p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.014559797629387194 | ZTSEUuNYTBJJXBpHqqcp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.014559797629387194 | will-there-be-an-edge-case-where-it | 13570.680698863911 | {"NO": 6725.809544232244, "YES": 709.5097569038475} | Will there be an edge case where it is hard to determine if Russia has invaded the Ukraine before March? | 1646110740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6846.5, "YES": 443.5} | 0 | 4.621733580879384 | True | play | NO | public | 1644631589922 | Duncn | Will we be unsure if Russia has invaded Ukraine as of February 28th? Fifth columns, uncertain allies, planes falling out of the sky, unauthorized incursions, back-and-forth action within Crimea... the possibilities are endless. This will resolve NO if we are sure that Russia has definitely invaded.
Feb 22, 6:20pm: Clarification of terms: as of February 28th, will I feel good making a clear yes or no statement as to weather the Ukraine (including Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but excluding the Crimea) has been invaded by Russia as indicated by an influx of Russian troops that were not there in January 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7480.261797731619, "YES": 909.2416661542911} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1645739795972 | 100 | Duncn | 1644631589922 | 0 | 57 | 1715658336634 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493355}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226860}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1645660913241 | False | 0.014559797629387194 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12852482775841503 | cDfanKlNaa4V9S5DaaFN | {"NO": 97.65750134015198, "YES": 119.97704365030295} | 0 | some-rationalists-take-significant | 684.5258521483437 | {"NO": 222.00000000000006, "YES": 27.474147851656312} | Some rationalists take significant political action this Oops It's Time To Overthrow Governance Again day | 1656655140000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 222, "YES": 27} | 0 | 6.181488720619061 | True | play | NO | public | 1644632447239 | Em ✨ | Resolves yes by my hearing about attempted US political action which does not seem like it would have been tried in a counterfactual world where EY did not write about fictional dath ilan holidays, by the end of July.
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 326.23986401281405, "YES": 125.2985680107397} | {"creatorFee": 0.13773809818213611, "platformFee": 0.02295634969702269, "liquidityFee": 0.13773809818213611} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1662561605377 | 100.13773809818213 | hamnox | 1654228643787 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 10 | 1650314670483 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495854}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662037596398}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862214}] | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "us-politics"] | 1654228642376 | 1648559773140 | False | 0.10717771316035735 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19587758497621185 | eROjoCfCkP1snuzSSVyn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.19587758497621185 | will-russia-begin-an-invasion-of-uk | 17827.908670194458 | {"NO": 6165.291648986713, "YES": 2236.799680818829} | Will Russia begin an invasion of Ukraine before the Olympics end? | 1645286400000 | 74sewhVANkbXJiKEMP8YsZfJtMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6369, "YES": 2290} | 0 | 4.620983854014776 | True | play | NO | public | 1644633208450 | Kati Behrenwald | Resolves to "Yes" if Russia did attack Ukraine before the end of the 2022 winter Olympics.
Read more here: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/11/1080164367/russia-ukraine-invasion-olympics-sullivan
Feb 12, 10:40am: #RussiaUkraine | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7624.069559650043, "YES": 3762.860657793777} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1646055901902 | 100 | KatiBehrenwald | 1688045985327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0F-CceYWVYia1urxmW7zHIH-vkqU-bsN0HqRs=s96-c | 69 | 1715658483017 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497168}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226876}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.13068268247672835 | 1688045979253 | False | 0.19587758497621185 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8931782439690217 | rM8gSNkbN3qw1uC2CqLk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8931782439690217 | will-manifold-markets-display-count-03f62c37efe5 | 339.5063946904897 | {"NO": 45.493605309510315, "YES": 265} | Will Manifold Markets display countdowns to markets' closing times before 2022-05-01? | 1648650240000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 265} | 0 | 4.72992703287818 | True | play | YES | public | 1644633255369 | N.C. Young | As of this market's opening, you can tell when a market closes by mousing over the close date, but this (a) is not easy to see and (b) requires the user to convert between time zones. This is kinda inconvenient, especially for short-term markets.
This market resolves YES if, before May, there's an easy way to tell how long until a market closes.
Some rounding would be okay, but it should be impossible for the market to close without a user knowing that that was coming soon.
(Duplicate of a previous market with lower starting probability, to incentivise betting in favour and compensate if not implemented.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 387.94973901267156} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1645157606558 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1644633255369 | 0 | 10 | 1715658769462 | 0 | 1645151246947 | 0.8931782439690217 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.020701794597093988 | 2alaGYDys385KimBdktm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-bitcoin-be-above-50k-by-the-en | 28826.330643726622 | {"NO": 11840.130273410949, "YES": 704.5347697066557} | Will Bitcoin be above $50k by the end of March 2022? | 1648789140000 | q5CS0s2j4lZ3dwmBPj0uf5DKoTF3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 11847, "YES": 725} | 0 | 9.857720539783434 | True | play | NO | public | 1644633334150 | Greg B | This market resolves to yes or by midnight of March 31 the price of Bitcoin is at or above $50,000. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 12513.096928818653, "YES": 1819.3293551827066} | {"creatorFee": 2.346892288870659, "platformFee": 0.5867230722176647, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1663706048720 | 100 | GregB | 1663706054145 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiAElINO-4vdhnplHIy6DqXMEzmUYFcB8LkfQMs=s96-c | 52 | 1650313781070 | 0 | 1 | 54 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779743545}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1663706052875 | 0.02070179459709399 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26879999999999993 | 9TTuWZxGFW3r7na0hJ0k | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.26879999999999993 | if-we-guess-cocoa-in-round-4-will-w | 150 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 42} | If we guess “COCOA” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644638340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 108, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.797109350291603 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644634666017 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1
6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets
Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints.
Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO
Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, VOILA
Result: MACHO ⬜🟨🟩⬜🟨
Round 4 candidates: COCOA, VOCAL, LOCAL | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 213.77558326431952, "YES": 129.6148139681572} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786} | 0 | 1644647712378 | 100 | Manifold | 1644634666017 | 0 | 4 | 1715657670422 | 0 | 0.26879999999999993 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27536920782179664 | U44njmNWEZ3iippc0jn8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.27536920782179664 | if-we-guess-vocal-in-round-4-will-w | 147 | {"NO": 105, "YES": 42} | If we guess “VOCAL” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644638340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 105, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.7991241598181995 | True | play | NO | public | 1644634666443 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1
6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets
Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints.
Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO
Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, VOILA
Result: MACHO ⬜🟨🟩⬜🟨
Round 4 candidates: COCOA, VOCAL, LOCAL | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 210.259363644048, "YES": 129.6148139681572} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786} | 0 | 1644647776768 | 100 | Manifold | 1644634666443 | 0 | 3 | 1715658221555 | 0 | 0.27536920782179664 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2543566140289784 | aH3wKt3O5wuCI1zyiMkC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2543566140289784 | if-we-guess-local-in-round-4-will-w | 157 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 42} | If we guess “LOCAL” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds? | 1644638340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.792575883984042 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644634666851 | Manifold | Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy
Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1
6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets
Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints.
Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO
Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, VOILA
Result: MACHO ⬜🟨🟩⬜🟨
Round 4 candidates: COCOA, VOCAL, LOCAL | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 221.92115717073938, "YES": 129.6148139681572} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786} | 0 | 1644647697692 | 100 | Manifold | 1644634666851 | 0 | 4 | 1715658361644 | 0 | 0.2543566140289784 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44902841697713497 | jaHZSUbVTSi30zlsqHN4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | whos-da-boss | 134 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 61} | whos da boss | 1645257540000 | HH6nyOCRMgfDs8CGsCxR3Vh3Nhj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 61} | 0 | 2.801705188748449 | True | play | YES | public | 1644635359022 | nick jones | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 173.69225659193904, "YES": 156.80242345065972} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1667855170366 | 100 | nickjones | 1644635359022 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8BBzosvNDfV7a2R04Pv90IYBegT_YiefSIIg=s96-c | 4 | 1650314728624 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779587060}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1645221555530 | 0.44902841697713497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.009260604718390363 | 4jMlMfzJBXPz1YhELnpI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.009260604718390363 | will-the-bengals-be-the-winner-of-s | 9575.11726398962 | {"NO": 3581.4662042973882, "YES": 253.41653171299492} | Will the bengals be the winner of Super Bowl LVI? | 1645430340000 | v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3723, "YES": 194} | 0 | 4.6277457269486835 | True | play | NO | public | 1644636538834 | peeps | The market resolves to yes if the bengals are announced the winners of super bowl LVI | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3916.6206613918635, "YES": 378.661776405969} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 81.8535277187245, "YES": 57.445626465380286} | 0 | 1644967542994 | 100 | peeps | 1644636538834 | 0 | 18 | 1715656982721 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396363}] | ["sports-default"] | 1644665597917 | 0.009260604718390363 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nOi8Qf7idvDkaUq2Avf9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-it-be-heads-or-tails-in-the-su | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will it be Heads or Tails in the Super Bowl? | 1645246740000 | mcHtT6lEf7g3xDXjKiXtNGKdYk73 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | NO | public | 1644637513749 | Matthew Kemph | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644637618913 | 100 | MatthewKemph | 1644637513749 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi38fjXtBfwuHtXppg9Iy_KDKY2DFhW1j5st0ymuYw=s96-c | 1 | 1715658659766 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407539}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181983025}] | ["sports-default", "nfl"] | False | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9881593142326583 | j3xemcb7tImzHViMai36 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9881593142326583 | will-it-be-heads-in-the-super-bowl | 6754.1916810715775 | {"NO": 182.54128480830616, "YES": 1529.2670341201165} | Will it be Heads in the Super Bowl? | 1645246740000 | mcHtT6lEf7g3xDXjKiXtNGKdYk73 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 1676} | 0 | 4.642335919724779 | True | play | YES | public | 1644637687712 | Matthew Kemph | Yes Heads, No Tails. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 197.15176856086032, "YES": 1801.0498506958554} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645292003983 | 100 | MatthewKemph | 1644637687712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi38fjXtBfwuHtXppg9Iy_KDKY2DFhW1j5st0ymuYw=s96-c | 16 | 1715658562108 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406486}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181982989}] | ["sports-default", "nfl"] | 1644818899437 | False | 0.9881593142326583 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06618936777093755 | C7rgNiIdKk7z93qmXG2J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06618936777093755 | will-manifold-markets-implement-a-d | 4435.891834530961 | {"NO": 1099.5896826253895, "YES": 546.518482843649} | Will Manifold Markets implement a dark mode by the ides of March 2022 | 1647327600000 | 8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1194, "YES": 182} | 0 | 4.643345335548648 | True | play | NO | public | 1644638739950 | Elena | this market resolves to YES if by the time it closes the manifold.markets website UI has light text on a dark background either as an option which i am able to locate and enable, or as the default | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1687.3320293957738, "YES": 449.22638846442646} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1647328724202 | 100 | Elena | 1644638739950 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c | 43 | 1715657750221 | 0 | 1647304317107 | 0.06618936777093755 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49962841854934587 | chJ72eSzzNYiBXQG4RbU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.49962841854934587 | this-market-will-resolve-at-whichev | 16 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 8} | This market will resolve at whichever type of share is bought last at close time | 1644901140000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 8} | 0 | 4.9722245532560025 | True | play | NO | public | 1644639986151 | Garrett Baker | In three days, if the most recent share bought is YES, then the market will resolve YES, if it’s a NO, then it will resolve NO.
This is independent of price, so if you buy M$100 of YES, but then another buys M$1 of NO, and they are the last buyer, then the market resolves NO.
Feb 12, 3:52pm: Also note: The market will close only after an hour has passed since the last person bet. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 82.05485969764375, "YES": 81.99390221229868} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644857614989 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644639986151 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 5 | 1715658447111 | 0 | 0.49962841854934587 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05536193590425689 | zOWqfhcn2r3IsdmFaoJT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05536193590425689 | will-lauren-stay-over-at-my-place-f | 309 | {"NO": 282.5, "YES": 26.5} | Will Lauren stay over at my place for two nights? | 1644915600000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 282.5, "YES": 26.5} | 0 | 4.730322555343878 | True | play | NO | public | 1644640675562 | Em ✨ | Starting Saturday. Has said only intends one overnight, max 3. Resolves yes if has not vacated premises by midnight for two nights by Monday midnight. Nonconsecutive two nights counts for yes.
Feb 13, 5:19pm: left during the day with stuff. Still possibility of coming back tomorrow? 🤔 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 397.51729522122685, "YES": 96.23408959407264} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1644893487823 | 100 | hamnox | 1644640675562 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 8 | 1715658970718 | 0 | 0.05536193590425689 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03138211535223222 | bOSGovD48jozU7vLKUe6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.03138211535223222 | will-manifold-markets-add-the-abili | 1123.6068873735144 | {"NO": 579.5597151871053, "YES": 80.47775854945732} | Will Manifold Markets add the ability to follow people by the end of March? | 1648796340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 585, "YES": 61} | 0 | 4.678792706664513 | True | play | NO | public | 1644642459981 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if, by the end of March, Manifold Markets has an option to "follow", "friend", or otherwise pay attention to the content of individual users. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 748.0166201927266, "YES": 134.64062313917867} | {"creatorFee": 3.1163405914894384, "platformFee": 0.7790851478723596, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1648827135702 | 100 | charlie | 1644642459981 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 29 | 1715658392731 | 0 | 1 | 1644841913814 | 0.03138211535223222 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8037672334843196 | HfOG4ohDTHf4P9eoZWiW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8037672334843196 | will-root-and-elena-hook-up-in-marc | 230.99999999999997 | {"NO": 11, "YES": 90.00000000000003} | Will root and Elena hook up in March? | 1646121540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 11, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.8367741249943155 | True | play | YES | public | 1644643416394 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if root and Elena have sex in March 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 89.03931715820826, "YES": 180.20266368730512} | {"creatorFee": 0.44000000000000117, "platformFee": 0.11000000000000029, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1647829501741 | 100 | charlie | 1644643416394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 6 | 1715657889275 | 0 | 1 | 0.8037672334843196 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999269575375357 | q5WCLqTFGtsYE9TdAGzV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4999269575375357 | who-will-win-the-super-bowl | 103.99990310644716 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 51.000096893552836} | Who will win the Super Bowl? | 1645250340000 | c74i8jbZqPTrr0S2t94vbZtVY132 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 51} | 0 | 2.772588781409058 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644643717566 | Christopher Sanders | What team will win the Super Bowl? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 142.84607099952032, "YES": 142.82520486596445} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1680902311123 | 100 | ChristopherSanders | 1663242341926 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwPCUsPCkDQve9j1wSaG1DJu0xiiLAONByJPGc-=s96-c | 4 | 1650314769410 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779564242}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181983089}] | ["please-resolve", "nfl"] | 1663242336946 | False | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39195443218227133 | lnHCz5J9Dxi4CGhMrEcz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.39195443218227133 | will-matthew-stafford-be-named-the | 112 | {"NO": 68, "YES": 44} | Will Matthew Stafford be named the MVP of Super Bowl LVI? | 1644825540000 | QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 68, "YES": 44} | 0 | 4.826429610508467 | True | play | NO | public | 1644644780215 | edavis | This market resolves to YES if Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of Super Bowl LVI and NO if any other player is named MVP. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 165.31182655817457, "YES": 132.72528018429645} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1644808667082 | 100 | edavis | 1644644780215 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c | 3 | 1715658627639 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407059}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.39195443218227133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06442435084028539 | PKWyqlJNVbBVOmiBJa8H | {"NO": 89.36035294224347, "YES": 533.4554874361314} | 0 | will-tower-write-his-infamous-conve | 1227.8809455626192 | {"NO": 403.685890776549, "YES": 35.60171089617228} | Will Tower write his infamous conversion post by August? | 1659337140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 405.5, "YES": 40.5} | 0 | 9.939319011492003 | True | play | NO | public | 1644657913564 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if, by 08/01/22, Tower has publicly posted an essay of at least 100 words purporting to explain the rationale for his conversion to Catholicism.
It is acceptable if the post is not intended to be the entire explanation, so long as it claims to be at least half (so, one post of a two-post series counts).
The ultimate arbiter here is whether Tower himself agrees that the post in question is the conversion post which he has been intending to write. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 521.6211431617423, "YES": 136.9032516945919} | {"creatorFee": 1.0557560535584771, "platformFee": 0.021807429893104704, "liquidityFee": 0.13084457935862823} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1659650925125 | 100.13084457935864 | charlie | 1659111323027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 21 | 1650314570135 | 0 | 1 | 1659111321872 | 1653944721145 | 0.011403467078287965 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8692940228876349 | 2q4PlerIn0BpGr8o5U2s | {"NO": 3785.892071888849, "YES": 92.29466956030272} | 1 | will-the-glowfic-constellation-surp | 5059.869169416414 | {"NO": 117.72753271441672, "YES": 553.1136424289728} | Will the Glowfic Constellation surpass 500 registered users by Halloween? | 1667199540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 113, "YES": 574} | 0 | 5.300506316439171 | True | play | YES | public | 1644658539182 | charlie | This market resolves to "YES" if the number of registered users on the Glowfic Constellation (https://glowfic.com/users) is at least 500 as of 10/31/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 354.2573621927807, "YES": 684.6151025420448} | {"creatorFee": 2.2225862803398018, "platformFee": 0.15551016455966532, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1669147995962 | 160 | charlie | 1668974107077 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 37 | 1650313784110 | 0 | 5 | 36 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390896}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540800}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 1667152757961 | 1668974104889 | 0.9963478539678932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28485223290418094 | sO1jRUZ7FaCU6IjaAriD | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.28485223290418094 | will-joe-burrow-be-named-mvp-of-sup | 131 | {"NO": 94, "YES": 37} | Will Joe Burrow be named MVP of Super Bowl LVI? | 1644798600000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 94, "YES": 37} | 0 | 4.810673090894716 | True | play | NO | public | 1644667470668 | David Glidden | This market resolves to YES if Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of Super Bowl LVI and NO if any other player is named MVP. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 195.34840669941488, "YES": 123.28828005937953} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1644809943509 | 100 | dglid | 1644667470668 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 1715658781921 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408562}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.28485223290418094 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8337950138504155 | oMp164zQMPh0ObanGED5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8337950138504155 | will-the-super-bowl-lvi-halftime-sh | 280 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 220} | Will the Super Bowl LVI halftime show receive mostly positive reviews? | 1644844500000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 220} | 0 | 4.738581663407304 | True | play | YES | public | 1644668716365 | David Glidden | Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige and Kendrick Lamar will headline the halftime show for Super Bowl LVI.
Will resolve YES if, by my judgment of a quick (~5 minute or less) scan of Google News articles for the search term “ super bowl halftime show” on the morning following (Monday, February 14th) around 8:15am ET, the mainstream consensus is that the show clearly went more well than not. If there is not a clear consensus that it went well or a clear consensus it did not go well, this market will resolve to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 346.98703145794946} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1644844766978 | 100 | dglid | 1644668716365 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 4 | 1715658677057 | 0 | 0.8337950138504155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5713988768229689 | M09Rmx3iC3Jy2YydiK3y | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5713988768229689 | what-percent-of-your-manifold-do-yo | 562.360783020855 | {"NO": 135.15880515575594, "YES": 268.48041182338903} | What percent of your $manifold do you like to have in short term investments? | 1646089200000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 280} | 0 | 4.709684012112162 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644674100328 | Duncn | What percent of your $predictions do you prefer to have in markets resolving within ~30 days? Market resolves to PROB. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 320.93023234958844, "YES": 388.14462104144314} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1646092278554 | 100 | Duncn | 1644674100328 | 0 | 7 | 1715657999871 | 0 | 1 | 1646083647680 | 0.5713988768229689 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12456009055383305 | o9rypVAPxi6HD2XxbCla | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.12456009055383305 | aita-for-refusing-to-do-the-dishes | 306.9862830270405 | {"NO": 211.01371697295951, "YES": 30} | AITA for refusing to do the dishes? | 1644739140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 215, "YES": 30} | 0 | 4.75175322359062 | True | play | NO | public | 1644680150690 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if https://www.reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/sqt88v/aita_for_refusing_to_do_the_dishes/ is officially flaired YTA (you're the asshole). It resolves to NO if it's marked NTA (not the asshole).
An official verdict of ESH (everyone sucks here), NAH (no assholes here), or INFO (not enough information) will result in a resolution of N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 319.06929967325937, "YES": 120.35421542151981} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644764835483 | 100 | charlie | 1644680150690 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 8 | 1715658672601 | 0 | 1644684522668 | 0.12456009055383305 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43340720221606654 | dQTkJZ6EyQDVqX4gDSeU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.43340720221606654 | will-my-high-boyfriend-think-an-ott | 90 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 39} | Will my high boyfriend think an otter is cuter than a hedgehog? | 1644695940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 51, "YES": 39} | 0 | 4.84818841182032 | True | play | YES | public | 1644682142932 | charlie | My boyfriend is getting high today, and he likes cute animals. I'm going to show him these pictures, and ask him which he thinks is cuter: https://imgur.com/a/7f2GehF
Market resolves YES if he picks the otter. Market resolves NO if he picks the hedgehog. Market resolves N/A if he can't or won't pick.
I will tell him that there's a bet but not what any of the predictions are, and I'm putting my seed at 50% and not betting further on either side myself so I don't accidentally lead him towards one or the other. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 143.01748144894736, "YES": 125.08397179495061} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644702303919 | 100 | charlie | 1644682142932 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 6 | 1715658465809 | 0 | 1644684970213 | 0.43340720221606654 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04721430085601237 | xSC2vHVJKvG2GvHWObGW | {"NO": 119.00742658907853, "YES": 141.53493146989237} | 0 | will-i-be-recovered-from-my-chronic | 502.52107234760444 | {"NO": 249.24824765469594, "YES": 22.610258989227646} | Will I be recovered from my chronic illness by the end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 249.5, "YES": 22.5} | 0 | 9.032311191148448 | True | play | NO | public | 1644682974651 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if, in the judgment of my doctor, I no longer have idiopathic chronic fatigue or any serious medical condition I have been diagnosed with by my doctor in the meantime, excluding psychiatric diagnoses. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 362.69865582446437, "YES": 82.02703229165184} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1673477910323 | 120 | ozymandias272 | 1670087143034 | 0 | 20 | 1650314821256 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1670087142950 | 1644723610912 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9719151862810673 | 11Yc7IsvlJiIASxxxhg9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9719151862810673 | will-the-order-of-the-stick-update | 805 | {"NO": 54.00000000000003, "YES": 737} | Will the Order of the Stick update before the 20th? | 1645343940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 54, "YES": 737} | 0 | 4.669689427635271 | True | play | YES | public | 1644683205164 | charlie | The webcomic "The Order of the Stick" (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots.html) is currently on #1252. This market resolves to YES if #1253 is posted before 2/20/22. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 149.31845163944075, "YES": 878.3991120214091} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1645210662508 | 100 | charlie | 1644683205164 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 7 | 1715656884163 | 0 | 0.9719151862810673 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7360620539440306 | UExVUhvBq16bIIZVFRBP | {"NO": 730.9474904544797, "YES": 53.54867888062527} | 1 | will-i-get-to-see-my-chemical-roman | 788.1300548069992 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 71} | Will I get to see My Chemical Romance in 2022? | 1667372340000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 71} | 0 | 4.165394134494112 | True | play | YES | public | 1644683531060 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if this year I attend the My Chemical Romance concert that has been canceled twice due to covid. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 118.6844555954991, "YES": 162.2189877911954} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1667400940643 | 120 | ozymandias272 | 1667368742158 | 0 | 14 | 1650314609101 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1667368741962 | 0.9744030270645713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.960411043718792 | JZts4X5yw99PFg5zienl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.960411043718792 | will-we-dont-talk-about-bruno-from | 1071 | {"NO": 34, "YES": 1037} | Will We Don't Talk About Bruno from Encanto still be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on the week starting February 13th? | 1644728340000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 34, "YES": 1037} | 0 | 4.656915149591205 | True | play | YES | public | 1644683627434 | Kira | https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/
Feb 13, 10:17am: It turns out that I know nothing about music and the Billboard Hot 100 updates on Tuesday and is just backdated for Sunday, so this market will resolve Tuesday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 232.99356214281974, "YES": 1147.5865980395554} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1644946269824 | 100 | Kira | 1644683627434 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 8 | 1715657942883 | 0 | 1644712105479 | 0.960411043718792 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6852252880460299 | tJXAXUPDx1RTEngunaf0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6852252880460299 | will-manifold-markets-implement-mut | 373.94615269759004 | {"NO": 61.2, "YES": 168.85384730241} | Will manifold markets implement muting/hiding markets from view by May 1 | 1647283315097 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 61.2, "YES": 185.8} | 0 | 4.755978628545393 | True | play | YES | public | 1644683730237 | Em ✨ | In any form, individually or by community or by tag or by creator.
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 12:00 am
Mar 14, 11:33am: MM now automatically hides some of the more annoying tags from the home feed, unless you opt into a community with that tag. Less directly controllable a feature than I hoped for, but I did say "in any form". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 185.17600787385064, "YES": 273.21308209349377} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 88.31760866327846, "YES": 46.9041575982343} | 0 | 1647283315097 | 100 | hamnox | 1644683730237 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 13 | 1715658814850 | 0 | 1646829830379 | 0.6852252880460299 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5583358230757441 | IXXM6qlOpUkIy29yIwFE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5583358230757441 | will-manifold-markets-do-something | 1023.1128308715805 | {"NO": 441.89117974590147, "YES": 506.995989382518} | Will Manifold Markets do something for April Fool's day? | 1648796340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 442, "YES": 508} | 0 | 4.66166707709173 | True | play | YES | public | 1644683955425 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets does something on their website in an official capacity on 4/1/22 which is (in my judgement) clearly intended as an observance of April Fool's day.
Merely posting a market which refers to April Fool's (e.g. "will a major news station accidentally report on an April Fool's prank under the impression that it's real?") does not count. Posting a market which is itself intended as a prank (e.g. "will the U.N. succeed in diplomatic negotiations with the aliens who just landed?") does.
The observance must be on the website itself, not (e.g.) on Discord. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 697.067541345613, "YES": 783.7481332447385} | {"creatorFee": 17.675647189836063, "platformFee": 4.418911797459016, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1648849849875 | 100 | charlie | 1644683955425 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 33 | 1715657908354 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663302422402}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1648785444435 | 0.5583358230757441 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9272470485948366 | OomeCDlMWbSyTc6yjiJW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9272470485948366 | will-i-lose-or-gain-weight-over-7-d | 858.7749014623657 | {"NO": 71, "YES": 670.2250985376343} | Will I lose or gain weight over 7 days | 1645275540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 71, "YES": 678} | 0 | 4.672824941789708 | True | play | YES | public | 1644684576584 | Undox | Weigh in 13 Feb 8am AEST. Again 7 days layer.
Male about 84kg / 175cm tall - will update with 13 Feb weight. Already lost 6kg over 4 weeks.
Feb 13, 3:49am: YES means success (lost weight)
Feb 13, 3:02pm: Starting weight confirmed 84kg this morning
Feb 13, 8:31pm: good day, stuck to the diet plan. had one small treat about 100 calories but still good overall (a treat is allowed)
Thanks for your faith everyone. It is keeping me motivated ha ha! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 226.90158510176954, "YES": 810.0465030403853} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645299250514 | 100 | Undox | 1644684576584 | 0 | 8 | 1715658094053 | 0 | 1 | 1645189651739 | 0.9272470485948366 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2 | OiRNRiKzYqGs0lMUnyaB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | will-manifold-markets-be-able-to-re | 10 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 2} | Will Manifold Markets be able to remember my preferred market sorting by St. Patrick's Day? | 1647500340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 8, "YES": 2} | 0 | 4.988398938453523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644684590651 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if, on 3/17/22, https://manifold.markets/markets can retain the sort option selected from the dropdown on a hard refresh.
It still counts if this is an optional feature that has to be enabled at the level of user preferences. Also still counts if the URL for the markets page changes.
Market will resolve N/A if the sorting features are significantly reworked such that, in my judgement, this is no longer a meaningful question. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 98.38699100999075, "YES": 49.193495504995376} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1644685128780 | 100 | charlie | 1644684590651 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 1 | 1715658085140 | 0 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13171947312210752 | Ifc1papXk04RXFyX3z1N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.13171947312210752 | aita-for-telling-my-girlfriend-she | 165 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 15} | AITA for telling my girlfriend she needs to get medicated? | 1645351140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 150, "YES": 15} | 0 | 4.787664358140534 | True | play | NO | public | 1644685086651 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if https://www.reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/sqvimm/aita_for_telling_my_girlfriend_she_needs_to_get//aita_for_refusing_to_do_the_dishes/ is officially flaired YTA (you're the asshole). It resolves to NO if it's marked NTA (not the asshole).
An official verdict of ESH (everyone sucks here), NAH (no assholes here), or INFO (not enough information), or the post being deleted before it can be judged, will result in a resolution of N/A.
Feb 12, 11:13am: Correct link: https://www.reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/sqvimm/aita_for_telling_my_girlfriend_she_needs_to_get/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 246.9311644973149, "YES": 96.17692030835673} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644764815641 | 100 | charlie | 1644685086651 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 6 | 1715657916393 | 0 | 1644686132074 | 0.13171947312210752 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5255975412136352 | jRfvyaH4m4wHVf2RtAX8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5255975412136352 | will-manifold-markets-be-able-to-re-ecff84a1b177 | 457.1331947059706 | {"NO": 139, "YES": 155.86680529402943} | Will Manifold Markets be able to remember my preferred market sorting by St. Patrick's Day? | 1645343940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 139, "YES": 157} | 0 | 4.734204786036711 | True | play | YES | public | 1644685159911 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if, on 3/17/22, https://manifold.markets/markets can retain the sort option selected from the dropdown when leaving and returning to the page.
It still counts if this is an optional feature that has to be enabled at the level of user preferences. Also still counts if the URL for the markets page changes.
Market will resolve N/A if the sorting features are significantly reworked such that, in my judgement, this is no longer a meaningful question. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 271.97193533632856, "YES": 286.2709561106835} | {"creatorFee": 5.514672211761178, "platformFee": 1.3786680529402946, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1647829563274 | 100 | charlie | 1644685159911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 8 | 1715658575583 | 0 | 1 | 0.5255975412136352 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6034985422740523 | 25s5YEbRqcDOEJa8QKe1 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6034985422740523 | will-my-dog-wake-us-up-at-night-on | 145 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 90} | Will my dog wake us up at night on night of 13th Feb | 1644843540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 55, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.800492406452837 | True | play | NO | public | 1644685333786 | Undox | Anxious Toy Cavoodle dog.
3yr old. New home. Male. Desexed. Being barking or squeaking at night. Kept in his own room along with a calm dog. AEST time zone.
Feb 13, 3:17pm: New info. He will stay in another room where slightly less likely to be distributed.
Feb 13, 8:30pm: dog is quiet now! fingers crossed ha ha. will resolve in 12 hrs time | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.27248620541513, "YES": 190.3286631067428} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1644784620028 | 100 | Undox | 1644685333786 | 0 | 6 | 1715656914545 | 0 | 0.6034985422740523 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29820847691512836 | iiZ2CM7oBnZX5PPT03sR | {"NO": 213.0499018889347, "YES": 951.9193986162749} | 0 | will-used-car-prices-drop-back-to-p | 2815.0276914515084 | {"NO": 460, "YES": 180} | Will used car prices drop back to pre-chips-shortage levels by Jun 2023? | 1685595600000 | pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 460, "YES": 180} | 0 | 1.4328315185934817 | True | play | NO | public | 1644685538877 | Cedar | This market resolves to whether the Manheim used car price index (https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html) is under 150.6 for Jun 2023.
150.6 is it's 2020 annual average.
Feb 12, 12:09pm: Oh forgot to mention, I'm asking here because I'm thinking of getting a car and the used car prices are atrocious. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 659.0144156238161, "YES": 336.6006535941367} | {"creatorFee": 0.18787597504989914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1689310920266 | 340 | Cedar | 1687968336362 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c | 29 | 1650314723950 | 0 | 9 | 24 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501236}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573919}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "userId": "3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1678370968544}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default", "automotive"] | 0.11648689096986642 | 1685360902548 | 1687968334009 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3747179489502346 | g0p7UHisDSTvGphOiqnP | {"NO": 203.27682622181553, "YES": 194.38485512961716} | 1 | will-a-newtome-song-top-my-spotify | 411.6203002928256 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 18} | Will a new-to-me song top my Spotify Wrapped? | 1669827780000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 18} | 0 | 1.7061347802582418 | True | play | YES | public | 1644685683393 | Blazer | This market resolves to YES if the #1 song on my 2022 Spotify Wrapped playlist is one I do not recall having heard before 2022/01/01. New covers of songs I've heard before count as new songs. My profile is https://open.spotify.com/user/s6ug42p8d49wwx8l0mekkdgbk?si=TKR58S2lQ1uUKAvBDM0cuQ&utm_source=copy-link | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 112.44554237496477, "YES": 88.34591105421914} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1669840147579 | 200 | BlazingDarkness | 1669821902470 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 13 | 1650314704422 | 0 | 12 | 1669821902335 | 0.38525538247841706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13527756201563765 | NSRHoSEAIxZ6BOu6IbZs | {"NO": 119.25467485517783, "YES": 124.85339394037987} | 0 | will-i-finish-only-hymns-upon-our-l | 557.5932555080782 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 6} | Will I finish 'only hymns upon our lips' this year? | 1672559940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 6} | 0 | 5.181996480162621 | True | play | NO | public | 1644686264278 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if I mark 'complete' on AO3 on 'only hymns upon our lips' this year. https://archiveofourown.org/works/30646673/chapters/75611105 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 124.53112060846478, "YES": 49.47726750741192} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1673477937463 | 120 | ozymandias272 | 1670087149348 | 0 | 6 | 1650314557328 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1670087149247 | 1645654964817 | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12204950272128214 | p4X9KBwhhPO6ld5Ssr8x | {"NO": 989.1554521001427, "YES": 1063.1998387312835} | 0.11452304694691717 | will-my-primary-grace-and-i-get-mar | 1431.1243810731808 | {"NO": 339.7968982339473, "YES": 69} | Will my primary grace and I get married by 2024? | 1735718340000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 340, "YES": 69} | 0 | 10.004691546645946 | False | basic | public | 1644686456669 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if Grace and I have had a wedding by January 1, 2024, or if our wedding was delayed due to circumstances beyond our control.
Feb 12, 9:26am: "Circumstances beyond our control" include cancellation due to a pandemic, a really cool venue only being available in February 2025, or similar, but does not include intending to get married with no particular plans. | BINARY | {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 459.49486590577925, "YES": 218.4919949533982} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1000 | ozymandias272 | 1693786968724 | 0 | 23 | 1650314762568 | 0 | 22 | 1693786967779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7760263385018378 | kGdbg7HXTK9f72wRHUEa | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7760263385018378 | will-i-start-an-original-fiction-no | 254.57938295461912 | {"NO": 62, "YES": 175.42061704538088} | Will I start an original fiction novel by the end of July? | 1647534835493 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 62, "YES": 176} | 0 | 4.753110233201791 | True | play | YES | public | 1644686593650 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if, in my judgment, I have started a first draft of such a novel. (Outlining, researching, etc do not count.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 159.68719422671313, "YES": 297.2417750035913} | {"creatorFee": 2.4568246818152355, "platformFee": 0.6142061704538089, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1647534835493 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1644686593650 | 0 | 7 | 1715658591422 | 0 | 1646425452293 | 0.7760263385018378 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9352889105949147 | AxE98HquFwILAWKujr5C | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9352889105949147 | will-westwind-and-nextworldover-hoo | 262 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 250} | Will westwind and nextworldover hook up in 2022? | 1645343940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12, "YES": 250} | 0 | 4.744332248321266 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644687609191 | Ozy Brennan | This market resolves to YES if westwind and nextworldover have gone on a date or performed some sort of sexual activity in 2022, including in a group context.
Feb 12, 10:29am: I have committed to only hook up with nextworldover if I want to and not to gain imaginary internet points. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.0869154657707, "YES": 350.09141663285607} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1644695172299 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1644687609191 | 0 | 4 | 1715657723371 | 0 | 0.9352889105949147 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8097991195982391 | gpwB2N691aW90igmVQGb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8097991195982391 | will-my-oculus-arrive-monday | 154 | {"NO": 29, "YES": 125} | Will my Oculus arrive Monday? | 1644868800000 | NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 29, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.794490768000633 | True | play | YES | public | 1644689903196 | Keller | This question resolves to YES if, by midnight February 14th, I have played a song in Beat Saber. If the Oculus arrives but it is broken, resolves to NO. If it arrives but there's some software bug, resolves to NO. I publicly commit my intent that, upon receipt of the Quest 2 that is theoretically arriving, I will immediately attempt to buy, install, and play a song on Beat Saber. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 110.77454581265502, "YES": 228.57165178560527} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1644891631081 | 100 | Celer | 1644689903196 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c | 7 | 1715658533052 | 0 | 0.8097991195982391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.02550552916932701 | AH4iqjdqr3CcScuhnH9P | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.02550552916932701 | will-queen-elizabeth-be-publicly-co | 889.0581621927286 | {"NO": 637.9418378072714, "YES": 35} | Will Queen Elizabeth be publicly confirmed to have covid within the next week? | 1645333140000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 645, "YES": 35} | 0 | 4.677762962263033 | True | play | NO | public | 1644690815907 | Kira | Resolves to yes if any reputable news source reports a positive test between February 12th and February 19th, and there is no significant pushback from other reputable news sources.
Context: Prince Charles, who met with the Queen two days ago, tested positive. The Queen is fully vaccinated.
Feb 20, 11:49am: All the YESes get a symbolic victory https://www.ksnblocal4.com/2022/02/20/queen-elizabeth-ii-tests-positive-covid-mild-symptoms/ but as far as I can tell this was announced early this morning, so NO it is. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 763.0210250267563, "YES": 123.44229421069586} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1645376074758 | 100 | Kira | 1644690815907 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 19 | 1715657695251 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474717}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.02550552916932701 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2206862891189116 | hCmpV2C75fjW0Opd3pi2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2206862891189116 | private-question-1 | 211.37433871497194 | {"NO": 129, "YES": 39.62566128502806} | Private Question #1 | 1644911940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 129, "YES": 41} | 0 | 4.785527051734238 | True | play | YES | public | 1644691855772 | Ozy Brennan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 237.13936694316143, "YES": 126.19297344390952} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.06623862918075, "YES": 55.677643628300224} | 0 | 1644719899379 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1644691855772 | 0 | 3 | 1715658540516 | 0 | 0.2206862891189116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25048615916955014 | Ox3jb3SKY9g6QUDt2reK | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.25048615916955014 | private-question-2 | 69.99999999999999 | {"NO": 48.449999999999996, "YES": 21.55} | Private question #2 | 1645343940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 48.449999999999996, "YES": 21.55} | 0 | 4.872282915004588 | True | play | NO | public | 1644691890481 | Ozy Brennan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 147.17659460661537, "YES": 85.08260691821802} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1644823636611 | 100 | ozymandias272 | 1644691890481 | 0 | 3 | 1715658096925 | 0 | 0.25048615916955014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2648936320307056 | S9rVASFNaTHu05JEDztU | {"NO": 117.62099505263934, "YES": 127.15324178987699} | 0.24999999999999978 | private-question-3 | 966.0519466426551 | {"NO": 72.5, "YES": 23.84676824816532} | Private question #3 | 1672559940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 72.5, "YES": 24.5} | 0 | 3.1120886487607624 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644692698389 | Ozy Brennan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 168.00297616411441, "YES": 101.6221107904119} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1705149229035 | 120.04398711069466 | ozymandias272 | 1705149229369 | 0 | 15 | 1650314596837 | 0 | 76 | 15 | 1670087155107 | 1705149226466 | 0.25 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05294194624187312 | am3YgQVaQqmt2GO3qTFd | {"NO": 42.55520451820239, "YES": 37.269415894761906} | 0 | will-westwind-and-nextworldover-hoo-06ce76815de9 | 965.0131949472051 | {"NO": 40.5, "YES": 471.7344198585946} | Will westwind and nextworldover hook up in 2022? | 1672559940000 | B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40.5, "YES": 472.5} | 0 | 9.421495441862746 | True | play | NO | public | 1644695238649 | Ozy Brennan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.5492440606462, "YES": 592.406546233136} | {"creatorFee": 0.3605536533332269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 22.36067977499791, "YES": 97.46794344808963} | 0 | 1673057638397 | 140 | ozymandias272 | 1672004482244 | 0 | 19 | 1650314660175 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1672004482127 | 1645267760611 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | sOuNc0smLgftNlKu8Qya | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-normalanomaly-visit-the-united | 10 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will NormalAnomaly visit the United Kingdom during 2022? | 1672560000000 | K7XR7iGzoPZ2vRtwIGk5i4B7sBF3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644695981282 | Normal Anomaly | This market resolves to YES if I have been in the UK (not an embassy or the inside of security in an airport) sometime in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 77.78174593052023} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644697451869 | 100 | NormalAnomaly | 1644695981282 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxbdngpgkIM8GvlAYKbwl-U7JX-f0mgMlR7ZO7H=s96-c | 1 | 1715658783351 | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4892946025239608 | M5WLwRnRDjPI6NG1KsWh | {"NO": 107.60259239491734, "YES": 10206.055048027985} | 0 | will-i-have-completed-my-phd-by-jun | 12872.473164335144 | {"NO": 52.5, "YES": 86.53958127838519} | Will I have completed my PhD by June 14th, 2024? | 1718521140000 | NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52.5, "YES": 87.5} | 0 | 9.911024221126588 | True | basic | NO | public | 1644696062674 | Keller | This market resolves to Yes if I have successfully defended my dissertation by June 14th, 2024. I see no reason why I shouldn't be done by then, but long-term projects are complex. In the event that I drop out of the program, resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4894225788683244} | 0 | {"NO": 161.07943149618887, "YES": 176.6163587174481} | {"creatorFee": 90.50776325059076, "platformFee": 0.026903014501554946, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1718577490440 | 1000 | Celer | 1718521140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c | 33 | 1650314547603 | 0 | 18 | 1718505750976 | 1718574986433 | 0.01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6546647733243998 | GQyPlGFfoO8mNvKIFChW | {"NO": 389.6538622316517, "YES": 51.947358159629886} | 1 | will-normalanomaly-visit-the-uk-in | 455.3366871999177 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 72.66331280008225} | Will NormalAnomaly visit the UK in 2022? | 1654954793385 | il80G6hK9ZMmbY3CkWqq3aZQapP2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 73} | 0 | 3.4569458450458526 | True | play | YES | public | 1644697585664 | NormalAnomaly | This market resolves to YES if I have been in the UK (not an embassy or the inside of security in an airport) sometime in 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 132.94045900328504, "YES": 181.10891330440776} | {"creatorFee": 2.0768266100894173, "platformFee": 0.3461377683482362, "liquidityFee": 2.0768266100894173} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1654954793385 | 102.07682661008943 | Normal_Anomaly | 1654891610777 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GihdsikmF9hcykB1Lf7Dt14U5Qzo877OwDuf3MsaA=s96-c | 10 | 1650313875373 | 0 | 1654891609425 | 1644820267144 | 0.9342961315444491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.96231784234707 | b0HIPB1PqKeZ3utUvt1W | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.96231784234707 | will-the-university-of-maryland-ea | 511.50395828877004 | {"NO": 26.496041711229935, "YES": 464} | Will the University of Maryland EA club have an in-person meeting with 4 or more people before the end of February? | 1646197140000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 464} | 0 | 4.696334478793838 | True | play | YES | public | 1644697648683 | Kira | Feb 12, 5:42pm: The club is new and has never had a meeting before; there seems to be some minimal interest and an attempt to organize a meeting.
Feb 15, 12:33pm: There's a meeting planned for Thursday. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 114.62645776118444, "YES": 579.2636277704254} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1645152835380 | 100 | Kira | 1644697648683 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 4 | 1715658383330 | 0 | 0.96231784234707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.542991778850116 | qvAFvJ5va6D5Cs3Gd18z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.542991778850116 | will-a-communist-revolution-happen | 5345.002753567565 | {"NO": 1588.5711391309512, "YES": 1538.4261073014827} | Will a communist revolution happen? | 1645333140000 | WPlxcrWFNsdpBkEZy6EXU5uP1kM2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1728, "YES": 1498} | 0 | 4.630493622773706 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644699332884 | Crescent Cat | just testing this | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2181.5270437134477, "YES": 2377.908952426348} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645342114974 | 100 | CrescentCat | 1644699332884 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjEP-jCgVMLKTDiM7LcL0qG85kzVevDFYYkm_k_=s96-c | 25 | 1715658753477 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506962}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645313776365 | 0.542991778850116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.684631935163878 | a7gKtLO8Va2BZPzzHdHI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.684631935163878 | this-market-will-resolve-to-whateve | 10733.421863335252 | {"NO": 248.02491919887257, "YES": 1136.553217465875} | This market will resolve to whatever share the person who bets the greatest amount ends up buying. | 1644987540000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 194, "YES": 1162} | 0 | 4.648234411796463 | True | play | YES | public | 1644699993495 | Garrett Baker | If this person ends up betting anonymously, it is impossible to tell if two bets were actually the same, so if the text says "x users spent M$y on YES/NO", then I will use the number y/x, since by the this is a lower-bound for the maximum amount which could have been spent by any particular user.
Feb 15, 11:01am: because April is curious, the market will resolve to N/A if what she is trying works
Feb 15, 11:01am: in general any situation which I don’t have explicitly outlined is going to be resolved as N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 464.03653306910064, "YES": 1410.1923059782248} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644987604563 | 100 | GarrettBaker | 1644699993495 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 20 | 1715658357186 | 0 | 1644989135528 | 0.684631935163878 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6564160817883078 | xbJFXHqtTheOJG39RJOY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6564160817883078 | will-the-mvp-of-the-super-bowl-be-s | 214 | {"NO": 84, "YES": 130} | Will the MVP of the super bowl be someone other than Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford? | 1645336740000 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 84, "YES": 130} | 0 | 4.762662992149478 | True | play | YES | public | 1644707753840 | BCG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 184.05433980213562, "YES": 254.40125785852553} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1644808610003 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1644707753840 | 0 | 4 | 1715658923359 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409376}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.6564160817883078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5675952296190815 | mfxMyNp6EIsEGasfIXZf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-more-than-half-of-the-members | 112 | {"NO": 47, "YES": 65} | Will more than half of the members of the group chat currently known as "Pengu" who watch the Amazon LOTR show like it? | 1659329940000 | UZtg5gvfl0RmeMk3NRbXlT3GqoI3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 47, "YES": 65} | 0 | 2.8242051963015626 | True | play | NO | public | 1644710232232 | Ryan Beck | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.40588222883568, "YES": 159.71850237214224} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1675537163819 | 100 | RyanBeck | 1644710232232 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhHTzJu_h_YawIXwFGGOlW8S5LkWdmRhqMTv9TIy7Y=s96-c | 3 | 1650314748442 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8835386484504583 | 4eK0zTmbMMt6eZpl1Jix | {"NO": 1103.643661673286, "YES": 177.33592891256603} | 1 | will-vienna-teng-perform-in-the-san | 1536.2981578622766 | {"NO": 37.5, "YES": 95.5} | Will Vienna Teng perform in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2022 or January 2023? | 1672298952238 | WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 37.5, "YES": 95.5} | 0 | 3.9379294219318397 | True | play | YES | public | 1644717910422 | Anna | Vienna Teng usually plays two shows at the Freight & Salvage in downtown Berkeley at the end of December each year. She did not do this in 2020 and 2021.
The question resolves YES if she plays at least one concert in the Bay Area (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Solano or Sonoma county) in 2022 or in January 2023 (to account for situations like "she does basically the same thing as usual but this time it's right after New Year's rather than right before").
The question resolves NO otherwise, regardless of why (e.g. covid, personal circumstances, etc.). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 71.76402302163669, "YES": 111.9785291953328} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 1672298952238 | 240 | tcheasdfjkl | 1672105059460 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c | 21 | 1650313795432 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1669234950803}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 1672105059308 | 1670096163287 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17795655827747237 | xr5F5VGNCqoGmYxZrCZW | {"NO": 100.16659497867788, "YES": 717.4878757246343} | 0 | will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34 | 7291.85436916898 | {"NO": 3172.387469042351, "YES": 574.2966558109656} | Will I be pregnant before I turn 34? | 1654239600000 | 8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3179, "YES": 561} | 0 | 4.049087381527902 | True | play | NO | public | 1644717924194 | Elena | This market resolves to YES if I get a positive pregnancy test before June 3rd 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3573.773532943369, "YES": 1125.0742908939756} | {"creatorFee": 26.985436543876297, "platformFee": 4.497572757312717, "liquidityFee": 26.985436543876297} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1654493171143 | 126.97583692458902 | Elena | 1654206789705 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c | 64 | 1650314824805 | 0 | 1 | 1654206789470 | 1651176845136 | 0.029335711434839023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45121210843170717 | e682wfmEZL4xdHYvP1IK | {"NO": 141.6157309523982, "YES": 65.49531724676305} | 0 | will-landsailor-top-my-spotify-wrap | 176.48343162286287 | {"NO": 46.01765049082543, "YES": 21.72963862995234} | Will 'Landsailor' top my Spotify Wrapped? | 1669839389990 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 46.75, "YES": 22.25} | 0 | 2.8731035823348483 | True | play | NO | public | 1644722054863 | Blazer | This market resolves to YES if the # 1 song on my 2022 Spotify Wrapped playlist is Vienna Teng's 'Landsailor'. Initial probability set by the percent we are through the year at the moment this market goes live (adjusting for the fact that Wrapped stops tracking listening at the end of November), given that it's my top song right now and has been for most or all of this year so far. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 50.18808126308476, "YES": 45.50810013527808} | {"creatorFee": 0.024798043558158442, "platformFee": 0.0061995108895396105, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0009327379053088815, "YES": 0.000360555127546399} | 0 | 1669839389990 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1669844336219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 13 | 1650314686822 | 0 | 13 | 1669579721145 | 1669844334375 | 0.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14609338044713344 | H1n62hl3Uf0Gy4JmYTdQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.14609338044713344 | resolves-to-yes-or-no-once-the-prob | 669 | {"NO": 135, "YES": 50.00000000000003} | Resolves to YES or NO once the probability is 5% or below. | 1645361940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 135, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.853775403704678 | True | play | NO | public | 1644724867428 | Undox | So if YES has an implied probability of 5% then the answer is YES. Same with NO. In limbo until then.
Feb 13, 6:26pm: Resolved! If this is popular I could set this up as a bot, so it resolves immediately | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 170.95399966218983, "YES": 70.71138522543595} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644737112645 | 100 | Undox | 1644724867428 | 0 | 2 | 1715657871907 | 0 | 1644727833557 | 0.14609338044713344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010000000000000002 | G27nbPJH2oXw9htHJM4l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010000000000000002 | is-friends-car-going-to-be-broken-i | 25 | {"NO": 24.75, "YES": 0.25} | Is friends car going to be broken into or stolen overnight | 1644778800000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 24.75, "YES": 0.25} | 0 | 5.700548750959896 | True | play | NO | public | 1644734424320 | Em ✨ | Inside the complex gates, but has stuff in it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24.875680915102606, "YES": 2.5001} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001} | 0 | 1644770354638 | 100 | hamnox | 1644734424320 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 1 | 1715657857051 | 0 | 0.010000000000000002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9527443083358242 | w8xxwwe0ZFNXxqkH6rfe | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9527443083358242 | my-car-is-still-on-the-side-of-the | 78 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 72.5} | My car is still on the side of the road and not broken into come morning | 1644775200000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5.5, "YES": 72.5} | 0 | 5.1079458396866935 | True | play | YES | public | 1644734581680 | Em ✨ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 16.956149327603836, "YES": 76.13570122472112} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.00014142135623730956, "YES": 0.0009899494936611666} | 0 | 1644770384760 | 100 | hamnox | 1644734581680 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 1715658868234 | 0 | 0.9527443083358242 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8043942579004452 | tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6 | {"NO": 6689.949352066367, "YES": 11742.825184568048} | 0.7008507366696544 | will-at-least-10-world-cities-have | 65594.86399869669 | {"NO": 1667.8661046502862, "YES": 894.3184785054199} | Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025? | 1735686000000 | 9LvwW4Wkw6YQShBHnYMvTVj2srx1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1695.75, "YES": 901.25} | 0.05300407126128323 | 3.880562585101716 | False | plus | public | 1644739447251 | intellectronica | Resolved to YES if on 2025-01-01:
- 10 cities with more than 300,000 inhabitants
- Have a taxi service of fully self-driving cars (no test, backup or remote human driver - passengers are the only humans in the car and they control where the car is going by specifying a destination).
- The service is generally available (anyone can register for the service and order rides with no restrictions other than the obvious ones that would be placed on similar human-operated services like Uber and Lyft - for example: need a smartphone, credit card), subject to availability (supply constraints are OK).
- It is reasonable to assume that the service is not considered a restricted experiment by the operating company or local authorities (based on publicly available media and reports).
Mar 4, 8:27pm: John Carmack is betting quite a lot of real money on a very similar proposition, but 5 years later: https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1499803694522589187 | https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/ | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.05022964480989789, "month": 0.475591499372082} | 0 | {"NO": 2247.2910435282297, "YES": 1230.6412670671925} | {"creatorFee": 676.2668059155723, "platformFee": 17.977547934359084, "liquidityFee": 4.735954708624374} | {"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386} | 0 | 11000 | intellectronica | 1720204040938 | 1.3 | 14 | 381 | 1650314791247 | 1 | 148 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455380}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529589030}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039683}] | ["ai", "technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.1597501036666356 | 1719873035373 | 1720204038814 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46683700801525574 | WcKAit4SNQOGfB3JXkTe | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.46683700801525574 | rugpull-pure-and-simple | 112 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 54} | Rugpull. Pure and simple. | 1645361940000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 54} | 0 | 4.982842561944413 | True | play | YES | public | 1644744179290 | Undox | I will resolve with the outcome most profitable to me. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.78090241920788, "YES": 76.52521153515357} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644817906713 | 100 | Undox | 1644744179290 | 0 | 4 | 1715658270686 | 0 | 0.46683700801525574 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3299999999999999 | wRW8McYUUcpOklCUbQus | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3299999999999999 | will-i-get-a-web3-gig-this-quarter | 190 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 33} | Will I get a web3 gig this quarter | 1646624877676 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 67, "YES": 33} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644745361376 | Undox | Experience web developer. Completed Ethereum Udemy course. Building portfolio of example web3 apps now using React.
Feel free to reach out and offer a gig if you want to fix it ha ha!
Any agreed paid contract counts even if half hour job. Job doesn’t have to be complete. Deadline 31 March
To count as web3 must involve smart contracts or at least interfacing with existing ones via JS on front or back end. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 81.8543462540017, "YES": 57.446200921644945} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029} | 0 | 1646624877676 | 100 | Undox | 1644745361376 | 0 | 4 | 1715658877169 | 0 | 0.3299999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23 | cLMp2bBwziRqAUczlsgg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.23 | how-many-points-will-the-los-angele | 114 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 27} | How many points will the Los Angeles Rams score in Super Bowl LVI? | 1644805800000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 73, "YES": 27} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644753748618 | David Glidden | Resolves to PROB of final points scored by the Rams. i.e. if they score 27 points, this market resolves to 27%.
Market closes 9:30pm ET, which should be sometime in the 2nd half.
Feb 13, 7:05am: Sibling market for Bengals here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-points-will-the-cincinnati | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 85.44089185354984, "YES": 51.962043842308596} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632} | 0 | 1644809905770 | 100 | dglid | 1644753748618 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 1715658426546 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405610}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2 | ySajHbcRIGDpmLXllnNZ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | how-many-points-will-the-cincinnati | 105 | {"NO": 81, "YES": 24} | How many points will the Cincinnati Bengals score in Super Bowl LVI? | 1644805800000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 81, "YES": 24} | 0 | 5.003052247763852 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644753907254 | David Glidden | Resolves to PROB of final points scored by the Bengals. i.e. if they score 24 points, this market resolves to 24%.
Market closes 9:30pm ET, which should be sometime in the 2nd half.
Feb 13, 7:06am: Sibling market for Rams here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-points-will-the-los-angele | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.87175028371115, "YES": 48.990284753612116} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008717797887081347, "YES": 0.0004898979485566356} | 0 | 1644809931401 | 100 | dglid | 1644753907254 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 2 | 1715658951088 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409712}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016013253229459835 | Glqq7oUD6cAAZEP2BOwx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016013253229459835 | will-masks-still-be-required-to-be | 510.23829459793524 | {"NO": 431.85565105987564, "YES": 31.906054342189094} | Will masks still be required to be worn indoors in Washington, DC on March 1st? | 1646110740000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 432, "YES": 32} | 0 | 4.717404184288423 | True | play | NO | public | 1644758214118 | David Glidden | On January 26th, DC mayor Muriel Bowser extended the District’s indoor mask mandate through the end of February: https://mayor.dc.gov/release/mayor-bowser-extends-limited-public-health-emergency-until-february-15-extends-indoor-mask
This market resolves YES if the mask mandate is extended beyond February or otherwise a new mandate is put in place requiring masks to be worn in indoor public places on March 1st.
Feb 28, 7:08pm: per comments, looking for whether the same or a similar mandate will be in effect. To be specific, I’ll look for the requirement by the government to wear a mask when entering a retail store like Old Navy (regardless of that particular store’s policies). | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 460.03454535669636, "YES": 58.68614828304887} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661} | 0 | 1646180819060 | 100 | dglid | 1644758214118 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 10 | 1715657870468 | 0 | 1 | 1646091628527 | 0.016013253229459835 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08717318932908656 | qv8HNYTfLgj684uaH9py | {"NO": 95.36063091056897, "YES": 164.45027003883075} | 0 | will-i-move-to-new-york-city-this-s | 762.5268842359992 | {"NO": 246, "YES": 102.3675107206738} | Will I move to New York City this summer? | 1664596740000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 246, "YES": 85} | 0 | 8.56725682570407 | True | play | NO | public | 1644758524005 | Blazer | This market resolves to YES if I contribute rent towards and live in an apartment for at least ten days in (or within commuting distance to) New York City on or before September 30th, 2022.
My housemate intends to move from semi-rural NYS to NYC; I intend to follow her. Our lease is up at the end of July. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 332.83813937369223, "YES": 102.85617259065627} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755} | 0 | 1664766495009 | 100 | BlazingDarkness | 1664594719265 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 15 | 1650314774495 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1664594717933 | 1648158371664 | 0.05247125673345177 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21868278309780462 | dUZwiQm5gvhyz7Laijpw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.21868278309780462 | will-kanye-west-release-an-album-on | 3465.973345638213 | {"NO": 993.4867998220299, "YES": 292.53985453975827} | Will Kanye West release an album on February 22nd 2022? Kanye is notorious for delaying album releases at the last minute. | 1645505940000 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1008, "YES": 300} | 0 | 4.653248616532391 | True | play | NO | public | 1644762179115 | Oliver S | Feb 18, 10:17am: Kanye has announced that the album will only be available on his $200 STEM player. If the album gets released this way the market will still resolve to YES.
Feb 18, 2:17pm: Kanye has released a tracklist on his IG. I think this market is too bearish. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1136.747492368319, "YES": 601.3919407321822} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645596137501 | 100 | OliverS | 1644762179115 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 20 | 1715658468772 | 0 | 1 | 1645468454051 | 0.21868278309780462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07691441792165009 | puaisGoVtjqzVuPoXAqP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.07691441792165009 | will-manifold-markets-enable-login | 1541.3270402865414 | {"NO": 982.2596682082266, "YES": 308.41329150523217} | Will Manifold Markets enable login with username (or email) and password by April? | 1648753460489 | 9LvwW4Wkw6YQShBHnYMvTVj2srx1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 987, "YES": 296} | 0 | 4.653113985778196 | True | play | NO | public | 1644762632931 | intellectronica | Manifold requires users to log in with their Google ID, which is undesirable to some users. Will a feature be added where users can use a username or email and password combination to log in directly and without required a connected Google account? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1240.045246133229, "YES": 357.94840106473254} | {"creatorFee": 12.34202413158857, "platformFee": 3.0855060328971424, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648753460489 | 100 | intellectronica | 1644762632931 | 0 | 32 | 1715658720535 | 0 | 1648661404738 | 0.07691441792165009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9937064493649825 | gb34wjWd9joBezQkrIFX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9937064493649825 | will-the-montgomery-county-md-mask | 1216.0408418056054 | {"NO": 22.999999999999996, "YES": 1190.9591581943946} | Will the Montgomery County, MD mask mandate expire on Feb 21? | 1645419540000 | F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 22.999999999999996, "YES": 1191} | 0 | 4.655466131708124 | True | play | YES | public | 1644771236781 | tigrennatenn | Context: https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/montgomery-county-md-maryland-mask-mandate-cdc/65-63be5a6d-0622-4b40-a88b-450c4cb29405
Feb 13, 11:30pm: This should really resolve on Feb 22, not Feb 20
Feb 20, 11:28pm: Actually going to let the market close now and resolve it tomorrow | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 96.3057679963478, "YES": 1210.1340689088931} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159} | 0 | 1645561926721 | 100 | tigrennatenn | 1644771236781 | 0 | 10 | 1715658527395 | 0 | 1 | 1644772035781 | 0.9937064493649825 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38525263545494853 | lUmu3W1Avzn83oPAflD7 | {"NO": 75.33765369749494, "YES": 1133.1105287102118} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-implement-acc | 2907.8997838202367 | {"NO": 80.1180037581403, "YES": 287.9912006194898} | Will Manifold Markets implement access control (private markets) by end of 2022 | 1672549140000 | F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 291} | 0 | 2.330248303113266 | True | play | NO | public | 1644771780662 | tigrennatenn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 13, 11:31pm: I made this resolve at the wrong time, I will resolve it as N/A unless they add the ability to edit resolve time before then. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Apr 17, 12:58am: Private instances don't count, only the main Manifold site.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ETA: \"Private\" means it can't be viewed by anyone on the Internet with the URL. Delisting from search results etc. doesn't count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 128.21990465707438, "YES": 345.05764535316604} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1674081580489 | 340 | tigrennatenn | 1672546731159 | 0 | 34 | 1650314739845 | 0 | 4 | 32 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529558055}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 1672546731001 | 1662951593433 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.016590566417573258 | KQNaa720MuXvassFoZGk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.016590566417573258 | will-i-make-an-ea-forum-post-in-the | 343.89216404221963 | {"NO": 296.0078359577804, "YES": 32.1} | Will I make an EA forum post in the next two weeks? | 1646024340000 | iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 296.9, "YES": 32.1} | 0 | 4.756755998899752 | True | play | NO | public | 1644772512597 | Kira | I recently had a conversation on discord which surfaced some thoughts that I think would make a good post. A friend offered to compile the contents of the conversation into a document so that I had a starting point from which to edit; I told her there was a >50% chance that I would make a post if she did.
Resolves to YES if I make any top level post on the EA Forum before February 27th.
I commit to not betting on this market, but any other insider trading is allowed and encouraged. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 325.37569674617623, "YES": 42.261852781320414} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285} | 0 | 1646167805241 | 100 | Kira | 1644772512597 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c | 13 | 1715657953192 | 0 | 1 | 0.016590566417573258 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.027404983620744776 | sWY2TNMQq61PG2uN1Y8G | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.027404983620744776 | will-the-cat-question-be-top-of-mos | 192.73567979372854 | {"NO": 162.5, "YES": 10.764320206271469} | Will the cat question be top of Most Traded when it resolves? | 1648796340000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 162.5, "YES": 10.5} | 0 | 4.868012687441014 | True | play | NO | public | 1644773461158 | charlie | This market resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/JamesMedlock/will-midnight-the-stray-cat-allow-h is the top-ranked question under the "Most Traded" sorting when it is marked as resolved.
If the question is not resolved promptly after 4/1/22, if the cat question is resolved to N/A, or if the "Most Traded" sorting no longer exists at that time, this market resolves N/A. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 170.8746607986216, "YES": 28.68312192104968} | {"creatorFee": 0.4305728082508585, "platformFee": 0.10764320206271462, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1649726181621 | 100 | charlie | 1644773461158 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 10 | 1715658786279 | 0 | 1 | 0.027404983620744776 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06861870301345507 | MIubhQ0THhIfP4iKblGh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.06861870301345507 | will-opening-day-for-major-league-b | 802.1266784265385 | {"NO": 428.3070710777952, "YES": 111.56625049566628} | Will Opening Day for Major League Baseball occur on March 31, 2022? | 1646944827336 | QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 430, "YES": 105} | 0 | 4.703615208398357 | True | play | NO | public | 1644773828815 | edavis | This market will resolve to YES if Major League Baseball (MLB) begins the 2022 regular season on March 31, 2022 and NO if the regular season begins on any other day or if the 2022 season is canceled.
Mar 1, 2:23pm: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1498783115103326213 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 521.0224390692983, "YES": 141.4210065042835} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937} | 0 | 1646944827336 | 100 | edavis | 1644773828815 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c | 7 | 1715658008121 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400892}] | ["sports-default"] | 1644776825561 | 0.06861870301345507 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8817315167822535 | o35Oq0Eki9gi23kTHjjA | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8817315167822535 | will-this-question-set-the-record-f | 100823.43682148743 | {"NO": 4843.276586335145, "YES": 40501.28659217745} | Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15? | 1647403140000 | fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5208, "YES": 40043} | 0 | 4.616222565206536 | True | play | YES | public | 1644774146771 | Sam | Can we do it?
This question will resolve YES if this question's total money pool exceeds all current and previous questions on the platform. As far as I can tell, the current Russia-Ukraine question holds the record with approximately $19,000 of pooled money. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8474.623437834898, "YES": 44545.597516770926} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645053540215 | 100 | sam | 1644774146771 | 0 | 77 | 1715658669946 | 0 | 1645053523381 | 0.8817315167822535 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8159969827380599 | FVXvOMNlUKpfB1f3jzEM | {"NO": 108.50862258555712, "YES": 167.6402047372159} | 0 | will-i-do-a-pullup-before-halloween | 301.5376630436729 | {"NO": 21.5, "YES": 100.37306098092499} | Will I do a pull-up before Halloween? | 1667199540000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 21.5, "YES": 101.5} | 0 | 3.3429102153792796 | True | play | NO | public | 1644774174302 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if I can do a full pull-up before 10/31/22. (I'll count a chin-up, too.)
Relevant data: I've never done either before. I don't have any kind of real training regimen but I have a pull-up bar in my house and I do a couple of negative pull-ups or hang for a while most days. I'm transmasc and have been on testosterone supplements for about a year, with a dose increase coming up in a month or so. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 39.44296847618253, "YES": 115.31495556851722} | {"creatorFee": 0.15122718472363353, "platformFee": 0.0017280299420282576, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1669148021924 | 160 | charlie | 1667758861593 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 0 | 20 | 1650313869311 | 0 | 5 | 20 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1667769690281}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1667178051723 | 1667758860421 | 0.7416319731681427 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9044933446964896 | jIEETNNI2tBlr1G4CV0X | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9044933446964896 | will-david-do-1570-or-more-pushups | 504.5775901237035 | {"NO": 51.90778516977713, "YES": 231.51462470651938} | Will David do 1,570 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 20th? | 1645419540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 52, "YES": 237} | 0 | 4.7773276535184905 | True | play | YES | public | 1644778833036 | David Glidden | I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Saturday, February 12th, I had done 1,342 push-ups.
How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 20th? Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row for this date on the below spreadsheet is equal to or greater than 1,570, indicating the total number of push-ups I will have done through that date.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-DZ4VDkVs94HdE8jFkhp8Ek8Ya-6398Gcxp_dpBXZpA/edit
Full history of daily push-up counts is also available on the sheet. I update my counts throughout the day so a number listed does not mean it is final. I commit to not betting on this market myself.
Feb 13, 2:00pm: previous week’s market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-david-do-1350-or-more-pushups
Feb 20, 7:01pm: following week's market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-david-do-1830-or-more-pushups | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 77.96077419128987, "YES": 272.49026946553863} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1645399730359 | 100 | dglid | 1644778833036 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 1715658570207 | 0 | 0.9044933446964896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45109211157824436 | xNl2mO3xvyq0AoeYpv6m | {"NO": 130.46064390679715, "YES": 720.50716099887} | 0 | will-i-get-a-drivers-license-before | 1383.6747321773864 | {"NO": 14.5, "YES": 48.5} | Will I get a driver's license before Christmas? | 1671955140000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 14.5, "YES": 48.5} | 0 | 1.4981763312201855 | True | play | NO | public | 1644780871746 | charlie | This market resolves to YES if I have a driver's license before 12/25/22. (It's fine if it's the temporary paper one because the official card is still in the mail.)
Data: I'm 26, I've never been behind the wheel before, I passed the knowledge test and got my learner's permit last week. No one else in my household drives. I put off learning for a long time because of narcolepsy-related concerns, and then after I got the all-clear from my neurologist, there was this whole pandemic and the DMV offices were closed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 21.225668434704243, "YES": 59.31776294247786} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1671997591540 | 340 | charlie | 1671955082399 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 22 | 1650314820312 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1671955082234 | 1667363994014 | 0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9779400464161454 | cK7Oyp02KfHl4BU4GdiX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9779400464161454 | will-sabriel-and-westwind-hook-up-i | 1055 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 996} | Will Sabriel and westwind hook up in Feb 2022? | 1646121540000 | h8aFdc2aWmWXPOz2lZoOMpXsKYU2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35, "YES": 996} | 0 | 4.662455384902861 | True | play | YES | public | 1644783076058 | Sabriel Star | This market resolves to YES if Sabriel and westwind have performed some sort of sexual activity in February 2022, including in a group context. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 78.86742039746197, "YES": 1027.9800542816238} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888} | 0 | 1644821482015 | 100 | SabrielStar | 1644783076058 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzMKxycrJwWwKkHzfw1mIZGrabpWNZoUgdy8V-0=s96-c | 8 | 1715658425142 | 0 | 0.9779400464161454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6124064615633407 | ERnswlICBgJzbiJ69oUd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6124064615633407 | will-our-kid-feel-well-enough-to-wa | 159 | {"NO": 62.75, "YES": 96.25} | Will our kid feel well enough to watch a movie with us today? | 1644811200000 | rR0GrrJUWJXOUvtbDvcTbeWQSJf1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 62.75, "YES": 96.25} | 0 | 4.887798837664028 | True | play | NO | public | 1644786104816 | Elliot Lindsey | This resolves to YES if by 8pm PST our kid, who has been sick all weekend and spent the morning in bed, feels up to watching a movie today, as is our weekend tradition. The movies we watch are aimed at children and average about an hour long. I will be asking him about it throughout the rest of the day but am not going to force him if he doesn't want to. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 98.98926962226766, "YES": 124.42846338619633} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1644808884987 | 100 | elliotlindsey | 1644786104816 | 0 | 7 | 1715657812787 | 0 | 0.6124064615633407 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3509969202361734 | hvxHPFcvapmT8VxxnCxb | {"NO": 70.2745588360556, "YES": 204.80931521183282} | 0 | will-bobbibella-get-a-modeling-cont | 981.5580476261965 | {"NO": 330.4737973985543, "YES": 280.96815497524915} | Will Bobbi/Bella get a modeling contract this spring? | 1651377540000 | ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 340, "YES": 285} | 0 | 3.1340390462450434 | True | play | NO | public | 1644787155014 | Blazer | This market resolves to YES if Bobbi/Bella (https://manifold.markets/BellaKitt) signs a contract to work for a modeling agency before 2022/05/01.
She is traveling to New York City for the month of March with the intent of pursuing runway and/or commercial modeling, and with the likely outcome of moving there later.
Initial probability left at 50% because the whole point of this prediction market is that I don't know what the chances are! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 491.84713635886413, "YES": 363.24768197908435} | {"creatorFee": 1.172464326378883, "platformFee": 0.19777368751109817, "liquidityFee": 1.1441087290034713} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1652526559762 | 101.14410872900346 | BlazingDarkness | 1644787155014 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c | 14 | 1650314719644 | 0 | 1 | 1651353876970 | 0.15652301582260644 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6914925337042479 | GSllQHowv8GVdP71k37F | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6914925337042479 | will-i-get-out-of-bed-before-9-am-t | 54.34875969101512 | {"NO": 10.75, "YES": 22.901240308984878} | Will I get out of bed before 9 am tomorrow? | 1644836400000 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10.75, "YES": 23.25} | 0 | 5.516919874042893 | True | play | YES | public | 1644788314464 | jskf | This market resolves to YES if I am awake and outside my bedroom 3 hours before market close. I will not place any new bets on this market myself.
Feb 14, 1:36am: It is 01:36 am and I am going to bed. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 18.69161473992923, "YES": 27.983867070648525} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855} | 0 | 1644857272483 | 100 | jskf | 1644788314464 | 0 | 6 | 1715657867634 | 0 | 1644789665542 | 0.6914925337042479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1361158491018415 | fifbf0KOlk563tYj2Fw9 | {"NO": 118.98441869353384, "YES": 126.62085649705057} | 0.12896546049520508 | will-john-mcguire-ipo-his-startup-b | 700.0950764177323 | {"NO": 88, "YES": 13} | Will John McGuire IPO his startup by 2030? | 1860566340000 | s3ksA5chttgb3NKRb1WGAabpeWB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 88, "YES": 13} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1644794864224 | C.J. Jameson | This resolves to yes if any company in which John McGuire owns more than 1% pre-IPO and is actively involved in, lists and completes an initial public offering of stock on a major US stock exchange | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 93.80925327962056, "YES": 37.430281860012755} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546} | 0 | 120 | cjcjameson | 1681232542197 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiTS2mu6C2MNRkuBtZn1HUISWfNmw8Y1ofYovqLn3g=s96-c | 5 | 1650314702130 | 0 | 4 | [] | [] | 1681232542083 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6135701998277304 | MsF7iSS7bgEuKRpHF3Fz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6135701998277304 | test-resolving-to-na | 40 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 21} | [TEST] Resolving to N/A | 1646207940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17, "YES": 21} | 0 | 5.447450153243938 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644795224548 | Austin | Feb 16, 10:12am: t google.com, bl
Feb 16, 10:12am: test https://google.com, and other stuff (https://google.com)
Feb 17, 12:55pm: supsup
Feb 17, 12:55pm: dupdup
Close date updated to 2022-03-02 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-03 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-01 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 23.62274328904245, "YES": 29.76645764111007} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1648717152968 | 100 | Austin | 1644795224548 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 6 | 1715658033275 | 0 | 1 | 1644795277360 | 0.6135701998277304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7936475561673106 | f7u9DGEVdnP30U7zNvxn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7936475561673106 | will-i-be-on-a-leave-of-absence-for | 2468.3888277241786 | {"NO": 466.7071105679356, "YES": 550.904061707886} | Will I be on a leave of absence for most of March-May | 1648591552245 | v0CLvsusyUfPcTKlU1cD0t8szKg1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 247, "YES": 616} | 0 | 4.663063181150746 | True | play | YES | public | 1644795786068 | Yafah Edelman | Resolves to "YES" if the total amount of time I am paid by my University for being a grad student in March to May 2022 is less than half. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 462.26083718125795, "YES": 906.5591274552363} | {"creatorFee": 16.064446891032865, "platformFee": 4.016111722758216, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759} | 0 | 1648591552245 | 100 | YafahEdelman | 1644795786068 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5U2qG9PuuzeYFQ3soc50IKG8q2nYtTIbAerOWTdw=s96-c | 10 | 1715658498620 | 0 | 1644799632838 | 0.7936475561673106 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9811929278975033 | ovWvPY4jF0GnqbsCJsdb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9811929278975033 | will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-c2d925ddc4b9 | 43218.57641110949 | {"NO": 1212.3242062719078, "YES": 10161.099382618608} | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 42% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT? | 1647218478269 | wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1185.5, "YES": 10304.5} | 0 | 4.619506902572502 | True | play | YES | public | 1644795913711 | Snehadri Das | This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 42% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 42% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1559.738697230988, "YES": 11265.966539784304} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647218478269 | 100 | SnehadriDas | 1644795913711 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c | 29 | 1715658693505 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504983}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.9811929278975033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7120067358576275 | ijxnD1Qf0Wpcyan84tvB | {"NO": 92.64879095780805, "YES": 103.25911665566144} | 0 | will-i-eat-sugar-snap-peas-from-my | 88.28340662218827 | {"NO": 12.541647730948384, "YES": 20.399603993687265} | Will I eat sugar snap peas from my garden before Independence Day? | 1656917940000 | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 12.5, "YES": 20.5} | 0 | 3.3797374922742396 | True | play | NO | public | 1644795927183 | charlie | I've just planted sugar snap peas. This market resolves to YES if I eat at least one sugar snap pea, grown in my garden, before Independence Day.
It resolves to NO if I do not, for any reason, including but not limited to: the peas don't grow; I move before then; animals get there first; I develop an unexpected pea allergy; I attempt to cook all of the peas at once and fuck up dramatically and ruin them.
Data: I live in the Pacific Northwest. The peas are manured and mulched and they have a wire fence to climb on. I like sugar snap peas, and imaginary money is definitely not motivational enough to prevent me from eating ones I grew. Last year I planted carrots, broccoli, and sunflowers; the broccoli never produced flowers and the sunflowers got eaten by animals but the carrots were delicious. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 17.678376636444874, "YES": 27.79688738310929} | {"creatorFee": 0.6823995041406564, "platformFee": 0.00805269185838734, "liquidityFee": 0.04229239077155992} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1659650974914 | 100.04229239077156 | charlie | 1656917612144 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 9 | 1650314724388 | 0 | 1 | 1656917610845 | 0.6892734182471826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9880829353543643 | VmDn2mvvo2BMVusGuK2n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9880829353543643 | how-much-more-will-manifold-spend-o | 2598.3183723447637 | {"NO": 45.079877454016696, "YES": 742.6017502012196} | How much more will Manifold spend on Firebase in February? | 1646121540000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 49, "YES": 743} | 0 | 4.676626702353006 | True | play | YES | public | 1644797144995 | Manifold | This market resolves to the dollar amount of Manifold Market's total Firebase spending in February; each % corresponds to $3 of Firebase spend.
See https://manifold.markets/analytics to see our daily traffic patterns.
Firebase spending as of Feb 13 is $167: https://i.imgur.com/GZEopOo.png
Mar 2, 10:05am: Final spending in Feb: $791. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 85.98761728523219, "YES": 782.975128330055} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0006855654600401045, "YES": 0.0007280109889280518} | 0 | 1646233767138 | 100 | Manifold | 1644797144995 | 0 | 15 | 1715658253425 | 0 | 1 | 1645060174263 | 0.9880829353543643 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2588430440792094 | pdpVTqWSdCEtkGUJ9ARq | {"NO": 93.20720610487794, "YES": 540.3042504660314} | 0 | will-the-ps5-be-in-stock-all-day-on | 541.9396760536983 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 55} | Will the PS5 be in stock all day on October 31, 2022? | 1666328340000 | rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 55} | 0 | 3.045255913339125 | True | play | NO | public | 1644797331567 | Tobias Pace | This market resolves yes if any model of the PS5 gaming console is available for purchase at MSRP or lower from any reputable online retailer during the entire 24 hour period of 00:00 to 23:39 UTC on October 31, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 92.19636652737461, "YES": 105.3570595648436} | {"creatorFee": 1.2535297509365635, "platformFee": 0.20892162515609392, "liquidityFee": 1.2535297509365635} | {"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417} | 0 | 1667206696561 | 181.25352975093656 | TobiasPace | 1666326188702 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c | 9 | 1650314766618 | 0 | 3 | 10 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665688865489}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1665688868440}] | ["gaming", "technology-default"] | 1666326188533 | 0.05682379703685703 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9801017396552416 | 3kIhIaErRyHG9WnlqYmv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9801017396552416 | will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-2ba77cb080e3 | 2731.219987170609 | {"NO": 205.5, "YES": 2465.280012829391} | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 40% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT? | 1647218510440 | wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 205.5, "YES": 2471.5} | 0 | 4.633665109440664 | True | play | YES | public | 1644799766007 | Snehadri Das | This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 40% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 40% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 376.74355756033447, "YES": 2644.075549285} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647218510440 | 100 | SnehadriDas | 1644799766008 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c | 22 | 1715656946301 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468804}] | ["politics-default"] | 1647145873456 | 0.9801017396552416 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7463113481448468 | qYQWarti5krgtk9o2ZNp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7463113481448468 | will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-e528e78037db | 541.5609858326802 | {"NO": 110.60907508041527, "YES": 269.82993908690446} | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 38% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT? | 1645487940000 | wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 111, "YES": 271} | 0 | 4.738447499391898 | True | play | YES | public | 1644799818682 | Snehadri Das | This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 38% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 38% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight.
His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 191.6181793616081, "YES": 328.6595163961833} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647218526745 | 100 | SnehadriDas | 1644799818682 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c | 16 | 1715658739950 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506470}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.7463113481448468 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05263116261882447 | t5kvD0XHXt0GOhQiydaz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05263116261882447 | will-donald-trump-be-more-than-or-e | 947 | {"NO": 847, "YES": 100} | Will Donald Trump be more than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics General Election polling average on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT? | 1647218552974 | wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 847, "YES": 100} | 0 | 4.666545675746046 | True | play | NO | public | 1644800138788 | Snehadri Das | This market resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is greater than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics.
This market resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is less than 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics.
The polling average can be found at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 921.7432907271418, "YES": 217.25607011197638} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1647218552974 | 100 | SnehadriDas | 1644800138788 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c | 12 | 1715658800196 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508717}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867657}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181891140}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | False | 0.05263116261882447 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3520765948154037 | 8NA9g76zfZ77VB3XmGkj | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | if-we-open-source-our-frontend-code | 1116.2798613399418 | {"NO": 508.9135412289993, "YES": 290.80659743105895} | If we open source our frontend codebase, how many meaningful contributions will we get in the first 30 days? | 1651388340000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 509, "YES": 302} | 0 | 3.0385377580478687 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644800436157 | Manifold | "Meaningful contribution" will be fairly subjective, but it could look like "pull request that clearly took more than 1 hour of effort" or "catching and reporting serious bug". We'll use the PROB resolution mechanism, with each 5% = 1 meaningful contribution.
Note that this question closes in 2 weeks, but we won't resolve this market until the end of the year (with up to a 30-day extension into Jan 30 2023 if we open source our codebase on New Year's Eve.)
Feb 13, 5:00pm: the question actually closes in 4 weeks
Feb 18, 2:10pm:
- If open sourced before Jan 1 2023: resolution will be 30d after open source date
- If not: resolve to N/A on Jan 1 2023
Close date updated to 2022-04-13 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 643.7250503442518, "YES": 474.5228752958393} | {"creatorFee": 0.6312581560823992, "platformFee": 0.1578145390205998, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005} | 0 | 1661148342265 | 100 | Manifold | 1661148321049 | 0 | 27 | 1650313817859 | 0 | 1 | 1661148319168 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04907797279038836 | 7AXLzyBCAFCfwh3OfztI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04907797279038836 | will-nordstream-2-be-explicitly-can | 1010.5312593378089 | {"NO": 649, "YES": 120.46874066219101} | Will NordStream 2 be explicitly canceled by April 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT? | 1649977140000 | wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 649, "YES": 125} | 0 | 4.678036738552963 | True | play | NO | public | 1644800508087 | Snehadri Das | This market resolves to "YES" if a senior government official or communication of an EU country states that NordStream 2 will not go forward by the given date.
This market resolves to "NO" otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 750.350194889016, "YES": 170.46485510144075} | {"creatorFee": 4.818749626487644, "platformFee": 1.204687406621911, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1649989329755 | 100 | SnehadriDas | 1644800508087 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c | 19 | 1715657617579 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471742}] | ["politics-default"] | 1649538256934 | 0.04907797279038836 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | AUVdpAGCg4P6t1u591X2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark | 10 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | Will I be able to resolve this market to anything other than YES, NO, or N/A? | 1644804000000 | TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 5} | 0 | 6.366309919943205 | True | play | MKT | public | 1644801243864 | Luna Nova | This market will resolve to the first (Left->Right, Top->Bottom) option other than YES, NO, or N/A that I am offered. If there are no other options, this market resolves to NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644801288660 | 100 | LunaNova | 1644801243864 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c | 1 | 1715657711243 | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7145951393322383 | yH6BlWiEAilCeP9uKO39 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7145951393322383 | if-we-call-delta-about-rescheduling | 150.37956363281629 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 63.620436367183714} | If we call Delta about rescheduling my noncancellablr flight will they do it without a fee | 1644904800000 | 5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 36, "YES": 69} | 0 | 5.020181246272275 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1644801426694 | Em ✨ | Partner says they bend over backward to help when it's on a Delta card, which this flight is. i am skeptical. Resolves NA if we don't successfully reach a human over a phone by end of day Pacific time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 53.22105530702744, "YES": 84.21371536672135} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616} | 0 | 1644870688495 | 100 | hamnox | 1644801426694 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c | 5 | 1715658944804 | 0 | 0.7145951393322383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9949990999685007 | vLxeut439CWrSlfDO1Xf | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9949990999685007 | will-ian-continue-to-dunk-on-kevin | 300 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 95.00000000000003} | Will Ian continue to dunk on Kevin in smegbois | 1645426740000 | e01rVhmJzVfqEKYuNmAxCqXpFWQ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5, "YES": 95} | 0 | 5.018922567828004 | True | play | YES | public | 1644802843945 | Ian Simmons | This market resolves yes at Ian's whimsey next time he considers himself to have dunked on Kevin, or no if this doesn't happen before Dec 31, 2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 99.75063909820328} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476} | 0 | 1644941149417 | 100 | IanSimmons | 1644802843945 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOnqw9TA7SikmIJTt2d6-k7URKfsc826PKH5qa=s96-c | 2 | 1715658853822 | 0 | 0.9949990999685007 |
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