p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5160221503622164 | FtV6c6iK81MCvbiFoIs2 | {"NO": 312.99387624019704, "YES": 36.57418745975457} | 1 | will-david-mccormick-win-a-single-c | 425 | Will David McCormick win a single county in the PA GOP Senate primary? | 1652759940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.259565630572787 | True | play | YES | public | 1651970638084 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if David McCormick wins a single county in the PA GOP Senate primary. It resolves to No if he does not win a single county. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9923386844998652, "platformFee": 0.3320564474166442, "liquidityFee": 1.9923386844998652} | 0 | 1652840076977 | 101.99233868449987 | EnopoletusHarding | 1652749710458 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479122}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652749709165 | 1652149274627 | 0.9012286526523325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01534629124881456 | TnmD8wLGSo0tCJbcn61y | {"NO": 124.99999999495834, "YES": 8.596293055163073e-08} | 1 | test-6 | 25 | test 6 | 1651974505872 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.55691666832187 | True | play | YES | public | 1651974456827 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.024998718181848e-08, "platformFee": 5.0416645303030805e-09, "liquidityFee": 3.024998718181848e-08} | 0 | 1651974505872 | 100.00000003024999 | Electricitypipe | 1651974498792 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1651974494495 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5068237096300984 | APMT1F3ajHr5ORMfoFWt | {"NO": 326.5899392970098, "YES": 34.67829289157086} | 1 | will-instacart-file-to-ipo-in-2022 | 323.0003307481589 | Will Instacart file to IPO in 2022? | 1652652270900 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2781382546174527 | True | play | YES | public | 1651980550909 | Jack | Resolves YES if in 2022 Instacart files to go public (e.g. files S-1). Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Context: Instacart is one of the 10 most valuable startups according to https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies, but cut its valuation 40% from $39B to $24B amidst the recent te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.458379728988501, "platformFee": 0.40972995483141683, "liquidityFee": 2.458379728988501} | 0 | 1652652270900 | 102.45837972898849 | jack | 1652652260519 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565968}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652652259235 | 1652402083801 | 0.8967685340751604 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
e8yjPUTv53F7c8P6LnoY | 284709-63249-248693-158643-23499-69 | 200 | 284709 63249 248693 158643 23499 69363 23499 206576 229253 ? | 1652020321234 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | 796c36063f60 | public | 1651984649680 | LukeW | e = 501
d = 8045
N = 289027
r = 287896
e*d = 4030545
e*d mod r = 1
e and r are relatively prime
d and r are relatively prime | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652020321234 | 240 | LukeW | 1652020305426 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "985bf9c0cc86", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413264, "textFts": "", "contractId": "e8yjPUTv53F7c8P6LnoY", "createdTime": 1651984649798, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 1652019941351 | 1652020304453 | {"796c36063f60": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
y0ZuLKJtmOEjAUPSFTDv | which-activities-will-take-place-at | 1071 | Which activities will take place at Bay Area Summer Solstice 2022? | 1655103540000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.784155921144943 | True | play | MKT | public | 1651987387086 | Rachel Shu | ALL correct answers will be chosen. So don't just bet on capture the flag, bet on everything which is at less than 1 / number of activities! (Yes, you can make a profit by deciding to run an activity, submitting that answer as a bet, and then making that activity happen. This is in fact a desired outcome.)
Betting clo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.079999999999999, "platformFee": 1.0199999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660445868591 | 639.9999999999999 | noumena | 1655238175476 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "47e242a517a2", "prob": 0.13616372326084886, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.565070523162024, "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.961263905992197, "textFts": "", "contractId": "y0ZuLKJtmOEjAUPSFTDv", "createdTime": 1651987387180, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1655100352133 | 1655238172252 | {"254b8b3ee6a1": 15.94446434580606, "5cad45415f94": 15.94446434580606, "63f67c7ede32": 20.277678270969705, "71e7ecd551cd": 15.94446434580606, "aeb36507f3b4": 15.94446434580606, "c00b69e4546e": 15.94446434580606} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4991681649074034 | 88mYJKWTqzB1mGDXQamz | {"NO": 79.12892038503463, "YES": 129.88847583643124} | 0 | will-at-least-10-group-houses-creat | 30 | Will at least 10 group houses create flags for Capture the House Flags at Bay Area Secular Solstice 2022? | 1652597940000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7767174662733707 | True | play | NO | public | 1651987885179 | Rachel Shu | This is a proxy/floater for whether or not Capture the House Flags will happen at all! The idea is if your group house creates a flag, you all get to be on the same team. We divide houses into two teams, and everyone else gets randomly assigned to a team, and then we have some version of multipolar capture the flag (yo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6691449814126395, "platformFee": 0.11152416356877325, "liquidityFee": 0.6691449814126395} | 0 | 1660445897838 | 100.66914498141264 | noumena | 1652020828373 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1652020827189 | 0.377793302451472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5887953990586204 | KD5on6tqJGofSBnl7OjV | {"NO": 640.1558647467507, "YES": 27.34989155763416} | 1 | will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake-51ac90e8b836 | 4811.224033877285 | Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October? | 1663227259580 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.736055147204996 | True | play | YES | public | 1651991172763 | Bolton Bailey | This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum mainnet merge happens before the beginning of October. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.89831928171066, "platformFee": 2.370762263268721, "liquidityFee": 14.224573579612326} | 0 | 1663227259580 | 108.4368249366953 | BoltonBailey | 1663223757737 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 47 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658678383049}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 16656... | ["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.5 | 1663223754402 | 1661390801895 | 0.9710269172639879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fUhBeZnwYNqbgdg9obio | what-will-the-price-of-the-xbi-biot | 220 | What will the price of the $XBI biotech index be as of market close on December 30th, 2022? | 1669849200000 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.819494920240895 | True | play | af358aba010d | public | 1652009547780 | Stephen Malina | This market will resolve to the pre-specified range that contains the $XBI price as of stock market close on December 30th, 2022. Note that I'm closing the market a month in advance because I want this to be a prediction challenge rather than having people trade during market movement in the final month. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672442127392 | 400.00000000000006 | StephenMalina | 1669735062525 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3f96e04a4e38", "prob": 0.2066115702479339, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.246509379169781, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.18659601601196, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fUhBeZnwYNqbgdg9obio", "createdTime": 1652009547910, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 7 | 3 | 1669735061033 | {"af358aba010d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
v4U1uzQ34e4Gilfpo35Z | how-many-new-complete-projects-will | 370 | How many new complete projects will the boring company have as of 01/01/2024? | 1704085260000 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.872282915004588 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652011195017 | Stephen Malina | Currently the Boring Company lists three complete projects on their projects page (https://www.boringcompany.com/projects) if you count the Hyperloop and Hawthorne test tracks. This question will resolve to the number of *new* completed projects they list on the page as of the start of 2024. If the page disappears by t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704243077906 | 440 | StephenMalina | 1704243078148 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f87aa0372380", "prob": 0.3459207612456747, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.196494940006747, "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 57.09660314195845, "textFts": "", "contractId": "v4U1uzQ34e4Gilfpo35Z", "resolverId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "createdTime": 165201... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131680398}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1703296349414 | 1704243068198 | {"8942c9f1cda3": 66.66666666666667, "9a8547d77a2d": 33.333333333333336} | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35171164093192614 | 8Lt9ZTHCPCK58gtn0Y8n | {"NO": 156.52559113885198, "YES": 66.34098286768784} | 1 | will-i-create-at-least-one-more-pre | 392.52130895810905 | Will I create at least one more prediction market in the next week? | 1652274050352 | PgQVVYhLjnNVwkyjk32JvwxOGJ12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.822521885854666 | True | play | YES | public | 1652012734558 | Alexey Guzey | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.123811836689379, "platformFee": 1.35396863944823, "liquidityFee": 8.123811836689379} | 0 | 1652274050352 | 108.12381183668938 | guzey | 1652295705239 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GirdyTcDFkN-sso6MYmJfZ5l2mc8EU5-X48s-Bim9o=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.33 | 1652147977243 | 1652295701943 | 0.5614103129100443 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.606343424966377 | GyEUrFIzrxFA3boqoJMS | {"NO": 1681.5697523172037, "YES": 118.77350655163306} | 1 | will-joel-becker-join-the-leaderboa | 1990.4564321735309 | Will Joel Becker join the leaderboard before August? | 1652673540000 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.646924804397137 | True | play | YES | public | 1652013272963 | @misha | Who: https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker
What exactly: be a top-20 trader (or as high as needed if the visible leaderboard would display fewer people at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards) anytime before 00:01 Aug 1st (GMT-4) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.628240457925052, "platformFee": 3.104706742987509, "liquidityFee": 18.628240457925052} | 0 | 1652816613044 | 318.6282404579251 | misha | 1652637867096 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1652637863410 | 1652042249705 | 0.956153865304328 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4945544239233801 | 2eGh5A5UEU4BYiqZWmkt | {"NO": 49.061113931009544, "YES": 221.35151131036588} | 0 | will-i-be-convinced-that-i-should-b | 141.27614758436744 | Will I be convinced that I should be worried about eating 1 pound of pure pig lard every week, in terms of health risks? | 1654055940000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9845868395781903 | True | play | NO | public | 1652014495092 | Scrooge McDuck | For context, I thought earlier associative literature turned out to be spurious or meaningless. And that eating a bunch of saturated fat isn't actually dangerous, if we assume you don't already have a pre-existing heart condition, and you're not eating cartoonish amounts, and the source isn't low-quality (e.g. eating ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6914955476736633, "platformFee": 0.2819159246122772, "liquidityFee": 1.6914955476736633} | 0 | 1654436377607 | 101.69149554767367 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1653839134478 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653163226399 | 1653839131864 | 0.17821788644061626 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15397206177799366 | iApPyHU1Zshlw4Fh3pyP | {"NO": 984.9333209003223, "YES": 1086.0425403061574} | 0.1416682113503151 | if-elon-musk-buys-twitter-will-its | 219.00671789441384 | If Elon Musk buys Twitter, will its revenue quintuple by 2028? | 1861981200000 | skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.83830118848277 | False | basic | public | 1652019546720 | Eli Lifland | From https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10791425/Elon-Musk-plans-fire-1-000-Twitter-staff-quintuple-revenue-69-million-users-paying-3-month.html: "Elon Musk plans to quintuple Twitter's revenue to $26.4 billion by 2028"
If Elon Musk buys Twitter: if Twitter's revenue is at least $26.4 billion in any year on or b... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0252894436129516, "platformFee": 0.3375482406021586, "liquidityFee": 2.0252894436129516} | 0 | 1000 | EliLifland | 1710451942279 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.2 | 1683108746398 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45397672040700204 | NHxPG3Goo7Un9AUESWQy | {"NO": 154.72816888519424, "YES": 212.9742431887725} | 0.37657362450822923 | will-a-hierarchical-rl-algorithm-be | 33 | Will a hierarchical RL algorithm be SOTA on any major RL benchmark by 2025? | 1735707600000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652021450484 | Vincent Luczkow | I'm intentionally being somewhat vague. Certainly if someone released an option-based algorithm that achieved SOTA on Atari that would count. On the flip side an algorithm that achieved SOTA on a benchmark specifically designed to test hierarchical learning wouldn't count. | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.012878405613763426, "platformFee": 0.012878405613763426, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | vluzko | 1713442059877 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440194}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736834682}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1713442056617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1403257755225293 | PDuxSH3rJkMKhaW3STxG | {"NO": 233.89811297617496, "YES": 1629.4721679212425} | 0 | will-the-us-jones-act-be-repealed-o | 2347.629452579409 | Will the US Jones Act be repealed or reformed by 2023-05-15? | 1684149745838 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6058816779519303 | True | play | NO | public | 1652023201664 | Martin Randall | Looking for outright repeal or real reform. I may resolve to 50% if there are token changes that don't solve the problem. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.13616173385679065, "platformFee": 0.02269362230946511, "liquidityFee": 0.13616173385679065} | 0 | 1684149745838 | 320.1361617338568 | MartinRandall | 1684149828602 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484636}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1684134656746 | 1684149825481 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HcWi5S6sttCU8dUuu3Pu | which-ea-bahamas-coffee-is-which | 9401.781829037256 | Which EA Bahamas coffee is which? | 1652025286842 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.620727346977285 | True | play | 0c64ae576c3e | public | 1652024312037 | Joel Becker | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.68872683850975, "platformFee": 18.922181709627438, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652025286842 | 460.00000000000017 | JoelBecker | 1652025264398 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d0edf73300d7", "prob": 0.0001264677467282035, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00010430342299354347, "userId": "jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.8246389666354649, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HcWi5S6sttCU8dUuu3Pu", "createdTime": 1652024312115, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 1652025264241 | {"0c64ae576c3e": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6812758682514181 | e7TBoky9zzqCpj3gLVJI | {"NO": 13.523662706664297, "YES": 285.4129155049454} | 0 | will-manifold-release-any-form-of-s | 261 | Will Manifold release any form of scalar markets before May 16th? | 1652673540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.0653602748294935 | True | play | NO | public | 1652025259525 | David Glidden | This Discord post (https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/915138780653051910/972854988743278603 ) suggests that MM devs are working on scalar markets. Will it or some other form of scalar markets be released by May 16th ET? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.3861710653429515, "platformFee": 0.731028510890492, "liquidityFee": 4.3861710653429515} | 0 | 1652698523373 | 104.38617106534294 | dglid | 1652667376068 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1652667375868 | 0.091966688489919 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19471356709961865 | 9ASTEblGCTmlcoz7WFom | {"NO": 936.048047116627, "YES": 1307.1624229793695} | 0.1475917441008791 | will-cannabis-be-decriminalised-in | 932.0274118306388 | Will Cannabis be decriminalised in the UK before 2025 | 1735707540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.723369211880936 | False | basic | public | 1652025310654 | Manifold | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.027509171126417514} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.415696129783765, "platformFee": 0.5146902207131872, "liquidityFee": 3.0881413242791225} | 0 | 1000 | Manifold | 1718428330965 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 16 | [] | [] | 0.3 | 1718428327876 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14325589092804772 | Bzfi6GCAecwA7Hd529RE | {"NO": 237.6620688490691, "YES": 766.7834271431384} | 0 | will-by-the-end-of-2022-the-officia | 1384.6869853783714 | Will by the end of 2022 the official consensus be that the COVID 19 pandemic was most likely result of a lab leak. | 1672527540000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.594610004508055 | True | play | NO | public | 1652025346082 | Donald | Will resolve "YES" if the majority of main stream media reports on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 state it as most likely that it spread after a security breach in any laboratory. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1352509468892307, "platformFee": 0.33726687153418256, "liquidityFee": 2.023601229205095} | 0 | 1672564576702 | 282.0236012292051 | Donald | 1672525414871 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601085}] | ["medicine"] | 0.1 | 1672525414706 | 1666983564940 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3756507962583505 | HamRCUdFCJssazXljbXQ | {"NO": 934.1133449021185, "YES": 1059.7770359316432} | 0.3465438902264424 | will-the-us-and-china-go-to-war-thi | 1923.1314696897261 | Will the US and China go to war this century? | 4102559940000 | ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641207813961545 | False | basic | public | 1652026645735 | Devansh |
Close date updated to 2100-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0030866611924742493, "month": 0.0030866611924742493} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.034619781294673, "platformFee": 2.367458872178412, "liquidityFee": 4.070757690506329} | 0 | 1000 | Devansh | 1720003003642 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c | 2 | 39 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560105}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1677122595411}] | ["china", "global-macro"] | 0.68 | 1720002999453 | 1652057602608 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4991883132615996 | kFSvaTl4uNrCiFXiGcVq | {"NO": 74.90213000110376, "YES": 144.8961180832794} | 1 | will-i-decide-to-buy-another-bottle | 80 | Will I decide to buy another bottle of nicotinamide mononucleotide? | 1653893940000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.746779248449111 | True | play | YES | public | 1652028929730 | Alicorn | I've been taking it for a few days now and haven't really noticed anything dramatic, but I plan to take one a day less any days I forget till I'm through the thirty-pill bottle and then make a decision. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0611276183105094, "platformFee": 0.3435212697184182, "liquidityFee": 2.0611276183105094} | 0 | 1655830948036 | 102.06112761831052 | Alicorn | 1653859392323 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653859392128 | 0.3400477398082811 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WK39enfnPeFFZ7wvEGGo | which-novel-will-win-the-2022-hugo | 162 | Which novel will win the 2022 Hugo Award for Best Novel? | 1662274740000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.883384503435939 | True | play | d695d3e13a60 | public | 1652032054690 | Ben | Announcement of nominees is here: https://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2022-hugo-awards/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662385120610 | 540 | bcongdon | 1662035596480 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0d2de2d8ab28", "prob": 0.38103947568968144, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.042523751133437, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.17667558134116, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WK39enfnPeFFZ7wvEGGo", "createdTime": 1652032054775, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 5 | 1662035595011 | 1652041697020 | {"d695d3e13a60": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47470745930572983 | aIs8Si6oDzGlepXnxDpl | {"NO": 545.7536791574278, "YES": 17.7948833463563} | 1 | will-alphabet-shares-goog-be-tradin | 588.2981151213671 | Will Alphabet shares (goog) be trading higher than Amazon (AMZN) at the end of this week? | 1652500740000 | Hk1dU5ciKPd4ZxId90xCuOVxY5H3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9524892425413953 | True | play | YES | public | 1652034190131 | Sam Beriault | This market will resolve to yes if alphabet shares (GOOG) are trading higher than Amazon (AMZN) at the close of trading on May 13th, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.251514896754671, "platformFee": 0.7085858161257785, "liquidityFee": 4.251514896754671} | 0 | 1653935930394 | 104.25151489675468 | SamBeriault | 1652484890641 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxXpCJw7VM86goL75PbgQg5TKou6gTGo93Pi6MC=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1652484889114 | 0.9651758830615249 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Jopi4SHMPS6d3FnYleb | which-market-sorting-options-will-m | 1400.5101248488013 | Which market sorting options will Manifold support in 2 weeks? | 1653278340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.650460136207263 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652039246357 | Austin | Today, we support a variety of sort options, but James is proposing to remove some when we switch over to Algolia search (preview here: https://manifold-git-algolia-mantic.vercel.app/markets ; code here https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/136) Try it, it's super fast!
James is proposing we winnow down to:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.239999999999996, "platformFee": 1.309999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655607731327 | 900.0000000000002 | Austin | 1653261511848 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7009609673ad", "prob": 0.005179516571838163, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.028539613140259826, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.481552447465191, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2Jopi4SHMPS6d3FnYleb", "createdTime": 1652039246426, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 1653261510544 | 1652119514413 | {"31718d11617e": 16.666666666666668, "6dbcd1351ca9": 16.666666666666668, "87074c643a7a": 16.666666666666668, "8a8c48a720ca": 16.666666666666668, "d47dbf939001": 16.666666666666668, "e86dcc1ac318": 16.666666666666668} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.250569530545367 | GsDvZeZKEhL5lbwx0BIa | {"NO": 798.4698067269271, "YES": 270.52806175745974} | 0 | will-manifold-natively-support-comm | 220 | Will Manifold natively support "committing to actions" within 6 months? | 1658790101577 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8906341877686352 | True | play | NO | public | 1652041672331 | Austin | Reasons to do this:
We've actually seen this particular use case picking up steam among users:
- https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-finish-a-triathlon-4ea28f3c991e
- https://manifold.markets/guzey/will-i-create-at-least-one-more-pre
- https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-stick-with-assigning-probabi
Also, one of ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.751077328161331, "platformFee": 0.7345101084234575, "liquidityFee": 4.407060650540745} | 0 | 1658790101577 | 604.4070606505408 | Austin | 1658791935720 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | 1658669376284 | 1658791933821 | 0.4966861050949779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B2gcmHkxszJaGlnGyUNX | which-book-reviews-will-win-the-202 | 359 | Which book reviews will win the 2022 ACX Book Review Contest? | 1662004740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.748830720373723 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652044255256 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022?s=r", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022?s=r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662171258737 | 919.9999999999999 | Austin | 1662172673645 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "44fb296c8b05", "prob": 0.08210113217461269, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.559915725236646, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.440013799718226, "textFts": "", "contractId": "B2gcmHkxszJaGlnGyUNX", "createdTime": 1652044255467, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529464898}] | ["acx"] | 1661986011685 | 1662172671398 | {"1ca467ab9e67": 9.523809523809524, "291ac0c7b682": 9.523809523809524, "8bf569fb6540": 47.61904761904762, "b7aa2e2a8bac": 9.523809523809524, "dddcfd9988d4": 23.80952380952381} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.263152723878764 | mXJzpRTJloQnUTeQbEvJ | {"NO": 129.99999999999997, "YES": 95.13148009015774} | 0.32797204363701526 | will-an-electric-vehicle-containing | 10 | Will an electric vehicle containing a Sila Nanotechnologies >10% silicon anode be commercially available by the end of 2025? | 1767250740000 | qwDo5nmtZJWflE9MYmKSNgIlSIr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652046830114 | Jasper Woodard | This market resolves Yes if a commercially available vehicle is powered by a Sila Nanotechnologies cell by the end of 2025. Sila hopes to be producing large scale batteries at it's new factory in Washington by 2024. For more details, see https://jaspercwoodard.wixsite.com/enscipredictions | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | JasperWoodard | 1680738294852 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgMQzIQmDTwpGLtAWlSuCS5u0DruPbkgTHPeMrk=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1680738293628 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.613498083018721 | s9v3Nh7x1gtRpa6dzSvS | {"NO": 7.167520090658871, "YES": 568.787090564647} | 0 | will-i-increase-my-stay-in-the-baha | 828.1754781240921 | Will I increase my stay in the Bahamas for an extra 2 weeks? | 1652327940000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.827909849280937 | True | play | NO | public | 1652046853138 | David Chee | My original length of stay was supposed to be 1.5 weeks but I'm hoping to extend it to the end of the month. Still figuring out if I can get away with it as I have a charity stream I was supposed to partake in (but think I'll be able to do it from here) and need to wait to see if Joel will approve it (in before he pred... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.921246809213404, "platformFee": 0.8202078015355674, "liquidityFee": 4.921246809213404} | 0 | 1652589082081 | 104.92124680921343 | SirSalty | 1652325998766 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.65 | 1652316161412 | 1652325996580 | 0.019610089640180628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13919405987376451 | MDvhCsBHAkp6v5KXTZsX | {"NO": 165.2423785240266, "YES": 3.978382241574491} | 1 | will-my-flight-be-late | 203.43216848600707 | Will my flight be late? | 1652075641959 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.179757955851035 | True | play | YES | public | 1652047069233 | Jack | My last flight was delayed 5.5 hours! Will my return flight arrive on time? (United, US transcontinental flight)
Close date updated to 2022-05-09 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2690304499486085, "platformFee": 0.3781717416581014, "liquidityFee": 2.2690304499486085} | 0 | 1652075641959 | 102.26903044994862 | jack | 1652075621886 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 1652061776918 | 1652075610689 | 0.8704042846226243 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3204153616979868 | AqYOJFdJUFJVpF8cFUIW | {"NO": 96.65048079672178, "YES": 147.92685935239135} | 0 | will-i-have-an-assurance-contract-w | 296 | Will I have an assurance contract website live by the end of May? | 1654034762963 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.976792795974787 | True | play | NO | public | 1652047867338 | Tetra | https://schelling.pt/web/statuses/108265965232993936
I'm working on a website that does assurance contracts. It looks pretty nice so far. Frontend supports making and viewing contract; backend additionally supports signing up to contracts. Not much is stable and if you go off the happy path it crashes and burns. Even... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.744592763795648, "platformFee": 0.9574321272992747, "liquidityFee": 5.744592763795648} | 0 | 1654034762963 | 105.74459276379568 | Tetraspace | 1654027863645 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3 | 1654027861811 | 1652055546093 | 0.23550552871132044 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5716214199819526 | LTspgutOQSB1TEbiLkn9 | {"NO": 771.8797741850601, "YES": 403.28881977154333} | 0 | will-madison-cawthorn-win-the-repub | 715.9673506639556 | Will Madison Cawthorn win the Republican nomination for the NC-11 House election? | 1652760060000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7302100581495935 | True | play | NO | public | 1652050890418 | SG | May 18, 9:06am: He didn't win. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/madison-cawthorn-trump-backed-incumbent-congressman-loses-primary/ar-AAXp4NR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.29164064495163, "platformFee": 2.715273440825272, "liquidityFee": 16.29164064495163} | 0 | 1652879267569 | 516.2916406449517 | SG | 1652844923573 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482291}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.57 | 1652749567269 | 1652844922962 | 0.718623795341979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i43UQVSrBIlaEknubFr6 | what-percentage-of-senate-seats-wil | 208 | What percentage of Senate seats will each party have following the 2022 Australian federal election? | 1653047940000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.830077169550886 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652052148108 | N.C. Young | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655878598879 | 380.00000000000006 | NcyRocks | 1653010053052 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "14431be5c2be", "prob": 0.23113905325443787, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.518073943124774, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.96652116441025, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i43UQVSrBIlaEknubFr6", "createdTime": 1652052148210, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500716}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112330}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "group... | ["politics-default", "australia", "us-politics"] | 1653010051743 | False | {"23fa8c8245a8": 7.894736842105263, "74f3d6921cbc": 34.21052631578947, "7ad18a34c2ee": 34.21052631578947, "8d9900301352": 15.789473684210526, "ef4169c2c664": 7.894736842105263} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11309176966040212 | WI8j4FVcoWLBQyKXYyyf | {"NO": 980.1422865860395, "YES": 1124.8223855122944} | 0.1 | will-the-us-institute-a-national-ba | 264.47495795421133 | Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035? | 2094523140000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.072565044320307 | False | basic | public | 1652053455343 | Stochastic Cockatoo | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0027177867666124, "platformFee": 0.16711963112776873, "liquidityFee": 1.0027177867666124} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1706650180781 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 0.22 | 1706650180635 | 1652095086965 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
udHSH1LvVHKT94UI07L6 | which-linear-algebra-resource-textb | 115 | Which Linear Algebra resource (textbook etc.) will I like best? | 1677743940000 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.974821181696528 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652053469379 | Eli Tyre | Things I care about:
* Clarity / good explanations
* Fun to engage with
* Conciseness | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1694978392675 | 240 | EliTyre | 1677285766267 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4e4dad2845ae", "prob": 0.7561436672967864, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 103.05769398805789, "userId": "BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.236106311148674, "textFts": "", "contractId": "udHSH1LvVHKT94UI07L6", "createdTime": 1652053469450, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 40 | 2 | 1677285766128 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3235353866092064 | qfY6CsHZsnK666cFNr3R | {"NO": 20.21018203566885, "YES": 2292.2761338912114} | 0 | will-i-go-on-a-date-before-july | 5354.439296210785 | Will I go on a date before July? | 1656647940000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.335778887246755 | True | play | NO | public | 1652054155170 | David Chee | I'm hopeless when it comes to dating so just keep that in mind | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.770344243960146, "platformFee": 0.326813824016618, "liquidityFee": 1.960882944099708} | 0 | 1659343832138 | 101.9608829440997 | SirSalty | 1659343855907 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1656624865537 | 1659343853057 | 0.004199064327836739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | 2j61wLgoMZTWOxlV0kLs | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | do-free-markets-that-i-can-pull-mon | 13 | Do free markets that I can pull money out of prevent creativity in creating new markets? | 1652054898703 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1652054879675 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1652054898703 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1652054888732 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652054887283 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4877695498426203 | 0LEDkUju1vEuPC9AoCwW | {"NO": 33.190835182172336, "YES": 345.2709897853125} | 0 | will-razib-khan-double-their-starti | 396 | Will Razib Khan double their starting balance to M$2000 before July? | 1656647940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3452607248646755 | True | play | NO | public | 1652056385130 | Manifold | https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1523437768172470272?t=fNdWH6DqRKTB7JXacazjOQ&s=19 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.201235468753482, "platformFee": 0.3522904351451976, "liquidityFee": 2.1137426108711854} | 0 | 1661147831294 | 102.11374261087118 | Manifold | 1656285468084 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656285466767 | 1656284520563 | 0.08386254233907627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
u82l3ni7JsPfqlqja6JM | what-should-we-call-the-4bed15-unit | 170.10633944759473 | What should we call the 4bed/1.5 unit below @Austin? | 1654036155777 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.916068625823969 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652057921331 | Sinclair Chen | What should we call the house in the question https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1 ?
This resolves N/A if that market resolves NO
Otherwise, the people in the house will decide based on consensus | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.37327926636731834, "platformFee": 0.09331981659182959, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654036155777 | 620.0000000000001 | Sinclair | 1653112500587 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e3d4e268677f", "prob": 0.4966769603232878, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.832244742411355, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.28495707099649, "textFts": "", "contractId": "u82l3ni7JsPfqlqja6JM", "createdTime": 1652057921466, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1653112498864 | 1652392989583 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BrRgWpi7sGKkHGWPWjXL | which-resource-textbook-etc-for-lea | 192 | Which resource (textbook, etc.) for learning basics physics will I find most engaging? | 1682924340000 | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.927227141300115 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652062041944 | Eli Tyre | I'm planning to sample each resource for 5 hours or so to make a judgement. I'm looking for which one is most interesting to read.
Resources should involve equations (calculus is just fine), and be comparable to a textbook, instead of a popularization.
Should cover mechanics, electromagnetism, heat, etc. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696273891065 | 560 | EliTyre | 1681640967683 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ad702ec06e55", "prob": 0.5406574394463668, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.41058244455005, "userId": "BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.12963084488972, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BrRgWpi7sGKkHGWPWjXL", "createdTime": 1652062042047, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 31 | 7 | [] | [] | 1681640967402 | 1666051747647 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.259041201819786 | tra77RAQdDMv30GIAmi2 | {"NO": 94.18569864161671, "YES": 363.1615745916055} | 0.08313172740532594 | will-it-ever-be-confirmed-india-has | 571.6429659205942 | Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan? | 1893560340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652063298083 | Enopoletus Harding | After China and the U.S., the country with the highest over 125 IQ population appears to be Japan (also the second most populous rich country). The question is, does India, the world's third largest economy by PPP, have a greater >125 IQ population than Japan? India's average IQ has variously been estimated from the hi... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.255462244313632, "platformFee": 0.11155160145146795, "liquidityFee": 0.6693096087088075} | 0 | 140.6693096087088 | EnopoletusHarding | 1680973114077 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Harding's national questions", "slug": "hardings-national-questions", "groupId": "1VFeQWsYuY13IFQ6J55S", "createdTime": 1658529390052}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422215}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lA... | ["hardings-national-questions", "world-default", "india"] | 0.35 | 1680973113978 | 1656008276751 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49608386875275357 | tX5Dpi0Rma9QvRh0vALT | {"NO": 94.96897296928486, "YES": 115.80565869559052} | 0 | will-recession-have-a-higher-averag | 177.1803952806855 | Will "Recession" have a higher average Google Search Trends score than "Inflation" in the week ending on May 31, 2022? | 1653461940000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.68519152314155 | True | play | NO | public | 1652065514611 | Ben | Data Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F09jx2,%2Fm%2F06bmj
This resolves using the "Average" trend score for the 7 day period ending on May 31, 2022.
Fine print: I'm using "Recession" and "Inflation" as *Topics* in trends, rather than search terms. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.397969085382046, "platformFee": 0.39966151423034113, "liquidityFee": 2.397969085382046} | 0 | 1654051011804 | 102.39796908538204 | bcongdon | 1654050966768 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653453788718 | 1654050965019 | 0.446696313405214 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | NZYgR3D5wtcDWH3zECGy | {"NO": 109.99928672359447, "YES": 0.016608441545895268} | 1 | free-market | 10 | Free market | 1652065570469 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613774076056245 | True | play | YES | public | 1652065558066 | Jenny | Why am I doing this? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1652065570469 | 100.00427965843322 | Jenny | 1652065569273 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652065564981 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2mMBJULiYdOFsT5byRCB | which-interpretation-of-quantum-mec | 552.8001331558513 | Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 | 1893459600000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1652067835322 | Undox | Resolves to one if it is universally accepted (except a tiny fringe), otherwise is weighted based on something believable as to the current state of thinking, like something published in quanta magazine for example.
Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Undox | 1714481437936 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2b08bfc5dee8", "prob": 0.03980871014705885, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.721427062770669, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 186.2418295774635, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2mMBJULiYdOFsT5byRCB", "createdTime": 1652067835605, "probChanges": {"day": -0.96019128985... | 5 | 1714481434699 | 1652659515366 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vCdOOCyE1qcVP0YwD7gA | have-extraterrestrials-visited-eart | 100 | Have extraterrestrials visited earth? | 1652073299875 | tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652073220483 | Anthony Carlino | I will choose answer according to the response that provides the most definitive, logical, evidentiary proof that extraterrestrials have visited earth or they haven’t. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652073299875 | 220 | AnthonyCarlino | 1652073225037 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiarrWO1IB-v4FHyWapKfNDiJb9oV1Hl1rOD5ROrw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ffad77cf867c", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vCdOOCyE1qcVP0YwD7gA", "createdTime": 1652073220615, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | [{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373429240}] | ["aliens"] | 1652073220483 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016241752461681674 | zh6kPdFJe3Ygy6dAhPmv | {"NO": 139.9999999999999, "YES": 1.4919621094122705e-12} | 1 | test-7 | 40 | test 7 | 1652076470269 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586238416827499 | True | play | YES | public | 1652076396827 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.790035118025116e-13, "platformFee": 9.650058530041861e-14, "liquidityFee": 5.790035118025116e-13} | 0 | 1652076470269 | 100.00000000000058 | Electricitypipe | 1652076468935 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652076464896 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41378699811480535 | 51JyAMVc9aAC5lXxC0hI | {"NO": 8.010292694752025, "YES": 5297.971976120324} | 0 | will-databricks-file-to-ipo-in-2022 | 5222.3734913139 | Will Databricks file to IPO in 2022? | 1672550944228 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.737670102119706 | True | play | NO | public | 1652079561754 | Jack | Resolves YES if in 2022 Databricks files to go public (e.g. files S-1). Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Background: Databricks is one of the 10 most valuable startups according to https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies, with a $38B valuation as of last August, and there has been... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8981502132567467, "platformFee": 0.48302503554279114, "liquidityFee": 2.8981502132567467} | 0 | 1672550944228 | 122.89815021325674 | jack | 1672550931812 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564577}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672550931666 | 1652102890488 | 0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47909059447269664 | joSya5IxRwQTPuJAEUmM | {"NO": 48.019387232236454, "YES": 3852.9323086286195} | 0 | will-mathlib-have-formal-proofs-of-1c7b8db224d8 | 7374.051090403123 | Will mathlib have formal proofs of 75 out of 100 theorems from Freek Wiedijk's list by end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3989294900958416 | True | play | NO | public | 1652080761050 | Bolton Bailey | Similar to this question, https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-mathlib-have-formal-proofs-of.
Will https://leanprover-community.github.io/100.html indicate 75 theorems have been proved by the end of 2022? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5131808066459858, "platformFee": 0.2521968011076643, "liquidityFee": 1.5131808066459858} | 0 | 1672553002043 | 501.513180806646 | BoltonBailey | 1672552662252 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1664301710603}, {"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1... | ["mathematics", "the-lean-theorem-prover"] | 0.5 | 1672552662082 | 1672213663309 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9378893113701116 | aCml4Gu2ZX5LLigDv1It | {"NO": 1061.4725179568645, "YES": 995.7763474095023} | 0.941508589273237 | will-asml-be-a-monopoly-in-euv-lith | 978.6865039945044 | Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | 0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.569983282130789 | False | basic | public | 1652093769250 | Donald | This market will resolve "YES" if ASML will be the only company producing EUV machines by the end of 2024. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.002885605696928528} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.47205754605802097, "platformFee": 0.04387322489794697, "liquidityFee": 0.2632393493876818} | 0 | 1000 | Donald | 1718381559913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1700926914101}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1700926923928}] | ["technology-default", "semiconductors"] | 0.10142266686153802 | 0.95 | 1718381556864 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9889226415039984 | 1y3rn1BeMcutjSm6roiM | {"NO": 1.2969664477822862, "YES": 104.97852506295952} | 0 | will-the-mit-student-center-be-dest | 5 | Will the MIT Student Center be destroyed by a meteor before 10:00 AM EDT today? | 1652104882818 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693649 | True | play | NO | public | 1652104822147 | Peter Berggren | Exactly what the title says. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285823, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476372, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285823} | 0 | 1652104882818 | 100.12884962224285 | PeterBerggren | 1652104846467 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741670}] | ["mit"] | 0.99 | 1652104842688 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.015621075577419926 | 15LReOopLHpohYJrejvT | {"NO": 99.23026065299186, "YES": 0.9939768909445803} | 0.6130365768775952 | testing | 24 | testing | 1652111940000 | 6bZw8YwItRdzPppHP3YAh1Wvwrt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.527644711279134 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652105796527 | Rahul Swaminathan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680911775702 | 100.18688082746908 | RahulSwaminathan | 1680911767212 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhvPHRKVrwpdNnZG8HmB98m4BfxqOyZREBfNOeh0oBFNF_W816OgereQPuyMUNK8qpn5NyW78AeQdxzFOgUtx5XVdKHoopXrxKQmVlmphET5xpJJ3mQzCs2CTikKRAMsYby-E_JsCIJY22XJt1gJxxymqHms6TiGgtrgSElj7t27hoe8UUrFIB7FJMqyrDZMcpRcotn7I-A2B0Qlrw0Koy3xagqS3_t1jcELVQnpf3Kikq0FOL-Xe9_2XcRcxei2a0Iej4SBKSKpyYZs0uyG3s... | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779658072}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.01 | 1652108982635 | 1680911764992 | 0.61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7200728487530816 | dOVJEaCU0lcaKuHT9qq4 | {"NO": 3735.823139971737, "YES": 92.80437934562826} | 1 | will-avatar-the-way-of-water-gross | 4059.867148023739 | Will Avatar: The Way of Water gross at least 1 billion USD at the box office internationally? | 1672331613322 | z8RRHAzVe5bYW4Y8F34IEYUBGVq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6487298215210706 | True | play | YES | public | 1652106017997 | Frogs | This answer resolves to Yes if Box Office Mojo, Rotten Tomatoes or any other media outlet of repute reports that Avater: Way of Water has grossed at least 1 billion USD at the box office internationally within ~one year of its theatrical release. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.20677531444153, "platformFee": 0.42646371706061603, "liquidityFee": 2.558782302363696} | 0 | 1672331613322 | 302.5587823023637 | Frogs | 1672328917911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GircJifFYjj9y9-1ss8GMLZIrslp4w5aFD3i-8FMg=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w"}] | ["boxoffice"] | 0.5 | 1672328917799 | 1672327229854 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UgaC1qIqyCP3D5rdEras | which-of-the-top-10-forbes-2022-esp | 200 | Which of the top 10 Forbes 2022 esports companies will have the largest % growth? | 1682913540000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652109452852 | David Chee | A few days ago Forbes released their updated most valuable esports companies https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2022/05/06/the-most-valuable-esports-companies-2022/?sh=402189ee599f
This market will resolve when they release their first version of this list in 2023. If a new team enters next year's top 10 they ar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1706300852501 | 460.00000000000006 | SirSalty | 1706300853136 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "871aaac4ed4a", "prob": 0.24999999999999994, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.022141502711035, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.06642450813312, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UgaC1qIqyCP3D5rdEras", "resolverId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "createdTime": 16521... | 55 | 3 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072080}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1691181083605}] | ["please-resolve", "gaming"] | 1670460917708 | 1702896395385 | False | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dMOuG0UQzjjrRWaVJd64 | which-country-will-win-eurovision-2 | 241 | Which country will win Eurovision 2022? | 1652551200000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.80329104953918 | True | play | 4bb23df47300 | public | 1652109991590 | Manifold | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.2500000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652757330022 | 440 | Manifold | 1652546407870 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "74a4de605b0c", "prob": 0.1721733441228629, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.422375659390486, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.30372440791539, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dMOuG0UQzjjrRWaVJd64", "createdTime": 1652109991852, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1652546406540 | 1652145537717 | {"4bb23df47300": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VmFeJm7dzYDzTsKWj23O | which-country-in-the-eurovision-wil | 110 | Which country in the Eurovision will place last on Saturday? | 1652547600000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | d13b2e9c576f | public | 1652110059583 | Manifold | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.2, "platformFee": 1.05, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652757296172 | 339.99999999999994 | Manifold | 1652546102864 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "15a0917b735e", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.79045422160532, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.725995386537116, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VmFeJm7dzYDzTsKWj23O", "createdTime": 1652110059786, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1652546102583 | {"d13b2e9c576f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11915338823779975 | k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv | {"NO": 50723.53248073241, "YES": 109617.32902487868} | 0.058907257979593335 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end | 144247.91978658317 | Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2841898165401524 | False | plus | public | 1652111138646 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Impressive, worrying analysis by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "label": "MatthewBarnett"}}, {"text": " in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a Facebook post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.03159362030102473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 619.2360662073115, "platformFee": 0.8687750912157096, "liquidityFee": 4.167285423933872} | 0 | 55629.16728542394 | dreev | 1719775237640 | 0.1 | 4 | 214 | 1 | 70 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561163}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950084253}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ", "slug": "pacific-rim", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPag... | ["china", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict"] | 0.1417881767806769 | 0.05 | 1719775234450 | 1718303680551 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QuT17BDLUr9XczIOeWpU | when-will-a-single-agent-beat-minec | 3090.4784653142 | When will a single agent beat Minecraft (defeat the Ender dragon)? | 1956546000000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1652111886683 | Vincent Luczkow | I won't accept any algorithm that is substantially tuned for Minecraft specifically. If the same algorithm couldn't be adapted to other environments with similar results, it doesn't count. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6159908906941838, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1419.9999999999998 | vluzko | 1719776914224 | 0 | 21 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1cb09efba433", "prob": 0.014235569043758065, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.07912297044708691, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.478994882367537, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QuT17BDLUr9XczIOeWpU", "createdTime": 1652111886767, "probChanges": {"day": -0.99220294... | 18 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440267}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681609657959}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ancient-markets"] | 1719776911093 | 1701291438575 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011077358496001423 | S9hHsLVmXLVYsjzLl9qq | {"NO": 104.97852506295952, "YES": 1.2969664477822862} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-as-yes | 5 | Will I resolve this question as "YES?" | 1652114105304 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693663 | True | play | YES | public | 1652113983491 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285829, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476382, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285829} | 0 | 1652114105304 | 100.12884962224285 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1652114013778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652114012322 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011077358496001423 | m94aorjJmWqhm414LZfV | {"NO": 104.97852506295952, "YES": 1.2969664477822862} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes | 5 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652114249071 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693663 | True | play | YES | public | 1652114233663 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285829, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476382, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285829} | 0 | 1652114249071 | 100.12884962224285 | unit_24601 | 1652114242169 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652114240859 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011077358496001423 | Eiup5PNKRYv3o4RWYhVW | {"NO": 104.97852506295952, "YES": 1.2969664477822862} | 1 | will-this-resolve-yes | 5 | Will this resolve "YES?" | 1652114359398 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693663 | True | play | YES | public | 1652114347619 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285829, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476382, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285829} | 0 | 1652114359398 | 100.12884962224285 | SayJarva | 1652114356046 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652114354632 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43289703875663277 | 5eScCgSH4bQ08gm6btwT | {"NO": 141.32871142403664, "YES": 316.4225819483777} | 0 | will-over-25-of-participants-in-the | 1451.2757072321242 | Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 25 lose more that 20lbs over 4 weeks? | 1657537200000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7202789774305756 | True | play | NO | public | 1652121598487 | Jonathan Nankivell | On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.429081502547586, "platformFee": 3.96797500084673, "liquidityFee": 23.807850005080375} | 0 | 1657831585454 | 232.5368224797221 | JonathanNankivell | 1657526810539 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522770}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537389}] | ["researchbet", "science-default"] | 0.5 | 1657526810382 | 1653689649095 | 0.2542578279355894 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | DNNaWJyLHW9F0PtNlDv3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9 | will-our-new-acausal-moving-average | 0 | Will our new acausal moving average Pareto-dominate the old causal one? | 1652770740000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652121682797 | Daniel Reeves | See https://github.com/beeminder/road/issues/152 for a bunch of before/after shots. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661278554562 | 100 | dreev | 1652695749983 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664382980881}] | ["beeminder"] | 0.5 | 1652695744914 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h3EFwjB3N7tfl8YxqPBR | who-will-be-the-leader-of-the-labou | 763.328527912311 | Who will be the leader of the Labour party going into the next UK general election after 2019? | 1720221605707 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 75a261522eee | public | 1652126539384 | Tetra | This resolves as the leader of the Labour party on the day of the next UK general election, currently scheduled for 24 January 2025 at the latest. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720221605707 | 459.99999999999994 | Tetraspace | 1720221605707 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "162af1c46188", "prob": 0.029657805995571582, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5036825955900116, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.479454851098392, "textFts": "", "contractId": "h3EFwjB3N7tfl8YxqPBR", "resolverId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "createdTime": 165... | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499938}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031691688}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 1682498639389 | {"75a261522eee": 100} | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5079485238455713 | qPgFadXkBqQhQnxE1ZaP | {"NO": 130, "YES": 110.90909090909088} | 0.5475113122171944 | if-wes-streeting-is-the-leader-of-t | 10 | If Wes Streeting is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election after 2019, will the Labour Party win? | 1720166189818 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652127150786 | Tetra | Wes Streeting is currently Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care. In April 2022, he defended Keir Starmer over allegations of breaking lockdown rules which Starmer has vowed to resign about if he is fined: [ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61377426 ].
This resolves N/A if Wes Streeting is not the... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720166189818 | 120 | Tetraspace | 1720166189818 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506393}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031688725}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 0.5 | 1680738268260 | 0.55 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8165974627938 | 5Lmvzzf1aQCkKaGHOMVY | {"NO": 1261.527772421641, "YES": 132.43351418255827} | 1 | will-pradyuprasad-have-5000-followe | 2614.6177944924034 | Will @PradyuPrasad have 5000+ followers by the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9931838989790096 | True | play | YES | public | 1652128797385 | Jake | He's currently (2022-05-09) at 2 789 followers - https://twitter.com/PradyuPrasad | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.793530961069633, "platformFee": 0.29892182684493895, "liquidityFee": 1.793530961069633} | 0 | 1672932365788 | 221.79353096106962 | jknowak | 1672932400724 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.66 | 1671496907351 | 1672932391993 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4ICptFAvXT1k7polDvek | what-movie-will-be-watched-tonight | 205 | What movie will be watched tonight as part of EA Bahamas movie night? | 1652147940000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.832896892548729 | True | play | 02aee278c657 | public | 1652129991441 | James | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.8, "platformFee": 1.7, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652156340089 | 459.99999999999994 | JamesGrugett | 1652147471607 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d5cf44feb55e", "prob": 0.2379535990481856, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.916908446823713, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.366399300952935, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4ICptFAvXT1k7polDvek", "createdTime": 1652129991512, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1652147470278 | 1652132872128 | {"02aee278c657": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002020839985534 | CfvVmQKzKlgLeKuhZKu0 | {"NO": 114.93301455558432, "YES": 88.42097664630714} | 0.5653855517503484 | will-i-meet-the-manifold-markets-te | 15 | Will I meet the Manifold Markets team again? | 1652759940000 | 6VMjWQhvVaZb897RQDLMEb5QEZG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7651988261908347 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652138334643 | Paul Zimmer-Harwood | Great to meet you, let me know when any if you come to the UK (:
Until then much success and best wishes!
May 9, 7:18pm: * -if -> of | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702108528689 | 100.40191266649398 | PaulZimmerHarwood | 1702108525772 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwwocLXgbiPhh8XhTpOPWxy4eJdLWXDPthyFL-J=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 1652187922291 | 1702108525084 | 0.57 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30531975809942924 | XVtcU7Wp1p7Ms3rpWlwo | {"NO": 191.57377457979146, "YES": 10001.872099703773} | 0 | will-the-supreme-court-leakers-iden | 25448.63589157841 | Will the Supreme Court leaker's identify be known by 2023? | 1672646340000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3899937222354488 | True | play | NO | public | 1652138651583 | Scott Alexander | This market resolves to YES if, at some point on or before 1/1/23, the identity of the person who leaked the draft SCOTUS abortion decision is known with high confidence. For example, if a major news source confidently the identity as fact, or if the leaker admits it, or if the Supreme Court takes action against someon... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 154.6156959886458, "platformFee": 12.40719449837725, "liquidityFee": 74.44316699026346} | 0 | 1673118373790 | 800.0492841548294 | ScottAlexander | 1674162255526 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 96 | 0 | 2 | 90 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428106}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491399}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL... | ["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus"] | 0.5 | 1672640637751 | 1674162251549 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1549789082299014 | 0661R5puUdQvnsGzEjPA | {"NO": 951.0038339183312, "YES": 1258.4937803114856} | 0.12172179492871918 | will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz | 2310.271273339467 | Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? | 1809932340000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.860364660167647 | False | basic | public | 1652138922011 | Scott Alexander | This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.753504635825655, "platformFee": 1.0885976898507197, "liquidityFee": 3.5257315220509344} | 0 | 1000 | ScottAlexander | 1716687068565 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 4 | 74 | 0 | 51 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529466673}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864138}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.15 | 1716687064877 | 1691899885179 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10527798878119397 | gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3 | {"NO": 1006.8275204399172, "YES": 874.0729534943968} | 0.11935914119710478 | will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning | 2309.99861665367 | Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years? | 1809932340000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.107609320621002 | False | basic | public | 1652139059973 | Scott Alexander | This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.007031598523529414} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.1884502743668675, "platformFee": 1.3435905488682685, "liquidityFee": 2.5795674093496728} | 0 | 1000 | ScottAlexander | 1718795833928 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 71 | 0 | 44 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499618}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.05 | 1718795830860 | 1704768916896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7657181465704842 | IJilwdlpGe27QLGsNPie | {"NO": 20399.088061510345, "YES": 785.3628608447962} | 1 | will-joe-biden-run-for-president-in | 42717.16060221651 | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024? | 1682423950773 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5179570735452006 | True | basic | YES | public | 1652140693443 | N.C. Young |
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.9505755520995836, "platformFee": 0.31250565858635543, "liquidityFee": 1.8750339515181327} | 0 | 1682423950773 | 1701.8750339515182 | NcyRocks | 1710456557500 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 0 | 108 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.9 | 1682422780636 | 1682422674339 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31078033011831296 | qHdLNY8LHHA5IVVK8ian | {"NO": 58.94406150772328, "YES": 488.45243385879127} | 0 | will-twitter-ban-pornography-by-the | 369 | Will Twitter ban pornography by the end of 2022? | 1665979140000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4620865246127384 | True | play | NO | public | 1652144833424 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if Twitter takes meaningful new action (whether purely de facto or purely de jure, or both) against pornography on its platform by the end of the year. It resolves to No if it does not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.286500883270347, "platformFee": 0.34778694841246804, "liquidityFee": 2.0867216904748083} | 0 | 1682523880883 | 122.08672169047479 | EnopoletusHarding | 1682519268518 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 18 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454473}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["technology-default", "internet"] | 0.4 | 1665890335715 | 1682519263167 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.537558746136585 | rIR6mWqaO9xKLifr6cLL | {"NO": 1599.9495084142443, "YES": 16.59976484963819} | 1 | will-bitcoins-price-fall-below-25k | 2754.865807790558 | Will Bitcoin's price fall below $25k for at least one day in 2022? | 1655299026599 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.32814623275538 | True | play | YES | public | 1652144899261 | Ben | Using data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
Resolves YES if there is a single day in 2022 where the "High" price for BTC is <$25,000. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.735447238692483, "platformFee": 3.2892412064487466, "liquidityFee": 19.735447238692483} | 0 | 1655299026599 | 119.73544723869244 | bcongdon | 1655298958786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 0.5 | 1655298929711 | 1655298954587 | 0.9743164185927123 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5956698146591359 | y9YYaHHGCA1VSE8r2XGv | {"NO": 5.464946036000924, "YES": 790.3948164540492} | 0 | will-pear-get-back-with-a-decision | 799 | Will Pear get back with a decision before 5/13 at 11:59PM? | 1652667427077 | 8jQLZmq7VRYYzFRqZ8uR7IbRXnr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.263878182816976 | True | play | NO | public | 1652145232749 | Nahom Yimam | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.523964073052428, "platformFee": 0.7539940121754046, "liquidityFee": 4.523964073052428} | 0 | 1652667427077 | 104.52396407305243 | NahomYimam | 1652651033176 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhODowI_ts3gj0aLEtXM2lv1J40iTbgiF91QlY8kkLezcbrs2_uJHtRk1a4fCrf3WLHmXOVOzDQqOV-0LOPXYzeSXfaSuhFKcc5hkV-iTc2jwcSl6T8JnLW0BpXS7rNzQEU11P5bm1GRptfLOjNsvcBdKcW-ZyeG2Xbu0zpraZQVIt4SMRHtOsBNepRqNUdnVewnE8lgsewDbBw7nlkJpKaSHm_NT2laMRtDtrAV5xUgtimSAF21JPbFlIs66jWaCxg3lTKVcOwIMydmOSRnfB... | 7 | 0 | 0.62 | 1652651031839 | 0.010083465134091207 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9889226415039984 | T9cusYQO0evITt3PSYQZ | {"NO": 1.2969664477822862, "YES": 104.97852506295952} | 0 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes | 5 | Will I resolve this question “YES?” | 1652146935114 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693649 | True | play | NO | public | 1652146918120 | Peter Berggren | My whims are unpredictable. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285823, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476372, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285823} | 0 | 1652146935114 | 100.12884962224285 | PeterBerggren | 1652146925073 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652146924855 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011077358496001423 | 4UKzmfg63X1xI6oM0Eu8 | {"NO": 104.97852506295952, "YES": 1.2969664477822862} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-88473d799073 | 5 | Will I resolve this question “YES?” | 1652147001810 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693663 | True | play | YES | public | 1652146989256 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285829, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476382, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285829} | 0 | 1652147001810 | 100.12884962224285 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1652146997490 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652146996234 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011077358496001423 | jX7NZ9bqu6sLN0DemiLF | {"NO": 104.97852506295952, "YES": 1.2969664477822862} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-93d7bc825d31 | 5 | Will I resolve this question “YES?” | 1652147069008 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693663 | True | play | YES | public | 1652147047547 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285829, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476382, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285829} | 0 | 1652147069008 | 100.12884962224285 | unit_24601 | 1652147059432 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652147058041 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9889226415039984 | PpbYchIlYnTkqHvEl5qw | {"NO": 1.2969664477822862, "YES": 104.97852506295952} | 0 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-63b49d030b75 | 5 | Will I resolve this question “YES?” | 1652147143448 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.798134540693649 | True | play | NO | public | 1652147124684 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12884962224285823, "platformFee": 0.021474937040476372, "liquidityFee": 0.12884962224285823} | 0 | 1652147143448 | 100.12884962224285 | SayJarva | 1652147132756 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652147132585 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6676298892600432 | Sp23XqWylFZY4NUSNQYe | {"NO": 0.597688509365069, "YES": 1099.990278489507} | 0 | 24-hour-rug-installation | 1000 | 24 Hour Rug Installation 🕛 | 1652155479539 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.150676821836634 | True | play | NO | public | 1652148723416 | Undox | Opposite of a rug pull. I will use my free market to resolve what is least in the market maker's favour. You figure out the game theory. I might need math help from @Gurkenglas if people start selling their NO or YES for profit before close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05832906295773816, "platformFee": 0.00972151049295636, "liquidityFee": 0.05832906295773816} | 0 | 1652155479539 | 100.05832906295774 | Undox | 1653089044978 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.69 | 1652155474033 | 1653089041889 | 0.69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20264092587560778 | Z7vCuUfZQSuIUusHfkBp | {"NO": 82.1341560065906, "YES": 323.8026497978615} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-use-headset-contr | 386 | Will I be able to use headset controls to control Android Select to Speak (TTS) functionality? | 1653787792215 | Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.267584328874106 | True | play | NO | public | 1652150011884 | Vlad Sitalo | The problem is describe in detail in https://android.stackexchange.com/questions/246593/control-playback-using-headset-media-buttons-when-using-android-select-to-speak
The question resolves to yes if there is an accepted answer for the linked StackExchange answer in 2 weeks.
(That is - I find a way to control Androi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.262560863618461, "platformFee": 0.7104268106030768, "liquidityFee": 4.262560863618461} | 0 | 1653787792215 | 104.26256086361846 | vlad | 1653787652942 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450586}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.2 | 1653787651681 | 0.09478961852144499 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3052098528607241 | SWEme6S2OR4OAWM2pslU | {"NO": 144.10160501017944, "YES": 403.71840621743286} | 0 | will-my-five-year-old-save-up-to-bu | 461.66000934900984 | Will my five year old save up to buy a video game in the next six months? | 1668067140000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.045409892083141 | True | play | NO | public | 1652150237396 | Alicorn | She has expressed some interest in doing so and specifically seems to want Wrath of the Righteous, and has a variety of ways of making money (on top of her allowance), but usually impulsively spends money as fast as she acquires it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3752795729033247, "platformFee": 0.3958799288172208, "liquidityFee": 2.3752795729033247} | 0 | 1668103666107 | 202.3752795729033 | Alicorn | 1668063577325 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0.4 | 1668063577142 | 1662702382620 | 0.13554339607015486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | qEDKuGVQoz0KLguBrzFA | {"NO": 109.99928672359447, "YES": 0.016608441545895268} | 1 | free-market-9229f512c91e | 10 | Free Market | 1652153059517 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.613774076056245 | True | play | YES | public | 1652153043387 | Jenny | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1652153059517 | 100.00427965843322 | Jenny | 1652153052874 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652153051635 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03394804637243212 | I6SdBt7xFcjazj5TSUCa | {"NO": 82.62148955995208, "YES": 82.62148955995212} | 1 | will-the-probability-of-this-market | 169.3769486401943 | Will the probability of this market resolving to YES rise above 90% by May 17th? | 1652158498445 | z8RRHAzVe5bYW4Y8F34IEYUBGVq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.46270891843227 | True | play | YES | public | 1652153818874 | Frogs | This market resolves to YES if at any point before May 17th, 2022, its probability rises to or above 90%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.009370799121464036, "platformFee": 0.0015617998535773392, "liquidityFee": 0.009370799121464036} | 0 | 1652158498445 | 100.00937079912146 | Frogs | 1652158493022 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GircJifFYjj9y9-1ss8GMLZIrslp4w5aFD3i-8FMg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652158492804 | 1652158384258 | 0.9875396859403174 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8274303710870539 | 126lM0zmrovjdBX9sPcg | {"NO": 1543.7029948264835, "YES": 114.2115599977584} | 1 | will-usdc-depeg-before-may-9-2023 | 6985.63083151995 | Will USDC depeg before May 9 2023? | 1678531362439 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7202517476848302 | True | play | YES | public | 1652158028057 | Bolton Bailey | This market resolves to "YES" if the price of USDC, as given by https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/, drops below $0.90 at any time before May 9 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9187202272441837, "platformFee": 0.10906197563472002, "liquidityFee": 0.6543718538083201} | 0 | 1678531362439 | 700.6543718538082 | BoltonBailey | 1678524872682 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441250}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448970917}, {"name": "USDC", "slug": "usdc", "userId": "Zus... | ["crypto-prices", "stablecoins", "usdc"] | 0.21 | 1678524872508 | 1678518338246 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6836848346930438 | AQZwx0IyMHJOLBEZ9BEc | {"NO": 6164.754961904864, "YES": 235.37827425389406} | 1 | will-the-ukraine-take-back-kherson | 31576.67074693804 | Will the Ukraine take back Kherson anytime before the end of 2022? | 1668745324401 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1428788493374165 | True | basic | YES | public | 1652160018771 | Stochastic Cockatoo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7477863655399414, "platformFee": 0.08430801202977889, "liquidityFee": 0.5058480721786733} | 0 | 1668745324401 | 1060.5058480721787 | StochasticParrot | 1668696611430 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 0 | 78 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662853349920}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1661190772135}, {"name": "Wars", "slu... | ["wars", "world-default", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.27 | 1668696611212 | 1668610747343 | False | 0.9826415969705422 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45493805990626296 | AErBtgtUX8K20WClGm5d | {"NO": 2579.538478059246, "YES": 29.639012274227014} | 1 | will-i-release-a-new-game-by-the-en | 3328.172299881924 | Will I release a new game by the end of 2023? | 1661838925346 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.790932272243124 | True | play | YES | public | 1652160970386 | SneakySly | This market resolves to NO, if by the end of 2023 I have not released a new game. It resolves YES if I do release a new game.
Releasing a game into Early Access on steam **counts** as releasing a game and will receive a YES resolution.
My previous game Slay The Spire took about 2.5 years before we launched it into ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.955127198282696, "platformFee": 3.28125600434214, "liquidityFee": 19.687536026052836} | 0 | 1661838925346 | 319.68753602605284 | SneakySly | 1697405675696 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 0.5 | 1661838820502 | 1697405675041 | 0.8727405461772555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01632408419419578 | QhVvWxNBBSsv2rHtZeaJ | {"NO": 144, "YES": 1.3159251466277053e-13} | 1 | test-18 | 44 | test 18 | 1652172228086 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59593101457845 | True | play | YES | public | 1652172183774 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14, "platformFee": 8.597567102697212e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14} | 0 | 1652172228086 | 100.00000000000006 | Electricitypipe | 1652172220809 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652172215338 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7500304683899426 | kb5dlYVrCa6kKCqiNj4w | {"NO": 367.5690616499201, "YES": 65.03678078579759} | 1 | will-global-venture-funding-be-lowe | 490 | Will global venture funding be lower in Q2 2022 than in Q2 2021? | 1657835940000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.046150348850375 | True | play | YES | public | 1652184402271 | Magnus Hambleton | Trading closes two weeks after the end of Q2. Market will resolve once reliable aggregate data is available. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.559310457855337, "platformFee": 0.02269362230946511, "liquidityFee": 0.13616173385679065} | 0 | 1658679236651 | 100.1361617338568 | Mag | 1658679262752 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1657832241375 | 1658679260487 | 0.9443141619611819 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3202578722937305 | GpJ6NaXHr78ahh4CGIqj | {"NO": 166.8927174720853, "YES": 53.345240681374534} | 1 | will-twitter-have-over-300-monthly | 48.98090876753827 | Will Twitter have over 300M monthly active users in 2023? | 1680321540000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0193859281976403 | True | play | YES | public | 1652186164062 | Sarah | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6437174937146324, "platformFee": 0.10728624895243873, "liquidityFee": 0.6437174937146324} | 0 | 1701972105885 | 120.64371749371463 | SarahC | 1701972099440 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 51 | 6 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133009}] | ["internet"] | 0.25 | 1680291493420 | 1701972098706 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.718583968318161 | RMdvjLrl4QzE5QAQV3z3 | {"NO": 373.1330422717163, "YES": 117.75926240607113} | 1 | will-my-son-read-his-first-word-by | 476.2131413308894 | Will my son read his first word by his 5th birthday? | 1677733140000 | y4rCiP5HigO4t3nXy491EwUi1rl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.514910077852973 | True | play | YES | public | 1652186287786 | Sarah | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0028364456162793, "platformFee": 0.3577170503780487, "liquidityFee": 2.146302302268292} | 0 | 1678722757764 | 182.14630230226828 | SarahC | 1678726467837 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMKgPBZ9LLUWckr0VAF64T6ATtBRXhx1G5PXYxYA=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0.5 | 1677731294545 | 1678726464458 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jkxSVbL6xOykd3Kukx3P | who-will-own-manifold-at-the-end-of | 273.41262141829213 | Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024? | 1735654500000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652189389435 | Austin | I'll resolve this market to the proportional equity distribution in our C Corporation at the end of 2024.
FWIW Manifold's current cap table, at a $22M valuation, looks like:
~16% to all investors (see http://bit.ly/manifold-seed )
~16.8% to the employee option pool
~22.4% to each founder (Austin, Stephen, James) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.25650643122638567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 560.0000000000001 | Austin | 1719884311770 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 13 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2d05310aca5a", "prob": 0.1554307003512003, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.800342799675854, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.08379263064349, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jkxSVbL6xOykd3Kukx3P", "createdTime": 1652189389534, "probChanges": {"day": -2.775557561562... | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1682288104914}] | ["manifold-business-future"] | 1719884308650 | 1652198285941 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NhTUxJDvW0OaFyJmBBUc | who-will-be-the-democratic-party-no | 11225.261285540266 | Who will be the Democratic Party nominee for president in 2024? | 1722398400000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1652191005090 | Brian T. Edwards | Answer depends largely on whether or not you think Joe Biden is the likely nominee. As of today nobody is challenging Biden, nor has he officially announced he is running for reelection, but there are clear divisions within the party emerging following the release of the Alito abortion opinion. Likely to be noise aroun... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.27744965588276, "platformFee": 0.3720900567797946, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20.906287333442243 | 1240.0000000000005 | BTE | 1720229164214 | 0 | 65 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f6b3243c9f9b", "prob": 0.010000000000000023, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.016963704619337605, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.679406757314419, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NhTUxJDvW0OaFyJmBBUc", "createdTime": 1652191005198, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03902670... | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856969}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580921}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 1720229161038 | 1686700234132 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.598016873111026 | Q0qpByPL5kbEKM1oJElA | {"NO": 3376.47097100959, "YES": 7364.5178364359635} | 0 | will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-163d54309e43 | 5458.177434174722 | Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 30 lose more that 20lbs over 4 weeks? | 1657537200000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.0823574777187398 | True | basic | NO | public | 1652192548263 | Jonathan Nankivell | On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 149.27508836092102, "platformFee": 23.569618515566933, "liquidityFee": 141.41771109340164} | 0 | 1657831627326 | 5241.4177110934 | JonathanNankivell | 1657526812394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528183}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537891}] | ["researchbet", "science-default"] | 0.6 | 1657526809226 | 1653689690237 | 0.40549184920455794 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42785490245813657 | GVGbYLnDRmHX2M7Pcj79 | {"NO": 153.8748469627565, "YES": 61.19988468100616} | 0 | will-i-be-satisfied-with-how-i-spen-daf587cce881 | 579 | Will I be satisfied with how I spend my time on Tuesday, May 10th? | 1652234400000 | w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.863012905385432 | True | play | NO | public | 1652194605120 | tenadome | This resolves YES if I achieve the following between 10:00 AM and 9:00 PM CDT today.
1. Spend at least 180 minutes on things that I strongly endorse (not including exercise).
2. Spend at most 60 minutes on things that I strongly disapprove of.
3. Check in with the # of productive vs. unproductive minutes at least once ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.21527701049524, "platformFee": 0.5358795017492066, "liquidityFee": 3.21527701049524} | 0 | 1652234618533 | 103.21527701049526 | nmehndir | 1652216716752 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.4 | 1652216715380 | 1652197805226 | 0.6528036179893448 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2982668194604269 | YkNpD9AU70iKnEcj0UFw | {"NO": 854.3548453937686, "YES": 116.4747378568882} | 0 | will-i-spend-more-than-3-weeks-in-t | 425.2174743864343 | Will I spend more than 3 weeks in the Bahamas in Q4 2022? | 1652846340000 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2543480246363843 | True | play | NO | public | 1652195759276 | @misha | I will leave the Bahamas in late July when the FTX fellowship will end. Will I return? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.976622660825088, "platformFee": 1.1627704434708477, "liquidityFee": 6.976622660825088} | 0 | 1671816841942 | 556.9766226608251 | misha | 1652658618452 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 1652658616627 | 1652197728156 | 0.76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3050315155900797 | xPOAPDKf4AGnqGYBZmQ3 | {"NO": 96.81221383214888, "YES": 131.0661244986166} | 0 | will-keir-starmer-be-charged-by-the | 158 | Will Keir Starmer be charged by the Durham police relating to #Beergate? | 1657280634581 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1417805315987875 | True | play | NO | public | 1652197008646 | Nathan Young | If the Police don't respond before 1st August, all money will be returned. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.0774537931417525, "platformFee": 0.5176620124790308, "liquidityFee": 3.1059720748741846} | 0 | 1657280634581 | 103.1059720748742 | NathanpmYoung | 1657280814270 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3 | 1656722433471 | 1657280810780 | 0.24482974102460628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013424157993540319 | Ezc3MO8F9mdCrtBP8H19 | {"NO": 97.7451781857215, "YES": 97.7451781857215} | 0 | will-someone-point-out-a-bug-in-my | 22.254108537872973 | Will someone point out a bug in my PR for the ROME language model tracing/editing project by July 1st? | 1656745140000 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.30469203424044 | True | play | NO | public | 1652198617362 | Nathan | https://github.com/kmeng01/rome/pull/9 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004279658433220601, "platformFee": 0.0007132764055367668, "liquidityFee": 0.004279658433220601} | 0 | 1659624371220 | 100.00427965843322 | NathanHelmBurger | 1654835961521 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1654835960191 | 0.013424157993540319 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34603389834968395 | dpOiLTlCJtuw1rQux66S | {"NO": 38.405658712578415, "YES": 962.8324453781647} | 0 | will-terrausd-ust-repeg-to-usd-befo | 1542.6555017258781 | Will TerraUSD (UST) repeg to USD before August '22? | 1659326340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.855892005465883 | True | play | NO | public | 1652199050073 | Manifold | Yesterday UST, a stable coin, depegged from the USD plummenting all the way to 0.67USD. It has decoupled from the USD before but not to this extent.
This will resolve yes if it repegs at any point before August. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.57643910459587, "platformFee": 1.4294065174326458, "liquidityFee": 8.57643910459587} | 0 | 1661779084360 | 108.57643910459585 | Manifold | 1654652123789 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [] | [] | 0.35 | 1654652120308 | 1653769225873 | 0.020669836479798503 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AUnYnpPhO3rNsTjC8Ug1 | what-will-be-the-subject-of-my-next | 124 | What will be the subject of my next short film? | 1652857140000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.952739542578979 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652199300792 | Rachel Shu | 100% fishing for ideas | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1690348687518 | 340 | noumena | 1652728314345 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5d5181fd9f47", "prob": 0.6503642039542143, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.864523842728715, "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.344768017850956, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AUnYnpPhO3rNsTjC8Ug1", "createdTime": 1652199300869, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 4 | 1652728313039 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.407914078796047 | CYn4tFzW3rbO6h7ggRSV | {"NO": 1888.3238316749319, "YES": 598.7041603152373} | 0.6848350957412813 | universal-basic-income-should-exist | 1698.4848285821588 | Universal Basic Income should exist in the US. | 1653451140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.38737716337618966 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1652200273427 | Manifold | Another "debate" topic similar to this: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/plastic-straws-should-be-banned
Instead of defining what exactly universal basic income would entail in the US for this argument, I'm going to let you present what "level" you want to argue for/against and hopefully it is reflected in the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.154112415539934, "platformFee": 6.859018735923323, "liquidityFee": 41.154112415539934} | 0 | 1654017008073 | 1141.1541124155406 | Manifold | 1653444949079 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566503}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477427}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8N... | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "selfresolving"] | 0.4 | 1653444947512 | 1653370321765 | 0.6848350957412813 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TRT1mxj4og7yOsGQuJFi | what-is-joels-myers-briggs-personal | 11073.454792866689 | What is Joel's Myers Briggs personality type? | 1652302651232 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619819753643208 | True | play | 68e0944abcf8 | public | 1652201073374 | James | We will have him take the test to resolve this! | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.535528739499277, "platformFee": 4.633882184874819, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652302651232 | 500.00000000000006 | JamesGrugett | 1652302591768 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8c7183624c3b", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TRT1mxj4og7yOsGQuJFi", "createdTime": 1652201073444, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ... | 1652301958565 | 1652302590325 | {"68e0944abcf8": 100} | True |
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