CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

4xp9m1V5H37e6QA0ePQM

what-will-be-the-minimum-weekly-pri

136

What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?

1682135940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.927227141300115

True

play

ea630d72017d

public

1649899527675

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8857/thai-a1-super-rice-min-price/ Rounded to the nearest $50, i.e. "$250", "$300", etc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1686484595218

300

MetaculusBot

1680497686888

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5f057f91f954", "prob": 0.5406574394463668, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.76819234655743, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.27505621763518, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4xp9m1V5H37e6QA0ePQM", "createdTime": 1649899527852, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

11

2

1680497686734

{"ea630d72017d": 100}

True

0.4877729324732029

cXv5u8zejeTHAHQg1Iua

{"NO": 11.080904523944692, "YES": 999.9108910891089}

0

will-pear-get-have-any-contact-with

900

Will Pear get have any contact with us by EOD Friday, without any prompting?

1649989268283

rcZfrkafZ6VFf233dh416GfV9023

cpmm-1

0

4.911718222836672

True

play

NO

public

1649900911490

Daniel Chang

Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1649989268283

100.53465346534654

DanielChang

1649900911490

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwnG93b7--KAcY1DdjiSJ4Q_-ePTDalO3LAT5rC=s96-c

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0.5

0.46055501243405605

6qEWrk0Af7eWupuSWxQm

{"NO": 22.406104954208892, "YES": 1322.035893303773}

0

will-elon-musk-own-more-than-90-of

3227.934376240527

Will Elon Musk own more than 90% of Twitter before June 1st?

1654142340000

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cpmm-1

0

3.8220492040347223

True

play

NO

public

1649943317395

amp!

BINARY

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0

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0

1654151280445

124.13960497195119

ampdot

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443881}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181977318}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1653891619115

False

0.014263247555638424

Rv7e9acw25I3VEIzVG1c

what-will-be-the-first-published-co

454.8823331598829

What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?

2524625940000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

False

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Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone publishes a counterexample Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves to that number. If someone publishes a proof of Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resol...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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Jenny

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ANYONE

[{"id": "819034ffe84e", "prob": 0.11028781346195494, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.1418583670136835, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.41313739362369, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Rv7e9acw25I3VEIzVG1c", "createdTime": 1649951862401, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8897121865...

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[{"name": "Collatz", "slug": "collatz", "groupId": "107f1ed4-390b-4a7e-9b15-67cbe7b56baa", "createdTime": 1703721090497}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1703721101930}]

["collatz", "mathematics"]

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{"NO": 68.41958412584538, "YES": 2417.6733293387633}

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will-elon-musk-take-twitter-private

5008.053660618183

Will Elon Musk take Twitter private by Aug 1 2022?

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cpmm-1

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5.959782049296914

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NO

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1649954497195

Keller

Elon Musk has publically mused about taking Twitter private. This market will resolve yes if Elon Musk, with or without other investors, takes the company private. Close date updated to 2022-08-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.636197240664526, "platformFee": 2.1537482571504625, "liquidityFee": 12.922489542902776}

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112.053418118341

Celer

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[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.1

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{"NO": 97055.25385562054, "YES": 1641.03678523704}

1

will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea

294156.5193436358

Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?

1666921796376

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cpmm-1

0

0.2283830904809392

True

basic

YES

public

1649958511230

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1713.7672365966625, "platformFee": 66.53632418826011, "liquidityFee": 399.21794512956075}

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1666921796376

5260.764670755694

SG

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[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1666921776288

1666922771449

False

0.9902698453840383

0.43878714186318285

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{"NO": 1096.376401992096, "YES": 871.2256861316557}

0.49594482676824136

if-pete-buttigieg-becomes-the-democ

2694.0815428183337

If Pete Buttigieg becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?

1730592000000

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cpmm-1

0.2844974292517948

9.740375771595671

False

basic

public

1649973457065

Tetra

Buttigieg was one of the candidates for the Democratic nomination, winning the Iowa caucus in February though dropping out of the race after the South Carolina primary in March. He now has a postition in Biden's government as the Secretary of Transportation. It is possible that he will run again in 2024. One considera...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.025609907554110856}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.282255934226725, "platformFee": 3.5490087055930974, "liquidityFee": 9.249404285612387}

0

1000

Tetraspace

1718968757031

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

46

0

27

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473780}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580298}]

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.14404857654791808

0.4

1718968753969

1694301118509

0.3554824811744106

ajOToXBJimjx5KkppRcg

{"NO": 15.955472868160413, "YES": 3267.011060579337}

0

will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-739a64a14093

3191

Will total crypto market cap be above $2T on May 16th, according to coinmarketcap?

1652651940000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

4.955921370678319

True

play

NO

public

1649974120404

Tim P

At some random time on May 16th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2102231557253322, "platformFee": 0.5350371926208888, "liquidityFee": 3.2102231557253322}

0

1652709120412

103.21022315572533

TimP

1652650162580

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

7

0

1

0.37

1652650161039

0.002686422293949934

0.011281506128559406

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{"NO": 100.33022563886556, "YES": 81.67935513892199}

0.013821947770280113

how-many-tweets-containing-both-eag

67.32297103472504

How many tweets containing both "#EAGlobal" and "@ManifoldMarkets" will be posted between April 15th and April 17th?

1650236340000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

10.369447884414036

True

play

MKT

public

1649983482133

David Glidden

This market will resolve PROB to the number of tweets posted on April 15th, April 16th, and April 17th, 2022 BST (GMT+1) containing both "#EAGlobal" and "@ManifoldMarkets". Resolving a market PROB means that the market will resolve at a particular % between 0-100%, rather than simply either YES (100%) or NO (0%). As ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.24609025392612918, "platformFee": 0.04101504232102154, "liquidityFee": 0.24609025392612918}

0

1650242816615

100.24573650720275

dglid

1649983482133

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

3

0

1

0.01

1650227895071

0.013821947770280113

0.9360267128958891

uGNaQHL6VRCU5krzdkeo

{"NO": 8243.950040349195, "YES": 527.4025684589607}

1

will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte

27400.12589528538

Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?

1667420531034

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.5748673148794747

True

play

YES

public

1649983950409

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10621/elon-musk-twitter-ceo-before-2025/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 43.52271008269405, "platformFee": 4.569867842778518, "liquidityFee": 27.41920705667111}

0

1667420531034

784.1935262387506

MetaculusBot

1710451955898

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

0

96

0

https://firebasestorage.…eaa-3a456074cdda

75

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b798...

["technology-default", "metaculus", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"]

0.2

1667395485171

1667259962333

False

0.9956466603343849

0.2831579964909356

LgARSOV8k4lC15S3Ad0Z

{"NO": 152.98122475110867, "YES": 1902.9495704956312}

0

by-april-2023-will-china-approve-cu

5606.6413141831445

By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?

1680321540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

1.8478400961890111

True

play

NO

public

1649984156231

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5682207632161687, "platformFee": 0.09470346053602811, "liquidityFee": 0.5682207632161687}

0

1682649153758

340.5682207632162

MetaculusBot

1682649153309

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

0

18

0

6

7

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560368}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "mjh6J1GJkhCZ99FWuMv2", "createdTime": 1663804546327}, {"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug":...

["china", "cellular-agriculture", "animal-consumption-trends", "metaculus"]

0.48

1680321500436

1682649150526

0.03

qXQv0L7to26Sz2x7YuQX

what-will-be-the-minimum-weekly-pri-e783f1407e8c

115

What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?

1682135940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.974821181696528

True

play

f7eaf18961f7

public

1649984248966

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8866/us-gulf-yellow-soybean-min-price/ Resolves rounded to the nearest $50, i.e. "$450", "$500", etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1686961452375

240

MetaculusBot

1680497699432

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2b3d6403de14", "prob": 0.7561436672967864, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 103.05769398805789, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.236106311148674, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qXQv0L7to26Sz2x7YuQX", "createdTime": 1649984249157, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

12

1

1680497699289

{"f7eaf18961f7": 100}

True

0.10706774758689826

ERscp1aSXyZNhINcnF6x

{"NO": 162.74139512786084, "YES": 979.9968920811382}

0

will-vietnam-ban-export-of-rice-bef

782.0031079188616

Will Vietnam ban export of rice before April 2023?

1680321540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

4.582690813123424

True

play

NO

public

1649984314532

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-rice/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682987762799

200

MetaculusBot

1680303939219

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

6

0

7

1

0.15

1680303939101

0.02

0.3642340366193461

MI2E4HkHVj5AijlbCLN1

{"NO": 114.55619994117833, "YES": 130}

0.33547995986430684

in-the-2022-ea-giving-tuesday-what

10

In the 2022 EA Giving Tuesday, what will be the amount of matched funds sent by Facebook as a percentage of the amount donated?

1675141140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.62022371638134

True

play

CANCEL

public

1649984649537

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8685/-of-matched-2022-ea-giving-tuesday-funds/ Resolves PROB to the nearest whole percent.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681649019183

120

MetaculusBot

1675135439546

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

0

16

2

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104257829}]

["internet"]

0.37

1675135439452

0.34

nHSEh4qsVyXebAB0H1SX

in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-man-0b318d1bb596

193.26667999466935

In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?

1677560340000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.876702537033039

True

play

6e1151fb4acb

public

1649984772611

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10191/p4a-2023-ea-videos/ Resolves rounded to the nearest 10, i.e. acceptable answers may be "60", "70", etc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678017980585

380

MetaculusBot

1665928261687

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2d4dad97c66c", "prob": 0.35951223021582734, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.757665037792997, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.543839403741025, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nHSEh4qsVyXebAB0H1SX", "createdTime": 1649984772778, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

2

[{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928076990}]

["project-for-awesome"]

1665928261527

{"6e1151fb4acb": 100}

True

NywNI8IgcKq38ZF5Xt3X

in-project-for-awesome-2023-how-muc-1557d10ba6be

1036.4423355968179

In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?

1702333781966

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6761852480529305

True

play

37f2bcc08b38

public

1649985101498

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10210/p4a-2023-grants-to-ea-charities/ Resolves rounded to the nearest $50k, i.e. "$100k", "$150k", etc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702333781966

520

MetaculusBot

1694778039398

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d1bbabb34e7e", "prob": 0.015879726526145384, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.19595272699644684, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.143852160311777, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NywNI8IgcKq38ZF5Xt3X", "resolverId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "createdTime": 16...

4

1

[{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297579}]

["project-for-awesome"]

1694778038935

1694772886617

{"37f2bcc08b38": 100}

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

True

0.2990808149917656

J9XU2hyUfwuYuWr3PP2N

{"NO": 190.2336271747661, "YES": 1542.2738597437638}

0.050000000000000135

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Context: VL (vluzko on Github) has this amazing calibration chart for all Manifold markets, generated with Python code: https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python I suggested checking out Streamlit, which has a Python library that turns arbitrary scripts into full web apps in a handful of lines of code. (Note: ...

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["politics-default", "uk-politics", "global-macro", "prime-millennial"]

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1662637441666

{"2e12fd4e756f": 100}

True

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m2bwPC3nDaC31Ko6qvoD

{"NO": 224.384955773735, "YES": 3693.735272030781}

0

will-i-declare-any-plantbased-anima

8061.245576638423

Will I declare any plant-based animal-imitating product newly "there" before the end of 2023?

1704095940000

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0.2812084911973613

0.8725415122445015

True

play

NO

public

1649990149008

Alicorn

I currently think vegan mayonnaise is "there", in the sense that I'm not aware of any situation in which I would instead purchase normal mayonnaise for culinary reasons (though I might if I was accommodating another person's allergy, availability was limited, I was on a budget, etc.) Fake chicken nuggets (specifically...

BINARY

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0

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1704322607434

828.4313701810527

Alicorn

1704322785251

3.3

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[{"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1663707429657}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859834478}]

["vegan", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1704087830024

1704322783547

0.05

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

0.5137497901721311

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{"NO": 347.7703128383216, "YES": 40.13141082765662}

1

will-manifolds-comments-still-be-or

404.26495159801857

Will Manifold's comments still be ordered newest-first by market close?

1651215540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.063507353543972

True

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YES

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1649999425584

Austin

Up until a week ago, we showed comments by oldest-first, such that reading from top to bottom gave you a chat transcript, ala Discord/Twitter thread. We've since switched to newest-first, to surface the most relevant information when you check in on a market you've seen before. It's what Metaculus uses, for example. B...

BINARY

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1652931071811

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Austin

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0

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0.9298618261076317

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{"NO": 56.703353567326786, "YES": 104.95656400808758}

1

will-ups-deliver-my-passport-in-tim

5

Will UPS deliver my passport in time for me to catch my flight tomorrow?

1650027531503

rqWva2tYYpWIQz1juS4x82VwxMJ2

cpmm-1

0

8.35535634706939

True

play

YES

public

1650001260794

orange

My passport was shipped from a friend to me (a few thousand miles) on Thursday using UPS "Next Day Air Early", which gives an expected delivery time of 8:00 AM. I need my passport by 2:30 PM tomorrow in order to catch my flight. This question will resolve positively if I receive my passport by 2:30 PM CT on April 1...

BINARY

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1650027531503

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orange

1650001260794

0

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will-matthew-and-tamay-win-their-be

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Will Matthew and Tamay win their bet on longer AI timelines by 2026?

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cpmm-1

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1650001416775

Austin

From https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3p8mxE5dHYDZNxCm/a-concrete-bet-offer-to-those-with-short-ai-timelines @MatthewBarnett and Tamay believe that AI timelines are longer than expected. Specifically, they were offering "1:1 odds that no more than one of the following events will occur by 2026-01-01: - A model/ensem...

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Austin

1712191595636

0

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[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587474}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1669932247701}]

["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"]

0.5

1712191592368

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{"NO": 899.1785891207315, "YES": 2877.353046648727}

0.01874803557455526

will-matthew-and-tamay-win-their-be-592330b09be8

2305.645298342399

Will Matthew and Tamay win their bet on longer AI timelines by 2030?

1893484740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0.41519352430015005

10.586609649448985

False

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1650001515983

Austin

From https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3p8mxE5dHYDZNxCm/a-concrete-bet-offer-to-those-with-short-ai-timelines @MatthewBarnett and Tamay believe that AI timelines are longer than expected. Specifically, they were offering "3:1 odds (in our favor) that no more than one of the following events will occur by 2030-01-01: ...

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.7184265924071038, "platformFee": 0.2411229905007328, "liquidityFee": 0.934423329228006}

0

1000

Austin

1713852213024

2.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

24

0

12

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529586894}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670431424311}]

["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"]

0.17816913429793413

0.25

1713852209182

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0.6672674225366353

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{"NO": 55.24769831265432, "YES": 151.64542700937795}

0

will-the-driveway-demolition-crew-s

486

Will the driveway demolition crew show up today?

1650071534445

2xl1KNUcucVtGNAAGiegkuLN6dm2

cpmm-1

0

3.0705688159399074

True

play

NO

public

1650040675154

Matthew Monahan

They have pushed off and rescheduled 4 times, and that last 2 times were very adamant that "this was THE time". This current time they are even more adamant, with the manager promising to personally be there.

BINARY

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1650071534445

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MatthewMonahan

1650040675154

0

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{"NO": 101.24498565858227, "YES": 817.3668045874592}

0

will-president-biden-resign-before

1288.4053421384788

Will President Biden resign before the end of 2022.

1672536553212

G3S3nhcGWhPU3WEtlUYbAH4tv7f1

cpmm-1

0

3.546362756042541

True

play

NO

public

1650041527939

AGG

BINARY

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1672536553212

187.0048071326019

AGG

1671494690699

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ef-7839c1d6b8d0

33

0

32

[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856956}]

["the-life-of-biden"]

0.5

1671494690489

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{"NO": 181.37410626658126, "YES": 2064.3107194251047}

0

will-elon-musk-smoke-weed-again-bef

3464.484151268526

Will Elon Musk smoke weed again before 4:20pm 4/20/2024

1713655200000

UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1

cpmm-1

0.6524132006960577

10.32490186900438

True

play

NO

public

1650045482394

Jonathan Ray

Close date updated to 2024-04-20 4:20 pm

BINARY

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242.42238692825703

JonathanRay

1713655200000

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660

17

0

1

8

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.16405516576953583

0.2

1713641863220

1713642619117

0.01

UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1

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{"NO": 112.0123995461853, "YES": 0.08768655118654908}

1

can-we-draw-an-animal-with-the-grap

104.56926685141458

Can we draw an animal with the graph?

1650465975164

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

9.31542519389794

True

play

YES

public

1650049390894

Ian Philips

This market resolves to yes if the probability over time graph looks like an animal, otherwise no. Close date updated to 2022-04-22 11:59 pm Apr 15, 1:11pm: no coordinating allowed off platform

BINARY

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1650049390894

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{"NO": 13130.64593051885, "YES": 105.26368147240467}

1

will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-befor

34638.0312372622

Will Hunter Biden be indicted before Nov 5, 2024?

1694802206707

kxVFFkiufTN6rqivB2h0dHnJG7v1

cpmm-1

0.4453840113904994

1.9530712305718603

True

basic

YES

public

1650060091447

dadonk

Vox: What we know about the Hunter Biden Investigation https://www.vox.com/23012186/hunter-biden-investigation-tax-fara "The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and the Associated Press have all published stories in recent weeks with a similar theme: the investigation, run by the US attorney’s...

BINARY

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1694802206707

1120.0066246507304

dadonk

1694802217809

1.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6PYzyjuxUZjEr4q63s5Ozxgkd9Rti-RfjPTsV=s96-c

71

0

17

[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856965}]

["the-life-of-biden"]

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0.4

1694763478271

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1

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{"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770496}

1

will-the-new-driveway-contractors-s

10

Will the new driveway contractors show up tomorrow!? (4/14/22)

1650129617958

2xl1KNUcucVtGNAAGiegkuLN6dm2

cpmm-1

0

2.765773451990329

True

play

YES

public

1650071602300

Matthew Monahan

After the last manifold markets failed I found new contractors who claim they can do it tomorrow first thing! Will it get done!? Apr 16, 11:19am: Edit: Title should have said: Will the new driveway contractors show up tomorrow!? (4/16/22)

BINARY

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MatthewMonahan

1650071602300

0

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{"NO": 72.13079977434893, "YES": 659.4507417623697}

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will-anyone-outbid-elon-musk-to-buy

4705.148881934204

Will anyone outbid Elon musk to buy twitter and get approved by twitter's board before the poison pill expires?

1667067162110

UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1

cpmm-1

0

3.8811734317541537

True

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NO

public

1650152563748

Jonathan Ray

Close date updated to 2023-04-14 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-04-14 5:00 pm Close date updated to 2023-04-14 11:59 pm

BINARY

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JonathanRay

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0

https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660

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42

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.07

1664719975545

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False

0.022831531383824856

0.9097124110555949

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{"NO": 1.768624945088126, "YES": 41.443512603956066}

0

will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr-7ebdb347162f

415.1081949134061

Will I donate $10 to GiveWell in April

1651388340000

nfL8ndwHfKT8l9wPkzK0nFsIWr52

cpmm-1

0

8.904008309362421

True

play

NO

public

1650169503869

Oleg S

I will donate $10 to GiveWell foundation in April if I get more $M by betting on this question than I could get by buying M$ for $10. This donation is on top of any other donation I might make If you want to indirectly donate your $M to GiveWell, buy NO.

BINARY

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100.57843917559832

OlegStroganov

1650169503869

0

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{"NO": 897.8158456503237, "YES": 2351.678110726762}

0.03748051392038991

will-world-war-3-have-begun-by-2025

14468.585323936075

Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025?

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cpmm-1

0

10.366018427427816

False

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1650171903033

Lars Doucet

Resolves if, before 2025, it becomes general consensus that a third world war has begun. "World War 3" or "The Third World War" has to be the common popular term people are using to refer to it, especially e.g. world leaders, wikipedia page, etc. And it can't just be like, a one-off article in VOX or something, it has ...

BINARY

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0

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1000

LarsDoucet

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0

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111

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470763}, {"name": "ww3", "slug": "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "groupId": "29708c7c-1502-4abd-8450-7fe46c2babf2", "createdTime": 1708471348723}]

["politics-default", "ww3-0de6f68758b8"]

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{"NO": 31.97094775758523, "YES": 1116.0795128478105}

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1020

Will Team Cherry set a release date/release window for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of May?

1654037940000

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cpmm-1

0

4.304329828587229

True

play

NO

public

1650193028780

Angola Maldives

This market resolves to YES if Team Cherry either set a release date, or officially forecast a release window (eg. 'Q3 2022') for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of May. If they release it without prior announcement in April or May it also resolves to YES, since releasing it sets the current date as the release date...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.4332238152364694, "platformFee": 0.5722039692060783, "liquidityFee": 3.4332238152364694}

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1654449277828

103.43322381523645

AngolaMaldives

1654014139393

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c

7

0

1

0.35

1654014139233

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0.8338208378089932

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{"NO": 546.3681939772692, "YES": 87.80392838545113}

1

will-mackenzie-scott-have-a-net-wor

432.2231575047425

Will MacKenzie Scott have a net worth of over $2 billion by January 1, 2023?

1672531200000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

4.743539035922506

True

play

YES

public

1650227267543

Tetra

Scott currently has a net worth of $45.4B. She's notably giving away a lot of money quickly, donating $5.8B in 2020 and another $2.74B in 2021. This resolves by the figure given in Scott's profile on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/profile/mackenzie-scott/

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Will the pandemic still be "a big deal" by the time of Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo awards?

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David Glidden

At minute 1:09:05 of the April 5th, 2022 episode of Star Spangled Gamblers (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/welcome-to-alabama-where-people-dont-care-about-trump/id1437934639?i=1000556265085), host @keendawg asks guest @jipkin whether the pandemic will still be "a big deal" by the time the Star Spangled Gamblers ...

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Who will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Rookie of the Year?

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David Glidden

The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Who will win the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Rookie of the Year? New prediction market Kalshi won in 2022. If there is no Gold...

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Who will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Shit Poster?

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David Glidden

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Which market will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Biggest Rules Cuck?

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David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Who will win the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Worst Rules...

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140.14495240448855

Rachel will finish paper editing her video project before next monday (April 25)

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1650236865864

Sinclair Chen

semi private question. won't explain.

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What will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Day of Trading?

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David Glidden

The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Who will win the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Day of Trading? January 6th, 2021 won in 2022. If there is no Golden Modelo ...

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Which market will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Market?

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David Glidden

The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Which market will win the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Market? Polymarket's Kanye West Donda market won in 2022. If there ...

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Who will receive the Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Lifetime of Service to Political Gambling?

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David Glidden

The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Who will receive the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Lifetime of Service to Political Gambling? SSG's Keendawg won received the awa...

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Who will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Trader of the Year?

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1650239817024

David Glidden

The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/03/27/the-golden-modelos-2022 Who will win the 2023 Golden Modelo award for Trader of the Year? Lance Uppercut won the award in 2022. If there is no Golden M...

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1676377298633

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Will I find my phone in my jacket's 4th pocket?

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1650251500251

Bionic

My jacket has 4 identical pockets, one of which contains my phone. Before searching in any of my jacket's pockets, I was *absolutely certain* that there was an exactly 80% chance that my phone was in one of my jacket pockets (thus a 20% chance it was elsewhere). After randomly searching in 3 of my jacket's pockets, I s...

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1651468679649

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BionicD0LPH1N

1650251500251

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will-the-japanese-yen-jpy-weaken-be

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Will the Japanese Yen (JPY) weaken beyond its lowest 21st century level against the US dollar (USD) by June 1, 2022?

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1650253459653

Flawless Train

This market resolves to yes if 1 US Dollar (USD) closes higher than 134.77 Japanese Yen (JPY) on any day up to June 1, 2022 according to https://fred.stlouisfed.org. (For historical context: https://www.macrotrends.net/2550/dollar-yen-exchange-rate-historical-chart) May 9, 10:46pm: 130.75 now ... only 3 yen to go! Ma...

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FlawlessTrain

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418662}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571622}]

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will-2022-be-a-record-year-for-fore

451.49070053508416

Will 2022 be a record year for forest fires (measured by hectares burned) in Portugal?

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3.3536803275453955

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1650277492852

Matthew Carrozo

This market resolves to yes if, two weeks after closing, data shows that more hectares burned in forest fires across Portugal than in any previous calendar year. Apr 18, 11:24am: The market will resolve if the condition of a record number of hectares burned becomes known before the last day of 2022.

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102.53523574952531

carrozo

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Will Victoria 3 be released by November 1st, 2022?

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6.280000518699085

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1650285030289

zzq

This market resolves to YES if Victoria 3 by Paradox Interactive is available on Steam as of November 1st, 2022.

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[{"name": "Paradox Interactive", "slug": "paradox-interactive", "userId": "e7vQaQHWrcRixDLP03bqnfAU7wa2", "groupId": "DaLEsm5lBFjkVpIWHa10", "createdTime": 1662791873187}]

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will-there-be-record-high-interest

41.82261196855088

Will there be record high interest in the Guillotine Emoji in 2022?

1672531140000

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2.786873058292598

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1650287635184

Matthew Carrozo

In 2020, I submitted an application the Unicode Consortium for the inclusion of a new emoji character — the Guillotine. It was denied, but the proposal was covered in the press by Motherboard/Vice and others, occasionally gets re-upped on Twitter, and is (one of) the first results on the search engine of your choice,...

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carrozo

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[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133010}]

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Will Filnland join NATO until the end of 2022?

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1650290715507

Pedro Monteiro

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

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PedroMonteiro

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4375.004251329962

Will so much as a single banned poster start a market here on whether their appeal to Scott was worth their time?

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1650301589492

Enopoletus Harding

I know for a fact I won't do it. Question is if anyone else will. See this post: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-220?s=r Market resolves to yes if a single banned poster creates such a market, to no if nobody does. Note: the actual banned poster must make the market for this to resolve yes; nobody e...

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EnopoletusHarding

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will-austin-shaw-httpstwittercomrep

379.92493845370427

Will Austin Shaw (https://twitter.com/replicationer) - who works for Skyline Celestial - become a Thiel Fellow in the next 6 years?

1861948800000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650319362201

Stochastic Cockatoo

This market resolves to YES if Austin Shaw becomes a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2028.

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StochasticParrot

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will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar

3943830.0688507543

Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?

1727766000000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0.24475531870764639

0.30645958433271614

False

basic

public

1650320437629

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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will-henry-kissinger-become-a-cente

2996.670736449624

Will Henry Kissinger become a centenarian?

1685191213859

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

3.156549088202026

True

play

YES

public

1650320606523

Stochastic Cockatoo

if Kissinger is still alive in 2023

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StochasticParrot

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will-washington-state-decriminalize

226.3160638287579

Will Washington state decriminalize ALL psychedelics by 2026?

1798794060000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

9.747207618388568

False

basic

public

1650320697574

Stochastic Cockatoo

if WA decriminalizes all psychedelics, or if 2CB is decriminalizaed there like Oregon

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StochasticParrot

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will-aubrey-de-grey-be-reinstated-i

214.83599509045573

Will Aubrey de Grey be re-instated in SOME role by SENS by 2025?

1767294060000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

1.463645589618569e-15

9.618056412572567

False

basic

public

1650320834478

Stochastic Cockatoo

If Aubrey de Grey has some role that requires him to come into the office (and is unbanned from the office) as a formal employee

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StochasticParrot

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will-chen-ningyang-become-a-centena

166

Will Chen Ning-Yang become a centenarian?

1663826992861

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

3.1128966904342565

True

play

YES

public

1650320894182

Stochastic Cockatoo

If Chen Ning Yang makes it to October 2022

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StochasticParrot

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will-age-of-empires-2-release-an-ex

409.19051516177365

Will Age of Empires 2 (AOE2) release an expansion that includes EITHER the Armenians or Georgians (or both) by 2025?

1697492864964

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

2.9773244865855104

True

play

YES

public

1650321046547

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves to YES if AOE2 releases an expansion including thje Armenians or Georgians by 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 24, 3:09pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Age of Empires 2 release an expansion t...

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StochasticParrot

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["gaming", "strategy-games"]

0.7

1697239954877

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0.94

0.29154170700886683

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0.28263801568314506

will-lada-nuzhna-have-a-higher-goog

108.30336993079729

Will Lada Nuzhna have a higher google search volume than Laura Deming by 2030?

1946016060000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650321335118

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

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StochasticParrot

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0

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0

4

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will-jose-luis-ricon-get-married-an

557.2099483785456

Will Jose Luis Ricon get married AND create a new babby (#RiconBabby) by 2035?

2082790860000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650321668177

Stochastic Cockatoo

This market resolves YES if jose luis ricon pops out a BABBUY sometime by 2035, whether out of wedlock or not

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StochasticParrot

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["ancient-markets"]

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will-lada-nuzhna-have-taken-over-1

35.87405588498265

Will Lada Nuzhna have taken over 1 gram of rapamycin (cumulatively) by the beginning of 2027?

1714961086346

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1650322712245

Stochastic Cockatoo

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StochasticParrot

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0.58

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

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0.22430782922726583

will-chen-ning-yang-outlive-tsung-d

90

Will Chen Ning Yang outlive Tsung Dao Lee?

1830330060000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650322955314

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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120

StochasticParrot

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{"NO": 214.76686980084153, "YES": 159.49507632598002}

0.64

will-heavengames-heavengamescom-sti

185.34376698037707

Will HeavenGames (heavengames.com) still exist as a site in 2030?

1925024460000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323114901

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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181.7434479505703

StochasticParrot

1686735722406

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0

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["ancient-markets"]

0.09413088972945793

0.5

1686735721144

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0.3907364899585514

will-aubrey-de-grey-be-dead-before

120.33915634510554

Will Aubrey de Grey be dead before his 80th birthday?

2335251660000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323190217

Stochastic Cockatoo

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StochasticParrot

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0

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0.58

1681397568462

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0.8299999999999998

will-massachusetts-decriminalize-ps

394.8792163106325

Will Massachusetts decriminalize psilocybin before 2026?

1798794060000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323264223

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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StochasticParrot

1704551882323

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0.6774727792453282

will-boston-have-a-year-warmer-than

30.00000000000002

Will Boston have a year warmer than 56F by 2030?

1925024460000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

1.154321938967493e-15

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323346045

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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140

StochasticParrot

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1

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0.24970658504709128

will-napoleons-corpse-be-exhumed-an

29.3334609635409

Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed *and* still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?

2556176460000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323413364

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

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140.0178214047894

StochasticParrot

1687249412517

0

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0

2

0.08513186396293937

0.3

1687249412334

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will-austin-shaw-httpstwittercomrep-96bb7a59c330

158.05800906699292

Will Austin Shaw (https://twitter.com/replicationer ) turn into a wizard? (virgin at 30 years old)

2114413260000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323521058

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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161.01123595505618

StochasticParrot

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0

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5

0

5

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["ancient-markets"]

0.5

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0.5447322636767828

will-there-be-a-marriage-between-a

20.00000000000002

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

1925024460000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1650323561036

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

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120.27149321266968

StochasticParrot

1684212341396

0

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3

0

2

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736804233}]

["ancient-markets"]

0.5

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will-at-least-one-new-thiel-fellow

409.90739476352815

Will at least one new Thiel Fellow from the fellows cohort of 2022 come from The Knowledge Society? (tks.world)

1704099660000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

3.2718085397340584

True

play

YES

public

1650323611137

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

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StochasticParrot

1705267402130

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

4

0

3

2

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736804805}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131102433}]

["ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1701756498961

1705267380234

0.95

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6862384152834954

sQB24F5gaPUZ5WG99oxD

{"NO": 58.14086566386338, "YES": 179.23855321432052}

1

will-manifold-onboard-at-least-3-fu

1023.1425264638523

Will Manifold onboard at least 3 full-time employees before July 2022?

1656651540000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.871131015856033

True

play

YES

public

1650335160447

SG

Our job board: https://bit.ly/manifold-jobs

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1656684872959

111.89032888268784

SG

1656256349641

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

17

0

1

0.7

1656256348258

1651272961169

0.4150184975213864

0.03389905291102849

0FMVVEzmsXbw62BHFl9x

{"NO": 218.2896576003609, "YES": 3071.9762481181397}

0

will-the-wolfram-physics-project-cl

2871.093959805461

Will the Wolfram Physics Project claim to have created a system which implements the Standard Model on or before 18 April, 2023?

1682492340000

9kNBnUpgtSQPwCWn08pvmkNgMG43

cpmm-1

0

10.424523853568395

True

play

NO

public

1650339351079

Martin Chase

This market resolves to yes if the official website (https://www.wolframphysics.org/) publishes such a claim on or before 18 April, 2023, and that claim remains published for a week.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.23892931847383103, "platformFee": 0.008326450497007058, "liquidityFee": 0.04995870298204235}

0

1682559488840

240.04995870298205

MartinChase

1682453109368

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBeL9nG6e1QpPTBAQXioR4E7nCikBB8N6KZANw2rc=s96-c

1

9

0

1

2

[]

0.05

1682453109230

0

0.26177182442436103

K0l2R42qIKjkE8WEZsJv

{"NO": 1210.9760491317847, "YES": 0.12722854923325144}

1

communal-game-can-the-dog-get-the-b

1704.5115550321916

Communal Game: Can the dog get the bone?

1650922648268

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

6.201857077640943

True

play

YES

public

1650344140307

Undox

Resolves YES if the dog can get to the bone in this picture: https://ibb.co/b1kxf48. To move the dog, bet YES or NO. The amount you bet, divided by 10, floored is the number of squares you move. E.g. 45 -> 4.5 -> 4 squares moved. You cannot move outside the grid area shown, if you get to the edge you go that far but no...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.797274976482246, "platformFee": 1.9662124960803746, "liquidityFee": 11.797274976482246}

0

1650922648268

108.65413437037114

Undox

1650344140307

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

7

0

0.13

1651007860790

0.49767899837726837

RkW133sRiTueYzb5MaiG

how-will-loans-be-implemented-on-ju

3018.3621476213852

How will loans be implemented on June 1st?

1654059540000

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6341098388102

True

basic

eb2a45dfa8b5

public

1650346231543

James

Manifold Markets recently removed per-market loans — a feature that let you bet up to M$ 20 in every market through a loan that you pay back when the market resolves. Will we bring loans back by June 1st, and if so, how? I will award partial credit to earlier answers that were close, and the most accurate answer.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 20.932719456343584, "platformFee": 5.233179864085896, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654098384651

1640.0000000000005

JamesGrugett

1654059441447

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

33

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "53afb70633af", "prob": 0.0014706368594887883, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.003994130265743742, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.7119246500728313, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RkW133sRiTueYzb5MaiG", "createdTime": 1650346231814, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

1

1654059441153

1653756717066

{"eb2a45dfa8b5": 100}

True

0.5443699141360046

wjBxYiMysKs5nIfCg6zh

{"NO": 300.6545759790093, "YES": 52.17747127998652}

1

will-manifold-markets-have-more-dau

163.0429482905701

Will Manifold Markets have more DAUs than FUTUUR on Jan 1 2023

1672646340000

AGbWKY589IX2exZpit7o4GIxPYn2

cpmm-1

0

2.876734575802739

True

play

YES

public

1650348381247

Solomon Sia

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Manifold Analytics shows more users than FUTUUR analytics. It's a wash if both platforms no longer exist on Jan 1 2023.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.072496709029969, "platformFee": 0.3454161181716615, "liquidityFee": 2.072496709029969}

0

1672717958257

142.07249670902996

SolomonSia

1672717958116

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg4WoZy9dmB-3k8mi6fYQsxDYjUqOVQEr1dp2Ag=s96-c

8

0

1

8

0.3

1672625218272

1672717955038

0.87

rh10VVlGg0EBfXYQp1Ex

how-many-countries-will-default-dur

289

How many countries will default during 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.820336674675086

True

play

21b0e41beb30

public

1650363172035

Keepcalmandchill

The answer closest to the number of countries in some kind of default during 2022 will win.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672540472075

380

Keepcalmandchill

1672482797062

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8ebdf7a1a4f0", "prob": 0.20850274181105483, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.84174950373636, "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.748565291133595, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rh10VVlGg0EBfXYQp1Ex", "createdTime": 1650363172333, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

4

1672482796934

{"21b0e41beb30": 100}

True

0.3500235794301218

1sPWurzPxb3TGPMjXt7M

{"NO": 97.72682100994581, "YES": 107.30936460830736}

0

will-i-take-my-offer-at-mckinsey

25.838733523861606

Will I take my offer at McKinsey?

1672617540000

YijiG6QeVjUY2DYNZR0QcNQDYv62

cpmm-1

0

3.0264304178844936

True

play

NO

public

1650363377002

Jonathan

Previously interned there, going to work for some early-stage startups beforehand. I thought the people were smart but thought I didn't gain many skills there. Alternatives are working in generalist roles or founding.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4897350571075402, "platformFee": 0.08162250951792337, "liquidityFee": 0.4897350571075402}

0

1672879560647

100.48973505710755

JonathanL

1667245184560

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw_UqBwaD96L53fpSjTMbFoy9-ShX4dmHyalp9n=s96-c

4

0

1

4

0.35

1667245184377

1650404218417

0.33

VrhpF5c7RFm1u0T1S3L4

what-will-be-the-next-nato-member-s

15942.476686341886

What will be the next NATO member state?

1681606497064

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.619181923229287

True

play

efe1454d28ad

public

1650363579532

Keepcalmandchill

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5651865921340615, "platformFee": 0.8912966480335154, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681606497064

2000.0000000000023

Keepcalmandchill

1681574512290

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

47

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bb3323872b44", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.1767294311780887e-05, "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5176211758234971, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VrhpF5c7RFm1u0T1S3L4", "createdTime": 1650363579894, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month"...

37

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418078}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664057597971}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId"...

["world-default", "nato", "ukrainerussia-war"]

1681574512032

1681221092571

False

{"efe1454d28ad": 100}

True

0.6500161237916106

ArNkPyxkajN2TzwTA6u0

{"NO": 114.67987400410637, "YES": 93.17615303525369}

1

will-andrew-clauson-retain-the-titl

15

Will Andrew Clauson retain the title "Mayor of Palo Alto"?

1655755380000

s3ksA5chttgb3NKRb1WGAabpeWB2

cpmm-1

0

3.047866008795315

True

play

YES

public

1650397788721

C.J. Jameson

Andrew Clauson is a well-established businessman and investor for the Palo Alto community. He's the incumbent but may be unseated if his 4x multiplier investments don't pan out. We'll see...! Jun 20, 2:27pm:

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4034063477159006, "platformFee": 0.01665607036444915, "liquidityFee": 0.09993642218669489}

0

1655760466928

100.0999364221867

cjcjameson

1655409659823

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiTS2mu6C2MNRkuBtZn1HUISWfNmw8Y1ofYovqLn3g=s96-c

2

0

1

0.65

1655409659639

0.6956700072149166

0.18625406123109198

NU4ShKZQ4Ck11zKUT0fU

{"NO": 76.60395498523961, "YES": 748.7414637174015}

0

will-i-have-3k-m-in-total-value-by

706.6449817680564

Will I have >3k M$ in total value by 2023

1672613940000

BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2

cpmm-1

0

4.638578972313428

True

play

NO

public

1650400986888

Uzay

This market resolves to yes if my total value (balance + investment) is superior to 3k M$ on the 1st of January 2023. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Apr 21, 8:53pm: Now that I've actually been using manifolds, i've decided it makes more sense for this market to ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.36703201767148896, "platformFee": 0.06117200294524817, "liquidityFee": 0.36703201767148896}

0

1672621709354

220.36703201767148

uzpg

1672603819502

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c

14

0

1

12

0.99

1672603819397

1672331156286

0.02

0.4257940761905601

6WFKEdZfWKflgCZA2Blo

{"NO": 351.65680273500993, "YES": 17.246099918901578}

1

will-the-2022-bird-flu-outbreak-be

1087.0612778690402

Will the 2022 bird flu outbreak be worse than the 2015 outbreak (more than 50 million birds killed)?

1672549140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.925747238426805

True

play

YES

public

1650415820090

David Glidden

Context: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/06/1091061758/bird-flu-outbreak "A highly pathogenic bird flu virus is tearing its way through U.S. farms and chicken yards, spreading to at least 24 states less than two months after the first outbreak was reported in a commercial flock. Nearly 23 million birds have died. It's th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.2241503122692743, "platformFee": 0.21399532293128568, "liquidityFee": 1.2839719375877139}

0

1672580669796

101.28397193758771

dglid

1667245203184

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

9

0

1

9

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132015792}]

["medicine"]

0.4

1667245202982

0.94

0.5021756949872356

cE6lyux7tBgWoL5RSMWO

{"NO": 164.7971509286005, "YES": 63.93144412124683}

1

will-a-military-leader-remain-chief

65

Will a military leader remain chief executive in Sudan by April 19, 2023?

1651172223650

81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42

cpmm-1

0

2.8358927307429758

True

play

YES

public

1650423863799

CUR

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is a Sudanese general who is the current de facto head of state of Sudan after leading a coup detat in October of 2021. Sudan is currently under rule of a military junta. Sudan is scheduled to hold their next election in July 2023.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2170944283970242, "platformFee": 0.20284907139950406, "liquidityFee": 1.2170944283970242}

0

1651172223650

101.21709442839702

CoupUprisingRebellion

1650423863799

0

https://firebasestorage.…10d-4720a1070673

3

0

0.5

0.7222413598019205

0.498197960968242

SGp0eRc6jx9b7EP6Spx4

{"NO": 69.41372141372142, "YES": 149.84615384615387}

1

will-abdel-fattah-alburhan-and-moha

50

Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo retain their positions as Chair and Deputy Chair of Sudan's Sovereign Council, respectively, by April 19, 2023.

1651172238949

81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42

cpmm-1

0

2.8097738369474077

True

play

YES

public

1650424124877

CUR

On October 25, 2021, the Sudanese military took control of the government in a military coup. The next elections are slated to be held in July 2023.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9230769230769231, "platformFee": 0.15384615384615385, "liquidityFee": 0.9230769230769231}

0

1651172238949

100.92307692307692

CoupUprisingRebellion

1650424124877

0

https://firebasestorage.…10d-4720a1070673

1

0

0.5

0.31502447980416154

0.22343952132638667

gXqfz1INhFuoH3MPRhzk

{"NO": 61.97407489290762, "YES": 708.0881922543194}

0

will-twitter-stock-cross-5420-befor

6230.382538724471

Will Twitter stock cross $54.20 before September 1st, 2022

1660588140000

oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3

cpmm-1

0

4.469799983018846

True

play

NO

public

1650433207447

hawkebia

Elon Musk's Twitter offer is for $54.20 per share. Part of the Twitter Board's consideration is if this offer represents a fair market value for the company. Resolves to YES if Market Close Price on any day before September 1st, 2022 is MORE than $54.20. Source: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TWTR:NYSE?window=6M

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 75.93293276711968, "platformFee": 10.832047017724282, "liquidityFee": 64.99228210634568}

0

1664241239956

124.77041633238738

hawkebia

1710451940781

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c

46

0

1

46

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.3

1660544889629

1657335316637

0.024564391688124045

0.498197960968242

2V15d2Lv9LrefUEJ3Gen

{"NO": 69.41372141372142, "YES": 149.84615384615387}

0.3150244798041616

how-many-will-russias-economy-contr

50

How many % will Russia's economy contract during 2022?

1650488557394

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.8097738369474077

True

play

CANCEL

public

1650450315990

Keepcalmandchill

Closest answer wins. N/A in case of no contraction. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9230769230769231, "platformFee": 0.15384615384615385, "liquidityFee": 0.9230769230769231}

0

1650488557394

100.92307692307692

Keepcalmandchill

1650450315990

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

1

0

0.5

1650453390681

0.31502447980416154

0.5079485238455713

UlrV2qyJxKfj7GE4Sqba

{"NO": 130.00000000000009, "YES": 110.90909090909088}

0.5475113122171946

if-andy-burnham-is-the-leader-of-th

10

If Andy Burnham is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?

1720166194214

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1650472639694

Tetra

This resolves N/A if Andy Burnham is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the se...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720166194214

120

Tetraspace

1720166194214

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

1

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489289}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031744642}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

0.5

1680738432905

0.55

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2