p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.14636349487085198 | Lip2RdUC5vDGqm0VR2S8 | {"NO": 23.415954895727932, "YES": 138.75684850294675} | 0 | will-we-get-to-level-5-self-driving | 440.3151332769607 | Will we get to Level 5 self driving before Dec 31 2023? | 1704095940000 | 79jzJCFKaMNIOjI1vFmKKjv5uWU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.471799672419744 | True | play | NO | public | 1648509249760 | Auren Hoffman | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1757018108057204, "platformFee": 0.36261696846762004, "liquidityFee": 2.1757018108057204} | 0 | 1704283131002 | 31.93540645663604 | AurenHoffman | 1704283131163 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gha527i-4silo4Esu_Gszzy6oix9oiHtvQCR6cNwA=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039684}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130917465}] | ["selfdriving-vehicles", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1701584187366 | 1697233563569 | 0.03 | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.034256371769233185 | YF9vOTiMEiu7H9dDCKCg | {"NO": 279.8383311560022, "YES": 123.57067792219605} | 0.07435588213806663 | will-a-territory-with-over-10-milli | 97.11835544881473 | Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025? | 1735718400000 | AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1648510294164 | Lawrence | Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064)
This question resolves yes if a territory containing 10 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025.
Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea
It's also worth nothing that the population of Russia is currently ~146 mllion (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/), and no single Russian republic contains >5m people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia
See also the same question, but for territories with >1m people instead: https://manifold.markets/LawrenceChan/will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio
As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3532930836735146, "platformFee": 0.2255488472789192, "liquidityFee": 1.3532930836735146} | 0 | 271.3532930836735 | Lawrence2 | 1680319235836 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy8YxZ09zYcT9I0yPCQMTRb_zJvMzJ5oEyLPjBxJA=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929565}] | ["global-macro"] | 0.03 | 1680319235740 | 1648520699812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.651725458394844 | 5EFXIr7QBKuvCdSl7iYb | {"NO": 111.87187388629305, "YES": 35.03212764098862} | 1 | did-stalin-die-of-natural-cause | 87 | Did Stalin die of natural cause? | 1649170740000 | g7JA0Fei6KUxSdwQiP5Uhq20U4t2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.853993320402163 | True | play | YES | public | 1648517561878 | Tao Sumer | Joseph Stalin, second leader of the Soviet Union, died on 5 March 1953 at the Kuntsevo Dacha, aged 74. He was given a state funeral, with four days of national mourning declared. According to the BBC, "his last days continue to provoke speculation and argument. [...] Fifty years on, the rumours of intrigues and conspiracies continue". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2440106886114246, "platformFee": 0.2073351147685708, "liquidityFee": 1.2440106886114246} | 0 | 1650539145951 | 51.24401068861143 | TaoSumer | 1648517561878 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 1648848448078 | 0.8566476341721612 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010026591863524252 | TYzEXH6etJqRw18msNWM | {"NO": 140.81039483568756, "YES": 133.1784214777266} | 0 | will-i-get-the-ftx-blog-prize | 197.89771936606024 | Will I get the FTX blog prize? | 1673112186167 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.395804723273763 | True | play | NO | public | 1648523661701 | Ozy Brennan | I recommend only investing in this if you know which blog my blog is. Commenters, please don't publicly violate my paper-thin disguise, thank you. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3742225075066973, "platformFee": 0.06237041791778288, "liquidityFee": 0.3742225075066973} | 0 | 1673112186167 | 140.37182022553333 | ozymandias272 | 1670287912653 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0.01 | 1670287912481 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.050233704759799255 | N17IyB4Ou9ttYhXP2MMs | {"NO": 106.93833002568039, "YES": 32.55313489212331} | 0 | will-i-get-in-the-openphil-comms-fe | 7 | Will I get in the OpenPhil comms fellowship? | 1651260935407 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.52183004173996 | True | play | NO | public | 1648523717174 | Ozy Brennan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3700198459177466, "platformFee": 0.06166997431962445, "liquidityFee": 0.3700198459177466} | 0 | 1651260935407 | 100.37001984591775 | ozymandias272 | 1648523717174 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.14802814104275863 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.948188050928575 | EDQ9eiW99nSUfmFPivgS | {"NO": 51.08682542591293, "YES": 105.55350648988868} | 1 | will-there-be-a-sell-button-on-the | 54 | Will there be a sell button on the "new" YES/NO markets (i.e. CCFM) by April 1st? | 1648558740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.618124614712682 | True | play | YES | public | 1648533600128 | Undox | Resolves YES if a new market created on April 1st has a sell button against your YES/NO trades.
Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8882532152610301, "platformFee": 0.14804220254350497, "liquidityFee": 0.8882532152610301} | 0 | 1648588115788 | 100.88825321526105 | Undox | 1648533600128 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.8985522253033429 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4653460169558367 | oVCmVe5kAj8wrqxdQusI | {"NO": 7.085323859238516, "YES": 619.1889995811822} | 0 | will-the-closing-price-of-the-moex | 716.1512198148275 | Will the closing price of the MOEX Russia Index be above $3,000 USD on April 29th? | 1651262400000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.115677983709376 | True | play | NO | public | 1648564451026 | Scrooge McDuck | Question resolves Yes if the closing price of the MOEX Russia Index is above $3,000, in USD, on April 29th 2022. I'll use Google Finance or Yahoo Finance. I'll go by whatever is the last quoted price shown on the sites, even if the index has had trading frozen for any reason leading up to that.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMOEX.ME/
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IMOEX:MCX?hl=en&window=6M | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7461552656461024, "platformFee": 0.6243592109410171, "liquidityFee": 3.7461552656461024} | 0 | 1651446591775 | 53.746155265646095 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1648564451026 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575494}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1651240735464 | 0.009861334457248634 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9007550065984464 | 8aE4swDJ0qv8EJG3YlOF | {"NO": 20.641311150254577, "YES": 9.47388957706617} | 1 | will-ding-liren-qualify-for-the-fid | 41 | Will Ding Liren qualify for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022? | 1651356000000 | ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.237754302227287 | True | play | YES | public | 1648567075695 | UbiksDemise | This market resolves "Yes" if Ding Liren qualifies for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022 by being the highest rated player with a sufficient number of games played. The exact regulations can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022#Qualifier_by_rating . If the tournament is cancelled for some reason this resolves as N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11685408722636476, "platformFee": 0.019475681204394125, "liquidityFee": 0.11685408722636476} | 0 | 1651390230806 | 10.116854087226365 | UbiksDemise | 1648567075695 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.9518642253651031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo | who-will-win-the-fide-chess-candida | 827.2500539434002 | Who will win the FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament 2022 to challenge Magnus Carlsen? | 1656967414982 | ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.699977490387678 | True | play | cb06dbcaf458 | public | 1648567290587 | UbiksDemise | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.851642415564253, "platformFee": 2.2129106038910633, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656967414982 | 940 | UbiksDemise | 1656705328769 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fe2ad26ce419", "prob": 0.0003142810136629242, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0004457952747337939, "userId": "ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.4180149304881107, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648567290817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.829", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 0.025142481093033936, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb06dbcaf458", "prob": 0.8948860600742073, "text": "Ian Nepomniachtchi", "index": 1, "poolNo": 98.14405715502451, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.528069313104888, "textFts": "'ian':1 'nepomniachtchi':2", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648570973097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.827", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 33.63646077625365, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "380de81a43f6", "prob": 0.016598134083840446, "text": "Alireza Firouzja", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.4312741069850785, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.552014424522618, "textFts": "'alireza':1 'firouzja':2", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571050649, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.828", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 3.319626816768089, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "93be76c16a79", "prob": 0.03654245353687839, "text": "Fabiano Caruana", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.992683364079575, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.537956240307494, "textFts": "'caruana':2 'fabiano':1", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571164647, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.828", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 10.23188699032595, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "51b48bf40e81", "prob": 0.004164223431033747, "text": "Teimour Radjabov", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.032313828738429036, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.7275552737720705, "textFts": "'radjabov':2 'teimour':1", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571222085, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.827", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4997068117240496, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c3bbf80362c8", "prob": 0.005427520484665755, "text": "Hikaru Nakamura", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.06415107976091544, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.755441299882783, "textFts": "'hikaru':1 'nakamura':2", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571270236, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.827", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8684032775465209, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0b4811328e57", "prob": 0.015910180987920956, "text": "Richárd Rapport", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.32367957360271293, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.02049965656765, "textFts": "'rapport':2 'richárd':1", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571299036, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.829", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5456289580673532, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cb7ad20712be", "prob": 0.0035414846446065696, "text": "Jan-Krzysztof Duda", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.0422258527497844, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.880980651644181, "textFts": "'duda':4 'jan':2 'jan-krzysztof':1 'krzysztof':3", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571331539, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.829", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 0.7082969289213139, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f28d8a657e52", "prob": 0.011430400466920551, "text": "Ding Liren", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.24582075014027588, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.260053068688585, "textFts": "'ding':1 'liren':2", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571420490, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.828", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 2.2860800933841103, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7bee6a84325c", "prob": 0.011185261276263474, "text": "Levon Aronian", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.1903407240067864, "userId": "AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.826760558259483, "textFts": "'aronian':2 'levon':1", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648571528185, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.827", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1656967414000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7896418042021558, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969415}] | ["chess"] | 1656705327334 | {"cb06dbcaf458": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5150770555818412 | FckLXn71GJCsl9fxG7AD | {"NO": 301.2590788954425, "YES": 264.2212720769602} | 0.5477317615050945 | will-the-phrase-resolution-risk-app | 878.4541344657986 | Will the phrase "resolution risk" appear in the April 4, 2022 ''Mantic Monday'' column? | 1649217805763 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.218401416174785 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648568530727 | Alex Power | Apparently quite a few people don't understand what the phrase "resolution risk" means. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.031013510417253, "platformFee": 1.8385022517362088, "liquidityFee": 11.031013510417253} | 0 | 1649217805763 | 271.0198365656127 | AlexPower | 1648568530727 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1649163517724 | 0.5477317615050946 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3331972036423013 | aJ0VtGTb9M2afDN0koxR | {"NO": 46.55129419080413, "YES": 287.76131286119073} | 0 | by-the-end-of-2022-will-the-fda-cho | 313.5819008248258 | By the end of 2022, will the FDA choose to exercise its enforcement discretion on regulation for tests that offer a human embryo polygenic risk score/assessment? | 1672552740000 | IzLK4RaL3hgTyXpwnMjbvNpyW4v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8891642869917953 | True | play | NO | public | 1648572314275 | Courtney Grimm | This will stay open through 31 December 2022 and resolve on 1 January 2023 or at any earlier time that the answer is obviously yes. Note that this is for polygenic risk only, not for tests assessing monogenic traits or chromosomal abnormalities. It resolves to yes if there is action on regulation or an FDA announcement of intention to regulate or any other official indicator that the choice to proceed with regulation has been made. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8669946654323362, "platformFee": 0.14449911090538936, "liquidityFee": 0.8669946654323362} | 0 | 1702843739530 | 90.86699466543234 | CourtneyGrimm | 1702843768439 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GipzJm3PlfZAV2_aSyRpP02jfvdVoZ6BCs9ywHivg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 71 | 8 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530194}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893667}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1691181933088}] | ["science-default", "please-resolve", "biotech"] | 0.5 | 1670512442758 | 1702843768053 | False | 0.07 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3546202718236538 | hqFMlLeUJYppKskHedMV | {"NO": 23.94683203776264, "YES": 151.57371617607566} | 1 | will-there-be-drama-about-what-mm-d | 189.3408454711568 | Will there be drama about what MM, discord, or LessWrong do for April fool's this year? | 1648893600000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.421055110327986 | True | play | YES | public | 1648574279760 | Em ✨ | Subjective judgment based on what I happen to hear about.
Apr 2, 4:20pm: there was an argument over the resolution on a market about the leaderboard, and some wonkiness about the refunds | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7636671161746635, "platformFee": 0.4606111860291105, "liquidityFee": 2.7636671161746635} | 0 | 1648944144797 | 42.50775180052012 | hamnox | 1648574279760 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.07987641607549296 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7796366324303979 | SWMONjktteR7uB9RI3A6 | {"NO": 244.20956482285868, "YES": 795.348196957115} | 0.520687389936826 | will-i-convince-dreev-within-four-h | 4266.814223587549 | Will I convince @dreev within four hours that my implementation of decision markets works with non-binary outcomes? | 1648713680000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9776785002772423 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648577091730 | Gurkenglas | Robin Hanson's scheme for decision markets uses two markets on whether things will go well if an action is or isn't taken.
All bets about the condition that didnt happen are undone.
You can do this with fewer moving parts: One market with four outcomes.
Now whoever stakes on one side gets a "loan" for the other; whoever knows more about one side can concentrate shares there.
@dreev thinks this wouldn't work with non-binary outcomes; this market is on whether I'll convince him otherwise before GMT+1 midnight.
Mar 29, 8:04pm: Actually, my local timezone is GMT+2. "4 hours" in title trumps "GMT+1" in description.
Close date updated to 2022-03-29 10:58 pm
Mar 29, 10:59pm: as dreev requested, we've postponed the last hour.
Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:04 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-30 7:30 pm
Mar 31, 3:15am: dreev says he would feel bad if I resolve this NO because he was slow, and we did in fact miscommunicate about our original disagreement. Since we are ~ the only traders in this market, I suppose I will resolve this N/A.
Mar 31, 3:21am: Opening market for closing remarks. I feel like I lost some credibility in this market's administration.
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-31 10:01 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.61786743611481, "platformFee": 7.769644572685804, "liquidityFee": 46.61786743611481} | 0 | 1648717982379 | 536.711949607271 | Gurkenglas | 1648577091730 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1648661406132 | 0.5206873899368261 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20911017378842994 | sOca1rolMK8zzZJepwle | {"NO": 420.0104538417351, "YES": 5379.1539857910875} | 0 | will-i-run-at-least-500-hours-in-20 | 18027.070039866398 | Will I run at least 500 hours in 2022? | 1672613940000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0446140699442164 | True | play | NO | public | 1648584230571 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2022. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background: I am an avid runner. Last year I have logged 483 hours of running (rounded). My goal this year is 500 hours, though I am currently at 100 hours (roughly 20 hours behind schedule). My current estimate of the probability that I'll hit 500 hours is roughly 40 %. Apr 1, 9:44am: Will post a link to my Strava when I resolve (all runs and cumulative stats visible on there).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jul 15, 9:12pm: As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.380074498535512, "platformFee": 0.18014067742457715, "liquidityFee": 1.0808440645474628} | 0 | 1672758810475 | 881.0130106547534 | howtodowtle | 1672758783711 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 59 | [{"name": "Running", "slug": "running", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "PaaoqRhsQCCuJW5JjRsl", "createdTime": 1669999876412}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1668746329435}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408623}, {"name": "Trail Running", "slug": "trail-running", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "OjXxYAveKEmGNae3M03r", "createdTime": 1669999880005}] | ["sports-default", "personal-goals", "running", "trail-running"] | 0.99 | 1672610345005 | 1672758780355 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4195342571257481 | OCTjyTNiIZ4wEkEjeu6m | {"NO": 124.08272098379302, "YES": 16.778443528380258} | 0 | will-i-win-a-prize-in-the-fli-world | 131 | Will I win a prize in the FLI Worldbuilding Contest? | 1650092340000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.751324321297448 | True | play | NO | public | 1648588951496 | Alicorn | This market resolves to YES if as a direct result of my submitting an entry to the FLI worldbuilding contest they give me any sum of money. (An indirect result, like them asking to commission some further work, does not count.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8975984527717866, "platformFee": 0.31626640879529777, "liquidityFee": 1.8975984527717866} | 0 | 1652629155379 | 51.89759845277179 | Alicorn | 1652825730722 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1652825720972 | 0.8423964317728975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09728859639283038 | MD8Ok8rZpdjZyeIo83H0 | {"NO": 57.87403404212376, "YES": 19.846112022650402} | 0 | will-i-win-first-prize-in-the-fli-w | 101.63098588152887 | Will I win FIRST prize in the FLI Worldbuilding Contest? | 1650092340000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.442764452870206 | True | play | NO | public | 1648591383675 | Alicorn | This market resolves to YES if my submission to the FLI Worldbuilding Contest is given first place. Tying for first, if they decide to rejigger things so that's possible which it isn't rules-as-written, also counts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.474292417793075, "platformFee": 0.24571540296551253, "liquidityFee": 1.474292417793075} | 0 | 1652629160779 | 51.35378956626441 | Alicorn | 1648591383675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.23912904603930119 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5882488023230807 | 6cBUhgjrLplW2KBJt6ep | {"NO": 14.041405415997252, "YES": 32.442305688467165} | 0 | will-there-be-a-crying-baby-ony-fli | 36.38764318668082 | Will there be a crying baby ony flight? | 1648616400000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.976999300862165 | True | play | NO | public | 1648592695803 | Em ✨ | 5 hour flight. I must know.
Mar 29, 3:24pm: on my. Not ony | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9501805705556006, "platformFee": 0.1583634284259334, "liquidityFee": 0.9501805705556006} | 0 | 1648619604961 | 20.49403643044456 | hamnox | 1648592695803 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1648599013898 | 0.38208162776316756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.512297008789608 | f8T8M4k0TumHqgoOcN8b | {"NO": 62.312474906048315, "YES": 49.15179056060426} | 0 | will-i-visit-at-least-7-friends-in | 151.88787461859562 | Will I visit at least 7 friends in new york? | 1649207209688 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.144843431240546 | True | play | NO | public | 1648592978356 | Em ✨ | There for a week. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.576246231551999, "platformFee": 0.42937437192533323, "liquidityFee": 2.576246231551999} | 0 | 1649207209688 | 52.54676155399876 | hamnox | 1648592978356 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648850662895 | 0.5711259126482 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4791222495503699 | mlhqThs71bOh3orKtrw0 | {"NO": 42.552994579456055, "YES": 307.57566213500877} | 1 | will-there-be-a-successful-ceasefir | 451.3260793388789 | Will there be a successful ceasefire in Yemen during the month of Ramadan? | 1651463940000 | qCMkdLlW1IRTHSUSDoru5KvJc4H2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.063732778616063 | True | play | YES | public | 1648593697785 | Jonathan Mohrbacher | The UN has been trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Yemen to span the entire holy month of Ramadan.
On March 21, the Houthis praised the move, saying it was a positive step: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-21/yemen-houthis-say-u-n-calls-for-truce-in-ramadan-a-positive-step-spokesman
On March 29, the Saudi-led coalition announced that it will observe a unilateral cease-fire: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/gulf-states-plan-yemen-talks-without-houthi-rebels-present/2022/03/29/3bfa7fc0-af23-11ec-9dbd-0d4609d44c1c_story.html.
Examples of events that will cause me to resolve this market to NO:
* The Saudi-led coalition launches airstrikes in Yemen.
* The Houthis explode a drone in Saudi Arabia.
If it seems ambiguous I will either resolve as N/A or at a percentage that I think is reasonable, along the lines that Gabrielle describes in his answer to my question in https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.806333795013589, "platformFee": 0.8010556325022647, "liquidityFee": 4.806333795013589} | 0 | 1651497079740 | 104.6718113220744 | JonathanMohrbacher | 1651454931576 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgfrSMqgqoEzHBAx1E7zwk8vqC9TcGH0gXcnE9x=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651454931437 | 1649888515600 | 0.1128924661708623 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7028239775974003 | zmQHBfsfzVYJPmRszW1s | {"NO": 169.91668944456347, "YES": 30.674191340667562} | 1 | will-the-wikipedia-article-for-geor | 120 | Will the Wikipedia article for [[George Washington]] be a Good Article on May 15, 2022? | 1648594827910 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.535352438513056 | True | play | YES | public | 1648594497018 | Alex Power | Will the Wikipedia article for [[George Washington]] be a Good Article on May 15, 2022?
It possibly already is, but Wikipedia is blocked on my computer so I can't check. If it is, then this is easy money. If it isn't ... well, you can improve it.
Featured Articles also resolve as yes, Military-Project A-Class articles resolve as no if not also a GA.
Mar 29, 6:00pm: So it is a Good Article, and I have been informed that it would be inappropriate to leave open a market that only serves to encourage vandalism. Resolving as YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.49986333261896443, "platformFee": 0.08331055543649409, "liquidityFee": 0.49986333261896443} | 0 | 1648594827910 | 50.499863332618965 | AlexPower | 1648594497018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.9290817197491004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08745593248579869 | 2Wk1muCz4O1iWljONyDQ | {"NO": 21.98815324205347, "YES": 103.25718086412334} | 0 | will-dearmoon-launch-in-2023-as-pla | 352.0115223820063 | Will DearMoon launch in 2023 as planned? | 1699592788990 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.927280295801046 | True | play | NO | public | 1648601603085 | DAL59 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5837427620718543, "platformFee": 0.09729046034530905, "liquidityFee": 0.5837427620718543} | 0 | 1699592788990 | 30.528191239877323 | DAL59 | 1697980873448 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 1697980873122 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22461058983403506 | AyoCDuFmgLhyUaUo4rAT | {"NO": 20.76224575226354, "YES": 595.4151554713615} | 0 | will-dearmoon-launch-in-2024-1-year | 600.3244610929978 | Will DearMoon launch in 2024 (1 year behind scheduled date of 2023) | 1719542847082 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1648601753822 | DAL59 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.009999999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.43602581439542587, "platformFee": 0.027553086423496784, "liquidityFee": 0.1653185185409807} | 0 | 1719542847082 | 50.16531851854098 | DAL59 | 1719542847082 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 1717262052503 | 1719394530234 | 0.01 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG | how-many-copies-of-this-book-will-s | 187 | How many copies of this book will sell at the farmers market this April? Relevant Sales figures for forecasting: Sold 11 Copies over March. | 1651407772545 | I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.851509294905489 | True | play | 45f47e6e0ad8 | public | 1648607816109 | ben truitt | I will choose the answer that is closest to the actual sales figures for April.
Relevant figures for forecasting:
Sold 11 Copies over March at 4 Saturday markets
April has 5 Saturday markets, but markets are canceled in Oregon if the weather is too severe.
Weekly sales range from 30- 60 sales per day in March
Link to the product sold: https://www.amazon.com/Things-That-Go-Bump-Compendium/dp/0578905639/ref=sr_1_1?qid=1648607043&refinements=p_27%3ACarrieann+Reda&s=books&sr=1-1&text=Carrieann+Reda | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.32, "platformFee": 1.83, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651407772545 | 620 | bentruitt | 1648607816109 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "240271ff2088", "prob": 0.6434270353741885, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.1088430921377, "userId": "I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.88996286737177, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648607816291, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.518", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 32.09156681632303, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fb164f2c355c", "prob": 0.07355085933255169, "text": "11", "index": 1, "poolNo": 3.5230577056900194, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.37655540094851, "textFts": "'11':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648627941224, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.513", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 12.503646086533788, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "74e42b57e0f4", "prob": 0.05736509479824988, "text": "10", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2.4057402596674806, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.5316132499597, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648713495753, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.517", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 9.75206611570248, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0ccd95067f6d", "prob": 0.056907546684206015, "text": "12", "index": 3, "poolNo": 2.3764385105773553, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.38319881423648, "textFts": "'12':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648713511661, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.511", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 9.674282936315022, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "920e6dd44fdf", "prob": 0.03980668592181647, "text": "10", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.0536540645182244, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.41561962954627, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648717555452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.517", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 5.174869169836142, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e0ff46fc79e2", "prob": 0.04864308387428866, "text": "13", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1.8698588849782805, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.57052638768809, "textFts": "'13':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648717590582, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.512", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 8.269324258629071, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "45f47e6e0ad8", "prob": 0.0403786210643713, "text": "8", "index": 6, "poolNo": 1.4080763022337524, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.46375104395044, "textFts": "'8':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648718092270, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.516", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 6.864365580943121, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "211f390828a6", "prob": 0.03992107295032744, "text": "14", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1.3838810439267355, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.28154605139848, "textFts": "'14':1", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648718096752, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:19.517", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651407772000, "totalLiquidity": 6.786582401555664, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1651344135038 | 1648717608313 | {"45f47e6e0ad8": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7524533144285909 | PSUvRoQjSzCMEKPtxCww | {"NO": 372.9882861439951, "YES": 68.14440106741105} | 1 | will-my-family-enjoy-our-trip-to-ha | 301 | Will my family enjoy our trip to Hawaii? | 1649228340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9642466078778433 | True | play | YES | public | 1648614120605 | Austin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8845430996218966, "platformFee": 0.31409051660364945, "liquidityFee": 1.8845430996218966} | 0 | 1650063512899 | 101.8845430996219 | Austin | 1648614120605 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1648818375822 | 0.9433025470311887 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.470082984177202 | 2f3EdYzR7mSnrNw5SSUS | {"NO": 32.80191541725031, "YES": 568.3230496846681} | 0 | will-sky-mavis-recover-at-least-90 | 879.8902109667652 | Will Sky Mavis recover at least 90% of the stolen funds lost in the Ronin blockchain hack? | 1651381140000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.28059615484701 | True | play | NO | public | 1648618101358 | Lars Doucet | Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm
Mar 31, 7:27pm: To be clear, a bail-out where investors or founder or whatever replace the money with *new money* doesn't count for this. They have to recover the tokens that were actually stolen. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.917593761795326, "platformFee": 1.819598960299221, "liquidityFee": 10.917593761795326} | 0 | 1651385952833 | 109.68253059640652 | LarsDoucet | 1648618101358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651379367344 | 1649252176923 | 0.04870630868278854 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8541142544539759 | W6GPZN4g9teWj5xECM01 | {"NO": 6714.903390214829, "YES": 632.3776332704092} | 1 | will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of | 21867.89049242416 | Will Artemis I launch by the end of 2022？ | 1670881783354 | 2wowx4OaDib3TQ01jl1GlVQB2KT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0236396325363302 | True | basic | YES | public | 1648631397494 | Bolivian Alpaca | https://www.space.com/news/live/nasa-artemis-1-moon-mission-updates | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.079713565163273, "platformFee": 0.07695075305871613, "liquidityFee": 0.4617045183522967} | 0 | 1670881783354 | 1003.4617045183522 | Bolivian_Alpaca | 1670881775823 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 47 | [{"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1661272568890}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462007}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668653286250}] | ["space", "artemis-1", "please-resolve"] | 0.8 | 1670881775629 | 1669056840315 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06999592211398849 | jRtzv0gOAApt2haLv7Wa | {"NO": 20.52568245350786, "YES": 20.52568245350786} | 0.06999592211398849 | will-ramzan-kadyrov-launch-a-coup-a | 5.713929114440775 | Will Ramzan Kadyrov launch a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023? | 1648637801118 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.783474225949046 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648637235490 | Giovanni | This market will resolve to YES if the BBC reports that Ramzan Kadyrov has led a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023
A helpful thread for some context: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508972381062238208?s=21&t=B_qr-4Apqp8GRrxEgHC0Sg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.13203263371275462, "platformFee": 0.022005438952125773, "liquidityFee": 0.13203263371275462} | 0 | 1648637801118 | 20.01128632283548 | Giovanni | 1648637235490 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 1648637470503 | 0.06089752118366374 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07245966475071573 | RjhKUA1a3noq2wVERo2A | {"NO": 88.94397428179111, "YES": 258.9920974793512} | 0 | will-ramzan-kadyrov-launch-a-coup-a-a6963b3b0a1c | 1017.3905139984538 | Will Ramzan Kadyrov launch a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023? | 1704067140000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.263611230236966 | True | play | NO | public | 1648637779300 | Giovanni | This market will resolve to YES if the BBC reports that Ramzan Kadyrov has led a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023.
A helpful thread for some context: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508972381062238208?s=21&t=B_qr-4Apqp8GRrxEgHC0Sg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.277145201852735, "platformFee": 0.046190866975455824, "liquidityFee": 0.277145201852735} | 0 | 1704380332519 | 110.24485025526211 | Giovanni | 1704380332742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "coup d'état", "slug": "coup-detat", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "wiaUz7jXkuNBbkBpCwdD", "createdTime": 1670540267753}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227349}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131140101}] | ["coup-detat", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.05 | 1693722235277 | 1704380314905 | False | 0.03 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jRh4pME3nm1AgluWtxZR | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.5 | do-buffalo-buffalo-buffalo-buffalo | 0 | Do Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo? | 1649070715173 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.591581091193483 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648637885701 | Undox | Is a joke will just resolve NA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649070715173 | 10 | Undox | 1648637885701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5310121290190842 | lzSqrYoV6jp52XNzcmvz | {"NO": 11.102924297241376, "YES": 15.581056060652566} | 0.44654522926418067 | should-the-change-to-displaying-vol | 94.22281756026325 | Should the change to displaying volume instead of liquidity/pool be reverted? | 1649282340000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.61032174147537 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648639052592 | Gurkenglas | Opinion poll, will resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654717634815 | 10.853514303172949 | Gurkenglas | 1648639052592 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648857454972 | 0.4465452292641807 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5004221952869314 | qBSSTDbhgkgrnZUHySUk | {"NO": 119.91803278688525, "YES": 85.06355142298693} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-disable-autom | 20 | Will Manifold Markets disable automatic zooming when selecting input fields on mobile browsers before the end of 2022? | 1649420424107 | QyZQkZ4RCeUQqieJiwdhHcs7ygH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.767784700305585 | True | play | YES | public | 1648646417291 | Chris Martin | Currently, when selecting input fields such as entering the amount M$ to place into a market on mobile browsers (e.g. Safari on iPhone), the viewport zooms into the input field.
This can be fixed by setting 'maximum-scale=1' in the viewport meta tag (https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2989263/disable-auto-zoom-in-input-text-tag-safari-on-iphone) or by setting the font size to 16px or larger (https://css-tricks.com/16px-or-larger-text-prevents-ios-form-zoom/).
This market will resolve positively if Manifold Markets makes any change to prevent this behavior before 1/1/2023 otherwise it will resolve negatively. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.49180327868852447, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447} | 0 | 1649420424107 | 100.49180327868852 | ChrisMartin | 1648646417291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxHcCZQxtIEweM66bS0olRtxzbsos3eh_A_r4S=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5854284972943996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3092086227930028 | YJXQ8rdtCaUGFk9hzT1E | {"NO": 15.567731395822623, "YES": 571.2252860464519} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-5156bffccaf3 | 776.0853383136044 | Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before May 2022? | 1651355940000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.716715278559265 | True | play | NO | public | 1648648279816 | Zhao Nan | Apr 1, 10:00am: also see https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84 and https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6 for markets for "before june" and "before july". Thanks @JonathanMohrbacher for the insightful comments. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.785825166082701, "platformFee": 0.9643041943471168, "liquidityFee": 5.785825166082701} | 0 | 1651480311379 | 37.578849072596824 | ZhaoNan | 1648648279816 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492318}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226741}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.33 | 1651299526117 | 1648993566255 | False | 0.012051933045624096 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc | how-many-republicans-will-vote-to-c | 658.6546798324854 | How many Republicans will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court? | 1649170088510 | I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.690361455727231 | True | play | ef3883c36de1 | public | 1648656836658 | ben truitt | Based on the confirmation vote on 4/4 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.973812806700586, "platformFee": 4.4934532016751465, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649170088510 | 580 | bentruitt | 1648656836658 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bb2210a8ee36", "prob": 0.006116021838167646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.043179559328351706, "userId": "I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.016893225056648, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648656837012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, 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"probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 14.441762366465266, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b8eaa82cd644", "prob": 0.23096544869656305, "text": "2", "index": 3, "poolNo": 26.580729338735136, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.50457666154142, "textFts": "'2':1", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648705263830, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 48.50274422627824, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef3883c36de1", "prob": 0.4209815341282573, "text": "3", "index": 4, "poolNo": 75.38200025020863, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.68048619900122, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648705268953, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 88.40612216693403, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "91e58d8c6f1b", "prob": 0.24311186806716392, "text": "4", "index": 5, "poolNo": 23.42298899148965, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.9235578789356, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648705275687, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:06.443", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 41.329017571417864, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "16fbbcd04d1b", "prob": 0.005269564415765245, "text": "0", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.049860051855041235, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.412032416120525, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648819331329, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.065", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6850433740494819, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c7a2b0817984", "prob": 0.0027326385572933043, "text": "5", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.012873895941506215, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.698285546329515, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648875882724, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:08.064", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649170088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2459374701563974, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471288}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330762}] | ["politics-default", "scotus"] | 1649112305394 | {"ef3883c36de1": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39125669735816515 | nZZGKpbyoHnXuMge7frN | {"NO": 1007.8223611104904, "YES": 1028.2546575066483} | 0.38648687574793633 | faucet-borrow-money-forever | 447.1380207306252 | Faucet. Borrow money forever. | 1717624980000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.64531300754299 | False | basic | public | 1648678276891 | Undox | I wont resolve this. So you just buy 20 yes and then sell it right away. You now have a 20 loan and probably about 18 extra cash to spend (2 to trading fees)
Can only do this once each. In theory I could set up 100 of these so you can borrow ~1800M.
I am too lazy to do that.
Mar 31, 5:18pm: Some of you have left money in here! That is up to you. Risky because you might lose it to other people trading. The idea is you BUY 20 then SELL using the new SELL button on the right hand side which calculates the amount of NO to cancel out the YES, and then you get your money refunded! (You then owe 20 but never have to pay it back).
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APPARENTLY THE LOOPHOLE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN
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Therefore there is no point in trading other than ponzing
Close date updated to 2022-04-02 9:00 am
Apr 2, 7:59am: Closing this up since you can't use it anymore, and don't want to get a pile of customer support phone calls at night. However in theory I am just closing not resolving so in theory your loans are still safe, if you managed to get one.
Close date updated to 2022-04-02 8:03 am | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.917530581556812, "platformFee": 0.9862550969261351, "liquidityFee": 5.917530581556812} | 0 | 1000 | Undox | 1717303250662 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0.5 | 1717303249628 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5236002916397208 | ZkKVfIml4mFVnAHU3CNk | {"NO": 1084.6790831069984, "YES": 16.100266033259516} | 1 | will-the-book-what-we-owe-the-futur | 1837.3393137531095 | Will the book What We Owe the Future hit the NYT Best Sellers list in 2022? | 1661444966933 | CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.315402194730875 | True | play | YES | public | 1648688344566 | causal_agency | This market resolves to YES if What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill appears on the New York Times Best Sellers list (https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/) in any category during any week in 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.31553774447167, "platformFee": 1.6493068835627942, "liquidityFee": 9.895841301376764} | 0 | 1661444966933 | 109.89584130137676 | causal_agency | 1661436058059 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 20 | 0.5 | 1661436057833 | 0.9866746881631717 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22699204221789146 | cxLk1ik8FfHUQ1DBh8Ds | {"NO": 395.78164332476985, "YES": 1.354550930446261} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-become-openso | 1386.675362535118 | Will Manifold Markets become open-source? | 1651183140000 | AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.423576794911352 | True | play | YES | public | 1648689545458 | Sjlver | This market resolves YES if the manifold team officially expresses their intent to publish Manifold Markets as open-source software.
It will resolve NO otherwise, including if no announcement or official statement has been made before the end of April. It may resolve to NO earlier, if there is an official statement that Manifold Markets will remain closed-source.
If only parts of the code are to be made open-source, this resolves YES for core parts like the market making implementation, and NO for tangential parts like generic user interface components.
The exact license does not matter. What matters is whether the public gets access to the code. That said, unintended access (eg, a developer's computer gets hacked) does not count. Also, code in some unreadable form (eg, minified JavaScript) dies not count.
An open development process (eg, a publicly accessible issue tracker) alone is not sufficient for YES. The public actually needs access to source code. Similarly, access through a closed "developer program" or beta-testing program does not count if code is not accessible to the public.
The actual publication date may be in the future. An expression of intent is enough for a YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.891980236127248, "platformFee": 2.4819967060212074, "liquidityFee": 14.891980236127248} | 0 | 1651224086864 | 114.06767426224745 | Sjlver | 1648689545458 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1651224069404 | 0.9884792544908598 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6386163125984813 | NcUKS2BB15bxGvFR6CQv | {"NO": 7.861432453510689, "YES": 185.7370041707627} | 0 | will-covid19-case-numbers-increase | 308 | Will Covid-19 case numbers increase in Germany after the mask mandate ceases to exist in many places? | 1649973540000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.2927828850805465 | True | play | NO | public | 1648718418236 | Zhao Nan | In Germany, the mask mandate ceases to exist in most places after this saturday (April 2nd). This market resolves YES if the number of reported Covid-19 cases (7-day average) is higher on April 16th than it was on April 2nd. I'll take the numbers from the RKI: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html
I'm aware that a causal relationship is not established just because number go up. Other factors may definitely contribute.
Apr 2, 2:51pm: Today's 7-day-average is 1.586,4. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.916678102173912, "platformFee": 0.8194463503623188, "liquidityFee": 4.916678102173912} | 0 | 1650112133881 | 54.916678102173904 | ZhaoNan | 1648718418236 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.66 | 1648887229967 | 0.06959033496994597 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23511506572196506 | 8U3lICT4BoLJovOwewwq | {"NO": 80.88733714180421, "YES": 631.7610830719119} | 0 | will-germany-and-russia-sign-a-gas | 1035.4551391226994 | Will Germany and Russia sign a gas delivery contract with payment in RUB by the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | uGnFQw9PlWPidF1wkeYcUHpyUVi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.615188516320561 | True | play | NO | public | 1648735861575 | Dan Cîrnaț | Germany declares officially they are paying for Russian gas exclusively in roubles (RUB)
Apr 16, 8:48pm: @JonathanMohrbacher The "buy through Gazprombank" scheme doesn't have any effect on payments from the POV of the buyers. That is merely the Russian government forcing Gazprom to convert euros to roubles.
I will only resolve the market if a new contract/agreement is signed which requires payments for gas in RUB. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9221898970253353, "platformFee": 0.47407821587241417, "liquidityFee": 2.8444692952344846} | 0 | 1673204571282 | 162.8444692952345 | DanCirnat | 1672687971042 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMS0xLsXKR4mg35lNu4bzK5er6gDJWMHEvQeZf=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472914}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565352}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226455}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672152523902 | 1672687969931 | False | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9865758420064574 | RD5e8hSzb8DDyzBsx7kT | {"NO": 0.001660844154590215, "YES": 10.999928672359445} | 0 | will-russia-control-hostomel-airpor | 1 | Will Russia control Hostomel Airport as of May 1, 2022? | 1650814266493 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1648741146386 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if Russia maintains control of Hostomel airport as of May 1, 2022 and to "no" if Ukraine controls it. If there is credible information it is contested as of that date, the market will resolve N/A.
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm
Mar 31, 3:30pm: if it loses control and gains it back, that counts as "maintains". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0004279658433224374, "platformFee": 7.132764055373957e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0004279658433224374} | 0 | 1650814266493 | 10.000427965843322 | EnopoletusHarding | 1648741146386 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.010974629499165379 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It | will-my-friend-use-mechanical-turk | 1457 | Will my friend use Mechanical Turk or Positly for his categorization task? | 1648750004078 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6601528890685255 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648742794371 | Nuño Sempere | A friend of mine is looking into predictions made by the three great scifi authors (Helein, Clarke, Asimov). He thinks he is being clever and saving money by using Mechanical Turk rather than Positly for time-intensive categorization stuff. But I think Positly is ze good shit, and worth it for the guided track integration alone. So far, he hasn't been convinced.
What will he chose? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.547473508864641e-15, "platformFee": 1.1368683772161603e-15, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648750004078 | 340 | NuñoSempere | 1648742794371 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dc661bb32e83", "prob": 0.2123638216993353, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.232418151654892, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.07771568267283, "textFts": "", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648742794598, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.442", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648750004000, "totalLiquidity": 25.483658603920237, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "004848ffdad2", "prob": 0.29943298859606277, "text": "Positly", "index": 1, "poolNo": 31.321648283614824, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.28155001618224, "textFts": "'posit':1", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648742819166, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.441", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648750004000, "totalLiquidity": 47.90927817537004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f6298a540f6e", "prob": 0.28745566905222036, "text": "Mechanical Turk", "index": 2, "poolNo": 29.212609619143915, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.41213730430967, "textFts": "'mechan':1 'turk':2", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648742853328, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.444", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648750004000, "totalLiquidity": 45.99290704835526, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4ef07f71238d", "prob": 0.1487608571003844, "text": "Positly and he'll love it", "index": 3, "poolNo": 7.46257074147686, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.702310578352375, "textFts": "'ll':4 'love':5 'posit':1", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648743745949, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.445", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648750004000, "totalLiquidity": 17.85130285204613, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "464801fd2351", "prob": 0.0519866635519973, "text": "Positly and he'll regret it", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.4608712466652853, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.64001361208537, "textFts": "'ll':4 'posit':1 'regret':5", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648743758802, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.445", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648750004000, "totalLiquidity": 6.2383996262396755, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648743987891 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49957780471306884 | UTHejnnQBZQsFK8pC8Gi | {"NO": 10.187388823612139, "YES": 250.93090989503108} | 0 | will-cosmos-interchain-security-v1 | 200.97189350158845 | Will Cosmos' Interchain Security v1 will be released before October 1st 2022? | 1664578939297 | wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.436345700896525 | True | play | NO | public | 1648748173021 | O | This markets resolves to YES if is implemented and released official on Github before October 1st.
https://hub.cosmos.network/main/roadmap/cosmos-hub-roadmap-2.0.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.24590163934426235, "platformFee": 0.04098360655737706, "liquidityFee": 0.24590163934426235} | 0 | 1664578939297 | 50.24590163934426 | o | 1664555584096 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 1664555583864 | 0.03895119062752944 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA | will-my-friend-use-mechanical-turk-dae5dd11b430 | 1723.9999999999998 | Will my friend use Mechanical Turk or Positly for his categorization task? | 1649390340000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.66691873423878 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648750152982 | Nuño Sempere | A friend of mine is looking into predictions made by the three great scifi authors (Helein, Clarke, Asimov). He thinks he is being clever and saving money by using Mechanical Turk rather than Positly for time-intensive categorization stuff. But I think Positly is ze good shit, and worth it for the guided track integration alone. So far, he hasn't been convinced.
What will he chose?
I resolved https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-my-friend-use-mechanical-turk as N/A because I thought that Gurkenglas-style options were a good idea but couldn't figure out how to delete my original options. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08111349939800676, "platformFee": 0.02027837484950169, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531158374 | 460 | NuñoSempere | 1672531157839 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a909c04150de", "prob": 0.2829334540516071, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.32691153928274, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.05092460515817, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750153334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.214", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672531158000, "totalLiquidity": 33.95201448619285, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2daff78df804", "prob": 0.1687132186509733, "text": "Positly and he'll like it", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.201212305591618, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.89968451292759, "textFts": "'like':5 'll':4 'posit':1", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750218448, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.225", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672531158000, "totalLiquidity": 33.74264373019466, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "371a036778ed", "prob": 0.16876980534178362, "text": "Positly and he'll regret it", "index": 2, "poolNo": 15.209378383356706, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.9096944718586, "textFts": "'ll':4 'posit':1 'regret':5", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750228489, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.263", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672531158000, "totalLiquidity": 33.75396106835672, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "366a2259bfb7", "prob": 0.17867247623358984, "text": "Mechanical Turk and he'll like it", "index": 3, "poolNo": 16.66703286492534, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.61556564305901, "textFts": "'like':6 'll':5 'mechan':1 'turk':2", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750244235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.214", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672531158000, "totalLiquidity": 35.73449524671797, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "032daa04bb17", "prob": 0.2009110457220462, "text": "Mechanical Turk and he'll regret it", "index": 4, "poolNo": 20.148288141592335, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 80.13633319011298, "textFts": "'ll':5 'mechan':1 'regret':6 'turk':2", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750255920, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.225", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672531158000, "totalLiquidity": 40.18220914440924, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | 1672531195069 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21855637780999299 | hnK8Pgf47dPrROs2JSH7 | {"NO": 77.66139556056655, "YES": 819.944410278032} | 0 | will-germany-reopen-nordstream-2-in | 1292.9961484931607 | Will Germany reopen NordStream 2 in 2022 | 1672527540000 | D3k0mi76wPdh7kx3iwJxjyTco5C2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.93356698072442 | True | play | NO | public | 1648756313331 | Robertas Strumila | This market resolves to YES if Germany decides to import again the gas grom Russia via the NordStream 2 pipeline. At any time in 2022. Market closes 2022 12 31. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.0929481394094696, "platformFee": 0.8780690124747017, "liquidityFee": 5.268414074848209} | 0 | 1672557679470 | 165.26841407484824 | RobertasStrumila | 1671229425026 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c | 33 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500435}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573546}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "global-macro"] | 0.5 | 1671229424905 | 1648826309656 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23305342835405615 | uen0VZN0moO94pa4Wonb | {"NO": 6681.430379955014, "YES": 5368.981291806944} | 0.2743913395926813 | will-joe-biden-born-20-november-194 | 16415.32331572587 | Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)? | 1893542340000 | S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.148943686491621 | False | basic | public | 1648761271563 | jon jordan | This market will resolve when either Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin is pronounced dead, or on 1st January 2030 if both remain alive.
Apr 1, 11:06pm: In the unlikely event that both men are still alive on 1st January 2030, the market will be resolved as void (N/A). | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.034585893863219475, "month": -0.03487468221141965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 58.451314717811, "platformFee": 4.940664619712512, "liquidityFee": 20.99753774162933} | 0 | 6395.997537741627 | jonjordanc3f0 | 1720095566958 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c | 0 | 130 | 2 | 72 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510180}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856964}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227001}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.2 | 1720095563848 | 1689010949551 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I | why-is-asmodia-thinking-implausibly | 2931.1263130306925 | Why is Asmodia thinking implausibly quickly? | 1664716961890 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.632786488152408 | True | basic | ab122efc3741 | public | 1648767751897 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since Otolmens' intervention, which may or may not have give her 20 extra points of INT for a few minutes, Asmodia has thought implausibly quickly on a few occasions: * \"Asmodia, having thought implausibly fast\" https://glowfic.com/replies/1767508#reply-1767508 * \"Implausibly quickly, in fact, but that's fine so long as nobody including her notices.\" https://glowfic.com/replies/1764294#reply-1764294 Apr 3, 1:47pm: * \"(There isn't time for Asmodia to have read all of the books in the 'has read' pile, but nobody will notice this fact. Probably Carissa Sevar was just working on her glibness swords for a while!)\" https://glowfic.com/replies/1785685#reply-1785685 Close date updated to 2022-09-01 12:00 am", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-01 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.18977425597286585, "platformFee": 0.04744356399321646, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664716961890 | 1360.0000000000002 | Tetraspace | 1664723472337 | 0 | 31 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "99b2a8570631", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.077276949617599e-05, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7076569221922635, "textFts": "", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648767752251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.318", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007076923076923078, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6bd04f1d063a", "prob": 0.00023143182266988552, "text": "She precomputed some answers she'd need while at boosted intelligence", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0003900353893379087, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.68492439042433, "textFts": "'answer':4 'boost':10 'd':6 'intellig':11 'need':7 'precomput':2", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648767907641, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.318", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.025635524972664244, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c01c8a64fc28", "prob": 0.00020603680832203476, "text": "A superintelligence is hidden inside her head and thinking of the answers when she needs them", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00020931793446517428, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0157156333878787, "textFts": "'answer':12 'head':7 'hidden':4 'insid':5 'need':15 'superintellig':2 'think':9", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648767927085, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.014581066435097845, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "004aa3570c67", "prob": 0.0005419846985997278, "text": "Metafictionally because all her thoughts take at most one glowfic tag and that's how their reality is actually structured", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.00190287815254728, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5090415405064257, "textFts": "'actual':19 'glowfic':10 'metafict':1 'one':9 'realiti':17 'structur':20 'tag':11 'take':6 'thought':5", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648767980500, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.08171461609657435, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2eac7cf389e5", "prob": 0.0016473815527433193, "text": "Totally mundane, people with 18 INT and a +6 WIS headband are just fast thinkers sometimes", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.01544284169366547, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.358731385247943, "textFts": "'+6':9 '18':5 'fast':14 'headband':11 'int':6 'mundan':2 'peopl':3 'sometim':16 'thinker':15 'total':1 'wis':10", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648768541599, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.38016497370999675, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ab122efc3741", "prob": 0.983105027583457, "text": "Otolmens is helping", "index": 5, "poolNo": 127.02862003630075, "userId": "hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.1830272162275537, "textFts": "'help':3 'otolmen':1", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648770574205, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 16.65253538591266, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6870b9db9d52", "prob": 0.005316853495013038, "text": "Tropes, aka what happens is at these moments selected by what's most entertaining rather than what's most plausible.", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.08970518847641026, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.782151175545955, "textFts": "'aka':2 'entertain':14 'happen':4 'moment':8 'plausibl':20 'rather':15 'select':9 'trope':1", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648774433239, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 1.226966191156855, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7ba90b7197fb", "prob": 0.0022613675236974958, "text": "Otolmens didn't *revert* the mental boost, she altered it to apply in weird restricted fashion", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.016231589510683767, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.161544398066943, "textFts": "'alter':9 'appli':12 'boost':7 'didn':2 'fashion':16 'mental':6 'otolmen':1 'restrict':15 'revert':4 'weird':14", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648984015103, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3409446420343917, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "612c58e5ebc7", "prob": 0.00028547390342818367, "text": "Nethys is helping", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0007273180034381067, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5470292184222365, "textFts": "'help':3 'nethi':1", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648990291835, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04304068082455693, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "00d87834ba4d", "prob": 0.0005790717361509535, "text": "Snack Service is helping", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.0009864357589098212, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.7024912118751916, "textFts": "'help':4 'servic':2 'snack':1", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1649548512488, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04098046132760594, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "390210b1ec01", "prob": 0.00013864287623655547, "text": "No other answer explains it well", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.0001808404533397717, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.3041808278030071, "textFts": "'answer':3 'explain':4 'well':6", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1649628577191, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.015357364752356915, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f41d499b8e7b", "prob": 0.0047039894071986875, "text": "Nobody here will come up with the right answer by the close time", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.1004989174780858, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.26411498328636, "textFts": "'answer':9 'close':12 'come':4 'nobodi':1 'right':8 'time':13", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1649628864702, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.523", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4618551696217459, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "34168df21364", "prob": 0.0008827385924832382, "text": "To make a point about the difficulty of AI alignment", "index": 12, "poolNo": 0.0018568824639695076, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.1016905094608567, "textFts": "'ai':9 'align':10 'difficulti':7 'make':2 'point':4", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1652022273064, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:40.524", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664716961000, "totalLiquidity": 0.06247073116035225, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 31 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392619}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544605}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 1664690347752 | 1664723470761 | {"ab122efc3741": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5097095035805809 | UXuaCYbltoZPwUEmYkEq | {"NO": 10.604975536759827, "YES": 10.314502665389398} | 1 | will-taiwan-remove-its-10day-covid | 320 | Will Taiwan remove its 10-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022? | 1651879062783 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.433386329998847 | True | play | YES | public | 1648771675002 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if Taiwan removes or reduces its 10 day COVID quarantine requirement by June 1, 2022. It resolves to no if this requirement is not removed or reduced by that date. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4303426103387359, "platformFee": 0.07172376838978932, "liquidityFee": 0.4303426103387359} | 0 | 1651879062783 | 10.430342610338734 | EnopoletusHarding | 1648771675002 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.516647656145178 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz | in-what-quadrant-will-the-plurality | 113.12928422217567 | In what quadrant will the plurality of takers of my political quiz from this website end up in? | 1649826288404 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.15788961062016 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648772353212 | Enopoletus Harding | I will choose the answer on April 15. Here is my political quiz: https://enopoletus.github.io/quiz/ Post your scores (i.e., your exact scores, not just the quadrant -the latter answers will not be counted) in a comment here.
Mar 31, 8:19pm: I will not choose any response options other than those submitted by me.
Mar 31, 9:13pm: Post your comments when you trade. I have yet to see them. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3382206189242245, "platformFee": 0.08455515473105613, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649826288404 | 460 | EnopoletusHarding | 1648772353212 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "24695afab850", "prob": 0.021082922226667987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.37128252036091636, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.239298990549255, "textFts": "", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772353405, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.108", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649826288000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5299506672001586, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cedd0a50c28f", "prob": 0.07741332985592102, "text": "Top left quadrant", "index": 1, "poolNo": 4.484871774825557, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.44923057127741, "textFts": "'left':2 'quadrant':3 'top':1", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772374444, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.109", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649826288000, "totalLiquidity": 15.482665971184204, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "12915bf04afc", "prob": 0.005267842620604823, "text": "Top right quadrant", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.06133609053507044, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.582157261972903, "textFts": "'quadrant':3 'right':2 'top':1", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772391791, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.108", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649826288000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8428548192967716, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1f9c0d87a064", "prob": 0.7175869941320906, "text": "Bottom left quadrant", "index": 3, "poolNo": 108.0415653307131, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.52075842124892, "textFts": "'bottom':1 'left':2 'quadrant':3", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772402145, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.103", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649826288000, "totalLiquidity": 67.77912140829825, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "619aa0d92fe0", "prob": 0.17864891116471565, "text": "Bottom right quadrant", "index": 4, "poolNo": 16.66349660922346, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 76.61161209748225, "textFts": "'bottom':1 'quadrant':3 'right':2", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772420483, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.108", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649826288000, "totalLiquidity": 35.72978223294313, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509316}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867721}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1649160097208 | False | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32975515002909866 | XlvCfARg5kCMQyH1aMgK | {"NO": 98.47290193165458, "YES": 16.2996089272359} | 1 | will-there-be-more-personal-markets | 150 | Will there be more personal markets in April? | 1650081540000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.0572361026435 | True | play | YES | public | 1648775222289 | Em ✨ | Eugh, I've had enough global economic and politics. Where's all the markets about what people are going to eat for breakfast? Resolves yes if I see what feels like an adequate steam of dumb mundane questions going in Newest by the 15th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.55462238731355, "platformFee": 0.4257703978855917, "liquidityFee": 2.55462238731355} | 0 | 1650391513337 | 52.55462238731355 | hamnox | 1648775222289 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.7482588512462613 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.362096409270574 | tKBYPdoTDzTsVx6zqfvj | {"NO": 104.31093329450972, "YES": 132.55231602959208} | 0.3087695886677705 | if-mm-launches-a-token-in-2022-will | 468 | If MM launches a token in 2022, will it have a market cap of $20M by Jan 2023? (CFMM) | 1654224561515 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7378231553685315 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648775655975 | Em ✨ | https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-launch-a-token-in-2022-will-i
Because I didn't care to enter the DPM version | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654224561515 | 107.10109866291518 | hamnox | 1654224556783 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.35 | 1654224547694 | 0.30876958866777054 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9896842953967154 | CG0pezbnieUGNlxcoCsI | {"NO": 13.347322391229536, "YES": 102.58076393996662} | 0.925833641754048 | will-garrett-baldwin-feel-old-on-su | 14 | Will Garrett Baldwin feel old on Sunday while watching the Grammys? | 1649044740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.979126448613563 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648776714004 | David Glidden | https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=22m
Apr 4, 6:56am: Resolving N/A as the point of this market was mainly just to show the benefit of a Manifold Market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2450977994362155, "platformFee": 0.04084963323936925, "liquidityFee": 0.2450977994362155} | 0 | 1649069805164 | 100.24509779943622 | dglid | 1648776714004 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.9258336417540483 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz | who-will-win-the-tourney-for-twitte | 18013.385172999577 | Who will win the tourney for twitter user Aella's hand? | 1649028334447 | w0WIU9eaFjgrqQcjKAurMaFjRBu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619060596609323 | True | basic | c9df510413ba | public | 1648776789123 | INSUFFERABLE PEDANT | @Aella_Girl is conducting a bracket tournament of twitter polls (may be viewed here: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1509664615365545994) in which she will ask the winner out.
Contestants (chosen from user submissions) are:
@Acidshill
@Antonoiogm
@Tjdrii
@Tszzl
@Turrible_tao
@Swipe_Wright
@VaushV
@VitalikButerin | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 171.59255758806893, "platformFee": 42.89813939701723, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649028334447 | 1819.9999999999998 | transfemsuprem | 1648776789123 | 0 | 45 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "588fc0d51aea", "prob": 0.001558676676036636, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005200485194140489, "userId": "w0WIU9eaFjgrqQcjKAurMaFjRBu1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.331274150048463, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648776789301, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:51.048", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.13162158597642704, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8726d2e23f3a", "prob": 0.06696007047704657, "text": "VitalikButerin", "index": 1, "poolNo": 15.147634627836503, "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 211.0712824061443, "textFts": "'vitalikbuterin':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778178935, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:48.99", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 56.54405951395044, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6781bf705185", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "VaushV", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.00020445466743339725, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.044342219666539, "textFts": "'vaushv':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778602715, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:48.983", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.020444444444444446, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "367743ada0bc", "prob": 0.00028665543488479975, "text": "turrible_tao", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0015748633191065352, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.492349644825791, "textFts": "'tao':2 'turribl':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778621156, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:51.28", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.09300376331817947, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7da1ea58ae7c", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "SwipeWright", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00016445266728338473, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.644362220166564, "textFts": "'swipewright':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778637498, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:51.281", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.016444444444444446, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c9df510413ba", "prob": 0.9004139818088688, "text": "tszzl", "index": 5, "poolNo": 407.5250377131486, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.07237408454391, "textFts": "'tszzl':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778668871, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:51.281", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 135.5290409787692, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "80f83c690dba", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Tjdriii", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00012445066713337224, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.2443822206665889, "textFts": "'tjdriii':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778709297, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:47.072", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012444444444444445, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "aeabf9cf1960", "prob": 0.030380615603163186, "text": "Antoniogm", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1.3145417423470922, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.95455324630824, "textFts": "'antoniogm':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778724093, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:47.073", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 7.426372702995446, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fef269a14376", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Acidshill", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.00028445866773342223, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.8443022186664892, "textFts": "'acidshil':1", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648778734695, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:50.429", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649028334000, "totalLiquidity": 0.028444444444444446, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648997344277 | {"c9df510413ba": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8881294293869817 | 7mUC9uEmynZrSoVhQEDV | {"NO": 1476.9833554311942, "YES": 895.1801482670738} | 0.9290710757500608 | will-president-yoon-finish-his-term | 2026.200089764163 | Will President Yoon finish his term in office? | 1807156740000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.17304738861453 | False | basic | public | 1648780284962 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if President Yoon of South Korea finishes his term in office. It will resolve to "no" if it is not finished or does not start. | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4720729422704695, "platformFee": 0.07867882371174492, "liquidityFee": 0.4720729422704695} | 0 | 1000 | EnopoletusHarding | 1708557561498 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472480}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1708557561310 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29315791195321467 | nLcVDY3evaspzY4ozgK1 | {"NO": 77.25880716853177, "YES": 604.9496996921055} | 0 | will-we-see-a-new-spice-and-wolf-an | 497.03244217937805 | Will we see a new "Spice and Wolf" anime in 2022? | 1672551510069 | 8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.04920241456167 | True | play | NO | public | 1648784001801 | Anton Paquin | In February we saw this tweet
https://twitter.com/Spicy_Wolf_Prj/status/1497119488525094914
This resolves yes if any new episode of Spice and Wolf publicly airs in 2022.
- "Wolf and Parchment" is also acceptable
- Either a movie or any episode of what is planned to be a full season
- Shorts or previews don't count
- Measured in Japan Standard Time (GMT +9)
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8661630328343057, "platformFee": 0.31102717213905096, "liquidityFee": 1.8661630328343057} | 0 | 1672551510069 | 161.8661630328343 | citrinitas | 1672340036683 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "userId": "PFBRdH9O4uUy0MvKLQEXD32m8uH2", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1672139696688}] | ["anime"] | 0.5 | 1672340036509 | 1648829970308 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18374464639122662 | 37OxDEKqeIdhnvSAL2X8 | {"NO": 23.04468579483563, "YES": 367.1906174571334} | 0 | will-hoshi-no-samidare-rate-highly | 465.26572278628385 | Will "Hoshi no Samidare" rate highly on MyAnimeList? | 1672436704977 | 8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.411598179241825 | True | play | NO | public | 1648787421286 | Anton Paquin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Hoshi no Samidare\" AKA \"Lucifer and the Biscuit Hammer\" is an anime planned for the summer season of 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"yes\" if the MyAnimeList score at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://myanimelist.net/anime/50891/Hoshi_no_Samidare", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://myanimelist.net/anime/50891/Hoshi_no_Samidare", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is greater than or equal to 7.2 at one week after the last episode (best judgement). ~It is likely to be a 1-cour and end by October.~ lol nope", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an adaptation of a manga by Mizukami Satoshi. The last anime based on his work was \"Planet With\", which scores 7.18 at present measurement. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://myanimelist.net/anime/37578/Planet_With", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://myanimelist.net/anime/37578/Planet_With", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's a distribution of scores on MyAnimeList: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments/mh868r/distribution_of_anime_scores_on_myanimelistnet/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/anime/comments/mh868r/distribution_of_anime_scores_on_myanimelistnet/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2243208279430789, "platformFee": 0.03738680465717982, "liquidityFee": 0.2243208279430789} | 0 | 1672436704977 | 54.22432082794308 | citrinitas | 1672436688126 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1663359048832}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | 0.5 | 1667246243294 | 1672436689553 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4590608825424113 | kpUwJ1ZcKsSzOvMF76ou | {"NO": 4.115428273655677, "YES": 1302.757141830273} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84 | 1459.0763204969544 | Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before June 2022? | 1654034340000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.409439015660708 | True | play | NO | public | 1648800250694 | Zhao Nan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.2897130132036105, "platformFee": 0.7149521688672682, "liquidityFee": 4.2897130132036105} | 0 | 1654067138478 | 53.97072730985159 | ZhaoNan | 1654011575412 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654011575242 | 0.00267368814425943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6265399124475999 | 6i8Hs97xABf1lRHSwY4l | {"NO": 6.329601328715725, "YES": 201.17173907864614} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6 | 259 | Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before July 2022? | 1656626340000 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.583490430201202 | True | play | NO | public | 1648800311323 | Zhao Nan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.116865456542682, "platformFee": 0.5111263983439747, "liquidityFee": 3.066758390063848} | 0 | 1656681861103 | 53.066758390063846 | ZhaoNan | 1655932728121 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.66 | 1655932727947 | 0.05013881603546881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5205639516330475 | cykct4DpE60CjXfNJL4h | {"NO": 18.12112776606311, "YES": 6.9286932338914236} | 0 | will-my-friend-g-drink-tea-on-april | 68 | Will my friend G----- drink tea on April 1st? | 1648875540000 | RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.308884983104226 | True | play | NO | public | 1648801882917 | sophia | This market resolves to YES if my friend G----- drinks tea before midnight in her timezone (ET) on April 1st.
Apr 1, 3:32am: It will resolve to N/A if I am unable to determine whether she drank tea.
Apr 1, 11:07am: Quote:
Me: "may i quote u on the market page about how u hate the idea"
G:
T_T
fine.
but I get to complain extensively abt the commodification of my personality and future for possible consumption by ppl that unironically like nfts
Close date updated to 2022-04-01 11:59 pm
Apr 2, 12:48am: still trying to determine answer | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5251705307077597, "platformFee": 0.08752842178462662, "liquidityFee": 0.5251705307077597} | 0 | 1648888409544 | 10.525170530707758 | a11ce | 1648801882917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgO1qPCZdYZsdQaawUT0ks9gfJujhBCR3JPgdqq-Q=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7395651300637454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4936450473595461 | PutYg5wiQEg40EiSF3DZ | {"NO": 36.1881616809528, "YES": 88.62877938955477} | 0.05 | will-germany-buy-at-least-50-of-any | 126.28557435129203 | Will Germany buy at least 50% of any months Russian oil in Rubles before July 2022 | 1656716340000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.176422990334725 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648804602378 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.942435680996309, "platformFee": 0.4431656101730964, "liquidityFee": 2.658993661038578} | 0 | 1690964525988 | 52.224727701637775 | NathanpmYoung | 1691943608507 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529485082}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072298}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225542}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1656702943110 | 1691943605331 | False | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn | markets-against-humanity-you-cant-w | 145.69062949012556 | Markets against Humanity: "You can't wait forever. It's time to talk to your doctor about ..." | 1648871940000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.926620703985179 | True | play | a90107531a86 | public | 1648815753752 | Em ✨ | Market is the judge.
Apr 1, 2:55pm: I'm watching out for obvious whale interference and will push against it. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2123748203949782, "platformFee": 0.8030937050987446, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648874343863 | 560 | hamnox | 1648815753752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6d092890ac71", "prob": 0.00909568225013873, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08465408748154102, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.222408885199796, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648815754022, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.697", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 0.883580561442048, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2f742e499678", "prob": 0.019375417810946406, "text": "Who", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.264567259862777, "userId": "7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.390222662308922, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648817331776, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.698", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8821834444919365, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b9041df6f274", "prob": 0.4222226464635406, "text": "Procrastination", "index": 2, "poolNo": 92.81250465036267, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 127.00636444096433, "textFts": "'procrastin':1", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648818793169, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.739", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 108.5715376620533, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3b59175a52df", "prob": 0.03982724772250095, "text": "Doctor-patient ethics", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.7879644551164706, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.996592605081773, "textFts": "'doctor':2 'doctor-pati':1 'ethic':4 'patient':3", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648832314821, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.739", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 3.868932635900092, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8305b8a80362", "prob": 0.004574751427584569, "text": "MechaHitler", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.030127132574549482, "userId": "nsOLL5tvd6Wn5UBR5Arb0g85Tep2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.555396267208585, "textFts": "'mechahitl':1", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648840263114, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.743", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 0.4444044243939295, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a90107531a86", "prob": 0.4922564121431432, "text": "Immortality.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 182.79770379130719, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 188.54881254041194, "textFts": "'immort':1", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648843075446, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.739", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 185.6509897225569, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d7d4c8ef3cc", "prob": 0.012647842182145574, "text": "Anticipatory Anxiety", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.13905912415654176, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.85563247255279, "textFts": "'anticipatori':1 'anxieti':2", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648862825832, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:54.743", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648874343000, "totalLiquidity": 1.22864752626557, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648857971669 | {"a90107531a86": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24657401723782524 | F4YjNi4KJcfPiRcUO2Eb | {"NO": 571.7921935274139, "YES": 0.32272757611883196} | 1 | will-lesswrong-actually-pay-out-the | 849.0161025783715 | Will LessWrong actually pay out the Good Heart Tokens | 1648922340000 | HRqyoYfqd2cJEaBltoVsWInlcRs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.548205749960827 | True | play | YES | public | 1648830650075 | Leonardo Taglialegne | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1\n\nThis is (quite obviously) an April Fools' post, but it's not 100% clear whether the payouts will be real.\n\nPointing YES: minimum payout, caps on payout\nPointing NO: April Fools', obvious shitpost, no obvious value in actually paying out\n\nApr 1, 10:28pm: I messed up the closing time :( Anyway, I'll resolve as soon as I get confirmation of a payment happening, although it looks like it will be a YES" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.8546295757789375, "platformFee": 1.1424382626298233, "liquidityFee": 6.8546295757789375} | 0 | 1662149805791 | 106.18149961006716 | miniBill | 1662149800691 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjXiay-2U1xC10HDePvL6F8ac2ROVBwZm8KskQtwg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 1662149798652 | 0.9982783582218618 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5492638560347433 | KESszvVWbcNFkRTbdujM | {"NO": 2080.46394699555, "YES": 111.17745215271594} | 1 | will-the-astralcodexten-discord-adm | 3240.279526111676 | Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022? | 1672696740000 | sSyPVMPXuQSSCenwDUp5OmmZVDW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5088574138064474 | True | play | YES | public | 1648830686499 | blank | This market will resolve to YES if the Codex discord server admin on Jan 1st, 2023 is the same as the top voted result in this poll on September 1st, 2022: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th
It will resolve to NO if the admin is someone different. If the server is shut down or otherwise there is no admin on Jan 1st, it will resolve to PROB. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.35233936924096, "platformFee": 2.5362474882224673, "liquidityFee": 15.217484929334807} | 0 | 1674620500394 | 435.2174849293347 | abk | 1674580682390 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465154}] | ["acx"] | 0.5 | 1672625415789 | 1674580680210 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3996696558462306 | BMTHleKuh4AYhOfVfjPS | {"NO": 28.65154500472135, "YES": 33.96608366551233} | 0.39 | in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-man | 34 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities (1% = 2 videos)? | 1676571505102 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.043635709281716 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648832584671 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome website across all of their videos; in past years this has been about $20,000 each to winners. Since 2021, members of the effective altruism community have coordinated to make videos for a shortlist of charities voted on in a Facebook group ahead of time to increase the chances that those charities recieve the grant: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1 In 2021, 59 videos were made across the 8 charities coordinated on. In 2022, 77 videos were made across the 10 charities coordinated on. This will resolve at a % equal to half the total number of videos made supporting charities coordinated on by the EA Project 4 Awesome Facebook group, as listed on Project for Awesome's website.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-17 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-16 6:18 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3381614028316642, "platformFee": 0.05636023380527737, "liquidityFee": 0.3381614028316642} | 0 | 1676735151063 | 30.338161402831666 | Tetraspace | 1676735145225 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104257829}, {"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928040373}] | ["internet", "project-for-awesome"] | 0.4 | 1675273931853 | 1676735142495 | 0.39 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14783306250557068 | rJc8oTr5F4jYO5og8u2B | {"NO": 78.77432028934604, "YES": 161.78826604203869} | 0.07 | in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-muc | 376.396592482472 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities? (1% = $5,000) | 1702146380131 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.108400220379728 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648832727182 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome website across all of their videos; in past years this has been about $20,000 each to winners. Since 2021, members of the effective altruism community have coordinated to make videos for a shortlist of charities voted on in a Facebook group ahead of time to increase the chances that those charities recieve the grant: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2021, the amount granted to EA charities was $194k (39%) between 7 winners of the 8 coordinated on by the Facebook group; in 2019, this was $59k (12%) between 4 winners; in 2018, this was $56k (11%) between 3 winners; in 2017, this was $39k (8%) between 2 winners; in 2016, this was $50k (10%) between 2 winners; and in 2015, the relevant amount was $25k (5%) to the Against Malaria Foundation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve at a percentage equal to the total amount in grants divided by $5,000 made to charities coordinated on by the EA Project 4 Awesome Facebook group, as listed on the Foundation to Decrease World Suck's previous grants page when figures are available.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5716582825215695, "platformFee": 0.09527638042026158, "liquidityFee": 0.5716582825215695} | 0 | 1702146380131 | 90.46782497956227 | Tetraspace | 1702146437373 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104257829}, {"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297578}] | ["internet", "project-for-awesome"] | 0.4 | 1702128948560 | 1702146436634 | 0.07 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08052097802234083 | ju4Q5ZkFVKRZsv86A2op | {"NO": 98.93900072458301, "YES": 138.03516523019078} | 0 | will-amazon-stock-price-drop-below | 110 | Will Amazon stock price drop below 3000 by closing time today? | 1648836000000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.654228284273191 | True | play | NO | public | 1648833134775 | Gurkenglas | Amazon just grew a union in New York. Have I noticed before the market? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8185104322092538, "platformFee": 0.13641840536820898, "liquidityFee": 0.8185104322092538} | 0 | 1653147460131 | 100.81851043220927 | Gurkenglas | 1648833134775 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05906172552342614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5159055783653665 | fcNsJ7l5UWfShjDRFzFo | {"NO": 11.927437752863632, "YES": 11.67470710912335} | 0.5212523153396333 | in-project-for-awesome-2023-what-wi | 34.41880194788125 | In Project for Awesome 2023, what will the product of the amount of money granted to EA charites and the number of videos made for EA charites be? (1% = 200,000 video-dollars) | 1649013089680 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.004680790330756 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648833262847 | Tetra | Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome website across all of their videos; in past years this has been about $20,000 each to winners.
Since 2015, members of the effective altruism community have coordinated to make videos for a shortlist of charities voted on in a Facebook group ahead of time to increase the chances that those charities recieve the grant: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1
In 2021, 59 videos were made across the 8 charities coordinated on and $195,000 was granted, for a product of 11,446,000 video-dollars (57%). In 2022, 77 videos were made across the 10 charities coordinated on and probably around $75,000 was granted (rough guess based on there being three EA winners), for a total of maybe 5,775,000 video-dollars (~30%?).
This will resolve at a % equal to the total number of videos made supporting charities coordinated on by the EA Project 4 Awesome Facebook group, multiplied by the total number of dollars granted to those EA charities by Project for Awesome, divided by 200,000. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5967210772532289, "platformFee": 0.09945351287553815, "liquidityFee": 0.5967210772532289} | 0 | 1649013089680 | 10.380519266337735 | Tetraspace | 1648833262847 | 0 | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297580}] | ["project-for-awesome"] | 0.5 | 1649002153587 | 0.5212523153396335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5062806566166284 | RSeg46yjQXcLSKpMKj21 | {"NO": 451.7145983689367, "YES": 261.70237169690546} | 1 | how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w | 564.4081180053879 | How much mana will be replenished within 8 hours? | 1648837800000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.050460034116384 | True | play | YES | public | 1648834458677 | Gurkenglas | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards\nResolves 0-40% for 0-4000 mana, 40-80% for 4000-20000 mana, 80-100% for 20000-40000 mana, piecewise linear, YES above that.\n\nApr 1, 7:34pm: 8 hours starting as I created this market.\n\n(I guess that means it's gonna be like 560 less than displayed at the relevant time.)\n\nApr 2, 9:21am: Note for posterity: I resolved this when the mana replenished hit 40000 and I feel safe about any disputes since I am the only party that stood to make mana from NO." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.022270794078615, "platformFee": 2.3370451323464363, "liquidityFee": 14.022270794078615} | 0 | 1648856636035 | 307.4265183833396 | Gurkenglas | 1648834458677 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648834492293 | 0.6389861915784978 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5211328682174206 | SKRAlOJaWmxraVrmETLg | {"NO": 2.3351871287253045, "YES": 122.09717526455799} | 0 | will-russia-make-any-major-gains-in | 357.66657571097556 | Will Russia make any major gains in Ukraine in April? | 1651158548004 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.503140938484337 | True | play | NO | public | 1648835997670 | Enopoletus Harding | Needless to say, there is a lot that can go right for the Russian army, so I don't want to speculate. There is also a lot that can go wrong. This market resolves to "yes" if Russia and its allies (DNR, LNR, Belarus') make any major gains in Ukraine in April (the call will be made by me what counts as a "major gain"). If it does not make any major gains, this market resolves to "no". Mariupol and Chernigov will not be counted as a major gain, but a capture (or even full encirclement) of Harkov, a full capture of Mykolaiv, Zaporozhia, Dnipro, Sumy, or Kriviy Rog, or an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbass will be, as well as Russian forces reaching deep into Poltava Oblast. I'll update my thoughts as the month goes on.
Apr 1, 1:59pm: an offensive in Western Ukraine will also obviously count
Apr 1, 2:00pm: taking back Hostomel airport will not count, but gains in the Kiev area beyond Irpin will be
Apr 18, 1:25pm: So far, we haven't seen nothing (or I would resolve it as yes).
Apr 27, 1:18am: Still nothing | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.623570289491811, "platformFee": 0.6039283815819685, "liquidityFee": 3.623570289491811} | 0 | 1651158548004 | 13.254644682826248 | EnopoletusHarding | 1648835997670 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.02038933274075832 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18891166366371426 | g9om4c3VFWHn0eu3FM2a | {"NO": 679.066535716765, "YES": 7749.673140531454} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-introduce-rea | 16517.643700166966 | Will Manifold Markets introduce real money (inc. crypto) trading before 1 Jan 2024? | 1704067140000 | bXr2T22YruXqPdkT8EW0dNpdYgE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7430115559951194 | True | basic | NO | public | 1648839052291 | Greg Colbourn | This market resolves to "YES" if real money trading (including that using cryptocurrency) is available on Manifold Markets before the end of 2023 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.625132854794167, "platformFee": 1.6707040630595538, "liquidityFee": 10.02422437835732} | 0 | 1704117882368 | 1143.7368521245605 | GregColbourn | 1708207456127 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghxx6d4UjKFtXG7CjyCg3_wyT_YiBaBgJNW3DbnyxI=s96-c | 2 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1697876603293}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1697876613579}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703120522041}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703121282371}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1173938379814622 | 0.5 | 1703883354075 | 1708207455698 | 0.02 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5389771402648308 | l9giku0LrsYDMy1qCLZq | {"NO": 22.537242121363846, "YES": 12.272608616838758} | 1 | will-lesswrong-pay-users-1-for-each | 282.9681032010709 | Will LessWrong pay users $1 for each Good Heart Token they earn? | 1648868340000 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.943001905105598 | True | play | YES | public | 1648840484545 | William Kiely | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1
Close date updated to 2022-04-01 9:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7321289417163026, "platformFee": 0.4553548236193836, "liquidityFee": 2.7321289417163026} | 0 | 1653194957189 | 12.354094382291441 | WilliamKiely | 1648840484545 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648866418493 | 0.6822269312482302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5006168544269728 | wt10yenJqgPS0Mlkfnn7 | {"NO": 124.90243902439023, "YES": 81.99075930439966} | 0.6042950739039785 | will-lesswrong-try-some-way-of-fina | 25 | Will LessWrong try some way of financially rewarding users in proportion to their karma in 2022? | 1648844158969 | BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7714866852078295 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648843188951 | hath | This market resolves to YES if before Jan 1 2023, LW has tried some way of making payments to users based on how much karma they have, NOT COUNTING today, April 1st. This resolves to YES if the GoodHeart system lasts past today.
Apr 1, 3:59pm: Update: it resolves YES if they try anything else involving financial rewards for posting, even if it isn't based on karma; this means that the previous book review contest would have counted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5853658536585366, "platformFee": 0.09756097560975611, "liquidityFee": 0.5853658536585366} | 0 | 1648844158969 | 100.58536585365853 | hath | 1648843188951 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1648844182571 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm | whats-the-best-way-to-bootstrap-mar | 754 | What's the best way to bootstrap market a goofy, new generative art NFT project? | 1651471140000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.679286205065794 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648845895552 | Ian Philips | It's women-led nft project that I'm helping launch by doing the smart contract and IPFS work. They're super goofy and remind me of the jay pegs automart team (https://jaypegsautomart.com/). The art theme is 80s/90s generative wrestlers. Looking for wacky ideas. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.560000000000002, "platformFee": 6.140000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651525675451 | 740.0000000000002 | ian | 1651460122059 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6b09b19dcdd4", "prob": 0.43974136172069034, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.75009080285985, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.90351968865483, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648845895732, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.286", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 33.580249440489084, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "88cd07796cb7", "prob": 0.04146936937570799, "text": "Allow list with spots that are earned via tweeting a pic of yourself dressed up as a 80s/90s wrestler with hashtag #FrickinFit", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0037034878306372, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.199787014694067, "textFts": "'80s/90s':18 'allow':1 'dress':14 'earn':7 'frickinfit':22 'hashtag':21 'list':2 'pic':11 'spot':4 'tweet':9 'via':8 'wrestler':19", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846025374, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.305", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 4.825526618264203, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6a6c9f1350b0", "prob": 0.042201099001611224, "text": "Posting sample gifs/images of the wrestlers to build interest before the mint date", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.0307794668614647, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.394638146601864, "textFts": "'build':8 'date':13 'gifs/images':3 'interest':9 'mint':12 'post':1 'sampl':2 'wrestler':6", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846078190, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.306", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 4.910673338369307, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5fbcb17a3ab0", "prob": 0.042890613456789246, "text": "Allow list with spots that are earned via tweeting a pic proving that you just did a workout with the hashtag #FrickinFit", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.056525257015757, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.57649282933473, "textFts": "'allow':1 'earn':7 'frickinfit':22 'hashtag':21 'list':2 'pic':11 'prove':12 'spot':4 'tweet':9 'via':8 'workout':18", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846160837, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.306", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 4.990907747699112, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8c34c773c9e7", "prob": 0.021081200880889894, "text": "Leaning into the WAGMI meme with hashtags like #WagmiWrestlers and #WagmiWarriors", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.35998712634595575, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.71622823633217, "textFts": "'hashtag':7 'lean':1 'like':8 'meme':5 'wagmi':4 'wagmiwarrior':11 'wagmiwrestl':9", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846227252, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.306", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 2.4530851934126425, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52619703d311", "prob": 0.2776614906176783, "text": "Find someone who needs to launder their money.", "index": 5, "poolNo": 75.11931934565078, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 195.42348865607232, "textFts": "'find':1 'launder':6 'money':8 'need':4 'someon':2", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846807698, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.305", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 121.16137772407781, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4efa25215e34", "prob": 0.02325528217323699, "text": "Give away NFTs on Twitter", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.4175506548123595, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.537538073067783, "textFts": "'away':2 'give':1 'nfts':3 'twitter':5", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648846899336, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.306", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7060691983403045, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ac7a3561c312", "prob": 0.02167045430559562, "text": "Scam, spam, lie and otherwise exploit people", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.24628958122810327, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.118935058502121, "textFts": "'exploit':6 'lie':3 'otherwis':5 'peopl':7 'scam':1 'spam':2", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648850137030, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.285", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 1.654834692427302, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ee14fe19293e", "prob": 0.04922113010012031, "text": "Give some NFTs as rewards in a fundraiser for a thematically related charity", "index": 8, "poolNo": 1.3031814663821404, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.172875944964357, "textFts": "'chariti':13 'fundrais':8 'give':1 'nfts':3 'relat':12 'reward':5 'themat':11", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648875732542, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.305", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 5.727549684377636, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0d6e3e9e01a9", "prob": 0.025399461052987075, "text": "Don’t", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.3131194385167384, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.014679086952931, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1650192470402, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.654", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9395952076826497, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5f3f33788b04", "prob": 0.01540853731469299, "text": "Pornhub", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.22430108442891047, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.332634453834386, "textFts": "'pornhub':1", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1650192507396, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.654", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1651525675000, "totalLiquidity": 1.7929934329824573, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533674}] | ["science-default"] | 1651460120741 | 1649017354135 | {"52619703d311": 84.94226153962053, "ee14fe19293e": 15.05773846037947} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4863024789285936 | bR5JWGiyCMCKT0NlZAYB | {"NO": 7.247048741061775, "YES": 490.4866238856955} | 0 | will-the-palestinian-flag-remain-at | 579 | Will the Palestinian flag remain at the conclusion of /r/place? | 1649134740000 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.902076707123377 | True | play | NO | public | 1648851985650 | Mvem | There was originally an Israeli flag on /r/place at (50,660). It has since been mostly replaced by the Palestinian flag. There is still an active fight for that space on the canvas. This market resolves positively if the Palestinian flag remains when /r/place concludes.
Link to the canvas: https://new.reddit.com/r/place/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=place&utm_content=t5_2sxhs&cx=50&cy=660&px=23
Link to what the flag looked like when this question was posted: https://i.imgur.com/nVn9JV1.png
If the flag is still recognizable (by my judgement) in the final image, it counts as remaining.
(Note: other flags elsewhere on the canvas do not count for the purpose of this question)
Close date updated to 2022-04-04 11:59 pm
Apr 5, 9:27am: Am tempted to resolve this as yes because the "spirit" of the original question was asking if the flag would be painted over/vandalized. However, based on the way I described the resolution criteria and based on the market's response to the white out it only seems appropriate to resolve as no, especially given that there is no official final image before the white out. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4276020916423904, "platformFee": 0.5712670152737317, "liquidityFee": 3.4276020916423904} | 0 | 1649172944927 | 53.42760209164239 | Mvem | 1648851985650 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.013794327218932801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22489690225474215 | gr3hKlcwGXQyaOvrtMNe | {"NO": 120.34297690499662, "YES": 663.43495860458} | 0 | will-the-uk-change-the-gender-recog | 1324.7045952425526 | Will the UK change the Gender Recognition Act (GRA) by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8705413926230383 | True | play | NO | public | 1648853923744 | . | Currently the GRA is obsolete and outdated and despite the insistences of the people the (conservative) government continues to refuse to change it.
The last update about it was one week ago, here the link: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/658/reform-of-the-gender-recognition-act/news/165046/Government-misses-clear-opportunity-to-bring-Gender-Recognition-Act-into-the-modern-day
Apr 7, 12:09pm: It is getting worse huh
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/javid-claims-excluding-trans-people-from-conversion-therapy-ban-is-sensitive-approach-q2h2g67xv | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4653743221554397, "platformFee": 0.07756238702590662, "liquidityFee": 0.4653743221554397} | 0 | 1704144937932 | 180.46537432215544 | DG | 1704144938288 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499549}, {"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfwjHy", "createdTime": 1663598453995}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736795135}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131353113}] | ["politics-default", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.3 | 1703738594474 | 1704144932755 | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16 | what-will-happen-after-april-fools | 791.7792887752826 | What will happen after April fools prank ends? | 1648868340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.687019393367327 | True | play | 777bad378637 | public | 1648854355539 | Jenny |
Close date updated to 2022-04-01 10:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.951147576827164, "platformFee": 1.237786894206791, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648933423042 | 479.99999999999994 | Jenny | 1648854355539 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c1f641f8ded3", "prob": 0.005565501703789213, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04044634310724207, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.226884664931908, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854355689, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.172", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5406487369395235, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cbdb291bbd10", "prob": 0.00022484626883308422, "text": "MM buys back all leaderboard positions at the current price", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0004624348447342058, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.0562087615872455, "textFts": "'back':3 'buy':2 'current':9 'leaderboard':5 'mm':1 'posit':6 'price':10", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854461141, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.171", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03083605972568012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5c7998aca9ea", "prob": 0.006618980429269826, "text": "MM buys back all leaderboard positions at the initial price", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.07409721920504184, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.12056032614381, "textFts": "'back':3 'buy':2 'initi':9 'leaderboard':5 'mm':1 'posit':6 'price':10", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854477941, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.172", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 0.907745887442719, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b132a84d20a4", "prob": 0.0013448806852669457, "text": "You keep paying your hourly tax forever MUAHAHAHAHA >:D", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.008742618216377228, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.491921947906008, "textFts": "'d':9 'forev':7 'hour':5 'keep':2 'muahahahaha':8 'pay':3 'tax':6", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854570873, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.172", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 0.23823600710443038, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "fa9eae2fabd0", "prob": 0.0127421378456297, "text": "Nothing interesting happens. The leaderboard resets to normal and you keep all your gains/losses.", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.2564317482217818, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.868271918340163, "textFts": "'gains/losses':14 'happen':3 'interest':2 'keep':11 'leaderboard':5 'normal':8 'noth':1 'reset':6", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854625250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.172", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 2.2571787040829756, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "16266ebb149a", "prob": 0.0005488862048093525, "text": "MM buys back all leaderboard positions by proportionally distributing the \"Mana Replenished\"", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.0012495497967187534, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.275269309249422, "textFts": "'back':3 'buy':2 'distribut':9 'leaderboard':5 'mana':11 'mm':1 'posit':6 'proport':8 'replenish':12", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648855739279, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 0.05332037418147995, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "777bad378637", "prob": 0.9729547668624018, "text": "All leaderboard trades are reverted (or they were never actually real in the first place)", "index": 6, "poolNo": 22.246663351541464, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6183907180149417, "textFts": "'actual':10 'first':14 'leaderboard':2 'never':9 'place':15 'real':11 'revert':5 'trade':3", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648863973493, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:15.168", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648933423000, "totalLiquidity": 3.7090605445848976, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | {"777bad378637": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq | what-will-todays-xkcds-code-do | 478.50866212734286 | What will today's XKCD's code do? | 1649031088684 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.71746104609249 | True | play | f13cd307ae6e | public | 1648854396427 | DAL59 | Today's xkcd was a 9 hour long text to speech audio of code, what will the code do? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.739653514906287, "platformFee": 4.434913378726572, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649031088684 | 380 | DAL59 | 1648854396427 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "94dd08c9486a", "prob": 0.0004654968600294281, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.001406385157352925, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.0198495633017095, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq", "createdTime": 1648854396657, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.972", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649031088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.06516956040411993, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f13cd307ae6e", "prob": 0.015020117981446875, "text": "Draw a turtle", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.3338634224320997, "userId": "RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.89388624268331, "textFts": "'draw':1 'turtl':3", "contractId": "i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq", "createdTime": 1648861003897, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.971", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649031088000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7036212366604375, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "837e71cd3f31", "prob": 0.9831132396098351, "text": "Draw a comic featuring Bob Ross with a paintbrush and palette saying \"a happy little tree holding up a happy little world\" next to a depiction of essentially that ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 38.654156234900604, "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6639555324082679, "textFts": "'bob':5 'comic':3 'depict':26 'draw':1 'essenti':28 'featur':4 'happi':14,20 'hold':17 'littl':15,21 'next':23 'paintbrush':9 'palett':11 'ross':6 'say':12 'tree':16 'world':22", "contractId": "i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq", "createdTime": 1648924453192, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.97", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649031088000, "totalLiquidity": 5.06602811704947, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3d91089fa726", "prob": 0.0014011455486885786, "text": "Exploit a vulnerability in a common Logo interpreter to install a rootkit", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.007347800919311235, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.236790415976506, "textFts": "'common':6 'exploit':1 'instal':10 'interpret':8 'logo':7 'rootkit':12 'vulner':3", "contractId": "i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq", "createdTime": 1648946118197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:12.971", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649031088000, "totalLiquidity": 0.196160376816401, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648924457362 | {"f13cd307ae6e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5074662357071121 | LkiM3qJDwWoxrILb6SUs | {"NO": 29.980000000000004, "YES": 3.602474781439139} | 0.8955544000777729 | will-todays-xkcd-code-be-ran-by-11 | 20 | Will today's xkcd code be ran by 11 AM April 2nd, GMT? | 1648871940000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.710252878547944 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648854535979 | DAL59 | Today's xkcd was a 9 hour text to speech audio of code, will it be successfully run to see what it is by that time? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11999999999999983, "platformFee": 0.019999999999999976, "liquidityFee": 0.11999999999999983} | 0 | 1648916786233 | 10.12 | DAL59 | 1648854535979 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8955544000777729 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48236550363184527 | rWHfMUNQAdxmB4LAn4gv | {"NO": 0.7692259519799844, "YES": 235.78977133681698} | 1 | will-the-worth-the-candle-art-in-rp | 418.2125880991847 | Will the Worth the Candle art in r/place be at least partially recognizable by the end? | 1649131140000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.604292495829522 | True | play | YES | public | 1648854673105 | DAL59 | 236, 113 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0809411819225858, "platformFee": 0.18015686365376435, "liquidityFee": 1.0809411819225858} | 0 | 1649137418453 | 10.990961890217621 | DAL59 | 1648854673105 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1648886647100 | 0.003030844948193559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5092393534496761 | 1d359rP3K2ZbfEGYrK9E | {"NO": 39.98235294117647, "YES": 2.726185649529751} | 0.9383411243476927 | test-d039ae3391fa | 30 | Test | 1648855434656 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.855662925936343 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648855386486 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10588235294117648, "platformFee": 0.01764705882352942, "liquidityFee": 0.10588235294117648} | 0 | 1648855434656 | 10.105882352941176 | Jenny | 1648855386486 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09977750840933046 | kEucn6Xzk2FMJSBUb3st | {"NO": 21.317815581895545, "YES": 16.570983894912644} | 1 | will-mana-replenished-be-below-m-40 | 127 | Will "Mana Replenished" be below M$ 40000? | 1648862700000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.408186304956285 | True | play | YES | public | 1648857625347 | Jenny | Resolves YES if
https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w was resolved incorrectly and the "mana replenished" somehow drops below M$ 40000.
Close date updated to 2022-04-01 9:00 pm
Apr 1, 8:36pm: Resolves YES if
https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w was resolved incorrectly. Ignore the second part.
Close date updated to 2022-04-01 9:25 pm
Apr 1, 9:36pm: Mana Replenished is M$ 560, just as it was when @Gurkenglas created that market. So the correct resolution should have been 0%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.392376832228165, "platformFee": 0.06539613870469417, "liquidityFee": 0.392376832228165} | 0 | 1648863535622 | 20.392376832228166 | Jenny | 1648857625347 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1648857774349 | 0.12479243625991518 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48096231778448556 | fZYWPQttrSG2vgSaFB5X | {"NO": 4.250187592216886, "YES": 209.71926369507682} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-hide-markets-base | 214 | Will I be able to hide markets based on creator by May 1st? | 1651377540000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.404166649843802 | True | play | NO | public | 1648864839602 | Martin Randall | This market resolves to "Yes" if I can hide all markets created by a manifold user that I select on or by May 1st, while still seeing other markets as usual. This market resolve "No" if I cannot.
I will attempt to select a user and hide their markets using a regular browser and will not use undocumented APIs, browser extensions, or similar hacks. Individually hiding markets will not count.
For testing purposes, I will pick the top creator from this leaderboard:
https://manifold.markets/fold/improperly-resolved/leaderboards
If I am unable to access Manifold on May 1st, this market will resolve based on my judgment on whether I would have been able to succeed, had I been able to access Manifold. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.45341369096778, "platformFee": 0.24223561516129674, "liquidityFee": 1.45341369096778} | 0 | 1651494601174 | 26.453413690967782 | MartinRandall | 1648864839602 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651349030603 | 0.018433244294810174 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47023533295256115 | BlBe46Rw7H2JcoDZ9zHq | {"NO": 23.873688308205047, "YES": 654.7473699751083} | 0 | will-sp-500-increase-by-more-than-1 | 1083.9508962731313 | Will S&P 500 increase by more than 15% from today's price at any point by the end of April (1 April 2022 - 4,545.86)? | 1651273140000 | UIwWuC33rgSp3pUiJ50HJWQxXAX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7697031331773987 | True | play | NO | public | 1648879391691 | Natalia Andrecka | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.604719459187137, "platformFee": 0.7674532431978563, "liquidityFee": 4.604719459187137} | 0 | 1651307964888 | 103.78706313906328 | NataliaAndrecka | 1648879391691 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjS4ON3u1apTJICOqs7m-Jsr0nfpFAPMw9h8EH9=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566346}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 0.03135051488266844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY | what-will-be-the-most-common-color | 645 | What will be the most common color when r/place is closed? | 1649130012962 | RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.68972631791806 | True | play | 3231e564ff86 | public | 1648886150527 | sophia | When r/place closes and I (or someone else) am able to analyze the color frequency, I'll pick the name of the most common color. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.6000000000000005, "platformFee": 1.4000000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649130012962 | 320 | a11ce | 1648886150527 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgO1qPCZdYZsdQaawUT0ks9gfJujhBCR3JPgdqq-Q=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6c981102a551", "prob": 0.024037017006189536, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.528119518794053, "userId": "RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.442972761835527, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY", "createdTime": 1648886150814, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.205", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130012000, "totalLiquidity": 3.365182380866535, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ecd67725df57", "prob": 0.010576287482723398, "text": "Red", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.1530864490078127, "userId": "RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.321411266554747, "textFts": "'red':1", "contractId": "BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY", "createdTime": 1648886187527, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.206", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130012000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4806802475812757, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3231e564ff86", "prob": 0.9524067063277447, "text": "White", "index": 2, "poolNo": 38.32274487895784, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.9150491478411644, "textFts": "'white':1", "contractId": "BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY", "createdTime": 1648896074639, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.205", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130012000, "totalLiquidity": 8.566792861005952, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a99de6eef437", "prob": 0.01297998918334235, "text": "Black", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.26792980136613337, "userId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.37382864554972, "textFts": "'black':1", "contractId": "BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY", "createdTime": 1648914826339, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:25.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649130012000, "totalLiquidity": 2.336398053001623, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1648896097624 | {"3231e564ff86": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5405897872202002 | Hm4GwRMF0xvcRDhv48ws | {"NO": 403.17814315339916, "YES": 10.775065151721613} | 1 | will-i-be-convinced-mm-is-usable-by | 532.7634299258805 | Will I be convinced MM is usable by 15th April 2022 | 1649928120000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.482160625643236 | True | play | YES | public | 1648893401596 | Undox | If on 15th April 2022, AEST, when I first think about MM that day, will I think "yeah it is pretty usable".
Currently there seem to be enough bugs to tip it over to the unusable. Here is a chat I sent to someone: "My balance is up and down like a yoyo (no trading), this market I am sure i made a bet but it is not there now https://manifold.markets/LeonardoTaglialegne/will-lesswrong-actually-pay-out-the, the trades page is not loading for me."
In addition to that page loads are quite slow, and I suspect it is client side rendering issues, rather than a slow DB, but can't be sure.
I am not too happy about trading fees, but fees/market making mechanics don't factor into this. Neither does UI or mobile usability.
I am a huge MM fan, so this market really isn't a criticism or even a prediction.
Sorry I mean it is only FOR prediction, but it is not a rant. Although it sounds like one. But I had to explain what the market is about.
Close date updated to 2022-04-14 7:22 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5696463404738923, "platformFee": 0.5949410567456489, "liquidityFee": 3.5696463404738923} | 0 | 1649967982579 | 53.5030162320372 | Undox | 1648893401596 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649201442263 | 0.9777923617994055 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09339360604883758 | sglj4398yB1QoWzyH6DC | {"NO": 46.67836305051233, "YES": 137.53180973796515} | 0 | will-there-be-a-decent-enough-manif | 98.45995481213534 | Will there be a decent enough manifold logo on r/place when it closes | 1649113200000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.249503036685143 | True | play | NO | public | 1648896362552 | Undox | Happy to lose mana to see the coordination happen! Colour should roughly match, can be set against any background color at all, and should look roughly the same as judged by my eyes without reading glasses on.
Close date updated to 2022-04-05 9:00 am
Apr 5, 7:55am: Because https://www.reddit.com/r/place/comments/tw7w7j/day_4_place_will_end_today/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7954424006237097, "platformFee": 0.13257373343728493, "liquidityFee": 0.7954424006237097} | 0 | 1649119135989 | 50.73805550052934 | Undox | 1648896362552 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 1648898324056 | 0.033782044548934964 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8554154698027703 | nkvbqNuaCsA6vYNqQb5b | {"NO": 1.3764157355173825, "YES": 58.29562367382538} | 0 | will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr | 512.8727188054506 | Will I donate $10 to GiveWell in April | 1650092340000 | nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.351029762436612 | True | play | NO | public | 1648914763591 | Oleg S | I will donate $10 to GiveWell foundation in April if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $10.
If you want to indirectly donate your $M to GiveWell, buy NO.
Apr 16, 8:48am: Resolving as NO because payout if YES ($M128) is below what could be bought by $10 ($M1000)
See also an extension: https://manifold.markets/OlegStroganov/will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr-7ebdb347162f | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2453068444071673, "platformFee": 0.20755114073452796, "liquidityFee": 1.2453068444071673} | 0 | 1650169541245 | 101.19395307870398 | OlegStroganov | 1648914763591 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1649345962537 | 0.12256931675692115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2kd9C5mDJUmge7O52Njk | what-will-the-price-of-wti-crude-be | 113 | What will the price of WTI Crude be at | 1648936759656 | IKKpUZOTDBVQACVpkWmC0pTiDyr1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.98013067025711 | True | play | 147a526c2642 | public | 1648923493578 | Leo | https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/wbs00?countryCode=UK | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1648936759656 | 240 | Leo8f15 | 1648923493578 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "41bdbfad0f94", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 98.90445009198807, "userId": "IKKpUZOTDBVQACVpkWmC0pTiDyr1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.386642230471498, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2kd9C5mDJUmge7O52Njk", "createdTime": 1648923493919, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:31.885", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648936759000, "totalLiquidity": 52.04479599028899, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "147a526c2642", "prob": 0.21685331662620405, "text": "kug", "index": 1, "poolNo": 27.386642230471487, "userId": "IKKpUZOTDBVQACVpkWmC0pTiDyr1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 98.90445009198804, "textFts": "'kug':1", "contractId": "2kd9C5mDJUmge7O52Njk", "createdTime": 1648923510617, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:31.883", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1648936759000, "totalLiquidity": 52.044795990288975, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563782}] | ["economics-default"] | {"147a526c2642": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1 | who-will-win-the-democratic-primary | 1340.97901581319 | Who will win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district in 2022? | 1652759940000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.663368164212756 | True | play | 529fc05ef912 | public | 1648937537137 | Matthew Barnett | This question resolves to whoever wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district in 2022. You can find more information about the race here, on Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.800000000000008, "platformFee": 6.200000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653426701744 | 879.9999999999998 | MatthewBarnett | 1652740990498 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "929d14869d41", "prob": 0.009783171361785465, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08211555309346062, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.311435991369544, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937537401, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 0.8261344705507726, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef7e633192f5", "prob": 0.49463520508066144, "text": "Carrick Flynn", "index": 1, "poolNo": 256.64010969277916, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 262.2071277393567, "textFts": "'carrick':1 'flynn':2", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937574395, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 259.40868533119135, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "529fc05ef912", "prob": 0.4561443940724061, "text": "Andrea Salinas", "index": 2, "poolNo": 168.95481853408114, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 201.44284661241213, "textFts": "'andrea':1 'salina':2", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937587149, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 184.48506604706202, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cf6dd4e51852", "prob": 0.002445792840446366, "text": "Matt West", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.010226625081920555, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.171086245248568, "textFts": "'matt':1 'west':2", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937601255, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 0.20653361763769315, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ef1a5ce5d00d", "prob": 0.014516392841754544, "text": "Loretta Smith", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.28972273246969016, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.668591679933076, "textFts": "'loretta':1 'smith':2", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937664047, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.2", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 2.3871401561996364, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0b643c562748", "prob": 0.010566885504622658, "text": "Teresa Alonso Leon", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.17957525338687627, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.814576269151917, "textFts": "'alonso':2 'leon':3 'teresa':1", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937682288, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.2", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 1.737665616315726, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c3ff144f020d", "prob": 0.0005909035502518421, "text": "Kathleen Harder", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.0012133171401944995, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.0521118654169013, "textFts": "'harder':2 'kathleen':1", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937717391, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.199", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 0.04989852202126666, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a23156570b2", "prob": 0.010958212359094076, "text": "Steven Cody Reynolds", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.18967996197539636, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.11970917556796, "textFts": "'codi':2 'reynold':3 'steven':1", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937776485, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.2", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8020171434954704, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b86756037617", "prob": 0.0003590423889775265, "text": "Greg Goodwin", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.0005746026827236238, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.5998010085646428, "textFts": "'goodwin':2 'greg':1", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937880848, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:52.2", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1653426701000, "totalLiquidity": 0.03031913506921335, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490208}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652740990259 | {"529fc05ef912": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5996256970613641 | LlqG7ldSKqIK17NFHZQX | {"NO": 8.517903243757537, "YES": 11.444387756788233} | 0.18 | what-will-i-score-in-the-esperanto | 3 | What will I score in the Esperanto progress quiz at the end of April? (1% = 0.05) | 1651359600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.64577042490994 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648939075729 | Tetra | Past scores:
April 21st 2021 - 0.4 (8%)
December 4th 2021 - 1.1 (22%)
April 2nd 2022 - 2.2 (44%)
Apr 2, 11:37pm: On Duolingo* | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08406255801580448, "platformFee": 0.014010426335967413, "liquidityFee": 0.08406255801580448} | 0 | 1651412557624 | 10.084062558015805 | Tetraspace | 1648939075729 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5330371501884632 | 1d1K6k7VIjUrSHz8x5A7 | {"NO": 31.351402246680536, "YES": 29.39778683900913} | 0.48 | what-fraction-of-2022-stackoverflow | 11.62426933280796 | What fraction of 2022 StackOverflow Developer Survey Respondents will report using Python? | 1668257905183 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.402799096091314 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648942674657 | Bolton Bailey | StackOverflow conducts an annual survey where they ask their users questions about their use of various technologies. Typically, they ask a question about programming language use. For example, in the 2021 survey, they asked "Which programming, scripting, and markup languages have you done extensive development work in over the past year, and which do you want to work in over the next year? (If you both worked with the language and want to continue to do so, please check both boxes in that row.)". According to their esults published at https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2021#technology, 48.24% of respondents answered affirmatively for Python. This question resolves as a percentage to the corresponding percentage in the 2022 survey. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.23859752457722241, "platformFee": 0.0227062539309172, "liquidityFee": 0.1362375235855032} | 0 | 1668257905183 | 30.110448560553145 | BoltonBailey | 1667245179435 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Python Questions", "slug": "python-questions", "groupId": "vBKvNFuJMP6gyWzCIGJ4", "createdTime": 1658529584370}] | ["python-questions"] | 0.5 | 1667245179321 | 1649072163070 | 0.48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48582351822801134 | YT0pSEYAi0eVLLjCzXWZ | {"NO": 3.4701748224611437, "YES": 37.461006565469646} | 1 | will-this-pull-request-get-merged-b | 44 | Will this Pull Request get merged before April 9th? | 1649217619910 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.516687792890416 | True | play | YES | public | 1648943618863 | Bolton Bailey | https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib/pull/12973. Chicago time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5192498985368057, "platformFee": 0.08654164975613429, "liquidityFee": 0.5192498985368057} | 0 | 1649217619910 | 10.519249898536804 | BoltonBailey | 1648943618863 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.08048195115479957 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5006395432005434 | 2onnO73CcUTeLO2oKc1s | {"NO": 20.73388384509878, "YES": 607.4526037084984} | 0 | will-there-be-a-new-wave-of-covid-p | 964.0056038733462 | Will there be a new wave of Covid precautions/worry/danger sometime before September 2022? | 1662015540000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.824321146956922 | True | play | NO | public | 1648948363471 | Conflux | This market isn’t precisely defined, but I’m curious about the answer and promise to resolve it in good faith.
At multiple points in the past, I’ve felt that the pandemic was improving, only to be disproven by new threats like the Delta and Omicron variants. These threats have been accompanied by an increase in precautions like event cancellation and stricter masking policies in my community. But they’re really defined by me feeling like Covid is once again something to seriously worry about.
At the moment I feel like the pandemic is improving, but based on past predictive failures, I’m less confident. This market will resolve YES if there’s a new wave of Covid worry within the next five months (April, May, June, July, August), and NO if Covid worries stay at approximately their current level or decrease further.
Apr 2, 8:32pm: I live in California. I guess it’s kind of selfish, but this market is about waves in other regions only to the degree to which they have an impact here. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.987766203636347, "platformFee": 1.0340384706037626, "liquidityFee": 6.204230823622575} | 0 | 1662040575226 | 106.17577388355755 | Conflux | 1662065020618 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601083}] | ["medicine"] | 0.5 | 1661667634550 | 1662065016438 | 0.03308768303462012 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06669478391760401 | FVHv9WpBN5nOC0bLUKLH | {"NO": 871.9912761288557, "YES": 1910.0326927783067} | 0.031593462738332544 | will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of | 3860.4430199120166 | Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2025? | 1744261140000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1648949328530 | Lars Doucet | The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “calories in, calories out” aren’t sufficient:
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/
But is it true? In five years let’s see if expert consensus (judged as experts I personally deem to be credible and worth listening to) accepts the hypothesis. For my standards this will require a burden of solid evidence backed replicated research.
Closes early if consensus is reached early.
Close date updated to 2025-04-09 11:59 pm
Apr 2, 9:33pm: updated to three years as I screwed up the title, changing closing date to match that. | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.60746096350705, "platformFee": 3.410294931077083, "liquidityFee": 19.436667926091726} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1713898304300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 2 | 75 | 0 | 68 | [{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423261}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526039}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132773984}] | ["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.5 | 1713898301053 | 1674338567174 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05413752442861732 | YJnR9Te6rf6ED89dIAHY | {"NO": 988.2652383452684, "YES": 1170.419012414082} | 0.046100452754857905 | will-lithium-specifically-be-identi | 4717.767931018269 | Will Lithium specifically be identified as a contaminant responsible for the modern obesity crisis? | 1744261140000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1648949752037 | Lars Doucet | Related to this market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of
Same question, but additionally LITHIUM must specifically be identified as a contaminant responsible for causing the observed obesity problems.
Close date updated to 2025-04-09 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004318958455365514} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.952992537852314, "platformFee": 0.8515575753785387, "liquidityFee": 5.109345452271231} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1718821848526 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 59 | 0 | 49 | [{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423571}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529672}] | ["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default"] | 0.5 | 1718821845474 | 1656462137073 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9162242324756457 | ZvniYi4y5VFgrl22Ge0V | {"NO": 3966.4022170143035, "YES": 503.22744239959553} | 1 | will-argentina-win-the-2022-fifa-wo | 74039.59650270957 | Will Argentina win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1671573592984 | pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.190714039606474 | True | basic | YES | public | 1648954069522 | Watt | This market resolves to YES, if Argentina wins the 2022 football World Cup | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.544298919554817, "platformFee": 0.2172927838292737, "liquidityFee": 1.303756702975642} | 0 | 1671573592984 | 1671.3037567029755 | YairNeumann | 1671562348307 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c | 1 | 129 | 0 | 105 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404926}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670883259433}, {"name": "2022 World cup final", "slug": "2022-world-cup-final", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "KtdrK6QDP5f9onFcAUiG", "createdTime": 1671377468920}] | ["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "2022-world-cup-final"] | 0.2 | 1671562348151 | 1671384544980 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30125314477587195 | rKYi1tnO8oonUlhxqhMn | {"NO": 12.145611580561383, "YES": 7.02951187022269} | 0.42690574389120667 | in-project-for-awesome-2023-what-wi-2c82992e65aa | 3.879517170889675 | In Project for Awesome 2023, what will the square of the number of videos made for EA charities be (1% = 200 videos^2)? | 1649013106085 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.48475005095357 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648997858782 | Tetra | Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome website across all of their videos; in past years this has been about $20,000 each to winners.
Since 2015, members of the effective altruism community have coordinated to make videos for a shortlist of charities voted on in a Facebook group ahead of time to increase the chances that those charities recieve the grant: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1
In 2021, 59 videos were made across the 8 charities coordinated on, which is 3481 videos^2 (17%). In 2022, 77 videos were made across the 10 charities coordinated on, which is 5929 videos^2 (30%). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12716271731772155, "platformFee": 0.021193786219620262, "liquidityFee": 0.12716271731772155} | 0 | 1649013106085 | 10.105783084546639 | Tetraspace | 1648997858782 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297580}] | ["project-for-awesome"] | 0.3 | 1648998414887 | 0.4269057438912066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20294350953379817 | RRaNilg524JOFKKqFjAx | {"NO": 10.542889227338277, "YES": 10.753463229377642} | 0.2 | what-will-the-cap-on-payout-for-les | 11.646200445264238 | What will the cap on payout for Lesswrong's April Fools Good Heart tokens be? (1% = $50) | 1649446380000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60694286033026 | True | play | MKT | public | 1648998768478 | Tetra | For April Fools, Lesswrong is paying users $1 for each comment karma and $3 for each post karma, the joke being that the "Good Heart" tokens will lead to people optimising for a proxy of value (Lesswrong upvotes) rather than actual value (good content). This actually kinda worked, so they extended it for a week. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/meYCJHJQDDGh5nSN2/good-heart-week-extending-the-experiment
When first introduced, the cap was $600 (12%), later increased to $1000 (20%). They claim "If people start getting to 1000, we will consider raising it further, but no promises". Will this occur?
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 12:00 am
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 8:33 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26252599697539397, "platformFee": 0.043754332829232336, "liquidityFee": 0.26252599697539397} | 0 | 1650653502293 | 10.234763996480241 | Tetraspace | 1648998768478 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1650653546359 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.75 | iYo6x1LLypt9jYvSzS0D | {"NO": 10, "YES": 10} | 0.75 | will-i-be-able-to-turn-my-existing | 0 | Will I be able to turn my existing "numeric" markets into markets that show up as numeric on the UI by the end of 2023? | 1649085075466 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589110810457088 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1648999888505 | Tetra | Currently, I have a few fake numeric markets, by being probabalistic markets on a scale where 1% = some quantity. These are somewhat ugly. At some point, Manifold might make the UI on these questions look nicer, such as displaying the scale as a scale determined by the question author. It would be nice if this happened AND I was able to convert my existing markets; will this happen? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649085075466 | 10 | Tetraspace | 1648999888505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7009635431320747 | 6Cgqv2F7kJO3NypJQ6sP | {"NO": 78.46923961536339, "YES": 118.17688887320458} | 0 | will-i-complete-japanese-duolingo-c | 113 | Will I complete Japanese Duolingo Checkpoint II before May 1, 00:00 PST? | 1651388400000 | 7AENWPgDP3TMboOTdq51IZjtEBd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.222587778590047 | True | play | NO | public | 1649003330357 | Ana Dalton | This market resolves to YES if at any time before May 1, 2022 00:00 PST I post an image showing that I have completed checkpoint II in Japanese Duolingo. It resolves to NO otherwise.
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 12:00 am
Apr 3, 11:02am: Relevant data: I am at 5/5 non-guilded levels for 18 out of 26 skills before the checkpoint. I have been there fore a few months at least. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2764030321203323, "platformFee": 0.3794005053533887, "liquidityFee": 2.2764030321203323} | 0 | 1651418194279 | 102.27640303212033 | AnaDalton | 1649003330357 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzagSRQP08mzdYQuS-ZspmniK47hJmL_77Ve_Z8=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1651418187545 | 0.6088342117034102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4688060294648831 | fvCD0f39kiWrGJDzgpYg | {"NO": 33.95914879034524, "YES": 26.752647435558558} | 0.5283661858891773 | if-i-order-salted-caramel-huel-this | 74.19110798711804 | If I order Salted Caramel Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4122472178487415 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649012571489 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531657857 | 30.486852528579398 | Tetraspace | 1667246372156 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.33 | 1667246369573 | 0.53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35203958630090143 | JbHRlt9VzjIvKG3NpJXf | {"NO": 23.73934730645383, "YES": 2.382580723868208} | 0.844074664712732 | if-i-order-strawberries-cream-huel | 31 | If I order Strawberries & Cream Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1649188628737 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.408086349624234 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649012619230 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.35354489470163136, "platformFee": 0.05892414911693855, "liquidityFee": 0.35354489470163136} | 0 | 1649188628737 | 10.353544894701631 | Tetraspace | 1649012619230 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 1649188625363 | 0.9218330426538919 |
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