CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5134613014132144

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5134613014132144

will-my-estradiol-level-be-100pgml

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{"NO": 69, "YES": 83}

Will my estradiol level be >=100pg/mL on 2022-03-14?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 69, "YES": 83}

0

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YES

public

1647109516974

Ophelia

I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon. I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day. I intend to get a trough-ish measurement. After the blood draw, I intend to post the time of the blood draw as...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

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1647394420395

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Ophelia

1647109516974

0

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["trans-questions"]

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0.5134613014132144

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.24226898922507292

will-my-estradiol-level-be-150pgml

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{"NO": 86, "YES": 25}

Will my estradiol level be >=150pg/mL on 2022-03-14?

1647394464453

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 86, "YES": 25}

0

4.985598291965444

True

play

NO

public

1647109694763

Ophelia

I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon. I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day. I intend to get a trough-ish measurement. After the blood draw, I intend to post the time of the blood draw as...

BINARY

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0

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{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1647394464453

100

Ophelia

1647109694763

0

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1715658230276

0

0.24226898922507292

0.37383434858378206

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.37383434858378206

will-my-testosterone-level-be-25ngd

111

{"NO": 63, "YES": 48}

Will my testosterone level be >25ng/dL on 2022-03-14?

1647394369440

FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 63, "YES": 48}

0

4.985598291965444

True

play

YES

public

1647110627195

Ophelia

I'm 25 year old amab, started estradiol monotherapy in Jan 2021, and have not had surgeries. My next doctor's appointment is on Monday afternoon. I am currently taking 2mg estradiol sublabially 3 times a day. My previous levels were: Dec 2021: 28ng/dL Dose taken: 1mg estradiol sublabially 4 times a day Sept 2021: 30...

BINARY

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0

1647394369440

100

Ophelia

1647110627195

0

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0

1647113771016

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-braid-anniversary-edition-rele

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{"NO": 180, "YES": 45}

Will Braid: Anniversary Edition release before Taiji?

1664040366724

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 180, "YES": 45}

0

3.7028921288377328

True

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NO

public

1647123138302

Vo Ice

http://braid-game.com/ https://taiji-game.com/ Both sort of related games, both delayed, the Braid game seems to have been delayed even further than its announced goal. Market close is arbitrarily far just because it depends on an unknown release date.

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1664040366724

100

voice

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1650314742619

0

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lottery

10

Lottery

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cpmm-multi-1

0

6.36638862471458

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647127617735

Undox

A lottery ticket costs 50. To play: add an answer and buy 50 in total. You can buy multiple tickets. Tickets with less than 50 bet are ignored. If the 50 is bet by multiple people that is ok. More than 50 is OK but doesn’t increase the chance. When this closes I declare then use a provably fair selection method....

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1647127799669

220

Undox

1647127617735

0

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ANYONE

[{"id": "3a1810095688", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "V4xR8Bu8UQbW4RiXfIeL", "createdTime": 1647127617920, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

True

Kv7WbfqWdX6K6hd94tvy

lottery-ca927a402889

1507

Lottery

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.665407632173063

True

play

00f9021747b7

public

1647127889491

Undox

A lottery ticket costs 20. To play: add an answer and buy 20 in total. You can buy multiple tickets. Tickets with less than 20 bet are ignored. If the 20 is bet by multiple people that is ok. More than 20 is OK but doesn’t increase the chance. When this closes I declare then use a provably fair selection meth...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1647788043462

1139.9999999999993

Undox

1647127889491

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

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0

ANYONE

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1

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True

0.007941044288028389

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.007941044288028389

before-or-at-april-5th-2022-a-reput

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{"NO": 9888.168377545597, "YES": 247.57508216334895}

Before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source will confirm that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away

1649269470543

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 9920, "YES": 233}

0

4.620041183899864

True

play

NO

public

1647129087242

blank

This market resolves to "YES" if, before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source confirms that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away. It will resolve to "NO" if this is not confirmed. Note: this includes the situation where the Queen has, in fact, passed away, but the news is not confirmed at or before April 5th. ...

BINARY

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{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

0

1649269470543

100

abk

1647129087242

0

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0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471010}]

["politics-default"]

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0.007941044288028389

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7758832458044026

will-i-learn-about-an-unlimited-ver

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{"NO": 124, "YES": 273.01740773347126}

Will I learn about an unlimited version of Semantle within the next week?

1647759540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 124, "YES": 275}

0

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YES

public

1647131913065

Conflux

The official website for the game Semantle (semantle.novalis.org) limits you to one per day. However, the code is open source, so in theory it’d be pretty easy to make an unlimited version! This market resolves to YES if I hear about an unlimited version (maybe made by one of you!) within the next week. Otherwise, it ...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 187.9523695520968, "YES": 349.7106273177481}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

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100

Conflux

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{"NO": 90.1415187420649, "YES": 104.96637693702039}

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will-js-and-lr-stop-biting-their-fi

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{"NO": 253.3240519060996, "YES": 1175}

Will JS and LR stop biting their fingernails by April 18?

1650351540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 335, "YES": 1175}

0

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True

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NO

public

1647132899475

lippy

It's about time. We're grown adults for christ's sake. JB (third-party) will resolve this based on pictures and his own judgment.

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 771.5958164104201, "YES": 1201.9785147832301}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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lippy

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{"NO": 84.37556453485922, "YES": 165.98896997465454}

0.14731205093796573

will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo

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{"NO": 149.74338430341047, "YES": 69.62164194830375}

Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election)

1663277478122

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 150, "YES": 70}

0

3.7134891776000947

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647156964335

Account deletion requested

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question will be not resolved and there are three weeks with a new president", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- question is resolved and Dwayne Johnson in theory may still win election (even as write-in candidate o...

BINARY

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{"NO": 189.51147752136708, "YES": 110.48462952436476}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.652776620379051

will-global-average-temperatures-in

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{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}

Will global average temperatures in 2050 increase by at least 2.0°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900?

1647243855575

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}

0

4.962203626998809

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647157840174

Tasties

The 2021-2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 stud...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647243855575

100

Tasties

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.652776620379051

will-global-average-temperatures-in-f1b53df32489

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{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}

Will global average temperatures in 2100 increase by at least 2.7°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900?

1647243825539

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 70}

0

4.962203626998809

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647158147602

Tasties

The 2021-2022 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 stud...

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 96.95431914308925}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647243825539

100

Tasties

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{"NO": 129.96855754543512, "YES": 96.34771220804936}

1

in-july-2022-will-there-be-airplane

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{"NO": 53, "YES": 152}

In July 2022, will there be airplane tickets available to general public for less than $1000 from Moscow to any other country (except Belarus)?

1656998182519

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 53, "YES": 152}

0

5.86209414146779

True

play

YES

public

1647191869494

Jeremy Moonders

In July 2022, will there be airplane tickets available to general public for less than $1000 from Moscow to any other country (except Belarus)? The market resolves Yes if at least 1 such ticket is available, and the plane lands successfully in the destination airport in July 2022.

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 75.86241493981062, "YES": 190.44764109985712}

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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1656998182519

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JeremyMoonders

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505060}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575575}]

["politics-default", "economics-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6906239687542969

haas-will-finish-ahead-of-williams

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{"NO": 82.5, "YES": 117.5}

Haas will finish ahead of Williams in Bahrain

1647752340000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 82.5, "YES": 117.5}

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YES

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1647202613917

Dustin

Resolves to YES if either Haas car finishes ahead of both Williams cars.

BINARY

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{"NO": 111.24371892628366, "YES": 166.20840833258106}

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{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

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Dustin

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0

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0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396946}]

["sports-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.2665294515457959

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{"NO": 77.5, "YES": 32.5}

McLaren will finish ahead of Ferrari in Bahrain

1647752340000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 77.5, "YES": 32.5}

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4.988396119230901

True

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NO

public

1647202957028

Dustin

Resolves to YES if either McLaren car finishes ahead of both Ferrari cars.

BINARY

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{"NO": 94.20804106099436, "YES": 56.78965575217022}

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{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}

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100

Dustin

1647202957028

0

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1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402680}]

["sports-default"]

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0.6167577467240093

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6167577467240093

will-a-manifold-markets-dev-do-anot

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{"NO": 95, "YES": 608}

Will a Manifold Markets dev do another coding livestream by Mar 23?

1647519253575

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 95, "YES": 608}

0

4.683781564029401

True

play

YES

public

1647207186093

Gurkenglas

@Austin did this just now on the Discord and let's hope it happens again! And mana is the unit of hope. Mar 16, 2:53pm: Argh, it was at 3:15 am for me!

BINARY

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{"NO": 107.0989729199118, "YES": 694.7950892173174}

{"creatorFee": 3.8000000000000043, "platformFee": 0.9500000000000011, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

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1647519253575

100

Gurkenglas

1647207186093

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9376902845564921

will-cherson-be-under-the-control-o

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{"NO": 180.80700623567824, "YES": 1534.4558218250602}

Will Cherson be under the control of Russian forces as of March 31, 2022?

1648699140000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 182.1, "YES": 1535.9}

0

4.6438455151263245

True

play

YES

public

1647210659816

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to Yes if Cherson remains under control of Russian forces. If it is contested or if the Russians withdraw from the city, this market resolves to No. Mar 13, 6:54pm: I mean the Cherson in Ukraine, captured by the Russians in early March. Mar 13, 6:58pm: "What if it is under the control of some "Pe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 428.16268297071923, "YES": 1660.9655977066152}

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{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

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1648740568679

100

EnopoletusHarding

1647210659816

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

18

1715658523179

0

1

1648523081499

0.9376902845564921

0.7170356436405454

MKboykub4ciTzQp8u94Z

{"NO": 209.33838724520945, "YES": 196.1999037105228}

0.7299999999999994

will-tesla-commercialize-a-cobaltfr

167.79129658991016

{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 70}

Will Tesla Commercialize a Cobalt-free Nickel Cathode?

1893567540000

qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 70}

1.539095918623324e-15

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1647214144962

Jasper Woodard

This market resolves yes upon commercialization of a Tesla vehicle with a cobalt-free nickel cathode (excludes LFP technology). Mar 13, 5:29pm: Alternatively resolves no on January 1st, 2030.

BINARY

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{"NO": 54.77280347307411, "YES": 83.6668393134341}

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200

JasperWoodard

1710451917144

0.1

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1650314549833

0

3

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["science-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.09168332430592861

1704921969589

n8MXvFIv696jBKM0vLN4

who-will-win-the-west-region-of-the

428

Who will win the West region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?

1648349982552

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.824523225244017

True

play

38a79a0834ff

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1647217564033

CompmanJX3

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1648349982552

440

CompmanJX3

1647217564033

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c

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0

ANYONE

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{"38a79a0834ff": 100}

True

sZG3waRwGGnJ2fXwXs4U

who-will-win-the-south-region-of-th

223.7042436531894

Who will win the South region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?

1648340338439

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.943772987449664

True

play

2e7b1197978a

public

1647217715832

CompmanJX3

The winner of the South region of this year's tournament

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1648340338439

459.99999999999994

CompmanJX3

1647217715832

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ANYONE

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{"2e7b1197978a": 100}

True

ezqtM5q1hFfUeZCLy08L

who-will-win-the-midwest-region-of

308.1213852111091

Who will win the Midwest region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?

1648416523165

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.812044520772527

True

play

8c286baa1345

public

1647217966650

CompmanJX3

The winner of the Midwest region of this year's tournament

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1648416523165

520

CompmanJX3

1647217966650

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c

5

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ANYONE

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{"8c286baa1345": 100}

True

wqOScBx3cUFkrZOKPcac

who-will-win-the-east-region-of-the

1002.4095690211101

Who will win the East region of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?

1648428344095

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.679328037863149

True

play

67cd83dbec5f

public

1647218136222

CompmanJX3

The winner of the East region of this year's tournament

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.3386599394127314, "platformFee": 0.8346649848531829, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648428344095

640

CompmanJX3

1647218136222

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

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1647712462183

{"67cd83dbec5f": 100}

True

0.05094640103822926

Cvn3dB5NTsAtZ47LFfwL

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05094640103822926

will-china-send-weapons-to-russia-f

1553.3601437750597

{"NO": 1156, "YES": 126.63985622494033}

Will China send weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war?

1649912340000

WE5DNftrk8fnnNqslKOGeSl5Ut03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1156, "YES": 125}

0

4.653347354820402

True

play

NO

public

1647220740399

jw

This market resolves to "NO" if there is very little evidence that China has provided weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, and resolves to "YES" if there is clear evidence that this has happened before April 13. Clear evidence could include statements by the Chinese or Russian governments, or visual evidence ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1249.540795437267, "YES": 289.50883681754914}

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{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}

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1649945212338

100

jw

1647220740399

0

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1715657774742

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[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560023}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227215}]

["china", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1647281210931

False

0.05094640103822926

0.22440727265136984

dpUwuBlb6zW6OiLeGG2A

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.22440727265136984

will-i-finish-my-pending-work-task

131

{"NO": 75, "YES": 56}

Will I finish my pending work task today?

1647248340000

WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 75, "YES": 56}

0

4.937367224021218

True

play

YES

public

1647221127687

Anna

This is a task that I expect may take 1-3 hours, which I've been meaning to do for weeks and not finding time to finish. I told a coworker I'd do it this week and really want to finish it today. I'm also trying to get some other stuff done this evening, but it's mostly lower priority. I'm also having some technical iss...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 115.36962338544753, "YES": 62.057328341622956}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}

0

1647248497139

100

tcheasdfjkl

1647221127687

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c

7

1715658473162

0

1647246397603

0.22440727265136984

0.8973202696882493

dT51s2ktlkhpTchGWM5d

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8973202696882493

will-someone-give-100-to-charity-in

5472.6200922854805

{"NO": 702, "YES": 4565.3799077145195}

Will someone give $100 to charity in honor of this market?

1647367606153

FX8JTczvl7NejJmqB4DVO5NgR1X2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 702, "YES": 4596}

0

4.6245672383350644

True

play

YES

public

1647225056655

Bayesian Philosopher

This market resolves YES if someone donates $100 (USD) in real money (or the equivalent in any other real world currency) that they might have not otherwise given, to a charity of their choice, and then says in the comments that they have done so. Proof would be (highly) appreciated, but is not required. Saying the n...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1687.86257985476, "YES": 4989.631403067912}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1647367606153

100

BayesianPhilosopher

1647225056655

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwhr0P01elPDQx93GRYMErBtr8HdMixiP1N8p1v=s96-c

13

1715658467197

0

1647339696788

0.8973202696882493

0.010000000000000002

Q9ebkTiLbYAHFLeTwW5f

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.010000000000000002

what-percent-increase-in-traffic-ac

41

{"NO": 39.8, "YES": 1.2}

What percent increase in traffic accidents will Madge find due to DST?

1647274500673

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 39.8, "YES": 1.2}

0

5.405752894692882

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647225925168

Daniel Reeves

This is in a particular jurisdiction in Australia where daylight savings time was tried for 3 years. So it should be a pretty good natural experiment. Idea is to get car crash data for the 2 weeks after the spring forward / fall back date, comparing 3 years when DST happened vs 3 years when it didn't. Mar 13, 7:45pm: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 40.44848082425346, "YES": 6.70838281629783}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}

0

1647274500673

100

dreev

1647225925168

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

3

1715658135094

0

[{"name": "Timekeeping", "slug": "timekeeping", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "lzFlyshFYiEU1Q7Cj1Jj", "createdTime": 1673373805724}]

["timekeeping"]

0.010000000000000002

0.0634172043368388

BFpKG4xXkeFFxVpIMv6B

{"NO": 118.86049714280784, "YES": 147.9071052784202}

0

will-the-russian-ruble-rub-fall-bel-5d81e343d186

195.73471789456292

{"NO": 85.657307904589, "YES": 12.3}

Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.001 by December 31, 2022?

1672559940000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

{"NO": 85.7, "YES": 12.3}

0

8.755881969204905

True

play

NO

public

1647226327750

Oleg S

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00100 at any time between March 13, 2022, and the resolution time of December 31, 2022, 23:59, and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&vi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 94.77418965078812, "YES": 24.77262730448089}

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{"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029}

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1672567708917

120.2616619392656

OlegStroganov

1672380730455

0

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1650313839097

0

1

12

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["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1672380729240

False

0.05

0.26632310390945685

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.26632310390945685

will-i-reach-level-1-on-every-lesso

95

{"NO": 55.032252125248206, "YES": 38}

Will I reach level 1 on every lesson of the Duolingo Ukrainian course in March?

1648789439004

WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72

cpmm-1

{"NO": 55, "YES": 38}

0

5.043370236550943

True

play

YES

public

1647240408639

Anna

I started the course on March 1st and currently have reached level 1 for 28 of 51 units, but my progress slows down over time because occasionally I go back to the beginning and do a review of everything I've learned so far, and every time I do that there's more to review and it does longer. (Also, now that I need to t...

BINARY

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{"NO": 79.68757745282511, "YES": 48.01120703231694}

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{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

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1648789439004

100

tcheasdfjkl

1647240408639

0

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4

1715658687504

0

1648153014271

0.26632310390945685

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what-should-i-name-my-cat

824.2995420907957

What should I name my cat?

1672549140000

rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.700106453348402

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play

MKT

public

1647280236788

cos

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My partner and I are getting a cat soon, and we need help picking a name! She's a feisty stray, less than a year old, scooped up off the street by a friend of a friend. I will choose the answer based on whichever is ranked highest, on average, afte...

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-the-us-experience-a-recession

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{"NO": 1073.2353832709903, "YES": 959.9706135232534}

Will the US experience a recession in 2022?

1648749540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 1101, "YES": 966}

0

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play

NO

public

1647280833094

Rahul Sridhar

This market resolves to YES if the NBER states that a recession began sometime in 2022, and NO otherwise.

BINARY

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{"NO": 1561.5284800070071, "YES": 1302.1365127896818}

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{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}

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fortenforge

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-good-judgment-write-a-hit-piec

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Will Good Judgment write a hit piece against Samotsvety or Arb in the next three months?

1647921540000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 251, "YES": 140}

0

4.736992339126219

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play

YES

public

1647288312230

Nuño Sempere

After https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022, and in addition, after the high praise these pieces received from Scott Alexander https://astralcod...

BINARY

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{"NO": 347.03944568154327, "YES": 167.33284196684164}

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{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}

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1648298794553

100

NuñoSempere

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1715657998202

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1647353041804

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what-will-the-fee-structure-of-mani

1642.389188484885

What will the fee structure of Manifold's CFMM be in a week?

1647838740000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.704607897781993

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play

MKT

public

1647291869283

SG

Assuming we launch our new fixed-payout constant-function market maker for binary markets this week, what will the fee structure look like a week afterward? We probably want to charge 3 different fees: a liquidity fee (which will go into the liquidity pool to subsidize trading), a commission for the market creator (to...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1647882247786

520.0000000000001

SG

1647291869283

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

6

0

ANYONE

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1

1647619203945

{"64cae34c8512": 50, "c3de4d0e86d1": 50}

True

0.020888769446270467

jrICxvgMBljaDCdLW8T3

{"NO": 95.84250480257381, "YES": 895.424900471988}

0

will-kyiv-fall-to-russian-forces-by-c1a307db6c8b

1277.3493897126023

{"NO": 284.3783001821325, "YES": 24.812329476875163}

Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by May 2022, conditional on it not falling by April, 2022?

1651204740000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 286, "YES": 20}

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1647295172137

Jenny

This market resolves N/A if https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-to-russian-forces-by resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves YES if Kyiv falls by May 1, 2022 and NO otherwise (using similar criteria to the Metaculus question). This market is a response to https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monda...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 305.94022921314695, "YES": 44.721806763591296}

{"creatorFee": 0.27534893112802117, "platformFee": 0.05129715458089537, "liquidityFee": 0.21048093841331914}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1662828717828

100.21048093841331

Jenny

1662832876414

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

14

1650314729957

0

1

16

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779960673}]

["please-resolve"]

1662832870407

0.0022783435493668684

0.11742581336884725

cmJtnagmrLEnnvbK5KsF

{"NO": 139.83310821365575, "YES": 9.086079132625539}

1

will-there-be-enough-eag-london-aft

297

{"NO": 194, "YES": 63}

Will there be enough EAG London afterparties?

1650478426348

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

{"NO": 194, "YES": 63}

0

7.392708301133868

True

play

YES

public

1647303531751

Nathan Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 242.29813866474504, "YES": 85.6803711511569}

{"creatorFee": 1.00135071806553, "platformFee": 0.16689178634425503, "liquidityFee": 1.00135071806553}

{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}

0

1650478426348

101.00135071806554

NathanpmYoung

1647303531751

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

7

1650314674557

0

1650204309310

0.6718733205225721

0.9852492055652193

OjTShVuBvRlJknDaVSKI

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9852492055652193

will-aleksandar-vucic-win-the-2022

143

{"NO": 2.1, "YES": 136.9}

Will Aleksandar Vučić win the 2022 Serbian presidential election?

1648958340000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 2.1, "YES": 136.9}

0

4.921443048700164

True

play

YES

public

1647310805012

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to "yes" if Aleksandar Vučić wins the 2022 Serbian presidential election. It resolves to "no" if he loses. Close date updated to 2022-04-02 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 16.88206740923635, "YES": 137.97200368549412}

{"creatorFee": 0.0840000000000002, "platformFee": 0.02100000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1649020754572

100

EnopoletusHarding

1647310805012

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

3

1715658086577

0

1

0.9852492055652193

0.07295005128255641

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.07295005128255641

dont-bet-just-testing-if-you-bet-i

521.0028090509363

{"NO": 163.99719094906365, "YES": 5}

Don't bet. Just testing. If you bet, I pull rug.

1647315481462

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 105, "YES": 10}

0

4.920432524326845

True

play

NO

public

1647311820713

Undox

Just wanting to learn a bit amount market maths

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 134.35106996410562, "YES": 37.68793681611265}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647315481462

100

Undox

1647311820713

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

1715658515173

0

1647315631288

0.07295005128255641

fgnPli7CXWqgn2iim90H

who-is-the-identity-of-the-silver-c

150

Who is the identity of the Silver Controller in Filters?

1648450740000

hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.901971679398953

True

play

411bb4dc86cb

public

1647320661450

Jacob

At the end of Filters chapter 21, a mystery controller addresses Andrew by name and reveals his face; Andrew knows the name that goes with it. Who is it? https://www.royalroad.com/fiction/46032/filters/chapter/862362/21-cloud-generator This will resolve when Filters chapter 22 is published, or a later chapter if jakef...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648578499798

240

JiSK

1647320661450

0

https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bc3c418425c2", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 95.40556703999101, "userId": "hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 119.25695879998878, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fgnPli7CXWqgn2iim90H", "createdTime": 1647320661604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

{"411bb4dc86cb": 100}

True

0.5

yQCGW9IqHutoAwQMkUAE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

when-will-appveyorcom-stop-showing

14.000000000000004

{"NO": 4.999999999999998, "YES": 4.999999999999998}

When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in?

1647379290690

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647322179175

Undox

The service shows the Ukrainian colours in the header when you are logged in. Will they stop? When? If 2022, then resolves to PROB based on the month March 2022 = 0, April 2022 = 10, etc. Jan 2023 = Resolves YES This is what I call an "expander market". This means it starts with just 10M to gauge interest. Ask me an...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1647379290690

100

Undox

1647322179175

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

1715658949669

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513186}]

["politics-default"]

1647379216209

0.5

0.14999999999999997

zjKxA56DGtYtSaHWBpkp

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.14999999999999997

will-i-use-bitcoin-to-buy-something

10

{"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5}

Will I use Bitcoin to buy something IRL in March 2022

1647379275872

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

{"NO": 8.5, "YES": 1.5}

0

6.366309919943205

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647323088240

Undox

I have a Bitcoin app with a small amount of money on it as an experiment. I want to see if I can buy a coffee or lunch or something. Rules are I will keep an eye out for Bitcoin payment, but I won't make a special trip or search online. I live in a suburban area outside of a big city. Places that I have seen online ten...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 9.220466411738617, "YES": 3.8733706445420375}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}

0

1647379275872

100

Undox

1647323088240

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

1715658976725

0

0.14999999999999997

0.9143968481292368

XTM3zdswE9tMSL8g2JDk

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9143968481292368

will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili

3091.678039849257

{"NO": 655.2675612309508, "YES": 2129.054398919792}

Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 100 readers by the end of April, 2022?

1648037702772

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 655, "YES": 2142}

0

4.632915701859925

True

play

YES

public

1647346781951

Patrick Delaney

The number of readers shows up on the landing page below the book cover on the left, I'm currently at 10 as of first posting this. Here is a free code for Manifold users: https://leanpub.com/probabilityforlemurs/c/6OMiYNaqgAj6_manifold * I'm a first time author, to quote another person on Manifold, I'm basically jus...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 814.6376659521522, "YES": 2662.483768895995}

{"creatorFee": 26.25721365371317, "platformFee": 6.564303413428292, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}

0

1648037702772

100

PatrickDelaney

1647346781951

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

16

1715658293107

0

1647991109790

0.9143968481292368

0.7749002830561903

DB152AicEFIQue9X04Yn

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7749002830561903

will-i-do-36-pushups-per-day-for-th

366.7874477286611

{"NO": 48.21255227133889, "YES": 249}

Will I do ≥36 pushups per day for the next week?

1647910740000

ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 53, "YES": 249}

0

4.77036774176977

True

play

NO

public

1647351421898

Blazer

Pushup commitment . . . 2! [fist-pump leap] As with last time, This market resolves YES if I do at least 36 pushups each day until next Monday, inclusive. Doing more than 36 pushups on a given day does not count towards any other day's total. Pushups done after midnight but before I go to bed count towards the "prev...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.01200341686007, "YES": 261.6323958268764}

{"creatorFee": 9.96, "platformFee": 2.49, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.00010000000000000005, "YES": 0.00099498743710662}

0

1647913844191

100

BlazingDarkness

1647351421898

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c

10

1715657776772

0

1

0.7749002830561903

0.35802359393507255

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{"NO": 94.97988563577243, "YES": 109.67533529837294}

0.32567504622357707

will-i-go-to-the-tcity-for-june-202

55

{"NO": 30, "YES": 15}

will i go to the t-city for june 2022?

1656629880000

nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 30, "YES": 15}

0

3.0183321474983416

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647371058317

.

i finish uni in less than one month and flight tickets are cheap right now, but i have work and assignments to do and now i do not have the money to rent a place and travel there huh. but i would love to go and if i organise myself great the next two months probably ill be there by may/june.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 36.056344806427624, "YES": 26.92638111963804}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

0

1702108859118

100

DG

1702108855777

0

https://firebasestorage.…5a4-2e7749002f0d

3

1650314793459

0

1

4

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072294}]

["please-resolve"]

1656462726415

1702108855126

0.33

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.27366504697040117

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{"NO": 135.81574561543812, "YES": 6648.010350932313}

0

will-the-us-make-daylight-savings-t

54720.739191677516

{"NO": 1108.744295505347, "YES": 2309.2395876576447}

Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?

1704076271968

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1178, "YES": 2254}

0.11081841767117585

2.036712025430526

True

play

NO

public

1647373462309

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 2052.8775926771755, "YES": 2732.821664692867}

{"creatorFee": 26.156222874975906, "platformFee": 2.2911062991302926, "liquidityFee": 9.258808216735407}

{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}

0

1704076271968

430.01925488756774

dreev

1704076336118

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

2

239

1650314732106

0

2

90

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502543}, {"name": "Timekeeping", "slug": "timekeeping", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "lzFlyshFYiEU1Q7Cj1Jj", "createdTime": 1673373805724}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "...

["politics-default", "timekeeping", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17738880997907477

1704076140514

1704076331096

0.01

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0.16034943705092056

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{"NO": 106.60328136008731, "YES": 2015.4620432688776}

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will-manifold-markets-make-a-for-te

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{"NO": 82.70060974433, "YES": 201.49056046387324}

Will Manifold Markets make a "for teams" version in 2022

1672577940000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 17, "YES": 262}

0

4.184198691945352

True

play

NO

public

1647378780651

Undox

A teams version is a private version of MM, probably with paid licenses for teams at work to make predictions about things. Staff of a company share and bet on their private markets. A use case might be "will we make our first Canada sale this quarter?" or "How many new programmers can we hire?". A great way for a com...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 63.99670031027266, "YES": 276.8927806156126}

{"creatorFee": 3.333969139668267, "platformFee": 0.6875417162142341, "liquidityFee": 0.4444731947328787}

{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}

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1673156187738

320.4444731947329

Undox

1672636946414

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

27

1650313811158

0

2

26

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4...

["predictions-on-predictions"]

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1672636943025

0.01

3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj

when-will-appveyorcom-stop-showing-1919170cd3ab

491.21648129727964

When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in?

1735736340000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1647379400124

Undox

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will appveyor.com stop showing the Ukrainian flag colours when you are logged in? Please add answers in the format of the month in which you think it will happen. E.g. \"JAN 2023\". Answers for longer/shorter ranges will be ignored. Duplicates...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7705132306008409, "platformFee": 0.19262830765021022, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

800.0000000000003

Undox

1708501582761

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b058ad3d4b41", "prob": 0.15805182072642723, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.695693818428878, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.014143099911216, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3r6AAbXOZxObS9BJbrYj", "createdTime": 1647379400325, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8419481792...

7

6

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469017}]

["politics-default"]

1708501582591

1702130471578

True

0.5304287574505188

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{"NO": 4.203452722150692, "YES": 47.89915625646973}

0

will-manifold-markets-save-your-scr

184

Will manifold markets save your scrolling position on your browser when using the back button by June 1st 2022?

1654066740000

EbiS7JpmUFhavoZGRBWr1GR2hyz1

cpmm-1

0

8.453519153268676

True

play

NO

public

1647384263034

Sam Cree

I'm hoping for this feature to be implemented as it is in many other social media sites - otherwise once I click on a market, I've lost my place in the feed.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.6776836923621317, "platformFee": 0.6071530617480355, "liquidityFee": 2.6776836923621317}

0

1654071197236

12.677683692362129

SamCree

1653865249295

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx4wdMGwibL0x43ODCew_1ZoPm-BZCnkhbsrNUJ=s96-c

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0

1

0.5

1653865247940

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{"NO": 1268.604025416058, "YES": 192.77196550445666}

1

will-this-market-complete-at-least

7830

Will this market complete at least 10 cycles between 50% and 25%?

1647730607598

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

0.9930807149061165

True

play

YES

public

1647385361045

Gurkenglas

I'll count the times this market's rounded/displayed probability goes to 25% and back to 50%. This resolves YES if the count reaches 10, and NO if the market closes before that. Mar 16, 12:13am: That's 7! Mar 16, 12:13am: If the probability displayed on the screen at the top is at most 25 and later it is at least 50 ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 146.59691836425534, "platformFee": 35.02618598346681, "liquidityFee": 146.59691836425534}

0

1647730607598

346.59691836425543

Gurkenglas

1647385361045

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

14

0

0.5

1647725725788

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{"NO": 8.568651718650962, "YES": 138.88430061758868}

0

will-my-five-year-old-open-her-last

252.68449260884356

Will my five year old open her last Christmas present before her half-birthday?

1649746740000

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

7.445669043235776

True

play

NO

public

1647388309933

Alicorn

My five year old has chosen to leave one of her Christmas presents unopened, in her toy box. She has resisted some (gentle) suggestions to open the present. If she hasn't opened it by her half-birthday, April 12, I'll present it (no pun intended) among the half-birthday festivities. I'm not going to try that hard to...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.569108291982069, "platformFee": 0.4539532134149577, "liquidityFee": 2.569108291982069}

0

1649781848076

22.54575537713354

Alicorn

1647388309933

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

10

0

1

0.4

0.037494735048041794

0.2307113323140676

28EwXhVszXx4AZnaY7bD

{"NO": 800.0055830519643, "YES": 2860.703643937833}

0

in-the-glowfic-continuity-planecras

2702.1763991814414

In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps?

1651272433741

ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3

cpmm-1

0

0.5551816519543968

True

basic

NO

public

1647393213276

John Beshir

This market resolves to YES if in the glowfic continuity "planecrash", one of the conspirators in Project Lawful deliberately reveals the conspiracy to Keltham, attempts to do so, or is removed from the project or has their participation in the project reduced (e.g. removed from classes but remaining on site) in order ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 36.67255182476768, "platformFee": 7.222227636531983, "liquidityFee": 36.67255182476768}

0

1651272433741

1036.6725518247677

jbeshir

1647393213276

0

https://firebasestorage.…93c-41811dc09182

14

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390508}]

["glowfic"]

0.23

1651272126789

1651272135461

0.1781869320679219

0.4925135129491215

atkBQghx0gBvfcLT16l8

{"NO": 3.594649273417791, "YES": 35.31495214304618}

1

a-player-has-acidic-slime-in-their

40

A player has Acidic Slime in their graveyard. Gamekeeper dies, and they use its ability, putting Volrath's Shapeshifter onto the battlefield and a Forest into their graveyard. Do they get to destroy something?

1647457200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.471222202354012

True

play

YES

public

1647395253324

Isaac King

Mar 16, 12:06pm: Interesting, people got this one wrong. Gamekeeper's instructions are followed in order, so the Shapeshifter is put onto the battlefield first, at which point it triggers, and then the Forest is put into the graveyard.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.546790205819395, "platformFee": 0.13669755145484874, "liquidityFee": 0.546790205819395}

0

1647457875859

10.546790205819395

IsaacKing

1647395253324

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

3

0

0.5

0.01

0.39881883818263375

2hfREKSqnTY6CnIX0AYA

{"NO": 77.03932329640531, "YES": 154.8398998372143}

1

will-the-temperature-in-my-office-r

55

Will the temperature in my office reach 24 Celsius before the weekend?

1647648000000

287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3

cpmm-1

0

2.91507521719352

True

play

YES

public

1647395443688

Rick

I have a device in my office that records temperature 24 hrs/day. Will it record a temperature of at least 24 Celsius before Friday at 5pm PDT? I will do my best not to disturb the sensor or do anything unusual. I have not touched it in a couple weeks and I do not anticipate needing to do so this week. If I have stron...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.884470591260222, "platformFee": 0.16010016278570754, "liquidityFee": 0.884470591260222}

0

1647650803232

100.88447059126023

meefburger

1647395443688

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c

2

0

1

0.4

1647613960434

0.2481572184902533

0.8939067769062473

7LFZ4xm4jSQRLsJcVxr1

{"NO": 226.60584075171417, "YES": 608.8474340489671}

1

will-russia-default-on-its-debt-in

1112.5843079724907

Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?

1649524608340

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.8423128132136268

True

play

YES

public

1647397192410

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10282/will-russia-default-on-its-debt-in-2022/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.74930532249275, "platformFee": 4.40713244277736, "liquidityFee": 21.74930532249275}

0

1649524608340

519.1566587052096

MetaculusBot

1647397192410

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

13

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372204}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223812}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.9

1647566764660

False

0.7582167679565566

0.8322729233251746

oUabbzZK3pLN1dhty2BY

{"NO": 15316.696588610843, "YES": 345.0860724112981}

1

will-russia-be-the-worlds-most-sanc

21804.727777562002

Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?

1677041940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

1.4157674192036502

True

play

YES

public

1647397356576

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/ Close date updated to 2023-02-21 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 79.71406107101859, "platformFee": 10.633550101630782, "liquidityFee": 56.17804098264526}

0

1677116745559

793.9560764322158

MetaculusBot

1677099551288

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

44

0

1

44

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420923}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016314769}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": ...

["world-default", "global-macro", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.59

1677037299128

1677099548518

False

1

0.29978245601252623

ibX4ekJgSAyxFOpKxS1R

{"NO": 178.7927939762479, "YES": 14398.385638116875}

0

will-kyiv-fall-before-2023

20887.78408055132

Will Kyiv fall before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.4917631998176466

True

play

NO

public

1647397475888

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10269/kyiv-fall-before-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 67.9131205548667, "platformFee": 8.35715083528123, "liquidityFee": 46.85931046307342}

0

1672697850703

693.4413570910406

MetaculusBot

1671513564903

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

64

0

1

62

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420318}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370514}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war",...

["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.48

1671513564800

1661613820073

False

0.01

0.14688027381490498

onULUHPWLGhTkzQsD0CD

{"NO": 440.7725950253183, "YES": 1380.0015161555002}

0.05212426182417879

will-russia-purposely-disconnect-fr

1377.3344334110393

Will Russia purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.4576615246931626

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647397559834

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10121/russia-disconnects-from-internet-by-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673754215157

521.8057633146518

MetaculusBot

1672084471944

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

13

0

3

14

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670142179}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371388}, {"name"...

["please-resolve", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.15

1672084471784

False

0.05

0.5506677746931218

x1TIxXbvP3hHzep0hA11

{"NO": 12.876191560248454, "YES": 18.766141447410092}

1

will-my-cash-register-be-over-the-e

13

Will my cash register be over the expected count at the end of my shift?

1647457200000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

8.048645883421809

True

play

YES

public

1647403180444

Em ✨

Cashiering morning shift. Sometimes people leave behind their change, or I make mistakes.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.42200012547246935, "platformFee": 0.10550003136811734, "liquidityFee": 0.42200012547246935}

0

1647487697840

15.422000125472469

hamnox

1647403180444

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

3

0

1

0.55

0.4567818341769737

0.3702899173847242

855rZW9QdP0Ls79GbP63

{"NO": 69.91577516767138, "YES": 0.38116157679727003}

1

will-someone-buy-one-of-my-incorrec

60

Will someone buy one of my incorrect laptop stickers in the next week?

1647450613769

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

9.46336360287141

True

play

YES

public

1647406401548

Em ✨

Printed a bunch for my programming friends, intending to sell them at $2. Forgot to advertise, a rather crucial step lol. Resolves yes if someone with a US address sends me $2 about this or I accept a different offer. image here, not all of them are properly cut out yet: https://photos.app.goo.gl/9cirLwtk4zD81TYK8

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3368993293145003, "platformFee": 0.08422483232862507, "liquidityFee": 0.3368993293145003}

0

1647450613769

10.3368993293145

hamnox

1657733128579

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

6

0

0.33

1657733127122

0.9908140337119193

d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB

how-will-the-conspiracy-be-revealed

69.67207945142653

How will the conspiracy be revealed to Keltham?

1648969140000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.263241107428642

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647412338565

Em ✨

Resolves N/A if Keltham is still unaware, or it's ambiguous whether he's really discovered the core andor extent of Cheliax's lies, by close date. Preference generally given to more precise guesses. If multiple answers apply I will try to credit a reasonable percentage correctness. If some answers have clear overlap b...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.026883178057061342, "platformFee": 0.006720794514265336, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1651844272983

680

hamnox

1651795715632

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "22b546211d0f", "prob": 0.03388081395797487, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.46528261503154755, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.267640555252246, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d520O4Mu5QMyPhcfpwgB", "createdTime": 1647412338768, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

1651795711970

True

0.24190117700347832

rdRPdKSPxqbWkqv1aoM0

{"NO": 44.43326642534519, "YES": 123.40194161560375}

0

will-any-project-lawful-girl-break

446

Will any project lawful girl “break” in the next week?

1649487540000

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-1

0

5.656098228402101

True

play

NO

public

1647414941921

April

Resolves positive if any of the three markets on this topic described in https://glowfic.com/posts/5694?page=58 resolve positive. If we never hear about the resolution of those markets, I’ll use my best judgment (leaning towards N/A if there’s any ambiguity.) Close date updated to 2022-04-08 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.421485306331493, "platformFee": 0.5778120918250705, "liquidityFee": 3.421485306331493}

0

1652239584695

53.42148530633149

April

1647414941921

0

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

13

0

1

0.25

1649445883154

0.10305396826728332

0.424467059859859

VaLg9U8w553wgzB0flaf

{"NO": 1114.5625618413217, "YES": 3.8700556877281436}

0.9953140345383692

test-b441e0ce65de

1077

test

1647438675665

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

5.651036502639724

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647437114296

Gurkenglas

Mar 16, 2:51pm: The dev instance URL is pointing to production! What a mess.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.158969350463802, "platformFee": 0.7897423376159505, "liquidityFee": 3.158969350463802}

0

1647438675665

103.15896935046379

Gurkenglas

1647437114297

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

1

0

True

[{"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691178564492}]

["india"]

0.4

False

0.4520676377084375

0.24802835159868514

topFehd2KHMsWCuRhOX3

{"NO": 91.76964981853004, "YES": 221.5938906818684}

0

will-the-most-traded-open-market-on

558

Will the most traded open market on April 2nd be whale bait?

1648915140000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

3.466776865918834

True

play

NO

public

1647437206135

Duncn

Will the open market listed at the top of Market page when sorted by 'most traded' be a market that can have the outcome manipulated through on-site investment in $M? This includes markets like this one, the outcome of which depends on manipulated markets; most derivative markets (e.g., will market X be at 70% on day...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.21019327267877, "platformFee": 1.972972648765716, "liquidityFee": 9.21019327267877}

0

1648989828082

109.21019327267877

Duncn

1647437206135

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

11

0

1

0.2

1648910881103

0.12018067742894212

0.052399429806037144

27lFeQhJrN199gBJ6wGF

{"NO": 955.8817763417089, "YES": 1672.9231691899354}

0.03062808657964709

will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside

1316.4165207726576

Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born post 1980

1734069540000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1647437932690

Scott Owens

Under article II of the constitution the minimum age requirement to be POTUS is 35. In 2024 a person born in 1980 would be 44 years old. This market will resolve upon the results of the 2024 presidential election

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0009629797878643286}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.4401011694245165, "platformFee": 1.6466439597023346, "liquidityFee": 7.257510808947202}

0

1000

ScottOwens

1718109539094

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

1

24

0

22

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870162}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467538}, {"name": "Sco...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"]

0.25

1718109535899

1647439299306

False

0.48887085910981365

WmHqpR2EgL1eTAAT3d1f

{"NO": 37.642805460153966, "YES": 323.60578650104253}

0.10011854193557257

will-manifold-markets-adjust-the-m2

279

Will Manifold Markets adjust the M$20 loan to require some small percentage of buy-in in order to reduce long shot $M20 bets clogging the odds, by April 30th 2022?

1647455299115

ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13

cpmm-1

0

3.1788988989478026

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647440265058

Nick Allen

This market resolves to "Yes" if MM stops allowing no-cost loans by the end of April in order to disincentivize long shot, high payout free bets from messing up the long odds questions. Otherwise resolves to "No"

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.954862761088521, "platformFee": 0.9887156902721302, "liquidityFee": 3.954862761088521}

0

1647455299115

103.9548627610885

NickAllen

1647440265058

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1

6

0

0.5

1647455061968

0.37644854842782377

0.897538035915458

roaiUgvr0F1XZC2oUpca

{"NO": 1855.976684761693, "YES": 873.1263024179791}

0.9490322635334766

will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-3563a1248720

1745.3851965415492

Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White?

1734328740000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.282596639183769

False

basic

public

1647441318315

Scott Owens

The United States elected it's first non white president in 2008 with Barack Obama. Will the United States do it again in 2024 Mar 17, 12:28am: Just so we are clear this also includes White Hispanic/Latinos Mar 17, 3:47pm: Whatever race the victor self-identifies as is what is used for the purpose of this market.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006479720803440947}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.750523607012719, "platformFee": 2.4969510430896165, "liquidityFee": 5.973740829061534}

0

1000

ScottOwens

1719164548176

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

40

0

16

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046819}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507630}, {"name": "Sco...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"]

0.4

1719164545070

1680663399560

False

0.5

wZNO8RHahW4DOaRLoFKZ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-all-that-is-solid-hit-1250-fre

0

Will All That is Solid hit 1250 free subscribers by the 1st of January 2023?

1664058744170

vpUKQAVSO1TNHrsAIfw5izIfEu03

cpmm-1

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1647441370875

Sam Atis

I have a substack called All That is Solid (can be found at https://atis.substack.com). I am currently at 471 free subscribers, the blog has been operating seriously since November 16th 2021. The question resolves positively if I hit 1250 free subscribers at any point before the 1st of January, even if the number dips ...

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Will I love CFMM in one month?

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Em ✨

Followup to a discord comment. N/A if the market maker changes again, or the UI is not updated to better reflect the internal changes. [8:42 AM] Austin: Yeah our API hasn't yet been updated to make CFMM look good - something we'll look to fixing soon! [8:59 AM] hamnox: I bet I will love it once I get my head around wh...

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hamnox

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explain-cpfm-market-math-geometrica

110

Explain CPFM market math geometrically.

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Jenny

I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same. Mar 16, 1:28pm: I can't spell

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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ANYONE

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explain-cfmm-market-math-geometrica

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Explain CFMM market math geometrically.

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Jenny

I will buy answers that improve my understanding of market math, in particular that which MM uses or will use. Feel free to do the same. Close date updated to 2022-03-30 11:59 pm Mar 23, 4:19pm: Extending by a week because I don't find any of the responses are particularly enlightening and I hope someone gives a bett...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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is-it-socially-acceptable-for-a-mar

287

Is it socially acceptable for a market creator to correct a market before resolving it?

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cpmm-1

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1647453170178

Isaac King

In the situation where a market is about to close at a number different from its current probability, is it ok for the creator to correct it right before closing? (Where "ok" means "the community isn't going to be upset at that person or more reluctant to bid in their future markets".) Does it depend on whether the ma...

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1648075066602

56.1968801928366

IsaacKing

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0.09865123037801982

the-replacement-administrator-for-a-836f80cfb375

81

The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female. (Powered by CFMM)

1648529597904

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cpmm-1

0

2.0181931185094517

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CANCEL

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1647462834368

Undox

Resolves as per https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a This tuns on CFMM for smoother trading TM No bank runs. Less shenanigans hopefully! Mar 29, 3:51pm: No interest, very little bet. so freeing up my mana. Call my agent if you have any issues.

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Undox

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will-chelsea-manning-have-sex-with

3820.2775625533563

Will Chelsea Manning have sex with Elon Musk?

1679036340000

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cpmm-1

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1647463516297

Ellie High

This market resolves to "YES" if Chelsea Manning has had sex with Elon Musk. I will resolve this question using my own best judgement of whether this has happened. Mar 16, 1:53pm: EDIT: The market will resolve to N/A if I judge that the story that Chelsea Manning and Grimes have dated is false.

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EllieHigh

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "sex-and-love"]

0.3

1679034798689

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0.02

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what-free-response-market-will-mani

477.7950848979867

What free response market will Manifold create and submit to Hacker News?

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cpmm-multi-1

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James

We are consider creating a free response market on some nerdy topic, like the best tech stack for a new startup, and then submitting it to Hacker News as a way to introduce new users to Manifold. Additionally, we might award a real USD bounty in the hundreds of dollars to the top traders for the created market. Submi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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JamesGrugett

1647464559844

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ANYONE

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1647665716943

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in-1-week-what-will-i-conclude-to-b

311

In 1 week, what will I conclude to be the number of daily active users the most popular forecasting or prediction markets currently has?

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cpmm-multi-1

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MKT

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Stephen Malina

As part of a bet (https://twitter.com/krishnanrohit/status/1504164219083706371) I proposed, I want to know how many daily active users (DAUs), averaged over the past three months (or smaller number if this is unavailable), the most popular forecasting or prediction markets platform currently has. However, rather than a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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StephenMalina

1647474231865

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ANYONE

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1

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{"1731a338b661": 42.10526315789474, "489c1c87bd33": 31.57894736842105, "776f24518568": 26.31578947368421}

True

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{"NO": 272.2402242870665, "YES": 9036.776142974819}

0

will-the-united-states-participate

17643.16877462367

Will the United States participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

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cpmm-1

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1647478453585

kalassak

This market resolves to YES if the United States is listed as an official participant in the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest. Guest or "one-off" appearances as a competitor are included (e.g. Australia in 2015). Performances as an interval act resolve to NO. For example, if the winner of American Song Contest performs o...

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kalassak

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["eurovision-2023", "us-politics"]

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2

Test market

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play

CANCEL

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1647482771653

Isaac King

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Test

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1647482889270

Jenny

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0.504531940423309

test-will-i-lose-some-manifold-doll

1

[TEST] Will I lose some Manifold dollars by deleting this market?

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cpmm-1

0

2.7710466292322513

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CANCEL

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1647483625033

Austin

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Austin

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test-is-the-delete-button-gone

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[TEST] Is the delete button gone?

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1647483884811

Austin

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Austin

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test

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1647484996171

Isaac King

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IsaacKing

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yet-more-tests

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Yet more tests

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CANCEL

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1647485416739

Isaac King

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teeeest

1

teeeest

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1647486121920

Isaac King

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will-the-ever-forward-still-be-stuc

791

Will the Ever Forward still be stuck on March 20?

1647759540000

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cpmm-1

0

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1647488230065

Alicorn

I will resolve this by Googling the question; comments are welcome to point me to particular sources.

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Alicorn

1647488230065

0

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0.999483726176011

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will-niche-coffee-announce-a-new-co

0

Will Niche Coffee announce a new coffee grinder in 2022

1647877873977

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cpmm-1

0

8.780929739030007

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647493436480

Undox

Yes if Niche Coffee announce intent to ship a new model of coffee grinder with a name different to “Niche Zero”. New colours, improvements or variations on the existing NZ dont count. I am saying unlikely as their main business constraint is making enough of the original model to meet demand, and the rest of the consu...

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1647877873977

20

Undox

1647493436480

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0.25

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will-valinor-unfuck-its-backyard-ea-0a84aab8c7e9

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Will Valinor unfuck its backyard eating area by April 1st.

1648882740000

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cpmm-1

0

3.379342288773477

True

play

YES

public

1647493749289

Mike Blume

Mar 16, 10:09pm: https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-valinor-unfuck-its-backyard-ea

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MichaelBlume

1647493749289

0

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1

[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1658529460574}, {"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670518236253}]

["sf-bay-rationalists", "valinor"]

0.2

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PGpzRvQR5PgtSGHKOsO4

what-will-be-my-favorite-questions

838.235240740475

What will be my favorite question(s) during the Mar 17 AMA?

1647561000000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7620990761042545

True

play

MKT

public

1647494273639

Austin

I'm hosting a live Q&A/AMA tomorrow at 4pm! Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. I'll aim to answer them all, and then pick my favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 4pm PT here: https://discord.gg/JPuHas38?event=953882535836917772 I reserve the right to arbitrarily spit up points howe...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1647561399932

920.0000000000002

Austin

1647494273639

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

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1647560556597

{"5d60b410a338": 9.836400745607657, "e420455e1c93": 90.16359925439234}

True

0.08083328344442868

kkFN1tl0fKOVxNfQMzjs

{"NO": 10636.42998816415, "YES": 7085.210044574038}

1

will-this-d10-come-up-1

9879

Will this d10 come up 1?

1647644340000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

0.1310135674658932

True

plus

YES

public

1647517203786

Gurkenglas

That leaderboard's looking pretty unreachable, huh? Are you really supposed to spend all that time doing research? I have a deal for you. Stake your M$ on YES and only the future you that wins has to do research. I bet I'll make those M$ back from you. The d10 is the last numeric digit of the hash of the first ethereu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 147.08763036757557, "platformFee": 29.0000699216542, "liquidityFee": 147.08763036757557}

0

1647644520890

10147.087630367578

Gurkenglas

1647517203786

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

1

16

0

0.08

1647606025530

0.11452136772587415

0.45805030853337025

mZofvFfnsDsr29oo9lIT

{"NO": 61.59491670749538, "YES": 49.70095120455582}

0

will-it-be-a-hassle-to-get-my-meds

112

Will it be a hassle to get my meds in April?

1650351540000

rR0GrrJUWJXOUvtbDvcTbeWQSJf1

cpmm-1

0

4.140227955651919

True

play

NO

public

1647547824534

Elliot Lindsey

This market resolves to YES if, when I try to pick up my meds from the pharmacy in April, I have to call my insurance or doctor to resolve any issues, make multiple trips to the pharmacy due to delays or mix-ups on their part, wait more than 10 minutes for the pharmacy to process the information on my card, or pay out ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.920168744903245, "platformFee": 0.5553347007461227, "liquidityFee": 2.920168744903245}

0

1650480556521

52.92016874490323

elliotlindsey

1647547824534

0

https://firebasestorage.…01d-b6cca01ed79f

11

0

1

0.45

1649525740263

0.5115882043263015

0.07841089246643593

KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy

{"NO": 891.8280506885957, "YES": 2549.2369120212597}

0.028904918436338405

will-the-united-state-elect-its-fir

2654.266924598988

Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024

1734328740000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.536516106926914

False

basic

public

1647551269071

Scott Owens

Like my other demographic presidential markets this will resolve based on whatever gender the victor self-identifies as, so a transwomen count as well.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.204808943004165, "platformFee": 0.7946738717330634, "liquidityFee": 3.785742350678126}

0

1000

ScottOwens

1717243723191

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

42

0

11

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481748}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501811765}, {"name": "US Pol...

["politics-default", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.36

1717243720051

False

0.15630043054115925

FGD8VVIGCu52uqDAp82o

{"NO": 113.19833858653104, "YES": 69.80469806247015}

0.23101722325983662

will-my-avatar-still-be-a-15-megapi

97

Will my avatar still be a 15 megapixel jpg on April 1st, 2022?

1647561458957

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

0

5.1040442676002495

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647551319386

Adam

I do not intend to change my avatar. This question is intended to measure whether the Manifold Market team will scale stored avatars to a reasonable, avatar-y size.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5675749142366975, "platformFee": 0.6418937285591744, "liquidityFee": 2.5675749142366975}

0

1647561458957

102.5675749142367

Adam

1647551319386

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

4

0

0.15

1647552930844

0.2310172232598366

0.8007527374043022

rx5T6He3BwbRtPRflmtm

{"NO": 1090.4262369437402, "YES": 59.770392896692556}

1

will-the-ue-union-be-elected-as-the

1135

Will the UE union be elected as the collective bargaining representative of the MIT graduate students?

1649436222183

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

5.0442845716720495

True

play

YES

public

1647560260534

Peter Berggren

This market will resolve to YES if The Tech (https://thetech.com/) publishes an article prior to April 14, 2022 saying that the union election described in https://ovc.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/NEE.01-RC-289879.NEE_.01-RC-289879.REVISED_MITNoticeofElection-Manual.pdf has elected the United Electrical, Radio, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2565129272397706, "platformFee": 0.5427521545399618, "liquidityFee": 3.2565129272397706}

0

1649436222183

103.25651292723978

PeterBerggren

1647560260534

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

5

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576337}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534949}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "crea...

["politics-default", "science-default", "economics-default", "mit"]

0.8

1649264790862

0.9865444820070038

B3qurWNNa2tC94Bnsu8T

test-do-buy-buttons-show-up-in-clos

20

[TEST] Do buy buttons show up in closed markets?

1647562020000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.850308340515122

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647561875753

Austin

Close date updated to 2022-03-17 5:07 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1647565437930

240

Austin

1698800553292

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d85decf63834", "prob": 0.24999999999999997, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413263, "textFts": "", "contractId": "B3qurWNNa2tC94Bnsu8T", "createdTime": 1647561876033, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1698800551072

True

0.12826547762197

NCr2fxAYHuEuKFwJiIYc

{"NO": 29.9999390429747, "YES": 0.0009957924615942916}

1

test-market-df80076778bc

20

Test market

1647567682074

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.108285764881249

True

play

YES

public

1647567615634

Account deletion requested

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.00024382810118854794, "platformFee": 6.0957025297136984e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00024382810118854794}

0

1647567682074

10.000243828101189

Accountdeletionrequested

1647567615634

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

1

0

0.1

0.5950988803748143

KUx3jSGolFVMDuLJefQ6

{"NO": 6.139696319252266, "YES": 30.663855919435115}

1

will-more-than-9-people-show-up-to

37

Will more than 9 people show up to the next Bayesian Choir meeting?

1648407600000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

8.369081463555833

True

play

YES

public

1647571194015

Em ✨

Count includes the director. Last one was almost under strength for the arrangement we wanted to try, but we made it work.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5020701935780971, "platformFee": 0.08367836559634952, "liquidityFee": 0.5020701935780971}

0

1648427942667

15.502070193578097

hamnox

1647571194015

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

5

0

1

0.6

1648280810901

0.22736946842854736

0.1737569160081212

onhTHDgQVDpX6V5inItM

{"NO": 1176.1787461120725, "YES": 49676.2000978228}

0

will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p

84241.51921003535

Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

1.1719768842578564e-15

0.4604362653383518

True

basic

NO

public

1647571853675

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7679434215873369, "platformFee": 0.033967987569559675, "liquidityFee": 0.20380792541735804}

0

1704124461040

2330.203807925417

MetaculusBot

1704124462085

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

135

0

2

16

[{"name": "coup d'état", "slug": "coup-detat", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "wiaUz7jXkuNBbkBpCwdD", "createdTime": 1670540267753}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677373534823}, {"name": "Ukra...

["coup-detat", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1484531155206847

0.13

1704085107635

1687625679742

False

0

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz

how-many-refugees-will-leave-ukrain

1236.0916604445365

How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.687792070845936

True

play

d51fec7ccfc5

public

1647572152904

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/ Rounded to nearest 500k, i.e. "5 million", "5.5 million", "6 million", etc. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673754204239

560

MetaculusBot

1671398661790

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a9f77f2cf25e", "prob": 0.5688308834987885, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.800758221164614, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.6526628530537, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OQudiA0A7Jvd2XWHlrJz", "createdTime": 1647572153117, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

3

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416879}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224345}]

["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1671398660607

False

{"d51fec7ccfc5": 100}

True

0.08286171906209715

Na7Gbr2hP84nkB0VPjO1

{"NO": 743.1735800074669, "YES": 11654.617012236069}

0

will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl

16155.413087843017

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

1672462740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.5328563547283154

True

play

NO

public

1647572199734

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10267/nato-article-5-invocation-before-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4163225248503527, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672697865629

960

MetaculusBot

1672459601074

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

32

0

1

29

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664370609278}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664370587747}, {"name": "Wars", "slu...

["nato", "global-macro", "wars", "metaculus"]

0.05

1672459599910

0.01

0.21124802456601832

bddHrqzJnTxFnTqSfF5n

{"NO": 375.45246911733904, "YES": 4206.468812724167}

0

will-georgia-impose-sanctions-again

6047.007560223357

Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.1475966575755256

True

play

NO

public

1647572458435

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/ Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2024 Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 20.476749665760476, "platformFee": 1.832214803541698, "liquidityFee": 10.993288821250186}

0

1704124377079

645.2525939833895

MetaculusBot

1704124377461

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

0

22

0

1

14

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370704}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224054}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.22

1702399782077

1648872390207

False

0.02

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM

if-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-zel

2027.071366756832

If Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will it happen for the first time?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7049620866974955

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647572679528

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/ Acceptable answers: months in 2022, i.e. "May 2022". Resolves N/A if does not occur by 2023. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9562477721706046, "platformFee": 0.48906194304265116, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673754175048

499.99999999999994

MetaculusBot

1667866224533

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ee087aceb706", "prob": 0.8850813718404252, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.92724261723717, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.015581400093027, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ti3Z567tk3nh4lg6ScOM", "createdTime": 1647572679725, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

3

6

1667866223084

1666998406268

True

TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz

what-will-total-nato-defense-spendi

1581.5878950368306

What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?

1688183940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.684026630466712

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647572862915

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/", "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688694459597

600.0000000000001

MetaculusBot

1688694783665

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c6fa8979746c", "prob": 0.5091038756178962, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.245114808606836, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.02036174476601, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TIFNexam2DqY80MtsqUz", "createdTime": 1647572863101, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

22

3

0.11055103358828151

1687328930762

1688694781429

True

0.3507421351780881

WlRK8Ynk9c8JNpF1gXJq

{"NO": 2236.4165121960405, "YES": 37.40432593791043}

1

will-swedens-government-initiate-th

2380.026695247294

Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?

1652826672172

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.1287613486384034

True

play

YES

public

1647572943968

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/ Expected resolution: Jan 1, 2023 Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 20.67365219450523, "platformFee": 3.445608699084205, "liquidityFee": 20.67365219450523}

0

1652826672172

519.8941904213339

MetaculusBot

1652712670830

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

17

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372180}]

["metaculus"]

0.32

1652712669342

0.9699699067455092