p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5307650318327914 | FKYTBYCKAWown9F0TLQY | {"NO": 68.83599289055215, "YES": 81.20869329115949} | 0 | this-market-resolves-yes-if-its-pro | 1592.2336074067534 | This market resolves YES if its probability is >=50% on may 8th otherwise it resolves NO | 1651960800000 | BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.400893512633001 | True | play | NO | public | 1650789997739 | Uzay | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.05027468755563, "platformFee": 2.1750457812592723, "liquidityFee": 13.05027468755563} | 0 | 1651963606307 | 63.050274687555635 | uzpg | 1651978354049 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651952222227 | 1651978350553 | 0.48948161198260737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f0t2bnx76eDDGGP28r34 | how-many-daily-active-users-will-ma | 80 | How many daily active users will Manifold average during the week prior to January 1st, 2023? | 1650841496084 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.09823655917949 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650807856468 | Stephen Malina | As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifold usage out to the end of the year. In the past week, Manifold roughly ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650841496084 | 340 | StephenMalina | 1650807856468 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ea48065d048e", "prob": 0.390625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.5300360480673, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 58.54685623498498, "textFts": "", "contractId": "f0t2bnx76eDDGGP28r34", "createdTime": 1650807856689, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0},... | 1650840631887 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9498179573598483 | aiVdAelNQZB0hcYPAGbQ | {"NO": 19.730541058459558, "YES": 52.88246105667972} | 1 | will-a-new-build-for-tomorrow-podca | 4 | Will a new Build for Tomorrow podcast episode be released this Thursday, April 28th? | 1651118340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.146352415485154 | True | play | YES | public | 1650809432071 | David Glidden | Jason Feifer’s Build for Tomorrow podcast most recently released an episode about forecasting the future called “Real Ways to Predict the Future “: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-ways-to-predict-the-future/id1104682320?i=1000555831137
Given the interest in forecasting, I figured we should try to forecast i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.16536439476839931, "platformFee": 0.027560732461399888, "liquidityFee": 0.16536439476839931} | 0 | 1651188708205 | 50.1653643947684 | dglid | 1650809432071 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.95 | 1651174162792 | 0.8759592144719468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05354433018340897 | V3ATbasExreIKbrY0bt8 | {"NO": 992.9317282434263, "YES": 1098.1815925928292} | 0.04866235511410253 | joe-biden-will-step-down-as-preside | 503.64504905207383 | Joe Biden will step down as president before the 2024 presidential election results. | 1735685940000 | e05aOO5RYadal9JwmeM0zoc3nhW2 | cpmm-1 | 0.46465770265655276 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1650809824434 | dreamy | This market resolves to "Yes" if Joe Biden officially steps down as president for the rest of his 2020 term before the 2024 election results. The stepping down could be for any reason, but it can't be temporary it has to be for the remainder of his term. | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2107070851771782, "platformFee": 0.3045756429903144, "liquidityFee": 1.0873577306242366} | 0 | 1000 | dreamy | 1713852201845 | 1.1 | 15 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856968}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1701990147623}... | ["the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.12474419521865306 | 0.1 | 1713852198091 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4dhECb7DWrZZFwQirc8m | which-coffee-matches-which-of-the-t | 270 | Which coffee matches which of the three coffee tasting slots? | 1650811481287 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.784730694915448 | True | play | e6b5aaa18ff5 | public | 1650811072929 | SG | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3999999999999995, "platformFee": 0.5999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650811481287 | 280 | SG | 1650811072929 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e5138d90216", "prob": 0.034293552812071325, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1201553153609187, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.543573680563473, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4dhECb7DWrZZFwQirc8m", "createdTime": 1650811073083, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | {"e6b5aaa18ff5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9491546140966732 | kb5Y1YPJbQdgjXuYqFcz | {"NO": 41.60944434332257, "YES": 153.49999510322095} | 1 | will-jd-vance-win-the-ohio-gop-sena | 160.44363560065506 | Will J.D. Vance win the Ohio GOP Senate primary? | 1651550340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.205068056192134 | True | play | YES | public | 1650837484135 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if U.S. Marine Corps veteran J.D. Vance wins the Ohio GOP Senate primary. It will resolve to No if another candidate wins. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1501579664658856, "platformFee": 0.19169299441098095, "liquidityFee": 1.1501579664658856} | 0 | 1651624892430 | 151.15015796646588 | EnopoletusHarding | 1651534242045 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1651534240631 | 1650860470297 | 0.834989351426912 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9354428960348731 | ea4iOvy9YTyR2YgEy4sm | {"NO": 409.46932061008863, "YES": 132.10539455552896} | 1 | will-taiwan-have-more-than-ten-thou | 1038.217611878795 | Will Taiwan have more than ten thousand COVID deaths in 2022? | 1669831505968 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.963711148561678 | True | play | YES | public | 1650837678072 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if Taiwan has more than ten thousand COVID deaths in 2022. It resolves to "no" if Taiwan has less than ten thousand COVID deaths in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33235617234460524, "platformFee": 0.0510134513384904, "liquidityFee": 0.3060807080309424} | 0 | 1669831505968 | 150.30608070803095 | EnopoletusHarding | 1669055380572 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663178526917}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601087}, {"name":... | ["world-default", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "medicine", "please-resolve", "free-money"] | 0.99 | 1669055380403 | 1650860454330 | 0.9782197740621433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zUA4PA2xtoi7ipwE0k9r | how-many-daily-active-users-will-ma-afa9ba2a68dd | 1649.8070297586028 | How many daily active users will Manifold have on average the week prior to January 1st, 2023? | 1672600571674 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.646107824679021 | True | play | 1b2423d4fc66 | public | 1650841628785 | Stephen Malina | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672670049830 | 839.9999999999998 | StephenMalina | 1672597910318 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ad19985d077", "prob": 0.000991136499902476, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.002636250147034673, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.657189260561198, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zUA4PA2xtoi7ipwE0k9r", "createdTime": 1650841629136, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664718321258}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1672597910156 | 1672587074845 | {"1b2423d4fc66": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QrWnkK4d59rgjhxnIZaK | under-what-circumstances-will-the-n | 180 | Under what circumstances will the next current head of state to die meet their fate? | 1654103442940 | zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.859640601505026 | True | play | ecb8508bb159 | public | 1650841743812 | DELETE CLUB | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.68, "platformFee": 1.17, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654103442940 | 680.0000000000002 | DELETECLUB | 1650841743812 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhXaEXsl0aQLd-mwMjrJHnjBLnz2CE5XLk0ErvN=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f9d589f02c37", "prob": 0.07716049382716049, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7037897827288224, "userId": "zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.377325801436715, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QrWnkK4d59rgjhxnIZaK", "createdTime": 1650841743991, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | {"ecb8508bb159": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6996295527304773 | 6hlQlnYdxdVL3A57acXT | {"NO": 51.3699019616945, "YES": 54.869258623048054} | 0.6856011504615345 | rate-out-of-10 | 136 | Rate ジェマ・ルイーズ out of 10 | 1651982340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.999131965141709 | True | play | MKT | public | 1650842422999 | Enopoletus Harding | Alright, literal Keynesian beauty contest. A friend of mine (a Korean) subscribed to ジェマ・ルイーズ's OnlyFans and was criticized by another friend of mine (another Korean) since she's only a 7. LaprasIRL, another friend of mine (not Korean), concurred, as did I. But a larger sample size is never worse, which is why I'm aski... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.893401024370831, "platformFee": 0.3155668373951385, "liquidityFee": 1.893401024370831} | 0 | 1651985107731 | 51.89340102437083 | EnopoletusHarding | 1651548518950 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.7 | 1651548517377 | 1651463839906 | 0.6856011504615345 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3463153125110656 | WDTbFd6CPJezD1j41U5s | {"NO": 1464.8257565614244, "YES": 1684.7276625021645} | 0.31536760929234475 | will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75 | 23000.304019403506 | Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? | 1767329940000 | 2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2 | cpmm-1 | 1.539095918623324e-16 | 8.570745254013303 | False | basic | public | 1650852928335 | Forrest | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04205984143311953, "month": -0.021737557454773293} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.5152270319902, "platformFee": 15.245319102177241, "liquidityFee": 19.53810246868923} | 0 | 1599.249018321966 | Forrest | 1719826855402 | 0.1 | 6 | 126 | 1 | 74 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449734}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587934}] | ["ai", "technology-default"] | 0.13595455108629828 | 0.17 | 1719826849003 | 1709437109720 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19887678023805772 | 8zoW94t1HF83NoTgLQ5h | {"NO": 69.75307887399218, "YES": 71} | 0.19606886779371197 | will-theodore-weld-smith-of-moda-fu | 1 | Will Theodore Weld Smith of moda fund win a Thiel Fellowship | 1830355260000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1650862797672 | Stochastic Cockatoo | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 70 | StochasticParrot | 1680348148055 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1680348147954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05 | L7kPeoBMSn7YuVxyfKhK | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.05 | what-of-ea-money-was-spent-on-struc | 0 | What % of EA money was spent on "structural capital" in the last year? | 1652165940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.394177791962626 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650879978780 | Austin | Prompted by https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s/p/XeADodQvLvPTHcYZe
In the last 12 months (roughly May 2021 to now), how much of EA funding was spent on things like:
- functional and scalable processes,
- competent management,
- suitable legal status and backing,
- good operations support,
- well ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652450683276 | 50 | Austin | 1650879978781 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1650880561338 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | AusFBjoAG7Nj3FsQLx7R | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.1 | what-of-ea-fulltime-employees-were | 0 | What % of EA full-time employees were working on "structural capital" in the last year? | 1651561140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.711209722803055 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650880318284 | Austin | Prompted by https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s/p/XeADodQvLvPTHcYZe
In the last 12 months (roughly May 2021 to now), how much of EA funding was spent on things like:
- functional and scalable processes,
- competent management,
- suitable legal status and backing,
- good operations support,
- well d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652450717149 | 50 | Austin | 1650880318284 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1650880546892 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | AtCzJK5mU7gWHCQYlxpU | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.1 | what-of-ea-money-should-be-spent-on | 0 | What % of EA money SHOULD be spent on "structural capital" in the next year? | 1652165940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.711209722803055 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650881008656 | Austin | Prompted by https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s/p/XeADodQvLvPTHcYZe
In the next 12 months (roughly now to May 2023), how much EA funding should be spent on things like:
- functional and scalable processes,
- competent management,
- suitable legal status and backing,
- good operations support,
- wel... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652450692241 | 50 | Austin | 1650881008656 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1650881175149 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15 | tZGzE5EMktrswktpWiPe | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.15 | what-of-ea-fulltime-employees-shoul | 0 | What % of EA full-time employees SHOULD be working on "structural capital" in the next year? | 1651561140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.320390925604492 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650881101654 | Austin | Prompted by https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s/p/XeADodQvLvPTHcYZe
In the next 12 months (roughly now to May 2023), how many EA FTE should work on things like:
- functional and scalable processes,
- competent management,
- suitable legal status and backing,
- good operations support,
- well design... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652450703477 | 50 | Austin | 1650881101654 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 1650881159239 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
euIEQ0k603wXeJ5XWPUi | who-will-win-the-2022-utah-senate-e | 392 | Who will win the 2022 Utah Senate election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.735024444066781 | True | play | 96f7405250e4 | public | 1650885884528 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016667495 | 320.00000000000006 | Tetraspace | 1668443055554 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f6ef1e8742e4", "prob": 0.016269262807163683, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.36265676247500467, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.928258737108642, "textFts": "", "contractId": "euIEQ0k603wXeJ5XWPUi", "createdTime": 1650885884818, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497684}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458282}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDje... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 1667824717966 | 1668443054558 | {"96f7405250e4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49362144132642644 | gtAiJS0eIKqpgTBctcZO | {"NO": 40.29957155896581, "YES": 77.58007351340345} | 0.3361529769842655 | will-openai-train-a-1-trillion-para | 157 | Will OpenAI train a 1 trillion parameter machine learning model by the end of 2023? | 1651033959177 | OwrYTGe0ddM14XvQoeYpUpBtBXW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.16247647675922 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650888265290 | Kliment Serafimov | This market resolves to Yes if by 31st of December 2023, if OpenAI has made public the fact that they have trained a 1 trillion parameter neural network model. Otherwise it results to No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8501601444468685, "platformFee": 0.4750266907411449, "liquidityFee": 2.8501601444468685} | 0 | 1651033959177 | 52.850160144446875 | KlimentSerafimov | 1650888265290 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoNC5MlDBCIg_egMTCcyRSi4YLzPRqfCltRiu-ww=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1650889223412 | 0.33615297698426544 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05 | TmyPnAVK8PedjEOtYOjJ | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.05 | will-the-federal-reserve-of-the-us | 0 | Will the Federal Reserve of the US put Bitcoin on it's balance sheet by end of 2022? | 1650890396295 | OwrYTGe0ddM14XvQoeYpUpBtBXW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.394177791962626 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650890329807 | Kliment Serafimov | This market resolves to YES if the FED puts any amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650890396295 | 50 | KlimentSerafimov | 1650890329807 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoNC5MlDBCIg_egMTCcyRSi4YLzPRqfCltRiu-ww=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04993282953081017 | U1SmYISZtT8gasQkJaiN | {"NO": 47.3290121938331, "YES": 154.98197445349456} | 0.01579657695603524 | will-the-federal-reserve-of-the-us-06c962c12610 | 105 | Will the Federal Reserve of the US put Bitcoin on its balance sheet by end of 2022? | 1650932594512 | OwrYTGe0ddM14XvQoeYpUpBtBXW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.949395570469257 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650890487296 | Kliment Serafimov | This market resolves to YES if the FED puts any amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10815327903272798, "platformFee": 0.018025546505454664, "liquidityFee": 0.10815327903272798} | 0 | 1650932594512 | 50.10815327903273 | KlimentSerafimov | 1650890487296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoNC5MlDBCIg_egMTCcyRSi4YLzPRqfCltRiu-ww=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 1650922961861 | 0.015796576956035244 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6294987114001478 | QCCo9fvKwR6e7Kakin6b | {"NO": 916.4632939111654, "YES": 1038.859940881395} | 0.5998186931075509 | if-bee-switches-from-vim-to-vscode | 2844.4653502516176 | If Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner? | 4102473540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0.4865408746157615 | 9.626164549083278 | False | basic | public | 1650904571813 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She doesn't have to literally kick herself. I will resolve this according to my best judgment. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant facts: She's a Ruby on Rails developer, CTO of Beeminde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030181306892448467} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.570071171765207, "platformFee": 2.633346540613202, "liquidityFee": 15.800079243679212} | 0 | 1000 | dreev | 1719246530591 | 2.4 | 48 | 0 | 33 | 33 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383157372}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.15941302352772388 | 0.5 | 1719246527526 | 1694586397902 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43150649243596306 | aIbYYj2wfX7X72EJHezl | {"NO": 37.52038387378386, "YES": 3038.854001075711} | 0 | will-rsx-the-russian-stocks-etf-res | 4376.677073313949 | Will $RSX, the Russian stocks ETF, resume trading in the US before July 1st? | 1656647940000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0670762118980086 | True | play | NO | public | 1650904718415 | SG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.037379875213666, "platformFee": 0.04098360655737706, "liquidityFee": 0.24590163934426235} | 0 | 1656684732328 | 250.24590163934425 | SG | 1656560769677 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656560769528 | 0.00928470544941542 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17853623754627543 | 776KzB6gfo1jtJRkryrv | {"NO": 70.20448058907374, "YES": 74.49583112778373} | 0 | will-the-concept-of-finops-reach-5x | 250.22005912778476 | Will the concept of, "FinOps" reach 5X its measured interest as a search term on Google Trends by December 31st, 2022? | 1672552740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.996420168928219 | True | play | NO | public | 1650907567298 | Patrick Delaney | Using this page, drawing the popularity of terms timeframe back out to 2004-Present as a measure of relative search interest...
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=finops
The term, "FinOps" only has to reach 5X the March 2022 interest level at one point during the stated duration. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.993604289604139, "platformFee": 0.10572661960729593, "liquidityFee": 0.6343597176437755} | 0 | 1673030662747 | 70.63435971764378 | PatrickDelaney | 1672394309190 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.2 | 1672394308842 | 1650948413755 | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11611801589347229 | ie65e51rpbcQgfzOeHY8 | {"NO": 60.390437571164036, "YES": 194.9738054033693} | 0 | will-the-concept-of-mlops-reach-5x | 125 | Will the concept of, "MLOps" reach 5X its measured interest as a search term on Google Trends by December 31st, 2022? | 1672552740000 | bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.880374174318002 | True | play | NO | public | 1650908008530 | Patrick Delaney | Using this page, drawing the popularity of terms timeframe back out to 2004-Present as a measure of relative search interest...
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=MLOps
The term, "MLOps" only has to reach 5X the March 2022 interest level at one point during the stated duration. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.15716757978423845, "platformFee": 0.026194596630706408, "liquidityFee": 0.15716757978423845} | 0 | 1673030733549 | 70.15716757978424 | PatrickDelaney | 1671953934951 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 1671953934842 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3548461616911607 | EoleMigTcQGLU5blJaU6 | {"NO": 77.98082805237439, "YES": 25.345581669932876} | 0 | will-cea-give-me-money-to-pay-for-1 | 50.49999982251541 | will CEA give me money to pay for 10 WeWork subscriptions for EA Office, San Francisco? | 1651561140000 | 5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.803208325155739 | True | play | NO | public | 1650910817401 | Ruth Grace Wong | market resolves to YES if we get the grant. I expect to hear back by mid-May but that's just a guess.
Apr 25, 4:48pm: I forgot to specify! the grant is for a 3 month pilot, so the amount is $9K
May 24, 8:30am: Just heard back from the grantmaker (actually they had been trying to contact me and i missed the emails, 'd... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1740770361680528, "platformFee": 0.19567950602800882, "liquidityFee": 1.1740770361680528} | 0 | 1653406230071 | 51.17407703616805 | RuthGraceWong | 1651514816137 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1651514814749 | 1651489444103 | 0.6285623315019551 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6196662733203676 | zlbeDYz7J1cyRwZ4D0bS | {"NO": 6157.370665874951, "YES": 574.7307697000359} | 1 | will-donald-trumps-twitter-account | 62089.72400751988 | Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022 | 1668951575957 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4477647930570483 | True | basic | YES | public | 1650913037843 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump is allowed to reopen his Twitter account before midnight on the last day of 2022. This can either be his original account, or a new account but one that is clearly run by him and remains unbanned for at l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.97468408421588, "platformFee": 3.922712644130769, "liquidityFee": 23.536275864784606} | 0 | 1668951575957 | 1473.7756497488735 | VivaLaPanda | 1669035732067 | 0 | 251 | 0 | 201 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529439151}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529514122}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "r... | ["politics-default", "magaland", "internet"] | 0.2 | 1668950884577 | 1669035729196 | 0.9626382903404764 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4661433183597458 | uv1AvfXvU890yLIIY0nj | {"NO": 542.9022774766722, "YES": 3.5469441815859444} | 1 | will-i-invest-in-manifold-markets-i | 751.0698104947944 | Will I invest in Manifold Markets in the next 3 weeks? | 1651352708766 | 7ico4F6n2Eh975l9vwgNIwWHzUJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.682618781050774 | True | play | YES | public | 1650917699616 | vishal | This market resolves to "yes" if a wire transfer of any amount secures cap table allocation in Manifold Markets within 3 weeks. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1858003785248465, "platformFee": 0.36430006308747437, "liquidityFee": 2.1858003785248465} | 0 | 1651352708766 | 52.185800378524846 | vishal | 1650917699616 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx_3Ue3khBGrVt8v8oDJ9uq8WwQXKh3nX8cpjIn=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.42 | 1651351877965 | 1651351999909 | 0.9925732216289975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49167523539755725 | 5xukefbWz9LQjH1jQVYW | {"NO": 3455.687914707427, "YES": 2.3377573538489855} | 1 | will-golden-state-warriors-win-2022 | 4818.696854012687 | Will Golden State Warriors win 2022 NBA title? | 1656658740000 | K25c9n71uYgKyh9KmafGMJ7NhKS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.46241628086926 | True | play | YES | public | 1650927391438 | jazzy app | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.75947618387293, "platformFee": 3.797551525189874, "liquidityFee": 22.78530915113925} | 0 | 1663705717404 | 72.78530915113922 | jazzyapp | 1663705760099 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw1KMM2Jm0QUgy1JMmorY7moHj9F09dAd60cT4Y=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396729}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779911829}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "g... | ["sports-default", "please-resolve", "basketball"] | 0.5 | 1656202611283 | 1663705757691 | False | 0.9993010852426866 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26015804496319045 | 4JywKcwcjdlV4cCfTXoX | {"NO": 247.65664622076545, "YES": 2598.2410167487465} | 0 | will-parag-agrawal-still-be-the-ceo | 2965.4676165482847 | Will Parag Agrawal still be the CEO of Twitter by Dec 31, 2022? | 1667418295764 | 80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3547606221558173 | True | play | NO | public | 1650927541865 | Rex Salisbury | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.843715087624364, "platformFee": 0.307285847937394, "liquidityFee": 1.843715087624364} | 0 | 1667418295764 | 481.8437150876244 | RexSalisbury | 1667418314404 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GguSPe7uqPA_sUt-m1cnsufcTV3grPFZqGZEY7yTdc=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133010}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq", "createdTime": 1683877149858}] | ["internet", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"] | 0.5 | 1667246251719 | 1667418312394 | 0.0324303109178653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5169139396842717 | O9oLDfGlqH1IBXC2aiWA | {"NO": 202.8962996104305, "YES": 15.35434313759841} | 1 | will-the-macbook-pro-i-ordered-on-f | 156.804639626125 | Will the MacBook Pro I ordered on Feb 1st arrive by July 1st? | 1653353605794 | 8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.949601401294684 | True | play | YES | public | 1650934520366 | Adele Lopez | When I placed the order, the expected arrival time was around the end of March / beginning of April. Near the end of March, it updated to be around the end of May, and a couple weeks ago, it updated to Jun 2 to Jun 17 as the arrival window, which is where it remains as of now (April 25th).
The issue seems to be supply... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7943645806668689, "platformFee": 0.2990607634444782, "liquidityFee": 1.7943645806668689} | 0 | 1653353605794 | 51.79436458066687 | adele | 1653353600406 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652896601391 | 1653353598966 | 0.9339479855791424 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | rV9VGQdQjKPqfXIh4eqV | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.4 | will-roger-stone-return-to-twitter | 0 | Will Roger Stone return to Twitter in 2022? | 1650940246572 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.5775512027837895 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650940198223 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from Roger Stone’s Twitter account (twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr) in 2022.
Roger Stone was permanently banned from Twitter in 2017 for harassment of CNN journalists: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/roger-stone-has-been-suspended-from-twitt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1650940246572 | 50 | dglid | 1650940198223 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8244562059102808 | R6JwlNdrNWeL8mjXsufT | {"NO": 358.15841981274025, "YES": 44.844983964394885} | 1 | will-rogerjstonejr-tweet-in-2022 | 278.2052433098331 | Will @RogerJStoneJr tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.97764264997773 | True | play | YES | public | 1650940309103 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from Roger Stone’s Twitter account (twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr) in 2022.
Roger Stone was permanently banned from Twitter in 2017 for harassment of CNN journalists: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/roger-stone-has-been-suspended-from-twi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672578678702 | 110 | dglid | 1672547213789 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.4 | 1672547213646 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5010743113539372 | J6y5rQd523G4a0oWNoka | {"NO": 69.92479255290594, "YES": 37.10539352276969} | 0.6542910817655851 | will-any-of-the-following-companies | 20 | Will any of the following companies: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Twitter, Netflix, or Tesla, start accepting stable-coins as payment for their main products by the end of 2024? | 1651033948691 | OwrYTGe0ddM14XvQoeYpUpBtBXW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.391667561180461 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1650954335376 | Kliment Serafimov | This will be resolved YES if any of the following companies: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Twitter, Netflix, or Tesla officially accept any stablecoins as payment for their main products/services by the end of 2024. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies like USDT or USDC that maintain market price of $1 +/- 0.3%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.451244682564304, "platformFee": 0.07520744709405067, "liquidityFee": 0.451244682564304} | 0 | 1651033948691 | 50.4512446825643 | KlimentSerafimov | 1650954335376 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoNC5MlDBCIg_egMTCcyRSi4YLzPRqfCltRiu-ww=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1650955869359 | 0.6542910817655851 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24868406618138886 | EpOcBFRqFAZv7aGHOgf9 | {"NO": 24.017996520045557, "YES": 553.7012201219115} | 0 | will-realalexjones-tweet-in-2022 | 575.8831971171162 | Will @RealAlexJones tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.8222194849683255 | True | play | NO | public | 1650968219434 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the Twitter account of Alex Jones (twitter.com/RealAlexJones) in 2022.
Alex Jones was permanently banned from Twitter in 2018 for violating its policy on abusive behavior: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45442417 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8613067988399805, "platformFee": 0.2004285892403217, "liquidityFee": 1.2025715354419302} | 0 | 1672578753369 | 51.20257153544193 | dglid | 1668958818114 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.25 | 1668958817994 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1728631792644202 | 2zPa0FhyugLvwY3emJN7 | {"NO": 48.204829493142995, "YES": 325.7363101642323} | 0 | will-infowars-tweet-in-2022 | 455.65863801787486 | Will @infowars tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.820939835506923 | True | play | NO | public | 1650968353100 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the InfoWars Twitter account (twitter.com/infowars) in 2022.
InfoWars was permanently banned from Twitter in 2018 at the same time its founder Alex Jones was banned for violating its policy on abusive behavior: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5277432184010071, "platformFee": 0.10926448306264253, "liquidityFee": 0.655586898375855} | 0 | 1672578913325 | 70.65558689837584 | dglid | 1672547768386 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 1672547768225 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21149077925967194 | 8RJ5O0jBTIC4igZNhLky | {"NO": 37.91060987058016, "YES": 369.67092084186504} | 0 | will-stefanmolyneux-tweet-in-2022 | 339.36798366152027 | Will @stefanmolyneux tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.409691865337264 | True | play | NO | public | 1650968621638 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the Twitter account of Stefan Molyneux (twitter.com/@stefanmolyneux) in 2022.
Stefan Molyneux was permanently banned from Twitter in 2020 for operating fake accounts: https://screenrant.com/twitter-suspends-stefan-molyneux/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.204024315925186, "platformFee": 0.048585763862105245, "liquidityFee": 0.29151458317263146} | 0 | 1672578825455 | 70.29151458317264 | dglid | 1672536669800 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.35 | 1672536668527 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34938452996139746 | C29OoxGtaIPPqzCLqwgi | {"NO": 28.249386016709863, "YES": 149.67092084186507} | 0 | will-drdavidduke-tweet-in-2022 | 139.3679836615203 | Will @DrDavidDuke tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.116693538174987 | True | play | NO | public | 1650968856932 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the Twitter account of former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke (twitter.com/@DrDavidDuke) in 2022.
David Duke was permanently banned from Twitter in 2020 for hateful content: https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/twitter-permanently-bans-white-supr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.204024315925186, "platformFee": 0.048585763862105245, "liquidityFee": 0.29151458317263146} | 0 | 1672578794090 | 50.291514583172635 | dglid | 1667245222598 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 1667245222357 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16866600077635022 | Ei7dAIHefu7XyzVP1m0m | {"NO": 54.360119317060345, "YES": 499.23643612859746} | 0 | will-genflynn-tweet-in-2022 | 450.25116998313393 | Will @GenFlynn tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.407335898472052 | True | play | NO | public | 1650969069230 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the Twitter account of Michael Flynn (http://twitter.com/@GenFlynn) in 2022.
Michael Flynn was permanently banned from Twitter in 2021 for violating Twitter's policy on "Coordinated Harmful Activity" in relation to sharing QAnon content: https://www.nb... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4982981403752868, "platformFee": 0.08304969006254781, "liquidityFee": 0.4982981403752868} | 0 | 1672578720864 | 90.49829814037528 | dglid | 1672546051792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.35 | 1672546051596 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40990170977854673 | WrL5PrcRXDIN8E1haA3x | {"NO": 221.4534413603807, "YES": 13.376422163264753} | 1 | will-mtgreenee-tweet-in-2022 | 309.16988052565944 | Will @mtgreenee tweet in 2022? | 1672334690559 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.530899963313256 | True | play | YES | public | 1650969433465 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the personal Twitter account of Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2022: http://twitter.com/@mtgreenee
Marjorie Taylor Greene’s personal Twitter account was permanently banned from Twitter in 2022 after multiple violations of Twitter's COVID-19 misinformation pol... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3297068394231777, "platformFee": 0.22161780657052965, "liquidityFee": 1.3297068394231777} | 0 | 1672334690559 | 91.32970683942318 | dglid | 1672333766894 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.35 | 1672333766728 | 1672333610408 | 0.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23528571206911764 | xxBKHzETGbTfrSoL9Xcw | {"NO": 45.28867635321171, "YES": 682.7819919122771} | 0 | will-nickjfuentes-tweet-in-2022 | 592.7819919122771 | Will @NickJFuentes tweet in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.069880588579743 | True | play | NO | public | 1650970999179 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from the Twitter account of Nick Fuentes in 2022: http://twitter.com/NickJFuentes
His Twitter account was permanently banned from Twitter in 2021 for repeated violations of Twitter rules: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/07/09/twitter-bans-whi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672578528259 | 90 | dglid | 1672545273773 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 1672545273659 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41776009787432977 | Zv1IDVW0TEbxvyiLyNNl | {"NO": 59.84971993767193, "YES": 91.2527681995286} | 1 | will-thebabylonbee-tweet-again-in-2 | 145.53945519354903 | Will @TheBabylonBee tweet again in 2022? | 1668797745968 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.622472154282658 | True | play | YES | public | 1650971559907 | David Glidden | This market resolves YES if at least one tweet is published from Twitter account of The Babylon Bee in 2022 after March 20th: http://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee
The Twitter account of the news satire website was suspended from Twitter on March 21st, 2022 for hateful content after posting separate attacks on U.S. Heal... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.702472735498542, "platformFee": 0.1676426467081699, "liquidityFee": 1.0058558802490194} | 0 | 1668797745968 | 71.00585588024902 | dglid | 1668813778119 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.45 | 1667620277238 | 1668813777453 | 0.32000000000000095 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05880850757512763 | crv7zpFXXWaYJaqRlwUk | {"NO": 289.8381988538562, "YES": 478.9748958877795} | 0 | will-twitter-make-its-algorithm-tha | 237.65561756096488 | Will Twitter make its algorithm that recommends whether a tweet gets promoted or demoted publicly visible in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.2416976144754965 | True | play | NO | public | 1650973372469 | David Glidden | Elon Musk has mentioned that Twitter should make its algorithm that recommends whether a tweet gets promoted or demoted publicly visible: https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM?t=782
This market resolves YES if Twitter makes its algorithm that recommends whether a tweet gets promoted or demoted publicly visible in 2022, accordi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2277149230354047, "platformFee": 0.265979880416503, "liquidityFee": 1.595879282499018} | 0 | 1672579263052 | 301.595879282499 | dglid | 1667245312779 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133010}] | ["internet"] | 0.05 | 1667245312544 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20717785285857482 | 5gbNgWUv2gFZUPKkrV53 | {"NO": 71.42933821360234, "YES": 188.73092292668863} | 0 | will-twitter-make-it-apparent-when | 184.80188288275394 | Will Twitter make it apparent when tweets are emphasized or de-emphasized by 2023? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.761934420454479 | True | play | NO | public | 1650973819730 | David Glidden | Elon Musk has stated that Twitter should make it apparent when tweets are emphasized or de-emphasized: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/16/elon-musk-twitter-algorithm/
See also Elon Musk's TED interview: https://youtu.be/cdZZpaB2kDM?t=781
This market will resolve YES if, by 2023, multiple prominent m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4024585212220395, "platformFee": 0.08821331832455973, "liquidityFee": 0.5292799099473584} | 0 | 1672579321255 | 90.52927990994736 | dglid | 1672548065620 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133010}] | ["internet"] | 0.15 | 1672548065456 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10334058342265727 | WZGWicFVHMlfee5i3TZN | {"NO": 45.71469168502391, "YES": 136.62429445158077} | 0 | will-twitter-visually-distinguish-a | 153.64411614936654 | Will Twitter visually distinguish authenticated human accounts by 2023? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.16130479069318 | True | play | NO | public | 1650974560962 | David Glidden | Elon Musk has stated that "If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying! And authenticate all real humans": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573
See more:
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/technology/article/elon-musk-twitter-changes-authenticate-humans
This market resolves Y... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4806111742728185, "platformFee": 0.061383078384770966, "liquidityFee": 0.3682984703086258} | 0 | 1672578947618 | 50.36829847030862 | dglid | 1670737595616 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["internet"] | 0.1 | 1670737595464 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22709633548637204 | p3lMHM9uhNrNgI9XfLSC | {"NO": 36.09282106219406, "YES": 345.91604462815053} | 0 | will-russia-attack-moldova-before-t | 2275.513432207562 | Will Russia attack Moldova before the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.172952205764652 | True | play | NO | public | 1650997390681 | littlebubulle | This market resolves to YES if Russian troops or mercenaries paid by Russia attack anything in Moldova.
Pro-Russia elements from inside Moldova don't count even if they were paid/convinced by Russia.
Apr 26, 2:23pm: kind of surprised I didn't find this market on MM. Did I miss one?
Apr 27, 9:53am: Transnistria will ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.72780495843063, "platformFee": 6.097272108413245, "liquidityFee": 36.58363265047947} | 0 | 1672549543129 | 250.86317847188423 | littlebubulle | 1668408858120 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 39 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421149}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662316656167}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId"... | ["world-default", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1668408858022 | 1651039118591 | False | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wqZS2GXj6LT4XKlUAgew | where-will-i-spend-the-plurality-of | 114 | Where will I spend the plurality of my time between May 15 and August 15? | 1651422580183 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.977456264052392 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651017461782 | Tom | I will choose the city or town among the answers in which I spent the most time between May 15 and August 15, inclusive. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651422580183 | 300 | toms | 1651017461782 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0fe8ac8a998d", "prob": 0.19236688211757463, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.26599736615637, "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.2991633420709, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wqZS2GXj6LT4XKlUAgew", "createdTime": 1651017462044, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.503046669914231 | hNSkMDsx2emIsPZNyeue | {"NO": 89.8867400863859, "YES": 29.543213843078533} | 1 | will-pear-get-back-to-us-before-115 | 40 | Will Pear get back to us before 11:59am Friday PST? | 1651084683580 | rcZfrkafZ6VFf233dh416GfV9023 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.461140984724535 | True | play | YES | public | 1651021859917 | Daniel Chang | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6795594816847117, "platformFee": 0.11325991361411863, "liquidityFee": 0.6795594816847117} | 0 | 1651084683580 | 50.67955948168471 | DanielChang | 1651021859917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwnG93b7--KAcY1DdjiSJ4Q_-ePTDalO3LAT5rC=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25503297786455026 | tRDZ6PaWymzk5IOxEZh0 | {"NO": 63.493702214411414, "YES": 20.158925807309966} | 0 | will-my-fortune-cookie-contain-an-a | 823.318903738635 | Will my fortune cookie contain an actual fortune? | 1651431600000 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.104977180363057 | True | play | NO | public | 1651033272776 | LukeW | I have a fortune cookie leftover from the last time I bought Chinese food. Usually my fortune cookies don't contain actual fortunes (as in, making some prediction for my future) but rather contain vague advice or aphorisms. But some times they are actual fortunes, and I like those better.
I'll open the cookie sometime... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5064656972385353, "platformFee": 0.584410949539756, "liquidityFee": 3.5064656972385353} | 0 | 1651444295790 | 53.50646569723853 | LukeW | 1651444294024 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1651244193994 | 1651444290305 | 0.5188277123186533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8006126263594787 | OOAYrvKHBVANuywql6Fk | {"NO": 71.2969189278437, "YES": 46.835328124364864} | 1 | in-2022-will-i-at-any-point-cause-a | 43 | In 2022, will I at any point cause an accidental bug in production during my work on Manifold Markets that someone else notices before I fix it? | 1652131826649 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.825767542707134 | True | play | YES | public | 1651048003056 | Marshall Polaris | Resolves yes if someone else notifies me about a bug in my work that makes it to production before I notice it and fix it myself. "Bug" includes any program behavior that I didn't intend which causes someone to be annoyed. "Bug" is not limited to problems with source code; if I fat finger a deploy and cause some proble... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4638815444027235, "platformFee": 0.07731359073378724, "liquidityFee": 0.4638815444027235} | 0 | 1652131826649 | 50.463881544402724 | mqp | 1652215612833 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.8 | 1651420443362 | 1652215608087 | 0.8594033243986804 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12821633508628774 | rm6O8E4QL2S48GuDciAS | {"NO": 299.9553129436491, "YES": 1479.1039225362986} | 0 | will-zjednoczona-prawica-have-an-ab | 5124.371508181927 | Will Zjednoczona Prawica have an absolute majority in Sejm after next Polish parliamentary elections? | 1699916340000 | IdumZonAqwTVODRNU7k6qmqsASn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3190573281007616 | True | play | NO | public | 1651050176182 | Lassuch | Zjednoczona Prawica - current Polish ruling coalition. If the coalition collapse it refers to the political party under the leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński. If JK resigns etc. it refers to the political party with Marek Suski as a member. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.611831226483661, "platformFee": 0.4353052044139435, "liquidityFee": 2.611831226483661} | 0 | 1702279928886 | 392.6118312264837 | Lassuch | 1702274833686 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzAuxWueuLASjgBY3CPeOFzu14G5n1PC31RXME9ig=s96-c | 29 | 0 | 6 | 10 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929564}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406877}, {"... | ["stefans-group", "global-macro", "poland"] | 0.33 | 1699915609515 | 1702274831724 | 0.03 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8373818852959403 | 2Ig8fvrpMfK9DTbacYm2 | {"NO": 1251.2302624560841, "YES": 941.4262981984506} | 0.8725128844523506 | will-olaf-scholz-remain-the-chancel | 5761.546241884597 | Will Olaf Scholz remain the Chancellor of Germany until the end of 2021-2025 term? | 1761433200000 | IdumZonAqwTVODRNU7k6qmqsASn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.837192213101241 | False | basic | public | 1651052626105 | Lassuch | BINARY | {"day": 0.005464409469842169, "week": 0.011366208825438151, "month": 0.002512884452350983} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.081515229048918, "platformFee": 4.643705044958197, "liquidityFee": 0.6743824589772927} | 50 | 1000 | Lassuch | 1720175381935 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzAuxWueuLASjgBY3CPeOFzu14G5n1PC31RXME9ig=s96-c | 0 | 45 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406875}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "toFuvWdYFchnB6mljZSNrUpQAjf1", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1678113530059}] | ["stefans-group", "germany"] | 0.10825713472062243 | 0.8 | 1720175378246 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6002111413611018 | JwOU5XpFSZLkwKXQRD53 | {"NO": 59.96530274913873, "YES": 44.91558469547695} | 0 | will-t1-win-msi-league-of-legends | 10 | Will T1 win MSI (league of legends)? | 1652223540000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.56470578025517 | True | play | NO | public | 1651061010577 | David Chee | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2081835051675506, "platformFee": 0.03469725086125844, "liquidityFee": 0.2081835051675506} | 0 | 1654345888189 | 50.20818350516755 | SirSalty | 1651061010577 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1651161776709 | 0.6671507208347157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.158473473351424 | NocU12GNKybCVA5FDsC1 | {"NO": 214.57181450189742, "YES": 1427.7896673508067} | 0 | will-jack-dorsey-return-as-twitter | 1264.1866874766501 | Will Jack Dorsey return as Twitter CEO in 2022? | 1672549140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.494524172292744 | True | play | NO | public | 1651068577838 | SG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9210615793967856, "platformFee": 0.3201769298994643, "liquidityFee": 1.9210615793967856} | 0 | 1672628280848 | 291.9210615793968 | SG | 1672547173825 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq", "createdTime": 1683877107516}] | ["internet", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"] | 0.18 | 1672547173710 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48555726144308803 | VkX64bNljQtb08rmVmNa | {"NO": 14.943125093355977, "YES": 216.05430542977416} | 1 | will-the-contractors-who-have-resch | 222 | Will the contractors, who have rescheduled 4 times so far, remove the boulders today? | 1651101183057 | 2xl1KNUcucVtGNAAGiegkuLN6dm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.94115182695521 | True | play | YES | public | 1651073319847 | Matthew Monahan | They were supposed to come yesterday and said they were still coming at 6PM then rescheduled to today. This time they said they didn't have the right equipment so they would need to rent it and that they put in the rental order yesterday. If that's true it would likely increase their chances of showing up today as they... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.384412713735498, "platformFee": 0.3974021189559163, "liquidityFee": 2.384412713735498} | 0 | 1651101183057 | 52.3844127137355 | MatthewMonahan | 1651073319847 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi4tqUbX0yQ3CtRgk96dIpDGWiATfN_-MwVMms=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651101384526 | 0.06127989841044616 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0843908869794663 | LsTRDiVnD2wRc0PBf0sr | {"NO": 156.0565132547207, "YES": 636.342027346416} | 0 | will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-by-the | 1369.9289123148344 | Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | HV1MheYpQtXhe589SeJAFQgl7Ej2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.759760098364259 | True | play | NO | public | 1651087632532 | Mikołaj Kotkowicz | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.875801781060208, "platformFee": 1.4484983761563972, "liquidityFee": 8.690990256938383} | 0 | 1674580599978 | 197.66729595846482 | MikoajKotkowicz | 1674580608004 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgK_i-L3TEiwjWsEXeURizBGnTNFFoE-oU0Ww3K=s96-c | 47 | 0 | 5 | 43 | [{"name": "How It Ends", "slug": "how-it-ends", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "InKUlX3nJIQnJr550GCs", "createdTime": 1671063556389}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663005313559}, {"name": "Russia"... | ["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "how-it-ends", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672232327287 | 1674580605749 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44224859642489456 | JyxZuro85iuUcDsw1biS | {"NO": 18.41711557011938, "YES": 194.8082138678495} | 0 | will-any-horse-win-two-legs-of-the | 145 | Will any horse win two legs of the Triple Crown? | 1654990510807 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.950709655293728 | True | play | NO | public | 1651093083707 | LukeW | This market resolves to "YES" if a horse wins any two of the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes. Resolves to "NO" if the winners of all three races are different. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1507167929030466, "platformFee": 0.1917861321505078, "liquidityFee": 1.1507167929030466} | 0 | 1654990510807 | 51.15071679290305 | LukeW | 1654782179511 | 0 | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400332}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.45 | 1654782179330 | 1652400603228 | 0.06973440498409952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4nJVsEAONW8BVi9sILR7 | what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth | 2563.5761859982067 | What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over the next 3 months? | 1659326340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.637624488303651 | True | play | 29e0c317b708 | public | 1651094207719 | SG | Now that we've finished fundraising, we're looking to grow!
What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months (May, June, July 2022)? Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity end... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.66262851208734, "platformFee": 13.665657128021834, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659376063263 | 959.9999999999998 | SG | 1659377509364 | 0 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0663fcfaa576", "prob": 0.0005182123050249574, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0009964263922097045, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.9218185715297638, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4nJVsEAONW8BVi9sILR7", "createdTime": 1651094207958, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529551247}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1658080674967 | 1659377501269 | {"29e0c317b708": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8056111867947094 | bRqTxDuYRoFgKkX1hdEo | {"NO": 81.75013305873145, "YES": 57.120927918936786} | 0.8557262215861069 | if-eric-shen-buys-a-portable-extern | 45 | If Eric Shen buys a portable external monitor, will he be satisfied with the purchase? | 1653537540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.1970151352506555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651111778360 | Austin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653546102467 | 60.636975622272175 | Austin | 1653504874832 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1653504874652 | 1651144319915 | 0.855726221586107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jvoeUsqaebe6RL5raTqU | which-projects-will-win-the-ea-baha | 768 | Which projects will win the EA Bahamas Hackathon on May 6th? | 1651902642951 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6781533506737984 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651114838898 | Austin | The Manifold team is planning on doing a hackathon at EA Bahamas. Suggest projects here, and predict which project will take first place (as judged by me lol). We're planning on awarding Manifold dollars to projects that we like -- predict what the M$ payout distribution will look like!
I'm planning on giving out the ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.560000000000007, "platformFee": 1.1400000000000017, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651902642951 | 740.0000000000002 | Austin | 1651902538935 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8afd44f1ffa6", "prob": 0.004238552517361111, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.01896233855998695, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.45481461296231, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jvoeUsqaebe6RL5raTqU", "createdTime": 1651114839422, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1651902537708 | 1651873764774 | {"05103b565d17": 1.7543859649122806, "238f2863977b": 1.7543859649122806, "5fbc3dbe1332": 26.31578947368421, "62bb220df530": 1.7543859649122806, "71373ef479bc": 8.771929824561404, "94d664d36173": 35.08771929824562, "9fdd81a6f03c": 17.54385964912281, "f182da28c7e5": 7.017543859649122} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14012540776376908 | kd07TTb4MWSFQX8VMDmR | {"NO": 362.37669576811186, "YES": 6127.701940972398} | 0 | will-ukraine-invade-transnistria-in | 5610.033185009848 | Will Ukraine invade Transnistria in 2022? | 1672549140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7579509032382825 | True | play | NO | public | 1651119491683 | SG | https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1519469901982965766 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5892441065195695, "platformFee": 0.2648740177532616, "liquidityFee": 1.5892441065195695} | 0 | 1672628259321 | 541.5892441065196 | SG | 1671064590398 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664754583078}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664754586584}, {"name": "Ukraine-Rus... | ["world-default", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.15 | 1671064590275 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6811136475191972 | i4jRJzTMjRDk2rdVYTcH | {"NO": 72.89885334076415, "YES": 95.33963676335613} | 1 | just-landed-will-i-get-bitten-by-mo | 188 | Just landed. Will I get bitten by mosquitos in Miami this week? | 1651554628833 | 7ATPEFgGyNQlNzk5dpOmn4y0EFk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5173455077135785 | True | play | YES | public | 1651124422913 | Jay Zhao | This market resolves to "YES" if I got bitten by any mosquitos by Saturday. I plan to be taking meetings outside.
Close date updated to 2022-05-07 11:59 pm
Apr 28, 1:56pm: Update: I’m a type O blood but so far I seem to be safe…
May 2, 10:09pm: Guys - The market resolves to "YES" cuz unfortunately I have collected 3... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7559753081580642, "platformFee": 0.6259958846930108, "liquidityFee": 3.7559753081580642} | 0 | 1651554628833 | 83.75597530815807 | JayZhao | 1651504422937 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjADRjWzqnmWgEozShGu5CrEYbbsvomLGHba0y_3A=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.68 | 1651504422522 | 1651487145815 | 0.6202293162535442 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | m8QJKJIpEXARHwbsDmD5 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.5 | if-democrats-forgive-10000-by-the-m | 0 | If Democrats forgive $10,000 by the midterms will they win the House? | 1651140689343 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651140580831 | Tetra | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ 30% chance this happens by 2024 per Metaculus. The condition for this question is the same as for that question but with a shorter timeframe\n\nhttps://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/27/administration-signals-student-loan-forgiveness-decision-may-come-soon.html Biden is talking about student loan forgiveness here\n\nApr 28, 11:10am: question text should be \"forgive $10,000 in student loans\"" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651140689343 | 50 | Tetraspace | 1651140580831 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46719118770638934 | yohKEOWTk1wOMqZ7m47v | {"NO": 140.847030815624, "YES": 163.10676957330622} | 0.43090623631226543 | if-democrats-forgive-10000-in-feder | 240.73926470683944 | If Democrats forgive $10,000 in federal student debt per person by the midterms will they win the Senate? | 1667951940000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0457486182639113 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651140736138 | Tetra | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ 30% chance this happens by 2024 per Metaculus. The condition for this question is the same as for that question but with a shorter timeframe \n\nhttps://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/27/administration-signals-student-loan-forgiveness-decision-may-come-soon.html Biden is talking about student loan forgiveness here" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668025853237 | 150.79577440858503 | Tetraspace | 1667927626589 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513737}, {"name": "US Student loans", "slug": "us-student-loans", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "lq3LEJta9kjIawjll1Jl", "createdTime": 1661459443233}] | ["politics-default", "us-student-loans"] | 0.5 | 1667927626411 | 1664214495161 | 0.4309062363122653 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23233875788034059 | VSIFOT3AanCcUWfNSiNY | {"NO": 52.58065307186028, "YES": 254.32856722818292} | 0.05888766648646072 | if-democrats-forgive-10000-in-feder-b2e279955f3a | 205.06005119454753 | If Democrats forgive $10,000 in federal student debt per person by the 2022 midterms will they win the House? | 1667951940000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.017267681837729 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651140782545 | Tetra | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ 30% chance this happens by 2024 per Metaculus. The condition for this question is the same as for that question but with a shorter timeframe https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/27/administration-signals-student-loan-forgiveness-decision-may-come-soon.html Biden is talking about student loan forgiveness here" | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668025854791 | 90.62130177514793 | Tetraspace | 1667948340968 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489605}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101200}, {"name": "US Student loans", "slug": ... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-student-loans"] | 0.5 | 1667948340818 | 0.058887666486460724 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2145108915121321 | rbl7P5EXApJYLSQA1ilW | {"NO": 122.08077592683007, "YES": 1149.6674719997693} | 0 | will-twitter-direct-messages-have-e | 1086.8998503589341 | Will Twitter direct messages have end-to-end encryption by 2023? | 1672549140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.817358659645818 | True | play | NO | public | 1651144015869 | David Glidden | On April 27th, Elon Musk tweeted “Twitter DMs should have end to end encryption like Signal, so no one can spy on or hack your messages”: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519469891455234048
See more: https://thehackernews.com/2022/04/twitters-new-owner-elon-musk-wants-dms.html
This market resolves YES if, by 2023... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.518037112279293, "platformFee": 0.5024610568960041, "liquidityFee": 3.0147663413760246} | 0 | 1672579229893 | 213.01476634137603 | dglid | 1672541875927 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["internet"] | 0.2 | 1672541875826 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xFfUrxpYyyDmINtwpSEt | what-will-the-vote-share-in-the-mid | 135 | What will the vote share in the Middlesbrough constituency be in the 2024 UK general election? | 1720076400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CHOOSE_MULTIPLE | public | 1651160292731 | Tetra | Each answer will resolve with a % equal to that party's vote share in the next UK general election in the Middlesbrough constituency | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720166342493 | 400.00000000000006 | Tetraspace | 1720166356976 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a27ac089e8d0", "prob": 0.13717421124828533, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.834126915986467, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.69665830155487, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xFfUrxpYyyDmINtwpSEt", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 165116... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512397}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031695350}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 1682208606830 | 1720166355741 | {"11b0f5bd5887": 17.9440230185718, "140b3f2699a9": 1.113145580841108, "557475af10ac": 4.423518470078763, "6d66117fb1e2": 47.193884965268694, "96f75dd4430e": 3.013921585723835, "a27ac089e8d0": 26.311506379515798} | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5571062251323604 | xB4y1AYqfWD3wuazPFU5 | {"NO": 2019.684668366106, "YES": 178.7620976661301} | 1 | will-aella-join-manifold-and-create | 1746.717922185597 | Will Aella join Manifold and create at least one market before the end of May? | 1652242097358 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0899261221135683 | True | play | YES | public | 1651164156571 | SG | Aella: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl
May 11, 12:06am: Aella's first market: https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-aella-find-someone-new-to-se | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.836976165969798, "platformFee": 1.9728293609949668, "liquidityFee": 11.836976165969798} | 0 | 1652242097358 | 511.8369761659698 | SG | 1652241484288 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.55 | 1652241482896 | 1651266105039 | 0.9342612029742332 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7197170445153867 | sgwSsn09NwLjRDhMIKWI | {"NO": 191.89089559675222, "YES": 105.59378866408309} | 1 | will-austin-pay-more-for-beeminder | 297.3063673209775 | Will Austin pay more for Beeminder than Daniel pays for Manifold by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.960053242989232 | True | play | YES | public | 1651167867118 | Austin | (Daniel is @dreev)
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.823588509322358, "platformFee": 0.30393141822039305, "liquidityFee": 1.823588509322358} | 0 | 1674758405547 | 131.82358850932235 | Austin | 1674774757627 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 11 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664511142486}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669136357934}] | ["beeminder", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1669068665157 | 1674774753911 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5315229260241557 | lS1Euak656rCdR81ynvK | {"NO": 815.8415067266114, "YES": 5.1579911367072615} | 1 | will-a-military-leader-remain-chief-cf575169f3d4 | 916 | Will a military leader remain chief executive in Sudan by April 28, 2023. | 1651611600000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.538942113427274 | True | play | YES | public | 1651172468099 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1229722224125105, "platformFee": 0.520495370402085, "liquidityFee": 3.1229722224125105} | 0 | 1694297475526 | 53.12297222241252 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1694297480226 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040619701}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651454918909 | 1694297478494 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47011018530597937 | x7dMwJTGPEkoO6PZkCiN | {"NO": 6.547349240048093, "YES": 525.872774797319} | 0 | will-the-saf-and-rsf-sign-an-offici | 704 | Will the SAF and RSF sign an official agreement of integration by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.26231329082345 | True | play | NO | public | 1651172505779 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.304217564858575, "platformFee": 0.21736959414309584, "liquidityFee": 1.304217564858575} | 0 | 1694298370428 | 51.304217564858575 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1694298374167 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040614038}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651700977338 | 1694298372536 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5007954559718262 | 4np7JTgCARY6JGGl2ukW | {"NO": 231.38959003196143, "YES": 16.144550206566215} | 0 | will-sudans-transitional-sovereignt | 612 | Will Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council be dissolved by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.670037196430311 | True | play | NO | public | 1651172539279 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.641168987170381, "platformFee": 0.9401948311950638, "liquidityFee": 5.641168987170381} | 0 | 1700931087901 | 55.64116898717039 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1700930892924 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040599747}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651454890743 | 1700930891242 | 0.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5314405322824641 | grocZuliLIz5UUWNGxhj | {"NO": 485.9119852172247, "YES": 8.070999678111274} | 1 | will-general-abdel-fattah-alburhan | 754 | Will General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan retain his position on Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.889348782184781 | True | play | YES | public | 1651172645787 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9924252871135035, "platformFee": 0.49873754785225055, "liquidityFee": 2.9924252871135035} | 0 | 1694297570576 | 52.99242528711351 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1694297573637 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040446386}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651701072580 | 1694297573210 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5191768865486326 | 7f01imZonge2B0I8VnrE | {"NO": 388.00757443680436, "YES": 10.060284107391855} | 1 | will-general-abdel-fattah-alburhan-18f89d06936f | 622 | Will General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo retain their positions as Chair and Deputy Chair of Sudan's Sovereign council, respectively, by April 28, 2023. | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.417374997449624 | True | play | YES | public | 1651172713170 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.3651094937002854, "platformFee": 0.7275182489500476, "liquidityFee": 4.3651094937002854} | 0 | 1694298033043 | 54.36510949370028 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1694298037045 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040590557}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651454840381 | 1694298035419 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4778888041878887 | uOKpAbBzxl4Vw9zUz1H7 | {"NO": 59.73402795094948, "YES": 61.22197907245311} | 0 | will-general-mohamed-hamdan-dagalo | 816.3999709972964 | Will General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo assume the role of Sudan's chief executive by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.912776317389818 | True | play | NO | public | 1651172748914 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.644488757787548, "platformFee": 0.9407481262979249, "liquidityFee": 5.644488757787548} | 0 | 1694297541700 | 55.64448875778755 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1694297546762 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040583091}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651776918853 | 1694297545698 | 0.47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5096909859346733 | 8751hewpqjjRnO79VDds | {"NO": 325.3349411611069, "YES": 12.363693214740419} | 0.9647315074008176 | will-sudans-forces-for-freedom-and | 702 | Will Sudan's Forces for Freedom and Change endorse the Khartoum Resistance Committee charter by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651172797995 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.919677060028499, "platformFee": 0.9866128433380831, "liquidityFee": 5.919677060028499} | 0 | 55.919677060028505 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1702616445125 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040540458}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651453038479 | 1702616444320 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48024839593649665 | JdWES45WtCLlC01ExizC | {"NO": 18.04245480751581, "YES": 230.0899599705536} | 0.0675598980351324 | will-there-be-a-20-percent-increase | 612 | Will there be a 20 percent increase in the number of armed groups, other than JPA signatories, operating within Sudan by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.605496210568603 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651172841577 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703482337597 | 55.747779014324 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1703482332411 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040533595}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651452684207 | 1703482331650 | 0.07 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5360804377052065 | 5lcgq8QZ3XFBQbPsmEXe | {"NO": 496.5685143866148, "YES": 8.595292646585962} | 0.9852416777045389 | will-the-sudanese-liberation-moveme | 869 | Will the sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) renege on the JPA and seek control of the Darfur Region by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651172879028 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.72197768024117, "platformFee": 0.6203296133735284, "liquidityFee": 3.72197768024117} | 0 | 53.721977680241174 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1703545013396 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040466756}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651701097220 | 1703545012796 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5320141479405773 | OI8EWjhzS0xyAIgUje4g | {"NO": 236.6876438765342, "YES": 17.660115499595072} | 0 | will-the-sudan-liberation-front-slm | 782 | Will the Sudan Liberation Front (SLM, JEM, SLM-N) renege on the JPA and seek sovereignty in their respective area of operations by April 28, 2023? | 1651809540000 | 81u2LJd1N5cUmKzL1OyU6TZ8cp42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.714869770310373 | True | play | NO | public | 1651172921612 | CUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.038395885625273, "platformFee": 0.8397326476042124, "liquidityFee": 5.038395885625273} | 0 | 1698627852169 | 55.03839588562528 | CoupUprisingRebellion | 1698627849167 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1687040459437}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1651700870952 | 1698627848508 | 0.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36520893555818923 | oRRRCVTh2ITQzxPrRYfm | {"NO": 91.2979637279274, "YES": 42.70047694690411} | 0.53 | how-many-followers-will-i-have-on-t | 48.34508550301329 | How many followers will I have on Twitter by December? [x / 10]% | 1667257200000 | BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.926111081266023 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651175494646 | Uzay | My account is https://twitter.com/uzpg_. This resolves to my follower count on December 1st divided by 10. Market closes on November 1st.
Related: https://twitter.com/uzpg_/status/1476534211259420673 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7454380970286181, "platformFee": 0.12423968283810302, "liquidityFee": 0.7454380970286181} | 0 | 1668126297510 | 70.74543809702863 | uzpg | 1667245367868 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.28 | 1667245367743 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4965348183839792 | RyKS2zS3nONRouulGST7 | {"NO": 27.20839662714618, "YES": 98.86356636434088} | 1 | will-the-giant-scale-be-permanently | 49 | Will the giant scale be (permanently) moved from Noisebridge by June 1st? | 1654726980000 | FfLzliE1lMVKx3DQeEo84jJieRt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.494264804427841 | True | play | YES | public | 1651184763452 | Danny O'Brien🤖 | The market resolves YES if the scale is in the possession of someone or something that is not Noisebridge (i.e. it's not just outside Noisebridge's gates, or something) who doesn't plan to bring it back, and it's still not there by market close (June 8th 2022). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.818601813954819, "platformFee": 0.13643363565913647, "liquidityFee": 0.818601813954819} | 0 | 1658008830383 | 50.818601813954814 | DannyOBrien | 1658008855792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giey4724bWiZCcfL-l3K94KluaBKfVSKoKYQJawmkibUV4=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654657813388 | 1658008851297 | 0.21347981438155764 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AVjIRRQ1S0oLqo6yZBa1 | when-will-i-receive-an-external-bat | 119.31491265412615 | When will I receive an external battery (part #01AV452) for my ThinkPad from Encompass (Lenovo Parts and Accessories)? | 1651647540000 | 0nDYxA5ER9QjsUXxVFfvdHtvpQx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.016673959304991 | True | play | a76cd4336e0b | public | 1651186961580 | Zian Choy | My ThinkPad T480 has two batteries. The "internal" one can only be replaced by partially disassembling the computer. The other one can be swapped out by pulling two latches. I'm calling the easy-to-access one the "external battery". Its part number is 01AV452.
Timeline of events:
April 2, 2022: Placed order for the i... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.200000000000001, "platformFee": 0.8000000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653283435523 | 280 | ZianChoy | 1653283433762 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzkVD4cwwUKKFKdeVDEB_hOByKSySjA5MN_WPtR=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9bff79d8f864", "prob": 0.24660944530999393, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.456064036218486, "userId": "0nDYxA5ER9QjsUXxVFfvdHtvpQx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 74.71314663807921, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AVjIRRQ1S0oLqo6yZBa1", "createdTime": 1651186961770, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1651579989146 | 1653283430046 | {"a76cd4336e0b": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32074150868043116 | dD9eRM8q2Xtfb9h72bvZ | {"NO": 17.462403810063947, "YES": 585.7613732305342} | 0 | will-the-linked-market-be-resolved | 535 | Will the linked market be resolved (by anyone) before June 1st? | 1654005540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.174735377846087 | True | play | NO | public | 1651189242935 | Undox | The market in question is https://manifold.markets/Undox/market-resolution-is-yes-but-undox. Resolves YES if I resolve it (I promised not to though!) or someone else does, such as an admin, moderator, or even hacker will count. Resolves NO if the linked market is still unresolved when this market closes.
Apr 29, 9:40a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4317606167945247, "platformFee": 0.23862676946575417, "liquidityFee": 1.4317606167945247} | 0 | 1654242086051 | 52.431760616794534 | Undox | 1653885403681 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1653885401878 | 0.013881377000763888 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4248420133251001 | vqJGOFgfA6bBPbBkZBKS | {"NO": 319.2332985513059, "YES": 5.385364121164612} | 1 | will-manifold-users-get-a-daily-fre | 288.1900257682091 | Will Manifold users get a daily free market on June 1st, 2022? | 1654145940000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.812074444120268 | True | play | YES | public | 1651191394837 | tenadome | Manifold Markets added a "daily free market" feature today (I think). This lets users create one market each day for free.
This market resolves YES if this feature still exists on June 1st, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4600540829096786, "platformFee": 0.5766756804849466, "liquidityFee": 3.4600540829096786} | 0 | 1654174670708 | 53.460054082909686 | nmehndir | 1653614818814 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1653614817511 | 1651196605025 | 0.9776715004852626 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40716628750943945 | bSk6I2VuS73VX1lYU2Br | {"NO": 233.78202140374026, "YES": 110.74980752252347} | 1 | will-i-finish-a-triathlon | 450 | Will I finish a triathlon | 1651809540000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9598713456657986 | True | play | YES | public | 1651194433313 | Nuño Sempere | 750m swimming, 5K running, 20K on a bike. I'm in pretty bad shape, but I intend to go slowly.
At a slow pace, 750m swimming = half an hour, 5k running = an hour, 20km bike = an hour.
This site: https://www.triathlete.com/training/dear-coach-what-is-a-good-triathlon-time-for-a-beginner/ claims that a good triathlon... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.248269834710673, "platformFee": 1.8747116391184457, "liquidityFee": 11.248269834710673} | 0 | 1652751452767 | 161.24826983471073 | NuñoSempere | 1652800066371 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1651792578565 | 1652800065942 | 0.5918028304355848 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000054462674317 | Wh5EP4xtI5F2LUSaCKqB | {"NO": 42.67331337661463, "YES": 58.72231957051888} | 0 | will-the-linked-market-be-accurate | 11 | Will the linked market be accurate at time of resolution? | 1657947540000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.402635610873029 | True | play | NO | public | 1651194944640 | tenadome | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*****09/21/2022: I have not forgotten about this market. Caltech has not posted its 2022-2023 CDS yet (I checked https://finance.caltech.edu/Resources/cds). This market will resolve as soon as data becomes available, but I do not know for sure when... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4468218131423217, "platformFee": 0.004900999803960009, "liquidityFee": 0.029405998823760052} | 0 | 1687286159683 | 50.02940599882376 | nmehndir | 1657904403850 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 1657904403734 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8361111982483157 | ERuWWPinlali9kzvtvNt | {"NO": 1341.2142893057605, "YES": 247.71869610437258} | 1 | will-anyone-get-more-than-10-in-the | 2724.209881692254 | Will anyone get more than 10% in the 2024 Iowa caucuses against Trump? | 1705378780381 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1550918749923724 | True | play | YES | public | 1651196377168 | Conflux | If Donald Trump is a candidate, will any other candidate get more than 10% of the vote in the 2024 Iowa caucuses?
If Trump doesn’t run in it, this market will resolve N/A. If Iowa for some reason holds a primary instead, its results will count for this market. If any other weird scenarios arise, I will try to fairly ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6142411646542563, "platformFee": 0.23351170087520418, "liquidityFee": 1.401070205251225} | 0 | 1705378780381 | 371.40107020525124 | Conflux | 1705378788351 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529437709}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1659998053718}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-... | ["magaland", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.3 | 1705377435707 | 1705378786717 | 0.97 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3850082211828214 | 7K6BQrtu3IE6btWHwOfa | {"NO": 200.88487811919106, "YES": 223.58312325243514} | 0.36 | how-far-into-2023-will-the-sequel-t | 708.4043632850673 | How far into 2023 will "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" release? | 1683841946282 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.14295565852862313 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651200895141 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage of the year that has passed in UTC when I can soonest play the game. Resolves NO if (by some miracle) the game releases before 2023, YES if after 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8831792536001086, "platformFee": 0.13046857673300286, "liquidityFee": 0.7828114603980171} | 0 | 1683841946282 | 210.78281146039802 | NcyRocks | 1683499519380 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom", "slug": "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0rzViuhetWiDL54m6Ssv", "createdTime": 1673304523953}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTA... | ["nintendo", "gaming", "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1683499519239 | 1680161999256 | 0.36 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6057867778819717 | QN8VipDLW4AwMWGhHVOm | {"NO": 176.85873556263064, "YES": 24.214945360810606} | 1 | will-a-major-ethereum-testnet-have | 138 | Will a major Ethereum testnet have gone through the merge by the end of August? | 1654705117323 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.88740375527717 | True | play | YES | public | 1651205605584 | Bolton Bailey | This market resolves to "YES" if, by the end of August (U.S. Central Time), at least one of the Rinkeby, Kovan, Ropsten, or Goerli Ethereum testnets has gone through the merge and switched to proof-of-stake. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.512687038975216, "platformFee": 0.2521145064958694, "liquidityFee": 1.512687038975216} | 0 | 1654705117323 | 51.512687038975216 | BoltonBailey | 1654699547778 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665695008157}] | ["ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.6 | 1654699546235 | 1653248572688 | 0.8812850356599178 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7509065444883172 | ru3RrO9ijZpM0hxl5grB | {"NO": 74.97176883071742, "YES": 44.974398615343965} | 0.8340312386514643 | conditional-on-an-accountlinked-man | 43 | Conditional on an account-linked Manifold Discord bot that allows betting and market creation being added to the MM Discord, will at least 5 users use this bot on June 1st, 2022? | 1654066800000 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.827547173528406 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651207091181 | Marshall Polaris | This is a potential Manifold Markets feature I or somebody else might work on. It could use a not-currently-existing API for market operations to provide a text-based interface for Discord users to create markets (e.g. `!manifold create "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" 99% M$50`) and betting on markets (e.g. `!manifold be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654718920640 | 50.53919896616976 | mqp | 1651207091181 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888109}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.75 | 1651296129550 | 0.8340312386514642 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5934046838553007 | l8Pl5WDyOOHXrnXoUBHZ | {"NO": 47.17792270461015, "YES": 69.57076862362884} | 1 | when-i-click-random-article-on-wiki | 241 | When I click "Random article" on Wikipedia, will the result be a Person or a Place? | 1651345200000 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.108454360587413 | True | play | YES | public | 1651209735401 | LukeW | On April 30th, I will click "Random article" on Wikipedia once. If the resulting article is of a Person or a Place, this marked resolves "YES". If the result is neither a person nor a place, this market resolves "NO". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.7466087483719175, "platformFee": 0.7911014580619864, "liquidityFee": 4.7466087483719175} | 0 | 1651350805905 | 54.74660874837192 | LukeW | 1651209735401 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1651340489941 | 1651350799850 | 0.49740996698981194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4931140226644997 | bNG1nstjLSPvWeitK7zF | {"NO": 20.37908105416859, "YES": 137.80670033886972} | 0 | will-austin-regret-letting-users-cr | 88 | Will Austin regret letting users create markets for free | 1652684340000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.678266967181563 | True | play | NO | public | 1651216537246 | Adam | People not having "skin in the game" in market creation may lead to lower quality markets. Conversely, more markets does seem like a pretty unequivocally good thing for MM, so it's hard to say.
on 5/31 I will ask Austin how he thinks the question should resolve, and resolve it accordingly. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1597979667815792, "platformFee": 0.19329966113026326, "liquidityFee": 1.1597979667815792} | 0 | 1654062502515 | 51.15979796678158 | Adam | 1654062500516 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1652619883926 | 1654062496359 | 0.12576999572328412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6157369257063408 | LvaUH57hjcHgHv2jhLI8 | {"NO": 541.562124092152, "YES": 11.503402370227139} | 1 | will-dave-let-us-take-his-big-van-t | 1155 | Will Dave let us take his big van to big thief tn? | 1651335311031 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.186282290688037 | True | play | YES | public | 1651240803254 | Ian Philips | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5775171719179121, "platformFee": 0.09625286198631869, "liquidityFee": 0.5775171719179121} | 0 | 1651335311031 | 50.57751717191791 | ian | 1651240803254 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.6 | 1651266935458 | 1651335296963 | 0.9869174527725042 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30586330927622707 | oiexjTSL14ULlOSqR82g | {"NO": 503.322859820298, "YES": 684.4269335184126} | 0 | will-manifold-hire-a-head-of-growth | 206 | Will Manifold hire a Head of Growth before July 2022? | 1656647940000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7889510669725526 | True | play | NO | public | 1651241025957 | SG | Job listing: https://bit.ly/manifold-jobs
We're looking for someone with a proven track record of scaling an early- to mid-stage startup. If you know somewhat that fits the bill, please reach out! (And bid up this market — you can think of your winnings as a headhunter fee!) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7298089121747413, "platformFee": 0.6012440162297191, "liquidityFee": 3.6074640973783145} | 0 | 1656684680133 | 553.6074640973783 | SG | 1656508841442 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656508840138 | 0.24473722271799514 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08895054064982084 | wcT2FaA9SPmXquIdxlZJ | {"NO": 140.07890065261063, "YES": 1444.1547634840033} | 0 | by-the-end-of-2022-will-manifold-su | 1563.6365829737176 | By the end of 2022 will Manifold support me passing the resolution to a trusted 3rd party? | 1672588081812 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.5661094091998775 | True | play | NO | public | 1651241946435 | Tetra | One issue with Manifold is trusting an unknown market creator. One way to reduce this could be to give control of the market resolution to a trustworthy third party.
This market resolves YES if I can give a moderator, admin or other trusted person control of the resolution of this question through official channels b... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1801636294491017, "platformFee": 0.030027271574850287, "liquidityFee": 0.1801636294491017} | 0 | 1672588081812 | 180.1801636294491 | Tetraspace | 1672581109656 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 0.15 | 1672581109508 | 1665657911395 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.75 | W2PWr1s7FOxTb1IcfHZL | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.75 | will-i-continue-graduate-school-tow | 0 | Will I continue graduate school towards being a professor of computer science? | 1657518173907 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.859265539563254 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651242123957 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | Note that the three pressures against this are 1) I would likely be transitioning as a teacher, 2) I dislike doing research, and 3) I have major depression | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657518173907 | 50 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1655942412407 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492228}] | ["olivia"] | 0.75 | 1655942390851 | 0.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6576921787234148 | qttBh1HnemjkxQHpU6Lp | {"NO": 51.327374978250646, "YES": 87.4534399802348} | 0.53 | will-eu-try-to-buy-more-than-10-of | 177.2078458151371 | Will EU try to buy more than 10% of its yearly gas consumption from Russia in 2023? | 1672484400000 | PYPwQZRTwsdm1mh8eVABn28ENMx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651242307755 | Johnny English | This market resolves to "YES" if on 1. 1. 2023 EU will have confirmed plans to buy non-neglibile supplies of gas from Russia.
Note EU was buying about 30-35% of all its gas supplies (both liquid and gaseous) in 2021 from Russia. | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7009408971909366, "platformFee": 0.28349014953182283, "liquidityFee": 1.7009408971909366} | 0 | 71.70094089719095 | JohnnyEnglish | 1672480046016 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyCMk97J2pFSSb78YQsvpbUYDLkM4TEyDISTUwM=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 107 | 9 | 0.7 | 1672480044780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3796940512825039 | OG8eKV4Wx0wT5tcChjZi | {"NO": 41.77852348993288, "YES": 134.79198767334356} | 0 | will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-angola | 104.00000000000003 | Will there be a civil war in Angola in 2022? | 1669957140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.1127413729967675 | True | play | NO | public | 1651244692831 | Enopoletus Harding | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Yes if there is a civil war in Angola in 2022. It resolves to No if there is no civil war. This market will be resolved at the end of 2023 by looking at Wikipedia and judging if a civil war began in Angola in 2022 (Syria was... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1693234908988 | 70 | EnopoletusHarding | 1669880533125 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 54 | 4 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416812}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1669880518461 | 1669880530219 | 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3966207571470273 | c6Ke9VU4Qv2ql1Vbpknr | {"NO": 26.560810923745898, "YES": 141.0446030603943} | 1 | will-the-first-warhammer-40000-mini | 144.2090846761504 | Will the first Warhammer 40,000 miniatures in the "Leagues of Votann" range be released before October 1, 2022? | 1664295949985 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.824644968393262 | True | play | YES | public | 1651244732530 | Peter Berggren | Recently, Games Workshop, the makers of Warhammer 40,000, have announced that "Squats," a faction from older Warhammer 40,000 editions, will be reintroduced as "Leagues of Votann." However, they have been vague about the launch date, saying only "late 2022" for their launch time.
This market resolves to YES if any War... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7497702792344834, "platformFee": 0.12496171320574723, "liquidityFee": 0.7497702792344834} | 0 | 1664295949985 | 50.74977027923448 | PeterBerggren | 1664295919332 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.4 | 1664295919161 | 1651351633161 | 0.11015050423677103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7366269734130686 | oxLWXKTb0FwRdQUM7Eyj | {"NO": 1011.5911319289365, "YES": 982.3617019962388} | 0.7422757172392459 | will-pope-francis-die-in-office | 1102.2933358481987 | Will Pope Francis die in office? | 1958256000000 | zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.5875466523942 | False | basic | public | 1651244861996 | DELETE CLUB | Pope Benedict was the first pope in 6 centuries to resign from office. Will Pope Francis choose to continue Benedict's trend, or will he die in office? | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.00025990235755946056} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.727014407712204, "platformFee": 2.2253693219331967, "liquidityFee": 0.9070561343343742} | 0 | 1000 | DELETECLUB | 1719321071967 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhXaEXsl0aQLd-mwMjrJHnjBLnz2CE5XLk0ErvN=s96-c | 1 | 43 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1672828978948}] | ["religion"] | 0.5 | 1719321068841 | 1719168001986 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | ZK2HVDgCoFeVCmYxgd5s | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 1 | daily-market | 0 | Daily market | 1651247680006 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | YES | public | 1651247668968 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651247680006 | 50 | Jenny | 1651247668968 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.