Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.5079485238455715
A8OnDgvzy55ire7ZhxQG
{"NO": 129.99999999999997, "YES": 110.90909090909088}
0.5475113122171945
if-angela-rayner-is-the-leader-of-t
10
If Angela Rayner is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166179773
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472670675
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Andy Burnham is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the se...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166179773
120
Tetraspace
1720166179773
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
1
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474490}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031740634}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1680738422575
0.55
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.5079485238455721
ezC3sTiQ0pd3qIuSNqyC
{"NO": 129.99999999999997, "YES": 110.90909090909093}
0.5475113122171951
if-lisa-nandy-is-the-leader-of-the
10
If Lisa Nandy is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166204918
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472733076
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Lisa Nandy is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the sea...
BINARY
{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166204918
120
Tetraspace
1720166204918
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
1
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497853}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031737856}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1680738413136
0.55
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.5273437491224021
lj1bCrWGUQBk23YtGc44
{"NO": 181.00000000000006, "YES": 142.51617282294612}
0.5862600373187106
if-rachel-reeves-is-the-leader-of-t
21
If Rachel Reeves is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166209346
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472767071
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Rachel Reeves is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the ...
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166209346
160
Tetraspace
1720166209346
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
3
0
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503411}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031735080}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-mark...
["politics-default", "uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1685696858478
0.59
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.513720971214604
CLypHFJPOSVlcu1601Sd
{"NO": 181.8298711014471, "YES": 109.92928681142004}
0.6360201721319673
if-sadiq-khan-is-the-leader-of-the
69.89768407525096
If Sadiq Khan is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166215189
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472813111
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Sadiq Khan is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the seat...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7140920212957393, "platformFee": 0.4878476774043366, "liquidityFee": 0.2714932126696833}
0
1720166215189
140.27149321266967
Tetraspace
1720166215189
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
7
0
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477006}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031729457}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-mark...
["politics-default", "uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1714992945243
0.64
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.5079485238455718
yp1VfsJRY9X8QPg7Ayxc
{"NO": 181.4704476565035, "YES": 80.28571673242675}
0.7000000000000002
if-rosena-allinkhan-is-the-leader-o
62.81444543818803
If Rosena Allin-Khan is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166174182
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472856609
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Rosena Allin-Khan is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of t...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.15248868778280555, "month": 0.15248868778280533}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.3439977816845725, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166174182
120
Tetraspace
1720166174182
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
2
1
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513875}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031726404}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1719901463722
0.7
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.5079485238455718
EWxhUE05DWcHHhDSlgs4
{"NO": 129.99999999999997, "YES": 110.90909090909088}
0.5475113122171948
if-nick-thomassymonds-is-the-leader
10
If Nick Thomas-Symonds is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
1720166184715
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650472900901
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Nick Thomas-Symonds is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of...
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166184715
120
Tetraspace
1720166184715
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
1
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478214}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031723377}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1680738393031
0.55
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.9223966658760345
s4dyAtxQzWCYXoRXC3kN
{"NO": 6934.2741816995685, "YES": 832.5362625401635}
1
will-keir-starmer-be-leader-of-the
6685.478774571841
Will Keir Starmer be leader of the UK Labour Party going into the next election?
1720118683909
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
YES
public
1650473168087
Tetra
This resolves YES if Keir Starmer is leader of the UK Labour party going into the next election, currectly scheduled for 2nd May 2024. Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.025730762283716624, "month": 0.025730762283716624}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.503459754892603, "platformFee": 0.6778418733144033, "liquidityFee": 1.2065850261295874}
0
1720118683909
1000
Tetraspace
1720118683909
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
0
20
1
11
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507774}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031720241}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.75
1720118605929
1720118635627
0.99
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
0.19031739739762044
OOHxadyWMfWLSib74Z3P
{"NO": 672.8053113397791, "YES": 4296.806815062895}
0
if-rishi-sunak-is-the-leader-of-the
4339.245239486447
If Rishi Sunak is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720165614931
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
1.539095918623324e-16
10.07917534883543
True
basic
NO
public
1650473426997
Tetra
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves N/A if Rishi Sunak is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minori...
BINARY
{"day": -0.035498513442592444, "week": -0.035498513442592444, "month": -0.11408395214082058}
0
{"creatorFee": 12.081798219340342, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324}
0
1720165614931
1000
Tetraspace
1720165614931
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
1
24
0
13
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484076}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031717130}, {"name": "Prime Millennial", "slug": "prime-mille...
["politics-default", "uk-politics", "prime-millennial"]
0.10656092860126491
0.5
1718574517767
0.04
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
0.4481114948280014
BhuUU3GHE4I876i4HuwI
{"NO": 142.31785405476512, "YES": 180.74211102775575}
0.39000000000000007
if-liz-truss-is-the-leader-of-the-c
81.66232486327633
If Liz Truss is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720166220732
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650473466115
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Liz Truss is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a plur...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166220732
160
Tetraspace
1720166220732
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
7
0
5
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476379}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031713914}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1682938240336
0.39
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.454493691000902
eGwD1ncs4U3NOzTaDRFY
{"NO": 151.2272011472909, "YES": 167.39843452605135}
0.42944306397997245
if-tom-tugendhat-is-the-leader-of-t
132.88466700463678
If Tom Tugendhat is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720166235568
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650473501365
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Tom Tugendhand is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.19771783699979112, "platformFee": 0.19771783699979112, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166235568
160
Tetraspace
1720166235568
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
4
0
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496965}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031709198}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-mark...
["politics-default", "uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1715338115189
0.43
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.4210887645108501
tf3YEX6KKIAmO7WbiQva
{"NO": 104.2784435148444, "YES": 274.1504205560292}
0.21671427169208868
if-ben-wallace-is-the-leader-of-the
115
If Ben Wallace is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720166200033
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650473530883
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Ben Wallace is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a pl...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8495794439708785, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166200033
160
Tetraspace
1720166200033
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
5
0
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509234}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031704966}]
["politics-default", "uk-politics"]
0.5
1716728016047
0.22
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.42008534337202935
VkZTHvFFptHaM1w4wz2d
{"NO": 167.21413319493325, "YES": 245.92760988137522}
0.3299999999999997
if-jeremy-hunt-is-the-leader-of-the
168.37677666777466
If Jeremy Hunt is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720166228506
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650473572489
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Jeremy Hunt is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a pl...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1720166228506
200
Tetraspace
1720166228506
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
6
0
4
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490079}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031702063}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-mark...
["politics-default", "uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1684340890531
0.33
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
0.37113986984027486
y51BrGwrblRF8q2LqZIl
{"NO": 123.98927093590852, "YES": 412.7300961213081}
0.15059670180786583
if-penny-mordaunt-is-the-leader-of
394.69601243398404
If Penny Mordaunt is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
1720166167922
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650473600845
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Penny Mordaunt is not the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Conservative majority or minority government or a coalition government where Conservatives make up a...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.36829059961258503, "platformFee": 0.097529901892492, "liquidityFee": 0.2714932126696833}
0
1720166167922
200.27149321266967
Tetraspace
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1716563110571
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will-this-market-have-2k-volume-by
2010.559845081635
Will this market have >2k volume by May 1st?
1650907731801
BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2
cpmm-1
0
5.133970505643413
True
play
YES
public
1650483075775
Uzay
Resolves YES if this market has >= 2k volume by 00:00 on May 1st.
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1650907731801
103.03593120906304
uzpg
1650483075775
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c
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1650892748904
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will-dwarkesh-patel-host-of-the-lun
451.96524815909333
Will Dwarkesh Patel (Host of The Lunar Society podcast) have over 20k followers on Twitter by June 1st?
1654059540000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
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6.195143588535981
True
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NO
public
1650485929666
SG
On the Lunar Society Podcast, host Dwarkesh Patel interviews economists, scientists, and philosophers about their big ideas. Listen on Spotify, iTunes, and other podcasting platforms: https://anchor.fm/dwarkeshpatel Dwarkesh's Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
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1654099593119
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SG
1654055584872
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https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
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1654055583423
0.007360669577230431
fDl6BqI4u5B4NCa2aG9K
how-many-will-russias-economy-contr-30d80944d556
123
How many % will Russia's economy contract during 2022?
1672491540000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.955056960160141
True
play
0fe3647166af
public
1650488624073
Keepcalmandchill
Closest answer wins. N/A if no contraction.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1672540722680
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Keepcalmandchill
1650488624073
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https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
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ANYONE
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{"0fe3647166af": 100}
True
0.7937025194662337
4IRZ67bMlPRA2KKwx73I
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will-i-make-it-to-ea-bahamas-by-apr
1262.1590661248422
Will I make it to EA Bahamas by April 28th?
1651129140000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
4.77328586394131
True
play
YES
public
1650489290527
Austin
The Manifold team is doing a trip to the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA visitor program! I've booked flights for 4/27-5/11. However, there are a few potential things that could go wrong: - My passport is expired, and I don't know how easy the expedited process is - Logistically I need to figure out covid testing for th...
BINARY
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1651420183538
104.54494003591853
Austin
1650489290527
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
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1651011874801
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1
will-i-extend-my-stay-in-ea-bahamas
589.2447686284695
Will I extend my stay in EA Bahamas?
1652252340000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
5.4713572060415485
True
play
YES
public
1650489721859
Austin
See: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-make-it-to-ea-bahamas-by-apr Most likely I'll fly back at the end, but James and Stephen are staying a bit later (May 14th). What are the chances I'll fall in love with the community/location and extend my stay beyond the my current May 11th flight? Apr 20, 2:23pm: Resolves...
BINARY
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{"creatorFee": 6.7245118083713225, "platformFee": 1.120751968061887, "liquidityFee": 6.7245118083713225}
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1652264528135
106.72451180837129
Austin
1652230476841
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
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1652230475438
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will-latchbio-raise-a-total-of-15-m
904
Will latch.bio raise a total of $15 million by the end of 2022?
1672646340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
6.2617795212813006
True
play
YES
public
1650492463696
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1672654573525
140
StochasticParrot
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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1
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0.34
1672643148154
1672654668786
0.99
GIOBL3E4MOom6yf97Aqd
what-will-us-interest-rates-be-by-t
1413.4675884135982
What will US interest rates be by the end of 2022?
1672646340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.663832936061467
True
play
56022fddfb4
public
1650492510716
Stochastic Cockatoo
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1672654522123
620
StochasticParrot
1672619770515
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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ANYONE
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1
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[{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1665933549782}]
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1672619770352
1650746336374
{"56022fddfb4": 100}
True
Xkt5wAnUYWQzYUSF779z
when-will-quora-finally-go-public-i
104
When will Quora finally go public (if ever)?
1903589940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650492547949
Stochastic Cockatoo
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
300
StochasticParrot
1680100816149
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
3
0
ANYONE
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1680100816014
True
True
0.4842508456369124
QhtOb5JU65icvlalei2t
{"NO": 127.70047224746509, "YES": 154.00000000000006}
0.4377539416049959
will-erez-lieberman-aiden-still-be
14
Will Erez Lieberman Aiden still be at the Baylor College of Medicine by 2026:?
1808895540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650492615900
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
StochasticParrot
1694154379629
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0.5
1694154379307
0.5171121122146853
1lCJxS1ZMZ6Iefx06Xdi
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0.6214187519794898
will-minnesota-reach-a-streak-of-vo
72.2612315042164
Will Minnesota reach a streak of voting Democrat for 60 straight years?
1998284340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650492731226
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
180
StochasticParrot
1684135139635
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
4
0.45
1684135139451
1650935077363
0.48520031065799657
gm6kaLvdygZnGLNQWBxx
{"NO": 107.96649578698049, "YES": 134.88951716603452}
0.42999999999999994
will-a-study-show-that-the-combinat
37.41199836058067
Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?
2092978740000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650492818807
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.2714932126696833, "platformFee": 0.04524886877828055, "liquidityFee": 0.2714932126696833}
0
120.27149321266968
StochasticParrot
1686594913268
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
2
0.5
1686594913097
0.28949515952312904
N9yNveZ5rqhsPtRRYm0D
{"NO": 87.01186581647974, "YES": 1442.6843782978374}
0
will-carol-chen-still-be-at-coherea
3007.521842211849
Will Carol Chen still be at cohere.ai by the end of 2024?
1655407416800
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
2.7372970398024536
True
play
NO
public
1650492899085
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.9235090883198875, "platformFee": 0.9872515147199817, "liquidityFee": 5.9235090883198875}
0
1655407416800
205.92350908831986
StochasticParrot
1655344945621
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
0.5
1655344945487
1655336469363
0.02398490228587482
0.31954793866209646
2HwYvM8Sr7cePlKNhUtZ
{"NO": 96.97526817967011, "YES": 351.61110186903556}
0
will-remnote-have-more-usage-than-r
217.60368202980547
Will RemNote have more usage than Roam Research by the end of 2022?
1682665140000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
2.585414465155514
True
play
NO
public
1650492967570
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.0628931144301457, "platformFee": 0.25553540265424585, "liquidityFee": 1.5332124159254752}
0
1697008391451
161.53321241592548
StochasticParrot
1697008251058
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
34
7
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0.5
1682098320232
1697008249380
0.11
0.13977962911290473
ghSU5YHric4juvdUd4fX
{"NO": 151.2037108220551, "YES": 3683.0598328910805}
0
will-amazon-have-a-higher-market-ca
4147.021437836083
Will Amazon have a higher market cap at the end of 2022 than at the beginning?
1672646340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
3.662831769542424
True
play
NO
public
1650493055510
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.8487879283021313, "platformFee": 0.4747979880503552, "liquidityFee": 2.8487879283021313}
0
1672654624836
282.84878792830216
StochasticParrot
1672643113368
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
1
15
0.5
1672643113095
0.01
0.49264535990373587
14FkEMdFd96hCN2hQvCv
{"NO": 140.9090909090909, "YES": 138.9159933766035}
0.4962062899342772
will-david-sinclair-be-regularly-ta
20
Will David Sinclair be regularly taking a SGLT2 inhibitor (canagliflozin, empagliflozin) by the end of 2025?
1777359540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650493121329
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
StochasticParrot
1702835681678
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
1
0.5
1702835681528
0.47313241016014723
VRBTBlodRErRJ5CAsrM1
{"NO": 163.12889620115172, "YES": 199.99999999999986}
0.422785086981066
will-david-sinclair-have-a-grimage
760
Will David Sinclair have a GrimAge clock that is more than 7 years younger than his chronological age at any point before 2026?
1808895540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650493277039
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
180
StochasticParrot
1685523410685
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
1
0.5
1685523410254
0.2633966413468933
0xcEOMeKu8a1WHcO3mFE
{"NO": 41.809872902660004, "YES": 2320.918032786885}
0
will-the-market-cap-of-palladium-be
2172.17823475109
Will the market cap of palladium be higher at the end of 2022 than it was at its peak right after the spike after Russia invaded Ukraine?
1672646340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
4.6942094582157905
True
play
NO
public
1650493781612
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246}
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1672658744236
160.4918032786885
StochasticParrot
1672656825838
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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1
6
0.5
1672641286300
1672656822332
0.01
0.6370597016991718
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{"NO": 161.978001886206, "YES": 224.36277151489907}
0.5589301602710736
will-elon-musk-die-before-peter-thi
54.41708477955593
Will Elon Musk die before Peter Thiel?
3039663540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494409828
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}
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{"creatorFee": 0.1543709794400549, "platformFee": 0.025728496573342485, "liquidityFee": 0.1543709794400549}
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200.15437097944005
StochasticParrot
1710451932913
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
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0.67
1700208332241
False
0.25995831117240875
V0vJ90QgppEW4q8CJmAF
{"NO": 129.98697231099266, "YES": 95.11844240115045}
0.3243452054663169
will-any-pastcurrent-student-from-t
28.995176098451157
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?
1856678460000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494670561
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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120
StochasticParrot
1685433012493
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https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
3
0
3
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736812645}]
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1685433012358
0.34446178125801075
XSp78waVHvzuYORZgtNF
{"NO": 229.23516907089763, "YES": 104.53792481774218}
0.5353720708148102
will-morgan-levine-start-to-regular
64.72640827871811
Will Morgan Levine start to regularly ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027?
1840517940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494773198
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.3252593463775163, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
180
StochasticParrot
1716417447882
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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1716417444420
0.45634945335476207
KEXN1koXhFCAeBthryOJ
{"NO": 197.56651244955972, "YES": 121.48616088922618}
0.5771847646549796
will-mike-lustgarten-start-to-regul
42.6033626185954
Will Mike Lustgarten start to regularly ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027?
1840517940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494785775
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
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0
160
StochasticParrot
1702835696811
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
5
0
2
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1663089987456}]
["health"]
0.4
1702835692786
0.5152354570637119
LEkldqYyHyfLKQUpqJ22
{"NO": 140, "YES": 103.33333333333343}
0.5901639344262293
will-mike-lustgarten-take-rapamycin
28.177569952422928
Will Mike Lustgarten take rapamycin and finally post a YouTube video showing his Phenoage response to rapamycin by the end of 2026?
1808895540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494818098
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
StochasticParrot
1684196021585
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
3
0
2
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1663089987455}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736814072}]
["health", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1684196021459
0.5226713324041397
CwFOiT230iVZB7u01K8M
{"NO": 157.1875, "YES": 125.33333333333334}
0.5786441724102457
will-james-w-head-iii-still-be-a-no
22
Will James W. Head III still be a non-retired non-emeritus professor at Brown University when he reaches 80 years old?
2029820340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494902853
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
StochasticParrot
1683111592373
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
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[]
[]
0.5
1683111592223
0.5570910954314551
Gwykc2G5nKvuPaWivzkw
{"NO": 121.41674952249407, "YES": 118.77640446892657}
0.5625089322362795
will-daut-still-be-among-the-top-10
23.35371707511966
Will DauT still be among the top 10 AoE2 players among all AoE2 games played in 2023?
1714287540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650494972109
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.1840366803439495, "platformFee": 0.1840366803439495, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
StochasticParrot
1714287349063
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
5
0
10
https://firebasestorage.…26e-373ae1c8fbb7
1
0.55
1714287345893
0.660001932905802
lNMG1VT2e9dBFh7ATvZI
{"NO": 101.9932992866827, "YES": 99.10903242304393}
0.6664093251852292
will-theviper-have-a-higher-elo-rat
2
Will TheViper have a higher ELO rating than DauT by the end of 2022?
1650685640155
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
3.0872119966699803
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650494996555
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.04020427990371221, "platformFee": 0.0067007133172853695, "liquidityFee": 0.04020427990371221}
0
1650685640155
100.0402042799037
StochasticParrot
1650494996555
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
0
0.66
1650540209985
0.6664093251852292
0.6167779721260843
APqRYlNQWKeRdGAMZdc0
{"NO": 370.99504975001236, "YES": 48.524486561733035}
1
will-theviper-have-a-higher-elo-rat-f18ecd939ea5
253.17136615841207
Will TheViper have a higher ELO rating than DauT in Age of Empires II (AOE2) by the end of 2022?
1673400830234
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
3.3060911577539587
True
play
YES
public
1650495021015
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.029701499925746253, "platformFee": 0.004950249987624376, "liquidityFee": 0.029701499925746253}
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1673400830234
120.02970149992575
StochasticParrot
1673146013722
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
3
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0.5
1672604724118
1673146009315
False
0.92
0.5131551179802487
WHJk5ij8DdwBNCAN0an1
{"NO": 136.9502190853835, "YES": 144.36125242676286}
0.4999828146907079
will-laura-gao-lauragaoca-win-an-em
43.33955700443775
Will Laura Gao (lauragao.ca) win an emergent ventures grant by the end of 2025?
1777359540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650495125860
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.49180327868852447, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447}
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140.4918032786885
StochasticParrot
1708170381783
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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[]
[]
0.5
1708170381641
1650501875224
0.43910381529107656
b7NDrRdANN21as2zqixd
{"NO": 185.00000000000003, "YES": 95.67266383307488}
0.6021959261630712
will-amy-li-httpstwittercomamyli0-f
45
Will Amy Li (https://twitter.com/amyli0) from TOPS/TKS win an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2025?
1777359540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650495160438
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
StochasticParrot
1690271385963
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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0
1
0.4
1690271385844
0.5493678010493642
oPxJ318TOtCBdk5qJ7Oh
{"NO": 149.67375593953355, "YES": 194.59937932371903}
0.48391347033268256
will-anyone-from-the-summer-program
1202.4006504652127
Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?
1808895540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650495293307
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.629071527851316, "platformFee": 0.2715119213085527, "liquidityFee": 1.629071527851316}
0
181.62907152785132
StochasticParrot
1683618204838
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
9
0
4
0.5
1683618204732
1678294813058
0.5079485238455721
QNamOj3g3IfHZqlWhnc6
{"NO": 130, "YES": 110.9090909090909}
0.5475113122171952
will-aidan-fitzsimmons-be-part-of-t
10
Will Aidan Fitzsimmons be part of the Interact Fellowship program in 2023?
1701503940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650495823635
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
StochasticParrot
1705435468392
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
1
0
39
1
[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1702947542334}]
["new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1680738328493
1705435466702
0.3104457382261184
mCkFBylbSXZJxQ4W3Xqm
{"NO": 499.8596614137404, "YES": 4563.1700006625215}
0.04699935437766464
will-noam-chomsky-live-longer-than
9823.63965076477
Will Noam Chomsky live longer than Bertrand Russell? (Russell died at 98)
1808895540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
9.984336724386392
False
basic
public
1650496284970
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.24653525198303708}
0
{"creatorFee": 62.71945641400673, "platformFee": 0.29207162120309105, "liquidityFee": 1.752429727218546}
0
1000
StochasticParrot
1719527781880
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
1
17
1
5
0.5
1719527778774
1676325793027
0.09699895991084061
eoWDVo2SG1XbwxBx2shA
{"NO": 949.9240088829254, "YES": 7525.727938941086}
0
will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll
19386.933627235394
Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?
1704095940000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
1.0464960334217337
True
basic
NO
public
1650496347589
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Trillion+ dollar impact\" is a proxy for \"obviously life-changing for normal people\". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 12.868358508720034, "platformFee": 1.4199563530594557, "liquidityFee": 8.519738118356738}
0
1704578364106
1188.5197381183568
dreev
1704578364441
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
3
86
0
2
54
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451541}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588143}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKE...
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1704066969200
1704200318088
0.01
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
0.7538903626036918
ZM2tqBUMGJKUdEzxduAU
{"NO": 1974.4564435596965, "YES": 65.71702847097714}
1
will-scott-alexander-produce-babby
3334.4001277872567
Will Scott Alexander produce BABBY by 2031?
1703276299572
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
3.82371188035825
True
play
YES
public
1650499353170
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.423434784536705, "platformFee": 0.7372391307561177, "liquidityFee": 4.423434784536705}
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1703276299572
184.4234347845367
StochasticParrot
1703272351419
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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14
0
9
[{"name": "Scott Alexander ", "slug": "scott-alexander", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1684705819972}]
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0.10922812154120626
0.5
1703272351280
1703237146368
0.99
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
0.43325472109252394
rO6hmftgpSmXvSlZOlbD
{"NO": 126.06143274751196, "YES": 159.99999999999997}
0.3758997330211908
will-alishba-imran-become-a-thiel-f
20
Will Alishba Imran become a Thiel Fellow?
1767340740000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650505408588
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
StochasticParrot
1685376619401
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
2
0
1
0.45
1685376619264
q5toP8N2dFAvW6LhQ5iS
if-water-can-float-in-air-in-clouds
349
if water can float in air (in clouds) and I can float in water, why can't I float in air?
1651129140000
0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.748830720373723
True
play
ab6306653784
public
1650513291315
Sinclair Chen
correct answers only
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 11.96, "platformFee": 2.99, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1651164622680
480
Sinclair
1650513291315
0
https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32
11
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "35dece50649a", "prob": 0.08210113217461269, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.946507481002553, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.942248288356645, "textFts": "", "contractId": "q5toP8N2dFAvW6LhQ5iS", "createdTime": 1650513291502, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534564}]
["science-default"]
1651105488381
{"ab6306653784": 100}
True
0.2519713739139224
nYuVLp9fhZsoljdpWz58
{"NO": 63.69364949404607, "YES": 498.99369175308897}
0
will-manifold-show-my-current-portf
505.9565318673192
Will Manifold show my Current Portfolio Value in the main navigation?
1654108140000
oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3
cpmm-1
0
3.9902927167353024
True
play
NO
public
1650520336464
hawkebia
Currently Manifold shows only the cash available for trading under the username in the main navigation area. Will Manifold show my total portofolio value somewhere in the main nav, and which is sticky on every page. Change must happen by June 1st when the closes.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.5125981839277056, "platformFee": 0.5854330306546176, "liquidityFee": 3.5125981839277056}
0
1654608957169
103.51259818392771
hawkebia
1654608778856
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c
10
0
1
0.25
1654103103078
1654608777288
0.041224099117628574
0.7990813347041419
lxQID8AONR7kog033MpS
{"NO": 66.42981094954064, "YES": 113.45992009676317}
0.6995716287533105
will-my-entire-family-have-seen-the
29
Will my entire family have seen the movie "Everything Everywhere All at Once" before June?
1654066740000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
4.294903191777908
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650523622431
Austin
Entire family = me, Alex, Sinclair, mom & dad
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660325222773
100.94713139715194
Austin
1654058997334
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
5
0
1
0.8
1654058996141
1650523802605
0.6995716287533105
0.48456482099700743
OupIRX6yecCmusJ1LgXG
{"NO": 21.55653780194386, "YES": 873.7641093963028}
0
will-manifold-auction-off-the-top-m
1336.3366953446093
Will Manifold auction off the top Market(s) you see when you log in?
1654108140000
oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3
cpmm-1
0
3.7798228542914
True
play
NO
public
1650532156509
hawkebia
The current home page is an algo feed based on organic activity. Will Manifold allow the creator and/or participants in a market to partake in an auction for the top X spots on the feed ala Sponsored Search Results? It could be a daily auction for the top X spots shown in a 24 hour period; or some other mechanism. Ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 15.182410711403799, "platformFee": 2.5304017852339666, "liquidityFee": 15.182410711403799}
0
1654608930148
115.18241071140383
hawkebia
1654102821683
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c
22
0
1
0.5
1654102821408
1651683489442
0.022667568868822024
0.5015973270152158
p1de43GSm3geKM7oOOlM
{"NO": 100.43136854134843, "YES": 143.35311932417144}
0.41351652168412234
will-arnav-shah-win-either-an-emerg
30.17217016658
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
1872140340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650536667400
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4189495575595699, "platformFee": 0.39419830762144803, "liquidityFee": 0.029701499925746253}
0
120.02970149992575
StochasticParrot
1715371923801
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
4
0
2
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736815875}]
["ancient-markets"]
0.5
1715371920530
1650536695386
0.5009525300961516
cPu7XiuaSqr2fHHh2rDR
{"NO": 137.8531290101461, "YES": 75.20711995490421}
0
will-we-make-an-automated-ach-debit
38
Will we make an automated ACH debit from a real bank account by May 10th?
1652220000000
v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1
cpmm-1
0
2.783529027214989
True
play
NO
public
1650559658893
peeps
This market will resolve to "YES" if our servers successfully and automatically ACH debit a real bank account to deposit real USD into a different bank account. Both accounts can be controlled by us, but the money has to be real
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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peeps
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0
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1651510078732
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{"NO": 53.675120541069376, "YES": 613.0711910627175}
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will-russia-hold-kramatorsk-by-the
1239.181019217624
Will Russia hold Kramatorsk by the end of 2022?
1672654784657
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
3.6301649504288593
True
play
NO
public
1650560474322
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
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124.2327201079461
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0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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will-johns-air-conditioner-test-fin
1076.8597331145825
Will John's air conditioner test find at least 50% better temperature delta with two hoses compared to one hose?
1655938006895
cFpLkJGGsTelt3RiupMHhunaeit2
cpmm-1
0
0.6901691314820778
True
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NO
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1650570458639
John Wentworth
Details on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMmqk74zWmvP8tXEJ/preregistration-air-conditioner-test
BINARY
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JohnWentworth
1654836298231
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1654836297994
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0.5406745262133952
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when-will-finland-join-nato
16077.899826733086
When will Finland join NATO?
1680660940460
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.621854004741126
True
play
3984589d57ae
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1650592257992
David Glidden
As defined by formal admittance of Finland into NATO (ie. not when they submit an application). Acceptable answers: <month> <YYYY>, ie “July 2022”. If not by the end of 2024, this market will resolve to “Not before 2025”.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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1680660940460
2180
dglid
1680655375418
0
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ANYONE
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["world-default", "nato"]
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1680615894735
{"3984589d57ae": 100}
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wwFR62p56qPsoFbLcRiP
{"NO": 108.74612852968143, "YES": 20.33001564533965}
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will-aenewspi-win-bets-against-ag12
20
Will @aenews_PI win bets against AG123 and Domer that Finland and/or Sweden will formally join NATO by July 15th?
1657835940000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
0
8.432552132819612
True
play
NO
public
1650592934537
David Glidden
https://twitter.com/aenews_pi/status/1517016552679256064?s=21&t=FZ3pMcOduQg5uD37uWTeYw
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1657845993945
100
dglid
1657832247947
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will-liverpool-win-the-english-prem
633.3223022500136
Will Liverpool win the English Premier League?
1653157740000
nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2
cpmm-1
0
2.7792671043055863
True
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NO
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1650595696598
Akhil Wable
One point seperates Manchester City from Liverpool, with 6 games left to play. Final Matchday is May 22, 2022. Source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables.
BINARY
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akhil
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https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd
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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399464}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000108}]
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0
will-liverpool-fc-win-the-quadruple
55
Will Liverpool FC win the quadruple this year?
1651604400000
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
cpmm-1
0
6.469422148078916
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NO
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1650600559343
David Chee
Close date updated to 2022-05-03 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-03 8:00 pm Apr 22, 5:16am: Closes right before the 2nd leg of their match vs Villarreal
BINARY
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SirSalty
1650600559343
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https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
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will-i-be-able-to-make-bets-without
122
Will I be able to make bets without using the keyboard on Manifold?
1653443907351
nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2
cpmm-1
0
2.961064977359215
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YES
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1650600957147
Akhil Wable
Currently betting requires using the keyboard to enter a non 0 number in a text field. Will Manifold add a default non-0 bet amount and/or provide UI Pills with some suggested choices for the bet amounts before Sep 1, 2022?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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akhil
1653443890226
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1653180522013
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{"NO": 117.72429410788266, "YES": 72.80957396346328}
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will-my-current-job-offer-me-a-payr
75
Will my current job offer me a pay-rise when I hand in my resignation this week?
1651060749247
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
cpmm-1
0
3.592141152255079
True
play
NO
public
1650614725569
David Chee
I work 30 hours a week as a poker dealer in the UK. Normally this isn't the sort of role where a company might try to convince an employee to stay with a pay-rise, but they have been struggling for staff lately and I know of co-workers who have higher salaries than mine. I have expressed my concern over this with my bo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.1432858705272606, "platformFee": 0.35721431175454343, "liquidityFee": 2.1432858705272606}
0
1651060749247
102.14328587052725
SirSalty
1650614725569
0
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
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0
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1651060858373
0.35314418802086545
0.43841089351155166
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{"NO": 222.41498175776317, "YES": 66.66834493737835}
0.9
will-i-agree-that-manifolds-comment
818.4654666499627
Will I agree that Manifold's comments should be free?
1653289140000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
2.478486535225856
True
play
MKT
public
1650627088799
Austin
As part of reworking comments, @IanPhilips just rolled out an excellent change, showing a comment box on every question. This greatly increases discoverability of comments; we're already seeing lots of usage (I feel like I've posted at least 2 additional counterfactual comments, already) However, in this process we al...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 15.729177185027726, "platformFee": 2.621529530837955, "liquidityFee": 15.729177185027726}
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1653577572429
115.72917718502772
Austin
1653599403967
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
25
0
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1653283638940
1653599403074
0.9
0.010225088387667383
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{"NO": 999.6470317684052, "YES": 1022.3803760851139}
0.010000000000000005
will-jen-psaki-be-the-2024-democrat
9973.67250798973
Will Jen Psaki be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president?
1725163140000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1650631705773
David Glidden
On the April 22nd, 2022 episode of The Prediction Trade, tastytrade founder and co-CEO Tom Sosnoff stated that he would like to put his money on Biden's White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki at 1% to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024: https://youtu.be/SjTAWjlrNHQ?t=2264 This market will resolve YES if Je...
BINARY
{"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": 1.734723475976807e-18}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6846074253774945, "platformFee": 1.6354228201800791, "liquidityFee": 0.059021526236898714}
0
1000
dglid
1719617759998
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
23
1
4
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580857}]
["2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.01
1719617756952
0.09984893024829447
aO0LsdvLnzYRA7GUOS1U
{"NO": 92.80707565410125, "YES": 212.93084510068525}
0
will-the-city-of-cambridge-massachu-9f7375762055
113
Will the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts reinstate a mask mandate before June 1, 2022?
1652587140000
nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143
cpmm-1
0
7.750456821250719
True
play
NO
public
1650649722641
Peter Berggren
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, prior to 12:00 PM June 1, 2022 Eastern Daylight Time, the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts releases a news announcement, on the website https://www.cambridgema.gov/covid19/News, indicating that the wearing of masks is required in indoor public places. This market will resolve to "N...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 0.414929395888327, "platformFee": 0.06915489931472117, "liquidityFee": 0.414929395888327}
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1654084152247
100.41492939588834
PeterBerggren
1652485090907
0
https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023
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0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494668}]
["politics-default"]
0.1
1652485089629
0.04611746452084841
0.8175805071948491
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{"NO": 2.4973997771460628, "YES": 238.41728419395125}
0
will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1
377.82103286125414
Will we successfully rent the 4bed/1.5 unit below us?
1653289140000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
6.463455201366754
True
play
NO
public
1650662184973
Austin
So it turns out the unit below us has been available for a while! I'd love to rent it out to a bunch of friends, and live the group house dream. Not posting the address because I don't want anyone to snipe it, but it's a great place, centrally located in the Mission; this would be on the first floor though, so maybe a ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.485698348961369, "platformFee": 0.7476163914935615, "liquidityFee": 4.485698348961369}
0
1653520322492
104.48569834896138
Austin
1653520333317
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
7
0
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0.85
1653065415913
1653520332970
0.044841986163816766
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{"NO": 791.644554707448, "YES": 8467.613968377496}
0
will-blockchain-tech-find-a-killer
8691.817019792255
Will blockchain tech find a killer app by the end of 2023?
1704094227300
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
1.0809570814365257
True
basic
NO
public
1650662706250
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples of things that would make this resolve to YES: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Crypto as a...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 2.2780118708842103, "platformFee": 0.37966864514736837, "liquidityFee": 2.2780118708842103}
0
1704094227300
1062.2780118708843
dreev
1704094228076
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
24
0
14
[{"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1686269189273}]
["new-years-resolutions-2024"]
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1704093585758
1686974229833
0.01
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
0.24852454662919812
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{"NO": 59.32831677590346, "YES": 562.7450502643748}
0
will-ruth-meet-her-goal-of-having-f
526
Will Ruth meet her goal of having full drafts of 3 papers done by end of April?
1651388340000
5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2
cpmm-1
0
4.192637324927517
True
play
NO
public
1650668929378
Ruth Grace Wong
Apr 22, 8:18pm: My goal this month was to write 3 papers but then I was sick for 2 weeks. Will I still make it??!! The papers are about tools for a tracking new misinformation rumors, the YIMBY movement, and a rewrite of a report I did about the way that San Francisco prioritizes homeless people for subsidized housing ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.854484524745457, "platformFee": 0.30908075412424285, "liquidityFee": 1.854484524745457}
0
1651514342664
101.85448452474544
RuthGraceWong
1650668929378
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c
4
0
1
0.25
1651345811043
1650669046193
0.0336915215290831
0.65
krZge56zr7cHKdkweSJu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.65
will-manifold-revive-some-way-of-go
0
Will Manifold revive some way of going to markets for specific tags or an equivalent feature by the end of June?
1650677804547
Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2
cpmm-1
0
3.0468007936700894
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650670175420
Stephen Malina
Manifold previously had a communities feature that enabled going to markets for specific tags. I found this very useful and have now resorted to use URLs like the following: https://manifold.markets/tag/AI. I suspect others found this useful too and thus am betting on it being revived in some form. This market will r...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1650677804547
100
StephenMalina
1650670175420
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c
0
0
0.65
1650674333983
0.65
0sVgh77oIcJ5vu9q8C7b
how-do-you-decide-how-much-to-bet-o
1392.4665553507127
How do you decide how much to bet on a Manifold market ?
1701120128589
nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.730713578316843
True
play
3000ec08548a
public
1650679428397
Akhil Wable
Currently betting requires two decisions: 1. YES or NO 2. How much should I bet? What is the primary thing to consider when deciding how much to bet? Will resolve to the most popular answer. Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.8450241815513175, "platformFee": 0.9612560453878294, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701120142145
920.0000000000005
akhil
1701118875671
0
https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd
22
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "f5f65b2721a9", "prob": 0.0602106740750575, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1638086501423108, "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.16513373458384, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0sVgh77oIcJ5vu9q8C7b", "createdTime": 1650679428604, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
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23
1652885632432
1701118875161
{"3000ec08548a": 100}
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0.5079485238455714
VMyjlkAvjXN7S60D9ywi
{"NO": 129.99999999999997, "YES": 110.90909090909086}
0.5475113122171945
will-michael-nielsen-have-kids-by-2
10
Will Michael Nielsen have kids by 2035?
2093151540000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650685614628
Stochastic Cockatoo
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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120
StochasticParrot
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0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
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1
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1680738305617
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{"NO": 104.48228641812291, "YES": 215.21398901776666}
0.6253497419009232
should-markets-autoresolvetoprob-if
584
Should markets auto-resolve-to-PROB if the creator doesn't resolve them?
1651301940000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
2.560443619987117
True
play
MKT
public
1650694446068
Daniel Reeves
This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what ...
BINARY
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206.14692506220803
dreev
1650694446068
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
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0.6253497419009232
0.142684341162184
E1r2CAE05m7nbOr4Yyt5
{"NO": 383.31463706782057, "YES": 2830.6508542316024}
0
will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control
7710.738495102271
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?
1672549140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
1.6651431409402697
True
play
NO
public
1650710305324
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10736/ukraine-controls-mariupol-on-january-1-2023/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 19.18184013410336, "platformFee": 0.4995190409848481, "liquidityFee": 2.997114245909088}
0
1672697808012
522.9971142459091
MetaculusBot
1672541807978
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
36
0
1
36
[{"name": "Ukraine Counteroffensive", "slug": "ukraine-counteroffensive", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "2i6fbccCzqrKyYbLXRrG", "createdTime": 1662896509798}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414525}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war"...
["world-default", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus"]
0.21
1672541807871
0.02
0.045078100924428224
QHNGE4qFyp0621uZPgoW
{"NO": 217.8189725831138, "YES": 834.0221352902142}
0
will-ukraine-formally-pledge-not-to
682.5761723705986
Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
8.499986708869807
True
play
NO
public
1650710518486
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10746/ukraine-pledges-to-not-join-eu-by-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9214644519887505, "platformFee": 0.15357740866479175, "liquidityFee": 0.9214644519887505}
0
1704124249837
230.92146445198875
MetaculusBot
1704124250173
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
10
0
1
6
[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370707}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223902}, {"name": "EU Accession", "slug": "eu-acces...
["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "eu-accession", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.09188393498201684
0.05
1699386038863
False
0.01
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.1907164983335119
xNguj7dgsyQSQd2OoYWl
{"NO": 99.59020213073873, "YES": 1044.8794128096436}
0
will-ukraine-formally-pledge-not-to-d810ef98c73e
1478.1288216492244
Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
3.758150926472183
True
play
NO
public
1650710681805
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10747/ukraine-pledges-to-not-join-nato-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.6753922449855754, "platformFee": 0.3560895046131507, "liquidityFee": 2.136537027678904}
0
1704124235983
202.1365370276789
MetaculusBot
1704124236442
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
1
17
0
1
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[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371096}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224236}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...
["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.55
1702327731060
False
0.02
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.1334117699351434
sFyikcylsOGednxhXxQR
{"NO": 105.01305090636455, "YES": 677.2829719742109}
0
will-ukraine-officially-recognize-a
567.7513925569193
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
5.173384298139111
True
play
NO
public
1650710793347
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10734/ukraine-recognizes-crimealnrdnr-before-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.46890106618339805, "platformFee": 0.025890876576170486, "liquidityFee": 0.1553452594570229}
0
1704124222592
140.15534525945702
MetaculusBot
1704124222921
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
8
0
1
7
[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664465319987}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664465317108}, {"name": "Ukraine", "...
["russia", "ukraine", "wars", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.19
1694714514199
0.02
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.1583346106354446
LG57fF7YqAPNEe08bTYh
{"NO": 532.8106523287327, "YES": 9151.647207147305}
0
will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-8feb5ba674f3
12616.211974537382
Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
0.8922121252306159
True
play
NO
public
1650710913909
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.515471891952216, "platformFee": 0.585911981992036, "liquidityFee": 3.515471891952216}
0
1704124208175
863.5154718919522
MetaculusBot
1704124208736
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
40
0
1
29
[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663038190489}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663038188211}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-...
["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.12276100390432025
0.11
1704069066744
False
0.01
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.18061194675857048
MoBaLWG966ltagA4PCwY
{"NO": 142.65893289855444, "YES": 4092.818377550059}
0
will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-d0300de68888
11863.174904584183
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastapol on January 1, 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
2.970573455888493
True
play
NO
public
1650711033807
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.259773308249108, "platformFee": 0.10486284064102999, "liquidityFee": 0.6291770438461801}
0
1704124194098
340.6291770438462
MetaculusBot
1704124194471
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
23
0
1
14
[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370698}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223898}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024",...
["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.10864025851653455
0.05
1704069500425
False
0.01
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.7009300376013158
a0FIY3VNQ3K7hSnYuCxi
{"NO": 5421.675567308455, "YES": 201.25291474815174}
1
will-russia-control-any-formerly-uk
6882.937945828504
Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0.2915863405243178
1.3748819067190716
True
play
YES
public
1650711139654
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.0431578263058765, "platformFee": 0.14111114989591694, "liquidityFee": 0.8466668993755015}
0
1704124177066
620.8466668993755
MetaculusBot
1704124177713
1.3
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
1
42
0
1
22
[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663038206920}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663038205388}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w...
["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "global-macro", "how-it-ends", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.16150211325406877
0.62
1703770133842
1673195670524
False
0.98
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.280618336921825
JDKLMVMPsg3ztFVEaZvh
{"NO": 98.94166892572764, "YES": 1515.1264550423516}
0
will-ukraine-have-a-security-guaran
1613.9682839120167
Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?
1704085140000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
2.57792515176083
True
play
NO
public
1650711247890
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10735/secury-guarantee-for-ukraine-before-2024/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.342478443269269, "platformFee": 0.23744899137106468, "liquidityFee": 1.4246939482263878}
0
1704124140762
221.42469394822638
MetaculusBot
1704124141258
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
16
0
1
11
[{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406876}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370975}, {"name":...
["stefans-group", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.41
1697387786527
False
0.02
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
0.9002438923651892
FEvyAr66O21bhnu4Y4L5
{"NO": 159.28457339543195, "YES": 96.44506214198904}
0
will-i-be-required-to-supply-proof
130
Will I be required to supply proof of a negative COVID-19 test to re-enter the US from Spain on May 2, 2022?
1651463940000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
7.672710081640521
True
play
NO
public
1650727874471
Charlie
This market resolves to YES if I, a U.S. citizen, am required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to board my flight back to the U.S. on May 2nd. This is the ruling I expect will require me to get a test. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/testing-international-air-travelers.html#:~:text=Air%20p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.696958134384029, "platformFee": 0.11615968906400485, "liquidityFee": 0.696958134384029}
0
1651584015310
100.69695813438403
Charlie
1651584708316
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
4
0
1
0.9
1651446483042
1651584700120
0.937124305643898
pcRwxXbfdupOokvZIPyB
if-donald-trump-is-elected-presiden
290
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
1867017600000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650739677112
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of March 1st 2029. The resolution will be the change of CPI-U from Janurary 2025 to January 2029, to the power of 1/4 to get a yearly avera...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.19775493041432812, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
540
Tetraspace
1719119027558
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
6
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "21493fd46915", "prob": 0.08623656342344972, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.4039378497722703, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.0681574499653, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pcRwxXbfdupOokvZIPyB", "createdTime": 1650739677312, "probChanges": {"day": -0.87688519544...
3
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438851}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505631}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2",...
["politics-default", "magaland", "ancient-markets"]
1719119024399
1664739352796
True
True
e2tsc8RbHlppOogkTzMm
if-joe-biden-is-elected-president-i
129
If Joe Biden is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
1872284400000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650740007035
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not elected president in 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of March 1st 2029. The resolution will be the change of CPI-U from Janurary 2025 to January 2029, to the power of 1/4 to get a yearly average....
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
460
Tetraspace
1710626416939
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "35b645a6389e", "prob": 0.6009254251547383, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.07373224852209, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.269365586243516, "textFts": "", "contractId": "e2tsc8RbHlppOogkTzMm", "createdTime": 1650740007260, "probChanges": {"day": -0.39907457484...
2
[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856968}]
["the-life-of-biden"]
1710626413508
1650749332252
True
True
vsxAWzza5jVPCjUTao9G
if-ron-desantis-is-elected-presiden
149
If Ron DeSantis is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
1867017600000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650740109007
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Ron DeSantis is not elected president in 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of March 1st 2029. The resolution will be the change of CPI-U from Janurary 2025 to January 2029, to the power of 1/4 to get a yearly avera...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
420
Tetraspace
1683575686192
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "095812c1067b", "prob": 0.4627701420704336, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.65542338263293, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.875081004898576, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vsxAWzza5jVPCjUTao9G", "createdTime": 1650740109208, "probChanges": {"day": -0.53722985792...
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511095}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736817815}]
["politics-default", "ancient-markets"]
1683575686046
True
True
OcjSdHHKtsaJXwS34hrS
if-kamala-harris-is-elected-preside
178
If Kamala Harris is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
1867017600000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650740200780
Tetra
This resolves N/A if Kamala Harris is not elected president in 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of March 1st 2029. The resolution will be the change of CPI-U from Janurary 2025 to January 2029, to the power of 1/4 to get a yearly aver...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
480
Tetraspace
1682125011340
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c4ddc68ec057", "prob": 0.3156167150612296, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.290025667341553, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.82849165706342, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OcjSdHHKtsaJXwS34hrS", "createdTime": 1650740200993, "probChanges": {"day": -0.68438328493...
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484159}]
["politics-default"]
1682125011115
True
True
cwhcHb7dN22ggJbh81so
what-will-the-30year-fixed-rate-mor
550.9055652969657
What will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be on August 4th, 2022?
1659585540000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.721469238030967
True
play
95c0aef65941
public
1650746503790
David Glidden
According to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US data published for Thursday, August 4th, rounded to nearest 0.25%, i.e. "5.25%" or similar.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 18.028803916499708, "platformFee": 4.507200979124927, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659749340309
500
dglid
1659749389080
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
7
0
ANYONE
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1
[{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422786525}]
["housing-markets"]
1659581816179
1659749388813
{"95c0aef65941": 100}
True
0.4880746464335467
4aswAjtUMSLnSLGQUDnw
{"NO": 26.495786450410876, "YES": 458.40111985880657}
0
will-beeminder-have-a-private-manif
407.0368358586671
Will Beeminder have a private Manifold instance for internal predictions and decisions?
1651388340000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
3.5883085902526943
True
play
NO
public
1650755750742
Daniel Reeves
(Probably don't bet on this if you don't have inside information. This is the kind of thing that we'd probably put on our private instance if it existed!)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.372265695157894, "platformFee": 0.5620442825263157, "liquidityFee": 3.372265695157894}
0
1651539107028
103.3722656951579
dreev
1650755750742
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
4
0
1
[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383034058}]
["beeminder"]
0.5
1651346728228
1651346673767
0.05222928034464794
tPLAFk3FPVm3xrBmldfh
who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
8250.630583700267
Who will be elected president in 2028?
1856822400000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1650763438749
Tetra
Getting in early
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 50.52422235975526, "platformFee": 2.758268302862172, "liquidityFee": 0}
64.86235958153557
3440.000000000001
Tetraspace
1720246854672
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
3
51
1
ANYONE
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17
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509089}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867782}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "create...
["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]
0.10242496430580379
1720246851059
1716659488197
False
True
True
23Mxttg34MXjY7ZSidip
who-will-the-time-person-of-the-yea
4686.030557988692
Who will the Time Person of the Year 2022 be?
1669852800000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.630147233603173
True
basic
c74ed23ce2b7
public
1650764309378
Tetra
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.535413129131598, "platformFee": 0.6338532822828995, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670434912681
3139.9999999999995
Tetraspace
1669852337092
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
83
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "0f7f0c57e857", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004907696236541118, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.448940422034018, "textFts": "", "contractId": "23Mxttg34MXjY7ZSidip", "createdTime": 1650764309524, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}...
2
82
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529412456}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime": 1669565218563}]
["world-default", "time-person-of-the-year"]
1669852336970
1668811825542
{"c74ed23ce2b7": 100}
True
0.08324249192681517
5kWGA4Cz1S6E6f6wEVOS
{"NO": 191.3143320647959, "YES": 5413.489264686741}
0
will-michelle-obama-hold-a-politica
5554.853885473556
Will Michelle Obama hold a political office by Feb 1, 2024?
1706860740000
wmFT1FgPDnNH5FJoW7q3adQiwov1
cpmm-1
0
4.3344024167653235
True
play
NO
public
1650765335063
Micah Cohen
Yes if you think 🤔 Michelle will hold a political office (whether elected or appointed). Close date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.003198669962026257}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.0969291922981173, "platformFee": 0.303376903365203, "liquidityFee": 1.8202614201912182}
0
1713022573078
261.82026142019123
MicahCohen
1706860740000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjjwUH5w3KHDLMtyS-u2qBGJS5E6roq4J0sbJCecw=s96-c
15
0
15
6
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1706859861429
1650810366342
0
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
0.15435394484240647
Iulh0nBQUk4fM8HkIWye
{"NO": 2304.566146380151, "YES": 3084.748132641395}
0.12000000000000018
will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b
321036.8966027427
Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?
1924934340000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
2.5866893440979415
False
basic
public
1650774217637
Austin
Someone asked me to put a number our chances of success at a recent EA meetup, and I figured this would be perfect for a prediction market. Famously, Elon estimated: > To be frank, in the early days, I thought there was >90% chance that both SpaceX & Tesla would be worth $0. The press & aerospace / automotive industry...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.008148845317677053, "month": 0.03385969964432664}
0
{"creatorFee": 66.60505665278357, "platformFee": 29.87984963648477, "liquidityFee": 9.004395936582462}
1
2424.004395936582
Austin
1720193587178
0.6
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
3
130
1
55
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661660472268}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "create...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"]
0.14630045672725278
0.09
1720193584019
1713838652058
0.09215304353188217
UL8IalaDnBrddm0ZadmA
{"NO": 1004.3324399045525, "YES": 953.6139955191545}
0.09658088706567192
will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1t-10
755.5217656028988
Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
1924934340000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
10.216553832033803
False
basic
public
1650775799964
Austin
Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-ever-be-worth-1b . There's, what, 4 companies in the world that have hit this milestone? (looked it up, it was 6: Apple, MSFT, Saudi Aramco, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN.) I'm leveraging the probability by 10x as follows: if at market close time, this would resolve to...
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.7545819394310092, "platformFee": 0.5871335584685244, "liquidityFee": 1.2491608067861588}
0
1000
Austin
1714424978714
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
25
0
21
[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429278}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1682288085246}]
["manifold-investors", "manifold-business-future"]
0.1
1714424975141
1657770870936
0.4865175897922128
fYm1RicI9Uplq6fXszvB
{"NO": 10.530425113675335, "YES": 284.7840136053288}
0
does-scott-alexander-have-an-exclus
235
Does Scott Alexander have an exclusive deal with Substack, such that Manifold would not be permitted to mirror the contents of ACX?
1650820444169
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
5.418445860471424
True
play
NO
public
1650777849666
Austin
I've been thinking that it would be cool to embed prediction markets directly into ACX. However, ACX is on Substack, and Substack does not support embeds. So the alternative proposal would be to mirror ACX content on Substack directly. Stephen thinks that ACX has a deal with Substack such that their content must be ex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.2959183680267734, "platformFee": 0.21598639467112893, "liquidityFee": 1.2959183680267734}
0
1650820444169
51.295918368026776
Austin
1650777849666
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
5
0
0.5
1650817334870
0.03384918358348691
e5zV3yE7wur8IDkEvNTk
how-will-zorbathut-choose-to-contin
591
How will ZorbaTHut choose to continue The Motte?
1652005310895
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.696268017478509
True
play
1c40745040bf
public
1650784039544
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 12.200000000000001, "platformFee": 3.0500000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1652005310895
680
ZorbaTHut
1651583378847
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "640b8f3e3420", "prob": 0.0071575608177942675, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.051319035643010116, "userId": "zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.118586599727477, "textFts": "", "contractId": "e5zV3yE7wur8IDkEvNTk", "createdTime": 1650784039898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...
1651583377464
1650831361430
{"1c40745040bf": 100}
True
0.4996667941551171
nEIipt4AUaDI4eYEhkcR
{"NO": 135.29004453339437, "YES": 178.9853680384231}
0.4301556994997516
conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on
104
Conditional on The Motte staying on Reddit and not changing its rules, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005337395
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
1.994653506621509
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784326568
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.798431019542411, "platformFee": 0.46640516992373515, "liquidityFee": 2.798431019542411}
0
1652005337395
152.79843101954245
ZorbaTHut
1650784326568
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
5
0
0.5
1650957534234
0.4301556994997517
0.4991998732240929
k1vwE3G1aYunKZyHPze4
{"NO": 122.06902107388849, "YES": 191.5320899948212}
0.38848872518775784
conditional-on-the-motte-staying-on-d3d4e0c5a4bf
60
Conditional on The Motte staying on Reddit and banning Reddit-disapproved discussion, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005346355
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.0375685445803082
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784431324
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.425163363909649, "platformFee": 0.23752722731827489, "liquidityFee": 1.425163363909649}
0
1652005346355
151.42516336390966
ZorbaTHut
1650784431324
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
2
0
0.5
1650813822026
0.38848872518775784
0.5033779115242348
qs0lVOel5deasKU2KGKQ
{"NO": 248.19939705754905, "YES": 98.58426936337102}
0.718459410809278
conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to
163.07531082468472
Conditional on The Motte moving to a new site owned by another group, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005351313
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.0826723830764644
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784435102
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.9694560394339993, "platformFee": 0.4949093399056666, "liquidityFee": 2.9694560394339993}
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1652005351313
152.969456039434
ZorbaTHut
1651516110975
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
4
0
0.5
1651516109508
0.718459410809278
0.5397239596835864
96GGtH4rtwBja1BwcdmQ
{"NO": 311.5320899948211, "YES": 100.30519230136119}
1
conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-2d8d49de84da
172.40912390072185
Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Tildes, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1672585835887
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.0184210481447318
True
play
YES
public
1650784437889
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.425163363909649, "platformFee": 0.23752722731827483, "liquidityFee": 1.425163363909649}
0
1672585835887
171.42516336390966
ZorbaTHut
1672585960990
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
4
0
4
0.5
1672566610257
1672585957685
0.78
0.49994346681373936
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{"NO": 141.7228396753619, "YES": 159.95322245322248}
0.46972851065277615
conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-d418485476cd
10
Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Lotide/Hoot, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005355028
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.039088448983962
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784440106
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.28066528066528074, "platformFee": 0.04677754677754679, "liquidityFee": 0.28066528066528074}
0
1652005355028
150.2806652806653
ZorbaTHut
1650784440106
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
1
0
0.5
0.4697285106527761
0.49994346681373936
TBNTMwzGzgtVUoQ4m8A1
{"NO": 141.7228396753619, "YES": 159.95322245322248}
0.46972851065277615
conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-ee34c94728f9
10
Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site built from scratch, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005358783
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.039088448983962
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784444501
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.28066528066528074, "platformFee": 0.04677754677754679, "liquidityFee": 0.28066528066528074}
0
1652005358783
150.2806652806653
ZorbaTHut
1650784444501
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
1
0
0.5
0.4697285106527761
0.5024919041261865
yGobLFfDi0JoGLDGuQWa
{"NO": 241.4432954347386, "YES": 98.55585412116457}
0.7121766188389038
conditional-on-the-motte-moving-to-991cae37688e
110
Conditional on The Motte moving to a new self-hosted site based on Tildes but planning to rebuild from scratch, the community will still be thriving on January 1st, 2023.
1652005364226
zPcX8kAOseMcjvk7TNsK2HhkKXw1
cpmm-1
0
2.0975676054255654
True
play
CANCEL
public
1650784446761
ZorbaTHut
The Motte is a nephew of Astral Codex Ten, dedicated towards being "a working discussion ground for people who may hold dramatically different beliefs", currently hosted on Reddit and led by me. It is likely moving off Reddit in the moderately near future. See https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/uaoyng/meta_like...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.9579307244050357, "platformFee": 0.32632178740083934, "liquidityFee": 1.9579307244050357}
0
1652005364226
151.95793072440503
ZorbaTHut
1650784446761
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgZkht0BCGvtD8_gecR2nkwoGRljnWcaswLX_68mCU=s96-c
2
0
0.5
0.7121766188389037