CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.8947957578096712

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{"NO": 13090.858972645925, "YES": 226.41918936712682}

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will-there-be-a-nuclear-powerplant

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Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in 2023, in Germany?

1672690791680

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cpmm-1

0

2.5723236077742313

True

play

YES

public

1655394652451

Tim P

#politics #world #technology #energy Jun 16, 6:08pm: Resolves yes if there is a plant operating at any point .

BINARY

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TimP

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567958}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480691}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej",...

["politics-default", "technology-default", "economics-default", "world-default", "nuclear"]

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False

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{"NO": 121.0523420715298, "YES": 734.9873504511113}

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will-this-market-close-at-4

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Will this market close at 4%?

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cpmm-1

0

2.6793561981749128

True

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NO

public

1655395309007

Adrian

Jun 19, 5:30pm: Created a similar market: https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-this-market-close-at-69

BINARY

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ahalekelly

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0.5

1656035992069

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0.5

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6

will-btc-bounce-back-on-august

0

Will BTC bounce back on August?

1655396807018

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cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

MKT

public

1655396548575

최예찬

BTC had crashed many of the bank accounts including mine. Will it bounce back..?

BINARY

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1655396807018

100

bfb6

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0.5

0.6

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{"NO": 66.62978885143079, "YES": 155.04930812460037}

0

will-btc-bounce-back-on-august-6f07f533b762

118.41176021687784

Will BTC bounce back on August?

1655564340000

biatqvA8UTfE2mB2eBpgSf5wSYT2

cpmm-1

0

2.8279213495523345

True

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NO

public

1655396856019

최예찬

Jun 17, 1:30am: The BTC will be over the 33k line

BINARY

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0

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100.83980903333425

bfb6

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7

0

1

7

0.5

1655558058129

1694300071876

0.3

0.5167498075441238

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{"NO": 645.546136377098, "YES": 19.202451530037607}

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resolving-yes-to-feed-the-beast

546

Resolving YES to feed the beast.

1655398611937

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.056841054319793

True

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YES

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1655398544690

Matt P

Don't worry, it's all going towards funding my weekly, highly subsidized philosophy questions. Though I'd def prefer if I could just have manifold inject M$100 daily to those instead instead of cluttering my market history with these farming markets...

BINARY

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1655398611937

102.72318173741263

MattP

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https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

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0

0.5

1655398578746

0.5

kwZgo9ymXBn9VuXCJwOX

rerun-in-what-quadrant-will-the-plu

221.72347434032707

RERUN: In what quadrant will the plurality of takers of my political quiz from this website end up in?

1656647940000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.775836842408966

True

play

MKT

public

1655399372255

Enopoletus Harding

I will choose the answer on June 30. Here is my political quiz: https://enopoletus.github.io/quiz/ Post your scores (i.e., your exact scores, not just the quadrant -the latter answers will not be counted) in a comment here. I will not choose any response options other than those submitted by me.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1657043680018

460

EnopoletusHarding

1656647922708

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

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ANYONE

[{"id": "9cab5a5d3e0a", "prob": 0.1220192986266871, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.458603477782325, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.276971461741724, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kwZgo9ymXBn9VuXCJwOX", "createdTime": 1655399372344, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503052}]

["politics-default"]

1656647922553

1656647907995

{"5e8abc66f48a": 50, "bb0fde29bd40": 50}

True

kxBdjNLmP05K1fgfqRy1

who-will-be-selected-for-the-us-men

1384.2840783563156

Who will be selected for the US Men’s National Team roster for the World Cup?

1668091726468

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649201962482103

True

play

MKT

public

1655399386888

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve equally to all players selected for the USMNT World Cup roster. In the event of duplicates I’ll select the first answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It’s a 26 man roster, so e...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1668091726468

1999.9999999999986

Charlie

1666026911297

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f9d9b903833b", "prob": 0.004811058200984569, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.015953518580700606, "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.3000567881405454, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kxBdjNLmP05K1fgfqRy1", "createdTime": 1655399386969, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1

8

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406983}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583690}, {"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseL...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "us-soccer"]

1666026911118

1656104350962

{"03e3ebbb9151": 3.8461538461538463, "0b49688c3c41": 3.8461538461538463, "0c96a00a2883": 3.8461538461538463, "1abb084833a1": 3.8461538461538463, "25a9544fe528": 3.8461538461538463, "272859f130c7": 3.8461538461538463, "2b56edee95eb": 3.8461538461538463, "3674d3bedee7": 3.8461538461538463, "3cedba94a74b": 3.8461538461538...

True

0.5001212728640487

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{"NO": 15.080704871997455, "YES": 682.0233958081865}

0

will-this-account-be-on-the-leaderb

695.381594223969

Will this account be on the leaderboard before August

1659308340000

AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1

cpmm-1

0

4.3371573265532755

True

play

NO

public

1655399568064

David

I will not be buying or adding any Mana to this account. I will try and use the free starting M$1000 to profit as much as I can quickly. I've already made a few hundred Mana in just a couple of days. I'll abuse things like the free markets etc, but won't leverage any of my other accounts to benefit this one in any way...

BINARY

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0

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0

1659459262329

100.27149321266968

Salty

1699532584258

0

https://firebasestorage.…c05-2269bb61ea2b

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0

1

0.5

1659299051713

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{"NO": 10.751585066976034, "YES": 1031.467044947914}

0

is-asmodia-in-the-black-dome

1308.84654593994

Is Asmodia in the Black Dome?

1655546905009

NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2

cpmm-1

0

4.883399143528621

True

play

NO

public

1655400867819

Keller

Resolves yes if Asmodia was killed and resurrected in Osirion, or otherwise transported there while Carissa Sevar was convalescing.

BINARY

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Celer

1655521275428

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c

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0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392251}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544100}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

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{"NO": 261.7906340710647, "YES": 1279.843805265872}

0

will-the-fbi-nsa-or-cia-have-anothe

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Will the FBI, NSA, or CIA have another major cybersecurity-related document leak before December 31st, 2022?

1672549140000

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-1

0

2.454512513565856

True

play

NO

public

1655401175455

Eli Gaultney

This question resolves to "Yes" if at least 2 of the following sources carry the same story about a leak of documents related to their cybersecurity tooling or actions before the end of the year: NY Times, Washington Post, Philip DeFranco, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Politico, the Guardian.

BINARY

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1673108956921

381.2

EliGaultney

1671494868619

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

20

0

2

18

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452450}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1671494868445

0.03

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{"NO": 438.0760265108951, "YES": 371.0744330019868}

1

do-you-predict-polyamorous-males-ar-08d485f539d2

286.80249128086075

Do you predict polyamorous males are more likely to be into orgies?

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9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

1.0400654394376962

True

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YES

public

1655403462397

Aella

Reposting this due to a bug auto-resolving my last one In my survey, I asked males how poly were, on a monog-poly scale. I also asked how much they liked fetishes involving multiple partners, such as partner swapping, orgies, and gangbangs. If polyamory and "how much they like fetishes with multiple partners" correlat...

BINARY

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1656053846190

400

Aella

1655916928098

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

14

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522912}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1655916926940

1655421058507

0.7109625879344478

Vu1Zum7mEg7SojelQJ2y

whats-the-hardest-climb-ill-be-able-5fca6f020a29

76.17909637930865

What's the hardest climb I'll be able to do?

1662015540000

qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.909068920877457

True

play

1c00e3766eb1

public

1655405199903

Alice

I'm a complete beginner who's just starting to climb. What's the hardest bouldering problem I'll be able to do this summer? I'll resolve to the highest grade climb, indoors or outdoors, that I'm capable of completing twice. (Once feels like a fluke.) A couple friends have taken me bouldering in Joshua Tree and Kings ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1662216285605

440

Alice

1662216904824

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c

6

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ANYONE

[{"id": "ab859b5c04c9", "prob": 0.4701842450463214, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.256413211723505, "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.249747319172045, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Vu1Zum7mEg7SojelQJ2y", "createdTime": 1655405199985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

6

[{"name": "Outdoors", "slug": "outdoors", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "nXJagFYl8Vj4j6Z0ilYc", "createdTime": 1659511789210}]

["outdoors"]

1661960149969

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{"1c00e3766eb1": 100}

True

0.5000000000000001

MzMuSz3qd7q31wuFXaQr

{"NO": 82.60749526530152, "YES": 121.05439062017413}

0

i-will-sell-an-nft-today-on-either

22

I Will sell an NFT today. on either Tezos, XCP or ETH or Polygon. keepitweird.eth

1655441940000

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

2.790814850876351

True

play

NO

public

1655406938526

Arwyn Hughes

This will resolve to yes if i sell an nft before close of market.. I'm feeling lucky. But the market is bad.. You COULD levarge this bet.. i guess :)

BINARY

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100

ArwynHughes

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3

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1

0.5

1655417582263

0.40561097088020615

0.5000000000000001

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{"NO": 150.63062960584864, "YES": 66.38756026026543}

1

will-north-macedonia-get-vetoed-for

75

Will North Macedonia get vetoed for EU Ascension?

1655935140000

PZnIInE520cQKvTty0lOx1ND7uy1

cpmm-1

0

2.8559193112828005

True

play

YES

public

1655410606007

MatejMecka

North Macedonia is currently a member candidate to enter the European Union, and in order to join the European Union, each member has to go through a process known as ascension. On June 23rd the EU-Western Balkan leaders' summit would decide if North Macedonia can begin the process. This question resolves positively ...

BINARY

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100

MatejMecka

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0

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4

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1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508155}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1655919159058

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0.5000000000000037

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{"NO": 724.9340849796688, "YES": 13.794357593601717}

1

will-ethereum-fall-below-1000-at-an-955fd52e8025

1119.4997047559502

Will Ethereum fall below $1000 at any point during 2022?

1658802304358

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

4.478712105713409

True

play

YES

public

1655411771552

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.5662102643807547, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658802304358

100

StochasticParrot

1658801502565

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

3

0

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441317}]

["crypto-prices"]

0.5

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0.9813268898303814

0.32464196813422197

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{"NO": 113.24011279407901, "YES": 113.24011279407881}

0

will-natasha-asmi-win-the-thiel-fel

946.7598872059211

Will Natasha Asmi win the Thiel Fellowship for 2022?

1675832340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

2.8867030004394634

True

play

NO

public

1655411818465

Stochastic Cockatoo

BINARY

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0

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1676264902106

140

StochasticParrot

1675697614519

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

2

0

2

1

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071991}]

["please-resolve"]

0.5

1675697614346

0.32

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{"NO": 1698.4555689472775, "YES": 243.21018905895744}

1

will-last-week-tonight-with-john-ol-9427129d05ac

1805.7758841348807

Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024?

1677530305143

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0.8755833896118075

True

play

YES

public

1655412500757

Peter Berggren

This question resolves to "YES" if a segment discussing AI safety as its primary subject is aired on "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" before the start of the year 2024. A segment discussing AI safety within a specific subfield would count, while a segment discussing AI safety as only part of a greater theme would ...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 4.729672541436353, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677530305143

540

PeterBerggren

1677529683784

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

1

38

0

38

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542899}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1677529683604

1677484187230

0.93

EfsLB2fJdl73d5Vr3qv6

which-prompt-for-dalle-2-will-i-be

146.72548701846125

Which prompt for Dall-E 2 will I be most impressed by?

1656043140000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.858118509782061

True

play

MKT

public

1655412828277

Bionic

I have recently received access to Dall-E 2. I will enter each response to this market as a prompt, and resolve with the prompt which generated the coolest/most impressive/most beautiful images. Jun 24, 4:00am: An unbiased judge (my twin brother) chose this resolution. Those were great prompts!

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1656058295784

1100

BionicD0LPH1N

1656046898286

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

11

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "dall-e", "slug": "dalle", "groupId": "r9JgcMNAppnRwnjOPDBA", "createdTime": 1658529579425}]

["dalle"]

1656038414884

1656046895047

{"355b1d621ccb": 30, "4c108cf48949": 10, "723f0b8841e7": 20, "e05c926e54d3": 40}

True

0.49999999999999967

plzbCddGVB6a0NWft9xM

{"NO": 355.33442139037334, "YES": 28.14250294376606}

1

planecrash-jvyy-xrygunz-nccrne-va-g

851.577622629412

[Planecrash] Jvyy Xrygunz nccrne va "gur jbzna bs vebev"?

1656376927891

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-1

0

3.527669435942646

True

play

YES

public

1655413546673

Multicore

Will Keltham appear in "the woman of irori"? Specifically, will his character https://glowfic.com/characters/11729 be used for at least one tag that, in my judgement, is the real Keltham and not an impostor. Jun 21, 4:43pm: Carissa's model of Keltham doesn't count. If Keltham writes a letter in reply to Carissa and th...

BINARY

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0

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1656376927891

100

Multicore

1656376925984

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

16

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393389}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547729}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1656312693987

1656376920943

0.9266122648901701

Rp93Ien3uTL0p8SqTEFd

test-question-3f79e9f6446a

10

TEST QUESTION

1655416343641

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.988398938453521

True

play

fd73a752ff61

public

1655416269217

SneakySly

TEST, please ignore.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1655416343641

240

SneakySly

1655508824654

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

2

0

ANYONE

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1655416333253

1655508823624

{"fd73a752ff61": 100}

True

0.6627663577013511

iemIxOG4kQJxuFUDj13l

{"NO": 1951.3284283838268, "YES": 17.551978508739467}

1

round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a

19523.927331227547

(Round 2) Will any single trader be able to make M$100 buy buying and selling in this market?

1655514488441

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

5.545717703848904

True

play

YES

public

1655418984311

Undox

Copy of https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-any-single-trader-be-able-to-m, because it seemed to be fun. The profit is calculated as Σ(money collected by selling bets) - Σ(money spent on bets) Any "holdings" of YES/NO do not count towards this. This means the profit reported in on the page is ignored, as this is unr...

BINARY

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0

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0

1655514488441

458.86329155129414

Undox

1655519231099

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

17

0

0.5

1655511901208

1655519230199

0.9954440077024005

0.45216543649711993

laSw9H6CTAT3byBw1Hm7

{"NO": 112.02588298039946, "YES": 178.83559999232938}

0.34081549040806347

what-will-us-federal-spending-be-as

62.07440394294693

What will U.S. Federal spending be as a percentage of GDP in 2030?

1925103540000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655419440282

Scott Lawrence

Source for resolution: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S.

BINARY

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0

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140

ScottLawrence

1713974878709

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

5

0

4

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574981}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181868894}]

["economics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1713974875096

1655419549077

False

0.5

DEt5kypzjH5NTsLJtKVV

{"NO": 312.9604009435133, "YES": 31.95292429921483}

1

will-redacted-tell-the-truth-about

617

Will [redacted] tell the truth about our relationship to their parent?

1655419678887

r1H69Hk8LCZw6gvTCllmCX051zQ2

cpmm-1

0

3.3909131195513433

True

play

YES

public

1655419561707

Jimmy James

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.368698956745779, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655419678887

100

Jjmmm

1655419656430

0

https://firebasestorage.…86f-5884e826f34e

2

0

0.5

1655419656249

0.5

S6rmzmVWRtFPEy9AShhC

who-will-be-the-first-trillionaire

300.68821778877816

Who will be the first trillionaire?

1701748611528

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

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play

public

1655420095114

Mr Stone

The question will resolve as soon as there is somebody with a net worth of 1 000 000 000 US dollars.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

500

stone

1710451923872

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "23c7f6f563b0", "prob": 0.44655101255251467, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.232839746699625, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.94892412940181, "textFts": "", "contractId": "S6rmzmVWRtFPEy9AShhC", "createdTime": 1655420095193, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5534489874...

58

10

[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["world-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

1701737381567

1701748658490

True

fvVG4qjWZLYibG0X8Fzk

what-is-the-highest-value-bitcoin-w

1408.5612103137798

What is the highest value Bitcoin will reach during the last quarter of 2022? Rounded down to the nearest 5k, i.e 15k/20k/25k etc.

1672531482125

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.651436942523112

True

play

57a3649fdff0

public

1655421633418

Gigacasting

One day average price on Gecko

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14577975741241517, "platformFee": 0.03644493935310379, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672531482125

799.9999999999998

Gigacasting

1672531475991

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

13

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a31b72aec4b1", "prob": 0.005475291426536262, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.028750641938604365, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.2222286574029795, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fvVG4qjWZLYibG0X8Fzk", "createdTime": 1655421633513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

12

1672531475843

{"57a3649fdff0": 100}

True

KWsCdlff737rF7Vc6fVX

which-country-will-win-group-b-of-t

439

Which country will win Group B of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669754700000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.703752452120496

True

play

1c87f21f846c

public

1655423408453

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_B Betting concludes at the end of last match of the group stage (November 29). This market will be resolved according to tie-breaking criteria for group play (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_stage)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669755494797

560

egroj

1669510447391

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2554b3ef5392", "prob": 0.034420919658131426, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7798678671033648, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.8769313947703, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KWsCdlff737rF7Vc6fVX", "createdTime": 1655423408541, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

10

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400484}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583327}, {"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseL...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "us-soccer", "india"]

1669510447238

False

{"1c87f21f846c": 100}

True

0.5000000000000001

nXYjaEwheGlrnH5NyjGC

{"NO": 286.6513817757286, "YES": 34.885581008026875}

1

will-the-az-pipeline-fire-be-90-con

190

Will the AZ Pipeline fire be >90% contained by July 1st?

1656734340000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

3.3032199275244367

True

play

YES

public

1655423438854

Duncn

As per https://storymaps.esri.com/stories/usa-wildfires/ will the Pipeline wildfire be 90% or more contained by July? Jun 16, 7:50pm: (The benchmark will be 90%, rather than 91%.)

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 3.3486182242713936, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1656759285216

100

Duncn

1656694530193

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

3

0

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533531}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1656694528930

0.8915036681755043

0.21544124170886939

LHnSCwtCN3awzAJsWcUU

{"NO": 57.63758590948186, "YES": 1341.1534575890605}

0

will-luis-suarez-bite-another-playe

1846.3355765957517

Will Luis Suarez bite another player at the upcoming 2022 World Cup?

1670031716248

VQ75gPBE9dhIyLVFQogB6sGtmRO2

cpmm-1

0

4.7617224672077745

True

play

NO

public

1655424912023

ChickenSharoofi

Luis Suarez has bitten three players thus far in his career, including once at the World Cup. Compilation included here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy31pdfntUw

BINARY

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0

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1670031716248

154.42698415780785

ChickenSharoofi

1670024595550

0

https://firebasestorage.…04d-274a32fbec7b

29

0

27

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400553}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583395}, {"name": "FIFA 2022 Controversies", "slug": "fifa-2022-controversies", "userId"...

["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-controversies"]

0.5

1670024595378

0.011663675670633833

0.5512579689105944

l3NNQMACBg0AsImDpXa6

{"NO": 1642.1634908997185, "YES": 1366.0228882967808}

1

will-the-up-arrow-on-this-question-82b62fd465c0

79376.6707629083

Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?

1656043140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

0.2646726448897415

True

basic

YES

public

1655429925750

Predictor 🔥

Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally. Jun 24, 9:10am: YES (up arrow): 3055 NO (down arrow): 1853

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 2490.8754286655158, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656077345947

1509.498651669239

Predictor

1656047097086

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

20

0

1

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661914692966}]

["please-resolve"]

0.5

1656043139622

1656047095455

0.596250382997304

vzUN2bFZcuf1jh8Rk0KL

what-will-the-peak-mortgage-rate-be

549.4690918766794

What will the peak mortgage rate be in 2022?

1672325700000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.69427186930562

True

play

0ca41de057b5

public

1655430088904

Ben

Answers must be rounded to the nearest half percent (e.g. 5.5%, 6.0%, etc.) Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/FRMMAX-22DEC29/markets/FRMMAX-22DEC29-P5.5 (Except as a single resolution free response, instead of a range of binary markets) Jun 16, 6:41pm: Per the linked Kalshi market, this resolves u...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672678682662

459.99999999999994

bcongdon

1672678678686

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b1ff16657401", "prob": 0.0271827960186149, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4414041792254102, "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.796961400354213, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vzUN2bFZcuf1jh8Rk0KL", "createdTime": 1655430088992, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

6

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529577168}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422786524}]

["economics-default", "housing-markets"]

1671654641756

1672678675747

{"0ca41de057b5": 100}

True

iYUjFycIpSxAZoFaHzIf

what-does-sentience-mean

27

What does sentience mean?

1656043140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.94597476115825

True

play

MKT

public

1655431678019

Jack

Respond in the answers/comments. I will resolve to the answers receiving the most support in the comments (number of positive comments, roughly speaking), probably weighted by the amount of support. I'd also encourage people to comment proposing alternate criteria that they thing are more useful than sentience. The wo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656087726736

300

jack

1656088372091

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9031ead94bc0", "prob": 0.62000124000248, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.24633649019729, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.69917963484192, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iYUjFycIpSxAZoFaHzIf", "createdTime": 1655431678128, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

1

1655455591374

1656088368011

{"a26325b69538": 25, "a5ac552ffd06": 25, "a77c73416600": 25, "e01a61c5948d": 25}

True

0.5000000000000002

2twZfer09bO3ENaa0jfN

{"NO": 25.388954570926686, "YES": 393.87206637689417}

0

will-i-have-50-or-more-followers-on

349

Will I have 50 or more followers on July 1st?

1656647940000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.646713358948466

True

play

NO

public

1655431941826

David Glidden

Follow up to https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-i-have-25-or-more-followers-on Same resolution criteria, except with 50 instead of 25.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.968341247619899, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656675277091

100

dglid

1656628299510

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

4

0

1

0.5

1656628299359

0.060556439312030606

s9dlGR3v6Zg5Iuxdh1P5

what-is-good-7487495299f0

324

What is good?

1656075702018

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.72647012913984

True

play

MKT

public

1655432044149

1

Will resolve multiple choice Close date updated to 2022-06-24 11:59 pm Ignore that; i extended the close date just so I could add more manna to the ante

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.040000000000001, "platformFee": 3.2600000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656075702018

440

1

1656253373002

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

7

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1658529555316}]

["philosophy"]

1656075631179

1656253371604

{"1936f753d111": 10.81081081081081, "6151d1ad3831": 54.054054054054056, "6dc21e94879d": 2.7027027027027026, "aefb65b41f6c": 10.81081081081081, "d6e81c9fea67": 2.7027027027027026, "dd1c392857ef": 2.7027027027027026, "f84cb26fccc3": 16.216216216216218}

True

0.5000000000000002

qlHzdLipuUtW5QVV3Vgn

{"NO": 455.931295309309, "YES": 21.933129186089104}

1

will-ethereum-drop-below-1000

360

Will Ethereum drop below $1000?

1655560411414

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

3.827554236171534

True

play

YES

public

1655436301247

Bolton Bailey

... by the end of the year, per coinmarketcap.

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BoltonBailey

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will-drakes-new-album-outsell-kendr

120

Will Drake's new album outsell Kendrick Lamar's "Mr Morale and The Big Steppers" in first week sales?

1655873940000

HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2

cpmm-1

0

2.871271738654662

True

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NO

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1655438728530

Mvem

Resolves yes if "Honestly, Nevermind" sells more than 295,500 album equivalent units in it's first week

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Mvem

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planecrashrot13in-the-planecrash-ma

3103.1432412762792

[Planecrash][Rot13]In the planecrash main continuity, Vf Xbein Gnyynaqevn certanag jvgu xrygunz'f puvyq?

1680572673381

zyqSHXXfXFMQebN2IaAw3Eaaz1E2

cpmm-1

0

2.6297974212796094

True

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NO

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1655441764370

QTesseract

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to Yes, if: It is revealed that Korva is pregnant with Keltham's child, and already was 5 days into Woman of Irori, or It is revealed that Korva was pregnant, and miscarried or aborted the child. This question resolves to No,...

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QTesseract

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{"NO": 1380.8371768850839, "YES": 622.7918873511463}

0.6106372951651656

conditional-on-being-nominated-by-t

10641.513191076461

Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?

1733029140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0.13436492680003903

9.67422974117316

False

basic

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1655442690409

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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{"NO": 23.215063732696734, "YES": 430.7547941777013}

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will-the-issue-transfer-interactive

480

Will the issue "Transfer Interactive Brokers account to USA" in my issue tracker be closed by market close time?

1658041140000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

3.755782151169928

True

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NO

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1655442792038

Rai

I've moved to USA. I've now been here ~6 weeks. I need to transfer to a new IB account because of that. Market resolves to YES if the issue in my issue tracker has been closed by market close. This would probably happen if I start the stock position transfer and it arrives on the new account.

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agentydragon

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1658030597666

1657729155094

0.05113789677480922

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bundesliga-23-which-footballsoccer-f6f89e64401f

60769.042528133585

Bundesliga '23: Which football/soccer team will win the German Bundesliga 2022/2023?

1685201907521

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.616833640548599

True

basic

a0a4cf3fea23

public

1655459831784

howtodowtle

https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga In the case of duplicate answers, I will consider only the first one added (e.g., if Team A wins and there are multiple answers "Team A", only the first one that was added is resolved as correct).

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1685201907521

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howtodowtle

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https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

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ANYONE

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["sports-default", "football", "soccer"]

1685201897236

1684674331631

False

{"a0a4cf3fea23": 100}

True

0.16796347571083214

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{"NO": 178.2764135101611, "YES": 8205.09292056617}

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will-there-be-a-scottish-independen

13175.326931952506

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum by 2024?

1704024000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

4.878818632061897e-16

2.515050591597344

True

play

NO

public

1655460508809

N.C. Young

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NcyRocks

1704073172240

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["scottish-independence", "politics-default", "uk-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1701457625333

1665742914930

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{"NO": 3354.7110782196914, "YES": 2.980882635445141}

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t

3255

t

1655468618249

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.352051183791726

True

play

YES

public

1655468598282

Electricitypipe

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100

Electricitypipe

1655468614746

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https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

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1655468613409

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0.32950795790439097

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{"NO": 268.0147866143666, "YES": 3824.073444059571}

0

will-the-deep-mr-paper-we-wrote-get

4619.530915029764

Will the Deep MR paper we wrote get >1 citation before the end of 2022?

1672549140000

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

1.0007863836949005

True

play

NO

public

1655471935054

Stephen Malina

As part of the research I did in my prior role, we wrote a paper ((https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.01.478608v1.abstract) describing the method we worked on and results. As of now, it has 0 citations. Will it have one or more citations by the end of the year?

BINARY

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0

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1672582207810

740

StephenMalina

1672547069435

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0

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[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525530}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1672547069274

1671259361652

0.03

0.49999999999999956

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{"NO": 8.259529238828264, "YES": 1210.7227556008556}

0

will-crude-oil-close-over-111-on-24

1165.295656091254

Will crude oil close over 111$ on 24.06. ?

1656107940000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

5.305050013674567

True

play

NO

public

1655480932365

Tim P

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF

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0

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1656109526992

100

TimP

1656105521838

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574910}]

["economics-default"]

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1656105520160

0.006775758221879749

0.1647915368928466

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{"NO": 129.68048516598483, "YES": 2583.440332234704}

0

will-crude-oil-close-over-111-on-ju

6374.477228697666

Will crude oil close over 111$ on June 24th, 2023?

1687665540000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

3.514189895017607

True

play

NO

public

1655481694524

Duncn

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.954632799518122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1687695710805

300

Duncn

1687664958983

0.5

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

23

0

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["economics-default", "world-default", "global-macro"]

0.12496834118304706

0.5

1687664958856

0.01

gHOvRaDAH5V4J1TAhJBp

which-city-will-be-chosen-to-host-t

0

Which city will be chosen to host the US World Cup in 2026?

1655482158827

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655482022228

Eli Gaultney

I'll resolve this as soon as the winner is announced, presumably well before 2026.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655482158827

220

EliGaultney

1655482023770

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "84f95aa1daf5", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gHOvRaDAH5V4J1TAhJBp", "createdTime": 1655482022374, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406093}]

["sports-default"]

1655482022228

True

9Z4jZgqImJtWD4Mzd6Kt

which-city-will-host-the-2026-fifa

51

Which city will host the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

1655943055860

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.900324273278573

True

play

MKT

public

1655482225925

Eli Gaultney

Cities include: 🇺🇸Atlanta 🇺🇸Boston 🇺🇸Dallas 🇲🇽Guadalajara 🇺🇸Houston 🇺🇸Kansas City 🇺🇸Los Angeles 🇲🇽Mexico City 🇺🇸Miami 🇲🇽Monterrey 🇺🇸New York / New Jersey 🇺🇸Philadelphia 🇺🇸San Francisco Bay Area 🇺🇸Seattle 🇨🇦Toronto 🇨🇦Vancouver I'll resolve this as soon as the winner is announced. (http...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.799999999999999, "platformFee": 1.1999999999999997, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655943055860

499.9999999999999

EliGaultney

1655943081607

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

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[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529397405}]

["sports-default"]

1655931067757

1655943078385

{"0144c5ab7681": 3.3649224007691254, "051e30876f7e": 3.474797417937097, "2383a70f5865": 3.4198599093531103, "308b5b639c6c": 3.30998489218514, "652a0bc785db": 3.4473286636451044, "677ca540740f": 28.842192006592494, "9a8e774c5b60": 4.106578766652933, "a11a62293a8d": 3.3374536464771323, "a56b020a6beb": 3.3923911550611185,...

True

0.49999999999999506

dq21XSIpp5j8teJuWbMf

{"NO": 963.28838568793, "YES": 10.381107203798138}

1

will-manifold-add-loans-or-a-simila

2444.4817230189615

Will Manifold add loans (or a similar feature to incentivize long-term markets) back?

1663178312739

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

4.2968076837787414

True

play

YES

public

1655482306113

Enopoletus Harding

This question resolves to Yes if Manifold adds loans or another feature to incentivize long-term markets back before the end of the year, no otherwise. Currently there is no incentive to bet on long-term markets other than the greater fool theory of investing, so their results are likely to be highly unreliable.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 6.892840766719969, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663178312739

100

EnopoletusHarding

1663178389550

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

17

0

20

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661172657880}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "free-money", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1663178256293

1663178386066

0.989338161173185

0.5

yDXTELH9TBHcWDAMTdNe

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

which-country-will-win-group-a-of-t

0

Which country will win Group A of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1655483323707

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655482694027

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_A Betting concludes at the end of last match of the group stage (November 29). This market will be resolved according to tie-breaking criteria for group play (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_stage) Jun 17, 12:26pm: Ups, this should have ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655483323707

100

egroj

1655482694027

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409642}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670361258379}]

["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

0.5000000000000011

hbvVtgqFwEbMqs00aQkk

{"NO": 999.1089108910891, "YES": 10.008918838569002}

1

do-i-want-free-mana-to-subsidize-in

900

Do I want free mana to subsidize interesting questions later?

1655485167246

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.9849522407309435

True

play

YES

public

1655483712050

Matt P

Well.... do I?

BINARY

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1655485167246

100

MattP

1655483721959

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

0

0.5

1655483720534

0.9900815162078245

0.5682831014326848

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{"NO": 549.7425669158552, "YES": 2208.439210411434}

0.24680204003635614

will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re

27838.89896915704

Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?

2524715940000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0.07831071235534558

8.24138383710677

False

basic

public

1655484641862

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window below $10k or above $100k", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 66.84394957053527, "platformFee": 17.1463516802381, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1265

Gigacasting

1720175274383

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

3

106

3

49

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658529538695}]

["crypto-speculation"]

0.15486042203326444

0.5

1720175271330

1710140970694

0.6793618518808218

tjdWknlgK87lja2BkgQ8

{"NO": 615.0000000000002, "YES": 36.80672268907563}

1

will-blockfi-pause-withdrawals-or-c

1121.9262006068802

Will BlockFi pause withdrawals or cease operations in 2022?

1668348412740

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

4.316378807230576

True

play

YES

public

1655488589859

Ben

Resolves YES if BlockFi pauses withdrawals for at least 24 hrs, files for bankruptcy, or otherwise becomes insolvent in 2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.30903264076565, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668348412740

120

bcongdon

1668335708897

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

14

0

15

0.5

1668196322411

1668335705833

0.9725293592473051

0.4999999999999952

SctJmFzo4EoRh3nxYjOC

{"NO": 1026.3279162796698, "YES": 9.743474616035982}

1

will-more-than-15000-startup-employ

1219.053971662961

Will more than 15,000 startup employees be laid off in June?

1657152184099

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

5.029046419971721

True

play

YES

public

1655488852230

Adrian

Will resolve yes if the layoffs.fyi chart passes 15,000 for June. I will wait one week after the month ends to resolve no, to allow for reporting lag. Jun 17, 11:02am: Currently at 8,901. May was 16,985 https://layoffs.fyi/ Updated version of this question: https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/how-many-startup-employe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.618112057369242, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657152184099

100

ahalekelly

1657132154064

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

9

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570262}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1657132153920

1657116657384

0.9905957497700881

0.5000000000000002

0qkwHTOGGWmdsFCFKqUa

{"NO": 15.242657904710427, "YES": 656.0535611646606}

0

someone-will-send-over-25-eth-to-ke

749.6048295656333

Someone will send over .25 ETH to keepitweird.eth by midnight UTC today.

1655510718547

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

4.329623647653289

True

play

NO

public

1655488867880

Arwyn Hughes

This will resolve to YES if keepitweird.eth recieves over 0.25 ETH by midnight UTC

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.848213549677826, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655510718547

100

ArwynHughes

1655510145477

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1655510144365

1655498309507

0.7521081815657511

HbXpWI5TM6LvtBM6gfsN

which-driver-will-win-the-2022-f1-c

146

Which driver will win the 2022 F1 Canadian GP?

1655667792013

ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.81458639288056

True

play

f4cbec992c08

public

1655489030095

Leo

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.24, "platformFee": 1.56, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655667792013

459.99999999999994

Leo

1655667789571

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "87e644549865", "prob": 0.19578667084344897, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.384257622716033, "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.54677661106838, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HbXpWI5TM6LvtBM6gfsN", "createdTime": 1655489030186, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400017}]

["sports-default"]

1655667788246

{"f4cbec992c08": 100}

True

0.4999999999999998

R8iMSkl9RJfAyU0Gpq06

{"NO": 156.967204915338, "YES": 63.70757512942655}

1

should-i-keep-calling-rationalists

546.0277973124665

Should I keep calling rationalists "rats"?

1656745140000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

2.8733797104233134

True

play

YES

public

1655493000937

Sinclair Chen

Shall I continue to call fans of LW/EA/ACX, centered on the Bay Area, "rats" instead of "rationalists"? If you don't know what this means, begone! ya got no edge. On close, I'll resolve to what I think, based on comments here and elsewhere. I like "rat" because it's short, cute, and crafty, wheras "rationalist" is log...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.614398720754677, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656877786797

100

Sinclair

1656888935530

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

15

0

1

0.5

1656713429831

1656888931945

0.7113055913480312

0.9407771344838359

RMkB9qBIrAdpxYrwEgyK

{"NO": 805.2342090459963, "YES": 215.2952349546444}

0.9834474082146195

is-j-f-jurchen-honorable

2264.518849038577

Is J. F. Jurchen honorable?

1655509108882

fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2

cpmm-1

0

6.5661844633461515

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655493017622

J. F. Jurchen

Resolves NO if I buy more shares on https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a in spite of my affirmation at https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#5XewfuzlGoseCOH1Ti7g. Resolves N/A if Undox says that I am not actually at M$100 after all (as my affirmation is void in...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655509108882

300

jfjurchen

1655509653327

0

https://firebasestorage.…a23-ba922a4bb5d6

5

0

0.5

1655502275073

1655509650794

0.9834474082146195

0.6524419109793785

VA9NhWzooQ655aAUWS9s

{"NO": 500.7662682077978, "YES": 318.4664656837409}

1

planecrash-pnevffn-vf-ynjshy-rivy-n

892.5535052311764

[planecrash] Pnevffn vf Ynjshy Rivy ng gur raq bs cynarpenfu

1672635540000

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

cpmm-1

0

1.0647631144574266

True

play

YES

public

1655493502842

Garrett Baker

Resolves YES if planecrash ends wirh Carissa reading Lawful Evil. Resolves NO otherwise Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.325595054289984, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703791259738

380

GarrettBaker

1703791260509

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c

40

0

73

36

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392829}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544887}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1672560795874

1703610154344

0.75

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

ppRB6SXQyWuYnFCD2UEJ

planecrash-what-alignment-will-kelt

2166.374731226518

[Planecrash] What alignment will Keltham be at the end of Planecrash?

1682913540000

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6407744565633156

True

basic

c0286269dcf3

public

1655493905180

April

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if it's not clear (such as if he takes some major alignment-changing action and it isn't stated where he ends up). If he gets true-killed it'll resolve to the alignment he has when he dies. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Jul...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5531697542483244, "platformFee": 0.1382924385620811, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1694801063755

1480.0000000000007

April

1694778923745

0

https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177

33

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a0d5ee49953d", "prob": 0.002702458623458903, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00995567431402174, "userId": "xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.6739765152857493, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ppRB6SXQyWuYnFCD2UEJ", "createdTime": 1655493905251, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

28

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393495}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547799}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

1682355811286

1694778922151

{"c0286269dcf3": 100}

True

0.5000000000000006

e7pMvbQs3fmF5xydnQc6

{"NO": 330.8916941563843, "YES": 30.221369035856895}

1

conditional-on-jurchenhonorable-res

2407.1814819842975

Conditional on Jurchen-Honorable resolving N/A, will Jurchen have at least +100 on Undex-Round-2?

1655638785884

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

3.4495044757910316

True

play

YES

public

1655494324223

Gurkenglas

https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/is-j-f-jurchen-honorable#c4njb0X6cRFXjr9buTzT https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.85000067760842, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655638785884

100

Gurkenglas

1655651754281

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

3

0

0.5

1655522580354

1655651752745

0.9163105073832007

0.5000000000000053

qOTu05p9mIjVfEeYkOcO

{"NO": 5996.323546640884, "YES": 1.667688529849329}

1

is-j-f-jurchen-metahonorable

5900

Is J. F. Jurchen meta-honorable?

1655509210235

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

5.326383530752652

True

play

YES

public

1655494503842

Adrian

Will J. F. Jurchen resolve this market in accordance with the market description? https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/is-j-f-jurchen-honorable

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6764533591162345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655509210235

100

ahalekelly

1655509196668

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1655509196523

1655509164410

0.9900292903062207

0.46586354753655285

mgVqcLCWEoP0ookYjZZo

{"NO": 120.29716020019862, "YES": 1583.4731828867025}

0

will-i-experience-montezumas-reveng

1276.1555595858235

Will I experience Montezuma's Revenge during my trip to Mexico City?

1656651540000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.413339349419432

True

play

NO

public

1655497748728

SG

I'm in Mexico City from today until the 30th for #Mexifold. Will I get some form of food poisoning during my time here that results in a major and noticeably unpleasant case of diarrhea? (Minor diarrhea or a mildly upset stomach would not count.)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.0392992076873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656684921372

400

SG

1656684949887

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

13

0

1

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435715}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656608097004

1656684948302

0.062142407295614877

0.5

4T2Mh15ozjxlcqBcb3yJ

{"NO": 35.054436911245375, "YES": 285.2705928587324}

0

i-will-recieve-at-least-01-eth-toda

351

I will recieve at least 0.1 ETH today into the account keepitweird.eth before Midnight UTC

1655510624786

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

3.2985669751408415

True

play

NO

public

1655497759232

Arwyn Hughes

This post is a hedge against my original post earler today of will i receive 0.25ETH. https://manifold.markets/ArwynHughes/someone-will-send-over-25-eth-to-ke This post will expire to yes if i receive JUST 0.1 ETH into my account keepitweird.eth before midnight BTC. Users can now offset risk on a more risky investme...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.620432873171082, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655510624786

100

ArwynHughes

1655510678475

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655510171659

1655510677005

0.8136622459392565

6JBUrhRRY9NjW0qHLnOF

which-book-will-i-like-best

1331.380618038445

Which book will I like best?

1696143540000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.658078042927313

True

play

ff3baf3be30d

public

1655498428837

Daniel Reeves

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I hereby commit to reading the top 2 books suggested by this market. I will resolve this market to whichever of those two I like best. If you suggest something I've already read or that I want to veto for whatever reason, I'll add a comment to say ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.24711401080574436, "platformFee": 0.06177850270143609, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1696576386681

1499.9999999999995

dreev

1696637470187

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

29

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7ef592252e3b", "prob": 0.0077133467535069515, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0390293935818869, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.020952327600528, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6JBUrhRRY9NjW0qHLnOF", "createdTime": 1655498428916, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

2

27

[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559214}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622601}]

["books", "recommendations"]

1694893232572

1696637469446

{"ff3baf3be30d": 100}

True

XpJXPfPxYYqV1xNuTeoA

who-agrees-adrian-is-a-not-very-nic

511

Who agrees Adrian is a not very nice, and should be more polite on manifold markets?

1655510125082

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.693715545269043

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655498749253

Arwyn Hughes

I have quietly been contributing every day here, minding my own business. and today i had a lot of interaction with user : ahalekelly https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly He has come and said bad things to me and that i should feel bad.. Now i do feel bad and i want to leave this plaform because of that. So thanks A...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655510125082

280

ArwynHughes

1655510002836

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f47ae0606ba9", "prob": 0.02678659920015215, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7702902805300713, "userId": "I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.9862635012466, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XpJXPfPxYYqV1xNuTeoA", "createdTime": 1655498749470, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1655509754282

1655509997802

True

0.4999999999999999

43k4QOTTqw4OPygDe2uc

{"NO": 232.45558338129385, "YES": 43.018970998847266}

1

will-the-linked-market-receive-at-l

135

Will the linked market receive at least one new unique better by the time of closing?

1655502696670

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.1182863623386634

True

play

YES

public

1655499821823

Charlie

I've got big plans for this little fellah: https://manifold.markets/Charlie/who-will-be-selected-for-the-us-men

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5444166187061548, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655502696670

100

Charlie

1655502602044

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396098}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1655502600849

0.8438368614638605

0.5

mfMQLUTiHEo07GR9F1XN

{"NO": 31.85330394164765, "YES": 313.9391762411553}

0

poll-is-betting-on-a-yesno-market-a

465.0475750264453

Poll: is betting on a yes/no market after the outcome is known bad?

1656129540000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.3941372891710464

True

play

NO

public

1655502706934

Jack

Do you think it's bad to bet (or allow betting) on a market after the outcome is known? For this question, please consider only binary (yes/no) markets. Vote by commenting with YES, NO, or a percentage at the start of your comment. (YES = 100%, NO = 0%, you can also choose any percentage in between if you think it's e...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.013248732399485, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656289027443

100

jack

1670681781968

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

10

0

1

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1666886372587}]

["polls"]

0.5

1656078254340

1670681778129

0.09211682083083017

r3PB7MYYuTrIVdyvw6vl

in-what-month-will-china-invade-tai

827.7253602361626

In what month will China invade Taiwan?

1925009940000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655503553065

GeorgeVii

Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1858602248906036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1239.9999999999995

GeorgeVii

1717321094712

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

0

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8662d7fd74cb", "prob": 0.45688969638404975, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.048337396940475, "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.133292183196797, "textFts": "", "contractId": "r3PB7MYYuTrIVdyvw6vl", "createdTime": 1655503553137, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

10

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421596}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561378}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4B...

["china", "world-default", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict"]

1717321091164

1717303263085

True

0.5000000000000008

6nKgtXSqYE8SXAIg5WFk

{"NO": 515.0523700756147, "YES": 19.415501376164737}

0.9636732114066535

who-thinks-arwynhughes-is-going-a-b

503

Who thinks ArwynHughes is going a bit overboard?

1655585180741

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-1

0

3.9879521332042356

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655504096986

Mr Stone

See: https://manifold.markets/ArwynHughes/who-agrees-adrian-is-a-not-very-nic I think this is cyber bullying (too?) and will resolve this to what I think.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655585180741

100

stone

1655585178579

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

2

0

0.5

1655504933517

1655585175096

0.9636732114066535

dN8PEWwuwCun2lP5S1Sx

-0a906cccd6cf

5

💸?

1655505104099

r1H69Hk8LCZw6gvTCllmCX051zQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.003055295544427

True

play

06b021b8856d

public

1655505060715

Jimmy James

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655505104099

240

Jjmmm

1655505089601

0

https://firebasestorage.…86f-5884e826f34e

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a324f39fc0c2", "prob": 0.9070294784580499, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.69386925096977, "userId": "r1H69Hk8LCZw6gvTCllmCX051zQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.143621598224398, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dN8PEWwuwCun2lP5S1Sx", "createdTime": 1655505060796, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1655505089444

{"06b021b8856d": 100}

True

0.5

hg5yL4h7B8pTp5JrLsuQ

{"NO": 10.209123949917398, "YES": 979.5159750294641}

0

will-julian-assange-be-extradited-t

1113.2794629076202

Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States in June?

1656647940000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

4.952614728339423

True

play

NO

public

1655507965964

Predictor 🔥

Jun 17, 7:19pm: *June 2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.20456206291548, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656680724086

100

Predictor

1656634181327

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

13

0

1

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420184}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1656634181167

1655829204097

0.010315110691287094

0.5

uOVziOmh3SjkPqd1OWMR

{"NO": 8.593745253493141, "YES": 1163.6370063372829}

0

will-supreme-court-justice-clarence-55e8faecc432

1789.24286107192

Will Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas resign in June?

1656647940000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

5.2380455888933275

True

play

NO

public

1655508059003

Predictor 🔥

*June 2022

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.120132590796998, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656680730873

100

Predictor

1656618925378

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

14

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509753}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529433361}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "scotus"]

0.5

1656618925249

0.007331103745428106

0.5000000000000332

wh1VgEVmsxc3ATO7KBw7

{"NO": 5096.727991925507, "YES": 1.9620431021321565}

1

will-this-question-resolve-on-an-ev

5234.2955342779815

Will this question resolve on an even day?

1655919132443

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

5.332165687905286

True

play

YES

public

1655509798578

Bionic

Every day, I will look at the new numbers on this public number generator website (https://avkg.com/en/daily-random/). If any of the three random numbers from 1 to 50 are 45 or above, I will resolve to NO if it is an odd day of the month, and to YES if it is an even day of the month. If all numbers are under 45 until t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.469076889893687, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655919132443

100

BionicD0LPH1N

1655919058471

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

4

0

0.5

1655919058336

1655794803741

0.3645751199204903

DDu85rkGPuxsvGS7xu0V

every-other-answer-wins

296.30483762895267

Every other answer wins.

1655967540000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.762796072107265

True

play

MKT

public

1655510050188

SneakySly

After this market closes, I will go down the list from top bet to smallest bet, counting every OTHER answer as an equal winner. For example: Highest bet Second highest bet --> WINNER Third highest bet Forth highest bet --> WINNER etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.745896546465678, "platformFee": 2.1864741366164195, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656009917755

2680.0000000000027

SneakySly

1655966157887

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "99fb85d1e9b3", "prob": 0.10162120898315723, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4914041356043073, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.184706791707073, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DDu85rkGPuxsvGS7xu0V", "createdTime": 1655510050257, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

1655966156440

1655525954864

{"00108a7f4f1b": 1.9544533839583005, "0d11aec96ad6": 1.8488232922993504, "138714029b8e": 1.8363962226924144, "3185bdd0d3c3": 1.7183390614265288, "3a8549ff6fd3": 0.8916422442976155, "3bbece054c93": 2.011362810176554, "40bf45152dc5": 1.6686307829987874, "495fd6d99dd4": 1.6437766437849173, "4c404e9fe084": 1.29241523912128...

True

0.49999999999999994

9Pks9RKIQr4GJVfpHYcS

{"NO": 372.32014774079363, "YES": 26.85860558629217}

1

pineapple-is-ok-on-pizza

335.49737894298914

Pineapple is ok on Pizza

1657314168038

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

3.580779574373729

True

play

YES

public

1655511091937

Arwyn Hughes

Answer will be resolved according to votes at the end of time limit.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2106598469878276, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657314168038

100

ArwynHughes

1657314158461

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1656462629460

1657314154081

0.9327153427820736

0.4999999999999994

r7iHGNxtN2WFOMYIQgGj

{"NO": 480.8764305516991, "YES": 20.795363142517132}

1

sonic-would-beat-mario-in-a-fight

385

Sonic would beat Mario in a fight

1656133140000

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

3.896591156722409

True

play

YES

public

1655511240366

Arwyn Hughes

Sonic is clearly quicker. I don't see how Mario could compete. Please vote Yes if you agree. Decided according to votes at expiry.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.1235694483009215, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657314089551

100

ArwynHughes

1656253113062

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

5

0

1

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665609703352}]

["gaming"]

0.5

1655976647557

1656253111034

0.9585478725256127

0.49999999999999845

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{"NO": 433.1435054674345, "YES": 23.087036683623754}

1

will-10-participants-attend-shelter

646.2167015030718

Will >=10 participants attend SHELTER Weekend?

1660017540000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

3.762683954845266

True

play

YES

public

1655511505149

Joel Becker

See information about SHELTER Weekend here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZkkeLBwRGgxmsiqrh/apply-to-join-shelter-weekend-this-august This market resolves yes if >=10 selected participants (excluding me, Owen, Tereza, Sebastian, and any event staff) attend at least some part of the event in-person.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.093977784625896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660264832575

100

JoelBecker

1659365578813

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi36bUzW_j-HKZOckPZRBt4oauadZ3wSKi4-A9C=s96-c

9

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529456746}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1659365578731

1657465401075

0.9493961176409366

bKuszJOLqNraF5r66V62

poll-under-what-conditions-is-it-ok

314.8215707009587

Poll: Under what conditions is it ok (morally/philosophically) to bet on my own markets with an expectation/hope of profit?

1655604638429

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.730275161945464

True

play

MKT

public

1655512070510

1

Resolves to answers which seem right, conscience wise. Would value discussion in the comments. Jun 17, 8:01pm: (I’m not ready to commit my conscience to the whims of the market, although I will use its advice. So by ‘resolves to answers which seem right, conscience wise’, I’m not necessarily saying that I’ll resolve t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.047137171961653, "platformFee": 2.7617842929904133, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655604638429

600

1

1655604376518

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "721650bdeb8d", "prob": 0.05972752767618735, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1039168757621927, "userId": "qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.378630765370307, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bKuszJOLqNraF5r66V62", "createdTime": 1655512070622, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1655604376364

1655602843212

{"393acdd0d050": 3.6446223447415553, "591c7dee7e5a": 7.289244689483111, "9c843bc394ac": 21.68989089651768, "a24b09501396": 7.289244689483111, "a344ddcc4712": 3.6446223447415553, "df055a5c2122": 56.44237503503299}

True

0.8389610391713156

a6vL2JXnqikdtIWNvlsU

{"NO": 1174.7580964963456, "YES": 935.9712142260012}

0.867352559032488

will-air-quality-in-los-angeles-imp

1094.3881408266645

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

2128878000000

WBF5zNwnYONnu24bjNRXRp1iCoM2

cpmm-1

0

9.849248788671659

False

basic

public

1655512501367

Michael Osofsky

Air quality in Los Angeles is in the yellow range on the Air Quality Index (AQI) according to PurpleAir.com as of June 2022 (reference 1). From reference 1, it seems to have the lowest air quality in California. In 2020, Gavin Newsom "issued an executive order requiring sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-15, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-15, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-15}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.004216099262043, "platformFee": 0.09913371361990278, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MichaelOsofsky

1714327965734

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e5-1e6cf3789b2a

18

0

17

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530052}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1714327962336

cDA22KlwJSsodfUxBWVA

how-much-will-gas-cost-on-the-week

1190.0627298924942

How much will gas cost on the week of July 4th?

1657511940000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.671351273381886

True

play

94ded36307dc

public

1655512524185

GeorgeVii

What will the weekly retail gas prices be for the week on July 4th, in $0.05 intervals? https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 27.754690068536704, "platformFee": 6.938672517134176, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657564804890

1359.9999999999998

GeorgeVii

1657564772550

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "120a8a737d69", "prob": 0.013398171552451732, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08558453485294543, "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.302192671752857, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cDA22KlwJSsodfUxBWVA", "createdTime": 1655512524413, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572126}]

["economics-default"]

1657511231406

1657564768518

{"94ded36307dc": 100}

True

0.35421843499967903

cgXCCqFVl5gQ2IRRL4Ky

{"NO": 973.8281121862933, "YES": 1015.2247371178266}

0.3447543628808299

will-the-who-declare-another-pandem

722.0734257252735

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?

1893412800000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.616427988925368

False

basic

public

1655528076236

N.C. Young

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.4170422270092602, "platformFee": 0.6775075556685929, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1719710709893

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

2

30

1

https://firebasestorage.…84f-c76fee6283d2

6

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419464}, {"name": "Pandemic", "slug": "pandemic", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5OlW5cUQPgx5A9W1OPnp", "createdTime": 1683150002736}]

["world-default", "pandemic"]

0.10084788400609081

0.5

1719710706780

1684619398199

0.33907441235541946

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{"NO": 72.12642969002115, "YES": 859.6238676543392}

0.041269113535800164

will-iter-create-first-plasma-befor

969.2082892095165

Will ITER create first plasma before the end of 2025?

1767254340000

WQYDzL1AUNh1LrgklL3tubay3kk1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655529353958

Alex Wilson

The fusion research project ITER claims Dec 2025 as an important milestone for first plasma: https://www.iter.org/proj/inafewlines This market will resolve as YES if ITER announces they have created plasma before the end of 2025.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.09602927574262714}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6791091252704193, "platformFee": 0.22089800241513313, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

AlexWilson

1719497911877

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywBTf-CVQlTy7PmDXMwJ3lYJEgWoLugmbOEglE4g=s96-c

10

0

6

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535497}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1719187617520

1719497910464

0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 23.681183372047062, "YES": 422.2761946856042}

0

will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-efbbb2f227bd

1510.261754117209

Will Manifold Markets offer a public API that allows tipping comments by August 1st, 2022?

1659419940000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

3.7311266747578355

True

play

NO

public

1655533904748

Scott Lawrence

As usual, the API must be publicly documented in the official documentation (not just a git draft or anything like that) by the market close date for it to count.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 10.698537342489855, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659426336837

100

ScottLawrence

1659375152700

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

12

0

1

0.5

1659375152571

1659125724173

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0.5000000000000014

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{"NO": 625.6347647316483, "YES": 15.98376650998496}

1

market-resolves-yes

588

Market resolves YES

1655697540000

KD8KIJAJ8Za1xqkwgDSENuxdWto2

cpmm-1

0

4.260313349627636

True

play

YES

public

1655535012774

Manifold Markets User

This market resolves YES unconditionally.

BINARY

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ManifoldMarketsUser

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0

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{"NO": 940.5022217028751, "YES": 10.632617094613522}

1

will-sheoldred-appear-in-dominaria

845

Will Sheoldred appear in Dominaria United?

1660888343039

qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1

cpmm-1

0

4.886666730263339

True

play

YES

public

1655537466925

Unconditional Probability

Will The character Sheoldred be depicted in a card from the Dominaria United Set?

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 4.497778297124871, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1660888343039

100

UnconditionalProbability

1660888327698

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c

4

0

0.5

1660888327607

1658869125423

0.9779396620963208

ZitCaKG82INr7ABgiPsk

who-will-be-the-nba-mvp-2023-regula

80147.29206417604

Who will be the NBA MVP 2023 (regular season)?

1683144707710

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.61668115376104

True

basic

c9b61b91e479

public

1655538136678

howtodowtle

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1683144707710

3740.000000000003

howtodowtle

1710222967791

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

0

68

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "da41522d8b90", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005073496785072913, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.5316748957513835, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZitCaKG82INr7ABgiPsk", "createdTime": 1655538136773, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...

50

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb"}]

["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"]

1683144695505

1683144793348

{"c9b61b91e479": 100}

True

0.7956779060876618

6EkPQqeyQyVzdQdmwiBs

{"NO": 2270.4173512100524, "YES": 152.52720205743697}

1

will-markus-soder-be-reelected-as-b

2279.398663974951

Will Markus Söder be re-elected as Bavarian Ministerpräsident (prime Mister after the election in 2023?

1695506340000

5Fj2i5o9uWRbLCaPX1CPFD3MDR92

cpmm-1

0

2.521725696368323

True

play

YES

public

1655555747870

Jacob

This question resolves YES if the Bavarian Landtag votes for Markus Söder as Ministerpräsident after the election in 2023.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4348706298346743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1699827961228

300

Jacob

1699717109801

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzClBG1mcrxPwhyERroJhY3pfJK2SFb3INqi7q=s96-c

15

0

11

7

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470523}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1695479419362

1699717108604

0.98

sHeI58GpERSNpF4kCpqu

during-the-break-up-of-gondwana-if

0

During the break up of Gondwana, if the Indian subcontinent had taken a more easterly course and collided with the Malay archipelago instead, then what would the resulting geography be like?

1656629940000

8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655556113125

GooGhoul

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gondwana#Opening_of_eastern_Indian_Ocean During the breakup of Gondwana, the Indian subcontinent broke off and drifted into central Asia creating the Tibetan plateau and the Himalayas If it had taken a different course and collided with the Malay archipelago, then how would Central Asia's ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656749550066

220

GooGhoul

1655564854983

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "47cb8bfc9d12", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sHeI58GpERSNpF4kCpqu", "createdTime": 1655556113201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535095}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243841}]

["science-default", "india"]

1655556113125

1655564850908

False

True

0.24544941621473113

icSiW1P9lLXK7hScrZvr

{"NO": 924.4732723685103, "YES": 1131.2948245160678}

0.20999999999999971

what-proportion-of-john-von-neumann

65638.5470770363

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

4102549140000

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

4.878818632061897e-16

8.640440614591075

False

basic

public

1655560714053

Peter Berggren

Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identify as LGBTQ+. This survey will be...

BINARY

{"day": -0.031846130762674896, "week": -0.031846130762674896, "month": -0.031846130762674896}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.143054197031073, "platformFee": 2.192637213776809, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

PeterBerggren

1714314627935

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

2

46

0

34

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529452667}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1663522600387}, {"name": "Cursed", "slug": "cursed", "userId": "eSqS...

["technology-default", "lgbtqia", "cursed"]

0.1472748460554337

0.5

1714314624502

1712177189845

0.5000000000000016

uQhZkr1xA855HspBQ1Ad

{"NO": 724.5433441258398, "YES": 13.801796788382525}

1

will-the-wa8-district-be-won-by-a-d

734.1476502009068

Will the WA-8 district be won by a Democrat in the 2022 midterms?

1668326431365

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

4.477895298811969

True

play

YES

public

1655561486400

Bolton Bailey

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.194335682728066, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668326431365

100

BoltonBailey

1668326337776

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

6

0

6

[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1660070446431}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509905}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": ...

["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1668326246096

1668326335634

0.7528751675529664

0.7359579493135647

DVboUMNBgz9zWqVpCpLt

{"NO": 10834.877581213848, "YES": 20.144720761652934}

1

will-there-be-50-deaths-in-the-curr

11205.687509960919

Will there be >50 deaths in the current monkeypox outbreak?(in 2022)

1672577972656

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

4.743802199399196

True

play

YES

public

1655567727461

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if threshold is crossed. Resolves no if the outbreak seems to be over, or after 2022. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science #Monkeypox #Covid Close date updated to 2022-1...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.449372400675355, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672577972656

140

TimP

1672577752416

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

26

0

1

23

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414455}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525150}, {"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658...

["monkeypox", "science-default", "world-default", "medicine"]

0.5

1672577752229

1672577696184

0.98

0.5000000000000568

JEnfFnPxjAn6xUlOuKwL

{"NO": 1709.0728459207655, "YES": 5.851125669605674}

1

will-any-user-place-a-m10000-bet-on

22432.013166069817

Will any user place a M$10,000 bet on this market?

1656205933474

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

5.407031716945106

True

play

YES

public

1655568248140

Ben

Resolves YES if a user makes an exactly M$10,000 bet on this market, in either direction. (e.g. Multiple bets adding up to M$10,000 would not count) Jun 20, 8:12pm: Resolution note: I’ll resolve this market immediately (well, as soon as I become aware) after a M$10,000 bet is made

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 25.582686997700186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656205933474

100

bcongdon

1656202541685

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

19

0

0.5

1656202541557

1656201162765

0.996588113661868

0.5000000000000001

KBBQNzNbj17EvaznzJYh

{"NO": 14.351283071811281, "YES": 696.8018085882472}

0

near-protocol-will-touch-31-dollars

600

NEAR protocol will touch $3.1 dollars or above before midnight UTC tonight.

1655955741758

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0

4.419081490157634

True

play

NO

public

1655568346975

Arwyn Hughes

I dont own near so apparently this bet is ok... Expired to true if it was true before close of bet.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.198191411752765, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655955741758

100

ArwynHughes

1655955757809

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7edmV2zDmqguBWv9qudB3FJfg2yMkYryL4LmKVQ=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1655627130764

1655955754885

0.02018030047273057

0.21333328014222266

Isfk71ttBgmRryI3d8Zq

{"NO": 93.78321739365963, "YES": 483.2218483291824}

0

will-i-be-formally-hired-for-manifo

1815.7220160983602

Will I be formally hired for Manifold in 2022?

1671398037457

MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2

cpmm-1

0

3.6410732596610265

True

play

NO

public

1655568816845

Gurkenglas

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.567412039628444, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671398037457

186.0667391410152

Gurkenglas

1669799909611

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45

13

0

13

0.5

1669799909454

1655757184845

0.05

0.5000000000000001

rnHpyNPyhLqhqIaCu8Og

{"NO": 74.81614692562712, "YES": 133.660986443752}

1

will-the-next-mr-beast-video-be-lon

121

Will the next Mr. Beast Video be longer than 13 minutes?

1655758740000

TyIKLVhbsFZdE83oB6nvJjJqjEm2

cpmm-1

0

2.814531499362497

True

play

YES

public

1655569925577

Danny Kim

It will be according to the length of the video released after "I Built Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory!" Here is the link for Mr Beast's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MrBeast6000/featured

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.633122921777651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656832722564

100

DannyKim

1656830336434

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwF6WBu3EFkk8aLyOnuxCRnOkUjbRCTwWmoMZRSVg=s96-c

7

0

1

0.5

1655758070930

1656830331233

0.35886979889093223

0.49999999999999994

SMr5vbQl5hajDpwZd4U1

{"NO": 90.62729454587199, "YES": 110.34203382225421}

0.4509508753488251

should-i-buy-a-nintendo-switch

49.50638171458848

Should I buy a Nintendo Switch?

1657428429006

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.777429501066195

True

play

MKT

public

1655570187885

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Suggestions of what games to get are also welcome

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.888666294269337, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657428429006

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1655905672710

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

3

0

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459573}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492227}]

["nintendo", "olivia"]

0.5

1655905671502

1655905663597

0.4509508753488251

XC9qAzuhO84n4CmfaxGj

who-will-win-the-chess-candidates-t

5488.382745751223

Who will win the chess Candidates Tournament 2022?

1656907140000

skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.627067755519768

True

basic

fd9cd7737615

public

1655572246643

Eli Lifland

Winner of the candidates tournament, as indicated at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022 Jun 18, 1:10pm: See also https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11087/chess-2022-candidates-tournament-winner/

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 14.086889733604782, "platformFee": 3.5217224334011954, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656946456072

1039.9999999999998

EliLifland

1656946471784

0

https://firebasestorage.…837-6a566c7be4f3

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "945289bb8e6b", "prob": 0.000577953978931056, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0011736443360143506, "userId": "skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.0295145744474996, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XC9qAzuhO84n4CmfaxGj", "createdTime": 1655572246724, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403978}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969415}]

["sports-default", "chess"]

1656894446132

1656946470376

{"fd9cd7737615": 100}

True

5mLLidlt8dNQ4pqn3v9T

which-podcasts-will-i-like

65.33919425243712

Which podcast(s) will I like?

1658174531968

nsOLL5tvd6Wn5UBR5Arb0g85Tep2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.891346326281011

True

play

MKT

public

1655573861539

Amnonian

I will listen to at least 20 minutes to all podcasts listed, and resolve equally between all the ones I've liked enough to add to my listening list. Unless otherwise stated in the suggestion, I will listen to the earliest episodes I can find in my app. If by chance anyone has Hebrew podcasts, those are also a possibili...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.826432229902516, "platformFee": 1.206608057475629, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658174531968

380

Amnonian

1658175112514

0

https://firebasestorage.…496-414e69eb18db

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8ea8f8ae7069", "prob": 0.4073546591210391, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.402598509543278, "userId": "nsOLL5tvd6Wn5UBR5Arb0g85Tep2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.23162459016017, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5mLLidlt8dNQ4pqn3v9T", "createdTime": 1655573861622, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

[{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659014622603}]

["recommendations"]

1658116392682

1658175104911

{"17bc2133f03f": 33.333333333333336, "2e9c617b33eb": 33.333333333333336, "31b7cd6695ef": 33.333333333333336}

True

0.5593781907577138

RAIzRW8BL6Mbkv6oXYCo

{"NO": 1166.0342234035113, "YES": 128.72206476267573}

1

will-scott-aaronson-be-at-least-as

1261.525025057178

Will Scott Aaronson be at least as optimistic about AI alignment next year?

1687751940000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.4517317114298798

True

play

YES

public

1655574156322

Jack

Scott Aaronson just announced that he's working at OpenAI for the next year: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6484. In this post he also says "just as Eliezer became more and more pessimistic about the prospects for getting anywhere on AI alignment, I’ve become more and more optimistic". Resolves YES if based on Scott Aa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.10048045009582, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688392013992

360

jack

1688392012788

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

0

35

0

2

29

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448430}]

["technology-default"]

0.10457218606507339

0.5

1687733854500

1688392008118

0.92

0.500000000000001

W4TFRw6e9NyNVKzeStsF

{"NO": 956.0743630980862, "YES": 10.459437451701774}

1

what-is-truth

857

What is truth?

1655575194974

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.913243762185695

True

play

YES

public

1655575152221

Matt P

Will resolve proportionally to the answer or answers I like best. I'll resolve similarly to my previous open ended question market (linked below), but to raise the stakes a tad I will only choose up to 5 answers on this one. https://manifold.markets/MattP/what-is-love

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9256369019138156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655575194974

100

MattP

1655575192248

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

1

0

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529544952}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1655575191048

1655575184354

0.5

bQwgYAJqJwuLEp4EMLmN

what-is-truth-41507d8973f8

532.7714771764173

What is truth?

1656255600000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.699526242638787

True

play

MKT

public

1655575243970

Matt P

Will resolve proportionally to the answer or answers I like best. I'll resolve similarly to my previous open ended question market (linked below), but to raise the stakes a tad I will only choose up to 5 answers on this one. https://manifold.markets/MattP/what-is-love

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 14.937319878945171, "platformFee": 3.734329969736293, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656940287123

700

MattP

1656943666709

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8e6f1955a874", "prob": 0.031080205234990874, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.36182224112736133, "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.279743134380933, "textFts": "", "contractId": "bQwgYAJqJwuLEp4EMLmN", "createdTime": 1655575244227, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545617}, {"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1658529555159}]

["philosophy", "culture-default"]

1656087261240

1656943660532

{"0092ab191ad6": 29.41176470588235, "3a93ec3ad560": 11.764705882352942, "d8ecd0a3ec89": 11.764705882352942, "e5a41247858a": 29.41176470588235, "fd3ee936ef2a": 17.647058823529413}

True