CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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will-i-buy-new-shoes

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Will I buy new shoes?

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cpmm-1

0

2.763275911535768

True

play

NO

public

1653908711262

Rai

My sneakers and sandals are both getting quite worn, and not fun to walk in. I should buy new shoes, but lazy. Will I buy at least one new pair of shoes in the next 2 weeks? May 30, 9:53am: Point against: this has been on my TODO list for at least the last 3 months, and I haven't done it yet. Point for: I have created...

BINARY

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agentydragon

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{"NO": 119.098977558985, "YES": 88.62217172780919}

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will-i-have-have-trouble-sleeping-d

50

Will I have have trouble sleeping due to noise in our new apartment?

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cpmm-1

0

2.730297831458304

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YES

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1653909178162

Rai

Resolves YES if this happens at least once before market close. Apartment is next to a few potential sources of noise. May 31, 8:39am: after day 1, there was bit of bass from music, but it didn't keep me from falling asleep. (was more of a problem with cold because didn't buy blanket yet. resolving soon.) May 31, 8:3...

BINARY

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101.35716683753745

agentydragon

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{"NO": 101.7170627998603, "YES": 615.9173847656842}

0

will-confirmed-monkeypox-cases-reac

1175.532857567042

Will confirmed Monkeypox cases reach gender parity by 2023?

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cpmm-1

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NO

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1653911336062

Gigacasting

(Median reported value in the 40-60% range at year-end will resolve as yes)

BINARY

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Gigacasting

1671049115481

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["monkeypox", "world-default", "medicine"]

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{"NO": 130.51032689136412, "YES": 82.35189519610091}

0.6135739564597992

should-mm-start-a-leaderboard-showi

76

Should MM start a leader-board showing who has made the most betting on markets that they themselves have created?

1656801753899

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

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MKT

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1653911683945

Duncn

May 30, 7:55am: Wall-of-shame or new Goodherting target, good thing or bad?

BINARY

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Duncn

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will-the-rotten-tomatoes-audience-s

226.8276026237193

Will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score for Better Call Saul S6 be >=95% after the series finale?

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cpmm-1

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2.8094533357699456

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YES

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1653918555876

Ben

Data source: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/better_call_saul/s06 The finale runs on Aug 15. This market will resolve with the score as measured on Aug 22.

BINARY

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bcongdon

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[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545685}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860919452}]

["culture-default", "media-rating-futures"]

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{"NO": 102.84801294366302, "YES": 1414.9950051890007}

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will-apple-announce-an-apple-watch

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Will Apple announce an Apple Watch capable of blood glucose measurement in 2022?

1672550212509

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cpmm-1

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4.959511437315912

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NO

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1653925051625

Kronopath

Rumours abound about Apple releasing an Apple Watch that contains blood glucose measurement as a core feature, such as https://www.macrumors.com/2021/10/25/apple-watch-series-8-blood-glucose-sensors/. This question resolves to “YES” if Apple officially announces, via press release, press conference, or other method, ...

BINARY

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Kronopath

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454235}]

["technology-default"]

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1671382854535

1662930554610

0.01

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{"NO": 102.31898131375188, "YES": 103.44594465009891}

0.49999999999999994

will-manifold-add-native-support-fo

1258.6759499052932

Will Manifold add native support for polls by 2022-08-30

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cpmm-1

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MKT

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1653925926544

Martin Randall

Resolves YES if Manifold adds native support for betting on the result of informal internet polls hosted on Manifold. Resolves 50% if Manifold supports embedding polls from, eg, Twitter. Resolves NO if no additional support by market close.

BINARY

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MartinRandall

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661866678594}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

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{"NO": 49.07972104961612, "YES": 204.23291120146362}

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will-manifold-use-sales-values-inst

202.07659608016934

Will Manifold use sales values instead of market values in the portfolio by July 13?

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cpmm-1

0

3.019151055077262

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NO

public

1653926746746

Enopoletus Harding

This question resolves to Yes if Manifold uses sales values (logical) instead of "market values" (nobody knows what this means) in the portfolio tab by July 13. It resolves to No if it does not.

BINARY

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EnopoletusHarding

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[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

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which-features-will-we-implement-fo

2723.562001638037

Which features will we implement for the new EA/rationalish apartment?

1656572340000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.633626280834581

True

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MKT

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1653927987802

Rai

Features broadly construed - can include useful pieces of furniture, organization systems, fun things to have in a group house, etc. Only things that aren't in ~every co-living arrangement qualify. "Beds" and "chairs" don't. Resolves to every answer that we have decided to implement by market close time. Partial cred...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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agentydragon

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ANYONE

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True

aBohYNw2OoeNIFRcteby

which-measures-will-be-taken-to-get

1105.927329419341

Which measures will be taken to get my lipid metabolism in better shape?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.657088027218322

True

basic

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public

1653929188845

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/why-is-my-lipid-metabolism-messed-u Resolves to the measures me and doctors are taking or firmly planning to take soon at time of market close. Resolves to N/A if the bad lipid panel was a fluke. Measures ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1659204600678

1079.9999999999998

agentydragon

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0

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ANYONE

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True

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{"NO": 420.1516856363726, "YES": 383.5049102352733}

0.5228281884229614

if-i-lower-my-dose-of-fluoxetine-or

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If I lower my dose of Fluoxetine or switch to another SSRI, will my lipid metabolism get better?

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zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

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0.8904294897811755

True

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CANCEL

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1653929571093

Rai

See also: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/why-is-my-lipid-metabolism-messed-u, https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/which-measures-will-be-taken-to-get. Resolves N/A if I remain on same dosage of Fluoxetine.

BINARY

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agentydragon

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1662019916219

0.5228281884229614

pu5Shxbk6zv067hFW7Mh

how-many-games-will-the-2022-nba-fi

1609.2287402093525

How many games will the 2022 NBA Finals have?

1655416800000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649084914474962

True

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1653929707353

Richard

Related: https://manifold.markets/Mvem/will-the-nba-finals-go-to-a-game-7

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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Richard

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408105}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779942780}]

["sports-default", "please-resolve"]

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True

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{"NO": 37.755429314658315, "YES": 301.45271177826965}

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will-manifold-implement-notificatio

220

Will Manifold implement notification emails sent to bettors when the creator of a market adds to its description?

1656572340000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

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NO

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1653929750632

Rai

BINARY

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agentydragon

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{"NO": 1100.9906034513212, "YES": -3.5349501104064984e-13}

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will-i-resolve-this-market-to-yes

1001

Will I resolve this market to yes?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

True

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YES

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1653931034063

Isaac King

BINARY

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IsaacKing

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which-country-will-win-the-uefa-nat

3245.337662575971

Which country will win the UEFA Nations League Group A3?

1664596740000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.635511390509677

True

play

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public

1653932471987

Joel Becker

Groups here: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/draws/

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1667932586511

440

JoelBecker

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1664628883973}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396464}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffw...

["sports-default", "please-resolve", "uefa"]

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True

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{"NO": 903.4037068055761, "YES": 1174.924336011808}

0.03490337318087419

will-donald-trump-win-a-nobel-prize

748.4495763531694

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

1893456000000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1653935520191

John Roxton

This question resolves YES if former US President Donald Trump is awarded any of the six prizes listed on https://www.nobelprize.org/ (Peace, Literature, Chemistry, Physics, Medicine or Econonic Sciences) before 1st Jan 2030, regardless of whether he accepts the award.

BINARY

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1000

JohnRoxton

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[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438782}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504844}, {"name": "Nobel Prizes", "slug": "academic-awards", "groupId": "gF0c1fO8ozQYyctfQ5cT", "createdT...

["academic-awards", "politics-default", "magaland", "donald-trump"]

0.75

1719256501257

False

586j71ZDoLNiBV8RgChp

which-stock-will-have-the-best-perf

1092.2696085883122

Which stock will have the best performance in the week of trading that ends June 3rd, 2022, NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN or GOOG?

1654287586693

Hk1dU5ciKPd4ZxId90xCuOVxY5H3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.677544803429972

True

play

1678ee7c267e

public

1653936413088

Sam Beriault

I will choose according to which of the five companies NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN or GOOG has the best percentage performance for the week of trading ending June 3rd, 2022.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1654287586693

500

SamBeriault

1654286389448

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxXpCJw7VM86goL75PbgQg5TKou6gTGo93Pi6MC=s96-c

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "205ce6c08c85", "prob": 0.016617985934246873, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.23042795933260235, "userId": "Hk1dU5ciKPd4ZxId90xCuOVxY5H3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.635750544148323, "textFts": "", "contractId": "586j71ZDoLNiBV8RgChp", "createdTime": 1653936413158, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564657}]

["economics-default"]

1654286388047

1654269014987

{"1678ee7c267e": 100}

True

0.4989113274242911

zKBB5KaqONWnB97OKQkG

{"NO": 807.8012160115966, "YES": 1700.9938518326999}

1

do-you

1806.9012369841796

Do you?

1654345661871

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-1

0

0.34793186611982685

True

basic

YES

public

1653938348812

David Chee

:)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1654345661871

1135.6269977928332

SirSalty

1654345815460

0

https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

25

0

0.5

1654345635473

1654345813558

0.7241952036755517

8NmJQN2yTm1NXI8WOwHH

what-treatmentactive-ingredient-wil

304

What treatment/active ingredient will positively impact my skincare the most?

1672531140000

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.731666693960247

True

play

132616491e56

public

1653940078943

David Chee

I double cleanse my face and moisturise daily for the past few months but it hasn't really helped with acne/hyper-pigmentation. Seems to be genetic as my siblings have also had issues with skincare in late teens - early 20's. I've never really tried anything to fix it since I didn't care too much and hoped it would get...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672608302933

520

SirSalty

1656993135273

0

https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f39e6b224bd0", "prob": 0.06126850308793256, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.2522043171522519, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.185773665679942, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8NmJQN2yTm1NXI8WOwHH", "createdTime": 1653940079159, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

11

1656993134008

1654867355920

{"132616491e56": 100}

True

0.49957719008575185

oGC9Qi4xHIHOzkWYuebb

{"NO": 84.38691159689745, "YES": 124.23503488966614}

0.4040894902224172

will-i-know-the-truth-by-the-end-of

88

Will I know the truth by the end of this year?

1656510582924

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

2.744612300155892

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653940761307

1

This is, I suppose, a market on my soul. I've told a number of partial truths about wrongs which I have done because I thought it would benefit myself. The result has been bad: I now find experientially relatable many of the wicked characters in Dostoyevsky (disclaimer: I've only read C&P in 9th grade, and some short s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656510582924

117.36365015391281

1

1655008332164

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

8

0

0.5

1655008328701

1653943631060

0.4040894902224172

0.33211235776152775

A84O7piUVAJWo3BZPwnG

{"NO": 1254.470896655267, "YES": 3283.3820262696877}

0.15965373278427566

will-elon-musk-spend-any-time-on-ma

17797.71846857152

Will Elon Musk spend any time on Mars before he dies?

3156296340000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

8.612986698863306

False

basic

public

1653942209725

Duncn

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.009653732784275143}

0

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0

1737.5929694771648

Duncn

1718409700468

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

5

112

0

59

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684"}]

["space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "mars"]

0.5

1718409697370

1715445009190

False

F1NN303vdQqfafbhPtBE

what-commonly-available-bourbons-wi

112

What commonly available bourbon(s) will I consider my favorite(s) by the end of the summer?

1662350340000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.826429610508466

True

play

ea1767c3b44a

public

1653942470024

David Glidden

I’m trying to refine my whiskey palate. A family member helped me do a blind taste test and identified that I prefer straight bourbon whiskeys, so this summer I’m on a mission to find a favorite that I can order more regularly. A few of my favorites so far: Maker’s Mark and Elijah Craig Small Batch, as well as less c...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662394927242

300

dglid

1656644080875

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a20a4d5a08f1", "prob": 0.22249911000355999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.663645022563585, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 58.22944116684617, "textFts": "", "contractId": "F1NN303vdQqfafbhPtBE", "createdTime": 1653942470104, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

4

1653963432558

1656644078438

{"ea1767c3b44a": 100}

True

0.5355744032611676

YFwXnVeXlNmaswjBd3Ji

{"NO": 416.89953709664894, "YES": 8.3908362306124}

1

will-manifold-arbitrage-be-automate

1433

Will Manifold arbitrage be automated by July?

1656495837827

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

5.910622424440845

True

play

YES

public

1653942787815

Scott Lawrence

There are lots of arbitrage opportunities on Manifold---duplicate markets (like https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-officially-declare-war and https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-fae0c436ac66), or just closely related markets, or markets on manifold that match markets on metaculus, a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1656495837827

111.22173806756285

ScottLawrence

1656415433714

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

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0

0.25

1656361907387

1656415427894

0.9828463790501355

0.7058525815208296

UILtVZ5JeeVrxs1cFAxK

{"NO": 0.9967320574699847, "YES": 641.4749659508864}

0

will-apple-announce-realityos-durin

840.452381977579

Will Apple announce realityOS during WWDC 2022 Keynote?

1654541340182

VCYL12sFi6Z5GwfanpnJpMQh5Hh1

cpmm-1

0

6.244541398179051

True

play

NO

public

1653951410417

Kevin Kwok

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8780819493998258, "platformFee": 0.479680324899971, "liquidityFee": 2.8780819493998258}

0

1654541340182

102.87808194939981

KevinKwok

1654541303444

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg4cY99Fxf0oxu1kicSsdm-_4vFdzWJoAvKnjZIyq0=s96-c

6

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449386}]

["technology-default"]

0.75

1654541302141

0.019747492693048464

0.1762147109290845

zQUI3f6nLTMs5yYnAxoe

{"NO": 174.24618298469048, "YES": 273.3334789194113}

0.12000000000000006

will-the-us-nuclear-regulatory-comm

423.77248027212676

Will the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission receive and approve any new nuclear (fission) reactors using novel designs by the end of 2023?

1684810046176

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

2.952360384057802

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653951475428

Stephen Malina

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission recently rejected Oklo's bid (https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/14/oklo-reactor-nuclear-regulatory-commission/) for new nuclear reactor using a novel design. Allegedly (https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/americas-misguided-nuclear-policy-threatens-tech-advantage-climate-goa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1684810046176

200.72418497559454

StephenMalina

1684810029027

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

14

0

8

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529456678}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-...

["technology-default", "nuclear-risk", "nuclear-power", "nuclear"]

0.08

1684199363392

1684810026725

False

0.12

0.4995510700917015

TXkNSi36eAJ4G6LDeYwW

{"NO": 82.15674451643994, "YES": 124.89359804523593}

0

will-hillary-clintons-lawyer-michae

25

Will Hillary Clinton's lawyer Michael Sussmann be convicted of lying to the FBI?

1654018083192

z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2

cpmm-1

0

2.769183558840506

True

play

NO

public

1653953859488

TANSTAAFL

Jury deliberations are in progress. https://nypost.com/2022/05/30/jury-deliberations-to-resume-in-michael-sussmann-trial/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1654018083192

100.63841172858427

TANSTAAFL

1654018072855

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c

3

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488211}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1654014436333

1654018068299

0.3963662605572065

0.3059056984778583

D6SSicgrOnAQeeSRJI7H

{"NO": 53.54256307395, "YES": 530.5681322164018}

0

will-the-total-crypto-market-cap-be

1003.4597638962027

Will the total crypto market cap be greater than $1.5T before August according to CoinGecko?

1659337140000

Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2

cpmm-1

0

3.6926490344376273

True

play

NO

public

1653954296844

RoboTeddy

If there's a substantial bug in CoinGecko which causes it to suddenly show a very different total market cap for a while, the buggy prices will be ignored.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.757593981302628, "platformFee": 0.6789469301090065, "liquidityFee": 4.073681580654039}

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1659338865506

104.07368158065405

TedSuzman

1658975832627

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c

5

0

1

0.3

1658975832482

1658973763741

0.042582245637663725

0.47437586555187033

wn4CqebeXJMguD95Gzci

{"NO": 23.965577495103766, "YES": 715.7131792785117}

0

will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-e6dc906d6159

1105

Will Joe Biden's approval rating be at least 41% on June 6?

1654585140000

z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2

cpmm-1

0

3.713125965821623

True

play

NO

public

1653955058272

TANSTAAFL

According to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ at market close.

BINARY

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0

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0

1654612950869

110.40319553206778

TANSTAAFL

1654569623699

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c

16

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511992}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1654569623492

0.029333652636858498

0.49996552444089654

eKHniPERw0YrMnOXZepR

{"NO": 581.6879930431307, "YES": 17.481760608641366}

1

30yr-mortgage-rates-above-6-in-2022

574.4282207673834

30yr mortgage rates above 6% in 2022?

1655916596896

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

4.127284898342737

True

play

YES

public

1653957131148

Gigacasting

Resolved based on https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate crossing 6%

BINARY

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0

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1655916596896

100.4266485297748

Gigacasting

1655916625558

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

5

0

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["economics-default", "housing-markets"]

0.5

1655916592086

1655916623225

0.8034173009524885

0.06693729108720876

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{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

1

that-aint-working-thats-the-way-you

100

That ain't working, that's the way you do it...

1653958998827

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

8.125090873627006

True

play

YES

public

1653958987053

Undox

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969}

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1653958998827

100.00010871690215

Undox

1653962386083

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

1

0

0.05

1653958994503

1653962385472

0.05

0.2503289358611695

kTEM2ZDOe0ysxZGdks8A

{"NO": 65.02105424765239, "YES": 396.7163048187024}

0

will-there-be-a-new-hello-internet

566.8098958622766

Will there be a new Hello Internet episode in 2022?

1672551369599

HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2

cpmm-1

0

4.020414134489275

True

play

NO

public

1653960582793

Mvem

Hello Internet is a podcast that has not posted an episode since February, 2020. The only word on the state of the podcast has come from one of the hosts who referred to the hiatus as a "break" (https://www.bradyharanblog.com/hello-internet). However, there has been no indication that there are any plans to resume the ...

BINARY

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0

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1672551369599

101.12585528498295

Mvem

1672493624434

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7c-9f71f6bf4d66

17

0

16

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546871}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104575878}]

["culture-default", "internet"]

0.25

1672493624261

1654008940126

0.05

0.749989816798365

L6JEPLew8pw1VFHvHGUq

{"NO": 456.30053953619176, "YES": 92.18804121097531}

1

will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l

786.1255952622241

Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least 4 novels during 2023

1704095940000

kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1

cpmm-1

0

3.0720673142671133

True

play

YES

public

1653960664654

Alex Rockwell

To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023.

BINARY

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164.13257213845597

AlexRockwell

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0

https://firebasestorage.…df9-4e148250b2c7

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23

0

1

23

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancie...

["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "ancient-markets", "cosmere"]

0.5

1693890059855

1704152867948

0.94

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.05737974089027394

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{"NO": 405.5025892904119, "YES": 2.326021200403379}

1

test-market-profit-liquidity-inject

106

Test market (profit & liquidity injection)

1653961665422

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cpmm-1

0

6.945655972443212

True

play

YES

public

1653961562978

Matt P

Testing out if a non-free market (aka I'm providing all of the liquidity) with liquidity injected will count the liquidity I inject as profit, even though I'm not actually making any money overall.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.984464257527415, "platformFee": 0.49741070958790246, "liquidityFee": 2.984464257527415}

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1653961665422

302.98446425752735

MattP

1653961639221

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

0

0.05

1653961639067

0.05

0.06017795223300633

exzKVxShLjBx7JHWyCKi

{"NO": 429.49193748254334, "YES": 1.0203933849321511}

1

test-market-profit-liquidity-inject-7a6900553b2e

130

test market (profit & liquidity injection, this time not a free market)

1653962072605

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

6.888640817411994

True

play

YES

public

1653962035578

Matt P

Let's try this again, with me *actually* providing all of the liquidity this time around.

BINARY

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MattP

1653962069068

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1653962065206

0.05

0.06693729108720876

5Fm128kq8XLBILLMM0p3

{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

1

will-resolve-12

100

will resolve 1!=2

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cpmm-1

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YES

public

1653964794643

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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Electricitypipe

1653964802178

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1653964801960

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{"NO": 221.78712916469655, "YES": 13.564487905610896}

1

will-this-scientific-paper-on-how-t

270.6849715979134

Will this scientific paper on how to treat monkeypox reach 100 citations by the end of 2022?

1660316233442

RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3

cpmm-1

0

4.2783092319412415

True

play

YES

public

1653966436533

Research.Bet

A new scientific article outlining management strategies of monkeypox was recently published in the journal Lancet Infectious Disease. Will this article gain international, scientific recognition? Clinical features and management of human monkeypox: a retrospective observational study in the UK. https://pubmed.ncbi....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1660316233442

101.92109127329144

ResearchBet

1659989899210

0

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0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530124}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658529556098}]

["monkeypox", "science-default"]

0.25

1659672237836

1659989892989

0.8663053738524727

0.08100703523818

SLgi0ZPUCU870ke79t3G

{"NO": 520.2396618221968, "YES": 913.9885931674656}

0

will-solana-reach-a-new-ath-by-eoy

3213.3970532100184

Will Solana reach a new ATH by EOY.

1672549140000

5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32

cpmm-1

0

2.2833649597945653

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play

NO

public

1653966514849

Sapphire Star

Will resolve according to Coingecko (if possible). PRevious ATH was 259.96$.

BINARY

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0

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1672555334279

544.8481110754285

SapphireStar

1672483587147

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c

21

0

1

21

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441970}]

["crypto-prices"]

0.15

1672483587016

1655960035135

0.05

le9wL1ITGeKfDZgyxhul

who-will-i-date

13604.447071333962

Who will I date?

1685509140000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6216830358199825

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basic

ab1818560983

public

1653970768965

Aella

If I go on four or more dates with a submitted name at any point within the next year, I will resolve 'yes' to that name. If I go on four or more dates with more than two names, then I'm still only resolving yes to the first name. If I don't go on four or more dates with any submitted name, will resolve n/a or whatever...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1685551476991

3220

Aella

1685498495803

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

105

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a92b0b55a4f2", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004700445550876375, "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.3455223298873107, "textFts": "", "contractId": "le9wL1ITGeKfDZgyxhul", "createdTime": 1653970769020, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...

1

83

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664925924558}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822550}]

["dating", "sex-and-love"]

1685498495657

1676348728115

{"ab1818560983": 100}

True

0.5024986116677805

7iOrqdwZQcBrCjRkYtQW

{"NO": 13.632599295366958, "YES": 800.8896714218675}

0

will-manifold-add-a-poll-poll-outco

999.1289607091622

Will Manifold add a Poll + Poll Outcome Prediction combo question type?

1656613740000

nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2

cpmm-1

0

4.456426138540138

True

play

NO

public

1653972170148

Akhil Wable

People are already doing this by asking for YES/NO comments, while the market itself is about the outcome of the POLL. When folks start overloading and using features a certain way, that usually means it's something the product organism evolves into. It's also a way to partially decouple true beliefs from participatin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.511137090582347, "platformFee": 0.46329354601489425, "liquidityFee": 2.7797612760893653}

0

1656640000577

102.77976127608936

akhil

1656611728306

0

https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

7

0

1

0.5

1656611727045

1655787485402

0.016902201294928056

0.2561627466947134

0U93YIjUZ9dzVUsXDOEJ

{"NO": 79.47169810292563, "YES": 234.9483173489486}

0

will-manifold-send-more-than-one-re

253.59839146717223

Will Manifold send more than one reminder email to resolve markets by July?

1656658740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.656805831835368

True

play

NO

public

1653973961643

Jack

Resolves YES if by the end of June, market creators are sent more than one email by the system to remind them to resolve their markets. Seems like a small, simple way to help people avoid forgetting their markets. It doesn't always make sense because some markets have a different "close" date vs "resolution known" dat...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.530684623694288, "platformFee": 0.4154786879630209, "liquidityFee": 2.4928721277781256}

0

1656805641845

102.49287212777811

jack

1661951970944

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

2

0

1

0.25

1656538810931

1661951968764

0.10433366229687065

0.5089760531568638

Zbbmc3fEJYU9AB7Diyx3

{"NO": 339.5823183406472, "YES": 33.7875267576825}

0

will-my-flight-from-jfk-to-sfo-arri

240

Will my flight from JFK to SFO arrive on time?

1654055940000

CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2

cpmm-1

0

3.309749116930459

True

play

NO

public

1653974048283

Jack2

Resolves YES if my flight on Tuesday arrives at the gate less than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival time, NO if it arrives late or is cancelled. (15 minutes is the typical threshold for considering a flight delayed in flight statistics.)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5060899561165852, "platformFee": 0.4176816593527643, "liquidityFee": 2.5060899561165852}

0

1654061091481

102.50608995611658

Jack2

1654061331769

0

https://firebasestorage.…56e-f3e0586e4104

6

0

1

0.5

1654053570636

1654061330986

0.9124188017314497

elmGP51vbleEwSIRJh0e

who-will-win-taskmaster-series-13

57

Who will win Taskmaster Series 13?

1655380740000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.890826398246325

True

play

e2a2b7f72268

public

1653978576309

N.C. Young

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.08, "platformFee": 1.27, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656328750780

340

NcyRocks

1654736125997

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e40e2e1b6f10", "prob": 0.4056959714390036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.75406532388833, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.376130292964014, "textFts": "", "contractId": "elmGP51vbleEwSIRJh0e", "createdTime": 1653978576466, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

https://firebasestorage.…c36-2ebc7ec59a43

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546184}]

["culture-default"]

1654736124566

{"e2a2b7f72268": 100}

True

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{"NO": 121.61637178996506, "YES": 3357.452803966027}

0

will-apple-show-off-its-arvr-headse-2d6cfed4b021

3222.3945663173054

Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset before March 2023?

1677625140000

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

cpmm-1

1.920361575378878

True

play

NO

public

1653982477030

Magnus Hambleton

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5541498674326788, "platformFee": 0.14835320703162708, "liquidityFee": 0.8901192421897623}

0

1677667712676

420.89011924218977

Mag

1677622339729

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c

24

0

1

22

[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669870829049}]

["virtual-reality"]

0.6

1677622338972

1676042012914

0.02

0.7335783001382411

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{"NO": 5.5831661587953505, "YES": 294.1261640434644}

0

i-will-still-be-living-at-formenoso

587.1890683047731

I will still be living at Formenos/Orokos on August 1.

1659329940000

ePk7uWInUId1WLSGxLHqEW1cYP63

cpmm-1

0

5.105894293343542

True

play

NO

public

1653988450443

Sonata Green

Jun 17, 9:46am: This refers to the physical location, not the social unit.

BINARY

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0

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0

1659332896207

101.7918925499219

SonataGreen

1655922059376

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjsZdUi0APHb8mz5kCS6AhPZiSrXopQtKpBXcaT=s96-c

5

0

1

0.75

1655922058074

1654479866359

0.049670440668687456

97p4Dalq7j8XtROLBlct

who-will-be-the-next-prezident-of-c

27

Who will be the next prezident of Czech Republic?

1655201063307

UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.94597476115825

True

play

CANCEL

public

1653998285105

Štefan Kecskes

I will accept answers - names - like "John Smith" only. Will be resolved after next Czech presidential elections.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655201063307

320

stkecskes

1655201053236

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikbuqjG_xpq4gkaKyOf_YnJLlWpIoFfVklrH_8HA=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b15b2b3ade25", "prob": 0.62000124000248, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.77452132461981, "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 31.73260411985948, "textFts": "", "contractId": "97p4Dalq7j8XtROLBlct", "createdTime": 1653998285275, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473643}, {"name": "Czechia", "slug": "czechia", "userId": "iRT5LQAh0EcD7YlNy7meJkW7rPD3", "groupId": "LIafK4fgGt8k95dE8g1Y", "createdTime": 1674247834747}]

["politics-default", "czechia"]

1653999779050

1655201047076

True

old

0.07005917999488452

eOZifiv9BYhVJGUVRVfD

{"NO": 298.99999998840735, "YES": 2.3078613897276057e-07}

1

do-i-feel-alive-today-d5e8386d771c

199

Do I feel alive today?

1654003803139

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-1

0

8.282039702680152

True

play

YES

public

1654003758546

Trent Yazzo

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.955594339164151e-08, "platformFee": 1.1592657231940252e-08, "liquidityFee": 6.955594339164151e-08}

0

1654003803139

100.00000006955594

kazoo

1654003796071

0

https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f

1

0

0.05

1654003794728

0.05

0.4920013007581291

JSae8nc8r2anxAJ5yyxN

{"NO": 58.55516796295203, "YES": 235.3520134413839}

0

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-b2f4e85658ed

722.5676842966311

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $775 on May 31, 2022?

1654023600000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.7217016767104996

True

play

NO

public

1654004115025

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.12514595353081, "platformFee": 1.3541909922551347, "liquidityFee": 8.12514595353081}

0

1654164814077

108.12514595353079

Predictor

1654012903974

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

6

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424910}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1654012902671

0.19417441876807434

0.5

OoITX2waBhaU8IymjsY3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-48f1471af321

0

test

1654011717090

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654011657878

Ian Philips

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654011717090

100

ian

1654011657878

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

0.5

RigkMd2yrs1hyqUO4m7o

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test2

0

test2

1654011710996

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654011665477

Ian Philips

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654011710996

100

ian

1654011665477

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

0.5

YIRXY9vFlkCBnDVHgbT5

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test3

0

test3

1654011703392

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654011683138

Ian Philips

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654011703392

100

ian

1654011683138

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

0.5

CLj7gKyMCjMvORy2SSqU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

freeee-falling

0

freeee falling

1654012569048

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654012561360

Ian Philips

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654012569048

100

ian

1654012561360

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

0.5

0J7iNSuRBg1UFcArL0IO

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-elon-musk-have-over-103000000

0

Will Elon Musk have over 103,000,000 followers by June 6th 2022 at 17:00?

1654015480099

ykE5ZMYsk2fwYn7A1B606lfcse83

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654012755158

xolith

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654015480099

100

xolith

1654012960580

0

https://firebasestorage.…392-e9c8cdf55ed2

0

True

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540435}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1654012958454

0.5

rTiR6BgGif3F2PuaZr4M

manifold-may-retro-what-went-well

750.3786356080377

Manifold May Retro: What went well?

1654153140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.676783103974142

True

play

MKT

public

1654012911064

Austin

As we wrap up May, we should take time to reflect on what things we accomplished (individually, and as a team) that we're especially proud of! This both gives us cause to celebrate, and also lets us double down on processes and ideas that are working~ Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the pro...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.440000000000001, "platformFee": 1.3600000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655749987527

1020.0000000000005

Austin

1655413308834

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "49b2994de7cb", "prob": 0.016202179133691055, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12097468638859596, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.345594186253936, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rTiR6BgGif3F2PuaZr4M", "createdTime": 1654012911146, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

1654130675178

1655413303443

{"012d5b29a235": 12.587539906209967, "40fdb5136454": 0.8384738766591102, "60717793d4c9": 24.25903787630681, "6f89882ab3f2": 1.0379495166707533, "8df14adcf3b8": 1.3665771812323078, "a6c67380e44f": 1.0041400861603051, "baa25898c87b": 0.9500449973435887, "cf6fabc03702": 14.237512346912373, "d9a88137da9f": 1.25923223936163...

True

0.5

kHp2KHtAdsZB5dLBAz2x

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

manifold-may-retro-what-could-have

0

Manifold May Retro: What could have gone better?

1654014070782

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654014057350

Austin

The flip side of https://manifold.markets/Austin/manifold-may-retro-what-went-well: where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well. Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the proba...

BINARY

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1654014070782

100

Austin

1654014057350

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

0.5

MoTDSlEYygHpbL5R2zZr

manifold-may-retro-what-could-have-070ef21456e2

69

Manifold May Retro: What could have gone better?

1654153140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.873619822535981

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654014096033

Austin

The flip side of https://manifold.markets/Austin/manifold-may-retro-what-went-well: where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well. Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the proba...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658607134320

580.0000000000001

Austin

1654114257838

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

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1

1654112502424

1654114254937

True

lBPEXUJmu1iCafOMoubM

test-bda21ae2b20c

42

test

1654014377615

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.915874670860393

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654014355638

Ian Philips

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654014377615

260

ian

1654014369751

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2243a1a4f184", "prob": 0.4959333465582226, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 85.2654467628447, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 86.66380008975537, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lBPEXUJmu1iCafOMoubM", "createdTime": 1654014355709, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...

1654014369579

True

0.5000013818338461

WTh0GQSLfyrZ5F2AQIdx

{"NO": 100.99504975001238, "YES": 99.13242944760704}

1

test-0eaf0b5dca7d

1

test

1654015347574

U7cdbQHKPJe4W6dNAEKn9LMIx0J3

cpmm-1

0

2.7714445053521293

True

play

YES

public

1654015166524

Rooter 0x

test

BINARY

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1654015347574

100.02970149992575

Rooter0x

1654015189287

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgKDpTLqxRIi4ZGHZ5ryiGYuCaPBSJfI8Ml2b7R=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1654015187779

0.5

pf55zMBGPv6othAwysPr

who-will-win-the-2022-rugby-world-c

102

Who will win the 2022 Rugby World Cup?

1664578740000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.898695807340387

True

play

a0b2f53a6987

public

1654016390730

Manifold

Question closes day before the event starts. May 31, 6:00pm: Nevermind thought it might be more fun to have the close date end mid event for some live betting possiblities. Let me know in the comments which you prefer, there are definitely pros and cons to closing it before the event starts.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669916318913

500

Manifold

1669849310973

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f0a1fb099c57", "prob": 0.4328254847645429, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.92875355512665, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.83943865863796, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pf55zMBGPv6othAwysPr", "createdTime": 1654016390817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

8

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1669923267159}]

["sports-default"]

1664538668998

1669849306722

{"a0b2f53a6987": 100}

True

0.0667412676147154

H4hOVt6e5rzOMahSNR7O

{"NO": 100.26622432713654, "YES": 94.89601642771964}

0

will-i-successfully-bake-macarons-t

150.16564912713747

Will I successfully bake macarons today?

1654056911239

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-1

0

8.647268777676931

True

play

NO

public

1654016945833

Devansh

I plan to make macarons today. This question resolves to YES if at least 50% of my macarons have all of the following: - a smooth top - a flat base - "feet" that are at least as high as the macaron dome, and are not larger in radius than the dome. and NO otherwise. N/A if I don't bake macarons, but this is pretty unlik...

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1654056911239

101.75953674296477

Devansh

1654056879743

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

5

0

0.05

1654056879489

1654054816425

0.34609375055344155

0.5032580821337449

utHRcLTzXQKTyaPRWt6L

{"NO": 150.36688667868702, "YES": 73.84733319963962}

0.6735116077437648

should-euthanasiaassisted-death-be

135

Should Euthanasia/assisted death be legalised in the US?

1656025140000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

2.736683249330377

True

play

MKT

public

1654017727613

Manifold

A health ethics debate topic this time around! See the last debate topic here: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/universal-basic-income-should-exist There's various levels of assisted suicide and euthanasia. Feel free to argue the extent of what you think is fine to legalise/decriminalise. For the sake of set...

BINARY

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0

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1656186460550

102.56684593539872

Manifold

1655994299937

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

13

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535879}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1655994298691

1655267106205

0.6735116077437648

0.4300081690139852

TzS0KgYSa43WokCC1ne6

{"NO": 79.21670074927434, "YES": 283.2289176413707}

0

will-the-paper-glioma-progression-i

183.3805760282725

Will the paper "Glioma progression is shaped by genetic evolution and microenvironment interactions" (Cell 2022) get >=75 citations by the end of the year?

1672549140000

8Be25mHPUdSU5yLjdLndpYiYCNW2

cpmm-1

0

2.4290820984611443

True

play

NO

public

1654018115063

Sedibus Research

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00536-0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2022.04.038 Citation count determined by Google Scholar.

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1680901785019

140.27149321266967

SedibusResearch

1680903539054

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy3_e-_qsSoIMsdTwMD2lzb4xDdmpNG7niisRWx=s96-c

6

0

20

7

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528849}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071988}]

["science-default", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1672240098735

1680903536685

0.17

0.5

f6SGEewdDYjQ0LhNeL4z

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

if-phil-arballo-is-a-candidate-for

0

If Phil Arballo is a candidate for the CA-13 House district in 2022, and the other candidate is a Republican, will he win the House seat?

1654642740000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654018216327

Tetra

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1655514979159

100

Tetraspace

1654018216327

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498007}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

0.359440322269186

MdtkbBqVpCiGDaPLRDvA

{"NO": 41.35314916442123, "YES": 1197.222999812166}

0

if-adam-gray-is-a-candidate-for-the

2052.0636566142684

Will Adam Gray win the CA-13 House seat in the 2022 election?

1669198507217

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

3.5447543500279393

True

play

NO

public

1654018236299

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-03 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 2, 2:26pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Adam Gray is a candidate for the CA-13 House district in 2022, and the other candidate is a R...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7241164427815154, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324}

0

1670086854357

200.27149321266967

Tetraspace

1670036960289

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

13

0

3

11

[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529458009}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483363}]

["politics-default", "us-2022-elections"]

0.5

1669192246219

1670036966098

0.019013572849317067

0.5000901944476315

1CuWHMNtU2W6bX88SY6q

{"NO": 75.45023277703442, "YES": 141.53835355138042}

0

will-i-have-an-appointment-with-a-p

89.65022572716622

Will I have an appointment with a psychiatrist in the next 30 days?

1656658740000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.756567861272087

True

play

NO

public

1654020331697

Rai

Regarding medication. See: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/why-is-my-lipid-metabolism-messed-u

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3639649805863208, "platformFee": 0.2787975257178954, "liquidityFee": 1.6727851543073722}

0

1656694382778

101.67278515430736

agentydragon

1655822946114

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

5

0

1

0.5

1655822890170

1655822942974

0.3477970464832888

4gKZT19zKjxkb5gURGpZ

who-will-contribute-1000-to-manifol

216.40724816686273

Who will contribute >= $1000 to Manifold for Good during May?

1654066740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.764610706898149

True

play

70c11c00eb54

public

1654020869700

Jack

Resolves equally to all accounts that contribute at least $1000 USD (i.e. M$100,000) to charity as listed on https://manifold.markets/charity, as of the end of May. If there are none, resolves to "None". (Acceptable options must clearly indicate a specific user. No other options will be included in resolution unless I ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.863710073325492, "platformFee": 1.215927518331373, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654067143151

460

jack

1654067250674

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "82feb3bc7f20", "prob": 0.10433221582358522, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.2047686184024595, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.512192514881487, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4gKZT19zKjxkb5gURGpZ", "createdTime": 1654020869754, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1654057388459

1654067247870

{"70c11c00eb54": 100}

True

0.5081207649869114

Z7iofwqXgQ8p3Z9ApTqj

{"NO": 322.1311438150909, "YES": 39.57203783323409}

1

will-the-faa-complete-their-environ-804e0ddf37f6

376.9556766025514

Will the FAA complete their Environmental Assessment of Starship by June 13th?

1655162548383

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

3.094608635284888

True

play

YES

public

1654021594039

Bolton Bailey

Resolves just as this previous market https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-faa-complete-their-environ, but for the new date given in this https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-faa-spacex-final-environmental-decision-set-early-tuesday-2022-05-31/ article.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 5.551722534480839, "platformFee": 0.9252870890801399, "liquidityFee": 5.551722534480839}

0

1655162548383

105.55172253448083

BoltonBailey

1655162498643

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

7

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450511}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1655162497288

0.555210433744136

0.5028606643506168

OrKbyr7DaKgfzA4UEJOU

{"NO": 182.36787702513539, "YES": 59.04862778070879}

0

will-my-daughters-week-at-chess-cam

86

Will my daughter's week at chess camp go well?

1654728329298

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

2.8624960586900556

True

play

NO

public

1654024209631

Alicorn

Resolves YES if we decide to sign her up for another week this year, or if it seems like one week is enough but generally she enjoyed herself and behaved well and might like to go again next summer.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.720455365945814, "platformFee": 0.28674256099096895, "liquidityFee": 1.720455365945814}

0

1654728329298

101.72045536594581

Alicorn

1654614162351

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

8

0

0.5

1654614161103

1654049079986

0.7575157239245747

0.49422447931702485

Btc9aLB7zlgaTJKPW6IH

{"NO": 36.49530329735761, "YES": 304.6011382123514}

0.10480663052481909

are-san-franciscos-existing-initiat

314.15441820342755

Are San Francisco's existing initiatives and policies enough to achieve Abundant Housing in the next five years?

1672559940000

B72W8axQdLQRoVpfHc3ApUKWduO2

cpmm-1

0

3.230356860146819

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654024883733

Finn Macken

This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (https://civicdash.org/), where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, abundant housing is a civic goal that entails that: - All citizens in...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702758558174

102.08802210955943

FinnMacken81bd

1702758555296

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGbJUEvuFcaoZ2UNG0cEujXnFuK2mMjm-1l_Jm=s96-c

8

0

70

8

[{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769995}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1659869757575}, {"name": "Pol...

["politics-default", "polls", "housing-markets", "san-francisco"]

0.5

1670111509513

1702758554604

0.1

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.49985314125188496

Y2qXEDPTFlUBLZOIxDj4

{"NO": 90.5008579406124, "YES": 111.94577841929524}

0.44689041532952917

is-san-francisco-doing-enough-to-su

19.81601180592336

Is San Francisco doing enough to support the education of its citizens?

1672559940000

B72W8axQdLQRoVpfHc3ApUKWduO2

cpmm-1

0

2.7652889247872015

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654025063831

Finn Macken

This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (https://civicdash.org/), where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, effective education: - Provides lifelong skills and competencies, act...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702454580295

100.32532948422886

FinnMacken81bd

1702454584789

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGbJUEvuFcaoZ2UNG0cEujXnFuK2mMjm-1l_Jm=s96-c

3

0

70

4

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492170}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1659869757576}]

["politics-default", "polls"]

0.5

1667245298366

1702454583009

0.45

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.5001212728640488

AQOsYW4TSika9iGxN1aF

{"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770495}

0.5447322636767832

are-san-franciscos-existing-initiat-8aa0371c0650

10.000000000000014

Are San Francisco's existing initiatives and policies enough to make it a truly sustainable city?

1672559940000

B72W8axQdLQRoVpfHc3ApUKWduO2

cpmm-1

0

2.7657734519903276

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654025303532

Finn Macken

This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (https://civicdash.org/), where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, environmental sustainability is a civic goal that entails that: - San...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702244591221

100.27149321266968

FinnMacken81bd

1702244588255

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGbJUEvuFcaoZ2UNG0cEujXnFuK2mMjm-1l_Jm=s96-c

2

0

69

3

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1659869757576}]

["polls"]

0.5

1667245219050

1702244587626

0.54

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

8bJouwK1zLxjVZ4vDe7d

what-will-be-the-largest-donation-t

269.98424186002984

What will be the largest donation to Manifold for Good before June?

1654066740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.747058412944757

True

play

c93d6557b6f7

public

1654026815331

Jack

Resolves to the largest total amount donated by a single account as of the end of May listed on https://manifold.markets/charity, in USD. Valid buckets are of the form (10^n, 2*10^n), (2*10^n, 5*10^n), (5*10^n, 10^{n+1}). This question is motivated by these related markets: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/tot...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1654067068061

380

jack

1654067122380

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

0

ANYONE

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1654062658072

1654067120515

{"c93d6557b6f7": 100}

True

0.6503761405956909

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{"NO": 123.1790212454924, "YES": 92.53513013746141}

0

will-i-see-a-turtle-tomorrow

52

Will I see a turtle tomorrow?

1654111641339

hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2

cpmm-1

0

3.0094864165088024

True

play

NO

public

1654027040515

Connor McCormick

I'm in Cozumel diving right now. We do two dives a day. On both days we've seen at least one turtle. However, we're told they're not so common. This market resolves YES if we see another turtle tomorrow.

BINARY

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1654111641339

101.1340118230205

ConnorMcCormick

1654059002843

0

https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5

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1654059001215

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{"NO": 57.93950330404279, "YES": 643.4557743813252}

0

will-russia-officially-declare-war-d68c173a00e2

628

Will Russia officially declare war in Ukraine before the end of June 2022?

1656655140000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

4.226907983453706

True

play

NO

public

1654030122111

Scott Lawrence

The natural follow-up to https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-officially-declare-war.

BINARY

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ScottLawrence

1656290904434

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https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

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["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

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1656290903195

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{"NO": 36.91816822061247, "YES": 817.7979616453961}

0

will-i-be-in-the-top-4-of-top-betto

720

Will I be in the top 4 of “Top Bettors” again in June?

1656597540000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

4.164957361294724

True

play

NO

public

1654031898858

Undox

Anytime in June for any amount of time.

BINARY

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1656660585705

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Undox

1656597301639

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{"NO": 119.54332633426901, "YES": 86.42868202934747}

0.5807557164941866

will-i-return-to-university-this-fa

38.32052387155671

Will I return to university this fall?

1656692258111

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cpmm-1

0

2.753445445261113

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654032702027

1

Everyone in my life tells me I should, as I am one credit away from graduation. For a while I have had no inclination toward doing so; right now it seems like possibly an option, but I am not solidly pursuing it. Resolves to yes if I am in enrolled in class(es) on September 15. The only barriers to my doing so are rel...

BINARY

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1656692258111

100.81689876504575

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1654501946808

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https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

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1654501945298

1654037611701

0.5807557164941866

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{"NO": 404.0931871130081, "YES": 620.6974365397208}

1

will-this-paper-get-into-cell

270.30635393290714

Will this paper get into Cell?

1672549140000

Y005WvA8t7WG4cZBds7rHzyiOdT2

cpmm-1

0

1.2267157998196414

True

play

YES

public

1654033346587

Nika

The paper is "A Chloroplast Protein Atlas Reveals Novel Structures and Spatial Organization of Biosynthetic Pathways", I'm one of the authors, here's the preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.31.493820v1, we submitted it to Cell and it got sent out for review. I'm testing Manifold's ability to pr...

BINARY

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1689103984405

441.7709751242858

Nika_from_Poland

1689205054637

0

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531740}]

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1672546591416

1689205050885

0.15

0.35970411636530486

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{"NO": 68.08747572917586, "YES": 386.75043810907}

0

will-the-augustines-roman-catholic

278.7454770001185

Will the Augustine's Roman Catholic Church tabernacle be recovered by the end of the year?

1672549140000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

2.871483414114632

True

play

NO

public

1654034493975

Duncn

It must still be in the form of a tabernacle, but may have jewels missing. It may be in police or church custody even if not returned to the site of the crime at time of market close.

BINARY

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0

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1672588670682

140.401488609004

Duncn

1672547753540

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

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0

1

5

0.5

1672547753394

0.09

0.5113596763318711

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{"NO": 149.19087359310373, "YES": 96.6412052374866}

0.58

poll-would-you-use-manifold-more-or

495.32465297626817

[POLL] Would you use Manifold more or less if anyone could cash out M$ to USD?

1654671540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.4569734697831933

True

play

MKT

public

1654035154053

Austin

Today, we support withdrawing M$ to charities, but not back to your own wallet. If you could turn your M$ back to USD, would you be more or less interested in using Manifold? Vote with YES to indicate more, or NO to indicate less. This market resolves to the proportion of YES vs NO votes in the comments.

BINARY

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109.76863696576565

Austin

1654902866524

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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1

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1654641324182

1654902863912

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0.06279990846514177

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{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-74557e7dd7b2

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1654039630143

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654039619258

Say Jarva

BINARY

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1654039630143

100.01704414600928

SayJarva

1654039627776

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

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1654039626434

0.05

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{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-495be503de5e

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1654039656934

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654039645829

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1654039656934

100.01704414600928

PeterBerggrenf455

1654039654357

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

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1654039653020

0.05

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{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-market-yes-54315d078835

50

Will I resolve this market "YES?"

1654039682595

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654039675580

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1654039682595

100.01704414600928

unit_24601

1654039681138

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1

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0.05

1654039679835

0.05

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{"NO": 137.29075421251432, "YES": 0.5193921580483767}

1

is-the-manifold-free-money-exploit

1550

Is the Manifold free money exploit still active?

1654039859961

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

8.037567821859028

True

play

YES

public

1654039802931

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1654039859961

100.56283914122682

PeterBerggren

1654039855358

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

4

0

0.05

1654039853985

0.002851289966635966

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what-life-improvement-intervention

13977.367700628904

What life improvement intervention suggested would I found most useful?

1657263540000

Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6194160072699075

True

play

MKT

public

1654042441392

Vlad Sitalo

How is this going to be resolved: I commit to trying at least 3 top suggested interventions and resolve the market in proportion of how useful I found each. (I may also try more than 3 suggestions if I find them particularly attractive) What kind of interventions should you suggest? - This is meant to be fairly br...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4662002365897297, "platformFee": 0.11655005914743242, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1690094186496

3140.000000000005

vlad

1699071634442

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c

2

50

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4907b4cb6551", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.740977795557037e-05, "userId": "Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.47405036977774817, "textFts": "", "contractId": "E7IQxtnaaCqN1gfNT5sn", "createdTime": 1654042441441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month"...

1

50

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662804469309}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 16590160858...

["recommendations", "please-resolve", "life-intervention", "personal-goals"]

1657262642046

1699071633737

False

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True

0.4923131080296007

JZpnkKUvt5xiEJhYLIMT

{"NO": 22.477972003436243, "YES": 991.2024605807915}

0

is-oneclickbetting-good

1802.069581085617

Is one-click-betting good?

1654689540000

HcJH2XSqofZZtEFeNei5AZSmZqu2

cpmm-1

0

3.6330568440420645

True

play

NO

public

1654044666770

Mathias Foster

The devil is in the details and the details can contradict the question title. This question resolves to YES if Manifold either: removes click-to-vote, lets you review the exact terms before voting (without any user input other than clicking on the vote button), or rearranges the card view so the terms are displayed on...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 23.0417681648755, "platformFee": 3.8402946941459173, "liquidityFee": 23.0417681648755}

0

1654714939029

123.04176816487544

MathiasFoster

1654714904481

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxrQjcwFKJHruaGjdqX07ZntxNfsUioWXJabgb2=s96-c

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1

0.5

1654680791768

1654714904513

0.02151757050764766

0.5

caFuyfFADQeYIN5YKQYH

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-strangemood-the-decentralized

0

Will Strangemood, the decentralized Steam alternative, have at least 10M in sales volume by June 2023?

1654047220566

eF6i8221G0OYMHDdjocEGBg2w812

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654046939447

Emmy

https://www.strangemood.org/

BINARY

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1654047220566

100

emmy

1654047217177

0

https://firebasestorage.…c8a-895ec7e46b2e

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1654047214909

0.5

0.06693729108720876

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{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

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will-resolve-yeah

100

Will resolve Yeah.

1654047380732

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

8.125090873627006

True

play

YES

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1654047356289

Electricitypipe

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Electricitypipe

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https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

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1654047373816

0.05

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0.6

how-many-people-will-show-up-to-tac

60

How many people will show up to Taco Tuesday tonight? [%*20]

1654063133958

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.8278301463900615

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play

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1654047421183

Austin

Our largest Taco Tuesday to date has been about 12 people??

BINARY

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101.09583304020445

Austin

1654063235318

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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0.5

1654052931271

1654063233512

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0.5276382123869046

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{"NO": 245.27801861879033, "YES": 53.18139030167791}

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will-my-friend-use-manifold-markets

1612.9678647484548

Will my friend use manifold markets?

1655006287484

q1s9tDmCqoYYDFNjB4of25ZwqZh2

cpmm-1

0

2.8877181297715873

True

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YES

public

1654048838715

Griffin Wolf

I recommended manifold markets to my friend, it seems like the kind of thing he would be into. He has some interests that seem relevant or correlated to relevant interests, including sci-fi, coding, games and and gaming, and theology and history a little; and has taken a fair number of my recommendations in the past. I...

BINARY

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0

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0

1655006287484

105.45375028870293

GriffinWolf

1654913950659

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgmmU_luJG08wRAYDkaS3BJeacUmJ4ZWWCegiI=s96-c

9

0

0.5

1654913949303

1654637169031

0.8374463991866291

0.7673890418139524

qItWjUHmcLoYwUeqPbcc

{"NO": 555.5371913762818, "YES": 168.14205001153306}

1

will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l-2d831ffef88f

780.8118762035033

Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least FIVE new novels during 2023

1704095940000

kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1

cpmm-1

0

2.2220792471444306

True

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YES

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1654049234978

Alex Rockwell

To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023. Note that 4 have been announced as of this market's creation.

BINARY

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244.08516093219635

AlexRockwell

1710206690752

0

https://firebasestorage.…df9-4e148250b2c7

17

0

1

19

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancie...

["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "ancient-markets", "cosmere"]

0.5

1685584704871

1704152853500

0.92

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

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yAJp5XPTtroFrzprIqco

{"NO": 0.16797350286597384, "YES": 149.86840908646968}

0

this-question-will-resolve-to-no

50

This question will resolve to NO

1654049585073

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

8.018999358414192

True

play

NO

public

1654049550385

Matt P

Gotta get dat mana

BINARY

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Will I get access to DALL-E 2 in 2022?

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Ben

I applied for the waiting list on May 27, 2022.

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Will I get some free money from a very strange design choice to incentivize market creation?

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Isaac King

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Will Petra Kosonen submit her thesis by July 6?

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Joel Becker

Petra’s thesis submission deadline is July 6. She cannot work on it from July 3. She started writing the last paper 1 week ago. Will she submit on time?

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Secret Market 1

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Sapphire Star

Condition remains true through EOY Jun 1, 1:28am: Condition == 'Good outcome'

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Should MM implement scroll location history so that when you press the back button after viewing a market you return where you were instead of at the top.

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Mr Stone

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I will book my upcoming travel this week

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Jack2

#Personal #Commitments

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will-i-exercise-30-minutes-a-day-in

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Will I exercise 30 minutes a day in June?

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Alice

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This market will have traded >M$29,999 in volume before the end of the month.

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SneakySly

Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.

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Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of June 2022?

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Account deletion requested

resolution criteria and definitions of "mostly open", see comments on https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly * artificially propping up the shares won't be counted against the market being considered open * limits on foreigners making transactions are relevant * limits on foreigners ul...

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Will Manifold Markets implement a native 'poll' feature in 2022?

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NO

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N.C. Young

Quite a few polls have been posted on Manifold lately, using comments to take votes with the market predicting the outcome. Seems like this would be a reasonably straightforward thing to natively support. As well as polling for polling's sake, a poll could be used to decide which way a market should resolve without th...

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