CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Google's current policy is that employees must work from the office at least 3 days a week. (Employees were able to request deferrals, and fully remote workers are exempt, but this is the general policy that applies to most employees.) Resolves YES if most US employees continue to have to work from the office at least...

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Context: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/170 This is a change we've been considering for quite a while. The biggest reason not to do it, IMO, is that our UI made an implicit promise that your trades would be anonymized when it said "A trader bought..." instead of "Eva bought..." I think this UI was ...

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Our current slogan "A market for every question," does an okay job at describing what Manifold Markets 'is' but doesn't encapsulate what we want to achieve with our markets and users. As a fast growing team with a rapidly developing product we are still figuring out exactly what our mission statement and main prioriti...

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Results come out in July. I'm taking 3 AP tests—AP Human Geography, AP Biology, and AP World History this year. I'm highly confident that I'll get a 5 on the AP Human Geo test, but Bio and World are substantially more on the edge. On practice tests, I've gotten (extremely close) 5s on both Bio and World, but I assign a...

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NASA's InSight mission is a robotic lander designed to study the deep interior of Mars with a variety of tools. It was manufactured by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and most of its scientific instruments were built by European agencies. The mission launched on 5 Ma...

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Here are our notes so far: http://doc.bmndr.co/predict

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More specifically: A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery) B) least 20% of randos know what they are

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A topical example: I worry that <political party> might pass a federal law <legalizing/banning> abortion in the next five years. I bet on the appropriate market: https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz Then I...

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This market resolves to Yes if South Korea has a second wave of COVID in 2022 with at least a third as many cases as in the first wave. It resolves to No if it does not.

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Bolton Bailey

In 2018, Scott Alexander wrote the post "Five More Years" on the Slate Star Codex Blog https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/15/five-more-years/, in which he made "predictions to be graded on 2/15/2023". Will the account ACX Bot make prediction markets for those predictions (or at least for most of those predictions for w...

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Litestream popped up on my radar again after [1] made the rounds -- it's a replication layer for sqlite that lets you replicate data to S3/GCS/etc. I've been aware of Litestream since at least May, 2021 ([2]), and it's been on my shortlist of projects to take for a spin. Resolves to YES if I build "something" using Li...

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Self-explanatory. If somehow there's ambiguity, consensus from two reliable and independent sources resolve this market.

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Devansh

1652235907389

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

0

0.45

KLZtlO5CYk2rlHKMDoqf

which-ux-engineerdesigners-will-man

376.0144869975266

Which UX Engineer/Designer(s) will Manifold offer work trials to in the next 2 months?

1657511940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.770963167861798

True

play

a1f5db68bca4

public

1652237101089

Austin

Manifold has been looking to bring on an amazing UI/UX Engineer or Designer. It's a pretty fuzzy role, but basically: someone who can make Manifold feel polished, delightful, beautiful, juicy. Ideally someone who can implement the changes in our website directly, but that's not a hard requirement. Signs a person would...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.04, "platformFee": 2.26, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657578814219

360

Austin

1656960840639

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "45bd249237fd", "prob": 0.1141455775549003, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.736348018781405, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.51831923735832, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KLZtlO5CYk2rlHKMDoqf", "createdTime": 1652237101159, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

1656960839945

1652239175677

{"a1f5db68bca4": 100}

True

0.8778876903101898

aZMO05JeLXjuozmMLtv4

{"NO": 78.99755541936707, "YES": 412.2731199015926}

1

will-agrippa-and-sapphire-implement

1649.228532557278

Will Agrippa and Sapphire implement MVP of a Solana-based Manifold clone before end of May?

1653969540000

eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812

cpmm-1

0

2.7101912359988365

True

play

YES

public

1652237756167

Emmy

The bulk of labor started in May. MVP Features: market creation, browsing, entering and exiting positions, resolving markets, trading Not MVP: User profiles, social features (commenting and such), historical data visualizations No other developers will be hired or contracted.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.74503547145543, "platformFee": 3.124172578575906, "liquidityFee": 18.74503547145543}

0

1654059251955

318.74503547145537

emmy

1654059667179

0

https://firebasestorage.…c8a-895ec7e46b2e

13

0

1

0.88

1653967921128

1654059665433

0.5793993959646305

1g7C4FJrs0RK0dSvkOq6

what-will-be-the-name-of-the-manifo

310.5527364296055

What will be the name of the Manifold-like prediction market software for Solana, which Sapphire and Agrippa are building, in June?

1654919940000

eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7732038601808435

True

play

50ec0bff886d

public

1652238744408

Emmy

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.41789054281578, "platformFee": 2.104472635703945, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654973597727

600

emmy

1654905173165

0

https://firebasestorage.…c8a-895ec7e46b2e

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "76b7f10aa6ac", "prob": 0.11772807313019763, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8704488556997143, "userId": "eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.005727172589772, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1g7C4FJrs0RK0dSvkOq6", "createdTime": 1652238744612, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904796}]

["naming-suggestions"]

1654905171889

1654210219418

{"50ec0bff886d": 100}

True

0.2224746625826466

hNgSQsDh9DuJyyFZyELV

{"NO": 855.9537481401778, "YES": 4814.296491004527}

0

will-i-aella-find-someone-new-to-se

18340.760162920535

Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?

1672463238837

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

0.4875648734540685

True

basic

NO

public

1652241682573

Aella

If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2022, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2022 for this market to resolve Y...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 119.76730613989989, "platformFee": 15.964425354502508, "liquidityFee": 95.78655212701503}

0

1672463238837

1298.6719467918929

Aella

1672600497747

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

113

0

105

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664925924557}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822549}]

["dating", "sex-and-love"]

0.2

1672387284258

1672600531934

0.05

0.6989447999694065

i4gSwU6uiu7DkaXiCTxv

{"NO": 1008.4323493227114, "YES": 43.11205919192466}

1

will-the-golden-state-warriors-beat

1146.5631575990024

Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2022 NBA Playoffs?

1652503166751

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

4.120674307461481

True

play

YES

public

1652242279885

Richard

Resolves to YES if ESPN.com and NBA.com report that the Warriors won the 2nd round series.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.647266651104806, "platformFee": 0.9412111085174677, "liquidityFee": 5.647266651104806}

0

1652503166751

105.6472666511048

Richard

1652503014732

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

7

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406241}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181994122}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

0.69

1652503013465

False

0.8159066241050662

0.4743267447736105

FvGBrGeoF7LBnTyHCNk6

{"NO": 466.8236257430415, "YES": 21.66148581699069}

1

will-the-probability-of-resolution

618

Will the probability of resolution on this question exceed 75% at one point and fall below 25% at another point by June 1, 2022?

1652248591482

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

3.692054963256434

True

play

YES

public

1652247224460

Richard

This resolves to YES if the probability of YES on this market exceeds 75% at one point and falls below 25% at another point on or before June 1, 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.702776841313112, "platformFee": 0.783796140218852, "liquidityFee": 4.702776841313112}

0

1652248591482

104.70277684131312

Richard

1652248572741

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

2

0

0.46

1652248569719

0.46

0.5013303617791451

jDGICLX3nFBt6FKCH379

{"NO": 147.2173694833165, "YES": 71.68878705246487}

1

will-i-spend-at-least-10-on-manifol

57

Will I spend at least $10 on Manifold Dollars by the end of May 2022?

1652321209215

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

2.7853225889092332

True

play

YES

public

1652247567906

Richard

At the time of this writing (May 10), I have not yet purchased any Manifold Dollars.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3169515494516058, "platformFee": 0.21949192490860098, "liquidityFee": 1.3169515494516058}

0

1652321209215

101.3169515494516

Richard

1652321139904

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

5

0

0.5

1652321139778

1652305233299

0.5682269584385315

0.685512894564972

WPbmKfgBKLRCuMR3gum8

{"NO": 11.01889512123655, "YES": 321.4767176806286}

0

will-the-number-of-comments-on-this

562.4951611882141

Will the number of comments on this question exceed the number of bets on this question by June 1, 2022?

1652857140000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

4.231079248487918

True

play

NO

public

1652247929642

Richard

This resolves to YES if there are more comments than bets by EOD June 1, 2022. The counts are based on distinct comments and distinct bets, not on the # of people who comment or bet? May 10, 10:45pm: the description above should end with a period, not a question mark.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.684469917197621, "platformFee": 1.1140783195329398, "liquidityFee": 6.684469917197621}

0

1663706077206

106.68446991719772

Richard

1663706086389

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

8

0

1

11

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}]

["please-resolve"]

0.72

1652856788358

1663706085514

0.06951978973268937

0.5823684814992091

Na4FBhKK56DYWR2KhqsK

{"NO": 1308.8642499438563, "YES": 22.941444596717105}

1

will-at-least-25-different-people-c

3202.004141256358

Will at least 25 different people comment on this question by June 1, 2022?

1653930127615

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

4.146145049266372

True

play

YES

public

1652248939911

Richard

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.550221341504143, "platformFee": 2.258370223584024, "liquidityFee": 13.550221341504143}

0

1653930127615

113.55022134150414

Richard

1653930245545

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

28

0

0.52

1653929820453

1653930244146

0.8800589036502031

BmMxKvBNp6Os9YbRUFTd

what-roguelike-game-released-in-202

146.09463493590584

What Roguelike game released in 2022 and rated "Overwhelmingly Positive" will have the most Steam reviews by the end of 2023.

1672559940000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.943986635392999

True

play

66d1988c4335

public

1652251581203

SneakySly

This is an open ended prediction. The winning answer must be a Roguelike game released onto Steam in 2022, and be rated "Overwhelmingly Positive" by Steam users in the "All Reviews" section. The game with the highest number of reviews that meets this criteria will be the winner. List of games with the Roguelike tag o...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672607800194

340

SneakySly

1672607706225

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "173194dc3eb4", "prob": 0.6111550734510626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.985347334391356, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.07546553073167, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BmMxKvBNp6Os9YbRUFTd", "createdTime": 1652251581273, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

5

1653905183697

1672607704113

{"66d1988c4335": 100}

True

0.6502038112072867

xC2wn0RcwV6ozjg2nu1z

{"NO": 119.94217074236197, "YES": 91.65041964723653}

1

will-i-like-the-texture-of-any-of-t

20

Will I like the texture of any of the fabric samples from Spoonflower?

1652583630580

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

3.041479192529513

True

play

YES

public

1652253147650

Alicorn

I got a pack of all the kinds of fabric they sell in their Etsy shop and am hoping at least one is soft enough for me to want to make clothes out of it. Resolves YES if I buy some Spoonflower fabric and NO if I decide against (I already know I like a lot of their prints).

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.34697554582816154, "platformFee": 0.05782925763802693, "liquidityFee": 0.34697554582816154}

0

1652583630580

100.34697554582816

Alicorn

1652286138138

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

1

0

0.65

1652286136773

0.7086762012554384

0.24922263106725423

hRiHQhgxxo6oEpZ0MPc6

{"NO": 78.98268560834559, "YES": 216.8675925031702}

0

will-i-contract-covid19-if-i-travel

117

Will I contract Covid-19 if I travel to Wisconsin for 2-3 weeks in Sept 2022?

1664966877099

lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33

cpmm-1

0

3.7875208488530214

True

play

NO

public

1652254194541

Bjorn

I'm planning a trip to Wisconsin (from Asia) in September. This market is to assess my risk of testing positive while in the US and thus become unable to return to Asia in a timely manner. - This market resolves to "Yes" if I test positive for Covid-19 during or within one week following my planned travel to Wisconsin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.794444980978835, "platformFee": 0.13240749682980585, "liquidityFee": 0.794444980978835}

0

1664966877099

100.79444498097884

brp

1664966872338

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c

6

0

8

0.25

1664895688073

1664966866768

0.10785692863790203

0.23921356996797494

wk86MCINN6dGJS8ZspvA

{"NO": 136.3514118065103, "YES": 390.4662823987993}

0

will-m-be-redeemabletradeable-by-th

910.8774238402336

Will M$ be redeemable/tradeable by the end of the year?

1672549140000

z8RRHAzVe5bYW4Y8F34IEYUBGVq2

cpmm-1

0

2.599262427708581

True

play

NO

public

1652257183970

Frogs

This will instantly resolve to YES if before the end of 2022, there exists some mechanism to trade or redeem M$ for cash and/or crypto, either between users and MM or between users themselves.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4300660763467126, "platformFee": 0.40501101272445217, "liquidityFee": 2.4300660763467126}

0

1681356613917

202.4300660763467

Frogs

1681356682595

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GircJifFYjj9y9-1ss8GMLZIrslp4w5aFD3i-8FMg=s96-c

1

12

0

21

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665695095006}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1668527330326}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "mana"]

0.5

1672546238981

1681356679215

0.1

0.25559784660492124

dNKFQwcvj1UJUMdDAX0e

{"NO": 86.92495686634905, "YES": 822.0593311052696}

0

will-terrausd-ust-be-pegged-to-the

927.2639962704351

Will TerraUSD (UST) be pegged to the US Dollar in the end of May?

1653947940000

5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1

cpmm-1

0

3.1497868679422765

True

play

NO

public

1652257847609

Zhao Nan

Resolves YES if 1 UST is worth around 1 USD (say, no less than $0.99) over the entire day of May 31st (CEST) according to CoinGecko.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.060035745770324, "platformFee": 0.6766726242950537, "liquidityFee": 4.060035745770324}

0

1653981517904

154.06003574577036

ZhaoNan

1653764890493

0

https://firebasestorage.…351-437af0cb870e

7

0

1

0.33

1653764889043

0.035035025685013

0.01632408419419578

IXsRObrb5LKsiji2KUfL

{"NO": 144, "YES": 1.3159251466277053e-13}

1

test-314

44

test 3.14

1652260085857

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

9.59593101457845

True

play

YES

public

1652260050783

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14, "platformFee": 8.597567102697212e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14}

0

1652260085857

100.00000000000006

Electricitypipe

1652260083001

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.01

1652260081594

0.01

0.6440245412148558

ev594oiLcgGaw2HxPRhs

{"NO": 2693.5488562476044, "YES": 58.91835314463701}

1

will-terra-luna-be-below-1-on-20220

2736.4749425450923

Will Terra (LUNA) be below $1 on 2022-06-01

1654120740000

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-1

0

2.843979496398517

True

play

YES

public

1652262009814

Milli

This Market resolves to "YES" if Terra (LUNA) is worth below $1 according to CoinGecko on closing time. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.477261323221413, "platformFee": 3.0795435538702343, "liquidityFee": 18.477261323221413}

0

1654126028493

218.47726132322137

Milli

1653925180404

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4

8

0

1

0.5

1653917083027

1653925174961

0.9880539577746942

0.09372756798237754

8bI2j2k6gEOcBmjQzJX9

{"NO": 833.7508992558671, "YES": 2902.2794241062156}

0.02885297861064549

will-ireland-be-invaded-by-the-uk-b

4645.088079451771

Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections

1893456000000

V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2

cpmm-1

0

10.455066351390332

False

basic

public

1652264124721

Shiney

N/a if no Sinn Fein Taoiseach Yes if afterwards and before 2030 UK (or a successor state) launches a military campaign to occupy territory on the island of Ireland not currently within Northern Ireland. See this article for an argument that it may happen https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2022/0511/1297303-ireland-britain...

BINARY

{"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.051513610036398, "platformFee": 1.5809828319768948, "liquidityFee": 8.834282412225297}

0

1000

Shiney

1717404704081

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba5-2fe833234863

33

0

28

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473133}]

["politics-default"]

0.29

1715933659329

1717404702953

0.5030221343287355

LkD7ypQteCcmmjf8ahFQ

{"NO": 28.281299613013957, "YES": 369.87145461665364}

0

will-alexey-guzey-have-a-new-postes

403

Will Alexey Guzey have a new post/essay on his personal site in Q2 (April-June) 2022?

1656658740000

PgQVVYhLjnNVwkyjk32JvwxOGJ12

cpmm-1

0

3.4873987531757114

True

play

NO

public

1652273830752

Alexey Guzey

BINARY

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will-alexey-guzey-manage-to-remain

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Will Alexey Guzey manage to remain kind on Twitter in May 2022?

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Alexey Guzey

Resolution judged by Misha Yagudin (@misha) by reading my tweets for the month of May (including the deleted ones).

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guzey

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will-i-resolve-this-as-yes

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Will I resolve this as "YES?"

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1652278091028

Peter Berggren

My whims are unpredictable... and fast.

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PeterBerggren

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Will this question resolve "YES?"

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1652278129622

Law of Good Hearts

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PeterBerggrenf455

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will-this-question-resolve-yes-c4243e3d9b5d

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Will this question resolve "YES?"

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1652278177092

Hugh Mann

BINARY

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unit_24601

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will-this-question-resolve-yes-33a9a92105af

6

Will this question resolve "YES?"

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1652278216544

Say Jarva

BINARY

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SayJarva

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1652278222480

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will-the-new-york-yankees-win-the-a

609

Will the New York Yankees win the AL east division this year?

1664414820417

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

3.7344205180587213

True

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YES

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1652280015115

BCG

They are currently (May 11) four games ahead

BINARY

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BruceGrugett

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will-the-detroit-tigers-finish-last

759.8014834544783

Will the Detroit Tigers finish last in the AL central division this year?

1664769540000

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

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3.495606158036473

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1652280317217

BCG

They are currently (May 11) 1.5 games behind Kansas City.

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BruceGrugett

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will-democrats-pass-a-major-bill-wh

903.4994428326451

Will democrats pass a major bill while they have a trifecta?

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PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92

cpmm-1

0

3.979767095869855

True

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YES

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1652281466657

Oliver S

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must have >= 48 democrat votes in the senate. Major is defined somewhat loosely, but above $500 billion and gets a lot of press are two important factors. Starting from today so ARP and bipartisan infrastructure does not count. If they manage to ho...

BINARY

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OliverS

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will-the-phoenix-suns-beat-the-dall

396.8759315751057

Will the Phoenix Suns beat the Dallas Mavericks in the 2022 NBA Playoffs?

1652667119444

R3O7uqCsZMUVvhk9ymHHzzAttn63

cpmm-1

0

6.976281489729372

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NO

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1652281672119

lloydhavemercy

Resolves to YES if NBA.com reports that the Phoenix Suns beat the Dallas Mavericks in the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

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lloydhavemercy

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will-the-us-cede-sovereignty-on-pan

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Will the US cede sovereignty on pandemic response issues to the World Health Organization by the end of 2022?

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3.5725665832233675

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1652282027170

BCG

Such a treaty will be considered at next week’s 74th World Health Assembly.

BINARY

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year-and-quarter-civilization-7-is

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Year and Quarter Civilization 7 is released

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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1652282033013

Michael Wheatley

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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MichaelWheatley

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ANYONE

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i-will-sent-that-email-within-2-hou

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I will sent that email within 2 hours of creating this market

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9.492536220652514

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YES

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1652286046863

Account deletion requested

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Accountdeletionrequested

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will-ust-terra-stablecoin-regain-it

369.98000838963037

Will UST (Terra Stablecoin) regain its peg and stabilize before 2023?

1652936340000

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cpmm-1

0

3.375383085298473

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NO

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1652288076820

Lars Doucet

This market resolves to "YES" if before 2023 the UST/TerraUSD price as reported by coinmarketcap.com, is no more than $0.01 USD off of the target value of $1.00 USD, for a continuous period of three months or more, that time period terminating on January 1, 2022. If at any time the coin goes to zero before that, this m...

BINARY

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0

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LarsDoucet

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0.7118669770263716

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how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have

902.3548157529661

How many lovers will Sinclair have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)

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cpmm-1

0

1.6879760228684542

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MKT

public

1652288751086

Sinclair Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves PROB according to this formula:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2^(# gfs) = odds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": ", then convert odds to probability", "type": "text"}]},...

BINARY

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243.634669425092

Sinclair

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0

will-iuds-be-substantially-restrict

1336.7865887379712

Will IUDs be substantially restricted in any US state in 2022?

1672559940000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.362244746767084

True

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NO

public

1652289346099

Jack

If Roe v Wade is overturned, some states have laws that will take effect that prohibit the destruction of fertilized embryos. The language varies and the exact meaning is unclear. This may affect some types of contraception like IUDs and Plan B. Both work primarily by preventing fertilization. However, copper IUDs may ...

BINARY

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0

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0

1673016418248

141.46351173146462

jack

1672727553683

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will-gavin-spend-at-least-2-weeks-i

1192.394714565727

Will Gavin spend at least 2 weeks in the Bahamas before August?

1658057951277

zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1

cpmm-1

0

3.6691787069655364

True

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YES

public

1652290361487

@misha

Gavin was there for a while, left but promised to come back (assigning it 70%); will he?

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1658057951277

106.01704329220195

misha

1657956284850

0

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0.7

1657956283635

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1

will-joe-biden-test-positive-for-co

276.9099952068519

Will Joe Biden test positive for Covid in 2022?

1658416157262

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.6823527984344615

True

play

YES

public

1652292614525

Brian T. Edwards

This question resolves Yes if the White House reports the president had multiple positive PCR tests before midnight on 12/31/2022.

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1658416157262

103.62045952320493

BTE

1658416146659

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

8

0

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1

will-one-of-mcilroy-morikawa-rahm-s

52

Will one of McIlroy, Morikawa, Rahm, Scheffler, Thomas win the 2022 PGA Championship?

1653267600000

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

2.8454033550348656

True

play

YES

public

1652295387896

LukeW

This market resolves to "YES" if one of the following 5 golfers wins the 2022 PGA Championship tournament at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA which is taking place from May 19 - May 22, 2022. 1. Rory McIlroy 2. Collin Morikawa 3. Jon Rahm 4. Scottie Scheffler 5. Justin Thomas

BINARY

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0

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0

1653270499932

101.51977538944199

LukeW

1678691877614

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

2

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405768}]

["sports-default"]

0.4

1653260415311

1678691821833

0.502753380630705

0.49205111710712174

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{"NO": 220.78721166227933, "YES": 90.69389455476326}

1

will-dr-oz-win-the-2022-pennsylvani

1396.037098264907

Will Dr. Oz win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?

1652759940000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

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SG

Background: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/05/11/dr-oz-senate-pennsylvania-trump/9703579002/ Close date updated to 2022-11-16 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-16 11:59 pm Jun 3, 6:19pm: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-backed-dr-oz-wins-senate-primary-david-mccormick-concedes-1712777

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Will Ethereum fall below $1500 at any point during 2022?

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Stochastic Cockatoo

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Danny Kim

The answer will be chosen according to the winner of 2022 Men's Category of Bouldering in Salt Lake City. Close date updated to 2022-05-18 11:59 pm

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Daniel Reeves

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Will I test positive for covid before leaving the Bahamas?

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David Chee

I currently have no symptoms and tested negative from a rapid lateral flow yesterday. I shared a hotel suite with Austin who tested positive (altho we had separate rooms with our own ensuites so had very minimal contact). Someone who I had dinner with yesterday and have been hanging out with for the past week just te...

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Who will win the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize?

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N.C. Young

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Nathan Showell

This market resolves as "YES" if, on August 1, 2022, Manifold allows users to bet amounts of M$ that are less than M$1 or have nonzero numbers of M$ after the decimal point.

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Will AMZN stock go over $3000 in value at anytime before July 1st?

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Nathan

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@misha

Recently Joel hit a jackpot winning M$432 betting on https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-ea-bahamas-folks-will-repo and $M396 betting on https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-is-joels-myers-briggs-personal The rumor is that he was involved in insider trading... as he previously admitted that he was no strang...

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Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $720 on May 12, 2022?

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Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This qu...

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Will a way to extract money from unresolved closed markets materialize by mid-June?

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Alicorn

This market resolves yes if (for example) https://manifold.markets/OlegStroganov/will-i-donate-10-to-givewell-in-apr-7ebdb347162f remains unresolved by its creator but by some other means spits out the investments placed in it; if Oleg resolves that market this one resolves based on whether there's an evident feature t...

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will-manifold-give-us-the-sum-total

551

Will Manifold give us the sum total of original invested M$ for markets AND potential marginal profit/loss for sales by the end of May?

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1652318534253

Enopoletus Harding

See here: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/974116415483281489/Screenshot_219.png This market resolves to Yes if we get at least both of the following on market pages: the sum of total original M$ value invested in the market AND a measure of % potential marginal profit/loss on the sales procee...

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will-someone-born-before-2001-live

14235.426040044593

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

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1.2312767348986591e-15

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Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/

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MetaculusBot

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for n in {1..10000}; do curl

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9.585280964326047

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1652321252317

Undox

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Will this market resolve "YES?"

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0

9.798134540693649

True

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NO

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Hugh Mann

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unit_24601

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will-this-market-resolve-yes-bf7252633eee

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Will this market resolve "YES?"

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cpmm-1

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9.732616247227552

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1652322622288

Law of Good Hearts

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will-this-market-resolve-yes-95e44e3be61

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Will this market resolve "YES?"

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9.732616247227558

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1652322660057

Say Jarva

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has-manifolds-leaderboard-been-comp

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Has Manifold's leaderboard been compromised by "dragon eating the Sun" markets?

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Peter Berggren

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will-a-cell-cultured-meat-product-b

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Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2023?

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cpmm-1

0

0.5766874719970665

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1652323997306

Ben

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if one can purchase a cultured meat product (a.k.a. \"cultivated meat\", \"lab grown meat\", etc.) in a major grocery chain store in the US. Non-cell based mock meats, like the Impossible Burger, do not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty...

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bcongdon

1704068543486

1.9

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

15

307

0

1

168

[{"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1663707355463}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526255}, {"name": "Cellular agriculture", "slug": "cellular-agriculture"...

["science-default", "vegan", "cellular-agriculture", "animal-consumption-trends", "nathans-dashboard", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1666083266247372

0.5

1703985667131

1701267690343

0.02

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

0.5000271070171838

7tTf8ajLFlndQoTzNS4J

{"NO": 1149.8803071914726, "YES": 1058.0102381167505}

0

will-andrew-crocket-win-the-electio

52

Will Andrew Crocket win the election for Santa Clara County assessor?

1652936340000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

0

0.34740704429232516

True

basic

NO

public

1652324345809

Lars Doucet

There's an election for county assessor in Santa Clara County (the people who assess property for the purpose of levying property taxes). Larry Stone is a six-term incumbent and has served for 27 years. Andrew Crockett is a CPA and former employee of Stone's office. https://sanjosespotlight.com/election-2022-the-race...

BINARY

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0

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1667655530727

1101.4933452118369

LarsDoucet

1652330368529

0

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1

0

1

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472548}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1652330365367

0.5208320019328866

imUHBBn68iGUoxSUCT1j

what-will-be-the-outcome-of-my-acx

872.2517649450621

What will be the outcome of my ACX grant for automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia?

1735711140000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1652325478109

Lars Doucet

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Jarvis and I were awarded a grant for doing automated mass appraisal of land values in Philadelphia: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results?s=r I had previously written on the subject here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1000

LarsDoucet

1704142859765

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

1

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6cd3ed602f50", "prob": 0.0145247051627153, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6457650740833322, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.8140065253431, "textFts": "", "contractId": "imUHBBn68iGUoxSUCT1j", "createdTime": 1652325478315, "probChanges": {"day": -0.985475294837...

1

16

[{"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562727}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573991}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM...

["georgism", "economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1697933910397

1675693000544

True

0.5000100869206475

jBnLGsQzbDDJO4EFKIaG

{"NO": 103.03814325112707, "YES": 102.83704191207451}

0

when-this-market-closes-i-will-flip

50

When this market closes, I will flip a coin; will the result be heads?

1653537540000

z8RRHAzVe5bYW4Y8F34IEYUBGVq2

cpmm-1

0

2.715103852224911

True

play

NO

public

1652325508063

Frogs

The coin is a 1975 Canadian Voyageur dollar with a 100% nickel composition.

BINARY

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0

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1653544557916

101.4687658139118

Frogs

1653426775844

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GircJifFYjj9y9-1ss8GMLZIrslp4w5aFD3i-8FMg=s96-c

10

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1

0.5

1653426774363

1652414647310

0.5004984928809102

0.48092879860554244

PbKaxUhhHvy4Qv4VYs9U

{"NO": 1058.2100109769485, "YES": 1193.2546283186416}

1

will-a-democrat-win-pennsylvanias-2

6168.6615602198735

Will a Democrat (John Fetterman) win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election (against Republican nominee Dr. Oz)?

1667883540000

vP9bD7fNnKWXiCDCF5prsPT8wuj2

cpmm-1

0

0.3427965114147876

True

basic

YES

public

1652327795496

Steve

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pennsylvania is a key battleground state for control of the U.S. Senate. I'll resolve this market by relying on the call made by the Associated Press. If the AP does not call the election by January 4, 2023, I'll resolve it N/A.", "type": "text"}]}...

BINARY

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0

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1141.8766892102547

steve

1667870056588

0

https://firebasestorage.…997-b225186b8972

67

0

1

61

[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983498}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484941}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": ...

["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"]

0.4

1667870056478

1666636819211

False

0.45105039337277364

Mr57aKmVQ3l6tsF7s08P

which-acx-post-made-this-year-will

1066

Which ACX post made this year will have the most likes by the end of 2022?

1672559940000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.716937785113554

True

play

7a1b7ba3a6a1

public

1652328433640

SneakySly

The AstralCodexTen (ACX) post created this year with the most likes at the end of 2022 PST will be declared the winner.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672607224383

460.00000000000006

SneakySly

1672558172482

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "055fe5443daf", "prob": 0.04604984435152611, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7537250169280802, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.32946596067532, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Mr57aKmVQ3l6tsF7s08P", "createdTime": 1652328433723, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

10

[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465217}]

["acx"]

1672558172320

1657439875522

{"7a1b7ba3a6a1": 100}

True

EXYrasaQJ6JO1voOLgC5

who-will-win-the-2022-nba-finals-mv

16185.94951353639

Who will win the 2022 NBA Finals MVP?

1655708340000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6223214749324795

True

play

35d968fbb5a1

public

1652333085122

Richard

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.70310425903177, "platformFee": 2.1757760647579425, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663705054544

1359.9999999999995

Richard

1663705071194

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a4818529f4b3", "prob": 0.00020894527076774895, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0002013737865035084, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.9635619397528751, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EXYrasaQJ6JO1voOLgC5", "createdTime": 1652333085204, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

19

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398982}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779905827}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "g...

["sports-default", "please-resolve", "basketball"]

1655622111546

1663705068690

False

{"35d968fbb5a1": 100}

True

th0HsAUEmyyL4hL8sA8j

how-many-answers-to-this-question-w

192

How many answers to this question will receive at least M$10 in bets?

1654066740000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.846026073490958

True

play

ebbe049073d1

public

1652333646879

Richard

Only integer answers will be considered. The closest integer answer to the number of answers with M$10+ in bets will be selected as the winner. In the case of a tie, the lower number will be chosen.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.24, "platformFee": 1.81, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654094573386

460

Richard

1654018773687

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b4da8c39aa18", "prob": 0.2712673611111111, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.240433066497939, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.56909938984007, "textFts": "", "contractId": "th0HsAUEmyyL4hL8sA8j", "createdTime": 1652333647101, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

1654018772456

{"ebbe049073d1": 100}

True

0.5190762642170524

0Zg2A5PWGmHiFUdxx2PC

{"NO": 236.59441563319245, "YES": 57.55122635323935}

0.8160803764837742

does-faire-actually-have-covid-afte

621.0597236751497

Does Faire actually have COVID after testing positive with mild cold-like symptoms?

1652943540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

2.7731948123839034

True

play

MKT

public

1652335313909

Daniel Reeves

She woke up with a slight sore throat and took two rapid tests in a row, both positive. Later she developed a slightly runny nose and very occasional cough. Twist: See this market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/do-i-have-covid-despite-testing-neg

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.945639757142515, "platformFee": 1.1576066261904194, "liquidityFee": 6.945639757142515}

0

1661288902847

106.94563975714252

dreev

1661288983827

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

6

0

1

0.5

1652863679533

1661288981584

0.8160803764837742

0.5125663122773254

Ra7VB17EdA5N2pnxx7wt

{"NO": 134.8331364360625, "YES": 110.54251517043339}

0.5619090887739991

do-i-have-covid-despite-testing-neg

701.610861352563

Do I have COVID despite testing negative?

1652943540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

2.4042641307895405

True

play

MKT

public

1652335324828

Daniel Reeves

I tested negative with a rapid test but have the same symptoms as Faire -- see https://manifold.markets/dreev/does-faire-actually-have-covid-afte -- who tested positive. Seems unlikely that we have different viruses, living in the same house and having the same symptoms, right? (I got both doses of the Pfizer vaccine ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.924964698576039, "platformFee": 1.8208274497626729, "liquidityFee": 10.924964698576039}

0

1661288855316

110.92496469857605

dreev

1661278658454

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

8

0

1

0.5

1652931613212

1661278654066

0.5619090887739991

0.12857802165184554

tiZGRfrlAoEtp4TdLRpW

{"NO": 848.4762445178878, "YES": 1405.5460971486098}

0.08178561370764742

will-cpython-still-have-a-global-in

874.1020869915202

Will CPython still have a global interpreter lock in 2030

1893473940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.112675806499103

False

basic

public

1652336491901

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

May 18, 8:00pm: Note that this means a MANDATORY GIL. If you can disable it, then for the purposes of this question, that is identical to if it does not exist.

BINARY

{"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.428706067026939, "platformFee": 1.1781846068546198, "liquidityFee": 3.900625752206783}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1716212969883

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

15

0

8

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455306}, {"name": "Python Questions", "slug": "python-questions", "groupId": "vBKvNFuJMP6gyWzCIGJ4", "createdTime": 1658529584574}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2"...

["python-questions", "technology-default", "olivia"]

0.7

1716212966630

1690943228688

0.630769236383606

qQyjLi5tX8fxsXo0Fg8y

{"NO": 8.655100010687505, "YES": 438.4635889242455}

0

will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a

445.264195907766

Will I join the group house under @Austin?

1653756859283

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

4.567431398838187

True

play

NO

public

1652337591242

Rai

Resolves to "yes" if by market close I live in the new group house under @Austin. That would include co-signing a lease, being a sub-tenant, etc. See: * https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/what-should-we-call-the-4bed15-unit * https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.901594156191765, "platformFee": 0.6502656926986277, "liquidityFee": 3.901594156191765}

0

1653756859283

103.90159415619176

agentydragon

1653617112027

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

2

0

0.68

1653617111829

1653107029420

0.03262176782370962

0.4934351320994959

NMDh5aPwaG75b4qWnZ1w

{"NO": 41.079619508619686, "YES": 269.666573067847}

0.12921300627445392

what-will-the-next-peak-in-us-daily

170

What will the next peak in US daily Covid case count be (as a fraction of 1M)?

1662015540000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.123109915421087

True

play

MKT

public

1652338839406

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Covid daily case counts are currently rising due to the more infectious Omicron subvariants. At the next peak, what will be the 7-day moving average?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves P...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0005615929178737, "platformFee": 0.33342693215297897, "liquidityFee": 2.0005615929178737}

0

1662041739314

102.00056159291788

jack

1662041733837

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

2

0

1

3

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}]

["medicine"]

0.5

1661418139489

1662041731919

0.12921300627445392

0.21655302897390055

RgTwPSgMLbO5i5DbNLR5

{"NO": 125.48369180796746, "YES": 602.496585528046}

0

will-i-move-more-than-once-before-o

585.9907677892332

Will I move more than once before October 30?

1667156400000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.902371026975232

True

play

NO

public

1652338876460

Rai

I am currently subletting, and my sublet ends at the end of May. I am looking for ideally a chill group house to join, ideally rationalist/EA-ish-aligned, ideally in SF. One option might be the place opening under @Austin: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a It is possible I migh...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.206669831316471, "platformFee": 0.781705229833535, "liquidityFee": 4.69023137900121}

0

1667166071647

184.69023137900126

agentydragon

1667044516957

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

13

0

1

13

0.35

1667044516772

1666072180812

0.05443506109335283

8rNSUADZ1rIMHO9YS4dn

when-will-japans-tourism-levels-ret

1187.2796047413447

When will Japan's tourism return to 2019 levels?

1830324900000

0f64mQbfSJTtlonbJbItjy745u13

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1652340871516

Flawless Train

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International travelers to Japan peaked at 31,882,049 in 2019. https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/ Visits have plummetted in 2020--2022. What will be the first year that inbound tourism to Japan hits 31,882,049 or more, accord...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

FlawlessTrain

1711072920356

0

https://firebasestorage.…1b9-6fdd2edfbd86

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "04227f13d989", "prob": 0.012718227950023118, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6343237886128912, "userId": "0f64mQbfSJTtlonbJbItjy745u13", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 126.8681527383879, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8rNSUADZ1rIMHO9YS4dn", "createdTime": 1652340871584, "probChanges": {"day": -0.987281772...

9

[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "🇯🇵 Japan", "slug": "japan", "groupId": "H5HOzbMpcIA...

["world-default", "economics-default", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "japan", "tourism"]

1711072917007

1704178737030

True

0.7376462346389572

PdmtxzDVwRB3IUDoe3KW

{"NO": 115.77570532560046, "YES": 109.61566205816595}

0.15

my-laptop-battery-is-still-flaky-in

397.61560281496435

My laptop battery is still flaky in 2 months

1657695540000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.3150887039644923

True

play

MKT

public

1652342525570

Rai

My laptop has had problems with battery that look like either battery firmware is broken, or perhaps bad contact. OS reporting 0% charge ~50% of the time, while obviously happily running on battery. I've tried a bit to get Lenovo to fix it and have had lots of trouble reaching a human. This market resolves to YES if a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.750162514540695, "platformFee": 0.9367034801201216, "liquidityFee": 5.620220880720729}

0

1657727095788

105.62022088072072

agentydragon

1657727133990

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

9

0

1

0.74

1657663850765

1657727132957

0.15

0.5111566140965971

kZ0RWasUbTzzVbc3041e

{"NO": 116.6387413597203, "YES": 90.18731116788072}

0.38

what-percentage-of-seats-in-the-hou

40

What percentage of seats in the house of reps will the Coalition hold after the 2022 Australian Election.

1653227940000

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

2.737570036146616

True

play

MKT

public

1652343514393

Electricitypipe

This markets will resolve as a percentage of seats will the Liberal-National Coalition hold in the house of reps after the 2022 Australian Election. This market will be resolved on 2022-05-22. This does not include any independents forming a minority government with the Coalition. The current % of seats (as of 2022-05-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1654076063982

101.13484922527786

Electricitypipe

1653108091271

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

2

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502758}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112329}]

["politics-default", "australia"]

0.51

1653108089965

0.38

0.29121903879991423

7hCn16v1RMbyr0lsOeUz

{"NO": 76.05865448538435, "YES": 713.8952193927682}

0

conditional-on-the-price-of-bitcoin

1150.1317611240047

Conditional on the price of bitcoin going below $20k, will the price of bitcoin go below $10k before 2023?

1672527540000

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

cpmm-1

0

3.0670246843964115

True

play

NO

public

1652347054222

Magnus Hambleton

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.286566499839876, "platformFee": 0.5101276443087631, "liquidityFee": 3.060765865852578}

0

1672643233658

143.0607658658526

Mag

1672403635654

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c

15

0

1

15

0.3

1672403635463

1656238165123

0.04

0.4807625884565315

zNH0Rf3amGVXTdeRtNdg

{"NO": 9.476431678864643, "YES": 1546.1540531483524}

0

will-queen-elizabeth-abdicate-befor

1610.2904087194997

Will Queen Elizabeth abdicate before she dies?

1662674464301

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

5.210323684427883

True

play

NO

public

1652354068297

Martin Randall

Resolves yes as soon as she abdicates, if she abdicates Resolves no as soon as she dies, if she dies.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.190245005902106, "platformFee": 0.8237899793215824, "liquidityFee": 4.942739875929494}

0

1662674464301

104.9427398759295

MartinRandall

1662672874972

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

29

0

30

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1667607597559}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406875}]

["stefans-group", "uk-politics"]

0.5

1662672874773

1662659165319

0.0056428584778421146

p54L9hUVSwdxr1dyT1aM

when-will-i-finish-my-phd

256

When will I finish my PhD

1735689540000

FebmYaXJmudUl8fwK56RbYQJG2E3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1652358960951

Eigil Rischel

I'm enrolled in a three-year PhD program in Computer and Information Sciences at the University of Strathclyde, which I began in October 2020. However for approximately the duration of 2022, I've suspended my studies to use a scholarship which funds me traveling and studying math, and during this time I've elected not ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

459.99999999999994

EigilRischel

1690934886332

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdWPMyVSqzB9j_mVrYOlsn56YOKUzkKx8onJkh=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fbba81152941", "prob": 0.15500031000062003, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.448837714505339, "userId": "FebmYaXJmudUl8fwK56RbYQJG2E3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.1564836843973, "textFts": "", "contractId": "p54L9hUVSwdxr1dyT1aM", "createdTime": 1652358961029, "probChanges": {"day": -0.844999689999...

4

[]

1690934886131

1652425726906

True

0.48217045419668286

oe9rItkboVDu9N4twcgl

{"NO": 20.00413735331735, "YES": 659.4150921830246}

0

will-manifold-add-sbfs-quote-about

636.074984934952

Will manifold add SBF's quote about manifold: "makes sense" to the new landing page in May?

1654062900000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

3.9883392074965127

True

play

NO

public

1652359697738

Ian Philips

SBF was overheard to say that manifold "makes sense", should we advertise this?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.202766996702763, "platformFee": 0.7004611661171275, "liquidityFee": 4.202766996702763}

0

1654087903228

104.20276699670274

ian

1668550857412

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

9

0

1

0.5

1654056617491

1668550855190

0.03368656749090641

0.6319975550526085

o3JzwVkYRNK3hDzuWd1e

{"NO": 1.1840802639197285, "YES": 1378.4078218523946}

0

will-the-milwaukee-bucks-beat-the-b

1520

Will the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Playoffs?

1652666671466

R3O7uqCsZMUVvhk9ymHHzzAttn63

cpmm-1

0

5.812345261021063

True

play

NO

public

1652362613274

lloydhavemercy

Resolves to YES if NBA.com reports that the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.46334956060251, "platformFee": 0.9105582601004182, "liquidityFee": 5.46334956060251}

0

1652666671466

105.4633495606025

lloydhavemercy

1652652380188

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwUliPMyrPJkhAHfxjZDT0TcxSnwLUSWfPNP7mL=s96-c

6

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407681}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181994258}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

0.66

1652652378796

False

0.0014730852575926367

0.3825627382808104

EqUOI4ZLKWYmtbmvGnu8

{"NO": 1194.9930027881198, "YES": 4.2644010592703925}

1

will-real-madrid-win-the-uefa-champ

2337.654637610731

Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League Final?

1653796740000

oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43

cpmm-1

0

5.313647680887516

True

play

YES

public

1652363027160

Nick Hansen

This market resolves to yes if Real Madrid wins the UEFA Champions League Final on May 28th.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 23.83926156043729, "platformFee": 3.973210260072881, "liquidityFee": 23.83926156043729}

0

1653848191430

123.8392615604373

NickHansen

1653773645432

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJMhAHO6lUyyX5TOGoPPZjylGQ3-DLNgmXUxS0Q_4=s96-c

10

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399296}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816363}]

["sports-default", "uefa"]

0.3

1653773641336

1653405642215

0.9942735072433538

KP5QLnq6z4d67odKJdgP

how-many-books-will-i-have-read-by

224

How many books will I have read by August?

1659326340000

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.8178320293382635

True

play

38a0249509f5

public

1652366522383

David Chee

Closest integer to the correct answer wins. I've already finished a couple books this past week (wont count). I'm also partially through two more which will count. I normally read fiction but am starting to read a lot more business/marketing related books and want to challenge myself to get through as much as this lis...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.44, "platformFee": 2.11, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659340904434

320

SirSalty

1659341022935

0

https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "15c8ef649169", "prob": 0.20290560831101373, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.332245398151757, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 56.30279282209937, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KP5QLnq6z4d67odKJdgP", "createdTime": 1652366522485, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554652}]

["personal-goals"]

1659324651343

1659341022419

{"38a0249509f5": 100}

True

0.05458175885725059

sv596lB2yTnk7kDjkp90

{"NO": 747.6230645997948, "YES": 970.4056948118847}

0

will-xi-jinping-be-replaced-as-pres

7944.599133789208

Will Xi Jinping be replaced as President of China?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.3315329169193344

True

play

NO

public

1652367697376

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves as Yes if the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee announces Xi Jinping will step down at the end of his current term. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://open.spotify....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.420721515301137, "platformFee": 0.2684196061634785, "liquidityFee": 1.6105176369808705}

0

1666761593702

783.8304761253742

BTE

1666318321668

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

0

52

0

2

48

[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1658936932175}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime"...

["china", "politics-default", "world-default", "global-macro", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"]

0.05

1666318321478

1666009751949

0.04258466948438997

0.44172672585212236

ZUqyCfdHCju9Benb2Lfw

{"NO": 71.30593165181116, "YES": 361.819219543556}

0

will-rai-have-a-boygirlfriend-at-an

885.7778077478766

Will Rai have a boy/girlfriend at any point in 2022?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.4213075564230815

True

play

NO

public

1652370249257

Rai

Resolves to YES if I have a relationship in which we agree to go by boy/girlfriend at any point between market open and market close. My last "official boyfriends" relationship ended ~October 2021 and was in this stage for maybe a year or so. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.539561605166277, "platformFee": 1.0784274035836554, "liquidityFee": 6.4705644215019325}

0

1672588846427

160.04558671088793

agentydragon

1672481129884

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

17

0

1

19

0.58

1672481129758

1654207608524

0.13

oZPUk0uwPHe0FNnDUXGQ

what-markets-should-i-create-to-imp

217.79132841711402

What markets should I create to improve my blog?

1653362026387

G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.85701492576443

True

play

MKT

public

1652371400675

Sam Harsimony

I am looking for concrete proposals for Manifold markets I could create to improve my blog (https://harsimony.wordpress.com/). I will split the prize evenly across all responses that I end up believing are a good idea. I am trying to bootstrap prediction markets by using them to suggest new prediction markets! May 12...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4883468633154395, "platformFee": 1.1220867158288599, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653362026387

399.99999999999994

SamHarsimony

1652389112223

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHG2tIPogQSAicyVVtqTDp_FBGj2gT-oxGk9Er=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "495e85eb0e22", "prob": 0.30120481927710846, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.210063327153904, "userId": "G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.56734691899705, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oZPUk0uwPHe0FNnDUXGQ", "createdTime": 1652371400759, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1652389110771

1652376815029

{"3734519fdab2": 29.96389891696751, "498582175a06": 15.396050116797621, "49dd8fc9711b": 10.575493735400297, "751cf1e65830": 31.72648120620089, "b104fb630fe2": 12.338076024633681}

True

0.35535826424431727

8gk1s5s1m4nqkmqyESfi

{"NO": 104.36747035729866, "YES": 243.26180147437694}

0

will-i-get-covid-a-second-time-in-2

260.9642220215271

Will I get COVID a second time in 2022?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.425234700944259

True

play

NO

public

1652371413077

Rai

Resolves yes if I get a positive PCR or NAAT COVID test before market close. I am fully vaccinated and boosted with Moderna and had COVID once before. May 12, 9:34pm: Um, actually I have the Pfitzer vaccine, not Moderna. Oops, typo.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7035516445190806, "platformFee": 0.28392527408651347, "liquidityFee": 1.7035516445190806}

0

1672588714781

141.70355164451905

agentydragon

1672557525662

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

9

0

1

8

0.41

1672557525542

0.19

0.03811720228815579

bQnFKhQE7SFgaQHW358d

{"NO": 235.91874156490695, "YES": 447.7899085272642}

0

nuclear-attack-in-2022

3872.712274016271

Nuclear attack in 2022?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

9.371923819597733

True

play

NO

public

1652371749567

Rai

Resolves YES if in 2022 any place is hit by a nuke, by any party, outside the context of a test.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.1620949852835225, "platformFee": 0.19208964533542813, "liquidityFee": 1.1525378720125685}

0

1672588678879

241.1525378720126

agentydragon

1672564630627

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

48

0

1

44

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495415}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}]

["politics-default", "nuclear-risk"]

0.05

1672558374706

1672564626931

0.02