4.6331829490425145

True

play

YES

public

1646383755686

Undox

We will play a communal chess game according to these rules: Each user account is allowed to play one move of the game, can be black or white. To make a move, make a trade, and then comment using PGN notation what the move is. I will use https://www.apronus.com/chess/pgnviewer/ to validate moves. Invalid ones are igno...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 231.47601141967536, "YES": 2732.9665136261456}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646527200113

100

Undox

1646383755686

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

19

1715657958785

0

[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969414}]

["chess"]

1646527154289

0.9928721963902855

0.022850838090130773

X9x5gzmFg2fUtH7p86IS

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-russia-formally-declare-war-on

549.0470121692639

{"NO": 281.15193835765155, "YES": 17.801049473084532}

Will Russia formally declare war on ukariane in March 2022?

1648753200000

Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 279, "YES": 13}

0

9.758312916691311

True

play

NO

public

1646385549353

Jeremy Moonders

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 295.51857431060205, "YES": 45.19136064923232}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1651530296131

100

JeremyMoonders

1646385549353

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c

12

1650314628342

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491196}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226802}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1646436612970

False

0.022850838090130773

0.06991862180252682

hapCX1FFUWfQiHrQ2crB

{"NO": 89.02038885645439, "YES": 569.3434230328033}

0

will-any-other-country-openly-join

1617.6161790135502

{"NO": 749.2938032119595, "YES": 167.0900177744902}

Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022?

1651345200000

Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 739, "YES": 157}

0

9.910841008904143

True

play

NO

public

1646385698977

Jeremy Moonders

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 883.6186920240967, "YES": 242.8562275091829}

{"creatorFee": 0.6721486703136166, "platformFee": 0.11202477838560278, "liquidityFee": 0.6721486703136166}

{"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546}

0

1651530254105

100.67214867031363

JeremyMoonders

1646385698977

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c

27

1650314715791

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500154}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226901}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1651331830331

1647895046245

False

0.011617485592001629

0.47912296375686864

9SqHSbrTufTtZYBTHZ9a

{"NO": 1113.9009641862951, "YES": 7.435465585636628}

1

will-this-market-have-at-least-m628

62895.03607122699

{"NO": 279.98126169084253, "YES": 191.91035780553295}

Will this market have at least M$62,831 invested into it by Tau Day (June 28th)?

1656411480000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 311.5, "YES": 166.5}

0

5.306611588786306

True

play

YES

public

1646387171129

Isaac King

Tau > Pi https://tauday.com/tau-manifesto

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 415.4005078492771, "YES": 223.88627115951886}

{"creatorFee": 80.70849039552667, "platformFee": 2.847269531869231, "liquidityFee": 13.711709279595647}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1656645044919

152.94322065895835

IsaacKing

1656511920707

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

39

1650313826201

0

1

1656406816119

1656511916647

0.9927954050200936

0.05296788003874944

ksW1GIurW2LiLFcFpOUz

{"NO": 105.28798030730732, "YES": 39.799840609788774}

0

will-the-upcoming-first-games-of-th

295.00000000000006

{"NO": 222.99999999999997, "YES": 28}

Will the upcoming first games of the 9th generation of Pokémon include more than 112 new species, not counting any possible DLCs?

1669935540000

7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 223, "YES": 28}

0

8.530732649239464

True

play

NO

public

1646389019275

hagi

112.25 being the previous average of new Pokémon per generation. The market will close 2 weeks before the release date. Payout will only happen at release day, any possible leaks do not count. Regional forms and Mega-Evolutions do not count as new species. Mar 4, 11:29am: Edit: With leaks don't count, I meant that I w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 244.26306720572802, "YES": 57.76725716398521}

{"creatorFee": 0.6730629231364872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1689534363460

100

hagi

1689534360131

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c

11

1650314735670

0

46

11

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459752}]

["nintendo"]

1667245354494

1689534356761

0.13

c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3

explain-market-math-geometrically

4073.052999806724

Explain market math geometrically.

1647451980000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.703212103067972

True

play

MKT

public

1646390511535

Gurkenglas

I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same. Close date updated to 2022-04-11 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-16 6:33 pm Mar 16, 6:23pm: 87 profit ever made, 3% of that is about M$3, M$3 paid out to the ante pool. Mar...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.277880007731053, "platformFee": 3.319470001932763, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647452040918

440

Gurkenglas

1646390511535

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "056821624b95", "prob": 0.0003398346105946178, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0007518937316978782, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.2117765193756944, "textFts": "", "contractId": "c9CbqEUVZnaVibgENzT3", "createdTime": 1646390511790, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

1

1646699166476

{"151b82fe514a": 99.52305246422894, "6f5b33cf0944": 0.4769475357710652}

True

zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb

which-market-will-make-me-the-most

704.3735460386579

Which market will make me the most M$?

1646748000000

imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.688561316003088

True

play

0c42a0db804e

public

1646406581319

Adam B

TL;DR: the winning option is the one that makes me the most money when I sell on 22/2/22. Options should look like this: Buy YES in "Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?" When this market closes, on 8/3/22, I will buy M$100 of each of the top 5 highest valued options in this market, buying YES/NO in the market descri...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 23.74505815845369, "platformFee": 5.936264539613423, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647958026052

740.0000000000002

jellyberg

1646406581319

0

https://firebasestorage.…cf0-e6eaf8907857

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0e8e1f071bf3", "prob": 0.15726560811884907, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.529122006752673, "userId": "imE3dYtl57flbp54JLX6cfvKwR63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.27006721795001, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zuvQfoknTbAqD7PQLBNb", "createdTime": 1646406581623, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

1646748080413

{"0c42a0db804e": 100}

True

0.022914004888100057

KfyD8ripzfW6SdCx6qOF

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.022914004888100057

will-team-cherry-set-a-release-date

110

{"NO": 102.75, "YES": 7.25}

Will Team Cherry set a release date/release window for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of March?

1648767540000

AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 102.75, "YES": 7.25}

0

4.988396119230901

True

play

NO

public

1646417366450

Angola Maldives

This market resolves to YES if Team Cherry either set a release date, or officially forecast a release window (eg. 'Q2 2022') for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of March. If they release it without prior announcement in March it also resolves to YES, since releasing it sets the current date as the release date. Oth...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 108.73341483072257, "YES": 16.65126122100065}

{"creatorFee": 0.2900000000000002, "platformFee": 0.07250000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1648930096983

100

AngolaMaldives

1646417366450

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c

7

1715657961086

0

1

0.022914004888100057

ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E

when-will-the-mlb-regular-season-st

81

When will the MLB regular season start this year?

1647018664196

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.093524348212262

True

play

db96118b8e10

public

1646420138528

BCG

The answer closest to the day the first MLB game is played will be the winner.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647018664196

280

BruceGrugett

1646420138528

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8c2603683c8e", "prob": 0.38103947568968144, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.85540187663348, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 67.98991480840344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZjVfp8OQfZeuIfq7IT3E", "createdTime": 1646420138711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404719}]

["sports-default"]

1646973011601

{"db96118b8e10": 100}

True

0.9545378782914079

bay36sgqG3YKlF7m3tuy

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9545378782914079

if-i-make-an-faq-about-manifold-fea

566.8837084467411

{"NO": 61.96816526225214, "YES": 343.14812629100663}

If I make an FAQ about Manifold features and mechanics and host it on my website, will people find it useful?

1648753200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 46, "YES": 348}

0

4.7313636176565215

True

play

YES

public

1646420922879

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if, in my subjective judgement, enough people appreciated the information in the FAQ that it was worth my time to create and maintain it. Mar 4, 11:08am: Resolves to N/A if I decide not to create the FAQ.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 86.3784945470379, "YES": 395.80143455429203}

{"creatorFee": 2.2846516621303468, "platformFee": 0.5711629155325867, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648830430048

100

IsaacKing

1646420922879

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

15

1715658403607

0

1

1647394591329

0.9545378782914079

0.6805534259578699

ZWgF0soANxLQlyWwMsGW

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6805534259578699

will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-150

60

{"NO": 23, "YES": 37}

Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Indoor Championships 2022?

1647730740000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 23, "YES": 37}

0

5.217485193706059

True

play

NO

public

1646422560148

howtodowtle

Resolves as "YES" if Jakob Ingebrigtsen is declared (by World Athletics) the winner of the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Indoor Championships 2022 scheduled on March 20, 2022. Resolves as "NO" in all other cases including: disqualification, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not make it to the final, Jakob Ingebrigtsen doe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 33.91232814862465, "YES": 49.49822219575164}

{"creatorFee": 1.48, "platformFee": 0.37, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006782329983125268, "YES": 0.0007348469228349535}

0

1647848150054

100

howtodowtle

1646422560148

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

1

1715658340280

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404469}]

["sports-default"]

0.6805534259578699

0.46621934618644006

Z3rXrHHMbp1QV2n7qccn

{"NO": 201.0455420528311, "YES": 93.56300831518521}

0

will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-the-150-017756145788

265.17979750113795

{"NO": 49.5, "YES": 26.5}

Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win the 1500 m final at the World Athletics Outdoor Championships 2022?

1658181540000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 49.5, "YES": 26.5}

0

2.227888685582732

True

play

NO

public

1646422936188

howtodowtle

Resolves as "YES" if Jakob Ingebrigtsen is declared (by World Athletics) the winner of the 1500 m final at the World Athletics (Outdoor) Championships 2022 scheduled on July 19, 2022 in Oregon. Resolves as "NO" in all other cases including: disqualification, Jakob Ingebrigtsen does not make it to the final, Jakob Inge...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 62.25029317673934, "YES": 43.60106650541933}

{"creatorFee": 2.8753474573398266, "platformFee": 0.33464555655900496, "liquidityFee": 2.00787333935403}

{"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849}

0

1658351629289

148.00787333935403

howtodowtle

1658141385432

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

4

1650314645554

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404328}]

["sports-default"]

1658141381527

1657820220457

0.6523914090125048

0.897003946570865

FFN9TwheXYAoazDqBrT1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.897003946570865

will-i-reach-a-100-day-streak-on-du

389.66825091743954

{"NO": 50, "YES": 170.33174908256044}

Will I reach a 100 day streak on Duolingo?

1647039663504

V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 175}

0

4.819216361616203

True

play

NO

public

1646424131707

comsynthus

I'm currently on 93 days. My streak goes up every day which I use Duolingo. I can also buy streak freezes, so that if I don't use Duolingo for a day, the streak freeze gets used up but I don't lose my streak. Days where I use a streak freeze do not count toward the streak number. Streak freezes cost 10 lingots. I curr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 208.67779066728335}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647039663504

100

comsynthus

1646424131707

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb0-96b0d1a0eba6

5

1715657839681

0

0.897003946570865

Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN

test-95ceb33748f2

40

test

1646424273659

V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.419168393434646

True

play

MKT

public

1646424224092

comsynthus

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646424273659

280

comsynthus

1646424224092

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb0-96b0d1a0eba6

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "40ad70ad6487", "prob": 0.06249999999999999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2592402852876594, "userId": "V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.88860427931489, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Epy7AepWphFfkASyV0wN", "createdTime": 1646424224280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

{"206ee1fcadb8": 37.5, "3cdc2cb83f1b": 62.5}

True

0.8504728298958113

l9QgRXLBEf5nqFXH9Ka4

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8504728298958113

will-i-use-this-website-more-times

1053.126958030255

{"NO": 137.5, "YES": 365.373041969745}

will i use this website more times this year?

1648826878902

nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 137.5, "YES": 379.5}

0

4.709821160686462

True

play

YES

public

1646424722848

.

i'm new, i'm learning. so i really don't know how this works... anyway looks cool. i like it.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 194.45507193308174, "YES": 463.75589170002866}

{"creatorFee": 4.978400190235501, "platformFee": 1.2446000475588752, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648826878902

100

DG

1646424722848

0

https://firebasestorage.…5a4-2e7749002f0d

14

1715658612114

0

1647665159532

0.8504728298958113

FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5

which-team-from-path-c-of-the-europ

402.66833735524676

Which team from Path C of the European qualifier playoffs will qualify for the World Cup?

1648097940000

qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.813528882542507

True

play

2bc7fc88a6d2

public

1646431224087

Alex Desjardins

This market will be resolved according to the team that wins the bracket containing Portugal, Turkey, Italy, and North Macedonia. The market closes the night before the playoff games start, and will be resolved once they conclude.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.693266505790129, "platformFee": 1.6733166264475323, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648773633316

420.0000000000001

AlexDesjardins

1646431224087

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwjGzYGd26to92fNpH-ekItGncUD85RFuPuVbM9=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "dc4f022140a9", "prob": 0.2694288876351618, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.452743776980874, "userId": "qqFkXnABFEboukFhMim4ia6F6Cn2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.3240659042955, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FFCSbA28jdw9L7e0hEr5", "createdTime": 1646431224399, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

{"2bc7fc88a6d2": 100}

True

0.4745225379666555

4k8ZeptYsc5Ks5THVe84

{"NO": 38.99004122051803, "YES": 319.5130773993864}

0.09925855593857451

will-manifold-create-a-public-chang

543.03762884024

{"NO": 48.49242243381934, "YES": 51.24817335201615}

Will Manifold create a public changelog?

1652943540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 52, "YES": 51}

0

3.1968729225996024

True

play

MKT

public

1646432832871

Daniel Reeves

For example, here's Beeminder's public changelog: https://changelog.beeminder.com

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 71.65200350166327, "YES": 69.3857069150602}

{"creatorFee": 3.215234241855249, "platformFee": 0.5603472601570065, "liquidityFee": 2.9215356036816673}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1652990791794

102.92153560368166

dreev

1652990779242

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

12

1650313796462

0

1

1652941037324

1652990775570

0.09925855593857451

0.8835114136029733

4vBuOvXMvpN7tw3UYflj

{"NO": 368.56813647985575, "YES": 84.19885090310079}

1

will-manifold-implement-a-feature-t

938.1304041408633

{"NO": 70, "YES": 362.00780589795465}

Will Manifold implement a feature to be alerted when a market probability hits some threshold?

1658892870989

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 70, "YES": 365}

0

6.991975443811765

True

play

YES

public

1646433510844

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: Sometimes markets aren't liquid enough to place a significant bet. Like 50 mana (ie, 50 cents) is enough to move the price to my probability estimate and then there's nothing else to do despite much remaining disagreement. Sometimes I b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 147.44643853419512, "YES": 406.0679205957526}

{"creatorFee": 3.934533934001611, "platformFee": 0.010832363385917743, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1658892870989

100

dreev

1658892341716

0

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17

1650313797849

0

1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557051}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

1658892340439

1658890022562

0.7555231824866078

0.03499712867562758

slKEXi9NCXqpbZ5E0qXu

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.03499712867562758

will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly

22948.71839012379

{"NO": 7363.885886193438, "YES": 1159.3294936458472}

Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of March 2022?

1648785540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7437, "YES": 1143}

0

4.62096936482216

True

play

NO

public

1646435143495

Andy Martin

Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP - > The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of glob...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 8372.744080319755, "YES": 1594.4823683663608}

{"creatorFee": 49.38780132501618, "platformFee": 12.346950331254044, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

0

1648815793595

100

AndyMartin

1646435143495

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

50

1715658792357

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576655}]

["economics-default"]

1648304165889

0.03499712867562758

0.5157298608051257

GQxmgWTLriVbR5PEPmek

{"NO": 51.14030745230898, "YES": 252.23553259277642}

0

will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-bdf45788c3cd

1838.5257625552974

{"NO": 289.93193529784236, "YES": 535.9588342172607}

Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of May 2022?

1653941355813

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

{"NO": 340, "YES": 525}

0

2.7907361701855775

True

play

NO

public

1646435519423

Andy Martin

Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP - > The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of glob...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 567.4206339871752, "YES": 600.1091892967313}

{"creatorFee": 7.898653028633039, "platformFee": 1.500158737730922, "liquidityFee": 5.69405423312806}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1653941355813

103.43825421387726

AndyMartin

1653183675226

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

16

1650313875104

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567607}]

["economics-default"]

1653183673939

1649105335098

0.17757706341514112

0.7947116340015237

cp1LzhHAo44cW8Fau63C

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7947116340015237

conditional-on-manifold-adding-a-fe

257.92012949888266

{"NO": 36, "YES": 164.07987050111734}

Conditional on Manifold adding a feature for decision markets, will Manifold remain on its rocketship trajectory? [see paired market]

1656658740000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 36, "YES": 166}

0

4.248655835595639

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646437945699

Daniel Reeves

Conditional market aka decision market! Currently there's a ton of excitement swirling around Manifold Markets and about the potential it's showing. If my sense is that that excitement/potential has increased AND ALSO Manifold has implemented a conditional markets feature, then I will resolve to YES. Being a conditio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 90.65415981490037, "YES": 178.36529384591438}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1656662958138

100

dreev

1646437945699

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

6

1650314674788

0

1

1648798468711

0.7947116340015237

0.3816916252103339

lk4pN8EWEY3YJanWgOX1

{"NO": 128.65321234917397, "YES": 66.48868782731823}

0.5443120330182751

conditional-on-manifold-not-adding

52.55451577994361

{"NO": 6, "YES": 5.445484220056395}

Conditional on Manifold NOT adding a feature for decision markets, will Manifold remain on its rocketship trajectory? [see paired market]

1656658740000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 6, "YES": 5}

0

2.991204099250214

True

play

MKT

public

1646437954646

Daniel Reeves

Conditional market aka decision market! Currently there's a ton of excitement swirling around Manifold Markets and about the potential it's showing. If my sense is that that excitement/potential has increased despite Manifold NOT implementing a conditional markets feature, then I will resolve to YES. Being a conditio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 9.000666669752858, "YES": 7.071774918646661}

{"creatorFee": 1.3467876508260346, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1656663123017

100

dreev

1656212800933

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

3

1650314740972

0

1

1656212800807

1646497647075

0.5443120330182751

0.0028711211076336398

ATpDRXMKxNJmRDT7r5Qi

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0028711211076336398

is-23-32

3688.022656393553

{"NO": 109.67241514263375, "YES": 22.304928463812868}

Is 2↑↑↑↑3 > 3↑↑↑↑2?

1646524800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 125, "YES": 5}

0

4.935332830064257

True

play

NO

public

1646443234649

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if 2↑↑↑↑3 is greater than 3↑↑↑↑2. Otherwise resolves to no. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knuth%27s_up-arrow_notation

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 131.7887445140947, "YES": 7.071774918646664}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646536686201

100

IsaacKing

1646443234649

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

6

1715657709773

0

1

1646460400504

0.0028711211076336398

0.018395277229430178

wbQc9FAmG6YTURUGQzCH

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.018395277229430178

will-the-linked-market-fall-to-less

344920.6867425903

{"NO": 25589.82463523068, "YES": 9541.48862217911}

Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?

1647023589496

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 33632, "YES": 1602}

0

4.616543553404612

True

play

NO

public

1646443448450

Matthew Barnett

Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a In the discussion, Gurkenglas said, > Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? > TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes > TheSkeward: I'd e...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 34786.20366234978, "YES": 4762.02733853843}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647023589496

100

MatthewBarnett

1646443448450

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

30

1715658883991

0

1646707723037

0.018395277229430178

UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI

what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra

686.9597786969965

What will the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit be on March 13th, 2022?

1647216016186

sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.72103050332953

True

play

207e7c23ac34

public

1646445823700

William Kiely

At some point on March 13th, I will add up the Total Profit of the Top 20 traders and will resolve this question to whichever range the true value falls in. I'm intentionally avoiding setting a specific time in order to make it harder for top traders to momentarily manipulate the answer for their benefit. As of the w...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647216016186

620

WilliamKiely

1646445823700

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5fd0fa149a81", "prob": 0.0005003879020461124, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0010076539141278167, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.012737902298296, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UcIMW3dOUWEs9duDRObI", "createdTime": 1646445823984, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

1647216007957

{"207e7c23ac34": 100}

True

iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt

what-will-the-sum-of-the-top-20-tra-7bdca072caec

173.80960970217413

What will the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit be on April 13th, 2022?

1649912340000

sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.040411142683414

True

play

636c6f86e78c

public

1646446579815

William Kiely

At some point on April 13th, I will add up the Total Profit of the Top 20 traders and will resolve this question to whichever range the true value falls in. I'm intentionally avoiding setting a specific time in order to make it harder for top traders to momentarily manipulate the answer for their benefit. As of the w...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.14999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649966870883

420

WilliamKiely

1646446579815

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a0d31830fe8c", "prob": 0.011357564073042517, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.11825487191686522, "userId": "sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.29373762544851, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iQs1Z3yoamhr68fhZjwt", "createdTime": 1646446580044, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

{"636c6f86e78c": 100}

True

0.9222302432045586

PHRWRhwjugsi23OtsUbM

{"NO": 161.72247234066867, "YES": 97.21110354821786}

1

by-june-2022-will-putins-decision-t

1966.8541848684897

{"NO": 168.78654068238257, "YES": 1216.590760170155}

By June 2022, will Putin's decision to invade Ukraine be regarded as a major strategic blunder?

1653938157130

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

{"NO": 154, "YES": 1222}

0

8.797342558836018

True

play

YES

public

1646446736897

Andy Martin

This will be resolved on 2022-06-01 from the perspective of an open-minded westerner. If it seems extremely likely the end result is clear before June, I may resolve this early. In the case that it's ambiguous (ex: it's June 2022 and it's not really clear whether the decision to invade was a "major strategic blunder"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 386.50916016800176, "YES": 1330.369762727374}

{"creatorFee": 0.7305862428025269, "platformFee": 0.13729012908741742, "liquidityFee": 0.5442771793585719}

{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}

0

1653938157130

100.52365982939435

AndyMartin

1653163132435

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

40

1650314569336

0

1653163131184

1652178868927

0.951756084952532

0.05608254925505595

fQhy9nDGdOu8QTUBEN25

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05608254925505595

will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a

1011.8385683154652

{"NO": 810, "YES": 162.16143168453476}

Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022?

1649031253791

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

{"NO": 810, "YES": 165}

0

4.665248163120988

True

play

NO

public

1646447280410

Andy Martin

From https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/russian-convoy-stalled-outside-kyiv-intl/index.html - > On Thursday, US intelligence suggested that the convoy was still stalled some distance from Kyiv, backing claims made by both the Ukrainian government and UK's defense ministry. > > "We still assess that the convoy tha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 944.5084371536667, "YES": 230.22511966404875}

{"creatorFee": 6.486457267381389, "platformFee": 1.6216143168453472, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

1649031253791

100

AndyMartin

1646447280410

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

11

1715658505227

0

1647096917626

0.05608254925505595

0.45000000000000007

8sXQ2AB8PqQNT4etcMAX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.45000000000000007

how-many-moves-to-resolve-the-commu

50

{"NO": 27.500000000000004, "YES": 22.5}

How many moves to resolve the communal chess game?

1646476792993

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 27.500000000000004, "YES": 22.5}

0

5.303295056474187

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646449678882

Undox

Resolves to PROB the total number of moves in the game. I think a lot of moves will be needed as people play badly on purpose! https://manifold.markets/Martin/communal-chess-game-will-white-win Mar 5, 9:39pm: Not much interesting in this so aborting it.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 37.08173405532702, "YES": 33.5416904828901}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

0

1646476792993

100

Undox

1646449678882

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

1715657655435

0

0.45000000000000007

0.11999999999999998

vpANcCWhbEHNqk1fF2nP

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.11999999999999998

will-the-sun-explode-randomly-befor

2420

{"NO": 352, "YES": 2068}

will the sun explode randomly before election day 2022

1646453459381

2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43

cpmm-1

{"NO": 352, "YES": 2068}

0

4.6355669373858985

True

play

YES

public

1646453256843

powdered sugar

if you survive, you win the market

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 375.23419886902633, "YES": 2390.732970450719}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546}

0

1646453459381

100

powderedsugar

1646453256843

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c

3

1715658855441

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511028}]

["politics-default"]

0.11999999999999998

0.01

phna23y3GfQJOFSbyNx9

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.01

will-i-among-us-potion

515

{"NO": 486.09, "YES": 22.91}

will I among us potion

1646453612565

2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43

cpmm-1

{"NO": 486.09, "YES": 22.91}

0

4.7087340165323495

True

play

NO

public

1646453523480

powdered sugar

OH NO GUYS DON'T DRINK IT

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 488.53982660678747, "YES": 142.86656648778958}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1646453612565

100

powderedsugar

1646453523480

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c

2

1715658717385

0

1646453635714

0.01

0.9899999999999999

WLJsOA1rq7DKGGRNFC1v

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9899999999999999

will-the-universe-end-in-the-next-f

1713

{"NO": 5.090000000000003, "YES": 1507.9099999999999}

will the universe end in the next five minutes

1646453736370

2RxJGnWyzDhVE5Got921HKG8Hn43

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.090000000000003, "YES": 1507.9099999999999}

0

4.647622544147873

True

play

YES

public

1646453665182

powdered sugar

OH NO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 50.90010000000018, "YES": 1512.1445717328056}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1646453736370

100

powderedsugar

1646453665182

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6oIkyfK7Sgng8OiizaIlyfCxV_SYMgVOBPTFsQg=s96-c

2

1715658261802

0

0.9899999999999999

0.8181966929302383

VT7sRvEzwV2lxahbT8cW

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8181966929302383

is-gay

51

{"NO": 1.1000000000000014, "YES": 9.9}

is gay?

1646459940000

TDIuMlTJ79cHpGRReAs0sk6AWiZ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1.1000000000000014, "YES": 9.9}

0

4.6597858935836864

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646453815033

Quandale Dingle

no Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 4.690650275814644, "YES": 9.950869358503306}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1680902560591

100

MattiasjohnsonB

1654794755949

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVFZk6muozi73TcmSYjQl-Gy8KJmT8kuO3myMs0g=s96-c

3

1650314617409

0

1

4

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779632069}]

["please-resolve"]

1654794754425

0.82

0.3534039640795292

CaPQ3UAeu1SpcbcjtQ1X

{"NO": 298.48920170781446, "YES": 13.522582669908644}

1

will-any-show-on-netflix-reach-half

320

{"NO": 94.05, "YES": 25.95}

Will any show on Netflix reach half of Squid Game's total watch time (in its first 28 days) before June 30, 2022?

1656647940000

IBBJKkcGoLenzHilUamT1BVcqvm1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 94.05, "YES": 25.95}

0

4.1081355197846365

True

play

YES

public

1646458534789

UberEleet Haxx0r

This question resolves to YES, if on midnight of June 30th, 2022, the site https://top10.netflix.com/ lists any shows other than Squid Game with over 825,225,000 hours watched in the first 28 days, in either the English TV or non-English TV section. For comparison, the top English show (Bridgerton: Season 1) is at 625...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 96.49423869304323, "YES": 71.3379415181711}

{"creatorFee": 1.5107982921855578, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

0

1661643733661

100

UberEleetHaxx0r

1656212605986

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTzNMa50WNRh6IChv0JHHc57HC0A8CnJuInlpl=s96-c

3

1650313848386

0

1

4

1656212604795

0.9234563750633655

0.5270211778254585

NxoUiRQZH7dXrK5KtMPV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

this-market-will-resolve-early-with

2818.341448239123

{"NO": 272.8765354258733, "YES": 408.7820163350033}

This market will resolve early with probability 50%. Will it resolve early?

1647147540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 306, "YES": 376}

0

2.7807099976900953

True

play

NO

public

1646462729700

Jenny

When this market closes, I will flip a fair coin. If it lands heads, I will resolve this market to YES soon after closing. If it lands tails, I will resolve this market to NO about a year after closing. Mar 12, 10:00pm: I will go to https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet and take the rightmost digit of the first ha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 468.8008304906979, "YES": 494.85909695394196}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1681016541961

100

Jenny

1681016718500

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

33

1650314561416

0

1

34

[{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1664067479758}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663707027033}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slu...

["fun", "gambling", "interest-rates"]

1681016714248

0.53

0.07358358593089577

GoKyAi5PdhIft9JWa5M4

{"NO": 275.32019705686605, "YES": 774.458306065933}

0.02746133299108805

will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of

2311.176116767715

{"NO": 437.04870123587995, "YES": 74.62156423257767}

Will Putin get killed by the end of 2022?

1663277493837

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 459, "YES": 83}

0

1.3845825777055003

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646466955899

Account deletion requested

Replaces improperly resolved https://manifold.markets/niki/will-putin-get-killed-by-2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 482.5347104641107, "YES": 170.19911017220306}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1663277493837

300

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277502045

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

0

53

1650313876894

0

51

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929569}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479511}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": ...

["politics-default", "global-macro", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1663277492294

1663277499976

False

0.02746246046016976

0.00445320355297042

jfo3gUuPCS0DYYWdzWZo

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.00445320355297042

will-russia-occupy-kyiv-as-well-as

3994.886918467943

{"NO": 3101.59768008877, "YES": 181.5154014432869}

Will Russia occupy Kyiv as well as at least 70% of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory on April 15th?

1650059940000

EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 3139, "YES": 180}

0

4.6302328721541635

True

play

NO

public

1646473190666

Emanuel Rylke

https://twitter.com/SamoBurja/status/1499883211748433932

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 3275.795737275659, "YES": 219.08984458595978}

{"creatorFee": 6.3671349312514485, "platformFee": 1.5917837328128621, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1650086940840

100

EmanuelRylke

1646473190666

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c

33

1715658580022

0

1

1648289340751

0.00445320355297042

tSWbwffGYCGYJZJm6Tmn

what-song-is-going-round-my-head-ri

54

What song is going round my head right now?

1646478784983

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.266106886576926

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646478600985

Undox

At the time of writing this question what song is repeating in my head. I provide the options, one is correct.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646478784983

300

Undox

1646478600985

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

0

ANYONE

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True

0.0640877485007372

i39Sg9SwNObS3bfunp3y

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle

927.0936287072261

{"NO": 653.1565637871037, "YES": 147.70014512137024}

Will Manifold Markets add non-google sign ups before April 1st?

1648364340000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 660.4, "YES": 140.6}

0

8.715184624478987

True

play

NO

public

1646481562096

Em ✨

Resolves yes early if a non-google sign up is implemented, no after Mar. 31 midnight PT. Bets close Sunday before at midnight PT.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 774.7702329839933, "YES": 202.74159908627254}

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{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

0

1652240074603

100

hamnox

1646481562096

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

23

1650314720473

0

1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1663869388367}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.06408774850073719

0.02590122595615377

y0lBtox66tHsgQL506B1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.02590122595615377

will-no-one-participate-in-my-coord

107.04818850292143

{"NO": 49.951811497078566, "YES": 9}

Will no one participate in my COORDINATION WORDS market

1646717019555

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 51, "YES": 9}

0

5.22543111417076

True

play

NO

public

1646482723839

Em ✨

Very Blatant Bribe. Resolves "YES" if no one other than me adds a serious answer or bets more than M$10. Resolves "NO" if I am still sad and lonly there next Saturday :( Mar 5, 4:58am: Clarifying: "YES" means no one participates. "NO" means that someone answers/bets. I got my description very confused sorry.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 58.18432763648711, "YES": 9.487781663803188}

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{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1646717019555

100

hamnox

1646482723839

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

5

1715658929267

0

1646504692078

0.02590122595615377

0.7415058186080876

pOmPTmYGBNE7eYnaXL2S

{"NO": 7986.430190330664, "YES": 112.71519870346953}

1

zelensky-will-be-time-magazines-man

48488.40732883947

{"NO": 638.9480551676941, "YES": 946.7760513898693}

Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?

1670504750465

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

{"NO": 645, "YES": 954}

0

2.4357429018280046

True

play

YES

public

1646484218499

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 2:38pm: I will resolve as this question as here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://w...

BINARY

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{"NO": 976.9678560398456, "YES": 1249.0227867544704}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1670504750465

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NathanpmYoung

1670504787869

0

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208

1650314764650

0

189

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["world-default", "ukraine", "time-person-of-the-year"]

1670504477985

1670504782574

1

0.7474899031647998

KFUAHbqzymUJxtl5p2v4

{"NO": 66.4371425342791, "YES": 174.4052346264073}

0.41

what-percentage-x10-of-russian-gdp

620.2902368413564

{"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 465}

What percentage (x10) of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?

1682380019604

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 465}

0

3.023470302012095

True

play

MKT

public

1646485116421

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9931/russian-gdp-spending-on-military-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to resolution multiplied by 10, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 8.54, this market will resolve to 85%. Resolution at 10 or above resolves t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 254.41147772879665, "YES": 504.4808519665043}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888}

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1682380019604

140

MetaculusBot

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3

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{"NO": 133.95861863972965, "YES": 213.8774723941645}

0.04

what-percentage-of-russian-gdp-will

599.0000000000001

{"NO": 475, "YES": 50}

What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?

1682379992912

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 475, "YES": 50}

0

6.535376063427853

True

play

MKT

public

1646485335348

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9931/russian-gdp-spending-on-military-in-2022/ Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole number. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 8.5, this market will resolve to 9%. Related market for more granular distribution ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 498.09732984719966, "YES": 165.9069016047554}

{"creatorFee": 0.12252760583544504, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009539392014169457, "YES": 0.0003}

0

1682379992912

140

MetaculusBot

1682091177753

0

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6

1650314654943

0

3

4

1682091177580

0.04

0.3691119441745749

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{"NO": 123.99999635101392, "YES": 113.40147136184723}

0.35

what-percentage-x10-of-us-gdp-will

544.600809023288

{"NO": 325.00000000000006, "YES": 205}

What percentage (x10) of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?

1677646740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 325.00000000000006, "YES": 205}

0

2.604272076690213

True

play

MKT

public

1646485624339

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9929/us-military-spending-of-gdp-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution multiplied by 10, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 4.55, this market will resolve to 46%. Resolution at 10 or above resol...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 422.3750110986563, "YES": 320.15685218406617}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007681145747868609, "YES": 0.0006403124237432849}

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MetaculusBot

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5

1672542807567

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0.04

mbOtJpUKPgvSf47LEBVi

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.04

what-percentage-of-us-gdp-will-be-s

500

{"NO": 480, "YES": 20}

What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?

1677646740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 480, "YES": 20}

0

9.193386968155714

True

play

MKT

public

1646485840025

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9929/us-military-spending-of-gdp-in-2022/ Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole number. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 3.54, this market will resolve to 4%. Related market for more granular distribution betw...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 489.8989283525327, "YES": 100.00019999999999}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002}

0

1682380068551

100

MetaculusBot

1646485840025

0

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1

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0

11

2

0.04

0.11

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.11

how-many-us-troops-x01-will-be-in-e

500

{"NO": 445, "YES": 55}

How many US troops (x.01%) will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?

1646497525759

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 445, "YES": 55}

0

4.710339692777493

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646486242621

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9934/us-troops-in-europe-on-june-30-2022/ Resolves PROB to 0.01% of Metaculus resolution, rounded. i.e. resolution of 115,000 (115k) on Metaculus resolves to 12% here. Mar 5, 11:24am: replaced with updated title here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/how-many-us-troops-in...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 471.70000000094336, "YES": 165.83157118024903}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995}

0

1646497525759

100

MetaculusBot

1646486242621

0

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1

1715657901540

0

0.11

0.05854775031112317

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{"NO": 89.5065364447047, "YES": 703.235883539829}

0

will-brent-crude-oil-top-140barrel

8598.146017991125

{"NO": 2690.287238957938, "YES": 665.9355583777259}

Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?

1651377540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 2783, "YES": 529}

0

10.27349092867247

True

play

NO

public

1646486373562

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9942/brent-oil-to-breach-140-before-may/ Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 3256.165753652122, "YES": 813.4019686141219}

{"creatorFee": 0.7520644871660251, "platformFee": 0.14716696094278808, "liquidityFee": 0.4901899301846188}

{"NO": 0.000714142842854285, "YES": 0.0007}

0

1651399378399

100.49018993018461

MetaculusBot

1646486373562

0

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31

1650314664801

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372245}]

["metaculus"]

1651350713936

1648161943903

0.007853108886975676

0.4809002237299702

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{"NO": 209.6873594832312, "YES": 81.02452452504534}

0.59

how-many-internally-displaced-ukrai

656.1790145323534

{"NO": 325, "YES": 175}

How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians (in hundred thousands) will be estimated in 2022?

1684715165772

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 325, "YES": 175}

0

2.359471188191745

True

play

MKT

public

1646486860026

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9944/internally-displaced-ukrainians-in-2022/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution multiplied by 0.00001. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 3,450,000 (3.45M), this market resolves to 35% (35 hundred thousand in...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 403.11369364070225, "YES": 295.8045807629591}

{"creatorFee": 1.4533405159188428, "platformFee": 0.20401589534056663, "liquidityFee": 1.2240953720433998}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

1684715165772

141.2240953720434

MetaculusBot

1680640742567

0

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6

1650313816102

0

3

5

1680640742411

0.59

0.19873109788652302

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{"NO": 134.74381104777132, "YES": 300.77302250313664}

0.09999999999999994

conditional-on-nato-declaring-a-nof

3947.7739827350474

{"NO": 2418.8389371845674, "YES": 831.3956246497046}

Conditional on NATO declaring a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine, will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

1672527660000

DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 2469, "YES": 829}

0

3.1017720350301152

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646489096082

Luca Petrolati

Given that this question about a NATO No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/ This market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 2982.242591804518, "YES": 1292.3855195100327}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1673976806546

160.57510937508602

LucaPetrolati

1672525893621

0

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43

1650313842187

0

4

42

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476241}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro"...

["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1672525893453

1646672006493

False

0.1

0.04820320335247121

exWQMYW7cmQUBtYIsMbz

{"NO": 153.61553802684085, "YES": 332.43552742204014}

0

will-russia-be-removed-from-the-un

1905.2627232278983

{"NO": 761.7952952377135, "YES": 31}

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 755, "YES": 31}

0

9.324530021936337

True

play

NO

public

1646489260907

Metaculus Bot

From: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10005/russias-place-on-the-un-security-council/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 768.1861126983704, "YES": 196.00015816322696}

{"creatorFee": 0.3123472271873, "platformFee": 0.0026494692814628706, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1704124659980

160

MetaculusBot

1704124660358

0

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11

1650314694758

0

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[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370977}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223971}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11206973771014318

1701389521573

False

0.02

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.16199261366245474

H9xxL8fgBKBzeTWxn51U

{"NO": 332.29562480089123, "YES": 611.7400225243581}

0.09502575206207645

will-at-least-50k-civilians-die-in

5496.905969437126

{"NO": 490, "YES": 50.76866117564873}

Will at least 50k civilians die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 490, "YES": 50}

0.35688735078827455

1.8047264515209185

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646489448397

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10001/civilian-deaths-in-ukrainian-cities-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 517.1380148934381, "YES": 158.114199236185}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

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400

MetaculusBot

1707644476682

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

25

1650313879289

0

25

17

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663004964814}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663004962816}, {"name": "World", "slug": "worl...

["world-default", "wars", "ukraine", "russia", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.1631243681135092

1702570319172

1707644462145

False

0.1

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6276997624500517

RD07GV6ddpLXYGauQ03d

{"NO": 85.82428465655522, "YES": 144.70010399640904}

0.5000000000000001

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy

638.2626597607853

{"NO": 200, "YES": 338}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will banking or finance systems be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 200, "YES": 338}

0

2.641829283118548

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646489819403

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9991/cyberattack-on-us-finance-systems-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 316.22839847237, "YES": 435.25242790890894}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

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1673754549290

120

MetaculusBot

1672009136682

0

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8

1650314588486

0

3

8

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374917}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223902}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1672009136565

False

0.5

0.6301774578972399

FGpjRG1NbpiLOfU3riC9

{"NO": 85.7631376310325, "YES": 109.43161635445404}

0.5718168250093275

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-f88f4d95be7a

533.9285328841454

{"NO": 200, "YES": 320}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will communications networks be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 200, "YES": 320}

0

2.9816123171990383

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646493773266

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9990/cyberattack-on-us-communications-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 316.22839847237, "YES": 412.7961240135377}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1673754544829

100

MetaculusBot

1667245241152

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

1650313868563

0

3

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372201}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223851}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1667245240993

False

0.57

0.3500000000000001

Hnb4gLVpGfIhEX0ApSBq

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3500000000000001

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-bc1dece458a7

500

{"NO": 325, "YES": 175}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will transportation or aviation systems be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 325, "YES": 175}

0

3.04680079367009

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646493916127

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9989/cyberattack-on-us-transport-systems-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 403.11369364070225, "YES": 295.8045807629591}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

1673754540117

100

MetaculusBot

1646493916127

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

1650313883771

0

3

2

0.35

0.2880916064521863

F8ZjUhStykWSr0hrdmD8

{"NO": 85.08148548920896, "YES": 149.06848787977555}

0.1876325649581421

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-26a7c1e7e675

570

{"NO": 385, "YES": 135}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will medical infrastructure be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 385, "YES": 135}

0

3.418757708844569

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646493955523

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9988/cyberattack-on-us-medical-systems-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 438.74909686604485, "YES": 279.1061984267458}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008774964387392122, "YES": 0.00047958315233127195}

0

1673754534966

100

MetaculusBot

1667245233737

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

1650313866895

0

3

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372093}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223877}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1667245233647

False

0.19

0.51

KmKjBg0To5InINM6Rz8m

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.51

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-90786b3b15a2

500

{"NO": 245, "YES": 255}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will security, military, or emergency response systems be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 245, "YES": 255}

0

2.773698201520389

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646493994644

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9987/cyberattack-on-us-securityems-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 350.0007, "YES": 357.07213556998533}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285}

0

1673754530545

100

MetaculusBot

1646493994644

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

1650314537449

0

3

2

0.51

0.5073341255922896

FoE1jndqSd9GGJ5o6J2I

{"NO": 99.99999999999994, "YES": 99.99999999999997}

0.5073341255922895

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-8dbf3d384f87

565.0913308997717

{"NO": 285, "YES": 275}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will the electric grid be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 285, "YES": 275}

0

2.773185394133611

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646494105764

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9986/cyberattack-on-us-electric-grid-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 393.0656052118145, "YES": 398.87410294536545}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045}

0

1673754523881

100

MetaculusBot

1667245236194

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

1650313871347

0

3

5

1667245236101

0.51

0.5377218223715495

3gVYtFdElJTqD5KjEv9G

{"NO": 99.99999999999997, "YES": 99.99999999999997}

0.5377218223715495

if-there-is-a-successful-russian-cy-ab4543da0816

530.9884127719081

{"NO": 250, "YES": 270}

If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, will oil or natural gas systems be attacked?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 250, "YES": 270}

0

2.7884599209594874

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646494145981

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9985/cyberattack-on-us-oil-gas-infrastructure-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 353.55409770005497, "YES": 381.3142273775003}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1673754504417

100

MetaculusBot

1667245187424

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

1650313789595

0

3

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374244}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223770}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1667245186989

False

0.54

0.8262467002522669

V3wgM5YmdgqTC4NTBudo

{"NO": 1039.837848350499, "YES": 80.96826265034707}

1

how-much-foreign-aid-in-hundred-mil

1659.5288563092179

{"NO": 145.00000000000003, "YES": 356}

How much foreign aid (in hundred millions) will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?

1704257940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 145.00000000000003, "YES": 356}

0

4.54507437570196

True

play

YES

public

1646494779914

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10024/us-foreign-aid-to-ukraine/ Resolves PROB to Metaculus resolution in hundred millions, rounded. i.e. if Metaculus resolves to 7.45B, this market resolves to 75%. If 10B or more, this market resolves to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.016110858752176882}

0

{"NO": 269.258778873206, "YES": 422.4946295525068}

{"creatorFee": 0.9729098970084982, "platformFee": 0.16215164950141636, "liquidityFee": 0.9729098970084982}

{"NO": 0.0005385164807134504, "YES": 0.0008426149773176358}

0

1711993966717

140.9729098970085

MetaculusBot

1711993984842

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

7

1650314614080

0

18

7

[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671066193557}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671066192051}, {"na...

["us-politics", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "metaculus"]

1681211074139

1711993984211

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.06561428889136153

Z7I0OaO5G99mjByjQQSX

{"NO": 90.90856059207758, "YES": 439.35500167934407}

0

will-russia-control-chernihiv-on-ju

2482.7510412229294

{"NO": 1415, "YES": 464.827109912571}

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1415, "YES": 452}

0

9.744320595225602

True

play

NO

public

1646494891897

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10057/will-russia-control-chernihiv-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1816.9307940526844, "YES": 482.1993492742916}

{"creatorFee": 0.4010831109297227, "platformFee": 0.06684718515495379, "liquidityFee": 0.4010831109297227}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1654218659153

100.40108311092973

MetaculusBot

1652982982648

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

12

1650314647520

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374376140}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223971}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1652982982497

False

0.014321767214438253

0.6421486668437274

V620nWRzkz1xNjSjGNQz

{"NO": 142.75556419058177, "YES": 108.65555843252075}

0.81

what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of

562.7555641905818

{"NO": 185, "YES": 315}

What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 185, "YES": 315}

0

2.2521532288045116

True

play

MKT

public

1646494992605

Metaculus Bot

From: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/ Resolves PROB rounded. i.e. 62.5 on Metaculus resolves to 63% here.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 304.138734791164, "YES": 396.8634903850819}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000608276253029822, "YES": 0.0007937253933193772}

0

1672794846021

120

MetaculusBot

1672546917321

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

1650314614713

0

1

6

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489355}]

["politics-default"]

1672546917132

1663395138778

0.81

0.14502080117624724

AVr5h8hyz0L6mlaJAenv

{"NO": 85.88683351354057, "YES": 969.9913427747819}

0

will-there-be-a-bilateral-ceasefire

2217.3921995172022

{"NO": 175.7050757424704, "YES": 464.42964847904386}

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 175, "YES": 462}

0

4.1645989399714765

True

play

NO

public

1646495058362

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10050/bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia--ukraine/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 295.80458076295906, "YES": 567.6912853164582}

{"creatorFee": 3.5371424034524397, "platformFee": 0.2122173880369197, "liquidityFee": 1.273304328221518}

{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}

0

1672697652370

201.2733043282215

MetaculusBot

1671646800220

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

28

1650313834138

0

1

27

[{"name": "How It Ends", "slug": "how-it-ends", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "InKUlX3nJIQnJr550GCs", "createdTime": 1671065599184}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 167106559604...

["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "how-it-ends", "world-default", "metaculus"]

1671646799973

0.01

0.8591024962140089

4Xkc3q9LIF5Ql7oxmRe7

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8591024962140089

how-much-of-2022-will-have-passed-w

655

{"NO": 55.00000000000003, "YES": 500}

How much of 2022 will have passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1?

1646512159786

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 55.00000000000003, "YES": 500}

0

4.701306322102623

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646495912293

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/ Resolves to PROB based on how much of 2022 has passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1, as calculated on http://www.easysurf.cc/wdate7.htm with "From" set as January 1 2022, rounded. For example, if Metaculus res...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 208.32693056839767, "YES": 514.4181178778115}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}

0

1646512159786

100

MetaculusBot

1646495912293

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

1715656975055

0

1646505796307

0.8591024962140089

0.1189033248927259

JT6lbdw4zIcK6qbJj3fs

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1189033248927259

how-much-of-2023-will-have-passed-w

630

{"NO": 495, "YES": 35}

How much of 2023 will have passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1?

1646512136577

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 495, "YES": 35}

0

4.7051901975642085

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646496060819

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/ Resolves to PROB based on how much of 2023 has passed when Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1, as calculated on http://www.easysurf.cc/wdate7.htm with "From" set as January 1 2023, rounded. For example, if Metaculus r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 497.49471354074706, "YES": 182.75686033637697}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1646512136577

100

MetaculusBot

1646496060819

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

2

1715657938595

0

0.1189033248927259

0.11

mixAWKmuOFDSyHYKUfbr

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1

how-many-us-troops-in-hundred-thous

500

{"NO": 445, "YES": 55}

How many US troops (in hundred thousands) will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?

1663812855449

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 445, "YES": 55}

0

7.080155061899315

True

play

MKT

public

1646497467316

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9934/us-troops-in-europe-on-june-30-2022/ Resolves PROB in hundred thousands of troops, rounded. i.e. resolution of 115,000 (115k) on Metaculus resolves to 12% here. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 471.70000000094336, "YES": 165.83157118024903}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009433981132056604, "YES": 0.00033166247903553995}

0

1663812855449

100

MetaculusBot

1646497467316

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

1650314749063

0

2

0.1

0.5273292031237434

n2SnS0SUpBSlq7mjgy6q

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5273292031237434

prediction-markets-will-rapidly-gro

98.0795982311362

{"NO": 23.64, "YES": 44.2804017688638}

Prediction markets will rapidly grow once it's easy (for inebriated idiots) to make (dumb) bets for entertainment

1649822340000

uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 23.64, "YES": 44.36}

0

5.163684314093473

True

play

MKT

public

1646499183091

Mosiah

competing for reputation and play money is much less engaging than shitposting with money at stake Mar 5, 11:53am: the more dumb money in the market, the more incentive for smart money to clean up aka "price discovery"/ "efficiency" Mar 5, 11:53am: see: sports betting Mar 5, 11:59am: resolving at market price upon c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 46.696682288184476, "YES": 49.322780553449874}

{"creatorFee": 0.30668009063592816, "platformFee": 0.07667002265898204, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00034641016151377546, "YES": 0.000938083151964686}

0

1649846577243

100

Mosiah

1646499183091

0

https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617

8

1715658652483

0

1

1646892655335

0.5273292031237434

0.2357793071515999

d0mcSqJGqSBwUTT85i1r

{"NO": 74.03127426761564, "YES": 845.4054716970644}

0

will-there-be-an-episode-of-hello-i

1086.494838530331

{"NO": 130, "YES": 65.99999999999999}

Will there be an episode of Hello Internet in 2022?

1672559940000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

{"NO": 130, "YES": 66}

0

3.7714906547330895

True

play

NO

public

1646499758903

Conflux

This market resolves to YES if Hello Internet releases something generally considered an episode in 2022, and NO otherwise. Hello Internet is a podcast cohosted by CGP Grey and Brady Haran which released about a couple episodes per month (on no schedule) from January 31, 2014 to February 28, 2020. A few months later,...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 161.01322927247315, "YES": 111.76373293806}

{"creatorFee": 2.479909923891332, "platformFee": 0.10961333629159527, "liquidityFee": 0.6576800177495715}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1672604958775

140.65137841456408

Conflux

1672558792154

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

21

1650314676282

0

1

22

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["internet"]

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0.15535461519255012

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.15535461519255012

if-i-play-the-legacy-showcase-chall

114

{"NO": 102, "YES": 12}

If I play the Legacy Showcase Challenge on 2022-03-06 will I make top eight?

1646582400000

EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 102, "YES": 12}

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public

1646507042077

andrei klepatch

Resolves YES if I, the user Snusnumrick on Magic Online, make top eight of the Legacy Showcase Challenge on 2022-03-06. Resolves NO if I play in said event and do not make top eight. While I expect to play, in the unlikely event that I do not this market will resolve to N/A. Mar 6, 12:26pm: Resolved NO with the follow...

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andreiklepatch

1646507042077

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dt7gHxcc6xs6TY6jtISF

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0801348796205576

will-my-youtube-channel-get-more-th

228.60822558836693

{"NO": 179.39177441163307, "YES": 28}

Will my YouTube channel get more than 1000 subscribers before the end of March?

1648751410913

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 180, "YES": 28}

0

4.830641973175111

True

play

NO

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1646510233248

Passion Fruit

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7WhliFXf6bOhZMiwz83zjg

BINARY

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0.07402642568810607

will-mrwhosetheboss-have-11-million

147

{"NO": 132.5, "YES": 14.5}

Will Mrwhosetheboss have 11 million or more subscribers before April 1.

1648751231825

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 132.5, "YES": 14.5}

0

4.907029209042847

True

play

NO

public

1646511060673

Passion Fruit

https://www.youtube.com/c/Mrwhosetheboss/

BINARY

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{"NO": 144.61246488632992, "YES": 26.39183586831352}

{"creatorFee": 0.5800000000000002, "platformFee": 0.14500000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1648751231825

100

PassionFruit

1646511060673

0

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1715658640361

0

1647113862411

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us-presidency-2024

66978.0265051118

US Presidency 2024

1730912400000

VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

8.143721140527184

False

basic

public

1646511977147

Johnny

Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 59.17842340585114, "platformFee": 10.00670041814926, "liquidityFee": 0}

81.6168597813087

8039.999999999984

TheSkeward

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0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c

0

174

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "369cee010d95", "prob": 0.022135146484888003, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.014042310063622943, "userId": "VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6203474407884819, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pHKtCGAZQ38CMIVwmqXw", "createdTime": 1646511977358, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0022948...

127

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505344}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582224}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "unsubsidized"]

0.14863756420308408

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1720241138996

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when-will-russias-nuclear-readiness

569.9330896626332

When will Russia's nuclear readiness scale return to Level 1?

1664665832971

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.699692180841219

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play

CANCEL

public

1646512051927

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10048/russia-to-return-to-nuclear-level-1/ Acceptable answers are <month> <year>, i.e. “December 2022”. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664665832971

599.9999999999999

MetaculusBot

1664665856016

0

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5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c0c918095809", "prob": 0.7800973504718555, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.297905145419467, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.258824316228004, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UdbPU3JdUqTFov30FiEN", "createdTime": 1646512052131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

6

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223197}]

["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1664665853809

False

True

0.018271828785915323

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-russia-control-vinnytsia-on-ju

2310

{"NO": 2115, "YES": 195}

Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 2115, "YES": 195}

0

9.98330678838554

True

play

NO

public

1646512476890

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10045/will-russia-control-vinnytsia-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 2288.799735669464, "YES": 312.25052441971974}

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{"NO": 0.0007810249675906654, "YES": 0.0006244997998398398}

0

1654218611563

100

MetaculusBot

1646512476890

0

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0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372205}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224056}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

False

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0.9785659664820707

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{"NO": 588.8935211277801, "YES": 97.69122461765434}

1

zelenskyy-still-president-of-ukrain

2917.68198083976

{"NO": 99.46232730014867, "YES": 1808}

Zelenskyy still President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?

1650643200000

VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 91, "YES": 1808}

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1646512560770

Johnny

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022, 9 AM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. If the office of President of Ukraine is dissolved or otherwise ceases to exist before the resolution date of this market, or if the office is otherwise eliminated, this...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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{"NO": 0.0006633249580710799, "YES": 0.0007483314773547884}

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TheSkeward

1646512560770

0

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