CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will my next job be obtained via referral? (Sam's Moving Series)

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 8, "YES": 5}

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public

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Sam

My partner recently accepted a job in the Bay Area, so now I'm in the market for a new role as well. Moving to the area in June. Will my next job be thanks to a referral or good old fashioned random apps? *Want to move this market? I'm open to referrals from fellow MMers...* More about my career: - Early 30s, no ad...

BINARY

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{"NO": 19.5, "YES": 12.5}

Will I break up with my primary this year?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 19.5, "YES": 12.5}

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Em ✨

Me: hypothetically, how could I personally contribute most to the possibility of social drama on manifold CounterMe: directly bet on relationships in a way that passive-aggressively implies I expect them to screw things up Me: 🤔 CounterMe: you have a problem CounterMe: ... but darnit I'm curious now

BINARY

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hamnox

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{"NO": 63.84755842486409, "YES": 230.07788805172925}

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{"NO": 16.25, "YES": 8.75}

Will R. Ramesh finish his PhD by the end of September?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 16.25, "YES": 8.75}

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1646716435184

Em ✨

I am so confused about the timing to expect. COVID delayed things a lot. Am resolving this according to when he tells me it's a done deal.

BINARY

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{"NO": 20.156450596521204, "YES": 14.790791065727351}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-fighter-jets-supplied-by-polan-19a874a509b0

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{"NO": 1691.534680480446, "YES": 113.63434156561712}

Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 17 March 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1685, "YES": 125}

0

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1646719408765

Ben J. Smith

This market resolves positively if reliable sources report that fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022 11:59 PM local Ukraine time. Must be corroborated by multiple reliable sources, i.e., international media other than Ukrainian or Russian sources. Jets may be flown or transported b...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

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B

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which-of-these-interventions-will-i

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Which of these interventions will I rate highest on v2 of Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

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1646725344584

Scott Alexander

I am working on an updated version of Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting, which I will post sometime in the next few months. Below, I've listed some interventions I'm considering. Right now, one of these seems most promising (if that changes, I'll figure something out). Your job is to guess which one that will be. I c...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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ScottAlexander

1646725344584

0

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ANYONE

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1

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True

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which-party-will-win-the-2022-ontar-e6f4252bd0f7

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Which party will win the 2022 Ontario provincial election?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

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Athena

Whichever party is able to form government in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario following the election occurring on (or before) June 2nd, 2022 will be chosen as the answer to this market. If a minority government is formed, then the governing party holding the greatest number of seats at the time that the 43rd Parliament ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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500

Athena

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6"}, {"name": "Ontario", "slug": "ontario", "groupId": "9K9niz7vv4KxOqU2o7pn"}]

["politics-default", "canada", "ontario"]

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True

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{"NO": 105.82553986276565, "YES": 261.4711343355403}

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will-studio-high-sea-still-exist-by

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{"NO": 80, "YES": 55}

Will Studio High Sea still exist by 2023 March 31?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 80, "YES": 55}

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NO

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1646729887473

comsynthus

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Referring to the studio behind this Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/StudioHighSea. Also check out the first ~4 minutes of this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnnYCJNhw7w introducing the project. It's basically a guy trying to show how he ca...

BINARY

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{"NO": 109.08785450498144, "YES": 79.53056016714582}

{"creatorFee": 0.18613365794160658, "platformFee": 0.031022276323601095, "liquidityFee": 0.18613365794160658}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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comsynthus

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564069}]

["economics-default"]

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{"NO": 1073.05653937875, "YES": 985.0254347730832}

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will-mdmaassisted-therapy-for-ptsd

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{"NO": 12.999999999999998, "YES": 111.12188983369421}

Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030?

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{"NO": 12.999999999999998, "YES": 111}

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Athena

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to 'YES' if the FDA announces approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD by January 1st, 2030. If approval is announced prior to market closing, then the market will resolve early. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

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1000

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[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1664698556584}]

["health"]

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{"NO": 986.5323574978361, "YES": 1050.5199548938251}

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If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

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{"NO": 191.3, "YES": 55.7}

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Arie Arie

Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality. This question resolves N...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 211.44503967075238, "YES": 114.79772309764279}

{"creatorFee": 0.16836174160687847, "platformFee": 0.04209043540171962, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

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[{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1661613716124}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1661613719407}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukra...

["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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{"NO": 212.5, "YES": 37.5}

Will the linked derivative market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 212.5, "YES": 37.5}

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True

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CANCEL

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Undox

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-the-linked-market-fall-to-less\n\nThis question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.\n\nWe need more high volume degen markets for whales to gamble on. This may be one of them!\n\nMar 8, 9:05pm: Made a mistake might recreate later"

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

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Undox

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.01

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{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.10000000000000009}

This market is a grift exploiting lack of significant investment in 5 different options in https://manifold.markets/adam/which-market-will-make-me-the-most

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.10000000000000009}

0

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1646747600021

Angola Maldives

Gimme M$100, please >:)

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

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100

AngolaMaldives

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-belarus-send-troops-to-ukraine

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Will Belarus send troops to Ukraine?

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{"NO": 965, "YES": 172}

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1646749190083

Luca Petrolati

This market resolves to YES if it's confermed by reputable media that Belarus sent troops to Ukraine by April 1 2022.

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LucaPetrolati

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480177}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226545}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

False

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-this-market-have-between-m-750

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{"NO": 12620.933263096844, "YES": 212.38373740496863}

Will this market have between M$ 7,500 and M$ 12,500 invested at close on 15th of March?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 12707, "YES": 195}

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NO

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1646751501167

nic

This market will resolve YES if at close between M$ 7,500 and M$ 12,500 are invested, inclusive. Close is at 23:59 UTC on 15th of March 2022.

BINARY

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nic_kup

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.034478700423214735

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{"NO": 100.4701725245805, "YES": 6}

Will the March 8 Apple event get at least 15M views on YouTube before April.

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 101, "YES": 6}

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NO

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1646759824992

Passion Fruit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUwg_JoNHpo

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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PassionFruit

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{"NO": 167.98965489794324, "YES": 148.60959372704872}

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{"NO": 76.5, "YES": 29.5}

Zuranolone gets FDA approval for major depression

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 76.5, "YES": 29.5}

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1646775352370

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for major depression, otherwise resolves NO.

BINARY

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Gabrielle

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{"NO": 37.5, "YES": 52.5}

Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression

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cpmm-1

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YES

public

1646775404298

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression, otherwise resolves NO.

BINARY

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1704051206858

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Gabrielle

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0

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["ancient-markets"]

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zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-so

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{"NO": 66.5, "YES": 62.5}

Zuranolone gets FDA approval for some other condition

1804568340000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.5, "YES": 62.5}

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public

1646775464813

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for some other condition (ie. not postpartum depression or major depression), otherwise resolves NO.

BINARY

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Gabrielle

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0

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1650314715425

0

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another-neurosteroid-gets-fda-appro

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{"NO": 45.5, "YES": 43.5}

A neurosteroid other than Zuranolone gets FDA approval for a psychiatric indication

1804568340000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 45.5, "YES": 43.5}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646775522840

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if Another neurosteroid (ie. any neurosteroid other than Zuranolone) gets FDA approval for a psychiatric indication, otherwise resolves NO.

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 55.62455393663845, "YES": 69.47724088037751}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}

0

120

Gabrielle

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0

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{"NO": 111.13217079514568, "YES": 159.99999999999991}

0.5374712267869293

researchers-become-more-convinced-t

131.89595002555606

{"NO": 42, "YES": 47}

Researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin)

1804568340000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 42, "YES": 47}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1646775599082

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin), otherwise resolves NO. Ultimate arbiter will be Scott Alexa...

BINARY

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Gabrielle

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0

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["ancient-markets"]

1707072838722

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{"NO": 27, "YES": 62}

The scientific consensus is still that allopregnanolone works by modulating GABA receptors in a way importantly different from benzodiazepines

1804568340000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 27, "YES": 62}

0

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False

play

public

1646775664725

Gabrielle

From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Will resolve YES if the scientific consensus is still that allopregnanolone works by modulating GABA receptors in a way importantly different from benzodiazepines, otherwise resolves NO. Ultimate arbiter will be Scott Alexa...

BINARY

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Gabrielle

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["ancient-markets"]

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will-zuranolone-get-fda-approval-fo

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{"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5}

Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for major depression until 2027-03-08?

1646777738798

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5}

0

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True

play

CANCEL

public

1646776650828

Milli

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone?s=r Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-ma

BINARY

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0

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1646777738798

100

Milli

1646776650828

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10

{"NO": 5.5, "YES": 4.5}

Will Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression until 2027-03-08?

1646777677629

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.5, "YES": 4.5}

0

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True

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CANCEL

public

1646776826290

Milli

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-po

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 7.416940106944373, "YES": 6.708874752892618}

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1646777677629

100

Milli

1646776826290

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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{"NO": 6.699999999999999, "YES": 3.3000000000000003}

Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for some condition other than major or postpartum depression until 2027-03-08?

1646777695403

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 6.699999999999999, "YES": 3.3000000000000003}

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True

play

CANCEL

public

1646776937299

Milli

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-so

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 8.186171307149637, "YES": 5.7451371028026825}

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1646777695403

100

Milli

1646776937299

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1

1715657675147

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will-there-be-a-new-hogwarts-legacy

568

{"NO": 100, "YES": 468}

Will there be a new Hogwarts Legacy trailer before April of 2022?

1648796460000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 468}

0

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True

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YES

public

1646777015115

tricyclerean

This market resolves to "YES" if there is a new official Hogwarts Legacy trailer by April 1st 2022. Mar 16, 12:54pm: Too bad no one voted on this :)

BINARY

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epicandSTEVIE

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-a-neurosteroid-except-zuranolo

10

{"NO": 6.5, "YES": 3.5}

Will a neurosteroid except Zuranolone get FDA approval for a psychiatric indication until until 2027-03-08?

1646777631990

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 6.5, "YES": 3.5}

0

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True

play

CANCEL

public

1646777038791

Milli

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/another-neurosteroid-gets-fda-appro

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 8.06306397407338, "YES": 5.916671391077926}

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1646777631990

100

Milli

1646777038791

0

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1

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.023949138814550918

will-ukraine-receive-additional-mig

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{"NO": 1552.4570777559952, "YES": 161.03575278455145}

Will Ukraine receive additional MiGs in the next week?

1647413940000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1555, "YES": 160}

0

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True

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NO

public

1646777152411

Mike Blume

Poland has announced its intent to fly all their MiG-29 jets to a US air base in Germany. If these MiGs make their way to Ukraine, so that Ukrainian pilots can fly them, or if other MiGs not currently being used by Ukraine do the same, before March 15th, this market will resolve YES. https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/s...

BINARY

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1647550353855

100

MichaelBlume

1646777152411

0

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will-mm-make-it-better-for-market-c

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Will MM make it better for market creators, by May 1st 2022.

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 216, "YES": 128}

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YES

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1646779613292

Undox

The problem is one of endorphins. Trading, pushing and pulling money into markets for a fast buck (or lost buck) is fun, immediate and let's say zero-sum ish. OTOH creating a market is long term, boring in the sense it locks up your ANTE for ages, and extra boring if the market is meaningful and not some short term w...

BINARY

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Undox

1646779613292

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-i-do-24-pushups-per-day-for-th

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Will I do ≥24 pushups per day for the next week?

1647316740000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 118.5, "YES": 263.5}

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YES

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1646782671291

Blazer

This market resolves YES if I do at least 24 pushups each day until next Monday, inclusive. Doing more than 24 pushups on a given day does not count towards any other day's total. Pushups done after midnight but before I go to bed count towards the "previous" day. 24 is my usual set size and I don't expect to have t...

BINARY

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{"NO": 225.07036606472602, "YES": 306.979993220045}

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{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

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1647316852858

100

BlazingDarkness

1646782671291

0

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0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.49999999999999994

is-eurpln-exchange-rate-going-to-re

30

{"NO": 15, "YES": 15}

Is EUR/PLN exchange rate going to reach 5.00 in March 2022?

1647156950976

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 15, "YES": 15}

0

5.5856306535877325

True

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CANCEL

public

1646782714499

Account deletion requested

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-PLN?window=MAX will be used right now it is 4.87 Market will be resolved once I spot that it reached 5.00 or more within March 2022, or after March will end.

BINARY

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1647156950976

100

Accountdeletionrequested

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-this-questions-probability-be

218

{"NO": 108, "YES": 110}

Will this question's probability be between 4.5% and 50% on March 10th 6 PM Eastern Time?

1646953200000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 108, "YES": 110}

0

4.821184563993818

True

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NO

public

1646783368331

Matthew Barnett

This question resolves to YES if the probability for this question on March 10th 2022, 6:00 PM Eastern Time is between 4.5% and 50% inclusive, according to the Manifold Markets API. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. Idea by @NataliaMendonca

BINARY

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100

MatthewBarnett

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what-will-the-number-of-active-volc-8b587dd8b542

155

What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?

1672549140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.893920819158259

True

play

21869b938b08

public

1646789279485

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7910/active-volcanos-in-2022/ Acceptable answers: integers rounded to nearest 5, i.e. "65", "70", "75", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1672697729756

300

MetaculusBot

1672544625595

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

ANYONE

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1

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True

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by-2023-how-many-words-of-content-w

1969.3118340597541

By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?

1672549140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649938413461764

True

play

e9ccc4bc5350

public

1646789946872

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/ Acceptable answers: integers in increments of 25k, i.e. "200k", "225k", "250k", etc Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673916410598

540

MetaculusBot

1672548449189

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "968324ad0ac2", "prob": 0.12562554602945888, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.625717285163414, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.195752800854706, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1646789947059, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

4

7

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979197093}]

["effective-altruism"]

1672548449052

1672535677674

{"e9ccc4bc5350": 100}

True

0.09356610504704006

5BHCDX9h9I4jzRJH0SqG

{"NO": 140.50708030419636, "YES": 131.65708979126242}

0.04

by-2023-what-fraction-of-total-traf

656.1129927300709

{"NO": 450, "YES": 50}

By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 450, "YES": 50}

0

6.367897575411833

True

play

MKT

public

1646790149907

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/ Resolves PROB to rounded result. i.e. if the Metaculus question resolves to 0.105, this market would resolve to 11%. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 474.34259770855493, "YES": 158.114199236185}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1675610405569

140

MetaculusBot

1671290018043

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

1650313799011

0

8

5

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979202538}]

["effective-altruism"]

1671290017860

0.04

0.18

5gzKDkj5B6NJJ9kltgu0

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.17

by-2023-what-fraction-of-total-cont

500.00000000000006

{"NO": 410.00000000000006, "YES": 90}

By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 410.00000000000006, "YES": 90}

0

4.6961191094847266

True

play

MKT

public

1646790351246

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/ Resolves PROB, rounded. i.e. if the Metaculus question resolves to 0.175, this market resolves to 18%. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 452.77016244538464, "YES": 212.13245862003296}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009055385138137418, "YES": 0.0004242640687119285}

0

1673916388888

100

MetaculusBot

1646790351246

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

1650313802275

0

4

2

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979214115}]

["effective-altruism"]

0.17

vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui

by-2023-how-fast-will-the-effective

1092.5342655672744

By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.662614368368802

True

play

f78395235e87

public

1646790517504

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/ Resolves rounded to nearest 0.25. Acceptable answers: decimals in 0.25 increments, i.e. "1.0", "1.25", "1.50", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.731513646262697, "platformFee": 0.18287841156567425, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673916366261

620

MetaculusBot

1671290165106

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0aaa7581285c", "prob": 0.2368128770974463, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.794298351585331, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.341766457789713, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1646790517696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

4

5

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979209577}]

["effective-altruism"]

1671290165001

{"f78395235e87": 100}

True

QXUT1gF1x30azjayVKcL

by-2023-what-will-be-the-quality-of

681

By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.685921486164851

True

play

2e33f1054dfe

public

1646790752225

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/ Resolves rounded to nearest 0.25. Acceptable answers: decimals from 1.0-5.0 in 0.25 increments, i.e. "4.0", "4.25", "4.5", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675610277129

579.9999999999998

MetaculusBot

1672322358720

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1fa788172849", "prob": 0.5390707713671482, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.015981882911724, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.520029213092368, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QXUT1gF1x30azjayVKcL", "createdTime": 1646790752409, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

8

3

1672322358543

{"2e33f1054dfe": 100}

True

0.7963297782313955

54DWjQN4MGO7Hzv30xVg

{"NO": 409.8950944269502, "YES": 142.20307615193394}

0

by-2023-will-the-effective-altruism

905.4570454555336

{"NO": 164.99999999999997, "YES": 380}

By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 164.99999999999997, "YES": 380}

0

2.8887580873012695

True

play

NO

public

1646790877137

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 287.22870678316605, "YES": 463.16925632069973}

{"creatorFee": 0.6429296168792678, "platformFee": 0.046008734525963726, "liquidityFee": 0.27605240715578233}

{"NO": 0.0005744562646538029, "YES": 0.0008185352771872451}

0

1673916333657

180.2760524071558

MetaculusBot

1672260947597

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

13

1650313798684

0

4

12

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371473}]

["metaculus"]

1672260947123

1654230238111

0.92

0.3194353743695407

zveCZlyNmMttjmXp81Qp

{"NO": 51.6317004129354, "YES": 906.1668299679543}

0

will-any-of-the-ongoing-biontech-mr

1310.1217943210834

{"NO": 280, "YES": 220}

Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 280, "YES": 220}

0

3.0670834242162113

True

play

NO

public

1646790943927

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9174/phase-iii-trials-on-cancer-vaccines-in-2022/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 374.16648700887146, "YES": 331.66314236049806}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007483314773547884, "YES": 0.0006633249580710799}

0

1673055442175

140

MetaculusBot

1672545755610

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

7

1650315031942

0

2

8

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371502}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1691181578704}]

["metaculus", "biotech"]

1672545755472

False

0.03

0.25985485999486335

W5tk8a8QbJvEAqlXuyiX

{"NO": 90.17013774390557, "YES": 1223.3966940468513}

0

will-cumulative-reported-deaths-fro

7485.46315633817

{"NO": 970.1748055899632, "YES": 1529.8767726562596}

Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 960, "YES": 1608}

0

2.977838726450521

True

play

NO

public

1646791002606

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1366.5201194293213, "YES": 2093.534250302693}

{"creatorFee": 13.433522209038001, "platformFee": 1.6825596772470808, "liquidityFee": 5.750986892303016}

{"NO": 0.000916515138991168, "YES": 0.0004}

0

1673055428085

225.75098689230305

MetaculusBot

1673036898762

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

48

1650314621329

0

2

47

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418149}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560872}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5...

["china", "world-default", "medicine", "metaculus"]

1672088431960

1673036892720

0.03

0.9978402674398203

i79yuYsyLuzx5dF6Uq8a

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9978402674398203

will-john-beshir-still-be-on-the-le

4087.405013630847

{"NO": 52.71642726699724, "YES": 1935.8785591021556}

Will John Beshir still be on the leaderboard on March 20th 2022, 6 PM Eastern Time?

1647813600000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 53, "YES": 1941}

0

4.639946825229062

True

play

YES

public

1646791030151

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if John Beshir is still in the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets leaderboard, sorted by total profits. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. Mar 8, 8:57pm: I will check the leaderboard at the time indicated in the title of this question. If he drops from the leaderboard and gets back on it, it w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 92.41586789623652, "YES": 1986.4474079029853}

{"creatorFee": 2.3439550663242184, "platformFee": 0.5859887665810546, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648090113906

100

MatthewBarnett

1646791030151

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

12

1715658554996

0

1

1647743910882

0.9978402674398203

0.7920289216254698

gmhvBSrCAgOjs5ROHPcs

{"NO": 288.9390166381122, "YES": 76.27675341728451}

1

does-omicron-have-a-shorter-generat

771.9999999999999

{"NO": 140, "YES": 440}

Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 140, "YES": 440}

0

4.403148979196583

True

play

YES

public

1646791079218

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 264.5756602567212, "YES": 516.1403685052353}

{"creatorFee": 1.3193980060514356, "platformFee": 0.05168292883270803, "liquidityFee": 0.3100975729962481}

{"NO": 0.0005291502622129182, "YES": 0.000848528137423857}

0

1686738032874

100.31009757299624

MetaculusBot

1667245336440

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

10

1650314710239

0

33

10

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371097}]

["medicine", "metaculus"]

1667245336248

0.94

0.11481365346630919

kDue6U4Q0izfL4jBHzZe

{"NO": 111.83329620471866, "YES": 709.7776097363808}

0

will-the-us-cdc-classify-omicron-as

1251.9999999999995

{"NO": 545, "YES": 95}

Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 545, "YES": 95}

0

5.712617842834133

True

play

NO

public

1646791136231

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 592.369048820792, "YES": 242.28122089866972}

{"creatorFee": 0.38686615642695266, "platformFee": 0.032895178561475856, "liquidityFee": 0.19737107136885512}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1672610440906

140.19737107136885

MetaculusBot

1672546438499

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

9

1650314731705

0

1

9

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371399}]

["medicine", "metaculus"]

1672546438388

0.02

0.8107801429780628

H6Z6SYzbpes0eIJjO3rt

{"NO": 173.5287500315584, "YES": 89.31133535186073}

1

will-the-us-uk-or-eu-authorize-an-o

661.1311816183614

{"NO": 109.99999999999999, "YES": 430}

Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?

1660612495672

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 109.99999999999999, "YES": 430}

0

4.531592159949245

True

play

YES

public

1646791187348

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8754/date-usukeu-ok-omicron-specific-booster/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 234.52125703274746, "YES": 486.4163442985649}

{"creatorFee": 1.7024385173820615, "platformFee": 0.10621570343487659, "liquidityFee": 0.6372942206092596}

{"NO": 0.00046904157598234294, "YES": 0.0008831760866327847}

0

1660612495672

100.63729422060926

MetaculusBot

1657886458106

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

6

1650313878622

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372269}]

["metaculus"]

1657886456795

0.892765143214588

0.4510568440064595

czPqp6cgHjem8iVzJh1M

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.4510568440064595

will-all-the-no-traders-in-the-mark

786.8937442739528

{"NO": 638.1062557260472, "YES": 47}

Will all the NO traders in the market about whether "range" markets work agree that it was resolved fairly?

1647276426471

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 659, "YES": 47}

0

4.68551192294835

True

play

NO

public

1646794948412

Daniel Reeves

I realized that in https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-there-or-will-there-be-a-success I should've first bought 1 mana of YES and commented with my reasoning for resolving to YES before doing so. To make up for that, I'm resolving this market to YES only if all the NO traders there agree that YES was the correct resolu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 682.6681901538809, "YES": 57.75893004982}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647276426471

100

dreev

1646794948412

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

5

1715658455964

0

1647275958258

0.4510568440064595

0.911540123094728

ueFsCdbrRbUCfyLZsgn5

{"NO": 597.8317612359133, "YES": 85.94819482346442}

1

will-i-marry-natalia-mendonca-befor

1883.7713984226284

{"NO": 67, "YES": 423.2286015773716}

Will I marry Natália Mendonça before July 1st 2022?

1653426657544

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 67, "YES": 420}

0

8.893671808902514

True

play

YES

public

1646803274999

Matthew Barnett

I'm currently engaged to Natália Mendonça. This market resolves to YES if I marry her before July 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 146.3199332739955, "YES": 467.8841089301944}

{"creatorFee": 1.0094325845204133, "platformFee": 0.16823876408673552, "liquidityFee": 1.0094325845204133}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1653426657544

101.00943258452043

MatthewBarnett

1653351784444

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

10

1650314796095

0

[{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666822033229}]

["sex-and-love"]

1653351783074

1646813292752

0.986240234505567

0.95

Yrkhhkx8CSKxmrMiIlCA

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.95

will-tupac-still-be-alive-in-serbia

110

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95}

Will Tupac still be alive in Serbia on January 1, 2023?

1647648222832

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95}

0

5.018922567828004

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646804565532

Adam

Mar 8, 9:46pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntft_zd-_NM

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}

0

1647648222832

100

Adam

1646804565532

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

2

1715658332316

0

0.95

0.500096114993507

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.500096114993507

will-i-steal-your-money

1304

{"NO": 51, "YES": 50.999999999999886}

Will I steal your money?

1647648241708

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 51, "YES": 51}

0

5.012419115615842

True

play

NO

public

1646805150551

Adam

BINARY

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{"NO": 72.11866610316638, "YES": 72.13253080614878}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647648241708

100

Adam

1646805150551

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

4

1715657858343

0

1647506363707

0.500096114993507

0.964786498631866

Als2rgJkhUibZN0t88gt

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.964786498631866

will-this-market-have-m10000-invest-c5cfee65e218

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{"NO": 666.6860414157136, "YES": 11824.82755705043}

Will this market have M$10,000 invested in it before March 31st?

1648337836409

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 663, "YES": 11839}

0

4.619115084882415

True

play

NO

public

1646805733744

Adam

BINARY

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1648337836409

100

Adam

1646805733744

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

15

1715657715883

0

[{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661914994558}]

["improperly-resolved"]

1648337219100

0.964786498631866

0.5014103387916288

VpXEfUCfMTWFrLMFeGgk

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5014103387916288

this-market-will-resolve-as-prob-50

384

{"NO": 210, "YES": 174}

This market will resolve as PROB 50:50

1647413940000

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 210, "YES": 174}

0

4.73737237331748

True

play

MKT

public

1646805781915

Adam

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 271.14649177243655, "YES": 271.9123903033843}

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0

1647441609867

100

Adam

1646805781915

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

8

1715658255032

0

1

0.5014103387916288

0.5000000000000001

24qZbFETbtZ1KdSDXYnU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5000000000000001

according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia

100

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

“According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyways. Because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.”

1646953587383

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

5.018922567828004

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646805869939

Adam

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595}

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1646953587383

100

Adam

1646805869939

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

1

1715656912382

0

0.5000000000000001

0.02594710241476793

TaeR68G40T7mx0GKjnuL

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.02594710241476793

will-there-be-3-consecutive-days-in

796.782480709546

{"NO": 563.8310485152964, "YES": 55.38647077515759}

Will there be 3 consecutive days in March 2022 where the NYT does NOT mention COVID on the front-page?

1648796340000

RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 565, "YES": 55}

0

4.692712646683949

True

play

NO

public

1646805933212

lippy

This market resolves to YES if there are 3 consecutive days in March 2022 where the NYT does NOT mention COVID or related keywords on the front-page. The specific keywords are: covid, corona, pandemic, or wuhan. - Data source: https://eddietejeda.github.io/nytimes-covid-frontpage/ - Source code: https://github.com/edd...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 611.1322576138681, "YES": 99.74436493375975}

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{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1648830999436

100

lippy

1646805933212

0

https://firebasestorage.…1a9-77d097e34bba

11

1715658210060

0

1

0.02594710241476793

0.5470733992581504

qgRXohnFSinNHZa0CkLh

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5470733992581504

according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b

219.44322136774207

{"NO": 78, "YES": 94.55677863225793}

According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. [...]

1646896806391

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 78, "YES": 97}

0

4.868925832475209

True

play

NO

public

1646805977395

Adam

Mar 8, 10:34pm: The market creation service should probably do some data validation.

BINARY

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{"NO": 116.13107743317599, "YES": 127.63134341026513}

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1646896806391

100

Adam

1646805977395

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

11

1715658746283

0

1646888307378

0.5470733992581504

0.9

WZDOSwGxRaYf2QrtdLz3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9

will-manifold-markets-implement-eit

300

{"NO": 29.999999999999993, "YES": 270}

Will Manifold Markets implement either "report" functionality or "will automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat bad-faith actors holding markets "hostage", by May 15th, 2022? (sparked by Dr P's Trump question)

1646827515812

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 29.999999999999993, "YES": 270}

0

4.769032994622135

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646827386696

Matt P

This market resolves to YES if Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions by the closing date. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this (without re...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 94.8686460328174, "YES": 284.60593809845216}

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{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1646827515812

100

MattP

1646827386696

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

1715658269432

0

0.9

0.8638050317370944

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{"NO": 2.3287670853732196, "YES": 182.81319798000402}

0

will-manifold-implement-either-repo

891.6116166413094

{"NO": 64.53289450845, "YES": 527.9046096805557}

Will Manifold implement either "report" functionality or "markets automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat "hostage" markets by bad faith actors, sometime on or before May 15th, 2022?

1652677140000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 70, "YES": 528}

0

7.156727565980848

True

play

NO

public

1646827770987

Matt P

This market resolves to YES if, by the closing date, Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this IMO (with...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 205.69539221709852, "YES": 555.5832852654594}

{"creatorFee": 1.4907630676143129, "platformFee": 0.24846051126905214, "liquidityFee": 1.4907630676143129}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1652717414954

101.49076306761431

MattP

1652717502164

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

20

1650314616101

0

1

1652037699493

1652717500534

0.07475335579750599

fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X

what-is-the-proper-way-to-make-mark

70.7773620313956

What is the proper way to make markets asking for features?

1648076340000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.377594278135834

True

play

c41f7971b077

public

1646844547685

Account deletion requested

Mar 9, 5:49pm: I plan to resolve it as probability based on what seems the best idea Mar 9, 5:53pm: Comments about what seems the best solution and what worked before are welcome

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4577507621458288, "platformFee": 0.3644376905364572, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649368088995

520

Accountdeletionrequested

1662787424499

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2380c49d7a5a", "prob": 0.05352756178925383, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0183620189498275, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.006640893741654, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844547910, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1662787236762}]

["improperly-resolved"]

1662787421049

{"c41f7971b077": 100}

True

0.95

z9IVtdmNYoam1hYlY9Dk

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.95

will-the-administrators-of-manifold

100

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95}

Will the administrators of Manifold Markets delete my market with an exceptionally long question before March 13th?

1646845398259

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95}

0

5.018922567828004

True

play

NO

public

1646845116925

Adam

see https://manifold.markets/Adam/according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b People are rightfully complaining that the market ruins a bunch of UX stuff, and obviously this is unintended behavior. Resolving based on Pacific timezone. Mar 9, 8:58am: This will resolve "No" if they implement some kind of "show more...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}

0

1646845398259

100

Adam

1646845116925

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

1

1715658967645

0

0.95

0.06628314203913957

DBn85QJK1NadYHuOE1QW

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.06628314203913957

will-i-find-a-good-procrypto-respon

488.1277635815648

{"NO": 102, "YES": 11.872236418435193}

Will I find a good pro-crypto response to the "Line Goes Up" video?

1648796400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 102, "YES": 13}

0

4.977793086517973

True

play

NO

public

1646849938409

Isaac King

This video is making the rounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g This market resolves to yes if someone points me to, or I find on my own, an in-depth, well thought-out response to the video that is itself largely in favor of crypto, or at least not against it.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 110.03459871848467, "YES": 29.317248460094035}

{"creatorFee": 0.4748894567374082, "platformFee": 0.11872236418435204, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1648830454304

100

IsaacKing

1646849938409

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

1715657778075

0

1

1648638163715

0.06628314203913957

qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv

who-will-win-the-mens-race-at-utmb

115.74059330077398

Who will win the men's race at UTMB 2022?

1661464740000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.976768964229349

True

play

bd525b5f75c9

public

1646851270695

howtodowtle

Elite runner entry list: https://utmbmontblanc.com/en/page/233/2019-elite-runners.html Apr 23, 10:54am: If the winner's name is explicitly named among the choices, I will resolve to N/A. (I.e., an answer like "a runner not listed here" will not win.) Jun 3, 9:12pm: Typo in the addendum from April 23: If the winner's ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662055174021

560.0000000000001

howtodowtle

1661455071932

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8dc2101103c6", "prob": 0.007659776022976826, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.049350917867214426, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.393516043148067, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851270933, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

3

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408326}]

["sports-default"]

1661455071707

{"bd525b5f75c9": 100}

True

0.86

uhL2YChapUHbBXusLACH

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.86

how-quickly-and-consistently-do-mar

42.22316661865607

{"NO": 15, "YES": 24.776833381343927}

How quickly and consistently do markets update? This market resolves to the current time in 15-minute intervals, some time in the next few days.

1647063586249

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 15, "YES": 25}

0

5.422211192165278

True

play

MKT

public

1646852170041

Isaac King

This market will resolve some time in the next few days, at an exact day and time of my choosing. I will choose pseudorandomly based on factors like "I just remembered this market needs to resolve and I'm not currently busy"; I'm not going to decide based on the current probability or any sort of collusion. It will re...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 22.864783714556307, "YES": 32.54961895630301}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647063586249

100

IsaacKing

1646852170041

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

4

1715658834371

0

1646874908907

0.86

0.9173538694009861

fV5sqproAYaAqEIur1Wh

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9173538694009861

edirrevo-ltr-a-htiw-noitseuq-a-ksa

11

{"NO": 0.9999999999999998, "YES": 10}

‮?edirrevo LTR a htiw noitseuq a ksa I fi sneppah tahw

1646896909360

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0.9999999999999998, "YES": 10}

0

6.291739963573701

True

play

YES

public

1646853182933

Adam

Sorry, more Fuzzing.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 3.1625938879343947, "YES": 10.53660291080574}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1646896909360

100

Adam

1691486432047

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

2

1715658506590

0

1691486428806

0.9173538694009861

0.05970820901000404

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{"NO": 331.0118224740516, "YES": 2171.3091013156773}

0

will-chile-nationalize-any-company

9300.193575483256

{"NO": 40, "YES": 13}

Will Chile nationalize any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry?

1678431540000

Vl6yDq4FsoOaCkzFrvkWei18UR72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 13}

0

4.46907677486498

True

play

NO

public

1646854904161

Conner Gagliano

This market resolves to "YES" if Chile nationalizes any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry within 1 year. The market will resolves to "NO" if Chile does not. For reference, currently, Chile is writing a new Constitution and the constituent assembly is debating a provision that could lead to privatization....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 50.34957795751619, "YES": 16.553730712440625}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1680929384990

380

ConnerGagliano

1682150152164

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi41zqskI0Ixvy-lTJsqyNyuWyrLALLdVhByZ0=s96-c

22

1650314590674

0

6

8

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486597}]

["politics-default"]

1678428982706

1682150148834

0.01

0.1342950811381237

n57WzNjrNTFdGs4ciWAn

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1342950811381237

will-i-be-able-to-make-a-post-on-tr

97.58746080035846

{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 8.912539199641543}

Will I be able to make a post on Truth Social before the end of March 2022

1648796340000

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 8.5}

0

5.245607719698832

True

play

NO

public

1646870799101

April

Resolves positive if I am able to send a message on Truth Social any time in March. I am currently #224,414 in the waitlist

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 52.488998854521896, "YES": 20.673471026402233}

{"creatorFee": 0.3565015679856617, "platformFee": 0.08912539199641542, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

0

1648880747770

100

April

1646870799101

0

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

6

1715658653896

0

1

0.1342950811381237

0.2030844797321335

ZJLhnqaFTTi6Nvi69PJG

{"NO": 113.72877190362067, "YES": 853.1322117703073}

0

will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-6fac2d0f67bc

1856.275927400878

{"NO": 134.0694786943348, "YES": 80.77349351466819}

Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?

1672549140000

PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92

cpmm-1

{"NO": 137, "YES": 81}

0

3.245631578667796

True

play

NO

public

1646879014677

Oliver S

Inspired by the SK election results, but can be an increase in tensions with anyone. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-conservative-opposition-candidate-yoon-elected-president-2022-03-09/ YES: An incident involving multiple deaths and escalation from the other country.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 177.33699481925285, "YES": 121.28282097238309}

{"creatorFee": 1.4313105085759907, "platformFee": 0.1284072371488853, "liquidityFee": 0.5810217554334913}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1672590764365

180.58102175543348

OliverS

1672564342745

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c

23

1650314647881

0

1

21

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will-manifold-have-3000-bets-placed

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Will Manifold have >=3000 bets placed on any day in March?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 392, "YES": 181}

0

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True

play

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1646883623438

Isaac King

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/analytics. Resolves to N/A if the data becomes inaccessible for any reason.

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100

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in-what-month-this-year-will-manifo

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{"NO": 10, "YES": 10.000000000000004}

In what month this year will Manifold cross 1000 daily active users?

1673856000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}

0

2.2477108638179626

True

play

MKT

public

1646883888269

Isaac King

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will-any-of-my-markets-have-a-pool

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{"NO": 4.596430774694483, "YES": 46}

Will any of my markets have a pool of at least M$ 1000 by the end of March?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 4, "YES": 46}

0

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play

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1646886322692

Isaac King

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100

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will-ron-desantis-be-the-winner-of

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{"NO": 13.58721764998893, "YES": 157}

Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the next Florida gubernatorial election, to be held on November 8, 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 13, "YES": 157}

0

10.187853456143948

True

play

YES

public

1646892665853

Johnny

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0

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will-viktor-orban-be-the-next-prime

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Will Viktor Orbán be the next Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 election, held on April 3, 2022?

1649088000000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 120, "YES": 5142}

0

4.624572616705684

True

play

YES

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1646892742354

Johnny

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TheSkeward

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was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when

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Was it an unpleasant surprise when trades made by market creators became retroactively public?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1053, "YES": 2401}

0

4.632312466846083

True

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CANCEL

public

1646921517779

Blazer

This market is a pure opinion poll and will resolve N/A. Comments encouraged.

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BlazingDarkness

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0

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will-my-weekly-calorie-average-be-a

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{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 157.49570902391062}

Will my weekly calorie average be at or below my goal for the next four weeks?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 47.5, "YES": 157.5}

0

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public

1646925732186

Stephen Malina

I've currently plateaued in weight loss at ~170 lbs. (5'9" height) and been stuck here for about 5-6 months. I currently use MacroFactor (https://www.strongerbyscience.com/macrofactor/) to track calories most days. However, my compliance with my target has been quite bad over the past two months. Inspired by the questi...

BINARY

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1648638405302

100

StephenMalina

1646925732186

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1

will-someone-not-in-the-top-5-of-th

100

{"NO": 90, "YES": 10}

Will someone not in the top 5 of the top 5 traders be the top trader when this market closes?

1646932992290

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 90, "YES": 10}

0

5.018922567828004

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646932923182

Undox

Top 5 as a write: John Beshir Gurkenglas Matthew Barnett Natália Mendonça Pepe title gore. shutting this down

BINARY

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0

1646932992290

100

Undox

1646932923182

0

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1

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1

will-someone-outside-the-top-5-trad

100

{"NO": 90, "YES": 10}

Will someone outside the top 5 traders be #1 when this market closes?

1646956745335

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 90, "YES": 10}

0

5.018922567828004

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646933360478

Undox

Top 5 as a write: John Beshir, Gurkenglas, Matthew Barnett, Natália Mendonça, Pepe Resolves yes if the top spot on the leaderboard is not one of those people at the time this market is currently set to resolve.

BINARY

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1646956745335

100

Undox

1646933360478

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

1715657636104

0

0.1

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what-will-inflation-be-in-march

1027.3182526860883

What will inflation be in March?

1649739540000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.668743101085248

True

play

400719cd1d99

public

1646935981485

Manifold

This market resolves to the month-over-month change in CPI for March 2022 according to https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Answers must be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. For context, February's inflation was 0.8% and January's was 0.6%. This market resolves on April 12th after the next CPI report is released. Apr 1...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 33.6494733882615, "platformFee": 8.412368347065375, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649780489535

1439.999999999999

Manifold

1646935981485

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

15

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564859}]

["economics-default"]

1646947116747

{"400719cd1d99": 100}

True

0.5652428847331874

wJztrEiNsJ3zFQ6mrTR3

{"NO": 53.26869085759145, "YES": 185.79073046312473}

0

conditional-on-embracing-the-antise

465.5395766770696

{"NO": 62, "YES": 109.64287058667648}

Conditional on EMBRACING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory?

1658298703756

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 62, "YES": 110}

0

2.860243752800635

True

play

NO

public

1646936425112

Daniel Reeves

Anti-Settings Principle: https://blog.bmndr.co/choices Stay tuned for specifics on what "staying on its rocketship trajectory" means but it will be something ascertainable from https://manifold.markets/analytics This is one half of a decision market. The idea is to see which choice would yield the better outcome for ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 112.5749730834541, "YES": 129.57042002415267}

{"creatorFee": 6.51040112831253, "platformFee": 0.6665762704505962, "liquidityFee": 3.9780298579041657}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1658298703756

103.97802985790416

dreev

1658193027059

0

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19

1650314808900

0

1658193025828

1647130659817

0.2715437726084389

0.4424305018897665

1YCMQ6ThgL9Exjkttrf8

{"NO": 30.863069229218695, "YES": 478.98914944949286}

0.048641151981574475

conditional-on-rejecting-the-antise

682.9529020985033

{"NO": 65, "YES": 68.04709790149677}

Conditional on REJECTING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory?

1658298684501

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 65, "YES": 68}

0

3.605183390896217

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646936431827

Daniel Reeves

Anti-Settings Principle: https://blog.bmndr.co/choices Stay tuned for specifics on what "staying on its rocketship trajectory" means but it will be something ascertainable from https://manifold.markets/analytics This is one half of a decision market. The idea is to see which choice would yield the better outcome for ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 99.25227411127602, "YES": 88.60464118174848}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}

0

1658298684501

101.91450331126136

dreev

1658298680383

0

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1658298666938

1658298675939

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6274693485145504

will-tis-market-titlebe-handled-cor

364.60610542204813

{"NO": 93.52759837469156, "YES": 139.86629620326033}

Wiļ̨̦̮̰̗̗̥̥̮̲̖̗̭̗̖̖̖̖̖̗̰̱̲̯̣̥̥̄̅̇̈̉̏̀̉̄̀̀̊̏̏̋̌̍̎̎͜͜͜͜͜͡͞͞͡l tһis₂ market t̲͎̩̱͔́̋̀itle "be’ handled <correctly?‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎ ‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏...

1647028800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 99, "YES": 140}

0

4.808852751007151

True

play

NO

public

1646937652584

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if, after a day, it seems like everything worked as intended, or close to it. Mar 10, 10:42am: Oh no, they truncated my ~1000 invisible characters at the end. Mar 11, 9:37pm: Resolving to no since I don't think text overlapping other text is intended behavior (even if it's of such low relevance that t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 142.45324863755786, "YES": 184.87901116043267}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

0

1647063896720

100

IsaacKing

1646937652584

0

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1

16

1715658189046

0

1

1647010271879

0.6274693485145504

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what-happens-if-player-a-casts-ange

87.5621446179002

What happens if Player A casts Anger of the Gods and Player B controls a 2/2 creature enchanted by Hyena Umbra?

1647028800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.086910686078355

True

play

bbf8fb311566

public

1646938844776

Isaac King

I'll pick one of the 4 answers I started the market with, unless none of them are correct in which case I'll chose the most correct of the remaining answers.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647037591637

360

IsaacKing

1646938844776

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a9a11ec6d8eb", "prob": 0.014714537963507945, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21578445412206193, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.448927048013266, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938844955, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

1646950156400

{"bbf8fb311566": 100}

True

HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB

what-secretlychosen-number-will-be

40

What secretly-chosen number will be most popular?

1647115200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.419168393434646

True

play

56a05ce12f70

public

1646939897146

Isaac King

Resolves to the number with the most responses in this form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1TQh6qnio-vUMs_QHZ0y3XB3FGSzOK1KmnPRHZl9fkAI/edit It requires a Google sign-in so as to prevent someone spamming multiple responses. If multiple numbers are tied, I'll resolve to all of them. Mar 12, 8:30pm: Heh, someone sne...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647146007200

660

IsaacKing

1646939897146

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a5908d72367a", "prob": 0.0625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.183411578007822, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.75117367011733, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939897315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, ...

1

1646944490724

{"56a05ce12f70": 100}

True

0.8681695053811976

QC2WmlZF8EnhKtrGLs9B

{"NO": 23071.180744984715, "YES": 134.52172799169418}

1

elon-musk-will-have-fathered-at-lea

25099.365464342343

{"NO": 30.820478590345473, "YES": 39.984884338851145}

Elon Musk will have fathered at least 10 children by 2030

1697168266408

a2ZMgkoSxoW9PH90sLFiP6y6qy32

cpmm-1

{"NO": 19, "YES": 41}

0

2.48001173256541

True

play

YES

public

1646947407649

Eric Jang

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, SpaceX, etc. will have sired / fathered at least 10 biological children by the year 2030. As of 2022-03-10, he has 7. To qualify for the count, the children must be at least in the 2nd trimester. Mar 10, 1:23pm: Musk's first-born child Nevada was not counted initially at the time of mar...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 38.757518742612156, "YES": 59.257031415496826}

{"creatorFee": 3.6018454576710512, "platformFee": 0.010151156611488545, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1697168266408

300

EricJang

1710451921787

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx2InKhVMU6Ww6eTGrwheYzGHXU4BCwlkQhe-aMA=s96-c

27

1650314578206

0

21

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Musk Family", "slug": "musk-children", "groupId": "5f0a8f51-6496-4fd3-ab25-2fbb48f39fe7"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "musk-children"]

1696686317943

1696594373477

False

1

rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G

the-pyramid-scheme

10600.787972148362

The Pyramid Scheme

1647557940000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.666510009847074

True

play

MKT

public

1646953541683

Gurkenglas

Buy any legal answer at the listed price (and don't sell before the previous holder) and you may legally submit an answer at an equal or higher price. You may also buy or sell existing answers at any time, of course. This market resolves such that each *legal* answer pays out money proportionally to its *pool* at close...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 29.031342308346627, "platformFee": 7.257835577086657, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647565537433

760.0000000000002

Gurkenglas

1646953541683

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4af9faa7a114", "prob": 0.0027836880585751754, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.011231112140206435, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.023384801668416, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646953541956, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1

1647520134459

{"53ad4d75580b": 3, "5cec09d2ab2f": 11, "6a0c5947f144": 4, "bae291afb8a2": 2, "c1baaebb9d30": 80}

True

0.09711911628642847

iM93SADJoZHPtLJ3objD

{"NO": 88.2425306383987, "YES": 325.2045154638304}

0

will-ukrainian-army-invade-belarus

933.6062829801311

{"NO": 569, "YES": 63}

Will Ukrainian army invade Belarus by the September 1, 2022?

1662015540000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 569, "YES": 63}

0

8.098119920929989

True

play

NO

public

1646966851828

Oleg S

This resolves to YES if by September 1, 2022 Ukrainian army invades and fights on the territory of Belarus.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 600.5373743580411, "YES": 196.9267021004262}

{"creatorFee": 1.255845338393398, "platformFee": 0.013328756470986655, "liquidityFee": 0.07997253882591994}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1662050638930

100.07997253882591

OlegStroganov

1661717122224

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c

25

1650314722226

0

1

26

1661717122146

1647117474696

0.02835967070320198

0.11742870666073654

2jhLYgZe3DxXeHB4T32F

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.11742870666073654

should-scientific-journals-ban-russ

235.99999999999997

{"NO": 128.00000000000006, "YES": 26}

Should scientific journals ban Russian scientists from publishing their research?

1647055275756

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 128, "YES": 26}

0

4.895492813478947

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646966968849

Oleg S

Mar 11, 6:59am: Clarification: here, "Russian scientists" = "Scientists working in Russia". The question is not about scientists who emigrated long time ago, but about scientists who work in Russia right now. The question will be resolved to YES/NO if there is an explicit statement about banning/not banning made by at...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 149.1417312508474, "YES": 38.3803595671015}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647055275756

100

OlegStroganov

1646966968849

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c

10

1715656928781

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468004}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522191}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5s...

["politics-default", "science-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1647049279593

False

0.11742870666073654

0.47802877813258393

OlkJWU63fdvtoaRTM5U2

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.47802877813258393

will-it-ever-be-tranche-time-again

48203.87962716284

{"NO": 7306, "YES": 4536.120372837158}

Will it ever be TRANCHE TIME again?????????????

1647568059760

jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 7306, "YES": 4582}

0

4.619333667260382

True

play

YES

public

1646967179935

Spindle

All the tulip speculators are wondering when it will be TRANCHE TIME again. This market will resolve to YES if it is ever TRANCHE TIME. The market will remain open until October 13th, 2022, when it will be TRANCHE TIME Close date updated to 2022-10-21 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 8552.033244322705, "YES": 8191.371435663628}

{"creatorFee": 290.40481491348635, "platformFee": 72.60120372837159, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632}

0

1647568059760

100

Spindle

1646967179935

0

https://firebasestorage.…669-a627f99c07a6

11

1715658089942

0

1647568044723

0.47802877813258393

gg0okN5idFKPyiJ4HO8Y

what-will-be-the-most-represented-d

100

What will be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on 2022-03-10?

1646971266304

EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1646971216170

andrei klepatch

I will choose the answer based on results published at https://magic.wizards.com/en/content/deck-lists-magic-online-products-game-info. In instances where the archetype of a deck is ambiguous I will use my best judgement as the tiebreaker. Market closes at the start of said event and will resolve when results are publi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1646971266304

220

andreiklepatch

1646971216170

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0a0dc1abeae4", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gg0okN5idFKPyiJ4HO8Y", "createdTime": 1646971216488, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

True

ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0

what-will-be-the-most-represented-d-257e13de8849

250

What will be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on 2022-03-13?

1647180000000

EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.797109350291603

True

play

07024ae44ad8

public

1646971360314

andrei klepatch

I will choose the answer based on results published at https://magic.wizards.com/en/content/deck-lists-magic-online-products-game-info. In instances where the archetype of a deck is ambiguous I will use my best judgement as the tiebreaker. Market closes at the start of said event and will resolve when results are publi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647309045208

320

andreiklepatch

1646971360314

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "45a4ec4f73f4", "prob": 0.15999999999999998, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.776161482572455, "userId": "EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 51.324847783505405, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0", "createdTime": 1646971360551, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1646986671017

{"07024ae44ad8": 100}

True

0.8163233254957967

cmGWOQUy2PgK1wE9tueO

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-i-be-able-to-successfully-do-m

115.38004843990416

{"NO": 21.826707008813436, "YES": 82.79324455128241}

Will I be able to successfully do my taxes this year using Cash App Taxes?

1650092340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 21, "YES": 84}

0

4.622844094415732

True

play

YES

public

1646978324498

Austin

Daylen and I have a friendly $10 bet; he's skeptical that the free Cash App from Square will be able to fully handle my tax situation. We'll see! (The most complicated thing I have is a new LLC I filed for https://oneword.games)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 44.837941876293975, "YES": 94.52567097692565}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1652450734507

100

Austin

1646978324498

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

1650314674338

0

1

1647446001110

0.8163233254957967

0.39769237636688126

ErrlhVHPmaTOlyTi5ApN

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-i-get-a-job-in-a-russian-speak

117

{"NO": 65, "YES": 52}

Will I get a job in a Russian speaking country this year?

1663066091487

wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 65, "YES": 52}

0

2.893742181973077

True

play

YES

public

1646991273594

Samuel Millerick

I have been learning Russian for some time. My plans for this year were to travel to a Russian speaking country (likely Russia although I had also considered Ukraine) and teach English whilst learning the language better. I still hope to carry out this plan if possible but obviously events may have rendered it less lik...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 90.80269820054909, "YES": 73.78417174774005}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1663066091487

100

SamuelMillerick

1663066142925

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c

6

1650313865094

0

7

1661419540745

1663066134400

0.39769237636688126

0.6034174831164886

1nw3EEfldcRL60RmqIyL

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6034174831164886

will-the-person-whos-meant-to-be-ta

339.3114582896651

{"NO": 41.839850279988056, "YES": 124.00000000000001}

Will the person who's meant to be taking over my tenancy fall through?

1648477125100

Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 51, "YES": 124}

0

4.8779366932041945

True

play

NO

public

1646995681418

Ferruginous Duck

I live in a flatshare with friends, and we're contracted until November. However, I've signed a new contract for a place with my girlfriend starting on the 1st of April. My current landlord says he'll release me from the first contract if I find someone to replace me, and pay an admin fee. I've lined up a girlfriend of...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 104.43794027693849, "YES": 128.82509170305315}

{"creatorFee": 4.787541668413397, "platformFee": 1.1968854171033492, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1648477125100

100

FerruginousDuck

1646995681418

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-22faf69bd4b8

7

1715656903297

0

1647014179502

0.6034174831164886

eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM

looking-for-compilationoverview-of

2722.1442332821043

Looking for compilation/overview of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, will reward the best ones found

1647644340000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.662596775930437

True

play

MKT

public

1647001799699

Account deletion requested

I will use probability for rewarding the best ones found. Requirements: sources provided in material, I am not interested in out-of-context video clips that could be from other wars or even movies. Mar 11, 1:30pm: Existence of video/photos materials are preferred

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 16.220659975027004, "platformFee": 4.055164993756751, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647812965564

400.00000000000006

Accountdeletionrequested

1647001799699

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "67c29df86a03", "prob": 0.15144524043748953, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.089848049691858, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.13693687703087, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM", "createdTime": 1647001799893, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1647008482046

{"74a7d234bb38": 74.81748051118726, "b7fc394932fe": 25.182519488812744}

True

0.06526680309516164

maOXMZ3rtItuCQD4LGBq

{"NO": 119.04186299943697, "YES": 1245.7177446206372}

0

will-manifold-markets-get-sued-by-a

1871.4411732931076

{"NO": 382.5011799673211, "YES": 74}

Will Manifold Markets get sued by any kind of governmental institution in 2022?

1672441140000

7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 388, "YES": 74}

9.425605682870438

True

play

NO

public

1647012994818

hagi

Note that this does include the governments of other countries than the US as well. Let's just say for simplicities sake, that they have to be a regular member of the UN. (Sorry Liberland) Mar 11, 4:36pm: Related question https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-manifold-launch-a-crypto-token-9b99f6930706b

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 438.45565995373954, "YES": 127.08609117227206}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1676744042445

140

hagi

1676744036098

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c

24

1650314747456

0

10

24

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670484661}]

["please-resolve"]

1671922954562

1676744034543

0.01

0.67999872000896

hs7XrdV1MO4PdqWjjjOf

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.67999872000896

will-congressman-jeff-fortenberry-b

125

{"NO": 50, "YES": 75}

Will Congressman Jeff Fortenberry be convicted of a felony by March 31st?

1648184426379

rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 75}

0

4.950451531069062

True

play

YES

public

1647016506828

Tobias Pace

Congressman Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) has been charged with lying to the FBI in connection to an investigation into illegal campaign contributions. His trial is scheduled to start on March 16th and last 3-5 days. This market resolves yes if he is found guilty or agrees to plead guilty by March 31st. It resolves no in any...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 103.07836824717397}

{"creatorFee": 1.9999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.49999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1648184426379

100

TobiasPace

1647016506828

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c

3

1715658549039

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500571}]

["politics-default"]

1647017865666

0.67999872000896

0.6719863267048679

89iK6eAlxUQlWFjvHlWN

{"NO": 1714.2970489125319, "YES": 26.346252926312907}

1

will-russia-and-ukraine-still-be-at

2999.904736235016

{"NO": 477.1503536893246, "YES": 641.7947176920268}

Will Russia and Ukraine still be at war on July 10?

1657486800000

ARMEVhOiWvaqFvLASFGwHkDwohI3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 482, "YES": 649}

0

4.863743532988857

True

play

YES

public

1647046337975

Alex Mennen

Resolves yes if, on July 10, there is still ongoing fighting between Russian armed forces and Ukrainian armed forces, or if there was recent fighting, with widespread expectation of renewed fighting. A seemingly-stable ceasefire will result in the question resolving no, even if there is no formal peace treaty. If Ukrai...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 644.3913442352482, "YES": 914.7677880940332}

{"creatorFee": 4.370639826508145, "platformFee": 0.4191610741661832, "liquidityFee": 1.809070970069499}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1657492167779

101.8090709700695

AlexMennen

1657472281311

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyFM2z_17VRw8GAHhGexJCyKLxup92j73FsxTn3=s96-c

39

1650313816604

0

1

1657472280025

1648648128227

0.9925540782337166

0.32476834818320555

cimoLjq79Uy6NAPWfwSW

{"NO": 68.47422411311706, "YES": 322.9912637314233}

0

will-manifold-implement-retroactive

1121.254460738557

{"NO": 168.9392667425751, "YES": 118.99135596228442}

Will Manifold implement retroactive public goods funding by June 1?

1654153140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 174, "YES": 116}

0

3.171665258274964

True

play

NO

public

1647051369949

Austin

Alternatively called "Project Shares." The idea would be 1) to let people create & trade shares of a project in M$, and 2) pay out useful projects from a community pool. This lets creators of community initiatives to raise money for their work via startup-like equity funding. Vitalik describes this concept: https://m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 240.37396601913701, "YES": 158.50859854810503}

{"creatorFee": 7.339488637731207, "platformFee": 1.2385277441097564, "liquidityFee": 7.156132983876545}

{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}

0

1654406009034

107.15613298387656

Austin

1654149929406

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

25

1650314673862

0

1

1654149929226

1653577509726

0.09253134631448902

0.05856460190376812

LaT47TcRit6wOxBquW8a

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05856460190376812

will-scientific-journals-ban-scient

165

{"NO": 153, "YES": 12}

Will scientific journals ban scientists from Russia?

1648912368689

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 153, "YES": 12}

0

4.8791088296505905

True

play

NO

public

1647055451435

Oleg S

The question is about scientists who are now working in Russia (not the ones who emigrated long ago). The question will be resolved to YES/NO if there is an explicit statement about banning/not banning publications made by at least 2 major publishers. The question resolves to probability if statements are conflicting o...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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Was the Jarun drone Ukrainian?

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 128}

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CANCEL

public

1647055613455

Jenny

On March 11, an aircraft crashed in Jarun neighborhood of Zagreb, Croatia. It is suspected to be a Soviet reconnaissance drone Tu-141 Strizh. Ukraine says it's Russian, Russia says it's Ukrainian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb Resolves YES if ...

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Will my till be over the expected count at the end of my shift?

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public

1647091155830

Em ✨

Cashiering. Sometimes people leave behind their change, or I make mistakes.

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How many senators will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson as a Supreme Court Justice?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 6}

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CANCEL

public

1647097124767

aps

This market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm President Biden's appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the US Supreme Court. If 50 senators vote to confirm, this market resolves 50%. If 100 senators vote to confirm, it resolves 100%. If 30 vote to confirm, it resolves 30%. I'm not a US politics ...

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aps

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How many senators will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson as a Supreme Court Justice? (higher ante version)

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 107, "YES": 113}

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MKT

public

1647100324766

aps

This market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm President Biden's appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the US Supreme Court. If 50 senators vote to confirm, this market resolves 50%. If 100 senators vote to confirm, it resolves 100%. If 30 vote to confirm, it resolves 30%. I'm not a US politics ...

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aps

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Test market, will resolve N/A

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{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

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CANCEL

public

1647102411968

aps

This is to test something

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Test market pt. 2

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{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

5.018922567828004

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play

CANCEL

public

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aps

Testing, will resolve N/A

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aps

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