CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10051/us-to-sanction-russian-oilgas-before-2023/

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Note that this date is the midterm election day. Close date updated to 2022-11-09 9:00 am

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From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10056/will-russia-control-kharkiv-on-june-1/

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Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10055/viktor-medvedchuk-as-the-president-of-ukraine/

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cpmm-1

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Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10094/will-russia-control-kyiv-on-june-1/

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Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10039/russias-nominal-gdp-in-2023/ Resolves PROB to the Metaculus resolution multiplied by ten (hundred billions instead of trillions to allow for more granularity). i.e. 1.05 on Metaculus would resolve to 11% here. 2022 equivalent here: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/w...

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From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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1650314579904

0

1

54

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417271}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "XtJuq...

["world-default", "global-macro", "sweden", "metaculus", "nato", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "geopolitics"]

0.32256771484692737

1704085015479

1704060994208

0.01

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

0.13469360937489405

Rw4AxxuYfeatdue8UaQe

{"NO": 174.4722638888642, "YES": 991.3484266240787}

0

will-there-be-a-serious-radiation-i

3747.4901459165653

{"NO": 545, "YES": 65}

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 545, "YES": 65}

0.44343518655520947

2.8251254918188446

True

play

NO

public

1646514701781

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 563.9158536527857, "YES": 232.59434644902697}

{"creatorFee": 26.3648110745265, "platformFee": 0.07028710364203718, "liquidityFee": 0.4217226218522231}

{"NO": 0.0009746794344808964, "YES": 0.00022360679774997898}

0

1705183808303

220.4217226218522

MetaculusBot

1705183808636

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

36

1650314594442

0

3

27

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125147}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370702}, {"name": "U...

["nuclear-risk", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.15440553649692002

1703135896574

1705183805460

False

0.03

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.9740469774034318

lZ68JXyM3OdkAjJefPpE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9740469774034318

will-apple-announce-a-new-iphone-se

85

{"NO": 7.500000000000001, "YES": 77.5}

Will Apple announce a new iPhone SE before March 9?

1646762400000

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7.500000000000001, "YES": 77.5}

0

5.075571465426832

True

play

YES

public

1646514734420

Passion Fruit

https://www.apple.com/iphone/ Close date updated to 2022-03-08 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-08 10:00 am

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 13.69361166018666, "YES": 83.8907325078283}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1646772833994

100

PassionFruit

1646514734420

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

3

1715658623091

0

1

0.9740469774034318

0.15513895448530227

d5B4s5ifgbWL1RH6nonx

{"NO": 911.707847261123, "YES": 2114.8328091876983}

0.07335482670596108

will-a-human-step-foot-on-mars-by-2

10002.50565786696

{"NO": 472.84283360771155, "YES": 232.04347806050373}

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?

1925096340000

b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 470, "YES": 232}

0

9.691051419995135

False

basic

public

1646515297261

James G

This market resolves yes if on or before Jan 1st, 2031, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 564.2186606908656, "YES": 422.5203250484516}

{"creatorFee": 8.970254427170723, "platformFee": 0.8596533895948842, "liquidityFee": 4.586077645653232}

{"NO": 0.0008888194417315589, "YES": 0.000458257569495584}

0

1059.5860776456532

JamesG

1713949485366

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c

1

121

1650314677701

0

88

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupI...

["technology-default", "space", "science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.17584247715715007

1713949485366

1681837341601

0.36090570591412074

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{"NO": 819.3413763285018, "YES": 1956.8721445664758}

0.19123008988385237

will-a-human-step-foot-on-mars-by-2-8cc75fd1cb55

9178.78007007894

{"NO": 159.99812009561288, "YES": 240}

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?

2082862740000

b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 157, "YES": 240}

0

9.413029253207572

False

basic

public

1646515429921

James G

This market resolves YES if on or before Jan 1st, 2036, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.04123008988385235}

0

{"NO": 251.8313008087026, "YES": 310.77369903236865}

{"creatorFee": 6.526246406337061, "platformFee": 0.11213428452494785, "liquidityFee": 0.6728057071496871}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1140.6728057071496

JamesG

1718208762796

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c

1

86

1650314723127

0

38

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462391}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104989579}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-...

["space", "futurism", "mars"]

1718208756479

1698467302956

0.4707308195869559

3SH5rofOZ1xtJswT9pAC

{"NO": 812.8891606592707, "YES": 1178.723637598799}

0.3801754893938787

will-a-human-step-foot-on-mars-by-2-f5665ef8d096

1775.7706858518068

{"NO": 144.2971988874075, "YES": 186.53213562682112}

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?

2240715540000

b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 165, "YES": 185}

0

9.726371828765577

False

basic

public

1646515509976

James G

This market resolves yes if on or before Jan 1st, 2041, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"NO": 241.07282265651617, "YES": 226.56699762149023}

{"creatorFee": 6.015531074108268, "platformFee": 0.8827136528176227, "liquidityFee": 1.8006896324158252}

{"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888}

0

1000

JamesG

1716259938205

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c

0

47

1650313788206

0

35

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443256}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529460925}]

["technology-default", "space"]

1716259934926

1707022238664

0.6385243346611953

41QOciAE7nlyRl48m3HK

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6385243346611953

will-apple-announce-an-updated-mac

29

{"NO": 11, "YES": 18}

Will Apple announce an updated Mac mini before March 9?

1646790815149

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 11, "YES": 18}

0

5.606465955962464

True

play

NO

public

1646515683324

Passion Fruit

Close date updated to 2022-03-08 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 17.43622667035503, "YES": 23.17403720761663}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646790815149

100

PassionFruit

1646515683324

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

6

1715656960213

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443405}]

["technology-default"]

0.6385243346611953

LHoKdu7DBBsDPpyBQwjE

test-market-98cc5d7e756a

13

Test market

1646516224112

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-multi-1

0

6.163470737295518

True

play

MKT

public

1646516172205

Passion Fruit

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646516224112

280

PassionFruit

1646516172205

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b92e69a52d1a", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 68.8122686868953, "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.48046539395775, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LHoKdu7DBBsDPpyBQwjE", "createdTime": 1646516172603, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

{"5a807b19a84c": 36.231884057971016, "608a7cbd450a": 30.434782608695652, "b6de4adef466": 33.33333333333333}

True

QdbwswW8GPSPFUk684nk

what-products-will-apple-announce-a

240.60720366468638

What Products will Apple announce at the March 8 event?

1646769540000

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.842448618414114

True

play

MKT

public

1646516563162

Passion Fruit

Close date updated to 2022-03-08 11:59 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646772944912

520

PassionFruit

1646516563162

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0848da0d4ee2", "prob": 0.002619285890140038, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.010738258613910784, "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.08895114693497, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QdbwswW8GPSPFUk684nk", "createdTime": 1646516563412, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

{"50f8e7079e38": 2.3696751698518614, "a28b3227617e": 82.53428673136634, "d780ce64c6d7": 13.303439550045537, "db7f48902810": 0.7122883259086883, "fc2b885ccd8a": 1.0803102228275754}

True

0.04512637254555098

MPRaTEs2NbGG0nPe9ASN

{"NO": 1042.8778069873797, "YES": 293.03267095773066}

0.1439753600294805

will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first

6942.570534206432

{"NO": 494.71809524899624, "YES": 65.12332829437906}

Will Joe Biden resign in his first term?

1737392400000

VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 495, "YES": 59}

0.15861925062588952

7.879994168822433

False

basic

public

1646518190553

Johnny

BINARY

{"day": -0.08699548456557601, "week": 0.12797835486705358, "month": 0.12797835486705358}

0

{"NO": 524.7553352415886, "YES": 195.07787505098608}

{"creatorFee": 40.43378856868538, "platformFee": 0.2626019802002667, "liquidityFee": 1.5586975961413745}

{"NO": 0.0009055385138137418, "YES": 0.0004242640687119285}

197.63114519169574

1000

TheSkeward

1720225636934

1.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c

0

84

1650312527507

6

1

59

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482941}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856963}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p...

["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics"]

0.13109319852175808

1720225633785

1712002272589

False

0.06120565040530679

5Qv0uELzJYfEozpMrMyK

{"NO": 587.3621203806207, "YES": 2066.216529870877}

0

will-nato-declare-a-nofly-zone-anyw

4134.948237563121

{"NO": 779.9999999999999, "YES": 50}

Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 780, "YES": 50}

0

2.6190569293961663

True

play

NO

public

1646519986598

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/#comment-84503

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 807.0945173899644, "YES": 193.6494255092434}

{"creatorFee": 0.18069234111643687, "platformFee": 1.1368683772161603e-15, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009695359714832658, "YES": 0.0002449489742783178}

0

1672610425022

640

MetaculusBot

1672448331690

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

23

1650313800854

0

1

21

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370716}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223768}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1672448331532

False

0.02

0.4317188737674585

wSw18l5YP2qAaVeutqTe

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.4317188737674585

will-my-youtube-video-get-5k-views

422

{"NO": 327, "YES": 85}

Will my YouTube video get 5k views by the end of the month?

1648750452636

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 327, "YES": 85}

0

4.729530605939343

True

play

NO

public

1646520972295

Passion Fruit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwQ_7utvToQ

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 398.0133841976925, "YES": 106.44327127864871}

{"creatorFee": 3.3999999999999986, "platformFee": 0.8499999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648750452636

100

PassionFruit

1646520972295

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

9

1715658882082

0

1648111089656

0.4317188737674585

0.8820963436086281

8bi8b8kZCAiq0T63dJrI

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8820963436086281

will-the-march-8-apple-event-be-ove

43

{"NO": 7, "YES": 36}

Will the March 8 Apple event be over an hour long?, Apple

1646762400000

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7, "YES": 36}

0

5.380308721929719

True

play

NO

public

1646521222084

Passion Fruit

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 14.765297169376577, "YES": 40.38653241490287}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646772756081

100

PassionFruit

1646521222084

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

5

1715657646209

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444470}]

["technology-default"]

0.8820963436086281

0.049312004510469805

BQvvvsOPKvha9py2kpx3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.049312004510469805

will-russian-forces-reach-and-begin

1826.3464305338903

{"NO": 1345.3244688183256, "YES": 237.65356946610962}

Will Russian forces reach and begin a siege of city of Dnipro by the end of March?

1648277940000

Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1346, "YES": 239}

0

4.646208287099814

True

play

NO

public

1646521243098

Vlad Sitalo

This market resolves Yes if by April 1st Russian forces reached the city of Dnipro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) and engaged into fighting on the outskirts of it/started shelling the city.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1543.4557002183149, "YES": 351.5211759076647}

{"creatorFee": 9.506142778644378, "platformFee": 2.3765356946610945, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005567764362830023, "YES": 0.0008306623862918075}

0

1648831596402

100

vlad

1646521243098

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c

20

1715657733445

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475987}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226527}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1647798332474

False

0.049312004510469805

0.5551988779068872

AqrNzE52EBLinhjKDGbf

{"NO": 127.07800294947307, "YES": 85.46892708074249}

1

will-us-based-crypto-exchanges-stop

923.3504988842452

{"NO": 298.85272643794394, "YES": 473.79703218764996}

Will US based crypto exchanges stop doing business with Russia?

1659337200000

6UIxfArZ8GMbyOl6xZKU63o8sb42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 299, "YES": 475}

0

2.7873125173941578

True

play

YES

public

1646522225168

Voyager

This market resolves YES if Coinbase or Binance announce new restrictions to Russian users before Aug 1 2022. Mar 5, 7:33pm: > does it count if the exchanges announce a de facto can't-do-this as a general consequence of OTHER businesses they're interfaced with refusing to service Russians? I would count this as well...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 515.8379749728357, "YES": 575.2394096205769}

{"creatorFee": 1.2156799886657568, "platformFee": 0.17535585150691743, "liquidityFee": 0.9799570403005021}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1659423929343

100.97995704030052

voyagerB

1659423915765

0

https://firebasestorage.…892-45c4eadc1302

19

1650313836050

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475404}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226528}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1659101611822

1659423912015

False

0.6498425820014284

iKTF7M2xniP6vbVUHUmJ

if-merrin-becomes-a-clericoracle-wh

421.344044974566

If Merrin becomes a cleric/oracle, what god will she be a cleric/oracle of?

1646632269759

PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7342646885135045

True

play

d2bcfeef9c50

public

1646523496864

horse

Reference: https://glowfic.com/posts/5633. If she doesn't become a cleric or oracle by the end of the month, resolves N/A.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646632269759

420

horse

1646523496864

0

https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "36cc61e097ea", "prob": 0.0025681635082579557, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.013900202160397092, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.398606484310635, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iKTF7M2xniP6vbVUHUmJ", "createdTime": 1646523497039, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

{"d2bcfeef9c50": 100}

True

0.6285664770062708

wYtuRdRn0WXS3aWShlDz

{"NO": 7.989012790841588, "YES": 471.545256342993}

0

will-the-fletcher-discord-bot-have

489

{"NO": 51, "YES": 64.00000000000001}

Will the Fletcher discord bot have Manifold Markets integrations before June 2022?

1654066800000

6UIxfArZ8GMbyOl6xZKU63o8sb42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 51, "YES": 64}

0

4.660500749666909

True

play

NO

public

1646528034601

Voyager

Will resolve YES if I can trade on existing markets and/or create or close existing markets. Just following updates on markets is insufficient.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 67.92718160280168, "YES": 92.79616371650285}

{"creatorFee": 2.728461942042066, "platformFee": 0.4547436570070111, "liquidityFee": 2.728461942042066}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1654238813254

102.72846194204207

voyagerB

1654056771930

0

https://firebasestorage.…892-45c4eadc1302

14

1650314810149

0

1

1654056770714

1649689929401

0.027871698839467357

0.01898492599487184

YPh5GZrioYSfH8u5B25D

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.01898492599487184

will-ea-global-london-2022-be-cance

1748

{"NO": 1655, "YES": 53}

Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?

1649995140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1655, "YES": 53}

0

4.643965880557687

True

play

NO

public

1646533359780

Metaculus Bot

Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? Close date updated to 2022-04-17 11:59 pm From: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9510/ea-global-london-2022-rescheduled/ Close date updated to 2022-04-14 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1691.710173168256, "YES": 235.33827992919043}

{"creatorFee": 2.1199999999999886, "platformFee": 0.5299999999999971, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773}

0

1650057583546

100

MetaculusBot

1646533359780

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

13

1715658320043

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372199}]

["metaculus"]

0.01898492599487184

AJUlJI4ySNlB7zbkAyOZ

what-will-be-the-median-of-the-meta

2237.128839070958

What will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated?" on July 1st 2022?

1656647940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.672059439700636

True

play

1cc8135f4797

public

1646533645902

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/ Acceptable answers: whole year, in the format YYYY, i.e. "2042" Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 34.60161408513012, "platformFee": 8.65040352128253, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656700442501

739.9999999999998

MetaculusBot

1656800641141

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "943e24089a88", "prob": 0.34369494915175847, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.475773653173059, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.55186987597212, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AJUlJI4ySNlB7zbkAyOZ", "createdTime": 1646533646051, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1656537006839

1656800637130

{"1cc8135f4797": 100}

True

0.9098762251436905

GamioGvW87T2hF2xlwC3

{"NO": 59.327056060897064, "YES": 105.90073343604111}

0.8497559033464085

what-will-be-the-vaccine-efficacy-o

506

{"NO": 44.999999999999986, "YES": 455}

What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?

1719806340000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 44.999999999999986, "YES": 455}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646533832702

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/ Resolves to PROB matching Metaculus resolution, rounded to nearest whole percentage. i.e. 90.5 would resolve to 91%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.012241928335105179, "month": -0.012241928335105179}

0

{"NO": 150.00029999999995, "YES": 476.97055464767425}

{"creatorFee": 0.31292827490250924, "platformFee": 0.042732342188722995, "liquidityFee": 0.25639405313233793}

{"NO": 0.0002999999999999999, "YES": 0.0009539392014169457}

0

100.25639405313234

MetaculusBot

1719793334499

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

1650313875962

1

3

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]

["medicine"]

1719793331329

1702828607968

0.05751222283063983

AsjH4JH3O66yqBZCELzc

{"NO": 93.8590279508026, "YES": 299.7842109673276}

0

will-the-hen-caging-prohibition-bil

1080

{"NO": 709.7684368601874, "YES": 70}

Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?

1657846868883

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 710, "YES": 70}

0

9.55652708851037

True

play

NO

public

1646533919494

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8034/hen-caging-prohibition-bill-becomes-uk-law/ Close date updated to 2022-07-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 756.9942104541578, "YES": 187.08324350443576}

{"creatorFee": 0.3672542304462767, "platformFee": 0.030756165834408128, "liquidityFee": 0.17064320661769403}

{"NO": 0.0009273618495495704, "YES": 0.0003741657386773942}

0

1657846868883

100.1706432066177

MetaculusBot

1655510630444

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

6

1650313836426

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372303}]

["metaculus"]

1655510628961

0.01874703986580956

LV5L0rE7eEOKJYaDnmhI

how-many-state-of-ai-report-2021-pr

4878.527730632668

How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?

1665623734766

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.639079815475785

True

play

6a0ee0f8c3cb

public

1646534038902

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8187/correct-state-of-ai-report-2021-predictions/ Acceptable answers: whole numbers, i.e. "5". Close date updated to 2022-10-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.159668889377016, "platformFee": 2.789917222344254, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665623734766

880.0000000000002

MetaculusBot

1665597984879

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2acda6d2225a", "prob": 0.058828126070304375, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1231290292195566, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.96857258094777, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LV5L0rE7eEOKJYaDnmhI", "createdTime": 1646534039079, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

9

1665597984768

1665521417565

{"6a0ee0f8c3cb": 100}

True

sFeFah5KwtKRHjlvIhDJ

what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ip

711.711042988551

What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?

1925009940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646534299066

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/ Acceptable answers: decimal to tenth, i.e. "4.2". Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

459.99999999999994

MetaculusBot

1707440261927

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a25c4720e9e1", "prob": 0.5216331708619885, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.525944993204945, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.50100901168854, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sFeFah5KwtKRHjlvIhDJ", "createdTime": 1646534299198, "probChanges": {"day": -0.47836682913...

4

[]

1707440261789

1676485051554

True

0.7817193442828979

vhVtKg7ISS0jcIFjHJXV

{"NO": 186.1431367741746, "YES": 84.53970109581934}

0

will-an-alphabet-company-win-the-ge

665

{"NO": 125, "YES": 410}

Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?

1671152979494

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 125, "YES": 410}

0

4.126367787797371

True

play

NO

public

1646534414737

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8729/alphabet-wins-casp15-for-protein-folding/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 250.00049999999996, "YES": 472.9966384666492}

{"creatorFee": 0.9576137684464978, "platformFee": 0.03623206777539445, "liquidityFee": 0.21739240665236667}

{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}

0

1671152979494

100.21739240665237

MetaculusBot

1664859830324

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

8

1650314801988

0

10

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372280}]

["metaculus"]

1664859830230

0.89

0.20000000000000007

MPTOlqTvf3fWutgiAget

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.20000000000000007

will-gurkenglass-attempt-to-start-a

456.61840740294633

{"NO": 52.197614785426246, "YES": 141.1839778116274}

Will Gurkenglas's attempt to start a bank run be successful?

1646585940000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 136}

0

4.844554665388753

True

play

YES

public

1646534714230

Jenny

@Gurkenglas tried to start a bank run on https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a Resolves YES if both of the following are true - The linked market's NO pool drops below $25 at some point within 12 hours of this market closing. - Gurkenglas and I agree that it was a "real" bank run (and ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 44.72225397718679, "YES": 188.14023258930564}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1646589353679

100

Jenny

1646534714230

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

5

1715658010092

0

1

1646571940453

0.20000000000000007

0.9339619913441846

CAwYdKzqgtLgIylT2Z9E

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9339619913441846

will-the-canada-and-us-borders-acce

241.3717389590093

{"NO": 19.280319562735187, "YES": 163.3479414782555}

Will the Canada and US borders accept the Covid test in the description?

1649271600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 15, "YES": 165}

0

4.856521337012271

True

play

YES

public

1646547751795

Isaac King

I'm flying from Canada to the US and back around the beginning of April. Border crossings by air currently require a Covid test, and probably still will by then. (See: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-usa-still-require-a-negati) Positive tests older than 10 days are accepted in lieu of a recent negative tes...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 46.931814592233856, "YES": 176.49603895685172}

{"creatorFee": 0.7051304416396285, "platformFee": 0.17628261040990711, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1649282108200

100

IsaacKing

1646547751795

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

1715657752318

0

1

1648819133157

0.9339619913441846

0.5

bxAjjfYv0QU1piE915BU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-37787dbb3901

10

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

Test

1646549306539

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

MKT

public

1646549053938

Isaac King

Close date updated to 2022-03-24 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-14 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-05 10:47 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-25 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646549306539

100

IsaacKing

1646549053938

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

1715658410535

0

0.5

0.9591391998107899

UpFOogoBUazwdT5kFqXF

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9591391998107899

will-i-get-the-m1000-back-that-disa

483

{"NO": 91, "YES": 388}

Will I get the > M$1000 back that disappeared after resolving the chess game

1646690100000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 91, "YES": 388}

0

4.714309590628011

True

play

YES

public

1646552458368

Undox

Resolve yes if I get at least 1k of the money back this week (it was just over that). This market is insurance. Mar 6, 6:41pm: So basically i made a $1k YES bet that never paid out after resolving yes Mar 6, 6:41pm: To be clear this means get it back from MM admins, not win it back some other way Close date updated ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 96.82552349923031, "YES": 469.112754036916}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1646870615983

100

Undox

1646552458368

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

7

1715658231610

0

1

1646690025573

0.9591391998107899

0.043817537011844196

aTtz4lYxLNJc50YxYTOC

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.043817537011844196

are-there-more-doors-than-wheels-in

687.5118270245996

{"NO": 366.5407682187475, "YES": 53.947404756652986}

Are there more doors than wheels in the world?

1647669303770

g7JA0Fei6KUxSdwQiP5Uhq20U4t2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 374.5, "YES": 49.5}

0

4.727348507326505

True

play

NO

public

1646565069032

Tao Sumer

Inspired by this tweet (https://twitter.com/NewYorkNixon/status/1500000428985286657?s=20&t=hUmxyzP8_sED_BvwHP9VEg) this market aims at solving the most crucial question of our time. "Wheels" and "Doors" are defined according to their intuitive meaning. "World" is defined as, well, planet Earth. The market will resol...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 411.17358343816034, "YES": 88.01948007207578}

{"creatorFee": 1.8673194866341827, "platformFee": 0.46682987165854567, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647669303770

100

TaoSumer

1685846442537

0

https://firebasestorage.…e93-b16e9f33f119

16

1715658370609

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530339}]

["science-default"]

1685846440494

0.043817537011844196

0.2

scQMuRBfWZcZ4ZhTz1Ix

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.2

if-ukraines-antiair-weapons-double

200

{"NO": 160, "YES": 40}

If Ukraine's anti-air weapons double or more, will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022

1646570261149

DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 160, "YES": 40}

0

4.8377641951088215

True

play

NO

public

1646570207841

Luca Petrolati

We're just talking about "weapons", and not personnel that would man those weapons. They may be acquired in any way possible. Market resolves to YES if Ukraine's anti-air weapons "roughly" double or more, meaning that Ukraine may get more than double of a specific model and less than double of another, but still doubl...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 178.88633262717417, "YES": 89.44316631358708}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1646570261149

100

LucaPetrolati

1646570207841

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c

1

1715658787547

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508073}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226957}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

False

0.2

0.17

QkRLWWuWH4401CLLdmt0

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.17

if-ukraines-antiair-weapons-double-4f81c4465232

200

{"NO": 166, "YES": 34}

If Ukraine's anti-air weapons double or more, will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022

1646743198875

DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 166, "YES": 34}

0

4.8377641951088215

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646570536049

Luca Petrolati

We're just talking about "weapons", and not personnel that would man those weapons. They may be acquired in any way possible. Market resolves to YES/NO/PROB (not NA) if Ukraine's anti-air weapons "roughly" double or more, meaning that Ukraine may get more than double of a specific model and less than double of anothe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 182.2095826262439, "YES": 82.46252482291578}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009110433579144299, "YES": 0.0004123105625617661}

0

1646743198875

100

LucaPetrolati

1646570536049

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c

1

1715658154282

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486159}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226680}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

False

0.17

0.3951612979809819

gB9Q5noa1yI1MGbNmJ7a

{"NO": 35.02651520133493, "YES": 545.6899070368784}

0

will-the-danish-kroner-dkk-at-any-p

586

{"NO": 85, "YES": 55}

Will the Danish Kroner (DKK) at any point before June 1st 2022 buy more than 1.5 Swedish Kroner (SEK)?

1654106118178

S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 85, "YES": 55}

0

3.692925497947139

True

play

NO

public

1646573516745

Billy

This market resolves yes if from now (6 March 2022) until June 1st 2022 the DKK to SEK exchange rate is at or over 1.5, according to xe.com. Rate at time of writing is 1.47.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 108.1673240893478, "YES": 88.88256297131626}

{"creatorFee": 1.8605577787305236, "platformFee": 0.310092963121754, "liquidityFee": 1.8605577787305236}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

1654106118178

101.86055777873052

billyhumblebrag

1654087004301

0

https://firebasestorage.…88d-2e56e976fea8

4

1650314706234

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573117}]

["economics-default"]

1654087002984

0.040248050002468345

0.99

yPQ4LEgp7RR7AnHFRkcy

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.99

how-many-additional-subscribers-wil-a837bd7dd31d

191

{"NO": 57.00000000000001, "YES": 134}

How many additional subscribers will my newsletter have by the end of March?

1648785540000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 57.00000000000001, "YES": 134}

0

4.847101100172882

True

play

YES

public

1646574646125

Nuño Sempere

This market resolves to the number of subscribers over 890 that my newsletter has by end of March 2022. E.g., if I gain 10 subscribers, this market resolves to 10%. If I lose subscribers or if I get more than 100 new ones, this market resolves to 0% or 100% respectively. Past data can be seen here: https://twitter.com/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 102.44078289577838, "YES": 161.2056698776442}

{"creatorFee": 2.2800000000000002, "platformFee": 0.5700000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1648921837586

100

NuñoSempere

1646574646125

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

2

1715658948027

0

1

0.99

0.17890219422950163

S7oLydcuXGwT0Yti4Auf

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.17890219422950163

will-i-censored-by-the-1st-of-july

117

{"NO": 100, "YES": 17}

Will I [censored] by the 1st of July?

1648833894208

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 17}

0

4.969662994051516

True

play

YES

public

1646575836410

Nuño Sempere

I moved to a new city in a new continent on January the 22nd, and I haven't [censored] since January the 21st. IMHO the odds are looking pretty grim. I might reveal what [censored] means to friends, but Manifolders are welcome to guess, or to forecast with incomplete knowledge, e.g., using Laplace's law (https://www....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 106.01980947398464, "YES": 49.48771564843138}

{"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1648833894208

100

NuñoSempere

1646575836410

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

5

1715658183236

0

0.17890219422950163

48aqn6JpkngRSAZnqjZn

when-will-the-covid19-pandemic-be-o

427.8165597883714

When will the COVID-19 pandemic be “over” and life be “back to normal”?

1685376201228

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.8208872300077665

True

play

28eb9d4aa058

public

1646576623445

David Glidden

Acceptable answers: “<full month> <year>”, i.e. “August 2022”. This question is by its nature subjective, but I intend to resolve this as fairly and openly as possible. For context, I live in Washington, DC, USA and will resolve based on my experience. Some criteria: 1. Masks are no longer worn anywhere I go in the U...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1685376201228

619.9999999999998

dglid

1684537630135

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a1fc2a158560", "prob": 0.20974522342571295, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.647139791385003, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.81204467292032, "textFts": "", "contractId": "48aqn6JpkngRSAZnqjZn", "createdTime": 1646576623669, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

5

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132015792}]

["medicine"]

1684537629982

1665355366759

{"28eb9d4aa058": 100}

True

0.2597821832725413

a5376qhaNKPgYH1pmgkx

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.2597821832725413

i-will-bet-no-on-this-market-will-i

146.7011736852378

{"NO": 47.29882631476221, "YES": 24}

I will bet "NO" on this market. Will I resolve this market in a way that pays out to myself?

1647706511194

BHZjG9oDUpgODOZULisZTQtzTo82

cpmm-1

{"NO": 45, "YES": 24}

0

5.143617389092066

True

play

NO

public

1646576684360

Basil Halperin

I will bet "NO" on this market with all of my remaining funds. If I resolve this market as "NO", then my bet on the market will pay out to myself, and the market should be resolved as "YES". If I resolve this market as "YES", then my bet on the market will NOT pay out to myself, and the market should be resolved as "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 61.343455880686506, "YES": 36.34068867164634}

{"creatorFee": 1.0519530525904885, "platformFee": 0.26298826314762214, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647706511194

100

BasilHalperin

1646576684360

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwk0xTazqavymWXZ5mVDCiJ5cv0T-IS-DIj9Tol=s96-c

7

1715658354340

0

1647642828601

0.2597821832725413

0.034466177252056925

Ka2Rb9rKJ2eXywTrNmRw

{"NO": 155.55994999525834, "YES": 340.56316697488603}

0

will-any-member-of-nato-call-for-hu

746.0000000000002

{"NO": 520, "YES": 20}

Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 520, "YES": 20}

0

9.676220307643511

True

play

NO

public

1646582947891

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10047/nato-member-to-call-for-hungarys-expulsion/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 530.6609463687337, "YES": 100.00019999999999}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009797958971132711, "YES": 0.0002}

0

1704124556749

160

MetaculusBot

1704124557094

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

8

1650314536165

0

1

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371099}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129767331}]

["metaculus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1013984194731977

1697388026918

0.02

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.16859974495769678

IGOt86E5E4NUZ5MpunqU

{"NO": 99.88416671220382, "YES": 645.3005079386777}

0

will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z

2042.655149702323

{"NO": 435.4918798416019, "YES": 610}

Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?

1672610407378

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 435, "YES": 610}

0

4.28792524775318

True

play

NO

public

1646583026743

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-presidential-peace-talks/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-preside...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 575.8344194482488, "YES": 872.622531899208}

{"creatorFee": 2.5240382809720963, "platformFee": 0.32008533139954976, "liquidityFee": 1.9205119883972988}

{"NO": 0.0008, "YES": 0.0006}

0

1672610407378

201.92051198839732

MetaculusBot

1672269961073

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

27

1650313886330

0

23

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016199545}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406876}, {"...

["stefans-group", "global-macro", "wars", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1672269960925

1661856402141

False

0.03

0.2988861968290804

4oYf7Zyx7BViHgwshUzg

{"NO": 897.1560135219996, "YES": 1125.2908598872775}

0.2536622897817826

will-total-us-military-expenditure

323.3391505326663

{"NO": 22.5, "YES": 42.5}

Will total US military expenditure top its all-time high by 2024?

1735718400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 22.5, "YES": 42.5}

0

9.635636042255502

False

basic

public

1646587657659

Isaac King

https://ourworldindata.org/military-spending 2010 was the year with the highest total US military spending so far. This market resolves to yes if Our World in Data (or a suitable replacement if it stops being a reliable source) shows the military spending of 2022, 2023, or 2024 to be above the 2010 total, adjusted for...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"NO": 38.891451509297, "YES": 52.08248266451975}

{"creatorFee": 0.3246323725144484, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1704698559639

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

18

1650313796689

0

13

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469459}]

["politics-default"]

1704698559486

1697423656317

0egXq3zPIz6S10FXkCnR

in-what-year-will-the-next-great-fi

721.151221072792

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

4102462740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646590557549

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/ Acceptable answers: full year, in format YYYY, i.e. "2022" Resolves to the year corresponding to the resolution made on the above Metaculus question. i.e. if the question resolves to "Mar 24, 2028", this market resolves to "2028".

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

600

MetaculusBot

1692434359296

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "88f3fd874491", "prob": 0.5689984554657774, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.61730637129886, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.009080116637143, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0egXq3zPIz6S10FXkCnR", "createdTime": 1646590557728, "probChanges": {"day": -0.43100154453...

5

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733674526}]

["ancient-markets"]

1692434359149

True

0.024490145772844644

BNBrvqmTs0G0mmWAeuIG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.024490145772844644

will-manifold-markets-have-1k-daus

350

{"NO": 320, "YES": 30}

Will Manifold Markets have >=1k DAUs on any day in March?

1648796340000

RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 320, "YES": 30}

0

4.748473220687836

True

play

NO

public

1646594421860

lippy

This market resolves to YES if the first unique Active Users chart on https://manifold.markets/analytics shows >=1k users on any day before April and NO otherwise. I'll resolve this to N/A if the page/chart disappears or the data is obviously bad (e.g. negative numbers). I won't use the Google Data Studio data because ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 345.6886460396118, "YES": 54.77280347307412}

{"creatorFee": 1.199999999999999, "platformFee": 0.29999999999999977, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1648831133102

100

lippy

1646594421860

0

https://firebasestorage.…1a9-77d097e34bba

4

1715657732159

0

1

0.024490145772844644

0.5

P5RLz8B26U1yeNVJ23NZ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-sam-resolve-will-manifold-mark

105

{"NO": 55, "YES": 50}

Will @Sam resolve "Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?" by May 2022

1646596113661

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 55, "YES": 50}

0

5.003052247763852

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646595231369

Jenny

Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/sam/will-manifold-market-questions-be-s resolves this month (EST). Mar 6, 2:33pm: Before April 31 23:59:59 EST Mar 6, 2:48pm: Wait, it's not April? Never mind.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 81.5482066050505, "YES": 66.14453870502084}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646596113661

100

Jenny

1646595231369

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

3

1715658098452

0

1646595833382

0.5

S65cNXOFmYyZs8WyeRHa

which-answer-to-this-question-will

97.98947426732133

Which answer to this question will rank second?

1647147540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.032565713375332

True

play

088e66f5ac0f

public

1646595601854

Jenny

I will resolve this to the answer with SECOND highest probability.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.160421029307147, "platformFee": 0.7901052573267867, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647482841340

460

Jenny

1646595601854

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "94459e9b3b83", "prob": 0.010848315429275716, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.13633057146383637, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.430650205655626, "textFts": "", "contractId": "S65cNXOFmYyZs8WyeRHa", "createdTime": 1646595602015, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

{"088e66f5ac0f": 100}

True

0.7533077193993016

JRzyleybZUTR8GHXs7ug

{"NO": 2528.9084050048773, "YES": 2870.194711190619}

0.7290365541266953

will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru

746636.5446819322

{"NO": 1137.767484167888, "YES": 1335.9735980328019}

Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?

1730530740000

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1155, "YES": 1344}

0.02061103003804684

4.130649856822027

False

basic

public

1646597653548

April

Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.

BINARY

{"day": -0.04129332183635159, "week": -0.14603017792081974, "month": -0.21788076310380222}

0

{"NO": 1670.8717273320326, "YES": 1824.1676348551612}

{"creatorFee": 1065.48427632006, "platformFee": 169.1837056055688, "liquidityFee": 31.36038809966596}

{"NO": 0.00058309518948453, "YES": 0.000812403840463596}

5188.443669369058

3125.0001783233956

April

1720240694021

3.2

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

31

1416

1650313895239

21

443

[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856962}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 16600539295...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "global-macro", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.36528022128206195

1720240690610

1720124473617

False

0.64

KQPKkgyJb3JeXxn96Yxe

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.64

will-apple-announce-new-products-wi

37.916671925266876

{"NO": 9.083328074733124, "YES": 25}

Will Apple announce new products with M1 Pro or M1 Max chips at the March 8 event?

1646762400000

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 10, "YES": 25}

0

5.509468885313675

True

play

YES

public

1646598086065

Passion Fruit

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 17.654784615113275, "YES": 29.155616963117073}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1646773016113

100

PassionFruit

1646598086065

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

3

1715657954549

0

1

0.64

0.09111569331564627

S9YwfZkk2dobvt6sJffk

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.09111569331564627

will-mkbhd-shorts-have-over-500k-su

140

{"NO": 127, "YES": 13}

Will MKBHD Shorts have over 500k subscribers before the end of March?

1648751319059

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 127, "YES": 13}

0

4.919563354551876

True

play

NO

public

1646600163413

Passion Fruit

https://www.youtube.com/c/MKBHDShort/featured

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 135.62910454692238, "YES": 34.71348442320362}

{"creatorFee": 0.5199999999999997, "platformFee": 0.12999999999999992, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}

0

1648751319059

100

PassionFruit

1646600163413

0

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See discussions on Discord for more information Mar 20, 5:10pm: Also resolves YES if they acknowledge that having separate money pools for each answer in a free-response market is a problem.

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As mentioned in https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-i-make-an-faq-about-manifold-fea, I made an FAQ about how Manifold works, which is here: https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/ This market resolves to PROB 10x the number of factual errors in the FAQ that are pointed out to me by the close date. (e.g....

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Where will the S&P 500 close on July 31, 2022?

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Rounded to nearest $100, i.e. "$4,300".

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{"NO": 14.7, "YES": 1.2999999999999998}

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Passion Fruit

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How much will dinner cost tonight?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Going here tonight with wife and another couple to celebrate friend’s promotion: https://www.dauphinesdc.com/menus/ Resolves to closest answer to full amount on the check for the 4 of us when they bring it, which includes tax but probably does not automatically include tip. I plan on getting one cocktail (Vieux), my ...

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cpmm-multi-1

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Andy Martin

I'll listen to at least 15 minutes of each of the first 20 submissions and will resolve this to my favorite at the end of the week. One submission per person -- if you submit more than one, I'll only consider your first submission. Re: my musical tastes, a few current favorites are: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7130367031547629

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{"NO": 25, "YES": 41}

Will someone post a video (existing or new) of someone folding paper in the shape of the MM logo.

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 25, "YES": 41}

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Undox

Can be on any video platform. Has to be exact match to logo, inducing head, tail and wing shape. This market is me using MM as Fiverr for a pointless task :-) Mar 7, 2:49pm: liquidating to yolo

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This market will resolve in whichever direction pisses the most people off

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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CANCEL

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Matthew Barnett

I'll use my discretion.

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What will be my favorite version of Bach's "Goldberg Variations" submitted here by the end of March?

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cpmm-multi-1

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play

CANCEL

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Andy Martin

I'll listen to at least 15 minutes of each of the first 20 submissions and will resolve this to my favorite at the end of the month. One submission per person -- if you submit more than one, I'll only consider your first submission. Here are two I really like: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMHx9PLLoto - https://w...

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AndyMartin

1646616922663

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will-scihub-or-a-successor-organisa

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{"NO": 65, "YES": 522}

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 65, "YES": 522}

0.33684297703378874

1.0485693591760707

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basic

NO

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1646621973751

Metaculus Bot

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What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?

1646789287581

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.706843798088367

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play

CANCEL

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1646622327449

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7910/active-volcanos-in-2022/ Mar 8, 8:26pm: Reposting here with defined acceptable answers: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-will-the-number-of-active-volc-8b587dd8b542

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will-there-be-a-peace-deal-between

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Will there be a peace deal between Russia and the Ukraine by March 13, 2022.

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1830, "YES": 59}

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1646622489259

BCG

I'm leaving the definition of "peace deal" a little bit vague. I will resolve this to "yes" if there is generally understood to be a deal that ends the conflict, even if it hasn't been officially signed. Mar 7, 10:04am: Just a ceasefire wouldn't count. I think there is a fair chance they will resolve the conflict this...

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What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?

1672549140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.650298255872219

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1646622649247

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8808/total-fish-helped-by-fwi-by-2023/ Rounded to nearest 50k. Acceptable answers: Whole numbers divisible by 50k, preferably in the format "<#>k", i.e. "900k", "950k", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1673055527987

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will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at

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{"NO": 449, "YES": 75}

Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?

1704085140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 449, "YES": 75}

0

3.287759944760626

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play

NO

public

1646623202034

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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will-the-us-reimplement-a-ban-on-fu

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{"NO": 584.1179433706743, "YES": 190}

Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 580, "YES": 190}

0

4.298800964591834

True

play

NO

public

1646623265081

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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MetaculusBot

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["science-default", "metaculus"]

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1672759115079

0.04

0.534202886746421

m6FANJt5ULjmwUT4qcrd

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0.5385320848342502

at-any-point-before-the-end-of-the

622.984062634477

{"NO": 270, "YES": 280}

At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?

1735707540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 270, "YES": 280}

0.06602513811124784

9.616087495394726

False

basic

public

1646623391758

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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MetaculusBot

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0.1176711937559334

1706697148260

QfzYBn99cW75HnbVPGY0

how-many-migrants-will-die-or-go-mi

539

How many migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.703752452120496

True

play

b13678b2996e

public

1646623763592

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/ Rounded to nearest 100. Acceptable answers: whole numbers divisible by 100, i.e. "1,700", "1,800", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1672697791262

440

MetaculusBot

1646623763592

0

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ANYONE

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True

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.877546694663582

will-i-get-glowfic-tags-from-at-lea

312.35001716133263

{"NO": 46.5, "YES": 233.14998283866737}

Will I get glowfic tags from at least five different people during any one day of this coming week?

1646702035500

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

{"NO": 46.5, "YES": 239.5}

0

4.779341908159431

True

play

YES

public

1646623926827

Alicorn

This market resolves to YES if on at least one of March 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, or 13, five different people tag glowfic threads in such a way as to make me the next respondent. (Tags in threads where I'm a cameo character, for instance, only count if my character participates in the scene thus advanced; tags in threa...

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0

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1646702035500

100

Alicorn

1646623926827

0

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1715657983643

0

0.877546694663582

0.10360459199961168

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0.10067384525761973

is-the-quadrillionth-digit-of-pi-a

371.20339335569594

{"NO": 85.79467291049608, "YES": 23}

Is the quadrillionth digit of Pi a 6?

1894521600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 86, "YES": 23}

0.44775796562813897

10.115025737952333

False

basic

public

1646624900944

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves once the answer is publicly known. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80 Mar 9, ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is referring to base 10, and counting...

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0

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IsaacKing

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0.13580887035005795

will-manifold-allow-us-to-comment-o

39

{"NO": 21, "YES": 5.999999999999998}

Will Manifold allow us to comment on closed markets by the end of March?

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y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 21, "YES": 6}

0

5.651188988695374

True

play

NO

public

1646624980394

Isaac King

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does-planet-nine-exist

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Does Planet Nine exist?

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y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 66}

0.01529547497075014

8.358062950886445

False

basic

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1646625322164

Isaac King

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{"NO": 19, "YES": 9}

[Wavelength] What fraction useful are irons?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 19, "YES": 9}

0

5.628292706023645

True

play

MKT

public

1646629504055

Daniel Reeves

We're playing the board game _Wavelength_. Long story. This is just for us Soule-Reeveses. Close date updated to 2022-03-06 9:30 pm

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dreev

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{"NO": 38, "YES": 14}

How popular is the song "No Control"

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{"NO": 38, "YES": 14}

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5.284160854434472

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MKT

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1646630923676

bethany soule

The market for wavelength

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bethanysoule

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{"NO": 66.8, "YES": 147.2}

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1646636309944

Daniel Reeves

I believe that Manifold's resolve-to-PROB feature means that Manifold basically already has "range" markets. Like if you want to predict how much money a famous painting will sell for, to pick a random example, you can specify a range, MIN to MAX, and then resolve the market to the fraction of the way from MIN to MAX t...

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Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 94, "YES": 23}

0

9.680683814580956

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basic

public

1646636499205

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if real money prediction markets become legal without having to jump through regulatory hurdles such as PredictIt and Kalshi did. In the event of an ambiguous result (such as the loosening of some regulations but not others), I'll r...

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how-should-i-ask-if-this-research-p

183.6485661954453

How should I ask if this research paper will generalize to humans? https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2202.08360

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cpmm-multi-1

0

5.173551096817973

True

play

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public

1646640371079

L

If answers are sufficiently near duplicate for my taste, the higher-trading one will win.

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0

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True

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9928467533085705

will-ketanji-brown-jackson-be-confi

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{"NO": 175, "YES": 4214}

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the US Senate to become a supreme court justice?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 175, "YES": 4214}

0

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True

play

YES

public

1646653341541

BCG

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BruceGrugett

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0

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0

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will-the-humanitarian-corridor-ceas

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{"NO": 12.092333097461491, "YES": 80}

Will the humanitarian corridor ceasefire break down again?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 11, "YES": 80}

0

5.0469001289837365

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play

NO

public

1646660874007

Em ✨

Ceasefire quickly violated the last two times they negotiated to evacuate citizens. Mar 10, 3:44am: Surprisingly difficult trying to figure out what happened with the Sumy corridor. I see reports of it being used successfully? Also a late night bombing of Sumy? Mar 10, 3:52pm: To the best of my understanding it appea...

BINARY

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100

hamnox

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0

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will-the-full-edmonton-marathon-tak

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{"NO": 35, "YES": 65}

Will the full Edmonton Marathon take place in August 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 35, "YES": 65}

0

3.0468007936700894

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play

YES

public

1646662547882

Jasper Woodard

This market will resolve as "YES" if registration is open for the Servus Edmonton Marathon by May 31, 2022. Registration must be open to the general public and the full, in-person marathon must be one of the events offered.

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 59.161389438974474, "YES": 80.62338370876033}

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JasperWoodard

1646662547882

0

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395595}]

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if-theres-a-nuclear-war-by-the-end

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{"NO": 169.7044242695326, "YES": 76}

If there's a nuclear war by the end of 2022, will I die?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 174, "YES": 76}

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3.19021343485547

True

play

CANCEL

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1646670958725

Matthew Barnett

I currently live in Harlem. I plan to move to South San Francisco by June.

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1666643792074

120

MatthewBarnett

1666645479515

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

20

1650314686489

0

21

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}]

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1666645476886

0.2187038041302059

0.0003472362318417992

YSELW2seOjL7ScV3xKn5

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0003472362318417992

will-russian-stock-exchange-reopen

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{"NO": 5549.8435975545235, "YES": 73.68140570591515}

Will Russian stock exchange reopen by March 12th?

1647029971082

elagc5OpvzNBftXmzYdwgJjpJYX2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5559.9400000000005, "YES": 67.06}

0

4.6239716579757895

True

play

NO

public

1646671923434

tb

On 24 February 2022 Moscow Exchange suspended trading until further notice. It hasn't reopened since. Resolves to YES if Moscow Exchange reopens trading by March 12th (Friday the 11th, is the last day to open). Resolves NO otherwise.

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0

1647029971082

100

tb

1646671923434

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiE8Yp83tVI7MWvBVgKc_kGl5udHhbjYCLbcmvlvQ=s96-c

17

1715658323016

0

1646874525512

0.0003472362318417992

0.051590512647103764

iRimT7yrfo7RhCKyqACG

{"NO": 171.38469562149487, "YES": 406.86535821502207}

0

will-gas-prices-reach-700-per-gallo

454.08255258400925

{"NO": 165, "YES": 20}

Will gas prices reach $7.00 per gallon in Florida by 12/31/2022?

1672536635679

G3S3nhcGWhPU3WEtlUYbAH4tv7f1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 165, "YES": 20}

0

9.140848668220892

True

play

NO

public

1646672597455

AGG

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 178.46660752280803, "YES": 48.73438211673562}

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{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1672536635679

180

AGG

1668550752747

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ef-7839c1d6b8d0

11

1650314722942

0

11

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573688}]

["economics-default"]

1668550752569

0.02

0.7010869894971685

Obvnzxne25edxzxzaQhN

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7010869894971685

would-you-find-an-unofficial-mm-chr

888.2402216582423

{"NO": 132.75977834175762, "YES": 545.0000000000001}

Would you find an unofficial MM chrome extension useful?

1647092403714

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 125, "YES": 545}

0

4.686247870090908

True

play

NO

public

1646673556073

Undox

Resolves YES if there is enough positive comments to make me build an MVP. The decision is based on comments not bets. I see the extension as being a tradimg desk. Alerts as new markets are created in or enter a near close window. Tools to do some simple trade automation for example “sell this share if I can get 30M ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 370.5517273713955, "YES": 567.4954537267236}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647092403714

100

Undox

1646673556073

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

7

1715658083569

0

1646779046877

0.7010869894971685

0.18365167031095672

kqWy0FfkrCHN9U7gVMEW

{"NO": 97.06125932811206, "YES": 114.83171298645117}

0

will-valve-release-a-portable-insid

180

{"NO": 115, "YES": 50}

Will valve release a portable, inside-out-tracked headset in 2022?

1660546740000

9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983

cpmm-1

{"NO": 115, "YES": 50}

0

4.623366473714759

True

play

NO

public

1646684253883

L

This market resolves to YES when such a headset begins shipping, NO if this has not occurred by jan 1 2023. l Close date updated to 2022-08-14 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 149.0812865536785, "YES": 70.71138522543595}

{"creatorFee": 0.2120031141731694, "platformFee": 0.008743220124864736, "liquidityFee": 0.05245932074918841}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1703801486821

100.0524593207492

L

1703801487250

0

https://firebasestorage.…776-643c9417e854

7

1650314735020

0

1

8

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["please-resolve"]

1660544767104

1703801480718

0.16

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.9680584406382609

VIirS2l584NTOdX9YA51

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9680584406382609

will-russia-lose-more-than-1300-pie

1509.6994839689764

{"NO": 121.47877872073366, "YES": 1360.82173731029}

Will Russia lose more than 1300 pieces of military equipment by March 15?

1647357669568

QJLcvRf78TeoafY4gUqdKLmk6f32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 121, "YES": 1362}

0

4.648284419430222

True

play

YES

public

1646685305364

Ryan Wismer

This will resolve YES if the total Russian equipment losses as documented by Stijn Mitzer on https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html exceed 1300 items by 5PM EST on March 15. Numbers at question release: Russia - 895, of which: destroyed: 356, damaged: 10, abandoned: 148, captu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 264.9199167521607, "YES": 1458.4358820791192}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1647357669568

100

RyanWismer

1646685305364

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyDzLMHg0ywZ0p9T6VxRbnIISRmy2ByaoJh6XfFMM=s96-c

22

1715658243232

0

1647357519714

0.9680584406382609

nimbPrVy5fZOisZprJQG

what-will-russias-nominal-gdp-be-in-bef463d3e656

100

What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

1646776888404

AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646691629503

Ben J. Smith

Mar 8, 11:20am: This question will resolve as Russia's nominal GDP for the year 2022 in trillions of US dollars as reported by the World Bank. I was hoping for a numeric value market but this is really free-text. Don't think it will work.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646776888404

220

B

1646691629503

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

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True

0.002679402606984644

HNLLMrjW6DmJG7SqeQmm

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.002679402606984644

will-fighter-jets-supplied-by-polan

1724.743154048462

{"NO": 1374.6286078940059, "YES": 58.628238057532116}

Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022?

1646996400000

AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1387, "YES": 52}

0

4.649399609913825

True

play

NO

public

1646692321737

Ben J. Smith

This market resolves positively if reliable sources report that fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022 11:59 PM local Ukraine time. Must be corroborated by multiple reliable sources, i.e., international media other than Ukrainian or Russian sources. Jets may be flown or transported b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1431.336420615762, "YES": 74.18964887705023}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647022130194

100

B

1646692321737

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c

14

1715657882550

0

1

1646785001872

0.002679402606984644

0.09830665568926995

Z6fe1fnxDWMplQxqjR3d

{"NO": 96.08364573923255, "YES": 150.96271441149983}

0

will-manifold-allow-us-to-set-a-res

287.6394780116541

{"NO": 178, "YES": 41.36052198834587}

Will Manifold allow us to set a "resolve date", separate from the close date, by the end of April?

1651388400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 178, "YES": 35}

0

7.819778274557443

True

play

NO

public

1646693058142

Isaac King

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 208.29399534235367, "YES": 68.79744786954755}

{"creatorFee": 0.2237135310012988, "platformFee": 0.03728558850021647, "liquidityFee": 0.2237135310012988}

{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

0

1651425461255

100.2237135310013

IsaacKing

1646693058142

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

13

1650314646367

0

1

1651336656960

1650307862492

0.06488842990208196

0.05190453896006211

lo3aSYVGDVTJhDpFulji

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05190453896006211

will-i-get-glowfic-tags-from-at-lea-17da6ed79410

51

{"NO": 46.5, "YES": 4.5}

Will I get glowfic tags from at least ten different people during any one day of the coming week?

1647327540000

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

{"NO": 46.5, "YES": 4.5}

0

5.2935879425344154

True

play

NO

public

1646702492003

Alicorn

This market resolves to YES if on at least one of March 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, or 14, ten different people tag glowfic threads in such a way as to make me the next respondent. (Tags in threads where I'm a cameo character, for instance, only count if my character participates in the scene thus advanced, and only the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 49.65977246071512, "YES": 11.619337336956871}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1647369730587

100

Alicorn

1646702492003

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

3

1715658628786

0

1

0.05190453896006211

RDR03FKBh3x8lhbmkcTM

where-will-i-live-in-the-bay-area-s

14.795223826570412

Where will I live in the Bay Area? (Sam's Moving Series)

1652673540000

fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32

cpmm-multi-1

0

6.2774848759187485

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646702943851

Sam

My partner recently accepted a job @ Apple and we're planning to move out the the Bay Area in June. Very unfamiliar with the area so we're looking for recommendations in the comments! Background: early 30s, no kids, decent income stream, partner will be in office 2-3 days a week. Mar 8, 9:37am: Partner's office is in ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661804145473

280

sam

1661804154885

0

https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63

2

0

ANYONE

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1

2

1661804141319

True