CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5075936731995323

jYeLDmJF3EsVlEBifkQg

{"NO": 163.08134006775654, "YES": 75.92067790141407}

1

will-my-friend-reach-a-daily-screen

256

Will my friend reach a daily screen time average of more than an hour on TikTok?

1654689540000

L9lz0GYpFAeHcfEFQRCeupFqUUB2

cpmm-1

0

2.6487270960365192

True

play

YES

public

1653464016454

Gexuma Twogaloo

This question resolves to YES if the Screen Time feature on his phone on iOS reports more than an hour of screen time on TikTok in its Daily Average feature. He has only recently begun using the app.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.321195994403742, "platformFee": 0.8868659990672902, "liquidityFee": 5.321195994403742}

0

1655016719874

105.32119599440374

GexumaTwogaloo

1654640997282

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwemgKmxS5OZ9uYUckFC3LKSWgaML3kv8jLog3u=s96-c

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0

1

0.5

1654640997029

1653521692356

0.6888904245732468

0.9868251637214918

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{"NO": 0.03030082045729976, "YES": 109.97771187046013}

0

will-this-question-resolve-yes-91f54ef8c8ee

10

Will this question resolve "YES"?

1653464684976

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

9.622852794333753

True

play

NO

public

1653464635031

Scott Lawrence

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.13372877723925908, "platformFee": 0.022288129539876512, "liquidityFee": 0.13372877723925908}

0

1653464684976

100.13372877723926

ScottLawrence

1653464659775

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

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1653464659630

0.99

0.3402459968134145

lQFrksZ8UEHhrVWq5niX

{"NO": 108.47224770693074, "YES": 366.6715026479225}

0

will-i-be-formally-diagnosed-with-a

256.6495437665261

Will I be formally diagnosed with ASD?

1667285940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.2856443875853496

True

play

NO

public

1653464930368

Rai

Resolves YES if by market close I am officially diagnosed with ASD from a psychiatrist, licensed psychologist, or similar "officially blessed medical person" who's allowed to diagnose it. Got a score of 18/42 on https://www.aspietests.org/raads/.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6373482589704316, "platformFee": 0.04524886877828055, "liquidityFee": 0.2714932126696833}

0

1667313442752

180.27149321266967

agentydragon

1667283722685

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

10

0

1

11

0.5

1667283722497

1667278828867

0.13236932898969578

0.46322061152804916

73QQcLZHS9q6ee6DDK6P

{"NO": 84.89851724895958, "YES": 174.97621878715807}

0

will-i-be-lower-my-ssri-dose

66.77387140970141

Will I be lower my SSRI dose?

1667285940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.5224254504756023

True

play

NO

public

1653465369536

Rai

Resolves YES if by market close a) I do not take any antidepressants, or b) still have the same primary SSRI, but have a lower daily dose than on 2022-05-25. Resolves NO if I still have the same primary SSRI, but a higher or same daily dose as on 2022-05-25. Resolves N/A otherwise - for example, if I no longer take t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14268727705112957, "platformFee": 0.023781212841854932, "liquidityFee": 0.14268727705112957}

0

1667313456069

120.14268727705112

agentydragon

1667261022001

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

3

0

1

4

0.5

1667261021811

1653617351135

0.2951342112076767

a6FVA3D06Zx4B9M6N2FG

who-will-be-the-next-president-of-c

2886.2446328292867

Who will be the next president of Czech Republic after Miloš Zeman?

1674935273093

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.635079224618497

True

play

774bb486d5ac

public

1653465901688

Rai

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Czech_presidential_election Market will be resolved when the winner of the election is clear. I'm not sure whether Wikipedia's description ("Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023") implies that the president-elect will be known in Januar...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674935273093

959.9999999999997

agentydragon

1675004290745

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

1

13

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2703fdef706f", "prob": 0.0016262313243601706, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004083874804868578, "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.5071669808969497, "textFts": "", "contractId": "a6FVA3D06Zx4B9M6N2FG", "createdTime": 1653465901931, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

13

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406869}, {"...

["politics-default", "central-europe", "stefans-group", "global-macro", "czechia"]

1674916108187

1675004281845

{"774bb486d5ac": 100}

True

0.21980945550545752

EidHKyFXGEOtvoiwTNmC

{"NO": 95.57133978040312, "YES": 301.06192154793547}

0

will-i-be-hospitalized-in-2022

230.42670832640056

Will I be hospitalized in 2022?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.625206698599528

True

play

NO

public

1653466505967

Rai

Obese, 28 year old, no other known major health problems. Hospitalized defined as staying in a hospital over at least one night. May 25, 9:24am: last hospitalization overnight was >6 years ago due to infection and injury

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.548324211395671, "platformFee": 0.40739081714628556, "liquidityFee": 2.444344902877713}

0

1672588730251

122.44434490287772

agentydragon

1672559760606

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

7

0

1

7

0.25

1672559760453

0.08

0.4987651211044733

X76ia6Xg3xQAx8SNQleG

{"NO": 28.136257305476306, "YES": 371.96838297740265}

0

will-google-release-a-version-of-fu

323.4781651931255

Will Google release a version of Fuchsia I can boot on my laptop with a GUI?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.5146104176418613

True

play

NO

public

1653467103915

Rai

Resolves to YES if a non-Googler can install and run Fuchsia on a generic computer, without a VM, with a reasonable GUI, by market close. "Fuchsia": https://fuchsia.dev/ "Generic computer": has to be installable on, say, my current Lenovo X1, or comparable "normal laptop". If Fuchsia can only be run on some new Fuchs...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2904975032539292, "platformFee": 0.164760869772846, "liquidityFee": 0.988565218637076}

0

1672588834995

100.98856521863706

agentydragon

1672432988415

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449799}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1672432988238

0.07

0.016696507556885797

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{"NO": 145, "YES": 9.102496534296735e-14}

1

will-resolve-affirmative

45

will resolve affirmative

1653477749734

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

9.58552517548136

True

play

YES

public

1653477643478

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.374367617605457e-14, "platformFee": 8.957279362675762e-15, "liquidityFee": 5.374367617605457e-14}

0

1653477749734

100.00000000000006

Electricitypipe

1653477740186

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.01

1653477738897

0.01

GgJ8PUZlVH2qdr7fdVpI

what-is-the-best-tool-to-get-notifi

117

What is the best tool to get notified about free PC games?

1656626340000

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.890826398246325

True

play

MKT

public

1653481959955

Milli

I will resolve MULTI when there is no tool covering everything. Jun 5, 7:49pm: The resolution criteria are subjective. Ease of use. completeness and customizability are important. Tools that notify about "major" games or major platforms (steam, Epic Games, GOG, Origin) rank higher. Notifications about DLCs, especially...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.119999999999999, "platformFee": 1.0299999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656660613416

360

Milli

1655141167656

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7db321cf1b84", "prob": 0.4056959714390036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.75406532388833, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.376130292964014, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GgJ8PUZlVH2qdr7fdVpI", "createdTime": 1653481960097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445762}]

["technology-default"]

1655141167500

1654452664225

{"0f76cfbef69a": 70, "c7e7c606e9f2": 30}

True

0.3770343525577216

9Po20mHAix0yXx96Q1p3

{"NO": 110.06159259867663, "YES": 445.7881460946733}

0

will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak-8cf8a8381871

1053.678551289926

Will the current monkeypox outbreak lead to >5 infections in wild animals?

1699860326000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

2.03920501273959

True

play

NO

public

1653483707770

Tim P

Regarding the possibility of monkeypox gaining a reservoir outside of Africa. Will >5 wild animals become infected outside of Africa, before 2024 or the end of the current monkeypox outbreak (which ever happens sooner)? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #World #Economics #Ecology #ID #infectiousdi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.89844326771133, "platformFee": 0.3761690752046728, "liquidityFee": 2.257014451228037}

0

1699860326000

202.25701445122803

TimP

1699860315006

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

18

0

15

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529413955}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523820}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTim...

["science-default", "economics-default", "world-default", "monkeypox", "medicine"]

0.5

1699847381121

1699860314157

0.13

0.5024583030458114

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{"NO": 500.4976178248861, "YES": 28.601254759246956}

1

will-the-us-congress-pass-gun-legis

872.888790299282

Will the US Congress pass gun legislation by 2023-05-25?

1656173650234

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

3.383916185090004

True

play

YES

public

1653483951548

Martin Randall

Resolves yes if Congress passes something related to civilian ownership and use of guns. This could be gun safety, gun control, or new laws to make it easier to get guns. The law has to pass the House and Senate. The market still resolves Yes if the law is vetoed by the President. The market still resolves Yes if the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.617820588556498, "platformFee": 1.568104472321816, "liquidityFee": 9.408626833930894}

0

1656173650234

109.40862683393084

MartinRandall

1656174025373

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

20

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510441}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560873516}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politic...

["politics-default", "us-legislation", "us-politics"]

0.5

1656173639413

1656174018172

False

0.8657281754257354

0.6815064824779464

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{"NO": 0.3953898953257635, "YES": 1386.7806548064211}

0

will-boris-johnson-be-prime-ministe

2011.7200990629706

Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister in 2023?

1664130236255

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

6.016031712421287

True

play

NO

public

1653485211178

Nathan Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.866354949961796, "platformFee": 1.197771060284672, "liquidityFee": 7.186626361708033}

0

1664130236255

112.75475761800692

NathanpmYoung

1664126322224

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

23

0

24

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481468}]

["politics-default"]

0.75

1664126321836

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0.0006097085868821637

0.7466932596329383

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{"NO": 14190.868528297746, "YES": 148.38530261717005}

1

if-donald-trump-runs-for-president

22039.28330108406

If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate?

1692878388513

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0.06998825765216722

1.6854847425599742

True

play

YES

public

1653487457487

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will be void if Trump is not running as of the first televised presidential debate. If Trump runs but refuses to debate then market will still be live (but he would then not count towards the 7 candidates).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "har...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.75666391054771, "platformFee": 0.640291352681176, "liquidityFee": 3.8417481160870555}

0

1692878388513

683.841748116087

ZviMowshowitz

1692878376062

1.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

1

48

0

1

24

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581059}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486663}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId"...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-gop-primaries", "donald-trump"]

0.12963966326387225

0.5

1692878375918

1692740364654

False

1

8zN4WZcxqfLJTLWZP9GN

what-will-we-name-our-puppy

7106

What will we name our puppy?

1654030184142

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.622036652024011

True

play

1370fab5d017

public

1653493355785

Joel Becker

By popular demand https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker/will-we-get-a-male-puppy#zzpOLZrD3PBuh0Oaibke , the puppy naming market! The puppy is male; he gets picked up on Jun 7.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 23.75999999999999, "platformFee": 5.939999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654030184142

680

JoelBecker

1654269766633

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "07d63282784f", "prob": 0.00019268707834286644, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00016049887161120104, "userId": "jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.8327903818595301, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8zN4WZcxqfLJTLWZP9GN", "createdTime": 1653493355871, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...

[{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904796}]

["naming-suggestions"]

1654030161006

1654269765210

{"1370fab5d017": 100}

True

0.5019762796852125

Ek9yAQ5LfbqbNcx1YfYR

{"NO": 75.1262312767139, "YES": 139.2844634391652}

1

will-i-find-a-new-job-by-the-end-of

236.59442881994067

Will I find a new job by the end of August 2022?

1662073140000

x6MyE80H4cbCl49qU1mlSLjEokx1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725746116702936

True

play

YES

public

1653493539524

Duke Gartzea

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am looking to find a new job to work remotely and if possible related to EA philosophy. My goal is to find a new one this summer. Jul 7, 10:05pm: I will be volunteering for [EA org] helping them with [things related to my current job and of which...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.19962169790151, "platformFee": 0.2015782367727098, "liquidityFee": 1.2094694206362588}

0

1664215021604

101.20946942063627

dukeGartzea

1662066320516

0

https://firebasestorage.…26d-f65909a21bb1

16

0

1

17

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1661868461140}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1662066319095

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{"NO": 222.6234170275587, "YES": 80.13455514714127}

1

will-i-get-back-together-with-titan

330

Will I get back together with Titania within 2 months

1653841571910

5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32

cpmm-1

0

3.275525221145992

True

play

YES

public

1653496163376

Sapphire Star

We were together for 8 years. Broke up about a year ago. Been hanging out a lot and cuddling while we play storybook brawl. Self reported resolution. May 25, 12:45pm: I'm currently dating Agrippa. Titania has a boyfriend. We do not expect to break up with our respective partners if we date.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.124930978434174, "platformFee": 0.6874884964056958, "liquidityFee": 4.124930978434174}

0

1653841571910

104.12493097843418

SapphireStar

1653841596160

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c

6

0

0.7

1653708799932

1653841592706

0.8693217248850792

0.3370767494344469

t5cAgPDaCLC4F4O51AYa

{"NO": 195.51098484521296, "YES": 26.42584679520202}

1

will-i-be-able-to-take-paxlovid-in

310.7728104422716

Will I be able to take Paxlovid in 2022?

1664889791674

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

3.5867342433299587

True

play

YES

public

1653497260241

^,^ Épi

I've had a typical long covid experience since September 2020, with a very clear suspected path for infection (someone coughing without a mask while we were both inside for an hour or so, I had an ill-fitted mask): Mild infection at first, suspected it was nothing, and then one month later it flared up as I was trainin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.860645975407042, "platformFee": 0.5436846028407518, "liquidityFee": 3.2621076170445105}

0

1664889791674

256.0835030634949

epiphanie_gedeon

1664889825873

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

6

0

7

[{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1658529540040}]

["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions"]

0.25

1664858849777

1664889815333

0.79

0.47398579964012094

Zin8XrF40IxX0LG8qbvg

{"NO": 12977.29807257, "YES": 122.0920152226833}

0.9896670522756655

will-donald-trump-be-the-republican-1120636b600a

303164.5180063265

Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?

1725173940000

Pk1NEasHvMMwtHz5ynZ5kWwMN4U2

cpmm-1

0.08988644514492897

5.253299490110793

False

basic

public

1653497999061

Richard Shu

Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.01556931184303556, "month": 0.01802194352818065}

0

{"creatorFee": 85.5349230749192, "platformFee": 22.213083526751614, "liquidityFee": 32.991863280031346}

0

1573.7135075855258

RichardShu

1720062641080

3.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz-uY5Kn9_63RUD1KY6h0F0_200Jokgdf1TKvlW=s96-c

2

272

3

79

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493641}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581574}, {"name": "2024 GOP Primaries", "slug": "2024-gop-primar...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "2024-gop-primaries", "donald-trump", "magaland"]

0.2331167097153425

0.5

1720062637931

1698877161827

False

0.225404162885424

XY2yGw3oqNMMZbzeZDzs

{"NO": 51.578459988579084, "YES": 1086.9298569494279}

0

will-my-flight-from-sfo-to-jfk-arri

1347.9851887593802

Will my flight from SFO to JFK arrive on time?

1653775096606

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.896141319882142

True

play

NO

public

1653498327822

Jack

Resolves YES if my flight on Saturday from SFO to JFK arrives at the gate less than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival time, NO if it arrives late or is cancelled. (15 minutes is the typical threshold for considering a flight delayed in flight statistics.)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.6193370950313404, "platformFee": 0.4365561825052233, "liquidityFee": 2.6193370950313404}

0

1653775096606

102.61933709503133

jack

1653775074291

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

6

0

0.2

1653774856170

1653775072619

0.9321510489358098

0.2502859549893598

TU3PVZfbqq0gGRKVvLBa

{"NO": 109.9327972043637, "YES": 77.75684542958821}

0

will-i-test-positive-for-covid-next

10

Will I test positive for Covid next week after 2 close positive contacts this week?

1654129239451

Y005WvA8t7WG4cZBds7rHzyiOdT2

cpmm-1

0

3.687576911703929

True

play

NO

public

1653498840955

Nika

Last night (Tuesday) I had indoor dinner sitting next to a coworker whose Monday PCR test turned out to be positive (she found out after the dinner, and also started developing symptoms at that point.) On Sunday I spent half the day talking indoors unmasked with a different friend who just texted me to say she's positi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.40321677381779064, "platformFee": 0.06720279563629845, "liquidityFee": 0.40321677381779064}

0

1654129239451

100.40321677381779

Nika_from_Poland

1653600726344

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJytxK2m8ZrZgLBL3kjJjV5gFblgiShDZYKj6Glt=s96-c

1

0

0.25

1653502640868

1653600722599

0.32064589385517167

0.11843447301882756

cAr2W1tKB7CT32b1ouO2

{"NO": 977.127449216401, "YES": 1136.3948153105455}

0.10355458940059978

will-meat-be-banned-in-the-uk-by-20

633.5533759651232

Will meat be banned in the UK by 2030?

1893542340000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

10.038832006293696

False

basic

public

1653499104007

John Roxton

This question will resolve 'YES' if the UK passes legislation that prohibits the sale of all animal meat to the general public before the start of 2030. In the event of the UK being reduced due to secession by one or more of its constituent countries before 2030, 'UK' will be redefined as whatever collective territory...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.18605288901848, "platformFee": 0.3540256546783199, "liquidityFee": 2.1241539280699193}

0

1000

JohnRoxton

1699963959904

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

20

0

18

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495698}, {"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}]

["politics-default", "animal-consumption-trends"]

0.25

1699963959783

1658018053218

0.6000339295579671

aVNjKkaLpeOGs6SBnKOg

{"NO": 106.15586147585337, "YES": 97.16132616142644}

1

will-i-get-to-bed-by-1200am-last-ni

13

Will I get to bed by 12:00am last night?

1653570723865

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.875418222810337

True

play

YES

public

1653499656330

Charlie

Got it last night. Missed it the two nights before. I believe. I will not bet NO on this market. May 25, 1:27pm: TONIGHT not last night, since I already know about last night on account of it already having happened.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.33178617864992754, "platformFee": 0.05529769644165459, "liquidityFee": 0.33178617864992754}

0

1653570723865

100.33178617864992

Charlie

1653526569566

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

3

0

0.6

1653526568321

0.6210817269895843

0.7498367649740526

iRGFYEvHH2yyw2VEiLMR

{"NO": 5.185005003374904, "YES": 268.4300243758915}

0

will-manifold-change-numeric-market

880.2751924951624

Will Manifold change Numeric markets to use binary CPMM?

1656140340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

5.27995590586331

True

play

NO

public

1653502441758

Austin

Currently they're implemented using 100 DPMM buckets, which is hard to interpret and doesn't give fixed payouts. Could do 100 CPMM buckets, but that's just inferior to binary CPMM + range liquidity provisioning via uniswap v3. I think.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.975596717209315, "platformFee": 2.266657292350169, "liquidityFee": 13.599943754101012}

0

1656293235443

100.00409358361867

Austin

1656123446931

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

7

0

1

0.8

1656123445574

1655839065653

0.054729018632496504

0.4980547341683786

xfUdCPQKwDjYMWoYbJ4d

{"NO": 45.92401502776846, "YES": 261.5626358699735}

0

will-i-stay-at-mexifold-around-june-dfb005d67ed1

270

Will I stay at Mexifold around June 20-23?

1655535540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

2.966240101092252

True

play

NO

public

1653504565838

Daniel Reeves

See https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-stay-at-mexifo This sounds pretty awesome. Suppressing the probability somewhat, I'm already going to a different (prediction-markets-related!) thing in Germany that starts July 3. But I think I'd go to Mexifold iff Bethany Soule is game to join me. She's pretty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.788413039553456, "platformFee": 0.7695191085437458, "liquidityFee": 4.617114651262475}

0

1656095476406

104.61711465126248

dreev

1655482994105

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

11

0

1

0.5

1655482992818

1653511963466

0.14836700626171925

0.1668501970965671

a2Zhm8erWY0OrJI9ZNZk

{"NO": 287.1134758088005, "YES": 3638.325157039651}

0

if-joe-biden-runs-for-president-in

4540.177369162037

If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, will 5 or more Democrats appear on a primary presidential debate stage?

1706849940000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

1.8236140312068625

True

play

NO

public

1653505918760

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same rules as the Trump conditional debate stage market (but 5 candidates vs. 7).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.215094783999539, "platformFee": 0.6600664278247441, "liquidityFee": 3.960398566948464}

0

1706898501631

443.9603985669484

ZviMowshowitz

1706898523279

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

29

0

2

16

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494071}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581644}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-bide...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

1706237850613

1706898521625

0.02

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

0.4908093384211143

bFIOQkhp3Q2RFPbqsRqR

{"NO": 2744.642895665125, "YES": 3.7125450766311587}

1

will-zvi-mowshowitzs-covid-posts-co

2988.372033936996

Will Zvi Mowshowitz's Covid posts continue to be weekly through September 1, 2022?

1662091140000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

5.224106554495831

True

play

YES

public

1653510147083

Zvi Mowshowitz

This resolves to Yes unless either (1) Zvi net misses 3 or more Covid posts by then (there are 3+ more weeks than there are Covid posts) and/or (2) Zvi misses at least 1 post and announces a policy in which such posts are no longer weekly.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.727341334515577, "platformFee": 0.6076477363843035, "liquidityFee": 3.6458864183058206}

0

1662116796244

103.64588641830582

ZviMowshowitz

1662070153853

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

18

0

1

18

0.5

1662070152320

0.9985986569002613

0.5097201718099361

iskjVvYNg17ZiosMhkJm

{"NO": 439.8330058939097, "YES": 24.843892477858873}

1

will-there-be-a-controversy-today

340

Will there be a controversy today?

1653510378511

yEmwNGc2WuYVK19kdDNfP82max73

cpmm-1

0

3.694835846909457

True

play

YES

public

1653510333583

Ethan Krumble

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.001964636542241, "platformFee": 0.16699410609037352, "liquidityFee": 1.001964636542241}

0

1653510378511

101.00196463654224

ethank

1653510352519

0

https://firebasestorage.…e9b-e1138c257942

1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501313}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1653510351135

0.5

0.06934336256390645

pgIdZx8UgxszmK2NdAjK

{"NO": 265.99999989971667, "YES": 2.0491640041520044e-06}

1

will-there-be-a-controversy-today-9341890e9326

166

Will there be a controversy today?

1653510487744

t2opMBFkyde8fuFsv78GY1SEdrz2

cpmm-1

0

8.230870357693851

True

play

YES

public

1653510470384

Tatiana Surver

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.017002475733335e-07, "platformFee": 1.002833745955556e-07, "liquidityFee": 6.017002475733335e-07}

0

1653510487744

100.00000060170025

TatianaSurver

1653510479808

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ba-372911b16997

1

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505702}]

["politics-default"]

0.05

1653510478131

0.05

0.5

WpQRdwp97gkfoRCAwi54

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-there-be-a-controversy-today-f2fc66ed5ce1

0

Will there be a controversy today?

1653510552597

90n0AjSE7OhLv9AjfEwPD9Bu2DT2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

YES

public

1653510543398

Wendel

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653510552597

100

SBF

1653510543398

0

https://firebasestorage.…d4e-4e99f9c4a02f

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490845}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

0.5170875386963315

kDM86JRpZY5kvdvck2sD

{"NO": 869.4824120992165, "YES": 15.00539141248236}

1

will-alphabet-close-the-week-above

837.8973007317772

Will Alphabet close the week above $2100?

1653678000000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.4277976787738815

True

play

YES

public

1653510924543

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if Alphabet trades above $2100 at market close on 5/27/2022. May 25, 9:32pm: Closed today $2,116.10.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.721723014037807, "platformFee": 0.6202871690063012, "liquidityFee": 3.721723014037807}

0

1653681762173

103.72172301403779

BTE

1653659386134

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

6

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574677}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1653659381683

0.9841383981458349

0.6956898905734337

ElgK9PVUw2akKprDXwA5

{"NO": 7.306009070899126, "YES": 314.0887014427559}

0

will-manifold-implement-uniswap-v3

1161.7875002726093

Will Manifold implement Uniswap v3 for liquidity injection?

1658732340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

4.770634762939257

True

play

NO

public

1653510940237

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My latest obsession is using the Uniswap v3 liquidity injection mechanism to provide \"limit orders\" but better: https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3 Some Discord convo: @SG: My view is that USv3 is a much worse and far more complicated mechanism t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.646251665039873, "platformFee": 2.9784847699340404, "liquidityFee": 17.870908619604247}

0

1664938872120

100.0001116020494

Austin

1664940193319

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1664934246625}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.75

1658731392548

1664940187960

0.05049235987389693

0.5228633995839223

fjyokLKma9HuIXPggDLp

{"NO": 509.3919981712271, "YES": 25.309953150313998}

1

will-apple-close-the-week-above-140

745

Will Apple close the week above $140?

1653678000000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.6952955432833203

True

play

YES

public

1653511048638

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if AAPL trades above $140 at market close on 5/27/22. May 25, 9:30pm: Closed today $140.52.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.517052785822626, "platformFee": 0.5861754643037711, "liquidityFee": 3.517052785822626}

0

1653681740587

103.51705278582263

BTE

1653670575105

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

4

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573042}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1653670573761

0.9566253868621232

VTY2rqrdgjCqKRjEX7YG

which-country-will-win-the-2022-fif

538884.3549518501

Which country will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1671386954583

Hn0maAvapcPK2o995ikbY8SmBip2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615450695551068

True

basic

e4a963487943

public

1653511090128

Tianna Wheeler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup 2022 FIFA World Cup in QATAR / 21 November to 18 December 2022 Which team/country will be the winner of the final? Winning answer will be country name only (no other bs answers).", "type": "text"}, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7096269314613755, "platformFee": 0.42740673286534386, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671386954583

13459.999999999995

TiannaWheeler

1689186373484

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzH3PQrrL3tkhmxAR3LefWiyDYVGt3Ivyv_533L=s96-c

4

317

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b0cb6e8c5ed2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00481622007183392, "userId": "Hn0maAvapcPK2o995ikbY8SmBip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.4032938158451262, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VTY2rqrdgjCqKRjEX7YG", "createdTime": 1653511090216, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}...

318

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583557}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403504}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", ...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "soccer", "2022-world-cup-final", "india"]

1671386914948

1689186368660

False

{"e4a963487943": 100}

True

aDJwGeW4rmpJ1Nu6Gnqb

who-will-be-the-gop-nominee-for-pre

6207.601860350262

Who will be the GOP nominee for president in 2024?

1717300740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

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1653511142235

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves once a candidate has secured enough nominating electors in the party primaries.

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1716774091969

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who-will-be-the-next-president-of-t-6118867d677c

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Who will be the next president of the USA after Biden?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.631353032656074

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CANCEL

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1653512412284

Duncn

Who will be the next person to be president of the USA? This includes acting president including temporary hand-offs of power, but does not include Biden winning reelection (because Biden is the same person as Biden). In case of a coup or successful invasion I will use my judgement.

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10173.825827818653

Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in New Hampshire?

1667974716762

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0.7052473412793026

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1653513820303

N.C. Young

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Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?

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1.2085315660867177

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CANCEL

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1653515132267

Simon Bazelon

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Ian Philips

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Will the Twitter 2FC fine appear in Hacker News?

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1653516326589

Undox

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100

I will resolve this question YES.... or will I?

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1653520304753

Matt P

Yes, I will. I will resolve it YES.

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will-the-cell-paper-induction-of-pl

2902.815394916529

Will the Cell paper "Induction of pluripotent stem cells from mouse embryonic and adult fibroblast cultures by defined factors" surpass 30,000 citations by 2023?

1672549140000

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1653522741702

Sedibus Research

Citation count confirmed here: https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=k6hepIAAAAAJ&citation_for_view=k6hepIAAAAAJ:hFOr9nPyWt4C Paper identification: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2006.07.024 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867406009767

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SedibusResearch

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are-high-powered-driven-successful

1139.0501904123523

Are high powered, driven, successful men more likely to be submissive?

1653778064497

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

2.2435374842789755

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public

1653527550605

Aella

If agreement with the statement "I am high powered, driven, successful" correlates more than 0.08 with sexual submission ("Which describes you best?" with options from "totally submissive" to "totally dominant") among cis men in my survey data (n=13k or something), I will resolve this question 'yes.' (not sure if wor...

BINARY

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Aella

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0.3839348957105438

will-chinas-nominal-gdp-exceed-the

773.796512041861

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

2209013940000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

9.708159502844556

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basic

public

1653530061903

Scott Lawrence

Resolves to YES if China's nominal GDP exceeds that of the U.S. before 2040. If there is any ambiguity about which country should be called "China", or which should be called "the U.S.", this question will resolve N/A.

BINARY

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ScottLawrence

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will-i-learn-of-any-new-sexual-assa

3589.3369716303714

Will I learn of any new sexual assaults in Genesis House this year?

1672559940000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

4.306290039702802

True

play

NO

public

1653531439982

Sinclair Chen

I am not claiming this is likely or unlikely. I am not claiming anything has or hasn't happened. I know nothing but rumors several degrees removed, but I have friends who are planning on living there and as an outsider I can't really tell whether to warn or encourage them. My hope with this market is that the price sig...

BINARY

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Sinclair

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["sex-and-love", "scandal-markets"]

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1671406668286

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0.01

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what-character-should-i-play-in-my

110

What character should I play in my next Pathfinder game?

1654142340000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.828237724912245

True

play

0bbbe2d52df4

public

1653534617562

Martin Randall

I will choose based on positive comments and high probability Restrictions: non-Evil, level 9. Setting: Homegrown. Dragons. Ogres. Birds. Existing characters: Svirfneblin Wizard, Kobold Investigator, Kasatha Brawler, Minotaur Paladin, Human Bard. My gaming style: lazy enough to try to outsource character creation to a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1654306077379

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MartinRandall

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will-manifolds-fixedpayout-markets

215.26241396184918

Will Manifold's fixed-payout markets still be close-able in a month?

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cpmm-1

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play

YES

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1653534680486

Austin

So way back in ye olden days, all our markets were Dynamic Parimutuel, meaning that the payouts could change after you placed a bet. We also instituted the ability to close a market, so that the payouts would be locked After some reflection, it turned out DPM is a bad model for options markets: https://kevin.zielnicki....

BINARY

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will-a-noncrappy-video-equivalent-o

125419.32840370054

Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?

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cpmm-1

0

0.4646162249997774

True

play

NO

public

1653537021365

Victor Levoso

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on this tweet https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1528991584309624832 Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates \"object permanency\" in the sense t...

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VictorLevoso

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91

Will Seth Green get his Bored Ape back?

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cpmm-1

0

2.8769623070202

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1653537524863

phil

This question resolves as 'yes' is Seth Green gets his Bored Ape back. See: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/sarahemerson/seth-green-bored-ape-owner

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will resolve positive

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8.125090873627006

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YES

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1653547404253

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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Will I stay at Mexifold around June 20-29?

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3.9581350958566985

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YES

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1653549806233

SneakySly

See https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-stay-at-mexifo I have never been to Mexico before, but love traveling and meeting new people. This sounds fun, and I would like to make it work. Close date updated to 2022-06-20 11:59 pm

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0

1

0.5

1655498635910

1655241516409

0.9750396281615893

djxwsGDlCJ08M48rQDfO

who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the

141429.06884706562

Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

1673069846686

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615879364965723

True

basic

c54fdf5e3903

public

1653554097977

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when the majority party elects their leader following the certification of the 2022 election.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9448915012622237, "platformFee": 0.4862228753155559, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673069846686

4959.999999999998

BTE

1673111878680

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

0

117

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2ae331a6cec9", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00481622007183392, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.4032938158451262, "textFts": "", "contractId": "djxwsGDlCJ08M48rQDfO", "createdTime": 1653554098315, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}...

1

116

[{"name": "Speaker of the House election", "slug": "speaker-of-the-house-election", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "0mpTdoHFiEzLBSKBYdXr", "createdTime": 1672884857122}, {"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg"...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "118th-congress", "speaker-of-the-house-election", "nathans-dashboard"]

1673069791398

1673111871976

{"c54fdf5e3903": 100}

True

0.4638518328088225

HtnB9NY8NOxeZwtuwKsM

{"NO": 54.85424697600551, "YES": 456.5090073733033}

0

will-bitcoin-be-at-least-30000-at-1-e49990b9298c

5532.606270077

Will bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59 on Wed Jun 1

1654153140000

kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1

cpmm-1

0

2.6068031964662453

True

play

NO

public

1653554737076

Alex Rockwell

As measured my coinmarketcap average price.

BINARY

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0

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0

1654153190313

124.8420434590459

AlexRockwell

1654153220910

0

https://firebasestorage.…df9-4e148250b2c7

20

0

0.5

1654152827009

1654153216666

0.22999297835096552

0.1657990258625673

5JW92qumaLBaIgo3cUII

{"NO": 144.57606843999093, "YES": 1143.5508086928512}

0

will-a-new-mersenne-prime-be-discov

3005.867948478293

Will a new Mersenne prime be discovered in 2022?

1672531140000

HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2

cpmm-1

0

3.2713249390389745

True

play

NO

public

1653562879289

Theodore Ehrenborg

I will resolve this based on https://www.mersenne.org/primes/

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1672867641590

349.1065477538558

TheodoreEhrenborg

1672059610049

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c

33

0

1

33

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522554}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1663561470484}]

["science-default", "mathematics"]

0.3

1672059609893

1663132792593

0.02

0.8109284156932761

pB2s3PRsM1NtvpABSpbv

{"NO": 840.4442685780282, "YES": 263.00957983451644}

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will-manifold-make-an-api-for-tradi

491

Will Manifold make an API for trading?

1654705845998

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

1.8429548883751221

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YES

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1653570712865

Bolton Bailey

This resolves YES is there is a public, officially documented API for making trades on or before the close date.

BINARY

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1654705845998

353.3343885318322

BoltonBailey

1654705833531

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1654705821464

1654705830103

0.9187544631686682

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Ow3mcveyHP8T3ji1Ipq0

{"NO": 259.21480222886976, "YES": 2712.389505040734}

0

will-tether-usdt-ever-trade-under-0

8613.340567099698

Will Tether (USDT) ever trade under 0.7 USD in 2022?

1672505644506

QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2

cpmm-1

0

1.091568885375589

True

play

NO

public

1653571362865

crystal ball

Question resolves to YES if at least one candle's lowest price on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) goes under 0.7 USD.

BINARY

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0

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1672505644506

556.6355027718048

duck

1672503473904

0

https://firebasestorage.…23f-d21632687c4b

0

33

0

33

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441670}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448990105}]

["crypto-prices", "stablecoins"]

0.4

1672503473750

1653575466996

0.04

0.5010600945203096

ap8kGoXA4LJxuvfUSYq9

{"NO": 140.84255255295926, "YES": 73.81040525226204}

0.6

poll-numeric-markets-how-often-woul

41

[POLL] Numeric markets: how often would you prefer to bet "up or down", vs "on a value"?

1654239540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.787301618423743

True

play

MKT

public

1653574521835

Austin

Trying to assess what our users think about numeric markets. Respond with a % representing how often you'd rather bet "higher or lower than current expected value", rather than "a normal distribution around X". Eg "80%" means "8 out of 10 times, I'd rather bet on 'higher than 17' rather than 'normal distribution aroun...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0.9446846822448713, "platformFee": 0.1574474470408119, "liquidityFee": 0.9446846822448713}

0

1654903036123

100.94468468224487

Austin

1654236138570

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

4

0

1

0.5

1654236135098

1654216899169

0.6

0.5046218446210466

nTKxjwnReJj63KrlI0iv

{"NO": 210.60745224534529, "YES": 52.782811405689074}

0.82

poll-yesno-markets-how-often-would

124.9952527650618

[POLL] Yes/No markets: how often would you prefer to bet "up or down", vs "on a value"?

1654239540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.9154465166446

True

play

MKT

public

1653574816433

Austin

Complement to https://manifold.markets/Austin/poll-numeric-markets-how-often-woul Today, all betting on Yes/No markets is "up or down"; all betting in Numeric markets is "on a value". We may want to support both mechanisms, but I'm curious to see what our default should be. To participate, comment with a % representi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3837699375577905, "platformFee": 0.397294989592965, "liquidityFee": 2.3837699375577905}

0

1654903141904

102.38376993755779

Austin

1654903137876

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

0

1

0.5

1654224858884

1654903134227

0.82

0.49810281527674466

Ck5O9yTcRzxBVh7YOqq3

{"NO": 90.46251392024152, "YES": 124.82178199257007}

0.3

how-many-blog-posts-will-lsusr-writ

141.32952288602536

How many blog posts will lsusr write in 30 days? [% * 20]

1656226740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.667104744504477

True

play

MKT

public

1653575323336

Austin

lsusr just came out with a huge list of blog post ideas: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts Bet on how many new posts he'll write! I'll resolve this market to the number of blog posts listed on https://www.lsusr.com/, that have been added between this mar...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.214872265998107, "platformFee": 0.516444703178554, "liquidityFee": 3.098668219071323}

0

1656718810696

103.09866821907131

Austin

1656718848082

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

5

0

1

0.5

1656226633758

1656718843751

0.3

0.5056607183990653

KbHvv2igF0DUx2fJNBn0

{"NO": 757.989755825157, "YES": 152.67806790745226}

1

poll-should-manifold-keep-daily-fre

1049.722738871269

Poll: Should Manifold keep daily free questions?

1654232340000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.2641770818247982

True

play

YES

public

1653577006528

SG

Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether Manifold should keep daily free questions. Right now, the Manifold platform provides M$100 to subsidize one market every 24 hours for users. On the one hand, this encourages the creation of more questions. On the other hand, it creates the opportunity for...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.586036761899802, "platformFee": 3.0976727936499664, "liquidityFee": 18.586036761899802}

0

1654275436894

318.58603676189995

SG

1654232239118

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

26

0

1

0.5

1654232237666

1654206320292

0.8354810820280018

0.062481254862026214

2ryEsvTJN3GFKJ1GLxDP

{"NO": 104.14033370870655, "YES": 39.32931795246877}

0

will-misha-yagudin-spend-more-time

167.21399316652568

Will Misha Yagudin spend more time in Nassau than Prague during Q3+Q4 2022?

1672549140000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

8.377073656059348

True

play

NO

public

1653579547764

Joel Becker

Replicating a bet between myself and Nuño Sempere. Resolves to Nassau if Misha spends a greater number of days in Nassau than Prague in Q3+Q4 2022, 50% if equal, Prague if lesser.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3455587845082353, "platformFee": 0.07372931233436944, "liquidityFee": 0.44237587400621653}

0

1672550351553

100.4423758740062

JoelBecker

1672084611780

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

6

0

1

5

0.05

1672084611669

0.15

0.1

P68Vo8Na0d9qlnQgj4X0

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1

i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-fd084094d2ca

0

I will resolve this question YES

1653581186674

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

7.701635339554951

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653581145629

Matt P

Don't hate the player, hate the game. Also, I'm putting all of this back into the markets or charity so can you really be mad? No... no, you can't.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653581186674

100

MattP

1653581183450

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

0

0.1

1653581182363

0.1

0.8011547824378098

fHRBe3epvcym1AjdlbFh

{"NO": 719.8831613518657, "YES": 73.43998711947894}

0.9753049601976813

will-i-be-eligible-to-vote-in-the-n

627.360718170808

Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election?

1735689540000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1653581700228

Tetra

Background info: I requested to join the Labour party on May 9th, no response yet.

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-15, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-15, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-15}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7009733705055792, "platformFee": 0.1168288950842632, "liquidityFee": 0.7009733705055792}

0

120.70097337050558

Tetraspace

1683546099889

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

3

0

3

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031592029}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736844530}]

["uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]

0.75

1683546099723

1654872683249

0.26508669833722265

7LIRU5DWq2IB1Vk4qIlt

{"NO": 67.74132374626174, "YES": 460.9082583141984}

0.5

poll-is-cryonics-worth-it-today

678.2114503132345

Poll: Is cryonics worth it today?

1654228740000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

3.6876767181428027

True

play

MKT

public

1653581879349

Martin Randall

Vote YES or NO in the comments. Market will resolve to the average across all responses, eg 80% if 80% of votes are yes. The question is if cryonics is worth it today, on this Earth, with current technology and current law, for someone who is going to legally die at market close. The hypothetical dying person has enou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.495185863403101, "platformFee": 1.0825309772338503, "liquidityFee": 6.495185863403101}

0

1654459676396

106.49518586340307

MartinRandall

1654305146447

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

14

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444176}, {"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "osAdS5WK8oeGbRncQHQU", "createdTime": 1677443903246}]

["technology-default", "cryonics"]

0.25

1654228685210

1654305143676

0.5

0.14324740195863986

Lrb7AYjKyGJivUD1ksRL

{"NO": 878.7486684958513, "YES": 1471.590685320366}

0.09077767673668313

will-there-be-a-morbius-2-officiall

1098.9094698344447

Will there be a Morbius 2 officially announced before 2025?

1735711140000

HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2

cpmm-1

0

9.9925832757148

False

basic

public

1653583071733

Mvem

The film has to be an official sequel to Morbius by any title

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8639145661991776, "platformFee": 0.47731909436652964, "liquidityFee": 2.8639145661991776}

0

1000

Mvem

1704537894238

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7c-9f71f6bf4d66

15

0

11

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543331}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681609580699}]

["culture-default", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1704537894090

0.6431696256544983

8cQcWuYwp5DuH5BF3yTF

{"NO": 1612.0400471367532, "YES": 468.6818413235783}

0

will-80k-stop-listing-openai-capabi

6317.046594902126

Will 80k stop listing OpenAI capabilities roles on their jobs board by end of 2022?

1672549140000

eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812

cpmm-1

0

0.6355616146095246

True

play

NO

public

1653583565810

Emmy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of writing, 80,000 Hours lists positions normal engineering positions at OpenAI on their jobs board. This market will resolve YES if no OpenAI positions, aside from positions related directly to safety and AI policy, are listed on the 80k jobs b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.808046914321961, "platformFee": 0.716457731545716, "liquidityFee": 4.298746389274295}

0

1673033647806

764.2987463892744

emmy

1673380857537

0

https://firebasestorage.…c8a-895ec7e46b2e

0

64

0

2

58

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541448}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529586957}]

["ai", "culture-default"]

0.5

1672545058620

1673380851258

0.86

2J9Jpytaj5nvFdVXz83g

how-will-i-decide-to-create-markets

40

How will I decide to create markets for California primaries?

1653919662411

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.919565222634214

True

play

d1a1f2bd4443

public

1653584152153

Tetra

In California, House primaries are non-partisan. The top two candidates from the primary, decided by choose-one voting, go against each other in the general election. This means that it's possible for there to be two Republicans or two Democrats in the general election. My goal is to provide a single number that give...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.8, "platformFee": 1.2, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653919662411

300

Tetraspace

1653766990591

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "82ad03e0e696", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.98750390489416, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 57.58800374869839, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2J9Jpytaj5nvFdVXz83g", "createdTime": 1653584152443, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1653766989224

1653618139331

{"d1a1f2bd4443": 100}

True

0.07635246125462335

onvL9G6Yi3hwTa6FKKTC

{"NO": 490.55475579682593, "YES": 0.7133716253973716}

0.85

fund-invest-in-austins-trading-prof

472.11033335841364

[FUND] Invest in @Austin's trading profits for the next 30 days

1656226740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

6.612206496382821

True

play

MKT

public

1653586424993

Austin

I suspect that Manifund/equity-based trading is already implemented in Manifold, through binary Yes/No markets. Time to test it out! I'm now selling equity in the total trading profit I make over the next 30 days. Setup: - As of right now, Manifold reports my total trading profit as M$ 2,090. https://i.imgur.com/BYdV...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.214333905061959, "platformFee": 0.9226426678804123, "liquidityFee": 5.535856007282473}

0

1656719227849

305.5358560072824

Austin

1656722641877

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

19

0

1

0.05

1655899116004

1656722637561

0.85

0.9468642312943967

FwgQgj2mLBFUXHhYGes4

{"NO": 4.278741699631013, "YES": 120.87246831383159}

0

will-i-do-an-ambitious-work-thingy

21

Will I do an ambitious work thingy today?

1653620907574

zewCZQv5hRTAzWqFX0n0zUC4VDv1

cpmm-1

0

8.20514823519738

True

play

NO

public

1653590245526

@misha

I think the reference class would be ~20% and maybe ~70% with a commitment device like this one. I will try to bring it up by other means.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1653620907574

100.76519011701046

misha

1653616968354

0

https://firebasestorage.…d23-f8eca84b9afb

3

0

0.95

1653616968149

0.3868027868121537

0.09236804049729853

gK3vbWIo9ASmBOXTNILq

{"NO": 570.2102409224137, "YES": 4.603259995406006e-10}

1

pump-the-mana

1600

Pump the mana

1653592604365

HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2

cpmm-1

0

8.494110114910596

True

play

YES

public

1653592340281

Mathias Foster

I'm not sure how this works?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2982493605952668, "platformFee": 0.0497082267658778, "liquidityFee": 0.2982493605952668}

0

1653592604365

100.29824936059526

MathiasFoster

1653592580645

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c

2

0

0.05

1653592579183

0.9999715524680481

0.3316772210206337

iFReIpnOWPN5nGxUIlil

{"NO": 121.6593732388354, "YES": 72.39656323082916}

0

will-the-faa-complete-their-environ

40

Will the FAA complete their Environmental Assessment of Starship by May 31st?

1654021458883

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

3.106969469791912

True

play

NO

public

1653595885321

Bolton Bailey

According to this article https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/faa-delays-environmental-decision-on-spacexs-starship-launches-to-may.html "The Federal Aviation Administration for a fourth time delayed its environmental review of SpaceX’s Starship rocket program in Texas. The FAA now expects to release the assessment May 31....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.210790373564782, "platformFee": 0.20179839559413035, "liquidityFee": 1.210790373564782}

0

1654021458883

101.21079037356478

BoltonBailey

1653681221339

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

2

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500934}]

["politics-default"]

0.33

1653681221164

0.4547385661934179

0.06118226329199015

9qSe7JZxvC1pyYdNW9sm

{"NO": 139.99111820153138, "YES": 0.27655285875347585}

1

test-market-72db63ad2ccc

40

Test Market

1653598370054

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

8.074484097319324

True

play

YES

public

1653598281012

SneakySly

Ignore, testing.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.05329079081180756, "platformFee": 0.008881798468634594, "liquidityFee": 0.05329079081180756}

0

1653598370054

100.0532907908118

SneakySly

1653598364760

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

1

0

0.05

1653598362954

0.05

0.9354285878607344

gDFPBagjZUa4Gg8bGDtY

{"NO": 0.012537112308242813, "YES": 165.99950362599697}

0

will-this-question-fail-to-resolve

66

Will this question fail to resolve?

1653599078285

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

8.080027062481435

True

play

NO

public

1653599061147

Scott Lawrence

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0029782440183963466, "platformFee": 0.0004963740030660578, "liquidityFee": 0.0029782440183963466}

0

1653599078285

100.0029782440184

ScottLawrence

1653599072574

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

1

0

0.95

1653599071325

0.95

0.5012977337282143

GNxbVR1CIv5MIUjbU7VK

{"NO": 85.60792127473756, "YES": 122.09097353221557}

1

will-our-family-get-baby-formula-fr

140

Will Our Family Get Baby Formula from Our Subscribe-and-Save Amazon Subscription in early July?

1657511940000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

2.74346591201789

True

play

YES

public

1653600840585

Zvi Mowshowitz

We generally use this: https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B077MF79H1/ref=sns_myd_detail_page. However it is temporarily unavailable and we are told not to expect it on June 3. When the next monthly order comes around, will we get it or a replacement baby formula?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.964092256915008, "platformFee": 0.19019498306901683, "liquidityFee": 1.141169898414101}

0

1657675672593

101.14116989841409

ZviMowshowitz

1657501810096

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

10

0

1

0.5

1657501809975

0.4134314821122699

0.6469317862624427

Snj8Me8FHuVYiSJme7r4

{"NO": 54.345857452030025, "YES": 145.37519246286334}

0

will-the-linked-markets-formulation

60

Will the linked market's formulation for selling equity work?

1656734340000

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-1

0

3.096137532755322

True

play

NO

public

1653600847351

Forrest

The linked market: https://manifold.markets/Austin/fund-invest-in-austins-trading-prof To quote from its description: > Q: "How sure are you that this all works?" > A: This particular market formulation? 65%. Equity represented in binary CFMMs? 90%. If there seems to me to be a clear consensus on whether it works, t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3636351582906483, "platformFee": 0.22727252638177473, "liquidityFee": 1.3636351582906483}

0

1657050259065

101.36363515829065

Forrest

1656690531680

0

https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

2

0

1

0.65

1653615240432

1656690527289

0.40652010198366634

0.95

CMvfFRJse2PvgAo2dqvv

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-this-market-post

0

Will this market post?

1653601662632

62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2

cpmm-1

0

8.967372415006668

True

play

YES

public

1653601656058

Marshall Polaris

Get in while it's hot! I changed a lot about the API validation.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653601662632

100

mqp

1653601656058

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1b-b4b038ba53f6

0

[{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}]

["marshalls-group-for-testing"]

0.95

0.5141092873489674

h7CATKjIwqNIVAzuQe1y

{"NO": 378.1790425029552, "YES": 32.08627892258293}

1

will-i-have-a-great-time-at-mexifol

377.1039115045798

Will I have a great time at Mexifold?

1656716563643

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

3.368589974529883

True

play

YES

public

1653606605814

Ian Philips

I'll resolve this to yes if after I get back home and conclude that the trip was indeed a great time. BUT if I don't have a good time (too many loud snorers? food poisoning? too many gusanos in my mezcal?) I will resolve it to NO.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6764491921078233, "platformFee": 0.5509884136821577, "liquidityFee": 3.305930482092946}

0

1656716563643

103.30593048209295

ian

1656716664280

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

8

0

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435471}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656004129525

1656716662548

0.9257654605191196

0.327050250865449

XJqUVkkFhCGBW6mnfxLk

{"NO": 429.6393092950137, "YES": 5.266639407555699}

1

given-2000-usd-be-donated-through-m

330

Given ">2000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June" will at least 50% of the donations be made in the last 48 hours of May (San Francisco Time)

1653868800000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

5.090520354656571

True

play

YES

public

1653608003952

Undox

Resolves N/A if ">2000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June" is false. Otherwise resolves YES if at least 50% of the donations be made in the last 48 hours of May (San Francisco Time) Otherwise NO This is a market to test my suspicion that MM is going to donate 2k at the last minute, and there is insid...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.164144229917865, "platformFee": 0.36069070498631095, "liquidityFee": 2.164144229917865}

0

1654241978905

102.16414422991785

Undox

1653959053057

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

6

0

1

0.3

1653866362138

1653959051635

0.9753974932965636

0.5085873208793309

nNw4J8tWCSCBW9Bt2SXD

{"NO": 353.9542820967424, "YES": 92.77869856389951}

1

will-jerry-jeudy-score-more-fantasy

651.8442620392424

Will Jerry Jeudy score more fantasy points than JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2022?

1672635540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

1.9774658267495389

True

play

YES

public

1653609421666

David Glidden

Bobby Koch (https://twitter.com/RekedFantasy) bet Rocky (https://twitter.com/DynastyFFAddict) $5 that Jerry Jeudy scores more fantasy points than Smith-Schuster in 2022. See https://twitter.com/RekedFantasy/status/1528492890808365056. Opening at 55% per Rocky's poll: https://twitter.com/DynastyFFAddict/status/152853105...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672664799831

200

dglid

1672664796541

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

9

0

1

8

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407448}, {"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "createdTime": 1659151238558}]

["sports-default", "fantasy-football-nfl"]

0.55

1672634713112

1672664793816

0.8

0.5822793127921366

vzvfVLHAcXGetoPWDa5Z

{"NO": 201.43050121261734, "YES": 220.6151129119092}

0.5599999999999999

will-10year-treasury-yields-in-2032

261.20920146599025

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

1988179140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0.06885018844113064

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1653612782652

Jack

Resolves YES if on May 26 2032 (10 years from the date this market opened), the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 > 3.5%. Resolves NO if <= 3.5%. If this data source is not available, another equivalent one will be used. For context, currently 10-year treasury yields are 2.75% and 30-year treasury yie...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.012886881338084244}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.862627995276944, "platformFee": 0.18809836119302809, "liquidityFee": 1.1285901671581684}

0

221.12859016715817

jack

1717016037155

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

10

0

8

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577241}]

["economics-default"]

0.1074270928476438

0.75

1717016033684

1653676468694

0.5184042820571754

E0iC9CrjrEREobFGXFFE

{"NO": 1175.1826236798431, "YES": 12.120163011763019}

1

will-manifold-fix-the-page-scroll-p

1163.002570052026

Will Manifold fix the page scroll position resetting to the top when I hit back on my browser?

1654486485367

nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2

cpmm-1

0

4.776969435046894

True

play

YES

public

1653614488316

Akhil Wable

Clicking through on a question from my feed, and then going back resets the feed to the top. This makes me less likely to open a question lest I lose my scroll position on the feed; or I have to do the whole open in a new tab thing. Will Manifold fix this by June 10?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.53963609497832, "platformFee": 0.9232726824963867, "liquidityFee": 5.53963609497832}

0

1654486485367

105.5396360949783

akhil

1654478472891

0

https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

8

0

0.5

1654478469147

1654438514260

0.9905097881387213

0.4844924329575537

NDHBYkLOYDbjWeYi23Nx

{"NO": 127.62960059725954, "YES": 102.5867468738764}

0

will-the-nba-finals-go-to-a-game-7

673.0114305698336

Will the NBA finals go to a game 7?

1655355540000

HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2

cpmm-1

0

2.514193048590548

True

play

NO

public

1653616360290

Mvem

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.465283854087354, "platformFee": 1.244213975681226, "liquidityFee": 7.465283854087354}

0

1655438866513

107.4652838540873

Mvem

1655345387948

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7c-9f71f6bf4d66

10

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400984}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1691181993528}]

["sports-default", "basketball"]

0.5

1655345386674

1655163092331

False

0.5390138836463451

0.5449800024628803

qWEcz8Z5lPSpyzqxhcYU

{"NO": 813.4515237849441, "YES": 24.061663898627515}

1

will-the-sp-500-be-higher-on-june-1

2062.3275401244123

Will the S&P 500 be higher on June 1, 2022 than today?

1654114180108

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

3.817335379830894

True

play

YES

public

1653618283789

Enopoletus Harding

Resolves on the basis of this link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.796951960292024, "platformFee": 1.799491993382004, "liquidityFee": 10.796951960292024}

0

1654114180108

110.79695196029202

EnopoletusHarding

1654107624366

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

16

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575977}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1654107623189

1653670353769

0.9758982576795735

0.48762764012614757

jk1ERDktRPIYVM6tbxet

{"NO": 115.35378962858748, "YES": 116.31195493422025}

1

will-the-warriors-beat-the-celtics

389.1033703920051

Will the Warriors beat the Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals?

1654732800000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

2.491163266078648

True

play

YES

public

1653621986146

Richard

This resolves to NA if the Celtics don’t make the Finals. The survey closes before game 3.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.932773654126371, "platformFee": 1.3221289423543952, "liquidityFee": 7.932773654126371}

0

1663705828663

107.93277365412638

Richard

1663705853679

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

10

0

1

11

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406727}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779720414}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "g...

["sports-default", "please-resolve", "basketball"]

0.5

1654662424107

1663705851723

False

0.4855611269487341

0.06279990846514177

sh4zPe5GnhlKAsBN7aJa

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-fe8311cd6ed4

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1653623073264

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1653623048410

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1653623073264

100.01704414600928

PeterBerggren

1653623068740

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

1

0

0.05

1653623068557

0.05

0.06279990846514177

5jXdwITpoRejhUCBBSCh

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-11ee7e562625

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1653623098546

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1653623089774

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1653623098546

100.01704414600928

unit_24601

1653623096642

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.05

1653623095224

0.05

0.06279990846514177

Ds5ev5lQDupGGhgL4Nfi

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-d734cccf466f

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1653623134849

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1653623126252

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1653623134849

100.01704414600928

SayJarva

1653623132000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.05

1653623131842

0.05

0.06279990846514177

mXlyaAzTYLsbXxyUOzoe

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-6f3d0840f50d

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1653623160485

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1653623152605

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1653623160485

100.01704414600928

PeterBerggrenf455

1653623157949

0

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will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-abf7af4ee9d7

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1653623184244

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cpmm-1

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8.069972873094368

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YES

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1653623174597

Peter Berggren

BINARY

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1653623184244

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PeterBerggren

1653623181110

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1653623180927

0.05

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when-will-fusion-provide-1-of-us-el

2

When will fusion provide >1% of US electrical grid power?

1653685650297

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cpmm-multi-1

0

5.012422314310263

True

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CANCEL

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1653626679919

Jonathan Ray

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1653685650297

260

JonathanRay

1653685565759

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ANYONE

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i-will-switch-to-my-new-phone-by-th

145

I will switch to my new phone by the end of the week

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1653626723314

Jack2

Switching everything over to a new device is still way too much of a pain compared to what it should be #Personal #Commitments

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Jack2

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conditioned-on-dems-losing-the-midt

51.64219494594762

Conditioned on Dems losing the midterms, will any Democratic senator switch parties?

1672559940000

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cpmm-1

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3.6982461304030223

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CANCEL

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1653626961774

Rahul Sridhar

This question resolves to YES if Democrats lose their majority in the Senate AND any current Democratic Senator leaves the Democratic party afterwards (either switching parties or becoming an Independent). If Democrats retain their majority, it resolves to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. Context: some dude on Twitt...

BINARY

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fortenforge

1672602830097

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will-i-redesign-my-site-in-the-next

23

Will I redesign my site in the next two weeks to my satisfaction?

1654844340000

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cpmm-1

0

3.677791254160966

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1653629165774

Conflux

I’m planning to redesign my site, Puzzles for Progress (tinyurl.com/puzzlesforprogress), and am about to mention it on said site. This market will resolve to YES if I redesign it in two weeks such that I am satisfied with it (i.e. have no remaining things I want changed), and to NO otherwise. My goal is to do this, but...

BINARY

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1654719571994

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will-i-be-part-of-a-group-renting-t

115

Will I be part of a group renting The Rectory on VRBO for the purposes of attending EAG DC?

1658869459540

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cpmm-1

0

4.407064874664236

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YES

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1653635729696

Rachel Shu

The Effective Altruism Global Conference in Washington D.C. will take place September 23-25. I am interested in this rental option, which is a former rectory: https://www.vrbo.com/349058?adultsCount=10&arrival=2022-09-20&departure=2022-09-27&unitId=349058 It is 1.5 miles away from the EAG venue, sleeps 16, and is ~$80...

BINARY

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1658869459540

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noumena

1659724705550

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will-resolve-11

100

will resolve 1==1

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cpmm-1

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8.125090873627006

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1653636084516

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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Electricitypipe

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who-will-be-the-next-governor-of-te

2695.509543371386

Who will be the next governor of Texas?

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cpmm-multi-1

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1653636151662

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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ANYONE

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["us-politics", "politics-default", "olivia", "us-2022-elections"]

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will-this-question-resolve-to-no

139.8300207405783

Will this question resolve to NO?

1654300301829

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0

2.7210606263083004

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1653636382970

Alex Rockwell

Oh no, what have I done!?

BINARY

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1654300301829

101.57271613073465

AlexRockwell

1654300298152

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1654300297296

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{"NO": 155.9073078955129, "YES": 131.6108581892953}

1

will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-664a17ef82fc

229.1892183243483

Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 30 lose more than 10lbs over 4 weeks?

1657537200000

MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2

cpmm-1

0

2.2258596604271252

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YES

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1653649094266

Jonathan Nankivell

On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. Th...

BINARY

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0

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1657831689203

143.472191473311

JonathanNankivell

1657526814207

0

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535173}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529538119}]

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0

will-getting-a-coffee-in-italy-requ

205.1231906818584

Will getting a coffee in Italy require a Green Pass on Jan 1st?

1669939140000

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cpmm-1

0

3.2451014096471353

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NO

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1653651517499

Antani

This questions resolves to YES if on January 1st 2023 bars/restaurants require a Green Pass, or any proof of vaccination or recovery from covid, to sit it and consume. It resolves to NO otherwise. It closes on December 1st.

BINARY

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antani

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will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-1b8212467912

12565.274090004983

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $710 on May 27, 2022?

1653678000000

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cpmm-1

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5.17341422337212

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1653654653063

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...

BINARY

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1653682022407

104.38728778849524

Predictor

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["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 314.538870643295, "YES": 45.834364217534166}

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will-the-dow-jones-close-over-33000

620

Will the Dow Jones close over 33,000 today?

1653678000000

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cpmm-1

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2.923000585331086

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1653659578697

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if Dow closes above 33,000. As of 9:50am ET it is at 32,830 (up 208 on the day so far).

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BTE

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