p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZKuHK0Z9gaBuhWNAmr4n | who-runs-qualy-the-lightbulb-qualyt-630c821031eb | 1311 | Who runs Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe) on twitter? v2 | 1691650740000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.677136665612711 | True | play | MKT | public | 1670413127458 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who comes up with the tweets?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves if at any time I become 95% confident that we know all the people who generate the ideas for the account.", "type": "text"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1692887873409 | 740.0000000000002 | NathanpmYoung | 1691643449795 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1a175c8e7c05", "prob": 0.01639449079531314, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.16163039079618838, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.697193089247198, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZKuHK0Z9gaBuhWNAmr4n", "createdTime": 1670413127737, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 3 | 10 | [{"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1670413127631}] | ["qualy-the-lightbulb"] | 0.10696544583391449 | 1691643449637 | 1674964845915 | {"05529a12bc05": 5, "73cbd82c37e1": 45, "7fc746e95d7d": 50} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8228288989500335 | gjO13TjcgLoJzWIfBbog | {"NO": 7018.4579110030045, "YES": 375.0718871472229} | 1 | will-the-us-supreme-court-rule-in-f | 7016.2210865294655 | Will the US Supreme Court rule in favor of Lorie Smith, the "web designer who opposes same-sex marriage", in the case 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis? | 1688142055354 | A6omDpe59ueNOlyqCgYhgbCL05I2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2943670800188171 | 1.3512061418945613 | True | play | YES | public | 1670413800654 | octothorpe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if the Supreme Court reverses or vacates the lower court's decision in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "303 Creative LLC v. Elenis", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (", "type": "text"}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688142055354 | 670 | octothorpe | 1688138373144 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6tbDKXAhRdj3ZSPc-7TND1_UeF-7xC_S1mdQ1V=s96-c | 1 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "A6omDpe59ueNOlyqCgYhgbCL05I2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670414501779}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "A6omDpe59ueNOlyqCgYhgbCL05I2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1670413800851}, {"name": "US Poli... | ["scotus", "politics-default", "us-politics", "supreme-court"] | 0.13427668245854782 | 0.5 | 1688138371941 | 1687896626409 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16478699603101502 | lloXGALcRMxv3UW19Rz1 | {"NO": 918.5269558261446, "YES": 1277.0189514561382} | 0.12427605979467107 | will-i-have-a-research-position-at-525b55a470d4 | 584.4581378924083 | Will I have a research position at Conjecture (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025? | 1767225540000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.851542843556064 | False | basic | public | 1670414102126 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/will-i-have-a-research-position-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/will-i-have-a-research-positio... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32764216448643546, "platformFee": 0.32764216448643546, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Alana | 1714401517977 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670415462734}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670415468484}] | ["personal-goals", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1714401514536 | 1672000555919 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08800000000000001 | lTnsQpPuJqtiDyXx7g36 | {"NO": 247.0746306303223, "YES": 282.43427752690786} | 0.07784033683358985 | content-warning-violence-how-many-t | 67.56572247309217 | CONTENT WARNING (Violence) ⚠️ How many transgender or gender non-conforming people will have been fatally shot or killed by other violent means in the US in 2022? | 1670418050708 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.194283386236648 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670416645674 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.hrc.org/resources/fatal-violence-against-the-transgender-and-gender-non-conforming-community-in-2021", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.hrc.org/resources/fatal-violence-against-the-transgender-an... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670418207079 | 250 | Alana | 1670418041828 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1670416645998}] | ["lgbtqia"] | 0.088 | 1670417930498 | 1670418038707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5329910705991183 | hM2MyiLz349BDjyAyb96 | {"NO": 75.09993216854852, "YES": 2771.3078563467734} | 0 | will-someone-debate-destiny-on-what | 5525.547089305509 | Will someone debate Destiny on what he said about Vaush yesterday? That he's no different from a nazi and wishes he would die from an earlobe infection. | 1672559940000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6641814076493016 | True | play | NO | public | 1670419264418 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a debate. Not just a convo. Contention is key.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672560229102 | 570 | johnleoks | 1710218595158 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1 | 29 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672558351327 | 1670856954336 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15763881210277964 | 6kykiCFUmL7Zv2NyRjxw | {"NO": 885.3372176503274, "YES": 1534.789921353098} | 0.09743258768452508 | will-the-us-allow-phone-calls-durin | 948.9159905762943 | Will the US allow phone calls during domestic flights by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.911865399927681 | False | basic | public | 1670420178097 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It just happened in the EU apparently. Will the US follow suit?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1699344935803 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1670420178527}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1699344935658 | 1687364685006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13898848523331864 | OWsHTcsZ48hLLiJKOMvP | {"NO": 281.3931608241774, "YES": 2029.369824825035} | 0 | will-mark-zuckerberg-publicly-admit | 2032.8558515111665 | Will Mark Zuckerberg Publicly Admit that Metaverse was a Mistake by End of 2023? | 1704085140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2436575936584777 | True | play | NO | public | 1670421370532 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704088677739 | 390 | AmmonLam | 1704088678248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Metaverse", "slug": "metaverse", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "8Kkb6qpko5pIhN4UEbhS", "createdTime": 1670452802422}, {"name": "Meta (Facebook)", "slug": "meta-facebook", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "pOFiVhTtERxjJVbhKNiC", "createdTime": 1670452812793}, {"name"... | ["metaverse", "meta-facebook", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704076710763 | 1670421400363 | 0.02 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4776366108998076 | ZAvugJQLXguAl6iV4DQW | {"NO": 105.18835152433945, "YES": 156.92806478705546} | 0 | boyzsteven2023 | 125.66542113994018 | 前Boy’z成員張致恆Steven同雯雯會唔會2023年底前正式離婚? | 1704085140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.34272472127774 | True | play | NO | public | 1670421576375 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES”: 2023年底前正式離婚", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NO”:2023年底前還未離婚", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704088695093 | 130 | AmmonLam | 1704088695541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Hong Kong", "slug": "hong-kong", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "3nuaLSSVqgEh1wlCXYxs", "createdTime": 1670421576584}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737205744}, {"nam... | ["hong-kong", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1694559660904 | 1670421645533 | 0.38 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48162273900527536 | QHkylmluST9L59jj9krS | {"NO": 161.67475335478952, "YES": 174.88645616791922} | 0 | will-i-watch-all-the-bilinear-forms | 140 | Will I watch all the bilinear forms - spectral theorem lectures by the end of today? | 1670457540000 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8721562904440128 | True | play | NO | public | 1670422040309 | Kaivu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "24-29", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670469701881 | 170 | Kaivu | 1670469688958 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1670422041056}] | ["mathematics"] | 0.5 | 1670449462771 | 1670469685712 | 0.46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44332419430171494 | PTsIrQjbwjedJjLSxqCA | {"NO": 961.0393438622665, "YES": 191.337574064116} | 1 | will-will-ai-outcompete-best-humans | 3099.2217206272758 | Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its description? | 1704067140000 | Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9785628652044772 | True | play | YES | public | 1670422238178 | dp | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/PeterHro%C5%A1%C5%A1o/will-ai-outcompete-best-humans-in-c-c91105439712", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/PeterHro%C5%A1%C5%A1o/will-ai-outcompete-best-humans-in-c-c9110... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704223494910 | 510 | dp | 1704405058922 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670422238989}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128568162}] | ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704065362842 | 1704405058317 | 0.8 | Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wygr7L1pwjdC9vVQa6uX | following-matt-lucas-stepping-down | 760 | Following Matt Lucas stepping down from hosting the Great British Bake Off who will be the next new host? | 1679774934086 | 1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.718198298750618 | True | play | c9fbbe399c9b | public | 1670423707582 | Mae Polé | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63879887", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63879887", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679774934086 | 440.00000000000006 | MaePole | 1679772446244 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0abgk9-5BMcT8OLNL2P15srXmgzN8EsnSTAylaiA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "15244144d1b4", "prob": 0.04725897920604915, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.8888125037345206, "userId": "1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.918460075287935, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wygr7L1pwjdC9vVQa6uX", "createdTime": 1670423707934, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 5 | [{"name": "Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "userId": "1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1670423723530}, {"name": "Great British Bake Off", "slug": "great-british-bake-off", "userId": "1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2", "groupId": "pVKR2KM76d8lzB9aRWdD", "createdTime": 167... | ["great-british-bake-off", "celebrities", "ouro-discord"] | 1679772446075 | 1679770618196 | {"c9fbbe399c9b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3206175639666282 | edKcccXT8YPAcfcxCp8J | {"NO": 2026.0697095810724, "YES": 11.535068954791615} | 1 | will-croatia-vs-brazil-be-decided-v | 4780.538737668432 | Will Croatia vs Brazil be decided via penalty shoot-out? | 1670607417410 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4899840530886412 | True | play | YES | public | 1670425570718 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-09 8:30 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670607417410 | 530 | nickten | 1670607414872 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670425571156}, {"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-10", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZg... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"] | 0.5 | 1670607414771 | 1670425701148 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3488267246200822 | V8rKxDAifiFpRv62wnra | {"NO": 2881.622718307135, "YES": 2.132233002095159} | 1 | will-netherlands-vs-argentina-be-de | 10924.554327290669 | Will Netherlands vs Argentina be decided via penalty shoot-out? | 1670622281694 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6503005243910085 | True | play | YES | public | 1670425898828 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670622281694 | 330 | nickten | 1670622268818 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670425899193}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670622268703 | 1670622220434 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28966130755455494 | lJ7ABs34hxyy60vn51NC | {"NO": 82.61391758359332, "YES": 3506.3656679352944} | 0 | will-morocco-vs-portugal-be-decided | 4503.538534158969 | Will Morocco vs Portugal be decided via penalty shoot-out? | 1670691466443 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.777944222428262 | True | play | NO | public | 1670426049556 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 8:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670691466443 | 350 | nickten | 1670691460796 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670426049946}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670691460647 | 1670681301766 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22040494107253092 | phIAPv9IGk6837ILUqB5 | {"NO": 91.38916137686469, "YES": 852.0813839281576} | 0 | croatia-vs-brazil-will-more-than-3 | 1874.9687961842267 | Croatia vs Brazil - Will more than 3 goals be scored? | 1670607472503 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4960861424257006 | True | play | NO | public | 1670426938268 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoot-out goals do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-09 8:30 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670607472503 | 230 | nickten | 1670607405294 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670426938765}, {"name": "Brazil vs Croatia 2022-12-10", "slug": "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ppYdVNq3ADoOyZg... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"] | 0.5 | 1670607405184 | 1670427105206 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3143835556463317 | HfzTadapMl1ki5DGBNF0 | {"NO": 1171.2530231142614, "YES": 2.1565819222248592} | 1 | netherlands-vs-argentina-will-more | 2801.753304788249 | Netherlands vs Argentina - Will more than 3 goals be scored? | 1670619888205 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.402731508951441 | True | play | YES | public | 1670427118959 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoot-out goals do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670619888205 | 230 | nickten | 1670619788625 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670427119427}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670619788508 | 1670612366467 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34597027831532357 | Twz3Di8DwKyRhzG69EZK | {"NO": 45.666174810147254, "YES": 3166.517324465339} | 0 | morocco-vs-portugal-will-more-than | 3101.372825128868 | Morocco vs Portugal - Will more than 3 goals be scored? | 1670691449429 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4003117530489106 | True | play | NO | public | 1670427199191 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoot-out goals do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 8:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670691449429 | 290 | nickten | 1670691442035 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670427199571}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670691441938 | 1670427344136 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46161968554397975 | KxeGvaWAD3xQ8BJiX8Rn | {"NO": 10.076456937520106, "YES": 4290.499536748573} | 0 | england-vs-france-will-more-than-3 | 6222.802741224145 | England vs France - Will more than 3 goals be scored? | 1670706086841 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.265055250302212 | True | play | NO | public | 1670427336624 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoot-out goals do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670706086841 | 230 | nickten | 1670706076193 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670427337274}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670706074858 | 1670623987923 | 0.37 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7787706729103044 | wtigNAci8m0mxnxb9LiF | {"NO": 2591.0300162207755, "YES": 101.1075665479225} | 1 | will-another-destiny-clip-get-2k-up | 2875.8090951863387 | Will another Destiny clip get 2k+ upvotes on LSF in 2022? | 1670543845290 | 1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.15696148139389 | True | play | YES | public | 1670428668517 | Zion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if any clip posted after this market goes live recives 2k or more upvotes on LSF (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/LivestreamFail/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670543845290 | 230 | Zion | 1670542744586 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670428669001}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670542744419 | 1670542732639 | 0.92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12595553247729366 | 1ESVS0b8KHK2maLeZEBx | {"NO": 222.7202269901188, "YES": 1362.7150999178114} | 0 | will-a-hat-trick-be-scored-during-t | 4785.009503997565 | Will a hat trick be scored during the semifinal round of the World Cup? | 1671170340000 | gCiWVXK3yYgbb9HI4SZpSmBVcmp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0254671349543623 | True | play | NO | public | 1670428868248 | Djdjdndn Djdncbdud | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-15 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671199169650 | 310 | DjdjdndnDjdncbdud | 1671167691398 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyfSyVSK_7_rUpSKEXaCw03Fy_hz4OoFq2zrFge=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "gCiWVXK3yYgbb9HI4SZpSmBVcmp2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670428868627}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1671167690426 | 1671082758156 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29933475390144026 | iVDsNnamhCYcabFGJnJH | {"NO": 696.6956868574284, "YES": 4802.560913550414} | 0 | will-any-of-destinys-yt-videos-publ-e5af0bb8a689 | 13426.696661503735 | Will any of Destiny's YT videos published between the 8th and 14th of December get >300k views (by the end of the 14th of December) | 1671058800000 | fXKpQ8vggXSXL3984QqEo0CMHij2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.47748646176954734 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670429623221 | NotEnoughSpeed | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "going by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/videos", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671100361183 | 1330 | NotEnoughSpeed | 1671100525919 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 60 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "fXKpQ8vggXSXL3984QqEo0CMHij2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670429623688}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671053485083 | 1671100521085 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5352690641440434 | kPsaY3JeA0pjp2iQU0tV | {"NO": 211.66666666666669, "YES": 137.98742942363924} | 0 | will-ian-w-have-heard-about-chatgpt | 60 | Will Ian W have heard about ChatGPT when I talk to him on the evening of 12/29? | 1672449378968 | s4V31bF3M3XhGHr0JCd43tcB15m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8956947769392725 | True | play | NO | public | 1670429785703 | SirX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ian W is an intelligent, mid-40's white male who, whenever I talk with him, seems oblivious to all of the kinds of things that people talk about constantly on Twitter but rarely in MSM. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672449378968 | 170 | sirx | 1670548806129 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "s4V31bF3M3XhGHr0JCd43tcB15m1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670429786346}, {"name": "ChatGPT ", "slug": "chatgpt", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1670464193648}] | ["technology-default", "chatgpt"] | 0.5 | 1670548805852 | 1670461867718 | 0.64 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24542099415812033 | nbBj17FWYwoLFN1PZC77 | {"NO": 58.428224490597955, "YES": 17230.63576221765} | 0 | will-ye-kanye-west-use-the-word-gro | 17135.136436725632 | Will Ye (Kanye West) use the word "Groyper" in his next album | 1707615909220 | QdxsRdrU5bhj76I9Rn7acZRmAXU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5479297295498506 | True | play | NO | public | 1670430095755 | Nicholas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves when Ye's next album is released", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1707615909220 | 350 | ANN | 1707615909673 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1NDe_98R2C-GmNK_qbvPMY9DYb5iEbl3-aZY3UjQ=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 51 | 10 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "QdxsRdrU5bhj76I9Rn7acZRmAXU2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670430104261}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1707608360245 | 1707602912178 | 0 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45000752296891045 | 62sIcshcZaELld0F8UI2 | {"NO": 201.90424426771622, "YES": 389.5679409935949} | 0.2977814119068143 | will-kevin-mccarthy-bring-a-delegat | 2078.354315354259 | Will Kevin McCarthy bring a delegation of Republicans and Democrats with him if he visits Taiwan as Speaker of the House? | 1698658273714 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3094542800558453 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670431225254 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A crew just returned after a grueling tour assembling the new station. Resolves N/A if no trip takes place. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698658273714 | 290 | BTE | 1698378050394 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1670431225436}] | ["118th-congress"] | 0.5 | 1698378050238 | 1696374077463 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2500666903848586 | U542Iwy8kgYGs2fBbbT2 | {"NO": 298.85707098393925, "YES": 310.8601311071268} | 0.2427549758000598 | if-someone-offered-you-10000-but-if | 822.7871041121891 | If someone offered you $10,000 but if you take it a random person on earth dies, would you take the $10,000? | 1672549140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5261556539134433 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670432419440 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy Yes if you would push the button", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy No if you would not push the button", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dont ask me about ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672583555493 | 310 | AmmonLam | 1670922752844 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "No resolution", "slug": "no-resolution", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "C06T5cKa32YfIZD4Jfhv", "createdTime": 1670779729114}] | ["no-resolution"] | 0.5 | 1670922752655 | 1670886859528 | 0.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22813164257729124 | ffLTfDNqYLP2iiHiIhc8 | {"NO": 1088.5787864626848, "YES": 104099.50391282875} | 0 | will-sam-altman-be-times-person-of | 297899.0739177964 | Will Sam Altman be Time's Person of the Year 2023 | 1701887080965 | ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342 | cpmm-1 | 0.04123527571282859 | -0.10082109270710493 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670434220336 | Will Howard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenAI seems to be ahead of everyone else in the LLM race at the moment, and GPT-4 is rumoured to come out early next year 👀", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Sam Altman is identified by nam... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1701887080965 | 3450 | WilliamHoward | 1701891197164 | 1.1 | 5 | 417 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670434220851}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTi... | ["technology-default", "time-person-of-the-year", "openai-crisis"] | 0.16120275596771 | 0.5 | 1701886967083 | 1701891196534 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4729395204219164 | aOiNyKJRYJYJjEsKyO0g | {"NO": 10.68569914847285, "YES": 12667.722599444318} | 0 | will-carvana-file-for-bankruptcy-be | 13476.787608820327 | Will Carvana file for bankruptcy before March 1, 2023? | 1677681884310 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 3.0501529253883497 | True | play | NO | public | 1670434479308 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Carvana shares tank as bankruptcy concerns grow for used car retailer\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/carvana-shares-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677681884310 | 390 | jack | 1677681878646 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1670434479785}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1677681877469 | 1677654744780 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17968775736246673 | QjqFK8KAfdice3uOMOtO | {"NO": 241.73807251167634, "YES": 1226.953204366021} | 0 | for-every-dollar-of-profit-i-make-o | 3721.4251380161913 | For every dollar of profit I make on this market, I'll donate two dollar to one of the charity in the comment | 1673033299427 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5952092210603381 | True | play | NO | public | 1670435849601 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to hold a bunch of limit order No at 0.50, and I plan to resolve this market to No.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Feel free to comment which charity I should donate to", "type": "text"}, {"type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673033299427 | 370 | AmmonLam | 1714075134737 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1 | 19 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670435850567}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "created... | ["effective-altruism", "manifold-for-charity", "nonpredictive"] | 0.5 | False | 1673031237082 | 1673040030443 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37621904570316356 | fZldKzVeXEjF2bELBXCu | {"NO": 80.24420994954106, "YES": 171.5909167117554} | 0.21999999999999995 | will-elizabeth-prelogar-be-a-justic | 125.85520088435268 | Will Elizabeth Prelogar be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States? | 32503711200000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670435850620 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.498001805406602e-16, "week": -2.498001805406602e-16, "month": -2.498001805406602e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 110 | AndrewG | 1689170673042 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670435850962}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.08982283456489462 | 0.5 | 1689170672901 | 1670435866353 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18791415902100417 | kIV5reLdIlA1pzoTPO6x | {"NO": 499.1909340211839, "YES": 4098.409775210039} | 0 | will-tether-usdt-trade-under-07-in | 5943.0778423636975 | Will Tether (USDT) ever trade under 0.7 in 2023? | 1704063540000 | QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9642262833253454 | True | play | NO | public | 1670435867184 | crystal ball | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Follow-up to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/duck/will-tether-usdt-ever-trade-under-0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/duck/will-tether-usdt-ever-trade-under-0", "class"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704074307555 | 770 | duck | 1704074307986 | 0.2 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1670435867504}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "crea... | ["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11717932352784337 | 0.5 | 1702845792089 | 1678700259747 | 0.03 | QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OMMq5VQJj9Q9pdKItLue | planecrashrot13-jung-jnf-gur-sbhegu | 1851.6254728487916 | In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail? | 1735775940000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670435889315 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question deciphered: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "What was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at the most prec... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3953446248552313, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1259.9999999999998 | Tetraspace | 1717999249234 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5a0a7b3d41bc", "prob": 0.0005193848578081873, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.012505695693235452, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.065392427886444, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OMMq5VQJj9Q9pdKItLue", "createdTime": 1670435889806, "probChanges": {"day": -0.99177... | 18 | 22 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1670435889668}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "YzFcrFcPNmbttDraQ2QWF9B23D12", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1670453711066}] | ["glowfic", "planecrash"] | 1717999209345 | 1717999248059 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7awWgC3rufxhZtuszeFS | quien-sera-elegido-como-el-proximo | 160.69278231043987 | Quien será elegido como el próximo director del departamento de matemática aplicada de la universidad de Costa Rica | 1670943420000 | M167O2jUvRaxecC5Qev39El6JSv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.83452097449651 | True | play | db38acea2d79 | public | 1670435927678 | Allan Lacy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-13 8:57 am", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-13 8:57 am", "type": "text"}]}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670943566100 | 420.00000000000006 | AllanLacy | 1670457419173 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d5829f56f968", "prob": 0.37183706179863657, "text": "Allan Lacy", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.91783573641895, "userId": "M167O2jUvRaxecC5Qev39El6JSv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 141.76659531651237, "textFts": "'allan':1 'laci':2", "contractId": "7awWgC3rufxhZtuszeFS", "createdTime": 1670435927678, "probChanges... | 5 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "M167O2jUvRaxecC5Qev39El6JSv1", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1670435928413}, {"name": "Costa Rica", "slug": "costa-rica", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "q78SkrHCcEe47gwGIXc2", "createdTime": 1670437848791}] | ["mathematics", "costa-rica"] | 1670457419050 | 1670435984637 | {"db38acea2d79": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6572022382925828 | jGdlezOiR3OCuRiImQir | {"NO": 605.5554968184172, "YES": 1232.3381019598064} | 0.48508662688967014 | will-zelenskyy-be-reelected-as-pres | 2107.1776685825007 | Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election? | 1735689540000 | rU1IPes55iTVrUuAMPGgaAhqnB43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.496426301893148 | False | basic | public | 1670435979157 | Stan Pinsent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next election is scheduled to be 2024. This bet applies to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "next", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " election (even if is a \"snap\" election or a postponed one).", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04083041882026922} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.521540682741565, "platformFee": 2.45379832011999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StanPinsent | 1719627450090 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1S_JjPM8WFt7pHyN-3VTblxQ1IGtQopo0hl0vOhQ=s96-c | 3 | 43 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "rU1IPes55iTVrUuAMPGgaAhqnB43", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670435979754}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1719627446959 | 1678088233265 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oyz6rYHipMtYGdaEDZ2g | who-will-be-the-next-justice-confir | 265.94393991931145 | Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States? | 32503711200000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670435991806 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.34499870491500123, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 699.9999999999999 | AndrewG | 1716430424326 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 1 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c0612572b628", "prob": 0.40266887042999305, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.894265756109267, "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.995183094995525, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Oyz6rYHipMtYGdaEDZ2g", "createdTime": 1670435992439, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 7 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670435992167}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1670436042808}, {"name": "Anci... | ["us-politics", "magaland", "ancient-markets"] | 1716430420730 | 1705912841656 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3944718324349243 | 5fwUMjxFoMjG9STfsuOG | {"NO": 84.4523670167565, "YES": 155.00000000000003} | 0 | will-i-exercise-daily-until-jan-1 | 45 | Will I exercise daily until Jan 1? | 1672617540000 | pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8025343152098756 | True | play | NO | public | 1670436335228 | Cedar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.beeminder.com/cedar_ren/daily_exercise", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.beeminder.com/cedar_ren/daily_exercise", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676642590823 | 110 | Cedar | 1675238494129 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670436336156}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1672578734193 | 1675238490701 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4785083752885096 | PSLE7YvCKOPwWtnhXAY9 | {"NO": 1023.8292345606416, "YES": 941.7440215384278} | 0.49938800778159265 | will-celsius-successfully-give-out | 414.79269910083855 | Will Celsius successfully give out $2.8 Million bonuses to their staff? | 4133998740000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.648593954230439 | False | basic | public | 1670436473819 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://bitcoinist.com/celsius-to-release-2-8-m-in-bonuses/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://bitcoinist.com/celsius-to-release-2-8-m-in-bonuses/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1710935815738 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1670436474559}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703125479200}] | ["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1710935812202 | 1703669767178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2NRcN1b4RsDPeYRH6m0U | when-will-be-the-next-justice-confi | 340.78219119425825 | When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States? | 4291768740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1670437026369 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Year ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4372892356068497, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1718681439338 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bfa4d7c79522", "prob": 0.10681252662339902, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.31450760440217, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 153.14953489480484, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2NRcN1b4RsDPeYRH6m0U", "createdTime": 1670437027164, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8804499018... | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670437027028}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864777}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1718681436195 | 1670437044587 | False | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7119861776375446 | GXfrMJxo4FUF8KBbYPY0 | {"NO": 193.8165724829644, "YES": 151.30273899215132} | 0 | will-the-las-vegas-raiders-beat-the | 685.272709967331 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night? | 1670548500000 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7616363545876346 | True | play | NO | public | 1670437246617 | BCG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Rams are at home. The Raiders are favored by 5.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670560040611 | 170 | BruceGrugett | 1670534494289 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670437246941}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1670534494101 | 1670437414563 | 0.76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25512591445699906 | vWaVx4EG9BRp8FDOOxy8 | {"NO": 353.92187626520194, "YES": 1825.9521447803268} | 0 | will-aella-quit-manifold-for-at-lea | 2933.1890308386296 | Will Aella quit Manifold for at least 3 months by the end of 2023? | 1704319451559 | tC6xAhBnywTTpYlyskxCW2RxrMJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.046977503169151 | True | play | NO | public | 1670437506365 | squirrelfish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as Yes if the Aella account is completely inactive on Manifold for 3 consecutive months by the end of 2023. It also counts if the quitting period starts in 2023 and finishes in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704319451559 | 610 | squirrelfish | 1704319452362 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0tfD3XqdXE3iIKHF275TeMXB30pQdIIi8xaRtS=s96-c | 0 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 11 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tC6xAhBnywTTpYlyskxCW2RxrMJ3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670437506811}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "c... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "aella"] | 0.5 | 1704061199107 | 1680935858478 | False | 0.06 | tC6xAhBnywTTpYlyskxCW2RxrMJ3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
znM4JwvN4KSY4myME7cP | which-company-will-create-agi-first | 2049.279600704044 | Which company will create AGI first? | 2082772740000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.185125122835117 | False | basic | public | 1670440392892 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.910634869527794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1600 | FranklinBaldo | 1720030406449 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 2 | 43 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e2b32155ad8", "prob": 0.060000000000005646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.28195012867516256, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.417218682577105, "textFts": "", "contractId": "znM4JwvN4KSY4myME7cP", "createdTime": 1670440393821, "probChanges": {"day": 0.057617712... | 18 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670455789262}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670440393684}, {"name": "Business", ... | ["technology-default", "ai", "business"] | 0.13733130486759654 | 1720030401356 | 1700473487456 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25924715423902556 | NLWZjq9a2mOOrTZrLjlT | {"NO": 340.0963949029218, "YES": 182.74305892936488} | 0.4 | how-many-players-will-play-pioneer | 150 | How Many Players Will Play Pioneer on 12/7? | 1670475540000 | 3DHJ17lNZiScuSbLAvStYIG4k4f1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5834895864116942 | True | play | MKT | public | 1670440703346 | Mark Blower | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will count the total number of participating players for Pioneer upon time of the first round firing, or the event not starting on time", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670477446523 | 290 | MarkBlower | 1670455773916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6QiX0rUry8m7EOrCJlDCEEeJ-YrcN72iPaz1lE=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Lunchle 2", "slug": "lunchle-2", "userId": "3DHJ17lNZiScuSbLAvStYIG4k4f1", "groupId": "4RlYuO6Zu7ZbjfulJxTy", "createdTime": 1670440703529}] | ["lunchle-2"] | 0.25 | 1670455773747 | 1670440754765 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20948281581071912 | Evo3N8m8JCVtr8hVlIoq | {"NO": 444.80753223726396, "YES": 516.2203488623193} | 0.1858904051685931 | do-we-have-agi-now | 3169.3555957128146 | Do we have AGI now? [Experimental] | 1677872915048 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1920488196888828 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670440748512 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A in 2050.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 11, 2:32pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Do we have AGI now?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Do we have AGI now? [Experimenta... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677872915048 | 490 | FranklinBaldo | 1677872901488 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 2 | 25 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670553137502}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1670781836833}] | ["selfresolving", "experimental"] | 0.5 | 1673237201754 | 1677872892677 | 0.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1047060788800499 | DZlSkxrMl1iaFykf8edW | {"NO": 925.2802140804907, "YES": 1451.9036471926383} | 0.06936213587526284 | will-bitcoin-become-proof-of-stake | 1691.0547897963502 | Will Bitcoin become Proof of Stake before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.195322981632703 | False | basic | public | 1670441555130 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ethereum's switch to Proof of Stake saves as much electricity as entire Ireland uses. Would Bitcoin make the switch as well", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://interestingengineering.com/i... | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1708098649196 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 0 | 32 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670441555782}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1708098649051 | 1670446395730 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09942907044804712 | Yg6dhoHPl0BLuLzqYUKQ | {"NO": 247.798290012233, "YES": 591.4072527979177} | 0.04421477574681564 | when-will-pedro-castillo-stop-being | 403 | When will Pedro Castillo stop being in power of Peru? | 1670443256686 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.583014592436265 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670441696392 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fraction of the year. Example: if he leaves on 30th decebember 2023 it resolves to 2023.99.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by the end of 2030 he still is president , than market resolve to 2031."... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670443256686 | 310 | FranklinBaldo | 1710456579419 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.10333333333334041 | 1670442923130 | 1670443962439 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2807703985448167 | tK8CBp0TmpEIdbTzvGLr | {"NO": 183.33961460877975, "YES": 3844.0993487943797} | 0 | will-trump-openly-state-that-warnoc | 3487.2839744741023 | Will Trump openly state that Warnock's re-election in Georgia was invalid and due to vote fraud? | 1671083940000 | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.586105074249951 | True | play | NO | public | 1670442807059 | BRTD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Requires a clear accusation from Trump, not just a generic tantrum from him.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671084021182 | 470 | BRTD | 1671083906740 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "2022 Georgia Runoffs", "slug": "2022-georgia-runoffs", "userId": "lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2", "groupId": "TdE6khkHIRpYbjH6kYp7", "createdTime": 1670444156323}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "lnLC8qEiz0aJXDRRkYRXEPaxKpM2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime... | ["us-politics", "us-2022-midterms", "2022-georgia-runoffs", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1671083906545 | 1670442894401 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2el35rK8Fv3BCPdn0qHZ | when-will-a-volodymyr-zelenky-biopi | 3 | When will a Volodymyr Zelensky biopic starring Martin Freeman debut in theaters. | 1735718340000 | tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670443047991 | Anthony Carlino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 11:57am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "When will a Volodymyr Zelenky biopic starring Martin Freeman debut in theaters.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → When will a Volodymyr Zelensky biopic starring Martin Freem... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | AnthonyCarlino | 1684783690950 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiarrWO1IB-v4FHyWapKfNDiJb9oV1Hl1rOD5ROrw=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f3980947915a", "prob": 0.3141986363779181, "text": "before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.86288832390748, "userId": "tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.46062634459285, "textFts": "'2025':2", "contractId": "2el35rK8Fv3BCPdn0qHZ", "createdTime": 1670443047991, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670443048512}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737208424}] | ["politics-default", "ancient-markets"] | 1684783690766 | 1670459688551 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7540335349105409 | Bp4YPYp5Ach5hCaxFizR | {"NO": 1619.024184379575, "YES": 230.87067670108607} | 1 | will-pedro-castillo-be-imprisoned-f | 1983.8076687085936 | Will Pedro Castillo be imprisoned for attempting to dissolve the Peruvian congress? | 1711987200000 | mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.467467746358817 | True | play | YES | public | 1670443446164 | Andrew Hartman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of making this market, el Presidente is reportedly in custody of the police. He has already been impeached by the Congress he attempted to dissolve, but will he face a prison sentence?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBrea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.044448271885539126} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711993281771 | 390 | AndrewHartman | 1711987200000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1670443454010}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670443446916}, {"name": "L... | ["politics-default", "world-default", "law-order"] | 0.5 | 1711973284012 | 1710371694370 | 0.96 | mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qZD5CUq8sSqRsf6Uih9N | when-will-pedro-castillo-stop-being-81bd465c8906 | 691 | When will Pedro Castillo stop being president of Peru? | 1670449321181 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.676376651151053 | True | play | 9d961605c1d8 | public | 1670443594928 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670449321181 | 520 | FranklinBaldo | 1710456605093 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9d961605c1d8", "prob": 0.9833031383549934, "text": "2022", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.41131342981176, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6012975835658066, "textFts": "'2022':1", "contractId": "qZD5CUq8sSqRsf6Uih9N", "createdTime": 1670443594928, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 8 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election"] | 1670448252300 | 1670443716154 | {"9d961605c1d8": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7453447665525359 | TirhOY8rhS9cABEY9Mal | {"NO": 868.3875972017734, "YES": 210.1457101035994} | 1 | will-mrgirls-manifesto-be-released | 4472.27673104158 | Will MrGirl's manifesto be released by [current date + 30 days]? | 1679767029861 | fICzmnJU7aT0BQWOYp1rQYnGs7d2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6747354999775301 | True | play | YES | public | 1670444186673 | mmdrvp | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[current date] = the date you are reading this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to yes when MrGirl's manifesto is released.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679767029861 | 370 | mmdrvp | 1679765514463 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "fICzmnJU7aT0BQWOYp1rQYnGs7d2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670444187126}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1679765104607 | 1679765510659 | 0.92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2081359587617584 | PHo3jfYFeUNNJM5ABtEJ | {"NO": 151.95158879968795, "YES": 5989.624914046617} | 0 | will-we-get-a-rematch-of-the-2018-f | 8492.217183396891 | Will we get a rematch of the 2018 Final (France vs. Croatia)? | 1670965753710 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4504514480150466 | True | play | NO | public | 1670447114050 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the two contestants in the final of the 2022 FIFA World Cup are France and Croatia.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670965753710 | 350 | howtodowtle | 1670965747604 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670447114433}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670965747453 | 1670869572315 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22422217590074947 | nEwz5glic11XwSAtM68a | {"NO": 56.37769510133205, "YES": 2825.352876675467} | 0 | will-we-get-a-rematch-of-the-1998-f | 4219.2462479206315 | Will we get a rematch of the 1998 Final (Brazil vs. France)? | 1670625827228 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.59478886575777 | True | play | NO | public | 1670447583973 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the two contestants in the final of the 2022 FIFA World Cup are France and Brazil.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670625827228 | 150 | howtodowtle | 1670625817962 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670447584315}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670625817847 | 1670608802553 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18747238670261915 | v9p1XHjULl12mLuddRG2 | {"NO": 973.8114413536275, "YES": 1655.172485956964} | 0.11952235156996603 | how-many-years-until-the-singularit | 4756.989843259047 | How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022) | 2498198340000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.68993361680852 | False | play | public | 1670448509661 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved when a recursively self-improving AI outpowers the combined might of human civilization. At least, I'll try my best to close it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 6:04pm: ", "type":... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1090 | Alana | 1711378005952 | 0 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670448510597}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.11677445774577244 | 0.09090909090909091 | 1711378002683 | 1670465416250 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mpWz5CPph1lMmZixQkWY | which-team-will-win-the-2022-fifa-w-73952823fc23 | 30954.591611415693 | Which team will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1671382800000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.621654003892362 | True | basic | de7f674e640c | public | 1670448731097 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just another arbitrage market. Resolves to the winning team of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671387011467 | 1880 | howtodowtle | 1671382777244 | 0 | 38 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6786dd3584a4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Brazil", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00021001050078756564, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.099894997374869, "textFts": "'brazil':1", "contractId": "mpWz5CPph1lMmZixQkWY", "createdTime": 1670448731097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 41 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1670476901166}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670476899344}, {"name": "2022 FIFA W... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "soccer", "football", "2022-world-cup-final"] | 1671382777085 | 1671207508616 | {"de7f674e640c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7709470370867253 | r4cv1qDNqClwSXQGKSwW | {"NO": 1121.9135308562886, "YES": 1396.6542898097423} | 0 | will-brazil-eliminate-croatia | 3025.7291751109938 | Will Brazil eliminate Croatia? | 1670601600000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.05016096630321221 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670450278395 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Brazil wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Croatia wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670608354927 | 1350 | Manifold | 1670601593675 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 42 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670450279016}, {"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyY... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"] | 0.5 | 1670601593519 | 1670450662781 | 0.73 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38009262534149574 | NDGXL7fFvHfiZAfNGQ3t | {"NO": 861.4173423298673, "YES": 2406.121748428786} | 0 | will-the-netherlands-eliminate-arge-b00886164a20 | 5917.942279077085 | Will the Netherlands eliminate Argentina? | 1670616000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.06568758729453417 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670450394760 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = the Netherlands wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Argentina wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next roun... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670623558970 | 1310 | Manifold | 1670615911731 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 39 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670450395022}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670615911572 | 1670457893743 | 0.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3120918611376282 | PeAy9wpC36FqcHE9As0E | {"NO": 1086.343292002429, "YES": 1149.9947763242112} | 1 | will-morocco-eliminate-portugal | 972.2653819136514 | Will Morocco eliminate Portugal? | 1670684400000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.17530498486666224 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670450600433 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Morocco wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Portugal wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670864593158 | 1110 | Manifold | 1670710840197 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670450600638}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670683387741 | 1670710837801 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3739258597372296 | SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | {"NO": 11854.950472288765, "YES": 4720.284986942408} | 0.6000000000000004 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | 2388405.991089642 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | 1728511200000 | QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2 | cpmm-1 | 0.24049852171312164 | 0.42213216059337466 | False | basic | public | 1670450667281 | crystal ball | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "as reported by the BBC", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.02449247185539949, "week": 0.013341300795678301, "month": 0.10269222977752118} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5843.701795700145, "platformFee": 5843.701795700145, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1736.2845826303085 | 8615 | duck | 1720246645708 | 7.5 | 24 | 2267 | 16 | 4 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴 Trump... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-matt-yglesias-predictions"] | 0.2835305504753927 | 0.5 | 1720246642429 | 1720014454764 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47399434362746085 | AEf3fCYLiRxr3Bvth2i2 | {"NO": 1636.7233367917697, "YES": 3441.3972297732444} | 0 | will-england-eliminate-france | 52666.16058403514 | Will England eliminate France? | 1670702400000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.12511524882551184 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670451015772 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = England wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = France wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670864549246 | 2350 | Manifold | 1714075116913 | 0 | 94 | 0 | 1 | 91 | [{"name": "FIFA 2022: England vs France", "slug": "fifa-2022-england-vs-france", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5xWdp0uyszieheBUITkc", "createdTime": 1670747348063}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFS... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-england-vs-france", "nonpredictive"] | 0.5 | False | 1670702371350 | 1670864424171 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8332257342904157 | cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c | {"NO": 13102.766291230937, "YES": 16047.640009225786} | 0.8031224096064669 | instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within | 548405.5659100234 | Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027? | 1830326340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0.23655989813199024 | 1.6597967043761592 | False | plus | public | 1670451167814 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By 2027-12-31, will we be able to synthesize basically any photo from a text description and sample images of people we want in the photo?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.016877590393533204, "month": 0.02312240960646683} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 317.1575509065295, "platformFee": 167.24947368724395, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 15595 | dreev | 1720085562084 | 6.1 | 11 | 391 | 2 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fz3UfriIde7.15?alt=media&token=d46f7ce2-a215-4eb4-9fc7-8b344b0491a9 | 72 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670451168040}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670451464141}, {"nam... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "showcase", "ai-media-creation"] | 0.35334305004801037 | 0.5 | 1720085558881 | 1718407003456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9024598374764238 | oyoWdbj6jbcveZffdTla | {"NO": 4031.1190190375196, "YES": 130.57232569984546} | 1 | will-marc-tessierlavigne-not-be-pre | 5550.325202823448 | By the end of 2023, will Marc Tessier-Lavigne no longer be president of Stanford and/or announce intent to resign? | 1697725159123 | HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.468348847521285 | True | play | YES | public | 1670451880370 | Theodore Ehrenborg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He is currently the president of Stanford, but he has been accused of faking images in scientific papers or not noticing that someone on his team faking images.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697725159123 | 230 | TheodoreEhrenborg | 1691953326102 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Scandal Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1670451880596}, {"name": "Stanford", "slug": "stanford", "groupId": "5d3e362a-d2e6-4edc-9f33-b4bc449d07ee", "createdTime": 1689364144831}] | ["scandal-markets", "stanford"] | 0.5 | 1691953325930 | 1689788887467 | False | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 671Xum9pOflugVoPNexP | {"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100} | 0.2000000000000001 | will-the-autumn-view-have-over-60-m | 50 | Will The Autumn View have over 50 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year? | 1670473328625 | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.605170185988092 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670452628378 | BRTD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670473328625 | 50 | BRTD | 1670452927372 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452629127}] | ["music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.5 | 1670452927199 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3575403291845065 | 5rIB5Vcf83gfEczXoywq | {"NO": 29.96620706303993, "YES": 537.3292688518102} | 0 | will-destiny-stream-for-at-least-5h | 686.3759273485491 | Will Destiny stream for at least 5h "today"? | 1670467481739 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3692638993962785 | True | play | NO | public | 1670452630431 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = stream begins on December 7th, 2022 (EST) and lasts at least 5h. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670467481739 | 119 | nickten | 1670467481112 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670452631174}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670467480920 | 1670456762916 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | UDCX2pxxCLxPiJQTvurK | {"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100} | 0.2000000000000001 | will-the-autumn-view-have-over-100 | 50 | Will The Autumn View have over 100 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year? | 1670473319431 | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.605170185988092 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670452733048 | BRTD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670473319431 | 50 | BRTD | 1670452941414 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452733823}] | ["music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.5 | 1670452941236 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | sOaYA6CjTIWlzVk0uT91 | {"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100} | 0.2000000000000001 | will-the-autumn-view-have-over-75-m | 50 | Will The Autumn View have over 75 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year? | 1670473324537 | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.605170185988092 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670452738004 | BRTD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670473324537 | 50 | BRTD | 1711598014365 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452738758}] | ["music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.5 | 1670452934898 | 1711598013681 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QD1mKXThO9bplZcUYnyN | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-bra-a88c0ce11214 | 160.83784720778468 | Who will be Man of the Match in Brazil vs Croatia? | 1670601600000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.8003807142257395 | True | play | 6be786e555c1 | public | 1670453929869 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670623677931 | 1159.9999999999998 | Manifold | 1670601573832 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c98eb8c7a1c4", "prob": 0.16637694572380712, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.722040383429791, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.659538343640847, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QD1mKXThO9bplZcUYnyN", "createdTime": 1670453930199, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670453930085}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"] | 1670601573664 | {"6be786e555c1": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fPOz9zkkwX2GSCNxEgsa | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-the-5241d79a9b88 | 210 | Who will be Man of the Match in the Netherlands vs Argentina? | 1670616000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.76442857219273 | True | play | 53a3ec508fe6 | public | 1670453998954 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670867364860 | 1079.9999999999998 | Manifold | 1670624095936 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e538de7665cc", "prob": 0.10405827263267431, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2529412704850245, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.397824338876056, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fPOz9zkkwX2GSCNxEgsa", "createdTime": 1670453999392, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670453999268}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1670615801004 | 1670624090476 | {"53a3ec508fe6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
z184VdJ3cqk4eYasQJIp | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-mor | 404.61298202716733 | Who will be Man of the Match in Morocco vs Portugal? | 1670688000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.712685192680542 | True | play | 52416b50ec5 | public | 1670454072240 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670867332198 | 1319.9999999999998 | Manifold | 1670687920978 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0362d96fa9a", "prob": 0.04209709095359438, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.549114485000604, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.49488624193606, "textFts": "", "contractId": "z184VdJ3cqk4eYasQJIp", "createdTime": 1670454072770, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670454072534}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1670687920866 | 1670681332199 | {"52416b50ec5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kQRnYVvgQzcQaKOJUT0v | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-eng-b3b33c0ee202 | 381.06030296847445 | Who will be Man of the Match in England vs France? | 1670702400000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.718424308222279 | True | play | 4095484fc4e0 | public | 1670454108899 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670867298322 | 1600 | Manifold | 1670716592581 | 0 | 23 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "80bb37b08250", "prob": 0.04747759930050542, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6359848607217614, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.759487321777385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kQRnYVvgQzcQaKOJUT0v", "createdTime": 1670454109253, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670454109134}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1670700309323 | 1670716589534 | {"4095484fc4e0": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5602664646612274 | 3Qf0fSv8enCqbWUMv7GE | {"NO": 161.66666666666669, "YES": 107.77943769615341} | 0 | will-i-review-all-of-the-algebra-le | 50 | Will I review all of the algebra lecture notes before Friday 6pm? | 1670630400000 | LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.35217460537105 | True | play | NO | public | 1670454689672 | Eleni Shor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if I review all of the lecture notes corresponding to the content of Exam 2 of 18.701 (Algebra I at MIT). These are lecture notes 17–23 (group actions, conjugacy classes, Sylow theorems), 24–29 (bilinear forms, matrix group... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670700147642 | 130 | eleni | 1670557826137 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feleni%2FUu99sBA4Tw.30?alt=media&token=d23604f3-c622-4a68-bde6-e3cbca5b2acb | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1670454690413}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "LjxyGTX5eEbxHCwZT2DGFjHXlHh1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670454698479}] | ["mathematics", "personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1670557826008 | 1670471042576 | 0.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2583338685641861 | o9fBaTkUVqjdezQYC0bW | {"NO": 655.3178969723401, "YES": 752.3680355868668} | 0 | will-neymar-score-from-a-penalty-du | 160.23042873147165 | Will Neymar score from a penalty during the Quarterfinals? | 1670601600000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7180070209428049 | True | play | NO | public | 1670454745755 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is for the Brazil vs Croatia Quarterfinals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves yes if he scores directly from a penalty kick at any point in the match, including if it is from a penalty shootout... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670608443857 | 690 | Manifold | 1670608480408 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670457410844}, {"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyY... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"] | 0.5 | 1670601211485 | 1670608478675 | 0.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4668685115092316 | OO1vKxPgRgFOXo0thmxL | {"NO": 605.69434402412, "YES": 18.96735894525284} | 1 | will-destiny-stream-later-today-up | 1108.5812873828618 | Will Destiny Stream later today ( Up to 12 pm CST) Copium | 1670461033138 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7713478692164997 | True | play | YES | public | 1670454781825 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 5:13pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Destiny Stream later today up to (12 pm CST) Copium", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Destiny Stream later today ( Up to 12 pm CST) Copium", "type": "text"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670461037795 | 270 | PryingMind | 1670461031264 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670454782477}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670461031145 | 0.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.624214605483642 | M7c9gFpFrRaSAD86qebe | {"NO": 820.6584332295906, "YES": 618.2624617011629} | 1 | will-messi-score-before-depay | 203.65591135990746 | Will Messi score before Depay? | 1670616000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.583159254252794 | True | play | YES | public | 1670455356116 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is for Argentina vs the Netherlands Quarterfinals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Messi, who plays for Argentina, has never scored against the Netherlands even though he has played against them at tw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670623586544 | 690 | Manifold | 1670615981027 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670455356524}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670615980881 | 0.69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13806484791695092 | lZA5TIgwbFucuZezIVUA | {"NO": 984.9891966831176, "YES": 964.1151696345837} | 0.14063369802717474 | will-ukraine-gain-control-of-any-pa | 331.1365575814099 | Will Ukraine gain control of any parts of Russian pre-2014 territory by 2025? | 1735700400000 | 4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.921657543599977 | False | basic | public | 1670455687462 | Gustavo Mafra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russia appears to be prepping for invasion by Ukraine", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/dec/7/british-officials-russia-appears-be-prepping-invas/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": -0.003686654280271706, "week": -0.003686654280271706, "month": 0.020374137292706665} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.965851089706304, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 25 | 1000 | GustavoMafra | 1720191115567 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1671064761289}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671064758844}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukra... | ["world-default", "ukraine", "russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1720191112478 | 1718111078127 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29856296223921214 | mIlhe3qdlIfUxmOXEV79 | {"NO": 85.94012466353534, "YES": 1936.2563303920208} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-users-to-filter | 1753.6445178465085 | Will Manifold allow users to filter out self-created markets when viewing profit? | 1704095940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6565098478019817 | True | play | NO | public | 1670455732099 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When creating a market, you often have an opportunity to get quick profit by making the first \"low-hanging fruit\" bet. Providing the option to filter out self-created markets from users' profit graphs would help to filter out some of that noise. ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704132077677 | 230 | CarsonGale | 1704132078007 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670455732483}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132810034}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704085926675 | 1670476286997 | 0.02 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1873225163490706 | BIpG71dAIYXIlmc49kdT | {"NO": 1024.5789354147535, "YES": 550.1085137343362} | 0 | will-moroccos-goalkeeper-save-a-pen | 417.7582764902194 | Will Morocco's goalkeeper save a penalty vs Portugal? | 1670688000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7026704509799568 | True | play | NO | public | 1670455796346 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yassine Bounou was Morocco's player of the match in the round of 16 against Spain after saving multiple penalties.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will he do it again against Portugal in their upcoming Qua... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670867113440 | 930 | Manifold | 1670771547578 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670455796551}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670687543771 | 1670771543507 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20609561217854255 | 1tJI0SzQBQColDzgf91I | {"NO": 594.81936394026, "YES": 4348.182813942541} | 0.03429435327479588 | will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45 | 5565.933033739953 | Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026? | 1798779540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 6.156383674493296e-16 | 10.134014191637636 | False | basic | public | 1670458000865 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If NASA announces that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon before December 31, 2025, then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": 2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1708556968713 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1 | 46 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing", "slug": "artemis-3", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "JFSueHSoflV6QCBPjC3l", "createdTime": 1670458001085}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917858}] | ["artemis-3", "space"] | 0.11180858104554842 | 0.5 | 1708556968569 | 1698324771681 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42133149329993946 | qhdnIFvFY9ZNd9lJNjFF | {"NO": 929.8679800394391, "YES": 1179.17720466853} | 0 | will-england-or-france-keep-a-clean | 1069.5994308437726 | Will either England or France keep a clean sheet? | 1670702400000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3830977445827975 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670458108185 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France plays vs England this Saturday in the Fifa Worldcup Quarterfinals.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A clean sheet means not conceding any goals. This market resolves yes if ", "type": "text"}, {"text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670867067643 | 1030 | Manifold | 1670703435082 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670458108394}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670701862528 | 1670703431865 | 0.36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.874411333024316 | c7TLrJ7f2alfIhZIleMb | {"NO": 6094.308318810486, "YES": 447.9343058708488} | 1 | will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16830-a | 8544.90035871711 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16830 at Dec 9 10pm ET? | 1670644740000 | jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4735938926102103 | True | play | YES | public | 1670458165649 | Gene Fama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670684875094 | 750 | GeneFama | 1670644020586 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c | 1 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670458166298}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1670644020419 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34803311520689656 | YzebJCOo6kbQdWeuRjZF | {"NO": 31.588468490533785, "YES": 816.6548573255955} | 0 | will-blachowicz-defeat-ankalaev-ufc | 1278.2446610855961 | Will Blachowicz defeat Ankalaev @ UFC 282 ? | 1670739202328 | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.277039023975562 | True | play | NO | public | 1670460869922 | nickten 💙💦🐬 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JAN BŁACHOWICZ vs MAGOMED ANKALAEV", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-282", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-282", "class": null,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670739202328 | 141 | nickten | 1670739069082 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670460870374}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1670739068928 | 1670739047677 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4449517641503887 | 4KtkoB2zNhcJYEUfZmrK | {"NO": 11040.296951276187, "YES": 216.26813002998097} | 1 | will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-man-i | 28812.347344471906 | Will Elon Musk be the richest man in the world in the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | cpmm-1 | 0.09520161990575499 | 0.7050188056870756 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670462211709 | Shaked Koplewitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as of 2023.12.31.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704090440373 | 1990 | ShakedKoplewitz | 1710451903561 | 1.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 1 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.16958475264684028 | 0.5 | 1703877543398 | 1700092727184 | False | 0.98 | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4395566877037233 | XZCgR2mMOCkmoJuFaEg9 | {"NO": 10713.593134991883, "YES": 195.93847430560777} | 1 | will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-man-i-7f9a0ec3e42e | 31030.540115243573 | Will Elon Musk be the richest man in the world in the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | cpmm-1 | 0.08717197636559348 | 0.7568947926848408 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670462807991 | Shaked Koplewitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as of 2023.12.31.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704520761989 | 1985 | ShakedKoplewitz | 1710451929889 | 1.6 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 4 | 114 | 0 | 2 | 39 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.1663530090472947 | 0.5 | 1703923205778 | 1704495644948 | False | 0.98 | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7976587605321768 | 5TWCHLqzgyAZfymTl2W9 | {"NO": 458.72275935059395, "YES": 116.374427911438} | 1 | will-i-arrive-on-time-for-my-flight | 353.77413822227703 | Will I arrive on time for my flight tomorrow? | 1670703414660 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.312339758730403 | True | play | YES | public | 1670463846125 | Garrett Baker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to ask questions. This market is made, in part, to test how efficient manifold is wrt eliciting information from the market creator which was not originally given.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670703414660 | 170 | GarrettBaker | 1670703405619 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 1670703405525 | 0.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7571553350940938 | 2fPB9ejaWoQKyzaOB9S8 | {"NO": 239.80152301187962, "YES": 498.4431976966925} | 0 | will-the-number-of-traders-on-this-b7ddad1c9d4f | 15655.792884735489 | Will the number of traders on this market be above 25? | 1670553000000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2132590093893214 | True | play | NO | public | 1670464818696 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by closing time the total number of unique active traders is above 25. Bots do count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670553151482 | 570 | Wobbles | 1710208079662 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H"}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl"}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "nonpredictive-profits", "improperly-resolved"] | 0.5 | False | 1670552997525 | 1670565645206 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7707476666176695 | 5qiUd7rY3uMM6nm7Ag4v | {"NO": 284.0408811794554, "YES": 89.66534707129316} | 1 | will-cody-celebrate-christmas-this | 206.18743280991444 | Will Cody celebrate Christmas this year? | 1672012740000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6592619380893137 | True | play | YES | public | 1670465988343 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672070932438 | 130 | ian | 1671970746869 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670465989316}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1671970746685 | 0.91 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40681530590968024 | XPhhW2P8clH1NTqdsZVj | {"NO": 116.5460392919297, "YES": 1395.3396579971234} | 0 | will-masterworks-turn-out-to-be-a-s | 2502.3415963151065 | Will Masterworks turn out to be a scam in 2023? | 1704067140000 | 1CdKZOkC0mU9GUFcIt2zEAx4UYB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.639529929894241 | True | play | NO | public | 1670467574504 | juuuulia | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Established Titles was on all the youtube channels and then turned out to be a scam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if there is a mass Youtuber exodus apologizing for being af... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704068189078 | 330 | julia | 1704068189541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgVEJMf0fhymhK1bBjBLFIrfjfD35HE0zJW0L-qrA=s96-c | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "1CdKZOkC0mU9GUFcIt2zEAx4UYB2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670469566705}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "userId": "1CdKZOkC0mU9GUFcIt2zEAx4UYB2", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1670467791959}, {"name"... | ["technology-default", "youtube", "crypto-speculation", "wall-street-bets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704066485140 | 1685115469689 | 0.05 | 1CdKZOkC0mU9GUFcIt2zEAx4UYB2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25244118144736477 | iCMAzORT40D3CHL86NKn | {"NO": 1620.5931522825822, "YES": 3229.4130836203685} | 0.1449039243565917 | will-the-github-copilot-litigation | 8701.806369432148 | Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed? | 1828155600000 | lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.950684104613874 | False | basic | public | 1670467962550 | Jeff Kaufman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A law firm has filed a class action suit against GitHub, OpenAI, and Microsoft over the GitHub Copilot code completion software: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://githubcopilotlitigation.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1975 | JeffKaufman | 1709557975961 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Od8vuN4D1xT20AJN03oeG7Gd36qcbp8ZXuiLRxA=s96-c | 10 | 121 | 0 | 99 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670467962807}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1678292212575}] | ["ai", "github"] | 0.5 | 1709557975803 | 1689259004031 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8283957853985583 | FLoPDvVBZ64mZ4hdKlco | {"NO": 1157.3398261439233, "YES": 939.6341582290955} | 0.8560285960007673 | will-open-ais-est-market-cap-be-50b | 1085.5438232416157 | Will Open AI's est. market cap be >$50B by 2030? | 1925020740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 6.156383674493296e-16 | 9.808793289902034 | False | basic | public | 1670467978581 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of now, OpenAI has yet to publish a post-money valuation figure from any of their fundraising rounds. Resolves as \"n/a\" if this is still the case by close. Resolves \"n/a\" if, per my subjective judgment, it is not possible to have any certain... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1707339203312 | 0.1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670467978978}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "cr... | ["private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"] | 0.1014463363523729 | 0.5 | 1707339203138 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6188859702928171 | JThQX3hfV0YUp1R96hWd | {"NO": 9063.82258930646, "YES": 325.9694784157539} | 1 | will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp | 55811.576112659204 | Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2023? | 1699518197725 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7197868148650484 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670467979065 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An autogolpe is a self-coup. January 6th is an example. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699518197725 | 1300 | BTE | 1699518192284 | 0 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670467979806}, {"name": "coup d'état", "slug": "coup-detat", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "wiaUz7jXkuNBbkBpCwdD", "createdTime": 1670540267753}] | ["politics-default", "coup-detat"] | 0.5 | 1699518192153 | 1699516328216 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8469441243089876 | KWbxESnqIEkgrpNEXnGN | {"NO": 4720.148447898653, "YES": 100.99986367371054} | 1 | will-marc-tessierlavigne-still-be-p | 7694.182109726862 | Will Marc Tessier-Lavigne resign or be fired as President of Stanford University before the end of 2023? | 1689809844112 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.234296329962825 | True | play | YES | public | 1670474121001 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.science.org/content/article/stanford-misconduct-probe-president-stumbles-new-journal-launches-inquiry", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.science.org/content/article/stanford-misconduct-probe-pres... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1689809844112 | 310 | ahalekelly | 1689800910903 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 0 | 14 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Scandal Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1670474121225}, {"name": "Stanford", "slug": "stanford", "groupId": "5d3e362a-d2e6-4edc-9f33-b4bc449d07ee", "createdTime": 1689364154989}] | ["scandal-markets", "stanford"] | 0.5 | 1689800910788 | 1689789312742 | False | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5736466593195945 | V4s4vfmcCVDkHG0rl8PF | {"NO": 1188.664703897663, "YES": 77.36574078971452} | 1 | will-i-be-intending-the-cambridge-b | 2490.8688542414225 | Will I be attending the Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative’s two-week Winter ML Bootcamp in January 2023? | 1673235000704 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0867792081105305 | True | play | YES | public | 1670475196972 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 8:53pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will I be intending the Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative’s two-week Winter ML Bootcamp in January 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will I be attending the Cambrid... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673235000704 | 410 | Alana | 1673235043649 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670475200363}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1673223946240 | 1673235039544 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32742773488967064 | VWnWHyWyPgNuJgAVbcPR | {"NO": 136.56162045803825, "YES": 844.7460614919246} | 0 | will-any-team-score-more-than-4-poi | 2863.9245214865377 | Will any team score more than 4 points in a quarter-final world cup game? | 1670734800000 | Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8443742154516827 | True | play | NO | public | 1670475890009 | Trong ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as expected", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 9:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670977384392 | 270 | 8 | 1670737874982 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670475890824}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1670727856607 | 1670737872065 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4673954660753449 | 0UuVvfqMrIPdAv4RTvUN | {"NO": 8564.72111080168, "YES": 351.91642479642474} | 1 | will-the-loud-black-zoomer-streamer | 19590.185152082202 | Will the "Loud black zoomer streamers" drama still be relevant next week? | 1670895281062 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.49442169099172295 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670477064150 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kai just responded to Destiny today.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dgg logs show that ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670895281062 | 1990 | johnleoks | 1710218502587 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 160 | 0 | 142 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670895267977 | 1670966614362 | 0.94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19602880294234395 | Dm4yOGSxpWABkELofXnM | {"NO": 336.9239425361293, "YES": 1507.4894602940867} | 0 | will-anyone-be-cancelled-for-trades | 1685.7641169810174 | Will anyone be cancelled for trades made on Manifold? [1st half of 2023] | 1688169600000 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4057237566380334 | True | play | NO | public | 1670479601256 | Bjorn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if someone deletes their Twitter/Social media or loses their job due to social pressure and controvercial trades made on Manifold. Deletion/resignation/firing must occur before July 1, 2023. Please post relevant cases in the commen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688185408730 | 470 | brp | 1685820240942 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1670479601500}] | ["metaforecasting"] | 0.5 | 1685820240827 | 1670887242581 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3866137531844065 | nQfIOqDniXs1fFWWJWUN | {"NO": 53.26256970269487, "YES": 395.93625833211394} | 0 | will-i-begin-work-on-bindings-for-m | 296.7464802079967 | Will I begin work on bindings for Manifold in Rust before the end of the year? | 1672531140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.100917442627183 | True | play | NO | public | 1670479780533 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm thinking about learning Rust. This feels like a fairly good target to start with", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should I?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531155660 | 150 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1672530619365 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670479795887}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1670479792176}, {"name": "Man... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia", "personal-goals", "programming"] | 0.5 | 1672530619243 | 1672529306959 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43797654050982493 | 888cBIlFAXFIDIEqm7Dv | {"NO": 4.10174010603987, "YES": 10699.314858994805} | 0 | will-derik-k-win-against-michelle-h | 11085.368242026134 | Will Derik K. win against Michelle Hung? | 1671408747411 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.561262741593713 | True | play | NO | public | 1670480158430 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Derik K wins against Michelle Hung in their current matchup in the double elimination bracket of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "gchess.ca", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://gchess.ca", "class": nul... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671408747411 | 130 | AndrewG | 1671408831311 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Gravity Chess", "slug": "gravity-chess", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "sYZVNt8Sk39UxMTDo1KL", "createdTime": 1670480158674}] | ["gravity-chess"] | 0.5 | 1671408733084 | 1671408828413 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8681476731451929 | FV6Q5dAl3q1s8Mw6T3FJ | {"NO": 29945.280179328132, "YES": 148.26672112256486} | 1 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-my-most-act | 62613.50577567188 | By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders? | 1698806370712 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0.04172190097302065 | 2.0101187925106183 | True | play | YES | public | 1670480334835 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 10:19pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "By the end of 2023, will my most active market have > 200 unique traders?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698806370712 | 370 | CarsonGale | 1698807309829 | 2.2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670480335170}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.12545274830155706 | 0.5 | 1698371645267 | 1698807308126 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7490209640493737 | GK82ivH89FZP7TvTQvJh | {"NO": 2618.0038795893624, "YES": 562.7589109999662} | 1 | is-the-manifold-money-supply-greate | 3392.273110245936 | Is the Manifold money supply greater than M$10 million? | 1671602340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7017339224279351 | True | play | YES | public | 1670481179612 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We don't currently track the \"mana supply\" or quantity of outstanding M$, but we probably will soon...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the mana supply is greater than $10M at the time som... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671646793833 | 880 | SG | 1682507796412 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670481180381}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1671600029647 | 1682507793226 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5375408052230684 | iqGO86YQivA4Qb6QBffw | {"NO": 85, "YES": 58.46153846153849} | 0.6282527881040889 | if-joe-plays-michelle-hung-in-round | 15 | If Joe plays Michelle Hung in Round 3, will he win? | 1670716927540 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6029571136801026 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670481348383 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If epic beats Joe or Derik K beats Michelle Hung, resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, resolves YES if Joe wins against Michelle Hung, and resolves NO if Michelle Hung wins.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670716927540 | 70 | AndrewG | 1670483891520 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Gravity Chess", "slug": "gravity-chess", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "sYZVNt8Sk39UxMTDo1KL", "createdTime": 1670481348596}] | ["gravity-chess"] | 0.5 | 1670483890009 | 0.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5006682164953202 | YNlfb2KdczVsU1hLSweS | {"NO": 957.7414362980816, "YES": 718.1767284289125} | 0 | will-manifolds-firebase-bill-be-les | 530.3253165795784 | Will Manifold's Firebase bill be less than $8,000 for the month of December? | 1672345965785 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4594358821107461 | True | play | NO | public | 1670482030032 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We spent $19k last month, but have since made a huge number of cost-saving changes and are currently in the process of moving some of our more query-intensive processes to Supabase.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672345965785 | 830 | SG | 1672327957724 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670482030780}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672327957538 | 1670867134696 | 0.57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3h8j7LW13zmc3mZXHUw5 | which-business-school-will-max-deci | 395 | Which business school will Max decide to attend? | 1672559940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.711255968344342 | True | play | 06fc37743038 | public | 1670482032592 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673020213197 | 280 | CarsonGale | 1671652771637 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "feca90c0c19b", "prob": 0.020406081012141617, "text": "Harvard", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4123294978558331, "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.79387754456927, "textFts": "'harvard':1", "contractId": "3h8j7LW13zmc3mZXHUw5", "createdTime": 1670482032592, "probChanges": {"day"... | 2 | 2 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1670482032896}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670743944857}] | ["fun", "gale-family"] | 1671390418452 | 1671652769348 | {"06fc37743038": 100} | True |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.