p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | Km6897iZ9BhXpLL1Es2a | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | will-ispace-successfully-launch-a-h | 0 | Will i-Space successfully launch a Hyperbola-1 rocket before July? | 1652495017014 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | NO | public | 1651250568655 | wasabipesto | In July 2019, i-Space successfully launched the Hyperbola-1 and reached low Earth orbit on its maiden flight, becoming the first private company from China to achieve orbit. A second launch of the Hyperbola-1 in February 2021 failed to reach orbit, as did the third attempt in August 2021. A fourth launch was planned fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652495017014 | 50 | wasabipesto | 1652494973733 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652494968848 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5016716748593867 | 883I2Gg7dLe9MSnIDdIJ | {"NO": 3.763338639021228, "YES": 684.1792138939815} | 0 | will-ronald-acuna-jr-steal-30-bases | 687.4756708607242 | Will Ronald Acuna Jr steal 30 bases this year? | 1664764538993 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.708586006997896 | True | play | NO | public | 1651251213211 | BCG | Regular season stats only - playoffs don't count
Close date updated to 2022-10-02 11:09 pm
May 18, 4:44pm: #sports | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5928607078905184, "platformFee": 0.09881011798175307, "liquidityFee": 0.5928607078905184} | 0 | 1664764538993 | 50.592860707890516 | BruceGrugett | 1664761891362 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397218}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1664761891185 | 1664746364570 | 0.005506925413895555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4977379978722318 | ZKhCVZRz2nZFc3ADI3Ni | {"NO": 47.74969842588483, "YES": 56.05718774789143} | 0.45773914500814683 | will-we-get-a-costco-membership-by | 56 | Will we get a costco membership by Kait's birthday? (June 16th) | 1655445540000 | uk5nGCAiufNnu0IT3qFWH8Xgfbo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3078385370812295 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651251442422 | Jerks Bentley | This market resolves to YES if we have a costco membership by Kait's birthday | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697239615382 | 50.85916841341387 | JerksBentley | 1697239637547 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwFpwZw4RJxa36uFPvFDk0yfqQUaMbKB1m-0bde=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 | 1655441838588 | 1697239636841 | 0.46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.805283236383142 | MmF68GRewZHecpCpjWKm | {"NO": 294.6558945899652, "YES": 82.91216845288903} | 0 | will-the-us-forgive-10000-in-federa | 1854.4394993387739 | Will the US forgive $10,000 in federal student debt per person by the 2022 midterms? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.999945068856409 | True | play | NO | public | 1651256958015 | Tetra | Resolves the same as this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ but with a deadline of 2022.
Apr 29, 7:29pm: deadline of the 2022 midterms (November 8th) to be precise | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.244180194390637, "platformFee": 0.23979134745715575, "liquidityFee": 1.4387480847429346} | 0 | 1668025830533 | 140.43874808474294 | Tetraspace | 1668025171073 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483435}, {"name": "US Student loans", "slug": "us-student-loans", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "lq3LEJta9kjIawjll1Jl", "createdTime": 1661459443233}] | ["politics-default", "us-student-loans"] | 0.2 | 1667862011844 | 1668025168698 | 0.9362954108833292 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4957591304757788 | ss4kOCKYjdUQIbkvucEr | {"NO": 56.20119636337763, "YES": 60.856690744190786} | 0 | will-i-get-to-inbox-0-by-the-end-of | 344.96659946074374 | Will I get to inbox 0 by the end of the May? | 1654153140000 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9895366903666973 | True | play | NO | public | 1651260621802 | Eli Tyre | My personal inbox, which currently has 3,685 emails in it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.2916061717415825, "platformFee": 0.7152676952902637, "liquidityFee": 4.2916061717415825} | 0 | 1661199338946 | 54.29160617174158 | EliTyre | 1654150287165 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654150285655 | 1651271373646 | 0.4758818295845837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62TOKbcjnJqViUrANfMA | what-color-and-texture-hair-will-my | 253.91963732217096 | What color and texture hair will my nephew have when he is born? | 1660888740000 | UWIvvH8LeJSkQbtfGW4YUSrcw7F2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.850302477605974 | True | play | baf78768794a | public | 1651264888339 | ollie_oxenfreez | My brother has very dark, very curly hair and is of Irish/Jewish descent. His wife has straight blonde hair and is of Irish/German descent. Me and my brother have ancestors with red hair on both paternal & maternal sides. What do we think? He’s due at the end of august | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11678549288683826, "platformFee": 0.029196373221709565, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664750042044 | 340 | K8 | 1664753048023 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fc315df25311", "prob": 0.28269172299457573, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.845329106027123, "userId": "UWIvvH8LeJSkQbtfGW4YUSrcw7F2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 63.04309168973792, "textFts": "", "contractId": "62TOKbcjnJqViUrANfMA", "createdTime": 1651264888452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 6 | 1660721309277 | 1664753040013 | {"baf78768794a": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10051518295598112 | w5EEpFUbAlaByd2LaBtM | {"NO": 109.92237191717021, "YES": 47.009172445937494} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve | 10 | Will this market resolve? | 1651265227696 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.704035769524823 | True | play | YES | public | 1651265198821 | Scott Lawrence | This market resolves to "yes" if it ever resolves. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4657684969787939, "platformFee": 0.07762808282979898, "liquidityFee": 0.4657684969787939} | 0 | 1651265227696 | 100.4657684969788 | ScottLawrence | 1651265198821 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1651265213887 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20964449565700607 | gdW9H6y8OMFMwC7yX3Rp | {"NO": 171.27876550858142, "YES": 124.48518588284442} | 0 | will-there-be-any-downside-to-delet | 187.8666428966032 | Will there be any downside to deleting our Firestore indexes? | 1681067598292 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9395192156702232 | True | play | NO | public | 1651266185663 | Austin | (Conditional on us actually deleting our indices)
@James claims 10% but I'm a bit more skeptical
Apr 29, 5:11pm: Specifically, we're considering removing our Firestore indexes file, which are kind of drifting out of sync with the actual indexes as used by Firestore. See discussion: https://discord.com/channels/9151387... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681087437712 | 160.2274328967826 | Austin | 1681067580392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [] | [] | 0.2 | 1680787067489 | 1681067577955 | 0.27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4016836688134519 | zzl5XMEEw5rSFMRsPVIY | {"NO": 193.06473160073506, "YES": 83.55976163183175} | 1 | will-the-new-york-jets-win-7-games | 70.88194047779588 | Will the New York Jets win 7+ games in 2022? | 1670034974076 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3543677171063075 | True | play | YES | public | 1651272787441 | David Glidden | https://twitter.com/jpafootball/status/1520136815512018944 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.19044987634306354, "platformFee": 0.03174164605717726, "liquidityFee": 0.19044987634306354} | 0 | 1670034974076 | 140.19044987634305 | dglid | 1667246411075 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1670078780502}] | ["nfl"] | 0.35 | 1667246410868 | 0.6080228067835178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4985685351427202 | xvvMJEPpmV2D2upQsFTw | {"NO": 69.81531272066263, "YES": 149.8198792583471} | 0.3166291915768986 | will-the-uk-housing-market-signific | 50 | Will the UK housing market significantly improve for buyers by the end of 2022? | 1651351437740 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.802513763639734 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651276714396 | Austin | This market resolves to "yes" if the UK housing market significantly improves by the end of 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.080724449917446, "platformFee": 0.18012074165290765, "liquidityFee": 1.080724449917446} | 0 | 1651351437740 | 101.08072444991745 | Austin | 1651276714396 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769999}] | ["housing-markets"] | 0.5 | 1651350675961 | 1651351432803 | 0.3166291915768986 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fDFgqIoIEhRb2R7O1if8 | which-millennium-prize-problem-will | 407.1385770022024 | Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? (OLD MECHANISM) | 1687482657519 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651277734783 | N.C. Young | As judged by the Clay Math Institute. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.151430507579621, "platformFee": 0.03785762689490525, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 820 | NcyRocks | 1687482656482 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7d73172b546d", "prob": 0.06822079587621083, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7932033373418212, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.49208569088434, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fDFgqIoIEhRb2R7O1if8", "createdTime": 1651277734957, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9317792041... | 72 | 13 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1662611151492}, {"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime":... | ["mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems"] | 0.09951212728280603 | 1683515648485 | 1687482653191 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3472244920524031 | F240pflAAgxfZwgKUXHq | {"NO": 571.1056214427906, "YES": 142.00606296964403} | 1 | will-johnny-depp-win-his-2022-defam | 2548.325316101912 | Will Johnny Depp win his 2022 defamation trial against Amber Heard? | 1653882240000 | AGbWKY589IX2exZpit7o4GIxPYn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2813477583695887 | True | play | YES | public | 1651280252727 | Solomon Sia |
Close date updated to 2022-05-21 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-29 11:44 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.93940472130766, "platformFee": 5.8232341202179425, "liquidityFee": 34.93940472130766} | 0 | 1654137336171 | 334.93940472130765 | SolomonSia | 1654137315850 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg4WoZy9dmB-3k8mi6fYQsxDYjUqOVQEr1dp2Ag=s96-c | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1653882158343 | 1654137312892 | 0.6814498307409863 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45473877944240726 | Fucl7sja67ZJgCO5wBkI | {"NO": 122.2185174122654, "YES": 216.5974432860263} | 1 | in-cote-divoire-will-president-ouat | 70.23207556529259 | In Côte d'Ivoire, will President Ouattara complete the revision of the constitution before the 2023 local elections? | 1693627140000 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | cpmm-1 | 0.19359782159820257 | 2.0108749772949976 | True | play | YES | public | 1651283828972 | Pepe | About the [constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ivory_Coast) of the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1695705339605 | 160 | Pepe | 1695628750572 | 1.1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.0936030007763795 | 0.5 | 1689820397770 | 1695628749937 | 0.32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24912783877711853 | qNFkaUANcLnR2PBrCP1S | {"NO": 83.64574279310467, "YES": 192.6250829417353} | 0 | will-my-household-have-any-packages | 121 | Will my household have any packages pirated between now and the end of May? | 1654066740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.713565843628513 | True | play | NO | public | 1651287422089 | Alicorn | We have a Nest camera so we should be able to check if we aren't sure. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4817522039303281, "platformFee": 0.2469587006550547, "liquidityFee": 1.4817522039303281} | 0 | 1654105014539 | 101.48175220393036 | Alicorn | 1654056759843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1654056758513 | 0.12593108274640988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7 | EWsxvs6JoIyzoV2VS1ee | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-the-tv-show-our-flag-means-dea | 0 | Will the TV show Our Flag Means Death be renewed for a second season? | 1654107965816 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3007008598092638 | True | play | YES | public | 1651288044888 | wasabipesto | Our Flag Means Death is an American period romantic comedy television series created by David Jenkins. Set in 1717 during the Golden Age of Piracy, the series follows the misadventures of aristocrat-turned-pirate Stede Bonnet (Rhys Darby) and his crew aboard the Revenge as they try to make a name for themselves as pira... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654107965816 | 100 | wasabipesto | 1654107975768 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1654107973977 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | tmqyP3u6aJEMvrae6st2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-pitchfork-tag-the-2022-arcade | 0 | Will Pitchfork tag the 2022 Arcade Fire album "We" as Best New Music? | 1651818016075 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.888113252333105 | True | play | NO | public | 1651291001643 | LukeW | This market resolves "YES" if Pitchfork publishes an album review on their website labeling Arcade Fire's 2022 release "We" as "Best New Music". Resolves to "No" otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651818016075 | 100 | LukeW | 1651291001643 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3386507246709187 | 7YgzKUUGHNvpBgU4Tya0 | {"NO": 433.71912064574497, "YES": 6.349760114252704} | 1 | will-i-make-it-to-my-doctors-appoin | 572 | Will I make it to my doctor's appointment on Monday? | 1651510800000 | 8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.8741088873373455 | True | play | YES | public | 1651295181805 | Elena | My original planned flight time arrived into SFO at around 1pm on Sunday, May 1st. Two days ago, Alaska Airlines sent me an update letting me know my travels plans would be changing. They have still not sent me new flight information. I have an important and time-sensitive doctor's appointment on May 2nd at 1pm, in San... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.644003854732729, "platformFee": 0.774000642455455, "liquidityFee": 4.644003854732729} | 0 | 1651648277106 | 104.64400385473273 | Elena | 1651538419001 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1651509926715 | 1651538414899 | 0.9722038305495738 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2782151408232626 | Lx30AO6nfaHhm24fJFK9 | {"NO": 822.9116735961965, "YES": 1240.208787068329} | 0.20366903885542023 | will-the-lord-of-the-rings-the-ring | 1183.1702499356857 | Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least four seasons? | 1861941540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.70678306645069 | False | basic | public | 1651296500043 | Bolton Bailey | This resolves YES if the Amazon series "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" has four seasons produced and aired on Amazon by the end of 2028. If the series is cancelled by Amazon before four seasons, or if 2028 ends without four seasons airing, this resolves to No. | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.305825026191958, "platformFee": 0.2740198662396266, "liquidityFee": 1.6441191974377596} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1701856240938 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1659494528357}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.43 | 1701856240699 | 1665855919706 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06830234501898139 | ku6BY2EWDvEFuOGAOorT | {"NO": 142.68002789389857, "YES": 720.6046483647912} | 0 | aella-girl-will-be-elon-musks-girlf | 3051.9654187332726 | Aella girl will be Elon musk’s girlfriend by end of 2022 | 1672559940000 | diwmn2cEH5WYieMianB3i0NKXd73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.847796565613201 | True | play | NO | public | 1651301704241 | TBTBTB | Elon is single aella is single that’s all you need to make happen. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.10025592705862, "platformFee": 0.647151909443275, "liquidityFee": 3.8829114566596505} | 0 | 1674696939711 | 183.88291145665966 | tftftftftftftftftftftftf | 1710451945111 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftftftftftftftftftftftftf%2FXEt4hEGLLS.09?alt=media&token=52a8c65d-6154-49d2-bd0d-58823e877c2b | 28 | 0 | 5 | 27 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "please-resolve"] | 0.1 | 1671912075173 | 1651335204470 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26426090811944786 | EZ1SZlmwpwAYXZxsP5DG | {"NO": 155.07866965537403, "YES": 27.434705025361282} | 0.11 | how-many-books-will-i-have-read-in | 51.072461743138014 | How many books will I have read in 2022? | 1672527600000 | BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.970555288505045 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651315000223 | Uzay | Resolves to X%, where X is the number of books I read this year.
I am currently reading Survival In Auschwitz by Primo Levi and the Napkin (a math book) by Evan Chen.
Lists of books I've read recently:
Non fiction: https://knowledge.uzpg.me/dataobj/323/
Fiction: https://knowledge.uzpg.me/dataobj/322/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4657684969787939, "platformFee": 0.07762808282979898, "liquidityFee": 0.4657684969787939} | 0 | 1673310865709 | 120.4657684969788 | uzpg | 1669031300707 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1665694106216}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.1 | 1669031300525 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21904061312744189 | XY1SkAvEbCgn46LtulEn | {"NO": 258.9346658577184, "YES": 480.6030812644039} | 0 | if-mandela-barnes-is-the-2022-wisco | 646.3235401085665 | Will Mandela Barnes (D) win the Wisconsin US Senate seat in 2022? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.556410636544115 | True | play | NO | public | 1651316134363 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 2:28pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Mandela Barnes is the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee, will he win the seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Mandela Barnes win the Wisconsin US Senate sea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.40153222459693505, "platformFee": 0.04015690153018649, "liquidityFee": 0.2409414091811189} | 0 | 1668016722085 | 300.2409414091811 | Tetraspace | 1667862046291 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983496}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491607}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": ... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.3 | 1667862044907 | 1658192895680 | 0.13127503575736726 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2999332347102815 | nTv6K2Jyfic28heuh0bx | {"NO": 95.16675912288808, "YES": 113.96225346711745} | 0.26350067645895964 | if-alex-lasry-is-the-2022-wisconsin | 14 | If Alex Lasry is the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee, will he win the seat? | 1664214313980 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2944292821372523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651316157902 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664214313980 | 100.2264791972952 | Tetraspace | 1663815974445 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504558}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983497}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.3 | 1663815974362 | 0.26350067645895964 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | KraSjAazl6HSvc7DqQPg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1 | if-lucas-kunce-is-the-2022-missouri | 0 | If Lucas Kunce is the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nominee, will he win the seat? | 1664214288053 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.701635339554951 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651316215254 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664214288053 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651316215254 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481979}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983498}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04863504376068889 | MphwgB5Fl7bktdehmZ8g | {"NO": 308.4502770587922, "YES": 1751.8844216390503} | 0 | if-trudy-valentine-is-the-2022-miss | 2024.3907969030652 | Will Trudy Valentine win the Missouri US Senate seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.832160159402275 | True | play | NO | public | 1651316242874 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 10:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Trudy Valentine is the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nominee, will she win the seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Trudy Valentine win 2022 Missouri US Senate ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016748653 | 340 | Tetraspace | 1667862010409 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983498}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483504}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": ... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.1 | 1667862010016 | 1664747131276 | 0.00892052382537356 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.579663206677848 | wB6CnnrjRgIh8jATB4RF | {"NO": 7088.033496936665, "YES": 351.01991671025553} | 1 | if-tina-kotek-is-the-2022-democrati | 8598.849516178925 | Will Tina Kotek (D) be elected governor of Oregon in the 2022 election? | 1668124800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6205203097352525 | True | basic | YES | public | 1651316494684 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 2:26pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Tina Kotek is the 2022 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee for Oregon, will she be elected governor?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Willl Tina Kotek be elected governor of... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.34697554582816154, "platformFee": 0.05782925763802693, "liquidityFee": 0.34697554582816154} | 0 | 1668163789493 | 1280.3469755458282 | Tetraspace | 1668098957736 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 27 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1663634792237}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 166... | ["us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.65 | 1668098957548 | 1667441608993 | 0.9653338813868673 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6502038112072867 | 6a5uYJ18rTvXsbZdvhSF | {"NO": 119.94217074236197, "YES": 91.65041964723653} | 0.7086762012554384 | if-tobias-read-is-the-2022-democrat | 20 | If Tobias Read is the 2022 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee for Oregon, will he be elected governor? | 1652873360770 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.041479192529513 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651316538129 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652873360770 | 100.34697554582816 | Tetraspace | 1651316538129 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471080}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.65 | 1651353359961 | 0.7086762012554384 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3284239186902016 | J491Fp6rZVgZPNnmXJxK | {"NO": 64.68913776718077, "YES": 296.17259052821913} | 0.09650540065889825 | conditional-on-daily-free-markets-s | 266 | Conditional on daily free markets still being around at the end of July, will Manifold add a badge for maintaining a streak of daily markets? | 1657118984614 | zY0oQH3nS4RODXib9Kd7jK6dJuS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2784769580091675 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651320522455 | DELETE CLUB | Platforms like Snapchat, Duolingo use streaks to optimise for daily engagement. Is this something that would benefit Manifold? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657118984614 | 103.30001181165247 | DELETECLUB | 1657042298182 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhXaEXsl0aQLd-mwMjrJHnjBLnz2CE5XLk0ErvN=s96-c | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586044}] | ["free-markets"] | 0.33 | 1651400869195 | 1657042296901 | 0.09650540065889823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4920284764679914 | 8HmAhn6wgzfWNVJ3Er1s | {"NO": 18.376271697711246, "YES": 692.3591392972806} | 0 | will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz | 679.9569054326754 | Will Russia declare general mobilization before July 1, 2022? | 1656622800000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.051561716576799 | True | play | NO | public | 1651325317957 | AVS | This market resolves "YES" if Russian officials announce general mobilization before July 1, 2022. If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES."
May 1, 8:57am: See also https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.0720576304577865, "platformFee": 0.8057231318175921, "liquidityFee": 4.834338790905552} | 0 | 1656664351302 | 104.83433879090556 | AVS | 1656322893290 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663681678849}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663681676313}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": ... | ["russia", "world-default", "wars", "russian-mobilization", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1656322892112 | False | 0.025064144668774203 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20117282014210144 | CharltczbRjN9JLtOh0z | {"NO": 105.99807129644203, "YES": 105.75226195427311} | 0 | will-the-ea-forum-team-have-written | 229 | Will the EA forum team have written functionality that replaces Swapcard by EA Global London 2023? | 1651982340000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.136049734179438 | True | play | NO | public | 1651335207584 | Nuño Sempere | See this comment: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ooNHBxWrJXXinDRej/eag-is-over-but-don-t-delete-swapcard?commentId=93nZthq4fMwfziJyh
Question resolves positively if the next EA Global London, participants use EA Forum/EA Hub/EA developed software to interact with other conference attendees. If there is no E... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9827236902416887, "platformFee": 0.4971206150402814, "liquidityFee": 2.9827236902416887} | 0 | 1694270364561 | 102.9827236902417 | NuñoSempere | 1694270348563 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.2 | 1651553249088 | 1694270347901 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4979355232838732 | JAWMTHRoTbO87KE00LBA | {"NO": 73.38731261291687, "YES": 142.61140317078934} | 1 | will-i-shave-my-scraggly-beard-befo | 54 | Will I shave my scraggly beard before I go to the Bahamas? | 1651517940000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.784988408004365 | True | play | YES | public | 1651335778310 | Ian Philips | I've got a scraggle that my partner likes but I think I want to look clean shaven in the Bahamas. Con is the scraggle takes a while to grow back. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0815297279041887, "platformFee": 0.18025495465069813, "liquidityFee": 1.0815297279041887} | 0 | 1651525643544 | 101.08152972790418 | ian | 1651335778310 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651400821283 | 1651345559354 | 0.33790811036225277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qRWwu9C2KLs2llLtjkv0 | who-will-win-the-colombian-presiden | 1730.4737993839185 | Who will win the Colombian presidential election? | 1653883140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.685868748922211 | True | play | e4d7ea66338f | public | 1651340855826 | Enopoletus Harding | This market will resolve to whoever wins the Colombian presidential election. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.929336927731377, "platformFee": 6.732334231932844, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655676052161 | 420 | EnopoletusHarding | 1653868328469 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "14069d4afa83", "prob": 0.021529546750127943, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.44710189252071825, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.319795697557964, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qRWwu9C2KLs2llLtjkv0", "createdTime": 1651340855937, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 1653868327128 | {"e4d7ea66338f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EdhZd1rPnuw2dePJxdlg | which-of-manifolds-supported-charit | 317.8147429871771 | Which of Manifold's supported charities will I believe is most effective? | 1651993140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.794371319831805 | True | play | 2f6e12e3aa74 | public | 1651342297002 | Jack | Which of the charities on https://manifold.markets/charity will I judge most effective and therefore choose to donate to? Obviously the purpose of this market is to help myself and others make a more effective choice so comments and discussion are of course welcome.
Here is some context about my beliefs/opinions:
- I'... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.535572109417209, "platformFee": 1.8838930273543022, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652046860080 | 540.0000000000001 | jack | 1652046841353 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "492b9b49f165", "prob": 0.15477445559298675, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.856954632061257, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.523899614544398, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EdhZd1rPnuw2dePJxdlg", "createdTime": 1651342297121, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589694}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 1651612783837 | 1652267915684 | {"2f6e12e3aa74": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | a91r8dtmTYxDZ4Dzpvu5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | daily-market-b65ab179ab90 | 0 | Daily market | 1651342972266 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | YES | public | 1651342964939 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651342972266 | 100 | Jenny | 1651342964939 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33416830315037577 | ovJSnyp3KzVnMlhqq2kv | {"NO": 1130.7416540249687, "YES": 0.6492122629222479} | 1 | will-i-find-a-way-to-tweak-this-vis | 1031 | Will I find a way to tweak this Visual Studio Code behavior? | 1651349296163 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.095014998875669 | True | play | YES | public | 1651343963177 | Daniel Reeves | Specifically the syntax highlighting for URLs.
See https://superuser.com/questions/1718804/how-to-change-syntax-highlighting-of-urls-in-visual-studio-code | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.550075850188513, "platformFee": 0.2583459750314188, "liquidityFee": 1.550075850188513} | 0 | 1651349296163 | 101.5500758501885 | dreev | 1651343963177 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | 1651349238050 | 0.9515318341039641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4992457813370139 | nFfPkEMXxAIUgHSRAcMm | {"NO": 83.61903379768292, "YES": 124.00240102370897} | 0 | will-i-get-mythic-next-mtg-arena-se | 35 | Will I get Mythic next MTG Arena season? | 1654038574830 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7564909023920316 | True | play | NO | public | 1651347523017 | Conflux | This season, I came tantalizingly close to getting the Mythic Constructed Rank on MTG Arena: I'm set to end it on Diamond Tier 2 (Arena ranks go Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Diamond, Mythic, and tiers with lower numbers are better - an explainer: https://draftsim.com/mtg-arena-ranking-system/). I've never gotten Myt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8989033193967019, "platformFee": 0.1498172198994503, "liquidityFee": 0.8989033193967019} | 0 | 1654038574830 | 100.8989033193967 | Conflux | 1654038569161 | 0 | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852497516}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.5 | 1651554524541 | 1654038567589 | 0.4020221240985676 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011896730219589832 | lv6MWDxqyrSVUcA33Woi | {"NO": 1716.5543037592795, "YES": 3.230340119965205} | 1 | will-a-link-to-data-on-beeminders-p | 117 | Will a link to data on Beeminder's past autodata integrations magically appear? | 1651376709248 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.943427967953468 | True | basic | YES | public | 1651347850195 | Daniel Reeves | This is a bounty market. I'm starting this with a low probability and a big subsidy so if you put together the following CSV file, you can bid the market probability up and cash in!
The data is currently in https://beeminder.consider.it#done-11 and just needs to be extracted like so:
INTEGRATION, LAUNCHDATE
Withings,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6741774443234885, "platformFee": 0.4456962407205814, "liquidityFee": 2.6741774443234885} | 0 | 1651376709248 | 1602.6741774443235 | dreev | 1651347850195 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383056806}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.01 | 1651365035221 | 1651376701888 | 0.8648257309001717 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5030574079261647 | z6ipjbYS3hCvekejXTR7 | {"NO": 59.07604958941014, "YES": 175.6697351641705} | 0.25396986940496635 | will-lebanon-see-violent-and-widesp | 195 | Will Lebanon see violent and wide-spread political instability prior to or following its scheduled May 15 parliamentary elections? | 1656964140000 | Qr6nEFQ3nqgnZuEYfjJU8F53oyH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.875813244363287 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651348177181 | Roll Saxa | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702615855490 | 101.1076923076923 | RollSaxa | 1702615850684 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929564}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664331006516}] | ["global-macro", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1656917677529 | 1702615849984 | 0.25 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
z0sKgg9mIul9tJ2HPSCf | total-donations-for-manifold-for-go | 452226.59268525755 | How much USD will be donated through Manifold for Good before June? | 1654055940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615558771549601 | True | basic | ce27b8870893 | public | 1651349737874 | Manifold | Manifold Markets has just introduced a new program which lets users donate their Manifold dollars directly to a charity of their choice ( https://manifold.markets/charity ). Through the month of May, every M$ 100 users contribute turns into $1 USD sent to charity. This market will resolve to the total number of US doll... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2218.950527166721, "platformFee": 554.7376317916802, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654093411872 | 3219.9999999999995 | Manifold | 1654057693684 | 0 | 72 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e696775f16d2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006139357454205878, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.063539369648733, "textFts": "", "contractId": "z0sKgg9mIul9tJ2HPSCf", "createdTime": 1651349737935, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}... | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429616}, {"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "ilJdhpLzZZSUgzueJOs2cbRnJn82", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1668811353819}] | ["manifold-investors", "whale-watching"] | False | 1654055931449 | 1654057691994 | {"ce27b8870893": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43958825044713273 | zJv65zag49z9XSiZwwCJ | {"NO": 115.23430434529101, "YES": 3264.4378694737266} | 0 | will-richard-hanania-have-at-least-ba05d4d12fb0 | 7421.291400317036 | Will Richard Hanania have at least 100,000 Twitter followers by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4750798184847786 | True | play | NO | public | 1651349743838 | James | See also the market for 50,000 followers: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-richard-hanania-have-at-least | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.902485446560135, "platformFee": 1.94750658218968, "liquidityFee": 11.685039493138078} | 0 | 1672592936130 | 691.6850394931381 | JamesGrugett | 1672545312527 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["internet"] | 0.5 | 1672545312400 | 1663068790317 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03995692296527715 | AFxv0uiQeikkrR89TKAS | {"NO": 95.83272678461654, "YES": 300.97368153050644} | 0 | will-ukraine-formally-cede-crimea-l | 201 | Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022? | 1654055940000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.91571221493893 | True | play | NO | public | 1651352161444 | Peter Berggren | This market resolves according to this Polymarket link:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-ukraine-formally-cede-crimea-luhansk-or-donetsk-by-may-31-2022
To quote Polymarket:
This market asks whether Ukraine will constitutionally renounce its claim to at least one of the following—The Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Luh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.15791081696146142, "platformFee": 0.026318469493576906, "liquidityFee": 0.15791081696146142} | 0 | 1654208084575 | 100.15791081696146 | PeterBerggren | 1653163166431 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474645}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226463}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.04 | 1653163165043 | False | 0.013078836276307465 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13114373689676395 | O9kY2VMLdBbUyLtusalc | {"NO": 104.31934866658071, "YES": 87.40588766279475} | 0.1526469688993601 | will-mqp-have-to-pay-taxes-on-his-m | 7669.046266955741 | Will mqp have to pay taxes on his mana income? | 1660162800000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651353157383 | Gurkenglas | mqp can buy YES shares in this market so he has something to hand in as taxes if necessary. Everyone who's convinced this is not a thing can buy NO. I rake in fees. Nice. Close date subject to change.
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 12:45 am
Apr 30, 11:12pm: If mqp pays tax... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 51.61574201552734, "platformFee": 7.798484595364832, "liquidityFee": 46.790907572189} | 0 | 266.2277407842645 | Gurkenglas | 1701643171823 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.12 | 1659733017664 | 1701643171027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32100199356626247 | LvCQzy0YviikecPehexj | {"NO": 36.72029789106962, "YES": 623.7741707154145} | 0.027076755178813142 | will-michael-sherwood-pass-the-new | 2335.1704518979313 | Will Michael Sherwood pass the New York bar exam by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | ZD4kCY4N5PRp40eC5JmsS6vji4H2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651356412165 | PublicFigure | This market resolves when the individual named receives the results of his NY bar exam or if he has not taken the bar exam by 2025. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3638073191016793, "platformFee": 0.22730121985027993, "liquidityFee": 1.3638073191016793} | 0 | 121.36380731910168 | PublicFigure | 1680433823657 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 1680433823555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3370846342191833 | jlTCyo4PRo5yZKgtnoeM | {"NO": 47.747836038915906, "YES": 103.95240801288877} | 0.18933872120183168 | will-jack-sandor-vote-for-ivanka-tr | 23.879613806699762 | Will Jack Sandor vote for Ivanka Trump in 2032? | 1983067140000 | ZD4kCY4N5PRp40eC5JmsS6vji4H2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651356866703 | PublicFigure | When he votes in the Election in 2032 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22793704968824363, "platformFee": 0.03798950828137394, "liquidityFee": 0.22793704968824363} | 0 | 140.22793704968825 | PublicFigure | 1683624054593 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4 | [] | [] | 0.99 | 1683624054444 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28129909981141205 | wcxCNXvJFfFBIB2NnBFM | {"NO": 34.00450904122517, "YES": 1593.5795344957824} | 0 | will-someone-produce-legal-advice-o | 2138.025201179732 | Will someone produce legal advice on mqp-taxes? | 1672420320000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.959850583952957 | True | play | NO | public | 1651358750811 | Gurkenglas | By year's end, will someone produce e.g. a tax accountant's statement that resolves https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-mqp-have-to-pay-taxes-on-his-m ? For example, the Manifold devs might ask the IRS how taxable M$ is.
Close date updated to 2022-06-03 6:12 pm
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 6:12 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.70960449397275, "platformFee": 3.1459407478464936, "liquidityFee": 18.875644487078965} | 0 | 1673998619656 | 138.875644487079 | Gurkenglas | 1672420309095 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0.5 | 1672420308876 | 1654272678613 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3787466553455265 | LSCrHpLDxuLyVtCAs3Aq | {"NO": 216.83691810983072, "YES": 4103.116982546713} | 0 | will-there-be-smart-contract-bounti | 4422.538776253592 | Will there be smart contract bounties for formalized mathematics on a blockchain before May 2024 | 1714608600000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1651365210876 | Bolton Bailey | This market resolves YES if there is some public blockchain smart contract or contracts offering at least a 100USD equivalent in bounties for formalized proofs of mathematical theorems by the market close date. A few stipulations:
* The blockchain in question has to be permissionless - it should be possible for an indi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2688381183889454, "platformFee": 0.9948641842438504, "liquidityFee": 1.528768720974114} | 0 | 1714615788339 | 701.5287687209741 | BoltonBailey | 1714608600000 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Blockchain Technology", "slug": "blockchain-technology", "groupId": "22d2a631-7306-45bf-ab26-2bdc6148bf41", "createdTime": 1698861595615}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1698861599252}, {"name": "Formal Methods", "slug": "formal-methods", "groupId... | ["blockchain-technology", "mathematics", "formal-methods", "smart-contracts"] | 0.5 | 1714602996006 | 1699351254590 | 0.03 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5859361826475609 | cVtozOAj5aYKPL321cx0 | {"NO": 15.079031357383826, "YES": 458.86288980551467} | 0 | when-i-visit-bbccom-on-may-28th-wil | 416.92976785104725 | When I visit BBC.com on May 28th, will the first story I see listed be about Russia? | 1653785568341 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9446312401728294 | True | play | NO | public | 1651365440468 | Duncn | On May 28th, will the first story on the BBC.com website be primarily be about Russia, Putin, or about a Russian invasion? FWIW, I'm in the US, and will probably visit the site after 12:00 PM EST. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.0681160553479465, "platformFee": 1.0113526758913247, "liquidityFee": 6.0681160553479465} | 0 | 1653785568341 | 106.06811605534794 | Duncn | 1653782938279 | 0 | 13 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419396}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224480}] | ["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.6 | 1653782936946 | 1653748830260 | False | 0.04443584021943108 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4994508976607702 | gPmakZzc0I6AFdPP6YHD | {"NO": 82.07918603133191, "YES": 124.89780177486662} | 0 | is-the-blue-and-orange-face-from-th | 25 | Is the blue and orange face from the Owl House art stream the Collector possessing Luz? | 1653692400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.770276494404739 | True | play | NO | public | 1651366503296 | Tetra | The fanartists seem to think so: https://sepublic.tumblr.com/post/682340149173108736/hmm-luz-is-trapped-in-that-in-between-realm #TheOwlHouse | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6131893508003676, "platformFee": 0.1021982251333946, "liquidityFee": 0.6131893508003676} | 0 | 1654018275175 | 100.61318935080037 | Tetraspace | 1653237169990 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546525}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1652978735398 | 1653237166468 | 0.39603641010859003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07341962036594918 | S4kZriQxTOT5vtj58zN2 | {"NO": 973.5281777630516, "YES": 1252.9222009887897} | 0.05799702675896191 | is-america-on-the-brink-of-a-christ | 558 | Is America on the brink of a Christian revival? | 1767243540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 9.234575511739943e-16 | 10.448980674788704 | False | basic | public | 1651368318530 | David Glidden | Tl;dr: resolves YES if 40%+ of Americans describe themselves in 2025 as “born again” or evangelical Christians according to Gallup polling.
See https://twitter.com/pjchougule/status/1517835765409107969 and https://twitter.com/dglid/status/1520175717841055747
This market will resolve YES if 40% or more respond “yes” t... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6648526966455617, "platformFee": 0.4682636347001534, "liquidityFee": 1.4359068743344898} | 0 | 1000 | dglid | 1714559617360 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 7 | 0.09725668739828512 | 0.2 | 1714559614090 | 1711040031982 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.197961528112326 | 0y6IcfNvoTNyfHnAoPVy | {"NO": 441.80389921283677, "YES": 6269.923766079799} | 0 | will-nintendo-release-a-successor-t | 6245.541486201608 | Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2023? | 1704071946475 | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0.009742651881674712 | 1.0504241265251015 | True | play | NO | public | 1651374355937 | Kronopath | Sony and Microsoft have released their next-gen consoles already, the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X/S, as of 2020. However, Nintendo so far has been continuing to pour their efforts into the Nintendo Switch, which was released in 2017. Rumours abound of a "Switch Pro" or even a brand new console, but so far have ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9621826845824635, "platformFee": 0.3969668053985393, "liquidityFee": 2.3818008323912356} | 0 | 1704071946475 | 822.3818008323913 | Kronopath | 1704071947509 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c | 1 | 46 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529458933}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1676323125635}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resol... | ["nintendo", "gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13955974202291516 | 0.5 | 1704071359686 | 1704071373528 | 0.02 | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999674232917523 | wbFPCAIJ9wnYKoWavCiY | {"NO": 495.8278365863001, "YES": 20.279341508529626} | 1 | will-i-be-convinced-erusian-knows-a | 493.9309037958114 | Will I be convinced Erusian knows any Chinese phonology? | 1669957140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.927666328928256 | True | play | YES | public | 1651376316840 | Enopoletus Harding | Prominent high IQ commenter Erusian seems to display a really bizarre penchant for spelling Chinese names. I'm not entirely sure if it's dialectical influence or, more likely (given his spelling the simple character 平 inconsistently and fusing 小平 but not 近平) he has zero knowledge of the phonology of any Sinitic languag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3635273136009785, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854932, "liquidityFee": 0.14268727705112957} | 0 | 1670596451682 | 100.14268727705112 | EnopoletusHarding | 1667246395525 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 1667246395425 | 1661275566475 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9889226415039984 | UQhDGoxLdSbYzjjlsC3L | {"NO": 1.2969664477822862, "YES": 104.97852506295952} | 0 | will-a-dragon-eat-the-sun-on-may-1 | 5 | Will a dragon eat the Sun on May 1, 2022? | 1651378500000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693649 | True | play | NO | public | 1651378361687 | Peter Berggren | This market resolves YES if a dragon eats the Sun prior to 12:15 AM EDT on May 1, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285823, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476372, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285823} | 0 | 1651378514255 | 100.12884962224285 | PeterBerggren | 1651426761808 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1651378403741 | 1651426758629 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4818340509492953 | ABRwf8tFwkO9wbvYpo0d | {"NO": 17.300218052458973, "YES": 739.4793549922699} | 0 | will-the-owl-house-season-3-come-ou | 640 | Will The Owl House Season 3 come out on Disney Plus within the month? | 1654142340000 | scCgdNJxyHOhVbbXc8cShA9JKJD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.217136134130107 | True | play | NO | public | 1651379303887 | Murloc Knight | Market resolves to YES if Season 3 of The Owl House becomes available, and resolves to NO if it isn’t on the platform by June 1st. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.123870046380236, "platformFee": 0.5206450077300394, "liquidityFee": 3.123870046380236} | 0 | 1654166086178 | 103.12387004638022 | MurlocKnight | 1700665279681 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyEUbB022Kx7dRkd0Fgf1Q3uOwg9TxnY3yBh9Yo=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654142319219 | 1700665270760 | 0.021291559616785777 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22827092947390812 | UcTD6HlxMUUFY9Sr38HN | {"NO": 291.1246815604902, "YES": 3045.9457235378277} | 0 | will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz-839d55901a6d | 7967.557939299695 | Will Russia declare general mobilization before January 1, 2023? | 1672520400000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1890719506325222 | True | play | NO | public | 1651384860055 | AVS | This market resolves "YES" if Russian officials announce general mobilization before January 1, 2023. If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES."
See also https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declare-general-mo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.471845308893712, "platformFee": 0.910198682585314, "liquidityFee": 5.461192095511883} | 0 | 1672521022860 | 545.4611920955119 | AVS | 1672513623310 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 0 | 96 | 0 | 1 | 79 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "rkXrudWYfSbPnXK1hcusRIXKaQm2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664415383399}, {"name": "Russian Mobilization", "slug": "russian-mobilization", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ezxIfUpZ3tFWftxcjGCP", "createdTime": 16636... | ["russia", "world-default", "wars", "russian-mobilization", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672513619768 | 1671041683974 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mx8BTaS1JxDQV14vErqK | which-charity-will-receive-the-most | 225.4821376792288 | Which Charity will receive the most M$ donations through 5/31? | 1652684340000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837250846687415 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651385111332 | Adam | On 6/1 I will look at the charity tab and resolve the question to the charity that received the most M$. If there are two similar answers, I will select the one that spells the name of the organization how it is spelled on the Charity page. If neither is spelled the same as the charity page, I will resolve it to the on... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.09928550716915197, "platformFee": 0.02482137679228799, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654115802272 | 540 | Adam | 1654115816839 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "040f6cc47831", "prob": 0.24871035529489363, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.90106176977827, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.9915115543035, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Mx8BTaS1JxDQV14vErqK", "createdTime": 1651385111417, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1652652326255 | 1654115813561 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XgAOeBJWiyFUW7GHUj3m | what-name-will-stick-for-erica-and | 596.99954591656 | What name will stick for Erica and Stephen's van? | 1659160666554 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.722293607405293 | True | play | 4dc7546f6d2a | public | 1651385318264 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Erica and Stephen will make the final call. This is a van from Japan whose speedometer's in kilometers and the steering wheel's on the right side (even though it lives and drives in Portland, Oregon).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.447873390682929, "platformFee": 2.6119683476707323, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659160666554 | 700.0000000000002 | dreev | 1658948335352 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c9f68eb48be3", "prob": 0.051306808628600924, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.8181685999901088, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.128420592735896, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XgAOeBJWiyFUW7GHUj3m", "createdTime": 1651385318359, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | [{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904795}] | ["naming-suggestions"] | 1658948335170 | 1658884818665 | {"4dc7546f6d2a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ShNqoZrcXyPVGsmehw3l | how-much-m-will-each-charity-receiv | 161 | How much M$ will each Charity receive by 5/31? (Resolve-to-PROB) | 1652684340000 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.884840372664881 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651385908063 | Adam | I will resolve this market to PROB based on the amount of M$ each charity received in donations through Manifold Markets as of 6/1, as a percentage of the total M$ donated.
On 6/1 I will look at the charity tab and resolve the question. If there are two similar answers, I will select the one that spells the name of th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.040000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0100000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654116129363 | 460.00000000000017 | Adam | 1654057434042 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1f55b0e87bd9", "prob": 0.3857875853555033, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.421491703510306, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.697256941158756, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ShNqoZrcXyPVGsmehw3l", "createdTime": 1651385908298, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1651519421667 | 1654057431442 | {"12decab74ff8": 0.10178966590595856, "20d6fe5cf237": 0.001628634654495337, "32b4de5ee65f": 6.65704415024969, "522bb7a7d016": 0.9771807926972023, "6fbd651145f9": 86.35835255461525, "8d4b49806ad0": 0.3257269308990674, "908cb69fd84e": 0.20357933181191712, "bcb832b5a587": 1.9543615853944045, "c8139ed4574e": 1.974923097907... | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35798168599684244 | cRccyLz0QwK85HJo8S8N | {"NO": 143.66794817360517, "YES": 63.4367924986264} | 1 | was-olivia-the-most-popular-girls-n | 147 | Was Olivia the most popular girls name in the U.S. in 2021? | 1651850360341 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9498522889971293 | True | play | YES | public | 1651388223750 | LukeW | Traditionally the US Social Security Agency releases on the Friday before Mother's Day the list of the most popular names of the previous year. This market resolves to "YES" if the more girls were named Olivia than any other name in 2021 according to the SSA.
May 1, 10:55am: Olivia was the number one ranked name in 20... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6313770053913306, "platformFee": 0.6052295008985551, "liquidityFee": 3.6313770053913306} | 0 | 1651850360341 | 103.63137700539133 | LukeW | 1651850346162 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.35 | 1651580084302 | 1651850342210 | 0.5580682242289278 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18563391898729323 | mYapS6JRf76r4epqAvto | {"NO": 360.18669683787715, "YES": 14906.148900809367} | 0 | will-dnipro-be-under-russian-contro-f440388f935f | 21706.95071388574 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | 1685591940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3280648978125522 | True | play | NO | public | 1651402776707 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10790/dnipro-under-russian-on-june-1-2023/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.461285034202763, "platformFee": 0.009492757660627751, "liquidityFee": 0.0569565459637665} | 0 | 1685909922712 | 780.0569565459638 | MetaculusBot | 1685695622159 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371392}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224124}] | ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.04 | 1685576716455 | 1685695618861 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jwk2J5G8v2KewrIfGVgR | how-many-recently-active-russian-fl | 100 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | 1653353460746 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651402864142 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10802/-russian-generals-to-emigrate-by-2024/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653353460746 | 220 | MetaculusBot | 1653353482741 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f3caa2bbd749", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jwk2J5G8v2KewrIfGVgR", "createdTime": 1651402864311, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | 1651402864142 | 1653353482441 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FF1uA4qJ2zOVVRnybGPC | what-size-of-army-will-ukraine-be-l | 107.64225969852477 | What size of army will Ukraine be limited to as result of cease-fire or treaty negotiations with Russia? | 1704085140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.017746780286658 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651403250597 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10739/ukraine-army-reduction-in-peace-negotiations/
Acceptable answers: Rounded to nearest 50k, i.e. "200k", "250k", etc.
If Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty with no agreement to reduce army size, this question will resolve N/A.
If Ukraine and Russia do not sign any form of ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704739506714 | 300 | MetaculusBot | 1704739507056 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "751fc45ec53a", "prob": 0.9928834050911746, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.570261210733902, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.10443386023059165, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FF1uA4qJ2zOVVRnybGPC", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 1651... | 2 | 3 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736822539}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129981905}] | ["ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1683565531254 | 1704739497317 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AgqUjkp2e9ajCz2WZQUi | how-many-military-equipment-losses | 215 | How many military equipment losses will Russia incur between May 1st and May 29th? | 1653796740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.82377444797945 | True | play | 60056cab9c9d | public | 1651404202582 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10724/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-russia-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Russia_Total", r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5, "platformFee": 1.25, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653935301442 | 320 | MetaculusBot | 1653935357686 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e617948dd4ec", "prob": 0.21633315305570577, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.912811519520329, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 57.644159729462395, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AgqUjkp2e9ajCz2WZQUi", "createdTime": 1651404202787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1653773021064 | 1653935356130 | {"60056cab9c9d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dOo8MOh4poVOZAmssqs4 | how-many-military-equipment-losses-3f1108090d0d | 140 | How many military equipment losses will Russia incur between May 29th and June 6th? | 1654483262630 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.919565222634214 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651404315858 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10724/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-russia-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Russia_Total", r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654483262630 | 380 | MetaculusBot | 1654619805410 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "aaf69dac42e5", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.213428673814406, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.52489152686182, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dOo8MOh4poVOZAmssqs4", "createdTime": 1651404316062, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1654476265420 | 1654619800370 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tzgCAX8qQOnkDHemoEof | how-many-military-equipment-losses-200febab4fc5 | 107 | How many military equipment losses will Russia incur between June 6th and July 24th? | 1654824904822 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.997055127539229 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651404377049 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10724/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-russia-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Russia_Total", r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654824904822 | 260 | MetaculusBot | 1654824876691 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a3f45fa6471e", "prob": 0.8734387282732117, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.63001415873657, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.350589051600926, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tzgCAX8qQOnkDHemoEof", "createdTime": 1651404377268, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1654165673208 | 1654824875306 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YEYuB2osryezUcz0mVLH | how-many-military-equipment-losses-1d47db8dddc8 | 206.6760394657215 | How many military equipment losses will Russia incur between July 24th and August 21st? | 1661054340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.897180011314221 | True | play | e85521d26862 | public | 1651404468122 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10724/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-russia-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Russia_Total", r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.124004179803707, "platformFee": 1.2810010449509268, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661218326572 | 380 | MetaculusBot | 1660965501317 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cb0e0ea6157c", "prob": 0.4269143352979905, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.15891750205496, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.82742876412447, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YEYuB2osryezUcz0mVLH", "createdTime": 1651404468319, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1660965501151 | {"e85521d26862": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fAnTZp0v2loPWp5JKerT | how-many-military-equipment-losses-b348d6561a69 | 188.9173835763366 | How many military equipment losses will Ukraine incur between July 24th and August 21st? | 1661054340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.87350884255703 | True | play | d4bdd4a06255 | public | 1651404542846 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10770/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-ukraine-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Ukraine_Total",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.803304656946536, "platformFee": 1.200826164236634, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661218416298 | 320 | MetaculusBot | 1661026704167 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7648a3b4d079", "prob": 0.34978572434914634, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.91723587459396, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 66.76630257291107, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fAnTZp0v2loPWp5JKerT", "createdTime": 1651404543048, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1661026702996 | 1660934128648 | {"d4bdd4a06255": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ev6JbXNDYPwYAyccJOe4 | how-many-military-equipment-losses-0ca84f9ab820 | 155 | How many military equipment losses will Ukraine incur between June 6th and July 24th? | 1654824922468 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.893920819158259 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651404605943 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10770/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-ukraine-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Ukraine_Total",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654824922468 | 340 | MetaculusBot | 1654824916881 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c9fff07b4e6b", "prob": 0.4162330905306972, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.176099654934355, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.15197976604543, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ev6JbXNDYPwYAyccJOe4", "createdTime": 1651404606141, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1654165809411 | 1654824915005 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xKEdjiVCczJpegcK08zA | how-many-military-equipment-losses-7cab61778815 | 218 | How many military equipment losses will Ukraine incur between May 29th and June 6th? | 1654487940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.923348198101932 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651404660480 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10770/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-ukraine-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Ukraine_Total",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654824955201 | 340 | MetaculusBot | 1654824949789 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b76b0b6d735e", "prob": 0.5250997689561017, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.9117445879279, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 63.22818180532199, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xKEdjiVCczJpegcK08zA", "createdTime": 1651404660677, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | 1654474434431 | 1654824948230 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XZwlRc8YAwfQXnn46Tvs | how-many-military-equipment-losses-e3c898d05bc9 | 241 | How many military equipment losses will Ukraine incur between May 1st and May 29th? | 1653796740000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.80329104953918 | True | play | 7290c3dfb112 | public | 1651404713493 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10770/how-much-military-equipment-losses-will-oryx-report-for-ukraine-in-2022/
Quick link to spreadsheet for resolution ("Original" sheet): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bngHbR0YPS7XH1oSA1VxoL4R34z60SJcR3NxguZM9GI/edit#gid=0
Calculated as value for column "Ukraine_Total",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.6, "platformFee": 2.4, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653935103467 | 360 | MetaculusBot | 1653935155034 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "430ae5a6cf95", "prob": 0.1721733441228629, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.422375659390486, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.30372440791539, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XZwlRc8YAwfQXnn46Tvs", "createdTime": 1651404713702, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1653773392645 | 1653935151396 | {"7290c3dfb112": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RYx0drnVRQxTcLIwArNI | how-many-copies-of-this-book-will-i | 100 | How many copies of this book will I sell in May? | 1653938579312 | I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651408364174 | ben truitt | I will choose the answer that is closest to the actual sales figures for May.
Relevant figures for forecasting:
Sold 11 Copies over March at 4 Saturday markets
Sold 8 Copies over April at 5 Saturday Markets
We are doing 13 markets in this month, weather permitting.
Weekly sales range from 30- 60 sales per day in Ma... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653938579312 | 220 | bentruitt | 1651408364174 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f6c26797a450", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RYx0drnVRQxTcLIwArNI", "createdTime": 1651408364250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | 1651408364174 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6551716907203411 | pHAeo107aCZbWLFcASRW | {"NO": 114.8822378130031, "YES": 105.74937555668974} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-withdraw-liquidit | 180 | Will I be able to withdraw liquidity in May? | 1652047140000 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.885951324853674 | True | play | NO | public | 1651410371729 | Gurkenglas | I can add liquidity to a market but the UI doesn't show how many of the shares I am currently providing on the table as liquidity, and doesn't let me pick them back up. I can close my market to take all of them off the table and that's a good start, but in particular once I've buttered a week-long market about next yea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.414996265841229, "platformFee": 0.7358327109735383, "liquidityFee": 4.414996265841229} | 0 | 1654717452154 | 104.41499626584121 | Gurkenglas | 1651881916177 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.66 | 1651881680235 | 1651881911187 | 0.6736381489269987 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5023431058343655 | vKEfAthI5sfcb98FRtZc | {"NO": 105.55385353393966, "YES": 107.23693121470069} | 0 | will-my-coin-flip-land-in-heads | 146.52143083152475 | Will my coin flip land in heads? | 1652068740000 | XluWxUYEXIhE2aArlAEpsRZLcOZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6506040014688277 | True | play | NO | public | 1651414413193 | Nick Meyvis | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.198131132893014, "platformFee": 0.5330218554821692, "liquidityFee": 3.198131132893014} | 0 | 1671564900645 | 103.19813113289302 | NickMeyvis | 1652065966826 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOhJ4ffg6D6dMLCRWzPIGtP6aoU5mHG6oaeG7e=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.5 | 1652065966641 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7506157637400651 | KO814jlFBNCWLJtQo6qZ | {"NO": 499.71132287694184, "YES": 257.1301585368081} | 0.854002825145752 | will-i-finish-printing-a-lizard-fri | 200 | Will I finish printing a lizard friend by 23:59 PST April 7th, 2022? | 1651426026529 | 7AENWPgDP3TMboOTdq51IZjtEBd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5603404525052003 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651418713319 | Ana Dalton | I've previously said that I would make a lizard friend for someone in a discord server. I had intended to start this print early this morning but am locked out of the makerspace. File for said lizard: https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:5199042
Evidence I'll do it: I've done one for someone else already.
Evidence again... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7320627383490768, "platformFee": 0.2886771230581795, "liquidityFee": 1.7320627383490768} | 0 | 1651426026529 | 301.7320627383491 | AnaDalton | 1651418713319 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzagSRQP08mzdYQuS-ZspmniK47hJmL_77Ve_Z8=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.75 | 1651418751478 | 0.854002825145752 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05048643315657316 | 579PuyQU09rIc3cxT4xs | {"NO": 136.32787283020593, "YES": 0.3815088105919635} | 1 | will-substack-support-native-manifo | 286.75241282232093 | Will Substack support native Manifold embeds within 6 months? | 1661628161844 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.8688991327912134 | True | play | YES | public | 1651420041448 | Austin | It'd be great to have Fortified Essays (ala Metaculus) where prediction markets are embedded directly next to an interesting news story. Ideally, this could just be a Substack embed (the kind they have for tweets/Youtube vids/OpenSea NFTs), but I doubt that Substack would be willing/interested in working with us.
I th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0469417019558, "platformFee": 0.11071236035480746, "liquidityFee": 0.6642741621288446} | 0 | 1661628161844 | 100.66427416212885 | Austin | 1661628160547 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0.05 | 1661396140593 | 1661628158794 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wBGgY0HN71GXWrkCSXXP | which-game-of-thrones-spinoff-serie | 174 | Which Game of Thrones spinoff series will be ordered to series this summer? | 1661096097599 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.867071482381086 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651420697946 | wasabipesto | After the success of Game of Thrones, HBO has begun developing many "successor shows" set in the universe. The first wave of prequels were initially pitched in 2016, and publicly announced as potential projects in May 2017. A second wave of prequel pitches was announced in early 2021. David Benioff and D.B. Weiss will ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661096097599 | 380 | wasabipesto | 1661096133457 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "451bf9874509", "prob": 0.33029462280354077, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.742244017300848, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50.167373969479186, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wBGgY0HN71GXWrkCSXXP", "createdTime": 1651420698011, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1660658341511 | 1661096132508 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39831916970688996 | hTesMVqSJecpVbG9PfQc | {"NO": 99.05114779658035, "YES": 119.48655711781123} | 1 | will-i-hear-a-crying-babytoddler-on | 139 | Will I hear a crying baby/toddler on my flight to the Bahamas from the UK. | 1651528028977 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7628237288638777 | True | play | YES | public | 1651421105983 | David Chee | The flight leaves at 10am May 2nd from Heathrow to Nassau.
I'm sitting at around the economy front 1/3rd mark of a Boeing 777. It only counts if I hear them whilst sitting in my seat, not if they are walking past when boarding/exiting. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3666383582828487, "platformFee": 0.5611063930471416, "liquidityFee": 3.3666383582828487} | 0 | 1651528028977 | 103.36663835828287 | SirSalty | 1651513853080 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.4 | 1651513851699 | 1651494355909 | 0.3543343100599889 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4991681649074034 | y7u7ZeYpoMaZLMDFb9Kb | {"NO": 79.12891660710169, "YES": 129.88848205849825} | 0 | will-aesop-rock-release-an-album-in | 38.91104299524847 | Will Aesop Rock release an album in 2022? | 1672560000000 | eoNYMBuC8OdZAkU0FlmctIQW1cQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.776717478063189 | True | play | NO | public | 1651422573745 | Diatom Polytope | This market resolves YES (early, if applicable) if Aesop Rock (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aesop_Rock) releases a new album at any time during the year 2022. Resolved NO if this does not happen | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6691449814126395, "platformFee": 0.11152416356877325, "liquidityFee": 0.6691449814126395} | 0 | 1672595141543 | 100.66914498141264 | DiatomPolytope | 1667246399300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzAFBnxp97t61iImt7JbYDHDvJxOKwAKf71BHmc=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 1667246399089 | 0.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35461960539167997 | o4xxo3YPuegvy6zC5TqJ | {"NO": 153.60895106123198, "YES": 51.868759034220226} | 0 | when-i-try-soap-carving-with-my-fiv | 85 | When I try soap carving with my five year old, will she seriously attempt to sculpt something? | 1651553061276 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.078462445451213 | True | play | NO | public | 1651425925628 | Alicorn | I bought some carving tools and plan to at some point set up with them and a bar of soap each for me and the kiddo. Will she try to make a shape of any kind or will she just shred the bar into a pile of shavings and chunks? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2752987094191934, "platformFee": 0.37921645156986555, "liquidityFee": 2.2752987094191934} | 0 | 1651553061276 | 102.2752987094192 | Alicorn | 1651510830136 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | 1651510828716 | 1651460803432 | 0.6193756937684247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3088935660920194 | TlGMxAQDeYsM9SXkUoM9 | {"NO": 41.66771651251494, "YES": 866.9350441259468} | 0 | will-elon-musk-testify-at-the-amber | 1714.5439666450911 | Will Elon Musk testify at the Amber Heard-Johnny Depp trial this year? | 1651870193068 | XD5ADmj46lZfqhVJl1RmuMG0vAq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.119705477782273 | True | play | NO | public | 1651430861095 | Andre Vacha | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.466657145871366, "platformFee": 0.9111095243118943, "liquidityFee": 5.466657145871366} | 0 | 1651870193068 | 105.46665714587138 | AndreVacha | 1710451925727 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCi0G-1CrSVLK8b5yyvYeROwSAzZ5WSSQAweR4=s96-c | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.3 | 1651870185036 | 1651430974423 | 0.21727730251184885 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | L9nuWGGufUOREPLOuq3G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | in-cote-divoire-which-political-par | 0 | In Côte d'Ivoire, which political party will win the 2023 local elections? | 1651431978757 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651431949281 | Pepe | RHDP: Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace, the party of president Alassane Ouattara
PDCI-RDA: Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally, the party of Henri Konan Bédié
FPI: Ivorian Popular Front, the party of Pascal Affi N'Guessan
PPA-CI: African Peoples' Party - Côte d'Ivoire, t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651431978757 | 100 | Pepe | 1651431949281 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SsOuCeOwZIkpvvGeziUU | in-cote-divoire-which-political-par-0db4508747c8 | 141 | In Côte d'Ivoire, which political party will win the 2023 local elections? | 1693627140000 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.917708608378668 | True | play | 9c37867a48e8 | public | 1651432013648 | Pepe | RHDP: Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace, the party of president Alassane Ouattara
PDCI-RDA: Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally, the party of Henri Konan Bédié
FPI: Ivorian Popular Front, the party of Pascal Affi N'Guessan
PPA-CI: African Peoples' Party - Côte d'Ivoire, t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1694833322231 | 420 | Pepe | 1685947023758 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b2c8253809ae", "prob": 0.502992807202857, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.9989251629783, "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.28493795353886, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SsOuCeOwZIkpvvGeziUU", "createdTime": 1651432013876, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo... | 3 | 2 | [{"name": "Bad Rules", "slug": "bad-rules", "userId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "groupId": "WvZQqHRcY6IQ8pU9Em9M", "createdTime": 1686605667414}] | ["bad-rules"] | 1685946892162 | 1685947022230 | {"9c37867a48e8": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4899978421734518 | 2LTxqBCmMLaSo0OWGPRX | {"NO": 33.14592687841073, "YES": 354.60800877746465} | 0 | will-stocks-rebound-tomorrow-may-2 | 304.4858148010637 | Will stocks rebound tomorrow (May 2)? | 1651521600000 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.324921396420711 | True | play | NO | public | 1651437728935 | BCG | rebound = DOW up > 200 points | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9978441590541083, "platformFee": 0.49964069317568466, "liquidityFee": 2.9978441590541083} | 0 | 1651521660613 | 102.9978441590541 | BruceGrugett | 1651521729069 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651521554317 | 1651521724307 | 0.4251090101070034 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9846611993220237 | EsjPExTbW4d4eJ5fD28o | {"NO": 1.8542245983633283, "YES": 105.22769698101077} | 1 | will-the-prevalence-of-will-a-drago | 22.56865357688531 | Will the prevalence of "will a dragon eat the Sun" markets result in recorded profits becoming meaningless? | 1652068740000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.48503854097762 | True | play | YES | public | 1651450838610 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to "yes" if markets like the one linked to result in recorded profits becoming meaningless. It will resolve to "no" if they are still meaningful. Interpretation will be subjective. If the free markets are ended by the close date, this will resolve N/A.
https://manifold.markets/pmbpanther/will-a-dr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.363692636697993, "platformFee": 0.0606154394496655, "liquidityFee": 0.363692636697993} | 0 | 1652072236685 | 100.363692636698 | EnopoletusHarding | 1652066825262 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1652066825078 | 1651677129294 | 0.5307740695567965 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nOdbnOrvQzTIaw8kP2ii | which-longevityaging-focused-organi | 1434.5859546710692 | Which longevity/aging focused organizations are most effective to contribute to? | 1654498740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.650764392348453 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651451141588 | Jack | Aging kills and impairs a huge number of people, and research to prevent or mitigate this could potentially be highly impactful. I'm creating this market to learn recommendations for organizations in the area that would be best to contribute to.
Resolution: This market resolves to the top organization(s) weighted by a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.84, "platformFee": 11.21, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654526332586 | 660 | jack | 1654526272605 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "384f8e7653c2", "prob": 0.005270732624740545, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03069333062338635, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.792658527392225, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nOdbnOrvQzTIaw8kP2ii", "createdTime": 1651451141667, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590381}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533458}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMc... | ["effective-altruism", "science-default", "longevity"] | 1654487387944 | 1654526270590 | {"01b318ab696f": 17.145094188481448, "2bc31a101fae": 20.09433585337643, "be5ffff5a6c1": 31.984611534281065, "dfb4403b93f6": 11.993992922984734, "f944733c8465": 4.366999556503107, "fc789cbfdd51": 14.414965944373215} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5026277098290985 | RgwxNTcUsD1IHRS3Dn8X | {"NO": 180.20487999169853, "YES": 60.58361028233093} | 1 | was-liam-the-most-popular-boys-name | 102 | Was Liam the most popular boys name in the U.S. in 2021? | 1651850388770 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.838118424050497 | True | play | YES | public | 1651453924168 | LukeW | Traditionally, on the Friday before Mother's Day, the US Social Security Agency releases the list of the most popular names of the previous year. This market resolves to "YES" if more boys were named Liam than any other name in 2021, according to the SSA.
Liam was the number one ranked name from 2017 through 2020.
Ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0953984938732546, "platformFee": 0.3492330823122091, "liquidityFee": 2.0953984938732546} | 0 | 1651850388770 | 102.09539849387323 | LukeW | 1651850387396 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651824809939 | 1651850384151 | 0.7503689446902182 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5934750743455733 | KwUtFFZV2dXWFmm9eY3m | {"NO": 1081.7842383259026, "YES": 918.8566102191771} | 0.6321814980155059 | will-we-have-a-formalized-proof-of | 4391.238616749797 | Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01? | 1872392340000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.237743803890933 | False | basic | public | 1651455521652 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves \"YES\" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of Fermat's last theorem in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.018231407203673777} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.400087830587367, "platformFee": 0.8388552898868329, "liquidityFee": 0.33127053460273387} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1718124114088 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658680335828}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1669496626019}] | ["technology-default", "mathematics"] | 0.73 | 1718124110903 | 1697241124483 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.550363851779193 | 2GPRegjmLIdZs4FO5sOW | {"NO": 107.59991469853975, "YES": 97.94473834948352} | 0 | will-i-eat-fruit-from-a-tree-in-my | 39 | Will I eat fruit from a tree in my yard by the end of May? | 1653893940000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.758892457125791 | True | play | NO | public | 1651461140750 | Alicorn | We have a nectarine tree, a tangerine tree, and a Meyer lemon tree. They have all produced fruit in the past, though historically none of the tangerines have ripened. It counts if I use the fruit in something that I consume even if I don't strictly "eat" it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0869567457385356, "platformFee": 0.18115945762308933, "liquidityFee": 1.0869567457385356} | 0 | 1654225989166 | 101.08695674573853 | Alicorn | 1653683511537 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 | 1653683511306 | 1651462017356 | 0.5735028794243467 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014900735653162916 | oRlUrHJ9o6sVlrEFb8rG | {"NO": 119.99999976092175, "YES": 4.317903515449472e-06} | 1 | daily-market-e2fe2063aea9 | 20 | Daily Market | 1651465412382 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.558822637213737 | True | play | YES | public | 1651465388865 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4344694933221545e-06, "platformFee": 2.390782488870258e-07, "liquidityFee": 1.4344694933221545e-06} | 0 | 1651465412382 | 100.0000014344695 | Jenny | 1651465406374 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651465404990 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11578977013593834 | GaWdZasXRfmxyQiR6d1h | {"NO": 162.608465483897, "YES": 1021.8378258787525} | 0 | will-mm-offer-a-built-in-odds-ampli | 1081.7048699710301 | Will MM offer a built in odds amplifier, in 2022? | 1672491600000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.245153986238519 | True | play | NO | public | 1651473058141 | Undox | An ODDS amplifier makes betting on low probability events a bit more fun.
Let's say X has probability about 1% in the minds of bettors.
In a normal market this is problematic, people won't bet NO because they lock their money up, risk incorrect resolution for a say a measly 1M for 200M bet.
With amplified odds you ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.903373438934055, "platformFee": 0.3016464460290675, "liquidityFee": 1.809878676174405} | 0 | 1673821860275 | 201.8098786761744 | Undox | 1672330941571 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665693055093}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.1 | 1672330941140 | 1652733659659 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17744670617562486 | 9XNB48DCranqKs2lx0dt | {"NO": 936.078617818547, "YES": 1187.8077508213025} | 0.1453051919380255 | will-biden-announce-mass-student-lo | 498.00552270979995 | Will Biden announce mass student loan forgiveness during his first presidential term? | 1730811540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.78910451135119 | False | basic | public | 1651488190810 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves Yes if Biden announces a policy with the aim of forgiving a majority of student loans owed to the government before the 2024 presidential election. | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5966558545928056, "platformFee": 0.5707936732528118, "liquidityFee": 3.424762039516872} | 0 | 1000 | Keepcalmandchill | 1719314708072 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856966}, {"name": "US Student loans", "slug": "us-student-loans", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "lq3LEJta9kjIawjll1Jl", "createdTime": 166... | ["the-life-of-biden", "us-student-loans"] | 0.5 | 1703211153959 | 1719314706324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8676996297249149 | ldL64AuZaG3ztV39Vsjs | {"NO": 6085.180835183811, "YES": 380.0326525966828} | 1 | will-dwarf-fortress-be-released-on | 9574.888424390672 | Will Dwarf Fortress be released on Steam this year? | 1670383599239 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7844411337701955 | True | play | YES | public | 1651502884283 | wasabipesto | Dwarf Fortress is a construction and management simulation and roguelike indie video game created by Bay 12 Games. Available as freeware and in development since 2002, its first alpha version was released in 2006 and it received attention for being a two-member project surviving solely on donations. In March 2019, a pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8420503760717548, "platformFee": 0.13351772564211145, "liquidityFee": 0.8011063538526686} | 0 | 1670383599239 | 620.8011063538527 | wasabipesto | 1670375283505 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 32 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1661860954663}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661860963006}] | ["gaming", "technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1670375283353 | 1670354129661 | 0.9905675788972768 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4970394536806843 | neiePu0MYtbmNch54Wpp | {"NO": 78.88971356747041, "YES": 145.11031726661085} | 0 | will-i-apply-to-at-least-one-job-by | 145 | Will I apply to at least one job by Friday night? | 1651872600000 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6894473997475004 | True | play | NO | public | 1651504748576 | Nathaniel Lovin | I'm want to apply to new software engineering jobs, but haven't actually sent my resume out yet. Will I actually apply to any by the end of the week? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.400286335795691, "platformFee": 0.5667143892992819, "liquidityFee": 3.400286335795691} | 0 | 1651880345081 | 103.40028633579567 | NathanielLovin | 1651754340791 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651754339618 | 1651738347974 | 0.3494890866166531 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5032532835085851 | 8NfD7orGB2Bw0pIq2OHV | {"NO": 186.73723446546884, "YES": 59.21636060229733} | 1 | will-our-new-fence-keep-the-deer-ou | 112 | Will our new fence keep the deer out of our back yard? | 1655355540000 | WE5DNftrk8fnnNqslKOGeSl5Ut03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.843270244172352 | True | play | YES | public | 1651504776435 | jw | Resolves to YES if we don't see any evidence of deer in the back yard between now and June 15th.
We live a block from a forest preserve, and the deer regularly grazed through our yard last year. The new fence only blocks the rear of the yard (closest to the forest preserve), while neighbors' fences block the two sides... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3839387107587426, "platformFee": 0.39732311845979046, "liquidityFee": 2.3839387107587426} | 0 | 1655418807470 | 102.38393871075873 | jw | 1655348948824 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_gSzZUHAb6Gd0L7U6tsmyw54TJeSIuzhNwZRCKw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655348947552 | 1653879811535 | 0.7616084190070752 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29967024241419393 | 6vcxQStiyBaH4IO2FwN6 | {"NO": 266.44598873172754, "YES": 5586.5836418687795} | 0 | will-the-activisionmicrosoft-deal-f | 22917.09641435644 | Will the Activision-Microsoft deal fall through because of regulator actions? | 1697319076773 | A6nQmanrovc28xOxNlXU20oJXeV2 | cpmm-1 | 0.161830189325946 | 1.0887675681268165 | True | play | NO | public | 1651505179552 | Dan Forootan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve yes if government regulators file a regulatory law suit or other action and the deal falls through Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9091733371911923, "platformFee": 0.31819555619853207, "liquidityFee": 1.9091733371911923} | 0 | 1697319076773 | 721.9091733371912 | DanForootan | 1697272708866 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GicZmcXrE3YJENte41WVTpUZAUTxXyU9KL4kqqTMA=s96-c | 39 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0.14575384855284854 | 0.5 | 1697272708562 | 1697226771534 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.873709156312722 | A2aPl3FZvEMSQ8mZ4tHT | {"NO": 288.1662487883252, "YES": 297.23183438278136} | 1 | will-i-3d-print-a-lizard-friend-by | 241 | Will I 3D print a lizard friend by Saturday, May 7, 2022, 23:59 PST? | 1651709669562 | 7AENWPgDP3TMboOTdq51IZjtEBd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6373031779705918 | True | play | YES | public | 1651505746419 | Ana Dalton | I've previously said that I would make a lizard friend for someone in a discord server. I had intended to start this print early this morning but am locked out of the makerspace. File for said lizard: https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:5199042
Evidence I'll do it: I've done one for someone else already.
Evidence agains... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4102598242384166, "platformFee": 0.4017099707064028, "liquidityFee": 2.4102598242384166} | 0 | 1651709669562 | 302.41025982423844 | AnaDalton | 1651709840770 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzagSRQP08mzdYQuS-ZspmniK47hJmL_77Ve_Z8=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.75 | 1651580460051 | 1651709835755 | 0.8702515985528934 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dnmfy5S7NUMdj8vYAtM1 | which-knockknock-joke-will-my-7yo-k | 431 | Which knock-knock joke will my 7yo kid find funniest? | 1652155140000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.724759237555958 | True | play | aecdcaf93276 | public | 1651507677772 | Martin Randall | I will read or show the provided responses to my kid after closing, and ask her to pick the funniest.
Small print: I won't submit jokes myself. I may censor responses at my discretion. I will resolve to "None of them" if she says words to that effect.
May 6, 8:46am: If I read her the answers I will read them highest-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.44, "platformFee": 4.11, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652183502584 | 800 | MartinRandall | 1652187159384 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d7b665129c51", "prob": 0.05383261287353104, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.027245362325755, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.0549672127737, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Dnmfy5S7NUMdj8vYAtM1", "createdTime": 1651507677845, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1652138379620 | 1652187156387 | {"aecdcaf93276": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4084560148664571 | VFhY5bhx1hJ9GLodtag4 | {"NO": 1254.0641274777681, "YES": 146.9749978552257} | 1 | will-us-inflation-be-more-than-04-f | 756 | Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.4% from March to April 2022? | 1652272140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0652382584752125 | True | play | YES | public | 1651513418145 | SG | Resolves to CPI report ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm ), scheduled to be released on May 11, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET.
May 11, 9:03am: One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for March 2022: 1.2% https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04122022.pdf
May 11, 11:01am: Oops, accid... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.615235133392337, "platformFee": 1.9358725222320565, "liquidityFee": 11.615235133392337} | 0 | 1652279164133 | 511.61523513339233 | SG | 1652281908642 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570934}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.4 | 1652243463320 | 1652281905260 | 0.8548961813851925 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12072930572710697 | xSHby63ptYSlNOtNFaze | {"NO": 924.2399663837612, "YES": 1325.1826873379857} | 0.08739414656605358 | will-modernas-mrna-vaccine-for-ebv | 523.7075910102021 | Will Moderna's mRNA vaccine for EBV be approved by 2025 | 1735793940000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.07762675745628 | False | basic | public | 1651513648510 | Sarah | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.40167036117185423, "platformFee": 0.06694506019530905, "liquidityFee": 0.40167036117185423} | 0 | 1000 | SarahC | 1707405788466 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 7 | [] | [] | 0.4 | 1707405788265 | 1704826096510 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11872961753689826 | vxEaW1CaI0ygToKhbyA9 | {"NO": 360.95670120976894, "YES": 5758.162491040581} | 0 | will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-again-by | 6062.313663642202 | Will Trump tweet again by July 1? | 1656647940000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.079226371694077 | True | play | NO | public | 1651513670451 | SG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.11367188489777, "platformFee": 1.254192598236213, "liquidityFee": 7.525155589417276} | 0 | 1656684757120 | 570.3385923602536 | SG | 1656639703115 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1656639702965 | 1653297509905 | 0.008374689042501798 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3421563328155237 | SJtyH55BQv85zKLGtXbT | {"NO": 46.448785248351214, "YES": 860.9859604073213} | 0 | will-modernas-mrna-cmv-vaccine-be-a | 868.6284050921822 | Will Moderna's mRNA CMV vaccine be approved by 2024? | 1704171540000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5231756616990757 | True | play | NO | public | 1651513727776 | Sarah |
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.39720560709550157, "platformFee": 0.06620093451591695, "liquidityFee": 0.39720560709550157} | 0 | 1704579161455 | 180.3972056070955 | SarahC | 1704579161800 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1683160095794}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.7 | 1704144725618 | 1704579157096 | 0.03 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0867773411121705 | YJkDcOTRT2yN6d1nvwpy | {"NO": 148.60556048234872, "YES": 338.9034283187071} | 0 | will-there-be-quantumscape-batterie | 347.12357232682314 | Will there be QuantumScape batteries in VW vehicles by 2024? | 1704862740000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1651513802985 | Sarah | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.039999999999999834} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10854140263914727, "platformFee": 0.018090233773191217, "liquidityFee": 0.10854140263914727} | 0 | 1717473996598 | 160.10854140263916 | SarahC | 1704862740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 0 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 3 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736827405}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 0.1 | 1704440576134 | 0.04 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 |
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