p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.4378453323612931 | fkPALbIUD9KNencb97MJ | {"NO": 97.35241753064467, "YES": 103.98316922321196} | 0 | will-my-next-job-be-obtained-via-re | 17 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 5} | Will my next job be obtained via referral? (Sam's Moving Series) | 1656734340000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.8125515646461685 | True | play | NO | public | 1646704501229 | Sam | My partner recently accepted a job in the Bay Area, so now I'm in the market for a new role as well. Moving to the area in June. Will my next job be thanks to a referral or good old fashioned random apps?
*Want to move this market? I'm open to referrals from fellow MMers...*
More about my career:
- Early 30s, no advanced degree, a decade of experience in ecology research, environmental sustainability, climate action and program management. Currently a decently accomplished sustainability manager at a large non-tech org for last 3+ years
- Mostly cold applying to roles, having moderate success
- Don't know many people in SF or tech but attempting to network
- Recruiters message me on LinkedIn about 4-5x a month (classify as referral?)
- Looking to work in tech, start-ups, EA or conservation; remote or hybrid preferred
- Will likely leave current job in June regardless | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.74761512884049, "YES": 8.602906503037214} | {"creatorFee": 0.10098466072833763, "platformFee": 0.01683077678805627, "liquidityFee": 0.10098466072833763} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1678900359061 | 100.10098466072834 | sam | 1652281155955 | 0 | 3 | 1650314702741 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1652281154531 | 1648081406513 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27474937675004313 | ZYqYaHyO9auU8jcJQTQ9 | {"NO": 89.22296650350954, "YES": 449.0659976618841} | 0 | will-i-break-up-with-my-primary-thi | 417.3583797138338 | {"NO": 19.5, "YES": 12.5} | Will I break up with my primary this year? | 1672559940000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 3.013479493570256 | True | play | NO | public | 1646715766239 | Em ✨ | Me: hypothetically, how could I personally contribute most to the possibility of social drama on manifold
CounterMe: directly bet on relationships in a way that passive-aggressively implies I expect them to screw things up
Me: 🤔
CounterMe: you have a problem
CounterMe: ... but darnit I'm curious now | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 26.674688386183632, "YES": 17.678376636444877} | {"creatorFee": 0.6094689923733536, "platformFee": 0.03400045095807801, "liquidityFee": 0.20400270574846804} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672607374640 | 140.20400270574845 | hamnox | 1672047467633 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 8 | 1650314649275 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1672047467479 | 1651007665929 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35 | 74zwEZbe4xtK6CeEncI2 | {"NO": 63.84755842486409, "YES": 230.07788805172925} | 0 | will-r-ramesh-finish-his-phd-by-the | 184.42913630127205 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 8.75} | Will R. Ramesh finish his PhD by the end of September? | 1664607540000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 16.25, "YES": 8.75} | 0 | 3.2479276914455935 | True | play | NO | public | 1646716435184 | Em ✨ | I am so confused about the timing to expect. COVID delayed things a lot. Am resolving this according to when he tells me it's a done deal. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 20.156450596521204, "YES": 14.790791065727351} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1664628940972 | 100 | hamnox | 1664602571671 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 1650313809958 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1664602571563 | 0.12999999999999995 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.008286720554383557 | Ee0hfYl4MdXPiz0GZBu4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.008286720554383557 | will-fighter-jets-supplied-by-polan-19a874a509b0 | 2446.830977953937 | {"NO": 1691.534680480446, "YES": 113.63434156561712} | Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 17 March 2022? | 1647687600000 | AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1685, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.642434619297363 | True | play | NO | public | 1646719408765 | Ben J. Smith | This market resolves positively if reliable sources report that fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022 11:59 PM local Ukraine time.
Must be corroborated by multiple reliable sources, i.e., international media other than Ukrainian or Russian sources. Jets may be flown or transported by any other method, by nationals of any country including Ukraine, but they must be jets physically transferred from Poland's possession into the physical territory of the Ukraine.
Planes in Polish possession flying over Ukraine but not landing in Ukraine will resolve this market with YES.
Correction: above should read "17 March 2022", not "10 March 2022".
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-surprised-polands-decision-give-it-fighter-jets-ukraine-2022-03-08/
If a plane is transferred by Poland to the possession of a third country, and then into Ukraine, for the purposes of this contract, that will still fulfill the condition of "fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine", because the jet was still supplied by Poland with the intention it is transferred to Ukraine, regardless of whether Poland publicly acknowledges this intention. The plane must still enter Ukraine by the deadline set in the market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1797.674992678078, "YES": 164.32720162425147} | {"creatorFee": 4.949399032485342, "platformFee": 1.2373497581213355, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647718549665 | 100 | B | 1646719408765 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c | 23 | 1715657822678 | 0 | 1 | 1646860712240 | 0.008286720554383557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0 | which-of-these-interventions-will-i | 8500.465768586018 | Which of these interventions will I rate highest on v2 of Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting? | 1648796340000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.621939836492963 | True | basic | a5b07efa6ac6 | public | 1646725344584 | Scott Alexander | I am working on an updated version of Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting, which I will post sometime in the next few months.
Below, I've listed some interventions I'm considering. Right now, one of these seems most promising (if that changes, I'll figure something out). Your job is to guess which one that will be.
I can't prevent other people from adding new options, but keep in mind I will not be evaluating them and they have no chance of winning. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 242.38185557364923, "platformFee": 60.59546389341231, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650435357404 | 4540.000000000002 | ScottAlexander | 1646725344584 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 83 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a8da21c3a84e", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006139357454205878, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.063539369648733, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725344915, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:22.733", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 0.13714285714285715, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ffaf58315808", "prob": 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"probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 57.118892143349655, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6974764e541d", "prob": 0.05882509797251222, "text": "Supplement with Vitamin D", "index": 3, "poolNo": 16.303186671277896, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 260.8435964738355, "textFts": "'d':4 'supplement':1 'vitamin':3", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725392843, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:08.428", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 65.21182289524212, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a5b07efa6ac6", "prob": 0.23364106377557142, "text": "Supplement with choline", "index": 4, "poolNo": 89.13335343848713, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 292.36359747467066, "textFts": "'cholin':3 'supplement':1", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725402241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:08.855", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 161.42907998950315, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7837f369e73b", "prob": 0.027472434037680828, "text": "Supplement with nicotinamide mononucleotide (for fathers)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 3.456431830043201, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 122.35811468237738, "textFts": "'father':6 'mononucleotid':4 'nicotinamid':3 'supplement':1", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725440844, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:08.855", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 20.565079193921076, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d9a6300843a6", "prob": 0.031995731616494216, "text": "Avoid touching receipt paper", "index": 6, "poolNo": 4.121763491428576, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 124.70052883283108, "textFts": "'avoid':1 'paper':4 'receipt':3 'touch':2", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725451945, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:12.931", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 22.67126125968733, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6547c8f8bde", "prob": 0.23074562142732727, "text": "Eat plenty of oily fish", "index": 7, "poolNo": 185.5924433079731, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 618.7237649908047, "textFts": "'eat':1 'fish':5 'oili':4 'plenti':2", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725481672, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.194", 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'natur':1 'vs':2", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725543982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.197", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 67.4231991224881, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a893823259be", "prob": 0.01665692554663398, "text": "Supplement lutein and zeaxanthin", "index": 10, "poolNo": 1.2759654387309256, "userId": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.32673264973904, "textFts": "'lutein':2 'supplement':1 'zeaxanthin':4", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1646725614667, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.197", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 9.803790464590286, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5bd079a71416", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Avoiding heavy impact 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"textFts": "'avoid':1 'bad':24 'chocol':15 'cream':17 'dinner':19 'drink':14 'exampl':28 'ferment':29 'fine':8 'food':4,11,30 'frozen':18 'high':2,9 'ice':16 'like':12,23 'mayb':26 'muffin':20 'ok':32 'raw/cooked/frozen':5 'sausag':21 'sugari':13 'thing':6 'though':25 'transform':3,10", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1647283774936, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.197", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 0.13714285714285715, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aa067da70452", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Do not drink anything with sugar in it or at least try to limit sugary drinks", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.006139357454205878, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.063539369648733, "textFts": "'anyth':4 'drink':3,16 'least':11 'limit':14 'sugar':6 'sugari':15 'tri':12", "contractId": "5UwF4uUYc3FjHjgxzbg0", "createdTime": 1647283813881, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:42.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650435357000, "totalLiquidity": 0.13714285714285715, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648578236916 | {"a5b07efa6ac6": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yAoOSdqhl4ftBPwlFIzK | which-party-will-win-the-2022-ontar-e6f4252bd0f7 | 1850.7165234848121 | Which party will win the 2022 Ontario provincial election? | 1654219800000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.646593733940053 | True | play | df95ae166f29 | public | 1646727284775 | Athena | Whichever party is able to form government in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario following the election occurring on (or before) June 2nd, 2022 will be chosen as the answer to this market. If a minority government is formed, then the governing party holding the greatest number of seats at the time that the 43rd Parliament commences will be chosen. If no government is formed, then the party who wins a plurality of seats will be chosen. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.786246697611096, "platformFee": 1.446561674402774, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655412615493 | 500 | Athena | 1710208048830 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4299afa13d5d", "prob": 0.004091895414118765, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03672021283488343, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.937168197944924, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yAoOSdqhl4ftBPwlFIzK", "createdTime": 1646727284969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.461", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655412615000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5728653579766272, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "78c96fb9fd55", "prob": 0.0020131340901132764, "text": "New Democratic Party / NDP", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.019891581921674742, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.86101104615685, "textFts": "'democrat':2 'ndp':4 'new':1 'parti':3", "contractId": "yAoOSdqhl4ftBPwlFIzK", "createdTime": 1646727354601, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.461", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655412615000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4428894998249208, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ac6b3f2c77c4", "prob": 0.0027303533342941575, "text": "Liberal Party", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.03143002013974339, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.47990799790054, "textFts": "'liber':1 'parti':2", "contractId": "yAoOSdqhl4ftBPwlFIzK", "createdTime": 1646727385176, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.462", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655412615000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6006777335447147, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "df95ae166f29", "prob": 0.9911646171614739, "text": "Progressive Conservative Party / PCs", "index": 3, "poolNo": 39.30382990113133, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.35035994847285024, "textFts": "'conserv':2 'parti':3 'pcs':4 'progress':1", "contractId": "yAoOSdqhl4ftBPwlFIzK", "createdTime": 1646727413595, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.461", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655412615000, "totalLiquidity": 3.710860792180979, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6"}, {"name": "Ontario", "slug": "ontario", "groupId": "9K9niz7vv4KxOqU2o7pn"}] | ["politics-default", "canada", "ontario"] | 1654219543993 | 1655473988087 | {"df95ae166f29": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2868447598146482 | 3Y4uDSoXzF7A73ltqlLZ | {"NO": 105.82553986276565, "YES": 261.4711343355403} | 0 | will-studio-high-sea-still-exist-by | 294.1523836992321 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 55} | Will Studio High Sea still exist by 2023 March 31? | 1680238800000 | V5LZY7JHCXX6hObOXWE9XBEunRH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 55} | 0 | 2.7732738330107773 | True | play | NO | public | 1646729887473 | comsynthus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Referring to the studio behind this Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/StudioHighSea. Also check out the first ~4 minutes of this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnnYCJNhw7w introducing the project. It's basically a guy trying to show how he can make money off of creative work without intellectual property rights over that work. As of the time this market was created, the Patreon currently has 214 backers and is earning $1,141 per month. At the time of resolution, Studio High Sea will be considered to still exist if it remains at least as successful as it is now and hasn't changed its mission. That means: - The Patreon still has at least 214 patrons and is earning at least $1,141 per month. If it drops below this but climbs back up by the time of resolution, that still counts. If the current Patreon page shuts down and they move to a different studio name or payment platform, the new one is the one that counts. If the payment model changes to something that's not a fixed amount per month, I will try to estimate their earnings in the last month. - The studio's main project is the production of some creative work normally protected by copyright. This could be the current webcomic Airlock Bound or something else. - The main project is released to the public under some license like Creative Commons or Copyleft that essentially waives the creator's copyright and allows other people to do whatever they want with it. This includes anyone being able to monetize derivative works or even plagiarize the original, but not necessarily apply their own copyright to derived works. - The creators do not attempt to control what other people do with their work. Calling someone out on social media is fine, but telling them to stop is not. Attempting a DMCA takedown or lawsuit is definitely not. If there is some weird case where the creators have to sue someone or face legal consequences themselves, an exception can be made. I don't know if such a situation is possible, but if that happens, it doesn't count. This market will resolve YES if all of the above conditions are met, and NO if any condition is clearly broken. Edge cases are open for discussion. If some major unforeseen event happens, like a complete overhaul of the way US copyright law works, this market will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.08785450498144, "YES": 79.53056016714582} | {"creatorFee": 0.18613365794160658, "platformFee": 0.031022276323601095, "liquidityFee": 0.18613365794160658} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1680239262504 | 140.1861336579416 | comsynthus | 1680239240622 | 0 | 8 | 1650313788940 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564069}] | ["economics-default"] | 1680165725914 | 1680239237774 | 0.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8921788519415089 | aw7mePrselgvuq82ubWU | {"NO": 1073.05653937875, "YES": 985.0254347730832} | 0.9001409591591572 | will-mdmaassisted-therapy-for-ptsd | 2947.489057228475 | {"NO": 12.999999999999998, "YES": 111.12188983369421} | Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030? | 1893474000000 | IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12.999999999999998, "YES": 111} | 9.757637264123793e-16 | 10.08185977389146 | False | basic | public | 1646730063806 | Athena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to 'YES' if the FDA announces approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD by January 1st, 2030. If approval is announced prior to market closing, then the market will resolve early. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: If neither of these conditions are met, then the market will resolve to 'NO'", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03699640306932861} | 0 | {"NO": 41.940743914480095, "YES": 116.82236849408332} | {"creatorFee": 7.242951983877758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1000 | Athena | 1717993404978 | 0.2 | 1 | 23 | 1650314661411 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1664698556584}] | ["health"] | 0.10668248929808309 | 1717993401743 | 1694854761840 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18080594196514427 | Xa74C1QCKXErKxRKLFMt | {"NO": 986.5323574978361, "YES": 1050.5199548938251} | 0.171683725140936 | if-ukraine-accepts-the-peace-deal-r | 787.3432962987985 | {"NO": 192.88015508307328, "YES": 47.71710349285475} | If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? | 2619298740000 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 191.3, "YES": 55.7} | 0 | 9.736643193165339 | False | basic | public | 1646733408809 | Arie Arie | Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows
- Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory
- Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk
- Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO
- Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above. Or if the year ends without ceasefire
This question resolves "NO" If
- Ukraine complies to these terms
- Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms
- Ukraine has not broken these terms
- Russia violates the treaty anyway
within 30 years of signing.
If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market
Mar 8, 1:58pm: It will also resolve N/A if Ukraine is made to accept other significant conditions (installing a puppet leader, giving up territory outside of the Donbas). But minor conditions (respecting minority rights for Russian speakers) don't trigger a N/A, Unsure about which conditions count as major? feel free to comment! | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 211.44503967075238, "YES": 114.79772309764279} | {"creatorFee": 0.16836174160687847, "platformFee": 0.04209043540171962, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1000 | ArieArie | 1680387019797 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 25 | 1650314631158 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1661613716124}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1661613719407}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1661613722698}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222302}] | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1680387019694 | 1665912379871 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | IpIAKkdqwzXNCkq18e7p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | will-the-linked-derivative-market-f | 250 | {"NO": 212.5, "YES": 37.5} | Will the linked derivative market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time? | 1646733968182 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 212.5, "YES": 37.5} | 0 | 4.797108686065087 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646733908505 | Undox | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-the-linked-market-fall-to-less\n\nThis question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.\n\nWe need more high volume degen markets for whales to gamble on. This may be one of them!\n\nMar 8, 9:05pm: Made a mistake might recreate later" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 230.4895333867679, "YES": 96.82497095352004} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646733968182 | 100 | Undox | 1646733908505 | 0 | 1 | 1715657920701 | 0 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | By6zk95oAGAtvEeFubUr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01 | this-market-is-a-grift-exploiting-l | 14 | {"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.10000000000000009} | This market is a grift exploiting lack of significant investment in 5 different options in https://manifold.markets/adam/which-market-will-make-me-the-most | 1646748129780 | AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.10000000000000009} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | YES | public | 1646747600021 | Angola Maldives | Gimme M$100, please >:) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.950869358503306, "YES": 1.0000999999999998} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1646748129780 | 100 | AngolaMaldives | 1646747600021 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c | 2 | 1715657741322 | 0 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0459363352740625 | Hq1hVUcpQiKTYpspBYeR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0459363352740625 | will-belarus-send-troops-to-ukraine | 1965.711383358818 | {"NO": 956.809360945295, "YES": 212.82787188869082} | Will Belarus send troops to Ukraine? | 1648764060000 | DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 965, "YES": 172} | 0 | 4.65696278521733 | True | play | NO | public | 1646749190083 | Luca Petrolati | This market resolves to YES if it's confermed by reputable media that Belarus sent troops to Ukraine by April 1 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1142.4579760593929, "YES": 250.68579665645973} | {"creatorFee": 8.470103223918876, "platformFee": 2.117525805979719, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1648767648064 | 100 | LucaPetrolati | 1646749190083 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c | 32 | 1715657890674 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480177}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226545}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | False | 0.0459363352740625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.004246679499722445 | gZMltb7uBtnK1jLIsh6n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.004246679499722445 | will-this-market-have-between-m-750 | 15852.682999498187 | {"NO": 12620.933263096844, "YES": 212.38373740496863} | Will this market have between M$ 7,500 and M$ 12,500 invested at close on 15th of March? | 1647388740000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12707, "YES": 195} | 0 | 4.619008904016207 | True | play | NO | public | 1646751501167 | nic | This market will resolve YES if at close between M$ 7,500 and M$ 12,500 are invested, inclusive. Close is at 23:59 UTC on 15th of March 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 12806.039514709924, "YES": 836.3030848273754} | {"creatorFee": 8.470440744281461, "platformFee": 2.1176101860703653, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647418018586 | 100 | nic_kup | 1646751501167 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 12 | 1715658524611 | 0 | 1 | 1646772364380 | 0.004246679499722445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.034478700423214735 | IVNYltM9yAI8ZzDlvQfS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.034478700423214735 | will-the-march-8-apple-event-get-at | 113.5298274754195 | {"NO": 100.4701725245805, "YES": 6} | Will the March 8 Apple event get at least 15M views on YouTube before April. | 1648750325681 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 101, "YES": 6} | 0 | 4.998623308332384 | True | play | NO | public | 1646759824992 | Passion Fruit | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUwg_JoNHpo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.95356640156018, "YES": 10.485816398791322} | {"creatorFee": 0.23543158531307545, "platformFee": 0.05885789632826886, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648750325681 | 100 | PassionFruit | 1646759824992 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 6 | 1715657907030 | 0 | 0.034478700423214735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4002482450274347 | 37kG7D74I8mEVoDmWNCT | {"NO": 167.98965489794324, "YES": 148.60959372704872} | 0.43000000000000027 | zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-ma | 224.04709556013051 | {"NO": 76.5, "YES": 29.5} | Zuranolone gets FDA approval for major depression | 1804568340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 76.5, "YES": 29.5} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646775352370 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for major depression, otherwise resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 82.22623061316868, "YES": 66.8958817876706} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 160 | Gabrielle | 1698112946266 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 9 | 1650313785396 | 0 | 8 | 1698112945961 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6734127567428905 | QrfWVTiIt5FvLJp0Mv1V | {"NO": 126.99999999999991, "YES": 116.71884442462846} | 1 | zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-po | 113.10167121499163 | {"NO": 37.5, "YES": 52.5} | Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression | 1704051206858 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37.5, "YES": 52.5} | 0 | 2.757264489087352 | True | play | YES | public | 1646775404298 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression, otherwise resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 51.72112721654469, "YES": 73.655312099332} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1704051206858 | 120 | Gabrielle | 1704051226524 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 5 | 1650314585173 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733675028}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1683841946293 | 1704051226044 | 0.69 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5968522797800501 | haYPRoJpypLcJHvE0Eb1 | {"NO": 105.06636481537939, "YES": 168.5110797895275} | 0.48000000000000004 | zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-so | 264.1529430328148 | {"NO": 66.5, "YES": 62.5} | Zuranolone gets FDA approval for some other condition | 1804568340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 66.5, "YES": 62.5} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646775464813 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if Zuranolone gets FDA approval for some other condition (ie. not postpartum depression or major depression), otherwise resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 79.39857052031856, "YES": 101.67165288481347} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 140 | Gabrielle | 1701700635239 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 8 | 1650314715425 | 0 | 7 | 1701700630622 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6125391088944903 | 5DASoJh5scYtkGxoEu01 | {"NO": 119.98741831811606, "YES": 119.987418318116} | 0.6125391088944904 | another-neurosteroid-gets-fda-appro | 116.18597151523156 | {"NO": 45.5, "YES": 43.5} | A neurosteroid other than Zuranolone gets FDA approval for a psychiatric indication | 1804568340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45.5, "YES": 43.5} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646775522840 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if Another neurosteroid (ie. any neurosteroid other than Zuranolone) gets FDA approval for a psychiatric indication, otherwise resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 55.62455393663845, "YES": 69.47724088037751} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 120 | Gabrielle | 1710347192748 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 1 | 5 | 1650313799438 | 0 | 4 | [] | [] | 1684483067717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6258888969197518 | CzsH1fd6qeOBXAaiZkV7 | {"NO": 111.13217079514568, "YES": 159.99999999999991} | 0.5374712267869293 | researchers-become-more-convinced-t | 131.89595002555606 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 47} | Researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin) | 1804568340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 47} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646775599082 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin), otherwise resolves NO.
Ultimate arbiter will be Scott Alexander if he opines on it at the time, otherwise will use my best judgement. | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 53.3299540652343, "YES": 71.25372972974819} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 140 | Gabrielle | 1707072838907 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 6 | 1650313851061 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733676163}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1707072838722 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5386685732000657 | pfFTWdFPfDWtsoD5yo6i | {"NO": 144.9992212326234, "YES": 135.83215043344111} | 0.5548514098470918 | the-scientific-consensus-is-still-t | 102.30038757499213 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 62} | The scientific consensus is still that allopregnanolone works by modulating GABA receptors in a way importantly different from benzodiazepines | 1804568340000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 62} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1646775664725 | Gabrielle | From the predictions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Will resolve YES if the scientific consensus is still that allopregnanolone works by modulating GABA receptors in a way importantly different from benzodiazepines, otherwise resolves NO.
Ultimate arbiter will be Scott Alexander if he opines on it at the time, otherwise will use my best judgement. | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 60.6799307852275, "YES": 65.10855551231343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 140 | Gabrielle | 1683602567292 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 6 | 1650314766995 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733676666}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1683602567144 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14999999999999997 | 0bMV5DGG3kV7u30zkrnn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.14999999999999997 | will-zuranolone-get-fda-approval-fo | 10 | {"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5} | Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for major depression until 2027-03-08? | 1646777738798 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646776650828 | Milli | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone?s=r
Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-ma | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.220466411738617, "YES": 3.8733706445420375} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1646777738798 | 100 | Milli | 1646776650828 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 1715656873363 | 0 | 0.14999999999999997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44999999999999996 | VkqT8auXbRClU1z9xq3x | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44999999999999996 | will-zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-f | 10 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 4.5} | Will Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression until 2027-03-08? | 1646777677629 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 4.5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646776826290 | Milli | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-po | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.416940106944373, "YES": 6.708874752892618} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646777677629 | 100 | Milli | 1646776826290 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 1715658252037 | 0 | 0.44999999999999996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33 | 9ZgBfRFqeHGyGIS0F2Vh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.33 | will-zuranolone-get-fda-approval-fo-21bf5ba12896 | 10 | {"NO": 6.699999999999999, "YES": 3.3000000000000003} | Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for some condition other than major or postpartum depression until 2027-03-08? | 1646777695403 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6.699999999999999, "YES": 3.3000000000000003} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646776937299 | Milli | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/zuranolone-gets-fda-approval-for-so | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.186171307149637, "YES": 5.7451371028026825} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646777695403 | 100 | Milli | 1646776937299 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 1715657675147 | 0 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9380079300441178 | oV0QFDZL1kiVkcoNdOXZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9380079300441178 | will-there-be-a-new-hogwarts-legacy | 568 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 468} | Will there be a new Hogwarts Legacy trailer before April of 2022? | 1648796460000 | KUMHL0Je03VcyUxY0eMTzJWyw7q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 468} | 0 | 4.699416253283374 | True | play | YES | public | 1646777015115 | tricyclerean | This market resolves to "YES" if there is a new official Hogwarts Legacy trailer by April 1st 2022.
Mar 16, 12:54pm: Too bad no one voted on this :) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.42206334409067, "YES": 550.113566457418} | {"creatorFee": 3.9999999999999982, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648833397325 | 100 | epicandSTEVIE | 1646777015115 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg1uASCtVRtb-ZdriXlOmgQ2J0s3L25wQr75Vmg=s96-c | 3 | 1715658683560 | 0 | 1 | 1648161767943 | 0.9380079300441178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35 | Q7E6JlZFzHGXvbhanH08 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.35 | will-a-neurosteroid-except-zuranolo | 10 | {"NO": 6.5, "YES": 3.5} | Will a neurosteroid except Zuranolone get FDA approval for a psychiatric indication until until 2027-03-08? | 1646777631990 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6.5, "YES": 3.5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646777038791 | Milli | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone
Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/another-neurosteroid-gets-fda-appro | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8.06306397407338, "YES": 5.916671391077926} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1646777631990 | 100 | Milli | 1646777038791 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 1715658133756 | 0 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.023949138814550918 | OBMLqUBNd6dLelsOH282 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.023949138814550918 | will-ukraine-receive-additional-mig | 1788.5071694594533 | {"NO": 1552.4570777559952, "YES": 161.03575278455145} | Will Ukraine receive additional MiGs in the next week? | 1647413940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1555, "YES": 160} | 0 | 4.6438747562758955 | True | play | NO | public | 1646777152411 | Mike Blume | Poland has announced its intent to fly all their MiG-29 jets to a US air base in Germany. If these MiGs make their way to Ukraine, so that Ukrainian pilots can fly them, or if other MiGs not currently being used by Ukraine do the same, before March 15th, this market will resolve YES.
https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-of-the-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-the-republic-of-poland-in-connection-with-the-statement-by-the-us-secretary-of-state-on-providing-airplanes-to-ukraine | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1692.851137068399, "YES": 265.1718971285308} | {"creatorFee": 6.3397132216218655, "platformFee": 1.5849283054054664, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1647550353855 | 100 | MichaelBlume | 1646777152411 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 14 | 1715658075889 | 0 | 1 | 1646860741332 | 0.023949138814550918 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2788074503671521 | CuOHSizDYjg3B8dO7Q7t | {"NO": 75.9212556303282, "YES": 254.00847164186254} | 1 | will-mm-make-it-better-for-market-c | 908.650544522803 | {"NO": 215.37989722254457, "YES": 126.96955825465244} | Will MM make it better for market creators, by May 1st 2022. | 1650808740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 216, "YES": 128} | 0 | 3.4743344677676307 | True | play | YES | public | 1646779613292 | Undox | The problem is one of endorphins. Trading, pushing and pulling money into markets for a fast buck (or lost buck) is fun, immediate and let's say zero-sum ish.
OTOH creating a market is long term, boring in the sense it locks up your ANTE for ages, and extra boring if the market is meaningful and not some short term whalebait crap.
In addition when you create a market, it is your opinion vs. every shark out their who can see a flaw in your logic. On average creating a market means you will get eating by sharks.
It would be good in my opinion to make it better for market makers, so we get more markets created. And by extension, more interesting markets in the mix.
Some ideas:
1. Run the pool as a classic pool as a fundraiser. So as a creator I put in $10, and say it starts once the pot reaches a threshold say $200. During phase 1, people bet blind YES/NO. Once $200 is reached, the probability is calculated based on the $190 of additional bets, and then it is a $200 pool with that prob from the start. If it never reaches $200, run it as a classic PM pool.
The reason this is good because it allow someone with say $500 and a lot of good ideas to create 50 markets, and then if one catches on, the startup phase avoids the problem with $10 pools at the moment that you can only bet $1 at a time without skewing. The blind portion takes away the unfair advantage sharks have at the beginning. It will put off the "professionals" and attract people who are interested in the outcome. IMO.
2. Better rewards for market makers - I think 1% of every transaction (buys, selling shares and then the payout) would be good - and then, like a tip jar, pool this money across the platform and share it across all markets that are 'interesting' as defined by having 5 unique bettors. This rewards small niche market makers, and avoids people feeling like they want to create the "Will this reach $10000 this week" kind of crap.
3. Some kind of loan system for creating markets so capital is not tied up. E.g. $500 loans per player total for market creation.
Resolves YES if anything is done specifically to address the problem of incentives to create markets
Mar 9, 9:51am: Just a thought, something that proves this is a problem is how https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot works. It seems to be an admin account that prints money to create new markets. You wouldn't need to print (or print as much), if it was better for market makers :-)
Close date updated to 2022-04-24 11:59 pm
May 4, 7:34am: Yes because https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/107 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 290.66715522488437, "YES": 180.87686208832014} | {"creatorFee": 3.2103745339831447, "platformFee": 0.5398369966328369, "liquidityFee": 3.1530796423553906} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1651613654291 | 103.15307964235537 | Undox | 1646779613292 | 0 | 18 | 1650313849914 | 0 | 1 | 1650670083370 | 0.10358084555629361 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6503865972928743 | UsWa71D7dNABOjS1QCnf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6503865972928743 | will-i-do-24-pushups-per-day-for-th | 385.3523615972222 | {"NO": 117.14763840277777, "YES": 263.5} | Will I do ≥24 pushups per day for the next week? | 1647316740000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 118.5, "YES": 263.5} | 0 | 4.7383839900870655 | True | play | YES | public | 1646782671291 | Blazer | This market resolves YES if I do at least 24 pushups each day until next Monday, inclusive. Doing more than 24 pushups on a given day does not count towards any other day's total. Pushups done after midnight but before I go to bed count towards the "previous" day.
24 is my usual set size and I don't expect to have trouble physically, but I do expect remembering to do them at all to be quite an obstacle. Also the piece of floor I expect to do them on is messy and needs cleaning before I can use it, which I haven't managed in probably several weeks. This weekend I have several things going on which are likely to throw off my schedule and cause me to forget about this.
Mar 9, 9:44am: Also, I won't close the market early even if I miss a day. (I have not yet missed the one day it was possible to so far, just establishing my intention here.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 225.07036606472602, "YES": 306.979993220045} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1647316852858 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1646782671291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 14 | 1715658233210 | 0 | 1647289915274 | 0.6503865972928743 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | IzgonQtqNvcta62ea0e0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49999999999999994 | is-eurpln-exchange-rate-going-to-re | 30 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 15} | Is EUR/PLN exchange rate going to reach 5.00 in March 2022? | 1647156950976 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 15} | 0 | 5.5856306535877325 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646782714499 | Account deletion requested | https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-PLN?window=MAX will be used
right now it is 4.87
Market will be resolved once I spot that it reached 5.00 or more within March 2022, or after March will end. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.213910542377615, "YES": 21.21391054237761} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647156950976 | 100 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1646782714499 | 0 | 1 | 1715657924679 | 0 | 0.49999999999999994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5043136124749737 | S3WcDOesEpJ6tQ6m554h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5043136124749737 | will-this-questions-probability-be | 218 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 110} | Will this question's probability be between 4.5% and 50% on March 10th 6 PM Eastern Time? | 1646953200000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 110} | 0 | 4.821184563993818 | True | play | NO | public | 1646783368331 | Matthew Barnett | This question resolves to YES if the probability for this question on March 10th 2022, 6:00 PM Eastern Time is between 4.5% and 50% inclusive, according to the Manifold Markets API. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Idea by @NataliaMendonca | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 153.48360173158565, "YES": 154.81350070488043} | {"creatorFee": 4.3999999999999995, "platformFee": 1.0999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650050121834 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646783368331 | 0 | 9 | 1715658181714 | 0 | 1 | 0.5043136124749737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xc9t348cUfYdL0KZ3tuB | what-will-the-number-of-active-volc-8b587dd8b542 | 155 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.893920819158259 | True | play | 21869b938b08 | public | 1646789279485 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7910/active-volcanos-in-2022/
Acceptable answers: integers rounded to nearest 5, i.e. "65", "70", "75", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672697729756 | 300 | MetaculusBot | 1672544625595 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "51a8ec67aba0", "prob": 0.4162330905306972, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.2054495974234, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.01064306038633, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xc9t348cUfYdL0KZ3tuB", "createdTime": 1646789279678, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.846", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672697729000, "totalLiquidity": 58.272632674297604, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9eb87ea5d08", "prob": 0.13839750260145678, "text": "70", "index": 1, "poolNo": 7.765455602830454, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.344340143936975, "textFts": "'70':1", "contractId": "xc9t348cUfYdL0KZ3tuB", "createdTime": 1646868219753, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.842", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672697729000, "totalLiquidity": 19.37565036420395, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "21869b938b08", "prob": 0.3204994797086368, "text": "75", "index": 2, "poolNo": 39.62037680667893, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.00034433364074, "textFts": "'75':1", "contractId": "xc9t348cUfYdL0KZ3tuB", "createdTime": 1646868528759, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.846", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672697729000, "totalLiquidity": 57.689906347554626, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e48252f9de05", "prob": 0.12486992715920918, "text": "80", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6.6035659450190485, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.27999133134182, "textFts": "'80':1", "contractId": "xc9t348cUfYdL0KZ3tuB", "createdTime": 1672544625398, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672697729000, "totalLiquidity": 17.481789802289285, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | 1672544625398 | {"21869b938b08": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va | by-2023-how-many-words-of-content-w | 1969.3118340597541 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.649938413461764 | True | play | e9ccc4bc5350 | public | 1646789946872 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/
Acceptable answers: integers in increments of 25k, i.e. "200k", "225k", "250k", etc
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673916410598 | 540 | MetaculusBot | 1672548449189 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "968324ad0ac2", "prob": 0.12562554602945888, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.625717285163414, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.195752800854706, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1646789947059, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.601", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 12.203624471433148, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f193158616ee", "prob": 0.37921555707368104, "text": "200k", "index": 1, "poolNo": 88.06921008512155, "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.17128860309504, "textFts": "'200k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1671036522312, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.601", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 112.68119410189381, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a9f7519dcea6", "prob": 0.026983686385717444, "text": "225k", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.7960044677341191, "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.703466299738444, "textFts": "'225k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1671036539558, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.597", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 4.779967302612804, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e12668cec1d", "prob": 0.0005050146950384246, "text": "250k", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0011027487805616123, "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.182494662137765, "textFts": "'250k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1671036548073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.598", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 0.049058570375161245, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e9ccc4bc5350", "prob": 0.4670631711123294, "text": "175k", "index": 4, "poolNo": 94.96511331794655, "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.35880342715534, "textFts": "'175k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1671036554691, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.601", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 101.44114572724867, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "91451ecd378e", "prob": 0.0005070247037748959, "text": "150k", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0011093400173080728, "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.186831423122681, "textFts": "'150k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1671036563433, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.601", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04925382836670417, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c01eec91011", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "204k", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'204k':1", "contractId": "pfYXegCHZrduhfL6A6va", "createdTime": 1672535520484, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.602", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916410000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 4 | 7 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979197093}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 1672548449052 | 1672535677674 | {"e9ccc4bc5350": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09356610504704006 | 5BHCDX9h9I4jzRJH0SqG | {"NO": 140.50708030419636, "YES": 131.65708979126242} | 0.04 | by-2023-what-fraction-of-total-traf | 656.1129927300709 | {"NO": 450, "YES": 50} | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 450, "YES": 50} | 0 | 6.367897575411833 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646790149907 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/
Resolves PROB to rounded result. i.e. if the Metaculus question resolves to 0.105, this market would resolve to 11%.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 474.34259770855493, "YES": 158.114199236185} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1675610405569 | 140 | MetaculusBot | 1671290018043 | 0 | 4 | 1650313799011 | 0 | 8 | 5 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979202538}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 1671290017860 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18 | 5gzKDkj5B6NJJ9kltgu0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17 | by-2023-what-fraction-of-total-cont | 500.00000000000006 | {"NO": 410.00000000000006, "YES": 90} | By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 410.00000000000006, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.6961191094847266 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646790351246 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/
Resolves PROB, rounded. i.e. if the Metaculus question resolves to 0.175, this market resolves to 18%.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 452.77016244538464, "YES": 212.13245862003296} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009055385138137418, "YES": 0.0004242640687119285} | 0 | 1673916388888 | 100 | MetaculusBot | 1646790351246 | 0 | 1 | 1650313802275 | 0 | 4 | 2 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670979214115}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui | by-2023-how-fast-will-the-effective | 1092.5342655672744 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.662614368368802 | True | play | f78395235e87 | public | 1646790517504 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/
Resolves rounded to nearest 0.25. Acceptable answers: decimals in 0.25 increments, i.e. "1.0", "1.25", "1.50", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.731513646262697, "platformFee": 0.18287841156567425, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673916366261 | 620 | MetaculusBot | 1671290165106 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0aaa7581285c", "prob": 0.2368128770974463, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.794298351585331, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.341766457789713, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1646790517696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.358", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 15.787525139829755, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "405ed6cd989a", "prob": 0.03701953619938119, "text": "1.5", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0645575479473781, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.692084410337692, "textFts": "'1.5':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1647790667726, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.358", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 5.429531975909241, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "54c3363c6f60", "prob": 0.0034257135156928087, "text": "1.25", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.021423994423124728, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.2324540152189005, "textFts": "'1.25':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1648876129426, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3654094416738996, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ff931bd61de2", "prob": 0.004154860349948109, "text": "1.75", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.02862644817754211, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.8612436717410805, "textFts": "'1.75':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1648876137279, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.363", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 0.44318510399446504, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2ef9850b53fa", "prob": 0.0013848586784287185, "text": "2", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.005500951749721267, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.9667106792325315, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1648876150177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.361", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 0.14771825903239663, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c418522ae548", "prob": 0.0011111736023003299, "text": "1.0", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.003953147502015833, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5536795156859005, "textFts": "'1.0':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1648876234746, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.361", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 0.11852518424536852, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6b862902cf16", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "2.25", "index": 6, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "'2.25':1", "contractId": "vwutvvtkm0WAjMAz16Ui", "createdTime": 1648876421973, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.361", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673916366000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 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QXUT1gF1x30azjayVKcL | by-2023-what-will-be-the-quality-of | 681 | By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.685921486164851 | True | play | 2e33f1054dfe | public | 1646790752225 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/
Resolves rounded to nearest 0.25. Acceptable answers: decimals from 1.0-5.0 in 0.25 increments, i.e. "4.0", "4.25", "4.5", etc.
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0.25985485999486335 | W5tk8a8QbJvEAqlXuyiX | {"NO": 90.17013774390557, "YES": 1223.3966940468513} | 0 | will-cumulative-reported-deaths-fro | 7485.46315633817 | {"NO": 970.1748055899632, "YES": 1529.8767726562596} | Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 960, "YES": 1608} | 0 | 2.977838726450521 | True | play | NO | public | 1646791002606 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1366.5201194293213, "YES": 2093.534250302693} | {"creatorFee": 13.433522209038001, "platformFee": 1.6825596772470808, "liquidityFee": 5.750986892303016} | {"NO": 0.000916515138991168, "YES": 0.0004} | 0 | 1673055428085 | 225.75098689230305 | MetaculusBot | 1673036898762 | 0 | 48 | 1650314621329 | 0 | 2 | 47 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418149}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560872}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372028}] | ["china", "world-default", "medicine", "metaculus"] | 1672088431960 | 1673036892720 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9978402674398203 | i79yuYsyLuzx5dF6Uq8a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9978402674398203 | will-john-beshir-still-be-on-the-le | 4087.405013630847 | {"NO": 52.71642726699724, "YES": 1935.8785591021556} | Will John Beshir still be on the leaderboard on March 20th 2022, 6 PM Eastern Time? | 1647813600000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 1941} | 0 | 4.639946825229062 | True | play | YES | public | 1646791030151 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if John Beshir is still in the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets leaderboard, sorted by total profits. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Mar 8, 8:57pm: I will check the leaderboard at the time indicated in the title of this question. If he drops from the leaderboard and gets back on it, it will still resolve to YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.41586789623652, "YES": 1986.4474079029853} | {"creatorFee": 2.3439550663242184, "platformFee": 0.5859887665810546, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648090113906 | 100 | MatthewBarnett | 1646791030151 | 0 | 12 | 1715658554996 | 0 | 1 | 1647743910882 | 0.9978402674398203 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7920289216254698 | gmhvBSrCAgOjs5ROHPcs | {"NO": 288.9390166381122, "YES": 76.27675341728451} | 1 | does-omicron-have-a-shorter-generat | 771.9999999999999 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 440} | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 440} | 0 | 4.403148979196583 | True | play | YES | public | 1646791079218 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 264.5756602567212, "YES": 516.1403685052353} | {"creatorFee": 1.3193980060514356, "platformFee": 0.05168292883270803, "liquidityFee": 0.3100975729962481} | {"NO": 0.0005291502622129182, "YES": 0.000848528137423857} | 0 | 1686738032874 | 100.31009757299624 | MetaculusBot | 1667245336440 | 0 | 10 | 1650314710239 | 0 | 33 | 10 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371097}] | ["medicine", "metaculus"] | 1667245336248 | 0.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11481365346630919 | kDue6U4Q0izfL4jBHzZe | {"NO": 111.83329620471866, "YES": 709.7776097363808} | 0 | will-the-us-cdc-classify-omicron-as | 1251.9999999999995 | {"NO": 545, "YES": 95} | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 545, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.712617842834133 | True | play | NO | public | 1646791136231 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 592.369048820792, "YES": 242.28122089866972} | {"creatorFee": 0.38686615642695266, "platformFee": 0.032895178561475856, "liquidityFee": 0.19737107136885512} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1672610440906 | 140.19737107136885 | MetaculusBot | 1672546438499 | 0 | 9 | 1650314731705 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371399}] | ["medicine", "metaculus"] | 1672546438388 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8107801429780628 | H6Z6SYzbpes0eIJjO3rt | {"NO": 173.5287500315584, "YES": 89.31133535186073} | 1 | will-the-us-uk-or-eu-authorize-an-o | 661.1311816183614 | {"NO": 109.99999999999999, "YES": 430} | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | 1660612495672 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 109.99999999999999, "YES": 430} | 0 | 4.531592159949245 | True | play | YES | public | 1646791187348 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8754/date-usukeu-ok-omicron-specific-booster/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 234.52125703274746, "YES": 486.4163442985649} | {"creatorFee": 1.7024385173820615, "platformFee": 0.10621570343487659, "liquidityFee": 0.6372942206092596} | {"NO": 0.00046904157598234294, "YES": 0.0008831760866327847} | 0 | 1660612495672 | 100.63729422060926 | MetaculusBot | 1657886458106 | 0 | 6 | 1650313878622 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372269}] | ["metaculus"] | 1657886456795 | 0.892765143214588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4510568440064595 | czPqp6cgHjem8iVzJh1M | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4510568440064595 | will-all-the-no-traders-in-the-mark | 786.8937442739528 | {"NO": 638.1062557260472, "YES": 47} | Will all the NO traders in the market about whether "range" markets work agree that it was resolved fairly? | 1647276426471 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 659, "YES": 47} | 0 | 4.68551192294835 | True | play | NO | public | 1646794948412 | Daniel Reeves | I realized that in https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-there-or-will-there-be-a-success I should've first bought 1 mana of YES and commented with my reasoning for resolving to YES before doing so.
To make up for that, I'm resolving this market to YES only if all the NO traders there agree that YES was the correct resolution. Discuss!
Mar 14, 9:33am: Gurkenglas (who may have been the only NO trader in the other market) has spoken! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 682.6681901538809, "YES": 57.75893004982} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647276426471 | 100 | dreev | 1646794948412 | 0 | 5 | 1715658455964 | 0 | 1647275958258 | 0.4510568440064595 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.911540123094728 | ueFsCdbrRbUCfyLZsgn5 | {"NO": 597.8317612359133, "YES": 85.94819482346442} | 1 | will-i-marry-natalia-mendonca-befor | 1883.7713984226284 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 423.2286015773716} | Will I marry Natália Mendonça before July 1st 2022? | 1653426657544 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 420} | 0 | 8.893671808902514 | True | play | YES | public | 1646803274999 | Matthew Barnett | I'm currently engaged to Natália Mendonça. This market resolves to YES if I marry her before July 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.3199332739955, "YES": 467.8841089301944} | {"creatorFee": 1.0094325845204133, "platformFee": 0.16823876408673552, "liquidityFee": 1.0094325845204133} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1653426657544 | 101.00943258452043 | MatthewBarnett | 1653351784444 | 0 | 10 | 1650314796095 | 0 | [{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666822033229}] | ["sex-and-love"] | 1653351783074 | 1646813292752 | 0.986240234505567 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | Yrkhhkx8CSKxmrMiIlCA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-tupac-still-be-alive-in-serbia | 110 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | Will Tupac still be alive in Serbia on January 1, 2023? | 1647648222832 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646804565532 | Adam | Mar 8, 9:46pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntft_zd-_NM | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1647648222832 | 100 | Adam | 1646804565532 | 0 | 2 | 1715658332316 | 0 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500096114993507 | G32rwdsOoTneCuIR82fN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.500096114993507 | will-i-steal-your-money | 1304 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 50.999999999999886} | Will I steal your money? | 1647648241708 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 51} | 0 | 5.012419115615842 | True | play | NO | public | 1646805150551 | Adam | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 72.11866610316638, "YES": 72.13253080614878} | {"creatorFee": 2.040000000000001, "platformFee": 0.5100000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647648241708 | 100 | Adam | 1646805150551 | 0 | 4 | 1715657858343 | 0 | 1647506363707 | 0.500096114993507 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.964786498631866 | Als2rgJkhUibZN0t88gt | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.964786498631866 | will-this-market-have-m10000-invest-c5cfee65e218 | 14301.649405156353 | {"NO": 666.6860414157136, "YES": 11824.82755705043} | Will this market have M$10,000 invested in it before March 31st? | 1648337836409 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 663, "YES": 11839} | 0 | 4.619115084882415 | True | play | NO | public | 1646805733744 | Adam | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2344.065294899395, "YES": 12269.60858613432} | {"creatorFee": 474.5808364218887, "platformFee": 118.64520910547218, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1648337836409 | 100 | Adam | 1646805733744 | 0 | 15 | 1715657715883 | 0 | [{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661914994558}] | ["improperly-resolved"] | 1648337219100 | 0.964786498631866 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5014103387916288 | VpXEfUCfMTWFrLMFeGgk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5014103387916288 | this-market-will-resolve-as-prob-50 | 384 | {"NO": 210, "YES": 174} | This market will resolve as PROB 50:50 | 1647413940000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 210, "YES": 174} | 0 | 4.73737237331748 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646805781915 | Adam | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 271.14649177243655, "YES": 271.9123903033843} | {"creatorFee": 0.7524941262444965, "platformFee": 0.18812353156112413, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647441609867 | 100 | Adam | 1646805781915 | 0 | 8 | 1715658255032 | 0 | 1 | 0.5014103387916288 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 24qZbFETbtZ1KdSDXYnU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | “According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyways. Because bees don't care what humans think is impossible.” | 1646953587383 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646805869939 | Adam | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646953587383 | 100 | Adam | 1646805869939 | 0 | 1 | 1715656912382 | 0 | 0.5000000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02594710241476793 | TaeR68G40T7mx0GKjnuL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02594710241476793 | will-there-be-3-consecutive-days-in | 796.782480709546 | {"NO": 563.8310485152964, "YES": 55.38647077515759} | Will there be 3 consecutive days in March 2022 where the NYT does NOT mention COVID on the front-page? | 1648796340000 | RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 565, "YES": 55} | 0 | 4.692712646683949 | True | play | NO | public | 1646805933212 | lippy | This market resolves to YES if there are 3 consecutive days in March 2022 where the NYT does NOT mention COVID or related keywords on the front-page. The specific keywords are: covid, corona, pandemic, or wuhan.
- Data source: https://eddietejeda.github.io/nytimes-covid-frontpage/
- Source code: https://github.com/eddietejeda/nytimes-covid-frontpage
- Keyword list: https://github.com/eddietejeda/nytimes-covid-frontpage/blob/master/build.rb#L52 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 611.1322576138681, "YES": 99.74436493375975} | {"creatorFee": 2.2154588310063024, "platformFee": 0.5538647077515756, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648830999436 | 100 | lippy | 1646805933212 | 0 | 11 | 1715658210060 | 0 | 1 | 0.02594710241476793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5470733992581504 | qgRXohnFSinNHZa0CkLh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5470733992581504 | according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b | 219.44322136774207 | {"NO": 78, "YES": 94.55677863225793} | According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. [...] | 1646896806391 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 78, "YES": 97} | 0 | 4.868925832475209 | True | play | NO | public | 1646805977395 | Adam | Mar 8, 10:34pm: The market creation service should probably do some data validation. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 116.13107743317599, "YES": 127.63134341026513} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1646896806391 | 100 | Adam | 1646805977395 | 0 | 11 | 1715658746283 | 0 | 1646888307378 | 0.5470733992581504 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9 | WZDOSwGxRaYf2QrtdLz3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9 | will-manifold-markets-implement-eit | 300 | {"NO": 29.999999999999993, "YES": 270} | Will Manifold Markets implement either "report" functionality or "will automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat bad-faith actors holding markets "hostage", by May 15th, 2022? (sparked by Dr P's Trump question) | 1646827515812 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 29.999999999999993, "YES": 270} | 0 | 4.769032994622135 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646827386696 | Matt P | This market resolves to YES if Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions by the closing date. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this (without requiring ad hoc action by Manifold for every bad actor) is just to have markets resolve automatically after a given date everyone can see.
Mar 9, 6:31am: (resolved N/A so I could post it in the actual Manifold Markets community) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.8686460328174, "YES": 284.60593809845216} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1646827515812 | 100 | MattP | 1646827386696 | 0 | 1 | 1715658269432 | 0 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8638050317370944 | VDa5QYzCh3Rx8j29uOtO | {"NO": 2.3287670853732196, "YES": 182.81319798000402} | 0 | will-manifold-implement-either-repo | 891.6116166413094 | {"NO": 64.53289450845, "YES": 527.9046096805557} | Will Manifold implement either "report" functionality or "markets automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat "hostage" markets by bad faith actors, sometime on or before May 15th, 2022? | 1652677140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 528} | 0 | 7.156727565980848 | True | play | NO | public | 1646827770987 | Matt P | This market resolves to YES if, by the closing date, Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this IMO (without requiring ad hoc action by Manifold for every bad actor a la report button) is just to have markets resolve automatically after a given date everyone can see (maybe defaulting to a week after the market close date). If Manifold continues to grow, they will have to do something like this IMO (hence my high probability). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 205.69539221709852, "YES": 555.5832852654594} | {"creatorFee": 1.4907630676143129, "platformFee": 0.24846051126905214, "liquidityFee": 1.4907630676143129} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1652717414954 | 101.49076306761431 | MattP | 1652717502164 | 0 | 20 | 1650314616101 | 0 | 1 | 1652037699493 | 1652717500534 | 0.07475335579750599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X | what-is-the-proper-way-to-make-mark | 70.7773620313956 | What is the proper way to make markets asking for features? | 1648076340000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.377594278135834 | True | play | c41f7971b077 | public | 1646844547685 | Account deletion requested | Mar 9, 5:49pm: I plan to resolve it as probability based on what seems the best idea
Mar 9, 5:53pm: Comments about what seems the best solution and what worked before are welcome | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4577507621458288, "platformFee": 0.3644376905364572, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649368088995 | 520 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1662787424499 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2380c49d7a5a", "prob": 0.05352756178925383, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0183620189498275, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.006640893741654, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844547910, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.137", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 4.282204943140306, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a6f7da93d68", "prob": 0.011240787975743304, "text": "Create market \"Is it a good idea to add feature X\" (problem with how it would be resolved)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0958826105686275, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.43400077265453, "textFts": "'add':9 'creat':1 'featur':10 'good':6 'idea':7 'market':2 'problem':12 'resolv':18 'would':16 'x':11", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844589703, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.132", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8992630380594644, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7f1b944de803", "prob": 0.025693229658841833, "text": "Create market \"Will Manifold implement X\" (and bet YES if someone that it is a good idea and likely to happen)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.33378758169359246, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.657478449306362, "textFts": "'bet':8 'creat':1 'good':16 'happen':21 'idea':17 'implement':5 'like':19 'manifold':4 'market':2 'someon':11 'x':6 'yes':9", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844659334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.132", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0554583727073465, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "25c17c416b2e", "prob": 0.029975434601982147, "text": "Create market \"Will Manifold implement X\" (and bet NO to encourage Manifold people betting YES and implementing and collecting reward)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.4215478254719106, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.641561886506562, "textFts": "'bet':8,14 'collect':19 'creat':1 'encourag':11 'implement':5,17 'manifold':4,12 'market':2 'peopl':13 'reward':20 'x':6 'yes':15", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844696784, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 2.398034768158572, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "70c5e6543e46", "prob": 0.07654441335863298, "text": "Join larger market \"Suggest features.\" and mention feature there ", "index": 4, "poolNo": 3.5259993229086932, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.538751430204464, "textFts": "'featur':5,8 'join':1 'larger':2 'market':3 'mention':7 'suggest':4", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844746432, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.132", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 12.247106137381277, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0c029ab20c54", "prob": 0.03853984448826275, "text": "Do not create markets, email Manifold", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.6172900522957957, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.399641528312696, "textFts": "'creat':3 'email':5 'manifold':6 'market':4", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844762053, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.132", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 3.0831875590610203, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c41f7971b077", "prob": 0.25338849808322533, "text": "Do not create markets, post about it on Discord", "index": 6, "poolNo": 23.618536885175487, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.5922326005728, "textFts": "'creat':3 'discord':9 'market':4 'post':5", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646844780549, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 40.54215969331605, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c93306025d03", "prob": 0.3344664459656168, "text": "Create market \"Will Manifold implement X\", explain in the description why you think they should, bet at your actual estimated chance they'll do it", "index": 7, "poolNo": 37.948417090522696, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.51114678580046, "textFts": "'actual':19 'bet':16 'chanc':21 'creat':1 'descript':10 'estim':20 'explain':7 'implement':5 'll':23 'manifold':4 'market':2 'think':13 'x':6", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646847002603, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.137", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 53.53063135449869, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "71ef96f987de", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Tweet vehement complaints about the lack of the feature", "index": 8, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'complaint':3 'featur':9 'lack':6 'tweet':1 'vehement':2", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1646938342533, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.212", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c35772f7177c", "prob": 0.17652378407844108, "text": "Do not create markets - stuff your suggestion into AMA threads (like for \"abandoned markets\" in https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-will-be-our-favorite-questions-43f9189067ba )", "index": 9, "poolNo": 6.538367089970078, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.50121442650508, "textFts": "'/austin/what-will-be-our-favorite-questions-43f9189067ba':18 'abandon':13 'ama':9 'creat':3 'like':11 'manifold.markets':17 'manifold.markets/austin/what-will-be-our-favorite-questions-43f9189067ba':16 'market':4,14 'stuff':5 'suggest':7 'thread':10", "contractId": "fBKBb0GbPhpOnWfIqd9X", "createdTime": 1647995096627, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649368088000, "totalLiquidity": 14.121902726275286, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1662787236762}] | ["improperly-resolved"] | 1662787421049 | {"c41f7971b077": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | z9IVtdmNYoam1hYlY9Dk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-the-administrators-of-manifold | 100 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | Will the administrators of Manifold Markets delete my market with an exceptionally long question before March 13th? | 1646845398259 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.000000000000004, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | NO | public | 1646845116925 | Adam | see https://manifold.markets/Adam/according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b
People are rightfully complaining that the market ruins a bunch of UX stuff, and obviously this is unintended behavior. Resolving based on Pacific timezone.
Mar 9, 8:58am: This will resolve "No" if they implement some kind of "show more" feature, and will resolve "No" if they just redact the question. This question is specifically about deletion.
Mar 9, 9:02am: Well, this is awkward! They redacted the question immediately after I posted! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.36090338179566, "YES": 97.46891812752412} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964} | 0 | 1646845398259 | 100 | Adam | 1646845116925 | 0 | 1 | 1715658967645 | 0 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06628314203913957 | DBn85QJK1NadYHuOE1QW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06628314203913957 | will-i-find-a-good-procrypto-respon | 488.1277635815648 | {"NO": 102, "YES": 11.872236418435193} | Will I find a good pro-crypto response to the "Line Goes Up" video? | 1648796400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 102, "YES": 13} | 0 | 4.977793086517973 | True | play | NO | public | 1646849938409 | Isaac King | This video is making the rounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g
This market resolves to yes if someone points me to, or I find on my own, an in-depth, well thought-out response to the video that is itself largely in favor of crypto, or at least not against it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 110.03459871848467, "YES": 29.317248460094035} | {"creatorFee": 0.4748894567374082, "platformFee": 0.11872236418435204, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1648830454304 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646849938409 | 0 | 9 | 1715657778075 | 0 | 1 | 1648638163715 | 0.06628314203913957 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv | who-will-win-the-mens-race-at-utmb | 115.74059330077398 | Who will win the men's race at UTMB 2022? | 1661464740000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.976768964229349 | True | play | bd525b5f75c9 | public | 1646851270695 | howtodowtle | Elite runner entry list: https://utmbmontblanc.com/en/page/233/2019-elite-runners.html
Apr 23, 10:54am: If the winner's name is explicitly named among the choices, I will resolve to N/A. (I.e., an answer like "a runner not listed here" will not win.)
Jun 3, 9:12pm: Typo in the addendum from April 23: If the winner's name is NOT explicitly named among the choices, I will resolve to N/A. (I.e., an answer like "a runner not listed here" will not win.) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662055174021 | 560.0000000000001 | howtodowtle | 1661455071932 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8dc2101103c6", "prob": 0.007659776022976826, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.049350917867214426, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.393516043148067, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851270933, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.815", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.561716908351634, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9f2aa6d4076d", "prob": 0.2588215595408655, "text": "Jim Walmsley", "index": 1, "poolNo": 23.451782761479997, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.15806752719807, "textFts": "'jim':1 'walmsley':2", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851297501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.811", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 39.68597246293271, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bd525b5f75c9", "prob": 0.1951319629739969, "text": "Kilian Jornet Burgada", "index": 2, "poolNo": 14.73217457765711, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.76634628547952, "textFts": "'burgada':3 'jornet':2 'kilian':1", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851316263, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.811", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 29.920234322679526, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cd80d3dff07e", "prob": 0.32344666693501944, "text": "Hannes Namberger", "index": 3, "poolNo": 34.30234639884673, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.7502115820277, "textFts": "'hann':1 'namberg':2", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851331897, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.816", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 49.61048893003635, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b0ec87807c6e", "prob": 0.009078275651411276, "text": "Pablo Villa González", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.06372161868837989, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.95541077331758, "textFts": "'gonzález':3 'pablo':1 'villa':2", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851347720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.816", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.665740214436827, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d950034878d3", "prob": 0.009078275651411276, "text": "Tom Evans", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.06372161868837989, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.95541077331758, "textFts": "'evan':2 'tom':1", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851362002, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.66", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.665740214436827, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "27b7669c17ad", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Xavier Thevenard", "index": 6, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'thevenard':2 'xavier':1", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1646851378200, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.66", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "992d62cf94f0", "prob": 0.002987312648960962, "text": "Pau Capell", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.011991461027465067, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.0021384398504685, "textFts": "'capel':2 'pau':1", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1660165241926, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.661", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.21906959425713723, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7c60d785f519", "prob": 0.0031405081694204987, "text": "Aurélien Dunand-Pallaz", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.012926600977849064, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.103159166197321, "textFts": "'aurélien':1 'dunand':3 'dunand-pallaz':2 'pallaz':4", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1660165261507, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.656", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.23030393242416994, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "79ded5392625", "prob": 0.009691057733249422, "text": "Sebastian Krogvik", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.07030283637479798, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.184099965663342, "textFts": "'krogvik':2 'sebastian':1", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1660165290727, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.66", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7106775671049578, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e7be9bc40137", "prob": 0.013484087928806687, "text": "Germain Grangier", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.11560636411168054, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.45793340528609, "textFts": "'germain':1 'grangier':2", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1660165387873, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.662", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 0.9888331147791571, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f8c126cd424e", "prob": 0.167380516743881, "text": "Gediminas Grinius", "index": 11, "poolNo": 5.5034559914497585, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.37645200806328, "textFts": "'gedimina':1 'grinius':2", "contractId": "qgSKwEVcucg5n0IEMJbv", "createdTime": 1661455071707, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.656", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1662055174000, "totalLiquidity": 12.274571227884607, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408326}] | ["sports-default"] | 1661455071707 | {"bd525b5f75c9": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.86 | uhL2YChapUHbBXusLACH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.86 | how-quickly-and-consistently-do-mar | 42.22316661865607 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 24.776833381343927} | How quickly and consistently do markets update? This market resolves to the current time in 15-minute intervals, some time in the next few days. | 1647063586249 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 25} | 0 | 5.422211192165278 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646852170041 | Isaac King | This market will resolve some time in the next few days, at an exact day and time of my choosing. I will choose pseudorandomly based on factors like "I just remembered this market needs to resolve and I'm not currently busy"; I'm not going to decide based on the current probability or any sort of collusion.
It will resolve to PROB floor(N/15), where N is the number of minutes it's been since midnight Pacific Time. (That's 3:00 Eastern Time.) In other words, each 15 minutes that elapses adds 1% to the resolution probability, resetting each midnight.
For example, if I resolve it at 0:45, it resolves to PROB 3%. If I resolve it at 7:50, it resolves to 31%. At 23:08, it resolves to 92%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 22.864783714556307, "YES": 32.54961895630301} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647063586249 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646852170041 | 0 | 4 | 1715658834371 | 0 | 1646874908907 | 0.86 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9173538694009861 | fV5sqproAYaAqEIur1Wh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9173538694009861 | edirrevo-ltr-a-htiw-noitseuq-a-ksa | 11 | {"NO": 0.9999999999999998, "YES": 10} | ?edirrevo LTR a htiw noitseuq a ksa I fi sneppah tahw | 1646896909360 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0.9999999999999998, "YES": 10} | 0 | 6.291739963573701 | True | play | YES | public | 1646853182933 | Adam | Sorry, more Fuzzing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3.1625938879343947, "YES": 10.53660291080574} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1646896909360 | 100 | Adam | 1691486432047 | 0 | 2 | 1715658506590 | 0 | 1691486428806 | 0.9173538694009861 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05970820901000404 | RWkGpp89ic4v2ER5NiJp | {"NO": 331.0118224740516, "YES": 2171.3091013156773} | 0 | will-chile-nationalize-any-company | 9300.193575483256 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 13} | Will Chile nationalize any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry? | 1678431540000 | Vl6yDq4FsoOaCkzFrvkWei18UR72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 13} | 0 | 4.46907677486498 | True | play | NO | public | 1646854904161 | Conner Gagliano | This market resolves to "YES" if Chile nationalizes any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry within 1 year. The market will resolves to "NO" if Chile does not. For reference, currently, Chile is writing a new Constitution and the constituent assembly is debating a provision that could lead to privatization.
Mar 9, 2:42pm: Update: That would involve compensation at market price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.34957795751619, "YES": 16.553730712440625} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1680929384990 | 380 | ConnerGagliano | 1682150152164 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi41zqskI0Ixvy-lTJsqyNyuWyrLALLdVhByZ0=s96-c | 22 | 1650314590674 | 0 | 6 | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486597}] | ["politics-default"] | 1678428982706 | 1682150148834 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1342950811381237 | n57WzNjrNTFdGs4ciWAn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1342950811381237 | will-i-be-able-to-make-a-post-on-tr | 97.58746080035846 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 8.912539199641543} | Will I be able to make a post on Truth Social before the end of March 2022 | 1648796340000 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 8.5} | 0 | 5.245607719698832 | True | play | NO | public | 1646870799101 | April | Resolves positive if I am able to send a message on Truth Social any time in March. I am currently #224,414 in the waitlist | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 52.488998854521896, "YES": 20.673471026402233} | {"creatorFee": 0.3565015679856617, "platformFee": 0.08912539199641542, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1648880747770 | 100 | April | 1646870799101 | 0 | 6 | 1715658653896 | 0 | 1 | 0.1342950811381237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2030844797321335 | ZJLhnqaFTTi6Nvi69PJG | {"NO": 113.72877190362067, "YES": 853.1322117703073} | 0 | will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-6fac2d0f67bc | 1856.275927400878 | {"NO": 134.0694786943348, "YES": 80.77349351466819} | Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022? | 1672549140000 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 137, "YES": 81} | 0 | 3.245631578667796 | True | play | NO | public | 1646879014677 | Oliver S | Inspired by the SK election results, but can be an increase in tensions with anyone.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-conservative-opposition-candidate-yoon-elected-president-2022-03-09/
YES: An incident involving multiple deaths and escalation from the other country. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 177.33699481925285, "YES": 121.28282097238309} | {"creatorFee": 1.4313105085759907, "platformFee": 0.1284072371488853, "liquidityFee": 0.5810217554334913} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1672590764365 | 180.58102175543348 | OliverS | 1672564342745 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 23 | 1650314647881 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664995434906}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664995425359}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661103}] | ["politics-default", "wars", "north-korea"] | 1672512227722 | 1672564338636 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12921912483075704 | b3boblJvY1MLosGtt3Sm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.12921912483075704 | will-manifold-have-3000-bets-placed | 613 | {"NO": 392, "YES": 180.30309973029557} | Will Manifold have >=3000 bets placed on any day in March? | 1648796400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 392, "YES": 181} | 0 | 4.6988087665479545 | True | play | NO | public | 1646883623438 | Isaac King | Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/analytics. Resolves to N/A if the data becomes inaccessible for any reason. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 534.0492359572954, "YES": 205.72650811583128} | {"creatorFee": 7.240000000000002, "platformFee": 1.8100000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1648830559502 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646883623438 | 0 | 15 | 1715658384670 | 0 | 1 | 1646951814298 | 0.12921912483075704 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7453737566763707 | 2f4e46EwYa9auExJ97Rj | {"NO": 238.61754415215208, "YES": 174.62777301741156} | 0.8 | in-what-month-this-year-will-manifo | 2088.7095497994014 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10.000000000000004} | In what month this year will Manifold cross 1000 daily active users? | 1673856000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0 | 2.2477108638179626 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646883888269 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 25, 8:24pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "In what month this year will Manifold cross 1000 active users?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → In what month this year will Manifold cross 1000 daily active users?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it happens this March, resolves to 0%. If it happens in April, resolves to 10%. May is 20%. Etc. If it hasn't happened by the end of December, resolves to 100%. Data source is https://manifold.markets/analytics. Resolves to N/A if that data becomes (and remains) unavailable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 12.490796635923587, "YES": 15.62113953589814} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1674020389665 | 200 | IsaacKing | 1673930105758 | 0 | 18 | 1650313781935 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Pseudopseudonumeric", "slug": "pseudopseudonumeric", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "jlLRcBK59mhhZPhiysUE", "createdTime": 1673891382021}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1673891387360}] | ["pseudopseudonumeric", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1673820327869 | 1673930103330 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9843724852996474 | cqRg4xciYdeEPBZvnhjv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9843724852996474 | will-any-of-my-markets-have-a-pool | 71.40356922530552 | {"NO": 4.596430774694483, "YES": 46} | Will any of my markets have a pool of at least M$ 1000 by the end of March? | 1648796400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4, "YES": 46} | 0 | 5.297471012267621 | True | play | YES | public | 1646886322692 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6.325187775868792, "YES": 50.2005179315911} | {"creatorFee": 0.18385723098777923, "platformFee": 0.04596430774694481, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1648830349573 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646886322692 | 0 | 4 | 1715658451307 | 0 | 1 | 0.9843724852996474 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9639330682623458 | MEk7zAYu0eJA8ykHfE5j | {"NO": 634.1529731678575, "YES": 147.7162202790494} | 1 | will-ron-desantis-be-the-winner-of | 828.9555929556348 | {"NO": 13.58721764998893, "YES": 157} | Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the next Florida gubernatorial election, to be held on November 8, 2022? | 1668013200000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 13, "YES": 157} | 0 | 10.187853456143948 | True | play | YES | public | 1646892665853 | Johnny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 36.05587330976743, "YES": 166.73426162870666} | {"creatorFee": 0.39342510818088716, "platformFee": 0.024967716609352153, "liquidityFee": 0.14980629965611292} | {"NO": 0.000360555127546399, "YES": 0.0009327379053088815} | 0 | 1668021243972 | 160.14980629965612 | TheSkeward | 1668012876603 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 12 | 1650314549091 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1668012876442 | 0.9913597214855827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9958220511341519 | c85l8dVH2sasb7wHnBfn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9958220511341519 | will-viktor-orban-be-the-next-prime | 5813.631767157378 | {"NO": 123.64388585682707, "YES": 5140.724346985795} | Will Viktor Orbán be the next Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 election, held on April 3, 2022? | 1649088000000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 5142} | 0 | 4.624572616705684 | True | play | YES | public | 1646892742354 | Johnny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 340.2733231050046, "YES": 5253.360589687624} | {"creatorFee": 4.894729313704882, "platformFee": 1.2236823284262206, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1649112381133 | 100 | TheSkeward | 1646892742354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 18 | 1715658414314 | 0 | 1 | 1649021844424 | 0.9958220511341519 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8381620389023358 | CTrjLpIvwT20P1ZDjSxa | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8381620389023358 | was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when | 6991.0914540782705 | {"NO": 870.9805027246503, "YES": 2011.9280431970792} | Was it an unpleasant surprise when trades made by market creators became retroactively public? | 1647575940000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1053, "YES": 2401} | 0 | 4.632312466846083 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646921517779 | Blazer | This market is a pure opinion poll and will resolve N/A. Comments encouraged. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1159.768250317223, "YES": 2639.337995695656} | {"creatorFee": 22.720965561703725, "platformFee": 5.680241390425931, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647781414388 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1646921517779 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 19 | 1715657762267 | 0 | 1 | 1647346068270 | 0.8381620389023358 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7893802886932787 | lxlobgGlDk1p9UQikAtr | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7893802886932787 | will-my-weekly-calorie-average-be-a | 207.00429097608938 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 157.49570902391062} | Will my weekly calorie average be at or below my goal for the next four weeks? | 1648638405302 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.5, "YES": 157.5} | 0 | 4.832900026543554 | True | play | NO | public | 1646925732186 | Stephen Malina | I've currently plateaued in weight loss at ~170 lbs. (5'9" height) and been stuck here for about 5-6 months. I currently use MacroFactor (https://www.strongerbyscience.com/macrofactor/) to track calories most days. However, my compliance with my target has been quite bad over the past two months. Inspired by the questions regarding whether paying people to lose weight will work better than prescribing a specific program, I want to see how having people predict on my compliance at a calorie target with me on the "yes" side affects my compliance.
The resolution criteria for "yes" will be twofold:
1. I do my best to track calories every day where this means tracking fairly carefully when I cook and ball-parking with a slight bias towards overestimating when I eat out.
2. I track calories >=25 days in the next four weeks (so can only miss three days).
As proof for this, if I resolve the Q "yes", I'll try to add a comment proving these things.
I've intentionally initialized the market at a high price to incentivize people to bet against me. Go wild!
Mar 10, 10:22am: I realized I didn't record my current calorie target in the original description... It's 1573 calories. I use the "Dynamic" mode on MacroFactor though, so if it updates it upwards or downwards, "yes" resolution will be based on hitting whatever the new goal is for that week not the current one.
Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.07980219328806, "YES": 182.13358155459878} | {"creatorFee": 6.299828360956426, "platformFee": 1.5749570902391066, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1648638405302 | 100 | StephenMalina | 1646925732186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 4 | 1715658633528 | 0 | 1648301855567 | 0.7893802886932787 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | Eu6d8IfLJkKRru0yiSHz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-someone-not-in-the-top-5-of-th | 100 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | Will someone not in the top 5 of the top 5 traders be the top trader when this market closes? | 1646932992290 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646932923182 | Undox | Top 5 as a write:
John Beshir
Gurkenglas
Matthew Barnett
Natália Mendonça
Pepe
title gore. shutting this down | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 31.623092829449813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646932992290 | 100 | Undox | 1646932923182 | 0 | 1 | 1715657830121 | 0 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | 8ARfXu8SZxIzmNKlkbG0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-someone-outside-the-top-5-trad | 100 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | Will someone outside the top 5 traders be #1 when this market closes? | 1646956745335 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 10} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646933360478 | Undox | Top 5 as a write:
John Beshir, Gurkenglas, Matthew Barnett, Natália Mendonça, Pepe
Resolves yes if the top spot on the leaderboard is not one of those people at the time this market is currently set to resolve. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 31.623092829449813} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1646956745335 | 100 | Undox | 1646933360478 | 0 | 1 | 1715657636104 | 0 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5UFgTdMgX6tKwHPxTF6Y | what-will-inflation-be-in-march | 1027.3182526860883 | What will inflation be in March? | 1649739540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.668743101085248 | True | play | 400719cd1d99 | public | 1646935981485 | Manifold | This market resolves to the month-over-month change in CPI for March 2022 according to https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Answers must be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.
For context, February's inflation was 0.8% and January's was 0.6%. This market resolves on April 12th after the next CPI report is released.
Apr 12, 11:18am: 1.2% inflation in March according the CPI report. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.6494733882615, "platformFee": 8.412368347065375, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649780489535 | 1439.999999999999 | Manifold | 1646935981485 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "60f05d1b467a", "prob": 0.04860557912882113, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.639199124926923, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.511536580388517, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5UFgTdMgX6tKwHPxTF6Y", "createdTime": 1646935981685, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.419", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649780489000, "totalLiquidity": 2.8279609674950477, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "694ac6f48237", "prob": 0.004982071860704165, "text": "0.3%", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.02051099917027636, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, 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"probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649780489000, "totalLiquidity": 0.005818181818181819, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564859}] | ["economics-default"] | 1646947116747 | {"400719cd1d99": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5652428847331874 | wJztrEiNsJ3zFQ6mrTR3 | {"NO": 53.26869085759145, "YES": 185.79073046312473} | 0 | conditional-on-embracing-the-antise | 465.5395766770696 | {"NO": 62, "YES": 109.64287058667648} | Conditional on EMBRACING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory? | 1658298703756 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 62, "YES": 110} | 0 | 2.860243752800635 | True | play | NO | public | 1646936425112 | Daniel Reeves | Anti-Settings Principle: https://blog.bmndr.co/choices
Stay tuned for specifics on what "staying on its rocketship trajectory" means but it will be something ascertainable from https://manifold.markets/analytics
This is one half of a decision market. The idea is to see which choice would yield the better outcome for Manifold and the community. The other half, for the other choice, is here:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/conditional-on-rejecting-the-antise
Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm
Mar 15, 4:00pm: Shall we go with daily active users > 200 as the operationalization of "stays on its rocketship trajectory"? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 112.5749730834541, "YES": 129.57042002415267} | {"creatorFee": 6.51040112831253, "platformFee": 0.6665762704505962, "liquidityFee": 3.9780298579041657} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1658298703756 | 103.97802985790416 | dreev | 1658193027059 | 0 | 19 | 1650314808900 | 0 | 1658193025828 | 1647130659817 | 0.2715437726084389 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4424305018897665 | 1YCMQ6ThgL9Exjkttrf8 | {"NO": 30.863069229218695, "YES": 478.98914944949286} | 0.048641151981574475 | conditional-on-rejecting-the-antise | 682.9529020985033 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 68.04709790149677} | Conditional on REJECTING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory? | 1658298684501 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 68} | 0 | 3.605183390896217 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646936431827 | Daniel Reeves | Anti-Settings Principle: https://blog.bmndr.co/choices
Stay tuned for specifics on what "staying on its rocketship trajectory" means but it will be something ascertainable from https://manifold.markets/analytics
This is one half of a decision market. The idea is to see which choice would yield the better outcome for Manifold and the community. The other half, for the other choice, is here:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/conditional-on-embracing-the-antise
Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 99.25227411127602, "YES": 88.60464118174848} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1658298684501 | 101.91450331126136 | dreev | 1658298680383 | 0 | 15 | 1650313772542 | 0 | 1658298666938 | 1658298675939 | 0.3443840005635313 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6274693485145504 | SUkwdjimpy7vFOQdTWEP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6274693485145504 | will-tis-market-titlebe-handled-cor | 364.60610542204813 | {"NO": 93.52759837469156, "YES": 139.86629620326033} | Wiļ̨̦̮̰̗̗̥̥̮̲̖̗̭̗̖̖̖̖̖̗̰̱̲̯̣̥̥̄̅̇̈̉̏̀̉̄̀̀̊̏̏̋̌̍̎̎͜͜͜͜͜͡͞͞͡l tһis₂ market t̲͎̩̱͔́̋̀itle "be’ handled <correctly? 🙃 '); DROP TABLE Markets;--జ్ఞా | 1647028800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 140} | 0 | 4.808852751007151 | True | play | NO | public | 1646937652584 | Isaac King | Resolves to yes if, after a day, it seems like everything worked as intended, or close to it.
Mar 10, 10:42am: Oh no, they truncated my ~1000 invisible characters at the end.
Mar 11, 9:37pm: Resolving to no since I don't think text overlapping other text is intended behavior (even if it's of such low relevance that the devs may not bother to fix it). If someone wanted to, they could add enough diacritics to every character in their title to significantly obscure other page elements. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 142.45324863755786, "YES": 184.87901116043267} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1647063896720 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1646937652584 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1715658189046 | 0 | 1 | 1647010271879 | 0.6274693485145504 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG | what-happens-if-player-a-casts-ange | 87.5621446179002 | What happens if Player A casts Anger of the Gods and Player B controls a 2/2 creature enchanted by Hyena Umbra? | 1647028800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.086910686078355 | True | play | bbf8fb311566 | public | 1646938844776 | Isaac King | I'll pick one of the 4 answers I started the market with, unless none of them are correct in which case I'll chose the most correct of the remaining answers. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647037591637 | 360 | IsaacKing | 1646938844776 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a9a11ec6d8eb", "prob": 0.014714537963507945, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21578445412206193, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.448927048013266, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938844955, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.276", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647037591000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7657445556209534, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bbf8fb311566", "prob": 0.9742495585638611, "text": "Hyena Umbra is destroyed, the creature stays on the battlefield", "index": 1, "poolNo": 31.67797733567148, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8372822887392405, "textFts": "'battlefield':10 'creatur':6 'destroy':4 'hyena':1 'stay':7 'umbra':2", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938879249, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.277", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647037591000, "totalLiquidity": 5.150088287227783, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "190ec816ae49", "prob": 0.003384343731606827, "text": "The creature gets exiled", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.023666230609638985, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.96919043126456, "textFts": "'creatur':2 'exil':4 'get':3", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938908249, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.281", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647037591000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4061212477928192, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "88167a55c030", "prob": 0.0036786344908769863, "text": "Player A gets to choose between options #1 and #2", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.02682325522502448, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.264810445145629, "textFts": "'1':8 '2':10 'choos':5 'get':3 'option':7 'player':1", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938959001, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.28", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647037591000, "totalLiquidity": 0.44143613890523836, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "962cb20e6891", "prob": 0.003972925250147146, "text": "Player B gets to choose between options #1 and #2", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.04014671376800448, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.064929833171194, "textFts": "'1':8 '2':10 'b':2 'choos':5 'get':3 'option':7 'player':1", "contractId": "6lvOT3HnpeAysfYou7cG", "createdTime": 1646938973349, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.281", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647037591000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6356680400235433, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646950156400 | {"bbf8fb311566": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB | what-secretlychosen-number-will-be | 40 | What secretly-chosen number will be most popular? | 1647115200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.419168393434646 | True | play | 56a05ce12f70 | public | 1646939897146 | Isaac King | Resolves to the number with the most responses in this form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1TQh6qnio-vUMs_QHZ0y3XB3FGSzOK1KmnPRHZl9fkAI/edit
It requires a Google sign-in so as to prevent someone spamming multiple responses.
If multiple numbers are tied, I'll resolve to all of them.
Mar 12, 8:30pm: Heh, someone sneakily tried to submit a 4 after the market had closed. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647146007200 | 660 | IsaacKing | 1646939897146 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a5908d72367a", "prob": 0.0625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.183411578007822, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.75117367011733, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939897315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.224", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 4.583333333333334, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "73402af4afef", "prob": 0.07937499999999999, "text": "1", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3.5737223013625146, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.44955078666917, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939907847, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.223", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 12.170833333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e4fbf913ee6", "prob": 0.04125000000000001, "text": "2", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.9697078317767303, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.538360817356118, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939911310, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.223", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 4.675000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "880769ca1194", "prob": 0.04375, "text": "3", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.060569233367361, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.181013243600894, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939916881, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.226", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 4.958333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ae309e70f006", "prob": 0.280625, "text": "4", "index": 4, "poolNo": 26.874998209903925, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.89336957594524, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939920256, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.227", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 43.02916666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "56a05ce12f70", "prob": 0.080625, "text": "5", "index": 5, "poolNo": 3.660958648106739, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.74628039817839, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939925580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.226", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 12.3625, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7686fd1c2c87", "prob": 0.019374999999999996, "text": "6", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.19971584050828997, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.108198508306677, "textFts": "'6':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939928304, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.224", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4208333333333332, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aa9529156731", "prob": 0.10187499999999998, "text": "7", "index": 7, "poolNo": 5.261015930380094, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.3808582328601, "textFts": "'7':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939931347, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.223", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 15.620833333333332, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "856d8eb2fc69", "prob": 0.021875, "text": "8", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.23989784075135, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.726860593596081, "textFts": "'8':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939948965, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.81", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6041666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "95b2b3749406", "prob": 0.023124999999999996, "text": "9", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.2609183001811989, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.022035221167943, "textFts": "'9':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939952495, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.811", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6958333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b97837534e05", "prob": 0.024375, "text": "10", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.2825380233264901, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.308765497760282, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646939961448, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.807", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7875000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1ed1ce6436b8", "prob": 0.22125000000000006, "text": "NaN", "index": 11, "poolNo": 13.365448953264218, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.043359875048615, "textFts": "'nan':1", "contractId": "HI9OULjrEZ0KE8RfRNOB", "createdTime": 1646940182148, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.811", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647146007000, "totalLiquidity": 25.07500000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646944490724 | {"56a05ce12f70": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8681695053811976 | QC2WmlZF8EnhKtrGLs9B | {"NO": 23071.180744984715, "YES": 134.52172799169418} | 1 | elon-musk-will-have-fathered-at-lea | 25099.365464342343 | {"NO": 30.820478590345473, "YES": 39.984884338851145} | Elon Musk will have fathered at least 10 children by 2030 | 1697168266408 | a2ZMgkoSxoW9PH90sLFiP6y6qy32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 41} | 0 | 2.48001173256541 | True | play | YES | public | 1646947407649 | Eric Jang | Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, SpaceX, etc. will have sired / fathered at least 10 biological children by the year 2030. As of 2022-03-10, he has 7. To qualify for the count, the children must be at least in the 2nd trimester.
Mar 10, 1:23pm: Musk's first-born child Nevada was not counted initially at the time of market creation, so please assume either Nevada as not qualifying or the threshold being 11 if qualifying.
Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 am
Mar 11, 7:50am: thanks Rutger, sorry - I made a mistake. updated to 01/01/2030. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 38.757518742612156, "YES": 59.257031415496826} | {"creatorFee": 3.6018454576710512, "platformFee": 0.010151156611488545, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1697168266408 | 300 | EricJang | 1710451921787 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx2InKhVMU6Ww6eTGrwheYzGHXU4BCwlkQhe-aMA=s96-c | 27 | 1650314578206 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Musk Family", "slug": "musk-children", "groupId": "5f0a8f51-6496-4fd3-ab25-2fbb48f39fe7"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "musk-children"] | 1696686317943 | 1696594373477 | False | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G | the-pyramid-scheme | 10600.787972148362 | The Pyramid Scheme | 1647557940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.666510009847074 | True | play | MKT | public | 1646953541683 | Gurkenglas | Buy any legal answer at the listed price (and don't sell before the previous holder) and you may legally submit an answer at an equal or higher price. You may also buy or sell existing answers at any time, of course. This market resolves such that each *legal* answer pays out money proportionally to its *pool* at close. If this market sees exploding activity near close I may extend it one day at a time.
Mar 11, 7:54pm: @Yev points out a fun detail: If you sell your first stake before the previous owner, not only does your own answer become illegal but all others sired from it. So far, the answers that will certainly be legal at close time are #3 and #8.
Mar 15, 5:38pm: The legality of each answer is currently stated or uncertain.
Mar 18, 12:00am:
Pools:
0 50
1 15.594447936344835
2 24.839571386311377
3 38.07363283079428
4 0
5 0
6 77
7 62.874760397947284
8 39.41459996718652
9 4.843485476025762
10 636.5715298570279
0 is the subsidy. 1 has no shares, 4 and 5 have no pool, 8 and 9 are illegal due to selling #2 too soon, 2 and 3 and 6 and 7 and 10 are legal. 25+38+77+63+637=840, so 25/840, 38/840, 77/840, 63/840 and 637/840 of the M$ 949 goes to these.
Mar 18, 1:47am: According to the formula I just got from SG in today's AMA, prob payout is weighted by the probability I assign times the *shares* that the answer has, so I need p2*shares2+... to align with the above ratios. 25/175~=0.1429, 38/329~=0.1155, 77/216~=0.3565, 63/757~=0.0832, 637/244~=2.611, after normalization that gives resolve probabilities of 4%,3%,11%,2%,80%. Let's hope I got this right, here goes nothing! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.031342308346627, "platformFee": 7.257835577086657, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647565537433 | 760.0000000000002 | Gurkenglas | 1646953541683 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4af9faa7a114", "prob": 0.0027836880585751754, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.011231112140206435, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.023384801668416, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646953541956, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2125725426548316, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "830d657c4e09", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "20 M$", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00011636945498185454, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.1635781803635639, "textFts": "'20':1 'm':2", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646953553391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.307", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 0.011636363636363637, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a0c5947f144", "prob": 0.034006830774057556, "text": "30", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.7633686325454263, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.089997070989334, "textFts": "'30':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646954296216, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 9.398251413921361, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "53ad4d75580b", "prob": 0.12072598771093417, "text": "69", "index": 3, "poolNo": 10.573522528830626, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.00929811578342, "textFts": "'69':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646955320690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.307", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 28.535233458948078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "846b3b7b9467", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "60", "index": 4, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'60':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646955633851, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.306", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "31d2ffcc29c4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "so I'd have to buy 69M$ for #3 and then create a new answer > 69 and put the same amount of M$ in that? Oof, gotta need some more liquidity then", "index": 5, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'3':9 '69':16 '69m':7 'amount':21 'answer':15 'buy':6 'creat':12 'd':3 'gotta':27 'liquid':31 'm':23 'need':28 'new':14 'oof':26 'put':18", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646959751206, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5cec09d2ab2f", "prob": 0.05180170116858742, "text": "77", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.9245982100049127, "userId": "7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.92420190943189, "textFts": "'77':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646959840850, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.307", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 3.9557662710557673, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bae291afb8a2", "prob": 0.637483905206608, "text": "420", "index": 7, "poolNo": 94.31912772847387, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.63618056735694, "textFts": "'420':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1646966428097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 71.12606952306606, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8b2c6ada4503", "prob": 0.0843130210904363, "text": "42", "index": 8, "poolNo": 4.000407374470729, "userId": "WHibZnTOS5MeVYfwquIRRENnLG13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.44668113846241, "textFts": "'42':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1647021650251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 13.183490570504587, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1758124d2de3", "prob": 0.0021936368846204616, "text": "50", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.016082728741978313, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.315453704992318, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1647023764758, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 0.343005040140654, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c1baaebb9d30", "prob": 0.06639122910618087, "text": "31", "index": 10, "poolNo": 1.3519797993722045, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.01185165206779, "textFts": "'31':1", "contractId": "rA3nx80HeYCtzLjaLO3G", "createdTime": 1647476355900, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565537000, "totalLiquidity": 5.069875677199267, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647520134459 | {"53ad4d75580b": 3, "5cec09d2ab2f": 11, "6a0c5947f144": 4, "bae291afb8a2": 2, "c1baaebb9d30": 80} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09711911628642847 | iM93SADJoZHPtLJ3objD | {"NO": 88.2425306383987, "YES": 325.2045154638304} | 0 | will-ukrainian-army-invade-belarus | 933.6062829801311 | {"NO": 569, "YES": 63} | Will Ukrainian army invade Belarus by the September 1, 2022? | 1662015540000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 569, "YES": 63} | 0 | 8.098119920929989 | True | play | NO | public | 1646966851828 | Oleg S | This resolves to YES if by September 1, 2022 Ukrainian army invades and fights on the territory of Belarus. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 600.5373743580411, "YES": 196.9267021004262} | {"creatorFee": 1.255845338393398, "platformFee": 0.013328756470986655, "liquidityFee": 0.07997253882591994} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1662050638930 | 100.07997253882591 | OlegStroganov | 1661717122224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 25 | 1650314722226 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1661717122146 | 1647117474696 | 0.02835967070320198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11742870666073654 | 2jhLYgZe3DxXeHB4T32F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11742870666073654 | should-scientific-journals-ban-russ | 235.99999999999997 | {"NO": 128.00000000000006, "YES": 26} | Should scientific journals ban Russian scientists from publishing their research? | 1647055275756 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 128, "YES": 26} | 0 | 4.895492813478947 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646966968849 | Oleg S | Mar 11, 6:59am: Clarification: here, "Russian scientists" = "Scientists working in Russia". The question is not about scientists who emigrated long time ago, but about scientists who work in Russia right now.
The question will be resolved to YES/NO if there is an explicit statement about banning/not banning made by at least 2 major publishers. The question resolves to probability if statements are conflicting or no such statements. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.1417312508474, "YES": 38.3803595671015} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647055275756 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1646966968849 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 10 | 1715656928781 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468004}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522191}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226457}] | ["politics-default", "science-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1647049279593 | False | 0.11742870666073654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47802877813258393 | OlkJWU63fdvtoaRTM5U2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.47802877813258393 | will-it-ever-be-tranche-time-again | 48203.87962716284 | {"NO": 7306, "YES": 4536.120372837158} | Will it ever be TRANCHE TIME again????????????? | 1647568059760 | jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7306, "YES": 4582} | 0 | 4.619333667260382 | True | play | YES | public | 1646967179935 | Spindle | All the tulip speculators are wondering when it will be TRANCHE TIME again. This market will resolve to YES if it is ever TRANCHE TIME. The market will remain open until October 13th, 2022, when it will be TRANCHE TIME
Close date updated to 2022-10-21 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8552.033244322705, "YES": 8191.371435663628} | {"creatorFee": 290.40481491348635, "platformFee": 72.60120372837159, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1647568059760 | 100 | Spindle | 1646967179935 | 0 | 11 | 1715658089942 | 0 | 1647568044723 | 0.47802877813258393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gg0okN5idFKPyiJ4HO8Y | what-will-be-the-most-represented-d | 100 | What will be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on 2022-03-10? | 1646971266304 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1646971216170 | andrei klepatch | I will choose the answer based on results published at https://magic.wizards.com/en/content/deck-lists-magic-online-products-game-info. In instances where the archetype of a deck is ambiguous I will use my best judgement as the tiebreaker. Market closes at the start of said event and will resolve when results are published. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1646971266304 | 220 | andreiklepatch | 1646971216170 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0a0dc1abeae4", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gg0okN5idFKPyiJ4HO8Y", "createdTime": 1646971216488, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.092", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1646971266000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0 | what-will-be-the-most-represented-d-257e13de8849 | 250 | What will be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Modern Super Qualifier on 2022-03-13? | 1647180000000 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.797109350291603 | True | play | 07024ae44ad8 | public | 1646971360314 | andrei klepatch | I will choose the answer based on results published at https://magic.wizards.com/en/content/deck-lists-magic-online-products-game-info. In instances where the archetype of a deck is ambiguous I will use my best judgement as the tiebreaker. Market closes at the start of said event and will resolve when results are published.
Mar 11, 10:32pm: UR/Grixis Murktide is clearly two different decks but I guess I didn't establish clear guidelines for how I would determine valid answers so this is on me and I will accept the lost ante as price of messing around with the platform. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647309045208 | 320 | andreiklepatch | 1646971360314 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "45a4ec4f73f4", "prob": 0.15999999999999998, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.776161482572455, "userId": "EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 51.324847783505405, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0", "createdTime": 1646971360551, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647309045000, "totalLiquidity": 22.399999999999995, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3083f018e1b4", "prob": 0.07680000000000001, "text": "4 color blink", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3.987185463056753, "userId": "HLqEGO64xfh4iRdPGYq3UvbpmZx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.92929192049472, "textFts": "'4':1 'blink':3 'color':2", "contractId": "ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0", "createdTime": 1646972662951, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.173", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647309045000, "totalLiquidity": 13.824000000000002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "07024ae44ad8", "prob": 0.6848000000000001, "text": "UR/Grixis Murktide", "index": 2, "poolNo": 83.62718639294282, "userId": "XUvQl2atRmSjYZzM1VE3JEoM8jN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.49195261544329, "textFts": "'murktid':2 'ur/grixis':1", "contractId": "ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0", "createdTime": 1646973511829, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.173", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647309045000, "totalLiquidity": 56.73599999999999, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b79211002760", "prob": 0.0784, "text": "do ppl even have the rental limit to be able to play 4c yorion is why I voted for murktimde lmeow ", "index": 3, "poolNo": 3.201333333333333, "userId": "e2oVZpQTVhhgQr3R6oIfvUBszTp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.632, "textFts": "'4c':13 'abl':10 'even':3 'limit':7 'lmeow':21 'murktimd':20 'play':12 'ppl':2 'rental':6 'vote':18 'yorion':14", "contractId": "ajRWEhXoiSl6jKwkKxg0", "createdTime": 1646986605988, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.177", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647309045000, "totalLiquidity": 10.975999999999999, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1646986671017 | {"07024ae44ad8": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8163233254957967 | cmGWOQUy2PgK1wE9tueO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-i-be-able-to-successfully-do-m | 115.38004843990416 | {"NO": 21.826707008813436, "YES": 82.79324455128241} | Will I be able to successfully do my taxes this year using Cash App Taxes? | 1650092340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21, "YES": 84} | 0 | 4.622844094415732 | True | play | YES | public | 1646978324498 | Austin | Daylen and I have a friendly $10 bet; he's skeptical that the free Cash App from Square will be able to fully handle my tax situation. We'll see!
(The most complicated thing I have is a new LLC I filed for https://oneword.games) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 44.837941876293975, "YES": 94.52567097692565} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652450734507 | 100 | Austin | 1646978324498 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 1650314674338 | 0 | 1 | 1647446001110 | 0.8163233254957967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39769237636688126 | ErrlhVHPmaTOlyTi5ApN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-i-get-a-job-in-a-russian-speak | 117 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 52} | Will I get a job in a Russian speaking country this year? | 1663066091487 | wXslNDzVt6NofBzQFqXT1G9aTph1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 52} | 0 | 2.893742181973077 | True | play | YES | public | 1646991273594 | Samuel Millerick | I have been learning Russian for some time. My plans for this year were to travel to a Russian speaking country (likely Russia although I had also considered Ukraine) and teach English whilst learning the language better. I still hope to carry out this plan if possible but obviously events may have rendered it less likely. Resolved when I either move to a country with a considerable number of Russian speakers and start work or when the year ends.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 90.80269820054909, "YES": 73.78417174774005} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1663066091487 | 100 | SamuelMillerick | 1663066142925 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg2mlxiWQHCqZ81Iy388FOfWXh6immGMD_Bf3yrtA=s96-c | 6 | 1650313865094 | 0 | 7 | 1661419540745 | 1663066134400 | 0.39769237636688126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6034174831164886 | 1nw3EEfldcRL60RmqIyL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6034174831164886 | will-the-person-whos-meant-to-be-ta | 339.3114582896651 | {"NO": 41.839850279988056, "YES": 124.00000000000001} | Will the person who's meant to be taking over my tenancy fall through? | 1648477125100 | Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 124} | 0 | 4.8779366932041945 | True | play | NO | public | 1646995681418 | Ferruginous Duck | I live in a flatshare with friends, and we're contracted until November. However, I've signed a new contract for a place with my girlfriend starting on the 1st of April. My current landlord says he'll release me from the first contract if I find someone to replace me, and pay an admin fee. I've lined up a girlfriend of a friend of a friend to replace me and she sent the letting agency her details a couple of weeks ago. I've asked for an update on the situation but she hasn't replied to me for a few days, and the lettings agency practically employ a no-reply policy. I'm currently legally liable for double-rent next month and I'm getting a teensy bit nervous.
Mar 13, 2:56pm: Incoming tenant replied on Friday saying the letting agency said they’d send forms that day.
Mar 28, 3:18pm: They came through. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 104.43794027693849, "YES": 128.82509170305315} | {"creatorFee": 4.787541668413397, "platformFee": 1.1968854171033492, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1648477125100 | 100 | FerruginousDuck | 1646995681418 | 0 | 7 | 1715656903297 | 0 | 1647014179502 | 0.6034174831164886 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM | looking-for-compilationoverview-of | 2722.1442332821043 | Looking for compilation/overview of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, will reward the best ones found | 1647644340000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.662596775930437 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647001799699 | Account deletion requested | I will use probability for rewarding the best ones found.
Requirements: sources provided in material, I am not interested in out-of-context video clips that could be from other wars or even movies.
Mar 11, 1:30pm: Existence of video/photos materials are preferred | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.220659975027004, "platformFee": 4.055164993756751, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647812965564 | 400.00000000000006 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647001799699 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "67c29df86a03", "prob": 0.15144524043748953, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.089848049691858, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.13693687703087, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM", "createdTime": 1647001799893, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.274", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647812965000, "totalLiquidity": 26.250508342498186, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "74a7d234bb38", "prob": 0.74275213550837, "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes#Ukraine", "index": 1, "poolNo": 180.67508766528917, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.57576147784755, "textFts": "'/wiki/russian_war_crimes#ukraine':3 'en.wikipedia.org':2 'en.wikipedia.org/wiki/russian_war_crimes#ukraine':1", "contractId": "eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM", "createdTime": 1647002010100, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.275", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647812965000, "totalLiquidity": 106.32911732320706, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b7fc394932fe", "prob": 0.10580262405414033, "text": "https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/03/17/hospitals-bombed-and-apartments-destroyed-mapping-incidents-of-civilian-harm-in-ukraine/", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.7640206559432725, "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.61809746591294, "textFts": "'/news/2022/03/17/hospitals-bombed-and-apartments-destroyed-mapping-incidents-of-civilian-harm-in-ukraine/':3 'www.bellingcat.com':2 'www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/03/17/hospitals-bombed-and-apartments-destroyed-mapping-incidents-of-civilian-harm-in-ukraine/':1", "contractId": "eV626sIhAaso5H5SNBbM", "createdTime": 1647644068799, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.276", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647812965000, "totalLiquidity": 22.57122646488327, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647008482046 | {"74a7d234bb38": 74.81748051118726, "b7fc394932fe": 25.182519488812744} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06526680309516164 | maOXMZ3rtItuCQD4LGBq | {"NO": 119.04186299943697, "YES": 1245.7177446206372} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-get-sued-by-a | 1871.4411732931076 | {"NO": 382.5011799673211, "YES": 74} | Will Manifold Markets get sued by any kind of governmental institution in 2022? | 1672441140000 | 7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 388, "YES": 74} | 9.425605682870438 | True | play | NO | public | 1647012994818 | hagi | Note that this does include the governments of other countries than the US as well. Let's just say for simplicities sake, that they have to be a regular member of the UN. (Sorry Liberland)
Mar 11, 4:36pm: Related question https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-manifold-launch-a-crypto-token-9b99f6930706b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 438.45565995373954, "YES": 127.08609117227206} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1676744042445 | 140 | hagi | 1676744036098 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyPZTFzyMrMxcOLgNNBJ4w6IqNRsLyBep8fIL4H=s96-c | 24 | 1650314747456 | 0 | 10 | 24 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670484661}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1671922954562 | 1676744034543 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.67999872000896 | hs7XrdV1MO4PdqWjjjOf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.67999872000896 | will-congressman-jeff-fortenberry-b | 125 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 75} | Will Congressman Jeff Fortenberry be convicted of a felony by March 31st? | 1648184426379 | rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.950451531069062 | True | play | YES | public | 1647016506828 | Tobias Pace | Congressman Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) has been charged with lying to the FBI in connection to an investigation into illegal campaign contributions. His trial is scheduled to start on March 16th and last 3-5 days. This market resolves yes if he is found guilty or agrees to plead guilty by March 31st. It resolves no in any other circumstance, such as an acquittal, mistrial, or delay in trial. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 103.07836824717397} | {"creatorFee": 1.9999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.49999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648184426379 | 100 | TobiasPace | 1647016506828 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c | 3 | 1715658549039 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500571}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647017865666 | 0.67999872000896 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6719863267048679 | 89iK6eAlxUQlWFjvHlWN | {"NO": 1714.2970489125319, "YES": 26.346252926312907} | 1 | will-russia-and-ukraine-still-be-at | 2999.904736235016 | {"NO": 477.1503536893246, "YES": 641.7947176920268} | Will Russia and Ukraine still be at war on July 10? | 1657486800000 | ARMEVhOiWvaqFvLASFGwHkDwohI3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 482, "YES": 649} | 0 | 4.863743532988857 | True | play | YES | public | 1647046337975 | Alex Mennen | Resolves yes if, on July 10, there is still ongoing fighting between Russian armed forces and Ukrainian armed forces, or if there was recent fighting, with widespread expectation of renewed fighting. A seemingly-stable ceasefire will result in the question resolving no, even if there is no formal peace treaty. If Ukraine capitulates to Russia, this question resolves no, even if there is an ongoing insurgency in Ukraine.
Question inspired by reported DoD intent to supply Ukraine with anti-drone weapons within 120 days, seemingly implying that this would not be too late to make a difference. https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-pentagon-revives-team-speed-arms-ukraine-allies-sources-2022-03-11/
Mar 13, 1:54pm: I mean July 10, 2022.
Mar 15, 7:48pm: If there is a peace agreement before July 10, but it is broken by July 10 and there is fighting on that date, this market resolves yes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 644.3913442352482, "YES": 914.7677880940332} | {"creatorFee": 4.370639826508145, "platformFee": 0.4191610741661832, "liquidityFee": 1.809070970069499} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1657492167779 | 101.8090709700695 | AlexMennen | 1657472281311 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyFM2z_17VRw8GAHhGexJCyKLxup92j73FsxTn3=s96-c | 39 | 1650313816604 | 0 | 1 | 1657472280025 | 1648648128227 | 0.9925540782337166 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32476834818320555 | cimoLjq79Uy6NAPWfwSW | {"NO": 68.47422411311706, "YES": 322.9912637314233} | 0 | will-manifold-implement-retroactive | 1121.254460738557 | {"NO": 168.9392667425751, "YES": 118.99135596228442} | Will Manifold implement retroactive public goods funding by June 1? | 1654153140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 174, "YES": 116} | 0 | 3.171665258274964 | True | play | NO | public | 1647051369949 | Austin | Alternatively called "Project Shares." The idea would be 1) to let people create & trade shares of a project in M$, and 2) pay out useful projects from a community pool. This lets creators of community initiatives to raise money for their work via startup-like equity funding.
Vitalik describes this concept: https://medium.com/ethereum-optimism/retroactive-public-goods-funding-33c9b7d00f0c . I think it'd be super cool to test out on the Manifold infrastructure!
# Rough sketch
At any time: Create or trade on projects
- Anyone can create a new “project”; their statement of claim for a public good; they are issued e.g. 10k shares. Example public goods: useful blog post; helpful comments; implementing a Manifold feature; creating and resolving a valuable market
- Anyone can buy or sell their project shares on an open market
Every month: An oracle (Philanthrobot?) pays out
- Manifold sets aside e.g. M$ 400,000
- Each user can send their M$ towards which projects deserve funding this month
- Money is matched via quadratic funding
- Holders of the selected projects receive payouts proportional to their shares
- Or: Selected projects gain a price floor
See also: Impact Certificates: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yNn2o3kEhixZHkRga/certificates-of-impact
Close date updated to 2022-06-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 240.37396601913701, "YES": 158.50859854810503} | {"creatorFee": 7.339488637731207, "platformFee": 1.2385277441097564, "liquidityFee": 7.156132983876545} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1654406009034 | 107.15613298387656 | Austin | 1654149929406 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 25 | 1650314673862 | 0 | 1 | 1654149929226 | 1653577509726 | 0.09253134631448902 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05856460190376812 | LaT47TcRit6wOxBquW8a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05856460190376812 | will-scientific-journals-ban-scient | 165 | {"NO": 153, "YES": 12} | Will scientific journals ban scientists from Russia? | 1648912368689 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 153, "YES": 12} | 0 | 4.8791088296505905 | True | play | NO | public | 1647055451435 | Oleg S | The question is about scientists who are now working in Russia (not the ones who emigrated long ago). The question will be resolved to YES/NO if there is an explicit statement about banning/not banning publications made by at least 2 major publishers. The question resolves to probability if statements are conflicting or no such statements. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 159.19266943204389, "YES": 43.39382444657304} | {"creatorFee": 0.4799999999999999, "platformFee": 0.11999999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648912368689 | 100 | OlegStroganov | 1647055451435 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 7 | 1715657979045 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482445}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527286}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226610}] | ["politics-default", "science-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1648912317521 | False | 0.05856460190376812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49095732507283824 | TOCUjAsJJV6pAKdV7K3R | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49095732507283824 | was-the-jarun-drone-ukrainian | 282.445047987679 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 121.55495201232097} | Was the Jarun drone Ukrainian? | 1647662340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 128} | 0 | 2.773495876936597 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647055613455 | Jenny | On March 11, an aircraft crashed in Jarun neighborhood of Zagreb, Croatia. It is suspected to be a Soviet reconnaissance drone Tu-141 Strizh. Ukraine says it's Russian, Russia says it's Ukrainian.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-military-drone-crashes-into-croatian-capital-zagreb
Resolves YES if the aircraft belonged to Ukrainian military.
Resolves NO if the aircraft belonged to Russian military, Belorussian military, or LNR/DNR.
Resolves N/A if the aircraft belonged to some other country or entity, or its origin is unknown by the end of March. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 158.0740272174491, "YES": 155.2405932459131} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1662828616181 | 100 | Jenny | 1662803308675 | 0 | 8 | 1650314604324 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662754407497}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662754404088}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662754409408}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225138}] | ["ukraine", "russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1662803304623 | False | 0.4909573250728382 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27211013923365546 | Zm5OFmKW0OW2APbfnwED | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.27211013923365546 | will-my-till-be-over-the-expected-c | 21 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 6} | Will my till be over the expected count at the end of my shift? | 1647117000000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 6} | 0 | 5.816732506777513 | True | play | NO | public | 1647091155830 | Em ✨ | Cashiering. Sometimes people leave behind their change, or I make mistakes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 17.917310085501118, "YES": 10.954998872660829} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1647117807108 | 100 | hamnox | 1647091155830 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 2 | 1715658344277 | 0 | 0.27211013923365546 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9p1EJ6WPnAlQyJodDgvC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | how-many-senators-will-vote-to-conf | 13.000000000000002 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5.999999999999998} | How many senators will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson as a Supreme Court Justice? | 1647100239361 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 6} | 0 | 6.2917399635737015 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647097124767 | aps | This market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm President Biden's appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the US Supreme Court.
If 50 senators vote to confirm, this market resolves 50%. If 100 senators vote to confirm, it resolves 100%. If 30 vote to confirm, it resolves 30%.
I'm not a US politics expert so I hope this all makes sense. Close date may be moved depending on how things go. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 8.42686184175343} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647100239361 | 100 | aps | 1647097124767 | 0 | 2 | 1715657683921 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474338}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647100234522 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.53 | 493THFlQo1h3IAkvzqei | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.53 | how-many-senators-will-vote-to-conf-7d532e473903 | 266.0127261302323 | {"NO": 107, "YES": 112.98727386976772} | How many senators will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson as a Supreme Court Justice? (higher ante version) | 1648924140000 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 107, "YES": 113} | 0 | 4.819504750609799 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647100324766 | aps | This market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm President Biden's appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the US Supreme Court.
If 50 senators vote to confirm, this market resolves 50%. If 100 senators vote to confirm, it resolves 100%. If 30 vote to confirm, it resolves 30%.
I'm not a US politics expert so I hope this all makes sense. Close date may be moved depending on how things go.
The first version of this was resolved N/A a few hours after making it since the ante was a bit too low.
Close date updated to 2022-04-02 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 153.1705389443414, "YES": 157.9038525169666} | {"creatorFee": 0.2258928238829711, "platformFee": 0.056473205970742776, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649385243397 | 100 | aps | 1647100324766 | 0 | 11 | 1715656966301 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469230}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330762}] | ["politics-default", "scotus"] | 1648222341327 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | HAaEDVoSLwBlK6PQVss0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | test-market-will-resolve-na | 12.000000000000002 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 4.999999999999998} | Test market, will resolve N/A | 1647102671754 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647102411968 | aps | This is to test something | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647102671754 | 100 | aps | 1647102411968 | 0 | 1 | 1715657875181 | 0 | 1647102428213 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | LE6J7IgQeelUXeY3m4bL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5000000000000001 | test-market-pt-2 | 102 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Test market pt. 2 | 1647105805209 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647102692872 | aps | Testing, will resolve N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647105805209 | 100 | aps | 1647102692872 | 0 | 1 | 1715657969899 | 0 | 1647102968409 | 0.5000000000000001 |
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