p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4 | if-there-is-a-bilateral-ceasefire-o | 1030.9392715253975 | If there is a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, when will it take effect? | 1669870740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.681770532184399 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573125003 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10250/date-of-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2022/
Acceptable answers: whole month, i.e. "May", "June", etc.
Expected to resolve Jan 1, 2023. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.524919187319083, "platformFee": 0.38122979682977076, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754152822 | 1180 | MetaculusBot | 1673754152622 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d85efe017658", "prob": 0.47557010110701836, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.05633579068785, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.349785233464075, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647573125232, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.22", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 33.66280715526593, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4e1dc9aa60ca", "prob": 0.020050296133992642, "text": "May", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.43240630021987575, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.133674187079645, "textFts": "'may':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647576664436, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.221", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 3.0229677248173523, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fa53ead8212c", "prob": 0.02587435166090975, "text": "April", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.804461110151517, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.286602375967608, "textFts": "'april':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647576770798, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.22", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 4.936030163004322, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5a6caddc45a9", "prob": 0.03625264468964373, "text": "June", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.3413319539399444, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.6582294690401, "textFts": "'june':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647576780310, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 6.915889140793573, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2e95031d5428", "prob": 0.028014017052998552, "text": "July", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.9072801527427296, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.479369395813055, "textFts": "'juli':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647913041825, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 5.344212483956647, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8206d9edfe9a", "prob": 0.0011892152713372777, "text": "August", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0061867394141274235, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.196184574881566, "textFts": "'august':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1648234386542, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 0.17929707167854342, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6c3e894a0c8", "prob": 0.03732539429332703, "text": "September", "index": 6, "poolNo": 2.284046078642796, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.90877242699141, "textFts": "'septemb':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1648423013449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 11.599584072695476, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9a395ffdf8b9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "March", "index": 7, "poolNo": 7.077276949617599e-05, "userId": "j47VWo4hxgVU86TVfpS4pzR3RBv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7076569221922635, "textFts": "'march':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1648575150289, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007076923076923078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "215696bb583f", "prob": 0.07008147280505271, "text": "November", "index": 8, "poolNo": 5.978887654048806, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.33449710714791, "textFts": "'novemb':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1654230786019, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 21.779165394800998, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2080fb37dedf", "prob": 0.22601555879210072, "text": "December", "index": 9, "poolNo": 37.955909523580594, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 129.97903144432928, "textFts": "'decemb':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1654230802318, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 70.238681347699, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d4fb19aa5ae9", "prob": 0.06400297241535648, "text": "October", "index": 10, "poolNo": 4.531711900771332, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 66.27299809554161, "textFts": "'octob':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1654230873378, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 17.33003560785037, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0f2785f6b83a", "prob": 0.007744863765491479, "text": "January", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.04842319837495962, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.203875078415548, "textFts": "'januari':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1665773827646, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 0.54809805109632, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a561c4fd7a6a", "prob": 0.007779112012771185, "text": "February", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.04874558983419295, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.217469596959102, "textFts": "'februari':1", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1665773847046, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754152000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5505217732114992, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 9 | 10 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671065744460}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065735325}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065734316}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065731971}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662317910748}, {"name": "How It Ends", "slug": "how-it-ends", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "InKUlX3nJIQnJr550GCs", "createdTime": 1671065747499}] | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "world-default", "how-it-ends"] | 1669398242243 | 1673754149138 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8 | how-many-refugees-will-leave-ukrain-3636a8e4a73d | 2199.7398012336675 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? | 1656647940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6651429378556 | True | play | c98aa8963d3f | public | 1647573249031 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/
Rounded to nearest 500k, i.e "5.5 million, "6 million", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.32793874190947, "platformFee": 6.831984685477368, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660133632309 | 659.9999999999999 | MetaculusBot | 1656537066345 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eb2f69b35441", "prob": 0.2633844233896626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.145746381363423, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.171662666300385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1647573249235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 18.639513039883816, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2c09cf36141", "prob": 0.02734457083631477, "text": "5 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.32446782297669474, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.541427784563341, "textFts": "'5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1647593721081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.167", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9351542438007376, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fab9d3a6ac64", "prob": 0.022577312772961874, "text": "5.5 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.38008987983096726, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.454946408728368, "textFts": "'5.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1647593735869, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.169", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5008715686973155, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "281e2e20cefa", "prob": 0.01483275718761224, "text": "4.5 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.2016029995078963, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.390138371156993, "textFts": "'4.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1647593756261, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6430131038585867, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "01fd69a6b5fa", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "4 million", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00011077476964618848, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.1076369216922386, "textFts": "'4':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1648249330190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.169", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.011076923076923078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "faeda3a61de1", "prob": 0.01196818819882627, "text": "6 million", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.14590705462405626, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.045332939276229, "textFts": "'6':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1649731691006, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.166", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 1.3257070004853715, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "071563f80ba8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "6.5 million", "index": 6, "poolNo": 7.077276949617599e-05, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7076569221922635, "textFts": "'6.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1651946294370, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.169", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007076923076923078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "adcf9ea06e4", "prob": 0.005605356545206472, "text": "7 million", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.04661703154281281, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.269897924616089, "textFts": "'7':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1653918942043, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.167", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6209010326997938, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a16de8176e80", "prob": 0.0047181481721178, "text": "7.5 million", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.035983504740532836, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.590632580184412, "textFts": "'7.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1653918994308, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5226256436807409, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "23f99e5eb7dd", "prob": 0.02405157370014473, "text": "8 million", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.41823555685508373, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.97087843914789, "textFts": "'8':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1654163610997, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6641743175544934, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c98aa8963d3f", "prob": 0.620933806203353, "text": "8.5 million", "index": 10, "poolNo": 92.47932765143243, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.45656008334789, "textFts": "'8.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1654163788713, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 72.25693543197573, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d6b970e31a9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "8.5 million", "index": 11, "poolNo": 7.077276949617599e-05, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7076569221922635, "textFts": "'8.5':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1654434123582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.167", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007076923076923078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f9dfa8ba7d8a", "prob": 0.004283862993800191, "text": "9 million", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.019885204492340904, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.622000990542307, "textFts": "'9':1 'million':2", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1654821175838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.133", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133632000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3031656887920135, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1656537066160 | 1653918918685 | {"c98aa8963d3f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24662690571724497 | MxSj9lN7S4Ppg5hzjbrB | {"NO": 303.14806351491876, "YES": 2955.9863725367645} | 0 | will-russia-control-cherkasy-on-jun | 2673.47255048839 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2000878187723933 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573308191 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10044/will-russia-control-cherkasy-on-june-1-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.519872844271832, "platformFee": 2.5866454740453055, "liquidityFee": 15.519872844271832} | 0 | 1654218693159 | 515.4034174689212 | MetaculusBot | 1647573308231 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416681}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372293}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223903}] | ["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | False | 0.032481928395935215 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9 | if-caida-measures-a-major-disruptio | 2896.6667038987835 | If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it happen? | 1659326340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.660714192265328 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573436733 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10265/ukraine-without-internet-when/
Acceptable answers: month prior to August 2022, i.e. "April", "May", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.306668155951347, "platformFee": 0.5766670389878368, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660133497834 | 540 | MetaculusBot | 1657656448475 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "02aa8af327d7", "prob": 0.21781651412949501, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.881794025221804, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.3036809683591, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647573436936, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.433", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 14.93598954030823, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "924a6c422d99", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "July 2022", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620439285, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.433", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "24fefd683ca7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "June 2022", "index": 2, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'june':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620453954, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.432", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb1d14fb53bd", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "May 2022", "index": 3, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620468587, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.435", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "037e65d93bf7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "April 2022", "index": 4, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'april':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620479628, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.433", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fe67386c085a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "March 2022", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'march':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620620383, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.435", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "448c93732b60", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "April 2022", "index": 6, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'april':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620630880, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.433", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4a5267e17323", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "May 2022", "index": 7, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620637627, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.433", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "867aa51148ad", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "June 2022", "index": 8, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'june':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620644082, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.631", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f315c67e7ac5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "July 2022", "index": 9, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'2022':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647620650181, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.631", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "49606c781e6b", "prob": 0.7678877702515411, "text": "July 2022", "index": 10, "poolNo": 79.30244123437369, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.97103739961493, "textFts": "'2022':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1648504077141, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.632", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 43.60002046685227, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a197e637c422", "prob": 0.004421675236828749, "text": "June 2022", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.020206250979009285, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.549611724504266, "textFts": "'2022':2 'june':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1648504083519, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.632", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3032005876682571, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4f1f614fd13e", "prob": 0.004465238539654647, "text": "May 2022", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.02050604847026748, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.571868645100633, "textFts": "'2022':2 'may':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1648504091029, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.631", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.30618778557631865, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3db399a676d3", "prob": 0.004508801842480547, "text": "April 2022", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.02080732297752495, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.594015795103367, "textFts": "'2022':2 'april':1", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1648504097032, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.63", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1660133497000, "totalLiquidity": 0.30917498348438033, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1657656447209 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31641015319045396 | 1rQ4tv2HmsixbPc8onjK | {"NO": 158.46681983161352, "YES": 6913.330504334514} | 0 | will-caida-measure-a-major-disrupti | 8359 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | 1659326340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5671728327992516 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573533182 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10251/major-disruption-to-ukrainian-internet-access/
Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.166055998925053, "platformFee": 1.9345769053992192, "liquidityFee": 11.607461432395315} | 0 | 1660133462355 | 511.6074614323953 | MetaculusBot | 1660052863692 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371489}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.32 | 1659290818829 | 1660052859115 | 0.010498381226730767 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37492260356857815 | 6XqrLCZDCBOCa8rF533v | {"NO": 46.47027650600599, "YES": 1155.3081661622882} | 0 | will-the-nytimes-wordle-for-march-2 | 8292 | Will the NYTimes Wordle for March 21 start with a vowel? | 1647871442074 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1947968755910656 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573569571 | Alex Power | I would like a hint whether the wordle for Monday, March 21, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. Vowels are A E I O U and sometimes Y; if the word starts with Y, then I will flip a coin to resolve the market.
There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has) changed the word list. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.09537965481132, "platformFee": 5.569979006138967, "liquidityFee": 33.09537965481132} | 0 | 1647871442074 | 128.09537965481132 | AlexPower | 1647573569571 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.5 | 1647851416740 | 0.01035432115857316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14412994899506082 | BY2t3Ha9fxwPKwMOtfYL | {"NO": 672.7476598983912, "YES": 4367.664284246015} | 0 | will-there-be-a-serious-radiation-i-3b923a78b1ac | 6334.224181086471 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9879585218989089 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573612053 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/
Expected to resolve around Feb 1, 2024.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3073512180795355, "platformFee": 0.25865507989815345, "liquidityFee": 1.5519304793889206} | 0 | 1704926908676 | 901.5519304793888 | MetaculusBot | 1704926909043 | 0.2 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 15 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414311}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125143}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371667}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223772}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701133669991}] | ["world-default", "nuclear-risk", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11550781035755772 | 0.1 | 1703472364488 | 1682342365121 | False | 0.03 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX | what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-575e2c442520 | 508 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | 1647631644852 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.708909919861901 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573700031 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/
Rounded to nearest whole number.
Expected to resolve around Mar 1, 2023.
Mar 18, 3:22pm: Replaced with https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-99b693525a17
(this market had too narrowly-defined acceptable answers) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647631644852 | 380 | MetaculusBot | 1647573700031 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d9fff6d5048b", "prob": 0.968751937503875, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.692270723273788, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.4739138844499194, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX", "createdTime": 1647573700163, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.586", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647631644000, "totalLiquidity": 2.638725277450555, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fc266610f4c8", "prob": 0.003878882757765516, "text": "63", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.020439722189483325, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.249047257937215, "textFts": "'63':1", "contractId": 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"isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.25948348831837, "textFts": "'62':1", "contractId": "9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX", "createdTime": 1647576920782, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.7", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647631644000, "totalLiquidity": 0.32885899105131544, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cfc53df45c98", "prob": 0.0039021328042656085, "text": "65", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.020624011715794446, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.264693723562039, "textFts": "'65':1", "contractId": "9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX", "createdTime": 1647576927516, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.589", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647631644000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3295134368046514, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "849a96089a54", "prob": 0.003909882819765639, "text": "61", "index": 5, 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1647631644000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3321312198179951, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH | how-many-people-in-russia-will-be-a | 1177.723292381091 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.688379498651097 | True | play | b3a3291cb000 | public | 1647573821081 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10041/-of-anti-war-protest-arrests-in-russia/
Rounded to nearest 5k, i.e. "25,000", "30,000", etc.
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6801759214565573, "platformFee": 0.1700439803641393, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677116878698 | 660 | MetaculusBot | 1671398764493 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3c2c36103b73", "prob": 0.5781525584924341, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.46470269767941, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.795312964252243, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647573821259, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.137", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 33.71050971464015, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb70b34d3a3a", "prob": 0.015487351792568669, "text": "25000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.38849469320587565, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.696148466529664, "textFts": "'25000':1", 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"text": "15000", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'15000':1", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647621097923, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.132", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "81dc464820c2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "40000", "index": 6, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'40000':1", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647621162522, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.317", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4ee161b2a461", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "45000", "index": 7, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'45000':1", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647621204524, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.318", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c660a012bbc0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "50000", "index": 8, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'50000':1", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647621218052, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.317", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ea6750c4fe1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "10000", "index": 9, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'10000':1", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647621420736, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.317", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1677116878000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 11 | 6 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1667370230271}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1667370221947}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417204}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224366}] | ["world-default", "russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671398764361 | False | {"b3a3291cb000": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02999812025876614 | BZ4OAyqkBkk8dO6R0VpT | {"NO": 484.7227689817955, "YES": 1412.7131391843486} | 0 | will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl-7eaa930b70e4 | 942 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | 1656561540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.322923571394728 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573956756 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10197/nato-article-5-invocation-by-june-30-2022/
See same market but with Dec 31 end date at https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl
Close date updated to 2022-06-29 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1760283519148265, "platformFee": 0.04409428177746252, "liquidityFee": 0.2645656906647751} | 0 | 1656585604490 | 500.26456569066477 | MetaculusBot | 1656551274988 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372194}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.03 | 1656551273502 | 0.010499698604783553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18817802565443817 | nAanXQnWz4DReDZt8VWl | {"NO": 400.2334322498175, "YES": 2298.3415226469588} | 0 | will-russia-withdraw-from-the-new-s | 1740.0000000000005 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2376528158012494 | True | play | NO | public | 1647576219043 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10042/russia-withdrawal-from-new-start-treaty-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6783976321237521, "platformFee": 0.003984055816576261, "liquidityFee": 0.023904334899457563} | 0 | 1672697891464 | 560.0239043348995 | MetaculusBot | 1672558911537 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374504}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.2 | 1672547300322 | 1672558908718 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT | how-many-true-buzzerbeaters-will-th | 1395.1083140172502 | How many true buzzer-beaters will there be in the 2022 March Madness tournament? | 1649130280294 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.679805208605368 | True | play | cb9dc48edfa4 | public | 1647577946120 | David Glidden | "True" meaning a game-winning buzzer-beater that would be listed on https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/friv/ncaa-buzzer-beaters.html with "0" in the "Time" column.
Last decade:
2021: 1
2019: 0
2018: 1
2017: 1
2016: 4
2015: 0
2014: 1
2013: 0
2012: 0 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.359012544692647, "platformFee": 1.8397531361731618, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649130280294 | 520 | dglid | 1647577946120 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "63aee74dbbf4", "prob": 0.017884930315816214, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21721619433507264, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.927991558751975, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647577946328, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6096437284234593, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb9dc48edfa4", "prob": 0.9552503210910562, "text": "0", "index": 1, "poolNo": 43.224254077698426, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.024884418616416, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647577963685, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 9.355432570878197, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3e3a9d2c13d5", "prob": 0.012388671576422473, "text": "1", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.3468838551620856, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.653200982203234, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647577972382, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 3.097167894105618, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3e7bd797b9e9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "2", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00013000650048754065, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.2999349983749189, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647595218943, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.54", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 0.013000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b7e28b6f4783", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "3", "index": 4, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647596802952, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8baefa046fc4", "prob": 0.009578406701724692, "text": "2", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.08477589224519602, "userId": "nJuYzybTX9UqpvtrzSMWiSH1OjM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.76595418063125, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647732997041, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8620566031552223, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2660c834594e", "prob": 0.0023470466644586047, "text": "3", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.010245551715284242, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.355049723590882, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1649004461957, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.542", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 0.21123419980127442, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "317b4f396a57", "prob": 0.0023506236505217676, "text": "4", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.01026900094678235, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.358359275426997, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1649004471252, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.54", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130280000, "totalLiquidity": 0.21155612854695907, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"cb9dc48edfa4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6b2EW1Ibr20NjMTTM3kf | private-question-4 | 31 | Private Question #4 | 1648135235547 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.56573599125649 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647586274948 | Ozy Brennan | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648135235547 | 220 | ozymandias272 | 1647586274948 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e824fc19aac5", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6b2EW1Ibr20NjMTTM3kf", "createdTime": 1647586275225, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:33.435", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648135235000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27620530829529444 | oipdGgLTPQPzzMP6RoD3 | {"NO": 252.43459835605972, "YES": 3069.3411952722263} | 0 | will-who-add-another-sarscov2-varia | 4334.6286304962905 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2525012817500456 | True | play | NO | public | 1647604635812 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/
Expected to resolve Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9619937832839802, "platformFee": 0.036650097603800585, "liquidityFee": 0.2199005856228035} | 0 | 1673232943499 | 820.2199005856228 | MetaculusBot | 1672759029727 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 20 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371699}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.75 | 1672543662312 | 1672759027877 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5734919421233561 | xSOLuzNgwyL9Z2qprYrs | {"NO": 11867.788976957618, "YES": 54.189044601159594} | 1 | will-holden-win-his-bet-with-zvi-ab | 17524.145718395703 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | 1664083815813 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.059860082668443 | True | play | YES | public | 1647604774033 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Expected to resolve around Mar 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.08086954131936, "platformFee": 3.3053367185093254, "liquidityFee": 19.832020311055953} | 0 | 1664083815813 | 519.832020311056 | MetaculusBot | 1710206848062 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["metaculus", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.57 | 1663973950611 | 1664020891061 | 0.9966156963535255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5012345446222972 | 6S8zzuJBeaaE7Te5IxtX | {"NO": 25.490417231609626, "YES": 10686.881541267721} | 0 | will-holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omi | 20773.96472136749 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | 1664083848013 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4397752718089696 | True | play | NO | public | 1647604847133 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/
Expected to resolve around Sep 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-08-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.344125115181406, "platformFee": 2.1530549745282523, "liquidityFee": 12.918329847169513} | 0 | 1664083848013 | 512.9183298471695 | MetaculusBot | 1664020944002 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371025}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.5 | 1663973979430 | 1664020941526 | 0.0023912820969264072 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6657947716739487 | HKHZaG7VmaqSR4SAEtXE | {"NO": 3365.8346875549655, "YES": 57.01879142508404} | 1 | will-omicron-be-the-most-dominant-s | 3578.4154022837793 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.074999375005152 | True | play | YES | public | 1647604971101 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8880/omicron-dominant-variant-dec-31-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 10, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-01-09 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.076246764521933, "platformFee": 0.8017492912155476, "liquidityFee": 4.810495747293285} | 0 | 1673089878026 | 644.3370399945238 | MetaculusBot | 1672462623564 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 22 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371637}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.25 | 1672462623389 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16827540374528865 | jT9lnBkuVHbymXFUPTfa | {"NO": 257.66527566194577, "YES": 16290.09500663969} | 0 | will-there-be-a-tau-variant-of-covi | 15869 | Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)? | 1656388740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4975607423111552 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605109609 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/
Expected to resolve around Jun 29, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-06-27 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.68706400666036, "platformFee": 1.4614470574747105, "liquidityFee": 8.768682344848262} | 0 | 1656542226530 | 508.76868234484834 | MetaculusBot | 1656363891765 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372196}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.17 | 1656363890292 | 0.0031899639545063642 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2516002306455589 | aG0O9zNiEnT1FXAEJP4M | {"NO": 64.48919298148465, "YES": 2526.559964861859} | 0 | will-russian-troops-enter-odessa-uk | 5401.989430751523 | Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.631752119890815 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605362426 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/
Expected to resolve Dec 31, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.94013626430164, "platformFee": 2.4458703860928153, "liquidityFee": 14.675222316556894} | 0 | 1672795004735 | 591.6658891720125 | MetaculusBot | 1672468698912 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065256923}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065254875}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662318283800}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662318281742}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065258086}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370820}] | ["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus"] | 0.86 | 1672462587454 | 1672468695337 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39343980984561744 | yrRtwxYwpWe6MU4V5l59 | {"NO": 170.0361630353455, "YES": 2741.7380304805083} | 0 | will-the-us-rejoin-the-iran-nuclear | 2862.8678530766124 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.23470357922052 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605433786 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.277551108416766, "platformFee": 0.7314870496973241, "liquidityFee": 4.388922298183944} | 0 | 1673089477076 | 544.3889222981841 | MetaculusBot | 1673086400337 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525589}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370711}] | ["iran", "metaculus"] | 0.45 | 1672431037278 | 1673086397917 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Wes5RG5qz6nitMfttrjw | {"NO": 500, "YES": 500} | 0.5 | will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef | 0 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 1647606035797 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7292862271758184 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647606022776 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647606035797 | 500 | MetaculusBot | 1647606022776 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372254}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24926325511243227 | Sa83VGSR7NPXxTzEbotz | {"NO": 1321.6451569870471, "YES": 831.0466092694386} | 0.3455633570239367 | will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef-293b30c295af | 10198.066213007254 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 2524539540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.787048058287855 | False | basic | public | 1647606087673 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior.
Close date updated to 2049-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.002835376977761206} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.95626945558544, "platformFee": 35.66002307230989, "liquidityFee": 4.751965182629413} | 0 | 1229.5041870124119 | MetaculusBot | 1719377547367 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370428}, {"name": "Non-AI Doom composite", "slug": "nonai-doom-composite", "groupId": "de65d19a-b10a-43fd-a12c-7534a1fe8a83", "createdTime": 1691181356528}, {"name": "ww3", "slug": "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "groupId": "29708c7c-1502-4abd-8450-7fe46c2babf2", "createdTime": 1708471318366}] | ["metaculus", "nonai-doom-composite", "ww3-0de6f68758b8"] | 0.2 | 1719377543427 | 1718414564407 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1695738361957768 | aZ8urzZXzVGggoczjgEz | {"NO": 1013.7950979783934, "YES": 1863.1615697632756} | 0.10000000000000318 | will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p | 11900.616655550231 | Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? | 1893473940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.717504331832677 | False | basic | public | 1647606374086 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
Closes Oct 12, 2025. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.
Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.993837738158737, "platformFee": 1.6171381053589777, "liquidityFee": 1.4268644975354106} | 0 | 1141.4268644975355 | MetaculusBot | 1716762160970 | 0.2 | 47 | 0 | 31 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["space", "metaculus", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.12844859838941824 | 0.21 | 1716762160970 | 1687053403555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6500000062233163 | uFIH8WIGYuWfKzqIAt4F | {"NO": 1307.3442101504543, "YES": 2469.113415723151} | 0.49579456154255347 | will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-b | 16825.528789778313 | Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? | 1893473940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.734713904297107 | False | basic | public | 1647606440787 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/
Closes Aug 1, 2024. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.
Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.0013991595533486834, "month": 0.04833556745730894} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.20433283111649, "platformFee": 23.648130934379193, "liquidityFee": 1.4036558236690062} | 0 | 2036.403655823669 | MetaculusBot | 1719913261023 | 0 | 2 | 124 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462891}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370479}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1687638626999}] | ["space", "metaculus", "mars"] | 0.8 | 1719913257751 | 1702978578193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DcIz96jynPMU8UxBrUyC | what-database-will-manifold-be-prim | 23431.09269183185 | What database will this website be using on June 1st? | 1654066740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.618888913806273 | True | basic | 869487764e1b | public | 1647620334905 | Austin | We want to switch to a new database, because we've been experiencing some pain points with Firestore:
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are not very powerful. For example, you can't filter two fields simultaneously by the greater than operator '>'.
- Related: Firebase cloud functions have extremely slow cold-start times (>5 seconds is common), and deploying new versions can take minutes.
We are actively researching alternatives, but we could use your help!
What database should we switch to? The rest of our tech stack is Nextjs, React, Typescript, and Tailwind.
Submit your answer, or bet on which we will decide on! This is not a poll, this is a prediction market; this market will resolve to the database that is officially powering our site as of market close time (end of day PT on May 31st)
(Our company is Manifold Markets, which runs this site!)
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 78.1517108818526, "platformFee": 19.53792772046315, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654092908858 | 2459.999999999999 | Austin | 1654061957327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 58 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7606841100c0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.739417412827881e-05, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5738843471086598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DcIz96jynPMU8UxBrUyC", "createdTime": 1647620335095, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:32.543", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654092908000, "totalLiquidity": 0.005739130434782609, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "869487764e1b", "prob": 0.966135829669326, "text": "Firestore (our current DB) ", "index": 1, "poolNo": 215.7783264743458, "userId": 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0.0817996318519354, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Backend v2", "slug": "backend-v2", "groupId": "J1hEfCZs7RurfyYkbA9R", "createdTime": 1658529457066}] | ["backend-v2"] | 1654061955757 | 1652932438317 | {"869487764e1b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fgJj6FbY9PbGU8BAA3Pr | {"NO": 51, "YES": 51} | 0.5 | will-odessa-fall-before-2023 | 0 | Will Odessa fall before 2023? | 1647626069668 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.341816816362396 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647626044688 | Account deletion requested | See also https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-before-2023
Intended resolution will match what is present there
> This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Odessa is under Russian military control. If this does not happen by the end of 2022, this question will resolve negatively.
though I am going to exclude from "reported" thanks posted as result of hacking etc. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647626069668 | 51 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647626044688 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23897106217634975 | R245cwbDPaNSkCyJUYnV | {"NO": 68.8092300906354, "YES": 119.49318923013256} | 0.1531312406894602 | will-odessa-fall-before-2023-322eeb61935c | 1254.165642313709 | Will Odessa fall before 2023? | 1663277464387 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.554397271380664 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647626194796 | Account deletion requested | See also https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-before-2023
Intended resolution will match what is present there
> This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Odessa is under Russian military control. If this does not happen by the end of 2022, this question will resolve negatively.
though I am going to exclude from "reported" thanks posted as result of hacking etc. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663277464387 | 74.8856619257381 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277032336 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662754377468}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662754373948}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662754370279}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662754380928}] | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 1663277032172 | 1662987517435 | 0.03182365553797939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6311235867441054 | 7rRviJIwYkpgsoEJKf1T | {"NO": 209.06646104103268, "YES": 24.113513610066263} | 1 | will-i-still-be-in-turkey-on-202207 | 250.77842543167853 | Will I still be in Turkey on 2022-07-18? | 1658167200000 | xUYqtAWzoBN24Rs5I3QxnAoDdiv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.061039626658512 | True | play | YES | public | 1647628625677 | Phi | "YES" iff, at any moment of 2022-07-18 UTC, I am in Turkey.
Mar 18, 9:37pm: I am in Kaş, Turkey, and I like it here so far but in principle I don't like Turkey. I ran away from Russia to avoided getting caught in closed borders and martial law. I'm looking for remote work or work with relocation. An acquaintance said that maybe he'll help me get visa and relocate to Czechia. Also, there's a US company I'm interviewing for and I think they might hire me - at first the work will be remote, but relocation is on the plate. I want to migrate to a better country at some point. Today I've signed a lease agreement for a year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.821766002263752, "platformFee": 0.29075055732250943, "liquidityFee": 1.7445033439350563} | 0 | 1658318249709 | 51.74450334393506 | phi | 1658161682685 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}] | ["turkey"] | 0.63 | 1658161678762 | 1647728720040 | 0.9368446447281361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2049876215580969 | 9fVNWNrOs5R2Lo1yx9wO | {"NO": 89.67383274428744, "YES": 985.3435390079233} | 0 | will-the-nytimes-wordle-for-march-2-e311366c1028 | 6852 | Will the NYTimes Wordle for March 23 start with a vowel? | 1648075795270 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7760832164707168 | True | play | NO | public | 1647628862224 | Alex Power | I would like a hint whether the wordle for Wednesday, March 23, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. Vowels are A E I O U and sometimes J W Y; if the word starts with J W or Y, then I will flip a coin to resolve the market.
There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has) changed the word list. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.406813760607545, "platformFee": 4.567802293434589, "liquidityFee": 27.406813760607545} | 0 | 1648075795270 | 127.40681376060756 | AlexPower | 1647628862224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 0.2 | 1647869171077 | 0.02292759763309047 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6 | what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-99b693525a17 | 714.0403930906879 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | 1672794870567 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.690746946421734 | True | play | abb644584351 | public | 1647631586124 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/
Rounded to nearest 5, i.e. acceptable answers "55", "60", "65", etc. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9216157236275149, "platformFee": 0.23040393090687872, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672794870567 | 780.0000000000002 | MetaculusBot | 1664736965042 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a21bb5930186", "prob": 0.617931597345699, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.08514365301595, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.92982210098292, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647631586326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.638", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 29.1608598390557, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e8f437aeb186", "prob": 0.007881249658996088, "text": "60", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.10983646844613101, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.826591534536579, "textFts": "'60':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647637648061, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.638", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 1.2323408557702975, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "84537d9d79b5", "prob": 0.03973595970359219, "text": "65", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.2639095305975394, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.54379160523988, "textFts": "'65':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647637660428, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.645", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 6.213259153652598, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "57275a77004c", "prob": 0.09132395975407925, "text": "70", "index": 3, "poolNo": 5.685041359019968, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.56632590898802, "textFts": "'70':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647637679305, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.636", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 17.93270482443738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "898c88b5f18d", "prob": 0.012130943018156346, "text": "55", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.2101976782795311, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.117200361998858, "textFts": "'55':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647637691735, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.637", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8968383628389924, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "45d7a136f839", "prob": 0.08466271701743444, "text": "75", "index": 5, "poolNo": 5.056020110424064, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.66353872895132, "textFts": "'75':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647638545749, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.637", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 16.624678977968944, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2400e1c3683", "prob": 0.04151600993602751, "text": "50", "index": 6, "poolNo": 1.6966491555241188, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.17069715589898, "textFts": "'50':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647638569081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.637", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 8.15223467834722, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "abb644584351", "prob": 0.07401235659746433, "text": "80", "index": 7, "poolNo": 3.271820844920649, "userId": "qCMkdLlW1IRTHSUSDoru5KvJc4H2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.93459272349613, "textFts": "'80':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1649005503744, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.636", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 11.572841213421697, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4743ba5d6b89", "prob": 0.030605206968550805, "text": "85", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.6327904618199136, "userId": "qCMkdLlW1IRTHSUSDoru5KvJc4H2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.043118133412072, "textFts": "'85':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1649005511801, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.637", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 3.5613331745222756, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "992e88ebb601", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "90", "index": 9, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'90':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1664736574943, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.637", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6276217836f9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "95", "index": 10, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "'95':1", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1664736582331, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.636", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672794870000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 8 | 1664736964882 | 1663395128833 | {"abb644584351": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB | we-are-unhappy-with-firebase-what-d | 380 | We are unhappy with Firebase. Assuming we switch, what database will we be using on June 1st? | 1647655349229 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.738581663407304 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647648897370 | James | Hello all,
We want to switch to a new database, because we've had problems using Firebase.
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are not very powerful. For example, you can't filter two fields simultaneously by the greater than operator '>'.
- Firebase cloud functions have extremely slow cold-start times (>5 seconds is common), and deploying new versions can take minutes.
We are actively researching alternatives, but we could use your help!
What database should we switch to? The rest of our tech stack is Nextjs, React, Typescript, and Tailwind.
Submit your answer below, or bet on which we will decide on! This is not a poll, this is a prediction market, and I will select our choice in one week.
(Our company is Manifold Markets, which runs this site!)
Mar 18, 9:01pm: Sorry, going to N/A this question in favor of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-database-will-manifold-be-prim | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647655349229 | 320 | JamesGrugett | 1654663141045 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1ae7e6550665", "prob": 0.6232686980609419, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.147996735299394, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.147233582225404, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647648897679, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.764", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647655349000, "totalLiquidity": 45.207756232686975, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cbb2ce829a8c", "prob": 0.04224376731301938, "text": "MongoDB", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0646275862729704, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.13737625927079, "textFts": "'mongodb':1", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647649003784, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.757", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647655349000, "totalLiquidity": 5.069252077562326, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ae3f7efed47d", "prob": 0.14058171745152356, "text": "Supabase", "index": 2, "poolNo": 6.822950475136521, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.71074650071143, "textFts": "'supabas':1", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647649011580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.765", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647655349000, "totalLiquidity": 16.869806094182827, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "83cab1cc8e66", "prob": 0.09695290858725762, "text": "Postgres", "index": 3, "poolNo": 5.082835415058298, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.342981294543016, "textFts": "'postgr':1", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647649090835, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.22", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647655349000, "totalLiquidity": 15.51246537396122, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3bd2782c4f43", "prob": 0.09695290858725762, "text": "FaunaDB", "index": 4, "poolNo": 3.8121265612937245, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.50723597090726, "textFts": "'faunadb':1", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647649167143, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:28.958", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647655349000, "totalLiquidity": 11.634349030470915, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1654663139580 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14562317209522255 | TMbnjV8fHtNQx5E3bMDU | {"NO": 142.41040969344624, "YES": 516.2290117963887} | 0 | will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20 | 4270.72560346122 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022? | 1672536911563 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.859957532333138 | True | play | NO | public | 1647655966445 | BCG | This resolves to "Yes" if Hunter Biden is indicted or arrested for any crime by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.346611986828396, "platformFee": 4.620945321281962, "liquidityFee": 27.725671927691764} | 0 | 1672536911563 | 181.6594938600565 | BruceGrugett | 1671898316409 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 48 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488066}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856951}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.4 | 1671898316219 | 1658790952077 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5038518616552939 | Qqso2ZFl5Y15ExepMvj6 | {"NO": 992.1138036347647, "YES": 1007.5184169853549} | 0.5000000000000009 | legacy-market-see-description-for-r | 149.59741003020255 | Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria | 1735649940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.565347613799853 | False | basic | public | 1647660071893 | Undox | I am trying to create a future grandfathered market.
If MM changes their AMM again them this M will be using “the old system” and then I might spring it into life to ask a fresh question.
Until then consider this a rugpull and don't bet.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 8.881784197001252e-16, "week": 8.881784197001252e-16, "month": 8.881784197001252e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5583658350803709, "platformFee": 0.5470061021281354, "liquidityFee": 1.2136316795426827} | 0 | 1000 | Undox | 1713835070639 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 11 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139733015}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1713835067166 | 1707189540923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10313804303625186 | 3qs3wRvfbHeBN4YG0cOz | {"NO": 113.67573419893037, "YES": 51.07289244918719} | 0.1 | how-many-manifold-prediction-market | 113.82553950763872 | How many Manifold prediction markets submitted to Hacker News will have at least 20 karma by May 1st? | 1651381140000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.328302944481708 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647669681007 | James | On close, this market will resolve to a probability in the range 0-100% which is equal to 10 times the number of qualifying Hacker News submissions.
To qualify, the link submitted to HN must be to an individual Manifold market and have at least 20 karma.
You can check the current submissions and their karma with this link: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&query=manifold.markets&sort=byPopularity&type=story | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.201240509130761, "platformFee": 0.36687341818846014, "liquidityFee": 2.201240509130761} | 0 | 1658093473355 | 102.04708604200103 | JamesGrugett | 1647669681007 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1647684613904 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000325767082476 | cu8Bh7xwe5qSFoA2Ua6z | {"NO": 104.97621878715813, "YES": 95.80471125692468} | 0 | ence-win-furia-today | 5 | Ence win Furia today? | 1647689400000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7679380783070155 | True | play | NO | public | 1647671968456 | Gaserd | "Yes" Ence win
Match - https://www.hltv.org/matches/2354550/furia-vs-ence-esl-pro-league-season-15 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1426872770511296, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854936, "liquidityFee": 0.1426872770511296} | 0 | 1647713835635 | 100.14268727705112 | Gaserd | 1647671968456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1647672462054 | 0.5228720968597527 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4890338993446919 | M45WDSDl5qPs4RhuQFjA | {"NO": 1.8337230386021877, "YES": 59.986486486486484} | 0.028425193993005495 | will-viv-3109-be-on-time-on-march-1 | 50 | Will VIV 3109 be on time on March 19 | 1647675900000 | ePoMr7epe7d52WIfkTN0SJhW0Zh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.975802535927137 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647672404497 | Nalin Bhardwaj | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1701103857039 | 10.08108108108108 | NalinBhardwaj | 1701102776225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0hr88AZobWuk2xGmm3RVFP7ym2ipSI8EZDRn3=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1701102775483 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7379623048049345 | DERFvZmrP7zMIDoscNrr | {"NO": 1197.497237543409, "YES": 141.3511168751774} | 1 | will-russia-use-a-hypersonic-missil | 4526 | Will Russia use a hypersonic missile in Ukraine in 2022? | 1647914462581 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.150395465988925 | True | play | YES | public | 1647684287393 | Bunyip | This resolves "YES" on mainstream media consensus.
Mar 19, 9:04pm:
There is mainstream media reporting of Russia's claims to have used hypersonics in the last week. There is Ukrainian confirmation of missile hits from unspecified Russian technology.
There is yet to be verification of Russia's claims, as opposed to current reporting of Russia's claims. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.084432104284982, "platformFee": 5.014072017380832, "liquidityFee": 30.084432104284982} | 0 | 1647914462581 | 230.08443210428507 | Bunyip | 1647684287393 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.75 | 1647914110126 | 0.9429470441039003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4536664212874799 | 74yjFkPKdHK8j13AMNVE | {"NO": 29.228206259369188, "YES": 492.1902539279284} | 0 | will-be-there-a-nuclear-war-in-2022 | 1380 | Will be there a nuclear war in 2022? | 1648245244610 | fwWXhGyVEybJCyLRKdMN7IxcAM43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6150693863000467 | True | play | NO | public | 1647685212118 | egirl |
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6116174283378495, "platformFee": 0.601936238056308, "liquidityFee": 3.6116174283378495} | 0 | 1648245244610 | 103.61161742833784 | egirl | 1647685212118 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxVsHsKSWiMT-YBDHXxCy4yhDG41mct6Nc07U7g=s96-c | 24 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471670}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.49 | 1647748786079 | 0.04699411525751808 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5009480610063666 | bTTeTHKqZI9SdK5l1LRn | {"NO": 523.8101161691051, "YES": 534.5809930459577} | 1 | will-i-find-a-cute-boyfriend-sooon | 514 | Will I find a cute boyfriend sooon? | 1648245172512 | fwWXhGyVEybJCyLRKdMN7IxcAM43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6923871295909059 | True | play | YES | public | 1647685394176 | egirl | Mar 19, 3:53pm: I'm a 22 year old blonde women if it matters. I'm not ugly but have masculine interests.
Mar 19, 8:38pm: Average isn't cute to me depending on the location I guess. Those will be different. An average scandanavian male might be cute but american? uhh | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.589134563097618, "platformFee": 2.431522427182937, "liquidityFee": 14.589134563097618} | 0 | 1648245172512 | 514.5891345630978 | egirl | 1647685394176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxVsHsKSWiMT-YBDHXxCy4yhDG41mct6Nc07U7g=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648147751382 | 0.4958596556433948 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5022794203964087 | wHnAEpgWnHgpyR6OcDrY | {"NO": 66.47934311794188, "YES": 39.67566041724792} | 0 | will-the-next-backyard-birds-of-aus | 30 | Will the next Backyard Birds of Australia video show a laughing kookaburra in frame? | 1648184340000 | OOlXfxzezDgMmfcp28nAjJGT3Yn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.356326223693461 | True | play | NO | public | 1647693535640 | ewired | Backyard Birds of Australia has a new video every Friday evening AEST according to the about page. This market will be resolved to YES if the next Backyard Birds of Australia video after market close shows at least one laughing kookaburra in frame. The market will be resolved to NO if no laughing kookaburras are shown in frame.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjtZK3Vu1ofLkPL7mbyLMkw | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6487401992152553, "platformFee": 0.10812336653587587, "liquidityFee": 0.6487401992152553} | 0 | 1648218862682 | 50.648740199215254 | ewired | 1647693535640 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhSqMxXsUz71okhLk5M--aSRzr9vrVTK9f-mgfW=s96-c | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112327}] | ["australia"] | 0.5 | 0.6283794979797596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7 | letter-frequency-in-the-march-25th | 24085.97213847121 | Letter frequency in the March 25th NYTimes Wordle. | 1648250141910 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.622178368795304 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647706259468 | Alex Power | I would like a hint regarding letter frequency for the wordle for Friday, March 26, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has) changed the word list.
There will be five different answers related to letter frequency. The patterns are ROUGH, EAGER, LEVEL, GEESE, and <resolution risk>.
Mar 19, 11:17am: the market is for Friday, March 25. This typographical error will not cause the market to resolve as <resolution risk> | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.231477904976014, "platformFee": 4.5578694762440035, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648250141910 | 600 | AlexPower | 1647706259468 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1991566853b1", "prob": 0.00020069363160033646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00030330019922990807, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.5109564084989688, "textFts": "", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706259810, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02140732070403589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "068a38599c8b", "prob": 0.9258453421442305, "text": "Five different letters - ROUGH, ALERT, or ABOUT", "index": 1, "poolNo": 111.68797910721082, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.945537121908776, "textFts": "'alert':5 'differ':2 'five':1 'letter':3 'rough':4", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706288615, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 31.608684932697315, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "672954f0646a", "prob": 0.00023033608098770616, "text": "One double letter - EAGER, TREES, or ALLOW", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.001072159888033434, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.653690929923583, "textFts": "'allow':7 'doubl':2 'eager':4 'letter':3 'one':1 'tree':5", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706324201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 0.07063639816956323, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4557de49e904", "prob": 0.04531044161966048, "text": "Two double letters - LEVEL or AMASS", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.0529192842641855, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.18497570476451, "textFts": "'amass':6 'doubl':2 'letter':3 'level':4 'two':1", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706393070, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 4.833113772763785, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4d66b2de3052", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "A triple letter - PUPPY or GEESE", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'gees':6 'letter':3 'puppi':4 'tripl':2", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706403203, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5db6f2ab0f34", "prob": 0.02831318652352089, "text": "<resolution risk> - for any reason, the answer is not clear to me", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.7088451827569814, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.327022191906604, "textFts": "'answer':5 'clear':8 'reason':3", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706437771, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.841", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648250141000, "totalLiquidity": 4.152600690116397, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661917350387}] | ["improperly-resolved"] | 1648250017328 | {"068a38599c8b": 90, "5db6f2ab0f34": 10} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15036321067571026 | Dinfh0NFdfzvTyuvveA0 | {"NO": 97.44920763276266, "YES": 164.0919085338012} | 0 | will-most-boston-public-school-kids | 247 | Will most Boston public school kids be wearing facemasks in school in 2025? | 1648364340000 | FeFnCckzhESN0YZmdzDlCAK7Jz52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.256382534318771 | True | play | NO | public | 1647718392877 | Daniel Kokotajlo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.69697613194801, "platformFee": 0.44949602199133504, "liquidityFee": 2.69697613194801} | 0 | 1686422021489 | 102.696976131948 | DanielKokotajlo | 1660256835481 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVjTFK7BPLbT8JWnBLD31jNJp6zVL33JphVQrdOA=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477929}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}] | ["politics-default", "medicine"] | 0.15 | 1660256833750 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv | who-is-emperor-belos-from-the-owl-h | 237 | Who is Emperor Belos from the Owl House? | 1650748737445 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.948363053102803 | True | play | 3cb34018c0bc | public | 1647718973845 | Tetra | This will resolve at the answer that gives the identity or origin of Emperor Belos from the Owl House.
Close date updated to 2022-05-28 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.199495951554697, "platformFee": 0.5498739878886743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650748737445 | 500.00000000000017 | Tetraspace | 1647718973845 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d52347441ae7", "prob": 0.006306139102282764, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03684006961285582, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.805097289415596, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647718973986, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.408", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.46245020083406946, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3cb34018c0bc", "prob": 0.7762272460163393, "text": "Phillip Wittebane", "index": 1, "poolNo": 30.563245563218345, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.810849742082237, "textFts": "'phillip':1 'witteban':2", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647718996035, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.445", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 16.410001958801786, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b34250b5a446", "prob": 0.06503211311594766, "text": "Phillip Wittebane's brother", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.6298442503068467, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.80931917681446, "textFts": "'brother':4 'phillip':1 'witteban':2", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719011135, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 9.971590677778641, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b35abe7957d2", "prob": 0.001576534775570691, "text": "A descendant of Phillip Wittebane", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0045940886239458295, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.9094479579796966, "textFts": "'descend':2 'phillip':4 'witteban':5", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719026847, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.455", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.11561255020851736, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0cfc8819c8cd", "prob": 0.004963300779034056, "text": "A descendent of Phillip Wittebane's brother", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.039727753237787766, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.964573216311648, "textFts": "'brother':7 'descend':2 'phillip':4 'witteban':5", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719043301, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5625074216238598, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0e055b634665", "prob": 0.0018287803396620016, "text": "A witch native to the Boiling Isles' world", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.005740387638487572, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.1331754865055452, "textFts": "'boil':6 'isl':7 'nativ':3 'witch':2 'world':8", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719073625, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.13411055824188012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "19c56c36797c", "prob": 0.0019549031217076566, "text": "Another human or half-human native to the Boiling Isles' world", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00634474545886946, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.239210181747532, "textFts": "'anoth':1 'boil':10 'half':5 'half-human':4 'human':2,6 'isl':11 'nativ':7 'world':12", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719091580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1433595622585615, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "972a7101d49b", "prob": 0.0020810259037533124, "text": "Another human or half-human native to Earth", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.006968992790405272, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.3418565926269035, "textFts": "'anoth':1 'earth':9 'half':5 'half-human':4 'human':2,6 'nativ':7", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719098962, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15260856627524294, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d5d3beb679c9", "prob": 0.0022071486857989675, "text": "A witch native to Earth", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.007612523003650338, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.44141791732424, "textFts": "'earth':5 'nativ':3 'witch':2", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719110982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.44", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1618575702919243, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a3cacfc26642", "prob": 0.0023332714678446225, "text": "A demon", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.008274782496188092, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5381546022645933, "textFts": "'demon':2", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719146889, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.44", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.17110657430860568, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5ce48255fb9", "prob": 0.002459394249890278, "text": "A construct built by the Titan", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.008955263406734268, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.632292335319576, "textFts": "'built':3 'construct':2 'titan':6", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719200581, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18035557832528706, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "baedce8b87f9", "prob": 0.13303014244216876, "text": "A construct built by someone else", "index": 11, "poolNo": 3.8214177020904208, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.904535919673748, "textFts": "'built':3 'construct':2 'els':6 'someon':5", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647719225872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:26.445", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650748737000, "totalLiquidity": 9.755543779092378, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548394}] | ["culture-default"] | 1647793706164 | {"3cb34018c0bc": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8046917517834775 | N94hK5ajKqcJLksKEgQ8 | {"NO": 464.3584364834204, "YES": 56.1099483596234} | 0 | will-alex-power-resolve-all-of-his | 650 | Will Alex Power resolve all of his first three Wordle markets honorably? | 1647816600000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.4815104900488345 | True | play | NO | public | 1647722318908 | Gurkenglas | If Alex Power goes into a NO position here and closes any of his first three Wordle markets within 8 hours of that, I may resolve this whichever way loses him money.
Mar 19, 9:42pm: https://manifold.markets/AlexPower
Mar 26, 12:17am: 5 minutes ago, on the third market: "I did so bad with the hint, I think I may just steal all the money. I will think it over for an hour first.". He resolved one minute later. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.348991120797831, "platformFee": 0.3914985201329718, "liquidityFee": 2.348991120797831} | 0 | 1648251057156 | 82.34899112079782 | Gurkenglas | 1647722318908 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272484817}] | ["trust"] | 0.8 | 1647731331462 | 0.9715079356749373 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.50837512111039 | 8uY2wgxpd5Z4I4ZV1Mib | {"NO": 223.70249746658934, "YES": 12.753417877067633} | 1 | will-i-andor-my-spouse-attend-the-a | 246.90400543600234 | Will I and/or my spouse attend the ACX meetup organizers retreat? | 1658093760000 | F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.159903776386905 | True | play | YES | public | 1647725801194 | tigrennatenn | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7091391247227115, "platformFee": 0.18372217592969076, "liquidityFee": 1.1023330555781445} | 0 | 1685833301441 | 51.10233305557815 | tigrennatenn | 1658072535719 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529464830}] | ["acx"] | 0.5 | 1658072534373 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6403725029174072 | yIapkflrJhJgNvqxL4h5 | {"NO": 959.8322775777328, "YES": 976.6334402176052} | 0.6363665648625955 | will-the-sixth-novel-in-the-a-song | 5539.34354966072 | Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? | 2515705200000 | RtEWAzXFu6cFqseKoG587E7bXaU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641094935744023 | False | basic | public | 1647736561744 | hyperion | This market resolves to "YES" if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series of fantasy novels is released before the death of the author, George R. R. Martin.
Mar 20, 12:36am: Trading ends on 20th September 2049 - GRRMs 100th birthday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006008112669569021} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.95744922133603, "platformFee": 1.8651727665735311, "liquidityFee": 9.8026440931067} | 0 | 1000 | hyperion | 1719208691403 | 0 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1694351146302}] | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.1076849385523434 | 0.5 | 1719208688373 | 1712759060891 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | 3253IXihA3n2VTF9IpRX | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.8 | undox-will-believe-that-gurkenglas | 0 | Undox will believe that Gurkenglas was right on their disagreement. | 1647742200000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.866326804175673 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647741140288 | Gurkenglas | Mar 20, 2:52am: Conditional on Gurkenglas revealing his evidence to Undox.
Mar 20, 2:55am: Do you hear the sounds of chicken in the distance?
Close date updated to 2022-03-20 3:10 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653147606355 | 50 | Gurkenglas | 1647741140288 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5027033086533719 | XpZ7bx0Y4MrRmIMjLGEU | {"NO": 248.3336617472267, "YES": 49.64688440880322} | 1 | ence-win-sprout | 410 | Ence win Sprout? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8918168599776326 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754834742 | Gaserd | Yes - ENCE win
No - ENCE lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/b5cya0oQ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3029232504763835, "platformFee": 0.8838205417460638, "liquidityFee": 5.3029232504763835} | 0 | 1647839457569 | 105.30292325047638 | Gaserd | 1647754834742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8348848848565068 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5013024245736781 | zqvKqktZoDOZDRj6DbSO | {"NO": 139.86486486486484, "YES": 73.95788750627462} | 1 | faze-win-furia | 40 | Faze win Furia? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.791097571529856 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754893392 | Gaserd | YES - Faze win
NO - Faze lose
Statistcs - https://www.flashscore.com/match/p2gXatWJ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8108108108108104, "platformFee": 0.1351351351351351, "liquidityFee": 0.8108108108108104} | 0 | 1647839483296 | 100.8108108108108 | Gaserd | 1647754893392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6552936525969477 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4995778047130686 | zIpqIwbRcsXmSnLOqObr | {"NO": 85.06355142298693, "YES": 119.91803278688525} | 1 | vitality-win-outsiders-virtus-pro | 20 | Vitality win Outsiders (Virtus Pro)? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7677847003055867 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754970015 | Gaserd | YES - Vitality win
NO - Vitality lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/rcFlycgJ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246} | 0 | 1647839507214 | 100.49180327868852 | Gaserd | 1647754970015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.41457150270560045 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500121272864049 | JF9Um0AzJjKADD6OHydn | {"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770496} | 0.5447322636767833 | team-liquid-win-og | 10 | Team Liquid win OG? | 1647795600000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.765773451990329 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647755035075 | Gaserd | YES - Team Liquid win
NO - Team Liquid lose
statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/MsVwzrnk/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1647802390262 | 100.27149321266968 | Gaserd | 1647755035075 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5447322636767833 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uykObXAa2AG7etGUfSj7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | t1-win-drx | 0 | T1 win DRX? | 1647766800000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | YES | public | 1647755098140 | Gaserd | YES - T1 win
NO - T1 lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/lnIDJlPk/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647776200902 | 100 | Gaserd | 1647755098140 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5237172799027596 | mknMhgLRldNlnIpyA2Rg | {"NO": 60.38901311355628, "YES": 16.142562915936676} | 1 | manifold-will-allow-me-to-sort-my-t-a2d9bf83bb53 | 476.45169956084067 | Manifold will allow me to sort my trades by profit by Sun. Apr 3rd | 1648969260000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.008370193119635 | True | play | YES | public | 1647760307576 | Em ✨ | The ordering is all messed up. Resolves if i can go down the list and it's a steady decrease in either profit amnt or percentage of invesment. (If my much older bets are a little oddly placed because of the lack of loans that's fine.)
Apr 1, 9:29pm: yeaaah I still cannot tell how it's coming to the order it does. It would make sense if it were resolve-at-prob minus invested, or sell-price-minus-invested, but it's not consistently decreasing on either of those.
Incredible. I almost resolved this early last night. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.856090660516376, "platformFee": 0.47601511008606284, "liquidityFee": 2.856090660516376} | 0 | 1648987686588 | 27.781169299440947 | hamnox | 1647760307576 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648966711639 | 0.8044414105960657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21871498457235708 | pCh8moTbctVzR9UkoUPD | {"NO": 95.0972337253166, "YES": 982.5317236302113} | 0 | will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022 | 2110.6512313397675 | Will Russia use WMDs in 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4096048163051584 | True | play | NO | public | 1647765440479 | Keepcalmandchill | There have been warnings of a false flag chemical attack by Russia in Ukraine by Western countries. This market resolves Yes if Russia uses nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.925930478577813, "platformFee": 1.6246206332321107, "liquidityFee": 9.747723799392663} | 0 | 1672538708901 | 189.53709578200932 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672481064701 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421215}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224580}] | ["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672481064597 | 1654906637652 | False | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22431356028059143 | GWhf9NOrrkllog52ifTn | {"NO": 110.74132068505816, "YES": 1714.1324696053584} | 0 | will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-test | 6896.899933898455 | Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6109186769200248 | True | play | NO | public | 1647765552380 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.278500798713052, "platformFee": 1.5464167997855087, "liquidityFee": 9.278500798713052} | 0 | 1672538724730 | 228.45554278127975 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672423032341 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 59 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125145}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1672423031200 | 1666082537074 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.741872911604569 | MbAxc8zAp47prq8Ja1lt | {"NO": 1264.2219523974088, "YES": 169.01998893386525} | 1 | will-covid-spread-become-uncontroll | 6730.68475308382 | Will Covid spread become uncontrolled in China during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9031572770675895 | True | play | YES | public | 1647765686141 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves Yes if during 2022, Covid spreads in China to an extent where lockdowns and other emergency measures are no longer able to effectively control the spread for any long period of time.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.21216561060406, "platformFee": 4.6617223357547255, "liquidityFee": 27.97033401452835} | 0 | 1672538755169 | 380.49645783857613 | Keepcalmandchill | 1710206837490 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 51 | [{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["china", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.5 | 1672480196833 | 1671986295788 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2211482588182907 | kDm7yM23JJFFe7e0xOuv | {"NO": 113.31802463541841, "YES": 1153.6756367936741} | 0 | will-the-iran-nuclear-deal-be-reviv | 1744.884069596808 | Will the Iran nuclear deal be revived? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.967190411592931 | True | play | NO | public | 1647766074074 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves to a Yes if the Iran nuclear deal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) is brought back into effect. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.253685912177372, "platformFee": 0.45421330013317407, "liquidityFee": 2.7252798007990444} | 0 | 1672540524614 | 222.72527980079903 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672479948923 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502474}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525589}] | ["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "iran"] | 0.5 | 1672479948740 | 1661359149175 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5012231610012969 | RpCtOvcy4MOZzt9akFCu | {"NO": 6.54163845181585, "YES": 106.4309585020094} | 0 | more-than-5-000-000-refugees-moved | 158.67629594463733 | More than 5 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01 | 1654074922802 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.895265782441866 | True | play | NO | public | 1647766781115 | Account deletion requested | More than 2 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01, according to the official statistics.
To the first approximation, it will be count of people who moved through the Ukrainian border since war started.
People who left Poland are included.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-at-least-5-million-refugees-fr "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?" is related
https://manifold.markets/M/more-than-2-000-000-refugees-moved resolved as yes | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2547460364321594, "platformFee": 0.3757910060720267, "liquidityFee": 2.2547460364321594} | 0 | 1654074922802 | 24.254746036432163 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1654074915804 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653427482631 | 1654074914132 | 0.05817212853628317 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5895698754750797 | 5v5dPuss9ZRLOOa7uVe0 | {"NO": 874.0863949287534, "YES": 39.76924227016547} | 1 | will-sorting-my-manifold-trades-by | 1581.4132229058048 | Will sorting my Manifold trades by profit work correctly by the end of April 10? | 1649011808769 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2461230606058864 | True | play | YES | public | 1647770410188 | Anna | Currently when I sort markets I've traded in in "Your trades" by profit, the resulting sorting is not correct (e.g. it is not the case that all markets with positive profit are listed before all markets with negative profit). Will it be correct by the end of April 10 (Pacific time)?
For this to resolve YES, the sorting should be correct both when I filter for just open markets and when I filter for just resolved markets. If this is fixed before April 10 I may resolve YES early. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.79512176417388, "platformFee": 2.7991869606956477, "liquidityFee": 16.79512176417388} | 0 | 1649011808769 | 113.5442453579388 | tcheasdfjkl | 1647770410188 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.55 | 1649011802440 | 0.9690157429069611 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.491521145826884 | Jq5sXFGq5GDk83GT9D3Y | {"NO": 36.94911338769762, "YES": 81.09603955676275} | 0.30576129478651526 | does-training-order-matter-to-trans | 98.74818436639023 | Does training order matter to Transformer neural nets? | 1650491940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.24532715508453 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647775743362 | Gurkenglas | On the EleutherAI Discord, Stella Biderman several weeks ago presented the surprise: Shuffle a training dataset, train a GPT on it, and its final loss on the ith datum is uncorrelated with i to, if i remember correctly, 10 (!) significant digits. Perhaps there's no way at all to deduce the training order from the trained model. But nobody seems to be rushing for this trove of possible experiments.
This market resolves to my subjective probability in a month for the question: Is there any measurement at all that one can take about a model and a training datum that correlates as above?
I wish there weren't 0-13% fees on each trade in this market. I would pay the fees in place of my traders if I could. Aaaaiiiiieee. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.113843745191749, "platformFee": 0.35230729086529144, "liquidityFee": 2.113843745191749} | 0 | 1653696669970 | 52.05634424689017 | Gurkenglas | 1653696659379 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653696656759 | 0.30576129478651526 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR | what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch | 148 | What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do? | 1649270466773 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.948199085047036 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647785398883 | Tetra | I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve at the intervention that the highest-scoring charity by this metric is performing. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously.
An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043.
This would have resolved "Vitamin A supplementation" for 2021 and 2020, and "Deworming" for 2019, 2018 and 2017. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649270466773 | 660 | Tetraspace | 1668218082583 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0d0a49fe3d95", "prob": 0.0062988158226253465, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04234786732829133, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.680799549711241, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785399054, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5319000027994737, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2a6d35e0287", "prob": 0.14991181657848324, "text": "Malaria chemoprevention", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.870550534276877, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.98359244142888, "textFts": "'chemoprevent':2 'malaria':1", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785455783, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 30.648638056045463, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "47f309d0bf89", "prob": 0.12585034013605442, "text": "Bednets", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.85249918468535, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.54303487740904, "textFts": "'bednet':1", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785460194, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 20.69538926681784, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "71260328e756", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Cash transfers", "index": 3, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'cash':1 'transfer':2", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785467887, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d9ba1ddede18", "prob": 0.027273872511967754, "text": "Unconditional cash transfers", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5683298042073184, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.269554656752, "textFts": "'cash':2 'transfer':3 'uncondit':1", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785535410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 3.3940819126004316, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5a838de43f8e", "prob": 0.0668934240362812, "text": "Conditional cash transfers for vaccination", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.2288714841621986, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.090868329923545, "textFts": "'cash':2 'condit':1 'transfer':3 'vaccin':5", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785557268, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 8.32451499118166, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0d1e071c4fad", "prob": 0.09290753338372386, "text": "Deworming", "index": 6, "poolNo": 4.889560464473499, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.73868491449686, "textFts": "'deworm':1", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785571087, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 15.278127711990146, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e3187d690bb8", "prob": 0.5250322751322751, "text": "Vitamin A supplementiation", "index": 7, "poolNo": 142.01396729247998, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.47219902310772, "textFts": "'supplementi':3 'vitamin':1", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785580789, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 135.0734861845973, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "37441bb2842d", "prob": 0.005731922398589065, "text": "AI Safety", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.036751053073244416, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.374894206166628, "textFts": "'ai':1 'safeti':2", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647795633303, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.499", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649270466000, "totalLiquidity": 0.484029002547521, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1668218087528 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2572341537880051 | LrJxYeQYEaFXy0o5ArPV | {"NO": 82.30287251440194, "YES": 13.790180885847219} | 0.6739390010777043 | did-you-know-that-you-can-lose-m-if | 39 | Did you know that you can lose M$ if a market resolves N/A? | 1648418340000 | U8DTevvfFecjxyyEN9QTeR0nCIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.93286495749111 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647791397743 | Tobias Dänzer | This is meant to be a survey, so this market will resolve as PROB.
This question was prompted by me thinking I could get M$ by buying and selling in this survey market slated to resolve N/A (https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when ), only to learn that my investment of 300 M$ had somehow turned into 250 M$ after the market resolved N/A. Note that that market used an old trading algorithm, and I don't know if this problem persists in new markets. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.029238776555211, "platformFee": 0.1715397960925352, "liquidityFee": 1.029238776555211} | 0 | 1648427437567 | 51.02923877655521 | TobiasDanzer | 1647791397743 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzXaoN0AV39U9HOqnpyJjNzldH3F9_wqGbCPNJ8=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1647957593706 | 0.6739390010777043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24953650226757873 | xJSlh1j4iTCI09RqHbgF | {"NO": 23.731344638538786, "YES": 493.8135887846041} | 0 | will-a-general-covid19-vaccine-mand-42ef052dde87 | 446.1352828656436 | Will a general Covid-19 vaccine mandate in Austria be generally enforced in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 6awvfZlo4qRHe9uh3mPR6EASFSi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.863257083434455 | True | play | NO | public | 1647791929340 | Eugen Grue | Austria did set-up a mandate, but has now "paused" it. Plan was to initially not enforce it at all, then not for real (only if violation was found during a random drivers license check et al.).
Resolves yes only if the mandate will be proactively enforced, i.e. some gov agency starts checking only for vaccination mandate compliance (instead of only on happenstance during very rare other checks). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3067700985135544, "platformFee": 0.051128349752259064, "liquidityFee": 0.3067700985135544} | 0 | 1672567307944 | 50.30677009851355 | EugenGrue | 1667246402400 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxgIvuNqBGUgp4YpKXpF5X2l8owWfp9NRNs4-Gw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512458}, {"name": "Austria", "slug": "austria", "userId": "6awvfZlo4qRHe9uh3mPR6EASFSi1", "groupId": "fxKeBbD3cWK6v7jLqwSk", "createdTime": 1667296153109}] | ["politics-default", "medicine", "austria"] | 0.25 | 1667246402201 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9794918697605677 | RjGzkLqXoepafhxP20Xh | {"NO": 40.21534560094513, "YES": 9.60171337137814} | 1 | will-the-workers-party-of-korea-rem | 167 | Will the Worker's Party of Korea remain in power in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as of April 15, 2022? | 1648439940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1647798696785 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if the Worker's Party of Korea remains in power in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as of April 15, 2022. If it falls from power during or prior to this date, this market resolves no. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14233490599842907, "platformFee": 0.023722484333071513, "liquidityFee": 0.14233490599842907} | 0 | 1649641977541 | 10.142334905998428 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647798696785 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1647800479461 | 0.9950258767902053 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.511124823826145 | vjsZqvpiLcTB9D6qEiOy | {"NO": 483.4413573303001, "YES": 25.535483408621417} | 1 | will-the-2022-sweet-sixteen-games-b | 450 | Will the 2022 Sweet Sixteen games be more exciting than usual? | 1648267140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6253610085437376 | True | play | YES | public | 1647803182296 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if the simple average of all 2022 March Madness Sweet Sixteen men’s college basketball games’ excitement indicies is greater than 3.7. These values can be found in the lower-right hand corner of each game box at the top of FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness 2022 predictions page here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-march-madness-predictions/
The values averaged for resolution of this market will be the four from the games on March 24th and the four from the games on March 25th (select those dates from the dropdown if not selected by default).
According to my calculations from previous years, the average excitement index of a Sweet Sixteen game (across 40 games rated since FiveThirtyEight introduced its excitement index in 2016) is 3.7. Here are the year-by-year averages:
2016: 3.2
2017: 4.9
2018: 3.4
2019: 3.7
2021: 3.5
For more information on FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness excitement index, see their methodology page here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-march-madness-predictions-work-2/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9099918666580047, "platformFee": 0.6516653111096675, "liquidityFee": 3.9099918666580047} | 0 | 1648299519556 | 103.909991866658 | dglid | 1647803182296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.9519086922115654 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD | which-sweet-sixteen-march-madness-g | 658 | Which Sweet Sixteen March Madness game will be the most exciting according to FiveThirtyEight? | 1648267140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.782323917516577 | True | play | 1b673239db90 | public | 1647804279352 | David Glidden | Help me figure out which game(s) I should plan to watch! This market will resolve to the 2022 men’s college basketball March Madness game in the Sweet Sixteen round that ends with the highest excitement index according to FiveThirtyEight.
These values can be found in the lower-right hand corner of each game box at the top of FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness 2022 predictions page here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-march-madness-predictions/
This market will consider the four games on March 24th and the four games on March 25th (select those dates from the dropdown on the above link if not selected by default). Acceptable answers are preferably listed in the following format: “Gonzaga vs. Arkansas”
For more information on FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness excitement index, see their methodology page here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-march-madness-predictions-work-2/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.676878420377165, "platformFee": 2.669219605094291, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648299592331 | 580 | dglid | 1647804279352 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bf4b062de9f2", "prob": 0.1329717868298256, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.397377247990085, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.672624688719637, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647804279592, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.622", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 11.228728665629717, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3ae370b6d007", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Gonzaga vs. Arkansas", "index": 1, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'arkansa':3 'gonzaga':1 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647804317108, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.624", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ec9470d27889", "prob": 0.24736111972764752, "text": "UCLA vs. UNC", "index": 2, "poolNo": 23.319704259078993, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 70.95422320678442, "textFts": "'ucla':1 'unc':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647804350916, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.617", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 40.6771619107687, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "56a9fb01bd20", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Kansas vs. Providence", "index": 3, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "'kansa':1 'provid':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647804369897, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.617", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0dc04b6ffb3b", "prob": 0.035902382444052916, "text": "Arizona vs Houston", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5850533646201954, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.710616303872989, "textFts": "'arizona':1 'houston':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647805931353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.623", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 3.031756739720024, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d70baf18c465", "prob": 0.0788087073709205, "text": "Iowa State vs Miami", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.8685465866760644, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.53030681888716, "textFts": "'iowa':1 'miami':4 'state':2 'vs':3", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647831405592, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.622", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 9.807305806158995, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e4de1a7c2b26", "prob": 0.06415888714539085, "text": "Duke vs Texas Tech", "index": 6, "poolNo": 3.4344680998808235, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.096200100425605, "textFts": "'duke':1 'tech':4 'texa':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647831450122, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.621", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 13.116928038613242, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e354e3a1029e", "prob": 0.021607915359846658, "text": "Michigan vs Villanova", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.27116518066325435, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.278179638002248, "textFts": "'michigan':1 'villanova':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647831522528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.624", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8246684081648288, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1b673239db90", "prob": 0.41898920112231597, "text": "Purdue vs Saint Peter's", "index": 8, "poolNo": 87.01609109207428, "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 120.66489653001858, "textFts": "'peter':4 'purdu':1 'saint':3 'vs':2", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647929240870, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.622", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648299592000, "totalLiquidity": 102.46847138545502, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648180557034 | {"1b673239db90": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8851426066172864 | hyifikdIJZwGpa3ke3nr | {"NO": 35.72246688334765, "YES": 29.54981746100107} | 0 | will-russian-and-allied-forces-cont | 44 | Will Russian and allied forces control Mariupol as of April 15, 2022? | 1648439940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.033106625165018 | True | play | NO | public | 1647812708520 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if Russian and allied (DNR, LNR, White Russian, etc.) forces control Mariupol as of April 15, 2022. If it is still contested or Ukrainian forces control it, it resolves to "no". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6338190217621631, "platformFee": 0.10563650362702719, "liquidityFee": 0.6338190217621631} | 0 | 1650001621694 | 29.633819021762157 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647812708520 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.9030655107501453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21937405783350852 | VvMS9lXPIciry6YZD2Nd | {"NO": 24.664218621812015, "YES": 0.16037388870944197} | 1 | has-russia-used-a-hypersonic-missil | 169 | Has Russia used a hypersonic missile in Ukraine before March 20 2022? | 1648406858200 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.772994139552827 | True | play | YES | public | 1647813151741 | Account deletion requested | note: there are already claims that hypersonic missile was used but it appears to be dubious
I plan to keep it open until situation becomes clear (note: with new payout model it should be fair)
Mar 20, 10:52pm: as delimiting moment in time opening of this market will be taken | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8384538334812516, "platformFee": 0.1397423055802086, "liquidityFee": 0.8384538334812516} | 0 | 1648406858200 | 10.83845383348125 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647813151741 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.1 | 1647915362000 | 0.9773853518111469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7963770765645549 | YQcTvctwUImvtIyoP7HH | {"NO": 1222.50554510053, "YES": 123.60652467888404} | 1 | will-anthony-albanese-be-the-prime | 2049.76809825041 | Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia in 2023? | 1672491600000 | rzbOeFS2DrcyzjXHuZwnqoLzYGS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0099169986126815 | True | play | YES | public | 1647817346678 | Danny Wardle | This market resolves to 'YES' if and only if Anthony Albanese is the Prime Minister of Australia on January 1 2023 at 12:00am. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.260369442760528, "platformFee": 2.68617342052093, "liquidityFee": 16.11704052312558} | 0 | 1672500734606 | 196.11704052312564 | DannyWardle | 1671536290322 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwAwSntbCb6hKP_CjVJzSVo9ZC0dgpv7SZrV1Oi=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492389}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112326}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648280406}] | ["politics-default", "australia"] | 0.75 | 1671536290141 | 1647830146889 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21440419686258017 | ZF1655eH84cBxsJXn9T8 | {"NO": 69.08544736650538, "YES": 7143.368418163613} | 0 | will-canada-sign-a-formal-agreement | 7152.715127567912 | Will Canada sign a formal agreement with a Nuclear Waste Management Site by January 1 2024? | 1704135540000 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5303264900446276 | True | play | NO | public | 1647820410341 | Jasper Woodard | This market will resolve Yes if Canada's NWMO signs a site agreement as outline in Step 6 of their selection process.
Nuclear energy has positive momentum in most media that I read in 2022, and the case for nuclear would be even stronger with an answer for nuclear waste storage. Nuclear experts seem to agree by consensus that the best option is permanent storage deep underground. However, no such site capable of storage on the 100,000 year time-scale has ever been built. Canada has two locations currently under review for its site selection process , and is planning to select a site in 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6715260625496843, "platformFee": 0.11192101042494738, "liquidityFee": 0.6715260625496843} | 0 | 1704156404156 | 220.67152606254967 | JasperWoodard | 1704156404359 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529902}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1668527433925}, {"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-power", "userId": "NnFJuUAa1eNnR8ydYGfdJ7DvFdy1", "groupId": "GAhreYQjzbNxlucwUxQ2", "createdTime": 1684775491503}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139534898}] | ["science-default", "nuclear-risk", "canada", "nuclear-power", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.3 | 1704119139188 | 1704085367756 | 0 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10152950699729457 | PaNsNDcL3XgPNR6Gj511 | {"NO": 92.87547448484887, "YES": 78.06826678743225} | 1 | will-the-christmas-day-2022-wordle | 221.02071613234588 | Will the Christmas Day 2022 Wordle start with a vowel? | 1671541140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.11552473048232 | True | play | YES | public | 1647827235150 | Undox | Let there be no mistake: The future wordle list is baked into the code of the Wordle page. Hence all those rigged Wordle markets you've lost money in.
Currently the Christmas Day Wordle is, well I won't spoil it, but let's say it is known and it doesn't start with a vowel. But things change, woke gets more woke and more words get cancelled. Coders need to keep their jobs relevant so make changes to the code. So maybe it will start with a vowel after all. Let's see.
Rules: Based on NYC time zone at mid day, the word that correctly solves the puzzle. NA if wordle is canned. Ho ho ho! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7237842525971596, "platformFee": 0.12063070876619328, "liquidityFee": 0.7237842525971596} | 0 | 1673822299390 | 90.72378425259717 | Undox | 1673822523280 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 8 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670560440}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.1 | 1671447002956 | 1673822519044 | 0.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21252530860031182 | pA7PoPnHnQrpsZTNidjf | {"NO": 91.99617996678448, "YES": 6.414921470617465} | 1 | will-ukraine-plant-more-than-25-of | 49.641614519128204 | Will Ukraine plant more than 25% of its Spring Barley crop in 2022? | 1656597540000 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.028581086496538 | True | play | YES | public | 1647839516858 | Bunyip | This market resolves "YES" with USDA, Rosstat or another reputable source.
Mar 21, 4:11pm: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0934791626766163, "platformFee": 0.18224652711276937, "liquidityFee": 1.0934791626766163} | 0 | 1703047194558 | 50.97993751658762 | Bunyip | 1703047191243 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505137}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072278}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225539}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.2 | 1655152382447 | 1703047189466 | False | 0.79 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20975128328735101 | vMpHKwjGNnXfpnm289x1 | {"NO": 279.37832097458164, "YES": 2.5814271095321146} | 1 | will-ukraine-plant-more-than-25-of-58a9258267a2 | 191.6460000095899 | Will Ukraine plant more than 25% of its Corn crop in 2022? | 1659275940000 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.118404249368208 | True | play | YES | public | 1647839759737 | Bunyip | This market resolves "YES" against USDA, Rosstat or other reputable data.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7905344670079657, "platformFee": 0.37250583961089867, "liquidityFee": 2.2350350376653916} | 0 | 1659392777019 | 102.05837942229982 | Bunyip | 1659117707319 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510594}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227008}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.2 | 1659117706072 | False | 0.9663593042831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24246299421691136 | psxdYpcX2D4GU6HCmKlq | {"NO": 89.10705372691362, "YES": 1087.178209139226} | 0 | will-a-nato-peacekeeping-mission-in | 1580.0114619373453 | Will a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine actually happen? | 1672491600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2196199934206833 | True | play | NO | public | 1647851673226 | Keepcalmandchill | Some NATO countries have proposed a joint peacekeeping mission into Ukraine. This question will resolve Yes if that actually happens by the deadline. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.143596231494078, "platformFee": 1.3572660385823463, "liquidityFee": 8.143596231494078} | 0 | 1672540204452 | 188.1435962314941 | Keepcalmandchill | 1671065686573 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0.5 | 1671065686450 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2920625209498406 | Mjft5Ea3QiGDYSkIurvL | {"NO": 151.28039764238423, "YES": 2608.6643340898495} | 0 | will-manifold-dollars-become-cheape | 4809.953338647109 | Will Manifold Dollars become cheaper to buy in bigger quantities? | 1704027600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7905534673992998 | True | play | NO | public | 1647851901889 | Keepcalmandchill | Currently the price of 1 Manifold $ is the same in USD regardless of the quantity bought. This question resolves Yes if that changes by the deadline so that is cheaper to buy a larger quantity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.111314027944154, "platformFee": 5.000378902054464, "liquidityFee": 30.00227341232678} | 0 | 1704097708192 | 380.00107721035874 | Keepcalmandchill | 1704097708657 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128590180}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1700769005552 | 1654745657258 | 0.02 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5097712627089288 | 4S9TvlstrrzRXT1EC9Vd | {"NO": 54.33894657792426, "YES": 580.1881151039902} | 0 | will-mariupol-fall-by-april | 1907.3468025304685 | Will Mariupol fall by April? | 1648731600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.372173733497383 | True | play | NO | public | 1647852087760 | Keepcalmandchill | This question resolves to Yes if Russia occupies Mariupol in Ukraine by the deadline. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.78252752056818, "platformFee": 6.297087920094698, "liquidityFee": 37.78252752056818} | 0 | 1648755458970 | 135.2728683441328 | Keepcalmandchill | 1647852087760 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648686869316 | 0.08874779325685105 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5164043236061095 | xnNro3DkEW4ri9ShR0PW | {"NO": 129.62797351890129, "YES": 25.01458509851929} | 1 | will-the-w3igg-grift-counter-exceed-9087c1df6fd8 | 450.76308840857735 | Will the "W3IGG Grift Counter" exceed $250 million in April 2022? | 1650438575988 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.434356563899679 | True | play | YES | public | 1647864026375 | Zhao Nan | https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ maintains a counter of the amount of money that is stolen/lost through "web3" applications (see lower right of the page).
This market resolves YES if this Grift Counter reports more than $250 million for April.
Resolution will happen once the counter exceeds $250 million, or shortly after the end of March.
Mar 28, 4:19pm: last sentence should end "...after the end of April." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.072028456207681, "platformFee": 0.3453380760346135, "liquidityFee": 2.072028456207681} | 0 | 1650438575988 | 51.365802134355995 | ZhaoNan | 1647864026375 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1650396974466 | 0.8469465525249956 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23296234436207686 | AOloQ1ekIlygIzGQbOck | {"NO": 786.8219525942418, "YES": 10888.639473938914} | 0 | will-tether-usdt-be-unpegged-in-202 | 42850.26587434909 | Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5254875684805533 | True | basic | NO | public | 1647865608645 | Zhao Nan | Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far bot been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose.
This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2022 (as reported by [2]).
[1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/
[2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.211834406453262, "platformFee": 1.4635054093464759, "liquidityFee": 8.781032456078854} | 0 | 1672592441838 | 1518.654012588333 | ZhaoNan | 1672588899248 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 0 | 1 | 71 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441386}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448986447}] | ["crypto-prices", "stablecoins"] | 0.5 | 1672424677266 | 1672588896953 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999861816615404 | CGe2Cb2wc4QpSz362lE1 | {"NO": 90.20122871445935, "YES": 110.99504975001238} | 1 | will-equatorial-guinea-remove-the-m | 14.999999999999998 | Will Equatorial Guinea remove the mandatory confinement of travelers before 2023? | 1668897198142 | Xrzcgl5uRMUVEaan5VqLgk5SkYH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.776777833054328 | True | play | YES | public | 1647869777488 | Sebastián Ortega | At the opening of this market, all travelers are required to confine for 14 days even if not showing symptoms of covid. This market resolves positively if this restriction is removed or required only for people with symptoms before 2023 according to the [embassy of Guinea site](https://embajada-guinea-ecuatorial.com/medidas-preventivas-covid-19/) or any other official government site. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.029701499925746253, "platformFee": 0.004950249987624376, "liquidityFee": 0.029701499925746253} | 0 | 1668897198142 | 100.02970149992575 | SebastiánOrtega | 1668897210064 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiscTtlhiAT5UlJw6TLukibndehNzgzL9CfAMpLvQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}] | ["medicine"] | 0.5 | 1667245223229 | 1668897207091 | 0.44832317154555845 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7574373178029687 | MGTW2monTDsds7CoxQTb | {"NO": 1098.6919977340822, "YES": 970.0808136316516} | 0.7795725089839286 | will-international-space-station-be | 2202.781519714534 | Will International Space Station be in orbit on January 1, 2030? | 1830365940000 | NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60578872789187 | False | basic | public | 1647871332192 | paleink | This market will be resolved to yes if, at 01.01.2030, International Space Station will still be orbiting Earth. Whether or not it will have any astronauts on board - doesn't matter
Close date updated to 2028-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0022826914267063403} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.852386531567674, "platformFee": 0.8448017593161695, "liquidityFee": 5.0688105558970165} | 0 | 1000 | paleink | 1719502055779 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 20 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461610}] | ["space"] | 0.65 | 1719502052515 | 1648031131903 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008102589549331 | YYt150JFsgUGKBVBod1n | {"NO": 64.49082696917506, "YES": 40.11041760971323} | 1 | will-the-country-of-turkey-be-recog | 17 | Will the country of Turkey be recognized as "Turkiye" or "Türkiye" at the 77th UNGA in September 2022? | 1654191454437 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.375283729415758 | True | play | YES | public | 1647873126786 | Alex Power | There has been discussion about the possibility of the country of Turkey changing its English name to Turkiye or Türkiye. TRTWorld (Turkish state media) changed its style in December 2021.
This market will resolve based on how the country's name is spelled at the 77th UN General Assembly, scheduled to be held in September 2022.
The market will resolve as N/A if the UNGA does not meet in September 2022, and may resolve early to "Yes" if there is an official statement from the UN that confirms a change and that the new spelling will be used at the 77th UNGA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4202987984257291, "platformFee": 0.07004979973762152, "liquidityFee": 0.4202987984257291} | 0 | 1654191454437 | 50.420298798425726 | AlexPower | 1654191450256 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}] | ["turkey"] | 0.5 | 1654191448178 | 0.6173057185458408 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41896860654720897 | nHp54cN1ZFxZpWFafi6L | {"NO": 82.15303649566061, "YES": 2328.5347996872074} | 0 | will-nato-membership-for-ukraine-be | 3082.2828484754336 | Will NATO membership for Ukraine be off the table before the end of the year? | 1672559940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9729017258290615 | True | play | NO | public | 1647881063069 | Mike Blume | Between now and closing, this market will immediately resolve YES if:
* Russia annexes Ukraine
* Russia installs a Kremlin-friendly government in Ukraine
* NATO heads state formally/publicly that they will not consider Ukraine for membership in NATO
* Ukraine government states formally/publicly that they will not seek membership in NATO
In the unlikely event that Ukraine joins NATO while this market is open, it will immediately resolve NO.
Otherwise this market will resolve NO after close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.256544177083144, "platformFee": 1.1187118832142817, "liquidityFee": 6.712271299285691} | 0 | 1672562410937 | 666.7122712992858 | MichaelBlume | 1672558563249 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 1 | 36 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663005758186}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663005755462}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663005751228}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1663005763470}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222878}] | ["world-default", "wars", "ukraine", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.85 | 1672558563144 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM | which-member-of-the-grace-is-4-guys | 349 | Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first? | 2209103940000 | EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1647881447723 | Ansh Radhakrishnan |
Close date updated to 2040-01-01 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 400 | anshr | 1683386473243 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxH9CLFQxzyW0Zsjv7UwjWqgsnNO64-X0QosomB=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e6142c7aa804", "prob": 0.08701629815264399, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2685088392780774, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.80142159258952, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881447909, "probChanges": {"day": -0.912983701847356, "week": -0.912983701847356, "month": -0.912983701847356}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.792", "probChangeDay": -0.912983701847356, "probChangeWeek": -0.912983701847356, "totalLiquidity": 7.348042955112159, "probChangeMonth": -0.912983701847356}, {"id": "6a7cebffaf62", "prob": 0.13930439171256775, "text": "Tim", "index": 1, "poolNo": 4.732531372949805, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.24006141303087, "textFts": "'tim':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881549194, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:02:38.477", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 11.763481966839054, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2beec54f0c89", "prob": 0.18151599794641537, "text": "SK", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.2183568257243875, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.54869901171916, "textFts": "'sk':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881558914, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0771132422836977, "week": -0.0771132422836977, "month": -0.0771132422836977}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.0771132422836977, "probChangeWeek": -0.0771132422836977, "totalLiquidity": 15.328017604363964, "probChangeMonth": -0.0771132422836977}, {"id": "a065ffc3efe3", "prob": 0.021754074538160997, "text": "Vivek", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.2739415933157516, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.318715144860041, "textFts": "'vivek':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881570092, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12617491954467924, "week": -0.12617491954467924, "month": -0.12617491954467924}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.12617491954467924, "probChangeWeek": -0.12617491954467924, "totalLiquidity": 1.8370107387780397, "probChangeMonth": -0.12617491954467924}, {"id": "4591ad9c35a5", "prob": 0.023494400501213878, "text": "Ansh", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.30773738956294255, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.790591701534437, "textFts": "'ansh':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881574631, "probChanges": {"day": -0.11426070153960244, "week": -0.11426070153960244, "month": -0.11426070153960244}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.11426070153960244, "probChangeWeek": -0.11426070153960244, "totalLiquidity": 1.983971597880283, "probChangeMonth": -0.11426070153960244}, {"id": "554edb6175f7", "prob": 0.1943509019239304, "text": "Tucker", "index": 5, "poolNo": 8.060796566396583, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.4146814818175, "textFts": "'tucker':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881585124, "probChanges": {"day": -0.011994198361543723, "week": -0.011994198361543723, "month": -0.011994198361543723}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.011994198361543723, "probChangeWeek": -0.011994198361543723, "totalLiquidity": 16.41185394024301, "probChangeMonth": -0.011994198361543723}, {"id": "84df6d280027", "prob": 0.0696130385221152, "text": "Eric", "index": 6, "poolNo": 1.6079597038983924, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.490582437564996, "textFts": "'eric':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881595529, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0583869614778848, "week": -0.0583869614778848, "month": -0.0583869614778848}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.0583869614778848, "probChangeWeek": -0.0583869614778848, "totalLiquidity": 5.878434364089728, "probChangeMonth": -0.0583869614778848}, {"id": "7bd7b3548cdb", "prob": 0.0696130385221152, "text": "Michael", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1.6079597038983924, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.490582437564996, "textFts": "'michael':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881600224, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0692758503667737, "week": -0.0692758503667737, "month": -0.0692758503667737}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:08.791", "probChangeDay": -0.0692758503667737, "probChangeWeek": -0.0692758503667737, "totalLiquidity": 5.878434364089728, "probChangeMonth": -0.0692758503667737}, {"id": "48cf67beb704", "prob": 0.21333785818083723, "text": "Major", "index": 8, "poolNo": 13.825577598200816, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.98044284324129, "textFts": "'major':1", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881608691, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:02:39.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 26.548711240281964, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [] | [] | 1683386472985 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | rzgOknHDYxa7FM8042Cp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-richard-rapport-qualify-for-th | 0 | Will Richard Rapport qualify for the 2022 Candidates Tournament. | 1648161453944 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.967372415006668 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647889352772 | Alex Power | This market resolves to YES if:
1) after the end of the third FIDE Grand Prix tournament, Rapport qualifies for the candidates based on his performance in that event. The market will close as YES on or around April 4 if he qualifies that way.
OR
2) Rapport participates in the Candidates Tournament as a replacement for a different candidate. The market will close as YES after he completes his first match in the Candidates.
The market will close on or around June 30th as "N/A" if the market was not resolved as yes in April and the Candidates tournament was not held on schedule, or "NO" otherwise.
Mar 24, 5:36pm: I am resolving this market as "NO ACTION". This is different from a "CONDITIONAL NOT MET" failure. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648161453944 | 100 | AlexPower | 1647889352772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10441743341749296 | 0DuA6ZVXfnCvAwBp94GW | {"NO": 8.187853104664924, "YES": 245.4975407169219} | 0 | will-russia-announce-that-they-are | 780.5633720368915 | Will Russia announce that they are returning the Kuril Islands to Japan by July 1st, 2022? | 1656745140000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1647890301740 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9383197203799452, "platformFee": 0.14347944627010942, "liquidityFee": 0.8608766776206563} | 0 | 1660166647401 | 10.860156244961066 | GustavoLacerda | 1660164551494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1656743403175 | 1660164549840 | 0.0038735107783460874 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8117819693125217 | EmRhMDvrN2gM8uz3OiPG | {"NO": 1366.5382175272482, "YES": 71.3232370371672} | 1 | will-manifold-raise-2m-in-seed-fund | 3060.7789322741005 | Will Manifold raise $2M in seed funding before the end of April? | 1649541842194 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.742928127040678 | True | play | YES | public | 1647898542707 | Manifold | Resolves YES if Manifold Markets secures reasonable offers for investments totaling $2M or more before the end of April 2022. (Having the money wired by this time is not necessary, as long as we have a reasonable expectation that investors will follow through.)
If we raise less than $2M, we resolve according to the proportional amount of $2M we've raised, i.e. if we only raise $1M, this market will be resolved at 50%.
We currently have investor commitments totaling $1M, and have just signed a SAFE for $250k.
If you are an accredited investor and interested in learning more, please contact us at raise@manifold.markets!
Apr 9, 5:02pm: We met our fundraising goal! Official announcement coming soon. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.962675513957624, "platformFee": 1.9937792523262707, "liquidityFee": 11.962675513957624} | 0 | 1649541842194 | 111.93303500905644 | Manifold | 1647898542707 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.8 | 1647922376128 | 0.988043416079227 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01187047250462166 | et6LX0XgxI66z180Rtu2 | {"NO": 10.543374299191584, "YES": 0.13043038027861692} | 0.49266391092291384 | test-1d966434c091 | 1101 | test | 1647900678796 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647899374425 | Isaac King | test | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.026770448076686534, "platformFee": 0.004461741346114423, "liquidityFee": 0.026770448076686534} | 0 | 1647900678796 | 10.026770448076686 | IsaacKing | 1647899374425 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.49266391092291373 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012423389588069739 | 7pVU676nTtVkSTPkiFBl | {"NO": 9.487858868155971, "YES": 550.0663558458177} | 0.000216934296936321 | test-66c1ce29365f | 1101 | test | 1647900668367 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900434005 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.026317527724944875, "platformFee": 0.004386254620824146, "liquidityFee": 0.026317527724944875} | 0 | 1647900668367 | 10.026317527724945 | IsaacKing | 1647900434005 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.000216934296936321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013413454277691238 | Vntfq3ZKb11OP4uf4z7F | {"NO": 9.181047942061767, "YES": 1100.0004137754304} | 0.00011346334218172726 | test-94c724f5998d | 1101 | test | 1647900662270 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900554302 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00791037819061684, "platformFee": 0.0013183963651028066, "liquidityFee": 0.00791037819061684} | 0 | 1647900662270 | 10.007910378190616 | IsaacKing | 1647900554303 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00011346334218172728 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9830298018140534 | RZ37pTYSwH15ObB9bDst | {"NO": 4.812995876938639e-06, "YES": 11.999928502460515} | 2.3233065192109248e-05 | test-f67895fa095b | 2 | test | 1647901485365 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900783114 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00042898523689192947, "platformFee": 7.149753948198824e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00042898523689192947} | 0 | 1647901485365 | 10.00042898523689 | IsaacKing | 1647900783114 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 2.3233065192109272e-05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pctV6HUthNRvoCGAaZue | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-will-be-our-favorite-questions | 0 | What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA? | 1647900979759 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900968051 | Austin | Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I will consult the rest of the Manifold team as well. Probably don't invest too much mana here. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Rehash of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-will-be-my-favorite-questions , since it was fairly popular last time around! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647900979759 | 100 | Austin | 1647900968051 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy | what-will-be-our-favorite-questions-43f9189067ba | 476 | What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA? | 1648161900000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.720876373137258 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647901291055 | Austin | Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I will consult the rest of the Manifold team as well. Probably don't invest too much mana here. I'm likely to skew towards useful/helpful questions than funny ones, but feel free to ask anything.
Rehash of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-will-be-my-favorite-questions , since it was fairly popular last time around!
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-24 3:45 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.560502924061915, "platformFee": 3.1401257310154786, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648161975254 | 999.9999999999999 | Austin | 1647901291055 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "295dec1ed3ac", "prob": 0.04988525765929778, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.726181423934286, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.83085321932445, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647901291306, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.783", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 3.1691810748259766, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "12a45a2e277f", "prob": 0.026392643162756416, "text": "How much of his workday does stevo spend pondering what math?", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.449879446339873, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.595758747818476, "textFts": "'math':11 'much':2 'ponder':9 'spend':8 'stevo':7 'workday':5", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647901655219, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.777", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7324148215559583, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9c6efb4f2ea1", "prob": 0.09014266059035107, "text": "What was the genesis story for MM. Where were you when one of you said \"I got a cool idea...\"", "index": 2, "poolNo": 6.342253288244314, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.01570205397012, "textFts": "'cool':19 'genesi':4 'got':17 'idea':20 'mm':7 'one':12 'said':15 'stori':5", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647907049622, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.78", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 20.14953589666671, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e80e9ecd88f1", "prob": 0.06487413092113871, "text": "How did you build such a strong community, including the likes of Scott Alexander for example.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.4525236196386393, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.351815102369656, "textFts": "'alexand':14 'build':4 'communiti':8 'exampl':16 'includ':9 'like':11 'scott':13 'strong':7", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647907085006, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.78", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 9.311345849857556, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "166b223b4af9", "prob": 0.020094870063209456, "text": "Are you thinking of more changes to the interface to make it easier to engage with CFMM peculiarities?", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5281307570545571, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.753738963590287, "textFts": "'cfmm':17 'chang':6 'easier':13 'engag':15 'interfac':9 'make':11 'peculiar':18 'think':3", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647956441001, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.78", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6879996821890297, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "034f333f1683", "prob": 0.006430209712283482, "text": "Supposing great artists steal, where do you each get your inspirations from?", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0328634649021399, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.077928620052972, "textFts": "'artist':3 'get':9 'great':2 'inspir':11 'steal':4 'suppos':1", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647956579083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.783", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4085074405450683, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8761e5248bfd", "prob": 0.033082256214868246, "text": "What's the riskiest assumption you're betting this venture on? (I.E. if 2 years from now MM has bombed, what do you think would have caused it?)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.6335219441215774, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.51637944128792, "textFts": "'2':14 'assumpt':5 'bet':8 'bomb':20 'caus':27 'i.e':12 'mm':18 're':7 'riskiest':4 'think':24 'ventur':10 'would':25 'year':15", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647956784436, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.783", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 3.424986525774595, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c6385c842d91", "prob": 0.2284529278431738, "text": "What is your plan for abandoned markets? Market is never resolved, funds are lost? \"Cancelled\" acting like N/A which applied by admins if market creator disappeared? Notably https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president is stuck abandoned with significant amount of manifold points.\n\nDisclosure: I have some manifold points stick there and I have created https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4 about fate of such markets", "index": 7, "poolNo": 27.787441023391303, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.84567300903888, "textFts": "'/drp/will-donald-trump-by-the-president':30 '/m/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4':54 'abandon':6,33 'act':16 'admin':22 'amount':36 'appli':20 'cancel':15 'creat':51 'creator':25 'disappear':26 'disclosur':40 'fate':56 'fund':12 'like':17 'lost':14 'manifold':38,44 'manifold.markets':29,53 'manifold.markets/drp/will-donald-trump-by-the-president':28 'manifold.markets/m/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4':52 'market':7,8,24,59 'n/a':18 'never':10 'notabl':27 'plan':4 'point':39,45 'resolv':11 'signific':35 'stick':46 'stuck':32", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647994953743, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.782", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 51.06594857670944, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a6e02bcf7365", "prob": 0.03772158517718295, "text": "Do you have an idea how to deal with \"X chance\" giving absurd results for very likely or very unlikely events? See for example https://manifold.markets/markets?s=most-likely \n\n\"Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?\" sits at 98% which is patently absurd. And calibrating chance for display using such control questions would in turn be problematic and lose info.\n\n\"Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022?\" sitting at 0.5% looks extrasilly ( https://manifold.markets/markets?s=least-likely )", "index": 8, "poolNo": 1.3706930251506888, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.96640730380882, "textFts": "'/markets?s=least-likely':81 '/markets?s=most-likely':27 '0.5':76 '000':63 '1':29,30 '1st':33 '2022':73 '2023':34 '67':62 '98':37 'absurd':13,41 'calibr':43 'chanc':11,44 'control':49 'deal':8 'die':68 'display':46 'event':21 'exampl':24 'extrasilli':78 'give':12 'idea':5 'info':58 'januari':32 'least':61 'like':17 'look':77 'lose':57 'manifold.markets':26,80 'manifold.markets/markets?s=least-likely':79 'manifold.markets/markets?s=most-likely':25 'nuclear':70 'patent':40 'peopl':64 'problemat':55 'question':50 'result':14 'see':22 'sit':35,74 'turn':53 'u.k':67 'unlik':20 'use':47 'war':71 'would':51 'x':10", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648030171959, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.777", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 6.923020338400636, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ae387b9dc079", "prob": 0.02723735068197659, "text": "Are you considering having some sort of metrics on things like calibration? Like, if, when buying something you could make a private note about how likely you actually think it is?", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.28954674314166456, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.340956440608233, "textFts": "'actual':28 'buy':16 'calibr':12 'consid':3 'could':19 'like':11,13,26 'make':20 'metric':8 'note':23 'privat':22 'someth':17 'sort':6 'thing':10 'think':29", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648054906455, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.577", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7303728668549834, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "29a79042ff88", "prob": 0.02823505583516254, "text": "Since the current motivation is 'fake internet points', would that be problematically interfered with if people were allowed to exchange M$ ? Like, then you couldn't say you'd earned your M$, because you could have been given it. So then maybe you'd want a second non-exchangable currency representing forecaster-reputation?", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.3057575546684723, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.523247227666578, "textFts": "'allow':18 'could':35 'couldn':25 'currenc':51 'current':3 'd':29,44 'earn':30 'exchang':20,50 'fake':6 'forecast':54 'forecaster-reput':53 'given':38 'interf':13 'internet':7 'like':22 'm':21,32 'mayb':42 'motiv':4 'non':49 'non-exchang':48 'peopl':16 'point':8 'problemat':12 'repres':52 'reput':55 'say':27 'second':47 'sinc':1 'want':45 'would':9", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648055124513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.576", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7937564883515025, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bcc4a476b618", "prob": 0.03252019946809623, "text": "Would being able to exchange M$ be problematic because you couldn't know if actual money had exchanged hands between the two parties outside of your system, thus it would effectively create a real money exchange value for M$, thus violate the 'not real money' law shelter?", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.6172663387980903, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.36374696659864, "textFts": "'abl':3 'actual':15 'couldn':11 'creat':32 'effect':31 'exchang':5,18,36 'hand':19 'know':13 'law':46 'm':6,39 'money':16,35,45 'outsid':24 'parti':23 'problemat':8 'real':34,44 'shelter':47 'system':27 'thus':28,40 'two':22 'valu':37 'violat':41 'would':1,30", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648055258470, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.582", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 3.3667971214029038, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c27808ae36ec", "prob": 0.07132313729443134, "text": "What is the most ridiculous thing you've seen a user do on the platform so far?", "index": 12, "poolNo": 2.836966774736756, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.93928091085483, "textFts": "'far':17 'platform':15 'ridicul':5 'seen':9 'thing':6 'user':11 've':8", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648065316596, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.582", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 10.236967941083085, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d1f3455e9fad", "prob": 0.0034969565619167742, "text": "Are you going for Breadth of covering crypto ideas (try lots of things and stick with whatever gets promising preliminary results) or Depth (fine tune each project addition before adding the next)?", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.02144666599451895, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.111505120733843, "textFts": "'ad':30 'addit':28 'breadth':5 'cover':7 'crypto':8 'depth':23 'fine':24 'get':18 'go':3 'idea':9 'lot':11 'next':32 'preliminari':20 'project':27 'promis':19 'result':21 'stick':15 'thing':13 'tri':10 'tune':25 'whatev':17", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648095982031, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.582", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 0.36203785582197195, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e378c1b7990", "prob": 0.012353284992651991, "text": "What's your plan for the issue where buying an answer and then selling it loses you mana?", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.08777032641962654, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.01724882207685, "textFts": "'answer':11 'buy':9 'issu':7 'lose':16 'mana':18 'plan':4 'sell':14", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648150526467, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.582", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 0.78479692894495, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "209fe9deb68e", "prob": 0.26765747382150257, "text": "By revealing evidence I can move a market's price quickly. This is useful when I'm too poor to correct it myself, or when it is long-term. How else could this be incentivized?", "index": 15, "poolNo": 16.75860670256957, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.853531353196715, "textFts": "'correct':21 'could':33 'els':32 'evid':3 'incentiv':36 'long':29 'long-term':28 'm':17 'market':8 'move':6 'poor':19 'price':10 'quick':11 'reveal':2 'term':30 'use':14", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648155441665, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.581", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 27.720773760343818, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "675eeeb3ed28", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "What are your answers to the questions you haven't answered yet in descending order of market price?", "index": 16, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "'answer':4,11 'descend':14 'haven':9 'market':17 'order':15 'price':18 'question':7 'yet':12", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1648155640255, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.582", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648161975000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648161840103 | {"166b223b4af9": 33.333333333333336, "9c6efb4f2ea1": 33.333333333333336, "c6385c842d91": 33.333333333333336} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | prJmD43kceuGtzwOFyqg | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.99 | test-71d0f7d6b7a3 | 0 | test | 1647901552570 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647901511758 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647901552570 | 10 | IsaacKing | 1672616713182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1672616711441 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9710000394398315 | alnCCwKIqon4ykfR3QmJ | {"NO": 0.9953515854354474, "YES": 30.072799716224825} | 0.5256653448367508 | test-3b2018b14cef | 82 | test | 1647910828872 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.153763573353217 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647902072592 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05668584952195879, "platformFee": 0.00944764158699313, "liquidityFee": 0.05668584952195879} | 0 | 1647910828872 | 10.05668584952196 | IsaacKing | 1647902072592 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.5256653448367506 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | Y0m6DepMazhRpMrOawMr | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.99 | new-test | 0 | new test | 1647903268771 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647903224063 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647903268771 | 10 | IsaacKing | 1647903224063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9865758420064574 | M7RW3eGAw0aVngwuUJIz | {"NO": 0.001660844154590215, "YES": 10.999928672359445} | 0.010974629499165355 | so-much-testing | 1 | so much testing | 1647910769669 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647904155508 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0004279658433224374, "platformFee": 7.132764055373957e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0004279658433224374} | 0 | 1647910769669 | 10.000427965843322 | IsaacKing | 1647904155508 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.010974629499165379 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002842117966589 | dMg54VaJOXjwANknD03b | {"NO": 20.662474582278307, "YES": 275.8945581894519} | 0.08 | this-market-resolves-to-1-higher-th | 797 | This market resolves to 1% higher than its ending probability, modulo 101 | 1648537140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.146282516000486 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647906673972 | Isaac King | For example, if it closes at 85%, it resolves to PROB 86%. If it closes at 100%, it resolves to 0%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.888538766682036, "platformFee": 2.148089794447006, "liquidityFee": 12.888538766682036} | 0 | 1648566861025 | 62.888538766682025 | IsaacKing | 1647906673972 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648107449855 | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EhtdKI8GL2rWOnTONkz0 | test-59c0a875d469 | 100 | test | 1647907472621 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647907456851 | Isaac King | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647907472621 | 220 | IsaacKing | 1647907456851 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b8171818d7aa", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EhtdKI8GL2rWOnTONkz0", "createdTime": 1647907456999, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.091", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1647907472000, "totalLiquidity": 0, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs | in-a-competitive-magic-tournament-t | 91 | In a competitive Magic tournament, the player going first draws a card on their first turn of the game. What penalty do they get, and how is it fixed? | 1648105140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.293597507653411 | True | play | b5a0c205cf59 | public | 1647908072590 | Isaac King | If there are multiple correct answers, I'll choose the one that's most specific, ignoring any that seem like they were submitted with excessive specificity in order to take advantage of this clause. If there are no correct answers, I'll add the correct answer myself, then resolve to it. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8000000000000002, "platformFee": 0.20000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648142221867 | 280 | IsaacKing | 1647908072590 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b7d7ed429849", "prob": 0.15378700499807765, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.363750828457441, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.52903893358707, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs", "createdTime": 1647908072786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.347", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648142221000, "totalLiquidity": 26.656414199666795, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0090d85c36f8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "The player going first starts with 6 cards, their opponent with 7.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0001733420006500542, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.733246664499892, "textFts": "'6':7 '7':12 'card':8 'first':4 'go':3 'oppon':10 'player':2 'start':5", "contractId": "8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs", "createdTime": 1647908675391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.351", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648142221000, "totalLiquidity": 0.017333333333333336, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b5a0c205cf59", "prob": 0.8461129950019224, "text": "This is an IPG 2.3 Gameplay Error - Hidden Card Error:\nhttps://blogs.magicjudges.org/rules/ipg2-3/\nThe fix is that the player who draws the extra card reveals their hand, then the opponent selects a card to shuffle back in to the player's library.\n\n> If a set affected by the error contains more cards than it is supposed to contain, the player reveals the set of cards that contain the excess and their opponent chooses a number of previously unknown-cards sufficient to reduce the set to the correct size. These excess cards are returned to the correct location. If that location is the library, they should be shuffled into the random portion unless the owner previously knew the identity of the card/cards illegally moved; that many cards, chosen by the opponent, are returned to the original location instead. For example, if a player playing with Sphinx of Jwar Isle illegally draws a card, that card should be returned to the top of the library.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 76.92926220433733, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.991528114173908, "textFts": "'/rules/ipg2-3/':13 '2.3':5 'affect':46 'back':36 'blogs.magicjudges.org':12 'blogs.magicjudges.org/rules/ipg2-3/':11 'card':9,24,33,52,65,80,92,127,153,155 'card/cards':122 'choos':73 'chosen':128 'contain':50,58,67 'correct':88,97 'draw':21,151 'error':7,10,49 'exampl':140 'excess':69,91 'extra':23 'fix':15 'gameplay':6 'hand':27 'hidden':8 'ident':119 'illeg':123,150 'instead':138 'ipg':4 'isl':149 'jwar':148 'knew':117 'librari':42,104,164 'locat':98,101,137 'mani':126 'move':124 'number':75 'oppon':30,72,131 'origin':136 'owner':115 'play':144 'player':19,40,60,143 'portion':112 'previous':77,116 'random':111 'reduc':83 'return':94,133,158 'reveal':25,61 'select':31 'set':45,63,85 'shuffl':35,108 'size':89 'sphinx':146 'suffici':81 'suppos':56 'top':161 'unknown':79 'unknown-card':78 'unless':113", "contractId": "8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs", "createdTime": 1647926114129, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.351", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648142221000, "totalLiquidity": 32.8078943995899, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852267997}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 1647926164192 | {"b5a0c205cf59": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5020755606034039 | oNmxF8ebeeBIiD4eNfQW | {"NO": 32.95622715439844, "YES": 12.83303418103251} | 1 | who-i-win-the-magic-game-in-the-des | 13 | Who I win the Magic game in the description? | 1648018740000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.144043408941945 | True | play | YES | public | 1647910008735 | Isaac King | I'm on Legacy Elves vs. my partner on Legacy Delver. I'm going first.
Elves opening hand: Windswept Heath, Verdant Catacombs, Gaea's Cradle, Nettle Sentinel, Heritage Druid, Quirion Ranger, Green Sun's Zenith.
Delver opening hand: Island, Volcanic Island, Daze, 2xBrainstorm, Expressive Iteration, Dragon's Rage Channeler.
Resolves to YES if Elves wins, NO if Delver wins, PROB 50% if it's somehow a draw. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26263707360935185, "platformFee": 0.04377284560155864, "liquidityFee": 0.26263707360935185} | 0 | 1648053508794 | 20.26263707360935 | IsaacKing | 1647910008735 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852237370}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.5 | 1647995831788 | 0.7214086767698288 |
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