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Will I exercise daily until Jan 1?
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Cedar
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1670436473819
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squirrelfish
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how-many-players-will-play-pioneer
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How Many Players Will Play Pioneer on 12/7?
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cpmm-1
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = the Netherlands wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Argentina wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next roun...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1670623558970
1310
Manifold
1670615911731
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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0
1
https://firebasestorage.…636-0003e95b14eb
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[{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670450395022}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK...
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0.5
1670615911572
1670457893743
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0.3120918611376282
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{"NO": 1086.343292002429, "YES": 1149.9947763242112}
1
will-morocco-eliminate-portugal
972.2653819136514
Will Morocco eliminate Portugal?
1670684400000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
0
0.17530498486666224
True
basic
YES
public
1670450600433
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Morocco wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Portugal wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "typ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670864593158
1110
Manifold
1670710840197
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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0
1
https://firebasestorage.…09a-f02c0fde0e98
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[{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670450600638}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK...
["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670683387741
1670710837801
0.3
0.3739258597372296
SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG
{"NO": 11854.950472288765, "YES": 4720.284986942408}
0.6000000000000004
will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
2388405.991089642
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
1728511200000
QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2
cpmm-1
0.24049852171312164
0.42213216059337466
False
basic
public
1670450667281
crystal ball
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "as reported by the BBC", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1736.2845826303085
8615
duck
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7.5
https://firebasestorage.…23f-d21632687c4b
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https://firebasestorage.…b7a-8ea1b10051e8
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[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴 Trump...
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0.2835305504753927
0.5
1720246642429
1720014454764
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0.47399434362746085
AEf3fCYLiRxr3Bvth2i2
{"NO": 1636.7233367917697, "YES": 3441.3972297732444}
0
will-england-eliminate-france
52666.16058403514
Will England eliminate France?
1670702400000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
0
0.12511524882551184
True
basic
NO
public
1670451015772
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = England wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = France wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "type"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670864549246
2350
Manifold
1714075116913
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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0
1
https://firebasestorage.…874-08d84e53bc3b
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[{"name": "FIFA 2022: England vs France", "slug": "fifa-2022-england-vs-france", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5xWdp0uyszieheBUITkc", "createdTime": 1670747348063}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFS...
["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-england-vs-france", "nonpredictive"]
0.5
False
1670702371350
1670864424171
0.3
0.8332257342904157
cNmTnf0Q0OqH2clJS26c
{"NO": 13102.766291230937, "YES": 16047.640009225786}
0.8031224096064669
instant-deepfakes-of-anyone-within
548405.5659100234
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
1830326340000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0.23655989813199024
1.6597967043761592
False
plus
public
1670451167814
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By 2027-12-31, will we be able to synthesize basically any photo from a text description and sample images of people we want in the photo?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria",...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.016877590393533204, "month": 0.02312240960646683}
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dreev
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https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
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https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fz3UfriIde7.15?alt=media&token=d46f7ce2-a215-4eb4-9fc7-8b344b0491a9
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{"NO": 4031.1190190375196, "YES": 130.57232569984546}
1
will-marc-tessierlavigne-not-be-pre
5550.325202823448
By the end of 2023, will Marc Tessier-Lavigne no longer be president of Stanford and/or announce intent to resign?
1697725159123
HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2
cpmm-1
0
5.468348847521285
True
play
YES
public
1670451880370
Theodore Ehrenborg
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He is currently the president of Stanford, but he has been accused of faking images in scientific papers or not noticing that someone on his team faking images.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1697725159123
230
TheodoreEhrenborg
1691953326102
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c
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https://firebasestorage.…ed7-24ec74f3d25c
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[{"name": "Scandal Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1670451880596}, {"name": "Stanford", "slug": "stanford", "groupId": "5d3e362a-d2e6-4edc-9f33-b4bc449d07ee", "createdTime": 1689364144831}]
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1691953325930
1689788887467
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0.5
671Xum9pOflugVoPNexP
{"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100}
0.2000000000000001
will-the-autumn-view-have-over-60-m
50
Will The Autumn View have over 50 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year?
1670473328625
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
4.605170185988092
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670452628378
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670473328625
50
BRTD
1670452927372
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…d3a-74c797dbe56f
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[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452629127}]
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1670452927199
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0.3575403291845065
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will-destiny-stream-for-at-least-5h
686.3759273485491
Will Destiny stream for at least 5h "today"?
1670467481739
7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2
cpmm-1
0
4.3692638993962785
True
play
NO
public
1670452630431
nickten 💙💦🐬
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = stream begins on December 7th, 2022 (EST) and lasts at least 5h. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1670467481739
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nickten
1670467481112
0
https://firebasestorage.…364-97b0abbf579f
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https://firebasestorage.…df2-4a2d4f2c42b1
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[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670452631174}]
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1670467480920
1670456762916
0.02
0.5
UDCX2pxxCLxPiJQTvurK
{"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100}
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will-the-autumn-view-have-over-100
50
Will The Autumn View have over 100 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year?
1670473319431
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
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4.605170185988092
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670452733048
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks...
BINARY
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1670473319431
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[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452733823}]
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sOaYA6CjTIWlzVk0uT91
{"NO": 25.000000000000014, "YES": 100}
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will-the-autumn-view-have-over-75-m
50
Will The Autumn View have over 75 monthly Spotify listeners by the end of the year?
1670473324537
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
4.605170185988092
True
play
CANCEL
public
1670452738004
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an obscure band finally unearthed who decided to put their recordings on streaming: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.spotify.com/artist/74xyngBMYajM1vhHTmyuDK?si=8qcJ-IMJTny1Kgq2iNQtrA&utm_source=copy-link", "type": "text", "marks...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1670473324537
50
BRTD
1711598014365
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…73f-4d59f4ebae77
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[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1670452738758}]
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1670452934898
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who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-bra-a88c0ce11214
160.83784720778468
Who will be Man of the Match in Brazil vs Croatia?
1670601600000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.8003807142257395
True
play
6be786e555c1
public
1670453929869
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670623677931
1159.9999999999998
Manifold
1670601573832
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
16
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c98eb8c7a1c4", "prob": 0.16637694572380712, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.722040383429791, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.659538343640847, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QD1mKXThO9bplZcUYnyN", "createdTime": 1670453930199, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
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https://firebasestorage.…cdf-86ec2488aab0
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["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-vs-croatia-20221210"]
1670601573664
{"6be786e555c1": 100}
True
fPOz9zkkwX2GSCNxEgsa
who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-the-5241d79a9b88
210
Who will be Man of the Match in the Netherlands vs Argentina?
1670616000000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.76442857219273
True
play
53a3ec508fe6
public
1670453998954
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670867364860
1079.9999999999998
Manifold
1670624095936
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https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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0
ANYONE
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1
https://firebasestorage.…303-ba8f2de37307
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[{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670453999268}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK...
["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
1670615801004
1670624090476
{"53a3ec508fe6": 100}
True
z184VdJ3cqk4eYasQJIp
who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-mor
404.61298202716733
Who will be Man of the Match in Morocco vs Portugal?
1670688000000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.712685192680542
True
play
52416b50ec5
public
1670454072240
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670867332198
1319.9999999999998
Manifold
1670687920978
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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15
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ANYONE
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1
https://firebasestorage.…1ca-980135362dba
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[{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670454072534}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK...
["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]
1670687920866
1670681332199
{"52416b50ec5": 100}
True
kQRnYVvgQzcQaKOJUT0v
who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-eng-b3b33c0ee202
381.06030296847445
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