CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will Raymond order 4 square stuff by tonight?

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tenadome

This resolves to YES if Raymond orders 4 square stuff by tonight. If this resolves NO, there will be real-world consequences that outweigh M$100. Jun 14, 1:38pm: tonight = 11:59 PM BST Jun 14, 2:02pm: if @Raymond has NO shares in this market at time of close & he has not ordered the 4 square stuff, this market resolv...

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tenadome

This resolves YES if Raymond orders 4 square stuff by 11:59 PM BST on 6/14. This also resolves YES if Raymond owns NO shares at market close & has not ordered 4 square stuff. This resolves NO iff Raymond has not ordered 4 square stuff by 11:59 PM BST on 6/14 & does not own any NO shares at market close.

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By the end of 2023, will I be able to quiz an AI system on a book I've read and have it achieve a score greater than or equal to 80%?

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Stephen Malina

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Will I manage to get my account unblocked today?

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Rai

Discover bank locked my account cause of some security thing, probably just need me to confirm some transaction. I just gotta call them. But their security people are only available during work hours and it sounds like they have a huge ~90 min queue. ("We're experiencing an unusually high" fuck off it's your job to sta...

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Will "Game 6 Klay" Thompson score 30 points or more in Game 6 of the NBA Finals 2022?

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howtodowtle

Game 6 Klay stats so far: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/klay-thompson-stats-in-a-game-6

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Should the linked market count a duplicate user account as valid under the stated resolution criteria?

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Isaac King

See the original discussion here: https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-so-much-as-a-single-banned-pos Vote by typing "YES" or "NO" in the comments, along with any arguments you'd like to provide for your answer. This market resolves to majority opinion. (Either 100% or 0%, depending on which gets more votes...

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Will Tesla showcase its Optimus/Tesla Bot prototype this year?

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Peter Berggren

This question resolves to YES if Tesla showcases a robot marketed as a prototype of their Tesla Optimus humanoid robot, formerly known as "Tesla Bot," before the end of 2022. This question still resolves to YES if this prototype is not humanoid, cannot perform any given advertised consumer or industrial use case, etc.,...

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Will Nancy Mace win her primary?

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Enopoletus Harding

It's today.

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What novella will win a Hugo award in 2022?

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Forrest

https://www.thehugoawards.org/hugo-history/2022-hugo-award Best Novella category

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This question resolves to the median response (excluding non-numeric responses)

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J. F. Jurchen

All responses that are not numeric will be ignored. A "numeric" response is one matched by the regex `-?\d+.?\d+`. 1.05 is numeric, -4.00 is numeric, 5 is numeric, "the square root of two" is not numeric. If multiple equivalent responses are the median (e.g. "2" and "2.0" and "2.00"), I will resolve to the one contain...

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{"NO": 981.3784852393868, "YES": 973.8145764883774}

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Will Bitcoin ever see four-digit prices again?

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Gigacasting

One week average price across all exchanges

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Gigacasting

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I will resolve this question NO.

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Matt P

Secure the bag.

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Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican gubernatorial primary?

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Andrew G

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["politics-default"]

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samanddeanus

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samanddeanus

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Will Tesla have robots for sale by the end of 2025?

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Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if Tesla has delivered Tesla Bots to customers and you can buy one on the Tesla website before the end of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: It doesn't h...

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ahalekelly

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Will I appear on a leaderboard within 30 days?

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SneakySly

Will immediately resolve YES after I find out I have appeared on either of the main leaderboards. If this goes to close and I have not reached a leaderboard will resolve NO.

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SneakySly

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stormlight-archive-will-qnyvane-bec

35

Stormlight Archive - Will [Qnyvane] become the Vessel of either (inclusive) of the Shards [Ubabe] or [Bqvhz] in Era 1?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Jun 14, 4:48pm: Will Dalinar become the Vessel of either (inclusive) of the Shards Honor or Odium in Era 1? Contract resolved automatically.

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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["books", "olivia", "cosmere"]

0.5

1655256583217

1655268456559

0.4697064882392962

0.5909047090899984

sUcZGaZNKQ5UvqX8hAmO

{"NO": 244.83790443333666, "YES": 117.84370395975102}

0.7500621582677293

do-you-predict-polyamorous-males-ar

374.95695722403497

Do you predict polyamorous males are more likely to be into orgies?

1655265061152

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

2.081478762180608

True

play

MKT

public

1655240621981

Aella

In my survey, I asked how poly people were, on a monog-poly scale. I also asked how much they liked fetishes involving multiple partners, such as partner swapping, orgies, and gangbangs. If polyamory and "how much they like fetishes with multiple partners" correlates at r=0.12 or above, this question will resolve yes....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.539955865446829, "platformFee": 1.089992644241138, "liquidityFee": 6.539955865446829}

0

1655265061152

156.53995586544687

Aella

1655266016414

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

18

0

0.5

1655263947648

1655266014862

0.7500621582677293

0.5004221952869314

k6nCbzOuth1gemJj0L6T

{"NO": 119.91803278688525, "YES": 85.06355142298693}

0.5854284972943996

will-recession-have-a-higher-averag-c4874c220af8

20

Will "Recession" have a higher average Google Search Trends score than "Inflation" in the week ending on June 22, 2022?

1655265001345

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.767784700305585

True

play

MKT

public

1655244783728

Ben

Data Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F09jx2,%2Fm%2F06bmj This resolves using the "Average" trend score for the 7 day period ending on June 22 2022. Fine print: I'm using "Recession" and "Inflation" as *Topics* in trends, rather than search terms. Related previous market: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.49180327868852447, "platformFee": 0.08196721311475408, "liquidityFee": 0.49180327868852447}

0

1655265001345

100.49180327868852

bcongdon

1655266058272

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574601}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1655245144799

1655266057850

0.5854284972943996

0.4998655376474483

iDAqyqIV9sW6efzakepv

{"NO": 91.21482011751445, "YES": 110.95024331081679}

0.4510566501464151

will-the-bipartisan-gun-legislation

11

Will the bipartisan gun legislation make it into law?

1655265001244

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.7654938617286917

True

play

MKT

public

1655246389455

Bolton Bailey

Resolves YES if the bipartisan gun bill covered [here](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/12/us-senators-bipartisan-gun-control-deal) becomes law during this congressional term. Contract resolved automatically.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2985401350992695, "platformFee": 0.04975668918321159, "liquidityFee": 0.2985401350992695}

0

1655265001244

100.29854013509927

BoltonBailey

1655266064400

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

2

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529500859}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560873518}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politic...

["politics-default", "us-legislation", "us-politics"]

0.5

1655248629511

1655266063986

False

0.4510566501464151

w7rxJCL7luir400bzmBn

what-thing-has-the-highest-ratio-of

180

What thing has the highest ratio of "sounds bad" / "is bad"?

1655265061145

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.784730694915448

True

play

MKT

public

1655246546189

Isaac King

Resolves to my opinion of what thing has the scariest-sounding name relative to how bad it actually is. To prevent last-minute sniping, this market's close date will be delayed to 24 hours after the most recent bet. (If it closes before I have a chance to extend it, I'll reopen it for the appropriate length of time.) ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655265061145

460

IsaacKing

1659656926543

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f341a60d8c14", "prob": 0.13717421124828533, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.92254458536358, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.96280544193692, "textFts": "", "contractId": "w7rxJCL7luir400bzmBn", "createdTime": 1655246546266, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1655263773763

1659656925198

{"10775f946117": 0, "52f60c8f5ad1": 0.3863275039745628, "88b1b5cc35ff": 0.383147853736089, "9deadb0db9e4": 14.149443561208264, "b80ff2be3ee7": 30.26232114467408, "dad1792b7202": 52.83942766295708, "f767ad6bcdbe": 1.9793322734499206}

True

0.5000381512505288

LgaK8N9QHgpfb5ttAdlt

{"NO": 104.02607460753119, "YES": 96.79953437245682}

0.51803018022528

question-tba

6

Question TBA

1655265001446

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

2.766304803975707

True

play

MKT

public

1655249006380

Undox

Why waste a free market because I don't have a question? I will put a question here on a future date. Not wise to bet before then, since my choice of question might be influenced by the current probability. Contract resolved automatically.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.17374858385825998, "platformFee": 0.028958097309709996, "liquidityFee": 0.17374858385825998}

0

1655265001446

100.17374858385826

Undox

1655267751307

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

2

0

0.5

1655262086395

1655267752438

0.51803018022528

wvm1pcJlCU8v92WsjAqN

which-european-country-will-have-th

0

Which European country will have the first Covid lockdown this summer?

1655265061143

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

MKT

public

1655249561673

Mr Stone

One country per answer. This question resolves as soon as a country has a lockdown. The lockdown needs to be at least city wide. Contract resolved automatically.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655265061143

220

stone

1655266119466

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "229d01584f5f", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wvm1pcJlCU8v92WsjAqN", "createdTime": 1655249561751, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

1655249561673

1655266117895

{}

True

0.5479071574192107

4azc5xvdcfDrxhJ6Hxt9

{"NO": 280.41774162187886, "YES": 229.19990683160478}

0.5972221863320812

will-ethereum-fall-below-1000-at-an

49.41176021687783

Will Ethereum fall below $1000 at any point during 2022?

1655265001443

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

1.3575212322642407

True

play

MKT

public

1655250829750

Stochastic Cockatoo

Contract resolved automatically.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0229889674597121, "platformFee": 0.17049816124328537, "liquidityFee": 1.0229889674597121}

0

1655265001443

251.02298896745972

StochasticParrot

1655266129074

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

3

0

0.5

1655259847758

1655266127434

0.5972221863320812

0.5216092287197733

FsUr9uQYVA3cx8S6TKQs

{"NO": 1675.6077828294774, "YES": 7.898993637163878}

1

is-rice-cooked

1576

Is Rice cooked?

1655264377057

OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1

cpmm-1

0

5.3147323301710205

True

play

YES

public

1655252011087

Amyg Dala

Resolves "NO" if Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC) either wins his primary outright, or forces a runoff. (In that case, Rice is steaming, but not cooked). Resolves "YES" if a different candidate wins the primary outright.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3533030231350067, "platformFee": 0.39221717052250105, "liquidityFee": 2.3533030231350067}

0

1655264377057

102.353303023135

AmygDala

1655264352544

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c

3

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479047}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1655264352303

1655263478598

0.9827669295590594

Bv7hYEbE2waE19gBNeQ5

which-bank-will-i-be-using-for-my-u

4

Which bank will I be using for my USD checking account by end of September?

1655265001347

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.006127541774194

True

play

MKT

public

1655252026669

Rai

Currently with Discover, but got my account blocked for some random security type reason, and I've been now on the hold to get to customer support for 2 hours. I am frustrated and considering switching. Contract resolved automatically.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655265001347

260

agentydragon

1655744873737

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "da4acb32cd33", "prob": 0.9245562130177515, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 45.77838736245417, "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.7355164087762596, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Bv7hYEbE2waE19gBNeQ5", "createdTime": 1655252026743, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1655258309819

1655744872170

{"656c480cadc8": 75.36764705882354, "b97056d93642": 24.63235294117647}

True

0.5042129206534389

UvyhqDOL9Rur3FqYfco2

{"NO": 199.79999999999998, "YES": 53.05856129685915}

0.7929455434530219

empty-questions-for-myself-to-win-s

100

Empty questions for myself to win some tokens

1655265001248

r1NDPSRFWfhC9htdIIwTuegezFI3

cpmm-1

0

2.9416697102234584

True

play

MKT

public

1655252296749

Pawel

This resolves yes if the prediction turns out to be yes Contract resolved automatically.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1999999999999997, "platformFee": 0.19999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 1.1999999999999997}

0

1655265001248

101.2

paw

1655252331102

0

https://firebasestorage.…a67-4c2be9022afa

1

0

0.5

1655252329728

0.7929455434530219

0.4849627506715621

BifBJJKlffcFgFs6HeOk

{"NO": 148.32286077527831, "YES": 154.52983473317187}

0.47473081288610497

will-serena-williams-win-her-24th-g

25

Will Serena Williams win her 24th Grand Slam singles title this year?

1655265001173

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

2.031556858935803

True

play

MKT

public

1655253589201

Duncn

Contract resolved automatically.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7173971256919729, "platformFee": 0.11956618761532883, "liquidityFee": 0.7173971256919729}

0

1655265001173

150.71739712569195

Duncn

1655327584658

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

3

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397964}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655262345484

1655327583759

0.47473081288610497

0.5114329349870004

OFEUoyUz4vvpKgqZ0Ori

{"NO": 699.8800000000001, "YES": 15.757622129316761}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-0cb4e4b7e797

600

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655256302834

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

4.342814436405926

True

play

YES

public

1655256294466

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7200000000000006, "platformFee": 0.1200000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0.7200000000000006}

0

1655256302834

100.72

SayJarva

1655256300759

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655256299430

0.5

0.5125167323543651

GECeWBaxHzHDMSKAdGb0

{"NO": 1199.9241379310347, "YES": 9.250532453048443}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-b025b4285303

1100

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655256320911

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

5.220897775135758

True

play

YES

public

1655256312513

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.455172413793097, "platformFee": 0.07586206896551617, "liquidityFee": 0.455172413793097}

0

1655256320911

100.4551724137931

unit_24601

1655256319282

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.5

1655256317766

0.5

0.5129716993109447

q27NUQ3v0GjB1vFzx7uP

{"NO": 1799.947692307692, "YES": 6.185347421846469}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-08ce74ea23b1

1700

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655256342149

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

5.405525848576292

True

play

YES

public

1655256331251

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.313846153846155, "platformFee": 0.0523076923076925, "liquidityFee": 0.313846153846155}

0

1655256342149

100.31384615384616

PeterBerggrenf455

1655256340183

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655256338786

0.5

lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK

what-is-good

112

What is good?

1655265001448

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.826429610508466

True

play

MKT

public

1655258914863

1

Resolves proportionally to the answer(s) which I find most compelling. (Obviously I’ll refrain from giving my own answers) (Please have at it with philosophy, ethics, etc etc) Contract resolved automatically.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.9999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655265001448

300

1

1655287153919

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a6ef3aade57c", "prob": 0.22249911000355999, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.2831243050545, "userId": "qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.910949571582435, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK", "createdTime": 1655258914930, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1655264793224

1655287149528

{"2db8acc180cf": 85.85164835164835, "42bce955c93a": 1.15327380952381, "c5e0ac9d6efe": 1.1475503663003666, "ca89249baa45": 11.847527472527474}

True

0.499998618166154

5QGvYM9ju3pBTMZlrpbQ

{"NO": 99.13242944760704, "YES": 100.99504975001238}

0.4953450337060168

will-last-week-tonight-with-john-ol

1

Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024?

1655265001355

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

2.771444505352129

True

play

MKT

public

1655260468079

Peter Berggren

This question resolves to "YES" if a segment discussing AI safety as its primary subject is aired on "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" before the start of the year 2024. A segment discussing AI safety within a specific subfield would count, while a segment discussing AI safety as only part of a greater theme would ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.029701499925746253, "platformFee": 0.004950249987624376, "liquidityFee": 0.029701499925746253}

0

1655265001355

100.02970149992575

PeterBerggren

1655266337864

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

1

0

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541239}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1655262867808

1655266337481

0.4953450337060168

0.49814389174213836

mzh7aQPh65GZwLZRk7rh

{"NO": 106.95379809385415, "YES": 95.17111871449532}

1

does-a-random-yesno-question-resolv

240

Does a random yes/no question resolve yes (given that it resolves yes or no)?

1655870340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.756204226354237

True

play

YES

public

1655266940787

Jack

After market close, I will randomly pick a binary market that recently resolved yes or no, and resolve this market the same. The procedure for randomly picking a market will be: at an arbitrary time around 1-2 days after market close, look at resolved markets sorted by resolve date (which shows most recently resolved ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.331222254871939, "platformFee": 0.8366326611528541, "liquidityFee": 5.019795966917124}

0

1655923525446

189.31334987307537

jack

1655923516021

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

7

0

1

0.5

1655839104494

1655923512132

0.5272968222260483

0.5133223008341331

ue56quFZi7DACDW5yusS

{"NO": 3090.9687273930995, "YES": 3.6108958131800204}

1

g

2991

g

1655284563981

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.384863962143613

True

play

YES

public

1655284540470

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1876356414036797, "platformFee": 0.03127260690061329, "liquidityFee": 0.1876356414036797}

0

1655284563981

100.18763564140367

Electricitypipe

1655284560677

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1655284559108

0.5

0.5030101554085971

tltW5XvNWTx6PJjpbow6

{"NO": 146.88740152868124, "YES": 73.22391142623749}

0.68

what-score-will-thor-love-and-thund

292.7919135573135

What score will "Thor: Love and Thunder" have on Rotten Tomatoes one week after its US release?

1657886400000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

2.7648737944966375

True

play

MKT

public

1655285213907

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jun 16, 12:10am: Critic score, not audience score.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-07-16 12:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.40127298490966, "platformFee": 0.2913288050715284, "liquidityFee": 1.7479728304291704}

0

1657922150586

101.74797283042916

NcyRocks

1657921241202

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

8

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…749-3c43e9ee1b7d

[{"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1668310156193}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4...

["culture-default", "media-rating-futures", "marvel-cinematic-universe", "entertainment"]

0.5

1657696486106

1657921235991

0.68

0.5

38pxjPTrttkBoWoTdbR1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

bundesliga-23-which-footballsoccer

0

Bundesliga '23: Which football/soccer team will win the German Bundesliga 2022/2023?

1655288072174

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655288040548

howtodowtle

https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga Jun 22, 10:33am: Resolved N/A because I intended to make the question free form and mistakenly made it a YES/NO question.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655288072174

100

howtodowtle

1655288040548

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395800}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000069}]

["sports-default", "soccer"]

0.5

False

0.5

0.5001446751199016

CyF5jNk2laekzNTSd505

{"NO": 110.95071905380583, "YES": 91.20444771313034}

0.5489826838700234

how-many-25-min-pomodoros-of-work-w

11

How many (25 min) pomodoros of work will I do today? (0% = 0 poms. 100% = 20 poms.)

1655337498119

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.765612800747813

True

play

MKT

public

1655293743874

Charlie

This resolves to a probability equal to the number of 25 minute work sessions I do today multiplied by 5. My goal today is 11 (55%), so I will try my best to get there. If I reach 11 pomodoros, I will consult the market, and if it is higher than 55%, I will create a stretch goal to continue working toward whatever ex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.29568567716500155, "platformFee": 0.04928094619416693, "liquidityFee": 0.29568567716500155}

0

1655337498119

100.295685677165

Charlie

1655293805111

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1664814192951}]

["charlies-hack-days"]

0.5

1655293803813

0.5489826838700234

pb8VWfM9KO67fQ6kVEGQ

best-stonk

25

Best stonk?

1656400853792

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.950453801175342

True

play

3a20d3d0da2e

public

1655295807257

Brian T. Edwards

What is the most stonky stonk of 2022 so far? Jun 15, 8:27am: A "stonk" is a meme stock that trades with little correlation to market fundamentals.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.6000000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1500000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656400853792

260

BTE

1655296058050

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "716c386d9efd", "prob": 0.64, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 83.2, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.8, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pb8VWfM9KO67fQ6kVEGQ", "createdTime": 1655295807333, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdated...

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529575810}]

["economics-default"]

1655295825518

1655296055240

{"3a20d3d0da2e": 100}

True

0.6264383260079273

FUxnga69t9BSBdistRpJ

{"NO": 5203.270838881622, "YES": 475.8905583073627}

1

will-the-fed-hike-be-75bp

4469

Will the fed hike be >= 75bp?

1655317936646

DwWeWOXTEkUO4KHjI7FLXQHi8io1

cpmm-1

0

0.5409591321903502

True

basic

YES

public

1655300371618

Andrew Acomb

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 33.21324032303686, "platformFee": 5.535540053839476, "liquidityFee": 33.21324032303686}

0

1655317936646

1133.2132403230366

AndrewAcomb

1655318276335

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzHhm0ctMbblN9DeTQ5eb5CoDefO1ktJ8ZUXxVy=s96-c

5

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567329}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1655317918374

1655318275906

0.9449796029794496

0.5375539481013273

kVarLmiWeI8rnf7m9pNK

{"NO": 1411.036028470606, "YES": 13.392154724608911}

1

will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-270cba64dc6f

4879.220022893376

Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $655 on June 15, 2022?

1655319600000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

4.746688892008805

True

play

YES

public

1655300971091

Predictor 🔥

This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.323547678466314, "platformFee": 1.5539246130777191, "liquidityFee": 9.323547678466314}

0

1655323226451

109.32354767846631

Predictor

1655331363400

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

9

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425909}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574750}]

["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]

0.5

1655319599213

1655331361882

0.9919012163335769

0.4875147559798271

muSc9gpSliwGWRP9EKOT

{"NO": 9.453536333921662, "YES": 1173.9226378616356}

0

will-i-feel-alive-today

1074

Will I feel alive today?

1655301311928

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-1

0

5.18318268679695

True

play

NO

public

1655301269658

Trent Yazzo

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4641728301865063, "platformFee": 0.07736213836441773, "liquidityFee": 0.4641728301865063}

0

1655301311928

100.46417283018651

kazoo

1655301303230

0

https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f

1

0

0.5

1655301303043

0.5

0.500513085516672

X37V2Y3spB6iEmBKxioX

{"NO": 112.95689482485733, "YES": 92.62217765542213}

0.5499651812175429

if-netflix-announces-before-the-end

92.724372710458

If Netflix announces before the end of July that they're buying Roku, will their stock to go up?

1659337140000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

2.7327752871457163

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655303316573

Adrian

Market resolves to yes if Netflix stock outperforms QQQ by at least 2% on the day the deal is announced, ot the following trading day if it's announced after trading hours. If no deal is announced by the end of July, market resolves to N/A. Related market: https://manifold.markets/AdrianKelly/will-netflix-announce-bef...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659345230041

101.1374921245486

ahalekelly

1659219507611

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

5

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571471}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104675758}]

["economics-default", "internet"]

0.5

1659219507474

1655304846551

0.44940013449050165

0.99

JNz71KomjIuJ79bjpCJD

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.99

testing-binary-market-creation-thro

0

Testing Binary Market creation through API

1655307243204

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655304763532

Ben

Going to resolves as N/A

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655307243204

100

bcongdon

1655304763532

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

0

0.99

0.5035465454457689

J2DWP95poa1rXBQOfFer

{"NO": 2300.797694802047, "YES": 5.6734390764947875}

1

will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak-83eb8e463986

2459.4984604378064

Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach >20000 infections?

1659125821652

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

5.164803612717803

True

play

YES

public

1655307282166

Tim P

Resolves yes if the threshold is reached. Resolves no after closing(end 2023), or if the outbreak seems over. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science #Monkeypox #Covid

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.409110916112404, "platformFee": 0.28543068598354915, "liquidityFee": 1.7125841159012951}

0

1659125821652

101.7125841159013

TimP

1659125695036

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

12

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415922}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526757}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658...

["monkeypox", "science-default", "world-default", "medicine"]

0.5

1659125651231

1659125689797

0.9715569399295528

0.34607905310096504

O3PpHitX1oF81L6GMCsl

{"NO": 77.65645288882395, "YES": 929.3673537593535}

0

will-scott-alexander-join-a-london

1283.7859010782408

Will Scott Alexander join a London Rationalish meeting by the end of the year?

1672531140000

Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1

cpmm-1

0

2.5290666407486047

True

play

NO

public

1655307394006

Alex Palcuie

London Rationalish identifies as a fortnightly London-based meetup for members of the rationalist diaspora. The diaspora includes, but is not limited to, LessWrong, Astral Codex Ten, rationalist tumblrsphere, and parts of the Effective Altruism movement. Scott Alexander is a doctor on the US West Coast, currently work...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.784010912859282, "platformFee": 0.09074447988373649, "liquidityFee": 0.5444668793024189}

0

1672583143528

210.54446687930243

palcu

1672583174359

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVXM0UnPSHAbQ1jkPXcxs_FoGVMbzyHCxV_V0KjgM=s96-c

13

0

1

14

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543653}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465286}, {"name": "London Rationalish", "slug": "london-rationalish", "userId": "Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1", "group...

["acx", "culture-default", "london-rationalish"]

0.5

1672483534115

1672583170802

0.04

0.4985865997679933

5IbILqgqHnEes5Yp6wWV

{"NO": 1440.082951976834, "YES": 7.139556099954859}

1

will-i-catch-up-to-project-lawful-b

1410.950569355317

Will I catch up to Project Lawful by the end of the week?

1655956740000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

5.393846824775131

True

play

YES

public

1655308105588

Bionic

I'm currently almost done with "my fun research project has more...", and I started on June 2-4 or so, and so naively that predicts I should be caught up by the end of the week. However, my new job starts this week, and so I'll probably be reading less than habitually. If I'm caught up to the most recent part of the s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.875229693538626, "platformFee": 0.1801585158174619, "liquidityFee": 1.0809510949047714}

0

1655956861847

101.08095109490476

BionicD0LPH1N

1655955401384

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

8

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391129}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541164}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1655955400048

1655746317994

0.9950388873398165

0.5000000000000001

rcPPT6Qad8zRy3rtIEkO

{"NO": 184.36231608552282, "YES": 54.241019598393194}

1

will-the-sp-500-be-higher-on-july-1

124

Will the S&P 500 be higher on July 1, 2022 than yesterday?

1656734340000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.9568505105305247

True

play

YES

public

1655309091813

Enopoletus Harding

Will resolve according to here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.273314339621595, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657044104630

100

EnopoletusHarding

1656701656280

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

3

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576261}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1656701650248

1656701653136

0.7726728360987891

0.3994880783207496

r9lqcH37cB5hJQoXDH4z

{"NO": 157.10396332041762, "YES": 54.549359689436}

1

will-the-probability-after-close-be

1029.325290866014

Will the probability after close be evenly divisible by 3%?

1655946000000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

2.9672095312171702

True

play

YES

public

1655309209367

Matt P

This question resolves to YES if the market probability after close, rounded to the nearest integer percentage, is divisible by 3%. For the purposes of this market, I will not count 0% as being divisible by 3%. I don't care if it's technically true. Consider yourself warned. Jun 15, 11:09am: and just as a clarificati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 25.187444402413643, "platformFee": 0.9895214283039553, "liquidityFee": 5.937128569823731}

0

1655949877336

118.1573101602845

MattP

1655949866491

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

14

0

1

0.5

1655945997096

1655949863086

0.6570562581343787

0.13184129476812403

nUlo83Zqgo5mrNTc4t6R

{"NO": 918.838621420138, "YES": 1290.6832674474533}

0.09756373869790765

will-elon-musk-shut-down-twitter-by

2361.1704582867847

Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)

1830326340000

z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2

cpmm-1

0

10.014269522570807

False

basic

public

1655309546631

TANSTAAFL

Resolves as YES if Twitter is no longer in business for any reason. Resolves as YES if Twitter has been renamed and legacy users and tweets have been purged. Resolves as NO if Twitter has been renamed but retains users and/or tweets. Resolves as NO if Twitter is still in business. Resolves as N/A if Musk's purchase of ...

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-17, "week": -6.938893903907228e-17, "month": -6.938893903907228e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.365993275303796, "platformFee": 0.3510939613788289, "liquidityFee": 2.1065637682729728}

0

1000

TANSTAAFL

1713844118410

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c

21

0

https://firebasestorage.…d99-c25ef45fe989

17

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["culture-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1691734102800

1713844117771

False

0.49797532341680495

nW3jGxBPhd0Q1HONpALZ

{"NO": 40.935423826754175, "YES": 267.8006035566406}

0

will-any-of-my-stuff-get-damaged-or

306.38505184550445

Will any of my stuff get damaged or lost during transport?

1657954740000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.1147023826494324

True

play

NO

public

1655309556901

Rai

I'm getting ~8 boxes of my remaining possessions shipped by Swiss Post to USA. It's those stackable Rako boxes: https://eurobox-logistics.com/products/reusable-packaging/plastic-boxes/stackable-boxes/rako-eurocontainers/ They're covered by default Swiss Post insurance for up to CHF 500 per box. They are locked with th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.720689731032544, "platformFee": 0.35873640042330535, "liquidityFee": 2.1524184025398325}

0

1658110330069

102.15241840253984

agentydragon

1657949639161

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

11

0

1

0.5

1657949634910

1657519049304

0.13166169886644427

0.49702202617505886

BwHeK0D6rRIjz00MKumm

{"NO": 60.538410213456984, "YES": 176.1756328681796}

0

will-i-regret-publishing-something

145.76459697668915

Will I regret publishing something?

1664607540000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.8559849688293144

True

play

NO

public

1655310016281

Rai

Resolves to YES if between market open and close I say / otherwise make publicly known something in a public forum and end up regretting it. "Being anxious about it" on its own doesn't count, unless I actually reflectively endorse "yes, this was a bad decision, it had bad consequences / it nearly could have had, I shou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4400511232602407, "platformFee": 0.24572372369129816, "liquidityFee": 1.4743423421477888}

0

1664652352552

101.47434234214778

agentydragon

1664606804823

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

8

0

1

8

[{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1670450014847}]

["personal-decision-in-hindsight"]

0.5

1664606804670

1655341093561

0.25348417805646223

0.5401383896219192

FASM3dzl0iU6RNYa9QFD

{"NO": 178.91803278688505, "YES": 113.3914052150674}

0

will-the-eu-take-the-uk-to-the-euro

39.00000000000003

Will the EU take the UK to the European Court of Justice over the Northern Ireland Protocol?

1672531140000

WeIRq4XOuNNFbdIDKmq5I7Hn8O23

cpmm-1

0

2.1969340993006283

True

play

NO

public

1655310469503

Alex Catalán Flores

The European Commission today announced that they're prepared to take the UK to the European Court of Justice over the dispute surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol (https://youtu.be/z-uskqDjEZ8?t=128). Will it happen?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4918032786885246, "platformFee": 0.0819672131147541, "liquidityFee": 0.4918032786885246}

0

1672672908812

140.49180327868854

AlexCatalanFlores

1668609219213

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjbgviMoYtSQG8W9CqXCDbSEdeOcaadfDm_t-6STQU=s96-c

4

0

1

6

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414870}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1668609219110

0.65

fGmuawpUJZOS4EDFWK9Z

what-will-i-name-my-privatewagertra

202

What will I name my private-wager-tracking webapp?

1655864655975

U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.768089861622686

True

play

30a26668c605

public

1655315317744

keri

I'm looking for a name that is pithy and at least somewhat descriptive of the site - a place for nerdy folks/forecasters/truth seekers/rationalists to keep track of their private wagers with other people. Whichever option best captures the idea of "you go to this website to put your money where your mouth is", and can...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.56, "platformFee": 2.64, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655864655975

500

zoli

1655911042335

0

https://firebasestorage.…012-66f8660f9faa

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2450fa4912f3", "prob": 0.10964431384588395, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.2491404555566774, "userId": "U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.384320155302444, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fGmuawpUJZOS4EDFWK9Z", "createdTime": 1655315317898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

[{"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669093904797}]

["naming-suggestions"]

1655844037167

1655911037954

{"30a26668c605": 100}

True

BLCWmQZAUYMgO2P3EohW

what-will-be-the-party-of-the-next

3036.3050630624753

What will be the party of the next President of the United States? (Parimutuel Version)

1730869140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1655318991159

Predictor 🔥

The next presidential election of the United States of America is set to happen on November 5th of 2024. The party from which the elected president is shall be considered the winning outcome of this market. For the sake of this question, a president is considered to be from a specific party when: A) he/she is elected w...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.34251203123956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1717144580498

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

29

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ce87cb0e1b03", "prob": 0.0012411052203413452, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.15020006041362421, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 120.8710138962195, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BLCWmQZAUYMgO2P3EohW", "createdTime": 1655318991241, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

https://firebasestorage.…289-35117dd1d343

26

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475769}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529580379}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "group...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "donald-trump"]

1717144577352

1698958334785

False

True

0.2145213660218111

s4NzG4J9w7mbfaUkNecA

{"NO": 91.87401113399744, "YES": 811.296000182398}

0

will-the-sp500-close-under-2400-any

1445.6002122922662

Will the S&P500 close under $2,400 anytime before the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

3.4328551229091464

True

play

NO

public

1655319371016

Predictor 🔥

If the price for S&P500 (SPX) Index closes under $2,400 US dollars on any day between now and December 30th, 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. S&P's monitor will be the reference to resolve this market.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.196358558060105, "platformFee": 0.2091397291166814, "liquidityFee": 1.2548383747000884}

0

1672667626746

181.25483837470009

Predictor

1672480817910

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

19

0

1

18

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529426079}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576414}]

["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]

0.5

1672480817580

0.03

0.4945757354135208

8zdtbnMyi8AM7PKGenB4

{"NO": 124.19351581898871, "YES": 121.52780094564977}

1

will-rihanna-release-a-new-song-by

271.71890980654064

Will Rihanna release a new song by the end of 2022?

1666962559006

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-1

0

2.3822164549959775

True

play

YES

public

1655319686069

Trent Yazzo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In March 2022 Rihanna announced that she might release a new song \"soon\". If such a song is released by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Feats and participation in songs from other artists can also be taken into account, bu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2210907921295813, "platformFee": 0.24336767106465845, "liquidityFee": 1.4602060263879506}

0

1666962559006

121.46020602638795

kazoo

1666962546158

0

https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f

12

0

11

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541607}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1666913423592}]

["culture-default", "entertainment"]

0.5

1666962522771

1666962543568

0.5

AgT7MKVd3Qy4iPMBSmSP

yes-or-no

5

Yes or no?

1655320065272

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.003055295544427

True

play

d3c3dbce9ef2

public

1655320038902

Mr Stone

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655320065272

240

stone

1655320056956

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7845547aa602", "prob": 0.9070294784580499, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.69386925096977, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.143621598224398, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AgT7MKVd3Qy4iPMBSmSP", "createdTime": 1655320038985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1655320056761

{"d3c3dbce9ef2": 100}

True

0.8688695123414649

XtQih9PRIQZJSZP96DJG

{"NO": 1256.3080195201512, "YES": 924.9207121531846}

0.9000000000000005

will-hwang-junho-still-be-alive-whe

557.0149089146687

Will Hwang Jun-Ho still be alive when "Squid Game" returns for season 2?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.012394582545443

False

basic

public

1655320088049

Predictor 🔥

In season one of "Squid Game", the character Hwang Jun-Ho got shot and fell off a cliff into the sea. If season two reveals that Hwang Jun-Ho is still alive, this market will resolve to "Yes".

BINARY

{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27149321266968324, "platformFee": 0.045248868778280535, "liquidityFee": 0.27149321266968324}

0

1000

Predictor

1706625792906

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

12

0

4

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545099}, {"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh0GMczfxM1jBSdl", "createdTime": 1687533615020}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly",...

["culture-default", "netflix", "entertainment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.10178931044107141

0.5

1687052542700

0.507364909963723

Eerjaj6YgzfmIUeha9Xb

{"NO": 699.2361207403841, "YES": 17.912297062233975}

1

will-kim-jongun-still-be-supreme-le

1658.6930760242517

Will Kim Jong-Un still be Supreme Leader of North Korea by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

4.088707790317666

True

play

YES

public

1655320207305

Predictor 🔥

If Kim Jong-Un still holds the position of Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes". For the sake of this market, we'll consider Kim Jon-Un no longer as Supreme Leader of North Korea under at least two circumstances: 1) If the government of North Korea officially declares h...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.66877255861174, "platformFee": 0.7469358608053123, "liquidityFee": 4.481615164831874}

0

1672666585603

104.48161516483187

Predictor

1672284537750

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

29

0

1

27

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414736}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661104}]

["world-default", "north-korea"]

0.5

1672284537596

0.98

0.17575003327609642

C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V

{"NO": 3896.804611651647, "YES": 10538.69323837785}

0.07308032119302707

will-joe-biden-get-impeached-in-his

482092.4130637003

Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?

1727841540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.051039494340037767

2.0754345870281234

False

basic

public

1655320398169

Predictor 🔥

If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.013023142002838287, "month": 0.00940478835977776}

0

{"creatorFee": 95.02130808192943, "platformFee": 25.129388389982616, "liquidityFee": 3.6610861015017417}

0

4698.6610861015015

Predictor

1720048601662

1.6

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

20

1067

8

https://firebasestorage.…325-3985a57ae853

76

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.182172933886156

0.5

1720048598120

1719883706651

0.15488224388243094

jMkAEIRsuwZaueJ8jgCf

{"NO": 172.92349329980152, "YES": 6359.518116687708}

0

will-2022-be-the-warmest-year-on-re

13060.427750662322

Will 2022 be the warmest year on record?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.628723250492514

True

play

NO

public

1655320491162

Predictor 🔥

Every year, NASA releases data about the Global Temperature Index - a measurement of the change in global surface temperature in comparison to its historical long-term average. According to that data, 2016 was the hottest year on record, with an increase of 1.02°C in temperature. If data for the 2022 Global Temperatur...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.774080679682223, "platformFee": 0.3145172441143693, "liquidityFee": 1.887103464686216}

0

1673876280511

341.8871034646862

Predictor

1673582657861

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

36

0

4

34

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532531}, {"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1667949075583}]

["science-default", "weather"]

0.5

1671091075976

1673582652105

0

0.5024937000398613

AkUItbH5vtHHI6l6MSXb

{"NO": 7654.592330263927, "YES": 1.4837440758818978}

1

will-openais-dalle-be-made-commerci

17129.382708106677

Will OpenAI’s DALL-E be made commercially available by the end of 2022?

1660844806544

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

5.22785555239493

True

play

YES

public

1655320625236

Predictor 🔥

OpenAI trained a neural network called DALL-E to create images from text captions for an unseen number of concepts expressible in natural language. The company used the GPT-3 artificial intelligence as the groundwork for DALL-E’s development. Currently, OpenAI focuses only on the development of research projects, but ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 63.28738972871745, "platformFee": 0.3603837851197328, "liquidityFee": 2.1623027107183965}

0

1660844806544

102.1623027107184

Predictor

1660853274069

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

56

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444844}, {"name": "dall-e", "slug": "dalle", "groupId": "r9JgcMNAppnRwnjOPDBA", "createdTime": 1658529579335}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529587178}, {"n...

["ai", "technology-default", "dalle", "free-money"]

0.5

1660844796546

1660853273502

0.9899999999999998

0.16314429852865875

ZHtsTkZNKTlAILbLnrRV

{"NO": 156.41040472004406, "YES": 6733.038851822517}

0

will-prince-charles-be-crowned-king

13754.023676053983

Will Prince Charles be crowned King by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.9257980520529907

True

play

NO

public

1655320703247

Predictor 🔥

Prince Charles is heir to the throne of Britain since 1951 and is the oldest and longest-serving Prince of Wales in history. If by December 31, 2022, Prince Charles is crowned the first King of Britain after Elizabeth II’s reign, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If by December 31, 2022, Prince Charles is allowed to...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.909285112123209, "platformFee": 0.2417908530506979, "liquidityFee": 1.4507451183041873}

0

1672606043384

341.4507451183042

Predictor

1671136551314

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

87

0

1

64

[{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406876}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418951}, {"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral",...

["world-default", "stefans-group", "royal-funeral"]

0.5

1671136550067

1665512426399

0

0.19249595299343555

OGQtOEHIyXK7afHQ9C9P

{"NO": 263.07839580612693, "YES": 1729.3136089797863}

0

will-a-new-gta-be-announced-by-the

4653.094213044738

Will a new GTA be announced by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.7432457618649146

True

play

NO

public

1655320778378

Predictor 🔥

If by December 31, 2022, Rockstar announces that it is working on a new Grand Theft Auto game that has a set date of release, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of when the game is effectively released.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.05716681773919, "platformFee": 0.28454987851723484, "liquidityFee": 1.7072992711034092}

0

1672610745187

441.7072992711034

Predictor

1672559255741

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

35

0

1

32

0.5

1672547091893

1672559252947

0.03

0.446532121301415

IOc89ZVDOeGQAKrxBBfV

{"NO": 1075.1405437415874, "YES": 907.4002223315129}

0.4887345765032239

stormlight-archive-will-qnyvane-bec-5d1669b29fda

500.3269248990834

Stormlight Archive - Will [Qnyvane] become the Vessel of either (inclusive) of the Shards [Ubabe] or [Bqvhz] in Era 1?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.694739480156954

False

basic

public

1655320828845

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stormlight Archive - Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dalinar", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": " become the Vessel of either (inclusive) of the Shards ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Honor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"ty...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.025631125866631244}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.482777531177973, "platformFee": 0.5447053675735236, "liquidityFee": 3.2682322054411417}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719051669177

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

21

0

3

12

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659853630437}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492240}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "bo...

["cosmere", "books", "olivia", "fiction", "new-years-resolutions-2025"]

0.5

1719051666025

1704615732532

0.23518357654944658

mAtTfxfNgQGpMNhISRFb

{"NO": 104.83376093556068, "YES": 537.2007933070577}

0

will-alexei-navalny-be-released-by

454.747394645807

Will Alexei Navalny be released by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

3.0712928477167996

True

play

NO

public

1655320908999

Predictor 🔥

In February 2021, Russian oppositionist politician Alexei Navalny was sentenced to three and a half years of prison in a penal colony. If Alexei Navalny is released from prison at any point on or before December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. That resolution will not be reversed by any eventual imprisonm...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.3844735719260717, "platformFee": 0.43154571116685886, "liquidityFee": 2.5892742670011533}

0

1672610829468

182.58927426700114

Predictor

1708089856033

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

20

0

1

19

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420670}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1669240275960

1708089855515

0.06

0.5000167212404345

3iNJmYeRqvftBr2kopcx

{"NO": 50.66615549988845, "YES": 204.02632019735765}

0

will-tiktok-reach-2-billion-monthly

145

Will TikTok reach 2 billion monthly active users by August of 2022?

1659326340000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.977301042242403

True

play

NO

public

1655321057011

Predictor 🔥

If TikTok reaches 2 billion monthly active users on any given month by August 1, 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. This market will be resolved based either on official announcements made by TikTok, or on credible reports from reputable media that declare that the company has reached the referred milestone.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.23916267035908, "platformFee": 0.13954371774888233, "liquidityFee": 0.8372623064932939}

0

1659542508623

100.83726230649329

Predictor

1659298879126

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

6

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443330}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1670970785758}]

["technology-default", "tiktok"]

0.5

1659298878997

0.19894137069636264

0.4067213289126559

2N12olMC9YgSRj7M4JBE

{"NO": 810.808739513576, "YES": 1266.9154747930195}

0.304948244427257

will-the-next-edition-of-games-in-s

790.9270827882956

Will the next edition of games in season 2 of Squid Game take place in a different country?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

2.5395082657284843e-15

9.794345784455139

False

basic

public

1655321241936

Predictor 🔥

In season one of "Squid Game", it is mentioned that other versions of the games exist in other countries. If in season two either the game is played in another country or other countries' versions of the game are shown on screen, this market will resolve to "Yes".

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014251066189257366}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.905996390305873, "platformFee": 0.13954371774888233, "liquidityFee": 0.8372623064932939}

0

1000

Predictor

1718467771762

0.3

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

26

0

11

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529540655}, {"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh0GMczfxM1jBSdl", "createdTime": 1687533556668}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly",...

["culture-default", "netflix", "entertainment", "movies", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.09723166667461723

0.5

1718467768699

0.4693482151281377

7fCpkDWAebQ2AmOWd9M8

{"NO": 4427.253919745644, "YES": 38.9097551925684}

1

will-the-united-states-make-it-thro

5308.875256947214

Will the United States make it through to the Round of 16 in the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669756719716

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.445733671011052

True

play

YES

public

1655321462472

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market refers to the group stage of FIFA World Cup 2022. If the referred team qualifies for the knock-out stage of the tournament - i.e. at least the round of 16 - this market will resolve to 'Yes'.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.043045114625115, "platformFee": 0.33199844604079287, "liquidityFee": 1.991990676244757}

0

1669756719716

521.9919906762448

Predictor

1669756691175

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

35

0

31

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397130}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583182}, {"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseL...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "us-soccer", "us-politics"]

0.5

1669756691032

1669423156597

False

0.9894080831549684

0.5048557832212908

CL3896bPuauHLjlOIq73

{"NO": 9.106939855165592, "YES": 1139.7554967777728}

0

will-the-blue-jays-beat-the-orioles

1833.0501942106641

Will the Blue Jays beat the Orioles?

1655418974433

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

cpmm-1

0

5.088664470355027

True

play

NO

public

1655321871959

Andrew G

This question resolves to "YES" if the Blue Jays beat the Orioles on June 16 in Toronto. This question resolves to "NO" otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.53959249277545, "platformFee": 0.28122573052237865, "liquidityFee": 1.6873543831342717}

0

1655418974433

102.68735438313428

AndrewG

1655418944845

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c

5

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398180}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655418943493

1655401818489

0.6595794210684376

0.48983015944283137

rxpNgoUISNwoiWIILtas

{"NO": 22.590766084939105, "YES": 484.80057478904075}

0

will-this-market-be-open-for-the-ne

1155.4043086321435

Will this market be open for the next year?

1655603390440

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-1

0

3.8204406868036465

True

play

NO

public

1655324619919

1

Jun 18, 8:47pm: farming to try to make up for a mistake Jun 18, 10:32pm: ah, ‘‘twas wrong to farm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5790448311025975, "platformFee": 0.15678565045735934, "liquidityFee": 0.9407139027441559}

0

1655603390440

100.94071390274415

1

1655603375518

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

1

0

0.5

1655603374281

0.4898301594428313

tAu9XLLW4cFGbqO8wNkZ

which-month-will-the-starship-orbit

10

Which month will the Starship orbital test flight take place?

1655328634671

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.988398938453521

True

play

MKT

public

1655325783591

Mr Stone

When the test flight takes place, this will resolve to the answer of that month.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655328634671

380

stone

1655328685872

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "523e89dcf308", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.981244519434696, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.716061349081285, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tAu9XLLW4cFGbqO8wNkZ", "createdTime": 1655325783854, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529454952}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917895}]

["technology-default", "space"]

1655327971580

1655328684718

False

{"0a1fd2bc78ca": 10.428571428571427, "1ddc3574b776": 10.33333333333333, "49ffa8bd095e": 10.238095238095237, "bcfa014da132": 9.952380952380954, "cafdeba1d144": 29.000000000000004, "d0d77e9028a1": 9.857142857142856, "ee787557025f": 10.14285714285714, "f903792a5c61": 10.047619047619046}

True

0.5

OBD9U5rOu5LdioRsYQM4

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

which-month-will-the-starship-orbit-0dc74db3a111

0

Which month will the Starship orbital test flight take place?

1655327051504

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655327035467

Mr Stone

This question resolves to the month in which the first launch of the Starship is attempted.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655327051504

100

stone

1655327035467

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

0

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664056095229}, {"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1664056103409}]

["space", "spacex"]

0.5

Hbeirep6H6GXHFNiX6M1

which-month-will-the-starship-orbit-4c32ca709dc6

1014.239306302552

Which month will the Starship orbital test flight take place?

1672527540000

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.779957648835158

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655327130742

Mr Stone

This question resolves to the month in which the first launch of the Starship is attempted.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1619675949143675, "platformFee": 0.2904918987285919, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681354917921

879.9999999999999

stone

1681354844171

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "99e28d04b294", "prob": 0.12891367912481727, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.6367992920398255, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.574320867819935, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Hbeirep6H6GXHFNiX6M1", "createdTime": 1655327130986, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

21

12

[{"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1664055991179}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461373}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moW...

["technology-default", "space", "spacex"]

1672259225655

1681354841403

True

0.5000943840777803

zn6hHlzygirMOEj55t95

{"NO": 16.121011557134892, "YES": 628.2227720399944}

0

will-netflix-announce-before-the-en

1031.7361718574025

Will Netflix announce before the end of July that they're buying Roku?

1659337140000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

4.2437535378594315

True

play

NO

public

1655327238998

Adrian

Related market: https://manifold.markets/AdrianKelly/if-netflix-announces-before-the-end

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.557092289961588, "platformFee": 0.05589200894773945, "liquidityFee": 0.3353520536864367}

0

1659345207038

100.33535205368644

ahalekelly

1659303483444

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

13

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578180}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104675757}]

["economics-default", "internet"]

0.5

1659303482231

1658781530686

0.035531530067291144

0.4878767946782969

caHYFCOKPvbYrrEvpVRS

{"NO": 11.71854250788579, "YES": 944.9064256249827}

0

for-testing-purposes

845

For testing purposes ;)

1655327897387

AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1

cpmm-1

0

4.818110387706733

True

play

NO

public

1655327845763

David

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5614462501038148, "platformFee": 0.09357437501730245, "liquidityFee": 0.5614462501038148}

0

1655327897387

100.56144625010381

Salty

1699532451538

0

https://firebasestorage.…c05-2269bb61ea2b

1

0

0.5

1655327874763

1699532451056

0.5

0.4999067823030235

c1jfXYAHw3fPa7yaQ4fb

{"NO": 25.02166334076681, "YES": 408.05282799410617}

0

will-serena-williams-win-her-24th-g-3b0b60f60dbf

586.4437240094369

Will Serena Williams win her 24th Grand Slam singles title this year?

1657429260000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

3.6563859192724433

True

play

NO

public

1655328122707

Duncn

Previous market was resolved to PROB by a bug... apparently.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.017674497223061, "platformFee": 0.046480158510071395, "liquidityFee": 0.2788809510604283}

0

1657464439042

100.27888095106043

Duncn

1657361169562

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

8

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405409}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1657361168350

0.0577565164701136

0.500026419625171

rgf6UnTyqRT7KH3tfrpo

{"NO": 104.2506916449269, "YES": 96.81325307727376}

0.08

this-market-resolves-with-prob-of-t

8

This market resolves with PROB of the total amount bet modulo 100

1655417305944

fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2

cpmm-1

0

2.764046015992083

True

play

MKT

public

1655329067288

J. F. Jurchen

I WILL CLOSE THIS MARKET EARLY! At an arbitrarily-chosen time within 1 hour of the market closing time, I will resolve it based on the amount that is bet at that time. I will not bet in this market, since I know the time. For example, if M$555 is bet, this market will resolve with PROB 55 (paying out M$55 to YES and M...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.23148674613508624, "platformFee": 0.03858112435584771, "liquidityFee": 0.23148674613508624}

0

1655417305944

100.23148674613509

jfjurchen

1655417310568

0

https://firebasestorage.…a23-ba922a4bb5d6

2

0

0.5

1655401306884

1655417309510

0.08

0.494631461347381

fmpFcTKVgz3mhpoQiGRR

{"NO": 11.272718922262271, "YES": 1083.555212840261}

0

will-i-have-50-manifold-followers-b

1346.7276079384806

Will I have >= 50 Manifold Followers by time of close?

1655967540000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

4.803573066519164

True

play

NO

public

1655329207692

SneakySly

Currently I have 11 Manifold followers. If I reach at least 50 this resolves YES. Jun 15, 9:27pm: Currently at 16 Followers. Jun 17, 4:45pm: Up to 23 Followers

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.302388437543438, "platformFee": 0.6562858251910264, "liquidityFee": 3.937714951146158}

0

1655993481772

103.93771495114616

SneakySly

1655963311033

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

16

0

1

0.5

1655932361942

1655963305306

0.010079787100818244

0.2732978944881225

MVyEA2HJZ4m1sJPhIw8B

{"NO": 89.81556375577546, "YES": 436.45974790155606}

0

will-the-jones-act-be-repealed

389.18958755310376

Will the Jones Act be repealed?

1672531140000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

3.0218970698990217

True

play

NO

public

1655330392971

Nathan Young

Jun 15, 11:11pm: Will the Jones Act get repealed in its entirety and not replaced by an act doing exactly the same thing, this year?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.103987272043629, "platformFee": 0.35066454534060487, "liquidityFee": 2.103987272043629}

0

1672655964998

162.10398727204364

NathanpmYoung

1667397526398

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

8

0

1

9

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483218}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1667397526208

1655331460091

0.07

0.32014249297943254

7tnhBqC8ZSVprSon2cmQ

{"NO": 75.81693695872633, "YES": 1272.4980138377896}

0

will-path-of-exile-2-fully-release

1924.6008842422586

Will Path of Exile 2 fully release in 2023?

1704088740000

LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2

cpmm-1

0

2.738609220708164

True

play

NO

public

1655332810106

wavedash

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1484124872596215, "platformFee": 0.11852017433194856, "liquidityFee": 0.7111210459916912}

0

1704151489124

200.7111210459917

wavedash

1704151489315

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c

11

0

1

4

[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131750264}]

["new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703893154020

1690778074866

0.03

LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2

0.19694329264705188

SYQBrF5qe8SnVMtUV2Ho

{"NO": 871.7482286928458, "YES": 1496.1708209992871}

0.12502592061588133

will-scotland-leave-the-uk-by-2030

2124.918272373369

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2030?

1893412800000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0.055599979541082076

9.736551663830824

False

basic

public

1655332982924

N.C. Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004661205931085877}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8743910724738195, "platformFee": 0.2516622281795039, "liquidityFee": 1.085968912453777}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1719299739905

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

1

38

1

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-7225734ebf6d

19

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1674008066851}, {"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfwjHy"...

["scottish-independence", "politics-default", "stefans-group", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "uk-politics", "arbbot-inbox", "scotland"]

0.13240841071827555

0.5

1719299736849

1678088436931

0.5110255043634306

27wVR7EbUm4jKAa8Nc4M

{"NO": 135.72763143735983, "YES": 116.05783446645552}

0

do-i-have-sleep-apnea

203.35415429934906

Do I have sleep apnea?

1672556340000

9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2

cpmm-1

0

2.351173983563187

True

play

NO

public

1655337533988

extent_of_foxes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022, will I be diagnosed with sleep apnea or something very similar, to a degree that affects my life? NO if I \"technically\" have sleep apnea but it doesn't have any effect, or if some other sleep or lifestyle issue has a much larger effect o...

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extent_of_foxes

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1669405065117

1655348542612

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DxoLion1UK6kBZ9qGB3J

which-manifold-user-will-have-the-m

1459.2991713665922

Which Manifold user will have the most followers on July 1, 2022?

1656658740000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.653171042637664

True

play

12a582b2728b

public

1655337931791

Ben

Resolves to the user with the highest number of followers **of the options in this market** when I check on July 1, 2022. If there are ties, resolves MULTI equally weight between the tied users.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1656676703607

880

bcongdon

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0

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ANYONE

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1

1656657908247

1655901604377

{"12a582b2728b": 100}

True

ymUrlWhajYVo5Mm98Mci

testing-free-response-market-creati

0

Testing Free Response Market creation through API

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HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655338512652

Ben

Going to resolves as N/A

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655338594022

220

bcongdon

1655338513204

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

1

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ANYONE

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1655338512652

True

0.5128349583747247

yNbmMZcZ7WHcqU8KHvbk

{"NO": 1558.9402167031826, "YES": 7.134966991827438}

1

does-1-1-222d125ca61f

1459

Does 1 = 1 ?

1655342029944

pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3

cpmm-1

0

5.416111531827352

True

play

YES

public

1655342004825

samanddeanus

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samanddeanus

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i-will-resolve-this-to-any-punjoke

173

I will resolve this to any pun/joke you submit that my girlfriend enjoys

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7830180089201795

True

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MKT

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1655344905273

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1655919585681

799.9999999999998

LivInTheLookingGlass

1655916807359

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ANYONE

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1655916806082

1655875492803

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0.7219130495897782

HB3a6kWAhptJg8Ill8yT

{"NO": 3641.2712286112637, "YES": 3751.175828424753}

0.715904103592697

will-carbon-removal-be-pivotal-in-m

31204.327379784143

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

2524636800000

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cpmm-1

0.037266053121278786

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basic

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Daniel Reeves

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3741.4654284672556

dreev

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1.5

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0

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1716989986638

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{"NO": 899.1452884530456, "YES": 1239.1397525643424}

0.2265553499994264

will-bidens-approval-ever-exceed-50

2405.104205263178

Will Biden’s approval ever exceed 50% (sans emergency)?

1868936340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

6.156383674493296e-16

9.61185705210934

False

basic

public

1655346091061

Gigacasting

N/A in case of major national security crisis eg war, terrorist attack, or the like

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1000

Gigacasting

1719891289007

0.1

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0

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1

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0.5

1719891285898

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False

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{"NO": 273.6464928247001, "YES": 665.8418686341205}

0.02

poll-is-lamda-sentient

589.0021145631796

Poll: Is LaMDA sentient?

1655956740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.6007415503898885

True

play

MKT

public

1655349394263

Jack

What is your credence that LaMDA is sentient? (100% means definitely, 0% means definitely not.) Vote by commenting with a percentage between 0% and 100% at the start of your comment. This market resolves to the median % of people responding with a valid vote. Context: - https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/...

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1656087199673

352.86748643066517

jack

1656087600940

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529444322}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1655932288106

1656087595883

0.02

qMIWJxxuGBSgX4tF3FjH

what-will-be-best-coin-on-june-22nd

305.2782165186953

What will be Best Coin on June 22nd?

1655956800000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.735393555903459

True

play

b06ba81b3e3a

public

1655351155956

Adrian

On June 22, which Top 200 cryptocurrency will have had the largest 7 day percentage gain? As determined by the CoinMarketCap homepage at 9pm PT. Click to the next page to see more than the Top 100. If there are duplicate answers, only the one created first will count. https://coinmarketcap.com/

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1655959341569

560

ahalekelly

1655956747341

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

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1655956746142

{"b06ba81b3e3a": 100}

True

0.5121423330745907

mv3DB0CQKHUFyOjWKsdF

{"NO": 1452.0410692218175, "YES": 8.580939868647988}

1

will-carissa-in-planecrash-ever-rea

1480

Will Carissa in planecrash ever realize that Hell is not in fact torturing primarily as needed for the purpose of devil creation?

1658179800721

hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2

cpmm-1

0

5.315783431192263

True

play

YES

public

1655352207355

Jacob

In the planecrash continuity of glowfic (https://glowfic.com/board_sections/703), in the setting of Golarion (Pathfinder's default setting as interpreted by lintamande), people who die while Lawful Evil (or having sold their souls to a devil) go to Hell, where they are tortured extensively. The priesthood of the rulers...

BINARY

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1658179800721

102.54055803365291

JiSK

1658178052140

0

https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800

9

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393288}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547232}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1658178050882

0.9944021600583406

0.5060087135778802

R8kibk4VRDmuJOwaySdA

{"NO": 250.5663061590111, "YES": 43.68064115405193}

1

will-carissa-realize-before-woman-o

453.83727968911523

Will Carissa realize, before _woman of irori_ ends, that Hell is not in fact torturing primarily as needed for the purpose of devil creation?

1657954740000

hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2

cpmm-1

0

3.0740191053995503

True

play

YES

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1655352947593

Jacob

Same resolution criteria as for https://manifold.markets/JiSK/will-carissa-in-planecrash-ever-rea except that if the thread _the woman of irori_ ends without her having made that realization, this resolves No. Jun 17, 9:20pm: See caveat added to referenced market as of https://glowfic.com/replies/1822967#reply-1822967...

BINARY

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1658179806788

101.77444868976778

JiSK

1657904428908

0

https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800

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0

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0.5

1657904427711

0.8545639145380173

0.5133346852297749

u4aKXC7rtvAURAimmKkn

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1

k

3075

k

1655366386713

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cpmm-1

0

5.384473098340353

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YES

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1655366338888

Electricitypipe

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Electricitypipe

1655366350537

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

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1655366349243

0.5

0.30489157768817726

P2v72ZwjX52mCmX38XzH

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0

will-there-be-a-big-breakthrough-in

447.24089545598974

Will there be a "big breakthrough" in spiking neural networks in the next year?

1686974340000

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

1.5665640973629829

True

play

NO

public

1655382239634

Stephen Malina

In this interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Otcau-C_Yc), Geoff Hinton responded to a question about the next big thing in AI with an answer the *one* potential big thing is a better learning algorithm for spiking neural networks. This question will resolve positively if, a year from now, someone has proposed or...

BINARY

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1687431120399

280

StephenMalina

1686969442769

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

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["technology-default", "science-default"]

0.10030500984621499

0.5

1686969442548

0.17

0.4978497618944232

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{"NO": 65.96147035840335, "YES": 158.8200090493272}

1

will-any-member-of-the-uk-cabinet-r

59

Will any member of the UK Cabinet resign before 1 July 2022?

1656055950835

HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2

cpmm-1

0

2.8258802540367323

True

play

YES

public

1655386272880

Nico

This question resolves "YES" if any current member of the UK Cabinet (full list here: https://members.parliament.uk/Government/Cabinet) resigns before the beginning of July, and "NO" otherwise.

BINARY

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1656055950835

101.07994570403699

Nico

1656056003603

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c

2

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529477579}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1655400699963

1656055998411

0.29166696338598824

0.5002367455527031

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{"NO": 1023.6187845805832, "YES": 10.321092970370842}

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will-manifold-create-a-leaderboard

951.9849602130039

Will Manifold create a leaderboard of the most followed?

1655938916827

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

4.9269881034499505

True

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YES

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1655386327159

Scott Lawrence

Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by the end of July.

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1655938916827

101.33682906459381

ScottLawrence

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0

0.5

1655938216667

1655953936458

0.9900270592548135

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{"NO": 114.30047086257372, "YES": 90.01895184057611}

0.36

will-my-hypomaniaburst-of-productiv

204.3118712292429

Will my hypomania/burst of productivity go over a month?

1656657036167

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cpmm-1

0

2.7509935358076203

True

play

MKT

public

1655390358061

^,^ Épi

I'm finally getting a surge of productivity again, and am interested to see how long I can make it last. The two last ones hit a wall when I got sick (probably with covid), but it might be that they wouldn't have lasted anyway. I'll do my best to apply all the tools I've made so far/gleaned from CFAR and the rest. Thi...

BINARY

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0

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0

1656657036167

100.72592376720979

epiphanie_gedeon

1656657208035

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

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0.5

1656412122953

1656657203324

0.36

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{"NO": 23.257438288210324, "YES": 434.34355525805876}

0

will-i-be-able-to-participate-in-a

372.4416617786072

Will I be able to participate in a Discord thread within Beeper by the end of the year?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

0

3.748998422502095

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NO

public

1655393785508

wasabipesto

Beeper (https://www.beeper.com/) is a service that allows users to consolidate their chats into a single app. I use it for Discord, among other things. Many discord servers I participate in use threads, and I would like to participate in those threads via Beeper, but it currently lacks that functionality. There's a fe...

BINARY

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1672586636844

100.27149321266968

wasabipesto

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0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

3

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1

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["technology-default"]

0.5

1672233744951

1672233747140

0.05