CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

dcIJ0NowKD9OI3FARUPp

are-free-response-markets-are-more

1

Are free response markets are more effective way to get free money?

1654997257382

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cpmm-multi-1

0

5.01564734330884

True

play

47503bb19ca2

public

1654997229209

Isaac King

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1654997257382

240

IsaacKing

1654997247945

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b28c6af4bb91", "prob": 0.9802960494069209, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.35542839821462, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.6704441108041119, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dcIJ0NowKD9OI3FARUPp", "createdTime": 1654997229324, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1654997247767

{"47503bb19ca2": 100}

True

0.4054729631620398

4JcUtvapX7OWRxuWwYOB

{"NO": 87.72377965517437, "YES": 1466.1666758854712}

0

will-more-than-630-people-have-gone

1967.6546954917965

Will more than 630 people have gone to space by the end of 2022?

1672549260000

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

cpmm-1

0

1.9872531099613004

True

play

NO

public

1654997274393

Andrew G

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if 630 people have gone to space by the end of 2022, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travellers_by_first_flight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "a...

BINARY

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AndrewG

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0

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443480}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917859}]

["technology-default", "space"]

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False

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{"NO": 133.74550711302234, "YES": 75.63277213992534}

1

when-closed-will-the-prob-be-odd

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When closed, will the prob be odd?

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cpmm-1

0

2.814058372856212

True

play

YES

public

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Undox

Resolves YES if prob is 1%,3%,5%,7%, etc. NO otherwise. This is the prob as shown in the UI, rounded to the nearest %, where 0.5 rounds up to 1 for example.

BINARY

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0

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100.00453844112963

Undox

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0.5

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{"NO": 110.82698019434302, "YES": 99.44667155196063}

0

will-a-popular-yesno-market-have-at

330.32676077457677

Will a popular yes/no market have at least M$5000 liquidity pool at end of June?

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cpmm-1

0

2.677753861022209

True

play

NO

public

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Jack

At a semi-random time on 6/30, I will check the first 12 open markets by 24 hour volume, and find the largest liquidity pool among the yes/no markets. Resolves YES if >= M$5000, NO if less. Resolves N/A if liquidity pool data is no longer available for some reason. Note that this will still resolve yes/no even if liqu...

BINARY

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0

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jack

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{"NO": 399.6633133715491, "YES": 25.697852333821352}

1

will-housing-prices-in-austin-tx-fa

996.4310073955078

Will housing prices in Austin, TX fall in 2022?

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cpmm-1

0

3.6117850859938136

True

play

YES

public

1655004714143

Gabriel Bodeen

This question will resolve YES if the Zillow Home Price Index for Austin, TX goes below $680k before the end of the year. https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx/home-values/

BINARY

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GabrielBodeen

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569486}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769992}]

["economics-default", "housing-markets"]

0.5

1667245271663

1672609616531

0.94

zwDyyRDsEPD8pooWoGsa

what-user-will-bet-the-most-in-this

271114.750243509

What user will bet the most in this market?

1655535540000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.623651900255645

True

play

ca52acc6952b

public

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SneakySly

The winning answer will contain the username of the person who bets the most in this market. One username per answer. If two answers contain the same username, the answer with the higher % bet will be chosen. Jun 13, 5:38pm: RULES UPDATE: If two answers contain the same username, the OLDER answer will be chosen! This...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1655539165768

1660.0000000000002

SneakySly

1655539212651

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19

0

ANYONE

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1

1655535536569

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{"ca52acc6952b": 100}

True

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LqlrkaqBRYegNiC9Dm5G

{"NO": 39.86809948846917, "YES": 288.60929734127905}

0

poll-should-we-remove-being-able-to

274.5543497369581

POLL: Should we remove being able to bet on your own free markets?

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cpmm-1

0

3.138488700359789

True

play

NO

public

1655025948348

^,^ Épi

This is a poll. Please vote YES, NO or ABSTAIN in capital letters at the beginning of your post (you may post again to change your vote) This market will resolve to YES if a majority of voters vote YES, NO if a majority of voters vote no, and PROB 50% in case of a tie. The question was simplified for the title, the ac...

BINARY

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epiphanie_gedeon

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1

0.5

1655647478124

1655730213060

0.11781589117912988

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who-will-win-taskmaster-champion-of

205

Who will win Taskmaster Champion of Champions 2?

1655899200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.766695987472906

True

play

d77baefad850

public

1655036187936

N.C. Young

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.52, "platformFee": 2.63, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657074589432

580.0000000000001

NcyRocks

1655789238736

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

6

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ANYONE

[{"id": "aea9513a3b02", "prob": 0.10749798441279226, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.979464206503942, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.03950157449898, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nlSJLBrJKvBMMGtrbfz8", "createdTime": 1655036188056, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

https://firebasestorage.…3fd-d0ff07f49477

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547507}]

["culture-default"]

1655789236967

{"d77baefad850": 100}

True

kc8mYpPpyw3KlHgHLRrM

what-features-will-manifold-markets

709.9272989847105

What features will Manifold Markets add in June 2022?

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fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.685023069206526

True

play

MKT

public

1655036255582

N.C. Young

Not including features already implemented at opening time. Something of an experiment to see how well free response markets work when some options are already decided.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.419927224864861, "platformFee": 1.6049818062162153, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656714634882

1160

NcyRocks

1656547293304

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f7288328471c", "prob": 0.020999565337520627, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.21089545157875658, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.831952968809382, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kc8mYpPpyw3KlHgHLRrM", "createdTime": 1655036255826, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

https://firebasestorage.…539-e55f82b9c909

1656547292093

1656544848655

{"246a41df47c2": 20, "25753a24bf89": 20, "b48f3dd90223": 20, "e34b3fd132fc": 20, "e7f5b9ed7afa": 20}

True

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which-company-will-win-the-selfdriv

927.2105045911662

Which company will win the self-driving car race?

1893535140000

0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1655037897017

colorednoise

Which company will be the first to release a self-driving car that has above 5% market share (among all cars on the road)?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.802417081773485, "platformFee": 0.8818596473951279, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

colorednoise

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27

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "953f53f452c3", "prob": 0.05097213910776198, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.194090737279556, "userId": "0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 96.70649315421747, "textFts": "", "contractId": "N8qaqENnsLCPEVNP3JOJ", "createdTime": 1655037897096, "probChanges": {"day": 0.021483951284...

12

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQ...

["technology-default", "ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "automotive", "selfdriving-vehicles"]

1718343271996

1711564079352

False

True

0.6548361019231366

n59FhxTAP5JpOYZ9zSaa

{"NO": 247.4213023534917, "YES": 77.22271563481257}

0.8587279267391333

is-the-transcript-of-a-conversation

928.7177216837204

Is the transcript of a conversation with LaMDA real?

1672527540000

W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2

cpmm-1

0

2.9250893315754514

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655039624684

Franek Żak

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient\n\nI will resolve using my best judgement based on available evidence (incl. statements from google, any other google engineers, etc.), on whether or not the transcript linked above has been significantly altered/manipulated above what is mentioned in the article. If I cannot determine the answer to my satisfaction (aiming for 95% confidence), I will resolve N/A.\n\nJun 12, 4:09pm: Correct link: https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917"

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672600489631

170.93252543808916

FranekZak

1672600487095

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c

18

0

1

18

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453790}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588739}]

["ai", "technology-default"]

0.5

1672524910060

1672600482040

0.86

0.5

fW56ZprbWAAEZeHrX366

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

do-colorlss-gren-ideas-slp-furiousl

0

Do colorlss gren ideas slp furiously

1655041331748

pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655041321586

samanddeanus

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1655041331748

100

samanddeanus

1655041321586

0

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0

0.5

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{"NO": 147.30935844124843, "YES": 428.3977515427424}

0.21385138652617638

will-the-hetchy-hetchy-aqueducts-be

210.0754645224011

Will the Hetchy Hetchy aqueducts be significantly sabotaged by Dec. 2030?

1925020740000

s3ksA5chttgb3NKRb1WGAabpeWB2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655044718317

C.J. Jameson

If there's a 48 hour or longer unplanned disruption to 2 or more of the Hetch Hetchy aqueducts due to adverse intentional human action

BINARY

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0

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0

241.84615384615384

cjcjameson

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4

0

2

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415018}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1683288902512

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when-will-basic-post-scarcity-econo

354.20738623098026

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

1924988340000

iwvsGe3O54QNJDUIkRITGTXFkyj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655045759873

Lorenzo Pieri

Let's define a Basic Post Scarcity Economy as an economic system in which all the basic necessities are provided for free, without requiring any kind of labour in exchange. In this economy working it's entirely optional during the entire lifetime. It is expected that such a lifestyle can be enabled by a widespread auto...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1000

LorenzoPieri

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0

12

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ANYONE

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12

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565077}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444027}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", ...

["technology-default", "economics-default", "futurism", "ancient-markets"]

1716841003956

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True

0.49436823442369593

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{"NO": 19.134408904212563, "YES": 626.0233066853712}

0

will-spacex-attempt-to-launch-stars

770.2619593763793

Will SpaceX attempt to launch Starship within a month of receiving FAA approval?

1657771140000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

3.9922820462006574

True

play

NO

public

1655048982668

Bolton Bailey

This question resolves to YES if, within a month of receiving environmental approval from the FAA, SpaceX attempts to launch Starship. To count as a launch it has to either lift off, or blow up on the pad, it doesn't necessarily have to get to orbit. If FAA says that it will not approve the launch, or if it delays appr...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 7.031100534946616, "platformFee": 0.6138863110416699, "liquidityFee": 3.68331786625002}

0

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BoltonBailey

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0

1

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

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0.029016991725196638

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{"NO": 297.74956578572096, "YES": 7166.807890251769}

0

will-the-starship-orbital-test-flig

12891.702407705783

Will the Starship orbital test flight be successful?

1681998023900

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cpmm-1

0

0.5903818181317777

True

basic

NO

public

1655049800254

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if the [planned orbital test flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_orbital_test_flight) for Starship happens and the spacecraft indeed lands in the Pacific ocean near Kauai. For the purposes of this question, th...

BINARY

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BoltonBailey

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[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5M...

["technology-default", "spacex", "space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1681997965187

1681998023599

0.04

0.4999674232917523

PuSUOGgp9aG0vNYOdztU

{"NO": 87.80307253932041, "YES": 114.54417647142003}

0.33

what-of-the-commenters-will-prefer

15

What % of the commenters will prefer the Tajik alphabet over the Persian alphabet?

1655697540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.7757223716976203

True

play

MKT

public

1655049852677

Enopoletus Harding

See links: https://persianlanguageonline.com/iskandar-ding-introduction-to-tajik-persian-1-the-alphabet/ https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Persian/Alphabet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx3HTtEB_BM&t=210s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlbGLYyWHQs Resolves to %. Vote in comments.

BINARY

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0

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0

1655736285129

100.14268727705112

EnopoletusHarding

1655679787752

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

2

0

1

0.5

1655679787592

1655679781230

0.33

pUlOKrf2IqswAShNe06p

who-will-be-time-magazine-person-of

8872.277778248063

Who will be Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2022?

1670418834165

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.621653735973902

True

play

fc1ebd958020

public

1655050791036

Brian T. Edwards

Market closes when Time announces their selection. Jun 15, 12:40am: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0087305520673366, "platformFee": 0.7521826380168342, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670418834165

2240.000000000001

BTE

1670418807739

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

54

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "117590044d0d", "prob": 0.00017187403073405, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00012122140648894782, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7051709392022321, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pUlOKrf2IqswAShNe06p", "createdTime": 1655050791138, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

54

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547662}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime": 1669565218566}]

["culture-default", "time-person-of-the-year"]

1670418807569

1670340780576

{"fc1ebd958020": 100}

True

g8gtnWn8hbkZYduCtFJa

which-wst-account-will-post-the-mos

181.56587631639962

Which WST account will post the most Tweets?

1655661720000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.799509229941029

True

play

8abd2e047fe0

public

1655051734902

Duncn

As per the "Official Weird Sun Twitter" list (https://twitter.com/i/lists/1374204345781268482), which account will have posted the most tweets? I will look at the last 20 Weird Sun Tweets (ignoring retweets), going back to the last 30 if a tie-breaker is needed. Note that this list excludes accounts such as Automation ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1655672611163

360

Duncn

1655660023264

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fff85d4ce0ae", "prob": 0.16466386741408504, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.77299899137538, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.50522852233692, "textFts": "", "contractId": "g8gtnWn8hbkZYduCtFJa", "createdTime": 1655051735131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546462}]

["culture-default"]

1655660022007

{"8abd2e047fe0": 100}

True

eE5WYGurRrbbPTBaXpcI

in-mistborn-era-2-who-is-geryy

800.4904323942583

In Mistborn Era 2, who is [Geryy]?

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.670260693572041

True

play

931ee8a400e6

public

1655056333781

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Trell", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": "? Will we find out?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.17228464955259712, "platformFee": 0.04307116238814928, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672555118675

680

LivInTheLookingGlass

1672555104716

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bc42b98d0d5b", "prob": 0.012869033733962627, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12408023400260063, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.517687482802806, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eE5WYGurRrbbPTBaXpcI", "createdTime": 1655056333948, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

7

[{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669223485392}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492241}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "...

["cosmere", "books", "olivia", "fiction"]

1671726400257

1672555102613

{"931ee8a400e6": 100}

True

0.5062482238055724

ocUE2UZjMtuSZNjirdbx

{"NO": 243.97278139908366, "YES": 46.82684069653131}

1

will-nasa-release-an-image-taken-by

261.17421363330084

Will NASA release an image taken by the James Webb Telescope in the month of July 2022?

1656370740000

TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2

cpmm-1

0

2.9930504940985947

True

play

YES

public

1655058300330

Danny Kim

The question will resolve as "Yes" if NASA release a photo taken by the James Webb Telescope in the month of July 2022, "No" otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2761272504470815, "platformFee": 0.4846244565663214, "liquidityFee": 2.907746739397929}

0

1657674514334

102.90774673939791

DannyKim

1656346895933

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwF6WBu3EFkk8aLyOnuxCRnOkUjbRCTwWmoMZRSVg=s96-c

11

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533890}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1656346895791

1656262164039

0.8423202628925732

0.5098263063391466

K7GlN9nizcajcZBZ6Gcc

{"NO": 449.8352941176471, "YES": 24.304935440604744}

0.9506173447166923

a-share-of-lu1903451901-ing-global

350

A share of LU1903451901 (ING Global Index Portfolio Aggressive) will be worth at least 70% of its current value by the end of this year?

1663106238870

fXISPSVBuEXFFroquX7zz2xPDcn1

cpmm-1

0

3.723287491565602

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655062656281

ozan

This question resolves to yes if LU1903451901 (ING Global Index Portfolio Aggressive) is worth at least €8.932 by the end of the year. Current value is €12.76, according to morningstar.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1663106238870

100.98823529411764

ozan

1660944018404

0

https://firebasestorage.…785-d3f7dd4475da

2

0

3

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568465}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1660944018328

0.9506173447166923

0.5004584873238254

zZX31icYOp2H60Pd8x55

{"NO": 118.40733042963402, "YES": 86.7922144375714}

1

will-denmark-beat-austria-in-monday

31.226221827013433

Will Denmark beat Austria in Monday's Nations League game?

1655145900000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.7577074005881865

True

play

YES

public

1655064387872

John Roxton

This market resolves YES if Denmark beats Austria in the Nations League game on Monday 13th June, and NO in all other cases. Jun 13, 10:16pm: Denmark 2 Austria 0

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.680143539803351, "platformFee": 0.11335725663389185, "liquidityFee": 0.680143539803351}

0

1655155012231

100.68014353980334

JohnRoxton

1655137316149

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

4

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409968}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655137314783

0.5774825945932094

0.5143728014690585

KOrVnlyDKE0o33JvvEwD

{"NO": 632.7640244484511, "YES": 18.28682937600714}

1

i-will-resolve-this-question-yes-57f6b2cdcd71

533

I will resolve this question YES.

1655074800000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.129624005202571

True

play

YES

public

1655064925257

Matt P

Get dat free liquidity in your bank account.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4158533092936096, "platformFee": 0.235975551548935, "liquidityFee": 1.4158533092936096}

0

1655075411899

101.41585330929361

MattP

1655068490951

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

5

0

0.5

1655068490769

0.9734398358965376

2wohM7CxoLzCDxkLWySs

i-feel-like-missing-out-if-i-dont-d

10

I feel like missing out if I don't do this.

1655065708946

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.988398938453521

True

play

d7e5f48c379d

public

1655065677074

Mr Stone

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655065708946

240

stone

1655065700122

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9fcda4376b40", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.89406337102493, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.08775330791523, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2wohM7CxoLzCDxkLWySs", "createdTime": 1655065677197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1655065699539

{"d7e5f48c379d": 100}

True

uWL54Hl2j6ti9i3sH1bZ

ive-just-generated-a-random-number-da8f285fb2fa

161.83498728988303

I've just generated a random number between 1 and 10. What is it?

1655092800000

Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.793104722692816

True

play

39ac74c8e92b

public

1655066725287

Kronopath

Open until this evening only! And to prove I actually generated it ahead of time, here's a hash of (an obfuscated version of) the answer: a78224bb172e18dc95ef7987b5e578de76b91522c77e29ff9d9e00b89c9e1c49 (The range is inclusive of both 1 and 10.)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.64660050840468, "platformFee": 2.41165012710117, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655096433471

859.9999999999999

Kronopath

1655171847443

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2544cc7f0c04", "prob": 0.152291370175999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.736702894412479, "userId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.366194721771553, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uWL54Hl2j6ti9i3sH1bZ", "createdTime": 1655066725359, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

1655075906907

1655171845608

{"39ac74c8e92b": 100}

True

0.4979857151384812

HfiY3EvVeuwDBBT4FIvB

{"NO": 19.593233887113232, "YES": 545.3022467733799}

0

will-deisseroth-hegemann-and-oester

654.2730403985569

Will Deisseroth, Hegemann and Oesterhelt win the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine for discovery and development of optogenetics?

1664798615630

NLGIaq3qHfSKobTBzX09AqjR1Lg1

cpmm-1

0

2.2833247100073866

True

play

NO

public

1655066891629

Biren Dave

Optogenetics is the modulation of neuronal activity using light. Among numerous other awards, the discovered has been awarded the Albert Lasker Award for Basic Medical Research in 2021. About 50% of Lasker winners have gone on to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine. The 2022 Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine will...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3378807231276055, "platformFee": 0.2229801205212676, "liquidityFee": 1.3378807231276055}

0

1664798615630

101.3378807231276

BirenDave

1664798678105

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzuY7JLptaT5x7a6JjWBXfXY96j5gOET0yarkH1A=s96-c

8

0

10

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526618}, {"name": "Nobel Prizes", "slug": "academic-awards", "groupId": "gF0c1fO8ozQYyctfQ5cT", "createdTime": 1658529550512}]

["academic-awards", "science-default"]

0.5

1664797815107

1664798672077

0.034415947450994515

0.5

SeA6lpy1aHAlbM1jMYY8

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

what-novel-will-win-the-hugo-award

0

What novel will win the Hugo award in 2022?

1655068307953

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655068296846

Forrest

https://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2022-hugo-awards/ Jun 12, 5:12pm: Created this as the wrong kind of market; resolved N/A as soon as I noticed and before any trades could be made.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655068307953

100

Forrest

1670771579408

0

https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

0

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544331}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1670771576421

0.5

0.5191956354719962

atpWE1qeuqCaxjy6oNbc

{"NO": 199.44176502474028, "YES": 61.88875505827222}

1

will-celsius-crash-as-terra-luna-di

661.5400337268941

Will Celsius crash, as Terra Luna did, by the end of 2022?

1657873969781

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.7826660967610586

True

play

YES

public

1655068562239

John Roxton

Last month, the Terra Luna cypto crashed to an all-time low and its UST stablecoin lost its peg; it is now regarded by many as a revealed ponzi scheme. A number of commentators have speculated that the Celsius Network was a feeder fund for the same ponzi scheme and is likely to suffer the same fate in the near future, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.1681765123869035, "platformFee": 0.7501255863584615, "liquidityFee": 4.50075351815077}

0

1657873969781

104.50075351815073

JohnRoxton

1657873965633

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

16

0

0.5

1657863311046

1657873960599

0.7767808235179472

BjEkqhjQqXVFA8nZBMxD

who-will-be-top-of-the-top-bettors

207

Who will be top of the "Top bettors" leaderboard at the end of the month?

1656658740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.765780791728749

True

play

28731941849c

public

1655068721230

SneakySly

Which user will have the top spot on the "Top bettors" leaderboard at the end of the month?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.88, "platformFee": 2.97, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656695579980

360

SneakySly

1656684442942

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f4af94177edc", "prob": 0.10610192150579846, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.117630280373068, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.115523349115065, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BjEkqhjQqXVFA8nZBMxD", "createdTime": 1655068721338, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1656658694266

1656684442553

{"28731941849c": 100}

True

0.5112073098832124

tCadcXAKZAlBioCsVGPL

{"NO": 431.402979165544, "YES": 27.59276265181103}

1

will-i-do-at-least-12-of-16-items-o

335

Will I do at least 12 (of 16) items on my todo list by the end of the day?

1655090362972

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

3.540615790218119

True

play

YES

public

1655077058130

Ben

I have a todo list with 16 uncompleted items on it. This resolves YES if I complete 12 or more of those items. Tasks range in complexity from accomplishable in <2 min to ~30 min

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.9949787881623458, "platformFee": 0.49916313136039103, "liquidityFee": 2.9949787881623458}

0

1655090362972

102.99497878816233

bcongdon

1655090306287

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1655090304885

1655090288743

0.8644972874998971

0.5007542186629859

BXxMEWWPzygeumGzy1og

{"NO": 18.32823793856852, "YES": 562.4881255687873}

0

will-i-get-a-bench-press-estimatedo

578.7536424757274

Will I get a bench press estimated-one-rep-max of >=275lb by July 25th?

1658818740000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

4.052180595582571

True

play

NO

public

1655080583330

Joel Becker

See my bench press history here: https://joel-becker.shinyapps.io/life-dashboard/. It has been stuck on ~262 for around half a year. Also from website: estimated-one-rep-max is calculated as "weight * (1 + (reps / x))".

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.40713526031839, "platformFee": 0.1498172198994503, "liquidityFee": 0.8989033193967016}

0

1660264753060

100.8989033193967

JoelBecker

1660164668371

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

6

0

1

0.5

1658715346077

1660164667530

0.03164832125543469

0.498197960968242

iaGlKvP96VVxnKFHgais

{"NO": 69.41372141372142, "YES": 149.84615384615387}

0.26

testing-7a05d18a7cb7

50

Testing

1655082270159

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

2.8097738369474077

True

play

MKT

public

1655082230900

1

I will put any money gained from this into a market! Promise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9230769230769231, "platformFee": 0.15384615384615385, "liquidityFee": 0.9230769230769231}

0

1655082270159

100.92307692307692

1

1655082256945

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

1

0

0.5

1655082255447

0.26

0.5132952586685644

iHrJVM79ngyNfSIdh3Uz

{"NO": 2922.9669976217947, "YES": 3.817673420927748}

1

m

2823

m

1655083154681

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.3858431197907715

True

play

YES

public

1655083140618

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1655083154681

100.19801426923229

Electricitypipe

1655083150977

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1655083149521

0.5

0.5042129206534389

c2IomIfniA2YBqdC4LTc

{"NO": 199.79999999999998, "YES": 53.05856129685915}

1

this-is-just-a-test

100

This is just a test.

1655085711408

HhtMWYk2SFUGN0PNL77bA3ehYlj2

cpmm-1

0

2.9416697102234584

True

play

YES

public

1655085690292

Gabriel Bodeen

It looked as though I got a positive return for doing nothing. I know it's play money so that doesn't matter. I just want to confirm.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1999999999999997, "platformFee": 0.19999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 1.1999999999999997}

0

1655085711408

101.2

GabrielBodeen

1655085777144

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgtzWPWnczR7ZtksLjOyPOkLLtLWyeo8Q8vcA_eGA=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655085697959

1655085776898

0.5

0.49890322298286943

IfKN3XIrZ4deCym3CbqN

{"NO": 114.30693922405132, "YES": 204.98544882350564}

0.35699313913149294

will-my-first-ea-forum-comment-get

65

Will my first EA Forum comment get >33 karma?

1655092051200

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

2.0527183123195387

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655085714816

GeorgeVii

Before market close in 30 days. Comment in question: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8bqcRA4B9WzyxM9Yg/new-cause-area-bivalve-aquaculture?commentId=QNF53XcydvAihrRK3

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1655092051200

151.48734119139533

GeorgeVii

1655092043306

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

3

0

0.5

1655091482348

1655092041215

0.35699313913149294

0.4068933523609041

jaDJ5PrcU9tQWDhU2Ipc

{"NO": 9922.237476507258, "YES": 1.8309787855669128}

1

will-manifold-allow-editing-of-mark

10998.265676068228

Will Manifold allow editing of market descriptions?

1658435930773

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

3.8477250234136298

True

play

YES

public

1655086327728

Daniel Reeves

A Manifold founder said "we'd love to support direct description editing with edit history tracked [...] If anyone wants to take a stab at an open source contribution there, we'd be happy to shepherd it through". This market resolves to YES if that happens by the close date. Related market about whether anything bad ...

BINARY

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0

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0

1658435930773

334.9308594075344

dreev

1658450142895

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

14

0

0.5

1658435900738

1658450137841

0.9313997745412178

0.5123865300627841

pXzsaPGtkZbMrcaiDWyT

{"NO": 1099.9180327868853, "YES": 10.083330582140341}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-b512f2903463

1000

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655091067205

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

5.071977266241901

True

play

YES

public

1655091057646

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885184, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475308, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885184}

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1655091067205

100.49180327868852

unit_24601

1655091065352

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.5

1655091064046

0.5

0.512861409200769

mu5f47CWfCbTc5i4yoIV

{"NO": 1599.9416342412453, "YES": 6.953354397451491}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-5a6fc68171e9

1500

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655091094321

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

5.414008783369049

True

play

YES

public

1655091080091

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

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0

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1655091094321

100.35019455252917

PeterBerggrenf455

1655091091171

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655091090980

0.5

0.5112194584334281

1ouxBR9dZg710N87X2hu

{"NO": 649.8728323699422, "YES": 16.949855218195133}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-92befa8dd4a2

550

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655091116592

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

4.2316141120382715

True

play

YES

public

1655091107729

Say Jarva

BINARY

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0

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1655091116592

100.76300578034682

SayJarva

1655091114002

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655091113817

0.5

5I6pwpWq02YJVv1twqzS

i-will-select-all-answers-with-a-pr

98

I will select all answers with a prime probability.

1655679600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.839774262250697

True

play

MKT

public

1655091372113

Isaac King

When this market closes, I will select any answers that have a prime probability (rounded to the nearest integer) as equal-weight winners.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.96, "platformFee": 1.74, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655785449937

580

IsaacKing

1655679600073

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a48c13a56c6d", "prob": 0.2550760126517702, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.950781510621368, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.06026232361865, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5I6pwpWq02YJVv1twqzS", "createdTime": 1655091372283, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

1655679598856

1655173234183

{"0aa6bc9dfe86": 20, "7c8ac885a977": 20, "86c9f87a25e9": 20, "b89794647174": 20, "f5221a627e49": 20}

True

0.4019730498741328

hJxxMpgUIBY66Y2BH1uL

{"NO": 277.82300042082846, "YES": 729.0684670488289}

0

will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-3dd2f920b3e1

757.8478372400641

Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows adding liquidity by August 1st, 2022?

1659333540000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

0.9797633459743907

True

play

NO

public

1655093323937

Scott Lawrence

As usual for these sorts of questions, the API must be publicly documented on the official documentation page.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 24.42939822264316, "platformFee": 1.012655737069603, "liquidityFee": 6.0759344224176175}

0

1659426380301

406.07593442241756

ScottLawrence

1659319687057

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

7

0

1

0.5

1659319686934

1659052429448

0.2039098905934948

0.49698600936984544

KdJvSUPJvx7T4mnbviin

{"NO": 1.1026410124795802, "YES": 10623.767056289069}

0

will-covid-cases-increase-5-next-we

10819.768608125563

Will Covid cases increase >5% next week?

1655708340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.199768403739518

True

play

NO

public

1655094499752

Jack

Will the 7-day moving average of new Covid cases on 6/17 be more than 5% higher than the 7-day moving average on 6/10? Resolves based on data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The 7-day moving average for 6/10 is 108,548, so resolves YES if for 6/17 it's >113,975, NO otherwise. Background...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.387758100937145, "platformFee": 0.44009442272102084, "liquidityFee": 2.6405665363261246}

0

1655906230311

102.64056653632613

jack

1655906222642

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

8

0

1

0.5

1655694230989

1655906213286

0.00010253571590937995

0.5

eDqEFVOzYDHol6JOJpEq

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-a-charter-city-by-203

0

Will there be a Charter City by 2030?

1655111456251

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655111027410

Adrian

Will there be charter city, micronation, seasteading community, or similar new nation by the end of 2030? 1) Largely free from the laws of any existing country 2) Which did not exist in 2021 3) With a population of at least 5,000

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655111456251

100

ahalekelly

1655247168379

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

0

True

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419695}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1655247168039

0.5

0.5047115168619656

9G4PVahR39dvjAJNg4rb

{"NO": 300.060382998505, "YES": 37.618395558303504}

1

planecrash-will-pinar-think-things

394.9997976562771

[planecrash] Will Pinar think things through for herself before consulting Aspexia or acting outside Subirachs/Mailol's orders?

1655416879986

KV6q96Fl8JbXbfHXFeuA4q1Hss22

cpmm-1

0

3.1885519693591653

True

play

YES

public

1655119580762

Dark

Asmodia urged Pinar to think things through for herself, but Pinar was not instructed to do so by her superiors. If the text either explicitly shows her coming to her own conclusions or refers to her having done so off-screen before speaking to Aspexia or acting outside mailol/Subirachs orders, then the market will r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.09543148737281, "platformFee": 0.4355574214659824, "liquidityFee": 2.6133445287958947}

0

1655416879986

102.61334452879589

Dark

1655417055860

0

https://firebasestorage.…51f-ed51efef297e

10

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391232}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541694}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1655412973057

1655417053104

0.8904491508482476

0.5138126852284485

S2URf8BIKjRZ2NGJcDlF

{"NO": 1267.113536880583, "YES": 10.330998523743744}

1

will-blake-lemoine-be-fired-soon-fo

1498.5924947324525

Will Blake Lemoine be fired soon for doing AI ethics work?

1658539080000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

5.019078002564627

True

play

YES

public

1655124730801

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/may-be-fired-soon-for-doing-ai-ethics-work-802d8c474e66 Resolves Yes if & when I learn that he has been fired or has otherwise left Google/Alphabet. Resolves No if he is still working at Google/Alphabet at market ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.64333007598857, "platformFee": 0.6036327119944802, "liquidityFee": 3.62179627196688}

0

1658608102825

103.62179627196689

MartinRandall

1658539182448

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

18

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448673}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1658538550657

1658539177161

0.9923442467693353

0.5022650985978476

jyd6FRNEpABmZ6fCc7s4

{"NO": 207.96579979309, "YES": 51.31425586444284}

1

will-i-get-my-move-and-exercise-app

109

Will I get my Move and Exercise Apple Watch rings at least 6/7 times this week?

1655693541398

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.9543118613260084

True

play

YES

public

1655126716664

Charlie

I got them last week so this weeks goals increase to be the rounded-up version of my second-worst day last week. Last week’s goal (got all 7 days): Move: 370cal Exercise: 5min This week’s goal: Move: 420cal Exercise: 12min Jun 13, 2:19pm: almost certainly will get it today. Jun 13, 7:26pm: got it for Monday. J...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.275266667438104, "platformFee": 0.2482132921056135, "liquidityFee": 1.4892797526336807}

0

1655693541398

101.48927975263368

Charlie

1655602923381

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

3

0

[{"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm", "createdTime": 1664839983156}]

["charlies-weekly-health-goals"]

0.5

1655602922040

0.8035237987447316

yjXQsqu3dhz8TL3qikXq

what-will-manifold-groupscommunitie

3241.0827941152393

What will manifold groups/communities be called?

1655999063216

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.63263767531254

True

play

52f7ee670a97

public

1655130068704

Ian Philips

Conditional on a group organization feature being implemented (>90%), how will it be referenced in the ui?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 21.69454022074551, "platformFee": 5.423635055186377, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655999063216

1280

ian

1655996093487

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

16

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e984d384c7cd", "prob": 0.0012495669379376287, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0022730828174394205, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.8168233964724758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yjXQsqu3dhz8TL3qikXq", "createdTime": 1655130068787, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

[{"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1669080369330}]

["groups-suggestions"]

1655996092218

1655991706042

{"52f7ee670a97": 100}

True

0.4907934707390178

dK2oik2EgSMt31eGavjo

{"NO": 30.72787971834738, "YES": 372.61131540807327}

0

will-reading-towards-ineffective-al

470.13001077820127

Will reading "Towards Ineffective Altruism" change my mind?

1672556340000

9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2

cpmm-1

0

3.417095897430235

True

play

NO

public

1655132996936

extent_of_foxes

Article: https://reboothq.substack.com/p/ineffective-altruism?s=r When the article came out, I read this Twitter thread criticizing it but didn't read the article itself (yes, I'm embarrassed about that): https://mobile.twitter.com/ns_whit/status/1528813493532577792 . I don't remember the details. I'm going to read th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.398432785540396, "platformFee": 0.38559047283558734, "liquidityFee": 2.313542837013524}

0

1672569204873

102.31354283701351

extent_of_foxes

1667245318816

0

https://firebasestorage.…318-f4ea213ccb90

7

0

1

9

0.5

1667245318265

1655261362110

0.07

0.4995466467961067

nIb4XlHDplGIq3U8XA0y

{"NO": 18.403426641265224, "YES": 566.15429895939}

0

will-celsius-remove-its-pause-of-wi

490.2473705628099

Will Celsius remove its pause of withdrawals by July 14, 2022?

1657781940000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

4.051515059441526

True

play

NO

public

1655135499624

Ben

Resolves YES is Celsius resumes allowing withdrawals of assets by July 14. Resolves NO if withdrawals are resumed, but in a heavily restricted way (e.g. only allowing a small amount of assets to be withdrawn, or withdrawals at a mark down from the pre-freeze asset value)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.22513107118921, "platformFee": 0.15966162472449347, "liquidityFee": 0.9579697483469609}

0

1657800448340

100.95796974834695

bcongdon

1657832392091

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

8

0

1

0.5

1657779590725

1657832390691

0.031427403891917526

0.5115929935217781

TJ7JeQjZAK940F6QMIBT

{"NO": 2724.3105676704336, "YES": 4.684659437554956}

1

will-numerical-markets-be-brought-b

3506.3406780854925

Will numerical markets be brought back?

1657208996077

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

5.242047250931201

True

play

YES

public

1655136352370

Enopoletus Harding

Resolves Yes if Numerical markets are brought back by the end of the year, No if they are not.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 4.796826830630349, "platformFee": 0.4214810114683729, "liquidityFee": 2.5288860688102375}

0

1657208996077

102.52888606881025

EnopoletusHarding

1657208980713

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

14

0

0.5

1657208980578

1656797697565

0.9858236828172597

0.5115866606966173

dKICrExtT08auseuB9v7

{"NO": 214.6131580535818, "YES": 53.09102788025209}

1

i-will-call-my-doctor-and-get-my-ol

255

I will call my doctor and get my old medical records transferred

1655881140000

CB4w5sHsJxQyoyO3mESajTSTugC2

cpmm-1

0

2.915983077407661

True

play

YES

public

1655137045854

Jack2

#Personal #Commitments

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5008708599814433, "platformFee": 0.42648685257759034, "liquidityFee": 2.5589211154655422}

0

1655916225068

102.55892111546554

Jack2

1655874856193

0

https://firebasestorage.…56e-f3e0586e4104

8

0

1

0.5

1655874856038

0.8089472490177517

AipuWaNoJDOM24ihHoU7

whose-idea-from-ians-market-will-be

621.6702867789057

Whose idea from Ian's market will be used for naming manifold groups/communities when they are eventually implemented?

1656006435979

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.707125908619159

True

play

29fcbc09a59a

public

1655139005545

Matt P

I will resolve to the answer naming the user whose submission on Ian's question (linked below) ends up being used for naming manifold groups/communities. If multiple users submit the same thing, I'll resolve to the user who submitted it first. Same goes for this market; in the event of duplicates, I'll resolve to the a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.6061617071917444, "platformFee": 1.4015404267979361, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656006435979

420

MattP

1656006416480

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

6

0

ANYONE

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1656005376071

1656006412226

{"29fcbc09a59a": 100}

True

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{"NO": 91.94083588770496, "YES": 109.95475113122171}

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will-raymond-order-4-square-stuff-b

10

Will Raymond order 4 square stuff by tonight?

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cpmm-1

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2.765773451990327

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NO

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1655143737036

tenadome

This resolves to YES if Raymond orders 4 square stuff by 11:59 PM BST on 6/13/22.

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nmehndir

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will-i-still-be-actively-using-mani

1503.0186955772397

Will I still be actively using Manifold Markets at the end of 2022?

1672549200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

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3.4894291674934057

True

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YES

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1655146000831

Isaac King

"Actively using" will be resolved subjectively, by whether I still feel like a regular user of the site. If in December I've taken a short break but plan to return, that will still count as me being an active user. I will commit to resolve this market even if I have otherwise stopped using Manifold by then. (I have an...

BINARY

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145.31443529224853

IsaacKing

1672547895656

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1672547895523

1661759824211

0.97

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{"NO": 24.69139534906951, "YES": 427.8560948251776}

0

will-i-stream-again-this-month

632.4566249093647

Will I stream again this month?

1656543540000

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-1

0

3.6256694975427264

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NO

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1655147246714

David Chee

I use to stream full time before joining Manifold. I pretty much completely stopped streaming for the last couple of months. I am planning to stream a bit again as a hobby. Market will resolve as YES if I go live on Twitch sometime in the month of June. It would probably have to be this week as I'm going to Mexifold...

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1656873226482

102.28691679879512

SirSalty

1656663556641

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https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

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0.5529320033062749

will-karen-bass-win-the-los-angeles

70.19103073150808

Will Karen Bass win the Los Angeles mayoral Democratic primary?

1655783940000

oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43

cpmm-1

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2.748895093264717

True

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CANCEL

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1655148594828

Nick Hansen

Resolves to yes if the Los Angeles Times projects that Karen Bass has won the Democratic primary.

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1655821203617

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NickHansen

1655821204437

0

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0.5

1655743442926

1655821200084

0.5529320033062749

gyFzt5in8Ag30B5sNgmI

what-weekday-activities-will-we-do

590

What weekday activities will we do in Mexico City?

1656658740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.685030177699765

True

play

MKT

public

1655149309497

Austin

Looking for ideas on what fun things we can do during the weekdays and weeknights. Help us suggest things that would be fun for a group of between 5-20 people to do at night, or vote on the ones you would enjoy the most! More context: https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-people-will-stay-at-mexifo This market res...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1656718713827

900.0000000000002

Austin

1656639415875

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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ANYONE

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1

1656639415658

1655248685837

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0

will-boulder-air-be-smoky-tomorrow

162

Will Boulder air be smoky tomorrow?

1655253303535

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

2.9785736478904408

True

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NO

public

1655149924828

Scott Lawrence

Today when I walked outside I could smell smoke (apparently from a fire near Flagstaff). Will the same be true tomorrow? (If it's weak enough that I wouldn't notice without having been aware in advance, this will resolve NO.)

BINARY

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102.16001940869964

ScottLawrence

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0

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0

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1655253298395

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{"NO": 10104.023955499346, "YES": 13.567216064111957}

1

do-i-feel-alive-today-090967cad988

10183

Do I feel alive today?

1655151282977

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-1

0

2.977921903544442

True

play

YES

public

1655151063228

Trent Yazzo

BINARY

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0

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1655151282977

354.6970815861397

kazoo

1655151275343

0

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0

0.5

1655151273934

0.5

0.48653270661311515

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{"NO": 2.4747441663094243, "YES": 4514.978352776202}

0

do-i-feel-alive-today-125a84c3fd5d

4415

Do I feel alive today?

1655151378287

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

5.383495521938216

True

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NO

public

1655151330594

Predictor 🔥

BINARY

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0

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1655151378287

100.12988334279227

Predictor

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https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

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0

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1655151370752

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0.5060539401035724

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{"NO": 149.3524810002272, "YES": 72.7858797829332}

1

does-god-exist-27de9f867509

371

Does God exist?

1657781940000

bruka0HBvsUiPuqVOFOukxJtBJn2

cpmm-1

0

2.763107337016173

True

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YES

public

1655153324916

Mike Elias

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if this post (https://ideamarket.io/post/1) has an average rating above 50 at the closing time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 5, 11:06am: ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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0

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0

1657919538067

101.92509172699816

MikeElias

1657722923318

0

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0

1

0.5

1657722922026

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{"NO": 117.29026420526583, "YES": 707.6466340654513}

0

will-the-scientific-journal-nature

1079.67697685361

Will the scientific journal Nature retract an article for using deepfake data by the end of 2023?

1704085140000

NLGIaq3qHfSKobTBzX09AqjR1Lg1

cpmm-1

0

3.0005712689891113

True

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NO

public

1655153727310

Biren Dave

BINARY

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0

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BirenDave

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0

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["researchbet", "science-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1691770447748

1655154461679

0.04

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0.44174098836162506

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{"NO": 20.67893831503425, "YES": 958.8377330357101}

0

btc-will-finish-below-20000-usd-by

856.572110374119

BTC will finish below $20,000 USD by 23.59 UTC Monday, June 13, 2022

1655182500000

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

4.171035530265432

True

play

NO

public

1655154321582

Arwyn Hughes

Vote yes or no to see who agrees with this sentiment. Let's start easy to get some traffic.

BINARY

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ArwynHughes

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0

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0

1

0.5

1655181942212

1655154553539

0.016779005668448078

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a-math-game

155.73843618174607

A Math Game

1656140340000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.817616558899441

True

play

2539a169ef3f

public

1655154674775

SneakySly

Each answer should contain first an answer and second a mathematical operation I can enter into my basic computer calculator. For example: Answer: 1876 Operation: +656 At resolution I will perform all the operations on my calculator in order from highest bet to smallest bet. Then I will look for the closest *unique*...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.04, "platformFee": 2.26, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656194614028

580

SneakySly

1656194592685

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

11

0

ANYONE

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1

1655698700766

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{"2539a169ef3f": 100}

True

0.5389318598043652

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{"NO": 197.88177867728407, "YES": 68.51389303924806}

0

will-england-beat-hungary-in-tuesda

123

Will England beat Hungary in Tuesday's Nations League game?

1655232300000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

2.7109078482641538

True

play

NO

public

1655155098748

John Roxton

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61714683 England will make a late check on Phil Foden's fitness to see if he could play Tuesday's Nations League game with Hungary at Molineux. This market will resolve YES if England beats Hungary in the Nations League game on Tuesday 14th June, and NO in all other cases. Jun 14, ...

BINARY

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0

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1655240679187

112.14631467996588

JohnRoxton

1655205452271

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

3

0

1

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["sports-default"]

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1655205452061

0.7714781523422958

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{"NO": 1844.4966649833443, "YES": 765.5133084166633}

0.8906409541667243

will-putin-die-before-russia-pulls

3045.4883452022414

Will Putin die before Russia pulls out of Crimea?

1904147940000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

9.798049962704845

False

basic

public

1655156613334

Duncn

Will Putin's death happen before Russia is out of the Crimea?

BINARY

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0

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0

1000

Duncn

1713887793835

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

38

0

20

[{"name": "Putin Assassination Markets", "slug": "putin-assassination-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gA6JZ7T0ESAA2DhlKYTg", "createdTime": 1663395943404}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480321}, {"name": "How It ...

["politics-default", "putin-assassination-markets", "how-it-ends", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1713887787990

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{"NO": 97.48322751462672, "YES": 2416.322551608856}

0

kickstart-will-the-manifold-communi

3450.98993007356

[KICKSTART] Will the Manifold community pay M$250k to have Dark Mode?

1660460340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

1.625220684502231

True

play

NO

public

1655157749665

Austin

@NcyRocks has a proposed change to add Dark Mode to Manifold: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/488 You can play with it here: https://prod-git-fork-ncyrocks-dark-mode-mantic.vercel.app/ It's pretty cool! I'm tentatively in favor of shipping this. The main blocker is, members of the Manifold core team...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1660493968680

410.6696550596392

Austin

1660493942497

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

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18

0

1

[{"name": "Manifold Bounties", "slug": "manifold-bounties", "groupId": "977G2Xx33yCxI3wHgpsF", "createdTime": 1658529426933}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849879}]

["manifold-bounties", "predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

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{"NO": 61.92906829475934, "YES": 539.2596386352584}

0

will-turkey-and-greece-enter-armed

587.4340667024138

Will Turkey and Greece enter armed conflict over the Aegean islands in 2022?

1672552740000

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cpmm-1

0

3.704058366801866

True

play

NO

public

1655159173512

1

See: https://mobile.twitter.com/RTErdogan/status/1534956079544684548 https://greekreporter.com/2022/06/17/greece-turkey-reduce-tension/ unsure how reliable various greek->English news sources are but this seems to be an update

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1672599083180

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1

1672559786600

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

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0

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13

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1672373591051

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0.5078791560709436

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{"NO": 2418.105760692578, "YES": 5.0402001343770735}

1

will-there-be-15-women-infected-in

3108.580561454325

Will there be >15 women infected in the current monkeypox outbreak?

1659618062177

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

5.2595314746440955

True

play

YES

public

1655163403023

Tim P

Will I be aware of more than 15 females infected? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=0 Resolves no after closing(end 2023), or if the outbreak seems over. #Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science #Monkeypox #Covid

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1659618062177

102.61597553299322

TimP

1659617969445

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

10

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420835}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533816}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "...

["science-default", "world-default", "monkeypox", "medicine"]

0.5

1659617968034

1659617886907

0.9655535033259183

0.49960308933726694

KSlX28G4JrqCLlmg5i3u

{"NO": 20.285685532399796, "YES": 519.1362963988718}

0

will-me-having-this-separate-tryhar

1256.5647977701967

Will me having this separate tryhard account that takes advantage of some of Manifold's flaws recieve complaints?

1655165427210

AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1

cpmm-1

0

3.914774939170947

True

play

NO

public

1655165300422

David

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7934349855895748, "platformFee": 0.2989058309315958, "liquidityFee": 1.7934349855895748}

0

1655165427210

101.79343498558957

Salty

1699532623041

0

https://firebasestorage.…c05-2269bb61ea2b

1

0

0.5

1655165411141

1699532621455

0.5

CNy88t0MWpH5z24lvZtL

which-dark-mode-plugin-is-best-for

38

Which dark mode plugin is best for Chrome?

1655848740000

oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.923348198101932

True

play

a20bcb0ce0c4

public

1655165876662

Milli

Will resolve based on my subjective feeling, Manifold looking nice is an important factor. If multiple plugins are required for multiple pages I will resolve MULTI. Jun 14, 2:24am: Most tools have configuration options. Describing the optimal settings in general / for specific sites obviously helps getting picked.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.12, "platformFee": 1.03, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655852540363

340.00000000000006

Milli

1655848540009

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ea5b8c02684d", "prob": 0.5250997689561018, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 86.55739806124409, "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 78.2825108065891, "textFts": "", "contractId": "CNy88t0MWpH5z24lvZtL", "createdTime": 1655165876740, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445233}]

["technology-default"]

1655848538734

1655166375787

{"a20bcb0ce0c4": 100}

True

0.13909214811352527

wHLYce3PhbCFvPnNSQox

{"NO": 731.8708570853664, "YES": 37174.3772140251}

0

will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a

78336.56985282587

Will Apple announce the launch of a car by the end of 2023?

1704084260849

t2opMBFkyde8fuFsv78GY1SEdrz2

cpmm-1

0.08913681298613944

0.46346210014369404

True

basic

NO

public

1655166785235

Tatiana Surver

Some reports from 2020 mention the intention of technology company Apple of producing a car with advanced battery technology by 2024, including rumors of a partnership with Hyundai. Apple CEO Tim Cook has voiced publicly to be developing projects of autonomous systems in the past few years and the company has been test...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8704319902374267, "platformFee": 0.2570558685507699, "liquidityFee": 1.5423352113046194}

0

1704084260849

1336.5423352113046

TatianaSurver

1704084261853

1.4

https://firebasestorage.…5ba-372911b16997

2

82

0

https://firebasestorage.…bff-2092b808e1c3

33

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "t2opMBFkyde8fuFsv78GY1SEdrz2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1675285546614}, {"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "t2opMBFkyde8fuFsv78GY1SEdrz2", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1675285530782}, {"name": "Technology", "s...

["technology-default", "apple", "world-default", "business", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2099621234154679

0.5

1704084256313

1700103991886

0

t2opMBFkyde8fuFsv78GY1SEdrz2

laqp0ReuyXeHTnfVchBM

what-novel-will-win-the-hugo-award-754aa85d2ba9

12

What novel will win the Hugo award in 2022?

1655168326815

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.982845296966577

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655167531674

Forrest

(Let's try this again) https://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2022-hugo-awards/

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655168326815

339.99999999999994

Forrest

1655168408404

0

https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4bfcf1eef6d5", "prob": 0.7971938775510204, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.06010270036704, "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.936890126973372, "textFts": "", "contractId": "laqp0ReuyXeHTnfVchBM", "createdTime": 1655167531750, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547165}]

["culture-default"]

1655167580336

1655168407604

True

0.5099763893700091

N5eVoVY4dVoIqEbH0wEW

{"NO": 464.83865620510556, "YES": 23.538945436055144}

1

test-910b03fbb349

365

Test?

1655167992073

yEmwNGc2WuYVK19kdDNfP82max73

cpmm-1

0

3.765382708179464

True

play

YES

public

1655167976701

Ethan Krumble

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.968062769366781, "platformFee": 0.16134379489446352, "liquidityFee": 0.968062769366781}

0

1655167992073

100.96806276936678

ethank

1655167985307

0

https://firebasestorage.…e9b-e1138c257942

1

0

0.5

1655167984002

0.5

0.6940943047449151

CpRrFNaU3dqFP2wzOUMd

{"NO": 90.94760399461629, "YES": 104.27085560588938}

0

do-you-predict-childhood-sexual-ass

5755.509761391449

Do you predict childhood sexual assault will correlate with any fetish?

1655786958407

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

3.2668517590241173

True

play

NO

public

1655168429949

Aella

I did a survey where I asked people a gradient question about childhood assault - from no (0) to severe (3). If this question correlates more than 0.12 with any sexual fetish (I tested around 300, depending on how you count subcategories), this question will resolve 'yes.' I'm going to check biological male answers onl...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 56.36908729270108, "platformFee": 8.565205810957563, "liquidityFee": 51.39123486574536}

0

1655786958407

109.19369444153926

Aella

1655787009455

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

41

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525082}, {"name": "Differential Psychology", "slug": "differential-psychology", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "uC4Dv1bqR2HhA54hcPBX", "createdTime": 1679778984074}]

["science-default", "differential-psychology"]

0.5

1655786958118

1655787017040

0.6968575331498112

naYWt0UiQBzWDDxB2hqT

how-will-manifold-invest-its-cash

2092.7504531884006

Where will Manifold invest its cash?

1657781940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.646634083660325

True

play

MKT

public

1655168532531

Austin

So Manifold is currently sitting on ~$2.6M of cash that we've received through various investors and grants. Right now, it's basically all parked inside our Stripe account. But we don't earn any interest on it... We do want to keep a reasonable amount of it in Stripe just to be able to easily pay cash, but also we cou...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 22.80998187246397, "platformFee": 5.702495468115992, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658607371196

1060

Austin

1657563741258

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

22

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "754e1fdaa986", "prob": 0.004102563854442009, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.015548128000368694, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.7743083012991083, "textFts": "", "contractId": "naYWt0UiQBzWDDxB2hqT", "createdTime": 1655168532748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1

[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429487}, {"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888100}]

["manifold-investors", "marshalls-group-for-testing"]

1657563741136

1656599357213

{"377bd14e5ccd": 15.571428571428571, "c01af71a97d2": 84.42857142857143}

True

0.49993918075872185

2ksmsZz7ZuiiT3Ip9Or3

{"NO": 93.8476509349947, "YES": 108.74345384533703}

0

test-6727f230a48b

18

test

1655265540000

s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2

cpmm-1

0

2.7550465576847225

True

play

NO

public

1655168603280

Quantum Gambler

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5102317465770302, "platformFee": 0.08503862442950505, "liquidityFee": 0.5102317465770302}

0

1655301809070

100.51023174657702

Mirek

1655209959199

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055

3

0

1

0.5

1655209957790

0.4631762896028613

0.5336521859132691

jPnMhSGHEsoPrrpReQm5

{"NO": 314.3384335568228, "YES": 32.209549318815895}

1

will-resolve-yes-when-10000-has-bee

32225.292611446843

Will resolve YES when $10,000 has been bet. Will resolve NA if it hits the close date.

1655173128058

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

3.5456412112101825

True

play

YES

public

1655170152419

Undox

Will resolve YES when $10,000 has been bet. Will resolve NA if it hits the close date. Jun 14, 11:51am: To clarify this is 10,000 Manifold Market "Dollars".

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.213729978010697, "platformFee": 0.36895499633511625, "liquidityFee": 2.213729978010697}

0

1655173128058

102.2137299780107

Undox

1655172413438

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

4

0

0.5

1655172412167

1655171706962

0.9178147554615392

0.49963048274877936

FdPc1h3uwkfyQxbVQQ3J

{"NO": 14.944227334001113, "YES": 717.303215970757}

0

will-bitcoin-go-below-15k-for-at-le

1419.6048247633764

Will Bitcoin go below $15k for at least 24 hours before Q4 2022?

1664650673230

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

4.344091808759703

True

play

NO

public

1655170605282

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full 24hours on Coingecko", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Grouped Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.049872653596609, "platformFee": 0.28226782004071405, "liquidityFee": 1.693606920244284}

0

1664650673230

101.69360692024428

Gigacasting

1664587978339

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

19

0

19

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441463}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662899529880}]

["crypto-prices", "global-macro"]

0.5

1664587978245

0.020379183291912253

0.31093233247297314

x4b4Ix3YTa5hDLtCJdqA

{"NO": 86.7023427855446, "YES": 137.25417475108705}

0.2218154872404101

planecrash-jvyy-xrygunz-wbva-vbzrqn

3348.4124225495193

[Planecrash] Jvyy Xrygunz wbva Vbzrqnr be gel gb qrfgebl gur jbeyq vs ur yrnirf Nonqne?

1657781940000

L1H0tJWjtqfICeL9zpGFaubI1Kx1

cpmm-1

0

3.261144286101829

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655170801231

Aevylmar

Conditional on Keltham ceasing to be a cleric of Abadar, will he become a servant/ally of Iomedae (YES), or try to destroy the world? (NO). (If he does neither, this question resolves N/A. If he tries to destroy the world as a servant of Iomedae, this question resolves N/A unless Iomedae ceases her alliance with him, i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680969979378

121.5786646353281

Aevylmar

1680939987253

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9d9eI-RzfA3-9H0TnMM351XZvlpj-XkpII-dO=s96-c

28

0

1

29

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529394064}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548617}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "group...

["glowfic", "culture-default", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1657060305823

1680939983341

0.22

08sI1v6UtlTQyjZe9oJM

which-emoji-animal-will-i-find-the

57

Which emoji animal will I find the cutest?

1655794740000

Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.890826398246325

True

play

MKT

public

1655172187848

RoboTeddy

To participate, just submit a single emoji as a response! Only emojis of animals will be considered. Cuteness will be evaluated while viewing the emoji in Chrome on MacOS 12. To prevent people from just buying their way to the top, the market resolution will be based on my personal judgement/preferences. I'll choose ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.039999999999999, "platformFee": 1.2599999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655816916503

620

TedSuzman

1655817100190

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgXZDtSs2IjeoebYeoCxTpyOWVIkUcPz7kTORWuEg=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6b370d00f40c", "prob": 0.4056959714390036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.596660402329146, "userId": "Bl1WQChXbWgh4mIG7Cez2JJw4ht2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 37.49654782337196, "textFts": "", "contractId": "08sI1v6UtlTQyjZe9oJM", "createdTime": 1655172187930, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

1655793902108

1655817098518

{"c5ed47a4697": 7.613959876997954, "3328b53be551": 11.715137141580682, "9bba01cf2dbc": 46.86054856632273, "9eca4e22f3fc": 23.430274283161364, "e88a461b6621": 10.380080131937282}

True

0.4995086424779749

H9kKJErdC7ZSuW3cxdLx

{"NO": 26.620481449009898, "YES": 386.11571894590134}

0

will-i-pawsys-have-15-more-twitter

290

Will I (@pawsys) have 15 more Twitter followers in one week?

1655779200000

r1NDPSRFWfhC9htdIIwTuegezFI3

cpmm-1

0

3.582261845549218

True

play

NO

public

1655174404244

Pawel

When I post this I have 241 followers. This market will resolve to yes if on June 20th, 2022 at 07:40 pm (PST) I will have 256 or more. https://twitter.com/pawsys

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.405205080113405, "platformFee": 0.10418480520295839, "liquidityFee": 0.6251088312177503}

0

1655832314799

100.62510883121774

paw

1655832446598

0

https://firebasestorage.…a67-4c2be9022afa

6

0

1

0.5

1655768383723

1655832444284

0.06437908074362454

0.34889127730764824

nO6C7bM5aQm8nWH5rgKg

{"NO": 204.54048138598014, "YES": 8544.68721072963}

0

will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a

64438.052842613346

Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

1.158735629412318

True

basic

NO

public

1655176191980

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jun 15, 9:47pm: For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 216.7126262109784, "platformFee": 2.3092298448449853, "liquidityFee": 13.855379069069908}

0

1673420207835

1160.3144509023225

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710456599512

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

217

0

3

198

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia", "special-prosecutor-jack-smith"]

0.5

1672544683155

1672759060486

0.01

0.487282153835544

Azmi87lDHNPB2pB4E2pA

{"NO": 7.927875745923924, "YES": 1401.9340961042801}

0

is-12

1302

Is 1=2 ?

1655177294020

pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3

cpmm-1

0

5.425651593240317

True

play

NO

public

1655177268014

samanddeanus

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3954233743199591, "platformFee": 0.06590389571999318, "liquidityFee": 0.3954233743199591}

0

1655177294020

100.39542337431996

samanddeanus

1655177281342

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524329}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1655177281186

0.5

0.6825687652640402

96kiAsOyYtjTqFemWENK

{"NO": 1036.3284382573045, "YES": 971.3331073388571}

0.696433581116356

will-the-us-get-5-of-its-energy-fro

479.7894063373185

Will the U.S. get 5% of its energy from solar before 2025?

1735793940000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

9.583613895272741

False

basic

public

1655178135992

Bolton Bailey

I intend to resolve this using https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/united-states#what-sources-does-the-country-get-its-energy-from, or if that doesn't have current data, whatever source I find which I think is reliable.

BINARY

{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7470122543676404, "platformFee": 0.08650328381696497, "liquidityFee": 0.5190197029017898}

0

1000

BoltonBailey

1681987621862

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

13

0

12

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565500}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1681987621697

0.4695818359572737

KCqgLewyT1cAeDXUonIR

{"NO": 133.79750052385907, "YES": 157.01722656943855}

0

will-investing-in-i-bonds-cost-me-o

161.91251298656903

Will investing in I bonds cost me over an hour of cumulative effort?

1682999607765

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.1176185205847426

True

play

NO

public

1655179284426

Jack

This is intended to roughly capture a question of whether something will go terribly wrong with them, or a few moderately annoying things add up. Resolves YES if anything related to investing in I bonds takes me over an hour of cumulative time over the next year. This includes the time I already spent creating a Treasu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.380213404300296, "platformFee": 0.39670223405004934, "liquidityFee": 2.380213404300296}

0

1682999607765

142.3802134043003

jack

1683383515452

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

7

0

6

0.5

1682777282050

1683383512217

0.43

aOxDRquHyILxw2zocbqy

how-much-will-be-donated-through-ma

1553.4444093410436

How much will be donated through Manifold for Charity in total, by July 15?

1657954740000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6478447594732755

True

basic

1eefaf800af2

public

1655179530839

Manifold

A continuation of https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/total-donations-for-manifold-for-go. Let's forecast how much Manifold users will donate over the next ~30ish days! The twist this time: thanks to the generosity of the FTX Future Fund, we're able to provide a donation matching pool, allocated via quadratic fun...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 26.595632247009306, "platformFee": 6.648908061752326, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661148403486

1080

Manifold

1660200541042

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d2e71fa434a5", "prob": 0.004429338818252068, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.023635364042723095, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.312457676599903, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aOxDRquHyILxw2zocbqy", "createdTime": 1655179530912, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849877}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

1657954718293

1660200538458

{"1eefaf800af2": 100}

True

0.5002178136951954

GVeJ3ATwxCrlqvfSbowK

{"NO": 10.398751692800872, "YES": 1080.730326401903}

0

will-the-total-market-cap-of-crypto

1518.0823767707716

Will the total market cap of crypto go above $1T again before July 1, 2022?

1656658740000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

4.899838137255162

True

play

NO

public

1655180152956

Ben

Resolves YES if the total market cap for crypto goes above $1T (even temporarily) between the time this market was created and July 1, 2022. Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ Jun 13, 9:16pm: Note, for the data source, resolution uses the "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" chart

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.28472761630942, "platformFee": 0.5098159516110454, "liquidityFee": 3.058895709666272}

0

1656676625064

103.05889570966627

bcongdon

1656639837727

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

18

0

1

0.5

1656639837511

1656540212062

0.009538494900643282

0.5074580443151733

bju8Ly9KhIxyNlbtcEK9

{"NO": 150.40561636966538, "YES": 79.93308672096835}

0.66

how-many-popcorn-kernels-out-of-the

267.12711598926063

How many popcorn kernels out of the next 50 thrown by Esben will Sam catch in his mouth?

1655185645890

r3OV4ND2h7P2yLShCku2RPuopPM2

cpmm-1

0

2.651871831378795

True

play

MKT

public

1655184823637

Sam Marks

Sam caught 34 of the last 50. Market will resolve to (2 x # caught)%.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.568942266035695, "platformFee": 0.7614903776726156, "liquidityFee": 4.568942266035695}

0

1655185645890

104.5689422660357

SamMarks

1655185612711

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiTmXGZV33P3Lu2SSrDXxIb3iRTgiMPe4EQ9Aw6=s96-c

4

0

0.5

1655185612531

0.66

N6pe1KaSwds8nb4az5JA

in-what-monthyear-will-ethereum-mer

2820.515590959828

In what month/year will Ethereum merge proof of stake?

1663267800915

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.63681348819472

True

play

511a7e22e374

public

1655187526791

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve this to when Coinbase lets you transact in ETH2 Jun 14, 2:18am: please give answers in the form of "month/year

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.039069840724268945, "platformFee": 0.009767460181067236, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663267800915

760

LivInTheLookingGlass

1663257075069

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e302c7ef92d8", "prob": 0.0019245391394102848, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.007136405438828141, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.7009749510362973, "textFts": "", "contractId": "N6pe1KaSwds8nb4az5JA", "createdTime": 1655187527074, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

14

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492258}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364816}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "s...

["crypto-speculation", "olivia", "ethereum-roadmap"]

1663253670833

1663257072984

{"511a7e22e374": 100}

True

0.5133104639843312

94SYoLfnUNWRgN1lS5DH

{"NO": 3014.967967824971, "YES": 3.701593843603278}

1

d

2915

d

1655188835386

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.385272242157811

True

play

YES

public

1655188821398

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.19219305017184535, "platformFee": 0.03203217502864089, "liquidityFee": 0.19219305017184535}

0

1655188835386

100.19219305017185

Electricitypipe

1655188830780

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1655188829463

0.5

0.49385719437085646

wQrEg475vWcGrdn5xkei

{"NO": 50.88163282443294, "YES": 219.35125658244488}

0

is-something-bad-going-to-happen-to

146

Is something bad going to happen tomorrow?

1655244011271

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.9431453928314806

True

play

NO

public

1655189180640

Rai

I am anxious about a thing that's happening tomorrow. Everything's probably fine and my anxiety is probably not warranted. This market resolves to whether by market close I judge that the thing I am anxious about is indeed bad.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3634343953210406, "platformFee": 0.39390573255350686, "liquidityFee": 2.3634343953210406}

0

1655244011271

102.36343439532104

agentydragon

1655268630945

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

11

0

0.5

1655230101865

1655268628392

0.1845612681065999

0.4541229556219245

kGAC5noXX6QXMaFKCWb3

{"NO": 76.17751436278802, "YES": 198.6502512773112}

0

will-i-be-a-listed-coauthor-on-arxi

131.9502371930562

Will I be a listed (co)author on arXiv by the end of the year?

1672547490454

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.5931744636452625

True

play

NO

public

1655190115318

Rai

Resolves to YES if by the end of a year there's a paper up on arXiv listing me as author, doesn't matter whether primary or co-. I have not yet published anything in any journal. Only academic writing I did was bachelor's thesis (submitted) and unsubmitted drafts of master's. I'm just after the first 6 weeks of a resea...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7023942264809798, "platformFee": 0.11706570441349663, "liquidityFee": 0.7023942264809798}

0

1672547490454

120.70239422648098

agentydragon

1672532352803

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

4

0

3

0.5

1672532352635

0.24

0.5138526633986364

fmNeeFyRIRzJF6vjbs8g

{"NO": 477.42772559490436, "YES": 25.093584226999596}

1

will-there-be-a-bot-that-posts-mani

532.1179134184977

Will there be a bot that posts Manifold Markets to the fediverse by the end of August?

1655961766641

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.674538333202974

True

play

YES

public

1655190250744

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

An extra useful way to do this would be to make and publish an RSS feed, then use one of the several RSS-to-mastodon bridges. I will resolve to YES if on September 1st I am able to boost a post from said bot and have it show up in my Mastodon timeline

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7261659195874888, "platformFee": 0.45436098659791474, "liquidityFee": 2.7261659195874888}

0

1655961766641

102.72616591958749

LivInTheLookingGlass

1655533356359

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

4

0

[{"name": "Fediverse", "slug": "fediverse", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "eDgkmJd7TbqSU9kPcGJ7", "createdTime": 1658813409887}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492229}]

["fediverse", "olivia"]

0.5

1655533355204

1655236067983

0.9526294565605915

oJ9FjfHST5JjUqPh3qyz

which-multiday-inperson-public-even

138

Which multi-day in-person public events will I attend in 2022?

1672559940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.805446292461018

True

play

MKT

public

1655190673402

Rai

I'm in furry fandom and rationality/EA community. At time of writing, I'm hoping to go to May Contain Hackers 2022, CFAR Alumni Reunion (Bay Area edition, if it happens), hopefully Midwest Fur Fest. Resolves to every named multi-day in-person public event that I attend this year. Family functions, weddings, work off-s...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672588897460

460

agentydragon

1672588940967

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b6947f1e2683", "prob": 0.17654120471718096, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.902704395874834, "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.196974384118576, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oJ9FjfHST5JjUqPh3qyz", "createdTime": 1655190673621, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

2

1666072753031

1672588940330

{"b2c247580afa": 12.960760998810937, "ca1064501aed": 87.03923900118906}

True

0.5025422281166108

UuivsqzQ4bw81bTgIinX

{"NO": 93.70578715121289, "YES": 112.00433654874686}

0

will-i-create-at-least-5-markets-us

226.08794498709076

Will I create at least 5 markets using the Manifold API?

1662015540000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.7276737925266152

True

play

NO

public

1655191161007

Rai

I like the idea of prediction markets and am toying with the idea of using them more. If I've created at least 5 markets using the Manifold API, it means I've probably committed to this idea enough to write some kind of at least simple bot. I am good at programming, I'd just need to find the energy, idea for questions ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7101820222325554, "platformFee": 0.20793860009204876, "liquidityFee": 1.2476316005522925}

0

1662019939832

101.2476316005523

agentydragon

1662019949107

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

10

0

1

11

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1661867698960}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1662005673950

1662019949577

0.45804671281892484

0.36490005035732137

UK9hvz1DUoRSqqsCQoiv

{"NO": 44.71672841109738, "YES": 701.7660584970148}

0

will-dominic-cummings-join-a-london

675.0441557820163

Will Dominic Cummings join a London Rationalish meeting by the end of the year?

1672531140000

Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1

cpmm-1

0

3.428256495992285

True

play

NO

public

1655191765335

Alex Palcuie

London Rationalish identifies as a fortnightly London-based meetup for members of the rationalist diaspora. The diaspora includes, but is not limited to, LessWrong, Astral Codex Ten, rationalist tumblrsphere, and parts of the Effective Altruism movement. Dominic Cummings is a British political strategist who served as...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5080340986428875, "platformFee": 0.4636496755348015, "liquidityFee": 2.781898053208809}

0

1672583184970

142.7818980532088

palcu

1672483547329

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVXM0UnPSHAbQ1jkPXcxs_FoGVMbzyHCxV_V0KjgM=s96-c

11

0

1

11

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544678}, {"name": "London Rationalish", "slug": "london-rationalish", "userId": "Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1", "groupId": "jS7iB6km1feuWs0JkFuA", "createdTime": 1672581633979}]

["culture-default", "london-rationalish"]

0.5

1672483546085

0.04

0.5994339556067362

ac5LRk19V5kBZJjyAN2q

{"NO": 253.00936856743988, "YES": 89.77448387325467}

1

mistborn-era-2-xryfvre-will-make-an

141.03607050347082

Mistborn Era 2 - [Xryfvre] will make an on page appearance in The Lost Metal

1668466860000

eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2

cpmm-1

0

2.4243323694558976

True

play

YES

public

1655197988618

Rutger

Resolves to Yes if Kelsiers appears on page in The Lost Metal in some active capacity. References to him working behind the scenes do not count, nor does him only showing up through Seon or Coppermind memory (as in Bands of Mourning). Him showing up in person as Thaidakar or The Sovereign does count.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6197776521152507, "platformFee": 0.20861747914007917, "liquidityFee": 1.2517048748404749}

0

1669836643414

141.25170487484047

Rutger

1668466833946

0

https://firebasestorage.…679-3097b2ea9514

7

0

3

8

[{"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "groupId": "W76fvvUmYWiPb6lyYtiI", "createdTime": 1658529520871}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1659590797653}]

["cosmere", "books"]

0.5

1668466833851

0.8083358291340335

9FgZHMwnTtvkmttoxjeL

what-will-beeminder-next-integrate

210.8893119209837

What will Beeminder next integrate with?

1658923200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.772375113018023

True

play

7fff98a803cc

public

1655204027626

N.C. Young

Some possibilities: https://beeminder.consider.it/ Jun 30, 8:51pm: As determined by https://www.beeminder.com/meta/integrations Close date updated to 2022-07-28 12:00 am

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.892807008715944, "platformFee": 1.473201752178986, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659605494956

440

NcyRocks

1657841142974

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

0

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "71c73160404a", "prob": 0.11639563395018167, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.802056951626675, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.8628877941014, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9FgZHMwnTtvkmttoxjeL", "createdTime": 1655204027738, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

https://firebasestorage.…d3e-0e907aeefc50

[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664511304203}]

["beeminder"]

1657841141710

{"7fff98a803cc": 100}

True