p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5134613014132144 | TQvgaC3Kb7PqHV4VXBTM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5134613014132144 | will-my-estradiol-level-be-100pgml | 152 | {"NO": 69, "YES": 83} | Will my estradiol level be >=100pg/mL on 2022-03-14? | 1647394420395 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 69, "YES": 83} | 0 | 4.8986941882442485 | True | play | YES | public | 1647109516974 | Ophelia | I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon.
I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day. I intend to get a trough-ish measurement. After the blood draw, I intend to post the time of the blood draw as well as the times I took estradiol in the 24h before that.
My previous levels were:
Dec 2021: 75pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 4 times a day
Timings:
20:25 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
23:45 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
10:25: 1mg estradiol sublabially
16:30: blood draw (16:41 according to the results document)
Sept 2021: 69pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
Timings:
19:10 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
23:16 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
11:51: blood draw
July 2021: 74pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
Timings:
20:45 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
00:30: 1mg estradiol sublabially
11:12: blood draw
June 2021: 439pg/mL (absolutely no idea why)
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 5 times a day
The "Market close" is just an estimate, I'll push it back as long as I don't have the results, and will resolve the market as soon as I have them.
If the test doesn't happen or gets rescheduled, or if results take an unreasonably long time, this will resolve N/A.
I might trade on this market myself, but I won't trade on timing related stuff until 3h after I posted that information here.
If you have questions, feel free to ask here or on Discord; please leave some contact info in case I want to answer privately.
Mar 12, 3:26pm: @gurkenglas my last pre-HRT level was 33pg/mL
Mar 14, 4:28pm: Just did the blood draw!
Timings:
18:05 (previous day): 2mg estradiol sublabially
22:35 (previous day): 2mg estradiol sublabially
09:50: 2mg estradiol sublabially
16:15: blood draw
I ate two tangerines around noon in case this is relevant. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 106.02423308093299, "YES": 108.91816194097291} | {"creatorFee": 2.7600000000000007, "platformFee": 0.6900000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1647394420395 | 100 | Ophelia | 1647109516974 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 5 | 1715658205944 | 0 | [{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1670680861314}] | ["trans-questions"] | 1647114610915 | 0.5134613014132144 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24226898922507292 | UmUnkWUWmFQouvtEy4sL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.24226898922507292 | will-my-estradiol-level-be-150pgml | 111 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 25} | Will my estradiol level be >=150pg/mL on 2022-03-14? | 1647394464453 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 86, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.985598291965444 | True | play | NO | public | 1647109694763 | Ophelia | I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon.
I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day. I intend to get a trough-ish measurement. After the blood draw, I intend to post the time of the blood draw as well as the times I took estradiol in the 24h before that.
My previous levels were:
Dec 2021: 75pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 4 times a day
Timings:
20:25 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
23:45 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
10:25: 1mg estradiol sublabially
16:30: blood draw (16:41 according to the results document)
Sept 2021: 69pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
Timings:
19:10 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
23:16 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
11:51: blood draw
July 2021: 74pg/mL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
Timings:
20:45 (previous day): 1mg estradiol sublabially
00:30: 1mg estradiol sublabially
11:12: blood draw
June 2021: 439pg/mL (absolutely no idea why)
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 5 times a day
The "Market close" is just an estimate, I'll push it back as long as I don't have the results, and will resolve the market as soon as I have them.
If the test doesn't happen or gets rescheduled, or if results take an unreasonably long time, this will resolve N/A.
I might trade on this market myself, but I won't trade on timing related stuff until 3h after I posted that information here.
If you have questions, feel free to ask here or on Discord; please leave some contact info in case I want to answer privately.
Mar 14, 4:22pm: Just did the blood draw!
Timings:
18:05 (previous day): 2mg estradiol sublabially
22:35 (previous day): 2mg estradiol sublabially
09:50: 2mg estradiol sublabially
16:15: blood draw
I ate two tangerines around noon in case this is relevant. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 96.62386869091922, "YES": 54.635611099355344} | {"creatorFee": 0.9999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.24999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1647394464453 | 100 | Ophelia | 1647109694763 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 5 | 1715658230276 | 0 | 0.24226898922507292 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37383434858378206 | swG8PugIvyFnA9vGuIYe | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.37383434858378206 | will-my-testosterone-level-be-25ngd | 111 | {"NO": 63, "YES": 48} | Will my testosterone level be >25ng/dL on 2022-03-14? | 1647394369440 | FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 63, "YES": 48} | 0 | 4.985598291965444 | True | play | YES | public | 1647110627195 | Ophelia | I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon.
I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day.
My previous levels were:
Dec 2021: 28ng/dL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 4 times a day
Sept 2021: 30ng/dL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
July 2021: 25ng/dL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day
June 2021: 35ng/dL
Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 5 times a day
The "Market close" is just an estimate, I'll push it back as long as I don't have the results, and will resolve the market as soon as I have them.
If the test doesn't happen or gets rescheduled, or if results take an unreasonably long time, this will resolve N/A.
I might trade on this market myself if I feel like it. (But not once I have the test results, of course) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 87.83578997481608, "YES": 67.86822526411015} | {"creatorFee": 2.5200000000000005, "platformFee": 0.6300000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647394369440 | 100 | Ophelia | 1647110627195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c | 5 | 1715658795875 | 0 | 1647113771016 | 0.37383434858378206 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2493822770948331 | lxaRTFo6IObqsfzkfk3O | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-braid-anniversary-edition-rele | 225 | {"NO": 180, "YES": 45} | Will Braid: Anniversary Edition release before Taiji? | 1664040366724 | xo3XVaWMH0QgXoj6Sw6OOnC8pru1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 180, "YES": 45} | 0 | 3.7028921288377328 | True | play | NO | public | 1647123138302 | Vo Ice | http://braid-game.com/
https://taiji-game.com/
Both sort of related games, both delayed, the Braid game seems to have been delayed even further than its announced goal.
Market close is arbitrarily far just because it depends on an unknown release date. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 194.93681027656118, "YES": 112.36142576614094} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1664040366724 | 100 | voice | 1663815613003 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVKgB8vuV1CQfZCm7WI0kbUa-oPXlu7GKqGZwJCw=s96-c | 5 | 1650314742619 | 0 | 6 | 1663815612782 | 0.24938227709483307 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
V4xR8Bu8UQbW4RiXfIeL | lottery | 10 | Lottery | 1647127799669 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.36638862471458 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647127617735 | Undox | A lottery ticket costs 50.
To play: add an answer and buy 50 in total.
You can buy multiple tickets.
Tickets with less than 50 bet are ignored.
If the 50 is bet by multiple people that is ok.
More than 50 is OK but doesn’t increase the chance.
When this closes I declare then use a provably fair selection method. Probably will be an actual lottery outcome.
One winner is selected.
Mar 13, 10:28am: will redo as 20 for loans sake | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647127799669 | 220 | Undox | 1647127617735 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3a1810095688", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "V4xR8Bu8UQbW4RiXfIeL", "createdTime": 1647127617920, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.618", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647127799000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy | lottery-ca927a402889 | 1507 | Lottery | 1647781140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.665407632173063 | True | play | 00f9021747b7 | public | 1647127889491 | Undox | A lottery ticket costs 20.
To play: add an answer and buy 20 in total.
You can buy multiple tickets.
Tickets with less than 20 bet are ignored. If the 20 is bet by multiple people that is ok. More than 20 is OK but doesn’t increase the chance.
When this closes I declare then use a provably fair selection method. Probably will be an actual lottery outcome. One winner is selected.
Mar 20, 8:28pm: I will use something similar to https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-this-d10-come-up-1, i.e. I will pick a block number for https://blockexplorer.one/ethereum/mainnet after market close that is in the future
Depending on the number of outcomes I will make a fair scheme (equal probability of each) from the block number.
Watch this space.
Mar 20, 8:32pm: I will also announce in Discord to get a timestamp to prove it was fair dinkum.
https://manifold.markets/Undox/lottery-ca927a402889
Lottery number selection system:
Use the last 2 numeric digits of the hash of chosen future block.
This will be a number from 00-99
If 1-34, I will pick that answer
If 35-68, I will subtract 34 and that is the answer
Otherwise take the previous 2 numeric digits.
Example:
0x6958a28179b80c43dcad9cbf6231cef9d07829437a0b45f1272fbbae55c179b5
Last 2 digits are 95, which cannot give an answer.
Previous 2 digits are 17, so 17 would win.
Chosen future block is: 14423890
Mar 21, 1:48am: Winner is
https://blockexplorer.one/ethereum/mainnet/blockId/14423890 -> 0x302bd856cc7d782968f044dd13f5e131a20db4272b04d21db5aa384a03d60326 -> #26 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.96, "platformFee": 9.49, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647788043462 | 1139.9999999999993 | Undox | 1647127889491 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a0d5576a69d3", "prob": 0.00010650069598204824, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.652704164575008e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5307103484657056, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647127889738, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.833", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 0.005477178650505338, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "01edb1d0f762", "prob": 0.013387137484943468, "text": "Nothing is beyond our reach.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.14257393389499812, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.507494764910193, "textFts": "'beyond':3 'noth':1 'reach':5", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647128082044, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 1.22396685576626, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "34f3512b97ce", "prob": 0.0398504304225628, "text": "Today is your lucky day", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.7422701791116468, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.884132879545984, "textFts": "'day':5 'lucki':4 'today':1", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647128779622, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6434679243485992, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "14efd843e244", "prob": 0.09761960294410522, "text": "Why not", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.935571502997297, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.135965508663556, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647134649211, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 8.925220840603906, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ee0f7f9c27cd", "prob": 0.10299362806335939, "text": "We are told lotteries are not rational to participate in because of their negative expected value. (A tax on poor mathematical reasoning, they say!) True enough. But have you talked to someone who buys lottery tickets? They will tell you it buys them a moment of fantasy. A dream to distract them from the daily grind. Isn't that worth something?\n\nOnce again, the academic's model is not complete. Beware prescriptions from on high that contradict revealed preferences.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 3.19080089572381, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.789765142409156, "textFts": "'academ':65 'bewar':71 'buy':34,42 'complet':70 'contradict':77 'daili':55 'distract':51 'dream':49 'enough':26 'expect':15 'fantasi':47 'grind':56 'high':75 'isn':57 'lotteri':4,35 'mathemat':21 'model':67 'moment':45 'negat':14 'particip':9 'poor':20 'prefer':79 'prescript':72 'ration':7 'reason':22 'reveal':78 'say':24 'someon':32 'someth':61 'talk':30 'tax':18 'tell':39 'ticket':36 'told':3 'true':25 'valu':16 'worth':60", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647140399451, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 9.416560280078572, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aea794a88e9c", "prob": 0.020384233210964033, "text": "More math tax please.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.15122310344988413, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.2674078494449255, "textFts": "'math':2 'pleas':4 'tax':3", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647163705851, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.796", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0483319937067217, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2f0c3c4b011", "prob": 0.09817234155625208, "text": "Lotteries are negative EV if you think utility follows log(money) ; but what if you place positive utility on variance? ", "index": 6, "poolNo": 4.25707926387334, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.10624686636938, "textFts": "'ev':4 'follow':9 'log':10 'lotteri':1 'money':11 'negat':3 'place':16 'posit':17 'think':7 'util':8,18 'varianc':20", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647188682540, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.801", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 12.902650604535987, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3b70546e4e0a", "prob": 0.019229765666518635, "text": "Another day, another ticket.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.1384783277104686, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.062770512860493, "textFts": "'anoth':1,3 'day':2 'ticket':4", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647257451118, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, 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"Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647346459391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7871292996042576, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "76525d71e5ed", "prob": 0.013419087693738084, "text": "Es ist Mittwoch, meine Kerle.", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.14308696305503527, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.519855728779799, "textFts": "'es':1 'ist':2 'kerl':5 'mein':4 'mittwoch':3", "contractId": "Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy", "createdTime": 1647438914543, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.796", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 1.2268880177131962, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "caf8b2a3cd57", "prob": 0.03667564467533795, "text": "Вже четвер, мої друзі.", "index": 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1647788043000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6037179088679632, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647484756579 | {"00f9021747b7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.007941044288028389 | 6YWcbdydEHOhixMpn8Qp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.007941044288028389 | before-or-at-april-5th-2022-a-reput | 14852.317726686746 | {"NO": 9888.168377545597, "YES": 247.57508216334895} | Before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source will confirm that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away | 1649269470543 | sSyPVMPXuQSSCenwDUp5OmmZVDW2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9920, "YES": 233} | 0 | 4.620041183899864 | True | play | NO | public | 1647129087242 | blank | This market resolves to "YES" if, before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source confirms that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away.
It will resolve to "NO" if this is not confirmed. Note: this includes the situation where the Queen has, in fact, passed away, but the news is not confirmed at or before April 5th.
Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-06 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 10095.420047837228, "YES": 903.2219053182725} | {"creatorFee": 9.860896308737397, "platformFee": 2.465224077184349, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1649269470543 | 100 | abk | 1647129087242 | 0 | 61 | 1715657605315 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471010}] | ["politics-default"] | 1648206783293 | 0.007941044288028389 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7758832458044026 | h3dGYJdCp5XXiaPhu3Nl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7758832458044026 | will-i-learn-about-an-unlimited-ver | 430.98259226652874 | {"NO": 124, "YES": 273.01740773347126} | Will I learn about an unlimited version of Semantle within the next week? | 1647759540000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 124, "YES": 275} | 0 | 4.733596946524482 | True | play | YES | public | 1647131913065 | Conflux | The official website for the game Semantle (semantle.novalis.org) limits you to one per day. However, the code is open source, so in theory it’d be pretty easy to make an unlimited version!
This market resolves to YES if I hear about an unlimited version (maybe made by one of you!) within the next week. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Mar 12, 4:39pm: I’ve been asking around everywhere I know to see if anyone knows of one. I make puzzles on the internet and am part of various puzzle communities.
Mar 12, 5:48pm: Just found out about Pimantle (semantle.pimantle.es) which has more semantles, from searching around on r/Semantle! It doesn't have *unlimited* Semantle, though, so it doesn't count for this market.
Mar 20, 7:15am: The download is a little annoying, but this is an unlimited version of Semantle! Thank you so much, I'm so happy this market actually achieved its goal. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 187.9523695520968, "YES": 349.7106273177481} | {"creatorFee": 4.880696309338848, "platformFee": 1.220174077334712, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647786308109 | 100 | Conflux | 1647131913065 | 0 | 7 | 1715658539154 | 0 | 1 | 1647725244644 | 0.7758832458044026 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7081074347332105 | mHT1NKtm4ZgMpBr9Qy48 | {"NO": 90.1415187420649, "YES": 104.96637693702039} | 0 | will-js-and-lr-stop-biting-their-fi | 1857.9133953070393 | {"NO": 253.3240519060996, "YES": 1175} | Will JS and LR stop biting their fingernails by April 18? | 1650351540000 | RvlSrOeFijfIJgYfQpSZVzTw61W2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 335, "YES": 1175} | 0 | 3.3467045152258112 | True | play | NO | public | 1647132899475 | lippy | It's about time. We're grown adults for christ's sake. JB (third-party) will resolve this based on pictures and his own judgment. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 771.5958164104201, "YES": 1201.9785147832301} | {"creatorFee": 3.189520927653571, "platformFee": 0.780568700423581, "liquidityFee": 0.2017383778777411} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1650472326447 | 100.20173837787775 | lippy | 1647132899475 | 0 | 19 | 1650314746023 | 0 | 1 | 1647843019469 | 0.6756716501560847 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2536580031754498 | rqv0uSft6GWG2EbhehQl | {"NO": 84.37556453485922, "YES": 165.98896997465454} | 0.14731205093796573 | will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo | 700.8022794398462 | {"NO": 149.74338430341047, "YES": 69.62164194830375} | Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election) | 1663277478122 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 70} | 0 | 3.7134891776000947 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647156964335 | Account deletion requested | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question will be not resolved and there are three weeks with a new president", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved and Dwayne Johnson in theory may still win election (even as write-in candidate or due to unfaithful electors or similar silliness)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved as YES despite that a different candidate won", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved as NO despite this candidate won", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved as NA", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question gets its resolve criteria redefined", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved as NO and a different candidate won", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved as YES and this candidate won", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 189.51147752136708, "YES": 110.48462952436476} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1663277478122 | 100.08726054662704 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277486432 | 0 | 16 | 1650314781649 | 0 | 17 | 1663171610214 | 1663277485098 | 0.14731205093796576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.652776620379051 | lAjy2cswmj5KgzyRkylK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.652776620379051 | will-global-average-temperatures-in | 120 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | Will global average temperatures in 2050 increase by at least 2.0°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900? | 1647243855575 | my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | 0 | 4.962203626998809 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647157840174 | Tasties | The 2021-2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 study estimated 2.4°C (SSP5-8.5) as highly unlikely, 2.1°C (SSP3-7.0) as unlikely, and 2.0°C (SSP2-4.5) as likely.
Mar 13, 1:10am: Relevant studies are here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04423-8
Mar 14, 12:44am: Resolving as N/A and will try to recreate a new market based on free response RCP scenarios. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647243855575 | 100 | Tasties | 1647157840174 | 0 | 2 | 1715658615316 | 0 | 1647159341214 | 0.652776620379051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.652776620379051 | 7FWIrt31RYMdQNEaGnB5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.652776620379051 | will-global-average-temperatures-in-f1b53df32489 | 162 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | Will global average temperatures in 2100 increase by at least 2.7°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900? | 1647243825539 | my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 70} | 0 | 4.962203626998809 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647158147602 | Tasties | The 2021-2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 study estimated 4.4°C (SSP5-8.5) as highly unlikely, 3.6°C (SSP3-7.0) as unlikely, and 2.7°C (SSP2-4.5) as likely.
Mar 13, 1:00am: Relevant studies are here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04423-8
Mar 13, 1:00am: I am also unsure about how to resolve this market as well since it is so far out into the future and the payouts may not be very high. I was originally thinking of just resolving it when the global average temperature is recorded by various weather agencies at the end of the resolution year as either yes or no but I am open to any suggestions that could make this market more reasonable.
Mar 14, 12:38am: Resolving as N/A and will try to recreate a new market based on free response RCP scenarios. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647243825539 | 100 | Tasties | 1647158147602 | 0 | 2 | 1715657623752 | 0 | 1647159251347 | 0.652776620379051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8631164742370916 | oyPZjXD5sDjR6bbEZ9XL | {"NO": 129.96855754543512, "YES": 96.34771220804936} | 1 | in-july-2022-will-there-be-airplane | 275 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 152} | In July 2022, will there be airplane tickets available to general public for less than $1000 from Moscow to any other country (except Belarus)? | 1656998182519 | Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 152} | 0 | 5.86209414146779 | True | play | YES | public | 1647191869494 | Jeremy Moonders | In July 2022, will there be airplane tickets available to general public for less than $1000 from Moscow to any other country (except Belarus)?
The market resolves Yes if at least 1 such ticket is available, and the plane lands successfully in the destination airport in July 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.86241493981062, "YES": 190.44764109985712} | {"creatorFee": 0.18865472738924133, "platformFee": 0.03144245456487356, "liquidityFee": 0.18865472738924133} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1656998182519 | 100.18865472738923 | JeremyMoonders | 1652414871716 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c | 9 | 1650314761677 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505060}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575575}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 1652414871565 | 1647296045836 | 0.8948010576632002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6906239687542969 | 7F02qQCHMnlG6nhafQ3c | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6906239687542969 | haas-will-finish-ahead-of-williams | 200 | {"NO": 82.5, "YES": 117.5} | Haas will finish ahead of Williams in Bahrain | 1647752340000 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 82.5, "YES": 117.5} | 0 | 4.8377641951088215 | True | play | YES | public | 1647202613917 | Dustin | Resolves to YES if either Haas car finishes ahead of both Williams cars. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 111.24371892628366, "YES": 166.20840833258106} | {"creatorFee": 3.2999999999999994, "platformFee": 0.8249999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1647814719705 | 100 | Dustin | 1647202613917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 1 | 1715657622288 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396946}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.6906239687542969 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2665294515457959 | Sc1Q1wrl62iEgPIUrHfD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2665294515457959 | mclaren-will-finish-ahead-of-ferrar | 110 | {"NO": 77.5, "YES": 32.5} | McLaren will finish ahead of Ferrari in Bahrain | 1647752340000 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 77.5, "YES": 32.5} | 0 | 4.988396119230901 | True | play | NO | public | 1647202957028 | Dustin | Resolves to YES if either McLaren car finishes ahead of both Ferrari cars. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.20804106099436, "YES": 56.78965575217022} | {"creatorFee": 1.3, "platformFee": 0.325, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1647814686727 | 100 | Dustin | 1647202957028 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 2 | 1715658193379 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402680}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.2665294515457959 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6167577467240093 | unCEusomhQxd2v1yA1Bi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6167577467240093 | will-a-manifold-markets-dev-do-anot | 703 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 608} | Will a Manifold Markets dev do another coding livestream by Mar 23? | 1647519253575 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 608} | 0 | 4.683781564029401 | True | play | YES | public | 1647207186093 | Gurkenglas | @Austin did this just now on the Discord and let's hope it happens again! And mana is the unit of hope.
Mar 16, 2:53pm: Argh, it was at 3:15 am for me! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 107.0989729199118, "YES": 694.7950892173174} | {"creatorFee": 3.8000000000000043, "platformFee": 0.9500000000000011, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647519253575 | 100 | Gurkenglas | 1647207186093 | 0 | 7 | 1715658837640 | 0 | 1647493908232 | 0.6167577467240093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9376902845564921 | gTS8fyFtEHykFfQRHriM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9376902845564921 | will-cherson-be-under-the-control-o | 2764.965520769387 | {"NO": 180.80700623567824, "YES": 1534.4558218250602} | Will Cherson be under the control of Russian forces as of March 31, 2022? | 1648699140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 182.1, "YES": 1535.9} | 0 | 4.6438455151263245 | True | play | YES | public | 1647210659816 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if Cherson remains under control of Russian forces. If it is contested or if the Russians withdraw from the city, this market resolves to No.
Mar 13, 6:54pm: I mean the Cherson in Ukraine, captured by the Russians in early March.
Mar 13, 6:58pm: "What if it is under the control of some "People's Republic"?" Then it will resolve as Yes if it is a Russian-supported one.
Close date updated to 2022-03-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 428.16268297071923, "YES": 1660.9655977066152} | {"creatorFee": 7.2931339532050155, "platformFee": 1.8232834883012539, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1648740568679 | 100 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647210659816 | 0 | 18 | 1715658523179 | 0 | 1 | 1648523081499 | 0.9376902845564921 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7170356436405454 | MKboykub4ciTzQp8u94Z | {"NO": 209.33838724520945, "YES": 196.1999037105228} | 0.7299999999999994 | will-tesla-commercialize-a-cobaltfr | 167.79129658991016 | {"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 70} | Will Tesla Commercialize a Cobalt-free Nickel Cathode? | 1893567540000 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 70} | 1.539095918623324e-15 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1647214144962 | Jasper Woodard | This market resolves yes upon commercialization of a Tesla vehicle with a cobalt-free nickel cathode (excludes LFP technology).
Mar 13, 5:29pm: Alternatively resolves no on January 1st, 2030. | BINARY | {"day": -6.661338147750939e-16, "week": -6.661338147750939e-16, "month": -6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 54.77280347307411, "YES": 83.6668393134341} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 200 | JasperWoodard | 1710451917144 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c | 7 | 1650314549833 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.09168332430592861 | 1704921969589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4 | who-will-win-the-west-region-of-the | 428 | Who will win the West region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament? | 1648349982552 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.824523225244017 | True | play | 38a79a0834ff | public | 1647217564033 | CompmanJX3 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9258498148299106, "platformFee": 0.7314624537074776, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648349982552 | 440 | CompmanJX3 | 1647217564033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4de3f62f86f6", "prob": 0.00872246153046169, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.09818433598229419, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.158309675416021, "textFts": "", "contractId": "n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4", "createdTime": 1647217564257, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.427", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648349982000, "totalLiquidity": 1.0466953836554027, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "715e0db907e0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Gonzaga", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00016000800060005002, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.5999199979999, "textFts": "'gonzaga':1", "contractId": "n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4", "createdTime": 1647217594494, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.427", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648349982000, "totalLiquidity": 0.016, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "38a79a0834ff", "prob": 0.9543571050270103, "text": "Duke 25", "index": 2, "poolNo": 49.87077263440459, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3851097514588666, "textFts": "'25':2 'duke':1", "contractId": "n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4", "createdTime": 1647217608524, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.852", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648349982000, "totalLiquidity": 10.906294793517475, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e517df59dcd8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Texas Tech", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'tech':2 'texa':1", "contractId": "n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4", "createdTime": 1647217630966, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.854", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648349982000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "04776fb38e88", "prob": 0.03672043344252788, "text": "Arkansas", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.720666748280964, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.13789637227765, "textFts": "'arkansa':1", "contractId": "n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4", "createdTime": 1648171457456, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:11.854", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648349982000, "totalLiquidity": 8.812904026206692, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"38a79a0834ff": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac | who-will-win-the-east-region-of-the | 1002.4095690211101 | Who will win the East region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament? | 1648428344095 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.679328037863149 | True | play | 67cd83dbec5f | public | 1647218136222 | CompmanJX3 | The winner of the East region of this year's tournament | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3386599394127314, "platformFee": 0.8346649848531829, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648428344095 | 640 | CompmanJX3 | 1647218136222 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c3aa9566802a", "prob": 0.00017613357487890699, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00021039915168280198, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.1943327299902358, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647218136367, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.024", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.015852021739101628, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be2e29395e0a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Purdue", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00021001050078756564, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.099894997374869, "textFts": "'purdu':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647218160809, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.028", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.021, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5cd3b309373", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "UCLA", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00017000850063755314, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.6999149978748938, "textFts": "'ucla':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647218171499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.024", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7f805448c6d7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Baylor", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00017000850063755314, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.6999149978748938, "textFts": "'baylor':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647218186409, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.024", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "df716a8a7891", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kentucky", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00017000850063755314, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.6999149978748938, "textFts": "'kentucki':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647218225985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.029", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "554a83eb77da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Texas", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'texa':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647575282321, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.029", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "67cd83dbec5f", "prob": 0.9845287139563854, "text": "UNC", "index": 6, "poolNo": 20.34589660853029, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.31972372342440847, "textFts": "'unc':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1647575470694, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.024", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5505030523579753, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8ca3717c48d0", "prob": 0.014795152468735666, "text": "Saint Peter's", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.38074586221506923, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.353754881838857, "textFts": "'peter':2 'saint':1", "contractId": "wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac", "createdTime": 1648201060620, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.028", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648428344000, "totalLiquidity": 3.10698201843449, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1647712462183 | {"67cd83dbec5f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05094640103822926 | Cvn3dB5NTsAtZ47LFfwL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05094640103822926 | will-china-send-weapons-to-russia-f | 1553.3601437750597 | {"NO": 1156, "YES": 126.63985622494033} | Will China send weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war? | 1649912340000 | WE5DNftrk8fnnNqslKOGeSl5Ut03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1156, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.653347354820402 | True | play | NO | public | 1647220740399 | jw | This market resolves to "NO" if there is very little evidence that China has provided weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, and resolves to "YES" if there is clear evidence that this has happened before April 13.
Clear evidence could include statements by the Chinese or Russian governments, or visual evidence of such weapons appearing in Ukraine. Statements by US intelligence agencies that this has happened will probably not, on their own, constitute sufficient evidence for a "YES", but might be a enough to resolve to an intermediate value (is that a thing?)
(Prompted by this Financial Times article: https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7)
Mar 14, 11:09am: "Are we counting YES if they sell them weapons?" Yes. This question is not about whether China receives anything of value in return
Mar 14, 5:16pm: Non-lethal aid doesn't count toward YES. Providing MREs (food) or logistics vehicles (with no direct combat capacity) isn't enough. Ammo would count for YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1249.540795437267, "YES": 289.50883681754914} | {"creatorFee": 5.065594248997614, "platformFee": 1.2663985622494034, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1649945212338 | 100 | jw | 1647220740399 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_gSzZUHAb6Gd0L7U6tsmyw54TJeSIuzhNwZRCKw=s96-c | 21 | 1715657774742 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560023}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227215}] | ["china", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1647281210931 | False | 0.05094640103822926 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22440727265136984 | dpUwuBlb6zW6OiLeGG2A | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.22440727265136984 | will-i-finish-my-pending-work-task | 131 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 56} | Will I finish my pending work task today? | 1647248340000 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 56} | 0 | 4.937367224021218 | True | play | YES | public | 1647221127687 | Anna | This is a task that I expect may take 1-3 hours, which I've been meaning to do for weeks and not finding time to finish. I told a coworker I'd do it this week and really want to finish it today. I'm also trying to get some other stuff done this evening, but it's mostly lower priority. I'm also having some technical issues with my work computer. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 115.36962338544753, "YES": 62.057328341622956} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138} | 0 | 1647248497139 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1647221127687 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 7 | 1715658473162 | 0 | 1647246397603 | 0.22440727265136984 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8973202696882493 | dT51s2ktlkhpTchGWM5d | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8973202696882493 | will-someone-give-100-to-charity-in | 5472.6200922854805 | {"NO": 702, "YES": 4565.3799077145195} | Will someone give $100 to charity in honor of this market? | 1647367606153 | FX8JTczvl7NejJmqB4DVO5NgR1X2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 702, "YES": 4596} | 0 | 4.6245672383350644 | True | play | YES | public | 1647225056655 | Bayesian Philosopher | This market resolves YES if someone donates $100 (USD) in real money (or the equivalent in any other real world currency) that they might have not otherwise given, to a charity of their choice, and then says in the comments that they have done so. Proof would be (highly) appreciated, but is not required. Saying the name of the charity is encouraged, but also not required. I will trust you not to lie, just as you trust market creators to resolve their markets fairly.
Mar 13, 10:30pm: The low initial probability is for incentive, not a prediction. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1687.86257985476, "YES": 4989.631403067912} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1647367606153 | 100 | BayesianPhilosopher | 1647225056655 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwhr0P01elPDQx93GRYMErBtr8HdMixiP1N8p1v=s96-c | 13 | 1715658467197 | 0 | 1647339696788 | 0.8973202696882493 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010000000000000002 | Q9ebkTiLbYAHFLeTwW5f | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010000000000000002 | what-percent-increase-in-traffic-ac | 41 | {"NO": 39.8, "YES": 1.2} | What percent increase in traffic accidents will Madge find due to DST? | 1647274500673 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 39.8, "YES": 1.2} | 0 | 5.405752894692882 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647225925168 | Daniel Reeves | This is in a particular jurisdiction in Australia where daylight savings time was tried for 3 years. So it should be a pretty good natural experiment. Idea is to get car crash data for the 2 weeks after the spring forward / fall back date, comparing 3 years when DST happened vs 3 years when it didn't.
Mar 13, 7:45pm: Oops, Madge can't do this after all. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 40.44848082425346, "YES": 6.70838281629783} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1647274500673 | 100 | dreev | 1647225925168 | 0 | 3 | 1715658135094 | 0 | [{"name": "Timekeeping", "slug": "timekeeping", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "lzFlyshFYiEU1Q7Cj1Jj", "createdTime": 1673373805724}] | ["timekeeping"] | 0.010000000000000002 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0634172043368388 | BFpKG4xXkeFFxVpIMv6B | {"NO": 118.86049714280784, "YES": 147.9071052784202} | 0 | will-the-russian-ruble-rub-fall-bel-5d81e343d186 | 195.73471789456292 | {"NO": 85.657307904589, "YES": 12.3} | Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.001 by December 31, 2022? | 1672559940000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85.7, "YES": 12.3} | 0 | 8.755881969204905 | True | play | NO | public | 1647226327750 | Oleg S | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00100 at any time between March 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and “No” otherwise.
The official resolution source will be https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1D | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 94.77418965078812, "YES": 24.77262730448089} | {"creatorFee": 0.2616619392655873, "platformFee": 0.043610323210931216, "liquidityFee": 0.2616619392655873} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1672567708917 | 120.2616619392656 | OlegStroganov | 1672380730455 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 13 | 1650313839097 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566213}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227248}] | ["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1672380729240 | False | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26632310390945685 | olIhYPIXNQShoHvspyEL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.26632310390945685 | will-i-reach-level-1-on-every-lesso | 95 | {"NO": 55.032252125248206, "YES": 38} | Will I reach level 1 on every lesson of the Duolingo Ukrainian course in March? | 1648789439004 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 38} | 0 | 5.043370236550943 | True | play | YES | public | 1647240408639 | Anna | I started the course on March 1st and currently have reached level 1 for 28 of 51 units, but my progress slows down over time because occasionally I go back to the beginning and do a review of everything I've learned so far, and every time I do that there's more to review and it does longer. (Also, now that I need to type in Ukrainian, that slows me down compared to just clicking the words because I'm not very familiar with the keyboard layout.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 79.68757745282511, "YES": 48.01120703231694} | {"creatorFee": 2.201290085009928, "platformFee": 0.550322521252482, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1648789439004 | 100 | tcheasdfjkl | 1647240408639 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 4 | 1715658687504 | 0 | 1648153014271 | 0.26632310390945685 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4vgfRTHbKacwbIP6KPOz | what-should-i-name-my-cat | 824.2995420907957 | What should I name my cat? | 1672549140000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.700106453348402 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647280236788 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My partner and I are getting a cat soon, and we need help picking a name! She's a feisty stray, less than a year old, scooped up off the street by a friend of a friend. I will choose the answer based on whichever is ranked highest, on average, after both my partner and I independently rank all the names suggested in this market. The market resolves when we receive and name the cat, which will probably be within the next few months. I've seeded the market with my partner's current top five choices (generated via ten minutes of brainstorming) to give you an idea of what she's into. Personally, I'm partial to \"Momo,\" \"Dimsum,\" and \"Costco,\" but I'm making this market because I think we can do better. Go wild!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Mar 14, 1:50pm: For reference, here's a tweet with a picture and a video of the cat in the replies: https://twitter.com/cosmojg/status/1503429901856165892 You might also want to stalk my Twitter profile to get an idea of what I'm into. 👀", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Mar 14, 11:38pm: If her name ends up being, for example, \"Subskitty\" or \"Subskiddie\" instead of \"Subskitdy,\" the question will still resolve to \"Subskitdy.\" The same general rule applies to all other answers. When two or more answers are phonetically identical (or near-identical), the answer submitted first will take precedence.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "May 12, 11:02pm: KITTY INCOMING!!! We'll be acquiring the cat on or before May 15th. Expect resolution soon.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "May 29, 1:07pm: Long story short, the foster mom decided to keep the kitty. 😿 We're probably going to adopt from a shelter in the not-too-distant future, since we've already invested quite a bit in preparing for a cat.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jun 30, 5:58pm: As a backup, if we don't get a cat by the close date, we'll immediately* execute the decision process described above and simply save the name for when we eventually do get a cat. (Not to fear, we are definitely still actively looking for a cat in the meantime. Feel free to DM me on Twitter if you know anyone looking to get rid of a cat within 100 miles of Boston.) *ASAP", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jan 4, 11:47pm: Sorry I've been busy! I've got some bad news: our landlord changed his policy on cats after one of our neighbors moved out. Apparent their cat destroyed the place, and now no one in the entire apartment complex is allowed to get a cat. Everyone who already has one got grandfathered in. I guess that's what we get for dragging our feet.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "My partner and I will be moving forward with the contingency plan laid out above. Keep an eye on your notifications!", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11953247091233266, "platformFee": 0.029883117728083164, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679355090600 | 1579.9999999999993 | cos | 1679355022309 | 0 | 26 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fa7f896610ff", "prob": 0.03152791263332596, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.315056480769314, "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.677881663708087, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4vgfRTHbKacwbIP6KPOz", "createdTime": 1647280237115, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:20:38.977", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1679355090000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7461613150765147, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d9fa41dd6f5e", "prob": 0.21475639619035283, "text": "Momo", "index": 1, "poolNo": 33.18998139972229, "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 121.35713332418013, "textFts": 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0.4101567308077996 | eA3yD1uVD5ZJdWnA9RzZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-us-experience-a-recession | 2457.148066104159 | {"NO": 1073.2353832709903, "YES": 959.9706135232534} | Will the US experience a recession in 2022? | 1648749540000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1101, "YES": 966} | 0 | 2.865094758945098 | True | play | NO | public | 1647280833094 | Rahul Sridhar | This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1561.5284800070071, "YES": 1302.1365127896818} | {"creatorFee": 1.1325037321417812, "platformFee": 0.2831259330354453, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1680903545337 | 100 | fortenforge | 1680903537920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 36 | 1650314687683 | 0 | 1 | 37 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572695}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072198}] | ["economics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1680903535341 | 0.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1886345367315455 | LyxiYS6NEvBOnZqGQ7r4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1886345367315455 | will-good-judgment-write-a-hit-piec | 418.72621901939544 | {"NO": 245.27378098060456, "YES": 140} | Will Good Judgment write a hit piece against Samotsvety or Arb in the next three months? | 1647921540000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 251, "YES": 140} | 0 | 4.736992339126219 | True | play | YES | public | 1647288312230 | Nuño Sempere | After https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022, and in addition, after the high praise these pieces received from Scott Alexander https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422?s=r , we are thinking that GJ might want to write a public negative statement about us. Will they do so? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 347.03944568154327, "YES": 167.33284196684164} | {"creatorFee": 10.015700274202887, "platformFee": 2.5039250685507217, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1648298794553 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1647288312230 | 0 | 7 | 1715657998202 | 0 | 1 | 1647353041804 | 0.1886345367315455 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv | what-will-the-fee-structure-of-mani | 1642.389188484885 | What will the fee structure of Manifold's CFMM be in a week? | 1647838740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.704607897781993 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647291869283 | SG | Assuming we launch our new fixed-payout constant-function market maker for binary markets this week, what will the fee structure look like a week afterward?
We probably want to charge 3 different fees: a liquidity fee (which will go into the liquidity pool to subsidize trading), a commission for the market creator (to incentivize market creation), and a platform fee (which will be burned, to prevent inflation).
Since the new market maker offers fixed payouts, it would probably be nice to have the fees deducted upfront so that you know exactly how much profit you'll be making if you are correct.
Feel free to influence this market by suggesting different mechanism / fee amounts.
Mar 21, 11:57am: This one is difficult one to resolve properly. I wrote a comment on my original post saying I would resolve to that answer if I kept the current fee structure (which in retrospect, I shouldn't have done), but Gurkgenglas later created a separate answer with that fee structure, which most of the market seems to have bet on. I think resolving this 50-50 is the fairest thing to do. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.744432460604601, "platformFee": 1.4361081151511503, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647882247786 | 520.0000000000001 | SG | 1647291869283 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f5ba40e4a4cf", "prob": 0.035119696932525805, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4913498693292815, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.499370787323707, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647291869603, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5754444417185596, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "64cae34c8512", "prob": 0.13066283243746224, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trade profit: (1-p) * bet * (4% liquidity fee + 4% creator fee + 1% platform fee), for a YES bet with a post-trade probability of p", "index": 1, "poolNo": 7.767308515970073, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.67812344868336, "textFts": "'1':8,17 '4':11,14 'bet':10,23 'creator':15 'deduct':2 'fee':1,13,16,19 'liquid':12 'p':9,31 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'platform':18 'post':27 'post-trad':26 'probabl':29 'profit':7 'trade':6,28 'yes':22", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647291896211, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 20.034967640410876, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7b6f5bd43f61", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trader profit: custom % liquidity fee + 1% platform fee of (total money gained - total money lost).", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'1':11 'custom':8 'deduct':2 'fee':1,10,13 'gain':17 'liquid':9 'lost':20 'money':16,19 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'platform':12 'profit':7 'total':15,18 'trader':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647296047893, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4434b0b7220f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trader profit: 1% platform fee + custom% creator fee + custom% liquidity fee", "index": 3, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'1':8 'creator':12 'custom':11,14 'deduct':2 'fee':1,10,13,16 'liquid':15 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'platform':9 'profit':7 'trader':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647296174183, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.322", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "39f9a20d44ad", "prob": 0.022476606036816515, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trader profit: custom% liquidity fee + 4% creator fee + 1% platform fee", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.24993895313963072, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.870020738738784, "textFts": "'1':14 '4':11 'creator':12 'custom':8 'deduct':2 'fee':1,10,13,16 'liquid':9 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'platform':15 'profit':7 'trader':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647296251639, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.317", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 1.648284442699878, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bd191d81a863", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trade profit: (1-p) * bet * (4% liquidity fee + 5% creator fee + 1% platform fee), for a YES bet with a post-trade probability of p", "index": 5, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'1':8,17 '4':11 '5':14 'bet':10,23 'creator':15 'deduct':2 'fee':1,13,16,19 'liquid':12 'p':9,31 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'platform':18 'post':27 'post-trad':26 'probabl':29 'profit':7 'trade':6,28 'yes':22", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647323521028, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.315", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4f584d977160", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "(1-p)*(2% platform fee + 8% liquidity fee + 8% creator fee)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'1':1 '2':3 '8':6,9 'creator':10 'fee':5,8,11 'liquid':7 'p':2 'platform':4", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647410639468, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.316", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c14a68661682", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Swapping for the YES share at p% gives you x=(1-p)*fee% of a YES-fee-token and 1-x of a M$1-if-YES token. The fee-token is worthless except that 1 YES-fee-token and 1 NO-fee-token combine into M$1.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'1':11,21,26,39,45,53 'combin':50 'except':37 'fee':13,18,33,42,48 'fee-token':32 'give':8 'if-y':27 'm':25,52 'no-fee-token':46 'p':7,12 'share':5 'swap':1 'token':19,30,34,43,49 'worthless':36 'x':10,22 'yes':4,17,29,41 'yes-fee-token':16,40", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647449140116, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.322", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef66acc2e99c", "prob": 0.03594269890371892, "text": "No fees at all. Inflation is fine. Don't pay market creators by default.", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.5089393481648888, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.650802788289697, "textFts": "'creator':12 'default':14 'fee':2 'fine':7 'inflat':5 'market':11 'pay':10", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647598150303, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.322", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6357979196060546, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "abfbab0baef1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Fees deducted from per-trade ", "index": 9, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'deduct':2 'fee':1 'per':5 'per-trad':4 'trade':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647618871242, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.317", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c3de4d0e86d1", "prob": 0.7714536276631039, "text": "Fees per buy: post-trade-improbability-of-payout * amount * (6% liquidity fee + 6% creator fee + 1% platform fee)", "index": 10, "poolNo": 64.21507714638065, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.02398589477931, "textFts": "'1':17 '6':11,14 'amount':10 'buy':3 'creator':15 'fee':1,13,16,19 'improb':7 'liquid':12 'payout':9 'per':2 'platform':18 'post':5 'post-trade-improbability-of-payout':4 'trade':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647619190329, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.315", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 34.951777091657455, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5d24c26a0220", "prob": 0.0037445380263727455, "text": "Fees per buy: post-trade-improbability-of-payout * amount * (6% liquidity fee + 3% creator fee + 1% platform fee)\n\n(this has nice sum of 10% of fees)", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.016835012232891283, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.4790499579082725, "textFts": "'1':17 '10':25 '3':14 '6':11 'amount':10 'buy':3 'creator':15 'fee':1,13,16,19,27 'improb':7 'liquid':12 'nice':22 'payout':9 'per':2 'platform':18 'post':5 'post-trade-improbability-of-payout':4 'sum':23 'trade':6", "contractId": "hEsxgbp2N0XAAc7XU8rv", "createdTime": 1647820046450, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.316", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647882247000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2745994552673347, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647619203945 | {"64cae34c8512": 50, "c3de4d0e86d1": 50} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.020888769446270467 | jrICxvgMBljaDCdLW8T3 | {"NO": 95.84250480257381, "YES": 895.424900471988} | 0 | will-kyiv-fall-to-russian-forces-by-c1a307db6c8b | 1277.3493897126023 | {"NO": 284.3783001821325, "YES": 24.812329476875163} | Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by May 2022, conditional on it not falling by April, 2022? | 1651204740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 286, "YES": 20} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1647295172137 | Jenny | This market resolves N/A if https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-to-russian-forces-by resolves YES.
Otherwise it resolves YES if Kyiv falls by May 1, 2022 and NO otherwise (using similar criteria to the Metaculus question).
This market is a response to https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422 and its comments.
If "Russia will take control of Kyiv" is like "this iodine-131 nucleus will decay", then this conditional market should stay roughly constant until April. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 305.94022921314695, "YES": 44.721806763591296} | {"creatorFee": 0.27534893112802117, "platformFee": 0.05129715458089537, "liquidityFee": 0.21048093841331914} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1662828717828 | 100.21048093841331 | Jenny | 1662832876414 | 0 | 14 | 1650314729957 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779960673}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1662832870407 | 0.0022783435493668684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11742581336884725 | cmJtnagmrLEnnvbK5KsF | {"NO": 139.83310821365575, "YES": 9.086079132625539} | 1 | will-there-be-enough-eag-london-aft | 297 | {"NO": 194, "YES": 63} | Will there be enough EAG London afterparties? | 1650478426348 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 194, "YES": 63} | 0 | 7.392708301133868 | True | play | YES | public | 1647303531751 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 242.29813866474504, "YES": 85.6803711511569} | {"creatorFee": 1.00135071806553, "platformFee": 0.16689178634425503, "liquidityFee": 1.00135071806553} | {"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834} | 0 | 1650478426348 | 101.00135071806554 | NathanpmYoung | 1647303531751 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 7 | 1650314674557 | 0 | 1650204309310 | 0.6718733205225721 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9852492055652193 | OjTShVuBvRlJknDaVSKI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9852492055652193 | will-aleksandar-vucic-win-the-2022 | 143 | {"NO": 2.1, "YES": 136.9} | Will Aleksandar Vučić win the 2022 Serbian presidential election? | 1648958340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2.1, "YES": 136.9} | 0 | 4.921443048700164 | True | play | YES | public | 1647310805012 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if Aleksandar Vučić wins the 2022 Serbian presidential election. It resolves to "no" if he loses.
Close date updated to 2022-04-02 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.88206740923635, "YES": 137.97200368549412} | {"creatorFee": 0.0840000000000002, "platformFee": 0.02100000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1649020754572 | 100 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647310805012 | 0 | 3 | 1715658086577 | 0 | 1 | 0.9852492055652193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07295005128255641 | gF5MTLynlXoc7bLE0uTi | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07295005128255641 | dont-bet-just-testing-if-you-bet-i | 521.0028090509363 | {"NO": 163.99719094906365, "YES": 5} | Don't bet. Just testing. If you bet, I pull rug. | 1647315481462 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 105, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.920432524326845 | True | play | NO | public | 1647311820713 | Undox | Just wanting to learn a bit amount market maths | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 134.35106996410562, "YES": 37.68793681611265} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647315481462 | 100 | Undox | 1647311820713 | 0 | 2 | 1715658515173 | 0 | 1647315631288 | 0.07295005128255641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fgnPli7CXWqgn2iim90H | who-is-the-identity-of-the-silver-c | 150 | Who is the identity of the Silver Controller in Filters? | 1648450740000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | 411bb4dc86cb | public | 1647320661450 | Jacob | At the end of Filters chapter 21, a mystery controller addresses Andrew by name and reveals his face; Andrew knows the name that goes with it. Who is it?
https://www.royalroad.com/fiction/46032/filters/chapter/862362/21-cloud-generator
This will resolve when Filters chapter 22 is published, or a later chapter if jakefs swerves and cuts away from the scene until a later chapter. If we are told a name and Andrew believes it, that counts, no waiting to see if he's deceived or whatever. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648578499798 | 240 | JiSK | 1647320661450 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bc3c418425c2", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 95.40556703999101, "userId": "hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 119.25695879998878, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fgnPli7CXWqgn2iim90H", "createdTime": 1647320661604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:31.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648578499000, "totalLiquidity": 106.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "411bb4dc86cb", "prob": 0.5555555555555556, "text": "John Canton", "index": 1, "poolNo": 119.25695879998878, "userId": "hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.40556703999101, "textFts": "'canton':2 'john':1", "contractId": "fgnPli7CXWqgn2iim90H", "createdTime": 1647320705180, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.939", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648578499000, "totalLiquidity": 106.66666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"411bb4dc86cb": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | yQCGW9IqHutoAwQMkUAE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | when-will-appveyorcom-stop-showing | 14.000000000000004 | {"NO": 4.999999999999998, "YES": 4.999999999999998} | When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in? | 1647379290690 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647322179175 | Undox | The service shows the Ukrainian colours in the header when you are logged in. Will they stop? When?
If 2022, then resolves to PROB based on the month
March 2022 = 0, April 2022 = 10, etc.
Jan 2023 = Resolves YES
This is what I call an "expander market". This means it starts with just 10M to gauge interest. Ask me and I will add liquidity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647379290690 | 100 | Undox | 1647322179175 | 0 | 2 | 1715658949669 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513186}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647379216209 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14999999999999997 | zjKxA56DGtYtSaHWBpkp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.14999999999999997 | will-i-use-bitcoin-to-buy-something | 10 | {"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5} | Will I use Bitcoin to buy something IRL in March 2022 | 1647379275872 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647323088240 | Undox | I have a Bitcoin app with a small amount of money on it as an experiment. I want to see if I can buy a coffee or lunch or something. Rules are I will keep an eye out for Bitcoin payment, but I won't make a special trip or search online. I live in a suburban area outside of a big city. Places that I have seen online tend to be in the city itself, so that reduces the odds.
This is what I call an "expander market". This means it starts with just 10M to gauge interest. Ask me and I will add liquidity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 9.220466411738617, "YES": 3.8733706445420375} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1647379275872 | 100 | Undox | 1647323088240 | 0 | 1 | 1715658976725 | 0 | 0.14999999999999997 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9143968481292368 | XTM3zdswE9tMSL8g2JDk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9143968481292368 | will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili | 3091.678039849257 | {"NO": 655.2675612309508, "YES": 2129.054398919792} | Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 100 readers by the end of April, 2022? | 1648037702772 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 655, "YES": 2142} | 0 | 4.632915701859925 | True | play | YES | public | 1647346781951 | Patrick Delaney | The number of readers shows up on the landing page below the book cover on the left, I'm currently at 10 as of first posting this.
Here is a free code for Manifold users:
https://leanpub.com/probabilityforlemurs/c/6OMiYNaqgAj6_manifold
* I'm a first time author, to quote another person on Manifold, I'm basically just some jabroni.
* Like many on Manifold, I have an interest in predictions, which means Probability Theory can play a role. However I often find it difficult to deeply grok probabilistic concepts and end up making emotional decisions the vast majority of the time. "Probability for Lemurs," is my effort to explain Probability Theory from primitives with the hope of helping people internalize concepts better and make better decisions.
* I'm promoting it on Twitter, Linkedin, my social networks, etc.
* Vote NO to subsidize the market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 814.6376659521522, "YES": 2662.483768895995} | {"creatorFee": 26.25721365371317, "platformFee": 6.564303413428292, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794} | 0 | 1648037702772 | 100 | PatrickDelaney | 1647346781951 | 0 | 16 | 1715658293107 | 0 | 1647991109790 | 0.9143968481292368 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7749002830561903 | DB152AicEFIQue9X04Yn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7749002830561903 | will-i-do-36-pushups-per-day-for-th | 366.7874477286611 | {"NO": 48.21255227133889, "YES": 249} | Will I do ≥36 pushups per day for the next week? | 1647910740000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 53, "YES": 249} | 0 | 4.77036774176977 | True | play | NO | public | 1647351421898 | Blazer | Pushup commitment . . . 2! [fist-pump leap]
As with last time, This market resolves YES if I do at least 36 pushups each day until next Monday, inclusive. Doing more than 36 pushups on a given day does not count towards any other day's total. Pushups done after midnight but before I go to bed count towards the "previous" day.
My usual set size is still 24, and in the past sometimes I've been able to regularly do 36 instead. I'm less fit than I was then; I expect to do most of these as a set and a half rather than consecutively, which means making *two* rolls for will and/or remembering this market exists, though I suppose one could say the second's with advantage.
This market will only close at the set time, regardless of whether I fail before then or pass early on the last day. I will not be making any further bets/comments/etc on this market once it opens. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.01200341686007, "YES": 261.6323958268764} | {"creatorFee": 9.96, "platformFee": 2.49, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662} | 0 | 1647913844191 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1647351421898 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 10 | 1715657776772 | 0 | 1 | 0.7749002830561903 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35802359393507255 | uK9XOEstB3zl0Lqdvx6v | {"NO": 94.97988563577243, "YES": 109.67533529837294} | 0.32567504622357707 | will-i-go-to-the-tcity-for-june-202 | 55 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 15} | will i go to the t-city for june 2022? | 1656629880000 | nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 15} | 0 | 3.0183321474983416 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647371058317 | . | i finish uni in less than one month and flight tickets are cheap right now, but i have work and assignments to do and now i do not have the money to rent a place and travel there huh. but i would love to go and if i organise myself great the next two months probably ill be there by may/june. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 36.056344806427624, "YES": 26.92638111963804} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1702108859118 | 100 | DG | 1702108855777 | 0 | 3 | 1650314793459 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072294}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1656462726415 | 1702108855126 | 0.33 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27366504697040117 | kFXBY3TQn6svVdQyqEWF | {"NO": 135.81574561543812, "YES": 6648.010350932313} | 0 | will-the-us-make-daylight-savings-t | 54720.739191677516 | {"NO": 1108.744295505347, "YES": 2309.2395876576447} | Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023? | 1704076271968 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1178, "YES": 2254} | 0.11081841767117585 | 2.036712025430526 | True | play | NO | public | 1647373462309 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "FAQ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "1. What if only some states do this?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a prediction about what happens at the federal level. Individual states can opt out without affecting how this market resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "2. What if a law is passed but then it's reversed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Ask more questions in the comments! Or holler if anything above seems wrong.)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2052.8775926771755, "YES": 2732.821664692867} | {"creatorFee": 26.156222874975906, "platformFee": 2.2911062991302926, "liquidityFee": 9.258808216735407} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1704076271968 | 430.01925488756774 | dreev | 1704076336118 | 1.1 | 2 | 239 | 1650314732106 | 0 | 2 | 90 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502543}, {"name": "Timekeeping", "slug": "timekeeping", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "lzFlyshFYiEU1Q7Cj1Jj", "createdTime": 1673373805724}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1683154016412}] | ["politics-default", "timekeeping", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.17738880997907477 | 1704076140514 | 1704076331096 | 0.01 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16034943705092056 | 7Bkjpne9xSgzCTTInkrN | {"NO": 106.60328136008731, "YES": 2015.4620432688776} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-make-a-for-te | 3584.2720802598733 | {"NO": 82.70060974433, "YES": 201.49056046387324} | Will Manifold Markets make a "for teams" version in 2022 | 1672577940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 262} | 0 | 4.184198691945352 | True | play | NO | public | 1647378780651 | Undox | A teams version is a private version of MM, probably with paid licenses for teams at work to make predictions about things. Staff of a company share and bet on their private markets.
A use case might be "will we make our first Canada sale this quarter?" or "How many new programmers can we hire?". A great way for a company to get insights into it's staff opinion, probably better than a survey, and good for engagement. If "will we make our first Canada sale this quarter?" is at 8%, maybe the sales manager can ask "why do you think that?" etc. Either the prob is resolved, or the blocking problem is fixed for the company.
This is what I call an "expander market". This means it starts with just 10M to gauge interest. Ask me and I will add liquidity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 63.99670031027266, "YES": 276.8927806156126} | {"creatorFee": 3.333969139668267, "platformFee": 0.6875417162142341, "liquidityFee": 0.4444731947328787} | {"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795} | 0 | 1673156187738 | 320.4444731947329 | Undox | 1672636946414 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1650313811158 | 0 | 2 | 26 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849880}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 1672577586567 | 1672636943025 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj | when-will-appveyorcom-stop-showing-1919170cd3ab | 491.21648129727964 | When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in? | 1735736340000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1647379400124 | Undox | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in? Please add answers in the format of the month in which you think it will happen. E.g. \"JAN 2023\". Answers for longer/shorter ranges will be ignored. Duplicates ignored (first response of the duplicated is accepted). Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Without skewing, I think it is safe to make this about the home page https://www.appveyor.com/, so that people can check it without logging in. You need to have a full screen view to see the flag either side of the menu bar at the top.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-05-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7705132306008409, "platformFee": 0.19262830765021022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 800.0000000000003 | Undox | 1708501582761 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b058ad3d4b41", "prob": 0.15805182072642723, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.695693818428878, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.014143099911216, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj", "createdTime": 1647379400325, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8419481792735728, "week": -0.8419481792735728, "month": -0.8419481792735728}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:07.129", "probChangeDay": -0.8419481792735728, "probChangeWeek": -0.8419481792735728, "totalLiquidity": 10.837839135526439, "probChangeMonth": -0.8419481792735728}, {"id": "55934c0c1588", "prob": 0.002, "text": "MAR 2022", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.009720649302492638, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.850604001943827, "textFts": "'2022':2 'mar':1", "contractId": "3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj", "createdTime": 1647379435645, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:07.146", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.21714285714285714, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "b4cd2ea20d7a", "prob": 0.006746929379548517, "text": "APR 2022", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.08261608059989335, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.16237359578853, "textFts": "'2022':2 'apr':1", "contractId": "3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj", "createdTime": 1647379441647, "probChanges": {"day": 0.006746929379548517, "week": 0.006746929379548517, "month": 0.006746929379548517}, "subsidyPool": 0, 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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469017}] | ["politics-default"] | 1708501582591 | 1702130471578 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5304287574505188 | 4b2JOXFhzZnSdPtJOmc9 | {"NO": 4.203452722150692, "YES": 47.89915625646973} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-save-your-scr | 184 | Will manifold markets save your scrolling position on your browser when using the back button by June 1st 2022? | 1654066740000 | EbiS7JpmUFhavoZGRBWr1GR2hyz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.453519153268676 | True | play | NO | public | 1647384263034 | Sam Cree | I'm hoping for this feature to be implemented as it is in many other social media sites - otherwise once I click on a market, I've lost my place in the feed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6776836923621317, "platformFee": 0.6071530617480355, "liquidityFee": 2.6776836923621317} | 0 | 1654071197236 | 12.677683692362129 | SamCree | 1653865249295 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx4wdMGwibL0x43ODCew_1ZoPm-BZCnkhbsrNUJ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653865247940 | 0.09018928056956012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5040175146200391 | he8u5xlwkk05D9vtHirb | {"NO": 1268.604025416058, "YES": 192.77196550445666} | 1 | will-this-market-complete-at-least | 7830 | Will this market complete at least 10 cycles between 50% and 25%? | 1647730607598 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9930807149061165 | True | play | YES | public | 1647385361045 | Gurkenglas | I'll count the times this market's rounded/displayed probability goes to 25% and back to 50%. This resolves YES if the count reaches 10, and NO if the market closes before that.
Mar 16, 12:13am: That's 7!
Mar 16, 12:13am: If the probability displayed on the screen at the top is at most 25 and later it is at least 50 then that's one cycle completed.
Mar 16, 7:26pm: We're at 9 cycles. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.59691836425534, "platformFee": 35.02618598346681, "liquidityFee": 146.59691836425534} | 0 | 1647730607598 | 346.59691836425543 | Gurkenglas | 1647385361045 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.5 | 1647725725788 | 0.8136544828515052 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.387031327632355 | e9zzExiZEYfKgFS8WVj6 | {"NO": 8.568651718650962, "YES": 138.88430061758868} | 0 | will-my-five-year-old-open-her-last | 252.68449260884356 | Will my five year old open her last Christmas present before her half-birthday? | 1649746740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.445669043235776 | True | play | NO | public | 1647388309933 | Alicorn | My five year old has chosen to leave one of her Christmas presents unopened, in her toy box. She has resisted some (gentle) suggestions to open the present. If she hasn't opened it by her half-birthday, April 12, I'll present it (no pun intended) among the half-birthday festivities. I'm not going to try that hard to get her to open it but others are welcome to move the market provided she is allowed to make the decision herself. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.569108291982069, "platformFee": 0.4539532134149577, "liquidityFee": 2.569108291982069} | 0 | 1649781848076 | 22.54575537713354 | Alicorn | 1647388309933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.037494735048041794 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2307113323140676 | 28EwXhVszXx4AZnaY7bD | {"NO": 800.0055830519643, "YES": 2860.703643937833} | 0 | in-the-glowfic-continuity-planecras | 2702.1763991814414 | In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps? | 1651272433741 | ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5551816519543968 | True | basic | NO | public | 1647393213276 | John Beshir | This market resolves to YES if in the glowfic continuity "planecrash", one of the conspirators in Project Lawful deliberately reveals the conspiracy to Keltham, attempts to do so, or is removed from the project or has their participation in the project reduced (e.g. removed from classes but remaining on site) in order to prevent them from doing so, and it is not part of a plan that Security is aligned with (e.g. the drilled have-Keltham-take-them-with-him plan), prior to the start of Day 47.
The start of Day 47 is confirmed to have occurred if a tag being posted containing the Day 47 PL timestamp or a later timestamp, and this timestamp is not a hypothetical, temporary flash forward, or otherwise false. It is also considered to have occurred if narrative describes a sequence of day/night cycles, seasons, or years since the previous PL timestamp tag that would correspond to passing the start of the 47th actual day., and this is also not hypothetical, a temporary flash forward, or otherwise false.
Whether a start of Day 47 was hypothetical, a temporary flash forward, or otherwise false is determined by waiting 48 real world hours for any return to previous time or confirmation of its hypothetical nature. If this time passes, the start of Day 47 is considered confirmed. If this time passes and then the described events are revealed to be hypothetical, a flash forward, or false, it's too late- this market still resolves as though Day 47 started at that point in the thread.
This market resolves NO if the start of Day 47 is confirmed to have occurred prior to the conditions for the market resolving YES occurring. It will also resolve NO if Keltham discovers or identifies the conspiracy in some other way and reveals this knowledge to the conspirators as a whole, as it is then no longer possible for them to reveal or attempt to reveal the conspiracy to him.
This market resolves N/A if:
- There is a timeskip of unknown duration prior to the conditions for YES resolution being satisified, and within the next 48 real world hours no further timestamp or other tag allows us to place whether Day 47 started prior to the conditions being met or not.
- We reach 1st January 2023 and the conditions for NO and YES resolution are both not met. This would occur if we didn't progress 30 days in the story by then, or if the continuity was abandoned.
Own trading policy: I may trade on this market. I have no reason to believe I have insider information on this market.
Mar 17, 12:36am: "What if the conspirator who is removed from the project has never even interacted with Keltham"; in principle this could count but they'd need to be "a conspirator". I would not count an infiltrator, but in principle, say, a character at the hidden real Asmodean temple who had not in fact met Keltham, or someone who started out loyal, got through their first day with Asmodia, and immediately decided they wanted to break the conspiracy would count.
Mar 17, 12:36am: I do not think the above is an at all likely way for this to resolve, but the wording does not technically preclude it and I'd abide by that. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.67255182476768, "platformFee": 7.222227636531983, "liquidityFee": 36.67255182476768} | 0 | 1651272433741 | 1036.6725518247677 | jbeshir | 1647393213276 | 0 | 14 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390508}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.23 | 1651272126789 | 1651272135461 | 0.1781869320679219 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4925135129491215 | atkBQghx0gBvfcLT16l8 | {"NO": 3.594649273417791, "YES": 35.31495214304618} | 1 | a-player-has-acidic-slime-in-their | 40 | A player has Acidic Slime in their graveyard. Gamekeeper dies, and they use its ability, putting Volrath's Shapeshifter onto the battlefield and a Forest into their graveyard. Do they get to destroy something? | 1647457200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.471222202354012 | True | play | YES | public | 1647395253324 | Isaac King | Mar 16, 12:06pm: Interesting, people got this one wrong. Gamekeeper's instructions are followed in order, so the Shapeshifter is put onto the battlefield first, at which point it triggers, and then the Forest is put into the graveyard. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.546790205819395, "platformFee": 0.13669755145484874, "liquidityFee": 0.546790205819395} | 0 | 1647457875859 | 10.546790205819395 | IsaacKing | 1647395253324 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39881883818263375 | 2hfREKSqnTY6CnIX0AYA | {"NO": 77.03932329640531, "YES": 154.8398998372143} | 1 | will-the-temperature-in-my-office-r | 55 | Will the temperature in my office reach 24 Celsius before the weekend? | 1647648000000 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.91507521719352 | True | play | YES | public | 1647395443688 | Rick | I have a device in my office that records temperature 24 hrs/day. Will it record a temperature of at least 24 Celsius before Friday at 5pm PDT?
I will do my best not to disturb the sensor or do anything unusual. I have not touched it in a couple weeks and I do not anticipate needing to do so this week. If I have strong evidence that someone has tampered with the sensor (especially for the purpose of resolving this market in a particular direction), I will resolve randomly using the implied probabilities at the latest time before any suspected tampering, or whichever resolution is most adversarial such tampering.
Potentially useful information:
- You can see the data recorded for the past month here: https://tinyurl.com/2p89j7su
- The office is located in Berkeley, CA
- The building's climate control was out of order until early last week
- Normally the sensor can get sunlight on it for a short time during the day, but last week I was out of the office and I believe the shades were down the whole time
Mar 18, 5:39pm: The temperature broke the 24C threshold at 11:19am on Wednesday the 16th. https://tinyurl.com/ye278nbu
Although I think the air temperature probably broke at its highest, I am surprised how hot the sensor got. I think it must have been sunnier in the morning that most of the recorded time before this week.
Mar 18, 5:46pm: (Sorry, I meant to say that the air temperature probably broke 24C at it's highest, not just the sensor itself) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.884470591260222, "platformFee": 0.16010016278570754, "liquidityFee": 0.884470591260222} | 0 | 1647650803232 | 100.88447059126023 | meefburger | 1647395443688 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1647613960434 | 0.2481572184902533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8939067769062473 | 7LFZ4xm4jSQRLsJcVxr1 | {"NO": 226.60584075171417, "YES": 608.8474340489671} | 1 | will-russia-default-on-its-debt-in | 1112.5843079724907 | Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? | 1649524608340 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8423128132136268 | True | play | YES | public | 1647397192410 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10282/will-russia-default-on-its-debt-in-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.74930532249275, "platformFee": 4.40713244277736, "liquidityFee": 21.74930532249275} | 0 | 1649524608340 | 519.1566587052096 | MetaculusBot | 1647397192410 | 0 | 13 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372204}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223812}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.9 | 1647566764660 | False | 0.7582167679565566 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8322729233251746 | oUabbzZK3pLN1dhty2BY | {"NO": 15316.696588610843, "YES": 345.0860724112981} | 1 | will-russia-be-the-worlds-most-sanc | 21804.727777562002 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | 1677041940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 1.4157674192036502 | True | play | YES | public | 1647397356576 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/
Close date updated to 2023-02-21 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 79.71406107101859, "platformFee": 10.633550101630782, "liquidityFee": 56.17804098264526} | 0 | 1677116745559 | 793.9560764322158 | MetaculusBot | 1677099551288 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420923}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016314769}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371011}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224123}] | ["world-default", "global-macro", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.59 | 1677037299128 | 1677099548518 | False | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29978245601252623 | ibX4ekJgSAyxFOpKxS1R | {"NO": 178.7927939762479, "YES": 14398.385638116875} | 0 | will-kyiv-fall-before-2023 | 20887.78408055132 | Will Kyiv fall before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4917631998176466 | True | play | NO | public | 1647397475888 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10269/kyiv-fall-before-2023/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 67.9131205548667, "platformFee": 8.35715083528123, "liquidityFee": 46.85931046307342} | 0 | 1672697850703 | 693.4413570910406 | MetaculusBot | 1671513564903 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 62 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420318}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370514}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224056}] | ["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.48 | 1671513564800 | 1661613820073 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14688027381490498 | onULUHPWLGhTkzQsD0CD | {"NO": 440.7725950253183, "YES": 1380.0015161555002} | 0.05212426182417879 | will-russia-purposely-disconnect-fr | 1377.3344334110393 | Will Russia purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4576615246931626 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647397559834 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10121/russia-disconnects-from-internet-by-2023/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754215157 | 521.8057633146518 | MetaculusBot | 1672084471944 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 14 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670142179}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371388}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224231}] | ["please-resolve", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.15 | 1672084471784 | False | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5506677746931218 | x1TIxXbvP3hHzep0hA11 | {"NO": 12.876191560248454, "YES": 18.766141447410092} | 1 | will-my-cash-register-be-over-the-e | 13 | Will my cash register be over the expected count at the end of my shift? | 1647457200000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.048645883421809 | True | play | YES | public | 1647403180444 | Em ✨ | Cashiering morning shift. Sometimes people leave behind their change, or I make mistakes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.42200012547246935, "platformFee": 0.10550003136811734, "liquidityFee": 0.42200012547246935} | 0 | 1647487697840 | 15.422000125472469 | hamnox | 1647403180444 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.4567818341769737 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3702899173847242 | 855rZW9QdP0Ls79GbP63 | {"NO": 69.91577516767138, "YES": 0.38116157679727003} | 1 | will-someone-buy-one-of-my-incorrec | 60 | Will someone buy one of my incorrect laptop stickers in the next week? | 1647450613769 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.46336360287141 | True | play | YES | public | 1647406401548 | Em ✨ | Printed a bunch for my programming friends, intending to sell them at $2. Forgot to advertise, a rather crucial step lol. Resolves yes if someone with a US address sends me $2 about this or I accept a different offer. image here, not all of them are properly cut out yet: https://photos.app.goo.gl/9cirLwtk4zD81TYK8 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3368993293145003, "platformFee": 0.08422483232862507, "liquidityFee": 0.3368993293145003} | 0 | 1647450613769 | 10.3368993293145 | hamnox | 1657733128579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.33 | 1657733127122 | 0.9908140337119193 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB | how-will-the-conspiracy-be-revealed | 69.67207945142653 | How will the conspiracy be revealed to Keltham? | 1648969140000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.263241107428642 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647412338565 | Em ✨ | Resolves N/A if Keltham is still unaware, or it's ambiguous whether he's really discovered the core andor extent of Cheliax's lies, by close date.
Preference generally given to more precise guesses. If multiple answers apply I will try to credit a reasonable percentage correctness. If some answers have clear overlap before resolution I will update this description with handling details.
Mar 16, 1:57pm:
#4, the runaway plan risks hitting the N/A condition of an intentionally *partial* reveal; the girls seem to intend to keep managing his information if they can.
#7, accumulation of small things, is hard to judge. Probably will only get a couple percentage points if it triggers, and majority will go to any actually-listed factors known to have contributed. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.026883178057061342, "platformFee": 0.006720794514265336, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651844272983 | 680 | hamnox | 1651795715632 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "22b546211d0f", "prob": 0.03388081395797487, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.46528261503154755, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.267640555252246, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647412338768, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.714", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 2.484593023584824, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "23ca7627d1fe", "prob": 0.06854484465949807, "text": "Direct revelation from Abadar", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.107360724724866, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.636902176348826, "textFts": "'abadar':4 'direct':1 'revel':2", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647412841386, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.714", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 7.768415728076449, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5e11eabeddb4", "prob": 0.040201564772394636, "text": "Keltham sees the conspiracy tracking board", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.9324640129074558, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.262255351542617, "textFts": "'board':6 'conspiraci':4 'keltham':1 'see':2 'track':5", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647413075699, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.058", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 4.556177340871392, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0a0da2efac01", "prob": 0.040201564772394636, "text": "Deliberately, on Snack Service's recommendation", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.9324640129074558, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.262255351542617, "textFts": "'deliber':1 'recommend':6 'servic':4 'snack':3", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647436699350, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 4.556177340871392, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "adbe5bf34473", "prob": 0.17255894351048096, "text": "The conspiracy fails such that Carissa implements the plan of running away with Keltham", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.930902310911742, "userId": "hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.82475943124127, "textFts": "'away':12 'carissa':6 'conspiraci':2 'fail':3 'implement':7 'keltham':14 'plan':9 'run':11", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647451428261, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.059", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 19.556680264521177, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "34c5a326ec13", "prob": 0.06718961210117907, "text": "Osirion gives him info", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.043686029644662, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.373010327630464, "textFts": "'give':2 'info':4 'osirion':1", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647459840838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 7.614822704800296, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "02cf2937693a", "prob": 0.10468071175693573, "text": "He notices something’s wrong after being petrified", "index": 6, "poolNo": 5.488423394997919, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.94170726500189, "textFts": "'notic':2 'petrifi':8 'someth':3 'wrong':5", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647460009495, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 16.051042469396812, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "edc465b79de9", "prob": 0.04510448534793689, "text": "Several apparently small things cause him to update to critical levels of Conspiracy-likelihood ", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1.5031012915102504, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.821772718586473, "textFts": "'appar':2 'caus':5 'conspiraci':14 'conspiracy-likelihood':13 'critic':10 'level':11 'likelihood':15 'sever':1 'small':3 'thing':4 'updat':8", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647461211848, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.056", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 6.9160210866836564, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "109091ff3755", "prob": 0.0610910655887436, "text": "One of the newbies breaks character", "index": 8, "poolNo": 1.7660885590275224, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.143025106079918, "textFts": "'break':5 'charact':6 'newbi':4 'one':1", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647464229785, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.058", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 6.923654100057609, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "79d93f091b6b", "prob": 0.01953426825802997, "text": "Ione Nethysian theological inconsistencies", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.20219990055548032, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.148835412597949, "textFts": "'inconsist':4 'ion':1 'nethysian':2 'theolog':3", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647474744578, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4325130055888646, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ba06b1a69e57", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "He requests documentation (eg: Project transcripts, newspapers, history books, Governance budgets, transaction ledgers) and it's unconvincingly faked or not provided", "index": 10, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "'book':9 'budget':11 'document':3 'eg':4 'fake':18 'govern':10 'histori':8 'ledger':13 'newspap':7 'project':5 'provid':21 'request':2 'transact':12 'transcript':6 'unconvinc':17", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1648246610485, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007333333333333335, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b247bce330a7", "prob": 0.3469121252744316, "text": "He requests documentation (eg: Project transcripts, newspapers, history books, Governance budgets, transaction ledgers) and it's unconvincingly faked, not provided, or honestly reveals a Conspiracy", "index": 11, "poolNo": 38.77976353185953, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.0057887926147, "textFts": "'book':9 'budget':11 'conspiraci':25 'document':3 'eg':4 'fake':18 'govern':10 'histori':8 'honest':22 'ledger':13 'newspap':7 'project':5 'provid':20 'request':2 'reveal':23 'transact':12 'transcript':6 'unconvinc':17", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1648246757693, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:09.055", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651844272000, "totalLiquidity": 53.208525875412846, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1651795711970 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24190117700347832 | rdRPdKSPxqbWkqv1aoM0 | {"NO": 44.43326642534519, "YES": 123.40194161560375} | 0 | will-any-project-lawful-girl-break | 446 | Will any project lawful girl “break” in the next week? | 1649487540000 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.656098228402101 | True | play | NO | public | 1647414941921 | April | Resolves positive if any of the three markets on this topic described in https://glowfic.com/posts/5694?page=58 resolve positive. If we never hear about the resolution of those markets, I’ll use my best judgment (leaning towards N/A if there’s any ambiguity.)
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.421485306331493, "platformFee": 0.5778120918250705, "liquidityFee": 3.421485306331493} | 0 | 1652239584695 | 53.42148530633149 | April | 1647414941921 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1649445883154 | 0.10305396826728332 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.424467059859859 | VaLg9U8w553wgzB0flaf | {"NO": 1114.5625618413217, "YES": 3.8700556877281436} | 0.9953140345383692 | test-b441e0ce65de | 1077 | test | 1647438675665 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.651036502639724 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647437114296 | Gurkenglas | Mar 16, 2:51pm: The dev instance URL is pointing to production! What a mess. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.158969350463802, "platformFee": 0.7897423376159505, "liquidityFee": 3.158969350463802} | 0 | 1647438675665 | 103.15896935046379 | Gurkenglas | 1647437114297 | 0 | 1 | 0 | True | [{"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691178564492}] | ["india"] | 0.4 | False | 0.4520676377084375 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24802835159868514 | topFehd2KHMsWCuRhOX3 | {"NO": 91.76964981853004, "YES": 221.5938906818684} | 0 | will-the-most-traded-open-market-on | 558 | Will the most traded open market on April 2nd be whale bait? | 1648915140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.466776865918834 | True | play | NO | public | 1647437206135 | Duncn | Will the open market listed at the top of Market page when sorted by 'most traded' be a market that can have the outcome manipulated through on-site investment in $M? This includes markets like this one, the outcome of which depends on manipulated markets; most derivative markets (e.g., will market X be at 70% on day y); and anything that automatically takes the most popular response as the result. This would not include markets that are being manipulated for profit, but for which that manipulation will not impact market resolution (e.g. "The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.") 'Open market' is specified because "Will Donald Trump by the President of the United States by Feb. 28, 2022?" may still be sitting there at the top of the page. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.21019327267877, "platformFee": 1.972972648765716, "liquidityFee": 9.21019327267877} | 0 | 1648989828082 | 109.21019327267877 | Duncn | 1647437206135 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1648910881103 | 0.12018067742894212 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.052399429806037144 | 27lFeQhJrN199gBJ6wGF | {"NO": 955.8817763417089, "YES": 1672.9231691899354} | 0.03062808657964709 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside | 1316.4165207726576 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born post 1980 | 1734069540000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1647437932690 | Scott Owens | Under article II of the constitution the minimum age requirement to be POTUS is 35. In 2024 a person born in 1980 would be 44 years old. This market will resolve upon the results of the 2024 presidential election | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0009629797878643286} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.4401011694245165, "platformFee": 1.6466439597023346, "liquidityFee": 7.257510808947202} | 0 | 1000 | ScottOwens | 1718109539094 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 1 | 24 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870162}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467538}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501790777}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864777}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1718109535899 | 1647439299306 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48887085910981365 | WmHqpR2EgL1eTAAT3d1f | {"NO": 37.642805460153966, "YES": 323.60578650104253} | 0.10011854193557257 | will-manifold-markets-adjust-the-m2 | 279 | Will Manifold Markets adjust the M$20 loan to require some small percentage of buy-in in order to reduce long shot $M20 bets clogging the odds, by April 30th 2022? | 1647455299115 | ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1788988989478026 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647440265058 | Nick Allen | This market resolves to "Yes" if MM stops allowing no-cost loans by the end of April in order to disincentivize long shot, high payout free bets from messing up the long odds questions. Otherwise resolves to "No" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.954862761088521, "platformFee": 0.9887156902721302, "liquidityFee": 3.954862761088521} | 0 | 1647455299115 | 103.9548627610885 | NickAllen | 1647440265058 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1647455061968 | 0.37644854842782377 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.897538035915458 | roaiUgvr0F1XZC2oUpca | {"NO": 1855.976684761693, "YES": 873.1263024179791} | 0.9490322635334766 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-3563a1248720 | 1745.3851965415492 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White? | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.282596639183769 | False | basic | public | 1647441318315 | Scott Owens | The United States elected it's first non white president in 2008 with Barack Obama. Will the United States do it again in 2024
Mar 17, 12:28am: Just so we are clear this also includes White Hispanic/Latinos
Mar 17, 3:47pm: Whatever race the victor self-identifies as is what is used for the purpose of this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006479720803440947} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.750523607012719, "platformFee": 2.4969510430896165, "liquidityFee": 5.973740829061534} | 0 | 1000 | ScottOwens | 1719164548176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 40 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046819}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507630}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501839256}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867643}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"] | 0.4 | 1719164545070 | 1680663399560 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wZNO8RHahW4DOaRLoFKZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-all-that-is-solid-hit-1250-fre | 0 | Will All That is Solid hit 1250 free subscribers by the 1st of January 2023? | 1664058744170 | vpUKQAVSO1TNHrsAIfw5izIfEu03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | YES | public | 1647441370875 | Sam Atis | I have a substack called All That is Solid (can be found at https://atis.substack.com). I am currently at 471 free subscribers, the blog has been operating seriously since November 16th 2021. The question resolves positively if I hit 1250 free subscribers at any point before the 1st of January, even if the number dips below that afterwards. A chart of my growth so far can be found here: https://i.imgur.com/B6wm3Gl.png
Mar 16, 2:37pm: Link to blog was broken! It is https://atis.substack.com
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664058744170 | 100 | SamAtis | 1647441370875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4659872657181109 | U1KpIM9qnkzXM1kJ0XA8 | {"NO": 11.924235442789826, "YES": 18.08126157031275} | 1 | will-i-love-cfmm-in-one-month | 125 | Will I love CFMM in one month? | 1650092340000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.31934259164327 | True | play | YES | public | 1647446751172 | Em ✨ | Followup to a discord comment. N/A if the market maker changes again, or the UI is not updated to better reflect the internal changes.
[8:42 AM] Austin: Yeah our API hasn't yet been updated to make CFMM look good - something we'll look to fixing soon!
[8:59 AM] hamnox: I bet I will love it once I get my head around what's going on.
Mar 29, 10:11am: Am adjusting. Only UI change i've really noticed so far is using Volume instead of Liquidity or Pool, and it's... questionable whether that change was helpful.
Apr 19, 11:05am: I like CFMM, but really wish we didn't have a mix of market types floating around. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3103900987160033, "platformFee": 0.48267071096145825, "liquidityFee": 2.3103900987160033} | 0 | 1650391624172 | 12.310390098716002 | hamnox | 1647446751172 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1649805241417 | 0.3652696100442176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3QR2LLToTE7Xq9JZ48py | explain-cpfm-market-math-geometrica | 110 | Explain CPFM market math geometrically. | 1647451709764 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647451659882 | Jenny | I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same.
Mar 16, 1:28pm: I can't spell | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647451709764 | 240 | Jenny | 1647451659882 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "49aba12df832", "prob": 0.008264462809917354, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.18106530826617057, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.72783699194047, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3QR2LLToTE7Xq9JZ48py", "createdTime": 1647451660158, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.756", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647451709000, "totalLiquidity": 1.983471074380165, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3374caec08f8", "prob": 0.9917355371900827, "text": "ANTE", "index": 1, "poolNo": 21.72783699194044, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.1810653082661697, "textFts": "'ant':1", "contractId": "3QR2LLToTE7Xq9JZ48py", "createdTime": 1647451681652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.751", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647451709000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9834710743801587, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ | explain-cfmm-market-math-geometrica | 570.8268873810864 | Explain CFMM market math geometrically. | 1648699140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.80356100785677 | True | play | 1f8f7e1c500c | public | 1647451753194 | Jenny | I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same.
Close date updated to 2022-03-30 11:59 pm
Mar 23, 4:19pm: Extending by a week because I don't find any of the responses are particularly enlightening and I hope someone gives a better explanation. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.537893881284991, "platformFee": 1.3844734703212478, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651342956137 | 440 | Jenny | 1647451753194 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1765c0c846a8", "prob": 0.0017271692440046266, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00862102618317873, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.982798438414257, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ", "createdTime": 1647451753344, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.993", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651342956000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2072603092805552, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "06c2b04279a4", "prob": 0.38120953298610605, "text": "ANTE", "index": 1, "poolNo": 59.84168549880402, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.13677469354661, "textFts": "'ant':1", "contractId": "KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ", "createdTime": 1647451768197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.994", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651342956000, "totalLiquidity": 76.2419065972212, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1f8f7e1c500c", "prob": 0.5589983258220975, "text": "Resistance functions", "index": 2, "poolNo": 79.441119436252, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.67222109910823, "textFts": "'function':2 'resist':1", "contractId": "KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ", "createdTime": 1647452888252, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.992", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651342956000, "totalLiquidity": 70.5602678684644, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "68d986e32888", "prob": 0.023679490335303432, "text": "My preferred explanation is this: You can think of a CFMM as an agent that has a certain utility function on the amount of shares of each outcome it has. When you try to make a trade with it, it determines if that trade increases its utility, and accepts the trade if so. For example, in the \"Constant Product Market Maker\", the agent has a logarithmic utility for each of the share amounts. When you make a trade, you have to keep the sum of these logarithms constant, so the product of the amount of shares doesn't change.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.8850617280082701, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.49166029918602, "textFts": "'accept':49 'agent':14,63 'amount':23,73,94 'certain':18 'cfmm':11 'chang':99 'constant':58,88 'determin':41 'doesn':97 'exampl':55 'explan':3 'function':20 'increas':45 'keep':82 'logarithm':66,87 'make':35,76 'maker':61 'market':60 'outcom':28 'prefer':2 'product':59,91 'share':25,72,96 'sum':84 'think':8 'trade':37,44,51,78 'tri':33 'util':19,47,67", "contractId": "KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ", "createdTime": 1647924763544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.994", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651342956000, "totalLiquidity": 5.683077680472824, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "57aba241fac2", "prob": 0.03438548161248833, "text": "If u buy yes, the line goes up. If u buy no, the line goes down.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.038199359343158, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.154757396164324, "textFts": "'buy':3,11 'goe':7,15 'line':6,14 'u':2,10 'yes':4", "contractId": "KvS6nwImOQARAcMc63vJ", "createdTime": 1648592507779, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.992", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651342956000, "totalLiquidity": 5.501677057998133, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1651347168618 | {"1f8f7e1c500c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48098218470265247 | NdC78swG4dMcAt4YGGGj | {"NO": 24.124956223228025, "YES": 173.74718634104374} | 0 | is-it-socially-acceptable-for-a-mar | 287 | Is it socially acceptable for a market creator to correct a market before resolving it? | 1648018800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.281511038321101 | True | play | NO | public | 1647453170178 | Isaac King | In the situation where a market is about to close at a number different from its current probability, is it ok for the creator to correct it right before closing? (Where "ok" means "the community isn't going to be upset at that person or more reluctant to bid in their future markets".)
Does it depend on whether the market is about a personal detail? For example, if the market gets "will Russia do X" wrong, is it more acceptable for the creator to correct that market than it would be for them to correct a market of "will I do 30 pushups this week"?
(This is all assuming no dishonesty or other manipulation on the creator's part; the market legitimately got it wrong or didn't have enough information.)
I'll resolve this market based on what seems to be the best answer according to the comments. Note that if 51 people say it's fine and 49 people say they'd object, that will result in the market resolving to NO, since having 49% of traders not want to bid in your future markets is still a significant cost to incur. If people agree on a mixed answer, such as the Russia example being fine and the pushup market example being not fine, I'll resolve to PROB 50%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.196880192836614, "platformFee": 1.3954809392388998, "liquidityFee": 6.196880192836614} | 0 | 1648075066602 | 56.1968801928366 | IsaacKing | 1647453170178 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648012459608 | 0.11400566310002133 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09999128371510366 | 5vzQ0RIHXk7xnUZaR172 | {"NO": 501.3555048987276, "YES": 508.9224163328948} | 0.09865123037801982 | the-replacement-administrator-for-a-836f80cfb375 | 81 | The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female. (Powered by CFMM) | 1648529597904 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0181931185094517 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647462834368 | Undox | Resolves as per https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a
This tuns on CFMM for smoother trading TM
No bank runs. Less shenanigans hopefully!
Mar 29, 3:51pm: No interest, very little bet. so freeing up my mana. Call my agent if you have any issues. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0535173423713657, "platformFee": 0.24536902922695758, "liquidityFee": 1.0535173423713657} | 0 | 1648529597904 | 501.05351734237144 | Undox | 1647462834368 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.1 | 1647485286445 | 0.09865123037801983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11095508995301587 | evFFryuVXOL6BUmqK8ex | {"NO": 414.3026513857798, "YES": 2488.572494527738} | 0 | will-chelsea-manning-have-sex-with | 3820.2775625533563 | Will Chelsea Manning have sex with Elon Musk? | 1679036340000 | dT5MmfSYfBgV8lmMDbaX75WQs212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9929869403485645 | True | play | NO | public | 1647463516297 | Ellie High | This market resolves to "YES" if Chelsea Manning has had sex with Elon Musk. I will resolve this question using my own best judgement of whether this has happened.
Mar 16, 1:53pm: EDIT: The market will resolve to N/A if I judge that the story that Chelsea Manning and Grimes have dated is false. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8335820524630577, "platformFee": 0.6666618424885609, "liquidityFee": 2.8335820524630577} | 0 | 1679036842825 | 542.7750075302982 | EllieHigh | 1710451939635 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "sex-and-love"] | 0.3 | 1679034798689 | 1679053040420 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm | what-free-response-market-will-mani | 477.7950848979867 | What free response market will Manifold create and submit to Hacker News? | 1647665940000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.732708068107333 | True | play | 2457e91570f | public | 1647464559844 | James | We are consider creating a free response market on some nerdy topic, like the best tech stack for a new startup, and then submitting it to Hacker News as a way to introduce new users to Manifold.
Additionally, we might award a real USD bounty in the hundreds of dollars to the top traders for the created market.
Submit your suggestions here on what the question for the market we create should be. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.494353601987736, "platformFee": 2.123588400496934, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648870309182 | 760.0000000000002 | JamesGrugett | 1647464559844 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ed6ac815dc35", "prob": 0.06243601320429585, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.230378937714443, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.47585909014522, "textFts": "", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647464560154, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.937", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 4.767841008328047, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "887bde88c476", "prob": 0.04725406000748974, "text": "Other", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.0664799947919033, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.66478869332437, "textFts": "", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647464598991, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.938", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 9.278979056016167, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9103f3e825af", "prob": 0.0009391710119933835, "text": "What free response market will Manifold create and submit to Hacker News?", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0033507215420890937, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5643930645200594, "textFts": "'creat':7 'free':2 'hacker':11 'manifold':6 'market':4 'news':12 'respons':3 'submit':9", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647464749236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.937", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10928535412286645, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be400d4e7059", "prob": 0.06677604914675674, "text": "What will be the next big startup to come out of Silicon Valley?", "index": 3, "poolNo": 4.936498853782764, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.9896905039254, "textFts": "'big':6 'come':9 'next':5 'silicon':12 'startup':7 'valley':13", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647465602501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.941", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 18.45447176419459, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dd2819e4d7e1", "prob": 0.012075094388586989, "text": "What's the best VR setup?", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.15534279637502646, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.709384498995163, "textFts": "'best':4 'setup':6 'vr':5", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647465654257, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.937", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4051018924901224, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6b2c3010882a", "prob": 0.0018418623895267274, "text": "Which IDE will win?", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.009206686991148539, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.989368148729465, "textFts": "'ide':2 'win':4", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647465734517, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.932", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 0.21432580532674647, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ae24ea304131", "prob": 0.0018543495921675868, "text": "What features should the next gen smartphone have?", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.006103473471472825, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.285332778491325, "textFts": "'featur':2 'gen':6 'next':5 'smartphon':7", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647465846958, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.938", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 0.141604877947343, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "30c38beb9666", "prob": 0.02474400579161084, "text": "Which of these [recent forecasting related posts] will reach highest listing on Hacker News?", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.45863055318290413, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.076385848179132, "textFts": "'forecast':5 'hacker':13 'highest':10 'list':11 'news':14 'post':7 'reach':9 'recent':4 'relat':6", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647466071651, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.933", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 2.879302492114716, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "20499d7d5d67", "prob": 0.003234559190663574, "text": "Will the San Francisco average salary top $275k on the 2022 Levels FYI End of YearPay Report", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.04355187240488987, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.420994558095009, "textFts": "'2022':11 '275k':8 'averag':5 'end':14 'francisco':4 'fyi':13 'level':12 'report':17 'salari':6 'san':3 'top':7 'yearpay':16", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647483960560, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.905", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 0.764532172338663, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8ea65b3c588b", "prob": 0.02412588926088831, "text": "Which US city will have the biggest % increase in average salary in the 2022 Levels FYI End of YearPay Report compared to the previous year.", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.28967745593565625, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.717235649036061, "textFts": "'2022':14 'averag':10 'biggest':7 'citi':3 'compar':21 'end':17 'fyi':16 'increas':8 'level':15 'previous':24 'report':20 'salari':11 'us':2 'year':25 'yearpay':19", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647655078843, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8423406344678348, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2457e91570f", "prob": 0.7547189460160203, "text": "What database will this website be using on June 1st?", "index": 10, "poolNo": 50.0658867375381, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.271240482897888, "textFts": "'1st':10 'databas':2 'june':9 'use':7 'websit':5", "contractId": "m6TTpkTLkjIVRjd6bZbm", "createdTime": 1647665472144, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.898", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648870309000, "totalLiquidity": 28.54179537268128, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647665716943 | {"2457e91570f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4 | in-1-week-what-will-i-conclude-to-b | 311 | In 1 week, what will I conclude to be the number of daily active users the most popular forecasting or prediction markets currently has? | 1648076400000 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.770877043664859 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647474231865 | Stephen Malina | As part of a bet (https://twitter.com/krishnanrohit/status/1504164219083706371) I proposed, I want to know how many daily active users (DAUs), averaged over the past three months (or smaller number if this is unavailable), the most popular forecasting or prediction markets platform currently has. However, rather than actually research this, I want to experiment with using the market as a way to get the answer.
So, the way this will work is: users can submit free response (numerical) answers and a comment justifying them. Then, on March 23rd around 7:00 PM EST, I will pick the answer I am most convinced by and close the market in favor of that answer.
Separately, to accompany the bet I hope to make, I'm going to have another market that will be predicting whether, 5 years from now, any single prediction market or forecasting platform will have 10X the number of DAUs relative to whatever this market resolves to. This second market will get created upon closure of this market. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.2, "platformFee": 2.55, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648079291386 | 420.0000000000001 | StephenMalina | 1647474231865 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9719f5d2ea6d", "prob": 0.7182690235400145, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.983242510461444, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.820755626579636, "textFts": "", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1647474232059, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.349", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 30.051304155731785, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c7323f8b088", "prob": 0.005734660066358111, "text": "1,0000000000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.04645570898672992, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.054409634237068, "textFts": "'0000000000':2 '1':1", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1647479146599, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.348", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6116970737448651, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1731a338b661", "prob": 0.15134714191034573, "text": "2500", "index": 2, "poolNo": 9.374059778453189, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.5634149576482, "textFts": "'2500':1", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1647482306185, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.35", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 22.197580813517376, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "489c1c87bd33", "prob": 0.010233582770850227, "text": "350", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.19424147848005896, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.78654783348453, "textFts": "'350':1", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1647482419590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.35", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9102687838920427, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "776f24518568", "prob": 0.0940347439906992, "text": "37,000", "index": 4, "poolNo": 4.443325921080934, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.80863364739957, "textFts": "'000':2 '37':1", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1647701176916, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.348", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 13.791762451969216, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "497822ed160b", "prob": 0.020380847721732116, "text": "no answer specifying number matches", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.4311577076885715, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.723885182349196, "textFts": "'answer':2 'match':5 'number':4 'specifi':3", "contractId": "egp9Wo7M78BZpRKbJRs4", "createdTime": 1648028467267, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.35", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648079291000, "totalLiquidity": 2.9891909991873775, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1647701535245 | {"1731a338b661": 42.10526315789474, "489c1c87bd33": 31.57894736842105, "776f24518568": 26.31578947368421} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11996729059900466 | ioGfapCQqG60GUcSWXr5 | {"NO": 272.2402242870665, "YES": 9036.776142974819} | 0 | will-the-united-states-participate | 17643.16877462367 | Will the United States participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | 1684174948313 | d0b6iOtH1VR8aL9WJ95T6Vn0QYB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4060240997964626 | True | play | NO | public | 1647478453585 | kalassak | This market resolves to YES if the United States is listed as an official participant in the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest. Guest or "one-off" appearances as a competitor are included (e.g. Australia in 2015).
Performances as an interval act resolve to NO. For example, if the winner of American Song Contest performs on stage during one of the shows, but they are not a competitor in the contest able to receive votes, that would resolve to NO.
With the EBU developing this year's American Song Contest, US participation in Eurovision in the near future is a distinct possibility.
Tentative closing date set to 23:59 UTC May 31st, 2023, however expect this to resolve by the heads of delegation meeting likely sometime in March 2023, but potentially as late as the final sometime in May 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.131183466264392, "platformFee": 0.9433327713206714, "liquidityFee": 4.131183466264392} | 0 | 1684174948313 | 484.06869586032974 | kalassak | 1684174947219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgNUM940XEPWddv4CHQcGAHkd3YLtUbJKF0x24oAQ=s96-c | 32 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Eurovision 2023", "slug": "eurovision-2023", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "FLXhwWniy8oUhEmZLnGE", "createdTime": 1679945186412}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862072}] | ["eurovision-2023", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1684174355441 | 1684174943794 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5001441315646487 | 3jFC07b2mVELlFUFuXls | {"NO": 10.08151198683797, "YES": 10.221275010316495} | 0.4967021585678267 | test-market-0de49bdad13a | 2 | Test market | 1647483450601 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.537066510774228 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647482771653 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.07558613635789443, "platformFee": 0.01889653408947361, "liquidityFee": 0.07558613635789443} | 0 | 1647483450601 | 10.075586136357895 | IsaacKing | 1647482771653 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.4967021585678266 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5004321165965104 | ekL3KmaV7S3UJJfiRI7m | {"NO": 11.982678828222967, "YES": 8.580743635565863} | 0.5831383473881999 | test-50e066402dac | 2 | Test | 1647483364881 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.54624206667307 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647482889270 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06928468710812535, "platformFee": 0.01732117177703134, "liquidityFee": 0.06928468710812535} | 0 | 1647483364881 | 10.069284687108125 | Jenny | 1647482889270 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5436689068136632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000017933922721 | lT3QWb1l1a7ieuWxYc35 | {"NO": 100.99009950002475, "YES": 99.1765309081528} | 0.504531940423309 | test-will-i-lose-some-manifold-doll | 1 | [TEST] Will I lose some Manifold dollars by deleting this market? | 1647483867426 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7710466292322513 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647483625033 | Austin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03960199990099501, "platformFee": 0.009900499975248752, "liquidityFee": 0.03960199990099501} | 0 | 1647483867426 | 100.039601999901 | Austin | 1647483625033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.504531940423309 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5043238135729582 | BjjoBnqxMKKbVzENCn9n | {"NO": 180.20828697259904, "YES": 62.21355385309091} | 0.7466521812403096 | test-is-the-delete-button-gone | 98 | [TEST] Is the delete button gone? | 1647565477201 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8086717038450955 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647483884811 | Austin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7005221463765907, "platformFee": 0.6751305365941477, "liquidityFee": 2.7005221463765907} | 0 | 1647565477201 | 102.70052214637658 | Austin | 1647483884811 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1647493533184 | 0.7466521812403095 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3A3LRdBjeIhDiDKcMafk | test-e8699387123f | 10 | test | 1647485010081 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.36638862471458 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647484996171 | Isaac King | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647485010081 | 220 | IsaacKing | 1647484996171 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "415dbe168dc3", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3A3LRdBjeIhDiDKcMafk", "createdTime": 1647484996388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:34.624", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647485010000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | 13NWdx9Qe57Riwjubsol | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.01 | yet-more-tests | 0 | Yet more tests | 1647545199464 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647485416739 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647545199464 | 10 | IsaacKing | 1647485416739 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9900000660326675 | 84wg7z1H65ayFrc2jJyO | {"NO": 10.999818189903246, "YES": 9.991846834931453} | 1 | teeeest | 1 | teeeest | 1647486132065 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1647486121920 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0007272403870195187, "platformFee": 0.00018181009675487968, "liquidityFee": 0.0007272403870195187} | 0 | 1647486132065 | 10.00072724038702 | IsaacKing | 1647486121920 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48109509127923594 | 5t2f67DHZg7D9O4ixnny | {"NO": 802.3495701705549, "YES": 0.3842475878358138} | 1 | will-the-ever-forward-still-be-stuc | 791 | Will the Ever Forward still be stuck on March 20? | 1647759540000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.45036871009972 | True | play | YES | public | 1647488230065 | Alicorn | I will resolve this by Googling the question; comments are welcome to point me to particular sources. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7533820248069975, "platformFee": 0.16649877418564923, "liquidityFee": 0.7533820248069975} | 0 | 1647800050841 | 20.753382024807 | Alicorn | 1647488230065 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.999483726176011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | OGKrBpOEan79IWOx4VaP | {"NO": 20, "YES": 20} | 0.25 | will-niche-coffee-announce-a-new-co | 0 | Will Niche Coffee announce a new coffee grinder in 2022 | 1647877873977 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.780929739030007 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647493436480 | Undox | Yes if Niche Coffee announce intent to ship a new model of coffee grinder with a name different to “Niche Zero”. New colours, improvements or variations on the existing NZ dont count.
I am saying unlikely as their main business constraint is making enough of the original model to meet demand, and the rest of the consumer market is still playing catch up trying to copy NZ qualities.
Mar 19, 3:55pm: Guessing the intersection of home espresso obsession and MM is … just me? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647877873977 | 20 | Undox | 1647493436480 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2371546251297817 | 890wrSAdHGzd8KGOrbmH | {"NO": 1769.9592311950066, "YES": 9.96451187428914} | 1 | will-valinor-unfuck-its-backyard-ea-0a84aab8c7e9 | 1435.974866763384 | Will Valinor unfuck its backyard eating area by April 1st. | 1648882740000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.379342288773477 | True | play | YES | public | 1647493749289 | Mike Blume | Mar 16, 10:09pm: https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-valinor-unfuck-its-backyard-ea | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.136287908979995, "platformFee": 3.166159288222106, "liquidityFee": 18.136287908979995} | 0 | 1648942257360 | 517.1607142579534 | MichaelBlume | 1647493749289 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1658529460574}, {"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670518236253}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists", "valinor"] | 0.2 | 1648677368321 | 0.9822129735570969 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4 | what-will-be-my-favorite-questions | 838.235240740475 | What will be my favorite question(s) during the Mar 17 AMA? | 1647561000000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7620990761042545 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647494273639 | Austin | I'm hosting a live Q&A/AMA tomorrow at 4pm! Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. I'll aim to answer them all, and then pick my favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 4pm PT here: https://discord.gg/JPuHas38?event=953882535836917772
I reserve the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; probably don't invest too much mana. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Close date updated to 2022-03-17 4:50 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.805657862931492, "platformFee": 2.451414465732873, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647561399932 | 920.0000000000002 | Austin | 1647494273639 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d7b2462a1515", "prob": 0.10059072692693213, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.3067548204913213, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.62532739984018, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4", "createdTime": 1647494273814, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.065", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647561399000, "totalLiquidity": 6.8976498464182034, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "48a0be8378d7", "prob": 0.015837613816039476, "text": "What is your favorite question during this AMA?", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.2181307006432448, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.554821663072927, "textFts": "'ama':8 'favorit':4 'question':5", "contractId": "PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4", "createdTime": 1647495662331, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.064", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647561399000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7195123571700002, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "02b34d3b43f4", "prob": 0.07644895246446844, "text": "How and why did you become an entrepreneur?", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.388044459366001, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.849067134490102, "textFts": "'becom':6 'entrepreneur':8", "contractId": "PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4", "createdTime": 1647499067748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.064", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647561399000, "totalLiquidity": 8.300171981856574, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "224582d0aca8", "prob": 0.02414177446246371, "text": "What was your favorite part about working for Google? Least favorite?", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.4122645301650477, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.66454690331296, "textFts": "'favorit':4,11 'googl':9 'least':10 'part':5 'work':7", "contractId": "PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4", "createdTime": 1647499122538, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.065", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647561399000, "totalLiquidity": 2.621106941638917, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f78c27aef5f0", "prob": 0.030177218078079646, "text": "How should we value future generations of humans, in utilitarian terms? If we expect trillions more humans, should we make decisions mostly by the long-term effects on our descendants? 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0.08083328344442868 | kkFN1tl0fKOVxNfQMzjs | {"NO": 10636.42998816415, "YES": 7085.210044574038} | 1 | will-this-d10-come-up-1 | 9879 | Will this d10 come up 1? | 1647644340000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.1310135674658932 | True | plus | YES | public | 1647517203786 | Gurkenglas | That leaderboard's looking pretty unreachable, huh? Are you really supposed to spend all that time doing research? I have a deal for you. Stake your M$ on YES and only the future you that wins has to do research. I bet I'll make those M$ back from you.
The d10 is the last numeric digit of the hash of the first ethereum block whose timestamp shows the hour that begins one minute after this market closes. You can see this on https://blockexplorer.one/ethereum/mainnet | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 147.08763036757557, "platformFee": 29.0000699216542, "liquidityFee": 147.08763036757557} | 0 | 1647644520890 | 10147.087630367578 | Gurkenglas | 1647517203786 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0.08 | 1647606025530 | 0.11452136772587415 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45805030853337025 | mZofvFfnsDsr29oo9lIT | {"NO": 61.59491670749538, "YES": 49.70095120455582} | 0 | will-it-be-a-hassle-to-get-my-meds | 112 | Will it be a hassle to get my meds in April? | 1650351540000 | rR0GrrJUWJXOUvtbDvcTbeWQSJf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.140227955651919 | True | play | NO | public | 1647547824534 | Elliot Lindsey | This market resolves to YES if, when I try to pick up my meds from the pharmacy in April, I have to call my insurance or doctor to resolve any issues, make multiple trips to the pharmacy due to delays or mix-ups on their part, wait more than 10 minutes for the pharmacy to process the information on my card, or pay out of pocket for my meds. It will resolve NO if I am able to get my meds in a timely manner without jumping through any hoops to get insurance to cover them, or am delayed due to procrastination or other stupidity on my part but not because of problems on the pharmacy's end.
In the last 7 months I have gotten my meds covered by insurance 3 times. Every time I've gone to get my meds, there's been issues with prior authorization, incorrect insurance records, or in one memorable case state insurance switching me from one intermediary to another a few weeks after I worked out all the problems with my coverage (putting me back at square one). This week I called insurance 3 days ago to get my information corrected and was able to pick up my meds today. At this point I want to say I've worked out all the problems I've been having, but am leaving a lot of room for the possibility that I've missed something or that something unexpected will happen. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.920168744903245, "platformFee": 0.5553347007461227, "liquidityFee": 2.920168744903245} | 0 | 1650480556521 | 52.92016874490323 | elliotlindsey | 1647547824534 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1649525740263 | 0.5115882043263015 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07841089246643593 | KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy | {"NO": 891.8280506885957, "YES": 2549.2369120212597} | 0.028904918436338405 | will-the-united-state-elect-its-fir | 2654.266924598988 | Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024 | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.536516106926914 | False | basic | public | 1647551269071 | Scott Owens | Like my other demographic presidential markets this will resolve based on whatever gender the victor self-identifies as, so a transwomen count as well. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.204808943004165, "platformFee": 0.7946738717330634, "liquidityFee": 3.785742350678126} | 0 | 1000 | ScottOwens | 1717243723191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481748}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501811765}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866141}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1701990147500}] | ["politics-default", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.36 | 1717243720051 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15630043054115925 | FGD8VVIGCu52uqDAp82o | {"NO": 113.19833858653104, "YES": 69.80469806247015} | 0.23101722325983662 | will-my-avatar-still-be-a-15-megapi | 97 | Will my avatar still be a 15 megapixel jpg on April 1st, 2022? | 1647561458957 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.1040442676002495 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647551319386 | Adam | I do not intend to change my avatar. This question is intended to measure whether the Manifold Market team will scale stored avatars to a reasonable, avatar-y size. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5675749142366975, "platformFee": 0.6418937285591744, "liquidityFee": 2.5675749142366975} | 0 | 1647561458957 | 102.5675749142367 | Adam | 1647551319386 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 1647552930844 | 0.2310172232598366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8007527374043022 | rx5T6He3BwbRtPRflmtm | {"NO": 1090.4262369437402, "YES": 59.770392896692556} | 1 | will-the-ue-union-be-elected-as-the | 1135 | Will the UE union be elected as the collective bargaining representative of the MIT graduate students? | 1649436222183 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.0442845716720495 | True | play | YES | public | 1647560260534 | Peter Berggren | This market will resolve to YES if The Tech (https://thetech.com/) publishes an article prior to April 14, 2022 saying that the union election described in https://ovc.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/NEE.01-RC-289879.NEE_.01-RC-289879.REVISED_MITNoticeofElection-Manual.pdf has elected the United Electrical, Radio, & Machine Workers of America (UE) as the collective bargaining representative for the graduate students of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This market will resolve to NO if The Tech publishes an article saying that this union election did not elect UE as the graduate students' collective bargaining representative. If The Tech does not publish an article one way or the other by April 14, then the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, news.mit.edu, mitgsu.org, and grad-union.mit.edu, in that order, will be consulted as to whether this union has been voted in or not. If no such source has publicized that, the question will resolve inconclusively.
Close date updated to 2022-04-14 11:59 pm
Apr 8, 12:43pm: https://thetech.com/2022/04/08/grad-students-unionize confirms that the grad students have unionized. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2565129272397706, "platformFee": 0.5427521545399618, "liquidityFee": 3.2565129272397706} | 0 | 1649436222183 | 103.25651292723978 | PeterBerggren | 1647560260534 | 0 | 5 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576337}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534949}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507698}, {"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741669}] | ["politics-default", "science-default", "economics-default", "mit"] | 0.8 | 1649264790862 | 0.9865444820070038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B3qurWNNa2tC94Bnsu8T | test-do-buy-buttons-show-up-in-clos | 20 | [TEST] Do buy buttons show up in closed markets? | 1647562020000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.850308340515122 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647561875753 | Austin |
Close date updated to 2022-03-17 5:07 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647565437930 | 240 | Austin | 1698800553292 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d85decf63834", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "B3qurWNNa2tC94Bnsu8T", "createdTime": 1647561876033, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.19", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565437000, "totalLiquidity": 59.99999999999999, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5f93f9e4bc62", "prob": 0.75, "text": "Test", "index": 1, "poolNo": 103.92304845413263, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.64101615137755, "textFts": "'test':1", "contractId": "B3qurWNNa2tC94Bnsu8T", "createdTime": 1647561900373, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.192", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647565437000, "totalLiquidity": 60, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1698800551072 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12826547762197 | NCr2fxAYHuEuKFwJiIYc | {"NO": 29.9999390429747, "YES": 0.0009957924615942916} | 1 | test-market-df80076778bc | 20 | Test market | 1647567682074 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.108285764881249 | True | play | YES | public | 1647567615634 | Account deletion requested | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00024382810118854794, "platformFee": 6.0957025297136984e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00024382810118854794} | 0 | 1647567682074 | 10.000243828101189 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647567615634 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5950988803748143 | KUx3jSGolFVMDuLJefQ6 | {"NO": 6.139696319252266, "YES": 30.663855919435115} | 1 | will-more-than-9-people-show-up-to | 37 | Will more than 9 people show up to the next Bayesian Choir meeting? | 1648407600000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.369081463555833 | True | play | YES | public | 1647571194015 | Em ✨ | Count includes the director. Last one was almost under strength for the arrangement we wanted to try, but we made it work. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5020701935780971, "platformFee": 0.08367836559634952, "liquidityFee": 0.5020701935780971} | 0 | 1648427942667 | 15.502070193578097 | hamnox | 1647571194015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1648280810901 | 0.22736946842854736 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1737569160081212 | onhTHDgQVDpX6V5inItM | {"NO": 1176.1787461120725, "YES": 49676.2000978228} | 0 | will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p | 84241.51921003535 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 1.1719768842578564e-15 | 0.4604362653383518 | True | basic | NO | public | 1647571853675 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7679434215873369, "platformFee": 0.033967987569559675, "liquidityFee": 0.20380792541735804} | 0 | 1704124461040 | 2330.203807925417 | MetaculusBot | 1704124462085 | 1.3 | 3 | 135 | 0 | 2 | 16 | [{"name": "coup d'état", "slug": "coup-detat", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "wiaUz7jXkuNBbkBpCwdD", "createdTime": 1670540267753}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677373534823}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224123}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703118441565}] | ["coup-detat", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1484531155206847 | 0.13 | 1704085107635 | 1687625679742 | False | 0 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz | how-many-refugees-will-leave-ukrain | 1236.0916604445365 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.687792070845936 | True | play | d51fec7ccfc5 | public | 1647572152904 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/
Rounded to nearest 500k, i.e. "5 million", "5.5 million", "6 million", etc.
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"OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647596812411, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.724", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754204000, "totalLiquidity": 5.403103429061952, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "39b586c5fba4", "prob": 0.0021408702670656344, "text": "5.5 Million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.01153900051746734, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.378325436846676, "textFts": "'5.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647623162672, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.726", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754204000, "totalLiquidity": 0.24911944925854657, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "88ada4874e83", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "4.5 Million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": 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"30eb3efe1fb6", "prob": 0.002874501984009994, "text": "6 Million", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.017959171287909793, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.229791356563997, "textFts": "'6':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647623200624, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.726", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754204000, "totalLiquidity": 0.33448750359389023, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a67530a3ae26", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "3.5 Million", "index": 6, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'3.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647623216128, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.726", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754204000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7dde25d680c1", "prob": 0.010425715248516492, "text": "6.5 Million", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.1245236587468474, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.819372350168823, "textFts": "'6.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647623232081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.724", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754204000, "totalLiquidity": 1.213174138009192, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e54ce07dcf31", "prob": 0.006654136884215442, "text": "7 Million", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.06337305400832247, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.460484827342503, "textFts": "'7':1 'million':2", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647623240353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, 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0.08286171906209715 | Na7Gbr2hP84nkB0VPjO1 | {"NO": 743.1735800074669, "YES": 11654.617012236069} | 0 | will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl | 16155.413087843017 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5328563547283154 | True | play | NO | public | 1647572199734 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10267/nato-article-5-invocation-before-2023/
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4163225248503527, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672697865629 | 960 | MetaculusBot | 1672459601074 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664370609278}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664370587747}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664370611180}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370694}] | ["nato", "global-macro", "wars", "metaculus"] | 0.05 | 1672459599910 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21124802456601832 | bddHrqzJnTxFnTqSfF5n | {"NO": 375.45246911733904, "YES": 4206.468812724167} | 0 | will-georgia-impose-sanctions-again | 6047.007560223357 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1475966575755256 | True | play | NO | public | 1647572458435 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2024
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.476749665760476, "platformFee": 1.832214803541698, "liquidityFee": 10.993288821250186} | 0 | 1704124377079 | 645.2525939833895 | MetaculusBot | 1704124377461 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370704}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224054}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701133669717}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.22 | 1702399782077 | 1648872390207 | False | 0.02 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM | if-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-zel | 2027.071366756832 | If Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will it happen for the first time? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7049620866974955 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647572679528 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/
Acceptable answers: months in 2022, i.e. "May 2022". Resolves N/A if does not occur by 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9562477721706046, "platformFee": 0.48906194304265116, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754175048 | 499.99999999999994 | MetaculusBot | 1667866224533 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ee087aceb706", "prob": 0.8850813718404252, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.92724261723717, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.015581400093027, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647572679725, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.466", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 11.144095306930122, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "472e8c942578", "prob": 0.029472195248108297, "text": "April 2022", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.115219322229023, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.72449071092857, "textFts": "'2022':2 'april':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647577109380, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.461", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 6.399676682446373, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b0b03a332d31", "prob": 0.031021382964243522, "text": "May 2022", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.9832371544548455, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.712227731432534, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647577120141, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.46", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 5.495216410808852, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28e43fbef5e5", "prob": 0.017609812407902957, "text": "June 2022", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.41765119805731754, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.299307755456777, "textFts": "'2022':2 'june':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647584648535, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.492", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 3.1194524836856665, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "05314f3aca0d", "prob": 0.03661523753931998, "text": "July 2022", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.9789625774793695, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.757517731520174, "textFts": "'2022':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647913119084, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.491", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 5.02151829110674, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "27542015028c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "August 2022", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'2022':2 'august':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1652760622622, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.487", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cbd2ffd36f03", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "November 2022", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.714771465003035e-05, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.9713799987856534, "textFts": "'2022':2 'novemb':1", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1666998116241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.492", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754175000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009714285714285713, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 3 | 6 | 1667866223084 | 1666998406268 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz | what-will-total-nato-defense-spendi | 1581.5878950368306 | What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022? | 1688183940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.684026630466712 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647572862915 | Metaculus Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rounded to nearest 0.1 million, i.e. \"$1.5 million\", \"$1.6 million\", etc. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | 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"textFts": "'1.6':1 'million':2", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1647626515545, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.587", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 2.808869436682074, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28c9991f7e93", "prob": 0.011967335568414497, "text": "$1.4 million", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.14299672938438632, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.805922774619413, "textFts": "'1.4':1 'million':2", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1647626537542, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.59", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 1.299310718856431, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "792fca3b7d09", "prob": 0.1361845212541648, "text": "$1.3 million", "index": 5, 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0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "29532a62e1eb", "prob": 0.21869021605262756, "text": "$1.2 million", "index": 9, "poolNo": 12.561686521497908, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.87886453852277, "textFts": "'1.2':1 'million':2", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1647626752043, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.59", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 23.743509171428133, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b1a4585bb962", "prob": 0.006614639560299365, "text": "1.5 billion", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.05860247394126401, "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.800908827776858, "textFts": "'1.5':1 'billion':2", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1668948570581, 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"textFts": "'test':1", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1668994869078, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.59", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "40df3e9d8655", "prob": 0.061119043039723285, "text": "1.1 million", "index": 13, "poolNo": 1.069307839273413, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.426185972343283, "textFts": "'1.1':1 'million':2", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1687308880189, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.587", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1688694459000, "totalLiquidity": 4.191020094152454, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 22 | 3 | 0.11055103358828151 | 1687328930762 | 1688694781429 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3507421351780881 | WlRK8Ynk9c8JNpF1gXJq | {"NO": 2236.4165121960405, "YES": 37.40432593791043} | 1 | will-swedens-government-initiate-th | 2380.026695247294 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | 1652826672172 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1287613486384034 | True | play | YES | public | 1647572943968 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/
Expected resolution: Jan 1, 2023
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.67365219450523, "platformFee": 3.445608699084205, "liquidityFee": 20.67365219450523} | 0 | 1652826672172 | 519.8941904213339 | MetaculusBot | 1652712670830 | 0 | 17 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372180}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.32 | 1652712669342 | 0.9699699067455092 |
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