CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

FYYjibR1lYHefQQFU6fc

which-country-will-win-group-a-of-t-506d1ab4e4ec

651.5520985121003

Which country will win Group A of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669740300000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.681462418037548

True

play

62b3fbc9f1cd

public

1655575335217

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_A Betting concludes at the end of last match of the group stage (November 29). This market will be resolved according to tie-breaking criteria for group play (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_stage)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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egroj

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ANYONE

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12

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399540}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583244}]

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]

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{"62b3fbc9f1cd": 100}

True

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kmtvR8Smu6ZXFyfGV6e4

{"NO": 125.8023519456157, "YES": 79.48976982817453}

0.7

will-i-understand-what-the-metrics

436.5667125499229

Will I understand what the metrics on my portfolio page mean?

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7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.7988758188907688

True

play

MKT

public

1655576515925

Charlie

I can guess that 'Investment value' means how much M$ I have currently invested in markets (and could hypothetically sell minus fees). Don't think I have a perfect understanding of what 'Profit' is referring to other than that it definitely includes unrealized gains. Definitely don't know what the percentages refer...

BINARY

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Charlie

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{"NO": 189.13820038139602, "YES": 52.87139234609961}

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will-michael-guest-win-his-primary

110

Will Michael Guest win his primary?

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KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.972322797714968

True

play

YES

public

1655576735683

Enopoletus Harding

?

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EnopoletusHarding

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https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495629}]

["politics-default"]

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{"NO": 906.2404477579365, "YES": 1286.0458789063046}

0.15622164792281146

will-the-set-of-us-states-change-th

728.2558792125513

Will the set of U.S. states change this decade?

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cpmm-1

0.06896968578802587

9.688821280642818

False

basic

public

1655577690057

Scott Lawrence

This question resolves to YES if any states are added or removed in any year through 2029. A change in boundaries is not sufficient. It resolves to YES even if the number of states is constant (e.g. if California splits in two while the Dakotas are merged).

BINARY

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ScottLawrence

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529493419}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867004}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

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0.5

1700854779294

1656588453115

False

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how-many-startup-employees-will-be

2392.4510473955474

How many startup employees will be laid off in June?

1657152289552

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6417029958247085

True

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c4ae73806e81

public

1655578921108

Adrian

How many startup employees will Layoffs.fyi report were laid off in June? Currently at 8,901, May was 16,985 and April was 3,765 I will only select answers created by me as valid, and will wait one week after the month ends to resolve, to allow for reporting lag. https://layoffs.fyi/ Previous version of the question ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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ahalekelly

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565008}]

["economics-default"]

1656958572884

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True

0.4000629086432635

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{"NO": 120.78554420987292, "YES": 224.301652117888}

0.2642143388770171

will-the-us-government-repeal-the-u

128.84556588626512

Will the US Government repeal the US Constitution before 2100?

4117640340000

iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655580859841

JuJumper

BINARY

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JuJumper

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0

https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509544}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867725}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1680847967381

1655605344490

False

0.6769082915604794

h6qhns23VzTEPM77wl6Q

{"NO": 2059.770904972691, "YES": 23.45117920841409}

1

will-the-creator-earnings-for-this

18005.75948885753

Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$200?

1656226740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

5.210758206761599

True

play

YES

public

1655588072995

SneakySly

As viewed in the market info screen for this market (Click the ... icon next to the amount bet). If that number exceeds M$200 this market will resolve YES, otherwise will resolve NO at close if the threshold has not been met.

BINARY

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302.38840788869305

SneakySly

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https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

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{"NO": 85.46536707079768, "YES": 172.75252316519476}

0

will-i-still-use-kakoune-in-6-month

99.1878735632317

Will I still use Kakoune in 6 months?

1671380286612

9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2

cpmm-1

0

1.8119317874119472

True

play

NO

public

1655590697368

extent_of_foxes

Kakoune (https://kakoune.org/) is a text editor similar to vim. Will it be in my top three methods for writing text in 6 months? (My top two are Google Docs and a proprietary IDE, and those are unlikely to change.) Up to now, the editor in this position has been emacs, which I don't have any particular attachment to a...

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 2.9197120827977625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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extent_of_foxes

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{"NO": 22.62702303435294, "YES": 742.7568622883132}

0

will-this-market-be-traded-by-50-us

2711.8567543838367

Will this market be traded by 50+ users?

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cpmm-1

0

4.198477855637715

True

play

NO

public

1655591889455

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if under market info the number next to Traders is >= 50 at market close. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm Jun 20, 9:39pm: A $50 tip will be paid the top trader of this market measured in total profit at close. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm

BINARY

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224.9064965461767

BTE

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[]

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{"NO": 59.55618161397611, "YES": 167.90868267574243}

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czy-maciek-bedzie-o-1300-na-spajku

70

Czy Maciek bedzie o 13:00 na spajku?

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MldQ8HkEojeexfT7Nuow4UyKStk2

cpmm-1

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2.9054038204301174

True

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NO

public

1655593360404

Piotr Pawlak

BINARY

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PiotrPawlak

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwk402WzQ_uyvYNw2gqmEWlHxKbsluId3REzf5H=s96-c

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1655619837683

1655619811238

0.2618258507745633

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what-will-be-the-first-cryptocurren

732.7691564609605

What will be the first cryptocurrency to surpass Bitcoin's market cap?

1749959940000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

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basic

public

1655594678136

Duncn

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1000

Duncn

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https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

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ANYONE

[{"id": "c7bdee1af574", "prob": 0.020221072156957034, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.3704679843932825, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 163.31050512284511, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PsvOBxoToEnoKSeWgFHE", "createdTime": 1655594678215, "probChanges": {"day": -0.97977892...

13

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658529538615}]

["crypto-speculation"]

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True

0.49999999999999245

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{"NO": 3399.71477960242, "YES": 2.9414232217354765}

1

h

3300

h

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cpmm-1

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5.351284692487475

True

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YES

public

1655599405914

Electricitypipe

BINARY

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100

Electricitypipe

1655599427396

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1655599423519

0.5

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what-are-the-most-efficient-depress

207.5792853283558

What are the most efficient depression interventions per unit of effort?

1672520340000

Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.777858186173485

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655602548654

Jeremy Moonders

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680899954209

580

JeremyMoonders

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ANYONE

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20

12

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526921}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670343091}]

["science-default", "please-resolve"]

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True

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{"NO": 920.9427957411294, "YES": 1236.8330092648305}

0.14723054435761004

will-an-ai-system-write-a-high-qual

3164.9935235689913

Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?

1767254340000

6UIxfArZ8GMbyOl6xZKU63o8sb42

cpmm-1

0.35747552367905006

9.765361292756172

False

basic

public

1655604392539

Voyager

Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like

BINARY

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voyagerB

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2.2

https://firebasestorage.…892-45c4eadc1302

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[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}]

["culture-default", "ai", "books"]

0.17038105204491596

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1715716775734

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{"NO": 47.99163728069869, "YES": 1457.0411407816566}

0

will-there-be-a-cfar-alumni-reunion

1526.9476384793525

Will there be a CFAR Alumni Reunion in Bay Area in 2022?

1672549045594

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

4.189808773595569

True

play

NO

public

1655605053783

Rai

Has to be one which is organized and announced and backed by CFAR, as they usually are, not just couple people getting together and calling their thing the unofficial CFAR Alumni Reunion.

BINARY

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agentydragon

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

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8

[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1669235076849}, {"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 16692...

["sf-bay-rationalists", "san-francisco"]

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{"NO": 963.8957725663047, "YES": 61.247629000879726}

1

blockfi-will-undergo-a-liquidity-cr

2297.356159085075

BlockFi will undergo a liquidity crisis by the end of 2022.

1672549140000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

3.4940692683103367

True

play

YES

public

1655605252025

GeorgeVii

https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416

BINARY

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GeorgeVii

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1672415304183

1673112453947

0.97

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{"NO": 718.6294789357985, "YES": 30.699589940011606}

1

eth-trades-greater-than-005-btc-at

1065.031525464443

ETH trades greater than 0.05 BTC at the end of the year?

1672549140000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

3.7912905174090272

True

play

YES

public

1655606076511

GeorgeVii

In Scott Alexander's predictions for 2022 he gives a 90% probability to this outcome. (On 31st Jan when the list of predictions was published ETH sat at roughly ~0.069BTC) https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest As of market creation ETH trades at ~0.052BTC

BINARY

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1673112053750

120

GeorgeVii

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11

0

2

10

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529442434}]

["crypto-prices"]

0.5

1672236326464

1655674387087

0.97

x11x5REMq1mKewbmZK69

repost-under-what-conditions-is-it

275

Repost: Under what conditions is it ok (morally/philosophically) to bet on my own markets with an expectation/hope of profit?

1656219540000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.740756026360496

True

play

MKT

public

1655606092019

1

(See my offer on the previous market to refund my mess-up for anyone who made a bet there) Reposting without “poll” in the title this time. I’ll resolve to answers depending on how compelling I find them. I will not be betting, although I may add answers and immediately sell my shares so that they’re “on the board”. ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.9999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1656242512580

479.99999999999994

1

1656904118618

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "89dffe5fb5f3", "prob": 0.07187574121858131, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.1335320247536784, "userId": "qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.55008568244178, "textFts": "", "contractId": "x11x5REMq1mKewbmZK69", "createdTime": 1655606092117, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

1655997965967

1656904116471

{"2b5fce02e86b": 31.372549019607842, "3b9702f54eb5": 35.294117647058826, "7246ad6b41d1": 31.372549019607842, "c69206e9b546": 1.9607843137254901}

True

0.5

v0SU7e3oULH3CiuMSzWw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

bitcoin-q2q3-low

0

Bitcoin Q2/Q3 low

1655607111587

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655607090778

Gigacasting

Lowest Coingecko price, to nearest $1k

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655607111587

100

Gigacasting

1655607090778

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

0

0.5

0.5000000000000105

rkyKHQAMU7dN321ZKwUF

{"NO": 7.607270238507949, "YES": 1314.5319788138904}

0

will-austin-and-david-go-clubbing-i

3022.260681721367

Will Austin and David go clubbing in Mexico City?

1656737940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

5.439940878183448

True

play

NO

public

1655608167321

Austin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.388112083125293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656742034555

100

Austin

1656629493700

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

16

0

1

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435808}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656629493583

1656623879774

0.005753758723947223

lVBkIfoUWnTXVmLewsaD

in-what-year-will-an-ai-be-named-ti

2483.677351373495

In what year will an AI be named Time Person of the Year?

1925009940000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1655611122354

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES when an AI is chosen as person of the year.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2592211834911224, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2040

BTE

1718135092914

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

1

37

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0266298d3603", "prob": 0.01500650963189151, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.06566430887136371, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.310057326745711, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lVBkIfoUWnTXVmLewsaD", "createdTime": 1655611122594, "probChanges": {"day": -0.991133443...

https://firebasestorage.…c11-1088e901972f

18

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588443}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547089}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2"...

["ai", "culture-default", "time-person-of-the-year", "ai-person-of-the-year"]

1718135089617

1701730131667

True

prob-desc

True

0.49669456260636413

2kFecHR0sLAVsqNryu1g

{"NO": 14.962989621122212, "YES": 755.5112844980562}

0

will-this-resolve-on-an-even-day

885.1026463800567

Will this resolve on an even day?

1655816930223

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

4.3521762709073

True

play

NO

public

1655614447041

Bionic

Every day starting with June 21st, I will look at the new YES/NO on this public number generator website (https://avkg.com/en/daily-random/). If it is YES, I will resolve to NO if it is an odd day of the month, and to YES if it is an even day of the month. If it is NO, I will not resolve it on that day and move on to t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.71424463214482, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655816930223

105

BionicD0LPH1N

1655817050094

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

4

0

0.5

1655798054016

1655817045752

0.01917029573264434

0.499999999999998

96yoApa8lT5Y6evlZC17

{"NO": 1397.0616022283402, "YES": 7.1578805000795}

1

will-petra-juggle-the-soccer-ball-l

1417.7365243432127

Will Petra juggle the soccer ball longer than Mik?

1655618792151

r3OV4ND2h7P2yLShCku2RPuopPM2

cpmm-1

0

5.431570984040608

True

play

YES

public

1655618353024

Sam Marks

Based on number of jugs in an average of two attempts.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.201873428447035, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655618792151

100

SamMarks

1655618772993

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiTmXGZV33P3Lu2SSrDXxIb3iRTgiMPe4EQ9Aw6=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1655618771820

1655618730789

0.7443427903363607

0.5000000000000001

e9M8XiSGGeqvUBe1KF9Q

{"NO": 428.94738504688456, "YES": 23.312882531984627}

1

will-sam-get-more-soccer-football-j

591.2665383650798

Will Sam get more soccer (football ⚽) juggles than George?

1655619675812

WsPfPEEjmKNLsS4wMVbkFSDDCnW2

cpmm-1

0

3.7505469593784744

True

play

YES

public

1655619048685

Karagounis Z

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.786076588035671, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655619675812

100

KaragounisZ

1655619634038

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiWEqdpvSQmgbhAkCnoKAdX4IX6w8dK0Ar9ApZ2Cw=s96-c

3

0

0.5

1655619633893

0.4322846926929303

0.5000000000000001

cCUEizJ9NKS3KRbtfYVu

{"NO": 95.25549864301291, "YES": 104.98081625163492}

0

will-my-flight-be-delayed

15

Will my flight be delayed

1655657596668

jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3

cpmm-1

0

2.7737699478208686

True

play

NO

public

1655641954101

Spindle

I'm flying out to a tranche convention. Knowing nothing about my origin or destination, will my flight be delayed more than 10 min???

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7112833746554864, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655657596668

100

Spindle

1655644888136

0

https://firebasestorage.…669-a627f99c07a6

2

0

0.5

1655644886739

0.4757154000418485

0.24405732898817722

NIWSQROI4AFOMepWzcmy

{"NO": 29.281202818499644, "YES": 1097.4465546714755}

0

planecrash-will-belmarniss-have-any

78469.81467798354

[planecrash] Will Belmarniss have any tags?

1669776017500

9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2

cpmm-1

0

5.31965058729784

True

play

NO

public

1655648675454

extent_of_foxes

Belmarniss is a character by Alicorn, who has already participated in writing planecrash. https://www.glowfic.com/characters/8403 I interpret the question precisely: references to her existence by a different character don't count, and if for some reason a tag with her character is used but doesn't actually feature he...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.4533187993083, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669776017500

120

extent_of_foxes

1669766589251

0

https://firebasestorage.…318-f4ea213ccb90

15

0

10

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392054}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543582}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1667457074660

1669766582554

0.008540504054057263

0.5000000000000001

XxCiPWaMYP7VKTwx1wdE

{"NO": 42.972271560222694, "YES": 232.7082008216784}

0

will-the-next-person-aella-has-sex

136

Will the next person Aella has sex with for free be Black?

1656302340000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

3.1191523326555237

True

play

NO

public

1655654733706

Enopoletus Harding

I'm defining "Black" pretty loosely; i.e., at 5% Sub-Saharan African ancestry or higher. Dominicans and Cape Coloureds, as well as many Puerto Ricans and Maghrebis count.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.291799178321622, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671318821751

100

EnopoletusHarding

1673082762640

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

6

0

1

9

[{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821903536}]

["sex-and-love"]

0.5

1656282050960

1673082761423

0.16

c4ryW8GYD3tEN8S6Qgiz

who-will-win-the-2022-tour-de-franc

1390.976081673957

Who will win the 2022 Tour de France?

1658678340000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.654791765148473

True

play

5be29f6ef13d

public

1655654883238

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France Which rider will win the general classification at the end of the Tour de France?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.860503666037523, "platformFee": 2.715125916509381, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658684856713

700

egroj

1658590971543

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "09d058c54a50", "prob": 0.006556155760585988, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.05173841328049897, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.839839390825026, "textFts": "", "contractId": "c4ryW8GYD3tEN8S6Qgiz", "createdTime": 1655654883321, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405477}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1658529410600}]

["road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default"]

1658590970245

1658170244127

{"5be29f6ef13d": 100}

True

0.901771294778864

5JpdHYB9raW3Je6bsaj7

{"NO": 1170.153855753615, "YES": 934.1209553569553}

0.9200000000000006

will-the-us-capital-be-washington-d

794.4567875060161

Will the U.S. capital be Washington, D.C. at the end of the decade?

1893567540000

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

10.236130617715009

False

basic

public

1655660065670

Scott Lawrence

This question is meant to be sensitive to any change in the location of the core of the U.S. federal government. Therefore, it will resolve NO if any of the following are the case on Jan 1, 2030: * The capital city, as defined colloquially, is some city other than Washington, D.C. * The Supreme Court hears at least o...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4483875183293806, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ScottLawrence

1705261442859

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

14

0

10

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469915}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181864871}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1705261442859

False

Cl9GxeK8YQmbor5NxNaf

what-month-will-cgp-grey-release-th

582.6198428037585

What month will CGP Grey release the next video on his YouTube channel?

1659896924103

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.692693178860286

True

play

16376c4c85bf

public

1655661552129

Duncn

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.217443348795698, "platformFee": 1.8043608371989246, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659896924103

760

Duncn

1659896576305

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "159af0271a6a", "prob": 0.026066662211140693, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3838009360458485, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.34002265659713, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Cl9GxeK8YQmbor5NxNaf", "createdTime": 1655661552212, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529542125}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104597016}]

["culture-default", "internet"]

1659896575026

1659895133561

{"16376c4c85bf": 100}

True

0.5000000000000018

S4mr8iZJI0mV1uQE2v3R

{"NO": 678.7908074751949, "YES": 14.732079294349383}

1

do-you-want-some-extra-mana

917

Do you want some extra mana?

1655686800000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.380003526045243

True

play

YES

public

1655667147662

Matt P

Bet your answer. Resolves to my answer.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3818766103025433, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655688021958

100

MattP

1655679668697

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

6

0

0.5

1655679668555

0.9787576162583879

0.4825082135525271

H3DXsGSt4tu9DSOPXpzg

{"NO": 128.72850872893008, "YES": 152.7029113822394}

0.41

what-will-joe-bidens-approval-ratin-a0195f62e1a4

73.09526606676354

What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on election day this year?

1667980740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

2.1221949061743692

True

play

MKT

public

1655672686682

SneakySly

This question resolves to PROB where the probability will be what Five Thirty Eight says Joe Biden's approval rating is at. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3098393024925046, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667980815654

140

SneakySly

1667398446020

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

7

0

8

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529430724}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479731}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqL...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.5

1667398445884

0.41

NfmpmqzCTkOYmW8oz77S

this-question-resolves-to-the-name

2059.8651312174097

This question resolves to the name of the user with the most-negative profit on the market

1656032340000

fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.641250289891314

True

play

7cae77d41be6

public

1655672804498

J. F. Jurchen

Determined based on what I see in the UI when I go to their bets page, e.g. https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/bets. Note that this is not the same as "actual cash extracted from the market", as it includes what Manifold thinks your current position is worth. If no user has a negative profit it will resolve to the spe...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.456228568851673, "platformFee": 3.364057142212918, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656033436636

540.0000000000001

jfjurchen

1656033104222

0

https://firebasestorage.…a23-ba922a4bb5d6

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5924c6e7ed53", "prob": 0.0028050071645467794, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.010909688331918325, "userId": "fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.878452331775814, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NfmpmqzCTkOYmW8oz77S", "createdTime": 1655672804577, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

1656032313067

1656033101047

{"7cae77d41be6": 100}

True

0.5

CSiPXgMUz2tnACFkkbF3

{"NO": 6.055345648413777, "YES": 1651.4333913571738}

0

is-1-0

1552

Is 1 = 0 ?

1655673729501

pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3

cpmm-1

0

5.410886625966115

True

play

NO

public

1655673702912

samanddeanus

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5666086428262723, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655673729501

100

samanddeanus

1655673709961

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c

1

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524928}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1655673709823

0.5

jskA9banzxBN6CVuEZIS

what-year-will-the-world-get-fusion

0

What year will the world get fusion?

1655734673513

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655674509358

Eli Gaultney

Basing this off of https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion power to the grid ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655734673513

220

EliGaultney

1655734763106

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ecb6db0fc292", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jskA9banzxBN6CVuEZIS", "createdTime": 1655674509441, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532601}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181929016}]

["science-default", "nuclear"]

1655674509358

1655734762364

False

True

0.5

o1s2VjyNPuDSe2yD0wxF

{"NO": 40.93261846774354, "YES": 244.30394082607702}

0.14350410960321214

will-anyone-write-that-corrigibilit

170

Will anyone write that corrigibility tag?

1655852340000

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cpmm-1

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3.158932674317515

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CANCEL

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1655674551825

Tetra

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AqsjZwxHNqH64C2b6/let-s-see-you-write-that-corrigibility-tag Close date updated to 2022-06-21 11:59 pm Jun 19, 10:35pm: Except EY, of course.

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Tetraspace

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will-california-abolish-daylight-sa

1443.6703793952308

Will California abolish daylight savings time in 2022?

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NO

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1655676597256

Kronopath

This question resolves to “Yes” if either California or the US as a whole decides, through passage of a law or some other means, to stop switching the clocks twice per year on or before Dec. 31, 2022. This resolves as Yes regardless of whether this means keeping daylight savings time year-round or standard time year-...

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Kronopath

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will-seattles-approval-voting-initi

18963.285541236903

Will Seattle's approval voting initiative pass?

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NO

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1655677538302

William Ehlhardt

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use approval voting during their primaries. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for...

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WilliamEhlhardt

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{"NO": 414.49573777637397, "YES": 24.12570043216013}

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will-the-usd-to-colombian-peso-cop

703.4436141429073

Will the USD to (Colombian Peso) COP exchange rate be > 4000 by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

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3.7082833287314214

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YES

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1655683584599

Connor McCormick

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Colombia just had an election which elected a leftist politician that some predicted would plunge the country into Venezuela-type economic distress. To measure that, we'll just watch the USD to COP exchange rate. I'll use this site: https://www.xe....

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ConnorMcCormick

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1668599995881

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will-this-market-close-at-69

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Will this market close at 69%?

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2.865297670089535

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1655685348351

Adrian

Previously: Will this market close at 4%? https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-this-market-close-at-4

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ahalekelly

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solve-this-mystery-a-book-collector

250

Solve this mystery: A book collector is found murdered in a labyrinth. Beside her is a word and a mirror. [stolen from @MagicRealismBot]

1655688657537

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1655688515881

1

Answers may interact with eachother or be standalone. I aim to reward creativity+magical realism-y-ness. tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/MagicRealismBot/status/1538566446489341953

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Solve this mystery: A book collector is found murdered in a labyrinth. Beside her is a word and a mirror. [stolen from @MagicRealismBot]

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1

Answers may interact with eachother or be standalone. I aim to reward creativity+magical realism-y-ness. tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/MagicRealismBot/status/1538566446489341953 Edit: Clarification, this is meant as a [short] writing prompt! I'm interested in rewarding creative responses. Close date updated to 20...

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ANYONE

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1657232030445

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0.4999999999999986

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{"NO": 1303.4176222364931, "YES": 7.672138100174834}

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will-build-back-better-pass-before

1795.9087225042215

Will Build Back Better pass before election day?

1662319419518

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

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5.430832358222094

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1655698978136

Ben

Mirror this Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/events/BBB/markets/BBB-22NOV08 -- though I may not wait until Kalshi resolves their market before resolving this one, if the outcome is obvious. Resolves YES if H.R. 5376 has become law by November 8, 2022

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bcongdon

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497105}]

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{"NO": 67.49288797430027, "YES": 148.16375917722993}

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will-this-market-close-at-50

532.2017441365358

Will this market close at 50%?

1655870340000

KD8KIJAJ8Za1xqkwgDSENuxdWto2

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2.8493787320914716

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1655701292160

Manifold Markets User

This market resolves YES if it closes at 50%, and NO otherwise.

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ManifoldMarketsUser

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will-average-market-volume-triple-o

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Will median market volume triple one month after limit orders become available?

1660193940000

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1655703373801

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If limit orders become available and remain generally available for a period of at least one month, then resolves as follows:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on \"median market ...

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jack

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660199295630}]

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{"NO": 74.86157270918763, "YES": 133.57988134776002}

0.35

bounty-how-likely-is-it-that-the-fb

35

Bounty: how likely is it that the FBI killed MLK Jr?

1655961656170

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

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2.814356797437468

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1655703443516

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve to market probability. Mostly I am just curious because of the line in Inside (2021)

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100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1655831956265

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i-will-try-beeminder

475

I will try Beeminder

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1655703610770

Jack2

I will try to resolve this based on how reasonable of an effort I make to try it #Personal #Commitments

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Jack2

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will-the-who-declare-another-public

923.1646707437746

Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

1658618112059

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cpmm-1

0

4.605641309773992

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YES

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1655708166715

N.C. Young

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NcyRocks

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422044}]

["world-default"]

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{"NO": 3422.7166351054057, "YES": 2.9216558266712127}

1

f

3323

f

1655725252796

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

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5.350900604282444

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YES

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1655725238025

Electricitypipe

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Electricitypipe

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{"NO": 114.51165487497481, "YES": 143.13766924159037}

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will-i-prefer-manifold-employment-t

410.99472548599584

Will I prefer Manifold employment to open-source contribution?

1672527540000

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1655727011586

Gurkenglas

Consider two ways to contributing to Manifold: YES: Get employed, get paid a 5-6 figure sum per year and equity. NO: Write PRs, get bounties. Office politics and taxes might argue against YES, having more of a voice in where Manifold goes might argue for YES. Bounties becoming larger would argue for NO, mana becoming ...

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Gurkenglas

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will-macron-dissolve-the-assemblee

10978.2423870859

Will Macron dissolve the Assemblée nationale by the end of 2023?

1704074896853

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1655733447367

Data Generating Process

This question resolves as YES if Macron announces a dissolution of the Assemblée nationale.

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datagenproc

1704074913720

2.4

https://firebasestorage.…ff9-7355abdcec6f

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["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1704074912878

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will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-fbcaed9b3aef

1813.3493124328397

Will total crypto market cap be above 915B on july 22th, according to coinmarketcap?

1658526144818

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cpmm-1

0

5.377673264154406

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YES

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1655738593375

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At some random time on july 22th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-07-18 11:59 pm", "type": "te...

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TimP

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1658526063030

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0.8224573873809766

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my-friends-gshe-and-mhe-raced-each

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My friends G(she) and M(he) raced each other at my wedding. I asked them both who won. What would they tell me?

1655824028480

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

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Cedar

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/988423315020455946/988473402375434240/run_DSC_3537.JPG See photo here

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1655824028480

440.00000000000006

Cedar

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ANYONE

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{"NO": 6.412277427502886, "YES": 1559.508320259028}

0

will-manifold-allow-users-to-set-an

1519.1718215811215

Will Manifold allow users to set an initial probability on paid markets?

1658443010812

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

5.2007363134959945

True

play

NO

public

1655743247116

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-08-22 6:59 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1658443010812

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TimP

1658442960951

0

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1

will-zoomers-discover-joanna-newsom

124.36005069150339

Will zoomers discover Joanna newsome before 2023?

1672552740000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

2.4943978024973297

True

play

YES

public

1655743785223

Manifold

Inspired by this tweet: https://twitter.com/jaycaspiankang/status/1538524611565932545 Exact resolution criteria tbd. Please suggest. Maybe if there is viral tiktoks using her song I will resolve to "YES" 😅

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Manifold

1672606981411

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

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5

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541763}]

["culture-default"]

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1671664580265

1672605982075

0.18

0.5000000000000002

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{"NO": 0.19718082598410547, "YES": 50714.87022130606}

0

will-my-dog-come-to-nassau-before-j

50686

Will my dog come to Nassau before July 1st?

1656647940000

jl04UxzD1qha0YVQR0BK7NbYIlu2

cpmm-1

0

5.297244558328376

True

play

NO

public

1655744549609

Joel Becker

Mushu has been with us in the US for 1.5 weeks. I am going back to Nassau (where I am based) tomorrow. I was originally planning on bringing him over on Jun 17, then Jun 20, both of which were delayed for administrative reasons. Will Mushu make it to Nassau before July 1st?

BINARY

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1656654540296

100

JoelBecker

1656647791918

0

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5

0

1

0.5

1656647791756

1656564166385

3.888012696909404e-06

5nnYvGlX9veQje2DXypA

how-many-tips-will-the-comment-on-t

6494.672032831381

How many tips will *the comment* on this post receive?

1656392340000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.626344412638519

True

play

776689b10bed

public

1655745855899

Manifold

*The comment* refers to only the tips on the first comment from this account. Only answers from this account will be resolved to. And yes, this market is just to steal Mana back from our users as an easy alternative to preventing the abuse of free markets :P

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 168.11363486836655, "platformFee": 42.02840871709164, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656523457498

979.9999999999998

Manifold

1656418184743

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

9

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1668818519183}]

["whale-watching"]

False

1656392339226

1656418176396

{"776689b10bed": 100}

True

0.4999999999999998

YMD1uv33PMS3WW2IMU9N

{"NO": 635.7084174144777, "YES": 15.730482287259179}

1

hehe

537

hehe

1655746749895

AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1

cpmm-1

0

4.283515110929182

True

play

YES

public

1655746731419

David

dont mind me

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.2915825855222511, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1655746749895

100

Salty

1699532473334

0

https://firebasestorage.…c05-2269bb61ea2b

1

0

0.5

1655746744338

1699532472722

0.5

CmGlEJSaXIPOqA7K74o0

what-beginner-project-should-my-sis

135

What beginner project should my sister do to learn computer science and make money?

1656388740000

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.807651632480852

True

play

MKT

public

1655748105751

Cedar

She's a the hello-world / fizzbuzz level with Python. She likes art and she likes people. She also enjoys math and CS but until I started showering her with encouragement she always thought she couldn't do it. Jun 21, 12:21pm: She's just finished her freshman year at a small Tennessee Christian college. She doesn't l...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.44, "platformFee": 1.36, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656644576415

460

Cedar

1656153637073

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

5

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ANYONE

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1

1656153635871

1655999804829

{"20e7f58d459f": 40.86110422007222, "82f6b50e18f9": 38.079880922847934, "d9da8ac96745": 21.05901485707986}

True

OwiwqHzqAhCXDg9rdf25

june-17-cycle-retro-what-went-well

265

June 17 Cycle Retro: What went well?

1655873940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.743336851946929

True

play

MKT

public

1655749069326

Austin

Take time to reflect on what things we accomplished (individually, and as a team) that we're especially proud of! This both gives us cause to celebrate, and also lets us double down on processes and ideas that are working~ Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.999999999999998, "platformFee": 0.9999999999999994, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655989263967

1060

Austin

1655923383657

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

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ANYONE

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1

1655810629010

1655923380945

{"209396b38c33": 13.726922296611885, "2b7d4b0e6666": 2.9028200446337995, "326fec3436c2": 5.579224994927977, "357c7c912f73": 9.785351998376955, "445aa71a8d0a": 5.451815784134713, "49612c2ce0a7": 3.308581862446743, "505bb4e8886d": 2.015824710894704, "5b72ea0613fc": 4.596469872185028, "5c1d26984ac3": 1.8056400892676, "6d7...

True

0.5

2uH7dktXm8EKpmHQZxcH

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

june-17-cycle-retro-what-could-have

0

June 17 Cycle Retro: What could have gone better?

1655749133046

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655749116799

Austin

Where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well. Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much other than like a subjective vote on how much you agree w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655749133046

100

Austin

1655749134079

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

0.5

1655749129799

0.5

jToVOwbuJy6Fb1iHOiaE

june-17-cycle-retro-what-could-have-e58b8dbf7390

332

June 17 Cycle Retro: What could have gone better?

1655873940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.729530868019004

True

play

MKT

public

1655749156314

Austin

Where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well. Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much other than like a subjective vote on how much you agree w...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.28, "platformFee": 1.32, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655960197373

1319.9999999999998

Austin

1655923373782

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

14

0

ANYONE

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1

1655873402959

1655923372409

{"0f1357d0ef24": 7.3032789119354575, "162e4824ca52": 13.150399302243184, "27de7f21ae38": 4.405271334732481, "2aef1e56dd43": 2.613181062443784, "7082760a7161": 24.243642508653824, "77f400dc7b6d": 4.819564447109488, "83f62c257d55": 3.030881190547575, "8968b621b169": 9.648668538253975, "96747d6d2d42": 7.280792608138682, "...

True

0.4999999999999997

uBy1f3rTLMZ6F5rg2DeE

{"NO": 326.450492925894, "YES": 30.632516160023258}

1

will-i-achieve-more-than-move-440ca

245.5233590124634

Will I achieve more than Move (440cal) and Exercise (20min) Apple Watch rings at least 6/7 times this week?

1656267131386

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.435088143430113

True

play

YES

public

1655752138685

Charlie

Last week: 420cal and 15 min: YES Week before: 370cal and 5 min: YES Week before that: 500cal and 35min: NO I will not bet NO on this market. Already got 19 exercise minutes today. Jun 21, 12:01am: got both rings for Monday. Jun 22, 10:24am: missed the calorie goal yesterday :(. Jun 22, 8:28pm: got both rings for...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.026148061642564, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656267131386

100

Charlie

1656239422539

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

3

0

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529555025}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm", "createdTime": 1664839983156}]

["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"]

0.5

1656239418844

0.914214579297855

24J4Lp4H2HKmTELCOjco

who-will-win-the-israeli-elections

508.3045196703613

Who will win the Israeli elections?

1665633540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.738066297171066

True

play

e718cffef4b4

public

1655755255781

Enopoletus Harding

Resolves to the party of the Prime Minister following the next Israeli elections. Only the first result shall be selected if there are repeat answers.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672362496890

520

EnopoletusHarding

1665606112556

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

10

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ANYONE

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9

10

[{"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562024}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467453}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "g...

["israeli-politics", "politics-default", "israel", "us-politics"]

1665606112314

1658458655394

False

{"e718cffef4b4": 100}

True

6JsLLJt4zTCbjU6qlG9V

in-year-2030-what-will-the-general

24.9900994951485

In year 2030, what will the general US population think of the effectiveness and necessity of the measures the government took against the COVID-19 in years 2020-2022?

1896123540000

iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655756698644

JuJumper

Will split proportionally according to my subjective understanding, hopefully based on then-recentish poll on ~this subject

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

300

JuJumper

1685950048074

0

https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e

5

0

ANYONE

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4

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}, {"name": "Less Than Zero Covid", "slug": "less-than-zero-covid", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "BSkJvdFOVQ39jaPIrYnj", "createdTime": 167357196498...

["medicine", "less-than-zero-covid"]

1685950047951

True

H4HbEUlw3liRzCLAbGo0

what-percentage-of-voters-will-supp

644.7020940566031

What percentage of voters will support the Seattle approval voting initiative?

1668060281457

8hlZ5F9ttDdWux1F1SwGfeQR0nr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.724687592222844

True

play

5eda12295fdc

public

1655756946305

parker friedland

In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use approval voting during their primaries. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-n...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668060281457

919.9999999999994

parkerfriedland

1668060182535

0

https://firebasestorage.…2bb-54a8e49f95c2

7

0

ANYONE

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7

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529430875}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529479802}]

["us-politics", "politics-default"]

1668060182395

{"5eda12295fdc": 100}

True

S7vHaT44xz8u6U8Ws0QK

which-country-will-win-group-c-of-t

3090.688105797254

Which country will win Group C of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669841100000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.63208841347409

True

play

1488a5a4278a

public

1655758331435

JAAM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_C Betting concludes at the end of last match of the group stage (November 30). This market will be resolved according to tie-breaking criteria for group play (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_stage)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669842372348

860

egroj

1669843684780

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

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0

ANYONE

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17

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529402520}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583463}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdT...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "india"]

1669840933658

1669843682426

False

{"1488a5a4278a": 100}

True

0.5000000000000001

CNcIqlvQC9vX3EWQKlNq

{"NO": 13.438646662076426, "YES": 744.1225483083623}

0

is-it-possible-to-force-a-draw-in-t

870

Is it possible to force a draw in tic-tac-toe against a player who is trying to either win or lose?

1655833796927

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

cpmm-1

0

4.518438888441516

True

play

NO

public

1655758818834

Andrew G

Two players, Alice and Bob, are playing a tic-tac-toe variant. Bob secretly flips a fair coin; if it's heads, he tries to win; if it's tails, he tries to lose. Bob wins if he manages to fulfil his goal, and Alice wins otherwise. Is it possible for Alice to win 100% of the time? Jun 20, 5:00pm: Resolves when I see a co...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 7.541727754558485, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655833796927

100

AndrewG

1710206718919

0

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5

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi"}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}]

["gaming", "science-default"]

0.5

1655833771036

1655833415691

0.048077702809384414

0.5

DuC2CbpLitD16RhdY8pA

{"NO": 55.493408156187826, "YES": 180.20158307550156}

0

i-will-resolve-this-in-the-most-pro

248.7227333257753

I will resolve this in the most profitable way for me.

1656053940000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

2.9435445023169686

True

play

NO

public

1655759845841

SneakySly

Through smart bets or clever convincing I can be swayed. I will resolve this in the way that looks most beneficial to me personally.

BINARY

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0

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0

1656092933447

100

SneakySly

1656001532850

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

6

0

1

0.5

1656001531687

0.23544585256645323

sv22X3LkYWw1Yuu93ber

what-do-think-is-the-best-argument

184

What do think is the best argument against the Chinese Room thought experiment?

1656367140000

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.777024142843157

True

play

b828a03a95db

public

1655761214374

Mr Stone

I will choose the answer according to whichever answer destroys the Chinese Room experiment as an argument against conscious computers. It is possible I choose multiple answers if I really like them. Jun 20, 11:52pm: the title was meant to say: what do **I** think is the best...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.4, "platformFee": 1.6, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656444382636

680.0000000000001

stone

1656431211877

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1b8466c072ca", "prob": 0.12398333663955564, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.198394232094217, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.598574286284897, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sv22X3LkYWw1Yuu93ber", "createdTime": 1655761214448, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529535423}]

["science-default"]

1656313961792

1656431207075

{"b828a03a95db": 100}

True

Y1bgUQIM2NHLvKDON6Qr

what-nonscheduled-event-will-happen

25.980954108314236

What non-scheduled event will happen last, but before 2023?

1669870740000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.957361663617766

True

play

02c73eaa12e5

public

1655761658733

Duncn

When I read the responses at the end of 2022, what event will have happened most recently? Scheduled and highly predictable events (e.g., Christmas, The 2022 United States elections) or that cannot be confirmed through a simple Google search or stated reference site (e.g., no "I will dance the Macarana", but "the total...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672590213206

540

Duncn

1672595820639

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d0534c526695", "prob": 0.6714526776181459, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.63814306803197, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.39526969404227, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y1bgUQIM2NHLvKDON6Qr", "createdTime": 1655761658814, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

7

6

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418813}]

["world-default"]

1668815975988

1672595819519

{"02c73eaa12e5": 100}

True

0.4999999999999977

iT3cbkRpjGfSD6sIhGtG

{"NO": 898.2031542021371, "YES": 11.133338769983368}

1

do-i-want-some-free-mana-today

800

Do I want some free mana today?

1655773200000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

4.812694351025826

True

play

YES

public

1655763393200

Matt P

Will resolve honestly.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7968457978630261, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655775659506

100

MattP

1655767696081

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

3

0

0.5

1655767694765

0.9877566348034766

0.500000000000007

8iCFwnBP9i6LUy126ob5

{"NO": 1532.2173046638063, "YES": 6.526489401706726}

1

will-i-find-my-wallet-before-i-leav

1779.0557434746042

Will I find my wallet before I leave Mexico City?

1655961160265

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

5.419751814745745

True

play

YES

public

1655764579170

Austin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.451578930340033, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655961160265

100

Austin

1655961167229

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

19

0

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434248}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1655961050601

1655961163769

0.10012842677163704

0.49999999999999784

9ntcc79PMYU1T7bvzIor

{"NO": 1099.1803278688526, "YES": 9.097688292319049}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-ffde9c1443ff

1000

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655765276194

XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3

cpmm-1

0

5.142593748050627

True

play

YES

public

1655765267941

Hugh Mann

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8196721311475308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655765276194

100

unit_24601

1655765274968

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4

1

0

0.5

1655765273638

0.5

0.49999999999999883

YANeWteWHQDgL9CEEiPL

{"NO": 1599.4163424124513, "YES": 6.252280744434984}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-1faf35ea249f

1500

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655765295534

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

5.414596999556532

True

play

YES

public

1655765285251

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5836575875486361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655765295534

100

PeterBerggrenf455

1655765293585

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655765292363

0.5

0.49999999999999967

zqzjsf3rpXtk2SyrQCpC

{"NO": 798.9230769230769, "YES": 12.51684960523778}

1

will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-a612071a367c

700

Will I resolve this question "YES?"

1655765320895

sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2

cpmm-1

0

4.62792015674975

True

play

YES

public

1655765311894

Say Jarva

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.076923076923073, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655765320895

100

SayJarva

1655765319333

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1655765318163

0.5

NbvvdW7EI0wevPA45kP6

farming-manna

337

Farming manna

1655766932072

qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.723334101481492

True

play

20bc6108626c

public

1655766876506

1

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655766932072

240

1

1655766919092

0

https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b9601b33f4c1", "prob": 0.05236451989589933, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.954243403602819, "userId": "qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.46264745065986, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NbvvdW7EI0wevPA45kP6", "createdTime": 1655766876583, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1655766917900

{"20bc6108626c": 100}

True

kaTqaNJRBvsVJ83vYj7D

proof-of-work-market-i-will-select

1805.819327327632

Proof of work market: I will select the lowest MD5 hash submitted

1656201540000

W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6571547895097485

True

play

fe46b9ba0f0b

public

1655769865320

Franek Żak

Submit answers in the format: "proofofworkmarket[<insert anything here>]":<MD5 hash of the string between quotes>. I will select as correct the answer with the lowest hash value, where it is a valid md5 hash of the string between the quotes. The string must start with the words "proofofworkmarket", and can contain any...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 27.439263421935692, "platformFee": 6.859815855483923, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656277924792

780

FranekZak

1656302412578

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giu-jDdu0qUhUs4WMYNTCeGDxzYZfojXayhjegvsrk=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "05f70b7b993d", "prob": 0.007378349615890086, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04134855432809616, "userId": "W5dtB2cQekRSc4GTqqJaiA7gSJS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.562689812063151, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kaTqaNJRBvsVJ83vYj7D", "createdTime": 1655769865408, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

1656201395664

1656302408430

{"fe46b9ba0f0b": 100}

True

0.5000000000000027

qnpt9AQwEtdDNrY9lL74

{"NO": 1301.2353074986897, "YES": 7.685005119652487}

1

will-the-best-hash-produced-in-the

1522.3819086003568

Will the best hash produced in the linked question lead with 10 or more zeros?

1656197768832

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

cpmm-1

0

5.427958926625416

True

play

YES

public

1655773220824

Undox

Linked question: https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/proof-of-work-market-i-will-select

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.888354615134476, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656197768832

100

Undox

1656197764734

0

https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a

7

0

0.5

1656197760930

0.9781198368008048

0.22193630507512507

3XsU0mQER3ZSuikyMyBp

{"NO": 93.88318497936669, "YES": 1355.0396400031584}

0

will-pope-francis-resign-before-202

2430.4504058476105

Will Pope Francis resign before 2022-08-01?

1659268740000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

3.3591370015300503

True

play

NO

public

1655778755353

N.C. Young

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.928723919857214, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659308323308

200

NcyRocks

1659229742006

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

22

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…fb2-ff880cb7388c

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529412702}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1672828978948}]

["world-default", "religion"]

0.5

1659229740887

0.019379824455400905

0.38059180666698644

ITFYcV0WTMshmIg8APOX

{"NO": 167.38346992088253, "YES": 1609.961557141256}

0

will-solana-trade-under-20-before-a

1658.899108055873

Will Solana trade under $20 before Aug 1, 2022?

1659337140000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

1.3279928811675825

True

play

NO

public

1655779234470

Ben

Resolves YES if Solana has a “low” price of <$20.00 for any day between market creation and July 31, 2022. Will use CoinMarketCap for the data source https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 33.23539014175577, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659357716349

400

bcongdon

1659294828355

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

13

0

1

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441536}]

["crypto-prices"]

0.5

1659294828209

1659058941459

0.06004626875344805

0.8127678937569082

hhmWPvqinOVn1nxpTUAf

{"NO": 884.9677655058247, "YES": 90.20866761560072}

1

will-us-nominal-gdp-growth-exceed-5

1138.1438506633726

Will U.S. nominal GDP growth exceed 5% in 2022?

1674712740000

rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73

cpmm-1

0

4.116059000141041

True

play

YES

public

1655783075579

Wilson Kime

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.423563930580297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674755709003

180

wilsonkime

1674637983005

0

https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776

17

0

1

14

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529573479}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1674637982843

1666884603223

0.98

0.43061874614145457

1wLTLcjl4SbWKmMxwA0E

{"NO": 47.69559364047002, "YES": 364.72615566029066}

0

will-the-pitch-drop-in-the-pitch-dr

274.3508617875459

Will the Pitch Drop in the "Pitch Drop Experiment" Pass the lip of the beaker placed below it some time this year?

1672549140000

lECrAcNteYcQvm1UpKAsCefbdqx1

cpmm-1

0

3.0504132747072927

True

play

NO

public

1655784968365

Jay

We're still probably at least a handful of years out to the touchdown of the pitch drop, but predicting progress seems interesting. This question Will Resolve YES if the pitch drop in the "Pitch drop experiment" as per this live-stream http://thetenthwatch.com/feed/ passes the top edge of the beaker before the end of t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5572195765282144, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678171250551

120

JacobIannelli

1672233190954

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOlr6Fo5k2THqrJoOEQ4vDUXBE9KJLgC-PaO9j=s96-c

8

0

14

9

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529521880}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1672233190756

0.09

0.36464472533817943

8EyCOdCKJqUUH77s0AyH

{"NO": 313.36811454679565, "YES": 591.4932608228285}

1

do-you-predict-bmi-will-correlate-w

1004

Do you predict BMI will correlate with sexual attraction to obesity or weight gain?

1656478740000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

1.005385232359649

True

play

YES

public

1655789224467

Aella

In my survey, I asked people their weight and height, and calculated BMI off of this. I also asked if they were sexually aroused by severe obesity, and also if they were aroused by weight gain. For this question I'm checking males only, n=18,000 If there was a correlation (more than r=0.12) with either one, I will reso...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 35.77685102898029, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656480172392

400

Aella

1656463057272

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

37

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523537}, {"name": "Differential Psychology", "slug": "differential-psychology", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "uC4Dv1bqR2HhA54hcPBX", "createdTime": 1679778971213}]

["science-default", "differential-psychology"]

0.5

1656463056035

1656054175518

0.2331637100514591

0.5000000000000147

xxwy9Cwv6doVYbwvxQKW

{"NO": 3506.7232117607136, "YES": 2.8516650434407893}

1

v-e3f1a8b041f3

3407

v

1655792535574

MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3

cpmm-1

0

5.349540062777424

True

play

YES

public

1655792515054

Electricitypipe

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27678823928638663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1655792535574

100

Electricitypipe

1655792529243

0

https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35

1

0

0.5

1655792528029

0.5

ajYITIaWsNydEEcOxLWs

how-many-startup-employees-will-be-0196e16231be

1544.9771485602382

How many startup employees will be laid off in July?

1659941940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.65517319509322

True

play

be169818563f

public

1655793910585

Adrian

How many startup employees will Layoffs.fyi report were laid off in July? May was 16,985 and April was 3,765 Only answers created by me are valid, and I will wait one week after the month ends to resolve, to allow for reporting lag. https://layoffs.fyi/ Previously: How many startup employees will be laid off in June?...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.72210242243013, "platformFee": 2.6805256056075324, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659952521607

600

ahalekelly

1659930659548

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6b6ba1f4d7e0", "prob": 0.006685453257661309, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.049362301089365034, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.334176134812115, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ajYITIaWsNydEEcOxLWs", "createdTime": 1655793910667, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571897}]

["economics-default"]

1659930658293

1655855443449

{"be169818563f": 100}

True

pFFAeuf69AwyFOgOBh3W

how-many-qualityadjusted-life-years

14

How many quality-adjusted life years will "Long Covid" take away from an average adult on the West Coast of the United States of America?

1659423540000

0nDYxA5ER9QjsUXxVFfvdHtvpQx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1655794919951

Zian Choy

Provide both a # (or confidence interval + mean) and a citation or explanation for your prediction. The answer with the most convincing evidence will win. If two answers are equally persuasive, I will choose the one with the tighter range. Definitions: - Long Covid: Whatever the Wikipedia page says at the time the qu...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

300

ZianChoy

1702186548809

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzkVD4cwwUKKFKdeVDEB_hOByKSySjA5MN_WPtR=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "345b4dd2527b", "prob": 0.7694675284702985, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.964312270746724, "userId": "0nDYxA5ER9QjsUXxVFfvdHtvpQx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.66570795631572, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pFFAeuf69AwyFOgOBh3W", "createdTime": 1655794920051, "probChanges": {"day": -0.23053247152...

1

5

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601085}]

["medicine"]

1657155366574

1702186548109

True

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{"NO": 150.73311129028522, "YES": 96.49171584232855}

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will-the-un-have-more-or-less-than

32.000000000000085

Will the UN have more or less than 193 member states in 2030?

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

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1655794950355

Scott Lawrence

At the end of June 2030, how many member states will the UN have? As I write this, there are 193: will this number increase, decrease, or stay the same? If the number of member states is 194 or greater, this question resolves YES. If the number is 192 or fewer, this question resolves NO. If the number is 193, this que...

BINARY

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I will squat 100kg (5 sets of 5 reps) before the end of 2022

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3.476031227886432

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Bart

I'm doing Stronglifts 5x5 again and am currently squatting 70kg (5x5). The maximum I've ever squatted was 92.5kg (5x5) in February 2020, but then stopped lifting due to covid.

BINARY

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will-i-remember-to-resolve-this-mar

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Will I remember to resolve this market to YES between 3pm and 4pm CEST today?

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1655802732153

Bart

I'm intending to resolve this market to YES between 3pm and 4pm CEST today. If I forget to do this I will resolve the market to NO later. Note: I'm working today and have not set any reminders.

BINARY

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will-i-get-covid-in-2022-67b0e9b79c1d

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Will I get COVID in 2022?

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YES

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1655804556573

William Ehlhardt

Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO. Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them. If you email your question privately to williamehlhardt@gmail....

BINARY

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1660793300010

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WilliamEhlhardt

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stormlight-archive-is-the-character

416.2026256452855

[Stormlight Archive] Is the character we see in the prologue chapter for SA5 the person they claim to be?

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eVvEQtyZdLUmKGrun3MtXtkCNsu2

cpmm-1

0.07762303139050637

9.664743001512615

False

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1655813949084

Rutger

In the prologue for Stormlight Archive book five we see an entity that is referred to as the Stormfather, but which behaves very differently from the Stormfather we have seen in previous books. This has led people to speculate whether the Stormfather in the prologue is the same spren we've seen in Stormlight 1-4. Wi...

BINARY

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1000

Rutger

1715293225178

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0.5

1715293221713

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does-sperm-donation-maximize-inclus

502.3234556457903

Does sperm donation maximize inclusive genetic fitness?

1658469540000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

4.057763815329917

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655815323809

Martin Randall

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/deceptively-aligned-mesa-optimizers Scott claims that he doesn't want to donate sperm to maximize his reproductive fitness. But is donating sperm a good strategy for that (where applicable)? I plan to research this over the next month and resolve this market to my guess on the pr...

BINARY

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1664484206988

143.6418820001519

MartinRandall

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will-someone-join-one-of-my-daily-t

125

Will someone join one of my daily tea pourings this week?

1656399600000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

2.9647427181953563

True

play

NO

public

1655821695027

Em ✨

I'm trying to get in the habit of taking quiet moments for myself. Every morning I bring my tea stuff, meditation cushion, and coffee table outside to the grassy areas of my apartment complex and meditatively pour some tea. No one has joined over the last several days but I'm hopeful uwu

BINARY

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hamnox

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0.6056897650372172

will-i-make-over-20-at-the-swap-mee

25

Will I make over $20 at the swap meet?

1656226740000

5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2

cpmm-1

0

2.7955744502192

True

play

CANCEL

public

1655821950401

Em ✨

I have stuff I'm trying to sell / get rid of, mostly books and games.

BINARY

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hamnox

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1

will-this-market-trade-42069-in-vol

44071.13171023902

Will this market trade >42,069 in volume before GeorgeVii's market trades >250,000?

1656257147377

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cpmm-1

0

5.307323818207932

True

play

YES

public

1655822558636

Jack

Resolves YES if the volume bet exceeds M$42,069 before the volume bet on https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/this-market-will-have-traded-m25000 exceeds M$250,000. Notice: I will bet in both markets

BINARY

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1656257147377

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jack

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{"NO": 90.11210884042964, "YES": 110.97287732670846}

1

will-more-than-3-people-tell-me-poi

150

Will more than 3 people tell me point blank to stop posting prediction markers in one of the ratty discord servers?

1655992640277

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

0

2.778006308884407

True

play

YES

public

1655824618983

Cedar

I intend to post random prediction markets (like this one) all around the place. I'm in a bunch of ACX, EA, etc. discords. "Post in another channel" doesn't count. "Stop posting" counts.

BINARY

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1655992640277

100

Cedar

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0

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1655915965714

1655992725848

0.4481294728067372

1kRUSix4pKLa6uiTFKot

how-many-pomodoros-25-minute-work-s

32

How many pomodoros (25 minute work sessions) will I do today?

1655855676461

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.935288044437528

True

play

a18bb29991eb

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1655827751892

Charlie

Personal goal today is 14. I'm on my third. Market-generated stretch goal: If I reach 14 today, at that time I will calculate a weighted average of all responses. If that weighted average is >14, I will consider that average to be a stretch goal and attempt to continue onward to it. Will resolve to the answer that ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1655855676461

400

Charlie

1655847875906

0

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2

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ANYONE

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["charlies-hack-days"]

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during-which-5-year-period-will-the

607.8959396631114

During which 5 year period will the world get fusion?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1655827870641

Eli Gaultney

Using https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion as a guide, where he suggests: "By ‘get fusion’, I mean Q > 5 for a steady state experiment. If it is not steady state (e.g. inertial confinement fusion), then I also require a shot frequency of at least 1/second. Anyone selling fusion ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1040

EliGaultney

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0

ANYONE

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12

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["science-default", "fusion-energy", "nuclear-power", "nuclear"]

0.10239889344091875

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{"NO": 54.29735467686906, "YES": 738.424774754925}

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will-donald-trump-be-assassinated-b

1032.509359223288

Will Donald Trump be assassinated by the end of the year?

1669870740000

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cpmm-1

0

5.13816371975268

True

play

NO

public

1655828360974

Enopoletus Harding

Natural death doesn't count. Many people are suggesting Trump is a fascist.

BINARY

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EnopoletusHarding

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0

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