p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.9882218575426462 | TfRFdXF68Q3exF8B5eo0 | {"NO": 0.5309599658576571, "YES": 105.98644770302626} | 0 | will-i-resolve-this-market-as-yes-be27f881cb47 | 6 | Will I resolve this market as "YES?" | 1652577441161 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227558 | True | play | NO | public | 1652577432581 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247803, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746339, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247803} | 0 | 1652577441161 | 100.08131378184248 | SayJarva | 1652577438546 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652577437265 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9867864979809529 | wF1TWuYXQawcopkT7LJD | {"NO": 0.13758083592040093, "YES": 107.87090794306707} | 0 | is-manifolds-leaderboard-system-a-f | 910 | Is Manifold's leaderboard system a fair indicator of a person's predictive ability? | 1652577564191 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620373337647823 | True | play | NO | public | 1652577491509 | Peter Berggren | Resolves to my judgement here. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.121825791918026, "platformFee": 0.020304298653004337, "liquidityFee": 0.121825791918026} | 0 | 1652577564191 | 100.12182579191801 | PeterBerggren | 1652577557633 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652577557489 | 0.9990130278475844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7766823449350796 | vUokWrVgV11LBYhOz1tA | {"NO": 123.01477993298789, "YES": 99.00387638781194} | 1 | will-junran-make-her-flight | 547.6832597506904 | Will Junran Make her Flight? | 1653202740000 | XD5ADmj46lZfqhVJl1RmuMG0vAq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8923261345629845 | True | play | YES | public | 1652579811602 | Andre Vacha | Resolves EOD | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.965537706362847, "platformFee": 0.6609229510604746, "liquidityFee": 3.965537706362847} | 0 | 1690437884671 | 103.96553770636285 | AndreVacha | 1660164636673 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCi0G-1CrSVLK8b5yyvYeROwSAzZ5WSSQAweR4=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.8 | 1653193033905 | 1660164635160 | 0.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4008635196892267 | 5I34qMju8fK95XnsZVxQ | {"NO": 88.17426180612694, "YES": 552.8047012569249} | 0 | will-i-move-out-of-state-by-the-end | 364.0000109587419 | Will I move out of state by the end of 2023? | 1704096000000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.168572441323402 | True | play | NO | public | 1652587009317 | Eric | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1426872770511296, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854936, "liquidityFee": 0.1426872770511296} | 0 | 1704139542892 | 200.14268727705112 | theincredibleholk | 1704139543174 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128851338}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.0827479260679991 | 0.5 | 1704078869897 | 1697328600210 | 0.1 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4688921108047121 | xF5infi2GxHzjPLatzBf | {"NO": 28.510345113487425, "YES": 671.3512682991693} | 0 | will-my-daughter-have-a-puppy-by-he | 750.5453696749984 | Will my daughter have a puppy by her 10th birthday (in Aug 2022) | 1661788538986 | 0f64mQbfSJTtlonbJbItjy745u13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.47271411314295 | True | play | NO | public | 1652588134508 | Flawless Train | The market resolves to Yes if my nine-year-old daughter has a dog on or before her tenth birthday in August. The market will resolve at the end of August. From her lips:
"I ask every day but my dad doesn't want to say yes. My dad is allergic to cats and dogs. My mom says no, but she doesn't have a strong opinion. Our ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.165168989744902, "platformFee": 0.6941948316241504, "liquidityFee": 4.165168989744902} | 0 | 1661788538986 | 122.16516898974488 | FlawlessTrain | 1661418485905 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0.5 | 1661418485833 | 1652742248231 | 0.036137485011534985 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7415671768756593 | PHInSROgx2pxJy0sulgu | {"NO": 32.82191112810469, "YES": 156.61223884737996} | 0.25 | should-creators-set-the-initial-pro | 88 | Should creators set the initial probability of daily free markets to their true beliefs? | 1653202740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.795800995243421 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652597731675 | Jack | Trying to understand the implications of the initial probability setting, especially for daily free markets where the initial $100 liquidity is provided by Manifold, not the market author.
Some of the potential considerations:
* Author profit: It seems like setting the initial probability to your true belief is the wo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3630233774347253, "platformFee": 0.39383722957245426, "liquidityFee": 2.3630233774347253} | 0 | 1653234090138 | 102.36302337743471 | jack | 1653234429480 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586186}] | ["free-markets"] | 0.75 | 1653150751881 | 1653234428630 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5120512763004854 | mqhAFrdgnsyWWGsdFckr | {"NO": 265.673730757814, "YES": 44.44560308381145} | 1 | will-i-go-to-the-gym-this-month | 285 | Will I go to the gym this month? | 1652779358262 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0394007176542335 | True | play | YES | public | 1652600384214 | SneakySly | I have a gym membership but I haven't been in months. This month is half way over, but will I make it to the gym and workout by the end of the month?
May 16, 12:29pm: The weather is nice, and I thought of this market. Planning on going later today! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.250012912874129, "platformFee": 0.5416688188123548, "liquidityFee": 3.250012912874129} | 0 | 1652779358262 | 103.25001291287414 | SneakySly | 1652779356809 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652775073872 | 1652779353701 | 0.6013655579010729 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01632408419419578 | P97n2JvrvQr6XChBO4T5 | {"NO": 144, "YES": 1.3159251466277053e-13} | 1 | test-196 | 44 | test 196 | 1652603753820 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59593101457845 | True | play | YES | public | 1652603734817 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14, "platformFee": 8.597567102697212e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14} | 0 | 1652603753820 | 100.00000000000006 | Electricitypipe | 1652603748902 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652603748772 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5038576876741949 | BZv9VEy6pAHO5s9j13DR | {"NO": 183.64139838458837, "YES": 68.41461940548757} | 1 | will-bitcoin-be-at-least-30000-at-1 | 301.6647040897683 | Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Monday May 16th | 1652770740000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6784883711601166 | True | play | YES | public | 1652608665867 | Alex Rockwell | Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Monday May 16th
Measured by Coinmarketcap average price of BTC. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.834046288795638, "platformFee": 0.9723410481326062, "liquidityFee": 5.834046288795638} | 0 | 1652770910294 | 105.83404628879565 | AlexRockwell | 1652770933620 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652765832162 | 1652770929960 | 0.7316145194719189 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3946341713138946 | XXDjPaGPCAWv3ASTLIkV | {"NO": 28.577186766711883, "YES": 814.0506078281238} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-add-an-option | 911.8657848327563 | Will Manifold Markets add an option on market creation to disable betting for the market creator? | 1659304740000 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.0023175974369956 | True | play | NO | public | 1652616271671 | Milli | Explanation: For many markets the market creator could have insider knowledge or can rug pull the market by resolving dishonestly. When the market creator could disable betting on the market for himself (on market creation, displayed publicly). This would become harder to do.
Example: https://manifold.markets/MilliOna... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.192535605497474, "platformFee": 0.5967839105082932, "liquidityFee": 3.580703463049758} | 0 | 1659337290069 | 103.58070346304976 | Milli | 1659241132469 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1659241132346 | 1658300775060 | 0.022372688681958894 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5983979557509485 | C3sNsM2LikBVBXg3Unai | {"NO": 582.2929554222169, "YES": 31.799982969041153} | 1 | will-i-release-my-rougelite-go-to-h | 801.5257106281722 | Will I release my rougelite, Go To Heck, by Aug 31 2022? | 1661932576024 | PEF8vg7713N8srMmxdD5YCJgltm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.707883485954391 | True | play | YES | public | 1652616611016 | Vilkas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been working on a game off and on since last year, and it's already probably at a releasable state. However, there's changes I want to make to chase fun, and there's more external stuff that needs doing (finalise Steam page, make trailers, pos... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.355386790064493, "platformFee": 0.1852064607396981, "liquidityFee": 1.1112387644381887} | 0 | 1661932576024 | 101.1112387644382 | Vilkas | 1661928727421 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0.6 | 1661928727191 | 1661863389697 | 0.9591550240088044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.088252026231872 | lwKs2O7IGZ2RV32LecIA | {"NO": 241.8552303413402, "YES": 2797.2213488951807} | 0 | will-spacex-ipo-before-2024 | 17828.246255280224 | Will SpaceX IPO before 2024? | 1704088740000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0.011201067123319515 | 3.8486301527259896 | True | play | NO | public | 1652620732632 | Bolton Bailey | Resolves "Yes" if SpaceX IPOs on or before December 31st 2023.
Jun 3, 8:54am: Note: If Starlink as a separate entity IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.74505429046703, "platformFee": 8.078016857803103, "liquidityFee": 48.46810114681861} | 0 | 1704126275749 | 768.4844187268351 | BoltonBailey | 1710451946626 | 1.1 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 41 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "e... | ["technology-default", "space", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.14400948400998356 | 0.43 | 1704087048632 | 1702390104317 | False | 0.01 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1ZuAazJ7sa1U7OPvtfMY | which-new-movie-is-worth-watching | 120 | Which new movie is worth watching? | 1652631628304 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.962206060634121 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652620934099 | David Chee | I will choose the answer based on which movie has the most recommendations (a test market) | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652631628304 | 260 | SirSalty | 1652995113861 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "89c6518567e3", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.8446708789263, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.13165518672758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1ZuAazJ7sa1U7OPvtfMY", "createdTime": 1652620934203, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1652625456179 | 1652995112290 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PgfMNpVuuekMSfFWkapy | in-the-owl-house-what-will-luzs-pal | 369.65282968595443 | In the Owl House, what will Luz's palisman be? | 1674691140000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.769822129081938 | True | play | fcbe07793e73 | public | 1652623127378 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-05-28 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2023-01-01 12:00 am", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-06-01 12:00 am", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBr... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675004769698 | 599.9999999999998 | Tetraspace | 1674614434266 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8b4a67cf24fd", "prob": 0.1123456221858463, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.828503731619183, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.34830046053854, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PgfMNpVuuekMSfFWkapy", "createdTime": 1652623127453, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 4 | 6 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543878}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669223409446}] | ["culture-default", "fiction"] | 1674614434082 | 1674512866822 | {"fcbe07793e73": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26500942695821406 | NWMqmz3DtTaSIVuXA6fb | {"NO": 204.24691290152055, "YES": 906.6761308889357} | 0 | will-the-median-prediction-for-meta | 2106.3526380411595 | Will the median prediction for Metaculus' General AI forecast be earlier than June 2027 at the end of 2022? | 1671955140000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.646104985481308 | True | play | NO | public | 1652625120662 | Ben | Market in question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/ ("Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known")
Resolves YES if the Community Prediction for this forecast is May 31, 2027 or earlier, as measured on Dec 31, 2022.
Current community forecast at time of market creation i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1628143451732162, "platformFee": 0.5271357241955361, "liquidityFee": 3.1628143451732162} | 0 | 1672678537916 | 323.1628143451732 | bcongdon | 1672678536456 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 2 | 18 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447303}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1662381783323}] | ["technology-default", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.5 | 1671944224970 | 1672678533020 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6516922902506934 | XQrUnVjl8M60MuqkRRcq | {"NO": 185.39469608429306, "YES": 75.00434062818518} | 1 | will-i-release-my-book-the-arena-ri | 110 | Will I release my book, 'The Arena: Rise, Gamer' in an ebook format before July 30? | 1654533643789 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.094465538495709 | True | play | YES | public | 1652625936059 | Ray Doraisamy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3943989886149828, "platformFee": 0.23239983143583048, "liquidityFee": 1.3943989886149828} | 0 | 1654533643789 | 101.39439898861498 | RayDoraisamy | 1654533687142 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 1654019113133 | 1654533686652 | 0.8222150417265104 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3wzWq1RVUyKrhYQIoliJ | which-tv-shows-will-be-nominated-fo | 125 | Which TV shows will be nominated for the 2022 Emmy for Best Drama? | 1652942481869 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.950453801175342 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652626961577 | Richard | On July 12, the Television Academy will announce the 2022 nominees for Emmys including the “Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series.” | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652942481869 | 280 | Richard | 1652628202916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c70f7cabb8dc", "prob": 0.64, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.2, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.8, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3wzWq1RVUyKrhYQIoliJ", "createdTime": 1652626961747, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdated... | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540938}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1691182023196}] | ["culture-default", "tv"] | 1652628201486 | False | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09368538394852653 | 9opi2LhZ05B6hfqlavMA | {"NO": 335.0924689991565, "YES": 3315.153814539819} | 0 | will-tether-depeg-before-july | 4731.640156106623 | Will Tether depeg before July? | 1656647940000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.82033375852422 | True | play | NO | public | 1652628833816 | SG | Resolves YES if the stablecoin Tether ($USDT) falls below $0.90 any time before July 1st, 2022 according to the price reported by CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.380199237948286, "platformFee": 1.2584000643607443, "liquidityFee": 7.5504003861644655} | 0 | 1656684667581 | 408.55040038616437 | SG | 1656637596755 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 1656637595404 | 1656033660573 | 0.010340455233294752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15WentzihFMPRuZsHuPT | what-will-manifold-call-our-charity | 878.2129079994909 | What will Manifold call our charity equity/NFT platform? | 1653278340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.673597077058557 | True | play | ea8b2734adf7 | public | 1652633418637 | Austin | Project overview: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charity-Equity-ManiFT-2bc1c7a411b9460b9b7a5707f3667db8
My brainstorming on names: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Names-for-Charity-Equity-b7e4015405784af9a39b3d8e80c811dc
See also: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-implement-an-mvp-of-charity | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.720000000000001, "platformFee": 1.4300000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658607218351 | 780.0000000000002 | Austin | 1653943261691 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "547c74e314a0", "prob": 0.014523344880134492, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.13463668385090577, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.135726649258826, "textFts": "", "contractId": "15WentzihFMPRuZsHuPT", "createdTime": 1652633418932, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 1653255752786 | 1653943260965 | {"ea8b2734adf7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.24418848673431295 | 8fQ04qNeikKNmXltVkLs | {"NO": 84.67029519607233, "YES": 1103.996714932175} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-hire-a-fullti | 1574.7691687929816 | Will Manifold Markets hire a full-time Head of Growth by the end of the year? | 1672531140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.308188194179846 | True | play | NO | public | 1652636231627 | Manifold | See the relevant job posting: https://mni.fo/jobs | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.891425737918391, "platformFee": 0.3966113026316074, "liquidityFee": 2.3796678157896443} | 0 | 1672605999550 | 242.37966781578962 | Manifold | 1672530645256 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529551392}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849878}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.65 | 1672530645141 | 1652641800209 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8664593194070148 | xMpQzsG5fEPwf6J4G6sg | {"NO": 1307.5379201298501, "YES": 908.489385559171} | 0.9032725406377681 | will-organ-transplant-in-humans-usi | 419.560747659857 | Will organ transplant in humans using modified animal organs or chimeras be successful by 2030? | 1893455940000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.015456820267703 | False | basic | public | 1652636503004 | Manifold | For it to be successful for the purpose of this question the graft has to not be acutely rejected or have issues causing it to fail for at least 6 months following surgery.
See this article for some insight: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6861770/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003975119628238821} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8990328786400252, "platformFee": 0.20677240301451877, "liquidityFee": 1.2406344180871127} | 0 | 1000 | Manifold | 1718715149879 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536569}] | ["science-default"] | 0.41 | 1718715146580 | 1685327056431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5656204654162752 | j3m4OIg0opRrt6C9KOUw | {"NO": 61.557186846507804, "YES": 154.24648854422946} | 1 | will-i-take-a-dose-of-saxenda-on-th | 125.46027476391787 | Will I take a dose of Saxenda on the day of market close? | 1652978620948 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8563980304981076 | True | play | YES | public | 1652640373733 | Rai | I've been taking it for about half a year. Today (May 15), I ran out of the pens I brought to US, so now in order to do Saxenda in the future I need to get a refill from the US healthcare system. I've done an online doctor visit and pharmacy seems to have gotten prior authorization from my insurance to send me refills.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7594201511160916, "platformFee": 0.293236691852682, "liquidityFee": 1.7594201511160916} | 0 | 1652978620948 | 101.75942015111609 | agentydragon | 1652978611081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 1652829808747 | 1652978607116 | 0.34195804293693677 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.9747053855085636 | zK5SpUZDaGnFuX8hwH90 | {"NO": 78.98661569835768, "YES": 105.71430631865302} | 1 | will-the-boston-celtics-beat-the-mi | 529.036091319159 | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Miami Heat in the 2022 NBA Playoffs? | 1653880713478 | G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.49264816635181 | True | play | YES | public | 1652653193905 | Sam Harsimony | Resolves to YES if NBA.com reports that the Boston Celtics beat the Miami Heat in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.261580690160918, "platformFee": 0.710263448360153, "liquidityFee": 4.261580690160918} | 0 | 1653880713478 | 104.26158069016091 | SamHarsimony | 1653880654892 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHG2tIPogQSAicyVVtqTDp_FBGj2gT-oxGk9Er=s96-c | 9 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409893}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181994599}] | ["sports-default", "basketball"] | 0.99 | 1653880654644 | False | 0.9616432071478347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7956410069681126 | r7bVXiT8lsJV8nbEC7X0 | {"NO": 79589.90679880277, "YES": 372.9592074721134} | 1 | will-there-be-a-new-trilliondollar | 107688.46535125944 | Will there be a new trillion-dollar company before 2025? | 1686447468880 | TGeqnSwTU5NDdaBwhI1HBXtDF5m2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | -0.2667718410881994 | True | basic | YES | public | 1652657868108 | Wilf | Currently Wikipedia lists 7: PetroChina, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Will there be a new one by the end of 2024? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.474683079890266, "platformFee": 0.5953630898533713, "liquidityFee": 3.5721785391202276} | 0 | 1686447468880 | 1503.5721785391202 | wilf | 1686447479491 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwX9_z1vXQhBmwcpgQZTA2JiNdbW8SzTMGCEY58PA=s96-c | 5 | 89 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576122}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.15388573251173934 | 0.25 | 1686434160577 | 1686447475151 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pfqOytWr0WT2o5kuRSbX | who-will-win-the-2022-nobel-prize-i-5d3746e6a9c3 | 200.24197021039433 | Who will win the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics? | 1664794740000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.859931742347785 | True | play | 11c6f46356ff | public | 1652659092930 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves in the same proportion as the prize share.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 13, 11:51am: This market was created before it was possible to bid on \"None\", and so it has a different catch-all answer, \"S... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20967880841577313, "platformFee": 0.05241970210394328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664884822375 | 740 | NcyRocks | 1664884748689 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b11381c5a9b5", "prob": 0.30947345335931903, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.495082506402145, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.03668885070099, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pfqOytWr0WT2o5kuRSbX", "createdTime": 1652659092991, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421449}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534317}, {"name": "Nobel Prizes", "slug": "academic-awards", "groupId": "gF0c1fO8ozQYyctfQ5cT", "createdTi... | ["academic-awards", "science-default", "world-default"] | 1664762869707 | 1664884743621 | {"11c6f46356ff": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2739376719033611 | xX42sg5GidnIqjlzipzo | {"NO": 85.17750681115866, "YES": 887.4021197853114} | 0 | will-us-nominal-gdp-growth-exceed-1 | 934.7666043033422 | Will US nominal GDP growth exceed 10% in 2022? | 1674712740000 | rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9819352793651963 | True | play | NO | public | 1652660087592 | Wilson Kime | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf). Scott Sumner has advoca... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.118942241652923, "platformFee": 0.8010063355319151, "liquidityFee": 4.806038013191491} | 0 | 1674755738449 | 184.80603801319148 | wilsonkime | 1674668850329 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577960}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1674668850152 | 1674668846551 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26441114520176345 | rjwdqu18mRVie6dMT9uT | {"NO": 968.3435574753355, "YES": 1085.4586690300675} | 0.24280961622961994 | will-there-be-a-massproduced-revers | 364.9875963300762 | Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032? | 1956549540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580125690483097 | False | basic | public | 1652660771151 | Bolton Bailey | Reversible computing (see links below), is a way of making a computer more energy efficient by making circuits inside "reversible" in that they avoid losing entropy to their environment. Extrapolating trends, [3] the current rate of efficiency improvements will become unsustainable by around 2030.
This market resolve... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8924597533992039, "platformFee": 0.06401172784557692, "liquidityFee": 0.3840703670734615} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1717499014113 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454755}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.32 | 1717499010976 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5095068454427956 | N998m9BWfwDqwtzmkxTi | {"NO": 149.23396048108827, "YES": 132.05316336694978} | 1 | will-marco-rubio-win-miamidade-coun | 117.79292842171782 | Will Marco Rubio win Miami-Dade county in the general election in 2022? | 1666497540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1559918236317417 | True | play | YES | public | 1652661327831 | Enopoletus Harding | He lost it by 11 points in his previous Senate race; can he win it in a Biden midterm? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14268727705112957, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854932, "liquidityFee": 0.14268727705112957} | 0 | 1669848985479 | 140.14268727705112 | EnopoletusHarding | 1666474862788 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483723}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1666474861344 | 0.5399999999999988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10051518295598115 | eTSlS8xTIah9u9mYEUIL | {"NO": 99.86669639912172, "YES": 110.92661085560289} | 0 | will-apple-acquire-canoo-by-the-end | 28.995761061567315 | Will Apple acquire Canoo by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | ffsmNhyxj7V3bmak08EeGoFGWAZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.617037740952577 | True | play | NO | public | 1652661558529 | Gopher | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4657684969787939, "platformFee": 0.07762808282979898, "liquidityFee": 0.4657684969787939} | 0 | 1679029659750 | 100.4657684969788 | Gopher | 1664399716666 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451396}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893884}] | ["technology-default", "please-resolve"] | 0.1 | 1664399716579 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10531234562176128 | gvkmgQxDPetjWKovT7hU | {"NO": 921.8021057933913, "YES": 1340.6878067345754} | 0.07487204288370324 | will-amazon-spin-off-aws-by-the-end | 2758.9497295614815 | Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.192618295337255 | False | basic | public | 1652665277129 | Gigacasting | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.381826802406513, "platformFee": 0.5081672839920865, "liquidityFee": 3.049003703952519} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1685048055816 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452145}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1661565744734}] | ["technology-default", "global-macro"] | 0.5 | 1685048055656 | 1661650202372 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sVPrl9UtXw7YeAK8snp8 | who-will-win-holey-moley-fore-ever | 165 | Who will win Holey Moley: Fore Ever? | 1657670400000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.879110231567943 | True | play | 9ee2b0da53f1 | public | 1652666004452 | Eric | See https://abc.com/shows/holey-moley
The fourth season of Holey Moley is being aired now. Who will win this year's prize in the end?
Trading on this market closes when the final episode begins airing in the US East Coast and will resolve once we know who the winner is.
Close date updated to 2022-06-21 5:00 pm
Clos... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.5600000000000005, "platformFee": 1.6400000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657684731403 | 520 | theincredibleholk | 1657648808017 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4191d10dd4bf", "prob": 0.3673094582185491, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.389401440131035, "userId": "QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.565743980625705, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sVPrl9UtXw7YeAK8snp8", "createdTime": 1652666004505, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408691}] | ["sports-default"] | 1657648806630 | 1655871487781 | {"9ee2b0da53f1": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4392247809895205 | 7w9C0570LteGtT0QGPmb | {"NO": 5.5021371297037405, "YES": 6980.071996506441} | 0 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-89ee193af269 | 9292 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $775 on May 16, 2022? | 1652727600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6278808678917684 | True | play | NO | public | 1652668114929 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
T... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.97022437860137, "platformFee": 2.828370729766895, "liquidityFee": 16.97022437860137} | 0 | 1652732928964 | 116.97022437860134 | Predictor | 1652727506645 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424318}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565284}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652727506444 | 0.0006170231758048814 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4756871559158385 | ERTaui0plhNUtOAp5zBe | {"NO": 36.9023127698659, "YES": 471.13000200371727} | 0 | will-the-dallas-mavericks-beat-the | 689.5388970407283 | Will the Dallas Mavericks beat the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 Western Conference Finals? | 1653289140000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.123113544895135 | True | play | NO | public | 1652677006469 | Richard | The market closes after Game 3 of the series. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.076343633315444, "platformFee": 2.012723938885908, "liquidityFee": 12.076343633315444} | 0 | 1653621514904 | 112.07634363331545 | Richard | 1653286869360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398907}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1653286868087 | 0.06634813526316433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45957985954949643 | HIVwcKK5YCaVvFFLDP73 | {"NO": 209.58062919504948, "YES": 58.3522374184206} | 0 | will-i-still-be-on-the-contract-for | 330 | Will I still be on the contract for my old apartment's internet 1 month from now? | 1653289140000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6961518368034882 | True | play | NO | public | 1652678461004 | Rai | I've moved out of Switzerland, to SF. The internet in my old apartment is still on me and it's been annoying trying to get them to transfer it to my ex-roommate. The company is Yallo. Apparently the contract can't be transferred - I need to cancel it, and my flatmate needs to start a new contract.
This market resolves... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.23468704778338, "platformFee": 1.3724478412972299, "liquidityFee": 8.23468704778338} | 0 | 1653463593408 | 108.23468704778338 | agentydragon | 1653463670908 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1653284297822 | 1653463667039 | 0.7533531729916396 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013999758477046067 | 3F6rkc15NnmYlrPwlWf6 | {"NO": 112.99993668266589, "YES": 0.0013164132429292774} | 1 | httpsmanifoldmarketsundoxhttpsmainf | 13 | https://manifold.markets/Undox/https-mainfold-markets-undox-https- | 1652678866211 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585280964326047 | True | play | YES | public | 1652678853367 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0003799040045955193, "platformFee": 6.331733409925322e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.0003799040045955193} | 0 | 1652678866211 | 100.00037990400459 | Undox | 1652678863344 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652678861909 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4983392280931056 | 4gYBxPvx1ZoAkHTWASjf | {"NO": 226.230000883646, "YES": 46.029468410013365} | 0.83 | how-will-ny-housing-prices-change-o | 215.71232801750986 | How will NY housing prices change over the next month? | 1662042485072 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6346061607521056 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652678887600 | Jack | I'm likely to buy a home in NY in the near future, and would like to forecast the likely near-term trend in the housing market.
Resolution: Resolves according to data from the Case-Shiller New York Home Price Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYXRSA. The most recent values are 255.25 for Jan 2022 and 258.37 fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0304836562180912, "platformFee": 0.19296447990540527, "liquidityFee": 1.1577868794324315} | 0 | 1662042485072 | 101.15778687943242 | jack | 1662042431556 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564427}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769998}] | ["economics-default", "housing-markets"] | 0.5 | 1662042430140 | 1662042415046 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2706906188991211 | KEH8jwVU8d0Lxoth9fQM | {"NO": 93.90233908241628, "YES": 138.15053245250155} | 0 | will-i-grok-variational-autoencoder | 114.15473360644816 | Will I grok variational autoencoders in 2 weeks? | 1653854340000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.425379069571611 | True | play | NO | public | 1652679655155 | Rai | This market resolves to YES if on day of market close I understand variational autoencoders "deeply enough". That standard is basically "given a whiteboard I could explain to you all the important parts without reference material, and won't have any known big holes in my understanding".
I started working at OpenAI rec... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1240141261387904, "platformFee": 0.35400235435646504, "liquidityFee": 2.1240141261387904} | 0 | 1653874618089 | 102.1240141261388 | agentydragon | 1653833977288 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1653833975964 | 1653590020860 | 0.20145744348994932 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5089218577980221 | ceoo5wJXRjlAVFEEg3mF | {"NO": 310.05652383840146, "YES": 40.681598045898696} | 0 | will-my-score-on-the-oxford-happine | 422.8198144045511 | Will my score on the Oxford Happiness Questionnaire be higher in a month? | 1655438340000 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0758089024212945 | True | play | NO | public | 1652690797330 | Emmy | I scored a 4.14, taken from here: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/nov/03/take-the-oxford-happiness-questionnaire
I haven't taken it in the past but I'm fairly confident it was lower a month ago. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.294439805548962, "platformFee": 0.8636886649673332, "liquidityFee": 5.182131989804} | 0 | 1656394935456 | 105.18213198980399 | emmy | 1656394921484 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655406006782 | 1656394919629 | 0.8876212213231109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09851961858125591 | k4ZS8LzNsnqATj7utpiu | {"NO": 119.26511713320376, "YES": 130.2930749602084} | 0.0909392663920984 | will-denmark-reinstate-any-covidrel | 34.00000000000006 | Will Denmark reinstate any COVID-related entry requirements before 2025? | 1735689600000 | FebmYaXJmudUl8fwK56RbYQJG2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652695090270 | Eigil Rischel | On the 2022-03-28, Denmark removed all of the COVID-related entry restrictions*.
Before that, throughout the pandemic, various restrictions had been in effect, requiring some combination of proof of vaccination, proof of negative COVID test taken within a few days of traveling, taking a test upon entry and isolating in... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.15836304689931166, "platformFee": 0.026393841149885276, "liquidityFee": 0.15836304689931166} | 0 | 120.15836304689931 | EigilRischel | 1682325337162 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdWPMyVSqzB9j_mVrYOlsn56YOKUzkKx8onJkh=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420387}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}] | ["world-default", "medicine"] | 0.1 | 1682325336981 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39544272287590215 | HH8GOabO7X96pZt8DUlu | {"NO": 972.8799938605931, "YES": 1651.6032054561315} | 1 | will-hodlnaut-default-in-2022 | 599.3171185327069 | Will Hodlnaut default in 2022? | 1660069768591 | Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3446583093463118 | True | basic | YES | public | 1652700641956 | Infohazard Assessor | Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk
Hodlnaut https://www.hodlnaut.com/ pays interest on deposits of BTC, ETH, and several stablecoins, which they loan to other entities. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.24725245178689, "platformFee": 0.17047099046548425, "liquidityFee": 1.0228259427929054} | 0 | 1660069768591 | 1201.022825942793 | metacontrarian | 1660089690428 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1660069656898 | 1660089688899 | 0.2707428051235046 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12273935978207239 | GbEa8bedq2qMrrQiJaXl | {"NO": 897.4283153069059, "YES": 1554.511039032513} | 0.07473551945506234 | will-elon-musks-next-startup-involv | 2980.2886808392254 | Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing? | 1893560340000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.094511470431765 | False | basic | public | 1652703471238 | Peter Berggren | I have a hunch that Eliezer Yudkowsky is writing Elon Musk's playbook for innovation through his "dath ilan" posts. So far, Elon Musk has done work on electric vehicles, autonomous cars, and underground tunnel boring, all mentioned in the original "dath ilan" post. Musk has also founded OpenAI based on a view of AI ris... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.375049446757153, "platformFee": 0.3958415744595256, "liquidityFee": 2.375049446757153} | 0 | 1000 | PeterBerggren | 1713368970100 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ"}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "housing-markets"] | 0.5 | 1713368966852 | 1683904787118 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01632408419419578 | cAbct9T7GwjOE4as8Ke5 | {"NO": 144, "YES": 1.3159251466277053e-13} | 1 | test-256 | 44 | test 256 | 1652707133638 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59593101457845 | True | play | YES | public | 1652707119808 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14, "platformFee": 8.597567102697212e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14} | 0 | 1652707133638 | 100.00000000000006 | Electricitypipe | 1652707130054 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652707128274 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pb981DfwmGgN7dwxWsLr | what-will-my-diet-look-like-over-th | 498.8353698343577 | What will my diet look like over the next year? | 1684900740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.701580169767981 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652710255194 | Austin | I'm currently eating a pescatarian diet, but could be persuaded to go down to vegan or up to "beefatarian". I'd say I'm primarily interested in productivity, followed by animal suffering, followed by longevity, with climate a distant 4th.
(of course, taste and cost are factors too!)
May 16, 10:12am: Inspired by https... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.19341479337430884, "platformFee": 0.04835369834357721, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686160873448 | 820.0000000000002 | Austin | 1686165168027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "74ad40b25549", "prob": 0.03268068821736329, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.45871026866839, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.57741607045432, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pb981DfwmGgN7dwxWsLr", "createdTime": 1652710255377, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 3 | 12 | [] | [] | 1684896502317 | 1686165164172 | {"5ad4d725e94d": 35, "90df6d2bcaf3": 65} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5894743040942286 | cDYZlVvlHmgckc0JBS5R | {"NO": 157.50461077139565, "YES": 162.83497228499115} | 1 | will-my-right-knee-heal-without-sur | 55.52262663509727 | Will my right knee heal without surgery? | 1672462740000 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0002173037764788 | True | play | YES | public | 1652711709676 | Ray Doraisamy | On April 27, 2022, I attempted a double-leg takedown in wrestling that slammed my right knee onto the mat with a force that resulted in the kind of euphoria (a 'floaty' feeling) and jittery extremities that typically accompanies traumatic injury. Palpation after the sparring session showed that the site (medial, betwe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3576033196965368, "platformFee": 0.059600553282756145, "liquidityFee": 0.3576033196965368} | 0 | 1672464158188 | 160.35760331969652 | RayDoraisamy | 1672464147780 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.6 | 1672421527725 | 1672464142963 | 0.58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3889284181812583 | QQV4rxjBBuPGVbEHZhJ8 | {"NO": 48.843103050050175, "YES": 417.88813576478833} | 0 | will-the-noahpinion-article-on-gree | 506.91852137888475 | Will the Noahpinion article on greedflation (linked) reach 100 hearts? | 1653346740000 | KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.216096245012237 | True | play | NO | public | 1652712445739 | nic | Will this article:
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/greedflation-gouging-and-price-controls
reach 100 hearts by the time of Market close? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.299380940874235, "platformFee": 1.0498968234790393, "liquidityFee": 6.299380940874235} | 0 | 1653391811112 | 106.29938094087423 | nic_kup | 1653344233999 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544026}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.39 | 1653344232572 | 0.06924021486003462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7268451229469521 | f3SkSsjJwFG4kmt6gLHa | {"NO": 547.5534854267564, "YES": 141.7783995417472} | 1 | will-i-do-five-or-more-pomodoros-of | 348 | Will I do five or more pomodoros of work today? | 1652738625261 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.184822736139138 | True | play | YES | public | 1652718722237 | Charlie | This market resolves to YES if at the end of the day I have recorded five pomodoros of work.
Last ten work days:
pomodoro goal/pomodoros completed
4/4 (most recent)
3/7
6/6
5/12
11/21
16/16
12/12
8/8
6/6
5/5 (least recent) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.679087439461433, "platformFee": 0.4465145732435722, "liquidityFee": 2.679087439461433} | 0 | 1652738625261 | 202.67908743946143 | Charlie | 1652739056672 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1664814192950}] | ["charlies-hack-days"] | 0.7 | 1652737804553 | 1652739054989 | 0.9113207783699111 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05966752176755655 | J9AxuledYeSQrBf5rJdm | {"NO": 316.2930033456584, "YES": 867.5276732603777} | 0 | will-russia-conduct-significant-mil | 1148.298180728744 | Will Russia conduct significant military operations against Sweden or Finland before 2024? | 1704085140000 | oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.720204677038408 | True | play | NO | public | 1652720156190 | Nick Hansen | This market resolves to yes if more than ten Swedish or Finnish deaths occur due to military action by Russia prior to 1/1/2024. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.45403034726914165, "platformFee": 0.07567172454485695, "liquidityFee": 0.45403034726914165} | 0 | 1704087489088 | 340.45403034726917 | NickHansen | 1704087489439 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJMhAHO6lUyyX5TOGoPPZjylGQ3-DLNgmXUxS0Q_4=s96-c | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "groupId": "jx3BNdPVFyaq7blARtkJ", "createdTime": 1669120174897}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227193}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug... | ["sweden", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.05 | 1703890583842 | False | 0.02 | oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23270880491392926 | gX9WOqJqvtaFAg5bwyHW | {"NO": 146.08495408035202, "YES": 3595.6729569679997} | 0 | will-tesla-tsla-stock-end-the-year | 9735.46223001961 | Will Tesla (TSLA) stock end the year at or above $700/share? | 1672376340000 | wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.276699768344483 | True | play | NO | public | 1652721071444 | Trent Yazzo | This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock (TSLA) are trading with a price equal to or greater than $700 / per share at 4:00 PM EST (the close of regular market trading hours) on December 30, 2022 (a Friday and the final day of trading for 2022.) Betting closes the day before on December 29, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.901024073940796, "platformFee": 3.116317972917331, "liquidityFee": 18.69790783750399} | 0 | 1672601979826 | 495.9920412376855 | kazoo | 1710451939019 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 43 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm"}] | ["economics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1672367331047 | 1669047128207 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47034835956556176 | W3BwHdgvuv03XO3aasPH | {"NO": 42.36494119391156, "YES": 469.6513060811849} | 0 | will-alex-power-have-a-conversation | 1463.4475582445325 | Will Alex Power have a conversation with Elon Musk by the end of July 2022? | 1654059540000 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.941422342996932 | True | play | NO | public | 1652721811647 | Alex Power | I am both hopeful and concerned that I might need to serve as negotiator in this Elon Musk/Twitter drama. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.845931150080965, "platformFee": 2.640988525013494, "liquidityFee": 15.845931150080965} | 0 | 1654573632702 | 115.84593115008096 | AlexPower | 1653870890753 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449663}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181977397}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1653870889606 | 1652739365383 | False | 0.07416420616567103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 7UofGDkabNRB7lPg9uNE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-a-startup-in-a-programming-lan | 0 | Will a startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raise $10M by 2035? | 1652727044449 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652726723511 | Quinn | Resolves to `yes` if by Jan 1st 2030:
1. A startup is building a product in programming language X ("PLX")
2. PLX _cites_ a paper or book associated with the HoTT movement in its whitepaper or otherwise in its documentation.
2.1. Designers or contributors of/to PLX verbally/twitterly claiming that they're influenced... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652727044449 | 100 | Quinn | 1652727061162 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444247}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1691181955822}] | ["technology-default", "startups"] | 0.5 | 1652727059671 | False | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3220554937835003 | PD3VHmuu9G1fPwEPI1Lk | {"NO": 990.8732935377662, "YES": 998.7239736803959} | 0.32033486369288783 | a-startup-in-a-programming-language | 143.30698209661858 | A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030 | 1893560340000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.569066739207422 | False | basic | public | 1652727457868 | Quinn | Resolves to `yes` if by Jan 1st 2030:
1. A startup is building a product in programming language X ("PLX")
2. PLX _cites_ a paper or book associated with the HoTT movement in its whitepaper or otherwise in its documentation.
2.1. Designers or contributors of/to PLX verbally/twitterly claiming that they're influenced... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2791752236992835, "platformFee": 0.14964374548977047, "liquidityFee": 0.8978624729386228} | 0 | 1000 | Quinn | 1717344188179 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447744}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1691181936538}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88e... | ["technology-default", "programming", "startups"] | 0.5 | 1717344185007 | 1652820725114 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xLcfJUgNplmYtVSDUdLD | who-will-win-the-storybook-brawl-wo | 349.59217616383944 | Who will win the Storybook Brawl Worlds Championship? | 1670129940000 | toQNa8qLVHTUiGEb6sUQvYkXBBi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.741580802328178 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652727464242 | Ralph Erickson | SBB | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675975585517 | 359.99999999999994 | RalphErickson | 1670128574594 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJAmWS1FtFAFDhIIt188QnTpU9uCL1VVSwtvAG3A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4954071ff915", "prob": 0.0728852583048114, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.985197297174334, "userId": "toQNa8qLVHTUiGEb6sUQvYkXBBi2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.25209791651752, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xLcfJUgNplmYtVSDUdLD", "createdTime": 1652727464303, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 14 | 5 | 1670128574425 | 1652751712397 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.551847391742446 | nBW4ZT50JRHNk7e1HK0e | {"NO": 1010.3818287614014, "YES": 993.7277594245173} | 0.5559541557840879 | will-my-battery-redqueening-strateg | 172.83166020256428 | Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire? | 1893571140000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.670747966173662 | False | basic | public | 1652728606334 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a new 2021 Macbook pro -- the kind that has magsafe again as well as allowing charging via USB-C. I kind of want to optimize battery health but don't want to think about it too much. Also I almost always use it at my desk and never leave the... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0639047193774394, "platformFee": 0.50457601540343, "liquidityFee": 1.8711944447688111} | 0 | 1000 | dreev | 1719248417154 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453859}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1714815438394 | 1719248415304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.044537025751883653 | pRUsGdp3Va6Ufz5Tcmlz | {"NO": 134.47017204987048, "YES": 517.4143950050702} | 0 | will-eurovision-2023-be-held-in-ukr | 1169.5282616621919 | Will Eurovision 2023 be held in Ukraine? | 1684024361855 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.891614328842698 | True | play | NO | public | 1652728880894 | Mike Blume | Ukraine won Eurovision 2022. Traditionally, Eurovision is hosted each year by the country which won it the previous year. Ukrainian president Zelenskyy has stated publicly that Ukraine will host Eurovision in 2023. Resolves yes if Ukraine is the primary host country for Eurovision 2023.
May 16, 12:23pm: This question ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3179553703675015, "platformFee": 0.5270743033466752, "liquidityFee": 3.1624458200800514} | 0 | 1684024361855 | 243.16244582008008 | MichaelBlume | 1684018724268 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 1 | 20 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Eurovision 2023", "slug": "eurovision-2023", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "FLXhwWniy8oUhEmZLnGE", "createdTime": 1679945173730}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225271}] | ["eurovision-2023", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.8 | 1684018724159 | 1684017293096 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.039851198862865374 | 8hGU1NZodGDT4SX5jIlG | {"NO": 503.80674416406754, "YES": 2398.125381689627} | 0 | will-aliens-visit-this-year | 2874.880430875986 | Will aliens visit this year | 1672462740000 | toQNa8qLVHTUiGEb6sUQvYkXBBi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.366298301316245 | True | play | NO | public | 1652729315180 | Ralph Erickson | Aliens meaning green mars creatures | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.680188496674883, "platformFee": 0.757546549563502, "liquidityFee": 4.545279297381012} | 0 | 1689722039758 | 534.545279297381 | RalphErickson | 1689722045203 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJAmWS1FtFAFDhIIt188QnTpU9uCL1VVSwtvAG3A=s96-c | 33 | 0 | 40 | 33 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523748}, {"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373330853}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId... | ["science-default", "aliens", "please-resolve"] | 0.05 | 1671976225948 | 1689722043008 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8216591334684671 | IhnSE9yiGCcmXxg2SSf7 | {"NO": 5120.996325566304, "YES": 56.829007150546715} | 1 | will-keltham-uncover-the-conspiracy | 5608.764678439872 | Will Keltham uncover the Conspiracy before they can turn him into a statue for a year? | 1653159494565 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.956579169988996 | True | play | YES | public | 1652738577183 | Tetra | https://glowfic.com/replies/1810211#reply-1810211 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.69049577621032, "platformFee": 2.1150826293683873, "liquidityFee": 12.69049577621032} | 0 | 1653159494565 | 112.69049577621034 | Tetraspace | 1653159486645 | 0 | 15 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391863}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542825}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 0.8 | 1653159484672 | 1652893347192 | 0.9858269011404481 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1794083209273774 | XDRKC6YVVq7FYn1Zy6z0 | {"NO": 81.28280425316336, "YES": 1366.1795229728466} | 0 | will-a-member-of-the-manifold-team | 1878.4080744663934 | Will a member of the Manifold team visit me in Ohio within 6 months? | 1669265940000 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.557026201657369 | True | play | NO | public | 1652746139292 | Emmy | I have a room available in my relatively spacious apartment, plus a home office built for ~3 people. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5250031885993973, "platformFee": 0.26228312193576014, "liquidityFee": 1.5736987316145608} | 0 | 1669312170773 | 181.57369873161454 | emmy | 1669265501586 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.5 | 1669265501430 | 1652797560867 | 0.01284084364070171 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48700217843060506 | Y1EnGt7g8DQZP1RQ3C11 | {"NO": 45.48808543145619, "YES": 318.33700332601853} | 0 | will-my-tweet-asking-about-the-hist | 607.3919850251884 | Will my tweet asking about the history of async and await in Rust get 1,000 impressions? | 1653375540000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.919858733698242 | True | play | NO | public | 1652746493329 | Eric | The tweet in question: https://twitter.com/theinedibleholk/status/1526354293879582721
I will decide this based on the impression count that shows up in Twitter Analytics. Resolves as YES once the tweet clears 1000 impressions, or as NO if it has not hit 1000 impressions within the next week.
May 16, 6:34pm: In case y... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.693125920458938, "platformFee": 1.4488543200764896, "liquidityFee": 8.693125920458938} | 0 | 1653402181183 | 108.69312592045894 | theincredibleholk | 1653402214368 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450150}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1653375167169 | 1653402209656 | 0.1194484946997685 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5292077494425308 | TwYqeJZFPXNYniw2sfWb | {"NO": 76.96325800144929, "YES": 129.8735621110611} | 0 | will-the-combined-2022-mlb-regular | 30 | Will the combined 2022 MLB regular season wins of the New York teams - Yankees and Mets exceed the combined total of the Los Angeles teams - Angels and Dodgers? | 1654055940000 | XskFCC4vEqdFT0SQzAk5yYgyOzo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7861029387314398 | True | play | NO | public | 1652746833072 | Todd Whitestone | This market resolves at the conclusion of the MLB season or as soon as one pair of teams has more wins than the trailing team can accumulate over the rest of the season | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7586273336336911, "platformFee": 0.12643788893894853, "liquidityFee": 0.7586273336336911} | 0 | 1701805725056 | 100.7586273336337 | ToddWhitestone | 1701545312322 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx46caIE-_ArR6C16N6svdbNFkj_B0ud0mpx-tV=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403038}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.53 | 1654016917494 | 1701545311789 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2021121929753648 | Z4s045UazaPWaPcuP5Av | {"NO": 70.98833554995161, "YES": 497.49123812475324} | 0 | will-i-work-for-manifold-markets | 542.5052205343843 | Will I work for Manifold Markets? | 1656371566722 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.579022470455808 | True | play | NO | public | 1652747414577 | Undox | Resolves YES if I have a job offer, any role, and start date by market close (start date might be after the market close though and that is still YES). Job has to be ongoing, not a single contract. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.622604413542271, "platformFee": 0.4365984459446727, "liquidityFee": 2.619590675668036} | 0 | 1656371566722 | 102.61959067566802 | Undox | 1656371559177 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.2 | 1656371557837 | 1655850005875 | 0.09706378497398402 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33367268215310436 | oH2X8SQXctwWSufjGFKd | {"NO": 54.59348167505293, "YES": 564.1448281512696} | 0 | will-i-create-a-post-on-the-ea-foru | 726.9931554080925 | Will I create a post on the EA forums in the next month? | 1655438340000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3643861835385342 | True | play | NO | public | 1652747839572 | James | I've never posted before, but it sounds fun. Probably I would write about how libertarianism or decentralization could contribute to EA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.92841411826656, "platformFee": 1.5875839826920706, "liquidityFee": 9.525503896152424} | 0 | 1655441497433 | 109.52550389615243 | JamesGrugett | 1655430121962 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1655430121820 | 1655360198118 | 0.046220150733739945 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | Nb6q8MZz0JlJee8S2EUF | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-89d2fe3487a8 | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652748671909 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1652748665613 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1652748671909 | 100.08131378184248 | unit_24601 | 1652748670773 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652748668792 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | Y9PJm9up7OrIqJPfuaoC | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-77813b9d08b6 | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652748690678 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1652748684898 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1652748690678 | 100.08131378184248 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1652748687921 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652748687788 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | 54EuMyl75qrJCkSTiyjb | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-e00432c5906c | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652748711624 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1652748701477 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1652748711624 | 100.08131378184248 | SayJarva | 1652748704631 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652748704498 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28699612857328916 | pQrYrGOMal9jTNzxshuU | {"NO": 904.6373469822519, "YES": 1036.375255752241} | 0.2600000000000002 | will-elon-musks-next-startup-involv-41f809beb974 | 478.51139947176256 | Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth? | 1893560340000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.65219654665344 | False | basic | public | 1652749249404 | Peter Berggren | This is a continuation of my earlier question: I speculate that Elon Musk is drawing ideas from the work of Eliezer Yudkowsky, and that at least two of his ideas (self-driving functionality for electric cars and underground tunnel-boring) could have been inspired by the "dath ilan" series of posts.
This market resolv... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6019645141791456, "platformFee": 0.26699408569652433, "liquidityFee": 1.6019645141791456} | 0 | 1000 | PeterBerggren | 1710451951205 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.9 | 1701652565004 | 1654125198323 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5111041468599643 | nyvfVKqqxW84ZMDRhoFH | {"NO": 257.871014447528, "YES": 52.419797207804706} | 1 | was-the-prior-m-logo-better-than-th | 437.229953806195 | Was the prior M$ logo better than the current squiggly m? | 1653545792463 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8243799795750215 | True | play | YES | public | 1652749264493 | Gigacasting | Resolved based on consistent plurality (>70%/<30% of the vote) maintained for majority of multi-day period. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.129829257156872, "platformFee": 1.188304876192812, "liquidityFee": 7.129829257156872} | 0 | 1653545792463 | 107.12982925715684 | Gigacasting | 1653503305532 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653503304173 | 1653318227697 | 0.8372079788145997 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17329333499099378 | 3wmEcHQvmghpPK8dxL0b | {"NO": 82.81824318096761, "YES": 406.241973785181} | 0 | will-at-least-100-different-users-c | 554.9923901750146 | Will at least 100 different users comment on this question by July 1, 2022? | 1656745140000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.835581436319478 | True | play | NO | public | 1652751322902 | Richard | May 16, 6:38pm: Replies to comments will be counted as comments. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.563483657838004, "platformFee": 0.7619589276377657, "liquidityFee": 4.571753565826594} | 0 | 1680900738200 | 104.5717535658266 | Richard | 1656712821472 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974026}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.17 | 1656712821338 | 1656682077991 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2154701288487316 | KPcc3I6WyRnF32hQJXUd | {"NO": 93.93935866856614, "YES": 193.5697964033596} | 0 | will-someone-replace-the-redgreen-b | 261.1197183086155 | Will someone replace the red/green bars with a gradient? | 1653364740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.895115425088242 | True | play | NO | public | 1652751628944 | Austin | Users have pointed out that the the red/green bars switch very abruptly from red to green at 50%. We could show a gradient of colors instead, so 0% to 50% to 100% maps from e.g. Red to Yellow to Green, or Red to Gray to Green.
Resolves to YES if there's a gradient representing the percentage anywhere on the card view ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.160408050344998, "platformFee": 0.8600680083908331, "liquidityFee": 5.160408050344998} | 0 | 1653369503973 | 105.160408050345 | Austin | 1653361333345 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1653361332076 | 1653328978009 | 0.11761093494342059 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5064593193468178 | gdLapRbtPY0FdS7cxKtD | {"NO": 116.53928295099611, "YES": 120.93040981412433} | 1 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-1e4658a01af2 | 752 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $750 on May 17, 2022? | 1652814000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.444323154727354 | True | play | YES | public | 1652753641278 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.475805319337137, "platformFee": 1.5793008865561895, "liquidityFee": 9.475805319337137} | 0 | 1652822378945 | 109.47580531933714 | Predictor | 1652778461274 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425765}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573266}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652778459999 | 0.49721299614056846 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1458455745535957 | y2iHaoP3BeEfQAKujyEW | {"NO": 153.93026170737437, "YES": 195.70320745277718} | 0 | will-i-learn-mandarin-by-the-end-of | 366.8025655372438 | Will I learn Mandarin by the end of the year? | 1671771540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9153580860883954 | True | play | NO | public | 1652758685678 | Enopoletus Harding | This market resolves to Yes if I learn Mandarin by the end of the year. It resolves to No if I do not.
I studied it throughout 2021, but did not learn it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.441502585513471, "platformFee": 0.07358376425224518, "liquidityFee": 0.441502585513471} | 0 | 1671818484558 | 160.44150258551346 | EnopoletusHarding | 1671768721432 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.18 | 1671768721224 | 1656086347141 | 0.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1969460429859965 | mzdjvf78ulZXyWhW1kRE | {"NO": 195.927666446219, "YES": 19444.680210267834} | 0 | will-starship-launch-at-least-5-orb | 19548.913530359583 | Will Starship launch at least 5 orbital payloads in 2023? | 1704129506507 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3840491955115644 | True | play | NO | public | 1652759694343 | Bolton Bailey | Resolves YES when Starship makes its 5th successful launch bringing any amount of payload to orbit in 2023. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 if it fails to make 5 such launches. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0292341326138352, "platformFee": 0.12818170708143745, "liquidityFee": 0.7690902424886246} | 0 | 1704129506507 | 540.7690902424886 | BoltonBailey | 1710451948615 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-20... | ["technology-default", "spacex", "space", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.44 | 1704126102610 | 1664570029008 | 0 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5442586973444036 | Od0wS4XkcsYqzZbHkjr6 | {"NO": 45.03613485068213, "YES": 662.907899195506} | 0 | will-i-go-to-high-school-next-year | 1840.703249576827 | Will I go to high school next year? | 1660485116270 | ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4571186191471304 | True | play | NO | public | 1652760350666 | Devansh | This market resolves to YES if I attend a public or private high school with more than 10 students at the beginning of the next school year, and NO otherwise
Context: I'm currently a high school sophomore, considering leaving in order to work on community building and AI work. It seems quite likely to me that I'll end ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.886619910090555, "platformFee": 3.5384828647597315, "liquidityFee": 21.230897188558384} | 0 | 1660485116270 | 221.23089718855837 | Devansh | 1658842679117 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.99 | 1658842675935 | 1653083762040 | 0.07504400070642497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19938485498186084 | Qc8xFvWSAhJFERz1ZWxy | {"NO": 85.36148836240514, "YES": 199.90488561614598} | 0 | can-you-still-get-loans-of-mana-on | 100 | Can you still get loans of mana on each bet? | 1652765296451 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.395665954495571 | True | play | NO | public | 1652763956783 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | I'm trying to figure out if there is some reason I have not been able to lately, or if it is site-wide disabled at the moment. I was unable to find much with a cursory search. The "you" here is intended to be a generic user. If I get a comment that answers before clearly before the close date, I will resolve to YES or ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5706863031238782, "platformFee": 0.0951143838539797, "liquidityFee": 0.5706863031238782} | 0 | 1652765296451 | 100.57068630312388 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1652764376811 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492227}] | ["olivia"] | 0.2 | 1652764285210 | 1652764373331 | 0.09612079037712111 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500190647642155 | S3ylbscBKSf7NIL3OrOa | {"NO": 10495.535781094002, "YES": 0.9813803038814513} | 1 | will-us-housing-prices-go-up-betwee | 10463.244256894537 | Will US housing prices go up between April and June? | 1662042246208 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.286039457577433 | True | play | YES | public | 1652764864162 | Jack | Resolves based on the Case-Shiller US national home price index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA. The most recent reported value was for Feb 2022. Resolves YES if the value of the index for June 2022 is higher than the value for April 2022.
Background on some factors that are likely important to housing p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.242985160263141, "platformFee": 0.10917619255832992, "liquidityFee": 0.6550571553499795} | 0 | 1662042246208 | 100.65505715534998 | jack | 1662042239233 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570061}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769998}] | ["economics-default", "housing-markets"] | 0.5 | 1662042237834 | 1662042224746 | 0.959861730469714 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cd80eFtG1WQzD1Q5Nx9r | the-comments-section-newslettrcom-2 | 20 | the Comments Section: newslettr.com 2022-19 | 1653086933775 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.962206060634121 | True | play | ae0401593f2a | public | 1652764908280 | Alex Power | https://www.newslettr.com/p/the-weeks-news-2022-19
Tired of the comments section on Substack, we have moved here.
the Week's News has a comments section. Pick a comment. Money will be wagered. Somebody will win.
May 17, 12:29am: This is a contest. 20-10-5 to the top three finishers in the vote. The other 55 to ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653086933775 | 260 | AlexPower | 1653086918795 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "19fc60f9f3ed", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.8446708789263, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.13165518672758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cd80eFtG1WQzD1Q5Nx9r", "createdTime": 1652764908342, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1652786137591 | 1653086915314 | {"ae0401593f2a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9 | pt2P15Ejk9qHcBIxthgH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-market-be-created-success | 0 | Will this market be created successfully? | 1652766506845 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.701635339554948 | True | play | YES | public | 1652766489359 | Marshall Polaris | This market resolves to YES if it successfully posts to the site. Bet quickly, because if it does, it will resolve soon after! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652766506845 | 100 | mqp | 1652766489359 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17DGKVvSNxi87rO7eVjy | which-intervention-will-best-resolv | 167 | Which intervention will best resolve my early carpel-tunnel syndrome? | 1664967073847 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.786478768837945 | True | play | 0bdc117a7578 | public | 1652769734831 | Bjorn | I've lost some feeling in my left pinky and want it back.
- I will try each answer for two weeks, in order from lowest investment to highest investment, and resolve to the intervention that worked.
Please put a comment under you suggestion, explaining any reasoning or research you have behind it.
- I will not entertai... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664967073847 | 379.99999999999994 | brp | 1664967060324 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "63408ef9b5c3", "prob": 0.14027409558276874, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.504236453682067, "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.73491480097201, "textFts": "", "contractId": "17DGKVvSNxi87rO7eVjy", "createdTime": 1652769734896, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 6 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529521607}] | ["science-default"] | 1657762431187 | 1664967054490 | {"0bdc117a7578": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40179679489178377 | Q2HsIVBHpHNmjRVF3E3A | {"NO": 44.79305240313953, "YES": 380.1994968539114} | 0 | will-i-get-access-to-dalle2-before | 368.46757901024705 | Will I get access to DALLE2 before July 1st? | 1656626340000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.310359291498452 | True | play | NO | public | 1652770054028 | Magnus Hambleton | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.318712812160982, "platformFee": 0.48181042713483685, "liquidityFee": 2.8908625628090205} | 0 | 1656698956024 | 102.89086256280903 | Mag | 1656604369616 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448005}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.4 | 1656604368117 | 1652774435071 | 0.07333004245857772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5066258923820021 | sFpqtlAqgmui667TYp8v | {"NO": 12.201102681707528, "YES": 1081.9047548345927} | 0 | will-btc-be-at-least-30000-at-1159p | 1264.7346195080077 | Will BTC be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Wednesday 5/18 | 1652943540000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.5586796952860835 | True | play | NO | public | 1652771014209 | Alex Rockwell | As measured by coinmarketcap average price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.421295051716626, "platformFee": 1.7368825086194377, "liquidityFee": 10.421295051716626} | 0 | 1652943592932 | 110.42129505171664 | AlexRockwell | 1652943609946 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.55 | 1652943075219 | 1652943606469 | 0.0211478214256009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.98 | a3QsUXICu1ig59zJiI27 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-market-successfully-post | 0 | Will this market successfully post? | 1652772858873 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.892418164222814 | True | play | YES | public | 1652772848754 | Marshall Polaris | Testing market creation again just to check something. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652772858873 | 100 | mqp | 1652772848754 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.98 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30956608723857665 | n3Se0gaGwXY87HnMiIZB | {"NO": 96.00770883359742, "YES": 435.24746619177034} | 0 | will-i-take-a-ride-in-a-selfdriving | 736.6377189159133 | Will I take a ride in a self-driving car in 2022? | 1672547514589 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.605110167480411 | True | play | NO | public | 1652774087653 | Rai | I live in Bay Area, worked at Google for a while, am quite willing to try out alpha/beta software. I would be interested in the community's estimate to the probability that I'll be able to take a ride in a self-driving car this year.
I wonder about this because I'd like to have some quantitative estimate of "when shou... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.585534854697176, "platformFee": 0.590419099962936, "liquidityFee": 3.542514599777616} | 0 | 1672547514589 | 163.54251459977763 | agentydragon | 1672545122559 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453716}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588656}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2... | ["ai", "technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.35 | 1672545122455 | 1655946676326 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40061303460660685 | 5WoFKqh7wnY3dfnYui5p | {"NO": 124.42604545653114, "YES": 78.85326794045645} | 0 | will-i-have-a-primary-care-practiti | 81.09190306568942 | Will I have a primary care practitioner by the end of the month? | 1654066740000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8386879680408934 | True | play | NO | public | 1652775287808 | Rai | I am new to USA. Resolves to YES if by end of May I've seen a generalist doctor and I've decided to keep them as my primary care practitioner, at least for the time being. Right now, I don't have any appointment scheduled. I don't like dealing with the US healthcare system, but do want to get a PCP for a few things.
C... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.82323442202703, "platformFee": 0.3038724036711717, "liquidityFee": 1.82323442202703} | 0 | 1654070040654 | 101.82323442202704 | agentydragon | 1653865108935 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1653865108772 | 1653413622330 | 0.5132996923587625 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15030273204309708 | 8YlNxUoZD62JGD945zSa | {"NO": 1003.7570166006694, "YES": 957.7605634892684} | 0.15639213742152594 | in-5-years-will-an-implantable-devi | 802.1333287927147 | Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027? | 1811282340000 | JkH8Q9cPPjg9T4dFcz8wTXlLioX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.844394139397835 | False | basic | public | 1652775594134 | Paulin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Musk's 4/24/2023 promise", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1518226433730134018", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-pri... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002439407709781377} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.528080101434004, "platformFee": 0.8940664793129567, "liquidityFee": 5.36439887587774} | 0 | 1000 | Ppau | 1719198674838 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWiZZQIP_FPeOhyNxw7ekUac8H2iGP1RFFb2tR=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444392}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.06 | 1719198639254 | 1719198528556 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4957198276437442 | 1ATHywzYOs9eA6ijFo0M | {"NO": 129.16019078189422, "YES": 108.19229459313945} | 1 | will-the-us-experience-food-shortag | 412.9303422635062 | Will the US experience food shortages in the next three months? | 1653407771575 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4546296567200327 | True | play | YES | public | 1652787209361 | Stephen Malina | Taking advantage of Manifold markets resolving by fiat to experiment with a market where I resolve based on my own research and subjective judgement at the end.
The context here is I tried to find good concrete measures of whether there's been a food shortage but ultimately failed to find things that seem sufficiently... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.151013703773733, "platformFee": 1.5251689506289556, "liquidityFee": 9.151013703773733} | 0 | 1653407771575 | 109.15101370377373 | StephenMalina | 1653421942430 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 13 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563568}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653406879298 | 1653421941100 | 0.4159766107151489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8996701365199908 | UGVEclGfC4jqvz1LD70s | {"NO": 1976.0097092876547, "YES": 233.28311034378203} | 1 | will-starlink-have-over-a-million-s | 2551.784957965789 | Will Starlink have over a million subscribers by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | TGeqnSwTU5NDdaBwhI1HBXtDF5m2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0004044238270011962 | 2.998726026879944 | True | play | YES | public | 1652790143795 | Wilf | They had 250,000 subscribers in March 2022 (https://spacenews.com/starlink-reaches-250000-subscribers-as-it-targets-aviation-and-other-markets/) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.219328996018557, "platformFee": 0.4876783810415806, "liquidityFee": 2.926070286249484} | 0 | 1704205250334 | 382.92607028624946 | wilf | 1710451925506 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwX9_z1vXQhBmwcpgQZTA2JiNdbW8SzTMGCEY58PA=s96-c | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "e... | ["technology-default", "space", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.1211731572446168 | 0.2 | 1693336676569 | 1676927796503 | 0.99 | TGeqnSwTU5NDdaBwhI1HBXtDF5m2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01632408419419578 | UJtC3XylFZybKXWKQhxW | {"NO": 144, "YES": 1.3159251466277053e-13} | 1 | test-48584957894587398755484 | 44 | test 4.8584957894587398755484 | 1652791937766 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59593101457845 | True | play | YES | public | 1652791917562 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14, "platformFee": 8.597567102697212e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.1585402616183266e-14} | 0 | 1652791937766 | 100.00000000000006 | Electricitypipe | 1652791935495 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652791934078 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9vl8Rr6ekUTxGDDzCQJa | where-will-i-post-about-my-acxrat-m | 360.5901242358653 | Where will I post about my ACX/Rat meetup in Denver happening on June 4th? | 1654408740000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.736952172133252 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652792793758 | Ian Philips | I'm organizing a rationalist meetup. Should I post to ea forums? Lesswrong? ACX discord?
May 19, 5:56pm: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/3u5QEKGXxsXLN4d6P/denver-co-city-park-meetup | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.199999999999999, "platformFee": 1.0499999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654522837379 | 540 | ian | 1654401748147 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "79ae227fbe7f", "prob": 0.0673215834460895, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7570187366627905, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.341873278700977, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9vl8Rr6ekUTxGDDzCQJa", "createdTime": 1652792793816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1654401746770 | 1654087849221 | {"471cbd8883e5": 25, "7f10cb4fcb9c": 25, "8b2ef6aaca33": 25, "a15b4b71429f": 25} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.501349370508453 | ZtoHpO2sVxTvGXkvK7Ya | {"NO": 18.436154864190684, "YES": 565.3822447601972} | 1 | will-researchers-discover-the-purpo | 563.9261935169122 | Will researchers discover the purpose of Raspberry Robin by 2022-08-17? | 1660795140000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.036708791387402 | True | play | YES | public | 1652792869837 | Martin Randall | https://www.lifewire.com/mysterious-new-windows-malware-continues-to-vex-researchers-5271614
> Cybersecurity researchers from Red Canary recently discovered a new worm-like malware they’ve dubbed Raspberry Robin, which spreads via infected USB drives. While they’ve been able to observe and study the working of the mal... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.208444004662261, "platformFee": 0.21401931056719622, "liquidityFee": 1.2841158634031773} | 0 | 1661477769228 | 101.28411586340317 | MartinRandall | 1661477758969 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450739}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1660793815604 | 1661477757475 | 0.03174405877656526 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19998044496619258 | TGCqwn5JWkFM2pds6tn7 | {"NO": 97.86334186088129, "YES": 110.21794294370736} | 0 | will-the-same-work-win-both-the-202 | 29.763895381824874 | Will the same work win both the 2022 Hugo Award and 2022 Nebula Award for Best Novel? | 1662267540000 | oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.327453690449527 | True | play | NO | public | 1652797609677 | Nick Hansen | Since 1966, when the Nebula Awards first began, 26 novels have won both the Hugo and Nebula award for best novel. Two novels are nominees for both awards this year. This market will resolve to yes if the same novel wins both awards. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10897004680664146, "platformFee": 0.01816167446777358, "liquidityFee": 0.10897004680664146} | 0 | 1662567855395 | 100.10897004680665 | NickHansen | 1662035666778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJMhAHO6lUyyX5TOGoPPZjylGQ3-DLNgmXUxS0Q_4=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544395}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.2 | 1662035665442 | 0.18163574522662762 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49961941603323734 | csgHvxMHLlNgTvAPMsuI | {"NO": 102.22198361937818, "YES": 103.74313404890808} | 0 | will-the-predicted-probability-for | 60.61084135922607 | Will the predicted probability for this question be less than 50%? | 1656626400000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7143353286263188 | True | play | NO | public | 1652799499335 | T | May 17, 5:14pm: If it resolves as 50% that would be "No", not NA, just to state that explicitly.
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6376239177115968, "platformFee": 0.24826331091324477, "liquidityFee": 1.4895798654794687} | 0 | 1690861318279 | 101.48957986547947 | T | 1690861326935 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666818035262}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1690888573844}] | ["please-resolve", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1656608875945 | 1690861322440 | False | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | cnOiu9VuH3GqQNNWubMa | {"NO": 80.65580383252413, "YES": 123.983638186339} | 0.39413615985665895 | will-this-market-be-the-bet-with-la | 25 | Will this market be the bet with largest amount of currency bet in total of all the markets I create this month (june 2022)? | 1656626400000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7956524359513417 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652801035135 | T | The bet amount for a bet is the "ϻX,XXXX bet" number on the bet. The bet has to have been *created* within this month. The amounts are checked as soon after market close as I am able to, but may not be exactly at market close.
Close date updated to 2022-07-01 12:00 am
May 17, 6:04pm: I noticed that I wrote June inste... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702186818574 | 100 | T | 1702186816558 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663031496965}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1702186782945}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "sl... | ["please-resolve", "unsubsidized", "nonpredictive", "selfresolving"] | 0.5 | False | False | 1656599726043 | 1702186814863 | 0.39 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5006959782335241 | agpTg5oH8wmC6NXLjh8L | {"NO": 149.9764660781887, "YES": 73.12436107944858} | 1 | will-the-number-of-markets-i-create | 93 | Will the number of markets I create on this site within May of 2022 be a prime number? | 1654034400000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.746456378196947 | True | play | YES | public | 1652803801601 | T | Bets that were created in the past count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3355354232428134, "platformFee": 0.38925590387380227, "liquidityFee": 2.3355354232428134} | 0 | 1654066399785 | 102.33553542324283 | T | 1654029606044 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654029604632 | 0.6728493604759581 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48616949432781215 | vBrRVZQsncPMrUAPo2Ho | {"NO": 134.65885480672267, "YES": 98.45949676675161} | 1 | will-this-bet-resolve-as-true | 516.5936564829376 | Will this bet resolve as true? | 1654034400000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.506521548483628 | True | play | YES | public | 1652804064054 | T | How much do you trust a stranger?
To make it more interesting I will bet 250ϻ against. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.934167615834565, "platformFee": 1.322361269305761, "liquidityFee": 7.934167615834565} | 0 | 1654066353203 | 107.93416761583457 | T | 1654034010770 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654034010588 | 0.5640863518254013 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30803366925211456 | HmiFhhuwYMhDK3papf8a | {"NO": 172.00742769230547, "YES": 34.164841503337726} | 1 | will-i-find-a-place-to-crash-in-nyc | 81 | Will I find a place to crash in NYC tonight? | 1652846340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4645874579600546 | True | play | YES | public | 1652806190138 | Austin | Flying in to NYC and I still don't have a place to stay tonight. Some options, ranked by personal preference:
- Crash on someone's couch
- Sneak into a WeWork and sleep there
- Pay for a hotel room somewhere
Please comment if you know someone willing to lend me a couch!
Market resolves NO if I end up staying at an A... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3468488100314793, "platformFee": 0.3911414683385799, "liquidityFee": 2.3468488100314793} | 0 | 1652871617372 | 102.34684881003149 | Austin | 1652833697942 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 1652833696312 | 1652823366765 | 0.691472492119144 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30180489980262926 | cymmltLOVBYdL3vkYvQU | {"NO": 73.87143026922296, "YES": 369.894037169028} | 0 | will-hurricane-gaston-be-category-3 | 250 | Will Hurricane Gaston be Category 3 or higher? | 1664314567103 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1789636138937234 | True | play | NO | public | 1652806513629 | LukeW | The seventh named storm in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season) will be "Gaston". This market resolves to YES if that storm is classified on the Saffir–Simpson scale as Category 3, 4, or 5. Resolves to NO otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6357769858319633, "platformFee": 0.10596283097199388, "liquidityFee": 0.6357769858319633} | 0 | 1664314567103 | 120.63577698583197 | LukeW | 1664314561035 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530870}] | ["science-default"] | 0.33 | 1663817427978 | 1664314559557 | 0.07946720396905117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8bacpgObKU7MPdjkuW51 | how-many-concurrent-players-will-st | 147 | How many concurrent players will Storybook Brawl have by June 2023 | 1685592000000 | 72r6bEoar1S7vw8SfUKOCW06g3q1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.831008897274297 | True | play | 5d82869d6f94 | public | 1652808530786 | Ilyas | By June 1st 2023 Storybook Brawl will have been available to play for about a year and a half. At the time of writing it has under a thousand concurrent players, although many of them are dedicated and the game has reliably well attended tournaments.
This bet is regarding the potential growth of the game as the devel... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685593446843 | 280 | Ilyas | 1682686436698 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg0uyPP1z_hbk6str-XjDZ2h1Q93RQb7rUCT3d_Mg=s96-c | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3787be90e31b", "prob": 0.23337767509160073, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.02711661701114, "userId": "72r6bEoar1S7vw8SfUKOCW06g3q1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.21727537521988, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8bacpgObKU7MPdjkuW51", "createdTime": 1652808530903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1 | [] | [] | 1682686436601 | {"5d82869d6f94": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5065581184774259 | 8FaK7RPvrYyk7j5DZxtp | {"NO": 1054.0514378112675, "YES": 11.066745020138455} | 1 | will-manifold-bring-back-communitie | 962 | Will Manifold bring back communities in some form this year? | 1656695737379 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.852602454346465 | True | play | YES | public | 1652817007475 | SneakySly | Will Manifold bring back the communities feature that they previously had or something like it by the end of the year? Resolves YES if something I consider close enough OR something the Manifold team creates specifically as a communities replacement is implemented. Otherwise resolves NO at the end of the year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.864485796504453, "platformFee": 0.40553141469292037, "liquidityFee": 2.433188488157522} | 0 | 1656695737379 | 102.43318848815751 | SneakySly | 1656695713815 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 1656695712669 | 1656695672502 | 0.9193069317184152 |
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