Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.014559797629387194
ZTSEUuNYTBJJXBpHqqcp
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.014559797629387194
will-there-be-an-edge-case-where-it
13570.680698863911
{"NO": 6725.809544232244, "YES": 709.5097569038475}
Will there be an edge case where it is hard to determine if Russia has invaded the Ukraine before March?
1646110740000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 6846.5, "YES": 443.5}
0
4.621733580879384
True
play
NO
public
1644631589922
Duncn
Will we be unsure if Russia has invaded Ukraine as of February 28th? Fifth columns, uncertain allies, planes falling out of the sky, unauthorized incursions, back-and-forth action within Crimea... the possibilities are endless. This will resolve NO if we are sure that Russia has definitely invaded. Feb 22, 6:20pm: Cla...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7480.261797731619, "YES": 909.2416661542911}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}
0
1645739795972
100
Duncn
1644631589922
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
57
1715658336634
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493355}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226860}]
["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1645660913241
False
0.014559797629387194
0.12852482775841503
cDfanKlNaa4V9S5DaaFN
{"NO": 97.65750134015198, "YES": 119.97704365030295}
0
some-rationalists-take-significant
684.5258521483437
{"NO": 222.00000000000006, "YES": 27.474147851656312}
Some rationalists take significant political action this Oops It's Time To Overthrow Governance Again day
1656655140000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 222, "YES": 27}
0
6.181488720619061
True
play
NO
public
1644632447239
Em ✨
Resolves yes by my hearing about attempted US political action which does not seem like it would have been tried in a counterfactual world where EY did not write about fictional dath ilan holidays, by the end of July. Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 326.23986401281405, "YES": 125.2985680107397}
{"creatorFee": 0.13773809818213611, "platformFee": 0.02295634969702269, "liquidityFee": 0.13773809818213611}
{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}
0
1662561605377
100.13773809818213
hamnox
1654228643787
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
10
1650314670483
0
1
11
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495854}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662037596398}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politic...
["politics-default", "please-resolve", "us-politics"]
1654228642376
1648559773140
False
0.10717771316035735
0.19587758497621185
eROjoCfCkP1snuzSSVyn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.19587758497621185
will-russia-begin-an-invasion-of-uk
17827.908670194458
{"NO": 6165.291648986713, "YES": 2236.799680818829}
Will Russia begin an invasion of Ukraine before the Olympics end?
1645286400000
74sewhVANkbXJiKEMP8YsZfJtMp2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 6369, "YES": 2290}
0
4.620983854014776
True
play
NO
public
1644633208450
Kati Behrenwald
Resolves to "Yes" if Russia did attack Ukraine before the end of the 2022 winter Olympics. Read more here: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/11/1080164367/russia-ukraine-invasion-olympics-sullivan Feb 12, 10:40am: #RussiaUkraine
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7624.069559650043, "YES": 3762.860657793777}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1646055901902
100
KatiBehrenwald
1688045985327
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0F-CceYWVYia1urxmW7zHIH-vkqU-bsN0HqRs=s96-c
69
1715658483017
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497168}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226876}]
["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.13068268247672835
1688045979253
False
0.19587758497621185
0.8931782439690217
rM8gSNkbN3qw1uC2CqLk
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8931782439690217
will-manifold-markets-display-count-03f62c37efe5
339.5063946904897
{"NO": 45.493605309510315, "YES": 265}
Will Manifold Markets display countdowns to markets' closing times before 2022-05-01?
1648650240000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 265}
0
4.72992703287818
True
play
YES
public
1644633255369
N.C. Young
As of this market's opening, you can tell when a market closes by mousing over the close date, but this (a) is not easy to see and (b) requires the user to convert between time zones. This is kinda inconvenient, especially for short-term markets. This market resolves YES if, before May, there's an easy way to tell how...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 387.94973901267156}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1645157606558
100
NcyRocks
1644633255369
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
10
1715658769462
0
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-141bb8a6bd6c
1645151246947
0.8931782439690217
0.020701794597093988
2alaGYDys385KimBdktm
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-bitcoin-be-above-50k-by-the-en
28826.330643726622
{"NO": 11840.130273410949, "YES": 704.5347697066557}
Will Bitcoin be above $50k by the end of March 2022?
1648789140000
q5CS0s2j4lZ3dwmBPj0uf5DKoTF3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 11847, "YES": 725}
0
9.857720539783434
True
play
NO
public
1644633334150
Greg B
This market resolves to yes or by midnight of March 31 the price of Bitcoin is at or above $50,000.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 12513.096928818653, "YES": 1819.3293551827066}
{"creatorFee": 2.346892288870659, "platformFee": 0.5867230722176647, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1663706048720
100
GregB
1663706054145
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiAElINO-4vdhnplHIy6DqXMEzmUYFcB8LkfQMs=s96-c
52
1650313781070
0
1
54
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779743545}]
["please-resolve"]
1663706052875
0.02070179459709399
0.26879999999999993
9TTuWZxGFW3r7na0hJ0k
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.26879999999999993
if-we-guess-cocoa-in-round-4-will-w
150
{"NO": 108, "YES": 42}
If we guess “COCOA” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644638340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 108, "YES": 42}
0
4.797109350291603
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644634666017
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 213.77558326431952, "YES": 129.6148139681572}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786}
0
1644647712378
100
Manifold
1644634666017
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
4
1715657670422
0
0.26879999999999993
0.27536920782179664
U44njmNWEZ3iippc0jn8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.27536920782179664
if-we-guess-vocal-in-round-4-will-w
147
{"NO": 105, "YES": 42}
If we guess “VOCAL” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644638340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 105, "YES": 42}
0
4.7991241598181995
True
play
NO
public
1644634666443
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 210.259363644048, "YES": 129.6148139681572}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786}
0
1644647776768
100
Manifold
1644634666443
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658221555
0
0.27536920782179664
0.2543566140289784
aH3wKt3O5wuCI1zyiMkC
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2543566140289784
if-we-guess-local-in-round-4-will-w
157
{"NO": 115, "YES": 42}
If we guess “LOCAL” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?
1644638340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 115, "YES": 42}
0
4.792575883984042
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644634666851
Manifold
Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy Rules of the game: 1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round 2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word 3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets 4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A 5. If the Wordle is n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 221.92115717073938, "YES": 129.6148139681572}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786}
0
1644647697692
100
Manifold
1644634666851
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
4
1715658361644
0
0.2543566140289784
0.44902841697713497
jaHZSUbVTSi30zlsqHN4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
whos-da-boss
134
{"NO": 73, "YES": 61}
whos da boss
1645257540000
HH6nyOCRMgfDs8CGsCxR3Vh3Nhj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73, "YES": 61}
0
2.801705188748449
True
play
YES
public
1644635359022
nick jones
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 173.69225659193904, "YES": 156.80242345065972}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1667855170366
100
nickjones
1644635359022
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8BBzosvNDfV7a2R04Pv90IYBegT_YiefSIIg=s96-c
4
1650314728624
0
1
5
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779587060}]
["please-resolve"]
1645221555530
0.44902841697713497
0.009260604718390363
4jMlMfzJBXPz1YhELnpI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.009260604718390363
will-the-bengals-be-the-winner-of-s
9575.11726398962
{"NO": 3581.4662042973882, "YES": 253.41653171299492}
Will the bengals be the winner of Super Bowl LVI?
1645430340000
v0slypgmMxRINpIT1zKlWKFDhkm1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 3723, "YES": 194}
0
4.6277457269486835
True
play
NO
public
1644636538834
peeps
The market resolves to yes if the bengals are announced the winners of super bowl LVI
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 3916.6206613918635, "YES": 378.661776405969}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 81.8535277187245, "YES": 57.445626465380286}
0
1644967542994
100
peeps
1644636538834
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae0-0e37e3271034
18
1715656982721
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396363}]
["sports-default"]
1644665597917
0.009260604718390363
0.5
nOi8Qf7idvDkaUq2Avf9
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-it-be-heads-or-tails-in-the-su
100
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
Will it be Heads or Tails in the Super Bowl?
1645246740000
mcHtT6lEf7g3xDXjKiXtNGKdYk73
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1644637513749
Matthew Kemph
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644637618913
100
MatthewKemph
1644637513749
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi38fjXtBfwuHtXppg9Iy_KDKY2DFhW1j5st0ymuYw=s96-c
1
1715658659766
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407539}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181983025}]
["sports-default", "nfl"]
False
0.5
0.9881593142326583
j3xemcb7tImzHViMai36
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9881593142326583
will-it-be-heads-in-the-super-bowl
6754.1916810715775
{"NO": 182.54128480830616, "YES": 1529.2670341201165}
Will it be Heads in the Super Bowl?
1645246740000
mcHtT6lEf7g3xDXjKiXtNGKdYk73
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55, "YES": 1676}
0
4.642335919724779
True
play
YES
public
1644637687712
Matthew Kemph
Yes Heads, No Tails.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 197.15176856086032, "YES": 1801.0498506958554}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645292003983
100
MatthewKemph
1644637687712
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi38fjXtBfwuHtXppg9Iy_KDKY2DFhW1j5st0ymuYw=s96-c
16
1715658562108
0
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406486}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181982989}]
["sports-default", "nfl"]
1644818899437
False
0.9881593142326583
0.06618936777093755
C7rgNiIdKk7z93qmXG2J
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.06618936777093755
will-manifold-markets-implement-a-d
4435.891834530961
{"NO": 1099.5896826253895, "YES": 546.518482843649}
Will Manifold Markets implement a dark mode by the ides of March 2022
1647327600000
8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1194, "YES": 182}
0
4.643345335548648
True
play
NO
public
1644638739950
Elena
this market resolves to YES if by the time it closes the manifold.markets website UI has light text on a dark background either as an option which i am able to locate and enable, or as the default
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1687.3320293957738, "YES": 449.22638846442646}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1647328724202
100
Elena
1644638739950
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c
43
1715657750221
0
1647304317107
0.06618936777093755
0.49962841854934587
chJ72eSzzNYiBXQG4RbU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.49962841854934587
this-market-will-resolve-at-whichev
16
{"NO": 8, "YES": 8}
This market will resolve at whichever type of share is bought last at close time
1644901140000
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 8, "YES": 8}
0
4.9722245532560025
True
play
NO
public
1644639986151
Garrett Baker
In three days, if the most recent share bought is YES, then the market will resolve YES, if it’s a NO, then it will resolve NO. This is independent of price, so if you buy M$100 of YES, but then another buys M$1 of NO, and they are the last buyer, then the market resolves NO. Feb 12, 3:52pm: Also note: The market wi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 82.05485969764375, "YES": 81.99390221229868}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644857614989
100
GarrettBaker
1644639986151
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
5
1715658447111
0
0.49962841854934587
0.05536193590425689
zOWqfhcn2r3IsdmFaoJT
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05536193590425689
will-lauren-stay-over-at-my-place-f
309
{"NO": 282.5, "YES": 26.5}
Will Lauren stay over at my place for two nights?
1644915600000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 282.5, "YES": 26.5}
0
4.730322555343878
True
play
NO
public
1644640675562
Em ✨
Starting Saturday. Has said only intends one overnight, max 3. Resolves yes if has not vacated premises by midnight for two nights by Monday midnight. Nonconsecutive two nights counts for yes. Feb 13, 5:19pm: left during the day with stuff. Still possibility of coming back tomorrow? 🤔
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 397.51729522122685, "YES": 96.23408959407264}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1644893487823
100
hamnox
1644640675562
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
8
1715658970718
0
0.05536193590425689
0.03138211535223222
bOSGovD48jozU7vLKUe6
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.03138211535223222
will-manifold-markets-add-the-abili
1123.6068873735144
{"NO": 579.5597151871053, "YES": 80.47775854945732}
Will Manifold Markets add the ability to follow people by the end of March?
1648796340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 585, "YES": 61}
0
4.678792706664513
True
play
NO
public
1644642459981
charlie
This market resolves to YES if, by the end of March, Manifold Markets has an option to "follow", "friend", or otherwise pay attention to the content of individual users.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 748.0166201927266, "YES": 134.64062313917867}
{"creatorFee": 3.1163405914894384, "platformFee": 0.7790851478723596, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1648827135702
100
charlie
1644642459981
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
29
1715658392731
0
1
1644841913814
0.03138211535223222
0.8037672334843196
HfOG4ohDTHf4P9eoZWiW
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8037672334843196
will-root-and-elena-hook-up-in-marc
230.99999999999997
{"NO": 11, "YES": 90.00000000000003}
Will root and Elena hook up in March?
1646121540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 11, "YES": 90}
0
4.8367741249943155
True
play
YES
public
1644643416394
charlie
This market resolves to YES if root and Elena have sex in March 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 89.03931715820826, "YES": 180.20266368730512}
{"creatorFee": 0.44000000000000117, "platformFee": 0.11000000000000029, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1647829501741
100
charlie
1644643416394
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
6
1715657889275
0
1
0.8037672334843196
0.4999269575375357
q5WCLqTFGtsYE9TdAGzV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4999269575375357
who-will-win-the-super-bowl
103.99990310644716
{"NO": 51, "YES": 51.000096893552836}
Who will win the Super Bowl?
1645250340000
c74i8jbZqPTrr0S2t94vbZtVY132
cpmm-1
{"NO": 51, "YES": 51}
0
2.772588781409058
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644643717566
Christopher Sanders
What team will win the Super Bowl?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 142.84607099952032, "YES": 142.82520486596445}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1680902311123
100
ChristopherSanders
1663242341926
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwPCUsPCkDQve9j1wSaG1DJu0xiiLAONByJPGc-=s96-c
4
1650314769410
0
1
6
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779564242}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181983089}]
["please-resolve", "nfl"]
1663242336946
False
0.5
0.39195443218227133
lnHCz5J9Dxi4CGhMrEcz
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.39195443218227133
will-matthew-stafford-be-named-the
112
{"NO": 68, "YES": 44}
Will Matthew Stafford be named the MVP of Super Bowl LVI?
1644825540000
QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 68, "YES": 44}
0
4.826429610508467
True
play
NO
public
1644644780215
edavis
This market resolves to YES if Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of Super Bowl LVI and NO if any other player is named MVP.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 165.31182655817457, "YES": 132.72528018429645}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1644808667082
100
edavis
1644644780215
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c
3
1715658627639
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407059}]
["sports-default"]
0.39195443218227133
0.06442435084028539
PKWyqlJNVbBVOmiBJa8H
{"NO": 89.36035294224347, "YES": 533.4554874361314}
0
will-tower-write-his-infamous-conve
1227.8809455626192
{"NO": 403.685890776549, "YES": 35.60171089617228}
Will Tower write his infamous conversion post by August?
1659337140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 405.5, "YES": 40.5}
0
9.939319011492003
True
play
NO
public
1644657913564
charlie
This market resolves to YES if, by 08/01/22, Tower has publicly posted an essay of at least 100 words purporting to explain the rationale for his conversion to Catholicism. It is acceptable if the post is not intended to be the entire explanation, so long as it claims to be at least half (so, one post of a two-post s...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 521.6211431617423, "YES": 136.9032516945919}
{"creatorFee": 1.0557560535584771, "platformFee": 0.021807429893104704, "liquidityFee": 0.13084457935862823}
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
0
1659650925125
100.13084457935864
charlie
1659111323027
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
21
1650314570135
0
1
1659111321872
1653944721145
0.011403467078287965
0.8692940228876349
2q4PlerIn0BpGr8o5U2s
{"NO": 3785.892071888849, "YES": 92.29466956030272}
1
will-the-glowfic-constellation-surp
5059.869169416414
{"NO": 117.72753271441672, "YES": 553.1136424289728}
Will the Glowfic Constellation surpass 500 registered users by Halloween?
1667199540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 113, "YES": 574}
0
5.300506316439171
True
play
YES
public
1644658539182
charlie
This market resolves to "YES" if the number of registered users on the Glowfic Constellation (https://glowfic.com/users) is at least 500 as of 10/31/22.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 354.2573621927807, "YES": 684.6151025420448}
{"creatorFee": 2.2225862803398018, "platformFee": 0.15551016455966532, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1669147995962
160
charlie
1668974107077
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
37
1650313784110
0
5
36
[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529390896}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540800}]
["glowfic", "culture-default"]
1667152757961
1668974104889
0.9963478539678932
0.28485223290418094
sO1jRUZ7FaCU6IjaAriD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.28485223290418094
will-joe-burrow-be-named-mvp-of-sup
131
{"NO": 94, "YES": 37}
Will Joe Burrow be named MVP of Super Bowl LVI?
1644798600000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 94, "YES": 37}
0
4.810673090894716
True
play
NO
public
1644667470668
David Glidden
This market resolves to YES if Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of Super Bowl LVI and NO if any other player is named MVP.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 195.34840669941488, "YES": 123.28828005937953}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1644809943509
100
dglid
1644667470668
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
1715658781921
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408562}]
["sports-default"]
0.28485223290418094
0.8337950138504155
oMp164zQMPh0ObanGED5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8337950138504155
will-the-super-bowl-lvi-halftime-sh
280
{"NO": 60, "YES": 220}
Will the Super Bowl LVI halftime show receive mostly positive reviews?
1644844500000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 60, "YES": 220}
0
4.738581663407304
True
play
YES
public
1644668716365
David Glidden
Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige and Kendrick Lamar will headline the halftime show for Super Bowl LVI. Will resolve YES if, by my judgment of a quick (~5 minute or less) scan of Google News articles for the search term “ super bowl halftime show” on the morning following (Monday, February 14th) around 8:15a...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 346.98703145794946}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1644844766978
100
dglid
1644668716365
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
1715658677057
0
0.8337950138504155
0.5713988768229689
M09Rmx3iC3Jy2YydiK3y
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5713988768229689
what-percent-of-your-manifold-do-yo
562.360783020855
{"NO": 135.15880515575594, "YES": 268.48041182338903}
What percent of your $manifold do you like to have in short term investments?
1646089200000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 140, "YES": 280}
0
4.709684012112162
True
play
MKT
public
1644674100328
Duncn
What percent of your $predictions do you prefer to have in markets resolving within ~30 days? Market resolves to PROB.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 320.93023234958844, "YES": 388.14462104144314}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1646092278554
100
Duncn
1644674100328
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
7
1715657999871
0
1
1646083647680
0.5713988768229689
0.12456009055383305
o9rypVAPxi6HD2XxbCla
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.12456009055383305
aita-for-refusing-to-do-the-dishes
306.9862830270405
{"NO": 211.01371697295951, "YES": 30}
AITA for refusing to do the dishes?
1644739140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 215, "YES": 30}
0
4.75175322359062
True
play
NO
public
1644680150690
charlie
This market resolves to YES if https://www.reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/sqt88v/aita_for_refusing_to_do_the_dishes/ is officially flaired YTA (you're the asshole). It resolves to NO if it's marked NTA (not the asshole). An official verdict of ESH (everyone sucks here), NAH (no assholes here), or INFO (not enough...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 319.06929967325937, "YES": 120.35421542151981}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644764835483
100
charlie
1644680150690
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
8
1715658672601
0
1644684522668
0.12456009055383305
0.43340720221606654
dQTkJZ6EyQDVqX4gDSeU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.43340720221606654
will-my-high-boyfriend-think-an-ott
90
{"NO": 51, "YES": 39}
Will my high boyfriend think an otter is cuter than a hedgehog?
1644695940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 51, "YES": 39}
0
4.84818841182032
True
play
YES
public
1644682142932
charlie
My boyfriend is getting high today, and he likes cute animals. I'm going to show him these pictures, and ask him which he thinks is cuter: https://imgur.com/a/7f2GehF Market resolves YES if he picks the otter. Market resolves NO if he picks the hedgehog. Market resolves N/A if he can't or won't pick. I will tell him ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 143.01748144894736, "YES": 125.08397179495061}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644702303919
100
charlie
1644682142932
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
6
1715658465809
0
1644684970213
0.43340720221606654
0.04721430085601237
xSC2vHVJKvG2GvHWObGW
{"NO": 119.00742658907853, "YES": 141.53493146989237}
0
will-i-be-recovered-from-my-chronic
502.52107234760444
{"NO": 249.24824765469594, "YES": 22.610258989227646}
Will I be recovered from my chronic illness by the end of 2022?
1672559940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 249.5, "YES": 22.5}
0
9.032311191148448
True
play
NO
public
1644682974651
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if, in the judgment of my doctor, I no longer have idiopathic chronic fatigue or any serious medical condition I have been diagnosed with by my doctor in the meantime, excluding psychiatric diagnoses.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 362.69865582446437, "YES": 82.02703229165184}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
0
1673477910323
120
ozymandias272
1670087143034
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
20
1650314821256
0
3
21
1670087142950
1644723610912
0.04
0.9719151862810673
11Yc7IsvlJiIASxxxhg9
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9719151862810673
will-the-order-of-the-stick-update
805
{"NO": 54.00000000000003, "YES": 737}
Will the Order of the Stick update before the 20th?
1645343940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 54, "YES": 737}
0
4.669689427635271
True
play
YES
public
1644683205164
charlie
The webcomic "The Order of the Stick" (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots.html) is currently on #1252. This market resolves to YES if #1253 is posted before 2/20/22.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 149.31845163944075, "YES": 878.3991120214091}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1645210662508
100
charlie
1644683205164
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
7
1715656884163
0
0.9719151862810673
0.7360620539440306
UExVUhvBq16bIIZVFRBP
{"NO": 730.9474904544797, "YES": 53.54867888062527}
1
will-i-get-to-see-my-chemical-roman
788.1300548069992
{"NO": 30, "YES": 71}
Will I get to see My Chemical Romance in 2022?
1667372340000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 30, "YES": 71}
0
4.165394134494112
True
play
YES
public
1644683531060
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if this year I attend the My Chemical Romance concert that has been canceled twice due to covid.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.6844555954991, "YES": 162.2189877911954}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1667400940643
120
ozymandias272
1667368742158
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
14
1650314609101
0
1
14
1667368741962
0.9744030270645713
0.960411043718792
JZts4X5yw99PFg5zienl
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.960411043718792
will-we-dont-talk-about-bruno-from
1071
{"NO": 34, "YES": 1037}
Will We Don't Talk About Bruno from Encanto still be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on the week starting February 13th?
1644728340000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 34, "YES": 1037}
0
4.656915149591205
True
play
YES
public
1644683627434
Kira
https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ Feb 13, 10:17am: It turns out that I know nothing about music and the Billboard Hot 100 updates on Tuesday and is just backdated for Sunday, so this market will resolve Tuesday.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 232.99356214281974, "YES": 1147.5865980395554}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1644946269824
100
Kira
1644683627434
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
8
1715657942883
0
1644712105479
0.960411043718792
0.6852252880460299
tJXAXUPDx1RTEngunaf0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6852252880460299
will-manifold-markets-implement-mut
373.94615269759004
{"NO": 61.2, "YES": 168.85384730241}
Will manifold markets implement muting/hiding markets from view by May 1
1647283315097
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 61.2, "YES": 185.8}
0
4.755978628545393
True
play
YES
public
1644683730237
Em ✨
In any form, individually or by community or by tag or by creator. Close date updated to 2022-04-30 12:00 am Mar 14, 11:33am: MM now automatically hides some of the more annoying tags from the home feed, unless you opt into a community with that tag. Less directly controllable a feature than I hoped for, but I did sa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 185.17600787385064, "YES": 273.21308209349377}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 88.31760866327846, "YES": 46.9041575982343}
0
1647283315097
100
hamnox
1644683730237
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
13
1715658814850
0
1646829830379
0.6852252880460299
0.5583358230757441
IXXM6qlOpUkIy29yIwFE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5583358230757441
will-manifold-markets-do-something
1023.1128308715805
{"NO": 441.89117974590147, "YES": 506.995989382518}
Will Manifold Markets do something for April Fool's day?
1648796340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 442, "YES": 508}
0
4.66166707709173
True
play
YES
public
1644683955425
charlie
This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets does something on their website in an official capacity on 4/1/22 which is (in my judgement) clearly intended as an observance of April Fool's day. Merely posting a market which refers to April Fool's (e.g. "will a major news station accidentally report on an April Fool'...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 697.067541345613, "YES": 783.7481332447385}
{"creatorFee": 17.675647189836063, "platformFee": 4.418911797459016, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1648849849875
100
charlie
1644683955425
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
33
1715657908354
0
1
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663302422402}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1648785444435
0.5583358230757441
0.9272470485948366
OomeCDlMWbSyTc6yjiJW
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9272470485948366
will-i-lose-or-gain-weight-over-7-d
858.7749014623657
{"NO": 71, "YES": 670.2250985376343}
Will I lose or gain weight over 7 days
1645275540000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 71, "YES": 678}
0
4.672824941789708
True
play
YES
public
1644684576584
Undox
Weigh in 13 Feb 8am AEST. Again 7 days layer. Male about 84kg / 175cm tall - will update with 13 Feb weight. Already lost 6kg over 4 weeks. Feb 13, 3:49am: YES means success (lost weight) Feb 13, 3:02pm: Starting weight confirmed 84kg this morning Feb 13, 8:31pm: good day, stuck to the diet plan. had one small treat...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 226.90158510176954, "YES": 810.0465030403853}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645299250514
100
Undox
1644684576584
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
8
1715658094053
0
1
1645189651739
0.9272470485948366
0.2
OiRNRiKzYqGs0lMUnyaB
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2
will-manifold-markets-be-able-to-re
10
{"NO": 8, "YES": 2}
Will Manifold Markets be able to remember my preferred market sorting by St. Patrick's Day?
1647500340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 8, "YES": 2}
0
4.988398938453523
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644684590651
charlie
This market resolves to YES if, on 3/17/22, https://manifold.markets/markets can retain the sort option selected from the dropdown on a hard refresh. It still counts if this is an optional feature that has to be enabled at the level of user preferences. Also still counts if the URL for the markets page changes. Marke...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 98.38699100999075, "YES": 49.193495504995376}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1644685128780
100
charlie
1644684590651
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
1
1715658085140
0
0.2
0.13171947312210752
Ifc1papXk04RXFyX3z1N
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.13171947312210752
aita-for-telling-my-girlfriend-she
165
{"NO": 150, "YES": 15}
AITA for telling my girlfriend she needs to get medicated?
1645351140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 150, "YES": 15}
0
4.787664358140534
True
play
NO
public
1644685086651
charlie
This market resolves to YES if https://www.reddit.com/r/AmItheAsshole/comments/sqvimm/aita_for_telling_my_girlfriend_she_needs_to_get//aita_for_refusing_to_do_the_dishes/ is officially flaired YTA (you're the asshole). It resolves to NO if it's marked NTA (not the asshole). An official verdict of ESH (everyone sucks h...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 246.9311644973149, "YES": 96.17692030835673}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644764815641
100
charlie
1644685086651
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
6
1715657916393
0
1644686132074
0.13171947312210752
0.5255975412136352
jRfvyaH4m4wHVf2RtAX8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5255975412136352
will-manifold-markets-be-able-to-re-ecff84a1b177
457.1331947059706
{"NO": 139, "YES": 155.86680529402943}
Will Manifold Markets be able to remember my preferred market sorting by St. Patrick's Day?
1645343940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 139, "YES": 157}
0
4.734204786036711
True
play
YES
public
1644685159911
charlie
This market resolves to YES if, on 3/17/22, https://manifold.markets/markets can retain the sort option selected from the dropdown when leaving and returning to the page. It still counts if this is an optional feature that has to be enabled at the level of user preferences. Also still counts if the URL for the markets...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 271.97193533632856, "YES": 286.2709561106835}
{"creatorFee": 5.514672211761178, "platformFee": 1.3786680529402946, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1647829563274
100
charlie
1644685159911
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
8
1715658575583
0
1
0.5255975412136352
0.6034985422740523
25s5YEbRqcDOEJa8QKe1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6034985422740523
will-my-dog-wake-us-up-at-night-on
145
{"NO": 55, "YES": 90}
Will my dog wake us up at night on night of 13th Feb
1644843540000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55, "YES": 90}
0
4.800492406452837
True
play
NO
public
1644685333786
Undox
Anxious Toy Cavoodle dog. 3yr old. New home. Male. Desexed. Being barking or squeaking at night. Kept in his own room along with a calm dog. AEST time zone. Feb 13, 3:17pm: New info. He will stay in another room where slightly less likely to be distributed. Feb 13, 8:30pm: dog is quiet now! fingers crossed ha ha. wil...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.27248620541513, "YES": 190.3286631067428}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1644784620028
100
Undox
1644685333786
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
6
1715656914545
0
0.6034985422740523
0.29820847691512836
iiZ2CM7oBnZX5PPT03sR
{"NO": 213.0499018889347, "YES": 951.9193986162749}
0
will-used-car-prices-drop-back-to-p
2815.0276914515084
{"NO": 460, "YES": 180}
Will used car prices drop back to pre-chips-shortage levels by Jun 2023?
1685595600000
pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 460, "YES": 180}
0
1.4328315185934817
True
play
NO
public
1644685538877
Cedar
This market resolves to whether the Manheim used car price index (https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html) is under 150.6 for Jun 2023. 150.6 is it's 2020 annual average. Feb 12, 12:09pm: Oh forgot to mention, I'm asking here because I'm thinking of getting a car and the used ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 659.0144156238161, "YES": 336.6006535941367}
{"creatorFee": 0.18787597504989914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1689310920266
340
Cedar
1687968336362
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c
29
1650314723950
0
9
24
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501236}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573919}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "userId": "3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2", ...
["politics-default", "economics-default", "automotive"]
0.11648689096986642
1685360902548
1687968334009
0.09
0.3747179489502346
g0p7UHisDSTvGphOiqnP
{"NO": 203.27682622181553, "YES": 194.38485512961716}
1
will-a-newtome-song-top-my-spotify
411.6203002928256
{"NO": 25, "YES": 18}
Will a new-to-me song top my Spotify Wrapped?
1669827780000
ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 25, "YES": 18}
0
1.7061347802582418
True
play
YES
public
1644685683393
Blazer
This market resolves to YES if the #1 song on my 2022 Spotify Wrapped playlist is one I do not recall having heard before 2022/01/01. New covers of songs I've heard before count as new songs. My profile is https://open.spotify.com/user/s6ug42p8d49wwx8l0mekkdgbk?si=TKR58S2lQ1uUKAvBDM0cuQ&utm_source=copy-link
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 112.44554237496477, "YES": 88.34591105421914}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616}
0
1669840147579
200
BlazingDarkness
1669821902470
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c
13
1650314704422
0
12
1669821902335
0.38525538247841706
0.13527756201563765
NSRHoSEAIxZ6BOu6IbZs
{"NO": 119.25467485517783, "YES": 124.85339394037987}
0
will-i-finish-only-hymns-upon-our-l
557.5932555080782
{"NO": 28, "YES": 6}
Will I finish 'only hymns upon our lips' this year?
1672559940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 28, "YES": 6}
0
5.181996480162621
True
play
NO
public
1644686264278
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if I mark 'complete' on AO3 on 'only hymns upon our lips' this year. https://archiveofourown.org/works/30646673/chapters/75611105
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 124.53112060846478, "YES": 49.47726750741192}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1673477937463
120
ozymandias272
1670087149348
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
6
1650314557328
0
3
6
1670087149247
1645654964817
0.13
0.12204950272128214
p4X9KBwhhPO6ld5Ssr8x
{"NO": 989.1554521001427, "YES": 1063.1998387312835}
0.11452304694691717
will-my-primary-grace-and-i-get-mar
1431.1243810731808
{"NO": 339.7968982339473, "YES": 69}
Will my primary grace and I get married by 2024?
1735718340000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 340, "YES": 69}
0
10.004691546645946
False
basic
public
1644686456669
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if Grace and I have had a wedding by January 1, 2024, or if our wedding was delayed due to circumstances beyond our control. Feb 12, 9:26am: "Circumstances beyond our control" include cancellation due to a pandemic, a really cool venue only being available in February 2025, or similar, but ...
BINARY
{"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17}
0
{"NO": 459.49486590577925, "YES": 218.4919949533982}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1000
ozymandias272
1693786968724
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
23
1650314762568
0
22
1693786967779
0.7760263385018378
kGdbg7HXTK9f72wRHUEa
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7760263385018378
will-i-start-an-original-fiction-no
254.57938295461912
{"NO": 62, "YES": 175.42061704538088}
Will I start an original fiction novel by the end of July?
1647534835493
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 62, "YES": 176}
0
4.753110233201791
True
play
YES
public
1644686593650
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if, in my judgment, I have started a first draft of such a novel. (Outlining, researching, etc do not count.)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 159.68719422671313, "YES": 297.2417750035913}
{"creatorFee": 2.4568246818152355, "platformFee": 0.6142061704538089, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}
0
1647534835493
100
ozymandias272
1644686593650
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
7
1715658591422
0
1646425452293
0.7760263385018378
0.9352889105949147
AxE98HquFwILAWKujr5C
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9352889105949147
will-westwind-and-nextworldover-hoo
262
{"NO": 12, "YES": 250}
Will westwind and nextworldover hook up in 2022?
1645343940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 12, "YES": 250}
0
4.744332248321266
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644687609191
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if westwind and nextworldover have gone on a date or performed some sort of sexual activity in 2022, including in a group context. Feb 12, 10:29am: I have committed to only hook up with nextworldover if I want to and not to gain imaginary internet points.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 92.0869154657707, "YES": 350.09141663285607}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1644695172299
100
ozymandias272
1644687609191
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
4
1715657723371
0
0.9352889105949147
0.8097991195982391
gpwB2N691aW90igmVQGb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8097991195982391
will-my-oculus-arrive-monday
154
{"NO": 29, "YES": 125}
Will my Oculus arrive Monday?
1644868800000
NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 29, "YES": 125}
0
4.794490768000633
True
play
YES
public
1644689903196
Keller
This question resolves to YES if, by midnight February 14th, I have played a song in Beat Saber. If the Oculus arrives but it is broken, resolves to NO. If it arrives but there's some software bug, resolves to NO. I publicly commit my intent that, upon receipt of the Quest 2 that is theoretically arriving, I will immed...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 110.77454581265502, "YES": 228.57165178560527}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137}
0
1644891631081
100
Celer
1644689903196
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c
7
1715658533052
0
0.8097991195982391
0.02550552916932701
AH4iqjdqr3CcScuhnH9P
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.02550552916932701
will-queen-elizabeth-be-publicly-co
889.0581621927286
{"NO": 637.9418378072714, "YES": 35}
Will Queen Elizabeth be publicly confirmed to have covid within the next week?
1645333140000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 645, "YES": 35}
0
4.677762962263033
True
play
NO
public
1644690815907
Kira
Resolves to yes if any reputable news source reports a positive test between February 12th and February 19th, and there is no significant pushback from other reputable news sources. Context: Prince Charles, who met with the Queen two days ago, tested positive. The Queen is fully vaccinated. Feb 20, 11:49am: All the Y...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 763.0210250267563, "YES": 123.44229421069586}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1645376074758
100
Kira
1644690815907
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
19
1715657695251
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474717}]
["politics-default"]
0.02550552916932701
0.2206862891189116
hCmpV2C75fjW0Opd3pi2
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2206862891189116
private-question-1
211.37433871497194
{"NO": 129, "YES": 39.62566128502806}
Private Question #1
1644911940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 129, "YES": 41}
0
4.785527051734238
True
play
YES
public
1644691855772
Ozy Brennan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 237.13936694316143, "YES": 126.19297344390952}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.06623862918075, "YES": 55.677643628300224}
0
1644719899379
100
ozymandias272
1644691855772
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
3
1715658540516
0
0.2206862891189116
0.25048615916955014
Ox3jb3SKY9g6QUDt2reK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.25048615916955014
private-question-2
69.99999999999999
{"NO": 48.449999999999996, "YES": 21.55}
Private question #2
1645343940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 48.449999999999996, "YES": 21.55}
0
4.872282915004588
True
play
NO
public
1644691890481
Ozy Brennan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 147.17659460661537, "YES": 85.08260691821802}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
0
1644823636611
100
ozymandias272
1644691890481
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
3
1715658096925
0
0.25048615916955014
0.2648936320307056
S9rVASFNaTHu05JEDztU
{"NO": 117.62099505263934, "YES": 127.15324178987699}
0.24999999999999978
private-question-3
966.0519466426551
{"NO": 72.5, "YES": 23.84676824816532}
Private question #3
1672559940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 72.5, "YES": 24.5}
0
3.1120886487607624
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644692698389
Ozy Brennan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 168.00297616411441, "YES": 101.6221107904119}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616}
0
1705149229035
120.04398711069466
ozymandias272
1705149229369
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
15
1650314596837
0
76
15
1670087155107
1705149226466
0.25
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.05294194624187312
am3YgQVaQqmt2GO3qTFd
{"NO": 42.55520451820239, "YES": 37.269415894761906}
0
will-westwind-and-nextworldover-hoo-06ce76815de9
965.0131949472051
{"NO": 40.5, "YES": 471.7344198585946}
Will westwind and nextworldover hook up in 2022?
1672559940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40.5, "YES": 472.5}
0
9.421495441862746
True
play
NO
public
1644695238649
Ozy Brennan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.5492440606462, "YES": 592.406546233136}
{"creatorFee": 0.3605536533332269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 22.36067977499791, "YES": 97.46794344808963}
0
1673057638397
140
ozymandias272
1672004482244
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
19
1650314660175
0
2
17
1672004482127
1645267760611
0.06
0.5
sOuNc0smLgftNlKu8Qya
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-normalanomaly-visit-the-united
10
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
Will NormalAnomaly visit the United Kingdom during 2022?
1672560000000
K7XR7iGzoPZ2vRtwIGk5i4B7sBF3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
0
4.988398938453521
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644695981282
Normal Anomaly
This market resolves to YES if I have been in the UK (not an embassy or the inside of security in an airport) sometime in 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 77.78174593052023, "YES": 77.78174593052023}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644697451869
100
NormalAnomaly
1644695981282
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxbdngpgkIM8GvlAYKbwl-U7JX-f0mgMlR7ZO7H=s96-c
1
1715658783351
0
0.5
0.4892946025239608
M5WLwRnRDjPI6NG1KsWh
{"NO": 107.60259239491734, "YES": 10206.055048027985}
0
will-i-have-completed-my-phd-by-jun
12872.473164335144
{"NO": 52.5, "YES": 86.53958127838519}
Will I have completed my PhD by June 14th, 2024?
1718521140000
NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 52.5, "YES": 87.5}
0
9.911024221126588
True
basic
NO
public
1644696062674
Keller
This market resolves to Yes if I have successfully defended my dissertation by June 14th, 2024. I see no reason why I shouldn't be done by then, but long-term projects are complex. In the event that I drop out of the program, resolves to NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4894225788683244}
0
{"NO": 161.07943149618887, "YES": 176.6163587174481}
{"creatorFee": 90.50776325059076, "platformFee": 0.026903014501554946, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1718577490440
1000
Celer
1718521140000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c
33
1650314547603
0
18
1718505750976
1718574986433
0.01
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.6546647733243998
GQyPlGFfoO8mNvKIFChW
{"NO": 389.6538622316517, "YES": 51.947358159629886}
1
will-normalanomaly-visit-the-uk-in
455.3366871999177
{"NO": 52, "YES": 72.66331280008225}
Will NormalAnomaly visit the UK in 2022?
1654954793385
il80G6hK9ZMmbY3CkWqq3aZQapP2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 52, "YES": 73}
0
3.4569458450458526
True
play
YES
public
1644697585664
NormalAnomaly
This market resolves to YES if I have been in the UK (not an embassy or the inside of security in an airport) sometime in 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 132.94045900328504, "YES": 181.10891330440776}
{"creatorFee": 2.0768266100894173, "platformFee": 0.3461377683482362, "liquidityFee": 2.0768266100894173}
{"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137}
0
1654954793385
102.07682661008943
Normal_Anomaly
1654891610777
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GihdsikmF9hcykB1Lf7Dt14U5Qzo877OwDuf3MsaA=s96-c
10
1650313875373
0
1654891609425
1644820267144
0.9342961315444491
0.96231784234707
b0HIPB1PqKeZ3utUvt1W
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.96231784234707
will-the-university-of-maryland-ea
511.50395828877004
{"NO": 26.496041711229935, "YES": 464}
Will the University of Maryland EA club have an in-person meeting with 4 or more people before the end of February?
1646197140000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 27, "YES": 464}
0
4.696334478793838
True
play
YES
public
1644697648683
Kira
Feb 12, 5:42pm: The club is new and has never had a meeting before; there seems to be some minimal interest and an attempt to organize a meeting. Feb 15, 12:33pm: There's a meeting planned for Thursday.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 114.62645776118444, "YES": 579.2636277704254}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1645152835380
100
Kira
1644697648683
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
4
1715658383330
0
0.96231784234707
0.542991778850116
qvAFvJ5va6D5Cs3Gd18z
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.542991778850116
will-a-communist-revolution-happen
5345.002753567565
{"NO": 1588.5711391309512, "YES": 1538.4261073014827}
Will a communist revolution happen?
1645333140000
WPlxcrWFNsdpBkEZy6EXU5uP1kM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1728, "YES": 1498}
0
4.630493622773706
True
play
MKT
public
1644699332884
Crescent Cat
just testing this
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2181.5270437134477, "YES": 2377.908952426348}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1645342114974
100
CrescentCat
1644699332884
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjEP-jCgVMLKTDiM7LcL0qG85kzVevDFYYkm_k_=s96-c
25
1715658753477
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506962}]
["politics-default"]
1645313776365
0.542991778850116
0.684631935163878
a7gKtLO8Va2BZPzzHdHI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.684631935163878
this-market-will-resolve-to-whateve
10733.421863335252
{"NO": 248.02491919887257, "YES": 1136.553217465875}
This market will resolve to whatever share the person who bets the greatest amount ends up buying.
1644987540000
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 194, "YES": 1162}
0
4.648234411796463
True
play
YES
public
1644699993495
Garrett Baker
If this person ends up betting anonymously, it is impossible to tell if two bets were actually the same, so if the text says "x users spent M$y on YES/NO", then I will use the number y/x, since by the this is a lower-bound for the maximum amount which could have been spent by any particular user. Feb 15, 11:01am: beca...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 464.03653306910064, "YES": 1410.1923059782248}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644987604563
100
GarrettBaker
1644699993495
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
20
1715658357186
0
1644989135528
0.684631935163878
0.6564160817883078
xbJFXHqtTheOJG39RJOY
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6564160817883078
will-the-mvp-of-the-super-bowl-be-s
214
{"NO": 84, "YES": 130}
Will the MVP of the super bowl be someone other than Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford?
1645336740000
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84, "YES": 130}
0
4.762662992149478
True
play
YES
public
1644707753840
BCG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 184.05433980213562, "YES": 254.40125785852553}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1644808610003
100
BruceGrugett
1644707753840
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
4
1715658923359
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409376}]
["sports-default"]
0.6564160817883078
0.5675952296190815
mfxMyNp6EIsEGasfIXZf
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-more-than-half-of-the-members
112
{"NO": 47, "YES": 65}
Will more than half of the members of the group chat currently known as "Pengu" who watch the Amazon LOTR show like it?
1659329940000
UZtg5gvfl0RmeMk3NRbXlT3GqoI3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 47, "YES": 65}
0
2.8242051963015626
True
play
NO
public
1644710232232
Ryan Beck
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 139.40588222883568, "YES": 159.71850237214224}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1675537163819
100
RyanBeck
1644710232232
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhHTzJu_h_YawIXwFGGOlW8S5LkWdmRhqMTv9TIy7Y=s96-c
3
1650314748442
0
1
4
0.57
0.8835386484504583
4eK0zTmbMMt6eZpl1Jix
{"NO": 1103.643661673286, "YES": 177.33592891256603}
1
will-vienna-teng-perform-in-the-san
1536.2981578622766
{"NO": 37.5, "YES": 95.5}
Will Vienna Teng perform in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2022 or January 2023?
1672298952238
WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72
cpmm-1
{"NO": 37.5, "YES": 95.5}
0
3.9379294219318397
True
play
YES
public
1644717910422
Anna
Vienna Teng usually plays two shows at the Freight & Salvage in downtown Berkeley at the end of December each year. She did not do this in 2020 and 2021. The question resolves YES if she plays at least one concert in the Bay Area (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Sant...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 71.76402302163669, "YES": 111.9785291953328}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1672298952238
240
tcheasdfjkl
1672105059460
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiJvn0IfrkKWoS8HteLnH-JmyArDGxX6xm1m_iB-g=s96-c
21
1650313795432
0
20
[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1669234950803}]
["sf-bay-rationalists"]
1672105059308
1670096163287
0.98
0.17795655827747237
xr5F5VGNCqoGmYxZrCZW
{"NO": 100.16659497867788, "YES": 717.4878757246343}
0
will-i-be-pregnant-before-i-turn-34
7291.85436916898
{"NO": 3172.387469042351, "YES": 574.2966558109656}
Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?
1654239600000
8t0K3uADMIVUBsW0F4n07hN2SDJ3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 3179, "YES": 561}
0
4.049087381527902
True
play
NO
public
1644717924194
Elena
This market resolves to YES if I get a positive pregnancy test before June 3rd 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 3573.773532943369, "YES": 1125.0742908939756}
{"creatorFee": 26.985436543876297, "platformFee": 4.497572757312717, "liquidityFee": 26.985436543876297}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1654493171143
126.97583692458902
Elena
1654206789705
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggd2DqYuqBCrkQ9KnigKPwSt5zhwkyDm1bqPe0HFA=s96-c
64
1650314824805
0
1
1654206789470
1651176845136
0.029335711434839023
0.45121210843170717
e682wfmEZL4xdHYvP1IK
{"NO": 141.6157309523982, "YES": 65.49531724676305}
0
will-landsailor-top-my-spotify-wrap
176.48343162286287
{"NO": 46.01765049082543, "YES": 21.72963862995234}
Will 'Landsailor' top my Spotify Wrapped?
1669839389990
ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 46.75, "YES": 22.25}
0
2.8731035823348483
True
play
NO
public
1644722054863
Blazer
This market resolves to YES if the # 1 song on my 2022 Spotify Wrapped playlist is Vienna Teng's 'Landsailor'. Initial probability set by the percent we are through the year at the moment this market goes live (adjusting for the fact that Wrapped stops tracking listening at the end of November), given that it's my top...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 50.18808126308476, "YES": 45.50810013527808}
{"creatorFee": 0.024798043558158442, "platformFee": 0.0061995108895396105, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009327379053088815, "YES": 0.000360555127546399}
0
1669839389990
100
BlazingDarkness
1669844336219
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c
13
1650314686822
0
13
1669579721145
1669844334375
0.64
0.14609338044713344
H1n62hl3Uf0Gy4JmYTdQ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.14609338044713344
resolves-to-yes-or-no-once-the-prob
669
{"NO": 135, "YES": 50.00000000000003}
Resolves to YES or NO once the probability is 5% or below.
1645361940000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 135, "YES": 50}
0
4.853775403704678
True
play
NO
public
1644724867428
Undox
So if YES has an implied probability of 5% then the answer is YES. Same with NO. In limbo until then. Feb 13, 6:26pm: Resolved! If this is popular I could set this up as a bot, so it resolves immediately
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 170.95399966218983, "YES": 70.71138522543595}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644737112645
100
Undox
1644724867428
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
2
1715657871907
0
1644727833557
0.14609338044713344
0.010000000000000002
G27nbPJH2oXw9htHJM4l
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.010000000000000002
is-friends-car-going-to-be-broken-i
25
{"NO": 24.75, "YES": 0.25}
Is friends car going to be broken into or stolen overnight
1644778800000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 24.75, "YES": 0.25}
0
5.700548750959896
True
play
NO
public
1644734424320
Em ✨
Inside the complex gates, but has stuff in it.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 24.875680915102606, "YES": 2.5001}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}
0
1644770354638
100
hamnox
1644734424320
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
1
1715657857051
0
0.010000000000000002
0.9527443083358242
w8xxwwe0ZFNXxqkH6rfe
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9527443083358242
my-car-is-still-on-the-side-of-the
78
{"NO": 5.5, "YES": 72.5}
My car is still on the side of the road and not broken into come morning
1644775200000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5.5, "YES": 72.5}
0
5.1079458396866935
True
play
YES
public
1644734581680
Em ✨
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 16.956149327603836, "YES": 76.13570122472112}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00014142135623730956, "YES": 0.0009899494936611666}
0
1644770384760
100
hamnox
1644734581680
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
5
1715658868234
0
0.9527443083358242
0.8043942579004452
tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6
{"NO": 6689.949352066367, "YES": 11742.825184568048}
0.7008507366696544
will-at-least-10-world-cities-have
65594.86399869669
{"NO": 1667.8661046502862, "YES": 894.3184785054199}
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
1735686000000
9LvwW4Wkw6YQShBHnYMvTVj2srx1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1695.75, "YES": 901.25}
0.05300407126128323
3.880562585101716
False
plus
public
1644739447251
intellectronica
Resolved to YES if on 2025-01-01: - 10 cities with more than 300,000 inhabitants - Have a taxi service of fully self-driving cars (no test, backup or remote human driver - passengers are the only humans in the car and they control where the car is going by specifying a destination). - The service is generally available...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.05022964480989789, "month": 0.475591499372082}
0
{"NO": 2247.2910435282297, "YES": 1230.6412670671925}
{"creatorFee": 676.2668059155723, "platformFee": 17.977547934359084, "liquidityFee": 4.735954708624374}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
11000
intellectronica
1720204040938
1.3
https://firebasestorage.…abc-099685488b17
14
381
1650314791247
1
148
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455380}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529589030}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2...
["ai", "technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"]
0.1597501036666356
1719873035373
1720204038814
0.46683700801525574
WcKAit4SNQOGfB3JXkTe
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.46683700801525574
rugpull-pure-and-simple
112
{"NO": 58, "YES": 54}
Rugpull. Pure and simple.
1645361940000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 58, "YES": 54}
0
4.982842561944413
True
play
YES
public
1644744179290
Undox
I will resolve with the outcome most profitable to me.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 81.78090241920788, "YES": 76.52521153515357}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644817906713
100
Undox
1644744179290
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
4
1715658270686
0
0.46683700801525574
0.3299999999999999
wRW8McYUUcpOklCUbQus
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3299999999999999
will-i-get-a-web3-gig-this-quarter
190
{"NO": 67, "YES": 33}
Will I get a web3 gig this quarter
1646624877676
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 67, "YES": 33}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
MKT
public
1644745361376
Undox
Experience web developer. Completed Ethereum Udemy course. Building portfolio of example web3 apps now using React. Feel free to reach out and offer a gig if you want to fix it ha ha! Any agreed paid contract counts even if half hour job. Job doesn’t have to be complete. Deadline 31 March To count as web3 must invo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 81.8543462540017, "YES": 57.446200921644945}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000818535277187245, "YES": 0.0005744562646538029}
0
1646624877676
100
Undox
1644745361376
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
4
1715658877169
0
0.3299999999999999
0.23
cLMp2bBwziRqAUczlsgg
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.23
how-many-points-will-the-los-angele
114
{"NO": 73, "YES": 27}
How many points will the Los Angeles Rams score in Super Bowl LVI?
1644805800000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73, "YES": 27}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
MKT
public
1644753748618
David Glidden
Resolves to PROB of final points scored by the Rams. i.e. if they score 27 points, this market resolves to 27%. Market closes 9:30pm ET, which should be sometime in the 2nd half. Feb 13, 7:05am: Sibling market for Bengals here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-points-will-the-cincinnati
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 85.44089185354984, "YES": 51.962043842308596}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008544003745317531, "YES": 0.0005196152422706632}
0
1644809905770
100
dglid
1644753748618
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
2
1715658426546
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405610}]
["sports-default"]
0.23
0.2
ySajHbcRIGDpmLXllnNZ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2
how-many-points-will-the-cincinnati
105
{"NO": 81, "YES": 24}
How many points will the Cincinnati Bengals score in Super Bowl LVI?
1644805800000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 81, "YES": 24}
0
5.003052247763852
True
play
MKT
public
1644753907254
David Glidden
Resolves to PROB of final points scored by the Bengals. i.e. if they score 24 points, this market resolves to 24%. Market closes 9:30pm ET, which should be sometime in the 2nd half. Feb 13, 7:06am: Sibling market for Rams here: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-points-will-the-los-angele
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 92.87175028371115, "YES": 48.990284753612116}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008717797887081347, "YES": 0.0004898979485566356}
0
1644809931401
100
dglid
1644753907254
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
2
1715658951088
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409712}]
["sports-default"]
0.2
0.016013253229459835
Glqq7oUD6cAAZEP2BOwx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.016013253229459835
will-masks-still-be-required-to-be
510.23829459793524
{"NO": 431.85565105987564, "YES": 31.906054342189094}
Will masks still be required to be worn indoors in Washington, DC on March 1st?
1646110740000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 432, "YES": 32}
0
4.717404184288423
True
play
NO
public
1644758214118
David Glidden
On January 26th, DC mayor Muriel Bowser extended the District’s indoor mask mandate through the end of February: https://mayor.dc.gov/release/mayor-bowser-extends-limited-public-health-emergency-until-february-15-extends-indoor-mask This market resolves YES if the mask mandate is extended beyond February or otherwise ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 460.03454535669636, "YES": 58.68614828304887}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
0
1646180819060
100
dglid
1644758214118
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
10
1715657870468
0
1
1646091628527
0.016013253229459835
0.08717318932908656
qv8HNYTfLgj684uaH9py
{"NO": 95.36063091056897, "YES": 164.45027003883075}
0
will-i-move-to-new-york-city-this-s
762.5268842359992
{"NO": 246, "YES": 102.3675107206738}
Will I move to New York City this summer?
1664596740000
ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 246, "YES": 85}
0
8.56725682570407
True
play
NO
public
1644758524005
Blazer
This market resolves to YES if I contribute rent towards and live in an apartment for at least ten days in (or within commuting distance to) New York City on or before September 30th, 2022. My housemate intends to move from semi-rural NYS to NYC; I intend to follow her. Our lease is up at the end of July.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 332.83813937369223, "YES": 102.85617259065627}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}
0
1664766495009
100
BlazingDarkness
1664594719265
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c
15
1650314774495
0
1
16
1664594717933
1648158371664
0.05247125673345177
0.21868278309780462
dUZwiQm5gvhyz7Laijpw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.21868278309780462
will-kanye-west-release-an-album-on
3465.973345638213
{"NO": 993.4867998220299, "YES": 292.53985453975827}
Will Kanye West release an album on February 22nd 2022? Kanye is notorious for delaying album releases at the last minute.
1645505940000
PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1008, "YES": 300}
0
4.653248616532391
True
play
NO
public
1644762179115
Oliver S
Feb 18, 10:17am: Kanye has announced that the album will only be available on his $200 STEM player. If the album gets released this way the market will still resolve to YES. Feb 18, 2:17pm: Kanye has released a tracklist on his IG. I think this market is too bearish.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1136.747492368319, "YES": 601.3919407321822}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645596137501
100
OliverS
1644762179115
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c
20
1715658468772
0
1
1645468454051
0.21868278309780462
0.07691441792165009
puaisGoVtjqzVuPoXAqP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.07691441792165009
will-manifold-markets-enable-login
1541.3270402865414
{"NO": 982.2596682082266, "YES": 308.41329150523217}
Will Manifold Markets enable login with username (or email) and password by April?
1648753460489
9LvwW4Wkw6YQShBHnYMvTVj2srx1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 987, "YES": 296}
0
4.653113985778196
True
play
NO
public
1644762632931
intellectronica
Manifold requires users to log in with their Google ID, which is undesirable to some users. Will a feature be added where users can use a username or email and password combination to log in directly and without required a connected Google account?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1240.045246133229, "YES": 357.94840106473254}
{"creatorFee": 12.34202413158857, "platformFee": 3.0855060328971424, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1648753460489
100
intellectronica
1644762632931
0
https://firebasestorage.…abc-099685488b17
32
1715658720535
0
1648661404738
0.07691441792165009
0.9937064493649825
gb34wjWd9joBezQkrIFX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9937064493649825
will-the-montgomery-county-md-mask
1216.0408418056054
{"NO": 22.999999999999996, "YES": 1190.9591581943946}
Will the Montgomery County, MD mask mandate expire on Feb 21?
1645419540000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 22.999999999999996, "YES": 1191}
0
4.655466131708124
True
play
YES
public
1644771236781
tigrennatenn
Context: https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/montgomery-county-md-maryland-mask-mandate-cdc/65-63be5a6d-0622-4b40-a88b-450c4cb29405 Feb 13, 11:30pm: This should really resolve on Feb 22, not Feb 20 Feb 20, 11:28pm: Actually going to let the market close now and resolve it tomorrow
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 96.3057679963478, "YES": 1210.1340689088931}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1645561926721
100
tigrennatenn
1644771236781
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
10
1715658527395
0
1
1644772035781
0.9937064493649825
0.38525263545494853
lUmu3W1Avzn83oPAflD7
{"NO": 75.33765369749494, "YES": 1133.1105287102118}
0
will-manifold-markets-implement-acc
2907.8997838202367
{"NO": 80.1180037581403, "YES": 287.9912006194898}
Will Manifold Markets implement access control (private markets) by end of 2022
1672549140000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 80, "YES": 291}
0
2.330248303113266
True
play
NO
public
1644771780662
tigrennatenn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 13, 11:31pm: I made this resolve at the wrong time, I will resolve it as N/A unless they add the ability to edit resolve time before then. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Apr 17, 12:58am: Private instances don't count, only the main M...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 128.21990465707438, "YES": 345.05764535316604}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1674081580489
340
tigrennatenn
1672546731159
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
34
1650314739845
0
4
32
[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529558055}]
["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
1672546731001
1662951593433
0.04
0.016590566417573258
KQNaa720MuXvassFoZGk
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.016590566417573258
will-i-make-an-ea-forum-post-in-the
343.89216404221963
{"NO": 296.0078359577804, "YES": 32.1}
Will I make an EA forum post in the next two weeks?
1646024340000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 296.9, "YES": 32.1}
0
4.756755998899752
True
play
NO
public
1644772512597
Kira
I recently had a conversation on discord which surfaced some thoughts that I think would make a good post. A friend offered to compile the contents of the conversation into a document so that I had a starting point from which to edit; I told her there was a >50% chance that I would make a post if she did. Resolves to ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 325.37569674617623, "YES": 42.261852781320414}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007, "YES": 0.000714142842854285}
0
1646167805241
100
Kira
1644772512597
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
13
1715657953192
0
1
0.016590566417573258
0.027404983620744776
sWY2TNMQq61PG2uN1Y8G
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.027404983620744776
will-the-cat-question-be-top-of-mos
192.73567979372854
{"NO": 162.5, "YES": 10.764320206271469}
Will the cat question be top of Most Traded when it resolves?
1648796340000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 162.5, "YES": 10.5}
0
4.868012687441014
True
play
NO
public
1644773461158
charlie
This market resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/JamesMedlock/will-midnight-the-stray-cat-allow-h is the top-ranked question under the "Most Traded" sorting when it is marked as resolved. If the question is not resolved promptly after 4/1/22, if the cat question is resolved to N/A, or if the "Most Traded" sorting ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 170.8746607986216, "YES": 28.68312192104968}
{"creatorFee": 0.4305728082508585, "platformFee": 0.10764320206271462, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1649726181621
100
charlie
1644773461158
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
10
1715658786279
0
1
0.027404983620744776
0.06861870301345507
MIubhQ0THhIfP4iKblGh
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.06861870301345507
will-opening-day-for-major-league-b
802.1266784265385
{"NO": 428.3070710777952, "YES": 111.56625049566628}
Will Opening Day for Major League Baseball occur on March 31, 2022?
1646944827336
QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 430, "YES": 105}
0
4.703615208398357
True
play
NO
public
1644773828815
edavis
This market will resolve to YES if Major League Baseball (MLB) begins the 2022 regular season on March 31, 2022 and NO if the regular season begins on any other day or if the 2022 season is canceled. Mar 1, 2:23pm: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1498783115103326213
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 521.0224390692983, "YES": 141.4210065042835}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}
0
1646944827336
100
edavis
1644773828815
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c
7
1715658008121
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400892}]
["sports-default"]
1644776825561
0.06861870301345507
0.8817315167822535
o35Oq0Eki9gi23kTHjjA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8817315167822535
will-this-question-set-the-record-f
100823.43682148743
{"NO": 4843.276586335145, "YES": 40501.28659217745}
Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?
1647403140000
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5208, "YES": 40043}
0
4.616222565206536
True
play
YES
public
1644774146771
Sam
Can we do it? This question will resolve YES if this question's total money pool exceeds all current and previous questions on the platform. As far as I can tell, the current Russia-Ukraine question holds the record with approximately $19,000 of pooled money.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 8474.623437834898, "YES": 44545.597516770926}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645053540215
100
sam
1644774146771
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
77
1715658669946
0
1645053523381
0.8817315167822535
0.8159969827380599
FVXvOMNlUKpfB1f3jzEM
{"NO": 108.50862258555712, "YES": 167.6402047372159}
0
will-i-do-a-pullup-before-halloween
301.5376630436729
{"NO": 21.5, "YES": 100.37306098092499}
Will I do a pull-up before Halloween?
1667199540000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 21.5, "YES": 101.5}
0
3.3429102153792796
True
play
NO
public
1644774174302
charlie
This market resolves to YES if I can do a full pull-up before 10/31/22. (I'll count a chin-up, too.) Relevant data: I've never done either before. I don't have any kind of real training regimen but I have a pull-up bar in my house and I do a couple of negative pull-ups or hang for a while most days. I'm transmasc and ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 39.44296847618253, "YES": 115.31495556851722}
{"creatorFee": 0.15122718472363353, "platformFee": 0.0017280299420282576, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1669148021924
160
charlie
1667758861593
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
0
20
1650313869311
0
5
20
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1667769690281}]
["please-resolve"]
1667178051723
1667758860421
0.7416319731681427
0.9044933446964896
jIEETNNI2tBlr1G4CV0X
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9044933446964896
will-david-do-1570-or-more-pushups
504.5775901237035
{"NO": 51.90778516977713, "YES": 231.51462470651938}
Will David do 1,570 or more push-ups through Sunday, February 20th?
1645419540000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 52, "YES": 237}
0
4.7773276535184905
True
play
YES
public
1644778833036
David Glidden
I’m doing a push-up challenge with some friends with the aim of doing 10,000 push-ups in 2022. As of Saturday, February 12th, I had done 1,342 push-ups. How many will I have done through end of day Sunday, February 20th? Market resolves “YES” if the final number in column C for the row for this date on the below spr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 77.96077419128987, "YES": 272.49026946553863}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645399730359
100
dglid
1644778833036
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
8
1715658570207
0
0.9044933446964896
0.45109211157824436
xNl2mO3xvyq0AoeYpv6m
{"NO": 130.46064390679715, "YES": 720.50716099887}
0
will-i-get-a-drivers-license-before
1383.6747321773864
{"NO": 14.5, "YES": 48.5}
Will I get a driver's license before Christmas?
1671955140000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 14.5, "YES": 48.5}
0
1.4981763312201855
True
play
NO
public
1644780871746
charlie
This market resolves to YES if I have a driver's license before 12/25/22. (It's fine if it's the temporary paper one because the official card is still in the mail.) Data: I'm 26, I've never been behind the wheel before, I passed the knowledge test and got my learner's permit last week. No one else in my household dri...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 21.225668434704243, "YES": 59.31776294247786}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1671997591540
340
charlie
1671955082399
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
22
1650314820312
0
1
22
1671955082234
1667363994014
0.13
0.9779400464161454
cK7Oyp02KfHl4BU4GdiX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9779400464161454
will-sabriel-and-westwind-hook-up-i
1055
{"NO": 35, "YES": 996}
Will Sabriel and westwind hook up in Feb 2022?
1646121540000
h8aFdc2aWmWXPOz2lZoOMpXsKYU2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 35, "YES": 996}
0
4.662455384902861
True
play
YES
public
1644783076058
Sabriel Star
This market resolves to YES if Sabriel and westwind have performed some sort of sexual activity in February 2022, including in a group context.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 78.86742039746197, "YES": 1027.9800542816238}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0003872983346207417, "YES": 0.0009219544457292888}
0
1644821482015
100
SabrielStar
1644783076058
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzMKxycrJwWwKkHzfw1mIZGrabpWNZoUgdy8V-0=s96-c
8
1715658425142
0
0.9779400464161454
0.6124064615633407
ERnswlICBgJzbiJ69oUd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6124064615633407
will-our-kid-feel-well-enough-to-wa
159
{"NO": 62.75, "YES": 96.25}
Will our kid feel well enough to watch a movie with us today?
1644811200000
rR0GrrJUWJXOUvtbDvcTbeWQSJf1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 62.75, "YES": 96.25}
0
4.887798837664028
True
play
NO
public
1644786104816
Elliot Lindsey
This resolves to YES if by 8pm PST our kid, who has been sick all weekend and spent the morning in bed, feels up to watching a movie today, as is our weekend tradition. The movies we watch are aimed at children and average about an hour long. I will be asking him about it throughout the rest of the day but am not goin...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 98.98926962226766, "YES": 124.42846338619633}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1644808884987
100
elliotlindsey
1644786104816
0
https://firebasestorage.…01d-b6cca01ed79f
7
1715657812787
0
0.6124064615633407
0.3509969202361734
hvxHPFcvapmT8VxxnCxb
{"NO": 70.2745588360556, "YES": 204.80931521183282}
0
will-bobbibella-get-a-modeling-cont
981.5580476261965
{"NO": 330.4737973985543, "YES": 280.96815497524915}
Will Bobbi/Bella get a modeling contract this spring?
1651377540000
ePqQEBJRatXC8tz9V0ko5wAkscA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 340, "YES": 285}
0
3.1340390462450434
True
play
NO
public
1644787155014
Blazer
This market resolves to YES if Bobbi/Bella (https://manifold.markets/BellaKitt) signs a contract to work for a modeling agency before 2022/05/01. She is traveling to New York City for the month of March with the intent of pursuing runway and/or commercial modeling, and with the likely outcome of moving there later. Ini...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 491.84713635886413, "YES": 363.24768197908435}
{"creatorFee": 1.172464326378883, "platformFee": 0.19777368751109817, "liquidityFee": 1.1441087290034713}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1652526559762
101.14410872900346
BlazingDarkness
1644787155014
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgFXM5iTmFQZMMo1NgDTHz1dBKfVXlKT__hq0DPEA=s96-c
14
1650314719644
0
1
1651353876970
0.15652301582260644
0.6914925337042479
GSllQHowv8GVdP71k37F
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6914925337042479
will-i-get-out-of-bed-before-9-am-t
54.34875969101512
{"NO": 10.75, "YES": 22.901240308984878}
Will I get out of bed before 9 am tomorrow?
1644836400000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 10.75, "YES": 23.25}
0
5.516919874042893
True
play
YES
public
1644788314464
jskf
This market resolves to YES if I am awake and outside my bedroom 3 hours before market close. I will not place any new bets on this market myself. Feb 14, 1:36am: It is 01:36 am and I am going to bed.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 18.69161473992923, "YES": 27.983867070648525}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1644857272483
100
jskf
1644788314464
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
6
1715657867634
0
1644789665542
0.6914925337042479
0.1361158491018415
fifbf0KOlk563tYj2Fw9
{"NO": 118.98441869353384, "YES": 126.62085649705057}
0.12896546049520508
will-john-mcguire-ipo-his-startup-b
700.0950764177323
{"NO": 88, "YES": 13}
Will John McGuire IPO his startup by 2030?
1860566340000
s3ksA5chttgb3NKRb1WGAabpeWB2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 88, "YES": 13}
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1644794864224
C.J. Jameson
This resolves to yes if any company in which John McGuire owns more than 1% pre-IPO and is actively involved in, lists and completes an initial public offering of stock on a major US stock exchange
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 93.80925327962056, "YES": 37.430281860012755}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000938083151964686, "YES": 0.00034641016151377546}
0
120
cjcjameson
1681232542197
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiTS2mu6C2MNRkuBtZn1HUISWfNmw8Y1ofYovqLn3g=s96-c
5
1650314702130
0
4
[]
[]
1681232542083
0.6135701998277304
MsF7iSS7bgEuKRpHF3Fz
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6135701998277304
test-resolving-to-na
40
{"NO": 17, "YES": 21}
[TEST] Resolving to N/A
1646207940000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 17, "YES": 21}
0
5.447450153243938
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644795224548
Austin
Feb 16, 10:12am: t google.com, bl Feb 16, 10:12am: test https://google.com, and other stuff (https://google.com) Feb 17, 12:55pm: supsup Feb 17, 12:55pm: dupdup Close date updated to 2022-03-02 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-03 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-01 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 23.62274328904245, "YES": 29.76645764111007}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1648717152968
100
Austin
1644795224548
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
6
1715658033275
0
1
1644795277360
0.6135701998277304
0.7936475561673106
f7u9DGEVdnP30U7zNvxn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7936475561673106
will-i-be-on-a-leave-of-absence-for
2468.3888277241786
{"NO": 466.7071105679356, "YES": 550.904061707886}
Will I be on a leave of absence for most of March-May
1648591552245
v0CLvsusyUfPcTKlU1cD0t8szKg1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 247, "YES": 616}
0
4.663063181150746
True
play
YES
public
1644795786068
Yafah Edelman
Resolves to "YES" if the total amount of time I am paid by my University for being a grad student in March to May 2022 is less than half.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 462.26083718125795, "YES": 906.5591274552363}
{"creatorFee": 16.064446891032865, "platformFee": 4.016111722758216, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1648591552245
100
YafahEdelman
1644795786068
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5U2qG9PuuzeYFQ3soc50IKG8q2nYtTIbAerOWTdw=s96-c
10
1715658498620
0
1644799632838
0.7936475561673106
0.9811929278975033
ovWvPY4jF0GnqbsCJsdb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9811929278975033
will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-c2d925ddc4b9
43218.57641110949
{"NO": 1212.3242062719078, "YES": 10161.099382618608}
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 42% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
1647218478269
wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1185.5, "YES": 10304.5}
0
4.619506902572502
True
play
YES
public
1644795913711
Snehadri Das
This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 42% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 42% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirt...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1559.738697230988, "YES": 11265.966539784304}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1647218478269
100
SnehadriDas
1644795913711
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c
29
1715658693505
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504983}]
["politics-default"]
0.9811929278975033
0.7120067358576275
ijxnD1Qf0Wpcyan84tvB
{"NO": 92.64879095780805, "YES": 103.25911665566144}
0
will-i-eat-sugar-snap-peas-from-my
88.28340662218827
{"NO": 12.541647730948384, "YES": 20.399603993687265}
Will I eat sugar snap peas from my garden before Independence Day?
1656917940000
FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92
cpmm-1
{"NO": 12.5, "YES": 20.5}
0
3.3797374922742396
True
play
NO
public
1644795927183
charlie
I've just planted sugar snap peas. This market resolves to YES if I eat at least one sugar snap pea, grown in my garden, before Independence Day. It resolves to NO if I do not, for any reason, including but not limited to: the peas don't grow; I move before then; animals get there first; I develop an unexpected pea al...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 17.678376636444874, "YES": 27.79688738310929}
{"creatorFee": 0.6823995041406564, "platformFee": 0.00805269185838734, "liquidityFee": 0.04229239077155992}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1659650974914
100.04229239077156
charlie
1656917612144
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c
9
1650314724388
0
1
1656917610845
0.6892734182471826
0.9880829353543643
VmDn2mvvo2BMVusGuK2n
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9880829353543643
how-much-more-will-manifold-spend-o
2598.3183723447637
{"NO": 45.079877454016696, "YES": 742.6017502012196}
How much more will Manifold spend on Firebase in February?
1646121540000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 49, "YES": 743}
0
4.676626702353006
True
play
YES
public
1644797144995
Manifold
This market resolves to the dollar amount of Manifold Market's total Firebase spending in February; each % corresponds to $3 of Firebase spend. See https://manifold.markets/analytics to see our daily traffic patterns. Firebase spending as of Feb 13 is $167: https://i.imgur.com/GZEopOo.png Mar 2, 10:05am: Final spendin...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 85.98761728523219, "YES": 782.975128330055}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0006855654600401045, "YES": 0.0007280109889280518}
0
1646233767138
100
Manifold
1644797144995
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
15
1715658253425
0
1
1645060174263
0.9880829353543643
0.2588430440792094
pdpVTqWSdCEtkGUJ9ARq
{"NO": 93.20720610487794, "YES": 540.3042504660314}
0
will-the-ps5-be-in-stock-all-day-on
541.9396760536983
{"NO": 85, "YES": 55}
Will the PS5 be in stock all day on October 31, 2022?
1666328340000
rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 85, "YES": 55}
0
3.045255913339125
True
play
NO
public
1644797331567
Tobias Pace
This market resolves yes if any model of the PS5 gaming console is available for purchase at MSRP or lower from any reputable online retailer during the entire 24 hour period of 00:00 to 23:39 UTC on October 31, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 92.19636652737461, "YES": 105.3570595648436}
{"creatorFee": 1.2535297509365635, "platformFee": 0.20892162515609392, "liquidityFee": 1.2535297509365635}
{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}
0
1667206696561
181.25352975093656
TobiasPace
1666326188702
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c
9
1650314766618
0
3
10
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665688865489}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1665688868440}]
["gaming", "technology-default"]
1666326188533
0.05682379703685703
0.9801017396552416
3kIhIaErRyHG9WnlqYmv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9801017396552416
will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-2ba77cb080e3
2731.219987170609
{"NO": 205.5, "YES": 2465.280012829391}
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 40% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
1647218510440
wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 205.5, "YES": 2471.5}
0
4.633665109440664
True
play
YES
public
1644799766007
Snehadri Das
This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 40% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 40% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyei...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 376.74355756033447, "YES": 2644.075549285}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1647218510440
100
SnehadriDas
1644799766008
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c
22
1715656946301
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468804}]
["politics-default"]
1647145873456
0.9801017396552416
0.7463113481448468
qYQWarti5krgtk9o2ZNp
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7463113481448468
will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-e528e78037db
541.5609858326802
{"NO": 110.60907508041527, "YES": 269.82993908690446}
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 38% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
1645487940000
wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 111, "YES": 271}
0
4.738447499391898
True
play
YES
public
1644799818682
Snehadri Das
This market resolves to "YES" if Joe Biden's approval rating is greater than or equal to 38% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. This market resolves to "NO" if Joe Biden's approval rating is less than 38% at the given time as per FiveThirtyEight. His approval rating can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyei...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 191.6181793616081, "YES": 328.6595163961833}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1647218526745
100
SnehadriDas
1644799818682
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c
16
1715658739950
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506470}]
["politics-default"]
0.7463113481448468
0.05263116261882447
t5kvD0XHXt0GOhQiydaz
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05263116261882447
will-donald-trump-be-more-than-or-e
947
{"NO": 847, "YES": 100}
Will Donald Trump be more than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics General Election polling average on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
1647218552974
wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 847, "YES": 100}
0
4.666545675746046
True
play
NO
public
1644800138788
Snehadri Das
This market resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is greater than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics. This market resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is less than 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics. The polling average can be found at https:/...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 921.7432907271418, "YES": 217.25607011197638}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1647218552974
100
SnehadriDas
1644800138788
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c
12
1715658800196
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508717}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867657}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "create...
["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]
False
0.05263116261882447
0.3520765948154037
8NA9g76zfZ77VB3XmGkj
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2
if-we-open-source-our-frontend-code
1116.2798613399418
{"NO": 508.9135412289993, "YES": 290.80659743105895}
If we open source our frontend codebase, how many meaningful contributions will we get in the first 30 days?
1651388340000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 509, "YES": 302}
0
3.0385377580478687
True
play
MKT
public
1644800436157
Manifold
"Meaningful contribution" will be fairly subjective, but it could look like "pull request that clearly took more than 1 hour of effort" or "catching and reporting serious bug". We'll use the PROB resolution mechanism, with each 5% = 1 meaningful contribution. Note that this question closes in 2 weeks, but we won't res...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 643.7250503442518, "YES": 474.5228752958393}
{"creatorFee": 0.6312581560823992, "platformFee": 0.1578145390205998, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1661148342265
100
Manifold
1661148321049
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
27
1650313817859
0
1
1661148319168
0.2
0.04907797279038836
7AXLzyBCAFCfwh3OfztI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04907797279038836
will-nordstream-2-be-explicitly-can
1010.5312593378089
{"NO": 649, "YES": 120.46874066219101}
Will NordStream 2 be explicitly canceled by April 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
1649977140000
wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 649, "YES": 125}
0
4.678036738552963
True
play
NO
public
1644800508087
Snehadri Das
This market resolves to "YES" if a senior government official or communication of an EU country states that NordStream 2 will not go forward by the given date. This market resolves to "NO" otherwise.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 750.350194889016, "YES": 170.46485510144075}
{"creatorFee": 4.818749626487644, "platformFee": 1.204687406621911, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1649989329755
100
SnehadriDas
1644800508087
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c
19
1715657617579
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471742}]
["politics-default"]
1649538256934
0.04907797279038836
0.5
AUVdpAGCg4P6t1u591X2
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark
10
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
Will I be able to resolve this market to anything other than YES, NO, or N/A?
1644804000000
TcMgkXozi4PQEwtp5YnA6WUq2yQ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
0
6.366309919943205
True
play
MKT
public
1644801243864
Luna Nova
This market will resolve to the first (Left->Right, Top->Bottom) option other than YES, NO, or N/A that I am offered. If there are no other options, this market resolves to NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644801288660
100
LunaNova
1644801243864
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh0m2VXUIOW2cu2lOR9EpmmmfiIIDTHHExQAJKm=s96-c
1
1715657711243
0
0.5
0.7145951393322383
yH6BlWiEAilCeP9uKO39
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7145951393322383
if-we-call-delta-about-rescheduling
150.37956363281629
{"NO": 36, "YES": 63.620436367183714}
If we call Delta about rescheduling my noncancellablr flight will they do it without a fee
1644904800000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 36, "YES": 69}
0
5.020181246272275
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644801426694
Em ✨
Partner says they bend over backward to help when it's on a Delta card, which this flight is. i am skeptical. Resolves NA if we don't successfully reach a human over a phone by end of day Pacific time.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 53.22105530702744, "YES": 84.21371536672135}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}
0
1644870688495
100
hamnox
1644801426694
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
5
1715658944804
0
0.7145951393322383
0.9949990999685007
vLxeut439CWrSlfDO1Xf
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9949990999685007
will-ian-continue-to-dunk-on-kevin
300
{"NO": 5, "YES": 95.00000000000003}
Will Ian continue to dunk on Kevin in smegbois
1645426740000
e01rVhmJzVfqEKYuNmAxCqXpFWQ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 95}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
YES
public
1644802843945
Ian Simmons
This market resolves yes at Ian's whimsey next time he considers himself to have dunked on Kevin, or no if this doesn't happen before Dec 31, 2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 99.75063909820328}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644941149417
100
IanSimmons
1644802843945
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOnqw9TA7SikmIJTt2d6-k7URKfsc826PKH5qa=s96-c
2
1715658853822
0
0.9949990999685007