CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will I get toothpaste through security?

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CANCEL

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nic

I will soon be flying from ZRH to LHR. I bought special toothpaste my significant other particularly likes. I only have carry-on. The ZRH airport regulation says you are only allowed to bring 100ml. The toothpaste says its 113 g / 4.0 OZ. I have two packages. Will security take away my toothpaste?

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Will a World War II veteran live to see AGI?

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Stochastic Cockatoo

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Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

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Stochastic Cockatoo

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I will resolve this question YES

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Matt P

Other people have more interesting questions than I do, so I'm using my daily free market subsidy to instead bet on their questions (mainly @jack 's).

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MattP

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did-the-police-shoot-and-kill-at-le

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Did The Police Shoot and Kill at Least One Innocent Child During the Mass Shooting in Texas in May 2022?

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cpmm-1

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Zvi Mowshowitz

If we have no definitive answer by the end of the year, this will resolve to Zvi's best probability estimate at his discretion with assistance of Austin/MM.

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ZviMowshowitz

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will-the-current-covid-surge-peak-i

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Will the current Covid surge peak in the next week?

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Jack

Resolution: Resolves based on the 7-day average of new cases on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. Resolves YES if the max 7-day average over the next week (5/25 through 5/31) is higher than than the max 7-day average over the following week (6/1 through 6/7). Background: Indicators such as ...

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jack

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Poll: Are numeric markets a good feature?

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SG

Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether you think numeric markets on Manifold are a good feature. Right now, numeric markets let users bet on a specific scalar value within a numeric range. We then use users' bets to construct the market's probability density function. If you think the basic fu...

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will-manifold-subsidize-trading-fee

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Will Manifold subsidize trading fees?

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cpmm-1

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NO

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Scott Lawrence

Right now, market creation is (heavily) subsidized. This incentivizes people to create markets, but not to create popular markets. At the same time, there's a direct disincentive to trade. Subsidizing trading fees instead fixes some of these issues. It decreases the trading disincentive, while still providing a market...

BINARY

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ScottLawrence

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what-swag-should-manifold-make

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What swag should Manifold make?

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Alice

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What swag should Manifold make? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Manifold's planning to make these items redeemable with mana, kind of like the prize gallery at an arcade! Vote on what you'd like to see. "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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Alice

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ANYONE

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Will the trading-fee delay be eliminated?

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Scott Lawrence

At the moment, trading fees are not payed out until the market resolves. This is good: it incentivizes creators to actually resolve their markets! On the other hand, it means that (absent the daily free M$100), creation of even a popular market means you lose M$100 until market resolution time. This makes creation of ...

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Am I alive today?

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Predictor 🔥

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am-i-alive-today-5bb0bd635600

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Am I alive today?

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Trent Yazzo

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do-i-feel-alive-today

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Do I feel alive today?

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YES

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1653682687215

Quantum Gambler

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Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

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Jonathan Ray

Close date updated to 2049-12-31 11:11 am

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Which of these Possible Manifold Foci should be Manifold's primary focus?

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Daniel Reeves

This question resolves mostly beauty-contest-style (close date extended until quiescence) to the things Manifold should be most focused on. I say "mostly beauty contest" because I'll veto anything I don't think belongs on the list. If a response is added that I agree should be on the list then I'll append it to the lis...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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dreev

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ANYONE

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will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-c7c8ce595448

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Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 25 lose more than 10lbs over 4 weeks?

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cpmm-1

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YES

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1653688332427

Jonathan Nankivell

On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. Th...

BINARY

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JonathanNankivell

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["researchbet", "science-default"]

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will-the-terraluna-cryptocurrency-r

735.0806618061614

Will the Terra/Luna cryptocurrency recover from its death spiral?

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cpmm-1

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1653688741425

Daniel Reeves

Let's define that arbitrarily as TerraUSD (the stablecoin counterpart to Luna) trading above 50 cents for 2 days in a row. https://www.coinbase.com/price/terrausd I plan to resolve early if the answer becomes definitive or potentially extend it if the question still seems interesting. (Matt Levine talked about this ...

BINARY

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dreev

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which-of-these-solutions-is-the-mos

321

Which of these solutions is the most important for improving the state of abundant housing in San Francisco?

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cpmm-multi-1

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CANCEL

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1653689076982

Finn Macken

The goal of this question is to test the ability of prediction markets to crowdsource solutions to important social issues in San Francisco. The seeded options were chosen based on Roote's initial research into the state of abundant housing.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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FinnMacken81bd

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ANYONE

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69

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["politics-default", "housing-markets"]

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will resolve Y

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i-will-submit-a-pr-to-manifold-befo

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I will submit a PR to Manifold before June

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Jack2

I've been meaning to, and I've looked around the codebase a bit to answer some of my questions about how the site works, but haven't gotten around to actually making a change yet. #Personal #Commitments

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will-the-nasdaq-composite-close-abo

1172.9843400130267

Will the Nasdaq Composite close above 12000 on Fri Jun 3

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kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1

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3.882636959401377

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YES

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1653696988182

Alex Rockwell

By closing price, no after hours.

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1654287445542

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budzinski-wins-the-democratic-prima

196.63934426229525

The Democratic candidate will lose the House election for IL-13

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cpmm-1

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3.3285077073608313

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Bolton Bailey

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1668056504214

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BoltonBailey

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will-rob-gronkowski-play-in-the-nfl

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Will Rob Gronkowski play in the NFL in 2022?

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cpmm-1

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6.119044947565351

True

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NO

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1653699590468

David Glidden

Resolves YES if Rob Gronkowski is rostered by an NFL team as of the first Sunday of the 2022 regular season.

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dglid

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will-manifold-offer-a-perpetual-swa

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Will Manifold offer a perpetual swap this year?

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1653701980890

Austin

Perpetual swaps are financial wizardry that let people bet on the value of any asset. Manifold could eg. offer a SOL/M$ perpetual swap contract, tracking some known SOL oracle - and then people could have their portfolio track the price of SOL. See https://medium.com/derivadex/what-are-perpetual-swaps-130236587df2 It'...

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will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-6f1a901e1fcf

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Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in North Carolina?

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0

0.850565272973042

True

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NO

public

1653702167222

N.C. Young

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1667974923916

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NcyRocks

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will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio

2611.572007238201

Will Manifold set abandoned questions to resolve to MKT, by default?

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cpmm-1

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2.2876022863128695

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1653703473633

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@MilliOnaire is working on a way to automatically resolve markets to MKT probability, after a certain period of time. I think this is quite a good thing - it means that traders can free up - For abandoned markets, someone else can come in and provide liquidity, and bet the MKT to what they think it should be - If the...

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1672558296141

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What's wrong with my lungs?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.858600033836977

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CANCEL

public

1653703874561

Rachel Shu

I recently discovered that I have some kind of heart or lung problem. My spirometer reading (lung volume) is 1400ml when the healthy range is 2300-2800. So 50-60% of normal. My VO2(max) is 29 when it should be 38-41. <26 puts you in the hospital. Getting a whole bunch more tests next week. This all makes sense to me. ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1660445818365

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noumena

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0

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ANYONE

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1654217451885

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True

0.2674966104248578

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will-you-be-able-to-dm-someone-thro

1129.3564288614705

Will you be able to DM someone through Manifold this year?

1672559940000

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cpmm-1

0

3.1728527731816714

True

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NO

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1653704668407

Austin

Pros: - The ability to DM cool people and get a response is one of the things that makes Twitter so successful - Maybe could piggyback off a Discord or Twitter integration?? - Move more content and activity onto Manifold directly; never have to leave the site. Cons: - Could have a lot of technical complexity (esp if M...

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will-gwinnett-county-georgia-vote-f

110.2105848426817

Will Gwinnett County, Georgia vote for Abrams with more than 60% of the vote?

1667361540000

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cpmm-1

0

1.8675021788852786

True

play

NO

public

1653708287744

Enopoletus Harding

Fastest D trending county in the state. Abrams 56.6%, Biden 58.4%. Can Abrams get over 60% this time? May 27, 11:24pm: Ossoff and Warnock both got over 60%.

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EnopoletusHarding

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1667337129216

0.7288792027936509

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what-will-be-my-favorite-meal-powde

1561.4823943329736

What will be my favorite meal powder (Soylent, Huel, etc) (brand and flavor) in 3 months?

1698640337397

eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.645242956774769

True

play

53a5a84ce86c

public

1653709549568

Emmy

By favorite I really mean favorite that's available in the US. My actual favorite is Queal but I can't get it here. Current favorite is Soylent chocolate but it's not very contested. Ordered some Huel cookies and cream yesteray.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1698640342178

660

emmy

1698640132694

0

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ANYONE

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15

1661714105533

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0.07217552611609089

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0.677449318098386

will-i-find-curable-useful-after-2

140.01372490492676

Will I find Curable useful after 2 weeks of use?

1671492663497

kzTzAuoOi0ezsKFnwEtyktezUSJ2

cpmm-1

0

8.08615407234976

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653709965284

Data Generating Process

This question resolves as YES if after trying Curable for 2 weeks, I haven't found it useful. May 27, 8:55pm: EDIT: This question resolves as YES if after trying Curable for 2 weeks, I have found it useful for back pain. May 27, 8:55pm: Curable is this: https://www.curablehealth.com/

BINARY

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1671492663497

100.45218525825439

datagenproc

1671492662846

0

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1667245197150

1671492660371

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0.21548685748884308

did-at-least-one-police-officer-res

1045.9154815967258

Did at least one police officer rescue their own child in the Uvalde Texas School Shooting?

1751093940000

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cpmm-1

0.06770497401009586

9.698862466392235

False

basic

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1653724719341

Unconditional Probability

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1000

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1712415671755

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will-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-the-last

1224.9985412147155

Will Queen Elizabeth II be the last Queen of the United Kingdom?

4810075140000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0.08538900720517732

9.683523449559122

False

basic

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1653740834238

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland no longer exists under that name, or ceases to be a monarchy. Resolves No if there is a new female monarch of the UK.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par...

BINARY

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1000

MartinRandall

1701166160185

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https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

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will-denmark-abolish-the-eu-defence

2698

Will Denmark abolish the EU defence opt-out?

1654126122639

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

5.306389508657461

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YES

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1653743213881

Tetra

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Danish_European_Union_opt-out_referendum Denmark and the EU previously agreed that Denmark would not be involved in the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Social Democrats, Venstre, Socialist People's Party, Social Liberal Party, a...

BINARY

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1654126122639

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Tetraspace

1654126117489

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will-there-be-more-atlantic-hurrica

6078.812260343756

Will there be more Atlantic hurricanes in 2022 than 2021?

1669856923367

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

4.538679081820324

True

play

YES

public

1653744409456

Ben

Resolves YES if there are >7 storms classified as hurricanes in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. 2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season

BINARY

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bcongdon

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529412938}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "gunHjt3ieMZQtp72XSPiugz5M0g2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668116170611}]

["world-default", "please-resolve"]

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awLgGxFWfkPhYvQ8UvPa

{"NO": 196.92266698732317, "YES": 53.97027624527319}

1

will-the-audience-score-for-morbius

682.77137563396

Will the audience score for Morbius on RottenTomatoes be over 70% on July 1?

1656583200000

AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42

cpmm-1

0

2.919910747368726

True

play

YES

public

1653753742846

NoRespect

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/morbius\nMarket closes the day before. I will check the above page some time on July 1 Pacific time. If at that time the score is 70% or less this resolves as NO; 71% or more = YES."

BINARY

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NoRespect

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[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545480}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860968144}]

["culture-default", "media-rating-futures"]

0.5

1656533844265

1656513286119

0.7853979592438022

R1lBcAGZsNDqYDd87ME1

how-should-manifold-encourage-tradi

1085.4591460789684

How should Manifold encourage trading on long-term markets?

1654412340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.677638741772601

True

play

MKT

public

1653755177610

Jack

Currently, trading on markets that resolve in a few days is far more incentivized compared to trading on markets that resolve in months or years, because you can earn similar amounts of profits much sooner. The M$ you put into a 1-year market could be traded hundreds of times on shorter-term markets for much more profi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.388677091113506, "platformFee": 1.5971692727783764, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654415731967

1040.0000000000002

jack

1654440796600

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

23

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e11fbd4d64a6", "prob": 0.016669653771832427, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.1446934558438091, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.535358201156116, "textFts": "", "contractId": "R1lBcAGZsNDqYDd87ME1", "createdTime": 1653755177741, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

1654410540700

1654440791500

{"1d0cec55d0b2": 2.380161108406627, "a3c0e3ba5f3e": 49.0109173323727, "a6d5c3c81578": 26.447128170130544, "fa53e5284db8": 19.32441986415719, "ff4eb10de457": 2.83737352493294}

True

8uinvL4Q1sqr5gLwKDY7

who-will-be-the-starting-qb-for-the

312

Who will be the starting QB for the San Francisco 49ers Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season?

1662915600000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.729530868019003

True

play

90ec32aa0c80

public

1653757337676

David Glidden

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662921124297

300

dglid

1662205453620

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cd87ebf5cb1e", "prob": 0.058912244320859626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.554908665728651, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.81313298981578, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8uinvL4Q1sqr5gLwKDY7", "createdTime": 1653757337760, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397315}]

["sports-default"]

1662205452352

{"90ec32aa0c80": 100}

True

0.06568561160391029

IBmy2171gYFLY1rKw2ZF

{"NO": 120.70311606248417, "YES": 7.33740455890051}

1

will-i-kick-a-soccer-ball-next-week

89.57165524997842

Will I kick a soccer ball next week?

1654487940000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

8.019504996590658

True

play

YES

public

1653757947089

Joel Becker

Last night, ~5 of my peers claimed that they would like to play a game of soccer against me next week. I have 3 soccer balls in my possession and expect to receive a soccer ball pump early next week. However, I think only 1 (Lucas) has a car. Will I get to kick a ball?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4493710212539523, "platformFee": 0.24156183687565874, "liquidityFee": 1.4493710212539523}

0

1654718878284

101.44937102125394

JoelBecker

1654459020046

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

7

0

1

0.05

1654459018559

0.5362899945459688

ZxPjkyNCnGBkWi84l0zU

who-will-be-the-next-governor-of-mi

5531

Who will be the next governor of Michigan?

1668238914827

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.623959962711572

True

play

8286956340e3

public

1653760038733

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668238914827

580

LivInTheLookingGlass

1668238688950

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "277006934bad", "prob": 0.00031537622128259037, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0006721917189752971, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.1307241330945716, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZxPjkyNCnGBkWi84l0zU", "createdTime": 1653760038816, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

15

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492244}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493931}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "olivia"]

1668238688787

1668196626718

{"8286956340e3": 100}

True

0.5353838678571061

w5rPH92YkaXJIFw6LaUV

{"NO": 664.1301501820067, "YES": 32.439222653485174}

1

poll-should-we-keep-the-quickbet-ar

1548.293514503711

Poll: Should we keep the quick-bet arrows?

1654405140000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

3.2897605403364607

True

play

YES

public

1653761214416

SG

Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether you think Manifold should keep its current one-click betting interface using up- and down- arrows. (If you like the current implementation or think we're only a few tweaks away from this being a good experience, vote YES, otherwise vote NO.) This market ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.689016135434052, "platformFee": 2.781502689239008, "liquidityFee": 16.689016135434052}

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1654457727619

116.6890161354341

SG

1654390649114

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44

0

1

0.5

1654390648971

1654382420803

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0.4414633148051516

eOTkC23OcEDwzK4lMqCb

{"NO": 1239.6567315371506, "YES": 2.100939062768475}

1

will-we-ever-get-the-free-m500

1840.7455325840956

Will we ever get the free M$500?

1656281387519

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

6.101453616716091

True

play

YES

public

1653762519372

Enopoletus Harding

This question resolves to Yes if we ever get the M$500 from filling out the survey. It resolves to No if we never do.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.988793913019869, "platformFee": 0.9803870671036727, "liquidityFee": 5.8823224026220355}

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1656281387519

109.4049652607035

EnopoletusHarding

1656645641202

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

18

0

0.25

1656281339884

1656645636986

0.9827343007656261

0.5

mxBxm4PC5q8DsQS57BGR

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-the-champions-league-final-sta

0

Will the Champions League final start before 21:35 CEST?

1653766616460

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

NO

public

1653765225725

FRC

The final was supposed to start at 21:00, got delayed til 21:15 because of rioting at the stadium, then to 21:30. Will the game begin before 21:35?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1653766616460

100

FRCassarino

1653765225725

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407228}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000370}]

["sports-default", "soccer"]

0.5

False

0.5

0.7173625847770077

dHSiMynTZPBlryDxA6la

{"NO": 16420.084757593777, "YES": 249.63332892234823}

1

will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close

46590.62511997644

Will the Musk Twitter deal close by the end of 2023?

1666933335627

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

1.2004214328383478

True

basic

YES

public

1653766270972

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's already a similar market -- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 215.16650459675827, "platformFee": 6.707749097278905, "liquidityFee": 40.246494583673424}

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1666933335627

1104.419323254363

dreev

1710451936704

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

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0

127

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.85

1666922864835

1666920006567

False

0.9940457852664119

0.630533143085767

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{"NO": 586.4320859206025, "YES": 221.50886712330703}

0

will-selfreported-iq-correlate-with

2469.0346943218265

Will self-reported IQ correlate with any sexual fetish (more than 0.12)?

1654973963658

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

1.2580886764547083

True

play

NO

public

1653767612386

Aella

I tested for ~300 sexual fetishes (though many of them were questions that only appeared conditional on previous questions). I also asked people "Have you had an officially administered IQ test?" If they said yes, I asked what their score was. The question is, will the self-reported IQ answers correlate (negatively or...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.350436613345416, "platformFee": 1.8917394355575698, "liquidityFee": 11.350436613345416}

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1654973963658

311.3504366133455

Aella

1655047708867

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

25

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529462}, {"name": "Differential Psychology", "slug": "differential-psychology", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "uC4Dv1bqR2HhA54hcPBX", "createdTime": 1679779000441}]

["science-default", "differential-psychology"]

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1654959239115

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0.8187792968945553

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8t5VXKzk4j8EgbZGABhJ

{"NO": 667.9367346148924, "YES": 16.764646834714142}

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will-manifold-markets-add-a-way-to-e27206a8b4b3

570

Will Manifold Markets add a way to like or upvote comments during 2022?

1655567112950

Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2

cpmm-1

0

4.199113668161836

True

play

YES

public

1653768013552

RoboTeddy

Any systematic means of positively acknowledging a comment (a heart, like, upvote, thumbs up, tip, etc) which is specifically built into the user interface would count as a “yes”.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.648686545686088, "platformFee": 0.31708423211569187, "liquidityFee": 1.9025053926941506}

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1655567112950

101.90250539269417

TedSuzman

1655567105464

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c

7

0

0.5

1655567104139

1655533831381

0.9261926236848039

0.3447348970155363

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{"NO": 90.20817027482045, "YES": 561.596692120715}

0

will-manifold-add-leverage-before-2

757.3853310025877

Will manifold add leverage before 2023?

1672552740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.414064390532107

True

play

NO

public

1653770825186

Gigacasting

Any feature with >2x leverage on average will trigger a YES resolution Sample proposal: 100% of your capital, no leverage 25% of your capital, 2x leverage <5% of your capital, 4x leverage Makes it much easier to allocate to long-term markets or a variety of them

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 4.111753761990599, "platformFee": 0.1401963692499902, "liquidityFee": 0.8411782154999413}

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1672561793295

180.84117821549995

Gigacasting

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0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

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1

14

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1672459334970

1655995160678

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{"NO": 2020.195724608987, "YES": 1323.5372494804799}

0.4949902704296409

will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison

34892.60050707248

Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?

1893819540000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

8.055789319801764

False

basic

public

1653785372096

Duncn

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.08850062835303174, "month": 0.046188074480352004}

0

{"creatorFee": 374.9283532586621, "platformFee": 34.38839795209096, "liquidityFee": 8.347299993313692}

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Duncn

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0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495344}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1676940776677}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId...

["politics-default", "magaland", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.10721602808625205

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1720158973154

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{"NO": 149.17276225341885, "YES": 3.248371048290519}

0.8

i-will-keep-making-commitment-marke

127

I will keep making commitment markets for the next 4 weeks

1656359752764

CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2

cpmm-1

0

7.362287900710233

True

play

MKT

public

1653789443380

Jack2

Resolves YES if I make at least 1 commitment market a week for the next 4 weeks. Counting starts after this one. #Personal #Commitments

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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Jack2

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1656090394018

1656359863253

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{"NO": 154.85971826357473, "YES": 0.11528210425155597}

1

i-will-resolve-this-yes

55

I will resolve this YES

1653791794322

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

7.995191250769848

True

play

YES

public

1653791745297

Matt P

Secure the bag.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8416904185515, "platformFee": 0.14028173642525, "liquidityFee": 0.8416904185515}

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1653791794322

100.84169041855151

MattP

1653791789636

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

0

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1653791788281

0.05

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{"NO": 479.93422538733296, "YES": 1122.4167973318822}

0.17151412401015276

will-thomas-kwa-graduate-by-2025

668.4867704923621

Will Thomas Kwa graduate by 2025

1735804740000

UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53

cpmm-1

0

10.269209814321142

False

play

public

1653792558176

Raj Thimmiah

Thomas Kwa is enrolled in university. If he graduates, this market resolves "YES".

BINARY

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0

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661.1196040367821

raj

1718222940755

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c

1

7

0

5

0.7

1718222936131

1676611808580

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{"NO": 146.48864573078143, "YES": 821.4722370172009}

0

will-i-learn-of-any-sexual-assaults

1033.3131755834615

Will I learn of any sexual assaults in Neogenesis House this year

1672559940000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

10.073047206140489

True

play

NO

public

1653797855541

Sinclair Chen

Same rules same norms as https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-i-learn-of-any-new-sexual-assa but for Neogenesis (or Neo Genesis? like Eva? idk. the new house in the schism, whatever it's called)

BINARY

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Sinclair

1672397886993

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["sex-and-love", "scandal-markets"]

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{"NO": 102.11473710261593, "YES": 106.35140488368388}

0

will-i-notice-a-significant-improve

131.63492614990062

Will I notice a significant improvement in exercise peformance after I start taking Creatine supplement?

1658645940000

Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2

cpmm-1

0

3.1815472948469425

True

play

NO

public

1653804836146

Vlad Sitalo

This resolves yes if I notice improvement as measured by "time under load" metric on my resistance training exercises in the next 3 weeks. May 28, 11:20pm: I'm optimistic - it seems one of the few supplements with decent amount of evidence behind it and noticeable effect sizes for strength training. https://examine.co...

BINARY

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vlad

1657238842363

0

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10

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["please-resolve"]

0.7

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1657238840876

0.69

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{"NO": 104.7367290435259, "YES": 10822.383519752691}

0

are-johnny-depp-camille-vasquez-dat

20285.425852084532

Are Johnny Depp & Camille Vasquez dating?

1686023940000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

4.098187031526699

True

play

NO

public

1653807558948

GeorgeVii

The nerds are asking "Who's gonna win the trial?". While clearly the important question here is "What's the Johnny and Camille situation?". Resolves YES if, within a year, they are confirmed to be dating (i will adjudicate if the claim is credible)

BINARY

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GeorgeVii

1686023379793

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["culture-default", "sex-and-love"]

0.5

1686023379609

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0

Yr3EHavPMqRzdrasVOYE

how-was-my-hike-today

189

How was my hike today?

1653807832823

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.77443916682696

True

play

9ace561d7c02

public

1653807815744

Scott Lawrence

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1653807832823

240

ScottLawrence

1653807826234

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2

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ANYONE

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1653807826036

{"9ace561d7c02": 100}

True

bSyObgBrmJK5SkHp3Tcw

what-will-we-name-our-new-rationali

215.42973287355537

What will we name our new rationalist/EA-aligned apartment?

1655189940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.781024402878269

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653808430945

Rai

The apartment is located in Mission District.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1655823098851

880.0000000000005

agentydragon

1655823090085

0

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ANYONE

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1

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["naming-suggestions"]

1654908860544

1655823090545

True

0.17258992262377743

92hDwcc3LnhmcX9eWWpF

{"NO": 265.25251380654754, "YES": 1043.6485099500633}

0

will-russia-ban-journalists-from-un

3632.3740137923223

Will Russia ban journalists from 'unfriendly nations' by 2023?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

1.964152277052168

True

play

NO

public

1653814682666

Keepcalmandchill

Resolves Yes if Russia bans 90%+ of journalists from countries it considers 'unfriendly' from operating in the country. A bill to give Putin the power to do this has been passed by the Duma: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/russian-parliament-passes-bill-allowing-moscow-close-western-news-bureaus-2022-05-...

BINARY

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402.2719393941085

Keepcalmandchill

1672487782480

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

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["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1672487782375

False

0.05

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ZUGKxArS5Y0OpZdI94Z0

{"NO": 107.66666666666684, "YES": 187.7775371170528}

0.3129640491468637

if-boris-is-still-the-leader-of-the

51

If Boris is still the leader of the Tories, will they win a majority in the next general election?

1704153540000

MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2

cpmm-1

0

2.2498402889235325

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653820076002

Jonathan Nankivell

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Boris is leader of the Tories for the next general election and they win a majority in parliament. This market resolves to NO if Boris is leader of the Conservatives for the next general election and they don't win a ...

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JonathanNankivell

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["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 600, "YES": 3.268496584496461e-13}

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atm-atm

500

ATM, ATM?

1653821822136

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cpmm-1

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8.651849538631096

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YES

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1653821802953

Undox

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100.00000000000011

Undox

1653962379104

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1653821813100

1653962378315

0.05

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{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

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will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-f102002910f3

50

Will I resolve this question "YES"?

1653827026221

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cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1653827015690

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1653827026221

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PeterBerggren

1653827024145

0

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will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-b2094beb6444

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Will I resolve this question "YES"?

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8.069972873094368

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1653827037150

Hugh Mann

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will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-76a6e9e67348

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Will I resolve this question "YES"?

1653827067393

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8.069972873094368

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YES

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1653827055675

Law of Good Hearts

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1653827067393

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PeterBerggrenf455

1653827063144

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will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-926d71ec6cbd

50

Will I resolve this question "YES"?

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cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

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YES

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1653827079180

Say Jarva

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SayJarva

1653827086135

0

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{"NO": 91.88741199690168, "YES": 118.32549406234111}

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will-freight-prices-from-chinaeast

90

Will freight prices from China/East Asia to North America West Coast be lower next week?

1654466340000

kCA2A3LK75houndm5TXWuFQY1062

cpmm-1

0

2.6989038782070436

True

play

YES

public

1653832922468

hrdwdmrbl

Source: https://fbx.freightos.com/freight-index/FBX01

BINARY

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1701643428868

102.10765040588196

hrdwdmrbl

1701545284045

0

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["china", "economics-default", "please-resolve"]

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1654421327240

1701545283371

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{"NO": 705.3038406263494, "YES": 17.44968692817676}

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will-the-average-us-national-gas-pr

673

Will the average US national gas price be >= $4.50 on July 1, 2022?

1656140340000

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cpmm-1

0

4.160321418308961

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YES

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1653834055033

Ben

Resolves YES if the average US national gas price is $4.50 or greater on July 1, 2022. Data source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/ May 29, 7:22am: For posterity, the average gas price on 5/29 was $4.610.

BINARY

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bcongdon

1656087666179

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565151}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1656087664813

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0.9768924999093099

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{"NO": 6.004274502442399, "YES": 565.05284664838}

0

will-e-harding-get-banned-within-30

1890.2889765414932

Will E Harding get banned within 30 days.

1656475140000

5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32

cpmm-1

0

4.9985675790690305

True

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NO

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1653837671055

Sapphire Star

He is banned from every popular rat discord. May 29, 11:25am: I mean 'banned from Manifold'

BINARY

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SapphireStar

1656425146353

0

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1

0.7

1656425144930

1654750308537

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what-will-be-the-partisan-affiliati

73

What will be the partisan affiliation of the replacement councillor for Cllr Lee Garvey in the Berwick Hills and Pallister ward of Middlesbrough?

1656629940000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.870959839720454

True

play

fdb69219bdd6

public

1653839320996

Tetra

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.12, "platformFee": 1.53, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656717004243

339.99999999999994

Tetraspace

1656717032673

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

2

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ANYONE

[{"id": "940a42c91e2a", "prob": 0.3419855682090216, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.9499621891197, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.0821222480852, "textFts": "", "contractId": "705pdTvGJGMeMSAdyzLZ", "createdTime": 1653839321116, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471513}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031588947}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

1654275400896

1656717031822

{"fdb69219bdd6": 100}

True

0.4956085165132841

PyQHu1Coa7kRUOCKje2w

{"NO": 53.52085258270751, "YES": 209.13633477856933}

0

poll-would-you-resurrect-a-stranger

133

Poll: would you resurrect a stranger from the past if it's expensive?

1654487940000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

2.900991640161838

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NO

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1653839807285

Martin Randall

It's expensive. If you don't spend the time and money on resurrecting a stranger, you can instead spend it on having a biological child, or creating a clone of yourself. It's a stranger. Nobody you know, nobody famous, no distant ancestor who holds the secret to unlocking the family pirate treasure. Vote YES or NO. R...

BINARY

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MartinRandall

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i-will-resolve-this-yes-5bdcaf0024c9

60

I will resolve this YES

1653845203035

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7.985304966638935

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YES

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1653845177406

Matt P

#Inflation #YallGottaFixThis

BINARY

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1653845203035

100.79311158581079

MattP

1653845199137

0

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1653845198934

0.05

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{"NO": 769.3573466952389, "YES": 2988.5626316730413}

0.05000000000000004

if-boris-is-not-the-leader-of-the-t

2226.464141466493

If Boris is not the leader of the Tories, will they win a majority in the next general election?

1735689540000

MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2

cpmm-1

2.4394093160309484e-16

10.006139254935594

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basic

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1653847212266

Jonathan Nankivell

This market resolves to YES if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they win a majority in parliament. This market resolves to NO if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they don't win a majority in parliament. This market resolves to NA if Boris is leader...

BINARY

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0

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1000

JonathanNankivell

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24

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0.09626280706542877

0.5

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0.49780910144431345

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{"NO": 65.59860439844209, "YES": 159.81736115996594}

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will-mo-salah-leave-liverpool-in-20

60

Will mo Salah leave Liverpool in 2022/23

1656457140000

s0r9dKIVGBNzRfLnybxDonWKhYx2

cpmm-1

0

2.8278301463900615

True

play

NO

public

1653847473506

Lawrence Chee

BINARY

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101.09583304020445

LawrenceChee

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0

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1702271010232

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{"NO": 145.20544378536124, "YES": 1.524785163438196}

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will-i-write-a-new-blog-post-today

241

Will I write a new blog post today?

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igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

7.719249058549389

True

play

YES

public

1653850472294

Austin

I'm supposed to, or else Beeminder charges me $90. Tentative topic ideas: - "Manifold funding, a history" - "Markets and bounties allow trades through time" - "equity vs money vs time" Close date updated to 2022-05-29 11:59 pm

BINARY

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0

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102.65696071594805

Austin

1653924073441

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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0

1

0.05

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{"NO": 26.46195552932295, "YES": 382.26360889972665}

0

will-manifold-allow-us-to-set-a-sep

286

Will Manifold allow us to set a separate resolve date by June 30?

1656647940000

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cpmm-1

0

3.5938740414986388

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NO

public

1653852146747

Enopoletus Harding

This market resolves to Yes if Manifold allows us to set an estimated resolve date separate from the close date by June 30, no otherwise.

BINARY

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0

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100.27149321266968

EnopoletusHarding

1656642096565

0

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0

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0.4424846694323624

will-my-siblings-agree-to-attend-ev

104.28972839240268

Will my siblings agree to attend 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the cinema

1656453540000

2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2

cpmm-1

0

2.712639285706861

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653857060263

Arie Arie

I've asked them, but they seem undecided. They told me they have no time atleast till Pentacost. Resolves Yes if we do go see the film within the timeframe in question. I will edit this description in response to any question asked as long as i judge them not to reveal too much relevant information.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1694298155403

101.71404226789838

ArieArie

1694298158527

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c

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0

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10

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{"NO": 54.578403415135945, "YES": 194.19698127953342}

0

will-a-hotline-for-refugees-in-germ

99

Will a hotline for refugees in Germany win an SBPF grant (details in description)?

1656543600000

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cpmm-1

0

2.9221400167633624

True

play

NO

public

1653857137103

Martin

Pavel Sagulenko and Mischa Paschenko have created a multi language hotline for refugees from Ukraine which forwards their issues to the relevant charities. Will this Project win an SOS Brigade's Past Fund (probably $1k) by @Austin? SOS Brigade's Past Fund: https://blog.austn.io/posts/announcing-the-sos-brigades-past-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1656573872076

101.24139404101699

MM

1656395352103

0

https://firebasestorage.…954-afece3a745c0

4

0

1

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["world-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 550.8170749586368, "YES": 78.4185552566548}

1

will-anna-eshoo-be-reelected-to-the

786.8649382420825

Will Anna Eshoo be reelected to the House of Representatives?

1668137914904

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

4.195311796083197

True

play

YES

public

1653860383314

Conflux

Pretty straightforward - this question resolves to YES if Anna Eshoo is reelected to the House of Representatives in 2022, and NO if she loses or does not run.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1668137914904

120.63418426350493

Conflux

1668137929410

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

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1668055083484

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0.9643191700156909

0.5

wohw0jwkM9EYHqp7shiO

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-elizabeth-kim-win-the-democrat

0

Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district?

1653864293160

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653864240726

Matthew Barnett

This question will resolve positively if Elizabeth Kim is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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0

1653864293160

100

MatthewBarnett

1653864240726

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

0

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["politics-default"]

0.5

0.4920040008911935

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{"NO": 11.964864421860455, "YES": 978.1514287220641}

0

will-elizabeth-kim-win-the-democrat-1cf94c04b873

880

Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district?

1658538480909

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

0

4.7367199459249685

True

play

NO

public

1653864336969

Matthew Barnett

This question will resolve to YES if Elizabeth Kim is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.7334902212274983, "platformFee": 0.37698378865833493, "liquidityFee": 2.261902731950009}

0

1658538480909

102.26190273195002

MatthewBarnett

1658502603915

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

6

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475328}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

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0.011708335622970058

0.75

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.75

is-the-rai-stablecoin-just-an-ethba

0

Is the RAI stablecoin just an ETH-based perp swap targeting USD?

1654498740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.6967849629863747

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653867112896

Austin

More on perp swaps: https://medium.com/derivadex/what-are-perpetual-swaps-130236587df2 More on RAI by Vitalik: https://vitalik.ca/general/2022/05/25/stable.html For eg. a SOL perp swap, you put down USD as collateral, and get a contract tracking the value of SOL. Then the redemption rate mechanism keeps the contract v...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654902938524

100

Austin

1654902956876

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

1

0.75

1654902953484

0.75

0.2613298631169008

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{"NO": 93.83617164496418, "YES": 159.18745368074556}

0

given-an-outcome-of-5000-or-greater

233.2767446310419

Given an outcome of $5000 or greater on the range charity market, will I conclude that the majority of the donations were made by members of the Manifold Markets team?

1654084495210

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

3.435970920097219

True

play

NO

public

1653869107605

Stephen Malina

As someone who's increasingly likely to get blown out on the Manifold charity market (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/total-donations-for-manifold-for-go), I feel like given the current amount donated stands at $798 and the highest earning member of the leaderboard's lifetime profits are $36k (https://manifold...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.9655112621320723, "platformFee": 0.6609185436886786, "liquidityFee": 3.9655112621320723}

0

1654084495210

103.96551126213207

StephenMalina

1654064810359

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

5

0

[{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1665931643244}]

["manifold-for-charity"]

0.25

1654064810198

1654052137822

0.17255879144237327

0.5030203678157178

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{"NO": 129.275216678657, "YES": 95.07341934425887}

0.6

what-will-the-sum-of-mattps-2d6-rol

231.2527214987122

What will the sum of @MattP's 2d6 roll be? [2, 12]

1653975694371

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.5852673285156964

True

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MKT

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1653869191180

Austin

The correct way to implement https://manifold.markets/MattP/what-will-the-sum-of-my-roll-of-two, IMO. Resolves to 0% if 0, 100% if 12, or the linear value in between. Expected value is 50%, of course, but don't let that stop you from gambling! May 29, 5:10pm: Er I'm dumb, should be 0% if 2.

BINARY

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1653975694371

105.3800463390277

Austin

1653972741872

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

6

0

0.5

1653972653215

1653972737395

0.6

0.20369952733866883

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{"NO": 50.77749500794995, "YES": 1127.2465054776108}

0

will-vladimir-zelenskyy-meet-with-v

2841.0668944007766

Will Vladimir Zelenskyy meet with Vladimir Putin by the end of June?

1656475140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

5.449665748746292

True

play

NO

public

1653871734048

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace terms whether in person or via Zoom. Negotiations vis a vis intermediaries do not count.

BINARY

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1656533215716

144.55695861112872

BTE

1656446319272

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

28

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495923}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226866}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1656446317900

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{"NO": 1352.1543810751457, "YES": 9.70467795849812}

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will-joel-becker-donate-m500-or-mor

1420.991622444743

Will Joel Becker donate M$500 or more to a MM charity before market closes

1654050667750

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cpmm-1

0

5.214877415425673

True

play

YES

public

1653871907520

Undox

Will [https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker] total donations here https://manifold.markets/charity be >$500

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1654050667750

102.3021888789496

Undox

1654947075256

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1654012401769

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{"NO": 18275.111791636777, "YES": 101.35046659967884}

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will-trump-be-charged-by-the-grand

558621.2734178517

Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?

1692068658631

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0.26656991337810726

1.4135766671225385

True

basic

YES

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1653872276846

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump is charged with a felony by the grand jury.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 3, 5:41pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Trump be charged by the grand jury in Georgia for his attempts to o...

BINARY

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0

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1692068658631

2599.7810125989035

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1692118672962

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

3

234

0

139

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["us-politics", "law-order", "magaland", "trial-of-the-century", "georgia"]

0.38046226239815917

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1692068486342

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when-and-how-will-lenovo-repair-a-t

39

When (and how) will Lenovo repair a ThinkPad P53 with an on-site warranty?

1657340323831

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.92144494010232

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play

5d96cc318e64

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1653877206397

Zian Choy

Timeline: - Long time ago: Bought a ThinkPad P53 - Eventually: Warranty expires - This year: motherboard fails - Last week: Lenovo offers 2 options: 1. Pay for a new motherboard (~$100). Mail the laptop to a depot and wait ~2 weeks. 2. Pay to reinstate the warranty (~$100 for a one year onsite warranty). Wait 30 days a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1657340323831

400

ZianChoy

1657199380652

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ANYONE

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["technology-default"]

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{"NO": 140.29709864366598, "YES": 77.04128273616297}

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poll-would-you-vote-to-resurrect-pe

77.40219398577449

Poll: Would you vote to resurrect people from the past if it's expensive and funded by tax dollars?

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cpmm-1

0

2.74092820876123

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Jack

Suppose it's expensive. If society doesn't spend the money on resurrecting people, it could (in theory) be spent on any number of other things. The people are normal people. Maybe it includes a few famous people or distant ancestors, but assume the proposal is to resurrect a large number of generally normal people, no...

BINARY

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jack

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["politics-default", "technology-default"]

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1654448204122

1654525532842

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0.6036908500799972

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{"NO": 886.881762112971, "YES": 9.233421202255485}

1

i-will-find-a-dentist-and-make-an-a

921

I will find a dentist and make an appointment

1654402834023

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cpmm-1

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6.411142639112901

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YES

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1653879325898

Jack2

I need to find a new dentist and make an appointment. Resolves YES if I do so within the week. #Personal #Commitments

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will-middleclicking-on-the-create-a

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Will middle-clicking on the "create a question" button work by the end of June?

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1653880472290

Isaac King

By default, middle-clicking on a link opens that link in a new tab. This works correctly for most links on Manifold, but does not work for the "create a question" button in the sidebar on the left. This market resolves to yes if it is working at the time I check it soon after this market closes. Resolves to no otherwis...

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test-manifold-market-resolution

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TEST manifold: market resolution

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1653883674002

Sjlver

This is a test of manifold's API; please ignore

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Will Joel pay back $50 to Robin by next week?

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CANCEL

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1653884219261

Sherwin Philip

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will-mark-meadows-be-charged-with-v

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Will Mark Meadows be charged with voter fraud in North Carolina?

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1653886627894

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Meadows is charged for illegally voting in the 2020 election.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-09-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-steve-bannon-be-convicted-of-c

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Will Steve Bannon be convicted of Contempt of Congress?

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cpmm-1

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YES

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1653886856976

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if Bannon is convicted in his trial set to begin in July 18, 2022.

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will-manifold-add-a-way-to-track-yo

25

Will Manifold add a way to track your outstanding liquidity subsidies and earned fees?

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YES

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1653888617629

Brian T. Edwards

This resolves to YES if it happens.

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will-resolve-not-false

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will resolve NOT FALSE

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1653895105026

Electricitypipe

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Electricitypipe

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will-gustavo-petro-win-the-colombia

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Will Gustavo Petro win the Colombian presidential election?

1656511140000

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cpmm-1

0

4.843877240261743

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play

YES

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1653902462850

Keepcalmandchill

Petro is facing Rodolfo Hernández in the second round of the 2022 presidential election on 19 June and he is also a former leftist guerrilla: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustavo_Petro

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Keepcalmandchill

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will-apple-show-off-its-arvr-headse-f3fcf7f164e3

1000

Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset before March 2022?

1653908083882

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

cpmm-1

0

5.071977266241889

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NO

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1653902521559

Magnus Hambleton

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Mag

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planecrashrot13-qvq-xrygunz-vzcerta

1361.9656471022101

[Planecrash][rot13] Qvq xrygunz vzcertangr gur dhrra orsber qnl avargl?

1656878106699

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cpmm-1

0

4.53706366549662

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YES

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1653904866918

Sonata Green

Will it be revealed that Keltham impregnated Queen Abrogail Thrune II before day 90? May 30, 8:38am: - "Before day 90" refers to the impregnation, not the reveal. - "Impregnated" includes indirect/low-agency methods that result in her getting pregnant using his genetic material. - If they had sex before day 90 but ...

BINARY

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1656878106699

113.40532080560267

SonataGreen

1656877596262

0

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0

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["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.2

1656877595009

0.8480450405587567

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why-is-my-lipid-metabolism-messed-u

617.9248295479366

Why is my lipid metabolism messed up?

1662015540000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.686014365928453

True

play

MKT

public

1653905006349

Rai

I will resolve according to subjective probabilities at time of close, determined by whatever tests or information I be have at that time. No catch-alls, like "you are unwell". Har har. On my last blood test, I had pretty bad lipid levels. I am obese (BMI 35) and they aren't the healthiest anyway, but they shot up ver...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.13897969614301472, "platformFee": 0.03474492403575368, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662020064172

520

agentydragon

1655924415737

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

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8

1655924415589

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{"7f574b132986": 12, "8e1f6c2b22a0": 80, "d3c922234032": 8}

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0.46406187456247433

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{"NO": 87.85652226471187, "YES": 180.90561477983687}

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will-i-sign-up-for-cryonics-in-2022

175.38845432974765

Will I sign up for cryonics in 2022?

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cpmm-1

0

2.4587264790549668

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NO

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1653907990150

Rai

I've had cryonics mildly on the back of my mind maybe 6 years now. Just moved to Bay Area, where it might be easier to get Alcor membership or such, and good-enough life insurance would be cheap to get. Would just need to get all the paperwork properly arranged.

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1672588818227

122.21367730355932

agentydragon

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1667258396009

1653910751863

0.3

Ur9mCzEcDv1zdTwAgdSi

which-personal-knowledge-management

62.09804300696541

Which personal knowledge management tool will I be using at end of 2022?

1672559940000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.931403451724811

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play

MKT

public

1653908152745

Rai

I've last switched to Trilium Notes ~August 2021. I've previously used Roam (didn't like how hard it was to interface with and that it didn't have support for database-like functions), Athens (was bit impractical that they didn't have sync worked out yet), Zim a long time back.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1672588800431

460

agentydragon

1658768020358

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

8

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ANYONE

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9

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449586}, {"name": "TFT", "slug": "tft", "userId": "Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2", "groupId": "iZZuk7X6qSrNGSoGJ2is", "createdTime": 1675715410651}]

["technology-default", "tft"]

1658768019141

1657727483168

{"0bec03c3b2b1": 5, "2822d36df88f": 95}

True