CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.4683669984320063

EaamYKURuaC35MmUR8ua

{"NO": 2.0900595620248374, "YES": 69.22196350703207}

0

will-i-create-a-new-mm-account-and

140

Will I create a new MM account and transfer my Mana to it in April?

1649992018542

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

9.969075723002646

True

play

NO

public

1649020098538

Undox

The reason I consider doing this is because there are UI issues for me and I suspect they are related to my trading history placing a lot of small bets and suchlike. However if the UI is better I wont. Apr 15, 1:06pm: i promise i wont

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4648273342660984, "platformFee": 0.07747122237768307, "liquidityFee": 0.4648273342660984}

0

1649992018542

10.464827334266097

Undox

1649020098538

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

3

0

0.5

1649225158848

0.025911207347095358

0.016648960888216335

xw5c4EU64gG39ZE1KfxW

{"NO": 992.1257545864286, "YES": 1348.5393853614594}

0.012302841950676978

will-russian-orthodox-church-offici

5178.764128046049

Will Russian Orthodox church officially switch from worshiping Jesus to some other deity before 2025?

1736449200000

Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1649020113972

Jeremy Moonders

BINARY

{"day": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": 2.0816681711721685e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6165675223391232, "platformFee": 0.1990803045315646, "liquidityFee": 1.1944818271893876}

0

1000

JeremyMoonders

1689084203252

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c

17

0

15

0.05

1689084203128

1663658020069

0.17717183471672596

KbclztmNRCMluDhbqLxR

{"NO": 48.10953397533399, "YES": 2372.902884387645}

0

will-canada-build-and-operate-an-of

2454.0680092774364

Will Canada Build and Operate an Offshore Wind Farm by the end of 2023?

1704125633218

qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1

cpmm-1

0

5.834946579441309

True

play

NO

public

1649029590249

Jasper Woodard

This market resolves Yes if power is being generated at an offshore wind farm in Canada on or before January 1st, 2024. Several projects have been proposed on both coasts, but little progress has been made. Construction times have come down quickly, and the US has approved it's first offshore wind farm near Martha's Vi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.46426592278173967, "platformFee": 0.053671226182944023, "liquidityFee": 0.32202735709766417}

0

1704125696126

180.32202735709768

JasperWoodard

1704125696523

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c

11

0

12

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526998}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1668527422338}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years...

["science-default", "canada", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.02

1704097452629

1663803236079

0

qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1

Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6

this-market-resolves-on-some-day-th

72

This market resolves on some day this week. The day on which it resolves will be a surprise.

1649037897391

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.139644984965413

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649037809682

Isaac King

Apr 3, 10:03pm: Gah, screwed up answers. Resubmitting.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649037897391

300

IsaacKing

1649037809682

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b8f5b2757b08", "prob": 0.48225308641975306, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.851521736269014, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.96219373605842, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037809997, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

True

Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ

this-market-resolves-on-one-day-thi

1213.9640854411264

This market resolves on one day this week. The day on which it resolves will be a surprise.

1649395682146

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.693342068555365

True

basic

ffa1f21d6803

public

1649037976389

Isaac King

Apr 5, 8:55am: "This week" being April 3-9. Apr 7, 10:24pm: Surprise! People should pay more attention to time zones. ;)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 23.42273728820523, "platformFee": 5.8556843220513075, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649395682146

1399.9999999999998

IsaacKing

1649037976389

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

16

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9cddc1e98388", "prob": 0.006630594387802671, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.045745079353314455, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.853346718127911, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649037976703, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1649395452975

{"ffa1f21d6803": 100}

True

0.75

ehpyGt3D7FaQjbp1U7m3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.75

will-the-daily-volume-traded-for-ax

0

Will the daily volume traded for Axie Infinity's Ronin network fall below 40 Ethereum on any day before the end of April?

1649310625589

8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2

cpmm-1

0

3.6967849629863747

True

play

MKT

public

1649050656402

BowTrix

Will the daily volume traded for Axie Infinity's Ronin network fall below 40 Ethereum before the end of April? (this would be a 50% decrease from the current daily volume). Read: Will Axie Infinity die before the end of April? Axie Infinity is a dying pyramid scheme that has recently been hacked for over 600 million do...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649310625589

100

BowTrix

1649050656402

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c

0

0.75

0.6327636825688511

Zst8vYE66k3XMKTFPWxP

{"NO": 82.80931174948056, "YES": 120.46055361939837}

1

will-the-swiss-people-vote-yes-on-t

112

Will the Swiss people vote YES on the Amendment to the Federal Act on Film Production and Film Culture?

1652601600000

AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342

cpmm-1

0

2.8972959746828604

True

play

YES

public

1649056345362

Sjlver

On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Amendment to the Federal Act on Film Production and Film Culture. Domestic television broadcasters are obliged to invest 4 per cent of their turnover in Swiss filmmaking. In so doing, they make an important contribution to local film production. However, films a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5191160225427565, "platformFee": 0.4198526704237927, "liquidityFee": 2.5191160225427565}

0

1652630239015

102.51911602254275

Sjlver

1652411467076

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c

3

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493865}]

["politics-default"]

0.64

1651653385528

1652411466439

0.542226586239607

0.6512844630551134

UNDAThL89TBY3UYmPWY7

{"NO": 183.2000719895631, "YES": 75.05026087922008}

1

will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a

86

Will the majority of Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act?

1652601600000

AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342

cpmm-1

0

3.097463834115128

True

play

YES

public

1649056780163

Sjlver

On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Transplantation Act. Over the past five years, an average of around 450 people in Switzerland have received one or more organs from a deceased person each year. However, the need for organs is much greater. Today, a transplant is only possible if the deceased pe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2229148471743367, "platformFee": 0.2038191411957228, "liquidityFee": 1.2229148471743367}

0

1652630213036

101.22291484717432

Sjlver

1652478257715

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c

4

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489007}]

["politics-default"]

0.65

1652478256423

1652411185629

0.8201126388394999

0.6835492835616261

pJJvSdchYrgH6igxpFGN

{"NO": 442.59129582992955, "YES": 53.63346789433011}

1

will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a-2472f785ce44

380.2054264760035

Will the majority of Swiss voters accept the Adoption of the Regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard and repealing Regulations (Development of the Schengen Acquis)?

1652601600000

AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342

cpmm-1

0

3.6236424208930917

True

play

YES

public

1649057029692

Sjlver

On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Adoption of the Regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard and repealing Regulations. Switzerland is part of the Schengen Area. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) provides operational support to the Schengen states in controlling the ext...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.2743999861562942, "platformFee": 0.37906666435938235, "liquidityFee": 2.2743999861562942}

0

1652629985804

102.27439998615631

Sjlver

1652593201486

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c

4

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505419}]

["politics-default"]

0.68

1652593199997

1652411326898

0.9468792890903263

0.13259640350001337

7aJk6TWGAqNvVE4DWok4

{"NO": 136.12524259333117, "YES": 49.382927573923084}

0

will-i-unfollow-lxrjl-by-end-of-yea

254.38127657404402

Will I unfollow @lxrjl by end of year

1672531356033

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

0

5.429977413114014

True

play

NO

public

1649098697239

Nuño Sempere

This market resolves positively if I am no longer following Alex Lawsen on Twitter by end of year. Apr 4, 3:16pm: See [this tweet](https://twitter.com/lxrjl/status/1511053170511912964) for context

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.161895981002328, "platformFee": 0.09820175080660713, "liquidityFee": 0.5892105048396428}

0

1672531356033

120.58921050483963

NuñoSempere

1672533119658

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

11

0

10

0.1

1669003606671

1672533118229

0.3

0.08

WrxY7nbF0JTVYeTQqopz

{"NO": 500, "YES": 500}

0.08

will-i-be-convinced-that-emf-fields

0

Will I be convinced that EMF fields I live with are a health concern

1649118924179

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

2.4771950651352523

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649099490890

Undox

Feel free to post evidence each way and convince me. Initial prob shows where I am at. Will I be convinced either low frequency EMF like from house wiring and power lines, OR high frequency like wifi and cell phones is worth worrying about. Resolves yes if I think there is a health risk similar to say one of: a poor ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649118924179

500

Undox

1649099490890

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

0

0.08

0.5862171626365126

hdWDcQuy1aDtknfgZe64

{"NO": 2576.397702266138, "YES": 1866.6240534354736}

0.6616396723575233

will-fully-autonomous-level-5-selfd

11776.449622697932

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

1893484740000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

6.6999538072884075

False

basic

public

1649104522404

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market's resolution piggybacks on Jeff Atwood and John Carmack's bet documented on the Coding Horror blog: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", ...

BINARY

{"day": 0.0073456733457266665, "week": 0.0073456733457266665, "month": 0.03811910922676143}

0

{"creatorFee": 34.41687904917973, "platformFee": 2.65290323469937, "liquidityFee": 14.215476191729682}

50

2253.2364244808855

dreev

1720192386634

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

3

98

1

50

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452518}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588367}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2...

["ai", "technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"]

0.5

1720192383466

1716957017013

0.586301466054117

WvhP0m0AIeVaZVwSJvHU

{"NO": 280.2591563464016, "YES": 70.07527166538951}

1

if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading

1540.7079133956372

If Manifold eliminated all trading fees, would I deem it a success a month later?

1672552740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.6637244604562063

True

play

YES

public

1649113805213

SG

Resolves YES if, conditional upon eliminating all trading fees on Manifold, I would deem the fee-elimination a success three weeks later. (If I revert the change after a day or two because I don't like it, this will resolve NO. If I don't remove fees a month before the close date, this will resolve N/A.) A non-exhaust...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.246379492593285, "platformFee": 0.8650214814891887, "liquidityFee": 5.1901288889351305}

0

1672985638474

125.19012888893513

SG

1667395419090

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

20

0

2

19

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1667395418903

1661649136368

0.85

0.9747550024229199

KV1m4CFkg0J8LXlJEmtV

{"NO": 3.1005419749095506, "YES": 41.17788507663992}

0.7440704907846896

will-my-change-to-a-female-twitter

159

Will my change to a female Twitter avatar work at boosting my Twitter engagement rate for the next two weeks?

1650318527039

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

9.95541901853274

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649115394227

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to yes if my Twitter engagement rate between April 4 and April 11 is on average higher than that between February 23 and April 1. It resolves to no if it is lower. If I get banned or restricted during this time for any reason, this market resolves as N/A. For context, my engagement rate rose from...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7977743923726073, "platformFee": 0.13296239872876792, "liquidityFee": 0.7977743923726073}

0

1650318527039

50.797774392372595

EnopoletusHarding

1649115394227

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

19

0

0.99

1649141616638

0.7440704907846897

7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW

what-is-the-real-percentage-of-amer

272.3670369982675

What is the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers?

1649791263867

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.896076451773026

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649115572132

Enopoletus Harding

I will choose the answer according to who has the best argument re: the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers. Only options I create will be chosen. Apr 4, 7:39pm: If you guys do not post arguments, this will be resolved as N/A. Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm Close date updated...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3890804412288531, "platformFee": 0.09727011030721328, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649791263867

580.0000000000001

EnopoletusHarding

1649115572132

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b248d9736592", "prob": 0.10591834729215134, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8886327147778665, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.82486229522233, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115572397, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1649180471797

True

0.5271709030350114

yY8ZjRoZcBZURR7n8qQS

{"NO": 12841.931031939434, "YES": 105.58612375687937}

1

will-trump-be-allowed-back-on-twitt

33712.74096591176

Will Trump be allowed back on Twitter before the end of the year?

1668929902242

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.4239718432196935

True

basic

YES

public

1649118963290

SG

h/t @NathanYoung https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1511049753005637636

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 52.960811741886204, "platformFee": 5.865700453151917, "liquidityFee": 35.1942027189115}

0

1668929902242

1082.9097342283194

SG

1668921373012

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

159

0

131

[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "GJPg4HglipYKPeNTy23KmSK4Ttd2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1666996383354}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}, {"name": "Donald Trump"...

["internet", "twitter", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1668921372912

1668911002584

0.9926795404197655

0.6

Nd44LzXo02dc4rywpyTP

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6

will-i-have-some-doctor-appointment

0

Will I have some doctor appointment scheduled about starting HRT by Jan 1 2023

1649119923073

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.888113252333105

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649119842024

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649119923073

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1649119842024

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

0

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492227}]

["olivia"]

0.6

0.6015167162398741

hocuEckCQfKq9My79IHK

{"NO": 306.67371587817945, "YES": 97.08158542580074}

1

does-olivia-has-an-appointment-abou

163.01321590002416

Does Olivia has an appointment about starting HRT before the start of 2023?

1658904154100

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.2460947931339894

True

play

YES

public

1649120492018

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

This market resolves to YES if Olivia has an appointment with a doctor (not therapist) to begin the process of going on HRT. This does not necessarily need to be getting the medication, but could be for things like blood draws before prescription. Olivia is hoping to be a professor in computer science, and will be def...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7152208211136086, "platformFee": 0.29403907809212565, "liquidityFee": 1.764234468552754}

0

1658904154100

151.7642344685528

LivInTheLookingGlass

1658904250027

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

8

0

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549935}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073359537}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k1...

["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"]

0.6

1658904142208

1658904243739

0.7810372689951082

Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi

if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading-4f53d011f024

360.01293173566455

If Manifold eliminated all trading fees, how much does trading increase month over month?

1663991940000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.787077180934152

True

play

ed220e8e9e4b

public

1649128366724

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MM is considering eliminating trading fees. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eli...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.03895473645906236, "platformFee": 0.00973868411476559, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664627057408

839.9999999999998

dglid

1664627050007

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "53fed56a6fb9", "prob": 0.1413445132831273, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.2054297577625475, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.547615904071158, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649128366963, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

11

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664640845007}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

1662568713229

1664627043532

{"ed220e8e9e4b": 100}

True

0.7934696382447688

HGulh0HH4KmQfUOmPyqk

{"NO": 10.263825614408908, "YES": 77.88677714896204}

0

will-neutrino-stablecoin-usdn-crash

28

Will Neutrino stablecoin USDN crash this month?

1649296800000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

6.991122862117541

True

play

NO

public

1649129613434

Undox

Resolves YES if https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/neutrino-usd/ is below 10c at an point this month. More info on background: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/tw7mng/neutrino_usd_usdn_is_losing_its_11_peg_to_us/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/tway3y/the_vires_finance_defi_ponzi_offering_apy...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6793371062277581, "platformFee": 0.1132228510379597, "liquidityFee": 0.6793371062277581}

0

1651450644341

50.679337106227756

Undox

1649129613434

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

3

0

1

0.8

1649181694812

0.3361134073702926

0.5044461844280578

keAzHLinG2YInK3Jx03Y

{"NO": 218.35108178953962, "YES": 50.28952949277863}

0.66

what-will-be-the-result-of-mit-grad

137

What will be the result of MIT grad student unionization election?

1649249940000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

2.956632799779354

True

play

MKT

public

1649130648349

Jenny

For more information about the election see https://mitgsu.org. Resolves PROB with value Y/(Y+N), where Y and N are the numbers of valid YES and NO votes respectively. Apr 5, 12:15am: Rounded to the nearest percentage point. Apr 6, 1:01pm: https://thetech.com/2022/04/08/grad-students-unionize

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.063022654327193, "platformFee": 0.3438371090545322, "liquidityFee": 2.063022654327193}

0

1649438492536

102.06302265432718

Jenny

1649130648349

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

5

0

1

[{"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741669}]

["mit"]

0.5

0.66

0.9788807465929507

tZwjqJqYq3r4UXGY7Cux

{"NO": 0.9952746492804633, "YES": 42.82607047802752}

0

i-will-work-on-project-x-today

27

I will work on project X today

1649195940000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.08712817083736

True

play

NO

public

1649152765795

Account deletion requested

I procrastinated for month and if I do not change something I will procrastinate also today. This is an attempt to motivate me to change it.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08473462774660057, "platformFee": 0.014122437957766763, "liquidityFee": 0.08473462774660057}

0

1649206089776

50.084734627746606

Accountdeletionrequested

1649152765795

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

4

0

1

0.99

1649186219435

0.5185767264083475

0.8000663452975489

YKECv5OnLqk5t3JiCKNa

{"NO": 749.1264076304034, "YES": 60.75897852519222}

1

will-bill-self-coach-a-game-for-kan

723.8136406467848

Will Bill Self coach a game for Kansas in the 2022-2023 season?

1679696272459

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

5.02318353958346

True

play

YES

public

1649157974189

David Glidden

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/after-winning-his-second-title-will-kansas-coach-bill-self-be-competing-for-a-third-championship-next-season/ Kansas coach Bill Self led the Kansas men’s college basketball team to a National Championship in 2022. He and the team are likely to face multiple penalties f...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1992081916265755, "platformFee": 0.03320136527109592, "liquidityFee": 0.1992081916265755}

0

1679696272459

100.19920819162658

dglid

1677198410885

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

3

0

4

0.8

1677198410722

0.98

0.30971500951272357

At5fSfpWpAovh0dTt6R2

{"NO": 59.84814331098899, "YES": 750.2122860577917}

0

will-the-kansas-jayhawks-be-banned

758.9923020204599

Will the Kansas Jayhawks be banned from participating in the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament before December?

1669870740000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.353265769452946

True

play

NO

public

1649160828968

David Glidden

Kansas coach Bill Self led the Kansas men’s college basketball team to a National Championship in 2022. He and the team are likely to face multiple penalties from the NCAA in the 2022-2023 season. Will it include a ban from participating in the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament? Resources: * https://www.cbssports....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5090375865736959, "platformFee": 0.08483959776228267, "liquidityFee": 0.5090375865736959}

0

1669936227242

140.5090375865737

dglid

1669853486101

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

6

0

5

0.4

1669853485953

0.03455630378547006

0.4293746630933064

dD2byJSgbF4B72n2m5Kl

{"NO": 39.58048951472534, "YES": 340.82444290008596}

1

will-drew-timme-be-back-at-gonzaga

223.95519435625908

Will Drew Timme be back at Gonzaga for the 2022-2023 men's basketball season?

1667275140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.386083078423745

True

play

YES

public

1649161234605

David Glidden

On the Eye on College Basketball podcast on April 5th, 2022 (https://youtu.be/UG7e6ZL2pqU?t=2379), Gary Parrish states that he assumes Drew Timme will be back at Gonzaga for the 2022-2023 men's basketball season. Matt Norlander responds that he thinks there's it's "60-40 he's back". This market resolves YES if Drew Ti...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0533425994856, "platformFee": 0.17555709991426668, "liquidityFee": 1.0533425994856}

0

1667362797476

121.0533425994856

dglid

1667274336778

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

3

0

1

2

0.6

1667274336662

1650504711270

0.08036233379472676

0.5

wcZHri2xzt1ZoBzROP7v

{"NO": 450, "YES": 450}

0.5

will-caltech-accept-at-least-10-stu

0

Will Caltech accept at least 10 students from its first-year undergraduate applicant waitlist for the Class of 2026?

1649175633169

w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2

cpmm-1

0

0.8026827818486038

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649171909790

tenadome

This market resolves to YES when the waitlist closes and statistics are released. Resolution data will be sourced from an official statement, most likely via email announcement or Caltech's Common Data Set. This information should be available by the end of August 2022. Note: Class of 2026 = freshmen entering Caltech i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649175633169

450

nmehndir

1649171909790

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-31da9418426c

0

0.5

0.11661969792352085

W1lPgNYKS0CIH0SiJQUB

{"NO": 905.5421218959331, "YES": 1397.8816866389252}

0.07878164168753156

will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of-f27836a908da

3529.7228504726577

Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032?

1956549540000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

0

10.023319764048164

False

basic

public

1649176118100

Lars Doucet

Long-term clone of this market with a closing date 10 years out instead of 3: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of ----- The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “cal...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.556018409794799, "platformFee": 1.9082237714422248, "liquidityFee": 11.44934262865335}

0

1000

LarsDoucet

1712673733919

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

1

46

0

35

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423399}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529294}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8H...

["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default", "medicine"]

0.5

1712673730483

1684269278131

jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4

how-many-firstyear-undergraduate-ap

5547.155604110777

How many first-year undergraduate applicants will be accepted from Caltech's waitlist for the Class of 2026 (i.e. freshmen entering in Fall 2022)?

1654145940000

w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.66592667271413

True

play

5dc5b6fa3bda

public

1649177265022

tenadome

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*****09/21/2022: I have not forgotten about this market. Caltech has not posted its 2022-2023 CDS yet (I checked https://finance.caltech.edu/Resources/cds). This market will resolve as soon as data becomes available, but I do not know for sure when...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8189894035458565e-14, "platformFee": 4.547473508864641e-15, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1687286064563

380

nmehndir

1687286051266

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-31da9418426c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "01a4cfc457dd", "prob": 0.0027192162072070996, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.01703876569072515, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.249018948133226, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177265227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

5

1687286046808

{"5dc5b6fa3bda": 100}

True

xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA

when-will-my-newsletter-reach-2000

693

When will my newsletter reach 2,000 subscribers

1672549140000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6847380429865835

True

play

e4b8b70c9236

public

1649183364600

Nuño Sempere

Apr 5, 2:29pm: Because the initial set of answers is mutually exclusive, I will by default resolve options which other people add as negative.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1689411794503

580.0000000000001

NuñoSempere

1672995114461

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b0fac8bdaf5b", "prob": 0.5205632911260617, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.2882103579163, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.07822858679948, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183364799, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...

40

6

1653493190371

1672995153485

{"e4b8b70c9236": 100}

True

0.16118711195628596

tMlSLJwXuqHthD0kG7wh

{"NO": 24.82035230230019, "YES": 659.0531162048584}

0

will-i-be-able-to-turn-my-existing-18f22bbe8829

677.1482275262699

Will I be able to turn my existing "numeric" markets into markets that show up as numeric on the UI by the end of 2022?

1672531200000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

10.179700903669493

True

play

NO

public

1649188774143

Tetra

Currently, I have a few fake numeric markets, by being probabalistic markets on a scale where 1% = some quantity. These are somewhat ugly. At some point, #ManifoldMarkets might make the UI on these questions look nicer, such as displaying the scale as a scale determined by the question author. It would be nice if this...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.406934477294174, "platformFee": 0.234489079549029, "liquidityFee": 1.406934477294174}

0

1672531513037

71.40693447729416

Tetraspace

1671140201739

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

10

0

1

9

0.5

1671140201625

1668212517518

0.01

0.09528626113529558

2REztKJoPPVo4EOqo97b

{"NO": 9563.732950209915, "YES": 31825.187881819696}

0.030679136098612857

100-amplified-odds-details-within-w

46209.57021423639

(100× amplified odds; details within) Will a nuclear weapon hit London in 2022?

1672531200000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

0.1126321958205474

True

plus

CANCEL

public

1649191308468

Tetra

This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in or above Greater London. If a nuclear weapon does not hit London, then I will check the first 42 digits of the MNIST beacon, mod 100, for the first beacon after this question closes, or another public fair source of randomness if that turns out to be a bad w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672538944600

10740.844301089968

Tetraspace

1672581527974

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

0

74

0

1

65

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529412547}, {"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701348543}]

["world-default", "amplified-odds"]

0.1

1672418766032

1672581525048

0.03

0.07616254886947968

9V68mze3XtYrzzxgyDAo

{"NO": 81.9880413780938, "YES": 251.8961369096496}

0

will-i-complete-my-first-video-game

264.8303261706308

Will I complete my first video game by the end of the year?

1673503200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.27329555087594

True

play

NO

public

1649193028944

Isaac King

I taught myself to program in order to build websites that I wanted to exist, and eventually I'd like to get into making video games as well. (For fun, not as a career.) I have many ideas for games I'd like to create, including some that are simple enough that I expect I could complete them within a few months if I ded...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.628969848311871, "platformFee": 0.08338771988266347, "liquidityFee": 0.5003263192959808}

0

1673847971774

90.50032631929598

IsaacKing

1673775384441

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

0

1

8

0.1

1673403272806

1673775381381

0.03

0.27061842856140056

XKvgfW0ShKFSq21BCwv1

{"NO": 138.0421995296932, "YES": 572.2601030854433}

0.08214741797909555

conditional-on-manifold-integrating

1216.0985571166977

Conditional on Manifold integrating with crypto in some way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023?

1705039200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.2342996642111026

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649194889409

Isaac King

Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1706373241627

213.02433559806474

IsaacKing

1706373241869

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

25

0

4

20

0.5

1704698578469

1676672035685

0.08

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

0.16899052456396302

d1lPJyfksiYos4m73tJV

{"NO": 119.57032705711755, "YES": 7070.043353954041}

0

conditional-on-manifold-not-integra

10118.03583910755

Conditional on Manifold *not* integrating with crypto in any way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023?

1705039200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

3.217250314167267

True

play

NO

public

1649194914012

Isaac King

Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.595957646175308, "platformFee": 0.32140081247861163, "liquidityFee": 1.9284048748716698}

0

1706373290420

271.92840487487166

IsaacKing

1706373290690

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

23

0

4

12

0.5

1704925968204

1659209149775

0

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

eJHorJV5zQIXYiJnu7lk

what-number-am-i-thinking-of-61aef66174f7

160.90205483583514

What number am I thinking of?

1649833140000

BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.903474255984532

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649196237699

nfd

What number am I thinking of? The number is in ℂ. Resolves to N/A if nobody guesses it. Apr 5, 3:03pm: Oh, and I can write it down in closed form. Apr 5, 3:05pm: Resolves at deadline.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654643098021

820

nfd

1654643133023

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb1-efea3842a48f

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cc71654341a2", "prob": 0.11245964089478572, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.241759455131868, "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.692142496673217, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eJHorJV5zQIXYiJnu7lk", "createdTime": 1649196237918, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1654643130933

True

0.9889069217865397

JAImgrgfT6X2FgX0cXec

{"NO": 1.3264877627665268, "YES": 52.22226095642313}

1

i-will-work-on-project-x-today-7fe1b0ef3cf7

4

I will work on project X today

1649282340000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.495059754803751

True

play

YES

public

1649206144793

Account deletion requested

I procrastinated for month and if I do not change something I will procrastinate also today. This is an attempt to motivate me to change it. https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today has not worked

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1366957480917392, "platformFee": 0.022782624681956534, "liquidityFee": 0.1366957480917392}

0

1649287438671

50.136695748091746

Accountdeletionrequested

1649206144793

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

4

0

1

0.99

1649215945741

0.6936639022335929

YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j

who-will-win-this-round-of-dune-the

2364.5480279957505

Who will win this round of Dune the board game I’m playing irl?

1649218475974

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.641150747642099

True

play

c52c3d6e7a2a

public

1649209238085

SG

Close date updated to 2022-04-05 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.247119867810166, "platformFee": 4.811779966952542, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649218475974

480

SG

1649209238085

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "edef369dca29", "prob": 0.0027833923609429977, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.017646075830893584, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.322126957431003, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209238283, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1649209778557

{"c52c3d6e7a2a": 100}

True

0.13751865266446248

HaT8aB3JGqrD5fJ3Yhdu

{"NO": 108.362238374795, "YES": 1253.8678022101128}

0

will-ftx-run-an-ea-fellowship-progr

2202.093226449831

Will FTX run an EA Fellowship program in the Bahamas in Q1 2023?

1680321540000

pVKxIFLoLpXHswiuEEzcAjK9JEv1

cpmm-1

0

4.8432198348397035

True

play

NO

public

1649212719934

Alex Demarsh

This market resolves "Yes" if FTX Foundation runs an [EA Fellowship program](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sdjcH7KAxgB328RAb/ftx-ea-fellowships) in the Bahamas for any period between January 1 - March 31 2023. Verification by public announcement on EA Forum, or other official statement. Apr 5, 10:38pm: ple...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.89240528660179, "platformFee": 0.8816361308697691, "liquidityFee": 5.289816785218615}

0

1680530374074

205.28981678521862

AlexDemarsh

1680157427485

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6agovUKf1PNh7bIcMTfz1roQW3rzLGiP_P6L0_Q=s96-c

14

0

1

12

0.5

1680157427374

1675444996938

0.01

0.9001314516611557

qnYmyNXXtADMFs8g9q7e

{"NO": 740.9788465309516, "YES": 376.9718925259628}

1

will-ukraine-attend-the-77th-un-gen

390

Will Ukraine attend the 77th UN General Assembly?

1654573721521

zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-1

0

2.4966062381843983

True

play

YES

public

1649213531695

Alex Power

Mr. Zelenskyy is clearly upset with the United Nations' lack of action in response to the Russian invasion. One option available to his government is to withdraw from the UN. This market will resolve based on whether a delegate representing Ukraine makes any recorded vote at the 77th UN General Assembly, scheduled to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6447701666004324, "platformFee": 0.2741283611000721, "liquidityFee": 1.6447701666004324}

0

1654573721521

401.64477016660044

AlexPower

1652758233072

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c

5

0

0.9

1652758186352

1652758231657

0.9465707543475365

0.12530564504820782

QI8qxlvO3Bqh3cPXasgQ

{"NO": 282.1090028480131, "YES": 25.589153915214467}

1

will-there-be-any-bugs-in-beeminder

181

Will there be any bugs in Beeminder's freeCodeCamp integration?

1649357224806

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

4.240124932218794

True

play

YES

public

1649224028182

Daniel Reeves

Strictly cosmetic bugs don't count (though please tell us about them anyway!) Apr 7, 11:31am: Also if it's something sufficiently rare and inconsequential (like only happens in one browser set to one locale and doesn't prevent using the integration effectively even for that corner case) then we'd probably resolve to N...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.638969824353342, "platformFee": 0.7731616373922237, "liquidityFee": 4.638969824353342}

0

1649357224806

204.6389698243533

dreev

1649224028182

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

9

0

[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383129978}]

["beeminder"]

0.12

1649357210473

0.6060883080322674

VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5

how-will-market-creation-costs-work

869.4782477183014

How will market creation costs work in a month?

1651831140000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.686782174198932

True

play

e2f33b03fa2f

public

1649235610278

Manifold

Today, market creators choose a subsidy at market creation time, to inject liquidity into the system. However, "liquidity" is a super weird and hard-to-grok concept; and deciding how much to put in is basically black magic. Stephen has a proposal for fixing the market creation cost to M$ 100: https://manifoldmarkets.n...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 22.365208052903945, "platformFee": 5.591302013225986, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654344169609

900

Manifold

1651687524065

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e00e21a2e85e", "prob": 0.02210992799630626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.29921163915314003, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.233697161053133, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649235610481, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

1651687522561

1650592455350

{"e2f33b03fa2f": 100}

True

0.672270007849918

UTdc3zdKPztWXwyI5NpL

{"NO": 4.993753114585118, "YES": 433.45825417900454}

0

will-manifold-support-limit-orders

1120.3504018598437

Will Manifold support limit orders before July?

1656669540000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

5.163894329020337

True

play

NO

public

1649236002464

Manifold

See Stephen's proposal in https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Proposal-Limit-Orders-87c65f6dfad444cc83ce017baa9e6714

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.844528092353816, "platformFee": 2.390282700098766, "liquidityFee": 14.341696200592603}

0

1660324631447

121.69903067450377

Manifold

1660324656971

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

19

0

1

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1656664749955

1660324653138

0.023086777980669836

0.4060612735387347

A9jaafc57pfWDFiPKx9R

{"NO": 62.15783456679286, "YES": 1053.353230616668}

0

will-someone-recieve-funding-to-inv

1613.0686659588614

Will someone recieve funding to investigate the viability of selectively breeding octopuses for intelligence by the end of 2022?

1672531140000

CkfMukn0XXObAMkzFJohXBfpv283

cpmm-1

0

2.514150525071866

True

play

NO

public

1649254691352

Peter Barnett

There is some interest in breeding octopuses for intelligence, possibly as an alternative to computer-based AGI https://twitter.com/richardmcngo/status/1492212649941037056?lang=en-GB https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DaFG3GKsBrsAnAERR/save-humanity-breed-sapient-octopuses This market will resolve "YES" if at any time b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.108814694692385, "platformFee": 0.4853615027836428, "liquidityFee": 2.9121690167018572}

0

1672532994912

222.91216901670182

PeterBarnett

1671566227269

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgD6oN3zKaT6jzZ5CSbbWKfuc85Z9q_RcT7qLK9zg=s96-c

0

13

0

1

13

0.5

1671566227071

0.04

2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK

what-metric-is-most-advantageous-fo

11971.87805459061

What metric is most advantageous for Manifold Markets to track in order to monitor success of the platform?

1650520740000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.619766664996078

True

play

7896f8a403af

public

1649260711182

Ian Philips

Whichever has the highest probability will win. Apr 6, 10:05am: It'd be great to hear more about the mission & goals of the platform. My assumption is that the goal is to create a platform for those who excel in truth-finding to survive solely on their related skills and abilities. Like youtube but for seers. Apr 6, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 163.41341386520745, "platformFee": 40.85335346630186, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1650547998161

1299.9999999999998

ian

1649260711182

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

23

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e02aba48e087", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649260711531, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...

1

1650480978182

{"7896f8a403af": 100}

True

0.060394598246238614

GsaypGCLwkOC0I44Jg3L

{"NO": 507.4095143755628, "YES": 510.90890013955385}

0

will-i-get-a-positive-cue-result-fo-51351908836b

386

Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month?

1651388340000

vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2

cpmm-1

0

3.168738252242936

True

play

NO

public

1649263188553

Mike Blume

I expect to test at least weekly. If at any time I get a positive result I will resolve YES. I will do a final test on May 6th and then resolve the market. Apr 6, 9:39am: if I somehow lose the ability to test regularly I will resolve N/A.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.82109024445543, "platformFee": 0.636848374075905, "liquidityFee": 3.82109024445543}

0

1651890189990

503.8210902444554

MichaelBlume

1649263188553

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c

7

0

1

0.06

1651345319627

0.06000575761223457

0.39640000868524194

hb1XXHDkGoPUWGwwZovq

{"NO": 64.25291763103515, "YES": 185.00000000000009}

0

will-niplav-join-manifold-by-the-en

85

Will Niplav join Manifold by the end of 2022?

1672531200000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

3.0836872199953316

True

play

NO

public

1649267644816

Tetra

Niplav says on schelling.pt https://schelling.pt/web/statuses/108085296944093699 > raising the incentives for me to join manifold, I see > > But I will…resist…… But for how long can they hold out? This will resolve positively if I become aware of Niplav joining Manifold before the end of 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672539000100

100

Tetraspace

1672233130247

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

2

0

1

2

0.5

1672233129073

1672538998073

0.19

0.1978582772319345

sQmAmAVYbQ69jIb6tzPN

{"NO": 35.152574115711225, "YES": 246.52657234043278}

0

will-yudkowsys-post-on-april-1st-mi

201

Will Yudkowsy's post on April 1st, "MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy", be published on intelligence.org by the end of June?

1656630000000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

7.2308954349263175

True

play

NO

public

1649268956816

Tetra

The post in question: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy This does not include if it is linked to on a monthly newsletter, though would if it was linked to as the main topic of a post.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8311781500880764, "platformFee": 0.1385296916813461, "liquidityFee": 0.8311781500880764}

0

1656716831573

50.83117815008808

Tetraspace

1659219933952

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

5

0

1

0.2

1653307467880

1659219931718

0.03397692053410722

0.35373350052154673

YGZxcypK9tVhfIZS1vUq

{"NO": 34.76486532626562, "YES": 615.2556048955043}

0

will-elon-musk-bring-fleets-back-to

500.6332066026987

Will Elon Musk bring fleets back to Twitter before December 31st, 2022?

1672541940000

bPYDXxLWSOahKHJkn92dVzHxZ2M2

cpmm-1

0

4.063387402778417

True

play

NO

public

1649269966990

Maia M

This market resolves to "YES" in the event that Twitter brings back fleets or creates a fleet-like function before the end of 2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.6181583729483155, "platformFee": 0.34663339903209456, "liquidityFee": 2.0798003941925676}

0

1672547193315

122.07980039419257

MaiaM

1710451931601

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8-xeadMyBlflZ9HDs_-wBHMhhPkHfcunULWWf=s96-c

8

0

1

9

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1672538165472

1672547220015

False

0.03

0.2039822896541731

Hg90ELfsWaJzKneEKFTs

{"NO": 308.9614899421766, "YES": 328.0719877568823}

0

will-the-current-israeli-coalition

384

Will the current Israeli coalition survive until January 2023?

1655753220000

93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2

cpmm-1

0

1.7088871688657294

True

play

NO

public

1649273717054

John Smith

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/06/middleeast/israel-coalition-majority-lost-intl/index.html The ruling coalition no longer has a majority with Idit Silman having quit. The Knesset (Israeli parliament) has a 60-60 balance. This market will resolve NO if re-elections are <declared> before January 2023, i.e. the re-electio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.679452076767104, "platformFee": 1.0742819235657255, "liquidityFee": 6.445691541394353}

0

1656267859478

306.44569154139435

JohnSmith

1655751449092

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c

7

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480098}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562175}]

["israeli-politics", "politics-default"]

0.2

1655751447886

1649331487216

0.19441014393007347

0.5113150942156034

8uhQ4L0OaysKdsai2QHc

{"NO": 797.277297122803, "YES": 147.8541627262282}

0.8494436597128295

is-crime-in-our-neighborhood-increa

866.219239301784

Is crime in our neighborhood increasing?

1649919540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

1.2882468724790193

True

play

MKT

public

1649275167688

Daniel Reeves

Our neighborhood being 57th Ave and Klickitat in Portland, Oregon. Listening to folks on the Nextdoor app sure makes it seem like Portland is going to hell in a handbasket, but what will the data say? The Portland Police Bureau publishes data here: https://public.tableau.com/views/New_Monthly_Neighborhood/MonthlyOffe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.407179414135358, "platformFee": 2.567863235689225, "liquidityFee": 15.407179414135358}

0

1650682604261

319.97973206730796

dreev

1649275167688

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

12

0

1

0.5

1649353953064

0.8494436597128295

i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz

what-books-will-i-think-are-the-bes

165

What books will I think are the best to recommend to people who want to improve themselves and/or their communities?

1768291200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1649282008137

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I run some seminars/workshops on topics like self-improvement, providing useful feedback, effective communication, and other topics that relate to building an epistemically-healthy community. At the end, I like to recommend some books to people for...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

320

IsaacKing

1716691265852

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cc8fb000335e", "prob": 0.09182736455463728, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.0879164419120775, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.429493610510455, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz", "createdTime": 1649282008315, "probChanges": {"day": -0.908172635...

27

5

[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559785}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659013941642}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "g...

["books", "recommendations", "personal-goals"]

1682941048030

1673829822444

False

True

8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y

what-will-the-charity-with-the-most

235.46711692045392

What will the charity with the most cost-effective intervention+region on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do?

1672531200000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.93013574535545

True

play

8e6b507811e6

public

1649282294395

Tetra

My previous question ( https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch ) resolved N/A because Givewell has stopped aggregating overall effectivenesses for charities, instead "expect[ing] to focus [their] allocation decisions for these organizations on specific country-level funding gaps" ( https...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2031383888990979, "platformFee": 0.05078459722477448, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672539042356

520

Tetraspace

1672538446817

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b0f79256b797", "prob": 0.13812844094651114, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.371731079509496, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.51766087120141, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282294654, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

4

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132867851}]

["medicine"]

1671090396019

1672538444043

{"8e6b507811e6": 100}

True

0.9854398158650468

HYDQqk10INTJCYLVV0rM

{"NO": 2.495032720990115, "YES": 51.44844999025011}

0

i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for

63.14278002175298

I will work on project X today, for at least 2 hours

1649367461181

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.252234060460937

True

play

NO

public

1649287483503

Account deletion requested

Continuation of https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-7fe1b0ef3cf7 Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14425223704333917, "platformFee": 0.024042039507223195, "liquidityFee": 0.14425223704333917}

0

1649367461181

50.10885028534856

Accountdeletionrequested

1649287483503

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

5

0

0.99

1649287551958

0.7664760614101048

r2JrD4NoC06YqyFy9TMP

which-driver-will-qualify-on-pole-p

70

Which driver will qualify on pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Australian Grand Prix?

1649288442166

95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.151157559953747

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649288289435

taeyeon

Resolves to the driver who qualifies in pole position in 2022 F1 Australian Grand Prix. Close date updated to 2022-04-08 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649288442166

620

taeyeon

1649288289435

0

https://firebasestorage.…b0e-ce69d39f3aab

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "734fd44a6bd1", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.51766065161459, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.336954225550002, "textFts": "", "contractId": "r2JrD4NoC06YqyFy9TMP", "createdTime": 1649288289625, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112328}]

["australia"]

True

0.00983474769994269

dqKspAnXHTXLxq40OggV

{"NO": 119.89464138431143, "YES": 130.99999999999983}

0

will-former-duke-coach-mike-krzyzew

11

Will former Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski un-retire and return as Duke’s head coach before the start of the 2022-2023 season?

1667275140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

10.566693096232896

True

play

NO

public

1649292779592

David Glidden

See https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/dribble-handoff-will-mike-krzyzewski-change-his-mind-and-return-as-dukes-head-coach/ by David Cobb, Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, and Kyle Boone. Will resolve YES if Coach K is the head coach for Duke’s men’s basketball team at the time of Duke’s first game of the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667362518993

120

dglid

1667274336143

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

1

0

1

2

0.01

1667274336049

0.009008530120892309

0.5

YcgNjv3DnJs2h1OiDprP

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-eleutherai-release-an-image-ge

0

Will EleutherAI release an image generator with approximately the same or greater capabilities as DALLE-2 by the end of 2023?

1649295146973

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649294685765

DAL59

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649295146973

100

DAL59

1649294685765

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

0

0.5

0.29997054472575274

APXO8uXLsEPKmWrhQGvS

{"NO": 102.41539369326371, "YES": 97.2074841565515}

0.33

how-many-new-covid19-cases-will-the

16

How many new COVID-19 cases will the CDC report for April 7th, 2022? (1% = 1000 cases)

1649401140000

PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2

cpmm-1

0

3.2817141768266573

True

play

MKT

public

1649303212371

horse

Resolves according to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. Every thousand new cases will count as 1% for resolution, if it's over 100k it'll resolve to YES and if it's under 1k it'll resolve to NO. Market closes ahead of expected data release. Sources of data for your prediction are appreciated. Meta-comments on...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.41226672650447277, "platformFee": 0.06871112108407879, "liquidityFee": 0.41226672650447277}

0

1649458142274

100.41226672650447

horse

1649303212371

0

https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f

3

0

1

0.3

1649390909591

0.33

Q7tR7UsIbY9eqVmWRLpq

who-or-what-is-the-monster-in-the-d

183.9818879341671

Who or what is the Monster In The Darkness (Order of the Stick)?

1822449540000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1649307366192

DAL59

Apr 7, 3:39pm: I am not an untrustworthy market creator, I resolved the candle question considering the beginning of the whiteout as the end of place.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0792755173666842, "platformFee": 0.01981887934167105, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

440.00000000000006

DAL59

1649307366192

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2cb3b4277177", "prob": 0.31555249485520825, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.361531612183025, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.48889542909433, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q7tR7UsIbY9eqVmWRLpq", "createdTime": 1649307366450, "probChanges": {"day": -0.6844475051...

34

5

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736796641}, {"name": "Order of the Stick", "slug": "order-of-the-stick", "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "groupId": "hzBzHohQVJ20DmeoASru", "createdTime": 168...

["ancient-markets", "order-of-the-stick"]

True

0.8798405502646811

cFyb7ts6NpOhdS0Ghr1u

{"NO": 34.385389544437416, "YES": 52.975442156348386}

1

will-i-work-on-project-tomorrow-for

3

Will I work on project Λ tomorrow for 2 hours

1649361540000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

8.401264427769599

True

play

YES

public

1649327800684

Undox

Project Lambda is a side project, programming, keen to work on it but lots of potentially distracting things could happen.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14734706190965105, "platformFee": 0.024557843651608506, "liquidityFee": 0.14734706190965105}

0

1649386854250

50.14734706190965

Undox

1649327800684

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

0

1

0.88

0.8261702351285782

0.5869366124719005

Z5JYauy3Yd78tJXJ128r

{"NO": 347.11281106625864, "YES": 54.71706931763635}

1

am-i-a-reputable-market-creator

2762.0486516521355

Am I a reputable market creator?

1649995140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

2.9477011283840553

True

play

YES

public

1649328649440

David Glidden

This market is my attempt at procuring from the Manifold community a reputation score/rating for myself as a market creator. How it works: * I commit to resolving this market YES. * I’m opening this market at 50% to ensure at least some trading and to suggest that I find the answer to this question valuable enough to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.57579531764024, "platformFee": 1.7626325529400395, "liquidityFee": 10.57579531764024}

0

1650019774771

110.55776354267178

dglid

1649328649440

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

16

0

1

0.5

1649464715574

0.9001407893754302

0.5890578301994291

Ps40HKHChKYj60mZjfWb

{"NO": 409.60669996172584, "YES": 26.027952817753388}

1

am-i-awesome

1227.882870797689

Am I awesome?

1649995140000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

4.209164995690822

True

play

YES

public

1649339171285

Martin Randall

This market is similar to https://manifold.markets/dglid/am-i-a-reputable-market-creator but is more awesome. This market is my attempt at procuring from the Manifold community a reputation score/rating for myself as being awesome. How it works: * I commit to resolving this market YES. * ??? * PROFIT!

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.61997058134666, "platformFee": 1.1033284302244435, "liquidityFee": 6.61997058134666}

0

1650022633432

54.198459840664874

MartinRandall

1649339171285

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

12

0

1

0.5

1649777643628

0.9575519185359382

0.49608762971159326

IizWmXRa1stSy7hXbm6w

{"NO": 53.265721469532515, "YES": 211.62094082088203}

0

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-90aa5e2280aa

155

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $1,080 on April 7, 2022?

1649358000000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.8984029060230476

True

play

NO

public

1649340035423

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This qu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8042767547641554, "platformFee": 0.4673794591273593, "liquidityFee": 2.8042767547641554}

0

1649361675900

102.80427675476415

Predictor

1649340035423

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

4

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424773}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

0.19858631063835078

i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW

what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for

135

What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Long Form for the Hugos this year?

1660460400000

B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.929203758568994

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649348648666

Ozy Brennan

My current rankings: 1. Space Sweepers 2. Encanto 3. The Green Knight 4. Dune 5. No Award 6. WandaVision 7. Shang-Chi Close date updated to 2022-08-14 12:00 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705149244629

360

ozymandias272

1705149244816

0

https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7e07a41a8609", "prob": 0.5486968449931413, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.78606703016557, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.83654013231118, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649348...

1

2

1705149240461

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.5

n2hjPoDmsZqtn2cYstVq

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-064492c6addb

0

What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form for the Hugos this year?

1649348898237

B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649348790451

Ozy Brennan

Nominees are: The Wheel of Time: The Flame of Tar Valon For All Mankind: The Grey Arcane: The Monster You Created Loki: The Nexus Event Star Trek: Lower Decks: wej Duj The Expanse: Nemesis Games I have not watched any of these TV shows and will be ranking the episodes as standalone artistic endeavors Because the Expan...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649348898237

100

ozymandias272

1649348790451

0

https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d

0

0.5

ssVNElttaRRAxP52IvLG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

what-will-i-rank-in-first-place-for

0

What will I rank in first place for the Lodestar Award this year?

1649348860441

B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649348840984

Ozy Brennan

Nominees are: Chaos on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer (Tor Teen) Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao (Penguin Teen / Rock the Boat) The Last Graduate, by Naomi Novik (Del Rey Books) Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko (Amulet Books / Hot Key Books) A Snake Falls to Earth, by Darcie Little Badger (Levine Querido) Victories Greater Tha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649348860441

100

ozymandias272

1649348840984

0

https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d

0

0.5

Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP

what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-fb3ead6105f3

130

What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form for the Hugos this year?

1660460400000

B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.939478067851447

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649348950197

Ozy Brennan

Nominees are: The Wheel of Time: The Flame of Tar Valon For All Mankind: The Grey Arcane: The Monster You Created Loki: The Nexus Event Star Trek: Lower Decks: wej Duj The Expanse: Nemesis Games I have not watched any of these TV shows and will be ranking the episodes as standalone artistic endeavors Because the Expan...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705149254860

359.99999999999994

ozymandias272

1705149255106

0

https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2b16ae563787", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.74728847662122, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.94562904886864, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16493489...

1

3

1705149250590

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg

what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-752a340549c7

130

What will I put in first place for the Lodestar Award for Best YA this year?

1660546740000

B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.939478067851447

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649349033227

Ozy Brennan

Nominees are: Chaos on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer (Tor Teen) Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao (Penguin Teen / Rock the Boat) The Last Graduate, by Naomi Novik (Del Rey Books) Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko (Amulet Books / Hot Key Books) A Snake Falls to Earth, by Darcie Little Badger (Levine Querido) Victories Greater Than Dea...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705149264341

379.99999999999994

ozymandias272

1705149264582

0

https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8b823bcf6e02", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.74728847662122, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.94562904886864, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16493490...

1

3

[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658705040105}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659013941640}]

["books", "recommendations"]

1658705075709

1705149259608

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.5673296717926245

KfWLr1ZkQXAplDHWJJBq

{"NO": 32.201941508223086, "YES": 399.43407439865837}

0

will-manifold-allow-me-to-select-a

1068.0238019352385

Will Manifold allow me to select a target probability when buying shares in a market by 5/15?

1652684340000

vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2

cpmm-1

0

3.005778899828627

True

play

NO

public

1649350664798

Mike Blume

This is not any sort of automated training system, just an addition to the existing widget for buying shares in a market. Right now, I can enter a number of shares, and I can see immediately what probability this purchase would move the market to. I'd like to be able to enter a "target" probability and have the number ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.442666069661577, "platformFee": 2.5737776782769304, "liquidityFee": 15.442666069661577}

0

1652730934312

113.43200469998463

MichaelBlume

1652491412997

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c

15

0

1

0.6

1652491411727

1652040024296

0.09560358214690562

0.04427448454960688

DvWHZWpKG9CM1kF7zTcp

{"NO": 925.1735966580261, "YES": 1799.3620088371365}

0.02326493249699855

p-np

6403.536327569973

P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

1807765140000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

1.9515274528247587e-15

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1649351848782

Lars Doucet

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this statement be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (For P != NP) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90", "...

BINARY

{"day": 1.734723475976807e-17, "week": 1.734723475976807e-17, "month": 1.734723475976807e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.2130240807103965, "platformFee": 1.2021706801183993, "liquidityFee": 7.2130240807103965}

0

1000

LarsDoucet

1705437617521

0.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

1

36

0

21

[{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672903}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime":...

["science-default", "mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"]

0.12099692680608679

0.5

1705437617382

1678830440539

0.45

8PmnzwzuirNYqNGB464O

{"NO": 150, "YES": 150}

0.45

will-the-united-states-end-title-42

0

Will the United States end Title 42 by May 30 2022

1649398961758

klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2

cpmm-1

0

2.063941914206022

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649352461672

Scott Owens

This market resolves dependent on the status of Title 42

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649398961758

150

ScottOwens

1649352461672

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c

0

0.45

0.09543353007621616

qPBliCK2V0FQg6bQPxK8

{"NO": 895.2560970701794, "YES": 1847.7582860045454}

0.048630832535642404

p-np-537cbc88aa90

4256.717661475738

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

1807765140000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-16

10.320130213099803

False

basic

public

1649352946158

Lars Doucet

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (for P = NP) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np", "type": "text", "marks": ...

BINARY

{"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.381281646488606, "platformFee": 1.8594379130571048, "liquidityFee": 10.161367022016707}

0

1000

LarsDoucet

1714988873676

0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

51

0

40

[{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672900}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime":...

["science-default", "mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"]

0.11767197511276957

0.5

1714988870433

1692003033325

vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY

who-will-win-first-place-in-the-fir

808.2267649003197

Who will win first place in the first round of the French presidential election?

1649632223076

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.681521880570528

True

play

e24fa3861b7f

public

1649353835697

Enopoletus Harding

Only answers I make will be chosen.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.639999999999997, "platformFee": 1.1599999999999993, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649632223076

660

EnopoletusHarding

1649353835697

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "908317eab424", "prob": 0.004720063585385809, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03900590827563287, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.224846383121964, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353835964, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1649622494810

{"e24fa3861b7f": 100}

True

0.3231895909394457

YyFEDk7MBEhIGGn3zwhb

{"NO": 254.54372504829936, "YES": 14.931992066406567}

1

private-market-will-doubleslit-repl

269

Private market: Will double-slit replicate?

1650005940000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

4.040648717004408

True

play

YES

public

1649357776442

Daniel Reeves

If you don't know what that means, this market is not for you! Apr 8, 12:43pm: It occurs to me I should've been clearer that I don't mean the literal double-slit experiment from physics. It's just an obscure codename!

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.220622482852387, "platformFee": 0.3701037471420647, "liquidityFee": 2.220622482852387}

0

1650302672668

102.2206224828524

dreev

1649357776442

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

6

0

1

0.3

0.890593182340295

0.6861393682131518

Go6RGU3X4fEJ12Hq1njM

{"NO": 256.1024442927561, "YES": 73.70362932994244}

1

will-the-invoice-metadata-processor

546.8046174354745

Will the "Invoice Metadata Processor" Successfully run this time

1649372400000

v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1

cpmm-1

0

3.211890945841429

True

play

YES

public

1649361466041

peeps

My company has been working on a background processor for a few months and it runs into issues every time it runs. Most recently, we ran into a memory issue and found that our node.js runtime only had 1gb of memory when we thought it would have 4gb. We're running it again now after increasing our production memory limi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.610983763608003, "platformFee": 0.6018306272680005, "liquidityFee": 3.610983763608003}

0

1649377333858

101.99149498414711

peeps

1649361466041

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae0-0e37e3271034

3

0

1

0.7

0.8836704639304684

0.5017586427042311

MnihdkEwEPGoipFtSggB

{"NO": 67.68100345781038, "YES": 41.51235542369803}

1

if-i-order-mint-chocolate-huel-this

63.561401741630746

If I order Mint Chocolate Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel?

1668978986888

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

4.269605361115998

True

play

YES

public

1649363250548

Tetra

I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4800293212119147, "platformFee": 0.2466715535353191, "liquidityFee": 1.4800293212119147}

0

1668978986888

51.480029321211916

Tetraspace

1675390658973

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

6

0

7

0.5

1667245259599

1675390657112

0.6214833448983351

0.3381893509553886

ZVfI3pXc4gLdh7GXwtNv

{"NO": 45.38497057815374, "YES": 414.85591706838846}

0.05294398345719189

will-levy-rozman-gothamchess-become

2128.8928984039517

Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024?

1733115540000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1649364450011

DAL59

Apr 7, 6:04pm: GM means chess GM, not any other definition of GM

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011843742527048236}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.701955854082348, "platformFee": 0.48720069652043363, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246}

0

120.49180327868852

DAL59

1718189754794

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

11

0

1

8

0.5

1718189751120

1657676393953

0.02592778211773182

H8ttYol0k1b9Qa9LgTSR

{"NO": 108.1386505968283, "YES": 212.04881926095592}

0

will-my-house-burn-down-this-year

103.92162480563566

Will my house burn down this year?

1673683200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.989504303360574

True

play

NO

public

1649364475277

Isaac King

I live in Barriere, British Columbia. There are wildfires near here every year; last year was particularly bad. Resolves to yes if my house is significantly damaged by a fire this year. (Doesn't need to completely burn to the ground.) Apr 7, 4:44pm: Hmm, now someone stands to profit by burning down my house. Guess I s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2049337921844577, "platformFee": 0.034155632030742955, "liquidityFee": 0.2049337921844577}

0

1673775443294

110.20281085435886

IsaacKing

1673775440701

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

7

0

1

7

0.04

1673439104611

1673775437116

0.01

0.6271689087379845

wd9giVEambpkA0Q9FYGg

{"NO": 1000.5344048897078, "YES": 946.73177247449}

0.64

will-elizabeth-holmes-be-in-jail-on

676.0758788081689

Will Elizabeth Holmes be in jail on Jan 1 2027?

1798858800000

v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1

cpmm-1

0

9.684445288105088

False

basic

public

1649367376569

peeps

If Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of Theranos convicted of Wire Fraud in 2022, is in jail on Jan 1, 2027, this will resolve to YES.

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7199940324095095, "platformFee": 0.007424632536559798, "liquidityFee": 0.04454779521935878}

0

1000

peeps

1686025027254

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae0-0e37e3271034

17

0

8

0.25

1686025027135

hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL

what-was-the-most-famous-prediction

75

What was the most famous prediction for year 2020?

1652641140000

iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.123293619158119

True

play

37af5c5ee089

public

1649368703573

JuJumper

Resolution criteria suggestions are appreciated. Apr 11, 11:21am: I will just resolve this to the most popular answer, I guess

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0799999999999996, "platformFee": 0.5199999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652647197879

320

JuJumper

1652512250747

0

https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "428b914b1a18", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.653247439994765, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.56655929999346, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL", "createdTime": 1649368703774, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

1652512249112

1649498210808

{"37af5c5ee089": 100}

True

0.9590341745166624

QMIn5ZbfFY7iS8nTUdXB

{"NO": 0.3349334337749298, "YES": 41.41081153785677}

0

i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for-51e8fb5a0531

101.98180803159411

I will work on project X today, for at least 2 hours, before 11:00

1649973540000

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

9.575044658380058

True

play

NO

public

1649368879741

Account deletion requested

https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for continuation

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.22372094923681923, "platformFee": 0.037286824872803215, "liquidityFee": 0.22372094923681923}

0

1652209108671

50.22271315436316

Accountdeletionrequested

1649368879741

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

8

0

1

0.99

1649377170570

0.1592020874314989

gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE

how-many-years-until-dalle-2-is-rep

460.0174189136071

How many years until Dall-E 2 is reproduced by someone else and made open source and generally available?

1661222836810

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.730062051147938

True

play

4531ad0c5342

public

1649370983233

Lars Doucet

This is Dall-E 2: https://openai.com/dall-e-2/ It's an impressive generative art AI that can generate cool images from a text prompt. Right now it is closed down by OpenAI and if GPT-3 is any indicator will remain so for some time, at best being available as a commercial SaaS solution. So this market is for you to pl...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.199303243455718, "platformFee": 2.5498258108639296, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661222836810

740

LarsDoucet

1667655779476

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4d9eb71c6f83", "prob": 0.05949345483197802, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3466830147318123, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.289134967853453, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649370983417, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452075}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588287}]

["ai", "technology-default"]

1661219006496

1667655777751

{"4531ad0c5342": 100}

True

0.1909201357705068

S56RNlwQSo6nF4mbxhDb

{"NO": 115.58801352945615, "YES": 2263.7648524572005}

0

will-nintendo-announce-a-new-consol

2658.1777235805944

Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2022?

1672488701292

Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2

cpmm-1

0

3.3183361125916484

True

play

NO

public

1649372053326

Pacc

This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.07351975617713, "platformFee": 0.5266581901674265, "liquidityFee": 3.159949141004559}

0

1672488701292

243.15994914100455

pakoito

1672489488475

0

https://firebasestorage.…266-0a377ab634a1

17

0

14

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459496}]

["nintendo"]

0.5

1672125517996

1672489484892

0.01

0.19852200142940604

7YcWmQU9ZWWkFuApTewJ

{"NO": 28.971404239504626, "YES": 510.6189660855699}

0

will-wizards-of-the-coast-split-fro

461.28115561179936

Will Wizards of the Coast split from Hasbro during FY22?

1664665140000

Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2

cpmm-1

0

7.74514420552447

True

play

NO

public

1649372752810

Pacc

This market resolves to YES if Wizards of the Coast remains a subsidiary of Hasbro by the end of FY22. Close date updated to 2022-10-01 11:59 pm Apr 8, 12:50am: This market resolves to NO if Wizards of the Coast remains a subsidiary of Hasbro by the end of FY22. The title is the correct one.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5992698157844264, "platformFee": 0.09987830263073774, "liquidityFee": 0.5992698157844264}

0

1664671839843

50.599269815784425

pakoito

1664632551544

0

https://firebasestorage.…266-0a377ab634a1

7

0

1

7

0.2

1664632551364

1649375356122

0.013858898186764935

0.44933478873111315

6aaRuDI45DbzRw3zmDz9

{"NO": 28.8257388777232, "YES": 474.6959835152455}

0

will-meta-stock-see-historical-maxi

478.976900211961

Will Meta stock see historical maximums during 2022?

1672508159828

Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2

cpmm-1

0

3.6791745091649384

True

play

NO

public

1649373015794

Pacc

This market resolves to YES if Meta stock surpasses $382.18 in the day the Market closes.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.215864156914634, "platformFee": 0.12480724953904364, "liquidityFee": 0.7488434972342617}

0

1672508159828

100.74884349723426

pakoito

1667245205375

0

https://firebasestorage.…266-0a377ab634a1

8

0

8

0.45

1667245205110

1654231578980

0.05

0.520114030344139

5xHk0cGiRA0WtrOptX5l

{"NO": 216.00703504041275, "YES": 53.50590728197726}

0

in-everything-could-stay-the-same-o

557

In " everything could stay the same or we could change it all", will at least one doctor or nurse know for sure that Tadesse is also an alien wizard by April 15?

1649995140000

9m93tV1LfzOxrKmT6EySaE1foTi2

cpmm-1

0

2.9277255733368532

True

play

NO

public

1649374554539

Manya

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.668339712757323, "platformFee": 0.4447232854595539, "liquidityFee": 2.668339712757323}

0

1650041776677

102.6683397127573

Manya

1649374554539

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhxH957rtCro1HPsUM-O099u1Z7k3wee2_0J9LHmQ=s96-c

6

0

1

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1670517791590}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1649886338950

0.8139704417655435

0.5000000000000002

dQ7hq4riPQtM7OWModk1

{"NO": 5.2597027112740875, "YES": 475.3120351538663}

0

will-mathlib-be-ported-to-lean-4-by

600.3468202305814

Will mathlib be ported to Lean 4 by the end of September?

1664600340000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

6.374594416351725

True

play

NO

public

1649378431791

Bolton Bailey

The mathlib community intends to port its codebase from Lean 3 to Lean 4 in the coming months. This resolves to YES if, by the end of September, there is a main mathlib repository in Lean 4 which contains successfully ported code corresponding to all the Lean 3 code currently in the repository.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.030927835051547, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664604452573

50

BoltonBailey

1664594725444

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

5

0

1

5

[{"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1667164635544}]

["the-lean-theorem-prover"]

0.5

1664594725201

0.010944677551450368

0.7234165860904479

mcnjRnjZ3sUWcx7SE8aj

{"NO": 9.16409173285091, "YES": 118.94967774608648}

0

the-sri-lankan-rupee-versus-the-usd

134.3809670854864

The Sri Lankan Rupee versus the USD will hit 400-to-1 by May.

1650610740000

93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2

cpmm-1

0

5.630797304813007

True

play

NO

public

1649378473358

John Smith

With the collapse of the Sri Lankan government, the value of the Sri Lankan rupee is plummeting. For more, see here: https://www.ft.com/content/b6c91edf-d8b3-42d6-8eef-c42f2f2544b3

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4540128925602707, "platformFee": 0.40900214876004515, "liquidityFee": 2.4540128925602707}

0

1650637428362

51.651098901637404

JohnSmith

1649378473358

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c

5

0

1

[{"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1686160735655}]

["asia"]

0.75

0.1677113513781149

0.7490933370962453

w8ZhCQwkcVqbXAWsjYhN

{"NO": 11.619259006006743, "YES": 255.59668434694063}

0.11950203802311793

will-a-city-get-nuked-this-week-amp

329.69367880637793

Will a city get nuked this week (amplified odds, see description)

1650031140000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

4.3362369307784485

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649380183939

Undox

Yes another silly nuke market Yes if nuke before close. City definition: Pop > 10000 affected (not necessarily dead, could be disease etc) No if no nuke and first ethereum mainnet block of the hour after closing ends with 000 (4095-1 odds) NA otherwise Close wont change Freaking grim! Be ashamed if you bet. Apr 16, 1:...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.670459315902553, "platformFee": 0.9450765526504253, "liquidityFee": 5.670459315902553}

0

1650078802316

103.20381187632495

Undox

1649380183939

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

10

0

1

[{"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701348545}]

["amplified-odds"]

0.8

1649985853100

0.11950203802311793

0.5968869559577659

kPBP6IAwNThELLvY8cIa

{"NO": 1799.359853766365, "YES": 176.88733853686946}

0.9377417732249909

will-at-least-100000-russian-soldie

1624.5502710459568

Will at least 100,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

1.219704658015474e-15

1.1481908032757502

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649381725140

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10557/100k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711993822838

820.0017964070748

MetaculusBot

1704085140000

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

20

0

19

3

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371020}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224123}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.10643869439138222

0.03

1703437167131

1711993820692

False

0.94

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.6642687238037348

YgHyllqXdVoze6we5Zjb

{"NO": 5674.739695966981, "YES": 125.92736380178603}

0.9889088033261231

will-at-least-50000-ukrainian-soldi

5924.939765807334

Will at least 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

2.439409316030948e-15

1.6817612191808782

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649381785207

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10551/ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711993802054

780.9645427752258

MetaculusBot

1704085140000

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

22

0

19

3

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370718}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223962}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.11248269917223308

0.17

1703641443331

1711993798219

False

0.99

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.01999517786074523

1Hz59sEGisicDCHJSFBF

{"NO": 494.34336590525817, "YES": 924.9520906705679}

0

will-odessa-be-under-russian-contro

425

Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.31831828294519

True

play

NO

public

1649381850568

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10493/odessa-under-russian-control-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2874559765937612, "platformFee": 0.04790932943229353, "liquidityFee": 0.2874559765937612}

0

1654218948872

500.2874559765938

MetaculusBot

1649381850568

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372191}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223677}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.02

False

0.010786893545258368

0.020012220193761598

EPsaVI6wZ5jYNyyvzGCf

{"NO": 502.16906282659727, "YES": 470.439359657935}

0

will-dnipro-be-under-russian-contro

238

Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.271201079882118

True

play

NO

public

1649381931913

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10495/dnipro-under-russian-control-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7569379694208783, "platformFee": 0.12615632823681305, "liquidityFee": 0.7569379694208783}

0

1654218896774

500.7569379694209

MetaculusBot

1649381931913

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372202}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223836}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.02

False

0.02133318878829151

0.6000143580293578

dYYQTB7jotWMTBmp0vBe

{"NO": 511.50454404643614, "YES": 494.0661200417809}

1

will-at-least-25000-ukrainian-soldi

50.02334104627661

Will at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1671580109006

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

0.7584224608666532

True

play

YES

public

1649381991129

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10553/25k-ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8757556968292312, "platformFee": 0.08072815790842075, "liquidityFee": 0.4843689474505245}

0

1671580109006

500.48436894745055

MetaculusBot

1667245316222

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

0

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372223}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224055}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.6

1667245316092

False

0.61

0.26116135835581034

IIwM69PHGCgZk06oyAXB

{"NO": 1290.4411708196712, "YES": 554.2243979406734}

0.4514605204975512

will-at-least-100000-ukrainian-sold

2616.4682652528036

Will at least 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1704085140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0.14812013922084666

0.49473708442163167

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1649382038883

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10554/100k-ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711993760474

1160.6277982016136

MetaculusBot

1712001470913

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

41

0

19

4

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371400}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223898}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.12216592261330886

0.03

1704055051833

1712001470261

False

0.45

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

0.731890538674811

mg9ZfHDza1h1r5Fm4CRS

{"NO": 8935.119726169325, "YES": 214.1157515542243}

1

will-at-least-50000-russian-soldier

14525.276688278731

Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1691666172582

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.444640719377408

True

play

YES

public

1649382099639

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10556/50k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.593939794156485, "platformFee": 0.3210439924855249, "liquidityFee": 1.9262639549131493}

0

1691666172582

861.9262639549131

MetaculusBot

1691649201882

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

39

0

19

[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662050680100}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662050675865}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w...

["ukraine", "russia", "wars", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.1263817261056937

0.3

1691649174917

1691649199440

False

0.99

0.039997319217392656

XUiKwwTrKO6gRAuKEdvr

{"NO": 496.60051212343024, "YES": 600.9663447212894}

0

will-sumy-be-under-russian-control

101

Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

4.747186928821661

True

play

NO

public

1649382137356

Metaculus Bot

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10494/sumy-under-russian-control-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2019316722633059, "platformFee": 0.03365527871055098, "liquidityFee": 0.2019316722633059}

0

1654218918926

500.2019316722633

MetaculusBot

1652623087285

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

2

0

1

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372317}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223968}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.04

1652623086906

False

0.03328243257252795

0.7868884285778202

vkqlYM1StUF4zsOqCDq9

{"NO": 1436.0363519693747, "YES": 402.6731983501136}

1

will-at-least-25000-russian-soldier

1913.693209238379

Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

1671580144432

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.1263897759743715

True

play

YES

public

1649382188872

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10555/25k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.471404808902907, "platformFee": 0.8253486901554052, "liquidityFee": 4.952092140932431}

0

1671580144432

524.9520921409325

MetaculusBot

1669236825922

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

14

0

14

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371629}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224124}]

["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.78

1669236825769

False

0.93

0.8057811133675999

6ks50VF49hXY7zMsaQun

{"NO": 3251.598175873842, "YES": 409.43290267509025}

1

will-mariupol-be-under-russian-cont

8385.74249693991

Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1?

1654055940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.162740320817337

True

play

YES

public

1649382241487

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10492/mariupol-under-russian-control-on-june-1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 56.80513430547542, "platformFee": 9.467522384245907, "liquidityFee": 56.80513430547542}

0

1654218983390

556.8051343054756

MetaculusBot

1654055410221

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

42

0

1

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529413006}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471367}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId":...

["politics-default", "world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.81

1654055408936

1651032910040

False

0.9705438878698616

0.09830876746370461

9EG79Y5i8RC3l2iQIY6O

{"NO": 967.4153104933023, "YES": 1231.6079313344087}

0.07888404774554761

will-elon-musk-buy-a-significant-sh

280.2971253023754

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

1807160340000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

0

10.200914731195153

False

basic

public

1649385550204

Lars Doucet

Consider the following: Elon Musk has a net worth of $219B [1] Jeff Bezos has a net worth of $171B [1] Twitter has a market cap of $40 B [2] New York Times Co has a market cap of of $7.58 B [3] Bezos Purchased the Washington Post for $250 M [4] Musk purchased 9% of twitter for $2.89 B [5] It is therefore not complete...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003385172495309674}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7507832285425704, "platformFee": 0.19350046195776863, "liquidityFee": 1.1610027717466118}

0

1000

LarsDoucet

1719520125798

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

18

1

9

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["politics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.25

1719520122733

1649386678691

False

6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N

who-will-win-this-game-of-dune-the

2513.7196298907515

Who will win this game of Dune the board game among friends?

1649395905175

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.636381806429127

True

play

159ad56209e0

public

1649386633298

James

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 14.370397593001528, "platformFee": 3.592599398250382, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1649395905175

460

JamesGrugett

1649386633298

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e4acf9b93a0d", "prob": 0.001847889033166432, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00954106189655622, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.153681255737544, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386633462, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

{"159ad56209e0": 100}

True