CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM

this-market-resolves-to-the-user-wh

291.3387584875841

This market resolves to the user who left the most comments.

1648461540000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.882909027364393

True

play

286e01741437

public

1647910725474

Isaac King

Purchase a response with your username, then leave as many comments as you feel like leaving. Your comments can either be in response to your answer or to someone else's, doesn't matter. The user who left the most comments by the close date will win. In the event that I'm unable to conclusively determine who won, suc...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1648511966448

420

IsaacKing

1647910725474

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

7

0

ANYONE

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1

1648415634894

{"286e01741437": 100}

True

L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E

if-kyiv-falls-in-2022-when-will-it

705.3594619396844

If Kyiv falls in 2022, when will it happen?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.703495283320418

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647910997988

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10284/if-kyiv-falls-in-2022-when-will-it-happen/ Acceptable answers: months, i.e. "March", "April", "May", etc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1673754097910

720

MetaculusBot

1658616134092

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f0b7f4c2a4c1", "prob": 0.8551085144272028, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.120442175096034, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.76479016752963, "textFts": "", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1647910998244, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

3

4

1658616132801

1673754094851

True

ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp

how-many-civilian-casualties-of-the

559.0001999999996

How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?

1651662033372

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.704385778096899

True

play

2e60d44464a7

public

1647911186476

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10283/civilian-casualties-before-may-2022/ Rounded to nearest 1,000, i.e. "6,000", "7,000", etc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1651662033372

4579.999999999989

MetaculusBot

1647911186476

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "747a837e6ddf", "prob": 0.8533388145134052, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.784727521959926, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.197278809546385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647911186660, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

{"2e60d44464a7": 100}

True

0.2878455418702778

LruiEGGWG2xA29vCk3Ib

{"NO": 474.5479846871158, "YES": 1055.8042361792513}

0.17

what-proportion-of-nato-member-stat

1130.118226499817

What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?

1711994154872

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

0.7578834627897764

True

play

MKT

public

1647911374256

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10285/-nato-states-to-increase-spending-25/ Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole percentage.

BINARY

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0

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0

1711994154872

600.611260892921

MetaculusBot

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https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

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0

4

0.31

1700317386864

0.17

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.22567116838755152

CxwT3tijwgfYs1pjG0p6

{"NO": 41.13515930090083, "YES": 97.92802482420201}

0

will-manifold-markets-employs-someo

107.1845878463578

Will Manifold Markets employs someone, any role, who at the time of employment offer is on the Leaderboard from now until end of 2022.

1672495260000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

6.371807672658813

True

play

NO

public

1647922776054

Undox

Part time or full time, temporary or permanent, but must be more than 4 weeks work at outset (so no really short contracts to fix something up). Timed based when offer is made. Confirmed by one of the 3 founders. Doesn't resolve YET if this has already happened before market start (since give an unfair advantage to tho...

BINARY

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61.18560911304574

Undox

1673884642005

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https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

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0

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0.75

1672324864042

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0.11

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{"NO": 186.34080538216685, "YES": 50.33149593818848}

1

will-there-be-a-tier-1-combo-deck-i

95

Will there be a Tier 1 combo deck in wild after the next Hearthstone expansion?

1651434101027

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.9512907165837827

True

play

YES

public

1647924035614

Bolton Bailey

The next Hearthstone expansion, "Voyage to the Sunken City", comes out April 12. I would like to know if there will be a good combo deck for me to play. A combo deck is a deck that relies on a very powerful interaction between a few cards in the deck to generate a very powerful advantage or immediate win. This market...

BINARY

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0

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101.39845512746824

BoltonBailey

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1651425580443

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{"NO": 116.89511928172408, "YES": 72.48408209977485}

0.40924868532580255

if-erik-demaines-group-gets-a-manif

17

If Erik Demaine's group gets a Manifold For Teams instance, will it have at least 5 active users in May?

1650599940000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

3.2964642065076233

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647925293157

Jenny

Resolves N/A if we don't have a private MM instance by the end of April 21 2022. Resolves YES if at least 5 users make at least one bet each in May. Resolves NO if fewer than 5 users make bets in May. All times are EST.

BINARY

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0

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100.62928430965557

Jenny

1647925293157

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https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

4

0

1

0.3

1647985154042

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{"NO": 2648.632089098459, "YES": 0.06098828679920967}

1

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-4d1da71ccc84

3205

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $930 on March 22, 2022?

1647975600000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.091169554805136

True

play

YES

public

1647957629199

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This qu...

BINARY

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0

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0

1647980240685

10.664829216846112

Predictor

1647957629199

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

6

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425114}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1647963898746

0.9999791434616789

0.046586973548763594

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{"NO": 959.7911506871352, "YES": 1696.3483985419537}

0.02690303176809139

will-the-united-states-elect-its-fi

1559.3211070731604

Will the United States elect it's first LGBTQ+ President in 2024

1734328740000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1647974379299

Scott Owens

Resolved dependent on the orientation that the winning candidate self-identifies as.

BINARY

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1000

ScottOwens

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[{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659503780046}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581432}, {"name": "Politics", "...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "lgbtqia", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"]

0.2

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{"NO": 831.9180967476566, "YES": 458.6472420134309}

0.8152913959691132

will-a-prior-or-current-congress-pe

690.1899340068131

Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.

1734328740000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.39662119713985

False

play

public

1647975842470

Scott Owens

Some examples of what kind of office that will resolve this question: -Member of the House of Representatives -Senators -Cabinet Secretaries and undersecretaries -Directors, high ranking bureaucrats of Government Agencies -White House officials such as Chief of Staff, Press Secretary -United States Attorneys -High ...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.3404066046246954, "platformFee": 0.5567344341041159, "liquidityFee": 3.3404066046246954}

0

543.3404066046246

ScottOwens

1699586101567

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

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0

4

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581504}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492996}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scott...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"]

0.7

1699586101429

False

0.10438897385381693

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{"NO": 139.13058392638257, "YES": 521.0628640854114}

0

will-pakistans-prime-minister-imran

611.6870236728877

Will Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan be the first PM to finish his tenure?

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93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2

cpmm-1

0

5.384281492290337

True

play

NO

public

1647978342575

John Smith

This market resolves NO if Mr. Khan is ousted from his position before Aug 2023. Note: no PM of Pakistan has successfully completed their tenure. More recently, see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-parliament.html https://www.ft.com/content/870369af-b673-4ce5-bd86-d89d28be4d40 ...

BINARY

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1649550014120

154.7328859577195

JohnSmith

1647978342575

0

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0

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487247}]

["politics-default"]

0.1

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{"NO": 45.807783946849035, "YES": 70.75996852888011}

0

will-sergey-karjakin-or-the-russian

34

Will Sergey Karjakin (or the Russian Chess Federation) successfully appeal Karjakin's suspension?

1651388340000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

0

5.807325120275551

True

play

NO

public

1647978496621

taeyeon

FIDE recently imposed a 6 month ban on Sergey Karjakin from any FIDE sanctioned tournament for beaching the FIDE code of ethics. Karjakin has stated he will not appeal the suspension, however, it has been reported that the RCF will. This market will resolve YES if Karjakin's suspension is reduced or retracted from any...

BINARY

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taeyeon

1647978496621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

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4

[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969413}]

["chess"]

0.25

0.1774266364573437

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{"NO": 780.834307980457, "YES": 4357.101039682177}

0.016242608074358275

will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-10126fe153d6

7343.5159038727315

Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist

1734328740000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1647979258825

Scott Owens

Dependent of whether or not that the winner self-describes as a "socialist" regardless of what polices advocated or record. "Democratic Socialist" counts as well. Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm Mar 23, 11:17am: for transparency: I set the close date till after the election is likely to be certified. I acci...

BINARY

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1000

ScottOwens

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76

1

32

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870161}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494594}, {"name": "Sco...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics", "leftism"]

0.4

1719619585366

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False

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{"NO": 535.4795864323836, "YES": 65.749603102705}

1

will-the-ftx-future-fund-decide-to

4877.365305119358

Will the FTX Future Fund decide to fund Manifold for Good?

1652823533856

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.604852487778542

True

play

YES

public

1647983004874

Austin

Resolves YES iff Manifold receives any amount of non-profit funding from FTX FF for charity prediction markets, or a clear expression of intent to send funding, by the closing of this market. Our application is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-mar...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 28.237290139185856, "platformFee": 4.706215023197644, "liquidityFee": 28.237290139185856}

0

1652823533856

128.06774148253064

Austin

1652824659007

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

22

0

0.5

1652823317976

1652824657675

0.9247690341410733

5CJCIwGU7hRhjhJ7k8zk

what-portion-of-donations-via-manif

76

What portion of donations via Manifold's first CPM will go to each charity?

1648763940000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.118072084176344

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647985107874

Gurkenglas

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-markets Resolves PROB according to the donation distribution. Might resolve N/A if they don't launch it as planned. Jun 8, 9:47pm: What a strange market to find in my profile history. No answers except one that didn't u...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1654717901271

240

Gurkenglas

1647985107874

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8a64d8efb635", "prob": 0.9738573407202216, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.29426992624677, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.0279884015756926, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5CJCIwGU7hRhjhJ7k8zk", "createdTime": 1647985108080, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1665931643244}]

["manifold-for-charity"]

True

0.3302097930872496

HJHiVKeEYZ2dmrbBB5cB

{"NO": 112.93947471853906, "YES": 87.28217380369163}

0.3894723891459752

will-raymond-step-on-the-grass-by-t

10

Will Raymond step on the grass by the end of WARP

1647988198473

JkqwQgiy8BeNB7iFmSd2yFhSa6L2

cpmm-1

0

3.060328339179426

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647988075156

Sergey

Provided enough force

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 0.3631516887656291, "platformFee": 0.06052528146093819, "liquidityFee": 0.3631516887656291}

0

1647988198473

103.36315168876563

PixelSergey

1647988075156

0

https://firebasestorage.…576-70a8bba893af

1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479886}]

["politics-default"]

0.33

0.5091944156501635

WrrBaug5wgRKD4RBE7l2

{"NO": 199.4576677995835, "YES": 60.24467958109806}

0.774512586329217

will-morning-meta-start-by-900-am-o

238

Will morning meta start by 9:00 AM on 23.03.2022

1648025400000

JkqwQgiy8BeNB7iFmSd2yFhSa6L2

cpmm-1

0

2.7912949774322158

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647988579587

Sergey

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680901686605

104.22779377956479

PixelSergey

1647988579587

0

https://firebasestorage.…576-70a8bba893af

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072276}]

["please-resolve"]

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1680901684380

0.77

0.85

bfzV4lL41U81W1LlF1cg

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.85

how-many-fantasy-points-will-christ

0

How many fantasy points will Christian McCaffrey score in the 2022 NFL regular season?

1653003294643

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

5.436448474979963

True

play

CANCEL

public

1647994549276

David Glidden

This market resolves to the ratio of PPR fantasy points scored out of 400 points by Christian McCaffrey in the 2022 regular NFL season according to https://fantasydata.com/nfl/christian-mccaffrey-fantasy/18877. Examples: >=400 points = 100% 300 points = 75% 200 points = 50% 100 points = 25% <=0 points = 0%

BINARY

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0

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1653003294643

100

dglid

1653003321454

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

0

0.85

1653003320021

0.85

0.5564158592066887

xffgLeyl7NJAson7MlBi

{"NO": 40.791938863159075, "YES": 49.16133226354418}

0.5

will-existing-markets-be-converted

891.9007336283958

Will existing markets be converted to CFMM?

1672538210919

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

2.2663955591441183

True

play

MKT

public

1647994725342

Martin Randall

This market resolves yes if open markets are converted from DPM to CPMM during 2022. Markets that are not converted because they are closed or closing soon do not count against this. This market resolves no if no markets are converted in 2022. If some but not all open markets are converted, for example based on size,...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 8.597620875974084, "platformFee": 0.8322785363227775, "liquidityFee": 4.993671217936664}

0

1672538210919

45.24147621727988

MartinRandall

1667250144757

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

16

0

15

0.5

1667250142163

1655856316623

0.5

0.846045886899675

yhkksSIBq46MC0u5G677

{"NO": 1926.470007401764, "YES": 69.89593856607554}

1

will-the-mega-back-door-roth-be-leg

3017.0135669220617

Will the mega back door Roth be legal in 2023?

1672583811756

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

5.828927159636286

True

play

YES

public

1647995296252

Martin Randall

This market resolves to yes if the mega back door Roth is legal in the US for the tax year 2023. This market resolves to no if the mega back door Roth is blocked completely, or if additional restrictions are placed on it. This market resolves on Jan 1st, 2023 and ignores tax changes made after that date, even if they...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.655500153654736, "platformFee": 0.3291685498651271, "liquidityFee": 1.975011299190763}

0

1672583811756

121.97501129919075

MartinRandall

1672561977939

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

13

0

13

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513579}]

["politics-default"]

0.8

1672561977785

1648759949215

0.99

0.5061014911170658

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{"NO": 284.1743202881552, "YES": 42.70767471050968}

1

will-the-united-states-have-the-wor

285.48049724463533

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

1654083559612

8gGZcrc6zkRWVhSjTFa4eAUZWHz1

cpmm-1

0

3.038394125008485

True

play

YES

public

1648004829233

Adam Siegel

Taken from INFER: https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4730140905874824, "platformFee": 0.7455023484312472, "liquidityFee": 4.4730140905874824}

0

1654083559612

104.47301409058748

AdamSiegel

1654083428582

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyYNB3ca3YnHnbUlCrYvvp34Yi4ZQPFf2R82J_L=s96-c

8

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452811}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1654083428373

1654074733098

0.8642990393697516

0.20532723577368028

JMNAK3bqzXBgHZcJEH11

{"NO": 945.6734354811803, "YES": 1152.6637926480282}

0.17490450174336578

will-a-second-us-supreme-court-just

578.1347545309492

Will a second U.S. Supreme Court Justice publicly announce they are retiring any time during President Biden's first term in office?

1737439140000

8gGZcrc6zkRWVhSjTFa4eAUZWHz1

cpmm-1

0

9.69740401719641

False

basic

public

1648005485511

Adam Siegel

This market will resolve yes if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice makes their own public announcement they are retiring while President Biden is still in office during his first term (up until January 20, 2025.) If a Justice dies or leaves the court in some other manner than retirement, this market will resolve no. If no Ju...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.313955423631285, "platformFee": 0.8556214650220182, "liquidityFee": 5.133728790132108}

0

1000

AdamSiegel

1708347566456

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyYNB3ca3YnHnbUlCrYvvp34Yi4ZQPFf2R82J_L=s96-c

29

0

22

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427743}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480903}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzU...

["politics-default", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "scotus", "supreme-court"]

0.5

1708347566308

aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK

why-cant-i-make-a-market-using-fire

123

why can't I make a market (using firefox)

1648105140000

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.955056960160141

True

play

MKT

public

1648007779778

Nathan

Mar 22, 8:56pm: tried to make yes/no and couldn't get it to work. This free-answer question worked though.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648141310252

320

NathanHelmBurger

1648007779778

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9ba743f1f25e", "prob": 0.6609822195782934, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.80510575385723, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.13533874115337, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648007780070, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

{"5cba6dc2ac56": 38.131396500495214, "7cbbba4c96ed": 22.086497193793328, "c71d71ce396c": 39.78210630571146}

True

0.5018465901669832

SpMwswD81Un1j0uU5sbl

{"NO": 73.91316553871275, "YES": 141.78886549526786}

1

will-steamvr-users-rise-from-about

233.17002823995938

Will SteamVR users rise from about 2.9% currently to above 3.5% by August 1st 2022?

1659509940000

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-1

0

2.7764418308745125

True

play

YES

public

1648009761772

Nathan

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.941279447585581, "platformFee": 0.20803145400656625, "liquidityFee": 1.2481887240393976}

0

1659624247825

101.2481887240394

NathanHelmBurger

1659462427022

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

7

0

1

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411286}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449023}]

["technology-default", "gaming"]

0.5

1659462300963

1659462424793

0.34432895810600145

0.10941786508144508

Uu43CTlgWsIhaxeYwkmL

{"NO": 74.32599460670973, "YES": 1528.1695068384768}

0

will-httpngatecom-webshit-weekly-up

1598.4992467512943

Will http://n-gate.com webshit weekly update this year?

1672664340000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

7.862097924818762

True

play

NO

public

1648011208583

Undox

It has been a while since the last post. Resolves YES if a webshit weekly is posted this year. Will ignore other changes to the site or other content.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4443861405047596, "platformFee": 0.40739769008412663, "liquidityFee": 2.4443861405047596}

0

1672740709841

112.44438614050476

Undox

1672692199072

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

11

0

1

11

0.25

1672656305608

1672692196304

0.01

0.17152934088943816

oNxkzFzcfYlh6eGsFr3Q

{"NO": 113.85748883509878, "YES": 960.3885163896443}

0

will-ukraine-officially-recognize-c

2330.317561207532

Will Ukraine officially recognize Crimea as Russian before June 2022?

1654059540000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

3.794514058187988

True

play

NO

public

1648012126974

SG

Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.342179991410653, "platformFee": 3.0570299985684417, "liquidityFee": 18.342179991410653}

0

1656287929163

167.8516926448696

SG

1654056601625

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

37

0

1

0.5

1654056600353

1648453728656

0.023957670202071454

0.16606492442549703

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{"NO": 96.21102488635694, "YES": 342.95483829836905}

0.05290850785310377

will-lukashenko-lose-power-during-2

2106.044359871973

Will Lukashenko lose power during 2022?

1663277451346

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

4.598195808949669

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648027732678

Account deletion requested

Is Lukashenko going to lose power as controller of Belarus? Dying also will resolve this as yes. Note that both collapse of Belarus, finalizing vassalization by Russia, opposition winning all will resolve as YES. Completely losing power will cause this to resolve early, but I will wait until situation is clear (coup ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663277451346

122.62072168382656

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277461713

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

45

0

43

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479959}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}]

["politics-default", "global-macro"]

0.1

1663249261922

1663277459531

0.05290850785310377

0.5480763768536469

NdpncaV1xXmNpAoL9tZ1

{"NO": 211.9420641146907, "YES": 1.023087736673019}

0

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-695945fb182f

2916

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $1000 on March 23, 2022?

1648062000000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

9.929083774141056

True

play

NO

public

1648040040740

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This qu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3605847744310657, "platformFee": 0.22676412907184434, "liquidityFee": 1.3605847744310657}

0

1648065761557

11.360584774431068

Predictor

1648040040740

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

5

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425187}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1648060528661

0.9960354447660503

0.050414625329889086

ZoqRAPmJhyTzboPVZ6Gd

{"NO": 522.9393764221215, "YES": 258.078641411637}

0

will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili-71a34a770ba5

165

Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 1000 readers by Tau Day, June 28th, 2022?

1656478740000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

0

3.8157658937908825

True

play

NO

public

1648050288790

Patrick Delaney

After this previous market, which blew past the goal: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili I honestly did not expect that goal to be reached, so I thought it would be good to put together what seems like an even less realistic goal - 1000 readers. Here's the free code: https://l...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.295913687675169, "platformFee": 0.3912278981567464, "liquidityFee": 2.3473673889404787}

0

1656702956569

502.3473673889404

PatrickDelaney

1656475079306

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

8

0

1

0.05

1656475077928

1648126085639

0.09712871611541547

IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg

how-will-range-markets-work-in-mani

339

How will "range markets" work in Manifold?

1651388340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.752510435153312

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648056403638

Austin

A popular request is for Manifold to natively support "range markets" aka scalar markets: markets where you predict from a continuous range of numbers, rather than a binary YES/NO or a percent from 0-100%. See also: https://manifold.markets/Cyril/will-manifold-implement-range-marke This market will resolve to the opt...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652366777205

520

Austin

1651421055993

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6c5947b6fcfa", "prob": 0.08701629815264399, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.417752841862162, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.367304592101988, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056403987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1651421055718

True

0.19023079573783183

IgJJtS52snLWLT5SJJL8

{"NO": 90.02783636008554, "YES": 2123.180465242023}

0

regarding-the-prescription-drug-fin

2207.145907199133

Regarding the prescription drug finasteride taken for hair loss: Will FDA approval be revoked by the end of 2023?

1703998740000

iNcIfgKc3mN3JnNuZ01Kg9Iu6U32

cpmm-1

0

3.983916013953475

True

play

NO

public

1648057724329

Marmot

This market resolves to YES if, as of Dec 31, 2023 at 11:59 pm, the US Food and Drug Administration has revoked approval of finasteride 1 mg/day taken for androgenetic alopecia (male pattern hair loss). Mar 26, 10:02am: A foundation has sued FDA for not responding to a petition requesting that Propecia be removed from...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.128125012073166, "platformFee": 0.877836423159262, "liquidityFee": 5.267018538955572}

0

1704382836871

205.26701853895554

marmot

1704382837082

0

https://firebasestorage.…079-0d253727e111

1

11

0

1

5

[{"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1686269188752}]

["new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703990995670

1704382831399

0.01

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.12376278611286429

AWeiMd6tJH0g2JukEQfc

{"NO": 42.88910045215063, "YES": 217.80673218219113}

0

will-the-los-angeles-lakers-make-th

651.1709834705174

Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the 2022 NBA Playoffs?

1649224662862

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

0

9.306767437513212

True

play

NO

public

1648064373477

taeyeon

This market will resolve 'YES' if the Lakers make the playoffs as any seed (1st through 8th). Starting odds taken from 538's forecast on 3/23 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/ Close date updated to 2022-04-10 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.70504336442841, "platformFee": 0.6175072274047352, "liquidityFee": 3.70504336442841}

0

1649224662862

53.68587689188689

taeyeon

1648064373477

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

12

0

0.09

0.027060138732521707

0.505316566611268

14fM9m8qDbCWmPvVTE0Z

{"NO": 85.55174616167446, "YES": 31.492781826497975}

1

will-imperial-college-london-win-th

55

Will Imperial College London win the University Challenge Season 51?

1648969140000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

0

4.421240835611745

True

play

YES

public

1648065923078

taeyeon

Resolves 'YES' if Imperial College London wins season 51 of the University Challenge on April 4, 2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8189929315897686, "platformFee": 0.1364988219316281, "liquidityFee": 0.8189929315897686}

0

1649108364977

50.81899293158977

taeyeon

1648065923078

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

2

0

1

0.5

0.7350953186749526

1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp

who-will-win-the-2022-nba-mvp-award

1237.7210747584822

Who will win the 2022 NBA MVP Award?

1649660340000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.664091714684815

True

play

fb642f131fca

public

1648066653695

taeyeon

Resolves to the winner of the 2022 NBA Regular Season MVP Award. Close date updated to 2022-04-10 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.14758946279544, "platformFee": 4.78689736569886, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652315863723

780

taeyeon

1652112523254

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9f84c4749ad6", "prob": 0.002521576924356804, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.012315936750868109, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.871904184358314, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066653905, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

1652112519337

{"fb642f131fca": 100}

True

Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7

who-will-qualify-on-pole-position-i

254

Who will qualify on pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?

1648278000000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.823114985464495

True

play

fc0ace3e63d5

public

1648067449017

taeyeon

Resolves to the driver who qualifies in pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. Qualification happens on 2022/03/26 13:00 EST.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.590281101127404, "platformFee": 2.147570275281851, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648321772774

520

taeyeon

1648067449017

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b502680743e7", "prob": 0.05370442959242023, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0803708096666362, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.03660683753881, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067449184, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

{"fc0ace3e63d5": 100}

True

g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE

who-will-win-the-2022-f1-saudi-arab

321

Who will win the 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?

1648364400000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.79008557156379

True

play

2d823a2ef744

public

1648067873391

taeyeon

Resolves to the driver who wins the 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. Racing starts on 2022/03/27 10:00 PDT.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.32, "platformFee": 2.08, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648405858615

600

taeyeon

1648067873391

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b98016d1c19c", "prob": 0.03669940253372675, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5730566586073208, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.041820397788397, "textFts": "", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067873544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

{"2d823a2ef744": 100}

True

Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv

which-driver-will-win-the-2022-f1-d

385

Which driver will win the 2022 F1 Drivers Championship?

1660892340000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.737074120130433

True

play

71872a436041

public

1648068174399

taeyeon

Resolves to the driver that wins the 2022 F1 Drivers Championship by placing first in the 2022 F1 Drivers Points Standings Close date updated to 2022-08-18 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666054568847

879.9999999999999

taeyeon

1660835406433

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9f43ddd3965f", "prob": 0.06746500252993759, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.071488790807616, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.810653810938271, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068174602, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

10

1660835405160

{"71872a436041": 100}

True

G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq

which-team-will-win-the-2022-f1-con

315.99024234236936

Which team will win the 2022 F1 Constructors Championship?

1660892340000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.780833668799442

True

play

95a4424f46e2

public

1648068301178

taeyeon

Resolves to the team that wins the 2022 F1 Constructors Championship by placing first in the 2022 F1 Constructors Points Standings Close date updated to 2022-08-18 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666558139775

600.0000000000001

taeyeon

1660835517481

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "92fc52e9b378", "prob": 0.1304075626960426, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.7033752187501148, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.695094487964976, "textFts": "", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068301353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

7

1660835516140

1648139556243

{"95a4424f46e2": 100}

True

0.4

VMSi7zauH8ocqXPFYxB9

{"NO": 175, "YES": 175}

0.4

will-the-2024-presidential-election

0

Will the 2024 Presidential Election winner of attempted or advocated for overturning the results of 2020 Presidential election?

1648140512094

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

1.8832713489294053

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648069027634

Scott Owens

This market resolves to yes if the winner has ever advocated for overturning the 2020 elections irrespective of validity or sincerity of claims.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648140512094

175

ScottOwens

1648069027634

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489530}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866872}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "create...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.4

False

0.4

0.017290791845772525

OSeCV2xIvE3PlMWCrpSd

{"NO": 9.502629207105953, "YES": 31.003612232859037}

0

will-the-syrian-rebels-capture-dama

79.0621718092325

Will the Syrian rebels capture Damascus as of December 31, 2022?

1672462740000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1648069167975

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to "yes" if the Syrian rebels capture Damascus as of December 31, 2022. If the Syrian government controls it or if the city is contested, the market resolves to "no".

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0406840913610889, "platformFee": 0.006780681893514818, "liquidityFee": 0.0406840913610889}

0

1672931911545

10.040684091361088

EnopoletusHarding

1667245270336

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

9

0

2

9

0.01

1667245268787

0.01

0.5953678333511391

dtqXwIlhPFOWtPdfX3Qn

{"NO": 66.16942395520428, "YES": 167.0115185904345}

0

will-phoenix-be-the-most-represente

1056

Will Phoenix be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Pioneer Showcase Challenge on Sunday?

1648386000000

EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2

cpmm-1

0

2.7062325000134413

True

play

NO

public

1648084990575

andrei klepatch

Resolves Yes if I identify Phoenix as the most prevalent archetype in top thirty two of the Pioneer Showcase Challenge event on 2022-03-27. Market closes at start of event. Market resolved after results are published. Mar 30, 6:59pm: As per https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/pioneer-challenge-12401453#paper Lotus ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.977557376157157, "platformFee": 1.3295928960261931, "liquidityFee": 7.977557376157157}

0

1648681488300

107.97755737615716

andreiklepatch

1695246470195

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c

8

0

1

0.6

1695246469695

0.36827056292016935

0.43837060140532375

gTwqQ6FyZwNdABZ6lCff

{"NO": 145.667143046909, "YES": 314.7593865816468}

1

will-chs-end-rostered-days-by-the-e

122

Will CHS end rostered days by the end of next week?

1648242275641

ekXqqrqC3gTkbvtEpnGKdGixUJM2

cpmm-1

0

1.6834952492618875

True

play

YES

public

1648086484567

Matt

Will resolve to YES if no rostered days are taken the week after next, will resolve to NO if they are still taken, even in modified form.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0968424821504286, "platformFee": 0.3494737470250714, "liquidityFee": 2.0968424821504286}

0

1648242275641

202.09684248215044

Matthewmiaow

1648086484567

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHgN9LC-QpoSgrsO0Zw2H-UQO2LQDImnXXxSKM=s96-c

3

0

0.44

0.26536611074108485

0.6340619951666974

j3aLn2TjF0zkhnTabxB6

{"NO": 221.1528163111235, "YES": 68.00108601807159}

1

will-and-still-be-together-by-the-e

225

Will ## and ## still be together by the end of July?

1659268740000

ekXqqrqC3gTkbvtEpnGKdGixUJM2

cpmm-1

0

3.0599548064783075

True

play

YES

public

1648086812882

Matt

Resolves to YES if still "together" in some form (does not have to be exclusive) by end of July 2022, resolves to NO if not together. Status at discretion of admin.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.538374856880377, "platformFee": 0.3905086357420047, "liquidityFee": 2.3430518144520276}

0

1660193413512

102.34305181445202

Matthewmiaow

1660192674733

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHgN9LC-QpoSgrsO0Zw2H-UQO2LQDImnXXxSKM=s96-c

5

0

1

0.63

1658996999654

1660192669529

0.8492861367399004

0.44861680614226485

Axqh6BMAWVVuBzBxXUX6

{"NO": 148.66792460578577, "YES": 84.74286730654114}

1

100-bounty-will-someone-combine-the

2141.0296797738883

$100 bounty: Will someone combine these two datasets between obesity & water contamination?

1653716561976

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.5600761390540114

True

play

YES

public

1648087612798

Austin

Context: Slime Mold Time Mold has an interesting hypothesis: environmental contaminants cause obesity. Elizabeth has found two data sources which could be combined to test this hypothesis. 1: EWG's drinking water database, which has contaminants by zip code https://data.world/arnholdinst/drinking-water-contaminations ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.1351146692776, "platformFee": 1.5225191115462666, "liquidityFee": 9.1351146692776}

0

1653716561976

107.87203936958862

Austin

1653716553878

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

26

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524262}]

["science-default"]

0.35

1653666634290

1653716552431

0.5880312533173366

0.618730360816266

H8hgJ7x0esSiMCZXdNVe

{"NO": 1108.4099073613293, "YES": 918.5971934072068}

0.661950124869313

does-covid19-have-hidden-longterm-n

524.9515596364242

Does Covid-19 have hidden long-term negative health effects?

1742857140000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

3.126288584703627e-16

9.683671013469294

False

basic

public

1648109139670

Zhao Nan

Some people are worried that a Covid-19 infection could have consequences which are still not apparent now, like the effects of an HIV infection which start getting bad only after several years. This market resolves YES if such effects are found and published in peer-reviewed medical literature. Effects commonly subsum...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009949223534897023}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.833034416992745, "platformFee": 1.2519684343655817, "liquidityFee": 3.2730778037738504}

0

1000

ZhaoNan

1719674922316

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

1

27

1

20

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601087}]

["medicine"]

0.09991935211680568

0.33

1719613147819

1719674921173

RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd

some-games-i-enjoyed-are-creeper-wo

84.99790203321201

Some games I enjoyed are Creeper World, Tentacle Wars, Deep, and Flow. What similar games will I enjoy?

1651388400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.157097505578517

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648150690682

Isaac King

In your answer, please mention whether the game is free or not. I'll try all of the free ones, and I'll try the top few of the paid ones. I'm primarily looking for games that have a similar aesthetic, so I might select an answer that feels like what I'm looking for even if I don't personally enjoy it all that much, an...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.17005336327533313, "platformFee": 0.04251334081883328, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654100745141

340

IsaacKing

1648150690682

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "42ed3c8aecba", "prob": 0.5249678387638109, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.912531184696384, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.213567141208344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648150691047, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1648265638243

True

0.5

mJgg2n8rBkkLBB59hhOX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

niausndiluawef

0

[‌placeholder]

1648796340000

TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648153221541

Luna Nova

Lol, zwnj

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702261396682

100

LunaNova

1701545205095

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c

0

1

0.5

1701545204423

0.5

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.49578707934656097

fXmCFbL8PwDFMT5XB2vX

{"NO": 5.305856129685916, "YES": 19.980000000000004}

1

will-the-luc-in-uruguay-stand

10

Will the LUC in Uruguay stand?

1648353540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

9.582128230664509

True

play

YES

public

1648153232821

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to "yes" if voters approve of the continuation of the LUC in Uruguay on March 27. It resolves to "no" if voters vote to overturn the LUC. Close date updated to 2022-03-26 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.12000000000000008, "platformFee": 0.020000000000000014, "liquidityFee": 0.12000000000000008}

0

1648480249271

10.12

EnopoletusHarding

1648153232821

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

1

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498452}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

0.20705445654697802

YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w

what-are-the-most-interesting-facts

550

What are the most interesting facts/opinions/questions about prediction markets?

1649274077508

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7111990411760445

True

play

MKT

public

1648159651352

Daniel Reeves

This market resolves to whatever the market probabilities are at market close. Does that make this prediction market impossibly circular? Maybe! It's an experiment. My hypothesis is that it's a bit of a popularity contest but is still interesting and meaningful. Bet on your favorite response and if other traders don't ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.960000000000003, "platformFee": 1.2400000000000007, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649274077508

800.0000000000002

dreev

1648159651352

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3db4bed22628", "prob": 0.04076143320693326, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5761745220734136, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.559111623248139, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648159651610, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1648769497089

{"0b65e05f2e77": 5.104041887219563, "5e33cf4df1b9": 17.80510888187156, "75a01c36d5ed": 19.0968087946084, "80c375d6bf10": 6.5054568133154005, "9637ab951720": 7.979652162640971, "a441638f8c47": 16.152098089519974, "b479dbb6a680": 3.8810526607114246, "e507fab4373d": 7.529151268867915, "f8fd76051f4f": 7.806057539537487, "f...

True

0.4682085659871697

xX1DwGnkHUsgu5ALDZEE

{"NO": 274.20898047226103, "YES": 73.52651050529283}

0.7665455195315329

will-thestalwart-have-a-verified-tw

1262.5533819055229

Will @TheStalwart have a verified Twitter account by April 15, 2022?

1649624097082

zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-1

0

2.278772721281543

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648161121619

Alex Power

Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) probably should have a verified account on Twitter. He has 300k followers and a podcast published by Bloomberg. This is an action market: I cannot figure out how to ask Twitter to verify an account, but I assume somebody here can do that.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.590292187438397, "platformFee": 2.7650486979063995, "liquidityFee": 16.590292187438397}

0

1649624097082

114.7718685569497

AlexPower

1648161121619

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c

4

0

0.5

1649624088792

0.17366997164518444

0.4969425920738354

Tg0HBg5ms5AxGn1apP87

{"NO": 24.061124877440072, "YES": 69.92615384615385}

0

will-pauper-delver-win-this-game-ag

30

Will Pauper Delver win this game against Pauper Affinity?

1648364340000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

5.065591456259095

True

play

NO

public

1648161275796

Isaac King

Board state: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qbKvZkKoxkjfTR2M-pfU-pFl0Bvh22Hq/view?usp=sharing (The die next to Affinity's lands is a Treasure token.) Affinity player has just started their turn; they've drawn but haven't done anything else. Life totals are Delver at 12 vs. Affinity at 15. Delver's hand is Snap, Sp...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.44307692307692315, "platformFee": 0.07384615384615387, "liquidityFee": 0.44307692307692315}

0

1648391838680

40.44307692307692

IsaacKing

1648161275796

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

0

1

0.5

0.25368166051113084

0.837864189288682

QB27Xf0dE4tJoEmorfiT

{"NO": 0.35984649072318264, "YES": 58.83952206867809}

0.2

will-the-january-2028-mauna-loa-co2

513

Will the January 2028 Mauna Loa CO2 reading be lower than 427 ppm?

1654573664894

zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-1

0

8.559303562794488

True

play

MKT

public

1648162414349

Alex Power

I'm paying you to do the research for me. I will buy YES in response to good comments.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.12617994044134667, "platformFee": 0.02102999007355778, "liquidityFee": 0.12617994044134667}

0

1654573664894

50.12617994044135

AlexPower

1652179582881

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c

3

0

0.9

1652179581374

0.2

0.30182521577558746

icLMDruY3wpjLeUaKUJu

{"NO": 172.34023201195197, "YES": 7260.876616369136}

0

will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8

19884.65833176868

Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022?

1672639140000

kxVFFkiufTN6rqivB2h0dHnJG7v1

cpmm-1

0

1.5317612577539146

True

play

NO

public

1648168319387

dadonk

The New York Times: "The [DOJ] investigation, which began as a tax inquiry under the Obama administration, widened in 2018 to include possible criminal violations of tax laws, as well as foreign lobbying and money laundering rules, according to the people familiar with the inquiry." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/u...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 60.42201052547165, "platformFee": 3.4528826616819575, "liquidityFee": 20.71729597009175}

0

1675497992364

620.713737229034

dadonk

1675498004061

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6PYzyjuxUZjEr4q63s5Ozxgkd9Rti-RfjPTsV=s96-c

57

0

7

52

[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856952}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501163}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-...

["politics-default", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1672623548698

1675498000087

0.01

TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8

what-will-be-the-most-download-app

1448.005875814364

What will be the most download app of 2022?

1672549140000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.654479034394921

True

play

28113c6212e0

public

1648168763700

Duncn

What will be the globally most-download app of 2022? I will default to a list published by Forbes if possible (e.g., https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2021/12/27/top-10-most-downloaded-apps-and-games-of-2021-tiktok-telegram-big-winners/ ). Mar 29, 5:59pm: If duplicate answers are submitted, the first submitted...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5321407599516897, "platformFee": 0.13303518998792244, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673476736249

920

Duncn

1672541464090

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1d7989d3bd5f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648168763903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...

3

18

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449249}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1670970785757}]

["technology-default", "tiktok"]

1672541463971

1648470190363

{"28113c6212e0": 100}

True

0.11702674079411171

2VjCMXs9jLVOFuHhVHy6

{"NO": 120.85813740850723, "YES": 959.5704150560382}

0

will-any-supreme-court-justice-othe

1350.7807845333632

Will any Supreme Court justice other than Breyer die or announce retirement before November 2022?

1667275140000

VrjGEWp4UjapH2zsKeFAzfyDdb63

cpmm-1

0

5.264112805653914

True

play

NO

public

1648168774853

Will

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will be resolved November 1. Market closes a month before. For retirement, date of announcement is used, not date of retirement. If a justice seems \"inactive\", but hasn't formally announced retirement, resolved as NO.", "type": "text"}]}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8583022711176467, "platformFee": 0.32327677727755244, "liquidityFee": 1.9396606636653146}

0

1667757283944

161.9396606636653

Will

1667274337594

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxiyYkB_OdjR0U9pH9IR_iOLYrnIZ9wVgHFboMaHQ=s96-c

15

0

2

14

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427101}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467776}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL...

["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"]

0.2

1667274337491

0.016419001268699985

0.018000221467819003

uHdLJytgMkOc5NKcCxLQ

{"NO": 43.90706476373438, "YES": 3.344934016623789}

0.19394478296952763

will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd

107.86002621306568

Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election) [CFMM market]

1663277432292

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.211392817474

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648175912775

Account deletion requested

Resolves as NO if - question will be not resolved and there are three weeks with a new president - question is resolved and Dwayne Johnson in theory may still win election (even as write-in candidate or due to unfaithful electors or similar silliness) - question is resolved as YES despite that a different candidate wo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663277432292

50.24138835903065

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277442887

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

12

0

12

0.01

1663259104949

1663277441703

0.19394478296952766

VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK

which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals

109005.4792492399

Which team will win the NBA Finals 2022?

1655458618434

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615918680192353

True

basic

ff97cac2d22d

public

1648200496171

howtodowtle

Resolved according to https://www.espn.com/nba/ or a similar main sports website. If for some reason there are no 2022 NBA Finals, this is resolved to PROB at the end of 2022. (This also includes if a champion is declared without any NBA Finals being played, e. g. via an armchair decision. If any amount of actual NBA ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 500.4826624136208, "platformFee": 125.1206656034052, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655458618434

2200

howtodowtle

1655458502682

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

40

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c3462707279b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200496499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403584}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181993750}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

1655458501384

1655057830200

False

{"ff97cac2d22d": 100}

True

0.7411726832827936

RdHtZBWs0H28LiAJ5PJn

{"NO": 1.2153066365686271, "YES": 128.780513900913}

0

will-mariupol-fall-by-may

2649.437996611099

Will Mariupol fall by May?

1651355940000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

7.6488273541883744

True

play

NO

public

1648213543911

Account deletion requested

This question resolves to Yes if Russia occupies Mariupol in Ukraine by the deadline. See "Will Mariupol fall by April?" for https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-mariupol-fall-by-april Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.401399944828189, "platformFee": 1.5668999908046983, "liquidityFee": 9.401399944828189}

0

1652209061845

59.6343862392566

Accountdeletionrequested

1648213543911

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

50

0

1

0.98

1651351232153

1650995400901

0.02631264699402007

0.3164734838848351

XE21SKELSl1bLIz5r0II

{"NO": 78.88671748003937, "YES": 767.0421966699965}

0

will-the-acres-of-california-burned

662.8687343088702

Will the acres of California burned by fire this year exceed that of last year?

1669967940000

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-1

0

2.7663572639614014

True

play

NO

public

1648236192217

Nathan

Year Fires Acres Hectares Ref 2000 7,622 295,026 119,393 [25] 2001 9,458 329,126 133,193 [26] 2002 8,328 969,890 392,500 [27][28] 2003 9,116 1,020,460 412,970 [29][30][31] 2004 8,415 264,988 107,237 [32][33] 2005 7,162 222,538 90,058 [34][35] 2006 8,202 736,022 297,858 [36][37] 2007 9,0...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4684320180613115, "platformFee": 0.411405336343552, "liquidityFee": 2.4684320180613115}

0

1671400502102

182.4684320180613

NathanHelmBurger

1669957213672

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

12

0

4

11

0.5

1669957213496

1665768206857

0.05

0.4522830491699155

YAqFRCzb1sXEShRR56qC

{"NO": 69.90874315249265, "YES": 162.83602810792434}

0

will-the-percentage-of-california-i

158.70589345317342

Will the percentage of California in severe drought (level D2 or worse according to https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx )

1671581143586

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-1

0

2.83767849522464

True

play

NO

public

1648237221913

Nathan

Mar 25, 12:40pm: Graph of recent years: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/tnxc4p/graph_of_california_drought_for_use_in_manifold/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Mar 25, 9:17pm: Whoops. Meant to say: Will the percentage of California in severe droug...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2390932294879953, "platformFee": 0.20651553824799923, "liquidityFee": 1.2390932294879953}

0

1671581143586

101.23909322948799

NathanHelmBurger

1667245299165

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

4

0

4

0.45

1667245298986

1648265736900

0.26

0.5584700024064971

xUlpx3m9D7VgEx7WAq6n

{"NO": 236.97523273265858, "YES": 6.142718014553937}

1

will-tslas-stock-price-close-over-1

519

Will TSLA's stock price close over $1000 in March 2022?

1648710000000

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-1

0

7.084124064334077

True

play

YES

public

1648237898325

taeyeon

Resolves 'YES' if TSLA's stock price is over $1000 after market close on 2022/03/31 ignoring after hours trading.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.498226862403477, "platformFee": 0.9163711437339129, "liquidityFee": 5.498226862403477}

0

1648775483117

25.49822686240347

taeyeon

1648237898325

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

18

0

1

0.5

0.9799179656650032

ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq

what-will-granfran-and-galiebers-ho

439.17921199683065

What will Granfran and Galieber's house in Breckenridge be named?

4102473540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1648239150766

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The winner is whatever name sticks!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: We seem to be defaulting to \"breckenhaus\" most often but nothing has exactly stuck yet.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.05406502502977617, "platformFee": 0.013516256257444043, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1020.0000000000006

dreev

1710457003785

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5072072141e1", "prob": 0.007503823294707886, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03796179724165471, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.0210322316325975, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239151020, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

11

8

[{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904791}]

["naming-suggestions"]

0.11421153845382717

1710456990295

1692569702581

True

0.5001212728640488

qgUdRkAwQblLP7rXMBWW

{"NO": 10.995475113122172, "YES": 9.194083588770498}

0.5447322636767831

will-rex-return-to-austin-in-2023

1

Will Rex return to Austin in 2023?

1648882740000

80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1648245807085

Rex Salisbury

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.02714932126696833, "platformFee": 0.004524886877828055, "liquidityFee": 0.02714932126696833}

0

10.027149321266968

RexSalisbury

1648245807085

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GguSPe7uqPA_sUt-m1cnsufcTV3grPFZqGZEY7yTdc=s96-c

1

0

1

2

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547944}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1702947542361}]

["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

0.46981121346774135

8lw9VL3mCJyMMlBgS8pi

{"NO": 2.1852661166223086, "YES": 68.54787276549386}

0

will-kerbal-space-program-2-have-a

90

Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have a full release in 2022?

1650925920000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

9.88116364036966

True

play

NO

public

1648247621565

DAL59

Will KSP 2 fully release, not including public betas or test copies for youtubers, by the end of 2022?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5489170454217217, "platformFee": 0.09148617423695363, "liquidityFee": 0.5489170454217217}

0

1669241958773

10.548917045421721

DAL59

1648247621565

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

4

0

1

5

0.5

0.027472924408904132

0.19609906280646644

enTK2Edy7WksGii2r7WM

{"NO": 52.647332473037835, "YES": 1761.9000316115164}

0

will-this-manifold-prediction-marke

1677

Will this Manifold prediction market get more than 100 points on hacker news thus proving to all the world the ascendency of Manifold as the premier prediction market for predictions about Manifold (and probably other things too)?

1648250014875

80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2

cpmm-1

0

5.497124666227431

True

play

NO

public

1648248002559

Rex Salisbury

This market resolves to YES if by market close the hacker news post of this market has accumulated more than 1,000 points. Mar 25, 3:40pm: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30807685 Mar 25, 3:45pm: *has accumulated more than 100 points is the correct resolution criteria.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.333458391768584, "platformFee": 0.3889097319614307, "liquidityFee": 2.333458391768584}

0

1648250014875

102.33345839176857

RexSalisbury

1648248002559

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GguSPe7uqPA_sUt-m1cnsufcTV3grPFZqGZEY7yTdc=s96-c

5

0

0.2

1648249533003

0.0072362572678435835

0.5088361382817442

ZlMXTpKeNKcbnjhvZBKa

{"NO": 932.7534003652434, "YES": 108.50160700978114}

1

will-i-pass-my-usmle-step-1-exam-on

655

Will I pass my USMLE step 1 exam on April 1, 2022?

1649871201364

nTVK2JXOQNRT5Txun09XZ2JNBAh1

cpmm-1

0

1.5300139165383466

True

play

YES

public

1648270634589

Alex Chen

This market resolves to "yes" after my score report returns (est. 4/22/2022)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.185056188475673, "platformFee": 1.030842698079279, "liquidityFee": 6.185056188475673}

0

1649871201364

306.1850561884757

AlexChen

1648270634589

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhQSuUF3XRvOW432MWMOSg93YM4m9-T8oW9LgW-qWc=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1648506800127

0.8990509803189773

0.3415870404219555

m1p8tHech3pIwYh3WCor

{"NO": 30.402751107350483, "YES": 1195.334732660063}

0

will-the-total-combined-seeding-of

1124

Will the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four be 20 or more?

1648422923010

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

4.384758932997895

True

play

NO

public

1648298708781

David Glidden

Resolves YES if the combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four NCAA men’s basketball teams equals 20 or higher. For example, if the teams are #2 Duke, #2 Villanova, #1 Kansas, and #15 St. Peter’s, the combined seed total equals 20 and this market resolves YES. Close date updated to 2022-03-27 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.315977678844434, "platformFee": 0.5526629464740724, "liquidityFee": 3.315977678844434}

0

1648422923010

103.31597767884443

dglid

1648298708781

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

6

0

0.35

0.013023661543399359

0.288593058253248

JpEznB11ll2cug5Dvuh0

{"NO": 42.51472134386745, "YES": 1119.0322132999593}

0

will-the-total-combined-seeding-of-d62fdb320dca

1238

Will the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four be the highest ever?

1648422909885

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

4.31166652798819

True

play

NO

public

1648299282987

David Glidden

Resolves YES if the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four NCAA men’s basketball teams equals 27 of more, breaking the 2011 record of 26 when #8 Butler, #11 VCU, #4 Kentucky, and #3 UConn made the Final Four. This year has the potential to break that record with #15 St. Peter’s vs. #8 UNC, #4 Arkansas vs #2 Duk...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.562923798574103, "platformFee": 0.7604872997623507, "liquidityFee": 4.562923798574103}

0

1648422909885

104.5629237985741

dglid

1648299282987

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

8

0

0.3

0.015178265827613977

0.40711789952661737

l1tI82MtyaQ3MBWFxqgc

{"NO": 57.75657244421422, "YES": 2485.773503598331}

0

will-supreme-court-justice-clarence

4143.793485953716

Will Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas be impeached by July 31 2022

1659329940000

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

2.5346443166582

True

play

NO

public

1648311515905

Scott Owens

Resolved dependent on if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Justice Clarence Thomas. The market will not resolve dependent on the outcome of impeachment trial just weather or not Articles of impeachment pass the house. Mar 27, 11:19am: For context: there have been calls for his impeachment in regards t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.751454578072597, "platformFee": 3.577406426558437, "liquidityFee": 21.46443855935063}

0

1659344288372

213.72423724287063

ScottOwens

1659229834000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

44

0

1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503125}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428734}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL...

["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"]

0.45

1659229833918

1648834075522

0.01570425447134718

0.5105605706367002

vGKbQlKntfxpYcwbIe14

{"NO": 205.52828498262176, "YES": 57.61302372133999}

1

did-taylor-hawkins-the-drummer-of-t

261

Did Taylor Hawkins, the drummer of the Foo Fighters die of drug related causes?

1648452964128

VWmPi3Ag4vSOHUKCIN86vbDkA7C2

cpmm-1

0

2.832734475251003

True

play

YES

public

1648312056769

Chris Veenboer

On March 25, 2022, the Foo Fighters' official social media accounts announced that Hawkins, at age 50, with the cause of death being unconfirmed. He was reportedly found unresponsive in his hotel room at the Casa Medina hotel in Bogotá, Colombia The band was on tour in South America at the time of the announcement and ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.709081535990973, "platformFee": 0.6181802559984956, "liquidityFee": 3.709081535990973}

0

1648452964128

103.70908153599098

ChrisVeenboer

1648312056769

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqllhgldLly9aTwT2PMo_4RmcKEGinFk1pCL68eQ=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1648373833683

0.7881956845433886

HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie

of-the-purported-atmospheric-biosig

645

Of the purported atmospheric biosignatures that the James Webb Space Telescope will find amongst exoplanets over the next ~1 year, which one will NASA say is the most promising?

1648417369842

Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.68972631791806

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648319151392

Hamish Todd

In the next year, JWST will be looking at the atmospheres of various planets. There will have been a few definitive detections of gases, and we'll be talking about whether they indicate the presence of life. They'll be much debated. Suppose we find O2. Almost all the O2 in earth's atmosphere is produced by our plants p...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648417369842

440

HamishTodd

1648319151392

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c0fca66d1c76", "prob": 0.48674959437533805, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.56179347496602, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.31460223082528, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319151590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526551}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917920}]

["science-default", "space"]

False

True

0.8920887381741262

jo5tBWRoH7CM4VWiA9kD

{"NO": 79.58703620968264, "YES": 110.98728252713421}

0.855658825690379

will-i-call-insurance-about-hrt-and

289

Will I call insurance about HRT and schedule blood draw testing by 4/2/22

1649454877062

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-1

0

6.865125747729284

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648322894202

April

Resolves YES if I call insurance to make sure it covers hormone testing and then, assuming it does, schedule a blood draw, both by 11:59pm Pacific on 4/2. Resolves NO if I fail to do so due to procrastination / phone call anxiety. Resolves N/A if there’s some other unexpected obstacle. I have been putting this off f...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.741473330125416, "platformFee": 0.623578888354236, "liquidityFee": 3.741473330125416}

0

1649454877062

103.74147333012542

April

1648322894202

0

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

10

0

0.9

1649454871270

0.8539285633007379

0.4650605028261002

PdM0X6ibaDGOj0wAtVBf

{"NO": 33.587621367649334, "YES": 679.7765401166394}

1

will-the-post-countertheses-on-slee

1563.613142076948

Will the post "Counter-theses on Sleep" by Natália Mendonça be curated on LessWrong before April 11th?

1648950189346

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

0

3.225204510194619

True

play

YES

public

1648331579886

Matthew Barnett

This market resolves to YES if the following post is "curated" on LessWrong before April 11th Eastern Time, and resolves to NO otherwise. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbcmACvB6DqYXYidL/counter-theses-on-sleep For a post to be curated, an administrator on LessWrong must think that the post is one of the best 2-3 p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.250404232662028, "platformFee": 2.8750673721103377, "liquidityFee": 17.250404232662028}

0

1648950189346

116.59092835963584

MatthewBarnett

1648331579886

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

8

0

0.5

0.0411862381868545

0.4894861837837587

YQa9UHqmmdLXVg3U970q

{"NO": 296.43147829353404, "YES": 4307.413454636059}

1

will-adam-face-enough-social-conseq

4694

Will Adam face enough social consequences for dishonorable resolution?

1648402598451

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

0.6388172420968536

True

basic

YES

public

1648341203210

Gurkenglas

https://manifold.markets/Adam/will-this-market-have-m10000-invest-c5cfee65e218 Manifold discord: ADAM: Let the chaos commence! ADAM: I've made the argument here that people are too trusting of market creators on manifold (...) jbeshir: The market creator wasn't that random, anyways, they had an associated Discord acco...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 50.738242505938544, "platformFee": 8.456373750989757, "liquidityFee": 50.738242505938544}

0

1648402598451

1050.7382425059384

Gurkenglas

1648341203210

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

11

0

0.5

1648402784299

0.5665854564184398

0.21983413138009444

9KF0itUy6egaox4Gw5ta

{"NO": 123.1892327823173, "YES": 581.7421069623582}

0

will-either-russia-or-the-us-break

523.7426118608221

Will either Russia or the US break off diplomatic relations with the other during 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.872909993880576

True

play

NO

public

1648373859555

Keepcalmandchill

Resolves Yes if either country expels the ambassador of the other during 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.4175474380100876, "platformFee": 0.569591239668348, "liquidityFee": 3.4175474380100876}

0

1672540636665

203.4175474380101

Keepcalmandchill

1672484942299

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

14

0

1

12

0.5

1672484942189

0.06

0.8061116307478801

YVNxMwpBza6llkn99Liv

{"NO": 2280.271093609754, "YES": 42.505081468952085}

1

will-manifold-allow-links-to-be-emb

7280.697737844439

Will Manifold allow links to be embedded before 2024?

1680417985423

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

6.125374952631028

True

play

YES

public

1648374029255

Keepcalmandchill

This market resolves Yes if link embedding, i.e. adding a link into any string of characters, is enabled in Manifold Markets by 2024.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.911415000050833, "platformFee": 0.6519025000084722, "liquidityFee": 3.911415000050833}

0

1680417985423

142.97587877584084

Keepcalmandchill

1680413246389

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

0

15

0

12

0.5

1680413246239

1680378002229

1

0.24779324491947505

rFDmThFTmkd9xh7zTJ7H

{"NO": 127.44438171496188, "YES": 2666.0846179905393}

0

will-australia-host-or-cohost-the-2

2757.170969061527

Will Australia host or co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?

1696516427749

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0.10964184034311454

2.386488005378162

True

play

NO

public

1648374313206

Keepcalmandchill

Australia is co-hosting the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup with New Zealand and the 2032 Olympics will be held in Brisbane. A bid for the 2030 World Cup is believed to be in the works, with the decision on the host to be made during 2024. This question resolves to Yes if any city in Australia hosts a game as part of the 2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.17978550565573, "platformFee": 0.4692419641952802, "liquidityFee": 2.815451785171681}

0

1696516427749

336.4030815957641

Keepcalmandchill

1696516396384

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

21

0

14

[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1671042707281}, {"name": "2030 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2030-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m4QAlVksIksvj5iN1Tk4", "createdTime": 1671042570111}, {"n...

["australia", "2030-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "sports-default"]

0.15195740394151364

0.5

1696434532555

1696516394656

0.02

0.30576565285688506

FRSreTU3keEEXXZWeDB2

{"NO": 151.87055329832862, "YES": 50.87683796265392}

0

will-20m-or-more-viewers-watch-the

225

Will 20M or more viewers watch the Duke 2022 Final Four basketball game?

1648958340000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.2203262265115375

True

play

NO

public

1648383190968

David Glidden

Resolves YES if the average viewership reported for the 2022 men’s basketball tournament Final Four semi-final game on Saturday, April 2nd between Duke and either UNC or St. Peter’s is 20 million or greater according to Nielsen. Legendary Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski plays for his last chance at a title while...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.402863797601328, "platformFee": 0.7338106329335546, "liquidityFee": 4.402863797601328}

0

1649208438548

104.40286379760131

dglid

1648383190968

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

6

0

1

0.3

1648954610094

0.5679838843829154

3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd

what-goverment-will-form-after-the

989.8121046538241

What goverment will form after the next UK general election?

1720133940000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

981097c555c7

public

1648387698996

Tetra

Valid options: * [Party] majority * [Party] minority * [Party A]/.../[Party Z] coalition

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4454647656589828, "platformFee": 0.4454647656589828, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720166869312

1000

Tetraspace

1720133940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

19

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6ea52e531f3e", "prob": 6.721797890334146e-06, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.001168784902842579, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 173.87863568277922, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": ...

4

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468234}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031758386}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "g...

["politics-default", "uk-politics", "us-politics"]

1716070858409

1714641594561

False

{"981097c555c7": 100}

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

True

0.3096536200772973

JcHWdAyv55YNH62JfVex

{"NO": 1018.716135284966, "YES": 929.5110515333502}

0.32957687069316804

if-boris-johnson-is-the-leader-of-t

1290.9389675637378

If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?

1720166132338

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

9.56751842982468

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1648388116424

Tetra

This resolves N/A if Boris Johnson is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a ...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.221529689224868, "platformFee": 0.8168447724340967, "liquidityFee": 3.77126756906462}

0

1720166132338

1000

Tetraspace

1720166132338

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

34

0

26

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481235}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031754901}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

0.6

1713904528751

1720125698594

0.33

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

0.15946166390503394

XcdGM8g8Xt2vI5KxcbPG

{"NO": 394.9739767613919, "YES": 3062.3009061249695}

0

will-belarus-invade-ukraine-before

4861.429524045444

Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.4535245455208776

True

play

NO

public

1648388655505

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10423/belarussian-invasion-of-ukraine-by-june-2022/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 23.635865214299727, "platformFee": 3.9393108690499536, "liquidityFee": 23.635865214299727}

0

1654101273139

523.5841633482689

MetaculusBot

1654050636600

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

22

0

1

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418597}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372182}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war",...

["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.16

1654050611826

1648845118577

False

0.023884738363531617

0.3347692295449183

xGNcRdi9NzedTpqHN7Br

{"NO": 207.50370400497877, "YES": 3425.065334855225}

0

will-russia-use-chemical-weapons-in

6402.982853312408

Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?

1672549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.2182133103751505

True

play

NO

public

1648388703635

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10448/russian-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-ua-2022/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 53.029930064810124, "platformFee": 6.788646651431915, "liquidityFee": 40.73187990859149}

0

1673881428471

540.0002470027284

MetaculusBot

1671064861407

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

39

0

4

37

[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671064910944}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671064907148}, {"name...

["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "metaculus"]

0.32

1671064861149

1662318125795

0.03

0.7094659942632701

fwWWSDTk58P3QhZVQckF

{"NO": 2.239493137788546, "YES": 153.4790397369328}

0

will-michael-conforto-sign-before-o

284

Will Michael Conforto sign before opening day?

1649307540000

UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2

cpmm-1

0

7.112716564460594

True

play

NO

public

1648391337091

CompmanJX3

Market resolves YES if free agent Micheal Conforto has signed with an MLB team before opening day.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6497613212383605, "platformFee": 0.10829355353972675, "liquidityFee": 0.6497613212383605}

0

1649417172268

50.64976132123837

CompmanJX3

1648391337091

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c

4

0

1

0.75

0.03440566709775278

0.2954201797295281

a1dex5bwF19qXJGSL7U7

{"NO": 1489.7911972967236, "YES": 1210.6077973432357}

0.340360187449707

does-god-exist

11954.59778020059

Does God exist?

4102441200000

DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32

cpmm-1

0

4.276666119016054

False

basic

public

1648393591671

Luca Petrolati

Buy "YES" if you believe the probability to be higher, buy "NO" otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": -0.039639812550293085, "week": -0.039639812550293085, "month": -0.006037581018787541}

0

{"creatorFee": 41.82595002138463, "platformFee": 21.361204320093808, "liquidityFee": 0.6838236134708598}

96.57365251252422

1460.6243366026094

LucaPetrolati

1720213130523

1.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c

5

128

2

50

[{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1673890892295}, {"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 166225550218...

["philosophy", "religion", "no-resolution", "jskfs-blocked-markets", "nonpredictive"]

0.13618563925170468

0.01

False

True

1720213127214

1719083983495

False

88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3

which-team-will-win-the-prometheus

108745

Which team will win the Prometheus Science Bowl tournament?

1648422158398

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615801222738687

True

basic

6608348eb3bd

public

1648398992565

Devansh

https://prometheus.science/schedule I will choose the answer by the team that is on the First Place section of that form at midnight PDT on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1857.101030495024, "platformFee": 464.275257623756, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648422158398

4080.0000000000014

Devansh

1648398992565

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

88

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5f951e34caa4", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648398992749, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...

[{"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457422}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012913}]

["science-bowl", "sports-default"]

1648422004497

False

{"6608348eb3bd": 100}

True

lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw

what-two-teams-will-represent-the-f

2054

What two teams will represent the finals bracket of Prometheus Science Bowl?

1648423224186

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.648199546066181

True

play

e5c2004dbce8

public

1648406892677

Devansh

This market will resolve based on the teams in the finals bracket of Prometheus Science Bowl after the semifinals match has concluded. All valid answers MUST be in the form (A,B) where A and B are the two teams that have made it to finals.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 16.846843730139867, "platformFee": 4.211710932534967, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648423224186

420

Devansh

1648406892677

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "46a5e03ee9cf", "prob": 0.0009168290087273464, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0024996212421480365, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.7238770731621553, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648406892967, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

[{"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457656}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012886}]

["science-bowl", "sports-default"]

False

{"e5c2004dbce8": 100}

True

0.08237388486385999

WefViJlgS3K9ASSz2lFD

{"NO": 974.8792342600891, "YES": 1009.7445905239842}

0.07975645592456049

will-roman-empire-produce-more-than

544.4237109976431

Will Roman Empire produce more than 10% of world GDP in 2100?

4134049140000

iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2

cpmm-1

0

10.34123324162033

False

basic

public

1648418745131

JuJumper

Mar 29, 11:14pm: an entity called Roman Empire, which is a sovereign state, or as close to sovereign state as possible in year 2100, produces more than 10% of Earth GDP according to the official sources (whatever they are at the time).

BINARY

{"day": -9.71445146547012e-17, "week": -9.71445146547012e-17, "month": -9.71445146547012e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.37533500759323335, "platformFee": 0.058972537637667764, "liquidityFee": 0.3538352258260065}

0

1000

JuJumper

1709810170404

0

https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e

29

0

23

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490580}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571238}]

["politics-default", "economics-default"]

0.02

1709810170257

1648684389148

4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF

what-will-i-do-during-my-week-in-ne

337

What will I do during my week in New York?

1649185200000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.753270855322077

True

play

MKT

public

1648432624498

Em ✨

So many things could happen. I'm taking suggestions. And warnings.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.999999999999998, "platformFee": 1.7499999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649207185179

719.9999999999998

hamnox

1648432624498

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "89c408abff7e", "prob": 0.007924697760832622, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.050124057277805535, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.274919343814523, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648432624674, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

1648864294080

{"8308708f2df2": 3.9501999812870805, "a9ff61c9d36c": 90.08810028733723, "aae2c301cb9c": 5.96169973137569}

True

0.663691774000603

jgu5VO1EzsE5w0Ks43aa

{"NO": 3.0296130184653833, "YES": 521.559917073418}

0

will-chris-rock-charge-will-smith-w

937

Will Chris Rock charge Will Smith with physical assault before May 1st?

1651377540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

5.835152961036136

True

play

NO

public

1648436817535

David Glidden

Resolves YES if Chris Rock charges Will Smith with physical assault prior to May 1st, 2022 in response to Will Smith slapping Chris Rock at the 2022 Oscars. Mar 28, 6:47am: specifically, will he press charges. (Authorities would be the ones doing the charging.)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.7845652485037147, "platformFee": 0.6307608747506191, "liquidityFee": 3.7845652485037147}

0

1651400776012

103.78456524850372

dglid

1648436817535

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

18

0

1

0.75

1648455582790

0.011333439762162313

0.14589100480911585

zkXOsd6QL1611lA13NB5

{"NO": 76.2270606419795, "YES": 1304.243640145918}

0

will-will-smith-be-arrested-before

2209

Will Will Smith be arrested before May 1st for slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars?

1651377540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

5.830897471637218

True

play

NO

public

1648436988039

David Glidden

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.613280273834762, "platformFee": 1.2688800456391272, "liquidityFee": 7.613280273834762}

0

1651400745674

107.61328027383475

dglid

1648436988039

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

23

0

1

0.15

1651363431972

0.009884428318965185

0.06232344764498867

wiUbtFeU6isK9xdnadCr

{"NO": 256.653587448181, "YES": 694.60473639952}

0

will-will-smith-attend-the-2023-osc

1540.20482652356

Will Will Smith attend the 2023 Oscars in person?

1678647600000

clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2

cpmm-1

0

5.42295860817208

True

play

NO

public

1648446285219

Raven Kopelman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-12 12:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6205689629801279, "platformFee": 0.10342816049668799, "liquidityFee": 0.6205689629801279}

0

1679066482055

280.4993731649713

RavenKopelman

1678646115633

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg55dHNRTFGTLkKUIqZ8LYwnKDlljtkFxJmMgu4iA=s96-c

24

0

2

13

[{"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1666378528600}]

["oscars-2023"]

0.1

1678646115529

1649472435815

0.02

0.4995778047130686

gCfkRshnSUf4lnERXBPQ

{"NO": 85.06355142298693, "YES": 119.91803278688525}

0.41457150270560045

will-smith-will-be-higher-than-ukra

20

Will Smith will be higher than Ukraine on Google Trends on April 1st

1648453755302

oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3

cpmm-1

0

2.7677847003055867

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648453342897

hawkebia

Will resolve based on the earliest April 1st data point on this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=IN&q=will%20smith,ukraine Mar 28, 1:17pm: Sorry, Resolved based on worldwide trends link instead: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=will%20smith,ukraine

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246}

0

1648453755302

100.49180327868852

hawkebia

1648453342897

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498886}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

0.41457150270560045

0.4452725784329357

74LuwLryRXsPc4dfTFvp

{"NO": 42.51439118869092, "YES": 142.63973682508257}

1

will-smith-will-be-higher-than-ukra-5c12c6f95439

690.301169283739

Will Smith will be higher than Ukraine on Google Trends on April 1st

1648708260000

oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3

cpmm-1

0

3.6742267967814533

True

play

YES

public

1648453901066

hawkebia

Will resolve based on the earliest April 1st data point on this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=will%20smith,ukraine Mar 28: Currently at [Will Smith: 26, Unkraine: 3] Mar 29: [Will Smith: 16, Ukraine: 2] Mar 31: Increasing granularity: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=no...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.047547575959243, "platformFee": 1.8412579293265405, "liquidityFee": 11.047547575959243}

0

1648786408498

60.72972367560481

hawkebia

1648453901066

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c

26

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471587}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1648568849899

0.19305666158105475

0.05060711721826286

hEv1A3v4IYljTXSVEf3f

{"NO": 96.34017957917436, "YES": 429.789961539179}

0

will-the-academy-strip-will-smith-o

588.5022870176557

Will the Academy strip Will Smith of his Best Actor Oscar by May 1st for slapping Chris Rock?

1651377540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

9.940780968787852

True

play

NO

public

1648466311131

David Glidden

https://nypost.com/2022/03/28/could-will-smith-lose-his-oscar-over-chris-rock-slap/amp/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9058869516455712, "platformFee": 0.3176478252742619, "liquidityFee": 1.9058869516455712}

0

1651400734946

101.8552124016922

dglid

1648466311131

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

15

0

1

0.05

1648497565089

0.011807511023802347

0.4

jDQniK5o09H4doDTFNiw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.4

will-tiger-woods-play-in-the-2022-m

0

Will Tiger Woods play in the 2022 Masters?

1648613518818

y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2

cpmm-1

0

2.888113252333106

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648478851393

Nathan Braun

Resolves to YES if Tiger plays the first round of the Masters on 4/7/2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648613518818

100

NathanBraun

1648478851393

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh9zR53v96E8a6jPfvilnDMeQP9Nmgrj4o7dxx1VFg=s96-c

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406555}]

["sports-default"]

0.4

0.7539790230994395

3S8XMZeyknkmQm3hPYI8

{"NO": 1061.9487861397454, "YES": 972.1377507405771}

0.7699999999999997

a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c

611.4417451689374

A market for the public impact of charities exists by 2025

1727852340000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0.2164886150320671

9.605519497615745

False

basic

public

1648485906269

Sinclair Chen

An impact certificate represents the total public good that an organization creates. Slices of this impact certificate may be distributed to funders and employees in a similar manner to how stocks are distributed in private-good startups and companies currently. Regardless, this question asks if a secondary market for ...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.634009733276066, "platformFee": 0.5174130203249702, "liquidityFee": 3.1044781219498208}

0

1000

Sinclair

1699719014401

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

27

0

23

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589489}]

["effective-altruism"]

0.13358154688047905

0.5

1699719013159

1686341039021

5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n

which-five-organizations-will-have

391.2765329471314

Which five organizations will have the highest public impact on Jan 1, 2025, if a market for impact exist?

1733043600000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1648486246203

Sinclair Chen

If https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c resolves to yes, which organizations will be the most valuable? This will resolve to the top 5 orgs in the impact market, proportional to their valuations Close date updated to 2024-12-01 1:00 am Apr 12, 7:40pm: #7 will not be selected as an an...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1641266795629682, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Sinclair

1717601255897

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3729c9d0284a", "prob": 0.07355462243799579, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.025632476462523, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 138.87157467400283, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486246356, "probChanges": {"day": -0.936295441...

9

0.12950071635510396

1717601252691

1684935173122

True

0.4851302002546441

jpaXi8CQRA9j8rYgB0aa

{"NO": 2910.00974763241, "YES": 35.63523362118708}

1

will-the-supreme-court-uphold-the-n

5033.074719312029

Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?

1683829405494

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

2.6657077591622453

True

play

YES

public

1648487179878

Tetra

The National Pork Producers Council & American Farm Bureau Federation is challenging California's Proposition 12, which limits pork sales in the state unless the pig was raised in certain humane conditions, in the Supreme Court. Petition: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/193744/20210927102549231_NPPC%2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4407934539067314, "platformFee": 0.06105005889316212, "liquidityFee": 0.3663003533589727}

0

1683829405494

360.36630035335895

Tetraspace

1683828220509

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

23

0

18

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428583}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330744}, {"name": "Court cases", "slug": "court-cases", "userId": "LWRrU...

["law-order", "scotus", "court-cases"]

0.5

1683828220395

1683389564792

0.99

0.5995000409629188

VFUljkx5oWarbFgGdJ2p

{"NO": 46.530050068876534, "YES": 1447.0671198649147}

0

will-the-ukraine-control-kherson-on

3976.940115319216

Will the Ukraine control Kherson on June 1st?

1654153140000

AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2

cpmm-1

0

2.080328185698006

True

play

NO

public

1648495861096

Lawrence

Suggested Zvi at: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/ Russia currently occupies the Ukrainian city of Kherson, however, some preliminary reports suggest that they may be losing control of it to the Ukrainian millitary: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/599799-pentagon-russ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 36.415580458887334, "platformFee": 6.069263409814559, "liquidityFee": 36.415580458887334}

0

1654262795575

336.4155804588874

Lawrence2

1654233259787

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy8YxZ09zYcT9I0yPCQMTRb_zJvMzJ5oEyLPjBxJA=s96-c

16

0

1

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662853451388}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662853449418}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w...

["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.65

1653787818155

1654233258551

False

0.0459214625658342

0.12606608010654724

i0JpkIYSZoac2TQ4WhC0

{"NO": 916.4257120245745, "YES": 910.5422852375198}

0.12677738117346096

will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio

416.9975700163057

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

1735718400000

AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2

cpmm-1

9.234575511739943e-16

10.062775383168422

False

basic

public

1648496529848

Lawrence

Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064) This question resolves yes if a territory containing 1 million or more people, currently recognize...

BINARY

{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.4624538226551635, "platformFee": 0.7052757797870312, "liquidityFee": 4.231654678722186}

0

1000

Lawrence2

1694324025411

0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy8YxZ09zYcT9I0yPCQMTRb_zJvMzJ5oEyLPjBxJA=s96-c

0

21

0

17

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929564}]

["global-macro"]

0.09738016811821912

0.1

1694324025123

1648520980164