p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.4683669984320063 | EaamYKURuaC35MmUR8ua | {"NO": 2.0900595620248374, "YES": 69.22196350703207} | 0 | will-i-create-a-new-mm-account-and | 140 | Will I create a new MM account and transfer my Mana to it in April? | 1649992018542 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.969075723002646 | True | play | NO | public | 1649020098538 | Undox | The reason I consider doing this is because there are UI issues for me and I suspect they are related to my trading history placing a lot of small bets and suchlike.
However if the UI is better I wont.
Apr 15, 1:06pm: i promise i wont | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4648273342660984, "platformFee": 0.07747122237768307, "liquidityFee": 0.4648273342660984} | 0 | 1649992018542 | 10.464827334266097 | Undox | 1649020098538 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1649225158848 | 0.025911207347095358 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016648960888216335 | xw5c4EU64gG39ZE1KfxW | {"NO": 992.1257545864286, "YES": 1348.5393853614594} | 0.012302841950676978 | will-russian-orthodox-church-offici | 5178.764128046049 | Will Russian Orthodox church officially switch from worshiping Jesus to some other deity before 2025? | 1736449200000 | Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1649020113972 | Jeremy Moonders | BINARY | {"day": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": 2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6165675223391232, "platformFee": 0.1990803045315646, "liquidityFee": 1.1944818271893876} | 0 | 1000 | JeremyMoonders | 1689084203252 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 15 | 0.05 | 1689084203128 | 1663658020069 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17717183471672596 | KbclztmNRCMluDhbqLxR | {"NO": 48.10953397533399, "YES": 2372.902884387645} | 0 | will-canada-build-and-operate-an-of | 2454.0680092774364 | Will Canada Build and Operate an Offshore Wind Farm by the end of 2023? | 1704125633218 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.834946579441309 | True | play | NO | public | 1649029590249 | Jasper Woodard | This market resolves Yes if power is being generated at an offshore wind farm in Canada on or before January 1st, 2024. Several projects have been proposed on both coasts, but little progress has been made. Construction times have come down quickly, and the US has approved it's first offshore wind farm near Martha's Vineyard. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.46426592278173967, "platformFee": 0.053671226182944023, "liquidityFee": 0.32202735709766417} | 0 | 1704125696126 | 180.32202735709768 | JasperWoodard | 1704125696523 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526998}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1668527422338}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139990295}] | ["science-default", "canada", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.02 | 1704097452629 | 1663803236079 | 0 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6 | this-market-resolves-on-some-day-th | 72 | This market resolves on some day this week. The day on which it resolves will be a surprise. | 1649037897391 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.139644984965413 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649037809682 | Isaac King | Apr 3, 10:03pm: Gah, screwed up answers. Resubmitting. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649037897391 | 300 | IsaacKing | 1649037809682 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b8f5b2757b08", "prob": 0.48225308641975306, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.851521736269014, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.96219373605842, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037809997, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.417", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649037897000, "totalLiquidity": 57.87037037037037, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2a5da956ef3a", "prob": 0.019483024691358024, "text": "This market will resolve on Monday", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.32956285690973075, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.585821798734273, "textFts": "'market':2 'monday':6 'resolv':4", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037838851, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.418", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649037897000, "totalLiquidity": 2.337962962962963, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1c8ea11c4de6", "prob": 0.21604938271604937, "text": "This market will resolve on Tuesday", "index": 2, "poolNo": 13.610260496410962, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.38580237269122, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'tuesday':6", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037845281, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.418", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649037897000, "totalLiquidity": 25.925925925925924, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "22f2602842e6", "prob": 0.25462962962962965, "text": "This market will resolve on Wenesday", "index": 3, "poolNo": 17.859059785156234, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.278338643820966, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'wenesday':6", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037854144, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.417", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649037897000, "totalLiquidity": 30.555555555555557, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "509352dddf19", "prob": 0.027584876543209878, "text": "This market will resolve on Thursday", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.5575219373576877, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.65362298056017, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'thursday':6", "contractId": "Hav7Pyhtg4VbvX27ykt6", "createdTime": 1649037871808, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.417", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649037897000, "totalLiquidity": 3.310185185185185, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ | this-market-resolves-on-one-day-thi | 1213.9640854411264 | This market resolves on one day this week. The day on which it resolves will be a surprise. | 1649395682146 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.693342068555365 | True | basic | ffa1f21d6803 | public | 1649037976389 | Isaac King | Apr 5, 8:55am: "This week" being April 3-9.
Apr 7, 10:24pm: Surprise! People should pay more attention to time zones. ;) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.42273728820523, "platformFee": 5.8556843220513075, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649395682146 | 1399.9999999999998 | IsaacKing | 1649037976389 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9cddc1e98388", "prob": 0.006630594387802671, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.045745079353314455, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.853346718127911, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649037976703, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.875", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5599168594144478, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f5ea13e09e04", "prob": 0.017372157296042995, "text": "This market will resolve on Monday", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.5646330145151264, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.937548775177607, "textFts": "'market':2 'monday':6 'resolv':4", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038002843, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 4.246527339032732, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f2c14937ed5f", "prob": 0.007714215393714598, "text": "This market will resolve on Tuesday", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.1934713724125104, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.886379595988938, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'tuesday':6", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038011609, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 2.1942657119899303, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "03d4c209ff36", "prob": 0.015187918479631685, "text": "This market will resolve on Wednesday", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.8382782230352328, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.35547490116256, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'wednesday':6", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038017975, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.873", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 6.750185990947416, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ffa1f21d6803", "prob": 0.047681001161972554, "text": "This market will resolve on Thursday", "index": 4, "poolNo": 4.315048669722779, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 86.18323292181806, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'thursday':6", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038026139, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.873", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 19.2843160255089, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8134eefa8341", "prob": 0.40820995514137315, "text": "This market will resolve on Friday", "index": 5, "poolNo": 123.55857597512605, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 179.1253111249195, "textFts": "'friday':6 'market':2 'resolv':4", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038033126, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.873", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 148.76985031818933, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5047fc5da5bf", "prob": 0.4343603415914712, "text": "This market will resolve on Saturday", "index": 6, "poolNo": 169.16978806190076, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 220.2989821349189, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'saturday':6", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649038038738, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 193.04904070732053, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "dd4838187684", "prob": 0.05398246216262244, "text": "This market will resolve on Sunday", "index": 7, "poolNo": 4.183789076664361, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.31895735347578, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':4 'sunday':6", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649043747426, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.87", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 17.51430994609528, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3f16656433cf", "prob": 0.008861354385368773, "text": "This market will not resolve that week.", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.1713003563790598, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.15987058312185, "textFts": "'market':2 'resolv':5 'week':7", "contractId": "Kq5EUsAZkaCn66liElzJ", "createdTime": 1649069515541, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:49.871", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395682000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8116546743420605, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1649395452975 | {"ffa1f21d6803": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.75 | ehpyGt3D7FaQjbp1U7m3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.75 | will-the-daily-volume-traded-for-ax | 0 | Will the daily volume traded for Axie Infinity's Ronin network fall below 40 Ethereum on any day before the end of April? | 1649310625589 | 8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6967849629863747 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649050656402 | BowTrix | Will the daily volume traded for Axie Infinity's Ronin network fall below 40 Ethereum before the end of April? (this would be a 50% decrease from the current daily volume).
Read: Will Axie Infinity die before the end of April? Axie Infinity is a dying pyramid scheme that has recently been hacked for over 600 million dollars. As of today, the stolen funds are being slowly moved through Tornado Cash. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649310625589 | 100 | BowTrix | 1649050656402 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6327636825688511 | Zst8vYE66k3XMKTFPWxP | {"NO": 82.80931174948056, "YES": 120.46055361939837} | 1 | will-the-swiss-people-vote-yes-on-t | 112 | Will the Swiss people vote YES on the Amendment to the Federal Act on Film Production and Film Culture? | 1652601600000 | AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8972959746828604 | True | play | YES | public | 1649056345362 | Sjlver | On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Amendment to the Federal Act on Film Production and Film Culture.
Domestic television broadcasters are obliged to invest 4 per cent of their turnover in Swiss filmmaking. In so doing, they make an important contribution to local film production. However, films and series are increasingly also offered for download on the internet (streaming). For the streaming services, which are often globally active, there has so far been no investment obligation in Switzerland.
The amendment to the Film Act stipulates that streaming services must in future also invest 4 per cent of the revenue generated in Switzerland in local filmmaking. They can either participate directly in Swiss film and series productions or pay a substitute levy that benefits Swiss film promotion. In addition, 30 per cent of the streaming services' content must consist of films or series produced in Europe. A referendum has been called against the amendment.
https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220515/amendment-to-the-federal-act-on-film-production-and-film-culture.html
This will resolve YES if the majority of the Swiss voters accept the amendment. No majority of states is needed for the amendment to pass (since it's not a change to the constitution). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5191160225427565, "platformFee": 0.4198526704237927, "liquidityFee": 2.5191160225427565} | 0 | 1652630239015 | 102.51911602254275 | Sjlver | 1652411467076 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493865}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.64 | 1651653385528 | 1652411466439 | 0.542226586239607 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6512844630551134 | UNDAThL89TBY3UYmPWY7 | {"NO": 183.2000719895631, "YES": 75.05026087922008} | 1 | will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a | 86 | Will the majority of Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act? | 1652601600000 | AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.097463834115128 | True | play | YES | public | 1649056780163 | Sjlver | On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Transplantation Act.
Over the past five years, an average of around 450 people in Switzerland have received one or more organs from a deceased person each year. However, the need for organs is much greater. Today, a transplant is only possible if the deceased person has consented to the donation during his or her lifetime (consent solution). However, the wish of the person concerned is often unknown. It is then up to the relatives to decide. In the majority of cases, they are against organ donation.
The Federal Council and Parliament want to increase patients' chances of receiving an organ. They are therefore seeking to change the rules regarding organ donation: Anyone who does not wish to donate their organs must state this during their lifetime (contradiction solution).
If a person has not objected, it is assumed that they are willing to donate their organs. The relatives are involved regardless. They can refuse organ donation if they know or suspect that the person concerned would have chosen not to do so. If no relatives can be contacted, no organs may be removed. The amended Transplantation Act is a counter-proposal to the popular initiative 'Encourage organ donation - save lives'. This also calls for a move to the contradiction solution, but does not regulate the role of the relatives.
It was withdrawn on condition that the amended Transplantation Act comes into force. Because a referendum has been sought against the law, it will be put to the vote.
https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220515/transplantation-act.html
This will resolve YES if the majority of the Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act. No majority of states is needed for the act to pass (since it's not a change to the constitution). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2229148471743367, "platformFee": 0.2038191411957228, "liquidityFee": 1.2229148471743367} | 0 | 1652630213036 | 101.22291484717432 | Sjlver | 1652478257715 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489007}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.65 | 1652478256423 | 1652411185629 | 0.8201126388394999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6835492835616261 | pJJvSdchYrgH6igxpFGN | {"NO": 442.59129582992955, "YES": 53.63346789433011} | 1 | will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a-2472f785ce44 | 380.2054264760035 | Will the majority of Swiss voters accept the Adoption of the Regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard and repealing Regulations (Development of the Schengen Acquis)? | 1652601600000 | AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6236424208930917 | True | play | YES | public | 1649057029692 | Sjlver | On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Adoption of the Regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard and repealing Regulations.
Switzerland is part of the Schengen Area. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) provides operational support to the Schengen states in controlling the external borders of the Schengen Area. Switzerland has been working with Frontex for over ten years.
Moves have been under way since the end of 2019 to expand Frontex. The Federal Council and Parliament have decided that Switzerland would participate in the expansion of Frontex. A referendum has been sought against such a move. Opponents argue that Switzerland is partly responsible for alleged human rights violations by Frontex due to its financial support for the agency.
Frontex will receive more money and staff as a result of the expansion. In addition, it is taking on new tasks such as the return of migrants required to leave the Schengen Area. In addition, the staff of the Fundamental Rights Office will be increased. It helps to protect the fundamental rights of those involved in operations at the Schengen external borders. Under the bill put forward by the Federal Council and Parliament, Switzerland would play its part in this reform. Its financial contribution to Frontex would gradually increase. And It would also provide more staff and material.
If Switzerland rejects this further Schengen development, its cooperation with the Schengen and Dublin states would end automatically - unless the EU states and the European Commission were prepared to accommodate Switzerland.
https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220515/adoption-of-the-regulation-on-the-european-border-and-coast-guard-and-repealing-regulations.html
This will resolve YES if the majority of the Swiss voters accept the regulation. No majority of states is needed (since it's not a change to the constitution). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2743999861562942, "platformFee": 0.37906666435938235, "liquidityFee": 2.2743999861562942} | 0 | 1652629985804 | 102.27439998615631 | Sjlver | 1652593201486 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505419}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.68 | 1652593199997 | 1652411326898 | 0.9468792890903263 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13259640350001337 | 7aJk6TWGAqNvVE4DWok4 | {"NO": 136.12524259333117, "YES": 49.382927573923084} | 0 | will-i-unfollow-lxrjl-by-end-of-yea | 254.38127657404402 | Will I unfollow @lxrjl by end of year | 1672531356033 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.429977413114014 | True | play | NO | public | 1649098697239 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively if I am no longer following Alex Lawsen on Twitter by end of year.
Apr 4, 3:16pm: See [this tweet](https://twitter.com/lxrjl/status/1511053170511912964) for context | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.161895981002328, "platformFee": 0.09820175080660713, "liquidityFee": 0.5892105048396428} | 0 | 1672531356033 | 120.58921050483963 | NuñoSempere | 1672533119658 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 0.1 | 1669003606671 | 1672533118229 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08 | WrxY7nbF0JTVYeTQqopz | {"NO": 500, "YES": 500} | 0.08 | will-i-be-convinced-that-emf-fields | 0 | Will I be convinced that EMF fields I live with are a health concern | 1649118924179 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4771950651352523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649099490890 | Undox | Feel free to post evidence each way and convince me. Initial prob shows where
I am at.
Will I be convinced either low frequency EMF like from house wiring and power lines, OR high frequency like wifi and cell phones is worth worrying about.
Resolves yes if I think there is a health risk similar to say one of: a poor diet, smoking, alcohol, exposure to toxins through a hazardous job.
Might resolve to a prob if i am undecided. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649118924179 | 500 | Undox | 1649099490890 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5862171626365126 | hdWDcQuy1aDtknfgZe64 | {"NO": 2576.397702266138, "YES": 1866.6240534354736} | 0.6616396723575233 | will-fully-autonomous-level-5-selfd | 11776.449622697932 | Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030? | 1893484740000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.6999538072884075 | False | basic | public | 1649104522404 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market's resolution piggybacks on Jeff Atwood and John Carmack's bet documented on the Coding Horror blog: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However they resolve their bet is how this market resolves.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0073456733457266665, "week": 0.0073456733457266665, "month": 0.03811910922676143} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.41687904917973, "platformFee": 2.65290323469937, "liquidityFee": 14.215476191729682} | 50 | 2253.2364244808855 | dreev | 1720192386634 | 0 | 3 | 98 | 1 | 50 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452518}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588367}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039683}] | ["ai", "technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.5 | 1720192383466 | 1716957017013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.586301466054117 | WvhP0m0AIeVaZVwSJvHU | {"NO": 280.2591563464016, "YES": 70.07527166538951} | 1 | if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading | 1540.7079133956372 | If Manifold eliminated all trading fees, would I deem it a success a month later? | 1672552740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6637244604562063 | True | play | YES | public | 1649113805213 | SG | Resolves YES if, conditional upon eliminating all trading fees on Manifold, I would deem the fee-elimination a success three weeks later. (If I revert the change after a day or two because I don't like it, this will resolve NO. If I don't remove fees a month before the close date, this will resolve N/A.)
A non-exhaustive list of factors that I would look for to deem feelessness a success:
- increased trading
- limited impact on market creation
- limited monetary inflation / no devaluing of Manifold dollars
- limited impact of Manifold dollar sales
- @Gurkenglas not being annoyed | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.246379492593285, "platformFee": 0.8650214814891887, "liquidityFee": 5.1901288889351305} | 0 | 1672985638474 | 125.19012888893513 | SG | 1667395419090 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 19 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1667395418903 | 1661649136368 | 0.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9747550024229199 | KV1m4CFkg0J8LXlJEmtV | {"NO": 3.1005419749095506, "YES": 41.17788507663992} | 0.7440704907846896 | will-my-change-to-a-female-twitter | 159 | Will my change to a female Twitter avatar work at boosting my Twitter engagement rate for the next two weeks? | 1650318527039 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.95541901853274 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649115394227 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if my Twitter engagement rate between April 4 and April 11 is on average higher than that between February 23 and April 1. It resolves to no if it is lower.
If I get banned or restricted during this time for any reason, this market resolves as N/A.
For context, my engagement rate rose from 5.5% to 9.3% on the first day I changed my avatar from the current one you see on Manifold to the current one you see on my Twitter page.
No, this is obviously not the real me, I'm male. It's just to fool the gullible.
Apr 4, 7:43pm: the 5.5% was the average for the preceding few weeks.
Apr 5, 2:53pm: close date updated to April 18 to further judge the effects. I put two weeks in the title and only one week in the description, the title wins.
Close date updated to 2022-04-18 11:59 pm
Apr 7, 8:07pm: Here are the numbers for the next few days: 6.7%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 4.9%
Apr 14, 7:43pm: More numbers: 5%, 5.1%, 6.2%, 5.5%, 5%, 4.6%, 4.9%
Apr 15, 8:57pm: 5.8%
Apr 16, 8:09pm: 6.3%
Apr 17, 2:45pm: I'd honestly give it a 50-50 at this point.
Apr 17, 10:41pm: 5.4%
Apr 18, 5:47pm: and on the very last day of the experiment... restricted for ten days. Well, time to resolve as N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7977743923726073, "platformFee": 0.13296239872876792, "liquidityFee": 0.7977743923726073} | 0 | 1650318527039 | 50.797774392372595 | EnopoletusHarding | 1649115394227 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.99 | 1649141616638 | 0.7440704907846897 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW | what-is-the-real-percentage-of-amer | 272.3670369982675 | What is the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers? | 1649791263867 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.896076451773026 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649115572132 | Enopoletus Harding | I will choose the answer according to who has the best argument re: the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers. Only options I create will be chosen.
Apr 4, 7:39pm: If you guys do not post arguments, this will be resolved as N/A.
Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-29 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3890804412288531, "platformFee": 0.09727011030721328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649791263867 | 580.0000000000001 | EnopoletusHarding | 1649115572132 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b248d9736592", "prob": 0.10591834729215134, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8886327147778665, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.82486229522233, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115572397, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.707", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 11.297957044496144, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b879088b8ffd", "prob": 0.08089702694420503, "text": "5-15%", "index": 1, "poolNo": 4.480056885336123, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.899690116071405, "textFts": "'-15':2 '5':1", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115600361, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 15.100778362918273, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f44a31fcf7ca", "prob": 0.022132211304678837, "text": "15-30%", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.6215326016680143, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.46118326941261, "textFts": "'-30':2 '15':1", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115611513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 4.131346110206716, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "65441652ee12", "prob": 0.010300455670163034, "text": "30-50%", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.15412191362116215, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.80850872684668, "textFts": "'-50':2 '30':1", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115621599, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.721", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 1.5107334982905787, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7a06cdd61145", "prob": 0.003744586219135111, "text": "over 50%", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.03367067528961291, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.958157345000927, "textFts": "'50':2", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649115652495, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 0.549205978806483, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4e8428a38df9", "prob": 0.7770073725696667, "text": "0-5%", "index": 5, "poolNo": 160.9513251311928, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.191271983304794, "textFts": "'-5':2 '0':1", "contractId": "7CqpcohY8bliFhT5CLWW", "createdTime": 1649118261284, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:07.709", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649791263000, "totalLiquidity": 86.2238159397289, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1649180471797 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5271709030350114 | yY8ZjRoZcBZURR7n8qQS | {"NO": 12841.931031939434, "YES": 105.58612375687937} | 1 | will-trump-be-allowed-back-on-twitt | 33712.74096591176 | Will Trump be allowed back on Twitter before the end of the year? | 1668929902242 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4239718432196935 | True | basic | YES | public | 1649118963290 | SG | h/t @NathanYoung https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1511049753005637636 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.960811741886204, "platformFee": 5.865700453151917, "liquidityFee": 35.1942027189115} | 0 | 1668929902242 | 1082.9097342283194 | SG | 1668921373012 | 0 | 159 | 0 | 131 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "GJPg4HglipYKPeNTy23KmSK4Ttd2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1666996383354}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "userId": "GJPg4HglipYKPeNTy23KmSK4Ttd2", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1666996390640}] | ["internet", "twitter", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1668921372912 | 1668911002584 | 0.9926795404197655 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | Nd44LzXo02dc4rywpyTP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | will-i-have-some-doctor-appointment | 0 | Will I have some doctor appointment scheduled about starting HRT by Jan 1 2023 | 1649119923073 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.888113252333105 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649119842024 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649119923073 | 100 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1649119842024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492227}] | ["olivia"] | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6015167162398741 | hocuEckCQfKq9My79IHK | {"NO": 306.67371587817945, "YES": 97.08158542580074} | 1 | does-olivia-has-an-appointment-abou | 163.01321590002416 | Does Olivia has an appointment about starting HRT before the start of 2023? | 1658904154100 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2460947931339894 | True | play | YES | public | 1649120492018 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | This market resolves to YES if Olivia has an appointment with a doctor (not therapist) to begin the process of going on HRT. This does not necessarily need to be getting the medication, but could be for things like blood draws before prescription.
Olivia is hoping to be a professor in computer science, and will be defending dissertation in a couple years. All other pressures are fairly generic.
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am
Apr 5, 12:02pm: Lives in United States | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7152208211136086, "platformFee": 0.29403907809212565, "liquidityFee": 1.764234468552754} | 0 | 1658904154100 | 151.7642344685528 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1658904250027 | 0 | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549935}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073359537}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492237}] | ["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"] | 0.6 | 1658904142208 | 1658904243739 | 0.7810372689951082 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi | if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading-4f53d011f024 | 360.01293173566455 | If Manifold eliminated all trading fees, how much does trading increase month over month? | 1663991940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.787077180934152 | True | play | ed220e8e9e4b | public | 1649128366724 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MM is considering eliminating trading fees. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Comments on the above market speculate as to whether eliminating trading fees would drive increased trading. Although we can't isolate exactly what change would be due to eliminating trading fees, it's worth tracking. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the month over month change of Trades in the Daily Activity chart on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/analytics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/analytics", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", calculated as the average number of trades made in the 30 days after fees are eliminated minus the average number of trades made in the 30 days including and before fees are eliminated, rounded to nearest 25 percentage points. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example if trading fees were eliminated Apr 4th: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Daily average trades Mar 6th - Apr 4th (inclusive): 500 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Daily average trades Apr 5th - May 4th (inclusive): 600 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* Month over month change = (600-500)/500 = 20%, rounded to nearest 25% = +25% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Acceptable answers: increments of 25 percentage points, i.e. -25%, 0%, +25%, +50% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If fees are not removed a month before the close date, this will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-09-23 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03895473645906236, "platformFee": 0.00973868411476559, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664627057408 | 839.9999999999998 | dglid | 1664627050007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "53fed56a6fb9", "prob": 0.1413445132831273, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.2054297577625475, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.547615904071158, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649128366963, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.535", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 10.365264307429337, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "85b662e07ca3", "prob": 0.543799756958364, "text": "0%", "index": 1, "poolNo": 156.06440452161874, "userId": 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0.04124949995534216, "text": "+50%", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.3119334567977088, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.492899528281963, "textFts": "'+50':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145173600, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.535", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 6.3249233264857985, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8c14d5fcc39a", "prob": 0.036824677978248045, "text": "+75%", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.104059147023303, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.877442596874076, "textFts": "'+75':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145180868, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.537", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 5.646450623331368, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a63fa72cf96a", "prob": 0.0266597913391945, "text": "+200%", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.6765335890911891, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.700018705846237, "textFts": "'+200':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145201357, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.575", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 4.087834672009824, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2ba610031aef", "prob": 0.016618279144474033, "text": "+175%", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.2448362230381869, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.488110606754397, "textFts": "'+175':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145213277, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.575", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 1.8834049697070572, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2e198b4700f5", "prob": 0.01629923851554127, "text": "+150%", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.23778099012429868, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.350691342345424, "textFts": "'+150':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145236998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.835", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 1.847247031761344, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d306c1ad72b0", "prob": 0.004679242101003745, "text": "+125%", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.023527900190487266, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.00461547914872, "textFts": "'+125':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145243872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.835", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 0.34314442074027474, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ed220e8e9e4b", "prob": 0.026845016629127038, "text": "+100%", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.6836614432176049, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.783316382224577, "textFts": "'+100':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649145250566, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.836", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 4.116235883132813, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5f06fd7f25f", "prob": 0.026236496510677356, "text": "-25%", "index": 10, "poolNo": 0.31581550004007997, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.72144335849516, "textFts": "'-25':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649186255956, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.835", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9240097441163397, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "55b415cf217e", "prob": 0.008099779322455427, "text": "+1000%", "index": 11, "poolNo": 0.05367563769244726, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.573126841189857, "textFts": "'+1000':1", "contractId": "Jop4jRPWgtWMLSOAVBdi", "createdTime": 1649789340449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:01.834", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1664627057000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5939838169800647, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664640845007}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1662568713229 | 1664627043532 | {"ed220e8e9e4b": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7934696382447688 | HGulh0HH4KmQfUOmPyqk | {"NO": 10.263825614408908, "YES": 77.88677714896204} | 0 | will-neutrino-stablecoin-usdn-crash | 28 | Will Neutrino stablecoin USDN crash this month? | 1649296800000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.991122862117541 | True | play | NO | public | 1649129613434 | Undox | Resolves YES if https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/neutrino-usd/ is below 10c at an point this month.
More info on background:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/tw7mng/neutrino_usd_usdn_is_losing_its_11_peg_to_us/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/tway3y/the_vires_finance_defi_ponzi_offering_apys_105_is/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/twecd6/update_vires_finance_is_now_desperately_pushing_a/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6793371062277581, "platformFee": 0.1132228510379597, "liquidityFee": 0.6793371062277581} | 0 | 1651450644341 | 50.679337106227756 | Undox | 1649129613434 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1649181694812 | 0.3361134073702926 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5044461844280578 | keAzHLinG2YInK3Jx03Y | {"NO": 218.35108178953962, "YES": 50.28952949277863} | 0.66 | what-will-be-the-result-of-mit-grad | 137 | What will be the result of MIT grad student unionization election? | 1649249940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.956632799779354 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649130648349 | Jenny | For more information about the election see https://mitgsu.org.
Resolves PROB with value Y/(Y+N), where Y and N are the numbers of valid YES and NO votes respectively.
Apr 5, 12:15am: Rounded to the nearest percentage point.
Apr 6, 1:01pm: https://thetech.com/2022/04/08/grad-students-unionize | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.063022654327193, "platformFee": 0.3438371090545322, "liquidityFee": 2.063022654327193} | 0 | 1649438492536 | 102.06302265432718 | Jenny | 1649130648349 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741669}] | ["mit"] | 0.5 | 0.66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9788807465929507 | tZwjqJqYq3r4UXGY7Cux | {"NO": 0.9952746492804633, "YES": 42.82607047802752} | 0 | i-will-work-on-project-x-today | 27 | I will work on project X today | 1649195940000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.08712817083736 | True | play | NO | public | 1649152765795 | Account deletion requested | I procrastinated for month and if I do not change something I will procrastinate also today.
This is an attempt to motivate me to change it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08473462774660057, "platformFee": 0.014122437957766763, "liquidityFee": 0.08473462774660057} | 0 | 1649206089776 | 50.084734627746606 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1649152765795 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1649186219435 | 0.5185767264083475 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8000663452975489 | YKECv5OnLqk5t3JiCKNa | {"NO": 749.1264076304034, "YES": 60.75897852519222} | 1 | will-bill-self-coach-a-game-for-kan | 723.8136406467848 | Will Bill Self coach a game for Kansas in the 2022-2023 season? | 1679696272459 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.02318353958346 | True | play | YES | public | 1649157974189 | David Glidden | https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/after-winning-his-second-title-will-kansas-coach-bill-self-be-competing-for-a-third-championship-next-season/
Kansas coach Bill Self led the Kansas men’s college basketball team to a National Championship in 2022. He and the team are likely to face multiple penalties from the NCAA in the 2022-2023 season. There are also other reasons Self may not coach a single Kansas game in 2022-2023 (retirement, job change, etc).
This market will resolve YES if Self coaches a game for the Kansas Jayhawks at any point in the 2022-2023 season, including postseason. This market will resolve NO early if he is suspended for the entire season, changes jobs, retires, etc.
See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG7e6ZL2pqU&ab_channel=EyeOnCollegeBasketball | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1992081916265755, "platformFee": 0.03320136527109592, "liquidityFee": 0.1992081916265755} | 0 | 1679696272459 | 100.19920819162658 | dglid | 1677198410885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.8 | 1677198410722 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30971500951272357 | At5fSfpWpAovh0dTt6R2 | {"NO": 59.84814331098899, "YES": 750.2122860577917} | 0 | will-the-kansas-jayhawks-be-banned | 758.9923020204599 | Will the Kansas Jayhawks be banned from participating in the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament before December? | 1669870740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.353265769452946 | True | play | NO | public | 1649160828968 | David Glidden | Kansas coach Bill Self led the Kansas men’s college basketball team to a National Championship in 2022. He and the team are likely to face multiple penalties from the NCAA in the 2022-2023 season. Will it include a ban from participating in the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament?
Resources:
* https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/after-winning-his-second-title-will-kansas-coach-bill-self-be-competing-for-a-third-championship-next-season/
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG7e6ZL2pqU&ab_channel=EyeOnCollegeBasketball
This market will resolve YES if the NCAA announces, prior to December 1st, 2022, that the Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball team is banned from participating in the 2023 NCSS men's basketball tournament. This market will resolve NO if no ban has been administered by that time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5090375865736959, "platformFee": 0.08483959776228267, "liquidityFee": 0.5090375865736959} | 0 | 1669936227242 | 140.5090375865737 | dglid | 1669853486101 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0.4 | 1669853485953 | 0.03455630378547006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4293746630933064 | dD2byJSgbF4B72n2m5Kl | {"NO": 39.58048951472534, "YES": 340.82444290008596} | 1 | will-drew-timme-be-back-at-gonzaga | 223.95519435625908 | Will Drew Timme be back at Gonzaga for the 2022-2023 men's basketball season? | 1667275140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.386083078423745 | True | play | YES | public | 1649161234605 | David Glidden | On the Eye on College Basketball podcast on April 5th, 2022 (https://youtu.be/UG7e6ZL2pqU?t=2379), Gary Parrish states that he assumes Drew Timme will be back at Gonzaga for the 2022-2023 men's basketball season. Matt Norlander responds that he thinks there's it's "60-40 he's back".
This market resolves YES if Drew Timme is on the Gonzaga roster at the time of tipoff of their first game of the 2022-2023 season, expected sometime in October 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0533425994856, "platformFee": 0.17555709991426668, "liquidityFee": 1.0533425994856} | 0 | 1667362797476 | 121.0533425994856 | dglid | 1667274336778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1667274336662 | 1650504711270 | 0.08036233379472676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | wcZHri2xzt1ZoBzROP7v | {"NO": 450, "YES": 450} | 0.5 | will-caltech-accept-at-least-10-stu | 0 | Will Caltech accept at least 10 students from its first-year undergraduate applicant waitlist for the Class of 2026? | 1649175633169 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8026827818486038 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649171909790 | tenadome | This market resolves to YES when the waitlist closes and statistics are released. Resolution data will be sourced from an official statement, most likely via email announcement or Caltech's Common Data Set. This information should be available by the end of August 2022. Note: Class of 2026 = freshmen entering Caltech in Fall 2022.
Apr 5, 10:18am: Caltech's CDS from previous years can be found online. Here's the CDS from 2020-2021, containing data for the Class of 2024:https://iro.caltech.edu/documents/20056/caltech_cds_2020-2021.pdf 10 students were accepted from the waitlist that year.
I was unable to find data for the Class of 2025 online, but I know that 0 were accepted from the waitlist last year (this announced via email; I can add an Imgur screenshot or something if the CDS just doesn't exist online).
Some more useful data: Caltech admitted 536 students for the Class of 2024, and apparently 432 (I saw this on Reddit but haven't verified it) for the Class of 2026.
Apr 5, 10:42am:
Market liquidity is not visible for some reason, but I've subsidized this market with 450M. You can verify this via Ctrl-U -> Ctrl-F "liquidity"
Apr 5, 10:42am: ^under totalLiquidity | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649175633169 | 450 | nmehndir | 1649171909790 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11661969792352085 | W1lPgNYKS0CIH0SiJQUB | {"NO": 905.5421218959331, "YES": 1397.8816866389252} | 0.07878164168753156 | will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of-f27836a908da | 3529.7228504726577 | Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032? | 1956549540000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.023319764048164 | False | basic | public | 1649176118100 | Lars Doucet | Long-term clone of this market with a closing date 10 years out instead of 3:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of
-----
The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “calories in, calories out” aren’t sufficient:
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/
But is it true? In ten years let’s see if expert consensus (judged as experts I personally deem to be credible and worth listening to) accepts the hypothesis. For my standards this will require a burden of solid evidence backed replicated research.
Closes early if consensus is reached early.
Apr 5, 11:28am: Tags
#Obesity #Medicine #Science #SlimeMoldTimeMold #Chemistry #Nutrition | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.556018409794799, "platformFee": 1.9082237714422248, "liquidityFee": 11.44934262865335} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1712673733919 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1 | 46 | 0 | 35 | [{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423399}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529294}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132773989}] | ["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.5 | 1712673730483 | 1684269278131 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4 | how-many-firstyear-undergraduate-ap | 5547.155604110777 | How many first-year undergraduate applicants will be accepted from Caltech's waitlist for the Class of 2026 (i.e. freshmen entering in Fall 2022)? | 1654145940000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.66592667271413 | True | play | 5dc5b6fa3bda | public | 1649177265022 | tenadome | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*****09/21/2022: I have not forgotten about this market. Caltech has not posted its 2022-2023 CDS yet (I checked https://finance.caltech.edu/Resources/cds). This market will resolve as soon as data becomes available, but I do not know for sure when that will be. If you find resolution data before I do, please comment it and I'll resolve the market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES when the waitlist closes and statistics are released. Resolution data will be sourced from an official statement, most likely via email announcement or Caltech's Common Data Set. This information should be available by the end of August 2022. Apr 5, 11:48am: Caltech's Common Data Sets (CDS) from previous years can be found online. Here's the CDS from 2020-2021, containing data for the Class of 2024:https://iro.caltech.edu/documents/20056/caltech_cds_2020-2021.pdf 10 students were accepted from the waitlist that year. I was unable to find data for the Class of 2025 online, but I know that 0 were accepted from the waitlist last year (this announced via email; I can add an Imgur screenshot or something if the CDS just doesn't exist online). Some more useful data: Caltech admitted 536 students for the Class of 2024, and apparently 432 (I saw this on Reddit but haven't verified it) for the Class of 2026. Apr 28, 8:26pm: Free arb @ https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-the-linked-market-be-accurate !", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8189894035458565e-14, "platformFee": 4.547473508864641e-15, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1687286064563 | 380 | nmehndir | 1687286051266 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "01a4cfc457dd", "prob": 0.0027192162072070996, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.01703876569072515, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.249018948133226, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177265227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:16.786", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1687286064000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3263059448648519, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "31dbc3329085", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "< 10", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177310479, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:41.541", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1687286064000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ec06b1b8f34a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": ">= 10", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177319196, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.43", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1687286064000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ccdefa2207cc", "prob": 0.5369403077823418, "text": "< 10", "index": 3, "poolNo": 119.62036362500993, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.16112975749125, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177469378, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.925", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1687286064000, "totalLiquidity": 111.08632613223797, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "5dc5b6fa3bda", "prob": 0.46014047601045116, "text": ">= 10", "index": 4, "poolNo": 67.96968466461672, "userId": "w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.74538977076706, "textFts": "'10':1", "contractId": "jECeZrrCGYNXqcc22gC4", "createdTime": 1649177485912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:17.923", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1687286064000, "totalLiquidity": 73.62247616167218, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 5 | 1687286046808 | {"5dc5b6fa3bda": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA | when-will-my-newsletter-reach-2000 | 693 | When will my newsletter reach 2,000 subscribers | 1672549140000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6847380429865835 | True | play | e4b8b70c9236 | public | 1649183364600 | Nuño Sempere | Apr 5, 2:29pm: Because the initial set of answers is mutually exclusive, I will by default resolve options which other people add as negative. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1689411794503 | 580.0000000000001 | NuñoSempere | 1672995114461 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0fac8bdaf5b", "prob": 0.5205632911260617, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.2882103579163, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.07822858679948, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183364799, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.972", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 51.13991561322009, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e4b8b70c9236", "prob": 0.15853442693269534, "text": "Not by the end of 2023", "index": 1, "poolNo": 18.349994427944452, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.39770014526526, "textFts": "'2023':6 'end':4", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183431558, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.966", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 42.2758471820521, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "88b2dfb9e114", "prob": 0.15821792445169072, "text": "By June 30th, 2023", "index": 2, "poolNo": 18.291630500875808, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.31872505312376, "textFts": "'2023':4 '30th':3 'june':2", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183455647, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.971", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 42.19144652045086, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3d4db0a28fdc", "prob": 0.04685069620134555, "text": "By the end of 2022", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.9389221773567968, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.44620834501763, "textFts": "'2022':5 'end':3", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183464987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.971", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 8.745463290917836, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2efd9d360551", "prob": 0.11333287523763715, "text": "By June 30th, 2022", "index": 4, "poolNo": 9.184197517213088, "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.8531669540897, "textFts": "'2022':4 '30th':3 'june':2", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1649183486591, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.971", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 25.68878505386442, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "711400c54849", "prob": 0.0025007860505696007, "text": "Between June 30th, 2023 and the end of 2023", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.013356333352506215, "userId": "zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.327497735096917, "textFts": "'2023':4,9 '30th':3 'end':7 'june':2", "contractId": "xsB4IWchhKBpaGVaJmyA", "createdTime": 1651717726800, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:24.967", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1689411794000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2667505120607574, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 40 | 6 | 1653493190371 | 1672995153485 | {"e4b8b70c9236": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16118711195628596 | tMlSLJwXuqHthD0kG7wh | {"NO": 24.82035230230019, "YES": 659.0531162048584} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-turn-my-existing-18f22bbe8829 | 677.1482275262699 | Will I be able to turn my existing "numeric" markets into markets that show up as numeric on the UI by the end of 2022? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.179700903669493 | True | play | NO | public | 1649188774143 | Tetra | Currently, I have a few fake numeric markets, by being probabalistic markets on a scale where 1% = some quantity. These are somewhat ugly. At some point, #ManifoldMarkets might make the UI on these questions look nicer, such as displaying the scale as a scale determined by the question author.
It would be nice if this happened AND I was able to convert my existing markets; will this happen? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.406934477294174, "platformFee": 0.234489079549029, "liquidityFee": 1.406934477294174} | 0 | 1672531513037 | 71.40693447729416 | Tetraspace | 1671140201739 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.5 | 1671140201625 | 1668212517518 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09528626113529558 | 2REztKJoPPVo4EOqo97b | {"NO": 9563.732950209915, "YES": 31825.187881819696} | 0.030679136098612857 | 100-amplified-odds-details-within-w | 46209.57021423639 | (100× amplified odds; details within) Will a nuclear weapon hit London in 2022? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.1126321958205474 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1649191308468 | Tetra | This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in or above Greater London.
If a nuclear weapon does not hit London, then I will check the first 42 digits of the MNIST beacon, mod 100, for the first beacon after this question closes, or another public fair source of randomness if that turns out to be a bad way to generate a public truly random number for whatever reason. If it is 0, I will resolve NO. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A. This means that, for this market, you should treat NO as if it is 100 times less likely to happen than it actually is.
For example, if your actual expected outcome is 0.01% YES, 99.99% NO, you should expect this to resolve with probabilities 0.01% YES, 0.9999% NO, 98.9901% N/A, which means that your price of a YES share should be ~1% (actually 0.99%).
Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability):
0.02% YES => ~2% YES' (actually 1.96%)
0.05% YES => ~5% YES' (actually 4.76%)
0.1% YES => 9% YES'
0.2% YES => 17% YES'
0.5% YES => 33% YES'
1% YES => 50% YES'
2% YES => 67% YES'
5% YES => 84% YES'
10% YES => 92% YES'
20% YES => 96% YES'
50% YES => 99% YES'
100% YES => 100% YES' | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672538944600 | 10740.844301089968 | Tetraspace | 1672581527974 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 65 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529412547}, {"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701348543}] | ["world-default", "amplified-odds"] | 0.1 | 1672418766032 | 1672581525048 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07616254886947968 | 9V68mze3XtYrzzxgyDAo | {"NO": 81.9880413780938, "YES": 251.8961369096496} | 0 | will-i-complete-my-first-video-game | 264.8303261706308 | Will I complete my first video game by the end of the year? | 1673503200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.27329555087594 | True | play | NO | public | 1649193028944 | Isaac King | I taught myself to program in order to build websites that I wanted to exist, and eventually I'd like to get into making video games as well. (For fun, not as a career.) I have many ideas for games I'd like to create, including some that are simple enough that I expect I could complete them within a few months if I dedicated a significant amount of my time to that, but I currently have other projects that take priority and don't foresee those going away any time soon. Also, the only language I know right now is Javascript, so there'd be a bit of a learning curve before I could properly start on any game. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.628969848311871, "platformFee": 0.08338771988266347, "liquidityFee": 0.5003263192959808} | 0 | 1673847971774 | 90.50032631929598 | IsaacKing | 1673775384441 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 1673403272806 | 1673775381381 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27061842856140056 | XKvgfW0ShKFSq21BCwv1 | {"NO": 138.0421995296932, "YES": 572.2601030854433} | 0.08214741797909555 | conditional-on-manifold-integrating | 1216.0985571166977 | Conditional on Manifold integrating with crypto in some way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023? | 1705039200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2342996642111026 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649194889409 | Isaac King | Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something decentralization, we haven't really figured out how that would work or why it'd be good". No one mentioned a significant benefit that crypto would provide to the platform's functionality.
While appealing to more users is a good thing in and of itself, cryptocurrency is a hot culture war topic at the moment. Manifold aligning itself with crypto may well result in losing access to millions of potential users who are vehemently opposed to crypto. I'm not convinced this tradeoff would be a net positive for the site.
In the bigger picture, many other prediction markets are run with crypto in order to get around gambling regulations, and many of the same people who are into crypto are also into prediction markets, so there's already an association between the two in public discourse. Given the potential benefits of widespread adoption of prediction markets, it seems important that the community push back against this association and try to keep general discourse about prediction markets from becoming politically polarized. Accordingly, there may be value in having some prediction markets that intentionally distance themselves from the cryptosphere.
Apr 5, 4:41pm: Other half here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-not-integra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1706373241627 | 213.02433559806474 | IsaacKing | 1706373241869 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0.5 | 1704698578469 | 1676672035685 | 0.08 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16899052456396302 | d1lPJyfksiYos4m73tJV | {"NO": 119.57032705711755, "YES": 7070.043353954041} | 0 | conditional-on-manifold-not-integra | 10118.03583910755 | Conditional on Manifold *not* integrating with crypto in any way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023? | 1705039200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.217250314167267 | True | play | NO | public | 1649194914012 | Isaac King | Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something decentralization, we haven't really figured out how that would work or why it'd be good". No one mentioned a significant benefit that crypto would provide to the platform's functionality.
While appealing to more users is a good thing in and of itself, cryptocurrency is a hot culture war topic at the moment. Manifold aligning itself with crypto may well result in losing access to millions of potential users who are vehemently opposed to crypto. I'm not convinced this tradeoff would be a net positive for the site.
In the bigger picture, many other prediction markets are run with crypto in order to get around gambling regulations, and many of the same people who are into crypto are also into prediction markets, so there's already an association between the two in public discourse. Given the potential benefits of widespread adoption of prediction markets, it seems important that the community push back against this association and try to keep general discourse about prediction markets from becoming politically polarized. Accordingly, there may be value in having some prediction markets that intentionally distance themselves from the cryptosphere.
Apr 5, 4:41pm: Other half here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-integrating | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.595957646175308, "platformFee": 0.32140081247861163, "liquidityFee": 1.9284048748716698} | 0 | 1706373290420 | 271.92840487487166 | IsaacKing | 1706373290690 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0.5 | 1704925968204 | 1659209149775 | 0 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eJHorJV5zQIXYiJnu7lk | what-number-am-i-thinking-of-61aef66174f7 | 160.90205483583514 | What number am I thinking of? | 1649833140000 | BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.903474255984532 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649196237699 | nfd | What number am I thinking of?
The number is in ℂ. Resolves to N/A if nobody guesses it.
Apr 5, 3:03pm: Oh, and I can write it down in closed form.
Apr 5, 3:05pm: Resolves at deadline. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654643098021 | 820 | nfd | 1654643133023 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cc71654341a2", "prob": 0.11245964089478572, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.241759455131868, "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.692142496673217, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eJHorJV5zQIXYiJnu7lk", "createdTime": 1649196237918, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.99", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654643098000, "totalLiquidity": 6.297739890108, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "85cb87a59c7a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "0", "index": 1, "poolNo": 5.60028002100175e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.559971999299965, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "eJHorJV5zQIXYiJnu7lk", "createdTime": 1649196280530, 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0.9889069217865397 | JAImgrgfT6X2FgX0cXec | {"NO": 1.3264877627665268, "YES": 52.22226095642313} | 1 | i-will-work-on-project-x-today-7fe1b0ef3cf7 | 4 | I will work on project X today | 1649282340000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.495059754803751 | True | play | YES | public | 1649206144793 | Account deletion requested | I procrastinated for month and if I do not change something I will procrastinate also today.
This is an attempt to motivate me to change it.
https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today has not worked | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1366957480917392, "platformFee": 0.022782624681956534, "liquidityFee": 0.1366957480917392} | 0 | 1649287438671 | 50.136695748091746 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1649206144793 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1649215945741 | 0.6936639022335929 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j | who-will-win-this-round-of-dune-the | 2364.5480279957505 | Who will win this round of Dune the board game I’m playing irl? | 1649218475974 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.641150747642099 | True | play | c52c3d6e7a2a | public | 1649209238085 | SG |
Close date updated to 2022-04-05 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.247119867810166, "platformFee": 4.811779966952542, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649218475974 | 480 | SG | 1649209238085 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edef369dca29", "prob": 0.0027833923609429977, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.017646075830893584, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.322126957431003, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209238283, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649218475000, "totalLiquidity": 0.3340070833131597, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9ffe27a52701", "prob": 0.0014007316906421551, "text": "Me", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.010492205920842487, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.480025779027733, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209255973, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649218475000, "totalLiquidity": 0.28014633812843104, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c52c3d6e7a2a", "prob": 0.9562388019175759, "text": "@JamesGrugett", "index": 2, "poolNo": 49.09519899123883, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.2467868106201556, "textFts": "'jamesgrugett':1", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209333189, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649218475000, "totalLiquidity": 10.502687539781776, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f4c2815c216d", "prob": 0.00044148280892959685, "text": "@banerjs", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0014845217544894461, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.3610965900418304, "textFts": "'banerj':1", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209351786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649218475000, "totalLiquidity": 0.07063724942873549, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "846b296b0b1b", "prob": 0.039135591221909384, "text": "@ JamesGiammona", "index": 4, "poolNo": 1.8955621874397213, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.540199947629894, "textFts": "'jamesgiammona':1", "contractId": "YmrcAmF56sYIWYjtBM8j", "createdTime": 1649209396479, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649218475000, "totalLiquidity": 9.392541893258253, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1649209778557 | {"c52c3d6e7a2a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13751865266446248 | HaT8aB3JGqrD5fJ3Yhdu | {"NO": 108.362238374795, "YES": 1253.8678022101128} | 0 | will-ftx-run-an-ea-fellowship-progr | 2202.093226449831 | Will FTX run an EA Fellowship program in the Bahamas in Q1 2023? | 1680321540000 | pVKxIFLoLpXHswiuEEzcAjK9JEv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.8432198348397035 | True | play | NO | public | 1649212719934 | Alex Demarsh | This market resolves "Yes" if FTX Foundation runs an [EA Fellowship program](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sdjcH7KAxgB328RAb/ftx-ea-fellowships) in the Bahamas for any period between January 1 - March 31 2023. Verification by public announcement on EA Forum, or other official statement.
Apr 5, 10:38pm: please add [markdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markdown) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.89240528660179, "platformFee": 0.8816361308697691, "liquidityFee": 5.289816785218615} | 0 | 1680530374074 | 205.28981678521862 | AlexDemarsh | 1680157427485 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6agovUKf1PNh7bIcMTfz1roQW3rzLGiP_P6L0_Q=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.5 | 1680157427374 | 1675444996938 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9001314516611557 | qnYmyNXXtADMFs8g9q7e | {"NO": 740.9788465309516, "YES": 376.9718925259628} | 1 | will-ukraine-attend-the-77th-un-gen | 390 | Will Ukraine attend the 77th UN General Assembly? | 1654573721521 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4966062381843983 | True | play | YES | public | 1649213531695 | Alex Power | Mr. Zelenskyy is clearly upset with the United Nations' lack of action in response to the Russian invasion. One option available to his government is to withdraw from the UN.
This market will resolve based on whether a delegate representing Ukraine makes any recorded vote at the 77th UN General Assembly, scheduled to be held in September 2022.
The market will resolve as N/A if the UNGA does not meet in September 2022, and may resolve early to "Yes" if there is an official statement from the UN that confirms Ukraine has withdrawn from the United Nations and does not plan to attend the 77th UNGA.
Jun 6, 10:47pm: that should have read "resolve early to No". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6447701666004324, "platformFee": 0.2741283611000721, "liquidityFee": 1.6447701666004324} | 0 | 1654573721521 | 401.64477016660044 | AlexPower | 1652758233072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.9 | 1652758186352 | 1652758231657 | 0.9465707543475365 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12530564504820782 | QI8qxlvO3Bqh3cPXasgQ | {"NO": 282.1090028480131, "YES": 25.589153915214467} | 1 | will-there-be-any-bugs-in-beeminder | 181 | Will there be any bugs in Beeminder's freeCodeCamp integration? | 1649357224806 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.240124932218794 | True | play | YES | public | 1649224028182 | Daniel Reeves | Strictly cosmetic bugs don't count (though please tell us about them anyway!)
Apr 7, 11:31am: Also if it's something sufficiently rare and inconsequential (like only happens in one browser set to one locale and doesn't prevent using the integration effectively even for that corner case) then we'd probably resolve to NO. HT Adam Wolf | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.638969824353342, "platformFee": 0.7731616373922237, "liquidityFee": 4.638969824353342} | 0 | 1649357224806 | 204.6389698243533 | dreev | 1649224028182 | 0 | 9 | 0 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383129978}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.12 | 1649357210473 | 0.6060883080322674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5 | how-will-market-creation-costs-work | 869.4782477183014 | How will market creation costs work in a month? | 1651831140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.686782174198932 | True | play | e2f33b03fa2f | public | 1649235610278 | Manifold | Today, market creators choose a subsidy at market creation time, to inject liquidity into the system. However, "liquidity" is a super weird and hard-to-grok concept; and deciding how much to put in is basically black magic.
Stephen has a proposal for fixing the market creation cost to M$ 100: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Proposal-Fixed-market-creation-cost-caeafb62e2ca4275bcac851d52219670
This market will resolve to the answer(s) that most closely describes the state of market creation as of market closing time. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.365208052903945, "platformFee": 5.591302013225986, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654344169609 | 900 | Manifold | 1651687524065 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e00e21a2e85e", "prob": 0.02210992799630626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.29921163915314003, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.233697161053133, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649235610481, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.555", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 1.9898935196675636, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "be171dea9feb", "prob": 0.03380362372260579, "text": "Exactly as today (flexible subsidy, M$ 10 minimum, liquidity pool returns to creator)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.5807099779983442, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.18084407815044, "textFts": "'10':7 'creator':13 'exact':1 'flexibl':4 'liquid':9 'm':6 'minimum':8 'pool':10 'return':11 'subsidi':5 'today':3", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649235698509, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.549", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 8.450905930651448, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1171309ed047", "prob": 0.15334463867930295, "text": "Fixed to M$ 100, liquidity pool is burned", "index": 2, "poolNo": 24.14633866028904, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 133.3181730973567, "textFts": "'100':4 'burn':8 'fix':1 'liquid':5 'm':3 'pool':6", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649235746200, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.554", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 56.73751631134209, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ab3d3a08b681", "prob": 0.02272807306256403, "text": "flexible liquidity, returns to provider, increases traffic", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.1438001611266955, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.18163473069776, "textFts": "'flexibl':1 'increas':6 'liquid':2 'provid':5 'return':3 'traffic':7", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649241246876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.56", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 7.500264110646129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "18d775453645", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Minimum of M$ 100, liquidity pool is burned", "index": 4, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "'100':4 'burn':8 'liquid':5 'm':3 'minimum':1 'pool':6", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649251201363, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.549", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009000000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6538b5ada546", "prob": 0.34588645955434383, "text": "As today but with increased minimum", "index": 5, "poolNo": 62.89836004394304, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 118.94848104079965, "textFts": "'increas':5 'minimum':6 'today':2", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1649292279132, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.554", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 86.49661488858595, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0636a8f7b2ad", "prob": 0.10182934994280728, "text": "Market Creation is Free, Market Visibility & Liquidity are solved using different mechanisms", "index": 6, "poolNo": 5.8287972462254345, "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.412039992735565, "textFts": "'creation':2 'differ':11 'free':4 'liquid':7 'market':1,5 'mechan':12 'solv':9 'use':10 'visibl':6", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1650538935519, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 17.310989490277237, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e2f33b03fa2f", "prob": 0.32019792704206995, "text": "One free market a day", "index": 7, "poolNo": 54.9384674587361, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 116.63811945501331, "textFts": "'day':5 'free':2 'market':3 'one':1", "contractId": "VHBmlkAOMPhbgiNOxwU5", "createdTime": 1650756569893, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1654344169000, "totalLiquidity": 80.0494817605175, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1651687522561 | 1650592455350 | {"e2f33b03fa2f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.672270007849918 | UTdc3zdKPztWXwyI5NpL | {"NO": 4.993753114585118, "YES": 433.45825417900454} | 0 | will-manifold-support-limit-orders | 1120.3504018598437 | Will Manifold support limit orders before July? | 1656669540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.163894329020337 | True | play | NO | public | 1649236002464 | Manifold | See Stephen's proposal in https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Proposal-Limit-Orders-87c65f6dfad444cc83ce017baa9e6714 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.844528092353816, "platformFee": 2.390282700098766, "liquidityFee": 14.341696200592603} | 0 | 1660324631447 | 121.69903067450377 | Manifold | 1660324656971 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1656664749955 | 1660324653138 | 0.023086777980669836 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4060612735387347 | A9jaafc57pfWDFiPKx9R | {"NO": 62.15783456679286, "YES": 1053.353230616668} | 0 | will-someone-recieve-funding-to-inv | 1613.0686659588614 | Will someone recieve funding to investigate the viability of selectively breeding octopuses for intelligence by the end of 2022? | 1672531140000 | CkfMukn0XXObAMkzFJohXBfpv283 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.514150525071866 | True | play | NO | public | 1649254691352 | Peter Barnett | There is some interest in breeding octopuses for intelligence, possibly as an alternative to computer-based AGI
https://twitter.com/richardmcngo/status/1492212649941037056?lang=en-GB
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DaFG3GKsBrsAnAERR/save-humanity-breed-sapient-octopuses
This market will resolve "YES" if at any time before December 31st 11:59 PM UTC 2022, I think there is sufficient evidence that someone has recieved funding to investigate whether it is viable to selectively breed octopuses for intelligence.
I think this funding would likely come from an EA or rationalist-adjacent funder, for example FTX, OpenPhil, Survival and Flourishing, New Science, ACX Grants, LTFF. The funding does not have to be from one of these sources. Joke funding for the purpose of winning this market will not count.
Apr 12, 2:08pm: Funding to actually do the breeding, rather than just investigate the viability will also lead to this resolving postively. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.108814694692385, "platformFee": 0.4853615027836428, "liquidityFee": 2.9121690167018572} | 0 | 1672532994912 | 222.91216901670182 | PeterBarnett | 1671566227269 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgD6oN3zKaT6jzZ5CSbbWKfuc85Z9q_RcT7qLK9zg=s96-c | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.5 | 1671566227071 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK | what-metric-is-most-advantageous-fo | 11971.87805459061 | What metric is most advantageous for Manifold Markets to track in order to monitor success of the platform? | 1650520740000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619766664996078 | True | play | 7896f8a403af | public | 1649260711182 | Ian Philips | Whichever has the highest probability will win.
Apr 6, 10:05am: It'd be great to hear more about the mission & goals of the platform. My assumption is that the goal is to create a platform for those who excel in truth-finding to survive solely on their related skills and abilities. Like youtube but for seers.
Apr 6, 11:12am: If a whale tries to steal the market in the last day or two by moving the market in an unexpected direction I'll extend the deadline to give people time to react.
Apr 7, 1:55pm: From the seed round meme: "Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful forecasting platform by allowing users to create and participate in their own prediction markets."
Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 163.41341386520745, "platformFee": 40.85335346630186, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650547998161 | 1299.9999999999998 | ian | 1649260711182 | 0 | 23 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e02aba48e087", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649260711531, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:46.537", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cabd8049fcf4", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Volume", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.0001435365887735743, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.435222351146969, "textFts": "'volum':1", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649260946850, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:30:46.537", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01435294117647059, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7896f8a403af", "prob": 0.6291301986216098, "text": "Mana Sales", "index": 2, "poolNo": 165.68584426583908, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.67115978331925, "textFts": "'mana':1 'sale':2", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649265630496, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.976", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 127.21135393164762, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c2686ae08696", "prob": 0.06331047847225041, "text": "Daily Active Users", "index": 3, "poolNo": 11.579713673471536, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 171.32387437233726, "textFts": "'activ':2 'daili':1 'user':3", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649265660701, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.976", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 44.540783678124406, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "932bdc53aa26", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Number of trades", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.00010353458862356177, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0352423516469942, "textFts": "'number':1 'trade':3", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649265735700, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.977", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "65493068155c", "prob": 0.00030017963644769557, "text": "Dev opinion", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.00033045465043335663, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.100525867063902, "textFts": "'dev':1 'opinion':2", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268011086, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.977", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.019070235727265367, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e9008f1e53f", "prob": 0.00022968947615470346, "text": "User opinion", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.00022117516614565962, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.962710038960055, "textFts": "'opinion':2 'user':1", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268033626, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.976", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.01459203730865175, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cfd8e848034a", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Market cap", "index": 7, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "'cap':2 'market':1", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268069872, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.978", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "62a2ec47d458", "prob": 0.00015529524544548415, "text": "Price of a particular market about Manifold success", "index": 8, "poolNo": 0.00012295488781019042, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7916262545453485, "textFts": "'manifold':7 'market':5 'particular':4 'price':1 'success':8", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268163075, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.976", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.009865815593007228, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "cd592cc046fc", "prob": 0.0004277562098393719, "text": "Predictive accuracy", "index": 9, "poolNo": 0.0012700718647722998, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.9678787927402053, "textFts": "'accuraci':2 'predict':1", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268298742, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.977", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.06139559717694514, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e74b3291614b", "prob": 0.30298424465982315, "text": "Extent to which mana flows into smarter hands", "index": 10, "poolNo": 76.6138778934082, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 176.2503526523971, "textFts": "'extent':1 'flow':5 'hand':8 'mana':4 'smarter':7", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649268554927, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.022", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 116.20336912835569, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "54da2efd904b", "prob": 0.00011548308829606435, "text": "Number of users that have resolved a traded market", "index": 11, "poolNo": 7.884560619769197e-05, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6826670643018856, "textFts": "'market':9 'number':1 'resolv':6 'trade':8 'user':3", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649279588925, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.019", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.007336572668220559, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8a57ec738d53", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Total utils produced", "index": 12, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "'produc':3 'total':1 'util':2", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649281389639, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:44.021", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "881ce6ad2296", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "The answer with the lowest % approx 10 seconds before resolution time", "index": 13, "poolNo": 0.00010353458862356177, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.0352423516469942, "textFts": "'10':7 'answer':2 'approx':6 'lowest':5 'resolut':10 'second':8 'time':11", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649307352735, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.673", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.010352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e367c3c25990", "prob": 0.00145704207801128, "text": "% of markets being resolved and being resolved correctly (optionally: weight by volume).\n\nthe biggest danger for Manifold are rug pulls and bad resolutions AND abandoned markets which are never resolved. Both need some handling if Manifold is going to scale (reputation tracking in some form at least).", "index": 14, "poolNo": 0.005762202423546482, "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.9489639585472642, "textFts": "'abandon':25 'bad':22 'biggest':14 'correct':8 'danger':15 'form':45 'go':38 'handl':34 'least':47 'manifold':17,36 'market':2,26 'need':32 'never':29 'option':9 'pull':20 'reput':41 'resolut':23 'resolv':4,7,30 'rug':19 'scale':40 'track':42 'volum':12 'weight':10", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649327494210, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.676", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.1508467092529325, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c91f9144c903", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Success of the platform", "index": 15, "poolNo": 6.353258847354927e-05, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6352623521470192, "textFts": "'platform':4 'success':1", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1649545848805, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.676", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.006352941176470589, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3e135e28d633", "prob": 0.0011896325121222308, "text": "The number of interesting markets (definition in comment)", "index": 16, "poolNo": 0.0026082700253870447, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.189892354166576, "textFts": "'comment':8 'definit':6 'interest':4 'market':5 'number':2", "contractId": "2eoR3bkage5bV1J6gicK", "createdTime": 1650073411690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:43.676", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1650547998000, "totalLiquidity": 0.07557665371129467, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1 | 1650480978182 | {"7896f8a403af": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.060394598246238614 | GsaypGCLwkOC0I44Jg3L | {"NO": 507.4095143755628, "YES": 510.90890013955385} | 0 | will-i-get-a-positive-cue-result-fo-51351908836b | 386 | Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month? | 1651388340000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.168738252242936 | True | play | NO | public | 1649263188553 | Mike Blume | I expect to test at least weekly. If at any time I get a positive result I will resolve YES. I will do a final test on May 6th and then resolve the market.
Apr 6, 9:39am: if I somehow lose the ability to test regularly I will resolve N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.82109024445543, "platformFee": 0.636848374075905, "liquidityFee": 3.82109024445543} | 0 | 1651890189990 | 503.8210902444554 | MichaelBlume | 1649263188553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 1651345319627 | 0.06000575761223457 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39640000868524194 | hb1XXHDkGoPUWGwwZovq | {"NO": 64.25291763103515, "YES": 185.00000000000009} | 0 | will-niplav-join-manifold-by-the-en | 85 | Will Niplav join Manifold by the end of 2022? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0836872199953316 | True | play | NO | public | 1649267644816 | Tetra | Niplav says on schelling.pt https://schelling.pt/web/statuses/108085296944093699
> raising the incentives for me to join manifold, I see
>
> But I will…resist……
But for how long can they hold out?
This will resolve positively if I become aware of Niplav joining Manifold before the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672539000100 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1672233130247 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1672233129073 | 1672538998073 | 0.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1978582772319345 | sQmAmAVYbQ69jIb6tzPN | {"NO": 35.152574115711225, "YES": 246.52657234043278} | 0 | will-yudkowsys-post-on-april-1st-mi | 201 | Will Yudkowsy's post on April 1st, "MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy", be published on intelligence.org by the end of June? | 1656630000000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.2308954349263175 | True | play | NO | public | 1649268956816 | Tetra | The post in question: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy
This does not include if it is linked to on a monthly newsletter, though would if it was linked to as the main topic of a post. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8311781500880764, "platformFee": 0.1385296916813461, "liquidityFee": 0.8311781500880764} | 0 | 1656716831573 | 50.83117815008808 | Tetraspace | 1659219933952 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1653307467880 | 1659219931718 | 0.03397692053410722 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35373350052154673 | YGZxcypK9tVhfIZS1vUq | {"NO": 34.76486532626562, "YES": 615.2556048955043} | 0 | will-elon-musk-bring-fleets-back-to | 500.6332066026987 | Will Elon Musk bring fleets back to Twitter before December 31st, 2022? | 1672541940000 | bPYDXxLWSOahKHJkn92dVzHxZ2M2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.063387402778417 | True | play | NO | public | 1649269966990 | Maia M | This market resolves to "YES" in the event that Twitter brings back fleets or creates a fleet-like function before the end of 2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6181583729483155, "platformFee": 0.34663339903209456, "liquidityFee": 2.0798003941925676} | 0 | 1672547193315 | 122.07980039419257 | MaiaM | 1710451931601 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8-xeadMyBlflZ9HDs_-wBHMhhPkHfcunULWWf=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1672538165472 | 1672547220015 | False | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2039822896541731 | Hg90ELfsWaJzKneEKFTs | {"NO": 308.9614899421766, "YES": 328.0719877568823} | 0 | will-the-current-israeli-coalition | 384 | Will the current Israeli coalition survive until January 2023? | 1655753220000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7088871688657294 | True | play | NO | public | 1649273717054 | John Smith | https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/06/middleeast/israel-coalition-majority-lost-intl/index.html
The ruling coalition no longer has a majority with Idit Silman having quit. The Knesset (Israeli parliament) has a 60-60 balance.
This market will resolve NO if re-elections are <declared> before January 2023, i.e. the re-elections don't have to happen but have to be scheduled.
Resolves YES if the ruling coalition can survive.
Set to close on Nov-30-2022 otherwise.
Apr 7, 7:27am: Response to Amnonian: it will resolve YES.
Close date updated to 2022-06-20 3:27 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.679452076767104, "platformFee": 1.0742819235657255, "liquidityFee": 6.445691541394353} | 0 | 1656267859478 | 306.44569154139435 | JohnSmith | 1655751449092 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480098}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562175}] | ["israeli-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.2 | 1655751447886 | 1649331487216 | 0.19441014393007347 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5113150942156034 | 8uhQ4L0OaysKdsai2QHc | {"NO": 797.277297122803, "YES": 147.8541627262282} | 0.8494436597128295 | is-crime-in-our-neighborhood-increa | 866.219239301784 | Is crime in our neighborhood increasing? | 1649919540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2882468724790193 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649275167688 | Daniel Reeves | Our neighborhood being 57th Ave and Klickitat in Portland, Oregon.
Listening to folks on the Nextdoor app sure makes it seem like Portland is going to hell in a handbasket, but what will the data say?
The Portland Police Bureau publishes data here: https://public.tableau.com/views/New_Monthly_Neighborhood/MonthlyOffenseTotals
The graphs on that website aren't showing an obvious upward trend but it's kinda noisy and hard to tell. Maybe by downloading the data and making our own graph we'll get better insight?
This market resolves to YES if I end up convinced that crime is in fact rising here.
Apr 6, 3:25pm: Amending this to "crime clearly increasing". From the graphs viewable on the website linked above, there's arguably some increase but it looks like it could be random fluctuation. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.407179414135358, "platformFee": 2.567863235689225, "liquidityFee": 15.407179414135358} | 0 | 1650682604261 | 319.97973206730796 | dreev | 1649275167688 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649353953064 | 0.8494436597128295 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz | what-books-will-i-think-are-the-bes | 165 | What books will I think are the best to recommend to people who want to improve themselves and/or their communities? | 1768291200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649282008137 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I run some seminars/workshops on topics like self-improvement, providing useful feedback, effective communication, and other topics that relate to building an epistemically-healthy community. At the end, I like to recommend some books to people for further reading. Currently I'm recommending some combination of The Scout Mindset, Thinking in Bets, Thinking Fast and Slow, and The Elephant in the Brain, depending on the exact topic that we were discussing. I'd like to expand this list, particularly to books that focus less on cognitive biases and more on other areas. These are for a general audience, so they need to not rely on much prior knowledge. If there are too many books suggested for me to read them all, I'll pick 5-10 of them that seem most promising. I don't have all that much time for reading nowadays, so reading them all will take a while. Once I've read all the ones I plan to read, any that I decided to start recommending at my seminars are the ones that will win this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-01-13 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 320 | IsaacKing | 1716691265852 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cc8fb000335e", "prob": 0.09182736455463728, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.0879164419120775, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.429493610510455, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz", "createdTime": 1649282008315, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9081726354453628, "week": -0.9081726354453628, "month": -0.9081726354453628}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:06.982", "probChangeDay": -0.9081726354453628, "probChangeWeek": -0.9081726354453628, "totalLiquidity": 12.855831037649219, "probChangeMonth": -0.9081726354453628}, {"id": "0ec9562a2ef9", "prob": 0.015280073461891646, "text": "How to Actually Change Your Mind, Eliezer Yudkowsky", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.3426133688771649, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.079619726509403, "textFts": "'actual':3 'chang':4 'eliez':7 'mind':6 'yudkowski':8", "contractId": "i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz", "createdTime": 1649772732103, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12738110623632512, "week": -0.12738110623632512, "month": -0.12738110623632512}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:06.986", "probChangeDay": -0.12738110623632512, "probChangeWeek": -0.12738110623632512, "totalLiquidity": 2.7504132231404963, "probChangeMonth": -0.12738110623632512}, {"id": "8af1fc916ef7", "prob": 0.048080808080808064, "text": "The pragmatist guide to live, Malcolm and Simone Collins", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.9450470036296537, "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.50866168530643, "textFts": "'collin':9 'guid':3 'live':5 'malcolm':6 'pragmatist':2 'simon':8", "contractId": "i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz", "createdTime": 1670518549579, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2617416771262925, "week": -0.2617416771262925, "month": -0.2617416771262925}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T20:29:06.98", "probChangeDay": -0.2617416771262925, "probChangeWeek": -0.2617416771262925, "totalLiquidity": 8.65454545454545, "probChangeMonth": -0.2617416771262925}, {"id": "29a9315b23b3", "prob": 0.844811753902663, "text": "Nonviolent Communication, Marshall Rosenberg", "index": 3, "poolNo": 50.691766053898334, "userId": "SiFmPIV5zvhp9PMrkmdmLJfqIXw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.311857025118275, "textFts": "'communic':2 'marshal':3 'nonviol':1 'rosenberg':4", "contractId": "i9zV9SuMQUw8kYzs8Zcz", "createdTime": 1682941048030, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:50:19.019", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 21.726354453627174, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 27 | 5 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559785}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659013941642}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1691182258592}] | ["books", "recommendations", "personal-goals"] | 1682941048030 | 1673829822444 | False | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y | what-will-the-charity-with-the-most | 235.46711692045392 | What will the charity with the most cost-effective intervention+region on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.93013574535545 | True | play | 8e6b507811e6 | public | 1649282294395 | Tetra | My previous question ( https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch ) resolved N/A because Givewell has stopped aggregating overall effectivenesses for charities, instead "expect[ing] to focus [their] allocation decisions for these organizations on specific country-level funding gaps" ( https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2021#Change_19_Remove_overall_cost-effectiveness_estimates_for_AMF_Malaria_Consortium_Helen_Keller_International_Sightsavers_END_Fund_and_Deworm_the_World )
This will resolve to the intervention performed by the charity with the highest value of "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after all adjustments", in any of the regions in which it operates. Currently, this is Vitamin A Supplementation, due to Hellen Keller International's score of 57.6 in Niger.
Apr 6, 11:01pm: Correction: Currently, this is Deworming, due to Sightsavers' score of 62.1 in Niger State. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2031383888990979, "platformFee": 0.05078459722477448, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672539042356 | 520 | Tetraspace | 1672538446817 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0f79256b797", "prob": 0.13812844094651114, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.371731079509496, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.51766087120141, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282294654, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.879", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 13.41819140623251, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b52ab55baefa", "prob": 0.24311582759648848, "text": "Vitamin A Supplementation", "index": 1, "poolNo": 24.407808311700858, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.98799295308443, "textFts": "'supplement':3 'vitamin':1", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282317985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.877", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 43.06623231709224, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2a30765fdaa7", "prob": 0.07197658017691212, "text": "Long-Lasting Insecticide-Treated Net Distributions", "index": 2, "poolNo": 3.5508390655817856, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.782417069318406, "textFts": "'distribut':8 'insecticid':5 'insecticide-tr':4 'last':3 'long':2 'long-last':1 'net':7 'treat':6", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282338175, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.877", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 12.750137059910147, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "98538c0e9201", "prob": 0.018727023943465013, "text": "Unconditional Cash Transfers", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.3547982118164935, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.59098905729756, "textFts": "'cash':2 'transfer':3 'uncondit':1", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282349626, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.881", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5682775693894873, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "8e6b507811e6", "prob": 0.29439308028611855, "text": "Deworming", "index": 4, "poolNo": 26.078534000732812, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.50552502466027, "textFts": "'deworm':1", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282358341, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.88", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 40.37390815352483, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "428a5ca96517", "prob": 0.1673181072642101, "text": "Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention", "index": 5, "poolNo": 13.286130058559714, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 66.1202789416314, "textFts": "'chemoprevent':3 'malaria':2 'season':1", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282374980, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.88", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 29.639207572517215, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1de4b5a20bbe", "prob": 0.06634093978629448, "text": "Conditional Cash Transfers for Immunization ", "index": 6, "poolNo": 2.4252218045896123, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 34.131718938216146, "textFts": "'cash':2 'condit':1 'immun':5 'transfer':3", "contractId": "8uZu85nsV1IEmBPCLF7y", "createdTime": 1649282390134, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.879", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1672539042000, "totalLiquidity": 9.09818602783467, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132867851}] | ["medicine"] | 1671090396019 | 1672538444043 | {"8e6b507811e6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9854398158650468 | HYDQqk10INTJCYLVV0rM | {"NO": 2.495032720990115, "YES": 51.44844999025011} | 0 | i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for | 63.14278002175298 | I will work on project X today, for at least 2 hours | 1649367461181 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.252234060460937 | True | play | NO | public | 1649287483503 | Account deletion requested | Continuation of https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-7fe1b0ef3cf7
Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14425223704333917, "platformFee": 0.024042039507223195, "liquidityFee": 0.14425223704333917} | 0 | 1649367461181 | 50.10885028534856 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1649287483503 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.99 | 1649287551958 | 0.7664760614101048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
r2JrD4NoC06YqyFy9TMP | which-driver-will-qualify-on-pole-p | 70 | Which driver will qualify on pole position in 2022 F1 Saudi Australian Grand Prix? | 1649288442166 | 95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.151157559953747 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649288289435 | taeyeon | Resolves to the driver who qualifies in pole position in 2022 F1 Australian Grand Prix.
Close date updated to 2022-04-08 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649288442166 | 620 | taeyeon | 1649288289435 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "734fd44a6bd1", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.51766065161459, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.336954225550002, "textFts": "", "contractId": "r2JrD4NoC06YqyFy9TMP", "createdTime": 1649288289625, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:32.664", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649288442000, "totalLiquidity": 28.921282798833822, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "828ebc214d5b", "prob": 0.020612244897959184, "text": "Max Verstappen\n", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.17656840589388528, "userId": "95BT0t9CHcNHDdY1qM2HUZMuPwE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.38962158301738, "textFts": "'max':1 'verstappen':2", "contractId": 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"probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649288442000, "totalLiquidity": 1.6750242954324583, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112328}] | ["australia"] | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.00983474769994269 | dqKspAnXHTXLxq40OggV | {"NO": 119.89464138431143, "YES": 130.99999999999983} | 0 | will-former-duke-coach-mike-krzyzew | 11 | Will former Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski un-retire and return as Duke’s head coach before the start of the 2022-2023 season? | 1667275140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.566693096232896 | True | play | NO | public | 1649292779592 | David Glidden | See https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/dribble-handoff-will-mike-krzyzewski-change-his-mind-and-return-as-dukes-head-coach/ by David Cobb, Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, and Kyle Boone.
Will resolve YES if Coach K is the head coach for Duke’s men’s basketball team at the time of Duke’s first game of the 2022-2023 season, and NO if not.
This market’s end date will likely be updated to match the start of the first game of the season once Duke’s schedule is announced. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667362518993 | 120 | dglid | 1667274336143 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 1667274336049 | 0.009008530120892309 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | YcgNjv3DnJs2h1OiDprP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-eleutherai-release-an-image-ge | 0 | Will EleutherAI release an image generator with approximately the same or greater capabilities as DALLE-2 by the end of 2023? | 1649295146973 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649294685765 | DAL59 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649295146973 | 100 | DAL59 | 1649294685765 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29997054472575274 | APXO8uXLsEPKmWrhQGvS | {"NO": 102.41539369326371, "YES": 97.2074841565515} | 0.33 | how-many-new-covid19-cases-will-the | 16 | How many new COVID-19 cases will the CDC report for April 7th, 2022? (1% = 1000 cases) | 1649401140000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2817141768266573 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649303212371 | horse | Resolves according to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. Every thousand new cases will count as 1% for resolution, if it's over 100k it'll resolve to YES and if it's under 1k it'll resolve to NO. Market closes ahead of expected data release.
Sources of data for your prediction are appreciated. Meta-comments on the market are also welcome.
Apr 7, 9:07pm: Planning to resolve this on the 8th or 9th. Technically there could be retroactive edits to the data later than that, but I don't know what an appropriate amount of time to wait would be. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.41226672650447277, "platformFee": 0.06871112108407879, "liquidityFee": 0.41226672650447277} | 0 | 1649458142274 | 100.41226672650447 | horse | 1649303212371 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1649390909591 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Q7tR7UsIbY9eqVmWRLpq | who-or-what-is-the-monster-in-the-d | 183.9818879341671 | Who or what is the Monster In The Darkness (Order of the Stick)? | 1822449540000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649307366192 | DAL59 | Apr 7, 3:39pm: I am not an untrustworthy market creator, I resolved the candle question considering the beginning of the whiteout as the end of place. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0792755173666842, "platformFee": 0.01981887934167105, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 440.00000000000006 | DAL59 | 1649307366192 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2cb3b4277177", "prob": 0.31555249485520825, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.361531612183025, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.48889542909433, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q7tR7UsIbY9eqVmWRLpq", "createdTime": 1649307366450, 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"Q7tR7UsIbY9eqVmWRLpq", "createdTime": 1649360551133, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-13T19:53:18.711", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 8.33834352921995, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 34 | 5 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736796641}, {"name": "Order of the Stick", "slug": "order-of-the-stick", "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "groupId": "hzBzHohQVJ20DmeoASru", "createdTime": 1684291526595}] | ["ancient-markets", "order-of-the-stick"] | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8798405502646811 | cFyb7ts6NpOhdS0Ghr1u | {"NO": 34.385389544437416, "YES": 52.975442156348386} | 1 | will-i-work-on-project-tomorrow-for | 3 | Will I work on project Λ tomorrow for 2 hours | 1649361540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.401264427769599 | True | play | YES | public | 1649327800684 | Undox | Project Lambda is a side project, programming, keen to work on it but lots of potentially distracting things could happen. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14734706190965105, "platformFee": 0.024557843651608506, "liquidityFee": 0.14734706190965105} | 0 | 1649386854250 | 50.14734706190965 | Undox | 1649327800684 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.8261702351285782 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5869366124719005 | Z5JYauy3Yd78tJXJ128r | {"NO": 347.11281106625864, "YES": 54.71706931763635} | 1 | am-i-a-reputable-market-creator | 2762.0486516521355 | Am I a reputable market creator? | 1649995140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9477011283840553 | True | play | YES | public | 1649328649440 | David Glidden | This market is my attempt at procuring from the Manifold community a reputation score/rating for myself as a market creator. How it works:
* I commit to resolving this market YES.
* I’m opening this market at 50% to ensure at least some trading and to suggest that I find the answer to this question valuable enough to lose M$ myself.
* If my reputation is good enough that most believe me (and believe I am not prone to making a mistake when resolving this market), this market should quickly push toward 100% as traders stake their profit on my reputation.
* The final value that this market ends on upon close tells me my reputation rating/score; 100% = perfectly reputable.
* To further gauge my reputation, I encourage a third party to create a separate market asking when I’ll resolve this market, perhaps within X time that would be considered reputable, as a scalar market, or as a free response market with bins of different timeframes.
Apr 15, 6:46am: closes at 90%; looks like the derivative market was significant enough volume to distort this one. Resolving YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.57579531764024, "platformFee": 1.7626325529400395, "liquidityFee": 10.57579531764024} | 0 | 1650019774771 | 110.55776354267178 | dglid | 1649328649440 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649464715574 | 0.9001407893754302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5890578301994291 | Ps40HKHChKYj60mZjfWb | {"NO": 409.60669996172584, "YES": 26.027952817753388} | 1 | am-i-awesome | 1227.882870797689 | Am I awesome? | 1649995140000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.209164995690822 | True | play | YES | public | 1649339171285 | Martin Randall | This market is similar to https://manifold.markets/dglid/am-i-a-reputable-market-creator but is more awesome.
This market is my attempt at procuring from the Manifold community a reputation score/rating for myself as being awesome. How it works:
* I commit to resolving this market YES.
* ???
* PROFIT! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.61997058134666, "platformFee": 1.1033284302244435, "liquidityFee": 6.61997058134666} | 0 | 1650022633432 | 54.198459840664874 | MartinRandall | 1649339171285 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649777643628 | 0.9575519185359382 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49608762971159326 | IizWmXRa1stSy7hXbm6w | {"NO": 53.265721469532515, "YES": 211.62094082088203} | 0 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-90aa5e2280aa | 155 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $1,080 on April 7, 2022? | 1649358000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8984029060230476 | True | play | NO | public | 1649340035423 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8042767547641554, "platformFee": 0.4673794591273593, "liquidityFee": 2.8042767547641554} | 0 | 1649361675900 | 102.80427675476415 | Predictor | 1649340035423 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424773}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 0.19858631063835078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW | what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for | 135 | What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Long Form for the Hugos this year? | 1660460400000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.929203758568994 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649348648666 | Ozy Brennan | My current rankings:
1. Space Sweepers
2. Encanto
3. The Green Knight
4. Dune
5. No Award
6. WandaVision
7. Shang-Chi
Close date updated to 2022-08-14 12:00 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705149244629 | 360 | ozymandias272 | 1705149244816 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7e07a41a8609", "prob": 0.5486968449931413, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.78606703016557, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.83654013231118, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649348648926, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.674", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 40.617283950617285, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9953cf3605ef", "prob": 0.056241426611796985, "text": "Dune", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.235653054527559, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.734861012560017, "textFts": "'dune':1", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350349748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.661", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 5.061728395061729, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "db613a786a45", "prob": 0.05898491083676269, "text": "The Green Knight", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.3290937220825592, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.203681240665944, "textFts": "'green':2 'knight':3", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350356807, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.671", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 5.308641975308642, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "7ce37e7da354", "prob": 0.061728395061728385, "text": "Encanto", "index": 3, "poolNo": 1.4249699334516024, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.659542988464363, "textFts": "'encanto':1", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350362489, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.674", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 5.5555555555555545, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "b086862e0923", "prob": 0.15138545953360769, "text": "Space Sweepers", "index": 4, "poolNo": 5.754578519355654, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 32.25817737598933, "textFts": "'space':1 'sweeper':2", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350367926, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.662", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 13.624691358024691, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d47fa6303470", "prob": 0.053552812071330586, "text": "No Award", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1.1464833126705256, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.261978135506045, "textFts": "'award':2", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350638520, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.673", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 4.819753086419753, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1d1c5af3ca91", "prob": 0.04131687242798354, "text": "WandaVision", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.7719623619326937, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.911987234645448, "textFts": "'wandavis':1", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350648186, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.666", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 3.718518518518519, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "9ed4beaf6e4d", "prob": 0.02809327846364884, "text": "Shang-Chi", "index": 7, "poolNo": 0.4298667486784652, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.871542420589165, "textFts": "'chi':3 'shang':2 'shang-chi':1", "contractId": "i02CWVLJMBqVVZMATCsW", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350661202, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:29.674", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149244000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5283950617283955, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 2 | 1705149240461 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | n2hjPoDmsZqtn2cYstVq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-064492c6addb | 0 | What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form for the Hugos this year? | 1649348898237 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649348790451 | Ozy Brennan | Nominees are:
The Wheel of Time: The Flame of Tar Valon
For All Mankind: The Grey
Arcane: The Monster You Created
Loki: The Nexus Event
Star Trek: Lower Decks: wej Duj
The Expanse: Nemesis Games
I have not watched any of these TV shows and will be ranking the episodes as standalone artistic endeavors Because the Expanse is difficult to assess the quality of off a random episode, I will ask a friend who watches the Expanse to rate how good Nemesis Games was. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649348898237 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1649348790451 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ssVNElttaRRAxP52IvLG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-will-i-rank-in-first-place-for | 0 | What will I rank in first place for the Lodestar Award this year? | 1649348860441 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649348840984 | Ozy Brennan | Nominees are:
Chaos on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer (Tor Teen)
Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao (Penguin Teen / Rock the Boat)
The Last Graduate, by Naomi Novik (Del Rey Books)
Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko (Amulet Books / Hot Key Books)
A Snake Falls to Earth, by Darcie Little Badger (Levine Querido)
Victories Greater Than Death, by Charlie Jane Anders (Tor Teen / Titan)
I have already read and greatly enjoyed The Last Graduate. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649348860441 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1649348840984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP | what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-fb3ead6105f3 | 130 | What will I put in first place for Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form for the Hugos this year? | 1660460400000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.939478067851447 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649348950197 | Ozy Brennan | Nominees are:
The Wheel of Time: The Flame of Tar Valon
For All Mankind: The Grey
Arcane: The Monster You Created
Loki: The Nexus Event
Star Trek: Lower Decks: wej Duj
The Expanse: Nemesis Games
I have not watched any of these TV shows and will be ranking the episodes as standalone artistic endeavors Because the Expanse is difficult to assess the quality of off a random episode, I will ask a friend who watches the Expanse to rate how good Nemesis Games was
Apr 25, 4:50pm: I'm really enjoying Arcane! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705149254860 | 359.99999999999994 | ozymandias272 | 1705149255106 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2b16ae563787", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.74728847662122, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.94562904886864, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649348950383, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 39.661876584953504, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d0a7cb7fd18c", "prob": 0.04828402366863906, "text": "The Wheel of Time: The Flame of Tar Valon", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.0564826614636051, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.82410187129978, "textFts": "'flame':6 'tar':8 'time':4 'valon':9 'wheel':2", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350543073, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 4.690448013524938, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "72aa1512361b", "prob": 0.050177514792899405, "text": "For All Mankind: The Grey", "index": 2, "poolNo": 1.1203491033944228, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.2073629807633, "textFts": "'grey':5 'mankind':3", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350548975, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 4.874387151310228, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "79ab1bb74d29", "prob": 0.18680473372781062, "text": "Arcane: The Monster You Created", "index": 3, "poolNo": 12.278847003097821, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.45207296913951, "textFts": "'arcan':1 'creat':5 'monster':3", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350555086, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 25.618934911242597, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d4ebffbfd5e9", "prob": 0.03994082840236687, "text": "Loki: The Nexus Event", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.7913843808915298, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.022535674022325, "textFts": "'event':4 'loki':1 'nexus':3", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350560375, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 3.8799661876584954, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "856d4a505bf1", "prob": 0.041005917159763317, "text": "Star Trek: Lower Decks: wej Duj", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.8237068999120793, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.263806243686965, "textFts": "'deck':4 'duj':6 'lower':3 'star':1 'trek':2 'wej':5", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350569877, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 3.983431952662722, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e5c7fb6882cc", "prob": 0.042071005917159766, "text": "The Expanse: Nemesis Games", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.8564826260786362, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.501543225860818, "textFts": "'expans':2 'game':4 'nemesi':3", "contractId": "Sz77XpzElVL3ye9nV3wP", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350575187, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.886", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149254000, "totalLiquidity": 4.0868977176669485, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | 1705149250590 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg | what-will-i-put-in-first-place-for-752a340549c7 | 130 | What will I put in first place for the Lodestar Award for Best YA this year? | 1660546740000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.939478067851447 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649349033227 | Ozy Brennan | Nominees are:
Chaos on CatNet, by Naomi Kritzer (Tor Teen)
Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao (Penguin Teen / Rock the Boat)
The Last Graduate, by Naomi Novik (Del Rey Books)
Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko (Amulet Books / Hot Key Books)
A Snake Falls to Earth, by Darcie Little Badger (Levine Querido)
Victories Greater Than Death, by Charlie Jane Anders (Tor Teen / Titan)
I have already read and greatly enjoyed The Last Graduate. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705149264341 | 379.99999999999994 | ozymandias272 | 1705149264582 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8b823bcf6e02", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.74728847662122, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.94562904886864, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649349033401, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 39.661876584953504, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "95a21b8e24e0", "prob": 0.19674556213017746, "text": "The Last Graduate", "index": 1, "poolNo": 13.353774670425679, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.51954621083568, "textFts": "'graduat':3 'last':2", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350431425, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.886", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 26.98224852071005, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "23de807bfd5e", "prob": 0.10171597633136095, "text": "Chaos on CatNet", "index": 2, "poolNo": 4.694075962088682, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 41.454780209696494, "textFts": "'catnet':3 'chao':1", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350450276, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.886", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 13.949619611158074, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "2a72bf381cff", "prob": 0.02674556213017752, "text": "Iron Widow", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.43070039656576364, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.672920625472743, "textFts": "'iron':1 'widow':2", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350455338, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.887", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 2.5981403212172447, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "29138a98aa68", "prob": 0.0272189349112426, "text": "Redemptor", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.44229294193515567, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.807165142204264, "textFts": "'redemptor':1", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350461377, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.604", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6441251056635666, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4020b5a4718e", "prob": 0.027692307692307697, "text": "A Snake Falls to Earth", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.453991513428611, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.940146471493453, "textFts": "'earth':5 'fall':3 'snake':2", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350469212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.603", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6901098901098903, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "d362c374a391", "prob": 0.028165680473372777, "text": "Victories Greater Than Death", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.4657953288568002, "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.071895968790102, "textFts": "'death':4 'greater':2 'victori':1", "contractId": "Q9rmiZThjkd82fE0OSvg", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1649350475286, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:30.606", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1705149264000, "totalLiquidity": 2.7360946745562127, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658705040105}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659013941640}] | ["books", "recommendations"] | 1658705075709 | 1705149259608 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5673296717926245 | KfWLr1ZkQXAplDHWJJBq | {"NO": 32.201941508223086, "YES": 399.43407439865837} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-me-to-select-a | 1068.0238019352385 | Will Manifold allow me to select a target probability when buying shares in a market by 5/15? | 1652684340000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.005778899828627 | True | play | NO | public | 1649350664798 | Mike Blume | This is not any sort of automated training system, just an addition to the existing widget for buying shares in a market. Right now, I can enter a number of shares, and I can see immediately what probability this purchase would move the market to. I'd like to be able to enter a "target" probability and have the number of shares that would move the market to this probability populate in the quantity field. This wouldn't commit me to buying that many shares if it was more than I wanted to invest! Just save me the trouble of triangulating a quantity if I have a "correct" probability in mind.
Apr 7, 9:57am: "automated *trading* system", woops | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.442666069661577, "platformFee": 2.5737776782769304, "liquidityFee": 15.442666069661577} | 0 | 1652730934312 | 113.43200469998463 | MichaelBlume | 1652491412997 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1652491411727 | 1652040024296 | 0.09560358214690562 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04427448454960688 | DvWHZWpKG9CM1kF7zTcp | {"NO": 925.1735966580261, "YES": 1799.3620088371365} | 0.02326493249699855 | p-np | 6403.536327569973 | P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027) | 1807765140000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 1.9515274528247587e-15 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1649351848782 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this statement be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (For P != NP) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 14, 4:41pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "P = NP", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.734723475976807e-17, "week": 1.734723475976807e-17, "month": 1.734723475976807e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.2130240807103965, "platformFee": 1.2021706801183993, "liquidityFee": 7.2130240807103965} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1705437617521 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1 | 36 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672903}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1662611168231}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525380}, {"name": "Computational Complexity Theory", "slug": "computational-complexity-theory", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rkDU85UpYnk6QG5tiE8U", "createdTime": 1668753512369}] | ["science-default", "mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"] | 0.12099692680608679 | 0.5 | 1705437617382 | 1678830440539 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45 | 8PmnzwzuirNYqNGB464O | {"NO": 150, "YES": 150} | 0.45 | will-the-united-states-end-title-42 | 0 | Will the United States end Title 42 by May 30 2022 | 1649398961758 | klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.063941914206022 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649352461672 | Scott Owens | This market resolves dependent on the status of Title 42 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649398961758 | 150 | ScottOwens | 1649352461672 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09543353007621616 | qPBliCK2V0FQg6bQPxK8 | {"NO": 895.2560970701794, "YES": 1847.7582860045454} | 0.048630832535642404 | p-np-537cbc88aa90 | 4256.717661475738 | P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027) | 1807765140000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 10.320130213099803 | False | basic | public | 1649352946158 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (for P = NP) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 14, 4:41pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "P != NP", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.381281646488606, "platformFee": 1.8594379130571048, "liquidityFee": 10.161367022016707} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1714988873676 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 51 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1663039672900}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1662611168230}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534638}, {"name": "Computational Complexity Theory", "slug": "computational-complexity-theory", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rkDU85UpYnk6QG5tiE8U", "createdTime": 1668753512369}] | ["science-default", "mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "computational-complexity-theory"] | 0.11767197511276957 | 0.5 | 1714988870433 | 1692003033325 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY | who-will-win-first-place-in-the-fir | 808.2267649003197 | Who will win first place in the first round of the French presidential election? | 1649632223076 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.681521880570528 | True | play | e24fa3861b7f | public | 1649353835697 | Enopoletus Harding | Only answers I make will be chosen. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.639999999999997, "platformFee": 1.1599999999999993, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649632223076 | 660 | EnopoletusHarding | 1649353835697 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "908317eab424", "prob": 0.004720063585385809, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03900590827563287, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.224846383121964, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353835964, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.549", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649632223000, "totalLiquidity": 0.5664076302462971, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "e24fa3861b7f", "prob": 0.9325328167645758, "text": "Macron", "index": 1, "poolNo": 140.2562388738409, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.147303341928154, "textFts": "'macron':1", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353848875, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.549", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649632223000, "totalLiquidity": 37.72562261183769, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4deb187e4f2a", "prob": 0.052279628021229256, "text": "Le Pen", "index": 2, "poolNo": 3.9292404244548487, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 71.22891530800939, "textFts": "'le':1 'pen':2", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353868410, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.549", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649632223000, "totalLiquidity": 16.72948096679336, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "4a0debcb520f", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Melenchon", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "'melenchon':1", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353885467, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649632223000, "totalLiquidity": 0.012, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "52f18aaa2ef5", "prob": 0.010367491628809327, "text": "Melenchon", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.21222842898690894, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.258338279469907, "textFts": "'melenchon':1", "contractId": "vVoaKnvNgg2xWQHbVNAY", "createdTime": 1649353983834, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:51.553", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649632223000, "totalLiquidity": 2.0734983257618653, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1649622494810 | {"e24fa3861b7f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3231895909394457 | YyFEDk7MBEhIGGn3zwhb | {"NO": 254.54372504829936, "YES": 14.931992066406567} | 1 | private-market-will-doubleslit-repl | 269 | Private market: Will double-slit replicate? | 1650005940000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.040648717004408 | True | play | YES | public | 1649357776442 | Daniel Reeves | If you don't know what that means, this market is not for you!
Apr 8, 12:43pm: It occurs to me I should've been clearer that I don't mean the literal double-slit experiment from physics. It's just an obscure codename! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.220622482852387, "platformFee": 0.3701037471420647, "liquidityFee": 2.220622482852387} | 0 | 1650302672668 | 102.2206224828524 | dreev | 1649357776442 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.890593182340295 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6861393682131518 | Go6RGU3X4fEJ12Hq1njM | {"NO": 256.1024442927561, "YES": 73.70362932994244} | 1 | will-the-invoice-metadata-processor | 546.8046174354745 | Will the "Invoice Metadata Processor" Successfully run this time | 1649372400000 | v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.211890945841429 | True | play | YES | public | 1649361466041 | peeps | My company has been working on a background processor for a few months and it runs into issues every time it runs. Most recently, we ran into a memory issue and found that our node.js runtime only had 1gb of memory when we thought it would have 4gb. We're running it again now after increasing our production memory limits. It takes about 3 hours to run. Will it succeed this time? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.610983763608003, "platformFee": 0.6018306272680005, "liquidityFee": 3.610983763608003} | 0 | 1649377333858 | 101.99149498414711 | peeps | 1649361466041 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.8836704639304684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5017586427042311 | MnihdkEwEPGoipFtSggB | {"NO": 67.68100345781038, "YES": 41.51235542369803} | 1 | if-i-order-mint-chocolate-huel-this | 63.561401741630746 | If I order Mint Chocolate Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1668978986888 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.269605361115998 | True | play | YES | public | 1649363250548 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana.
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4800293212119147, "platformFee": 0.2466715535353191, "liquidityFee": 1.4800293212119147} | 0 | 1668978986888 | 51.480029321211916 | Tetraspace | 1675390658973 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0.5 | 1667245259599 | 1675390657112 | 0.6214833448983351 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3381893509553886 | ZVfI3pXc4gLdh7GXwtNv | {"NO": 45.38497057815374, "YES": 414.85591706838846} | 0.05294398345719189 | will-levy-rozman-gothamchess-become | 2128.8928984039517 | Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024? | 1733115540000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649364450011 | DAL59 | Apr 7, 6:04pm: GM means chess GM, not any other definition of GM | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011843742527048236} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.701955854082348, "platformFee": 0.48720069652043363, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246} | 0 | 120.49180327868852 | DAL59 | 1718189754794 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.5 | 1718189751120 | 1657676393953 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02592778211773182 | H8ttYol0k1b9Qa9LgTSR | {"NO": 108.1386505968283, "YES": 212.04881926095592} | 0 | will-my-house-burn-down-this-year | 103.92162480563566 | Will my house burn down this year? | 1673683200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.989504303360574 | True | play | NO | public | 1649364475277 | Isaac King | I live in Barriere, British Columbia. There are wildfires near here every year; last year was particularly bad. Resolves to yes if my house is significantly damaged by a fire this year. (Doesn't need to completely burn to the ground.)
Apr 7, 4:44pm: Hmm, now someone stands to profit by burning down my house. Guess I should put a "resolves to N/A if it's suspected to be arson" disclaimer in here. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2049337921844577, "platformFee": 0.034155632030742955, "liquidityFee": 0.2049337921844577} | 0 | 1673775443294 | 110.20281085435886 | IsaacKing | 1673775440701 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.04 | 1673439104611 | 1673775437116 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6271689087379845 | wd9giVEambpkA0Q9FYGg | {"NO": 1000.5344048897078, "YES": 946.73177247449} | 0.64 | will-elizabeth-holmes-be-in-jail-on | 676.0758788081689 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be in jail on Jan 1 2027? | 1798858800000 | v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.684445288105088 | False | basic | public | 1649367376569 | peeps | If Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of Theranos convicted of Wire Fraud in 2022, is in jail on Jan 1, 2027, this will resolve to YES. | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7199940324095095, "platformFee": 0.007424632536559798, "liquidityFee": 0.04454779521935878} | 0 | 1000 | peeps | 1686025027254 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 0.25 | 1686025027135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL | what-was-the-most-famous-prediction | 75 | What was the most famous prediction for year 2020? | 1652641140000 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.123293619158119 | True | play | 37af5c5ee089 | public | 1649368703573 | JuJumper | Resolution criteria suggestions are appreciated.
Apr 11, 11:21am: I will just resolve this to the most popular answer, I guess | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0799999999999996, "platformFee": 0.5199999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652647197879 | 320 | JuJumper | 1652512250747 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "428b914b1a18", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.653247439994765, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.56655929999346, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL", "createdTime": 1649368703774, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.244", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652647197000, "totalLiquidity": 62.22222222222222, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "37af5c5ee089", "prob": 0.5178666666666667, "text": "Honourary's \"The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female\" market", "index": 1, "poolNo": 109.9297496565673, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.34448371733967, "textFts": "'administr':5 'astral':7 'codex':8 'femal':12 'honourari':1 'identifi':10 'market':13 'replac':4 'ten':9", "contractId": "hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL", "createdTime": 1649430397348, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.238", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652647197000, "totalLiquidity": 106.06933333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6d3036302983", "prob": 0.018666666666666665, "text": "Kurzweil, 1999: human life expectancy of 100+ years ", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.3604291591200154, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.94827579373795, "textFts": "'100':7 '1999':2 'expect':5 'human':3 'kurzweil':1 'life':4 'year':8", "contractId": "hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL", "createdTime": 1649498279913, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.244", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652647197000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6133333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "761bca59091a", "prob": 0.019022222222222225, "text": "Brennan, 1968: antigravity belts", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.3708432063277564, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.12441880856598, "textFts": "'1968':2 'antigrav':3 'belt':4 'brennan':1", "contractId": "hlrN95V4MBAwbXBTCFNL", "createdTime": 1649621633686, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:27.244", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1652647197000, "totalLiquidity": 2.6631111111111117, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 1 | 1652512249112 | 1649498210808 | {"37af5c5ee089": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9590341745166624 | QMIn5ZbfFY7iS8nTUdXB | {"NO": 0.3349334337749298, "YES": 41.41081153785677} | 0 | i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for-51e8fb5a0531 | 101.98180803159411 | I will work on project X today, for at least 2 hours, before 11:00 | 1649973540000 | T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575044658380058 | True | play | NO | public | 1649368879741 | Account deletion requested | https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for continuation | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22372094923681923, "platformFee": 0.037286824872803215, "liquidityFee": 0.22372094923681923} | 0 | 1652209108671 | 50.22271315436316 | Accountdeletionrequested | 1649368879741 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1649377170570 | 0.1592020874314989 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE | how-many-years-until-dalle-2-is-rep | 460.0174189136071 | How many years until Dall-E 2 is reproduced by someone else and made open source and generally available? | 1661222836810 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.730062051147938 | True | play | 4531ad0c5342 | public | 1649370983233 | Lars Doucet | This is Dall-E 2:
https://openai.com/dall-e-2/
It's an impressive generative art AI that can generate cool images from a text prompt. Right now it is closed down by OpenAI and if GPT-3 is any indicator will remain so for some time, at best being available as a commercial SaaS solution.
So this market is for you to place a bet on how many years before someone else reproduces something that is generally regarded as being at least 80% as good as what is being showcased today, but is open source and generally available for anyone to use.
Apr 7, 5:36pm:
#Computers #AI #OpenAI #Art
Close date updated to 2027-04-14 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.199303243455718, "platformFee": 2.5498258108639296, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661222836810 | 740 | LarsDoucet | 1667655779476 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4d9eb71c6f83", "prob": 0.05949345483197802, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3466830147318123, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.289134967853453, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649370983417, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.08", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1661222836000, "totalLiquidity": 5.354410934878022, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "a32a9513df67", "prob": 0.09774606140015413, "text": "1 year", "index": 1, "poolNo": 10.616917604374592, "userId": 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0.02097144282827225, "text": "3 years", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.5217875441813845, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.359072988597344, "textFts": "'3':1 'year':2", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649371009043, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.093", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1661222836000, "totalLiquidity": 3.5651452808062825, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "06f297c6d336", "prob": 0.00982831873824277, "text": "4 years", "index": 4, "poolNo": 0.12729371176570384, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.824434366648553, "textFts": "'4':1 'year':2", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649371013580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.08", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1661222836000, "totalLiquidity": 1.27768143597156, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "1eae82179106", "prob": 0.007287948216917308, "text": "5 years", "index": 5, "poolNo": 0.056200318850759316, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7.655204479594858, "textFts": "'5':1 'year':2", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649371019342, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:32:57.085", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1661222836000, "totalLiquidity": 0.6559153395225576, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ddb6ef8bd5ec", "prob": 0.01079211270652081, "text": "Will never happen", "index": 6, "poolNo": 0.14654104201691345, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.431990428319793, "textFts": "'happen':3 'never':2", "contractId": "gbGAMC9x8QMfFAFg2znE", "createdTime": 1649371034479, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, 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1661219006496 | 1667655777751 | {"4531ad0c5342": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1909201357705068 | S56RNlwQSo6nF4mbxhDb | {"NO": 115.58801352945615, "YES": 2263.7648524572005} | 0 | will-nintendo-announce-a-new-consol | 2658.1777235805944 | Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2022? | 1672488701292 | Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3183361125916484 | True | play | NO | public | 1649372053326 | Pacc | This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.07351975617713, "platformFee": 0.5266581901674265, "liquidityFee": 3.159949141004559} | 0 | 1672488701292 | 243.15994914100455 | pakoito | 1672489488475 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459496}] | ["nintendo"] | 0.5 | 1672125517996 | 1672489484892 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19852200142940604 | 7YcWmQU9ZWWkFuApTewJ | {"NO": 28.971404239504626, "YES": 510.6189660855699} | 0 | will-wizards-of-the-coast-split-fro | 461.28115561179936 | Will Wizards of the Coast split from Hasbro during FY22? | 1664665140000 | Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.74514420552447 | True | play | NO | public | 1649372752810 | Pacc | This market resolves to YES if Wizards of the Coast remains a subsidiary of Hasbro by the end of FY22.
Close date updated to 2022-10-01 11:59 pm
Apr 8, 12:50am: This market resolves to NO if Wizards of the Coast remains a subsidiary of Hasbro by the end of FY22.
The title is the correct one. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5992698157844264, "platformFee": 0.09987830263073774, "liquidityFee": 0.5992698157844264} | 0 | 1664671839843 | 50.599269815784425 | pakoito | 1664632551544 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.2 | 1664632551364 | 1649375356122 | 0.013858898186764935 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44933478873111315 | 6aaRuDI45DbzRw3zmDz9 | {"NO": 28.8257388777232, "YES": 474.6959835152455} | 0 | will-meta-stock-see-historical-maxi | 478.976900211961 | Will Meta stock see historical maximums during 2022? | 1672508159828 | Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6791745091649384 | True | play | NO | public | 1649373015794 | Pacc | This market resolves to YES if Meta stock surpasses $382.18 in the day the Market closes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.215864156914634, "platformFee": 0.12480724953904364, "liquidityFee": 0.7488434972342617} | 0 | 1672508159828 | 100.74884349723426 | pakoito | 1667245205375 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0.45 | 1667245205110 | 1654231578980 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.520114030344139 | 5xHk0cGiRA0WtrOptX5l | {"NO": 216.00703504041275, "YES": 53.50590728197726} | 0 | in-everything-could-stay-the-same-o | 557 | In " everything could stay the same or we could change it all", will at least one doctor or nurse know for sure that Tadesse is also an alien wizard by April 15? | 1649995140000 | 9m93tV1LfzOxrKmT6EySaE1foTi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9277255733368532 | True | play | NO | public | 1649374554539 | Manya | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.668339712757323, "platformFee": 0.4447232854595539, "liquidityFee": 2.668339712757323} | 0 | 1650041776677 | 102.6683397127573 | Manya | 1649374554539 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhxH957rtCro1HPsUM-O099u1Z7k3wee2_0J9LHmQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1670517791590}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.5 | 1649886338950 | 0.8139704417655435 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | dQ7hq4riPQtM7OWModk1 | {"NO": 5.2597027112740875, "YES": 475.3120351538663} | 0 | will-mathlib-be-ported-to-lean-4-by | 600.3468202305814 | Will mathlib be ported to Lean 4 by the end of September? | 1664600340000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.374594416351725 | True | play | NO | public | 1649378431791 | Bolton Bailey | The mathlib community intends to port its codebase from Lean 3 to Lean 4 in the coming months. This resolves to YES if, by the end of September, there is a main mathlib repository in Lean 4 which contains successfully ported code corresponding to all the Lean 3 code currently in the repository. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.030927835051547, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664604452573 | 50 | BoltonBailey | 1664594725444 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1667164635544}] | ["the-lean-theorem-prover"] | 0.5 | 1664594725201 | 0.010944677551450368 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7234165860904479 | mcnjRnjZ3sUWcx7SE8aj | {"NO": 9.16409173285091, "YES": 118.94967774608648} | 0 | the-sri-lankan-rupee-versus-the-usd | 134.3809670854864 | The Sri Lankan Rupee versus the USD will hit 400-to-1 by May. | 1650610740000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.630797304813007 | True | play | NO | public | 1649378473358 | John Smith | With the collapse of the Sri Lankan government, the value of the Sri Lankan rupee is plummeting. For more, see here: https://www.ft.com/content/b6c91edf-d8b3-42d6-8eef-c42f2f2544b3 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4540128925602707, "platformFee": 0.40900214876004515, "liquidityFee": 2.4540128925602707} | 0 | 1650637428362 | 51.651098901637404 | JohnSmith | 1649378473358 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1686160735655}] | ["asia"] | 0.75 | 0.1677113513781149 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7490933370962453 | w8ZhCQwkcVqbXAWsjYhN | {"NO": 11.619259006006743, "YES": 255.59668434694063} | 0.11950203802311793 | will-a-city-get-nuked-this-week-amp | 329.69367880637793 | Will a city get nuked this week (amplified odds, see description) | 1650031140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3362369307784485 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649380183939 | Undox | Yes another silly nuke market
Yes if nuke before close. City definition: Pop > 10000 affected (not necessarily dead,
could be disease etc)
No if no nuke and first ethereum mainnet block of the hour after closing ends with 000 (4095-1 odds)
NA otherwise
Close wont change
Freaking grim! Be ashamed if you bet.
Apr 16, 1:04pm: https://etherscan.io/block/14590368 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.670459315902553, "platformFee": 0.9450765526504253, "liquidityFee": 5.670459315902553} | 0 | 1650078802316 | 103.20381187632495 | Undox | 1649380183939 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701348545}] | ["amplified-odds"] | 0.8 | 1649985853100 | 0.11950203802311793 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5968869559577659 | kPBP6IAwNThELLvY8cIa | {"NO": 1799.359853766365, "YES": 176.88733853686946} | 0.9377417732249909 | will-at-least-100000-russian-soldie | 1624.5502710459568 | Will at least 100,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 1.219704658015474e-15 | 1.1481908032757502 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649381725140 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10557/100k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711993822838 | 820.0017964070748 | MetaculusBot | 1704085140000 | 0.2 | 20 | 0 | 19 | 3 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371020}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224123}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129169809}, {"name": "Resolution Pending", "slug": "resolution-pending", "groupId": "b06b1c0c-628c-4fdb-82b3-d25f6d6f9bfc", "createdTime": 1705158264301}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"] | 0.10643869439138222 | 0.03 | 1703437167131 | 1711993820692 | False | 0.94 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6642687238037348 | YgHyllqXdVoze6we5Zjb | {"NO": 5674.739695966981, "YES": 125.92736380178603} | 0.9889088033261231 | will-at-least-50000-ukrainian-soldi | 5924.939765807334 | Will at least 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 2.439409316030948e-15 | 1.6817612191808782 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649381785207 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10551/ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711993802054 | 780.9645427752258 | MetaculusBot | 1704085140000 | 0.2 | 22 | 0 | 19 | 3 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370718}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223962}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130500567}, {"name": "Resolution Pending", "slug": "resolution-pending", "groupId": "b06b1c0c-628c-4fdb-82b3-d25f6d6f9bfc", "createdTime": 1705158247375}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"] | 0.11248269917223308 | 0.17 | 1703641443331 | 1711993798219 | False | 0.99 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01999517786074523 | 1Hz59sEGisicDCHJSFBF | {"NO": 494.34336590525817, "YES": 924.9520906705679} | 0 | will-odessa-be-under-russian-contro | 425 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.31831828294519 | True | play | NO | public | 1649381850568 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10493/odessa-under-russian-control-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2874559765937612, "platformFee": 0.04790932943229353, "liquidityFee": 0.2874559765937612} | 0 | 1654218948872 | 500.2874559765938 | MetaculusBot | 1649381850568 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372191}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223677}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.02 | False | 0.010786893545258368 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.020012220193761598 | EPsaVI6wZ5jYNyyvzGCf | {"NO": 502.16906282659727, "YES": 470.439359657935} | 0 | will-dnipro-be-under-russian-contro | 238 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.271201079882118 | True | play | NO | public | 1649381931913 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10495/dnipro-under-russian-control-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7569379694208783, "platformFee": 0.12615632823681305, "liquidityFee": 0.7569379694208783} | 0 | 1654218896774 | 500.7569379694209 | MetaculusBot | 1649381931913 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372202}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223836}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.02 | False | 0.02133318878829151 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6000143580293578 | dYYQTB7jotWMTBmp0vBe | {"NO": 511.50454404643614, "YES": 494.0661200417809} | 1 | will-at-least-25000-ukrainian-soldi | 50.02334104627661 | Will at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1671580109006 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7584224608666532 | True | play | YES | public | 1649381991129 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10553/25k-ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8757556968292312, "platformFee": 0.08072815790842075, "liquidityFee": 0.4843689474505245} | 0 | 1671580109006 | 500.48436894745055 | MetaculusBot | 1667245316222 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372223}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224055}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.6 | 1667245316092 | False | 0.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26116135835581034 | IIwM69PHGCgZk06oyAXB | {"NO": 1290.4411708196712, "YES": 554.2243979406734} | 0.4514605204975512 | will-at-least-100000-ukrainian-sold | 2616.4682652528036 | Will at least 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0.14812013922084666 | 0.49473708442163167 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1649382038883 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10554/100k-ukranian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711993760474 | 1160.6277982016136 | MetaculusBot | 1712001470913 | 1.3 | 41 | 0 | 19 | 4 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371400}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223898}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129690397}, {"name": "Resolution Pending", "slug": "resolution-pending", "groupId": "b06b1c0c-628c-4fdb-82b3-d25f6d6f9bfc", "createdTime": 1705158227345}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"] | 0.12216592261330886 | 0.03 | 1704055051833 | 1712001470261 | False | 0.45 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.731890538674811 | mg9ZfHDza1h1r5Fm4CRS | {"NO": 8935.119726169325, "YES": 214.1157515542243} | 1 | will-at-least-50000-russian-soldier | 14525.276688278731 | Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1691666172582 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.444640719377408 | True | play | YES | public | 1649382099639 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10556/50k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.593939794156485, "platformFee": 0.3210439924855249, "liquidityFee": 1.9262639549131493} | 0 | 1691666172582 | 861.9262639549131 | MetaculusBot | 1691649201882 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662050680100}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662050675865}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662050686006}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371640}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222720}] | ["ukraine", "russia", "wars", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.1263817261056937 | 0.3 | 1691649174917 | 1691649199440 | False | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.039997319217392656 | XUiKwwTrKO6gRAuKEdvr | {"NO": 496.60051212343024, "YES": 600.9663447212894} | 0 | will-sumy-be-under-russian-control | 101 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.747186928821661 | True | play | NO | public | 1649382137356 | Metaculus Bot | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10494/sumy-under-russian-control-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2019316722633059, "platformFee": 0.03365527871055098, "liquidityFee": 0.2019316722633059} | 0 | 1654218918926 | 500.2019316722633 | MetaculusBot | 1652623087285 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372317}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223968}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.04 | 1652623086906 | False | 0.03328243257252795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7868884285778202 | vkqlYM1StUF4zsOqCDq9 | {"NO": 1436.0363519693747, "YES": 402.6731983501136} | 1 | will-at-least-25000-russian-soldier | 1913.693209238379 | Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 1671580144432 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1263897759743715 | True | play | YES | public | 1649382188872 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10555/25k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.471404808902907, "platformFee": 0.8253486901554052, "liquidityFee": 4.952092140932431} | 0 | 1671580144432 | 524.9520921409325 | MetaculusBot | 1669236825922 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371629}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224124}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.78 | 1669236825769 | False | 0.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8057811133675999 | 6ks50VF49hXY7zMsaQun | {"NO": 3251.598175873842, "YES": 409.43290267509025} | 1 | will-mariupol-be-under-russian-cont | 8385.74249693991 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1? | 1654055940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.162740320817337 | True | play | YES | public | 1649382241487 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10492/mariupol-under-russian-control-on-june-1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 56.80513430547542, "platformFee": 9.467522384245907, "liquidityFee": 56.80513430547542} | 0 | 1654218983390 | 556.8051343054756 | MetaculusBot | 1654055410221 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529413006}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471367}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371701}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223834}] | ["politics-default", "world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.81 | 1654055408936 | 1651032910040 | False | 0.9705438878698616 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09830876746370461 | 9EG79Y5i8RC3l2iQIY6O | {"NO": 967.4153104933023, "YES": 1231.6079313344087} | 0.07888404774554761 | will-elon-musk-buy-a-significant-sh | 280.2971253023754 | Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years? | 1807160340000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.200914731195153 | False | basic | public | 1649385550204 | Lars Doucet | Consider the following:
Elon Musk has a net worth of $219B [1]
Jeff Bezos has a net worth of $171B [1]
Twitter has a market cap of $40 B [2]
New York Times Co has a market cap of of $7.58 B [3]
Bezos Purchased the Washington Post for $250 M [4]
Musk purchased 9% of twitter for $2.89 B [5]
It is therefore not completely out of the question that a chaos agent like Elon Musk might attempt to purchase some sizeable portion of the New York Times Co. If he spent the same amount on NYTCo as he did on his 9% of twitter, my napkin math gives him over a third of the company.
So how likely is this to happen in the next five years?
[1] https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/
[2] https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TWTR:NYSE?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjT17PTtoP3AhVermoFHe1sCe0Q3ecFegQIKhAg
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NYT
[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/details-of-bezos-deal-to-buy-washington-post/2013/08/05/968a2bc4-fe1b-11e2-9711-3708310f6f4d_story.html
[5] https://www.barrons.com/articles/musk-stake-twitter-active-51649234303
Apr 7, 9:39pm: To be clear I'm not trying to bring this about or trying to give the man any ideas. I'm just genuinely curious how likely anyone thinks it is.
Apr 7, 9:40pm: #ElonMusk #Twitter #NyTimes #News #Internet #GoofingAround | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003385172495309674} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7507832285425704, "platformFee": 0.19350046195776863, "liquidityFee": 1.1610027717466118} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1719520125798 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 18 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["politics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 1719520122733 | 1649386678691 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N | who-will-win-this-game-of-dune-the | 2513.7196298907515 | Who will win this game of Dune the board game among friends? | 1649395905175 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.636381806429127 | True | play | 159ad56209e0 | public | 1649386633298 | James | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.370397593001528, "platformFee": 3.592599398250382, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649395905175 | 460 | JamesGrugett | 1649386633298 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e4acf9b93a0d", "prob": 0.001847889033166432, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00954106189655622, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.153681255737544, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386633462, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.32", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395905000, "totalLiquidity": 0.22174668397997183, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "58fe75141d0d", "prob": 0.0014988039289166462, "text": "@banerjs", "index": 1, "poolNo": 0.009291009887267896, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.189658504465521, "textFts": "'banerj':1", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386694308, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:22.193", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395905000, "totalLiquidity": 0.2398086286266634, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "c62a78f4f154", "prob": 0.007217144319530587, "text": "@jamesgiammona", "index": 2, "poolNo": 0.12306964450062734, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.929332116066075, "textFts": "'jamesgiammona':1", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386760251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.324", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395905000, "totalLiquidity": 1.4434288639061175, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "62b40ff8c09a", "prob": 0.0009840740979328475, "text": "@sg", "index": 3, "poolNo": 0.006177112216539951, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.270903271786689, "textFts": "'sg':1", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386803366, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.32", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395905000, "totalLiquidity": 0.19681481958656952, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "159ad56209e0", "prob": 0.9884520886204534, "text": "@jamesgrugett", "index": 4, "poolNo": 25.641343378330298, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.2995632913262831, "textFts": "'jamesgrugett':1", "contractId": "6gfXa6mkScPoKj5HDN3N", "createdTime": 1649386815294, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-21T20:33:23.32", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1649395905000, "totalLiquidity": 2.77149873109118, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | {"159ad56209e0": 100} | True |
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