CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

51sBmiNJiiFdLQS2FbXa

which-candidate-will-win-the-2022-m-a536d89f4a93

1470.3544961996101

Which candidate will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial Democratic primary?

1662531929542

OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.646468186567185

True

play

7abb75b80cb9

public

1654802353777

Amyg Dala

If the election is close, I will resolve according to the official results; otherwise, I will resolve when a majority of major networks covering the race have called it.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662531929542

460

AmygDala

1662531803548

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "20a53a9553ef", "prob": 0.004058792407440259, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.027638033034429438, "userId": "OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.781784637552411, "textFts": "", "contractId": "51sBmiNJiiFdLQS2FbXa", "createdTime": 1654802353855, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

8

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529429997}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469700}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2"...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "massachusetts"]

1662531802015

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{"7abb75b80cb9": 100}

True

hUEDQqMXjf8Bo1pGwoBM

how-many-times-will-i-step-inside-a

17563.576268120843

How many times will I step inside a gym whilst visiting the US?

1655783940000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.618447659500257

True

play

883c736e0afe

public

1654802805263

Joel Becker

I will be in the US from June 10th until probably June 18th, possibly a couple of days later. The number of times I have attended the gym on weeks starting on the Mondays of April 18th through June 6th: 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4, 3, 0 (although I expect to go today, June 9th, to make it at least 1). When I travel to somewhere...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 182.18905331316247, "platformFee": 45.54726332829062, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655784040348

720.0000000000002

JoelBecker

1655783197401

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

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1655783196173

1655686878163

{"883c736e0afe": 100}

True

0.5028088791886348

nSvCXKYnZwZ8K8JKHyuQ

{"NO": 174.78894054286823, "YES": 60.50292952751089}

0

will-france-beat-austria-in-fridays

75

Will France beat Austria in Friday's Nation League game?

1654886700000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.8620577672316667

True

play

NO

public

1654804176346

John Roxton

This market resolves YES if France beats Austria in the Nations League game on Friday 10th June, and NO in all other cases. Jun 10, 10:40pm: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61766082 France 1 Austria 1

BINARY

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JohnRoxton

1654808050368

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529407602}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

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Zali6OyGN5cGU43WsLtc

{"NO": 149.99715930899848, "YES": 0.0794091178397669}

1

free-daily-manifold-will-resolve-ye

50

Free daily Manifold. Will resolve YES.

1654806361949

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

8.069972873094368

True

play

YES

public

1654805669989

SneakySly

Will resolve YES.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0.017044146009276284, "platformFee": 0.0028406910015460474, "liquidityFee": 0.017044146009276284}

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100.01704414600928

SneakySly

1654805682264

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

1

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0.05

1654805681029

0.9921613199102759

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{"NO": 189.6542155840092, "YES": 246.55612722390205}

0.5

how-much-of-my-compensation-will-i

1468.2018045067762

How much of my compensation will I take in Manifold Markets equity?

1655240610702

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-1

0

1.8121225684960445

True

play

MKT

public

1654806051086

David Chee

I will resolve the market to the percentage that matches how much equity I take. After the successful completion of my work trial I have received an official offer from Manifold. I can take up to $40k of my salary in the form of equity. For example I could take 0 equity and have a $120k salary, or I could max out on...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 26.100179074211113, "platformFee": 4.350029845701852, "liquidityFee": 26.100179074211113}

0

1655240610702

250.88686144206028

SirSalty

1655254235836

0

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0

0.65

1655204740472

1655254235025

0.5

0.10000438005136256

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{"NO": 110.22883395107935, "YES": 42.072732691516435}

0

stranger-things-s4-rot13-qrngu-bs-w

11

[Stranger Things S4] rot13: qrngu bs wbanguna

1656626400000

hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2

cpmm-1

0

7.808259645921742

True

play

NO

public

1654806612396

Warty

This market resolves Yes if in Jonathan Byers dies in Stranger Things season 4 volume 2

BINARY

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1656930235220

100.05344089004991

warty

1656618438895

0

https://firebasestorage.…fed-6ca5ba3a485c

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1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543953}]

["culture-default"]

0.1

1656618438721

0.22547908675433073

Nl2ZXhFcRcNb7CWBETz3

how-many-more-league-of-legends-cha

127

How many more League of Legends Champions will be released until the end of the year (2022)?

1657407540000

TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.813791211636743

True

play

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public

1654806621363

Danny Kim

The count will start from after Renata Glasc.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1681355120073

340

DannyKim

1681355090662

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwF6WBu3EFkk8aLyOnuxCRnOkUjbRCTwWmoMZRSVg=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bbcc1e01ad75", "prob": 0.19406547769217333, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.332162071274556, "userId": "TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 55.36713586579611, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Nl2ZXhFcRcNb7CWBETz3", "createdTime": 1654806621452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

4

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893886}]

["please-resolve"]

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True

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{"NO": 318.80404613416135, "YES": 33.951755593043444}

1

test-73119631c9a5

219

Test

1654808031270

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

0

3.326249979786142

True

play

YES

public

1654807985413

Mr Stone

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.175723195032256, "platformFee": 0.19595386583870933, "liquidityFee": 1.175723195032256}

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101.17572319503226

stone

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0

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0.5

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{"NO": 542.7286413861725, "YES": 379.1520566024568}

0

will-the-personal-savings-rate-for

140

Will the Personal Savings Rate for May 2022 be lower than Apr 2022 (4.4%)?

1655704740000

DjBQoN2ucjYGSVFhK7c1NLuHb7l2

cpmm-1

0

0.8887680164104789

True

play

NO

public

1654808111539

Paul

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT hit the lowest level since 2008 in April 2022. Will it get even lower?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.254915267645297, "platformFee": 0.4415914778658356, "liquidityFee": 2.6495488671950134}

0

1656603496948

435.649548867195

PaulGu

1655573611735

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFZAruVSdke_r-nIkdR7XbXr3R7mI2zQO-xb0soSU=s96-c

9

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572832}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 269.82805035850924, "YES": 44.79577518957451}

1

will-the-mars-ingenuity-helicopter

695.6828017643534

Will the Mars Ingenuity helicopter wake up with flight capabilities after the Martian winter?

1665201001913

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.43967184917735

True

play

YES

public

1654808567658

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Close date is at the end of November to account for any margin between the end of Martian winter and the waking up of the helicopter. Will resolve to YES if the helicopter wakes up and make at least one successful flight, even if capabilities are somewhat degraded. Examples of acceptable deck rotation would be reduce...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 19.463213889203768, "platformFee": 0.7484640437162184, "liquidityFee": 4.4907842622973115}

0

1665201001913

104.49078426229731

LivInTheLookingGlass

1665200973398

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

19

0

20

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462226}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530732}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX...

["science-default", "space", "olivia"]

0.5

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0.8599999999999999

0.5744942686221839

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{"NO": 299.6559503748396, "YES": 299.6559503748396}

0

will-the-wibor3m-rate-be-raised-abo

247.29428765009493

Will the WIBOR3M rate be raised above 7.5% before September 2022?

1660514400000

W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2

cpmm-1

0

1.1780255962743558

True

play

NO

public

1654816735290

Franek Żak

Background: The WIBOR3M (Warsaw Interbank Offered Rate) is the reference rate for a 3-month inter-bank loan. It is also commonly used as the rate for mortgages in Poland. In recent months, as inflation has been accelerating in poland, the central bank has started to raise it's interest rates, which has led to the WIBO...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 7.603561542222545, "platformFee": 0.11075991343142232, "liquidityFee": 0.664559480588534}

0

1663793303553

300.66455948058854

FranekZak

1657741070030

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c

1

0

1

2

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569249}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

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0.6303894072287063

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{"NO": 1034.0789374267551, "YES": 975.808159730014}

0.6437982507808039

will-diarrheal-diseases-be-among-th

128.7091609443072

Will diarrheal diseases be among the top 5 causes of death in children under five years old in 2025?

1767243540000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

9.633428200086811

False

basic

public

1654819080188

GeorgeVii

Diarrheal disease is one of the faster falling causes of death under in children under 5. Will it still be a top 5 causes of death when the estimates on the global burden of disease for 2025 are revealed. Resolved using https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/causes-of-death-in-children Close date updated to 2025-12-16 11...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.7390024944335862, "platformFee": 0.39766768287798526, "liquidityFee": 0.8261883329996474}

0

1000

GeorgeVii

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0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

10

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7

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529413303}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132950703}]

["world-default", "medicine"]

0.5

1714905441583

0.5022569411453601

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{"NO": 10.264346088444086, "YES": 1017.4471478416217}

0

will-there-be-a-profit-incentive-fo

1037.5978511212597

Will there be a profit incentive for liquidity providers / market makers by end of June?

1656745140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.915421430984737

True

play

NO

public

1654822029603

Jack

I think this is highly beneficial because it will cause markets to have much more liquidity than they do now, which is good for traders and prediction accuracy. (Liquidity withdrawal is another key piece, which has just been implemented: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-it-be-possible-to-withdraw-liq) Resolves YES i...

BINARY

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0

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0

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101.62984179730613

jack

1656780990400

0

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1

0.5

1656743205412

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0.01007723703476864

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{"NO": 367.89764483968435, "YES": 34.892532799287004}

0

will-i-have-25-or-more-followers-on

673.7816806511779

Will I have 25 or more followers on July 1st?

1656647940000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.2689652321049567

True

play

NO

public

1654823616689

David Glidden

Resolves YES if I have 25 or more Manifold followers as shown on my profile here when I get around to checking it sometime on July 1st, 2022: https://manifold.markets/dglid

BINARY

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0

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1656675350778

104.45865421134044

dglid

1656675382810

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

9

0

1

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{"NO": 114.93301455558432, "YES": 88.42097664630714}

1

will-the-elden-ring-any-speedrun-re

15

Will the Elden Ring Any% speedrun record fall below 24 minutes this week?

1654974508799

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-1

0

2.7651988261908347

True

play

YES

public

1654826388461

Multicore

Resolved based on the leaderboard at https://www.speedrun.com/eldenring at market close. Someone posted a 24:10 run today using a recently discovered glitch. Will another 10 seconds be shaved off?

BINARY

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0

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0

1654974508799

100.40191266649398

Multicore

1654974502654

0

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0

0.5

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{"NO": 62.2252820692511, "YES": 206.04636488403432}

0.22768884332882725

will-my-exchange-with-alcor-result

313.0398909816203

Will my exchange with Alcor result in me looking more foolish than Alcor does?

1655438340000

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

2.7216537006854473

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654827067036

Peter Berggren

This question resolves to YES if, at the discretion of myself and my EA friends, the detailed notes that I take during my discussion with Alcor staff about procedures to reduce medical error end up making me look more foolish than they make the Alcor staff look. The question resolves to NO if the notes either make them...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664295913654

106.2135109769828

PeterBerggren

1664295909767

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

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0

1

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529447598}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 107.96032281191577, "YES": 284.0949249788712}

0.1989882011650533

will-disneys-reedy-creek-improvemen

936.476839943411

Will (Disney's) Reedy Creek Improvement District in Florida actually be dissolved on or by June 1st 2023?

1685595600000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

2.157172730037741

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654828669682

Matt P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if Florida's state government dissolves the Reedy Creek Improvement District on June 1st 2023, as outlined in SB 4C signed by Governor DeSantis. I will also resolve YES if an entity called the Reedy Creek Improvement D...

BINARY

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0

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1686070751464

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MattP

1686076547786

0

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0

2

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[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529432018}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492523}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupI...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "magaland"]

0.5

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{"NO": 12.33704504575212, "YES": 1023.6774388891765}

0

will-creators-be-able-to-resolve-a

1146.507679696897

Will creators be able to resolve a response "NO" early?

1657425540000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

4.643304694474354

True

play

NO

public

1654829528290

Martin Randall

Resolves YES if the creator of a multiple response market (including the free response markets we have today) can resolve an answer as NO or N/A without resolving the entire market. Benefit: allows creators to remove spam, outdated, or otherwise bad answers.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.039835083400789, "platformFee": 0.5017455540916974, "liquidityFee": 3.010473324550185}

0

1657450778739

103.01047332455018

MartinRandall

1657421572001

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

12

0

1

0.5

1657421570821

1657065988564

0.011694792153141217

0.5233159006632999

ZLcrZnXT20q7T7IYurYx

{"NO": 10394.512627363565, "YES": 1.4396728217672248}

1

ifwhen-more-manifold-bounties-are-a

10295

If/when more manifold bounties are awarded, will anyone get a second bounty?

1655243483990

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

5.2417045773251445

True

play

YES

public

1654831746231

Isaac King

Resolves to yes if, the next time any bounties are posted, any of the recipients have also received a previous bounty. If none of them did, resolves to no. If there are no more bounties posted before the end of this year, resolves to N/A. https://docs.manifold.markets/bounties

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.924235818626065, "platformFee": 0.48737263643767736, "liquidityFee": 2.924235818626065}

0

1655243483990

102.92423581862606

IsaacKing

1655243475739

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

3

0

0.5

1655243474345

1655226405041

0.9324166332385944

0.5172721724819311

98fWFwafUPbjtyoFClvn

{"NO": 774.6184728122957, "YES": 15.92311776538855}

1

yes

675

YES

1654836006210

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

4.347095335927263

True

play

YES

public

1654835792786

Undox

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.289163126224609, "platformFee": 0.3815271877041015, "liquidityFee": 2.289163126224609}

0

1654836006210

102.28916312622461

Undox

1654836000219

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

0

0.5

1654835998872

0.5

0.5132713858661067

PZK9SQCnmivGnKB5DC47

{"NO": 2789.9654867143095, "YES": 3.998965308064255}

1

will-resolve-what-a-reasonable-pers

2690

Will resolve what a reasonable person would expect it to.

1654841956064

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.3868358960572245

True

play

YES

public

1654841899783

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2070797141427567, "platformFee": 0.03451328569045945, "liquidityFee": 0.2070797141427567}

0

1654841956064

100.20707971414275

Electricitypipe

1654841947151

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1654841946931

0.5

0.3176918463883913

mHC4vFzSkI74muXnmtJz

{"NO": 83.34571270547276, "YES": 1245.3606572965464}

0

will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-fal

1822.326792340645

Will Joe Biden's approval rating fall below 30% by September 1, 2022?

1662015540000

z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2

cpmm-1

0

2.594775133271625

True

play

NO

public

1654845454962

TANSTAAFL

Resolves YES if it falls below 30% any time before market close, according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating .

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.389472967173855, "platformFee": 0.846487542348212, "liquidityFee": 5.078925254089271}

0

1662043418549

205.07892525408926

TANSTAAFL

1662009789743

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c

29

0

1

29

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503882}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856964}]

["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.5

1662009788414

1660172744351

0.03021948673805539

0.8027410122772803

cucENB4q9UbS2H6BjoFc

{"NO": 1690.899345876851, "YES": 850.9953909826254}

0.8899395446410576

will-at-least-7-of-the-new-effectiv

1164.5876340684233

Will at least 7 of the new Effective Altruism university groups in the Netherlands still be active in June 2024?

1717225200000

3e6Gc3KWBnSQWknDP076Yl9QeHs2

cpmm-1

0

9.789787385866035

False

basic

public

1654855213354

Amarins

Here, active is defined as: - 2 organizers putting in at least 5 hours a week each - at least 15 people finished an intro fellowship in 2023-2024 - 4 people per group attended at least 1 EAG(x) conference in 2024

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.708188386745432, "platformFee": 1.5182655901138107, "liquidityFee": 4.07762855847297}

0

1000

Amarins

1717204515916

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwkWdTSsMsVIFNgwkKr-SrhBhgko97gnkNvMS1s=s96-c

19

0

3

11

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545974}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590225}]

["effective-altruism", "culture-default"]

0.5

1717204512669

1696707870049

0.2998197728262439

MANfmPmc2ZCebHjQGBIq

{"NO": 115.47729803455809, "YES": 2133.835191814736}

0

will-a-sequel-to-super-mario-odysse

3001.4438731274768

Will a sequel to "Super Mario Odyssey" be released before 2024?

1704020340000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

2.14593220303603

True

play

NO

public

1654861110989

N.C. Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246}

0

1704140237558

300.4918032786885

NcyRocks

1704140237888

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

1

15

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…a23-3b34988804e2

8

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459424}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665609703351}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resol...

["nintendo", "gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1026907752288318

0.5

1696913066444

1674252561159

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.5042129206534389

dDPeT1sY2inqro1TGA4B

{"NO": 199.8, "YES": 53.05856129685915}

1

will-i-visit-thailand-by-the-end-of

124.3061166826127

Will I visit Thailand by the end of January?

1672476813436

rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2

cpmm-1

0

2.9416697102234592

True

play

YES

public

1654863495852

Tobias Pace

I am in the early stages of planning an extended vacation for January 2023, and Thailand is at the top of my list of destinations. The main things I can see preventing this trip are the following, in order of most likely probability: 1. COVID restrictions are reimposed leading to the closure of tourist activities in Th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1999999999999997, "platformFee": 0.19999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 1.1999999999999997}

0

1672476813436

101.2

TobiasPace

1667245314424

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c

2

0

3

0.5

1667245314249

1655087368947

0.79

0.48789644374023305

DensTJ8skinr7wRPjqXu

{"NO": 21.269579684307416, "YES": 573.1587769501702}

0

will-jaylen-brown-win-the-2022-nba

528

Will Jaylen Brown win the 2022 NBA Finals MVP?

1655458540932

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

0

3.881878468087121

True

play

NO

public

1654869185664

howtodowtle

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.19421372349078, "platformFee": 0.5160119615135794, "liquidityFee": 3.0960717690814765}

0

1655458540932

103.09607176908146

howtodowtle

1655435349802

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

5

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398728}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655435349638

1654883442669

0.034147934078187434

flovIPQAxMEYdYFbzSU6

how-will-you-use-groups

1062.8926288649452

How will you use groups?

1660197540000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.665605321067335

True

play

MKT

public

1654870963815

Ian Philips

I'm going to be working on making it easier for users to form groups with their friends/co-workers on manifold. I'm aiming to make a manifold group a cross between an SMS/FB messenger group chat and a subreddit with rankings. You can forcibly add any user to your group so that they will see the group page icon on thei...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.844294845402192, "platformFee": 6.211073711350548, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660574696722

699.9999999999999

ian

1660196402561

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "91f5f9079336", "prob": 0.010736154058198832, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0820197534604989, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.557564497648791, "textFts": "", "contractId": "flovIPQAxMEYdYFbzSU6", "createdTime": 1654870964045, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1658529558918}]

["groups-suggestions"]

1660196401240

1656136058386

{"44f45eeb5175": 12.5, "62356bb9737c": 12.5, "8bc8932174c5": 12.5, "a96dee6a88af": 12.5, "c9254c5af0ca": 12.5, "c9ea1582f8a9": 12.5, "e7cd38d438d9": 12.5, "ef5b7d83663c": 12.5}

True

0.49929591694183434

PrJoBDa9TfIW8lspVxfq

{"NO": 166.99136010474066, "YES": 61.59022457241973}

1

will-the-us-cpi-inflation-report-fo

149.29262403270656

Will the US CPI inflation report for June 2022 be equal to or greater than May 2022?

1657684740000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.6407687207947523

True

play

YES

public

1654871419029

Ben

Resolves YES if the June 2022 US CPI inflation report is >= 1.0%

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.762935635854542, "platformFee": 0.12386878116214366, "liquidityFee": 0.7432126869728618}

0

1657717338268

100.74321268697285

bcongdon

1657717331511

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

8

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569697}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1657629775184

1657717329921

0.73

0.5076816866541706

hBdIuqsXLPSu4RXMUvtw

{"NO": 130.2536820445526, "YES": 88.60286840200354}

1

will-spindle-make-a-single-50k-bet

984.0940344945536

Will Spindle make a single 50k bet by 8/1/2022

1659175178627

jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3

cpmm-1

0

2.6566896609352737

True

play

YES

public

1654872672145

Spindle

The answer is yes but you can vote on it anyway.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.706808481774222, "platformFee": 0.6109050041760894, "liquidityFee": 3.665430025056536}

0

1659175178627

103.66543002505654

Spindle

1659175211476

0

https://firebasestorage.…669-a627f99c07a6

8

0

[{"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime": 1665874621431}]

["marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1659090031139

1659175205373

0.6025373965090828

0.4602344808901925

n9hJT8iMPE7LPnlpjqdH

{"NO": 94.4487637252968, "YES": 223.40167574326466}

0.2649665135869804

will-luria-replicate

130.51262915911136

Will Luria replicate?

1972353540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654877621929

Enopoletus Harding

Scott recently wrote about Luria asking questions to some Uzbek peasants in the 1930s here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling?s=r The thing is, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks (after 80 years of mass literacy) are not exactly high in the IQ department TODAY -Kyrgyz scored around the equival...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9024893651286079, "platformFee": 0.15041489418810133, "liquidityFee": 0.9024893651286079}

0

140.9024893651286

EnopoletusHarding

1707550160449

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

0

6

0

4

[{"name": "Harding's national questions", "slug": "hardings-national-questions", "groupId": "1VFeQWsYuY13IFQ6J55S", "createdTime": 1658529389779}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547300}]

["hardings-national-questions", "culture-default"]

0.5

1707550160265

1655051146728

0.3990624879736589

205aYKjPLFZf67blLRiA

{"NO": 25.11088394594752, "YES": 931.9921532506683}

0

lottery-this-question-will-resolve

3415.208183434984

LOTTERY! This question will resolve YES with a 1/1000 probability.

1655416740000

W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2

cpmm-1

0

4.193784292751968

True

play

NO

public

1654878173388

Franek Żak

I will run `random.randint(0,1000)` sometime during 17.06. If the number I get is 333, I will resolve as yes. Otherwise I will resolve as NO.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.299586706688317, "platformFee": 1.0499311177813864, "liquidityFee": 6.299586706688317}

0

1655460331935

111.29958670668829

FranekZak

1655460379001

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c

23

0

1

0.5

1655401192495

1655460377327

0.017577600598668114

0.4989730618234728

HYIGAFv4s0pk73gjNeMf

{"NO": 43.609451717057844, "YES": 238.69408792505735}

0

stranger-things-s4-rot13-jvyy-gur-t

141

[Stranger Things S4] rot13: jvyy gur tvey anzrq anapl qvr?

1656626340000

hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2

cpmm-1

0

3.0869475842509733

True

play

NO

public

1654878822054

Warty

This market resolves Yes if... ---anti-spoiler padding--- ------------------------------ ------------------------------ ------------------------------ Nancy Wheeler dies in Stranger Things season 4 volume 2. This includes if Vecna succeeds in killing her with the current attack.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.07601275972148, "platformFee": 0.1540201369557538, "liquidityFee": 0.9241208217345229}

0

1656930245663

100.92412082173452

warty

1656623406341

0

https://firebasestorage.…fed-6ca5ba3a485c

4

0

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542754}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1656623406217

0.1539413999317947

0.4987175308478258

K3mm5M5UtojkEaVvAfvE

{"NO": 72.1142007287294, "YES": 146.28619046541834}

0.3290590712677553

will-i-finish-reading-genesis-exodu

72

Will I finish reading Genesis, Exodus, and Leviticus by the end of Summer

1657511940000

Q6mXSIA1pBVjcZD8Mzw6YjM8p5B3

cpmm-1

0

2.7834816348044753

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654881044884

Ray Lee

This question resolves to a Yes if I successfully read Genesis, Exodus, and Leviticus by the end of the Summer. And a No if I don't. For background I am a college student on break and have been an agnostic atheist my entire life. I am also reading two bibles semi simultaneously, the Oxford Annotated NRSV Bible and the...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1697237360713

101.30843357433601

RayLee

1697237403734

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx_ogsXfshLIFCbwPJSHxSO6p-fmQKH9nhc0KKc=s96-c

6

0

1

10

0.5

1657496685840

1697237401988

0.33

0.4983744785446038

l2GVAlei1ZC0FzH7e3Sm

{"NO": 224.92897164520463, "YES": 105.1956536162209}

1

will-the-median-brier-score-for-bin

234.3185375335778

Will the median Brier score for binary-resolved markets resolved in June be below 0.125?

1656647940000

HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2

cpmm-1

0

2.0699969453464107

True

play

YES

public

1654887403149

wasabipesto

This will resolve based on the calculations run on this page: https://wasabipesto.com/jupyter/manifold This number is calculated only on binary markets resolved to YES or NO. It uses the formula described here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score As of 6/10 the 1-month median is 0.1277. This market resolves YES...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.015473596333409, "platformFee": 0.3345484802796401, "liquidityFee": 2.0072908816778408}

0

1656675776403

152.00729088167785

wasabipesto

1656675794672

0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

3

0

1

0.5

1656513311569

1656675792679

0.679932273792101

0.5123865300627841

r9nWD0R5N8k8vFto7aUf

{"NO": 1099.9180327868853, "YES": 10.083330582140341}

1

is-this-title-true

1000

Is this title true?

1654887806430

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

5.071977266241901

True

play

YES

public

1654887786745

Isaac King

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885184, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475308, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885184}

0

1654887806430

100.49180327868852

IsaacKing

1654918330444

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

0

0.5

1654887800665

1654918329195

0.5

0.15823763907503377

2fHD0J7iccCdKFaujy71

{"NO": 909.702886426774, "YES": 1315.5929960378976}

0.11503368968289229

is-the-berylliumhelium-atomki-anoma

474.6827750274388

Is the beryllium/helium ATOMKI anomaly due to a new particle?

2209100340000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

9.887885330543057

False

basic

public

1654888250748

Scott Lawrence

See here for an overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X17_particle. In short, decays of beryllium and helium nuclei do not match what is predicted from nuclear physics. As I write this, the result has not yet been independently reproduced. The anomalous decays are consistent with a new fundamental particle of mass ~...

BINARY

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ScottLawrence

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0.03745766134794238

will-i-be-cancelled-by-2025

3173.296514834228

Will I be cancelled by 2025?

1735793940000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

0

10.407360603956286

False

basic

public

1654888549535

Nuño Sempere

This question resolves yes if I am "cancelled" in the next few years." This would involve things like: - Me being dismissed from my job due to non-work-related factors - Me being shunned from the EA community - My EA forum account being deleted without my consent - etc. Question will resolve according to my best judg...

BINARY

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NuñoSempere

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0.5

1713101221219

1662287384990

0.28465354462812276

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{"NO": 62.82567680099918, "YES": 497.1955779397268}

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before-2023-will-the-tories-change

600.3808607367057

Before 2023, will the Tories change the rules to allow another vote of no confidence?

1672531140000

MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2

cpmm-1

0

3.601712881031786

True

play

NO

public

1654889970695

Jonathan Nankivell

At present, according to party rules, Conservative MPs will not be allowed to hold another confidence vote for a year. However, there has been speculation the rules could be changed, in order to hold another vote sooner. When asked about it, Sir Graham Brady MP - the chairman of a group called the 1922 Committee, whi...

BINARY

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JonathanNankivell

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["politics-default", "please-resolve"]

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1671664457964

1673965452940

0.05

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what-will-the-crude-death-rate-in-s

142

What will the crude death rate in Sri Lanka be for 2022.

1704085140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.802583473135632

True

play

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public

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GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN?locations=LK", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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340

GeorgeVii

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ANYONE

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14

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["world-default", "asia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"64d24db550e0": 100}

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True

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filNQ7Bg2AcUFpKgP2nn

{"NO": 890.0881390000937, "YES": 2133.6101760520028}

0.021147717462037093

will-jimmy-carter-be-cryopreserved

24366.7388129187

Will Jimmy Carter be cryopreserved?

1844913540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

5.293304824724622

False

basic

public

1654895201624

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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StochasticParrot

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0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

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["jimmy-carter"]

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1718394265346

1656796207925

False

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{"NO": 183.1880842530224, "YES": 79.21122197888428}

1

will-gcrl-get-an-offer-from-anthrop

472.7080096889877

Will gcrl get an offer from Anthropic?

1655326591478

Lmpp0e3FyBOmQ181RoJyPNohyeH3

cpmm-1

0

2.5374589428569356

True

play

YES

public

1654895469526

Jennifer Zhou

This question resolves to YES iff gcrl gets an offer from Anthropic any time in the next 30 days. Jun 10, 11:51pm: Since people are actually betting this market I guess I should say that I interviewed already and expect to hear back next week.

BINARY

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1655326591478

109.28481450346162

jennifer

1655140487028

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxwxJL4fjsSnS6wwDxEcm8qRs30s923dmUHkdDS=s96-c

10

0

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1655140486700

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{"NO": 148.96773510699313, "YES": 90.2308924896111}

1

will-gcrl-get-an-offer-from-redwood

404.00726382268806

Will gcrl get an offer from Redwood Research?

1655947547165

Lmpp0e3FyBOmQ181RoJyPNohyeH3

cpmm-1

0

2.536999621311709

True

play

YES

public

1654895561848

Jennifer Zhou

This question resolves to YES iff gcrl gets an offer from Redwood Research any time this year.

BINARY

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0

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1655947547165

107.51583171770383

jennifer

1655265882946

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxwxJL4fjsSnS6wwDxEcm8qRs30s923dmUHkdDS=s96-c

9

0

0.5

1655265882744

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0.4984958670091833

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{"NO": 65.52512665182257, "YES": 159.53530308435995}

0

this-frage-ne-risolvera-pas-som-si

60

This Frage ne risolverà pas som sí.

1655524740000

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cpmm-1

0

2.8293069028099374

True

play

NO

public

1654896207456

Bionic

Jun 16, 3:49am: For a bit of help: This is a puzzle, with a pretty simple solution that will be explained at the resolution time. The solution implies either that you must buy YES, or that you must buy NO. To you to figure out which is right! Jun 18, 12:01am: If you translate each word independently, it gives the sent...

BINARY

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1655524899107

101.0532113885413

BionicD0LPH1N

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{"NO": 355.8127779077931, "YES": 30.529918613923712}

1

can-you-bet-on-your-own-free-questi

256

Can you bet on your own free question to make some money back you lost without getting banned?

1654897372435

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

0

3.4435264660851646

True

play

YES

public

1654897345625

Mr Stone

BINARY

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0

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1654897372435

101.12333255324128

stone

1654897361702

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{"NO": 62.463359039565574, "YES": 169.7714777295212}

0

will-italy-beat-england-in-saturday

70

Will Italy beat England in Saturday's Nations League Game?

1654973100000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.8426047281182014

True

play

NO

public

1654897473636

John Roxton

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61687945 Resolves YES if Italy beats England in Saturday's Nations League game, and NO in all other cases. Close date updated to 2022-06-11 7:45 pm Jun 11, 10:06pm: FT: England 0-0 Italy

BINARY

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0

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1654981598910

101.37113362287262

JohnRoxton

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0

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2

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404554}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1654972374799

0.31634433428091624

Akl88xfdM8L7YXRw6ocr

all-responses-with-10-or-greater-wi

13295.770855608222

All responses with 10% or greater win.

1655535540000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.623918554294234

True

play

21c8ae07f937

public

1654897787251

SneakySly

I will select all answers with percentage >= 10 as equally winning responses.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 97.17157281109435, "platformFee": 24.292893202773588, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655538341033

1839.9999999999986

SneakySly

1655535531801

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

21

0

ANYONE

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1655535531653

1655532248541

{"21c8ae07f937": 100}

True

0.5033270758167273

PE4gT4aNaGdbBBrm9yVC

{"NO": 50133.3543784564, "YES": 0.23942351635923842}

1

will-i-weigh-80kg-at-any-point-befo

50447.27961272722

Will I weigh <80kg at any point before September 1st?

1658075337459

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

5.183080409728483

True

play

YES

public

1654898951609

Joel Becker

Resolves yes if I get >=1 weight measurement of <80kg prior to or on August 31st 2022. Some history. In the months January to June this year I have averaged: 80.43 (Jan), 80.47, 80.53, 80.62, 81.51, 82.02 (June). In those same months I have weighed in at <80kg on the following number of days: 6, 6, 5, 1, 1, 0. Happy ...

BINARY

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0

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0

1658075337459

102.5924241171288

JoelBecker

1658075305934

0

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8

0

0.5

1658075268929

1658075301178

0.3392370044151976

fhaLbwbTlwNg3zVQk8Zq

zendo-guess-my-rule

176.30866488327484

Zendo: guess my rule.

1655333238642

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.969229171416394

True

play

6f9171ef1c96

public

1654900981596

Duncn

I have a rule (or set of rules) that allows me to label words as correct or incorrect. Post a word, and I will comment if it is correct or incorrect. Post a rule and I will provide a counterexample, or select your rule as the winner of the market if I cannot provide a counterexample.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.626336167574045, "platformFee": 1.1565840418935112, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655333238642

959.9999999999997

Duncn

1655333266706

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

6

0

ANYONE

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1655333083532

1655333264672

{"6f9171ef1c96": 100}

True

0.3561263813179279

YTSNBzIU6C5cxbsxBGvq

{"NO": 256.2505406498517, "YES": 14031.480612576628}

0

will-manifold-be-valued-at-33m-at-a

36996.303932586845

Will Manifold be valued at >=$33M at any point in the next year?

1686380340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

0.9251732704343434

True

basic

NO

public

1654901162236

Austin

We last raised at a $22M post-money valuation; so a $33M valuation would represent a ~50% increase.

BINARY

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1686778892729

1255.0380895169142

Austin

1686873494660

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

76

0

1

65

[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429344}]

["manifold-investors"]

0.5

1686246532884

1686873491805

0.01

EzgAA8zZPPfZ6tsPYkTG

stormlight-archive-who-will-bqvhzf

677.2746161256133

[Stormlight Archive] Who will be [Bqvhz'f Punzcvba] in book 5?

1733461140000

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654901267743

Forrest

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When I finish reading the fifth Stormlight novel, I will resolve this to the identity of Odium's Champion. Last I heard, the plan was for it to be published in December of 2024, and I've consistently read these within a month of publication in the ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1000

Forrest

1718813412598

0

https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

10

0

ANYONE

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1

6

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancie...

["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "ancient-markets", "fiction", "cosmere"]

1718813409358

1707268680989

True

0.5

NSmxioQ6CuWTASKyv7mU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-1eb3c9a93f7a

0

test

1654902012279

mwaVAaKkabODsH8g5VrtbshsXz03

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654901898223

Boa WishBone

Lake Estancia was a lake formed in the Estancia Valley, central New Mexico, which left various coastal landforms in the valley. The lake was mostly fed by creek and groundwater from the Manzano Mountains, and fluctuated between freshwater stages and saltier stages. The lake had a diverse fauna, including cutthroat trou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654902012279

100

BoaWishBone

1654901898223

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw5gyLgnLrKX8FzRDAvwB82pNBGCgQIuZ2aJ89R=s96-c

0

0.5

CrGtMXNOZt2o90aoDU5f

{"NO": 112, "YES": 112}

1

test3-b8a673796f14

0

test3

1659458460000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.552349613507671

True

play

YES

public

1654903568766

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lake Estancia was a lake formed in the Estancia Valley, central New Mexico, which left various coastal landforms in the valley. The lake was mostly fed by creek and groundwater from the Manzano Mountains, and fluctuated between freshwater stages an...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663265760032

112

ian

1654903568766

0

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1

3

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0.499471465848601

CogLjuklhlbBidEhdEUl

{"NO": 83.38648698202542, "YES": 129.08382160143256}

0

will-justin-biebers-song-stay-stay

80

Will Justin Bieber's song "Stay" stay in the top 10 position in "Billboard Hot 100" chart next week?

1655168400000

TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2

cpmm-1

0

2.7239276982700487

True

play

NO

public

1654904947054

Danny Kim

Billboard updates itself every Tuesday so the question will close before then. https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ Note: 1. The current position of the song is at 10th place. 2. The position of the week before was 12th. 3. The song has been on the Billboard Hot 100 for the past 47 weeks The song is linked in ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8622924599868065, "platformFee": 0.3103820766644677, "liquidityFee": 1.8622924599868065}

0

1655449446934

101.8622924599868

DannyKim

1655164050149

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwF6WBu3EFkk8aLyOnuxCRnOkUjbRCTwWmoMZRSVg=s96-c

3

0

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542281}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1655164049979

0.3919578632913667

0.5095367283231015

nYt2KE9U5stucQVm3RKA

{"NO": 396.8626771937775, "YES": 28.211120923026712}

0.9359576472516961

will-the-username-potato-be-occupie

372.8473071739526

Will the username "potato" be occupied for at least a week before the end of the year?

1656692329293

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

3.527834676539721

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654904987558

1

@potato resolves to yes whenever I notice it has happened, or if 2 witnesses can reliably attest to its happening. Jun 10, 6:49pm: I will not be changing my own username to "potato"

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656692329293

101.74009379361941

1

1656731322644

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

3

0

0.5

1654952165415

1656731317443

0.9359576472516961

0.5042129206534389

nJ8l0TQY2hMu4DFE3axx

{"NO": 199.79999999999998, "YES": 53.05856129685915}

1

test-d50f9d2a3221

100

Test

1654905057514

TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2

cpmm-1

0

2.9416697102234584

True

play

YES

public

1654905033197

Danny Kim

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1999999999999997, "platformFee": 0.19999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 1.1999999999999997}

0

1654905057514

101.2

DannyKim

1654905047766

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwF6WBu3EFkk8aLyOnuxCRnOkUjbRCTwWmoMZRSVg=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1654905047507

0.5

6xbwpDD6k3AgeBLNvnVe

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-stag-call-the-landlord-about-m

0

Will Stag call the landlord about my AC tomorrow?

1654988340000

w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

YES

public

1654906030368

tenadome

This resolves to YES if Stag calls the landlord about my AC tomorrow by 11:59 PM BST, regardless of whether or not the landlord picks up. Close date updated to 2022-06-11 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655046670654

100

nmehndir

1654906030368

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-31da9418426c

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529471447}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

0.5091932051881118

vBimUTCtT336K9QkBRFX

{"NO": 403.8068155014923, "YES": 27.09850523468173}

1

will-raymond-order-whey-protein-tom

304

Will Raymond order whey protein tomorrow?

1654988340000

w6r4VPqhpHNWZWyWMV2tuJUfDyE2

cpmm-1

0

3.5833872951677797

True

play

YES

public

1654906527157

tenadome

This resolves to YES if Raymond orders whey protein by 11:59 PM BST tomorrow (6/11). This also resolves to YES if he ordered it on 6/10 and I just didn't know.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1591069910460128, "platformFee": 0.1931844985076688, "liquidityFee": 1.1591069910460128}

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1655046641989

101.15910699104602

nmehndir

1654959949028

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-31da9418426c

2

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510516}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1654959947644

0.9392454566739687

0.5123865300627841

hrSZhVjlwvl1z7dTCOFM

{"NO": 1099.9180327868853, "YES": 10.083330582140341}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-58b4d282db9b

1000

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654906615847

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

5.071977266241901

True

play

YES

public

1654906605259

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885184, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475308, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885184}

0

1654906615847

100.49180327868852

PeterBerggrenf455

1654906613653

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1654906612379

0.5

0.512861409200769

FFHa4MKjEbXHptHP1ktT

{"NO": 1599.9416342412453, "YES": 6.953354397451491}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-4fa515642a07

1500

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654906640147

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

5.414008783369049

True

play

YES

public

1654906625771

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3501945525291816, "platformFee": 0.058365758754863606, "liquidityFee": 0.3501945525291816}

0

1654906640147

100.35019455252917

unit_24601

1654906633772

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.5

1654906632403

0.5

0.5108391650557862

6LkjdsxW3NHShQkH1nzt

{"NO": 577.8610804338475, "YES": 19.022299180312793}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-8680a75bfc1c

478

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1654906665549

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

4.061107086740574

True

play

YES

public

1654906655129

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8335173969147057, "platformFee": 0.13891956615245096, "liquidityFee": 0.8335173969147057}

0

1654906665549

100.8335173969147

SayJarva

1654906660956

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1654906660829

0.5

0.25378232145019985

Dt1TNuHPvMlQucwdIIan

{"NO": 309.62821687423076, "YES": 444.456880850205}

0.19154206231599752

will-holly-elmore-be-cancelled-by-2

3808.4849043860145

Will Holly Elmore be cancelled by 2025

1735707600000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1654909100421

Nuño Sempere

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The details the same as this question: <", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-i-be-cancelled-by-2025", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/wi...

BINARY

{"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4654523479326325, "platformFee": 0.09201599499418207, "liquidityFee": 0.5123595505618035}

0

1000

NuñoSempere

1713975135628

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

1

11

0

7

[{"name": "Scandals", "slug": "scandals", "groupId": "725c62ec-201c-4c3e-913e-a7291545259a", "createdTime": 1700230221013}]

["scandals"]

0.5

1713975129199

1690871811537

0.23352579998722622

eSPoiHc1N7aEwnskXvcw

{"NO": 140.40010118430456, "YES": 1469.144928839745}

0

will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-man

2666.943077799644

Will there be a way to exchange manifold dollars for US dollars by the end of 2022?

1672531140000

oo35Ce7Y10RjKbpNf6VlZqdZNah1

cpmm-1

0

2.1060138521575356

True

play

NO

public

1654909308127

Nils

This question resolves to "YES" if there is a way to convert manifold dollars into US dollars automatically by the end of the year. This doesn't necessarily have to be done by manifold themselves as it is possible to exchange manifold dollars by creating questions and resolving it appropriatly.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.55644003907532, "platformFee": 0.8551950400401999, "liquidityFee": 5.1311702402411985}

0

1672622970883

265.1311702402412

Nils

1717246650438

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyNa3-FVU-2w0nedM7jRSrCZ53mqwAZD5zwZudQ=s96-c

30

0

1

26

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "cr...

["predictions-on-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672524457572

1717246649351

0.03

0.5132829894943982

JrkxhgVclUJJH6imHWkx

{"NO": 2852.9662192382484, "YES": 3.910991115627808}

1

i-cant-think-of-a-synonym-for-yes

2753

I can't think of a synonym for yes

1654912039444

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.38633930256165

True

play

YES

public

1654912013514

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.20268457051129415, "platformFee": 0.03378076175188236, "liquidityFee": 0.20268457051129415}

0

1654912039444

100.2026845705113

Electricitypipe

1654912033819

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1654912033635

0.5

jY2Yo1R7Ze2LlirO599Y

what-is-love

990.7546630542694

What is love?

1655564400000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.668969596462296

True

play

MKT

public

1654913285270

Matt P

I'll resolve to the answer or answers I like best.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 16.800000000000004, "platformFee": 4.200000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655573134149

640

MattP

1655577521436

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "85650f4de862", "prob": 0.012257122982799466, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.10923224238684093, "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.802503614398438, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jY2Yo1R7Ze2LlirO599Y", "createdTime": 1654913285424, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546802}, {"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1658529555241}]

["philosophy", "culture-default"]

1655519315005

1655577519348

{"04c60f9f0b48": 13.86257835033531, "419e1dab523e": 9.893240722820485, "5bb28968b058": 6.931289175167655, "71756a685ab5": 20.793867525502964, "90f147439816": 20.793867525502964, "94e188789a37": 6.931289175167655, "d9d9add26584": 20.793867525502964}

True

0.5047133265372286

rRTmgUN0NnL7MOeQgYNZ

{"NO": 518.5669726314093, "YES": 21.280687902452648}

1

will-the-floating-create-new-market

537.7037530739498

Will the floating "create new market" button on mobile still be here on Father's Day?

1655665200000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

3.863117086762183

True

play

YES

public

1654913622400

Matt P

Question resolves YES if when I check the homepage shortly after closing, there is a big floating "create new market" button somewhere on the screen obstructing the rest of the lovely webpage. Changes made between market creation and close don't matter, just if the button is there on Father's Day.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.706234043416799, "platformFee": 0.4940979567025255, "liquidityFee": 2.9645877402151526}

0

1655666193829

136.6643719691978

MattP

1655666222042

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

13

0

0.5

1655649138026

1655666217263

0.9612879492955699

b6H22mjdDyyKVvRWx15g

how-should-you-resolve-a-free-respo

138.52207753560282

How should you resolve a free response market in case of a tie?

1655524740000

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.8199335149638545

True

play

MKT

public

1654914768644

Multicore

Suppose that you've got a free response market about which thing will score highest on some numerical metric, but when it's time to resolve the market two or more options have scored exactly the same. What do you do? Prompted by discussion on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/what-is-the-best-strategy-in-ddsci For th...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.019116898575889, "platformFee": 1.0047792246439722, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655525840839

400

Multicore

1655339378210

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "af7a757fe6e0", "prob": 0.20759568337841888, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.750737585596784, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.67027742825545, "textFts": "", "contractId": "b6H22mjdDyyKVvRWx15g", "createdTime": 1654914768720, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1655338646088

1655339376706

{"53f0ef12999d": 5.5016224161089635, "bca11e6781fd": 6.549550495367815, "dc9148403758": 76.710955221946, "fcbd53391a6a": 11.237871866577223}

True

0.7757895104365797

ClcwfMa20ORITodHWBO0

{"NO": 1221.8755857002782, "YES": 919.6010742517037}

0.8213467066322947

rot13-will-xnynqva-survive-book-5-o

415.71734405032157

[ROT13] Will [Xnynqva] survive Book 5 of Stormlight Archive?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.67379916020834

False

basic

public

1654914998170

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kaladin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": " survives book 5. Resolves NO if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kaladin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": " ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.193292495262193, "platformFee": 0.21205684572952466, "liquidityFee": 1.272341074377148}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1717176939764

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

15

0

3

5

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492243}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659590797654}, {"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "co...

["cosmere", "books", "olivia", "fiction", "new-years-resolutions-2025"]

0.5

1717176936638

1707256452067

0.43680910658046157

uPNMqjdCmwzA5fHMa3P9

{"NO": 21.425010033781405, "YES": 1449.7698628478702}

0

will-florida-umc-reconsider-its-vot

2021.7744217750565

Will Florida UMC reconsider its vote on 16 provisional candidates for ministry?

1672030740000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

4.0898220230135385

True

play

NO

public

1654915755607

Martin Randall

https://hackingchristianity.net/2022/06/the-cruelty-is-the-point-behind-floridas-veto-of-an-entire-class-of-new-umc-clergy.html > My prayer is that the clergy session vote gets reconsidered, that people who voted “no” reconsider the collateral damage of their actions and vote “yes,” Will the clergy session vote get r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324}

0

1672080110055

140.27149321266967

MartinRandall

1672078076586

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

6

0

1

7

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509830}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1672028316061

1672078072591

0.01

0.49988356486494256

D9GbwFmYrWN75FrFCBn6

{"NO": 501.79492511566303, "YES": 18.42975596119833}

1

will-i-be-attempting-to-win-the-rec

6100

Will I be attempting to win the recent "whale bait" question involving selecting answers at greater than 30% odds?

1654919023097

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

4.083375793614995

True

play

YES

public

1654918973567

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1011787774940793, "platformFee": 0.18352979624901322, "liquidityFee": 1.1011787774940793}

0

1654919023097

101.10117877749408

PeterBerggren

1654919015687

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

2

0

0.5

1654919014263

0.00032583745168578745

0.5006799964056058

N5GvEB0f6fm61lJDo9oK

{"NO": 1002.10856664085, "YES": 8.941465793725463}

1

test-market-please-ignore-89781019f99e

6000

test market please ignore

1654919665704

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

5.197011295033542

True

play

YES

public

1654919631314

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6127293642139966, "platformFee": 0.10212156070233278, "liquidityFee": 0.6127293642139966}

0

1654919665704

100.61272936421399

PeterBerggren

1654919662844

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

2

0

0.5

1654919660943

0.00040693846073103896

0.49987872713595094

9YNt1inmog6fVoigqizM

{"NO": 23.591240591746242, "YES": 428.80348771514923}

0

will-mathlib-add-the-isoperimetric

463

Will mathlib add the Isoperimetric theorem?

1657598340000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

3.732146562385293

True

play

NO

public

1654922206636

Bolton Bailey

Resolves according to [this list](https://leanprover-community.github.io/100.html). Resolves No if it hasn't been added by the close time.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.807692078396741, "platformFee": 0.04524886877828055, "liquidityFee": 0.2714932126696833}

0

1657598725851

100.27149321266968

BoltonBailey

1657569024912

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

5

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444547}, {"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1667164635544}]

["technology-default", "the-lean-theorem-prover"]

0.5

1657569023630

1654959978349

0.05212349820627584

0.49394153792073775

AINHcRKIsy6iNKCpj5tA

{"NO": 128.53642121632072, "YES": 88.37406075449911}

0.2

do-turtles-dream

294

Do turtles dream?

1655535540000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

2.6606643309665863

True

play

MKT

public

1654922982683

Sinclair Chen

post evidence / reasoning, and I'll decide based on evidence at the end of a week

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1655764422505

103.41288419258436

Sinclair

1661603951737

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

14

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524112}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1655520241013

1661603949221

0.2

0.487265940748815

s62Z9CX6ATX0hlja74uP

{"NO": 18079.06088316551, "YES": 5.608089348279464}

1

will-i-be-in-the-top-5-of-the-top-c

17994.347167339583

Will I be in the top 5 of the top creators leaderboard by July 10?

1656900013288

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.9911911924715477

True

play

YES

public

1654926652968

Jack

Will I be in the top 5 of the "Top creators" of https://manifold.markets/leaderboards at any time before July 10 (one month from the date I created this market)? To deal with edge cases where e.g. the leaderboard changes quickly and I'm on and off again before anyone notices, I'll say that it resolves YES if either I ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.641068764064642, "platformFee": 0.7422782027173783, "liquidityFee": 4.453669216304269}

0

1656900013288

369.3492088872822

jack

1656901749317

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

7

0

0.5

1656899996802

1656901747573

0.9982982202261319

0.5001078033232571

Z4yT6jE0JqIeArtsL265

{"NO": 91.2648354216237, "YES": 115.40438201433699}

1

will-the-warriors-win-game-6-of-the

67

Will the Warriors win Game 6 of the NBA Finals 2022?

1655427540000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

0

2.727886711647464

True

play

YES

public

1654938742246

howtodowtle

Market for Game 2: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-2-of-the (resolved) Market for Game 3: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-3-of-the (resolved) Market for Game 4: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the (resolved) Market f...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.2371852988955827, "platformFee": 0.2191563467862022, "liquidityFee": 1.314938080717213}

0

1655445731732

101.31493808071721

howtodowtle

1655417575190

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

5

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529404402}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655417573956

0.4417049272134934

5QIBIgJYj1UNogZft3tZ

how-will-numeric-markets-function-w

201

How will numeric markets function when they return?

1656847330804

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.768560211924739

True

play

64a7c0e14751

public

1654941716446

David Glidden

Tl;dr: another round of this market from last month: https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-will-range-markets-work-in-mani Creating new numeric/scalar markets like this one (https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-much-will-our-condo-in-washingt) is not currently possible. I believe the option was recently removed partially ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.24, "platformFee": 1.31, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656847330804

340

dglid

1655137713328

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b74a1f90c826", "prob": 0.11037405768148255, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.442830746782113, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.8697601021385, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5QIBIgJYj1UNogZft3tZ", "createdTime": 1654941716557, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1655126448956

1655137710510

{"64a7c0e14751": 100}

True

0.5066165222572014

RUgnmXB7QMjnXTdshOkr

{"NO": 119.171297081321, "YES": 98.10418293712885}

1

will-i-finish-cleaning-out-the-stai

185

Will I finish cleaning out the staircase closet before June 18th?

1655317512607

KV6q96Fl8JbXbfHXFeuA4q1Hss22

cpmm-1

0

2.627043326341303

True

play

YES

public

1654950653715

Dark

I already did half in the span of about a week, however, I have limited control over my time and I find the task tremendously aversive. Posting this out of mild curiosity on personal question prediction markets, especially related to goal setting.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.998151000284058, "platformFee": 0.666358500047343, "liquidityFee": 3.998151000284058}

0

1655317512607

103.99815100028404

Dark

1655317561409

0

https://firebasestorage.…51f-ed51efef297e

8

0

0.5

1655219162402

1655317559888

0.5550261116801573

LkFyGZZuhTgqvIAQBVtm

what-tracks-will-be-added-in-the-ne

26

What tracks will be added in the next wave of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC?

1659015186091

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.948199085047036

True

play

MKT

public

1654955345594

N.C. Young

Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.44, "platformFee": 1.11, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659015186091

499.9999999999999

NcyRocks

1659014976268

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b1e5f3c73ae0", "prob": 0.6298815822625347, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.16994489020264, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.078259617483074, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LkFyGZZuhTgqvIAQBVtm", "createdTime": 1654955345716, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

https://firebasestorage.…247-b152a4684b70

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459360}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665609703352}]

["nintendo", "gaming"]

1659014975074

{"13e763cbf9d5": 12.5, "4914621adcbb": 12.5, "7248eab20355": 12.5, "755e357702de": 12.5, "845318c4ba89": 12.5, "ab7b106c7f16": 12.5, "af1a4d0132ba": 12.5, "bba8bfd03592": 12.5}

True

0.506447381666699

7jN1em3122heuBTkv3hA

{"NO": 3369.474153484181, "YES": 3.500834132028558}

1

will-there-be-10-deaths-in-the-curr

3277.384897830401

Will there be >10 deaths in the current monkeypox outbreak?(in 2022)

1662407147360

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

5.259639147360425

True

play

YES

public

1654961669631

Tim P

Resolves yes if threshold is crossed. Resolves no if the outbreak seems to be over, or after 2022. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.780992704610101, "platformFee": 0.32800880383838654, "liquidityFee": 1.9680528230303187}

0

1662407147360

101.96805282303033

TimP

1662407580590

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

13

0

14

[{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1660362367746}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946147}, {"name": "World", ...

["world-default", "medicine", "monkeypox", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1662407031340

1662407579466

0.9600968001310765

sKljEA7MfUy8e5wDDZkF

when-will-the-first-antiagi-terror

203

When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?

2209093140000

zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654962140704

Ray Doraisamy

Will be resolved if an attack resulting in the death of at least one human by another human is reported from at least five sources and that death is claimed by either the killer or a group who claims the attack for the purpose of raising awareness of AI safety or for preventing the development of an artificial general ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

540

RayDoraisamy

1715003721238

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c

1

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "257cf1a477d6", "prob": 0.26846358291497757, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.798686097423937, "userId": "zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.04983974687049, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sKljEA7MfUy8e5wDDZkF", "createdTime": 1654962140784, "probChanges": {"day": -0.7315364170...

8

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421900}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588875}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0...

["ai", "world-default", "terrorism", "ancient-markets"]

1715003717928

1709460962734

True

0.30124326121458006

UOBUJvppc0v7NU4noXam

{"NO": 665.1177049231787, "YES": 11626.958466499846}

0

will-a-successor-to-gpt3-eg-gpt4-be

22867.343072103286

Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?

1672559940000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

0.47721459700820157

True

basic

NO

public

1654963470796

Ben

Resolves YES if OpenAI announces GPT-4 in 2022. Also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a clear successor to GPT-3 that resembles the step change in capabilities from GPT-2 to GPT-3, but is not named GPT-4.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.330190166275585, "platformFee": 0.3441702770215945, "liquidityFee": 2.0650216621295665}

0

1672678276809

1642.0650216621295

bcongdon

1672560097380

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

126

0

1

90

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666620442630}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449452}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "user...

["technology-default", "ai", "gpt4-speculation"]

0.5

1672557679549

1672560093826

0.02

0.5034200699056438

L5kMLk7kD1PTb82iOJsr

{"NO": 160.56188150354288, "YES": 66.73465039504126}

1

will-justin-biebers-facial-paralysi

135.4655485397917

Will Justin Bieber's facial paralysis (Ramsay Hunt Syndrome) resolve within 9 months?

1659989843108

RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3

cpmm-1

0

2.8057151119701276

True

play

YES

public

1654965723635

Research.Bet

Justin Bieber was recently diagnosed with Ramsay Hunt Syndrome: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61767457 Ramsay Hunt Syndrome is a complication of the reactivation of the virus that causes chickenpox and shingles (Varicella Zoster Virus, or VZV). The diagnosis usually requires the triad of: 1) ipsilatera...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.645486074153336, "platformFee": 0.26736676896628375, "liquidityFee": 1.6042006137977023}

0

1659989843108

101.6042006137977

ResearchBet

1659490425278

0

https://firebasestorage.…a71-dcefd6cf0075

7

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527138}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1659490423612

0.7092275879585176

0.6213611018868406

eAkUXWttu8vM6gd0DQps

{"NO": 254.4406273246293, "YES": 146.5210782868491}

0.7402421751102749

will-flycueran-survive-the-fifth-st

82.70778496404371

Will [Flycueran] survive the fifth Stormlight Archive book?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654965767928

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sylphrena", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": " is killed or merged with another person in some way, as has been speculated about for the Fifth Ideal", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5777056230100994, "platformFee": 0.16643618022363812, "liquidityFee": 0.9986170813418286}

0

185.99861708134182

LivInTheLookingGlass

1714475862582

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

9

0

3

7

[{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669223497361}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492244}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "...

["cosmere", "books", "olivia", "fiction", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1710246121234

1705245488034

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.48585135879487934

y1Hx73nqiS0POmNiJn8a

{"NO": 19.026338353002686, "YES": 625.6201912191443}

0

will-my-twitter-followers-prefer-th

544

Will my Twitter followers prefer the Tajik or Persian alphabet?

1655068312348

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

4.062235675414317

True

play

NO

public

1654967265075

Enopoletus Harding

Pulling an Aella. This question resolves to Yes if my Twitter followers prefer the Tajik alphabet, No if they prefer the Persian alphabet.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.195361224032714, "platformFee": 0.3658935373387857, "liquidityFee": 2.195361224032714}

0

1655068312348

102.19536122403272

EnopoletusHarding

1655068297607

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

3

0

0.5

1655068296354

0.14336172344885778

0.498197960968242

k0VVtKjzbLp9tYZJ21mS

{"NO": 69.41372141372142, "YES": 149.84615384615387}

0.25

what-will-my-next-redactle-score-be

50

What will my next redactle score be?

1655082361568

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

2.8097738369474077

True

play

MKT

public

1654967409147

1

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.redactle.com/\n%=guess number\nResolves to 100 if my guesses go over 100, or if i put in a reasonable effort to solve but fail. I will not seek hints from reddit, although I may use Google to help with deduction if it is about a subject that I do not know (for example, English poets, Hinduism, geography, etc). If Google is employed significantly (if it goes much beyond something like verifying 'oh this indeed means what I think it means'), I will add +20 to the guess-count. \n\nLeaving open for 2 days in case I forget. \n\nMy scores (with the help of google) have usually been <100 (and, when I try, normally below median), although this does not take into account the +20 hint-penalty I'm including here. There have been a few that I have solved in <10, although fairly rarely.\n\nIf I bet on this market, I will do so before entering any guesses in the redactle, although I may glance over the article beforehand. There may be some time between when I solve the redactle and the closing of the market.\n\nJun 11, 12:13pm: Actually, i am refraining from betting on this market, as it may incentivise certain guessing behaviors on my part that are not so good\n\nJun 11, 12:15pm: i do get frustrated as more guesses are plugged in and i think less carefully.\n\nJun 11, 12:35pm: ok, today was awful. since no one has bet yet, i'm just going to use tomorrow's.\n\nJun 11, 10:21pm: iff no one bets, i will farm for manna and throw it into a long term market.\n\nJun 11, 10:22pm: eh, maybe i won't farm for manna. late night ethical dilemmas. up in the air.\n\nJun 12, 4:48pm: technically 5 (or 6 because I was silly and tried plugging the two words in at once...) + 20 = 25.5. Will leave open for the first person who wants to bet it down to the proper percentage."

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9230769230769231, "platformFee": 0.15384615384615385, "liquidityFee": 0.9230769230769231}

0

1655082361568

100.92307692307692

1

1655078805087

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

1

0

0.5

1655078803573

0.25

0.7982595894091774

aQFWY9QZS4072Otjhdcf

{"NO": 7558.588944748819, "YES": 582.3148442894592}

1

will-jd-vance-win-the-ohio-senate-s

23733.522652185613

Will JD Vance win the Ohio Senate seat?

1667969940000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.8020284855854909

True

basic

YES

public

1654968100852

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if JD Vance defeats Tim Ryan in 2022 Ohio Senate race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 10, 9:24pm: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/9fkQ9Vwx-i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 157.5517238146154, "platformFee": 0.4049802296558165, "liquidityFee": 2.4298813779348984}

0

1668003306388

1285.7972071291604

BTE

1668013483060

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

145

0

1

122

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529432176}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494739}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxl...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "magaland", "us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1667968621695

1668013479014

0.9809018438371744

A4arS63w90HzT9hdKw6T

i-will-select-as-correct-all-answer-56f98d04fce5

1197.2420414860105

I will select as correct all answer choices between 1% and 5%.

1655611140000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.654951450655207

True

play

MKT

public

1654969997410

Bionic

20 choices max. Ignore the description above. To be clear, all selected choices will resolve at an equal percentage!

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 31.89405129724291, "platformFee": 7.973512824310728, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655611439918

1880.0000000000016

BionicD0LPH1N

1655611423396

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ecae321a917f", "prob": 0.006610126347336444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.025797310271437817, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.8768981778159968, "textFts": "", "contractId": "A4arS63w90HzT9hdKw6T", "createdTime": 1654969997597, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1655611139686

1655611423043

{"0ad07390f0fc": 3.928783483466131, "21ae14d37ab0": 4.355960978765726, "25d005d8bb9e": 3.970244528320384, "2c142d8837e0": 4.031004742205614, "334410f6f5b6": 5.097298353413389, "3decf55f4fd2": 3.9415253497812324, "5546ffa4df7d": 4.061217981093365, "577408bea22e": 4.33766321742194, "5a117be047df": 4.192702876944605, "690...

True

0.4644798654475928

hs1ntQRzKlRCBt6MPg0p

{"NO": 30.905427386249443, "YES": 511.384844230645}

0

will-any-shenanigans-ensue-if-manif

1506.7091152711362

Will shenanigans ensue if Manifold switches from append-only descriptions to edit history available?

1661100056017

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

3.4413859750469125

True

play

NO

public

1654970946183

Daniel Reeves

Trusting everyone's good faith is working so well that it would be nice to let market creators edit their descriptions. We'd want to make edit history public like Facebook does. I predict this will be much nicer and have no downside any time soon. This market is to see if I'm right. It's ultimately an "if we do this, ...

BINARY

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0

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0

1661100056017

107.2220716999067

dreev

1661100050383

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

15

0

0.5

1660951402106

1661100045963

0.0965935017530434

sqP18uU1t0VxAlWPQGFH

what-percentage-of-people-who-under

58

What percentage of people who undergo laser-eye surgery view it as a major negative turning point in their life?

1657609140000

Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.88930496476278

True

play

MKT

public

1654971449265

RoboTeddy

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-i-get-lasik-by-the-end-of-the How to participate in this market: - Leave a response with your estimated probability and an argument for why it's the correct probability. - I'll resolve the market to the the most compelling argument. By "major negative turning point"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.64, "platformFee": 1.16, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657684341386

340

TedSuzman

1657605660939

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454886}]

["technology-default"]

1657605659507

1657519979202

{"4a1c9103bd04": 65, "bbac50ff657d": 35}

True

0.49984777133363134

QYCVMkIahtJZWvyDuwQ4

{"NO": 95.9198944317987, "YES": 105.91958464053238}

1

will-norway-beat-sweden-in-sundays

14

Will Norway beat Sweden in Sunday's Nations League game?

1655049600000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.7580263674581795

True

play

YES

public

1654973949140

John Roxton

This question resolves YES if Norway beats Sweden in the Nations League game on Sunday 12th June, and NO in all other cases. Jun 12, 7:06pm: Norway 3 Sweden 2

BINARY

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1655057245916

100.39714194810728

JohnRoxton

1655027301822

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

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0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401857}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655027300484

0.47507675404282684

K68DmID2ovmQrQhrn2s1

stranger-things-s4-who-will-die-fir

196.42183308399453

[Stranger Things S4] who will die first?

1656540000000

hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.818180497095935

True

play

CANCEL

public

1654974472740

Warty

who from the list below will die first in Stranger Things season 4 volume 2? (IMPORTANT: the answers needs to be formatted to avoid non-consensual spoiling. It will look something like "potential spoiler, visit market page to see---[here fill with hyphens]---[answer]", I'll try to provide an example) Joyce, Hopper, M...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701733263936

539.9999999999999

warty

1701649544225

0

https://firebasestorage.…fed-6ca5ba3a485c

3

0

ANYONE

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1

3

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542967}]

["culture-default"]

1655821949077

1701649543521

True

0.4837754830975831

chfmbBG2MWCx6P8bpTHg

{"NO": 16.045826369059256, "YES": 774.6313506143614}

0

will-stephen-grugett-be-cancelled-b

1005.5051046441126

Will Stephen Grugett be cancelled by July 15 2022

1657947540000

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

0

4.324980790128897

True

play

NO

public

1654980997754

Cedar

BINARY

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0

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0

1657994468138

102.58460484901933

Cedar

1657944037443

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

10

0

1

0.5

1657944037291

1655148257889

0.01904243441848956

0.49015351770975435

ZHVre2SMnplW7bDatQil

{"NO": 32.286571328918725, "YES": 358.5684589518213}

0

i-will-resolve-this-no

259

I will resolve this NO

1654982086344

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

3.3597794699442076

True

play

NO

public

1654982034683

Matt P

I'm gonna do it!

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5892462890721504, "platformFee": 0.43154104817869177, "liquidityFee": 2.5892462890721504}

0

1654982086344

102.58924628907214

MattP

1654982063172

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

0

0.5

1654982062990

0.5

PMzxs1NZ9vy04utj6CaU

free-money-for-me

11

Free money for me

1654982167593

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.985601068603798

True

play

6c4831b9c39b

public

1654982066931

Mr Stone

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.4, "platformFee": 1.1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654982167593

260

stone

1654982123665

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

3

0

ANYONE

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1654982123505

{"6c4831b9c39b": 100}

True

0.49315675537666775

9Rtq2SUzFTV6mPQCOckH

{"NO": 14.395026845313268, "YES": 815.5416994387176}

0

will-a-tweet-about-gender-ratios-on

1001.1360361433835

Will a tweet about gender ratios on manifold markets reach more than 1k likes by Jul 15

1657947540000

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

0

4.4312783857414555

True

play

NO

public

1654982657557

Cedar

Is meme. Pls bet

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.053914919737011, "platformFee": 0.4542937165052886, "liquidityFee": 2.7257622990317314}

0

1657994445518

102.72576229903173

Cedar

1657944008245

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

12

0

1

0.5

1657944006957

1655831533581

0.01688426953792588

0.5129548681366938

mwdtEU9MeVOw6JP12Qo4

{"NO": 1765.9467519998364, "YES": 6.303710580242683}

1

test-5f942b8a6a1d

1666

test

1654982939002

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

5.406785893628287

True

play

YES

public

1654982845732

Duncn

test; no touchy.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1654982939002

100.31948800098186

Duncn

1654982933589

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

1

0

0.5

1654982932355

0.5

0.4993899597813844

Ej2WoCEHwPgWLrCTCWRk

{"NO": 79.35589979129797, "YES": 129.87583048053514}

0.39

q2-2022-us-nominal-gdp-growth-rate

30

Q2 2022 US Nominal GDP Growth Rate (annualized)

1658984340000

rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73

cpmm-1

0

2.773380181661429

True

play

MKT

public

1654983805620

Wilson Kime

This question will resolve using the PROB resolution mapping between 0 and 20 percentage points for Q2 annualized growth as released in the Advance Q2 estimate released at the end of July and referenced in this chart series (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1Q027SBEA) titled GDP Percent Change from Preceding Pe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.74501711678899, "platformFee": 0.12416951946483165, "liquidityFee": 0.74501711678899}

0

1659019908621

100.74501711678899

wilsonkime

1655077034163

0

https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776

1

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566989}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1654987731052

1655077032093

0.39

0.49979211585619804

VLMaxPYEifPNgG9PVgbE

{"NO": 70.26798867327247, "YES": 155.15072360582965}

0.32

how-many-appointments-will-it-take

154.23844209541318

How many appointments will it take to bank 30 attempts worth of sperm? (100%=31)

1658527522880

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.765352074586022

True

play

MKT

public

1654984059866

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will update with number of appointments and number of attempts banked as it goes. I will resolve to to a probability of (# appointments) / 31 Jun 14, 12:56am: after 1 appointment, 3.5 attempts have been scored. Floor probability is now 3.2% Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1658527522880

102.19828700451053

LivInTheLookingGlass

1658121266410

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

2

0

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549865}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073373977}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k1...

["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"]

0.5

1658121265113

1655961544862

0.32

0.49578707934656074

VBe72sR9rt7YiOanoHd6

{"NO": 53.05856129685915, "YES": 199.79999999999998}

0

will-this-experimental-test-questio

100

Will this experimental test question resolve yes?

1654984383930

WfAFLEM2pTShXSfpJjhnNluUpHr1

cpmm-1

0

2.9416697102234606

True

play

NO

public

1654984336110

Drake Thomas

trying to figure out market creation behavior, please ignore

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2, "platformFee": 0.2, "liquidityFee": 1.2}

0

1654984383930

101.2

maskedtorah

1654984353935

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhelGXaiOT8Yez0EGWzGxGeX1XnQrI3yt28I-9t0Q=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1654984353739

0.5

0.5157710219899

A60LuMysuM4leP8j3qOt

{"NO": 186.64571576825074, "YES": 107.0480784289576}

0.6500000000000001

will-the-5-year-survival-rate-of-gl

87.54542058795428

Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032?

1971230340000

NLGIaq3qHfSKobTBzX09AqjR1Lg1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1654993113032

Biren Dave

The 5 year survival rate for GBM was reported to be 6.8% by the National Brain Tumor Society (https://braintumor.org/take-action/about-gbm/)

BINARY

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0

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140.27149321266967

BirenDave

1709254383129

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzuY7JLptaT5x7a6JjWBXfXY96j5gOET0yarkH1A=s96-c

4

0

4

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523972}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1658529537592}]

["researchbet", "science-default"]

0.5

1686152491420

1709254382553

0.5132786339805233

M3ffXF5iRRzhBw6uzHNc

{"NO": 2828.9659438671565, "YES": 3.9440448256270653}

1

v

2729

v

1654996965577

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.386522675137478

True

play

YES

public

1654996948614

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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0

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1654996965577

100.20433679705876

Electricitypipe

1654996962424

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1654996960841

0.5