p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.013416483478772135 | saN2yLFwK3ErkJ9Rj4QX | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-8048d4265939 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653272863387 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653272857332 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653272863387 | 100.32832555627375 | unit_24601 | 1653272861685 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653272860468 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | kOBkpow3MxYsamQ9oKBZ | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-93fbf1473a3f | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653272880740 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653272874256 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653272880740 | 100.32832555627375 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1653272879378 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653272877955 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013416483478772135 | EROi4OGESKZ6hpcsnjwJ | {"NO": 105.94527907395437, "YES": 1.2651150344955018} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-a73d9e029258 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES"? | 1653272899532 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605486396819959 | True | play | YES | public | 1653272892268 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32832555627375476, "platformFee": 0.0547209260456258, "liquidityFee": 0.32832555627375476} | 0 | 1653272899532 | 100.32832555627375 | SayJarva | 1653272896345 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653272896172 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14874972078864296 | 8ue83jX4lcKznwIfcfwv | {"NO": 337.00778449619975, "YES": 1249.442083496232} | 0 | eliezer-yudkowsky-creates-or-reveal | 2307.240546512275 | Eliezer Yudkowsky creates or reveals a public Metaculus profile before 2023? | 1672462740000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8373085526060655 | True | play | NO | public | 1653276892489 | Scrooge McDuck | Context:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records
Resolves Yes if he created, or revealed, a public Metaculus profile (i.e. where he's explicit that it's his profile) before 2023, to my knowledge. Otherwise No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.293147594620947, "platformFee": 0.8649527649942319, "liquidityFee": 5.189716589965391} | 0 | 1672549765713 | 445.1897165899654 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1672549703728 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 39 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541534}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1672459870222 | 1672549700840 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4201434162364479 | 0hAvwp8ITmqVGIVMvkns | {"NO": 944.4913669615655, "YES": 1070.749709801466} | 0.38991905417121026 | mortgage-rates-higher-in-5-years | 1068.3107117619913 | Mortgage rates higher in 5 years? | 1811055540000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0.055062218577558525 | 9.76163721785593 | False | basic | public | 1653284447049 | Jack | Resolves YES if the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average on May 22 2027 shown on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms is strictly greater than the current value of 5.25%. Here's another view of the same data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US. | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.005346448714599772} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.864671716316614, "platformFee": 0.4857915781955848, "liquidityFee": 0.2904835774948027} | 0 | 1000 | jack | 1718725040741 | 1.1 | 24 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563441}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422786524}] | ["economics-default", "housing-markets"] | 0.11229724617958171 | 0.5 | 1718725037641 | 1653580036424 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.035757027724503246 | fIctdxfFU8EBx6LQh0L6 | {"NO": 119.89112028676675, "YES": 0.24082937475298882} | 1 | will-resolve-yes | 20 | will resolve yes | 1653286665775 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.632549476745194 | True | play | YES | public | 1653286589626 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6532782793994707, "platformFee": 0.10887971323324512, "liquidityFee": 0.6532782793994707} | 0 | 1653286665775 | 100.65327827939947 | Electricitypipe | 1653286657362 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653286655666 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48365324791061215 | YGnZoelozn1QqVhQ8LmQ | {"NO": 55.53860241701677, "YES": 236.76360661022142} | 0 | will-shanghai-be-in-a-lockdown-on-1 | 436.722024700092 | Will Shanghai be in a lockdown on 1 July 2022? | 1656683940000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8115739644669575 | True | play | NO | public | 1653293294969 | Keepcalmandchill | Resolves Yes if a majority of Shanghai is in a lockdown preventing the majority of normal daily activities outside the home for a majority of people. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.724943264259983, "platformFee": 1.0133669257811178, "liquidityFee": 6.080201554686706} | 0 | 1656928547256 | 106.08020155468672 | Keepcalmandchill | 1656677894572 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656677893251 | 0.1801407477243126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.935485699119384 | 4Q3SVUFs1Z1XT9GQQFz3 | {"NO": 83.42564122033195, "YES": 98.77235480316222} | 0 | will-any-single-trader-be-able-to-m | 9243.97307611043 | Will any single trader be able to make M$100 buy buying and selling in this market? | 1653919140000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.640808458257082 | True | play | NO | public | 1653300575481 | Undox | Can be $100 in one go, or adds up to $100.
For example you buy NO, someone else buys a lot of NO, you sell NO, you realise the profits.
The unrealized "profit" reported on the market doesn't count. This is cash out minus cash in!
What I haven't made clear is what if you still have a position? Well because this is cash... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.25898090416244, "platformFee": 5.376496817360405, "liquidityFee": 32.25898090416244} | 0 | 1655375133180 | 335.0053769680219 | Undox | 1655419005593 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655333159752 | 1655419001458 | 0.9245137145569043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ymzqq1WzOoCbC4XL7zYH | which-team-will-win-the-mlb-world-s | 10070.905727850997 | Which team will win the MLB World Series in 2022? | 1667773165982 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.624779452060057 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653304080676 | David Glidden | https://www.google.com/search?q=2022+mlb+world+series | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667773165982 | 1020.0000000000002 | dglid | 1678655641058 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fcfbe8ea3aed", "prob": 0.0003768781884615182, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0005017952620805639, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.330950322274832, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Ymzqq1WzOoCbC4XL7zYH", "createdTime": 1653304080839, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 15 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404229}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1667733503429}] | ["sports-default", "please-resolve"] | 1667739832552 | 1678655638511 | {"2142dbb6d83f": 0.0014239321069134947, "faad98d9145d": 99.9985760678931} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13308129809215882 | 31gVKOD3iNwBCFKKkQtq | {"NO": 449.3503059895012, "YES": 0.7595409040018644} | 1 | this-question-will-resolve-yes-afte | 250 | This question will resolve YES after closing | 1653305094867 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.422550171643199 | True | play | YES | public | 1653304921230 | Matt P | Take the free liquidity by betting YES on this, I'm testing something out and need 3rd party bettors. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.898164062994003, "platformFee": 0.6496940104990004, "liquidityFee": 3.898164062994003} | 0 | 1653305094867 | 203.89816406299403 | MattP | 1653507085361 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1653305084958 | 1653507081063 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0907361630391398 | mQqw1jys4y6oh3woAABD | {"NO": 114.34073244382341, "YES": 237.29325846318426} | 0 | if-marcus-flowers-is-the-democratic | 238.00000000000006 | Will Marcus Flowers win the GA-14 House seat in the 2022 election? | 1667865600000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.312146505661243 | True | play | NO | public | 1653306982834 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-05-24 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 4:26pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Marcus Flowers is the Democratic nominee for GA-14,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2610879959469612, "platformFee": 0.21018133265782693, "liquidityFee": 1.2610879959469612} | 0 | 1668016605111 | 121.26108799594697 | Tetraspace | 1667862005958 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504106}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101195}] | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.1 | 1667862004348 | 1664724496846 | 0.045878553772622004 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09985640067934097 | pPh1XYWtkFzQPSxVZhJp | {"NO": 103.38623370725774, "YES": 89.34604624003285} | 0.1137630760267475 | if-holly-mccormack-is-the-democrati | 110 | If Holly McCormack is the Democratic nominee for GA-14, will she win the house seat? | 1653433140000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.610457425995178 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653307011232 | Tetra |
Close date updated to 2022-05-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653467754048 | 100.94436133485527 | Tetraspace | 1653431968581 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505496}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.1 | 1653431968396 | 0.11376307602674751 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09985640067934097 | jBdMOWHTbpLQeCQ97jN9 | {"NO": 103.38623370725774, "YES": 89.34604624003285} | 0.1137630760267475 | if-wendy-davis-is-the-democratic-no | 110 | If Wendy Davis is the Democratic nominee for GA-14, will she win the house seat? | 1653433140000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.610457425995178 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653307055651 | Tetra |
Close date updated to 2022-05-24 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653467814981 | 100.94436133485527 | Tetraspace | 1653431971991 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501601}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.1 | 1653431971823 | 0.11376307602674751 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sus6VtB89ltr7IIUAhyi | who-will-graph-the-distribution-of | 510 | Who will graph the distribution of manifold question durations for me? | 1653319395086 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.69383934725288 | True | play | 892f9b5ea71c | public | 1653310125196 | Ian Philips | I will use this info to set the default toggle durations on the create market page!
May 23, 9:21am: Wasabi pesto's dashboard: https://wasabipesto.com/jupyter/manifold/ | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24, "platformFee": 6, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653319395086 | 260 | ian | 1653319438049 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "171100ee9404", "prob": 0.026874496103198066, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7741197656816866, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.030876715333875, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Sus6VtB89ltr7IIUAhyi", "createdTime": 1653310125359, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1653319343779 | 1653319436535 | {"892f9b5ea71c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3503267706970966 | eck2Bndf1Jbu2LHGkqDR | {"NO": 101.95861338327042, "YES": 101.03495843412745} | 1 | will-steph-currys-3point-shooting-p | 30 | Will Steph Curry's 3-point shooting percentage during the 2022 NBA Finals be higher than his 3-point shooting percentage during the 2021-2022 regular season? | 1654189200000 | vP9bD7fNnKWXiCDCF5prsPT8wuj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.010036396376033 | True | play | YES | public | 1653311558704 | Steve | Now that his Golden State Warriors have a 3-0 series lead on the Dallas Mavericks, it seems all but certain that Steph Curry will play in this year's NBA Finals. The Mavericks have not figured out how to successfully defend the Warriors, Golden State's offensive strategy seems successful and sustainable, and no NBA tea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8170768479496869, "platformFee": 0.13617947465828117, "liquidityFee": 0.8170768479496869} | 0 | 1655476151835 | 100.81707684794968 | steve | 1655476146837 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405846}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.35 | 1654173657887 | 1655476145484 | 0.3524008134997343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6057768017712934 | KX5TunBwrcpi2xi82etT | {"NO": 261.5659979116034, "YES": 89.4701871161762} | 1 | will-finland-or-sweden-make-concess | 319.6591086094231 | Will Finland or Sweden make concessions to Turkey to join NATO? | 1663905540000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.437753971427028 | True | play | YES | public | 1653311970008 | Martin Randall | Resolves Yes if either or both make clear concessions on something they would not have counterfactually done if they had not applied for NATO membership.
Resolves No if they make no concessions, or if they make "concessions" that they would have done anyway, or which are meaningless.
Resolves to my probability at close... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6826903639133866, "platformFee": 0.32433893140027437, "liquidityFee": 1.946033588401646} | 0 | 1664038777028 | 141.94603358840163 | MartinRandall | 1664038769631 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416162}, {"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985427}] | ["world-default", "turkey"] | 0.5 | 1663866100993 | 1664038767417 | 0.8179285109966563 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zN892Fh6gb94Ppk1UD4m | what-will-the-sum-of-my-roll-of-two | 272 | What will the sum of my roll of two six-sided dice be? | 1653937200000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.749189784870951 | True | play | 448872d7692d | public | 1653313230704 | Matt P | I will roll 2d6 and resolve to their sum (if present as an answer) or N/A (if not present).
If there are multiple answers that fit, I will pick the single most fitting answer (aka "12" will be picked over "greater than 8").
If there are multiple answers that fit equally well (eg "12" and "twelve") I will pick the sin... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.519999999999998, "platformFee": 3.1299999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653942362835 | 1240.0000000000002 | MattP | 1653944822849 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "083578fce4ab", "prob": 0.08257365570088519, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7531583306907137, "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.478290317306104, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zN892Fh6gb94Ppk1UD4m", "createdTime": 1653313230928, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1653916704562 | 1653944822123 | {"448872d7692d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3226050291284987 | x2tlB1ATPVea11IuPp6h | {"NO": 741.3045428028254, "YES": 1.4672437911641192} | 1 | will-we-get-a-male-puppy | 1288.7206599563508 | Will we get a male puppy? | 1653429289232 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.063989885757186 | True | play | YES | public | 1653313775259 | Joel Becker | Miti and I are choosing a puppy tomorrow. Will it be male? The base rate in the litter is 5/7; my current and only dog is female, Miti's was male. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.736934468279272, "platformFee": 1.2894890780465451, "liquidityFee": 7.736934468279272} | 0 | 1653429289232 | 107.73693446827927 | JoelBecker | 1653493293521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1653428918800 | 1653493293212 | 0.7077219168742304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21237917165494716 | 8CAzOdNGzXAkWEvXgQjR | {"NO": 335.6433850813851, "YES": 909.2915784354373} | 0 | poll-do-you-want-all-betting-to-be | 1824.705100744211 | Poll: Do you want all betting to be publicly visible? | 1653973140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.360345987920726 | True | play | NO | public | 1653321997333 | SG | Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether you want all your bets across all markets you've participated in on Manifold to be publicly visible from your user page going forward in the future. **
This market will resolve YES if a majority of the votes are YES; NO if a majority are NO within a wee... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.10564334234108, "platformFee": 3.1842738903901804, "liquidityFee": 19.10564334234108} | 0 | 1654008991945 | 419.105643342341 | SG | 1654022483997 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1653961698289 | 1654022481269 | 0.09052346179713969 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.702428095379925 | YhYm1zP49D2kPDE12In4 | {"NO": 3.2527316556503063, "YES": 507.5099589778964} | 0 | can-you-make-the-chart-look-like-a | 1290.8358091979633 | Can you make the chart look like a V? | 1653537540000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.526873954333941 | True | play | NO | public | 1653322529787 | GeorgeVii | After market close, I will ask 3 people (who have not seen the market's title): "What letter were they trying to spell?". If 2 or more to respond "V" on their first guess, this market resolves to YES.
May 28, 7:04pm: Ok, First person said "E", Second person said "W". Resolved to NO (sry for tardiness) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.767082748655307, "platformFee": 1.9611804581092178, "liquidityFee": 11.767082748655307} | 0 | 1653779103770 | 111.76708274865533 | GeorgeVii | 1653529470300 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1653529468972 | 1653517213161 | 0.014903639301919281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5066850002066317 | hVH56F6M3n8S5PkOCp6U | {"NO": 1646.4426530637047, "YES": 7.459202825438297} | 1 | will-zvi-mowshowitz-reveal-he-has-c | 1694.980887741831 | Will Zvi Mowshowitz reveal he has created a discord server between now and July 1, 2022? | 1655741248223 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.277264897726151 | True | play | YES | public | 1653332865382 | Zvi Mowshowitz | You are welcome to make the case in the comments for why he should or should not do this. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.848088832494196, "platformFee": 0.5751437545743041, "liquidityFee": 3.4508625274458247} | 0 | 1655741248223 | 103.45086252744585 | ZviMowshowitz | 1655741243374 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.5 | 1655740618199 | 1655741239814 | 0.9956084215776645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7734691820682862 | J2ENoil87W2jubqDgBOT | {"NO": 7.948619752002346, "YES": 623.9569490003472} | 0 | will-bitcoin-trade-below-28000-befo | 1024.5071212068383 | Will Bitcoin trade below $28,000 before June 1, 2022? | 1654055940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.028875543832107 | True | play | NO | public | 1653334782410 | Brian T. Edwards | This question resolves YES if the bitcoin price on any market tracked by Cryptowat.ch falls below $28,000 at any time before 6/1/2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.215578756885835, "platformFee": 1.5359297928143052, "liquidityFee": 9.215578756885835} | 0 | 1654067218551 | 259.2155787568858 | BTE | 1654050452166 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1654050450836 | 0.2678971143613659 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24171958570277116 | VA9dCWyczUA2NY8tjjGc | {"NO": 47.44249675791683, "YES": 1375.6672938429735} | 0 | will-the-uk-make-btc-legal-tender-b | 1727.7610187024738 | Will the UK make BTC legal tender by 1st June 2022? | 1654027267572 | jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.783595106528032 | True | play | NO | public | 1653336282603 | John Roxton | This question will resolve 'YES' if the UK passes any legislation, or progresses legislation beyond the point where it will reasonably be passed (i.e. past Commons & Lords votes, pending royal assent) by the end of May 2022. Note that the legislation does not need to take effect before this date, merely be passed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4301247273130757, "platformFee": 0.5716874545521791, "liquidityFee": 3.4301247273130757} | 0 | 1654027267572 | 103.43012472731309 | JohnRoxton | 1654011741273 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654011739856 | 0.010873960772925519 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6431145378467195 | 4CVQ5gW7zcbeXLpAc88n | {"NO": 604.4406301995898, "YES": 57.32704006271775} | 1 | will-ok-computer-remain-the-top-alb | 553.770150904829 | Will OK Computer remain the top album of all time on RateYourMusic on January 1, 2023? | 1672551413417 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0668518887375016 | True | play | YES | public | 1653338047329 | Mvem | This market will resolve on January 1, 2023 based on whether the #1 album on [this](https://rateyourmusic.com/charts/top/album/all-time/deweight:live,archival,soundtrack/) chart is OK Computer by Radiohead.
May 23, 3:35pm: Resolves using whatever the default chart weighting is on resolution date | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.517381801189771, "platformFee": 0.1313647470173146, "liquidityFee": 0.7881884821038876} | 0 | 1672551413417 | 160.78818848210392 | Mvem | 1672549460203 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541008}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1672549460022 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5077391272439038 | ARpGSltDBGNvXmuvawyw | {"NO": 936.2327722231092, "YES": 13.382960727903992} | 1 | will-manifold-add-a-like-button-to | 1040.3630167031256 | Will Manifold add a "like" button to comments by July 1st? | 1655567430153 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.540637311423273 | True | play | YES | public | 1653340398273 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if I can like the comments on this post by July 1st. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.256404673410783, "platformFee": 0.6942222974305845, "liquidityFee": 4.165333784583506} | 0 | 1655567430153 | 104.16533378458351 | BTE | 1655567401891 | 0 | 9 | 0 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1655567401657 | 1653361898276 | 0.6220626634307048 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FcZ4qzRacELJVHDRHXkG | which-photos-will-i-have-edited-and | 413 | Which photos will I have edited and use for my profiles? | 1654466340000 | JGhwTRLVy7OnGhP7k9u0SMo2KrH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7080378209524785 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653340596905 | Martin | I'll probably pay out MULTI. I plan to 55-70% to the photo I pick for my profiles after editing, and 15-30% to the photos I submit for editing. I might pay out something for photos my friends or the photographer like but which don't make the cut for editing.
The ante will be used to make this market lucrative for you.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.240000000000002, "platformFee": 4.0600000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659533885039 | 520 | MM | 1658083333040 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "102f2874253d", "prob": 0.03799839646766907, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6796769097148395, "userId": "JGhwTRLVy7OnGhP7k9u0SMo2KrH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.207312355559615, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FcZ4qzRacELJVHDRHXkG", "createdTime": 1653340596989, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1654458708306 | 1658083326296 | {"12fd8fc3aa7d": 64.71436994323963, "13616a7f7341": 4.97802845717228, "1c1a8db23ab9": 4.97802845717228, "8697ac618414": 19.91211382868912, "d7fa3c4c0057": 5.417459313726696} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6NnblDVLqAQv99CYsGL8 | what-statement-will-i-think-you-don | 151 | What statement will I think you don't believe that I believe, but I do? | 1653883140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.827329801859904 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653340914670 | Duncn | Post a statement. If I believe it is true, but I think that most people would guess that I do not believe that it is true, I will chose it as a correct answer. (I will not count your posting it as evidence that you, or people in general, believe it of me).
If I do not know or understand what you are talking about, I ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.36, "platformFee": 2.09, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653909552473 | 620 | Duncn | 1653882440054 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4b00e1eeab11", "prob": 0.2246131039284832, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.857904785393014, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.12627310965522, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6NnblDVLqAQv99CYsGL8", "createdTime": 1653340914841, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1653882438565 | 1653348319923 | {"5014b534450e": 59.29054054054055, "e67c98ea584a": 40.70945945945947} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.018764307204591473 | spr6U2SuT5OrciphuBrY | {"NO": 140.42346363490444, "YES": 100.77378979905056} | 0 | will-we-find-a-closed-form-for-the | 360.3765640354755 | Will we find a closed form for the expected number of moves in eidetic single-player Memory? | 1676534340000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.92267386975664 | True | play | NO | public | 1653342755092 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Consider the single-player version of Memory, where you try to uncover matching pairs of cards by flipping over two at a time. If they match, remove them -- if not, put them back. And assume you have a perfect memory and play perfectly. Given p pai... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4595749225814756, "platformFee": 0.09415078288471215, "liquidityFee": 0.564904697308273} | 0 | 1678293799451 | 140.5649046973083 | dreev | 1675276018863 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 13 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535247}] | ["science-default"] | 0.01 | 1668585514166 | 1675276013338 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38840188897435135 | pzlWZIQDZ0peGelYYfVB | {"NO": 50.79821565802522, "YES": 373.09054617788786} | 0 | will-the-summer-heat-in-2022-betwee | 316.58010034246445 | Will the summer heat in 2022 between 25 and 45 degree north in the United States cause power grid black outs that kill >1000 people by the end of August? | 1663334306918 | QBnj7MaZCbf81ildFCqTwE08Eyv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.189702528459158 | True | play | NO | public | 1653345218896 | Em | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NERC, a regulating authority that oversees the health of the nation’s electrical infrastructure, says in its 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment that extreme temperatures and ongoing drought could cause the power grid to buckle. High temperatures, w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.6672738516349455, "platformFee": 0.3106686687733684, "liquidityFee": 1.8640120126402104} | 0 | 1663334306918 | 121.86401201264022 | ES221712 | 1663224910375 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505935}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1663224910114 | 0.07958531678375007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27404132424954103 | emGTZSiCdt8j7eHgDkY1 | {"NO": 70.98856964793995, "YES": 2652.942138430121} | 0 | will-there-be-price-controls-in-the | 12445.298062851758 | Will there be price controls in the US in 2022? | 1672950578588 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2587978612523605 | True | play | NO | public | 1653351132244 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If say this law passes: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7688/text Or some otherway. #Politics Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.89593573506484, "platformFee": 1.2963516358070994, "liquidityFee": 7.778109814842599} | 0 | 1672950578588 | 207.77810981484254 | TimP | 1672951087481 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 2 | 21 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497606}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572902}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g... | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "global-macro", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1672950316410 | 1672951082687 | False | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17832966832679384 | AWwzv0OZj8dSGyvmVJ2N | {"NO": 350.62042064751984, "YES": 242.4007274808617} | 0 | did-i-get-a-stomachache-after-an-en | 735.4270135013121 | Did I get a stomachache after an "energy damage" circle? | 1653505350236 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8274137658567189 | True | play | NO | public | 1653351583260 | Aella | I asked a bunch of my friends to surround me and project damaging energy onto me, with the concrete goal of giving me a stomach ache. They did this for approximately 1 minute, complete with yelling and aggressive noises.
Would you guess I did or did not develop a stomachache in the 3 hours after this experience?
(my ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.134656249209574, "platformFee": 2.689109374868263, "liquidityFee": 16.134656249209574} | 0 | 1653505350236 | 316.1346562492095 | Aella | 1653474227686 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.25 | 1653474226295 | 1653361830349 | 0.23892296722058895 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24941830188490519 | LDReXJgCyD5KwcKoTHhS | {"NO": 45.53640625272976, "YES": 1139.4103279752092} | 0 | will-mm-remove-3rdparty-trackers-fr | 1259.6233852381174 | Will MM remove 3rd-party trackers from their font end code | 1655992740000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.7705754006181005 | True | play | NO | public | 1653352663944 | Undox | Resolves YES if when the market closes, there are no network requests to trackers, like https://www.googletagmanager.com. It still resolves YES if they call a tracker they host.
I am guilty of slapping on GA onto sites, but it is nice from a privacy point of view if we don't. Also you might get better quality stats: F... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.655042243849154, "platformFee": 0.13775109143516162, "liquidityFee": 0.8265065486109696} | 0 | 1689594276889 | 100.82650654861096 | Undox | 1655986694759 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0.25 | 1655986692676 | 1653352815806 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06312719763315827 | 2LZIFjVgKflNLU6LU1vt | {"NO": 138.15860824814817, "YES": 206.9594007591109} | 0 | will-this-rather-satirical-randomiz | 176.05663985410442 | Will this rather satirical randomized controlled trial be retracted by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.815574792645972 | True | play | NO | public | 1653353524348 | Research.Bet | This market resolves to "Yes" if the following paper is retracted in 2022:
Geller JE, Strickland PO, Bucher JT. The use of the word “quiet” in the emergency department is not associated with patient volume: A randomized controlled trial. The American Journal of Emergency Medicine. 2022 Jun 1;56:10-2. https://www.scien... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9698943637076091, "platformFee": 0.16164906061793485, "liquidityFee": 0.9698943637076091} | 0 | 1672871818707 | 140.9698943637076 | ResearchBet | 1668382849641 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522026}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537324}] | ["researchbet", "science-default"] | 0.07 | 1668382849531 | 1653403871169 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sOQRZptvtPhRow8ETc1h | when-will-ukraine-regain-control-of | 64804.24905173221 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | 1668814273322 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.616415878947081 | True | basic | 84f5452eff5c | public | 1653353672102 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10850/date-of-ukrainian-liberation-of-kherson/
Acceptable answers: month and year, i.e. "May 2022"
If Ukraine does not regain control of the city as defined above by January 1, 2024, the question will resolve as "Not before 2024". | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668814273322 | 3599.9999999999995 | MetaculusBot | 1668803722148 | 0 | 54 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "868db0b5b2f7", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.739417412827881e-05, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5738843471086598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sOQRZptvtPhRow8ETc1h", "createdTime": 1653353672354, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 54 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662853435788}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1662853433983}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukra... | ["world-default", "ukraine", "russia", "wars", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1668803722001 | 1668265741756 | False | {"84f5452eff5c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47252422053290694 | 9OMS3k0EmF5YyAoaZleV | {"NO": 16.838797527735096, "YES": 1422.9886105829062} | 0 | will-russia-formally-declare-war-wi | 2713.2127330801513 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | 1659326340000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.22824794295864 | True | play | NO | public | 1653353813690 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/russian-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine-2022/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.911225222146502, "platformFee": 2.2268923030630967, "liquidityFee": 13.361353818378575} | 0 | 1659366129791 | 183.0395151869131 | MetaculusBot | 1659292252459 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529413890}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371673}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war",... | ["world-default", "metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.14 | 1659292251270 | False | 0.010489424056664158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2653872372516168 | wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t | {"NO": 16076.409968996795, "YES": 11791.566365523135} | 0.33 | will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas | 252792.98620292795 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? | 1893473940000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0.01354855666605818 | 1.3858367597184458 | False | plus | public | 1653354082390 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.00247999137315591, "month": 0.0014907838076169133} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 751.3316744538765, "platformFee": 204.40401076619327, "liquidityFee": 6.1881639823698045} | 63 | 14951.18816398237 | MetaculusBot | 1720247453723 | 1.3 | 33 | 615 | 2 | 70 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422749}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561806}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4B... | ["china", "world-default", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "metaculus", "asia", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict"] | 0.1742577211224768 | 0.23 | 1720247450526 | 1717754431614 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15197798428126866 | 4Rwg6txPTkSSByWsK8cL | {"NO": 110.05607120502464, "YES": 2725.1293357743175} | 0 | will-the-us-cdc-recommend-use-of-a | 2974.7773474524524 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population before 2023? | 1672549140000 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.026487353585258 | True | play | NO | public | 1653354147197 | Metaculus Bot | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10986/vaccine-used-against-monkeypox-in-us/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4752680469402204, "platformFee": 0.13714788394481253, "liquidityFee": 0.8228873036688751} | 0 | 1674343054344 | 180.82288730366886 | MetaculusBot | 1672833030410 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 12 | [{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1660362367746}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946147}, {"name": "Science"... | ["science-default", "medicine", "monkeypox", "please-resolve", "metaculus"] | 0.2 | 1671980447761 | 1672833027017 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06407204851062341 | NDqpWJlBAJJDLpXvpxVk | {"NO": 953.5139866449528, "YES": 1454.4686963309257} | 0.04295192523721146 | will-humans-land-on-mars-by-2028 | 645.9819504009984 | Will humans land on mars by 2028? | 1830412740000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1653363748463 | Rahul Sridhar | Hank and John Green have a semi-famous bet on their podcast on this topic. Hank wins (and this market resolves YES) if any human has stepped foot on Mars by January 1st 2028. John wins (and this market resolves NO) otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": 2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": 2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8600969224589274, "platformFee": 0.2444024648839287, "liquidityFee": 1.4664147893035724} | 0 | 1000 | fortenforge | 1684335258914 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527731}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659037736944}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1... | ["science-default", "space", "mars"] | 0.25 | 1684335258752 | 1653368123637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | kXoJ62y3itLw5GD9UEtx | {"NO": 96.07689228305217, "YES": 104.08329997330661} | 1 | will-i-replace-pythonjax-with-julia | 561.3370047199872 | Will I replace python+jax with Julia? | 1664610532122 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9937834804856651 | True | play | YES | public | 1653368337016 | Scott Lawrence | I regularly use python+jax for physics simulation tasks, particularly where any machine learning is involved, or where automatic differentiation is (or is likely to become) useful. Else I prefer fortran/C++, depending on exact circumstances. These are typically small/medium-scale projects with 500-10,000 lines of code.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.944344793777897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664610532122 | 100 | ScottLawrence | 1664621482928 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453103}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1664590492260 | 1664621476000 | 0.48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oxFdEiUu00HBIBuOV7mo | which-nfl-team-will-win-the-2023-su | 2358.0591261406316 | Which NFL team will win the 2023 Super Bowl? | 1672646340000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6498597195352716 | True | basic | 37f63963b720 | public | 1653369561977 | Richard | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.07909158707313055, "platformFee": 0.019772896768282637, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676744103586 | 2380.0000000000014 | Richard | 1676744095796 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 29 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e2272f49510a", "prob": 0.005001928756808188, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.020941005148283263, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.165645043239591, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oxFdEiUu00HBIBuOV7mo", "createdTime": 1653369562036, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 10 | 32 | [{"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1670952550933}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407952}, {"name": "Superbowl LVII", "slug": "superbowl-lvii", "userId": "TUk0E... | ["sports-default", "nfl", "superbowl-lvii"] | 1672639531557 | 1676744094547 | {"37f63963b720": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39898607957529353 | yEuP4lQzoiZBYAr6yz8K | {"NO": 27.03977365740689, "YES": 3533.816869753373} | 0 | the-prime-factors-of-n-are-both-2-m | 7582.880457363569 | The prime factors of N are both 2 mod 3, where N = 11796873418585290911112279317945804442974883360967149295609923666345445802116748352310366504318684989634056666870908221663029918608386872647440301423045057652749833605639951750037369964838450301421800797298428167637644307788395558051987315335121147349207472633121486695... | 1653692421580 | iNWIzJOlO1Ykrfyp8yaW9vdA21f2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8885961145668246 | True | play | NO | public | 1653370484120 | Phi Φ | N is a number that I generated by multiplying together two large primes. N = 1 mod 3, so therefore the prime factors of N must either:
- Both be 1 mod 3 (question resolves to no)
- Both be 2 mod 3 (question resolves to yes) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.377459420647995, "platformFee": 7.729576570108001, "liquidityFee": 46.377459420647995} | 0 | 1653692421580 | 146.37745942064797 | Phi | 1653693427957 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzxWnBKqiNTEau9Ku37_OexLgPmiblXL0AkhU8=s96-c | 15 | 0 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672333594579}] | ["mathematics"] | 0.5 | 1653630121817 | 1653693423775 | 0.005053959448034371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35446256801169423 | iXH6DJ5bQxQ5i9rfisHU | {"NO": 177.97021093093463, "YES": 189.69735828453054} | 0.3400000000000002 | will-the-us-fed-funds-rate-in-10-ye | 142.53835513085693 | Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%? | 1968994740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653371484177 | Jack | Resolves YES if the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS on May 23 2032 is greater than 4%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05210324774195885} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2448086887486567, "platformFee": 0.25687178298543245, "liquidityFee": 1.5412306979125945} | 0 | 181.54123069791257 | jack | 1719605660851 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573774}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.4 | 1719605657671 | 1653712385651 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04999069772199662 | 7DcNVvYPTjcr2aKhQ7cR | {"NO": 99.25535719854528, "YES": 119.96892127831725} | 0.04171950913039776 | will-tom-cruise-die-during-filming | 190.5625476745986 | Will Tom Cruise die during filming of Mission Impossible VIII? | 1735718340000 | z8RRHAzVe5bYW4Y8F34IEYUBGVq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1653372556133 | Frogs | Mission Impossible 8 started filming in late March of 2022; it is confirmed to be the last Mission Impossible movie (or at least the last one starring Cruise). Cruise is pushing 60, and continuing to do increasingly dangerous stunts. This will resolve to YES if Cruise dies at any time during, and as a direct consequenc... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.434812534955291, "platformFee": 0.030732481114107535, "liquidityFee": 0.10013441269166484} | 0 | 100.10013441269169 | Frogs | 1714424998657 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GircJifFYjj9y9-1ss8GMLZIrslp4w5aFD3i-8FMg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 58 | 7 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541379}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.05 | 1714424995287 | 1704140836050 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4899298979976612 | wmzxVT938YUq9IgiH7Hv | {"NO": 94.50031493074029, "YES": 125.11178851166905} | 1 | will-i-exceed-my-daily-calorie-inta | 168 | Will I exceed my daily calorie intake limit by more than 1000 kJ? | 1653448380675 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6249202569262655 | True | play | YES | public | 1653374011532 | Rai | Resolves N/A if for some unlikely reason I don't track my eating properly tomorrow. Otherwise resolves to YES if my MyFitnessPal is over 1000 kJ over my energy allowance by midnight tomorrow.
I've been eating too much last couple weeks, related to stress from moving.
Today was the first day in like a week or so that ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.219503517530687, "platformFee": 0.7032505862551147, "liquidityFee": 4.219503517530687} | 0 | 1653448380675 | 104.21950351753068 | agentydragon | 1653448412494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653443979898 | 1653448413034 | 0.4204587819056089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4996737573105573 | 6rwpKAFU4SNIj8UmWvmp | {"NO": 88.39926467924761, "YES": 121.32725211580663} | 1 | ill-have-bought-a-plane-ticket-to-b | 61 | I'll have bought a plane ticket to BLFC by tomorrow midnight | 1653437496173 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.715905612842034 | True | play | YES | public | 1653374693433 | Rai | Travelling to biggest little fur con, need to buy plane ticket because no ride-share arrangement yet. Market resolves to whether I get that done by midnight tomorrow my time (Pacific). Probably will also require requesting extra day off work. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7760094516119163, "platformFee": 0.29600157526865273, "liquidityFee": 1.7760094516119163} | 0 | 1653437496173 | 101.77600945161191 | agentydragon | 1653443444621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1653422091879 | 1653443443271 | 0.42117962832882094 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8882723479580468 | YYnTKbe7Ak8mQ2HNwxSV | {"NO": 523.14282203854, "YES": 66.64795229526803} | 1 | will-bitcoin-trade-below-20000-befo | 910.8893410269446 | Will bitcoin trade below $20,000 before 2023? | 1655558020962 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.399540477790538 | True | play | YES | public | 1653376275082 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if bitcoin falls below $20K prior to midnight on 12/31/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.500841630922922, "platformFee": 1.5522056043694132, "liquidityFee": 9.313233626216478} | 0 | 1655558020962 | 158.312854462505 | BTE | 1655540164683 | 0 | 15 | 0 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1655540161104 | 1655297101313 | 0.984228356829074 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1fcsyDXQSdzYMJB5ymkC | which-answer-will-have-the-lowest-c | 265.1045007824636 | Which answer will have the lowest chance? | 1653505307536 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7503169096645586 | True | basic | ba4e59900767 | public | 1653376593538 | Aella | I will resolve this question in one day with the answer that gets the lowest odds. I will only resolve according to one of the four answers I submit. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.719999999999994, "platformFee": 2.9299999999999984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653505307536 | 1280 | Aella | 1653505149157 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4b0e63fcca54", "prob": 0.08406688317541643, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.4740952233526707, "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.955986277232416, "textFts": "", "contractId": "1fcsyDXQSdzYMJB5ymkC", "createdTime": 1653376593778, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1653505149000 | 1653439644805 | {"ba4e59900767": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4372372013297202 | eMmG2xiFqbnPjcPlqKIb | {"NO": 45.78047127121829, "YES": 1326.3269034554432} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-add-a-dark-mo | 1822.6475480261083 | Will Manifold Markets add a dark mode? | 1656626340000 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7781714665076596 | True | play | NO | public | 1653376915829 | Milli | This market resolves "YES" when a dark mode is added or when the market closes and the feature is announced.
Otherwise it resolves "NO" on close. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.78530188899638, "platformFee": 2.6502531484181504, "liquidityFee": 15.901518890508902} | 0 | 1656660696720 | 200.00010790759552 | Milli | 1656604356878 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656604355563 | 0.026117287029379786 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6496748268671693 | OpG27xxQmcxBMKKjrogc | {"NO": 1762.1000180841413, "YES": 23.86058047910379} | 1 | will-mario-draghi-be-the-italian-pr | 5689.7046306710245 | Will Mario Draghi be the Italian prime minister on the 1st of October 2022? | 1664605106887 | SQm28sz6DucKfHopUB0RijHe1NC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9621905926137346 | True | play | YES | public | 1653386110446 | Daniele | The questione resolve to yes if Mario Draghi formally still holds the title that day. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.405234668917892, "platformFee": 1.7472628365857659, "liquidityFee": 10.483577019514595} | 0 | 1664605106887 | 110.48357701951457 | Biscarat | 1664597407160 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyCcriyvnwHPoeDB5g2PJVMk47yXFKOUqDSHgfI=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484231}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406876}] | ["politics-default", "stefans-group"] | 0.8 | 1664597407063 | 1658349082108 | 0.9927511990296816 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5407937358532626 | n7Ju2n949mq4Kn1q59p7 | {"NO": 1470.3579206394934, "YES": 12.507080019246132} | 1 | will-tsla-finish-the-week-above-700-3b9d6f313df5 | 2022.9116377215457 | Will TSLA finish the week above $700? | 1653678000000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.9054041923481915 | True | play | YES | public | 1653390871859 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if TSLA closes above $700 on 5/27/22.
May 25, 9:31pm: Closed today $658.80.
Close date updated to 2022-05-27 3:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.16349371189927, "platformFee": 1.1939156186498783, "liquidityFee": 7.16349371189927} | 0 | 1653681785301 | 107.16349371189929 | BTE | 1653677706962 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575348}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653677705632 | 0.9928289385890197 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13687734550626857 | oYPWL6ooZs2FtDmrUZT0 | {"NO": 199.65754950263562, "YES": 1.0194784204454193} | 1 | i-will-resolve-this-question-yes | 100 | I will resolve this question YES | 1653393406702 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.182341169073274 | True | play | YES | public | 1653393387840 | Matt P | Banking daily M$100 for use on later markets | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.054702984186522, "platformFee": 0.34245049736442035, "liquidityFee": 2.054702984186522} | 0 | 1653393406702 | 102.05470298418652 | MattP | 1653393402877 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1653393401437 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.019311664349231313 | 0SCUWnV4nqRF6ps7Qeu3 | {"NO": 109.9099642723565, "YES": 1.103446817543153} | 1 | will-resolve-true | 10 | will resolve true | 1653395524200 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.226295368037949 | True | play | YES | public | 1653395498687 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5402143658610141, "platformFee": 0.09003572764350236, "liquidityFee": 0.5402143658610141} | 0 | 1653395524200 | 100.54021436586102 | Electricitypipe | 1653395518188 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653395516572 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.041879632217802415 | Yq84IROWgzYkY3a9s3zk | {"NO": 558.4794262309481, "YES": 11989.135154985985} | 0 | will-russia-invade-finland-or-swede | 20325.669014612307 | Will Russia invade Finland or Sweden before they join NATO? | 1709841413219 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0.24847005755569251 | 3.029662009260058 | True | play | NO | public | 1653396447386 | Martin Randall | Resolves Yes if Russia invades Finland or Sweden with ground troops.
Resolves No if Finland and Sweden are both members of NATO.
Small print: I will not trade in this market. If neither condition occurs at market close I may resolve N/A or extend the close date. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.168705469984802, "platformFee": 1.0314730483661927, "liquidityFee": 6.188838290197156} | 0 | 1709841413219 | 666.1888382901972 | MartinRandall | 1709841415715 | 1.2 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418881}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "groupId": "jx3BNdPVFyaq7blARtkJ", "createdTime": 1669119919986}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "grou... | ["world-default", "sweden", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.1871920614175169 | 0.25 | 1709837030171 | 1709837267917 | False | 0 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZhfeQQ4BsxfnnqFuzE0P | who-will-be-elected-president-of-ke | 380 | Who will be elected president of Kenya in the August general election? | 1659999540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.71411324648495 | True | play | d13739942861 | public | 1653396522843 | Manifold | For a response to be valid it must be the name of an individual candidate.
See details and list of candidates here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kenyan_general_election | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.200000000000001, "platformFee": 3.8000000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661148537936 | 340.00000000000006 | Manifold | 1660875619976 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "140896adf024", "prob": 0.043402777777777776, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6024844319878369, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.31875688101193, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZhfeQQ4BsxfnnqFuzE0P", "createdTime": 1653396522925, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493572}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}] | ["politics-default", "global-macro"] | 1659983046001 | 1660875618858 | {"d13739942861": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vSczTQ8CpBiVXkslbgVn | who-will-be-elected-the-prime-minis | 475 | Who will be elected the Prime Minister of Sweden in the September general election? | 1662850740000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.70769350894042 | True | play | 80e1b2ccee09 | public | 1653396719878 | Manifold | For a response to be valid it must be the name of an individual candidate.
See here for more details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Swedish_general_election | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663291578310 | 460 | Manifold | 1663311060063 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d016f4718e6d", "prob": 0.03770383636535017, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.044845246761981, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.667062810482662, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vSczTQ8CpBiVXkslbgVn", "createdTime": 1653396720168, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1663305609057}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510731}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "swede... | ["politics-default", "improperly-resolved", "sweden"] | 1662668793353 | 1663311057178 | {"80e1b2ccee09": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2325933091551947 | kt7tQVNLfCCKb7Y85o2s | {"NO": 103.6612824801814, "YES": 20326.934820159706} | 0 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-e388b01e8cf3 | 27363.239303676135 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Wisconsin? | 1668021727617 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7244839334848536 | True | play | NO | public | 1653396929390 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-10 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.382495753681088, "platformFee": 0.23041595894684802, "liquidityFee": 1.382495753681088} | 0 | 1668021727617 | 381.3824957536811 | NcyRocks | 1668021716403 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983497}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502988}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1668021716227 | 1665742151114 | 0.0392563922254165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40300924683515865 | xk69kkxYGcXBrnZLCM1Z | {"NO": 37.25121192127847, "YES": 1672.9777817610004} | 0 | will-adam-kinzinger-run-for-preside | 1893.2081280936045 | Will Adam Kinzinger run for president in 2024? | 1685912439292 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3332231040360822 | True | play | NO | public | 1653399647194 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if Rep Adam Kinzinger officially declares his candidacy for the 2024 GOP nomination. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4815523785984404, "platformFee": 0.12116896950614897, "liquidityFee": 0.7270138170368938} | 0 | 1685912439292 | 180.7270138170369 | BTE | 1685912434973 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582516}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512755}, {"name": "2024 GOP Primaries", "slug": "2024-gop-primar... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "2024-gop-primaries"] | 0.5 | 1685912434859 | 1682170439973 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5wQM6UJtKGGyoRjX90Pl | what-question-should-the-main-accou | 110 | What question should the main account create markets for in June? | 1656025140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.828237724912245 | True | play | MKT | public | 1653403321631 | Manifold | Feel free to respond with any ideas for questions you think would be good to ask from the main account.
The aim of this would be to make sure the most impactful question receive the highest visibility and can be credible resolved. We definitely encourage you to make the market yourself though!
We will probably resolv... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661779015876 | 719.9999999999998 | Manifold | 1662220375102 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0a774c9bac0", "prob": 0.22675736961451248, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.64064001515178, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.054582451667567, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5wQM6UJtKGGyoRjX90Pl", "createdTime": 1653403321879, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849877}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7N... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "improperly-resolved"] | 1656015814775 | 1662220372271 | {"246c08f21015": 33.333333333333336, "bcbed6d6793c": 34.72222222222222, "d08bf48c1836": 31.944444444444443} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.533356267103267 | TmbPcXNSf9Pmw5BKOUuJ | {"NO": 280.12844946102194, "YES": 71.71578645499326} | 0 | will-russia-prevent-a-group-or-all | 542.3231814360541 | Will Russia prevent a group or all of their citizens from leaving the country, before then end of 2022. | 1672549140000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.443424115360624 | True | play | NO | public | 1653403584861 | littlebubulle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES is Russia prevents a group like able bodied males, or all of their citizens from leaving the country for any reason. Groups can include specific ethnicities, foreigners, etc. Preventing a large number of specific indiv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.552758274803874, "platformFee": 0.16524704746095673, "liquidityFee": 0.9914822847657405} | 0 | 1672549575848 | 140.99148228476574 | littlebubulle | 1669712520824 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488501}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226731}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1669712520649 | 1665681176733 | False | 0.82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4973596524885555 | I73XirQGznlYuvG1Qb8E | {"NO": 66.3217963087359, "YES": 159.77489760831486} | 0 | the-2022-state-of-js-survey-lists-r-3291ac220f6a | 68.8999384698969 | The 2022 state of js survey lists rescript higher than clojurescript | 1672549140000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8155661406492167 | True | play | NO | public | 1653406326047 | Quinn | In 2021, clojurescript was at 0.9% and rescript was at 0.4%. https://2021.stateofjs.com/en-US/other-tools/#javascript_flavors
Market closes at end of 2022 and resolves whenever stateofjs is published. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3506143501106314, "platformFee": 0.22510239168510526, "liquidityFee": 1.3506143501106314} | 0 | 1695822130755 | 101.35061435011063 | Quinn | 1695822170321 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 54 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446299}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072100}] | ["technology-default", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1667245243656 | 1695822168667 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25 | y7dX73vzlYwS5n7fKVK4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25 | does-naing-a-market-just-give-me-fr | 0 | Does N/Aing a market just give me free mana? | 1653406558576 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.696784962986375 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653406549414 | Austin | Not that likely due, due to EMH (if it were, people wouldn't bother betting in their own daily free markets) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653406558576 | 100 | Austin | 1653406607993 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1653406606363 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5039433525602682 | k6VdR19s9SqvQFuovCcj | {"NO": 438.4512596156491, "YES": 27.47735536581054} | 1 | ethereum-foundation-announces-mainn | 644.604354238228 | Ethereum Foundation announces mainnet merge date by November | 1660328548434 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5012323565731838 | True | play | YES | public | 1653406590522 | Bolton Bailey | This resolves to Yes if the Ethereum Foundation, on their blog at https://blog.ethereum.org/, announces a date for the merge before November 1st. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.38248164223689, "platformFee": 0.7141589000928588, "liquidityFee": 4.284953400557153} | 0 | 1660328548434 | 104.28495340055714 | BoltonBailey | 1660328530393 | 0 | 12 | 0 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658678973097}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 16656... | ["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.5 | 1660327996540 | 1660328528904 | 0.9068165198206012 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.319393506800561 | d1aYljXqZHuAp5RpB8hu | {"NO": 274.01396081204564, "YES": 14.604044461084426} | 0 | will-miti-come-back-to-nassau-via-b | 205 | Will Miti come back to Nassau via Boston? | 1655265540000 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.001061068610707 | True | play | NO | public | 1653407997176 | Joel Becker | I live in Nassau; my girlfriend, Miti, lives/works in Boston. She plans to spend a lot of time here. (She is currently visiting for ~4 weeks, and will visit again very soon for ~4 weeks.)
Miti plans to collect our new puppy from Utah on June 7. She will then fly to California to meet her brother (and me). Her and I wi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.236175580368319, "platformFee": 0.8726959300613866, "liquidityFee": 5.236175580368319} | 0 | 1660264927130 | 105.23617558036833 | JoelBecker | 1660288025427 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1655131997472 | 1660288020676 | 0.8980112563678003 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8297922375994228 | LqwOvLHUeZwGtZjpkI0w | {"NO": 953.561111812857, "YES": 606.6284373016931} | 0.8845705315817622 | is-long-covid-real | 4492.516497075776 | Is Long Covid real? | 1684997940000 | IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0166677914920161 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653409611854 | Rahul Sridhar | Question is phrased provocatively; the more precise question I'm asking is: will there be convincing evidence that Long Covid is a non-psychosomatic condition by market close date?
Some events that would lead me to resolve YES:
* If someone identifies a specific biomarker associated with Long Covid
* If someone disc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685210434921 | 732.0660211927067 | fortenforge | 1685316354709 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi96wTFrLgkUl7bk_fDFKF342flNyjDQiMBMTWK6w=s96-c | 1 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 42 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527363}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}] | ["science-default", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 1684997055349 | 1685316351499 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7555219075855272 | 0FAJAfWknPeJY2B27NOS | {"NO": 1025.467542102527, "YES": 988.1872459458749} | 0.7622971002715365 | will-the-next-us-president-to-be-in | 725.5292801468656 | Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote? | 1737446340000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59798845350614 | False | basic | public | 1653409633757 | Eric | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.181365580458666, "platformFee": 0.9124548048342944, "liquidityFee": 1.9597803062246777} | 0 | 1000 | theincredibleholk | 1716346511115 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529466741}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864135}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.09692367871763506 | 0.75 | 1716346507740 | 1680257581488 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6690910125735304 | 39VF5Ja8mK0t12eA0g34 | {"NO": 887.5499280992225, "YES": 40.39648987558927} | 1 | will-leonis-cap-fulfill-their-secon | 920 | Will Leonis Cap fulfill their second $200k commitment to Manifold? | 1655165448774 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9241257498662017 | True | play | YES | public | 1653409638002 | Austin | James and I have a friendly bet ongoing on this, my M$ 10k to his M$ 5k on YES vs NO.
I'm happy to put any amount of money into this at 2:1 odds, for anyone else interested in participating.
May 24, 9:27am: Any amount up to $10k USD, I guess. Could possibly go higher but would have to think about it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.140725855083759, "platformFee": 1.0234543091806265, "liquidityFee": 6.140725855083759} | 0 | 1655165448774 | 106.14072585508376 | Austin | 1654217671951 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.66 | 1654217472396 | 1654217669826 | 0.9779856094089975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OURfSqCgPIIP7HSjpSc0 | who-will-win-the-monaco-gp | 12140 | Who will win the Monaco GP? | 1654003440498 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619196997151101 | True | play | 0e0e619543f6 | public | 1653411717427 | Predictor 🔥 | Who will win the Monaco GP in 2022?
https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Monaco.html
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.400000000000064, "platformFee": 2.600000000000016, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654003440498 | 360 | Predictor | 1654003432388 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d39999ca1f03", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00014000700052504376, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3999299982499125, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OURfSqCgPIIP7HSjpSc0", "createdTime": 1653411717551, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month"... | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401312}] | ["sports-default"] | 1654003430866 | {"0e0e619543f6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4869077080151811 | RsJlH2vW1ApWGi0lXPzN | {"NO": 1.9477134518623926, "YES": 11056.351069526007} | 0 | will-apple-show-off-its-arvr-headse | 11344.662768227834 | Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset at WWDC 2022? | 1654542213970 | wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.725267453963342 | True | play | NO | public | 1653412092045 | Trent Yazzo | https://developer.apple.com/wwdc22/
Close date updated to 2022-06-06 3:05 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.635288635208212, "platformFee": 3.272548105868036, "liquidityFee": 19.635288635208212} | 0 | 1654542213970 | 119.63528863520824 | kazoo | 1654542191820 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448587}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1654542190590 | 0.6180445130537416 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7085503283424053 | LqrDStNuG1zLY3h7abuw | {"NO": 0.0001758822504064067, "YES": 12397.644842504104} | 0 | will-the-driver-starting-in-pole-po | 12330 | Will the driver starting in pole position also win the 2022 Monaco GP? | 1654003637929 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.812079298600142 | True | play | NO | public | 1653412642046 | Predictor 🔥 | https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Monaco.html
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7280327341683828, "platformFee": 0.4546721223613971, "liquidityFee": 2.7280327341683828} | 0 | 1654003637929 | 102.72803273416838 | Predictor | 1654003617285 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400730}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.75 | 1654003616070 | 0.36444493413775797 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7019562259951072 | vxohJohxCsvahtYM0sd6 | {"NO": 437.67765083853607, "YES": 128.68411524596408} | 1 | will-there-be-a-text-andor-image-ge | 348.7479020807227 | Will there be a text and/or image generating NN with at least 175 billion parameters that is open source by end of 2023? | 1698561455768 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.222330172898861 | True | play | YES | public | 1653415813623 | DAL59 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0908762014779496, "platformFee": 0.18181270024632495, "liquidityFee": 1.0908762014779496} | 0 | 1698561455768 | 201.09087620147795 | DAL59 | 1698335013986 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536275}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908918}] | ["science-default", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1698335013807 | 1697928977336 | False | 0.89 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.028384462353372247 | Ooy2I9nu2WodYBwmbTwc | {"NO": 1272.8999176122989, "YES": 3.670383423582} | 1 | will-this-market-replicate-the-bug | 1183 | Will this market replicate the bug with nonmonotone pricing? | 1653418917135 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.102919933749251 | True | play | YES | public | 1653417141112 | Daniel Reeves | This is a test. But also for real! When I create this market, will the market probability exhibit the nonmonotonicity described in this GitHub Issue:
https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/issues/322 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.600494326204554, "platformFee": 10.100082387700759, "liquidityFee": 60.600494326204554} | 0 | 1653418917135 | 160.6004943262045 | dreev | 1653418901696 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653418331293 | 1653418897877 | 0.9101639618683051 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5638551673138392 | o9y2zV3HSC9KutS0SCAO | {"NO": 9.474676991274123, "YES": 777.3124751426772} | 0 | will-we-have-more-than-150-ideas-on | 1145.9686640555653 | Will we have more than 150 ideas on aisafetyideas.com within the next two weeks? | 1654633001445 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.617370604871292 | True | play | NO | public | 1653418829683 | Apart Research | aisafetyideas.com is a platform for AI safety & governance ideas to spread and be stored. See also https://manifold.markets/kran/will-aisafetyideascom-reach-200000.
I will update the /open page (https://aisafetyideas.com/open) with a live metric of the amount of shovel-ready and filtered AI safety project ideas we ha... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.089179998379262, "platformFee": 1.3481966663965435, "liquidityFee": 8.089179998379262} | 0 | 1654633001445 | 108.08917999837922 | apartresearch | 1654633042774 | 0 | 12 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454020}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.58 | 1654568970376 | 1654633039099 | 0.015513696362442028 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6577063362508667 | 3sBTcu2MHsju6qlQMXBZ | {"NO": 9622.121853516383, "YES": 11.1491962638433} | 1 | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-caf92642cf6e | 10769.446097510661 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $625 on May 26, 2022? | 1653654445792 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.5976959380918165 | True | play | YES | public | 1653421882884 | Quantum Gambler |
Close date updated to 2022-05-27 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.951904899608584, "platformFee": 2.3253174832680985, "liquidityFee": 13.951904899608584} | 0 | 1653654445792 | 125.95190489960856 | Mirek | 1653654435861 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564208}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1653654434607 | 0.9057496223518968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4967762487505199 | s7bLeYSTQLQBqgWTZDPy | {"NO": 48.89613842033609, "YES": 234.54934660522534} | 0 | will-i-conclude-that-the-us-experie | 307.69332112615683 | Will I conclude that the US experienced food shortages (not counting the current baby formula shortage) in the next three months? | 1661399940000 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.947240452469459 | True | play | NO | public | 1653421915587 | Stephen Malina | This market is mostly the same as my previous market (https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/will-the-us-experience-food-shortag) except now it excludes baby formula. What follows is the description of the prior market.
Taking advantage of Manifold markets resolving by fiat to experiment with a market where I resolve ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.796053899802648, "platformFee": 0.5460486844001197, "liquidityFee": 3.276292106400718} | 0 | 1663758037661 | 103.27629210640073 | StephenMalina | 1662818183285 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576522}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1661373767243 | 1662818180929 | 0.1706733291153232 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2498558369849343 | je0EBtGwScntTJBwcQtM | {"NO": 163.2481272767773, "YES": 1944.2818179727028} | 0 | will-zvi-end-up-writing-3-or-more-p | 10907.500148111643 | Will Zvi end up writing 3 or more posts whose titles include the word Monkeypox in 2022? | 1671823684444 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9792647366862741 | True | play | NO | public | 1653422150250 | Zvi Mowshowitz | This will get resolved early to no if I (1) remember to do so and (2) it is clear that it's not going to happen, and early to yes if it happens. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 67.9989110942882, "platformFee": 3.0888415898118375, "liquidityFee": 18.533049538871015} | 0 | 1671823684444 | 298.533049538871 | ZviMowshowitz | 1671823717381 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 81 | 0 | 63 | [{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1659361621888}] | ["monkeypox"] | 0.2 | 1671823672387 | 1671823713551 | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4961718783951392 | jOABPHbcIWYyvC6dpf2A | {"NO": 70.20757617144452, "YES": 1428.6755429718255} | 0 | will-the-up-arrow-on-this-question | 5007.1503059374045 | Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow? | 1654055940000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9190694699000606 | True | play | NO | public | 1653422250984 | Predictor 🔥 | Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close?
May 24, 3:59pm: Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or no (down arrow).
May 25, 2:37pm: Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.97163744062681, "platformFee": 17.828606240104467, "liquidityFee": 106.97163744062681} | 0 | 1654613616159 | 206.97163744062686 | Predictor | 1654613724572 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654055939541 | 1654613719700 | 0.04616099781025793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43432434116222185 | l4Sno6z9hOynsvXWhWkN | {"NO": 148.10639446997925, "YES": 60.56347844483247} | 0 | will-i-have-sex-with-a-new-person-i | 1349.927160281246 | Will I have sex with a new person in the next month, for free? | 1656050340000 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.91148141561629 | True | play | NO | public | 1653424724765 | Aella | If I have sex with a person I haven't yet had sex with, without either party being paid, one month from now (6/24), this question will resolve yes.
May 24, 2:45pm: Since being sexually active I've averaged around four new sexual partners a year. Most were clustered in the first few years; in the last five years it's b... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.04406308892719, "platformFee": 2.8682244707204667, "liquidityFee": 17.2093468243228} | 0 | 1656053891028 | 135.2958046044896 | Aella | 1656169302592 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1656050292222 | 1656169300142 | 0.6524916306614247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7317169628025242 | fWwLBrBoHEqgt4V1ln6T | {"NO": 22.948048150995177, "YES": 186.2466843983566} | 0 | will-i-forget-i-posted-this-poll | 175.3751304241534 | Will I forget I posted this poll? | 1654034340000 | Yu7KWNm0xadjwzme6Ijmyk2FOV62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.895931415998481 | True | play | NO | public | 1653427000230 | N | This question resolves to yes if i forget it exists and don't come back to resolve it until long after the week expiry happens. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4966338937708614, "platformFee": 0.582772315628477, "liquidityFee": 3.4966338937708614} | 0 | 1654075931492 | 103.49663389377088 | nic | 1654010672089 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1654010670670 | 1653727841455 | 0.25152640987624775 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oQF9NCxAjqNG9w6lk6gw | 100usd-prize-pool-who-will-win-the | 288 | [100USD PRIZE POOL] Who will win the Men's World Surf League G-Land event? | 1654355355831 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.736187158845795 | True | play | 2493b3644cef | public | 1653432333221 | FRC | The World Surf League is holding the 2022 "Quiksilver/Roxy Pro G-Land" on May 28-June 6. This question will resolve to whoever the winner of the Men's event is.
I'm putting up a 100USD (real dollars) prize-pool for this market. Those 100USD will be distributed to the Top 5 bettors by profit, at the time of resolution... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.88, "platformFee": 3.72, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654355355831 | 560 | FRCassarino | 1654524414940 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "76aa424925b4", "prob": 0.06642576256775427, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7212393519970994, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.190986348708037, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oQF9NCxAjqNG9w6lk6gw", "createdTime": 1653432333306, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407871}] | ["sports-default"] | 1654320983571 | 1654524412898 | {"2493b3644cef": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | EY3SGQ8W7Wb562leqlNQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | who-will-win-the-el-gouna-internati | 0 | Who will win the "El Gouna International" Squash tournament? | 1653433117079 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653433082608 | FRC | The "El Gouna International" Squash tournament will be held May 27-June 3. The market will resolve to whoever wins it.
---
Used for A/B testing | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653433117079 | 100 | FRCassarino | 1653433082608 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399075}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A7yR4OM1KLP1yHWL5mUM | who-will-win-the-el-gouna-internati-b17511132cfa | 13 | Who will win the "El Gouna International" Squash tournament? | 1654383540000 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.98013067025711 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653433200406 | FRC | The "El Gouna International" Squash tournament will be held May 27-June 3. The market will resolve to whoever wins it.
---
Used for A/B testing | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655394201145 | 300 | FRCassarino | 1653436065081 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0fe7c36c96f", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.694262553659705, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.975541301108372, "textFts": "", "contractId": "A7yR4OM1KLP1yHWL5mUM", "createdTime": 1653433200881, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397608}] | ["sports-default"] | 1653436063768 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RtnStFgzcMuiuOcnIt6B | which-team-will-baker-mayfield-be-o | 724 | Which team will Baker Mayfield be on at the start of the 2022 NFL season? | 1661831940000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.673995669300263 | True | play | 1c9298e25c01 | public | 1653435476091 | David Glidden | Resolves to the team rostering Baker Mayfield as of the announcement of final 53-man rosters ahead of the start of the 2022 regular season, expected Tuesday, August 30th, 2022.
If not rostered by any team, this resolves “None”. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662172778093 | 340 | dglid | 1661831675064 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e2f4e70a8e6", "prob": 0.014728061080214912, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21608347425107702, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.455465827058847, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RtnStFgzcMuiuOcnIt6B", "createdTime": 1653435476396, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402408}] | ["sports-default"] | 1661831674891 | {"1c9298e25c01": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4953186434925932 | YuJtvHLRyJHUinTBEo2T | {"NO": 50.94868503049431, "YES": 214.65940148528267} | 0 | will-the-birthmark-on-my-back-be-re | 141.01617819371103 | Will the birthmark on my back be removed 2 weeks from now? | 1654066740000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9505537876367645 | True | play | NO | public | 1653437871089 | Rai | Today, I visited a generalist doctor who referred me to have a (most likely non-dangerous) birthmark on my back removed by another doctor. This market resolves YES if at market close that birthmark is no longer there.
May 31, 4:50pm: appointment booked for June 17, which points towards No. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9465219260378253, "platformFee": 0.3244203210063042, "liquidityFee": 1.9465219260378253} | 0 | 1654068612650 | 101.94652192603782 | agentydragon | 1654040992234 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654040990845 | 0.1889327845716981 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5211296153997761 | CL9NWqD9mQaRxw3ARRJw | {"NO": 283.0258448524477, "YES": 56.58473385863908} | 0 | will-female-height-be-correlated-mo | 1112.070204680088 | Will female height be correlated (more than 0.12) with any sexual fetish in the data from my kink survey? | 1654986961969 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7061328877673807 | True | play | NO | public | 1653440122698 | Aella | (a mirror of my other one asking about males here: https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-male-height-be-correlated-more, with a slightly higher correlation cutoff due to lower sample size)
I tested for ~300 sexual fetishes (though many of them were questions that only appeared conditional on previous questions). I also ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.33867113737796, "platformFee": 1.8897785228963269, "liquidityFee": 11.33867113737796} | 0 | 1654986961969 | 111.33867113737794 | Aella | 1654966886546 | 0 | 22 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524765}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1654966884714 | 1654688729034 | 0.8447977070331447 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1103664642368075 | qBHVCNAlNpwNdcdueKBk | {"NO": 569.0157826704844, "YES": 7214.796811530183} | 0 | will-stacey-abrams-win-the-2022-geo | 11144.068984994567 | Will Stacey Abrams win the 2022 Georgia (GA) governor's race? | 1667988781325 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4810172366738121 | True | play | NO | public | 1653443935343 | Matt P | This question resolves to YES if Stacey Abrams wins the Georgia governor's race. I'll call this if multiple major news organizations call the race for her and it appears as though there is no realistic path for Kemp to challenge the results. In the event of a contentious vote counting and/or litigation process by one o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.735350141934881, "platformFee": 0.1616123893140562, "liquidityFee": 0.969674335884337} | 0 | 1667988781325 | 777.426540051827 | MattP | 1667988773729 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529433202}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506249}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "polymarket"] | 0.25 | 1667985870685 | 1667988768032 | 0.009689416222373798 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YTKivoxebGLVZ74uNKyH | what-will-happen-to-kim-wexler-in-b | 223.1181080026908 | What will happen to Kim Wexler in Better Call Saul? | 1658905140000 | MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.78422360308351 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653444404455 | Richard | The selected answer will be the one that best describes her status at the end of the series. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7356316281264071, "platformFee": 0.18390790703160179, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660618828587 | 600 | Richard | 1660618881003 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c27c25d63e22", "prob": 0.13628248742969043, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.330760847776046, "userId": "MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.447062770319647, "textFts": "", "contractId": "YTKivoxebGLVZ74uNKyH", "createdTime": 1653444404522, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545252}] | ["culture-default"] | 1658902915477 | 1660618873395 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04535992610792427 | vzAZgie5nl4qPhszJtJz | {"NO": 916.3359771808084, "YES": 3196.0751496240814} | 0 | will-bitcoin-experience-mining-gaps | 2904.5558113224706 | Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" less than a month after the 2024 Halving? | 1716263940000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1653444884514 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The paper ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"On the Instability of Bitcoin Without the Block Reward\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CCS.pdf", "class": "break-a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01343983718951166} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3425184208571965, "platformFee": 1.029468664880856, "liquidityFee": 0.3756597071716087} | 0 | 1718914188535 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1716263940000 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 10 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658529538894}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1716252705109 | 1718723994127 | 0.01 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26813923644148185 | mB5qkeYHLL3TOddgfc4N | {"NO": 435.35113871899387, "YES": 2.6229292538805993} | 1 | will-an-updown-arrow-on-the-market | 444.0069650753557 | Will an up/down arrow on the market probability be the default way to bet from the homepage? | 1656095340000 | nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.781330192364856 | True | play | YES | public | 1653445071289 | Akhil Wable | Currently the homepage has up and down arrows on the market probability as the way to bet on a market, and defaults to a M$10 bet.
It's possible that this increases engagement by reducing friction. It also possible that this leads to confusion since interactions feel less like a betting, and more like a voting. Will M... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.39704117456194, "platformFee": 0.9324799935901551, "liquidityFee": 5.594879961540929} | 0 | 1656124649276 | 105.59487996154094 | akhil | 1656083806125 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1656083804855 | 1653533101944 | 0.9838217549268308 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9882218575426462 | GhBrzODkcaCli8mA9NGj | {"NO": 0.5309599658576571, "YES": 105.98644770302626} | 0 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-672e23380ca5 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1653445126570 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227558 | True | play | NO | public | 1653445116790 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247803, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746339, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247803} | 0 | 1653445126570 | 100.08131378184248 | SayJarva | 1653445124360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 1653445123074 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | L0BsHehnFVcC1rIrijpQ | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-2fff93379c1a | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1653445148216 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1653445140176 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1653445148216 | 100.08131378184248 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1653445146111 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653445144777 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | aEAdQ774EAZikqDpZfG9 | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-64e1cb5b77f0 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1653445179162 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1653445164822 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1653445179162 | 100.08131378184248 | unit_24601 | 1653445178708 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653445177396 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01177814245735379 | GRYJuZ1heKyTyDOScIIY | {"NO": 105.98644770302626, "YES": 0.5309599658576571} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve-yes-c0885a768692 | 6 | Will this question resolve "YES?" | 1653445277297 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.732616247227552 | True | play | YES | public | 1653445270271 | Peter Berggren | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08131378184247809, "platformFee": 0.013552296973746346, "liquidityFee": 0.08131378184247809} | 0 | 1653445277297 | 100.08131378184248 | PeterBerggren | 1653445275856 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 1653445274441 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49292880707465847 | ideFJItPvRk6OihJEsqo | {"NO": 12.800660651691885, "YES": 989.1643574450127} | 0 | will-i-stay-at-mexifold-around-june | 983.6459662585253 | Will I stay at Mexifold around June 23-26? | 1656043140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.604610077547849 | True | play | NO | public | 1653448646625 | David Glidden | See https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-stay-at-mexifo
Considerations:
* I lived in Mexico City for 3 years before moving back to the States and absolutely love it and miss it dearly so would love to come back. I also hosted many family members and would love to help plan activities if nothing else (s... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.741303480288953, "platformFee": 0.775106157361763, "liquidityFee": 4.650636944170579} | 0 | 1656064258067 | 104.65063694417059 | dglid | 1655526691652 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655526691501 | 1654734553644 | 0.012423668626465262 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20906122680089875 | tQUQfMcHUeHMVi6tHb5l | {"NO": 209.19678504510068, "YES": 535.3440291863949} | 0 | will-twitch-loosen-its-explicit-con | 466.5006223554315 | Will Twitch loosen its explicit content policies by the end of the year? | 1667102340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 2.0853665045320615 | True | play | NO | public | 1653448872937 | Enopoletus Harding | This question resolves to Yes if Twitch (or a company majority owned by it) notably loosens its policies toward explicit content by the end of the year. It will resolve to No if it does not.
Question inspired by this tweet:
https://twitter.com/malkavianmirror/status/1529185759416180741 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9005747667314639, "platformFee": 0.242676454588068, "liquidityFee": 1.4560587275284078} | 0 | 1677005766287 | 281.4560587275284 | EnopoletusHarding | 1677006445789 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 21 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455098}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133008}] | ["technology-default", "internet"] | 0.5 | 1666992871596 | 1677006441008 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5004221952869313 | 42qkSWkLC9lFRj25N5fA | {"NO": 165.91803278688525, "YES": 61.513770617910794} | 1 | will-there-be-a-pro-bowl-game-for-t | 66 | Will there be a Pro Bowl game for the 2022-23 NFL season? | 1662008340000 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8748828307367487 | True | play | YES | public | 1653449483653 | Mvem | Recently there have been reports (https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1529114639807676417?s=20&t=SdT1lmyIX5UddOpJi3gWsA) that the NFL is discussing eliminating the Pro Bowl game. This question resolved positively if a Pro Bowl game takes place next season, even if there are significant rule changes to the game. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.49180327868852447, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447} | 0 | 1675657298224 | 100.49180327868852 | Mvem | 1674947852063 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396011}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663531277138}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQw... | ["sports-default", "please-resolve", "nfl"] | 0.5 | 1662005615987 | 1674947849116 | False | 0.73 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49784490612224885 | wDW8AXnXX2IzWRM6DWfu | {"NO": 54.553644491067686, "YES": 215.58416813232765} | 0 | will-i-leave-my-current-job-by-the | 405 | Will I leave my current job by the time this question expires? | 1656053940000 | VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.850606338982155 | True | play | NO | public | 1653449717390 | Johnny | Context: I'm currently working as a software engineer at a big tech company, this is my first job in the industry, I've been working here for nearly a year. It pays well and I've saved up some money. I like some aspects of it and dislike others. I have no doubt that
I could pass another industry interview loop, but I ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.34335670778241, "platformFee": 0.6773830301635483, "liquidityFee": 4.06429818098129} | 0 | 1656057317784 | 104.06429818098127 | TheSkeward | 1656025288375 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656025287119 | 1655993390600 | 0.2005617180486775 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6460519017094442 | dNRjebun67r8DARIvTEQ | {"NO": 41.725278224126214, "YES": 1607.5126401032517} | 0 | will-my-twitter-poll-resolve-with-g | 7679.963718844063 | Will my Twitter poll resolve with greater preference for boobs or butts? | 1653590194292 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.063205778546387 | True | play | NO | public | 1653451326387 | Aella | I will tweet a poll asking "which better, boobs or butts?"
Will resolve "yes" if boobs and "no" if butts, based on which gains more votes by the time the twitter poll closes. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.7576482079881, "platformFee": 11.459608034664686, "liquidityFee": 68.7576482079881} | 0 | 1653590194292 | 418.757648207988 | Aella | 1654297880249 | 0 | 60 | 0 | [{"name": "Aella's Twitter Polls", "slug": "aellas-twitter-polls", "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "groupId": "tm5BTMEUugDBgksG76OP", "createdTime": 1669703495027}] | ["aellas-twitter-polls"] | 0.5 | 1653589613852 | 1654297877034 | 0.04523445962827919 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5687709396940347 | 3NRbyrpvuyWQqGRCykek | {"NO": 45.537803868119866, "YES": 712.2729661741938} | 0 | will-manifold-add-markers-on-the-co | 932.6962760094987 | Will Manifold add markers on the colored probabilty bar showing what probability my bet was made at? | 1656700140000 | nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3474666583856485 | True | play | NO | public | 1653451697887 | Akhil Wable | The homepage currently shows a bar representing the current market probability. One piece of info I've wanted easy access to is the probability at which I made a bet, so that I can see how much the market has shifted. The probability bar seems like a great candidate for this by adding markers at where my bet was made.
... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.635734412036257, "platformFee": 1.6912130649413433, "liquidityFee": 10.14727838964806} | 0 | 1656721700845 | 210.14727838964805 | akhil | 1656721699325 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656699535901 | 1656721691855 | 0.07776705160648648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5021197348500867 | AGGe4oem1HM0fJg19yzo | {"NO": 168.1449552606335, "YES": 64.58163298654992} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-market-honestly | 88 | Will I resolve this market honestly? | 1654142340000 | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.808381034908242 | True | play | YES | public | 1653456434955 | Connor Dolan | I will pick "YES" if I am honest.
I will pick "NO" if I am dishonest. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9985468308806977, "platformFee": 0.33309113848011623, "liquidityFee": 1.9985468308806977} | 0 | 1654239101692 | 101.99854683088068 | ConnorDolan | 1654017019762 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654017019632 | 1653520910905 | 0.7241967529606641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4945555037834394 | 62xc3CFa2UBxBSSgxCK1 | {"NO": 25.126495033359618, "YES": 475.8277413639663} | 0.04912979588415355 | will-my-url-rating-chrome-extension | 771.5070673244311 | Will my URL rating chrome extension reach 10k installs by 2023? | 1653488007276 | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.623547808472717 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1653463804409 | colorednoise | I've created a chrome extension called NeedleSearch that allows users to like and dislike any URL and to see others' ratings. At the time of creation, the extension is found here: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/needlesearch-rate-urls-se/fkdnhlgcphcilhhnfidjimbengcfoiha
This market resolves as positive if th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1653488007276 | 103.991147869616 | colorednoise | 1653487697713 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443781}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1653487696267 | 1653487232012 | 0.05 |
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