p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.23405066684109738 | lZQWJKJrSMcKJmQeYOCx | {"NO": 81.16476506328858, "YES": 722.9390431846857} | 0 | will-more-than-five-people-be-kille | 1653.8511511865122 | {"NO": 215, "YES": 118} | Will more than five people be killed by bears in North America in 2022? | 1672549140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 215, "YES": 118} | 0 | 3.5997095362512894 | True | play | NO | public | 1644290277400 | Sam | This market will resolve positively (but sadly) if six or more people are killed by bears in North America in 2022. Resolution date is January 1, 2023.
Statistics on bear attacks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_bear_attacks_in_North_America#2020s
Feb 11, 2:18pm: FYI indirect kills do not count.
Close da... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 362.16432734326554, "YES": 237.3309924978194} | {"creatorFee": 0.10326091084537492, "platformFee": 0.006960938849116974, "liquidityFee": 0.04176563309470184} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1672560478317 | 140.0417656330947 | sam | 1672546698698 | 0 | 15 | 1650314740332 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1672546698553 | 1661834039069 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28739257566094084 | DSyaNfB4mq8R18vMPvkg | {"NO": 53.47634100418705, "YES": 784.5581375565661} | 0 | will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s | 1894.6238248241286 | {"NO": 217.3487658491349, "YES": 216} | Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022? | 1672549140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 239, "YES": 216} | 0 | 3.557076468831766 | True | play | NO | public | 1644290950878 | Sam | This question will resolve positively if two or more people are killed by shark attack on the shores (or aquariums) of the United States in 2022.
More info /resolution data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_shark_attacks_in_the_United_States#2020s
Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm
Close date... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 376.76732395806914, "YES": 377.5013769912247} | {"creatorFee": 7.015593051403191, "platformFee": 0.5088229940418474, "liquidityFee": 2.6320793059760925} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1672560326220 | 142.63207930597608 | sam | 1670122583176 | 0 | 26 | 1650313854374 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1670122583049 | 1658832950246 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6268508683052308 | lSiaV9xmDRSbQ02VInRM | {"NO": 4.456128460507188, "YES": 664.4006835339444} | 0 | will-the-libyan-presidential-electi | 1208.0079203672485 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 100} | Will the Libyan presidential election take place before July 2022? | 1656619140000 | ecQpbw7cfSh1Q3FmfSkOkEtGikN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 100} | 0 | 5.408015446475543 | True | play | NO | public | 1644307206496 | Jared Jeffery | This market resolves 'YES' if before 1 July 2022 the presidential election takes place - not necessarily everywhere, but extensive enough for it to be considered a national poll. The results or legality of the election are not of primary concern as these may be contested. The question is whether a significant proportio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 210.2974084481309} | {"creatorFee": 1.7051320199393456, "platformFee": 0.2227471842264375, "liquidityFee": 1.3364831053586248} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1663705883850 | 101.33648310535862 | JaredJeffery | 1663705889013 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhbNySyRLMWObqC-9DD7ELG2W3N-kfHV8QUPa3LBQ=s96-c | 5 | 1650314739539 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503268}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1656322387135 | 1663705887259 | 0.011141497826233481 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9734577006954481 | Av4QoKoYLjH6Xfn0atA2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-the-belarussian-constitutional | 1021.0745987434366 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 878.9254012565634} | Will the Belarussian constitutional referendum on 27 February 2022 see the adoption of a new constitution? | 1646683140000 | ecQpbw7cfSh1Q3FmfSkOkEtGikN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 880} | 0 | 9.607466070003856 | True | play | YES | public | 1644307926330 | Jared Jeffery | This market resolves "YES" if the majority of voters in the referendum vote "YES" to the question: "Do you accept the amendments and additions to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus?". Whether this is a true reflection of votes cast or the popular will is not the issue. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 167.6305461424021, "YES": 1015.1785465379872} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1680901291295 | 100 | JaredJeffery | 1680901290880 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhbNySyRLMWObqC-9DD7ELG2W3N-kfHV8QUPa3LBQ=s96-c | 10 | 1650313836749 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475474}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664330908204}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1680901288535 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5418900030742108 | NM91It0nPO880gkJ2ubK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5418900030742108 | will-the-power-of-the-dog-win-best | 2778.667137545364 | {"NO": 400.063958592369, "YES": 365.7375925654788} | Will The Power of the Dog win Best Picture at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648435800000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 364, "YES": 376} | 0 | 4.67123297221078 | True | play | NO | public | 1644373269261 | David Glidden | This market resolves to "YES" if The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 586.007594109148, "YES": 637.3440402433708} | {"creatorFee": 16.13858478013499, "platformFee": 4.034646195033748, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1648465394183 | 100 | dglid | 1644373269261 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 27 | 1715658044118 | 0 | 1 | 0.5418900030742108 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46953775847271795 | AZQlrRiV4CrrqpYwUbYX | {"NO": 9.36178755621491, "YES": 1569.3067427534675} | 0 | will-reddit-file-an-s1-before-may-1 | 2158.7932055904885 | {"NO": 335, "YES": 356} | Will Reddit file an S-1 before May 1st, 2022? | 1651450851241 | SpbfcG5QKZhQdXAZDsBtPa9wySl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 335, "YES": 356} | 0 | 5.284541388037444 | True | play | NO | public | 1644380671507 | Indescript Eagle | This market resolves to "YES" if by May 1, 2022, Reddit has filed a public S-1 document with the SEC. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 565.7084054528445, "YES": 552.860741959492} | {"creatorFee": 2.6629901108950498, "platformFee": 0.44383168514917487, "liquidityFee": 2.6629901108950498} | {"NO": 78.10249675906654, "YES": 62.44997998398398} | 0 | 1651450851241 | 102.66299011089505 | indescripteagle | 1644380671507 | 0 | 11 | 1650313834499 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444691}] | ["technology-default"] | 1651360824043 | 1650685682132 | 0.0052526658153612335 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8431351541202933 | IDHmTl0592tDMTcS3coP | {"NO": 140.64805078646188, "YES": 94.4593308153924} | 1 | will-it-still-be-trendy-to-publicly | 719.8833955472008 | {"NO": 66.78653259981124, "YES": 364.275805806654} | Will it still be trendy to publicly hate Meta/Facebook in 2023? | 1656647940000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 71, "YES": 362} | 0 | 5.240027771942682 | True | play | YES | public | 1644428780558 | Sam | Meta/Facebook has incurred an overwhelming amount of negative publicity on their platforms, services, policies and leadership over the past few years despite (or because of) its vast and intensive usership. Will this public hate continue into 2023?
Resolution is subjective and based on sentiment from social media post... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 210.33952034385715, "YES": 487.63151400956343} | {"creatorFee": 0.6386507821173842, "platformFee": 0.04673272086072319, "liquidityFee": 0.2730278328152086} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1672560414194 | 100.27302783281522 | sam | 1656446537847 | 0 | 29 | 1650313885778 | 0 | 1 | 30 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446363}] | ["technology-default"] | 1656446536614 | 1647363411042 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09 | 1xLF7hyWSrC7dWK2IpeM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09 | how-many-new-signups-will-manifold | 1362 | {"NO": 857, "YES": 505} | How many new signups will Manifold have at the end of launch day? | 1644479940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 857, "YES": 505} | 0 | 4.648737127640244 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644429306689 | Manifold | This market resolves to a probability between 0% and 100%; each 1% represents 5 new signups to Manifold Markets by end of day PT on launch day (2022-02-09).
For background, Manifold had 541 signups before launch; you can see daily user activity at https://manifold.markets/analytics
Feb 10, 9:09pm: Final value was 47!... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1257.0994391853017, "YES": 746.4214627139281} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1644556234905 | 100 | Manifold | 1644429306689 | 0 | 10 | 1715656908814 | 0 | 1644430771192 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.627471383975026 | iDWyxGM2M7vMmP4oYZ5u | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.627471383975026 | if-i-use-conditional-prediction-mar | 24 | {"NO": 9.6, "YES": 14.4} | If I use conditional prediction markets to inform at least 5 decisions by March 8, what will my average self-reported wellbeing be from March 9 to April 8? | 1647020148673 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9.6, "YES": 14.4} | 0 | 4.952739542578979 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644430602453 | Tom | I record a wellbeing score for myself every day between 0 and 100, currently averaging 64 with a standard deviation of 19. If I use conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions (not including this) by 11:59PM EST March 8, 2022, then I will resolve this question as PROB with value equal to my average wellbein... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 75.683551713698, "YES": 98.2242332624694} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 60, "YES": 80} | 0 | 1647020148673 | 100 | toms | 1644430602453 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 4 | 1715658556591 | 0 | [{"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677478514621}, {"name": "Conditional markets", "slug": "conditional-markets", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "N0398xzZ9qTQFgy6Zny0", "createdTime": 1677... | ["toms-personal", "conditional-markets"] | 0.627471383975026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.82 | 9DHxqPKTGVSyMsscSL84 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.82 | if-i-dont-use-conditional-predictio | 43 | {"NO": 8.6, "YES": 34.4} | If I don't use conditional prediction markets to inform at least 5 decisions by March 8, what will my average self-reported wellbeing be from March 9 to April 8? | 1649476740000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8.6, "YES": 34.4} | 0 | 4.91406299411142 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644430768447 | Tom | I record a wellbeing score for myself every day between 0 and 100, currently averaging 64 with a standard deviation of 19. If I use don't conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions (not including this) by 11:59PM EST March 8, 2022, then I will resolve this question as PROB with value equal to my average we... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 74.03377607551839, "YES": 122.34377793741699} | {"creatorFee": 0.22735320861245598, "platformFee": 0.056838302153113994, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 60, "YES": 80} | 0 | 1649489983642 | 100 | toms | 1644430768447 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 5 | 1715657663443 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677537563241}] | ["toms-personal"] | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3442306808095688 | MbE2BhJNHyB1vfWXxxah | {"NO": 41.11905460975147, "YES": 619.6181874774124} | 0 | will-conor-lamb-win-the-pennsylvani | 1556.3534909694265 | {"NO": 414.6465090305735, "YES": 181} | Will Conor Lamb win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate? | 1652893200000 | SNLRUd19xDTn32MWCDqswcHkyFH3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 415, "YES": 181} | 0 | 3.810439994531015 | True | play | NO | public | 1644432251517 | Ian Alexander | This market resolves to "YES" if Lamb is declared the winner of the May 17 election, "NO" if any other candidate is declared the winner. Sources of corroboration: PA Democratic Party, Washington Post. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 560.0842590516586, "YES": 412.58900650523674} | {"creatorFee": 2.2908751355257775, "platformFee": 0.38181252258762954, "liquidityFee": 2.2908751355257775} | {"NO": 88.31760866327846, "YES": 46.9041575982343} | 0 | 1652897208687 | 102.29087513552578 | 512yinz | 1652846594749 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggfe7pCJU6ZvsW4M3O8YPCcXbfJFlMExX6u0TKZuqc=s96-c | 8 | 1650314552248 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483291}] | ["politics-default"] | 1652846590882 | 1651932054101 | 0.03366249346087034 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31837320173960154 | rmnkwsGfspE7iIszz3lK | {"NO": 64.91910818622557, "YES": 732.791846142074} | 0 | will-a-new-sarscov2-voc-be-declared | 2361.874947510493 | {"NO": 295, "YES": 649} | Will a new SARS-COV-2 VOC be declared by the WHO in 2022? | 1672549140000 | pVKxIFLoLpXHswiuEEzcAjK9JEv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 295, "YES": 649} | 0 | 3.116037154211074 | True | play | NO | public | 1644432540637 | Alex Demarsh | Market resolves "yes" if the WHO, via the existing TAG-VE or a subsequent working group, officially declares a new lineage of SARS-CoV-2 to be a "variant of concern" in a formal written statement before the end of 2022.
(Honestly since this is Manifold Markets and I'm chaotic good aligned, I'll probably resolve it "y... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 596.95896006342, "YES": 856.4905136660883} | {"creatorFee": 3.59733360412195, "platformFee": 0.42736292360076017, "liquidityFee": 2.5641775416045607} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1672582615237 | 182.56417754160455 | AlexDemarsh | 1672481170209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6agovUKf1PNh7bIcMTfz1roQW3rzLGiP_P6L0_Q=s96-c | 33 | 1650314781133 | 0 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601091}] | ["medicine"] | 1672481169990 | 1662123791672 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7822390001444818 | s8dFcRdrB1fEeGU7Tjym | {"NO": 182.8541667992764, "YES": 86.65998308955133} | 1 | will-the-next-dominant-strain-of-sa | 2100.261860020184 | {"NO": 418.6054237217861, "YES": 1133.907791599128} | Will the next dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 be derived from Omicron? | 1654709092173 | QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 410, "YES": 1153} | 0 | 4.081256013583648 | True | play | YES | public | 1644440338197 | Gustavo Lacerda | More precisely, when we have a new #1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA according to http://covariants.org/per-country, will it be descended from Omicron? If this does not happen by the end date of 2022/Dec/31, it will resolve to Yes, since it means that Omicron will still be #1. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 772.6483321045815, "YES": 1460.7581872802468} | {"creatorFee": 1.3874503008392387, "platformFee": 0.2652669387623082, "liquidityFee": 0.9791476373700173} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1654709092173 | 100.97914763737002 | GustavoLacerda | 1652997471023 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c | 45 | 1650314783048 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535026}] | ["science-default"] | 1652997470869 | 1644441327575 | 0.883444292452031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5799634016368717 | ZT5mDPBaratLVJRQFZLA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5799634016368717 | usrussia-standoff-escalate-diplomat | 157 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 71} | US-Russia standoff escalate ? Diplomatic solution possible? | 1645122540000 | APuJ4vyiLdQHB7tNHyRnuseswji1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 71} | 0 | 2.8453633935480527 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644445027568 | John B | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 144.52681412111735, "YES": 169.8263819316657} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1697239901470 | 100 | JohnB | 1697239919077 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwbRCjCR7jDI9emHwRf3sd56Ndb3OzQ757-q8ic=s96-c | 5 | 1650314648432 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493284}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779577078}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politic... | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "us-politics", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1697239918383 | False | 0.58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9685875369665634 | aYiDh2wJSOqF4IycWHQX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9685875369665634 | will-i-believe-that-13177-is-a-prim | 3008.018548029472 | {"NO": 117.63217061521163, "YES": 1874.4244914368642} | Will I believe that 13177 is a prime number? | 1645084740000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 125, "YES": 1950} | 0 | 4.638733733026243 | True | play | YES | public | 1644451470282 | Vivek Hebbar | This market resolves to yes if I put more than 50% credence on 13177 being prime after reading your arguments. I won't use a calculator or written calculations to check it myself. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 370.7869479864321, "YES": 2058.9361613317164} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 91.6515138991168, "YES": 40} | 0 | 1645163388862 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1644451470282 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 17 | 1715658378116 | 0 | 1 | 1644533746353 | 0.9685875369665634 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2 | n8mG7Os7gF5cgrZUfOs4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | will-david-win-dynasty-game-night-e | 50 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 10} | Will David win Dynasty Game Night Episode 88? | 1646110740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | NO | public | 1644452826478 | David Glidden | On Thursday, February 10th, 2022, I will be competing in a three-person Dynasty Game Night, a fantasy football game show podcast expected to be Episode 88 published by end of February here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-game-night/id1262761204
This market will resolve "YES" if I win the night and "NO" ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1645055400618 | 100 | dglid | 1644452826478 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 1715658655389 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407296}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Ts12EkaOSDWza1r6PoU8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye | 10 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes in a single transaction? | 1645084740000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644453595009 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 77.78174593052023} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644453621359 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1644453595009 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 1 | 1715658215737 | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42999999999999994 | NoafqKvlIYbs1Kj2HnUp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.42999999999999994 | will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye-9f68227b1eb0 | 10 | {"NO": 5.700000000000001, "YES": 4.3} | Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes? | 1644479940000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.700000000000001, "YES": 4.3} | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644453701742 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 83.04817878797826, "YES": 72.131823767322} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302} | 0 | 1644453724003 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1644453701742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 1 | 1715658067105 | 0 | 0.42999999999999994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.980294635214874 | RmfEp0O0SVJCqkJA4Fjk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.980294635214874 | will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye-69a348b8990c | 2929.8458356479473 | {"NO": 173.8541643520527, "YES": 2752.3} | Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes in a single transaction? | 1644479940000 | Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 165.7, "YES": 2752.3} | 0 | 4.631505439872898 | True | play | YES | public | 1644453771675 | Vivek Hebbar | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 424.7988069960547, "YES": 2996.190080752555} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302} | 0 | 1644999172216 | 100 | VivekHebbar | 1644453771675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c | 10 | 1715658178960 | 0 | 1644477456866 | 0.980294635214874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.717825922324382 | BW3mhrDyAFVKrdKK1c47 | {"NO": 445.93542836194945, "YES": 55.56152581552171} | 1 | will-jalen-hurts-be-the-2022-week-1 | 510.83414697861224 | {"NO": 14.400000000000002, "YES": 38.203250969543404} | Will Jalen Hurts be the 2022 Week 1 starting QB for the Philadelphia Eagles? | 1662868740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14.400000000000002, "YES": 38.599999999999994} | 0 | 3.930495611829694 | True | play | YES | public | 1644457452329 | David Glidden | This market resolves to "YES" if Jalen Hurts starts for the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season and "NO" if not or if at any point prior to Week 1 he ceases to be rostered by the team. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.0629385107646, "YES": 129.29250638174454} | {"creatorFee": 2.627173689894865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1662921008324 | 100 | dglid | 1662822989947 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 1650313840854 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397863}] | ["sports-default"] | 1662822988610 | 0.9533089302418047 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9385452737609128 | xEJuGdqq3NqJr14Gmr9q | {"NO": 550.9185126460658, "YES": 90.36486880471898} | 1 | will-official-wordle-still-be-free | 1001.4552752544303 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 419.5447247455697} | Will official Wordle still be free on May 1, 2022? | 1651388340000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 425} | 0 | 10.004785751770466 | True | play | YES | public | 1644458922001 | Conflux | This market simply resolves to "YES" if you can play standard, official Wordle (currently located at powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle) for free on May 1, 2022.
Wordle was recently acquired by the New York Times, who say that it will "initially remain free." | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 551.7075253116516} | {"creatorFee": 0.48892412360539195, "platformFee": 0.081487353934232, "liquidityFee": 0.48892412360539195} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1651418217371 | 100.48892412360541 | Conflux | 1644458922001 | 0 | 17 | 1650314818239 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1647135469044 | 0.9893739274003943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02493760428067333 | 5PDVTheaHtxdn1vRtM5h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02493760428067333 | will-i-catch-covid-by-april | 1405.6465241594492 | {"NO": 509.8534758405509, "YES": 24.5} | Will I catch COVID by April? | 1648724340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 510.5, "YES": 24.5} | 0 | 4.690931202781599 | True | play | NO | public | 1644458996063 | N.C. Young | I live in Auckland, New Zealand with 4 other people. I work remotely, as do 2/4 of my cohabitants. We've all had 3 Pfizer shots. None of us has tested positive before, nor anyone we know locally.
Feb 11, 10:19am: By default, this will resolve NO. A positive test or my displaying symptoms while another member of my hou... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 626.3939114574697, "YES": 100.174847142384} | {"creatorFee": 0.9541390336220369, "platformFee": 0.23853475840550922, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1648936221514 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1644458996063 | 0 | 12 | 1715656995791 | 0 | 1 | 1647144643952 | 0.02493760428067333 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06322071500664395 | fcyLnV7t6eg0PPjABQzN | {"NO": 898.8775769142828, "YES": 4403.987646414819} | 0 | will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem | 18996.966725744995 | {"NO": 1473.4882019133333, "YES": 111.34257052514997} | Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | pY2DeRJXwFSq9vtvKTKDX5jVo6u2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1475.4, "YES": 115.6} | 0 | 1.6924935429399408 | True | basic | NO | public | 1644459365392 | Karl Keefer | Some people are really optimistic about new reactor design with super strong magnets. Initial probability is super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Feb 9, 6:16pm: Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1636.573722896751, "YES": 400.35132231519464} | {"creatorFee": 0.7837390230435642, "platformFee": 0.061678204913202764, "liquidityFee": 0.3107332606800341} | {"NO": 98.99494936611666, "YES": 14.142135623730951} | 0 | 1672688654929 | 1040.31073326068 | karlkeefer | 1672688969062 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj766Nnn6RY4KyrYSHlCDdUH-DYm9oRYEdNpwtD=s96-c | 0 | 98 | 1650314701154 | 0 | 1 | 86 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532099}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181929015}] | ["science-default", "nuclear"] | 1672557153247 | 1672688961420 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30623408603307145 | Ky0bfuqi5i5xP2B7IZ7O | {"NO": 450.52786680715724, "YES": 648.6071659229409} | 1 | will-david-tennant-be-the-next-doct | 26525.399247612426 | {"NO": 894.5588117982061, "YES": 232} | Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who? | 1666549800000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 905, "YES": 232} | 0 | 0.6807086736666652 | True | play | YES | public | 1644460138093 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Jodie Whittaker regenerates (or otherwise changes) into David Tennant, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-24 7:30 am", "type": "text"}]... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1139.3207492456318, "YES": 454.30688871972774} | {"creatorFee": 184.27689595196037, "platformFee": 18.495551468291442, "liquidityFee": 110.94585656708551} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1667169691471 | 507.3969451988713 | NcyRocks | 1667307582693 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 1650314539642 | 0 | 2 | 96 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1660360102022}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543118}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": ... | ["culture-default", "entertainment", "doctor-who"] | 1666537221028 | 1667307580914 | 0.23465827675082374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14489931885689136 | INgRs8eTwKI7CC3Fl1pJ | {"NO": 82.34303706921742, "YES": 409.9518936472439} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-allow-you-to | 2852.3646261679864 | {"NO": 1049.5209763590515, "YES": 327.2625893481561} | Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01? | 1651319940000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1083, "YES": 334} | 0 | 5.741803649768229 | True | play | NO | public | 1644460352681 | N.C. Young | I dunno if this is the best way to make a feature request, but I wanna try it anyway!
Right now, when you make a bet, you input a dollar amount to put towards "YES" or "NO". There's also a field describing the implied probability before and after your bet.
It seems possible and useful to be able to click on that field... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1364.679759406938, "YES": 564.392464698028} | {"creatorFee": 2.6710103440820556, "platformFee": 0.5055320813230514, "liquidityFee": 1.9466460563695498} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1651529659933 | 101.94664605636954 | NcyRocks | 1644460352681 | 0 | 42 | 1650313887564 | 0 | 1 | 1646591014530 | 0.032916016147105646 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09884314425756947 | PIKwcURkOvZigevLTrjD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09884314425756947 | will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t-871866813da9 | 63466.9348894732 | {"NO": 36882.00528972947, "YES": 6219.059820797329} | Will Russia invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics conclude? | 1645419540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36895, "YES": 5928} | 0 | 4.616277213086889 | True | play | NO | public | 1644461636198 | Predictor 🔥 | This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022.
Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 41830.620665771596, "YES": 10794.961852655964} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645377466414 | 100 | Predictor | 1688045972078 | 0 | 153 | 1715658110486 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401615}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223508}] | ["sports-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.1472416476202968 | 1688045969719 | False | 0.09884314425756947 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.980815604072831 | DaXe4RNUO6ASZNgJYuqV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.980815604072831 | will-norway-win-the-most-total-olym | 9609.489772766488 | {"NO": 218.13470159914095, "YES": 1574.3755256343659} | Will Norway win the most total Olympic medals (Gold, Silver & Bronze) at the 2022 Winter Olympics? | 1645419540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 62.25, "YES": 1727.75} | 0 | 4.641190675981322 | True | play | YES | public | 1644462954297 | Predictor 🔥 | At the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics, will resolve YES of Norway leads in total medal count wins. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 165.2242988517741, "YES": 1885.284034635725} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1645377409737 | 100 | Predictor | 1644462954297 | 0 | 25 | 1715657790250 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398543}] | ["sports-default"] | 1645275230000 | 0.980815604072831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | yXKgttBSGqLiOzLtxh08 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-i-resolve-this-market-as-a-yes | 60 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 55} | Will I resolve this market as a YES? | 1645095540000 | HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 55} | 0 | 4.886312227393626 | True | play | YES | public | 1644464289654 | Mathias Foster | This market resolves as a YES if I resolve it as a YES, and as a NO if I resolve it as a NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 139.82131454109563} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644464380303 | 100 | MathiasFoster | 1644464289654 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c | 1 | 1715658952575 | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | MPzRGS5Ws2dQygd79LcV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01 | does-manifold-markets-allow-wash-tr | 958 | {"NO": 9.9, "YES": 948.1} | Does Manifold Markets allow wash trading and getting the 4% stake? | 1645095540000 | HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9.9, "YES": 948.1} | 0 | 4.661275455322706 | True | play | YES | public | 1644464479453 | Mathias Foster | Let's see. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.4486180817282, "YES": 1052.3236194251272} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10} | 0 | 1644464503235 | 100 | MathiasFoster | 1644464479453 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c | 1 | 1715658013848 | 0 | 1644464596551 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06073246135552913 | Z5sp8dhfckOdyUU4dSl5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06073246135552913 | new-zealand-will-extend-the-date-fo | 113.00000000000003 | {"NO": 43.69999999999999, "YES": 1.2999999999999865} | New Zealand will extend the date for fully-vaccinated people to enter the country from Australia | 1646045940000 | HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 43.7, "YES": 1.3000000000000007} | 0 | 4.910504809655133 | True | play | NO | public | 1644465747375 | Mathias Foster | The NZ Government has announced that it is reopening borders in 5 stages, listed here: https://covid19.govt.nz/international-travel/travel-to-new-zealand/when-new-zealand-borders-open
The current dates are:
Step 1 — 28 February 2022
Step 2 — 14 March 2022
Step 3 — 13 April 2022
Step 4 — July 2022
Step 5 — October 2022... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 140.52793316632818, "YES": 35.733737559902686} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1646068382877 | 100 | MathiasFoster | 1644465747375 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c | 3 | 1715658334931 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1662809903864}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112330}, {"name": "Pol... | ["politics-default", "australia", "nz-politics", "new-zealand"] | 1646012537767 | 0.06073246135552913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2360234004643173 | IcOteSQV7PeAPQc7XvRv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2360234004643173 | will-the-cincinnati-bengals-be-the | 5544.464214230178 | {"NO": 2482.933311610559, "YES": 1114.602474159264} | Will the Cincinnati Bengals be the Super Bowl LVI champions? | 1644843600000 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2461.01, "YES": 1134.99} | 0 | 4.6285506191574175 | True | play | NO | public | 1644465904475 | Quantum Gambler | Resolves YES if the Cincinnati Bengals are the winning team of Super Bowl LVI in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3261.847706717568, "YES": 1741.2984882637993} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302} | 0 | 1644807723694 | 100 | Mirek | 1644465904475 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 25 | 1715657913333 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400184}] | ["sports-default"] | 1644665725420 | 0.2360234004643173 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07601911013105753 | 8g5ZC8SXXPPukQAdpOfd | {"NO": 158.08045379243777, "YES": 674.3810585944034} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-have-over-100 | 1898.829236968045 | {"NO": 650, "YES": 85.65015201151493} | Will manifold markets have over 100,000 users who have placed at least 2 bets by January 2023 | 1667285940000 | aOZQ0GKXMMaAAiOgZBJ1Um1BZNe2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 650, "YES": 93} | 0 | 6.597592592034633 | True | play | NO | public | 1644466670453 | Thomas Liao | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 801.9539960390235, "YES": 234.9062893877254} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1667723695888 | 180 | ThomasLiao | 1667282402337 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxESxvJiMGbzgrTYum_pRa-ORIPboEbchU5K_2s=s96-c | 19 | 1650313821501 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1667282400976 | 1666847647609 | 0.018920679289938142 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1090123504776459 | l3lPwfOkZ0GfBw96i8Pc | {"NO": 186.45458569830825, "YES": 1338.5442497175904} | 0 | will-republicans-control-the-house | 3132.2265363654647 | {"NO": 191.30505862131045, "YES": 46.26397492309931} | Will Republicans control the House of Representatives (US) on Jan 1, 2023 | 1672596000000 | ICxrPEvBMuXRbkxdf03SZ1LiKKA2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 192.1, "YES": 48.900000000000006} | 0 | 4.01979688710024 | True | play | NO | public | 1644478083629 | div | This market will resolve yes if, on January 1st - 2023 - at 12:00 PM CST, greater than 50% of sitting U.S. representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 306.944110937436, "YES": 140.49258047645745} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1672603905151 | 240 | div | 1672597553486 | 0 | 24 | 1650314736707 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503194}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867299}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1672585509570 | 1672597551442 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4974822998046875 | Ov514MTzTTyeBZp8lCit | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4974822998046875 | will-the-largest-bet-in-this-market | 156 | {"NO": 77, "YES": 79} | Will the largest bet in this market be an even number? | 1644892200000 | ICxrPEvBMuXRbkxdf03SZ1LiKKA2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 77, "YES": 79} | 0 | 4.793209607606701 | True | play | NO | public | 1644480676625 | div | This market resolves "YES" if the largest bet made within this market, prior to the resolution time, is of an even number of M$. If the largest bet in this market at that time is an odd number this will resolve to "NO".
This market will resolve at 8:30 CST on February 14, 2022
(PM)
Feb 10, 2:07pm: the largest bet vi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 181.47451611727746, "YES": 180.5630083931922} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644819374953 | 100 | div | 1644480676625 | 0 | 7 | 1715658095464 | 0 | 1644509007859 | 0.4974822998046875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24575705859430977 | Kb2TrACcpD6W6xSi3lNx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-olivia-colman-win-best-actress | 998.0355399333572 | {"NO": 470.9644600666428, "YES": 175} | Will Olivia Colman win Best Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648335540000 | EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 496, "YES": 175} | 0 | 3.7394540937622303 | True | play | NO | public | 1644490966582 | Jake | This market resolves to "YES" if Olivia Colman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 647.8489573674912, "YES": 369.80360209220856} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1650439391074 | 100 | jknowak | 1644490966582 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c | 9 | 1650314536420 | 0 | 1 | 1644877218533 | 0.24575705859430974 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5936772449693699 | b58pnbzQeMOMPD6nEKwd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-dune-win-in-4-or-more-categori | 5506.424076533925 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 848.160236266281} | Will Dune win in 4 or more categories at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648335540000 | EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 185, "YES": 511} | 0 | 2.873451778617793 | True | play | YES | public | 1644491328945 | Jake | This market resolves to 'YES' if 'Dune' wins in 4 or more categories at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
Dune was nominated in 10 categories: best picture, best costume design, best sound, best original score, best adapted screenplay, best film editing, best makeup and hairst... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 600.181566742024, "YES": 725.474717795379} | {"creatorFee": 1.6245947851958318, "platformFee": 0.40614869629895795, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1650439333879 | 100 | jknowak | 1644491328945 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c | 23 | 1650314662844 | 0 | 1 | 1647209661061 | 0.5936772449693699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4482105764183182 | QnfvRxxE2umLrPn3IBOq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4482105764183182 | will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me-abea3405911c | 4404.790446385027 | {"NO": 1630.0926397680935, "YES": 1485.1169138468795} | Will Shaun White win gold in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics? | 1644546300000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1640, "YES": 1049} | 0 | 4.63054954281968 | True | play | NO | public | 1644495874248 | David Glidden | This market resolves to "YES" if USA's Shaun White wins the gold medal in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics, and "NO" if not.
Feb 10, 7:24am: Continuation of https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me that had incorrect end date. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2388.338995300511, "YES": 2152.5355553820577} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1644580700425 | 100 | dglid | 1644495874248 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 10 | 1715658155628 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402087}] | ["sports-default"] | 1644546610641 | 0.4482105764183182 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9048862140949637 | NZA0dEVIN0iPFzKQInNh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9048862140949637 | will-david-do-1350-or-more-pushups | 866 | {"NO": 136, "YES": 730} | Will David do 1,350 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 13th? | 1644814740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 136, "YES": 730} | 0 | 4.665559851261275 | True | play | YES | public | 1644498329576 | David Glidden | I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Wednesday, February 9th, I had done 1,252 push-ups. How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 13th?
Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row “Sun, Feb 13” on the below sprea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 297.91945220142975, "YES": 918.9124006128114} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644776979795 | 100 | dglid | 1644498329576 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 10 | 1715658053086 | 0 | 1644628175717 | 0.9048862140949637 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07527681862998024 | CWyVcaegRRBLL3E8pCRK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07527681862998024 | will-davids-tweet-about-this-market | 1666.731108665231 | {"NO": 611.268891334769, "YES": 78} | Will David's tweet about this market get 15 or more retweets? | 1644843600000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 595, "YES": 78} | 0 | 4.676506881412308 | True | play | NO | public | 1644499435445 | David Glidden | Resolves to "YES" if the tweet about this market in the edit below has 15 or more retweets by the time I plan to check it at 8:30am ET Monday, February 14th. Market closes 30 minutes prior to reduce risk of manipulation.
Feb 10, 8:23am: Tweet: https://twitter.com/dglid/status/1491764956009742340 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 758.9809195422682, "YES": 216.5487164579563} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644844805959 | 100 | dglid | 1644499435445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 18 | 1715657766714 | 0 | 0.07527681862998024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4310054150057756 | qHkjZaoUvVNN0m5Aqowv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4310054150057756 | this-market-will-resolve-to-minorit | 678 | {"NO": 484, "YES": 190} | This market will resolve to minority | 1644692340000 | KHsT0CwajZO9zSFDvgKyHjzy2b13 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 484, "YES": 190} | 0 | 4.677679998983989 | True | play | YES | public | 1644506070786 | Asim | prob = %chance at market closure
prob >= 50% -> resolves to no
prob < 50% -> resolves to yes
If prob is greater than or equal to 50%, this market will resolve to no
If prob is less than 50%, this market will resolve to yes | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 583.8415881041706, "YES": 508.138760576282} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644697402282 | 100 | Asim | 1644506070786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh3YHqLXFHHMHEH6VIbqb6Sq4CvXMJ6sAGEDCFp=s96-c | 6 | 1715658730287 | 0 | 0.4310054150057756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | 9t2F0CbMUfskKqmJM4G1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.99 | this-market-will-resolve-prob-with | 803.1052537512907 | {"NO": 14.9, "YES": 227.99474624870936} | This market will resolve PROB with probability 10% greater than the closing probability, modulo 100 if necessary. | 1645765140000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14.9, "YES": 235.1} | 0 | 4.7510534188469125 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644508347923 | Tom | e.g. If the closing probability is 10% this market will resolve to 20%, if its 50% it will resolve to 60%, if its 90% it will resolve to YES, and if its 95% it will resolve to 5%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 114.72988914178856, "YES": 323.13133481988353} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10} | 0 | 1645808198882 | 100 | toms | 1644508347923 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 10 | 1715657685490 | 0 | 1 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04468062957022115 | m8q5ohzfjca3fcWHmq5h | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04468062957022115 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-93500-on | 3164.9741212914705 | {"NO": 2427.0258787085295, "YES": 410} | Will TSLA close at or over $935.00 on February 10, 2022? | 1644526800000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2491, "YES": 410} | 0 | 4.631998407185998 | True | play | NO | public | 1644508535254 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $935.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2870.662030722084, "YES": 620.8224525370927} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1644526877945 | 100 | Predictor | 1644508535254 | 0 | 8 | 1715658638767 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425998}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575126}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 1644509850673 | 0.04468062957022115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7388137443763035 | jgeMIpMpaDRRIgBBzjv7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7388137443763035 | will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f | 672.6154031332898 | {"NO": 151, "YES": 422.38459686671024} | Will inflation be 0.6% or higher in February? | 1646891940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 151, "YES": 422} | 0 | 4.686693624942784 | True | play | YES | public | 1644515043592 | Manifold | This market resolves based on the CPI change for February 2022, which will be released in a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 10th: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
For context, November's inflation was 0.8%, December's was 0.5%, and January's was 0.6%.
Mar 10, 11:01am: The new CPI numbers just came out! Febr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 344.14252252809825, "YES": 578.8028502740283} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1646931809011 | 100 | Manifold | 1644515043592 | 0 | 19 | 1715658581512 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574312}] | ["economics-default"] | 1646711693529 | 0.7388137443763035 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.057577785967619255 | YjQ2nAXtizAOw1ewrJMf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.057577785967619255 | will-the-canadian-armed-forces-inte | 3071.6974514294643 | {"NO": 2034.1311807155398, "YES": 428.1713678549959} | Will the Canadian armed forces intervene in the current trucker protests in Canada before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST? | 1646110860000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2100, "YES": 445} | 0 | 4.634442530262306 | True | play | NO | public | 1644523511679 | littlebubulle | This market resolves to YES if the Canadian government deploys any number of Canadian armed forces to intervene in the current trucker protest (the freedom convoy). "YES" also includes the Canadian armed forces being ordered to HELP the protesters. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2487.4431611013906, "YES": 614.834018822141} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1646111176697 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1644523511679 | 0 | 31 | 1715658330700 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492913}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645671624492 | 0.057577785967619255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08277560757624725 | xYVyscwCe8cARnbGj7hn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08277560757624725 | will-tsla-close-at-or-over-91000-on | 9567.23774923767 | {"NO": 5757.225778540056, "YES": 1405.5364722222707} | Will TSLA close at or over $910.00 on February 11, 2022? | 1644613200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5809.1, "YES": 1419.9} | 0 | 4.621980889641044 | True | play | NO | public | 1644527464186 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $910.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6964.2587162547325, "YES": 2060.7804454061143} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1644613703071 | 100 | Predictor | 1644527464186 | 0 | 15 | 1715658918037 | 0 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529426235}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578024}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 1644610091092 | 0.08277560757624725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9919524135123317 | x6MrAfMLlyT0m9hFmbxD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9919524135123317 | will-this-market-have-m15000-invest | 108780.80830195759 | {"NO": 2578.0658054220635, "YES": 54069.12589262036} | Will this market have M$15,000 invested by February 25th? | 1645830000000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1801, "YES": 54865} | 0 | 4.6160012220137 | True | play | YES | public | 1644533672511 | Duncn | By the end of the day (EST) February 25th, will a total of at least M$ 15,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market?
#meta #shortterm #fun
Feb 22, 8:16pm: To clarify, this markets stays open until Feb 25th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 5090.696437144574, "YES": 56518.39147922754} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645830313682 | 100 | Duncn | 1644533672511 | 0 | 127 | 1715658899874 | 0 | 1645814912870 | 0.9919524135123317 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6808427904874867 | hjrv9eygoGOuddqJyBe5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6808427904874867 | will-the-final-implied-probability | 307.32537900895636 | {"NO": 86.93474752637724, "YES": 145.73987346466637} | Will the final implied probability of this market be even? | 1645181940000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 87, "YES": 146} | 0 | 4.754944591700243 | True | play | YES | public | 1644534498573 | N.C. Young | After this market closes, I'll look at the implied probability. If it's an even number, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 187.9412021235227, "YES": 274.5004699374843} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645220495157 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1644534498573 | 0 | 14 | 1715658547591 | 0 | 1 | 0.6808427904874867 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34398610578383454 | BxfQjsXp8d3wQmCAYe1a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.34398610578383454 | will-manifold-market-questions-be-s | 990.0005987486655 | {"NO": 433.03575876907576, "YES": 272.9636424822587} | Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022? | 1645160340000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 435, "YES": 282} | 0 | 4.675270980379594 | True | play | YES | public | 1644536469681 | Sam | Manifold Market is a prediction markets platform with great promise! Currently its user base is small and mostly comprised of people who work directly on it or who are interested in novel forms of prediction markets. MM's unique spin on prediction markets is that anyone can create and resolve their own questions, there... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 652.8166733546939, "YES": 472.7212982377895} | {"creatorFee": 16.959976050053374, "platformFee": 4.2399940125133435, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 38.72983346207417, "YES": 92.19544457292888} | 0 | 1649043193619 | 100 | sam | 1644536469681 | 0 | 25 | 1715657738922 | 0 | 1 | 1645112486674 | 0.34398610578383454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5626697698481483 | hgt6OlLMpySOq8qax67I | {"NO": 276.7874763170655, "YES": 268.52392701645033} | 1 | will-england-make-the-quarter-final | 1854.695995955072 | {"NO": 800, "YES": 365.94146292289133} | Will England make the quarter finals of the FIFA World Cup 2022? | 1668776340000 | OQiNl8okFcXQg48aW0l5NhG82Zp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 800, "YES": 366} | 0 | 1.1532445815041736 | True | play | YES | public | 1644544962870 | Andrew Sayer | Will England be able to make the quarter finals of the FIFA World Cup 2022? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 983.8699100999074, "YES": 796.6227385327073} | {"creatorFee": 3.800100152426642, "platformFee": 0.13179376303213314, "liquidityFee": 0.7907625781927987} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1670322675284 | 280.7907625781928 | AndrewSayer | 1668832518565 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghsv5wNW2k_Ts27x5nns-n6Q8unl6IP9LBJQh9Vk8M=s96-c | 30 | 1650314717582 | 0 | 2 | 30 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406167}] | ["sports-default"] | 1668766197693 | 1668832516489 | 0.5701135067631161 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42918390593763395 | YL9vfm6TYuCZyykBrPnl | {"NO": 33.63025935754396, "YES": 426.04008735093964} | 0 | will-amc-shares-exceed-the-current | 684.677165349739 | {"NO": 224.26456404437374, "YES": 185.4196712258938} | Will AMC shares exceed the current 52 week high and set a new high before September 5, 2022? | 1662354000000 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 226, "YES": 190} | 0 | 3.5839633288142507 | True | play | NO | public | 1644551709158 | Dustin | This market resolves to “YES” if the 52 week high for ticker AMC is greater than $72.62 at any time before September 5, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 385.0785303269034, "YES": 333.90499421887887} | {"creatorFee": 0.5157718949875644, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1662491228676 | 100 | Dustin | 1662178755186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 13 | 1650314637874 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1662178753771 | 0.05602568163677095 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8556452575116207 | EfOhraEjlW2BgItBVi9J | {"NO": 714.5287159585978, "YES": 58.26026062858786} | 1 | will-i-be-living-in-sf-by-the-end-o | 933.8998470213265 | {"NO": 74, "YES": 18} | Will I be living in SF by the end of the year? | 1672462740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 74, "YES": 18} | 0 | 7.075758005802101 | True | play | YES | public | 1644552733448 | Austin |
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 162.29602582934677, "YES": 102.58654882585729} | {"creatorFee": 4.198487932501538, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1672778765895 | 160 | Austin | 1672074444856 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 20 | 1650313862878 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1672074444704 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3 | lk8d4ojrS2rLbIrWg6bq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3 | will-this-markets-implied-probabili | 100 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 30} | Will this market’s implied probability be greater than it’s initial probability? | 1645160340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 30} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | NO | public | 1644555426780 | Garrett Baker | This market resolves YES if the final implied probability ends up greater than the initial (30%), and NO otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103323} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1644555779079 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644555426780 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 1 | 1715658624877 | 0 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01 | vI7Top6XRbsEHnLg1IDg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01 | will-manifold-markets-suffer-from-s | 1011 | {"NO": 1009.9, "YES": 1.1} | Will Manifold Markets suffer from self-dealing? | 1644685140000 | hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1009.9, "YES": 1.1} | 0 | 4.659122335647472 | True | play | YES | public | 1644565983399 | Connor McCormick | This market resolves true if at least one person creates a market with the explicit purpose of moving money from another account to their main account.
I spent $5 to create this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1109.945494157258, "YES": 48.394214530251446} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10} | 0 | 1644566087578 | 100 | ConnorMcCormick | 1644565983399 | 0 | 2 | 1715658849124 | 0 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10466986215739532 | X0wj7GFifA6ZPjXOSGHV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.10466986215739532 | when-the-mask-mandate-in-alameda-co | 1258.5124330793822 | {"NO": 879.5653108530919, "YES": 179.92225606752595} | When the mask mandate in Alameda County officially disappears on February 16, will I be able to go grocery shopping at the Berkeley Bowl without wearing a mask? | 1645689540000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 896, "YES": 174} | 0 | 4.65732131423595 | True | play | NO | public | 1644566553297 | Alicorn | I will go to Berkeley Bowl East and check for signage, or have a housemate do so, sometime in the week following the end of the mask mandate. If there are no signs asking vaccinated patrons to wear masks, and no staffperson of the store complains about my masklessness beyond asking to see my vax card, this market reso... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1117.1618625292438, "YES": 310.42034526378075} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645406776287 | 100 | Alicorn | 1644566553297 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 17 | 1715658283772 | 0 | 1644970339515 | 0.10466986215739532 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17627471383975024 | WHeYs0QGxtDNeg5rX64n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17627471383975024 | will-the-new-york-times-count-new-y | 55 | {"NO": 51.5, "YES": 3.5} | Will the New York Times count New York City as the lightest yellow Covid level by end-of March? | 1648745940000 | hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51.5, "YES": 3.5} | 0 | 4.893920819158259 | True | play | NO | public | 1644567267436 | Connor McCormick | See tweet for images:
The color code of the lightest yellow is #F3DF91, as of time of writing it is
Tweet with images is here: https://twitter.com/connormcmk/status/1492049720495448065?s=20&t=C2jvqdiOW2s5yYdEgnVvJg | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 140.67693485429658, "YES": 65.07687761409578} | {"creatorFee": 0.14000000000000015, "platformFee": 0.03500000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1649177476543 | 100 | ConnorMcCormick | 1644567267436 | 0 | 3 | 1715658260568 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}] | ["medicine"] | 0.17627471383975024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4550777339153701 | QPLCgDpsxrwarUrbTjY4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4550777339153701 | is-it-somewhat-unintuitive-to-go-to | 2211.085622884568 | {"NO": 660.1201855964346, "YES": 844.7941915189976} | Is it somewhat unintuitive to go to the Manifold Markets Home page in order to create new markets? | 1645376340000 | hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 660, "YES": 845} | 0 | 4.645789971104762 | True | play | NO | public | 1644568082784 | Connor McCormick | This market will return YES if the market is 85% YES (or more) at close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1184.7293416199975, "YES": 1082.6664052128256} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1645471813838 | 100 | ConnorMcCormick | 1644568082784 | 0 | 26 | 1715658147548 | 0 | 1 | 1645377297583 | 0.4550777339153701 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9526394366148747 | C0KTSRR5eTEq4WP1ia6V | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9526394366148747 | indian-elections-will-the-incumbent | 763.1635459945462 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 646.8364540054538} | Indian Elections: Will the incumbent BJP win the Uttar Pradesh state election? | 1646677740000 | oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 650} | 0 | 4.6744966587519095 | True | play | YES | public | 1644571464377 | hawkebia | Indias largest state Uttar Pradesh is holding state assembly elections from 10 February to 7 March 2022. The results will be declared on 10 March 2022. The BJP is the incumbent party in the state. It is also the party to which the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs.
This will resolve to YES if the BJP is decl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 177.76388834631177, "YES": 797.2589244355963} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1646933523310 | 100 | hawkebia | 1644571464377 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c | 11 | 1715657743785 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476611}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243739}] | ["politics-default", "india"] | False | 0.9526394366148747 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8273449180182777 | kGeP1hghZrCY1MGQ9ATr | {"NO": 1003.0846496124877, "YES": 998.1164972227406} | 0.8280530184103855 | ill-die-someday | 2096.6686641335928 | {"NO": 47.46, "YES": 225.5914437818568} | I'll die someday. | 32525773140000 | hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47.46, "YES": 247.54} | 0 | 9.757207867835472 | False | basic | public | 1644576538514 | Connor McCormick | This market resolves to YES if I prove to be mortal. Or at least if I die before the year 3000.
My sense is that I'm going to be fine. I'm still quite young considering how long I've lived. | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 147.92404431857491, "YES": 342.47022764054105} | {"creatorFee": 1.2369141486632043, "platformFee": 0.5879883626049366, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 98.99494936611666, "YES": 14.142135623730951} | 0 | 1000 | ConnorMcCormick | 1714042040802 | 0 | 27 | 1650314732562 | 0 | 24 | [] | [] | 1714042037383 | 1687037980863 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16630801980656212 | 1uFeb7ShOE9pFn0nTfmE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.16630801980656212 | will-i-watch-a-single-olympics-even | 194 | {"NO": 159, "YES": 35} | Will I watch a single Olympics event before the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics? | 1645203540000 | hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 159, "YES": 35} | 0 | 4.771935604203332 | True | play | NO | public | 1644577397969 | Connor McCormick | This resolves to YES if I watch (on any platform, YouTube, Twitter, webstream, TV in a bar) at least one Olympic event. Accidentally watching it counts, but if it's on in the background of a bar and I don't pay attention to it it doesn't.
Basically, if I find out that the podium results of any event and I watched the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 268.4418000237668, "YES": 119.895788082818} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1645320259585 | 100 | ConnorMcCormick | 1644577397969 | 0 | 8 | 1715656905118 | 0 | 1 | 0.16630801980656212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8603315090749009 | 7B1bB8PCt85m8Y0iQFWE | {"NO": 524.2025308496951, "YES": 76.41781439490225} | 1 | will-the-federal-funds-rate-exceed | 1553.3801504263909 | {"NO": 242, "YES": 900.7825377364632} | Will the Federal Funds Rate exceed 1.25% in 2022? | 1655346839799 | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 242, "YES": 913} | 0 | 6.193120438412249 | True | play | YES | public | 1644590526629 | Dustin | This market resolves to “YES” if the Federal Funds Rate goes higher than 1.25% at any point before January 1, 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 464.45577022096006, "YES": 1152.731223491035} | {"creatorFee": 0.11677841520263428, "platformFee": 0.02919460380065857, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 72.11102550927978, "YES": 69.2820323027551} | 0 | 1655346839799 | 100 | Dustin | 1655247009809 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 13 | 1650313810926 | 0 | 1655247009570 | 0.9768809621085168 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30434944120942337 | wuzrFihUNaJBnX4cbV7L | {"NO": 51.24542000584407, "YES": 518.7249937676344} | 0 | will-my-dad-receive-his-ford-maveri | 579.9815553381519 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 57} | Will my dad receive his Ford Maverick pick-up by May 2022? | 1651377660000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 57} | 0 | 3.809449191228549 | True | play | NO | public | 1644594809815 | Sam | My dad, age 67, has always wanted a pickup. He grew up on a small working dairy/crop farm in the midwest but moved to a large city and had no need for a pickup. 40+ years later, he still lives in a city, and he still really doesn't need one, but he bought one anyways!
He purchased a Ford Maverick from a local dealersh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 230.26072179162475, "YES": 153.97727104998322} | {"creatorFee": 1.8082790462260523, "platformFee": 0.3013798410376754, "liquidityFee": 1.8082790462260523} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1651456298655 | 101.80827904622606 | sam | 1644594809815 | 0 | 7 | 1650314815345 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577518}] | ["economics-default"] | 1651348841308 | 1651345694822 | 0.04143074553185059 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01140623037367915 | DkAFIbBAkWWvVFZTEoKV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.01140623037367915 | will-this-question-resolve-at-an-im | 18863.658007109618 | {"NO": 13376.99744587839, "YES": 1099.3445470119914} | Will this question resolve at an implied probability greater than 50%? | 1645246740000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 13419, "YES": 781} | 0 | 4.618544745707722 | True | play | NO | public | 1644601740919 | Garrett Baker | (note: this is almost a copy of a previous question I made, but when I made that I didn't know I had paid M$100 to start it, and didn't want to subsidize the market as much as I did)
This will resolve YES if after 1 week, the implied probability is greater than 50%, and NO otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 14542.0443793248, "YES": 999.3453674518139} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645246767677 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644601740919 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 29 | 1715657796491 | 0 | 1645209354479 | 0.01140623037367915 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8383614372373739 | RQsPBVakBTykz7F4eLiW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8383614372373739 | the-protestors-in-ottawa-will-be-re | 1441.1538810641011 | {"NO": 225.84611893589886, "YES": 955} | The protestors in Ottawa will be removed (forcibly or willingly) before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST. | 1645246740000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 235, "YES": 955} | 0 | 4.653399885979959 | True | play | YES | public | 1644604382905 | littlebubulle | This market resolves to "YES" if the streets cease to be blocked by the protestors before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST and normal operations resume. The market will still resolve to "YES" if, between their removal and March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST, the protestors come back.
Feb 18, 3:08pm: I will possibly close this mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 514.9551985356187, "YES": 1172.7693395950869} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1645280982184 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1644604382905 | 0 | 20 | 1715658169465 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486524}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645209209581 | 0.8383614372373739 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35554112745494315 | fih3FPrRi82CfKS8mwim | {"NO": 477.44730222804037, "YES": 5.886891300424509} | 1 | will-the-golden-enclaves-reveal-tha | 2827.459515517883 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 28} | Will "The Golden Enclaves" reveal that maw-mouths come from creating enclaves? | 1664261940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33, "YES": 28} | 0 | 3.5820400997810675 | True | play | YES | public | 1644609039878 | charlie | Naomi Novak's "The Golden Enclaves", final book of the Scholomance trilogy, comes out 9/27/22. It promises to reveal "the dire truth on which the enclaves and the whole stability of the magical world are founded." One fan theory is that this dire truth is that enclaves are the source of maw-mouths, particularly horribl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 129.24782396620841, "YES": 96.00000000000001} | {"creatorFee": 0.6034009639456597, "platformFee": 0.0035201202279858228, "liquidityFee": 0.021120721367914937} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1669502696721 | 100.02112072136792 | charlie | 1664256640415 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 20 | 1650314702308 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559697}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669224013042}] | ["books", "fiction"] | 1664256640230 | 0.9781391730167328 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9381333932951854 | rZK5Ei7CNsPBAG7oanhc | {"NO": 838.1140224940092, "YES": 88.24008096551029} | 1 | will-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-alive-on | 5799.0641535769955 | {"NO": 244.76219853115504, "YES": 2205.9416817889132} | Will Queen Elizabeth II be alive on May 1st, 2022? | 1651388340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 244.5, "YES": 2229.5} | 0 | 10.38345993326458 | True | play | YES | public | 1644609485278 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if Queen Elizabeth II is alive as of May 1st, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 635.9841166042252, "YES": 2470.144629066685} | {"creatorFee": 1.6231684922640874, "platformFee": 0.3468203186027347, "liquidityFee": 0.7076616535594462} | {"NO": 22.36067977499791, "YES": 97.46794344808963} | 0 | 1652015778197 | 100.70766165355944 | charlie | 1685821170832 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 56 | 1650314779613 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507486}] | ["politics-default"] | 1651378959050 | 1685821167727 | 0.99310475734316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8889213534082779 | zPslGmfLgBnHyBbmwFQd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8889213534082779 | will-manifold-markets-add-a-creatio | 1282.98838649798 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 207.01161350202} | Will Manifold Markets add a creation link to the "No markets found. Why not create one?" message by 3/1/22? | 1646207940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 220} | 0 | 4.761361040737972 | True | play | YES | public | 1644609952095 | charlie | When searching on the Markets page, the message "No markets found. Why not create one?" can appear. This message, however, does not include a link to do so.
This market resolves YES if, by 3/1/22, the message does include a link to a page for creating a market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.65509926170151, "YES": 298.88687340723766} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1645153511684 | 100 | charlie | 1644609952095 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 12 | 1715658972340 | 0 | 1645151671755 | 0.8889213534082779 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33087384259259267 | JKJODfroe7oURtJfFrHE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.33087384259259267 | will-kristen-stewart-win-best-actre | 126 | {"NO": 27.5, "YES": 16.5} | Will Kristen Stewart win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648364340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27.5, "YES": 16.5} | 0 | 4.912273172347273 | True | play | NO | public | 1644610566470 | charlie | This market resolves to "YES" if Kristen Stewart wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 117.79218989389744, "YES": 82.83115355951527} | {"creatorFee": 0.66, "platformFee": 0.165, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1648461205932 | 100 | charlie | 1644610566470 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 4 | 1715657934462 | 0 | 1 | 0.33087384259259267 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44999999999999996 | HzA5zPtItrIcQLX8EblI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44999999999999996 | will-nicole-kidman-win-best-actress | 100 | {"NO": 55.00000000000001, "YES": 45} | Will Nicole Kidman win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1645257540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55.00000000000001, "YES": 45} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644610695776 | charlie | This market resolves to "YES" if Nicole Kidman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 148.32396974191326, "YES": 134.16407864998737} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | 0 | 1644610794241 | 100 | charlie | 1644610695776 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 1 | 1715657897056 | 0 | 0.44999999999999996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8055555555555556 | B7lYFmx17M4Nj2O7ookf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8055555555555556 | during-my-twitch-stream-on-the-game | 140 | {"NO": 26.999999999999993, "YES": 113} | During my Twitch Stream on the game Sea Of Thieves, my crew will get attacked by another player crew. | 1644714000000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 26.999999999999993, "YES": 113} | 0 | 4.804004003587409 | True | play | YES | public | 1644610810053 | littlebubulle | On 12 Feb 2022, I will be playing Sea of Thieves with friends and stream it in twitch at https://www.twitch.tv/littlebubulle from about 12h30 to 18h00 EST.
During the game, which is a multiplayer game, there is a possibility that our crew of players will be attacked by another crew of players.
This market will resol... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.83005244258362, "YES": 215.40659228538016} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 26.4575131106459, "YES": 96.43650760992955} | 0 | 1644691720785 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1644610810053 | 0 | 3 | 1715657724984 | 0 | 0.8055555555555556 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44203513314074816 | HH2y5PxdVHe3i1PUVisd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.44203513314074816 | will-nicole-kidman-win-best-actress-0ea0617fed59 | 832.765762909292 | {"NO": 303.22396321755105, "YES": 182.01027387315696} | Will Nicole Kidman win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648364340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 305.5, "YES": 186.5} | 0 | 4.697034960258846 | True | play | NO | public | 1644610840344 | charlie | This market resolves to "YES" if Nicole Kidman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 437.1526867964059, "YES": 389.0972123902027} | {"creatorFee": 7.189369483628321, "platformFee": 1.7973423709070802, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | 0 | 1648461228804 | 100 | charlie | 1644610840344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 10 | 1715657881124 | 0 | 1 | 1645835718546 | 0.44203513314074816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0734232380922909 | kyNPyTwlf4Gd4fNmPjOl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0734232380922909 | will-lady-gaga-win-best-actress-at | 1403.118836044317 | {"NO": 272.15040487642494, "YES": 46.730759079257865} | Will Lady Gaga win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | 1648364340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 306.1, "YES": 15.900000000000006} | 0 | 4.72775546596102 | True | play | NO | public | 1644610924663 | charlie | This market resolves to "YES" if Lady Gaga wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 403.21022209442674, "YES": 113.50306742740783} | {"creatorFee": 0.5112465582273148, "platformFee": 0.1278116395568287, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 84.26149773176358, "YES": 53.85164807134504} | 0 | 1648461219312 | 100 | charlie | 1644610924663 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 13 | 1715658608798 | 0 | 1 | 0.0734232380922909 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9727096926118963 | 2MmOKcze2hUow1ngcQIy | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9727096926118963 | will-the-glowfic-thread-project-law | 4707.105003115226 | {"NO": 272.4453175433082, "YES": 1954.4496793414658} | Will the glowfic thread "project lawful and their oblivious boyfriend" be marked complete in February? | 1646121540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 263.5, "YES": 2175.5} | 0 | 4.636376250924186 | True | play | YES | public | 1644611613089 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if the glowfic thread at https://glowfic.com/posts/5508 is marked as COMPLETE before 3/1/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 384.3978939139457, "YES": 2294.9245272300163} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1645534214491 | 100 | charlie | 1644611613089 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 18 | 1715656919619 | 0 | 1645512839181 | 0.9727096926118963 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6422214311142755 | ocanBWloQRkyzESiTC9J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6422214311142755 | if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w | 218 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 138} | If we guess “STAGE” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644620340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 138} | 0 | 4.760938753458433 | True | play | NO | public | 1644611698776 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 190.2104098097683, "YES": 254.8411269791436} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644647747318 | 100 | Manifold | 1644611698776 | 0 | 5 | 1715658684954 | 0 | 0.6422214311142755 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4424915452653486 | V7gRCKyiGkpVVRf3wKV3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4424915452653486 | if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w | 148 | {"NO": 83, "YES": 65} | If we guess “IGLOO” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644620340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 83, "YES": 65} | 0 | 4.798447604137232 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644611699518 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 185.17289218457435, "YES": 164.9696941865384} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644623339947 | 100 | Manifold | 1644611699518 | 0 | 3 | 1715658237638 | 0 | 0.4424915452653486 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6046752757093035 | pNz6hBTZM660AXut8EnI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6046752757093035 | if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w | 209 | {"NO": 84, "YES": 125} | If we guess “BONER” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644620340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 84, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.76487660187771 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644611699900 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 194.2832983043061, "YES": 240.28108539791475} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644623329066 | 100 | Manifold | 1644611699900 | 0 | 6 | 1715658712230 | 0 | 0.6046752757093035 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2544744951205104 | P9VuZiUYWfCFtZF6g0lF | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2544744951205104 | will-we-finish-this-wordle-in-4-rou | 597 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 212} | Will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644708123000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 212} | 0 | 4.68435230841058 | True | play | NO | public | 1644611700426 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 601.8164171904916, "YES": 351.6048918886084} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644647738137 | 100 | Manifold | 1644611700426 | 0 | 9 | 1715658104465 | 0 | 1644636649452 | 0.2544744951205104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4678527586235055 | j8QZiZJXbOKsW5DvnHNv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4678527586235055 | will-mondays-xkcd-have-more-than-on | 538.209847676341 | {"NO": 226, "YES": 215.7901523236589} | Will Monday's xkcd have more than one panel? | 1644825540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 226, "YES": 214} | 0 | 4.7033159592342155 | True | play | YES | public | 1644612303919 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/14/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 395.227371925196, "YES": 370.58318045480206} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1644905265694 | 100 | charlie | 1644612303919 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 18 | 1715658565590 | 0 | 0.4678527586235055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.015580785998292008 | dDvtjDKt0HFv6R34kG1r | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.015580785998292008 | will-there-be-more-than-one-public | 288.26786466442024 | {"NO": 274.5, "YES": 7.2321353355797555} | Will there be more than one public Astral Codex Ten post on 2/15/22? | 1644998340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 274.5, "YES": 3.5} | 0 | 4.738055202912331 | True | play | NO | public | 1644613458454 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if there is more than one public post on astralcodexten.substack.com/ on 2/15/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 378.74661714660897, "YES": 47.64895746877771} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1644992365779 | 100 | charlie | 1644613458454 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 7 | 1715658458789 | 0 | 0.015580785998292008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45746691871455575 | hc09FSBlbUphavMmhElm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.45746691871455575 | will-manifold-markets-guess-boner-i | 15 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 5} | Will Manifold Markets guess BONER in round 1 of this Wordle? | 1644649140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 5} | 0 | 4.974821181696528 | True | play | NO | public | 1644615604046 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w . | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 84.70537173048709, "YES": 77.78174593052023} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644620411251 | 100 | charlie | 1644615604046 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 2 | 1715658546373 | 0 | 0.45746691871455575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4000000000000001 | 272Q4YHxmdR06EB8Of5J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4000000000000001 | will-manifold-markets-guess-stage-i | 10 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 4} | Will Manifold Markets guess STAGE in round 1 of this Wordle? | 1644649140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6, "YES": 4} | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | YES | public | 1644615678012 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w . | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 85.20563361656316, "YES": 69.57010852370435} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1644620423704 | 100 | charlie | 1644615678012 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 1 | 1715656916131 | 0 | 0.4000000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10000000000000002 | 4YSuLlifcKNqU3uiNjhv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.10000000000000002 | will-manifold-markets-guess-igloo-i | 10 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 1} | Will Manifold Markets guess IGLOO in round 1 of this Wordle? | 1644649140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9, "YES": 1} | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | NO | public | 1644615733264 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w . | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 104.35516278555652, "YES": 34.785054261852174} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1644620416862 | 100 | charlie | 1644615733264 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 1 | 1715656978588 | 0 | 0.10000000000000002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6559224670787422 | M92qkdUfWzSeRHC6RIf7 | {"NO": 86.95959847216307, "YES": 107.60494548665736} | 0.39 | what-will-the-amazon-lord-of-the-ri | 160 | {"NO": 50.5, "YES": 93.5} | What will the Amazon Lord of the Rings TV show's average audience score on Rotten Tomatoes be one month after the first episode airs? | 1662120000000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50.5, "YES": 93.5} | 0 | 3.0769292783575906 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644616556277 | Kira | Resolved as a probability corresponding to the score. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 143.1258187749506, "YES": 197.61325866449346} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1668214471535 | 100 | Kira | 1668214462309 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 9 | 1650314548398 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860909402}] | ["media-rating-futures"] | 1662037154103 | 1668214461543 | 0.39 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.72050524052674 | pMQ3P6o8s7kttn2mLm3l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.72050524052674 | will-two-or-more-people-show-up-to | 205 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 140} | Will two or more people show up to my house tomorrow for cheerful harberger? | 1644714000000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 65, "YES": 140} | 0 | 4.766695987472906 | True | play | YES | public | 1644620017865 | Em ✨ | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/bmrrKbKTBkg5MxtRB/cheerful-harberger-day | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 258.89186931999234} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1644709767201 | 100 | hamnox | 1644620017865 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 6 | 1715658706040 | 0 | 0.72050524052674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010131629888022086 | 1M7e1xXJjvbMjsDfvneQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010131629888022086 | will-alicorn-post-a-short-story-in | 1041.1361172782167 | {"NO": 910.11429643675, "YES": 16.749586285033274} | Will Alicorn post a short story in February? | 1646121540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 911.5, "YES": 12.5} | 0 | 4.662641540540706 | True | play | NO | public | 1644620220809 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if a new short story appears on http://alicorn.elcenia.com/stories/stories.shtml during February 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1021.6487372092215, "YES": 103.36000869417217} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1646129167314 | 100 | charlie | 1644620220809 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 16 | 1715656894278 | 0 | 1 | 1645080018657 | 0.010131629888022086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04905912635809528 | oVuRm69na3yCFk8JfVGm | {"NO": 268.6988982954994, "YES": 2235.377403874476} | 0 | will-russia-control-the-majority-of | 34481.02922310962 | {"NO": 9526.009435740503, "YES": 2411.247076108226} | Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023? | 1672527600000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9647, "YES": 2420} | 0 | 2.542331442737087 | True | play | NO | public | 1644621373801 | Duncn | Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year?
Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11390.079523150527, "YES": 3893.794137900918} | {"creatorFee": 28.842444654649302, "platformFee": 3.016817140545206, "liquidityFee": 12.06210049577361} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1672588910672 | 300.0049335712065 | Duncn | 1672136653488 | 0 | 186 | 1650314759162 | 0 | 1 | 165 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1666311979010}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1666311977628}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w... | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "free-money"] | 1672136653334 | 1667330358111 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42603550295858 | V9ftiPgDnD2WgEyq01hj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.42603550295858 | will-the-glowfic-thread-off-of-that | 30 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 10} | Will the glowfic thread 'off of that dark precipice' update on or before its anniversary? | 1644641940000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.939478067851447 | True | play | YES | public | 1644623192492 | Blazer | This market resolves to YES if the glowfic thread at https://glowfic.com/posts/4342 receives at least one tag before midnight ET on the date one year after it was created. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 98.48857801796103, "YES": 84.8528137423857} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644631951065 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1644623192492 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 2 | 1715658239106 | 0 | 0.42603550295858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5641149734870802 | K9PJ5sA4zd38UjVNnmcU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5641149734870802 | if-we-guess-harpy-in-round-2-will-w | 118 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 67} | If we guess “HARPY” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644627540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 67} | 0 | 4.821185416254534 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644623302725 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 143.9270648627283, "YES": 163.7345412550449} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 60, "YES": 80} | 0 | 1644628704681 | 100 | Manifold | 1644623302725 | 0 | 3 | 1715657948631 | 0 | 0.5641149734870802 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6177685950413223 | c745wLpTCvorHkXu5LBR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6177685950413223 | if-we-guess-adorn-in-round-2-will-w | 120 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 74} | If we guess “ADORN” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644627540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46, "YES": 74} | 0 | 4.819494920240895 | True | play | NO | public | 1644623303163 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 136.01470508735443, "YES": 172.91616465790582} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 60, "YES": 80} | 0 | 1644647769707 | 100 | Manifold | 1644623303163 | 0 | 3 | 1715658412942 | 0 | 0.6177685950413223 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5735969947178735 | smuTbjxrVWbCYoGVfjdE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5735969947178735 | if-we-guess-valor-in-round-2-will-w | 129 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 74} | If we guess “VALOR” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644627540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 74} | 0 | 4.8122197799358135 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644623303591 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.53594885511643, "YES": 173.4358671094304} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 60, "YES": 80} | 0 | 1644628695438 | 100 | Manifold | 1644623303591 | 0 | 4 | 1715658794419 | 0 | 0.5735969947178735 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38265092701728515 | 2LRo2jO8Ms8FrkXoC191 | {"NO": 125.26328402450952, "YES": 614.9838712277541} | 0 | will-i-glowfic-thread-with-someone | 1108.2416536129547 | {"NO": 112.98604320330816, "YES": 153.6085808736298} | Will I glowfic thread with someone before the end of the year | 1672560000000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 113, "YES": 161} | 0 | 1.7776984835435616 | True | play | NO | public | 1644626008458 | Em ✨ | Midnight Dec 31, 2022, Pacific
I read a lot of glowfic, never authored before. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 250.76814108362566, "YES": 267.407849210853} | {"creatorFee": 0.5269556316605684, "platformFee": 0.08782593861009474, "liquidityFee": 0.5269556316605684} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1672607414383 | 240.52695563166057 | hamnox | 1672556645005 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 20 | 1650313778598 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390678}] | ["glowfic"] | 1672556644849 | 1652750433102 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9497690632683764 | P0Jyo3ywTIfKDtvBM9Zl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-hamilton-return-to-f1-in-2022 | 531 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 481} | Will Hamilton return to F1 in 2022 season? | 1647835140000 | XyPYs4jaySVJusiNh5EKolKy72r1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 481} | 0 | 8.962698602642751 | True | play | YES | public | 1644628054410 | Gaurav Agnihotri | This resolves to yes if Hamilton is on the grid for the 1st race on 18-20 March 2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 614.947965278364} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1671028909367 | 100 | GauravAgnihotri | 1671028917296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgBTZrc3D25xBBs9Hu3ajvkLMfGy7-xZha66gPNYcw=s96-c | 4 | 1650314566685 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1671028914302 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5030735913519068 | ld5diCyw2SlnAtIsoadZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5030735913519068 | test-question | 133.95994369772325 | {"NO": 64.00722287304498, "YES": 64.03283342923177} | Test question | 1645246740000 | u8fkkGSh9egXcgOerlVRtixeiBD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 64, "YES": 64} | 0 | 2.77269349638012 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644628086247 | Andrew MacFie | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 160.75229367006403, "YES": 161.74352338860137} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1680910920254 | 100 | AndrewMacFie | 1710206797570 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwr607Drqr6D1vTu1rycKAi3hYB4UYSk4kR5yK6Zg=s96-c | 10 | 1650314740749 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}] | ["testing", "please-resolve"] | 1680910902539 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4168244361294555 | QJxfl01qB8fEyusArmeJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4168244361294555 | if-we-guess-macho-in-round-3-will-w | 159 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 69} | If we guess “MACHO” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644632100000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 69} | 0 | 4.791321906359967 | True | play | NO | public | 1644628562240 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 197.78776504121782, "YES": 167.2154299100415} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1644647759377 | 100 | Manifold | 1644628562240 | 0 | 4 | 1715658140752 | 0 | 0.4168244361294555 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4079200307574011 | NRNXd5bqc0p88VmOQJzE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4079200307574011 | if-we-guess-polka-in-round-3-will-w | 155 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 65} | If we guess “POLKA” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644632100000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 65} | 0 | 4.793847885809151 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644628563022 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 196.21416870348583, "YES": 162.8649747490233} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1644634686338 | 100 | Manifold | 1644628563022 | 0 | 4 | 1715658048953 | 0 | 0.4079200307574011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2071954683062326 | IuZLkD4LcpU6h7bLPN2p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2071954683062326 | if-we-guess-voila-in-round-3-will-w | 258 | {"NO": 193, "YES": 65} | If we guess “VOILA” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644632100000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 193, "YES": 65} | 0 | 4.745683771101643 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644628563518 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 318.76166645316687, "YES": 162.9570495560103} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1644634697697 | 100 | Manifold | 1644628563518 | 0 | 5 | 1715657923442 | 0 | 0.2071954683062326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19050619617727363 | CJsJejIbwevFZhQu94lg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.19050619617727363 | will-the-ba2-variant-of-covid-cause | 245 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 55} | Will the BA.2 variant of Covid cause another worldwide peak in cases? | 1647061140000 | uOLLZbyORthJRNtdfgHFTSFg6tf2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 55} | 0 | 4.750278660841244 | True | play | NO | public | 1644629701749 | Richard Stiennon | Based on the Global case reporting recorded by Bing at https://www.bing.com/covid | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 310.40296390337517, "YES": 150.58220346375597} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1647092641902 | 100 | RichardStiennon | 1644629701749 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjALTHNd9wCdhkiDWcr_K3C61nI9A_EBauOIy0=s96-c | 9 | 1715657759433 | 0 | 1 | 1646927790667 | 0.19050619617727363 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47653816040517455 | btXGLD7YQnAsHBDqm89q | {"NO": 33.39045638058518, "YES": 384.7893377694655} | 0 | will-a-big-conflict-occur-in-the-we | 2300.61382073419 | {"NO": 862, "YES": 1056} | Will a big conflict occur in the West Bank soon? | 1654012740000 | 5GYtijq97nPR65xx7ZP5zvIUdSE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 862, "YES": 1056} | 0 | 3.3477280358895314 | True | play | NO | public | 1644629968505 | C | There's been a large scale conflict in the West Bank with significant human casualties (>15 dead) and covered in international media.
Feb 12, 6:35pm: @Duncan good question. Alright, I'll clarify. 15 or more dead in a single day.
It seems awful to be "making bets" on this stuff...but it's more like making best on pro... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1446.7895493125461, "YES": 1406.8134204648463} | {"creatorFee": 3.5810489780649606, "platformFee": 0.5968414963441602, "liquidityFee": 3.5810489780649606} | {"NO": 34.64101615137755, "YES": 93.8083151964686} | 0 | 1654233252762 | 103.58104897806496 | herenow | 1660628414683 | 0 | 19 | 1650314667980 | 0 | 1 | 1654001893879 | 1660628407420 | 0.07321358006232123 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8614958448753463 | 4aW7X7o3UHpglV4tORC1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8614958448753463 | can-you-see-my-profile-name | 109 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 104} | Can you see my profile name? | 1644803340000 | JbVMQvnmS6YfJiCNIOYURCyP8jh1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 104} | 0 | 4.829153480085011 | True | play | NO | public | 1644630607825 | Fuck You | This market resolves to yes if users can indeed see my profile, and will place the corresponding bet | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 193.98711297403236} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644674556049 | 100 | FuckYou | 1644630607825 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzfFqyTjOKJsO8lBAwX73EiZzi7slHWUqMlc-6T=s96-c | 4 | 1715656979951 | 0 | 0.8614958448753463 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7999999999999998 | NJiiFZKS59GasZBWilVm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7999999999999998 | will-manifold-markets-display-count | 50 | {"NO": 9.999999999999998, "YES": 40} | Will Manifold Markets display countdowns to markets' closing times before 2022-05-01? | 1648650240000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9.999999999999998, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644630993386 | N.C. Young | As of this market's opening, you can tell when a market closes by mousing over the close date, but this (a) is not easy to see and (b) requires the user to convert between time zones. This is kinda inconvenient, especially for short-term markets.
This market resolves YES if, before May, there's an easy way to tell how... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 67.08203932499372, "YES": 134.16407864998737} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1644633075475 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1644630993386 | 0 | 1 | 1715658042718 | 0 | True | 0.7999999999999998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | IoK257UhQG9R7fMppP2N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-the-food-supply-be-insufficien | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will the food supply be insufficient for the world population within 10 years? | 1645243140000 | uhXdnc7FnZeDtwnbc2cPlil1EhK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644631350579 | David Wilson | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644631551061 | 100 | DavidWilson | 1644631350579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj2dwt7ni0zTOuIVTQXpaVyaw52p6IvRdOGWP0qeA=s96-c | 1 | 1715657919208 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415843}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568032}] | ["economics-default", "world-default"] | 0.5 |
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