CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.4776708464535625

dZiSPIuVTu8iFLiOJuei

{"NO": 1018.4168046467794, "YES": 976.4855117898812}

0.4881693517758996

will-a-european-union-member-state

224.77022543219343

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.59654000940839

False

basic

public

1656552587682

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9796/eu-member-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/

BINARY

{"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9032221140153114, "platformFee": 0.3578414855356025, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1715064188929

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

15

0

5

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531179}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1666104721316}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8Xl...

["science-default", "europe", "metaculus"]

0.5

1715064185690

1678270053693

0.4724660179298209

2UbzxieMe7OelkIXkwy5

{"NO": 988.8059829228869, "YES": 1011.0554716940261}

0.4669235250053386

will-an-antidiscrimination-law-be-e

109.12923710792948

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

4133998740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.602177789766152

False

basic

public

1656552660171

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9752/protection-for-the-gene-editedscreened/

BINARY

{"day": -6.661338147750939e-16, "week": -6.661338147750939e-16, "month": -6.661338147750939e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6449492366789975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1697914918735

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

10

0

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467701}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104669278}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "0...

["politics-default", "futurism", "metaculus", "biotech"]

0.5

1697914918610

1657808471369

False

0.225570970558063

Ts3jBXhQ4FvanXXRZtZU

{"NO": 923.3229064132054, "YES": 1199.4175421971413}

0.1831569544930783

will-china-be-the-first-country-to

709.0786829621668

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

10413809940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

9.669732374586445

False

basic

public

1656552718292

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532/china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0024122992425355816}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6184301814655924, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1718651197014

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

24

0

14

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529528772}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560726}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5Q...

["china", "science-default", "metaculus"]

0.1034860823066433

0.5

1718651193947

0.5

5DAr1AoeFijTpsdvRQEt

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

when-will-100-babies-be-born-whose

0

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

1656552877447

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656552854328

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ Rounded to nearest half-decade. i.e. acceptable answers = 2025, 2030, 2035, etc

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656552877447

100

MetaculusBot

1656552854328

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

0

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522480}]

["science-default"]

0.5

kbCU0NTSe22jMWWwD4i5

when-will-100-babies-be-born-whose-2406cb75f95c

185.1929797517777

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2234663940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1656552954430

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ Rounded to nearest half-decade. i.e. acceptable answers = 2025, 2030, 2035, etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.08803244212727293, "platformFee": 0.022008110531818233, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1689140752315

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

1

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c3f00a9e6bd3", "prob": 0.13436777805652036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.047591656009224, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 206.4589321515717, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kbCU0NTSe22jMWWwD4i5", "createdTime": 1656552954688, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8656322219...

8

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529532747}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736862171}]

["science-default", "ancient-markets"]

1689140752191

True

0.3923885106502451

MoWBNmiMBuZ2CrQjCxSX

{"NO": 117.27468122681684, "YES": 234.52310090865637}

0.2441023385907131

how-good-will-the-best-published-po

95.38856337488767

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

1798779540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656553098836

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8090/polygenic-score-for-intelligence-in-2026/ Resolves PROB.

BINARY

{"day": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "week": -3.0531133177191805e-16, "month": -3.0531133177191805e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8461538461538463, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

MetaculusBot

1708545029738

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

5

0

3

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529527577}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1680319416298

1708545028177

Et7W5YrLu6wsl7cvFEpz

when-will-a-person-who-was-screened

3

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?

4102462740000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656553213561

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9778/screenmodified-person-sues-parents/ Rounded to nearest half-decade. i.e. acceptable answers = 2045, 2050, 2055, etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

MetaculusBot

1682064384172

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "846caca0fb7c", "prob": 0.9425959091337544, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.31960658064911, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.4554640407615307, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Et7W5YrLu6wsl7cvFEpz", "createdTime": 1656553213769, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05740409086...

1

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525826}]

["science-default"]

1682064383046

True

UfhQo1rSecLtGG9bL86v

when-will-a-person-who-was-not-scre

11

When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?

4102549140000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656553298035

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9793/unscreenunmodified-person-sues-parents/ Rounded to nearest half-decade. i.e. acceptable answers = 2050, 2055, 2060, etc

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

280

MetaculusBot

1680205148343

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ffe858ff8d55", "prob": 0.8116224332440549, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.77565159355972, "userId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.730728734865206, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UfhQo1rSecLtGG9bL86v", "createdTime": 1656553298305, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18837756675...

3

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529529006}]

["science-default"]

1680205148160

True

0.02313213610287181

A5a5TVE2awq6N8nSfgBy

{"NO": 912.4012785952489, "YES": 1687.5303899254213}

0.01264122579324169

will-interracial-marriage-be-banned-104a1d4a2b44

1749.1111679468786

Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US state by 2030?

1893473940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1656553872038

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10952/us-state-bans-inter-racial-marriage-by-2030/

BINARY

{"day": -5.204170427930421e-18, "week": -5.204170427930421e-18, "month": -5.204170427930421e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.214328091084113, "platformFee": 0.04164545198202362, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1713887110592

0

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

23

0

20

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474417}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677374371013}]

["politics-default", "metaculus"]

0.5

1713887107157

1656890661073

0.5426947409456829

0vZxgbF1ARj09pTETgEM

{"NO": 1088.64048556082, "YES": 924.9649410410084}

0.5827627034104569

when-the-next-referendum-is-held-on

1598.297158767155

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

2524625940000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0.11081786942327607

9.654233387472974

False

basic

public

1656553956154

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/scotland-votes-leave-in-next-union-referendum/

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.07858618502183856}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.79642231286932, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MetaculusBot

1717673865549

2.3

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

0

41

0

24

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529467025}, {"name": "Scottish independence", "slug": "scottish-independence", "groupId": "vXvYOfofXo827pYk2I6A", "createdTime": 1658529584813}, {"name": "Scotland", "slug": "scotland", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLf...

["scottish-independence", "politics-default", "scotland", "metaculus"]

0.14284129379028437

0.5

1717673862208

1674031658168

0.7157702422340887

ATetGsOnbNH5yfbfXoKe

{"NO": 23927.20202230755, "YES": 157.04316184992604}

1

will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-befor-c928ea76a254

73020.0127323082

Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?

1694724826385

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0.14432073068079376

1.0770168163606009

True

basic

YES

public

1656554001941

Metaculus Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/", "class": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.041872615104593, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1694724826385

1260

MetaculusBot

1694725177978

2.5

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

2

84

0

24

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475169}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856965}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metacu...

["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "metaculus"]

0.1924961389924248

0.5

1694724136772

1694725176411

1

0.20278032322435213

dYPk10oxA9e02IFKp887

{"NO": 982.2079397558334, "YES": 9007.57103249542}

0.026987458324699377

will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-ja

72432.33261735798

Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023?

1735707540000

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

cpmm-1

0.12509002832653357

9.600393716258687

False

basic

public

1656554079578

Metaculus Bot

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10702/us-recession-before-2023/

BINARY

{"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -3.469446951953614e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.646539272529287, "platformFee": 0.16794988597026717, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1845

MetaculusBot

1713970776248

1.5

https://firebasestorage.…86e-b88b648132f6

3

135

0

1

50

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665056712037}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572633}, {"name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", ...

["economics-default", "us-politics", "geopolitics", "metaculus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17748164685784215

0.5

1713970772887

1704250378083

0.6751366947331456

upYcNsagz36aUXZJjJNz

{"NO": 2034.6549160446928, "YES": 83.55345638212233}

1

will-netanyahu-again-become-the-isr

3539.9807140771973

Will Netanyahu again become the Israeli Prime Minister during 2022?

1672446349822

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.4936821203155555

True

play

YES

public

1656573549804

Keepcalmandchill

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.421535052315361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672446349822

320

Keepcalmandchill

1672434183155

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

21

0

19

[{"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1659859269701}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562383}, {"name": "Israel", "sl...

["israeli-politics", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israel"]

0.5

1672434183018

1672424484241

0.98

0.5

5B8t1qINTeIM4WA5ZRon

{"NO": 296.9878952269139, "YES": 33.67140600918934}

1

will-anyone-bet-on-this-by-the-end

201.95049750012376

Will anyone bet on this by the end of the month?

1656593695454

3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2

cpmm-1

0

3.337900024143196

True

play

YES

public

1656591663492

Chizardium

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0616072729623536, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656593695454

100

Chizardium

1656593648416

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff0-ebe348084fa9

3

0

0.5

1656593648227

1656593277188

0.7967644906918135

0.5

caVbDbYD8zSntfiTDY8X

{"NO": 188.0477223427332, "YES": 53.17799054100816}

1

will-andor-get-80-on-rotten-tomatoe

90

Will Andor get 80%+ on Rotten Tomatoes? (Critic Score)

1656678894629

3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2

cpmm-1

0

2.9687727582426415

True

play

YES

public

1656593668187

Chizardium

Since not too much is known about it, I estimated its running will last until November 2nd, and added in a bit of extra time. Also, critic score is tomatometer.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9522776572668106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656678894629

100

Chizardium

1656684031002

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff0-ebe348084fa9

1

0

[{"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860957295}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545830}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "...

["culture-default", "media-rating-futures", "improperly-resolved"]

0.5

1656678881650

1656684026972

0.5

0.5000000000000001

lAS0mrfqBa3pmBBblVjz

{"NO": 75.44595442014835, "YES": 132.54521169301373}

0

will-the-total-amount-of-m-invested

1003.336956629199

Will the total amount of M$ invested in this be an abundant number?

1659221640000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

2.8121506729964816

True

play

NO

public

1656594323923

Ibozz91

An abundant number is one where the sum of all of the factors of the number (except for itself) is strictly greater than the number itself. A deficient number is one where this is strictly less than the number itself. A perfect number is where this is the number itself. Judged by M$x bet above the graph

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.832576172225151, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659223664648

100

Ibozz91

1659222718453

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

14

0

1

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1658963761465}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1659221637038

1659222711672

0.36273634034582203

0.5000000000000001

lVjNtT8jabGHYCfi9jKc

{"NO": 21.192714506770358, "YES": 471.86027050972234}

0

will-the-senate-suspend-the-fillibu

1103.4690137356556

Will the Senate suspend the fillibuster by Sep 15?

1659205740000

nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2

cpmm-1

0

3.8718725354686954

True

play

NO

public

1656599636456

Akhil Wable

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 30, from WSJ: Breaking: President Biden said he supports suspending the filibuster, if necessary, to codify Roe v. Wade into law https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1542502604126662657 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.331194199679356, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666954485097

100

akhil

1666922763575

0

https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

23

0

1

23

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529432837}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503335}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", ...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "global-macro"]

0.5

1659017760879

1666922761394

0.0429826309763878

AhbbyD1RdFazZBfPAupo

who-at-mexifold-introduced-me-to-th

391

Who at Mexifold introduced me to the most interesting idea/consideration?

1657256340000

xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.712001643695084

True

play

MKT

public

1656604807939

Gavriel

This is trying to be a reward (retroactive bounty?) market. I had so many fantastic conversations at Mexifold and am leaving with so many interesting new things to consider! So obviously the best way to say thank you is through a market. Add your own name if you want to be considered for the grand prize of mana and, e...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 16.439999999999998, "platformFee": 4.109999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658332907508

899.9999999999999

GavrielK

1658340805391

0

https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "eaf445161f09", "prob": 0.0414798345784197, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6327852140998849, "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.62246400594155, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AhbbyD1RdFazZBfPAupo", "createdTime": 1656604808173, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434337}]

["mexifolk"]

1657255589972

1658340803271

{"1c1414636909": 9.879461885466252, "2e4914ab8065": 60.482152458134976, "5e7fea1a3e3c": 29.638385656398757}

True

0.5773449161201101

IJL6slHItYhIotgWzeMk

{"NO": 243.3333333333338, "YES": 140.44986931015737}

0.84

what-will-fivethirtyeight-predict-a

770.2364303564448

What will FiveThirtyEight predict as the chance of Republican control of the US House on election day?

1667894340000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

1.8684013513346962

True

play

MKT

public

1656606596063

Ben

Resolves PROB with FiveThirtyEight’s model for Republican controlling the US House of Representatives, as measured on 11/8 Jun 30, 9:38am: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.636590756518608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668348259864

180

bcongdon

1667735589452

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

16

0

2

15

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529430943}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658529457940}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections"]

0.5

1667735588203

1656607930832

0.84

0.43508117841433114

d0nVAoYtG9AigFolw5jr

{"NO": 179.03805963397662, "YES": 133.35395572880026}

0.59

what-will-fivethirtyeight-predict-a-47b155639a44

1373.3965943508265

What will FiveThirtyEight predict as the chance of Republican control of the US Senate on election day?

1667894340000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.01041952930399

True

play

MKT

public

1656607004782

Ben

Resolves PROB with the value measured on 11/8 Jun 30, 9:38am: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.5031154303774965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668348352757

160

bcongdon

1667349355523

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

24

0

2

22

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529432260}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496228}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxl...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections"]

0.5

1667349355341

1659570291825

0.59

0.5000000000000017

dKDFHbKdmfwAuUGnwYof

{"NO": 75.32844252923863, "YES": 132.75198137965629}

0.1

will-i-end-up-working-at-manifold-m

2618.9938491805656

Will I end up working at Manifold Markets?

1657233569192

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

0

2.81258817282949

True

play

MKT

public

1656612715309

Rachael Ng

I'm currently on a work-trial as a UI/UX Designer for Manifold Markets, and spent the past 5 days in Mexico City. My goal for this trip was to meet the team and see if I enjoy the work dynamic. I also work at another startup within the e-sports sphere, and they have offered me a substantial raise with increased hours ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 25.839362369825743, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657233569192

100

RachaelNg

1657233698877

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqO89c_sluW327SVvCvpTQNYWUtcjhF4dYLW8obuU=s96-c

17

0

0.5

1657154691441

1657233697063

0.1

LU2rztUmzG2IBCtZYpPE

what-bosses-will-the-first-elden-ri

400

What bosses will the first Elden ring DLC have?

1672549140000

lECrAcNteYcQvm1UpKAsCefbdqx1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656619860747

Jay

When the first Elden ring DLC is released, what bosses do you expect it to have? Resolves to most correct description for each boss in DLC. (Hydro-kinetic dragon can be more correct than dragon if the dragon controls water.) No answers after bosses are revealed will be accepted.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

JacobIannelli

1702787285693

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOlr6Fo5k2THqrJoOEQ4vDUXBE9KJLgC-PaO9j=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "13926d33c70b", "prob": 0.996, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "lECrAcNteYcQvm1UpKAsCefbdqx1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LU2rztUmzG2IBCtZYpPE", "createdTime": 1656619861078, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0040000000000000036, "week": -0.0040000000000000036, "...

106

2

1665595181089

1702787285077

True

HBAN5QinkH5ZGJXMmtL3

what-will-the-daily-stimulus-be-cal

743.8344928765871

What will the daily stimulus be called?

1657259940000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.686818797754093

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656620722347

Ian Philips

We are planning to replace the daily free market with some other form of daily stimulus tentatively called a login bonus. That may not be the best name though. Is there anything better? I'll resolve the question once the stimulus begins. Jun 30, 2:33pm: note: accessing the site will be a requirement for gaining the ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6487036435321945, "platformFee": 0.1621759108830486, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674919882241

1479.9999999999995

ian

1674668827838

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

28

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3b3f7da9d4ce", "prob": 0.02213337056212452, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.18442537023803293, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.148032161270011, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HBAN5QinkH5ZGJXMmtL3", "createdTime": 1656620722539, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

28

[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529585774}]

["free-markets"]

1657257562894

1674668825475

True

GTQuFvLZ6EPRDqGuO52n

roe-v-wade-overoverturned-by-2026

623.6167778064896

Roe v Wade over-overturned by 2026?

1657602561296

GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.698518376295634

True

play

fe95499e24c3

public

1656623512112

Inga Wei

Thoughts?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.240000000000002, "platformFee": 4.8100000000000005, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657602561296

440

IngaWei

1657409978449

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f3c4d544f14c", "prob": 0.030310737870166974, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7502508663110831, "userId": "GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.001732062138487, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GTQuFvLZ6EPRDqGuO52n", "createdTime": 1656623512327, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

[{"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "ojKdYJvKvdZiWDEyBmEab7kZXYI3", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1663293389526}]

["improperly-resolved"]

1657409978310

1656654180138

{"fe95499e24c3": 100}

True

0.49999999999999967

wX8FCJ4fOrqZRBR6cdgy

{"NO": 275.94246996307186, "YES": 36.239437884781836}

1

will-austin-chen-beat-idas-score-on

180

Will Austin Chen beat Ida's score on counterspell guesser (39%)

1657256340000

yTKzF8T1zyNlWMjyaa4Y9zS32Ob2

cpmm-1

0

3.2670193294332894

True

play

YES

public

1656627100285

Ida Mayer

Will Austin be better than me at guessing which counterspell art matches which name. I've never played magic. https://idamayer.com/counterspell-guesser/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.05753003692811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702853612947

100

IdaMayer

1702853971619

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh7x2k2tmuSHJFfy5o2KteGcr-NoFe2TO42PMPy8w8=s96-c

6

0

1

6

0.5

1656910901130

1702853970954

0.88

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

0.5000000000000001

luyfIkwEyg42WVqnWBfo

{"NO": 115.9573850533082, "YES": 86.23857803798165}

0.5734901096959804

will-large-language-models-exhibit

114.0350453026854

Will large language models exhibit a significant anchoring bias effect?

1657317540000

pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3

cpmm-1

0

2.783538508464373

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656627187025

Apart Research

See the project page https://aisafetyideas.com/?idea=8 for some more context. The Trello card https://trello.com/c/L3iOqroy/1-anchoring-bias-in-llms has even more as well. If the prompt is: `Is the population of Chicago higher or lower than {X}` where X is based on the original anchoring paper's methodology for select...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1684665581301

100

apartresearch

1684665606348

0

https://firebasestorage.…0a7-b6fb3ae10762

8

0

1

8

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533243}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588512}]

["ai", "science-default"]

0.5

1657312561650

1684665602966

0.57

0.5

z46Z5ZNFFc7r3BvTT5xt

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-this-market-resolve-when-i-use

0

Will this market resolve when I use the new market resolution API?

1656627531218

62TNqzdBx7X2q621HltsJm8UFht2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

YES

public

1656627423810

Marshall Polaris

Just making sure that it works.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656627531218

100

mqp

1656627423810

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1b-b4b038ba53f6

0

[{"name": "Marshall's group for testing", "slug": "marshalls-group-for-testing", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "6ymNyR341dQLAPKW5tBm", "createdTime": 1663110888107}]

["marshalls-group-for-testing"]

0.5

0.5007945608020093

G4znhrOoBSXFGRy6zlWM

{"NO": 118.33232803171369, "YES": 86.22800295326196}

0.5792463285440451

will-austin-chen-do-better-than-50

153

Will Austin Chen do better than 50% after 10 rounds on counterspell guesser?

1657256340000

XE84xIex6Eeaq3SkN9CASIKliBG2

cpmm-1

0

2.7655036102398474

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656629079264

Alex Lien

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://idamayer.com/counterspell-guesser/\n\nWill Austin do better than 50% on counterspell guesser? Austin and I met playing magic, but he hasn’t played much since Covid quarantine happened."

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665541870364

101

Marsteralex

1662405960542

0

https://firebasestorage.…dd1-3515c29ca84f

5

0

1

7

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529434573}]

["mexifolk"]

0.5

1656814098428

1662405958367

0.5792463285440451

0.4968517915268021

MCi83NDkFOQZ9bHCHg7k

{"NO": 534.7096986897964, "YES": 311.0088596470569}

1

will-homes-in-colorado-be-cheaper-i

460.2018328004326

Will homes in Colorado be cheaper in summer 2023 than summer 2022?

1672559940000

ILtwgh6DHfVTz9ymGCrbwqQXOBG3

cpmm-1

0

0.8991580465831713

True

play

YES

public

1656630356720

Jackson Wagner

I would like to move to Fort Collins, and buy a home for the first time. Should I rush it, or delay as long as I can? Home values in Fort Collins have risen dramatically over the past two years: https://www.zillow.com/fort-collins-co/home-values/ But, the Fed is raising interest rates which raises the cost of a mort...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4859182863942882, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1686680357956

410

JacksonWagner

1671980432321

0

https://firebasestorage.…512-cdfd9ff98e37

11

0

33

9

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568893}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1671980432150

1656636037513

0.63

PMcLDtaGWLkbBqVZsODp

what-will-i-name-my-nomic-futarchy

464.89069339717304

What will I name my nomic futarchy?

1658492459010

rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7639347016176545

True

play

MKT

public

1656631450356

cos

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Help me pick a name for the project I'm working on! It's basically a company structured as a game of Nomic[1] ruled by futarchy[2] with markets seeking to maximize profit and/or QALYs[3]. Ideally, some portion of profit will be distributed to users...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.040072438710666, "platformFee": 3.0100181096776666, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658492459010

1140.0000000000002

cos

1658436310680

0

https://firebasestorage.…83f-4e72668503f9

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e6ff45237863", "prob": 0.10331752505282822, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.9873269272185163, "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.247811798785207, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PMcLDtaGWLkbBqVZsODp", "createdTime": 1656631450664, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

[{"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1662962447661}, {"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662962444629}, {"name": "Futarchy"...

["futarchy", "nomic-garden", "nomic", "naming-suggestions"]

1658436309396

1657642449320

{"2b6c14793ccb": 80, "fa1966299d8f": 20}

True

c9J93ze4IcgYGaimi6Li

of-the-next-4-star-wars-projects-co

2094

Of the next 4 Star Wars projects confirmed with rough release periods (Andor, Tales of The Jedi, Bad Batch Season 2, and Mando S3), which is most likely to get the best reviews?

1682897552911

3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.637936929846404

True

play

42a835f32e9a

public

1656633618531

Chizardium

As of right now I expect all projects listed will be fully released by May 2023

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682897552911

480

Chizardium

1681136142719

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff0-ebe348084fa9

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d8026ea0dd9e", "prob": 0.0021314889985326836, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.011821408637809215, "userId": "3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.534258653678755, "textFts": "", "contractId": "c9J93ze4IcgYGaimi6Li", "createdTime": 1656633618849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

6

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545758}]

["culture-default"]

1681136142605

1656673692136

{"42a835f32e9a": 100}

True

0.2667420557804065

SB6hntpOtCyMxgJntJLP

{"NO": 1735.7215046532742, "YES": 1755.0551880178066}

0.2645810789150228

will-there-be-10-new-effective-altr

43142.62682649668

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

1814417940000

tiVsErTppMb6ZdlJWFrlMomVgef2

cpmm-1

0.085350788896587

8.743305051517291

False

basic

public

1656636122645

Dwarkesh Patel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Between the creation of this market and 06/30/2027, 10 people will become billionaires who are not billionaires now who identify as effective altruists. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08726107416636147}

0

{"creatorFee": 121.99717147287618, "platformFee": 15.699688845689957, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1765

DwarkeshPatel

1719505781908

1.4

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgGEy7t1u9SqFygUENgZ50WI0aqgEV9ddvRmp-F-Q=s96-c

9

231

1

137

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417415}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589917}]

["effective-altruism", "world-default"]

0.17551968181304226

0.5

1719505778848

1706439516166

0.5000000000001107

kX5Qs7F9ZmTGVUuEUFf9

{"NO": 10002.678051538162, "YES": 0.9997322665458341}

1

am-i-attempting-to-goodhart-the-lea

13500

Am I attempting to Goodhart the leaderboards yet again using Manalinks?

1656644585321

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

5.313200184773595

True

play

YES

public

1656644527810

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.36978798362086424, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656644585321

100

PeterBerggren

1656644582139

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

2

0

0.5

1656644580788

0.0007711255357401403

0.4999999999999998

EpZn11oSsLtWAMtHoTFa

{"NO": 398.3641160095095, "YES": 25.102662609732818}

1

did-the-goodharting-leaderboard-gli

14400

Did the Goodharting leaderboard glitch work?

1656649139755

2yOabPl25lVcBzhZZMX4NX8RqtC2

cpmm-1

0

3.660250591250597

True

play

YES

public

1656649089674

Law of Good Hearts

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.415522841673433, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656649139755

100

PeterBerggrenf455

1656649126222

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJziqd1Y54a94I5ooDDGtlpWdPR7hZM2f_aFr9A=s96-c

2

0

0.5

1656649126081

0.9407210579975537

0.500000000000002

d9FN4aVtWsUXhfpnIyKT

{"NO": 1400.0308324947564, "YES": 7.142699837673717}

1

am-i-about-to-beat-a-bunch-of-actua

14800

Am I about to beat a bunch of actual forecasters on the Manifold leaderboards?

1656649292728

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

5.431287631332979

True

play

YES

public

1656649200482

Peter Berggren

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.783433623235309, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656649292728

100

PeterBerggren

1656649726544

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

2

0

0.5

1656649286025

1656649725656

5.486727156491365e-05

0.680770608169932

HYJ1eXvbKqYPTsO2q28s

{"NO": 1362.9955527211366, "YES": 179.40800812525174}

1

will-i-still-use-facebook-as-the-ma

1383.3767476797354

Will I still use Facebook as the main (online) way I find local events by Jan 1, 2024

1704700740000

qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1

cpmm-1

0

1.491751330408492

True

play

YES

public

1656658629670

Unconditional Probability

I currently use facebook to find local social dance events (and for messenger). I would prefer a non-facebook option, but they currently seem to be the place where most groups post about their events.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4210528117374987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704704695737

360

UnconditionalProbability

1704704696012

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_mob4uLJLk2h35aS2Rp1vnzwAcqWCD37ig_Hk=s96-c

1

18

0

1

4

0.10241029020288234

0.5

1704105351067

1684739457650

0.94

qLpMbN5eb9c2jztfX3j7ClDjXPj1

0.5000000000000002

GXjLEMfKp5AzM5H5iafd

{"NO": 50.39319915665729, "YES": 793.757901252745}

0

will-smtm-answer-ncms-post-criticiz

1262.6532841056442

Will SMTM answer NCM's post criticizing their Lithium theory?

1659308340000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

0

2.424106787111298

True

play

NO

public

1656670017792

Nuño Sempere

This question resolves positively if Slime Mold Time Mold writes a comment on this post: It’s Probably Not Lithium, <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium>. or makes a post directly answering it in their own blog.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 24.054327578446756, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659321472669

200

NuñoSempere

1675042157870

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

19

0

1

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423330}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529526326}]

["slime-mold-time-mold", "science-default"]

0.5

1658921850514

1675042154249

0.059696894468558165

OSABqmqSfjUOGy1ce3Ib

what-tabletop-rpg-will-i-be-excited

484.92925118560703

What tabletop RPG will I be excited to GM a one-shot of?

1657317540000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.701306470754722

True

play

MKT

public

1656671958904

^,^ Épi

I love GMing! I love table-top RPGs! I love one-shots! I love GMing weird small one-shots indie title with my friends :D So I'm looking for a new RPG to plan a session for (2-6 hours). I'm looking for a small, probably indie, game that uses the whole session to its advantage (as opposed to a game orriented toward camp...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 20.122829952575728, "platformFee": 5.030707488143932, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660346410926

1019.9999999999998

epiphanie_gedeon

1660346516218

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "666c5d2aed5c", "prob": 0.032464897329762196, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.42085467949268773, "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.542521585580825, "textFts": "", "contractId": "OSABqmqSfjUOGy1ce3Ib", "createdTime": 1656671959124, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

[{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659121425870}]

["recommendations"]

1657314815078

1660346514246

{"19289c39e3dc": 12.987012987012987, "4ade347acbbd": 64.93506493506493, "baf95ac8e5a9": 12.987012987012987, "c7a37d23191d": 9.090909090909092}

True

0.6691450013715026

P2eOcAdYEarIbX5Wd6x2

{"NO": 557.7541739387466, "YES": 83.04001877003881}

1

will-andor-get-80-on-rotten-tomatoe-a24ced19de89

974.7613891869944

Will Andor get 80%+ on Rotten Tomatoes? (Tomatometer)

1669320378823

3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2

cpmm-1

0

2.6332112373552836

True

play

YES

public

1656679001840

Chizardium

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since not too much is known about it, I estimated its running will last until November 2nd, and added in a bit of extra time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 7:20am: Andor’s 3-Episode Premiere released yeste...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3459736365996713, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669320378823

180

Chizardium

1668468362770

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff0-ebe348084fa9

14

0

13

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543799}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1660860915038}]

["culture-default", "media-rating-futures"]

0.5

1668468362636

1659582609411

0.9314332140543173

0.5000000000000002

XXiFWhQZBUdcUkBN1Xxb

{"NO": 85.10625703308824, "YES": 4230.006259822193}

0

will-slime-mold-time-mold-smtm-crea

3927

Will Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) create a market on Manifold before August?

1659326340000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.6007899575720836

True

play

NO

public

1656685134149

SG

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 41.4473038357806, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659375924614

600

SG

1659324181824

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

20

0

1

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423491}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1658529465435}]

["acx", "slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.5

1659324181696

1659266419715

0.01972283612551338

0.5000000000000001

O9l2VaYLsZSoFJ5X1OHp

{"NO": 93.28844665854484, "YES": 107.19441000665488}

0

will-russian-economy-grow-by-the-en

51

will Russian economy grow by the end of the 2022 by more than 5 percent?

1657313940000

CiaNjjsw62XRgcbpmFKAs9MKoB73

cpmm-1

0

2.7750015495464133

True

play

NO

public

1656685205770

Rustam Lukmanov

This question resolves if the majority of the votes say yes

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3903458841872705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660438181660

100

RustamLukmanov

1657301225672

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghc4ry72s-cMw1LT0PvgTQyy4_7OvVFneW5Q8lGxQ=s96-c

6

0

1

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569415}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227282}]

["economics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1657301224279

1656685823321

False

0.4653188218199311

0.5000000000000002

5Qez1rDfF7JAXwy7FYxd

{"NO": 52.782425243900335, "YES": 192.04592576198974}

0

will-rachael-be-able-to-get-at-leas

205.97135738776439

Will Rachael be able to get at least 3 new friends to try Manifold Markets?

1659326340000

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

0

2.9640262036232468

True

play

NO

public

1656692742184

Rachael Ng

Current friends on the platform don't count, new friends that try Manifold markets have to see at least 6 different pages.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.49751700253452, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661471731718

100

RachaelNg

1661518626346

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqO89c_sluW327SVvCvpTQNYWUtcjhF4dYLW8obuU=s96-c

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Rachael's Homies", "slug": "rachaels-homies", "groupId": "b0ZTxtCP4ztJKZgtAMjZ", "createdTime": 1658529539318}]

["rachaels-homies"]

0.5

1659297926722

1661518619250

0.21558951415161284

0.18084056805114682

ocu2RFil4BJzdOtJ5XZ3

{"NO": 936.1297210490739, "YES": 1164.0832230052906}

0.15076699962984666

will-the-east-african-federation-le

316.00000000000006

Will the East African Federation legally exist by January 1st, 2030?

1893560340000

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-1

0

9.779049610710281

False

basic

public

1656693460879

Eli Gaultney

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation Resolves to 'yes' if the article above is updated to reflect it's existence as a legally recognized entity.

BINARY

{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.447881149669151, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EliGaultney

1709830460311

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

1

13

0

9

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529421003}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1709830460143

1697903286502

0.5000000000000209

YaM6nrNyPfQTJRMgKpoi

{"NO": 10241.65328735686, "YES": 0.976404855682631}

1

will-i-be-able-to-get-paxlovid-toda

10254.271767799059

Will I be able to get Paxlovid today?

1656715967835

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.312738201266671

True

play

YES

public

1656696063927

Jack

Resolves YES if by end of day I have taken Paxlovid. I just tested positive on a rapid antigen, have fever/cough/etc and am scheduling appointments to try to get treatment. #Covid #Personal See https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/ for more.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.07494484408158, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656715967835

100

jack

1656716887577

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463691}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1656715871143

1656716881129

0.8538917224479328

ghiuCtNOJgYbpCEwRUaN

how-many-mexifolk-will-report-posit

620.4586198787501

How many Mexifolk will report positive Covid tests?

1657609140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.691958332862347

True

play

MKT

public

1656697311149

Austin

Resolves to the total number of people who stayed at least 1 night in Mexifold who report a positive covid test of any kind before market close. (yes, this might accidentally include a couple who were infected post-Mexico). Acceptable responses are integers >= 2 (as @SneakySly and @agrippa have already reported positi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3542191074685684, "platformFee": 0.0885547768671421, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662428090975

680.0000000000001

Austin

1662428106126

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ee40530cca51", "prob": 0.02555570769830392, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.441450571811084, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.83259939865333, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ghiuCtNOJgYbpCEwRUaN", "createdTime": 1656697311371, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

9

[{"name": "Mexifold", "slug": "mexifolk", "groupId": "BWEb2ooPrPhRk8qAPe3N", "createdTime": 1658529435375}]

["mexifolk"]

1657565934540

1662428104202

{"7c2125ee33a9": 50, "8b362b24dfcb": 50}

True

MX4PwTuvLfQy7eujJH5W

what-covid-treatments-will-i-get

96.93976996282342

What Covid treatments will I get?

1658207212879

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.863225592097855

True

play

MKT

public

1656697836187

Jack

Resolves to all Covid treatments I get, probably weighted by importance in my judgement. Examples could include - Prescription treatments such as paxlovid, remdesivir, monoclonal antibody, molnupiravir, fluvoxamine - Non-prescription treatment such as Vitamin D (which I'm already taking), zinc - Hospitalization #Pers...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.842409201487064, "platformFee": 1.210602300371766, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658207212879

440

jack

1658207458956

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4d20a6b6e697", "prob": 0.31897595896057074, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.647089132376205, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.947173947509455, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MX4PwTuvLfQy7eujJH5W", "createdTime": 1656697836402, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463404}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

1656813029272

1658207455628

{"297ed1063170": 5, "364213ca3ebd": 85, "76cc7fffe914": 3, "9c242fce8d4e": 5, "b8687cc3e2ce": 1, "e8c9babb263d": 1}

True

0.39327018001366104

8UV2KbNtjHjG3b5i4Xc8

{"NO": 21.557620232415502, "YES": 5864.1865543016265}

0

will-i-get-a-pulse-oximeter-reading

6210.783150798119

Will I get a pulse oximeter reading below 93%?

1658206049701

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.651972775431447

True

play

NO

public

1656703535084

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if my pulse oximeter shows a blood oxygen level below 93% (Not counting noisy readings, I'll wait for the readings to stabilize)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, my do...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.675944212064692, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658206049701

200

jack

1658206041073

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

10

0

1

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463267}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1658206039745

1658206020767

0.05286222030099096

0.21755039169543522

fGDbvVs6YGdd1Vqruts9

{"NO": 947.3216295383783, "YES": 1095.5833963671244}

0.19381601868045298

will-the-national-popular-vote-inte

2274.333212023682

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

1730869140000

HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2

cpmm-1

0

8.237743803890933

False

basic

public

1656703951087

wasabipesto

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the ca...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.01284752307869122, "month": -0.012847523078691303}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.16986629573726, "platformFee": 1.7833344314388944, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

wasabipesto

1719998732608

0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

1

32

1

15

[{"name": "NaPoVoInterCo", "slug": "napovointerco", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "vaCvpWqrPhPQSsLnt5tS", "createdTime": 1667090887712}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581938}, {"name": "P...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "napovointerco", "us-politics"]

0.5

1719998728876

1715027031477

0.22065147670110885

B07wkT41MP9J7ZazFcIp

{"NO": 994.6026859949759, "YES": 926.080368981331}

0.23317102654612676

will-the-national-popular-vote-inte-74c41fb4a2c2

727.7094599662685

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]

1857272340000

HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2

cpmm-1

0

9.535354617663968

False

basic

public

1656705125900

wasabipesto

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the ca...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.037213261551026305}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.884924244808897, "platformFee": 0.8100106076256554, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

wasabipesto

1718987182294

0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

17

0

12

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529430218}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529475699}, {"name": "NaPoVoInterCo", "slug": "napovointerco", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2"...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "napovointerco"]

0.5

1718987179214

1658001019447

0.5493740631870733

E97b1QmrxZepKh3Se7XX

{"NO": 1.6367577358414565, "YES": 10306.856264281796}

0

will-i-be-recovered-from-covid-by-7

10461.711346403641

Will I be recovered from Covid by 7/9?

1657431859823

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.258857741756223

True

play

NO

public

1656706639295

Jack

That would be 9 days from my first positive test and onset of symptoms on 6/30. #Personal #Covid I'll define recovered as no symptoms AND negative rapid antigen test.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.2269443363547, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657431859823

200

jack

1657431849817

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

8

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463333}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657431848517

1657431838614

0.32024377944636667

0.5

tc9kNQTnJdseSTgzJR1n

{"NO": 253.60142295924769, "YES": 41.679769451622}

0.3

can-manifold-draw-a-picture-with-th

527.9017212903705

Can Manifold draw a picture with the market graph? [Etch-A-Sketch Edition]

1657339140000

jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2

cpmm-1

0

3.1119200431266845

True

play

MKT

public

1656709144639

Michael Wheatley

Resolves to YES if betters can successfully draw a picture with the market graph. You can try to draw anything except for a cityscape, which I'm disqualifying on the grounds that every Manifold chart currently looks like a cityscape. Based on past markets https://manifold.markets/ian/can-we-draw-an-animal-with-the-g...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.633074367990448, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658150853065

100

MichaelWheatley

1658169641761

0

https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a

14

0

1

0.5

1657335444017

1658169637950

0.3

0.49251936012562897

ueRH0jBegpqCMA60x6fL

{"NO": 179.81339487298993, "YES": 495.00306396407177}

0.2606545834418843

will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w

703.8948727318343

Will my wife get Covid from me, if we isolate from each other?

1657085562077

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.2604199960624454

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656709410906

Jack

Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us isolating from each other. (It's slightly possible she'd get it from some other source, but most of the probability mass is from me.) Resolves N/A if we do not isolate from each other. I just got Covid on 6/30...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657085562077

300

jack

1657085548481

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

20

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529464053}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657068724026

1657085542890

0.26065458344188436

0.703784055129678

bZbF2P1YWEn8Wa4slN4R

{"NO": 305.7724574525054, "YES": 276.919426792588}

0.7240213700897848

will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-5d3916db7dd4

1299.4945020612524

Will my wife get Covid from me, if we do NOT isolate from each other?

1657085178761

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.442853971132131

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656709626563

Jack

Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us NOT isolating from each other. (It's slightly possible she'd get it from some other source, but most of the probability mass is from me.) Resolves N/A if we do isolate from each other. I just got Covid on 6/30...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657085178761

300

jack

1657085463800

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

21

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463834}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657053913987

1657085462107

0.7240213700897848

qg4DOwqpEg6ABWwWANhr

if-we-rewrite-our-backend-for-bette

394.47371756754615

If we rewrite our backend for better performance, what will we use?

1665039540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.756990505747124

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656711421747

Austin

Kind of a continuation of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-database-will-manifold-be-prim . Conditional on us starting on a more performant (eg 2x speed improvement?) implementation of trading, what will that be built on? If the condition is met, will resolve to my subjective assessment of how important each piece...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.028991568073317923, "platformFee": 0.007247892018329481, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665067327075

820

Austin

1664806681387

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ec5af62349a9", "prob": 0.09321969730571804, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7933363195735676, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.44440389419524, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qg4DOwqpEg6ABWwWANhr", "createdTime": 1656711421961, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

9

[{"name": "Backend v2", "slug": "backend-v2", "groupId": "J1hEfCZs7RurfyYkbA9R", "createdTime": 1658529457140}]

["backend-v2"]

1664806681217

1658222717892

True

0.22624390809522732

3zKlaM8dfHiMhFLS4NwZ

{"NO": 2333.565185027607, "YES": 0.26831045650476426}

1

if-i-take-paxlovid-will-i-have-a-co

2642.93881931568

If I take Paxlovid, will I have a Covid rebound?

1657476349785

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.1076466715796105

True

play

YES

public

1656713082577

Jack

Resolves YES if after the 5-day Paxlovid course, I have a Covid rebound; roughly defined as: my symptoms get worse again and/or rapid antigen tests show strong positives again. See https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1522925869358014464 for some discussion and background. Close date updated to 2022-07-16 11:59...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 23.507349499616716, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657476349785

311

jack

1657509457963

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

5

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463200}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657476314863

1657509455017

0.18776442825341552

0.5000000000000004

HKUd9eEjc212QwyWt049

{"NO": 35.48721213437957, "YES": 281.79164827411455}

1

will-i-exercise-45-minutes-a-day-in

2004.7155509763397

Will I exercise 45 minutes a day in July?

1659391141264

qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233

cpmm-1

0

3.286823849881711

True

play

YES

public

1656734687601

Alice

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if I average 45 minutes of exercise per day in July. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overoptimistically raising the bar from last month! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.555486260233828, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659391141264

100

Alice

1659392943858

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c

10

0

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1659378467408}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1659381791665

1659392941848

0.11184864976093933

tfnTyqkAJEncUCmN2D8M

how-many-times-will-lechonk-be-able

1356

How many times will Lechonk be able to evolve?

1668837540000

LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.648873299012126

True

play

41db2398f398

public

1656738265427

wavedash

Close date is set to the release date of the new Pokemon games, but I may resolve the question early if official news is announced before that (e.g. this page is updated https://scarletviolet.pokemon.com/en-us/pokemon/lechonk/)

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668841207675

500

wavedash

1668879128214

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8f649d4ac392", "prob": 0.004717123535804855, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04546431422226181, "userId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.592679329286216, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tfnTyqkAJEncUCmN2D8M", "createdTime": 1656738265666, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

9

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459823}]

["nintendo"]

1668835244000

1668879127885

{"41db2398f398": 100}

True

BCZOMTQb8FiS6RRYrb0e

what-ratio-should-i-increase-my-bik

40

What ratio should I increase my biking to?

1657425540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.919565222634214

True

play

MKT

public

1656749384063

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve to ⅔ share on the top market selected one, with the rest split between the two answers numerically closest to it. I currently bike 45 minutes 4 times per week at the highest resistance on my bike (8 settings) Please give answers in the form [times]:[days](:[resistance]). Resistance not given assumes it...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.320000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0800000000000003, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657428729039

419.99999999999994

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657154487680

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "156b04e090a8", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.56131268491432, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.618860177517746, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BCZOMTQb8FiS6RRYrb0e", "createdTime": 1656749384288, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554353}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492224}]

["personal-goals", "olivia"]

1657154487561

1656785661511

{"c86a2f6859b8": 66.66666666666667, "e7618421b64c": 16.666666666666668, "ff0bdaf121f4": 16.666666666666668}

True

HFF0NTg9Sd3K1WyNMAwp

what-will-be-the-next-un-member-sta

405.06025296139705

What will be the next UN Member state?

1893474000000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1656766446196

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be the next country to join the United Nations as a member state (Not an observer). If multiple countries join at the exact same time, I will resolve {1/n, …} Jul 2, 8:57am: Also, if there isn’t a new member by 2030, it will resolve to “n...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1480098904916118, "platformFee": 1.1480098904916118, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2179.9999999999995

Ibozz91

1716570304924

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

1

21

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "303665ab6bca", "prob": 0.09728074887859393, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.689721960754156, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 461.09707330504676, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HFF0NTg9Sd3K1WyNMAwp", "createdTime": 1656766446447, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

12

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415512}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243654}]

["world-default", "india"]

1716048816551

1716570302810

False

True

0.6691308116239687

w6pr0WRsU5ipf57R6KTX

{"NO": 14677.162622796925, "YES": 141.4027416863837}

1

will-a-gene-editing-therapy-receive

19996.374415276176

Will a gene editing therapy receive approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023?

1700138552652

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

1.5631260284466784

True

play

YES

public

1656771224543

Stephen Malina

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if any (DNA) gene editing (including but not limited to CRISPR-based, prime editing, base editing) therapy receives (full) approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023. The idea for this question was sparked...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.7892424467928834, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1700138552652

780

StephenMalina

1700133085257

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

3

49

0

11

[{"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfwjHy", "createdTime": 1663598453994}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536346}, {"name": ...

["science-default", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "biotech"]

0.5

1700133085125

1700132705680

1

0.5000000000000001

SsxyTCO21r4GhGJCbOkx

{"NO": 65.54890628549805, "YES": 152.55784675407136}

0.3005358860832981

conditional-on-ea-orgs-spending-ove

223.40325574131566

Conditional on EA orgs spending over $100,000 lobbying for the Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023?

1672549140000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

2.8611332079539906

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656777528913

Bionic

Resolves NA if the condition isn't respected.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673848269264

100

BionicD0LPH1N

1667245284611

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

6

0

4

5

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487665}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590064}]

["effective-altruism", "politics-default"]

0.5

1667245284505

1658419110951

0.3

0.254014074352327

uq9OExVfF4QpBsFC7CXf

{"NO": 105.3175080922305, "YES": 466.5037803100691}

0.07138519611472073

conditional-on-ea-orgs-spending-und

665.2319449782253

Conditional on EA orgs spending under $100,000 lobbying for the Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill, will it reach Royal assent by 2023?

1672549140000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

2.8884641888363776

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656777621125

Bionic

Resolves NA if the condition isn't respected.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673848301791

180

BionicD0LPH1N

1672980264549

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

10

0

4

8

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510351}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529590528}]

["effective-altruism", "politics-default"]

0.5

1672544706990

1672980261300

0.07

dlbnhUPtQFABJUlvD4kb

when-will-the-first-aigenerated-boo

919.828497253769

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

4102441140000

Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1656779198895

ersatz

The book can be *copy edited* by a human but no more than a book is usually copy edited.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6555454595359516, "platformFee": 0.4138863648839879, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ersatz

1710206690769

0

https://firebasestorage.…fae-9ad9a107b2f7

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fef35dee3d97", "prob": 0.04094912301114603, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.25461313903091, "userId": "Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 193.32755839573113, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dlbnhUPtQFABJUlvD4kb", "createdTime": 1656779199102, "probChanges": {"day": -0.95905087698...

17

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}]

["technology-default", "ai", "books"]

1680890254477

1656871263770

True

0.6976253938513663

ueSAjYMxks1JokjUJKek

{"NO": 729.4376070440527, "YES": 39.11443436577988}

1

while-taking-paxlovid-will-my-covid

1848.3442045218203

While taking Paxlovid, will my Covid symptoms be reduced >50%?

1657123260408

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.380296170717799

True

play

YES

public

1656781506687

Jack

Resolves yes if while taking Paxlovid (5-day course), my Covid symptoms are subjectively reduced by >50%. I started Paxlovid 1 day after symptoms onset and positive rapid antigen test. Author betting policy: I will not bet in this market, because of the subjectivity of the resolution, and also so that you can worry l...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.294859121514767, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657123260408

179.5037537021991

jack

1657123247276

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

5

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529464128}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657123242594

1657123237973

0.9210212755276304

0.7613152978710754

65AQhu4IcGdnaNpfCmsL

{"NO": 957.7738058518536, "YES": 587.9634656146836}

1

will-the-supreme-court-overrule-gru

2884.7079749087343

Will the Supreme Court overrule Grutter v. Bollinger and hold that institutions of higher education cannot use race as a factor in admissions?

1688047504321

rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73

cpmm-1

0

0.7885141597245596

True

play

YES

public

1656784005162

Wilson Kime

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note on resolution timing: I'll close this market once it's clear the court has issued an opinion. Then give me a day to resolve. It should be pretty obvious after a day with headlines breaking down the decision, and I don't want to resolve solely ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.33666708025021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688154765381

680

wilsonkime

1688154712234

0.3

https://firebasestorage.…7e6-3b1946ddd776

0

49

0

1

37

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529427248}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470335}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EL...

["politics-default", "law-order", "scotus", "supreme-court"]

0.11281682511339677

0.5

1687914399559

1688154709814

0.84

0.5000000000000002

fp1QUNbVvbZiqqT9tuBg

{"NO": 181.80044089687115, "YES": 55.00536715239672}

0.85

will-i-continue-being-productive-fo

132

Will I continue being productive for a full month? (prob=streak days/30)

1659391140000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

2.948637070340583

True

play

MKT

public

1656790358042

^,^ Épi

See https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/will-my-hypomaniaburst-of-productiv which conflated my feeling of euphoria and my working everyday/regularly. While I don't experience hypomania now, I still continue working on my projects very regularly everyday. Interested to know if this is another fad, or if I'm able to really ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.339529053472892, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659391939806

100

epiphanie_gedeon

1659392063851

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

4

0

1

[{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1658529539903}]

["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions"]

0.5

1659363642884

1659392059894

0.85

0.2433720507302688

jHqHmZmcs7AfUqn0YzCQ

{"NO": 585.3238631810045, "YES": 169.5600228267687}

0.7777777777777779

how-many-numeric-markets-will-be-cr-c93cab40c021

207.51940956864192

How many numeric markets will be created this week?

1657425540000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.2607843654034117

True

play

MKT

public

1656791005249

SG

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.574166298584299, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657464054914

433

SG

1657397231215

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

10

0

1

0.23232323232323232

1657397230028

1656791574593

0.7777777777777779

0.2857142857142857

Kk8w7P8tBvbjoPWlBaWs

{"NO": 141.15254904816496, "YES": 42.50967906436763}

0.5714285714285714

how-many-days-until-limit-orders-ar

89.15637268902537

How many days until limit orders are in production?

1657481556451

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

0

1.6974127624938429

True

play

MKT

public

1656791340449

James

Resolves to the number of days after July 2nd when Manifold releases the limit orders feature in production. For example, if limit orders are released July 4th, I'd choose "2" as the resolution value.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.90179833824815, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657481556451

100

JamesGrugett

1657482650640

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

10

0

0.2857142857142857

1657481051128

1657482649315

0.5714285714285714

0.316888773127456

ObjxZ2D4hPVyRJeAzVxv

{"NO": 495.2261165851255, "YES": 100.53113883070938}

0.6842105263157895

how-many-days-will-my-covid-infecti

349.0732627417176

How many days will my Covid infection last? (Days from first to last positive antigen test)

1658041140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.5912340130345688

True

play

MKT

public

1656791821699

Jack

Resolves to the number of days between my last positive rapid antigen test and my first (6/30). For example, if my last positive rapid antigen test is on 7/5, that would be 5 days. Note that in the event that I get a negative test followed by more positives, the duration will continue counting up as long as I think it...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.809738787963802, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658206702892

300

jack

1658206774796

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

7

0

1

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463473}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.2631578947368421

1657738357445

1658206773185

0.6842105263157895

0

26mG9C42rNwnJafVcVB2

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

how-much-will-be-bet-on-this-market

0

How much will be bet on this market?

1656792502779

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656792353433

Jack

Resolves to the volume at market close.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656792502779

100

jack

1656793124554

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

0

1656793119252

0.7412436767846794

SwMNBUXxCp0AUUJSgL24

{"NO": 156.2974679504355, "YES": 84.55039991053532}

0.8365720649165163

how-much-will-be-bet-on-this-market-9773609846a8

104577.52515439541

How much will be bet on this market?

1657436340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.6838673444246703

True

play

MKT

public

1656793083890

Jack

Resolves to the volume at market close.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 76.74960272526907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657463869395

178.98780866770778

jack

1657436013611

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

16

0

1

0.49992761755698273

1657436012383

0.8365720649165163

0.8979440985652176

wdZYkucBhpyZd93bn27l

{"NO": 99.06319530487727, "YES": 100.10703170035347}

0.8969795130185524

2022-election-how-many-seats-will-r

72

2022 Election: How many seats will Republicans have in the House?

1657044233675

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

7.56377891178218

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656793126973

SneakySly

How many seats in the House will Republicans have after the 2022 election? Results as determined by fivethirtyeight after the results come in.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657044233675

100

SneakySly

1657044411734

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

3

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511776}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867789}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.8979440985652176

1656905227093

1657044411068

False

0.7818659775110649

u1RLzE2OB8ZXwRmnW53r

{"NO": 72.3665496690034, "YES": 105.45824884327811}

0.6656392972796107

how-much-will-be-donated-through-ma-5f9ea0df6668

197.44297205389998

How much will be donated through Manifold for Charity in total, by July 15?

1657954740000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.755907863874304

True

play

MKT

public

1656793386712

Jack

This is a numeric market version of https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/how-much-will-be-donated-through-ma and it will resolve the same way. Amount is in USD. Resolves to the amount on https://manifold.markets/charity (not including donation matching)

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.333172584755571, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657983472580

106.12257400501363

jack

1657954710195

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

4

0

1

0.6474631323727743

1657954708947

0.6656392972796107

0.5

QdnSyaVWDa44wYPQTQRo

{"NO": 91.0993358985833, "YES": 109.77028428761052}

0.4549999999999999

what-will-be-the-change-in-real-us

73.20943683094305

What will be the % change in real US GDP during Q2 2022? (annualized percent, first estimate)

1659034216773

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.776932103514598

True

play

MKT

public

1656794034411

Jack

Resolves to the annualized percent change in US real GDP compared to last quarter, as reported in the first ("advance") estimate according to BEA, see https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. For example, the latest estimate for Q1 2022 is -1.6%, which would resolve as 1.6. https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/hi...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.2499994481892505, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659034216773

100

jack

1659034191305

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569914}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1659034032143

1659034189563

0.4549999999999999

0.5

UH4fNjBPna0Fua8GVpRg

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-chris-from-seattle-have-10-new

0

Will Chris from Seattle have 10 new sexual partners the rest of 2022?

1656794780215

fkPbcfvospNx3MDeyIBNMaEucxp2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656794547869

Tyler Woodard

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656794780215

100

TylerWoodard

1656794547869

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxYGsSpesysrW12c-iQsFePYuyvU2gCmXpmUS4=s96-c

0

0.5

0.24822157360212774

50sT0XJEkfYHioopmSDs

{"NO": 498.6725135744382, "YES": 504.0180121060148}

0.25

how-many-eyes-will-i-have-at-market-9094c95493c1

170.9369574683825

How many eyes will I have at market close?

1657436340000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

0.9770501418655715

True

play

MKT

public

1656799069795

Ben

A rerun of this market with the new numeric market system https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/how-many-eyes-will-i-have-at-market

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.410517851925861, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657455505582

500.1058731809685

bcongdon

1657390819613

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

8

0

1

0.25

1656964372314

1657390817641

0.25

0.49999999999999867

ymG9SWOFHDhCeJYeeRry

{"NO": 1853.3164950102941, "YES": 5.395732475766181}

1

will-dr-p-resolve-their-trump-marke

2019.0478433345963

Will Dr. P resolve their Trump market honestly?

1657062341346

nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143

cpmm-1

0

5.398408745633964

True

play

YES

public

1656800366931

Peter Berggren

This question resolves to "YES" if Dr. P resolves their Trump market within a week of market close, and resolves it to the actual status of Donald Trump as president, according to whitehouse.gov. This question resolves to "NO" otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.616905098713115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657062341346

100

PeterBerggren

1657058181809

0

https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023

14

0

0.5

1657058181682

1657057766133

0.9970970587076493

0.6479862657827042

a1zC9E6bkOuNlraVnqZp

{"NO": 0.5348368795766874, "YES": 9025.177000534579}

0

will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-0f1ff257ac64

9410.885868030766

Will my wife get Covid from me, if we take moderate precautions?

1658206500764

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.116271367107044

True

play

NO

public

1656802347088

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us taking moderate precautions to avoid transmission. The sort of precautions I'm roughly thinking of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 26.372117890794733, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658206500764

300

jack

1658207886587

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

15

0

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463761}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1658206492024

1658207885081

0.05000000000000007

0.15999999999999995

3pqSTraMGw5uwB3Z1tKU

{"NO": 114.10301464699032, "YES": 50.02534889957647}

0.3

how-many-traders-will-trade-on-this

104.5216943486599

How many traders will trade on this market?

1657436340000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

5.240942034918224

True

play

MKT

public

1656803971517

Ben

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.237831585125044, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657455453488

100

bcongdon

1657435970329

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

15

0

1

0.16

1657435969084

0.3

0.46475

r2CFKGuLbhFXJ5RpaipU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.46475

what-will-the-price-of-btc-be-on-71

0

What will the price of BTC be on 7/10/2022?

1656804262522

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.78643801578775

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656804187468

Ben

Resolves to the "open" price of BTC on 7/10/2022 from coinmarketcap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656804262522

100

bcongdon

1656804265723

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

0

0.46475

1656804259660

0.4999999999999187

iTbyQNjGoFLrjzhS8Rd7

{"NO": 11253.10222648455, "YES": 0.8886438422705396}

1

will-nuno-resolve-their-question-ye

11212.154276053428

Will Nuno resolve their question YES within 1 month?

1656864782613

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.310999197518349

True

play

YES

public

1656806159112

Jack

Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-273301020824 resolves YES within 1 month, NO otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.139795273232818, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656864782613

100

jack

1656864775911

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

6

0

0.5

1656864774649

1656863274757

0.993672740562767

0.1683623710481953

ziMudT1YRFpQTahNoyST

{"NO": 50.24650313626743, "YES": 1047.6270536731765}

0

will-britain-invade-ireland

1285.6686472303359

Will Britain invade Ireland?

1672556340000

nTJeZgd7LXVKOOLcb6vGUKRgHRg1

cpmm-1

0

6.159115935515553

True

play

NO

public

1656806586670

Noah Bozzuto

The Brit’s could March through dublin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.34275624202784, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1685209095895

140.5051490958421

NoahBozzuto

1670341597524

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwRiOdkQm7_PdrReYHW6YhmQlG8U0M_bb7y8sUR=s96-c

13

0

30

12

0.5

1670341597390

1656877046286

0.01

0.1505149978319906

LydlXrR7IX7ZkqhSjwJ6

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1505149978319906

how-many-eyes-will-i-have-at-close

0

How many eyes will I have at close?

1656810765029

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

5.421131831915839

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656809839295

Martin Randall

Testing whether new numeric markets are better than old ones.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656810765029

100

MartinRandall

1656810754444

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

0

0.1505149978319906

1656810749727

0.5000000000000001

bgZUgLTpUn6NQ4aYMltI

{"NO": 39.496947739111285, "YES": 253.18412111368423}

0

will-belarus-begin-a-land-invasion

326

Will Belarus begin a land invasion of western Ukraine by the end of 2022?

1657425540000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

3.1893837190988386

True

play

NO

public

1656816978344

DAL59

(It must be an invasion from the current Belarussian border, so sending troops to the current eastern front on the Russian border would not count, and Belarussian troops must make up a significant portion of the invasion force)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.319416689948325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672549718334

100

DAL59

1657210314038

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

12

0

1

13

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419241}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224477}]

["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1657210312679

False

0.13

0.4999999999999999

EBLtjQhK0DegUYse6Ivu

{"NO": 19.476822609808494, "YES": 519.0348759532092}

1

will-i-have-sex-with-a-new-person-b

917.5713618794601

Will I have sex with a new person before September 1st?

1662012000000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

3.9801755184127123

True

play

YES

public

1656824766335

Aella

A continuation of my last one, where I failed to have sex with anyone new, despite attending an orgy. Some information about my sexual habits is included here: https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-have-sex-with-a-new-person-i Jul 3, 12:06am: As of right now, I have no concrete plans to have sex with an individual per...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.261112437167947, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662015868060

100

Aella

1662011274755

0

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

31

0

1

29

[{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821903536}]

["sex-and-love"]

0.5

1662011273417

0.03616787279047249

0.6133613244510648

INIJzkwBVluMUoT1ib8U

{"NO": 115.47032063584558, "YES": 91.33161829343844}

0.6672959044946583

how-much-will-my-first-supply-of-fe

16

How much will my first supply of feminizing hormones cost?

1658121488612

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.9297017037109363

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656828420750

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Conditional on my other market regarding getting an appointment resolving to YES. If prescribed a 90 day supply, I will evaluate as if it is for 30 days so as to not bias results. Please make your bets for a 30 day supply. This is in the US (MI), with insurance, likely through CVS Jul 3, 2:07am: Androgen blockers in...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658121488612

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657238729376

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

0

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549634}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492226}]

["trans-questions", "olivia"]

0.6133613244510648

1656829132734

1657238726016

0

LNjpftPnzV1EADoV83im

{"NO": 110, "YES": 110}

0

as-i-currently-judge-it-how-long-wi

0

As I currently judge it, how long will my current cardio streak last?

1656828741031

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656828652112

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Past streaks have been: 235 days, 2 days, 44 days. Current streak is 69 as of today

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656828741031

110

LivInTheLookingGlass

1656828652112

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

0

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554726}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492226}]

["personal-goals", "olivia"]

0

0.08997959818934062

FCyooIGZGsdY0p2ZPrnV

{"NO": 101.747780287999, "YES": 80.7796720100063}

0.11074907423124813

as-i-currently-judge-it-how-long-wi-04381a64b3ad

23.90126522006971

As I currently judge it, how long will my current cardio streak last?

1658432900737

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

8.261621181167223

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656828824571

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Will resolve to the value that my habit tracker records when the current streak is broken Jul 3, 2:13am: initialized to the current value of 69 days Jul 3, 2:20am: Previous record two streaks were 44 days and 235 days

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658432900737

119.1006667946462

LivInTheLookingGlass

1658432898424

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

2

0

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554502}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492233}]

["personal-goals", "olivia"]

0.069

1657179152858

1658432894502

0.7605775172697412

8N4pDj6SJS5TC62sycBm

{"NO": 138.1264472284711, "YES": 193.68726110402307}

0.8096056412864218

how-much-will-it-cost-for-me-to-get-771b197cc95f

88.96858145613109

How much will it cost for me to get sperm cryopreservation (in USD upfront + 1 year storage)

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.4547220997476087

True

play

MKT

public

1656831592363

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Please give your answer as the sum of upfront costs and storage for one year Will resolve once I have paid the final upfront costs bill, where this is defined as any bill related to an appointment. We are aiming to have a 95%+ confidence of the ability to have 3 kids. My partner, who would be carrying the pregnancies...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5483131750192948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676533122491

180

LivInTheLookingGlass

1676561823997

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

0

8

0

10

9

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1658529549432}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1659073404580}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k1...

["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "olivia"]

0.7999788638788092

1671225825770

1676561811708

0.8096056412864218

0.25

LYDmsktohMXcGfOoN5ol

{"NO": 101.85302878860331, "YES": 94.64074618034448}

0.24

how-many-followers-will-i-have-on-j

2

How many followers will I have on July 15th?

1657857540000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

3.6974591268724053

True

play

MKT

public

1656846217490

David Glidden

Resolves to the number of Manifold followers as shown on my profile here when I get around to checking it sometime on July 15th, 2022: https://manifold.markets/dglid

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14697121139668856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657881254764

100

dglid

1656966432423

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

1

0

1

0.25

1656966431264

0.24

0.9903691013248648

DEEg2KFasSdCfwZk3sIE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9903691013248648

who-much-will-our-2br-2ba-condo-in

0

Who much will our 2br 2ba condo in Washington, DC sell for?

1656847060738

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656846902853

David Glidden

Redo of https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-much-will-our-condo-in-washingt with new numeric market format. We listed our condo on the market in late May for an initial asking price of $624,900: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3465-14th-St-NW-APT-A-Washington-DC-20010/119083562_zpid/ We have not had much interest,...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656847060738

100

dglid

1656847235116

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

0

0.9903691013248648

1656847231559

0.5744999999999999

5yp0uCD96ldlRTNHnyYs

{"NO": 92.34516140260037, "YES": 106.07567585671556}

0.540316208924282

how-much-will-our-2br-2ba-condo-in

209.34591598428165

How much will our 2br 2ba condo in Washington, DC sell for?

1672549140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

2.837941964610639

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656847182623

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Redo of https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-much-will-our-condo-in-washingt with new numeric market format. We listed our condo on the market in late May for an initial asking price of $624,900: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3465-14th-St-NW-APT...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672578877320

100

dglid

1662052996058

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

4

0

1

3

0.5745

1662052994729

0.6739508717434871

iQxjpN4CTCLT1srOBcKO

{"NO": 83.5457395878885, "YES": 141.44832411483335}

0.7120000000000001

how-many-fantasy-points-will-christ-e8f89b6def52

74.43833572961181

How many fantasy points will Christian McCaffrey score in the 2022 NFL regular season?

1673200800000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

2.807845614378132

True

play

MKT

public

1656847595644

David Glidden

This market resolves to the number of PPR fantasy points scored by Christian McCaffrey in the 2022 regular NFL season (including Week 18) according to https://fantasydata.com/nfl/christian-mccaffrey-fantasy/18877.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4184682945775586, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673788238491

120

dglid

1673065712728

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

3

0

2

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529406320}, {"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "createdTime": 1659151238560}]

["sports-default", "fantasy-football-nfl"]

0.7

1673065712613

0.7120000000000001

0.6060606060606059

j9jr8aJJt9S00ZIGUxQk

{"NO": 150, "YES": 76.83174228123666}

0.7502226942935221

on-what-day-of-2022-will-we-sell-ou

50

On what day of 2022 will we sell our condo? (listed Day 145/May 25th)

1672549140000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

cpmm-1

0

2.958875094852276

True

play

CANCEL

public

1656849228660

David Glidden

On May 25th, the 145th day of 2022, we listed our 2br 2ba condo for sale: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3465-14th-St-NW-APT-A-Washington-DC-20010/119083562_zpid/ This market resolves to the day in 2022 we close on the sale of our condo. See here for a cheat sheet of 2022 calendar days to day of the year: https://...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672578596497

100

dglid

1662205577939

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

1

0

1

2

0.6060606060606061

1662205576914

1656864660968

0.2995468369039834

IlT00iNgi2HpD3APS7j9

{"NO": 82.77979401657497, "YES": 757.7336099938639}

0

will-the-seattle-east-link-light-ra

622.6560508183195

Will the Seattle East Link light rail extension open for passengers in 2023?

1704095940000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.821294982614167

True

play

NO

public

1656864062719

Ben

Resolves YES if at least one of the East Link expansion light rail stations opens for passengers in 2023. https://www.soundtransit.org/system-expansion/east-link-extension

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.620823978218856, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704202132698

180

bcongdon

1704202133159

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

11

0

1

5

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415760}, {"name": "Seattle", "slug": "seattle", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "6PG7rSSarK58uc0JM6oW", "createdTime": 1663335963047}, {"name": "Cascadia", "slug": "cascadia", "userId": "XquaG2KfrBe...

["world-default", "seattle", "cascadia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.09361835305485038

0.5

1704068470533

1704187169571

0.04

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

0.5687586205963909

Ua0aunq6iFUf481qVR1R

{"NO": 210.71661667847187, "YES": 65.17584525392745}

0.8098755986185462

how-many-upvotes-will-alex-and-idas

258.1698642058472

How many upvotes will Alex and Ida's "Counterspell Guesser" game get on r/magicTCG?

1657522740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.839216223171504

True

play

MKT

public

1656866403126

Austin

I posted the link here: https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/vqlfyz/my_friends_made_this_game_where_you_match/ Resolves to the number of upvotes as of market close. Definitely try out the game: http://idamayer.com/counterspell-guesser/ , it's fun even if you've never played Magic before!

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.897422861930882, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657919896912

110

Austin

1657091213066

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

0

1

[{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852260520}]

["magic-the-gathering"]

0.5395237213008045

1657091212894

1656953067859

0.8098755986185462

0.506100690669494

Ehd8kLi4SIRxa5P38HSI

{"NO": 117.36620919380869, "YES": 103.105769574202}

0.541

what-will-be-the-average-value-of-t

41.89184731274085

What will be the average value of this market over its duration?

1659499140000

hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33

cpmm-1

0

2.590403010478102

True

play

MKT

public

1656869728268

Noah Kreutter

The average will be computed on a time weighted basis, as opposed to volume weighted. So if the market trades at 40 for 3 weeks on low volume, and then volume spikes in the last week and the price goes to 60, it will settle to 40 * 0.75 + 60 * 0.25 = 45. Being early seems good! I will do my best to account for all pr...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9519656084594559, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659500261800

110

NoahKreutter

1659344861964

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwQ58g1WpvrfKKuFx6b-dzbbk-6K-De8RSroBLw=s96-c

6

0

1

0.5

1659344860709

1656949734510

0.541

0.33333333333333315

p06R20NGCybALazYvdcg

{"NO": 155.64132429809536, "YES": 41.280995816836366}

0.6083333333333333

how-many-productives-will-i-earn-in

58

How many productives will I earn in a month?

1659477540000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

3.3341864963790897

True

play

MKT

public

1656878397327

^,^ Épi

I am working on a lot of personal projects right now. My friend grades them in terms of how many productivity point they're worth. This month I've earned ten, and I'm aiming for more than 30. How many will I earn? See also https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/will-i-continue-being-productive-fo My betting policy ( https:/...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.358675701904656, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661045846633

100

epiphanie_gedeon

1659478749951

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

2

0

1

[{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1658529539970}]

["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions"]

0.33333333333333326

1659461760688

1659478739259

0.6083333333333333

0.5000000000000002

IzwaG9roAgMsk8jn5yqI

{"NO": 105.7078571736804, "YES": 94.60034729083338}

1

will-the-shareholder-of-this-market

377.67699296296047

Will the shareholder of this market with the most shares (in this market) hold a YES position?

1659337140000

gIQ6gmJBOacQH0JkEUDGXVCKMXu2

cpmm-1

0

2.7741291511796904

True

play

YES

public

1656879853270

Charles Lien

Ties are broken lexicographically. For example, if there are 3 shareholders of YES holding {10, 7, 2} shares, and there are 2 shareholders of NO holding {10, 9} shares, this market will resolve to NO (since 10=10, and 9>7). Jul 3, 3:00pm: The resolution of this market will be calculated using Manifold's rounded "Payou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.469952627004584, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659339021622

153.9965270916647

CharlesLien

1659339049908

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzE7GH_CbP5WGDzPodZ4CLlmZ_DCNYPC9lbZdeX=s96-c

3

0

1

0.5

1657695052885

1659339038996

0.5277260482478512

0.19817724130880576

trfotP4JXf82Ihobd8fz

{"NO": 478.77826267434506, "YES": 524.955776256662}

0

will-democrats-pass-a-substantial-r

11742.411285174829

Will Democrats pass a substantial reconciliation bill before the midterm elections?

1660517940324

tMHyhPxiQyWe2M46byaEz1FOXHu2

cpmm-1

0

1.1745955369458365

True

play

NO

public

1656883693237

James Medlock

This question resolves to YES if the Democrats pass a bill prior to the November 8th midterm elections that commits, at minimum, $500 billion in towards climate and social spending (excludes deficit reduction), over a 10 year budget window.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 177.57980282166614, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660517940324

693.7826303062795

JamesMedlock

1660518040762

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9DJA2qdCfztMb3SeXkkUOQdp7fIF_53hwwuPo=s96-c

85

0

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509394}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560739762}]

["politics-default", "us-legislation"]

0.5

1660462306496

1660518034473

0.18395141104021134