p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.24482225645490838 | uCesEZxE8X3JJ4M1btfW | {"NO": 143.23817688183297, "YES": 1811.1973629686302} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-have-a-dark-m | 1940.8349035323959 | Will Manifold Markets have a dark mode by the end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.234089902312138 | True | play | NO | public | 1654076771190 | Dwaxe | This question resolves to Yes if manifold.markets adds a dark mode toggle by the end of the year. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.165869097634167, "platformFee": 0.863700122550796, "liquidityFee": 5.182200735304775} | 0 | 1675498013103 | 293.1822007353048 | Dwaxe | 1675498022669 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 7 | 31 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "cre... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "please-resolve"] | 0.25 | 1672558539348 | 1675498020239 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uqyyjhBzjcIQzxbldUqs | who-will-win-season-2-of-the-kpop-s | 292.9330174865065 | Who will win season 2 of the K-pop show Queendom? | 1654183228479 | HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.740106035689576 | True | play | 3e9b95128a55 | public | 1654087098667 | Theodore Ehrenborg | See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queendom_(TV_series) for details | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.44, "platformFee": 2.61, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654183228479 | 560 | TheodoreEhrenborg | 1654175540680 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "91aef9d093a5", "prob": 0.0710857141774646, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.9102778861759346, "userId": "HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.962602386320864, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uqyyjhBzjcIQzxbldUqs", "createdTime": 1654087098748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548319}] | ["culture-default"] | 1654175539290 | {"3e9b95128a55": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21271588545189046 | 6bydi0V1RpGwBrHcSwQU | {"NO": 169.56786075943836, "YES": 2326.835313168087} | 0 | will-prime-minister-mark-rutte-be-t | 3394.476899206418 | Will Prime Minister Mark Rutte be the Lead Candidate for the VVD in the next Dutch General Election? | 1700516699122 | 2xQz0XnFU7d8Hhv0LXU5DsAGSuc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.232725811167232 | True | play | NO | public | 1654089859757 | Arie Arie | Resolves YES if Mark Rutte is the lead candidate on the VVD list in the next election for the House of Representatives of the States General of the Netherlands. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2134974891805699, "platformFee": 0.035582914863428315, "liquidityFee": 0.2134974891805699} | 0 | 1700516699122 | 360.21349748918055 | ArieArie | 1700515833994 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471218}, {"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "userId": "tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1680735589940}] | ["politics-default", "nederland"] | 0.25 | 1700515833736 | 1692734864598 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DoKmTSYw4wH4bCigTVmX | what-new-notification-types-will-ma | 92 | What new notification types will Manifold add in June? | 1656655140000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.846026073490958 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654094854473 | Ian Philips | I just added notifications on (I will not choose these as answers):
On questions you answered/bet/commented on:
- Creator resolved or updated the question
- Someone commented or answered
On questions you create:
- Someone commented or answered
Jun 1, 8:47am: You can add answers for changes to the notification system ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.44, "platformFee": 1.11, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656683485711 | 620.0000000000002 | ian | 1654564037209 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ae356ac76445", "prob": 0.2712673611111111, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.638595199838946, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.952322144847344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DoKmTSYw4wH4bCigTVmX", "createdTime": 1654094854767, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1654564037034 | 1654564003881 | {"070dbe8c574e": 12.470463667562553, "2656864e67ce": 12.470463667562553, "33e3b79668c0": 12.470463667562553, "3a5fafbd02bf": 12.470463667562553, "9b171ab6a672": 12.470463667562553, "c288041d3f76": 12.470463667562553, "da3123de2692": 12.470463667562553, "eb243e85dda0": 12.706754327062132} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4923709319798143 | 6ljoRpJEKPYBaEqtPjOT | {"NO": 37.77687219393223, "YES": 300.58791611482206} | 0.02 | poll-what-of-days-do-people-use-cat | 201 | [POLL] What % of days do people use Categories? | 1654622754752 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1937284942003723 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654099477233 | Austin | Poll: Respond in the comments with the % of days where you've meaningfully used a category, roughly from last week (5/25) through market close a week from now (6/8). "Meaningfully used" is somewhat subjective, but I would say:
- Includes deliberately clicking on a Category tag to find relevant markets
- Includes taggi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.472503311067704, "platformFee": 0.4120838851779508, "liquidityFee": 2.472503311067704} | 0 | 1654622754752 | 102.47250331106768 | Austin | 1654622763386 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654305409832 | 1654622762036 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500121272864049 | K21WSZKzugsYqApmRIyL | {"NO": 100.54299091434387, "YES": 100.54299091434387} | 0 | will-le-pere-goriot-be-on-the-maced | 19.41176021687783 | Will Le Père Goriot be on the Macedonian Matura Exam for the subject: Macedonian on the June Exam period | 1654365649932 | PZnIInE520cQKvTty0lOx1ND7uy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7617731063275026 | True | play | NO | public | 1654099616806 | MatejMecka | Students on June 4th in North Macedonia will take the Matura, a final exam to finish their high school education.
This Question resolves positively if Le Père Goriot
Old Questions which are in Macedonian can be found on matura.gov.mk | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1654365649932 | 100.27149321266968 | MatejMecka | 1654354533421 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6KtYbPT8B-hy1GJXR8ZpUDXtg4s9vge24JSPUCg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654354533238 | 1654099830524 | 0.500121272864049 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | EIRcdYZ2MW3QAEXttf8a | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | this-market-resolves-as-na | 0 | This market resolves as N/A | 1654101213589 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654101204610 | Isaac King | Testing whether I can make free money by resolving as N/A.
Jun 1, 12:33pm: Narrator: He could not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654101213589 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1654101204610 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4994829437014033 | QfNHVmDcO09bXoztCluv | {"NO": 35.86268706973992, "YES": 293.20278450640035} | 0 | will-manifold-give-us-a-useful-dash | 238 | Will Manifold give us a useful dashboard of portfolio values over time by the end of the month? | 1656734340000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.252967956614698 | True | play | NO | public | 1654103487419 | Enopoletus Harding | This question resolves to Yes if we get a useful dashboard of portfolio values over time by the end of the month (with charts and everything). It resolves to No if we don't get this or we get this, but it's useless. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.643636616848426, "platformFee": 0.2026266819828838, "liquidityFee": 1.215760091897303} | 0 | 1657043947075 | 101.21576009189732 | EnopoletusHarding | 1656871623121 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656701113509 | 1656871620054 | 0.10878276508529862 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ogfFJXXDRJaKh8Cqpczc | link-bounty-which-links-will-i-add | 101 | Link Bounty: Which links will I add to my next linkpost? | 1655319540000 | G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.8367741249943155 | True | play | 8f7ce1fa25d9 | public | 1654107430273 | Sam Harsimony | I'm looking for interesting articles to include in future linkposts. I will resolve this question as an even split between all the answers that provide me with new links.
Here are some of the linkposts I have published in the past:
https://harsimony.wordpress.com/tag/links/
Note:
- Links that I have already planned ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.04, "platformFee": 1.01, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655323313675 | 260 | SamHarsimony | 1655309465942 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHG2tIPogQSAicyVVtqTDp_FBGj2gT-oxGk9Er=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "db172a857b8a", "prob": 0.2475186257765897, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.6062844056764, "userId": "G1jCkBxdaChEhm7rWq02gQJTxck1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 74.80556522169684, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ogfFJXXDRJaKh8Cqpczc", "createdTime": 1654107430340, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | 1655309464792 | {"8f7ce1fa25d9": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7496318218297933 | yVoct09KGyONXjz4E5po | {"NO": 10.461902556669827, "YES": 216.2716001283218} | 0 | will-i-receive-the-century-fellowsh | 519.8553946622019 | Will I receive the Century Fellowship by end of July? | 1659326340000 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6621468996227575 | True | play | NO | public | 1654109073507 | Juan Gil | This question resolves to YES if, by the end of July, I receive official communication offering me the Century Fellowship (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/other-areas/century-fellowship).
I applied a few weeks ago (early May). My LinkedIn is here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/juan-gil-8b8a38125/
I'm happy to an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.975154729707006, "platformFee": 0.10949504509949025, "liquidityFee": 0.6569702705969415} | 0 | 1659330294608 | 100.65697027059694 | juan | 1659326311627 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1659326309853 | 1659041819924 | 0.12651334442966097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42715233745546394 | LuNtnCioJm5vdtSXugWx | {"NO": 92.61335096420318, "YES": 1657.404378744078} | 0 | will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l-c0d4ecff535e | 4004.8665212121814 | Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least SIX new novels in 2023 | 1704095940000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8165332321751624 | True | play | NO | public | 1654110821065 | Alex Rockwell | The Sanderson option chain continues :D
To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023.
Note that 4 have been announced as of this market's creation. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.135306413673994, "platformFee": 0.4160753177891091, "liquidityFee": 2.4964519067346544} | 0 | 1704152848459 | 342.49645190673465 | AlexRockwell | 1710206689532 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "gr... | ["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "cosmere"] | 0.10341274698428042 | 0.5 | 1704090431647 | 1704152844239 | 0.04 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.513921229543968 | nyZbFjPG7WksWOwTP2nh | {"NO": 202.8533738557211, "YES": 55.829341411376504} | 0 | will-my-weekly-calorie-average-be-a-4948e93e7336 | 275 | Will my weekly calorie average be at or below my goal for the next four weeks? | 1654776724029 | Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.891537851679665 | True | play | NO | public | 1654112008263 | Stephen Malina | Redux of this previous market (https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/will-my-weekly-calorie-average-be-a). The situation is sadly only slightly better than last time, my current weight is ~167 lbs and current calorie target is 1585.
The resolution criteria for "yes" will be threefold:
1. At the end of each of the nex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.379369145901263, "platformFee": 0.3965615243168772, "liquidityFee": 2.379369145901263} | 0 | 1654776724029 | 102.37936914590126 | StephenMalina | 1654144393699 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654144391765 | 0.793455762307185 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17671350572821157 | Va9dO7fY0na10rueT9Qa | {"NO": 146.1822302634454, "YES": 1407.4584091143945} | 0 | will-the-game-furry-hitler-2022-get | 1399.0816245229526 | Will the game 'Furry Hitler' (2022) get removed from the Steam store? | 1704063416190 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.032881386105536 | True | play | NO | public | 1654112475631 | Ray Doraisamy | The game 'Furry Hitler' was recently added to the Steam store. Initial reviews suggest that it is attracting a lot of criticism, of the kind that may result in the kind of pressure that results in it getting removed from the platform.
However, few games have been removed from the Steam store due to offensiveness, with... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5955782955035467, "platformFee": 0.25481893020864566, "liquidityFee": 1.5289135812518735} | 0 | 1704063416190 | 221.52891358125186 | RayDoraisamy | 1704063416913 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411623}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489868}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkU... | ["politics-default", "gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.25 | 1702150700064 | 1702143503524 | 0.02 | zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2482895084599798 | cFtEaakZhTWE9I6bYXBL | {"NO": 65.13240937733114, "YES": 491.1872678167491} | 0 | will-a-screenshot-of-this-market-ap | 477.25477049709656 | Will a screenshot of this market appear in Above the Fold in June? | 1656658740000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.993452182920616 | True | play | NO | public | 1654115011018 | Ben | Resolves YES if a screenshot of this market appears in the Manifold “Above the Fold” newsletter in any of the instances of it sent out in June, 2022.
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.471940368513635, "platformFee": 0.6289273371748672, "liquidityFee": 3.7735640230492034} | 0 | 1656676763025 | 103.7735640230492 | bcongdon | 1656658104079 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1656658102905 | 1654196471920 | 0.041960551920346346 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5427237330410833 | QREVFLL7l4pwyiMYt2Mt | {"NO": 696.9817753469566, "YES": 22.81053191113176} | 1 | will-san-franciscos-attorney-genera | 2440.89113833984 | Will San Francisco's attorney general, Chesa Boudin, be recalled? | 1655481758403 | Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.928444270534968 | True | play | YES | public | 1654115915681 | RoboTeddy | This question resolves to YES if the current attempt to recall Chesa Boudin succeeds. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.705022481001696, "platformFee": 0.9508370801669492, "liquidityFee": 5.705022481001696} | 0 | 1655481758403 | 105.70502248100166 | TedSuzman | 1655190874107 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c | 11 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486017}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1655190872828 | 1655178268822 | 0.973165076973694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25259815939024244 | U8XeZ9nqUklAgVTSyDwi | {"NO": 139.7819990794379, "YES": 41.073686947943955} | 0 | will-i-get-some-packing-done-this-w | 40 | Will I get some packing done this week? | 1654412340000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.787320562918917 | True | play | NO | public | 1654116386394 | Em ✨ | We've cleared some swap space, now we need to go through our stuff and sort what we're keeping. It's hard finding times to sync up when we all have energy. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.308005523372527, "platformFee": 0.21800092056208784, "liquidityFee": 1.308005523372527} | 0 | 1655822709952 | 101.30800552337253 | hamnox | 1654269847634 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1654269846291 | 0.5349213776537082 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2757836344878057 | lURgNXSt8gWilNf7lReo | {"NO": 1293.998722555593, "YES": 0.06148381602149086} | 1 | does-1-1 | 1194 | Does 1 = 1? | 1654117689575 | pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.515018538934283 | True | play | YES | public | 1654117628789 | samanddeanus | Does 1 = 1? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.007664666440709666, "platformFee": 0.0012774444067849445, "liquidityFee": 0.007664666440709666} | 0 | 1654117689575 | 100.0076646664407 | samanddeanus | 1654117665169 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654117663942 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KOPOY6pdBhcNzrPMxeqt | what-die-will-i-roll | 128.99397601291693 | What die will I roll? | 1656172740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.844959946894067 | True | play | 397a046ac88c | public | 1654119291854 | Duncn | I have lots of dice. I will roll a die that 1. I own and 2. matches an answer selection posted below. The die that matches these criteria AND has the highest number of sides wins. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.6002409594833225, "platformFee": 1.9000602398708306, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656193386294 | 820.0000000000002 | Duncn | 1656193426848 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1eae0a6d20d3", "prob": 0.26846358291497757, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.842235557055645, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.544007669420928, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KOPOY6pdBhcNzrPMxeqt", "createdTime": 1654119291938, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 1656084118837 | 1656193422917 | {"397a046ac88c": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23559847262098235 | lIwucx7S8VFhN7bGk0F5 | {"NO": 155.64373783867717, "YES": 286.851104146973} | 0.14327417289009942 | will-the-cftc-approve-manifold-mark | 140.01841891838092 | Will the CFTC approve Manifold Markets as an authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM) by 2025 | 1735718340000 | ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1654119417492 | Dwaxe | This question resolves positively if the CFTC designates Manifold (or whatever name this site is currently operating under) as a DCM by 2025. For reference, see their press release for Kalshi from November 4, 2020: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8302-20 | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26086698158205945, "platformFee": 0.043477830263676576, "liquidityFee": 0.26086698158205945} | 0 | 180.26086698158207 | Dwaxe | 1708453546143 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1708453525971 | 1698773705783 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4945294911287113 | ZMOkidXB1Qs0AgG0yrdy | {"NO": 10.328648113422869, "YES": 1477.094139394902} | 0 | will-bitcoin-fall-below-29k-this-we | 1735 | Will bitcoin fall below $29K this week? | 1654487940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.919082895653233 | True | play | NO | public | 1654120751498 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if bitcoin trades below on CoinMarketCap anytime before midnight on Sunday June 5th. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.159245166672017, "platformFee": 1.8598741944453356, "liquidityFee": 11.159245166672017} | 0 | 1654552195634 | 111.15924516667201 | BTE | 1654486805748 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1654486803932 | 0.006794706559080584 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49933834017691336 | Pb0ZoZb3yxfGeuK1HlaL | {"NO": 94.98897329489569, "YES": 110.04894549044224} | 0.46261712717771464 | are-my-nightmares-helpful | 50.452955785884775 | Are my nightmares helpful? | 1656692270360 | qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7313924646701935 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654124574963 | 1 | Resolves to yes if the first market “will I know the truth?” resolves to yes, and my nightmares somehow contribute to the positive outcome. Resolves to ℕ/A if “will I know the truth” resolves to no (or if the link is questionable). Resolves to “no” if “will I know the truth?” resolves yes but nightmares play no part.
... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656692270360 | 101.11604054688038 | 1 | 1654501948169 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654501946675 | 1654195168457 | 0.46261712717771464 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500202083998553 | GtBWEtYaF81aycQEsxSP | {"NO": 161.61123937759257, "YES": 62.89963881435228} | 1 | will-a-russian-cosmonaut-fly-on-spa | 292.07546368384044 | Will a Russian cosmonaut fly on SpaceX's Crew-5 mission? | 1664990860500 | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8668998585850374 | True | play | YES | public | 1654125992028 | Multicore | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if anyone who is a citizen of Russia reaches orbit in SpaceX's Crew Dragon in the Crew-5 mission. This is currently planned to happen but political tensions make it uncertain. See https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.821619022216575, "platformFee": 0.06698544441566504, "liquidityFee": 0.4019126664939902} | 0 | 1664990860500 | 100.40191266649398 | Multicore | 1664990851606 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445903}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461238}] | ["technology-default", "space"] | 0.5 | 1664987925510 | 1664991103455 | 0.72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2726851975202117 | a53WomefefzaSB30oddm | {"NO": 122.87862552781404, "YES": 1257.5417372429529} | 0 | will-this-research-paper-linking-co | 1580.0872272770755 | Will this research paper linking consumption of coffee with lower risk of death be heavily cited? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2887855405421242 | True | play | NO | public | 1654128994127 | Research.Bet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this research paper receive 30 citations in 2022? Association of Sugar-Sweetened, Artificially Sweetened, and Unsweetened Coffee Consumption With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality : A Large Prospective Cohort Study. Liu D, Li ZH, Shen D, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.395136651111077, "platformFee": 0.17117255365769127, "liquidityFee": 1.0270353219461474} | 0 | 1672871739845 | 301.0270353219462 | ResearchBet | 1672546272814 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132950703}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537970}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId"... | ["researchbet", "medicine", "science-default"] | 0.7 | 1672546272696 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999717 | jlouYrSQJmRhD6P7H135 | {"NO": 1100, "YES": 9.090909090909122} | 1 | will-david-bakhtiari-play-in-the-20 | 1000 | Will David Bakhtiari play in the 2022-23 NFL season? | 1664382593788 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.14383605355522 | True | play | YES | public | 1654132062266 | Mvem | David Bakhtiari suffered an ACL injury at the end of 2020. He managed to play for part of one game in the 2021-22 season, but was inactive for the rest of the season. At the time of this post, there are questions surrounding the state of his recovery, even going so far as to speculate that he may not play again.
Resol... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664382593788 | 100 | Mvem | 1664382297090 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406807}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1664291275872 | 1664381832601 | 0.9918032786885245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.195894827446452 | Q6zrWpsjiJDtrxPpMZ2U | {"NO": 125.4816971744543, "YES": 3419.522156828757} | 0 | will-strangemood-the-decentralized-90f7ba955b58 | 4363.085345250499 | Will Strangemood, the decentralized Steam alternative, exceed GOG in quarterly sales volume or revenue for any quarter by the end of 2023? | 1704095940000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.027651346645055 | True | play | NO | public | 1654132904018 | SneakySly | If Strangemood does beat GOG for any quarter, the question will immediately resolve YES. If the time period is reached and Strangemood has not beaten GOG this question resolves NO.
Strangemood:
https://www.strangemood.org/
GOG:
https://www.gog.com/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.671889908520088, "platformFee": 0.5938848186006123, "liquidityFee": 3.563308911603673} | 0 | 1704155546752 | 283.5633089116037 | SneakySly | 1704155570028 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132457287}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1692941577094 | 1704155569378 | 0.01 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.932130752619444 | fFOWMVow0sFBH3bfYhQK | {"NO": 6.997156518287926e-05, "YES": 219.99999676793522} | 0 | will-i-ask-a-real-question-today | 120 | Will I ask a real question today? | 1654134133174 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.156656988554928 | True | play | NO | public | 1654134110566 | Scott Lawrence | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9392388864963352e-05, "platformFee": 3.232064810827226e-06, "liquidityFee": 1.9392388864963352e-05} | 0 | 1654134133174 | 100.00001939238886 | ScottLawrence | 1654134119115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.95 | 1654134118894 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5344308205206522 | lc2qdpK47RjaTAAYDHGg | {"NO": 721.7895915900522, "YES": 18.985325856165446} | 1 | will-the-sun-rise-tomorrow | 1702.2511621949982 | 🌞Will the sun rise tomorrow? | 1654205195775 | k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.184912113742607 | True | play | YES | public | 1654134938833 | d6e | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.020031346424119, "platformFee": 0.5033385577373531, "liquidityFee": 3.020031346424119} | 0 | 1654205195775 | 103.02003134642412 | d6e | 1654206284984 | 0 | 18 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533016}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1654204973349 | 1654206284162 | 0.9775993272718547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49898204290652387 | UWzRGT9Cjijrd2fjxZnW | {"NO": 70.2913565575372, "YES": 147.06097031803344} | 0.33 | in-september-what-probability-will | 85.92171371627785 | In September, what probability will Trump have of winning the 2024 US Presidency on ElectionBettingOdds? | 1662039615061 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.808801986132851 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654137413605 | Jack | Resolves to the percentage chance of Trump winning the 2024 US Presidency shown on https://electionbettingodds.com/ on 9/1/2022. As of today (6/1/2022), Trump leads with 37.2% and Biden is second with 15.2%.
Meta comment: this is one of a series of markets to try out different suggestions discussed in https://manifold... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9401314620877474, "platformFee": 0.13293476023043635, "liquidityFee": 0.797608561382618} | 0 | 1662039615061 | 100.79760856138262 | jack | 1662039599017 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438015}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489149}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "r... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "magaland", "predictions-on-predictions", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1662034396216 | 1662039596589 | False | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2525967096852201 | ypog1zeUmYGlEIMTvrK8 | {"NO": 94.87993636397987, "YES": 127.90580223692241} | 0 | will-tron-lightcycle-power-run-open | 110 | Will Tron Lightcycle Power Run open at Walt Disney World before September 5th, 2022? | 1662415081695 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.622348685687477 | True | play | NO | public | 1654137578049 | Nathaniel Lovin | This questions resolves to YES if Tron Lightcycle Power Run at Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World in Orlando Florida opens on or before September 5th, 2022 to the general public (not for AP/DVC/Cast member previews). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7463199122529454, "platformFee": 0.19456356350241985, "liquidityFee": 1.1673813810145193} | 0 | 1662415081695 | 101.16738138101452 | NathanielLovin | 1661418782870 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548814}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1661418782789 | 0.20044866760735977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3530711918126799 | IILcom98MUGiB7lPp62K | {"NO": 33.99807692646971, "YES": 713.8043110811858} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-me-to-filter-ou | 1334.0822582061558 | Will Manifold allow me to filter out markets on the homepage that I've already bet on? | 1672552740000 | OOlXfxzezDgMmfcp28nAjJGT3Yn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.923476354689051 | True | play | NO | public | 1654138585218 | ewired | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.022419116943059, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246} | 0 | 1673535085162 | 120.49180327868852 | ewired | 1672558855845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhSqMxXsUz71okhLk5M--aSRzr9vrVTK9f-mgfW=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557353}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1672550498713 | 1672558854041 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4000987268301665 | bkfATbMupK95Mq92kpvN | {"NO": 40.75047393913381, "YES": 395.407933522148} | 0 | will-kenny-pickett-start-week-1-for | 381.4514209575134 | Will Kenny Pickett start Week 1 for the Pittsburgh Steelers? | 1662915600000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4738726970972134 | True | play | NO | public | 1654142458714 | David Glidden | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.942685724703933, "platformFee": 0.09640294241358172, "liquidityFee": 0.5784176544814903} | 0 | 1663380899698 | 100.57841765448148 | dglid | 1662884065812 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405320}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.4 | 1662884065602 | 1662409833164 | 0.06431390039906543 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.503537127677535 | Co7v1EOmlrM1BWruDGX3 | {"NO": 23.017003415487807, "YES": 477.7175847556722} | 0 | will-a-link-to-this-market-appear-i | 502.9160569740708 | Will a link to this market appear in Above The Fold in June? | 1656658740000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7114702626476883 | True | play | NO | public | 1654142913094 | Conflux | Resolves YES if a link to this market appears in the Manifold “Above the Fold” newsletter in any of the instances of it sent out in June, 2022. Resolves NO otherwise.
Based on James's comment on https://manifold.markets/activity?u=bcongdon&s=will-a-screenshot-of-this-market-ap | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.22206215871685, "platformFee": 0.4992927703354905, "liquidityFee": 2.995756622012943} | 0 | 1656680665599 | 102.99575662201295 | Conflux | 1656658153326 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656658153204 | 1654196468347 | 0.04659094805716997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3aTEOVYZ68S2ipHZVGFR | what-will-be-my-favorite-book-this | 126.21343596944885 | What will be my favorite book this year? | 1672559940000 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837977873182295 | True | play | 415abcd8fb8e | public | 1654146235895 | Alice | What will be my favorite book I read in 2022? Please send suggestions!
So far, these are the books I read or am reading:
The Art of Happiness in a Troubled World
Braiding Sweetgrass
Call Us What We Carry
City Lights Pocket Poets Anthology
The Design of Everyday Things
The Food Lab
Four Thousand Weeks
House of Light
Mi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672629824924 | 700 | Alice | 1672794974735 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "936479269f24", "prob": 0.2504344452952474, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.412890827368255, "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.173355810034256, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3aTEOVYZ68S2ipHZVGFR", "createdTime": 1654146235963, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559138}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659378620414}] | ["books", "recommendations"] | 1671905262155 | 1672794971413 | {"415abcd8fb8e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06693729108720876 | PchMlsEZoIGhg4QxOW2P | {"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223} | 1 | will-resolve-nah-yeah | 100 | will resolve nah yeah | 1654152258433 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.125090873627006 | True | play | YES | public | 1654152246630 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969} | 0 | 1654152258433 | 100.00010871690215 | Electricitypipe | 1654152255074 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654152253698 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4585290032153741 | 7kLeBCTR9SSxp0bh9xp5 | {"NO": 2013.4638561343206, "YES": 6.518360946032942} | 1 | will-it-be-possible-to-fully-edit-t | 2809.457659050134 | Will it be possible to fully edit the market description? | 1654377403495 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.886035387208006 | True | play | YES | public | 1654160450477 | Milli | This market resolves YES.
The line above this said "This market resolves NO." at market creation. When it changes before market close this market resolves YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.21047283046901, "platformFee": 4.035078805078169, "liquidityFee": 24.21047283046901} | 0 | 1654377403495 | 124.210472830469 | Milli | 1654377664945 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 10 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654377272264 | 1654377658128 | 0.9830410105990915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06693729108720876 | sQfiqDC3KixqBjSUh2gF | {"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223} | 1 | wound-licking | 100 | wound licking | 1654166000836 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.125090873627006 | True | play | YES | public | 1654165986662 | Undox | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969} | 0 | 1654166000836 | 100.00010871690215 | Undox | 1654165996992 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654165995703 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.502044950192214 | 1ABuInSEmspLYg1QpD8G | {"NO": 239.54791003951067, "YES": 43.940753563438236} | 1 | will-california-ab-2221-accessory-d | 140 | Will California AB 2221 "Accessory dwelling units" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | 1664492400000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.077746049401461 | True | play | YES | public | 1654167339146 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AB 2221 is a bill authored by Sharon Quirk-Silva and sponsored by California YIMBY to clarify that accessory dwelling units are allowed to be added to new multifamily housing as it is contructed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3862188335102008, "platformFee": 0.18682577460416422, "liquidityFee": 1.1209546476249852} | 0 | 1664725339566 | 101.12095464762498 | Tetraspace | 1664725352103 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1663748759566}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467106}, {"name": "YIMBY", "slug": "yimby", "userId": "8kaVO... | ["politics-default", "california", "yimby"] | 0.5 | 1664397599403 | 1664725337340 | 0.8460682969835226 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.750577017540461 | K2I88IebAEFmhoMOZlar | {"NO": 439.68581577238217, "YES": 211.41175415835926} | 1 | what-percentage-of-my-player-charac | 190 | What percentage of my player characters will survive in this weekend's RPG convention? | 1654387590143 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8258429242160097 | True | play | YES | public | 1654171709234 | Matt P | I'm attending an RPG convention this weekend, mainly focused on old school D&D. I am playing in a total of 7 scheduled games, mostly old school D&D but with a few odd games out scattered in there (Savage Worlds, Mork Borg, DCC).
What percentage of characters played by me will survive the weekend? Resolves to the % equ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.885105365706242, "platformFee": 0.314184227617707, "liquidityFee": 1.885105365706242} | 0 | 1654387590143 | 251.88510536570624 | MattP | 1654387569746 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.75 | 1654367689587 | 1654387568195 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ySWSNsaLVaXMH70wEsVt | who-will-win-the-2022-auckland-mayo | 109.92594623688825 | Who will win the 2022 Auckland mayoral election? | 1665140340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.848107622151623 | True | play | 67409d44c4c8 | public | 1654171812638 | N.C. Young | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666010015005 | 339.99999999999994 | NcyRocks | 1674187001825 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b6f8658fe8bb", "prob": 0.27679250476401773, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.63454407374478, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.46297947707077, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ySWSNsaLVaXMH70wEsVt", "createdTime": 1654171812713, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 3 | 3 | [{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1658529439473}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513257}] | ["nz-politics", "politics-default"] | 1664519444617 | 1674186996615 | {"67409d44c4c8": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45 | 0cVabsdAP7Lj1NS6wpEk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-the-hunters-call-faction-win-t | 0 | Will the Hunter's Call faction win the Battle for Golden Sands in the current Sea of Thieves adventure? | 1654747140000 | 7YgzGK9063Owi8uklPSJpgG3rwE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8005946689290715 | True | play | YES | public | 1654173272060 | littlebubulle | This market resolves to YES if Hunters Call win or NO is Servants of the Flame win. N/A if for some reason neither faction wins.
There is currently an adventure/event in the video game Sea Of Thieves where the playerbase get to determine which of two factions will influence the fate of the island of Golden Sands.
The... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654797300591 | 100 | littlebubulle | 1654173272060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5017697345179148 | fnNUOysbsRNshDkfw617 | {"NO": 93.36471258739276, "YES": 117.50195352783948} | 0.44 | will-i-recover-quickly-from-my-vase | 140.4679779578352 | Will I recover quickly from my vasectomy? | 1657666187971 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.686873646473901 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654175050320 | Martin Randall | Numeric market based on how many days until I can resume normal life. Probably the most strenuous part of that is playing with my kids.
100% = back to normal after 1 day or less
75% = back to normal after 2 days
50% = back to normal after 4 days
25% = back to normal after 8 days
0% = back to normal after 16 days or mo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7086522893101406, "platformFee": 0.3986101949847865, "liquidityFee": 2.391661169908719} | 0 | 1657666187971 | 102.3916611699087 | MartinRandall | 1657666176266 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 1657666176123 | 1657286882721 | 0.44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4896560216839654 | InF329e5dz7TIRoEebcE | {"NO": 343.1007291304165, "YES": 31.641592663462056} | 1 | how-long-will-i-continue-the-smtm-p | 752.0342254670339 | How long will I continue the SMTM potato diet? | 1656326718025 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3157832178839906 | True | play | YES | public | 1654175790776 | ^,^ Épi | I've recently started the SMTM potato diet ( https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/ ). It's only been two days, but for now I'm not feeling awesome. The potatoes takes a lot of time to cook, and as I have a high metabolism, I seem to need to eat plenty a day (about double... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.976839701117856, "platformFee": 0.5709627335129039, "liquidityFee": 3.4257764010774228} | 0 | 1656326718025 | 103.42577640107741 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1656352059266 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 10 | 0 | [{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1658529539765}] | ["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions"] | 0.5 | 1655716717604 | 1656352055037 | 0.9123098241504806 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5522039220112949 | mLT2sTbWh1lka6pyREpd | {"NO": 993.6158137942155, "YES": 1002.5072464246758} | 0.5500000000000003 | will-ehardings-market-will-any-demo | 518.7666224744056 | Will EHarding's market "Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?" resolve accurately? | 1956492000000 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.682002452116338 | False | basic | public | 1654177646620 | aps | https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-any-democratic-state-legalize
This resolves YES if by my best judgement the linked market resolution matches reality when it resolves, eg. it resolves YES and this has happened, or it resolves NO and this has not happened.
If the mechanism in the other market which coul... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8970534981431015, "platformFee": 0.1495089163571836, "liquidityFee": 0.8970534981431015} | 0 | 1000 | aps | 1701238979280 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1670841634915}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1", "groupId": "aWVjDve... | ["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "metaforecasting"] | 0.5 | 1701238976868 | 1701238978750 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5115846492297544 | 6h57qz1Poo6bsKnokEGn | {"NO": 392.9688609345348, "YES": 29.607445248134503} | 1 | will-manifold-allow-turning-off-not | 301 | Will Manifold allow turning off notifications? | 1655232089528 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.466173242323334 | True | play | YES | public | 1654179440190 | Gigacasting | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4174100009979353, "platformFee": 0.40290166683298917, "liquidityFee": 2.4174100009979353} | 0 | 1655232089528 | 102.41741000099792 | Gigacasting | 1655197814324 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1655197790220 | 1655197810037 | 0.9328960836313235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6533315282511356 | Idoi28vOPWialR33vKyt | {"NO": 306.7499006648002, "YES": 57.741782173337455} | 1 | will-i-do-seven-or-more-pomodoros-o | 207 | Will I do seven or more pomodoros of work today? | 1654199784947 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3308484965997476 | True | play | YES | public | 1654185225602 | Charlie | This market resolves to YES if at the end of the day I have recorded seven pomodoros of work.
Last ten work days:
pomodoro goal/pomodoros completed
5/5 (most recent)
4/4
3/7
6/6
5/12
11/21
16/16
12/12
8/8
6/6
5/5 (least recent)
Notes: Last time I had to do 7 I failed pretty hard. Starting a bit late but still have ple... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5005960111993573, "platformFee": 0.2500993351998929, "liquidityFee": 1.5005960111993573} | 0 | 1654199784947 | 101.50059601119936 | Charlie | 1654198458884 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1664814192951}] | ["charlies-hack-days"] | 0.65 | 1654198457531 | 0.9091885823101206 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | wHV6Jh1VWz63tQy5FyDo | {"NO": 770.1549134191835, "YES": 12.984400704014192} | 1 | will-california-ab-2097-residential | 1344.4532392575568 | Will California AB 2097 "Residential and commercial development: parking requirements" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | 1663929668214 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.571161295077236 | True | play | YES | public | 1654186277518 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AB 2097 is a bill authored by Laura Friedman, co-authored by Weiner, Skinner and Lee, and sponsored by California YIMBY that eliminates parking minimums for housing in areas within half a mile of public transit. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4524886877828055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663929668214 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1663926620653 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "YIMBY", "slug": "yimby", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "XdplZbYjYVLDXFMis4TU", "createdTime": 1663782057187}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511536}, {"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVO... | ["politics-default", "yimby", "california"] | 0.5 | 1663926616924 | 1663893246593 | 0.9834200627272154 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06818178114758411 | kUS0sgUZsI3FHyt9RdgF | {"NO": 227.99999831241342, "YES": 3.607221252536874e-05} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-to-yes | 128 | Will this market resolve to yes? | 1654189324475 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.169588863826451 | True | play | YES | public | 1654189305175 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0125519367818469e-05, "platformFee": 1.6875865613030783e-06, "liquidityFee": 1.0125519367818469e-05} | 0 | 1654189324475 | 100.00001012551937 | IsaacKing | 1654189321414 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654189319490 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6531587392634427 | yEnAo3UwIF5DnVRCdo3v | {"NO": 1212.2993766806483, "YES": 237.57985646890387} | 1 | will-manifold-allow-us-to-create-bl | 1160.0454296076896 | Will Manifold allow us to create blogposts by the end of 2022? | 1669443657650 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1342021286278312 | True | play | YES | public | 1654190000447 | Enopoletus Harding | If this is going to be a social media site, it would be best to add blogposts. Can be free, once per day, one per week, or cost 100 mana or cost 1000 mana -it would still, imo, be beneficial to have this feature. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.563893676231705, "platformFee": 0.7411347118769686, "liquidityFee": 4.446808271261811} | 0 | 1669443657650 | 424.44680827126183 | EnopoletusHarding | 1669561530023 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1669392841318 | 1669561528237 | 0.9057423864462657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8615143485989051 | ta4Cxxr11Kn41y8LmtIq | {"NO": 86078.36034153018, "YES": 291.88102153937507} | 1 | this-market-will-have-traded-m25000 | 262737.37979316304 | This market will have traded >M$250,000 in volume before the end of the month. | 1656558060497 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | -0.09390424937647968 | True | basic | YES | public | 1654191039308 | GeorgeVii | Last target was way too easy. Lets 10x it
Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 375.3160870906476, "platformFee": 16.519153095610747, "liquidityFee": 99.11491857366451} | 0 | 1656558060497 | 1588.7329010918193 | GeorgeVii | 1715875341090 | 0 | 66 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1715875341090}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.5 | False | 1656555579212 | 1656559645226 | 0.999455224613516 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02279774287580945 | 7YFLd1GAqCSgi7KLglJq | {"NO": 40.2837938610829, "YES": 750.5954013943544} | 0 | will-tron-lightcycle-power-run-open-bab1737a41bd | 3671.6080578559513 | Will Tron Lightcycle Power Run open at Walt Disney World on or before January 1st, 2023? | 1672598792740 | nwkoY4jyJ7XGLxcifXevClNIf542 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1654191099677 | Nathaniel Lovin | This questions resolves to YES if Tron Lightcycle Power Run at Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World in Orlando Florida opens on or before January 1st, 2023 to the general public (not for AP/DVC/Cast member previews).
See also https://manifold.markets/NathanielLovin/will-tron-lightcycle-power-run-open | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.29764473460710367, "platformFee": 0.04960745576785061, "liquidityFee": 0.29764473460710367} | 0 | 1672598792740 | 140.2976447346071 | NathanielLovin | 1670326010224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw672dayHddBuJS6RyIdoRQHTgsrMCf0Cg6vMmP=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0.75 | 1670326006551 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500519734342652 | 2JuagU2ou8Ca8rGr9vHj | {"NO": 123.66177068607635, "YES": 83.166999018988} | 0.5983941458812265 | in-september-what-will-be-the-commu | 28 | In September, what will be the community prediction for "Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040" | 1662039560745 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7646773654297814 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654191238387 | Jack | Resolves to the community prediction on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/humanmachine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ on 9/1/2022.
This question asks about whether an AI will be able to outscore humans on a generalized intelligence test whose questions are designed to advantage the humans (see the link for more de... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6959958033680244, "platformFee": 0.1159993005613374, "liquidityFee": 0.6959958033680244} | 0 | 1662039560745 | 100.69599580336802 | jack | 1662039071962 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443180}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908177}] | ["technology-default", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1662034891806 | 1662039069660 | False | 0.5983941458812265 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5004454793508767 | VEp3FKkso0GlcxFALp26 | {"NO": 377.7108952988533, "YES": 35.87871026237221} | 1 | will-fridays-xkcd-have-more-than-1 | 570.3494699896215 | Will Friday's XKCD have more than 1 panel? | 1654295730551 | pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1349472181422295 | True | play | YES | public | 1654194826068 | samanddeanus | Will the XKCD for Friday June 3, 2022 have more than one (1) panel (including nested panels)? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.224719403543773, "platformFee": 1.3707865672572959, "liquidityFee": 8.224719403543773} | 0 | 1654295730551 | 108.22471940354377 | samanddeanus | 1654294499715 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654294498368 | 1654294295649 | 0.9133915214612779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | hSUl1oaKshGP95T7WKFw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-the-2013-mac-pro-officially-su | 0 | Will the 2013 mac pro officially support macOS 13? | 1654534800000 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | NO | public | 1654196114567 | Passion Fruit | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654542717645 | 100 | PassionFruit | 1654196114567 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452381}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NaNIvAob4gibFWOvEBmX | which-markets-will-appear-in-above | 1309.2705229596982 | Which Markets will appear in Above the Fold in June? | 1656661873263 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.71171246277184 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654196207732 | Milli | The Manifold Markets newsletter features several markets every time by link or screenshot. Every mention is equally valuable to this market.
I will resolve MULTI equally for each market mentioned in June newsletters.
In case of multiple mentions I will resolve in favor of the oldest one.
Newsletter:
https://news.mani... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.306536495787505, "platformFee": 2.576634123946876, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656661873263 | 1340 | Milli | 1656662004412 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d7bea8b3e9de", "prob": 0.041220200457925675, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5555447760746813, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.921943685965614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NaNIvAob4gibFWOvEBmX", "createdTime": 1654196207941, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1656658444641 | 1656661993572 | {"4f605ff8b664": 12.484720221399094, "57e8a41d64be": 12.606958450206344, "871f3707557b": 12.484720221399094, "be8f5e2a7988": 12.484720221399094, "c98d832fe128": 12.484720221399094, "de45e0c57d2f": 12.484720221399094, "e0f266223a3e": 12.484720221399094, "e4d3906848d6": 12.484720221399094} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4997265974907295 | AVvdgVpBZdM85jWQa5Uc | {"NO": 71.02241093368879, "YES": 151.44915145842032} | 0.3190050253528953 | have-i-had-covid | 128.2432360563602 | Have I had COVID? | 1654840740000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7719874124037283 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654199445419 | Scott Lawrence | Have I had a (presumably asymptomatic) case of COVID? I had a headache once in the last few years, and tested negative. I've never tested positive or had any cold-like symptoms (since Jan 2020) that I can recall. I have had social contact (an extended dinner) with someone who was recovering, and could potentially have ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.845674911316961, "platformFee": 0.3076124852194935, "liquidityFee": 1.845674911316961} | 0 | 1654848260589 | 101.84567491131696 | ScottLawrence | 1654845280048 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654402458296 | 1654845278149 | 0.3190050253528953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1732286018331104 | qRQutvk4VZAKL0gw8pi9 | {"NO": 102.77571851281546, "YES": 635.6860575141211} | 0 | will-timnit-gebru-and-phil-torres-p | 568.6795751509661 | Will Timnit Gebru and Phil Torres publicly engage in a major argument with each other before the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.099569026904735 | True | play | NO | public | 1654200416471 | Peter Berggren | This question resolves to "YES" if Timnit Gebru and Phil Torres publicly engage in a major argument with each other before the end of the year 2022, here defined as one of the following:
An in-person, audio, or video conversation, recorded with the intent of public viewing or listening, in which Gebru criticizes a poi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9535872117184241, "platformFee": 0.1589312019530707, "liquidityFee": 0.9535872117184241} | 0 | 1672590654178 | 140.95358721171843 | PeterBerggren | 1672546097481 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454541}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.2 | 1672546096280 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
t1aFzDGkqC8gY6GYXnst | what-nerfsbuff-will-be-included-in | 20 | What Nerfs/Buff will be included in the next SBB patch | 1654833540000 | 5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.962206060634121 | True | play | 3e17a3f24b03 | public | 1654200619674 | Sapphire Star | Will extra weight sufficiently specific predict. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654955049778 | 260 | SapphireStar | 1654200675344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e7a71c54eb29", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.8446708789263, "userId": "5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.13165518672758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "t1aFzDGkqC8gY6GYXnst", "createdTime": 1654200619776, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | 1654200673897 | 1654200662641 | {"3e17a3f24b03": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RuIIpa9TRAFVf2WbcM3i | what-die-will-i-also-roll | 46 | What die will I also roll? | 1656172740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.908757519693453 | True | play | 44c6b25f1d6f | public | 1654203008441 | Duncn | I will roll a die based on this market: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-die-will-i-roll
I will also roll one die that is not listed as a choice in that market, but that I currently own AND is listed here. In the case of no eligible dice, I will Select NONE as the winning choice. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.64, "platformFee": 1.16, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656193699163 | 400 | Duncn | 1656201555247 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "30b82f556a55", "prob": 0.46913116907487334, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.24079142812901, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 42.14167958007077, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RuIIpa9TRAFVf2WbcM3i", "createdTime": 1654203008525, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 1655936742351 | 1656201553111 | {"44c6b25f1d6f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24997544513934905 | PHk8JnFaMTfJl9EaTN6b | {"NO": 102.35460845549991, "YES": 94.98137441415815} | 1 | -c8811f6019c7 | 21.607101033743596 | Люґ¶щ∆ф₴хшщ∆ют чжжж,?? | 1654341182664 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6855139402875343 | True | play | YES | public | 1654204250414 | Mr Stone | ЛO̮̝̫ю̨̤̮̦͈͖̝̳ґ̱̙¶̖͎щ̶̰̥̘̠͙͎̜∆̛̲̣ф̻₴̭х̧̠̻͚(̫ш̟̥̪̜̘̲̩щ̪̬́)͍̲̖͝x͎͙̮͙̬̝#̧͇̲̼̗͖̦∆̦̫͜ю͡т̶̰̪̠̺̝ ̧ч̪̫̼̥̞̤̻̀ж͏̬ж̞̺̰͎͇́ж̬͖̀,̪̫̠̻̭̺̬?̲͞?̭͍ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22974306453904647, "platformFee": 0.038290510756507745, "liquidityFee": 0.22974306453904647} | 0 | 1654341182664 | 100.22974306453905 | stone | 1654262634446 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654262634243 | 0.26425272854549103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7486463915102902 | JgKFm7Auie5FqWcaAf07 | {"NO": 30470.147328309424, "YES": 14.60519592007861} | 1 | this-market-will-have-traded-m99999 | 100484.05619458074 | This market will have traded >M$99,999 in volume before the end of the month. | 1655509356083 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.7548594535299 | True | basic | YES | public | 1654204559603 | SneakySly | Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.
My last market was a huge success so we are ramping up the difficulty. If we reach the end of the month and have not gotten there resolves NO. Otherwise immediately resolves YES when I see that we have met the threshold. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 96.24661394764051, "platformFee": 12.80175064008182, "liquidityFee": 76.81050384049092} | 0 | 1655509356083 | 1081.6441027768042 | SneakySly | 1655509301811 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.5 | 1655509301682 | 1655496381961 | 0.9998390943345428 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2524674640048052 | M1sDB6UPkbM20PNPDYIA | {"NO": 116.01198984249854, "YES": 80.55441868725481} | 0.3272311814350062 | how-old-are-we-on-average | 133.13429094623277 | How old are we on average? | 1654811940000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.541943779552299 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654205017123 | Mr Stone | If you're older, say yes, if you're younger, say no. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654917629046 | 102.90668709835619 | stone | 1654719558869 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1654719557535 | 1654448299239 | 0.3272311814350061 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5224934254353346 | eEbqKD4vTsufiuw03hRa | {"NO": 427.5936541226031, "YES": 43.10722859480839} | 1 | will-bitcoin-be-at-least-30000-at-1-6d472ed3ffd1 | 1237.6864478470013 | Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59 on Wed Jun 8 | 1654757940000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9150641756754645 | True | play | YES | public | 1654205216697 | Alex Rockwell | As measured by coinmarketcap average price. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.689911084715444, "platformFee": 2.448318514119241, "liquidityFee": 14.689911084715444} | 0 | 1654758296084 | 114.68991108471543 | AlexRockwell | 1654758314297 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654751655592 | 1654758310353 | 0.9156390106684019 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5327708275287216 | JqLVkd1dGyTkcHXDHzCm | {"NO": 680.7659878340439, "YES": 29.66343047618652} | 1 | -2633d0943dd5 | 1335.7483256102896 | 📈❔ | 1654290000000 | k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4142199900744967 | True | play | YES | public | 1654205568799 | d6e | Jun 2, 2:33pm: 🇺🇸
Close date updated to 2022-06-03 2:00 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.434574677410438, "platformFee": 2.405762446235073, "liquidityFee": 14.434574677410438} | 0 | 1654297552618 | 114.43457467741042 | d6e | 1654297645876 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654289982145 | 1654297643726 | 0.963193331767525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OQBC2bRYE8OjJIDzEnOu | how-many-songs-off-her-new-album-wi | 955.563639551803 | How many songs off her new album will Reina del Cid play when I see her perform whenever the concert gets rescheduled to? | 1669699092942 | q1s9tDmCqoYYDFNjB4of25ZwqZh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6650342461904835 | True | play | 5f75565d44b5 | public | 1654206321429 | Griffin Wolf | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to see a musician I like perform in late July. I'm not sure if this tour is explicitly linked to the new album but it came out close to the beginning of the tour at least. The album, Candy Apple Red, is a mix of older and newer material, ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669699092942 | 679.9999999999999 | GriffinWolf | 1669526409616 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgmmU_luJG08wRAYDkaS3BJeacUmJ4ZWWCegiI=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a444861f5c7c", "prob": 0.010488469351175077, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.07641915225068019, "userId": "q1s9tDmCqoYYDFNjB4of25ZwqZh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.209596537171014, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OQBC2bRYE8OjJIDzEnOu", "createdTime": 1654206321507, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "q1s9tDmCqoYYDFNjB4of25ZwqZh2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664158670300}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "q1s9tDmCqoYYDFNjB4of25ZwqZh2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664158650323}, {"name": "Music", "slug":... | ["culture-default", "fun", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 1669526361300 | 1669526407755 | {"5f75565d44b5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fHpo8oValGGgMEFuEhfp | how-many-times-will-i-organically-a | 72.20388557673267 | How many times will I organically (and explicitly) use the quadratic formula this year? | 1656692296254 | qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.977998316648815 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654210675695 | 1 | Organically meaning "not intentionally looking up 'quadratic formula problems', or problems with the sole intention of farming for this market".
Although, if this this poll incentivizes me to, for example, actually try to study abstract algebra/do more math competition-esque problems, and the quadratic formula happen... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.448155423069307, "platformFee": 0.11203885576732675, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656692296254 | 520 | 1 | 1655779313716 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "42f98d74944e", "prob": 0.771927268968173, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.38541732686274, "userId": "qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.454934153610354, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fHpo8oValGGgMEFuEhfp", "createdTime": 1654210675864, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1655779312489 | 1654302266159 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5133687643980652 | NwglgiA0t5q7dMCJXeCu | {"NO": 5149.957619137314, "YES": 4.877969832999284} | 1 | testing-liquidity-injection-and-pay | 5000 | testing liquidity injection and payouts | 1654211797291 | CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.582511443689211 | True | play | YES | public | 1654211311119 | Jack2 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2542851761160203, "platformFee": 0.042380862686003384, "liquidityFee": 0.2542851761160203} | 0 | 1654211797291 | 150.254285176116 | Jack2 | 1654211723163 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654211721748 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7537025640245139 | VxkUlW0W36P6iHs52MHW | {"NO": 4874.217825921267, "YES": 48.94750210194943} | 1 | test-2-liquidity-injection-and-payo | 5003.284992135908 | test 2 liquidity injection and payouts | 1654212139495 | CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.092179775960958 | True | play | YES | public | 1654211974543 | Jack2 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9681853930276544, "platformFee": 0.1613642321712757, "liquidityFee": 0.9681853930276544} | 0 | 1654212139495 | 150.96818539302768 | Jack2 | 1654212135978 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 1654212134739 | 0.75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | jZbWrBniJYC1uLDeGF1w | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-08e7e2d2150e | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654215160145 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654215143312 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654215160145 | 100.01704414600928 | unit_24601 | 1654215150022 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654215148738 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | IGcg6zSbYwGfIAVMQ1Vc | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-a53fba15e2ae | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654215193528 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654215185145 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654215193528 | 100.01704414600928 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1654215189224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654215189009 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5017009306884243 | n0p3U2fsJF6kkAvOKUXq | {"NO": 147.84954864593777, "YES": 70.27786930699936} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-89be8bd26d89 | 48 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654215232710 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.805741391821881 | True | play | YES | public | 1654215217444 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9027081243731192, "platformFee": 0.15045135406218657, "liquidityFee": 0.9027081243731192} | 0 | 1654215232710 | 100.90270812437312 | SayJarva | 1654215229794 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654215227937 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1566098569009914 | tpN37iSkSmLGWNscRtq4 | {"NO": 361.44685967164656, "YES": 5768.491083120735} | 0 | will-anyone-successfully-contest-on | 5574.596439862959 | Will anyone successfully contest one of my resolution decisions in 2022? | 1672484340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5296622139519638 | True | play | NO | public | 1654221768233 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO by default, YES if: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- there is a poll on Manifold itself or the official Manifold Discord where a majority of voters take issue with the way I handled a marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.118326501487899, "platformFee": 0.48812788451616906, "liquidityFee": 2.928767307097014} | 0 | 1672610268815 | 582.928767307097 | NcyRocks | 1672611032486 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1672612388002}] | ["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution"] | 0.25 | 1672473266020 | 1672611029945 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4910968981310984 | qqa09iUOE3QhY7Jsdimh | {"NO": 11.050802160070248, "YES": 1176.5229854524384} | 0 | will-zvi-mowshowitz-forget-to-accou | 1232.5331972892527 | Will Zvi Mowshowitz forget to account for the Fourth of July in one of his Covid posts? | 1656599628696 | fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.858933034972609 | True | play | NO | public | 1654222833477 | J. F. Jurchen | Resolves yes if Zvi acknowledges forgetting about the July 4 holiday in a post before the question close time. Resolves no if that doesn't happen. Resolves no early if he explicitly takes it into account. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.6232393313767375, "platformFee": 0.7831896594469925, "liquidityFee": 4.699137956681955} | 0 | 1656599628696 | 104.699137956682 | jfjurchen | 1656599616737 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 1656599583261 | 1656599616423 | 0.27169772488445076 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WligHKTLNaIKUtcb6gOA | about-how-much-do-you-think-i-could | 12 | About how much do you think I could get historians / other interested parties to reimburse me the cost of resurrecting a random stranger from the past? | 1655821179291 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.982845296966577 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654224266387 | Em ✨ | an important corollary to https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/poll-would-you-resurrect-a-stranger | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.999999999999999, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655821179291 | 300 | hamnox | 1654459751845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f68553930946", "prob": 0.7971938775510204, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.250715100453405, "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.274981921555344, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WligHKTLNaIKUtcb6gOA", "createdTime": 1654224266484, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1654459750299 | 1654443186645 | {"6da843078979": 16.666666666666668, "be69db4b66a9": 16.666666666666668, "e9b18eece51d": 16.666666666666668, "f26b0cd28ca3": 50} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.356429746763662 | 9bzUC1mXEAYZTF9TjFYh | {"NO": 748.8706248595265, "YES": 4.189378317068318} | 1 | will-tesla-have-a-live-demo-of-an-o | 11609.451414895313 | Will Tesla have a live demo of an Optimus robot at AI day Sept 30th? | 1664588057692 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.146656247702513 | True | play | YES | public | 1654224342955 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if it happens. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.424103113248695, "platformFee": 0.2951788115714403, "liquidityFee": 1.771072869428642} | 0 | 1664588057692 | 245.16097710288284 | BTE | 1710451913419 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 65 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Tesla AI Day", "slug": "tesla-ai-day", "groupId": "e6... | ["technology-default", "ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla-ai-day"] | 0.5 | 1664587952039 | 1664494134356 | 0.9899999999999998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06693729108720876 | JDxJWsF1fk2DAJPGj8cX | {"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223} | 1 | will-resolve-yea | 100 | Will resolve Yea | 1654237228179 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.125090873627006 | True | play | YES | public | 1654237215942 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969} | 0 | 1654237228179 | 100.00010871690215 | Electricitypipe | 1654237223961 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654237222562 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6500594635095915 | bGStylNQuXGhxvQlCmn3 | {"NO": 100.38090690056137, "YES": 100.38090690056134} | 1 | will-toffee-upload-a-video-titled-h | 816.1804809634808 | Will Toffee upload a video titled "How to LTC fire emblem without being good at fire emblem" in 2022 | 1669422837270 | 6Yv4H6izYfV3vxm7s7CLXfM253s1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0386913801555253 | True | play | YES | public | 1654243328231 | ussgordoncaptain | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The exact title may have the words \"low turn count\" replacing \"LTC\" and may have FE replace \"fire emblem\" and the question will still resolve as YES, also any subtitles such as (the algorithm explained) are allowed Youtube channel in question... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.707914106845822, "platformFee": 0.031741646057177254, "liquidityFee": 0.19044987634306348} | 0 | 1669422837270 | 100.19044987634307 | ussgordoncaptain | 1669422834096 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxKLGhNuKhEP1qhRAQXFmBHufu9W8Ptcth_cEFP=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.65 | 1667245311198 | 1669422832382 | 0.6500594635095915 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09210591544557074 | j7XT7Eoi5YMqRKQEz3IU | {"NO": 728.0468648884959, "YES": 1059.7631744813002} | 0.06515425797315075 | lps-is-the-leading-cause-of-depress | 1730.758795428527 | LPS is the leading cause of depression/anxiety. | 1970539140000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 7.147340108355939e-16 | 10.539065949065195 | False | basic | public | 1654244425475 | GeorgeVii | Resolves YES if: Within 10 years it is widely accepted among the scientific community that the leading cause of depression &/ anxiety are lipopolysaccharides released by gram-negative bacteria in the human GIT. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.642795223290458, "platformFee": 1.7432002504491255, "liquidityFee": 10.459201502694752} | 0 | 1000 | GeorgeVii | 1694099016292 | 1.4 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532458}] | ["science-default"] | 0.11013521754766831 | 0.5 | 1694099016145 | 1658330216652 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4817311669638409 | RjCYKRBL4H1gZWMQGacq | {"NO": 16.039753023468684, "YES": 968.6908766942416} | 0 | will-ethereum-merge-to-proof-of-sta | 2461.887612314382 | Will Ethereum merge to Proof of Stake by the end of July? | 1659304740000 | QgcNtH4CCeTnIezZGVNvv80tPbq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.297377375963689 | True | play | NO | public | 1654248327049 | crystal ball | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.550266666803354, "platformFee": 1.332909796030111, "liquidityFee": 7.997458776180664} | 0 | 1659369244486 | 107.9974587761807 | duck | 1659107771370 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665695008157}] | ["ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.5 | 1659107771249 | 1656189832363 | 0.015157545539640032 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4419372119997406 | ay26V6FMJHTS4KCdBxQU | {"NO": 119.04968076547401, "YES": 96.44636206071432} | 1 | will-the-warriors-win-game-2-of-the | 155 | Will the Warriors win Game 2 of the NBA Finals 2022? | 1654473540000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.654509494114821 | True | play | YES | public | 1654251746977 | howtodowtle | Game scheduled Sunday June 5 at 8 pm ET: https://www.nba.com/game/bos-vs-gsw-0042100402
Jun 4, 11:36pm:
Market for Game 3: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-3-of-the
Market for Game 4: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.236363063965104, "platformFee": 0.7060605106608506, "liquidityFee": 4.236363063965104} | 0 | 1654489450004 | 104.23636306396511 | howtodowtle | 1654447929660 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405087}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.44 | 1654447929467 | 0.4943127976603943 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4128258454099349 | gr7xh8959Fcwy8uNjNao | {"NO": 218.64386035128172, "YES": 4662.3395573320895} | 0 | will-tether-depeg-even-slightly-aga | 15966.32448074421 | Will Tether depeg even slightly again by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9484634579094791 | True | play | NO | public | 1654262498650 | Bolton Bailey | This resolves yes if the closing price for Tether listed by https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/historical-data/ is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2022 after June 1st. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.52117931827042, "platformFee": 0.2723425964002362, "liquidityFee": 1.6340555784014175} | 0 | 1672549546372 | 901.6340555784014 | BoltonBailey | 1672541874928 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529442286}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448904833}] | ["crypto-prices", "stablecoins"] | 0.5 | 1672541873850 | 1670725047605 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TZh13JtQ66AGRjJC4owf | what-will-the-us-cpi-inflation-repo | 196 | What will the US CPI inflation report be for May, 2022? | 1654844400000 | HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.781339644595356 | True | play | ca51bfba5509 | public | 1654263185669 | Ben | Mirrors the resolution of #Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/CPI-22MAY/markets/CPI-22MAY-T0.7 -- except that instead of a series of binary options, this market will only resolve with the single 0.1% range of the report
Answers must be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.8, "platformFee": 2.7, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654870773316 | 560 | bcongdon | 1654870647224 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8089be031e28", "prob": 0.13127494223902542, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.082456505796595, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.016064172759545, "textFts": "", "contractId": "TZh13JtQ66AGRjJC4owf", "createdTime": 1654263185761, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570709}] | ["economics-default"] | 1654805257669 | 1654870642484 | {"ca51bfba5509": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06615519578779722 | lTINNddStjGu5l5aeL1j | {"NO": 159.8678147356982, "YES": 0.07151821458943278} | 1 | i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-cfd6c5cefd65 | 60 | I will resolve this question YES | 1654265469532 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.985304966638935 | True | play | YES | public | 1654265442115 | Matt P | This question will resolve to YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7931115858107877, "platformFee": 0.1321852643017979, "liquidityFee": 0.7931115858107877} | 0 | 1654265469532 | 100.79311158581079 | MattP | 1654265465819 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654265464498 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5082379085206329 | pqty8zHtHO9VZpBs5XU5 | {"NO": 288.51998020560546, "YES": 40.25613026998861} | 1 | will-bets-actually-be-public-on-the | 217 | Will bets actually be public on the market pages by the end of the month? | 1654750963744 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1237491146519725 | True | play | YES | public | 1654272390506 | Enopoletus Harding | This question resolves to yes if bets become public by the end of the month. It resolves to no if they remain non-public. I support them becoming public; we need some way to sus out the insider traders. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.04340032665098, "platformFee": 0.5072333877751634, "liquidityFee": 3.04340032665098} | 0 | 1654750963744 | 103.043400326651 | EnopoletusHarding | 1654750935555 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654750934283 | 1654485567788 | 0.7975864384825112 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6487636229026337 | U30L0DAoptmFn8IXKxny | {"NO": 20.83131117209448, "YES": 245.01878969431647} | 0 | will-my-fremb-x-build-a-crypto-app | 187.4251383196935 | Will my fremb X build a crypto app within 3 month | 1662263940000 | 5CXwVqr0k7fI00LeUN32PXhpgu32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6841293211538995 | True | play | NO | public | 1654273990876 | Sapphire Star | Jun 3, 12:33pm: Dude is 18yo and goes to MIT. I shilled him hard. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.245695270193031, "platformFee": 0.25738658670326975, "liquidityFee": 1.5443195202196183} | 0 | 1702828280904 | 101.54431952021962 | SapphireStar | 1702828298926 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhlTqNpC_Oa_hmhgh1w4DNU-ksYyb_mAWcyU5fm=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.65 | 1662179571494 | 1702828298193 | 0.14 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25081754438155435 | 4M1d098G4FHadumzqIYe | {"NO": 75.06404881941845, "YES": 250.183588691514} | 0 | will-i-gm-a-tabletop-rpg-this-summe | 249.71357114819503 | Will I GM a tabletop RPG this summer? | 1662004740000 | sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8250392264637685 | True | play | NO | public | 1654274512898 | Juan Gil | This questions resolves to "YES" if I am the game master (GM) for any tabletop RPG (such as D&D) between now and the beginning of September 2022. Otherwise, it resolves to "NO".
Right now I'm interested in running one, but these take a fair amount of time to run well, and I need to find a group of players who want to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.673411349530655, "platformFee": 0.12714250746061925, "liquidityFee": 0.7628550447637155} | 0 | 1662055164315 | 100.76285504476371 | juan | 1661717609081 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 1661717608883 | 1660079026014 | 0.09127960581413014 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4953584234849403 | 0Oao605EZG7U3qceyIEc | {"NO": 50.85983846304184, "YES": 209.78083976968395} | 0 | will-the-2014-mac-mini-officially-s | 110 | Will the 2014 mac mini officially support macOS 13? | 1654534800000 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9673638953359767 | True | play | NO | public | 1654280529438 | Passion Fruit | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3149613818961363, "platformFee": 0.21916023031602272, "liquidityFee": 1.3149613818961363} | 0 | 1654542724078 | 101.31496138189614 | PassionFruit | 1654528266964 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529442961}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1654528266843 | 1654294631261 | 0.19223437445852892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4880141749826133 | glkPX7CaGB60BRUH8SdW | {"NO": 30.172931063760522, "YES": 384.5557218493724} | 0 | will-diablo-immortal-drop-all-p2w-e | 1745.9599695962927 | Will Diablo Immortal drop all P2W elements by December 31, 2022? | 1672527540000 | KV6q96Fl8JbXbfHXFeuA4q1Hss22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4471129386006782 | True | play | NO | public | 1654280642078 | Dark | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.492168536682216, "platformFee": 0.3905439379818902, "liquidityFee": 2.343263627891341} | 0 | 1672960845474 | 102.34326362789135 | Dark | 1667245334762 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.5 | 1667245334666 | 1655720888350 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RibgYs5ylBW3YxrNzokX | which-sexual-position-will-people-p | 15787.099252485905 | Which sexual position will people prefer most in my Twitter poll? | 1654461535386 | 9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.618333391501273 | True | basic | 6b802b87a8fa | public | 1654281296539 | Aella | I'm going to tweet "Assume you're going to have sex tonight with an attractive person who happens to love whatever sexual position you love. You can only use one of the following positions; you use:"
Answers will be missionary, doggystyle, cowgirl. and reverse cowgirl. Which one will get the most votes? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 129.67462133738752, "platformFee": 32.41865533434688, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654461535386 | 1260 | Aella | 1654460532368 | 0 | 43 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2ebb87831ebe", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RibgYs5ylBW3YxrNzokX", "createdTime": 1654281296643, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ... | [{"name": "Aella's Twitter Polls", "slug": "aellas-twitter-polls", "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "groupId": "tm5BTMEUugDBgksG76OP", "createdTime": 1669703495027}] | ["aellas-twitter-polls"] | 1654460530311 | 1654386367200 | {"6b802b87a8fa": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42742375891596185 | KEEjICqfXRd8koJ17dPx | {"NO": 110.70630787499643, "YES": 108.24855796558421} | 0 | will-the-warriors-win-game-3-of-the | 1223 | Will the Warriors win Game 3 of the NBA Finals 2022? | 1654736340000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6484631610577933 | True | play | NO | public | 1654282784236 | howtodowtle | Jun 4, 11:35pm:
Market for Game 2: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-2-of-the
Market for Game 4: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the
Jun 7, 10:10am:
Market for Game 5: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-5-of-the | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.093318931880964, "platformFee": 1.1822198219801607, "liquidityFee": 7.093318931880964} | 0 | 1654756211169 | 107.09331893188096 | howtodowtle | 1654729107073 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400417}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.4 | 1654729105696 | 0.43292693297896717 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000532717945291 | okYwC3RmLu1Q82AG5HoC | {"NO": 136.92838492255572, "YES": 91.30504380981955} | 0.63 | what-will-the-ratio-of-growth-be-be | 379.314792217076 | What will the ratio of growth be between Uniswap v3 and FTX? | 1662274740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4762200439597137 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654283860989 | Austin | I think Uniswap v3 will grow faster than centralized exchanges using limit order books, due to the Range Order mechanism providing better results. I think Stephen disagrees? So let's try to metricize this.
This market resolves to the ratio of growth in percentage points in "24h Volume Normalized" by the market close d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.5195269435137995, "platformFee": 0.9842304827563386, "liquidityFee": 5.905382896538033} | 0 | 1664839783904 | 105.90538289653803 | Austin | 1664892171864 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1664859606338}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664859611097}] | ["finance", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1662273190668 | 1664892169635 | 0.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06533262158718481 | 3U0cMQB2YCnGI6O4ptxW | {"NO": 174.99980369100433, "YES": 0.0047678196105503945} | 1 | am-i-inside | 75 | Am I inside? | 1654284861122 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.090011167162135 | True | play | YES | public | 1654284846490 | Scott Lawrence | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0011778539740353033, "platformFee": 0.00019630899567255056, "liquidityFee": 0.0011778539740353033} | 0 | 1654284861122 | 100.00117785397404 | ScottLawrence | 1654284853711 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654284852119 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5303351178067142 | C1WIj7qWcTO39Yg4KDPx | {"NO": 746.1941610293616, "YES": 20.678405707197957} | 1 | does-this-text-go-past-its-boundari | 932.6843270169073 | D̟͙̖̜̟̣ͅͅo͖̝̻̟̲̘̺̼̥̠̥͈͓̮ẹ͕͙͉̩̫͖̼͍̱̗͇s͓͉̖̻̭ ̬͍̹͙͇͈ͅt̬͔͎͚̗̯ͅh͖̭̟̻̮̩̳̗̯i̥̼̦̪̱͇͔̣͓̥̖̻̱̹̲͓̺s̭̤̪̙ ̦̩̻̫̗̰̬̘̺͎̯̹̳̙ͅt̗̼̬͔e̮̙͙͇͇͙̞̥̣x͇̖̦̭͉̜̭̳t̼̪̝͚̦̻̩͓ ̟̦̜̹͓͍͇̗̫͔͖g͎̟͈̺̼̘̮̟̳̤̯̤o̩̞͉̘̞̞͓ ͚̝̞̣̗̱̼̻̥̱̠̮͚͕̩̱͇p̺͖̬͉̯̠͙͉̝̪̬͈̘̫͕ͅͅa͙͍̟̬̰̬̙̯̫͔̪̖̤ͅs͖̙͕͔̬͈̞͖͔t̻͖͖̱̥͕͍͎̠̩̜͎̤̻̞ͅͅ ̝̥̩̺̙̰̫̪ͅi͕̥̮̘ͅt̗̝̩͕̘̥̼̳s͕͙̲̠̺̥̪̠̰̞̝͓̟̮ ̖̥̱̭͍͖̬̝͓b͖̦̞̱͍̝͉̜̦̙͚̳̱͎̩̜... | 1654898340000 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.993091798243064 | True | play | YES | public | 1654286005983 | Mr Stone | Jun 3, 9:57pm: since it does, it will resolve to YES unless changes are made to the site to prevent this at the time of resolution. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.050912570291265, "platformFee": 1.008485428381877, "liquidityFee": 6.050912570291265} | 0 | 1654917489368 | 106.05091257029122 | stone | 1654891537529 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654891536269 | 1654730720545 | 0.9760462611879407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aUg4AvHAO5sfSQ0WouFg | when-will-aiought-provide-an-approp | 50 | When will AI/Ought provide an appropriate answer to the question "What percent of Thiel Fellows come from Canada"? | 2191377540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1654286007294 | Stochastic Cockatoo | put in a year | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | StochasticParrot | 1679675974497 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "674bdef58966", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 95.40556703999101, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 119.25695879998878, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aUg4AvHAO5sfSQ0WouFg", "createdTime": 1654286007387, "probChanges": {"day": -0.55555555555... | 2 | 1679675974373 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2286853497705353 | Xh3H7wiBhr6BouaNrRiy | {"NO": 176.9540784878417, "YES": 1162.2106554629052} | 0 | will-brandon-sanderson-publish-at-l-1122a14dbbc0 | 1826.863808608918 | Will Brandon Sanderson publish at least SEVEN novels during 2023 | 1704095940000 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0658681268867936 | True | play | NO | public | 1654288363657 | Alex Rockwell | The Sanderson option chain continues :D
To count for this question, the novel must be at least 50000 words and published in a physical form which is available to the public, between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.844156278766602, "platformFee": 0.28744818506445835, "liquidityFee": 1.7246891103867499} | 0 | 1704152875812 | 301.72468911038675 | AlexRockwell | 1704152880004 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545026}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659590797652}, {"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqb... | ["culture-default", "books", "cosmere", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704090523116 | 1704152879511 | 0.04 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49794853094420505 | BfVco2nBtWjUiFycldKS | {"NO": 101.28468475626676, "YES": 107.83354016424215} | 0.29 | what-percentage-of-slime-mold-time | 143.95807060711155 | What percentage of Slime Mold Time Mold Potato Study participants will complete the study? | 1656917940000 | QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.686164143984658 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654290139107 | Eric | Currently 220 people have signed up, 23 people have ended early, and 20 have completed the fill four weeks [1]. What will the final percentage be?
Resolves as the percentage obtained by dividing the number who completed the study by the number who started it.
[1]: https://twitter.com/mold_time/status/153279522163694... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.34471903820183, "platformFee": 0.37454325862261745, "liquidityFee": 2.2472595517357044} | 0 | 1657661998938 | 102.2472595517357 | theincredibleholk | 1657661990754 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423190}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524545}] | ["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default"] | 0.5 | 1656007944131 | 1657661989087 | 0.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.518137679204322 | cTy0P3FNxvmGYVxS25vX | {"NO": 20.01178939219561, "YES": 472.5820901663816} | 0 | will-i-visit-ea-bahamas | 1236.8914398573886 | Will I visit EA Bahamas? | 1656907140000 | 15oSNgv3KJSB90SMUgqDBgY6Rfv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8554674498516146 | True | play | NO | public | 1654290178091 | Ben Cogan | This question resolves to yes if Ben Cogan visits EA Bahamas in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.976583652906832, "platformFee": 0.3161651435759177, "liquidityFee": 1.896990861455506} | 0 | 1669057900644 | 101.8969908614555 | BenCogan | 1656895434002 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ght-z7w0qOOc6khp8i9naqudFSm8o0ahgh6kuBA4Q=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 | 1656895432520 | 1654358180468 | 0.04355047807180913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24899188798303523 | lDrqftOb2ouZqToezArX | {"NO": 79.24728843998051, "YES": 219.8198011656543} | 0 | will-anyone-call-me-out-for-dressin | 120 | Will anyone call me out for dressing femme at the Phoebe Bridgers concert tomorrow? | 1654402916071 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.777252654427664 | True | play | NO | public | 1654294264814 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | Call out in this case means to say something, to either me or my partner, that is both negative and implying I don't pass. For context, I am a trans woman who is pre everything. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0811930060743187, "platformFee": 0.1801988343457198, "liquidityFee": 1.0811930060743187} | 0 | 1654402916071 | 101.08119300607433 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1654389079649 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529550088}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073366680}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k1... | ["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"] | 0.25 | 1654389078051 | 0.10676390164473853 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08566311584255659 | HMzcUoz4OBiy9Nt4afsl | {"NO": 159.5060226579769, "YES": 546.0535039779309} | 0 | will-this-research-paper-on-lipid-a | 792.2044158253393 | Will this research paper on lipid accumulation in mice be retracted? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.86545835984289 | True | play | NO | public | 1654296430183 | Research.Bet | A keen user of PubPeer has noted that key figures in the following paper may have been re-used. Specifically, Figure 3A and 7A appear to be the same.
Will this lead to the paper being retracted in 2022?
Post on PubPeer:
https://pubpeer.com/publications/15772C6EBA89AFA52F9C8DB5DB2162
The paper in question:
Cold-P... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4657684969787939, "platformFee": 0.07762808282979898, "liquidityFee": 0.4657684969787939} | 0 | 1672871788585 | 180.4657684969788 | ResearchBet | 1672544115455 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526475}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537744}] | ["researchbet", "science-default"] | 0.1 | 1672544115342 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4959016213511343 | H71n6I4Ly0AQDSSBh6jU | {"NO": 51.55330893514187, "YES": 211.67755224988716} | 0 | will-i-get-myself-kicked-out-of-sch | 112 | Will I get myself kicked out of school? | 1656513066614 | qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.94198454131465 | True | play | NO | public | 1654297634884 | 1 | I just got a notification from an administrative person at my university about an investigation into something that was concluded.
Let’s put a market on my anxiety. 😬
Closes when I see the results. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.934686500676956, "platformFee": 0.322447750112826, "liquidityFee": 1.934686500676956} | 0 | 1656513066614 | 101.93468650067695 | 1 | 1654645025789 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654645024583 | 1654307066984 | 0.19327923721056417 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4370759293689543 | 3tKF5vEXMoK8oEevbggz | {"NO": 68.51634765218556, "YES": 228.50304431358154} | 0 | will-rick-caruso-win-the-los-angele | 134.9146937487813 | Will Rick Caruso win the Los Angeles mayoral election? | 1667980740000 | JwCgB4eJYKSzqQ1uBakThflP2Af2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7038892671120998 | True | play | NO | public | 1654298118138 | upzone_CA | Question will be resolved at 11:59 on the day of the November election
YES if Rick Caruso wins
NO if he does not win
If Rick Caruso fails to qualify for November or wins outright, I will resolve the market then and there. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.29854013509926947, "platformFee": 0.04975668918321158, "liquidityFee": 0.29854013509926947} | 0 | 1672877798454 | 120.29854013509927 | upzone_CA | 1667977198593 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzXt4YBHSZJciBCj5ww9qdR8zHCx5NODA71RNiU=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | [{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1664958153300}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469088}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elec... | ["politics-default", "california", "us-2022-elections"] | 0.5 | 1667977198465 | 1665172266073 | 0.19 |
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