p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.10057261717777469 | j2ieGPefqJ0e2LE2erql | {"NO": 1039.5332675288664, "YES": 623.9240636993881} | 0.15704517677626392 | will-the-next-pope-be-a-black-man | 5025.389745995777 | Will the next Pope be a Black man? | 1893456060000 | W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.0703467744027 | False | basic | public | 1651671970251 | Franek Żak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES, if the next pope selected is a black person.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2030-01-01 1:01 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.11295482322373604} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.403780920985717, "platformFee": 0.6978865929790751, "liquidityFee": 4.18731955787445} | 0 | 1000 | FranekZak | 1719233255694 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c | 52 | 0 | 6 | 29 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1672828978947}] | ["religion"] | 0.05 | 1719233252633 | 1674821918480 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7529260499001433 | Ldxi6OoRDAEzodulMtq6 | {"NO": 525.8690296383693, "YES": 296.63069296487254} | 1 | will-there-be-a-covid19-related-sto | 1394.301468892543 | Will there be a COVID-19 related story on the front page of the NYTimes in the week of December 1-8, 2022? | 1667361540000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4070494910979792 | True | play | YES | public | 1651674575497 | Ben | This resolves "YES" if any of the NYTimes front pages from Dec 1-8 in 2022 has an article about COVID. The article has to be primarily COVID/pandemic related, or directly reference the pandemic in the headline or first paragraph. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper
Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:5... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.972627770096654, "platformFee": 1.957746827310612, "liquidityFee": 11.74648096386367} | 0 | 1670116061324 | 397.48549093499355 | bcongdon | 1670116057904 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 5 | 19 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601087}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670112626836}] | ["medicine", "please-resolve"] | 0.8 | 1667357948009 | 1670116054189 | 0.843808613047302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FOCPVUufZPRKBVRgL5BB | how-will-manifold-markets-integrate | 267.8162537638052 | How will Manifold Markets implement a new comment/threading system? | 1652068740000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.793092823170767 | True | play | 13f24295d4ad | public | 1651675523661 | Manifold | Ian is about to start working on the comment system. We want to aim for Manifold Markets to be able to facilitate community and discussion similar to other social media platforms.
I've listed a couple of posibilities but if you have examples of systems that other websites incorporate that will work well please add the... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.4799999999999995, "platformFee": 1.6199999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654344087450 | 480 | Manifold | 1652002474208 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3f816308f93b", "prob": 0.15236908364635715, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.044195153107456, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50.31295878304594, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FOCPVUufZPRKBVRgL5BB", "createdTime": 1651675523857, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1652002470536 | 1651701742416 | {"13f24295d4ad": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.205605070603699 | ego0dfjoCdWsDcbA19Wr | {"NO": 137.90920484294443, "YES": 790.9826096629539} | 0 | will-vscoq-support-automatic-reload | 693.5619429991061 | Will VSCoq support automatic reloading of the proof view by 2023-05-04? | 1683214200000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.802001837113723 | True | play | NO | public | 1651678219813 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When I use VSCode for Coq using the VSCoq extension, I have to invoke a command to change the location within the proof I am inspecting. The UI for VSCode's Lean extension is much better - you just have to move your cursor and the proof view automa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7229183936202654, "platformFee": 0.12048639893671093, "liquidityFee": 0.7229183936202654} | 0 | 1683232953565 | 200.72291839362026 | BoltonBailey | 1683212119091 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451475}, {"name": "Formal Methods", "slug": "formal-methods", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4uIAvcDC0mx9LqrsmPbA", "createdTime": 1682806274395}] | ["technology-default", "formal-methods"] | 0.23 | 1683212118950 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20129521835289113 | 1VqCEoxyKnCmFqDL4lBG | {"NO": 166.56037192430293, "YES": 1573.7378949737213} | 0 | will-ingenuity-have-more-than-90-mi | 2289.8024237259397 | Will Ingenuity have more than 90 minutes of flight time by its first anniversary on Mars? | 1673067540000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4132179682000827 | True | play | NO | public | 1651682931863 | wasabipesto | Ingenuity is a small robotic helicopter operating on Mars as part of NASA's Mars 2020 mission along with the Perseverance rover, which landed on February 18, 2021. Two months later, on April 19, Ingenuity successfully completed the first powered controlled extraterrestrial flight by an aircraft—taking off vertically, h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.721514514912387, "platformFee": 0.28691908581873116, "liquidityFee": 1.721514514912387} | 0 | 1673104276002 | 301.72151451491237 | wasabipesto | 1673060374935 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1661860973272}] | ["space"] | 0.5 | 1673060374817 | 1672989206959 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09319825765983426 | 5mYQMHNxxmVNdbOeVSxu | {"NO": 125.10839458798463, "YES": 505.6497216165126} | 0 | will-it-be-established-by-the-end-o | 466 | Will it be established by the end of 2022 that the Supreme Court Leak came out of one or more Conservative Justice's office(s)? | 1672549200000 | U5DftYcGR2cVdK5bOwW3Lv16Bb53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.5017137553295345 | True | play | NO | public | 1651685442785 | Dan Barrett | Background: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/02/us/roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court#roe-v-wade-abortion-supreme-court
Resolves to Yes if a major news outlet confirms that the leak was made by one of the 6 conservative justices, by one of their clerks, or through a collaboration across multiple offices/clerks incl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5534476231393803, "platformFee": 0.2215323632472505, "liquidityFee": 1.3291941794835032} | 0 | 1673386996907 | 141.32919417948352 | DanBarrett | 1673251424247 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyg4kfuqAnd6XlGEk1n6zbvgfULj372j3RQ9Tfl=s96-c | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 12 | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330758}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427174}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": ... | ["law-order", "scotus", "please-resolve"] | 0.1 | 1672537653056 | 1673251421959 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04917612979238893 | N86ThpZ8HMx0SUsuUJMl | {"NO": 136.29039912111944, "YES": 1717.956517363528} | 0 | will-timnit-gebru-change-her-mind-o | 114396.38331656397 | Will Timnit Gebru change her mind on longtermism before July 1, 2022? | 1656647940000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1651685903798 | Peter Berggren | This market resolves to YES if Timnit Gebru puts out a statement declaring that she has changed her mind and decided that longtermism is a net positive for the world. A statement about rhetorical approaches, tone, etc. does not count, while a statement about how longtermism is a good concept which needs improvement in ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.541170874125073, "platformFee": 0.3692515701113398, "liquidityFee": 2.215509420668039} | 0 | 1656648951482 | 152.21550942066804 | PeterBerggren | 1656634267831 | 0 | 18 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447138}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483646}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "cr... | ["politics-default", "technology-default", "science-default"] | 0.05 | 1656634267685 | 1653450715004 | 0.0040862889925556405 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12576466512985382 | eStbWuTQwLgU38QR4xfn | {"NO": 146.26830171261938, "YES": 2007.8572696490544} | 0 | will-the-us-supreme-court-overturn | 6305.428187992533 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2023? | 1672534860000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.671209020797576 | True | play | NO | public | 1651687261207 | Nathan Young | Sorry, for the remake, I wrote it poorly yesterday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.49098075923523, "platformFee": 1.2754300063954167, "liquidityFee": 7.6525800383724984} | 0 | 1672535989293 | 227.6525800383725 | NathanpmYoung | 1672532525216 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 48 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659503742495}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497244}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": ... | ["politics-default", "law-order", "lgbtqia", "scotus"] | 0.3 | 1672532525030 | 1661316587911 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uBAPknZANEb2qZCOklau | by-what-date-will-users-be-able-to | 700.7045566345388 | By what date will users be able to follow specific other users on Manifold? | 1654293331734 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.687742909454434 | True | play | 1f815e11dd2a | public | 1651689658647 | Rachel Shu | At what point will Manifold begin its heroic journey to fulfill its noble and ultimate destiny as the one true social network? Resolves upon implementation of feature to the nearest date written in YYYY-MM-DD format that has not yet elapsed. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.760000000000001, "platformFee": 1.6900000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654293331734 | 540 | noumena | 1654293289730 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b004de2f15e1", "prob": 0.022729295366489804, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.33673045025315296, "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.47809089918474, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uBAPknZANEb2qZCOklau", "createdTime": 1651689658820, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1654269398534 | 1654293287797 | {"1f815e11dd2a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49748098326958223 | mUKp1meCWDFUdXyvJdOV | {"NO": 84.29965502462707, "YES": 134.91673692165236} | 0 | will-any-of-scotts-if-i-review-x-wi | 134.28148133207162 | Will any of Scott's "If I review X, will it get at least 125 likes" markets posted prior to May 4, 2022 resolve NO? | 1652338740000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.675878423072907 | True | play | NO | public | 1651691441384 | Rachel Shu | If not, then maybe it seems like Scott's setting the bar too low. Markets indicated by this post:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-rick-perlsteins-nixonla
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-joseph-stiglitzs-whithe
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2600197398771975, "platformFee": 0.5433366233128663, "liquidityFee": 3.2600197398771975} | 0 | 1677697554711 | 103.26001973987721 | noumena | 1652194245242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.5 | 1652194243683 | 1651764719333 | 0.38 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.299413774794254 | 0uuxXqXpszllNxAzG7U1 | {"NO": 96.75821056774664, "YES": 115.79403912438704} | 0 | will-i-burn-today-during-our-swim-b | 55 | Will I burn today during our swim break? | 1651720183862 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.259058022585912 | True | play | NO | public | 1651695432780 | Ian Philips | Run shirtless in Colorado. No sunscreen on the body for our 30 minute swim. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.051600525748409, "platformFee": 0.1752667542914015, "liquidityFee": 1.051600525748409} | 0 | 1651720183862 | 101.05160052574841 | ian | 1651720776775 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | 1651702975629 | 1651720773494 | 0.263144428357232 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
M7TMBx5dz9N05YAZt4Ae | will-manifold-markets-still-exist-i | 126 | Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040? | 1651765927470 | C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.948199085047036 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651696093090 | phil | Will manifold.markets still exist in 2040? By exist I mean a live website/app with >1 active users. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651765927470 | 300 | huot3000 | 1651759896835 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi7K_xxxU-sqQ94W8v3zvD5d5YajvbpLwDK5Aulvg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9c6ba938d91c", "prob": 0.6298815822625347, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.6916041513659, "userId": "C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.17718659934259, "textFts": "", "contractId": "M7TMBx5dz9N05YAZt4Ae", "createdTime": 1651696093260, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1651713837387 | 1651759896181 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8982075999294414 | reRhFLytCM6UBmofDBMz | {"NO": 22.17130661181196, "YES": 120.854532556839} | 0.6181438244013413 | can-you-make-mana-profits-simply-by | 21 | Can you make Mana profits simply by voting with the majority every day on every market? | 1652327940000 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.675016253399788 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651701820805 | Emmy | This seems like a natural consequence of subsidy
I will not actually test this so resolution will just be based on my judgement | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652374086717 | 100.87280465896607 | emmy | 1652374099716 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1652316223166 | 1652374098137 | 0.6181438244013413 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18599055911422843 | jHkRauu4JstXTdSYpSJ9 | {"NO": 157.7947034824791, "YES": 1920.690616477957} | 0 | will-mrbeast-overtake-pewdiepie-in | 2246.247348606201 | Will MrBeast overtake Pewdiepie in Youtube Subscribers before November? | 1667192340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7015642764492234 | True | play | NO | public | 1651701868375 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MrBeast currently has 94M subs on his main channel compared to Pewdiepie's 111M. Will he overtake pewds before this November? #youtube", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 202... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3215961417922393, "platformFee": 0.1571049423909386, "liquidityFee": 0.9426296543456315} | 0 | 1667848870437 | 300.94262965434564 | Manifold | 1667848921239 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 18 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1665715629833}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1665715635218}] | ["internet", "culture-default"] | 0.6 | 1667190610087 | 1667848920672 | 0.018425518771182935 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7901033324394231 | aPyn73QmosslXV8HIR7B | {"NO": 18.379932386904642, "YES": 167.2271121330142} | 0.2926506667950538 | can-you-make-mana-profits-simply-by-c301ab0cf7a7 | 166.45160576283075 | Can you make Mana profits simply by buying YES on every market every day? | 1652327940000 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.590686501578192 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651701990300 | Emmy | I will not actually test this so resolution will just be based on my judgement | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652374114805 | 102.88796413923792 | emmy | 1652374110628 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1652316202223 | 1652374109159 | 0.29265066679505386 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4543686185569115 | C07I9uCvCRFHbOdgJZzg | {"NO": 1097.955390279494, "YES": 5.8916540158548685} | 1 | covid19-pandemic-will-the-united-st-71f08c6bd66e | 1005.3333525374534 | COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by May 22, 2022? | 1653164857170 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.486403929014621 | True | play | YES | public | 1651703425528 | Rachel Shu | Time-adjusted clone of https://manifold.markets/noumena/covid19-pandemic-will-the-united-st to see how people's credences change.
Data for this question is drawn from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html), which uses figures reported by federal and state agencies. As of May ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.267543098315674, "platformFee": 0.7112571830526123, "liquidityFee": 4.267543098315674} | 0 | 1653164857170 | 104.26754309831566 | noumena | 1653164256764 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | 1653164237122 | 1653164256066 | 0.9935974347483635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.587866711569057 | iHnFt8bOrUqSH85i5r5n | {"NO": 18.3027709463896, "YES": 693.2117202981605} | 0 | will-this-market-close-between-7095 | 2568.981004092455 | Will this market close between 70-95% at the end of the month ? | 1654055940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5014889131893114 | True | play | NO | public | 1651703494552 | Manifold | Bit of a fun experiment. Can the power of No's outweigh the Yes voters? What happens if at the last moment "yes voters" make a push and overshoot it?
This is Manifold's hoarde vs alliance, which side are you on?
Closes midnight at the end of the month. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.77456024013072, "platformFee": 4.795760040021787, "liquidityFee": 28.77456024013072} | 0 | 1654343822231 | 128.77456024013068 | Manifold | 1654056688067 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1654055787962 | 1654056691950 | 0.03629414900270081 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16683021515345345 | P53wBzbdbExepRreHsV5 | {"NO": 211.87077157931924, "YES": 2.044954629272294} | 1 | will-james-like-the-vitamalt-hes-ab | 112 | Will James like the VitaMalt he’s about to try? | 1651707721463 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.9539311790344644 | True | play | YES | public | 1651707436888 | SG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7753705240847216, "platformFee": 0.12922842068078694, "liquidityFee": 0.7753705240847216} | 0 | 1651707721463 | 100.77537052408472 | SG | 1651707628729 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 1651707627342 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OrYomLcGGZF5nZwaN9tM | which-parties-will-form-the-next-ne | 642.8828958226865 | Which parties will form the next New Zealand Government? (OLD MECHANISM) | 1687480958988 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.696782917416805 | True | play | 5f6112360a11 | public | 1651707724282 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Via coalition or confidence-and-supply.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was made using the old multichoice market mechanism, which doesn't guarantee fixed payouts.", "type": "text"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1700951948797 | 660 | NcyRocks | 1687481001773 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4c044467526d", "prob": 0.029010187430616674, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4234377255553033, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.172735655538299, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OrYomLcGGZF5nZwaN9tM", "createdTime": 1651707724357, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 32 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484300}, {"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1658529439395}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "g... | ["nz-politics", "politics-default", "new-zealand"] | 0.1028053516227933 | 1686620793389 | 1687480999554 | {"5f6112360a11": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6997832686274015 | akACt2ngyBYyHKIlWJw1 | {"NO": 81.92867978243805, "YES": 110.8264647316451} | 0 | will-sir-salty-like-the-malt-drink | 33.072126960310705 | Will sir salty like the malt drink | 1651708015919 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2820365328362553 | True | play | NO | public | 1651707821843 | Ian Philips | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6084498482652554, "platformFee": 0.10140830804420924, "liquidityFee": 0.6084498482652554} | 0 | 1651708015919 | 100.60844984826527 | ian | 1652303673979 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | 1651708012599 | 1652303672433 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49925060266256754 | Xs6ILM4256zDmPsbs9nX | {"NO": 86.96197783493542, "YES": 118.56125443863488} | 0 | will-we-wind-up-having-to-rip-up-th | 30 | Will we wind up having to rip up the floor and/or ceiling? | 1652338740000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7546089226103008 | True | play | NO | public | 1651707996553 | Alicorn | My toddler got unsupervised access to the kitchen sink and got quite a bit of water on the floor before we noticed. First opinion flood remediation people think we need to tear up some floor and ceiling to make sure it doesn't get moldy in there; we're hoping to get a second opinion. What will we wind up doing?
May ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7580546704439584, "platformFee": 0.12634244507399306, "liquidityFee": 0.7580546704439584} | 0 | 1654464383069 | 100.75805467044395 | Alicorn | 1651956364341 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1659617500377}, {"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670521519407}] | ["parenting", "valinor"] | 0.5 | 1651956364146 | 1651712625446 | 0.4223932926191829 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8497892699752836 | GWwueeT0FFtXg8laVoMJ | {"NO": 72.34820113018876, "YES": 109.27582136439909} | 0.7892756355861501 | will-the-bug-letting-me-make-two-fr | 120 | Will the bug letting me make two free markets in a row get fixed by tomorrow? | 1651712828386 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.347236432164541 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651709200678 | Alicorn | I just made one like five minutes ago and yet here we are. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3553027725377675, "platformFee": 0.22588379542296125, "liquidityFee": 1.3553027725377675} | 0 | 1651712828386 | 101.35530277253777 | Alicorn | 1651712822476 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.85 | 1651712394743 | 1651712822156 | 0.7892756355861501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7000077443586009 | qzeUh4KjPztCgseR7Pyk | {"NO": 1143.0827521014369, "YES": 35.27061432696985} | 1 | will-my-company-meet-the-goals-requ | 1044 | Will my company meet the goals required for a company trip? | 1663070969642 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.600679553432399 | True | play | YES | public | 1651711240996 | wasabipesto | My company sets goals for the year and evaluates them in October. If we meet those goals, the entire company is taken on a trip to Cancun. In 2021 we were able to go but for three years prior we did not.
I'm setting the initial probability to 70% since I've heard rumors that the numbers are good so far. If the trip i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9749213356663446, "platformFee": 0.01153468742065011, "liquidityFee": 0.06920812452390065} | 0 | 1663070969642 | 100.0692081245239 | wasabipesto | 1663070964961 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.7 | 1663070963292 | 1651771485229 | 0.7952949737034998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
e7o8gla9VO3paFkYwTH0 | which-manifold-for-good-charity-sho | 145 | Which Manifold for Good charity should I donate to? | 1652338740000 | G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.910504809655133 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651711473699 | Sam Harsimony | I am looking for convincing arguments about which charity to donate to through Manifold for Good. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5, "platformFee": 1.25, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652369841426 | 320 | SamHarsimony | 1652009360590 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHG2tIPogQSAicyVVtqTDp_FBGj2gT-oxGk9Er=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e34d84d5074", "prob": 0.4756242568370987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 63.41656757827983, "userId": "G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.9167657550535, "textFts": "", "contractId": "e7o8gla9VO3paFkYwTH0", "createdTime": 1651711473786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1665931643244}] | ["manifold-for-charity"] | 1652009262870 | 1652009356356 | {"1f71238ccf04": 50.02974419988103, "21475ae14999": 49.97025580011897} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | bqh6MgGRgIzixpbGMnUM | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | will-trump-win-the-2016-presidentia | 13 | Will Trump win the 2016 Presidential Election? | 1651712259067 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1651712222295 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1651712259067 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1651712253075 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651712251658 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016334251310992146 | M3CgxjSmkV2gwREYVIjs | {"NO": 82.65667700289636, "YES": 49.9866752809916} | 0 | daily-market-f84b54dacd05 | 94 | Daily Market | 1651712783037 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.005423563987645 | True | play | NO | public | 1651712640983 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.07994831405129423, "platformFee": 0.013324719008549035, "liquidityFee": 0.07994831405129423} | 0 | 1651712783037 | 100.0799483140513 | Jenny | 1651712875172 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651712687462 | 1651712887566 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49636038734277294 | r5vcjavYfaGrhyXr7ObJ | {"NO": 10580.884022450953, "YES": 0.9844884687972808} | 1 | will-i-test-positive-for-covid-in-2 | 10658.158153851226 | Will I test positive for Covid in 2022? | 1656866961803 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.219699035648453 | True | play | YES | public | 1651714009621 | Jack | Resolves YES if I test positive on any rapid or PCR test, unless I believe it was a false positive due to follow-up testing. NO if not. N/A if I think it's too ambiguous for some reason (e.g. if I feel sick and want to test but can't get one)
Some context on myself:
- I rapid test whenever I feel sick or I suspect sig... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.751609410428836, "platformFee": 0.46420047388879027, "liquidityFee": 2.7852028433327414} | 0 | 1656866961803 | 102.78520284333277 | jack | 1656866957017 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463907}] | ["jacks-personal-covid-questions"] | 0.5 | 1656866952407 | 1656866948533 | 0.9683586467946914 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7338979494765143 | j1cQMoQ4NHNwBvVmjpsH | {"NO": 664.027633442374, "YES": 57.258217936214976} | 1 | will-i-finish-a-triathlon-4ea28f3c991e | 1471.0530525097106 | Will I finish a triathlon? | 1652587140000 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.98787527954799 | True | play | YES | public | 1651717330341 | @misha | I am doing a 750m swimming, 20K on a bike, and 5K running with Nuño and Sasha next Sunday. I haven't been doing any endurance exercises since December but last April I completed the "7km every 4 hours for 48 hours" challenge and I lift regularly.
See also: https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-i-finish-a-tria... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.820839340851178, "platformFee": 0.9701398901418629, "liquidityFee": 5.820839340851178} | 0 | 1652633910416 | 105.8208393408512 | misha | 1652633909158 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1652571287279 | 1652633904839 | 0.9696824734043594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05139029795084889 | gC2WntkCwftP88SfF9IM | {"NO": 101.19782940956578, "YES": 111.22175126697601} | 1 | will-cantor-complete-the-blockdragg | 114 | Will Cantor complete the block-dragging app? | 1662015540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.97943056728479 | True | play | YES | public | 1651717351932 | Daniel Reeves | I'm paying him a $1k bounty for it but he put down a $50 non-refundable deposit as a commitment to finishing it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.885100787657022, "platformFee": 0.147516797942837, "liquidityFee": 0.885100787657022} | 0 | 1662342977221 | 100.88510078765702 | dreev | 1662343185790 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.05 | 1661418417271 | 1662343181135 | 0.04697629333562366 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4973743516095584 | 0bvnAPHVd4QrB2sNE54l | {"NO": 52.77070671450386, "YES": 208.2076511641887} | 0 | will-my-substack-have-more-than-100 | 145.4210504173207 | Will my Substack have more than 100 free subscribers by the end of the month? | 1654053428541 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9175645113558724 | True | play | NO | public | 1651717691300 | Enopoletus Harding | Resolves to yes if my Substack has more than 100 free subscribers by the end of May; no if it has less. Currently it has 61.
https://eharding.substack.com | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.227790510943132, "platformFee": 0.37129841849052203, "liquidityFee": 2.227790510943132} | 0 | 1654053428541 | 102.22779051094312 | EnopoletusHarding | 1654053385340 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654053384088 | 0.37956581803459516 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5601559785745314 | ABwmS6FMWkznSgl2kHhk | {"NO": 24.34381495291004, "YES": 307.1068975145878} | 0 | will-i-have-60-commits-merged-to-ma | 537.0395788791341 | Will I have 60 commits merged to mathlib by August 4th? | 1659670500000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.552146418669098 | True | play | NO | public | 1651721801774 | Bolton Bailey | https://leanprover-community.github.io/mathlib_stats.html shows the number of commits merged by each author. This resolves to YES if my number of commits hits 60 on or before the close time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.928145564534432, "platformFee": 0.05901594610257309, "liquidityFee": 0.3540956766154385} | 0 | 1659719963195 | 100.35409567661544 | BoltonBailey | 1659599548329 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1667164635544}] | ["the-lean-theorem-prover"] | 0.56 | 1659599548204 | 0.09169411781223627 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.501982122586006 | 1Gk1QHedFklhJkS6DtJL | {"NO": 3.2892848782994406, "YES": 3202.8098272193984} | 0 | will-russia-declare-partial-mobiliz | 3202.9836627682907 | Will Russia declare partial mobilization before July 1, 2022? | 1656622800000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.286626173378327 | True | play | NO | public | 1651740235591 | AVS | This market resolves "YES" if Russian officials announce partial mobilization before January 1, 2023.
Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz
https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz-839d55901a6d
May 5, 11:48am: made a mistake in description. This mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.582720997194488, "platformFee": 0.3374453442173171, "liquidityFee": 2.0246720653039025} | 0 | 1656664489310 | 102.02467206530389 | AVS | 1656618454942 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663681696247}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663681695151}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": ... | ["russia", "world-default", "wars", "russian-mobilization", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1656618453675 | False | 0.0010341042323525186 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.034390031187708434 | H05NueHecKotqsZpFOAS | {"NO": 897.6834012561109, "YES": 3564.3559411186247} | 0.00888985908479659 | if-democrats-have-51-seats-in-the-s | 10301.883987287289 | If Democrats have 51 seats in the Senate after the midterms, will the Senate break legislative filibuster? | 1735862400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1651741894781 | Tetra | Resolves positively if:
• The Democrats have exactly 51 seats after the midterms, else N/A
• The U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn, else NO. | BINARY | {"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": 1.734723475976807e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0856709843383443, "platformFee": 0.014278497389724051, "liquidityFee": 0.0856709843383443} | 0 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1708270193400 | 0.1 | 13 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479654}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181865806}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.12282104894579385 | 0.3 | 1708270193220 | 1662680694743 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30052407833566175 | 8RhiF35omWQ9dzO9NowY | {"NO": 124.83895501906987, "YES": 61.81723257273925} | 0.4645692039771496 | if-democrats-have-52-seats-in-the-s | 26.57047273021781 | If Democrats have 52 seats in the Senate after the midterms, will the Senate break legislative filibuster? | 1668953970318 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.333502695817146 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651741956353 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " • The Democrats have exactly 51 seats after the midterms, else N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "• The U.S. Senate passes a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668953970318 | 100.5347950136711 | Tetraspace | 1668953967017 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472834}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.3 | 1667245205790 | 1668953967012 | 0.4645692039771497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5078668428651449 | t5uur5FWlRlmxOSw9FbM | {"NO": 861.2172915733354, "YES": 13.094361230986298} | 1 | conditional-on-early-political-elec | 910.8380746327335 | Conditional on early political elections been held in Italy in 2022, will Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia result the most-voted party? | 1664282921773 | ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.5973151476794225 | True | play | YES | public | 1651748221439 | Leo | This market resolves to ‘yes’ if, by the end of the year, early elections have been called in Italia AND Fratelli d’Italia results the most-voted party (even if it is unable/unwilling to form a government). The result of any eventual centre-right coalition will not matter. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3770689614767115, "platformFee": 0.22951149357945194, "liquidityFee": 1.3770689614767115} | 0 | 1664282921773 | 101.37706896147671 | Leo | 1664282907652 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663660305860}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663660296001}, {"name... | ["global-macro", "politics-default", "italian-affairs", "world-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "elections-world"] | 0.51 | 1664282907534 | 0.9851477186801613 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2779458384340654 | vd6ZQc0uJSW1sVsccj6B | {"NO": 276.3765522183339, "YES": 2726.530748749572} | 0 | will-manifold-support-making-market | 2915.469904220428 | Will Manifold support making markets automatically conditional on other markets by the end of 2022? | 1672531200000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1447991989856119 | True | play | NO | public | 1651752259274 | Tetra | Resolves YES if by the end of 2022 there is a feature whereby I can make a market that automatically resolves N/A if a different market doesn't resolve in a certain way. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.199427360400535, "platformFee": 1.000868662085412, "liquidityFee": 6.005211972512473} | 0 | 1672531501554 | 546.0052119725124 | Tetraspace | 1672237350590 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.1 | 1672237339965 | 1669908791169 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17269229861422716 | 9eeJYnR42f5f1SwoPCqh | {"NO": 151.33224873405527, "YES": 1587.861598216802} | 0 | will-manifold-implement-a-datetime | 2692.631902123033 | Will Manifold implement a date/time answer type in 2022? | 1672549140000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.01140618418089 | True | play | NO | public | 1651756785043 | Ben | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if Manifolds adds a new answer type that allows people to enter a date as a prediction, similar to Metaculus. (e.g. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/) Note: the new answer type d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.459089285043558, "platformFee": 0.3439915442220712, "liquidityFee": 2.063949265332427} | 0 | 1672678322581 | 242.06394926533244 | bcongdon | 1672346327623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557209}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 1672346327518 | 1656864651986 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.486443425789318 | HF05JBgMuIYZzY8Jzcqm | {"NO": 23.605492951269213, "YES": 518.4935375300481} | 0 | plastic-straws-should-be-banned | 430.97361050724464 | Plastic straws should be banned. | 1652199890343 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.746918495481293 | True | play | NO | public | 1651759082391 | Manifold | Trying a new format where instead of a question the title is a debate topic.
Plastic straw bans have been rolling out across countries over the past couple of years. A lot of people dislike this as the deem the inconvenience not worth the environmental impact. What do you think?
The way this will work is that you ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.197111776243438, "platformFee": 0.5328519627072396, "liquidityFee": 3.197111776243438} | 0 | 1652199890343 | 103.19711177624345 | Manifold | 1672586498289 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1663251832812}] | ["selfresolving"] | 0.5 | 1652137779700 | 1672586496607 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48283415075610403 | Ao5JzyZI2YcnWSpcv2xH | {"NO": 16.133313635838114, "YES": 967.7432699709157} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-have-250-dail | 1653.2816619729101 | Will Manifold markets have 250 Daily Active Users in May? | 1654055940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.278198421707814 | True | play | NO | public | 1651760343606 | Manifold | In our last team meeting we set a goal of hitting 300 daily active users by then end of May (or 200 if we don't end up doing much outreach). I'm going to split the difference and put 250 for this question.
This isn't an average, having 250 daily active users on any day will resolve the market with YES. You can find th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.9122986746753, "platformFee": 1.4853831124458834, "liquidityFee": 8.9122986746753} | 0 | 1654344046832 | 108.91229867467527 | Manifold | 1654043952344 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654043950827 | 1652802597026 | 0.015325833474271234 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7310416653599793 | h8r7yLKW2LRHpEyOe3td | {"NO": 1042.3333973913589, "YES": 968.7257559379668} | 0.7451954123710937 | will-manifold-markets-still-exist-i-e0d07cf732f6 | 285.97390587457653 | Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040? | 2209017600000 | C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59048137699724 | False | basic | public | 1651766004180 | phil | Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?
Exist means live web app with at least 1 active user. | BINARY | {"day": 7.771561172376096e-16, "week": 7.771561172376096e-16, "month": 7.771561172376096e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1043406039355013, "platformFee": 1.0812230012757573, "liquidityFee": 2.427741123191693} | 0 | 1000 | huot3000 | 1714633258396 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi7K_xxxU-sqQ94W8v3zvD5d5YajvbpLwDK5Aulvg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1682286146904}] | ["manifold-business-future"] | 0.5 | 1714633255121 | 1697236923801 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09953682251420855 | IZwFpoT7IRd2KXhXQXF4 | {"NO": 921.2243538346279, "YES": 1329.9103713916484} | 0.0711243682984731 | will-obergefell-v-hodges-be-complet | 2126.0445174672586 | Will Obergefell v Hodges be completely or substantially repealed before 2025? | 1735707600000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 10.240689533802016 | False | basic | public | 1651774760240 | Vincent Luczkow | BINARY | {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.901491955185589, "platformFee": 0.35754308133337137, "liquidityFee": 2.1452584880002283} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1704420754025 | 0.1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659503742498}] | ["lgbtqia"] | 0.11066533788908213 | 0.5 | 1704420753889 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n9LnJtMxGzxLqwHPlwRE | in-what-year-will-tesla-first-relea | 486.6795694310623 | In what year will Tesla first release an electric van or minivan? | 2051291460000 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651780463614 | Eli Tyre | The vehicle must be on the market and available for purchase, not just publicly announced.
See this related article: https://electrek.co/2021/01/29/tesla-electric-van-coming-batteries/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7616950356955525, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 600 | EliTyre | 1717721552682 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dc4eef4ce21b", "prob": 0.3817878076279062, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.06618367409573, "userId": "BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.73079997290859, "textFts": "", "contractId": "n9LnJtMxGzxLqwHPlwRE", "createdTime": 1651780463769, "probChanges": {"day": -0.712949242687... | 5 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "automotive"] | 1717721549508 | 1694847717579 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8882447760998113 | ng1oLsuJJ5aTOXHjJkTw | {"NO": 12.76218603009609, "YES": 109.06293172565853} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-to-the-a | 143.62200278453105 | This question will resolve to the answer least chosen. | 1652392740000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.673723942989227 | True | play | YES | public | 1651785152826 | Mr Stone | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0462916059361604, "platformFee": 0.17438193432269342, "liquidityFee": 1.0462916059361604} | 0 | 1652420639874 | 101.04629160593616 | stone | 1652392705489 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.93 | 1652392705290 | 1651854436421 | 0.48188240724280607 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n9fXsfRN9z6aKJhlX8wH | what-will-the-next-age-of-empires-i | 449 | What will the next Age of Empires III civilisation(s) be? | 1652399110485 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.720592261018193 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651795016325 | N.C. Young | I found this comprehensive-looking list: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2802319331
Resolves equally to every civilisation released next. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.999999999999999, "platformFee": 1.7499999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652399110485 | 400 | NcyRocks | 1652399138017 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fc956d4baea9", "prob": 0.049602928556902, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9569285569678055, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.334846844358854, "textFts": "", "contractId": "n9fXsfRN9z6aKJhlX8wH", "createdTime": 1651795016449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1673423571695}, {"name": "Strategy games", "slug": "strategy-games", "groupId": "a50583e9-06a2-431a-bdb7-8968af4a58b9", "createdTime": 1690962064217}] | ["gaming", "strategy-games"] | 1652398977130 | 1652399134834 | False | {"12994291d745": 50, "34e516052624": 50} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5394845497954869 | mC6TaDrLL7FVdRu6naK9 | {"NO": 1174.481514279416, "YES": 16.11606755657396} | 1 | will-keltham-successfully-identify | 1316.2726229779591 | Will Keltham successfully identify the conspiracy on day 90? | 1652911365583 | zyqSHXXfXFMQebN2IaAw3Eaaz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.439645114336215 | True | play | YES | public | 1651796492197 | QTesseract | This market resolves to yes if, during project lawful day 90, Keltham via his own effort determines that cheliax is running a conspiracy, and resolves to no if he does not. If he is informed by another prior to the end of the day, it resolves to N/A, unless done specifically on orders to preempt him realizing it indepe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.064118706516076, "platformFee": 1.5106864510860125, "liquidityFee": 9.064118706516076} | 0 | 1652911365583 | 109.06411870651608 | QTesseract | 1652854730004 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1652854728278 | 1651800569249 | 0.9884223439925975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8718959224318077 | ktrJqjdGnIuwYY3OL6JQ | {"NO": 6342.138838757901, "YES": 499.87193592629774} | 1 | will-any-of-the-following-be-unbann | 6720.541572951575 | Will any of the following be unbanned from Twitter within the next two years: Milo, Ricky Vaughn, TEN_GOP | 1701892526482 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0067906897193846195 | 1.4415063552254175 | True | play | YES | public | 1651796831126 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to yes if ANY of the following are unbanned from Twitter within the next two years. It resolves to no if none of them are unbanned.
See also David Glidden's markets | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10297112342437481, "platformFee": 0.0059788385087407355, "liquidityFee": 0.0358730310524444} | 0 | 1701892526482 | 800.0358730310525 | EnopoletusHarding | 1701892498550 | 1.1 | 42 | 0 | 34 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453243}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["technology-default", "internet"] | 0.1264642697705231 | 0.01 | 1701892498418 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3289213241420382 | BAPmJi75nvpv4Eupf8eB | {"NO": 80.41135832795945, "YES": 179.91830806392517} | 0 | will-at-least-15-websites-add-live | 147.9586295835397 | Will at least 15 web-sites add live link previews via link-summoner integration by June? | 1654066740000 | Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1154037690416736 | True | play | NO | public | 1651797524849 | Vlad Sitalo | Link summoner: https://github.com/Stvad/link-summoner
First planned integration - manifold docs: https://github.com/Stvad/link-summoner
How do I assess if this happened:
I'm not actually sure atm. Will proxy by npm installs, github issues, etc.
I expect that to be biased towards undercounting, so if you know of a ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.397047114184234, "platformFee": 0.39950785236403913, "liquidityFee": 2.397047114184234} | 0 | 1654626455920 | 102.39704711418422 | vlad | 1654284146154 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444914}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.33 | 1654050992535 | 1654284144621 | 0.17969499886529364 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.798354008584626 | mNo5tYVthWCGdIBkpKcl | {"NO": 72.31034044138157, "YES": 111.51135220241713} | 1 | will-this-weekends-smallpox-eradica | 40 | Will this weekend's Smallpox Eradication Day party yield at least one new tradition we plan to repeat next year? | 1651993140000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.262284607637802 | True | play | YES | public | 1651797910600 | Alicorn | New this year are cascarones, a water balloon stabbing game for the kids, and a virus shaped piñata. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0973477206374151, "platformFee": 0.18289128677290253, "liquidityFee": 1.0973477206374151} | 0 | 1652149747252 | 101.09734772063742 | Alicorn | 1651956084457 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670521496352}] | ["valinor"] | 0.8 | 1651956084268 | 0.7196808789233513 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7547600210977033 | Gi2K8IvwxwJCixo5MuKn | {"NO": 211.5743219254748, "YES": 103.64228885629285} | 1 | will-i-stick-with-assigning-probabi | 1336.5386831140322 | Will I stick with assigning probabilities to work stuff for 3 weeks? | 1653537540000 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2669440543563764 | True | play | YES | public | 1651799820899 | @misha | I always felt uneasy about commitment devices and had mixed success with them. I am experimenting with reframing them as "strong suggestions" that I expect to happen with a certain probability. Then if I want something actually to happen, I can think if I can drive my chances closer to 100% (pre-mortems are great).
As... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.665229151120846, "platformFee": 1.9442048585201412, "liquidityFee": 11.665229151120846} | 0 | 1653590976585 | 111.66522915112085 | misha | 1653445052079 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1653445050594 | 1652910153521 | 0.8626875406426829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5015041329908154 | fM8gCt7e3Ohtbb2v3vdw | {"NO": 1015.0847467309493, "YES": 10.413171617127205} | 1 | will-the-number-of-unicorn-companie | 1358.7240096213618 | Will the number of unicorn companies grow from now to the end of the year? | 1672551676372 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.692982720098246 | True | play | YES | public | 1651801079087 | Jack | Resolution: At the end of 2022, I will check the most recently published count of unicorn companies on https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies. Resolves YES if it is greater than the current value of 1100 and NO otherwise. Resolves N/A if this data source is no longer updated or usable.
Background:
Acco... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.053211388541308, "platformFee": 0.17553523142355132, "liquidityFee": 1.053211388541308} | 0 | 1672551676372 | 101.0532113885413 | jack | 1672551517967 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572970}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672551457196 | 1672551516443 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014900735653162916 | 2QBndfx2LJQsNx6piJF0 | {"NO": 119.99999976092175, "YES": 4.317903515449472e-06} | 1 | daily-market-1c3796becc7e | 20 | Daily Market | 1651801167795 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.558822637213737 | True | play | YES | public | 1651801146152 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4344694933221545e-06, "platformFee": 2.390782488870258e-07, "liquidityFee": 1.4344694933221545e-06} | 0 | 1651801167795 | 100.0000014344695 | Jenny | 1651801161992 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651801160542 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8791414738477847 | IwTChtnkazNEcDwS30Ev | {"NO": 386.2500618313682, "YES": 510.11034185942674} | 1 | will-sinclair-and-rachel-decide-to | 257 | Will Sinclair and Rachel decide to move in together? | 1653191940000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7430658092223252 | True | play | YES | public | 1651801652853 | Sinclair Chen | After my Bahamas trip is over, @noumena and I will be living together for a week in New York in order to determine whether we're compatible enough to share a room. Details:
- Regardless of the outcome, we've committed to at least being housemates in https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1 fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.516670980939518, "platformFee": 0.5861118301565864, "liquidityFee": 3.516670980939518} | 0 | 1653586906409 | 503.5166709809395 | Sinclair | 1653897029648 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1653110617258 | 1653897027394 | 0.8463405599733259 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
odeamJPAwoL3HxfuN5Mo | what-will-manifold-markets-new-mana | 19739.777687287824 | What will Manifold Markets' new Mana currency sign be in a month? | 1654487940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.618702767035711 | True | basic | 4b35bac7e9c7 | public | 1651802699649 | Manifold | We're looking to improve the look of M$XXX for the platform. What will it look like in a month?
May 5, 10:13pm: Feel free to link cool sketches of symbols! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 116.43369674188939, "platformFee": 29.108424185472348, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654528599378 | 3679.999999999998 | Manifold | 1654485700533 | 0 | 87 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b7b353d9a977", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004666531802313053, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.328599369354214, "textFts": "", "contractId": "odeamJPAwoL3HxfuN5Mo", "createdTime": 1651802699715, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}... | 1 | 1654485700360 | 1653836215080 | {"4b35bac7e9c7": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6435230325670587 | bCq8cCBFbIk5wO0UDNz0 | {"NO": 313.700625407397, "YES": 78.3946200370301} | 1 | will-the-democratic-party-win-the-i | 399.89203880926254 | Will the Democratic Party win the IL-13 House election? | 1667883540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7365625685437935 | True | play | YES | public | 1651803284474 | Bolton Bailey | Resolves Yes if a Democratic candidate wins this seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2714553739512136, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447} | 0 | 1668325938297 | 140.4918032786885 | BoltonBailey | 1667879947062 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495170}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458211}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCU... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1667879945634 | 1656638599143 | False | 0.878400736300407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | zz0GnS65lwWeacKyb09E | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | whats-the-frequency-kenneth-is-your | 13 | Whats the frequency Kenneth is your benzadrine aha? 🎶🎵🎤 | 1651808174889 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1651807303551 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1651808174889 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1651807326455 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651807322832 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8590140497806275 | VbRal1W0goKGAJVKfDsO | {"NO": 4019.8363005298593, "YES": 234.47244058934535} | 1 | will-donald-trump-run-for-president | 5473.876578434354 | Will Donald Trump run for President in 2024? | 1668565419880 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5481216887371683 | True | play | YES | public | 1651811253041 | N.C. Young |
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.558441914085924, "platformFee": 0.6713339318234363, "liquidityFee": 4.028003590940616} | 0 | 1668565419880 | 424.0280035909406 | NcyRocks | 1668563566572 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489936}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581366}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "group... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.75 | 1668563566478 | 1668563214383 | False | 0.933412187741066 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.254063952105502 | 74dSBso2vUxsTsY2BLKZ | {"NO": 73.4665050499883, "YES": 333.04361266540616} | 0 | will-js-test-positive-for-covid | 369 | Will JS test positive for COVID? | 1652425140000 | IxZAIjtFXybjyDJ8O1lCdsvslts1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7336422979431854 | True | play | NO | public | 1651812090638 | Patrick Brinich-Langlois | JS tests positive for COVID at least once (any type of test counts). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9720240657376875, "platformFee": 0.6620040109562813, "liquidityFee": 3.9720240657376875} | 0 | 1652499950462 | 103.97202406573768 | patbl | 1652044319570 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggqv6I59c4ysUpbPgmzM3vLpcIjhqqPrzyV-e0Rqek=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1652044319341 | 0.06988236647993565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024648780385808564 | xwbPnmaAHlcXz5ADtNGw | {"NO": 200.99026594747357, "YES": -7.105427357601002e-14} | 1 | test-4 | 101 | test 4 | 1651812932262 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1651812600530 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.058404315158161385, "platformFee": 0.009734052526360231, "liquidityFee": 0.058404315158161385} | 0 | 1651812932262 | 100.05840431515816 | Electricitypipe | 1651812724629 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651812720932 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5014241373772886 | Vy8C28vLDGgLUh9zdYAp | {"NO": 110.4878011083275, "YES": 98.86658461453034} | 0 | will-i-wake-up-on-time-tomorrow | 90 | Will I wake up on time tomorrow? | 1651847400000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6871022346853235 | True | play | NO | public | 1651818516518 | tenadome | This resolves YES if I comment in this market at some point between 9:30 and 9:40 AM CDT on 05/06/2022.
It's 1:24 AM CDT right now. 9:30 is pretty reasonable, but my sleep schedule has been a bit off for the past few days. (woke up at 11:30 AM today, 10-10:30 for previous days I think). However, I woke up at 7-8 AM fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.24941601294613, "platformFee": 0.37490266882435497, "liquidityFee": 2.24941601294613} | 0 | 1651855937081 | 102.24941601294613 | nmehndir | 1651863532092 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1651842389877 | 1651863529851 | 0.5291744161282365 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08051256559431363 | Xwqq7ruHRCqCRYMY3Taa | {"NO": 221.99395743064724, "YES": 9353.059370239505} | 0 | will-scotus-judges-have-term-limits | 9691.623925142349 | Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2023-05-13? | 1684026870255 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.736031948732051 | True | play | NO | public | 1651841159118 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if SCOTUS judges have term limits, whether imposed by Congress or self-imposed. This includes any sort of time limit, age limit, case limit, session limit, etc. It includes limits that only apply to future judges.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6141442092823173, "platformFee": 0.16131845293769914, "liquidityFee": 0.9679107176261948} | 0 | 1684026870255 | 340.9679107176262 | MartinRandall | 1684026671376 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492031}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560873517}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userI... | ["politics-default", "us-legislation", "scotus"] | 0.25 | 1684026671221 | 1670444738959 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3046576549142119 | num6bXZKuUGs0u1ATj2X | {"NO": 875.8758525001701, "YES": 0.40753850922094637} | 1 | will-i-meet-sbf-ftx-ceo-whilst-at-e | 1731.8922378835523 | Will I meet SBF (FTX Ceo) whilst at EA? | 1651895872562 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.365310594347262 | True | play | YES | public | 1651841177250 | David Chee | I'm here for one more week. The office we work at is 10mins walk from the main FTX office. We will also be going to the FTX office for our hackathon today.
The main reason I want to meet him is because he recently acquired Storybook Brawl and has ~800 hours played on it himself. I used to be the biggest content creato... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3914576976668986, "platformFee": 0.2319096162778164, "liquidityFee": 1.3914576976668986} | 0 | 1651895872562 | 101.3914576976669 | SirSalty | 1651895900621 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1651887999140 | 1651895897775 | 0.9989391555248145 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 42kRK3BdfoYqtU6PHeKP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | if-stephen-breyer-does-not-retire-i | 0 | If Stephen Breyer does not retire in 2022, will his replacement be a conservative judge? | 1651843938394 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1651843538708 | Tetra | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651843938394 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1651843538708 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49009948144126336 | EFbJqe7ryDR5xLmCt5m5 | {"NO": 11.585308289918999, "YES": 1153.0179397563631} | 0 | will-vanguards-total-stock-market-i | 1291.9344877418341 | Will Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) close higher on any day in the rest of 2022 than its 1/3/2022 closing price? | 1672473540000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.784730592325099 | True | play | NO | public | 1651843670663 | Ben | Resolves YES if Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) has a closing price on any day in the rest of 2022 of greater than $242.97 (the closing price on 1/3/2022).
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/history?p=VTI
Small print: (1) I'll use the "Close" price column from the linked data source -- *no... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.3325198949417505, "platformFee": 0.8733128674301291, "liquidityFee": 5.239877204580773} | 0 | 1672678603253 | 105.23987720458076 | bcongdon | 1671726997736 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 | 1671726997577 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9235843331793544 | sUcBZpcvxfPs6PqtLpzh | {"NO": 431.0581649906172, "YES": 127.8264591653125} | 1 | will-xi-jinping-be-general-secretar | 1258.8216396074552 | Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party by the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.718523714805361 | True | play | YES | public | 1651848733636 | Donald | This market will resolve "YES" if Xi Jinping is still General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party by end of December 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.740842524668559, "platformFee": 0.17574480304177328, "liquidityFee": 1.0544688182506397} | 0 | 1672564556035 | 141.05446881825065 | Donald | 1669856904920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507928}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561456}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "... | ["china", "politics-default", "global-macro", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"] | 0.9 | 1669856904731 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vDZ6LqN3ZZGkGsndEPVY | how-will-i-resolve-this-question | 101 | how will I resolve this question? | 1651851885444 | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.01564734330884 | True | play | b102e4c37d3a | public | 1651851819542 | Adam | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1651851885444 | 240 | Adam | 1651851880152 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5a6e8ed74b8a", "prob": 0.9802960494069209, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.35542839821462, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6704441108041119, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vDZ6LqN3ZZGkGsndEPVY", "createdTime": 1651851819631, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1651851878731 | {"b102e4c37d3a": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jOBaapnLQQ2Qxx1eRk5G | how-many-us-supreme-court-justices | 1892.8646985018245 | How many US Supreme Court justices will there be in 2025? | 1767254399000 | 8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1651855951658 | Adele Lopez | I'll resolve according to the number of current justices listed at resolution time on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7152066718575691, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adele | 1719957784945 | 1.1 | 26 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b03f63f53cf1", "prob": 0.030056122821583986, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.4495476961924805, "userId": "8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 79.04957681608175, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jOBaapnLQQ2Qxx1eRk5G", "createdTime": 1651855951813, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0119111737... | 19 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428506}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501675}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL... | ["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"] | 0.12153549799343988 | 1719957781774 | 1653353816399 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500121272864049 | 3kLEjLIq5UO64pwLKlAs | {"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770496} | 1 | test-bf15c3beec19 | 10 | test | 1651859019509 | 6bZw8YwItRdzPppHP3YAh1Wvwrt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.765773451990329 | True | play | YES | public | 1651858988404 | Rahul Swaminathan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1651859019509 | 100.27149321266968 | RahulSwaminathan | 1651859002048 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhvPHRKVrwpdNnZG8HmB98m4BfxqOyZREBfNOeh0oBFNF_W816OgereQPuyMUNK8qpn5NyW78AeQdxzFOgUtx5XVdKHoopXrxKQmVlmphET5xpJJ3mQzCs2CTikKRAMsYby-E_JsCIJY22XJt1gJxxymqHms6TiGgtrgSElj7t27hoe8UUrFIB7FJMqyrDZMcpRcotn7I-A2B0Qlrw0Koy3xagqS3_t1jcELVQnpf3Kikq0FOL-Xe9_2XcRcxei2a0Iej4SBKSKpyYZs0uyG3s... | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651858998236 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4944502376351094 | 3KHwvm9Zq1KMIZOV9Tyi | {"NO": 16.2554221607964, "YES": 688.9010528205154} | 0 | what-percentage-of-the-10-largest-s | 655.875624000933 | What percentage of the 10 largest startups will file for IPO in 2022? | 1672559940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.247000718574535 | True | play | NO | public | 1651859873228 | Jack | What percentage of the top 10 private companies by valuation on https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies will file to go public (e.g. file S-1, file for a SPAC merger, etc.) by the end of 2022? This market resolves PROB to this percentage.
The list as of today is:
Bytedance
SpaceX
SHEIN
Stripe
Klarna
Canv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.514287443421396, "platformFee": 0.30478863623410385, "liquidityFee": 1.828731817404623} | 0 | 1673016386197 | 101.82873181740463 | jack | 1672552122191 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564001}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1691181955991}] | ["economics-default", "startups"] | 0.5 | 1672552038148 | 1672552119584 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.511445075624941 | 7dQ10N8GwiXyI865yRQW | {"NO": 113.38420332357009, "YES": 113.38420332357055} | 0 | will-i-find-more-than-10-eggs-in-th | 8272.233012478548 | Will I find more than 10 eggs in the basket? | 1651869473938 | VnLLG4nkIZb38IbTOO9lCNJMeL62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.530574842511683 | True | play | NO | public | 1651867215959 | Jake Ward | This market resolves 'YES' if I find 11 or more eggs in the basket. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.8487205377095, "platformFee": 1.6414534229515831, "liquidityFee": 9.8487205377095} | 0 | 1651869473938 | 109.84872053770951 | JakeWard | 1651867417686 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzHytEN1JqZ9MoDm6mFtJN2coJN5OKLyE0Ukd1Y=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651867417547 | 0.51144507562494 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48458958810870756 | Im5MoB0gNH61oXsctcCh | {"NO": 17.535772092454224, "YES": 700.5537887619926} | 0 | will-doctor-strange-2-make-it-into | 601 | Will Doctor Strange 2 make it into the top 5 highest grossing openings of all time? | 1652500740000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.184888324887949 | True | play | NO | public | 1651868772364 | Manifold | Answer will resolve if Doctor Strange 2, which released today, makes it onto top 5 of this list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_openings_for_films. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.677267428045184, "platformFee": 0.4462112380075307, "liquidityFee": 2.677267428045184} | 0 | 1654343901133 | 102.67726742804518 | Manifold | 1654343940176 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1652485327074 | 1654343938717 | 0.02299332760199687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.505335309747698 | Mwba8gbvnu1QhGmQemLC | {"NO": 6.653141192139515, "YES": 1600.7931352248033} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-2x-its-follow | 1675.773443037955 | Will Manifold Markets 2x its followers to 300 by the end of June? | 1656647940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.3218811062285845 | True | play | NO | public | 1651869301923 | Manifold | Be sure to follow if you haven't yet! Will be posting newsletters, memes, fun pictures of the team being silly and highlighting new features! https://twitter.com/ManifoldMarkets
May 7, 9:40am: just to note, upon the creation of this market we had exactly 150 followers. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.035362204811839, "platformFee": 0.5224994724381131, "liquidityFee": 3.1349968346286787} | 0 | 1661147775409 | 103.13499683462867 | Manifold | 1661147774973 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1656647731642 | 1661147770159 | 0.004227856456910921 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4199156649800353 | RNpaMZq8DDU55VpbZ6sh | {"NO": 193.11881261659207, "YES": 270.06097219131027} | 0.34108524217183106 | will-severance-season-2-have-a-rott | 319.62287401700485 | Will Severance Season 2 have a Rotten Tomatoes critic score > 95%? | 1715032740000 | wP8OaJcVKPRnpZQH9HUH2d7NQoX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1651872168003 | jdoppler | May 6, 11:22pm: I'll resolve to N/A if the second season is not out by the end date.
May 7, 9:55pm: Season 1 Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/severance/s01 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.532499674048423, "platformFee": 0.6205196743646288, "liquidityFee": 2.294375999620553} | 0 | 222.29437599962057 | jdoppler | 1715028747869 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyd-r_dPv50_v8l0CMfar_IleKaX2JhcopqsUbR=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 8 | 7 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860929463}, {"name": "Rotten Tomatoes", "slug": "rotten-tomatoes", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "nahn9VyDnTHLHoCaYWlD", "createdTime":... | ["media-rating-futures", "rotten-tomatoes"] | 0.5 | 1715028744663 | 1702129486887 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6420677829874667 | He6LS92t1hSMNgfV4Zlj | {"NO": 199.84002399404056, "YES": 70.0317961154539} | 0 | will-charles-oliveira-be-able-to-re | 100 | Will Charles Oliveira be able to retain his lightweight belt at UFC 274? | 1651975200000 | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1101381072425553 | True | play | NO | public | 1651874939731 | Supreme Carrot | Resolves YES if Charles Oliveira da Silva is a Brazilian professional mixed martial artist and Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner is declared the winner of his fight against Justin Gaethje at UFC 274 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9598560357567543, "platformFee": 0.15997600595945904, "liquidityFee": 0.9598560357567543} | 0 | 1652035016759 | 100.95985603575676 | Carrotcake | 1651875014203 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.64 | 1651875013958 | 0.8365689897754721 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8884924475256687 | OtKbGYaqOYSyAcYYuKPA | {"NO": 1259.6084713708788, "YES": 350.07728360445765} | 1 | in-mad-investor-chaos-is-day-90-rea | 860 | In Mad Investor Chaos, is day 90 real? | 1652857140000 | G4sbUQlBQqVxfrTrCB8blRODlZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3393320974537217 | True | play | YES | public | 1651877373002 | Optimization Process | This market resolves to "NO" if, by May 18, it's revealed that the "Keltham" posts on Day 90, since [this post](https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1804944#reply-1804944), don't actually reflect real-Keltham's thoughts (or, more roughly stated, if this is a misdirect like the three earlier Keltham-escaping threads (Rovagug... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.349171774727764, "platformFee": 0.39152862912129394, "liquidityFee": 2.349171774727764} | 0 | 1652882510568 | 402.34917177472784 | OptimizationProcess | 1652634617580 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.85 | 1652634616259 | 0.9662954273491025 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | aIBqWSIs8DvQ14eVUfw7 | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | -c19dffdc3887 | 13 | 🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄 | 1651883031527 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1651882900385 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1651883031527 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1651883025863 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651883024603 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5146185844071091 | 83IChzcG13QkrUF7l72K | {"NO": 28.69578997603663, "YES": 430.46357161697995} | 0 | will-pear-get-us-a-decision-prior-t | 1828.0690823572704 | Will Pear get us a decision prior to May 31st 11:59PM PST? | 1654059540000 | rcZfrkafZ6VFf233dh416GfV9023 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3465018900695647 | True | play | NO | public | 1651884979453 | Daniel Chang | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.379049108804741, "platformFee": 1.3965081848007903, "liquidityFee": 8.379049108804741} | 0 | 1654063576444 | 108.37904910880472 | DanielChang | 1654033265290 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwnG93b7--KAcY1DdjiSJ4Q_-ePTDalO3LAT5rC=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654033263721 | 0.06601235599129948 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6279920529056358 | UqrT4AahIvXNH9vL01Cb | {"NO": 961.5003366412404, "YES": 33.10960886984134} | 1 | will-the-pear-conversation-on-monda | 3055.9381402459044 | Will the Pear conversation on Monday be mostly about technical topics? | 1652136159742 | rcZfrkafZ6VFf233dh416GfV9023 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8976622267812693 | True | play | YES | public | 1651885180474 | Daniel Chang | Yes if they ask us more than 2 questions for engineering, data or implementation.
May 7, 1:39am: Revision: if >=50% of the conversation is about engineering, data or implementation. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.69758461452545, "platformFee": 1.9495974357542418, "liquidityFee": 11.69758461452545} | 0 | 1652136159742 | 111.69758461452545 | DanielChang | 1652135165379 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwnG93b7--KAcY1DdjiSJ4Q_-ePTDalO3LAT5rC=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.65 | 1652135161371 | 0.3138596510357822 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2698727267547878 | tNgGYD1WkCtNfbwPcz3s | {"NO": 53.93372540974099, "YES": 778.1887688286719} | 0 | will-i-enter-the-leaderboard-by-the | 789.4940326882966 | Will I enter the leaderboard by the end of the year? | 1672549140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.030939289660936 | True | play | NO | public | 1651887023884 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if I appear on either of the leaderboards at any time before the year is over. It resolves to No if I do not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.125390187760232, "platformFee": 0.3542316979600387, "liquidityFee": 2.125390187760232} | 0 | 1673037868869 | 142.12539018776022 | EnopoletusHarding | 1671147301288 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.5 | 1671147301003 | 1651936625335 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73p567m0z3JFM7LjWkng | what-should-nonlinear-name-their-ne | 414.4705356203409 | What should Nonlinear name their new Fund? 🤔 | 1652500740000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.739556786619049 | True | play | d907a8ea67c9 | public | 1651888606240 | Manifold | Our Effective Altruism (EA) friends at Nonlinear are creating a fund that provides free/subsidized services that increase the productivity of high impact EAs 🚀
They are trying to decide what to name the fund and thought you guys could help!
There are a lot of potential services and products that could be provided, s... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.301178575186364, "platformFee": 2.075294643796591, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656186874289 | 480 | Manifold | 1656186892392 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "edca4edd7816", "prob": 0.07042194238507175, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.550633115507019, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.46854248501897, "textFts": "", "contractId": "73p567m0z3JFM7LjWkng", "createdTime": 1651888606393, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | [{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904797}] | ["naming-suggestions"] | 1652327904838 | 1656186900317 | {"d907a8ea67c9": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2716699493660058 | KG1FV9BuCTwMjuQmSLUX | {"NO": 967.0949065673357, "YES": 1067.3568066322396} | 0.25259677964654537 | will-roe-v-wade-be-federally-codifi | 262.28156395939845 | Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified by 2032-05-06? | 1967508600000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.584686123309837 | False | basic | public | 1651889580475 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if U.S. Congress passes a law or laws widely considered to restore all or almost all of the rights to abortion that were present under Roe v Wade. What is considered \"all or almost all\" is up to my judgement, but feel free to ask ... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.021224672595246, "platformFee": 0.3302938964685146, "liquidityFee": 1.9817633788110869} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1702517168917 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481604}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659561000750}] | ["politics-default", "us-legislation"] | 0.46 | 1702517168789 | 1659561055595 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | 9fx4jTodEp7YNPdu5Ugq | {"NO": 109.99928672359447, "YES": 0.016608441545895268} | 1 | daily-market-4989fe9d7938 | 10 | Daily Market | 1651894409195 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613774076056245 | True | play | YES | public | 1651894371347 | Jenny | This is not fun :( | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1651894409195 | 100.00427965843322 | Jenny | 1651894403881 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651894402535 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27336734762668546 | jgloqyJ0Q6fd3O74PMxW | {"NO": 290.1565698976771, "YES": 6.0669381285899995} | 1 | is-there-already-a-way-im-missing-t | 249.56796229136165 | Is there already a way I'm missing to find closed unresolved markets in one's portfolio? | 1651942604843 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.020896281526252 | True | play | YES | public | 1651900198400 | Alicorn | I can't find them! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6528068657674206, "platformFee": 0.2754678109612368, "liquidityFee": 1.6528068657674206} | 0 | 1651942604843 | 101.65280686576743 | Alicorn | 1651935432890 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 1651926157274 | 1651935432218 | 0.9473479887405527 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8506126878412719 | CPXpgU5Vn0ThMt4E6AyP | {"NO": 67.3019571323495, "YES": 232.42882278271898} | 1 | will-i-be-satisfied-with-how-i-spen | 797.9416841152563 | Will I be satisfied with how I spend my time on Saturday, May 7th? | 1651975200000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4659311319112 | True | play | YES | public | 1651904208037 | tenadome | This resolves YES if I achieve the following by 9:00 PM CDT tomorrow.
1. Track all of my activities throughout the day on Toggl.
2. Spend at least 180 minutes on things that I strongly endorse (not including exercise). This is subjective and my definitions are inconsistent, but these tasks are usually either cognitivel... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.277155631313557, "platformFee": 0.8795259385522595, "liquidityFee": 5.277155631313557} | 0 | 1651975817046 | 205.27715563131355 | nmehndir | 1651962844621 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.99 | 1651962843219 | 1651956863467 | 0.6224639919313446 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024914093731231088 | Kd3Y9h5ljtjvvCAogTVV | {"NO": 169.99996932061742, "YES": 1.0946799022804043e-13} | 1 | test-5 | 70 | test 5 | 1651906772824 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.309946028584779 | True | play | YES | public | 1651906673642 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0001840762953438224, "platformFee": 3.067938255730374e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0001840762953438224} | 0 | 1651906772824 | 100.00018407629534 | Electricitypipe | 1651906763729 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651906763515 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5249881745189808 | Fyx0j0ni1PjyAGwEGv2c | {"NO": 898.9490095055886, "YES": 1087.966036654714} | 0.47731487004809997 | will-bitcoin-have-underperformed-th | 729.1847394066166 | Will Bitcoin have underperformed the S&P 500 from May 2022 to May 2032? | 1967428740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61977074348673 | False | basic | public | 1651922795027 | David Glidden | Resolves as to whether AG123 wins his 10-year bet with @UnwittingOtter: https://twitter.com/ag123321ga/status/1522797688038715392 | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.023906434852166425} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.824430332526493, "platformFee": 0.24899034332991402, "liquidityFee": 1.4939420599794841} | 0 | 1000 | dglid | 1717794149548 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 21 | 0.10367271727668191 | 0.5 | 1717794146430 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24274962458917737 | fzbsgHj3YIrSOkqMOqVj | {"NO": 45.153975597908136, "YES": 2642.004380398456} | 0 | will-the-us-foreign-dredge-act-be-r | 2705.7514627029013 | Will the US Foreign Dredge Act be repealed or reformed by 2023-05-15 | 1684123140000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.859435910877571 | True | play | NO | public | 1651923129798 | Martin Randall | Looking for outright repeal or real reform. I may resolve to 50% if there are token changes that don't solve the problem. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.266248546147338, "platformFee": 0.37770809102455627, "liquidityFee": 2.266248546147338} | 0 | 1684149474495 | 202.26624854614732 | MartinRandall | 1684149708372 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498588}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.74 | 1684083514288 | 1684149705877 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23601005426493268 | BEyUQpft5TegHsendz7Q | {"NO": 124.75884410526487, "YES": 1786.3319956897403} | 0 | will-twitter-increase-the-character | 1645.8277360626562 | Will Twitter increase the character limit to 420 by 31 December 2023? | 1704024000000 | bBilVgGF9cYVJn8tOsP3uZOMTL43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.565450447434806 | True | play | NO | public | 1651928185688 | Donal Hunt | This market resolves to YES if twitter increases the tweet character limit to 420 anytime before 31 December 2023 12:00 UTC (midday). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.673822171951139, "platformFee": 0.4456370286585231, "liquidityFee": 2.673822171951139} | 0 | 1704143214940 | 262.67382217195114 | DonalHunt | 1710451913161 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhuAwuKEbH5tzhiyAcUCS7sx8fd2vFnTn3aNTv4I6Q=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1704000180532 | 1667261234958 | 0.02 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2703169050611829 | uimvtjsqMytnreyHaP9M | {"NO": 306.48658720463, "YES": 1994.6197779378606} | 0 | will-there-be-a-us-recession-before | 6273.303102356627 | Will there be a US recession before the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1116553158995959 | True | play | NO | public | 1651931685790 | Donald | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve \"YES\" if at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 18, 6:14pm: ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.370667269530145, "platformFee": 2.3998666605535712, "liquidityFee": 14.399199963321433} | 0 | 1672564761879 | 600.0046685802454 | Donald | 1672477884630 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 64 | 0 | 1 | 61 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016805305}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577100}] | ["economics-default", "global-macro"] | 0.5 | 1672477883483 | 1671593365378 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o3sZkVPyomrUQ3lGRMJ0 | what-daily-community-game-will-we-a | 1694.588379846949 | What daily community game will we add to our website? | 1684123140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.657683333669407 | True | play | 5de978effbe3 | public | 1651934391067 | Manifold | We are looking to experiment with adding a fun game that utilising prediction markets. What game are we most likely to add?
Close date updated to 2023-05-14 10:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3570294867677535, "platformFee": 0.33925737169193837, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697109526330 | 1600.0000000000005 | Manifold | 1683622883694 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5fab3092aeab", "prob": 0.007569180001097548, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04035780305801642, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.291501533377958, "textFts": "", "contractId": "o3sZkVPyomrUQ3lGRMJ0", "createdTime": 1651934391323, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 31 | 35 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411771}] | ["gaming"] | 1683622883494 | 1682995596748 | {"5de978effbe3": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3808635059730402 | irr5Y3BOZrCtIisUPgEA | {"NO": 32.31084405291102, "YES": 655.0229443802327} | 0 | will-seattle-wa-have-5-or-more-days | 776.1242373644021 | Will Seattle, WA have 5 or more days of bad air quality in the summer of 2022? | 1664607540000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9309377225182422 | True | play | NO | public | 1651934617055 | Ben | This market resolves YES if Seattle has five or more days of >=100 PM2.5 air quality between 5/7/2022 and 9/30/2022. The days do not need to be consecutive. For reference, this criteria would have resolved YES in 2017, 2018, and 2020, and NO in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2021.
Data source: https://aqicn.org/city/usa/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6028694232777134, "platformFee": 0.13747028390996904, "liquidityFee": 0.824821703459814} | 0 | 1664624316198 | 100.8248217034598 | bcongdon | 1664587966131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Seattle", "slug": "seattle", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "6PG7rSSarK58uc0JM6oW", "createdTime": 1663335847617}] | ["seattle"] | 0.38 | 1664587966040 | 1662832580750 | 0.029450484557651754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2BFMyfHKnhToego5bJdT | how-many-approved-therapies-will-th | 1877.921076048835 | How many approved therapies will the FDA's cell & gene therapy list at the end of 2023? | 1704166029089 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.641667286774192 | True | play | 00eaab6289c5 | public | 1651940123364 | Stephen Malina | The FDA currently maintains a page tracking approved cell & gene therapy (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products/approved-cellular-and-gene-therapy-products) that they seem to update relatively frequently. This question will resolve on 01/01/2024 to the number of therapies listed on... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704166029089 | 480.00000000000006 | StephenMalina | 1704166057505 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "186ba19140e8", "prob": 0.0028964876801880076, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.013182825040183659, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.538131213115152, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2BFMyfHKnhToego5bJdT", "resolverId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "createdTime": 1... | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529521953}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1664720052638}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-yea... | ["science-default", "biotech", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1704153130413 | 1704166056899 | {"00eaab6289c5": 100} | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48189872512864723 | 92KydlqMbWg7LVae5nse | {"NO": 13.367675312231896, "YES": 970.6528862920674} | 0 | will-black-team-defeat-camo-team-in | 898.8101401406836 | Will black team defeat camo team in EA Bahamas paintball battle | 1651953943515 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.62545352097684 | True | play | NO | public | 1651948404260 | James | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.221841403494564, "platformFee": 0.5369735672490938, "liquidityFee": 3.221841403494564} | 0 | 1651953943515 | 103.22184140349454 | JamesGrugett | 1651953616661 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1651953615205 | 0.012647517155730936 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.502860671187687 | O8V7Yzepw5oF0VudWU1L | {"NO": 1117.3598390253399, "YES": 20.529319666703877} | 1 | will-manifold-have-builtin-support | 1842.4725547114251 | Will Manifold have built-in support for range/numeric markets by the end of May? | 1652987264564 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7309048640447178 | True | play | YES | public | 1651950144746 | Tetra | Resolves YES if there are range markets that aren't put togethre manually by the close time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.31236756844414, "platformFee": 3.5520612614073572, "liquidityFee": 21.31236756844414} | 0 | 1652987264564 | 121.31236756844415 | Tetraspace | 1652987182241 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3 | 1652987153883 | 1652987178421 | 0.9821600264898643 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8500000000000003 | V0MQeVvbfPqFWGT8gH7z | {"NO": 1100, "YES": 65.49751458608989} | 1 | coalition-avenir-quebec-caq-wins-th | 1000 | Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) Wins the 2022 Quebec Election. | 1664895210812 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.281992862049616 | True | play | YES | public | 1651955623377 | Michael Wheatley | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664895210812 | 99.99999999999999 | MichaelWheatley | 1664895201012 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.85 | 1664895200835 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6914469304045304 | hf7jcc7s20CFKVaX0YJF | {"NO": 3.606559722038936, "YES": 843.9056039474375} | 0 | will-elon-musk-own-more-than-51-of | 1087.5105143570338 | Will Elon Musk own more than 51% of Twitter before August 1st? | 1659121200000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.219197984129279 | True | play | NO | public | 1651964235059 | Jacob | This market resolves to YES if Elon Musk's buyout of Twitter progresses to owning a controlling share by August 1st. The market will not resolve to NO before September unless there is an unambiguous public statement from both sides stating that the deal has been cancelled or an unambiguous public statement or filing in... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.495984196434332, "platformFee": 0.6000455852532357, "liquidityFee": 3.6002735115194135} | 0 | 1661189392926 | 153.60027351151942 | JiSK | 1710451941121 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.7 | 1659085309660 | 1661189454789 | False | 0.009486124121533553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4575366665637138 | 9kkgC9pJQMFixWUBFvKl | {"NO": 781.13681548762, "YES": 11.078901997285} | 1 | do-i-have-covid | 2180.906524730952 | Do I have covid? | 1652327940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.512785603531082 | True | play | YES | public | 1651965575536 | Austin | Or will I test positive in the next 3 days?
I've taken two rapid antigen tests administered by the OPH hotel staff, ~3 days ago and today; both came up negative. I've been having a slight cough and fever/tiredness. About to take another rapid test myself.
Might just be some other non-COVID sickness, or might all be i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.204642408119993, "platformFee": 1.7007737346866652, "liquidityFee": 10.204642408119993} | 0 | 1652332273374 | 110.20464240812 | Austin | 1652332314972 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1652316128355 | 1652332313122 | 0.9834624233827052 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qeRi8CU8Bsh7ODz36GVn | what-percentage-of-house-seats-will | 289.9797699689426 | What percentage of House seats will each party have following the 2022 Australian federal election? | 1653047940000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.816179658201072 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651967432860 | N.C. Young | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.680809201242294, "platformFee": 1.1702023003105735, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654214971978 | 380 | NcyRocks | 1653010042840 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4469bad8317a", "prob": 0.19926247592252752, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.946140251943513, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.95012137747505, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qeRi8CU8Bsh7ODz36GVn", "createdTime": 1651967432951, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506616}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112329}] | ["politics-default", "australia"] | 1653010041053 | {"230deaf98142": 9.933774834437086, "25f00df8077d": 6.622516556291391, "5826740b30ca": 50.99337748344371, "7a3d69bc313b": 28.47682119205298, "81d5ab8048f4": 2.6490066225165565, "f5955b594be9": 1.3245033112582782} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | Q1QAC43cEq9PRCqj5rbo | {"NO": 109.99928672359447, "YES": 0.016608441545895268} | 1 | daily-market-23eea931ccbe | 10 | Daily Market | 1651968111145 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613774076056245 | True | play | YES | public | 1651968099003 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1651968111145 | 100.00427965843322 | Jenny | 1651968106631 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651968105104 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.014156908460050124 | bUcuF9F1kEMU0WmpLtrm | {"NO": 113.9999717388117, "YES": 0.0005717067167217937} | 1 | will-the-thingy-do-the-other-thing | 14 | Will the thingy do the other thing that the thing did? | 1651969900947 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57893425338485 | True | play | YES | public | 1651969873382 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00016956712977850063, "platformFee": 2.8261188296416775e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00016956712977850063} | 0 | 1651969900947 | 100.00016956712977 | Undox | 1651969890884 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651969889695 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9102500660997176 | GJfrSmDc9Iw7snbeibww | {"NO": 0.041954067920352736, "YES": 98.95978141596692} | 0 | will-aliens-land-before-june-2022 | 223.55382096399816 | Will aliens land before June 2022? | 1654055940000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.387656313763674 | True | play | NO | public | 1651970473826 | Duncn | Will aliens make physical contact, through controlled landing or crashing, on Earth or the ISS, before on on the the last day of June 2022 (EST)?
#fun #longshots #shortterm #aliens
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20527925030204386, "platformFee": 0.03421320838367398, "liquidityFee": 0.20527925030204386} | 0 | 1654119824769 | 101.20527925030207 | Duncn | 1653907976218 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373407194}] | ["aliens"] | 0.99 | 1653907974829 | 1653837938057 | 0.004281328799113309 |
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