p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.4662542255793953 | enZfn7lSBOOu5fp1DbDq | {"NO": 1683.6063653064912, "YES": 5.583066126984965} | 1 | will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak-ecd890444a93 | 3167.678433755399 | Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach >2000 infections? | 1655247089192 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.227328600469569 | True | play | YES | public | 1653043745221 | Tim P | The number seems a good proxy for whether it grows out of control or not.
Context:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak
#Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science
May 20, 12:49pm: So yes I will resolve when the threshold is reached, or the outbrake seem to be over. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.461767945095842, "platformFee": 2.076961324182642, "liquidityFee": 12.461767945095842} | 0 | 1655247089192 | 112.46176794509586 | TimP | 1655247012639 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 22 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419912}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531532}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o... | ["science-default", "world-default", "medicine", "monkeypox"] | 0.37 | 1655247012409 | 1655246964878 | 0.9849307974909831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.320223571261844 | q5QIzHUKaOLF4A0lFzAD | {"NO": 226.91284165073284, "YES": 22.291344748485102} | 1 | will-tiger-woods-make-the-cut-at-th | 322.34942233428956 | Will Tiger Woods make the cut at the PGA championship? | 1653095807205 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6442971969476003 | True | play | YES | public | 1653044871397 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves yes if Woods makes it to the weekend pairings. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4264160898655875, "platformFee": 0.737736014977598, "liquidityFee": 4.4264160898655875} | 0 | 1653095807205 | 104.42641608986558 | BTE | 1653095589943 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408249}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.3 | 1653095588704 | 0.8274444783752988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19827299983493385 | liMn0sOwxFk0NlzBchsU | {"NO": 867.7326990463879, "YES": 1181.399178148664} | 0.15372301590384177 | will-the-nutritional-mix-for-baby-f | 317.39126509858676 | Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ? | 2695089540000 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0530403505950638 | 9.799600464630675 | False | basic | public | 1653052811160 | Ray Doraisamy | Currently, infant formula is said (this statement is in itself a bet that if we were to poll a thousand people randomly in a Western democracy, a majority would say that professionally-made baby formula is necessary for survival when breastmilk is unavailable) to require a mix that only some companies can manufacture, ... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.03876955568697, "platformFee": 0.22152957252855385, "liquidityFee": 1.329177435171323} | 0 | 1000 | RayDoraisamy | 1713843913988 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533161}] | ["science-default"] | 0.1090577509320219 | 0.88 | 1712673627713 | 1713843913444 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.047589835397559004 | dllvGFLrMPaQvvbLisA8 | {"NO": 149.7468300496201, "YES": 0.041510566015683995} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-yes-15-m | 50 | This question will resolve YES 15 minutes after it closes | 1653061500000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.275439380142124 | True | play | YES | public | 1653055267064 | Matt P | (see title)
Close date updated to 2022-05-20 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-20 10:45 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5190197022797531, "platformFee": 0.2531699503799589, "liquidityFee": 1.5190197022797531} | 0 | 1653069397112 | 101.51901970227975 | MattP | 1653057712926 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1653055477375 | 1653057709796 | 0.9944829341016163 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1vPNbyfApATSUob1dTSY | what-projectbuilding-event-will-i-m | 24878.257181038687 | What project-building event will I make happen first? | 1653880035872 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.617429001150822 | True | play | 8f5346d57abe | public | 1653059625538 | Joel Becker | it would be great to have project-building events at ea bahamas! which will happen first? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.41991975340295, "platformFee": 16.354979938350738, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653880035872 | 660 | JoelBecker | 1653880013247 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0aa448952f94", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1vPNbyfApATSUob1dTSY", "createdTime": 1653059625683, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 1653880013072 | 1653588101918 | {"8f5346d57abe": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DjWYxTRrZZXSXpvnWocH | what-major-projects-will-manifold-t | 2289.180922223816 | What major projects will Manifold tackle in June? | 1656647940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6411051957304785 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653062185810 | Austin | As we go into June planning, it's time to consider: what major projects should we take on? There are a lot of ideas floating around, so we'd like to use PREDICTION MARKETS to help us decide.
Resolves relative to the number of dev-days we end up spending on each of the listed projects in June. For context, I'd guess we... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.36579472443148914, "platformFee": 0.09144868110787228, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680825969538 | 2039.9999999999995 | Austin | 1680826030733 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 24 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a295b5abb2c0", "prob": 0.0027735297393760234, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.007868264341741583, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.8290453731921223, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DjWYxTRrZZXSXpvnWocH", "createdTime": 1653062186014, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661416974024}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1656536853441 | 1680826028311 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20079254616732312 | bzpMOpYl7PUzlwBC106P | {"NO": 118.50414658591495, "YES": 1032.2932384658639} | 0 | will-california-fire-season-be-wors | 1093.0153115165685 | Will California fire season be worse this year than last year? | 1667361540000 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.162902312690013 | True | play | NO | public | 1653066094966 | BCG | Closes November 1 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.426841926871594, "platformFee": 0.41288017349919914, "liquidityFee": 2.4772810409951944} | 0 | 1667480098039 | 222.4772810409952 | BruceGrugett | 1667357946177 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530577}, {"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1663748728708}] | ["science-default", "california"] | 0.5 | 1667357946010 | 1665768237301 | 0.02803302939810859 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38161628300741623 | vHGCQPkxriJX6OhvgooL | {"NO": 18.69772970838801, "YES": 2058.0687848563593} | 0 | will-one-of-either-the-us-uk-austra | 2152.3806953313756 | Will one of either the US, UK, Australia or Canada close borders or ban flights to any countries due to the monkeypox virus? | 1656111600000 | YijiG6QeVjUY2DYNZR0QcNQDYv62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.9197525754787526 | True | play | NO | public | 1653067139206 | Jonathan | This market resolves to YES if this happens and is published on a government webpage that references monkeypox being a significant factor in this.
Close date updated to 2022-06-25 12:00 am | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.884492843361553, "platformFee": 1.0491056207554306, "liquidityFee": 6.294633724532582} | 0 | 1656119298676 | 106.29463372453257 | JonathanL | 1656109097003 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw_UqBwaD96L53fpSjTMbFoy9-ShX4dmHyalp9n=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422450}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946151}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hr... | ["world-default", "medicine", "monkeypox", "australia"] | 0.4 | 1656109095271 | 1653514891474 | 0.0055753192158248845 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5496903507433666 | gjLmWuSDs8cwyF62WkVT | {"NO": 744.5735969288625, "YES": 23.587596727841564} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-to-yes-w | 1414.5030511613072 | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. (start 50%) | 1653109140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9072351039790862 | True | play | YES | public | 1653070204234 | Matt P | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.933430679306459, "platformFee": 1.15557177988441, "liquidityFee": 6.933430679306459} | 0 | 1653133981268 | 106.93343067930647 | MattP | 1653108032492 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653108029473 | 0.9747045621697313 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13751017138519955 | m6Cyk3vdUJ4l4bkjzExU | {"NO": 300.11066999992016, "YES": 0.8046847457291513} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-to-yes-w-84875e656a63 | 201 | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. | 1653109140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.808607904724866 | True | play | YES | public | 1653070286637 | Matt P | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. (start 5%) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3359800004785685, "platformFee": 0.8893300000797615, "liquidityFee": 5.3359800004785685} | 0 | 1653134033213 | 105.33598000047857 | MattP | 1653108037596 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1653108034206 | 0.9834605735596146 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9484431228582687 | ynhRDFHu5RxQsguTnPes | {"NO": 311.94418976392683, "YES": 103.19712546924056} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-to-yes-w-9b4d6a7700c0 | 1272.321799496428 | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. | 1653109140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.604803310481017 | True | play | YES | public | 1653070334403 | Matt P | This question will resolve to YES within a day of closing. (start 95%) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.65325480128563, "platformFee": 0.7755424668809384, "liquidityFee": 4.65325480128563} | 0 | 1653133999676 | 104.65325480128563 | MattP | 1653108034397 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.95 | 1653108031472 | 0.9823345210125832 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4946904854708304 | Gridp1qytamtiG1sObr9 | {"NO": 67.65356871771516, "YES": 163.37604143075072} | 0.2884562870408725 | will-anonymous3141-get-a-first-in-f | 113.09838008680494 | Will anonymous3141 get a first in first year maths at cambridge? | 1654037940000 | BuxHqL4uGvbR5vNAt7oCRt3if7C3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7795010508566365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653070827811 | Tunan Shi | This market resolves to YES if anonymous3141 gets a first in part IA maths and NO for any other result. The market resolves as soon as they get the result. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668980233304 | 102.32472276806608 | TunanShi | 1668980255335 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikXvpMwHZoY4YvRiyps751WFzwuuthxpoC6LfANg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 1653742225445 | 1668980254441 | 0.2884562870408725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08302288774807312 | LHWL6l4e0DGYO1ZNz2zd | {"NO": 219.24233373079736, "YES": 599.9449858472144} | 0 | will-this-or-new-accusations-agains | 1856.3192109809374 | Will this or new accusations against Elon Musk be corroborated (1 accuser + 1 corroborator) in a credible news outlet before 2023? | 1672617540000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.694256953431126 | True | play | NO | public | 1653071375578 | Nathan Young | - The current accusation requires another witness' statement to be published in a credible news outlet (perhaps anonymously)
- Any new accusation requires 2 statements and to be published in a credible news outlet
- credible news outlet is judged by Nathan, but is one that most users would trust
Close date updated to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.935796399419097, "platformFee": 1.3664913717842344, "liquidityFee": 8.198948230705403} | 0 | 1673482837021 | 240.0065084346552 | NathanpmYoung | 1710451915345 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 38 | 0 | 3 | 41 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0"}] | ["culture-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "scandal-markets"] | 0.13 | 1672617487630 | 1667433985275 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | vY43lc1511REmFewtBpR | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-as-yes-a3d34cdfc8c0 | 6 | Will I resolve this question as "YES?" | 1653076396405 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653076380950 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653076396405 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1653076391661 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653076390331 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | UAP49r3zjXzbBeTWw3Lx | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-as-yes-827f2f471490 | 6 | Will I resolve this question as "YES?" | 1653076425106 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653076410650 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653076425106 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1653076416895 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653076415475 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | wjzJQpm17yeDPBhipwxd | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-as-yes-136ca32be35c | 6 | Will I resolve this question as "YES?" | 1653076471636 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653076462345 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653076471636 | 100.32832555627375 | SayJarva | 1653076467287 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653076467057 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4992004884545347 | NLJRENZCRk53uW8FXIA2 | {"NO": 857.5377005702799, "YES": 17.827049880968417} | 1 | manifold-fixes-the-daily-free-mana | 2150.955262967388 | Manifold fixes the "daily free mana" exploit by July 1st. | 1656648000000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9919251596622716 | True | play | YES | public | 1653077087078 | Michael Wheatley | There exists an exploit users can use to farm free mana off their daily market. Will Manifold take measures which prevent this?
Jun 23, 3:31pm: Daily free markets have been removed for the moment. If they're still gone at the end of the month I will resolve this YES.
If Manifold reverts to the status quo, I would res... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.89417229151601, "platformFee": 2.0024813746008063, "liquidityFee": 12.014888247604837} | 0 | 1656651108962 | 112.01488824760484 | MichaelWheatley | 1656466598255 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586113}] | ["free-markets"] | 0.5 | 1656209084229 | 1656466592739 | 0.9795708173749945 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4998729632706093 | Lv9IE5t46irD05x5VSyt | {"NO": 201.21059877632254, "YES": 50.25042741497728} | 1 | will-california-sb-886-california-e | 136.88226680437032 | Will California SB 886 "California Environmental Quality Act: exemption: public universities: university housing development projects" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | 1664492400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9971325129883652 | True | play | YES | public | 1653081429746 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SB 886 is a piece of legislation sponsored by California YIMBY and authored by Scott Weiner to streamline the environmental approval process for housing projects on university-owned land. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.28539089649269644, "platformFee": 0.04756514941544941, "liquidityFee": 0.28539089649269644} | 0 | 1664725288377 | 100.2853908964927 | Tetraspace | 1664725282583 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1664303066463}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769996}, {"n... | ["politics-default", "housing-markets", "california", "yimby"] | 0.5 | 1664315155439 | 1664725281301 | 0.8000848751176873 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5404369820963095 | NLeUsDchlRLL8Axr25cA | {"NO": 14864.309254794343, "YES": 44.15220471235182} | 1 | this-market-will-have-traded-m22499 | 22993.70533271538 | This market will have traded >M$22,499 in volume before the end of the month. | 1653946249944 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8868055988199073 | True | play | YES | public | 1653082645735 | GeorgeVii | Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph ^^^ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 173.43633476509655, "platformFee": 28.906055794182773, "liquidityFee": 173.43633476509655} | 0 | 1653946249944 | 483.4363347650967 | GeorgeVii | 1715879878865 | 0 | 24 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1715879878865}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.5 | False | 1653927474595 | 1654241866358 | 0.9974805131556802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Z0J0CXsDAsgvQLeGAWZ1 | will-this-market-successfully-post-5da0a7048488 | 60 | Will this market successfully post? | 1653084136365 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.886312227393626 | True | play | da011cd7142d | public | 1653084097387 | Marshall Polaris | I just made some breaking API changes, so I have to test whether it will work. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653084136365 | 240 | mqp | 1653084121256 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "93f5cc5969d6", "prob": 0.390625, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75.0600720961346, "userId": "62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 117.09371246996996, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Z0J0CXsDAsgvQLeGAWZ1", "createdTime": 1653084097537, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}... | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888106}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 1653084115639 | 1653084120968 | {"da011cd7142d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5001273172820453 | kXik0hMCJpGnttP9a0dp | {"NO": 59.77960245774503, "YES": 169.15598816095934} | 0.26121801085680435 | if-manifold-use-decision-markets-to | 284.2472726247736 | If Manifold use decision markets to make all decisions, will they have over 5,000 weekly active users in November? | 1660604340000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.894937392301181 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653086409239 | Jonathan Nankivell | This question will resolve to Null if they do not use decision markets to make all decisions before September.
Links:
- https://manifold.markets/analytics
- http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/decisionmarkets.pdf
May 21, 1:32pm: See also the market on what will happen if they don't use decision markets to make decisions:
h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673965745899 | 100.28607001385804 | JonathanNankivell | 1660504024561 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.5 | 1660503962025 | 1660504020578 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.199208461728651 | FVZuCUpHhoiWwjCmEDGs | {"NO": 71.69092263635815, "YES": 1098.5903756316623} | 0 | will-the-who-declare-a-monkeypox-pa | 3215.17749530163 | Will the WHO declare a monkeypox pandemic in 2022? | 1672484340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.530335615950108 | True | play | NO | public | 1653088963007 | N.C. Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.57334214713286, "platformFee": 0.703010220059659, "liquidityFee": 4.218061320357953} | 0 | 1672610208367 | 164.21806132035795 | NcyRocks | 1669503548662 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 41 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414945}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526107}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658... | ["monkeypox", "science-default", "world-default", "global-macro", "medicine"] | 0.5 | 1669503546801 | 1665726142005 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.492829670304805 | D7O4mJFsp6LxDkKUETFE | {"NO": 54.9295057308182, "YES": 207.9928749430403} | 0 | the-2022-nba-finals-mvp-will-not-be | 227.5167553669268 | The 2022 NBA Finals MVP will not be the winning team’s consensus best player (Curry, Doncic, Tatum, or Butler). | 1654902000000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8780573755607675 | True | play | NO | public | 1653090196738 | Richard | Resolves to yes if either:
A) the Finals MVP is not Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, or Jimmy Butler.
B) the Finals MVP is not on the winning team.
This market closes shortly before Game 4 of the Finals. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9422181401971494, "platformFee": 0.4903696900328584, "liquidityFee": 2.9422181401971494} | 0 | 1681361847783 | 102.94221814019716 | Richard | 1681361921498 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398428}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670173149816}] | ["sports-default", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1654888819398 | 1681361919188 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IobfDyoa98oqnBWv9rnx | i-will-resolve-this-market-to-the-o | 96 | I will resolve this market to the option that has the second highest amount bought/invested in M$ by market close time. | 1653721140000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.841820079014688 | True | play | 88f55d9c9509 | public | 1653090303582 | Rai | E.g.: if by market close, the conducted transactions were a buy of M$100 of option 1, buy of M$200 of option 2, buy of M$300 of option 3, sell of M$120 of option 3, then option 3 wins (with its total bought being M$180).
May 20, 4:45pm: in case of tie, I resolve as N/A | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.759999999999999, "platformFee": 1.6899999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653780267766 | 400 | agentydragon | 1653696430973 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "023d273adb21", "prob": 0.2603082049146189, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.618941229785417, "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 61.432383398558244, "textFts": "", "contractId": "IobfDyoa98oqnBWv9rnx", "createdTime": 1653090303889, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1653696430796 | {"88f55d9c9509": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19993162362201072 | pw3fMlXsKfNtdUuqqWw4 | {"NO": 97.06766001473099, "YES": 115.70729231478238} | 1 | will-i-abuse-the-free-markets-again | 21 | Will I abuse the free markets again? | 1653516410182 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3204120512873745 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094101471 | Undox | Well not again ever (as this market has to close) but again within the next month. My goal is not to. Abuse means I open a free market, I am the only bettor and it resolves to something other than N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26856370671636104, "platformFee": 0.04476061778606018, "liquidityFee": 0.26856370671636104} | 0 | 1653516410182 | 100.26856370671636 | Undox | 1653516408032 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.2 | 1653133363368 | 1653516406441 | 0.17330580361590311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29986974568285646 | AmDGhdTF6ifDsk9KO90i | {"NO": 57.27600791508978, "YES": 556.1159466576428} | 0 | will-it-be-possible-to-sell-on-nume | 617.4557755096039 | Will it be possible to sell on numeric markets? | 1654063140000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6047163515518723 | True | play | NO | public | 1653094145338 | Scott Lawrence | This market resolves YES if I can sell on a numeric market by the end of the month. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.606847409174525, "platformFee": 1.1011412348624208, "liquidityFee": 6.606847409174525} | 0 | 1654064695777 | 106.6068474091745 | ScottLawrence | 1654056652721 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3 | 1654056651181 | 1653527802556 | 0.04224875572488541 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.564063028418081 | ZHa9kMFZ0FSaWzLqPlCJ | {"NO": 591.3124840457575, "YES": 1063.5533059545805} | 0 | will-manifold-market-descriptions-s | 18736.644403803297 | Will Manifold market descriptions support Markdown? | 1684630080000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3531106028529984 | True | play | NO | public | 1653094217771 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if descriptions on Manifold support [markdown](https://www.markdownguide.org/) on or before the close date.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jul 14, 8:17pm: https://manifold.markets... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7780755599493627, "platformFee": 0.42984147351475155, "liquidityFee": 2.579048841088509} | 0 | 1684675903534 | 842.5790488410885 | BoltonBailey | 1684671022309 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672326808011}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "created... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.55 | 1684627296121 | 1684671017979 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | SbW3YzAtOFmM7UXAPxC0 | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-b378d6ec6151 | 6 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1653094353167 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094346072 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653094353167 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1653094351626 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653094350015 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | N8uAcyecoOkQkUmPbfgH | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-034388888abb | 6 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1653094371227 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094362541 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653094371227 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1653094368242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653094368080 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | kjNxlUPEWqQPz1O4RACA | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-56af1a9ca035 | 6 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1653094390554 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094381643 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653094390554 | 100.32832555627375 | SayJarva | 1653094388828 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653094387447 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5500070148979789 | jbYzdM2QI90SUUhXhf27 | {"NO": 109.87086216491892, "YES": 96.3428687471277} | 1 | will-i-manage-to-sew-a-dress-that-f | 40 | Will I manage to sew a dress that fits my daughter this month? | 1653777365908 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.758821826801758 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094385340 | Alicorn | Today I sewed my five year old a dress. She was able to get into it with a lot of help and then out of it again also with a lot of help, but it was not practically speaking wearable. Will I manage to salvage this one (or use one of the new fabrics I have coming) to make something she fits into before June 20? (Note:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1054790907031062, "platformFee": 0.18424651511718443, "liquidityFee": 1.1054790907031062} | 0 | 1653777365908 | 101.10547909070311 | Alicorn | 1653498020623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 1653498019374 | 0.582268148857227 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | WYHSTejK91CRGcByeW4Y | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-d8fec989bb7c | 6 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1653094411372 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094403440 | Peter Berggren | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653094411372 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggren | 1653094408033 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653094407885 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4944917032172153 | rCPtG7i7zagpPhyFEBlf | {"NO": 1280.0291948493484, "YES": 10.492999258343776} | 1 | will-the-who-declare-a-monkeypox-pu | 5487.46217993008 | Will the WHO declare a monkeypox Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2022? | 1658618099782 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.809300831670471 | True | play | YES | public | 1653094836015 | N.C. Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 81.48044330316924, "platformFee": 1.1892461282567874, "liquidityFee": 7.135476769540724} | 0 | 1658618099782 | 107.13547676954072 | NcyRocks | 1658617187033 | 0 | 30 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421689}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534786}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658... | ["monkeypox", "science-default", "world-default", "medicine"] | 0.5 | 1658617186902 | 1658600039252 | 0.9916895454131226 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3507052440706309 | TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq | {"NO": 208.095598109854, "YES": 2135.5849871187056} | 0 | will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu | 223808.52781115036 | Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms? | 1666918189432 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.118924066607458 | True | basic | NO | public | 1653095421839 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if twitter is forced to use hardcore litigation to get Musk to follow through with the deal. Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jul 13, 7:35pm: there is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 884.8399040744407, "platformFee": 7.321992099701254, "liquidityFee": 43.93195259820753} | 0 | 1666918189432 | 5665.77224883743 | BTE | 1710451925348 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 0 | 182 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV"}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "internet", "wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1666891312342 | 1669300050994 | False | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08128929431781323 | rMaXZW1oMPPCOPpkKyd1 | {"NO": 331.23152414743356, "YES": 0.4762786469185255} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-positive-600327cd8e84 | 232 | This question will resolve positively on the 21st of May, 2022 | 1653159600000 | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.998892265898511 | True | play | YES | public | 1653096675480 | Kronopath | This question will resolve as “Yes” tomorrow. It will not, under any circumstances, resolve as “No”.
I am submitting this in order to gauge how easy it is for users to abuse free markets to basically print M$. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.610855115398896, "platformFee": 0.7684758525664829, "liquidityFee": 4.610855115398896} | 0 | 1653170763729 | 104.6108551153989 | Kronopath | 1653106658796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1653106658637 | 1653105704553 | 0.9840090608945097 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | flgeb6Yonhe75i48q7MA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-market-correctly-post | 0 | Will this market correctly post? | 1653101006724 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.967372415006668 | True | play | YES | public | 1653100998294 | Marshall Polaris | I just fiddled around with CORS settings on the backend so you never know. Maybe it's busted. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653101006724 | 100 | mqp | 1653100998294 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.95 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PkhcKRCGAj5eYLlpybPM | what-is-the-impact-of-a-basic-incom | 139.88410811738822 | What is the impact of a basic income on employment? | 1654498740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.816102085163554 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653104826925 | Jack | What is the estimated change in employment (measured as time worked) of people granted a basic income?
I will leave the parameters of what exactly counts as a basic income intentionally open, but I'm roughly thinking of long-term, unconditional cash transfers with an amount roughly the poverty line. I'll take a global... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.400000000000002, "platformFee": 1.1000000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654525972847 | 459.99999999999994 | jack | 1654526176573 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5fa6159a751d", "prob": 0.19909240543757106, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.642767765751962, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.790861556063746, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PkhcKRCGAj5eYLlpybPM", "createdTime": 1653104826998, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569628}] | ["economics-default"] | 1654493470638 | 1654526174178 | {"02df2bd81834": 6.0606060606060606, "0ad45a4713c4": 35.35353535353536, "84c9463973ff": 13.131313131313131, "ad94eaedf7a9": 35.35353535353536, "e4071c868fff": 10.1010101010101} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5020342147808107 | QCblPlwk9r2RnDPToMLZ | {"NO": 271.1333589808936, "YES": 44.21257079770632} | 1 | we-will-successfully-rent-the-place | 254.90813386286064 | We will successfully rent the place we visited on May 20 | 1653688412502 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9995749129513847 | True | play | YES | public | 1653107392413 | Rai | May 20, 9:31pm: same gang as in https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1
May 20, 9:31pm: also same gang as in https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/what-should-we-call-the-4bed15-unit, https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.549887840806128, "platformFee": 0.7583146401343547, "liquidityFee": 4.549887840806128} | 0 | 1653688412502 | 104.54988784080612 | agentydragon | 1653616930207 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653616847199 | 1653616928454 | 0.8607746082166785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019311664349231313 | Ghlgsq5zefB5HvCtzimz | {"NO": 109.9099642723565, "YES": 1.103446817543153} | 1 | test-1 | 10 | test -1 | 1653117420164 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.226295368037949 | True | play | YES | public | 1653117292061 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5402143658610141, "platformFee": 0.09003572764350236, "liquidityFee": 0.5402143658610141} | 0 | 1653117420164 | 100.54021436586102 | Electricitypipe | 1653117381028 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653117379635 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5202396846320768 | FoqvZi4qGfKNKG6mWlV6 | {"NO": 309.35618107667153, "YES": 40.64256983248025} | 1 | will-trent-zimmerman-lose-his-north | 210 | Will Trent Zimmerman Lose His North Sydney Seat Tonight | 1653131940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.125944831105999 | True | play | YES | public | 1653126963557 | Undox |
Close date updated to 2022-05-21 9:19 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8629135399704406, "platformFee": 0.6438189233284067, "liquidityFee": 3.8629135399704406} | 0 | 1653257789274 | 103.86291353997045 | Undox | 1653184463649 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648207903}] | ["australia"] | 0.5 | 1653131364085 | 1653184461767 | 0.8919369187039101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46611361999256035 | urIjWW735Q5jmMs8bXp6 | {"NO": 65.91743261430372, "YES": 226.5905840686338} | 0.2 | will-the-rules-of-daily-free-market | 2906.0112054533447 | Will the rules of daily free markets change significantly before June 21st? | 1655787540000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6651110089310714 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653134477959 | Matt P | This market resolves to YES if there are significant changes made to the rules of daily free markets before the close date. I will resolve it early if such changes are made, not waiting until the close date to resolve.
"Significant changes" are somewhat defined by my judgment, but basically include anything I expect w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.0709131023691, "platformFee": 5.393245775427975, "liquidityFee": 32.35947465256784} | 0 | 1655835109588 | 211.0414487637295 | MattP | 1656015958598 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586600}] | ["free-markets"] | 0.5 | 1655786920841 | 1656015954790 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5029872552199368 | tv9iIxmjPOS06MWhVNH1 | {"NO": 52.854780049657776, "YES": 205.40539501663923} | 0 | if-manifold-dont-use-decision-marke | 749.6556333369617 | If Manifold don't use decision markets to make all decisions, will they have over 5,000 weekly active users in November? | 1660604340000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9093436596395637 | True | play | NO | public | 1653136422974 | Jonathan Nankivell | This question will resolve to Null if they use decision markets to make all decisions before September.
Links:
- https://manifold.markets/analytics
- http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/decisionmarkets.pdf
May 21, 1:33pm: See also the market on what will happen if they use decision markets to make all decisions:
https://ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.416529502602796, "platformFee": 0.3848682624599218, "liquidityFee": 2.3092095747595307} | 0 | 1673965765951 | 102.30920957475952 | JonathanNankivell | 1660597746570 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.5 | 1660597745352 | 1658974042728 | 0.21 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4972019239038487 | TMdBCH68mdW0kCEH3PpI | {"NO": 68.21174100404511, "YES": 156.18155676516236} | 0 | will-manifold-add-new-market-catego | 65.5703890203624 | Will Manifold add new market categories by June 1, 2022? | 1653167544465 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7995993939289194 | True | play | NO | public | 1653147302097 | Brian T. Edwards | The current list of categories could use refinement and extension. Perhaps adding "company" and "public figure"? Also "economics" could be broken into "markets" and "business"? These are just suggestions and there are many more possibilities. Share ideas in the comments.
Any change to the current list by midnight May ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4883252868510488, "platformFee": 0.24805421447517484, "liquidityFee": 1.4883252868510488} | 0 | 1653167544465 | 101.48832528685105 | BTE | 1653151755752 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1653150310085 | 1653151749964 | 0.3016201155695413 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3383404480801644 | A8QUDQcvmAr9S2nZxkTJ | {"NO": 50.5145873417884, "YES": 725.1654580696421} | 0 | will-martin-shkreli-launch-an-nft-p | 750.159544248158 | Will Martin Shkreli launch an NFT project before the end of the year? | 1672549140000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.396988401009912 | True | play | NO | public | 1653148336814 | GeorgeVii | Must be a Shkreli product. eg not shilling someone else's
Must be public knowledge. eg Shkreli is not merely suspected of running an anonymized project | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.610184033679457, "platformFee": 0.27827620435212064, "liquidityFee": 1.669657226112724} | 0 | 1673112169690 | 141.66965722611275 | GeorgeVii | 1673112319229 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0.5 | 1672359254380 | 1673112317077 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.199998066049268 | uRN6rkpOhhwGi4ValzIl | {"NO": 99.45259757580087, "YES": 103.57438853426112} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-f488d304317f | 8 | Will I resolve this market YES? | 1653150244965 | MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.324185741210444 | True | play | YES | public | 1653148630775 | Gurkenglas | I am making this market to win an argument against Matt P.
Close date updated to 2022-05-21 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.13180599312207095, "platformFee": 0.02196766552034516, "liquidityFee": 0.13180599312207095} | 0 | 1653150244965 | 100.13180599312207 | Gurkenglas | 1653150241322 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | 1653150235137 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4607775773541914 | RgsYIkNnI22WmtEz127n | {"NO": 44.3143597152677, "YES": 1037.8265034784756} | 0 | will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu | 5501.15126968997 | Will Gurkenglas convince me that multiplying the net winnings of the market creator by (L_tot-100)/L_tot would not effectively fix the "free money for market creators" "exploit" currently extant in the free daily market system? | 1653253200000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.732975365002196 | True | play | NO | public | 1653150314062 | Matt P | (see description)
Note that this is based on my judgment - if there is some extremely convoluted way (especially involving coordination with other actors) for the market creator to still pocket a significant portion of the daily $100 I would likely still consider my solution worthwhile. Similarly, if due to some minor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.817454562496984, "platformFee": 8.136242427082832, "liquidityFee": 48.817454562496984} | 0 | 1653253346144 | 148.81745456249698 | MattP | 1653258162752 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586254}] | ["free-markets"] | 0.33 | 1653253097082 | 1653258161647 | 0.03520295181590059 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35358925958354176 | DuY89FMdgGrKuLTMmsgW | {"NO": 80.67897466430361, "YES": 213.70715169445265} | 0 | will-bitcoin-be-at-least-30000-at-1-d7dd219dfc41 | 309.3825587641093 | Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Wed May 25? | 1653554642955 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8739931592914747 | True | play | NO | public | 1653151635402 | Alex Rockwell | By coinmarketcap average price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.9294701352657535, "platformFee": 1.154911689210959, "liquidityFee": 6.9294701352657535} | 0 | 1653554642955 | 106.92947013526575 | AlexRockwell | 1653554661512 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1653554632652 | 1653554658002 | 0.2928954719518724 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13021247984524553 | bnLpFvbV7wLXGPWaR0te | {"NO": 77.97754805904705, "YES": 696.8223040464395} | 0 | will-trading-fees-be-removed-within | 3445.689423999802 | Will trading fees be removed within a month? | 1655881140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.491791289508141 | True | play | NO | public | 1653153889906 | Jack | Resolves YES if prior to the market close date, Manifold does not charge fees on trades. NO if trading fees are still charged.
May resolve N/A in case fees are changed in some way that makes this ambiguous | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.352425388713488, "platformFee": 0.55135355052916, "liquidityFee": 3.3081213031749597} | 0 | 1655923252680 | 103.30812130317496 | jack | 1655879557109 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 1655879555848 | 1655404448048 | 0.016476751803804018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8946956959411513 | fCF5Yb1xil2rp9E1Pc7D | {"NO": 898.7735009811261, "YES": 435.3767757756508} | 1 | can-an-author-profit-despite-the-ma | 400 | Can an author profit despite the Matt P's proposed scheme? | 1653154850699 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.081356294870848 | True | play | YES | public | 1653154159143 | Jack | See https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu
I will attempt to demonstrate this by example (and pay some fees for it, oh well) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.358994113243127, "platformFee": 1.2264990188738545, "liquidityFee": 7.358994113243127} | 0 | 1653154850699 | 507.3589941132431 | jack | 1653173115890 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653154314007 | 1653173112307 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | 1xoPRTKMcY5p410Cmthn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | is-liquidity-burned-after-market-re | 0 | Is liquidity burned after market resolution? | 1653155631162 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.332169878499657 | True | play | NO | public | 1653155566886 | Manifold | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653155631162 | 100 | Manifold | 1653155566886 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | rgaBYMwtnTMBo27AqcTM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | is-liquidity-burned-after-market-re-31b2f93cc552 | 0 | Is liquidity burned after market resolution? (part 2) | 1653155617190 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.332169878499657 | True | play | YES | public | 1653155607144 | Manifold | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653155617190 | 100 | Manifold | 1653155607144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | akbu5LYWww6O6wrey2lx | {"NO": 105, "YES": 105} | 1 | test-what-happens-to-my-liquidity-i | 0 | test - what happens to my liquidity injection? | 1653155805826 | CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.67619851592354 | True | play | YES | public | 1653155785962 | Jack2 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653155805826 | 105 | Jack2 | 1653173279961 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653173279148 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | vqZJ3ARta0lbPSArfCB1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | am-i-still-very-confused-about-the | 0 | Am I still very confused about the interaction between free markets and liquidity? | 1653155982946 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1653155974444 | Austin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653155982946 | 100 | Austin | 1653155974444 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23953561772497356 | CXYOMwnE5ddIkvVwP0D0 | {"NO": 63.11368333587734, "YES": 383.3172998581794} | 0 | will-this-preprint-paper-neurologic | 446.99000823863247 | Will this pre-print paper (neurological side-effects of covid vaccines) pass peer-review and be published in a journal with impact factor >2? | 1704085140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.268788073111476 | True | play | NO | public | 1653158516391 | Research.Bet | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.16.22274439v1 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3919277700684334, "platformFee": 0.15464379128667138, "liquidityFee": 0.9278627477200282} | 0 | 1704574195472 | 160.92786274772004 | ResearchBet | 1704574195701 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525008}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537663}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId... | ["researchbet", "science-default", "medicine", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.75 | 1686103532269 | 1704574191270 | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14493249787021362 | gCFMraDRTKwOr2l7zzJF | {"NO": 211.97440722277497, "YES": 11781.418068482511} | 0 | will-the-european-union-have-an-off | 11841.78454797249 | Will the European Union have an official army by 2024? | 1704171540000 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-1 | 0.08712004190958429 | 2.167031647851264 | True | play | NO | public | 1653159664431 | Apart Research | Will the European parliament votes into being a military organization that is at least on the same spectrum as NATO, i.e. international military cooperation and with military obligations.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.20641427793458, "platformFee": 0.3353354836780686, "liquidityFee": 2.0120129020684114} | 0 | 1704184336005 | 422.0120129020684 | apartresearch | 1704184336292 | 1.1 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660016492703}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406874}, {"... | ["world-default", "stefans-group", "global-macro", "europe", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13676109253508248 | 0.5 | 1704134401557 | 0 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9899605514529829 | ANbW8IuaiG9thrwAE8ib | {"NO": 70.1665560296309, "YES": 100.80496392556782} | 1 | i-will-do-cc67ff7-by-the-end-of-tod | 54 | I will do cc67ff7 by the end of today? | 1653188554152 | zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.417022035190687 | True | play | YES | public | 1653161183658 | @misha | I think 99% is an overestimate, I think my past track record on tasks in the cc67ff7 reference class is more like ~80..90%. Free mana! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2201622558685252, "platformFee": 0.036693709311420866, "liquidityFee": 0.2201622558685252} | 0 | 1653188554152 | 100.22016225586852 | misha | 1653188543278 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 1653188541943 | 1653168792152 | 0.94889014533681 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5319235860426007 | l8FNBQXkMXViwSb9wbPv | {"NO": 1262.6226007455416, "YES": 13.283286336738652} | 1 | is-misha-really-my-biggest-fan-or-i | 1442.3289863601658 | Is Misha really my biggest fan, or is he conducting an elaborate pump & dump? | 1653443319549 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.7224266471581835 | True | play | YES | public | 1653167972280 | GeorgeVii | On this market: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/i-will-make-it-onto-a-manifold-lead
@misha has claimed to be my biggest fan.
I'm very flattered! How very kind of him!
. . . or is it?
Some may question his loyalty, claiming he is merely running an elaborate pump & dump; trying to convince unwitting investors to "fo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.738544466718748, "platformFee": 1.1230907444531246, "liquidityFee": 6.738544466718748} | 0 | 1653443319549 | 106.73854446671874 | GeorgeVii | 1653443302685 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653443301382 | 1653443286869 | 0.6473698330837228 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14409106850245135 | GAi3QVP8sTF1e4pyjCDv | {"NO": 129.62188241445043, "YES": 12600.860751750832} | 0 | will-aisafetyideascom-reach-200000 | 33159.08919351238 | Will aisafetyideas.com reach 200,000 total unique visitors in a year? | 1684641600000 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.903096976722205 | True | play | NO | public | 1653168936018 | Apart Research | aisafetyideas.com is a page that collects and showcases shovel-ready AI safety and governance project ideas. As development goes along, it will facilitate crowdsourcing ideas, mentorships, expert validation, funding and more.
The reason for 200,000 total unique visitors as the first question is because it is an unders... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.820558436367605, "platformFee": 0.8021063572817332, "liquidityFee": 4.8126381436904} | 0 | 1684665541334 | 304.8126381436904 | apartresearch | 1684626470436 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445631}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589775}] | ["effective-altruism", "technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1684626470316 | 1684452028650 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011813427333415553 | 9M5vg4aLlqmFF3t0RASA | {"NO": 101.59943480596334, "YES": 47.97874215620976} | 0 | will-i-a-friend-of-mine-or-someone | 384.5556959404498 | Will I, a friend of mine, or someone in my family get monkeypox in 2022? | 1672549140000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.185125122835117 | True | play | NO | public | 1653171100062 | Tom | This market resolves YES if I become aware by the end of the year that I, a friend of mine, or someone in my family has gotten monkeypox in 2022. If it is ambiguous as to whether someone has gotten monkeypox, this will resolve YES.
May 21, 6:11pm: I estimate that the relevant class of people contains a few dozen peopl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2764540874213404, "platformFee": 0.08779492591566962, "liquidityFee": 0.5267695554940176} | 0 | 1672551202465 | 100.52676955549403 | toms | 1667245213530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658529555666}, {"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677478510014}] | ["monkeypox", "toms-personal"] | 0.01 | 1667245213414 | 1655862258276 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4620081948202063 | SjceFLGFXZJ2hTqvNhUo | {"NO": 10.571219197265691, "YES": 2024.4711266873885} | 0 | will-tether-usdt-fall-below-98-cent | 5232.3610910033185 | Will Tether (USDT) fall below 98 cents by July 31? | 1659361270653 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.967247641080373 | True | play | NO | public | 1653173600368 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it fall below that at any time? Mostly going to judge by https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether . Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 202... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.33548159026306, "platformFee": 1.6789139852075892, "liquidityFee": 10.073483911245537} | 0 | 1659361270653 | 110.07348391124555 | TimP | 1659361178907 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529442039}] | ["crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1659361177521 | 1653175431082 | 0.04761004240029937 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1M8Sw8W6zbkndxGGYd28 | i-will-make-a-free-market-for-you | 0 | I will make a free market for you | 1653355027503 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653175802823 | Undox | Add your question as a free response answer. Respond with a comment a about the initial type and probability. I will pock my favourite each day and make a free market from it. I will resolve this question NA once free markets die.
Other people can also offer their free market to take ideas from this list. If you do ju... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653355027503 | 220 | Undox | 1653355024435 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "99dc41b8989c", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1M8Sw8W6zbkndxGGYd28", "createdTime": 1653175802999, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | 1653175802823 | 1653355023087 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6591501235627972 | 2OXUHbOTL10wu35vHqPv | {"NO": 73.3974680464761, "YES": 119.88152032902597} | 0 | will-i-get-to-bed-by-1200am-tonight | 20 | Will I get to bed by 12:00am tonight? | 1653234591578 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.083875635576314 | True | play | NO | public | 1653181160313 | Charlie | I will not bet NO on this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7108780258441796, "platformFee": 0.11847967097402995, "liquidityFee": 0.7108780258441796} | 0 | 1653234591578 | 100.71087802584418 | Charlie | 1653234617388 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 1653199208002 | 1653234616016 | 0.5421235882413872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5014558830747881 | 8j8T5s0d7QZQ0Yr8s2tz | {"NO": 11.149814884304874, "YES": 930.0537999981725} | 0 | will-manifold-show-the-number-of-tr | 952.2089076061167 | Will Manifold show the number of traders who bet on each option by July 1st 2022? | 1656604740000 | nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.790404296675583 | True | play | NO | public | 1653181216354 | Akhil Wable | Will Manifold show the number of traders who bet on each option?
Related: The resolution of this question depends on it https://manifold.markets/AkhilWable/how-do-you-decide-how-much-to-bet-o | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.360902551459346, "platformFee": 0.20761750424549977, "liquidityFee": 1.2457050254729984} | 0 | 1656721728742 | 101.24570502547299 | akhil | 1656604275981 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656604274700 | 1655684185314 | 0.011914701276789239 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | Jc7KNZq1Z0vJkuaRQfhb | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-f6c05716e882 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653181296263 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653181286519 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653181296263 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1653181291824 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653181290568 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | zicgJsGUHZHNLknZEPYy | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-d1d62908ceb7 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653181317697 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653181306680 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653181317697 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1653181314196 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653181312878 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | mX5nL1neChqNbGZ8dCzG | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-d14c312707cf | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653181335296 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653181328643 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653181335296 | 100.32832555627375 | SayJarva | 1653181333931 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653181332671 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9839369202808496 | GDhkHjhUd5Hbd8K4i6Vt | {"NO": 0.3737291947480168, "YES": 108.01490804403088} | 0 | will-manifolds-freemoney-exploit-be | 910 | Will Manifold's free-money exploit be fixed before this market resolves? | 1653181463717 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.426283931470383 | True | play | NO | public | 1653181397525 | Peter Berggren | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.31235123653859764, "platformFee": 0.052058539423099605, "liquidityFee": 0.31235123653859764} | 0 | 1653181463717 | 100.3123512365386 | PeterBerggren | 1653181457945 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 1653181457783 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5049783169541701 | SNJKXMfmo9UoWyA9bran | {"NO": 736.2735607775962, "YES": 15.328216770992153} | 1 | will-south-korea-have-a-lunar-orbit | 3077.860196744841 | Will South Korea have a lunar orbiter in space by the end of the year? | 1670112384758 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3289614339273115 | True | play | YES | public | 1653183289958 | Enopoletus Harding | Resolves to Yes if South Korea has a lunar orbiter in space by the end of the year. If the mission does not launch or is a failure, the question resolves to No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.107167295756457, "platformFee": 0.35119454929274285, "liquidityFee": 2.107167295756457} | 0 | 1670112384758 | 102.10716729575644 | EnopoletusHarding | 1670112370465 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448812}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461768}] | ["technology-default", "space"] | 0.5 | 1670112370314 | 1653199392889 | 0.7867122026845351 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000810629553436 | 4WPuKl4dJpSHQFTG0mbp | {"NO": 107.39710554351855, "YES": 94.54505488421708} | 1 | the-2022-state-of-js-survey-lists-r | 13.000000000000028 | The 2022 state of js survey lists rescript higher than reason | 1672549140000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.759399451834497 | True | play | YES | public | 1653184250165 | Quinn | In 2021, reason was at 1.3% and rescript was at 0.4%. https://2021.stateofjs.com/en-US/other-tools/#javascript_flavors
Market closes at end of 2022 and resolves whenever stateofjs is published.
Reason's omission from survey will be interpreted as 0%, defaulting rescript as the winner. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.38267256922149434, "platformFee": 0.06377876153691572, "liquidityFee": 0.38267256922149434} | 0 | 1695822061702 | 100.3826725692215 | Quinn | 1695822084317 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 54 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443553}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072106}] | ["technology-default", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1667246256441 | 1695822083426 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05120309028022203 | AreUPiYzuMRc1lHbkSTq | {"NO": 399.7213998283407, "YES": 0.053705392081070585} | 1 | test-dont-bet-on-this | 100 | Test (don't bet on this) | 1653185890366 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.234002736217265 | True | play | YES | public | 1653185648143 | Matt P | Seriously, if you bet on this you'll very likely lose money. Testing something for https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6716010299553432, "platformFee": 0.2786001716592239, "liquidityFee": 1.6716010299553432} | 0 | 1653185890366 | 301.6716010299553 | MattP | 1653185873086 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653185872913 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019311664349231313 | uotJbwTIwGUswj3eUrvo | {"NO": 109.9099642723565, "YES": 1.103446817543153} | 1 | free-money | 10 | free money | 1653186508629 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.226295368037949 | True | play | YES | public | 1653186477913 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5402143658610141, "platformFee": 0.09003572764350236, "liquidityFee": 0.5402143658610141} | 0 | 1653186508629 | 100.54021436586102 | Electricitypipe | 1653186490092 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653186488740 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8946956959411513 | 285QeQZVzJYpBBsrOdLd | {"NO": 898.7735009811261, "YES": 435.3767757756508} | 1 | test-7a8d0ec91708 | 400 | test | 1653187792150 | CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.081356294870848 | True | play | YES | public | 1653187686570 | Jack2 | For https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.358994113243127, "platformFee": 1.2264990188738545, "liquidityFee": 7.358994113243127} | 0 | 1653187792150 | 507.3589941132431 | Jack2 | 1653191284915 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653187714610 | 1653191283738 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05724347886612863 | lvLqBoma8IEv51b9l0de | {"NO": 226.1111070218799, "YES": 9.621003490295491} | 1 | will-this-market-close-with-at-leas | 333.8660988724927 | Will this market close with at least M$200 in volume? | 1653191627096 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.518536483810233 | True | play | YES | public | 1653191303925 | Scott Lawrence | I have only M$29 liquid right now. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.136764633764054, "platformFee": 2.0227941056273426, "liquidityFee": 12.136764633764054} | 0 | 1653191627096 | 112.13676463376406 | ScottLawrence | 1653191616586 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653191616442 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2202653403832697 | Q0K2Qg2Ch7LeQu2XLp5D | {"NO": 75.0533984894476, "YES": 1290.3397750077047} | 0 | will-there-be-400-covid19-paper-ret | 2360.942438663464 | Will there be >400 COVID-19 paper retractions by the end of 2022, as reported by Retraction Watch? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9405964711344796 | True | play | NO | public | 1653192357637 | Research.Bet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"yes\" if the Retraction Watch \"Retracted coronavirus (COVID-19) papers\" list reaches 400 in the year 2022. May 22, 12:05am: https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/ May 22, 5:51pm: see similar m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.861483080701784, "platformFee": 0.850011995600426, "liquidityFee": 5.100071973602556} | 0 | 1672871761810 | 145.10007197360255 | ResearchBet | 1672527042537 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528106}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537816}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId... | ["researchbet", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.3 | 1672527042334 | 1671122529894 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eX1C4dtHquStZ9A1x50q | when-will-star-citizen-enter-beta | 144.06287516181226 | When will Star Citizen enter Beta? | 1893456060000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653198845215 | Mr Stone | Answers need to be in this format: YYYY-MM.
Close date updated to 2030-01-01 1:01 am
May 26, 11:24am: The game I'm referring to is: https://robertsspaceindustries.com/star-citizen
The question will be resolved as soon as the developers say Star Citizen has entered Beta. Usually, this is when a game is feature complet... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2951025222800441, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 300 | stone | 1718493748321 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7cb3f3e43d70", "prob": 0.5395241077358429, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.22414026856544, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 63.349212255111595, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eX1C4dtHquStZ9A1x50q", "createdTime": 1653198845304, "probChanges": {"day": -0.48979591836... | 6 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "QXneG5tQfdbHSlqt91Q3aauAy8S2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1661376971644}] | ["gaming"] | 1718493745171 | 1662844230645 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5167232034400536 | awYJzziRZOxdNGC34b0z | {"NO": 10510.329453758555, "YES": 1.319548649390768} | 1 | will-masks-be-required-in-sfba-goog | 10629.010507369874 | Will masks be required in SFBA Google offices by end of June? | 1654926086283 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.225971526431618 | True | play | YES | public | 1653203649084 | Jack | By the end of June, will masks be required for vaccinated employees in any Google offices in the San Francisco Bay Area?
A requirement instituted by Google or by a government qualifies for YES resolution. The requirement must apply to all or most vaccinated employees to resolve as YES.
Background: Currently masks ar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.242642285192074, "platformFee": 0.7071070475320124, "liquidityFee": 4.242642285192074} | 0 | 1654926086283 | 104.24264228519209 | jack | 1654926078182 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654926076747 | 1654926030383 | 0.9568764923209091 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05087988021626937 | cJ3b2iEzeCEt4l79xCvv | {"NO": 399.7196682265083, "YES": 0.05728067142330007} | 1 | test-case-money-for-nothing-clicks | 100 | Test case (money for nothing, clicks for free) | 1653222912173 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.234560040013265 | True | play | YES | public | 1653222836958 | Matt P | Please don't bet on this. Testing if it is possible to create mana from nothing in a non-free market via fees or some such. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.681990640950503, "platformFee": 0.28033177349175054, "liquidityFee": 1.681990640950503} | 0 | 1653222912173 | 301.6819906409505 | MattP | 1653223081139 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653222897126 | 1653223080249 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019275262086843194 | odubgISnMKbcInsxsabD | {"NO": 199.10000000000002, "YES": 10.799999999999986} | 1 | test-start-1-buy-100-immediately | 100 | Test - start 1%, buy $100 immediately | 1653226236146 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.682451993356205 | True | play | YES | public | 1653226208467 | Matt P | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4, "platformFee": 0.9000000000000001, "liquidityFee": 5.4} | 0 | 1653226236146 | 105.4 | MattP | 1653226220849 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653226219544 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08641129401808263 | lWhxZqecYGLCKzB9lJQF | {"NO": 199.67801369758834, "YES": 0.06802602073767583} | 1 | test-start-1-buy-100-in-4-equal-ste | 100 | Test - start 1%, buy $100 in 4 equal steps | 1653226755227 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.650583104374422 | True | play | YES | public | 1653226720348 | Matt P | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9319178144697884, "platformFee": 0.3219863024116314, "liquidityFee": 1.9319178144697884} | 0 | 1653226755227 | 101.93191781446978 | MattP | 1653226780265 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653226746171 | 1653226778763 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5325695776243226 | 7Q5sYdhPypb9WfGvqXv2 | {"NO": 169.66317876764023, "YES": 101.10455877986095} | 0 | is-the-last-bet-on-this-market-a-bu | 1420.4424459325173 | Is the last bet on this market a buy NO or sell YES? | 1653832740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3412134582535225 | True | play | NO | public | 1653226982943 | Undox | May 30, 9:06am: Last bet shown in my UI:
A trader sold M$0 of NO, 9 hours ago
$0 usually means < $0.50c, but it is a real bet. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.741210650163147, "platformFee": 2.4568684416938575, "liquidityFee": 14.741210650163147} | 0 | 1653865689883 | 114.74121065016314 | Undox | 1653832739202 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653832739025 | 0.6565873596009475 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y5eQCScnl1ueI1zjGkAc | which-player-will-be-picked-1-in-th | 493.6110394422144 | Which player will be picked #1 in the 2022 NBA Draft? | 1655967540000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.737856742896021 | True | play | 1693a6c81f30 | public | 1653236124989 | Richard | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9536522823606175, "platformFee": 0.23841307059015437, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684430344482 | 460 | Richard | 1684430355436 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7c5b178c60e5", "prob": 0.0683894810583571, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.594148338982781, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.3378303635487, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y5eQCScnl1ueI1zjGkAc", "createdTime": 1653236125076, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404058}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670173139594}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "g... | ["sports-default", "please-resolve", "basketball"] | 1655961854139 | 1684430353728 | False | {"1693a6c81f30": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5019858956443515 | xI71U7Eo0HPFbZaMP9jI | {"NO": 149.797018210746, "YES": 70.25964984844613} | 1 | should-i-follow-hoppers-advice-and | 50 | Should I follow Hopper's advice and wait to buy my flight? | 1653314193965 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.796002008217254 | True | play | YES | public | 1653242994103 | Charlie | It says "prices will vary over the next two weeks (until the day of departure) dropping as low as $206 (savings of $564)"
I am pretty skeptical after I lost about $60 waiting for a different flight before it flipped to "buy".
Will resolve to YES if the flight I'm watching goes below its current price any time before ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2178907355238826, "platformFee": 0.20298178925398047, "liquidityFee": 1.2178907355238826} | 0 | 1653314193965 | 101.21789073552388 | Charlie | 1653314738089 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577743}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653259162212 | 1653314736432 | 0.6824441810102989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49292076034274906 | 6a1NiIAomXqogSw3obgr | {"NO": 27.32106396748537, "YES": 446.2081973035669} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-make-it-able-aa90dab45a42 | 471.15905766772147 | Will Manifold Markets make it able to add a default market resolution | 1656626340000 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.521098162825986 | True | play | NO | public | 1653245299959 | Milli | Details: The creator of a market would be allowed to set a default resolution. This is used if the creator doesn't resolve the market manually before time X after market close. X would also be set by the creator.
This market resolves YES when it happens or when the market closes and the feature is announced.
Otherwis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.40698167518243, "platformFee": 0.7111038988500216, "liquidityFee": 4.266623393100129} | 0 | 1656660476069 | 104.26662339310013 | Milli | 1656525064899 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656525063495 | 1654174878272 | 0.0561761889128024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999550019373089 | hcMT8lUC1oNc7R2KD1TB | {"NO": 62.007530203453655, "YES": 183.77648927467578} | 1 | will-tsla-close-below-550-on-any-si | 560.3633563636877 | Will TSLA close below $550 on any single trading day in 2022? | 1668800555908 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7898019162122676 | True | play | YES | public | 1653250377468 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if TSLA closes any trading day during 2022 below $550. As of 5/19/22 TSLA is priced at $663.90.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-18 2:42 p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.793687403962474, "platformFee": 0.5620369420758938, "liquidityFee": 3.3722216524553628} | 0 | 1668800878786 | 103.37222165245537 | BTE | 1710451941522 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm"}] | ["economics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1667245345011 | 1668800792301 | 0.25225067744204616 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000508706438348 | fa5868p6NutCo8LLoSnz | {"NO": 26.428670530052102, "YES": 381.3533881628932} | 0 | will-playable-worlds-reveal-the-nam | 319.11386667354236 | Will Playable Worlds reveal the name of their new MMORPG before 1 September 2022? | 1662004740000 | yF0Gnd8jv0htsKvu1I2nE1XOLzE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.595937078182522 | True | play | NO | public | 1653252005630 | Anoran | This market resolves to “YES” if Playable Worlds officially reveals the name of their new mmorpg before 1 September 2022 UTC time zone. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20308858185045664, "platformFee": 0.033848096975076104, "liquidityFee": 0.20308858185045664} | 0 | 1662024383233 | 100.20308858185045 | Anoran | 1662000301264 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhTDTq_3MBeRiC0Snvt48cVLdMO3BdlR2jP6kgt=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.5 | 1662000299842 | 0.06482310746193645 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40687026161380935 | u58RqTlG1LyCN7VEoY8c | {"NO": 202.6058119737127, "YES": 39.960358827483766} | 0.7766856975753073 | will-i-have-my-meds-by-thursday-aft | 103 | Will I have my meds by Thursday afternoon? | 1653634740000 | rR0GrrJUWJXOUvtbDvcTbeWQSJf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0993040885067065 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653252091651 | Elliot Lindsey | This market resolves YES if by Thursday afternoon CVS has given me my meds.
After exactly one successful hassle-free meds procurement last month, the powers that be have decided to make me jump through a bunch of hoops yet AGAIN. On Thursday I will be leaving for a trip, so I need my prescription before then. With any... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653665548508 | 102.36512815772328 | elliotlindsey | 1653629278547 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1653629276531 | 1653284124807 | 0.7766856975753071 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3512580196357471 | TzeTykOSxUhA4Ixiq33w | {"NO": 134.1798305561312, "YES": 500.2345065452874} | 0 | will-miami-beach-suffer-structural | 591.1170518457726 | Will Miami Beach suffer structural damages due to a hurricane this season? | 1669870800000 | YULeL6TvTLZXddwJJBKiKKKPy8h2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8663863520468769 | True | play | NO | public | 1653255449455 | Steve Michaels | Hurricane season is June 1st through November 30th, and historically, most hurricanes have struck in September or October: http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/hurricanes
Many sources cite Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as the last hurricane to inflict major damages in Miami broadly, but Miami Beach was almost totally spared... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.188414478258739, "platformFee": 0.31770119792970797, "liquidityFee": 1.9062071875782474} | 0 | 1669915525227 | 221.90620718757822 | SteveMichaels | 1669814782382 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417774}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1669814782246 | 1669560783151 | 0.1268158871862547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SBt5sPGGOFFKe28ZnUP8 | how-much-will-the-us-median-home-pr | 679.2572711155262 | How much will the US median home price change before 2023? | 1672552740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.703167921098609 | True | play | 6592cfa8ccc7 | public | 1653257608752 | Lars Doucet | Take the median US home price from January 1, 2022, and compare it to January 1, 2023. How much will it have grown or shrunk?
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5120380038591055, "platformFee": 0.37800950096477637, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675451959869 | 1099.9999999999995 | LarsDoucet | 1675451949610 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0c4ba5117690", "prob": 0.03394782636057028, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3652277454470623, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.393273890795165, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SBt5sPGGOFFKe28ZnUP8", "createdTime": 1653257608804, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 7 | 16 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570135}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670142178}] | ["economics-default", "please-resolve"] | 1672338640468 | 1675451945703 | {"6592cfa8ccc7": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.020091673244877643 | o5UVGBHE7SsUgpW2dBeV | {"NO": 444.73128351288386, "YES": 86.91122194736673} | 1 | will-this-market-achieve-at-least-m | 505.41175361903083 | Will this market achieve at least M$500 in volume? | 1653258297396 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.329322479084727 | True | play | YES | public | 1653258023235 | Scott Lawrence | This market closes when it hits M$500 traded volume and resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO at close date.
I am also testing to understand how market creation fees work. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.141777208511627, "platformFee": 3.856962868085271, "liquidityFee": 23.141777208511627} | 0 | 1653258297396 | 123.14177720851163 | ScottLawrence | 1653258286506 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653258286379 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4080815623642282 | 1rvbfs4Lk35Q5h0GItER | {"NO": 61.52783992811516, "YES": 631.4667934382846} | 0 | will-my-husband-and-i-become-pregna | 868.5833241027822 | Will my husband and I become pregnant by the end of the year? | 1671203043457 | QBnj7MaZCbf81ildFCqTwE08Eyv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6135394016194167 | True | play | NO | public | 1653258527328 | Em | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My husband had a reverse vasectomy in Sao Paulo, Brazil on October 14th, 2021 and has had the vasectomy since 2013. I had my IUD removed in January 2022 and we have been trying to get pregnant. He is 33 and I am 27. Sexual interactions are on avera... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.286706155699532, "platformFee": 0.44971585797465935, "liquidityFee": 2.698295147847956} | 0 | 1671203043457 | 162.69829514784794 | ES221712 | 1669463165525 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821903536}] | ["sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1669463163783 | 1660625118086 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21761151495441633 | suuymZ9YtpWmWFTevMKh | {"NO": 799.436164798153, "YES": 1488.0554460222668} | 0.12999999999999992 | did-monkeypox-come-from-a-lab | 2312.913233851611 | Did monkeypox come from a lab? | 1830315540000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0.017207310879338154 | 9.803959153195276 | False | basic | public | 1653258955046 | GeorgeVii | Claims beginning to circulate (just search twitter etc) e.g:
https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/05/22/wuhan-assembled-monkeypox-strains/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD5x-xwGxTQ
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/22/monkeys-escape-after-truck-carrying-100-animals-to-a-laboratory-crashes-in-us?CMP=share_btn_... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.795849207211912, "platformFee": 3.2388367249478236, "liquidityFee": 19.433020349686934} | 0 | 1000 | GeorgeVii | 1690991654793 | 1.1 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 49 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535344}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658529556563}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o... | ["monkeypox", "science-default", "medicine"] | 0.1360647430614114 | 0.5 | 1690991654664 | 1662184400636 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25185859479547235 | BjMbaGUwCiBv0jhHXUYW | {"NO": 263.8198290813005, "YES": 30.76442946900278} | 0 | will-the-baby-formula-shortage-be-r | 134.10591968351108 | Will the baby formula shortage be resolved by September 1st? | 1662094740000 | rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.210260144472355 | True | play | NO | public | 1653259448486 | Tobias Pace | This market resolves YES if both of the following are true before 9/1/22:
At the Walmart near me in Lincoln NE, there are no purchase limits on any kind of baby formula.
At the Walmart near me in Lincoln NE, there are >20 cans of powdered baby formula marked as suitable for newborns available for purchase.
I will chec... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5635708312148378, "platformFee": 0.29786391920529076, "liquidityFee": 1.7871835152317446} | 0 | 1662098459753 | 151.78718351523173 | TobiasPace | 1662131460608 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529476468}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566278}, {"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "g... | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "parenting"] | 0.25 | 1662093912395 | 1662131458656 | 0.7427255273449545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2lbDlT1PBNZoJmebaccZ | planecrash-who-is-on-this-tag-poste | 3012.5466264018974 | [planecrash] Who is ??? on this tag posted December 25th 2021? | 1682000982994 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.635002256013391 | True | play | 62f13be6a96 | public | 1653261807115 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tag in question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1735451#reply-1735451", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1735451#reply-1735451", "class": null, "target": "_blan... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.841803312854021, "platformFee": 0.7104508282135052, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682000982994 | 1300.0000000000002 | Tetraspace | 1682000977558 | 0 | 25 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f72a4f45a3fa", "prob": 0.0016135855905094598, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0039604366179288465, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.450471879351385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2lbDlT1PBNZoJmebaccZ", "createdTime": 1653261807201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390772}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540720}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "1j... | ["glowfic", "culture-default", "planecrash", "ancient-markets"] | 1674576049766 | 1682000974649 | {"62f13be6a96": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4989787010796484 | xA8d7ePIza8ua2QhIunH | {"NO": 7.637316890698003, "YES": 1454.6636710719088} | 0 | will-nat-gas-storage-levels-in-germ | 1504.2760429952416 | Will Nat Gas storage levels in Germany fall for any day before 30th june? | 1656954331172 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.342008483287752 | True | play | NO | public | 1653261955890 | Tim P | Does it drop any day in [20.5. - 30.6.]?
See:
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/EN/Areas/Energy/Companies/SecurityOfSupply/GasSupply/start.html
(Image 5)
Close date updated to 2022-07-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.474751166584158, "platformFee": 0.40329823706683277, "liquidityFee": 2.419789422400997} | 0 | 1656954331172 | 102.419789422401 | TimP | 1656954262924 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577677}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1656954261675 | 1656954227460 | 0.14046930992017187 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bPZ4Kjv95enUBjripA0h | what-will-the-next-age-of-empires-i-65ced84f604c | 114 | What will the next Age of Empires III civilisation(s) be? | 1735642800000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653263950764 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves equally to every civilisation released next.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 480.00000000000006 | NcyRocks | 1708833743090 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0265af5502a6", "prob": 0.21835968206830292, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.745997293458595, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.88677191166438, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bPZ4Kjv95enUBjripA0h", "createdTime": 1653263950821, "probChanges": {"day": -0.78164031793... | 4 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665740993526}, {"name": "Strategy games", "slug": "strategy-games", "groupId": "a50583e9-06a2-431a-bdb7-8968af4a58b9", "createdTime": 1690950554302}] | ["gaming", "strategy-games"] | 1708833742931 | 1684183479675 | False | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4351715025344313 | 3ZevpmhJxjiIwufpPNrs | {"NO": 955.8564647361476, "YES": 1051.236527262084} | 0.4119532538372356 | will-a-us-state-recognize-marriages | 2044.6720524395548 | Will a U.S. state recognize marriages with more than two members? | 2147487240000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.04159460217728 | False | basic | public | 1653265540878 | Eric | Resolves as YES if sometime before 2038 one or more U.S. states recognize (i.e. legalize, accept, etc.) marriages with more than two people. | BINARY | {"day": -6.661338147750939e-16, "week": -6.661338147750939e-16, "month": -6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.54125628336188, "platformFee": 1.5781723193450314, "liquidityFee": 3.5222696993800127} | 0 | 1000 | theincredibleholk | 1718060257850 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 0 | 49 | 0 | 30 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468659}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540868}] | ["politics-default", "culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1714392087139 | 1718060256605 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qouftB4g9baXuxrSMamg | what-cryptocurrency-will-have-the-h | 6903.908904483032 | What cryptocurrency will have the highest market cap on Jan 1, 2025? | 1735714740000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1653266012171 | Scott Lawrence | This will resolve to whichever cryptocurrency has the highest market cap at midnight on Jan 1, 2025. I will use coinmarketcap.com if it still exists at resolution time; otherwise I will choose a suitable successor.
May 22, 6:33pm: To clarify, midnight on Jan 1, 2025 Mountain standard time; i.e., one second after marke... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.625040407457186, "platformFee": 0.47622710843410154, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1799.9999999999995 | ScottLawrence | 1718633279603 | 1.1 | 62 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ff4ea280705", "prob": 0.00035898988974576165, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0032005171227371676, "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.912140037464438, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qouftB4g9baXuxrSMamg", "createdTime": 1653266012256, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 32 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658529538818}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658687784840}] | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.16883182546957812 | 1718633276333 | 1670424460635 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11936192497810882 | K7FnC8Ns6bqWI0GcDQ3R | {"NO": 786.8449516899327, "YES": 3574.6150032169403} | 0.028970803006099655 | will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon | 6925.822472891339 | Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026? | 1767329940000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.319821817496408 | False | basic | public | 1653267295358 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similar to https://kalshi.com/events/MOON-25/markets/MOON-25, but for landings before January 1st 2026 rather than 2025", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apr 9, 9:37am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will NASA land a p... | BINARY | {"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.172271606563678, "platformFee": 0.9254294982042474, "liquidityFee": 5.552576989225483} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1713078487428 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 43 | [{"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1661397610996}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461535}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "g... | ["technology-default", "space", "artemis-program", "artemis-3"] | 0.35 | 1713078478540 | 1681050678963 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011594796425016844 | QEUytVlsvTCtND4sPduv | {"NO": 104.95377657668793, "YES": 1.9640449567570153} | 1 | test-market-5dc442edb4bc | 5 | Test Market | 1653267968938 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.756273554896227 | True | play | YES | public | 1653267827163 | SneakySly | Resolving soon. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27734053987246327, "platformFee": 0.04622342331207722, "liquidityFee": 0.27734053987246327} | 0 | 1653267968938 | 100.27734053987247 | SneakySly | 1653267952073 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653267950673 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49998775511351384 | Qf1oAp42hI0NBN0THG6Y | {"NO": 345.52735893883136, "YES": 29.042235650917632} | 1 | the-contents-of-this-riseup-pad-htt-53e0074caea7 | 253 | The contents of this riseup pad https://pad.riseup.net/p/first-manifold-experiment-keep will be squiggle code that estimates the number of piano tuners in chicago on July 1st 2022 | 1656647940000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4910902383280473 | True | play | YES | public | 1653268482327 | Quinn | A riseup pad is a lightweight, anonymous, and ephemeral alternative to google docs.
Squiggle is an estimational programming language in early access https://www.squiggle-language.com
You can view the history of the pad by clicking the timepiece-looking icon on the top right corner. The pad will disappear forever if ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0074089242366826, "platformFee": 0.014776711602514304, "liquidityFee": 0.08866026961508583} | 0 | 1656961469754 | 100.08866026961509 | Quinn | 1657313768067 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448298}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1656310538322 | 1657313749398 | 0.9224615444459006 |
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