p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.47559652901659955 | NeF8emCiQFoHmtPWzgbz | {"NO": 937.7384391756783, "YES": 974.2143012056141} | 0.46608920173014456 | will-ukraine-lose-the-donbas-region | 50283.95169356806 | Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war | 1747281540000 | DjM6vi6hmrWXcxZdcABstFCMt0w2 | cpmm-1 | 0.04358288317336648 | 9.151442910964931 | False | basic | public | 1649386814517 | Smith Jon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before February 24th 2022, the administration of the Donbas region was split between the LPR, the DPR, and Ukraine. Part of the announced goals of the Russian invasion is to gain control of the entire region. This market resolves to yes if 1) a pea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.042291748590705835} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 80.83927147955869, "platformFee": 21.56096388135923, "liquidityFee": 9.735240218543332} | 0 | 1000 | SmithJon | 1719627181670 | 2.2 | 4 | 103 | 4 | 26 | 0.1257939228623222 | 0.5 | 1719627178495 | 1707605207316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.449451101093306 | QcDI0yu0TeWZxJlIVuSs | {"NO": 306.2741991583716, "YES": 8651.078353613573} | 0 | will-there-be-a-recession-in-the-us | 21102.29152310215 | Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months? | 1680926340000 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6495256435413004 | True | basic | NO | public | 1649388843781 | Oliver S |
Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 89.74708129290872, "platformFee": 5.729885232053423, "liquidityFee": 34.37931139232055} | 0 | 1697432738463 | 1403.3793113923202 | OliverS | 1697432745869 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 6 | 178 | 0 | 39 | 149 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1658529464557}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569847}] | ["global-macro", "economics-default"] | 0.35 | 1680920332512 | 1697432745094 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5128598275618527 | 395x4pN2hBP0EgiAIoQ0 | {"NO": 39.87580042962756, "YES": 270.2711355403486} | 0 | experiment-on-david-gliddens-am-i-a | 1436.7120443383976 | Experiment on David Glidden's "Am I a reputable market creator?" market with PROB resolution | 1649995140000 | sTxaR7V3rxQY5jKlSgTLX1L1aPM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0932744899017828 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649397345195 | William Kiely | David's market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/am-i-a-reputable-market-creator
I will resolve this market to PROB = (The value David's linked market resolves to - 95%) * 20. If his market resolves to less than or equal to 95%, I will resolve this to 0%. If his resolves to 100%, I will resolve this to 100%. If his reso... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.041366072285566, "platformFee": 4.34022767871426, "liquidityFee": 26.041366072285566} | 0 | 1649995236216 | 74.78210560467645 | WilliamKiely | 1649397345195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0bVfb9qX1mtjRci6TDxQ9fvGI6Kn-DjGd5bmsTKQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.5 | 1649998335565 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6959241763632098 | 28zOzsoCURNKt2k5msXU | {"NO": 80.49543144984851, "YES": 57.45282236832671} | 0.54 | experiment-on-william-kielys-experi | 311.58750152689356 | Experiment on William Kiely's 'Experiment on David Glidden's "Am I a reputable market creator?" market with PROB resolution' market with PROB resolution | 1649995140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.4758293655453665 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649432282347 | Isaac King | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/dglid/am-i-a-reputable-market-creator\nhttps://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/experiment-on-david-gliddens-am-i-a\n\nThis market resolves to the difference between the highest and lowest probabilities within the final 24 hours of William's market.\n\nFor example, if in the final 24 hours that market goes from 80% to 70% to 90% to 95% to 85%, this market will resolve to 95 - 70 = 25%." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.850791045057511, "platformFee": 0.9751318408429183, "liquidityFee": 5.850791045057511} | 0 | 1650007271656 | 54.96503812489908 | IsaacKing | 1649432282347 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1649464588173 | 0.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4946281389506722 | ICWhKcD2CMgMyd1ygCIf | {"NO": 23.035749659948735, "YES": 119.09670150942122} | 0 | at-the-time-this-market-closes-will | 73 | At the time this market closes, will the number of words in the Wikipedia article about Manifold be even? | 1650049200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.593442665675088 | True | play | NO | public | 1649433188436 | Isaac King | Here's the article in question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold
(Were you expecting something else?)
I'll find the revision that was current at the time this market closed, copy all text within the article into wordcounter.net, and use the total it returns. This does not include the article title or anything be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9660640987643212, "platformFee": 0.16101068312738687, "liquidityFee": 0.9660640987643212} | 0 | 1650052305277 | 50.96606409876432 | IsaacKing | 1649433188436 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649501179101 | 0.15917535028258514 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7820334438174553 | bHDE0TPgGbQ4cu9iv38M | {"NO": 26968.656405110065, "YES": 274.6938831149976} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-positive | 118034.55605598651 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2023 | 1672531317728 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8532861900148774 | True | basic | YES | public | 1649433399702 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2023. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for fre... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.8401369340969, "platformFee": 6.461344957017851, "liquidityFee": 38.768069742107095} | 0 | 1672531317728 | 1278.1992947786775 | NuñoSempere | 1690161576509 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 0 | 111 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078021218}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573059589}] | ["free-money", "interest-rates"] | 0.5 | 1672307895969 | 1690161573406 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.653735940482333 | 4argqZzzPGQYjCWCJoOh | {"NO": 78512.06685433915, "YES": 115.83354468432549} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-273301020824 | 150161.3441379791 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022 | 1656734340000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | -0.06371320849495277 | True | basic | YES | public | 1649433571220 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2022. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 259.29894911236903, "platformFee": 39.19441276244571, "liquidityFee": 235.16647657467433} | 0 | 1656848259432 | 1250.995915151919 | NuñoSempere | 1656848329330 | 0 | 121 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573095332}] | ["interest-rates"] | 0.5 | 1656730032455 | 1656848326672 | 0.9992191569622884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8157684073415051 | rfPlb3B1McoxJ4gkqqFA | {"NO": 57708.07701814897, "YES": 392.73487239323555} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-95e8560f7cc5 | 471394.0795703436 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2023 | 1688270340000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.046607539830168854 | True | basic | YES | public | 1649433728333 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2023. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.32077072302476, "platformFee": 5.564158720471345, "liquidityFee": 33.38495232282807} | 0 | 1688690438291 | 1470.0177300521439 | NuñoSempere | 1690161529747 | 1 | 0 | 151 | 0 | 1 | 84 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573076666}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078021219}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "nonpredictive-profits", "free-mana"] | 0.18589463374764428 | 0.5 | False | 1688262553039 | 1690161525469 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8565039234037984 | PKNYP424Lz0D7ubGxfch | {"NO": 79434.9752018837, "YES": 643.0714388621063} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-eaedc5ce14e0 | 197823.15755935461 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024 | 1704157626019 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | -0.30243498191829943 | True | basic | YES | public | 1649433777986 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending func... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 79.10196508046576, "platformFee": 7.070104425210009, "liquidityFee": 42.420626551260064} | 0 | 1704157626019 | 1797.3791478784801 | NuñoSempere | 1704157627206 | 1.4 | 136 | 0 | 70 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078021219}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573087261}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1539498752135021 | 0.5 | 1704152549746 | 1704122182562 | 1 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7670237861219606 | s2o94Iy9OsSwZEyCyjyG | {"NO": 11824.786639228725, "YES": 419.1937822740678} | 0.9893469761105028 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3 | 28275.66566539299 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2025 | 1735793940000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1649433862927 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2025. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for fre... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00011724346282304676} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.586841951611575, "platformFee": 5.282434172294906, "liquidityFee": 26.93791289321306} | 0 | 1346.9379128932135 | NuñoSempere | 1719524253837 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 55 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078021219}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573005670}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"] | 0.5 | 1719524250515 | 1690804577328 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8375401918182395 | Quo9nFTCJk5Rl2DjGogb | {"NO": 7913.957560027785, "YES": 814.2813691060297} | 0.9804323490633932 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-114eccf1cb27 | 45153.67397051885 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027 | 1798865940000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0.00232167390051711 | 10.03490710294082 | False | basic | public | 1649433917742 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for fre... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00014550619933129116} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.47374226320109, "platformFee": 4.595766595770534, "liquidityFee": 27.269985025032952} | 0 | 1686.7948356484999 | NuñoSempere | 1718881141053 | 1.1 | 83 | 0 | 45 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078021219}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573022829}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"] | 0.17308335064452474 | 0.5 | 1718881137982 | 1690161709513 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8539210864763325 | PGIn1GpkgW7Ig2uLb9QN | {"NO": 7158.76609670408, "YES": 1294.2491875642345} | 0.97 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-5c753f5a33e1 | 559418.7232093486 | This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030 | 1893560340000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 6.602675633715856e-05 | 4.4989700488345274 | False | basic | public | 1649433974471 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for fre... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.623418183845395, "platformFee": 13.306146938487702, "liquidityFee": 27.04813521908323} | 0 | 2130.2448395267684 | NuñoSempere | 1714425028783 | 1.1 | 1 | 149 | 0 | 73 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659078679662}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664573013820}, {"nam... | ["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"] | 0.1609219110492711 | 0.5 | 1714425025244 | 1704850241346 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.83013845940266 | SW6uod7AN4juLF9xeOxs | {"NO": 1125.8630310912547, "YES": 944.3073932664244} | 0.8535177758768451 | will-a-single-model-running-on-a-si | 3851.9676879284525 | Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025? | 1767243540000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0.5434393219908825 | 9.803054465681019 | False | basic | public | 1649438291076 | Vincent Luczkow | There are no restrictions on the amount or kind of compute used to *train* the model. Question is about whether it will actually be done, not whether it will be possible in theory. If I judge the model to really be many specific models stuck together to look like one general model it will not count. | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4146287886653583, "platformFee": 0.24807280604909757, "liquidityFee": 1.4884368362945852} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1710346062776 | 2.2 | 27 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440334}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.20645679602074604 | 0.5 | 1710346059242 | 1684604515954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40721076399480816 | Leo6Cj8srKJz1eFYPUbW | {"NO": 878.1556663543636, "YES": 1207.6031097377459} | 0.333126757618453 | will-a-single-model-achieve-superhu | 398.4480110766459 | Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025? | 1767243540000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.739018476810433 | False | basic | public | 1649438817351 | Vincent Luczkow | Note: single *model*, not single *algorithm* (the latter has already been done). If I decide the model is actually many environment specific models stuck together (e.g. a hierarchical model that predicts current environment and delegates to a subagent) it will not count (a single model that *learns* a hierarchy without... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006141371203495338} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.318026437418292, "platformFee": 0.21903546635258114, "liquidityFee": 1.3142127981154867} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1719238923284 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440078}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.5 | 1719238920222 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4314808750177495 | m0ZDoJEys4Qmr8KTuxDP | {"NO": 918.5317751686489, "YES": 1081.565320956624} | 0.3919316312684842 | will-a-single-model-achieve-superhu-ecef5d3c1d52 | 341.04833703288716 | Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025? | 1767243540000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2079526882111207 | 9.808048206413089 | False | basic | public | 1649439070433 | Vincent Luczkow | "OpenAI gym environments" means all environments that come with the `gym` python package as of 2022-04-08 (this includes the Mujoco environments even though they require third-party software)
Note: single *model*, not single *algorithm* If I decide the model is actually many environment specific models stuck together ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.1980683687315158, "week": -0.1980683687315158, "month": -0.1980683687315158} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.085817025805835, "platformFee": 1.2074585721264437, "liquidityFee": 0.4054054054054055} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1714390026318 | 1.1 | 13 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440974}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.12516112353543282 | 0.5 | 1714390022938 | 1671143635596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nkVGf9dUmiIZoEFHaMTk | test-310ca1e4586f | 101 | test | 1649439219305 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.01564734330884 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649439212349 | Isaac King | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649439219305 | 220 | IsaacKing | 1649439212349 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2bc3c9d5fa2e", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nkVGf9dUmiIZoEFHaMTk", "createdTime": 1649439212653, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44946022906601724 | 4eSUQyVX5UH0y1QqRlQM | {"NO": 191.48171872719735, "YES": 4564.084454347801} | 0 | will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate | 32748.570280817214 | Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023? | 1672549200000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9742336403091163 | True | play | NO | public | 1649440524880 | Vincent Luczkow | Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description.
It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough".
It must be able to consistently gen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3877548829590145, "platformFee": 0.45131731257038704, "liquidityFee": 2.707903875422322} | 0 | 1672779771471 | 800.7079038754223 | vluzko | 1672700970799 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 0 | 1 | 163 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529439826}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664598697706}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1672547552772 | 1672700964618 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6879033508272858 | 46GZbDrsP7NIBtQmYRO7 | {"NO": 1044.5188182889171, "YES": 975.0495508398322} | 0.7024848617067461 | once-a-model-achieves-superhuman-pe | 322.8862102614853 | Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? | 2556161940000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0.3081105558566842 | 9.575268888195552 | False | basic | public | 1649441180252 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Entry level\" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted). Rough criteria: the AI acts with little oversight, performs simil... | BINARY | {"day": -6.661338147750939e-16, "week": -6.661338147750939e-16, "month": -6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3205132488643294, "platformFee": 0.22008554147738824, "liquidityFee": 1.3205132488643294} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1689067007768 | 1.1 | 12 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529439753}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664598782902}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-ma... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "ancient-markets"] | 0.13677419516650258 | 0.5 | 1689067007653 | 1660939611322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6508512526560077 | kUWYRQehyCy68D30cIsr | {"NO": 2395.9208378669673, "YES": 810.4412970397472} | 0.8464112911021965 | will-it-cost-less-than-100k-usd-to | 6104.963483795708 | Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024? | 1735707540000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.521405741450435 | False | basic | public | 1649442094248 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The final model does not have to cost 100k. If a model outperforms GPT-3 before 100k has been spent on training the market resolves yes, even if the model continues to be trained after that point.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.022582696266272, "platformFee": 0.02797415182374752, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1208 | vluzko | 1713441983896 | 0 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 44 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440908}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908018}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"] | 0.12376018984580434 | 0.5 | 1713441980662 | 1683457461197 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9023865773180263 | WuuGeMvpR9qak8KFLDpD | {"NO": 1177.8572993978341, "YES": 958.481563405152} | 0.9190961914340156 | once-a-model-achieves-superhuman-pe-d6675100069a | 437.7592961687756 | Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? | 2524626000000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0.09522325700784999 | 10.215678324067419 | False | basic | public | 1649443073817 | Vincent Luczkow | "Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).
Rough criteria: the AI acts with little oversight, performs similar (coding) work to entry-level coders at the time, the issue/task assign... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8761887892628415, "platformFee": 0.14603146487714025, "liquidityFee": 0.8761887892628415} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1690557552611 | 1.1 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440398}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1691181582142}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "create... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "programming", "ai"] | 0.12697563884549445 | 0.5 | 1690557552249 | 1680378704840 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49634131641041046 | kfaRIW5SIkD4Ox7m3LNX | {"NO": 42.26973762256406, "YES": 63.36462654626186} | 0.39664373626918253 | if-i-order-cinnamon-swirl-huel-this | 54.00000000000003 | If I order Cinnamon Swirl Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.325597495008431 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649443503020 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531530535 | 50.83949390941958 | Tetraspace | 1667245352682 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 1667245352580 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5023414652946842 | OEhqpIWjV1MzmgFW7h0C | {"NO": 59.03674497810153, "YES": 44.63402218907475} | 1 | if-i-order-chocolate-huel-this-year | 54.23870742841448 | If I order Chocolate Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1662379021911 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.335196070052724 | True | play | YES | public | 1649443529873 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6498055813405943, "platformFee": 0.1083009302234324, "liquidityFee": 0.6498055813405943} | 0 | 1662379021911 | 50.649805581340594 | Tetraspace | 1661418262491 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 1661418262405 | 0.5717585410658788 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2004983776557097 | l7iFVcAz6Fq7fp6LsBN0 | {"NO": 56.150937479060616, "YES": 35.40606146013225} | 0.2845460643636422 | if-i-order-coffee-huel-this-year-wi | 35.23186456778589 | If I order Coffee Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.7789760464364015 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649443583144 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. I don't like the taste of coffee and when I drink it do so with a lot of sugar. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531520294 | 50.59619600780967 | Tetraspace | 1667245355390 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.2 | 1667245355266 | 0.28 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5008607567206865 | CS3qeUEwFQfPpx0KCaqW | {"NO": 46.57970028779356, "YES": 57.88523158359021} | 0.4467392238667358 | if-i-order-original-huel-this-year | 44.996669982282995 | If I order Original Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.29914155773874 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649443622176 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672538278719 | 50.96767842268824 | Tetraspace | 1667245225074 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 1667245224872 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19970885999682494 | 1gLTxOVqww2oOPZ7sNAX | {"NO": 48.87269932068689, "YES": 64.02873971325246} | 0.16000000000000003 | if-i-order-unflavoured-unsweetened | 79.27730261305481 | If I order Unflavoured & Unsweetened Huel this year, will I prefer it to Vanilla Huel? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.752941526177703 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649443674279 | Tetra | I prefer Berry to Vanilla and Vanilla to Banana.
Huel warns: "Unflavoured & Unsweetened Huel Powder isn’t for everyone. The taste is very earthy, and most people prefer the taste of our flavoured versions. Vanilla is the best choice if you would like a neutral flavour to add your own flavours to." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672531928758 | 50.79026860144841 | Tetraspace | 1668251521474 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1668251521285 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5MEDxzbjRDCgEOexhNl6 | who-will-win-the-2022-fields-medals | 20006.582194593946 | Who will win the 2022 Fields medals? | 1657004340000 | 0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.618022953345885 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1649447970460 | Chan Bae | As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.
Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.70925988600504, "platformFee": 23.67731497150126, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657005657523 | 2660.0000000000014 | ChanBae | 1657005707040 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghfy1G7G5GLx2lohswuOz-mC_1EomRs9Q63-zKVZA=s96-c | 43 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "01c0fdd27527", "prob": 0.0003041683488911495, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00033012818742630365, "userId": "0tNRj1oWkFZseNi7CTRKC8biWFT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.0850168141548364, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5MEDxzbjRDCgEOexhNl6", "createdTime": 1649447970600, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522700}] | ["science-default"] | 1656999442249 | 1657005696638 | {"2b963d13b07f": 24.89944582474263, "4afdcd47a940": 25.30166252577211, "a38eae450f3f": 24.89944582474263, "c2bf24954fe7": 24.89944582474263} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
erlCrZPs12CARRbRNUXx | when-will-a-single-model-first-achi | 306 | When will a single model first achieve 10@k solve rate >= 90% on the CodeContests dataset? | 1956632340000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649448751250 | Vincent Luczkow | 10@k - unlimited samples may be generated, but at most 10 code samples may be submitted per problem.
I will post my own responses and pick whichever one of those turns out to be correct.
CodeContests dataset: https://github.com/deepmind/code_contests
Close date updated to 2050-01-01 11:59 pm
Apr 8, 4:16pm: Options ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 820 | vluzko | 1714589369957 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ecfe2b4779e", "prob": 0.038750077500155, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7002179081338739, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.369885516332126, "textFts": "", "contractId": "erlCrZPs12CARRbRNUXx", "createdTime": 1649448751475, "probChanges": {"day": -0.96124992249... | 6 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440753}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 1714589366672 | 1666333091793 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bkvX4HBqWXAfAqzJu9dA | when-will-any-model-achieve-human-p | 459.71442151895116 | When will any model achieve >=human performance on QuALITY? | 1956546000000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649449532442 | Vincent Luczkow | QuALITY: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.08608.pdf. At time of writing, human performance is 93.5% and this will be used to resolve the question.
Apr 8, 4:25pm: I've written my own answers and will pick whichever one applies. x-y means after x and before y. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0634182092128761, "platformFee": 0.0634182092128761, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 680 | vluzko | 1715868605207 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8925c3b9da24", "prob": 0.021833790468377523, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.16025434119319118, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.179485472894148, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bkvX4HBqWXAfAqzJu9dA", "createdTime": 1649449532633, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 5 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440543}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736798692}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ancient-markets"] | 1715868601820 | 1666812565868 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07794554614718446 | hghnYqDPuINZrn3tG3Cb | {"NO": 959.103366217472, "YES": 1173.9978182577277} | 0.06459968101786533 | will-great-britain-and-northern-ire | 770.1223938468298 | Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030? | 1893455940000 | AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.40860412090314 | False | basic | public | 1649455561792 | Handdara | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if the state known as or formally known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolishes its monarchy and becomes a republic before 0:00 1 January 2030. Whether other Commonwealth countries continue to ... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.545251146573911, "platformFee": 0.9690620706308121, "liquidityFee": 5.8143724237848735} | 0 | 1000 | MichaelBennett | 1707166901058 | 1.1 | 30 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500295}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659557995979}, {"name": "Collective Autonomy", "slug": "collecti... | ["politics-default", "uk-politics", "collective-autonomy"] | 0.11170458919215565 | 0.5 | 1707166900911 | 1653259011008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10251934128156405 | J9q3HrwnISnHMcdUEXwZ | {"NO": 105.90712751245137, "YES": 79.54079297225088} | 1 | will-my-pcr-test-from-thursday-retu | 99 | Will my PCR test from Thursday return positive? | 1649477169198 | pfO6wiM63hVDismrZQhwFooawb13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.392372282851833 | True | play | YES | public | 1649456956100 | Dragon | Apr 8, 6:48pm: Here's all the material info!
I went to EAGx Boston (~1000 person convention) last weekend and met/partied with hundreds of people.
Symptoms started appearing Tuesday, got worse Wed/Thurs, and are much better Friday.
I took a lateral flow on Mon and a cue test on Wed. Both Negative. I haven't heard t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4634058062781323, "platformFee": 0.24390096771302205, "liquidityFee": 1.4634058062781323} | 0 | 1649477169198 | 101.46340580627815 | Dragon | 1649456956100 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1649469545914 | 0.10602486230533556 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3281657061104973 | ozWRZDb2p64ybkIILQyH | {"NO": 172.36679735485896, "YES": 296.2266723819775} | 0.15 | how-many-new-covid19-cases-will-the-689b617587db | 190 | How many new COVID-19 cases will the CDC report for April 10th, 2022? (1% = 1,000 cases) | 1649689200000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8271251072505919 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649459481866 | horse | Resolves according to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. Every thousand new cases will count as 1% for resolution, if it's over 100k it'll resolve to YES and if it's under 1k it'll resolve to NO. Market closes 8 AM on April 11th - I think this is before the official numbers come out.
Sources of data for your ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9393213787061456, "platformFee": 0.48988689645102423, "liquidityFee": 2.9393213787061456} | 0 | 1649785885184 | 202.93932137870613 | horse | 1649459481866 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1649468702581 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6308524316241596 | NCBvtiuEl3Gwrudr3V7k | {"NO": 11.678423908908773, "YES": 645.3012172792941} | 0 | will-i-still-be-using-habits-garden | 1420.8950467540626 | Will I still be using Habits Garden in eight months? | 1671439274341 | ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9693754422821153 | True | play | NO | public | 1649463352448 | John Beshir | Six days ago I started using https://habitsgarden.com/ to add a little additional fun to my daily habits of doing Duolingo, Anki, listening to audiobooks and my household routine.
I've been wanting something a little different to Habitica, been tempted to try to build my own for want of someone else doing so, and I ki... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.665827609030475, "platformFee": 0.6920447367814038, "liquidityFee": 4.152268420688423} | 0 | 1671439274341 | 144.15226842068844 | jbeshir | 1671439248792 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 19 | 0.6 | 1671439248537 | 1663528806956 | 0.67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aSrjDAnH5DiBMlAT3bas | which-book-on-software-architecture | 3043.7896861125314 | Which book on software architecture or engineering, suggested by this market, will I consider to be the most informative? | 1652741940000 | ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.632740812117218 | True | play | 79bcc684fc65 | public | 1649466187220 | John Beshir | I'm a backend developer focused on developing systems comprised of microservices deployed in k8s, including designing the overall architecture of which services are built with what APIs used how to create a useful system, managing their deployment configuration, integrating observability (logging/metrics/tracing/alerti... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.90564576337837, "platformFee": 20.976411440844593, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661275935957 | 440 | jbeshir | 1661276123158 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "78e648438d88", "prob": 0.1264457994548998, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.735032835432376, "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.52915517608478, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aSrjDAnH5DiBMlAT3bas", "createdTime": 1649466187411, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | [{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622604}] | ["recommendations"] | 1652695076364 | 1661276123774 | {"79bcc684fc65": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9836488584628045 | SDD6arInpKhq2y4rMPJS | {"NO": 68.98777692157246, "YES": 41.31402626223594} | 1 | will-amlo-win-his-recall-election | 112 | Will AMLO win his recall election? | 1649643703982 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1649469820195 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if AMLO wins his recall election. It resolves to "no" if he loses.
If voter turnout is below the required amount to recall AMLO, this market resolves to "yes". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2045978232422518, "platformFee": 0.03409963720704196, "liquidityFee": 0.2045978232422518} | 0 | 1649643703982 | 50.204597823242246 | EnopoletusHarding | 1649469820195 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.99 | 1649538701268 | 0.988464743603765 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4988840002553861 | JUJGsIxOfQK2hFrpqYu5 | {"NO": 177.15584923739704, "YES": 243.89696729729505} | 0.5 | what-will-be-the-results-of-my-test | 147 | What will be the results of my testosterone test (percentile)? | 1650351540000 | pfO6wiM63hVDismrZQhwFooawb13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5827646535134616 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649478675807 | Dragon | This market resolves with value equal to my Total Testosterone percentile among American men my age. For example if my TT is higher than 25% of my peers the market resolves 0.25
437 healthy non-obese American men age 20-29 were sampled in the study I'm using as my ground truth. These were their percentiles
10% 247 n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.89519703862606, "platformFee": 0.6491995064376768, "liquidityFee": 3.89519703862606} | 0 | 1652227838082 | 203.89519703862604 | Dragon | 1686717126739 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1686717123434 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46444132622225237 | O8HPv1BMPoaKUvbLndeN | {"NO": 44.09604777599763, "YES": 85.04593442508173} | 0 | will-new-zealand-qualify-for-the-20 | 772.6184801076234 | Will New Zealand qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1655229540000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.001127865091939 | True | play | NO | public | 1649482417877 | N.C. Young | Apr 10, 10:44am: If my understanding is right, New Zealand gets in iff they defeat Costa Rica.
Close date updated to 2022-06-15 5:59 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.38182209583416, "platformFee": 0.8969703493056933, "liquidityFee": 5.38182209583416} | 0 | 1655237709538 | 55.38182209583415 | NcyRocks | 1655210169444 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401158}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533859}] | ["sports-default", "new-zealand"] | 0.5 | 1655210168123 | 0.3101760085131059 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Uyr8iQ3UWx773mKseXsA | in-what-year-will-mainstream-person | 125 | In what year will mainstream personal computers first be advertised as "quantum"? | 4103769600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649524131279 | Isaac King | Resolves based on the marketing for relatively inexpensive computers targeted at non-technical users. They don't have to actually *be* quantum computers, it could just be marketing nonsense. A single instance is not sufficient to resolve this market, it needs to a consistent feature of marketing by a large company comp... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 500 | IsaacKing | 1707932565524 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "da541d4e4ba8", "prob": 0.2356489772834386, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.467474230256848, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.95229941326112, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Uyr8iQ3UWx773mKseXsA", "createdTime": 1649524131478, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 5 | [{"name": "Quantum Computing", "slug": "quantum-computing", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "WppmGHiwW2nxSiHi2FiQ", "createdTime": 1670227615935}] | ["quantum-computing"] | 1707932565378 | 1686333281340 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ylhuIrjV4AaxCDvp845F | who-will-win-this-vanilla-hoi4-alla | 104 | Who will win this vanilla HOI4 all-AI Spanish civil war | 1649530764727 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.006127541774194 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649530526995 | DAL59 | https://imgur.com/a/VrOtRdP | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649530764727 | 300 | DAL59 | 1649530526995 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "066e7dbd2e2c", "prob": 0.9245562130177515, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.692729712468264, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.5861267445374105, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ylhuIrjV4AaxCDvp845F", "createdTime": 1649530527407, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49628873863398737 | IzYZ1O9MlZuUVAOSOp2l | {"NO": 54.87246522520047, "YES": 195.73713353188379} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-paul-manafort-be | 96 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will Paul Manafort be arrested by May 15th, 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.910014249433715 | True | play | NO | public | 1649531879390 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5771988086973607, "platformFee": 0.2628664681162268, "liquidityFee": 1.5771988086973607} | 0 | 1653276442203 | 101.57719880869736 | EleutherAI6b | 1649531879390 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.21642779329119186 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.54980421626527 | 6zyS6OqnuyPXfrTEGws4 | {"NO": 200.79076022245272, "YES": 78.47214277343785} | 0.7575693438132532 | eleutherai-6b-will-toyota-increase | 81 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will Toyota increase their market share of automobiles by 1% in 2023? | 1704171540000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649531902845 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.255438665283733, "platformFee": 0.20923977754728887, "liquidityFee": 1.255438665283733} | 0 | 121.25543866528373 | EleutherAI6b | 1706440173460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 0.5 | 1704155833466 | 1706440171790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4881898972173809 | 6E4CCuKm2qNlWdutXji6 | {"NO": 27.097863388632042, "YES": 424.6632412572243} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-the-ncaa-allow-t | 325 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will the NCAA allow the use of human growth hormone (HGH) by athletes until the start of the 2023-04-01 season? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5789426814768683 | True | play | NO | public | 1649531928812 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.020552456654511, "platformFee": 0.33675874277575185, "liquidityFee": 2.020552456654511} | 0 | 1694301141419 | 102.02055245665451 | EleutherAI6b | 1694301144451 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 1694301143873 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4914044872470814 | vmThh1vCNkyuOozaxEqL | {"NO": 33.116152932423404, "YES": 330.77159886437795} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-the-uk-establish | 231 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will the UK establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund by the end of 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3504421318238533 | True | play | NO | public | 1649531965747 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3704068137321386, "platformFee": 0.22840113562202316, "liquidityFee": 1.3704068137321386} | 0 | 1675281595466 | 101.37040681373215 | EleutherAI6b | 1649531965747 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4994635318274626 | qypQDfFPmv9BGP5gDh2x | {"NO": 89.35097614608036, "YES": 115.03801541136777} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-there-be-a-new-u | 26 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will there be a new United Nations peacekeeping mission by the end of 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.753437087254365 | True | play | NO | public | 1649531995090 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6852169934438818, "platformFee": 0.11420283224064696, "liquidityFee": 0.6852169934438818} | 0 | 1675281581226 | 100.68521699344387 | EleutherAI6b | 1649531995090 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48998167154399086 | FBjAJrya1uaIZK8wze2Q | {"NO": 29.74370295783833, "YES": 374.7416623141754} | 0 | will-the-us-government-shut-down-th | 275 | Will the US government shut down the federal government by May 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.469894969494859 | True | play | NO | public | 1649532025347 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5500261149469887, "platformFee": 0.2583376858244982, "liquidityFee": 1.5500261149469887} | 0 | 1675281603039 | 101.55002611494699 | EleutherAI6b | 1656654060254 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862146}] | ["please-resolve", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1656654054937 | False | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4789718879273994 | bca70ZX7GvEbVHh9LEcA | {"NO": 45.971293801355316, "YES": 319.7903871156162} | 0.12 | eleutherai-will-the-uks-universal-c | 304.31227230047307 | [EleutherAI] Will the UK's "Universal Credit" be fully implemented by the end of 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.934452221508797 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649532084035 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.591654510781717, "platformFee": 0.7652757517969528, "liquidityFee": 4.591654510781717} | 0 | 1675281702383 | 102.34491520252655 | EleutherAI6b | 1649532084035 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 | 1649538328892 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49176361094119414 | W8JMFHUVmahk5G7v0MPN | {"NO": 33.994061526711846, "YES": 320.7804356905033} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-there-be-a-new-a | 221 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will there be a new agreement between Israel and the Palestinians before the start of 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3230780753365377 | True | play | NO | public | 1649532146284 | EleutherAI 6b | *"End of" not "start of" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3173858569802606, "platformFee": 0.21956430949671016, "liquidityFee": 1.3173858569802606} | 0 | 1675281632414 | 101.31738585698027 | EleutherAI6b | 1649532146284 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1659859269702}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670829273362}] | ["arabisraeli-conflict", "israel"] | 0.5 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4981090584344397 | 9wFMURu3SkeQVRgEsgDq | {"NO": 66.21622143968196, "YES": 159.56535937297014} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-the-current-us-c | 62 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will the current US Congress pass a tax increase for the first time since 1993? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.817159388026132 | True | play | NO | public | 1649532230585 | EleutherAI 6b | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3101383202261332, "platformFee": 0.21835638670435553, "liquidityFee": 1.3101383202261332} | 0 | 1675281615836 | 101.31013832022613 | EleutherAI6b | 1649532230585 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 1649636328795 | 0.29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.482567993324355 | VCuudfOspVDd6gnq8NBV | {"NO": 39.53973419143534, "YES": 361.6559002500071} | 0 | eleutherai-6b-will-the-us-immigrati | 351.3406389668645 | [EleutherAI 6b] Will the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency be replaced by 2022? | 1650167940000 | twsQ0jctlZOevWNkWsr7uc8Q3hJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0849972057208683 | True | play | NO | public | 1649532297035 | EleutherAI 6b | Apr 9, 3:50pm: *end of 2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.036472332999208, "platformFee": 0.8394120554998681, "liquidityFee": 5.036472332999208} | 0 | 1675281622342 | 103.2660332842124 | EleutherAI6b | 1649532297035 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy-PlUSbhn-CaFc5TcSVMjTeiYV_D-2OLWKD5Sy=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670001592}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3dKy85Szd3Toq7ytXv84 | when-will-sota-for-atari-100k-pass | 258 | When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games? | 1956546000000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649536424730 | Vincent Luczkow | Atari 100k: Atari Learning Environment with only 100k samples.
This must be a single *learning* algorithm, not a single model. Hyperparameters do not have to be shared across environments.
I will post a set of mutually exclusive answers covering possible years and select whichever turns out true. I will not select any... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6045023693905921, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 520 | vluzko | 1716778451316 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "79740548fb37", "prob": 0.25765253675114264, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.255454910542023, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.31036790291286, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3dKy85Szd3Toq7ytXv84", "createdTime": 1649536425009, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 4 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529439679}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 1716778447476 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.059048374383470305 | DLeeg717I4X6ghyez8Ml | {"NO": 103.86157621088776, "YES": 355.7690854015636} | 0 | will-i-get-a-job-at-manifold-market | 562.4955600748622 | Will I get a job at Manifold Markets this month? | 1652238000000 | A2aQ1YL9H1UrCmSlP7tfPKWM4G52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.556311232698388 | True | play | NO | public | 1649548955677 | Stephen Bennett | Resolves YES if, prior to May 10th, 2022, I come to an agreement with someone at Manifold Markets to work there, where "work" means I have some direct responsibilities for components of Manifold Markets. Note that I do not need to have started working there at that time, but have come to a mutual agreement to work in t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.961127798756997, "platformFee": 0.8268546331261665, "liquidityFee": 4.961127798756997} | 0 | 1652281374778 | 103.86095038130405 | StephenBennett | 1652162002833 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwAkOtwlujSMGHoS9AoOHicsDtpILjEtYRqsRBR=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1652162001485 | 1650407916172 | 0.01799049212584473 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
chwkao74ZReWOLPH5Rjm | when-will-sota-on-mmlu-stem-questio | 132 | When will SOTA on MMLU STEM questions pass 75%? | 1659049237270 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.935288044437528 | True | play | 07a8ab675903 | public | 1649549748608 | Vincent Luczkow | MMLU: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300v3. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.2, "platformFee": 1.3, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659049237270 | 500 | vluzko | 1659049305550 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cdfd7648fb62", "prob": 0.573921028466483, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.505494273838885, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.04087894889799, "textFts": "", "contractId": "chwkao74ZReWOLPH5Rjm", "createdTime": 1649549748775, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440681}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 1659049300783 | {"07a8ab675903": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bHXRwOdc3WQtSGPEWroj | when-will-nocalculator-sota-on-the | 868.0933116835729 | When will no-calculator SOTA on the MATH dataset pass 90%? | 2209006800000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1649565199174 | Vincent Luczkow | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 659.9999999999999 | vluzko | 1690282142519 | 0.1 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dc4448127363", "prob": 0.0536068318406224, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0773715335969032, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.020282004295783, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bHXRwOdc3WQtSGPEWroj", "createdTime": 1649565199510, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 7 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440477}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.10475092401937189 | 1690282142359 | 1679562525619 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5615981774606471 | aNYy2YdJ9riqFMxL9Jxy | {"NO": 292.2296517474971, "YES": 80.41390370518828} | 1 | will-googles-large-language-model-p | 1581.2642283554962 | Will Google's Large Language Model, PaLM, be able to answer, at a human level, questions I make up? | 1663186094718 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3672635018611206 | True | play | YES | public | 1649567488087 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The examples in Figure 19 of Google's paper about their Large Language Model -- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.02311.pdf -- are gobsmacking to me. The authors claim they had the following dialog with it: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.318938888275987, "platformFee": 3.3222852822672895, "liquidityFee": 19.933711693603726} | 0 | 1663186094718 | 119.104349293797 | dreev | 1663186082163 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0.55 | 1662961840630 | 1663186076145 | 0.823174319016929 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5049644850838589 | pXsBGSdZLhAIrLT1MqOr | {"NO": 25.393324488753024, "YES": 465.28887167799445} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-implement-a-m | 566.1368860532076 | Will Manifold Markets implement a "Most changed" sorting option for trades before July 1? | 1656658740000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.555798952023149 | True | play | NO | public | 1649622049542 | Conflux | When I'm looking at my portfolio, I kind of care about value, and kind of care about profit, and kind of care about resolution date, but really what I want to know is, "What changed since I last looked at my portfolio?" I think this sorting feature would be relatively easier to implement, and would improve quality of l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.076859678615055, "platformFee": 0.8574440908942914, "liquidityFee": 5.144664545365749} | 0 | 1656680551215 | 105.14466454536576 | Conflux | 1656657295802 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656657294367 | 1656281637161 | 0.05273430006128325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.699539856039821 | w1jCrpTlKxOrrOwAz5aR | {"NO": 98.91842804830969, "YES": 103.41495894944879} | 1 | will-the-tsa-extend-the-mask-mandat | 41 | Will the TSA extend the mask mandate for planes beyond April 18, 2022? | 1649874890453 | NpENjBBhXcOGwkenF06IhIZMGQo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2501966694263675 | True | play | YES | public | 1649633534496 | BestGuess | The TSA's mask mandate for public transportation and transportation hubs currently extends to April 18, 2022.
https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/statements/2022/03/10/statement-regarding-face-mask-use-public-transportation
This market will resolve to YES if the TSA extends the mask mandate beyond April 18, 2022 for planes... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0215910900036151, "platformFee": 0.17026518166726923, "liquidityFee": 1.0215910900036151} | 0 | 1649874890453 | 101.02159109000362 | BestGuess | 1649633534496 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.6901142722977214 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | YfFfcvfVIV0WdxJM0Q3A | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | will-this-market-be-resolved-in-202 | 0 | Will this market be resolved in 2022? | 1649635383486 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.701635339554951 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649635306094 | Undox | What's this scam?
Simple:
I personally will resolve this market.
But some other entity might (https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4 ? )
If they do, and they do it in 2022 and they resolve based on the actual outcome it should be YES. They might go for NA or Prob. If we get to 2023 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1649635383486 | 100 | Undox | 1649635306094 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8947586162769358 | Mgf9Mu0VjgUxAurmRWSr | {"NO": 2243.7123912115817, "YES": 192.1107331242501} | 1 | market-resolution-is-yes-but-undox | 3970.3854995430456 | Market resolution is YES. But.... Undox will not resolve it. | 1672405140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6024509055517133 | True | play | YES | public | 1649635550531 | Undox | This market resolves YES. But like many many markets on MM, I will disappear into the sunset and never resolve it. But it is ethically a YES. Maybe an admin will come in and sort this out? (I.e. like discussed in https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4).
Apr 11, 10:09am: https://man... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.836587620235757, "platformFee": 0.8612527387098738, "liquidityFee": 5.167516432259243} | 0 | 1680898642327 | 263.67643479999396 | Undox | 1681860610909 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 20 | 30 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1663109024434}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1671393438508}] | ["free-money", "please-resolve"] | 0.69 | 1672338873261 | 1681860608440 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7918001558551042 | 17466WPbH2b6XPSPmyf6 | {"NO": 79.4033598017216, "YES": 115.8105264393332} | 0 | will-i-see-someone-trading-on-mm-du | 178.68718854745237 | Will I see someone trading on MM during Boston ACX meetup? | 1652558340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.019074740734867 | True | play | NO | public | 1649638959133 | Jenny | I plan to attend https://www.lesswrong.com/events/iegJBnPhL3jM7ueS7/boston-acx-spring-schelling-point-meetup.
This market resolves YES if I see anyone (other than me) trading on MM during the meetup.
If for some reason I am unable to attend, the market resolves N/A.
Apr 10, 9:03pm: They have to be trading between 5 an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.633064995037067, "platformFee": 0.6055108325061779, "liquidityFee": 3.633064995037067} | 0 | 1652569991520 | 103.63306499503709 | Jenny | 1652546576597 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1652546575192 | 1652543750328 | 0.7228005112884814 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31988173133552866 | 4SyvqCrL5N35lbQRhDZU | {"NO": 70.81061032340162, "YES": 705.3831104076249} | 0 | will-russia-control-90-of-donetsk-a | 1154.3151987449746 | Will Russia control 90% of Donetsk and Luhansk during 2022? | 1672491600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9476576191241706 | True | play | NO | public | 1649669035382 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves to yes if Russia controls (approximately) 90% of the total area of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts combined by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0344136793362226, "platformFee": 0.30135276565879154, "liquidityFee": 1.8081165939527488} | 0 | 1672540247436 | 181.80811659395278 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672483982423 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.5 | 1672483982320 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.454708918511166 | XMVJ6yAEZFWxyeUn008h | {"NO": 98.72747545810628, "YES": 1548.1940556081397} | 0 | will-kharkiv-fall-to-russia-during | 1785.481709737418 | Will Kharkiv fall to Russia during 2022? | 1672491600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.653287877634691 | True | play | NO | public | 1649669139398 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves to yes if Russia occupies all of Kharkiv successfully during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.502155310963916, "platformFee": 0.433056287923043, "liquidityFee": 2.598337727538258} | 0 | 1672540231078 | 372.59833772753825 | Keepcalmandchill | 1667399028034 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.5 | 1667399027866 | 1662828911540 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2982772439000558 | heeE7YGEAwSvoyUuShZx | {"NO": 90.26127220133941, "YES": 659.633636813554} | 0 | will-more-than-20-amazon-locations | 540.4709017796092 | Will more than 20 Amazon locations be unionised in the US by 2023? | 1672491600000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.701138957080725 | True | play | NO | public | 1649669492949 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves to yes if more than 10 separate unions working with different United States locations of Amazon have been certified by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.625567950766543, "platformFee": 0.3830287121069183, "liquidityFee": 2.29817227264151} | 0 | 1672538913652 | 182.2981722726415 | Keepcalmandchill | 1672485664222 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.5 | 1672485664070 | 1649730430176 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5971716298419891 | KHSDE5O1oYbrTcOmdk5C | {"NO": 1105.0536495453512, "YES": 714.1174449376492} | 0 | will-more-than-100000-people-die-of | 5959.343553140771 | Will more than 100,000 people die of Covid-19 in China during 2022? | 1675170000000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4704100382570181 | True | play | NO | public | 1649670162071 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves to Yes if more than 100,000 people are reliably estimated to have died of Covid-19 in the People's Republic of China during 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.762827516080494, "platformFee": 2.314102853452326, "liquidityFee": 13.884617120713957} | 0 | 1680826319041 | 937.6206927594485 | Keepcalmandchill | 1681820417283 | 0 | 1 | 66 | 0 | 14 | 58 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601084}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560240}, {"name": "Less Than Zero Covid", "slug": "less-than-zero-covid", "us... | ["china", "medicine", "less-than-zero-covid", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1675169500785 | 1681820413444 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46791589903451203 | fLCfneYf0WiUssRL9fhS | {"NO": 16.119770826590628, "YES": 981.7983995945499} | 0 | will-i-test-positive-for-covid-this | 1311 | Will I test positive for COVID this month? | 1651412490705 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.402228037296654 | True | play | NO | public | 1649672525794 | Tetra | One person in my household has tested positive, will I?
Against: don't leave my room much, have a pack of N95s, triple vaxed
For: One person IN MY HOUSEHOLD HAS IT | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.957570478667105, "platformFee": 0.9929284131111842, "liquidityFee": 5.957570478667105} | 0 | 1651412490705 | 105.95757047866711 | Tetraspace | 1649672525794 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651404670283 | 1650454013993 | 0.014233061039051819 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9KxEgrYY5fiAsWtdesSw | balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft | 4818.678698554459 | Balance of Power in US Congress after 2022 Midterms | 1667883540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.633443958877528 | True | basic | 2fee6cb2ad22 | public | 1649684987346 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as this PredictIt market https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election. There are 4 possible outcomes based on whether Democrats or Republicans control the Hous... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2513210383685616, "platformFee": 0.5628302595921404, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668651551002 | 1900 | BoltonBailey | 1668610808603 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "aa9632c99324", "prob": 0.001368373537444351, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006078348385914356, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.435945864729614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9KxEgrYY5fiAsWtdesSw", "createdTime": 1649684987721, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 2 | 56 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529457863}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473850}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZ... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"] | 1667852251331 | 1668610806893 | False | {"2fee6cb2ad22": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1700184610972346 | 2Wf89yoCdwVOgPVK056j | {"NO": 141.5339841495992, "YES": 550.8609432299577} | 0 | will-an-official-print-copy-of-the | 370.8609432299575 | Will an official print copy of "The Machine in the Ghost" be available by the end of 2023? | 1704067200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1474367215917396 | True | play | NO | public | 1649699910488 | Tetra | MIRI published Map and Territory and How to Actually Change Your Mind, the first two books of Rationality: A-Z, in print in December 2018 ( https://intelligence.org/rationality-ai-zombies/ ). They haven't published the third book in print; will they do so by the end of 2023? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704090838358 | 180 | Tetraspace | 1704090838687 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130480666}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.2 | 1703927304562 | 0.05 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5539705695493358 | Gg6808JAiG7KMt4POUoG | {"NO": 1196.1494346904929, "YES": 22.695004500658722} | 1 | will-the-number-of-applicants-to-th | 1789.1823925769113 | Will the number of applicants to the Atlas Fellowship be greater than 2000? | 1652565540000 | Tqvoptw35yTRS9n6OImHbT17Ih13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9284460284016887 | True | play | YES | public | 1649709639688 | Isaac Clayton | This market resolves to YES if the number of applicants announced when the results are released for the Summer 2022 application cycle is greater than 2000, and NO otherwise. Information about the Atlas Fellowship (run by Open Philanthropy) can be found here: https://www.atlasfellowship.org.
Close date updated to 2022-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.997898479717634, "platformFee": 1.4996497466196066, "liquidityFee": 8.997898479717634} | 0 | 1654555627845 | 106.17850737989649 | slightknack | 1654624943745 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Git-8rymYAz7BiR4N2u_MCs6HdzqYOjyLXk8ghQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Atlas Fellowship", "slug": "atlas-fellowship", "userId": "EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3", "groupId": "sDo7qznieDNNrAaaPvV1", "createdTime": 1674544316359}] | ["atlas-fellowship"] | 0.5 | 1651943885447 | 1654624942998 | 0.9849534353298551 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3427941368649323 | IDYIeTqTcJ0OWrBH3NVs | {"NO": 59.786119682305866, "YES": 458.43506314081924} | 0 | will-the-april-2022-etsy-strike-ach | 694.8802705649399 | Will the April 2022 "Etsy Strike" achieve one or more of its aims? | 1652079600000 | FfLzliE1lMVKx3DQeEo84jJieRt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.168033366918608 | True | play | NO | public | 1649715542022 | Danny O'Brien🤖 | This market will resolve if, by end of the market on May 9th 2022 (4 weeks after the first date of the strike), Etsy's management agrees to:
* Cancel the fee increase.
* Crack down on resellers with a comprehensive plan that is transparent, so sellers can hold Etsy accountable.
* Give ‘Golden’ support tickets to selle... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.465143491825732, "platformFee": 1.5775239153042888, "liquidityFee": 9.465143491825732} | 0 | 1652114406267 | 108.73848027261857 | DannyOBrien | 1652114395742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giey4724bWiZCcfL-l3K94KluaBKfVSKoKYQJawmkibUV4=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1652066459756 | 1652114389427 | 0.06369039943760432 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3997554614657239 | Z1pTUpEy8yaUtpNFYQyv | {"NO": 199.42505317150867, "YES": 38.85893473882305} | 0 | will-sarah-palin-win-the-2022-alask | 466.0658577313276 | Will Sarah Palin win the 2022 Alaska at-large special election? | 1660708740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1383551805283103 | True | play | NO | public | 1649723941748 | David Glidden | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska's_at-large_congressional_district_special_election
Apr 12, 1:20pm: corrected link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.551358425927047, "platformFee": 0.3094890680343646, "liquidityFee": 1.8569344082061878} | 0 | 1662000848651 | 101.85693440820619 | dglid | 1661999432964 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.4 | 1660707900279 | 1661999431264 | 0.773646364228304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19993021953207296 | fvFEL79xNsgHpTwzp3Sm | {"NO": 95.85388993357816, "YES": 120.9651461052384} | 0.15 | what-will-be-the-median-number-of-m | 21 | What will be the median number of markets created per day this week? | 1650254340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.327028781065541 | True | play | MKT | public | 1649725434726 | David Glidden | MM recently changed the cost of creating a market, from variable to a fixed M$100. How might this affect market creation?
This resolves PROB to the median number of markets created per day between Monday, April 11th and Sunday, April 17th according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (Daily Activity > Markets Create... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20912336856961816, "platformFee": 0.034853894761603034, "liquidityFee": 0.20912336856961816} | 0 | 1650417296624 | 100.20912336856962 | dglid | 1649725434726 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1649730909915 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tvKE9nKJMyz6LJVMrUts | which-outing-will-viktor-lindsey-an | 235.45560314927357 | Which outing will Viktor, Lindsey, and I enjoy most this summer? | 1662015660000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.866378580879425 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649738139532 | Ozy Brennan | Relevant details: We live in Oakland and travel by public transit. Viktor is four. We are on a budget and tend to prefer less expensive outings. Viktor is obsessed with vehicles. Lindsey and I enjoy dance, theater, museums, and long walks. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.01822412597094285, "platformFee": 0.004556031492735713, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705149294486 | 480.0000000000001 | ozymandias272 | 1705149294769 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1a1fd4bf3c74", "prob": 0.32823748497992455, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.473895707525553, "userId": "B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50.08765447319926, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tvKE9nKJMyz6LJVMrUts", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16497... | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1658529460644}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 1658501668207 | 1705149289577 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.302134736697653 | yhiXxaePs5JwnbyGe5As | {"NO": 106.07592669206417, "YES": 93.54636771612289} | 0.3292773997406184 | private-question-pi | 62.50360900362452 | Private question pi | 1662015660000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2398255713224717 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649738249532 | Ozy Brennan | This is a private question. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705149208632 | 101.06782554101225 | ozymandias272 | 1705149208907 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.3 | 1661418764773 | 1705149206229 | 0.33 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11997913629923004 | 2rbldgbGljt60UDPX3cZ | {"NO": 96.28132131079697, "YES": 150.9152422225513} | 0 | will-alicorn-experience-an-interrup | 93 | Will Alicorn experience an interruption in nursing as a result of Koios going away for three days. | 1649891132146 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.514363868651701 | True | play | NO | public | 1649744811579 | Mike Blume | Koios is in Yosemite for three days, by far the longest he's ever been away from Alicorn.
If Koios stops nursing, that's a yes. If Alicorn takes domperidone in order to resume nursing, that's a yes. If Koios comes home and has a couple extra long feeds and then everything goes back to normal, that's a no. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8077878861058746, "platformFee": 0.1346313143509791, "liquidityFee": 0.8077878861058746} | 0 | 1649891132146 | 100.80778788610587 | MichaelBlume | 1649744811579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670518213293}] | ["valinor"] | 0.12 | 0.08002026073698926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30672097069341114 | 2JkYcm4sorfLJ4NVgnNe | {"NO": 107.51906106460427, "YES": 96.37595098797266} | 0 | china-to-europe-shipping-times-abov | 111.61417699756089 | China to Europe shipping times above 120 days for the week ending May 1st | 1651528740000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1704995058374097 | True | play | NO | public | 1649771996457 | Magnus Hambleton | As measured by Flexport's FEWB metric. https://www.flexport.com/research/ocean-timeliness-indicator/
Apr 12, 3:59pm: For the week ending April 10th, this metric was at a record 123 days. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0330552675760605, "platformFee": 0.3388425445960101, "liquidityFee": 2.0330552675760605} | 0 | 1651556958277 | 102.03305526757606 | Mag | 1651524337624 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1651524336297 | 0.3304650041857479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10378092236864127 | JN0wuoTFwR4tntTBmVQa | {"NO": 77.60280393970959, "YES": 1214.3772598531805} | 0 | will-i-have-more-than-500-twitter-f | 1282.819301283848 | Will I have more than 500 twitter followers by the 1st of September? | 1662069540000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.066120120363118 | True | play | NO | public | 1649772891935 | Magnus Hambleton | I have had ~200 followers for several years now. https://twitter.com/MagnusHambleton | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.685586978970841, "platformFee": 0.2809311631618069, "liquidityFee": 1.685586978970841} | 0 | 1664045422292 | 101.68558697897083 | Mag | 1662061251560 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1662061250230 | 0.0073455651729271675 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2506593456798294 | TXVVfjuBSdBu80vp2h7r | {"NO": 55.13902826064697, "YES": 1644.5172275425762} | 0 | will-elon-musk-have-owned-more-than | 2637.4767136123337 | Will Elon Musk have owned more than 10% of Twitter's stock at any time before June 1st? | 1654120740000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.205748401921485 | True | play | NO | public | 1649773156688 | Magnus Hambleton | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.199861313208093, "platformFee": 2.866643552201349, "liquidityFee": 17.199861313208093} | 0 | 1654151768570 | 117.19986131320812 | Mag | 1710451925472 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.2 | 1654105845041 | 1649936161634 | 0.01109127556325015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5118994402886561 | NLFwVUVo9IUR9Gq8Sz8Y | {"NO": 264.0887691568133, "YES": 43.74210651275494} | 0.8636074111055521 | ill-convince-john-beshir-that-its-r | 245 | I'll convince John Beshir that it's right to buy YES on a DPM market at 1% that a random day is a Monday. | 1649804610000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0647231169945344 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649777981783 | Gurkenglas | If he doesn't hear me out or already believes this, this resolves N/A.
Close date updated to 2022-04-13 1:03 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6465023377506487, "platformFee": 0.44108372295844145, "liquidityFee": 2.6465023377506487} | 0 | 1649848937761 | 102.64650233775065 | Gurkenglas | 1649777981783 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1649778377055 | 0.8636074111055521 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2RjoM8uYcDcwYjyfq4za | if-manifold-didnt-eliminate-all-tra | 178 | If Manifold didn't eliminate all trading fees, how much does trading increase month over month? | 1651388340000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.862068125955825 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649789660291 | Adam | MM is considering eliminating trading fees. See https://manifold.markets/SG/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading.
David Glidden asked about what would happen in MM did so: https://manifold.markets/dglid/if-manifold-eliminated-all-trading-4f53d011f024
This market will resolve to the month over month change of Trades in ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654054672540 | 379.99999999999994 | Adam | 1654054667842 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "76aa5e00cbf2", "prob": 0.3156167150612296, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.820980085384534, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.14821321714782, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2RjoM8uYcDcwYjyfq4za", "createdTime": 1649789660612, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1654054665571 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.657697610811647 | OyixfESYi09HnyFzo07a | {"NO": 66.89170365396215, "YES": 129.59858417347718} | 0.497920969822059 | were-more-male-fortune-500-ceos-new | 57 | Were more male Fortune 500 CEOs newly appointed in 2021 under 6 foot, than over 6 foot? | 1654037940000 | zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0608248190171885 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649791868495 | DELETE CLUB | In his 2005 book Blink, Malcolm Gladwell found that 58% of male CEOs were 6 foot or over.
Thesis: due to the pandemic, executives/board members of companies rarely met in person. As a result, they were less biased by height as a selection factor for new male CEOs. Consequentially, this new batch of CEOs was shorter th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654079476266 | 101.67529932638305 | DELETECLUB | 1653860198510 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhXaEXsl0aQLd-mwMjrJHnjBLnz2CE5XLk0ErvN=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.66 | 1653860197046 | 0.497920969822059 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18188120358522888 | Xri5tQiDsw7Tc6hQj9X8 | {"NO": 175.85545986907263, "YES": 1052.0321967256598} | 0 | will-any-ukrainian-ground-forces-en | 873.1633447866528 | Will any Ukrainian ground forces enter Crimea before 31 December 2022? | 1672527540000 | 2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5863134057320067 | True | play | NO | public | 1649799502123 | Giovanni | This market resolves to YES if BBC reports any incursion of Ukrainian ground troops into Crimea before 31 December 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.403222324448754, "platformFee": 0.23387038740812569, "liquidityFee": 1.403222324448754} | 0 | 1675498196643 | 261.40322232444873 | Giovanni | 1675498204687 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 7 | 16 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1669073663657}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1669073654636}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "rus... | ["how-it-ends", "russia", "ukraine", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.35 | 1672517945639 | 1675498200693 | False | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6567977859557665 | zftaEf3P23pa0rownpIy | {"NO": 118.14626584905878, "YES": 118.1462658490588} | 1 | will-jamie-move-in-with-mallory-in | 181.8537341509412 | Will Jamie move in with mallory in the next year. | 1678918939797 | 5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7205104746164004 | True | play | YES | public | 1649799602929 | Sapphire Star |
Close date updated to 2023-04-12 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678918939797 | 120 | SapphireStar | 1676691769490 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 1676691769350 | 0.66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7501216332660641 | aiOvpc0VhZIqR7t6cqmy | {"NO": 121.95520095356666, "YES": 94.27352098456872} | 0.7952252025553209 | if-nina-turner-is-the-house-nominee | 22 | If Nina Turner is the House nominee for Ohio's 11th congressional district in the 2022 midterms, will she win the House seat? | 1652873240081 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.691974311475588 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649804218644 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652873240081 | 100.2687942786001 | Tetraspace | 1652873269628 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495031}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.75 | 1652873265653 | 0.7952252025553208 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8449582993643695 | eYyZtIWdzzZKAnpAjIjC | {"NO": 602.6998177562368, "YES": 118.09987891261308} | 1 | if-shontel-brown-is-the-house-nomin | 655.261939639837 | Will Shontel Brown win the OH-11 House seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.1381778032407075 | True | play | YES | public | 1649804248827 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:58pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Shontel Brown is the House nominee for Ohio's 11th congressional district in the 2022 midterms, will she win the House seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Shontel... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7164793895744195, "platformFee": 0.11941323159573658, "liquidityFee": 0.7164793895744195} | 0 | 1668016687674 | 160.71647938957443 | Tetraspace | 1667862017640 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497313}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101199}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.75 | 1667862012744 | 0.9652927129802807 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2203815239598149 | hZYSxwevxzJtxmFB2CcL | {"NO": 112.65192648356559, "YES": 69.03132279657352} | 0 | will-bee-deploy-code-that-uses-stri | 14 | Will Bee deploy code that uses Stripe's PaymentIntents api by Sunday | 1650265140000 | Z86m6wTLUpMrMizAZFQC72Ynjz93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.031641820620861 | True | play | NO | public | 1649817687090 | bethany soule | I will resolve this market to "YES" if I deploy any functional / usable code by Sunday that uses Stripe PaymentIntents. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5635665514128647, "platformFee": 0.0939277585688108, "liquidityFee": 0.5635665514128647} | 0 | 1650389065438 | 100.56356655141286 | bethanysoule | 1649817687090 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixuivUBh-0LMt0Ru5lFvmIXQ8DKcqaleSxPGjchA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1649828592260 | 0.3156788318856175 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4337372254389245 | IXwHPz5puKGgVEwIPlj9 | {"NO": 33.5319966719664, "YES": 654.1295728676306} | 0 | will-hollow-knight-silksong-be-rele | 757.7423938973749 | Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be released before January 1, 2023? | 1672559940000 | CLisWPrtlDSQ4hZrPAE952nXY6I3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.437118349094007 | True | play | NO | public | 1649818558583 | Nathan Showell | This market resolves to "yes" if Hollow Knight: Silksong is available for sale to the public at any time before January 1st, 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.843029077786218, "platformFee": 0.5805230179521922, "liquidityFee": 3.4831381077131534} | 0 | 1672628996041 | 123.48313810771316 | NathanShowell | 1671535460179 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzNIgMQ2OnPw_Tmg2ztYSCfVxJ_iw_sPZ3qZk26=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.5 | 1671535460002 | 1668211870830 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42479280849868567 | mAe5kwKczpfmYL4tfX6I | {"NO": 96.563018047045, "YES": 226.11852544512715} | 0 | will-i-learn-spanish-by-the-end-of | 105.81759870011423 | Will I learn Spanish by the end of the year? | 1669870740000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.181745216920783 | True | play | NO | public | 1649819300524 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if I learn the Spanish language at the end of the year. It resolves to no if I do not learn the Spanish language. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2535274422323435, "platformFee": 0.20892124037205725, "liquidityFee": 1.2535274422323435} | 0 | 1671206605975 | 141.25352744223233 | EnopoletusHarding | 1669864817361 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0.5 | 1669864817146 | 1649826215802 | 0.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7454962597600231 | 8QBrSkATAHTlhMxJNbwa | {"NO": 35.53463611244905, "YES": 160.50087245754528} | 0.39339660698555573 | will-the-number-displayed-in-commun | 304 | Will the number displayed in [Communities>Rat Social>Leaderboards>Your performance>Trading profit] be correct by the end of April? | 1651176444304 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6986883616675175 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649826007343 | Anna | Currently when I look at the Rat Social community "Leaderboards" page, the "Your performance" section tells me that my net trading profit on markets within this community is M$-531 (see a screenshot in #bugs in the Manifold Discord server from earlier today; it was M$-501 at the time). I'm pretty sure this is wrong, bo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.7261675225283435, "platformFee": 0.7876945870880573, "liquidityFee": 4.7261675225283435} | 0 | 1651176444304 | 104.72616752252834 | tcheasdfjkl | 1649826007343 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.75 | 1651176435847 | 0.3933966069855558 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010148073230195027 | YPpFH04P0C7NciPx78YF | {"NO": 121.01278236232686, "YES": 167.04547436630455} | 0 | will-eharding-be-the-administrator | 762.7164110026774 | Will eharding be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023? | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1649828463979 | Jenny | Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th resolves #1. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7569760054468954, "platformFee": 0.12616266757448258, "liquidityFee": 0.7569760054468954} | 0 | 1672607596991 | 120.75697600544689 | Jenny | 1668975779513 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465522}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1662002412995}] | ["acx", "free-money"] | 0.01 | 1668975779358 | 1650821315169 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6463243949720687 | Xyh445aFMEjedIQqtx3X | {"NO": 49.624388523585495, "YES": 154.4705727749456} | 0 | will-the-tsa-extend-the-mask-mandat-b1fc2f5d06d3 | 72 | Will the TSA extend the mask mandate for planes beyond May 3, 2022? | 1650323294279 | NpENjBBhXcOGwkenF06IhIZMGQo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.118983204168992 | True | play | NO | public | 1649875018599 | BestGuess | The TSA's mask mandate for public transportation and transportation hubs currently extends to May 3, 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/us-extends-mask-mandate-for-airplanes-and-transit-by-15-days.html
This market will resolve to YES if the TSA extends the mask mandate beyond May 3, 2022 for planes (regardless of t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7023646944804303, "platformFee": 0.2837274490800717, "liquidityFee": 1.7023646944804303} | 0 | 1650323294279 | 101.70236469448042 | BestGuess | 1649875018599 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.36991073509975914 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ILaqp6E0BjkZQXqqCCmc | who-will-the-next-leader-of-the-uk | 5688.300672530155 | Who will the next leader of the UK Conservative party after Boris Johnson be? | 1662656680811 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.627414143411908 | True | basic | ab3085a1d0ed | public | 1649875220298 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.221063277604628, "platformFee": 0.805265819401157, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662656680811 | 1559.9999999999995 | Tetraspace | 1662652795222 | 0 | 25 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "89c448b62f74", "prob": 0.0006121699338652445, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0010389249183223018, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.6960795724938647, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ILaqp6E0BjkZQXqqCCmc", "createdTime": 1649875220521, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 25 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031750987}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480615}, {"name": "Prime Millennial", "slug": "prime-mille... | ["politics-default", "uk-politics", "prime-millennial"] | 1662652794803 | 1662589931275 | {"ab3085a1d0ed": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
C58P5OgRsaljbtltXENM | im-gonna-pick-a-word | 304.86535038807745 | Im gonna pick a word | 1650513540000 | 5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.770405861363326 | True | play | 1481c35bbe84 | public | 1649883389906 | Sapphire Star | Testing testing 123 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.605385984476902, "platformFee": 2.9013464961192255, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650571252980 | 399.99999999999994 | SapphireStar | 1649883389906 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "780fdfd08d51", "prob": 0.11326439307274971, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.9323657239727208, "userId": "5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.786098016410033, "textFts": "", "contractId": "C58P5OgRsaljbtltXENM", "createdTime": 1649883390234, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1649886343512 | {"1481c35bbe84": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08361738458416794 | SNT3nZARMnuMMhK8qxUW | {"NO": 118.71440109948654, "YES": 20.064660370468616} | 0.35059565041877505 | will-i-find-my-passport-before-my-f | 39 | Will I find my passport before my flight to EA Global tomorrow? | 1649970000000 | rqWva2tYYpWIQz1juS4x82VwxMJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.862044905406009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649895414736 | orange | I'm flying at 5pm tomorrow to London and I can't find my passport. Will I find it before my flight tomorrow?
I've spent about 2 hours searching my apartment (at school), and had someone spend about an hour searching my home (across the country). I plan on spending about 3 more hours searching before giving up.
Apr ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.253928646393992, "platformFee": 0.208988107732332, "liquidityFee": 1.253928646393992} | 0 | 1650000442858 | 101.25392864639399 | orange | 1649895414736 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Forange%2FPmXeIhTAHr.00?alt=media&token=a35c5744-bb1b-42bf-a71c-cef95bbd74b4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | True | 0.08 | 1649924012402 | 0.35059565041877505 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7024926159615076 | wJStHXbxYFZz0Qxkjw9R | {"NO": 278.12598292550587, "YES": 69.42032742939055} | 1 | will-i-finish-my-taxes-on-time-this | 208.3385054463338 | Will I finish my taxes on time this year? | 1650092340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.436160805197182 | True | play | YES | public | 1649896389883 | Austin | I've never missed filing my taxes by April 15th before, but this is also the closest I've come to the deadline. It's the first time I'm considering going for an extension.
I've gotten most of my forms inputted already, but haven't started dealing with my last startup (One Word, an LLC).
See also: http://manifold.mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2307969159295573, "platformFee": 0.37179948598825957, "liquidityFee": 2.2307969159295573} | 0 | 1650831717056 | 102.03118326077762 | Austin | 1649896389883 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1650009808259 | 0.904399255113632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.049995515164690946 | fkgS1Zbi7ZMP61vR8rIi | {"NO": 98.61823725773192, "YES": 133.16107733620126} | 0 | will-any-top-ten-meat-global-proces | 110.68519593671252 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.127791402211777 | True | play | NO | public | 1649898823400 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1995773346692614, "platformFee": 0.009170121516609677, "liquidityFee": 0.05502072909965805} | 0 | 1672794960720 | 100.05502072909965 | MetaculusBot | 1667245333105 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1... | ["animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"] | 0.05 | 1667245332984 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2365987177728546 | q2qznCuhCpgNFe5i0Q1p | {"NO": 138.7699423639275, "YES": 934.3512950691908} | 0.0440048366021174 | will-an-incumbent-traditional-anima | 1108.365732142218 | Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4268752233677633 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649898915069 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674821403267 | 261.0694560817098 | MetaculusBot | 1674791558114 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 16 | [{"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1663707429660}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1663804557596}, {"n... | ["vegan", "cellular-agriculture", "animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"] | 0.58 | 1672544396121 | 1674791551906 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16467937844075173 | nZlUoyquj5EBxZ2T5YXk | {"NO": 183.9075301683806, "YES": 992.9089465688328} | 0 | will-at-least-one-cultivated-meat-p | 1217.7755235401291 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7516098476804935 | True | play | NO | public | 1649898958930 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.048042126135151, "platformFee": 0.1746736876891918, "liquidityFee": 1.048042126135151} | 0 | 1672794949394 | 261.04804212613516 | MetaculusBot | 1672546813162 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1663804551627}, {"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U... | ["cellular-agriculture", "animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"] | 0.36 | 1672546812983 | 1663805083385 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ht0XYKF9M52n739HqNOp | how-many-countries-will-approve-the | 180 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.859640601505026 | True | play | a7458b4ce93c | public | 1649899084414 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/
Acceptable answers: whole numbers | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672794929505 | 260 | MetaculusBot | 1668809225228 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c0da4aad5c7e", "prob": 0.30864197530864196, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.74481630515964, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 80.0683885235576, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Ht0XYKF9M52n739HqNOp", "createdTime": 1649899084612, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1663804562552}, {"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U... | ["cellular-agriculture", "animal-consumption-trends"] | 1668809225072 | {"a7458b4ce93c": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06809292644923225 | QSH4wAIdHanLOflv5swb | {"NO": 263.5601625193301, "YES": 622.672430639326} | 0 | will-a-meat-or-dairy-consumption-ta | 633.380804623179 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.883702577310582 | True | play | NO | public | 1649899133212 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9897018647495145, "platformFee": 0.09921357215223284, "liquidityFee": 0.5952814329133971} | 0 | 1672794907769 | 280.5952814329134 | MetaculusBot | 1672546076587 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1... | ["animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"] | 0.05 | 1672546076406 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5532956741602348 | dS1tuqxrCbLdfJhqQ3bl | {"NO": 293.14686576846134, "YES": 271.01344982775754} | 0.5726082843870082 | will-a-turing-test-for-plantbased-m | 135.61707540304698 | Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023? | 1680321540000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.233557195603545 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1649899224732 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682649215582 | 280.39546214817034 | MetaculusBot | 1682649211375 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 6 | [{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1... | ["animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"] | 0.55 | 1680315596411 | 1682649209163 | 0.57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | YTuaIGLW0qEQBsFRZR2i | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-india-ban-export-of-rice-wheat | 50 | Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023? | 1662838250512 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1649899277944 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8854/indian-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1662838250512 | 100.01704414600928 | MetaculusBot | 1662838353807 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662809115032}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374372095}, {"name"... | ["please-resolve", "metaculus", "india"] | 0.05 | 1660944107815 | 1662838347919 | False | 0.9921613199102759 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nq2LJd1gxD4xRkgS0QWB | what-will-be-the-maximum-weekly-pri | 110 | What will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023? | 1682135940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | d40e64befb58 | public | 1649899399394 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8856/thai-a1-super-rice-max-price/
Rounded to the nearest $50, i.e. "$450", "$500", etc.
Close date updated to 2023-04-21 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686484521439 | 240 | MetaculusBot | 1680079679798 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "729f45e9b33d", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.89406337102493, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.08775330791523, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Nq2LJd1gxD4xRkgS0QWB", "createdTime": 1649899400107, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 11 | 1 | 1680079679618 | {"d40e64befb58": 100} | True |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.