p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49389336005707213 | NtLVQS2dtySWg3BWCiKT | {"NO": 92.91536296143735, "YES": 114.31903876876686} | 0 | will-the-open-philanthropy-article | 309.43189054554034 | Will the Open Philanthropy article on Wikipedia reach Good Article status? | 1654066740000 | 5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.720969918570142 | True | play | NO | public | 1651514603169 | Ruth Grace Wong | The article is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Philanthropy_(organization)
It is currently nominated for Good Article. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4944241141569257, "platformFee": 0.24907068569282093, "liquidityFee": 1.4944241141569257} | 0 | 1654274672654 | 101.49442411415691 | RuthGraceWong | 1654019153151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654019152722 | 1652735518985 | 0.44232488968377337 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2950398043150287 | V5sjm8UaDhykw3w04FGg | {"NO": 135.85477621982807, "YES": 153.21886425026392} | 0 | will-the-average-price-of-lithiumio | 50.6757800163288 | Will the average price of lithium-ion batteries drop below $120/kWh by 2023? | 1680407940000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5823247741068194 | True | play | NO | public | 1651514749675 | Sarah | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.39926714313554107, "platformFee": 0.0665445238559235, "liquidityFee": 0.39926714313554107} | 0 | 1701971833431 | 140.39926714313555 | SarahC | 1701971863168 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 0.3 | 1680399889111 | 1701971862505 | 0.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5025042658475479 | bmq3DIZCw4oh4KPhd579 | {"NO": 144.84140324586548, "YES": 78.2768030722831} | 0 | will-i-hit-my-fitness-goals-this-we | 130 | Will I hit my fitness goals this week? | 1651902550497 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6991687606605352 | True | play | NO | public | 1651515833817 | tenadome | This resolves to YES if I:
1. Log how many calories I consumed + how much I weighed in the morning in my spreadsheet every day through and including 05/08/2022.
2. Consume 2600+ calories on each of those days
3. Go to the gym and complete my lifting routine (~1 hour) on Tuesday and Thursday, also Sunday.
4. Run at leas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1573874528472774, "platformFee": 0.5262312421412129, "liquidityFee": 3.1573874528472774} | 0 | 1651902550497 | 103.15738745284727 | nmehndir | 1651927405086 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651847184524 | 1651927403371 | 0.6514468807145145 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49924370810451296 | idYGdKYsI7zQJKN9ewb6 | {"NO": 30.289685674289426, "YES": 340.6791507744609} | 0 | will-there-be-a-significant-conflic | 242 | Will there be a significant conflict outbreak on Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border in July or August 2022? | 1661979600000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.436300851732618 | True | play | NO | public | 1651516010026 | AVS | May 2, 9:26pm: this market also resolves "YES" if an outbreak starts before July but it is still in its hot phase in July. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9029336249381035, "platformFee": 0.11641687987980054, "liquidityFee": 0.6985012792788031} | 0 | 1662115077502 | 100.6985012792788 | AVS | 1661945504274 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1669912631368}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1661945503094 | 0.0814236653224548 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
r8AXxooTrHRkgeOcYWcr | which-charities-should-manifold-add | 138 | Which charities should manifold add to Manifold for Good? | 1652500740000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.923348198101932 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651519069073 | Sinclair Chen | Which charities do you want to see on https://manifold.markets/charity that aren't there already?
Resolving N/A, just give your actual opinion. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652620752937 | 360 | Sinclair | 1659076107146 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ad6344f3cb7", "prob": 0.5250997689561017, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.943264377953646, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.646688303421286, "textFts": "", "contractId": "r8AXxooTrHRkgeOcYWcr", "createdTime": 1651519069154, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1661276886316}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "effective-altruism", "manifold-for-charity"] | 1652175913604 | 1659076105649 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jbHjOTLnc6nm5DPyw2IR | which-answer-to-this-question-will-94c10795a5f3 | 101 | which answer to this question will most efficiently transfer "free market" liquidity to me? | 1651519484301 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.01564734330884 | True | play | 8945385b80a8 | public | 1651519466318 | Adam | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651519484301 | 240 | Adam | 1651519478506 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "35cea0dc3d03", "prob": 0.9802960494069209, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.35542839821462, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6704441108041119, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jbHjOTLnc6nm5DPyw2IR", "createdTime": 1651519466406, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1651519478316 | {"8945385b80a8": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5240790788449247 | e1MOItjmVKrwCeUdhoX6 | {"NO": 83.22094994442465, "YES": 258.69903791214574} | 0 | will-i-create-15-new-markets-this-m | 1741.3026138754824 | Will I create 15+ new markets this month? | 1654066800000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1925747773388964 | True | play | NO | public | 1651524766951 | SneakySly | The new daily free market feature should highly incentivize market creation.
As a result, will I create 15+ new markets this month (INCLUSIVE of this market, so currently the count is 1).
In the past I have only made two other markets.
Link to my profile to see my markets: https://manifold.markets/SneakySly
May 10... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.533636711643357, "platformFee": 4.255606118607226, "liquidityFee": 25.533636711643357} | 0 | 1654068499836 | 125.53363671164333 | SneakySly | 1654059853245 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654059851962 | 1653598420001 | 0.5723217837671675 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42391315175391653 | xlWoBJEw5ZOh9QcBy9Ic | {"NO": 66.77731687552352, "YES": 257.9747489114278} | 0.15999999999999998 | will-apple-allocate-at-least-01-of | 289.07924815157065 | Will Apple allocate at least 0.1% of their balance sheet in Bitcoin by end of 2025? | 1669929679887 | OwrYTGe0ddM14XvQoeYpUpBtBXW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7278248739133595 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651526013171 | Kliment Serafimov | This market resolves 'YES' if on 31st of December 2025 Apple has at least 0.1% of their balance sheet allocated in Bitcoin; otherwise it resolves to No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669929679887 | 122.2287404104062 | KlimentSerafimov | 1669046975007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoNC5MlDBCIg_egMTCcyRSi4YLzPRqfCltRiu-ww=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0.5 | 1669046974865 | 1651535199404 | 0.15999999999999998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12522640575948785 | eqTO2aDPDN9ONszSFixI | {"NO": 145.3367001291099, "YES": 109.52780933598764} | 0.15963221510490758 | in-10-years-will-i-think-my-time-bu | 74 | In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste? | 1967148000000 | BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651528869780 | Uzay | Context:
- Tools: https://archivy.github.io and https://github.com/Uzay-G/espial
- Notes: https://knowledge.uzpg.me
Close date updated to 2032-05-03 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3195579835812775, "platformFee": 0.05325966393021291, "liquidityFee": 0.3195579835812775} | 0 | 140.31955798358126 | uzpg | 1683630303043 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "TFT", "slug": "tft", "userId": "Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2", "groupId": "iZZuk7X6qSrNGSoGJ2is", "createdTime": 1675715431665}] | ["tft"] | 0.11 | 1683630302700 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6590067720109464 | m5U1v7c9KElMeeFnY6DW | {"NO": 25467.90594410985, "YES": 523.1301072817114} | 1 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen | 90529.94467000714 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Nevada? | 1668307875346 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5189336741149821 | True | basic | YES | public | 1651529980359 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-10 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9131395740147281, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1668307875346 | 2400.2714932126696 | NcyRocks | 1668307286412 | 0 | 138 | 0 | 116 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529432968}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503543}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxl... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1668307286240 | 1668307230874 | 0.9894832679370128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7165568690936913 | EnosctgStoyrnI3BqjEw | {"NO": 9636.390555656702, "YES": 302.5669136695034} | 1 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-d1f1d2727b34 | 21447.774868645196 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Arizona? | 1668224593157 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.02187201818316 | True | play | YES | public | 1651530075183 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-10 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.099166562385603, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854932, "liquidityFee": 0.14268727705112957} | 0 | 1668224593157 | 880.1426872770511 | NcyRocks | 1668224277289 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 46 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983498}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478419}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1668224276877 | 1668164293319 | 0.9641259015784501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5713560772227092 | UNaE54EweswtuQu9Ayvd | {"NO": 69591.92857637466, "YES": 164.80303325951536} | 1 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-3d2432ba6d79 | 161020.86195728948 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia? | 1670384371577 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.06662770201331902 | True | basic | YES | public | 1651530106774 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4414405010281603, "platformFee": 0.07110808829580027, "liquidityFee": 0.4266485297748016} | 0 | 1670384371577 | 2241.426648529775 | NcyRocks | 1670384440445 | 0 | 164 | 0 | 131 | [{"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime": 1669146442518}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666011233888}, {... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "polymarket", "2022-georgia-runoffs"] | 0.5 | 1670384341550 | 1670384436155 | 0.9967956221344771 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3496569958743233 | 1liqxEXLsEeGE2nhWXId | {"NO": 105.10168990231097, "YES": 98.77921245652018} | 0 | will-david-have-more-than-5-cups-of | 60 | Will David have more than 5 cups of tea this Wednesday? | 1651763468917 | 2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.987385767475324 | True | play | NO | public | 1651531076343 | Forrest | @SirSalty stated the following on Discord:
> Hey @everyone! I'm super excited to be joining as the new community manager! My name's David but feel free to call me whatever you want 😅 I'm from the UK so feel free to create markets such as "Will David see a dentist to fix his teeth this decade?" or "Will David have mor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4229750815303157, "platformFee": 0.23716251358838597, "liquidityFee": 1.4229750815303157} | 0 | 1651763468917 | 101.42297508153031 | Forrest | 1651552102754 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1651552101242 | 1651549979536 | 0.363893193046092 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9899920750687898 | BMmcMK5pojhGK0aqJHZQ | {"NO": 100.11671225710947, "YES": 100.11671225710944} | 0.9899920750687898 | given-that-the-bitcoin-market-see-b | 1.8735536903641687 | Given that the Bitcoin market (see below) resolves in my favour, and given that charity donations don't affect profit, will I give M$4000 to charity? | 1652067343379 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651533754242 | Undox | (a) Resolves N/A if this https://manifold.markets/GregB/will-bitcoin-be-above-50k-by-the-en market is not resolved NO by market close.
(b) Also resolves N/A if giving M$ to charity will negatively affect my profit shown in portfolio or leaderboard.
(c) Otherwise, resolves YES if I give the M$4000 proceeds to charity ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05840431515820402, "platformFee": 0.009734052526367337, "liquidityFee": 0.05840431515820402} | 0 | 1652067343379 | 100.0584043151582 | Undox | 1651538328141 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1651538326789 | 1651533995170 | 0.9899920750687898 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5026923435031229 | Fu0JQDLTJ6i9f2aQuy8U | {"NO": 129.23405964278007, "YES": 84.17217380042294} | 0.35 | what-probability-will-i-assign-to-j | 85 | What probability will I assign to Jeanne Calment having been a fraud? | 1654214460000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7145891902994066 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651537318675 | Conflux | Jeanne Calment is generally held to have lived to 122, but no one else has ever lived to 122. Or 121. Or 120. However, it's possible she was a fraud - one theory is that her daughter, Yvonne, impersonated her when she died in 1934 to avoid inheritance taxes. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/17/was-jeanne-cal... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.089067001486641, "platformFee": 0.3481778335811069, "liquidityFee": 2.089067001486641} | 0 | 1654219359499 | 102.08906700148664 | Conflux | 1671230241072 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654184794558 | 1671230239379 | 0.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17630635442263048 | k7BttE9ObEGbmYf5G1hW | {"NO": 63.56415822935511, "YES": 565.4471956819904} | 0 | will-partial-resolution-of-yesno-ma | 835.4333299452273 | Will partial resolution of yes/no markets be supported by 2022-11-01? | 1667275200000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.558568369932706 | True | play | NO | public | 1651539389916 | Martin Randall | This market resolves Yes if Manifold adds a feature to support partial resolution of yes/no markets by close. It resolves No if not.
Suppose there is a market "How many times will Donald Trump tweet in 2023?", which resolves to 0 if there are no tweets, 100 if there are 100+ tweets, 50 if there are 50 tweets, and so f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.361333252061872, "platformFee": 1.2803501323792723, "liquidityFee": 7.68210079427563} | 0 | 1667304625600 | 178.40210771340156 | MartinRandall | 1667274335388 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0.5 | 1667274335249 | 1662177390780 | 0.02349613674656352 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8782472477697024 | PoaT64n91xFB4259qti6 | {"NO": 3510.54582853775, "YES": 214.97205478133833} | 1 | will-david-still-be-the-manifold-co | 6662.59783817244 | Will David still be the Manifold Community Manager in a year? | 1683086340000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.169289184708272 | True | play | YES | public | 1651539460139 | wasabipesto | David joined the Manifold team today as the new community manager, so to welcome him I'm curious to see the odds of him sticking around for a year. On one hand, he seems pretty nice so far and the Manifold community is decently tame. On the other, being a community manager is notoriously stressful and Manifold is growi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7152225914830916, "platformFee": 0.5704256991859852, "liquidityFee": 3.4225541951159104} | 0 | 1683146708497 | 323.4225541951159 | wasabipesto | 1683151903516 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661860984323}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.7 | 1683077979020 | 1683151900008 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7469550892196009 | T0D44Iv9AnHVC2zLhcd9 | {"NO": 2449.209064982022, "YES": 77.23810470132526} | 1 | the-supreme-court-will-release-a-ma | 2495.444270744726 | The Supreme Court will release a majority opinion in 2023 that overturns Roe v. Wade | 1656085924319 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3360005982776393 | True | play | YES | public | 1651540216680 | Ken Michaels | This market resolves to YES one week after the Supreme Courts opinion is released officially with a majority of the Justices opining that Roe v. Wade should be overturned,
May 3, 6:40am: this opinion is scheduled to be released in June 2022. I can't edit the title of this prediction to correct it but I do have this be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.845714989840971, "platformFee": 0.7067434424681744, "liquidityFee": 4.240460654809047} | 0 | 1656085924319 | 204.24046065480903 | kenmichaels | 1656085976257 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9 | 12 | 0 | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330761}] | ["scotus"] | 0.5 | 1656081322735 | 1656085969120 | 0.9894295435631614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6713668527945937 | kvXmeloGWnyTLpPldj9t | {"NO": 169.04412496253556, "YES": 100.75909059297112} | 0.7741336338078553 | will-any-of-the-following-me-lapras | 110.86473313512829 | Will any of the following: me, LaprasIRL, ersatzyork, RealLPerezLA have children within the next five years? | 1809306960000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651541326646 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if any of us manage to have children in five years with any women. Miscarriages don't count. | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.286668013441742, "platformFee": 0.006435050250465066, "liquidityFee": 0.03861030150279039} | 0 | 120.03861030150279 | EnopoletusHarding | 1684144738362 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736829054}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 0.65 | 1684144738261 | 1651603555216 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7768730472513601 | vDMvBN9eLwVpqmST49Sg | {"NO": 51.776975749641274, "YES": 130.14109828687037} | 0.580752290400157 | if-manifold-adds-a-market-creation | 139.12360963880155 | If Manifold adds a market creation streak counter, will @SneakySly create 15+ new markets this month? | 1653567622352 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.939281365890251 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651542666117 | Austin | Using FUTARCHY to decide whether we ought to implement this feature. We've been discussing adding something like this on the user profile page.
Manifold must add the market creation streak counter before 5/20, otherwise this market resolves N/A.
May 2, 10:10pm: Reference to https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-i-c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653567622352 | 102.98793905312591 | Austin | 1653567639260 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.78 | 1653550020556 | 1653567636445 | 0.5807522904001569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
issg19oMBknNB4a3ri7T | what-is-the-best-opening-move-in-ex | 123 | What is the best opening move in expert Minesweeper? | 1691641441778 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.959789520666651 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651543085285 | Bolton Bailey | Sometime in the next year or so, I plan to take a weekend to write a deep RL bot to play minesweeper. When I do this, I will train the bot on expert mode (16x30 board, 99 mines) and then see what first move it chooses.
Answers must be in the form R-C, where R is an integer 1 <= R <= 8 representing a row and C is an int... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1691641441778 | 580 | BoltonBailey | 1691641425522 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3be544200bc9", "prob": 0.6830134553650707, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.87719198750355, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.435204801400396, "textFts": "", "contractId": "issg19oMBknNB4a3ri7T", "createdTime": 1651543085383, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 5 | 1691641425387 | 1691622778677 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9495404409916384 | neXBybUazQGbRvZSPPa0 | {"NO": 135.77473616880442, "YES": 102.16574187981361} | 1 | will-manifold-hire-me-full-time | 427 | Will Manifold hire me full time? | 1654487940000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.093718624519056 | True | play | YES | public | 1651549501839 | Sinclair Chen | I'm contracting for manifold as an engineer as a work-trial throughout May. If I do a good job, they'll hire me full time.
I personally enjoy the work I've done so far, and I get along well with the rest of the team, so I'm pretty bullish on this! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8241411834378822, "platformFee": 0.3040235305729804, "liquidityFee": 1.8241411834378822} | 0 | 1654571040984 | 101.82414118343787 | Sinclair | 1654433899146 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.95 | 1654433885889 | 1654433897082 | 0.96155069482066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | J82hGvQchCvKCYZytlEJ | {"NO": 109.99928672359447, "YES": 0.016608441545895268} | 1 | daily-market-c8f206cd2fc2 | 10 | Daily Market | 1651550549806 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613774076056245 | True | play | YES | public | 1651550471734 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1651550549806 | 100.00427965843322 | Jenny | 1651550535583 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651550533892 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.467212135410313 | mM1NiN3wSOU8Qad1bPH3 | {"NO": 34.02860982152136, "YES": 12404.12671373122} | 0 | will-the-roe-v-wade-draft-leaker-be | 12812.6083888758 | Will the Roe v Wade draft leaker be caught within a week? | 1652241540000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.197491704596488 | True | play | NO | public | 1651552516790 | SG | Background: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/02/us/roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court#roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court
Resolves YES if the identity of the person (or persons) who leaked the purported draft of the Roe v Wade decision is confirmed by a reputable source before end of day on May 10th, 2022. Resolves N... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.578794574999947, "platformFee": 4.096465762499992, "liquidityFee": 24.578794574999947} | 0 | 1652244692038 | 524.578794575 | SG | 1652240212836 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1652240211548 | 0.0023999062938032585 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3998684583822953 | 7brXfmyK6hnewGG1PMuY | {"NO": 92.11565581613254, "YES": 114.94638011613478} | 0 | will-i-play-through-a-game-of-spiri | 15 | Will I play through a game of Spirit Island in the next two weeks? | 1652770740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.881212212746351 | True | play | NO | public | 1651553602942 | Alicorn | Spirit Island is the new "it game" in my house but I find it aversive to learn complicated new board games and the one time I tried to start I had to bail because (for temporary reasons) my house was too loud for me to process what I was being taught. Will I get all the way through a game soon? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3217193031913978, "platformFee": 0.053619883865232976, "liquidityFee": 0.3217193031913978} | 0 | 1652805116566 | 100.3217193031914 | Alicorn | 1651956813219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1651956813067 | 1651703895408 | 0.34809258160116185 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | LTXNTryGOlBN7rb7Dkan | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | this-will-resolve-yes-test | 13 | This will resolve YES (test) | 1651555134059 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1651555079325 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1651555134059 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1651555114647 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651555114418 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27460487574452547 | RceTI72nHirOmfDMGboW | {"NO": 149.81206320612046, "YES": 37.184079383544635} | 1 | test-6e3b5957b03c | 50 | test | 1651559460192 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6616775878012873 | True | play | YES | public | 1651559335734 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1276207632773123, "platformFee": 0.18793679387955203, "liquidityFee": 1.1276207632773123} | 0 | 1651559460192 | 101.1276207632773 | Electricitypipe | 1651559453776 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1651559450201 | 0.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gx2pDveHfHuKS4L9j23r | which-cryonics-organizations-are-th | 256 | Which cryonics organizations are the best targets for altruistic contributions? | 1652857140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.898695807340387 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651560237740 | Jack | This market is intended to help learn which organizations focused on cryonics, or more generally brain/body preservation, are the best targets for donations. (It is not about the best organizations to choose to cryopreserve yourself, that would be a separate market.) This could include organizations focused on e.g. res... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652857460317 | 300 | jack | 1652857564281 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ebf1cb927ad4", "prob": 0.4328254847645429, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 65.53796782368103, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 85.88095303615161, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gx2pDveHfHuKS4L9j23r", "createdTime": 1651560237841, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452213}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590303}, {"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI... | ["effective-altruism", "technology-default", "cryonics"] | 1652856208349 | 1652857560385 | {"3296436917dd": 40.90354090354089, "6dec255d566d": 59.09645909645911} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.729930243303434 | XrMcD04PCDu3kGGgVdlG | {"NO": 99.44259878167296, "YES": 100.7782239185222} | 0.95 | what-percentage-of-ltff-grant-dolla | 119.25824647025513 | What percentage of LTFF grant dollars will go to AI in late 2022? | 1672646340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5056660878206882 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651563446627 | Jack | What percentage of funding allocated by the Long Term Future Fund (https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future), on their last grant report published in 2022, will be for work that is primarily related to AI?
This resolves to the percentage as computed from the payout reports at https://funds.effectivealtruis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.717110406390602, "platformFee": 0.034647191669284656, "liquidityFee": 0.20788315001570795} | 0 | 1674536756566 | 100.2078831500157 | jack | 1674323885192 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590147}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181909272}] | ["effective-altruism", "ai"] | 0.73 | 1667245298705 | 1674323880950 | False | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5001212728640486 | 5L6qAnuqmv50C5ftDH0V | {"NO": 529.0312640857426, "YES": 19.123703046600895} | 1 | will-mario-draghi-resign-before-dec | 432 | Will Mario Draghi resign before Dec. 31, 2022? | 1658409986886 | ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.005538278150161 | True | play | YES | public | 1651572108453 | Leo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.194980258148793, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1658409986886 | 100.27149321266968 | Leo | 1658409966938 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1658409965699 | 0.8607853207010521 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.709999653259679 | VlDbJTSuAAj4tX9KBoHV | {"NO": 3.000004297881574, "YES": 600.3027878679322} | 0 | will-this-market-have-comments-from | 4661.828030671881 | Will this Market have comments from 100 unique users before June? | 1654055940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.511751484231336 | True | play | NO | public | 1651572501924 | Manifold | If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child.
Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.297137074123416, "platformFee": 3.716189512353904, "liquidityFee": 22.297137074123416} | 0 | 1654343993766 | 122.29713707412347 | Manifold | 1654048778235 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1654048776841 | 1654026866885 | 0.012087311091602078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7017006724477818 | FrzMTKNBYD8bYvISWpqC | {"NO": 2.832829534655783, "YES": 473.0503818118063} | 0 | will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-fae0c436ac66 | 500.9834285657205 | Will Russia formally declare war on Ukraine by the end of May? | 1654055940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.761631148507356 | True | play | NO | public | 1651576371018 | David Glidden | See https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
Resolves YES if Russia/Putin formally declares war on Ukraine before June 1st, 2022. I’m thinking “formally” here means multiple major media outlets reporting on an official statement by the Russian government or Putin h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.329087213187715, "platformFee": 0.7215145355312858, "liquidityFee": 4.329087213187715} | 0 | 1654080964595 | 104.32908721318772 | dglid | 1654000372863 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1654000371446 | 1652255252421 | 0.01389112849512685 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RjTQSqs6JQnSV9zoxLNy | which-ethereum-l2-will-have-the-low | 156 | Which Ethereum L2 will have the lowest transaction fee as of June 1, 2023? | 1685635200000 | U5DftYcGR2cVdK5bOwW3Lv16Bb53 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.982845296966577 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651578895983 | Dan Barrett | To close this market, I will examine all networks listed at the following website and choose the lowest "Send ETH" fee, as they are listed on June 1, 2023 at 12pm GMT+0
https://l2fees.info/
If this site becomes unavailable in the meantime, this market will close in a wash. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1690397284717 | 400 | DanBarrett | 1685627491460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyg4kfuqAnd6XlGEk1n6zbvgfULj372j3RQ9Tfl=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1973713b5f5b", "prob": 0.7969938775510205, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.25770636293126, "userId": "U5DftYcGR2cVdK5bOwW3Lv16Bb53", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.329669459576056, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RjTQSqs6JQnSV9zoxLNy", "createdTime": 1651578896068, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 12 | 3 | [] | [] | 1685627491118 | 1652944319197 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5036307392805397 | RR4sXnEa0hdZrkOibdPB | {"NO": 199.72092204755987, "YES": 53.98179939099358} | 1 | will-sinn-fein-become-the-largest-p | 100 | Will Sinn Fein become the largest party in Northern Ireland? | 1651748400000 | yuHreZE1oMcx4IKdJIQw3kGJzIj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9177178104048496 | True | play | YES | public | 1651579541726 | ciwhite | This market resolves to yes if Sinn Fein win the most amount of seats in the upcoming (May 5th 2022) Northern Ireland Election.
Note, 'most seats' means that Sinn Fein do not have to win a majority of the seats, just be the party with most elected members in parliament.
Market will close at 12 noon on the day of the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6744677146409943, "platformFee": 0.2790779524401657, "liquidityFee": 1.6744677146409943} | 0 | 1651998658403 | 101.67446771464098 | CianWhite | 1651702047348 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJypca6JBurUNkDmi0B2hYxgKdr8YnhtHoycNEcp=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651702045904 | 0.7896467234356718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3930838771181087 | rT9z7hD76bsmp0mQJs07 | {"NO": 42.31122819092994, "YES": 423.61233173544537} | 0.06076031649832491 | will-the-federal-law-making-gay-mar | 324 | Will the federal law making gay marriage legal be overturned before 2023? | 1651686301652 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.434959879685022 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651582324978 | Nathan Young | May 3, 1:52pm: Overturned by the Supreme court. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.326009587327524, "platformFee": 0.38766826455458736, "liquidityFee": 2.326009587327524} | 0 | 1651686301652 | 102.32600958732752 | NathanpmYoung | 1651685953374 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | 1651643177880 | 1651685950438 | 0.06076031649832491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10288082929511803 | mPsTc3HiudGhe1l4u8TF | {"NO": 123.18604257732123, "YES": 19.062207107785603} | 1 | is-person-a-member-of-group | 25 | Is [person] a [member of group]? | 1651680629630 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.634957632496983 | True | play | YES | public | 1651582767439 | Nuño Sempere | Private question, may not resolve. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8890683345483431, "platformFee": 0.1481780557580572, "liquidityFee": 0.8890683345483431} | 0 | 1651680629630 | 100.88906833454834 | NuñoSempere | 1651680625274 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.1 | 1651600763317 | 1651680620544 | 0.42564810095211647 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.481278081202047 | Klt27ZZXD3gTkcXqmE2X | {"NO": 15.786907779392322, "YES": 880.1700307106679} | 0 | will-russia-officially-declare-war | 1092.343623339243 | Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine before end of May 2022? | 1654030800000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.347618733227024 | True | play | NO | public | 1651583162759 | AVS | Inspired by https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-03-22/h_28c9de8e10aca93d0d8d51b1bcd4b9a9 "Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say"
May 3, 4:22pm: Did not see David Glidden's market https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1760010368466975, "platformFee": 0.8626668394744494, "liquidityFee": 5.1760010368466975} | 0 | 1654073611193 | 105.1760010368467 | AVS | 1654028562675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1669912720559}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1669912713625}, {"name... | ["russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine"] | 0.5 | 1654028561181 | 1652255224641 | 0.016369075527345484 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5908628049236401 | Yys8WplDhb486GHyFGxY | {"NO": 2002.9677844123016, "YES": 35.98726644189236} | 1 | will-i-still-live-in-nyc-as-of-sept | 2089.772850137251 | Will I still live in NYC as of September 30th? | 1664596740000 | 2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.331722264872285 | True | play | YES | public | 1651587115175 | Forrest | This will resolve true if, as of September 30th 2022, my primary residence is in New York City.
Points in favor of remaining in NYC:
- The majority of my friends are here, as are several family members
- There are the obvious advantages to living in a big city
- Especially since I don't drive
- Moving is logisticall... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.101696822934883, "platformFee": 0.8143252397571062, "liquidityFee": 4.885951438542638} | 0 | 1664627493320 | 199.5756037353177 | Forrest | 1664594719050 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1662478776789}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.55 | 1664594718855 | 0.9877118229788823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
d9I5L0Ys8PeXRFCcfcWr | which-manifold-market-team-member-w | 1389 | Which Manifold Market team member will be pushed unsuspectingly into a swimming pool first? | 1651898234980 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.650472377710932 | True | play | d1fa34772f3c | public | 1651589665936 | Manifold | Six of the manifold market team are currently in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA program. The hotel we are staying at has a swimming pool which begs the question, who is going to get pushed in? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.959999999999997, "platformFee": 3.4899999999999993, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651898234980 | 700 | Manifold | 1651880893784 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "404901929472", "prob": 0.005183170659522183, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03367163541799376, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.462667696209921, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d9I5L0Ys8PeXRFCcfcWr", "createdTime": 1651589666163, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1651880892474 | 1651790844433 | {"d1fa34772f3c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019755954231682266 | 9NBWUQ0t01Oh14eHnP3E | {"NO": 101.32193538882174, "YES": 2.0042964638642062} | 0 | will-i-include-any-of-the-links-in | 137.9880623001605 | Will I include any of the links in the comments in my next linkpost? | 1652468340000 | G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.283563551232664 | True | play | NO | public | 1651594588757 | Sam Harsimony | I plan to post my next linkpost on May 14th. I am looking for more things to add, but I am pretty picky about what I include. Here are my previous linkposts to give you a sense of what I am interested in:
https://harsimony.wordpress.com/tag/links/
Will resolve to NO if the comments below don't lead me to include a new... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.34411565444695996, "platformFee": 0.05735260907449334, "liquidityFee": 0.34411565444695996} | 0 | 1652471751426 | 100.34411565444695 | SamHarsimony | 1651956761939 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHG2tIPogQSAicyVVtqTDp_FBGj2gT-oxGk9Er=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1651956761794 | 1651610417104 | 0.5046656589231384 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mKjkbY4SGCjgTxDm2uU9 | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat | 2365 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the NC-13 House election? | 1652866207386 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.636037405764519 | True | play | 8369afc52dbc | public | 1651599326671 | Tetra | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina#District_13
Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm
May 17, 5:41pm: The Ballotpedia article for this election is at https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2022
The declare... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.799999999999997, "platformFee": 5.449999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652866207386 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1652845660177 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "20a2eb202a54", "prob": 0.01609089568182936, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.35667685471754024, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.80969982003261, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mKjkbY4SGCjgTxDm2uU9", "createdTime": 1651599326815, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503954}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652845658766 | {"8369afc52dbc": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | vOZbUXUYSZ0zZw1QF3Zw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | if-kurt-schrader-is-the-democratic | 0 | If Kurt Schrader is the Democratic nominee for the OR-05 House seat, will he win the seat? | 1664140247932 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.888113252333105 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651600094609 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664140247932 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1664138003490 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101194}] | ["us-2022-elections"] | 0.6 | 1664138000420 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4892928909220693 | q0xlKYImt2cKQnLcRcfF | {"NO": 329.96605270426437, "YES": 409.36306476738855} | 0 | if-jamie-mcleodskinner-is-the-democ | 220.78560511742015 | Will Jamie McLeod-Skinner win the OR-5 House seat in the 2022 election? | 1668124800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9689713721103241 | True | play | NO | public | 1651600175452 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:24pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Jamie McLeod-Skinner is the Democratic nominee for the OR-05 House seat, will he win the seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Jamie McLeod-Skinner win the OR-05 Ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668379017324 | 370 | Tetraspace | 1668033088436 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506006}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101197}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.6 | 1668033088117 | 1664724305582 | 0.4357453466254946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5004452366632309 | nvQR2U1CuiLaf9bBds7H | {"NO": 104.57810510720364, "YES": 879.2876410191568} | 0 | will-i-write-a-blog-post-in-the-nex | 723.4333222126506 | Will I write a blog post in the next 2 months? | 1656885540000 | BTvncdSbMrYZG95y4lUCQxwrGKO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5564559322965417 | True | play | NO | public | 1651600738767 | Uzay | Resolves YES if i've published a new post on my blog https://uzpg.me/blog.html in the next two months, otherwise NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.266692016317522, "platformFee": 0.2939275745009003, "liquidityFee": 1.7635654470054014} | 0 | 1656924957742 | 301.76356544700536 | uzpg | 1656885449176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx1qQr-9Po2MYUMosCKx7gZgt0uJSli8_6Vcja=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656885447836 | 0.10646236385912712 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uIVrqaW7bj77J8902Ph3 | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-e204467e677e | 1515 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the PA-17 House election? | 1652866261981 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6475803611098625 | True | play | 054195264636 | public | 1651600980098 | Tetra | https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_17th_Congressional_District_election,_2022
Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.79999999999999, "platformFee": 4.1999999999999975, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652866261981 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1652845731476 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3f6c634a4e82", "prob": 0.004356871330697426, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04995653868339544, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.416193111276236, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uIVrqaW7bj77J8902Ph3", "createdTime": 1651600980315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509610}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652845729996 | 1652371376731 | {"054195264636": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1s0xwUAV8oxJFZgItib4 | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-2e30a4f6bf5b | 100 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the PA-07 House election? | 1651601128665 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651601096050 | Tetra | https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania's_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651601128665 | 220 | Tetraspace | 1652383660467 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c94e2fe0f760", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1s0xwUAV8oxJFZgItib4", "createdTime": 1651601096269, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | 1651601096050 | 1652383659108 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4c8oZopY7FAXzEL9Ebzc | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-9108e13c1c0b | 361 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the NM-02 House election? | 1654556400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.744667495359565 | True | play | eee638d2bcc3 | public | 1651602133967 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.040000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0100000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654677043670 | 300 | Tetraspace | 1654552738575 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a73e7ad6a860", "prob": 0.07673360394717658, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.834396051271422, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.13583672850288, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4c8oZopY7FAXzEL9Ebzc", "createdTime": 1651602134198, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469379}] | ["politics-default"] | 1654552737089 | {"eee638d2bcc3": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vgExutHApQVOOMBdOdNY | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-b10d64b6907d | 269 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the NV-01 House election? | 1655161200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.785309400309797 | True | play | b4e3abeda25a | public | 1651602644043 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.8, "platformFee": 1.2, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655304195879 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1655303568314 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8ca3f1a24e51", "prob": 0.13819598955238319, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.592261140584082, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.818299698796395, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vgExutHApQVOOMBdOdNY", "createdTime": 1651602644220, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510885}] | ["politics-default"] | 1655023689659 | 1655303564249 | {"b4e3abeda25a": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3308937660530832 | bTfPjXp9EuiUZBI0uCXn | {"NO": 95.42382306469763, "YES": 339.9794543111671} | 0 | if-max-rose-is-the-democratic-nomin | 442.73540520267636 | Will Max Rose win the NY-11 House seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5517363857331974 | True | play | NO | public | 1651602917230 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 2:29pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Max Rose is the Democratic nominee for NY-11, will he win the House seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Max Rose win the NY-11 House seat in the 2022 election?", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016706861 | 160 | Tetraspace | 1667862013121 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495485}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101198}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1667862009267 | 1661387010274 | 0.12188470007253568 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Rlkh8FA8e8gwqcwKdTde | {"NO": 82.64462809917357, "YES": 121} | 0.4058276855647093 | if-b-ramos-debarros-is-the-democrat | 21 | If B. Ramos DeBarros is the Democratic nominee for NY-11, will he win the House seat? | 1664214121068 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.790729342901346 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651602945614 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664214121068 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1663815665209 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486802}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101200}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1663815664950 | 1661387042515 | 0.4058276855647092 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zo1Fga3GDk5xU44jC5dK | who-will-the-be-the-democratic-nomi | 585 | Who will the be the Democratic nominee for the NY-01 House seat in the 2022 elections? | 1661209200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.697066424432996 | True | play | b3be948404af | public | 1651603026679 | Tetra |
Close date updated to 2022-08-23 12:00 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467710870 | 460 | Tetraspace | 1661363874527 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "626c30c46549", "prob": 0.02922054204105487, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6083497849065999, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.21090072905951, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Zo1Fga3GDk5xU44jC5dK", "createdTime": 1651603026880, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493723}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101199}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 1661200707644 | 1661363872711 | {"b3be948404af": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NXl4MOaJdtm0plD6jJl3 | who-will-the-be-the-democratic-nomi-9671d0284c26 | 203 | Who will the be the Democratic nominee for the IL-17 House seat in the 2022 elections? | 1656802800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.834818334989848 | True | play | 8a3b59d1a273 | public | 1651603227339 | Tetra |
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 12:00 am
Close date updated to 2022-07-03 12:00 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.88, "platformFee": 1.22, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656886547589 | 360 | Tetraspace | 1656800472413 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b600ab19bf63", "prob": 0.2426654371617851, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.48349283331024, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 51.44333278347791, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NXl4MOaJdtm0plD6jJl3", "createdTime": 1651603227611, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1656800471309 | 1656716963307 | {"8a3b59d1a273": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6217789755957139 | tGbQC4Gl6ak6FbtUmerg | {"NO": 160.47057965511956, "YES": 99.71811210071107} | 1 | if-sean-casten-is-the-democratic-no | 260.7688608739065 | Will Sean Casten win the IL-06 House seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.615407172750257 | True | play | YES | public | 1651603398271 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:22pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Sean Casten is the Democratic nominee for Illinois' 6th congressional district, will he win the House seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Sean Casten win the IL-0... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6594918737867672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016520214 | 120 | Tetraspace | 1667840109502 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508861}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458416}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCU... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.6 | 1667840108025 | 1658328103474 | 0.7256910275259785 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | 7EfxyJdkxYrGLqVDdnFE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6 | if-marie-newman-is-the-democratic-n | 0 | If Marie Newman is the Democratic nominee for Illinois' 6th congressional district, will she win the House seat? | 1660080065512 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.888113252333105 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651603424978 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660080065512 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1660069861777 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471884}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101200}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.6 | 1660069860287 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2cTYRbhUVU9FmebwzaD3 | who-will-the-be-the-democratic-nomi-1c522285f685 | 182 | Who will the be the Democratic nominee for the CO-08 House seat in the 2022 elections? | 1656370800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.857260568846125 | True | play | c80ac2b43e68 | public | 1651606754193 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.64, "platformFee": 1.41, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656421381778 | 300 | Tetraspace | 1656357259943 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2152e00f482b", "prob": 0.3018959062915107, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.41183505878459, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 79.57392738993349, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2cTYRbhUVU9FmebwzaD3", "createdTime": 1651606754381, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467929}] | ["politics-default"] | 1656357259759 | {"c80ac2b43e68": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.84 | BVHCTfWlc6tu6usZvjdK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.84 | if-peter-franchot-is-the-2022-democ | 0 | If Peter Franchot is the 2022 Democratic nominee for the Maryland gubernatorial election, will he become governor? | 1664213981639 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.157345093451968 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651606865941 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664213981639 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651606865941 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476080}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.84 | 0.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.84 | ROxTJtUeyaK1KhsPNaD6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.84 | if-doug-gansler-is-the-2022-democra | 0 | If Doug Gansler is the 2022 Democratic nominee for the Maryland gubernatorial election, will he become governor? | 1664213978438 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.157345093451968 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651606893477 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664213978438 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651606893477 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486386}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.84 | 0.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.84 | HbTDURpKvFFoFifqPa24 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.84 | if-tom-perez-is-the-2022-democratic | 0 | If Tom Perez is the 2022 Democratic nominee for the Maryland gubernatorial election, will he become governor? | 1664213975436 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.157345093451968 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651606924940 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664213975436 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651606924940 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480028}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.84 | 0.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9107304261814843 | t0MwQuA5dEmh33GOqw0E | {"NO": 364.29587309078073, "YES": 181.49746998146878} | 1 | if-wes-moore-is-the-2022-democratic | 1842.6635368190034 | Will Wes Moore (D) be elected governor of Maryland in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.182695174549847 | True | play | YES | public | 1651606946177 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:23pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Wes Moore is the 2022 Democratic nominee for the Maryland gubernatorial election, will he become governor?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Wes Moore be elected gove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.07617343122271847, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016569280 | 200 | Tetraspace | 1667862008485 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508514}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666011405371}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.84 | 1667862008296 | 1666014635211 | 0.9534389434776867 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8ror7A1rVeQiTQspDagG | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-8ee379a15b5b | 243 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the MD-01 House election? | 1658185200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.801881213586766 | True | play | 402eaae95c2c | public | 1651606997879 | Tetra |
Close date updated to 2022-07-19 12:00 am | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.480000000000001, "platformFee": 1.1200000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658955592802 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1658011140779 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c39af6e77222", "prob": 0.16935087808430285, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.254228790025364, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 65.01066679219542, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8ror7A1rVeQiTQspDagG", "createdTime": 1651606998091, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473569}] | ["politics-default"] | 1658011139537 | {"402eaae95c2c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hv6xpSmFYTS2CulAE2XQ | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-c8d9105cf233 | 198 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election? | 1659394800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.839774262250697 | True | play | 46e417f8b238 | public | 1651607386985 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467731279 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1659339613814 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ffa550a02f4d", "prob": 0.2550760126517702, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.89664117230487, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 61.02655087959917, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Hv6xpSmFYTS2CulAE2XQ", "createdTime": 1651607387228, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480252}] | ["politics-default"] | 1659339612529 | {"46e417f8b238": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8T7jCoiVTSjlecqAvdAd | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-7e433b6defcd | 184 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 AZ-06 House election? | 1659394800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.854926641247013 | True | play | 92119512eba6 | public | 1651607596040 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467882926 | 360 | Tetraspace | 1659374476856 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2678c4a5cf15", "prob": 0.2953686200378072, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.772786616151446, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 63.86915975149091, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8T7jCoiVTSjlecqAvdAd", "createdTime": 1651607596266, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101190}] | ["us-2022-elections"] | 1659374475694 | {"92119512eba6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4504521548658139 | GlAEhKdUDeumF4ofB7X3 | {"NO": 932.5838323291533, "YES": 85.75144445032976} | 0 | will-melange-technologies-have-at-l | 52638.60716637939 | Will Melange Technologies have at least 1,000 MAU by the end of 2022? | 1652704633937 | f87Mwyg2ujTyKqWOU0VmJgvfeWe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.632661197940749 | True | play | NO | public | 1651608844568 | Joshua Beck | This market resolves to "Yes" if Melange has at least 1,000 MAU by December 31, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 64.88824659756285, "platformFee": 10.814707766260481, "liquidityFee": 64.88824659756285} | 0 | 1652704633937 | 364.88824659756295 | JoshuaBeck | 1652709388248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwzrEldIJ8Hs6ylxK6KCNF79UBg4g0fW83NCaPK=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.75 | 1652445109381 | 1652709386957 | 0.8991360831078079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pmKJyiq5m37Vt0BRrP0j | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-3d743833b8b2 | 197 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the MI-10 House seat? | 1659394800000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.840792514508828 | True | play | fa866cef1aae | public | 1651609163873 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467855485 | 360 | Tetraspace | 1659339353525 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ad0426ed6256", "prob": 0.25767218944059367, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.21732901234943, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.482303151677485, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pmKJyiq5m37Vt0BRrP0j", "createdTime": 1651609164154, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505770}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101192}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 1659339352137 | {"fa866cef1aae": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
f6kY2T7q3zL7It2fn4VN | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-939c2306f064 | 521 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election? | 1659999600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.706675725635297 | True | play | fbf89c02098d | public | 1651609407032 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467832272 | 320 | Tetraspace | 1660175983625 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "87d460fe48f8", "prob": 0.03684041835979089, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7292148127023526, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.20876498477158, "textFts": "", "contractId": "f6kY2T7q3zL7It2fn4VN", "createdTime": 1651609407371, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498069}] | ["politics-default"] | 1659954022980 | 1660175980727 | {"fbf89c02098d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RQ3tbu2hY51l9NSwbgVY | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-5eb2fe00a887 | 454 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election? | 1660604400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.719490443017389 | True | play | 13905d9832a8 | public | 1651609659030 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467808332 | 300 | Tetraspace | 1660548898404 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f1f48cc9e57c", "prob": 0.04851636942304334, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8989514869013673, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.24147698051485, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RQ3tbu2hY51l9NSwbgVY", "createdTime": 1651609659426, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486459}] | ["politics-default"] | 1660548895368 | {"13905d9832a8": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GXH1Uzn7k6q0IIGTxzae | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-fe08025848ec | 100 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 Alaska Senate election? | 1652383563039 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651609757158 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652383563039 | 220 | Tetraspace | 1652383562378 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ad46f19eae3f", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GXH1Uzn7k6q0IIGTxzae", "createdTime": 1651609757342, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479440}] | ["politics-default"] | 1651609757158 | 1652383558813 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7500373097357631 | m5hl0Xcleu2o0hVWNenC | {"NO": 339.9083484764441, "YES": 289.1768806228462} | 0 | will-there-be-any-winners-of-the-me | 40 | Will there be any winners of the Mega Millions jackpot in May? | 1654066740000 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5319956727777784 | True | play | NO | public | 1651609759595 | LukeW | This market resolves to YES if any of the nine planned Mega Millions drawings in May 2022 yields a jackpot winner.
May 3, 1:48pm: The nine drawings in May occur on 5/3, 5/6, 5/10, 5/13, 5/17, 5/20, 5/24, 5/27, 5/31 (each Tuesday and Friday).
May 4, 4:12pm: 5/3 drawing yielded no jackpot winner
May 7, 10:32am: 5/6 dr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5499091413352271, "platformFee": 0.09165152355587118, "liquidityFee": 0.5499091413352271} | 0 | 1654087569575 | 300.5499091413352 | LukeW | 1653801035369 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1653801035227 | 1651706032771 | 0.7791033491639028 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07126993609260665 | 7k51cHV4gR4Uw0AfP9IC | {"NO": 348.7782901491615, "YES": 522.7710151407393} | 0 | if-charlie-crist-is-the-democratic | 688.1774879120967 | Will Charlie Crist be elected governor of Florida in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.574347096234124 | True | play | NO | public | 1651609958569 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:28pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Charlie Crist is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, will he become governor?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Charlie Crist be elect... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016778536 | 360 | Tetraspace | 1667862007905 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472367}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1664738855608}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.1 | 1667862007492 | 1664447400356 | 0.04870462398550545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10011836152018537 | CMTGqYeOcX9d2Huy5akp | {"NO": 104.95766257773727, "YES": 68.09120436565661} | 0.14638987370685644 | if-nikki-fried-is-the-democratic-no | 5 | If Nikki Fried is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, will she become governor? | 1664213934925 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.688749099301535 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651609985128 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664213934925 | 100.25402453357641 | Tetraspace | 1663816833875 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477073}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.1 | 1663816833752 | 1661387151562 | 0.14638987370685644 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
S158KnNJbiDTxN5qjt0s | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-7b2f3f0fb06d | 1119.2726899996305 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 Florida Senate election? | 1661209200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.658901632837931 | True | play | 6b9747ab7285 | public | 1651610042464 | Tetra | May 4, 4:33pm: Resolves as the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Florida senate election. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661467775838 | 360 | Tetraspace | 1661208900027 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d8127492411c", "prob": 0.008018732497474744, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08651434004207696, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.702514982150928, "textFts": "", "contractId": "S158KnNJbiDTxN5qjt0s", "createdTime": 1651610042678, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487018}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983497}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 1661208899891 | 1651755208933 | {"6b9747ab7285": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8pX50EY7IIXJQ8p7Btj7 | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-ccba528985b8 | 320 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 New Hampshire gubernatorial election? | 1663023600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.760091685216676 | True | play | 846aeb638bf5 | public | 1651610221167 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663116481026 | 280 | Tetraspace | 1662876954001 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ea1d029ad50e", "prob": 0.09765624999999999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.710371425309791, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 71.24383196986248, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8pX50EY7IIXJQ8p7Btj7", "createdTime": 1651610221379, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473360}] | ["politics-default"] | 1662876953834 | {"846aeb638bf5": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.85 | ApMcG7PZqrXnXDT7LslK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.85 | if-nellie-gorbea-is-the-democratic | 0 | If Nellie Gorbea is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Rhode Island gubernatorial election, will she become governor? | 1664213901254 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.436448474979963 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651610341918 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664213901254 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651610341918 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475258}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.85 | 0.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8996863659486996 | ibPSjBxwlsSg5GOqGKoJ | {"NO": 518.5907711397648, "YES": 136.42693588414483} | 1 | if-dan-mckee-is-the-democratic-nomi | 430 | Will Dan McKee be elected governor of Rhode Island in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.677298187006215 | True | play | YES | public | 1651610373934 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:29pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Dan McKee is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Rhode Island gubernatorial election, will she become governor?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Dan McKee be elected... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668016621122 | 160 | Tetraspace | 1667862006753 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501086}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.85 | 1667862006578 | 1663461078071 | 0.9715036903923016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k8ALLRtNm7tqHDUvFyNw | who-will-win-the-democratic-nominat-fd285d366850 | 115 | Who will win the Democratic nomination for the RI-02 House election? | 1663023600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.974821181696528 | True | play | 73b068e17648 | public | 1651610412334 | Tetra | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663345686621 | 260 | Tetraspace | 1651610441706 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1eb10e5ad36f", "prob": 0.7561436672967864, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.43055676915293, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.00385455805182, "textFts": "", "contractId": "k8ALLRtNm7tqHDUvFyNw", "createdTime": 1651610412587, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502288}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101197}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 1651610440299 | {"73b068e17648": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12946095151893447 | JfKnTBlmWxIlbmB5hpea | {"NO": 254.6272469341223, "YES": 1014.6241601457115} | 0 | will-mathjax-implement-automatic-li | 715 | Will MathJax implement automatic line wrapping? | 1654282800000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.666792210934676 | True | play | NO | public | 1651610500285 | Rai | Resolves to YES if at closing time MathJax (latest version - 3) can automatically insert line wrapping into long formulas.
Test case is: [$]a + b + c + d + e + f + g + ... + z = 0[/$] on small mobile display should wrap into multiple lines
I've put a $500 bounty on this getting fixed: https://www.facebook.com/groups/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.255039125729885, "platformFee": 0.37583985428831423, "liquidityFee": 2.255039125729885} | 0 | 1654931959688 | 302.2550391257299 | agentydragon | 1654931955335 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 1652381632335 | 1654931951637 | 0.0359780112482019 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7555369613014735 | xeCF1AccqXCQJ7VRHHcv | {"NO": 1158.3399329806832, "YES": 70.45227031756613} | 1 | will-rai-michael-pokorny-be-a-fullt | 1044.4028111765256 | Will Rai (Michael Pokorny) be a full-time employee at OpenAI at market close? | 1671134400000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.723722633747379 | True | play | YES | public | 1651610839390 | Rai | I (Rai, Michael Pokorny), am currently a research resident at OpenAI. I started on May 2. The program takes 6 months initially and I might or might not have a full-time offer extended by OpenAI to stay on the technical staff after the residency. This market resolves to YES if I am, as of December 15, 2023, a full-time ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4524756077994532, "platformFee": 0.195805185885327, "liquidityFee": 1.174831115311962} | 0 | 1671597319840 | 181.17483111531195 | agentydragon | 1671114179032 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1665692370388}, {"name": "Rai's personal", "slug": "rais-personal", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "Yc6gPlZaH1x8JSf76N1X", "createdTime": 1665692372845}... | ["personal-goals", "rais-personal"] | 0.5 | 1671114178866 | 1665712086850 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5035294944201768 | Bmrm5RVbOyUHzVYHLb9c | {"NO": 589.1563742038455, "YES": 164.70151072202293} | 1 | is-there-a-max-character-limit-for | 290 | Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max character limit for question names? Is there a max... | 1651633634835 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2670374380181926 | True | play | YES | public | 1651615115671 | Emmy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.061754776927931, "platformFee": 0.8436257961546553, "liquidityFee": 5.061754776927931} | 0 | 1651633634835 | 305.0617547769279 | emmy | 1651632130578 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651632128957 | 1651617052776 | 0.7839228418421854 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4998207221957609 | vvnyBbMLLLk4CCRhEWGJ | {"NO": 240.49179376167024, "YES": 424.37074033935414} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-set-a-charact | 490.65405517314423 | Will Manifold Markets set a character limit for additions to a market's description by this Saturday? | 1651813140000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.118690853311754 | True | play | NO | public | 1651616427290 | tenadome | This resolves YES if I find that there's a character limit in the "Add to description" box at some point on Saturday (no specific time set, probably in the morning or afternoon CDT).
May 3, 5:20pm: See below.
May 3, 5:23pm: test
May 3, 5:24pm: Huh. I entered 3.3 million characters and didn't get stopped, but it didn... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.715904948665026, "platformFee": 1.6193174914441708, "liquidityFee": 9.715904948665026} | 0 | 1651943487381 | 309.715904948665 | nmehndir | 1651767897334 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651767895672 | 1651624623210 | 0.3615510190348648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48837921882108226 | YO8bekDtzLohd0q9Djk1 | {"NO": 63.23977140922557, "YES": 3008.911516619878} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-implement-sav | 2730.7715442455665 | Will Manifold Markets implement saving question drafts by June 30, 2022? | 1656572340000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0056049489698635 | True | play | NO | public | 1651619252041 | Rachel Shu | This market resolves to YES if, prior to June 30, 2022, I am able to refresh the homepage of Manifold and not lose text written in the question dialog. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.487582021905265, "platformFee": 1.4371095569940369, "liquidityFee": 8.62265734196422} | 0 | 1657654499174 | 408.62265734196427 | noumena | 1657654510354 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656545311694 | 1657654508668 | 0.019668126695962507 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9889226415039986 | mhgbFsOFB2NNq77PNbYd | {"NO": 5.187865791129202, "YES": 419.9141002518381} | 1 | will-i-send-a-beemail-by-midnight-p | 20 | Will I send a beemail by midnight pacific today? | 1651647540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.434425369070645 | True | play | YES | public | 1651619436626 | Daniel Reeves | This is a commitment device for myself! I generally never do things like this until Beeminder makes me but let's see if Manifold can induce me to. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5153984889714278, "platformFee": 0.08589974816190463, "liquidityFee": 0.5153984889714278} | 0 | 1651647573261 | 400.5153984889714 | dreev | 1651647627031 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383027240}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.99 | 1651627269444 | 1651647620161 | 0.524476691962201 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6149871749510104 | yVmlLYnMNhnVYHgZmbTy | {"NO": 953.3696032070645, "YES": 27.3727057460542} | 1 | covid19-pandemic-will-the-united-st | 854 | COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by June 1, 2022? | 1653164828140 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.155751431163815 | True | play | YES | public | 1651619590664 | Rachel Shu | Data for this question is drawn from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html), which uses figures reported by federal and state agencies. As of May 3, 2022, the current official death count is 992,424, and the daily death rate is 331, with a 14-day change of -22%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7823807576119965, "platformFee": 0.6303967929353328, "liquidityFee": 3.7823807576119965} | 0 | 1653164828140 | 103.78238075761199 | noumena | 1653164823827 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.6 | 1653164822499 | 1651703447715 | 0.9777757599690837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2484749155889291 | 5SBKiKIBkhJMP6hWMiXC | {"NO": 231.76148896444352, "YES": 729.473635191759} | 0 | will-mo-donegal-win-the-kentucky-de | 545 | WILL Mo Donegal win the Kentucky Derby? | 1651980465164 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6145799702642853 | True | play | NO | public | 1651622741163 | BCG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.052945518121998, "platformFee": 0.6754909196869998, "liquidityFee": 4.052945518121998} | 0 | 1651980465164 | 304.05294551812204 | BruceGrugett | 1678689590687 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 1651706810820 | 1678689587647 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7864382800548364 | e4kvNOkMZahBgKIHsNUi | {"NO": 274.7398536980194, "YES": 441.07101947235543} | 0.6963987239507953 | did-the-dobbs-v-jackson-leak-come-f | 2239.221079203934 | Did the Dobbs v. Jackson leak come from the left? | 1683183540000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3515414094758351 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651623587093 | Rahul Sridhar | Resolves to YES if the leaker:
* is identified as pro-choice, OR
* clerked or worked for a current liberal SCOTUS justice (Sotomayor, Breyer, Kagan), OR
* was upset with the draft opinion
Resolves to N/A if the leaker is never identified by the time the market closes. Resolves to NO otherwise.
This market is somew... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683223618319 | 422.79400170859026 | fortenforge | 1683223786715 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 1 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496887}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.7 | 1683156925191 | 1683223784451 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014053549663926518 | 4HvV8TU35XcjRFh4sZAO | {"NO": 339.99985486527083, "YES": 0.002988860330776078} | 1 | daily-market-d1bf6ebcefcd | 40 | Daily market | 1651625252305 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.468784430460499 | True | play | YES | public | 1651625216595 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0008708083754253692, "platformFee": 0.00014513472923756155, "liquidityFee": 0.0008708083754253692} | 0 | 1651625252305 | 300.00087080837545 | Jenny | 1651625242845 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651625241535 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | T8h6A3oeHc2BB4LCzV00 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01 | test-market-e980fb501f5f | 0 | Test market | 1651625372036 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651625346793 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651625372036 | 100 | Jenny | 1651625346793 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5540043616459941 | 4zsZd5OlzRIcnU9ddABu | {"NO": 993.1299707068462, "YES": 244.0209940733962} | 1 | will-there-be-at-least-10-earthquak | 1249.1092518954536 | Will there be at least 10 earthquakes of 7.0+ magnitude in 2022? | 1668581861062 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9432447143694128 | True | play | YES | public | 1651630650083 | LukeW | This market resolves to "YES" if by the end of 2022 there have been 10 or more earthquakes of at least 7.0 magnitude (according to the Moment Magnitude Scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale). Resolves to "NO" otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9870870147158275, "platformFee": 0.49784783578597136, "liquidityFee": 2.9870870147158275} | 0 | 1668581861062 | 462.9870870147158 | LukeW | 1668581844166 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522410}] | ["science-default"] | 0.55 | 1668457037845 | 1668581837703 | 0.834860030277659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3330181540203799 | jtptFH1qfUWYFjEuiO24 | {"NO": 648.9644077234997, "YES": 2225.522038564702} | 0.12709024629638702 | will-the-supreme-court-overturn-gri | 3149.857057229975 | Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.? | 1809316740000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.766615887381443 | False | basic | public | 1651631610270 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if the Supreme Court overturns Griggs v. Duke Power Co. in the next five years. It resolves to no if the case is not overturned. | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.865432460326126, "platformFee": 3.998109409429768, "liquidityFee": 3.7201918752072354} | 0 | 1000 | EnopoletusHarding | 1716473859249 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502146}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428654}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL... | ["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"] | 0.5 | 1716473855780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014523606529076118 | qZuXK6R2qvBBtTd52nUa | {"NO": 349.99999000189825, "YES": 0.00019067488222712647} | 1 | will-2-2-4 | 50 | Will 2 * 2 = 4 | 1651632915647 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.451990120479595 | True | play | YES | public | 1651632857678 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.99886104207803e-05, "platformFee": 9.998101736796716e-06, "liquidityFee": 5.99886104207803e-05} | 0 | 1651632915647 | 300.0000599886104 | Undox | 1651632877177 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651632875723 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8705636622933102 | 63vfxagQ5rGYzDoeBdcm | {"NO": 2601.758607263927, "YES": 695.3338843564187} | 0.9617827817664109 | will-samesex-marriage-be-federally | 6048.569837846757 | Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026? | 1798779540000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.32562815084318 | False | basic | public | 1651636008891 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MattP/will-a-federal-protection-for-gay-m", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold... | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.9212638391599, "platformFee": 1.2236708461672403, "liquidityFee": 7.261751671350976} | 0 | 1000 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1714915166815 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470238}, {"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549361}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBj... | ["trans-questions", "politics-default", "us-politics", "lgbtqia", "olivia"] | 0.45 | 1714915163563 | 1659072638226 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jYvAY8VQordqYz9bTQU1 | how-many-manifold-team-members-in-t | 823.7031436144414 | How many Manifold team members in the Bahamas will test positive for COVID? | 1651982340000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.676130153209002 | True | play | 2028dd480ed9 | public | 1651636594990 | Sinclair Chen | I have just tested positive for covid. The plan is for the rest of the team to get take-home antigen tests within the next few days. (If we don't all test, this resolves N/A)
Details:
- There are currently 6 Manifolk in the Bahamas, including me. If other Manifolk fly in or get hired, I won't count them for this quest... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.331874255422345, "platformFee": 6.582968563855586, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652721402258 | 840 | Sinclair | 1652360838025 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "976a7595cfe0", "prob": 0.14265165743231722, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.652589524730009, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.97253384554662, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jYvAY8VQordqYz9bTQU1", "createdTime": 1651636595072, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1651956693180 | 1652360837795 | {"2028dd480ed9": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3552182241707895 | gc0AUkrU6di9FskVjmdm | {"NO": 319.444301047875, "YES": 526.0254719258115} | 0.25068799867681824 | will-there-be-a-widely-commercially | 194.33794361325616 | Will there be a widely commercially available Cryonics provider that is using aldehyde-stabilized brain preservation protocol by 2025? | 1735718340000 | Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651639648382 | Vlad Sitalo | The protocol I'm referring to is something similar to what has been used in https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/
This market resolves to yes if either:
- there is a new company that offers this protocol to its customers and as widely available for sign-up as Alcor/CI/Tomorrow Biostasis
- one o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7283783168372014, "platformFee": 0.12139638613953356, "liquidityFee": 0.7283783168372014} | 0 | 380.7283783168372 | vlad | 1711229014131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Transhumanism", "slug": "transhumanism", "userId": "Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2", "groupId": "HXBqBB65NqspMjMfiX30", "createdTime": 1675714978824}, {"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "osAdS5WK8oeGbRncQHQU", "createdTime": 1677443903287}, {"name": "A... | ["transhumanism", "cryonics", "ancient-markets"] | 0.35 | 1711229010895 | 1711227959646 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999532775463574 | lKkEWURkwvdHGpRBZpum | {"NO": 125.63800219353253, "YES": 721.9051925987333} | 0.14821427923804195 | in-september-2022-will-there-be-reg | 422 | In September 2022, will there be regular direct flights between Russia and Israel, available to general public. | 1664571600000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4306020245610007 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651641365136 | AVS | This market resolves "YES" if there are regular direct flights from Russia to Israel and back at least once a week during entire September 2022, available to general public. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5688444076006423, "platformFee": 0.09480740126677371, "liquidityFee": 0.5688444076006423} | 0 | 1669284028889 | 300.56884440760064 | AVS | 1669284017146 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1669912846045}] | ["russia"] | 0.5 | 1664555098746 | 1669284014796 | 0.14821427923804195 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016080983867224518 | vqEm78AhPcPyO5xsOhYT | {"NO": 411.9999999999981, "YES": 2.907732721268985e-11} | 1 | test-2 | 112 | test 2 | 1651645465198 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.46314198057323 | True | play | YES | public | 1651645442738 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.110674219262364e-11, "platformFee": 1.8511236987706073e-12, "liquidityFee": 1.110674219262364e-11} | 0 | 1651645465198 | 300.0000000000111 | Electricitypipe | 1651645455348 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651645453488 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002627204551596 | CFjhO6bkOXOzG2ISPueG | {"NO": 466.29011472369797, "YES": 200.66738916479406} | 0 | will-i-consider-my-new-system-for-b | 283.7996513893661 | Will I consider my new system for beeminding my inbox successful? | 1669967940000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1975298563387546 | True | play | NO | public | 1651647381438 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rough notes which I intend to gradually turn into a coherent description of what I'm doing here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://doc.bmndr.co/inbox", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://doc.bmndr.co/inbox", "cl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4725634414889845, "platformFee": 0.4852569940504112, "liquidityFee": 2.911541964302467} | 0 | 1675652304335 | 302.91154196430244 | dreev | 1675652293219 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 10 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383164763}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.5 | 1667245225854 | 1675652290405 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25051930305510445 | L6gsBZ5n3BTvMg46i370 | {"NO": 395.484907717389, "YES": 604.5369490687517} | 0 | will-mario-draghi-be-announced-as-t | 940.9049794556701 | Will Mario Draghi be announced as the next NATO Secretary General before Dec. 31, 2022? | 1671317940000 | ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1040733401737401 | True | play | NO | public | 1651658344333 | Leo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to ‘YES’ if (soon-to-be-) former prime minister Mario Draghi has been announced as the new NATO Secretary General before December 31st.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See (in Italian) ", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14513547041857855, "platformFee": 0.024189245069763093, "liquidityFee": 0.14513547041857855} | 0 | 1672493478154 | 440.14513547041855 | Leo | 1671265233935 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 3 | 14 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664296602289}, {"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1664296590123}, {"name"... | ["global-macro", "politics-default", "nato", "central-europe", "world-default", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 1671265233772 | 0.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
caLigUkX6CkXWGrLXaL8 | how-many-ea-bahamas-folks-will-repo | 7331.119054314702 | How many EA Bahamas folks will report positive COVID tests on Slack within a week? | 1652237372164 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.623458927985773 | True | play | 8f91625e769a | public | 1651661405551 | Austin | For context, Sinclair just tested positive: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-manifold-team-members-in-t
We've spent the last day in the EA Bahamas office, including on a bus from the office to the hotel packed with about 15 total folks. I'd estimate there to be 30ish total EA Bahamas people atm. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.23710836541809, "platformFee": 9.559277091354522, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652237372164 | 840 | Austin | 1652233050786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "02939a4bf878", "prob": 0.0025244436785136315, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.015239778113746926, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.021645989415027, "textFts": "", "contractId": "caLigUkX6CkXWGrLXaL8", "createdTime": 1651661405722, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 1652233050542 | 1652123489272 | {"8f91625e769a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38309602142350613 | CgYyeLT415splYjNVWrR | {"NO": 201.26466931340235, "YES": 14804.036475137398} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-surpass-its-intrada | 35563.911701555786 | Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024? | 1703884950342 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0.08303781063830498 | 1.0638300422688864 | True | basic | NO | public | 1651666768624 | Manifold | S&P 500 hit its all-time intraday high on Jan 4th 2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500
At the time of writing it has been moving between the ranges of 4050-4300
Will it surpass that in the next year and a half before 2024? Are we due for a bullish or bearish season after a couple yea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.855275521876733, "platformFee": 0.14254592031278884, "liquidityFee": 0.855275521876733} | 0 | 1703884950342 | 1150.8552755218768 | Manifold | 1710211783562 | 1.1 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"] | 0.13391387477179664 | 0.65 | 1703884604894 | 1703883699127 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5522899110965268 | hrZdZcdNgtH7vV7o3XHM | {"NO": 734.2804188016079, "YES": 171.9704412496126} | 1 | if-henry-cuellar-is-the-democratic | 662.925056302872 | Will Henry Cuellar win the TX-28 house seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2549919561814251 | True | play | YES | public | 1651670709437 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:56pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Henry Cuellar is the Democratic nominee for the TX-28 House seat in 2022, will he win the seat?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Henry Cuellar win the TX-28 house se... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.684550125734249, "platformFee": 0.21176470588235297, "liquidityFee": 1.2705882352941178} | 0 | 1668016650403 | 341.2705882352941 | Tetraspace | 1667862083445 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101198}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500505}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": ... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1667862083161 | 1660935269683 | 0.8404386672100871 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5001103329581604 | U3hLr1wVoJ41p1pFmyHa | {"NO": 100.38347588882493, "YES": 101.89151424619459} | 0.49638263344403744 | if-jessica-cisneros-is-the-democrat | 20 | If Jessica Cisneros is the Democratic nominee for the TX-28 House seat in 2022, will she win the seat? | 1654446368274 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.750111127568899 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651670746786 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654446368274 | 100.56742306173189 | Tetraspace | 1654446390770 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488642}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653651914480 | 1654446388858 | 0.4963826334440374 |
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