CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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I will resolve this market however I feel. Convince me.

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Convince me to vote YES or NO. I resolve this when my decision is made.

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Will resolve yeah ig.

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Does my friend have covid? (mixed test results, close contact with covid-positive)

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Jack

My friend Alice (name changed for privacy) had lunch last Thursday with a coworker who later tested positive on a PCR test on Saturday - they were sitting next to each other, indoors. Alice tested positive on a PCR test administered on Wed morning and tested negative on two Cue tests (rapid NAAT) earlier this week and ...

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Will I overpack or underpack?

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Alice

Today's my first trip of the 2022 backpacking and camping season! Will I overpack or underpack for my weekend trip to the Diablo Range? Overpack: I bring items I don't use. (Emergency items like personal locator beacons don't count, because I don't consider them wasted weight.) Underpack: I forget to bring items I ...

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Will I change my mind?

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^,^ Épi

I have posted a list of 16 claims along with bayesian confidence in those claims on a street epistemology server. I intend to do at least an interview every two weeks about any of those claims, and see how much I changed my opinion. Conditional on my doing at least 4 interviews in the following two months, ideally mor...

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Will any Satoshi coins be moved by 2025?

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Gigacasting

Resolves to % consensus that coins are a Satoshi address, rather than other early wallet

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How will the NFL handle Deshaun Watson in 2022?

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David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i.e. 4-game suspension, 6-game suspension, no suspension, etc. Resolved to first announcement by the NFL or by the end of the regular season if no action taken. Jun 3, 8:48pm: by the end of the 2022 regular season*", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hard...

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I will select all options with greater than 30% as correct.

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Poll: What is the best way to resolve a free response poll market?

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Martin Randall

I will resolve by picking an answer or answers such that following the instructions in that answer leads me to resolve by picking those answers. If that is not possible, I will resolve by picking the answer "Paradox". Jun 8, 6:50pm: I will disqualify any responses that are not answers to the question posed in the titl...

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Which emoji is the best?

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RoboTeddy

The top three answers will win, but I reserve the right to skip any emoji that don't seem fun. Emojis will be judged based on how they look on this site when viewed in Google Chrome on MacOS 12. Jun 11, 11:24am: Thanks for participating everyone!

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Evan Conrad

Today, someone offered to sell their Porsche 911 on the Real World Trade Protocol (https://rwtp.org). RWTP is a way to safely buy and sell physical goods with crypto-currencies. It's like decentralized chargebacks.

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Will Peter enjoy the Final Audio e2000c earphones?

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Austin

These headphones: https://www.amazon.com/Final-Audio-Design-Earphone-E2000C/dp/B0777QP7X5 Ever since discovering these, I've purchased like 5 pairs to use myself and give to friends/family. I don't know if it fully fits all the criteria, but it's pretty close: super comfortable, mid tier budget, excellent sound qualit...

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Has Manifold fixed the free question exploit yet?

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Isaac King

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N.C. Young

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I will resolve this question YES. (for all manifold-kind)

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Matt P

If you dislike this farming practice feel free to comment with a market you want me to bet on and I'll do it, no questions asked (first 4, M$25 on each). Spread the love!

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Tobias Pace

The Advance Wars reboot for the Nintendo Switch was scheduled to be released in early April, but was delayed due to "recent world events", which was generally understood to mean the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nintendo had not announced a revised release date. For reference, this is a turn based strategy game where pl...

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Austin

We're doing an offsite in Mexico City in June: https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-stay-at-mexifo And likely one in Washington DC in September: https://manifold.markets/noumena/will-i-be-part-of-a-group-renting-t But in between, we'd like to have another offsite sometime in July or August. Where and ...

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[{"name": "Manifold Offsites", "slug": "manifold-offsites", "groupId": "MXb1EY2fbQ4q7uUKPFld", "createdTime": 1658529458557}]

["manifold-offsites"]

1658968685485

1658777880951

{"5ec93c25a5f0": 100}

True

0.325657721308112

DreezzZ09K5d4ee1E64l

{"NO": 485.73699759664396, "YES": 25065.830600512636}

0

will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being

236377.60693159694

Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024?

1703980740000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

1.1035202306555193e-15

0.5807519560071839

True

basic

NO

public

1654342194103

Manifold

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.453442696732445, "platformFee": 0.7182683357701969, "liquidityFee": 4.309610014621181}

0

1704097849627

2015.3096100146213

Manifold

1710451915145

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

16

895

0

1

590

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.2918296390006279

0.25

1703978623962

1704124114578

False

0.01

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

YUslg4PsSFUvufNQholn

when-will-solanas-next-outage-occur

806

When will Solana's next outage occur?

1664701928680

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.668810275526662

True

play

4254fb492234

public

1654342810093

Manifold

Valid answers must give a month and year.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664701928680

440.00000000000017

Manifold

1664702016354

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

0

ANYONE

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2

1664594038802

1664702012017

{"4254fb492234": 100}

True

stJaG1Bph4GJmKUDLhlJ

who-will-win-the-2022-wakefield-bye

384

Who will win the 2022 Wakefield by-election?

1655938800000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.721717612950067

True

play

76bd5ce8d35d

public

1654347724771

Tetra

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.5600000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1400000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656060248946

360.00000000000006

Tetraspace

1655909686419

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c1f32cb41ccf", "prob": 0.05072640207775343, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0325324012608514, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.03599834423506, "textFts": "", "contractId": "stJaG1Bph4GJmKUDLhlJ", "createdTime": 1654347724883, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508302}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031584449}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

1655909685100

{"76bd5ce8d35d": 100}

True

4rWYmWT9T94I2G5QmCep

who-will-win-the-2022-tiverton-and

136

Who will win the 2022 Tiverton and Honiton by-election?

1655938800000

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.806910845064065

True

play

c9096b8c4de2

public

1654348253959

Tetra

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.64, "platformFee": 1.41, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656060204383

360

Tetraspace

1655909722916

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9468ee3d1868", "prob": 0.17954610744039068, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.558579089082635, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 66.526883005472, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4rWYmWT9T94I2G5QmCep", "createdTime": 1654348254345, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469536}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031518793}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

1655909721707

{"c9096b8c4de2": 100}

True

0.42822434007394916

kIxU9W5qJjARXPCJS0PF

{"NO": 1105.8236566128057, "YES": 1295.3049060450808}

0.3900135736158545

will-i-buy-a-pacaso-home-and-eventu

360.78364113055113

If I buy a Pacaso home, will I eventually come to regret it within 2 years of purchase?

1719892740000

fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2

cpmm-1

0

9.149582391426291

False

basic

public

1654350054793

David Pennock

I am considering buying 1/8 of a house through the unicorn startup Pacaso. Roughly, I buy 1/8 of an LLC and the LLC owns the home. After the sale, Pacaso does not own any part of the home, but Pacaso fully manages the home. If I don't buy through Pacaso, the claim resolves to 50% (I wish I could create a conditional cl...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.185866510686591, "platformFee": 0.3851985771451399, "liquidityFee": 2.3111914628708394}

0

1182.311191462871

DavidPennock

1711380065827

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GigaxwyNC7CJGK05wkscUAcW9fbTCZOiRPQ6V_ZVw=s96-c

16

0

13

[{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1670450014846}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGi...

["personal-decision-in-hindsight", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1711380062513

1654544386077

clxime77LjebGEK9ZJCp

which-emoji-is-the-worst

154.9428726834776

Which emoji is the worst?

1654984740000

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.796409881929668

True

play

MKT

public

1654357752291

Mr Stone

In response to this market: https://manifold.markets/TedSuzman/which-emoji-is-the-best The top three answers will win, but I reserve the right to skip any emoji that seems fun. Emojis will be judged based on how they look on this site when viewed in Firefox on Android.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.0822850926608965, "platformFee": 1.5205712731652241, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654995306271

680

stone

1654972094360

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0bd24d1d8dbe", "prob": 0.15865541144035444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.47825416274544, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.748039047738672, "textFts": "", "contractId": "clxime77LjebGEK9ZJCp", "createdTime": 1654357752529, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

1654972083953

1654972092763

{"438d30e7c0c8": 34.808136231702754, "7f156f9dc5c7": 31.643760210638867, "9d23a34e5363": 33.548103557658365}

True

0.06983712092782954

0GVt0micCQDZWeZqq5pA

{"NO": 94.63482499280082, "YES": 244.15870917721554}

0

will-microsoft-rescind-my-internshi

240

Will Microsoft rescind my internship offer?

1657833224670

t9OD9NTqu4hlXAdHmN6SvbAWGDo1

cpmm-1

0

9.199350203471756

True

play

NO

public

1654358363955

Luka Colić

Some more info: I got the offer around the 25th of May. The start date is around 20th of July. I haven't signed or received a contract yet.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.832341152240972, "platformFee": 0.0924814744066258, "liquidityFee": 0.5548888464397549}

0

1657833224670

100.55488884643975

LCEnzo

1657813594368

0

https://firebasestorage.…d0c-891d0dd802cb

9

0

0.07

1657813593115

0.02827796403957548

0.49693562383788514

ECb8KnJLh1T5KoezUnqJ

{"NO": 22.24535708380985, "YES": 510.3416229373353}

0

will-i-end-up-on-the-manifold-most

603.3468264790964

Will I end up on the Manifold 'most profit' leaderboard by July 4?

1657004340000

Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2

cpmm-1

0

3.784504976005433

True

play

NO

public

1654358573295

RoboTeddy

This question will resolve to a YES if I end up being in the top 20 accounts by total profit within the next month (By July 4) Some information for you to take into account: - I've been on Manifold for 7 days so far, and currently have a total profit of M$832. - I'm pretty well-calibrated, and have a track record of m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.872354595679608, "platformFee": 0.46144988311932034, "liquidityFee": 2.7686992987159216}

0

1657032829707

102.76869929871593

TedSuzman

1657032973028

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c

7

0

1

0.5

1656966427448

1657032968420

0.04128064304425861

0.4849831558809352

Cmzm1I9MBzWSQTu3WnVO

{"NO": 25.421632430637857, "YES": 502.46114280027575}

0

will-we-have-a-way-to-assign-other

644.1680356066265

Will we have a way to assign other trusted users to resolve our markets for us by the end of the month?

1656647940000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

3.643427307975495

True

play

NO

public

1654358953418

Enopoletus Harding

Inspired by this question: https://manifold.markets/aps/will-ehardings-market-will-any-demo If market makers or the admins are still the sole people capable of resolving markets, this market resolves to No.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.8583687289966315, "platformFee": 0.6972198291762063, "liquidityFee": 4.183318975057238}

0

1657043900617

104.18331897505725

EnopoletusHarding

1656642092078

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

14

0

1

0.5

1656642090626

1654442063173

0.04547707646580967

0.5008697819100751

44U0uLpUB1CvATg4JDJq

{"NO": 230.27530056718803, "YES": 44.8067310805542}

0.99

how-much-will-i-change-my-mind-vari

132

How much will I change my mind? (variance)

1659650340000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

3.070220876205695

True

play

MKT

public

1654360523555

^,^ Épi

Sister market of https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/will-i-change-my-mind While that one encoded mean (Do I go more generally more confident or less confident in my positions), this one will encode variance (Do I change at all?) Concretely, instead of summing bits, I will instead sum the absolute value of them: Now --- ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3215390662129596, "platformFee": 0.1193679266801902, "liquidityFee": 0.7162075600811412}

0

1659654055289

100.71620756008114

epiphanie_gedeon

1655655024403

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

1

0

1

[{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1658529539681}]

["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions"]

0.5

1655655024273

0.99

0.7478059603568461

lV5Kz0lxhvnykuvcLnzC

{"NO": 59.11684179819128, "YES": 122.32120864295231}

0

will-my-dhl-package-in-the-same-sta

40

Will my DHL package in the same state arrive, that is predicted to arrive on the 10th, arrive before the FedEx package in New Jersey, that was predicted to arrive yesterday?

1656993540000

oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2

cpmm-1

0

3.693136753090282

True

play

NO

public

1654360971285

amp!

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.33089203433432, "platformFee": 0.15368590017246972, "liquidityFee": 0.9221154010348184}

0

1659499075629

100.92211540103482

ampdot

1656953181707

0

https://firebasestorage.…422-41b6f3509ad0

2

0

1

0.75

1656953180374

0.5889944773282338

0.5272429664870052

Ov831dGlwknI1UgkX0fb

{"NO": 84.35397849466912, "YES": 163.0439013749997}

0

will-this-market-get-an-auto-resolu

967.1485610265164

Will this market get an auto resolution date?

1654984740000

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-1

0

2.4946034273560893

True

play

NO

public

1654364124184

Milli

This question resolves "YES" when it receives a date for automatic resolution before it closes. See https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio Jun 5, 1:30am: Otherwise it resolves "NO". Jun 12, 9:14pm: The parties holding YES (including me) agree that there being a database entry for the aut...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.074186059798048, "platformFee": 1.6790310099663417, "liquidityFee": 10.074186059798048}

0

1655061433999

110.31000474960608

Milli

1655059421671

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4

10

0

1

0.5

1654983717742

1655059409123

0.36588351972288424

JPKH00SBkRgPM6hhdAXN

who-will-be-the-libertarian-party-n

1023.4021523019264

Who will be the Libertarian Party nominee for president in 2024?

1716777456953

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

ed12e4b0bc8a

public

1654365586544

David Glidden

https://lpedia.org/wiki/National_Convention_2024

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.768935355127292, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716777456953

419.99999999999994

dglid

1716777456953

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "11e1a249a83f", "prob": 0.004082240289352435, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3509006921304447, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 85.60697225466465, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JPKH00SBkRgPM6hhdAXN", "resolverId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "createdTime": 1654...

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481090}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580720}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", ...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "ancient-markets"]

1716776281866

{"ed12e4b0bc8a": 100}

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

True

prob-desc

True

0.2569269200608758

p2MQoi6mBRLuVUSImMZi

{"NO": 110.74059009388193, "YES": 100.19558944007076}

0

will-dr-ps-current-trump-market-tra

241.9112724225517

Will Dr P’s current trump market trade >M$56,565 in volume before close?

1657004340000

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

3.435857450388342

True

play

NO

public

1654367978179

1

> https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-be-the-president

BINARY

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0

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1657037946366

103.99306218886642

1

1656999649128

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https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

10

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0.25

1656999647778

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Q04ZKDl5jUqvZerDBKiT

{"NO": 463.9999999999968, "YES": 6.039478250841057e-11}

1

will-this-market-resolve-yes-ccaed54c85f2

364

Will this market resolve yes?

1654368266035

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

8.496286008611401

True

play

YES

public

1654368254633

Isaac King

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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100.00000000001937

IsaacKing

1654368261226

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

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0.05

1654368261018

0.05

0.7518974144797362

eH2iAaNiDUrwLXpSK18h

{"NO": 236.85292493169416, "YES": 79.52041623837545}

1

will-the-apple-wwdc-event-be-over-a

195

Will the Apple WWDC event be over an hour long?

1654534800000

T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3

cpmm-1

0

3.7504342252612854

True

play

YES

public

1654368996154

Passion Fruit

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1220623977705273, "platformFee": 0.3536770662950879, "liquidityFee": 2.1220623977705273}

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1654541375233

102.12206239777055

PassionFruit

1654533768662

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c

8

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451329}]

["technology-default"]

0.75

1654533768487

0.9002659581920036

0.5074389118869825

gpxBekNzNL88oZ0T7TIp

{"NO": 167.1209137048528, "YES": 76.85415960711862}

0.69

what-is-the-best-from-1-to-99

289.8805450257819

What is the best % from 1 to 99?

1654498740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

2.6162223556997635

True

play

MKT

public

1654373363696

SneakySly

I will resolve this as PROB set to whatever the market has decided on resolution.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.34017274164617, "platformFee": 1.056695456941028, "liquidityFee": 6.34017274164617}

0

1654558625583

106.34017274164616

SneakySly

1654498722630

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

8

0

1

0.5

1654498720984

0.69

0.4996428956652763

Ll4QAXUObPcqVeZShWVW

{"NO": 107.42974681873783, "YES": 97.30774785925972}

1

will-i-make-a-quilt-this-year

59.86905153240469

Will I make a quilt this year?

1655779056181

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

2.729614827095979

True

play

YES

public

1654375793396

Alicorn

I keep being tempted, especially because a lot of the most beautiful fabric is technically quilting fabric, but it seems hard. Will I complete a quilting project (still counts if it's not a blanket but is some other quilted item) by the end of 2022?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1235853349691816, "platformFee": 0.18726422249486363, "liquidityFee": 1.1235853349691816}

0

1655779056181

101.12358533496919

Alicorn

1655160771453

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

4

0

0.5

1655160770700

0.5243632118667768

0.5068506167958512

GRXXJ0Ck2FHrVwQPL2Ss

{"NO": 235.63903762950116, "YES": 54.411368891742}

1

will-i-feel-comfortable-dancing-in

293.41901166058625

Will I feel comfortable dancing in a week from now despite having lost a toenail?

1654963140000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

2.812981524299803

True

play

YES

public

1654375827072

Aella

My entire big toenail got ripped off while dancing one week ago today. Will I be healed enough in one week from today (by June 11th) that I feel like I can dance at least 90% of the ease I normally dance? My current healing stage is, the toenail is still hanging on by the bottom, like a hinge. I've managed to cut off ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.059845986983661, "platformFee": 1.0099743311639433, "liquidityFee": 6.059845986983661}

0

1654966822346

106.05984598698363

Aella

1654808012372

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

15

0

1

0.5

1654808011174

1654610084586

0.8165479326430346

0.49958198456408975

7ZVLe09JV6en5CkbWc2H

{"NO": 116.60055649552486, "YES": 96.11366571432349}

1

will-steph-curry-score-40-points-in

146.02792121357118

Will Steph Curry score 40+ points in at least one game of the 2022 NBA Finals?

1654918068610

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

2.6647724524373277

True

play

YES

public

1654376433723

Richard

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.9356223251938784, "platformFee": 0.4892703875323131, "liquidityFee": 2.9356223251938784}

0

1654918068610

102.93562232519388

Richard

1654918036246

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

5

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397034}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1654918036092

0.383523031486058

0.5998241530816487

Pv0TD5F7CLbG6EHe9V2G

{"NO": 88.16753010579406, "YES": 109.94582996754113}

1

will-i-attend-an-inperson-summer-so

10

Will I attend an in-person Summer Solstice event?

1655851347433

sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2

cpmm-1

0

2.8803040609840305

True

play

YES

public

1654377182511

Juan Gil

This questions resolves to "YES" if I attend an in-person event with at least five people between June 18 2022 and June 26 2022 inclusive explicitly celebrating the Summer Solstice. Context: I'm thinking about planning a Boston-area Summer Solstice celebration, similar to those held by other rationalist communities.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.32502019475317045, "platformFee": 0.05417003245886175, "liquidityFee": 0.32502019475317045}

0

1655851347433

100.32502019475317

juan

1655152287153

0

https://firebasestorage.…26c-a52078afc366

1

0

0.6

1655152286974

0.5458665495234253

WqQPlHQZxo0Orj8qJRXj

i-will-select-as-correct-all-answer

170

I will select as correct all answer choices between 5% and 10%.

1654994588356

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.784730694915448

True

play

MKT

public

1654378086832

Duncn

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.879999999999999, "platformFee": 1.2199999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654994588356

1100.0000000000002

Duncn

1654981418829

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fd08f396faec", "prob": 0.13717421124828533, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.7505101602770137, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.590708908142414, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WqQPlHQZxo0Orj8qJRXj", "createdTime": 1654378086942, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1654981380329

1654981416486

{"87570076e3c": 9.836065573770492, "0099e101afab": 9.836065573770492, "071974d6f9f8": 9.836065573770492, "08614f1f5fdb": 6.557377049180328, "0e3290b212bf": 9.836065573770492, "364d20ef046b": 8.19672131147541, "92914b4a4c1f": 6.557377049180328, "bb3fcab451dd": 9.836065573770492, "cafee3840c93": 9.836065573770492, "d35e7...

True

0.49788417422433934

o3nviCpuIrGLJkfRNRUR

{"NO": 73.37339836900074, "YES": 148.56435737349636}

1

will-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the

90.91796438881875

Will the Warriors win Game 4 of the NBA Finals 2022?

1654909140000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

0

2.7521103138902854

True

play

YES

public

1654378537109

howtodowtle

Market for Game 2: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-2-of-the Market for Game 3: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-3-of-the Jun 7, 10:12am: Market for Game 5: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-5-of-the

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.125444353749309, "platformFee": 0.35424072562488496, "liquidityFee": 2.125444353749309}

0

1654938642297

102.12544435374933

howtodowtle

1654888818546

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

5

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407781}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1654888817185

0.3287332094537512

0.5022794203964087

Fbkn1UfHi9BM6bUOBUzS

{"NO": 132.9586862358838, "YES": 79.35132083449582}

1

will-we-get-out-of-the-escape-room

60

Will we get out of the escape room?

1654382931078

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.7549472744422294

True

play

YES

public

1654379003423

Charlie

One hour. Unlimited hints. Got out of a medium room last time but this one is hard.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2974803984305106, "platformFee": 0.21624673307175174, "liquidityFee": 1.2974803984305106}

0

1654382931078

101.29748039843051

Charlie

1654382923414

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1654381170518

1654382921504

0.6283794979797598

0.3420457529410742

4YNBUKeNPxAY9kFnkoHj

{"NO": 53.598954023800204, "YES": 328.7672842009535}

0

do-you-like-to-bet-on-free-response

848.6877952505255

Do you like to bet on free response markets, in their current implementation?

1655665200000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

3.4816169975433833

True

play

NO

public

1654388229591

Matt P

Vote in the comments! I will *only* count votes in which an all-caps YES or NO is the *first* word in the top-level comment (and will count the newest vote if the same user votes multiple times). This question resolves to YES if the majority of votes by market close are YES, NO if the majority of votes are NO, and 50...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.347454490526975, "platformFee": 1.8843379620279697, "liquidityFee": 11.306027772167816}

0

1655666391897

120.57264584936425

MattP

1698660958335

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

16

0

0.5

1655648183079

1698660957652

0.07813134103091494

0.748886493293541

pTi7gM6b1BSTuxhuRwmP

{"NO": 55.53616891839526, "YES": 124.84412824584417}

0.5701960043738402

is-outerloper-in-the-treatment-grou

30.193443599268058

Is Outerloper in the treatment group of an ongoing double-blind study on human shrinking?

1672559940000

jRm7RTOgiNWE2gfiLHsIln7ubV53

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654393283499

outerloper

This question resolves to "yes" if, upon publication of referenced experiment, it is revealed that Outerloper was administered, without his knowledge, a medical intervention to shrink his body so that his resource needs would decrease. It resolves to "no" upon the discovery of incontrovertible proof of one of the follo...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9352563131737635, "platformFee": 0.15587605219562728, "liquidityFee": 0.9352563131737635}

0

100.93525631317377

outerloper

1667246379273

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxF-Y8dIm1iW3vps55hmLhpMunQAJQwhblh9iPn=s96-c

4

0

106

6

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529534111}]

["science-default"]

0.75

1667246378814

1654721545519

0.6289546420381131

lPMKWujREOMZudSbXlds

{"NO": 1095.2449792042091, "YES": 941.4414107653179}

0.6635279861352716

will-the-first-detected-bsm-particl

181.28979387829347

Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?

1893567540000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

9.647347914821644

False

basic

public

1654395555789

Scott Lawrence

If a detection is widely contested, I will use my (somewhat conservative) discretion. In the event of no detection by close time, this will resolve to MKT.

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.015764921194912573}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2210488354587163, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ScottLawrence

1719051375176

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

12

0

10

[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1658529389390}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532944}, {"name": "Particle Physics", "slug": "particle-physics", "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8...

["physics", "science-default", "particle-physics"]

0.5

1719051371801

1669396414430

0.06279990846514177

kAN9YioTNwBM8AmovIrT

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-c42a2a2cb784

50

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654398039515

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654398029066

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1654398039515

100.01704414600928

SayJarva

1654398037048

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.05

1654398035544

0.05

0.06279990846514177

U8SNRGPBA1zPlrVjTvsh

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-383168c7585b

50

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654398065485

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654398055389

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1654398065485

100.01704414600928

PeterBerggrenf455

1654398061990

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

1

0

0.05

1654398060742

0.05

0.06279990846514177

7tSmP6iRycKjetT96OHJ

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-bcff349a73ee

50

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654398092433

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654398084362

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

0

1654398092433

100.01704414600928

unit_24601

1654398089503

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.05

1654398088174

0.05

0.8364767666631663

P3uhHTOLFIdyznW48mcu

{"NO": 868.2716884711342, "YES": 235.3674578667447}

1

will-timnit-gebru-criticize-eliezer

2721.214548642648

Will Timnit Gebru criticize Eliezer Yudkowsky, by name, before the end of 2022?

1669493117717

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

2.2956304295025154

True

play

YES

public

1654398406420

Peter Berggren

This market resolves "YES" if in a public interview, debate, tweet, blog post, or other form of mass communication created by Timnit Gebru, she refers negatively to Eliezer Yudkowsky by name (e.g. a reference to MIRI does not count). A reference to only his first or last name, or a short nickname from the above, still ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0920084124735423, "platformFee": 0.4405425780791068, "liquidityFee": 2.6432554684746408}

0

1669493117717

382.64325546847465

PeterBerggren

1669493082633

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

0

25

0

25

0.4

1669489595194

1669493081531

0.949674165708735

etHVPZy66W2qvTTjXVzY

how-will-manifold-address-share-rou

3

How will Manifold address share rounding making some bet sizes strictly worse than others?

1654402942674

6YNct3TSOCXUuSyoiPl3QTziAuu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.009249471163088

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654401489137

jacb

Because share amounts are rounded, some bet sizes are inefficient. E.g. for a yes/no market currently at 90%, $9 buys 9 YES shares, $10 buys 11 YES shares, $11 buys 12 YES shares. In this case, $10 is the lowest reasonable bet amount, and you should never bet $11, since it risks strictly more than betting $10, but you ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654402942674

280

jacb

1654402668505

0

https://firebasestorage.…2a2-00a5f9818992

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a82dec1edf01", "prob": 0.9425959091337544, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.56583608437043, "userId": "6YNct3TSOCXUuSyoiPl3QTziAuu1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.9832594175381595, "textFts": "", "contractId": "etHVPZy66W2qvTTjXVzY", "createdTime": 1654401489247, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1654401599084

1654402660667

True

0.44861957820464426

rZF1Lb74moQQupwG4rSd

{"NO": 118.66403541230159, "YES": 100.68689834328745}

0

did-cea-spend-50kparticipant-on-a-s

208.74201344159766

Did CEA spend $50k/participant on a student recruiting camp, AND was Ben Hoffman's tweet non-misleading?

1654883519113

FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1

cpmm-1

0

2.61340658561556

True

play

NO

public

1654401904429

Ophelia

Ben Hoffman just tweeted (https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1533162764042215426) "A friend who worked there said CEA ran a recruiting camp with the primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs, spent $50k/participant on this. Can connect you w him for details." Is true in a non-misleading way? We'l...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.116125297445928, "platformFee": 0.8526875495743214, "liquidityFee": 5.116125297445928}

0

1654883519113

105.1161252974459

Ophelia

1667146088293

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c

11

0

1

0.45

1654704205127

1667146086103

0.48950925369002524

0.5169325399840654

SyE7nd4N1Df4BsjLA3DC

{"NO": 720.3213839718782, "YES": 17.472140196279422}

1

poll-should-you-be-able-to-input-a

731.5373433039942

Poll: Should you be able to input a bet as buying up to a probability/price?

1655017140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.19625836268991

True

play

YES

public

1654411904085

Jack

Here's my basic proposal: you should be able to input trades of the form "buy all YES shares available on the market below a price of 42 cents" or in other words, "buy until the price/probability reaches a specified amount". E.g. if the current price is 50, I can say "buy up to 60" - this means buy yes until the price ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0841746715095573, "platformFee": 0.5140291119182594, "liquidityFee": 3.0841746715095573}

0

1655743435731

103.08417467150953

jack

1655011303781

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

11

0

1

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1655011302559

1655003263486

0.1

0.5087847245889902

aXP3cqe7bskYlm09fvqR

{"NO": 247.70940295023706, "YES": 43.95083221700666}

1

will-i-lose-four-kilograms-of-weigh

214

Will I lose four kilograms of weight, put on during my holiday, in the next 12 weeks?

1658494991351

ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3

cpmm-1

0

3.081746156396794

True

play

YES

public

1654413894522

John Beshir

This question resolves to YES if my set of scales report myself as having a body weight equal to or less than 64.3kg before the end of the 28th of August, London time, given my weigh in this morning at 68.3kg. During my recent two week holiday I (expectedly) put back on some weight with the intent of (re)losing this w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8714503250078907, "platformFee": 0.24096806090326467, "liquidityFee": 1.445808365419588}

0

1658494991351

101.4458083654196

jbeshir

1658495074813

0

https://firebasestorage.…93c-41811dc09182

4

0

0.5

1658046053906

1658495074636

0.8537507900184745

gj8xFruSzy3VXD7eBH5p

who-will-win-the-republican-primary

225.79773379617197

Who will win the Republican primary for the MD-06 House election?

1658210400000

xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.773829889883695

True

play

9457991ccdb3

public

1654415732239

Gavriel

Candidate list pulled off Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1658328190001

560

GavrielK

1658179095245

0

https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476

5

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499192}]

["politics-default"]

1658179073865

{"9457991ccdb3": 100}

True

0.06693729108720876

jES9Q2HfDSioYzWbNm5E

{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

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will-resolve-1

100

Will resolve 1

1654417097174

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

8.125090873627006

True

play

YES

public

1654417061821

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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1654417097174

100.00010871690215

Electricitypipe

1654417085981

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.05

1654417084522

0.05

0.8146029003545956

VhLsk8GD7GtHV9kCIRni

{"NO": 1876.202476942086, "YES": 132.5762635069973}

1

will-wikipedias-current-events-incl

3199.0756021718676

Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the COVID-19 pandemic as an ongoing event on 2023-01-01?

1672484340000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

3.095401000711422

True

play

YES

public

1654431133403

N.C. Young

I'll look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events at some point on that day and resolve as I see it. I'm using this as a proxy for when the pandemic will be commonly considered to be over.

BINARY

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1672609912000

262.8942571669239

NcyRocks

1710206840489

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

21

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…a87-018da7da4c4d

20

[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]

["health", "covid-d7a9361d772d"]

0.5

1672467027228

1672451378079

0.98

0.30377790007457817

M7r7Zgy1zWClgMFxmVyq

{"NO": 115.39539096777239, "YES": 104.50830146866883}

0

will-i-be-productive-for-at-least-3

520.3980109357503

Will I be productive for at least 350 minutes a day (on average) in the coming week?

1654988340000

HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2

cpmm-1

0

3.018761776583154

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play

NO

public

1654435230276

Theodore Ehrenborg

For the ten most recent weeks, my average per-day productivity has been: 200 minutes (last week) 270 minutes 270 minutes 280 minutes 320 minutes 370 minutes 350 minutes 270 minutes 390 minutes 190 minutes (values rounded to nearest 10) Note the average of those numbers is 291, and that only 30% of...

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0

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1655027725169

106.06976443317716

TheodoreEhrenborg

1654986172040

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c

10

0

1

0.3

1654986171795

1654574263295

0.3251346093634446

TWASDsutSNEyMKZqbda3

how-many-markets-might-a-manifold-m

110.35991443370673

How many markets might a Manifold Markets moderator moderate, if a Manifold Markets moderator must moderate markets?

1655092740000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.840139681294199

True

play

4a2a27738487

public

1654438134667

Martin Randall

Jun 5, 10:29am: I resolve to reliably resolve to the resolution that risks riotous ridicule regularly.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1655121095024

360

MartinRandall

1655121179954

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

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ANYONE

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1654804327293

1655121176182

{"4a2a27738487": 100}

True

0.1

GRP4vceQiyBNuTCIL3fY

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1

will-this-test-q-be-resolved-to-yes

0

Will this test Q be resolved to yes?

1654438519812

LY6zJkjFbzaZUf29CRhRCZDeoFs2

cpmm-1

0

7.701635339554951

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654438463193

Valentin Manès

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1654438519812

100

ValentinManes

1654438463193

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi86Fl9gZNcdWF4UWLwQrStg17BJxpwDaOFG6jb2JY=s96-c

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0.1

0.34

0.09996306384861477

4u8EH2XdPalSipRsp4KS

{"NO": 102.36250161720258, "YES": 94.9956179217705}

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will-it-be-possible-to-travel-from

110

Will it be possible to travel from Helsinki to Saint-Peterburg on a commercial flight in 2022?

1656629940000

JnJU9Dn9BSRKIoRsPrfPD2qS0Ft1

cpmm-1

0

7.616938966826249

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play

NO

public

1654439316162

Evgenii Petrov

In February 2022 the European Union shut down the EU airspace for Russian aircraft. In response Russia shut down Russian airspace to all members of the European Union. There are currently no commercial flights from HEL to LED as reported by flightradar24. The question resolves as "yes" if flightradar shows a recording ...

BINARY

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0

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1673021513320

100.80012008532759

EvgeniiPetrov

1673037843014

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkqGIJmkl1qQu3EMRrmswzrPOsbg7eQhPn3MDUTg=s96-c

3

0

1

5

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469618}]

["politics-default"]

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1656628877895

1673037841469

0.11

0.2726644489705014

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{"NO": 857.6946514135053, "YES": 1344.20660642379}

0.19302747360200606

will-a-supersonic-plane-fly-commerc

1794.0598119560027

Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030?

1893473940000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0.09159461048942757

9.65142086154722

False

basic

public

1654441538385

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See for example ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this video", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdzIYg3bsqM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor...

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0

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1000

BoltonBailey

1713887663130

1.7

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

26

0

11

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452736}, {"name": "Air travel", "slug": "air-travel", "groupId": "b80a6ba2-b2c2-4f89-838d-1cc0af750b85", "createdTime": 1698861790506}, {"name": " 💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm...

["technology-default", "air-travel", "business"]

0.11938837062624442

0.5

1713887659652

1711292822018

0.1752793973299269

Z5drVZMNrEBG9Bzugycl

{"NO": 923.4276509707265, "YES": 1247.931292110974}

0.13589480192703196

will-amazon-have-a-broadly-availabl

485.12616493872986

Will Amazon have a broadly available drone delivery service in the US by June 2025?

1748836740000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

9.806593244267791

False

basic

public

1654445208044

Bolton Bailey

By "broadly available", I roughly mean that at least 1 in 10 Americans could order something by drone if they wanted to. The cost of the delivery doesn't matter for the purposes of the question.

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1000

BoltonBailey

1718723834493

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https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

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22

0

9

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571824}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1718723831421

1678653664294

0.41144299642883764

SjZDPiZxwj6czJdqjaXF

{"NO": 162.45248953576692, "YES": 1526.4834061403908}

0

will-the-turkish-lira-trade-at-high

1196.1613856726262

Will the Turkish Lira trade at higher than 0.065 to the US Dollar on July 1st?

1656734340000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

1.2736710780230913

True

play

NO

public

1654446843669

Duncn

As per Google finance, will the Turkish Lira trade at 0.066 dollars or higher on July first?

BINARY

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0

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1656759345908

405.17611574837133

Duncn

1656765582280

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

8

0

1

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["economics-default", "turkey"]

0.5

1656720361562

1656765575785

0.06924535380190108

0.5015061933015805

ILqFTWZfNawBBMeIlCLf

{"NO": 104.47510095297214, "YES": 104.17155207252085}

0

will-i-find-a-bus-ticket-from-anywh

90

Will I find a bus ticket from anywhere in Brazil to any other country for the purpose of "proof of onward travel" that I can buy online for less than $30?

1654556525781

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.6888708605449434

True

play

NO

public

1654448876118

Charlie

More difficult than expected.

BINARY

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1654556525781

102.16128109945326

Charlie

1655170592588

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1654533592646

1655170591323

0.5022336068287092

0.06693729108720876

9wEry1PshBORudol2z77

{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

1

i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-so

100

I will resolve this question YES so I can put the free liquidity into another question.

1654450010174

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

8.125090873627006

True

play

YES

public

1654449994580

Matt P

More high quality, high liquidity questions is better than fewer low quality questions. #FreeMarketReformNow #JustGiveUsTheMoneyInstead

BINARY

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1654450010174

100.00010871690215

MattP

1654450004348

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

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0

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1654450002798

0.05

YdAerYpbKjwOz82WUul5

i-want-to-set-up-a-prediction-marke

16

I want to set up a prediction market where people guess the outcome of some as-yet-unpublished study related to the question "does social media have a significant negative impact on mental health?". What will I decide is the question my prediction market should ask?

1655074740000

Ng4mNYXywZTGNFo5jespXeKYfDW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.9722245532560025

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654452268130

Hamish Todd

I COULD scour the internet for pre-registrations of studies where people are going to address this. But I'd prefer someone else to do it! "Does social media have a significant negative impact on mental health?" is an important and interesting question that is also hand-wavey and open to goal-post-moving. I've seen stu...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655078569018

300

HamishTodd

1655035670031

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGB3dNIQI5uPdNsxGkJ_50n4jVTXnZW9V5uPL4Lw=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492665}]

["politics-default"]

1654999348939

1655035665900

True

0.5018020390317581

Sd3g7CyToMfBCywkDv6O

{"NO": 149.84615384615387, "YES": 69.41372141372142}

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will-featuring-in-a-vulf-song-bring

50

Will featuring in a Vulf song bring views of Jacob Jeffries' YouTube channel into the 5 digits?

1654509378745

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

0

2.809773836947409

True

play

YES

public

1654455200311

Mr Stone

This question resolves to Yes if any video on his channel gets 10 000 or more views within a week. Jacob Jeffries: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQVvmEMuLD8ffdlGaiMwNNQ Vulf: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k2dGhF6yVk

BINARY

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0

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1654509378745

100.92307692307692

stone

1654509366345

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

1

0

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544263}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1654472029821

1654509361625

0.6849755201958386

o8EneauaAiTFu5O0KsjR

bounty-why-are-there-so-many-mexica

256.3457537613795

Bounty: why are there so many Mexican flags in Chicago right now?

1654475859599

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.912889562962913

True

play

b7e4b3495e41

public

1654455789469

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I just saw like 40 flying from cars on the highway. Is there a holiday?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1654475859599

320

LivInTheLookingGlass

1654471786646

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

4

0

ANYONE

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["culture-default", "olivia"]

1654471785959

1654456353946

{"b7e4b3495e41": 100}

True

4FEAB42hfErRfYXZvC3q

why-didnt-my-market-have-much-parti

489.74207390872016

Why didn't my market have much participation?

1654898340000

JGhwTRLVy7OnGhP7k9u0SMo2KrH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7011198821616

True

play

MKT

public

1654456144335

Martin

The market below I put work in and subsidized didn't have as much participation as I hoped. What could be the reasons for that? Resolution: I will resolve based on what I believe the reasons are on market close. Market in question: https://manifold.markets/MM/which-photos-will-i-have-edited-and

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.079999999999998, "platformFee": 3.0199999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654905428215

620.0000000000002

MM

1654908229817

0

https://firebasestorage.…954-afece3a745c0

11

0

ANYONE

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1

1654611113282

1654908228299

{"39c4fa03c150": 1.4265797234632203, "774a554c035b": 57.06318893852881, "7b75026bf714": 4.392378808744721, "815c5b2b0908": 5.733098613072385, "9cf59f21959c": 1.4265797234632203, "ce19e7105ad2": 1.4265797234632203, "dac1327a83b9": 28.531594469264405}

True

Y8tYcUcUPNsSiXu3IA2A

what-percentage-want-meatveggiepota

353

What percentage want meat/veggie/potato at bay area summer solstice 2022?

1655535540000

YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.876336016104877

True

play

MKT

public

1654457429019

Rachel Shu

Resolves as PROB, sourced from: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSduORwiirRvV8r8Pv3FdbahUpNVR-jP6BEW4hheLF0gMD-XaA/viewanalytics

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.075320036399173, "platformFee": 1.0188300090997933, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655560008685

420

noumena

1655501925059

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

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1

1655501923716

1654569091215

{"13081ab9fd67": 4, "27fa96e5d962": 75, "680c18754491": 21}

True

mPYIYBhgvjjMfwExaXx3

keynesian-beauty-contest

1150.2150257456124

Keynesian Beauty Contest

1655362740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6660921674944795

True

play

be140a41a1bd

public

1654461192284

SneakySly

In three days after resolution I will pick the answer with the highest probability. This is a proper Keynesian beauty contest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest Jun 14, 12:59pm: WITHIN three days. You will not have to wait three days after close.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 28.956455666600622, "platformFee": 7.2391139166501555, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655365590507

780.0000000000002

SneakySly

1655362738950

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0689f4e5a215", "prob": 0.01094970580991722, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.07900192717052532, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.135979784847046, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mPYIYBhgvjjMfwExaXx3", "createdTime": 1654461192358, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1655362737698

1655338327409

{"be140a41a1bd": 100}

True

0.41503054555448854

3H10sngp3mgKJcnF5V8J

{"NO": 104.13037049707356, "YES": 5301.931808326078}

0

will-people-report-that-theyve-rece

8642.709131694917

Will people report that they've received more oral sex than they've given on my Twitter poll?

1654749605699

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

1.6537874234280885

True

play

NO

public

1654461809333

Aella

The twitter poll will be "in total, have you given or received more oral sex?" the answers will be given, received, and "never had oral sex". Will the winning vote be that people received more oral sex? Jun 8, 3:35pm: this is the most stressful manifold market ive ever done

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 63.72288057815013, "platformFee": 10.620480096358357, "liquidityFee": 63.72288057815013}

0

1654749605699

473.7228805781501

Aella

1654745572646

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

33

0

[{"name": "Aella's Twitter Polls", "slug": "aellas-twitter-polls", "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "groupId": "tm5BTMEUugDBgksG76OP", "createdTime": 1669703495027}]

["aellas-twitter-polls"]

0.5

1654745572466

1654741440429

0.013742959438919213

eZgKL8MA6A8vBlnt4Rnn

when-will-the-first-human-colony-be

66.85726959517416

When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri

253399726740000

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654465730511

Garrett Baker

If not resolved before my death, I will pass down responsibility to my children, and impress upon them the importance of keeping this market up-to-date.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

419.99999999999994

GarrettBaker

1719460864823

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "42821037a5b4", "prob": 0.5019760199149637, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.571049260633345, "userId": "hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.188651070990936, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eZgKL8MA6A8vBlnt4Rnn", "createdTime": 1654465730591, "probChanges": {"day": -0.4980239800...

9

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531467}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104669278}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "u...

["science-default", "futurism", "ancient-markets"]

1697771410135

1719460863647

True

0.25791349848828293

08CdMoRLxumMnAKNtFpE

{"NO": 97.35435067245913, "YES": 155.9861986293395}

0

will-my-blitz-rating-be-above-1900

1458.9282764396633

Will my blitz rating be above 1900 on July 1?

1656741540000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

3.4073644804717396

True

play

NO

public

1654468821043

Scott Lawrence

This question resolves to YES if at the end of the day on July 1, my blitz lichess rating is 1900 or higher. You can see my rating history here: https://lichess.org/@/slawrence I will be betting YES in this market for obvious incentive reasons.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.007730051956017, "platformFee": 0.8346003025941974, "liquidityFee": 5.007601815565184}

0

1656741579905

105.00760181556518

ScottLawrence

1656742648416

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

10

0

0.25

1656736545215

1656742643247

0.17824963064297544

0.5014981253894762

3b0eIE92hJaF9rZDOSwP

{"NO": 73.72299130548159, "YES": 146.04464247240014}

0

will-monkeypox-spread-in-south-afri

1165.6633539857962

Will monkeypox spread in South Africa?

1659239940000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.7555099050636502

True

play

NO

public

1654469856440

Enopoletus Harding

This seems to be the New AIDS, so it seems worth asking if it's going to affect southern Africa like AIDS. Resolves yes if there are more than ten thousand cases of monkeypox in South Africa by the end of the year, no if not.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.90627610074116, "platformFee": 0.32248441044269205, "liquidityFee": 1.9349064626561523}

0

1673294091255

101.93490646265616

EnopoletusHarding

1673294941433

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

11

0

1

13

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1672781627976}]

["please-resolve"]

0.5

1659132446870

1673294938187

0.34

0.309706750726087

bPHRRZExLJKVAcVhRNBn

{"NO": 22.235378239603406, "YES": 454.7025793213619}

0.02146885111279034

planecrashrot13-jvyy-xrygunz-naq-ce

691.1903320008308

[Planecrash][rot13] Jvyy Xrygunz naq Cevapr Sr-Nane unir frk orsber gur raq bs gur fgbel?

1672549140000

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654472505201

Garrett Baker

BINARY

{"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.416318657058447, "platformFee": 0.3655616931155386, "liquidityFee": 2.1933701586932317}

0

122.19337015869323

GarrettBaker

1703523242823

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c

9

0

106

9

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393021}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545551}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.75

1668830580706

1703523242337

0.47921456349573255

xZMW7C7ExL1pR9hyK72g

{"NO": 17.17327951352086, "YES": 751.560940407102}

0

planecrashrot13-sr-nane-vf-pnevffn

1365.4734933640586

[planecrash][rot13] Sr Nane vf pnevffn?

1672549140000

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

cpmm-1

0

4.247046483576549

True

play

NO

public

1654472709235

Garrett Baker

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.007877433715168, "platformFee": 0.5013129056191946, "liquidityFee": 3.007877433715168}

0

1679040370615

103.00787743371517

GarrettBaker

1679040363858

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c

11

0

16

12

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529394156}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548681}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1667246396374

1679040361906

0.02

0.2577888999418373

VwY9T8M5FGIJC8vUz18I

{"NO": 79.03580310564564, "YES": 242.39453743416405}

0

will-a-covid-vaccine-modified-to-ta

589.5406923404735

Will a COVID vaccine modified to target any non-original variant (e.g. Omicron) be approved (EUA counts) before 09/01/2022?

1659412740000

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

3.6372786139414996

True

play

NO

public

1654472932424

Stephen Malina

This question resolves to "Yes" if the FDA approves a vaccine modified to target any COVID variant besides the original prior to September 1st, 2022. Note that "approval" here includes emergency use authorization in addition to full approval (which is very unlikely given how long it took for the original vaccine).

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.202928025914934, "platformFee": 0.4759514533620291, "liquidityFee": 2.8557087201721743}

0

1674064104461

102.85570872017217

StephenMalina

1674064157168

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

8

0

1

10

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668975276235}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601084}, {"name":...

["medicine", "please-resolve", "improperly-resolved"]

0.25

1658551982105

1674064154522

0.1

0.5177795285923067

7ehYFRWdV5idZGjmI1Fv

{"NO": 432.88302449856576, "YES": 26.371815661403403}

1

will-ratio-of-ispaid-deactivatedcou

715

Will ratio of (is_paid - deactivated)/count increase from at least 19.5% -> 22.0225%?

1657083540000

rcZfrkafZ6VFf233dh416GfV9023

cpmm-1

0

3.6508067973643676

True

play

YES

public

1654474002775

Daniel Chang

2 weeks after always on flow is pushed on web

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3128100760695616, "platformFee": 0.22838726858036873, "liquidityFee": 1.3703236114822124}

0

1657169316223

101.3703236114822

DanielChang

1657059990555

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwnG93b7--KAcY1DdjiSJ4Q_-ePTDalO3LAT5rC=s96-c

3

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472114}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1657059989402

0.9463087986260423

0.5004645142845999

W3v6hM5ndxFIxK910ie7

{"NO": 473.61040772734236, "YES": 21.983819859500773}

1

will-deandre-ayton-sign-a-contract

666.1821679996485

Will DeAndre Ayton sign a contract to play for the Phoenix Suns in the summer of 2022?

1660633140000

MkjO7BqBlUQnXwhBtJaRhH0DCyq2

cpmm-1

0

3.813125413532145

True

play

YES

public

1654476452444

Richard

Resolves as no if he completes a sign-and-trade to go to another team.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.160387128920432, "platformFee": 0.15771757708701145, "liquidityFee": 0.9463054625220686}

0

1660664282808

100.94630546252206

Richard

1660210060290

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9gK6ucio7UtOfo9eObrhDI17FQrfv2M2gR7mAZg=s96-c

8

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403759}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1660210060136

0.955720191268056

0.5010618100447509

qIkMJKwQnDgnjwWV1jQ9

{"NO": 134.87599645704165, "YES": 76.4573310044941}

0.75

how-many-people-will-show-up-to-tac-36b108f44337

35

How many people will show up to Taco Tuesday this week? [% * 20]

1654671540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7833050925146936

True

play

MKT

public

1654479367762

Austin

Last week, forecasted 10 and got 12, which ties for our all-time high: https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-show-up-to-tac (If you're reading this and you're in SF, you're invited! Ping me at austin@manifold.markets)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7440212577502214, "platformFee": 0.12400354295837024, "liquidityFee": 0.7440212577502214}

0

1654902483593

100.74402125775022

Austin

1654902476150

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

1

0

1

0.5

1654486425585

1654902472498

0.75

UTpYmxZLJEZccDIj1W1l

which-qb-not-named-carson-wentz-wil

430

Which QB not named Carson Wentz will next start for the Washington Commanders?

1667962211804

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.720370038548142

True

play

a35994bf77b2

public

1654482846242

David Glidden

If Carson Wentz does not start all games for the Washington Commanders in the 2022 regular season, which backup quarterback gets the start? This market resolves N/A if Carson Wentz starts every regular season game for the Commanders.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667962211804

280

dglid

1666920866812

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e73cf7305229", "prob": 0.04938271604938271, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.5757511806764752, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.33321022802215, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UTpYmxZLJEZccDIj1W1l", "createdTime": 1654482846309, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

2

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403329}]

["sports-default"]

1666920866669

{"a35994bf77b2": 100}

True

0.2498588093719493

T3Fq6NUcES2AS7VrjDv6

{"NO": 94.15154685299524, "YES": 123.34102007778971}

0.2027147335843045

will-comments-3-pms-i-get-for-my-se

27

Will # comments + 3 * # PMs I get for my selfie posted on /r/mtfselfietrain be more than 10?

1654671540000

YFyPC9kVyneJM7O26tFatN20Z453

cpmm-1

0

3.688082625168039

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654485093505

Temerity

Self-comments don't count, comments/PMs from the same user only count once.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701090504683

100.36171574661665

MistySprings

1701090501886

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMyVMJBxj5QmQXYSrTT_BPS6MbeWc3Q6yKE3RT=s96-c

3

0

1

6

0.25

1654658357297

1701090501113

0.2

0.33027124419403064

DYs3gvcXP58SI5opExso

{"NO": 104.70315395795718, "YES": 94.30103505551716}

0.3538127637398932

will-i-have-any-friends-by-the-end

20

Will I have any friends by the end of this summer?

1656692311114

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

3.1093594430524836

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654485608200

1

Friend meaning someone who I love and can entrust myself to, and with whom I am “walking in the light” (tangibly, this means no more being underhanded toward people, and true honesty about times I have used, betrayed, or wronged them)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656692311114

100.5733218774329

1

1654645409949

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

2

0

0.33

1654642633542

1654645407991

0.3538127637398932

0.5645823366622675

jNYRE8Pnio0xzLLJG9VF

{"NO": 15177.604499417861, "YES": 2.2185623530575356}

1

will-it-be-possible-to-withdraw-liq

15479.222348751213

Will it be possible to withdraw liquidity by end of June?

1654819318844

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.999542688757982

True

play

YES

public

1654485644343

Jack

I think this is one important component of making it more attractive to provide liquidity, which is very good for traders and prediction accuracy.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.092092802678653, "platformFee": 1.6820154671131091, "liquidityFee": 10.092092802678653}

0

1654819318844

111.4888908330939

jack

1654819283243

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

14

0

0.5

1654819281849

1654819150827

0.9892522815616367

0.06693729108720876

HBm4KEjzKI5GwLN9p2dE

{"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223}

1

will-resolve-the-first-option

100

Will resolve the first option.

1654487108852

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

8.125090873627006

True

play

YES

public

1654487096342

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969}

0

1654487108852

100.00010871690215

Electricitypipe

1654487105586

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.05

1654487104176

0.05

0.5013197354407352

BkSRDKruRAn0OsrYsPAm

{"NO": 138.24628390053869, "YES": 76.68534637460962}

0.04

how-long-will-my-next-httpslitherio

65

How long will my next http://slither.io/ snake be after market close?

1655128740000

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

2.7594081687227816

True

play

MKT

public

1654492002026

Undox

Resolves to floor(length / 20) %. Max 100. Making 2000+ = 100%. I have got up to about 2000 before. Sometimes I die real short.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4415178658718433, "platformFee": 0.24025297764530723, "liquidityFee": 1.4415178658718433}

0

1655170346890

101.44151786587184

Undox

1655170435258

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

3

0

1

0.5

1654609163946

1655170435184

0.04

0.5008820041788127

TwIsThCNgQvWe3Kj9m8l

{"NO": 15.820938145592436, "YES": 765.5438377689807}

0

will-manifold-switch-to-optimistic

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Will Manifold switch to optimistic UI updates?

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1654499611073

Akhil Wable

Currently while performing an action on Manifold, there is a delay where the frontend waits for a confirmation from the backend before updating the UI. Sometimes this delay is as long as a few seconds. Will Manifold instead switch to an optimistic approach, where the UI is updated immediately assuming the backend acti...

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will-my-partner-propose-by-the-end

730.8347638255691

Will my partner propose by the end of 2022?

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CANCEL

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MissB

Okay a bit of a back story… My partner and I are in our mid 20’s and have been together for over 5 years now. We have a beautiful son together and live in a wonderful home. We talk about getting married, and he always says he is thinking about it waiting until it feels right. Which I completely understand. However, ...

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will-kamala-harris-run-for-presiden

1329.912360999661

Will Kamala Harris run for President in 2024?

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fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

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1654516941120

N.C. Young

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will-boris-johnson-win-todays-confi

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Will Boris Johnson win today's confidence vote?

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John Roxton

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-61703688 Will resolve YES if Johnson wins the vote. Will resolve NO in all other cases. Close date updated to 2022-06-06 9:00 pm

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will-my-7yo-enjoy-won-buddhism-chil

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Will my 7yo enjoy Won Buddhism Children's Camp?

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1654521347611

Martin Randall

Resolves YES if she likes it, NO if she dislikes it, 50% if she is neutral, NO if she ends up not going. http://www.wonbuddhismnc.org/camps/2021/07/04/childrens-camp

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do-i-feel-alive-today-84b3c0046187

125

Do I feel alive today?

1654527144039

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

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8.164729999629506

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1654527118827

Trent Yazzo

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will-ukraine-have-regained-its-pre2

719.9957259347646

Will Ukraine have regained its pre-2014 (incl Donbas and Crimea) territories by 2015?

1654527379742

LLZCCKKLYxP5RdPDw83ISeYDW8V2

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1654527200323

Indrek Kivirik

This question resolves positively if the Wikipedia article on the Russian invasion of Ukraine describes the areas of Crimea and Donbas, as they were before 2014, to be under de facto Ukrainian control, at 01.01.2025.

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IndrekKivirik

1654527356741

0

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this-question-will-resolve-no

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This question will resolve NO

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1654532118448

Matt P

Farming daily M$100 so I can use it to bet and provide liquidity, stimulating the Manaconomy. #Inflation

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UFC 275

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1654534456906

Ray Doraisamy

Bantamweight Kang Kyung-ho vs. Danaa Batgerel Women's Strawweight Liang Na vs. Silvana Gómez Juárez Women's Featherweight Ramona Pascual vs. Joselyne Edwards Middleweight Jacob Malkoun vs. Brendan Allen Featherweight Seung Woo Choi vs. Joshua Culibao Lightweight Steve Garcia vs. Hayisaer Maheshate ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1702270416490

220

RayDoraisamy

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ANYONE

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1654534456906

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0.4975340582702389

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will-manifold-allow-the-market-crea

278

Will Manifold allow the market creator to censor the free response questions by the end of the month?

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1654537269490

Enopoletus Harding

This is intolerable: https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/eharding-chooses-the-best-explanati Market creators being able to set limits as to minimum investment for free response questions (without the possibility of sale before resolution) also counts.

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EnopoletusHarding

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what-percentage-of-baby-formula-wil

86

What percentage of baby formula will be out of stock in the U.S. on August 1?

1659544386531

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

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MKT

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1654538702344

Scott Lawrence

This market resolves to PROB with the percentage of baby formula products that are out of stock on August 1, 2022. Preferred source will be Baidi Wang/Axios similar to https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/05/23/baby-formula-shortage-pennsylvania. This is essentially a remake of Zvi's market (https://manifold....

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100.65675384420423

ScottLawrence

1659544339865

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https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

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will-the-new-dutch-rationality-disc

238.86030652959624

Will the new Dutch rationality discord have 100 members (rationalists in NL) before July 1?

1656626340000

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1654538871772

Dark

This question resolves to yes if the new Dutch rationality discord server reaches 100 members before July first. The server is the first discussion-focussed rationality platform for the Netherlands. Presumably there are enough interested people spread out over the country (population 17M that all speak English) but few...

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will-5-people-sleep-in-the-ftx-ea-o

377.70243990894835

Will >5 people sleep in the FTX EA office tonight?

1654615105456

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7.826592880913772

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1654540541087

Joel Becker

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JoelBecker

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will-i-weigh-less-than-100-kg-220-l

90.35850102700142

Will I weigh less than 100 kg (220 lbs) at any point before September 1 2022.

1662091140000

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2.6829328396789096

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1654541284737

Alex Demarsh

I currently weigh about 108 kg (238 lbs), and haven't weighed less than 100 kg in over 7 years. I'm experimenting with various weight loss methods, including the SMTM Potato Diet Community Trial: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/

BINARY

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AlexDemarsh

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