Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.23405066684109738
lZQWJKJrSMcKJmQeYOCx
{"NO": 81.16476506328858, "YES": 722.9390431846857}
0
will-more-than-five-people-be-kille
1653.8511511865122
{"NO": 215, "YES": 118}
Will more than five people be killed by bears in North America in 2022?
1672549140000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 215, "YES": 118}
0
3.5997095362512894
True
play
NO
public
1644290277400
Sam
This market will resolve positively (but sadly) if six or more people are killed by bears in North America in 2022. Resolution date is January 1, 2023. Statistics on bear attacks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_bear_attacks_in_North_America#2020s Feb 11, 2:18pm: FYI indirect kills do not count. Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 362.16432734326554, "YES": 237.3309924978194}
{"creatorFee": 0.10326091084537492, "platformFee": 0.006960938849116974, "liquidityFee": 0.04176563309470184}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1672560478317
140.0417656330947
sam
1672546698698
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
15
1650314740332
0
1
14
1672546698553
1661834039069
0.03
0.28739257566094084
DSyaNfB4mq8R18vMPvkg
{"NO": 53.47634100418705, "YES": 784.5581375565661}
0
will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s
1894.6238248241286
{"NO": 217.3487658491349, "YES": 216}
Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022?
1672549140000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 239, "YES": 216}
0
3.557076468831766
True
play
NO
public
1644290950878
Sam
This question will resolve positively if two or more people are killed by shark attack on the shores (or aquariums) of the United States in 2022. More info /resolution data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_shark_attacks_in_the_United_States#2020s Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 376.76732395806914, "YES": 377.5013769912247}
{"creatorFee": 7.015593051403191, "platformFee": 0.5088229940418474, "liquidityFee": 2.6320793059760925}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1672560326220
142.63207930597608
sam
1670122583176
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
26
1650313854374
0
1
26
1670122583049
1658832950246
0.03
0.6268508683052308
lSiaV9xmDRSbQ02VInRM
{"NO": 4.456128460507188, "YES": 664.4006835339444}
0
will-the-libyan-presidential-electi
1208.0079203672485
{"NO": 65, "YES": 100}
Will the Libyan presidential election take place before July 2022?
1656619140000
ecQpbw7cfSh1Q3FmfSkOkEtGikN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 65, "YES": 100}
0
5.408015446475543
True
play
NO
public
1644307206496
Jared Jeffery
This market resolves 'YES' if before 1 July 2022 the presidential election takes place - not necessarily everywhere, but extensive enough for it to be considered a national poll. The results or legality of the election are not of primary concern as these may be contested. The question is whether a significant proportion of Libyans cast ballots in what they think is a legitimate presidential election at the time. Feb 23, 10:45am: Update from Reuters - Libya’s interim prime minister on Monday 22 February announced a plan for elections in the summer as he seeks to stay in office despite a push by parliament to dislodge him in favour of a new government. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-politics/libyan-pm-pushes-summer-election-amid-parliament-bid-to-oust-him-idUSKBN2KQ1YE
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 210.2974084481309}
{"creatorFee": 1.7051320199393456, "platformFee": 0.2227471842264375, "liquidityFee": 1.3364831053586248}
{"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616}
0
1663705883850
101.33648310535862
JaredJeffery
1663705889013
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhbNySyRLMWObqC-9DD7ELG2W3N-kfHV8QUPa3LBQ=s96-c
5
1650314739539
0
1
6
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503268}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}]
["politics-default", "please-resolve"]
1656322387135
1663705887259
0.011141497826233481
0.9734577006954481
Av4QoKoYLjH6Xfn0atA2
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
will-the-belarussian-constitutional
1021.0745987434366
{"NO": 50, "YES": 878.9254012565634}
Will the Belarussian constitutional referendum on 27 February 2022 see the adoption of a new constitution?
1646683140000
ecQpbw7cfSh1Q3FmfSkOkEtGikN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 880}
0
9.607466070003856
True
play
YES
public
1644307926330
Jared Jeffery
This market resolves "YES" if the majority of voters in the referendum vote "YES" to the question: "Do you accept the amendments and additions to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus?". Whether this is a true reflection of votes cast or the popular will is not the issue.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 167.6305461424021, "YES": 1015.1785465379872}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1680901291295
100
JaredJeffery
1680901290880
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhbNySyRLMWObqC-9DD7ELG2W3N-kfHV8QUPa3LBQ=s96-c
10
1650313836749
0
1
11
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475474}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664330908204}]
["politics-default", "please-resolve"]
1680901288535
0.97
0.5418900030742108
NM91It0nPO880gkJ2ubK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5418900030742108
will-the-power-of-the-dog-win-best
2778.667137545364
{"NO": 400.063958592369, "YES": 365.7375925654788}
Will The Power of the Dog win Best Picture at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648435800000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 364, "YES": 376}
0
4.67123297221078
True
play
NO
public
1644373269261
David Glidden
This market resolves to "YES" if The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-27 10:50 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 586.007594109148, "YES": 637.3440402433708}
{"creatorFee": 16.13858478013499, "platformFee": 4.034646195033748, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1648465394183
100
dglid
1644373269261
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
27
1715658044118
0
1
0.5418900030742108
0.46953775847271795
AZQlrRiV4CrrqpYwUbYX
{"NO": 9.36178755621491, "YES": 1569.3067427534675}
0
will-reddit-file-an-s1-before-may-1
2158.7932055904885
{"NO": 335, "YES": 356}
Will Reddit file an S-1 before May 1st, 2022?
1651450851241
SpbfcG5QKZhQdXAZDsBtPa9wySl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 335, "YES": 356}
0
5.284541388037444
True
play
NO
public
1644380671507
Indescript Eagle
This market resolves to "YES" if by May 1, 2022, Reddit has filed a public S-1 document with the SEC.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 565.7084054528445, "YES": 552.860741959492}
{"creatorFee": 2.6629901108950498, "platformFee": 0.44383168514917487, "liquidityFee": 2.6629901108950498}
{"NO": 78.10249675906654, "YES": 62.44997998398398}
0
1651450851241
102.66299011089505
indescripteagle
1644380671507
0
https://firebasestorage.…b6e-763d976e11b8
11
1650313834499
0
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444691}]
["technology-default"]
1651360824043
1650685682132
0.0052526658153612335
0.8431351541202933
IDHmTl0592tDMTcS3coP
{"NO": 140.64805078646188, "YES": 94.4593308153924}
1
will-it-still-be-trendy-to-publicly
719.8833955472008
{"NO": 66.78653259981124, "YES": 364.275805806654}
Will it still be trendy to publicly hate Meta/Facebook in 2023?
1656647940000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 71, "YES": 362}
0
5.240027771942682
True
play
YES
public
1644428780558
Sam
Meta/Facebook has incurred an overwhelming amount of negative publicity on their platforms, services, policies and leadership over the past few years despite (or because of) its vast and intensive usership. Will this public hate continue into 2023? Resolution is subjective and based on sentiment from social media posts, media coverage, government regulation, etc. This question will resolve as YES if public opinion is still negative on January 1, 2023. This question will resolve as NO if either: 1) the company is no longer mentioned often in mainstream media, social media, government inquiries and so on; or 2) the company starts receiving praise for whatever reason. Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm Mar 15, 12:51pm: To clarify, this question will not resolve until Jan 2023. In the original description, I use the phrasing "starts receiving praise," by which I mean the question will resolve NO if FB receives significant praise that carries through to the new year and balances out much of the negative sentiment. Thanks for sticking with this as I work through the kinks of these "vibe" questions that I think this platform is perfect for.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 210.33952034385715, "YES": 487.63151400956343}
{"creatorFee": 0.6386507821173842, "platformFee": 0.04673272086072319, "liquidityFee": 0.2730278328152086}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1672560414194
100.27302783281522
sam
1656446537847
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
29
1650313885778
0
1
30
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446363}]
["technology-default"]
1656446536614
1647363411042
0.89
0.09
1xLF7hyWSrC7dWK2IpeM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09
how-many-new-signups-will-manifold
1362
{"NO": 857, "YES": 505}
How many new signups will Manifold have at the end of launch day?
1644479940000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 857, "YES": 505}
0
4.648737127640244
True
play
MKT
public
1644429306689
Manifold
This market resolves to a probability between 0% and 100%; each 1% represents 5 new signups to Manifold Markets by end of day PT on launch day (2022-02-09). For background, Manifold had 541 signups before launch; you can see daily user activity at https://manifold.markets/analytics Feb 10, 9:09pm: Final value was 47! Resolving to 9%.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1257.0994391853017, "YES": 746.4214627139281}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1644556234905
100
Manifold
1644429306689
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
10
1715656908814
0
1644430771192
0.09
0.627471383975026
iDWyxGM2M7vMmP4oYZ5u
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.627471383975026
if-i-use-conditional-prediction-mar
24
{"NO": 9.6, "YES": 14.4}
If I use conditional prediction markets to inform at least 5 decisions by March 8, what will my average self-reported wellbeing be from March 9 to April 8?
1647020148673
080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.6, "YES": 14.4}
0
4.952739542578979
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644430602453
Tom
I record a wellbeing score for myself every day between 0 and 100, currently averaging 64 with a standard deviation of 19. If I use conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions (not including this) by 11:59PM EST March 8, 2022, then I will resolve this question as PROB with value equal to my average wellbeing score (rounded to the nearest integer) between March 9, 2022 and April 8, 2022, inclusive. If I don't use conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions, I will resolve this question NA. See also: https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/if-i-dont-use-conditional-predictio
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 75.683551713698, "YES": 98.2242332624694}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 80}
0
1647020148673
100
toms
1644430602453
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c
4
1715658556591
0
[{"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677478514621}, {"name": "Conditional markets", "slug": "conditional-markets", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "N0398xzZ9qTQFgy6Zny0", "createdTime": 1677478518426}]
["toms-personal", "conditional-markets"]
0.627471383975026
0.82
9DHxqPKTGVSyMsscSL84
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.82
if-i-dont-use-conditional-predictio
43
{"NO": 8.6, "YES": 34.4}
If I don't use conditional prediction markets to inform at least 5 decisions by March 8, what will my average self-reported wellbeing be from March 9 to April 8?
1649476740000
080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 8.6, "YES": 34.4}
0
4.91406299411142
True
play
MKT
public
1644430768447
Tom
I record a wellbeing score for myself every day between 0 and 100, currently averaging 64 with a standard deviation of 19. If I use don't conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions (not including this) by 11:59PM EST March 8, 2022, then I will resolve this question as PROB with value equal to my average wellbeing score (rounded to the nearest integer) between March 9, 2022 and April 8, 2022, inclusive. If I do use conditional prediction markets for at least 5 decisions, I will resolve this question NA. See also: https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/if-i-use-conditional-prediction-mar
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 74.03377607551839, "YES": 122.34377793741699}
{"creatorFee": 0.22735320861245598, "platformFee": 0.056838302153113994, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 80}
0
1649489983642
100
toms
1644430768447
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c
5
1715657663443
0
1
[{"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677537563241}]
["toms-personal"]
0.82
0.3442306808095688
MbE2BhJNHyB1vfWXxxah
{"NO": 41.11905460975147, "YES": 619.6181874774124}
0
will-conor-lamb-win-the-pennsylvani
1556.3534909694265
{"NO": 414.6465090305735, "YES": 181}
Will Conor Lamb win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate?
1652893200000
SNLRUd19xDTn32MWCDqswcHkyFH3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 415, "YES": 181}
0
3.810439994531015
True
play
NO
public
1644432251517
Ian Alexander
This market resolves to "YES" if Lamb is declared the winner of the May 17 election, "NO" if any other candidate is declared the winner. Sources of corroboration: PA Democratic Party, Washington Post.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 560.0842590516586, "YES": 412.58900650523674}
{"creatorFee": 2.2908751355257775, "platformFee": 0.38181252258762954, "liquidityFee": 2.2908751355257775}
{"NO": 88.31760866327846, "YES": 46.9041575982343}
0
1652897208687
102.29087513552578
512yinz
1652846594749
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggfe7pCJU6ZvsW4M3O8YPCcXbfJFlMExX6u0TKZuqc=s96-c
8
1650314552248
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483291}]
["politics-default"]
1652846590882
1651932054101
0.03366249346087034
0.31837320173960154
rmnkwsGfspE7iIszz3lK
{"NO": 64.91910818622557, "YES": 732.791846142074}
0
will-a-new-sarscov2-voc-be-declared
2361.874947510493
{"NO": 295, "YES": 649}
Will a new SARS-COV-2 VOC be declared by the WHO in 2022?
1672549140000
pVKxIFLoLpXHswiuEEzcAjK9JEv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 295, "YES": 649}
0
3.116037154211074
True
play
NO
public
1644432540637
Alex Demarsh
Market resolves "yes" if the WHO, via the existing TAG-VE or a subsequent working group, officially declares a new lineage of SARS-CoV-2 to be a "variant of concern" in a formal written statement before the end of 2022. (Honestly since this is Manifold Markets and I'm chaotic good aligned, I'll probably resolve it "yes" if it happens a few days into 2023, or retroactively if it's named in 2023 but likely emerged in 2022. No more variants, is what I'm tryna say here!)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 596.95896006342, "YES": 856.4905136660883}
{"creatorFee": 3.59733360412195, "platformFee": 0.42736292360076017, "liquidityFee": 2.5641775416045607}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1672582615237
182.56417754160455
AlexDemarsh
1672481170209
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh6agovUKf1PNh7bIcMTfz1roQW3rzLGiP_P6L0_Q=s96-c
33
1650314781133
0
1
32
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601091}]
["medicine"]
1672481169990
1662123791672
0.04
0.7822390001444818
s8dFcRdrB1fEeGU7Tjym
{"NO": 182.8541667992764, "YES": 86.65998308955133}
1
will-the-next-dominant-strain-of-sa
2100.261860020184
{"NO": 418.6054237217861, "YES": 1133.907791599128}
Will the next dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 be derived from Omicron?
1654709092173
QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 410, "YES": 1153}
0
4.081256013583648
True
play
YES
public
1644440338197
Gustavo Lacerda
More precisely, when we have a new #1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA according to http://covariants.org/per-country, will it be descended from Omicron? If this does not happen by the end date of 2022/Dec/31, it will resolve to Yes, since it means that Omicron will still be #1.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 772.6483321045815, "YES": 1460.7581872802468}
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{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1654709092173
100.97914763737002
GustavoLacerda
1652997471023
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c
45
1650314783048
0
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535026}]
["science-default"]
1652997470869
1644441327575
0.883444292452031
0.5799634016368717
ZT5mDPBaratLVJRQFZLA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5799634016368717
usrussia-standoff-escalate-diplomat
157
{"NO": 52, "YES": 71}
US-Russia standoff escalate ? Diplomatic solution possible?
1645122540000
APuJ4vyiLdQHB7tNHyRnuseswji1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 52, "YES": 71}
0
2.8453633935480527
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644445027568
John B
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 144.52681412111735, "YES": 169.8263819316657}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1697239901470
100
JohnB
1697239919077
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwbRCjCR7jDI9emHwRf3sd56Ndb3OzQ757-q8ic=s96-c
5
1650314648432
0
1
6
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493284}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779577078}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862215}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224852}]
["politics-default", "please-resolve", "us-politics", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1697239918383
False
0.58
0.9685875369665634
aYiDh2wJSOqF4IycWHQX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9685875369665634
will-i-believe-that-13177-is-a-prim
3008.018548029472
{"NO": 117.63217061521163, "YES": 1874.4244914368642}
Will I believe that 13177 is a prime number?
1645084740000
Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 125, "YES": 1950}
0
4.638733733026243
True
play
YES
public
1644451470282
Vivek Hebbar
This market resolves to yes if I put more than 50% credence on 13177 being prime after reading your arguments. I won't use a calculator or written calculations to check it myself.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 370.7869479864321, "YES": 2058.9361613317164}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 91.6515138991168, "YES": 40}
0
1645163388862
100
VivekHebbar
1644451470282
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c
17
1715658378116
0
1
1644533746353
0.9685875369665634
0.2
n8mG7Os7gF5cgrZUfOs4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2
will-david-win-dynasty-game-night-e
50
{"NO": 40, "YES": 10}
Will David win Dynasty Game Night Episode 88?
1646110740000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 10}
0
4.901971679398953
True
play
NO
public
1644452826478
David Glidden
On Thursday, February 10th, 2022, I will be competing in a three-person Dynasty Game Night, a fantasy football game show podcast expected to be Episode 88 published by end of February here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-game-night/id1262761204 This market will resolve "YES" if I win the night and "NO" if I do not. I commit to not bidding on this market (beyond initial ante) given I will have insider information about the result prior to the public. I competed once prior in Episode 77.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 67.08203932499369}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1645055400618
100
dglid
1644452826478
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
1
1715658655389
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407296}]
["sports-default"]
0.2
0.5
Ts12EkaOSDWza1r6PoU8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye
10
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes in a single transaction?
1645084740000
Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
0
4.988398938453521
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644453595009
Vivek Hebbar
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 77.78174593052023}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644453621359
100
VivekHebbar
1644453595009
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c
1
1715658215737
0
0.5
0.42999999999999994
NoafqKvlIYbs1Kj2HnUp
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.42999999999999994
will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye-9f68227b1eb0
10
{"NO": 5.700000000000001, "YES": 4.3}
Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes?
1644479940000
Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5.700000000000001, "YES": 4.3}
0
4.988398938453521
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644453701742
Vivek Hebbar
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 83.04817878797826, "YES": 72.131823767322}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302}
0
1644453724003
100
VivekHebbar
1644453701742
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c
1
1715658067105
0
0.42999999999999994
0.980294635214874
RmfEp0O0SVJCqkJA4Fjk
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.980294635214874
will-someone-buy-1500-or-more-of-ye-69a348b8990c
2929.8458356479473
{"NO": 173.8541643520527, "YES": 2752.3}
Will someone buy $1500 or more of yes in a single transaction?
1644479940000
Sq6u5ry0zIbydkshyBTm8xonORq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 165.7, "YES": 2752.3}
0
4.631505439872898
True
play
YES
public
1644453771675
Vivek Hebbar
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 424.7988069960547, "YES": 2996.190080752555}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302}
0
1644999172216
100
VivekHebbar
1644453771675
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxx7JYzwELQ0v50WALlfpNC9bgi4vYUX1A2hAiu=s96-c
10
1715658178960
0
1644477456866
0.980294635214874
0.717825922324382
BW3mhrDyAFVKrdKK1c47
{"NO": 445.93542836194945, "YES": 55.56152581552171}
1
will-jalen-hurts-be-the-2022-week-1
510.83414697861224
{"NO": 14.400000000000002, "YES": 38.203250969543404}
Will Jalen Hurts be the 2022 Week 1 starting QB for the Philadelphia Eagles?
1662868740000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 14.400000000000002, "YES": 38.599999999999994}
0
3.930495611829694
True
play
YES
public
1644457452329
David Glidden
This market resolves to "YES" if Jalen Hurts starts for the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season and "NO" if not or if at any point prior to Week 1 he ceases to be rostered by the team.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 81.0629385107646, "YES": 129.29250638174454}
{"creatorFee": 2.627173689894865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}
0
1662921008324
100
dglid
1662822989947
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
8
1650313840854
0
1
9
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397863}]
["sports-default"]
1662822988610
0.9533089302418047
0.9385452737609128
xEJuGdqq3NqJr14Gmr9q
{"NO": 550.9185126460658, "YES": 90.36486880471898}
1
will-official-wordle-still-be-free
1001.4552752544303
{"NO": 50, "YES": 419.5447247455697}
Will official Wordle still be free on May 1, 2022?
1651388340000
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 425}
0
10.004785751770466
True
play
YES
public
1644458922001
Conflux
This market simply resolves to "YES" if you can play standard, official Wordle (currently located at powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle) for free on May 1, 2022. Wordle was recently acquired by the New York Times, who say that it will "initially remain free."
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 551.7075253116516}
{"creatorFee": 0.48892412360539195, "platformFee": 0.081487353934232, "liquidityFee": 0.48892412360539195}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1651418217371
100.48892412360541
Conflux
1644458922001
0
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
17
1650314818239
0
1
0
1647135469044
0.9893739274003943
0.02493760428067333
5PDVTheaHtxdn1vRtM5h
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.02493760428067333
will-i-catch-covid-by-april
1405.6465241594492
{"NO": 509.8534758405509, "YES": 24.5}
Will I catch COVID by April?
1648724340000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 510.5, "YES": 24.5}
0
4.690931202781599
True
play
NO
public
1644458996063
N.C. Young
I live in Auckland, New Zealand with 4 other people. I work remotely, as do 2/4 of my cohabitants. We've all had 3 Pfizer shots. None of us has tested positive before, nor anyone we know locally. Feb 11, 10:19am: By default, this will resolve NO. A positive test or my displaying symptoms while another member of my household has COVID will resolve YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 626.3939114574697, "YES": 100.174847142384}
{"creatorFee": 0.9541390336220369, "platformFee": 0.23853475840550922, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}
0
1648936221514
100
NcyRocks
1644458996063
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
12
1715656995791
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ff9-bf86035a8c0e
1647144643952
0.02493760428067333
0.06322071500664395
fcyLnV7t6eg0PPjABQzN
{"NO": 898.8775769142828, "YES": 4403.987646414819}
0
will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem
18996.966725744995
{"NO": 1473.4882019133333, "YES": 111.34257052514997}
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2022?
1672559940000
pY2DeRJXwFSq9vtvKTKDX5jVo6u2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1475.4, "YES": 115.6}
0
1.6924935429399408
True
basic
NO
public
1644459365392
Karl Keefer
Some people are really optimistic about new reactor design with super strong magnets. Initial probability is super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past. Feb 9, 6:16pm: Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1636.573722896751, "YES": 400.35132231519464}
{"creatorFee": 0.7837390230435642, "platformFee": 0.061678204913202764, "liquidityFee": 0.3107332606800341}
{"NO": 98.99494936611666, "YES": 14.142135623730951}
0
1672688654929
1040.31073326068
karlkeefer
1672688969062
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj766Nnn6RY4KyrYSHlCDdUH-DYm9oRYEdNpwtD=s96-c
0
98
1650314701154
0
1
86
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532099}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181929015}]
["science-default", "nuclear"]
1672557153247
1672688961420
False
0.01
0.30623408603307145
Ky0bfuqi5i5xP2B7IZ7O
{"NO": 450.52786680715724, "YES": 648.6071659229409}
1
will-david-tennant-be-the-next-doct
26525.399247612426
{"NO": 894.5588117982061, "YES": 232}
Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?
1666549800000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 905, "YES": 232}
0
0.6807086736666652
True
play
YES
public
1644460138093
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Jodie Whittaker regenerates (or otherwise changes) into David Tennant, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-24 7:30 am", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1139.3207492456318, "YES": 454.30688871972774}
{"creatorFee": 184.27689595196037, "platformFee": 18.495551468291442, "liquidityFee": 110.94585656708551}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1667169691471
507.3969451988713
NcyRocks
1667307582693
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
0
103
1650314539642
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…672-aa3f631fe873
96
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1660360102022}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543118}, {"name": "Doctor Who", "slug": "doctor-who", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "gZBhA7uv8d1q5i3UWBc2", "createdTime": 1670659337166}]
["culture-default", "entertainment", "doctor-who"]
1666537221028
1667307580914
0.23465827675082374
0.14489931885689136
INgRs8eTwKI7CC3Fl1pJ
{"NO": 82.34303706921742, "YES": 409.9518936472439}
0
will-manifold-markets-allow-you-to
2852.3646261679864
{"NO": 1049.5209763590515, "YES": 327.2625893481561}
Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?
1651319940000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1083, "YES": 334}
0
5.741803649768229
True
play
NO
public
1644460352681
N.C. Young
I dunno if this is the best way to make a feature request, but I wanna try it anyway! Right now, when you make a bet, you input a dollar amount to put towards "YES" or "NO". There's also a field describing the implied probability before and after your bet. It seems possible and useful to be able to click on that field and input a probability instead, letting the corresponding dollar amount be calculated automatically (or if you don't have enough money to shift the market to your desired probability, to put all your money towards it). This would be very useful early on when one bet can significantly shift the market but would become less and less useful as a market gets bigger. If the sort of thing I mean is possible before May, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO. Close date updated to 2022-04-24 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1364.679759406938, "YES": 564.392464698028}
{"creatorFee": 2.6710103440820556, "platformFee": 0.5055320813230514, "liquidityFee": 1.9466460563695498}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1651529659933
101.94664605636954
NcyRocks
1644460352681
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
42
1650313887564
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…969-b764d760da2c
1646591014530
0.032916016147105646
0.09884314425756947
PIKwcURkOvZigevLTrjD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09884314425756947
will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t-871866813da9
63466.9348894732
{"NO": 36882.00528972947, "YES": 6219.059820797329}
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the Winter Olympics conclude?
1645419540000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 36895, "YES": 5928}
0
4.616277213086889
True
play
NO
public
1644461636198
Predictor 🔥
This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022. Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 41830.620665771596, "YES": 10794.961852655964}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645377466414
100
Predictor
1688045972078
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
153
1715658110486
0
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401615}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223508}]
["sports-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.1472416476202968
1688045969719
False
0.09884314425756947
0.980815604072831
DaXe4RNUO6ASZNgJYuqV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.980815604072831
will-norway-win-the-most-total-olym
9609.489772766488
{"NO": 218.13470159914095, "YES": 1574.3755256343659}
Will Norway win the most total Olympic medals (Gold, Silver & Bronze) at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1645419540000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 62.25, "YES": 1727.75}
0
4.641190675981322
True
play
YES
public
1644462954297
Predictor 🔥
At the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics, will resolve YES of Norway leads in total medal count wins.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 165.2242988517741, "YES": 1885.284034635725}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1645377409737
100
Predictor
1644462954297
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
25
1715657790250
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398543}]
["sports-default"]
1645275230000
0.980815604072831
0.5
yXKgttBSGqLiOzLtxh08
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-i-resolve-this-market-as-a-yes
60
{"NO": 5, "YES": 55}
Will I resolve this market as a YES?
1645095540000
HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 55}
0
4.886312227393626
True
play
YES
public
1644464289654
Mathias Foster
This market resolves as a YES if I resolve it as a YES, and as a NO if I resolve it as a NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 139.82131454109563}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644464380303
100
MathiasFoster
1644464289654
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c
1
1715658952575
0
0.5
0.01
MPzRGS5Ws2dQygd79LcV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01
does-manifold-markets-allow-wash-tr
958
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 948.1}
Does Manifold Markets allow wash trading and getting the 4% stake?
1645095540000
HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 948.1}
0
4.661275455322706
True
play
YES
public
1644464479453
Mathias Foster
Let's see.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.4486180817282, "YES": 1052.3236194251272}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10}
0
1644464503235
100
MathiasFoster
1644464479453
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c
1
1715658013848
0
1644464596551
0.01
0.06073246135552913
Z5sp8dhfckOdyUU4dSl5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.06073246135552913
new-zealand-will-extend-the-date-fo
113.00000000000003
{"NO": 43.69999999999999, "YES": 1.2999999999999865}
New Zealand will extend the date for fully-vaccinated people to enter the country from Australia
1646045940000
HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 43.7, "YES": 1.3000000000000007}
0
4.910504809655133
True
play
NO
public
1644465747375
Mathias Foster
The NZ Government has announced that it is reopening borders in 5 stages, listed here: https://covid19.govt.nz/international-travel/travel-to-new-zealand/when-new-zealand-borders-open The current dates are: Step 1 — 28 February 2022 Step 2 — 14 March 2022 Step 3 — 13 April 2022 Step 4 — July 2022 Step 5 — October 2022 (where the dates listed say "from 11.59pm on 27th February", I have rounded this to the 28th February. This market resolves as YES if the government makes the decision to extend the date for Step 1 to after 28 February 2022. It resolves as NO if vaccinated New Zealand citizens are able to enter New Zealand from Australia, starting the 28th of February.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 140.52793316632818, "YES": 35.733737559902686}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1646068382877
100
MathiasFoster
1644465747375
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c
3
1715658334931
0
1
[{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1662809903864}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112330}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493135}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533857}]
["politics-default", "australia", "nz-politics", "new-zealand"]
1646012537767
0.06073246135552913
0.2360234004643173
IcOteSQV7PeAPQc7XvRv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2360234004643173
will-the-cincinnati-bengals-be-the
5544.464214230178
{"NO": 2482.933311610559, "YES": 1114.602474159264}
Will the Cincinnati Bengals be the Super Bowl LVI champions?
1644843600000
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 2461.01, "YES": 1134.99}
0
4.6285506191574175
True
play
NO
public
1644465904475
Quantum Gambler
Resolves YES if the Cincinnati Bengals are the winning team of Super Bowl LVI in 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 3261.847706717568, "YES": 1741.2984882637993}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302}
0
1644807723694
100
Mirek
1644465904475
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
25
1715657913333
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400184}]
["sports-default"]
1644665725420
0.2360234004643173
0.07601911013105753
8g5ZC8SXXPPukQAdpOfd
{"NO": 158.08045379243777, "YES": 674.3810585944034}
0
will-manifold-markets-have-over-100
1898.829236968045
{"NO": 650, "YES": 85.65015201151493}
Will manifold markets have over 100,000 users who have placed at least 2 bets by January 2023
1667285940000
aOZQ0GKXMMaAAiOgZBJ1Um1BZNe2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 650, "YES": 93}
0
6.597592592034633
True
play
NO
public
1644466670453
Thomas Liao
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 801.9539960390235, "YES": 234.9062893877254}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1667723695888
180
ThomasLiao
1667282402337
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxESxvJiMGbzgrTYum_pRa-ORIPboEbchU5K_2s=s96-c
19
1650313821501
0
2
19
1667282400976
1666847647609
0.018920679289938142
0.1090123504776459
l3lPwfOkZ0GfBw96i8Pc
{"NO": 186.45458569830825, "YES": 1338.5442497175904}
0
will-republicans-control-the-house
3132.2265363654647
{"NO": 191.30505862131045, "YES": 46.26397492309931}
Will Republicans control the House of Representatives (US) on Jan 1, 2023
1672596000000
ICxrPEvBMuXRbkxdf03SZ1LiKKA2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 192.1, "YES": 48.900000000000006}
0
4.01979688710024
True
play
NO
public
1644478083629
div
This market will resolve yes if, on January 1st - 2023 - at 12:00 PM CST, greater than 50% of sitting U.S. representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 306.944110937436, "YES": 140.49258047645745}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1672603905151
240
div
1672597553486
0
https://firebasestorage.…eed-17b053b000fb
24
1650314736707
0
1
23
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503194}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867299}]
["politics-default", "us-politics"]
1672585509570
1672597551442
False
0.02
0.4974822998046875
Ov514MTzTTyeBZp8lCit
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4974822998046875
will-the-largest-bet-in-this-market
156
{"NO": 77, "YES": 79}
Will the largest bet in this market be an even number?
1644892200000
ICxrPEvBMuXRbkxdf03SZ1LiKKA2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 77, "YES": 79}
0
4.793209607606701
True
play
NO
public
1644480676625
div
This market resolves "YES" if the largest bet made within this market, prior to the resolution time, is of an even number of M$. If the largest bet in this market at that time is an odd number this will resolve to "NO". This market will resolve at 8:30 CST on February 14, 2022 (PM) Feb 10, 2:07pm: the largest bet visible on the webpage*
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 181.47451611727746, "YES": 180.5630083931922}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644819374953
100
div
1644480676625
0
https://firebasestorage.…eed-17b053b000fb
7
1715658095464
0
1644509007859
0.4974822998046875
0.24575705859430977
Kb2TrACcpD6W6xSi3lNx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-olivia-colman-win-best-actress
998.0355399333572
{"NO": 470.9644600666428, "YES": 175}
Will Olivia Colman win Best Actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648335540000
EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 496, "YES": 175}
0
3.7394540937622303
True
play
NO
public
1644490966582
Jake
This market resolves to "YES" if Olivia Colman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 647.8489573674912, "YES": 369.80360209220856}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1650439391074
100
jknowak
1644490966582
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c
9
1650314536420
0
1
1644877218533
0.24575705859430974
0.5936772449693699
b58pnbzQeMOMPD6nEKwd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
will-dune-win-in-4-or-more-categori
5506.424076533925
{"NO": 40, "YES": 848.160236266281}
Will Dune win in 4 or more categories at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648335540000
EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 185, "YES": 511}
0
2.873451778617793
True
play
YES
public
1644491328945
Jake
This market resolves to 'YES' if 'Dune' wins in 4 or more categories at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. Dune was nominated in 10 categories: best picture, best costume design, best sound, best original score, best adapted screenplay, best film editing, best makeup and hairstyling, best cinematography, best production design and best visual effects.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 600.181566742024, "YES": 725.474717795379}
{"creatorFee": 1.6245947851958318, "platformFee": 0.40614869629895795, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1650439333879
100
jknowak
1644491328945
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c
23
1650314662844
0
1
1647209661061
0.5936772449693699
0.4482105764183182
QnfvRxxE2umLrPn3IBOq
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4482105764183182
will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me-abea3405911c
4404.790446385027
{"NO": 1630.0926397680935, "YES": 1485.1169138468795}
Will Shaun White win gold in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1644546300000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1640, "YES": 1049}
0
4.63054954281968
True
play
NO
public
1644495874248
David Glidden
This market resolves to "YES" if USA's Shaun White wins the gold medal in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics, and "NO" if not. Feb 10, 7:24am: Continuation of https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me that had incorrect end date.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2388.338995300511, "YES": 2152.5355553820577}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1644580700425
100
dglid
1644495874248
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
10
1715658155628
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402087}]
["sports-default"]
1644546610641
0.4482105764183182
0.9048862140949637
NZA0dEVIN0iPFzKQInNh
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9048862140949637
will-david-do-1350-or-more-pushups
866
{"NO": 136, "YES": 730}
Will David do 1,350 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 13th?
1644814740000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 136, "YES": 730}
0
4.665559851261275
True
play
YES
public
1644498329576
David Glidden
I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Wednesday, February 9th, I had done 1,252 push-ups. How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 13th? Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row “Sun, Feb 13” on the below spreadsheet is equal or greater than 1,350, indicating the total number of push-ups I will have done through that date. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-DZ4VDkVs94HdE8jFkhp8Ek8Ya-6398Gcxp_dpBXZpA/edit Full history of daily push-up counts is also available on the sheet. I update my counts throughout the day so a number listed does not mean it is final. I commit to not betting on this market, aside from ante, due to insider knowledge about the outcome prior to it being publicly available. Feb 13, 1:29pm: following week’s market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-david-do-1570-or-more-pushups
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 297.91945220142975, "YES": 918.9124006128114}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644776979795
100
dglid
1644498329576
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
10
1715658053086
0
1644628175717
0.9048862140949637
0.07527681862998024
CWyVcaegRRBLL3E8pCRK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.07527681862998024
will-davids-tweet-about-this-market
1666.731108665231
{"NO": 611.268891334769, "YES": 78}
Will David's tweet about this market get 15 or more retweets?
1644843600000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 595, "YES": 78}
0
4.676506881412308
True
play
NO
public
1644499435445
David Glidden
Resolves to "YES" if the tweet about this market in the edit below has 15 or more retweets by the time I plan to check it at 8:30am ET Monday, February 14th. Market closes 30 minutes prior to reduce risk of manipulation. Feb 10, 8:23am: Tweet: https://twitter.com/dglid/status/1491764956009742340
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 758.9809195422682, "YES": 216.5487164579563}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644844805959
100
dglid
1644499435445
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
18
1715657766714
0
0.07527681862998024
0.4310054150057756
qHkjZaoUvVNN0m5Aqowv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4310054150057756
this-market-will-resolve-to-minorit
678
{"NO": 484, "YES": 190}
This market will resolve to minority
1644692340000
KHsT0CwajZO9zSFDvgKyHjzy2b13
cpmm-1
{"NO": 484, "YES": 190}
0
4.677679998983989
True
play
YES
public
1644506070786
Asim
prob = %chance at market closure prob >= 50% -> resolves to no prob < 50% -> resolves to yes If prob is greater than or equal to 50%, this market will resolve to no If prob is less than 50%, this market will resolve to yes
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 583.8415881041706, "YES": 508.138760576282}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644697402282
100
Asim
1644506070786
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh3YHqLXFHHMHEH6VIbqb6Sq4CvXMJ6sAGEDCFp=s96-c
6
1715658730287
0
0.4310054150057756
0.99
9t2F0CbMUfskKqmJM4G1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.99
this-market-will-resolve-prob-with
803.1052537512907
{"NO": 14.9, "YES": 227.99474624870936}
This market will resolve PROB with probability 10% greater than the closing probability, modulo 100 if necessary.
1645765140000
080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 14.9, "YES": 235.1}
0
4.7510534188469125
True
play
MKT
public
1644508347923
Tom
e.g. If the closing probability is 10% this market will resolve to 20%, if its 50% it will resolve to 60%, if its 90% it will resolve to YES, and if its 95% it will resolve to 5%.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 114.72988914178856, "YES": 323.13133481988353}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10}
0
1645808198882
100
toms
1644508347923
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c
10
1715657685490
0
1
0.99
0.04468062957022115
m8q5ohzfjca3fcWHmq5h
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04468062957022115
will-tsla-close-at-or-over-93500-on
3164.9741212914705
{"NO": 2427.0258787085295, "YES": 410}
Will TSLA close at or over $935.00 on February 10, 2022?
1644526800000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 2491, "YES": 410}
0
4.631998407185998
True
play
NO
public
1644508535254
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $935.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2870.662030722084, "YES": 620.8224525370927}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1644526877945
100
Predictor
1644508535254
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
8
1715658638767
0
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425998}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575126}]
["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]
1644509850673
0.04468062957022115
0.7388137443763035
jgeMIpMpaDRRIgBBzjv7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7388137443763035
will-inflation-be-06-or-higher-in-f
672.6154031332898
{"NO": 151, "YES": 422.38459686671024}
Will inflation be 0.6% or higher in February?
1646891940000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 151, "YES": 422}
0
4.686693624942784
True
play
YES
public
1644515043592
Manifold
This market resolves based on the CPI change for February 2022, which will be released in a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 10th: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ For context, November's inflation was 0.8%, December's was 0.5%, and January's was 0.6%. Mar 10, 11:01am: The new CPI numbers just came out! February's inflation was 0.8%, so resolving YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 344.14252252809825, "YES": 578.8028502740283}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1646931809011
100
Manifold
1644515043592
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
19
1715658581512
0
1
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574312}]
["economics-default"]
1646711693529
0.7388137443763035
0.057577785967619255
YjQ2nAXtizAOw1ewrJMf
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.057577785967619255
will-the-canadian-armed-forces-inte
3071.6974514294643
{"NO": 2034.1311807155398, "YES": 428.1713678549959}
Will the Canadian armed forces intervene in the current trucker protests in Canada before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST?
1646110860000
7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 2100, "YES": 445}
0
4.634442530262306
True
play
NO
public
1644523511679
littlebubulle
This market resolves to YES if the Canadian government deploys any number of Canadian armed forces to intervene in the current trucker protest (the freedom convoy). "YES" also includes the Canadian armed forces being ordered to HELP the protesters.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2487.4431611013906, "YES": 614.834018822141}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
0
1646111176697
100
littlebubulle
1644523511679
0
https://firebasestorage.…a1f-7034729c9516
31
1715658330700
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492913}]
["politics-default"]
1645671624492
0.057577785967619255
0.08277560757624725
xYVyscwCe8cARnbGj7hn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.08277560757624725
will-tsla-close-at-or-over-91000-on
9567.23774923767
{"NO": 5757.225778540056, "YES": 1405.5364722222707}
Will TSLA close at or over $910.00 on February 11, 2022?
1644613200000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5809.1, "YES": 1419.9}
0
4.621980889641044
True
play
NO
public
1644527464186
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $910.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 6964.2587162547325, "YES": 2060.7804454061143}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}
0
1644613703071
100
Predictor
1644527464186
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
15
1715658918037
0
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529426235}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578024}]
["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]
1644610091092
0.08277560757624725
0.9919524135123317
x6MrAfMLlyT0m9hFmbxD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9919524135123317
will-this-market-have-m15000-invest
108780.80830195759
{"NO": 2578.0658054220635, "YES": 54069.12589262036}
Will this market have M$15,000 invested by February 25th?
1645830000000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1801, "YES": 54865}
0
4.6160012220137
True
play
YES
public
1644533672511
Duncn
By the end of the day (EST) February 25th, will a total of at least M$ 15,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market? #meta #shortterm #fun Feb 22, 8:16pm: To clarify, this markets stays open until Feb 25th.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 5090.696437144574, "YES": 56518.39147922754}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645830313682
100
Duncn
1644533672511
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
127
1715658899874
0
1645814912870
0.9919524135123317
0.6808427904874867
hjrv9eygoGOuddqJyBe5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6808427904874867
will-the-final-implied-probability
307.32537900895636
{"NO": 86.93474752637724, "YES": 145.73987346466637}
Will the final implied probability of this market be even?
1645181940000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 87, "YES": 146}
0
4.754944591700243
True
play
YES
public
1644534498573
N.C. Young
After this market closes, I'll look at the implied probability. If it's an even number, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 187.9412021235227, "YES": 274.5004699374843}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645220495157
100
NcyRocks
1644534498573
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
14
1715658547591
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…bdd-baec84618232
0.6808427904874867
0.34398610578383454
BxfQjsXp8d3wQmCAYe1a
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.34398610578383454
will-manifold-market-questions-be-s
990.0005987486655
{"NO": 433.03575876907576, "YES": 272.9636424822587}
Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?
1645160340000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 435, "YES": 282}
0
4.675270980379594
True
play
YES
public
1644536469681
Sam
Manifold Market is a prediction markets platform with great promise! Currently its user base is small and mostly comprised of people who work directly on it or who are interested in novel forms of prediction markets. MM's unique spin on prediction markets is that anyone can create and resolve their own questions, thereby fostering innovation, community and personalization in an otherwise relatively stale sector. Consequently, it's not surprising that many of MM's questions are inward-looking or involve game theory. So, when will MM questions evolve to be more outward-facing? This question will resolve YES if the questions on MM are significantly less meta by April 1, 2022. Resolution of this is subjective and from an outsider's perspective (I'm just a person who writes questions for fun.) Evaluation criteria is pretty simple: the vast majority of the most traded / highest volume questions don't mention MM, prediction markets or somehow involve a question inside a question. Feb 10, 6:42pm: Examples of meta questions include "Will the largest bet in this market be an even number?"; "If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?"; "Will Manifold Market questions be significantly less meta by April 2022?" Feb 11, 9:42am: I designed this question to be subjective, more of a 'vibe' than anything... Testing to see if people will accept subjective questions, especially from a non-famous person. I'll say that relatively speaking, I do believe that the current mix of MM questions are meta compared to other more established prediction markets like Metaculus or Kalshi. If two of the top traded questions currently fit the meta criteria, that's 20%, which is a lot of meta! When I scroll down the recent activity feed, I see a fair amount of meta too. If meta questions feel like only a small niche sub-category of the MM by April, this will resolve NO. I'm going to refrain from setting an actual percentage reduction and keep it 'vibe' based, but I hope I've explained my perspective, which should help with your predictions. Apr 4, 1:24pm: I decided to resolve this as YES. Although there are still certainly some meta questions, I'm seeing what feels like a lot less than before, and a lot more general content especially concerning Russia/Ukraine.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 652.8166733546939, "YES": 472.7212982377895}
{"creatorFee": 16.959976050053374, "platformFee": 4.2399940125133435, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 38.72983346207417, "YES": 92.19544457292888}
0
1649043193619
100
sam
1644536469681
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
25
1715657738922
0
1
1645112486674
0.34398610578383454
0.5626697698481483
hgt6OlLMpySOq8qax67I
{"NO": 276.7874763170655, "YES": 268.52392701645033}
1
will-england-make-the-quarter-final
1854.695995955072
{"NO": 800, "YES": 365.94146292289133}
Will England make the quarter finals of the FIFA World Cup 2022?
1668776340000
OQiNl8okFcXQg48aW0l5NhG82Zp2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 800, "YES": 366}
0
1.1532445815041736
True
play
YES
public
1644544962870
Andrew Sayer
Will England be able to make the quarter finals of the FIFA World Cup 2022?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 983.8699100999074, "YES": 796.6227385327073}
{"creatorFee": 3.800100152426642, "platformFee": 0.13179376303213314, "liquidityFee": 0.7907625781927987}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1670322675284
280.7907625781928
AndrewSayer
1668832518565
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghsv5wNW2k_Ts27x5nns-n6Q8unl6IP9LBJQh9Vk8M=s96-c
30
1650314717582
0
2
30
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406167}]
["sports-default"]
1668766197693
1668832516489
0.5701135067631161
0.42918390593763395
YL9vfm6TYuCZyykBrPnl
{"NO": 33.63025935754396, "YES": 426.04008735093964}
0
will-amc-shares-exceed-the-current
684.677165349739
{"NO": 224.26456404437374, "YES": 185.4196712258938}
Will AMC shares exceed the current 52 week high and set a new high before September 5, 2022?
1662354000000
MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 226, "YES": 190}
0
3.5839633288142507
True
play
NO
public
1644551709158
Dustin
This market resolves to “YES” if the 52 week high for ticker AMC is greater than $72.62 at any time before September 5, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 385.0785303269034, "YES": 333.90499421887887}
{"creatorFee": 0.5157718949875644, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1662491228676
100
Dustin
1662178755186
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c
13
1650314637874
0
1
14
1662178753771
0.05602568163677095
0.8556452575116207
EfOhraEjlW2BgItBVi9J
{"NO": 714.5287159585978, "YES": 58.26026062858786}
1
will-i-be-living-in-sf-by-the-end-o
933.8998470213265
{"NO": 74, "YES": 18}
Will I be living in SF by the end of the year?
1672462740000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 74, "YES": 18}
0
7.075758005802101
True
play
YES
public
1644552733448
Austin
Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 162.29602582934677, "YES": 102.58654882585729}
{"creatorFee": 4.198487932501538, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1672778765895
160
Austin
1672074444856
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
20
1650313862878
0
1
20
1672074444704
0.99
0.3
lk8d4ojrS2rLbIrWg6bq
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3
will-this-markets-implied-probabili
100
{"NO": 70, "YES": 30}
Will this market’s implied probability be greater than it’s initial probability?
1645160340000
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 30}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1644555426780
Garrett Baker
This market resolves YES if the final implied probability ends up greater than the initial (30%), and NO otherwise.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103323}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1644555779079
100
GarrettBaker
1644555426780
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
1
1715658624877
0
0.3
0.01
vI7Top6XRbsEHnLg1IDg
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01
will-manifold-markets-suffer-from-s
1011
{"NO": 1009.9, "YES": 1.1}
Will Manifold Markets suffer from self-dealing?
1644685140000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1009.9, "YES": 1.1}
0
4.659122335647472
True
play
YES
public
1644565983399
Connor McCormick
This market resolves true if at least one person creates a market with the explicit purpose of moving money from another account to their main account. I spent $5 to create this market.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1109.945494157258, "YES": 48.394214530251446}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10}
0
1644566087578
100
ConnorMcCormick
1644565983399
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
2
1715658849124
0
0.01
0.10466986215739532
X0wj7GFifA6ZPjXOSGHV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.10466986215739532
when-the-mask-mandate-in-alameda-co
1258.5124330793822
{"NO": 879.5653108530919, "YES": 179.92225606752595}
When the mask mandate in Alameda County officially disappears on February 16, will I be able to go grocery shopping at the Berkeley Bowl without wearing a mask?
1645689540000
hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43
cpmm-1
{"NO": 896, "YES": 174}
0
4.65732131423595
True
play
NO
public
1644566553297
Alicorn
I will go to Berkeley Bowl East and check for signage, or have a housemate do so, sometime in the week following the end of the mask mandate. If there are no signs asking vaccinated patrons to wear masks, and no staffperson of the store complains about my masklessness beyond asking to see my vax card, this market resolves to YES. Feb 14, 11:29am: If I go to the store and there are old signs requiring masks, but staff assure me on inquiry that they are no longer in force, resolves to YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1117.1618625292438, "YES": 310.42034526378075}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645406776287
100
Alicorn
1644566553297
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c
17
1715658283772
0
1644970339515
0.10466986215739532
0.17627471383975024
WHeYs0QGxtDNeg5rX64n
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.17627471383975024
will-the-new-york-times-count-new-y
55
{"NO": 51.5, "YES": 3.5}
Will the New York Times count New York City as the lightest yellow Covid level by end-of March?
1648745940000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 51.5, "YES": 3.5}
0
4.893920819158259
True
play
NO
public
1644567267436
Connor McCormick
See tweet for images: The color code of the lightest yellow is #F3DF91, as of time of writing it is Tweet with images is here: https://twitter.com/connormcmk/status/1492049720495448065?s=20&t=C2jvqdiOW2s5yYdEgnVvJg
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 140.67693485429658, "YES": 65.07687761409578}
{"creatorFee": 0.14000000000000015, "platformFee": 0.03500000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616}
0
1649177476543
100
ConnorMcCormick
1644567267436
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
3
1715658260568
0
1
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}]
["medicine"]
0.17627471383975024
0.4550777339153701
QPLCgDpsxrwarUrbTjY4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4550777339153701
is-it-somewhat-unintuitive-to-go-to
2211.085622884568
{"NO": 660.1201855964346, "YES": 844.7941915189976}
Is it somewhat unintuitive to go to the Manifold Markets Home page in order to create new markets?
1645376340000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 660, "YES": 845}
0
4.645789971104762
True
play
NO
public
1644568082784
Connor McCormick
This market will return YES if the market is 85% YES (or more) at close.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1184.7293416199975, "YES": 1082.6664052128256}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855}
0
1645471813838
100
ConnorMcCormick
1644568082784
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
26
1715658147548
0
1
1645377297583
0.4550777339153701
0.9526394366148747
C0KTSRR5eTEq4WP1ia6V
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9526394366148747
indian-elections-will-the-incumbent
763.1635459945462
{"NO": 70, "YES": 646.8364540054538}
Indian Elections: Will the incumbent BJP win the Uttar Pradesh state election?
1646677740000
oR6uFNNJIccaePeaNahIUGPmh0I3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 650}
0
4.6744966587519095
True
play
YES
public
1644571464377
hawkebia
Indias largest state Uttar Pradesh is holding state assembly elections from 10 February to 7 March 2022. The results will be declared on 10 March 2022. The BJP is the incumbent party in the state. It is also the party to which the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs. This will resolve to YES if the BJP is declared the outright winner with 202 or more seats out 403.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 177.76388834631177, "YES": 797.2589244355963}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1646933523310
100
hawkebia
1644571464377
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywo6aWs3RmEcGhFhjxoBob1AiWuT6nZ8Hhiw03=s96-c
11
1715657743785
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476611}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243739}]
["politics-default", "india"]
False
0.9526394366148747
0.8273449180182777
kGeP1hghZrCY1MGQ9ATr
{"NO": 1003.0846496124877, "YES": 998.1164972227406}
0.8280530184103855
ill-die-someday
2096.6686641335928
{"NO": 47.46, "YES": 225.5914437818568}
I'll die someday.
32525773140000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 47.46, "YES": 247.54}
0
9.757207867835472
False
basic
public
1644576538514
Connor McCormick
This market resolves to YES if I prove to be mortal. Or at least if I die before the year 3000. My sense is that I'm going to be fine. I'm still quite young considering how long I've lived.
BINARY
{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"NO": 147.92404431857491, "YES": 342.47022764054105}
{"creatorFee": 1.2369141486632043, "platformFee": 0.5879883626049366, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 98.99494936611666, "YES": 14.142135623730951}
0
1000
ConnorMcCormick
1714042040802
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
27
1650314732562
0
24
[]
[]
1714042037383
1687037980863
0.16630801980656212
1uFeb7ShOE9pFn0nTfmE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.16630801980656212
will-i-watch-a-single-olympics-even
194
{"NO": 159, "YES": 35}
Will I watch a single Olympics event before the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1645203540000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 159, "YES": 35}
0
4.771935604203332
True
play
NO
public
1644577397969
Connor McCormick
This resolves to YES if I watch (on any platform, YouTube, Twitter, webstream, TV in a bar) at least one Olympic event. Accidentally watching it counts, but if it's on in the background of a bar and I don't pay attention to it it doesn't. Basically, if I find out that the podium results of any event and I watched the competition before I knew the results then this is a YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 268.4418000237668, "YES": 119.895788082818}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1645320259585
100
ConnorMcCormick
1644577397969
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
8
1715656905118
0
1
0.16630801980656212
0.8603315090749009
7B1bB8PCt85m8Y0iQFWE
{"NO": 524.2025308496951, "YES": 76.41781439490225}
1
will-the-federal-funds-rate-exceed
1553.3801504263909
{"NO": 242, "YES": 900.7825377364632}
Will the Federal Funds Rate exceed 1.25% in 2022?
1655346839799
MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 242, "YES": 913}
0
6.193120438412249
True
play
YES
public
1644590526629
Dustin
This market resolves to “YES” if the Federal Funds Rate goes higher than 1.25% at any point before January 1, 2023.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 464.45577022096006, "YES": 1152.731223491035}
{"creatorFee": 0.11677841520263428, "platformFee": 0.02919460380065857, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 72.11102550927978, "YES": 69.2820323027551}
0
1655346839799
100
Dustin
1655247009809
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c
13
1650313810926
0
1655247009570
0.9768809621085168
0.30434944120942337
wuzrFihUNaJBnX4cbV7L
{"NO": 51.24542000584407, "YES": 518.7249937676344}
0
will-my-dad-receive-his-ford-maveri
579.9815553381519
{"NO": 120, "YES": 57}
Will my dad receive his Ford Maverick pick-up by May 2022?
1651377660000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120, "YES": 57}
0
3.809449191228549
True
play
NO
public
1644594809815
Sam
My dad, age 67, has always wanted a pickup. He grew up on a small working dairy/crop farm in the midwest but moved to a large city and had no need for a pickup. 40+ years later, he still lives in a city, and he still really doesn't need one, but he bought one anyways! He purchased a Ford Maverick from a local dealership in Sept 2021. They originally promised a Thanksgiving delivery date, which came and went. After radio silence from the dealer for months, my dad received an updated timeline from two different sources... 1) Local dealer says they'll start making the truck in mid-March 2) Ford corporate says they'll start making the truck mid-April Ford is experiencing major supply chain issues, so much so that they halted orders for the Maverick. This question resolves YES if my dad is hauling mulch in his new pickup before May 1, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-05-01 12:01 am May 1, 9:50pm: The truck gods have cursed my father.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 230.26072179162475, "YES": 153.97727104998322}
{"creatorFee": 1.8082790462260523, "platformFee": 0.3013798410376754, "liquidityFee": 1.8082790462260523}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1651456298655
101.80827904622606
sam
1644594809815
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
7
1650314815345
0
1
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577518}]
["economics-default"]
1651348841308
1651345694822
0.04143074553185059
0.01140623037367915
DkAFIbBAkWWvVFZTEoKV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01140623037367915
will-this-question-resolve-at-an-im
18863.658007109618
{"NO": 13376.99744587839, "YES": 1099.3445470119914}
Will this question resolve at an implied probability greater than 50%?
1645246740000
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 13419, "YES": 781}
0
4.618544745707722
True
play
NO
public
1644601740919
Garrett Baker
(note: this is almost a copy of a previous question I made, but when I made that I didn't know I had paid M$100 to start it, and didn't want to subsidize the market as much as I did) This will resolve YES if after 1 week, the implied probability is greater than 50%, and NO otherwise.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 14542.0443793248, "YES": 999.3453674518139}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645246767677
100
GarrettBaker
1644601740919
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
29
1715657796491
0
1645209354479
0.01140623037367915
0.8383614372373739
RQsPBVakBTykz7F4eLiW
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8383614372373739
the-protestors-in-ottawa-will-be-re
1441.1538810641011
{"NO": 225.84611893589886, "YES": 955}
The protestors in Ottawa will be removed (forcibly or willingly) before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST.
1645246740000
7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 235, "YES": 955}
0
4.653399885979959
True
play
YES
public
1644604382905
littlebubulle
This market resolves to "YES" if the streets cease to be blocked by the protestors before March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST and normal operations resume. The market will still resolve to "YES" if, between their removal and March 1st 2022 at 00h01 EST, the protestors come back. Feb 18, 3:08pm: I will possibly close this market soon, based on recent news. However, I will wait to see if the police will succeed in removing the protestors first as stated in the "YES" condition.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 514.9551985356187, "YES": 1172.7693395950869}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1645280982184
100
littlebubulle
1644604382905
0
https://firebasestorage.…a1f-7034729c9516
20
1715658169465
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486524}]
["politics-default"]
1645209209581
0.8383614372373739
0.35554112745494315
fih3FPrRi82CfKS8mwim
{"NO": 477.44730222804037, "YES": 5.886891300424509}
1
will-the-golden-enclaves-reveal-tha
2827.459515517883
{"NO": 33, "YES": 28}
Will "The Golden Enclaves" reveal that maw-mouths come from creating enclaves?
1664261940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 33, "YES": 28}
0
3.5820400997810675
True
play
YES
public
1644609039878
charlie
Naomi Novak's "The Golden Enclaves", final book of the Scholomance trilogy, comes out 9/27/22. It promises to reveal "the dire truth on which the enclaves and the whole stability of the magical world are founded." One fan theory is that this dire truth is that enclaves are the source of maw-mouths, particularly horrible magical monsters. This market resolves positive if the book establishes that maw-mouths are caused by the current magical way of creating enclaves as a physical location, either immediately or as a long-term consequence. It doesn't count if enclaves as a social institution are deliberately or accidentally creating them.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 129.24782396620841, "YES": 96.00000000000001}
{"creatorFee": 0.6034009639456597, "platformFee": 0.0035201202279858228, "liquidityFee": 0.021120721367914937}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1669502696721
100.02112072136792
charlie
1664256640415
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
20
1650314702308
0
1
20
[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559697}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669224013042}]
["books", "fiction"]
1664256640230
0.9781391730167328
0.9381333932951854
rZK5Ei7CNsPBAG7oanhc
{"NO": 838.1140224940092, "YES": 88.24008096551029}
1
will-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-alive-on
5799.0641535769955
{"NO": 244.76219853115504, "YES": 2205.9416817889132}
Will Queen Elizabeth II be alive on May 1st, 2022?
1651388340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 244.5, "YES": 2229.5}
0
10.38345993326458
True
play
YES
public
1644609485278
charlie
This market resolves to YES if Queen Elizabeth II is alive as of May 1st, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 635.9841166042252, "YES": 2470.144629066685}
{"creatorFee": 1.6231684922640874, "platformFee": 0.3468203186027347, "liquidityFee": 0.7076616535594462}
{"NO": 22.36067977499791, "YES": 97.46794344808963}
0
1652015778197
100.70766165355944
charlie
1685821170832
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
56
1650314779613
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507486}]
["politics-default"]
1651378959050
1685821167727
0.99310475734316
0.8889213534082779
zPslGmfLgBnHyBbmwFQd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8889213534082779
will-manifold-markets-add-a-creatio
1282.98838649798
{"NO": 10, "YES": 207.01161350202}
Will Manifold Markets add a creation link to the "No markets found. Why not create one?" message by 3/1/22?
1646207940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 10, "YES": 220}
0
4.761361040737972
True
play
YES
public
1644609952095
charlie
When searching on the Markets page, the message "No markets found. Why not create one?" can appear. This message, however, does not include a link to do so. This market resolves YES if, by 3/1/22, the message does include a link to a page for creating a market.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 105.65509926170151, "YES": 298.88687340723766}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1645153511684
100
charlie
1644609952095
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
12
1715658972340
0
1645151671755
0.8889213534082779
0.33087384259259267
JKJODfroe7oURtJfFrHE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.33087384259259267
will-kristen-stewart-win-best-actre
126
{"NO": 27.5, "YES": 16.5}
Will Kristen Stewart win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648364340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 27.5, "YES": 16.5}
0
4.912273172347273
True
play
NO
public
1644610566470
charlie
This market resolves to "YES" if Kristen Stewart wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 117.79218989389744, "YES": 82.83115355951527}
{"creatorFee": 0.66, "platformFee": 0.165, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1648461205932
100
charlie
1644610566470
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
4
1715657934462
0
1
0.33087384259259267
0.44999999999999996
HzA5zPtItrIcQLX8EblI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.44999999999999996
will-nicole-kidman-win-best-actress
100
{"NO": 55.00000000000001, "YES": 45}
Will Nicole Kidman win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1645257540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55.00000000000001, "YES": 45}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644610695776
charlie
This market resolves to "YES" if Nicole Kidman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 148.32396974191326, "YES": 134.16407864998737}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369}
0
1644610794241
100
charlie
1644610695776
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
1
1715657897056
0
0.44999999999999996
0.8055555555555556
B7lYFmx17M4Nj2O7ookf
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8055555555555556
during-my-twitch-stream-on-the-game
140
{"NO": 26.999999999999993, "YES": 113}
During my Twitch Stream on the game Sea Of Thieves, my crew will get attacked by another player crew.
1644714000000
7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 26.999999999999993, "YES": 113}
0
4.804004003587409
True
play
YES
public
1644610810053
littlebubulle
On 12 Feb 2022, I will be playing Sea of Thieves with friends and stream it in twitch at https://www.twitch.tv/littlebubulle from about 12h30 to 18h00 EST. During the game, which is a multiplayer game, there is a possibility that our crew of players will be attacked by another crew of players. This market will resolve to "YES" if another crew attacks our crew without provocation. This means that we will not fire first unless fired upon or if our allies get attacked. Note that our group of players will attempt to bring more then one crew on the same server. Each server having a maximum of 5 crews. This will reduce the chance of being attacked by another crew. Feb 11, 3:21pm: this market will resolve to N/A if I cannot play on that date.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 105.83005244258362, "YES": 215.40659228538016}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 26.4575131106459, "YES": 96.43650760992955}
0
1644691720785
100
littlebubulle
1644610810053
0
https://firebasestorage.…a1f-7034729c9516
3
1715657724984
0
0.8055555555555556
0.44203513314074816
HH2y5PxdVHe3i1PUVisd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.44203513314074816
will-nicole-kidman-win-best-actress-0ea0617fed59
832.765762909292
{"NO": 303.22396321755105, "YES": 182.01027387315696}
Will Nicole Kidman win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648364340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 305.5, "YES": 186.5}
0
4.697034960258846
True
play
NO
public
1644610840344
charlie
This market resolves to "YES" if Nicole Kidman wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 437.1526867964059, "YES": 389.0972123902027}
{"creatorFee": 7.189369483628321, "platformFee": 1.7973423709070802, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369}
0
1648461228804
100
charlie
1644610840344
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
10
1715657881124
0
1
1645835718546
0.44203513314074816
0.0734232380922909
kyNPyTwlf4Gd4fNmPjOl
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.0734232380922909
will-lady-gaga-win-best-actress-at
1403.118836044317
{"NO": 272.15040487642494, "YES": 46.730759079257865}
Will Lady Gaga win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards?
1648364340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 306.1, "YES": 15.900000000000006}
0
4.72775546596102
True
play
NO
public
1644610924663
charlie
This market resolves to "YES" if Lady Gaga wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 403.21022209442674, "YES": 113.50306742740783}
{"creatorFee": 0.5112465582273148, "platformFee": 0.1278116395568287, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 84.26149773176358, "YES": 53.85164807134504}
0
1648461219312
100
charlie
1644610924663
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
13
1715658608798
0
1
0.0734232380922909
0.9727096926118963
2MmOKcze2hUow1ngcQIy
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9727096926118963
will-the-glowfic-thread-project-law
4707.105003115226
{"NO": 272.4453175433082, "YES": 1954.4496793414658}
Will the glowfic thread "project lawful and their oblivious boyfriend" be marked complete in February?
1646121540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 263.5, "YES": 2175.5}
0
4.636376250924186
True
play
YES
public
1644611613089
charlie
This market resolves to YES if the glowfic thread at https://glowfic.com/posts/5508 is marked as COMPLETE before 3/1/22.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 384.3978939139457, "YES": 2294.9245272300163}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1645534214491
100
charlie
1644611613089
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
18
1715656919619
0
1645512839181
0.9727096926118963
0.6422214311142755
ocanBWloQRkyzESiTC9J
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6422214311142755
if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w
218
{"NO": 80, "YES": 138}
If we guess “STAGE” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644620340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 80, "YES": 138}
0
4.760938753458433
True
play
NO
public
1644611698776
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen randomly from all words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Feel free to make derivative markets, tagged with #ManifoldPlaysWordle ! Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 190.2104098097683, "YES": 254.8411269791436}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644647747318
100
Manifold
1644611698776
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
5
1715658684954
0
0.6422214311142755
0.4424915452653486
V7gRCKyiGkpVVRf3wKV3
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4424915452653486
if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w
148
{"NO": 83, "YES": 65}
If we guess “IGLOO” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644620340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 83, "YES": 65}
0
4.798447604137232
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644611699518
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen randomly from all words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Feel free to make derivative markets, tagged with #ManifoldPlaysWordle ! Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 185.17289218457435, "YES": 164.9696941865384}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644623339947
100
Manifold
1644611699518
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658237638
0
0.4424915452653486
0.6046752757093035
pNz6hBTZM660AXut8EnI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6046752757093035
if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w
209
{"NO": 84, "YES": 125}
If we guess “BONER” in round 1, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644620340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84, "YES": 125}
0
4.76487660187771
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644611699900
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen randomly from all words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Feel free to make derivative markets, tagged with #ManifoldPlaysWordle ! Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 194.2832983043061, "YES": 240.28108539791475}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644623329066
100
Manifold
1644611699900
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
6
1715658712230
0
0.6046752757093035
0.2544744951205104
P9VuZiUYWfCFtZF6g0lF
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2544744951205104
will-we-finish-this-wordle-in-4-rou
597
{"NO": 385, "YES": 212}
Will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644708123000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 385, "YES": 212}
0
4.68435230841058
True
play
NO
public
1644611700426
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen randomly from all words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Feel free to make derivative markets, tagged with #ManifoldPlaysWordle ! Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 601.8164171904916, "YES": 351.6048918886084}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644647738137
100
Manifold
1644611700426
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
9
1715658104465
0
1644636649452
0.2544744951205104
0.4678527586235055
j8QZiZJXbOKsW5DvnHNv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4678527586235055
will-mondays-xkcd-have-more-than-on
538.209847676341
{"NO": 226, "YES": 215.7901523236589}
Will Monday's xkcd have more than one panel?
1644825540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 226, "YES": 214}
0
4.7033159592342155
True
play
YES
public
1644612303919
charlie
This market resolves to YES if the xkcd posted on 2/14/22 has more than one panel. (Nested panels, as in https://xkcd.com/2574/, count.)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 395.227371925196, "YES": 370.58318045480206}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1644905265694
100
charlie
1644612303919
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
18
1715658565590
0
0.4678527586235055
0.015580785998292008
dDvtjDKt0HFv6R34kG1r
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.015580785998292008
will-there-be-more-than-one-public
288.26786466442024
{"NO": 274.5, "YES": 7.2321353355797555}
Will there be more than one public Astral Codex Ten post on 2/15/22?
1644998340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 274.5, "YES": 3.5}
0
4.738055202912331
True
play
NO
public
1644613458454
charlie
This market resolves to YES if there is more than one public post on astralcodexten.substack.com/ on 2/15/22.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 378.74661714660897, "YES": 47.64895746877771}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}
0
1644992365779
100
charlie
1644613458454
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
7
1715658458789
0
0.015580785998292008
0.45746691871455575
hc09FSBlbUphavMmhElm
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.45746691871455575
will-manifold-markets-guess-boner-i
15
{"NO": 10, "YES": 5}
Will Manifold Markets guess BONER in round 1 of this Wordle?
1644649140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 10, "YES": 5}
0
4.974821181696528
True
play
NO
public
1644615604046
charlie
This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w .
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 84.70537173048709, "YES": 77.78174593052023}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644620411251
100
charlie
1644615604046
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
2
1715658546373
0
0.45746691871455575
0.4000000000000001
272Q4YHxmdR06EB8Of5J
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4000000000000001
will-manifold-markets-guess-stage-i
10
{"NO": 6, "YES": 4}
Will Manifold Markets guess STAGE in round 1 of this Wordle?
1644649140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 6, "YES": 4}
0
4.988398938453521
True
play
YES
public
1644615678012
charlie
This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w .
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 85.20563361656316, "YES": 69.57010852370435}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1644620423704
100
charlie
1644615678012
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
1
1715656916131
0
0.4000000000000001
0.10000000000000002
4YSuLlifcKNqU3uiNjhv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.10000000000000002
will-manifold-markets-guess-igloo-i
10
{"NO": 9, "YES": 1}
Will Manifold Markets guess IGLOO in round 1 of this Wordle?
1644649140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9, "YES": 1}
0
4.988398938453521
True
play
NO
public
1644615733264
charlie
This market resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-igloo-in-round-1-will-w closes higher than both https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-stage-in-round-1-will-w and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/if-we-guess-boner-in-round-1-will-w .
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 104.35516278555652, "YES": 34.785054261852174}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1644620416862
100
charlie
1644615733264
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
1
1715656978588
0
0.10000000000000002
0.6559224670787422
M92qkdUfWzSeRHC6RIf7
{"NO": 86.95959847216307, "YES": 107.60494548665736}
0.39
what-will-the-amazon-lord-of-the-ri
160
{"NO": 50.5, "YES": 93.5}
What will the Amazon Lord of the Rings TV show's average audience score on Rotten Tomatoes be one month after the first episode airs?
1662120000000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50.5, "YES": 93.5}
0
3.0769292783575906
True
play
MKT
public
1644616556277
Kira
Resolved as a probability corresponding to the score.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 143.1258187749506, "YES": 197.61325866449346}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1668214471535
100
Kira
1668214462309
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
9
1650314548398
0
1
10
[{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860909402}]
["media-rating-futures"]
1662037154103
1668214461543
0.39
0.72050524052674
pMQ3P6o8s7kttn2mLm3l
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.72050524052674
will-two-or-more-people-show-up-to
205
{"NO": 65, "YES": 140}
Will two or more people show up to my house tomorrow for cheerful harberger?
1644714000000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 65, "YES": 140}
0
4.766695987472906
True
play
YES
public
1644620017865
Em ✨
https://www.lesswrong.com/events/bmrrKbKTBkg5MxtRB/cheerful-harberger-day
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 258.89186931999234}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616}
0
1644709767201
100
hamnox
1644620017865
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
6
1715658706040
0
0.72050524052674
0.010131629888022086
1M7e1xXJjvbMjsDfvneQ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.010131629888022086
will-alicorn-post-a-short-story-in
1041.1361172782167
{"NO": 910.11429643675, "YES": 16.749586285033274}
Will Alicorn post a short story in February?
1646121540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 911.5, "YES": 12.5}
0
4.662641540540706
True
play
NO
public
1644620220809
charlie
This market resolves to YES if a new short story appears on http://alicorn.elcenia.com/stories/stories.shtml during February 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1021.6487372092215, "YES": 103.36000869417217}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1646129167314
100
charlie
1644620220809
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
16
1715656894278
0
1
1645080018657
0.010131629888022086
0.04905912635809528
oVuRm69na3yCFk8JfVGm
{"NO": 268.6988982954994, "YES": 2235.377403874476}
0
will-russia-control-the-majority-of
34481.02922310962
{"NO": 9526.009435740503, "YES": 2411.247076108226}
Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?
1672527600000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9647, "YES": 2420}
0
2.542331442737087
True
play
NO
public
1644621373801
Duncn
Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year? Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES. Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 11390.079523150527, "YES": 3893.794137900918}
{"creatorFee": 28.842444654649302, "platformFee": 3.016817140545206, "liquidityFee": 12.06210049577361}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1672588910672
300.0049335712065
Duncn
1672136653488
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
186
1650314759162
0
1
165
[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1666311979010}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1666311977628}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662316143901}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504772}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1666311981214}]
["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "free-money"]
1672136653334
1667330358111
0.01
0.42603550295858
V9ftiPgDnD2WgEyq01hj
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.42603550295858
will-the-glowfic-thread-off-of-that
30
{"NO": 20, "YES": 10}
Will the glowfic thread 'off of that dark precipice' update on or before its anniversary?
1644641940000
ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 20, "YES": 10}
0
4.939478067851447
True
play
YES
public
1644623192492
Blazer
This market resolves to YES if the glowfic thread at https://glowfic.com/posts/4342 receives at least one tag before midnight ET on the date one year after it was created.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 98.48857801796103, "YES": 84.8528137423857}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644631951065
100
BlazingDarkness
1644623192492
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c
2
1715658239106
0
0.42603550295858
0.5641149734870802
K9PJ5sA4zd38UjVNnmcU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5641149734870802
if-we-guess-harpy-in-round-2-will-w
118
{"NO": 51, "YES": 67}
If we guess “HARPY” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644627540000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 51, "YES": 67}
0
4.821185416254534
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644623302725
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) Game History: https://i.imgur.com/QeyMETD.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 143.9270648627283, "YES": 163.7345412550449}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 80}
0
1644628704681
100
Manifold
1644623302725
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715657948631
0
0.5641149734870802
0.6177685950413223
c745wLpTCvorHkXu5LBR
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6177685950413223
if-we-guess-adorn-in-round-2-will-w
120
{"NO": 46, "YES": 74}
If we guess “ADORN” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644627540000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 46, "YES": 74}
0
4.819494920240895
True
play
NO
public
1644623303163
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) Game History: https://i.imgur.com/QeyMETD.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 136.01470508735443, "YES": 172.91616465790582}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 80}
0
1644647769707
100
Manifold
1644623303163
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658412942
0
0.6177685950413223
0.5735969947178735
smuTbjxrVWbCYoGVfjdE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5735969947178735
if-we-guess-valor-in-round-2-will-w
129
{"NO": 55, "YES": 74}
If we guess “VALOR” in round 2, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644627540000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55, "YES": 74}
0
4.8122197799358135
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644623303591
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) Game History: https://i.imgur.com/QeyMETD.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 149.53594885511643, "YES": 173.4358671094304}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 80}
0
1644628695438
100
Manifold
1644623303591
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
4
1715658794419
0
0.5735969947178735
0.38265092701728515
2LRo2jO8Ms8FrkXoC191
{"NO": 125.26328402450952, "YES": 614.9838712277541}
0
will-i-glowfic-thread-with-someone
1108.2416536129547
{"NO": 112.98604320330816, "YES": 153.6085808736298}
Will I glowfic thread with someone before the end of the year
1672560000000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 113, "YES": 161}
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1.7776984835435616
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NO
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1644626008458
Em ✨
Midnight Dec 31, 2022, Pacific I read a lot of glowfic, never authored before.
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1672607414383
240.52695563166057
hamnox
1672556645005
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
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[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390678}]
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1672556644849
1652750433102
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will-hamilton-return-to-f1-in-2022
531
{"NO": 50, "YES": 481}
Will Hamilton return to F1 in 2022 season?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 481}
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8.962698602642751
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1644628054410
Gaurav Agnihotri
This resolves to yes if Hamilton is on the grid for the 1st race on 18-20 March 2022
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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 614.947965278364}
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GauravAgnihotri
1671028917296
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgBTZrc3D25xBBs9Hu3ajvkLMfGy7-xZha66gPNYcw=s96-c
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test-question
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{"NO": 64.00722287304498, "YES": 64.03283342923177}
Test question
1645246740000
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{"NO": 64, "YES": 64}
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1644628086247
Andrew MacFie
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AndrewMacFie
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159
{"NO": 90, "YES": 69}
If we guess “MACHO” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644632100000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 90, "YES": 69}
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1644628562240
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) https://i.imgur.com/4WVnpGF.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, LOYAL Feb 11, 5:16pm: (should be VOILA, not LOYAL)
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1644647759377
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Manifold
1644628562240
0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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if-we-guess-polka-in-round-3-will-w
155
{"NO": 90, "YES": 65}
If we guess “POLKA” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644632100000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 90, "YES": 65}
0
4.793847885809151
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644628563022
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) https://i.imgur.com/4WVnpGF.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, LOYAL Feb 11, 5:16pm: (should be VOILA, not LOYAL)
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{"NO": 196.21416870348583, "YES": 162.8649747490233}
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100
Manifold
1644628563022
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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258
{"NO": 193, "YES": 65}
If we guess “VOILA” in round 3, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644632100000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 193, "YES": 65}
0
4.745683771101643
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644628563518
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have ~1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1 6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints. Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc) https://i.imgur.com/4WVnpGF.png Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜ Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, LOYAL Feb 11, 5:16pm: (should be VOILA, not LOYAL)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 318.76166645316687, "YES": 162.9570495560103}
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100
Manifold
1644628563518
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-the-ba2-variant-of-covid-cause
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{"NO": 190, "YES": 55}
Will the BA.2 variant of Covid cause another worldwide peak in cases?
1647061140000
uOLLZbyORthJRNtdfgHFTSFg6tf2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 190, "YES": 55}
0
4.750278660841244
True
play
NO
public
1644629701749
Richard Stiennon
Based on the Global case reporting recorded by Bing at https://www.bing.com/covid
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 310.40296390337517, "YES": 150.58220346375597}
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1647092641902
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RichardStiennon
1644629701749
0
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will-a-big-conflict-occur-in-the-we
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{"NO": 862, "YES": 1056}
Will a big conflict occur in the West Bank soon?
1654012740000
5GYtijq97nPR65xx7ZP5zvIUdSE2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 862, "YES": 1056}
0
3.3477280358895314
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NO
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1644629968505
C
There's been a large scale conflict in the West Bank with significant human casualties (>15 dead) and covered in international media. Feb 12, 6:35pm: @Duncan good question. Alright, I'll clarify. 15 or more dead in a single day. It seems awful to be "making bets" on this stuff...but it's more like making best on probable futures, and we need a way to define a conflict so it can be assessed as happening or not. So, this is what we have so far. Feb 12, 6:35pm: Single 24 hour period.
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herenow
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https://firebasestorage.…72d-2807a17f66d0
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can-you-see-my-profile-name
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Can you see my profile name?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 104}
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4.829153480085011
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1644630607825
Fuck You
This market resolves to yes if users can indeed see my profile, and will place the corresponding bet
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FuckYou
1644630607825
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7999999999999998
will-manifold-markets-display-count
50
{"NO": 9.999999999999998, "YES": 40}
Will Manifold Markets display countdowns to markets' closing times before 2022-05-01?
1648650240000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.999999999999998, "YES": 40}
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4.901971679398953
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1644630993386
N.C. Young
As of this market's opening, you can tell when a market closes by mousing over the close date, but this (a) is not easy to see and (b) requires the user to convert between time zones. This is kinda inconvenient, especially for short-term markets. This market resolves YES if, before May, there's an easy way to tell how long until a market closes. Some rounding would be okay, but it should be impossible for the market to close without a user knowing that that was coming soon.
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 67.08203932499372, "YES": 134.16407864998737}
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1644633075475
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NcyRocks
1644630993386
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
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1715658042718
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True
0.7999999999999998
0.5
IoK257UhQG9R7fMppP2N
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-the-food-supply-be-insufficien
100
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
Will the food supply be insufficient for the world population within 10 years?
1645243140000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0
4.837765190619555
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public
1644631350579
David Wilson
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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DavidWilson
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