Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
ljzHE79tCr6QJ0gYdJ26
what-weird-unlikely-thing-will-happ
40
What weird unlikely thing will happen in the week after close?
1656475140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.923348198101932
True
play
MKT
public
1655829881926
Bionic
At the close of this market, I will order the responses from most likely to least likely to happen in the week that follows. Then, one week after close, I will resolve this question to the most unlikely (in my opinion) response that actually ends up happening. The responses may be personal or not. I need to easily be ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.04, "platformFee": 1.26, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656996079213
640.0000000000005
BionicD0LPH1N
1656552055538
0
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "313e75e18427", "prob": 0.5249997689561017, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.04840663299825, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.281916065538322, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ljzHE79tCr6QJ0gYdJ26", "createdTime": 1655829882003, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
1656435810224
1656552054249
{"3be32b183d06": 25, "8203c7e77645": 50, "e80e53a3dba4": 25}
True
0.4999999999999976
M3Upq5KjmHyW5xyb92gX
{"NO": 1101.1001804272767, "YES": 9.081825775488994}
1
will-me-being-at-mexifold-cause-at
1086.0665912183322
Will me being at Mexifold cause at least one feature change?
1657229050522
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
5.145502313178029
True
play
YES
public
1655829973907
SneakySly
If at least one feature/change that I push for gets implemented before market close and Austin says my feedback was relevant I will resolve this YES. Features I plan to advocate for: - Enhanced profile page, in particular making the markets tab of that page have relevance. - Changes to free response markets. - A ch...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.8332283543914105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1657229050522
100
SneakySly
1657229045691
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
7
0
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434875}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1657229044362
1657229016627
0.9800796863078868
0.5
WptOnuifjltKpQPvqbXb
{"NO": 77.58869339486586, "YES": 128.88475836431226}
1
how-many-hours-of-manifold-time-wil
30
How many hours of Manifold time will be spent on ADM? [% * 20]
1655961067015
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
2.8046968630830236
True
play
YES
public
1655830490179
Austin
We don't think it would be worth it if it takes longer than 10h a year; Stephen thinks setup should be 2.5h at most. See also https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-will-manifold-invest-its-cash
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.1152416356877324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655961067015
100
Austin
1655961195458
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
0
0.5
1655830558026
1655961193296
0.3757804828359339
Q95XOuZQhtgwqr1W0oGX
the-next-supreme-court-justice-to-l
2
The next Supreme Court justice to leave will be:
1655831674495
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.012422314310263
True
play
CANCEL
public
1655831546046
Gigacasting
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655831674495
260
Gigacasting
1655831605243
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "28fa5a5f012f", "prob": 0.9611687812379854, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.486705901466486, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3528629184192444, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q95XOuZQhtgwqr1W0oGX", "createdTime": 1655831546129, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529485297}]
["politics-default"]
1655831603991
True
0.500000000000002
83R8mUIAW1VgA0A9cDOS
{"NO": 1745.461830508652, "YES": 5.729142754777968}
1
does-22-4
1646
Does 2*2 = 4 ?
1655834532714
pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3
cpmm-1
0
5.40472558642904
True
play
YES
public
1655834507749
samanddeanus
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.5381694913480953, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655834532714
100
samanddeanus
1655834521000
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c
1
0
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529523463}]
["science-default"]
0.5
1655834519767
0.5
0.6854736587814816
4ZX5NzqTMyf2U84Hf5ii
{"NO": 8560.784577886663, "YES": 148.49027854296818}
1
will-the-creator-earnings-for-this-33cf872fd6d4
26106.894782402473
Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$300?
1656244800000
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
cpmm-1
0
1.653956924730557
True
play
YES
public
1655835562484
Matt P
Resolves to YES if the displayed "creator earnings" in the market info screen are higher than M$300 after market close. SneakySly's M$200 market has a pretty high probability right now, suggesting the market as a whole views that target as fairly easy to hit. Is M$300 still attainable?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 314.96238529835875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656251792647
653.7613027167333
MattP
1656161896572
0
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
10
0
1
0.5
1656161895317
1656134918365
0.9921039861704862
0.49999999999999994
70VNzlU2MbqI8I0fOefr
{"NO": 66.97656125168861, "YES": 149.30596335666434}
0
will-totomoose-be-able-to-focus-tod
51
Will TotoMoose be able to focus today?
1655870340000
pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1
cpmm-1
0
2.8523879789025086
True
play
NO
public
1655835592643
Cedar
(TotoMoose decides how this question resolves)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6940366433356702, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655898893519
100
Cedar
1655839904532
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c
3
0
1
0.5
1655839904380
1655835633346
0.3096716268361051
JhlzDZmmThbBLZ8MiR9w
in-what-year-will-i-be-able-to-orde
20
In what year will I be able to order items online to be delivered by drone in rural UK?
1925009940000
IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655837036655
GeorgeVii
Islands and Sottish highlands don't count. Must be "last mile" delivery (ie to my door, not to the depot)
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
440.00000000000006
GeorgeVii
1682977939097
0
https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "5160f78df3d5", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.17632353407243, "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.47758235499187, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JhlzDZmmThbBLZ8MiR9w", "createdTime": 1655837036756, "probChanges": {"day": -0.305555555555...
3
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529446714}]
["technology-default"]
1682977938948
1665262197344
True
True
0.499999999999999
nWYkkIHmkVWMvLcMc4bR
{"NO": 867.1417910031453, "YES": 11.532139384530836}
1
will-my-website-have-more-unique-vi
1250.3304185950983
Will my website have more unique visitors in June than in May?
1656553291428
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
cpmm-1
0
4.75663507496133
True
play
YES
public
1655838507131
Andrew G
This question resolves "YES" if my website gets more unique visitors in June 2022 than in May 2022, according to my server logs. Historical data (monthly visitors compared to May): Feb: 0.84x Mar: 0.99x Apr: 1.06x May: 1.00x [by definition] Jun: 0.72x [so far] Jun 22, 3:50pm: 0.78x Jun 24, 6:49pm: 0.85x Jun 27, 2:1...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 14.527790401756326, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656553291428
100
AndrewG
1656537115770
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
4
0
0.5
1656537114510
1656521423551
0.9868755189089964
MnYToI75bNwhMJgBaUsr
which-user-will-have-the-comment-wi
580.851585655723
Which user will have the comment with the most tips?
1656298800000
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.696778739317406
True
play
48b9efb415b5
public
1655839083849
Adrian
Jun 21, 10:01pm: I just realized that tips can still change after the market closes. I will do my best to screenshot the comments at closing time. And I won't bet in this market
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.791607402229396, "platformFee": 1.947901850557349, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656361481909
540
ahalekelly
1656358606589
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2a235d2c4e7f", "prob": 0.02900709352941004, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4233693141855294, "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.172002461214133, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MnYToI75bNwhMJgBaUsr", "createdTime": 1655839083936, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
1656298783904
1656358600103
{"48b9efb415b5": 100}
True
0.4999999999999995
YVV9kVhkoMks7dn7m9h2
{"NO": 171.57818067855106, "YES": 58.28246902055017}
1
im-going-camping-this-weekend-will
74
I'm going camping this weekend. Will it rain?
1656072000000
MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2
cpmm-1
0
2.9165817994202556
True
play
YES
public
1655839896009
Jonathan Nankivell
This weekend I will go camping near Swindon, UK. I will be there 1pm Friday til 1pm Sunday. If it rains at any point, this question resolves YES. If it does not rain, this question resolves NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.421819321448907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656258103482
100
JonathanNankivell
1656001411426
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c
7
0
1
0.5
1656001411286
0.7464443387902852
aNHGE4mlVvSwIUhRZdgr
what-countries-will-make-it-to-the
22555.55069225624
What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage?
1669733940000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.619175031439758
True
basic
MKT
public
1655844629355
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decor...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670017021728
10100
egroj
1670051356250
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
72
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "3d3e6aca57de", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004666531802313053, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.328599369354214, "textFts": "", "contractId": "aNHGE4mlVvSwIUhRZdgr", "createdTime": 1655844629518, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}...
1
73
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405018}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658529583625}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]
1669733816433
1670051348719
{"2487bab58da2": 6.666666666666667, "26a6cba4d38e": 6.666666666666667, "7a3808bdab7d": 6.666666666666667, "7bbfa00a6547": 6.666666666666667, "813c15ad4e14": 6.666666666666667, "96fa33fd32c8": 6.666666666666667, "9e5a287d4f67": 6.666666666666667, "a8751f936328": 6.666666666666667, "ac78f31ed89c": 6.666666666666667, "b5e...
True
0.5000000000000001
pgSJnCKJ8sCO4Js87UgV
{"NO": 117.69717593244619, "YES": 84.96380580736809}
1
will-babishpestoembarrassmentcom-co
170.83261004321946
Will babishpestoembarrassment.com continue to receive at least 10 daily unique visitors a month from now?
1658473140000
UjjXOoTjvNPGA2pQJaXbjd3nmmZ2
cpmm-1
0
2.7858495710861426
True
play
YES
public
1655845375243
Sydney Yin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if cloudflare registers at least 10 unique visitors to https://www.babishpestoembarrassment.com on 07/20/2022. Current cloudflare analytics graph, for reference: https://imgur.com/a/OqtC7uC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.3668639238358082, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658772366270
100
Skyedelaciel
1657957107934
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1tbx0Tsb77aVS3rhaMDIkHOUw1S_xcAXCltiXRw=s96-c
6
0
1
0.5
1657957106682
1655855345841
0.5807589350551523
0.3266628750671658
lwlps8UnH7m6Z1WSUhGc
{"NO": 32.64670226745584, "YES": 786.9847790279692}
0
will-manifold-markets-have-an-expli
963.4199661066571
Will Manifold Markets have an explicit rule against assassination markets?
1672556340000
FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1
cpmm-1
0
4.469370171818574
True
play
NO
public
1655845443249
Scott Lawrence
This question resolves YES if at any point this year, Manifold states in public (e.g. in "Above the fold", or on the about page) that assassination markets and similar are subject to removal. Jun 21, 4:53pm: I've realized the resolution of this market may end up being ambiguous. I've sold all my shares (at a loss) and...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.336326842678643, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672559394008
120
ScottLawrence
1672554353570
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575
21
0
1
22
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672099553963}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1672554353458
1669136363070
0.02
0.500000000000015
aSchp4NFBDJvxxHHlSxM
{"NO": 3540.725787913487, "YES": 2.8242797095826973}
1
s
3441
s
1655847089968
MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3
cpmm-1
0
5.349007470907209
True
play
YES
public
1655847072886
Electricitypipe
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.2742120865132794, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655847089968
100
Electricitypipe
1655847085689
0
https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35
1
0
0.5
1655847084443
0.5
0.46822461113402125
ChZx47aFYcBQ6zWXoHaf
{"NO": 88.59943405700356, "YES": 165.77379737113262}
0
will-i-use-deno-seriously-this-year
66.77494169725142
Will I use Deno seriously this year?
1672491540000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
0
2.501174595431812
True
play
NO
public
1655851904559
Undox
Deno is the successor (I guess?) to Node.js. Inspired by https://deno.com/blog/series-a - I keep hearing about this, but I am reluctant to get into it because I am very used to Node, and everything online assumes you are using the common Node/NPM combo. Resolves YES if I if I use it for a purpose at work or a side proj...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9567368963231037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672700926160
120
Undox
1672129068780
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
7
0
1
8
0.5
1672129068615
0.32
0.5
NYDhnTD9m4PBUaDaOykA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
what-are-the-highestev-ways-to-go-d
0
What are the highest-EV ways to go deeper down the Beeminder rabbit hole?
1655854238767
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1655854210813
Daniel Reeves
I plan to resolve this using my own judgment, as Beeminder cofounder, but I'll be influenced a lot by the betting itself. I.e., this will be resolved somewhat beauty-contest style. "Highest EV" refers to expected value. Like something that probably won't work but would be huge if it does still has high EV. Related ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655854238767
100
dreev
1655854210813
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
0
0
[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664382988800}]
["beeminder"]
0.5
0.5
0.2619558639370673
jVMweStepxM0qTLDMNPz
{"NO": 87.01829514778845, "YES": 768.2448288920857}
0
will-sheryl-sandberg-tweet-in-2022
991.7605382913996
Will Sheryl Sandberg tweet in 2022?
1672559940000
HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2
cpmm-1
0
3.0864721305026177
True
play
NO
public
1655854287421
Ben
Resolves YES if @sherylsandberg (or another account that is verifiably Sheryl Sandberg) posts at least 1 tweet in 2022. Context: Sheryl Sandberg recently announced that she's stepping down as COO of Meta. On this podcast episode [1], there was speculation that Sandberg would start hanging out on Twitter, like e.g. Jef...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.1640799305572718, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672678439976
180
bcongdon
1672108913089
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c
9
0
1
8
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529453028}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1672108912987
0.04
Qa9qxbVCOHcLTWE0x7wG
what-are-the-highestev-ways-to-go-d-69531ae4391a
466.80788898791013
What's the best way to go deeper down the Beeminder rabbit hole?
1709366340000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655854311888
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New resolution criteria: We'll repeat these options as a poll in the Beeminder forum and resolve to what the Beeminder community judges best.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Best\" should be...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
860.0000000000001
dreev
1708420995030
0
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e0672a8e930f", "prob": 0.07336605639590649, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3762502203104208, "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.38242767405177, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Qa9qxbVCOHcLTWE0x7wG", "createdTime": 1655854312097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
33
https://firebasestorage.…0fb-800037e1efa1
5
[{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664383147439}]
["beeminder"]
1708420994829
1702966041151
True
True
0.49999999999999994
VJUGVo1q0lslDmPnltRI
{"NO": 323.6863642499742, "YES": 30.894103380509705}
1
will-my-friend-successfully-birth-h
302.81058451037336
Will my friend successfully birth her baby by tomorrow at 5 pm EST?
1655927426244
QBnj7MaZCbf81ildFCqTwE08Eyv2
cpmm-1
0
3.4260834554636985
True
play
YES
public
1655857281230
Em
She is 39 weeks along. Went in to the hospital June 20th 11pm to be induced. Starting at midnight (June 21st) they gave her cytotec which is a vaginal suppository that softens the cervix until 1pm (June 21st) then she was given synthetic oxytocin to force contractions until 6pm. They are planning on putting in the foll...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.128834756826227, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655927426244
100
ES221712
1655950978139
0
https://firebasestorage.…dd1-ddfb68630def
9
0
0.5
1655926892182
1655950973580
0.9350785398536164
svMxtqmuW82q5snksCqX
lets-say-you-got-a-free-m100-a-day
120.16330407828082
Let’s say you got a free $M100 a day. What kind of market would you prefer to bet on?
1656820740000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.8247960467031925
True
play
MKT
public
1655857953274
Duncn
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656846690847
540
Duncn
1656007039221
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
11
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "921289ecd26b", "prob": 0.21869332585763232, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.256195395799747, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.0688063366512, "textFts": "", "contractId": "svMxtqmuW82q5snksCqX", "createdTime": 1655857953362, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
1
1656006937158
1656007033775
{"1244e901e113": 37.395660922620294, "3cfdd78ddcfc": 1.319392228151588, "6e22d72b7afe": 6.59696114075794, "77fdbfd3b6e7": 16.53270457019956, "8c626a60de46": 1.2349609347965824, "97a1f11cfd2a": 1.319392228151588, "ae49fe014dee": 1.1772524798995456, "d4ecba5adfc1": 22.372032447978246, "f5287d6cca2f": 12.051643047444669}
True
0.756112793354155
Asd6eOfrvLls8VnuR4Pk
{"NO": 1083.3345086458496, "YES": 80.5126411890239}
1
will-wikipedias-current-events-incl-48fd43a4b860
928.2345862587019
Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an ongoing event on 2023-01-01?
1672488000000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-1
0
3.4272634457493454
True
play
YES
public
1655861050569
N.C. Young
Jun 22, 1:26pm: I'll look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events at some point on that day and resolve as I see it. Jun 22, 1:26pm: Anything similar like "Russo-Ukrainian War" will also resolve YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.4527687484240257, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672609772835
180
NcyRocks
1671063534382
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
22
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…44d-474f19c7be8c
23
[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671063566606}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663006609336}, {"na...
["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "how-it-ends"]
0.5
1671063534221
1665738737588
0.98
0.49999999999993006
SsU4EX4ueGEIIfa5cSs3
{"NO": 43.6895212851635, "YES": 228.8878363933748}
0
will-i-learn-rust-by-september
202687.66111636756
Will I learn Rust by September?
1662004740000
nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143
cpmm-1
0
3.1060625349958184
True
play
NO
public
1655867358958
Peter Berggren
I'm currently learning Rust with the intention of building apps for the Solana blockchain. This question resolves based on whether I've finished reading "The Rust Programming Language" by September 1, 2022. Jun 25, 8:15pm: I have just finished chapter 3 out of 20 in "The Rust Programming Language." I can now write a ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 15.562983202542865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662032680947
100
PeterBerggren
1662004688045
0
https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023
36
0
1
36
0.5
1662004686738
1655880192350
0.16028301711207463
0.499999999999999
Tc2kyGqCej9Jwm3vDXaG
{"NO": 553.8318685683392, "YES": 18.05602127203354}
1
planecrashrot13-jvyy-pnevffn-fryy-u
575.273830156474
[planecrash][ROT13] Jvyy Pnevffn fryy ure fbhy va "gur jbzna bs vebev"?
1656050541765
zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1
cpmm-1
0
4.087338266154302
True
play
YES
public
1655867420138
Robert Kennedy
This question resolves YES if Carissa sells her soul to anyone during the course of "the woman of irori". This market resolves N/A at the end of the year if this thread is still going/abandoned.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.89430127518672, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656050541765
100
RobertKennedy
1656050525940
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgovhYtKaBS0WIN2IHeAUhEETQaS-e2zZTgvTQAYA=s96-c
9
0
[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392523}]
["glowfic"]
0.5
1656050524541
1655987770592
0.9544008724650953
0.5042111783432907
CKbhBdkqFimT0RvugclL
{"NO": 999.791226611831, "YES": 1000.1660669072705}
0.5041174727680235
what-share-of-the-popular-vote-will
75.02522146587052
What share of the popular vote will the Democratic nominee for president receive in the next election?
1733288340000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
9.571084919671714
False
basic
public
1655875402689
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
BINARY
{"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.70902381640111, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LivInTheLookingGlass
1708517420088
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
14
0
14
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659853630441}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492261}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "o...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "olivia"]
0.08927312527532065
0.5
1708517420088
0.5000000000000001
FanwLYxJm5Q3CVGBFbM3
{"NO": 80.5564094168956, "YES": 124.13661522881428}
0
will-i-notice-the-moon-outside-my-w
46
Will I Notice the moon outside my window?
1656561540000
lECrAcNteYcQvm1UpKAsCefbdqx1
cpmm-1
0
2.7959172597617377
True
play
NO
public
1655878594532
Jay
I have a north facing window that I sometimes see the moon out of. This market will resolve yes immediately if the moon is ever bright enough for me to notice it through that window in the next week.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.8569964267370591, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656618198647
100
JacobIannelli
1656454561196
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOlr6Fo5k2THqrJoOEQ4vDUXBE9KJLgC-PaO9j=s96-c
3
0
1
0.5
1656454559954
0.3935474086443619
0.49999999999999095
rfiX26A7wnnYpTzvM80Z
{"NO": 3537.7255625329476, "YES": 2.826674885668581}
1
v-dee425c84707
3438
v
1655879747899
MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3
cpmm-1
0
5.349054058117678
True
play
YES
public
1655879725868
Electricitypipe
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.2744374670523487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655879747899
100
Electricitypipe
1655879743295
0
https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35
1
0
0.5
1655879742063
0.5
0.428981975960115
mYQwZ7bPLqnf8pvxWPHh
{"NO": 278.0882018147066, "YES": 327.9715007615922}
0.38912439985981306
conditional-on-taking-radvac-will-i
42
Conditional on taking RaDVaC, will I get COVID in 2022?
1660793298210
Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23
cpmm-1
0
1.1821509111619504
True
play
CANCEL
public
1655879972624
William Ehlhardt
https://radvac.org/ has published a recipe for a DIY COVID-19 vaccine, which has been intermittently updated as new strains emerge. I'm trying to estimate whether it would be worth taking. If I take RaDVaC by 1 August 2022, this will be resolved the same way as https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660793298210
300
WilliamEhlhardt
1656127189287
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c
7
0
0.5
1656127188043
1655946340428
0.38912439985981306
0.4541113991516007
Qmdt7JMQjMc8d5hVvDDI
{"NO": 81.39483677693799, "YES": 182.8063885862273}
0.27028281789628916
how-many-seats-will-likud-win-in-is
121.67588999604259
How many seats will Likud win in Israel's next elections?
1668164348882
e7vQaQHWrcRixDLP03bqnfAU7wa2
cpmm-1
0
2.5639977329613397
True
play
MKT
public
1655881212146
zzq
This question resolves to PROB equal to the percentage of seats Likud wins in the next Israeli elections. e.g. if Likud wins 30 seats (out of the 120 in the Knesset), this question resolves to 30/120 = 25%.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.0153076326646486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668164348882
120
zzq
1668164210258
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fzzq%2FofAkE9vayg.58?alt=media&token=311ebe1e-02d0-480a-8ed4-110944601955
4
0
4
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486236}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562312}]
["israeli-politics", "politics-default"]
0.5
1668164210099
1667437404683
0.27028281789628916
0.5000000000000001
4A0mYndjOgEJN6l5BpDb
{"NO": 89.27516438537143, "YES": 112.01323535886527}
0.6
if-i-zenbu-once-will-they-be-stern
165
If I @zenbu once will they be stern about it?
1655919000289
pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1
cpmm-1
0
2.7790203683486325
True
play
MKT
public
1655906848174
Cedar
https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/989167419308269599 I want the Member role. I have been here for a while. According to other people rolebots have been broken for a while. Will the mods be mad if I @ them and ask them for the role?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.491815146185216, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655919000289
100
Cedar
1655992778799
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c
4
0
0.5
1655918786815
1655992777704
0.6
0.500000000000083
FF6TrCdQIU4OlcZSnyYi
{"NO": 12626.052344723155, "YES": 0.7920131904229493}
1
will-the-comments-on-this-market-re
12911.190757385864
Will the comments on this market receive a total of at least 30 tips?
1656370439820
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.309082689302613
True
play
YES
public
1655907191107
Jack
Resolves YES if the total number of tips on comments in this market is at least 30.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.646441354989914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656370439820
100
jack
1656373305174
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
11
0
0.5
1656370433932
1656373303396
0.9706346439533772
pcKOlWHRxmSl0jzzKavY
what-will-be-russias-highest-profil
204.73135270459923
What will be Russia's highest profile response to the Kaliningrad embargo?
1658559540000
z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.77847206278785
True
play
f59fdaa2803f
public
1655907895848
TANSTAAFL
Context: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscows-response-lithuania-over-transit-ban-wont-be-only-diplomatic-official-2022-06-22/ Jun 26, 1:27pm: Useful link for followup: https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NoRUtEd2pDbnBPOEJSSGdyc3liREZBcGlTZ0FQAQ
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 9.880000000000003, "platformFee": 2.4700000000000006, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658584503519
419.99999999999994
TANSTAAFL
1658585249358
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "125154b158f1", "prob": 0.1264029911162605, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.670800627569454, "userId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.280861562713966, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pcKOlWHRxmSl0jzzKavY", "createdTime": 1655907895937, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421364}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224581}]
["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1658356310738
1658585248007
False
{"f59fdaa2803f": 100}
True
0.5000000000000003
xx9M9uAHd1iCgKncuagf
{"NO": 45.1543647779403, "YES": 221.46253300600938}
0
will-i-regret-letting-a-new-coworke
536.0446358608156
Will I regret letting a new coworker stay in my apartment for 3 weeks while I'm away?
1661918340000
Y005WvA8t7WG4cZBds7rHzyiOdT2
cpmm-1
0
3.0806767753081337
True
play
NO
public
1655908371448
Nika
I've met her once during interviews, she seemed fine, we're hiring her as a postdoc so she's probably a reasonable person. She needed a place to stay for a while before her long-term lease starts, and it happened to be while I was going to be away on vacation so I said she could stay in my apartment (and am only chargi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.392041242446734, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661958677571
100
Nika_from_Poland
1661881687847
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJytxK2m8ZrZgLBL3kjJjV5gFblgiShDZYKj6Glt=s96-c
0
22
0
1
24
[{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1670450014847}]
["personal-decision-in-hindsight"]
0.5
1661881686514
1657401198007
0.16936047622356903
0.4355278092945678
8RQqFEgpqsMp8l6G80EQ
{"NO": 140.0456360904815, "YES": 241.60404428500058}
0.3090286580601755
will-most-cucumbers-in-canada-be-pr
74.30100038299142
Will most cucumbers in Canada be produced without being wrapped in plastics by the end of 2026?
1782791940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655908799041
Stochastic Cockatoo
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/plastic-wrap-cucumbers-1.6496801
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
180
StochasticParrot
1685026225755
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
5
0
3
[{"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1668527441926}]
["canada"]
0.5
1685026225572
1674768278151
0.24350466996708453
tJ1XvE8cdWjoFX21u4Zh
{"NO": 37.37201472702145, "YES": 11331.176227146068}
0
will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-336bcbd2aee7
11551.463008295785
Will total crypto market cap be above 1T on years end, according to coinmarketcap?
1672578774992
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
0
3.6461938842079262
True
play
NO
public
1655913464250
Tim P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.261338856853962, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672578774992
200
TimP
1672578436114
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
16
0
1
17
[{"name": "U.S. vs Ethereum", "slug": "us-vs-ethereum", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "e9AtIDNUyYnrU0Jhjpk2", "createdTime": 1661034008612}]
["us-vs-ethereum"]
0.5
1672578435967
1657852837126
0
B4TFJCPQVGTtnhwGn1d8
which-answer-will-get-the-most-tips
125.26849325121482
Which answer will get the most tips?
1656565140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.8587646624215415
True
play
63ebea176402
public
1655915166195
Jack
Resolves to the answer whose first comment has the most number of tips. Note that only the first comment counts. This counts number of tips, not M$ tipped. The counting will be done at some time shortly after market close, but I can't guarantee any specific timeframe. Note that tips can still be added/removed after ma...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.445890793162922, "platformFee": 1.3614726982907306, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656598505888
420
jack
1656565116074
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "b1f15143f8a1", "prob": 0.30614858846134596, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.6917143948505, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.16183584972061, "textFts": "", "contractId": "B4TFJCPQVGTtnhwGn1d8", "createdTime": 1655915166268, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
1
1656565114788
1656561711150
{"63ebea176402": 100}
True
0.5000000000000023
zhXNArwHd5pGzLiLL8Ts
{"NO": 1210.8932595460526, "YES": 8.258366227712777}
1
will-this-group-be-used-before-mexi
1165.016879862182
Will this group be used before Mexifold is over?
1656005408707
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
0
5.30528867885332
True
play
YES
public
1655916626328
Ian Philips
Jun 22, 11:50am: If more than 10 markets are added to this group I will resolves YES. Otherwise NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.089860591765557, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656005408707
100
ian
1655933365813
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
5
0
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529436196}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1655933365646
0.9932261368864013
0.5000000000000003
b5KzJium2zPpMgVj20wV
{"NO": 2.5376429209022096, "YES": 3940.664747444159}
0
will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-93cd8c51c41a
5730.025891196498
Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $725 on June 22, 2022?
1655924400000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
5.343424411084693
True
play
NO
public
1655917243324
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.6733697114215462, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655928106085
100
Predictor
1655924385112
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
3
0
1
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425544}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571980}]
["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]
0.5
1655924383829
0.0006435487377221026
0.5000000000000003
lHFfqj1tZiAXDQfCHC23
{"NO": 405.73898802327875, "YES": 24.646386704711375}
1
will-i-finish-at-least-one-v3-bould
415
Will I finish at least one V3 bouldering climb before Mexifold is over?
1656553146166
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
0
3.6823223045982596
True
play
YES
public
1655917289799
James
I've climbed once before Mexifold, and twice since coming to Mexico City. I've barely been able to climb a couple V2s so far.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.022002335950681, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656553146166
100
JamesGrugett
1656623719639
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
7
0
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435612}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1656548699281
1656623718171
0.7135214035395553
0.544257484785964
NdgGU9lPyK2X5kgNh3fK
{"NO": 188.13728922468775, "YES": 79.47520651791073}
0.7386997303295246
will-the-number-of-un-member-states
71.34791218392456
Will the number of U.N. member states change this decade?
1909115940000
FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655917636721
Scott Lawrence
At the end of June 2030, how many member states will the UN have? As I write this, there are 193: will this number change? See also here: https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-the-un-have-more-or-less-than
BINARY
{"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.8627107753122623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
ScottLawrence
1680534402818
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575
4
0
4
0.5
1680534402617
0.5
bd92OqjHFi4NzJYjSqej
{"NO": 125.7664854545479, "YES": 79.51243897655075}
1
will-being-at-mexifold-cause-me-to
40
Will being at Mexifold cause me to update a non-trivial belief in a significant way?
1656651540000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
2.7988106927417165
True
play
YES
public
1655918103432
SneakySly
Will resolve YES if someone in the group (or an experience) causes a meaningful update to one of my non-trivial beliefs. Otherwise resolves NO after closing.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.647492549052651, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656655488964
100
SneakySly
1656189507342
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
3
0
1
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435307}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1656189506093
1655993541489
0.6126614595389752
0.5695578675557034
cWV69FSQ7uWczhvxPTGd
{"NO": 428.2327957080937, "YES": 683.126515260265}
0.4533942788229716
will-any-transfer-learning-model-tr
248.43027334412855
Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?
1767243600000
acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655918701090
Vincent Luczkow
- Median human learning curve will be based on whatever the best available data for the human learning curve at the time is. If there is no good data available the question resolves N/A
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.8662287874034322, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
560
vluzko
1717268736715
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776
7
0
4
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1658529440615}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664598746347}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-ma...
["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1717268733483
1664721362616
0.49999999999999484
t27E7rYdsJV1pUDAe106
{"NO": 1994.736808961954, "YES": 5.01319269543319}
1
will-manifold-add-limit-orders
1898.8134591187033
Will Manifold add limit orders?
1657491454671
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
5.391136426714885
True
play
YES
public
1655918936183
Gigacasting
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.0766501567492, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1657491454671
100
Gigacasting
1657489304253
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
6
0
0.5
1657488883757
1657489300879
0.9974930902906471
0.47752591228665936
eDfZIiK1uNVTf6Hz5uam
{"NO": 28.858846011956416, "YES": 375.00662228103295}
0
will-the-number-of-traders-on-this
451.03681056102164
Will the number of traders on this market be prime?
1656561540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
3.5858786996652006
True
play
NO
public
1655919802853
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.91360274272719, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656564659934
102.9393445735832
LivInTheLookingGlass
1656561472475
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
15
0
1
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492229}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 16604...
["olivia", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1656561472349
1655958310325
0.0657131727292056
0.5000000000000002
eW0zITS90H2t8bJAnsKw
{"NO": 46.145174483604535, "YES": 216.70738299089146}
0
will-there-be-more-than-50-groups-m
120
Will there be more than 50 groups made by the end of June?
1656651540000
AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1
cpmm-1
0
3.064476734005989
True
play
NO
public
1655919945387
David
I will only count 3 groups created per user so people don't spam make groups for the purpose of manipulating this market.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.292617009108526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659459241955
100
Salty
1656651178821
0
https://firebasestorage.…c05-2269bb61ea2b
3
0
1
[]
[]
0.5
1656651177453
1655959146774
0.17555535668730152
PudHjmDFs9AOBhdkWXYZ
who-will-wear-the-yellow-jersey-fir
39.66333078418488
Who will wear the yellow jersey first in the 2022 Tour de France?
1656689195250
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.999708583291761
True
play
09234afa0003
public
1655920155586
JAAM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France Who will win the first stage of the 2022 Tour de France? Jul 1, 12:08pm: I resolved this too soon! Sorry, it should have gone to no rider in the answers because Yves Lampaert is currently leading. The TV transmission ended and I thought that there were no more riders ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.405946848182384, "platformFee": 1.101486712045596, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656689195250
380
egroj
1656688953430
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "b1684644b95c", "prob": 0.8876898477544988, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.29077643755531, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.579337329228989, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PudHjmDFs9AOBhdkWXYZ", "createdTime": 1655920155651, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401788}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1658529410304}]
["road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default"]
1656688952093
{"09234afa0003": 100}
True
0.5
1ntsdyzutCZguBqb60eL
{"NO": 83.93779281131427, "YES": 119.13584650098238}
0
will-the-father-of-my-friends-baby
20
Will the father of my friend’s baby pass out during the birth?
1655927450061
QBnj7MaZCbf81ildFCqTwE08Eyv2
cpmm-1
0
2.787898174175946
True
play
NO
public
1655921344837
Em
He is squeamish seeing the blood of people /creatures he cares about and passed out during his first child’s delivery. Will resolve YES when/if he passes out any time during delivery. Jun 22, 2:09pm: Look to other prediction on page for details on her ongoing labor today. Close date updated to 2022-06-24 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8641534990176196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655927450061
100
ES221712
1655923268832
0
https://firebasestorage.…dd1-ddfb68630def
1
0
0.5
1655923267697
0.413336724035514
0.5000000000000002
1SCyXf63D8DUeZgGYp9m
{"NO": 368.251462117006, "YES": 108.62142887375873}
1
will-the-sale-of-juul-products-with
280
Will the sale of JUUL products within the US be banned by end of 2022?
1656085217181
PqkwVSxsduVzu6vfEclKspi3LH22
cpmm-1
0
1.7857839902616615
True
play
YES
public
1655921964516
Ronny Fernandez
This question resolves to yes if the FDA bans the sale of JUUL by end of 2022. Jun 23, 7:55am: Original report: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-bans-juul-e-cigarettes-11655994991
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.441094924502831, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656085217181
200
RonnyFernandez
1668452711364
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwwChwkFiNDFXDl5ugXBwLCN0Nn0vbe1YyRnLpQ=s96-c
7
0
1
0.5
1656061111952
1668452709235
0.7722214222576508
0.4947590249036075
p591kGADgadgDuqL4Wl9
{"NO": 113.90646079278984, "YES": 126.4889456548214}
0.4686058550815111
will-the-crossover-point-between-so
36.588312672169714
Will the crossover point between South Korean and Israeli births happen this decade?
1798865940000
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655922333383
Enopoletus Harding
This question resolves to Yes if Israeli births surpass South Korean ones this decade, no if otherwise. It is believed we are three years or less from Tajik births surpassing South Korean ones.
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.819672131147541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
EnopoletusHarding
1683600461739
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
3
0
5
[{"name": "Harding's national questions", "slug": "hardings-national-questions", "groupId": "1VFeQWsYuY13IFQ6J55S", "createdTime": 1658529389867}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736856094}, {"name": "...
["hardings-national-questions", "ancient-markets", "asia"]
0.5
1683600461637
1655936917486
0.2460955070108117
qhasrcJmCEkz4lHVZLXl
{"NO": 146.1617761703655, "YES": 1008.906651335397}
0
will-china-authorize-banking-operat
932.1309900553515
Will China authorize banking operations using virtual currencies again by the end of 2022?
1672549140000
wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2
cpmm-1
0
2.147923946548447
True
play
NO
public
1655927188979
Trent Yazzo
In June of 2021 the People’s Bank of China issued guidelines to the country’s major financial institutions restricting the supply of services, products, and transactions linked to virtual currencies. The authorities are identifying and restricting the activities of cryptocurrencies exchanges and over-the-counter operat...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.000480925804226, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672601914768
260
kazoo
1672545102456
0
https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f
18
0
1
19
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421515}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561309}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 16585295...
["china", "economics-default", "world-default"]
0.5
1672545102330
0.05
0.5062800234170198
kKuhX8dSVFZtTLIhU7iI
{"NO": 337.1815508704086, "YES": 267.67247812902747}
1
conditional-on-not-taking-radvac-wi
62
Conditional on NOT taking RaDVaC, will I get COVID in 2022?
1660793299121
Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23
cpmm-1
0
1.1559427095553594
True
play
YES
public
1655927458010
William Ehlhardt
https://radvac.org/ has published a recipe for a DIY COVID-19 vaccine, which has been intermittently updated as new strains emerge. I'm trying to estimate whether it would be worth taking. If I DO NOT take RaDVaC by 1 August 2022, this will be resolved the same way as https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-ge...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.739205949618337, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660793299121
300
WilliamEhlhardt
1656082684831
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c
3
0
0.5
1656082683615
0.5636475336623277
0.5000000000000001
IZspN0cga6zSYQLZOuDS
{"NO": 87.46564633958977, "YES": 114.33060199629114}
0
will-i-fix-my-sleepawake-schedule-t
15
Will I fix my sleep/awake schedule this week?
1656440738550
qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2
cpmm-1
0
2.7815498584119966
True
play
NO
public
1655929495990
1
Resolves to "Yes" if I feel like it's been fixed [meaning something like 'I naturally want to be awake during 'normal people hours, and I am ending the week on a ≥ 2 consecutive day streak of actually succeeding in doing so']. For the last week or so, I've been doing the bulk of my sleeping mid-day, and staying up mo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6693980037088574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656440738550
100
1
1655949264908
0
https://firebasestorage.…9c4-8e38bdaf1476
2
0
0.5
1655949264769
1655938378285
0.4334354432298816
0.5000000000000001
jKa5t5bKdoc9ioWkkYa8
{"NO": 34.685768352978386, "YES": 581.3335254621358}
0
will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-7e81a725f44c
1263.9902886909188
Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $710 on June 23, 2022?
1656010800000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
3.030684505763505
True
play
NO
public
1655931319986
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.964638909240708, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656014458314
142
Predictor
1656010398780
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
8
0
1
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425832}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574134}]
["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]
0.5
1656010397541
1656006921389
0.0563063019311675
0.5000000000000001
uYY4wXxaXG76hd4lhvNf
{"NO": 122.75917269630249, "YES": 81.46030785609231}
1
will-i-eat-pizza-this-upcoming-frid
52
Will I eat pizza this upcoming Friday?
1656129540000
Hn0maAvapcPK2o995ikbY8SmBip2
cpmm-1
0
2.7935756263001865
True
play
YES
public
1655935242038
Tianna Wheeler
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.3343227293544957, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660875406281
100
TiannaWheeler
1660874929448
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzH3PQrrL3tkhmxAR3LefWiyDYVGt3Ivyv_533L=s96-c
6
0
1
0.5
1656078281142
1660874929092
0.6011139209846695
pBZ6UdMNfQtZMIaVjgX6
what-new-features-will-groups-have
114.31690578399031
What new features will groups have by the end of July?
1659329940000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.8285270804690255
True
play
MKT
public
1655936913945
Ian Philips
I will resolve evenly split between all features that are implemented by close date
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.947323768640387, "platformFee": 1.2368309421600967, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659362402807
600
ian
1659313112046
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "0557537cf492", "prob": 0.22734330975504358, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.421229254209605, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.019309569478374, "textFts": "", "contractId": "pBZ6UdMNfQtZMIaVjgX6", "createdTime": 1655936914213, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
[{"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1658529558994}]
["groups-suggestions"]
1659313111881
1658529942567
{"0a5857e06551": 14.285714285714286, "282b11516d74": 14.285714285714286, "43711f19d234": 14.285714285714286, "526579b2fe9a": 14.285714285714286, "5d80cf43383b": 14.285714285714286, "814226f5621e": 14.285714285714286, "9218ad959e3b": 14.285714285714286}
True
0.5
L6VISvLdcvzVGO1Xg8yK
{"NO": 109.5475113122172, "YES": 91.28459314332922}
1
will-sir-salty-ever-gank-bot
10
Will Sir Salty ever gank bot?
1655942400000
A24SHY1PMBVZQ5CsZdKfAZhZ3172
cpmm-1
0
2.7767449230232932
True
play
YES
public
1655938644255
Ilayca Kalkandelen
It only counts when he does damage to an enemy bot laner.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.45248868778280543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701645480305
100
IlaycaKalkandelen
1701645311498
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzzxGDAfTb8I4aI-x_kz-m_av17vKIPx3doVBvJ=s96-c
1
0
1
2
[{"name": "twitch.tv/SirSalty", "slug": "twitchtvsirsalty", "groupId": "8YFoDuyqVTUHgdthlW3O", "createdTime": 1658529426368}]
["twitchtvsirsalty"]
0.5
1655938675583
1701645310818
0.55
tj310qASk5ypsipAeiXC
how-many-horse-power-will-a-factory
100
How many horse power will a factory 2023 Civic type R touring have?
1658609940000
A24SHY1PMBVZQ5CsZdKfAZhZ3172
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
CANCEL
public
1655939552847
Ilayca Kalkandelen
An average of results from a few reputable tuners.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701498757055
240
IlaycaKalkandelen
1701498754134
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzzxGDAfTb8I4aI-x_kz-m_av17vKIPx3doVBvJ=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "64cde14ceca9", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "A24SHY1PMBVZQ5CsZdKfAZhZ3172", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413264, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tj310qASk5ypsipAeiXC", "createdTime": 1655939553075, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "...
1
1
[{"name": "Honda Enthusiasts", "slug": "honda-enthusiasts", "groupId": "0WMzmYMgWSkcp6XbPTDp", "createdTime": 1658529389577}]
["honda-enthusiasts"]
1655939693234
1701498753620
True
0.5000000000000001
YDEterQ9tLex8vgOQKep
{"NO": 33.376963228108224, "YES": 299.6078442384641}
0
will-the-creator-earnings-for-this-b2c3b6800d38
470.1084837733955
Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$500?
1656590400000
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
cpmm-1
0
3.346645467912901
True
play
NO
public
1655940125893
Matt P
Resolves to YES if the displayed "creator earnings" in the market info screen are higher than M$500 after market close. SneakySly's M$200 market has a pretty high probability right now, suggesting the market as a whole views that target as fairly easy to hit. My own M$300 market current has an even higher probability....
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 11.941513657502218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656939248995
100
MattP
1656588524783
0
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
6
0
1
0.5
1656588523262
1655940652655
0.10023569388059507
qLdXW9kFohQrczlySgNU
which-american-company-will-i-most
81
Which American company will I most agree is worth boycotting?
1657393140000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.858444736662643
True
play
0ca953420e3e
public
1655942534178
Duncn
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.2, "platformFee": 1.8, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1657462349946
580
Duncn
1657462337949
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "a6775d7a97a5", "prob": 0.3052409877598364, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.45018847762724, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.16617399392737, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qLdXW9kFohQrczlySgNU", "createdTime": 1655942534284, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
1
1657385146474
1657462333255
{"0ca953420e3e": 100}
True
0.49999999999999784
GjKrwkHL9Exzr5NvPOuS
{"NO": 1099.1803278688526, "YES": 9.097688292319049}
1
will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-07f45aecdf5d
1000
Will I resolve this question "YES?"
1655942658701
XnEIFUSPKGP6DYR8Nb5RBUB9f9A3
cpmm-1
0
5.142593748050627
True
play
YES
public
1655942651033
Hugh Mann
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8196721311475308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655942658701
100
unit_24601
1655942657039
0
https://firebasestorage.…6c5-6c9add466de4
1
0
0.5
1655942655810
0.5
0.49999999999999784
HalQYwXNXYTUqaz3X86R
{"NO": 1099.1803278688526, "YES": 9.097688292319049}
1
will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-6816f234c8f5
1000
Will I resolve this question "YES?"
1655942677108
2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2
cpmm-1
0
5.142593748050627
True
play
YES
public
1655942668675
Law of Good Hearts
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8196721311475308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655942677108
100
PeterBerggrenf455
1655942677728
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c
1
0
0.5
1655942673799
0.5
0.4999999999999993
C364KjpmtN91I77NqiEE
{"NO": 899.0243902439024, "YES": 11.123168746608826}
1
will-i-resolve-this-question-yes-d11ac742751b
800
Will I resolve this question "YES?"
1655942693977
sJ3NxCvYHaePoXzXKQvhnAGDwBs2
cpmm-1
0
4.814156071021122
True
play
YES
public
1655942685330
Say Jarva
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.9756097560975618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655942693977
100
SayJarva
1655942692189
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtMaz-NQzPe2EoUEAXVe0fSCIHjSdzwKASObZv=s96-c
1
0
0.5
1655942690885
0.5
EC1tl9ILj3sjx6IAI8es
whats-the-luckiest-single-digit-int
259.1530578200501
What's the luckiest single digit integer?
1658548740000
K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.757264958423869
True
play
b8c92f61888d
public
1655943232533
Eli Gaultney
Pretty self-explanatory; I'll resolve to the single digit integer with the highest ranking. By "integer" I mean the following options only: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. May your lucky number with you!
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.319999999999999, "platformFee": 1.0799999999999998, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658596635641
500
EliGaultney
1658548718514
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "d613baf33a75", "prob": 0.09360760795722183, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.4065704646808954, "userId": "K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.302562769240488, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EC1tl9ILj3sjx6IAI8es", "createdTime": 1655943232645, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
1658548714642
1657235083653
{"b8c92f61888d": 100}
True
0.4296790966096055
g0bgAuS6Z19DfQrbT8cq
{"NO": 909.5350949480213, "YES": 1126.7965204157083}
0.37816106456216453
will-most-of-the-first-100-iqselect
501.83900416215903
Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?
10413809940000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
9.776145513409421
False
basic
public
1655946829973
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.0005767360446333747, "month": 0.0005767360446333747}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.709067025723396, "platformFee": 0.19916868141213157, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MetaculusBot
1720058797506
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
24
1
12
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983082}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659851505526}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "me...
["china", "metaculus", "asia"]
0.5
1720058794251
1715132688133
0.4600208686897157
rFKOLe7Z4jESUAtTfvOy
{"NO": 147.8247112250762, "YES": 173.39133025397317}
0.420728751705206
will-the-usa-be-one-of-the-first-te
87.64977827499372
Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
10413809940000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1655946963190
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.420118652239974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
160
MetaculusBot
1710252345493
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
9
0
4
[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371021}]
["metaculus"]
0.5
1710252342118
1708284239702
0.7554821878902818
gJpCxXKGfU2wY6G4yPNV
{"NO": 1090.1054974424185, "YES": 952.5692033566891}
0.7795309457685164
will-israel-be-one-of-the-first-ten
134.00510997112343
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
10413809940000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
1.0773671430363267e-15
9.62283046169332
False
basic
public
1655947035387
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524/israeli-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-15, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-15, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-15}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.590208881624745, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MetaculusBot
1687516544809
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
10
0
7
[{"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670787864690}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374370473}]
["israel", "metaculus"]
0.09239844870150718
0.5
1687516544668
0.6248250870488568
WJBuT4bP2gbtqrT1G9iN
{"NO": 981.2809899664398, "YES": 1001.6360814379309}
0.6200000000000003
will-china-be-one-of-the-first-ten
260.7112129484586
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
10413809940000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
0
9.640735790793272
False
basic
public
1655947084400
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9533/china-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.0979897614647602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MetaculusBot
1709914221614
0
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
5
17
0
12
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560955}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371017}]
["china", "metaculus"]
0.09646451071306486
0.5
1709914221614
0.6656365796693076
oqf9My5ZgP4pRlvrLFl1
{"NO": 1037.5342184237784, "YES": 971.9902659608543}
0.6799999999999998
will-singapore-be-one-of-the-first
220.5579886830249
Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
10413809940000
jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52
cpmm-1
3.078191837246648e-16
9.593212170070583
False
basic
public
1655947125827
Metaculus Bot
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9525/singapore-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/
BINARY
{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.3157504885818785, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
MetaculusBot
1703266504434
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6
11
0
4
[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371470}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1686160432452}]
["metaculus", "asia"]
0.08949409130914984
0.5
1703266504327
0.5000000000000107
7JSr0olpO1vGkTqLlN0K
{"NO": 733.3808798121202, "YES": 13.635479564945822}
0.9817467457120808
test-b2409befbe3
640
test
1656004904088
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
4.496292363996375
True
play
CANCEL
public
1655947579494
Bionic
This will resolve to NA I'll tip ~M$100 to whoever wants to help with tests Jun 23, 2:06am: updated to M$330 because Adrian was super helpful :)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656004904088
100
BionicD0LPH1N
1655992873552
0
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
3
0
0.5
1655992872277
1655950241560
0.9817467457120808
vsUzKIesuibOb8NzSgVn
how-will-i-survive-the-night
68
How will I survive the night?
1656050353843
qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.874970781584488
True
play
MKT
public
1655948329918
Alice
(Don't worry! It's a warm night and I'm not in a survival situation.) I'm camping in the forest with a Tarptent Stratospire Li. It's an ultralight tent that cuts weight by replacing the tent poles with trekking poles. Unfortunately I don't have my trekking poles, which makes my Tarptent ... a tarp. So I'll have to m...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.759999999999998, "platformFee": 1.4399999999999995, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656050353843
599.9999999999999
Alice
1656051068077
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2c75e79b9adb", "prob": 0.3543083900226757, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.57394085197142, "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.84914980863272, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vsUzKIesuibOb8NzSgVn", "createdTime": 1655948330032, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
[{"name": "Outdoors", "slug": "outdoors", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "nXJagFYl8Vj4j6Z0ilYc", "createdTime": 1659511830732}]
["outdoors"]
1656024909171
1656051064792
{"109e422a4506": 30.969916693733158, "417358a2dcd3": 10.32330556457772, "6983ac4bcd09": 1.6898268037255195, "6c3f6ffbfb6e": 2.0646611129155437, "887fba10817e": 10.32330556457772, "986283589571": 41.29322225831088, "b42432fa5169": 1.6605657335311381, "f8413c1a2c59": 1.6751962686283288}
True
0.4999999999999959
IcKVn5ej0rlLRlsOUYsk
{"NO": 1816.0593364107483, "YES": 5.506428011192611}
1
will-the-west-seattle-bridge-reopen
1887.7604774110807
Will the West Seattle Bridge reopen in 2022?
1663507743246
HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2
cpmm-1
0
5.4005082129004105
True
play
YES
public
1655948659453
Ben
Context: The West Seattle bridge closed in 2020, but is slated to reopen in September 2022. https://www.seattle.gov/transportation/projects-and-programs/programs/bridges-stairs-and-other-structures/bridges/west-seattle-bridge-program/west-seattle-bridge-repair Resolves YES if the West Seattle Bridge is reopened to tra...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.192252857937813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663507743246
100
bcongdon
1663507732054
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c
6
0
6
[{"name": "Seattle", "slug": "seattle", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "6PG7rSSarK58uc0JM6oW", "createdTime": 1663335967710}]
["seattle"]
0.5
1663507730731
1663507717767
0.9852060685299219
0.5000000000000001
IqIZkrweWXWNTGKk435Q
{"NO": 61.36792087718178, "YES": 162.95158540589006}
0
do-goats-make-good-pets
110.9443628253747
Do goats make good pets?
1658552340000
pJ8fFq3DkhXfExya3CubpHAWsFH3
cpmm-1
0
2.8906330760402152
True
play
NO
public
1655949997712
samanddeanus
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.8345335024765013, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658595875178
100
samanddeanus
1658260617161
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx8OTyCzT9dgOz9iWtadrZ8DSgPX4fOI6jiIBI4=s96-c
11
0
1
0.5
1658260610175
1658259137171
0.2735737158753407
ypUrs44ljLIArVcWrZt5
what-will-tonights-0622-mexifold-di
1147
What will tonight's (06/22) Mexifold dinner bill be?
1655995498625
k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.654418304255629
True
play
aab538070899
public
1655952083956
d6e
There were 16 people eating at El Jardín de Anatolia. Everyone are family style including dessert. What will the final bill be? https://goo.gl/maps/yRQ1BdaRuvN23z2x6
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 9.680000000000007, "platformFee": 2.4200000000000017, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655995498625
520
d6e
1655996889906
0
https://firebasestorage.…777-39eccbf03181
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1a4e973a9cfb", "prob": 0.006430830946959149, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04368905682160413, "userId": "k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.749998599088977, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ypUrs44ljLIArVcWrZt5", "createdTime": 1655952084081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529436037}]
["mexifolk"]
1655995394247
1655996886786
{"aab538070899": 100}
True
z55aahQXxLvSCM93uZ3H
what-are-some-ways-to-lookfeel-more
144.71147486752366
What are some ways to look/feel more feminine?
1658635140000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.816774997450998
True
play
MKT
public
1655960471964
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
The top 10 answers will be accepted, and given a score such that the highest effort:reward ratio will get 1 point, and each successive one will get n^2.5 points. Python code to construct table: def points(n=1,p=2): totals = [x**p for x in range(1, n+1)] s = sum(totals) return tuple(map(lambda x: x/s, total...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.44933990060591, "platformFee": 1.3623349751514775, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658716558791
779.9999999999998
LivInTheLookingGlass
1658772157833
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
0
14
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "728a00dfb035", "prob": 0.2005705612470317, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.133595116065064, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.447139553718568, "textFts": "", "contractId": "z55aahQXxLvSCM93uZ3H", "createdTime": 1655960472216, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529550224}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073381189}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k1...
["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"]
1658618641620
1658772154861
{"12deb7cd0164": 2.994609702535436, "19ebe955d122": 1.4573767219005789, "338f77b048e0": 0.21960471151926533, "44146bf31d81": 5.260531044120583, "486f43175d24": 0.5290477141145937, "59715e0fd35e": 22.70912357756039, "5b1a3dae9c6b": 16.919544819325214, "b2da2c582523": 12.118187262926732, "d5e628db5262": 29.54681573168297...
True
0.12601406834234513
vmfyo2hhXN1KIrwJvOPz
{"NO": 151.99609930262176, "YES": 897.7219547743897}
0
will-tesla-support-fully-autonomous
1097.6942584527812
Will Tesla support fully autonomous driving by the end of 2022?
1672559940000
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
cpmm-1
0
4.132765128467835
True
play
NO
public
1655969237977
Adrian
Will customer Tesla cars be able to drive with nobody in the car by the end of 2022? Meaning Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy. Elon estimated in January 2021 that they would be at Level 5 by the end of 2021.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.583786772828872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672576233108
240
ahalekelly
1710451959049
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
20
0
1
19
[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5"}]
["ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "selfdriving-vehicles"]
0.5
1672558243998
0.02
0.5000000000000027
m3M2lRj2QmJ5F3NYnqaQ
{"NO": 3656.7342279373884, "YES": 2.7346805582969864}
1
g-def3e8bbc78c
3557
g
1655974842177
MwvBjRcNEic2PLGLB4RXOPCvniG3
cpmm-1
0
5.3472639486234605
True
play
YES
public
1655974823386
Electricitypipe
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.26577206261159053, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1655974842177
100
Electricitypipe
1655974839282
0
https://firebasestorage.…999-12b427b0be35
1
0
0.5
1655974835072
0.5
0.2529439631835416
EdiKpe9Yg6mr1pOxAFzS
{"NO": 1650.9314411824203, "YES": 12.908374359141987}
1
will-anyone-at-mexifold-learn-more
1696.0256947127518
Will anyone at Mexifold learn more than 20 words of Mini?
1656466421539
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0
3.1354907834838377
True
play
YES
public
1655995689542
SG
https://minilanguage.com/ Jun 28, 8:33pm: @SneakySly has passed my test!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.547914609878408, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656466421539
500
SG
1656455356653
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
5
0
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434421}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1656455355058
1656009656767
0.977428705690826
0.49999999999998856
1uuiQqYCyORZaM38ok3i
{"NO": 3361.52229889462, "YES": 2.974842678654511}
1
will-the-lwcw-2022-be-in-person
3265
Will the LWCW 2022 be in person?
1661793797610
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
0
5.351933877865052
True
play
YES
public
1655999951459
Tim P
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.4777011053804823, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661793797610
100
TimP
1661793785162
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
6
0
8
0.5
1661793783913
1656019206418
0.9867060287240491
0.5046116855472368
stggBwxp7kj2hq3UUJh3
{"NO": 120.18498912937866, "YES": 121.88301651295686}
1
will-the-liquidity-pool-of-this-mar
27
Will the liquidity pool of this market have more YES than NO shares?
1656651540000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
2.4091368740673316
True
play
YES
public
1656002403760
Jack
You can view the liquidity pool by clicking the three dots icon > Pool. Resolves YES if there are more YES than NO shares in the pool at market close, NO otherwise. (This is intended as a fun experiment in how people can manipulate the liquidity pool)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.3028931940609771, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656805540361
121.98747194323596
jack
1656805538157
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
5
0
1
0.5
1656400426525
1656805534634
0.5011044215757043
0.4004952838857042
gNFcrGDke9gA2UO1VszO
{"NO": 96.56170013802665, "YES": 670.1847656967623}
0
will-julian-assange-spend-spend-ove
979.2168986173357
Will Julian Assange spend spend over three days in solitary confinement before 2024?
1704153540000
MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2
cpmm-1
0
2.0067744195666384
True
play
NO
public
1656003248215
Jonathan Nankivell
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.124011044982737, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705084653482
240
JonathanNankivell
1705084653749
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c
0
12
0
15
5
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736856608}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139635599}]
["ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.09021317215633173
0.5
1702967984008
1705084650000
0.09
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.5000000000000001
KWR3d5ro0OhEMaWK8Hex
{"NO": 65.2360438254092, "YES": 153.28949172274963}
0.6
during-mexifold-will-someone-change
55
During Mexifold, will someone change my mind on a strongly-held opinion/belief?
1656651540000
xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
0
2.863135437842931
True
play
MKT
public
1656003354113
Gavriel
This is based on SneakySly’s market (https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-being-at-mexifold-cause-me-to) with the important difference that the belief needs to be strongly held, but NOT non-trivial. It resolves YES if someone convinces me to change an important political/philosophical belief, but also if someone con...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.7105082772503768, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656882502020
100
GavrielK
1656882572120
0
https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476
2
0
1
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434802}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1656374425490
1656882569404
0.6
0.49049914706539965
8OON9J5ZE36q2E2WGJPY
{"NO": 70.74133709923309, "YES": 1345.2294153221412}
0
will-manifold-do-something-to-incen
2489.6877649314224
Will Manifold do something to incentivize participating in long term markets in the next 30 days?
1658645940000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
1.9371063648397082
True
play
NO
public
1656005978956
SneakySly
Resolves NO if at resolution nothing has been done to incentivize participating in long term markets.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 60.53286888833971, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658646638153
300
SneakySly
1658682759684
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
27
0
1
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658616135782}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1658601931565
1658682755513
0.04818615443317264
NtoQwmPp3NQYpMUfQTs7
what-will-tonights-0623-mexifold-di
65
What will tonight's (06/23) Mexifold dinner bill be?
1656041280000
k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.88194435917263
True
play
410082a15674
public
1656007119446
d6e
Answers are considered in USD and this market will be resolved when the bill arrives. Close date updated to 2022-06-23 10:28 pm
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.48, "platformFee": 1.12, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656041389775
499.9999999999999
d6e
1656041425655
0
https://firebasestorage.…777-39eccbf03181
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "7bed3f0d2d6a", "prob": 0.3763784862057285, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.493300743872076, "userId": "k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.29845000252165, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NtoQwmPp3NQYpMUfQTs7", "createdTime": 1656007119540, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435028}]
["mexifolk"]
1656018075043
1656041419572
{"410082a15674": 100}
True
i1GOCssmDUqKO50gW2uH
which-projects-will-win-the-mexifol
757.1327773203294
Which projects will win the Mexifold Hackathon?
1656390780000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.677456300460606
True
play
MKT
public
1656008244269
Austin
Continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/which-projects-will-win-the-ea-baha: The Manifold team + friends will be hacking on fun projects on Friday~ Suggest projects in this market, and predict which project will take first place (as judged by me lol). We're planning on awarding Manifold dollars to projects tha...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 16.030922747047796, "platformFee": 4.007730686761949, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656718521574
1220
Austin
1656390649765
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
11
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1c91d35d3a37", "prob": 0.016569385548629974, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12044139315540726, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.14846986501529, "textFts": "", "contractId": "i1GOCssmDUqKO50gW2uH", "createdTime": 1656008244550, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435544}]
["mexifolk"]
1656390648430
1656389967104
{"220fad958226": 23.14814814814815, "250c1a943307": 8.333333333333334, "4c4734518b28": 23.14814814814815, "5b4f8ce0fe5f": 8.333333333333334, "bfd0789986d7": 37.03703703703704}
True
0.5000000000000004
XAIQxZChC8nTyPNsXPCA
{"NO": 11.019979259598566, "YES": 907.442724203845}
0
will-there-be-a-periodic-participat
1549.572367009189
Will there be a periodic participation bonus by mid July?
1657947540000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
4.829080498496791
True
play
NO
public
1656009049884
Jack
Resolves YES if there is any form of periodic M$ payout/subsidy to users for participation by 7/15. NO if not. Examples could be a daily login bonus, or a daily M$ amount that you can use on bets or creating markets. For it to count, the bonus must be available to all users (e.g. not just new users). Daily free market...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 22.645218174951385, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1657983584683
100
jack
1657983559648
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
20
0
1
[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586362}]
["free-markets"]
0.5
1657935889015
1657983559418
0.011998287157489568
0.5000000000000002
5aidYIUayPq6PryqATV2
{"NO": 74.01079437143787, "YES": 135.11542586359798}
0
will-the-daily-free-markets-come-ba
1275.07512331656
Will the daily free markets come back?
1658635140000
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-1
0
2.817707058754026
True
play
NO
public
1656009290154
Enopoletus Harding
By the close date.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 24.712645511423393, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663705964432
100
EnopoletusHarding
1663705977294
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
18
0
1
19
[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529585544}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663031608817}]
["free-markets", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1658635085791
1663705976476
0.3539049014908679
0.5000000000000002
zArKgrgilEfqLCP1vl0W
{"NO": 20.174534884669356, "YES": 495.67437649326}
0
will-the-costs-to-create-a-market-b
559.0497512226939
Will the costs to create a market be reduced by end of July?
1659329940000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
3.936597882153222
True
play
NO
public
1656009400093
Jack
Resolves YES if it is possible to create markets with an initial cost of less than M$100, otherwise NO. Daily free markets were just removed, but for the purpose of this question they don't count, only resolves YES if you can create multiple markets a day with less than M$100 cost each. If the initial cost is less th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.21486808627758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659337607051
100
jack
1658996966323
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
13
0
1
[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586671}]
["free-markets"]
0.5
1658996965051
1657125821703
0.03910938734130387
0.5000000000000001
IkNiVh2Hyzn9nlBU27NS
{"NO": 128.83391201281657, "YES": 77.6193150061699}
0.52
what-of-new-markets-will-be-created
154.54496877323717
What % of new markets will be created in the next month compared to the previous month?
1658638740000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
0
2.804597347391274
True
play
MKT
public
1656011311254
Ian Philips
Jun 23, 2:08pm: What is the % of markets impact to removing free daily markets? Jun 23, 2:09pm: conditional on free markets not returning Jun 29, 4:41pm: I'll soon be adding other ways to earn bonus M$ so I think I should probably resolve this market based on extrapolating the rate of market creation before the bonus...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.193799772517049, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660574772002
100
ian
1660083762359
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
10
0
1
[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529585974}]
["free-markets"]
0.5
1658598409721
1660083758077
0.52
0.5000000000000001
g3nLDkY8t2ZOGioL0Swc
{"NO": 86.79793120749702, "YES": 115.21011919159962}
0.46
how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne
444.9868797486659
How many markets will be created next week, with daily free markets just removed? (prob=count/300)
1656651540000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
2.782603856597629
True
play
MKT
public
1656011677169
Jack
Daily free markets were just removed. The number of markets created in the past week was 290 - see https://manifold.markets/stats > Market Stats > under "Markets created in the past..." If daily free markets continue not to exist for at least 5 of the next 7 days, what will be the number of markets created over the nex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.805477195090758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656805583887
100
jack
1657043871879
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
10
0
1
[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586436}]
["free-markets"]
0.5
1656631483195
1657043871334
0.46
0.8173007557283057
8yaKKCBQpQRo6vdprApn
{"NO": 781.4332491818082, "YES": 1017.9534072253293}
0.7744735615942273
will-there-be-any-new-ea-billionair
2167.074554266835
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
1798822800000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0.014420555707773269
9.73473558536773
False
basic
public
1656015087320
Bionic
As far as I know, there currently exist two billionaires who support Effective Altruism organizations (Dustin Moskovitz and Sam Bankman-Fried). Will there be any new EA billionaire funders in the next 5 years? Jun 23, 5:20pm: This question resolves positively only if there is no ambiguity, in that the said billionai...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05577442002386179}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.351526318642595, "platformFee": 0.48279188462392386, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
BionicD0LPH1N
1718660430008
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
2
38
0
25
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589553}, {"name": "Nathan's Dashboard", "slug": "nathans-dashboard", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "g4G6yDkp0vg1tQ6CLAoo", "createdTime": 1676569763288}, {"name": "EA Index", "sl...
["effective-altruism", "nathans-dashboard", "ea-index"]
0.12417409982857822
0.5
1718630545567
1718660428944
0iMjbYquzsYPk0VfTygk
how-much-of-your-net-worth-is-in-so
13
How much of your net worth is in Solana?
1656647940000
IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.98013067025711
True
play
CANCEL
public
1656015428428
GeorgeVii
Jun 23, 4:24pm: This is a poll.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656706580651
460.00000000000017
GeorgeVii
1656147350653
0
https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "544ca17d2467", "prob": 0.7831466833737959, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.220804194774132, "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.368140681532958, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0iMjbYquzsYPk0VfTygk", "createdTime": 1656015428706, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
1656020953405
1656147345545
True
rKcvviw5d2738J1XZRyH
what-earelated-questions-should-i-c
41
What EA-related questions should I create markets for?
1656734340000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.917708608378668
True
play
b8ead8b9be6a
public
1656016922538
Bionic
By July 1st, I will choose the best Effective Altruism-related questions from this market, and create markets for them. I will resolve with %, proportionally to the quality of the questions I end up choosing. The main criteria for the decision of which questions will get a larger share of the pie (not all of these as...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.800000000000002, "platformFee": 1.2000000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656788452700
320
BionicD0LPH1N
1656721704345
0
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6d7df931b32c", "prob": 0.502992807202857, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.99874602347468, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.16576094579533, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rKcvviw5d2738J1XZRyH", "createdTime": 1656016922783, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...
1
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590455}]
["effective-altruism"]
1656128328282
1656721699603
{"b8ead8b9be6a": 100}
True
0.2855447877951343
NYNVNpoSFbXqlZ8PMMsz
{"NO": 119.49565794251856, "YES": 2545.3269418899363}
0
in-2040-will-the-mars-perseverance
2790.4078943731774
In 2040, will the Mars Perseverance rover's pet rock have a good home?
1684087397626
4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1
cpmm-1
0
2.183383715655472
True
play
NO
public
1656017883367
James Babcock
The Mars rover Perseverance got a rock stuck in one of its wheels, which has stayed there as the rover explored the Martian surface. NASA wrote a semi-humorous blog post calling it a "pet rock" here: https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/mission/status/384/perseverance-has-a-pet-rock/ This market resolves positively if, on J...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.8197391476258327, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684087397626
320
JamesBabcock
1684087342133
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTH5k_W1_a-3n0Q0TpwHPtHcXItwv4WDjHESDoqQ=s96-c
18
0
14
[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529461690}]
["space"]
0.5
1684075763730
1684087339743
0.02
cZGEefcHO5aI6QyS6QWr
what-will-the-federal-funds-rate-be
5
What will the Federal Funds Rate be by the end of 2022?
1656018487811
PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.003055295544427
True
play
CANCEL
public
1656018232772
Oliver S
The fed board will meet four more times this year. The rate is currently 1.5-1.75%.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656018487811
240
OliverS
1656018473485
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "f9d86baa251c", "prob": 0.9070294784580499, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.69386925096977, "userId": "PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.143621598224398, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cZGEefcHO5aI6QyS6QWr", "createdTime": 1656018232982, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572204}]
["economics-default"]
1656018472270
True
uGuF4VspU7ig0yINaAQL
what-will-the-fed-funds-rate-be-by
1229.2149631866928
What will the Fed Funds Rate be by the end of 2022?
1670821140000
PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.655116728708089
True
play
771466e40b93
public
1656018575196
Oliver S
The current fed funds rate is 1.5-1.75%. The Fed has four scheduled meetings left in 2022. Inflation remains elevated.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.0019633339916856583, "platformFee": 0.0004908334979214146, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672160700422
1000.0000000000005
OliverS
1672170907483
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c
9
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "65fe139e77c2", "prob": 0.006666229422449151, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03177313534291812, "userId": "PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.734509770540746, "textFts": "", "contractId": "uGuF4VspU7ig0yINaAQL", "createdTime": 1656018575486, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
4
9
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576938}]
["economics-default"]
1670768994168
1672170905235
{"771466e40b93": 100}
True
KOLQ3vNJWwkowy7YfSHC
which-song-will-get-the-most-positi
160
Which song will get the most positive commentors?
1657396740000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.790701557021372
True
play
6622b15a575e
public
1656019221492
Duncn
Post a link to a song (or piece of music). The choice with the most users making a positive comments on it wins. In case of a tie, I will resolve to multiple. It'd he helpful if those making comments were clearly positive or negative.
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.880000000000002, "platformFee": 1.2200000000000004, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1657412041320
419.99999999999994
Duncn
1657396709735
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "a97b1a0eba90", "prob": 0.14792899408284024, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.987602141448295, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.48858833474218, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KOLQ3vNJWwkowy7YfSHC", "createdTime": 1656019221706, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543050}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659016187331}]
["culture-default", "recommendations"]
1657396709622
1657321564910
{"6622b15a575e": 100}
True
0.4147129947176048
B3Ga9jrtTjYqxTKEnSS1
{"NO": 119.66259253177215, "YES": 226.88469131584472}
0
tutbad-at-the-end-of-this-used-to-b
353.8209405386057
[TUTBAD] At the end of This Used To Be About Dungeons, will Isra/Verity be together?
1689736264612
9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2
cpmm-1
0
2.088576042068104
True
play
NO
public
1656025079587
extent_of_foxes
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this web serial ends: https://www.royalroad.com/fiction/45534/this-used-to-be-about-dungeons Will Isra/Verity be together?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 19, 3:36pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "[TUTBAD] ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.031581802940567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1689736264612
160
extent_of_foxes
1687086804665
0
https://firebasestorage.…318-f4ea213ccb90
17
0
15
[{"name": "This Used To Be About Markets", "slug": "this-used-to-be-about-markets", "groupId": "RqpmlE3BYQqVyRiNfvMv", "createdTime": 1658529460109}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529541980}]
["this-used-to-be-about-markets", "culture-default"]
0.5
1687086804311
1657832496655
0.27
0.5734761674723634
fMhODQSzDvyDnnPkeks1
{"NO": 250.57874685470256, "YES": 63.36913152842074}
1
tutbad-at-the-end-of-this-used-to-b-187496763f86
258.5134160732365
[TUTBAD] At the end of This Used To Be About Dungeons, will Hannah/Marsh be together?
1689736232501
9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2
cpmm-1
0
2.8059304380513357
True
play
YES
public
1656025183673
extent_of_foxes
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this web serial ends: https://www.royalroad.com/fiction/45534/this-used-to-be-about-dungeons Will Hannah/Marsh be together?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 19, 3:37pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "[TUTBAD]...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.434039549994133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1689736232501
120
extent_of_foxes
1682472674414
0
https://firebasestorage.…318-f4ea213ccb90
10
0
8
[{"name": "This Used To Be About Markets", "slug": "this-used-to-be-about-markets", "groupId": "RqpmlE3BYQqVyRiNfvMv", "createdTime": 1658529460388}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529546311}]
["this-used-to-be-about-markets", "culture-default"]
0.5
1682472674251
0.84
0.5000000000001542
F8q7pZ782bJeASR56wur
{"NO": 7026.56890346252, "YES": 1.4231697059244652}
1
will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-3e17fe4a78dc
8058.147056511397
Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $715 on June 24, 2022?
1656097200000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
5.321567579033274
True
play
YES
public
1656027612640
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. T...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.777577093242502, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656100929255
100
Predictor
1656093691854
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
5
0
1
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529424543}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529567266}]
["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]
0.5
1656093691696
0.999797499813445
0.5975232198142415
theEN5E1M7TMpsNHs1QS
{"NO": 40.97088390264878, "YES": 563.5194850365333}
0
did-i-breakfracture-my-ankle-whilst
507.2057706860636
Did I break/fracture my ankle whilst climbing?
1656046162062
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
cpmm-1
0
2.473900505567581
True
play
NO
public
1656042632982
David Chee
I went for a dynamic move at the top of a 4m wall when climbing at a bouldering gym. I couldnt grab the final hold and fell. I landed on my ankle really poorly and it twisted and I immediately thought to myself... "it must be broken". After resting and pressing ice the pain doesnt hurt too badly, but I'm going to the ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.170718769232472, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1656046162062
200
SirSalty
1656617284409
0
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
2
0
[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435879}]
["mexifolk"]
0.5
1656044894841
1656617252317
0.097423630948567