CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will I take my usual dose of Fluoxetine on May 25?

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Rai

I currently am running low, arrived to USA, just refilled my weekly pill box, and am not aware of having any further stash of antidepressants. My existing supplies would last for 10 days assuming normal dosing (i.e., with May 22 being last day for which I have a normal dose). I will try to get a refill before I run out...

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will this market give me free money?

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Adam

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will-the-house-intelligence-subcomm

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Will the House Intelligence Subcommittee hearing on 5/17 reveal the the USG has in its possession physical artifacts from a UAP that did not originate from Earth?

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Dmitry Shevelenko

This markets to resolves to Yes after the hearing on 5/17 if one of the USG officials before the committee Ronald Moultrie, the Pentagon’s top intelligence official, or Scott Bray, the deputy director of naval intelligence, confirm that the USG has in its possession physical artifacts that have been determined to not h...

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Will Elon Musk back out of the deal to buy Twitter (successfully or not?)

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Lars Doucet

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if Elon Musk reneges on his offer to buy twitter. It resolves to \"NO\" if his offer to buy twitter closes. If the terms are renegotiated and he winds up buying it, it sill counts as \"NO\" because he did buy it. #Ec...

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What will be my Letterboxd rating for Jurassic World Dominion?

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Rahul Sridhar

This market resolves via PROB to (rating out of 5)/5 * 100%. You can see my Letterboxd profile here: https://letterboxd.com/fortenforge/ Jun 13, 11:08pm: https://letterboxd.com/fortenforge/film/jurassic-world-dominion/

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will-male-height-be-correlated-more

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Will male height be correlated (more than 0.1) with any sexual fetish in the data from my kink survey?

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Aella

I tested for ~300 sexual fetishes (though many of them were questions that only appeared conditional on previous questions). I also asked about gender (including trans/cis) and height. The question is, will height in biological males correlate with interest in any sexual fetish? (Not adjusting for any confounders, bu...

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Will Alice become friends with her former partner Bob's new girlfriend Carol?

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miriam

-Bob and Carol have been dating for several months -Alice and Bob aren't dating anymore, but are still close friends -Alice and Bob are close friends with Bob's former partner Dodo* and Alice's former partner Eve, who are also close friends with each other -Carol is friends with Eve -Alice wants to be friends with Caro...

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Will I finish the permissions model for my product by EOD tomorrow?

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Connor McCormick

Here's what needs to be done: 1. Set up OAuth 2. Create ownership filter functions for assets 3. Map source permissions to dest permissions 4. Enable override I've been designing it this week, but been slacking on the implementation. Family arrives today, but I have about 6 hours of work time still allocated between ...

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Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake before April 2023?

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Bolton Bailey

This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum mainnet merge happens before the beginning of April 2023.

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Will Jake Hadley beat Allan Nascimento in UFC Fight Night?

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Ray Doraisamy

Jake Hadley is an MMA fighter making his UFC debut after going undefeated in the regional British MMA circuits. Allan Nascimento has had one UFC fight after competing in various other promotions worldwide. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/85916-ufc-fight-night

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will-there-be-fewer-than-500-000-ma

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Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?

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niklaswik

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the number in the WHO World malaria report. https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports In 2020 the number was 627 000.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2021: 619 000", "type": "text"}]}]}

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niklaswik

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will-the-bitcoin-price-be-closer-to

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Will the Bitcoin price be closer to USD 0 than 100 000 on Jan 1 2023?

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niklaswik

Resolved according to the price on Kraken at 12.00 (noon) CET on 2023-01-01. If it is $50,000.00 or less it will resolve as "yes", if $50,000.01 or greater it will resolve as "no".

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will-tsla-close-the-week-above-725

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Will TSLA close the week above $725?

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Brian T. Edwards

Resolves to Yes if price $725.00+ at close on Friday May 13th. Trading closes at 3pm ET, question resolves at 4pm ET.

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BTE

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will-steph-curry-win-finals-mvp

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Will Steph Curry win Finals MVP

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Weixi Yen

This market resolves to YES after the conclusion of the NBA finals and the finals MVP is announced as Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors.

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Will I work for Manifold Markets before 2022-09-01

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Milli

Will I work for Manifold Markets full time or on a project (pay in M$ does not count)? This market will be decided ahead of time in case of YES. Pros: * Experience as a fullstack developer. * Diploma in (financial) mathematics * Enthusiastic about Prediction Markets Cons: * English not native language * Residence in ...

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will-mm-allow-you-to-follow-a-user

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Will MM allow you to follow a user so that you get notifications when they create a market by the end of 2022?

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Uzay

This market resolves YES if by the end of 2022 you can follow a user so that you receive notifications (email or other) when they create a new market. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am

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will-the-m1-macbook-air-be-less-tha

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Will the M1 Macbook Air be less than £850 on amazon.co.uk at any point in May?

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Wilf

Based on whichever colour is cheapest, from this link: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Apple-MacBook-Chip-13-inch-256GB/dp/B08N5NMHM3/ref=sr_1_2?crid=AR1UJ8ARVRSO&keywords=macbook+air+m1&qid=1652396059&sprefix=macbook+air+m%2Caps%2C104&sr=8-2

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{"NO": 19.24186170623987, "YES": 300.4985883981779}

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will-rust-stabilize-generic-associa

227

Will Rust stabilize Generic Associated Types?

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QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1

cpmm-1

0

3.7582659035735015

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NO

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1652399284882

Eric

See the stabilization PR at https://github.com/rust-lang/rust/pull/96709 This market will resolve on August 4, 2022 (three months after the PR was opened). It will be resolved as YES if it has gone through the final comment period with a disposition to merge, which will be identified by rfcbot leaving a comment sayin...

BINARY

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theincredibleholk

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[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]

["technology-default", "short-fuse"]

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1659609826977

0.0876337688045636

1IVdRqNKuU8Ibv70DWrY

who-will-win-the-2022-nobel-prize-i-95bea8c2dfb1

388.45959893750353

Who will win the 2022 Nobel Prize in Literature?

1664967540000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.763743657573434

True

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bfcaf58b1e25

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1652399378422

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 13, 11:47am: This market was created before it was possible to bid on \"None\", and so it has a different catch-all answer, \"Someone not mentioned in any answer at close time\". This answer has already been bought, so I will resolve it in plac...

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NcyRocks

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ANYONE

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["academic-awards", "world-default", "culture-default"]

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1663848650975

{"bfcaf58b1e25": 100}

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0.8984827112080328

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{"NO": 33.694905207148416, "YES": 116.85035916646078}

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will-i-create-a-career-plan-in-a-we

76

Will I create a career plan in a week?

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jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

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7.62465472043737

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NO

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1652399800646

Undox

This is a personal goal market, for a slight carrot / big stick in terms of Mana. Resolves YES if I achieve the goal. NO otherwise. Liquidity slowly added to keep prob at 90% until $500 is staked by myself. (This gives multiple people a chance to bet, not just first person to get a good deal if I use 500 liquidity fro...

BINARY

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101.50599102843542

Undox

1653028707977

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1653028706600

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poll-do-manifold-users-visit-the-ex

364.7696689769528

POLL: Do Manifold users visit the Explore page more than the Home page?

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cpmm-1

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MKT

public

1652399978534

Austin

This was a question that @SG wanted to ask in our survey, but we never got around to it... So let's run a poll here, as well as a prediction market for the results! The poll will be run here; respond with YES or NO as the first word of your comment to be eligible. You may respond multiple times; only your last respons...

BINARY

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1653223175339

0

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1653014543715

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0.94

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{"NO": 1779.083380966626, "YES": 13.405352856329898}

1

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5216.0357410591

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $715 on May 13, 2022?

1652468400000

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cpmm-1

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4.686563915465776

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YES

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1652400381842

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...

BINARY

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0

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117.77949097124527

Predictor

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[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529426153}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577814}]

["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]

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{"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774}

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NaN

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9.585280964326047

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YES

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1652400431340

Undox

BINARY

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100.00037990400459

Undox

1652400440744

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0.01

1652400438211

0.01

d2JmFTG3fqzqn8t2G3Bg

who-will-create-the-most-markets-th

276

Who will create the most markets this week?

1653019140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.781339644595356

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play

eaf365a9df69

public

1652400716823

Austin

Resolves to the single user who has created the most markets in between this market's open and close dates.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.600000000000001, "platformFee": 1.4000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1653223445869

400

Austin

1653011544413

0

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ANYONE

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1653011543085

1652439336264

{"eaf365a9df69": 100}

True

PAZloT1vmg7FAujb8Xh9

if-manifold-creates-a-leaderboard-f

342.4406220233434

If Manifold creates a leaderboard for "Most Comments", who will be #1 after one week?

1659326340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.8001076716248425

True

play

CANCEL

public

1652400999804

Austin

Resolves N/A if this leaderboard does not exist by market close. If multiple sorts are available, resolves to the top leaderboard user for "all-time comments"

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4176248809337357, "platformFee": 0.35440622023343393, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1660325241429

360

Austin

1653329151126

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

7

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ANYONE

[{"id": "80cb1cc8e6e2", "prob": 0.16583910710000951, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.352221342940656, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.07106061972532, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PAZloT1vmg7FAujb8Xh9", "createdTime": 1652401000021, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1653329148641

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True

0.1614713924684551

hzgU5zd6gM8pKcheM2iv

{"NO": 71.66521933608146, "YES": 1366.2221929316552}

0

will-instacart-ipo-in-2022

53855.59291568556

Will Instacart IPO in 2022?

1672551173377

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.595119850134585

True

play

NO

public

1652402034522

Jack

Resolves YES if in 2022 Instacart goes public. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc. Followup to https://manifold.markets/jack/will-instacart-file-to-ipo-in-2022 Instacart just filed confidentially for IPO. Confidential filing means they don't need to file a public S-1 until just 3 weeks before IPO...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.7814158874679056, "platformFee": 0.14550894774390835, "liquidityFee": 0.8730536864634502}

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1672551173377

120.87305368646345

jack

1672551364567

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

14

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573617}]

["economics-default"]

0.1

1672551125670

1672551362482

0.03

0.5040896228458984

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{"NO": 22.77583348461362, "YES": 708.6321761625723}

0

will-i-get-mana-for-filling-out-thi

1450.0355303797267

Will I get mana for filling out this survey?

1653019140000

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cpmm-1

0

3.6081777550180094

True

play

NO

public

1652403244270

Martin Randall

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScpym7Lv4DlDZAGaAgulgghdrBNIMkdaIiJjQkLe2oURko0_w/viewform > Participants of this survey will have M$500 added to their accounts. This survey shouldn't take longer than 3-5 minutes. Will I get M$500 added to my account by market close?

BINARY

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1653088714536

115.16606001201443

MartinRandall

1653078639261

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

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0

1

0.5

1653018220547

1653078636177

0.031637060994348105

kh4NNsBkazFwPf58B8rB

whos-going-to-be-math-team-captain

1136

Who's going to be Math Team captain next year?

1654055940000

oIIq7KNNJVRHXw0W7Pr0joSZim02

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.65817494942448

True

play

CANCEL

public

1652405379731

:)))))

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702835886139

620

Yes

1702616469146

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrv-ofVloKFrTXGb66LzYyqu-0DYRwMWdvbtsx=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9351735f8d65", "prob": 0.007748958539972228, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.045652331806984046, "userId": "oIIq7KNNJVRHXw0W7Pr0joSZim02", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.845762826951584, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kh4NNsBkazFwPf58B8rB", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 16...

1

4

1652730126738

1702616468484

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

True

0.6298545579225113

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{"NO": 293.85351800649306, "YES": 105.07363774537993}

0.8263552049125837

will-the-discord-explicit-content-f

268.13302811349985

Will the Discord explicit content filter be at least 95% accurate in identifying 3D female nudes by the end of 2032?

1786247940000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1652408437083

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Yes if the Discord explicit content filter will be at least 95% accurate in identifying 3D female nudes by the end of 2032. It will resolve No if it does not. I tested it and, though I found it the most impressive piece of t...

BINARY

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0

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161.3278282143074

EnopoletusHarding

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0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

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0

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455610}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 65.62794658953818, "YES": 214.7677085582826}

0

will-my-two-year-old-type-meaningfu

259

Will my two year old type meaningful content other than his first name this week?

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cpmm-1

0

2.7579129094324952

True

play

NO

public

1652410856675

Alicorn

This market resolves to YES if my two year old (who today abruptly noticed that laptops have letters on them, and has typed his name and humorous riffs thereupon several times today) types anything besides his (first) name that discernibly means something within the next week. That includes his middle or last names, s...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 5.833813740083014, "platformFee": 0.9723022900138356, "liquidityFee": 5.833813740083014}

0

1653066307361

105.83381374008302

Alicorn

1653028465274

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

13

0

1

0.45

1653028463553

1652893334702

0.19891425684403996

0.4987610275500534

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{"NO": 38.307825698995146, "YES": 272.78517558052516}

0

will-nasdaq-close-under-143-on-july

175

Will Nasdaq close under $143 on July 1st?

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cpmm-1

0

3.1971250360203376

True

play

NO

public

1652410932367

cos

See: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/ndaq/quote

BINARY

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cos

1656628811191

0

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566921}]

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0.5

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{"NO": 88.9044243578581, "YES": 113.9721141536125}

0.4380871120646754

conditional-on-being-nominated-woul

29.53687963088816

Conditional on being nominated, would Pete Buttigieg win the presidency?

1657518250151

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cpmm-1

0

2.767209053148645

True

play

MKT

public

1652411224483

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

BINARY

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0

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100.32879053318536

LivInTheLookingGlass

1656124377095

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

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0

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431874}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489465}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "olivia"]

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1656124375774

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{"NO": 165.42346017438, "YES": 698.0021691387133}

0

will-the-probability-of-the-questio

8428.483402728543

Will the probability of the question resolving as "Yes" exceed 50%?

1653019200000

0f64mQbfSJTtlonbJbItjy745u13

cpmm-1

0

1.2069084585636296

True

play

NO

public

1652415159111

Flawless Train

This market resolves to "YES" if, one week after it opens, the probability of this question resolving as "YES" exceeds 50%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 125.114940382264, "platformFee": 20.85249006371066, "liquidityFee": 125.114940382264}

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225.1149403822638

FlawlessTrain

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0.5

1653019198320

1652458219714

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{"NO": 118.7926491054917, "YES": 107.91158836689388}

0

will-i-remain-under-125-kg-in-2022

367.70342885329796

Will I remain under 125 kg in 2022?

1657378183887

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.6487483012644253

True

play

NO

public

1652415568069

Rai

I am trying to slowly lose weight. This is a chart of my last 12 months, in kg: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KcTe0QB_RLzv0ePpS-wEDbPddCfWQST8/view?usp=sharing This market resolves to YES if none of my body weight measurements in 2022 are 125.0 kg or higher. Reasons for hope: * I have moved to a new country, start...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.091478879175234, "platformFee": 1.0152464798625391, "liquidityFee": 6.091478879175234}

0

1657378183887

106.09147887917523

agentydragon

1657378178661

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

6

0

0.6

1654966913544

1657378177931

0.6192171857483676

0.4364061283552297

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{"NO": 194.46475149847993, "YES": 10840.860936687692}

0

conditional-on-the-elon-musk-twitte

53708.9847303577

Conditional on the Elon Musk Twitter deal going through, will Donald Trump tweet again by the end of the year?

1672552740000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

0.9670311443931925

True

basic

NO

public

1652415601914

Bolton Bailey

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Will manifold add the option to follow markets in May?

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Ian Philips

This allows those without an edge but interested in following any related information commenters surface about a market to subscribe.

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will-reddit-be-bought-by-another-co

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Will reddit be bought by another company by the end of 2022?

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Eli Gaultney

Resolves to "yes" if NY Times + Washington Post + Fox news all have articles with a headline like "reddit being bought by X", even if the actual purchase (legally) doesn't happen until after 2022.

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How many partners will Agrippa have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)

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Emmy

This market resolves PROB according to this formula: 2^(# partners) = odds, then convert odds to probability 0 gf = 1:1 = 50% 1 gf = 2:1 = 67% 2 gf = 4:1 = 80% 3 gf = 9:1 = 90% 4 gf = 16:1 = 94% Copied from https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have with adjustments "Partners" defined here a...

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Will my toddler be able to read any words by the time he is 3?

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Marshall Polaris

My son was born on 10/14/19, so he's a little over two and a half. He loves cars and he is interested in letters and words, so he often asks me what the different words say on the cars. In context (i.e. on a car he has seen before, where he has asked me before what the word on the car says) he can remember that a word ...

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Will at least 25 people try Refind on my advice?

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Štefan Kecskes

https://refind.com/stkecskes?invite=d557164775 I will resolve this as YES if referred-people-counter (invite link above) exceeds 20 before market close. Some additional informations: - at the time of market creation the counter is 0, - I am not going to share the link anywhere else, - I dont think this is a spa...

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will I regret using the free daily market trick?

1652430055567

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Adam

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will-a-protester-be-charged-under-1

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Will a protester be charged under 18 U.S.C. § 1507 (banning protests near courts and residences to influence justices) before August 31, 2022?

1661957940000

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1652440749135

Bjorn

It appears that under 18 U.S.C. § 1507, picketing or protesting with intent to sway a decision of the Supreme Court is illegal under federal law: 1. Whoever, with the intent of interfering with, obstructing, or impeding the administration of justice, or 2. with the intent of influencing any judge, juror, witness, or c...

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will-arbs-summer-intern-spend-at-le

1837.251234489412

Will Arb's summer intern spend at least 2 weeks in the Bahamas during the summer?

1655830497227

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1652444356633

@misha

At Arb Research, we recently hired a summer RA. As one of us (Misha) will be here and another one of us (Gavin) is likely to be here (70% according to https://manifold.markets/misha/will-gavin-spend-at-least-2-weeks-i), it probably makes sense to work together from here at some point.

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misha

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which-will-be-the-top-3-most-wanted

456

Which will be the top 3 most "wanted" programming/scripting/markup languages in the 2022 StackOverflow developer survey?

1659423540000

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1652450358527

Ben

See the options in the survey link here: https://stackoverflow.blog/2022/05/11/stack-overflow-2022-developer-survey-is-open/ Previous survey results: https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey This market resolves equally among the top 3 most "wanted" languages, as reported in the SO developer report, which has been ty...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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bcongdon

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447935}, {"name": "Python Questions", "slug": "python-questions", "groupId": "vBKvNFuJMP6gyWzCIGJ4", "createdTime": 1658529584512}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBK...

["python-questions", "technology-default", "programming"]

1659375467974

1668277068166

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will-i-arrive-in-nyc-on-may-17th

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Will I arrive in NYC on May 17th?

1652846340000

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1652451337670

Austin

So I caught covid: https://manifold.markets/Austin/do-i-have-covid And thus had to extend by Bahamas stay: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-extend-my-stay-in-ea-bahamas But I've now booked 5/17 to 5/20 to stop by in NYC. Will this happen on time? Reasons it might not: - I fail my covid test (today morning, I ju...

BINARY

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Austin

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1652830022813

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what-new-software-will-manifold-be

204

What new software will Manifold be using in a month?

1654919940000

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1652452259114

Austin

@agrippa has suggested two interesting libraries that we're likely adopting: - React Query for caching data, which @JamesGrugett and @Sinclair really liked - Hotjar, for doing user research Would love to find out about new kinds of software that we ought to adopt! Websites and libraries, VS Code extensions, etc, all c...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1654924920981

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1667247287112

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ANYONE

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will-manifold-market-make-comments

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Will Manifold Market make comments linkable?

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Milli

This market resolves "YES" when it happens or when the market closes and the feature is announced. Otherwise it resolves "NO" on close.

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Will I resolve this market as "YES?"

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1652461462238

Peter Berggren

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Will I resolve this market as "YES?"

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1652461489750

Law of Good Hearts

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Will I resolve this market as "YES?"

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1652461514876

Hugh Mann

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Will I resolve this market as "YES?"

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1652461540434

Say Jarva

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does-a-vaccinated-person-with-mild

350.93059463052896

Does a vaccinated person with mild symptoms and inconsistent rapid test results have Covid?

1653116340000

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1652465405861

Daniel Reeves

This is a hypothetical question auxiliary to https://manifold.markets/dreev/does-faire-actually-have-covid-afte but I intend to resolve it to a probability based on the most convincing case I hear. Suppose someone presents with a scratchy throat, mild cough, and slightly runny nose. They take 4 antigen rapid tests and...

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dreev

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will-the-trinity-college-cambridge

49.66860452956957

Will the Trinity College, Cambridge Angel Court gate break again this term?

1655506740000

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cpmm-1

0

2.890856405922749

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NO

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1652467878179

Wilf

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wilf

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will-japan-reopen-to-tourists-by-ju

423.63885302101045

Will Japan reopen to tourists by July 2022?

1659337140000

qkJ3Wu5LmFOeSpI0U78kbirpgL72

cpmm-1

0

2.9902598800303783

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1652468041479

Alex

This market resolves to "YES" if Japan allows foreign visitors at any time during the month of July 2022. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3177568/coronavirus-japan-expected-reopen-tourists-july-may May 15, 8:22am: UPDATE: Based on suggestion, this market now resolved to “YES” if Japan allows...

BINARY

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0

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hongalex

1663959846835

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["world-default"]

0.5

1659298139782

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0.8572370830683709

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will-mo-salah-win-the-20212022-prem

10

Will Mo Salah win the 2021-2022 Premier League Golden Boot?

1653238936096

oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43

cpmm-1

0

3.0833078432818084

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play

YES

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1652468280369

Nick Hansen

This market resolves to yes if Mo Salah wins the 2021-2022 Premier League Golden Boot Award. Note that this market will resolve to yes if there are multiple winners, and Mo Salah is included among them.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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NickHansen

1652635715054

0

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1652635713699

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YB5Zjou4tGk96ICriaBR

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-rust-support-async-functions-i

0

Will Rust Support Async Functions in Dynamic Traits by the End of 2022

1672560000000

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cpmm-1

0

3.3007008598092638

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NO

public

1652468472372

Eric

Supporting async functions in traits is a major goal of the Rust Async Working Group. Will we get it working this year? This market will be resolved as YES if the program at the following Rust Playground link compiles and runs on the beta version of rustc at the end of 2022: https://play.rust-lang.org/?version=beta&m...

BINARY

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0

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1673499652366

100

theincredibleholk

1652468472372

0

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450298}]

["technology-default"]

0.7

mKyMvONJyNBU3y6S0ox8

which-of-the-markets-i-create-this

561.9736102204137

Which of the markets I create this month will have the highest M$ amount bet by the end of July?

1656658740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.730581849775558

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play

9bbbfd65a839

public

1652472012573

SneakySly

Which of the markets I create this month will have the highest M$ amount bet by the end of June? Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm Jun 19, 3:31pm: End of JUNE not July, sorry.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1658219656361

680

SneakySly

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0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

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0

ANYONE

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1

1656658631740

1658219743677

{"9bbbfd65a839": 100}

True

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who-will-be-the-next-head-of-state

1586.8506297142785

Who will be the next head of state to die?

1662660470164

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.655492548078609

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play

55377bf43d0c

public

1652479438291

Daniel Reeves

No catch-all answers allowed. If some head of state actually dies, it's fair game to add them explicitly as an option and then dump all your money on them.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1662660470164

999.9999999999998

dreev

1662659782793

0

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ANYONE

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17

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468340}]

["politics-default"]

1662659702070

1662659780723

{"55377bf43d0c": 100}

True

eR08CYtfeUnqzbQv0lW8

among-the-heads-of-state-in-power-a

26027.154136213245

Among the heads of state in power as of May 17, 2022 and at the time of their death, who will be the next to die?

1652487609574

s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6200777236499935

True

play

bf495255e674

public

1652479651123

Quantum Gambler

Which head of state will be the next to die before July 31, 2022?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.791536461025595, "platformFee": 2.947884115256399, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652487609574

699.9999999999997

Mirek

1652487576833

0

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5

0

ANYONE

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419765}]

["world-default"]

1652487576606

{"bf495255e674": 100}

True

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what-will-be-announcedshown-in-the

412.84942389299795

What will be announced/shown in the next Nintendo Direct?

1663077600000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.829015084352527

True

play

MKT

public

1652485984729

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is kind of an experimental market. Rules: Resolves equally to every correct prediction. Be as safe or daring as you like. Only non-trivial predictions are allowed. \"Video games\" or \"stuff\" won't be chosen; \"a Mario game\" is toeing the li...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1663119454105

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NcyRocks

1663076362154

0

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ANYONE

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1

https://firebasestorage.…3d3-f93ef53da564

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[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459644}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665609682258}]

["nintendo", "gaming"]

1663076360766

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True

0.01177814245735379

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{"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes

6

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1652486620552

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

9.732616247227552

True

play

YES

public

1652486607375

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809}

0

1652486620552

100.08131378184248

PeterBerggren

1652486617893

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

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0.01

1652486617576

0.01

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will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-97e7bf359321

6

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

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cpmm-1

0

9.732616247227552

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YES

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1652486636757

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-e2eb99bee29f

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Will I resolve this market "YES?"

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cpmm-1

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9.732616247227552

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1652486663537

Law of Good Hearts

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0

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PeterBerggrenf455

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will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-29ac15e442a2

6

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

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0

9.732616247227552

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1652486681967

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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SayJarva

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will-34-major-ethereum-testnets-hav

770.6799087256609

Will 3/4 major Ethereum testnets have gone through the merge by the end of August?

1662008340000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.8272683398581844

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NO

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1652486889410

Bolton Bailey

This market resolves to "YES" if, by the end of August (U.S. Central Time), at least 3 of the Rinkeby, Kovan, Ropsten, and Goerli Ethereum testnets have gone through the merge and switched to proof-of-stake.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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BoltonBailey

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0

1

9

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["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap"]

0.5

1662005629676

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{"NO": 90.02966949137809, "YES": 202.82616808923106}

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will-i-decide-to-do-freelance-progr

116.22058268871903

Will I decide to do freelance programming as my next career step in 2022

1672534800000

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cpmm-1

0

2.6832359460424597

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NO

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1652486942650

Undox

Resolves YES if I make a big move towards freelance programming, all of: 1. I have resigned from employment, given notice, or seriously plan to (with 90%+ probability as decided by me) 2. I have a business plan and a way to market myself and I have started executing it. 3. I have agreement (to 90% chance of signed cont...

BINARY

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0

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Undox

1672529137228

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

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0

5

6

0.4

1672529137111

1652677410746

0.2

ijUf5qFhSKNBspZ4ajI8

eharding-chooses-the-best-35-weekly

101

Eharding chooses the best $35 weekly diet

1653108278962

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cpmm-multi-1

0

5.01564734330884

True

play

bd7f9401db40

public

1652487463855

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is my attempt: https://twitter.com/Enopoletus/status/1525226644973273089 let's see if anyone can do it better Diets with more protein and fiber are favored. Do not cut out any important nutrients. Order from Amazon. Keep to under $35. Quality ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1653108278962

240

EnopoletusHarding

1653108319291

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

1

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ANYONE

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1653108258688

1653108323460

{"bd7f9401db40": 100}

True

0.6956016661198294

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{"NO": 88.44391770641548, "YES": 13.846041777855618}

0.9358847011032172

testing123-do-not-trade-i-am-sorry

10231.27452694253

testing123 - do not trade - i am sorry

1652491081367

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cpmm-1

0

8.008800366996988

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CANCEL

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1652488172917

Quantum Gambler

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1652491081367

106.0368199877241

Mirek

1652491708063

0

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3

0

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["technology-default"]

0.9

1652490173649

1652491707438

0.9358847011032171

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what-costume-will-i-wear-for-hallow

129

What costume will I wear for Halloween 2022?

1667188740000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.94161484363

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c3ca02260251

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1652489208574

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-30 11:59 pm ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 23: One word answers only, please.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 29: current plan is one of the e...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667262117388

640

MartinRandall

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0

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ANYONE

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1

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["fun"]

1665525161073

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True

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{"NO": 16.432100629359127, "YES": 663.8984843138708}

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will-ivf-be-substantially-restricte

1403.3988334649484

Will IVF be substantially restricted in any US state in 2022?

1672559940000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.206594182790587

True

play

NO

public

1652489726083

Jack

If Roe v Wade is overturned, some states have laws that will take effect that prohibit the destruction of fertilized embryos, which may affect IVF. (The language varies and the exact meaning is unclear.) Here's one article on the topic: https://www.wired.com/story/ramifications-of-post-roe-world/ Resolves YES if IVF ...

BINARY

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0

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1673108790268

101.96378789947177

jack

1708617561426

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

16

0

2

15

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431664}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487890}]

["us-politics", "politics-default"]

0.5

1672551797817

1708617560659

0.02

0.2526511354239505

Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al

{"NO": 1193.4452856289188, "YES": 1365.070014077893}

0.22813292858359444

will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on

12870.26762529967

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

1893477600000

UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1

cpmm-1

0.13272166448806835

8.74108081184145

False

basic

public

1652491278401

Jonathan Ray

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea. Regardless of treaties, the war \"ends\" when there is a 1 year perio...

BINARY

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0

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1260.390868185129

JonathanRay

1718631520528

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660

3

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0

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["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "how-it-ends", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.1636242522290076

0.6

1718631517310

1700010006147

AnfinuZ7Dhz8OPUYjzTn

who-will-win-top-artist-at-the-2022

8395

Who will win "Top Artist" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652666912065

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.621058423962134

True

play

f8e5785c44bf

public

1652492594486

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:04 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.919999999999996, "platformFee": 1.229999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652666912065

380

Predictor

1652666875728

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d7d3143b3736", "prob": 0.00014189222505100137, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00018030070956417938, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2705074307667203, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AnfinuZ7Dhz8OPUYjzTn", "createdTime": 1652492594655, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...

1

1652666874335

{"f8e5785c44bf": 100}

True

KkFQ1WR7heynb3HyxtkU

which-song-will-win-top-hot-100-son

9039

Which song will win "Top Hot 100 Song" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667714243

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620636554877307

True

play

b7788a92ca7

public

1652493067533

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/#:~:text=SONG%20AWARDS-,Top%20Hot%20100%20Song,-Doja%20Cat%20ft Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.24, "platformFee": 1.31, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667714243

439.99999999999994

Predictor

1652667699064

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1270d72aece2", "prob": 0.00012239374604186275, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00013154558983126649, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.0746422405337952, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KkFQ1WR7heynb3HyxtkU", "createdTime": 1652493067797, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...

1

1652667697756

{"b7788a92ca7": 100}

True

0ymop3e7JqYgI8QgNxYJ

who-will-win-top-new-artist-at-the

8591.99411925228

Who will win "Top New Artist" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667028293

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.621025460515221

True

play

37424d669a8d

public

1652493297783

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.2, "platformFee": 1.05, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667028293

320

Predictor

1652667010146

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f45a2e98170c", "prob": 0.00014031648578857037, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0001773055148772757, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2634341217584697, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0ymop3e7JqYgI8QgNxYJ", "createdTime": 1652493298000, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

1652667009953

{"37424d669a8d": 100}

True

6mYyCSVBWePBaVaySgvL

who-will-win-top-billboard-200-albu

8780.728256470935

Who will win "Top Billboard 200 Album" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667353375

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620818686178241

True

play

d402cb07e39e

public

1652493564789

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.160000000000119, "platformFee": 1.2900000000000298, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667353375

420.0000000000001

Predictor

1652667345835

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "038902b5e084", "prob": 0.0001306339891468524, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00015927271228304035, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2190694542310065, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6mYyCSVBWePBaVaySgvL", "createdTime": 1652493565137, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

1652667344560

{"d402cb07e39e": 100}

True

roDqWkuusQqpLt57Oom1

who-will-win-best-soundtrack-at-the

8924.42448723171

Who will win "Best Soundtrack" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667443014

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620758626034281

True

play

19358cd35317

public

1652493821077

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.0799999999999805, "platformFee": 1.0199999999999951, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667443014

380

Predictor

1652667426415

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0ce6bdf83537", "prob": 0.00012788682880537187, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00013016943176740283, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.017718447062624, "textFts": "", "contractId": "roDqWkuusQqpLt57Oom1", "createdTime": 1652493821315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

1652667426286

{"19358cd35317": 100}

True

1hNElaAKwynmzG0taoQM

who-will-win-top-streaming-songs-ar

26607

Who will win "Top Streaming Songs Artist" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667578363

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620689390174006

True

play

7044cadd18c4

public

1652493950665

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.6400000000000015, "platformFee": 1.1600000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667578363

340

Predictor

1652667558231

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b967dd8ac035", "prob": 0.0001247563990956708, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00016722553142426314, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3402492391665064, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1hNElaAKwynmzG0taoQM", "createdTime": 1652493950894, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

1652667557920

1652495272778

{"7044cadd18c4": 100}

True

7tBjFjRAe9XlNc8Ub43Z

who-will-win-top-duogroup-at-the-20

8653.685120591963

Who will win "Top Duo/Group" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667120353

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620896996552144

True

play

5ce12df4d3e5

public

1652494191536

Predictor 🔥

https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/2022-billboard-music-award-nominations-bbma-1235056949/ Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.265426253160025, "platformFee": 1.0663565632900063, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667120353

340

Predictor

1652667109257

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3463c5998b5c", "prob": 0.00013426002301143402, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00016595026707244816, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.2358703869106389, "textFts": "", "contractId": "7tBjFjRAe9XlNc8Ub43Z", "createdTime": 1652494191731, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...

1

1652667108037

{"5ce12df4d3e5": 100}

True

0.20211455012471302

CNT6N8b3ej4TKZyfOrOI

{"NO": 224.732408330673, "YES": 225.81554856096105}

0

will-manifold-solve-the-user-cred-p

184.87313421271367

Will Manifold solve the "user cred" problem by the end of 2022?

1672549200000

7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2

cpmm-1

0

2.2806809645340813

True

play

NO

public

1652494290540

journcy

Everybody loves having internet points that say how cool they are. M$ in your wallet is *nice*, but given that people can just buy M$ with real $, it isn't fully satisfying. Likewise for e.g. total profit--it's obviously an improvement, but I kind of suspect it has a lot to do with how much leverage you have, i.e. are ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8156979199089416, "platformFee": 0.413828005512901, "liquidityFee": 2.482968033077406}

0

1672586836040

222.48296803307738

journcy

1667356682552

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c

12

0

1

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663365641323}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.2

1667356682391

1659400355008

0.2

bxsZo074IfUxCWvYtrkr

what-will-my-user-cred-market-be-pr

195

What will my "user cred" market be priced at by the end of June?

1656647940000

7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.842857084650414

True

play

b9e47d35ee2b

public

1652494871181

journcy

Referring to: https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-manifold-solve-the-user-cred-p Resolution: I'll note the probability of *that* market 1-6 days (selected randomly) before the resolution date of *this* market, and resolve this market to the closest response. So if I roll a 3 on my d6, and on Monday the 27th the base...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656692541303

280

journcy

1656509033471

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c1773e45f212", "prob": 0.26298487836949375, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.229524380148096, "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 76.31074207536504, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bxsZo074IfUxCWvYtrkr", "createdTime": 1652494871448, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1656509032178

{"b9e47d35ee2b": 100}

True

0.4925337642928878

Jrs2c8lHkriAH0cC5DLw

{"NO": 36.024747814391446, "YES": 299.79999999999995}

0

will-any-more-of-liber-primus-cicad

200

Will any more of Liber Primus (Cicada 3301) be solved by the end of 2022?

1653105540000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

3.264769931394979

True

play

NO

public

1652495380950

DAL59

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1999999999999993, "platformFee": 0.19999999999999993, "liquidityFee": 1.1999999999999993}

0

1672549852045

101.2

DAL59

1653089737283

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

1

0

1

5

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446784}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1652627795769

1653089734395

0.1

s26gaspNucptfuJlYqP2

who-will-win-top-radio-songs-artist

9159

Who will win "Top Radio Songs Artist" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?

1652667950065

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620564484774904

True

play

e46dabccc651

public

1652495447947

Trent Yazzo

Close date updated to 2022-05-15 8:00 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-15 11:00 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.3999999999999995, "platformFee": 1.0999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652667950065

280

kazoo

1652667927979

0

https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2667da9a53b4", "prob": 0.00011920758285156482, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00022561283302254836, "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.892379099263837, "textFts": "", "contractId": "s26gaspNucptfuJlYqP2", "createdTime": 1652495448012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548027}]

["culture-default"]

1652667926750

{"e46dabccc651": 100}

True

0.1392828114706732

iJnVrgm1lc41sMBfX1Ia

{"NO": 214.97828069602213, "YES": 773.0410557615287}

0

conditional-on-the-smtm-potato-stud

1543.0671371446228

Conditional on the SMTM potato study yielding credible positive results, "Potato Diet would fix this" will become a recognizable internet meme

1672552740000

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cpmm-1

0

2.883718173922567

True

play

NO

public

1652502065091

Lars Doucet

Plagiarizing text from another market to give the context: On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 6.301733809219995, "platformFee": 0.9869961822818389, "liquidityFee": 5.921977093691033}

0

1672616017141

305.921977093691

LarsDoucet

1672386206079

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

34

0

1

34

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423711}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532391}]

["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default"]

0.5

1672386205959

1666983425467

0.04

0.4776540436664417

0c6SH8JheUGjf6dM7HRK

{"NO": 27.346045401254557, "YES": 548.976929163436}

0

will-bitcoin-fall-below-25000-by-th

771.3310679164138

Will Bitcoin fall below $25,000 by the end of May?

1654066740000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

3.5409713840432744

True

play

NO

public

1652505251043

Richard

May 14, 5:41pm: to clarify, this resolves as True if the price of Bitcoin is ever below $25,000 for any day before June 1 (when you check the next day) according to the chart that comes up when you Google “Bitcoin price.” May 14, 5:44pm: to further clarify, price points below $25k before this market was created do not...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.42100876377501, "platformFee": 1.2368347939625015, "liquidityFee": 7.42100876377501}

0

1654094466078

107.421008763775

Richard

1654062191570

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

11

0

1

0.5

1654062190166

1652575506060

0.04356628570479376

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is-this-still-free-money

101

is this still free money?

1652506816844

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.01564734330884

True

play

1c6e34bfa17b

public

1652506804704

Adam

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1652506816844

240

Adam

1652506812446

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e856019a2f85", "prob": 0.9802960494069209, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.35542839821462, "userId": "ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6704441108041119, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H3rPtcNiuEGo54QbgGtE", "createdTime": 1652506804789, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1652506812155

{"1c6e34bfa17b": 100}

True

0.47379458828984417

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{"NO": 90.68405168179386, "YES": 171.93453793229108}

0

will-my-weight-go-under-115-kg-in-2

337.6329737760276

Will my weight go under 115 kg in 2022?

1672559940000

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cpmm-1

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1652511242132

Rai

For details on my recent weight, etc., see: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-remain-under-125-kg-in-2022 Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

BINARY

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agentydragon

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Will my weight go under 110 kg in 2022?

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1652511491497

Rai

For details on my recent weight, etc., see: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-remain-under-125-kg-in-2022 Resolves to YES if at any point in 2022 a weight measurement I take is under 110 kg.

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agentydragon

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1667245236472

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Where will I live in a month?

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Rai

Resolves to the co-living community (if co-living) or apartment/Airbnb/hotel/... (if not) that I'll consider my home at market close. I've moved to USA recently, my current sublet ends at end of May. May 14, 12:13am: answer must uniquely identify a building, or unit within it. Won't resolve to "Somewhere else", "Some...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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agentydragon

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ANYONE

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1654299197956

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will-there-be-an-electricity-shorta

1655.9894721433436

Will there be an electricity shortage in the EU before the end of 2022?

1672527540000

0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2

cpmm-1

0

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public

1652520624120

Donald

This market will resolve "YES" if there an electricity shortage in ANY EU country is reported.

BINARY

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Donald

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1672518568936

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will-manifold-markets-make-it-able

446

Will Manifold Markets make it able to add a default market resolution

1653170340000

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1652529812489

Milli

Details: The creator of a market would be allowed to set a default resolution. This is used if the creator doesn't resolve the market manually before time x after market close. x would also be set by the creator. This market resolves "YES" when it happens or when the market closes and the feature is announced. Otherw...

BINARY

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Milli

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will-at-least-1-person-die-of-open

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Will at least 1 person die of open North Korea-South Korea military conflict in 2022?

1672564096746

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1652532840671

Bjorn

This market resolves "yes" if at least one person dies of military conflict between the Koreas in 2022, according to media reports. This market resolves "no" if there is no such media report by Jan 1, 2023. Note the related but less precise market for "major flare-up in conflict" in 2022: https://manifold.markets/Oliv...

BINARY

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brp

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which-cryptocurrency-will-increase

211

Which cryptocurrency will increase the most by the end of 2022?

1653191940000

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97e50f31f2b2

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1652536288850

Austin

Seeing the recent crash, I'm looking to put about $20k into crypto. What should I buy? I'll commit to putting in at least $10k into one of the top 3 choices. Market closes in a week, but resolves to the single crypto token with the highest % increase between today and the end of the year.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1672788248359

520

Austin

1672788235974

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{"NO": 85.15313606918085, "YES": 119.91349671618302}

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will-dow-close-under-68-on-june-1st

20

Will Dow close under $68 on June 1st?

1654055940000

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1652541427844

cos

See: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/dow/quote

BINARY

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cos

1653959223253

0

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2

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565219}]

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1653959223044

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will-i-implement-an-mvp-of-charity

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Will I implement an MVP of Charity Equity before leaving the Bahamas?

1652930986542

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cpmm-1

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3.295207545049063

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1652543598480

Austin

This tentatively gives me 3.5 days to get something up and running for: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charity-Equity-2bc1c7a411b9460b9b7a5707f3667db8 See also: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-implement-retroactive https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-arrive-in-nyc-on-may-17th

BINARY

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1652930986542

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Austin

1652930970370

0

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will-apple-announce-an-iphone-with

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Will Apple announce an iPhone with a USB-C port by the end of 2023?

1696517420384

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cpmm-1

0.06305553063226389

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1652555608177

Nick Hansen

BINARY

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NickHansen

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who-will-win-the-2022-nobel-memoria

776.71435047274

Who will win the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics?

1665313140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.67836985321865

True

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MKT

public

1652572707352

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 13, 11:52am: This market was created before it was possible to bid on \"None\", and so it has a different catch-all answer, \"Someone not mentioned in any answer at close time\". This answer has already been bought, so I will resolve it in plac...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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NcyRocks

1665402455331

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aobtd

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YES

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1652574524374

Undox

BINARY

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Undox

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will-i-learn-the-japanese-kana-by-t

246

Will I learn the Japanese kana by the end of the month?

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1652575031871

Enopoletus Harding

In order of difficulty, I have found learning East Asian writing systems to be Zhuyin>pinyin>Hangil>Chinese characters (per character, not total)>Kana. I've found the kana harder to learn than Chinese characters, easily. Will I learn all the Japanese kana by the end of the month? I must be able to recognize ALL the Ja...

BINARY

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Will I resolve this market as "YES?"

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9.732616247227552

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1652577373848

Hugh Mann

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9.732616247227552

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YES

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1652577402436

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

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PeterBerggrenf455

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