p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM | this-market-resolves-to-the-user-wh | 291.3387584875841 | This market resolves to the user who left the most comments. | 1648461540000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.882909027364393 | True | play | 286e01741437 | public | 1647910725474 | Isaac King | Purchase a response with your username, then leave as many comments as you feel like leaving. Your comments can either be in response to your answer or to someone else's, doesn't matter. The user who left the most comments by the close date will win.
In the event that I'm unable to conclusively determine who won, such as due to the page not loading all the comments, I'll use the information available to me to make a best guess as to who probably left the most. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.715851258436342, "platformFee": 0.4289628146090855, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648511966448 | 420 | IsaacKing | 1647910725474 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "af95c9c091ce", "prob": 0.034154700794361434, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.685094792007255, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.373485024928417, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1647910725644, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.533", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6431680847318866, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "34eed6bf86d0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Martin", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'martin':1", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1647926885990, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.532", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d4e9f49f254c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "1", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1647926905436, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.532", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "468da74d15ea", "prob": 0.015255775119943337, "text": "Undox", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.35445121426058523, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.87945276464794, "textFts": "'undox':1", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1647942279381, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.532", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 2.84774468905609, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "286e01741437", "prob": 0.9502895240856953, "text": "hagi", "index": 4, "poolNo": 48.96781269617614, "userId": "7lSqhGhmrqamtVrw4vdmfRsC5RL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5615490983671347, "textFts": "'hagi':1", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1647946834957, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.533", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 11.199707873909066, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "edc3ef0640fc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Undox - please resolve to this one when i win", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'one':6 'pleas':2 'resolv':3 'undox':1 'win':9", "contractId": "lbNo5hb08rTDCjIbxrmM", "createdTime": 1648415353288, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.533", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648511966000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648415634894 | {"286e01741437": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E | if-kyiv-falls-in-2022-when-will-it | 705.3594619396844 | If Kyiv falls in 2022, when will it happen? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.703495283320418 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647910997988 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10284/if-kyiv-falls-in-2022-when-will-it-happen/
Acceptable answers: months, i.e. "March", "April", "May", etc. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4578207068609526, "platformFee": 0.36445517671523814, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754097910 | 720 | MetaculusBot | 1658616134092 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f0b7f4c2a4c1", "prob": 0.8551085144272028, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.120442175096034, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.76479016752963, "textFts": "", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1647910998244, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 11.575318845823777, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2869133c6de5", "prob": 0.026983779043273766, "text": "October", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.7189755147912676, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.925754774403945, "textFts": "'octob':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249132023, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 4.317404646923802, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "66569d7d102d", "prob": 0.026108570349380942, "text": "November", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.683973613580837, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.51330967033726, "textFts": "'novemb':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249140147, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.033", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 4.177371255900951, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "df13cf2258cc", "prob": 0.027212792849355655, "text": "December", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.5461752225093752, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.524356513534308, "textFts": "'decemb':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249146582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 3.265535141922679, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2efab52f7f77", "prob": 0.022730886703021806, "text": "September", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5546735568837843, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.847082702367068, "textFts": "'septemb':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249155648, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 3.636941872483489, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "59173551fc6f", "prob": 0.02030136264247032, "text": "August", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.46758601591073296, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.564661826041803, "textFts": "'august':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249162682, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.035", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 3.248218022795251, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0dd4b6f4721a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "June", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00016000800060005002, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.5999199979999, "textFts": "'june':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249167599, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 0.016, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5922b41bc23b", "prob": 0.020099432820923118, "text": "July", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.4605795824338055, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.45447411770599, "textFts": "'juli':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249173486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 3.215909251347699, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52e78e0c234d", "prob": 0.0012546611643716465, "text": "May", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.007115120885082947, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.663835002645924, "textFts": "'may':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249179546, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20074578629946344, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8a190d03b865", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "April", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'april':1", "contractId": "L0qfnBz0cBe8i6WKWz0E", "createdTime": 1648249184503, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.034", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673754097000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 3 | 4 | 1658616132801 | 1673754094851 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp | how-many-civilian-casualties-of-the | 559.0001999999996 | How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022? | 1651662033372 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.704385778096899 | True | play | 2e60d44464a7 | public | 1647911186476 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10283/civilian-casualties-before-may-2022/
Rounded to nearest 1,000, i.e. "6,000", "7,000", etc. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.320007999999984, "platformFee": 5.330001999999996, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651662033372 | 4579.999999999989 | MetaculusBot | 1647911186476 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "747a837e6ddf", "prob": 0.8533388145134052, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.784727521959926, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.197278809546385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647911186660, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 5.300151966672938, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0c5bb534e511", "prob": 0.03899377082830459, "text": "7 000", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.6431268304898172, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.849939031788569, "textFts": "'000':2 '7':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647952202896, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.153", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 3.19272940490907, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9e3e4dcc3e8f", "prob": 0.03968553378389093, "text": "8 000", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.6605542341317628, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.98415660001843, "textFts": "'000':2 '8':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647952213195, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.153", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 3.2493695267185814, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "926ccc0012fb", "prob": 0.00737181875248665, "text": "5,000", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.05201583206664163, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.004022007862037, "textFts": "'000':2 '5':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647989945595, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.153", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6035892912834139, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2e60d44464a7", "prob": 0.00737181875248665, "text": "6 000", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.05201583206664163, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.004022007862037, "textFts": "'000':2 '6':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993538245, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.153", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6035892912834139, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d10220da1ccd", "prob": 0.0036509711544834545, "text": "4 000", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00925533414248641, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5257781544460776, "textFts": "'000':2 '4':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993545139, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.163", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15289513003752309, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9bf0fcc924ef", "prob": 0.0036579586590853377, "text": "3 000", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00928194973648619, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.528185146408093, "textFts": "'000':2 '3':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993551432, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.148", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15318775229596815, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "17efa4ba3abb", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "9 000", "index": 7, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '9':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993560411, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c4341e905601", "prob": 0.0073788062570885335, "text": "9 000", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.052089989075739, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.007315998945449, "textFts": "'000':2 '9':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993589581, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.163", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6041614137259343, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9f4d30992dc6", "prob": 0.007392781266292298, "text": "10 000", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.05223840974759433, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.013899200163522, "textFts": "'000':2 '10':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993597430, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.605305658610975, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1d9ba28dc542", "prob": 0.0036789211728909836, "text": "11 000", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.009361949955657093, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5353922091284993, "textFts": "'000':2 '11':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1647993605829, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.153", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15406561907130317, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "32a7bb60e2d0", "prob": 0.0036859086774928655, "text": "12,000", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.00938866776147719, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5377899475978456, "textFts": "'000':2 '12':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648006943182, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.148", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15435824132974818, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d42a6ff62cc3", "prob": 0.0036928961820947488, "text": "13,000", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.009415411060702978, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5401853890793658, "textFts": "'000':2 '13':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007094509, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.014", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.15465086358819324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "815bdacfacfa", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "14,000", "index": 13, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '14':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007154452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5bab101db51f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "15,000", "index": 14, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '15':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007175252, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "da6f98013e7f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "18,000", "index": 15, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '18':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007262486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6be879d45962", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "95,000", "index": 16, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '95':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007262945, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "720bfb871885", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "38,000", "index": 17, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '38':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007263977, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f5a2add88246", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "39,000", "index": 18, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '39':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007264578, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b8e48c7e9b33", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "25,000", "index": 19, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '25':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007264871, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2c74e6c265c3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "99,000", "index": 20, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '99':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007265112, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "69ebbbfaf736", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "27,000", "index": 21, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '27':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007266194, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.012", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d047092bb0ed", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "98,000", "index": 22, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '98':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007266595, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b756ae1df480", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "35,000", "index": 23, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '35':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007267387, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d00b936e340f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "82,000", "index": 24, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '82':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007268388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.013", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e46201067e1f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "74,000", "index": 25, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '74':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007269478, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ad3b1932a522", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "89,000", "index": 26, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '89':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007270494, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.051", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be86adefbf22", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "72,000", "index": 27, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '72':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007271290, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d210e3835abd", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "22,000", "index": 28, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '22':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007272497, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.051", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cf7d6f47d62e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "76,000", "index": 29, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '76':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007273395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.051", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "065eb6366668", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "42,000", "index": 30, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '42':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007274395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f425b07a0c1b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "92,000", "index": 31, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '92':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007275473, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3e222398b2b9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "70,000", "index": 32, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '70':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007276591, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fa8c5861175d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "31,000", "index": 33, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '31':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007277444, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a62704c5123a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "73,000", "index": 34, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '73':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007277977, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9738d797274a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "60,000", "index": 35, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '60':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007278582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bab097175eb9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "29,000", "index": 36, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '29':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007279464, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e677e797ff63", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "56,000", "index": 37, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '56':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007280470, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8537bc0dbcee", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "75,000", "index": 38, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '75':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007281367, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.051", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ecdf1529985b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "81,000", "index": 39, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '81':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007282278, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f6879f3ede05", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "85,000", "index": 40, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '85':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007283701, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0fe35a2b77ba", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "49,000", "index": 41, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '49':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007284593, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f44a641a5dbb", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "43,000", "index": 42, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '43':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007287026, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.052", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0caf79ee0c74", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "16,000", "index": 43, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '16':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007591991, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.051", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d9d808427ad3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "17,000", "index": 44, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '17':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007593393, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.046", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "08a201bbaa35", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "18,000", "index": 45, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '18':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007594982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e77839e1bc5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "19,000", "index": 46, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '19':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007596381, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b72cd343f2b4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "20,000", "index": 47, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '20':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007597782, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6e5df18e0deb", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "21,000", "index": 48, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '21':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007599087, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c34f44347c14", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "22,000", "index": 49, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '22':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007600307, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d14674f8a92f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "23,000", "index": 50, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '23':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007601847, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.082", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f06055c4d2d8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "24,000", "index": 51, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '24':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007603287, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3a6be4369bab", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "25,000", "index": 52, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '25':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007604699, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c556facbd76", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "26,000", "index": 53, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '26':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007606123, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aa007b187dc7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "27,000", "index": 54, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '27':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007607088, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "268cf521b375", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "28,000", "index": 55, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '28':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007608088, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a30e925f04b4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "29,000", "index": 56, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '29':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007609739, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d93872b974ae", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "30,000", "index": 57, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '30':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007610899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5d9a2c4f59e3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "31,000", "index": 58, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '31':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007612196, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "45cb1382d21e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "32,000", "index": 59, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '32':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007613341, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.082", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0d1b522a94c3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "33,000", "index": 60, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '33':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007614748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9b8c91a6b9e8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "34,000", "index": 61, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '34':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007615888, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.083", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0089772c3dff", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "35,000", "index": 62, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '35':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007616986, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b7d80c59bb4e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "36,000", "index": 63, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '36':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007618075, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "58dc05df1a4a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "37,000", "index": 64, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '37':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007619179, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.084", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d199f87d3b0c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "38,000", "index": 65, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '38':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007621077, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a79be85dbca2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "39,000", "index": 66, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '39':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007622508, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.917", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fa2303184250", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "40,000", "index": 67, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '40':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007623688, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e1a275783561", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "41,000", "index": 68, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '41':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007625073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f3948bd02be0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "42,000", "index": 69, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '42':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007626586, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d32cc5823464", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "43,000", "index": 70, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '43':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007627849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.917", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "180d0a716aa8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "44,000", "index": 71, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '44':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007628844, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.916", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ccf6740fafbc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "45,000", "index": 72, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '45':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007630438, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "92b19c8c9511", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "46,000", "index": 73, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '46':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007631923, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b17543de6508", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "47,000", "index": 74, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '47':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007633147, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ba7c8d337087", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "48,000", "index": 75, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '48':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007634279, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6cbdcccf680f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "49,000", "index": 76, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '49':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007635158, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be6f36d15c38", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "50,000", "index": 77, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '50':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007636548, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.913", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e0027865a1d6", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "51,000", "index": 78, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '51':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007638348, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f978b74e2bad", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "52,000", "index": 79, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '52':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007639688, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.917", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4be202a53182", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "53,000", "index": 80, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '53':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007640988, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "acec163cedf5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "54,000", "index": 81, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '54':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007642652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "664953028e68", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "55,000", "index": 82, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '55':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007643998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "339299f26f73", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "56,000", "index": 83, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '56':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007645184, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "249b7ae28135", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "57,000", "index": 84, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '57':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007646382, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ea1843fa2356", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "58,000", "index": 85, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '58':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007647583, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7bb93f6a74c2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "59,000", "index": 86, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '59':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007648486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.914", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bb190e557074", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "60,000", "index": 87, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '60':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007650736, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.917", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "391efbf37d55", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "61,000", "index": 88, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '61':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007653143, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "46031188094a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "62,000", "index": 89, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '62':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007654994, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ded001439ba9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "63,000", "index": 90, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '63':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007657182, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b535885bcda9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "64,000", "index": 91, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '64':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007658649, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "41fbbc543c01", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "65,000", "index": 92, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '65':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007660072, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.721", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3608f3858d7b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "66,000", "index": 93, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '66':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007661068, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.721", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5b2b9e59b1d4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "67,000", "index": 94, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '67':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007662981, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.719", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8ee7e9c78965", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "68,000", "index": 95, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '68':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007664475, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5faae606d66", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "69,000", "index": 96, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '69':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007666137, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.719", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52e66273f620", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "70,000", "index": 97, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '70':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007667690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.721", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d5af9ac5661a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "71,000", "index": 98, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '71':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007669366, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cba85c99c3cf", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "72,000", "index": 99, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '72':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007670747, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ad55b366a4f4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "73,000", "index": 100, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '73':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007672004, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "848cddc4e202", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "74,000", "index": 101, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '74':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007673985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.719", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bd48939112ab", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "75,000", "index": 102, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '75':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007675776, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.722", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8435b45fb5e0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "76,000", "index": 103, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '76':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007677296, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.719", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2fc7fc2d758e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "77,000", "index": 104, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '77':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007679867, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "00cbb5567351", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "78,000", "index": 105, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '78':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007681594, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.663", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "728878bb084c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "79,000", "index": 106, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '79':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007683136, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.664", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dda0015fc7eb", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "80,000", "index": 107, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '80':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007684938, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.663", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8be76c499e84", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "81,000", "index": 108, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '81':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007686544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.662", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9cdd9df153f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "82,000", "index": 109, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '82':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007688391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.662", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "afc3a13bd21b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "83,000", "index": 110, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '83':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007690082, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.386", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cf4467b29428", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "84,000", "index": 111, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '84':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007690976, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bce11db8cdd6", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "85,000", "index": 112, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '85':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007692089, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "365c228bf2c2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "86,000", "index": 113, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '86':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007693046, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e64ec09b32c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "87,000", "index": 114, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '87':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007695149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.386", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e90574d518b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "88,000", "index": 115, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '88':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007696777, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.388", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "93e8a40638ae", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "89,000", "index": 116, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '89':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007698800, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3a20876eb065", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "90,000", "index": 117, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '90':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007701037, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:20.387", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9864a26359ab", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "91,000", "index": 118, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '91':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007702937, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.753", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "17c5456b0262", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "92,000", "index": 119, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '92':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007704648, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.752", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "59271bad0d76", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "93,000", "index": 120, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '93':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007706586, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "02907898e402", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "94,000", "index": 121, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '94':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007707611, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5cfb400e981d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "95,000", "index": 122, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '95':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007708694, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.747", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f1329d5eb315", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "96,000", "index": 123, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '96':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007709655, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ad3afe01e6eb", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "97,000", "index": 124, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '97':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007710568, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.747", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b228b1dc41f9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "98,000", "index": 125, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '98':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007712186, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "adecc165fd02", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "99,000", "index": 126, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '99':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007714745, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "762fc6d3d773", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "100,000", "index": 127, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '100':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648007717358, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.752", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e0f78ab9825", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "16,000", "index": 128, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '16':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008970055, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "83abd4f7162d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "17,000", "index": 129, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '17':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008971499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.747", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fd63ffe18eaa", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "18,000", "index": 130, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '18':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008972687, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.752", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6fc7b3068de", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "19,000", "index": 131, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '19':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008973747, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d1e63594f379", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "20,000", "index": 132, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '20':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008975353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.752", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bec38713b3a4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "21,000", "index": 133, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '21':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008976260, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.747", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9bd915e9f921", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "22,000", "index": 134, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '22':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008977148, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "023e344e4968", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "23,000", "index": 135, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '23':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008978395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.749", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "80559a3365ee", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "24,000", "index": 136, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '24':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008979180, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.748", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "30dc85656ed4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "25,000", "index": 137, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '25':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008980608, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.752", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0f44cd7f9b14", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "26,000", "index": 138, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '26':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008981390, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.807", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "95575b559e19", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "27,000", "index": 139, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '27':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008982293, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.806", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0b757722cd58", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "28,000", "index": 140, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '28':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008983295, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9bd4340becae", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "29,000", "index": 141, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '29':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008984971, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.807", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "300c61415ad4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "30,000", "index": 142, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '30':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008986080, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "049d9b5e8b37", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "31,000", "index": 143, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '31':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008986979, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.808", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9fb5375649ae", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "32,000", "index": 144, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '32':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008987889, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.806", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "223a65722509", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "33,000", "index": 145, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '33':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008988784, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "170ca955074b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "34,000", "index": 146, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '34':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008989711, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "76698c86beb4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "35,000", "index": 147, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '35':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008990984, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.81", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "42d5c44761a2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "36,000", "index": 148, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '36':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008992089, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.808", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5d71c2d39b20", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "37,000", "index": 149, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '37':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008993048, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.805", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1d8fa404575a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "38,000", "index": 150, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '38':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008993888, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "227364c51a44", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "39,000", "index": 151, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '39':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008994763, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8008317fe9dc", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "40,000", "index": 152, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '40':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008996050, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.809", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "19242776be47", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "41,000", "index": 153, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '41':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008996878, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.808", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4868b5a289de", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "42,000", "index": 154, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '42':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008997977, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.806", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "407738227704", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "43,000", "index": 155, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '43':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008998894, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.806", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1d8ea42b225b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "44,000", "index": 156, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '44':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648008999784, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.804", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c0ccb53a6a0f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "45,000", "index": 157, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '45':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009001377, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.806", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7811a34aa7b9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "46,000", "index": 158, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '46':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009002380, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "00e9e570695e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "47,000", "index": 159, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '47':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009003505, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "08dee4e04d3d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "48,000", "index": 160, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '48':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009004373, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.596", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5b980aa75e1e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "49,000", "index": 161, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '49':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009005473, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.595", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9686ab8b80d8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "50,000", "index": 162, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '50':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009006955, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ded1d0279e2f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "51,000", "index": 163, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '51':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009007885, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7ecd326d34db", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "52,000", "index": 164, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '52':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009009083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fd24b8ba7015", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "53,000", "index": 165, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '53':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009009966, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "48e74f51c87f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "54,000", "index": 166, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '54':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009010898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "af2d3398a0ab", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "55,000", "index": 167, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '55':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009012383, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "934e42e9089b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "56,000", "index": 168, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '56':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009013266, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2db3a623a192", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "57,000", "index": 169, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '57':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009014447, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.595", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b4ace414a2bf", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "58,000", "index": 170, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '58':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009015774, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.595", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5102e1903bde", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "59,000", "index": 171, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '59':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009016673, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.609", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f4048a2355fa", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "60,000", "index": 172, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '60':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009017993, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1f6b3974da00", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "61,000", "index": 173, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '61':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009018902, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "77bea539a2c7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "62,000", "index": 174, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '62':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009020178, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bdded1aa16f3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "63,000", "index": 175, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '63':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009021087, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.608", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a8ecb2c51946", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "64,000", "index": 176, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '64':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009022189, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3baed25d3977", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "65,000", "index": 177, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '65':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009023590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.596", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b2e86643549e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "66,000", "index": 178, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '66':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009024585, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ea8a2cc799b8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "67,000", "index": 179, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '67':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009025699, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a97613e228ea", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "68,000", "index": 180, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '68':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009026683, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a4fb89ce0f2e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "69,000", "index": 181, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '69':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009027686, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.889", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a3227f5d5fc7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "70,000", "index": 182, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '70':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009029073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.889", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e554dbc51a5d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "71,000", "index": 183, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '71':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009030168, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.889", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fb1ab77ad861", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "72,000", "index": 184, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '72':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009031462, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.889", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4528c2b6cd42", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "73,000", "index": 185, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '73':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009032565, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "860c52707cf1", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "74,000", "index": 186, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '74':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009033986, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "25a2ffcd0c1d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "75,000", "index": 187, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '75':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009035083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.889", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "04390d4f2fe2", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "76,000", "index": 188, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '76':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009036191, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c393efc4101b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "77,000", "index": 189, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '77':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009037569, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.884", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0c925b9671b5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "78,000", "index": 190, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '78':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009038849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1239fbba7050", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "79,000", "index": 191, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '79':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009040274, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f93f7dcf29a5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "80,000", "index": 192, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '80':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009041280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.892", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b2ecd4b3d44e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "81,000", "index": 193, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '81':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009042696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "88dbcd861082", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "82,000", "index": 194, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '82':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009043985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "487cd8e497b9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "83,000", "index": 195, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '83':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009048645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "50973b20609c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "84,000", "index": 196, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '84':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009051003, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a90ab363c2b9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "85,000", "index": 197, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '85':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009052193, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1da519c871da", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "86,000", "index": 198, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '86':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009053270, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5349ca336d8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "87,000", "index": 199, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '87':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009054190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.571", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7ab32d0445a8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "88,000", "index": 200, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '88':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009055696, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.872", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1590fd142e06", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "89,000", "index": 201, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '89':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009057084, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.569", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5bcb8e69d0d3", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "90,000", "index": 202, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '90':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009057980, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.57", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1ec6dea13b15", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "91,000", "index": 203, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '91':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009059188, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.894", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "32dd18efa0d5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "92,000", "index": 204, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '92':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009060766, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.893", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5d78c0e2c621", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "93,000", "index": 205, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '93':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009061969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.571", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "99aabfec1ea0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "94,000", "index": 206, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '94':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009063575, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.57", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e9b5da5acf8e", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "95,000", "index": 207, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '95':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009064579, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.571", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e9b891334f99", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "96,000", "index": 208, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '96':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009065852, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.569", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c578478aea19", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "97,000", "index": 209, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '97':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009066982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.57", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "04a17250c365", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "98,000", "index": 210, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '98':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009067983, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.57", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b98b48f0a43b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "99,000", "index": 211, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '99':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009069265, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.57", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6e064b79401", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "100,000", "index": 212, "poolNo": 4.1880028326069435e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.4187584032323683, "textFts": "'000':2 '100':1", "contractId": "ghaQ6VeINClkfuhuRNpp", "createdTime": 1648009070679, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.888", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651662033000, "totalLiquidity": 0.004187793427230048, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"2e60d44464a7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2878455418702778 | LruiEGGWG2xA29vCk3Ib | {"NO": 474.5479846871158, "YES": 1055.8042361792513} | 0.17 | what-proportion-of-nato-member-stat | 1130.118226499817 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | 1711994154872 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7578834627897764 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647911374256 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10285/-nato-states-to-increase-spending-25/
Resolves PROB rounded to nearest whole percentage. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.016260305479009363} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6112608929210135, "platformFee": 0.1018768154868356, "liquidityFee": 0.6112608929210135} | 0 | 1711994154872 | 600.611260892921 | MetaculusBot | 1711994154872 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0.31 | 1700317386864 | 0.17 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22567116838755152 | CxwT3tijwgfYs1pjG0p6 | {"NO": 41.13515930090083, "YES": 97.92802482420201} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-employs-someo | 107.1845878463578 | Will Manifold Markets employs someone, any role, who at the time of employment offer is on the Leaderboard from now until end of 2022. | 1672495260000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.371807672658813 | True | play | NO | public | 1647922776054 | Undox | Part time or full time, temporary or permanent, but must be more than 4 weeks work at outset (so no really short contracts to fix something up). Timed based when offer is made. Confirmed by one of the 3 founders. Doesn't resolve YET if this has already happened before market start (since give an unfair advantage to those in the know and makes the market boring).
P.S. Sorry for title massacre.
Mar 22, 3:19pm: It the founders say "YES but we won't say WHO" that is fine by me. I will resolve. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3495543423802763, "platformFee": 0.19760151884095664, "liquidityFee": 1.1856091130457398} | 0 | 1674265837784 | 61.18560911304574 | Undox | 1673884642005 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0.75 | 1672324864042 | 1673884639306 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4546103604741692 | alNAgcz7th7J3Kko3eJe | {"NO": 186.34080538216685, "YES": 50.33149593818848} | 1 | will-there-be-a-tier-1-combo-deck-i | 95 | Will there be a Tier 1 combo deck in wild after the next Hearthstone expansion? | 1651434101027 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9512907165837827 | True | play | YES | public | 1647924035614 | Bolton Bailey | The next Hearthstone expansion, "Voyage to the Sunken City", comes out April 12. I would like to know if there will be a good combo deck for me to play. A combo deck is a deck that relies on a very powerful interaction between a few cards in the deck to generate a very powerful advantage or immediate win.
This market resolves to "YES" if, in the fist TempoStorm standard meta snapshot after the expansion, at least one deck that I consider to be a Combo deck is included in Tier 1 (or Tier S, if TempoStorm decides to put a deck in that tier). A good example of a combo deck from the [current meta snapshot](https://tempostorm.com/hearthstone/meta-snapshot/standard/2022-03-14) would be the "Owl Warlock" deck.
Market closes May 12, but may resolve earlier depending on when the snapshot comes out.
Mar 22, 7:42am: Rather than the standard meta snapshot, it should be the "wild" snapshot, to reflect the title. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3984551274682313, "platformFee": 0.23307585457803853, "liquidityFee": 1.3984551274682313} | 0 | 1651434101027 | 101.39845512746824 | BoltonBailey | 1651425583800 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 1651425580443 | 0.7552638502916387 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30048649833045443 | 1ndC27R24Tp1GUe6ZOmg | {"NO": 116.89511928172408, "YES": 72.48408209977485} | 0.40924868532580255 | if-erik-demaines-group-gets-a-manif | 17 | If Erik Demaine's group gets a Manifold For Teams instance, will it have at least 5 active users in May? | 1650599940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2964642065076233 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647925293157 | Jenny | Resolves N/A if we don't have a private MM instance by the end of April 21 2022.
Resolves YES if at least 5 users make at least one bet each in May.
Resolves NO if fewer than 5 users make bets in May.
All times are EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6292843096555654, "platformFee": 0.10488071827592757, "liquidityFee": 0.6292843096555654} | 0 | 1651250274116 | 100.62928430965557 | Jenny | 1647925293157 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1647985154042 | 0.40924868532580255 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5247173776244081 | LZPtDFpQLtoQt3uFyyly | {"NO": 2648.632089098459, "YES": 0.06098828679920967} | 1 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-4d1da71ccc84 | 3205 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $930 on March 22, 2022? | 1647975600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.091169554805136 | True | play | YES | public | 1647957629199 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6648292168461128, "platformFee": 0.11080486947435214, "liquidityFee": 0.6648292168461128} | 0 | 1647980240685 | 10.664829216846112 | Predictor | 1647957629199 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425114}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1647963898746 | 0.9999791434616789 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.046586973548763594 | VnkYJbdun2nhMlGNhPED | {"NO": 959.7911506871352, "YES": 1696.3483985419537} | 0.02690303176809139 | will-the-united-states-elect-its-fi | 1559.3211070731604 | Will the United States elect it's first LGBTQ+ President in 2024 | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1647974379299 | Scott Owens | Resolved dependent on the orientation that the winning candidate self-identifies as. | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.684794419655749, "platformFee": 0.6023410700995694, "liquidityFee": 3.6140464205974157} | 0 | 1000 | ScottOwens | 1707517539160 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 0 | 46 | 0 | 30 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659503780046}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581432}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490143}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501761118}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866872}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "lgbtqia", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"] | 0.2 | 1707517538878 | 1649705491331 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7087484836950225 | YlYt66WxkeZgHgxm6Sq8 | {"NO": 831.9180967476566, "YES": 458.6472420134309} | 0.8152913959691132 | will-a-prior-or-current-congress-pe | 690.1899340068131 | Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election. | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.39662119713985 | False | play | public | 1647975842470 | Scott Owens | Some examples of what kind of office that will resolve this question:
-Member of the House of Representatives
-Senators
-Cabinet Secretaries and undersecretaries
-Directors, high ranking bureaucrats of Government Agencies
-White House officials such as Chief of Staff, Press Secretary
-United States Attorneys
-High ranking Generals
-DNC/RNC chair
-Current and Former Presidents and Vice Presidents of the United States
Mar 22, 2:12pm: Some of examples of offices that will NOT meet the requirement to resolve to yes:
-Governors
-Congress Pages/White House interns/Supreme court clerk
-State Legislatures
-Mayors | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3404066046246954, "platformFee": 0.5567344341041159, "liquidityFee": 3.3404066046246954} | 0 | 543.3404066046246 | ScottOwens | 1699586101567 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581504}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492996}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501892175}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866938}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"] | 0.7 | 1699586101429 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10438897385381693 | SHsh5A1MWbkFylW698Pm | {"NO": 139.13058392638257, "YES": 521.0628640854114} | 0 | will-pakistans-prime-minister-imran | 611.6870236728877 | Will Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan be the first PM to finish his tenure? | 1649466600000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.384281492290337 | True | play | NO | public | 1647978342575 | John Smith | This market resolves NO if Mr. Khan is ousted from his position before Aug 2023. Note: no PM of Pakistan has successfully completed their tenure.
More recently, see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/asia/pakistan-imran-khan-parliament.html
https://www.ft.com/content/870369af-b673-4ce5-bd86-d89d28be4d40
Mar 22, 1:19pm: To be clear, vote of no confidence is scheduled to happen at the end of March.
Mar 22, 7:55pm: No indicator that he is more likely to survive as far as I'm aware.
Mar 24, 12:52pm: Imran Khan refuses to step down: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/pakistan-pm-khan-says-he-wont-resign-ahead-of-no-confidence-vote
Mar 26, 11:16am: May step down on Sunday https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-to-step-down-tomorrow/videoshow/90465317.cms
Apr 4, 1:37am: Khan has dissolved parliament and Pakistan is likely heading to a fresh round of elections. This is not what I was expecting. I intend to resolve NO even if he is re elected as this would mean his original tenure ended prematurely. What do people think?
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 6:10 pm
Apr 8, 6:07pm: With no confidence vote looming, I’ve locked the bet. Let’s see what happens. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.862183664371236, "platformFee": 0.8103639440618727, "liquidityFee": 4.862183664371236} | 0 | 1649550014120 | 154.7328859577195 | JohnSmith | 1647978342575 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487247}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.1 | 1647993667480 | 0.030182667799297604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2499196113627648 | EIOalK3mRINKzCUiiC4R | {"NO": 45.807783946849035, "YES": 70.75996852888011} | 0 | will-sergey-karjakin-or-the-russian | 34 | Will Sergey Karjakin (or the Russian Chess Federation) successfully appeal Karjakin's suspension? | 1651388340000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.807325120275551 | True | play | NO | public | 1647978496621 | taeyeon | FIDE recently imposed a 6 month ban on Sergey Karjakin from any FIDE sanctioned tournament for beaching the FIDE code of ethics. Karjakin has stated he will not appeal the suspension, however, it has been reported that the RCF will.
This market will resolve YES if Karjakin's suspension is reduced or retracted from any point from now until September 21, 2022. If his suspension is not appealed or not reduced/retracted, this market will resolve NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5331580768441264, "platformFee": 0.08885967947402108, "liquidityFee": 0.5331580768441264} | 0 | 1666054550166 | 50.533158076844124 | taeyeon | 1647978496621 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969413}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 0.1774266364573437 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08435905492565232 | aNbn9YBmbozzNDeu50RH | {"NO": 780.834307980457, "YES": 4357.101039682177} | 0.016242608074358275 | will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-10126fe153d6 | 7343.5159038727315 | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist | 1734328740000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1647979258825 | Scott Owens | Dependent of whether or not that the winner self-describes as a "socialist" regardless of what polices advocated or record. "Democratic Socialist" counts as well.
Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm
Mar 23, 11:17am: for transparency: I set the close date till after the election is likely to be certified. I accidentally set it for next week,my apologies | BINARY | {"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 0.0002481757560131581} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.100409416447803, "platformFee": 1.5385125475095003, "liquidityFee": 8.909245364391591} | 0 | 1000 | ScottOwens | 1719619588752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 76 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870161}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494594}, {"name": "Scott's Presidential Markets", "slug": "scotts-presidential-markets", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "gBy1Ej5XcZXiQFdSg4zL", "createdTime": 1674501951018}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867005}, {"name": "Leftism", "slug": "leftism", "groupId": "1a422846-36a4-49d6-9e25-603804c48246", "createdTime": 1698651787174}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics", "leftism"] | 0.4 | 1719619585366 | 1647989876720 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.601488714037489 | F5G3ql09gJc5nd6TOgrr | {"NO": 535.4795864323836, "YES": 65.749603102705} | 1 | will-the-ftx-future-fund-decide-to | 4877.365305119358 | Will the FTX Future Fund decide to fund Manifold for Good? | 1652823533856 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.604852487778542 | True | play | YES | public | 1647983004874 | Austin | Resolves YES iff Manifold receives any amount of non-profit funding from FTX FF for charity prediction markets, or a clear expression of intent to send funding, by the closing of this market.
Our application is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-markets
Reasons they might fund this:
- It's a really good idea!
- Eventually, charity prediction markets could account for significant chunks of FTX FF's spending.
Reasons they might not fund this:
- They've already invested in our for-profit side
- The idea is kind of new and weird
- There isn't enough demand for this in the real world
- FTX FF wants to do more direct funding than regranting | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.237290139185856, "platformFee": 4.706215023197644, "liquidityFee": 28.237290139185856} | 0 | 1652823533856 | 128.06774148253064 | Austin | 1652824659007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652823317976 | 1652824657675 | 0.9247690341410733 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5CJCIwGU7hRhjhJ7k8zk | what-portion-of-donations-via-manif | 76 | What portion of donations via Manifold's first CPM will go to each charity? | 1648763940000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.118072084176344 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647985107874 | Gurkenglas | https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-markets
Resolves PROB according to the donation distribution. Might resolve N/A if they don't launch it as planned.
Jun 8, 9:47pm: What a strange market to find in my profile history. No answers except one that didn't understand the question, and is wrong anyway. I think since nobody gave an answer that gets a payout, I'll resolve N/A. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654717901271 | 240 | Gurkenglas | 1647985107874 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8a64d8efb635", "prob": 0.9738573407202216, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.29426992624677, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.0279884015756926, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5CJCIwGU7hRhjhJ7k8zk", "createdTime": 1647985108080, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:31.315", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654717901000, "totalLiquidity": 6.274238227146824, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6c28710a6b06", "prob": 0.026142659279778394, "text": ">25% against malaria", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0279884015756902, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.294269926246734, "textFts": "'25':1 'malaria':3", "contractId": "5CJCIwGU7hRhjhJ7k8zk", "createdTime": 1648758954835, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:31.315", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654717901000, "totalLiquidity": 6.274238227146815, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1665931643244}] | ["manifold-for-charity"] | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3302097930872496 | HJHiVKeEYZ2dmrbBB5cB | {"NO": 112.93947471853906, "YES": 87.28217380369163} | 0.3894723891459752 | will-raymond-step-on-the-grass-by-t | 10 | Will Raymond step on the grass by the end of WARP | 1647988198473 | JkqwQgiy8BeNB7iFmSd2yFhSa6L2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.060328339179426 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647988075156 | Sergey | Provided enough force | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3631516887656291, "platformFee": 0.06052528146093819, "liquidityFee": 0.3631516887656291} | 0 | 1647988198473 | 103.36315168876563 | PixelSergey | 1647988075156 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479886}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.33 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5091944156501635 | WrrBaug5wgRKD4RBE7l2 | {"NO": 199.4576677995835, "YES": 60.24467958109806} | 0.774512586329217 | will-morning-meta-start-by-900-am-o | 238 | Will morning meta start by 9:00 AM on 23.03.2022 | 1648025400000 | JkqwQgiy8BeNB7iFmSd2yFhSa6L2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7912949774322158 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647988579587 | Sergey | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680901686605 | 104.22779377956479 | PixelSergey | 1647988579587 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072276}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1680901684380 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.85 | bfzV4lL41U81W1LlF1cg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.85 | how-many-fantasy-points-will-christ | 0 | How many fantasy points will Christian McCaffrey score in the 2022 NFL regular season? | 1653003294643 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.436448474979963 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1647994549276 | David Glidden | This market resolves to the ratio of PPR fantasy points scored out of 400 points by Christian McCaffrey in the 2022 regular NFL season according to https://fantasydata.com/nfl/christian-mccaffrey-fantasy/18877.
Examples:
>=400 points = 100%
300 points = 75%
200 points = 50%
100 points = 25%
<=0 points = 0% | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653003294643 | 100 | dglid | 1653003321454 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.85 | 1653003320021 | 0.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5564158592066887 | xffgLeyl7NJAson7MlBi | {"NO": 40.791938863159075, "YES": 49.16133226354418} | 0.5 | will-existing-markets-be-converted | 891.9007336283958 | Will existing markets be converted to CFMM? | 1672538210919 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2663955591441183 | True | play | MKT | public | 1647994725342 | Martin Randall | This market resolves yes if open markets are converted from DPM to CPMM during 2022. Markets that are not converted because they are closed or closing soon do not count against this.
This market resolves no if no markets are converted in 2022.
If some but not all open markets are converted, for example based on size, popularity, pool, etc, this market resolves 50%.
Mar 24, 9:56pm: this market will still resolve yes if markets are closed during conversion for technical reasons.
Apr 5, 5:17pm: this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above.
May 19, 8:57am: I will not trade further in this market and have no current position.
Jun 9, 10:39pm: Since numeric/range markets did not exist when this market was opened, I will ignore them for the purpose of resolving this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.597620875974084, "platformFee": 0.8322785363227775, "liquidityFee": 4.993671217936664} | 0 | 1672538210919 | 45.24147621727988 | MartinRandall | 1667250144757 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 15 | 0.5 | 1667250142163 | 1655856316623 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.846045886899675 | yhkksSIBq46MC0u5G677 | {"NO": 1926.470007401764, "YES": 69.89593856607554} | 1 | will-the-mega-back-door-roth-be-leg | 3017.0135669220617 | Will the mega back door Roth be legal in 2023? | 1672583811756 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.828927159636286 | True | play | YES | public | 1647995296252 | Martin Randall | This market resolves to yes if the mega back door Roth is legal in the US for the tax year 2023.
This market resolves to no if the mega back door Roth is blocked completely, or if additional restrictions are placed on it.
This market resolves on Jan 1st, 2023 and ignores tax changes made after that date, even if they are applied to the current tax year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.655500153654736, "platformFee": 0.3291685498651271, "liquidityFee": 1.975011299190763} | 0 | 1672583811756 | 121.97501129919075 | MartinRandall | 1672561977939 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513579}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.8 | 1672561977785 | 1648759949215 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5061014911170658 | jFol4ms3gN9qo9lVhJwp | {"NO": 284.1743202881552, "YES": 42.70767471050968} | 1 | will-the-united-states-have-the-wor | 285.48049724463533 | Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? | 1654083559612 | 8gGZcrc6zkRWVhSjTFa4eAUZWHz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.038394125008485 | True | play | YES | public | 1648004829233 | Adam Siegel | Taken from INFER: https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4730140905874824, "platformFee": 0.7455023484312472, "liquidityFee": 4.4730140905874824} | 0 | 1654083559612 | 104.47301409058748 | AdamSiegel | 1654083428582 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyYNB3ca3YnHnbUlCrYvvp34Yi4ZQPFf2R82J_L=s96-c | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452811}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1654083428373 | 1654074733098 | 0.8642990393697516 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20532723577368028 | JMNAK3bqzXBgHZcJEH11 | {"NO": 945.6734354811803, "YES": 1152.6637926480282} | 0.17490450174336578 | will-a-second-us-supreme-court-just | 578.1347545309492 | Will a second U.S. Supreme Court Justice publicly announce they are retiring any time during President Biden's first term in office? | 1737439140000 | 8gGZcrc6zkRWVhSjTFa4eAUZWHz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.69740401719641 | False | basic | public | 1648005485511 | Adam Siegel | This market will resolve yes if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice makes their own public announcement they are retiring while President Biden is still in office during his first term (up until January 20, 2025.) If a Justice dies or leaves the court in some other manner than retirement, this market will resolve no. If no Justice announces their own retirement, this market will resolve as no. If President Biden retires or is no longer President due to some other circumstance before the end of his first term and a Justice has not announced their retirement by that point, this market will resolve as no. | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.313955423631285, "platformFee": 0.8556214650220182, "liquidityFee": 5.133728790132108} | 0 | 1000 | AdamSiegel | 1708347566456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyYNB3ca3YnHnbUlCrYvvp34Yi4ZQPFf2R82J_L=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427743}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480903}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856964}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330753}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "userId": "bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "createdTime": 1677554181193}] | ["politics-default", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "scotus", "supreme-court"] | 0.5 | 1708347566308 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK | why-cant-i-make-a-market-using-fire | 123 | why can't I make a market (using firefox) | 1648105140000 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.955056960160141 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648007779778 | Nathan | Mar 22, 8:56pm: tried to make yes/no and couldn't get it to work. This free-answer question worked though. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648141310252 | 320 | NathanHelmBurger | 1648007779778 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9ba743f1f25e", "prob": 0.6609822195782934, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.80510575385723, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.13533874115337, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648007780070, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.846", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648141310000, "totalLiquidity": 40.68213365060479, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c157a24571a5", "prob": 0.13880626611144156, "text": "seems like it had something to do with manually entering a date without also entering an exact time? Since selecting a date using the UI widget did work...", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.687201709249923, "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.48931003324632, "textFts": "'also':14 'date':12,22 'enter':10,15 'exact':17 'like':2 'manual':9 'seem':1 'select':20 'sinc':19 'someth':5 'time':18 'ui':25 'use':23 'widget':26 'without':13 'work':28", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648009835202, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.109", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648141310000, "totalLiquidity": 16.656751933372988, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7cbbba4c96ed", "prob": 0.044219710489787824, "text": "the universe hates you in particular", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.5218252652317437, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.89326358034532, "textFts": "'hate':3 'particular':6 'univers':2", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648010223358, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.108", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648141310000, "totalLiquidity": 7.075153678366052, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5cba6dc2ac56", "prob": 0.0763434463612929, "text": "A Firefox extension or user script interfering", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.633805074338939, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.86562087343059, "textFts": "'extens':3 'firefox':2 'interf':7 'script':6 'user':5", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648026380877, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.107", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648141310000, "totalLiquidity": 9.161213563355147, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c71d71ce396c", "prob": 0.07964835745918436, "text": "Try to restart firefox, reboot computer, update Firefox, update OS. Force refresh of cache. Log out log in.\n\n(for me Firefox works fine, maybe standard steps of returning to known state will help? If that does not help - upgrade to Linux.)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 2.811703919047418, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.489763791548754, "textFts": "'cach':14 'comput':6 'fine':23 'firefox':4,8,21 'forc':11 'help':33,38 'known':30 'linux':41 'log':15,17 'mayb':24 'os':10 'reboot':5 'refresh':12 'restart':3 'return':28 'standard':25 'state':31 'step':26 'tri':1 'updat':7,9 'upgrad':39 'work':22", "contractId": "aDpPOFsIlJRNYjIrdzMK", "createdTime": 1648027999661, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.109", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648141310000, "totalLiquidity": 9.557802895102123, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"5cba6dc2ac56": 38.131396500495214, "7cbbba4c96ed": 22.086497193793328, "c71d71ce396c": 39.78210630571146} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5018465901669832 | SpMwswD81Un1j0uU5sbl | {"NO": 73.91316553871275, "YES": 141.78886549526786} | 1 | will-steamvr-users-rise-from-about | 233.17002823995938 | Will SteamVR users rise from about 2.9% currently to above 3.5% by August 1st 2022? | 1659509940000 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7764418308745125 | True | play | YES | public | 1648009761772 | Nathan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.941279447585581, "platformFee": 0.20803145400656625, "liquidityFee": 1.2481887240393976} | 0 | 1659624247825 | 101.2481887240394 | NathanHelmBurger | 1659462427022 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411286}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449023}] | ["technology-default", "gaming"] | 0.5 | 1659462300963 | 1659462424793 | 0.34432895810600145 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10941786508144508 | Uu43CTlgWsIhaxeYwkmL | {"NO": 74.32599460670973, "YES": 1528.1695068384768} | 0 | will-httpngatecom-webshit-weekly-up | 1598.4992467512943 | Will http://n-gate.com webshit weekly update this year? | 1672664340000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.862097924818762 | True | play | NO | public | 1648011208583 | Undox | It has been a while since the last post. Resolves YES if a webshit weekly is posted this year. Will ignore other changes to the site or other content. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4443861405047596, "platformFee": 0.40739769008412663, "liquidityFee": 2.4443861405047596} | 0 | 1672740709841 | 112.44438614050476 | Undox | 1672692199072 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.25 | 1672656305608 | 1672692196304 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17152934088943816 | oNxkzFzcfYlh6eGsFr3Q | {"NO": 113.85748883509878, "YES": 960.3885163896443} | 0 | will-ukraine-officially-recognize-c | 2330.317561207532 | Will Ukraine officially recognize Crimea as Russian before June 2022? | 1654059540000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.794514058187988 | True | play | NO | public | 1648012126974 | SG |
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.342179991410653, "platformFee": 3.0570299985684417, "liquidityFee": 18.342179991410653} | 0 | 1656287929163 | 167.8516926448696 | SG | 1654056601625 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654056600353 | 1648453728656 | 0.023957670202071454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16606492442549703 | HWuq72iq1UxiTNd28DH9 | {"NO": 96.21102488635694, "YES": 342.95483829836905} | 0.05290850785310377 | will-lukashenko-lose-power-during-2 | 2106.044359871973 | Will Lukashenko lose power during 2022? | 1663277451346 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.598195808949669 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648027732678 | Account deletion requested | Is Lukashenko going to lose power as controller of Belarus?
Dying also will resolve this as yes.
Note that both collapse of Belarus, finalizing vassalization by Russia, opposition winning all will resolve as YES.
Completely losing power will cause this to resolve early, but I will wait until situation is clear (coup attempt and chaos that ends in failure does not count)
Related markets:
"Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?"
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-presiden
"Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?"
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/among-current-heads-of-state-who-wi
"Will Putin be overthrown during 2022?"
https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202
"Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?"
https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia
"Will Putin get killed by the end of 2022?"
https://manifold.markets/M/will-putin-get-killed-by-the-end-of
"Will Belarus send troops to Ukraine?"
https://manifold.markets/LucaPetrolati/will-belarus-send-troops-to-ukraine | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663277451346 | 122.62072168382656 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277461713 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 43 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479959}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 0.1 | 1663249261922 | 1663277459531 | 0.05290850785310377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5480763768536469 | NdpncaV1xXmNpAoL9tZ1 | {"NO": 211.9420641146907, "YES": 1.023087736673019} | 0 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-695945fb182f | 2916 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $1000 on March 23, 2022? | 1648062000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.929083774141056 | True | play | NO | public | 1648040040740 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3605847744310657, "platformFee": 0.22676412907184434, "liquidityFee": 1.3605847744310657} | 0 | 1648065761557 | 11.360584774431068 | Predictor | 1648040040740 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425187}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1648060528661 | 0.9960354447660503 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.050414625329889086 | ZoqRAPmJhyTzboPVZ6Gd | {"NO": 522.9393764221215, "YES": 258.078641411637} | 0 | will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili-71a34a770ba5 | 165 | Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 1000 readers by Tau Day, June 28th, 2022? | 1656478740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8157658937908825 | True | play | NO | public | 1648050288790 | Patrick Delaney | After this previous market, which blew past the goal:
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili
I honestly did not expect that goal to be reached, so I thought it would be good to put together what seems like an even less realistic goal - 1000 readers.
Here's the free code:
https://leanpub.com/probabilityforlemurs/c/6OMiYNaqgAj6_manifold
* I'm a first time author, to quote another person on Manifold, I'm basically just some jabroni.
* Like many on Manifold, I have an interest in predictions, which means Probability Theory can play a role. However I often find it difficult to deeply grok probabilistic concepts and end up making emotional decisions the vast majority of the time. "Probability for Lemurs," is my effort to explain Probability Theory from primitives with the hope of helping people internalize concepts better and make better decisions.
* I'm promoting it on Twitter, Linkedin, my social networks, etc.
* Vote NO to subsidize the market.
What's different this time, is that I actually have to go back and spend more time editing, improving and writing the book between now and Tau Day, because I have set that as a deadline for a new version to come out as well, so I won't have as much time to focus on promotion as I did during the last market, which lasted a couple weeks - however we have a longer timeframe now, so who knows? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.295913687675169, "platformFee": 0.3912278981567464, "liquidityFee": 2.3473673889404787} | 0 | 1656702956569 | 502.3473673889404 | PatrickDelaney | 1656475079306 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1656475077928 | 1648126085639 | 0.09712871611541547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg | how-will-range-markets-work-in-mani | 339 | How will "range markets" work in Manifold? | 1651388340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.752510435153312 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648056403638 | Austin | A popular request is for Manifold to natively support "range markets" aka scalar markets: markets where you predict from a continuous range of numbers, rather than a binary YES/NO or a percent from 0-100%.
See also: https://manifold.markets/Cyril/will-manifold-implement-range-marke
This market will resolve to the option that is implemented as of May 1st, 2022; if none are implemented, than the one we devs have decided to use at that time; if we haven't decided, this market resolves N/A. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652366777205 | 520 | Austin | 1651421055993 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6c5947b6fcfa", "prob": 0.08701629815264399, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.417752841862162, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.367304592101988, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056403987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.948", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 7.8314668337379585, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "50ec6cd9d9ac", "prob": 0.45027453642067167, "text": "Using CFMM, allow market creators to map 0-100% to a custom scale of their choice", "index": 1, "poolNo": 101.87864572256731, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 124.38030849772323, "textFts": "'-100':9 '0':8 'allow':3 'cfmm':2 'choic':16 'creator':5 'custom':12 'map':7 'market':4 'scale':13 'use':1", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056470836, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.948", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 112.56863410516792, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c6885bf47add", "prob": 0.046353582025913456, "text": "Using DPM, allow market creators to set up buckets (e.g. options of 10-20, 20-50, 50-200)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.7373214471202685, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.74244540561268, "textFts": "'-20':14 '-200':18 '-50':16 '10':13 '20':15 '50':17 'allow':3 'bucket':9 'creator':5 'dpm':2 'e.g':10 'market':4 'option':11 'set':7 'use':1", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056538335, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.948", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 7.880108944405287, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9f53c4126f70", "prob": 0.010850932379634701, "text": "(ante & discussion thread)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.1477450927259848, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.468144082224223, "textFts": "'ant':1 'discuss':2 'thread':3", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056698306, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.946", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4106212093525112, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "793f5641c9ca", "prob": 0.31012608661602314, "text": "Using CFMM, allow market creators to set up buckets", "index": 4, "poolNo": 27.031238179686753, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.13085280930825, "textFts": "'allow':3 'bucket':9 'cfmm':2 'creator':5 'market':4 'set':7 'use':1", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648056760694, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.947", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 40.31639126008301, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e44648045552", "prob": 0.08214338545609591, "text": "Using LS-LMSR (aka the Hanson-Othman mechanism)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.2116377044539957, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.712474227066945, "textFts": "'aka':5 'hanson':8 'hanson-othman':7 'lmsr':4 'ls':3 'ls-lmsr':2 'mechan':10 'othman':9 'use':1", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648058338611, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.947", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 7.392904691048632, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "708d25dbe8ea", "prob": 0.008806049373047572, "text": "CMMM - Constant Mean Market Maker: Uniswap CPMM generalised to more outcomes", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.07470245286604363, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.40838112995866, "textFts": "'cmmm':1 'constant':2 'cpmm':7 'generalis':8 'maker':5 'market':4 'mean':3 'outcom':11 'uniswap':6", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648070963094, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.953", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7925444435742814, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e9d7f6fa39a2", "prob": 0.004429129575969579, "text": "Moving Normal Distribution", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.026587897621298814, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.9763743470491955, "textFts": "'distribut':3 'move':1 'normal':2", "contractId": "IGSZBnUdVZxZCL19mJOg", "createdTime": 1648071228987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:10.953", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652366777000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3986216618372621, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1651421055718 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19023079573783183 | IgJJtS52snLWLT5SJJL8 | {"NO": 90.02783636008554, "YES": 2123.180465242023} | 0 | regarding-the-prescription-drug-fin | 2207.145907199133 | Regarding the prescription drug finasteride taken for hair loss: Will FDA approval be revoked by the end of 2023? | 1703998740000 | iNcIfgKc3mN3JnNuZ01Kg9Iu6U32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.983916013953475 | True | play | NO | public | 1648057724329 | Marmot | This market resolves to YES if, as of Dec 31, 2023 at 11:59 pm, the US Food and Drug Administration has revoked approval of finasteride 1 mg/day taken for androgenetic alopecia (male pattern hair loss).
Mar 26, 10:02am: A foundation has sued FDA for not responding to a petition requesting that Propecia be removed from the market:
https://www.citizen.org/litigation/post-finasteride-syndrome-foundation-v-fda/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.128125012073166, "platformFee": 0.877836423159262, "liquidityFee": 5.267018538955572} | 0 | 1704382836871 | 205.26701853895554 | marmot | 1704382837082 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1686269188752}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703990995670 | 1704382831399 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12376278611286429 | AWeiMd6tJH0g2JukEQfc | {"NO": 42.88910045215063, "YES": 217.80673218219113} | 0 | will-the-los-angeles-lakers-make-th | 651.1709834705174 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the 2022 NBA Playoffs? | 1649224662862 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.306767437513212 | True | play | NO | public | 1648064373477 | taeyeon | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Lakers make the playoffs as any seed (1st through 8th).
Starting odds taken from 538's forecast on 3/23
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/
Close date updated to 2022-04-10 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.70504336442841, "platformFee": 0.6175072274047352, "liquidityFee": 3.70504336442841} | 0 | 1649224662862 | 53.68587689188689 | taeyeon | 1648064373477 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.027060138732521707 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.505316566611268 | 14fM9m8qDbCWmPvVTE0Z | {"NO": 85.55174616167446, "YES": 31.492781826497975} | 1 | will-imperial-college-london-win-th | 55 | Will Imperial College London win the University Challenge Season 51? | 1648969140000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.421240835611745 | True | play | YES | public | 1648065923078 | taeyeon | Resolves 'YES' if Imperial College London wins season 51 of the University Challenge on April 4, 2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8189929315897686, "platformFee": 0.1364988219316281, "liquidityFee": 0.8189929315897686} | 0 | 1649108364977 | 50.81899293158977 | taeyeon | 1648065923078 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7350953186749526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp | who-will-win-the-2022-nba-mvp-award | 1237.7210747584822 | Who will win the 2022 NBA MVP Award? | 1649660340000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.664091714684815 | True | play | fb642f131fca | public | 1648066653695 | taeyeon | Resolves to the winner of the 2022 NBA Regular Season MVP Award.
Close date updated to 2022-04-10 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.14758946279544, "platformFee": 4.78689736569886, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652315863723 | 780 | taeyeon | 1652112523254 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9f84c4749ad6", "prob": 0.002521576924356804, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.012315936750868109, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.871904184358314, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066653905, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:25.97", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 0.24495318693751808, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fb642f131fca", "prob": 0.6399971514610687, "text": "Nikola Jokic", "index": 1, "poolNo": 219.42895122956972, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 123.43031107906519, "textFts": "'jokic':2 'nikola':1", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066689549, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:25.97", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 164.5727307606543, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "115b18eb7783", "prob": 0.15368422252466818, "text": "Joel Embiid", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.840391089779626, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 92.7374875833323, "textFts": "'embiid':2 'joel':1", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066709284, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:50.576", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 39.51880007777182, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1f2ffdea217e", "prob": 0.18769501835910302, "text": "Giannis Antetokounmpo", "index": 3, "poolNo": 34.02713997998818, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.26238106039744, "textFts": "'antetokounmpo':2 'gianni':1", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066718695, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:50.575", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 70.78783549543314, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "36dfac71569c", "prob": 0.0007312573080634732, "text": "Ja Morant", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.0019216533632926919, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.6259541190944806, "textFts": "'ja':1 'morant':2", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066728849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:50.577", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 0.07103642421188025, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "27c19a1c63be", "prob": 0.013504806498715662, "text": "Luka Doncic", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.21669967252457786, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.829414912322418, "textFts": "'doncic':2 'luka':1", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066734836, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:50.576", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8520877483952907, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "21eee661e1b1", "prob": 0.0018659669240240354, "text": "Stephen Curry", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.01106457336853534, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.918608255276319, "textFts": "'curri':2 'stephen':1", "contractId": "1zAz6bBbWobKkyPbLVkp", "createdTime": 1648066743282, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:50.575", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652315863000, "totalLiquidity": 0.25590403529472483, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1652112519337 | {"fb642f131fca": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7 | who-will-qualify-on-pole-position-i | 254 | Who will qualify on pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | 1648278000000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.823114985464495 | True | play | fc0ace3e63d5 | public | 1648067449017 | taeyeon | Resolves to the driver who qualifies in pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. Qualification happens on 2022/03/26 13:00 EST. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.590281101127404, "platformFee": 2.147570275281851, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648321772774 | 520 | taeyeon | 1648067449017 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b502680743e7", "prob": 0.05370442959242023, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0803708096666362, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.03660683753881, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067449184, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 4.535040721137708, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "18927cf989f4", "prob": 0.29043355523580866, "text": "Charles Leclerc", "index": 1, "poolNo": 30.555743651587218, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.65160274741416, "textFts": "'charl':1 'leclerc':2", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067474924, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.802", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 47.760184638777424, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e600847e094", "prob": 0.09323390904758255, "text": "Carlos Sainz Jr.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 3.7203921368163377, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.18346017208568, "textFts": "'carlo':1 'jr':3 'sainz':2", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067515350, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.289", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 11.602442014810274, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4f2077b3a490", "prob": 0.012790078856426313, "text": "Lewis Hamilton", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.23940007575278288, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.478238684738322, "textFts": "'hamilton':2 'lewi':1", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067530950, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 2.1032574119456604, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f9fe42717cba", "prob": 0.0032867110910561174, "text": "George Russell", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.015937795647110564, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.833224544931257, "textFts": "'georg':1 'russel':2", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067536189, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.337", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2775444921336277, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1ac5175836f3", "prob": 0.2844216783965986, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 5, "poolNo": 29.487276402922273, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.18722748564952, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067542821, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.337", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 46.771564891885106, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fc0ace3e63d5", "prob": 0.0033726381784039907, "text": "Sergio Pérez", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.016567588821642894, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.8957852771721395, "textFts": "'pérez':2 'sergio':1", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648067550484, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.337", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2848005572874481, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "69efef1e408a", "prob": 0.1682083120337422, "text": "Valtteri Bottas", "index": 7, "poolNo": 6.387559723624593, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.586543020734812, "textFts": "'botta':2 'valtteri':1", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648239810742, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.337", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 14.204257460627119, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4bbb8bbcbdc0", "prob": 0.09054868756796154, "text": "Pierre Gasly", "index": 8, "poolNo": 2.4127070639102945, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.232704688738593, "textFts": "'gasli':2 'pierr':1", "contractId": "Pq4YzM1nAVlZVa4amHR7", "createdTime": 1648239843918, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:18.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648321772000, "totalLiquidity": 7.646333616850086, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"fc0ace3e63d5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE | who-will-win-the-2022-f1-saudi-arab | 321 | Who will win the 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | 1648364400000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.79008557156379 | True | play | 2d823a2ef744 | public | 1648067873391 | taeyeon | Resolves to the driver who wins the 2022 F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. Racing starts on 2022/03/27 10:00 PDT. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.32, "platformFee": 2.08, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648405858615 | 600 | taeyeon | 1648067873391 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b98016d1c19c", "prob": 0.03669940253372675, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5730566586073208, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.041820397788397, "textFts": "", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067873544, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.559", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 2.93595220269814, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2d823a2ef744", "prob": 0.20796817427812278, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 1, "poolNo": 17.050769562239626, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.93662885304416, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067948389, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 33.27490788449965, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d905f09a0f2c", "prob": 0.177522349936143, "text": "Sergio Perez", "index": 2, "poolNo": 9.896890168855302, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.85321776073968, "textFts": "'perez':2 'sergio':1", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067955922, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.559", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 21.30268199233716, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9974a9a21f4", "prob": 0.20070169257644485, "text": "Charles Leclerc", "index": 3, "poolNo": 16.09133545168522, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.08404944476365, "textFts": "'charl':1 'leclerc':2", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067959490, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 32.11227081223117, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0165d6c3eeb9", "prob": 0.08749137564040457, "text": "Carlos Sainz Jr", "index": 4, "poolNo": 4.334603340639629, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.20860373447987, "textFts": "'carlo':1 'jr':3 'sainz':2", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067966881, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.557", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 13.99862010246473, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a5a2143aa1a8", "prob": 0.0808414439012933, "text": "George Russell", "index": 5, "poolNo": 3.835975796192617, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 43.61463383018058, "textFts": "'georg':1 'russel':2", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067970441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.596", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 12.93463102420693, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9c387671ffcd", "prob": 0.045639376990942594, "text": "Lewis Hamilton", "index": 6, "poolNo": 1.1976627744359567, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.044211094123636, "textFts": "'hamilton':2 'lewi':1", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648067976241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.598", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 5.476725238913112, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4ff4eaecdd28", "prob": 0.02348761762158512, "text": "Guanyu Zhou", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.2914134293205067, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.115695457393391, "textFts": "'guanyu':1 'zhou':2", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648068006733, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.596", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8790094097268095, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9a2fc093c66b", "prob": 0.13270503956195592, "text": "Valtteri Bottas", "index": 8, "poolNo": 4.152768286122003, "userId": "XZrFS72pN7XVROAXdyyFCSPXFdE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.140453884112183, "textFts": "'botta':2 'valtteri':1", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648239790573, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.596", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 10.616403164956473, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "db8af41ca369", "prob": 0.006943526959381102, "text": "None of the above", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.04644866141732253, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.64304238384574, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "g5qJ0VtUJGyVarRluZVE", "createdTime": 1648321857170, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.597", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648405858000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5554821567504882, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"2d823a2ef744": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv | which-driver-will-win-the-2022-f1-d | 385 | Which driver will win the 2022 F1 Drivers Championship? | 1660892340000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.737074120130433 | True | play | 71872a436041 | public | 1648068174399 | taeyeon | Resolves to the driver that wins the 2022 F1 Drivers Championship by placing first in the 2022 F1 Drivers Points Standings
Close date updated to 2022-08-18 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666054568847 | 879.9999999999999 | taeyeon | 1660835406433 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9f43ddd3965f", "prob": 0.06746500252993759, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.071488790807616, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.810653810938271, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068174602, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 3.9836477684344103, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "71872a436041", "prob": 0.5936987687637039, "text": "Max Verstappen", "index": 1, "poolNo": 146.87486902478034, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100.51467724399006, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068183805, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 121.50341581733046, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "770711338723", "prob": 0.001369539551357733, "text": "Daniel Ricciardo", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0029947588316556932, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.183695526006596, "textFts": "'daniel':1 'ricciardo':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068186960, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08086804969921853, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3e8620700c30", "prob": 0.0013830325518637207, "text": "Lando Norris", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.003039145713452076, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.194411456122811, "textFts": "'lando':1 'norri':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068190606, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.869", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08166477925290541, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dce97b2ad0dd", "prob": 0.0013965255523697082, "text": "Sebastian Vettel", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.003083750150587443, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.205075023138416, "textFts": "'sebastian':1 'vettel':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068194297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.0824615088065923, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4e2b2558881e", "prob": 0.0014100185528756958, "text": "Nicholas Latifi", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0031285710968075742, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2156869830864583, "textFts": "'latifi':2 'nichola':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068198692, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.0832582383602792, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e529239210a", "prob": 0.001423511553381683, "text": "Pierre Gasly", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.0031736075209484148, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2262480739604675, "textFts": "'gasli':2 'pierr':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068201809, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08405496791396605, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9bc090b7728f", "prob": 0.0014370045538876705, "text": "Sergio Perez", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.0032188584065774586, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2367590163114692, "textFts": "'perez':2 'sergio':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068204749, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08485169746765293, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "62eac0eef191", "prob": 0.0014504975543936584, "text": "Fernando Alonso", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0032643227516469344, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2472205138198267, "textFts": "'alonso':2 'fernando':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068209204, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08564842702133983, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "bb530e84f244", "prob": 0.21330409849890367, "text": "Charles Leclerc", "index": 9, "poolNo": 24.329539758512947, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 89.73080849418596, "textFts": "'charl':1 'leclerc':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068213073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 46.723754909283656, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "12fb0f96855a", "prob": 0.0014774835554056333, "text": "Lance Stroll", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.0033558878818377076, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.26799790794188, "textFts": "'lanc':1 'stroll':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068216217, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08724188612871359, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "42f94bd6a23c", "prob": 0.001490976555911621, "text": "Kevin Magnussen", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.003401986731821579, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2783151323824478, "textFts": "'kevin':1 'magnussen':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068220519, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08803861568240048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7d3d625a7e1c", "prob": 0.0015044695564176084, "text": "Yuki Tsunoda", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.003448295170352538, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2885855686211496, "textFts": "'tsunoda':2 'yuki':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068226589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:00.605", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08883534523608735, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c67d64747c0", "prob": 0.0015179625569235959, "text": "Alex Albon", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.0034948122624846433, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2988098437676765, "textFts": "'albon':2 'alex':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068234498, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.371", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08963207478977424, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ac5efd9a08f2", "prob": 0.0015314555574295833, "text": "Guanyu Zhou", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.0035415370857979113, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.308988571030481, "textFts": "'guanyu':1 'zhou':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068239602, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09042880434346112, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4d14cffa5b78", "prob": 0.0015449485579355712, "text": "Esteban Ocon", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.003588468730121659, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3191223501444753, "textFts": "'esteban':1 'ocon':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068243396, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.37", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09122553389714802, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2de62b9958d2", "prob": 0.023821892393320967, "text": "Lewis Hamilton", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.36859029514982083, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.104164306544371, "textFts": "'hamilton':2 'lewi':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068246348, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.37", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 2.359501722767029, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5c00c079e428", "prob": 0.0015719345589475457, "text": "Mick Schumacher", "index": 17, "poolNo": 0.0036829489007633802, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.339257397947529, "textFts": "'mick':1 'schumach':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068249450, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09281899300452175, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fd76b71920c8", "prob": 0.0015854275594535336, "text": "Carlos Sainz Jr", "index": 18, "poolNo": 0.0037304956656132367, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3492598023578846, "textFts": "'carlo':1 'jr':3 'sainz':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068253075, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.371", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09361572255820866, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8976785000bf", "prob": 0.07800303592511383, "text": "George Russell", "index": 19, "poolNo": 3.1547581445781008, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.289284925832646, "textFts": "'georg':1 'russel':2", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068255686, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 10.84613642387297, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f0d71b09afdc", "prob": 0.0016124135604655085, "text": "Valtteri Bottas", "index": 20, "poolNo": 0.003826198235256326, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.369137121517334, "textFts": "'botta':2 'valtteri':1", "contractId": "Sh304NGP5ywPUZsx6Tgv", "createdTime": 1648068260475, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.372", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666054568000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09520918166558241, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 10 | 1660835405160 | {"71872a436041": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq | which-team-will-win-the-2022-f1-con | 315.99024234236936 | Which team will win the 2022 F1 Constructors Championship? | 1660892340000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.780833668799442 | True | play | 95a4424f46e2 | public | 1648068301178 | taeyeon | Resolves to the team that wins the 2022 F1 Constructors Championship by placing first in the 2022 F1 Constructors Points Standings
Close date updated to 2022-08-18 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666558139775 | 600.0000000000001 | taeyeon | 1660835517481 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "92fc52e9b378", "prob": 0.1304075626960426, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.7033752187501148, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.695094487964976, "textFts": "", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068301353, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.344", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 9.563221264376457, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "95a4424f46e2", "prob": 0.74973096996063, "text": "Red Bull Racing", "index": 1, "poolNo": 118.39923011800765, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.5230578251262, "textFts": "'bull':2 'race':3 'red':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068307187, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.347", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 68.40686821076112, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e0ad1dcfea1d", "prob": 0.0026472735227296646, "text": "McLaren", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.010001733086067865, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.7681243276297316, "textFts": "'mclaren':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068311011, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.727", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1941333916668421, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a2af63e4726", "prob": 0.0026733550352688734, "text": "McLaren", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.010150038131419943, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.7865915085442534, "textFts": "'mclaren':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068315710, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:14.727", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.19604603591971742, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "520747b101d2", "prob": 0.002699436547808082, "text": "Aston Martin Racing", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.01029907164216252, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8049680997700612, "textFts": "'aston':1 'martin':2 'race':3", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068320997, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.321", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1979586801725927, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2a489c24ca63", "prob": 0.0027255180603472907, "text": "Williams", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.010448830137912417, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8232554075735075, "textFts": "'william':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068325185, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.312", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.199871324425468, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2b0a42a68b4a", "prob": 0.0027515995728864986, "text": "AlphaTauri", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.010599310188597975, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.841454707060368, "textFts": "'alphatauri':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068328520, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.321", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20178396867834325, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "59b4c8b1ec2d", "prob": 0.002777681085425707, "text": "Alpine", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.010750508413262918, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8595672432069863, "textFts": "'alpin':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068333843, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.31", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20369661293121855, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5fe60e5ab17a", "prob": 0.09779349198571823, "text": "Ferrari", "index": 8, "poolNo": 4.936834067280984, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.54540117186928, "textFts": "'ferrari':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068339488, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.312", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 14.995002104476795, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7fac1af3fdbe", "prob": 0.002829844110504124, "text": "Haas F1 Team", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.01105504609937991, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8955368606224723, "textFts": "'f1':2 'haa':1 'team':3", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068343883, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.321", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2075219014369691, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a37ac106618b", "prob": 0.002855925623043333, "text": "Alfa Romeo", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.01120837903427278, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.9133962898817547, "textFts": "'alfa':1 'romeo':2", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648068352505, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.31", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20943454568984446, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8d489aa33c5e", "prob": 0.00010734179959571947, "text": "Mercedes", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.00012604751281683523, "userId": "eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.174137038177631, "textFts": "'merced':1", "contractId": "G6v8fGGm1nYZb2OLtPgq", "createdTime": 1648127544491, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.321", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1666558139000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012165403954181541, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 7 | 1660835516140 | 1648139556243 | {"95a4424f46e2": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | VMSi7zauH8ocqXPFYxB9 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 175} | 0.4 | will-the-2024-presidential-election | 0 | Will the 2024 Presidential Election winner of attempted or advocated for overturning the results of 2020 Presidential election? | 1648140512094 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8832713489294053 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648069027634 | Scott Owens | This market resolves to yes if the winner has ever advocated for overturning the 2020 elections irrespective of validity or sincerity of claims. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648140512094 | 175 | ScottOwens | 1648069027634 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489530}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866872}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181888686}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.4 | False | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.017290791845772525 | OSeCV2xIvE3PlMWCrpSd | {"NO": 9.502629207105953, "YES": 31.003612232859037} | 0 | will-the-syrian-rebels-capture-dama | 79.0621718092325 | Will the Syrian rebels capture Damascus as of December 31, 2022? | 1672462740000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1648069167975 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if the Syrian rebels capture Damascus as of December 31, 2022. If the Syrian government controls it or if the city is contested, the market resolves to "no". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0406840913610889, "platformFee": 0.006780681893514818, "liquidityFee": 0.0406840913610889} | 0 | 1672931911545 | 10.040684091361088 | EnopoletusHarding | 1667245270336 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0.01 | 1667245268787 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5953678333511391 | dtqXwIlhPFOWtPdfX3Qn | {"NO": 66.16942395520428, "YES": 167.0115185904345} | 0 | will-phoenix-be-the-most-represente | 1056 | Will Phoenix be the most represented deck in top thirty two of the Pioneer Showcase Challenge on Sunday? | 1648386000000 | EIOKALSntrWw62Gd1ufAwIlpSjo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7062325000134413 | True | play | NO | public | 1648084990575 | andrei klepatch | Resolves Yes if I identify Phoenix as the most prevalent archetype in top thirty two of the Pioneer Showcase Challenge event on 2022-03-27.
Market closes at start of event. Market resolved after results are published.
Mar 30, 6:59pm: As per https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/pioneer-challenge-12401453#paper Lotus and Phoenix both had five copies in top 32. Resolved NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.977557376157157, "platformFee": 1.3295928960261931, "liquidityFee": 7.977557376157157} | 0 | 1648681488300 | 107.97755737615716 | andreiklepatch | 1695246470195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgHRhRjIT-07p__V9cIjlWycFHjaJpNB9BgrzYz=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1695246469695 | 0.36827056292016935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43837060140532375 | gTwqQ6FyZwNdABZ6lCff | {"NO": 145.667143046909, "YES": 314.7593865816468} | 1 | will-chs-end-rostered-days-by-the-e | 122 | Will CHS end rostered days by the end of next week? | 1648242275641 | ekXqqrqC3gTkbvtEpnGKdGixUJM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6834952492618875 | True | play | YES | public | 1648086484567 | Matt | Will resolve to YES if no rostered days are taken the week after next, will resolve to NO if they are still taken, even in modified form. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0968424821504286, "platformFee": 0.3494737470250714, "liquidityFee": 2.0968424821504286} | 0 | 1648242275641 | 202.09684248215044 | Matthewmiaow | 1648086484567 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHgN9LC-QpoSgrsO0Zw2H-UQO2LQDImnXXxSKM=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.26536611074108485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6340619951666974 | j3aLn2TjF0zkhnTabxB6 | {"NO": 221.1528163111235, "YES": 68.00108601807159} | 1 | will-and-still-be-together-by-the-e | 225 | Will ## and ## still be together by the end of July? | 1659268740000 | ekXqqrqC3gTkbvtEpnGKdGixUJM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0599548064783075 | True | play | YES | public | 1648086812882 | Matt | Resolves to YES if still "together" in some form (does not have to be exclusive) by end of July 2022, resolves to NO if not together. Status at discretion of admin. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.538374856880377, "platformFee": 0.3905086357420047, "liquidityFee": 2.3430518144520276} | 0 | 1660193413512 | 102.34305181445202 | Matthewmiaow | 1660192674733 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwHgN9LC-QpoSgrsO0Zw2H-UQO2LQDImnXXxSKM=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.63 | 1658996999654 | 1660192669529 | 0.8492861367399004 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44861680614226485 | Axqh6BMAWVVuBzBxXUX6 | {"NO": 148.66792460578577, "YES": 84.74286730654114} | 1 | 100-bounty-will-someone-combine-the | 2141.0296797738883 | $100 bounty: Will someone combine these two datasets between obesity & water contamination? | 1653716561976 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5600761390540114 | True | play | YES | public | 1648087612798 | Austin | Context: Slime Mold Time Mold has an interesting hypothesis: environmental contaminants cause obesity. Elizabeth has found two data sources which could be combined to test this hypothesis.
1: EWG's drinking water database, which has contaminants by zip code https://data.world/arnholdinst/drinking-water-contaminations
2: County Health Rankings, which has % obesity by county https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/explore-health-rankings/rankings-data-documentation
There's a $100 bounty for somebody to combine these two into a single spreadsheet, which would allow a statistician to run an analysis. https://simplemaps.com/data/us-zips could provide the mapping of zip codes to counties. More discussion here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kjmpq33kHg7YpeRYW/briefly-radvac-and-smtm-two-things-we-should-be-doing?commentId=rwyGuSS5QnRtBRook
This market resolves to YES iff someone posts a link to such a combined dataset that is accepted by Elizabeth as sufficiently good. If you'd like to work on this, consider posting a comment beforehand indicating your intent!
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.1351146692776, "platformFee": 1.5225191115462666, "liquidityFee": 9.1351146692776} | 0 | 1653716561976 | 107.87203936958862 | Austin | 1653716553878 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 26 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524262}] | ["science-default"] | 0.35 | 1653666634290 | 1653716552431 | 0.5880312533173366 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.618730360816266 | H8hgJ7x0esSiMCZXdNVe | {"NO": 1108.4099073613293, "YES": 918.5971934072068} | 0.661950124869313 | does-covid19-have-hidden-longterm-n | 524.9515596364242 | Does Covid-19 have hidden long-term negative health effects? | 1742857140000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 3.126288584703627e-16 | 9.683671013469294 | False | basic | public | 1648109139670 | Zhao Nan | Some people are worried that a Covid-19 infection could have consequences which are still not apparent now, like the effects of an HIV infection which start getting bad only after several years.
This market resolves YES if such effects are found and published in peer-reviewed medical literature.
Effects commonly subsumed into "Long Covid", i.e., immediate effects of the infection which persist even after the infection is over and the virus can no longer be detected, do NOT count here.
Mar 28, 1:35pm: For the purpose of this market, I will view Covid-related ARDS and also its (possibly long-term) consequences as an immediate effect, which will not cause the market to resolve YES. However, if it turns out that Covid-19 somehow leads to an unusual form of ARDS which has more dangerous long-term health effects, then this might cause resolution to YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009949223534897023} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.833034416992745, "platformFee": 1.2519684343655817, "liquidityFee": 3.2730778037738504} | 0 | 1000 | ZhaoNan | 1719674922316 | 0.1 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601087}] | ["medicine"] | 0.09991935211680568 | 0.33 | 1719613147819 | 1719674921173 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd | some-games-i-enjoyed-are-creeper-wo | 84.99790203321201 | Some games I enjoyed are Creeper World, Tentacle Wars, Deep, and Flow. What similar games will I enjoy? | 1651388400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.157097505578517 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648150690682 | Isaac King | In your answer, please mention whether the game is free or not. I'll try all of the free ones, and I'll try the top few of the paid ones.
I'm primarily looking for games that have a similar aesthetic, so I might select an answer that feels like what I'm looking for even if I don't personally enjoy it all that much, and I might not select one that I do enjoy if it's too different from the four I mentioned.
Deep and Flow both have pretty generic names, so here are links:
https://thatgamecompany.com/flow/
https://www.kongregate.com/games/jgames/deep
Mar 25, 8:51pm: I should also clarify that I won't pick an answer if I've already played that game, since the purpose of this market is to find me new ones.
Jun 1, 11:38am: Sorry for the late resolution, I took a break from Manifold and forgot about this market. Resolving as N/A because the only games suggested were ones I'd already played. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17005336327533313, "platformFee": 0.04251334081883328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654100745141 | 340 | IsaacKing | 1648150690682 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "42ed3c8aecba", "prob": 0.5249678387638109, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.912531184696384, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.213567141208344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648150691047, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654100745000, "totalLiquidity": 56.99185934834269, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e1c710f39434", "prob": 0.23102984905607685, "text": "Mindustry (Paid, $6)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.195977663532311, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.578976203333, "textFts": "'6':3 'mindustri':1 'paid':2", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648159851011, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654100745000, "totalLiquidity": 27.72358188672922, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b70abd13ec6f", "prob": 0.15296056250622025, "text": "Mindustry (free)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 10.400096645370521, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.59191694929441, "textFts": "'free':2 'mindustri':1", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648249397476, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.075", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654100745000, "totalLiquidity": 24.47369000099524, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ab0f013940de", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Phage Wars", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'phage':1 'war':2", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648262935221, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.074", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654100745000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2309ca7e18f0", "prob": 0.09094174967389206, "text": "Phage Wars (free)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 4.602238112799847, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.00420094630127, "textFts": "'free':3 'phage':1 'war':2", "contractId": "RnN3CNt8Oj8L220Ls2pd", "createdTime": 1648262957716, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654100745000, "totalLiquidity": 14.55067994782273, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648265638243 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mJgg2n8rBkkLBB59hhOX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | niausndiluawef | 0 | [placeholder] | 1648796340000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648153221541 | Luna Nova | Lol, zwnj | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702261396682 | 100 | LunaNova | 1701545205095 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1701545204423 | 0.5 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49578707934656097 | fXmCFbL8PwDFMT5XB2vX | {"NO": 5.305856129685916, "YES": 19.980000000000004} | 1 | will-the-luc-in-uruguay-stand | 10 | Will the LUC in Uruguay stand? | 1648353540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582128230664509 | True | play | YES | public | 1648153232821 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if voters approve of the continuation of the LUC in Uruguay on March 27. It resolves to "no" if voters vote to overturn the LUC.
Close date updated to 2022-03-26 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12000000000000008, "platformFee": 0.020000000000000014, "liquidityFee": 0.12000000000000008} | 0 | 1648480249271 | 10.12 | EnopoletusHarding | 1648153232821 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498452}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 0.20705445654697802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w | what-are-the-most-interesting-facts | 550 | What are the most interesting facts/opinions/questions about prediction markets? | 1649274077508 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7111990411760445 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648159651352 | Daniel Reeves | This market resolves to whatever the market probabilities are at market close. Does that make this prediction market impossibly circular? Maybe! It's an experiment. My hypothesis is that it's a bit of a popularity contest but is still interesting and meaningful. Bet on your favorite response and if other traders don't disagree, you'll make money!
Mar 28, 3:06pm: Thanks to @Undox for pointing out a sniping strategy for these kinds of beauty contest markets. To fix that exploit let me hereby commit to resolving the market at a random time a couple days before market close or to whatever the probabilities were before any last-second sniping.
Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm
Apr 6, 12:33pm: Also I have to actually agree with the fact to include it in the resolution. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.960000000000003, "platformFee": 1.2400000000000007, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649274077508 | 800.0000000000002 | dreev | 1648159651352 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3db4bed22628", "prob": 0.04076143320693326, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5761745220734136, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.559111623248139, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648159651610, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.603", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 2.795069705618281, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5e33cf4df1b9", "prob": 0.1605421351692484, "text": "You can use a pair of conditional prediction markets to make a decision!", "index": 1, "poolNo": 7.6225389658059495, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.8574509930297, "textFts": "'condit':7 'decis':13 'make':11 'market':9 'pair':5 'predict':8 'use':3", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648159839267, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:03.602", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 17.430288961232684, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a441638f8c47", "prob": 0.14563754324439182, "text": "Prediction markets with sufficient liquidity are very robust to manipulation.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 8.933553398680205, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.40745249626932, "textFts": "'liquid':5 'manipul':10 'market':2 'predict':1 'robust':8 'suffici':4", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648159876822, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.296", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 21.637577853452502, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f8fd76051f4f", "prob": 0.07038435726317384, "text": "There are tentative indications that real-money prediction markets can outperform world-leading salaried analysts in prediction accuracy", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.8773839141385724, "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.00363036265249, "textFts": "'accuraci':20 'analyst':17 'indic':4 'lead':15 'market':10 'money':8 'outperform':12 'predict':9,19 'real':7 'real-money':6 'salari':16 'tentat':3 'world':14 'world-lead':13", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648160334129, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.296", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 10.457104507671543, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9637ab951720", "prob": 0.07194959629832008, "text": "Prediction markets, if setup properly may be used to judge quality of experts (though neither Metaculus nor Manifold succeeded here)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 2.9764052337500218, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.39151601780419, "textFts": "'expert':13 'judg':10 'manifold':18 'market':2 'may':6 'metaculus':16 'neither':15 'predict':1 'proper':5 'qualiti':11 'setup':4 'succeed':19 'though':14 'use':8", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648175308395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.298", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 10.689654307178984, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "75a01c36d5ed", "prob": 0.17208891943574833, "text": "Automated market makers make combinatorial prediction markets possible.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 5.383106899336273, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.897854809218863, "textFts": "'autom':1 'combinatori':5 'make':4 'maker':3 'market':2,7 'possibl':8 'predict':6", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648227112844, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:04.298", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 11.8072401898799, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ffa1be386cf0", "prob": 0.07340055055375246, "text": "You can generally trust people to resolve correctly.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 3.8956402866204423, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.178079967938125, "textFts": "'correct':8 'general':3 'peopl':5 'resolv':7 'trust':4", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648245716123, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.446", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 13.841246675850464, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "908b123515ea", "prob": 0.02059864109549099, "text": "You can't generally trust people to resolve correctly.", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.3243344323069825, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.421094152201869, "textFts": "'correct':9 'general':4 'peopl':6 'resolv':8 'trust':5", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648338892642, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.449", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 2.2364238903675933, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b479dbb6a680", "prob": 0.034994028117923605, "text": "In markets like this the best tactic is to snipe a big bet on an outlier at the last second", "index": 8, "poolNo": 1.5231681392995164, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.00334827563599, "textFts": "'best':6 'bet':13 'big':12 'last':19 'like':3 'market':2 'outlier':16 'second':20 'snipe':10 'tactic':7", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648361222795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.447", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 7.998634998382538, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0b65e05f2e77", "prob": 0.046021273332498544, "text": "If you put trades in a queue for an hour, you can lower liquidity when many trades go in the same direction, to pay less for suddenly common knowledge!", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.6931253747665433, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.367852398681624, "textFts": "'common':28 'direct':22 'go':18 'hour':10 'knowledg':29 'less':25 'liquid':14 'lower':13 'mani':16 'pay':24 'put':3 'queue':7 'sudden':27 'trade':4,17", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648769521652, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.447", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 3.1557444570856146, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e507fab4373d", "prob": 0.06788759500072516, "text": "You can use prediction markets to funnel your money into those future worlds where money is more useful to you.", "index": 10, "poolNo": 1.9891477537187612, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.31145942933896, "textFts": "'funnel':7 'futur':12 'market':5 'money':9,15 'predict':4 'use':3,18 'world':13", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648769782075, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.449", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 7.370653171507303, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "75838f37c3c5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "If you're poor and nobody believes you about a 100 markets that all resolve this midnight, you can make a single market about whether *all* your hunches are correct and still end up rich by tomorrow!", "index": 11, "poolNo": 6.857485740002144e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6856799991428143, "textFts": "'100':11 'believ':7 'correct':30 'end':33 'hunch':28 'make':20 'market':12,23 'midnight':17 'nobodi':6 'poor':4 're':3 'resolv':15 'rich':35 'singl':22 'still':32 'tomorrow':37 'whether':25", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648770087578, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.449", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006857142857142858, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1e1f471d36f5", "prob": 0.0369766096551455, "text": "If you're poor and know how 10 markets will resolve this midnight but nobody believes you, you can make a single market about whether you're right on all counts and still end up rich by tomorrow!", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.4968386951930217, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.939728362378839, "textFts": "'10':8 'believ':16 'count':31 'end':34 'know':6 'make':20 'market':9,23 'midnight':13 'nobodi':15 'poor':4 're':3,27 'resolv':11 'rich':36 'right':28 'singl':22 'still':33 'tomorrow':38 'whether':25", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648770287788, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.449", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5355389477814056, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "80c375d6bf10", "prob": 0.058657317626647845, "text": "For CFMM, if you place 50 YES and 200 NO on the market-making table instead of 100 YES and 100 NO, someone who knows the answer is YES can only take 50 mana from you, which can be useful when you were trying to sell NO to people. You can do this by initializing the market at a lower probability than your true estimate, then buying YES in your own market.", "index": 13, "poolNo": 1.0040437114457668, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.113065492839304, "textFts": "'100':19,22 '200':9 '50':6,34 'answer':28 'buy':68 'cfmm':2 'estim':66 'initi':56 'instead':17 'know':26 'lower':61 'make':15 'mana':35 'market':14,58,73 'market-mak':13 'peopl':50 'place':5 'probabl':62 'sell':47 'someon':24 'tabl':16 'take':33 'tri':45 'true':65 'use':41 'yes':7,20,30,69", "contractId": "YoIltamQwyPPzBVQIV9w", "createdTime": 1648770939833, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.449", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649274077000, "totalLiquidity": 4.022216065827281, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648769497089 | {"0b65e05f2e77": 5.104041887219563, "5e33cf4df1b9": 17.80510888187156, "75a01c36d5ed": 19.0968087946084, "80c375d6bf10": 6.5054568133154005, "9637ab951720": 7.979652162640971, "a441638f8c47": 16.152098089519974, "b479dbb6a680": 3.8810526607114246, "e507fab4373d": 7.529151268867915, "f8fd76051f4f": 7.806057539537487, "ffa1be386cf0": 8.14057190170731} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4682085659871697 | xX1DwGnkHUsgu5ALDZEE | {"NO": 274.20898047226103, "YES": 73.52651050529283} | 0.7665455195315329 | will-thestalwart-have-a-verified-tw | 1262.5533819055229 | Will @TheStalwart have a verified Twitter account by April 15, 2022? | 1649624097082 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.278772721281543 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648161121619 | Alex Power | Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) probably should have a verified account on Twitter. He has 300k followers and a podcast published by Bloomberg.
This is an action market: I cannot figure out how to ask Twitter to verify an account, but I assume somebody here can do that. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.590292187438397, "platformFee": 2.7650486979063995, "liquidityFee": 16.590292187438397} | 0 | 1649624097082 | 114.7718685569497 | AlexPower | 1648161121619 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1649624088792 | 0.17366997164518444 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4969425920738354 | Tg0HBg5ms5AxGn1apP87 | {"NO": 24.061124877440072, "YES": 69.92615384615385} | 0 | will-pauper-delver-win-this-game-ag | 30 | Will Pauper Delver win this game against Pauper Affinity? | 1648364340000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.065591456259095 | True | play | NO | public | 1648161275796 | Isaac King | Board state: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qbKvZkKoxkjfTR2M-pfU-pFl0Bvh22Hq/view?usp=sharing
(The die next to Affinity's lands is a Treasure token.)
Affinity player has just started their turn; they've drawn but haven't done anything else. Life totals are Delver at 12 vs. Affinity at 15.
Delver's hand is Snap, Spellstutter Sprite, Faerie Miscreants, Ponder, Counterspell.
Affinity's hand is Ornithopter, Myr Enforcer, Hunger of the Nim. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.44307692307692315, "platformFee": 0.07384615384615387, "liquidityFee": 0.44307692307692315} | 0 | 1648391838680 | 40.44307692307692 | IsaacKing | 1648161275796 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.25368166051113084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.837864189288682 | QB27Xf0dE4tJoEmorfiT | {"NO": 0.35984649072318264, "YES": 58.83952206867809} | 0.2 | will-the-january-2028-mauna-loa-co2 | 513 | Will the January 2028 Mauna Loa CO2 reading be lower than 427 ppm? | 1654573664894 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.559303562794488 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648162414349 | Alex Power | I'm paying you to do the research for me. I will buy YES in response to good comments. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12617994044134667, "platformFee": 0.02102999007355778, "liquidityFee": 0.12617994044134667} | 0 | 1654573664894 | 50.12617994044135 | AlexPower | 1652179582881 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.9 | 1652179581374 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30182521577558746 | icLMDruY3wpjLeUaKUJu | {"NO": 172.34023201195197, "YES": 7260.876616369136} | 0 | will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8 | 19884.65833176868 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted in 2022? | 1672639140000 | kxVFFkiufTN6rqivB2h0dHnJG7v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5317612577539146 | True | play | NO | public | 1648168319387 | dadonk | The New York Times: "The [DOJ] investigation, which began as a tax inquiry under the Obama administration, widened in 2018 to include possible criminal violations of tax laws, as well as foreign lobbying and money laundering rules, according to the people familiar with the inquiry." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/hunter-biden-tax-bill-investigation.html
The market will resolve positive if a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing an indictment of Hunter Biden exists before January 1st, 2023. The market will otherwise resolve negative on the aforementioned date.
Peter Schweizer predicts an indictment: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/author-peter-schweizer-makes-bold-prediction-on-hunter-biden-after-new-york-times-admits-laptop-legit
Katie Benner says the DoJ "has struggled to find evidence to support criminal charges."
https://twitter.com/ktbenner/status/1504251068884172801
Ken Vogel: NYT writer who wrote that piece "@TheJusticeDept
might find it tricky to bring criminal charges against HUNTER BIDEN for several reasons, including:
➡️politics
➡️he's paid his back taxes
➡️criminal FARA requires proving intent
➡️money laundering is rarely charged as a standalone offense"
Daily Mail, March 18th 2022: "Lawyer of stripper who had Hunter Biden's daughter says he expects the President's son to be INDICTED in his criminal tax probe in Delaware and hands prosecutors MORE financial documents" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10627297/Lawyer-stripper-Hunter-Bidens-daughter-says-expects-Presidents-son-INDICTED.html
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm
Mar 27, 5:13pm: https://youtu.be/XdzZL0iOVgw?t=192 Law and Crime show: Pullitzer winning Investigative reporter David K Johnson, who has written about the Trump family's legal issues talks about the case likelihood of indictment. Notes that Trump-appointed US attorney in delaware is in charge. Said indictiment is a "distinct possibility", but notes some problems with the case, similar to Vogel.
Mar 28, 6:44pm: https://www.wsj.com/articles/prosecutors-advance-tax-probe-of-hunter-biden-11648465200 "Prosecutors Advance Tax Probe of Hunter Biden. Grand jury heard witness in February about past drug use, spending habits of president’s son"
Mar 30, 12:38pm: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/30/hunter-biden-china-laptop/ Washington Post: Inside Hunter Biden’s multimillion-dollar deals with a Chinese energy company
A Washington Post review confirms key details and offers new documentation of Biden family interactions with Chinese executives
Apr 15, 5:55pm: Posted a version of this question with a larger scope -- indictment anytime before next presidential election https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-befor
There's an existing question on Metuculus btw https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ , and I'm working on getting the shorter term 2022 question over there, but it's in queue. This will allow an apples to apples comparison between Manifold and Metuculus on this question. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.42201052547165, "platformFee": 3.4528826616819575, "liquidityFee": 20.71729597009175} | 0 | 1675497992364 | 620.713737229034 | dadonk | 1675498004061 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6PYzyjuxUZjEr4q63s5Ozxgkd9Rti-RfjPTsV=s96-c | 57 | 0 | 7 | 52 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856952}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501163}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428403}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673669983949}] | ["politics-default", "law-order", "the-life-of-biden", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1672623548698 | 1675498000087 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8 | what-will-be-the-most-download-app | 1448.005875814364 | What will be the most download app of 2022? | 1672549140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.654479034394921 | True | play | 28113c6212e0 | public | 1648168763700 | Duncn | What will be the globally most-download app of 2022? I will default to a list published by Forbes if possible (e.g., https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2021/12/27/top-10-most-downloaded-apps-and-games-of-2021-tiktok-telegram-big-winners/ ).
Mar 29, 5:59pm: If duplicate answers are submitted, the first submitted will be chosen, and the others ignored. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5321407599516897, "platformFee": 0.13303518998792244, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673476736249 | 920 | Duncn | 1672541464090 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1d7989d3bd5f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648168763903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.024", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "28113c6212e0", "prob": 0.8632292163966837, "text": "TikTok", "index": 1, "poolNo": 178.39993597484303, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.265840143723935, "textFts": "'tiktok':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648173854588, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.51", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 71.01143620513176, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4b55d4fc7af7", "prob": 0.015387174266392096, "text": "Telegram", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.30776947726342413, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.693919717590173, "textFts": "'telegram':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648173864924, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4619478826227352, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "83b223c1edf5", "prob": 0.011091821831795913, "text": "FB", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.23493966153071708, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.94640142864412, "textFts": "'fb':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648173872501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 2.2183643663591828, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1bba8da6ba3d", "prob": 0.016214173742770826, "text": "Whatsapp", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.41631489421185924, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.259670870864543, "textFts": "'whatsapp':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648173887125, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:47.338", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 3.242834748554165, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "da164e843d59", "prob": 0.06539155640053605, "text": "Instagram", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6.226875205274944, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.99757804269666, "textFts": "'instagram':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648197020791, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 23.54096030419298, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "965aa8afec16", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Manifold Markets", "index": 6, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'manifold':1 'market':2", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648312446110, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "107af8b86c71", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Telegram", "index": 7, "poolNo": 8.000400030002501e-05, "userId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.79995999899995, "textFts": "'telegram':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648469351845, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 0.008, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "007c3f0cb858", "prob": 0.014128517431039163, "text": "curl", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.13530838873853243, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.441661693152106, "textFts": "'curl':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648567616804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 1.130281394483133, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8136f122607d", "prob": 0.01425753993078236, "text": "WeChat", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.1371750571916627, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.48405398075047, "textFts": "'wechat':1", "contractId": "TjpttmcXDKp2tUrfNnx8", "createdTime": 1648567793029, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:46.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1673476736000, "totalLiquidity": 1.1406031944625887, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 3 | 18 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449249}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1670970785757}] | ["technology-default", "tiktok"] | 1672541463971 | 1648470190363 | {"28113c6212e0": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11702674079411171 | 2VjCMXs9jLVOFuHhVHy6 | {"NO": 120.85813740850723, "YES": 959.5704150560382} | 0 | will-any-supreme-court-justice-othe | 1350.7807845333632 | Will any Supreme Court justice other than Breyer die or announce retirement before November 2022? | 1667275140000 | VrjGEWp4UjapH2zsKeFAzfyDdb63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.264112805653914 | True | play | NO | public | 1648168774853 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will be resolved November 1. Market closes a month before. For retirement, date of announcement is used, not date of retirement. If a justice seems \"inactive\", but hasn't formally announced retirement, resolved as NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 9:57am: I pushed the close date back to Oct 31. No reason for this to close early.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8583022711176467, "platformFee": 0.32327677727755244, "liquidityFee": 1.9396606636653146} | 0 | 1667757283944 | 161.9396606636653 | Will | 1667274337594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxiyYkB_OdjR0U9pH9IR_iOLYrnIZ9wVgHFboMaHQ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 2 | 14 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427101}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467776}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330756}] | ["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"] | 0.2 | 1667274337491 | 0.016419001268699985 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018000221467819003 | uHdLJytgMkOc5NKcCxLQ | {"NO": 43.90706476373438, "YES": 3.344934016623789} | 0.19394478296952763 | will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd | 107.86002621306568 | Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election) [CFMM market] | 1663277432292 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.211392817474 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648175912775 | Account deletion requested | Resolves as NO if
- question will be not resolved and there are three weeks with a new president
- question is resolved and Dwayne Johnson in theory may still win election (even as write-in candidate or due to unfaithful electors or similar silliness)
- question is resolved as YES despite that a different candidate won
- question is resolved as NO despite this candidate won
- question is resolved as NA
- question gets its resolve criteria redefined
Resolves as YES if
- question is resolved as NO and a different candidate won
- question is resolved as YES and this candidate won
Link: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us
Old-style market: https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo
Close date updated to 2025-01-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663277432292 | 50.24138835903065 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1663277442887 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0.01 | 1663259104949 | 1663277441703 | 0.19394478296952766 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK | which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals | 109005.4792492399 | Which team will win the NBA Finals 2022? | 1655458618434 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615918680192353 | True | basic | ff97cac2d22d | public | 1648200496171 | howtodowtle | Resolved according to https://www.espn.com/nba/ or a similar main sports website.
If for some reason there are no 2022 NBA Finals, this is resolved to PROB at the end of 2022. (This also includes if a champion is declared without any NBA Finals being played, e. g. via an armchair decision. If any amount of actual NBA Finals basketball is played and a winning team is declared following that, I will resolve to that team.)
Close date updated to 2022-06-01 11:59 pm
Mar 28, 10:41am: Duplicate to https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-win-the-nba-finals-champio
Close date updated to 2022-06-20 11:59 pm
Jun 9, 9:08am: Market for 2023: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-648f3fcc1f2e | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 500.4826624136208, "platformFee": 125.1206656034052, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655458618434 | 2200 | howtodowtle | 1655458502682 | 0 | 40 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c3462707279b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200496499, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.687", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a3dc4f210756", "prob": 0.002333760172020024, "text": "Boston Celtics", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.09782363372258224, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.81892295207137, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200515270, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.682", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0225921490840206, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "893c27d34cff", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Phoenix Suns", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00046669000175014584, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.666433327499709, "textFts": "'phoenix':1 'sun':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200526057, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c9a805c690f0", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Milwaukee Bucks", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00038668600145012086, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.8664733284997586, "textFts": "'buck':2 'milwauke':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200535372, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03866666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "67cf5e4eb6b8", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Denver Nuggets", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00014667400055004583, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4665933314999082, "textFts": "'denver':1 'nugget':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200542239, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.687", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014666666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7309ebbaddce", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Miami Heat", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0003466840013001084, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.466493328999784, "textFts": "'heat':2 'miami':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200549837, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.687", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03466666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "898edb3a90c9", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Utah Jazz", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'jazz':2 'utah':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200560317, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5c166d4d2241", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Memphis Grizzlies", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.00018667600070005835, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.8665733309998835, "textFts": "'grizzli':2 'memphi':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200567894, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.543", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2e8fe2ee045", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Philadelphia 76ers", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.00014667400055004583, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.4665933314999082, "textFts": "'76ers':2 'philadelphia':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200579588, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.687", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014666666666666666, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ff97cac2d22d", "prob": 0.9963662398279801, "text": "Golden State Warriors", "index": 9, "poolNo": 41.26634621717589, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.1504988821727299, "textFts": "'golden':1 'state':2 'warrior':3", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200594774, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.681", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4920952985465528, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "19587c484eac", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Dallas Mavericks", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.00022667800085007087, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.266553330499858, "textFts": "'dalla':1 'maverick':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200602739, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.02266666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d7b67062f36b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Brooklyn Nets", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.00018667600070005835, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.8665733309998835, "textFts": "'brooklyn':1 'net':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1648200619038, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.018666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ea695f163701", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Los Angeles Clippers", "index": 12, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "'angel':2 'clipper':3 'los':1", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1649839726108, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.681", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "07601773f47f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.00010667200040003336, "userId": "skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0666133319999334, "textFts": "'minnesota':1 'timberwolv':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1650363320590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "62903b1f320b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Atlanta Hawks", "index": 14, "poolNo": 6.667000025002084e-05, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6666333324999584, "textFts": "'atlanta':1 'hawk':2", "contractId": "VszGsIyYvTpYzFHCOpXK", "createdTime": 1650702780522, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.688", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1655458618000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006666666666666667, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403584}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181993750}] | ["sports-default", "basketball"] | 1655458501384 | 1655057830200 | False | {"ff97cac2d22d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7411726832827936 | RdHtZBWs0H28LiAJ5PJn | {"NO": 1.2153066365686271, "YES": 128.780513900913} | 0 | will-mariupol-fall-by-may | 2649.437996611099 | Will Mariupol fall by May? | 1651355940000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.6488273541883744 | True | play | NO | public | 1648213543911 | Account deletion requested | This question resolves to Yes if Russia occupies Mariupol in Ukraine by the deadline.
See "Will Mariupol fall by April?" for https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-mariupol-fall-by-april
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.401399944828189, "platformFee": 1.5668999908046983, "liquidityFee": 9.401399944828189} | 0 | 1652209061845 | 59.6343862392566 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1648213543911 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0.98 | 1651351232153 | 1650995400901 | 0.02631264699402007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3164734838848351 | XE21SKELSl1bLIz5r0II | {"NO": 78.88671748003937, "YES": 767.0421966699965} | 0 | will-the-acres-of-california-burned | 662.8687343088702 | Will the acres of California burned by fire this year exceed that of last year? | 1669967940000 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7663572639614014 | True | play | NO | public | 1648236192217 | Nathan | Year Fires Acres Hectares Ref
2000 7,622 295,026 119,393 [25]
2001 9,458 329,126 133,193 [26]
2002 8,328 969,890 392,500 [27][28]
2003 9,116 1,020,460 412,970 [29][30][31]
2004 8,415 264,988 107,237 [32][33]
2005 7,162 222,538 90,058 [34][35]
2006 8,202 736,022 297,858 [36][37]
2007 9,093 1,520,362 615,269 [25][38]
2008 6,255 1,593,690 644,940 [25]
2009 9,159 422,147 170,837 [39][40]
2010 6,554 109,529 44,325 [41]
2011 7,989 168,545 68,208 [42][43]
2012 7,950 869,599 351,914 [44]
2013 9,907 601,635 243,473 [45][46]
2014 7,865 625,540 253,150 [47][48]
2015 8,745 893,362 361,531 [49]
2016 6,986 669,534 270,951 [50][51]
2017 9,560 1,548,429 626,627 [52][53]
2018 8,527 1,975,086 799,289 [54][55]
2019 7,860 259,823 105,147 [56]
2020 9,639 4,397,809 1,779,730 [57]
2021 8,835 2,568,948 1,039,616 [58]
Average 8,329 1,002,822 405,828 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4684320180613115, "platformFee": 0.411405336343552, "liquidityFee": 2.4684320180613115} | 0 | 1671400502102 | 182.4684320180613 | NathanHelmBurger | 1669957213672 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0.5 | 1669957213496 | 1665768206857 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4522830491699155 | YAqFRCzb1sXEShRR56qC | {"NO": 69.90874315249265, "YES": 162.83602810792434} | 0 | will-the-percentage-of-california-i | 158.70589345317342 | Will the percentage of California in severe drought (level D2 or worse according to https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx ) | 1671581143586 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.83767849522464 | True | play | NO | public | 1648237221913 | Nathan | Mar 25, 12:40pm: Graph of recent years: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/tnxc4p/graph_of_california_drought_for_use_in_manifold/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Mar 25, 9:17pm: Whoops. Meant to say: Will the percentage of California in severe drought (level D2 or worse according to https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx ) be higher in 2022 than it was in 2021? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2390932294879953, "platformFee": 0.20651553824799923, "liquidityFee": 1.2390932294879953} | 0 | 1671581143586 | 101.23909322948799 | NathanHelmBurger | 1667245299165 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.45 | 1667245298986 | 1648265736900 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5584700024064971 | xUlpx3m9D7VgEx7WAq6n | {"NO": 236.97523273265858, "YES": 6.142718014553937} | 1 | will-tslas-stock-price-close-over-1 | 519 | Will TSLA's stock price close over $1000 in March 2022? | 1648710000000 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.084124064334077 | True | play | YES | public | 1648237898325 | taeyeon | Resolves 'YES' if TSLA's stock price is over $1000 after market close on 2022/03/31 ignoring after hours trading. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.498226862403477, "platformFee": 0.9163711437339129, "liquidityFee": 5.498226862403477} | 0 | 1648775483117 | 25.49822686240347 | taeyeon | 1648237898325 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.9799179656650032 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq | what-will-granfran-and-galiebers-ho | 439.17921199683065 | What will Granfran and Galieber's house in Breckenridge be named? | 4102473540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1648239150766 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The winner is whatever name sticks!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: We seem to be defaulting to \"breckenhaus\" most often but nothing has exactly stuck yet.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05406502502977617, "platformFee": 0.013516256257444043, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1020.0000000000006 | dreev | 1710457003785 | 1.2 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5072072141e1", "prob": 0.007503823294707886, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03796179724165471, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.0210322316325975, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239151020, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:21.385", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 0.43658608260118614, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "016a4717a168", "prob": 0.06192444981401323, "text": "Breckenmortar", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2.1984937200305352, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.304344442175086, "textFts": "'breckenmortar':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239178619, "probChanges": {"day": -0.013011841629750574, "week": -0.013011841629750574, "month": -0.013011841629750574}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.078", "probChangeDay": -0.013011841629750574, "probChangeWeek": -0.013011841629750574, "totalLiquidity": 8.556833065209101, "probChangeMonth": -0.013011841629750574}, {"id": "8b729158ddce", "prob": 0.049002321966011314, "text": "Fruella de Villa", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.5370435178638187, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.82970516253409, "textFts": "'de':2 'fruella':1 'villa':3", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239190994, "probChanges": {"day": -0.008637039492091415, "week": -0.008637039492091415, "month": -0.008637039492091415}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.788", "probChangeDay": -0.008637039492091415, "probChangeWeek": -0.008637039492091415, "totalLiquidity": 6.771229944394291, "probChangeMonth": -0.008637039492091415}, {"id": "9dd30a2f9732", "prob": 0.2182751369328396, "text": "Breckenhaus", "index": 3, "poolNo": 25.856804940205112, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 92.602884530341, "textFts": "'breckenhaus':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239203419, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0997685844861915, "week": -0.0997685844861915, "month": -0.0997685844861915}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.788", "probChangeDay": -0.0997685844861915, "probChangeWeek": -0.0997685844861915, "totalLiquidity": 48.932757148983185, "probChangeMonth": -0.0997685844861915}, {"id": "94b0cf0422be", "prob": 0.01020622601352694, "text": "Casabrecka", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.10175516986296068, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.868156306533729, "textFts": "'casabrecka':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239214546, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:22.124", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 1.0020658267826452, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ece471cb0f60", "prob": 0.054179042160240234, "text": "Breckabin", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1.2731324508804895, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.225482513833466, "textFts": "'breckabin':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239225253, "probChanges": {"day": -0.007220429425312355, "week": -0.007220429425312355, "month": -0.007220429425312355}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.788", "probChangeDay": -0.007220429425312355, "probChangeWeek": -0.007220429425312355, "totalLiquidity": 5.319396866641768, "probChangeMonth": -0.007220429425312355}, {"id": "792a5402fdad", "prob": 0.02536831798867465, "text": "Breckabode", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.23812474929344768, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.148573627782845, "textFts": "'breckabod':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239241514, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:22.529", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 1.4759748647956161, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "08314f3bfe40", "prob": 0.017249884040711625, "text": "Red Feather (the street name)", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.13296734798024423, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.575336526203876, "textFts": "'feather':2 'name':5 'red':1 'street':4", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239282718, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:22.729", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 1.003629616914131, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e1cb9121a165", "prob": 0.007593166317333479, "text": "Big Breck Frandy Mountain House", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.038643529397523635, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.0506074869155535, "textFts": "'big':1 'breck':2 'frandi':3 'hous':5 'mountain':4", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239295069, "probChanges": {"day": -0.002240521342231447, "week": -0.002240521342231447, "month": -0.002240521342231447}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.788", "probChangeDay": -0.002240521342231447, "probChangeWeek": -0.002240521342231447, "totalLiquidity": 0.44178422209940243, "probChangeMonth": -0.002240521342231447}, {"id": "356e7db929ae", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Bunkenridge", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.008790443627612962, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.386431370178868, "textFts": "'bunkenridg':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239306718, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:23.119", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 0.19636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "760edd4556b7", "prob": 0.018662332009751825, "text": "Breckaplex", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.1497362392701463, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.873711162260544, "textFts": "'breckaplex':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239315950, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:23.37", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 1.0858084078401062, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a60c2720086", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Brecklamation", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.0052091517793261995, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5993667378837735, "textFts": "'brecklam':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239328760, "probChanges": {"day": 0.002, "week": 0.002, "month": 0.002}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.789", "probChangeDay": 0.002, "probChangeWeek": 0.002, "totalLiquidity": 0.11636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0.002}, {"id": "2c839e41db0e", "prob": 0.015298889984087571, "text": "Skiboot-a-terre", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.11094939987073997, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.141171504726837, "textFts": "'skiboot':2 'skiboot-a-terr':1 'terr':4", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648239346039, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004129321102554262, "week": -0.004129321102554262, "month": -0.004129321102554262}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.789", "probChangeDay": -0.004129321102554262, "probChangeWeek": -0.004129321102554262, "totalLiquidity": 0.8901172354378224, "probChangeMonth": -0.004129321102554262}, {"id": "001552adec4b", "prob": 0.009825553747509074, "text": "Red Rooster", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.09609720730038292, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.684237801781931, "textFts": "'red':1 'rooster':2", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648250907881, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0002604047986611291, "week": -0.0002604047986611291, "month": -0.0002604047986611291}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.789", "probChangeDay": -0.0002604047986611291, "probChangeWeek": -0.0002604047986611291, "totalLiquidity": 0.9646907315736183, "probChangeMonth": -0.0002604047986611291}, {"id": "e3d57b9e8742", "prob": 0.04479236078461003, "text": "Red Nest", "index": 14, "poolNo": 1.7283051399465683, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.85651400493733, "textFts": "'nest':2 'red':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648250934992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:24.161", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 7.981184285257788, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "370f09a99ea2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Breckenball", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.0052091517793261995, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5993667378837735, "textFts": "'breckenbal':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648268563527, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:24.36", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 0.11636363636363638, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2939cec9309", "prob": 0.09328208231339699, "text": "The G-Spot", "index": 16, "poolNo": 2.9375977009358856, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.553955961712077, "textFts": "'g':3 'g-spot':2 'spot':4", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648268610502, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:24.559", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 9.15860444531534, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ed1d1369a1d", "prob": 0.008568663345645502, "text": "Galfransisco", "index": 17, "poolNo": 0.07821127570019246, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.04938220595276, "textFts": "'galfransisco':1", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648268956179, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:24.808", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 0.8412869466633767, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "426c95dc5d1c", "prob": 0.14255789597202687, "text": "Fort Buttress the Butt Fortress", "index": 18, "poolNo": 8.032216677313313, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.31132446816922, "textFts": "'butt':4 'buttress':2 'fort':1 'fortress':5", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1648269024699, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:25.009", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 19.69890926158917, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "867859958a76", "prob": 0.009418324567582613, "text": "The Roost", "index": 19, "poolNo": 0.05343214672018427, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.619779297287062, "textFts": "'roost':2", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1649355002029, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0032746465215955974, "week": -0.0032746465215955974, "month": -0.0032746465215955974}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:46:13.789", "probChangeDay": -0.0032746465215955974, "probChangeWeek": -0.0032746465215955974, "totalLiquidity": 0.547975247568443, "probChangeMonth": -0.0032746465215955974}, {"id": "a54fc8c2b6cd", "prob": 0.0991702673453533, "text": "The Handsome Hiney House", "index": 20, "poolNo": 1.9144241265772808, "userId": "B4hbhKgvRKZeWTQoCxb5dh9rkiJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.389992185122644, "textFts": "'handsom':2 'hiney':3 'hous':4", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1685278906442, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:25.439", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 5.769906463729646, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a0cbdd07f8bb", "prob": 0.10112126140197734, "text": "The Rowdy Rationalussy Residence", "index": 21, "poolNo": 1.9733333352719575, "userId": "B4hbhKgvRKZeWTQoCxb5dh9rkiJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.54119118620885, "textFts": "'rationalussi':3 'resid':4 'rowdi':2", "contractId": "ONUYji1KkzYlnWFeoMkq", "createdTime": 1685278985366, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:36:25.653", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 5.883418845205955, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 11 | 8 | [{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904791}] | ["naming-suggestions"] | 0.11421153845382717 | 1710456990295 | 1692569702581 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5001212728640488 | qgUdRkAwQblLP7rXMBWW | {"NO": 10.995475113122172, "YES": 9.194083588770498} | 0.5447322636767831 | will-rex-return-to-austin-in-2023 | 1 | Will Rex return to Austin in 2023? | 1648882740000 | 80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1648245807085 | Rex Salisbury | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.02714932126696833, "platformFee": 0.004524886877828055, "liquidityFee": 0.02714932126696833} | 0 | 10.027149321266968 | RexSalisbury | 1648245807085 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GguSPe7uqPA_sUt-m1cnsufcTV3grPFZqGZEY7yTdc=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547944}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1702947542361}] | ["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46981121346774135 | 8lw9VL3mCJyMMlBgS8pi | {"NO": 2.1852661166223086, "YES": 68.54787276549386} | 0 | will-kerbal-space-program-2-have-a | 90 | Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have a full release in 2022? | 1650925920000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.88116364036966 | True | play | NO | public | 1648247621565 | DAL59 | Will KSP 2 fully release, not including public betas or test copies for youtubers, by the end of 2022? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5489170454217217, "platformFee": 0.09148617423695363, "liquidityFee": 0.5489170454217217} | 0 | 1669241958773 | 10.548917045421721 | DAL59 | 1648247621565 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.027472924408904132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19609906280646644 | enTK2Edy7WksGii2r7WM | {"NO": 52.647332473037835, "YES": 1761.9000316115164} | 0 | will-this-manifold-prediction-marke | 1677 | Will this Manifold prediction market get more than 100 points on hacker news thus proving to all the world the ascendency of Manifold as the premier prediction market for predictions about Manifold (and probably other things too)? | 1648250014875 | 80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.497124666227431 | True | play | NO | public | 1648248002559 | Rex Salisbury | This market resolves to YES if by market close the hacker news post of this market has accumulated more than 1,000 points.
Mar 25, 3:40pm: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30807685
Mar 25, 3:45pm: *has accumulated more than 100 points is the correct resolution criteria. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.333458391768584, "platformFee": 0.3889097319614307, "liquidityFee": 2.333458391768584} | 0 | 1648250014875 | 102.33345839176857 | RexSalisbury | 1648248002559 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GguSPe7uqPA_sUt-m1cnsufcTV3grPFZqGZEY7yTdc=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.2 | 1648249533003 | 0.0072362572678435835 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5088361382817442 | ZlMXTpKeNKcbnjhvZBKa | {"NO": 932.7534003652434, "YES": 108.50160700978114} | 1 | will-i-pass-my-usmle-step-1-exam-on | 655 | Will I pass my USMLE step 1 exam on April 1, 2022? | 1649871201364 | nTVK2JXOQNRT5Txun09XZ2JNBAh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5300139165383466 | True | play | YES | public | 1648270634589 | Alex Chen | This market resolves to "yes" after my score report returns (est. 4/22/2022) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.185056188475673, "platformFee": 1.030842698079279, "liquidityFee": 6.185056188475673} | 0 | 1649871201364 | 306.1850561884757 | AlexChen | 1648270634589 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhQSuUF3XRvOW432MWMOSg93YM4m9-T8oW9LgW-qWc=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648506800127 | 0.8990509803189773 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3415870404219555 | m1p8tHech3pIwYh3WCor | {"NO": 30.402751107350483, "YES": 1195.334732660063} | 0 | will-the-total-combined-seeding-of | 1124 | Will the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four be 20 or more? | 1648422923010 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.384758932997895 | True | play | NO | public | 1648298708781 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if the combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four NCAA men’s basketball teams equals 20 or higher. For example, if the teams are #2 Duke, #2 Villanova, #1 Kansas, and #15 St. Peter’s, the combined seed total equals 20 and this market resolves YES.
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.315977678844434, "platformFee": 0.5526629464740724, "liquidityFee": 3.315977678844434} | 0 | 1648422923010 | 103.31597767884443 | dglid | 1648298708781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.013023661543399359 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.288593058253248 | JpEznB11ll2cug5Dvuh0 | {"NO": 42.51472134386745, "YES": 1119.0322132999593} | 0 | will-the-total-combined-seeding-of-d62fdb320dca | 1238 | Will the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four be the highest ever? | 1648422909885 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.31166652798819 | True | play | NO | public | 1648299282987 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if the total combined seeding of the 2022 Final Four NCAA men’s basketball teams equals 27 of more, breaking the 2011 record of 26 when #8 Butler, #11 VCU, #4 Kentucky, and #3 UConn made the Final Four.
This year has the potential to break that record with #15 St. Peter’s vs. #8 UNC, #4 Arkansas vs #2 Duke, #5 Houston vs #2 Villanova, and #10 Miami vs, #1 Kentucky.
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.562923798574103, "platformFee": 0.7604872997623507, "liquidityFee": 4.562923798574103} | 0 | 1648422909885 | 104.5629237985741 | dglid | 1648299282987 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.015178265827613977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40711789952661737 | l1tI82MtyaQ3MBWFxqgc | {"NO": 57.75657244421422, "YES": 2485.773503598331} | 0 | will-supreme-court-justice-clarence | 4143.793485953716 | Will Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas be impeached by July 31 2022 | 1659329940000 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5346443166582 | True | play | NO | public | 1648311515905 | Scott Owens | Resolved dependent on if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Justice Clarence Thomas. The market will not resolve dependent on the outcome of impeachment trial just weather or not Articles of impeachment pass the house.
Mar 27, 11:19am: For context: there have been calls for his impeachment in regards to his wife's political activities
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/25/1088720571/ginni-thomas-tex-messages-mark-meadows-2020-election
https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-march-leader-calls-for-the-impeachment-of-clarence-thomas-2022-3 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.751454578072597, "platformFee": 3.577406426558437, "liquidityFee": 21.46443855935063} | 0 | 1659344288372 | 213.72423724287063 | ScottOwens | 1659229834000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503125}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428734}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330759}] | ["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"] | 0.45 | 1659229833918 | 1648834075522 | 0.01570425447134718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5105605706367002 | vGKbQlKntfxpYcwbIe14 | {"NO": 205.52828498262176, "YES": 57.61302372133999} | 1 | did-taylor-hawkins-the-drummer-of-t | 261 | Did Taylor Hawkins, the drummer of the Foo Fighters die of drug related causes? | 1648452964128 | VWmPi3Ag4vSOHUKCIN86vbDkA7C2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.832734475251003 | True | play | YES | public | 1648312056769 | Chris Veenboer | On March 25, 2022, the Foo Fighters' official social media accounts announced that Hawkins, at age 50, with the cause of death being unconfirmed. He was reportedly found unresponsive in his hotel room at the Casa Medina hotel in Bogotá, Colombia The band was on tour in South America at the time of the announcement and was scheduled to perform at the Estéreo Picnic Festival in Bogotá that night
Mar 26, 10:24pm:
Drug, as in a chemical substance taken for recreational purposes or an overdose of a prescribed drug.
Alcohol also counts
Illegality is irrelevant.
If the cause is not know by market close it is N/A
Mar 28, 9:35am:
Seems pretty unambiguous: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/entertainment/taylor-hawkins-preliminary-toxicology-screening/index.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.709081535990973, "platformFee": 0.6181802559984956, "liquidityFee": 3.709081535990973} | 0 | 1648452964128 | 103.70908153599098 | ChrisVeenboer | 1648312056769 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqllhgldLly9aTwT2PMo_4RmcKEGinFk1pCL68eQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648373833683 | 0.7881956845433886 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie | of-the-purported-atmospheric-biosig | 645 | Of the purported atmospheric biosignatures that the James Webb Space Telescope will find amongst exoplanets over the next ~1 year, which one will NASA say is the most promising? | 1648417369842 | Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.68972631791806 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648319151392 | Hamish Todd | In the next year, JWST will be looking at the atmospheres of various planets. There will have been a few definitive detections of gases, and we'll be talking about whether they indicate the presence of life.
They'll be much debated. Suppose we find O2. Almost all the O2 in earth's atmosphere is produced by our plants photosynthesizing. But are there other ways to produce significant amounts of it? We'll have to study that. So there should be public statements on which ones are promising.
Consider this thread a way of pre-registering your beliefs about what chemicals constitute biosignatures!
Market closes in July 2023 because it may be trickled out. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648417369842 | 440 | HamishTodd | 1648319151392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c0fca66d1c76", "prob": 0.48674959437533805, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.56179347496602, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.31460223082528, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319151590, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.141", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 51.919956733369396, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b2b81d5e8fd5", "prob": 0.14458265729223005, "text": "O2", "index": 1, "poolNo": 11.095632154513273, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.646851088735, "textFts": "'o2':1", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319205388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.141", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 26.98876269454961, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6f65f2965ba", "prob": 0.0895979808905715, "text": "O3 (Ozone)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 4.122514102056045, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.888724779442704, "textFts": "'o3':1 'ozon':2", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319231957, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.137", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 13.141037197283822, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7cbd4e51e64c", "prob": 0.15305570578691186, "text": "CH4 (Methane)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 14.748047281168331, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 81.60933583854985, "textFts": "'ch4':1 'methan':2", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319251577, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.136", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 34.69262664503336, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "884a9e240384", "prob": 0.054804398774112126, "text": "N2O (Nitrous Oxide)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.4076380710671765, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.277126337517128, "textFts": "'n2o':1 'nitrous':2 'oxid':3", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319291012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.14", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 5.845802535905293, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ababd6beb8f9", "prob": 0.0712096628808365, "text": "CH3Cl (Methyl Chloride)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 2.103188865891592, "userId": "Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.43197224575565, "textFts": "'ch3cl':1 'chlorid':3 'methyl':2", "contractId": "HVZoUZaE7fbk8waHMEie", "createdTime": 1648319310976, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.14", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648417369000, "totalLiquidity": 7.595697373955893, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526551}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917920}] | ["science-default", "space"] | False | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8920887381741262 | jo5tBWRoH7CM4VWiA9kD | {"NO": 79.58703620968264, "YES": 110.98728252713421} | 0.855658825690379 | will-i-call-insurance-about-hrt-and | 289 | Will I call insurance about HRT and schedule blood draw testing by 4/2/22 | 1649454877062 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.865125747729284 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648322894202 | April | Resolves YES if I call insurance to make sure it covers hormone testing and then, assuming it does, schedule a blood draw, both by 11:59pm Pacific on 4/2.
Resolves NO if I fail to do so due to procrastination / phone call anxiety.
Resolves N/A if there’s some other unexpected obstacle.
I have been putting this off for months, but haven’t tried any sort of commitment mechanism to do it in the immediate future. I mostly expect this to work, since I think most of the issue was the fact that I could always do it some other time without it mattering much.
Close date updated to 2022-04-09 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.741473330125416, "platformFee": 0.623578888354236, "liquidityFee": 3.741473330125416} | 0 | 1649454877062 | 103.74147333012542 | April | 1648322894202 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.9 | 1649454871270 | 0.8539285633007379 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4650605028261002 | PdM0X6ibaDGOj0wAtVBf | {"NO": 33.587621367649334, "YES": 679.7765401166394} | 1 | will-the-post-countertheses-on-slee | 1563.613142076948 | Will the post "Counter-theses on Sleep" by Natália Mendonça be curated on LessWrong before April 11th? | 1648950189346 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.225204510194619 | True | play | YES | public | 1648331579886 | Matthew Barnett | This market resolves to YES if the following post is "curated" on LessWrong before April 11th Eastern Time, and resolves to NO otherwise.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbcmACvB6DqYXYidL/counter-theses-on-sleep
For a post to be curated, an administrator on LessWrong must think that the post is one of the best 2-3 posts during that week on the website. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.250404232662028, "platformFee": 2.8750673721103377, "liquidityFee": 17.250404232662028} | 0 | 1648950189346 | 116.59092835963584 | MatthewBarnett | 1648331579886 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0411862381868545 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4894861837837587 | YQa9UHqmmdLXVg3U970q | {"NO": 296.43147829353404, "YES": 4307.413454636059} | 1 | will-adam-face-enough-social-conseq | 4694 | Will Adam face enough social consequences for dishonorable resolution? | 1648402598451 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6388172420968536 | True | basic | YES | public | 1648341203210 | Gurkenglas | https://manifold.markets/Adam/will-this-market-have-m10000-invest-c5cfee65e218
Manifold discord:
ADAM: Let the chaos commence!
ADAM: I've made the argument here that people are too trusting of market creators on manifold
(...)
jbeshir: The market creator wasn't that random, anyways, they had an associated Discord account with standing in other servers to flush the personal credibility of at least. :P
ADAM: I'll be very surprised if I face any social consequences of this that I care about
Gurkenglas: you know what this means
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 7:25 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.738242505938544, "platformFee": 8.456373750989757, "liquidityFee": 50.738242505938544} | 0 | 1648402598451 | 1050.7382425059384 | Gurkenglas | 1648341203210 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648402784299 | 0.5665854564184398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21983413138009444 | 9KF0itUy6egaox4Gw5ta | {"NO": 123.1892327823173, "YES": 581.7421069623582} | 0 | will-either-russia-or-the-us-break | 523.7426118608221 | Will either Russia or the US break off diplomatic relations with the other during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.872909993880576 | True | play | NO | public | 1648373859555 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves Yes if either country expels the ambassador of the other during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4175474380100876, "platformFee": 0.569591239668348, "liquidityFee": 3.4175474380100876} | 0 | 1672540636665 | 203.4175474380101 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672484942299 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.5 | 1672484942189 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8061116307478801 | YVNxMwpBza6llkn99Liv | {"NO": 2280.271093609754, "YES": 42.505081468952085} | 1 | will-manifold-allow-links-to-be-emb | 7280.697737844439 | Will Manifold allow links to be embedded before 2024? | 1680417985423 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.125374952631028 | True | play | YES | public | 1648374029255 | Keepcalmandchill | This market resolves Yes if link embedding, i.e. adding a link into any string of characters, is enabled in Manifold Markets by 2024. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.911415000050833, "platformFee": 0.6519025000084722, "liquidityFee": 3.911415000050833} | 0 | 1680417985423 | 142.97587877584084 | Keepcalmandchill | 1680413246389 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 0.5 | 1680413246239 | 1680378002229 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24779324491947505 | rFDmThFTmkd9xh7zTJ7H | {"NO": 127.44438171496188, "YES": 2666.0846179905393} | 0 | will-australia-host-or-cohost-the-2 | 2757.170969061527 | Will Australia host or co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 1696516427749 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0.10964184034311454 | 2.386488005378162 | True | play | NO | public | 1648374313206 | Keepcalmandchill | Australia is co-hosting the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup with New Zealand and the 2032 Olympics will be held in Brisbane. A bid for the 2030 World Cup is believed to be in the works, with the decision on the host to be made during 2024. This question resolves to Yes if any city in Australia hosts a game as part of the 2030 FIFA World Cup. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.17978550565573, "platformFee": 0.4692419641952802, "liquidityFee": 2.815451785171681} | 0 | 1696516427749 | 336.4030815957641 | Keepcalmandchill | 1696516396384 | 1.1 | 21 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1671042707281}, {"name": "2030 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2030-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m4QAlVksIksvj5iN1Tk4", "createdTime": 1671042570111}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112327}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671042710444}] | ["australia", "2030-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "sports-default"] | 0.15195740394151364 | 0.5 | 1696434532555 | 1696516394656 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30576565285688506 | FRSreTU3keEEXXZWeDB2 | {"NO": 151.87055329832862, "YES": 50.87683796265392} | 0 | will-20m-or-more-viewers-watch-the | 225 | Will 20M or more viewers watch the Duke 2022 Final Four basketball game? | 1648958340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2203262265115375 | True | play | NO | public | 1648383190968 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if the average viewership reported for the 2022 men’s basketball tournament Final Four semi-final game on Saturday, April 2nd between Duke and either UNC or St. Peter’s is 20 million or greater according to Nielsen.
Legendary Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski plays for his last chance at a title while in his last year of coaching before retirement. His team will face either fellow blue blood rival #8 UNC or the biggest Cinderella story of all time, #15 St. Peter’s (opponent decided Sunday, March 27th).
20M would represent a higher viewership count than the last 3 championship games, the latest of which was 16.9 million for last year’s championship game: https://www.statista.com/statistics/244249/ncaa-basketball-march-madness-average-audience-per-game/
14.9 million viewers watched last year’s Final Four overtime thriller between Gonzaga and UCLA: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/06/ncaa-2021-final-four-championship-ratings-mens-down-14percent-womens-up.html
Apr 5, 9:27pm: Resolves at 18.5: https://apnews.com/article/march-madness-kansas-jayhawks-mens-basketball-entertainment-sports-arts-and-entertainment-d057c12d27a8cfb1aba49ad6cac3f2a1 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.402863797601328, "platformFee": 0.7338106329335546, "liquidityFee": 4.402863797601328} | 0 | 1649208438548 | 104.40286379760131 | dglid | 1648383190968 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1648954610094 | 0.5679838843829154 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd | what-goverment-will-form-after-the | 989.8121046538241 | What goverment will form after the next UK general election? | 1720133940000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 981097c555c7 | public | 1648387698996 | Tetra | Valid options:
* [Party] majority
* [Party] minority
* [Party A]/.../[Party Z] coalition | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4454647656589828, "platformFee": 0.4454647656589828, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720166869312 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1720133940000 | 0 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6ea52e531f3e", "prob": 6.721797890334146e-06, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.001168784902842579, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 173.87863568277922, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648387699818, "probChanges": {"day": 4.0657581468206416e-20, "week": 4.0657581468206416e-20, "month": -0.001993278202109666}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:04.802", "probChangeDay": 4.0657581468206416e-20, "probChangeWeek": 4.0657581468206416e-20, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 0.1688888888888889, "probChangeMonth": -0.001993278202109666}, {"id": "f97b574c8dd5", "prob": 0.008781424336408267, "text": "Conservative majority", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.3355767610192282, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 150.75555445579872, "textFts": "'conserv':1 'major':2", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648387719503, "probChanges": {"day": 2.6020852139652106e-17, "week": 2.6020852139652106e-17, "month": -0.010563223262871372}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:05.187", "probChangeDay": 2.6020852139652106e-17, "probChangeWeek": 2.6020852139652106e-17, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 3.954905731408282, "probChangeMonth": -0.010563223262871372}, {"id": "83c11e283e59", "prob": 0.001242430819838732, "text": "Conservative minority", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.23861829120135072, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 191.81898957812328, "textFts": "'conserv':1 'minor':2", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648387734719, "probChanges": {"day": 6.5052130349130266e-18, "week": 6.5052130349130266e-18, "month": -0.013090541311659083}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:04.802", "probChangeDay": 6.5052130349130266e-18, "probChangeWeek": 6.5052130349130266e-18, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 2.9302965246617756, "probChangeMonth": -0.013090541311659083}, {"id": "981097c555c7", "prob": 0.9769350765654105, "text": "Labour majority", "index": 3, "poolNo": 332.9676504963999, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.861191136564162, "textFts": "'labour':1 'major':2", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648387750964, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.08612385011404555}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:04.801", "probChangeDay": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 34.4538390837344, "probChangeMonth": 0.08612385011404555}, {"id": "9e84d10aaaaa", "prob": 0.007723647364046346, "text": "Labour minority", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.5765626000004527, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 202.5449522349941, "textFts": "'labour':1 'minor':2", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648387759492, "probChanges": {"day": 4.597017211338539e-17, "week": 4.597017211338539e-17, "month": -0.04260486824903016}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:04.803", "probChangeDay": 4.597017211338539e-17, "probChangeWeek": 4.597017211338539e-17, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 8.276244789705915, "probChangeMonth": -0.04260486824903016}, {"id": "f20401e92088", "prob": 2.3857748387382836e-05, "text": "Conservative/Lib dem coalition", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.004235450196222231, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 177.5250991479567, "textFts": "'coalit':3 'conservative/lib':1 'dem':2", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648470222320, "probChanges": {"day": 2.0328790734103208e-20, "week": 2.0328790734103208e-20, "month": -0.002019349113430022}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:04.802", "probChangeDay": 2.0328790734103208e-20, "probChangeWeek": 2.0328790734103208e-20, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 0.3359940172766399, "probChangeMonth": -0.002019349113430022}, {"id": "638ed01e1c6d", "prob": 0.00525577677502696, "text": "Labour/Lib dem coalition", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.7778586887139368, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.22285024739696, "textFts": "'coalit':3 'dem':2 'labour/lib':1", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648470238792, "probChanges": {"day": 2.2551405187698492e-17, "week": 2.2551405187698492e-17, "month": -0.01175568502406342}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:05.187", "probChangeDay": 2.2551405187698492e-17, "probChangeWeek": 2.2551405187698492e-17, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 2.797440384739307, "probChangeMonth": -0.01175568502406342}, {"id": "32463b479944", "prob": 1.3830052028164381e-05, "text": "Labour/SNP coalition", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.0024294565902215396, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 175.66260674674746, "textFts": "'coalit':2 'labour/snp':1", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1648470265857, "probChanges": {"day": 1.0164395367051604e-20, "week": 1.0164395367051604e-20, "month": -0.0019861699479718354}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:05.186", "probChangeDay": 1.0164395367051604e-20, "probChangeWeek": 1.0164395367051604e-20, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 0.24888888888888888, "probChangeMonth": -0.0019861699479718354}, {"id": "65937c68b77f", "prob": 1.723454096363742e-05, "text": "Labour/Lib dem/SNP coalition", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0030331381829786777, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 175.98878407227792, "textFts": "'coalit':3 'dem/snp':2 'labour/lib':1", "contractId": "3CLHOcnTbdnQfMi7QJWd", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 1650653949959, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1519648082658485e-19, "week": 1.1519648082658485e-19, "month": -0.0022262867190711608}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-28T16:44:05.186", "probChangeDay": 1.1519648082658485e-19, "probChangeWeek": 1.1519648082658485e-19, "resolutionTime": 1720166869312, "totalLiquidity": 0.2791937568043304, "probChangeMonth": -0.0022262867190711608}] | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468234}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031758386}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864868}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics", "us-politics"] | 1716070858409 | 1714641594561 | False | {"981097c555c7": 100} | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3096536200772973 | JcHWdAyv55YNH62JfVex | {"NO": 1018.716135284966, "YES": 929.5110515333502} | 0.32957687069316804 | if-boris-johnson-is-the-leader-of-t | 1290.9389675637378 | If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win? | 1720166132338 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.56751842982468 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1648388116424 | Tetra | This resolves N/A if Boris Johnson is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a plurality of the seats, and NO otherwise.
Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.221529689224868, "platformFee": 0.8168447724340967, "liquidityFee": 3.77126756906462} | 0 | 1720166132338 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1720166132338 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481235}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031754901}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 0.6 | 1713904528751 | 1720125698594 | 0.33 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15946166390503394 | XcdGM8g8Xt2vI5KxcbPG | {"NO": 394.9739767613919, "YES": 3062.3009061249695} | 0 | will-belarus-invade-ukraine-before | 4861.429524045444 | Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4535245455208776 | True | play | NO | public | 1648388655505 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10423/belarussian-invasion-of-ukraine-by-june-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.635865214299727, "platformFee": 3.9393108690499536, "liquidityFee": 23.635865214299727} | 0 | 1654101273139 | 523.5841633482689 | MetaculusBot | 1654050636600 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418597}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372182}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223972}] | ["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.16 | 1654050611826 | 1648845118577 | False | 0.023884738363531617 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3347692295449183 | xGNcRdi9NzedTpqHN7Br | {"NO": 207.50370400497877, "YES": 3425.065334855225} | 0 | will-russia-use-chemical-weapons-in | 6402.982853312408 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2182133103751505 | True | play | NO | public | 1648388703635 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10448/russian-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-ua-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.029930064810124, "platformFee": 6.788646651431915, "liquidityFee": 40.73187990859149} | 0 | 1673881428471 | 540.0002470027284 | MetaculusBot | 1671064861407 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 37 | [{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671064910944}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671064907148}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662317968854}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662317966322}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671064914857}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371009}] | ["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "metaculus"] | 0.32 | 1671064861149 | 1662318125795 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7094659942632701 | fwWWSDTk58P3QhZVQckF | {"NO": 2.239493137788546, "YES": 153.4790397369328} | 0 | will-michael-conforto-sign-before-o | 284 | Will Michael Conforto sign before opening day? | 1649307540000 | UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.112716564460594 | True | play | NO | public | 1648391337091 | CompmanJX3 | Market resolves YES if free agent Micheal Conforto has signed with an MLB team before opening day. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6497613212383605, "platformFee": 0.10829355353972675, "liquidityFee": 0.6497613212383605} | 0 | 1649417172268 | 50.64976132123837 | CompmanJX3 | 1648391337091 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg5dW4VK4ItyyQhhLNrn-zeOZaEztlvDd6IXd26=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.03440566709775278 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2954201797295281 | a1dex5bwF19qXJGSL7U7 | {"NO": 1489.7911972967236, "YES": 1210.6077973432357} | 0.340360187449707 | does-god-exist | 11954.59778020059 | Does God exist? | 4102441200000 | DTtzYEfgVKcxTfVa9DwkQhaQlH32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.276666119016054 | False | basic | public | 1648393591671 | Luca Petrolati | Buy "YES" if you believe the probability to be higher, buy "NO" otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": -0.039639812550293085, "week": -0.039639812550293085, "month": -0.006037581018787541} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.82595002138463, "platformFee": 21.361204320093808, "liquidityFee": 0.6838236134708598} | 96.57365251252422 | 1460.6243366026094 | LucaPetrolati | 1720213130523 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZeCl7yfsj0jv3bJGwxHMCADrEln3hDMIRn0Soaw=s96-c | 5 | 128 | 2 | 50 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1673890892295}, {"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1662255502183}, {"name": "No resolution", "slug": "no-resolution", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "C06T5cKa32YfIZD4Jfhv", "createdTime": 1674571087211}, {"name": "jskf's blocked markets", "slug": "jskfs-blocked-markets", "groupId": "f8ab4c63-8686-4a36-ae42-d62d570a6f1a", "createdTime": 1691233395879}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1704681244801}] | ["philosophy", "religion", "no-resolution", "jskfs-blocked-markets", "nonpredictive"] | 0.13618563925170468 | 0.01 | False | True | 1720213127214 | 1719083983495 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3 | which-team-will-win-the-prometheus | 108745 | Which team will win the Prometheus Science Bowl tournament? | 1648422158398 | ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615801222738687 | True | basic | 6608348eb3bd | public | 1648398992565 | Devansh | https://prometheus.science/schedule
I will choose the answer by the team that is on the First Place section of that form at midnight PDT on Sunday, March 27, 2022. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1857.101030495024, "platformFee": 464.275257623756, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648422158398 | 4080.0000000000014 | Devansh | 1648398992565 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c | 88 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5f951e34caa4", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648398992749, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:36.493", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6608348eb3bd", "prob": 0.49964067472995555, "text": "Lexington High School", "index": 1, "poolNo": 684.6262278296433, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 685.6109495171935, "textFts": "'high':2 'lexington':1 'school':3", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399040738, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:36.494", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 685.1184117557024, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9b90e7441ba2", "prob": 0.05315746387084952, "text": "Lynbrook", "index": 2, "poolNo": 7.215871099981649, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.5293389708601, "textFts": "'lynbrook':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399065738, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:37.237", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 30.454082527299594, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d0a0f65a70b6", "prob": 0.014542307404400231, "text": "Centennial", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.44677139382587844, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.275409165408742, "textFts": "'centenni':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399075495, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:37.237", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 3.6777964532418648, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "151d4cbc5af0", "prob": 0.04748856756177324, "text": "Ames", "index": 4, "poolNo": 8.195465493847381, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 164.3821866576247, "textFts": "'ame':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399165121, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:33.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 36.70406705742216, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1aad5dbe210b", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Dougherty Valley", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'dougherti':1 'valley':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399513837, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:34.773", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e79677d04cc2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Wayzata", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'wayzata':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399524395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e6f30c3790b1", "prob": 0.02315114340747545, "text": "Dulles A", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1.4716117857561501, "userId": "W814lzD11GR5HQaoQ19VyggutK93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.093792300547854, "textFts": "'dull':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399550112, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:36.04", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 9.55918179405438, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1740f82c4b06", "prob": 0.03576604164549793, "text": "MIDDLETON TO THE MOON", "index": 8, "poolNo": 5.0484927726157, "userId": "kMXZ3PtUZcfwLuASLVwHYdTwFqS2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 136.1047503694355, "textFts": "'middleton':1 'moon':4", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399637943, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.015", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 26.21304729631332, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "37bef98c1aea", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Brookfield", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.015480422828078261, "userId": "jLTXzQF8eggiIm3aeLqXD940hKY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.724730991211053, "textFts": "'brookfield':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399745177, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:36.66", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.34580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "02130c45da3b", "prob": 0.04243571368745113, "text": "Brookfield", "index": 10, "poolNo": 4.04593321550686, "userId": "jLTXzQF8eggiIm3aeLqXD940hKY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.29671249339052, "textFts": "'brookfield':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399761992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:36.658", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 19.219271618445607, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e607e1a7541d", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Blair", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.019061714676365023, "userId": "8hRsm15BgPge7PzFb24rRIcmVi23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.511795623506147, "textFts": "'blair':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399785501, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.212", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.42580645161290326, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a902849a2c36", "prob": 0.006726142356237227, "text": "Jonas Clarke", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.07356141959454544, "userId": "8hRsm15BgPge7PzFb24rRIcmVi23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.863081859495601, "textFts": "'clark':2 'jona':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648399797910, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8939260163773347, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0696a29327c", "prob": 0.03994726854713251, "text": "Jay Sarva", "index": 13, "poolNo": 2.3867517222546226, "userId": "G20mCyDsxTMqrhdIXbTP0mbwK9B3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 57.36080572184374, "textFts": "'jay':1 'sarva':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400102232, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 11.700683819611713, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "93d3ae788fbf", "prob": 0.002, "text": "foothill high school 😎", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.008317839131504738, "userId": "8hRsm15BgPge7PzFb24rRIcmVi23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.150601726620864, "textFts": "'foothil':1 'high':2 'school':3", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400133730, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:34.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "25959761a1a2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "devansh pandey", "index": 15, "poolNo": 0.008317839131504738, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.150601726620864, "textFts": "'devansh':1 'pandey':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400348944, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:34.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ed8ed2b79161", "prob": 0.002, "text": "the friends we made along the way", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.008317839131504738, "userId": "doPzGFxtj0WjVGRZjqZl5C4a1Uf1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.150601726620864, "textFts": "'along':5 'friend':2 'made':4 'way':7", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400376764, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:34.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cf29a20e6507", "prob": 0.021694128907077892, "text": "Suck Mira Lomas Nuts", "index": 17, "poolNo": 1.7215686434615058, "userId": "GBgOCLZ52NQJ0eC46hGBUDec1ru1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 77.63486234464007, "textFts": "'loma':3 'mira':2 'nut':4 'suck':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400444538, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:35.668", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 11.560871275642798, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a7cd091b762", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Mira Loma", "index": 18, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'loma':2 'mira':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400505511, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:37.162", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1347836c2546", "prob": 0.003939177988696812, "text": "enloe", "index": 19, "poolNo": 0.04283202165810894, "userId": "BY6SLjGY2mQcgxs8yaFYYEfkzQd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.83050799522164, "textFts": "'enlo':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400551608, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:37.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6810965812714488, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "66ed143facf6", "prob": 0.002, "text": "The spiciest memelord", "index": 20, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'memelord':3 'spiciest':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400624339, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:28.075", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "193570d93fba", "prob": 0.002, "text": "We all win, because we've all learned about longtermism and are ready to save the world", "index": 21, "poolNo": 0.008317839131504738, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.150601726620864, "textFts": "'learn':8 'longterm':10 'readi':13 'save':15 've':6 'win':3 'world':17", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400680297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:34.268", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "64c110363296", "prob": 0.13264050585811601, "text": "yea geoff u love to pee", "index": 22, "poolNo": 40.090346125743494, "userId": "yu5p8YQUuCfcZZ9do3jxAdQdLfH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 262.15779343297976, "textFts": "'geoff':2 'love':4 'pee':6 'u':3 'yea':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648400847784, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:28.075", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 102.5182748503374, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c49ee972d56e", "prob": 0.007305673072993322, "text": "At least one of these teams winning", "index": 23, "poolNo": 0.05822551983071447, "userId": "jLTXzQF8eggiIm3aeLqXD940hKY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.9116794087042255, "textFts": "'least':2 'one':3 'team':6 'win':7", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648401873325, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:08.156", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6787205951684119, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fae65eb573ef", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Sussus amogus", "index": 24, "poolNo": 0.008317839131504738, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.150601726620864, "textFts": "'amogus':2 'sussus':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648402148381, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:08.241", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.18580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "563492d09874", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Odle", "index": 25, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "hsb2QES0aDQw0nrb7RZx0PgeH5z1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'odl':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648403804441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:13.251", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "556283f36033", "prob": 0.015709459390855388, "text": "Mira Loma", "index": 26, "poolNo": 0.2637641251785081, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.526382411120984, "textFts": "'loma':2 'mira':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648405087352, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:07.989", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0878378287201356, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "386d04767629", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Mira Loma", "index": 27, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'loma':2 'mira':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648405400843, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:09.019", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b6731fb6f95d", "prob": 0.002, "text": "The longtermism-industrial complex", "index": 28, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'complex':5 'industri':4 'longterm':3 'longtermism-industri':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648406952379, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:14.675", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6b2e7dca6042", "prob": 0.023855731571487748, "text": "MSJ", "index": 29, "poolNo": 0.19729417311499742, "userId": "DpJB4Br6HXhjCA4A5IvKAT1GtOg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.073010701995285, "textFts": "'msj':1", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648417084517, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:12.492", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 1.2620451541045132, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b6357ed6d0e4", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Charles Ponzi", "index": 30, "poolNo": 0.004736547283217975, "userId": "T4zQgRfYawS86ZJsJ7WSPJ5joLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.3635370943257703, "textFts": "'charl':1 'ponzi':2", "contractId": "88CkJ0k9FE58VQFpNyL3", "createdTime": 1648421814150, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:31:13.826", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648422158000, "totalLiquidity": 0.10580645161290324, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457422}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012913}] | ["science-bowl", "sports-default"] | 1648422004497 | False | {"6608348eb3bd": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw | what-two-teams-will-represent-the-f | 2054 | What two teams will represent the finals bracket of Prometheus Science Bowl? | 1648423224186 | ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.648199546066181 | True | play | e5c2004dbce8 | public | 1648406892677 | Devansh | This market will resolve based on the teams in the finals bracket of Prometheus Science Bowl after the semifinals match has concluded. All valid answers MUST be in the form (A,B) where A and B are the two teams that have made it to finals. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.846843730139867, "platformFee": 4.211710932534967, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648423224186 | 420 | Devansh | 1648406892677 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "46a5e03ee9cf", "prob": 0.0009168290087273464, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0024996212421480365, "userId": "ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.7238770731621553, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648406892967, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.058", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08251461078546117, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5c2004dbce8", "prob": 0.8965865097141879, "text": "lex and ames", "index": 1, "poolNo": 51.51441007200208, "userId": "KnND0qDuwgNJU0Q7dMmxNzh79gb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.941741134671491, "textFts": "'ame':3 'lex':1", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648407548307, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.466", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 17.495293348588074, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1df863060546", "prob": 0.10199666127708473, "text": "Brookfield, Lexington", "index": 2, "poolNo": 4.468721718018349, "userId": "rD5kj28BXhgikq7hE7AJfaYpIDP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.343709611264025, "textFts": "'brookfield':1 'lexington':2", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648407667088, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.464", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 13.259565966021015, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f7d1bf6e1a7c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Lexington and Brookfield", "index": 3, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'brookfield':3 'lexington':1", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648413103582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.466", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2a6cd3808af5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Lexington and Lynbrook", "index": 4, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'lexington':1 'lynbrook':3", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648413116449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.464", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fcef9242a520", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Brookfield and Lynbrook", "index": 5, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'brookfield':1 'lynbrook':3", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648413178625, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.466", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "60095d6d14ef", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Brookfield and Ames", "index": 6, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'ame':3 'brookfield':1", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648413186487, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.464", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a2f41c7c253a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Brookfield and Ames", "index": 7, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'ame':3 'brookfield':1", "contractId": "lSWrdl7p0RTPBQaYpEhw", "createdTime": 1648415194288, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:13.464", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648423224000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457656}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1691182012886}] | ["science-bowl", "sports-default"] | False | {"e5c2004dbce8": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08237388486385999 | WefViJlgS3K9ASSz2lFD | {"NO": 974.8792342600891, "YES": 1009.7445905239842} | 0.07975645592456049 | will-roman-empire-produce-more-than | 544.4237109976431 | Will Roman Empire produce more than 10% of world GDP in 2100? | 4134049140000 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.34123324162033 | False | basic | public | 1648418745131 | JuJumper | Mar 29, 11:14pm: an entity called Roman Empire, which is a sovereign state, or as close to sovereign state as possible in year 2100, produces more than 10% of Earth GDP according to the official sources (whatever they are at the time). | BINARY | {"day": -9.71445146547012e-17, "week": -9.71445146547012e-17, "month": -9.71445146547012e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.37533500759323335, "platformFee": 0.058972537637667764, "liquidityFee": 0.3538352258260065} | 0 | 1000 | JuJumper | 1709810170404 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490580}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571238}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 0.02 | 1709810170257 | 1648684389148 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF | what-will-i-do-during-my-week-in-ne | 337 | What will I do during my week in New York? | 1649185200000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.753270855322077 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648432624498 | Em ✨ | So many things could happen. I'm taking suggestions. And warnings. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.999999999999998, "platformFee": 1.7499999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649207185179 | 719.9999999999998 | hamnox | 1648432624498 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "89c408abff7e", "prob": 0.007924697760832622, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.050124057277805535, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.274919343814523, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648432624674, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.835", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5608247646127702, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b613b47b5fe8", "prob": 0.005538483212848578, "text": "MOMA", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.04578375559267461, "userId": "UgbQZTrZTubJUDK0Q1FJ4zzqxPH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.220695320567042, "textFts": "'moma':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648435856666, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6134935251155348, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a84ddb2f34f0", "prob": 0.00713222798474936, "text": "Guggenheim ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.06695935452924044, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.321320811558794, "textFts": "'guggenheim':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648460216591, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7900314075414676, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "824ac3382946", "prob": 0.03909517562010759, "text": "Walk thru central park", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.8197950025483942, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.728020007455804, "textFts": "'central':3 'park':4 'thru':2 'walk':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648475796104, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 9.021963604640215, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aae2c301cb9c", "prob": 0.03018429324903803, "text": "Have sex", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5898560664085067, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.951965288885457, "textFts": "'sex':2", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648652111813, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 3.343490944508828, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7f4430afd849", "prob": 0.0008364958747545544, "text": "Kiss babies", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0017128601247549781, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.0459483136468046, "textFts": "'babi':2 'kiss':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648760053841, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.059198169598014626, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "51742d09a568", "prob": 0.15617818242654247, "text": "Catch Covid", "index": 6, "poolNo": 10.130196983822342, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.73287688750425, "textFts": "'catch':1 'covid':2", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648760080302, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.005", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 23.546864427386403, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aec6b501ed7f", "prob": 0.012327307627961857, "text": "Walk the High Line", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.0974631183867432, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.808814661658997, "textFts": "'high':3 'line':4 'walk':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648797186611, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8723940782865315, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e3d04438c547", "prob": 0.12235733342725565, "text": "Eat at Veselka", "index": 8, "poolNo": 5.060638104043882, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.298861668420116, "textFts": "'eat':1 'veselka':3", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648797360364, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 13.553427702711396, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a9ff61c9d36c", "prob": 0.45611918745432284, "text": "Ride the subway", "index": 9, "poolNo": 79.6845221550032, "userId": "WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.0165742837057, "textFts": "'ride':1 'subway':3", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648797418601, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 87.01350652974774, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d618a4e9d15", "prob": 0.12921659960024304, "text": "Get food from a halal cart", "index": 10, "poolNo": 3.522628678978407, "userId": "vb14aPLuuuR82n26sAgR7a9WZPD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.73879663229237, "textFts": "'cart':6 'food':2 'get':1 'halal':5", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648838895439, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 9.144559356324892, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8308708f2df2", "prob": 0.02716410288018737, "text": "Leave New York", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.3212312082665845, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.504346455145974, "textFts": "'leav':1 'new':2 'york':3", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1648864267212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.004", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9223826653671063, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "55c685775e11", "prob": 0.005925912881155948, "text": "Visit at least 7 friends", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.032379340008856915, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.431646314472379, "textFts": "'7':4 'friend':5 'least':3 'visit':1", "contractId": "4fPxkeb1ncdc9czODoQF", "createdTime": 1649134093594, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:02.003", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649207185000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4193722962048825, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1648864294080 | {"8308708f2df2": 3.9501999812870805, "a9ff61c9d36c": 90.08810028733723, "aae2c301cb9c": 5.96169973137569} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.663691774000603 | jgu5VO1EzsE5w0Ks43aa | {"NO": 3.0296130184653833, "YES": 521.559917073418} | 0 | will-chris-rock-charge-will-smith-w | 937 | Will Chris Rock charge Will Smith with physical assault before May 1st? | 1651377540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.835152961036136 | True | play | NO | public | 1648436817535 | David Glidden | Resolves YES if Chris Rock charges Will Smith with physical assault prior to May 1st, 2022 in response to Will Smith slapping Chris Rock at the 2022 Oscars.
Mar 28, 6:47am: specifically, will he press charges. (Authorities would be the ones doing the charging.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7845652485037147, "platformFee": 0.6307608747506191, "liquidityFee": 3.7845652485037147} | 0 | 1651400776012 | 103.78456524850372 | dglid | 1648436817535 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1648455582790 | 0.011333439762162313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14589100480911585 | zkXOsd6QL1611lA13NB5 | {"NO": 76.2270606419795, "YES": 1304.243640145918} | 0 | will-will-smith-be-arrested-before | 2209 | Will Will Smith be arrested before May 1st for slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars? | 1651377540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.830897471637218 | True | play | NO | public | 1648436988039 | David Glidden | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.613280273834762, "platformFee": 1.2688800456391272, "liquidityFee": 7.613280273834762} | 0 | 1651400745674 | 107.61328027383475 | dglid | 1648436988039 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 1651363431972 | 0.009884428318965185 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06232344764498867 | wiUbtFeU6isK9xdnadCr | {"NO": 256.653587448181, "YES": 694.60473639952} | 0 | will-will-smith-attend-the-2023-osc | 1540.20482652356 | Will Will Smith attend the 2023 Oscars in person? | 1678647600000 | clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.42295860817208 | True | play | NO | public | 1648446285219 | Raven Kopelman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-12 12:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6205689629801279, "platformFee": 0.10342816049668799, "liquidityFee": 0.6205689629801279} | 0 | 1679066482055 | 280.4993731649713 | RavenKopelman | 1678646115633 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg55dHNRTFGTLkKUIqZ8LYwnKDlljtkFxJmMgu4iA=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1666378528600}] | ["oscars-2023"] | 0.1 | 1678646115529 | 1649472435815 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4995778047130686 | gCfkRshnSUf4lnERXBPQ | {"NO": 85.06355142298693, "YES": 119.91803278688525} | 0.41457150270560045 | will-smith-will-be-higher-than-ukra | 20 | Will Smith will be higher than Ukraine on Google Trends on April 1st | 1648453755302 | oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7677847003055867 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648453342897 | hawkebia | Will resolve based on the earliest April 1st data point on this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=IN&q=will%20smith,ukraine
Mar 28, 1:17pm: Sorry, Resolved based on worldwide trends link instead: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=will%20smith,ukraine | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246} | 0 | 1648453755302 | 100.49180327868852 | hawkebia | 1648453342897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498886}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 0.41457150270560045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4452725784329357 | 74LuwLryRXsPc4dfTFvp | {"NO": 42.51439118869092, "YES": 142.63973682508257} | 1 | will-smith-will-be-higher-than-ukra-5c12c6f95439 | 690.301169283739 | Will Smith will be higher than Ukraine on Google Trends on April 1st | 1648708260000 | oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6742267967814533 | True | play | YES | public | 1648453901066 | hawkebia | Will resolve based on the earliest April 1st data point on this link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=will%20smith,ukraine
Mar 28: Currently at [Will Smith: 26, Unkraine: 3]
Mar 29: [Will Smith: 16, Ukraine: 2]
Mar 31: Increasing granularity: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&q=will%20smith,ukraine
[Will Smith: 68, Ukraine: 32]
Apr 1: Many have underestimated Will Power [Will Smith: 89, Ukraine: 46]
For those curious, this was resolved using wordlwide data at April 1 00:00 GMT.
For United States data at April 1 00:00 EST, it is still will power:
[Will Smith: 67, Ukraine: 34] | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.047547575959243, "platformFee": 1.8412579293265405, "liquidityFee": 11.047547575959243} | 0 | 1648786408498 | 60.72972367560481 | hawkebia | 1648453901066 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c | 26 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471587}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1648568849899 | 0.19305666158105475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05060711721826286 | hEv1A3v4IYljTXSVEf3f | {"NO": 96.34017957917436, "YES": 429.789961539179} | 0 | will-the-academy-strip-will-smith-o | 588.5022870176557 | Will the Academy strip Will Smith of his Best Actor Oscar by May 1st for slapping Chris Rock? | 1651377540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.940780968787852 | True | play | NO | public | 1648466311131 | David Glidden | https://nypost.com/2022/03/28/could-will-smith-lose-his-oscar-over-chris-rock-slap/amp/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9058869516455712, "platformFee": 0.3176478252742619, "liquidityFee": 1.9058869516455712} | 0 | 1651400734946 | 101.8552124016922 | dglid | 1648466311131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1648497565089 | 0.011807511023802347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | jDQniK5o09H4doDTFNiw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-tiger-woods-play-in-the-2022-m | 0 | Will Tiger Woods play in the 2022 Masters? | 1648613518818 | y8JOgKkc3Rhiw5jiphMhJbtD5az2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.888113252333106 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648478851393 | Nathan Braun | Resolves to YES if Tiger plays the first round of the Masters on 4/7/2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648613518818 | 100 | NathanBraun | 1648478851393 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh9zR53v96E8a6jPfvilnDMeQP9Nmgrj4o7dxx1VFg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406555}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7539790230994395 | 3S8XMZeyknkmQm3hPYI8 | {"NO": 1061.9487861397454, "YES": 972.1377507405771} | 0.7699999999999997 | a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c | 611.4417451689374 | A market for the public impact of charities exists by 2025 | 1727852340000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2164886150320671 | 9.605519497615745 | False | basic | public | 1648485906269 | Sinclair Chen | An impact certificate represents the total public good that an organization creates.
Slices of this impact certificate may be distributed to funders and employees in a similar manner to how stocks are distributed in private-good startups and companies currently.
Regardless, this question asks if a secondary market for slices of impact will exist.
If the market doesn't exist, this will definitely resolve NO. If the market has > $1 million daily volume, or has produced at least one unicorn (organization valued > $1 billion), this will definitely resolve YES. If it kinda exists but doesn't hit those metrics, I'll ask my EA friends whether they think it exists and resolve this market according to what they say. | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.634009733276066, "platformFee": 0.5174130203249702, "liquidityFee": 3.1044781219498208} | 0 | 1000 | Sinclair | 1699719014401 | 2.2 | 27 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589489}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.13358154688047905 | 0.5 | 1699719013159 | 1686341039021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n | which-five-organizations-will-have | 391.2765329471314 | Which five organizations will have the highest public impact on Jan 1, 2025, if a market for impact exist? | 1733043600000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1648486246203 | Sinclair Chen | If https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c resolves to yes, which organizations will be the most valuable?
This will resolve to the top 5 orgs in the impact market, proportional to their valuations
Close date updated to 2024-12-01 1:00 am
Apr 12, 7:40pm: #7 will not be selected as an answer | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1641266795629682, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Sinclair | 1717601255897 | 1.1 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3729c9d0284a", "prob": 0.07355462243799579, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.025632476462523, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 138.87157467400283, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486246356, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9362954419990983, "week": -0.9362954419990983, "month": -0.9362954419990983}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.587", "probChangeDay": -0.9362954419990983, "probChangeWeek": -0.9362954419990983, "totalLiquidity": 5.733410220081138, "probChangeMonth": -0.9362954419990983}, {"id": "b1960b344724", "prob": 0.037950222213660054, "text": "Manifold Markets", "index": 1, "poolNo": 6.211208466236034, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 157.45604047019657, "textFts": "'manifold':1 'market':2", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486261173, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09954908391183404, "week": -0.09954908391183404, "month": -0.09954908391183404}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.587", "probChangeDay": -0.09954908391183404, "probChangeWeek": -0.09954908391183404, "totalLiquidity": 6.25310881969362, "probChangeMonth": -0.09954908391183404}, {"id": "a0e3924cb827", "prob": 0.3082701044305485, "text": "GiveWell", "index": 2, "poolNo": 116.13009827989777, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 260.5853100936094, "textFts": "'givewel':1", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486278188, "probChanges": {"day": -0.025732911128816482, "week": -0.025732911128816482, "month": -0.025732911128816482}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.589", "probChangeDay": -0.025732911128816482, "probChangeWeek": -0.025732911128816482, "totalLiquidity": 89.09222722583945, "probChangeMonth": -0.025732911128816482}, {"id": "697818f01b12", "prob": 0.002083231282725343, "text": "MIRI", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.2700985687422297, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 129.38356542044238, "textFts": "'miri':1", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486334308, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02558487654320987, "week": -0.02558487654320987, "month": -0.02558487654320987}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:41", "probChangeDay": -0.02558487654320987, "probChangeWeek": -0.02558487654320987, "totalLiquidity": 0.18, "probChangeMonth": -0.02558487654320987}, {"id": "72ecad76ee86", "prob": 0.3016964881241672, "text": "Against Malaria Foundation", "index": 4, "poolNo": 96.01069061808285, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.225332661606, "textFts": "'foundat':3 'malaria':2", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648486422352, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04892913518882441, "week": -0.04892913518882441, "month": -0.04892913518882441}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.587", "probChangeDay": -0.04892913518882441, "probChangeWeek": -0.04892913518882441, "totalLiquidity": 62.61602060147117, "probChangeMonth": -0.04892913518882441}, {"id": "e559b3fd9a17", "prob": 0.03147373082512325, "text": "FTX Future Fund", "index": 5, "poolNo": 6.6367743981867235, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 204.23032728297324, "textFts": "'ftx':1 'fund':3 'futur':2", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648506881872, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09219239939374592, "week": -0.09219239939374592, "month": -0.09219239939374592}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-18T05:56:17.986", "probChangeDay": -0.09219239939374592, "probChangeWeek": -0.09219239939374592, "totalLiquidity": 6.78100910518989, "probChangeMonth": -0.09219239939374592}, {"id": "5517f1854549", "prob": 0.24288951462570962, "text": "Open Philanthropy", "index": 6, "poolNo": 80.15280774560296, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 249.8441782054689, "textFts": "'open':1 'philanthropi':2", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648506942477, "probChanges": {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.589", "probChangeDay": 4.440892098500626e-16, "probChangeWeek": 4.440892098500626e-16, "totalLiquidity": 69.57853764463746, "probChangeMonth": 4.440892098500626e-16}, {"id": "7f83999f9b07", "prob": 0.0020820860600702625, "text": "An organization not listed as an option by the time this market closes (April 5, 2022)", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.2736783590936269, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 131.17062855125153, "textFts": "'2022':16 '5':15 'april':14 'close':13 'list':4 'market':12 'option':7 'organ':2 'time':10", "contractId": "5yQDQLyfjn5r9L8A8q5n", "createdTime": 1648539721392, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0020000000000000096, "week": 0.0020000000000000096, "month": 0.0020000000000000096}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-20T19:45:40.59", "probChangeDay": 0.0020000000000000096, "probChangeWeek": 0.0020000000000000096, "totalLiquidity": 0.26, "probChangeMonth": 0.0020000000000000096}] | 9 | 0.12950071635510396 | 1717601252691 | 1684935173122 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4851302002546441 | jpaXi8CQRA9j8rYgB0aa | {"NO": 2910.00974763241, "YES": 35.63523362118708} | 1 | will-the-supreme-court-uphold-the-n | 5033.074719312029 | Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause? | 1683829405494 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6657077591622453 | True | play | YES | public | 1648487179878 | Tetra | The National Pork Producers Council & American Farm Bureau Federation is challenging California's Proposition 12, which limits pork sales in the state unless the pig was raised in certain humane conditions, in the Supreme Court.
Petition: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/193744/20210927102549231_NPPC%20v%20Ross%20Petition%20for%20Cert%20PDFA.pdf
News article on the matter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-consider-law-regulating-pigs-are-raised-rcna20665
This resolves YES if Prop 12 is found to be constitutional in this case, and NO if it's found to be unconstitutional in this case. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4407934539067314, "platformFee": 0.06105005889316212, "liquidityFee": 0.3663003533589727} | 0 | 1683829405494 | 360.36630035335895 | Tetraspace | 1683828220509 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428583}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330744}, {"name": "Court cases", "slug": "court-cases", "userId": "LWRrUOgsKFPT0ItXQqYDqqsUVSX2", "groupId": "ilQEa8qtQ0UUcM8uTMkB", "createdTime": 1681144111147}] | ["law-order", "scotus", "court-cases"] | 0.5 | 1683828220395 | 1683389564792 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5995000409629188 | VFUljkx5oWarbFgGdJ2p | {"NO": 46.530050068876534, "YES": 1447.0671198649147} | 0 | will-the-ukraine-control-kherson-on | 3976.940115319216 | Will the Ukraine control Kherson on June 1st? | 1654153140000 | AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.080328185698006 | True | play | NO | public | 1648495861096 | Lawrence | Suggested Zvi at: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/
Russia currently occupies the Ukrainian city of Kherson, however, some preliminary reports suggest that they may be losing control of it to the Ukrainian millitary: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/599799-pentagon-russia-has-lost-partial-control-of-first-captured-ukrainian-city
This market resolves yes if, as of the time the market closes, Ukraine controls the majority of raions in Kherson, as judged using reputable media reports and reports from the Ukrainian/Russian governments. The market resolves no if Russian controls the majority of raions. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.415580458887334, "platformFee": 6.069263409814559, "liquidityFee": 36.415580458887334} | 0 | 1654262795575 | 336.4155804588874 | Lawrence2 | 1654233259787 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy8YxZ09zYcT9I0yPCQMTRb_zJvMzJ5oEyLPjBxJA=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662853451388}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662853449418}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662853445545}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662853444494}, {"name": "Ukraine Counteroffensive", "slug": "ukraine-counteroffensive", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2i6fbccCzqrKyYbLXRrG", "createdTime": 1662853453759}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222182}] | ["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.65 | 1653787818155 | 1654233258551 | False | 0.0459214625658342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12606608010654724 | i0JpkIYSZoac2TQ4WhC0 | {"NO": 916.4257120245745, "YES": 910.5422852375198} | 0.12677738117346096 | will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio | 416.9975700163057 | Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025? | 1735718400000 | AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2 | cpmm-1 | 9.234575511739943e-16 | 10.062775383168422 | False | basic | public | 1648496529848 | Lawrence | Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064)
This question resolves yes if a territory containing 1 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025.
Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea
Also consult this list of Republics of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia
Note that the Republic of Chechnya currently has >1m people.
As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/ | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4624538226551635, "platformFee": 0.7052757797870312, "liquidityFee": 4.231654678722186} | 0 | 1000 | Lawrence2 | 1694324025411 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy8YxZ09zYcT9I0yPCQMTRb_zJvMzJ5oEyLPjBxJA=s96-c | 0 | 21 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929564}] | ["global-macro"] | 0.09738016811821912 | 0.1 | 1694324025123 | 1648520980164 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.