p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5399182887218867 | cenGlY17kkJvoqGcX8EG | {"NO": 6004.323957459661, "YES": 3.6928201006554175} | 1 | will-joel-becker-become-a-top5-bett | 7067.096887776686 | Will Joel Becker become a top-5 bettor before August? | 1653881243271 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.988251057582044 | True | play | YES | public | 1652817024004 | @misha | This is a follow-up to a just resolved: https://manifold.markets/misha/will-joel-becker-join-the-leaderboa
Who: https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker
What exactly: be a top-5 trader as displayed at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards anytime before 00:01 Aug 1st (GMT-4) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.59866391512773, "platformFee": 1.4331106525212887, "liquidityFee": 8.59866391512773} | 0 | 1653881243271 | 108.59866391512772 | misha | 1653881291425 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653838480728 | 1653881287720 | 0.9994761904416456 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3523548257314032 | R78WgJlIbovv0S1mDIpm | {"NO": 939.829536647524, "YES": 1106.4376493620439} | 0.3160668204168808 | in-2020-joe-carlsmith-estimated-tha | 256.3360122153819 | In 2020, Joe Carlsmith estimated that 10^15 FLOPS is "enough" to perform human functionality. The next post estimating this number will believe it is >=10^15 | 1716609540000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62025671432085 | False | basic | public | 1652817201321 | Quinn | In OpenPhil's 2020 report https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report , Joe Carlsmith writes
> Overall, I think it more likely than not that 10^15 FLOP/s is enough to perform tasks as well as the human brain (given the right software, which may be very hard to create). And I think it unlikely (<10%) that... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.042172679136936, "platformFee": 0.9053832585362982, "liquidityFee": 1.2349547837563435} | 0 | 1000 | Quinn | 1716548074790 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 6 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528262}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1716548071332 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1397821511775121 | QXWlgWr5DOiTm3auEJfa | {"NO": 927.4013234308771, "YES": 1230.4968613075137} | 0.10910776170126532 | will-commaai-let-me-read-a-book-whi | 495.2764766229507 | Will Comma.ai let me read a book while driving before Tesla does? | 4102473540000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.96174785901605 | False | basic | public | 1652817663323 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is a proxy for \"which is better, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Comma.ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Comma.ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:deco... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.0011458105342346675} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0904575438048325, "platformFee": 0.1133817353663773, "liquidityFee": 0.6802904121982638} | 0 | 1000 | dreev | 1719201702601 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 17 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-mu... | ["technology-default", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.51 | 1719201698723 | 1697407662083 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | F81q0kQLuuAauwR6bENt | {"NO": 250, "YES": 250} | 0.5 | will-haruinvest-default-in-2021 | 0 | Will HaruInvest default in 2021? | 1652828966358 | Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3458889464848516 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652821607710 | Infohazard Assessor | Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk
HaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652828966358 | 250 | metacontrarian | 1652828966570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652828963105 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03442818198470847 | k3iS4FL95g6oOdSaTFBY | {"NO": 287.10474329486715, "YES": 1219.395757402539} | 0 | will-donald-trump-be-the-president | 53978.66134989055 | Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States of (or for) America by July 4th, 2022? | 1657004340000 | c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.761965182851807 | True | play | NO | public | 1652822853046 | Dr P | Because I am now a manifold celebrity I will allow the plebs another shot at the infamous Trump for president markets. I also promise to resolve the market on time - with or without stern emails or ball-licking incentive. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 305.13600972017554, "platformFee": 40.98024812323616, "liquidityFee": 245.88148873941714} | 0 | 1657040155991 | 333.04636532083236 | DrP | 1704344586921 | 0 | 157 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181889771}] | ["donald-trump"] | 0.2 | 1656998023245 | 1657040677092 | False | 0.008325196160035804 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9FCXIQKdCuBMnTcs4g0U | what-color-will-be-chosen-the-most | 791.3429880397058 | What color will be chosen the most in a weeks’ time? | 1653428274878 | iNdo3RtvE3MNmRV48J2kMIAkHyw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.680404468129897 | True | play | 5ce67d664f77 | public | 1652822955342 | Luigisopa | I will choose the color with the most votes sometime on the 24th of May. It has to be a color (and also not “black” or “white”). | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.87195725281684, "platformFee": 4.21798931320421, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653428274878 | 480 | Luigisopa | 1653425583911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg1Cm2vPAX1t3iyDUicpgpB2fuVERiBcaoCY2OT=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "59fa66b74737", "prob": 0.018229120782632568, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.1987163024928671, "userId": "iNdo3RtvE3MNmRV48J2kMIAkHyw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.702319730039768, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9FCXIQKdCuBMnTcs4g0U", "createdTime": 1652822955409, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1653425582560 | {"5ce67d664f77": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1780595809191395 | UoW6zhXBu6LpmTceU9JA | {"NO": 833.8718760160025, "YES": 1975.035028918114} | 0 | will-us-nuclear-energy-become-more | 2601.574083558935 | Will US Nuclear Energy become more deregulated in the next two years? | 1717304340000 | 4ULThhX5krRSzTnDnl97sUwqP9q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.87591202838939 | True | basic | NO | public | 1652824705037 | John Buridan | This market resolves to Yes, if any government action by Congress or Executive Order explicitly encourages the construction (not R&D) of new nuclear power plants and provides financial/regulatory help for doing so. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08379925789356014} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.312584289218556, "platformFee": 15.880044729498396, "liquidityFee": 1.6858627510325292} | 0 | 1717329567068 | 1000 | JohnBuridan | 1717304340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxb5v_Qp-0nP0Vz0-lntj5iOLkv3mo7F-wfrxJK=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449514}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "gro... | ["technology-default", "nuclear-risk", "nuclear"] | 0.5 | 1717205396741 | 1715742182603 | False | 0.08 | 4ULThhX5krRSzTnDnl97sUwqP9q2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5201611979030006 | WySz1JxHfh1iixIRTRNc | {"NO": 796.6533615642577, "YES": 102.36153841425795} | 1 | will-at-least-10-of-my-markets-get | 6415.354988450164 | Will at least 10 of my markets get at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$? | 1653461940000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6476948835173175 | True | play | YES | public | 1652825914457 | Rai | Resolves to YES if by time of close there are at least 10 markets that I created that have at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ from users who are not me. Those markets do not have to be still open at time of close - markets that close before that point still count, if they have >=10 bids of >=10 M$.
May 20, 8:38am: not... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.52207381792452, "platformFee": 14.253678969654086, "liquidityFee": 85.52207381792452} | 0 | 1653464136491 | 185.52207381792456 | agentydragon | 1653492616694 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.33 | 1653454275288 | 1653492615179 | 0.8940313130018742 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5316392196253169 | PPp6ky8fkIywzuM8fPyp | {"NO": 8272.159913427075, "YES": 40.316081453956166} | 1 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-a81e2aa364aa | 12489.495948871547 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Pennsylvania? | 1667975226783 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5054697636711105 | True | play | YES | public | 1652830841856 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.047112545684398, "platformFee": 0.285016357937841, "liquidityFee": 1.710098147627046} | 0 | 1667975226783 | 541.710098147627 | NcyRocks | 1667975035338 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 37 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983490}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484796}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1667975035248 | 1665737951174 | 0.9194886272450418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3571276105709289 | HPFTrOcmPZVviqF2kn57 | {"NO": 9.67618678562199, "YES": 12642.831056212786} | 0 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-c348aa40582f | 27323.113804389544 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $765 on May 18, 2022? | 1652900520000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.328584492272625 | True | play | NO | public | 1652832299289 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.321922648173736, "platformFee": 3.5536537746956225, "liquidityFee": 21.321922648173736} | 0 | 1652904561335 | 121.32192264817373 | Predictor | 1652900511170 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424631}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567683}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652900509834 | 1652892320255 | 0.0004249853456256249 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019311664349231313 | TPfLWgWicMlforIso48r | {"NO": 109.9099642723565, "YES": 1.103446817543153} | 1 | test-35 | 10 | test 35 | 1652835088408 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.226295368037949 | True | play | YES | public | 1652834968674 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5402143658610141, "platformFee": 0.09003572764350236, "liquidityFee": 0.5402143658610141} | 0 | 1652835088408 | 100.54021436586102 | Electricitypipe | 1652835053262 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652835051880 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43349387615801216 | l5oHBgZQbs1g1tPOIxcO | {"NO": 72.87085927753716, "YES": 1072.2733842363812} | 0 | will-outstanding-net-bets-on-this-m | 3515.214552099007 | Will outstanding net bets on this market be at least M$500 higher for YES than NO when it closes on May 19? | 1653029940000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1501681925469684 | True | play | NO | public | 1652836820084 | Richard | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.40791992503644, "platformFee": 10.567986654172739, "liquidityFee": 63.40791992503644} | 0 | 1653030040588 | 163.40791992503642 | Richard | 1653029933644 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | 1653029933452 | 0.04943218720043337 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43870425206173663 | ZSsZPusuGKSdy4aqEclm | {"NO": 250.19287253538795, "YES": 342.4364626785753} | 1 | will-any-of-the-defenders-of-mariup | 304.80568604162545 | Will any of the Defenders of Mariupol be executed by Russia? | 1684382340000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2229291369440214 | True | play | YES | public | 1652837496769 | Martin Randall | > The fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers who have ended weeks of resistance at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol remains unclear, after the fighters surrendered and were transferred to Russian-controlled territory.
Resolves yes if any of them are killed by Russia after surrender, under any circumstances.
Resolve... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9520942968423862, "platformFee": 0.024593577629083343, "liquidityFee": 0.14756146577450005} | 0 | 1684582563585 | 290.1475614657745 | MartinRandall | 1684582559906 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419015}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224478}] | ["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1684379564180 | 1684582556190 | False | 0.36 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3235832255540039 | Zq3XPeGh76NTOhB12h7P | {"NO": 117.43332868857551, "YES": 615.9663023251902} | 0 | will-doug-mastriano-become-governor | 744.6994481567675 | Will Doug Mastriano become governor of PA? | 1667361540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.953788858641583 | True | play | NO | public | 1652840912365 | Enopoletus Harding | Note: he must actually be inaugurated as governor, being elected is not sufficient. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5006121247974693, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670595791529 | 220 | EnopoletusHarding | 1669039857734 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 11 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458138}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493790}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1667357946921 | 1669039856349 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4986098954066379 | C4QPyIArjCRzM6BMtjer | {"NO": 75.65584071032914, "YES": 141.16582059775556} | 0.3 | how-many-different-money-symbols-wi | 62 | How many different money symbols will MM try live before this market closes? | 1654487940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.757490159144386 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652848752593 | Undox | So fat, the original M$, ϻ, ℳ̶, so that is 3 by my counting.
I will use https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commits/main/common/envs/prod.ts as my guide, but also let me know if you see any more as there could be other files the team can edit to change the symbol.
Market closes at same time as https://manifo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6273472414961008, "platformFee": 0.27122454024935005, "liquidityFee": 1.6273472414961008} | 0 | 1689593415342 | 101.62734724149608 | Undox | 1680903114495 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779724291}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1654309273016 | 1680903111606 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4990772740039761 | 0k6Eh8ow5Klu1edezXVc | {"NO": 8.14345753405549, "YES": 1285.2089589679765} | 0 | will-yair-lapid-become-prime-minist | 1479.0243350191838 | Will Yair Lapid become prime minister of Israel under the rotation agreement as scheduled? | 1656657715707 | e7vQaQHWrcRixDLP03bqnfAU7wa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.331634157096961 | True | play | NO | public | 1652849142370 | zzq | This market resolves to YES if the current rotation government survives until August 27th 2023, and Naftali Bennett steps down as Prime Minister in favor of Yair Lapid at that point as agreed in the rotation agreement.
This market will resolve to NO if Yair Lapid becomes prime minister under other circumstances, inclu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.52797898219421, "platformFee": 0.15225459387088008, "liquidityFee": 0.9135275632252805} | 0 | 1656657715707 | 100.91352756322527 | zzq | 1656648560154 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fzzq%2FofAkE9vayg.58?alt=media&token=311ebe1e-02d0-480a-8ed4-110944601955 | 9 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529466955}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529561925}] | ["israeli-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1656648558807 | 1656644550583 | 0.07575429437434757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6860461820702154 | kbrFzC8kADRMhr2SKCLC | {"NO": 2596.9237897842654, "YES": 22.527177526335393} | 1 | will-dr-p-resolve-his-current-trump | 6241.1470525114755 | Will Dr P resolve his current Trump market accurately and on time? | 1657042724306 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.158702450209803 | True | play | YES | public | 1652852194942 | SneakySly | Will Dr P resolve his current Trump market accurately and on time like he says? If he resolves it N/A that counts as a NO as well.
https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-be-the-president | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.83958089363216, "platformFee": 8.576136131196295, "liquidityFee": 51.45681678717776} | 0 | 1657042724306 | 100.00026005570362 | SneakySly | 1657041777423 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 0.5 | 1657041777293 | 1657040871303 | 0.9960459752934189 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7565556818277659 | ZgnXQKc3JBCEAuDzCPsW | {"NO": 5.11929385282245, "YES": 265.2243394207387} | 0 | will-anyone-else-make-an-offer-on-t | 225 | Will anyone else make an offer on this house in the next week? | 1653461940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.308728425417069 | True | play | NO | public | 1652853461016 | Jack | We're moving to NY in a few months and looking to buy a home. We're currently seriously considering a specific house which we've seen by videocall, and likely about to make an offer, but not sure whether we should fly out to see it in person before committing.
The house has been on the market for 9 weeks. 2 weeks in i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9887653851314058, "platformFee": 0.4981275641885677, "liquidityFee": 2.9887653851314058} | 0 | 1653497551084 | 102.98876538513142 | jack | 1653458112021 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1653458110470 | 0.056589842482468365 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3894677092736879 | 4fDScgsy7sjmqdujkvIw | {"NO": 64.1876057620551, "YES": 378.12820847400974} | 0 | in-planecrash-will-carissa-go-from | 755.3986054908656 | In Planecrash, will Carissa go from 'unfinished secret cleric of Irori' to 'aware full cleric of Irori' before Keltham fully departs from Cheliax or before the end of Day 91? | 1653444972640 | 1byffozk9qMdipy9hkZI5jyIx222 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.795824917153136 | True | play | NO | public | 1652855026493 | Arete | Resolves to YES if, by the end of Day 91, or by the time Keltham has actually left Cheliax, whichever comes second, Carissa is an aware non-unfinished cleric of Irori.
If Carissa prays to Irori for spells and receives them, that qualifies.
Resolves NO if this does not happen, including if she deduces she is a cleric ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.014162239157569, "platformFee": 2.3356937065262606, "liquidityFee": 14.014162239157569} | 0 | 1653444972640 | 114.01416223915759 | Arete | 1653305626861 | 0 | 15 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390985}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.4 | 1653305625306 | 0.09770635576990365 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4958872732812277 | zoNrhe9RZDzX83mexOv7 | {"NO": 12.699321700350822, "YES": 915.5463013082023} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-8a7c7fb66e1b | 1252.8051061517772 | Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows commenting by July 1st, 2022? | 1656655140000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.608193382387475 | True | play | NO | public | 1652865325323 | Scott Lawrence | This will resolve YES iff the APi is: publicly available, official, and documented. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.156723076254712, "platformFee": 0.4957342720202123, "liquidityFee": 2.974405632121273} | 0 | 1656680837319 | 102.97440563212128 | ScottLawrence | 1656648927523 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656648927233 | 1655310716148 | 0.013460769062449474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4935851051428231 | QUBV35MsFFQNu2Cm8j27 | {"NO": 3149.628873582819, "YES": 3.1295915719156255} | 1 | take-all-bets-created-by-me-in-may | 3555.218580903285 | Take all bets created by me in May 2022. Will the sum of bets on them exceed m3000 by the end of June 2022? | 1656626400000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.306449782513933 | True | play | YES | public | 1652869942647 | T | The bets must have been created in May, but have through June to accumulate bets! This bet is included
As of 18/5/2022 the following markets are included:
- This market
- https://manifold.markets/T/will-this-bet-resolve-as-true
- https://manifold.markets/T/will-the-number-of-markets-i-create
- https://manifold.marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.893953874626041, "platformFee": 0.31622776601683794, "liquidityFee": 1.8973665961010275} | 0 | 1663705392152 | 101.89736659610102 | T | 1663705440587 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779928123}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1656609307408 | 1663705434405 | 0.9989815723475841 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09121697961384573 | X119ofpHSQnnkZnIc8AC | {"NO": 324.7422874055089, "YES": 329.5742040659795} | 0 | will-football-come-home | 1100.4265165725378 | Will football come home? | 1669852740000 | Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9861867369316692 | True | play | NO | public | 1652870080952 | Ferruginous Duck | Resolves yes if England win the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
The answer to this question was revealed to me in a dream long ago - will Manifold converge on the truth? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7598551269620035, "platformFee": 0.05155128696439362, "liquidityFee": 0.3093077217863617} | 0 | 1670843276908 | 340.30930772178635 | FerruginousDuck | 1669834205231 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 28 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403898}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666203542760}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "group... | ["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "nfl", "soccer"] | 0.01 | 1669834204933 | 1668457511001 | False | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7363304587846562 | Jqabc3EEBcn3zmhQDF3w | {"NO": 16.904554388801863, "YES": 212.81220544454615} | 0 | will-i-have-signed-and-notarised-my | 232 | Will I have signed and notarised my papers for the Cryonics Institute by 2022-06-15? | 1655247600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.087124916346195 | True | play | NO | public | 1652872959095 | Tetra | In Normal Cryonics [ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hiDkhLyN5S2MEjrSE/normal-cryonics ], EY writes:
> Actually signing up is an intense filter for Conscientiousness, since it's mildly tedious (requires multiple copies of papers signed and notarized with witnesses) and there's no peer pressure.
You'll never guess wh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.802384047726062, "platformFee": 0.8003973412876771, "liquidityFee": 4.802384047726062} | 0 | 1655283251982 | 104.80238404772604 | Tetraspace | 1655223637302 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "osAdS5WK8oeGbRncQHQU", "createdTime": 1677443903306}] | ["cryonics"] | 0.75 | 1655223635702 | 1655170733026 | 0.18155543891931358 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5301534322500285 | 5ZvB1TffmXdOVDxWhMiI | {"NO": 929.5655639046684, "YES": 16.16455319922122} | 1 | in-the-uk-will-there-be-over-20-con | 931.6263856850112 | In the UK, will there be over 20 confirmed cases of Monkey Pox by July? | 1653087540000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3902397661298895 | True | play | YES | public | 1652873783105 | Jonathan Nankivell | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_monkeypox_outbreak
Close date updated to 2022-05-20 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.8483024619235175, "platformFee": 0.8080504103205861, "liquidityFee": 4.8483024619235175} | 0 | 1653233914391 | 104.84830246192352 | JonathanNankivell | 1653233862574 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946155}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1660362367748}] | ["medicine", "monkeypox"] | 0.5 | 1653085930810 | 1653233860353 | 0.9848226417942282 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.058836360985198954 | h4woJMJJ7Z1zARGGxiPl | {"NO": 116.49565868291079, "YES": 11.145467282077835} | 0 | will-the-predicted-probability-of-t | 56.86860801031771 | Will the predicted probability of the market linked in the description be <40? | 1655676000000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.16241890197605 | True | play | NO | public | 1652873819168 | T | May 18, 1:38pm: https://manifold.markets/T/will-the-predicted-probability-of-t-b6375ea9261c | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9988824139435475, "platformFee": 0.2035347770268826, "liquidityFee": 1.2212086621612954} | 0 | 1656597442051 | 101.22120866216129 | T | 1655683586340 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1655520843411 | 1655683582966 | 0.3951928289572215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9434323708526172 | kBtw4rA5EIYRbj8IhfRN | {"NO": 6.242475188074913, "YES": 118.71100606439481} | 0 | will-the-predicted-probability-of-t-b6375ea9261c | 40.66172043603577 | Will the predicted probability of the market linked in the description be >60? | 1655676000000 | CZn211VaKYTjR8YCY5vZjCAxzzT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.166370303192426 | True | play | NO | public | 1652873886937 | T | https://manifold.markets/T/will-the-predicted-probability-of-t | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0646189860381607, "platformFee": 0.11221446514116572, "liquidityFee": 0.6732867908469942} | 0 | 1656597388461 | 100.67328679084699 | T | 1655582492679 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.95 | 1655582491358 | 0.4672401322663921 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3990495219898423 | ayI5KvZcYaHpehHpj9Q5 | {"NO": 390.7539384408117, "YES": 11504.424305059834} | 0 | will-haruinvest-default-in-2022 | 15344.691112733897 | Will HaruInvest default in 2022? | 1672615544764 | Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5854206421213464 | True | basic | NO | public | 1652874818103 | Infohazard Assessor | Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk
HaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.37441908796639, "platformFee": 0.27092581627773504, "liquidityFee": 1.62555489766641} | 0 | 1672615544764 | 1571.6255548976665 | metacontrarian | 1672613287730 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1660131866028}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1672613287595 | 1672591447649 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35027481962758006 | d9TS3fQYtV4wt4SWPTZz | {"NO": 181.89238299276937, "YES": 1789.5506253551632} | 0 | will-bryan-caplan-join-manifold-and | 1735.8047853275657 | Will Bryan Caplan join Manifold and create at least one market before September? | 1662004740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3344496927494025 | True | play | NO | public | 1652880222795 | SG | Bryan Caplan is Professor of Economics at George Mason University and author of the blog Bet on It (https://betonit.substack.com/about). His previous writings (such as https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/03/what_does_the_b.html) lead me to believe that he would enjoy Manifold. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.122543322781235, "platformFee": 0.42897151089507246, "liquidityFee": 2.5738290653704343} | 0 | 1662009599797 | 402.5738290653704 | SG | 1661999240301 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.35 | 1661999239107 | 1654485296907 | 0.05194948223005778 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10918136512992019 | UC2x3q08w2M3JtNQmY5Z | {"NO": 140.04809538872152, "YES": 144.81582276771613} | 0.10596772593778081 | will-the-uk-reinstate-any-covidrela | 66.5454804157736 | Will the UK reinstate any COVID-related entry requirements before 2025? | 1737763200000 | FebmYaXJmudUl8fwK56RbYQJG2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652884755858 | Eigil Rischel | The UK lifted its last COVID-related travel restrictions on 2022-03-18. This question resolves YES if any such restrictions are reintroduced for any part of the UK before 2025.
Similar to this question: https://manifold.markets/EigilRischel/will-denmark-reinstate-any-covidrel | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3638606866839668, "platformFee": 0.06064344778066115, "liquidityFee": 0.3638606866839668} | 0 | 140.36386068668395 | EigilRischel | 1685644988747 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdWPMyVSqzB9j_mVrYOlsn56YOKUzkKx8onJkh=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}] | ["medicine"] | 0.1 | 1685644988473 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HKL98F9tQ5kUtKex0idH | how-many-users-will-ask-to-wipe-the | 305 | How many users will ask to wipe their betting history before June 1st? | 1654142340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.731395359985805 | True | play | 40979b8eece7 | public | 1652885465887 | Austin | See https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-all-bets-on-manifold-be-public
If you'd like to wipe your betting history, you can fill out this form: https://forms.gle/L7nmbf4oKdZXf6YH8 | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.4, "platformFee": 3.1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654145824465 | 640 | Austin | 1654127138555 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2784d171a34b", "prob": 0.060966316110349035, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8641274037740474, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.712222336629765, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HKL98F9tQ5kUtKex0idH", "createdTime": 1652885465998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 1654102986748 | 1654127135908 | {"40979b8eece7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2010971997283962 | ueChP3pt1Qz8s5m1TfKP | {"NO": 386.57099579517126, "YES": 316.8870808709408} | 1 | will-any-of-my-longterm-markets-tag | 17 | Will any of my longterm markets tagged #TechnicalAITimelines resolve by 2023? | 1659049373490 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.487368319322772 | True | play | YES | public | 1652897862770 | Vincent Luczkow | - Only the markets that exist at the time this market is created (2022-05-08)
- Longterm: resolution date in >5 years | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.745674845576309, "platformFee": 0.12427914092938484, "liquidityFee": 0.745674845576309} | 0 | 1659049373490 | 372.74567484557633 | vluzko | 1659049396588 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529441041}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455535}] | ["technical-ai-timelines", "technology-default"] | 0.15 | 1653092702893 | 1659049395099 | 0.23492979550169266 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49682448214342645 | arLjiSDkGPzygmELJa3P | {"NO": 40.142887156651256, "YES": 295.63253808830456} | 0 | will-austin-write-a-comprehensive-d | 303 | Will @Austin write a comprehensive doc about making bets publicly visible by May 31 23:59 PDT? | 1654066740000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0954759129563807 | True | play | NO | public | 1652902134873 | Jenny | https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/976520673180680272/976543805190864936 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.173951422583507, "platformFee": 0.6956585704305845, "liquidityFee": 4.173951422583507} | 0 | 1655799648579 | 104.1739514225835 | Jenny | 1654056687678 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654056687537 | 0.1182221958546659 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8067153917161788 | SKywW0iKwSwNs9fzBN3a | {"NO": 2305.782482873733, "YES": 410.9419544888144} | 1 | the-ea-consensus-does-not-acknowled | 2237.8206484646944 | The EA consensus does not acknowledge the discovery of a "Cause X" or previously unknown "Crucial Consideration" by June 1st 2023 | 1685678340000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1794836308788823 | True | play | YES | public | 1652902210974 | Quinn | Resolves "NO" if any one of
- A cause is identified and climbs to 80000hours' top "highest" or "second highest" priorities list https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/ , and at least one commenter (likely discord or EA Forum, but not limited to strictly those two) remarks that it's time between first being discussed a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9946244648829357, "platformFee": 0.29004606814045986, "liquidityFee": 1.7402764088427594} | 0 | 1686758729705 | 611.7402764088428 | Quinn | 1710207163696 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 18 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}] | ["effective-altruism", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1685670103452 | 1686680204315 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dgsbfyzf63upPPf7NT0E | how-many-likes-will-bezos-ass-get | 777.6052593866566 | How many likes will Bezo's tweet get? | 1652989440000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.692812015444423 | True | play | 08d073890e8d | public | 1652903118699 | Manifold | Important!
For an answer to be valid it must be in a range of 5,000 eg. 30-35k
Elon Musk has set himself aside from other billionaires with his troll tweeting and trying to appeal to current memes and culture. This is somwhat controversial in its own right (feel free to discuss) but it appears Jeff Bezos wants in on ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.1357896245337376, "platformFee": 1.7839474061334344, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653021266088 | 480 | Manifold | 1652987764506 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "38cb49ffb283", "prob": 0.026149803238532724, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5142067886701149, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.149680697581097, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dgsbfyzf63upPPf7NT0E", "createdTime": 1652903118769, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546041}] | ["culture-default"] | 1652987763241 | {"08d073890e8d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3328881943378486 | aTE37PFvRyNuTFNgGtgI | {"NO": 904.1970586400628, "YES": 1146.467128847647} | 0.2824088600097755 | will-an-independent-rct-study-evalu | 792.660093043492 | Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5? | 1748206740000 | 6xzKhUjgt3g8YIb4PBeZ8GVC0JE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.629782485316174 | False | basic | public | 1652903923465 | Alvaro de Menard | For a trial to be classified as "independent", it must not involve Siegfried Kasper and it must not have been funded by Wilmar Schwabe (or any related entities).
The relevant endpoint for the effect size must be the Hamilton Anxiety Scale, COVI Anxiety Scale, or another similar measure of anxiety.
Close date updated ... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.031702724464117316} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.168549353276093, "platformFee": 1.4542801466742108, "liquidityFee": 8.725680880045264} | 0 | 1000 | AlvarodeMenard | 1718589523116 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgEVA5X_xkaRlyo9gXtk2FrrHyNca-h5WcHt6zB=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530263}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736842395}] | ["science-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.10381323125561227 | 0.5 | 1718589520035 | 1653043321712 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7571712838405785 | H1okbBkzqriExLRz0Tmr | {"NO": 8169.847763152619, "YES": 1035.5652719035697} | 1 | will-the-effective-altruism-movemen | 15198.14959923085 | Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)? | 1668205941344 | xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3956894966882727 | True | basic | YES | public | 1652905395395 | Gavriel | The effective altruism (EA) movement is gathering momentum in the public eye, which will bring both extra scrutiny and extra conflict. This question is not necessarily about scandals alone, but rather is intended to get at whether something will happen that could contribute to lots of people (who might’ve otherwise bee... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.179268387432936, "platformFee": 0.612678148679581, "liquidityFee": 3.676068892077486} | 0 | 1668205941344 | 2130.2270545072543 | GavrielK | 1668575900475 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 0 | 113 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542582}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589845}] | ["effective-altruism", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1668202951948 | 1668575899906 | 0.9609371084726795 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6391621629533089 | fNhfJ7tAzmatmM7slWOL | {"NO": 319.84604060799376, "YES": 163.87479031229827} | 0.7756452292983959 | will-538s-2024-presidential-electio | 195.63851002980084 | Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish? | 1730869140000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1652905940644 | Bolton Bailey | In 2016 and 2020, the news organization FiveThirtyEight put out results from a statistical model predicting the results of the elections in those years. The 2020 model https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ came out in Early June showing Biden with a 70% chance of winning, and was frozen the day o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.017760504581533998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5232956535965968, "platformFee": 0.2021993116841613, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | BoltonBailey | 1718129069174 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498313}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582004}, {"name": "FiveThirtyEight", "slug": "fivethirtyeight", ... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "fivethirtyeight", "us-politics"] | 0.46 | 1718129066026 | 1684539680044 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4950306377806606 | BJCGEnBMuYXKBpJQTS5G | {"NO": 4059.3850203453217, "YES": 19.7320396095287} | 1 | i-will-make-it-onto-a-manifold-lead | 5306.330089774714 | I will make it onto a Manifold leaderboard by June 1st 2022, 11:59 EST | 1653431872567 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.557178356094338 | True | play | YES | public | 1652907533397 | GeorgeVii | I created my account today, 18th May, with ϻ2000.
~1000 of which is currently deployed & portfolio displaying -ϻ8 total profits.
I will likely fill out the survey for an extra ϻ500
If I appear on the leaderboard at any point this market resolves YES
May 18, 5:09pm: Oh, apparently it's EDT, my bad | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.74231197005926, "platformFee": 8.457051995009875, "liquidityFee": 50.74231197005926} | 0 | 1653431872567 | 250.7423119700593 | GeorgeVii | 1654191543859 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653431637542 | 1654191541485 | 0.9670369760084173 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02887328430448663 | 1QJWzVTkGykDlHb2EJ5P | {"NO": 123.03184430206694, "YES": 50.335051719409286} | 0 | will-this-paper-linking-enzyme-buty | 42.8783796354188 | Will this paper linking enzyme Butyrylcholinesterase levels to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) be retracted? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.041799718401396 | True | play | NO | public | 1652912254825 | Research.Bet | This market resolves to "Yes" if the paper represented by DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104041 is retracted from journal eBioMedicine (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/home) by the first week of 2023?
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.43246477706950204, "platformFee": 0.04545741751529912, "liquidityFee": 0.2727445050917947} | 0 | 1672871836394 | 120.2727445050918 | ResearchBet | 1668379796237 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529521682}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537246}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId... | ["researchbet", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.02 | 1668379796115 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | 3KqaTj1nNKfYPI3rBR4U | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-790e0c95ae23 | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652913613100 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1652913599975 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1652913613100 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1652913609556 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652913606662 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | F9nR5d5M6fD4jxdFB9mK | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-4e73b028adc9 | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652913641411 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1652913625745 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1652913641411 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1652913639145 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652913637850 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | uZUacb1Gmqtjfd8nSN7W | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-9a4850b33220 | 6 | Will this market resolve "YES?" | 1652913660566 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1652913652294 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1652913660566 | 100.32832555627375 | SayJarva | 1652913657619 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652913656267 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42860902761091646 | gkTxpcKkYKS5fnbKU78v | {"NO": 117.58636982784834, "YES": 226.8085319651143} | 0 | will-my-summer-research-project-res | 246.91569955438203 | Will my summer research project result in the publication of a paper? | 1672635540000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0751219961202128 | True | play | NO | public | 1652914007634 | Peter Berggren | I am currently working as an undergraduate researcher at MIT on a project involving galaxy-level simulations of dark matter physics, for 10 weeks of the summer, full-time. During the school year, I managed to get to a point where I have a framework partially set up for analyzing these simulations, but this framework st... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7361719891193914, "platformFee": 0.12413428843172362, "liquidityFee": 0.7448057305903417} | 0 | 1672636654642 | 180.74480573059034 | PeterBerggren | 1672636676841 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532249}] | ["science-default"] | 0.4 | 1672634789700 | 1672636673781 | 0.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5046173086719409 | 3ceLZZ6aMsAPlDFNDJHP | {"NO": 5.712960680053694, "YES": 2140.2252376208344} | 0 | will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-0a5c0d468cc1 | 2391.1528274806847 | Will total crypto market cap be above $1.3T on june 20th, according to coinmarketcap? | 1655675940000 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.168425923191458 | True | play | NO | public | 1652916415877 | Tim P | At some random time on june 20th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly.
#Crypto | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.913035735746824, "platformFee": 1.144396791286198, "liquidityFee": 6.866380747717185} | 0 | 1655731897888 | 106.86638074771717 | TimP | 1655675094929 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655675091710 | 0.010494193861282974 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7994762022159289 | KQbBmRhl57xuCma3G6Zl | {"NO": 82.97692918254066, "YES": 107.6944885469593} | 0 | do-i-have-adhd | 94.28518873578247 | Do I have ADHD? | 1658033661390 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.264415506034167 | True | play | NO | public | 1652918380451 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | I'm getting tested tomorrow. This market will resolve to the answer given in the test. As I don't know when that will get back to me, market close is set significantly in the future.
Note: if the result given is some version of "you're marginally on one side of the line", I will resolve to a prob that seems appropriat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5186327938245605, "platformFee": 0.1841059207771283, "liquidityFee": 1.1046355246627697} | 0 | 1658033661390 | 101.10463552466278 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1658033749853 | 0 | 11 | 0 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492234}] | ["olivia"] | 0.8 | 1657986026817 | 1658033742475 | 0.7544128763747315 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19743518295306264 | QDrCoyi2VvRvx8f7SXVZ | {"NO": 1353.1803056553317, "YES": 1876.6089171100612} | 0.1506629278416613 | is-it-better-for-battery-health-to | 1238.1566746259666 | Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C? | 1893571140000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.31827021242622 | False | basic | public | 1652919116488 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a simpler version of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-my-battery-redqueening-strateg", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-my-battery-redqueening... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2111976784716796, "platformFee": 0.652708386818784, "liquidityFee": 1.870187149983475} | 0 | 1482.3701871499834 | dreev | 1713879230372 | 0.3 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 16 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448074}, {"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664311519273}] | ["technology-default", "apple"] | 0.10830187622571218 | 0.5 | 1713879226957 | 1700114887247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eIdilvAdWtdj1PNyINwr | eharding-chooses-the-best-explanati | 204 | Eharding chooses the best explanation for the fall of the Western Roman Empire | 1653537540000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.801184211017975 | True | play | 534f01ad747d | public | 1652919888472 | Enopoletus Harding | Must be between 100 and 1000 words in length. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.479999999999999, "platformFee": 1.1199999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653541123081 | 440.00000000000006 | EnopoletusHarding | 1653537305506 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dbb151c2a5fd", "prob": 0.16796560064498792, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.372809886782879, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.568351055167675, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eIdilvAdWtdj1PNyINwr", "createdTime": 1652919888529, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497032}] | ["politics-default"] | 1653537305254 | 1653484284319 | {"534f01ad747d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06385626678576778 | dDfeqmR0QHI4CxnlwXx2 | {"NO": 614.9645798155243, "YES": 12144.694552984392} | 0 | will-a-blockchainbased-social-netwo | 12029.963672693506 | Will a blockchain-based social network have a million users by June 2023? | 1685573940000 | TGeqnSwTU5NDdaBwhI1HBXtDF5m2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9845791894973566 | True | play | NO | public | 1652921467270 | Wilf | Resolves yes if a social network which operates primarily on a blockchain has had at least a million users by the end of May 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7910245745763556, "platformFee": 0.31747596095394764, "liquidityFee": 1.9048557657236862} | 0 | 1686237816949 | 761.9048557657237 | wilf | 1685434127300 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwX9_z1vXQhBmwcpgQZTA2JiNdbW8SzTMGCEY58PA=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451013}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.15 | 1685434127139 | 1684685112193 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22615487797831613 | jwOvsFqTdMHmlpYhYVkF | {"NO": 1843.627680800122, "YES": 0.7683288562909638} | 1 | will-there-be-10000-or-more-confirm | 1792.8927080964531 | Will there be 10,000 or more confirmed cases of monkeypox globally before the end of 2022? | 1657641922020 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.0418982443510325 | True | play | YES | public | 1652922661393 | SG | Background: https://www.statnews.com/2022/05/17/cdc-expresses-concern-about-possibility-of-undetected-monkeypox-spread-in-u-k/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.576041701963463, "platformFee": 2.00432404333771, "liquidityFee": 12.025944260026261} | 0 | 1657641922020 | 312.02594426002617 | SG | 1657641207066 | 0 | 16 | 0 | [{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658529556395}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946151}] | ["monkeypox", "medicine"] | 0.2 | 1657641172223 | 1657641205163 | 0.9985760224326434 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6823641327021012 | JyZWkzdezxh3ldaKRVhD | {"NO": 6934.731293824233, "YES": 38.595461272620255} | 1 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-6d563f537f0d | 21254.963105088784 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $705 on May 19, 2022? | 1652986800000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3622961554920363 | True | play | YES | public | 1652923233094 | Predictor 🔥 | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.235103490360714, "platformFee": 9.205850581726786, "liquidityFee": 55.235103490360714} | 0 | 1652990434066 | 155.2351034903607 | Predictor | 1652986763849 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424978}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568393}] | ["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1652986762537 | 0.9974159776542012 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mh15kRDuBKLrkDTL6r5g | what-are-the-most-interesting-marke | 80 | What are the most interesting markets on Kalshi? | 1653289140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.859640601505027 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652925113468 | Jack | I'm experimenting with other prediction markets. Any suggestions on what markets would be interesting to take a look at on Kalshi? Resolves to market with possible adjustments based on my judgement. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653371746674 | 300 | jack | 1653267708038 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a61dd47f71aa", "prob": 0.308641975308642, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.744816305159645, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 80.0683885235576, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mh15kRDuBKLrkDTL6r5g", "createdTime": 1652925113560, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | 1653267706667 | 1653106426219 | {"c26b0085bf95": 85.26785714285714, "fd4d25327787": 14.732142857142861} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01965210520400544 | MJ7UZ60uTQ8KRVOWgObY | {"NO": 112.88299683374773, "YES": 1.4061656563978322} | 1 | will-resolve-y | 13 | Will resolve Y | 1652928969469 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.181572268936181 | True | play | YES | public | 1652928922373 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7020189975137268, "platformFee": 0.1170031662522878, "liquidityFee": 0.7020189975137268} | 0 | 1652928969469 | 100.70201899751373 | Undox | 1652928932726 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652928931575 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.505119650147781 | 6dYx4otvo1WWsCjHvgDm | {"NO": 434.49436430193805, "YES": 2052.444552952528} | 0 | in-planecrash-is-the-nefreti-in-the | 25245.873354543906 | In Planecrash, is the Nefreti in the Day 90 escape plan actually Nefreti? | 1652937607658 | 1byffozk9qMdipy9hkZI5jyIx222 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5062071179649441 | True | play | NO | public | 1652929870854 | Arete | Resolves to YES if Nefreti is actually Nefreti, and not someone else disguised, polymorphed, illusioned, etc. to appear to be Nefreti while not being Nefreti.
Resolves to YES even if it's another universe's Nefreti.
Resolves N/A if there have been no strong indications either way at time of closing.
May 19, 12:10am:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 442.7744639236266, "platformFee": 73.79574398727114, "liquidityFee": 442.7744639236266} | 0 | 1652937607658 | 547.7744639236266 | Arete | 1652937596846 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.5 | 1652937596657 | 1652930515641 | 0.20854893526112064 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zXQBDNyg9Hlrqv7lekAq | how-many-manifund-projects-will-hav | 1968.9639932711516 | How many Manifund projects will have received >$100 in funding/donations by June 15? | 1655351940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.640065238446823 | True | play | 7f4c8314c009 | public | 1652930728114 | Austin | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.009793968983505, "platformFee": 4.502448492245876, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655481336389 | 660.0000000000001 | Austin | 1655376418080 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1bbda3d55598", "prob": 0.0025532456947052625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.01377916102129874, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.382944330914075, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zXQBDNyg9Hlrqv7lekAq", "createdTime": 1652930729065, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 1655351685952 | 1655376413783 | {"7f4c8314c009": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03569496500369506 | ijaC2sPu2zx6qSc0WWDq | {"NO": 118.6405181874656, "YES": 0.37868315166738153} | 1 | test-33 | 21 | test 3^^^3 | 1652935025778 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.629105574906134 | True | play | YES | public | 1652934831608 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7490907730791856, "platformFee": 0.12484846217986426, "liquidityFee": 0.7490907730791856} | 0 | 1652935025778 | 100.74909077307919 | Electricitypipe | 1652935011347 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652935011132 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5228987551740082 | CxyDyQPwypuxRE2pbMms | {"NO": 26.804026770137234, "YES": 510.76402573950895} | 0 | will-tsla-finish-the-week-above-700 | 687.8694656659991 | Will TSLA finish the week above $700? | 1653085171511 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.346837492168245 | True | play | NO | public | 1652937111514 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if TSLA is above $700 at close of market 4pm ET 5/20/22.
Close date updated to 2022-05-20 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.33669127412226, "platformFee": 1.5561152123537103, "liquidityFee": 9.33669127412226} | 0 | 1653085171511 | 119.33669127412229 | BTE | 1653080687695 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566568}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653080686386 | 0.054387607539183376 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5299869734282594 | 2Ihr9DkI7DCjcdcezVSi | {"NO": 439.825010029792, "YES": 32.147692305113395} | 1 | va-cynarpenfu-vf-gur-frpbaq-arsergv | 438.51244552904876 | Va Cynarpenfu, vf gur frpbaq Arsergv gb nccrne va gur Qnl 90 rfpncr cyna npghnyyl Arsergv? | 1652944048970 | 6YNct3TSOCXUuSyoiPl3QTziAuu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3940856832334987 | True | play | YES | public | 1652937476631 | jacb | Rot13 title, question is spoilers for Planecrash as of May 18th 2022.
Resolve N/A if answer is unclear by market close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.150072704089218, "platformFee": 0.8583454506815363, "liquidityFee": 5.150072704089218} | 0 | 1652944048970 | 105.1500727040892 | jacb | 1652943645803 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390603}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.5 | 1652943642357 | 0.9391251304779615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3327347026887857 | Z5KGxFbNw9g3ERoHeD2w | {"NO": 130.324540360207, "YES": 3404.878157476881} | 0 | will-ev-battery-swapping-stations-e | 4004.1114930564127 | Will ev battery swapping stations exist in the US by 2024? | 1704067140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0.08448277853671882 | 1.75483920991989 | True | play | NO | public | 1652939789014 | Manifold | This technology is widespread in china and the first has just been made in Oslo according to this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61310513
This market resolves yes if there is a single publically available ev battery swapping station before 2024. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.347630091849229, "platformFee": 0.31442015071987767, "liquidityFee": 1.8865209043192661} | 0 | 1705367876798 | 461.88652090431924 | Manifold | 1705367877050 | 1.3 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 14 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450441}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128586940}] | ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13225691443178725 | 0.7 | 1703839805514 | 1681000077908 | 0.02 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5534793127332693 | GwrXCuXDrMuPrkYa0QzX | {"NO": 181.9549856281593, "YES": 86.71674859650867} | 1 | will-bitcoin-be-at-least-29000-at-1 | 452.1206624977037 | Will Bitcoin be at least $29000 at 11:59pm Friday May 20 | 1653116340000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.508939988364296 | True | play | YES | public | 1652943185181 | Alex Rockwell | As measured by coinmarketcap average price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.363905066197017, "platformFee": 1.7273175110328358, "liquidityFee": 10.363905066197017} | 0 | 1653126836172 | 110.36390506619698 | AlexRockwell | 1653126832595 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 | 1653111559945 | 1653126829243 | 0.7222903227702178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dSTPIZ0ngraaI25C7iUe | in-what-year-will-the-factors-of-rs | 39 | In what year will the factors of RSA-2048 be publicly known? | 1672556340000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.92144494010232 | True | play | 9c94d243b7a7 | public | 1652943549941 | Scott Lawrence | The RSA numbers serve as a set of large testcases for algorithms for finding large prime factors. The largest of these, RSA-2048, has never been factored. It is generally expected that it will never be factored with purely classical resources; i.e., medium-scale quantum computers will be required to find its two factor... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672572930385 | 739.9999999999999 | ScottLawrence | 1672597930217 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ca80bac6afd7", "prob": 0.5175715542673774, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.745084511553795, "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.589593273219297, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dSTPIZ0ngraaI25C7iUe", "createdTime": 1652943550008, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531113}, {"name": "Cryptography", "slug": "cryptography", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "q82xXEDGUflqiEo7cXcF", "createdTime": 1659741181245}] | ["science-default", "cryptography"] | 1668371184320 | 1672597927515 | {"9c94d243b7a7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8060236313076157 | DCDQbhudT49sSJWzHdKv | {"NO": 671.3602165960692, "YES": 70.88312681436503} | 1 | will-there-be-a-second-act-to-plane | 868.8957273273049 | Will there be a 'second act' to Planecrash? | 1653634740000 | hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.708629073828604 | True | play | YES | public | 1652943718596 | Jacob | "For reasons I'll explain once we're offscreen, it doesn't serve much of Nethys, or the Good in you, for you to help Keltham too much, in the second act of his story" https://glowfic.com/replies/1811289#reply-1811289
There is some debate over whether this will in fact take place and be something we can read.
May 19, 1... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.766011964329579, "platformFee": 0.7943353273882631, "liquidityFee": 4.766011964329579} | 0 | 1653681333951 | 104.76601196432956 | JiSK | 1653180213168 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1653180213038 | 0.9752205780197097 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19743445111891053 | DGvYJ1fpS5CQ1TRX8QJn | {"NO": 94.51448057748945, "YES": 173.15797409723115} | 0.11838033105516471 | in-planecrash-was-manohar-actually | 324.7106766745628 | In Planecrash, was Manohar actually killed when stepped on? | 1653627540000 | 1byffozk9qMdipy9hkZI5jyIx222 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.223647625412311 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652944303340 | Arete | Resolves YES if Manohar is confirmed to have died in the course of being stepped on, including if this outcome was achieved through magic cast at the same time as the stepping occurred, and including if he died and was resurrected.
Resolves NO if he is confirmed not to have died in the course of being stepped on, incl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653640430514 | 103.25051217104192 | Arete | 1653565027867 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391524}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.2 | 1653565026577 | 0.11838033105516471 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7499300408453743 | lO9XezwkfxqRoBthAqjb | {"NO": 98.59621105907361, "YES": 101.10225670866444} | 0.7451935211719187 | if-manifold-create-api-capable-of-l | 16 | If Manifold create API capable of leaving comments, it will still be public two weeks later | 1656284340000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6836962981024466 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652958388482 | Jonathan Nankivell | This will resolve YES iff the API is publicly available, official and documented two weeks after first being made publicly available, official and documented.
To bet on whether this API will be made at all:
https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-8a7c7fb66e1b
May 19, 10:27pm: This w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660213151452 | 100.2348366763244 | JonathanNankivell | 1660076444251 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1656228492961 | 1660076445370 | 0.7451935211719187 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24627664231038918 | 6vhtmVLX9F06ANAXT3ER | {"NO": 39.041973951395484, "YES": 1337.5117364417586} | 0 | will-there-be-1000000-diagnosed-cas | 5670.182892649664 | Will there be 1,000,000 diagnosed cases of monkeypox in 2022? | 1672549140000 | C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.403534168465975 | True | play | NO | public | 1652958517107 | phil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether the 2022 calendar year will have seen >= 1,000,000 new, diagnosed cases of monkeypox. Count ends on December 31st, 23:59 GMT.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.01930601503733, "platformFee": 2.1417847679439452, "liquidityFee": 12.850708607663668} | 0 | 1673450878639 | 132.8507086076637 | huot3000 | 1673018495027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi7K_xxxU-sqQ94W8v3zvD5d5YajvbpLwDK5Aulvg=s96-c | 42 | 0 | 3 | 37 | [{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1660362367744}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601093}, {"name": "Medicine... | ["world-default", "medicine", "monkeypox", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1671513363716 | 1673018489144 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tHw10pYOJM8n1PtIkRw9 | what-will-be-my-favorite-question-o | 90 | What will be my favorite question on this AMA? | 1653019140000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.84818841182032 | True | play | MKT | public | 1652964251467 | Austin | Ask me questions below, and I'll answer them inline! Anything is fair game.
After market close, I'll pick out my favorite questions and distribute the mana somehow, with at least 50% to the top choice. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.72, "platformFee": 1.43, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653021430875 | 500 | Austin | 1658490641583 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "77a9ae669902", "prob": 0.2770083102493075, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.479168668775973, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.790630225505296, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tHw10pYOJM8n1PtIkRw9", "createdTime": 1652964251816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1653013981171 | 1658490637073 | {"8dadcdb04fc9": 20, "c6bc158cbdde": 30, "ffb6edab4495": 50} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47420778501813965 | tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif | {"NO": 1133.628528586368, "YES": 851.4793572938984} | 0.5456086382258941 | will-ukrainian-government-accept-a | 30782.35918026005 | Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk) | 2650165140000 | 2I06F6GnhrealrFV7kzKAcd06oy1 | cpmm-1 | 1.539095918623324e-16 | 8.706302016643713 | False | basic | public | 1652964917154 | Anton T | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.013608139433615607, "month": -0.21125168150885754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.2121014095737, "platformFee": 3.3724463547268972, "liquidityFee": 1.323763653120051} | 0 | 1135.0419856012895 | AntonT | 1719668281896 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghc3gEzloKrfpqSf7bjlSMBkFXcQ8aqcFW4zj1bpg=s96-c | 6 | 236 | 1 | 150 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "2I06F6GnhrealrFV7kzKAcd06oy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664856294179}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "2I06F6GnhrealrFV7kzKAcd06oy1", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664856288665}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w... | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "wars", "ukraine", "russia", "geopolitics", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.1402587622817866 | 0.5 | 1719668278779 | 1710181479603 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5009110926251108 | OyfLUuXyy3niqP1tWlGH | {"NO": 32.269944721519096, "YES": 320.68020642091017} | 0 | will-there-be-an-easy-way-to-see-al | 1032.3919721622096 | Will there be an easy way to see all positions on a market by 2022-08-26 | 1661572740000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3601334633805022 | True | play | NO | public | 1652965034354 | Martin Randall | Resolves yes if I can easily see a list of one or more of:
- Username: 153 shares of Yes
- Username: m5 on Yes (either expected value or sale price)
If the "bets" tab replaces "a trader" with usernames, that doesn't suffice, as it doesn't easily tell me what everyone's current positions are.
Small print: I will not t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.266104085153035, "platformFee": 0.16165406643084554, "liquidityFee": 0.9699243985850732} | 0 | 1661611016046 | 100.96992439858508 | MartinRandall | 1661604236947 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1660089246139}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqd... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1661566932319 | 1661604232979 | 0.09173237405847003 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5356725381299563 | vVQt719T8VOdBso0IxEE | {"NO": 1472.7135740354693, "YES": 11.483201720674316} | 1 | will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak | 1467.6772538934715 | Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach more than 100 infections, before 20.07.22? | 1653148424074 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.017869558456254 | True | play | YES | public | 1652967513141 | Tim P | Will the current monkeypox outbreak grow to more than 100 infections, before 20.07.22?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak
#Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox
Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm
#World | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.643722398554492, "platformFee": 0.9406203997590821, "liquidityFee": 5.643722398554492} | 0 | 1653148424074 | 105.64372239855446 | TimP | 1653150563417 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422520}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536071}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o... | ["science-default", "world-default", "medicine", "monkeypox"] | 0.5 | 1653148185947 | 1653150559731 | 0.9314555009415743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7503275593531054 | BprR3sT5M9o6dwuIwTPV | {"NO": 141.99884842463638, "YES": 90.45241085217519} | 0 | will-i-show-up-to-dd-on-may-22 | 46 | Will I show up to D&D on May 22? | 1653255345790 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.692729743747975 | True | play | NO | public | 1652968081009 | Ray Doraisamy | This is a campaign with old gaming friends who I have not spent quality time with in years. So far, I have missed the first two sessions. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6162690572957267, "platformFee": 0.10271150954928779, "liquidityFee": 0.6162690572957267} | 0 | 1653255345790 | 100.61626905729574 | RayDoraisamy | 1653255362744 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 1653188826062 | 1653255359938 | 0.8251093668173016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6673954018702296 | uqc9CblKWqlLhxz0NSJd | {"NO": 1753.0838645500426, "YES": 29.9877755937614} | 1 | will-zvi-bet-or-create-a-market-on | 1745.159440706891 | Will Zvi bet or create a market on Manifold this week? | 1653337331187 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.492713335515214 | True | play | YES | public | 1652971885274 | Austin | He indicated some interest around eg baby formula markets, but also may be busy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.042211357195281, "platformFee": 1.3403685595325472, "liquidityFee": 8.042211357195281} | 0 | 1653337331187 | 108.04221135719533 | Austin | 1653352424968 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.65 | 1653336092459 | 1653352423131 | 0.9915472116259717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7498186177462232 | wTtd91jQsmx9l5BeD2pD | {"NO": 79.79663443901353, "YES": 108.93548828514658} | 1 | will-cantors-phone-battery-last-til | 9 | Will Cantor's phone battery last till he gets home? | 1653029940000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6865788042288763 | True | play | YES | public | 1652974945750 | Daniel Reeves | Currently 5% but has old crappy Beeminder charger | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3870702891205682, "platformFee": 0.06451171485342803, "liquidityFee": 0.3870702891205682} | 0 | 1653033731078 | 100.38707028912057 | dreev | 1653029631577 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1653029630333 | 0.6870515021290572 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1506123604983085 | 6WTmpKCdPbsa09MTvSST | {"NO": 910.489829678506, "YES": 1357.016456139541} | 0.10632256722718068 | will-elon-musk-have-been-on-at-leas | 403.8087541458644 | Will Elon Musk have been on at least one date with Kim Kardashian by 2030? | 1925020740000 | C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.921424893559202 | False | basic | public | 1652975812796 | phil | This market resolves as "Yes" if a date is reported in media (mainstream new outlet, social platforms) by Dec. 31st, 2030. | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.008798553577002557} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3977137221153093, "platformFee": 0.6584685963970022, "liquidityFee": 2.3650512390607976} | 0 | 1000 | huot3000 | 1718636507208 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi7K_xxxU-sqQ94W8v3zvD5d5YajvbpLwDK5Aulvg=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3"}] | ["culture-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1718636504064 | 1697236897803 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5768176574028988 | B4pexsst5n34KiESkNyr | {"NO": 211.83980475521838, "YES": 133.37737157106307} | 0 | an-org-founded-via-an-ftx-future-fu | 179.18921689771906 | An org founded via an FTX Future Fund grant has headcount >= 15 by December 31st 2022 | 1672549140000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 1.6996150398665153 | True | play | NO | public | 1652977080415 | Quinn | "Resolving org must:
- Not have existed before receiving FTX Future Fund grant
- Provide enough information about headcount _publically_ to ascertain whether they resolve this market
Members of the group of 15+ employees may:
- be contractors, but ""defactor fulltime"" as subjectively ascertained by public informatio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.702345757405665, "platformFee": 0.450390959567611, "liquidityFee": 2.702345757405665} | 0 | 1676438137136 | 162.70234575740568 | Quinn | 1676438130986 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 14 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071587}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1668852037143 | 1676438127150 | 0.68 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.536680469508147 | JK75SXfbpgE4PbIvsRDD | {"NO": 563.7258860928919, "YES": 31.60476300723053} | 1 | will-i-take-a-dose-of-saxenda-on-th-2bd360445406 | 1045.506668807177 | Will I take a dose of Saxenda on the day of market close? | 1653807540000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3831387013993237 | True | play | YES | public | 1652978930150 | Rai | See my previous market for probability of getting Saxenda refill, which ended up working out. Now I have the medicine, but am running low on needles - I have needles for 7 more days - i.e. until May 26.
I might be able to just walk into a pharmacy and buy them, but I might need to get a prescription, which would make ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.21632828083029, "platformFee": 1.7027213801383825, "liquidityFee": 10.21632828083029} | 0 | 1653810779028 | 110.21632828083031 | agentydragon | 1653617292408 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653617290967 | 1653451250172 | 0.9538340072496697 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | 33BykAzYHL7ixTpgqbPg | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-6186f38b4647 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1652984305339 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1652984296989 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1652984305339 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1652984302473 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652984301270 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9872713044733039 | DBBrT1VQF5sBcFzvFbnM | {"NO": 0.7816242587056506, "YES": 105.97162736458769} | 0 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-e0261f895b54 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1652984330003 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.656825899771917 | True | play | NO | public | 1652984318493 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17023581247393033, "platformFee": 0.028372635412321722, "liquidityFee": 0.17023581247393033} | 0 | 1652984330003 | 100.17023581247393 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1652984325320 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652984324064 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9872713044733039 | XdFbDFt6rHLH823HjBro | {"NO": 0.7816242587056506, "YES": 105.97162736458769} | 0 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-c1edc13b8bb6 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1652984363841 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.656825899771917 | True | play | NO | public | 1652984345573 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17023581247393033, "platformFee": 0.028372635412321722, "liquidityFee": 0.17023581247393033} | 0 | 1652984363841 | 100.17023581247393 | SayJarva | 1652984350937 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1652984349590 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01710897628299295 | hKdFPjgro1rThWCG72yg | {"NO": 107.89297790031198, "YES": 1.3734741577927871} | 1 | does-manifold-still-have-a-freemone | 910 | Does Manifold still have a free-money exploit? | 1652984522403 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.356746238683844 | True | play | YES | public | 1652984437719 | Peter Berggren | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7264360228129498, "platformFee": 0.12107267046882499, "liquidityFee": 0.7264360228129498} | 0 | 1652984522403 | 100.72643602281293 | PeterBerggren | 1653105883734 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.01 | 1652984515236 | 1653105882622 | 0.0009876819167073821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33 | hc79jydHsqkAHEenjaO1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.33 | will-pharasma-feature-prominently-i | 0 | Will Pharasma feature prominently in the plot of Planecrash? | 1652987805332 | v0CLvsusyUfPcTKlU1cD0t8szKg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1349940323832897 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652987375305 | Yafah Edelman | This market resolves to YES if Pharasma ends up playing an important role in the plot of Planecrash. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652987805332 | 100 | YafahEdelman | 1652987375305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5U2qG9PuuzeYFQ3soc50IKG8q2nYtTIbAerOWTdw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393196}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546658}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 0.33 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6463378461138051 | aMpwggkWZWFmMI4k3Nag | {"NO": 18898.700463155474, "YES": 180.0810014471898} | 1 | will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma | 44904.64232847348 | Will >2000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June? | 1654047332164 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2570182579215725 | True | play | YES | public | 1652991491717 | GeorgeVii | Parimutuel markets that end so close to the resolution suck for traders, so I made this one.
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm
May 19, 7:17pm: See the >1000 USD market here: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-1000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://man... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 333.6636598866359, "platformFee": 55.610609981105995, "liquidityFee": 333.6636598866359} | 0 | 1654047332164 | 633.6636598866363 | GeorgeVii | 1654191956680 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654047092122 | 1654191953114 | 0.9945621650415959 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.030025668236389916 | ouz9T0vJWG0RLmE8DNCH | {"NO": 105.64706434911541, "YES": 18.30278700728216} | 0.1515923316697221 | will-yud-finish-the-hpmor-epilogue | 6 | Will Yud finish the HPMOR epilogue | 1656647940000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.939433434309953 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1652992640723 | Sinclair Chen | Now that Yudkowsky has moved on from direct work in saving the world from the AI apocalypse, will he revisit a certain character who has similarly passed on the hero mantle?
Resolves to YES, NO, or PROB as soon as someone can get Yudkowsky to say his chance of finishing it (say, in next 5 years)
Resolves N/A if I can'... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656891482723 | 100.1150610819483 | Sinclair | 1656612852615 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 1656612851373 | 0.15159233166972214 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.503803073574206 | Fsg8feSda9J90kcCOidH | {"NO": 1920.9903837252286, "YES": 8.65839685924766} | 1 | in-the-planecrash-glowfic-continuit | 2291.7890930267317 | In the planecrash glowfic continuity, (rot13) vf Noebtnvy Guehar univat n frperg onol jvgu Xrygunz? | 1657415629388 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.974161641891467 | True | play | YES | public | 1652994971998 | Tetra | Jun 27, 9:45am: ROT13: is Abrogail Thrune having a secret baby with Keltham? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.14265056495591, "platformFee": 2.199450095941051, "liquidityFee": 13.19670057564631} | 0 | 1657415629388 | 113.19670057564632 | Tetraspace | 1656887105370 | 0 | 18 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391765}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542513}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1656887105218 | 1656877545303 | 0.9955804108676038 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3540375656400516 | zKgioXwecJ0nURSPgcuO | {"NO": 410.84902900798227, "YES": 103.65863024134518} | 1 | will-manifold-get-rid-of-the-colore | 780.2144231379898 | Will Manifold get rid of the colored probability bars shown on markets in the home feed before midday on June 20th, 2022? | 1654531165449 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6608073563492334 | True | play | YES | public | 1652996327194 | Matt P | This market resolves to YES if the colored probability bars shown on markets in the home feed are gone or substantially modified away from that 3-word definition (aka they are no longer colored, or no longer bars that are showing probability, etc) by noon Texas time on June 20th.
May 20, 6:31am: to clarify, if they ch... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.687864739456316, "platformFee": 2.781310789909386, "liquidityFee": 16.687864739456316} | 0 | 1654531165449 | 236.6878647394563 | MattP | 1654531333841 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.33 | 1654458279979 | 1654531331008 | 0.6847708444719695 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6947499779899138 | L2HWbhHzfzk894lO70Qw | {"NO": 8532.6391396308, "YES": 64.6694530749486} | 1 | will-1000-usd-be-donated-through-ma | 12455.575165597873 | Will >1000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June? | 1654047312550 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.650439088386278 | True | play | YES | public | 1652997110486 | GeorgeVii | Decided to make another.
The >2000 USD market is here:
https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
May 19, 7:17pm: Resolution using the number at the top of this page: https://manifold.markets/charity | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 91.8521418540716, "platformFee": 15.308690309011931, "liquidityFee": 91.8521418540716} | 0 | 1654047312550 | 191.8521418540715 | GeorgeVii | 1654045262433 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654045262208 | 1653593793867 | 0.9966810617102411 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | q0bUNy8r23YtFFrz2FYE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-posting-this-market-and-lookin | 0 | Will posting this market and looking at the network request help me fix the code I'm working on? | 1652997303052 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.967372415006668 | True | play | YES | public | 1652997267124 | Marshall Polaris | I assume it will; that's why I'm posting it! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1652997303052 | 100 | mqp | 1652997267124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888107}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.95 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6484826857248938 | J4gJKbIG5ebW3ZzSq9tp | {"NO": 74.9854451411801, "YES": 121.2556258967642} | 0 | will-the-temperature-in-new-delhi-h | 40 | Will the temperature in New Delhi hit 115°F during June 2022? | 1654055940000 | vP9bD7fNnKWXiCDCF5prsPT8wuj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0176755741059225 | True | play | NO | public | 1652997625097 | Steve | Regions of India and Pakistan are enduring a brutal heatwave that has already killed dozens of people. New Delhi's April 2022 high was 110°F and its May 2022 high is 114°F so far. What will June bring? Its June 2021 high was 109°F. Its June 2020 high was 108°F. Its June 2019 high was 113°F.
I'll resolve this market... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2050611029295857, "platformFee": 0.20084351715493093, "liquidityFee": 1.2050611029295857} | 0 | 1656887405175 | 101.20506110292958 | steve | 1654016928157 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416095}] | ["world-default"] | 0.65 | 1654016928032 | 0.5328947768060549 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5019005686469031 | 1YkbjPcBhWwXBK1vukJj | {"NO": 149.79748414094462, "YES": 70.24241375832824} | 0 | will-the-warp-blog-challenge-distri | 58.90515959447336 | Will the WARP Blog Challenge distribute prizes to those who win the first season? | 1672531140000 | BuxHqL4uGvbR5vNAt7oCRt3if7C3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7961575706677437 | True | play | NO | public | 1653001485688 | Tunan Shi | This market will resolve to "YES" if prizes of any form are announced to be given out (to the first season of WARP Blog Challenge winners), before the end of January 2023.
This market will resolve to "NO" otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2150951543323278, "platformFee": 0.20251585905538794, "liquidityFee": 1.2150951543323278} | 0 | 1675606579922 | 101.21509515433233 | TunanShi | 1667245184742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikXvpMwHZoY4YvRiyps751WFzwuuthxpoC6LfANg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 1667245184546 | 0.68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5212745606470921 | 8SlNrZ73v56OpHkDSQBq | {"NO": 1142.416894394548, "YES": 103.91211304853326} | 1 | the-contents-of-this-riseup-pad-htt | 1099.3822243986012 | The contents of this riseup pad https://pad.riseup.net/p/fizzbuzz-python-keep will compile in python and be a correct fizzbuzz implementation on July 1st 2022 | 1656734340000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5691807141875285 | True | play | YES | public | 1653005057722 | Quinn | A riseup pad is a lightweight, anonymous, and ephemeral alternative to google docs. You can view the history of the pad by clicking the timepiece-looking icon on the top right corner. The pad will disappear forever if it goes 365 days without an edit.
If a vandal of some kind erases or nonsensizes the contents of the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.26072402372295, "platformFee": 2.32810400819315, "liquidityFee": 13.968624049158898} | 0 | 1656961824102 | 313.96862404915885 | Quinn | 1656961818564 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656713571155 | 1656961817021 | 0.9229062580748801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47765466591860534 | HvLrbgGMUajgwkkH2DBe | {"NO": 201.94061301997695, "YES": 199.99705359651165} | 1 | will-i-get-covid-by-end-of-year | 20 | Will I get COVID by end of year? | 1657642698333 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.618398568667712 | True | play | YES | public | 1653009881755 | Rahul Sridhar | This market resolves YES if I ever test positive for COVID-19 by market close. I live in the Bay Area, work in-person, have stopped masking unless required. To my knowledge I have never had Covid. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6044656573078679, "platformFee": 0.10074427621797799, "liquidityFee": 0.6044656573078679} | 0 | 1657642698333 | 200.60446565730786 | fortenforge | 1657642691936 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653171135240 | 1657642689963 | 0.4800680959791919 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019572194865914848 | czyVvudV3bnzUOQztmBd | {"NO": 127.74799999997366, "YES": 3.024000032007997} | 1 | is-printing-m-possible | 28 | Is printing M$ possible? | 1653010505225 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.062523077530438 | True | play | YES | public | 1653010472425 | Scott Lawrence | This market will resolve to YES. I am initializing it with P=0%, but will bet M$28 on YES as soon as it opens. Since I'm using my daily free market, I expect to make a return of nearly M$100 for no effort. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5120000001580944, "platformFee": 0.25200000002634915, "liquidityFee": 1.5120000001580944} | 0 | 1653010505225 | 101.5120000001581 | ScottLawrence | 1653079892253 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653010479706 | 1653079890150 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34645828609282453 | PwX0fa4chWoLKXTk0ATR | {"NO": 58.08690845137009, "YES": 309.69056719197636} | 0 | will-a-karlin-write-a-retrospective | 210 | Will A. Karlin write a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month? | 1654054544113 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3179997443589135 | True | play | NO | public | 1653012656339 | Enopoletus Harding | This market will resolve to Yes if A. Karlin writes a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month. It will resolve to No if he does not.
https://akarlin.substack.com | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8565968481415402, "platformFee": 0.30943280802359, "liquidityFee": 1.8565968481415402} | 0 | 1654054544113 | 101.85659684814154 | EnopoletusHarding | 1654053464652 | 0 | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529485149}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226664}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.35 | 1654053464492 | False | 0.09043975840360183 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.511625922793476 | yEpzTYy9qu5YnBxXzaP5 | {"NO": 197.41481385250032, "YES": 61.07106885764448} | 0.7720250062098295 | will-manifold-surpass-metaculus-in | 185 | Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025? | 1767254340000 | C8BXeR5DKTebygNeEPEB9Qt3u6k1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653018346476 | phil | This market resolves to "yes" if Manifold has more daily active users than Metaculus at some point in 2025. | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.166201815207721, "platformFee": 0.6943669692012869, "liquidityFee": 4.166201815207721} | 0 | 104.16620181520773 | huot3000 | 1704070579670 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi7K_xxxU-sqQ94W8v3zvD5d5YajvbpLwDK5Aulvg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.5 | 1653578742373 | 1704070578743 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9609397809128959 | cU5XcYo64rMZ3tHt3WDq | {"NO": 0.003234759362954555, "YES": 159.88967752141983} | 0 | test-a90abadb1f82 | 180 | test | 1653020818589 | CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.447089652836757 | True | play | NO | public | 1653020632756 | Jack2 | Testing how liquidity works with extreme starting probabilities. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.970634298905318, "platformFee": 0.9951057164842199, "liquidityFee": 5.970634298905318} | 0 | 1653020818589 | 105.97063429890531 | Jack2 | 1653020801560 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.99 | 1653020799939 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22229942315811083 | fzvDKCUdEQSq0M4YQWrd | {"NO": 185.36491374092793, "YES": 1323.203957630232} | 0 | will-planecrash-reach-dath-ilan-by | 2189.033442585302 | Will Planecrash reach dath ilan by the end of the continuity? | 1684641540000 | 1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0344959244430054 | True | play | NO | public | 1653021099051 | Numendil | Resolves YES if, by the conclusion of the glowfic continuity 'planecrash', two-way travel or communication has been established between Keltham's Golarion and any instance of dath ilan.
Resolves N/A if the continuity is still ongoing and the YES condition has not been reached by May 20, 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.879264319177388, "platformFee": 1.733785141151597, "liquidityFee": 10.40271084690958} | 0 | 1684773074458 | 310.4027108469096 | Numendil | 1684588948298 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1684588948104 | 1658776396455 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2nHacyckosTxJyyHY1eN | who-will-visit-me-in-june | 10 | Who will visit me in June? | 1656395071247 | eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | 9ffc7bcab5ab | public | 1653021535903 | Emmy | - I live in Ohio
- I have a spare bedroom available to visitors indefinitely
- I have recently started seeking visitors again
- I do not generally require that visitors be people I personally know
- 50% of visitors are historically trans
- No visitors are currently planned, though my mom has expressed that she misses m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.36, "platformFee": 1.09, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656395071247 | 280 | emmy | 1656394611401 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3931e24dcdb1", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.02153696643121, "userId": "eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.134522762950551, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2nHacyckosTxJyyHY1eN", "createdTime": 1653021535982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1656394610063 | {"9ffc7bcab5ab": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.536981288000794 | G4Y9DC5wC9sG4foDAMrs | {"NO": 888.1583892492843, "YES": 17.66034843268387} | 1 | will-i-make-it-onto-the-top-bettors | 789 | Will I make it onto the top bettors leaderboard by the end of May? | 1653030672737 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.294594066740089 | True | play | YES | public | 1653022702939 | Jack | Resolves YES if at any point during May I appear on the top bettors leaderboard*
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/i-will-make-it-onto-a-manifold-lead
My portfolio currently shows as just under 2000 total profit. It was at about 1100 at the beginning of today. I'll have some interesting things to say abo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.049664504294305, "platformFee": 0.8416107507157174, "liquidityFee": 5.049664504294305} | 0 | 1653030672737 | 105.0496645042943 | jack | 1653629676408 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653030376954 | 1653629674279 | 0.9280902608034082 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QhekS3bhumM8nH25enhQ | how-will-putin-retaliate-against-th | 620.279623797605 | How will Putin retaliate against the US after Biden officially authorizes nearly $60B in new military aid for Ukraine? | 1656647940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.717413049700092 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653025181136 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolution will be determined based on actions taken by Russia directly against US persons or property. Be creative with responses. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.333466595148018, "platformFee": 4.083366648787004, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656878758652 | 759.9999999999999 | BTE | 1657316868650 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b292906c6bf6", "prob": 0.046503714206563615, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6524493348454405, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.377598500631594, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QhekS3bhumM8nH25enhQ", "createdTime": 1653025181194, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486086}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226676}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1655606964074 | 1657316867302 | False | {"0c1936efc323": 6.147962221118173, "46ed2386cd8d": 38.6471549030285, "75547d4ac818": 14.802946510007533, "7cb925b8b4b5": 18.40696678849158, "96dd3ab345df": 14.4678262097562, "d5b7526c7cc8": 7.527143367598011} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45533896361649356 | RbR2gsP4CAaR2sRgIuoz | {"NO": 16.367302793743846, "YES": 979.2985754594204} | 0.01377984631562718 | will-manifolds-free-money-exploit-n | 880 | Will Manifold's "free money" exploit not exist at the month? | 1653033333855 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.486219926071307 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653031218026 | GeorgeVii | May 20, 3:21am: Sry I screwed up the title. Fuck it, I'll keep the negative "not exist".
Manifold has a free money exploit. I won't tell you what it is, you can work it out.
If this market still exists I will resolve it YES if said exploit does NOT exist at the end of the month.
May 20, 4:05am: On second thoughts ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653033333855 | 104.20854724347728 | GeorgeVii | 1653033183680 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653033182317 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01966069015563046 | SIDXnwtcWmj5JF013mQO | {"NO": 113.87399858686928, "YES": 1.512991229976808} | 1 | -33d06ccf5ae5 | 14 | Δ | 1653041385937 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.172029808670167 | True | play | YES | public | 1653041309716 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7560084787844042, "platformFee": 0.12600141313073404, "liquidityFee": 0.7560084787844042} | 0 | 1653041385937 | 100.75600847878441 | Undox | 1653041376930 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653041375460 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5305173883856342 | 5i7L4vLX9RJ5LGBinblJ | {"NO": 194.25735469980773, "YES": 187.8546429344944} | 0.538855706876459 | conditional-on-such-a-study-being-r | 163.7896790176673 | Conditional on such a study being run, will an independent RCT evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size equal to or greater than 0.3? | 1748213940000 | FebmYaXJmudUl8fwK56RbYQJG2E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653043182204 | Eigil Rischel | See this ACX post for general context: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety?s=r
"Independent" will be defined as in this related question: https://manifold.markets/AlvarodeMenard/will-an-independent-rct-study-evalu
Essentially, this question is supposed to be exactly like that ques... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07114429312354065} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7054514839392922, "platformFee": 0.18762940004363654, "liquidityFee": 1.1257764002618191} | 0 | 191.1257764002618 | EigilRischel | 1718517202941 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdWPMyVSqzB9j_mVrYOlsn56YOKUzkKx8onJkh=s96-c | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522843}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1718517199875 |
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