CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.14636349487085198

Lip2RdUC5vDGqm0VR2S8

{"NO": 23.415954895727932, "YES": 138.75684850294675}

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will-we-get-to-level-5-self-driving

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Will we get to Level 5 self driving before Dec 31 2023?

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cpmm-1

0

9.471799672419744

True

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NO

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1648509249760

Auren Hoffman

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AurenHoffman

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[{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039684}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130917465}...

["selfdriving-vehicles", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 279.8383311560022, "YES": 123.57067792219605}

0.07435588213806663

will-a-territory-with-over-10-milli

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Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

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AQxS6BkvuxXSIzEMay4kJyd75eh2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

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1648510294164

Lawrence

Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064) This question resolves yes if a territory containing 10 million or more people, currently recogniz...

BINARY

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Lawrence2

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[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929565}]

["global-macro"]

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1648520699812

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5EFXIr7QBKuvCdSl7iYb

{"NO": 111.87187388629305, "YES": 35.03212764098862}

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did-stalin-die-of-natural-cause

87

Did Stalin die of natural cause?

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cpmm-1

0

4.853993320402163

True

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YES

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1648517561878

Tao Sumer

Joseph Stalin, second leader of the Soviet Union, died on 5 March 1953 at the Kuntsevo Dacha, aged 74. He was given a state funeral, with four days of national mourning declared. According to the BBC, "his last days continue to provoke speculation and argument. [...] Fifty years on, the rumours of intrigues and conspir...

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1650539145951

51.24401068861143

TaoSumer

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will-i-get-the-ftx-blog-prize

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Will I get the FTX blog prize?

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10.395804723273763

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1648523661701

Ozy Brennan

I recommend only investing in this if you know which blog my blog is. Commenters, please don't publicly violate my paper-thin disguise, thank you.

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140.37182022553333

ozymandias272

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1670287912481

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{"NO": 106.93833002568039, "YES": 32.55313489212331}

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will-i-get-in-the-openphil-comms-fe

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Will I get in the OpenPhil comms fellowship?

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B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

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1648523717174

Ozy Brennan

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ozymandias272

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will-there-be-a-sell-button-on-the

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Will there be a sell button on the "new" YES/NO markets (i.e. CCFM) by April 1st?

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jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

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8.618124614712682

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1648533600128

Undox

Resolves YES if a new market created on April 1st has a sell button against your YES/NO trades. Close date updated to 2022-03-29 11:59 pm

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1648588115788

100.88825321526105

Undox

1648533600128

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{"NO": 7.085323859238516, "YES": 619.1889995811822}

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will-the-closing-price-of-the-moex

716.1512198148275

Will the closing price of the MOEX Russia Index be above $3,000 USD on April 29th?

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YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2

cpmm-1

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1648564451026

Scrooge McDuck

Question resolves Yes if the closing price of the MOEX Russia Index is above $3,000, in USD, on April 29th 2022. I'll use Google Finance or Yahoo Finance. I'll go by whatever is the last quoted price shown on the sites, even if the index has had trading frozen for any reason leading up to that. https://finance.yahoo...

BINARY

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1651446591775

53.746155265646095

ScroogeMcDuck

1648564451026

0

https://firebasestorage.…67b-77a20a25abcc

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575494}]

["economics-default"]

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{"NO": 20.641311150254577, "YES": 9.47388957706617}

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will-ding-liren-qualify-for-the-fid

41

Will Ding Liren qualify for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022?

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ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2

cpmm-1

0

10.237754302227287

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YES

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1648567075695

UbiksDemise

This market resolves "Yes" if Ding Liren qualifies for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022 by being the highest rated player with a sufficient number of games played. The exact regulations can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022#Qualifier_by_rating . If the tournament is cancelled for s...

BINARY

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1651390230806

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UbiksDemise

1648567075695

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0.9518642253651031

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who-will-win-the-fide-chess-candida

827.2500539434002

Who will win the FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament 2022 to challenge Magnus Carlsen?

1656967414982

ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2

cpmm-multi-1

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4.699977490387678

True

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cb06dbcaf458

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1648567290587

UbiksDemise

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1656967414982

940

UbiksDemise

1656705328769

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c1-81ec0b6dac0a

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ANYONE

[{"id": "fe2ad26ce419", "prob": 0.0003142810136629242, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0004457952747337939, "userId": "ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.4180149304881107, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EFjZRF7pIOw7WJSuDZLo", "createdTime": 1648567290817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969415}]

["chess"]

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{"NO": 301.2590788954425, "YES": 264.2212720769602}

0.5477317615050945

will-the-phrase-resolution-risk-app

878.4541344657986

Will the phrase "resolution risk" appear in the April 4, 2022 ''Mantic Monday'' column?

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zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-1

0

1.218401416174785

True

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CANCEL

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1648568530727

Alex Power

Apparently quite a few people don't understand what the phrase "resolution risk" means.

BINARY

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0

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271.0198365656127

AlexPower

1648568530727

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{"NO": 46.55129419080413, "YES": 287.76131286119073}

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by-the-end-of-2022-will-the-fda-cho

313.5819008248258

By the end of 2022, will the FDA choose to exercise its enforcement discretion on regulation for tests that offer a human embryo polygenic risk score/assessment?

1672552740000

IzLK4RaL3hgTyXpwnMjbvNpyW4v1

cpmm-1

0

3.8891642869917953

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NO

public

1648572314275

Courtney Grimm

This will stay open through 31 December 2022 and resolve on 1 January 2023 or at any earlier time that the answer is obviously yes. Note that this is for polygenic risk only, not for tests assessing monogenic traits or chromosomal abnormalities. It resolves to yes if there is action on regulation or an FDA announcement...

BINARY

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1702843739530

90.86699466543234

CourtneyGrimm

1702843768439

0

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["science-default", "please-resolve", "biotech"]

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{"NO": 23.94683203776264, "YES": 151.57371617607566}

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will-there-be-drama-about-what-mm-d

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Will there be drama about what MM, discord, or LessWrong do for April fool's this year?

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5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

5.421055110327986

True

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YES

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1648574279760

Em ✨

Subjective judgment based on what I happen to hear about. Apr 2, 4:20pm: there was an argument over the resolution on a market about the leaderboard, and some wonkiness about the refunds

BINARY

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0

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1648944144797

42.50775180052012

hamnox

1648574279760

0

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{"NO": 244.20956482285868, "YES": 795.348196957115}

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will-i-convince-dreev-within-four-h

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Will I convince @dreev within four hours that my implementation of decision markets works with non-binary outcomes?

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cpmm-1

0

0.9776785002772423

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CANCEL

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1648577091730

Gurkenglas

Robin Hanson's scheme for decision markets uses two markets on whether things will go well if an action is or isn't taken. All bets about the condition that didnt happen are undone. You can do this with fewer moving parts: One market with four outcomes. Now whoever stakes on one side gets a "loan" for the other; whoeve...

BINARY

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Gurkenglas

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{"NO": 420.0104538417351, "YES": 5379.1539857910875}

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will-i-run-at-least-500-hours-in-20

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Will I run at least 500 hours in 2022?

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cpmm-1

0

1.0446140699442164

True

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NO

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1648584230571

howtodowtle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2022. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., s...

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howtodowtle

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Will I win a prize in the FLI Worldbuilding Contest?

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1648588951496

Alicorn

This market resolves to YES if as a direct result of my submitting an entry to the FLI worldbuilding contest they give me any sum of money. (An indirect result, like them asking to commission some further work, does not count.)

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Alicorn

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{"NO": 57.87403404212376, "YES": 19.846112022650402}

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will-i-win-first-prize-in-the-fli-w

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Will I win FIRST prize in the FLI Worldbuilding Contest?

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Alicorn

This market resolves to YES if my submission to the FLI Worldbuilding Contest is given first place. Tying for first, if they decide to rejigger things so that's possible which it isn't rules-as-written, also counts.

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Alicorn

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will-there-be-a-crying-baby-ony-fli

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Will there be a crying baby ony flight?

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1648592695803

Em ✨

5 hour flight. I must know. Mar 29, 3:24pm: on my. Not ony

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hamnox

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Will I visit at least 7 friends in new york?

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NO

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Em ✨

There for a week.

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hamnox

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{"NO": 42.552994579456055, "YES": 307.57566213500877}

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Will there be a successful ceasefire in Yemen during the month of Ramadan?

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qCMkdLlW1IRTHSUSDoru5KvJc4H2

cpmm-1

0

3.063732778616063

True

play

YES

public

1648593697785

Jonathan Mohrbacher

The UN has been trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Yemen to span the entire holy month of Ramadan. On March 21, the Houthis praised the move, saying it was a positive step: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-21/yemen-houthis-say-u-n-calls-for-truce-in-ramadan-a-positive-step-spokesman On March 29, the...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1651497079740

104.6718113220744

JonathanMohrbacher

1651454931576

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgfrSMqgqoEzHBAx1E7zwk8vqC9TcGH0gXcnE9x=s96-c

8

0

1

0.5

1651454931437

1649888515600

0.1128924661708623

0.7028239775974003

zmQHBfsfzVYJPmRszW1s

{"NO": 169.91668944456347, "YES": 30.674191340667562}

1

will-the-wikipedia-article-for-geor

120

Will the Wikipedia article for [[George Washington]] be a Good Article on May 15, 2022?

1648594827910

zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-1

0

5.535352438513056

True

play

YES

public

1648594497018

Alex Power

Will the Wikipedia article for [[George Washington]] be a Good Article on May 15, 2022? It possibly already is, but Wikipedia is blocked on my computer so I can't check. If it is, then this is easy money. If it isn't ... well, you can improve it. Featured Articles also resolve as yes, Military-Project A-Class article...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.49986333261896443, "platformFee": 0.08331055543649409, "liquidityFee": 0.49986333261896443}

0

1648594827910

50.499863332618965

AlexPower

1648594497018

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c

1

0

0.7

0.9290817197491004

0.08745593248579869

2Wk1muCz4O1iWljONyDQ

{"NO": 21.98815324205347, "YES": 103.25718086412334}

0

will-dearmoon-launch-in-2023-as-pla

352.0115223820063

Will DearMoon launch in 2023 as planned?

1699592788990

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

9.927280295801046

True

play

NO

public

1648601603085

DAL59

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1699592788990

30.528191239877323

DAL59

1697980873448

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

8

0

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6

0.5

1697980873122

0.02

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{"NO": 20.76224575226354, "YES": 595.4151554713615}

0

will-dearmoon-launch-in-2024-1-year

600.3244610929978

Will DearMoon launch in 2024 (1 year behind scheduled date of 2023)

1719542847082

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1648601753822

DAL59

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.009999999999999997}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.43602581439542587, "platformFee": 0.027553086423496784, "liquidityFee": 0.1653185185409807}

0

1719542847082

50.16531851854098

DAL59

1719542847082

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

7

0

1

3

0.5

1717262052503

1719394530234

0.01

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG

how-many-copies-of-this-book-will-s

187

How many copies of this book will sell at the farmers market this April? Relevant Sales figures for forecasting: Sold 11 Copies over March.

1651407772545

I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.851509294905489

True

play

45f47e6e0ad8

public

1648607816109

ben truitt

I will choose the answer that is closest to the actual sales figures for April. Relevant figures for forecasting: Sold 11 Copies over March at 4 Saturday markets April has 5 Saturday markets, but markets are canceled in Oregon if the weather is too severe. Weekly sales range from 30- 60 sales per day in March Link ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.32, "platformFee": 1.83, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1651407772545

620

bentruitt

1648607816109

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "240271ff2088", "prob": 0.6434270353741885, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.1088430921377, "userId": "I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.88996286737177, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AGhcRZTgz552VwfppoWG", "createdTime": 1648607816291, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...

1651344135038

1648717608313

{"45f47e6e0ad8": 100}

True

0.7524533144285909

PSUvRoQjSzCMEKPtxCww

{"NO": 372.9882861439951, "YES": 68.14440106741105}

1

will-my-family-enjoy-our-trip-to-ha

301

Will my family enjoy our trip to Hawaii?

1649228340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.9642466078778433

True

play

YES

public

1648614120605

Austin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8845430996218966, "platformFee": 0.31409051660364945, "liquidityFee": 1.8845430996218966}

0

1650063512899

101.8845430996219

Austin

1648614120605

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

0

1

0.75

1648818375822

0.9433025470311887

0.470082984177202

2f3EdYzR7mSnrNw5SSUS

{"NO": 32.80191541725031, "YES": 568.3230496846681}

0

will-sky-mavis-recover-at-least-90

879.8902109667652

Will Sky Mavis recover at least 90% of the stolen funds lost in the Ronin blockchain hack?

1651381140000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

0

3.28059615484701

True

play

NO

public

1648618101358

Lars Doucet

Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm Mar 31, 7:27pm: To be clear, a bail-out where investors or founder or whatever replace the money with *new money* doesn't count for this. They have to recover the tokens that were actually stolen.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1651385952833

109.68253059640652

LarsDoucet

1648618101358

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

13

0

1

0.5

1651379367344

1649252176923

0.04870630868278854

0.8541142544539759

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{"NO": 6714.903390214829, "YES": 632.3776332704092}

1

will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of

21867.89049242416

Will Artemis I launch by the end of 2022？

1670881783354

2wowx4OaDib3TQ01jl1GlVQB2KT2

cpmm-1

0

1.0236396325363302

True

basic

YES

public

1648631397494

Bolivian Alpaca

https://www.space.com/news/live/nasa-artemis-1-moon-mission-updates

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.079713565163273, "platformFee": 0.07695075305871613, "liquidityFee": 0.4617045183522967}

0

1670881783354

1003.4617045183522

Bolivian_Alpaca

1670881775823

0

https://firebasestorage.…ddb-ae5b6aff56e3

0

62

0

47

[{"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1661272568890}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462007}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "uyz...

["space", "artemis-1", "please-resolve"]

0.8

1670881775629

1669056840315

0.98

0.06999592211398849

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{"NO": 20.52568245350786, "YES": 20.52568245350786}

0.06999592211398849

will-ramzan-kadyrov-launch-a-coup-a

5.713929114440775

Will Ramzan Kadyrov launch a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023?

1648637801118

2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2

cpmm-1

0

9.783474225949046

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648637235490

Giovanni

This market will resolve to YES if the BBC reports that Ramzan Kadyrov has led a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023 A helpful thread for some context: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508972381062238208?s=21&t=B_qr-4Apqp8GRrxEgHC0Sg

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.13203263371275462, "platformFee": 0.022005438952125773, "liquidityFee": 0.13203263371275462}

0

1648637801118

20.01128632283548

Giovanni

1648637235490

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c

1

0

0.07

1648637470503

0.06089752118366374

0.07245966475071573

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{"NO": 88.94397428179111, "YES": 258.9920974793512}

0

will-ramzan-kadyrov-launch-a-coup-a-a6963b3b0a1c

1017.3905139984538

Will Ramzan Kadyrov launch a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023?

1704067140000

2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2

cpmm-1

0

9.263611230236966

True

play

NO

public

1648637779300

Giovanni

This market will resolve to YES if the BBC reports that Ramzan Kadyrov has led a coup against Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2023. A helpful thread for some context: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508972381062238208?s=21&t=B_qr-4Apqp8GRrxEgHC0Sg

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.277145201852735, "platformFee": 0.046190866975455824, "liquidityFee": 0.277145201852735}

0

1704380332519

110.24485025526211

Giovanni

1704380332742

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c

20

0

1

14

[{"name": "coup d'état", "slug": "coup-detat", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "wiaUz7jXkuNBbkBpCwdD", "createdTime": 1670540267753}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227349}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 202...

["coup-detat", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.05

1693722235277

1704380314905

False

0.03

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.5

jRh4pME3nm1AgluWtxZR

{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}

0.5

do-buffalo-buffalo-buffalo-buffalo

0

Do Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo?

1649070715173

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

9.591581091193483

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648637885701

Undox

Is a joke will just resolve NA

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649070715173

10

Undox

1648637885701

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

0

0.5

0.5310121290190842

lzSqrYoV6jp52XNzcmvz

{"NO": 11.102924297241376, "YES": 15.581056060652566}

0.44654522926418067

should-the-change-to-displaying-vol

94.22281756026325

Should the change to displaying volume instead of liquidity/pool be reverted?

1649282340000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

8.61032174147537

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648639052592

Gurkenglas

Opinion poll, will resolve N/A.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654717634815

10.853514303172949

Gurkenglas

1648639052592

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

7

0

1

0.5

1648857454972

0.4465452292641807

0.5004221952869314

qBSSTDbhgkgrnZUHySUk

{"NO": 119.91803278688525, "YES": 85.06355142298693}

1

will-manifold-markets-disable-autom

20

Will Manifold Markets disable automatic zooming when selecting input fields on mobile browsers before the end of 2022?

1649420424107

QyZQkZ4RCeUQqieJiwdhHcs7ygH3

cpmm-1

0

2.767784700305585

True

play

YES

public

1648646417291

Chris Martin

Currently, when selecting input fields such as entering the amount M$ to place into a market on mobile browsers (e.g. Safari on iPhone), the viewport zooms into the input field. This can be fixed by setting 'maximum-scale=1' in the viewport meta tag (https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2989263/disable-auto-zoom-in-inp...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.49180327868852447, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447}

0

1649420424107

100.49180327868852

ChrisMartin

1648646417291

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxHcCZQxtIEweM66bS0olRtxzbsos3eh_A_r4S=s96-c

1

0

0.5

0.5854284972943996

0.3092086227930028

YJXQ8rdtCaUGFk9hzT1E

{"NO": 15.567731395822623, "YES": 571.2252860464519}

0

will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-5156bffccaf3

776.0853383136044

Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before May 2022?

1651355940000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

0

6.716715278559265

True

play

NO

public

1648648279816

Zhao Nan

Apr 1, 10:00am: also see https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84 and https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6 for markets for "before june" and "before july". Thanks @JonathanMohrbacher for the insightful comments.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1651480311379

37.578849072596824

ZhaoNan

1648648279816

0

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

20

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492318}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226741}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.33

1651299526117

1648993566255

False

0.012051933045624096

6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc

how-many-republicans-will-vote-to-c

658.6546798324854

How many Republicans will vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court?

1649170088510

I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.690361455727231

True

play

ef3883c36de1

public

1648656836658

ben truitt

Based on the confirmation vote on 4/4

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 17.973812806700586, "platformFee": 4.4934532016751465, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649170088510

580

bentruitt

1648656836658

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bb2210a8ee36", "prob": 0.006116021838167646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.043179559328351706, "userId": "I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.016893225056648, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6kpEksYr71W7d5hNj4kc", "createdTime": 1648656837012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471288}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330762}]

["politics-default", "scotus"]

1649112305394

{"ef3883c36de1": 100}

True

0.39125669735816515

nZZGKpbyoHnXuMge7frN

{"NO": 1007.8223611104904, "YES": 1028.2546575066483}

0.38648687574793633

faucet-borrow-money-forever

447.1380207306252

Faucet. Borrow money forever.

1717624980000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

9.64531300754299

False

basic

public

1648678276891

Undox

I wont resolve this. So you just buy 20 yes and then sell it right away. You now have a 20 loan and probably about 18 extra cash to spend (2 to trading fees) Can only do this once each. In theory I could set up 100 of these so you can borrow ~1800M. I am too lazy to do that. Mar 31, 5:18pm: Some of you have left mon...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.917530581556812, "platformFee": 0.9862550969261351, "liquidityFee": 5.917530581556812}

0

1000

Undox

1717303250662

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

12

0

2

12

0.5

1717303249628

0.5236002916397208

ZkKVfIml4mFVnAHU3CNk

{"NO": 1084.6790831069984, "YES": 16.100266033259516}

1

will-the-book-what-we-owe-the-futur

1837.3393137531095

Will the book What We Owe the Future hit the NYT Best Sellers list in 2022?

1661444966933

CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2

cpmm-1

0

4.315402194730875

True

play

YES

public

1648688344566

causal_agency

This market resolves to YES if What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill appears on the New York Times Best Sellers list (https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/) in any category during any week in 2022. Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 19.31553774447167, "platformFee": 1.6493068835627942, "liquidityFee": 9.895841301376764}

0

1661444966933

109.89584130137676

causal_agency

1661436058059

0

https://firebasestorage.…4d6-733e72d9efa8

19

0

20

0.5

1661436057833

0.9866746881631717

0.22699204221789146

cxLk1ik8FfHUQ1DBh8Ds

{"NO": 395.78164332476985, "YES": 1.354550930446261}

1

will-manifold-markets-become-openso

1386.675362535118

Will Manifold Markets become open-source?

1651183140000

AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342

cpmm-1

0

6.423576794911352

True

play

YES

public

1648689545458

Sjlver

This market resolves YES if the manifold team officially expresses their intent to publish Manifold Markets as open-source software. It will resolve NO otherwise, including if no announcement or official statement has been made before the end of April. It may resolve to NO earlier, if there is an official statement th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.891980236127248, "platformFee": 2.4819967060212074, "liquidityFee": 14.891980236127248}

0

1651224086864

114.06767426224745

Sjlver

1648689545458

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c

28

0

1

0.1

1651224069404

0.9884792544908598

0.6386163125984813

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{"NO": 7.861432453510689, "YES": 185.7370041707627}

0

will-covid19-case-numbers-increase

308

Will Covid-19 case numbers increase in Germany after the mask mandate ceases to exist in many places?

1649973540000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

0

5.2927828850805465

True

play

NO

public

1648718418236

Zhao Nan

In Germany, the mask mandate ceases to exist in most places after this saturday (April 2nd). This market resolves YES if the number of reported Covid-19 cases (7-day average) is higher on April 16th than it was on April 2nd. I'll take the numbers from the RKI: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronaviru...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.916678102173912, "platformFee": 0.8194463503623188, "liquidityFee": 4.916678102173912}

0

1650112133881

54.916678102173904

ZhaoNan

1648718418236

0

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

13

0

1

0.66

1648887229967

0.06959033496994597

0.23511506572196506

8U3lICT4BoLJovOwewwq

{"NO": 80.88733714180421, "YES": 631.7610830719119}

0

will-germany-and-russia-sign-a-gas

1035.4551391226994

Will Germany and Russia sign a gas delivery contract with payment in RUB by the end of 2022?

1672527540000

uGnFQw9PlWPidF1wkeYcUHpyUVi2

cpmm-1

0

3.615188516320561

True

play

NO

public

1648735861575

Dan Cîrnaț

Germany declares officially they are paying for Russian gas exclusively in roubles (RUB) Apr 16, 8:48pm: @JonathanMohrbacher The "buy through Gazprombank" scheme doesn't have any effect on payments from the POV of the buyers. That is merely the Russian government forcing Gazprom to convert euros to roubles. I will on...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.9221898970253353, "platformFee": 0.47407821587241417, "liquidityFee": 2.8444692952344846}

0

1673204571282

162.8444692952345

DanCirnat

1672687971042

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMS0xLsXKR4mg35lNu4bzK5er6gDJWMHEvQeZf=s96-c

14

0

2

13

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472914}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565352}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g...

["politics-default", "economics-default", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1672152523902

1672687969931

False

0.04

0.9865758420064574

RD5e8hSzb8DDyzBsx7kT

{"NO": 0.001660844154590215, "YES": 10.999928672359445}

0

will-russia-control-hostomel-airpor

1

Will Russia control Hostomel Airport as of May 1, 2022?

1650814266493

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1648741146386

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to "yes" if Russia maintains control of Hostomel airport as of May 1, 2022 and to "no" if Ukraine controls it. If there is credible information it is contested as of that date, the market will resolve N/A. Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm Mar 31, 3:30pm: if it loses control and gains it ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0004279658433224374, "platformFee": 7.132764055373957e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0004279658433224374}

0

1650814266493

10.000427965843322

EnopoletusHarding

1648741146386

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

1

0

0.99

0.010974629499165379

so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It

will-my-friend-use-mechanical-turk

1457

Will my friend use Mechanical Turk or Positly for his categorization task?

1648750004078

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6601528890685255

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648742794371

Nuño Sempere

A friend of mine is looking into predictions made by the three great scifi authors (Helein, Clarke, Asimov). He thinks he is being clever and saving money by using Mechanical Turk rather than Positly for time-intensive categorization stuff. But I think Positly is ze good shit, and worth it for the guided track integrat...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.547473508864641e-15, "platformFee": 1.1368683772161603e-15, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648750004078

340

NuñoSempere

1648742794371

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "dc661bb32e83", "prob": 0.2123638216993353, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.232418151654892, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.07771568267283, "textFts": "", "contractId": "so9aXtu5O6hD9ZM9d4It", "createdTime": 1648742794598, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1648743987891

True

0.49957780471306884

UTHejnnQBZQsFK8pC8Gi

{"NO": 10.187388823612139, "YES": 250.93090989503108}

0

will-cosmos-interchain-security-v1

200.97189350158845

Will Cosmos' Interchain Security v1 will be released before October 1st 2022?

1664578939297

wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2

cpmm-1

0

5.436345700896525

True

play

NO

public

1648748173021

O

This markets resolves to YES if is implemented and released official on Github before October 1st. https://hub.cosmos.network/main/roadmap/cosmos-hub-roadmap-2.0.html

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.24590163934426235, "platformFee": 0.04098360655737706, "liquidityFee": 0.24590163934426235}

0

1664578939297

50.24590163934426

o

1664555584096

0

https://firebasestorage.…35d-e561bc66da0d

5

0

5

0.5

1664555583864

0.03895119062752944

MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA

will-my-friend-use-mechanical-turk-dae5dd11b430

1723.9999999999998

Will my friend use Mechanical Turk or Positly for his categorization task?

1649390340000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.66691873423878

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648750152982

Nuño Sempere

A friend of mine is looking into predictions made by the three great scifi authors (Helein, Clarke, Asimov). He thinks he is being clever and saving money by using Mechanical Turk rather than Positly for time-intensive categorization stuff. But I think Positly is ze good shit, and worth it for the guided track integrat...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08111349939800676, "platformFee": 0.02027837484950169, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672531158374

460

NuñoSempere

1672531157839

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a909c04150de", "prob": 0.2829334540516071, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.32691153928274, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.05092460515817, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MZ1pqRuRR0uRG5Q5aobA", "createdTime": 1648750153334, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

3

1672531195069

True

0.21855637780999299

hnK8Pgf47dPrROs2JSH7

{"NO": 77.66139556056655, "YES": 819.944410278032}

0

will-germany-reopen-nordstream-2-in

1292.9961484931607

Will Germany reopen NordStream 2 in 2022

1672527540000

D3k0mi76wPdh7kx3iwJxjyTco5C2

cpmm-1

0

3.93356698072442

True

play

NO

public

1648756313331

Robertas Strumila

This market resolves to YES if Germany decides to import again the gas grom Russia via the NordStream 2 pipeline. At any time in 2022. Market closes 2022 12 31.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.0929481394094696, "platformFee": 0.8780690124747017, "liquidityFee": 5.268414074848209}

0

1672557679470

165.26841407484824

RobertasStrumila

1671229425026

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjnawp3zTKrIv6o3ye4-t5nQVqUKTQOGjGVk1j2xiY=s96-c

33

0

1

33

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500435}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573546}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g...

["politics-default", "economics-default", "global-macro"]

0.5

1671229424905

1648826309656

0.03

0.23305342835405615

uen0VZN0moO94pa4Wonb

{"NO": 6681.430379955014, "YES": 5368.981291806944}

0.2743913395926813

will-joe-biden-born-20-november-194

16415.32331572587

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

1893542340000

S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2

cpmm-1

0

5.148943686491621

False

basic

public

1648761271563

jon jordan

This market will resolve when either Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin is pronounced dead, or on 1st January 2030 if both remain alive. Apr 1, 11:06pm: In the unlikely event that both men are still alive on 1st January 2030, the market will be resolved as void (N/A).

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.034585893863219475, "month": -0.03487468221141965}

0

{"creatorFee": 58.451314717811, "platformFee": 4.940664619712512, "liquidityFee": 20.99753774162933}

0

6395.997537741627

jonjordanc3f0

1720095566958

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c

0

130

2

72

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510180}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856964}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug"...

["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.2

1720095563848

1689010949551

False

U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I

why-is-asmodia-thinking-implausibly

2931.1263130306925

Why is Asmodia thinking implausibly quickly?

1664716961890

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.632786488152408

True

basic

ab122efc3741

public

1648767751897

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since Otolmens' intervention, which may or may not have give her 20 extra points of INT for a few minutes, Asmodia has thought implausibly quickly on a few occasions: * \"Asmodia, having thought implausibly fast\" https://glowfic.com/replies/176750...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.18977425597286585, "platformFee": 0.04744356399321646, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664716961890

1360.0000000000002

Tetraspace

1664723472337

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

31

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "99b2a8570631", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.077276949617599e-05, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7076569221922635, "textFts": "", "contractId": "U3JH0AheHE7Kd8zkk05I", "createdTime": 1648767752251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...

31

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392619}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544605}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

1664690347752

1664723470761

{"ab122efc3741": 100}

True

0.5097095035805809

UXuaCYbltoZPwUEmYkEq

{"NO": 10.604975536759827, "YES": 10.314502665389398}

1

will-taiwan-remove-its-10day-covid

320

Will Taiwan remove its 10-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?

1651879062783

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

9.433386329998847

True

play

YES

public

1648771675002

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to yes if Taiwan removes or reduces its 10 day COVID quarantine requirement by June 1, 2022. It resolves to no if this requirement is not removed or reduced by that date.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4303426103387359, "platformFee": 0.07172376838978932, "liquidityFee": 0.4303426103387359}

0

1651879062783

10.430342610338734

EnopoletusHarding

1648771675002

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

2

0

0.5

0.516647656145178

thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz

in-what-quadrant-will-the-plurality

113.12928422217567

In what quadrant will the plurality of takers of my political quiz from this website end up in?

1649826288404

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.15788961062016

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648772353212

Enopoletus Harding

I will choose the answer on April 15. Here is my political quiz: https://enopoletus.github.io/quiz/ Post your scores (i.e., your exact scores, not just the quadrant -the latter answers will not be counted) in a comment here. Mar 31, 8:19pm: I will not choose any response options other than those submitted by me. Mar ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3382206189242245, "platformFee": 0.08455515473105613, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649826288404

460

EnopoletusHarding

1648772353212

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "24695afab850", "prob": 0.021082922226667987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.37128252036091636, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.239298990549255, "textFts": "", "contractId": "thVT6MpSBXQTwcy31QTz", "createdTime": 1648772353405, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509316}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867721}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

1649160097208

False

True

0.32975515002909866

XlvCfARg5kCMQyH1aMgK

{"NO": 98.47290193165458, "YES": 16.2996089272359}

1

will-there-be-more-personal-markets

150

Will there be more personal markets in April?

1650081540000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

5.0572361026435

True

play

YES

public

1648775222289

Em ✨

Eugh, I've had enough global economic and politics. Where's all the markets about what people are going to eat for breakfast? Resolves yes if I see what feels like an adequate steam of dumb mundane questions going in Newest by the 15th.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.55462238731355, "platformFee": 0.4257703978855917, "liquidityFee": 2.55462238731355}

0

1650391513337

52.55462238731355

hamnox

1648775222289

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

10

0

1

0.3

0.7482588512462613

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{"NO": 104.31093329450972, "YES": 132.55231602959208}

0.3087695886677705

if-mm-launches-a-token-in-2022-will

468

If MM launches a token in 2022, will it have a market cap of $20M by Jan 2023? (CFMM)

1654224561515

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

2.7378231553685315

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648775655975

Em ✨

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-launch-a-token-in-2022-will-i Because I didn't care to enter the DPM version

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654224561515

107.10109866291518

hamnox

1654224556783

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

11

0

0.35

1654224547694

0.30876958866777054

0.9896842953967154

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{"NO": 13.347322391229536, "YES": 102.58076393996662}

0.925833641754048

will-garrett-baldwin-feel-old-on-su

14

Will Garrett Baldwin feel old on Sunday while watching the Grammys?

1649044740000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

9.979126448613563

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648776714004

David Glidden

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=22m Apr 4, 6:56am: Resolving N/A as the point of this market was mainly just to show the benefit of a Manifold Market.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2450977994362155, "platformFee": 0.04084963323936925, "liquidityFee": 0.2450977994362155}

0

1649069805164

100.24509779943622

dglid

1648776714004

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

3

0

1

0.99

0.9258336417540483

sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz

who-will-win-the-tourney-for-twitte

18013.385172999577

Who will win the tourney for twitter user Aella's hand?

1649028334447

w0WIU9eaFjgrqQcjKAurMaFjRBu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.619060596609323

True

basic

c9df510413ba

public

1648776789123

INSUFFERABLE PEDANT

@Aella_Girl is conducting a bracket tournament of twitter polls (may be viewed here: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1509664615365545994) in which she will ask the winner out. Contestants (chosen from user submissions) are: @Acidshill @Antonoiogm @Tjdrii @Tszzl @Turrible_tao @Swipe_Wright @VaushV @VitalikButeri...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 171.59255758806893, "platformFee": 42.89813939701723, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649028334447

1819.9999999999998

transfemsuprem

1648776789123

0

https://firebasestorage.…f96-9e5159fe5c91

45

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "588fc0d51aea", "prob": 0.001558676676036636, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005200485194140489, "userId": "w0WIU9eaFjgrqQcjKAurMaFjRBu1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.331274150048463, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sJXky8thZZWYF3KV0tGz", "createdTime": 1648776789301, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1648997344277

{"c9df510413ba": 100}

True

0.8881294293869817

7mUC9uEmynZrSoVhQEDV

{"NO": 1476.9833554311942, "YES": 895.1801482670738}

0.9290710757500608

will-president-yoon-finish-his-term

2026.200089764163

Will President Yoon finish his term in office?

1807156740000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.17304738861453

False

basic

public

1648780284962

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to "yes" if President Yoon of South Korea finishes his term in office. It will resolve to "no" if it is not finished or does not start.

BINARY

{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4720729422704695, "platformFee": 0.07867882371174492, "liquidityFee": 0.4720729422704695}

0

1000

EnopoletusHarding

1708557561498

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

2

13

0

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472480}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1708557561310

0.29315791195321467

nLcVDY3evaspzY4ozgK1

{"NO": 77.25880716853177, "YES": 604.9496996921055}

0

will-we-see-a-new-spice-and-wolf-an

497.03244217937805

Will we see a new "Spice and Wolf" anime in 2022?

1672551510069

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

3.04920241456167

True

play

NO

public

1648784001801

Anton Paquin

In February we saw this tweet https://twitter.com/Spicy_Wolf_Prj/status/1497119488525094914 This resolves yes if any new episode of Spice and Wolf publicly airs in 2022. - "Wolf and Parchment" is also acceptable - Either a movie or any episode of what is planned to be a full season - Shorts or previews don't count -...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1672551510069

161.8661630328343

citrinitas

1672340036683

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

10

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10

[{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "userId": "PFBRdH9O4uUy0MvKLQEXD32m8uH2", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1672139696688}]

["anime"]

0.5

1672340036509

1648829970308

0.05

0.18374464639122662

37OxDEKqeIdhnvSAL2X8

{"NO": 23.04468579483563, "YES": 367.1906174571334}

0

will-hoshi-no-samidare-rate-highly

465.26572278628385

Will "Hoshi no Samidare" rate highly on MyAnimeList?

1672436704977

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

9.411598179241825

True

play

NO

public

1648787421286

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Hoshi no Samidare\" AKA \"Lucifer and the Biscuit Hammer\" is an anime planned for the summer season of 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"yes\" if the MyAnimeList score at ",...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0.2243208279430789, "platformFee": 0.03738680465717982, "liquidityFee": 0.2243208279430789}

0

1672436704977

54.22432082794308

citrinitas

1672436688126

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

5

0

5

[{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1663359048832}]

["media-rating-futures"]

0.5

1667246243294

1672436689553

0.01

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kpUwJ1ZcKsSzOvMF76ou

{"NO": 4.115428273655677, "YES": 1302.757141830273}

0

will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84

1459.0763204969544

Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before June 2022?

1654034340000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

0

6.409439015660708

True

play

NO

public

1648800250694

Zhao Nan

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1654067138478

53.97072730985159

ZhaoNan

1654011575412

0

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

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1654011575242

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6i8Hs97xABf1lRHSwY4l

{"NO": 6.329601328715725, "YES": 201.17173907864614}

0

will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6

259

Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before July 2022?

1656626340000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

0

5.583490430201202

True

play

NO

public

1648800311323

Zhao Nan

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.116865456542682, "platformFee": 0.5111263983439747, "liquidityFee": 3.066758390063848}

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1656681861103

53.066758390063846

ZhaoNan

1655932728121

0

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

10

0

1

0.66

1655932727947

0.05013881603546881

0.5205639516330475

cykct4DpE60CjXfNJL4h

{"NO": 18.12112776606311, "YES": 6.9286932338914236}

0

will-my-friend-g-drink-tea-on-april

68

Will my friend G----- drink tea on April 1st?

1648875540000

RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83

cpmm-1

0

9.308884983104226

True

play

NO

public

1648801882917

sophia

This market resolves to YES if my friend G----- drinks tea before midnight in her timezone (ET) on April 1st. Apr 1, 3:32am: It will resolve to N/A if I am unable to determine whether she drank tea. Apr 1, 11:07am: Quote: Me: "may i quote u on the market page about how u hate the idea" G: T_T fine. but I get to co...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5251705307077597, "platformFee": 0.08752842178462662, "liquidityFee": 0.5251705307077597}

0

1648888409544

10.525170530707758

a11ce

1648801882917

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgO1qPCZdYZsdQaawUT0ks9gfJujhBCR3JPgdqq-Q=s96-c

3

0

1

0.5

0.7395651300637454

0.4936450473595461

PutYg5wiQEg40EiSF3DZ

{"NO": 36.1881616809528, "YES": 88.62877938955477}

0.05

will-germany-buy-at-least-50-of-any

126.28557435129203

Will Germany buy at least 50% of any months Russian oil in Rubles before July 2022

1656716340000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

4.176422990334725

True

play

MKT

public

1648804602378

Nathan Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.942435680996309, "platformFee": 0.4431656101730964, "liquidityFee": 2.658993661038578}

0

1690964525988

52.224727701637775

NathanpmYoung

1691943608507

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

9

0

1

10

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529485082}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072298}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukr...

["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1656702943110

1691943605331

False

0.05

d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn

markets-against-humanity-you-cant-w

145.69062949012556

Markets against Humanity: "You can't wait forever. It's time to talk to your doctor about ..."

1648871940000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.926620703985179

True

play

a90107531a86

public

1648815753752

Em ✨

Market is the judge. Apr 1, 2:55pm: I'm watching out for obvious whale interference and will push against it.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2123748203949782, "platformFee": 0.8030937050987446, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648874343863

560

hamnox

1648815753752

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c

13

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6d092890ac71", "prob": 0.00909568225013873, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08465408748154102, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.222408885199796, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d0nFhSbGyIbMU5z47NKn", "createdTime": 1648815754022, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1648857971669

{"a90107531a86": 100}

True

0.24657401723782524

F4YjNi4KJcfPiRcUO2Eb

{"NO": 571.7921935274139, "YES": 0.32272757611883196}

1

will-lesswrong-actually-pay-out-the

849.0161025783715

Will LessWrong actually pay out the Good Heart Tokens

1648922340000

HRqyoYfqd2cJEaBltoVsWInlcRs2

cpmm-1

0

6.548205749960827

True

play

YES

public

1648830650075

Leonardo Taglialegne

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1\n\nThis is (quite obviously) an April Fools' post, but it's not 100% clear whether the payouts will be real.\n\nPointing YES: minimum payout, caps on payout\nPointing NO: April Fools', obvious shitpost, no obvious value in actually paying out\n\nApr 1, 10:28pm: I messed up the closing time :( Anyway, I'll resolve as soon as I get confirmation of a payment happening, although it looks like it will be a YES"

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.8546295757789375, "platformFee": 1.1424382626298233, "liquidityFee": 6.8546295757789375}

0

1662149805791

106.18149961006716

miniBill

1662149800691

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjXiay-2U1xC10HDePvL6F8ac2ROVBwZm8KskQtwg=s96-c

12

0

1

12

0.1

1662149798652

0.9982783582218618

0.5492638560347433

KESszvVWbcNFkRTbdujM

{"NO": 2080.46394699555, "YES": 111.17745215271594}

1

will-the-astralcodexten-discord-adm

3240.279526111676

Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?

1672696740000

sSyPVMPXuQSSCenwDUp5OmmZVDW2

cpmm-1

0

1.5088574138064474

True

play

YES

public

1648830686499

blank

This market will resolve to YES if the Codex discord server admin on Jan 1st, 2023 is the same as the top voted result in this poll on September 1st, 2022: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th It will resolve to NO if the admin is someone different. If the server is shut down or othe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.35233936924096, "platformFee": 2.5362474882224673, "liquidityFee": 15.217484929334807}

0

1674620500394

435.2174849293347

abk

1674580682390

0

https://firebasestorage.…4f1-b228ebaa1956

13

0

5

14

[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465154}]

["acx"]

0.5

1672625415789

1674580680210

0.96

0.3996696558462306

BMTHleKuh4AYhOfVfjPS

{"NO": 28.65154500472135, "YES": 33.96608366551233}

0.39

in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-man

34

In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities (1% = 2 videos)?

1676571505102

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

6.043635709281716

True

play

MKT

public

1648832584671

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the cha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3381614028316642, "platformFee": 0.05636023380527737, "liquidityFee": 0.3381614028316642}

0

1676735151063

30.338161402831666

Tetraspace

1676735145225

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

7

0

1

6

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104257829}, {"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928040373}]

["internet", "project-for-awesome"]

0.4

1675273931853

1676735142495

0.39

0.14783306250557068

rJc8oTr5F4jYO5og8u2B

{"NO": 78.77432028934604, "YES": 161.78826604203869}

0.07

in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-muc

376.396592482472

In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities? (1% = $5,000)

1702146380131

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

6.108400220379728

True

play

MKT

public

1648832727182

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the cha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5716582825215695, "platformFee": 0.09527638042026158, "liquidityFee": 0.5716582825215695}

0

1702146380131

90.46782497956227

Tetraspace

1702146437373

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

9

0

5

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104257829}, {"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297578}]

["internet", "project-for-awesome"]

0.4

1702128948560

1702146436634

0.07

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

0.08052097802234083

ju4Q5ZkFVKRZsv86A2op

{"NO": 98.93900072458301, "YES": 138.03516523019078}

0

will-amazon-stock-price-drop-below

110

Will Amazon stock price drop below 3000 by closing time today?

1648836000000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

8.654228284273191

True

play

NO

public

1648833134775

Gurkenglas

Amazon just grew a union in New York. Have I noticed before the market?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8185104322092538, "platformFee": 0.13641840536820898, "liquidityFee": 0.8185104322092538}

0

1653147460131

100.81851043220927

Gurkenglas

1648833134775

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

2

0

1

0.08

0.05906172552342614

0.5159055783653665

fcNsJ7l5UWfShjDRFzFo

{"NO": 11.927437752863632, "YES": 11.67470710912335}

0.5212523153396333

in-project-for-awesome-2023-what-wi

34.41880194788125

In Project for Awesome 2023, what will the product of the amount of money granted to EA charites and the number of videos made for EA charites be? (1% = 200,000 video-dollars)

1649013089680

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

9.004680790330756

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648833262847

Tetra

Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome webs...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5967210772532289, "platformFee": 0.09945351287553815, "liquidityFee": 0.5967210772532289}

0

1649013089680

10.380519266337735

Tetraspace

1648833262847

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

3

0

[{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297580}]

["project-for-awesome"]

0.5

1649002153587

0.5212523153396335

0.5062806566166284

RSeg46yjQXcLSKpMKj21

{"NO": 451.7145983689367, "YES": 261.70237169690546}

1

how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w

564.4081180053879

How much mana will be replenished within 8 hours?

1648837800000

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

1.050460034116384

True

play

YES

public

1648834458677

Gurkenglas

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards\nResolves 0-40% for 0-4000 mana, 40-80% for 4000-20000 mana, 80-100% for 20000-40000 mana, piecewise linear, YES above that.\n\nApr 1, 7:34pm: 8 hours starting as I created this market.\n\n(I guess that means it's gonna be like 560 less than displayed at the relevant time.)\n\nApr 2, 9:21am: Note for posterity: I resolved this when the mana replenished hit 40000 and I feel safe about any disputes since I am the only party that stood to make mana from NO."

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.022270794078615, "platformFee": 2.3370451323464363, "liquidityFee": 14.022270794078615}

0

1648856636035

307.4265183833396

Gurkenglas

1648834458677

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

2

0

1

0.5

1648834492293

0.6389861915784978

0.5211328682174206

SKRAlOJaWmxraVrmETLg

{"NO": 2.3351871287253045, "YES": 122.09717526455799}

0

will-russia-make-any-major-gains-in

357.66657571097556

Will Russia make any major gains in Ukraine in April?

1651158548004

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

8.503140938484337

True

play

NO

public

1648835997670

Enopoletus Harding

Needless to say, there is a lot that can go right for the Russian army, so I don't want to speculate. There is also a lot that can go wrong. This market resolves to "yes" if Russia and its allies (DNR, LNR, Belarus') make any major gains in Ukraine in April (the call will be made by me what counts as a "major gain"). I...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.623570289491811, "platformFee": 0.6039283815819685, "liquidityFee": 3.623570289491811}

0

1651158548004

13.254644682826248

EnopoletusHarding

1648835997670

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

16

0

0.6

0.02038933274075832

0.18891166366371426

g9om4c3VFWHn0eu3FM2a

{"NO": 679.066535716765, "YES": 7749.673140531454}

0

will-manifold-markets-introduce-rea

16517.643700166966

Will Manifold Markets introduce real money (inc. crypto) trading before 1 Jan 2024?

1704067140000

bXr2T22YruXqPdkT8EW0dNpdYgE3

cpmm-1

0

0.7430115559951194

True

basic

NO

public

1648839052291

Greg Colbourn

This market resolves to "YES" if real money trading (including that using cryptocurrency) is available on Manifold Markets before the end of 2023

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.625132854794167, "platformFee": 1.6707040630595538, "liquidityFee": 10.02422437835732}

0

1704117882368

1143.7368521245605

GregColbourn

1708207456127

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghxx6d4UjKFtXG7CjyCg3_wyT_YiBaBgJNW3DbnyxI=s96-c

2

74

0

1

27

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1697876603293}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1697876613579}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-ye...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1173938379814622

0.5

1703883354075

1708207455698

0.02

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.5389771402648308

l9giku0LrsYDMy1qCLZq

{"NO": 22.537242121363846, "YES": 12.272608616838758}

1

will-lesswrong-pay-users-1-for-each

282.9681032010709

Will LessWrong pay users $1 for each Good Heart Token they earn?

1648868340000

sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2

cpmm-1

0

7.943001905105598

True

play

YES

public

1648840484545

William Kiely

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1 Close date updated to 2022-04-01 9:59 pm

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 2.7321289417163026, "platformFee": 0.4553548236193836, "liquidityFee": 2.7321289417163026}

0

1653194957189

12.354094382291441

WilliamKiely

1648840484545

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c

10

0

1

0.5

1648866418493

0.6822269312482302

0.5006168544269728

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{"NO": 124.90243902439023, "YES": 81.99075930439966}

0.6042950739039785

will-lesswrong-try-some-way-of-fina

25

Will LessWrong try some way of financially rewarding users in proportion to their karma in 2022?

1648844158969

BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1

cpmm-1

0

2.7714866852078295

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648843188951

hath

This market resolves to YES if before Jan 1 2023, LW has tried some way of making payments to users based on how much karma they have, NOT COUNTING today, April 1st. This resolves to YES if the GoodHeart system lasts past today. Apr 1, 3:59pm: Update: it resolves YES if they try anything else involving financial rewar...

BINARY

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0

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0

1648844158969

100.58536585365853

hath

1648843188951

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1648844182571

0.5

nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm

whats-the-best-way-to-bootstrap-mar

754

What's the best way to bootstrap market a goofy, new generative art NFT project?

1651471140000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.679286205065794

True

play

MKT

public

1648845895552

Ian Philips

It's women-led nft project that I'm helping launch by doing the smart contract and IPFS work. They're super goofy and remind me of the jay pegs automart team (https://jaypegsautomart.com/). The art theme is 80s/90s generative wrestlers. Looking for wacky ideas.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.560000000000002, "platformFee": 6.140000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1651525675451

740.0000000000002

ian

1651460122059

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6b09b19dcdd4", "prob": 0.43974136172069034, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.75009080285985, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.90351968865483, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nzh7j13uPZRqApSvGTXm", "createdTime": 1648845895732, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533674}]

["science-default"]

1651460120741

1649017354135

{"52619703d311": 84.94226153962053, "ee14fe19293e": 15.05773846037947}

True

0.4863024789285936

bR5JWGiyCMCKT0NlZAYB

{"NO": 7.247048741061775, "YES": 490.4866238856955}

0

will-the-palestinian-flag-remain-at

579

Will the Palestinian flag remain at the conclusion of /r/place?

1649134740000

HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2

cpmm-1

0

5.902076707123377

True

play

NO

public

1648851985650

Mvem

There was originally an Israeli flag on /r/place at (50,660). It has since been mostly replaced by the Palestinian flag. There is still an active fight for that space on the canvas. This market resolves positively if the Palestinian flag remains when /r/place concludes. Link to the canvas: https://new.reddit.com/r/plac...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.4276020916423904, "platformFee": 0.5712670152737317, "liquidityFee": 3.4276020916423904}

0

1649172944927

53.42760209164239

Mvem

1648851985650

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7c-9f71f6bf4d66

7

0

1

0.5

0.013794327218932801

0.22489690225474215

gr3hKlcwGXQyaOvrtMNe

{"NO": 120.34297690499662, "YES": 663.43495860458}

0

will-the-uk-change-the-gender-recog

1324.7045952425526

Will the UK change the Gender Recognition Act (GRA) by the end of 2023?

1704067140000

nXlFX5kZiVcr9Vr4fL0wA1cJ0JM2

cpmm-1

0

2.8705413926230383

True

play

NO

public

1648853923744

.

Currently the GRA is obsolete and outdated and despite the insistences of the people the (conservative) government continues to refuse to change it. The last update about it was one week ago, here the link: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/658/reform-of-the-gender-recognition-act/news/165046/Government-misses-cle...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4653743221554397, "platformFee": 0.07756238702590662, "liquidityFee": 0.4653743221554397}

0

1704144937932

180.46537432215544

DG

1704144938288

0

https://firebasestorage.…5a4-2e7749002f0d

0

10

0

1

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499549}, {"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfwjHy", "createdTime": 1663598453995}, {"name"...

["politics-default", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.3

1703738594474

1704144932755

0.05

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16

what-will-happen-after-april-fools

791.7792887752826

What will happen after April fools prank ends?

1648868340000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.687019393367327

True

play

777bad378637

public

1648854355539

Jenny

Close date updated to 2022-04-01 10:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.951147576827164, "platformFee": 1.237786894206791, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648933423042

479.99999999999994

Jenny

1648854355539

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c1f641f8ded3", "prob": 0.005565501703789213, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04044634310724207, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.226884664931908, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H5F8nu3BD3JsIP9Eyb16", "createdTime": 1648854355689, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

{"777bad378637": 100}

True

i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq

what-will-todays-xkcds-code-do

478.50866212734286

What will today's XKCD's code do?

1649031088684

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.71746104609249

True

play

f13cd307ae6e

public

1648854396427

DAL59

Today's xkcd was a 9 hour long text to speech audio of code, what will the code do?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 17.739653514906287, "platformFee": 4.434913378726572, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649031088684

380

DAL59

1648854396427

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "94dd08c9486a", "prob": 0.0004654968600294281, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.001406385157352925, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.0198495633017095, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i33n8lvty8ZVcxaC0fPq", "createdTime": 1648854396657, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

1648924457362

{"f13cd307ae6e": 100}

True

0.5074662357071121

LkiM3qJDwWoxrILb6SUs

{"NO": 29.980000000000004, "YES": 3.602474781439139}

0.8955544000777729

will-todays-xkcd-code-be-ran-by-11

20

Will today's xkcd code be ran by 11 AM April 2nd, GMT?

1648871940000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

9.710252878547944

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648854535979

DAL59

Today's xkcd was a 9 hour text to speech audio of code, will it be successfully run to see what it is by that time?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.11999999999999983, "platformFee": 0.019999999999999976, "liquidityFee": 0.11999999999999983}

0

1648916786233

10.12

DAL59

1648854535979

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

1

0

1

0.5

0.8955544000777729

0.48236550363184527

rWHfMUNQAdxmB4LAn4gv

{"NO": 0.7692259519799844, "YES": 235.78977133681698}

1

will-the-worth-the-candle-art-in-rp

418.2125880991847

Will the Worth the Candle art in r/place be at least partially recognizable by the end?

1649131140000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

9.604292495829522

True

play

YES

public

1648854673105

DAL59

236, 113

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0809411819225858, "platformFee": 0.18015686365376435, "liquidityFee": 1.0809411819225858}

0

1649137418453

10.990961890217621

DAL59

1648854673105

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

8

0

1

0.5

1648886647100

0.003030844948193559

0.5092393534496761

1d359rP3K2ZbfEGYrK9E

{"NO": 39.98235294117647, "YES": 2.726185649529751}

0.9383411243476927

test-d039ae3391fa

30

Test

1648855434656

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

9.855662925936343

True

play

CANCEL

public

1648855386486

Jenny

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.10588235294117648, "platformFee": 0.01764705882352942, "liquidityFee": 0.10588235294117648}

0

1648855434656

10.105882352941176

Jenny

1648855386486

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

1

0

0.5

0.09977750840933046

kEucn6Xzk2FMJSBUb3st

{"NO": 21.317815581895545, "YES": 16.570983894912644}

1

will-mana-replenished-be-below-m-40

127

Will "Mana Replenished" be below M$ 40000?

1648862700000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

9.408186304956285

True

play

YES

public

1648857625347

Jenny

Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w was resolved incorrectly and the "mana replenished" somehow drops below M$ 40000. Close date updated to 2022-04-01 9:00 pm Apr 1, 8:36pm: Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/how-much-mana-will-be-replenished-w was ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.392376832228165, "platformFee": 0.06539613870469417, "liquidityFee": 0.392376832228165}

0

1648863535622

20.392376832228166

Jenny

1648857625347

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

2

0

0.1

1648857774349

0.12479243625991518

0.48096231778448556

fZYWPQttrSG2vgSaFB5X

{"NO": 4.250187592216886, "YES": 209.71926369507682}

0

will-i-be-able-to-hide-markets-base

214

Will I be able to hide markets based on creator by May 1st?

1651377540000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

7.404166649843802

True

play

NO

public

1648864839602

Martin Randall

This market resolves to "Yes" if I can hide all markets created by a manifold user that I select on or by May 1st, while still seeing other markets as usual. This market resolve "No" if I cannot. I will attempt to select a user and hide their markets using a regular browser and will not use undocumented APIs, browser...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.45341369096778, "platformFee": 0.24223561516129674, "liquidityFee": 1.45341369096778}

0

1651494601174

26.453413690967782

MartinRandall

1648864839602

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

10

0

1

0.5

1651349030603

0.018433244294810174

0.47023533295256115

BlBe46Rw7H2JcoDZ9zHq

{"NO": 23.873688308205047, "YES": 654.7473699751083}

0

will-sp-500-increase-by-more-than-1

1083.9508962731313

Will S&P 500 increase by more than 15% from today's price at any point by the end of April (1 April 2022 - 4,545.86)?

1651273140000

UIwWuC33rgSp3pUiJ50HJWQxXAX2

cpmm-1

0

3.7697031331773987

True

play

NO

public

1648879391691

Natalia Andrecka

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.604719459187137, "platformFee": 0.7674532431978563, "liquidityFee": 4.604719459187137}

0

1651307964888

103.78706313906328

NataliaAndrecka

1648879391691

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjS4ON3u1apTJICOqs7m-Jsr0nfpFAPMw9h8EH9=s96-c

8

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566346}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

0.03135051488266844

BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY

what-will-be-the-most-common-color

645

What will be the most common color when r/place is closed?

1649130012962

RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.68972631791806

True

play

3231e564ff86

public

1648886150527

sophia

When r/place closes and I (or someone else) am able to analyze the color frequency, I'll pick the name of the most common color.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.6000000000000005, "platformFee": 1.4000000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649130012962

320

a11ce

1648886150527

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgO1qPCZdYZsdQaawUT0ks9gfJujhBCR3JPgdqq-Q=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6c981102a551", "prob": 0.024037017006189536, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.528119518794053, "userId": "RQA0pDgz7yRCzDPYbxrVRDMYOQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.442972761835527, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BRYURuxGYgPW2JS1FnOY", "createdTime": 1648886150814, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1648896097624

{"3231e564ff86": 100}

True

0.5405897872202002

Hm4GwRMF0xvcRDhv48ws

{"NO": 403.17814315339916, "YES": 10.775065151721613}

1

will-i-be-convinced-mm-is-usable-by

532.7634299258805

Will I be convinced MM is usable by 15th April 2022

1649928120000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

5.482160625643236

True

play

YES

public

1648893401596

Undox

If on 15th April 2022, AEST, when I first think about MM that day, will I think "yeah it is pretty usable". Currently there seem to be enough bugs to tip it over to the unusable. Here is a chat I sent to someone: "My balance is up and down like a yoyo (no trading), this market I am sure i made a bet but it is not ther...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.5696463404738923, "platformFee": 0.5949410567456489, "liquidityFee": 3.5696463404738923}

0

1649967982579

53.5030162320372

Undox

1648893401596

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

12

0

1

0.5

1649201442263

0.9777923617994055

0.09339360604883758

sglj4398yB1QoWzyH6DC

{"NO": 46.67836305051233, "YES": 137.53180973796515}

0

will-there-be-a-decent-enough-manif

98.45995481213534

Will there be a decent enough manifold logo on r/place when it closes

1649113200000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

9.249503036685143

True

play

NO

public

1648896362552

Undox

Happy to lose mana to see the coordination happen! Colour should roughly match, can be set against any background color at all, and should look roughly the same as judged by my eyes without reading glasses on. Close date updated to 2022-04-05 9:00 am Apr 5, 7:55am: Because https://www.reddit.com/r/place/comments/tw7w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7954424006237097, "platformFee": 0.13257373343728493, "liquidityFee": 0.7954424006237097}

0

1649119135989

50.73805550052934

Undox

1648896362552

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

6

0

1

0.09

1648898324056

0.033782044548934964

0.8554154698027703

nkvbqNuaCsA6vYNqQb5b

{"NO": 1.3764157355173825, "YES": 58.29562367382538}

0

will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr

512.8727188054506

Will I donate $10 to GiveWell in April

1650092340000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

0

8.351029762436612

True

play

NO

public

1648914763591

Oleg S

I will donate $10 to GiveWell foundation in April if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $10. If you want to indirectly donate your $M to GiveWell, buy NO. Apr 16, 8:48am: Resolving as NO because payout if YES ($M128) is below what could be bought by $10 ($M1000) See also an ex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2453068444071673, "platformFee": 0.20755114073452796, "liquidityFee": 1.2453068444071673}

0

1650169541245

101.19395307870398

OlegStroganov

1648914763591

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzLXDtZ439kawbACMnqBCJk4pQ-44FjzU_ezx9I=s96-c

9

0

1

0.99

1649345962537

0.12256931675692115

2kd9C5mDJUmge7O52Njk

what-will-the-price-of-wti-crude-be

113

What will the price of WTI Crude be at

1648936759656

IKKpUZOTDBVQACVpkWmC0pTiDyr1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.98013067025711

True

play

147a526c2642

public

1648923493578

Leo

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/wbs00?countryCode=UK

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1648936759656

240

Leo8f15

1648923493578

0

https://firebasestorage.…219-c0e3af2d02b8

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "41bdbfad0f94", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 98.90445009198807, "userId": "IKKpUZOTDBVQACVpkWmC0pTiDyr1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.386642230471498, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2kd9C5mDJUmge7O52Njk", "createdTime": 1648923493919, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563782}]

["economics-default"]

{"147a526c2642": 100}

True

VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1

who-will-win-the-democratic-primary

1340.97901581319

Who will win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district in 2022?

1652759940000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.663368164212756

True

play

529fc05ef912

public

1648937537137

Matthew Barnett

This question resolves to whoever wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district in 2022. You can find more information about the race here, on Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.800000000000008, "platformFee": 6.200000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653426701744

879.9999999999998

MatthewBarnett

1652740990498

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "929d14869d41", "prob": 0.009783171361785465, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08211555309346062, "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.311435991369544, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VrUhCd4nubEDBIdPROM1", "createdTime": 1648937537401, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490208}]

["politics-default"]

1652740990259

{"529fc05ef912": 100}

True

0.5996256970613641

LlqG7ldSKqIK17NFHZQX

{"NO": 8.517903243757537, "YES": 11.444387756788233}

0.18

what-will-i-score-in-the-esperanto

3

What will I score in the Esperanto progress quiz at the end of April? (1% = 0.05)

1651359600000

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Tetra

Past scores: April 21st 2021 - 0.4 (8%) December 4th 2021 - 1.1 (22%) April 2nd 2022 - 2.2 (44%) Apr 2, 11:37pm: On Duolingo*

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what-fraction-of-2022-stackoverflow

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What fraction of 2022 StackOverflow Developer Survey Respondents will report using Python?

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Bolton Bailey

StackOverflow conducts an annual survey where they ask their users questions about their use of various technologies. Typically, they ask a question about programming language use. For example, in the 2021 survey, they asked "Which programming, scripting, and markup languages have you done extensive development work in...

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will-this-pull-request-get-merged-b

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Will this Pull Request get merged before April 9th?

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Bolton Bailey

https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib/pull/12973. Chicago time.

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will-there-be-a-new-wave-of-covid-p

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Will there be a new wave of Covid precautions/worry/danger sometime before September 2022?

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Conflux

This market isn’t precisely defined, but I’m curious about the answer and promise to resolve it in good faith. At multiple points in the past, I’ve felt that the pandemic was improving, only to be disproven by new threats like the Delta and Omicron variants. These threats have been accompanied by an increase in preca...

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will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of

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Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2025?

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Lars Doucet

The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “calories in, calories out” aren’t sufficient: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/ But is it true? In five years let’s ...

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LarsDoucet

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will-lithium-specifically-be-identi

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Will Lithium specifically be identified as a contaminant responsible for the modern obesity crisis?

1744261140000

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1648949752037

Lars Doucet

Related to this market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of Same question, but additionally LITHIUM must specifically be identified as a contaminant responsible for causing the observed obesity problems. Close date updated to 2025-04-09 11:59 pm

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LarsDoucet

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will-argentina-win-the-2022-fifa-wo

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Will Argentina win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

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Watt

This market resolves to YES, if Argentina wins the 2022 football World Cup

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YairNeumann

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in-project-for-awesome-2023-what-wi-2c82992e65aa

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In Project for Awesome 2023, what will the square of the number of videos made for EA charities be (1% = 200 videos^2)?

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Tetra

Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome webs...

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what-will-the-cap-on-payout-for-les

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What will the cap on payout for Lesswrong's April Fools Good Heart tokens be? (1% = $50)

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1648998768478

Tetra

For April Fools, Lesswrong is paying users $1 for each comment karma and $3 for each post karma, the joke being that the "Good Heart" tokens will lead to people optimising for a proxy of value (Lesswrong upvotes) rather than actual value (good content). This actually kinda worked, so they extended it for a week. https:...

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will-i-be-able-to-turn-my-existing

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Will I be able to turn my existing "numeric" markets into markets that show up as numeric on the UI by the end of 2023?

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1648999888505

Tetra

Currently, I have a few fake numeric markets, by being probabalistic markets on a scale where 1% = some quantity. These are somewhat ugly. At some point, Manifold might make the UI on these questions look nicer, such as displaying the scale as a scale determined by the question author. It would be nice if this happened...

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will-i-complete-japanese-duolingo-c

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Will I complete Japanese Duolingo Checkpoint II before May 1, 00:00 PST?

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Ana Dalton

This market resolves to YES if at any time before May 1, 2022 00:00 PST I post an image showing that I have completed checkpoint II in Japanese Duolingo. It resolves to NO otherwise. Close date updated to 2022-05-01 12:00 am Apr 3, 11:02am: Relevant data: I am at 5/5 non-guilded levels for 18 out of 26 skills before ...

BINARY

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AnaDalton

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if-i-order-salted-caramel-huel-this

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If I order Salted Caramel Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel?

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cpmm-1

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CANCEL

public

1649012571489

Tetra

I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana.

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if-i-order-strawberries-cream-huel

31

If I order Strawberries & Cream Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel?

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CANCEL

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1649012619230

Tetra

I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana.

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