p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4 | if-there-is-a-bilateral-ceasefire-o | 1030.9392715253975 | If there is a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, when will it take effect? | 1669870740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.681770532184399 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573125003 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10250/date-of-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2022/
Acceptable answers: whole month, i.e. "May", "June", etc.
Expected to resolve Jan 1, 2023. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.524919187319083, "platformFee": 0.38122979682977076, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754152822 | 1180 | MetaculusBot | 1673754152622 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d85efe017658", "prob": 0.47557010110701836, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.05633579068785, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.349785233464075, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7Opgykxj1Te4umfxpFu4", "createdTime": 1647573125232, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 9 | 10 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671065744460}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065735325}, ... | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "world-default", "how-it-ends"] | 1669398242243 | 1673754149138 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8 | how-many-refugees-will-leave-ukrain-3636a8e4a73d | 2199.7398012336675 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? | 1656647940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6651429378556 | True | play | c98aa8963d3f | public | 1647573249031 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/
Rounded to nearest 500k, i.e "5.5 million, "6 million", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.32793874190947, "platformFee": 6.831984685477368, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660133632309 | 659.9999999999999 | MetaculusBot | 1656537066345 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "eb2f69b35441", "prob": 0.2633844233896626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.145746381363423, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.171662666300385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y0fVaoSuGFvlS5ojHik8", "createdTime": 1647573249235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1656537066160 | 1653918918685 | {"c98aa8963d3f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24662690571724497 | MxSj9lN7S4Ppg5hzjbrB | {"NO": 303.14806351491876, "YES": 2955.9863725367645} | 0 | will-russia-control-cherkasy-on-jun | 2673.47255048839 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2000878187723933 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573308191 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10044/will-russia-control-cherkasy-on-june-1-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.519872844271832, "platformFee": 2.5866454740453055, "liquidityFee": 15.519872844271832} | 0 | 1654218693159 | 515.4034174689212 | MetaculusBot | 1647573308231 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416681}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372293}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war",... | ["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | False | 0.032481928395935215 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9 | if-caida-measures-a-major-disruptio | 2896.6667038987835 | If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it happen? | 1659326340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.660714192265328 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573436733 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10265/ukraine-without-internet-when/
Acceptable answers: month prior to August 2022, i.e. "April", "May", etc.
Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.306668155951347, "platformFee": 0.5766670389878368, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660133497834 | 540 | MetaculusBot | 1657656448475 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "02aa8af327d7", "prob": 0.21781651412949501, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.881794025221804, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.3036809683591, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dHHYixuQjnREhzWw2qi9", "createdTime": 1647573436936, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1657656447209 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31641015319045396 | 1rQ4tv2HmsixbPc8onjK | {"NO": 158.46681983161352, "YES": 6913.330504334514} | 0 | will-caida-measure-a-major-disrupti | 8359 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | 1659326340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5671728327992516 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573533182 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10251/major-disruption-to-ukrainian-internet-access/
Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.166055998925053, "platformFee": 1.9345769053992192, "liquidityFee": 11.607461432395315} | 0 | 1660133462355 | 511.6074614323953 | MetaculusBot | 1660052863692 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371489}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.32 | 1659290818829 | 1660052859115 | 0.010498381226730767 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37492260356857815 | 6XqrLCZDCBOCa8rF533v | {"NO": 46.47027650600599, "YES": 1155.3081661622882} | 0 | will-the-nytimes-wordle-for-march-2 | 8292 | Will the NYTimes Wordle for March 21 start with a vowel? | 1647871442074 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1947968755910656 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573569571 | Alex Power | I would like a hint whether the wordle for Monday, March 21, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. Vowels are A E I O U and sometimes Y; if the word starts with Y, then I will flip a coin to resolve the market.
There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.09537965481132, "platformFee": 5.569979006138967, "liquidityFee": 33.09537965481132} | 0 | 1647871442074 | 128.09537965481132 | AlexPower | 1647573569571 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 0.5 | 1647851416740 | 0.01035432115857316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14412994899506082 | BY2t3Ha9fxwPKwMOtfYL | {"NO": 672.7476598983912, "YES": 4367.664284246015} | 0 | will-there-be-a-serious-radiation-i-3b923a78b1ac | 6334.224181086471 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9879585218989089 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573612053 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/
Expected to resolve around Feb 1, 2024.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3073512180795355, "platformFee": 0.25865507989815345, "liquidityFee": 1.5519304793889206} | 0 | 1704926908676 | 901.5519304793888 | MetaculusBot | 1704926909043 | 0.2 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 15 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414311}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125143}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": ... | ["world-default", "nuclear-risk", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11550781035755772 | 0.1 | 1703472364488 | 1682342365121 | False | 0.03 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX | what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-575e2c442520 | 508 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | 1647631644852 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.708909919861901 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647573700031 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/
Rounded to nearest whole number.
Expected to resolve around Mar 1, 2023.
Mar 18, 3:22pm: Replaced with https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-99b693525a17
(this market had too narrowly-defined... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647631644852 | 380 | MetaculusBot | 1647573700031 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d9fff6d5048b", "prob": 0.968751937503875, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.692270723273788, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.4739138844499194, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9kxf5INFGdxEIDlvqrTX", "createdTime": 1647573700163, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH | how-many-people-in-russia-will-be-a | 1177.723292381091 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.688379498651097 | True | play | b3a3291cb000 | public | 1647573821081 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10041/-of-anti-war-protest-arrests-in-russia/
Rounded to nearest 5k, i.e. "25,000", "30,000", etc.
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6801759214565573, "platformFee": 0.1700439803641393, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677116878698 | 660 | MetaculusBot | 1671398764493 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3c2c36103b73", "prob": 0.5781525584924341, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.46470269767941, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.795312964252243, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PybUk6le9WXN8sgf0SbH", "createdTime": 1647573821259, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 11 | 6 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1667370230271}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1667370221947}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-... | ["world-default", "russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671398764361 | False | {"b3a3291cb000": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02999812025876614 | BZ4OAyqkBkk8dO6R0VpT | {"NO": 484.7227689817955, "YES": 1412.7131391843486} | 0 | will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl-7eaa930b70e4 | 942 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | 1656561540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.322923571394728 | True | play | NO | public | 1647573956756 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10197/nato-article-5-invocation-by-june-30-2022/
See same market but with Dec 31 end date at https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-any-nato-country-invoke-articl
Close date updated to 2022-06-29 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1760283519148265, "platformFee": 0.04409428177746252, "liquidityFee": 0.2645656906647751} | 0 | 1656585604490 | 500.26456569066477 | MetaculusBot | 1656551274988 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372194}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.03 | 1656551273502 | 0.010499698604783553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18817802565443817 | nAanXQnWz4DReDZt8VWl | {"NO": 400.2334322498175, "YES": 2298.3415226469588} | 0 | will-russia-withdraw-from-the-new-s | 1740.0000000000005 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2376528158012494 | True | play | NO | public | 1647576219043 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10042/russia-withdrawal-from-new-start-treaty-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6783976321237521, "platformFee": 0.003984055816576261, "liquidityFee": 0.023904334899457563} | 0 | 1672697891464 | 560.0239043348995 | MetaculusBot | 1672558911537 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374374504}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.2 | 1672547300322 | 1672558908718 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT | how-many-true-buzzerbeaters-will-th | 1395.1083140172502 | How many true buzzer-beaters will there be in the 2022 March Madness tournament? | 1649130280294 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.679805208605368 | True | play | cb9dc48edfa4 | public | 1647577946120 | David Glidden | "True" meaning a game-winning buzzer-beater that would be listed on https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/friv/ncaa-buzzer-beaters.html with "0" in the "Time" column.
Last decade:
2021: 1
2019: 0
2018: 1
2017: 1
2016: 4
2015: 0
2014: 1
2013: 0
2012: 0 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.359012544692647, "platformFee": 1.8397531361731618, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649130280294 | 520 | dglid | 1647577946120 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "63aee74dbbf4", "prob": 0.017884930315816214, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21721619433507264, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.927991558751975, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FrVP0afFjLOUCNxg3dmT", "createdTime": 1647577946328, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | {"cb9dc48edfa4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6b2EW1Ibr20NjMTTM3kf | private-question-4 | 31 | Private Question #4 | 1648135235547 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.56573599125649 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647586274948 | Ozy Brennan | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648135235547 | 220 | ozymandias272 | 1647586274948 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e824fc19aac5", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6b2EW1Ibr20NjMTTM3kf", "createdTime": 1647586275225, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27620530829529444 | oipdGgLTPQPzzMP6RoD3 | {"NO": 252.43459835605972, "YES": 3069.3411952722263} | 0 | will-who-add-another-sarscov2-varia | 4334.6286304962905 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2525012817500456 | True | play | NO | public | 1647604635812 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/
Expected to resolve Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9619937832839802, "platformFee": 0.036650097603800585, "liquidityFee": 0.2199005856228035} | 0 | 1673232943499 | 820.2199005856228 | MetaculusBot | 1672759029727 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 20 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371699}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.75 | 1672543662312 | 1672759027877 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5734919421233561 | xSOLuzNgwyL9Z2qprYrs | {"NO": 11867.788976957618, "YES": 54.189044601159594} | 1 | will-holden-win-his-bet-with-zvi-ab | 17524.145718395703 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | 1664083815813 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.059860082668443 | True | play | YES | public | 1647604774033 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Expected to resolve around Mar 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.08086954131936, "platformFee": 3.3053367185093254, "liquidityFee": 19.832020311055953} | 0 | 1664083815813 | 519.832020311056 | MetaculusBot | 1710206848062 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["metaculus", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.57 | 1663973950611 | 1664020891061 | 0.9966156963535255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5012345446222972 | 6S8zzuJBeaaE7Te5IxtX | {"NO": 25.490417231609626, "YES": 10686.881541267721} | 0 | will-holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omi | 20773.96472136749 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | 1664083848013 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4397752718089696 | True | play | NO | public | 1647604847133 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/
Expected to resolve around Sep 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-08-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.344125115181406, "platformFee": 2.1530549745282523, "liquidityFee": 12.918329847169513} | 0 | 1664083848013 | 512.9183298471695 | MetaculusBot | 1664020944002 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371025}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.5 | 1663973979430 | 1664020941526 | 0.0023912820969264072 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6657947716739487 | HKHZaG7VmaqSR4SAEtXE | {"NO": 3365.8346875549655, "YES": 57.01879142508404} | 1 | will-omicron-be-the-most-dominant-s | 3578.4154022837793 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.074999375005152 | True | play | YES | public | 1647604971101 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8880/omicron-dominant-variant-dec-31-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 10, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-01-09 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.076246764521933, "platformFee": 0.8017492912155476, "liquidityFee": 4.810495747293285} | 0 | 1673089878026 | 644.3370399945238 | MetaculusBot | 1672462623564 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 22 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371637}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.25 | 1672462623389 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16827540374528865 | jT9lnBkuVHbymXFUPTfa | {"NO": 257.66527566194577, "YES": 16290.09500663969} | 0 | will-there-be-a-tau-variant-of-covi | 15869 | Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)? | 1656388740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4975607423111552 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605109609 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/
Expected to resolve around Jun 29, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-06-27 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.68706400666036, "platformFee": 1.4614470574747105, "liquidityFee": 8.768682344848262} | 0 | 1656542226530 | 508.76868234484834 | MetaculusBot | 1656363891765 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372196}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.17 | 1656363890292 | 0.0031899639545063642 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2516002306455589 | aG0O9zNiEnT1FXAEJP4M | {"NO": 64.48919298148465, "YES": 2526.559964861859} | 0 | will-russian-troops-enter-odessa-uk | 5401.989430751523 | Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.631752119890815 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605362426 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/
Expected to resolve Dec 31, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.94013626430164, "platformFee": 2.4458703860928153, "liquidityFee": 14.675222316556894} | 0 | 1672795004735 | 591.6658891720125 | MetaculusBot | 1672468698912 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065256923}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671065254875}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w... | ["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus"] | 0.86 | 1672462587454 | 1672468695337 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39343980984561744 | yrRtwxYwpWe6MU4V5l59 | {"NO": 170.0361630353455, "YES": 2741.7380304805083} | 0 | will-the-us-rejoin-the-iran-nuclear | 2862.8678530766124 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.23470357922052 | True | play | NO | public | 1647605433786 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/
Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.277551108416766, "platformFee": 0.7314870496973241, "liquidityFee": 4.388922298183944} | 0 | 1673089477076 | 544.3889222981841 | MetaculusBot | 1673086400337 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525589}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370711}] | ["iran", "metaculus"] | 0.45 | 1672431037278 | 1673086397917 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Wes5RG5qz6nitMfttrjw | {"NO": 500, "YES": 500} | 0.5 | will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef | 0 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 1647606035797 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7292862271758184 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647606022776 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647606035797 | 500 | MetaculusBot | 1647606022776 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372254}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24926325511243227 | Sa83VGSR7NPXxTzEbotz | {"NO": 1321.6451569870471, "YES": 831.0466092694386} | 0.3455633570239367 | will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef-293b30c295af | 10198.066213007254 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 2524539540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.787048058287855 | False | basic | public | 1647606087673 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
Expected to resolve around Dec 31, 2049. Closes 5 years prior.
Close date updated to 2049-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.002835376977761206} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.95626945558544, "platformFee": 35.66002307230989, "liquidityFee": 4.751965182629413} | 0 | 1229.5041870124119 | MetaculusBot | 1719377547367 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370428}, {"name": "Non-AI Doom composite", "slug": "nonai-doom-composite", "groupId": "de65d19a-b10a-43fd-a12c-7534a1fe8a83", "createdTime": 1691181356528}, {"name": "ww3", "slu... | ["metaculus", "nonai-doom-composite", "ww3-0de6f68758b8"] | 0.2 | 1719377543427 | 1718414564407 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1695738361957768 | aZ8urzZXzVGggoczjgEz | {"NO": 1013.7950979783934, "YES": 1863.1615697632756} | 0.10000000000000318 | will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p | 11900.616655550231 | Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? | 1893473940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.717504331832677 | False | basic | public | 1647606374086 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
Closes Oct 12, 2025. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.
Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.993837738158737, "platformFee": 1.6171381053589777, "liquidityFee": 1.4268644975354106} | 0 | 1141.4268644975355 | MetaculusBot | 1716762160970 | 0.2 | 47 | 0 | 31 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["space", "metaculus", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.12844859838941824 | 0.21 | 1716762160970 | 1687053403555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6500000062233163 | uFIH8WIGYuWfKzqIAt4F | {"NO": 1307.3442101504543, "YES": 2469.113415723151} | 0.49579456154255347 | will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-b | 16825.528789778313 | Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? | 1893473940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.734713904297107 | False | basic | public | 1647606440787 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/
Closes Aug 1, 2024. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.
Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.0013991595533486834, "month": 0.04833556745730894} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.20433283111649, "platformFee": 23.648130934379193, "liquidityFee": 1.4036558236690062} | 0 | 2036.403655823669 | MetaculusBot | 1719913261023 | 0 | 2 | 124 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462891}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370479}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-852... | ["space", "metaculus", "mars"] | 0.8 | 1719913257751 | 1702978578193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DcIz96jynPMU8UxBrUyC | what-database-will-manifold-be-prim | 23431.09269183185 | What database will this website be using on June 1st? | 1654066740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.618888913806273 | True | basic | 869487764e1b | public | 1647620334905 | Austin | We want to switch to a new database, because we've been experiencing some pain points with Firestore:
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 78.1517108818526, "platformFee": 19.53792772046315, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654092908858 | 2459.999999999999 | Austin | 1654061957327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 58 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7606841100c0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.739417412827881e-05, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5738843471086598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DcIz96jynPMU8UxBrUyC", "createdTime": 1647620335095, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 1 | [{"name": "Backend v2", "slug": "backend-v2", "groupId": "J1hEfCZs7RurfyYkbA9R", "createdTime": 1658529457066}] | ["backend-v2"] | 1654061955757 | 1652932438317 | {"869487764e1b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | fgJj6FbY9PbGU8BAA3Pr | {"NO": 51, "YES": 51} | 0.5 | will-odessa-fall-before-2023 | 0 | Will Odessa fall before 2023? | 1647626069668 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.341816816362396 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647626044688 | Account deletion requested | See also https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-before-2023
Intended resolution will match what is present there
> This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647626069668 | 51 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647626044688 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23897106217634975 | R245cwbDPaNSkCyJUYnV | {"NO": 68.8092300906354, "YES": 119.49318923013256} | 0.1531312406894602 | will-odessa-fall-before-2023-322eeb61935c | 1254.165642313709 | Will Odessa fall before 2023? | 1663277464387 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.554397271380664 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647626194796 | Account deletion requested | See also https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-kyiv-fall-before-2023
Intended resolution will match what is present there
> This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663277464387 | 74.8856619257381 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277032336 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662754377468}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662754373948}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w... | ["wars", "russia", "ukraine", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 1663277032172 | 1662987517435 | 0.03182365553797939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6311235867441054 | 7rRviJIwYkpgsoEJKf1T | {"NO": 209.06646104103268, "YES": 24.113513610066263} | 1 | will-i-still-be-in-turkey-on-202207 | 250.77842543167853 | Will I still be in Turkey on 2022-07-18? | 1658167200000 | xUYqtAWzoBN24Rs5I3QxnAoDdiv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.061039626658512 | True | play | YES | public | 1647628625677 | Phi | "YES" iff, at any moment of 2022-07-18 UTC, I am in Turkey.
Mar 18, 9:37pm: I am in Kaş, Turkey, and I like it here so far but in principle I don't like Turkey. I ran away from Russia to avoided getting caught in closed borders and martial law. I'm looking for remote work or work with relocation. An acquaintance said ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.821766002263752, "platformFee": 0.29075055732250943, "liquidityFee": 1.7445033439350563} | 0 | 1658318249709 | 51.74450334393506 | phi | 1658161682685 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}] | ["turkey"] | 0.63 | 1658161678762 | 1647728720040 | 0.9368446447281361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2049876215580969 | 9fVNWNrOs5R2Lo1yx9wO | {"NO": 89.67383274428744, "YES": 985.3435390079233} | 0 | will-the-nytimes-wordle-for-march-2-e311366c1028 | 6852 | Will the NYTimes Wordle for March 23 start with a vowel? | 1648075795270 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7760832164707168 | True | play | NO | public | 1647628862224 | Alex Power | I would like a hint whether the wordle for Wednesday, March 23, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. Vowels are A E I O U and sometimes J W Y; if the word starts with J W or Y, then I will flip a coin to resolve the market.
There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.406813760607545, "platformFee": 4.567802293434589, "liquidityFee": 27.406813760607545} | 0 | 1648075795270 | 127.40681376060756 | AlexPower | 1647628862224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 0.2 | 1647869171077 | 0.02292759763309047 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6 | what-will-be-the-approval-rating-of-99b693525a17 | 714.0403930906879 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | 1672794870567 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.690746946421734 | True | play | abb644584351 | public | 1647631586124 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10054/putins-approval-rating-in-russia-in-2022/
Rounded to nearest 5, i.e. acceptable answers "55", "60", "65", etc. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9216157236275149, "platformFee": 0.23040393090687872, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672794870567 | 780.0000000000002 | MetaculusBot | 1664736965042 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a21bb5930186", "prob": 0.617931597345699, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.08514365301595, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.92982210098292, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i8QUmKSYLg0RwHJtdEH6", "createdTime": 1647631586326, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 8 | 1664736964882 | 1663395128833 | {"abb644584351": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB | we-are-unhappy-with-firebase-what-d | 380 | We are unhappy with Firebase. Assuming we switch, what database will we be using on June 1st? | 1647655349229 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.738581663407304 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647648897370 | James | Hello all,
We want to switch to a new database, because we've had problems using Firebase.
- Our database bill has been getting quite expensive for a small startup ($1400 per month).
- We have to duplicate data across documents to achieve performance goals. E.g. denormalizing user avatar URLs.
- Queries are not very ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647655349229 | 320 | JamesGrugett | 1654663141045 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1ae7e6550665", "prob": 0.6232686980609419, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.147996735299394, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.147233582225404, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Jj80CWJTmrjunGxY5DyB", "createdTime": 1647648897679, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1654663139580 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14562317209522255 | TMbnjV8fHtNQx5E3bMDU | {"NO": 142.41040969344624, "YES": 516.2290117963887} | 0 | will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20 | 4270.72560346122 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022? | 1672536911563 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.859957532333138 | True | play | NO | public | 1647655966445 | BCG | This resolves to "Yes" if Hunter Biden is indicted or arrested for any crime by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.346611986828396, "platformFee": 4.620945321281962, "liquidityFee": 27.725671927691764} | 0 | 1672536911563 | 181.6594938600565 | BruceGrugett | 1671898316409 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 48 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488066}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856951}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.4 | 1671898316219 | 1658790952077 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5038518616552939 | Qqso2ZFl5Y15ExepMvj6 | {"NO": 992.1138036347647, "YES": 1007.5184169853549} | 0.5000000000000009 | legacy-market-see-description-for-r | 149.59741003020255 | Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria | 1735649940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.565347613799853 | False | basic | public | 1647660071893 | Undox | I am trying to create a future grandfathered market.
If MM changes their AMM again them this M will be using “the old system” and then I might spring it into life to ask a fresh question.
Until then consider this a rugpull and don't bet.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 8.881784197001252e-16, "week": 8.881784197001252e-16, "month": 8.881784197001252e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5583658350803709, "platformFee": 0.5470061021281354, "liquidityFee": 1.2136316795426827} | 0 | 1000 | Undox | 1713835070639 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 11 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139733015}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1713835067166 | 1707189540923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10313804303625186 | 3qs3wRvfbHeBN4YG0cOz | {"NO": 113.67573419893037, "YES": 51.07289244918719} | 0.1 | how-many-manifold-prediction-market | 113.82553950763872 | How many Manifold prediction markets submitted to Hacker News will have at least 20 karma by May 1st? | 1651381140000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.328302944481708 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647669681007 | James | On close, this market will resolve to a probability in the range 0-100% which is equal to 10 times the number of qualifying Hacker News submissions.
To qualify, the link submitted to HN must be to an individual Manifold market and have at least 20 karma.
You can check the current submissions and their karma with this... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.201240509130761, "platformFee": 0.36687341818846014, "liquidityFee": 2.201240509130761} | 0 | 1658093473355 | 102.04708604200103 | JamesGrugett | 1647669681007 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1647684613904 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000325767082476 | cu8Bh7xwe5qSFoA2Ua6z | {"NO": 104.97621878715813, "YES": 95.80471125692468} | 0 | ence-win-furia-today | 5 | Ence win Furia today? | 1647689400000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7679380783070155 | True | play | NO | public | 1647671968456 | Gaserd | "Yes" Ence win
Match - https://www.hltv.org/matches/2354550/furia-vs-ence-esl-pro-league-season-15 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1426872770511296, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854936, "liquidityFee": 0.1426872770511296} | 0 | 1647713835635 | 100.14268727705112 | Gaserd | 1647671968456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1647672462054 | 0.5228720968597527 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4890338993446919 | M45WDSDl5qPs4RhuQFjA | {"NO": 1.8337230386021877, "YES": 59.986486486486484} | 0.028425193993005495 | will-viv-3109-be-on-time-on-march-1 | 50 | Will VIV 3109 be on time on March 19 | 1647675900000 | ePoMr7epe7d52WIfkTN0SJhW0Zh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.975802535927137 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647672404497 | Nalin Bhardwaj | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1701103857039 | 10.08108108108108 | NalinBhardwaj | 1701102776225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0hr88AZobWuk2xGmm3RVFP7ym2ipSI8EZDRn3=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1701102775483 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7379623048049345 | DERFvZmrP7zMIDoscNrr | {"NO": 1197.497237543409, "YES": 141.3511168751774} | 1 | will-russia-use-a-hypersonic-missil | 4526 | Will Russia use a hypersonic missile in Ukraine in 2022? | 1647914462581 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.150395465988925 | True | play | YES | public | 1647684287393 | Bunyip | This resolves "YES" on mainstream media consensus.
Mar 19, 9:04pm:
There is mainstream media reporting of Russia's claims to have used hypersonics in the last week. There is Ukrainian confirmation of missile hits from unspecified Russian technology.
There is yet to be verification of Russia's claims, as opposed to cu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.084432104284982, "platformFee": 5.014072017380832, "liquidityFee": 30.084432104284982} | 0 | 1647914462581 | 230.08443210428507 | Bunyip | 1647684287393 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.75 | 1647914110126 | 0.9429470441039003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4536664212874799 | 74yjFkPKdHK8j13AMNVE | {"NO": 29.228206259369188, "YES": 492.1902539279284} | 0 | will-be-there-a-nuclear-war-in-2022 | 1380 | Will be there a nuclear war in 2022? | 1648245244610 | fwWXhGyVEybJCyLRKdMN7IxcAM43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6150693863000467 | True | play | NO | public | 1647685212118 | egirl |
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6116174283378495, "platformFee": 0.601936238056308, "liquidityFee": 3.6116174283378495} | 0 | 1648245244610 | 103.61161742833784 | egirl | 1647685212118 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxVsHsKSWiMT-YBDHXxCy4yhDG41mct6Nc07U7g=s96-c | 24 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471670}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.49 | 1647748786079 | 0.04699411525751808 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5009480610063666 | bTTeTHKqZI9SdK5l1LRn | {"NO": 523.8101161691051, "YES": 534.5809930459577} | 1 | will-i-find-a-cute-boyfriend-sooon | 514 | Will I find a cute boyfriend sooon? | 1648245172512 | fwWXhGyVEybJCyLRKdMN7IxcAM43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6923871295909059 | True | play | YES | public | 1647685394176 | egirl | Mar 19, 3:53pm: I'm a 22 year old blonde women if it matters. I'm not ugly but have masculine interests.
Mar 19, 8:38pm: Average isn't cute to me depending on the location I guess. Those will be different. An average scandanavian male might be cute but american? uhh | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.589134563097618, "platformFee": 2.431522427182937, "liquidityFee": 14.589134563097618} | 0 | 1648245172512 | 514.5891345630978 | egirl | 1647685394176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxVsHsKSWiMT-YBDHXxCy4yhDG41mct6Nc07U7g=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648147751382 | 0.4958596556433948 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5022794203964087 | wHnAEpgWnHgpyR6OcDrY | {"NO": 66.47934311794188, "YES": 39.67566041724792} | 0 | will-the-next-backyard-birds-of-aus | 30 | Will the next Backyard Birds of Australia video show a laughing kookaburra in frame? | 1648184340000 | OOlXfxzezDgMmfcp28nAjJGT3Yn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.356326223693461 | True | play | NO | public | 1647693535640 | ewired | Backyard Birds of Australia has a new video every Friday evening AEST according to the about page. This market will be resolved to YES if the next Backyard Birds of Australia video after market close shows at least one laughing kookaburra in frame. The market will be resolved to NO if no laughing kookaburras are shown ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6487401992152553, "platformFee": 0.10812336653587587, "liquidityFee": 0.6487401992152553} | 0 | 1648218862682 | 50.648740199215254 | ewired | 1647693535640 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhSqMxXsUz71okhLk5M--aSRzr9vrVTK9f-mgfW=s96-c | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112327}] | ["australia"] | 0.5 | 0.6283794979797596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7 | letter-frequency-in-the-march-25th | 24085.97213847121 | Letter frequency in the March 25th NYTimes Wordle. | 1648250141910 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.622178368795304 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647706259468 | Alex Power | I would like a hint regarding letter frequency for the wordle for Friday, March 26, 2022 will start with a consonant or a vowel. There are spoiler lists for Wordle that I don't want to look at; also the NYTimes staff can (and has) changed the word list.
There will be five different answers related to letter frequency.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.231477904976014, "platformFee": 4.5578694762440035, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648250141910 | 600 | AlexPower | 1647706259468 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1991566853b1", "prob": 0.00020069363160033646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00030330019922990807, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.5109564084989688, "textFts": "", "contractId": "V3vRuQMKn9dcmJxjIlx7", "createdTime": 1647706259810, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w... | [{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1661917350387}] | ["improperly-resolved"] | 1648250017328 | {"068a38599c8b": 90, "5db6f2ab0f34": 10} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15036321067571026 | Dinfh0NFdfzvTyuvveA0 | {"NO": 97.44920763276266, "YES": 164.0919085338012} | 0 | will-most-boston-public-school-kids | 247 | Will most Boston public school kids be wearing facemasks in school in 2025? | 1648364340000 | FeFnCckzhESN0YZmdzDlCAK7Jz52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.256382534318771 | True | play | NO | public | 1647718392877 | Daniel Kokotajlo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.69697613194801, "platformFee": 0.44949602199133504, "liquidityFee": 2.69697613194801} | 0 | 1686422021489 | 102.696976131948 | DanielKokotajlo | 1660256835481 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVjTFK7BPLbT8JWnBLD31jNJp6zVL33JphVQrdOA=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477929}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}] | ["politics-default", "medicine"] | 0.15 | 1660256833750 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv | who-is-emperor-belos-from-the-owl-h | 237 | Who is Emperor Belos from the Owl House? | 1650748737445 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.948363053102803 | True | play | 3cb34018c0bc | public | 1647718973845 | Tetra | This will resolve at the answer that gives the identity or origin of Emperor Belos from the Owl House.
Close date updated to 2022-05-28 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.199495951554697, "platformFee": 0.5498739878886743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650748737445 | 500.00000000000017 | Tetraspace | 1647718973845 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d52347441ae7", "prob": 0.006306139102282764, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03684006961285582, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.805097289415596, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vbCqsSLJI6BbxhL4lwBv", "createdTime": 1647718973986, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548394}] | ["culture-default"] | 1647793706164 | {"3cb34018c0bc": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8046917517834775 | N94hK5ajKqcJLksKEgQ8 | {"NO": 464.3584364834204, "YES": 56.1099483596234} | 0 | will-alex-power-resolve-all-of-his | 650 | Will Alex Power resolve all of his first three Wordle markets honorably? | 1647816600000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.4815104900488345 | True | play | NO | public | 1647722318908 | Gurkenglas | If Alex Power goes into a NO position here and closes any of his first three Wordle markets within 8 hours of that, I may resolve this whichever way loses him money.
Mar 19, 9:42pm: https://manifold.markets/AlexPower
Mar 26, 12:17am: 5 minutes ago, on the third market: "I did so bad with the hint, I think I may just ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.348991120797831, "platformFee": 0.3914985201329718, "liquidityFee": 2.348991120797831} | 0 | 1648251057156 | 82.34899112079782 | Gurkenglas | 1647722318908 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272484817}] | ["trust"] | 0.8 | 1647731331462 | 0.9715079356749373 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.50837512111039 | 8uY2wgxpd5Z4I4ZV1Mib | {"NO": 223.70249746658934, "YES": 12.753417877067633} | 1 | will-i-andor-my-spouse-attend-the-a | 246.90400543600234 | Will I and/or my spouse attend the ACX meetup organizers retreat? | 1658093760000 | F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.159903776386905 | True | play | YES | public | 1647725801194 | tigrennatenn | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7091391247227115, "platformFee": 0.18372217592969076, "liquidityFee": 1.1023330555781445} | 0 | 1685833301441 | 51.10233305557815 | tigrennatenn | 1658072535719 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529464830}] | ["acx"] | 0.5 | 1658072534373 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6403725029174072 | yIapkflrJhJgNvqxL4h5 | {"NO": 959.8322775777328, "YES": 976.6334402176052} | 0.6363665648625955 | will-the-sixth-novel-in-the-a-song | 5539.34354966072 | Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? | 2515705200000 | RtEWAzXFu6cFqseKoG587E7bXaU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641094935744023 | False | basic | public | 1647736561744 | hyperion | This market resolves to "YES" if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series of fantasy novels is released before the death of the author, George R. R. Martin.
Mar 20, 12:36am: Trading ends on 20th September 2049 - GRRMs 100th birthday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006008112669569021} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.95744922133603, "platformFee": 1.8651727665735311, "liquidityFee": 9.8026440931067} | 0 | 1000 | hyperion | 1719208691403 | 0 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1694351146302}] | ["a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.1076849385523434 | 0.5 | 1719208688373 | 1712759060891 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | 3253IXihA3n2VTF9IpRX | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.8 | undox-will-believe-that-gurkenglas | 0 | Undox will believe that Gurkenglas was right on their disagreement. | 1647742200000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.866326804175673 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647741140288 | Gurkenglas | Mar 20, 2:52am: Conditional on Gurkenglas revealing his evidence to Undox.
Mar 20, 2:55am: Do you hear the sounds of chicken in the distance?
Close date updated to 2022-03-20 3:10 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653147606355 | 50 | Gurkenglas | 1647741140288 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5027033086533719 | XpZ7bx0Y4MrRmIMjLGEU | {"NO": 248.3336617472267, "YES": 49.64688440880322} | 1 | ence-win-sprout | 410 | Ence win Sprout? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8918168599776326 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754834742 | Gaserd | Yes - ENCE win
No - ENCE lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/b5cya0oQ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3029232504763835, "platformFee": 0.8838205417460638, "liquidityFee": 5.3029232504763835} | 0 | 1647839457569 | 105.30292325047638 | Gaserd | 1647754834742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8348848848565068 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5013024245736781 | zqvKqktZoDOZDRj6DbSO | {"NO": 139.86486486486484, "YES": 73.95788750627462} | 1 | faze-win-furia | 40 | Faze win Furia? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.791097571529856 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754893392 | Gaserd | YES - Faze win
NO - Faze lose
Statistcs - https://www.flashscore.com/match/p2gXatWJ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8108108108108104, "platformFee": 0.1351351351351351, "liquidityFee": 0.8108108108108104} | 0 | 1647839483296 | 100.8108108108108 | Gaserd | 1647754893392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6552936525969477 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4995778047130686 | zIpqIwbRcsXmSnLOqObr | {"NO": 85.06355142298693, "YES": 119.91803278688525} | 1 | vitality-win-outsiders-virtus-pro | 20 | Vitality win Outsiders (Virtus Pro)? | 1647801000000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7677847003055867 | True | play | YES | public | 1647754970015 | Gaserd | YES - Vitality win
NO - Vitality lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/rcFlycgJ/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246} | 0 | 1647839507214 | 100.49180327868852 | Gaserd | 1647754970015 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.41457150270560045 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500121272864049 | JF9Um0AzJjKADD6OHydn | {"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770496} | 0.5447322636767833 | team-liquid-win-og | 10 | Team Liquid win OG? | 1647795600000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.765773451990329 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647755035075 | Gaserd | YES - Team Liquid win
NO - Team Liquid lose
statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/MsVwzrnk/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1647802390262 | 100.27149321266968 | Gaserd | 1647755035075 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5447322636767833 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uykObXAa2AG7etGUfSj7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | t1-win-drx | 0 | T1 win DRX? | 1647766800000 | BP3E8E7rkaSII7xurE0lbVVRuD72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | YES | public | 1647755098140 | Gaserd | YES - T1 win
NO - T1 lose
Statistics - https://www.flashscore.com/match/lnIDJlPk/#/match-summary | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647776200902 | 100 | Gaserd | 1647755098140 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjPHsYhNuVlfQt2joEahKLLgL58pB8Xf3qLUV8tFA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5237172799027596 | mknMhgLRldNlnIpyA2Rg | {"NO": 60.38901311355628, "YES": 16.142562915936676} | 1 | manifold-will-allow-me-to-sort-my-t-a2d9bf83bb53 | 476.45169956084067 | Manifold will allow me to sort my trades by profit by Sun. Apr 3rd | 1648969260000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.008370193119635 | True | play | YES | public | 1647760307576 | Em ✨ | The ordering is all messed up. Resolves if i can go down the list and it's a steady decrease in either profit amnt or percentage of invesment. (If my much older bets are a little oddly placed because of the lack of loans that's fine.)
Apr 1, 9:29pm: yeaaah I still cannot tell how it's coming to the order it does. It w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.856090660516376, "platformFee": 0.47601511008606284, "liquidityFee": 2.856090660516376} | 0 | 1648987686588 | 27.781169299440947 | hamnox | 1647760307576 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648966711639 | 0.8044414105960657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21871498457235708 | pCh8moTbctVzR9UkoUPD | {"NO": 95.0972337253166, "YES": 982.5317236302113} | 0 | will-russia-use-wmds-in-2022 | 2110.6512313397675 | Will Russia use WMDs in 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4096048163051584 | True | play | NO | public | 1647765440479 | Keepcalmandchill | There have been warnings of a false flag chemical attack by Russia in Ukraine by Western countries. This market resolves Yes if Russia uses nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.925930478577813, "platformFee": 1.6246206332321107, "liquidityFee": 9.747723799392663} | 0 | 1672538708901 | 189.53709578200932 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672481064701 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421215}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224580}] | ["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672481064597 | 1654906637652 | False | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22431356028059143 | GWhf9NOrrkllog52ifTn | {"NO": 110.74132068505816, "YES": 1714.1324696053584} | 0 | will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-test | 6896.899933898455 | Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6109186769200248 | True | play | NO | public | 1647765552380 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves yes if Russia conducts a live-fire nuclear explosion for non-combat purposes during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.278500798713052, "platformFee": 1.5464167997855087, "liquidityFee": 9.278500798713052} | 0 | 1672538724730 | 228.45554278127975 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672423032341 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 59 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125145}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1672423031200 | 1666082537074 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.741872911604569 | MbAxc8zAp47prq8Ja1lt | {"NO": 1264.2219523974088, "YES": 169.01998893386525} | 1 | will-covid-spread-become-uncontroll | 6730.68475308382 | Will Covid spread become uncontrolled in China during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9031572770675895 | True | play | YES | public | 1647765686141 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves Yes if during 2022, Covid spreads in China to an extent where lockdowns and other emergency measures are no longer able to effectively control the spread for any long period of time.
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.21216561060406, "platformFee": 4.6617223357547255, "liquidityFee": 27.97033401452835} | 0 | 1672538755169 | 380.49645783857613 | Keepcalmandchill | 1710206837490 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 51 | [{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["china", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.5 | 1672480196833 | 1671986295788 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2211482588182907 | kDm7yM23JJFFe7e0xOuv | {"NO": 113.31802463541841, "YES": 1153.6756367936741} | 0 | will-the-iran-nuclear-deal-be-reviv | 1744.884069596808 | Will the Iran nuclear deal be revived? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.967190411592931 | True | play | NO | public | 1647766074074 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves to a Yes if the Iran nuclear deal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) is brought back into effect. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.253685912177372, "platformFee": 0.45421330013317407, "liquidityFee": 2.7252798007990444} | 0 | 1672540524614 | 222.72527980079903 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672479948923 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502474}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZ... | ["politics-default", "nuclear-risk", "iran"] | 0.5 | 1672479948740 | 1661359149175 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5012231610012969 | RpCtOvcy4MOZzt9akFCu | {"NO": 6.54163845181585, "YES": 106.4309585020094} | 0 | more-than-5-000-000-refugees-moved | 158.67629594463733 | More than 5 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01 | 1654074922802 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.895265782441866 | True | play | NO | public | 1647766781115 | Account deletion requested | More than 2 000 000 refugees moved into Poland by 2022-06-01, according to the official statistics.
To the first approximation, it will be count of people who moved through the Ukrainian border since war started.
People who left Poland are included.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-at-least-5-million-refug... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2547460364321594, "platformFee": 0.3757910060720267, "liquidityFee": 2.2547460364321594} | 0 | 1654074922802 | 24.254746036432163 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1654074915804 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653427482631 | 1654074914132 | 0.05817212853628317 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5895698754750797 | 5v5dPuss9ZRLOOa7uVe0 | {"NO": 874.0863949287534, "YES": 39.76924227016547} | 1 | will-sorting-my-manifold-trades-by | 1581.4132229058048 | Will sorting my Manifold trades by profit work correctly by the end of April 10? | 1649011808769 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2461230606058864 | True | play | YES | public | 1647770410188 | Anna | Currently when I sort markets I've traded in in "Your trades" by profit, the resulting sorting is not correct (e.g. it is not the case that all markets with positive profit are listed before all markets with negative profit). Will it be correct by the end of April 10 (Pacific time)?
For this to resolve YES, the sortin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.79512176417388, "platformFee": 2.7991869606956477, "liquidityFee": 16.79512176417388} | 0 | 1649011808769 | 113.5442453579388 | tcheasdfjkl | 1647770410188 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.55 | 1649011802440 | 0.9690157429069611 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.491521145826884 | Jq5sXFGq5GDk83GT9D3Y | {"NO": 36.94911338769762, "YES": 81.09603955676275} | 0.30576129478651526 | does-training-order-matter-to-trans | 98.74818436639023 | Does training order matter to Transformer neural nets? | 1650491940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.24532715508453 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647775743362 | Gurkenglas | On the EleutherAI Discord, Stella Biderman several weeks ago presented the surprise: Shuffle a training dataset, train a GPT on it, and its final loss on the ith datum is uncorrelated with i to, if i remember correctly, 10 (!) significant digits. Perhaps there's no way at all to deduce the training order from the train... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.113843745191749, "platformFee": 0.35230729086529144, "liquidityFee": 2.113843745191749} | 0 | 1653696669970 | 52.05634424689017 | Gurkenglas | 1653696659379 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653696656759 | 0.30576129478651526 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR | what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch | 148 | What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do? | 1649270466773 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.948199085047036 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647785398883 | Tetra | I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve at the intervention th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649270466773 | 660 | Tetraspace | 1668218082583 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0d0a49fe3d95", "prob": 0.0062988158226253465, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04234786732829133, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.680799549711241, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gaCj1fGpbmdQ8eA3BjOR", "createdTime": 1647785399054, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 1668218087528 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2572341537880051 | LrJxYeQYEaFXy0o5ArPV | {"NO": 82.30287251440194, "YES": 13.790180885847219} | 0.6739390010777043 | did-you-know-that-you-can-lose-m-if | 39 | Did you know that you can lose M$ if a market resolves N/A? | 1648418340000 | U8DTevvfFecjxyyEN9QTeR0nCIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.93286495749111 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647791397743 | Tobias Dänzer | This is meant to be a survey, so this market will resolve as PROB.
This question was prompted by me thinking I could get M$ by buying and selling in this survey market slated to resolve N/A (https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when ), only to learn that my investment of 300 M$ had so... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.029238776555211, "platformFee": 0.1715397960925352, "liquidityFee": 1.029238776555211} | 0 | 1648427437567 | 51.02923877655521 | TobiasDanzer | 1647791397743 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzXaoN0AV39U9HOqnpyJjNzldH3F9_wqGbCPNJ8=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1647957593706 | 0.6739390010777043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24953650226757873 | xJSlh1j4iTCI09RqHbgF | {"NO": 23.731344638538786, "YES": 493.8135887846041} | 0 | will-a-general-covid19-vaccine-mand-42ef052dde87 | 446.1352828656436 | Will a general Covid-19 vaccine mandate in Austria be generally enforced in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 6awvfZlo4qRHe9uh3mPR6EASFSi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.863257083434455 | True | play | NO | public | 1647791929340 | Eugen Grue | Austria did set-up a mandate, but has now "paused" it. Plan was to initially not enforce it at all, then not for real (only if violation was found during a random drivers license check et al.).
Resolves yes only if the mandate will be proactively enforced, i.e. some gov agency starts checking only for vaccination mand... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3067700985135544, "platformFee": 0.051128349752259064, "liquidityFee": 0.3067700985135544} | 0 | 1672567307944 | 50.30677009851355 | EugenGrue | 1667246402400 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxgIvuNqBGUgp4YpKXpF5X2l8owWfp9NRNs4-Gw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512458}, {"name": "Austria", "slug": "austria", "userId": "6awv... | ["politics-default", "medicine", "austria"] | 0.25 | 1667246402201 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9794918697605677 | RjGzkLqXoepafhxP20Xh | {"NO": 40.21534560094513, "YES": 9.60171337137814} | 1 | will-the-workers-party-of-korea-rem | 167 | Will the Worker's Party of Korea remain in power in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as of April 15, 2022? | 1648439940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1647798696785 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if the Worker's Party of Korea remains in power in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as of April 15, 2022. If it falls from power during or prior to this date, this market resolves no. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14233490599842907, "platformFee": 0.023722484333071513, "liquidityFee": 0.14233490599842907} | 0 | 1649641977541 | 10.142334905998428 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647798696785 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1647800479461 | 0.9950258767902053 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.511124823826145 | vjsZqvpiLcTB9D6qEiOy | {"NO": 483.4413573303001, "YES": 25.535483408621417} | 1 | will-the-2022-sweet-sixteen-games-b | 450 | Will the 2022 Sweet Sixteen games be more exciting than usual? | 1648267140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6253610085437376 | True | play | YES | public | 1647803182296 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if the simple average of all 2022 March Madness Sweet Sixteen men’s college basketball games’ excitement indicies is greater than 3.7. These values can be found in the lower-right hand corner of each game box at the top of FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness 2022 predictions page here: https://proj... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9099918666580047, "platformFee": 0.6516653111096675, "liquidityFee": 3.9099918666580047} | 0 | 1648299519556 | 103.909991866658 | dglid | 1647803182296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.9519086922115654 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD | which-sweet-sixteen-march-madness-g | 658 | Which Sweet Sixteen March Madness game will be the most exciting according to FiveThirtyEight? | 1648267140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.782323917516577 | True | play | 1b673239db90 | public | 1647804279352 | David Glidden | Help me figure out which game(s) I should plan to watch! This market will resolve to the 2022 men’s college basketball March Madness game in the Sweet Sixteen round that ends with the highest excitement index according to FiveThirtyEight.
These values can be found in the lower-right hand corner of each game box at the... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.676878420377165, "platformFee": 2.669219605094291, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648299592331 | 580 | dglid | 1647804279352 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bf4b062de9f2", "prob": 0.1329717868298256, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.397377247990085, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.672624688719637, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZTvRWdqvcZM0OPbMlBGD", "createdTime": 1647804279592, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1648180557034 | {"1b673239db90": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8851426066172864 | hyifikdIJZwGpa3ke3nr | {"NO": 35.72246688334765, "YES": 29.54981746100107} | 0 | will-russian-and-allied-forces-cont | 44 | Will Russian and allied forces control Mariupol as of April 15, 2022? | 1648439940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.033106625165018 | True | play | NO | public | 1647812708520 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if Russian and allied (DNR, LNR, White Russian, etc.) forces control Mariupol as of April 15, 2022. If it is still contested or Ukrainian forces control it, it resolves to "no". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6338190217621631, "platformFee": 0.10563650362702719, "liquidityFee": 0.6338190217621631} | 0 | 1650001621694 | 29.633819021762157 | EnopoletusHarding | 1647812708520 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.9030655107501453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21937405783350852 | VvMS9lXPIciry6YZD2Nd | {"NO": 24.664218621812015, "YES": 0.16037388870944197} | 1 | has-russia-used-a-hypersonic-missil | 169 | Has Russia used a hypersonic missile in Ukraine before March 20 2022? | 1648406858200 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.772994139552827 | True | play | YES | public | 1647813151741 | Account deletion requested | note: there are already claims that hypersonic missile was used but it appears to be dubious
I plan to keep it open until situation becomes clear (note: with new payout model it should be fair)
Mar 20, 10:52pm: as delimiting moment in time opening of this market will be taken | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8384538334812516, "platformFee": 0.1397423055802086, "liquidityFee": 0.8384538334812516} | 0 | 1648406858200 | 10.83845383348125 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1647813151741 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.1 | 1647915362000 | 0.9773853518111469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7963770765645549 | YQcTvctwUImvtIyoP7HH | {"NO": 1222.50554510053, "YES": 123.60652467888404} | 1 | will-anthony-albanese-be-the-prime | 2049.76809825041 | Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia in 2023? | 1672491600000 | rzbOeFS2DrcyzjXHuZwnqoLzYGS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0099169986126815 | True | play | YES | public | 1647817346678 | Danny Wardle | This market resolves to 'YES' if and only if Anthony Albanese is the Prime Minister of Australia on January 1 2023 at 12:00am. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.260369442760528, "platformFee": 2.68617342052093, "liquidityFee": 16.11704052312558} | 0 | 1672500734606 | 196.11704052312564 | DannyWardle | 1671536290322 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwAwSntbCb6hKP_CjVJzSVo9ZC0dgpv7SZrV1Oi=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492389}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112326}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": ... | ["politics-default", "australia"] | 0.75 | 1671536290141 | 1647830146889 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21440419686258017 | ZF1655eH84cBxsJXn9T8 | {"NO": 69.08544736650538, "YES": 7143.368418163613} | 0 | will-canada-sign-a-formal-agreement | 7152.715127567912 | Will Canada sign a formal agreement with a Nuclear Waste Management Site by January 1 2024? | 1704135540000 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5303264900446276 | True | play | NO | public | 1647820410341 | Jasper Woodard | This market will resolve Yes if Canada's NWMO signs a site agreement as outline in Step 6 of their selection process.
Nuclear energy has positive momentum in most media that I read in 2022, and the case for nuclear would be even stronger with an answer for nuclear waste storage. Nuclear experts seem to agree by consen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6715260625496843, "platformFee": 0.11192101042494738, "liquidityFee": 0.6715260625496843} | 0 | 1704156404156 | 220.67152606254967 | JasperWoodard | 1704156404359 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529902}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "w... | ["science-default", "nuclear-risk", "canada", "nuclear-power", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.3 | 1704119139188 | 1704085367756 | 0 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10152950699729457 | PaNsNDcL3XgPNR6Gj511 | {"NO": 92.87547448484887, "YES": 78.06826678743225} | 1 | will-the-christmas-day-2022-wordle | 221.02071613234588 | Will the Christmas Day 2022 Wordle start with a vowel? | 1671541140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.11552473048232 | True | play | YES | public | 1647827235150 | Undox | Let there be no mistake: The future wordle list is baked into the code of the Wordle page. Hence all those rigged Wordle markets you've lost money in.
Currently the Christmas Day Wordle is, well I won't spoil it, but let's say it is known and it doesn't start with a vowel. But things change, woke gets more woke and mo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7237842525971596, "platformFee": 0.12063070876619328, "liquidityFee": 0.7237842525971596} | 0 | 1673822299390 | 90.72378425259717 | Undox | 1673822523280 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 8 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670560440}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.1 | 1671447002956 | 1673822519044 | 0.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21252530860031182 | pA7PoPnHnQrpsZTNidjf | {"NO": 91.99617996678448, "YES": 6.414921470617465} | 1 | will-ukraine-plant-more-than-25-of | 49.641614519128204 | Will Ukraine plant more than 25% of its Spring Barley crop in 2022? | 1656597540000 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.028581086496538 | True | play | YES | public | 1647839516858 | Bunyip | This market resolves "YES" with USDA, Rosstat or another reputable source.
Mar 21, 4:11pm: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0934791626766163, "platformFee": 0.18224652711276937, "liquidityFee": 1.0934791626766163} | 0 | 1703047194558 | 50.97993751658762 | Bunyip | 1703047191243 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505137}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072278}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukr... | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.2 | 1655152382447 | 1703047189466 | False | 0.79 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20975128328735101 | vMpHKwjGNnXfpnm289x1 | {"NO": 279.37832097458164, "YES": 2.5814271095321146} | 1 | will-ukraine-plant-more-than-25-of-58a9258267a2 | 191.6460000095899 | Will Ukraine plant more than 25% of its Corn crop in 2022? | 1659275940000 | M2w9ohFIw6PK9xyGyALewUGoxER2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.118404249368208 | True | play | YES | public | 1647839759737 | Bunyip | This market resolves "YES" against USDA, Rosstat or other reputable data.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Grain_Supplies_Ukraine_Russia.jpg&utm_content... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7905344670079657, "platformFee": 0.37250583961089867, "liquidityFee": 2.2350350376653916} | 0 | 1659392777019 | 102.05837942229982 | Bunyip | 1659117707319 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510594}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227008}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.2 | 1659117706072 | False | 0.9663593042831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24246299421691136 | psxdYpcX2D4GU6HCmKlq | {"NO": 89.10705372691362, "YES": 1087.178209139226} | 0 | will-a-nato-peacekeeping-mission-in | 1580.0114619373453 | Will a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine actually happen? | 1672491600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2196199934206833 | True | play | NO | public | 1647851673226 | Keepcalmandchill | Some NATO countries have proposed a joint peacekeeping mission into Ukraine. This question will resolve Yes if that actually happens by the deadline. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.143596231494078, "platformFee": 1.3572660385823463, "liquidityFee": 8.143596231494078} | 0 | 1672540204452 | 188.1435962314941 | Keepcalmandchill | 1671065686573 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0.5 | 1671065686450 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2920625209498406 | Mjft5Ea3QiGDYSkIurvL | {"NO": 151.28039764238423, "YES": 2608.6643340898495} | 0 | will-manifold-dollars-become-cheape | 4809.953338647109 | Will Manifold Dollars become cheaper to buy in bigger quantities? | 1704027600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7905534673992998 | True | play | NO | public | 1647851901889 | Keepcalmandchill | Currently the price of 1 Manifold $ is the same in USD regardless of the quantity bought. This question resolves Yes if that changes by the deadline so that is cheaper to buy a larger quantity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.111314027944154, "platformFee": 5.000378902054464, "liquidityFee": 30.00227341232678} | 0 | 1704097708192 | 380.00107721035874 | Keepcalmandchill | 1704097708657 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128590180}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1700769005552 | 1654745657258 | 0.02 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5097712627089288 | 4S9TvlstrrzRXT1EC9Vd | {"NO": 54.33894657792426, "YES": 580.1881151039902} | 0 | will-mariupol-fall-by-april | 1907.3468025304685 | Will Mariupol fall by April? | 1648731600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.372173733497383 | True | play | NO | public | 1647852087760 | Keepcalmandchill | This question resolves to Yes if Russia occupies Mariupol in Ukraine by the deadline. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.78252752056818, "platformFee": 6.297087920094698, "liquidityFee": 37.78252752056818} | 0 | 1648755458970 | 135.2728683441328 | Keepcalmandchill | 1647852087760 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648686869316 | 0.08874779325685105 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5164043236061095 | xnNro3DkEW4ri9ShR0PW | {"NO": 129.62797351890129, "YES": 25.01458509851929} | 1 | will-the-w3igg-grift-counter-exceed-9087c1df6fd8 | 450.76308840857735 | Will the "W3IGG Grift Counter" exceed $250 million in April 2022? | 1650438575988 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.434356563899679 | True | play | YES | public | 1647864026375 | Zhao Nan | https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ maintains a counter of the amount of money that is stolen/lost through "web3" applications (see lower right of the page).
This market resolves YES if this Grift Counter reports more than $250 million for April.
Resolution will happen once the counter exceeds $250 million, or shortly after ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.072028456207681, "platformFee": 0.3453380760346135, "liquidityFee": 2.072028456207681} | 0 | 1650438575988 | 51.365802134355995 | ZhaoNan | 1647864026375 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1650396974466 | 0.8469465525249956 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23296234436207686 | AOloQ1ekIlygIzGQbOck | {"NO": 786.8219525942418, "YES": 10888.639473938914} | 0 | will-tether-usdt-be-unpegged-in-202 | 42850.26587434909 | Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022? | 1672527540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5254875684805533 | True | basic | NO | public | 1647865608645 | Zhao Nan | Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides inf... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.211834406453262, "platformFee": 1.4635054093464759, "liquidityFee": 8.781032456078854} | 0 | 1672592441838 | 1518.654012588333 | ZhaoNan | 1672588899248 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 0 | 1 | 71 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441386}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448986447}] | ["crypto-prices", "stablecoins"] | 0.5 | 1672424677266 | 1672588896953 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999861816615404 | CGe2Cb2wc4QpSz362lE1 | {"NO": 90.20122871445935, "YES": 110.99504975001238} | 1 | will-equatorial-guinea-remove-the-m | 14.999999999999998 | Will Equatorial Guinea remove the mandatory confinement of travelers before 2023? | 1668897198142 | Xrzcgl5uRMUVEaan5VqLgk5SkYH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.776777833054328 | True | play | YES | public | 1647869777488 | Sebastián Ortega | At the opening of this market, all travelers are required to confine for 14 days even if not showing symptoms of covid. This market resolves positively if this restriction is removed or required only for people with symptoms before 2023 according to the [embassy of Guinea site](https://embajada-guinea-ecuatorial.com/me... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.029701499925746253, "platformFee": 0.004950249987624376, "liquidityFee": 0.029701499925746253} | 0 | 1668897198142 | 100.02970149992575 | SebastiánOrtega | 1668897210064 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiscTtlhiAT5UlJw6TLukibndehNzgzL9CfAMpLvQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}] | ["medicine"] | 0.5 | 1667245223229 | 1668897207091 | 0.44832317154555845 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7574373178029687 | MGTW2monTDsds7CoxQTb | {"NO": 1098.6919977340822, "YES": 970.0808136316516} | 0.7795725089839286 | will-international-space-station-be | 2202.781519714534 | Will International Space Station be in orbit on January 1, 2030? | 1830365940000 | NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60578872789187 | False | basic | public | 1647871332192 | paleink | This market will be resolved to yes if, at 01.01.2030, International Space Station will still be orbiting Earth. Whether or not it will have any astronauts on board - doesn't matter
Close date updated to 2028-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0022826914267063403} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.852386531567674, "platformFee": 0.8448017593161695, "liquidityFee": 5.0688105558970165} | 0 | 1000 | paleink | 1719502055779 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 20 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461610}] | ["space"] | 0.65 | 1719502052515 | 1648031131903 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008102589549331 | YYt150JFsgUGKBVBod1n | {"NO": 64.49082696917506, "YES": 40.11041760971323} | 1 | will-the-country-of-turkey-be-recog | 17 | Will the country of Turkey be recognized as "Turkiye" or "Türkiye" at the 77th UNGA in September 2022? | 1654191454437 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.375283729415758 | True | play | YES | public | 1647873126786 | Alex Power | There has been discussion about the possibility of the country of Turkey changing its English name to Turkiye or Türkiye. TRTWorld (Turkish state media) changed its style in December 2021.
This market will resolve based on how the country's name is spelled at the 77th UN General Assembly, scheduled to be held in Septe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4202987984257291, "platformFee": 0.07004979973762152, "liquidityFee": 0.4202987984257291} | 0 | 1654191454437 | 50.420298798425726 | AlexPower | 1654191450256 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985433}] | ["turkey"] | 0.5 | 1654191448178 | 0.6173057185458408 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41896860654720897 | nHp54cN1ZFxZpWFafi6L | {"NO": 82.15303649566061, "YES": 2328.5347996872074} | 0 | will-nato-membership-for-ukraine-be | 3082.2828484754336 | Will NATO membership for Ukraine be off the table before the end of the year? | 1672559940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9729017258290615 | True | play | NO | public | 1647881063069 | Mike Blume | Between now and closing, this market will immediately resolve YES if:
* Russia annexes Ukraine
* Russia installs a Kremlin-friendly government in Ukraine
* NATO heads state formally/publicly that they will not consider Ukraine for membership in NATO
* Ukraine government states formally/publicly that they will not seek... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.256544177083144, "platformFee": 1.1187118832142817, "liquidityFee": 6.712271299285691} | 0 | 1672562410937 | 666.7122712992858 | MichaelBlume | 1672558563249 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 1 | 36 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663005758186}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663005755462}, {"name": "World", "slug": "worl... | ["world-default", "wars", "ukraine", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.85 | 1672558563144 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM | which-member-of-the-grace-is-4-guys | 349 | Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first? | 2209103940000 | EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1647881447723 | Ansh Radhakrishnan |
Close date updated to 2040-01-01 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 400 | anshr | 1683386473243 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxH9CLFQxzyW0Zsjv7UwjWqgsnNO64-X0QosomB=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e6142c7aa804", "prob": 0.08701629815264399, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2685088392780774, "userId": "EqQdY4U7s3PKKqGh4t7gCjmowxp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.80142159258952, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LEAuoprr5GmE86cT9JEM", "createdTime": 1647881447909, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9129837018... | 1 | [] | [] | 1683386472985 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | rzgOknHDYxa7FM8042Cp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.95 | will-richard-rapport-qualify-for-th | 0 | Will Richard Rapport qualify for the 2022 Candidates Tournament. | 1648161453944 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.967372415006668 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647889352772 | Alex Power | This market resolves to YES if:
1) after the end of the third FIDE Grand Prix tournament, Rapport qualifies for the candidates based on his performance in that event. The market will close as YES on or around April 4 if he qualifies that way.
OR
2) Rapport participates in the Candidates Tournament as a replacement for... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648161453944 | 100 | AlexPower | 1647889352772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10441743341749296 | 0DuA6ZVXfnCvAwBp94GW | {"NO": 8.187853104664924, "YES": 245.4975407169219} | 0 | will-russia-announce-that-they-are | 780.5633720368915 | Will Russia announce that they are returning the Kuril Islands to Japan by July 1st, 2022? | 1656745140000 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1647890301740 | Gustavo Lacerda |
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9383197203799452, "platformFee": 0.14347944627010942, "liquidityFee": 0.8608766776206563} | 0 | 1660166647401 | 10.860156244961066 | GustavoLacerda | 1660164551494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1656743403175 | 1660164549840 | 0.0038735107783460874 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8117819693125217 | EmRhMDvrN2gM8uz3OiPG | {"NO": 1366.5382175272482, "YES": 71.3232370371672} | 1 | will-manifold-raise-2m-in-seed-fund | 3060.7789322741005 | Will Manifold raise $2M in seed funding before the end of April? | 1649541842194 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.742928127040678 | True | play | YES | public | 1647898542707 | Manifold | Resolves YES if Manifold Markets secures reasonable offers for investments totaling $2M or more before the end of April 2022. (Having the money wired by this time is not necessary, as long as we have a reasonable expectation that investors will follow through.)
If we raise less than $2M, we resolve according to the pr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.962675513957624, "platformFee": 1.9937792523262707, "liquidityFee": 11.962675513957624} | 0 | 1649541842194 | 111.93303500905644 | Manifold | 1647898542707 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.8 | 1647922376128 | 0.988043416079227 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01187047250462166 | et6LX0XgxI66z180Rtu2 | {"NO": 10.543374299191584, "YES": 0.13043038027861692} | 0.49266391092291384 | test-1d966434c091 | 1101 | test | 1647900678796 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647899374425 | Isaac King | test | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.026770448076686534, "platformFee": 0.004461741346114423, "liquidityFee": 0.026770448076686534} | 0 | 1647900678796 | 10.026770448076686 | IsaacKing | 1647899374425 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.49266391092291373 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.012423389588069739 | 7pVU676nTtVkSTPkiFBl | {"NO": 9.487858868155971, "YES": 550.0663558458177} | 0.000216934296936321 | test-66c1ce29365f | 1101 | test | 1647900668367 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900434005 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.026317527724944875, "platformFee": 0.004386254620824146, "liquidityFee": 0.026317527724944875} | 0 | 1647900668367 | 10.026317527724945 | IsaacKing | 1647900434005 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.000216934296936321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013413454277691238 | Vntfq3ZKb11OP4uf4z7F | {"NO": 9.181047942061767, "YES": 1100.0004137754304} | 0.00011346334218172726 | test-94c724f5998d | 1101 | test | 1647900662270 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900554302 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00791037819061684, "platformFee": 0.0013183963651028066, "liquidityFee": 0.00791037819061684} | 0 | 1647900662270 | 10.007910378190616 | IsaacKing | 1647900554303 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00011346334218172728 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9830298018140534 | RZ37pTYSwH15ObB9bDst | {"NO": 4.812995876938639e-06, "YES": 11.999928502460515} | 2.3233065192109248e-05 | test-f67895fa095b | 2 | test | 1647901485365 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900783114 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00042898523689192947, "platformFee": 7.149753948198824e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00042898523689192947} | 0 | 1647901485365 | 10.00042898523689 | IsaacKing | 1647900783114 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 2.3233065192109272e-05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pctV6HUthNRvoCGAaZue | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-will-be-our-favorite-questions | 0 | What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA? | 1647900979759 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647900968051 | Austin | Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I wi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647900979759 | 100 | Austin | 1647900968051 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy | what-will-be-our-favorite-questions-43f9189067ba | 476 | What will be our favorite question(s) during the Mar 24th AMA? | 1648161900000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.720876373137258 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647901291055 | Austin | Submit any questions you might have as responses in this market. We'll aim to answer them all, and then pick our favorite question(s) as the winner! Join at 3pm PT, Mar 24 here: https://discord.gg/7sekmhnH?event=955590493931196436
Austin reserves the right to arbitrarily spit up points however I want here; though I wi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.560502924061915, "platformFee": 3.1401257310154786, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648161975254 | 999.9999999999999 | Austin | 1647901291055 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "295dec1ed3ac", "prob": 0.04988525765929778, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.726181423934286, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.83085321932445, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sgc4qrDxm2LyK4DwfHXy", "createdTime": 1647901291306, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1648161840103 | {"166b223b4af9": 33.333333333333336, "9c6efb4f2ea1": 33.333333333333336, "c6385c842d91": 33.333333333333336} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | prJmD43kceuGtzwOFyqg | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.99 | test-71d0f7d6b7a3 | 0 | test | 1647901552570 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647901511758 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647901552570 | 10 | IsaacKing | 1672616713182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1672616711441 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9710000394398315 | alnCCwKIqon4ykfR3QmJ | {"NO": 0.9953515854354474, "YES": 30.072799716224825} | 0.5256653448367508 | test-3b2018b14cef | 82 | test | 1647910828872 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.153763573353217 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647902072592 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05668584952195879, "platformFee": 0.00944764158699313, "liquidityFee": 0.05668584952195879} | 0 | 1647910828872 | 10.05668584952196 | IsaacKing | 1647902072592 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.5256653448367506 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | Y0m6DepMazhRpMrOawMr | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.99 | new-test | 0 | new test | 1647903268771 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647903224063 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647903268771 | 10 | IsaacKing | 1647903224063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9865758420064574 | M7RW3eGAw0aVngwuUJIz | {"NO": 0.001660844154590215, "YES": 10.999928672359445} | 0.010974629499165355 | so-much-testing | 1 | so much testing | 1647910769669 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647904155508 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0004279658433224374, "platformFee": 7.132764055373957e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0004279658433224374} | 0 | 1647910769669 | 10.000427965843322 | IsaacKing | 1647904155508 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.010974629499165379 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002842117966589 | dMg54VaJOXjwANknD03b | {"NO": 20.662474582278307, "YES": 275.8945581894519} | 0.08 | this-market-resolves-to-1-higher-th | 797 | This market resolves to 1% higher than its ending probability, modulo 101 | 1648537140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.146282516000486 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647906673972 | Isaac King | For example, if it closes at 85%, it resolves to PROB 86%. If it closes at 100%, it resolves to 0%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.888538766682036, "platformFee": 2.148089794447006, "liquidityFee": 12.888538766682036} | 0 | 1648566861025 | 62.888538766682025 | IsaacKing | 1647906673972 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648107449855 | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EhtdKI8GL2rWOnTONkz0 | test-59c0a875d469 | 100 | test | 1647907472621 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647907456851 | Isaac King | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1647907472621 | 220 | IsaacKing | 1647907456851 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b8171818d7aa", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EhtdKI8GL2rWOnTONkz0", "createdTime": 1647907456999, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs | in-a-competitive-magic-tournament-t | 91 | In a competitive Magic tournament, the player going first draws a card on their first turn of the game. What penalty do they get, and how is it fixed? | 1648105140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.293597507653411 | True | play | b5a0c205cf59 | public | 1647908072590 | Isaac King | If there are multiple correct answers, I'll choose the one that's most specific, ignoring any that seem like they were submitted with excessive specificity in order to take advantage of this clause. If there are no correct answers, I'll add the correct answer myself, then resolve to it. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8000000000000002, "platformFee": 0.20000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648142221867 | 280 | IsaacKing | 1647908072590 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b7d7ed429849", "prob": 0.15378700499807765, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.363750828457441, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.52903893358707, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8t1w3DVTO8lKgGtunlgs", "createdTime": 1647908072786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852267997}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 1647926164192 | {"b5a0c205cf59": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5020755606034039 | oNmxF8ebeeBIiD4eNfQW | {"NO": 32.95622715439844, "YES": 12.83303418103251} | 1 | who-i-win-the-magic-game-in-the-des | 13 | Who I win the Magic game in the description? | 1648018740000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.144043408941945 | True | play | YES | public | 1647910008735 | Isaac King | I'm on Legacy Elves vs. my partner on Legacy Delver. I'm going first.
Elves opening hand: Windswept Heath, Verdant Catacombs, Gaea's Cradle, Nettle Sentinel, Heritage Druid, Quirion Ranger, Green Sun's Zenith.
Delver opening hand: Island, Volcanic Island, Daze, 2xBrainstorm, Expressive Iteration, Dragon's Rage Channe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26263707360935185, "platformFee": 0.04377284560155864, "liquidityFee": 0.26263707360935185} | 0 | 1648053508794 | 20.26263707360935 | IsaacKing | 1647910008735 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852237370}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.5 | 1647995831788 | 0.7214086767698288 |
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