p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.667990660057749
RgTTBhfxpk3ni8lLm9ZN
{"NO": 100.72877173591206, "YES": 2725.9288418761234}
0
will-an-aiauthored-short-story-be-p
3623.211127606548
Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024?
1704067200000
lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33
cpmm-1
0
1.140749323576778
True
play
NO
public
1670222967874
Bjorn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves \"YES\" if there is a credible claim that a story published in a major science fiction magazine was authored by AI before 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704400348664
980
brp
1704400349382
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c
0
52
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a52-d223503cc07b
22
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670223093008}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670222968599}, {"name": "Technical A...
["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.10647553396853629
0.5
1703136910450
1682073629304
0.07
lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33
0.20925955657004863
GjsSEPs8zfNbr5yptAGe
{"NO": 950.5417278022175, "YES": 1118.6599975541044}
0.18358438181187053
will-a-sequel-to-fallout-new-vegas
861.6502180175625
Will a sequel to "Fallout: New Vegas" be announced by the end of 2026?
1798790400000
NhrSsYDmZkOg6JhWVlJvKimdXyt2
cpmm-1
0.32548126632717644
9.68648048810324
False
basic
public
1670227449885
Nettika
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Fallout: New Vegas\" is a 2010 video game, produced by Obsidian Entertainment and published by Bethesda Softworks. It was announced only a year earlier in 2009.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.3687555434883609, "platformFee": 0.3687555434883609, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
nettika
1714332408213
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…f76-d85a784fa06b
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…805-8f8a2426bde6
3
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "NhrSsYDmZkOg6JhWVlJvKimdXyt2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670227450113}, {"name": "Fallout", "slug": "fallout", "groupId": "cb217424-c452-461b-8448-85a87bf2df13", "createdTime": 1701828267538}]
["gaming", "fallout"]
0.16176804344790435
0.5
1714332404869
1710619289544
0.4691039338737421
wQsr8m0MsCb0V3suPMmv
{"NO": 104.1928445163236, "YES": 164.4257375585732}
0
an-ai-forecaster-calls-me-wellcalib
73.60314036580482
An AI forecaster calls me “well-calibrated” before the end of 2023
1704067140000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
2.3222029224503986
True
play
NO
public
1670231589329
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704072637966
130
Alana
1704072638222
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…df2-fc82ae4e6d6f
5
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737199104}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131660708}]
["ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1702696185429
1670329586150
0.36
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
0.16384045218551438
ygC12sVft5wNQvk98TKJ
{"NO": 920.953842823713, "YES": 1296.4957185649482}
0.12218101570092489
eliezer-yudkowsky-calls-me-promisin
611.9918477598313
Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026
1798761540000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
9.851967023761425
False
basic
public
1670231667984
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: I'm not actually trying to make this market resolve Yes, unlike some of my other personal markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.04448566257612552, "platformFee": 0.04448566257612552, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Alana
1713916464461
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
2
22
0
https://firebasestorage.…6c8-696e7622f5a4
20
[{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1670231668714}]
["ai-alignment"]
0.5
1713916460409
1676628274056
0.3724104012303829
Ccu05FLJp8Vswdo7GJN9
{"NO": 114.08091790334531, "YES": 3194.271603256217}
0
anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ
3854.625488717151
Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023
1704095940000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
1.7393127212759079
True
play
NO
public
1670232725914
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See Evan Hubinger's post:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Km9sHjHTsBdbgwKyi/monitoring-for-deceptive-alignment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "htt...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704098472702
470
Alana
1704098473031
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
24
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…396-8875182a937e
8
[{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1670232726869}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701133669821}]
["ai-alignment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1704091925511
1703153625319
0.02
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
0.5135137482510989
nZJVtYkkKrn9MjNhfFqD
{"NO": 1027.4185309443471, "YES": 3261.4216871462945}
0.2495440197181373
by-the-end-of-2025-will-there-be-a
12584.95965400434
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
1767225540000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0.04478326055818846
7.4726357501570195
False
basic
public
1670233015074
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "We are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not ", "type": "text", "marks": ...
BINARY
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.12323480963285158}
0
{"creatorFee": 28.238864950724142, "platformFee": 5.5676828385652986, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2045
SneakySly
1717764499535
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
0
127
0
https://firebasestorage.…742-f52305f2282b
70
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670233015790}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670233024938}]
["technology-default", "gaming"]
0.19315730563115005
0.5
1717764496401
1717691755433
0.5974791553459331
gfz6RlPLJAzKQyWDjiPO
{"NO": 8.618447189236349, "YES": 3218.8605847032495}
0
will-brazil-shut-out-south-korea
3682.9139675563683
Will Brazil shut out South Korea?
1670272804595
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
4.00644512204007
True
play
NO
public
1670234127185
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Brazil are the heavy favorites for the match, but will South Korea atleast be able to score, or will they end the game with 0 goals? Resolves yes if South Korea scores 0 goals by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670272804595
370
Wobbles
1670272824507
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
1
19
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…eaf-7d87de2e4a21
14
[{"name": "Brazil vs South Korea 2022-12-05", "slug": "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZORwmYp11aXfELyFvOxg", "createdTime": 1670267454040}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "c...
["sports-default", "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670272763760
1670272821458
0.003958572859347716
0.5136186770428014
CyVl91d7uZTSy7a8wsMt
{"NO": 75, "YES": 65.45454545454544}
1
will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-d40933e1916a
5
Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings at least 6/7 days this week?
1670821200000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.556275466414026
True
play
YES
public
1670234439728
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670860690891
70
Charlie
1670806590046
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
1
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…989-ca77a0b7b29b
3
0.5
1670806589890
1670234522450
0.55
0.34374640408338686
C52zUHtkzARmBQb6Xdbv
{"NO": 268.6271584239364, "YES": 334.89010366937185}
0.2958536848206881
what-will-the-eastern-section-of-me
85.10989633062803
What will the Eastern section of Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop Cost? ($AUD Billions)
2114341200000
MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670236356312
Electricitypipe
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SRL East is an under construction automated metro line in melbourne Australia. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Rail_Loop", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
290
Electricitypipe
1683028244572
0
https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…54b-3f5ba00629dc
3
[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1670236356541}, {"name": "Infrastructure", "slug": "infrastructure", "userId": "MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3", "groupId": "uej971gmu0jqm32ubg8I", "createdTime": 1670237016706}]
["australia", "infrastructure"]
0.34343434343434337
1683028244471
1670236498106
0.3572814573727188
YMDIKDDCuz2IQUvB0uQY
{"NO": 46.18534900086115, "YES": 80833.61118927223}
0
will-the-boston-celtics-make-the-fi
143035.02319357757
Will the Boston Celtics make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1685487600000
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
0.4635803092021975
True
basic
NO
public
1670238607487
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1685591571409
1210
prognostic8r
1710222964537
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
0
61
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…126-f682fa5f390f
9
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]
0.46
1685468358400
1685595664026
False
0
0.23339585505802524
nrUQHvNTRoZbOpJMFO9l
{"NO": 242.9169552346948, "YES": 8885.019392959004}
0
will-the-phoenix-suns-make-the-fina
27999.673903435763
Will the Phoenix Suns make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1684082833634
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
1.4917836896922032
True
play
NO
public
1670238800159
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684082833634
570
prognostic8r
1710222979719
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
28
0
https://firebasestorage.…797-5a134e6d3749
19
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]
0.26
1684074680135
1678867754660
False
0.01
0.26117374872445115
0Zr3UwcrkRbYUBMlG1BS
{"NO": 206.71694919786523, "YES": 4695.158038931211}
0
will-the-memphis-grizzlies-make-the-1c91bffe4a31
6282.708544301762
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1682761802868
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
1.5393002140401428
True
play
NO
public
1670238831200
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Memphis Grizzlies win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1682761802868
490
prognostic8r
1710222935405
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…e1c-6fe23a98b5ea
11
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "nba"]
0.23
1682760641943
1682745439947
0.02
0.33470516465756156
zMn3jPsvG1MqJNSzjqcB
{"NO": 183.91642666836452, "YES": 4982.567782645866}
0
will-the-milwaukee-bucks-make-the-f
9730.632499420055
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1682572189345
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
1.3271248615391733
True
play
NO
public
1670238862240
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Milwaukee Bucks win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1682572189345
590
prognostic8r
1710222992821
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
3
29
0
https://firebasestorage.…b32-b012c10e6a06
18
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]
0.17
1682572176706
1682570504846
False
0.02
0.20661059821281527
83hh8sbz6CzU9CZvZrM5
{"NO": 201.9945605978329, "YES": 7987.369920523664}
0
will-the-philadelphia-76ers-make-th-18d4fb9b103a
17238.168583772185
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1684160342108
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
1.9621855602147837
True
play
NO
public
1670238893398
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Philadelphia 76ers win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"ty...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684160342108
470
prognostic8r
1710222940697
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
23
0
https://firebasestorage.…258-831a2190fe4e
7
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]
0.13
1684144044587
1670238971680
False
0.01
0.177184234268656
tditUf6BhjpDRYblEOe6
{"NO": 257.60537131785964, "YES": 101014.38667041021}
0
will-the-golden-state-warriors-make-801f5f4f74e0
132597.88179800488
Will the Golden State Warriors make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1684082637655
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
-0.36263943461593495
True
play
NO
public
1670239097299
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684082637655
810
prognostic8r
1710222985647
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
40
0
https://firebasestorage.…f9e-c5a687d0fe71
7
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]
0.13
1684048650879
1684042870836
False
0
0.7076840687354428
dchxiQkTEn0BRdsz3kKf
{"NO": 14315.952380042898, "YES": 83.87083950517808}
1
will-the-denver-nuggets-make-the-fi
48759.62887406744
Will the Denver Nuggets make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1684925822654
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
1.9545890812940954
True
play
YES
public
1670239128555
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Denver Nuggets win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684925822654
650
prognostic8r
1710222970719
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
0
32
0
https://firebasestorage.…34e-2cf1f409aed9
12
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "nba"]
0.13
1684925814253
1684878274733
1
0.09104851208925065
zDa6klhG9DSaB2oyNG8P
{"NO": 151.67969379845087, "YES": 11247.62672198041}
0
will-the-new-orleans-pelicans-make-04c293a8d3d2
12411.037513891893
Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1681383899776
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
4.2479827543089375
True
play
NO
public
1670239159891
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the New Orleans Pelicans win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681383899776
230
prognostic8r
1710222991993
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
10
0
https://firebasestorage.…fb7-168e453ab7f7
9
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "nba"]
0.1
1681361707659
1670239245455
0
0.9138610244881359
Nwl8UgIDTdBjtQpRwMsq
{"NO": 42949.245501257996, "YES": 34.731488699770125}
1
will-the-miami-heat-make-the-finals
64164.99318933523
Will the Miami Heat make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
1685487600000
VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1670239191421
prognostic8r
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami Heat win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight's forecast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "li...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1685591562547
710
prognostic8r
1710222955796
0
https://firebasestorage.…9e3-31dcacb243b6
0
37
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d0a-af6a8bd3d532
5
[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]
["sports-default", "nba"]
0.07
1685478927431
1685601366343
1
0.7803304928369307
YeeweBxhSdG1c65txKLQ
{"NO": 20906.645677273667, "YES": 639.463130658013}
1
will-finland-join-nato-by-the-15th
34700.744790218734
Will Finland join NATO by the 15th of April?
1680624167730
4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2
cpmm-1
0
0.6675425786790887
True
basic
YES
public
1670241053913
humblestumble
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES IF Finland joins NATO before the 15th of April And NO if it doesn't.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Finland NATO", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FXEQnm...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680624167730
1730
humblestumble
1680620529565
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhumblestumble%2Fbkinag6pWF.14?alt=media&token=302ce71c-98fc-4c47-a784-79fac2888a82
0
87
0
https://firebasestorage.…780-77e7e5566984
21
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1670245656027}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670241054559}, {"name": "N...
["politics-default", "world-default", "nato"]
0.5
1680620528348
1680614373972
0.99
0.3847376383097458
EBHaovYnTdy4W5MX3gXn
{"NO": 100.79542336781086, "YES": 2274.282152295785}
0
will-the-subreddit-rdestiny-have-17
3240.55032045373
Will the subreddit r/Destiny have 173k members by the end of the year?
1672559940000
9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13
cpmm-1
0
1.86127282282435
True
play
NO
public
1670244165061
johnleoks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has 170k as of 12/5/22.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Dest...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672560190785
430
johnleoks
1710218533106
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c
22
0
https://firebasestorage.…51a-9219c8c46978
20
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1672553321161
1670244226860
0.03
wgktU4sykZ3FbgvmdLn1
japan-croatia-who-will-win-the-fifa
2763.9682482306976
Japan - Croatia: Who will win the FIFA World Cup round of 16 game?
1670262304064
0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.634325789371658
True
play
143615b52544
public
1670247373674
Domenico Stagno
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Japan - Croatia ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 FIFA World Cup ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 12/05/2022 at 4pm CET ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670262304064
540
DomenicoStagno
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0alcFOUMAlzDWBHqOBUnIl6x7glpP3zR4WjbU1=s96-c
14
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "50f5d456bae4", "prob": 0.059380770467106034, "text": "Japan", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.95185556327209, "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 141.8015868871079, "textFts": "'japan':1", "contractId": "wgktU4sykZ3FbgvmdLn1", "createdTime": 1670247373674, "probCh...
https://firebasestorage.…802-b39dd47a7c3d
15
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670247588369}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670247584095}, {"n...
["sports-default", "football", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
1670262296201
1670247472027
{"143615b52544": 100}
True
VQW1V39ZbdIXPJQCZTOD
brazil-south-korea-who-will-win-the
2210.765562027891
Brazil - South Korea: Who will win the FIFA World Cup round of 16 game?
1670281462807
0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.6365370472559775
True
play
d85148ad9c9f
public
1670247512448
Domenico Stagno
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brazil - South Korea", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 12/05/2022 at 8pm CET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670281462807
500
DomenicoStagno
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0alcFOUMAlzDWBHqOBUnIl6x7glpP3zR4WjbU1=s96-c
13
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "d85148ad9c9f", "prob": 0.9934513095580348, "text": "Brazil", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 54.84782836303477, "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.3615491226473326, "textFts": "'brazil':1", "contractId": "VQW1V39ZbdIXPJQCZTOD", "createdTime": 1670247512448, "prob...
https://firebasestorage.…91c-4b6832c5a798
14
[{"name": "Brazil vs South Korea 2022-12-05", "slug": "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZORwmYp11aXfELyFvOxg", "createdTime": 1670267454045}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTi...
["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "football", "soccer", "brazil-vs-south-korea-20221205"]
1670279438702
1670247585115
{"d85148ad9c9f": 100}
True
JBSRcYD7C9Y7J9meYoeC
morocco-spain-who-will-win-the-fifa
225.10932123632568
Morocco - Spain: Who will win the FIFA World Cup round of 16 game?
1670345400000
0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.762275530387537
True
play
109d790e2d33
public
1670247755826
Domenico Stagno
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Morocco - Spain", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 12/06/2022 at 4pm CET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670348881990
460
DomenicoStagno
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0alcFOUMAlzDWBHqOBUnIl6x7glpP3zR4WjbU1=s96-c
12
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "109d790e2d33", "prob": 0.3092869385468749, "text": "Morocco", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 99.3424285588142, "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 221.8558380914216, "textFts": "'morocco':1", "contractId": "JBSRcYD7C9Y7J9meYoeC", "createdTime": 1670247755826, "prob...
1
https://firebasestorage.…d7f-b2e12ebe778c
13
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670247782967}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670247781133}, {"n...
["football", "sports-default", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
1670345382993
1670247836118
{"109d790e2d33": 100}
True
LxZeod818aAhy8yCTJF8
portugal-switzerland-who-will-win-t
2190.003528367903
Portugal - Switzerland: Who will win the FIFA World Cup round of 16 game?
1670359800000
0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.642693312536283
True
play
43a628fbbb01
public
1670247892202
Domenico Stagno
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Portugal - Switzerland", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 12/06/2022 at 8pm CET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670373471839
500
DomenicoStagno
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0alcFOUMAlzDWBHqOBUnIl6x7glpP3zR4WjbU1=s96-c
13
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "43a628fbbb01", "prob": 0.987820239080829, "text": "Portugal", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.58770671002007, "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9196616948065504, "textFts": "'portug':1", "contractId": "LxZeod818aAhy8yCTJF8", "createdTime": 1670247892202, "pro...
1
https://firebasestorage.…312-e68348fa949b
14
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670247920379}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "0UVtX3gjOPh4Gz7P2eErycRdGQ02", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16702479145...
["football", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]
1670359236244
1670247970041
{"43a628fbbb01": 100}
True
0.7717305488961693
6ZJtpnA8nla9A1A9j9iJ
{"NO": 253.43283582089555, "YES": 92.95706931658086}
1
will-slack-be-used-more-than-whatsa
155
Will Slack be used more than Whatsapp for Dutch EA community builders communication/coordination in January 2023?
1675292340000
Prb8Fse9tsMNX0BEeHZnBCC2FRb2
cpmm-1
0
3.6303929705928315
True
play
YES
public
1670249938196
Jelle
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if there are messages sent on the new Dutch CB Slack than the EA NL uni chapters and uni group initiators Whatsapp chats combined during January 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Green Whatsapp logo bur...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675685932884
130
Jelle
1675288452452
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwUhI_4mRhd6sVUslSDmmP736cSw0YVa3s8uhRQ=s96-c
1
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-6cfe9650266c
6
[{"name": "Effective Altruism Netherlands", "slug": "effective-altruism-netherlands", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "TASuC3evengU2jzvYc2J", "createdTime": 1670250003322}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Prb8Fse9tsMNX0BEeHZnBCC2FRb2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 167...
["effective-altruism", "fun", "effective-altruism-netherlands", "technology-default"]
0.5
1675288452353
1670250055831
0.9
0.41187945009153015
kOFqbOiqMqVIjlde8KSm
{"NO": 120.52600351214757, "YES": 303.53539210880655}
0
will-raphael-warnock-win-fayette-co
149
Will Raphael Warnock win Fayette County, Georgia in the December 6, 2022 runoff?
1670371200000
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
1.9510095169589938
True
play
NO
public
1670254580490
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670386356682
180
BRTD
1670286411639
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…60d-ee77397894d1
6
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670254581123}, {"name": "2022 Georgia Runoffs", "slug": "2022-georgia-runoffs", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "TdE6khkHIRpYbjH6kYp7", "createdTime": 1670370...
["us-politics", "2022-georgia-runoffs"]
0.5
1670286411506
1670254629482
0.21757849461957002
0.5
AaF6yKblGG52fM2pRAuN
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
will-logan-finish-hotline-miami-by
0
Will Logan finish Hotline Miami by 12/16?
1670255569602
uAqDGirnGXXSX3UhruN3lzkSIad2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670255483550
Logan Woerner
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "howlongtobeat.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://howlongtobeat.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "'s estimated Main+Extra time is 7.5 hours.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670857483526
50
LoganWoerner
1670255629003
0
https://firebasestorage.…7c4-bd5c6501c6bf
0
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…3e7-0b8ce56c2f6e
2
[{"name": "Lunchle 2", "slug": "lunchle-2", "userId": "uAqDGirnGXXSX3UhruN3lzkSIad2", "groupId": "4RlYuO6Zu7ZbjfulJxTy", "createdTime": 1670255483753}]
["lunchle-2"]
0.5
1670255623230
0.5
0.16975536664014457
0xFWaajegIWLm5vD8UkP
{"NO": 322.51999771754856, "YES": 7275.650684503901}
0
will-france-v-england-be-decided-by
8356.1823340379
Will France v England be decided by a penalty shootout at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1670709600000
rU1IPes55iTVrUuAMPGgaAhqnB43
cpmm-1
0
1.6073880712984394
True
play
NO
public
1670257817571
Stan Pinsent
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France and England will face each other in a quarter-final on 10 Dec 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the game is decided by a penalty shootout I will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}, {...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670753417212
610
StanPinsent
1670706151481
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1S_JjPM8WFt7pHyN-3VTblxQ1IGtQopo0hl0vOhQ=s96-c
32
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d55-d0df5c4b32ea
27
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "rU1IPes55iTVrUuAMPGgaAhqnB43", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670257818291}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16707352115...
["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670706151331
1670645788946
0.01
0.18745229384416112
CmjJK2I6JatzcYtndM1N
{"NO": 274.828959225879, "YES": 1221.132067767061}
0
will-the-taliban-represent-afghanis
935.0190422746705
Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before the end of 2023?
1704085793994
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
cpmm-1
0
1.75233482424083
True
play
NO
public
1670258887409
cshunter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UN Credentials Committee approves each member's representation. In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dec 2021 the committee voted to defer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-united...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704085793994
380
cash
1704085794623
0
https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…243-a356d81ebff3
13
[{"name": "Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1670258887661}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1670258904839}, {"name": "Pol...
["middle-east", "world-default", "politics-default", "geopolitics", "asia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703636984429
1671074989915
0.05
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
0.4476643726251175
7KHWId01AFkfDTJAiG5W
{"NO": 189.08075822296036, "YES": 250.0373589721948}
0.3800000000000003
will-an-open-convert-from-catholici
129.6093062574951
Will an open convert from Catholicism to Protestantism be elected as a Democrat to the US House, Senate or as a Governor on or before the 2024 general election?
1730700000000
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670260902644
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
215
BRTD
1689942734540
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…19a-c1d20fdd0324
5
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670260903390}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1689942734390
1670260945403
0.5
G6qFNx5Da1gguCwEQtRl
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
will-a-quarterfinals-game-be-decide
0
Will a quarter-finals game be decided via penalty shoot-out at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1670262647029
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670262604515
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if one of the four games of the quarter-finals is tied and has to be decided via penalty shoot-out.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670262647029
50
egroj
1670262685997
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…2be-d87c0404b6d5
2
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670262605202}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670262683401
0.5
0.2848667418141513
srOEwtrFmRCPUiyIsqnh
{"NO": 181.53141662059522, "YES": 2974.26243019226}
0
will-there-be-a-fifth-covid-wave-in
4570.928102760912
Will there be a fifth Covid wave in the US?
1672559940000
VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1
cpmm-1
0
1.586664739877997
True
play
NO
public
1670262710382
Johnny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "source data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+cases+us", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+cases+us", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672562092177
430
TheSkeward
1710206846499
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c
22
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…82e-71bc554a92e9
21
[{"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]
["global-macro", "covid-d7a9361d772d"]
0.5
1672558473683
1672566466996
0.02
0.3370340370232427
sf5y4TswIrvMbTyjwPlN
{"NO": 2736.4805280864857, "YES": 7.364071414426462}
1
2022-world-cup-will-morocco-reach-t
7011.993025751641
2022 World Cup: Will Morocco reach the Semifinals?
1670691528520
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
4.093885132602334
True
play
YES
public
1670263523485
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670691528520
530
Jenny
1670691493454
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
28
0
https://firebasestorage.…908-f0f331a6181b
25
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670263523903}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670263518358}, {"n...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "sports-default"]
0.5
1670691493342
1670263633715
0.99
0.14370606431611402
piGOxp8cjcbrszE5HX3u
{"NO": 144.84086544168235, "YES": 3802.2541542030235}
0
2022-world-cup-will-switzerland-rea-54b636880d3d
4947.659557172918
2022 World Cup: Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals?
1670361147585
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.6834183275421157
True
play
NO
public
1670263559960
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670361147585
270
Jenny
1670361027440
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…a27-8f66e1729300
13
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670263560402}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16702635496...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "football"]
0.5
1670361027171
1670360428404
0.006352352707238378
0.3556599960802378
VjTJC1weyX9cfSaQpyFx
{"NO": 186.29758294755754, "YES": 2322.1813227532584}
0
will-i-will-be-too-sick-to-attend-a
2229.906722455936
Will I will be too sick to attend any of the events I plan to in the next two weeks?
1671429242023
9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2
cpmm-1
0
1.2735719892273045
True
play
NO
public
1670263852139
Aella ​
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I got a viral cold/respiratory infection on November 18th. Bad symptoms (sore throat, dry cough, plugged ears) lasted about a week, and I've had a lingering cough since then that's been getting milder with time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671429242023
470
Aella
1671427093857
0
https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…870-481c60c0b7c4
20
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1670263852884}]
["medicine"]
0.5
1671427093700
1671061391624
0.04
0.6246360813410419
eCYSPoJWmnnrCF9D1UqM
{"NO": 132.2998575479388, "YES": 123.83871761763712}
0.6400000000000001
will-angela-davis-feature-in-anothe
129.789645416411
Will Angela Davis Feature in another Documentary about Incarceration by 2024?
1735689540000
dUWRbLB5WWTk9mnr8hne3gBrGsY2
cpmm-1
0.03729152410033252
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670264748537
Grillbert Jennings
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shes been pretty damn consistent with these ones, the question is whether or not shes tired of them or will continue to accept interviews.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
130
SiggiPrendergast
1688397096072
2.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1c_Pw5UEtroBaAZ0cvh3Lk59Lk3qFfmrMhpjpAzw=s96-c
0
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…296-c0e70a64e1a7
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "dUWRbLB5WWTk9mnr8hne3gBrGsY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670264749422}]
["politics-default"]
0.10224139274198275
0.5
1688397095945
1670264818500
0.3856967982286935
WzlSviUr68jnLZFXwEwy
{"NO": 219.63527512079773, "YES": 300.602394761085}
1
will-any-player-be-shown-a-red-card
275.9863439543881
Will any player be shown a red card in the quarter-finals stage of the FIFA World Cup?
1670598000000
HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2
cpmm-1
0
1.4403071815634938
True
play
YES
public
1670269913076
Nico
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There will be four quarter-final matches across Friday 9 December and Saturday 10 December. If any player is shown a red card, market resolves YES, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670688607197
250
Nico
1670575648398
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c
13
0
1
14
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670269913465}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670575648285
1670275808736
0.31
0.07528550165607369
dvNFQYurHotbyzdVnw2s
{"NO": 811.8927409703701, "YES": 1012.5925104586319}
0.052941176470588235
what-will-the-karma-on-my-college-a
1376.255018463913
What will the karma on my college admissions lesswrong post be?
1670918340000
ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2
cpmm-1
0
1.6446952357678857
True
play
MKT
public
1670271503067
Devansh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I judge you to be significantly manipulating this market I'm going to resolve it in the way that most punishes you. Otherwise, the market resolves to the amount of karma ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this post ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670955198604
830
Devansh
1670913218597
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c
12
0
1
12
0.0392156862745098
1670913218167
1670273828679
0.052941176470588235
0.2026468594114787
FMXusl9tESSg1408x7Lr
{"NO": 524.4996034632941, "YES": 182.36940992618}
0.42857142857142855
how-many-goals-will-brazil-score-ag-dfd161f331bc
751.5021598521744
How many goals will Brazil score against Croatia?
1670612427134
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
cpmm-1
0
0.7741270020010427
True
play
MKT
public
1670272089625
Franklin Baldo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Consider betting on Croatia score:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/FranklinBaldo/how-many-goals-will-croatia-score-a", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670612427134
510
FranklinBaldo
1670611596064
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
15
0
14
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670272090101}, {"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-10", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZg...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"]
0.014285714285714285
1670611595875
1670538251241
0.42857142857142855
0.10864470392045189
SNu2Dn2YXfwWePGo7oTI
{"NO": 475.8310895099559, "YES": 23.19906688761808}
0.7142857142857143
how-many-goals-will-croatia-score-a
345.0713109607407
How many goals will Croatia score against Brazil?
1670612401405
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
cpmm-1
0
3.4992755483391833
True
play
MKT
public
1670272365509
Franklin Baldo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Consider betting on Brazil score ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/FranklinBaldo/how-many-goals-will-brazil-score-ag-dfd161f331bc", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "parag...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670612401405
410
FranklinBaldo
1670611573319
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
9
0
9
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670272365857}, {"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-10", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZg...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"]
0.014285714285714285
1670611573222
1670611078362
0.7142857142857143
0.5109691291183429
Ki503rEHaAJSUopU5Rna
{"NO": 6160.458217309573, "YES": 20.40976258379669}
1
will-there-be-6-or-more-goals-on-de-fc7e6a6f402a
14148.326729925464
Will there be 6 or more goals on Dec 6 at the FIFA World Cup?
1670358943449
hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2
cpmm-1
0
3.168925364245537
True
play
YES
public
1670272639045
Rafael Zamora
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during the 90 minutes plus 30 minutes extra time ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(if any)", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670358943449
550
RafaelZamora
1670364842724
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GggL6q5Ycr6GnEmC_K4agbZHBpHXNfbvyGJd6v7SwA=s96-c
1
28
0
1
26
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670274853344}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16702726394...
["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer"]
0.5
1670358910329
1670364842074
0.9884284230084943
0.7229854927027514
u4dicsYnNcQ290nD13al
{"NO": 6.5793264912722975, "YES": 5531.420465366835}
0
will-brazil-eliminate-croatia-at-th
52568.81155576987
Will Brazil eliminate Croatia at the quarter-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1670608182591
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
0
3.3703801516050937
True
basic
NO
public
1670273723345
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Brazil wins their match or ties and wins the penality shoot-out against Croatia in their quarter-final match on December 9.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670608182591
1110
egroj
1670623454505
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
57
0
https://firebasestorage.…354-35b575eb03a9
47
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670273723698}, {"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-10", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZg...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"]
0.5
1670608164054
1670623450392
0
0.22870603751318813
boF66t1Ebz88FeE8WTvP
{"NO": 401.5379076846861, "YES": 216.7664286229655}
0.29
how-many-million-dollars-will-the-p
305.692485196914
How many million dollars will the Phillies 2023 opening day payroll be?
1680148800000
Oy3rwYmWlBRc140gKWhxZOZDGwt2
cpmm-1
0
1.464156247730221
True
play
MKT
public
1670273745136
Elena
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closest answer to the Philadelphia Phillies 2023 opening day payroll ", "type": "text"}]}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681735770540
350
EKC
1681735809954
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqcj7CWvjzqdFCC_nbWsDojxoJ4UHr9aAbdQf4Q=s96-c
7
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…6a4-e5f61b3dfe95
4
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "Oy3rwYmWlBRc140gKWhxZOZDGwt2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670273745591}]
["sports-default"]
0.215
1680134560859
1681735807860
0.29
0.4380465425963963
MfVGVekOLneeFybzFEvS
{"NO": 69.43255542586493, "YES": 1667.2986046981528}
0
will-spain-shut-out-morocco
2734.5838375669737
Will Spain shut out Morocco?
1670348824843
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
2.140191244756963
True
play
NO
public
1670273970311
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spain is the favorite, but will Morocco still be able to score? Resolves yes if Morocco has 0 goals at the end of the game. In the case of a 0-0 score into a shoot-out, I'll resolve yes if Morocco loses. (If any other clarification is needed it wil...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670348824843
350
Wobbles
1670348863820
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a81-6904f85b61c3
17
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670278314096}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1670278304170}, {"name": "Sports", "slug"...
["sports-default", "football", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670348822058
1670348860345
0.06000000000000006
iK0o8SMcPCa3Pd9MzDpp
which-team-will-win-the-2026-fifa-w
1274.1413270513435
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1783310340000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670276013948
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2659.9999999999986
Predictor
1705627774803
1.2
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
3
26
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "41d8470b2e51", "prob": 0.015552647833619569, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.10188840570091112, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.449305113942916, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iK0o8SMcPCa3Pd9MzDpp", "createdTime": 1670276016616, "probChanges": {"day": -0.98444735...
16
[{"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 1670344891754}]
["2026-fifa-world-cup"]
0.11332617378286361
1705627774559
1670710186484
True
True
0.8714509696953768
mIQ8YdCJlAcMz9fFmIUX
{"NO": 1312.2130839326924, "YES": 933.0429108331617}
0.9050696458626736
will-italy-qualify-for-the-2026-fif
1226.6602408036654
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1780372740000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0.20407873917982255
10.018346427932316
False
basic
public
1670276153549
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Predictor
1710096899116
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
1
19
0
https://firebasestorage.…84b-fb292222936e
9
[{"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 1670338697470}]
["2026-fifa-world-cup"]
0.15084280022245122
0.5
1710096895694
1683251856939
0.443042438981658
UcWqLWhO3VsOX7aEdDZH
{"NO": 159.9418370854311, "YES": 516.5527499861306}
0
will-brazil-shut-out-croatia
884.244896638826
Will Brazil shut out Croatia?
1670607000000
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
1.4139029262970657
True
play
NO
public
1670277846381
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Brazil are the heavy favorites for the match, but will Croatia atleast be able to score? Resolves yes if Croatia scores 0 goals by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in shoot-out, it will resolve as yes if Croatia sti...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670608363920
290
Wobbles
1670606993584
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…0bd-4f7572b99007
15
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670278328810}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1670278326713}, {"name": "Sports", "slug"...
["sports-default", "football", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"]
0.5
1670606992358
1670278299677
0.2
0.661481121523637
5LdOrhnbfNkZ0DYX58MP
{"NO": 1940.3610529378118, "YES": 38.490846111315456}
1
will-the-netherlands-score-against
2722.5019020662467
Will the Netherlands score against Argentina?
1670619361093
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
3.858281292895931
True
play
YES
public
1670278261453
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Argentina are the slight favorites for the match, but will the Netherlands still be able to score? Resolves yes if the Netherlands scores atleast 1 goal against Argentina by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in shoot...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670619361093
250
Wobbles
1670618737530
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…fd3-0f9ed9906fad
14
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670278354475}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1670278352432}, {"name": "Sports", "slug"...
["sports-default", "football", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670618737421
1670513009935
0.99
0.4972141447739345
OsSFHYLrpS1A2268ArL3
{"NO": 2500.7631924530842, "YES": 82.36701975303959}
1
will-3-or-more-goals-be-scored-duri
3660.7609114339807
Will 3 or more goals be scored during the Final game of the World Cup?
1671381821285
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
1.659721478206245
True
play
YES
public
1670278884007
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the score at the end of the game is 3 or more, then this market resolves as YES. Shoot-out goals do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-18 10:44 am", "t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671381821285
570
Wobbles
1671381816304
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
30
0
https://firebasestorage.…d57-9b039f1d7a25
30
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670278933302}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670278920484}, {"n...
["sports-default", "soccer", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "2022-world-cup-final"]
0.5
1671381816212
1671375224771
0.96
0.15203613936313595
WbRvBlbNRXLvwfPc0Pv8
{"NO": 108.42134022893856, "YES": 2878.8637393903778}
0
will-more-than-3-goals-be-scored-in
4997.957575899045
Will more than 3 goals be scored in the France vs England game?
1670707200000
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
4.338830511373067
True
play
NO
public
1670279773946
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will more than 3 goals be scored during the France and England game on Saturday? Shoot-out goals do not count", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 3:20 pm", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670768242309
370
Wobbles
1670706598598
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
19
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…313-cd91817eaba2
20
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670279774422}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16706107229...
["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670706598446
1670616647079
0.01
0.6754944100357585
gdlXskedvlOAAj9HCVMZ
{"NO": 120.22975176588258, "YES": 79.0331290847618}
0
will-i-get-to-bed-by-1120pm-at-leas
171.77614694637106
Will I get to bed by 11:20pm at least 4 times this week?
1670860840764
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.4158801454488854
True
play
NO
public
1670280582679
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670860840764
130
Charlie
1670860934767
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…0fe-d45da5482b16
7
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670280583336}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1670859692643
1670860932257
0.76
0.7873701724340559
QnMkGsJj29Hy75ASFweE
{"NO": 253.50379050890217, "YES": 92.8411147066801}
1
starting-today-will-i-do-at-least-o
195.43109248292524
Starting today, will I do at least one pomodoro of work on at least 8 of the next 9 days?
1670993940000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.860102979327243
True
play
YES
public
1670280823228
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet NO on this market nor sell YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-13 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671052335138
130
Charlie
1670824314375
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ad7-5b7b02fd7f7f
6
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670280823526}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1670824314174
1670597042113
0.91
SNG9RmcDKNb3QFhJJx5J
who-will-win-the-chess-boxing-main
94
Who will win the Chess boxing main fight on Dec 11th: GM Aman Hambleton or IM Lawrence Trent?
1670803200000
a9iqhIOeaggedH2pMFOil4Ox8jq1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.843903662697684
True
play
a39bd85404ea
public
1670280886750
Mike Rogers
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On December 11th the popular streamer Ludwig Ahgren is hosting a Chess boxing event in Los Angeles. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Ludwig's announcement: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670834647088
320
MikeRogers
1720053161621
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0h7jVmahZo9xD3xRjh5AqfN08YRBag0FoSHjTR=s96-c
5
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "a39bd85404ea", "prob": 0.5149590817302582, "text": "GM Aman Hambleton", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 199.91047031060177, "userId": "a9iqhIOeaggedH2pMFOil4Ox8jq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 188.2960443485907, "textFts": "'aman':2 'gm':1 'hambleton':3", "contractId": "SNG9RmcDKNb3QFhJJx5J", "crea...
1
https://firebasestorage.…06c-1433a3c4a7fe
6
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "a9iqhIOeaggedH2pMFOil4Ox8jq1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670280887052}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1691182007042}]
["sports-default", "chess"]
1670799292880
1670280914470
False
{"a39bd85404ea": 100}
True
0.288766749115583
FNAd7QlqGK1uIHJhao6I
{"NO": 361.0524901184058, "YES": 20343.288821263657}
0
will-anthropic-or-deepmind-publish
25184.47053403613
Will Anthropic OR Deepmind publish their alignment plan before March 1, 2023?
1677715140000
Cc0aoacvTbY8BzI9Dk99TnSMfjj1
cpmm-1
0
0.8535589560361094
True
basic
NO
public
1670281286681
Samuel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently OpenAI has published an alignment plan. Resolves YES if either Anthropic or Deepmind publishes their alignment plan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Lr99AGm4czFK7b...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677728558120
1390
Samuel
1678396731463
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkZ3o79XK1vb4Je1WM5oi7JWrQm6wy358hpG1oe=s96-c
6
64
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a01-c3949e19872f
47
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Cc0aoacvTbY8BzI9Dk99TnSMfjj1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670281287461}]
["ai"]
0.5
1677704607302
1678396727656
0.01
rrQXqak7HLbyjw8MouFU
by-the-end-of-2023-what-will-be-my
1123.4819101249086
By the end of 2023, what will be my deepest regret?
1704095940000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.687835669469095
True
play
07f3dead08ce
public
1670283921279
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704098354674
1780.000000000001
Alana
1704099276753
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
34
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "d38e83b7a470", "prob": 0.02278958130989934, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.18411646566209922, "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.8948588853296595, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rrQXqak7HLbyjw8MouFU", "resolverId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "createdTime": 167...
1
https://firebasestorage.…60f-d3f25610df60
25
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670283950164}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703122418306}]
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
1703271622189
1704099276070
{"07f3dead08ce": 100}
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
True
0.20121531076251403
2yhUXBKEimVSSKdrIbdE
{"NO": 103.78833950170448, "YES": 242.0068110632449}
0.09749895887814848
if-i-submit-a-professional-article
285.0003277529654
If I submit a professional article to Secondaries Investor detailing how LPs can best evaluate bids received on LP interests, will it get published?
1704095940000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
3.786253828833222
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670286801752
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My writing experience is limited and there is no precedent in my life for being 'published' by a news organization. Secondaries Investor is the preeminent news source that reports on the industry in which I work. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704132060932
150
CarsonGale
1704132061225
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…539-243f40bf722f
4
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670286802066}, {"name": "Markets About Carson", "slug": "markets-about-carson", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "QF1b8oZcjh8UqJO0VKAa", "createdTime": 1...
["personal-goals", "markets-about-carson", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1689847737148
1670286908513
0.1
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
0.06494893272437413
97WYs1Ej6GgEbVZnBQL1
{"NO": 961.0658771410144, "YES": 1151.8740601784996}
0.05477949003076259
networking-which-new-person-will-i
891.6485691071384
AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026
1798761540000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
10.568386281290437
False
basic
public
1670287934171
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 5, 4:54pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Networking: Which new person will I be most glad to have met/talked to in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by th...
BINARY
{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.0038215809151448217, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Alana
1716752940765
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…a95-43c165077f9c
9
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670288122233}, {"name": "New York", "slug": "new-york", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "WHYL7vwzRusHiIbe3uRu", "createdTime": 1670288116200}, {"name": ...
["new-york", "technology-default", "ai"]
0.10391480544189517
0.5
1716752937044
1670288964465
0.49620362950411917
Ffs8xjEaqdj6xEBG3dJJ
{"NO": 42043.6949355165, "YES": 24.50237478157098}
1
will-matt-levine-link-to-manifold-b
65083.66788680805
Will Matt Levine link to Manifold by 2024?
1700590404740
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
1.0874066051427835
True
basic
YES
public
1670288448457
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Manifold Markets is referenced or linked to by Matt Levine in his Money Stuff newsletter, before the end of next year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1700590404740
1420
Austin
1700675145746
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
12
108
0
https://firebasestorage.…89e-4db0fd65c143
27
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670288448872}, {"name": "Matt Levine ", "slug": "matt-levine", "groupId": "34e50685-ee3e-46af-ae0b-3e539f7c2966", "createdTime": 1700382068448}]
["manifold-6748e065087e", "matt-levine"]
0.5
1700590344283
1700675143804
1
pJSHTFXVGNi2RZFcZT5T
networking-which-new-person-will-i-08f7413125d8
70.2420452071859
Networking: Which new person will I be the most glad to have met/talked to by the end of 2023?
1704067140000
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.878051920376677
True
play
1db4531dbcff
public
1670288513631
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I mustn't have talked to this person at length before this market was made. (A very short conversation, eg. greeting each other, doesn't count).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will I be t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704072673744
440
Alana
1704072674068
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c5924142f0e6", "prob": 0.363957975735616, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.038110535044275, "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 57.7364094305344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pJSHTFXVGNi2RZFcZT5T", "resolverId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "createdTime": 16702885...
1
https://firebasestorage.…082-d10a6f97d051
8
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670288513945}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129198523}]
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
1686582924831
1670589099233
{"1db4531dbcff": 100}
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
True
0.08032362770394767
gAFjK0EumAlvtWmyQZ89
{"NO": 326.4192026410302, "YES": 286.5917942184567}
0.047619047619047616
how-many-riot-control-methods-will
183.032424694967
How many riot control methods will the CCP use when responding to Zero Covid protests in December 2022?
1672502400000
lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33
cpmm-1
0
0.9536442155963161
True
play
MKT
public
1670289317915
Bjorn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the number of riot control methods which there is evidence of the Chinese police actually using when responding to Zero Covid protests ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "in December 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672727145617
330
brp
1672727208514
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…812-42514346ab63
6
[{"name": "Zero Covid", "slug": "zero-covid", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "iK2RFHGRKiw0isbLemIR", "createdTime": 1670289318109}]
["zero-covid"]
0.047619047619047616
1670461006901
1672727205263
0.047619047619047616
0.630401219328816
JwSlIBMQtq5GvUTbUMVo
{"NO": 2105.97581337132, "YES": 21.245135512032572}
1
will-any-match-have-more-than-5-goa
2395.5785112295557
Will any match have more than 5 goals in total during the World Cup?
1670358992120
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
4.785960366032929
True
play
YES
public
1670289348184
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any entire match (meaning both teams combine) is more than 5 goals. Resolves NO if not. Shoot-out goals do not count", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670358992120
190
Wobbles
1670358989439
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…043-54c1194061c8
10
[{"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1670289360597}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670289348659},...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "football", "soccer"]
0.5
1670358450816
1670358986461
0.9941202544234193
0.5853829501097308
dBTCr4WYAD7rlIvh1Nd5
{"NO": 2924.0716992664998, "YES": 37.60609546584436}
1
will-another-team-score-4-goals-in
3174.4797017752535
Will another team score 4 goals in one match during the world cup?
1670360122982
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
3.186184925650944
True
play
YES
public
1670289616739
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brazil beat Korea 4-1, but will another game have a team score 4 or more goals? If any team scores 4 or more goals in one match during the world cup then this resolves YES. Brazil is still eligible to resolve this if they score 4 goals again. Shoot...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670360122982
350
Wobbles
1670360098713
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…507-9a4d3104cf4e
18
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670289617192}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670360098572
1670289716191
0.990973088686695
0.7359653250835819
2UNpGEanwbFybQWDDbFb
{"NO": 752.5793237159509, "YES": 1066.3611525618298}
0.6629797951158163
botw-stands-for-breath-of-the-wild
987.6168457300116
BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?
4070941200000
0ctfOq9Yc1Z6kc0rgvY6kI0XQpu2
cpmm-1
0
9.577936971718136
False
basic
public
1670292208605
Cimorene Blume
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
CimoreneBlume
1716921417705
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjkdaJSP1wp9_UdvBxk2hVsYAFO8WKlnJ7Y1jj6fg=s96-c
29
0
https://firebasestorage.…4dc-5de3336e35ff
14
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "0ctfOq9Yc1Z6kc0rgvY6kI0XQpu2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670292209354}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670292682871}]
["gaming", "personal-goals"]
0.5
1695178369596
1716921416119
0.33627279890717116
sN43JzBVwUA7kxcbwypt
{"NO": 1459.4069680280604, "YES": 3.554815696713888}
1
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17050-a
3238.9968846509155
Will Bitcoin price be above $17050 at Dec 6 10pm ET?
1670384041826
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
5.035867050770971
True
play
YES
public
1670292680346
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670384041826
270
GeneFama
1670384335835
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…0d6-61ec03f8a4c7
14
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670292681043}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146...
["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"]
0.5
1670384035861
1670384333608
0.5499999999999998
0.22016614401761142
7Ih7fuaKth2XqzqcWM0E
{"NO": 122.40487068971056, "YES": 6292.034159383038}
0
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17060-a
6214.818420172591
Will Bitcoin price be above $17060 at Dec 7 10pm ET?
1670471940000
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
2.732559238251789
True
play
NO
public
1670292686055
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670522595604
350
GeneFama
1670469125501
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
17
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…cf5-30dca19958ea
18
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670292686682}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146...
["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"]
0.5
1670469125388
1670292857732
0.01
PdtDjDncJfv8j3y1u7xp
deltarune-who-is-the-knight
1093.707201039831
Deltarune: Who is the knight?
2051326740000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670294098656
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves when Deltarune Chapter 7 releases, unless it comes out after Jan 1 2035, in which case it will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's not fairly clear in the game I will also resolve N/A....
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Ibozz91
1713855268944
0.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
2
12
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "23184accd754", "prob": 0.01053467191224125, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.566028289680052, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.164006626958326, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PdtDjDncJfv8j3y1u7xp", "createdTime": 1670294099080, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9894653280...
https://firebasestorage.…249-621c4cede9c6
4
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1670294098947}, {"name": "Deltarune", "slug": "deltarune", "userId": "XquaG2KfrBeRJaV23RQigKazTNf2", "groupId": "okoNikC5JTpLks0scYVE", "createdTime": 1682101405046}]
["culture-default", "deltarune"]
0.09836271499193337
1713855268944
1712900830258
True
True
0.7906926913515449
Q9AYUdH1Reuj9FpbEwvr
{"NO": 126.8216773858995, "YES": 1531.047769816802}
0.23833677986961624
will-gregg-berhalter-be-coach-of-th
11693.343388450463
Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup?
1798771440000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
9.66280599950073
False
basic
public
1670294697814
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Gregg (3G) Berhalter is generally accepted to be the head coach of the USMNT on their first game of the 2026 World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.23411945734929593, "month": -0.5990288265709123}
0
{"creatorFee": 92.88157392639097, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Charlie
1719947992136
0.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
1
40
4
https://firebasestorage.…e8b-5aa896809bde
11
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670294708217}, {"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "zB7SeMTUK4R0jMRihlDP", "createdTime": 1670294698006}, {"name": "2026 FIFA Wor...
["us-soccer", "soccer", "2026-fifa-world-cup"]
0.12410264953803085
0.5
1719947989022
1718271993135
0.6201528503081993
P82Vjlv20P2Yjn8Kh4yc
{"NO": 2806.930034922036, "YES": 509.1889265882574}
0.9
will-justin-sun-founder-of-tron-be
3461.2197532125588
Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
1893430800000
YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2
cpmm-1
0
9.90313690574035
False
basic
public
1670296141835
Scrooge McDuck
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Justin Sun", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Sun", "class": null, "ta...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.232900141925368}
0
{"creatorFee": 30.151542603509338, "platformFee": 0.11670372516338934, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScroogeMcDuck
1718659750388
0
https://firebasestorage.…67b-77a20a25abcc
0
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…639-e8f3095adf93
4
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1673051967641}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1673051964321}, {...
["scandal-markets", "law-order", "crypto-speculation", "cryptochargemarkets"]
0.10095688463182277
0.5
1718659747172
1679539569536
0.35839068648188144
w7BVXejunIHlMR0kgn69
{"NO": 330.36185094237726, "YES": 1988.612069678267}
0
will-musks-neuralink-be-charged-pen
4892.72499502468
Will Musk’s Neuralink be charged penalties for violations of the Animal Welfare Act?
1712681798912
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
cpmm-1
0
0.7758403162206253
True
play
NO
public
1670296880906
Nico
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A USDA investigation is ongoing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/0...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08491551849235031}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1712681798912
750
NicoDelon
1712681824120
0
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
2
41
0
https://firebasestorage.…381-150ba3ad52db
22
[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy"}, {"name": "Brain–computer interface", "slug": "bra...
["science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "animal-welfare", "braincomputer-interface"]
0.5
1710994978982
1712681823367
False
0.08
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
0.4558111466566935
ROw8dpgbUJsJ9sQWTSCE
{"NO": 881.8250102624323, "YES": 1046.9663361603602}
0.4136549675483723
will-someone-fail-to-hydrateeat-dyi
986.4576675963405
Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?
1985918400000
utQ1XqqCoUNMGtNE8EMN6hoJx1d2
cpmm-1
0
9.822268066791468
False
basic
public
1670298496844
Grant Thompson
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOJqhZKJPOo.png?alt=media&token=17ff5b30-7b0f-4913-8603-82bf414ce4d0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.02942165832360988, "month": 0.029421658323609767}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.669763901173288, "platformFee": 1.6506683488996432, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
GrantThompson
1719821313580
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0IsbBUL_f7m6JhGEEnq_ciaH0KfBt_KRRK5MKW8g=s96-c
16
1
https://firebasestorage.…a7e-c0f718562523
10
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "utQ1XqqCoUNMGtNE8EMN6hoJx1d2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1670298497263}]
["predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1719821310486
1671166690760
0.6868045816914154
Ao4hwWZ5GNYA5PE5t4l2
{"NO": 783.9829377737202, "YES": 65.59163566873633}
1
democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-f7d1323b7e36
790.3837130251286
Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only)
1670382000000
q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1
cpmm-1
0
3.1316606542493157
True
play
YES
public
1670298996066
Gamble market
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670383720605
230
Gamble_market
1670381999648
0
https://firebasestorage.…924-4bd06d85e659
9
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…641-a8d2e986e2db
9
[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1670298996362}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime"...
["whale-watching", "nonpredictive-profits"]
0.5
False
1670381999525
1670299057616
0.9632495320575698
0.5037974498864018
fJWDNkhFN96chL5Wna1D
{"NO": 35.88419287649753, "YES": 2283.693103437868}
0
will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-d9f7a646600b
3341.3065148803184
Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 day)
1670382000000
q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1
cpmm-1
0
2.7293095246084347
True
play
NO
public
1670299061876
Gamble market
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670383762261
450
Gamble_market
1670381964914
0
https://firebasestorage.…924-4bd06d85e659
0
22
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…7fb-6caf45b517d7
22
[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670299062183}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime":...
["selfresolving", "nonpredictive-profits"]
0.5
False
1670381964748
1670364354882
0.015703211606702957
0.7465809727268665
Xbah2RBOksHj7733VCtm
{"NO": 3216.7127590089012, "YES": 249.10742820385923}
1
will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-8d9c53b463a6
3208.787423163254
Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 day)
1670468400000
q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1
cpmm-1
0
1.372774262376398
True
play
YES
public
1670299089077
Gamble market
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670468603064
550
Gamble_market
1670466867576
0
https://firebasestorage.…924-4bd06d85e659
27
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…b7d-9ad138b247db
26
[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670299089614}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime":...
["selfresolving", "nonpredictive-profits"]
0.5
False
1670466867406
1670299180892
0.97
0.5347397669843951
URzOlvhKOkbVs40WCCp6
{"NO": 408.1669173140783, "YES": 239.4736842105263}
0.6620439286936167
what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-3635adf5cc77
145
What will be the final net IRR for Genstar Capital XI? (X100)
2240639940000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670299207692
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
310
CarsonGale
1683616096362
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…bef-efa1d1966dfa
4
[{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161750}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"...
["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1683616095225
1670299309586
0.5256328348180703
MW6vVfNPXObRVrFPUG9E
{"NO": 386.41386377441626, "YES": 251.4721606507037}
0.6299956133996993
what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-7deae1b1e0c4
104.00013926972413
What will be the final net IRR for Siris Partners V? (X100)
2240639940000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670299551247
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
310
CarsonGale
1681937220987
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…49d-2cf6bb7bfb9d
4
[{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161750}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"...
["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets"]
0.5
1681937220869
1670299683886
0.33996583637047345
xN6voW6z7Uu5SoUANfbh
{"NO": 404.25934457535055, "YES": 4711.824906006279}
0
will-destiny-reach-365m-total-views
14275.47134373607
Will Destiny reach 365M total views by the end of December?
1672531140000
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
0.6819838445856132
True
basic
NO
public
1670299586977
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny reaches 365 million total views by the end of the year then this market resolves to yes. Current predictions are here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/futureprojections", "type": "text", "marks"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672545110168
1070
Wobbles
1710218628307
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
1
54
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…29e-200039596b82
46
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1672518692789
1672114891764
0.04
0.523945637007095
bORr15Jy98Uz0DCOUib7
{"NO": 388.4809516204374, "YES": 282.58540172938064}
0.6020751739979721
what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-7ce22cedb038
61
What will be the final net IRR for Symphony Technology Group VII? (X100)
2240639940000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670299784238
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
330
CarsonGale
1685539736331
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7e-47377e9d3eb6
5
[{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161749}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"...
["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1685539736146
1670299904831
0.10842470687304984
WHxMqljqxQ2khpBtjfnY
{"NO": 664.9991614525104, "YES": 2170.3247457944476}
0
will-destiny-be-unbanned-from-twitt-c59d7e8714c3
6563.71241520328
Will Destiny be unbanned from Twitter in the next week?
1670889540000
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
1.25507696450663
True
play
NO
public
1670300248692
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Destiny is unbanned on twitter by December 12th at 6pm cst", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670954063074
790
Wobbles
1670888758906
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
41
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…60f-9fe5af4a525c
39
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670300249399}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1670888758741
1670300373486
0.04
0.5696633913843803
wLr9nn7TprlWZIWXUfWl
{"NO": 344.90736451275103, "YES": 127.69813783542762}
0
will-i-wake-up-before-9am-at-least
565.3775464305393
Will I wake up before 9am at least five times between 2022-12-04 and 2022-12-10?
1670662800000
LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1
cpmm-1
0
1.315532942501944
True
play
NO
public
1670300987390
Eleni Shor
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if I wake up at or before 9am at least five times between 2022-12-04 and 2022-12-10. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670700168524
210
eleni
1670642248380
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feleni%2FUu99sBA4Tw.30?alt=media&token=d23604f3-c622-4a68-bde6-e3cbca5b2acb
11
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…54b-2194efc12aa5
9
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670300988155}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1670642248198
1670523892416
0.78
0.08433601673864205
EZW6D8UYPr9WV5yrq0Yz
{"NO": 212.86129098303036, "YES": 1801.9990682444654}
0
will-brazil-score-11-or-more-goals
9614.042775873402
Will Brazil score 11 or more goals during the entire World Cup?
1670693846755
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
4.625468713362604
True
play
NO
public
1670301252217
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Brazil's total goals scored during the 2022 World Cup is 11 or more. Own goals, and shoot-out goals do not count. Brazil has scored 7 goals at time of market creation. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670693846755
450
Wobbles
1670693820500
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…e70-1833574f8e31
24
[{"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-09", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZgsJJPP", "createdTime": 1670503603283}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime":...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "football", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1670693820380
1670622131994
0.02
0.5145384739294078
BO3UXKFmcV7gdjWNHyHH
{"NO": 69.64307677904527, "YES": 69.64307677904529}
0.5145384739294078
kpaul-industrial
632.0872497602081
KPaul Industrial
1672442005354
FqwoGbts3pWhjMHhatwYMAETZ9F3
cpmm-1
0
3.564267022596101
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670302338944
Emma Miller
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672442005354
70
EmmaMiller
1710208088710
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6f7R1nEWXq8y1MTKrJNB4WtadDxqEowt60BveI=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…dfe-c9d17d453ef2
2
[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]
["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]
0.5
1670302846680
1670302446674
0.51
0.5054904282430867
hB7JEgCi3h9fYLKW0iBm
{"NO": 240.42205947206645, "YES": 17064.18393472445}
0
will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-have-a-9417fe5850fd
74892.79556055214
Will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war in 2023?
1704027540000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
0.6998413665787919
True
basic
NO
public
1670303972302
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704085590494
2330
BTE
1704085592100
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
8
202
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…df0-b16defcfb0ef
24
[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1670303972610}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1695244682891}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-year...
["global-macro", "wars", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703516815187
1697385711379
0.01
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
0.21500554308747463
rwQE4R6g4gCQP5iJeiz6
{"NO": 790.6045192196287, "YES": 4188.302472508866}
0
will-an-ai-win-advent-of-code-2023
15829.78750435453
Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2023)
1703570340000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0.17604796585632704
0.5840094063849244
True
basic
NO
public
1670304539584
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705073016201
1160
Gigacasting
1705073016631
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
76
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…a5f-0b282af38370
32
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304539877}, {"name": "Advent of Code", "slug": "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e", "groupId": "48609770-257d-4f66-b641-5d3c09cf6990", "createdTime": 1701467596914}]
["ai", "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e"]
0.18728142360699016
0.5
1703528948714
1701448008486
0.05
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.5177927716091733
zYRdlKl6F9ftk1lhz0lO
{"NO": 637.4225182442477, "YES": 1396.3300801422406}
0.32894317134446777
will-an-ai-win-advent-of-code-2025
2593.6314906883094
Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2025)
1766728740000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
9.741306056688966
False
basic
public
1670304563251
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003223473278666178}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.532249213378745, "platformFee": 0.6390815270493311, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1718965382291
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
46
0
https://firebasestorage.…206-4cecb6f89be7
21
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304563547}, {"name": "Advent of Code", "slug": "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e", "groupId": "48609770-257d-4f66-b641-5d3c09cf6990", "createdTime": 1701467614754}]
["ai", "advent-of-code-0b9522d17a3e"]
0.1127381713241011
0.5
1718965379234
1677291949459
0.43444015810786796
GofaRGRk5CxxuOPqtP1m
{"NO": 876.9846608717239, "YES": 119.01547711224634}
0.8498567612327357
ai-leaderboard-ranking-aoc-2023
749.4355464242775
AI Leaderboard Ranking: AoC 2023
1703570340000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670304636349
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://adventofcode.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://adventofcode.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
390
Gigacasting
1713886151535
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
9
0
35
https://firebasestorage.…0c3-3311ff1bca1c
6
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670304636617}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511338540}]
["ai", "ancient-markets"]
0.34948500216800943
1698271698213
1713886151005
0.6958876080008731
nU6PwpIBQeQ5iHv3ikF7
{"NO": 340.71280334437336, "YES": 236.35489713085286}
1
will-i-be-able-to-display-multiple
113.28719665562646
Will I be able to display multiple virtual monitors when extending my desktop onto my VR headset by the end of 2023?
1694706378258
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
1.5300243716492035
True
play
YES
public
1670306430441
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a Meta Quest 2. As of now (to my understanding) I can only have 1 virtual monitor in my headset. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694706378258
270
CarsonGale
1694706371057
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
1
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…a87-92d017256549
8
[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1670306430613}, {"name": "Markets About Carson", "slug": "markets-about-carson", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "QF1b8oZcjh8UqJO0VKAa", "createdTime":...
["virtual-reality", "markets-about-carson"]
0.09101976688864381
0.5
1694581489408
1694706369390
0.77
l3gf1Sd7gMNAKdFRmFsJ
in-which-year-will-global-warming-e
5753.673235229509
In which year will global warming exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius?
1705116511726
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.625555045491355
True
basic
1065888adfe7
public
1670314768634
cshunter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Global average surface temperature was 1.2°C higher than the pre-industrial average in 2021 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Hansen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2022/Temperatur...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705116511726
1339.9999999999998
cash
1710207025530
0
https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e
1
15
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "e5087711b61c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "2022", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'2022':1", "contractId": "l3gf1Sd7gMNAKdFRmFsJ", "resolverId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "createdTime": 1670314...
https://firebasestorage.…9d9-9baf1689f405
8
[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw"}, {"name": "Global Warming ", "slug": "global-warming", "groupId": "1d594418-9039-4fb8-a2ba-9e25fe45cd91"}, {"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-24381059...
["world-default", "climate", "global-warming", "environment-243810591da2"]
1705096615540
1706209683809
{"1065888adfe7": 100}
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
True
0.7364609233646807
EMfRZD7CEL2asqW5dSAd
{"NO": 4768.298207352762, "YES": 283.74265750968243}
1
will-the-spy-close-the-year-2023-in
9181.750184319373
Will the spy close the year 2023 in green?
1703867454408
fZ5nAL3jXzQSH7wnLPIuxXD5nMC3
cpmm-1
0
1.1737596652630828
True
play
YES
public
1670319852129
Meher Harshith
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves if the spy Etf closes the year 2023 Jan 1st to dec 31st in green", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703867454408
630
MeherHarshith
1703867455435
0
https://firebasestorage.…648-cd65e3a58093
1
34
0
https://firebasestorage.…112-7345f9a77047
9
[{"name": "Investing ", "slug": "investing", "userId": "fZ5nAL3jXzQSH7wnLPIuxXD5nMC3", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1670319852287}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "fZ5nAL3jXzQSH7wnLPIuxXD5nMC3", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670341314285}, {"...
["investing", "crypto-speculation", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.10492030547108158
0.5
1703867424699
1684145159741
0.98
fZ5nAL3jXzQSH7wnLPIuxXD5nMC3
0.10481739078624581
rkzY5LP52uyxJ88a6Fbs
{"NO": 261.13279559803476, "YES": 732.1802572736052}
0
will-elon-musk-win-times-2022-perso
1427.9796226927617
Will Elon Musk win Time's 2022 Person of the Year?
1670419495905
G3S3nhcGWhPU3WEtlUYbAH4tv7f1
cpmm-1
0
3.23616978668139
True
play
NO
public
1670323508979
AGG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner to be announced on the Today Show, 12/7/22.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-07 9:30 am", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670419495905
370
AGG
1710451953025
0
https://firebasestorage.…9ef-7839c1d6b8d0
0
19
0
https://firebasestorage.…52d-d6e219c1e469
19
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "time-person-of-the-year"]
0.5
1670419255128
1670323580550
0.04008641781406436
0.5937431779175206
trtGe5005jS2u5mVz1Vq
{"NO": 630, "YES": 22.83172698058175}
1
will-park-pass-reservations-be-requ
540
Will Park Pass reservations be required for any level of annual passholder entry to Walt Disney World theme parks on October 1, 2023?
1696132800000
aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72
cpmm-1
0
4.3900018832987175
True
play
YES
public
1670326639104
Twirlnhurl
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, all visitors to the Walt Disney World theme parks are required to make a reservation to enter the theme parks. This is an unpopular policy originally implemented by Disney during summer 2020 operations as a reaction to covid-19, which al...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1696179369909
90
Twirlnhurl
1694616838151
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Lb14lpZOF1yxUurWsRBNKkKHGy5ib1gI3DeQU=s96-c
3
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ddc-339b62c99854
4
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1670326639381}, {"name": "Disney", "slug": "disney", "userId": "aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72", "groupId": "KGsJivMTU5jUaEGS8O88", "createdTime": 1670500640171},...
["entertainment", "disney", "theme-parks"]
0.5
1694616838029
1670326676359
0.98
0.49499999835121467
HhkJCfSNFpod0AN0s7qR
{"NO": 150.79563359051497, "YES": 111.50547298258357}
0
will-i-make-a-profit-trading-this-m
107.50905874831068
Will I make a profit trading this market?
1675238340000
kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1
cpmm-1
0
2.0844387569359877
True
play
NO
public
1670328638023
Alex Rockwell
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before resolution, I will sell all my shares resulting in a net 0 share position. If I have made a profit of at least 1M it will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675680680817
130
AlexRockwell
1672684731153
0
https://firebasestorage.…df9-4e148250b2c7
6
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…fb1-31ec00a22ffc
8
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1670328757946}]
["fun"]
0.5
1672684731040
1672598755773
0.57
0.5000000000000003
Z8fLvuXWZpENTfKJKi75
{"NO": 120, "YES": 20.83333333333333}
1
will-tron-lightcycle-run-use-boardi
70
Will Tron Lightcycle Run use Boarding Groups to manage queues when it opens at the Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World in 2023?
1676544023214
aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72
cpmm-1
4.727987442245379
True
play
YES
public
1670331727365
Twirlnhurl
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disney has opened new attractions using a Boarding Group ride reservation system to manage queues for three of the last four new rides to open since December 2019. This system essentially acts as an early morning lottery to distribute access to the...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1676544023214
50
Twirlnhurl
1676544055340
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Lb14lpZOF1yxUurWsRBNKkKHGy5ib1gI3DeQU=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b4-34e5b21153bb
2
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1670331727621}, {"name": "Disney", "slug": "disney", "userId": "aUm62rN8iHdheW8eEpoRMw9AJf72", "groupId": "KGsJivMTU5jUaEGS8O88", "createdTime": 1670500626602},...
["entertainment", "disney", "theme-parks"]
0.5
1670331753541
1676544049596
0.85
0.3546367252899252
rgdw8WtPumwtQ5zdlwX7
{"NO": 1437.3786234938668, "YES": 6799.075612999143}
0.10408058385379183
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6
107729.39518081011
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
1735775940000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
6.299926533298355
False
basic
public
1670332427663
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2025, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.07510522838043, "platformFee": 20.07510522838043, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
2535
jack
1715623165502
0.2
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
6
164
0
https://firebasestorage.…8c7-df50396a8f98
49
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670333198794}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670333197452}, {"nam...
["programming", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "imo-grand-challenge", "metaculus"]
0.14851341728062956
0.5
1715623162095
1702040246211
0.1935768361449214
piAS3nrk5sb3SxLgvYD8
{"NO": 1006.1946551382856, "YES": 16424.69577956891}
0
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-91c577533429
24572.692562499185
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2024?
1704085140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
0.4969984589808156
True
basic
NO
public
1670333193805
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2024, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704135346870
1780
jack
1704135347623
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
3
97
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f3f-6fa819e0ef18
38
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670333202558}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1670333194015}, {"name": "Technical AI Time...
["programming", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703331155473
1681948713135
0.01
b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3
x9QxUFqb4bnnkgw0WchW
what-is-the-next-country-to-join-eu
655.0003315910692
Next country to join the European Union:
1956524340000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1670334149556
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "related:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-leave-e", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 1.358718709685811, "platformFee": 0.9514900618066064, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
itsTomekK
1719005000489
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
17
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "7aba857cf05e", "prob": 0.05135820925669114, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8512824325211346, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.195193083560895, "textFts": "", "contractId": "x9QxUFqb4bnnkgw0WchW", "createdTime": 1670334149908, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0060055111...
https://firebasestorage.…6ee-4f8f1ce99c1d
4
[{"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1670334149791}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226318}, {"name": "India", "slug": ...
["tomeks-specials", "ukrainerussia-war", "india", "europe", "eu-accession"]
1719004997155
1703698744813
False
True
True
0.6621836540747777
Xgf196POoau39qBAj4Ye
{"NO": 1288.1911154209968, "YES": 2383.400746138124}
0.5144337869562453
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-abb4e8b3c38a
57156.1089592045
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?
1798761540000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
2.0451063891205176e-15
4.765808396036459
False
basic
public
1670334158549
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2027, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01657851240244884}
0
{"creatorFee": 38.03955964444149, "platformFee": 9.68582331581174, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1960
jack
1719147890028
0.9
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
3
69
0
https://firebasestorage.…9ad-43b67250848d
17
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670334158806}]
["technical-ai-timelines"]
0.13984653918962572
0.5
1719147886984
1691556542873
0.7480797902046099
oz3XH73zP2fcn03XJdT4
{"NO": 1105.658180723614, "YES": 2047.1508848616527}
0.6159490483952893
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-f9788f277f2e
139912.02814193713
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?
1893455940000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
2.971921624860273
False
basic
public
1670334237679
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2030, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.0408119313272538, "month": -0.07271341930598085}
0
{"creatorFee": 198.89339683641876, "platformFee": 122.56535154527705, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1775
jack
1720062436865
1.7
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
6
89
1
https://firebasestorage.…735-9af9fa413ed5
29
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670334237917}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908028}]
["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"]
0.1429949023094092
0.5
1720062433658
1688081979781
False
0.08431912799136522
iw7rsJnGnLiyyqvgD8oh
{"NO": 804.2762798238551, "YES": 6283.485998250196}
0
will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of
9071.825835588817
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023?
1704038340000
IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2
cpmm-1
0
1.407107019211617
True
play
NO
public
1670335189619
morewings
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2023-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704138133017
985
morewings
1704138133468
0
https://firebasestorage.…302-97eda00b46ea
2
53
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…1af-c049ff772fec
21
[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1670335228039}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1670335226039}, {"name": "Cryptocurre...
["sbf", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "crime", "death-markets", "sbf-trial", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703021578520
1696817368809
0.01
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
0.10872102142700205
5OnTru6dBYh03rKy0z1Q
{"NO": 825.0411820425444, "YES": 3910.0514729073584}
0.025093203622522767
will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of-968c69b0844d
6862.356584939196
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2024?
1735660740000
IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2
cpmm-1
0
10.376254732075086
False
basic
public
1670335271102
morewings
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2024-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -0.05490679637747718, "month": -0.05490679637747718}
0
{"creatorFee": 14.870738233583618, "platformFee": 0.3290242621553902, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
morewings
1720133048290
0
https://firebasestorage.…302-97eda00b46ea
42
2
https://firebasestorage.…55e-99afb8587c4c
30
[{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1670335298264}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1670335296394...
["crime", "sbf", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx", "death-markets", "sbf-trial"]
0.5
1720133045181
1687004920515
0.1272496296360508
lmVg2Qz7enZAz1ahhc56
{"NO": 931.1533365206506, "YES": 1357.8106804246415}
0.0908992851314747
will-sbf-be-dead-before-the-end-of-28a1a3c79bb2
2542.3413298388614
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2025?
1767196740000
IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2
cpmm-1
0
10.028021827120124
False
basic
public
1670335344244
morewings
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2025-12-31.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.1958679227403048, "platformFee": 0.1958679227403048, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
morewings
1715148379293
0
https://firebasestorage.…302-97eda00b46ea
33
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ef-95c4ff020675
27
[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1670335367823}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "userId": "IaG9fHfTJhS8dz5dTeaD3FoGXgz2", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1670335366432}, {"name": "Cryptocurre...
["ftx", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "crime", "death-markets"]
0.5
1715148376057
1670632571439