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0.667990660057749 | RgTTBhfxpk3ni8lLm9ZN | {"NO": 100.72877173591206, "YES": 2725.9288418761234} | 0 | will-an-aiauthored-short-story-be-p | 3623.211127606548 | Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024? | 1704067200000 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.140749323576778 | True | play | NO | public | 1670222967874 | Bjorn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves \"YES\" if there is a credible claim that a story published in a major science fiction magazine was authored by AI before 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704400348664 | 980 | brp | 1704400349382 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 0 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670223093008}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670222968599}, {"name": "Technical A... | ["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.10647553396853629 | 0.5 | 1703136910450 | 1682073629304 | 0.07 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20925955657004863 | GjsSEPs8zfNbr5yptAGe | {"NO": 950.5417278022175, "YES": 1118.6599975541044} | 0.18358438181187053 | will-a-sequel-to-fallout-new-vegas | 861.6502180175625 | Will a sequel to "Fallout: New Vegas" be announced by the end of 2026? | 1798790400000 | NhrSsYDmZkOg6JhWVlJvKimdXyt2 | cpmm-1 | 0.32548126632717644 | 9.68648048810324 | False | basic | public | 1670227449885 | Nettika | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Fallout: New Vegas\" is a 2010 video game, produced by Obsidian Entertainment and published by Bethesda Softworks. It was announced only a year earlier in 2009.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3687555434883609, "platformFee": 0.3687555434883609, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | nettika | 1714332408213 | 2.2 | 14 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "NhrSsYDmZkOg6JhWVlJvKimdXyt2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670227450113}, {"name": "Fallout", "slug": "fallout", "groupId": "cb217424-c452-461b-8448-85a87bf2df13", "createdTime": 1701828267538}] | ["gaming", "fallout"] | 0.16176804344790435 | 0.5 | 1714332404869 | 1710619289544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.16384045218551438 | ygC12sVft5wNQvk98TKJ | {"NO": 920.953842823713, "YES": 1296.4957185649482} | 0.12218101570092489 | eliezer-yudkowsky-calls-me-promisin | 611.9918477598313 | Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026 | 1798761540000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.851967023761425 | False | basic | public | 1670231667984 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: I'm not actually trying to make this market resolve Yes, unlike some of my other personal markets.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.04448566257612552, "platformFee": 0.04448566257612552, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Alana | 1713916464461 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1670231668714}] | ["ai-alignment"] | 0.5 | 1713916460409 | 1676628274056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3724104012303829 | Ccu05FLJp8Vswdo7GJN9 | {"NO": 114.08091790334531, "YES": 3194.271603256217} | 0 | anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ | 3854.625488717151 | Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023 | 1704095940000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7393127212759079 | True | play | NO | public | 1670232725914 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See Evan Hubinger's post:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Km9sHjHTsBdbgwKyi/monitoring-for-deceptive-alignment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "htt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704098472702 | 470 | Alana | 1704098473031 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1670232726869}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701133669821}] | ["ai-alignment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704091925511 | 1703153625319 | 0.02 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5135137482510989 | nZJVtYkkKrn9MjNhfFqD | {"NO": 1027.4185309443471, "YES": 3261.4216871462945} | 0.2495440197181373 | by-the-end-of-2025-will-there-be-a | 12584.95965400434 | By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? | 1767225540000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0.04478326055818846 | 7.4726357501570195 | False | basic | public | 1670233015074 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "We are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not ", "type": "text", "marks": ... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.12323480963285158} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.238864950724142, "platformFee": 5.5676828385652986, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2045 | SneakySly | 1717764499535 | 2.2 | 0 | 127 | 0 | 70 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670233015790}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670233024938}] | ["technology-default", "gaming"] | 0.19315730563115005 | 0.5 | 1717764496401 | 1717691755433 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5974791553459331 | gfz6RlPLJAzKQyWDjiPO | {"NO": 8.618447189236349, "YES": 3218.8605847032495} | 0 | will-brazil-shut-out-south-korea | 3682.9139675563683 | Will Brazil shut out South Korea? | 1670272804595 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.00644512204007 | True | play | NO | public | 1670234127185 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Brazil are the heavy favorites for the match, but will South Korea atleast be able to score, or will they end the game with 0 goals? Resolves yes if South Korea scores 0 goals by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670272804595 | 370 | Wobbles | 1670272824507 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Brazil vs South Korea 2022-12-05", "slug": "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZORwmYp11aXfELyFvOxg", "createdTime": 1670267454040}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "c... | ["sports-default", "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670272763760 | 1670272821458 | 0.003958572859347716 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5136186770428014 | CyVl91d7uZTSy7a8wsMt | {"NO": 75, "YES": 65.45454545454544} | 1 | will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-d40933e1916a | 5 | Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings at least 6/7 days this week? | 1670821200000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.556275466414026 | True | play | YES | public | 1670234439728 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670860690891 | 70 | Charlie | 1670806590046 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 1670806589890 | 1670234522450 | 0.55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34374640408338686 | C52zUHtkzARmBQb6Xdbv | {"NO": 268.6271584239364, "YES": 334.89010366937185} | 0.2958536848206881 | what-will-the-eastern-section-of-me | 85.10989633062803 | What will the Eastern section of Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop Cost? ($AUD Billions) | 2114341200000 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670236356312 | Electricitypipe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SRL East is an under construction automated metro line in melbourne Australia. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Rail_Loop", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 290 | Electricitypipe | 1683028244572 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1670236356541}, {"name": "Infrastructure", "slug": "infrastructure", "userId": "MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3", "groupId": "uej971gmu0jqm32ubg8I", "createdTime": 1670237016706}] | ["australia", "infrastructure"] | 0.34343434343434337 | 1683028244471 | 1670236498106 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3572814573727188 | YMDIKDDCuz2IQUvB0uQY | {"NO": 46.18534900086115, "YES": 80833.61118927223} | 0 | will-the-boston-celtics-make-the-fi | 143035.02319357757 | Will the Boston Celtics make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | 1685487600000 | VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4635803092021975 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670238607487 | prognostic8r | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685591571409 | 1210 | prognostic8r | 1710222964537 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}] | ["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"] | 0.46 | 1685468358400 | 1685595664026 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23339585505802524 | nrUQHvNTRoZbOpJMFO9l | {"NO": 242.9169552346948, "YES": 8885.019392959004} | 0 | will-the-phoenix-suns-make-the-fina | 27999.673903435763 | Will the Phoenix Suns make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | 1684082833634 | VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4917836896922032 | True | play | NO | public | 1670238800159 | prognostic8r | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684082833634 | 570 | prognostic8r | 1710222979719 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}] | ["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"] | 0.26 | 1684074680135 | 1678867754660 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26117374872445115 | 0Zr3UwcrkRbYUBMlG1BS | {"NO": 206.71694919786523, "YES": 4695.158038931211} | 0 | will-the-memphis-grizzlies-make-the-1c91bffe4a31 | 6282.708544301762 | Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | 1682761802868 | VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5393002140401428 | True | play | NO | public | 1670238831200 | prognostic8r | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Memphis Grizzlies win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682761802868 | 490 | prognostic8r | 1710222935405 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}] | ["sports-default", "nba"] | 0.23 | 1682760641943 | 1682745439947 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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JBSRcYD7C9Y7J9meYoeC | morocco-spain-who-will-win-the-fifa | 225.10932123632568 | Morocco - Spain: Who will win the FIFA World Cup round of 16 game? | 1670345400000 | 0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.762275530387537 | True | play | 109d790e2d33 | public | 1670247755826 | Domenico Stagno | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Morocco - Spain", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 12/06/2022 at 4pm CET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670348881990 | 460 | DomenicoStagno | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0alcFOUMAlzDWBHqOBUnIl6x7glpP3zR4WjbU1=s96-c | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "109d790e2d33", "prob": 0.3092869385468749, "text": "Morocco", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.3424285588142, "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 221.8558380914216, "textFts": "'morocco':1", "contractId": "JBSRcYD7C9Y7J9meYoeC", "createdTime": 1670247755826, "prob... | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670247782967}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670247781133}, {"n... | ["football", "sports-default", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1670345382993 | 1670247836118 | {"109d790e2d33": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.33627279890717116 | sN43JzBVwUA7kxcbwypt | {"NO": 1459.4069680280604, "YES": 3.554815696713888} | 1 | will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17050-a | 3238.9968846509155 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17050 at Dec 6 10pm ET? | 1670384041826 | jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.035867050770971 | True | play | YES | public | 1670292680346 | Gene Fama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670384041826 | 270 | GeneFama | 1670384335835 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670292681043}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1670384035861 | 1670384333608 | 0.5499999999999998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22016614401761142 | 7Ih7fuaKth2XqzqcWM0E | {"NO": 122.40487068971056, "YES": 6292.034159383038} | 0 | will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17060-a | 6214.818420172591 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17060 at Dec 7 10pm ET? | 1670471940000 | jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.732559238251789 | True | play | NO | public | 1670292686055 | Gene Fama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670522595604 | 350 | GeneFama | 1670469125501 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670292686682}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1670469125388 | 1670292857732 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PdtDjDncJfv8j3y1u7xp | deltarune-who-is-the-knight | 1093.707201039831 | Deltarune: Who is the knight? | 2051326740000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670294098656 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves when Deltarune Chapter 7 releases, unless it comes out after Jan 1 2035, in which case it will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's not fairly clear in the game I will also resolve N/A.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1713855268944 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 2 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "23184accd754", "prob": 0.01053467191224125, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.566028289680052, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.164006626958326, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PdtDjDncJfv8j3y1u7xp", "createdTime": 1670294099080, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9894653280... | 4 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1670294098947}, {"name": "Deltarune", "slug": "deltarune", "userId": "XquaG2KfrBeRJaV23RQigKazTNf2", "groupId": "okoNikC5JTpLks0scYVE", "createdTime": 1682101405046}] | ["culture-default", "deltarune"] | 0.09836271499193337 | 1713855268944 | 1712900830258 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7906926913515449 | Q9AYUdH1Reuj9FpbEwvr | {"NO": 126.8216773858995, "YES": 1531.047769816802} | 0.23833677986961624 | will-gregg-berhalter-be-coach-of-th | 11693.343388450463 | Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup? | 1798771440000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.66280599950073 | False | basic | public | 1670294697814 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Gregg (3G) Berhalter is generally accepted to be the head coach of the USMNT on their first game of the 2026 World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.23411945734929593, "month": -0.5990288265709123} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.88157392639097, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719947992136 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 40 | 4 | 11 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670294708217}, {"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "zB7SeMTUK4R0jMRihlDP", "createdTime": 1670294698006}, {"name": "2026 FIFA Wor... | ["us-soccer", "soccer", "2026-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.12410264953803085 | 0.5 | 1719947989022 | 1718271993135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6201528503081993 | P82Vjlv20P2Yjn8Kh4yc | {"NO": 2806.930034922036, "YES": 509.1889265882574} | 0.9 | will-justin-sun-founder-of-tron-be | 3461.2197532125588 | Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 1893430800000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.90313690574035 | False | basic | public | 1670296141835 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Justin Sun", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Sun", "class": null, "ta... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.232900141925368} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.151542603509338, "platformFee": 0.11670372516338934, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1718659750388 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1673051967641}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1673051964321}, {... | ["scandal-markets", "law-order", "crypto-speculation", "cryptochargemarkets"] | 0.10095688463182277 | 0.5 | 1718659747172 | 1679539569536 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35839068648188144 | w7BVXejunIHlMR0kgn69 | {"NO": 330.36185094237726, "YES": 1988.612069678267} | 0 | will-musks-neuralink-be-charged-pen | 4892.72499502468 | Will Musk’s Neuralink be charged penalties for violations of the Animal Welfare Act? | 1712681798912 | uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7758403162206253 | True | play | NO | public | 1670296880906 | Nico | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A USDA investigation is ongoing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/0... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08491551849235031} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712681798912 | 750 | NicoDelon | 1712681824120 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy"}, {"name": "Brain–computer interface", "slug": "bra... | ["science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "animal-welfare", "braincomputer-interface"] | 0.5 | 1710994978982 | 1712681823367 | False | 0.08 | uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4558111466566935 | ROw8dpgbUJsJ9sQWTSCE | {"NO": 881.8250102624323, "YES": 1046.9663361603602} | 0.4136549675483723 | will-someone-fail-to-hydrateeat-dyi | 986.4576675963405 | Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years? | 1985918400000 | utQ1XqqCoUNMGtNE8EMN6hoJx1d2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.822268066791468 | False | basic | public | 1670298496844 | Grant Thompson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOJqhZKJPOo.png?alt=media&token=17ff5b30-7b0f-4913-8603-82bf414ce4d0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.02942165832360988, "month": 0.029421658323609767} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.669763901173288, "platformFee": 1.6506683488996432, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GrantThompson | 1719821313580 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0IsbBUL_f7m6JhGEEnq_ciaH0KfBt_KRRK5MKW8g=s96-c | 16 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "utQ1XqqCoUNMGtNE8EMN6hoJx1d2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1670298497263}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1719821310486 | 1671166690760 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6868045816914154 | Ao4hwWZ5GNYA5PE5t4l2 | {"NO": 783.9829377737202, "YES": 65.59163566873633} | 1 | democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-f7d1323b7e36 | 790.3837130251286 | Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only) | 1670382000000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1316606542493157 | True | play | YES | public | 1670298996066 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670383720605 | 230 | Gamble_market | 1670381999648 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1670298996362}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime"... | ["whale-watching", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670381999525 | 1670299057616 | 0.9632495320575698 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5037974498864018 | fJWDNkhFN96chL5Wna1D | {"NO": 35.88419287649753, "YES": 2283.693103437868} | 0 | will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-d9f7a646600b | 3341.3065148803184 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 day) | 1670382000000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7293095246084347 | True | play | NO | public | 1670299061876 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670383762261 | 450 | Gamble_market | 1670381964914 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670299062183}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime":... | ["selfresolving", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670381964748 | 1670364354882 | 0.015703211606702957 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7465809727268665 | Xbah2RBOksHj7733VCtm | {"NO": 3216.7127590089012, "YES": 249.10742820385923} | 1 | will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-8d9c53b463a6 | 3208.787423163254 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 day) | 1670468400000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.372774262376398 | True | play | YES | public | 1670299089077 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670468603064 | 550 | Gamble_market | 1670466867576 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670299089614}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime":... | ["selfresolving", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670466867406 | 1670299180892 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5347397669843951 | URzOlvhKOkbVs40WCCp6 | {"NO": 408.1669173140783, "YES": 239.4736842105263} | 0.6620439286936167 | what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-3635adf5cc77 | 145 | What will be the final net IRR for Genstar Capital XI? (X100) | 2240639940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670299207692 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 310 | CarsonGale | 1683616096362 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161750}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"... | ["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1683616095225 | 1670299309586 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.33996583637047345 | xN6voW6z7Uu5SoUANfbh | {"NO": 404.25934457535055, "YES": 4711.824906006279} | 0 | will-destiny-reach-365m-total-views | 14275.47134373607 | Will Destiny reach 365M total views by the end of December? | 1672531140000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6819838445856132 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670299586977 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny reaches 365 million total views by the end of the year then this market resolves to yes. Current predictions are here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/futureprojections", "type": "text", "marks"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672545110168 | 1070 | Wobbles | 1710218628307 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 46 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672518692789 | 1672114891764 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.10842470687304984 | WHxMqljqxQ2khpBtjfnY | {"NO": 664.9991614525104, "YES": 2170.3247457944476} | 0 | will-destiny-be-unbanned-from-twitt-c59d7e8714c3 | 6563.71241520328 | Will Destiny be unbanned from Twitter in the next week? | 1670889540000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.25507696450663 | True | play | NO | public | 1670300248692 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Destiny is unbanned on twitter by December 12th at 6pm cst", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670954063074 | 790 | Wobbles | 1670888758906 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 39 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670300249399}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670888758741 | 1670300373486 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.08433601673864205 | EZW6D8UYPr9WV5yrq0Yz | {"NO": 212.86129098303036, "YES": 1801.9990682444654} | 0 | will-brazil-score-11-or-more-goals | 9614.042775873402 | Will Brazil score 11 or more goals during the entire World Cup? | 1670693846755 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.625468713362604 | True | play | NO | public | 1670301252217 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Brazil's total goals scored during the 2022 World Cup is 11 or more. Own goals, and shoot-out goals do not count. Brazil has scored 7 goals at time of market creation. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670693846755 | 450 | Wobbles | 1670693820500 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-09", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZgsJJPP", "createdTime": 1670503603283}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime":... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "football", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1670693820380 | 1670622131994 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5145384739294078 | BO3UXKFmcV7gdjWNHyHH | {"NO": 69.64307677904527, "YES": 69.64307677904529} | 0.5145384739294078 | kpaul-industrial | 632.0872497602081 | KPaul Industrial | 1672442005354 | FqwoGbts3pWhjMHhatwYMAETZ9F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.564267022596101 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670302338944 | Emma Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672442005354 | 70 | EmmaMiller | 1710208088710 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6f7R1nEWXq8y1MTKrJNB4WtadDxqEowt60BveI=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}] | ["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"] | 0.5 | 1670302846680 | 1670302446674 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5054904282430867 | hB7JEgCi3h9fYLKW0iBm | {"NO": 240.42205947206645, "YES": 17064.18393472445} | 0 | will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-have-a-9417fe5850fd | 74892.79556055214 | Will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war in 2023? | 1704027540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6998413665787919 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670303972302 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704085590494 | 2330 | BTE | 1704085592100 | 0 | 8 | 202 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1670303972610}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1695244682891}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-year... | ["global-macro", "wars", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703516815187 | 1697385711379 | 0.01 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21500554308747463 | rwQE4R6g4gCQP5iJeiz6 | {"NO": 790.6045192196287, "YES": 4188.302472508866} | 0 | will-an-ai-win-advent-of-code-2023 | 15829.78750435453 | Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2023) | 1703570340000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0.17604796585632704 | 0.5840094063849244 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670304539584 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705073016201 | 1160 | Gigacasting | 1705073016631 | 2.2 | 1 | 76 | 0 | 4 | 32 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304539877}, {"name": "Advent of Code", "slug": "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e", "groupId": "48609770-257d-4f66-b641-5d3c09cf6990", "createdTime": 1701467596914}] | ["ai", "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e"] | 0.18728142360699016 | 0.5 | 1703528948714 | 1701448008486 | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5177927716091733 | zYRdlKl6F9ftk1lhz0lO | {"NO": 637.4225182442477, "YES": 1396.3300801422406} | 0.32894317134446777 | will-an-ai-win-advent-of-code-2025 | 2593.6314906883094 | Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2025) | 1766728740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.741306056688966 | False | basic | public | 1670304563251 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003223473278666178} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.532249213378745, "platformFee": 0.6390815270493311, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1718965382291 | 0.3 | 1 | 46 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304563547}, {"name": "Advent of Code", "slug": "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e", "groupId": "48609770-257d-4f66-b641-5d3c09cf6990", "createdTime": 1701467614754}] | ["ai", "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e"] | 0.1127381713241011 | 0.5 | 1718965379234 | 1677291949459 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43444015810786796 | GofaRGRk5CxxuOPqtP1m | {"NO": 876.9846608717239, "YES": 119.01547711224634} | 0.8498567612327357 | ai-leaderboard-ranking-aoc-2023 | 749.4355464242775 | AI Leaderboard Ranking: AoC 2023 | 1703570340000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670304636349 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 390 | Gigacasting | 1713886151535 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 35 | 6 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304636617}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511338540}] | ["ai", "ancient-markets"] | 0.34948500216800943 | 1698271698213 | 1713886151005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6621836540747777 | Xgf196POoau39qBAj4Ye | {"NO": 1288.1911154209968, "YES": 2383.400746138124} | 0.5144337869562453 | will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-abb4e8b3c38a | 57156.1089592045 | Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027? | 1798761540000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 2.0451063891205176e-15 | 4.765808396036459 | False | basic | public | 1670334158549 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2027, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01657851240244884} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.03955964444149, "platformFee": 9.68582331581174, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1960 | jack | 1719147890028 | 0.9 | 3 | 69 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670334158806}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.13984653918962572 | 0.5 | 1719147886984 | 1691556542873 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7480797902046099 | oz3XH73zP2fcn03XJdT4 | {"NO": 1105.658180723614, "YES": 2047.1508848616527} | 0.6159490483952893 | will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-f9788f277f2e | 139912.02814193713 | Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030? | 1893455940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.971921624860273 | False | basic | public | 1670334237679 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2030, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0408119313272538, "month": -0.07271341930598085} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 198.89339683641876, "platformFee": 122.56535154527705, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1775 | jack | 1720062436865 | 1.7 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670334237917}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908028}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"] | 0.1429949023094092 | 0.5 | 1720062433658 | 1688081979781 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08431912799136522 | iw7rsJnGnLiyyqvgD8oh | {"NO": 804.2762798238551, "YES": 6283.485998250196} | 0 | will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of | 9071.825835588817 | Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023? | 1704038340000 | IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.407107019211617 | True | play | NO | public | 1670335189619 | morewings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2023-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704138133017 | 985 | morewings | 1704138133468 | 0 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1670335228039}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1670335226039}, {"name": "Cryptocurre... | ["sbf", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "crime", "death-markets", "sbf-trial", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703021578520 | 1696817368809 | 0.01 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10872102142700205 | 5OnTru6dBYh03rKy0z1Q | {"NO": 825.0411820425444, "YES": 3910.0514729073584} | 0.025093203622522767 | will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of-968c69b0844d | 6862.356584939196 | Will SBF be dead before the end of 2024? | 1735660740000 | IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.376254732075086 | False | basic | public | 1670335271102 | morewings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2024-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -0.05490679637747718, "month": -0.05490679637747718} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.870738233583618, "platformFee": 0.3290242621553902, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | morewings | 1720133048290 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 30 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1670335298264}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1670335296394... | ["crime", "sbf", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx", "death-markets", "sbf-trial"] | 0.5 | 1720133045181 | 1687004920515 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1272496296360508 | lmVg2Qz7enZAz1ahhc56 | {"NO": 931.1533365206506, "YES": 1357.8106804246415} | 0.0908992851314747 | will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of-28a1a3c79bb2 | 2542.3413298388614 | Will SBF be dead before the end of 2025? | 1767196740000 | IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.028021827120124 | False | basic | public | 1670335344244 | morewings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2025-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1958679227403048, "platformFee": 0.1958679227403048, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | morewings | 1715148379293 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1670335367823}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1670335366432}, {"name": "Cryptocurre... | ["ftx", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "crime", "death-markets"] | 0.5 | 1715148376057 | 1670632571439 |
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