p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.2736002360557863 | 6dAPlwcHUqOllHfRSTDy | {"NO": 599.9884526558892, "YES": 0.6018787557660161} | 0 | do-i-feel-alive-today-e74f9b3ae69b | 500 | Do I feel alive today? | 1654542600853 | wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.412032696420752 | True | play | NO | public | 1654542562550 | Trent Yazzo | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06928406466512271, "platformFee": 0.011547344110853786, "liquidityFee": 0.06928406466512271} | 0 | 1654542600853 | 100.06928406466513 | kazoo | 1654542594263 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654542594108 | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28658151426816086 | N0dixxyO0MDx3MeJmyU3 | {"NO": 956.9643826140507, "YES": 5166.150593660054} | 0.06925679670701214 | will-ukraine-regain-control-of-its | 46724.63863478214 | Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025? | 1735686000000 | LLZCCKKLYxP5RdPDw83ISeYDW8V2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2805871711098783 | 9.39891043421932 | False | basic | public | 1654544678994 | Indrek Kivirik | This question will resolve as positive if the Wikipedia article for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine will describe the original areas of the Republic of Ukraine (as of before Russian agression) to be under the de facto control of the Ukrainian government, otherwise it will resolve as negative. | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.002696351101410213, "month": -0.002696351101410213} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.688669945385804, "platformFee": 20.22202264849695, "liquidityFee": 7.954579624404524} | 0 | 1682.9545796244047 | IndrekKivirik | 1719846737602 | 2.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgxHLmYBfWgoPnokhIZZlsG3_EBaxOL-DKbYeTq2A=s96-c | 2 | 117 | 3 | 67 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664465626180}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663172071438}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukra... | ["politics-default", "ukraine", "wars", "russia", "global-macro", "how-it-ends", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.21457767291806346 | 0.75 | 1719846734514 | 1709775575919 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4GVFe7XvU2N27QuesOtL | nomic-i-will-read-answer-choices-fr | 676.2720941510057 | Nomic: I will read answer choices from highest market percent to lowest, and apply all criteria in the order I read them. | 1655179140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.700317831098033 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654545614420 | Duncn | Jun 6, 4:04pm: I will not make any determinations on how to resolve the market until each criteria has read and applied. Unless stated otherwise, operations will be applied to answer choices as they are read through; e.g. "do the opposite of all following rules" will act as if it flips the meaning all following rules. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.694311047937756, "platformFee": 5.673577761984439, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655241366870 | 1440 | Duncn | 1655258766867 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e90f819c4c9f", "prob": 0.03169187986014202, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2866719620013914, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.75892467873088, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4GVFe7XvU2N27QuesOtL", "createdTime": 1654545614511, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | [{"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1662664572657}, {"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662664667320}] | ["nomic", "nomic-garden"] | 1655179136486 | 1655258765465 | {"4b0acb272244": 33, "e066c8d604d3": 67} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34708942715881125 | Tx9a1HiZ66t1WLiNuCul | {"NO": 1259.54324680137, "YES": 568.0471973907685} | 0.54101816294351 | if-trump-is-elected-president-in-20 | 52289.99962173606 | If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote? | 1737392460000 | OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.523208927355468 | False | basic | public | 1654546322137 | Amyg Dala | This question resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has not won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "INVALID" if Donald Trump is not ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0010181629435104256, "month": 0.12101816294351014} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 601.7488581150501, "platformFee": 333.38150677057627, "liquidityFee": 5.170334754561685} | 0 | 1000 | AmygDala | 1720089469219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c | 2 | 363 | 5 | 27 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488569}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581129}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "group... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "magaland"] | 0.75 | 1720089466171 | 1717106040932 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9 | rySE7fZ5zG8HmQWfmCJR | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-market-post-correctly-wit | 0 | Will this market post correctly with the new v2 market creation function? | 1654546429183 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.701635339554948 | True | play | YES | public | 1654546419948 | Marshall Polaris | Get in while it's hot! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654546429183 | 100 | mqp | 1654546419948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888107}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7487815998410019 | lDyFI686Ym3DjdfNXAel | {"NO": 193.01141367036215, "YES": 86.2666396327158} | 1 | will-i-get-all-three-apple-watch-ri | 192.70497863032537 | Will I get all three Apple Watch rings 6/7 days this week? | 1655073590695 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.621534190173861 | True | play | YES | public | 1654551031864 | Charlie | Goals are adjusted markedly down from last week due to failure to achieve this.
Move: 370cal
Exercise: 5min
Stand: 11
Jun 7, 12:54pm: got it Monday, which I’m counting as the first day of the week.
Jun 7, 12:54pm: if I get it all 7 days I will also resolve to YES.
I will not bet NO on this market.
Jun 8, 9:03a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.807735606050006, "platformFee": 0.46795593434166766, "liquidityFee": 2.807735606050006} | 0 | 1655073590695 | 102.80773560605002 | Charlie | 1654922701288 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm", "createdTime": 1664839983154}] | ["charlies-weekly-health-goals"] | 0.75 | 1654922701090 | 0.8696004932139271 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35 | meUd3ebna87U3ra2EVWw | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.35 | how-manifoldmarkets-will-show-up-un | 0 | How manifold.markets will show up under a search for "potat" by August 1, 2022? | 1656510685933 | qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.04680079367009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654552836045 | 1 | before posting of this market, there are 29. note the absence of an "o", and that certain results don't actually have the letters "potat" (a bug may be involved). it may be relevant info that there are currently 11 markets which mention "potato" on this site.
https://manifold.markets/home?s=newest&q=potat
Percentag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656510685933 | 100 | 1 | 1654552836045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.35 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oQu49wHQsOp3Za2H3cCX | will-i-27f-receive-more-questions-a | 272 | Will I receive more questions about my career or marriage prospects? | 1657074591923 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.741072925818874 | True | play | dfa92b80aa1d | public | 1654553303377 | Alice | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a 27-year-old female who's attending two weddings as a guest. Will I receive more questions about my career plans or marriage prospects? Just for fun, in the comments, predict the most uncomfortable question I'm going to get.", "type": "text"}]... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.479999999999999, "platformFee": 2.8699999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657074591923 | 520 | Alice | 1657060009693 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "570875e88967", "prob": 0.07226268932824605, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.8234929298399254, "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.249131630456894, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oQu49wHQsOp3Za2H3cCX", "createdTime": 1654553303472, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1657060008375 | 1656874542209 | {"dfa92b80aa1d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RuYMRqzlWtXvJne855GB | what-is-the-best-strategy-in-ddsci | 171.25869427908017 | What is the best strategy in D&D.Sci June 2022? | 1655092740000 | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.833143523512015 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654553666484 | Multicore | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjgS5mZCQedarYdCb/d-and-d-sci-june-2022-a-goddess-tried-to-reincarnate-me-into
I will resolve to whichever option listed in this market performs best, even if there is a strategy not listed here which is better.
Close date updated to 2022-06-12 11:59 pm
Jun 6, 6:16pm: I've initialized ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.677662512809021, "platformFee": 1.1694156282022552, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655119367156 | 420 | Multicore | 1655122748608 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1a3b7e7a5cc4", "prob": 0.23855529613977705, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.242726428337873, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.46136171729949, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RuYMRqzlWtXvJne855GB", "createdTime": 1654553666550, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 1655018707147 | 1655122745352 | {"3cff6d1447c2": 36.270538780723264, "8f1cce31d246": 28.555498603865647, "c6368e68bdfb": 35.17396261541109} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XcvsBNh3cF8SV7CJ83TN | which-font-will-manifold-be-using-o | 998.3293928554732 | Which font will Manifold be using on July 1st? | 1656651540000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.66704406256112 | True | play | 4323670b9e1c | public | 1654554363924 | SG | Manifold is currently using Readex Pro for most of its content, but we're considering alternatives. (I personally don't like it, and the one professional designer I showed the site to irl didn't like it either because it seemed "a little goofy".)
This market will resolve to the most commonly used font on our site at t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.44, "platformFee": 1.86, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656684786062 | 620.0000000000001 | SG | 1656651116166 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "88baff3451b3", "prob": 0.011373637830186991, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.13012529363529227, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.310831028177965, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XcvsBNh3cF8SV7CJ83TN", "createdTime": 1654554364008, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 1656651114669 | 1654796111711 | {"4323670b9e1c": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07225603769880182 | DPopfkdX0dyA6x8hJu85 | {"NO": 600, "YES": 3.268496584496461e-13} | 1 | is-this-daily-free-market-system-re | 500 | Is this daily free market system really dumb? | 1654555033253 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.651849538631096 | True | play | YES | public | 1654555010560 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0658141036401503e-13, "platformFee": 1.7763568394002505e-14, "liquidityFee": 1.0658141036401503e-13} | 0 | 1654555033253 | 100.00000000000011 | IsaacKing | 1654555025135 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654555023725 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5043444210313051 | nzXErmqh82vfV0KzA6GB | {"NO": 246.1924598442429, "YES": 44.09547816627419} | 1 | will-i-still-think-the-notification | 147 | Will I still think the notification bubble color should be blue on July 1st? | 1656655140000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0648852172457275 | True | play | YES | public | 1654555379690 | Ian Philips | Stephen wants it to be red, does anyone else want it to be red or a different color? I personally think red is too jarring/distracting. Twitter dark mode uses a blue similar to our current color that I like. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2352286482577504, "platformFee": 0.2855376985001449, "liquidityFee": 1.7132261910008688} | 0 | 1656683500742 | 101.71322619100086 | ian | 1656081542922 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656079764052 | 1656081539345 | 0.8503227236911883 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4922482691087979 | u53uS73lODqL6RtGNd76 | {"NO": 135.52936808295988, "YES": 192.69008629009357} | 0 | draw-an-emoji | 4145.026831140879 | Draw an Emoji | 1655189940000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9459986668478026 | True | play | NO | public | 1654558983324 | SneakySly | After resolution, if I think you did a good enough job of drawing at least one emoji I will resolve YES. Otherwise I will resolve NO.
Jun 9, 1:03pm: To clarify, with the graph above! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.21438120221256, "platformFee": 5.369063533702095, "liquidityFee": 32.21438120221256} | 0 | 1655190407535 | 132.21438120221256 | SneakySly | 1656615354560 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.5 | 1655187569541 | 1656615351472 | 0.4054266354500632 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13508804977998012 | MSMOQNzERuSxf35PtoFZ | {"NO": 534.9288989327069, "YES": 8271.347932271608} | 0 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-senate-nex | 14910.365047106588 | Will Joe Manchin run for Senate next cycle? | 1719374544798 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1654561440916 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | Resolves NO if Manchin announces retirement, misses the filing deadline, or makes some other obvious indicator of not running.
Resolves YES if he enters the primary for his next eligible term | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01985373737560831} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.05302593005151, "platformFee": 3.7521732065137963, "liquidityFee": 1.4823555935056734} | 0 | 1719374544798 | 1000 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1719374544798 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492245}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364823}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": ... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "olivia", "us-congressional-elections-2024"] | 0.5 | 1719367137772 | 1719367145017 | 0.01 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06569380245835102 | XqK1nn3TmVG83hF5PglL | {"NO": 939.1179890061198, "YES": 1775.9725089447613} | 0.035847973490503594 | will-there-be-a-space-station-with | 1986.2863916377962 | Will there be a space station with artificial gravity by June 2026? | 1780372740000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1654564940709 | Bolton Bailey | This question resolves Yes if, on or before the close date, there is a space station which has artificial gravity (presumably to be achieved by rotation). The gravity must be at least 0.05g at the strongest, and the rotation of the station must have been intentionally effected, specifically for the purpose of creating ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3844306965407598, "platformFee": 0.544119123967715, "liquidityFee": 0.6965410823636935} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1715775449105 | 0.1 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529450006}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462071}] | ["technology-default", "space"] | 0.11169697396776888 | 0.25 | 1715775445942 | 1682930926384 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22022379015221166 | foFNd1EeDBwAvDmEXMIN | {"NO": 137.1847473937125, "YES": 1221.5980288690607} | 0 | in-2022-will-mm-offer-suggested-exi | 1309.2916384731577 | In 2022, will MM offer suggested existing markets as you create a new market? | 1672491540000 | jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5006570091550566 | True | play | NO | public | 1654565803245 | Undox | Resolves YES if MM show existing markets that might be the market you wanted to create as you type the title. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9140909593021114, "platformFee": 0.31122938575515635, "liquidityFee": 1.867376314530938} | 0 | 1673156329455 | 261.86737631453093 | Undox | 1672481017213 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0.5 | 1672481017044 | 1654567372179 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8063713248960116 | 7jypBSOdU6Mw4hhwu8sU | {"NO": 25917.49658642224, "YES": 247.6493789155793} | 1 | will-ron-desantis-run-for-president | 27203.594170422755 | Will Ron DeSantis run for President in 2024? | 1684978573289 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9677490351171096 | True | play | YES | public | 1654566339123 | N.C. Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.634692629880242, "platformFee": 0.3013791955434551, "liquidityFee": 1.8082751732607303} | 0 | 1684978573289 | 661.8082751732608 | NcyRocks | 1684978533651 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472270}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580224}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4J... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "magaland"] | 0.5 | 1684978533503 | 1684977961713 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000167212404347 | iBkfLpiFuZRztrWAVGOs | {"NO": 111.84654103873436, "YES": 92.42822056122343} | 0.5475464761948884 | when-will-the-united-methodist-chur | 30 | When will the United Methodist Church allow pastors to be “self-avowed, practicing homosexuals”? | 1654655630468 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.744056810908271 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654568867075 | Martin Randall | Current position: https://www.umc.org/en/content/ask-the-umc-what-is-the-churchs-position-on-homosexuality
This market resolves PROB according to when the UMC changes its position:
- YES in 2022
- 80% in 2023
- 60% in 2024
- 50% in 2025
- 40% in 2026
- 30% in 2027
- 20% in 2028
- 10% in 2029
This market resolves NO i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654655630468 | 100.83726230649329 | MartinRandall | 1654655666403 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500788}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1654607422269 | 1654655662604 | 0.5475464761948884 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4522313222427803 | zzSp5HMz8BIVr4BcUZBM | {"NO": 99.28630254674542, "YES": 2354.176280938848} | 0 | will-max-go-to-prom-with-a-girl | 10007.293915825005 | Will Max go to prom with a girl? | 1655524740000 | gwQd02hedOMqWaze0YzpZ7EOO763 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6166053574026837 | True | play | NO | public | 1654573361029 | ryfuzzi | This question resolves to YES if Max, a high school senior, goes to his grad formal with a girl as his date, and NO otherwise. Max recently ended things with his girlfiend, and is not sure whether or not he will take someone to prom as of June 6, 2022. The prom in question will take place on June 17th, 2022.
Jun 7, 12... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 69.99200125528849, "platformFee": 10.977464748142907, "liquidityFee": 65.86478848885743} | 0 | 1655743656396 | 365.8647884888573 | ryfuzzi | 1655752098860 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwq-qHwYFlByvoZNG1HjxIiQJgsNl589fcvTPYL=s96-c | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 1655518175647 | 1655752099697 | 0.033647243549409886 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5491233623735552 | kd3gCDjvlI2YyDiueARc | {"NO": 2298.8662936175324, "YES": 71.08753766541611} | 1 | poll-is-yudkowsky-right-to-be-pessi | 2473.466567316856 | Poll: Is Yudkowsky right to be pessimistic about AI alignment? | 1655182740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.025443615918479 | True | play | YES | public | 1654575361989 | SG | Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether you think Eliezer Yudkowsky's pessimism as articulated in his recent post "AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities" ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities ) is justified.
This market will resolve YES if a majority of ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.963100376697266, "platformFee": 2.9938500627828772, "liquidityFee": 17.963100376697266} | 0 | 1655216584252 | 332.96310037669724 | SG | 1683615626737 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532879}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1655182665475 | 1683615624061 | 0.9752384189075413 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5128166677448148 | Z0TrGTIghJ2lS5knTqj8 | {"NO": 381.90749352192137, "YES": 31.661397713903966} | 0.92 | poll-would-you-use-limit-orders | 399.53905609719016 | Poll: Would you use limit orders? | 1655189940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3787767731530884 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654577385440 | Jack | If Manifold added support for limit orders in some form (meaning, being able to place a standing bet/order to buy YES at up to a price of .60 from another trader for the next day, for example), would you use them? (Don't count using them just to try them out - let's say a month later do you think you would still be usi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3207022853311825, "platformFee": 0.5534503808885305, "liquidityFee": 3.3207022853311825} | 0 | 1655352496045 | 103.32070228533117 | jack | 1655352257569 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655136068615 | 1655352252808 | 0.92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06693729108720876 | bgrEoV4wNSM15FiZcYX7 | {"NO": 199.99998188051632, "YES": 0.00040817293577877223} | 1 | will-resolve-what-everything-else-h | 100 | Will resolve what everything else has. | 1654579571793 | MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.125090873627006 | True | play | YES | public | 1654579551806 | Electricitypipe | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.00010871690214075969, "platformFee": 1.8119483690126614e-05, "liquidityFee": 0.00010871690214075969} | 0 | 1654579571793 | 100.00010871690215 | Electricitypipe | 1654579568492 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654579566760 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49964755341732053 | txbTO5lsjmJr7wcPhEIL | {"NO": 127.71295619730964, "YES": 94.54268054338814} | 1 | will-the-warriors-win-game-5-of-the | 195.3583733107714 | Will the Warriors win Game 5 of the NBA Finals 2022? | 1655168340000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.599600976934276 | True | play | YES | public | 1654589507296 | howtodowtle | Market for Game 2: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-2-of-the (resolved)
Market for Game 3: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-3-of-the
Market for Game 4: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.947386860226245, "platformFee": 0.824564476704374, "liquidityFee": 4.947386860226245} | 0 | 1655189924198 | 104.94738686022626 | howtodowtle | 1655076637863 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409311}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1655076634377 | 0.5742772671297267 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20140077287595318 | 7jR3CNDZy8yFpTAe8qML | {"NO": 107.89476245769123, "YES": 91.78329648428826} | 0 | short-fuse-will-the-conservatives-w | 570.9809672675582 | (Short fuse) Will the Conservatives win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election? | 1655938740000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.179355231862438 | True | play | NO | public | 1654603223322 | Jonathan Nankivell | This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tiverton_and_Honiton_by-election
Jun 7, 6:06pm: The same, but for the Lib Dems: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/short-fuse-will-the-lib-dems-win-th | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.219575140700108, "platformFee": 0.3705213494464908, "liquidityFee": 2.2231280966789444} | 0 | 1656061296887 | 102.22312809667895 | JonathanNankivell | 1655924042004 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472187}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.2 | 1655924041848 | 1655308821297 | 0.22866999596357857 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5408670767244034 | SfiaOuYC9rOH91g9EFy8 | {"NO": 950.961884779516, "YES": 815.4193217751777} | 0 | will-the-up-arrow-on-this-question-98d033adac45 | 44570.257738733875 | Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow? | 1655265540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.43681713417731644 | True | play | NO | public | 1654613828387 | Predictor 🔥 | Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close?
Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally.
Jun 15, 9:02am: Final tally
YES (number of $10 bets yes / up arrow): 1503
N... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 913.2745487532461, "platformFee": 152.21242479220822, "liquidityFee": 913.2745487532461} | 0 | 1655300183685 | 72.66444846538054 | Predictor | 1656646169477 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655265538834 | 1656646167372 | 0.5787405310470793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8495660624879109 | dwxba5ruCKJiEcEetUPU | {"NO": 2972.2757497171215, "YES": 219.48903442642433} | 1 | will-trump-announce-his-2024-presid | 6363.935860184318 | Will Trump announce his 2024 presidential campaign by the end of 2022? | 1668566936736 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.534535082929571 | True | play | YES | public | 1654615235406 | Brian T. Edwards | Resolves YES if Trump files formal paperwork with the FEC that he is a candidate for the GOP nomination. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.77281792889634, "platformFee": 0.12596549478174787, "liquidityFee": 0.7557929686904872} | 0 | 1668566936736 | 490.0962461057112 | BTE | 1668566524098 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 42 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581871}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496810}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "E... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "magaland", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1668566523894 | 1667950281094 | False | 0.9870928486404255 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15316271001374326 | 6w0w7z0dmJfofvMFdBqj | {"NO": 44.3229538194471, "YES": 0.991193919941146} | 1 | i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-1f2904c3e654 | 1335 | I will resolve this question YES. | 1654646400000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.663138163479822 | True | play | YES | public | 1654617789576 | Matt P | This question will resolve to YES shortly after closing. Get you some of that free money. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6328367429281772, "platformFee": 0.10547279048802954, "liquidityFee": 0.6328367429281772} | 0 | 1654653474915 | 100.63283674292816 | MattP | 1654653814162 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1654645893330 | 1654653811821 | 0.889960728063831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7506382876390967 | Wgt1kSFRL5YH9X2Wh9RS | {"NO": 131.56833674446156, "YES": 93.9325058992382} | 1 | short-fuse-will-the-lib-dems-win-th | 670 | (Short fuse) Will the Lib Dems win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election? | 1655938740000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.660314368304186 | True | play | YES | public | 1654621530972 | Jonathan Nankivell | This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tiverton_and_Honiton_by-election
Jun 7, 6:07pm: The same, but for the Tories: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/short-fuse-will-the-conservatives-w | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.48433803702041, "platformFee": 0.18039952841554877, "liquidityFee": 1.0823971704932924} | 0 | 1656061217400 | 101.0823971704933 | JonathanNankivell | 1655924014677 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529490717}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.75 | 1655924013408 | 0.8082949874841541 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.707973418505328 | FmVLu7lgRsECsjcMWRXt | {"NO": 1510.5811651759811, "YES": 41.66994899440294} | 1 | if-sfs-da-chesa-boudin-is-recalled | 1585.2164309718294 | If SF's DA, Chesa Boudin, is recalled, in 2023 will have the same or less crime as 2019. | 1704005754068 | 5wimE4rvzuVMBbkeY6Yzu89tk823 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.280980876983048 | True | play | YES | public | 1654622349627 | Evan Conrad | This question resolves yes if all of the following are true:
- Larceny-Theft is less than or equal to 64,000
- Burglary is less than or equal to 4644
- Auto theft is less than or equal to 4249
- Aggravated Assault is less than 2514
This question resolves N/A if Chesa Boudin is not recalled.
Jun 7, 11:53am:
Source ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.87512454118548, "platformFee": 0.31252075686424674, "liquidityFee": 1.87512454118548} | 0 | 1704005754068 | 161.87512454118547 | EvanConrad | 1704005755098 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwWC9VGCINJOQ9cvn65Xj4i42sqhYtTrsSXWDGh=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478972}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.75 | 1704004728940 | 1704004259407 | 0.99 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7376282761649274 | NSGsHi3PMQI1gFPozbIR | {"NO": 159.11795910264567, "YES": 90.20871933790013} | 0.8321856766014291 | if-sfs-da-chesa-boudin-is-not-recal | 380.4466960745086 | If SF's DA, Chesa Boudin, is NOT recalled, in 2023 will have the same or less crime as 2019. | 1654882094516 | 5wimE4rvzuVMBbkeY6Yzu89tk823 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.504367108738659 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654622389880 | Evan Conrad | This question resolves yes if all of the following are true:
- Larceny-Theft is less than or equal to 64,000
- Burglary is less than or equal to 4644
- Auto theft is less than or equal to 4249
- Aggravated Assault is less than 2514
This question resolves N/A if Chesa Boudin is not recalled.
Jun 7, 10:20am:
Correct... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654882094516 | 102.61206893707448 | EvanConrad | 1654882160577 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwWC9VGCINJOQ9cvn65Xj4i42sqhYtTrsSXWDGh=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.75 | 1654797545379 | 1654882159179 | 0.8321856766014291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49900523856841605 | 0QLwyrOCF7evskvLmQ0F | {"NO": 21.437293189650063, "YES": 515.1736534275251} | 0 | will-i-build-anything-meaningful-in | 494 | Will I build anything meaningful in Svelte in the next 3 months? | 1659941940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.829543002008782 | True | play | NO | public | 1654622596401 | Austin | React is kinda boring at this point, and actually not that great for building interfaces (verbose for many common use cases). I used to enjoy Vue a lot, but at this point all my smartest frontend friends are on Svelte (n=2). And SvelteKit seems to be a drop-in for NextJS?
On the flip side, https://mcfunley.com/choose-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.0585633135848, "platformFee": 0.396486445445863, "liquidityFee": 2.3789186726751774} | 0 | 1664990516934 | 102.37891867267518 | Austin | 1659865142446 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.5 | 1659865142282 | 1654714643001 | 0.039797083293406914 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5209502505537648 | AOI9GqGPQYFm6TWvFBQv | {"NO": 1769.0385995144577, "YES": 13.483406547639914} | 1 | planecrash-jvyy-xrygunz-oernx-uvf-p | 3947.442473857267 | [planecrash] jvyy xrygunz oernx uvf pyrevp obaq jvgu nonqne orsber gur raq bs gur "pevfvf bs snvgu" guernq? | 1655410173346 | iY6DLyMorqe8gpKLoMWE961B5Nu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.552266359867849 | True | play | YES | public | 1654626423044 | Jade Rustle | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.972765010851425, "platformFee": 3.587824966002855, "liquidityFee": 21.526949796017124} | 0 | 1655410173346 | 121.52694979601709 | JadeRustle | 1655409905697 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg6QGKJVOqTdWj4-3zwYhgefZvikipVdeqyrgvlRQ=s96-c | 18 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391330}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541912}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1655409905518 | 1654652804134 | 0.9930399333304796 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3410538492051869 | A6iDm8dg77oqwSJYu4Ga | {"NO": 93.67077082771286, "YES": 152.49267970483953} | 0 | will-i-succeed-in-averaging-3-hours | 392.3268325144628 | Will I succeed in averaging ≥ 3 hours of (offline) reading every day for the next week? | 1655160039378 | qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.895051940126458 | True | play | NO | public | 1654629655902 | 1 | Might not use a stopwatch every day but I will try to honestly estimate it.
I don’t think I’ve done such a thing consistently/successfully since maybe 2 years ago (unless you count some 2 day speedreading bouts wherein I may have hit 21hours)
I will be be investing 50 in the yes direction at start, but I will not ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4074531495054465, "platformFee": 0.901242191584241, "liquidityFee": 5.4074531495054465} | 0 | 1655160039378 | 105.40745314950546 | 1 | 1655152679912 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.33 | 1655152679736 | 1654897673772 | 0.24123293449280866 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5WTSpEOL5v3RiRhEXRH5 | which-of-my-markets-that-resolve-by | 300.58263327897566 | Which of my markets that resolve by the end of this month will have the largest volume bet pool? | 1656658740000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.780558335262171 | True | play | d8c249e0eeb4 | public | 1654630765629 | SneakySly | Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.563198458911549, "platformFee": 1.1407996147278872, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656695484062 | 480.00000000000006 | SneakySly | 1656295892661 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c29ae42005b2", "prob": 0.12993696242628489, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.24028246706992, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.39309904264094, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5WTSpEOL5v3RiRhEXRH5", "createdTime": 1654630765708, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 1656295891456 | 1654684990257 | {"d8c249e0eeb4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5252060288207775 | Qw2TKiizDV3Q9R0XFhvk | {"NO": 705.38991379493, "YES": 18.959600342438605} | 1 | will-users-have-a-public-follower-c | 930.3060626802068 | Will users have a public follower count by the end of the month? | 1654659640967 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.12036403429672 | True | play | YES | public | 1654632349905 | Enopoletus Harding | Resolves yes if users have a public follower count by the end of the month. Resolves no if they do not. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4504482973249173, "platformFee": 0.5750747162208197, "liquidityFee": 3.4504482973249173} | 0 | 1654659640967 | 103.45044829732488 | EnopoletusHarding | 1654659619844 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654652819411 | 1654659617294 | 0.9762781265328552 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27646433991953895 | En3OJ2BRlC2evOOWcNAD | {"NO": 1683.0846283736919, "YES": 0.09337201393213945} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-f60818f6ae44 | 2033.7075633856252 | Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows resolving markets by July 1st, 2022? | 1656628317544 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.099119717000523 | True | play | YES | public | 1654634665747 | Scott Lawrence | This question resolves YES if at any point below July 1st, there is a public, officially documented API through which markets may be resolved. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.93629655803478, "platformFee": 1.1154416542756216, "liquidityFee": 6.692649925653729} | 0 | 1656628317544 | 106.69264992565374 | ScottLawrence | 1656628293164 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.25 | 1656628293076 | 1656628276301 | 0.9914707510632037 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24963228674308724 | XDpavUG5jwu97aLplPSV | {"NO": 99.53880310015913, "YES": 109.57652409033018} | 0.2 | how-many-students-will-show-up-to-m | 55 | How many students will show up to myvextra session of office hours? (Count as % divided by 4) | 1654663064233 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.650139739835969 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654635689503 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | It is tonight. I announced it at midnight last night. I will resolve to PROB of the correct number in the morning. During the last two (regular) sessions I had 8 and 13 students, respectively | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9773208377934179, "platformFee": 0.162886806298903, "liquidityFee": 0.9773208377934179} | 0 | 1654663064233 | 100.97732083779341 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1654658483257 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492229}] | ["olivia"] | 0.25 | 1654658481407 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5157420802324256 | pvHqacRFC5QisjXkUaON | {"NO": 142.63733629641715, "YES": 124.32058500098097} | 0 | this-question-closes-with-an-even-p | 735.2248112211025 | This question closes with an even probability | 1655276340000 | fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2488916152490717 | True | play | NO | public | 1654644709756 | J. F. Jurchen | This question resolves to YES if, when it closes, the ones digit of its probability is even. Anything after the ones digit will be dropped. 0% => YES, 50% => YES, 51% => NO, 51.9% => NO, 52.1% => YES, 100% => YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.444259558974164, "platformFee": 2.7407099264956933, "liquidityFee": 16.444259558974164} | 0 | 1655305681115 | 116.44425955897412 | jfjurchen | 1655276331943 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655276331787 | 1655228501346 | 0.5499406365467077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4975527084132598 | P5hLLBHy4HoVdTk3hsv2 | {"NO": 18.765356747975545, "YES": 583.4756599306552} | 0 | will-turkey-undertake-significant-n | 503.071405962898 | Will Turkey undertake significant new military operations in Syria before the 18th? | 1655524740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.023261446343102 | True | play | NO | public | 1654646900996 | Duncn | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been planning a "major military operation" to create a 30km buffer zone inside Syria along Turkey’s border. Will we see troops taking this buffer zone (or trying to) by the end of day on the 17th? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.021269234825082, "platformFee": 0.31366702567566673, "liquidityFee": 1.8820021540540006} | 0 | 1655557678952 | 101.882002154054 | Duncn | 1655520163876 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416961}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484475}, {"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKot... | ["politics-default", "world-default", "turkey"] | 0.5 | 1655520162564 | 0.030865045691738927 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07884816237890392 | yADu57q7ADe75eRaycZo | {"NO": 976.8413685023256, "YES": 1017.5648524816504} | 0.07593222475397125 | will-apple-find-a-way-to-not-use-us | 2402.62902077137 | Will Apple find a way to not use USB C in their phones post autumn 2024 | 1726354800000 | oo35Ce7Y10RjKbpNf6VlZqdZNah1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.377006186700076 | False | basic | public | 1654650884705 | Nils | This question resolves to "YES" if phones sold by Apple in the EU in Autumn 2024, do not feature a USB C port following a new law:
https://www.engadget.com/eu-reaches-deal-to-make-usb-c-a-common-charger-for-most-electronic-devices-104605067.html
This could be by only having wireless charging for example | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9308206422549223, "platformFee": 0.24223926501904977, "liquidityFee": 0.8523777554084002} | 0 | 1000 | Nils | 1716856221737 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyNa3-FVU-2w0nedM7jRSrCZ53mqwAZD5zwZudQ=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529456206}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1716856218000 | 1685971044804 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | 6MhLisvvuMMJV1rgz35z | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-eb6ed03000ac | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654652073234 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654652064145 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654652073234 | 100.01704414600928 | unit_24601 | 1654652071521 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654652069916 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | rob0f9BTOiDeUSV55ZJ2 | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-6c72f46e24f4 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654652096883 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654652085973 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654652096883 | 100.01704414600928 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1654652093708 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654652092290 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | unc7eXWxw2i5J6WCJsdy | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-a8d56ce241f9 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654652122834 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654652111978 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654652122834 | 100.01704414600928 | SayJarva | 1654652119742 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654652118427 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
X28JrhTxfNif46UCO8Ra | what-will-be-the-topic-of-timnit-ge | 151.77936949092305 | What will be the topic of Timnit Gebru's most recent tweet as of June 23, 2022, at 9:00 PM EDT? | 1656032400000 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.961669960272037 | True | play | 89ba59e110b5 | public | 1654652366248 | Peter Berggren | This question resolves to whichever topic, according to my discretion, is discussed in Timnit Gebru's most recent tweet as of 9:00 PM EDT on 2022-06-23, as obtained from https://twitter.com/timnitGebru. Free responses are allowed right up to resolution time; resolutions of the category "other" will not be accepted, oth... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.6118925993347455, "platformFee": 1.1529731498336864, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656036469645 | 320 | PeterBerggren | 1656036573601 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9ec11f8d86e8", "prob": 0.6914978758735213, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.20279364732583, "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.9511395229986, "textFts": "", "contractId": "X28JrhTxfNif46UCO8Ra", "createdTime": 1654652366325, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491058}] | ["politics-default"] | 1656030543303 | 1656036564467 | {"89ba59e110b5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5971212642735224 | M2xDNFS5MLgb1mbrMHrd | {"NO": 204.6189809355769, "YES": 158.6495963041081} | 1 | will-the-united-methodist-church-bo | 600.9852457975463 | Will the United Methodist Church Book of Discipline allow pastors to be “self-avowed, practicing homosexuals" in 2024? | 1713844740000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1654655618300 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current position: https://www.umc.org/en/content/ask-the-umc-what-is-the-churchs-position-on-homosexuality Closes at the start of the 2024 General Conference, resolves once the result is clear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3085767287784331, "platformFee": 0.1616458486407053, "liquidityFee": 0.9698750918442318} | 0 | 1714749127402 | 180.96987509184424 | MartinRandall | 1713844740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482874}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1710931663116 | 1714749109856 | 0.66 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OKUh9gC0SWjG0lBkXx7i | what-team-will-win-the-2023-mit-mys | 70 | What team will win the 2023 MIT Mystery Hunt? | 1668837540000 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.872282915004588 | True | play | 2d116e976fb5 | public | 1654660859448 | Alex Power | Next January, an MIT Mystery Hunt will be held. Some team will win. But whom? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673890229626 | 440 | AlexPower | 1654754955978 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ae9d45191ccb", "prob": 0.3460207612456747, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.135445465835513, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.055991930429116, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OKUh9gC0SWjG0lBkXx7i", "createdTime": 1654660859528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 2 | 4 | [{"name": "MIT", "slug": "mit", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TKAbWFIO8fNfwtAaT53G", "createdTime": 1670968741667}] | ["mit"] | 1654754952094 | 1654664342395 | {"2d116e976fb5": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2864458658184268 | xeoo2Sce5YpqZVyI6Wt2 | {"NO": 180.4145031609188, "YES": 267.75368037435527} | 0 | will-steve-die-in-stranger-things-s | 104 | Will Steve die in Stranger Things season 4 volume II? | 1656669600000 | hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9843391676242728 | True | play | NO | public | 1654662512562 | Warty | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1964525231240835, "platformFee": 0.17536317995647394, "liquidityFee": 1.0521790797388437} | 0 | 1657145028812 | 201.0521790797388 | warty | 1656623467783 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548744}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.3 | 1656623467683 | 1654716806822 | 0.212902268995297 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5211895843439148 | nCuwgU4yMmELlDRCoOAI | {"NO": 1002.9348098636547, "YES": 12.772730442231698} | 1 | the-probability-this-resolves-yes-i | 5883.888896167998 | The probability this resolves YES is the market probability at close | 1655276340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.731262896459349 | True | play | YES | public | 1654663158154 | Jack | Let p be the market probability at close (a number between 0 and 1). I will generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < p.
(If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random numb... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.42477480528598, "platformFee": 6.737462467547664, "liquidityFee": 40.42477480528598} | 0 | 1655352290722 | 163.24719040655933 | jack | 1655307997147 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655276338020 | 1655307989957 | 0.9884354900697871 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
M0RV18MEEGnoE4rrkiRB | will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f | 572 | Will Manifold Markets add a Merge Function for Multiple Answer Questions by the end of the year? | 1672556340000 | eWpI4ow7Hcdh4eyrJfFj0rtrMc13 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.686835825351853 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654667859102 | Honourary | This market will resolve to yes if there is *any* merge functionality added to Free Response questions before the end of the year.
In markets that allow multiple answers, sometimes duplicate answers are created by users. This disrupts the accuracy of the market and will distort payouts and costs. For example, in the @... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673334568461 | 739.9999999999999 | Honourary | 1673334703629 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f3ff269bb912", "prob": 0.022144274376417233, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2814011527466817, "userId": "eWpI4ow7Hcdh4eyrJfFj0rtrMc13", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.42622466344907, "textFts": "", "contractId": "M0RV18MEEGnoE4rrkiRB", "createdTime": 1654667859182, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 2 | 12 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557439}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 1672552315549 | 1673334700371 | {"354c073ebcc4": 50.133283065196316, "c2cc55272749": 49.866716934803684} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7000437691785264 | HRZO69tEcR7bZTk8LYAW | {"NO": 109.97277932772106, "YES": 96.45688414206883} | 0.7268388860723431 | will-i-reach-1337-elo-in-polytopia | 10 | Will I reach 1337 ELO in Polytopia at any point in time before end of July? | 1655205421694 | ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2953659475120523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654675708605 | Gunne | My current Polytopia ELO is 1209 and I have played 37 games so far. I only recently started playing Polytopia in multiplayer but played singleplayer a lot. I play mostly Cymanti and Kickoo.
My Alias is Gunneone. Feel free to challenge me. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655205421694 | 100.16332403367359 | Gunneone | 1654677700098 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjcE6LJtZHT6ux-SyRkITOlJbypw9tv1Nf0p5SBTQ=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | 1654677696217 | 1654676653379 | 0.726838886072343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9885299689629359 | 1IHtA9f3XDrqm6gFTxJU | {"NO": 582.3773988250014, "YES": 172.79261888035762} | 1 | will-australia-qualify-for-the-2022 | 122920.9176383942 | Will Australia qualify for the 2022 FIFa World Cup | 1655207779538 | pUtoNAOGWBgFyIl5jswx8bIso272 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1654681100624 | Watt | This question resolves to YES if Australia beats Peru and qualifies the World Cup. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.229776684665557, "platformFee": 0.7049627807775928, "liquidityFee": 4.229776684665557} | 0 | 1655207779538 | 272.2297766846655 | YairNeumann | 1655170029810 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwi5kvCPCTPH5fir9Eq5x94Dc7QApcOZUXalJIw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395499}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112332}] | ["sports-default", "australia"] | 0.25 | 1655170029654 | 0.9965691410590442 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5221782268478091 | 7DmMDRYV47OK9oiwaSkr | {"NO": 72453.39210347366, "YES": 63.80393061409268} | 1 | will-mike-pence-run-for-president-i | 103811.65947037103 | Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024? | 1686001970002 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.14288621366266252 | True | basic | YES | public | 1654692069120 | N.C. Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3542546093643075, "platformFee": 0.382825117480769, "liquidityFee": 2.2969507048846136} | 0 | 1686001970002 | 1902.2969507048847 | NcyRocks | 1698699348931 | 0 | 5 | 154 | 0 | 100 | [{"name": "ArbBot Inbox", "slug": "arbbot-inbox", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HjArp8Z2Otc2dDiRHtBb", "createdTime": 1672379229965}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580158}, {"name": "Pol... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "arbbot-inbox", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1685998859868 | 1698699348089 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4962428830604766 | WlSsbZ5JTM072cfBdbGb | {"NO": 42.5522366394312, "YES": 261.05265862488307} | 0 | can-i-change-my-name-by-august-22nd | 200.80092917783458 | Can I change my name by August 22nd? | 1660535940000 | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0800247288303395 | True | play | NO | public | 1654695609845 | Probajoelistic | This question resolves YES if I have a social security card with my new name by the end of the day August 21st, 2022. Question closes a week prior.
Background:
I (M26) got married a few months ago. My wife and I decided to take a new(ish) last name, but the process has been insane because we are not taking either of ou... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2457394732429656, "platformFee": 0.390761727971794, "liquidityFee": 2.3445703678307637} | 0 | 1660596368527 | 102.34457036783076 | probajoelistic | 1660597036423 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1660481109671 | 1660597033041 | 0.13835524211150121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4892368219431436 | 12AumLrHsK2dINc1YPfI | {"NO": 169.00374167044598, "YES": 624.3765812440299} | 1 | will-i-get-above-a-73-on-my-biology | 641.2984577550749 | Will I get above a 73% on my biology exam? | 1655308740000 | gwQd02hedOMqWaze0YzpZ7EOO763 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2409145977717593 | True | play | YES | public | 1654697919622 | ryfuzzi | This question will resolve to "YES" if I get a mark of 73.1% or higher on my biology final exam today. I am a high school senior who will take my final exam for Grade 12 Biology today. I currently have a 91% in biology, a good sign! Unfortunately, I haven't studied much at all for this exam. I got a 73% on my midterm, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.25769832222037, "platformFee": 1.7096163870367282, "liquidityFee": 10.25769832222037} | 0 | 1655474066495 | 310.25769832222045 | ryfuzzi | 1655504212395 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwq-qHwYFlByvoZNG1HjxIiQJgsNl589fcvTPYL=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655303657289 | 1655504211092 | 0.20588799777285888 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9jp2jOaYBgMkgfK4uzrF | who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the | 193.61317885135182 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party? | 2209075140000 | AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1654699589637 | Handdara | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5961693752422499, "platformFee": 0.39498082380828364, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 620.0000000000002 | MichaelBennett | 1720024256004 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "da0a08013db4", "prob": 0.26611397449597707, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.18824646558486, "userId": "AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.88596955163698, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9jp2jOaYBgMkgfK4uzrF", "createdTime": 1654699589718, "probChanges": {"day": -5.55111512312... | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474274}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659558049715}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-par... | ["politics-default", "uk-politics", "labour-party-uk"] | 1720024252710 | False | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24964151155551376 | s9ECEcfUxn0bPlp5O6nl | {"NO": 72.622841844005, "YES": 274.83684665150355} | 0 | will-team-cherry-set-a-release-date-086349a57afa | 193 | Will Team Cherry set a release date/release window for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of June? | 1656647940000 | 2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8818451021802143 | True | play | NO | public | 1654701196733 | Forrest | Since @AngolaMaldives hasn't made another one for this month:
This market resolves to YES if Team Cherry either set a release date, or officially forecast a release window (eg. 'Q3 2022') for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of June. If they release it without prior announcement in June it also resolves to YES, sinc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.211795368353475, "platformFee": 0.1035631331161199, "liquidityFee": 0.6213787986967193} | 0 | 1656679035810 | 100.62137879869672 | Forrest | 1656628900040 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1656628899929 | 1655520317920 | 0.080807685983385 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4955379993909799 | UCol8g2dCN1wxrr2jZha | {"NO": 50.29435914645558, "YES": 214.7279142229852} | 0 | will-wales-beat-netherlands-in-toni | 115 | Will Wales beat Netherlands in tonight's UEFA Nations League game? | 1654713900000 | jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9670298558303485 | True | play | NO | public | 1654703214820 | John Roxton | Wales hopes to brush off their World Cup hangover when they host an in-form Netherlands in the Nations League this evening. Will resolve YES if Wales win and NO in all other cases.
Close date updated to 2022-06-08 7:45 pm
Jun 8, 10:22pm: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61655223 Wales 1 Netherlands 2 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6325146620888142, "platformFee": 0.2720857770148024, "liquidityFee": 1.6325146620888142} | 0 | 1654723398245 | 101.63251466208881 | JohnRoxton | 1654703583341 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403193}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816363}] | ["sports-default", "uefa"] | 0.5 | 1654703581992 | 0.1870448885044484 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5358107688091819 | VATU3yFyzuGIs0sRmghx | {"NO": 1767.3936430677556, "YES": 9.37950864306249} | 0.9954234491768776 | resolves-yes-1-chance-na-99-chance | 1980.6832998080808 | Resolves YES 1% chance, N/A 99% chance | 1655362740000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.2026659589304085 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654704235256 | Jack | We'll generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < 0.01, N/A otherwise.
(If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655434757674 | 104.51603354665723 | jack | 1655434701358 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1667266434713}] | ["randomization"] | 0.5 | 1655352125381 | 1655434698843 | 0.9954234491768775 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | AmbeFHxAVRHQMFsSMeYC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | test-cfedf8a5184d | 0 | test | 1654704946776 | mwaVAaKkabODsH8g5VrtbshsXz03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654704938621 | Boa WishBone | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654704946776 | 100 | BoaWishBone | 1654705662679 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw5gyLgnLrKX8FzRDAvwB82pNBGCgQIuZ2aJ89R=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654705660600 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8500772241213399 | MEYlDMVjOI8wQAUpsy00 | {"NO": 986.1433965785167, "YES": 99.50272459666603} | 1 | i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-af | 1674.1412363400452 | I will resolve this question YES after closing. | 1654736400000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.753629069981001 | True | play | YES | public | 1654706055770 | Matt P | This question resolves to YES shortly after closing. Get dat #freemoney | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4865273503106224, "platformFee": 0.581087891718437, "liquidityFee": 3.4865273503106224} | 0 | 1654738013444 | 283.3218664447724 | MattP | 1654735391617 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.1 | 1654735391430 | 1654732118541 | 0.9825158825276232 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06973209528940233 | UsoAI6wIH5FI1Sdfv4Io | {"NO": 125.43025369920193, "YES": 2.12627593282922} | 1 | for-what-portion-of-my-waking-hours | 52 | For what portion of my waking hours should I dress femme this month? | 1656016420488 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.968806640346301 | True | play | YES | public | 1654706129238 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | I will resolve to YES at the end of the month. I will try to roughly match the percentage given, or exceed it. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2943180913333784, "platformFee": 0.04905301522222973, "liquidityFee": 0.2943180913333784} | 0 | 1656016420488 | 100.29431809133338 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1655101170744 | 0 | 3 | 0 | [{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549780}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492228}] | ["trans-questions", "olivia"] | 0.05 | 1655101169235 | 1654707218354 | 0.8155622689741456 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05000000000000001 | glVYfUVkZB5UuF4R6Aw7 | {"NO": 97.89428834787284, "YES": 149.83396831389726} | 0 | short-fuse-will-the-conservatives-w-23a8cd2d3c54 | 50 | (Short fuse) Will the Conservatives win the Wakefield by-election? | 1655938740000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.20156105073292 | True | play | NO | public | 1654706222631 | Jonathan Nankivell | This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wakefield_by-election | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1660316861027445, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1656061174104 | 100 | JonathanNankivell | 1655654860284 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499263}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.05 | 1655654859055 | 0.033243783415870816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h7OLexhoGhtmO4tFXkts | test-dpm-multi | 100 | Test DPM Multi | 1654707458107 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654707420796 | Milli | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654707458107 | 260 | Milli | 1654707441585 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a7dce79e96f7", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.018511664883786, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 75.05553499465135, "textFts": "", "contractId": "h7OLexhoGhtmO4tFXkts", "createdTime": 1654707420884, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 1654707440093 | {"23afecf44cb3": 50, "fe557e6aea9c": 50} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5006454461098189 | oqsqWksk4GVuSBwJ2Fpx | {"NO": 69.77001817866986, "YES": 147.23884983940653} | 0.15 | will-manifold-set-right-the-chartsb | 100 | Will Manifold set right the charts/bets tab on the yes/no markets by the end of the month? | 1656647940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8141251667211247 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654709248618 | Enopoletus Harding | See here:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/755126754581938217/984146376092942436/Screenshot_300.png
Will resolve to % depending on how much of my request here is implemented. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.264988284211734, "platformFee": 0.12114890491970241, "liquidityFee": 0.7268934295182143} | 0 | 1657044200084 | 101.46484674326054 | EnopoletusHarding | 1657044189176 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656296405302 | 1657044187471 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.061520966819432046 | 3mRxiXcrb8Axzc3tVzKK | {"NO": 153.2538677647704, "YES": 0.10147868406543026} | 1 | will-boris-johnson-be-the-uk-prime | 972.3105024057912 | Will Boris Johnson be the UK Prime Minister on Aug 31? | 1662004740000 | jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.044210539677927 | True | play | YES | public | 1654713777109 | Joel Becker | Any point on Aug 31, according to official sources. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.850769340601646, "platformFee": 0.0549043050162115, "liquidityFee": 0.329425830097269} | 0 | 1667932510619 | 100.32942583009728 | JoelBecker | 1666458199965 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468879}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.05 | 1661967120798 | 1666458198132 | 0.9900000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26122136345447694 | 6H3BYrhDUqD9rAUgZtIW | {"NO": 895.5191116638126, "YES": 1227.9516400656262} | 0.20500046024505214 | is-the-higgs-composite | 823.2925219178487 | Is the Higgs composite? | 2524719540000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 7.69547959311662e-16 | 9.640285115407513 | False | basic | public | 1654716178344 | Scott Lawrence | This question resolves YES if any composite Higgs model is experimentally confirmed by the close date. It will also resolve to YES if there is overwhelming experimental evidence that the Higgs is composite, even if the nature of the constituents is not firmly established. It resolves NO if consensus at close date (acco... | BINARY | {"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.20502222062586, "platformFee": 0.27649045736212396, "liquidityFee": 1.2401508949984623} | 0 | 1000 | ScottLawrence | 1713856983130 | 0.1 | 23 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1658529389213}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522982}, {"name": "Particle Physics", "slug": "particle-physics", "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8... | ["physics", "science-default", "particle-physics"] | 0.09989430499112154 | 0.5 | 1713856979480 | 1654858641790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2495043362779958 | gI8ND8XjlhG0zyzAGAUV | {"NO": 79.65218068692366, "YES": 207.34180369992242} | 0 | will-there-be-a-youtube-rewind-2022 | 108.00000000000006 | Will there be a youtube rewind 2022? | 1672531200000 | oo35Ce7Y10RjKbpNf6VlZqdZNah1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.78431868157738 | True | play | NO | public | 1654716540597 | Nils | This question resolves to "YES" if youtube uploads a youtube rewind for the year 2022. They have not done so for 2020 and 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube_Rewind | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.126988083720386, "platformFee": 0.09375835672854724, "liquidityFee": 0.5625501403712834} | 0 | 1672972090547 | 100.56255014037129 | Nils | 1667245332712 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyNa3-FVU-2w0nedM7jRSrCZ53mqwAZD5zwZudQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.25 | 1667245332552 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
z0oK80QjuhsMxs5ZiKyS | more-multi-testing | 100 | More Multi testing | 1654718000002 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654717930131 | Milli | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654718000002 | 260 | Milli | 1654717958871 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "de2627fff806", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.018511664883786, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 75.05553499465135, "textFts": "", "contractId": "z0oK80QjuhsMxs5ZiKyS", "createdTime": 1654717930342, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 1654717957501 | {"3dfa6a1247b6": 93, "eaff8c99cecb": 7} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24991768190886993 | tuCUDjS2C0HWErhUnm99 | {"NO": 57.53885492154663, "YES": 536.3841962824674} | 0 | stranger-things-s4-rot13-jvyy-gurlb | 439 | [Stranger Things S4] rot13: Jvyy Gurlbhatre olref oebgure qvr? | 1656712740000 | hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.258084383166578 | True | play | NO | public | 1654718275784 | Warty | this market resolves Yes if Will Byers dies in Stranger Things season 4 volume 2
anti-spoiler padding
--------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------
secret
ok I can't edit it and I wanted to add padding so the description doesn't ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.83319286885097, "platformFee": 0.043477830263676576, "liquidityFee": 0.26086698158205945} | 0 | 1656930127092 | 100.26086698158207 | warty | 1656706849838 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548254}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1656706849693 | 0.03450816781977174 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07225603769880182 | 5FdHrJ0EPIpU64fdebaM | {"NO": 600, "YES": 3.268496584496461e-13} | 1 | will-this-market-resolve-yes-84445668970e | 500 | Will this market resolve yes? | 1654718579743 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.651849538631096 | True | play | YES | public | 1654718540603 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0658141036401503e-13, "platformFee": 1.7763568394002505e-14, "liquidityFee": 1.0658141036401503e-13} | 0 | 1654718579743 | 100.00000000000011 | IsaacKing | 1654718566478 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654718566274 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5003356108069458 | wdG9k4uQ7bzyLKFFtWdr | {"NO": 118.87629714239426, "YES": 86.01450703077948} | 1 | would-it-work-and-be-useful-to-have | 21 | Would it work (and be useful) to have users add a #ResolveCheck tag to closed markets to get feedback? | 1655351940000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7636811874781326 | True | play | YES | public | 1654719187422 | Duncn | We could set up a norm under which any market with questionable or uncertain resolution criteria could be tagged and have a set of (unmonitored and unvetted) volunteer judges comment on what they think the resolution should be. This would obviously have to be a voluntary action taken by the market creator.
We have mo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5540904039958037, "platformFee": 0.09234840066596728, "liquidityFee": 0.5540904039958037} | 0 | 1655414899810 | 100.5540904039958 | Duncn | 1655343050928 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1655152707625 | 1655343049598 | 0.5805203660018255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5010529635195555 | OzSCV8aCYg8wxbeBTsdz | {"NO": 138.8551177194235, "YES": 74.64082105256009} | 0 | will-northern-ireland-beat-kosovo-i | 39 | Will Northern Ireland beat Kosovo in tomorrow's Nations League game? | 1654800300000 | jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7862479021685775 | True | play | NO | public | 1654720471095 | John Roxton | Northern Ireland boss Ian Baraclough is confident that he is still the best man to take the team forward after a disappointing start to their Nations League campaign.
This will resolve YES if Northern Ireland beat Kosovo in the Nations League game on 9th June.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61669980
Jun 8, 9:34p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8692936834587759, "platformFee": 0.14488228057646269, "liquidityFee": 0.8692936834587759} | 0 | 1654807333204 | 100.86929368345878 | JohnRoxton | 1654759868023 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401395}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1654759866640 | 0.6513447305465762 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13562942187575758 | 3IDaVqzClJaIaCbWSjbj | {"NO": 253.55433670307855, "YES": 3986.614392338389} | 0 | will-boris-johnson-still-be-prime-m | 7030.628003976276 | Will Boris Johnson still be Prime Minister of the UK on 31 December 2022? | 1672531140000 | S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4798928606308404 | True | play | NO | public | 1654722482610 | jon jordan | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.186370032291546, "platformFee": 0.9716382253189138, "liquidityFee": 5.8298293519134825} | 0 | 1672608574203 | 445.8298293519135 | jonjordanc3f0 | 1672419111467 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468500}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672419111272 | 1666562880408 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5547944701655152 | 1dRxJBddHqOTxZsIYo1Y | {"NO": 291.5491617228725, "YES": 50.385773072107476} | 1 | will-my-favorite-blog-have-a-new-bl | 294.9497504536547 | Will my favorite blog have a new blog post that I can read by June 10th? | 1654919940000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.987710218715364 | True | play | YES | public | 1654722935561 | Andrew G | This question resolves to "YES" if my favorite blog has a new blog post that I can read by 11:59pm on June 10th. A good-faith draft also counts.
This question resolves to "NO" if there is no blog post or draft that I can read by that time. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.0473062874238375, "platformFee": 0.8412177145706397, "liquidityFee": 5.0473062874238375} | 0 | 1654920039734 | 105.04730628742384 | AndrewG | 1654918760441 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.55 | 1654918760164 | 1654897576002 | 0.8782072162418642 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4945981852370961 | UNP38h0NUB1kj1z0pAIe | {"NO": 45.840895096060535, "YES": 240.65694971298907} | 0 | planecrashrot13-jvyy-zrevgkryy-tb-g | 141 | [Planecrash][rot13] Jvyy zrevgkryy tb gb bfvevba? | 1655336884378 | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.027538016093587 | True | play | NO | public | 1654723995501 | Multicore | Will Meritxell go to Osirion?
Must happen by the end of the current thread "crisis of faith" to count. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0583017220652775, "platformFee": 0.34305028701087964, "liquidityFee": 2.0583017220652775} | 0 | 1655336884378 | 102.05830172206528 | Multicore | 1655231663058 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392721}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544756}] | ["glowfic", "culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1655231662891 | 0.15712142753455072 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EscqwNLfERB6e1EvnN2N | which-team-will-win-the-2022-nation | 210412.61959033518 | Which team will win the 2022 National Science Bowl high school finals? | 1657549686505 | w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.616541501248833 | True | basic | 696bf046f065 | public | 1654724118877 | Derik K | I will choose the team reported as the winner of the 2022 high school NSB finals by the official NSB Twitter account https://twitter.com/DOE_SC_NSB and website https://science.osti.gov/wdts/nsb/.
Jul 10, 7:53pm: Double elimination brackets are live here: https://science.osti.gov/-/media/wdts/nsb/images/2022-Finals/Sco... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 780.5714478927703, "platformFee": 195.14286197319257, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657549686505 | 1880.0000000000005 | derikk | 1657549634231 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjMMD3hpowUw0WGPs_qJTqQyB5X_6EEY691J3ABqA=s96-c | 30 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "96ca4dc652f5", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.636745483184207e-05, "userId": "w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7635981808635888, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EscqwNLfERB6e1EvnN2N", "createdTime": 1654724118954, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399396}, {"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457585}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTim... | ["science-bowl", "science-default", "sports-default"] | 1657549632904 | 1657518134248 | {"696bf046f065": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4997342164232858 | zNbYWuLSPorXEHEX37Ml | {"NO": 93.3940679834066, "YES": 109.50890473494078} | 1 | will-the-jackhammering-at-my-neighb | 20 | Will the jackhammering at my neighbors' be finished before tomorrow? | 1654844340000 | hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7534098251696895 | True | play | YES | public | 1654729301791 | Alicorn | Resolves NO if I hear any jackhammering in that general area tomorrow.
Jun 10, 10:50am: goddammit I resolved this and an hour later the jackhammer started up again. What kind of jackhammering takes specifically Thursday off? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.563364643897535, "platformFee": 0.09389410731625583, "liquidityFee": 0.563364643897535} | 0 | 1654880161149 | 100.56336464389753 | Alicorn | 1654820527338 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1654820527055 | 0.4600252075357425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5082835050536008 | 0Ld8gOcVAkLmZDirizqX | {"NO": 12.491270132416789, "YES": 869.0916718976179} | 0 | will-i-get-lasik-by-the-end-of-the | 1282.0139687568922 | Will I get LASIK by the end of the year. | 1672559940000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.54554520203583 | True | play | NO | public | 1654730394699 | SneakySly | My vision is pretty bad, and I have dealt with glasses for a long time now. As of yesterday I am thinking about LASIK. I have done very little research so I am certainly up for the market's advice! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.23425446732397, "platformFee": 0.590488347442813, "liquidityFee": 3.542930084656878} | 0 | 1672607432854 | 104.54293008465686 | SneakySly | 1667246252756 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.5 | 1667246252194 | 1658651675946 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | C01KZbsoWkJL7jViDPVO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-this-question-post | 0 | Will this question post? | 1654731359981 | 62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.332169878499657 | True | play | YES | public | 1654731193742 | Marshall Polaris | Required | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654731359981 | 100 | mqp | 1654731193742 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888108}] | ["marshalls-group-for-testing"] | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dDy7X7gMff5cYuhscU2F | how-big-will-the-july-rate-hike-fro | 127 | How big will the July rate hike from the RBA be? | 1656626340000 | l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.831008897274297 | True | play | 6d0d0019e9f0 | public | 1654733662341 | Christopher Chubb | When the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on July 5, by how many basis points will they adjust the Cash Rate Target? | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.28, "platformFee": 1.57, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1657023849744 | 320 | ChristopherChubb | 1656255752327 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzbts9F6ndUlv-5QEunxgzDUJsssR2C8J5AK-fy=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e317961375e3", "prob": 0.23337767509160073, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.451814243152405, "userId": "l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50.75766460733133, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dDy7X7gMff5cYuhscU2F", "createdTime": 1654733662407, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572437}] | ["economics-default"] | 1656255750991 | {"6d0d0019e9f0": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19998044496619247 | 7wLk8jZWBpTHPxQztJJH | {"NO": 53.53099285514611, "YES": 1231.514078482977} | 0 | will-there-be-a-parliamentary-elect | 760.9446886632494 | Will there be a parliamentary election in New Zealand in 2022? | 1672441199000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.990660528715448 | True | play | NO | public | 1654733908130 | N.C. Young | The next election is likely to be in 2023, but snap elections exist. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0971008475653123, "platformFee": 0.01816167446777358, "liquidityFee": 0.10897004680664146} | 0 | 1672609783882 | 100.10897004680665 | NcyRocks | 1667245204944 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472635}, {"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1658529439307}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "g... | ["nz-politics", "politics-default", "new-zealand"] | 0.2 | 1667245204799 | 1665741120456 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2 | cmgOo2rEaED8AEdUnzuV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2 | will-there-be-a-parliamentary-elect-d208dd954483 | 0 | Will there be a parliamentary election in New Zealand in 2022? | 1654734043745 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.332169878499657 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654733909797 | N.C. Young | The next election is likely to be in 2023, but snap elections exist. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654734043745 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1654734145912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | True | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496076}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533859}] | ["politics-default", "new-zealand"] | 0.2 | 1654734143768 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08804942248512833 | txv1dwpOFhQpPHZZiqLP | {"NO": 205.50381032369262, "YES": 0.010193466515455163} | 1 | will-the-website-chickenphotocom-ha | 350.1406345703722 | Will the website chickenphoto.com have a photo of a chicken on it on June 25th? | 1656173155413 | OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.798223999301642 | True | play | YES | public | 1654735006361 | Amyg Dala | This question resolves to "YES" if the website chickenphoto.com has a photo of a chicken on the main page at noon Eastern time on June 25th.
This question resolves to "NO" if there is no photo of a chicken there at that time.
Jun 9, 12:36am: The domain is not currently registered, so the chances are pretty significant... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.719922785841887, "platformFee": 0.14379992147443138, "liquidityFee": 0.8627995288465884} | 0 | 1656173155413 | 100.8627995288466 | AmygDala | 1656173028955 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.05 | 1656173027572 | 1656076899139 | 0.9994865197382247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4470201961444942 | 8YEXl437RiFHM9j17YGw | {"NO": 224.38383919507453, "YES": 32.00971316491654} | 0 | will-there-be-27-fda-approved-appro | 143.91150613416718 | Will there be >27 FDA approved Approved Cellular and Gene Therapy Products by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.386686872075141 | True | play | NO | public | 1654746048080 | Research.Bet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolved to \"Yes\" if the FDA approves 5 more cellular or gene therapy products in this calendar year (current count is 23). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: https://www... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3424375919761448, "platformFee": 0.057072931996024145, "liquidityFee": 0.3424375919761448} | 0 | 1672871718895 | 120.34243759197615 | ResearchBet | 1672942170464 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523682}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537530}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 169... | ["researchbet", "science-default", "biotech"] | 0.25 | 1672548164572 | 1672942166316 | False | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SRNhxwSENFdxqxZ6vuDB | which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-648f3fcc1f2e | 861732.3160246261 | Which team will win the NBA Finals 2023? | 1686639912257 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615306166023434 | True | basic | 8dc56640b002 | public | 1654757808213 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved according to https://www.espn.com/nba/ or a similar main sports website. If for some reason there are no 2022 NBA Finals, this is resolved to PROB at the end of 2022. (This also includes if a champion is declared without any NBA Finals bei... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06394302580846216, "platformFee": 0.01598575645211554, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686639912257 | 9419.999999999996 | howtodowtle | 1710222958374 | 0 | 3 | 155 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6639538187de", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004604518090654409, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.29765452723655, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SRNhxwSENFdxqxZ6vuDB", "createdTime": 1654757808294, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0},... | 48 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}] | ["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"] | 0.17209514310230323 | 1686639889657 | 1684754827690 | {"8dc56640b002": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XcvQPKmHTgTZkqbW1g9F | how-should-i-determine-what-goes-on | 83 | How should I determine what goes on chickenphoto.com? | 1655208694075 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.8560879264555865 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654772883741 | wasabipesto | Last night I bought chickenphoto.com for no reason. Now I'm trying to decide what to put on it. Let me know what you think.
Jun 14, 8:11am: The verdict is thus: on 6/24 I will roll a d6. If it's a 1-2, I will post chic ken. If it's 3-5, I will post a chicken. If it's a 6, velociraptor time. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.2, "platformFee": 1.3, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1655208694075 | 380 | wasabipesto | 1654824286743 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a5c9aabf68f3", "prob": 0.2986055122577563, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.380123594012215, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 54.91757230997529, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XcvQPKmHTgTZkqbW1g9F", "createdTime": 1654772883824, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1654824285152 | 1654784468478 | {"87d666ec88d4": 50.12960395442763, "bcd7b72d0145": 49.87039604557238} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | nlUVwIyle1lIX0h13u6J | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-704a14450e92 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654788644475 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654788600734 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654788644475 | 100.01704414600928 | unit_24601 | 1654788607026 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654788605856 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | 18tXzljAmxIVhWbeNAmY | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-a2bc9083c719 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654788666710 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654788657764 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654788666710 | 100.01704414600928 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1654788663059 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654788662877 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | ac2eZKsJZq4rzWDX5BVJ | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-e0bdce5d6e23 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654788688940 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654788679669 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654788688940 | 100.01704414600928 | SayJarva | 1654788685454 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654788684119 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24996953161005186 | pB1NUIhjgxUBkMLPPLvO | {"NO": 597.1131891848217, "YES": 0.47443487058689016} | 1 | will-timnit-gebru-post-no-tweets-ov | 510 | Will Timnit Gebru post no tweets over a 24-hour period in June 2022? | 1656643408533 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.394764247255191 | True | play | YES | public | 1654788886339 | Peter Berggren | This question resolves YES if there is a 24-hour period in which Timnit Gebru posts no tweets that occurs wholly within the month of June 2022, as determined by Twitter's timestamp utility on https://twitter.com/timnitGebru. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.25498534696943587, "platformFee": 0.02269362230946511, "liquidityFee": 0.13616173385679065} | 0 | 1656643408533 | 100.1361617338568 | PeterBerggren | 1656643406079 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454312}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1656643404854 | 1656643377906 | 0.22759367538924954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12709029480798223 | DdFERGabmiBRKBrPjSUE | {"NO": 599.9999992557823, "YES": 1.8853515880046245e-05} | 1 | will-this-question-resolve | 500 | Will this question resolve? | 1654790799863 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.682852510755328 | True | play | YES | public | 1654790787477 | Isaac King | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.465305691869759e-06, "platformFee": 7.442176153116266e-07, "liquidityFee": 4.465305691869759e-06} | 0 | 1654790799863 | 100.0000044653057 | IsaacKing | 1654790795397 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1654790794092 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5041240640632046 | ONH9v3JdpYCq88gWxLFU | {"NO": 27.4512173569788, "YES": 426.77134735399574} | 0 | will-we-be-able-to-people-in-the-co | 516.4258030463529 | Will we be able to @ people in the comments section by the end of the month? | 1656647940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4700644761407173 | True | play | NO | public | 1654791018708 | Enopoletus Harding | I.e., with a list that pops up when we start typing @username. As on Twitter/Discord. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.152418377284034, "platformFee": 0.7893533363994256, "liquidityFee": 4.736120018396554} | 0 | 1657044233749 | 104.73612001839656 | EnopoletusHarding | 1656642090354 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1656642089021 | 1654804417402 | 0.06137916025991104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5299746372180298 | mqRTD6b7PjFhxWgnpU7Q | {"NO": 491.8339452264465, "YES": 23.044951000481888} | 1 | ill-resolve-this-question-yes-after | 410.05053034778143 | I'll resolve this question YES after I'm done experimenting with the liquidity injection/withdrawal system. | 1654792278249 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.913090306995194 | True | play | YES | public | 1654791688273 | Matt P | Title says it all. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.535163936304056, "platformFee": 0.42252732271734267, "liquidityFee": 2.535163936304056} | 0 | 1654792278249 | 152.84216683324925 | MattP | 1654792167158 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1654792165929 | 0.50542241248707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500121272864049 | Sliqf6tg3Md61zo5yLiZ | {"NO": 109.95475113122171, "YES": 91.94083588770496} | 0.9 | test-43a2b479821c | 10 | test | 1654792420705 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.765773451990329 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654792400911 | Ian Philips | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324} | 0 | 1654792420705 | 100.27149321266968 | ian | 1654792407444 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1654792406057 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0700778679412962 | WTP9zmCEKIkHLZImAK9E | {"NO": 299.99999998910175, "YES": 2.168186679085693e-07} | 1 | can-i-create-a-market-through-the-a | 200 | Can I create a market through the API? | 1654795578535 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.283548418580365 | True | play | YES | public | 1654795555191 | Scott Lawrence | Resolves YES if the script used to create this market actually works. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.538976560221954e-08, "platformFee": 1.089829426703659e-08, "liquidityFee": 6.538976560221954e-08} | 0 | 1654795578535 | 100.00000006538977 | ScottLawrence | 1654795567220 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654795567031 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DQD8m4Jc99LNwJ8E8uEs | test-b37d85be7481 | 20 | test | 1654796895789 | mwaVAaKkabODsH8g5VrtbshsXz03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.962206060634121 | True | play | MKT | public | 1654796875200 | Boa WishBone | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654796895789 | 260 | BoaWishBone | 1654796887440 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw5gyLgnLrKX8FzRDAvwB82pNBGCgQIuZ2aJ89R=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4c3e2730332a", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.8446708789263, "userId": "mwaVAaKkabODsH8g5VrtbshsXz03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.13165518672758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DQD8m4Jc99LNwJ8E8uEs", "createdTime": 1654796875285, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 1654796885971 | {"38cad4e6a74b": 47.72727272727273, "d4524b414d05": 52.27272727272727} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | wDA4GBoXsZth1SHUuHFh | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-49e9598a2997 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654799578392 | XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654799568225 | Hugh Mann | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654799578392 | 100.01704414600928 | unit_24601 | 1654799575686 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654799574251 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | Vv0Mm4VgJC8AIo8SejOs | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-06f680cdf2cd | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654799604408 | sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654799591034 | Say Jarva | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654799604408 | 100.01704414600928 | SayJarva | 1654799599869 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654799598533 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06279990846514177 | PK0V4PFs8sSzHaHYicWK | {"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669} | 1 | will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-a93e05852611 | 50 | Will I resolve this question "YES?" | 1654799631184 | 2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.069972873094368 | True | play | YES | public | 1654799622103 | Law of Good Hearts | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284} | 0 | 1654799631184 | 100.01704414600928 | PeterBerggrenf455 | 1654799626739 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 1654799626564 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vxfshN9n0YAW0yz5Wj8l | which-candidate-will-win-the-2022-m | 0 | Which candidate will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial primary? | 1654801967369 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1654801881404 | Andrew G | I will choose the answer according to the official results, or if it is not particularly close, when a majority of major networks covering the race have called it. | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1654801967369 | 220 | AndrewG | 1654801882765 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4e11c6340e84", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vxfshN9n0YAW0yz5Wj8l", "createdTime": 1654801881467, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":... | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511256}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "mePh8oR7NzDVkqJZk8c7", "createdTime": 1678667148616}] | ["politics-default", "massachusetts"] | 1654801881404 | True |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.