Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
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dpmPool
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question
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realAnte
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startPool
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elasticity
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phantomShares
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deleted
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isPolitics
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loverUserId2
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resolutions
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shouldAnswersSumToOne
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sort
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0.8251456366073675
F80XsgmtBeKXLxEWSgg9
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8251456366073675
the-next-time-i-start-my-car-it-wil
63
{"NO": 9.5, "YES": 53.5}
The next time I start my car it will spew much white smoke or reveal some equally terrifying problem
1644825540000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.5, "YES": 53.5}
0
5.195876510490448
True
play
YES
public
1644803747492
Em ✨
My car has issues okay. Spewed white smoke last night, need to figure out if i can drive it to the mechanic. Figure i might as well make a prediction before I try.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 26.344240359706706, "YES": 57.22855057460393}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000360555127546399, "YES": 0.0009327379053088815}
0
1644893534512
100
hamnox
1644803747492
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghe6mdLhr8ZWR9SgMEuIc1o30ZiEldwKT8zCvFWlQ=s96-c
3
1715657833778
0
1644804202580
0.8251456366073675
0.5015668941879876
nKyHon3IPOqJYzaWTHJB
{"NO": 11129.476665088216, "YES": 8888.513168251775}
0.5575204543876008
will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202
526115.4465639446
{"NO": 807.4479428863893, "YES": 231.572373170609}
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
1893484740000
5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 809, "YES": 241}
0
0.6948390372197216
False
plus
public
1644805900189
Daniel Reeves
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just \"person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human\". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The inaugural Longbets.org bet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://longbets.org/1/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Metaculus's version", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold mirror of Metaculus's version", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/before-2030-will-an-ai-complete-the", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold numerical market for a full probability distribution on the year AGI appears", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Also I had a real-money version on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "biatob.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://biatob.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for anyone confident that Kurzweil's side has a good chance, but the link keeps breaking)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 931.801770231813, "YES": 459.6854970669365}
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{"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773}
0
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dreev
1720027059075
0.4
https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170
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1650314753141
1
370
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["ai", "technology-default", "metaculus"]
0.22559351713374423
1720027055657
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0.5
SsP5ZpfPsl49660VagBr
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-biden-sign-a-bill-in-2020-bann
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{"NO": 201, "YES": 200}
Will Biden sign a bill in 2020 banning individual stock ownership by members of Congress?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 201, "YES": 200}
0
4.732488080491532
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644807361547
NR
This resolves to YES two weeks after closing if a bill is signed that substantially attempts to accomplish this.
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 284.25587417061405, "YES": 282.84341958140016}
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1644808356897
100
nundo
1644807361547
0
https://firebasestorage.…798-597687738581
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1715658198000
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487582}]
["politics-default"]
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0.5
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.576000511997184
will-jesse-meditate-every-day-this
135
{"NO": 49.000000000000014, "YES": 76}
Will Jesse meditate every day this week?
1645419540000
j6Jd7qEiE7fEVE12Rx40mFwmKP62
cpmm-1
{"NO": 49, "YES": 76}
0
4.950451531069061
True
play
NO
public
1644807914875
NR
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 81.39470498957533, "YES": 94.869130915488}
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1645445211020
100
nundo
1644807914875
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hsm8UZuXfpFbvRaY5yQ4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8060880595429744
will-i-have-200-m-by-the-end-of-feb
77
{"NO": 21.000000000000004, "YES": 36}
Will I have <=200 M$ by the end of February
1646035200000
5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 21, "YES": 36}
0
5.240818327734866
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644810091845
Em ✨
Not including additional purchases of M$ or investments in unresolved bets. I solemnly swear not to change my investment behavior to manipulate this market uwu Feb 15, 7:24pm: a bunch of investments don't return until the end of Feb and on reflection i have no idea how to count purchased M$ separately. Putting this at N/A
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 25.1006374560488, "YES": 51.176869778250406}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
0
1644982205055
100
hamnox
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0
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1
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0
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116607803}]
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0.8060880595429744
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8722035762908185
will-the-indoor-mask-mandate-in-san
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{"NO": 78, "YES": 235.06234522231344}
Will the indoor mask mandate in Santa Clara be dropped on or before March 18th?
1646251219065
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 78, "YES": 235}
0
4.763072665555748
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YES
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1644810398425
Mike Blume
All bay area counties but Santa Clara will be allowing their mask mandates to lapse February 18th, the question is when Santa Clara will follow suit. The mandate will be considered to be dropped even if non-vaccinated people are asked to mask. In case of ambiguity the core question will be "the policy change that happened in bay area counties apart from Santa Clara on February 18th, has basically-that happened in Santa Clara yet" Mar 2, 11:31am: Santa Clara county announced yesterday that they would move to recommending rather than requiring masks, effective March 2nd (today): https://covid19.sccgov.org/news-releases/pr-03-01-2022-indoor-mask-requirement-transitions-to-recommendation
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 111.91584338466114, "YES": 292.3756182059055}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646251219065
100
MichaelBlume
1644810398425
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3641524386776536
will-the-federal-mask-mandate-for-u
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{"NO": 214.8017318061548, "YES": 234.9652514430795}
Will the Federal mask mandate for US travel extend beyond March 18th?
1646938311739
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 215, "YES": 235}
0
4.720421514337853
True
play
YES
public
1644810633465
Mike Blume
https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2021/08/20/tsa-extends-face-mask-requirement-through-march-18-2022 "The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is extending the face mask requirement for individuals across all transportation networks throughout the United States, including at airports, onboard commercial aircraft, on over-the-road buses, and on commuter bus and rail systems through March 18, 2022." Question is whether the TSA will extend this order further. Mar 10, 10:50am: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/politics/travel-mask-mandate/index.html
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 358.6452158330461, "YES": 271.4126893056979}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1646938311739
100
MichaelBlume
1644810633465
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
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0
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0.3641524386776536
0.03372870999519372
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.03372870999519372
will-valinor-unfuck-its-backyard-ea
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{"NO": 465, "YES": 36.10701426600974}
Will Valinor unfuck its backyard eating area before the beginning of spring
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vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 465, "YES": 36}
0
4.710139225185657
True
play
NO
public
1644811150008
Mike Blume
Valinor has a table and chairs and umbrella in its backyard, the umbrella in particular got fucked pretty badly by a windstorm. Question resolves positively if the area has been unfucked and is suitable to have meals/tea parties/whatever in. Feb 13, 8:07pm: "is suitable" is, to state the obvious, a judgement call which I will be making personally
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 492.5846639537075, "YES": 92.03037976253563}
{"creatorFee": 1.4442805706403947, "platformFee": 0.3610701426600987, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}
0
1648942216291
100
MichaelBlume
1644811150008
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
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0
1
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0.03372870999519372
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{"NO": 415.0013196924999, "YES": 6189.703032935631}
0
will-the-mad-investor-chaos-thread
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{"NO": 175.73745056636244, "YES": 169.50407152387353}
Will the Mad Investor Chaos thread and all sequels/forks thereof complete by the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 180, "YES": 164}
0
1.1372481855757437
True
play
NO
public
1644811804837
tigrennatenn
Feb 13, 11:30pm: I made this resolve at the wrong time, I will resolve it as N/A unless they add the ability to edit resolve time before then. Feb 13, 11:45pm: "On indefinite hiatus" / "not intended to be completed or worked on further" will also make this resolve to YES. If it's not clear if they'll actually ever get back to it after 2022, I will resolve as N/A. Feb 14, 4:35pm: "Forks" only includes threads that are part of the same continuity. "What if this happened instead" doesn't count. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 255.23565391843675, "YES": 232.48045085136732}
{"creatorFee": 5.302916791922329, "platformFee": 0.3956400286190803, "liquidityFee": 2.3738401717144813}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1672629594972
762.3738401717145
tigrennatenn
1672611305301
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
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1650314813470
0
1
64
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["glowfic", "planecrash"]
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0.02
0.7499999999999999
ctLAuhhP4AJkVfN4KrHq
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7499999999999999
will-my-spouse-retire-by-sep-1-2027
80
{"NO": 20, "YES": 60}
Will my spouse retire by Sep 1, 20275
1645419540000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 20, "YES": 60}
0
5.098231799702289
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644811857596
tigrennatenn
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 40.00050000000001, "YES": 69.28289832815888}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
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1644811907696
100
tigrennatenn
1644811857596
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
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1715658452584
0
0.7499999999999999
0.7589940347770594
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{"NO": 3.752226529250317, "YES": 283.60302702371143}
0
will-my-spouse-retire-by-sep-1-2022
345.382171714579
{"NO": 33, "YES": 115}
Will my spouse retire by Sep 1, 2022?
1662004740000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 33, "YES": 115}
0
5.626974949224575
True
play
NO
public
1644811981333
tigrennatenn
Resolves to YES if he leaves his job with no plans for continued employment before this date. Feb 13, 11:28pm: I made this resolve at the wrong time, I will resolve it as N/A unless they add the ability to edit resolve time before then. Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 72.6571813398373, "YES": 128.93886148384436}
{"creatorFee": 2.599858284020995, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1662038022768
100
tigrennatenn
1661419314518
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
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1650314611155
0
1
9
1661419314444
1658987434564
0.04
0.08946498984138518
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{"NO": 104.75108379769773, "YES": 70.56628069981679}
0.12728831970901633
conditional-on-tower-writing-his-in
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{"NO": 355.3236754458264, "YES": 55.356237282961146}
Conditional on Tower writing his infamous conversion post by August, will it convert at least one person?
1659651023930
hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43
cpmm-1
{"NO": 358.7, "YES": 56.3}
0
8.187744288028663
True
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CANCEL
public
1644812046400
Alicorn
This market conditions on the YES resolution of https://manifold.markets/charlie/will-tower-write-his-infamous-conve and otherwise will resolve to N/A. If that condition is met, this market resolves YES if at least one person, directly (without an intermediary, including but not limited to Tower himself) makes it known to me or a person I strongly trust to accurately report the situation that they have gone from any non-Catholic belief system to Catholicism. This could be a comment on his post, a private remark to me, a post on Discord about it, a separate blog post, etc. Edge cases: - If an ostensible convert seems like a plausible sockpuppet, they don't count - If someone updates in favor of Catholicism but their overall probability remains too low for them to pursue formal conversion, they don't count - If someone is convinced of the factual claims of Catholicism, but not the moral claims, they don't count - If someone is convinced of some specific moral positions related to Tower's profession of Catholicism, but not of the underlying belief structure, they don't count - If someone converts on the basis of this post from even a very similar form of Christianity, such as an Orthodox branch, they do count - If someone announces an intention to formally convert and seems to me sincere in that announcement, but then changes their mind, they do count as long as that change of mind took at least 48 hours
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 392.0128707285809, "YES": 122.41209606442878}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009848857801796106, "YES": 0.00017320508075688773}
0
1659651023930
100.56045757895247
Alicorn
1659385002278
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.078299527137927
on-march-1st-the-science-community
4857.114987294723
{"NO": 1432.5810857918339, "YES": 496.3039269134438}
On March 1st, the Science community will have the most followers among the Manifold Markets communities.
1646121600000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1464, "YES": 425}
0
4.640705394693814
True
play
NO
public
1644812357062
SneakySly
This Market resolves to YES if on the day of closing, the Science community on Manifold Markets has *more* followers than any other community available from the list of communities here: https://manifold.markets/folds Feb 13, 8:19pm: Currently at the time of market creation, Science is the most followed community. Mar 1, 12:02am: Politics is currently 100 - 86, beating out Science. Resolving.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1851.8315073098559, "YES": 539.7418999341887}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646122166339
100
SneakySly
1644812357062
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
37
1715658636726
0
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529533307}]
["science-default"]
1646092479475
0.078299527137927
0.6904803031931382
xa0eXH9fDUnatGeAZThR
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6904803031931382
will-manifold-markets-implement-edi
3317.6621945184916
{"NO": 1351.4144974433052, "YES": 1256.9233080382032}
Will Manifold Markets implement editing resolve time of markets before Feb 20, 2022
1645419540000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1357, "YES": 1246}
0
4.634104784809258
True
play
YES
public
1644812975472
tigrennatenn
Pls Feb 14, 4:20pm: Will resolve as YES even if there are restrictions, e.g. "no editing after first bet is placed"
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1451.1361068854692, "YES": 2167.4028982803325}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}
0
1645416962482
100
tigrennatenn
1644812975472
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
27
1715658921261
0
1645416373765
0.6904803031931382
0.18756203027950677
jsQV5ivQGKYIkRuDbEke
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.18756203027950677
will-i-be-convinced-that-justin-tru
455
{"NO": 355, "YES": 100}
Will I be convinced that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son by March 1, 2022?
1646121600000
z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 355, "YES": 100}
0
4.7192726214519105
True
play
NO
public
1644813846272
TANSTAAFL
This is a market to test prediction market's ability to "predict the past", or discover information about events that have already occurred. Background: I am mostly convinced that Justin Trudeau is Fidel Castro's son based on pictures taken at similar ages, Pierre and Margaret Trudeau's closeness to Fidel, and Justin's admiration of Fidel. The de-bunking accounts depend on the claim that Pierre and Margaret did not meet Fidel until 1974, several years after Justin was born. There are opposite claims that they met with Fidel on their private honeymoon 9 months before Justin's birth. I am looking for convincing evidence either way. Please present evidence either way in this comment thread. This market will resolve YES if commenters can convince me that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son (ie Pierre's son), NO if I'm convinced that he IS Fidel Castro's son, and N/A if I'm moved towards NO but not convinced.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 410.11670290388076, "YES": 197.05379976100437}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1646153125314
100
TANSTAAFL
1644813846272
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c
17
1715658586434
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501977}, {"name": "Justin Trudeau", "slug": "justin-trudeau", "groupId": "1d0c1105-215b-465a-a218-d94a21148972", "createdTime": 1695922515911}]
["politics-default", "justin-trudeau"]
1644873261363
0.18756203027950677
0.615830860188416
Z6vac3dba6u7uRPds9AN
{"NO": 44.18999785746091, "YES": 224.3186094658702}
0
will-the-next-voc-have-equal-or-mor
2489.2267779958825
{"NO": 352.4971156540015, "YES": 688.2354610013157}
Will the next VOC have equal or more severe symptoms than omicron?
1672559940000
FsjurT0vl5fGfQCrFbH5sF3hvc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 350, "YES": 689}
0
2.880013461160869
True
play
NO
public
1644813871499
jmaa
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 599.2859983866388, "YES": 850.8717116672163}
{"creatorFee": 8.918261865356488, "platformFee": 0.1235740686194877, "liquidityFee": 0.7414444117169262}
{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}
0
1672593608421
120.74144441171693
jmaa
1710206841994
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjqKyA85T9AC-QalJy5dI1xJIlRUp2U6BNn2mZPTA=s96-c
33
1650314647088
0
1
31
[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]
["science-default", "covid-d7a9361d772d"]
1671241616927
1657174884138
0.24
0.28173313684996965
KD26X7OTNFEwo0qPbQNr
{"NO": 83.55061547336493, "YES": 290.69667815638263}
0
will-i-get-a-job-before-the-end-of
1232.4659671165043
{"NO": 131.6842123511232, "YES": 54.12132373752013}
Will I get a job before the end of 2022?
1672549140000
F4un9TGwviVjelWScLjU4ZR4LYG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 135, "YES": 45}
0
3.2051753134915084
True
play
NO
public
1644814205651
tigrennatenn
Resolves to YES if I start any part or full-time employment. One-off work contracts or similar don't count.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.307242961588, "YES": 103.50528306735735}
{"creatorFee": 0.41417061319536747, "platformFee": 0.03315787648876807, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1672584771295
120
tigrennatenn
1671241350146
0
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-0164e07765d3
16
1650314531826
0
1
17
1671241350004
0.1
0.1177333808292657
3ReWsBuaBvUSWeIrzp7f
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-jason-matheny-replace-eric-lan
101
{"NO": 90, "YES": 11}
Will Jason Matheny replace Eric Lander at OSTP?
1646128860000
kzTzAuoOi0ezsKFnwEtyktezUSJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 90, "YES": 11}
0
6.673074873776489
True
play
NO
public
1644814492261
Data Generating Process
This market resolves as Yes if Biden Jason Matheny succeeds Eric Lander to be the next head of the White House OSTP.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 94.86927848834944, "YES": 34.65576431273736}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1666827605219
100
datagenproc
1666827515378
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff9-7355abdcec6f
2
1650313787837
0
1
4
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529522254}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468583}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666827461100}]
["politics-default", "science-default", "please-resolve"]
1666827511020
0.1177333808292657
0.22
Z4FQ4zm4prj0YtuZN3xk
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.22
how-many-days-will-it-take-me-to-ge
45.608251584610336
{"NO": 23, "YES": 19.391748415389664}
How many days will it take me to get my first job offer?
1645419540000
iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 23, "YES": 20}
0
5.3878633246133
True
play
MKT
public
1644814834108
Kira
I am currently job-searching for my first position out of undergrad. I'm a CS/Econ major, looking primarily for software engineering positions in the SF Bay Area or remote. I think I'm objectively a pretty good but not stellar candidate. I've sent out applications to many places starting about a week ago, and heard back from several; my first technical interview is scheduled for Tuesday. This has to be a formal offer with a salary specified. Edge cases decided by whether I feel like the offer is consistent with the spirit of what I meant by "job offer" (i.e. personal whim). Insider trading by trying to get me hired actively encouraged. 0% is "I get a job offer February 14th" (not completely impossible! I have a call scheduled with someone who has hiring power), 100% is >100 days, so May 24th or later. Feb 14, 12:01am: *>= 100 days Feb 17, 3:09pm: I did not mean to schedule this to close on in a week, oops. I will resolve it as stated but it might take a while.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 27.19980694105713, "YES": 32.51639002994864}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1646777524727
100
Kira
1644814834108
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GixwqWH_R6AA2oVkIrPiUbLgPN9PqNXaH2S3OmDcg=s96-c
7
1715658333629
0
1
1645397836204
0.22
0.13916502378257894
JRT1g7tpwJICSi61wfJH
{"NO": 87.68119996321867, "YES": 239.44253689817737}
0
will-manifold-make-it-possible-to-f
501.79519229788525
{"NO": 145.26747744540992, "YES": 72.41665649040863}
Will Manifold make it possible to follow individual traders rather than just communities by the end of April?
1651388340000
hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43
cpmm-1
{"NO": 154, "YES": 67}
0
5.874005962962206
True
play
NO
public
1644815832865
Alicorn
This market resolves to YES if as of May 1 I can follow/friend/otherwise select an individual site user to follow for feed-curation purposes.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 201.93716449730232, "YES": 81.29083054960579}
{"creatorFee": 0.8826850541236995, "platformFee": 0.18695266626717022, "liquidityFee": 0.4046231671650553}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1651425751140
100.39294196415027
Alicorn
1644815832865
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c
24
1650313894951
0
1
1650673284761
0.055890469162438186
0.10561942595215114
XqE8KtXDbVYcCQWj405X
{"NO": 110.38655338893369, "YES": 1238.3323932498165}
0
if-russia-successfully-invades-ukra
6495.349619617248
{"NO": 2100.7655088855763, "YES": 382.4476382447949}
If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?
1672552740000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 2128, "YES": 382}
0
6.1932654002990155
True
play
NO
public
1644816422084
SG
Resolves YES 1. if Russia invades Ukraine, 2. that invasion results in the de facto annexation of substantial new territory before Jan 1, 2023 (e.g. the annexation of Donetsk would be sufficient; Russia must officially claim and occupy the new territory; UN recognition not required), and 3. China invades Taiwan before Jan 1, 2023. An "invasion" must include an overt military presence including but not limited to deployed infantry, aerial drone bombings, etc. Resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine, or if the invasion fails to create new substantial territorial gains which last for at least the remainder of the year.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2307.9903334714313, "YES": 916.260400274315}
{"creatorFee": 10.365823012249441, "platformFee": 0.6460168574356929, "liquidityFee": 2.310111276410452}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1672985776787
142.31011127641045
SG
1670985544712
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
69
1650314633971
0
2
65
[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1660934639152}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ", "slug": "pacific-rim", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qlbzTuOA4oc125E1ZoiB", "createdTime": 1659006734542}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950084253}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561094}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418743}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662316430157}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224479}]
["china", "world-default", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1670985544515
1662429924738
False
0.01
0.0309202389561297
a0ME4TsJberKPmpyfqVA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.0309202389561297
will-marginal-revolution-mention-ma
2170.1758028647378
{"NO": 1593, "YES": 267.01218392982764}
Will Marginal Revolution mention Manifold before April?
1648789140000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1593, "YES": 260}
0
4.641640050487994
True
play
NO
public
1644816823596
SG
Resolves YES if Manifold Markets is mentioned or linked to in at least one blog post at https://marginalrevolution.com/ before the start of April 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1831.0313676274925, "YES": 327.0675391367514}
{"creatorFee": 10.680487357193096, "platformFee": 2.670121839298274, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1648826583091
100
SG
1644816823596
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
31
1715658352984
0
1
0.0309202389561297
0.5368617407760121
AIKkk7VQF94p6xYiLJly
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5368617407760121
will-jay-shambaugh-become-the-next
115
{"NO": 55, "YES": 60}
Will Jay Shambaugh become the next Treasury Secretary for International Affairs?
1646121600000
kzTzAuoOi0ezsKFnwEtyktezUSJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 55, "YES": 60}
0
2.787740514928284
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644817515668
Data Generating Process
This market resolves as "Yes" if Shambaugh becomes the next person at that post, which is currently vacant: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/09/white-house-weighing-obama-adviser-for-treasury-00007386 Feb 13, 9:45pm: In general, I'm pretty excited about making forecasts for nominations/appointments: these nominations can be very impactful, but are generally less covered by traditional prediction markets.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 78.26308197675324, "YES": 84.26220980071672}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1671492336718
100
datagenproc
1666827863706
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff9-7355abdcec6f
3
1650313831565
0
1
5
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474795}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565725}]
["politics-default", "economics-default"]
1666827858256
0.54
0.6499999999999999
eRlvqRzkONBjcQfSPALw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6499999999999999
will-nextworldover-host-an-orgy-on
50
{"NO": 17.5, "YES": 32.5}
Will nextworldover host an orgy on or before April 1st
1645430340000
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 17.5, "YES": 32.5}
0
5.303295056474187
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644818784968
Mike Blume
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 29.58099052347639, "YES": 40.312094967267576}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1644818815878
100
MichaelBlume
1644818784968
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
1
1715658487016
0
0.6499999999999999
0.9118523274160603
MmT0v4nBnZskjZZ28LgK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9118523274160603
will-nextworldover-host-an-orgy-on-8f41430b1191
877.2836358487802
{"NO": 89.96894575471235, "YES": 306.74741839650744}
Will nextworldover host an orgy on or before April 1st
1647151671290
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 72, "YES": 303}
0
4.7336816189229625
True
play
YES
public
1644818867792
Mike Blume
Feb 23, 11:32pm: I would consider both "performing most of the organizational work for an event" and "providing a venue for an event" to be forms of "hosting". Therefore: if nextworldover organizes an orgy at some outside location, this market will resolve YES. If someone else organizes an orgy at nextworldover's home with nextworldover's consent and participation, this market will also resolve YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 117.78409102307181, "YES": 378.82921603403315}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1647151671290
100
MichaelBlume
1644818867792
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
14
1715658030271
0
1644861953438
0.9118523274160603
0.2257086320707278
KCbXpU5hp7ihB7BEdXdV
{"NO": 102.74705842180575, "YES": 371.5735817675037}
0
will-i-get-an-ee-rating-or-above-be
1211.8521928712087
{"NO": 47.75, "YES": 30.25}
Will I get an EE rating (or above) before the end of 2022
1672646340000
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 47.75, "YES": 30.25}
0
3.3191573798000387
True
play
NO
public
1644820668106
Mike Blume
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 66.36147602751163, "YES": 40.99159060648904}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007416198487095664, "YES": 0.000670820393249937}
0
1675367949136
140
MichaelBlume
1675441630665
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
9
1650314531579
0
7
8
1670512895859
1675441627578
0.07
0.2097592014449627
CwMLN23sTJczw3PQGRJi
{"NO": 67.07705425485835, "YES": 870.1865756622864}
0
will-i-be-doing-direct-work-on-ai-r
2437.1898839059477
{"NO": 94.24906506635992, "YES": 43.14608153120351}
Will I be doing direct work on AI Risk on January 1st 2023
1672646340000
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 96, "YES": 45}
0
3.8620327064126996
True
play
NO
public
1644820783848
Mike Blume
Market resolves to YES if eg I have accepted an offer but not started
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.027260479841, "YES": 70.33681030216616}
{"creatorFee": 2.7978646965984924, "platformFee": 0.08369453450831837, "liquidityFee": 0.39711111103150537}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1672701223150
120.3971111110315
MichaelBlume
1671561165045
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
18
1650313850698
0
1
17
1671561164872
1649562950835
0.02
0.956130076399428
loXIUDRdsnQhOa1p4j5D
{"NO": 999.2287404764013, "YES": 108.16551720936803}
1
will-i-put-1500-miles-on-my-bike-be
1632.5303027379305
{"NO": 7, "YES": 66.05860143145202}
Will I put 1500 miles on my bike before losing it or getting it stolen?
1665297734765
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 7, "YES": 64}
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1644821604341
Mike Blume
I think this morning the odometer on my bike showed 772 miles, this event resolves YES if it reaches 1500, NO if my bike gets lost or stolen, and N/A if the market expires without either of these occurring (I consider this unlikely)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 16.710727271001947, "YES": 71.12283005756183}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1665297734765
120
MichaelBlume
1665297783032
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
12
1650314742123
0
13
1664795640551
1665297775848
0.9950577795653895
0.5807801642076185
IjqF5KXVxSWUtsmKcnBF
{"NO": 768.3480839626822, "YES": 1411.0238819139988}
0.4300000000000001
will-a-democrat-win-the-white-house
18822.53225880939
{"NO": 196.87733136592317, "YES": 181}
Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024?
1737439140000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 200, "YES": 181}
0.1007186200517972
9.478678575152712
False
basic
public
1644821629903
Bolton Bailey
This market resolves to "Yes" if the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is a member of the Democratic party.
BINARY
{"day": -0.07037048657471062, "week": -0.07037048657471062, "month": -0.09994372129071855}
0
{"NO": 264.84103066249975, "YES": 269.53898010031736}
{"creatorFee": 17.37638195393773, "platformFee": 2.9563232700071644, "liquidityFee": 0.39005815200692084}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
163.17425723733896
1100.390058152007
BoltonBailey
1720165023539
1.5
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
1
88
1650313890749
1
33
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529480767}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1665573579252}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181865803}]
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]
0.1515456235434476
1720165020398
1689280614081
False
0.36354330917085226
63DCWcqi5Mg46GvA6m9o
{"NO": 64.41799351279087, "YES": 3489.591072355153}
0
will-ethereum-use-verkle-trees-by-t
6503.607188112395
{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 93}
"The Verge": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023?
1704088740000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 93}
0
2.621853856651546
True
play
NO
public
1644822331700
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if the mainnet L1 Ethereum protocol uses Verkle trees before the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 25, 10:09am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → \"The Verge\": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 54.77280347307411, "YES": 110.13258373751158}
{"creatorFee": 1.2742772221512002, "platformFee": 0.2123795370252001, "liquidityFee": 1.2742772221512002}
{"NO": 0.0005477225575051662, "YES": 0.0008366600265340755}
0
1704126281848
401.2742772221512
BoltonBailey
1704126282330
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
26
1650313804291
0
1
14
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1658679802189}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665695008154}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1683154016506}, {"name": "Blockchain Technology", "slug": "blockchain-technology", "groupId": "22d2a631-7306-45bf-ab26-2bdc6148bf41", "createdTime": 1695315561709}]
["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "blockchain-technology"]
1703794139539
1702389424675
0.01
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
0.21444082314935534
E0BrX49VbNR4NaJb7TMW
{"NO": 66.39806150926006, "YES": 2889.158448536149}
0
i-will-lose-a-personal-computing-de
2720.878059280203
{"NO": 89.34566812034308, "YES": 46.91613135516285}
I will lose a personal computing device in the next year
1676841844876
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 90.5, "YES": 49.5}
1.3679474322865643
True
play
NO
public
1644823911283
Mike Blume
Computer or phone, one of the ones I use on a daily basis, market resolves YES if I lose it and don't get it back Feb 14, 12:02am: Clarifying because of the word "personal" in the title: work laptop does count Apr 10, 8:26am: By "lose" I centrally mean "misplace" -- leave on BART or at a restaurant or on a park bench or on the roof of my car, or unsecured in my bike basket and someone walks off with it. Basically we're looking for ADHD failures here.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 111.55759627898198, "YES": 78.24610682556417}
{"creatorFee": 0.40245992017443943, "platformFee": 0.025838686448371534, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009219544457292888, "YES": 0.0003872983346207417}
0
1676841844876
160
MichaelBlume
1676830838552
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
20
1650313858545
0
19
1676830838412
1660846709525
0.01
0.9458333250213111
2o5givHjLa5iK8fSAZ2Y
{"NO": 199.9731954461629, "YES": 96.43615045722647}
1
will-liquicity-winter-spring-festiv
2454
{"NO": 225, "YES": 2129}
Will Liquicity winter spring festival take place on 30 April 2022?
1651410000000
NyGBnBJJcodNjXoevccTJHM37Oz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 225, "YES": 2129}
0
9.311340339829759
True
play
YES
public
1644824073072
Ben ten Berge
With measures or not, taking place == taking place. But it has to be on the currently planned date (location may differ).
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 548.0879947602848, "YES": 2289.305627914423}
{"creatorFee": 0.16082732302287783, "platformFee": 0.026804553837146305, "liquidityFee": 0.16082732302287783}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1651470601844
100.16082732302287
BentenBerge
1644824073072
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1oaFrKp-u4FQE6vfIUhedWipPhB-kXrW880I4xyY=s96-c
6
1650313783150
0
1
1651400907965
0.9731246506070118
0.4504017156480501
Cl00UvgbJbzO8OvAkRea
{"NO": 116.55661886974436, "YES": 680.2103494535468}
0
will-vienna-teng-be-invited-to-a-ba
1213.202961778477
{"NO": 70, "YES": 77.77515337125226}
Will Vienna Teng be invited to a Bay Area Secular Solstice by the end of 2023?
1701417600000
hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 80}
9.234575511739943e-16
1.5122914307040183
True
play
NO
public
1644824271241
Jacob
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a guest, not as a performer. Invited but turns down the invite still resolves to YES. Close date updated to 2023-12-01 12:00 am. Resolves Jan. 1st.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023/10/09 EDIT: Invite has to be from someone who can credibly offer 'if you come you'll be welcome', which in practice means the organizing team, probably the primary organizers but possibly the choir director or similar.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 83.6668393134341, "YES": 121.80989904151416}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
0
1703039104739
300
JiSK
1702869724076
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800
16
1650313848618
0
4
8
[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1693889092263}, {"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1693889098403}]
["sf-bay-rationalists", "sf-events"]
0.12320923436027836
1697234720385
1702869723313
0.12
hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2
0.6258167414244501
BHusnrVJDkkeq3Lz1cG0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6258167414244501
testen-mathilda-simon-dirk-of-ben-p
1530
{"NO": 867.5, "YES": 662.5}
Testen Mathilda, Simon, Dirk of Ben positief voor corona vóór 1 april?
1647689542540
NyGBnBJJcodNjXoevccTJHM37Oz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 867.5, "YES": 662.5}
0
4.647267269441397
True
play
YES
public
1644825777054
Ben ten Berge
Zelftest of PCR.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 935.9095762949806, "YES": 1210.3620635992977}
{"creatorFee": 34.7, "platformFee": 8.675, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}
0
1647689542540
100
BentenBerge
1644825777054
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1oaFrKp-u4FQE6vfIUhedWipPhB-kXrW880I4xyY=s96-c
6
1715657729608
0
1645117795123
0.6258167414244501
0.3305791134433441
URht1vo1XToXAxBrIPlA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3305791134433441
is-iemand-toevallig-van-plan-om-geb
110
{"NO": 70, "YES": 40}
Is iemand toevallig van plan om gebruik te maken van de valentijnskorting bij stekjesenzo, want zij hebben een plantenspuit die ik wil en ik wil als een parasiet meeliften op de verzendkosten?
1645484340000
NyGBnBJJcodNjXoevccTJHM37Oz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 40}
0
4.988396119230901
True
play
NO
public
1644830668779
Ben ten Berge
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 90.00077777775034, "YES": 63.24618565889963}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1644906467654
100
BentenBerge
1644830668779
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1oaFrKp-u4FQE6vfIUhedWipPhB-kXrW880I4xyY=s96-c
2
1715658226435
0
0.3305791134433441
0.7371184406496332
YO8IFFaESuiMxib3nh6k
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7371184406496332
will-i-go-swim-in-a-lake-on-both-re
250.95868623423206
{"NO": 75, "YES": 126.04131376576794}
Will I go swim in a lake on both remaining weekends in February?
1646042340000
EedkjPYME3ZR00OwYRtZ2z0VPvR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 75, "YES": 130}
0
4.836732384602996
True
play
YES
public
1644832879892
Emanuel Rylke
I did this last weekend and on most weekends since October last year but not on weekend before last. Feb 20, 6:18pm: Went swimming today. First hurdle of two is cleared. Feb 27, 8:44pm: went swimming for a second time
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 103.07836824717394, "YES": 172.60608889547754}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645991122973
100
EmanuelRylke
1644832879892
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c
6
1715658318397
0
1645209683651
0.7371184406496332
0.04342810452679104
RBd9bc49AsFzK6OXsLEP
{"NO": 463.2059494785266, "YES": 3897.2844957763086}
0
will-ethereum-merge-to-proofofstake
322556.4848841235
{"NO": 4337.313481963059, "YES": 1009.5702791170238}
Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by July?
1656691140000
pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 4590, "YES": 646}
0
4.527570627259773
True
play
NO
public
1644841966372
Pepe
This resolves according to https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022 . Quoting them: This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake. If the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve "No". Note, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 5155.409220929797, "YES": 1418.0734864676206}
{"creatorFee": 13.223390980048816, "platformFee": 1.1823044818682134, "liquidityFee": 5.831734716809599}
{"NO": 0.0007280109889280518, "YES": 0.0006855654600401045}
0
1656881237799
506.4074438123347
Pepe
1656672927794
0
https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b
98
1650314587452
0
1
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529569986}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665695008157}]
["economics-default", "ethereum-roadmap"]
1656672927637
1656542615819
0.005366957538896726
0.026732326508085987
AIVDv8H0G0NVP2cGNf4h
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.026732326508085987
will-the-new-york-times-be-found-li
316.18798196283404
{"NO": 276, "YES": 29.812018037165956}
Will the New York Times be found liable in the Sarah Palin libel trial? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/business/sarah-palin-new-york-times.html
1648871940000
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 276, "YES": 25}
0
4.766322611643227
True
play
NO
public
1644843008984
Ken Michaels
This market resolves to YES if the jury returns a result of liability against the NY Times Resolution is by April 1, 2022 Feb 15, 2:42pm: RESOLVED NO -- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/business/media/sarah-palin-new-york-times-jurors.html
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 301.69778255855647, "YES": 50.0005}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008660254037844386, "YES": 0.0005}
0
1644954171790
100
kenmichaels
1644843008984
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
6
1715657696879
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474864}]
["politics-default"]
0.026732326508085987
0.8353961112925217
aXa88hyBfQ25UdAVr7Tw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8353961112925217
will-tsla-close-at-or-over-87500-on
483
{"NO": 117.8, "YES": 365.2}
Will TSLA close at or over $875.00 on February 14, 2022?
1644868800000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 117.8, "YES": 365.2}
0
4.713528078852019
True
play
YES
public
1644844553820
Predictor 🔥
This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over $875.00 at 4pm ET market close. Does not include after-hours trading. Use close price listed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 195.96029087598333, "YES": 441.46294340612553}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1644874097805
100
Predictor
1644844553820
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
5
1715658376676
0
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425473}]
["wall-street-bets"]
0.8353961112925217
0.6552862892079674
jAtQZtZZSDpzmxm0JPKG
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6552862892079674
will-power-of-the-dog-win-best-pict
9122.65561682138
{"NO": 1462.731303257267, "YES": 1703.3918290101296}
Will Power of the Dog win Best Picture at the Oscars?
1648439104593
I25d6fKoaYP4w7xKTNopeOBRIrv2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1529, "YES": 1880}
0
4.630786842374693
True
play
NO
public
1644846559736
ben truitt
Close date updated to 2022-03-28 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1858.9050907138592, "YES": 2562.969739314939}
{"creatorFee": 68.2453426833876, "platformFee": 17.0613356708469, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1648439104593
100
bentruitt
1644846559736
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg7OWK3UzVLaCrYulzUEHiQ2WX98iHN61XOLzqjhA=s96-c
38
1715658567065
0
1
1648430121325
0.6552862892079674
0.1569630291088266
JCGG3RpSckwh9o3p2u2p
{"NO": 134.16071282533483, "YES": 1500.2715712110733}
0
will-roger-federer-win-another-gran
9372.586892264568
{"NO": 100, "YES": 30}
Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam event before retirement?
1676480400000
UjtWBCvn8sYsy7ooq20fR3sb4vm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 30}
3.6241103184000316
True
play
NO
public
1644847174178
Randy S
Fed wins a Slam in the next twelve (12) months.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 107.23898545258623, "YES": 73.48510053133221}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1676744010452
220
RandyS
1676744002311
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgRR_0UdIndK3IDnv-UoKcjYhFPmtAFcdz4mquNgMk=s96-c
13
1650313892672
0
1
13
[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1672892233745}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1672892923384}]
["free-money", "please-resolve"]
1676473824605
1676743997954
0.02
0.1328615513372663
f9PFOXkIFn96p1r1SZXS
{"NO": 982.2061849358726, "YES": 1101.5397012634912}
0.12019826530849347
will-octopuses-be-the-first-species
1002.638201184719
{"NO": 184.93486181118055, "YES": 40.97630930192037}
Will octopuses be the first species we uplift?
2210162640000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 198, "YES": 33}
0
9.80285942984587
False
basic
public
1644847569315
Duncn
Will octopuses (of any species, but order Octopoda -- so not squid) be the first species to be legally recognized as a person by the USA or EU based on an increase in cognitive ability from it's natural baseline.
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.005729881151719227, "month": -0.02795743102439023}
0
{"NO": 215.60152975958448, "YES": 67.47065600957218}
{"creatorFee": 2.654647381866618, "platformFee": 0.4216553299253897, "liquidityFee": 0.006654042111889924}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1000
Duncn
1719738914569
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
3
50
1650314697404
1
37
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531810}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1671762999170}]
["science-default", "futurism"]
1719738911432
1715633934485
0.3158197720500426
oFXHGEQhqgdu2mTfwk2W
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3158197720500426
will-i-be-offered-the-a-spot-as-an
151
{"NO": 100, "YES": 51}
Will I be offered the a spot as an undergraduate research volunteer in the lab position I've been interviewing for?
1645509540000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 51}
0
4.900322635407134
True
play
NO
public
1644852388195
Annie L.
Feb 14, 9:26am: I'm in a class that requires I put together some sort of research presentation, ideally a proposal where I can apply for grant funding. Recently, I interviewed with a lab that has strong overlap with my interests. If I get the position, I will be able to create a presentation for the class based on their research projects (not presented as my own work obviously). If I do not get the position, I'll have to BS something independent without external support (which is what I've been doing anyway). The primary deciding factors are the number of people being interviewed for positions (unclear), the number of positions available (unclear but likely more than one), how qualified they see me as (unclear), and my availability in the upcoming quarter (slightly crammed but potentially flexible).
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 124.90076060857277, "YES": 84.85930709356518}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1645906894844
100
AnnieL
1644852388195
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
4
1715658675669
0
1
0.3158197720500426
0.6635237019733708
rJ6P8WxcKRksjRoFKrFg
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6635237019733708
will-i-continue-to-be-flexitarian-u
104.01016989993123
{"NO": 35, "YES": 66.98983010006877}
Will I continue to be flexitarian until 3/19/22?
1647752340000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 35, "YES": 67}
0
5.012451648451356
True
play
NO
public
1644853127543
Annie L.
I recently became flexitarian (attempt to eat meat no more than twice per week, with the exception of accidents on my part or the person serving me food's part.) Will I keep this up until 3/19/22? Feb 14, 10:29am: it will not count as YES if I exceed the rate of 2x per week, even if I change the definition.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 59.161389438974474, "YES": 83.0786339810128}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1645819686121
100
AnnieL
1644853127543
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
3
1715658768213
0
1644855787732
0.6635237019733708
0.8
R1GQfQnyOPOpUCyVrmzF
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8
will-i-drink-tea-before-11am-today
25
{"NO": 4.999999999999999, "YES": 20}
Will I drink tea before 11am today?
1644858000000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 4.999999999999999, "YES": 20}
0
5.700548750959896
True
play
YES
public
1644853314791
Annie L.
I drink tea more days than not and want to drink it before my first event of the day, but I am a bit short on time.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 11.18078710109445, "YES": 22.361574202188898}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1644856233379
100
AnnieL
1644853314791
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
1
1715658158823
0
0.8
0.5000000000000001
HxC2412MmlRZ6y5HKsHt
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5000000000000001
ajax-will-beat-benfica-in-the-champ
200
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
Ajax will beat Benfica in the Champions League match on 23-02-2021.
1645652700000
YPJyiMlQU3caiL8EUWSZNduoYCJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
4.8377641951088215
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644853333168
Bart
This market resolves to YES if Ajax wins this match, and to NO in case of a draw or a loss. Feb 14, 4:49pm: Resolved N/A because I put the wrong date in the title.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.42206334409067, "YES": 141.4220633440907}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644853812357
100
Bart
1644853333168
0
https://firebasestorage.…47a-75749ab28c74
1
1715657895349
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400103}]
["sports-default"]
0.5000000000000001
0.09837088789515684
ORUT6dR4rLX5oYpahcz8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09837088789515684
will-i-be-sent-a-video-im-expecting
393
{"NO": 243, "YES": 50}
Will I be sent a video I'm expecting by this Wednesday?
1645077540000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 243, "YES": 50}
0
4.772429493290205
True
play
NO
public
1644854168515
Annie L.
2/14/22: There is no particular deadline. The previous thing I was sent took around two weeks, and it's currently been 5 days.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 278.21661704623256, "YES": 91.897225204845}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}
0
1645082419391
100
AnnieL
1644854168515
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
11
1715658080268
0
0.09837088789515684
0.08304295975018286
rEhGmUrczvlKfcZZmYwV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.08304295975018286
will-hamnox-start-a-group-to-collec
203
{"NO": 175, "YES": 26}
Will @hamnox start a group to collect markets that incentivize people to make otherwise unlikely outcomes happen.
1645516740000
J1cpQN9mk3clUf3qdTdCbFpyKCj2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 175, "YES": 26}
0
4.836773138362711
True
play
NO
public
1644854553056
Rohit Ramesh
Due to hamnox's discord post "I kinda want to start a group to mark perverse markets that obviously incentivize someone to go out and cause a counter-factually unlikely outcome to happen." Resolves to yes in one week if said group is created.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 192.47428399861627, "YES": 57.92281070718167}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008831760866327847, "YES": 0.000469041575982343}
0
1645585948609
100
RohitRamesh
1644854553056
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhTNIg_IR6z53ZbHUx_oHu6MIkof5Vv0BVjBsjXKg=s96-c
6
1715658765109
0
1
1644863958706
0.08304295975018286
0.6833625287487141
z513EdC0ZiN6OIj3gsPT
{"NO": 56.80958011446211, "YES": 134.31536584776546}
0
will-i-have-a-significant-other-6-m
708.6652291860901
{"NO": 165.49999999999997, "YES": 213.5}
Will I have a significant other 6 months from now?
1660539540000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 165.5, "YES": 213.5}
0
3.243240371740976
True
play
NO
public
1644854638246
Annie L.
Relevant details: I am... -a 20-year-old woman -student -have a history of asking people out if I REALLY like them (with success rate of around 20-30%) -tend to REALLY like people at a rate of approximately 1-4x per year -am not actively looking (going on casual dates; using dating apps, etc) -with a recent breakup, so holding off for at least a month
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 211.6467127091985, "YES": 314.40010655276507}
{"creatorFee": 4.767651304914626, "platformFee": 0.19563706073029177, "liquidityFee": 1.1738223643817507}
{"NO": 0.0007810249675906654, "YES": 0.0006244997998398398}
0
1660540801799
101.17382236438175
AnnieL
1660538200686
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
15
1650315039234
0
1
1660538197799
0.47721141812055606
0.4408184256284884
qsBjzAG9KY5HLZT45KRE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4408184256284884
will-wolffy-come-to-visit-the-bay-i
70
{"NO": 34, "YES": 36}
Will Wolffy come to visit the Bay in 2022?
1645516740000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 34, "YES": 36}
0
5.1511516743779335
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644856252915
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if Wolffy, who lives in Australia, has come to visit the bay by the end of 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 52.345658849612356, "YES": 46.47657475115824}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1644859770993
100
ozymandias272
1644856252915
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
2
1715658750929
0
0.4408184256284884
0.8772886839577799
e6SIEnxnLDnQdKW8QRG6
{"NO": 237.24483444500692, "YES": 128.6063787953971}
0.9295198982961236
will-i-be-alive-through-2052
271.3345803454134
{"NO": 9.000000000000004, "YES": 106}
Will I be alive through 2052?
2619323940000
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.000000000000004, "YES": 106}
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1644856352678
Annie L.
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"NO": 39.05147884574928, "YES": 108.16751823426476}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0002000000000000001, "YES": 0.0009797958971132711}
0
140
AnnieL
1697772088506
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
7
1650314687070
0
6
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733556575}]
["ancient-markets"]
1697772087949
1683643423971
0.2800000000000001
Ag1kONCzwRBVLVwZiAs0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-my-friend-be-elected-student-b
100
{"NO": 72, "YES": 28.000000000000004}
Will my friend be elected student body president by summer of 2023?
1652475861455
lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 72, "YES": 28.000000000000004}
0
3.438230062301316
True
play
NO
public
1644856458857
Annie L.
The specific person I’m thinking of, not just any person who happens to be my friend
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 84.85366227052313, "YES": 52.915555371554035}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000848528137423857, "YES": 0.0005291502622129182}
0
1652475861455
100
AnnieL
1644856458857
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjDggXSLOCVb2Xi1tHiuS-brx6hWMndw5c8r-Nu=s96-c
1
1650313834906
0
0.2800000000000001
0.05202984122732998
eYK3iTm3AjL3ulgkpI7l
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05202984122732998
will-paxlovid-be-available-to-all-a
310
{"NO": 260, "YES": 50}
Will Paxlovid be available to all adults in the UK by the end of March 2022?
1648681140000
mW4jen6pHfgQGSqpLXdN2gqAuLS2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 260, "YES": 50}
0
4.764428125507257
True
play
NO
public
1644856840611
RTLH
This market resolves to yes if on March 31st 2022 any adult in the UK with a positive COVID test can get an NHS prescription for Paxlovid.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 301.8286268737609, "YES": 70.71138522543595}
{"creatorFee": 1.9999999999999984, "platformFee": 0.4999999999999996, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1648709039194
100
rtlh
1644856840611
0
https://firebasestorage.…d32-b504ebd58904
11
1715658489842
0
1
0.05202984122732998
0.95
SZnY24GBPedcN1zYUS2s
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.95
on-april-17-2022-will-the-world-pop
25
{"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75}
On April 17, 2022, will the world population be larger than 4 billion?
1645138740000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1.250000000000001, "YES": 23.75}
0
5.700548750959896
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644857577965
jskf
Market will resolve to YES if at least 4 billion people appear to be alive on on April 17th, 2020, 11:59 CET.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 5.590393550547223, "YES": 24.367960541456892}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}
0
1644857592923
100
jskf
1644857577965
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
1
1715658191749
0
0.95
0.9937800364687303
hs849jFRltoc86e7xPDX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
on-april-17-2022-will-the-world-pop-2d287caad835
1342.1904704992571
{"NO": 8.25, "YES": 1271.5595295007429}
On April 17, 2022, will the world population be larger than 4 billion?
1650221940000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 8.25, "YES": 1271.75}
0
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1644857684179
jskf
Market will resolve to YES if at least 4 billion people appear to be alive on on April 17th, 2020, 08:59 CET. Feb 14, 6:08pm: 2022, as in the title*
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 100.93449120077052, "YES": 1275.8241336120793}
{"creatorFee": 0.003432017960517442, "platformFee": 0.0008580044901293605, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00022360679774997909, "YES": 0.0009746794344808964}
0
1650388227017
100
jskf
1644857684179
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
31
1650314718825
0
1
1644873129198
0.9937800364687303
0.7354734761201093
uwuaoCq3NKYgtPleGXkP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
conditional-on-the-world-population
178.71192559971837
{"NO": 54.75, "YES": 104.53807440028163}
Conditional on the world population being larger than 4 billion, will I get out of bed before 9 am on April 17, 2022?
1650232740000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 54.75, "YES": 98.25}
0
3.562781766367385
True
play
NO
public
1644857830688
jskf
This market resolves to YES if I am awake and outside my bedroom 3 hours before market close. I will not place any new bets on this market myself. If the world population is below 4 billion, market will resolve N/A.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 81.9257830613266, "YES": 136.60591236504703}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005916079783099616, "YES": 0.000806225774829855}
0
1650388292025
100
jskf
1644857830688
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
13
1650314798522
0
1
1649352225231
0.7354734761201093
0.9622624643194038
J894YsB1YgvoNZq3AAUE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9622624643194038
will-dave-and-kait-still-be-togethe
368
{"NO": 50, "YES": 314}
Will Dave and Kait still be together by april 4th?
1649080612461
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 314}
0
4.74366660902976
True
play
YES
public
1644858565752
Ian Philips
This market resolves to yes if they're still together by april 4th 11:59pm or no if they're separated then.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 357.0666996521798}
{"creatorFee": 2, "platformFee": 0.5, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1649080612461
100
ian
1644858565752
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
4
1715657929021
0
1651264458001
0.9622624643194038
0.5319676562299995
RDJLU227970NOIjnsXdb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5319676562299995
will-joe-have-a-girlfriend-by-april
1821.7440624276799
{"NO": 1070.6242434166336, "YES": 689.6316941556865}
Will Joe have a girlfriend by April 1st?
1646668021245
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1071, "YES": 690}
0
4.643121677493491
True
play
MKT
public
1644858706650
Ian Philips
This market resolves to yes if he's in a relationship with someone and no if otherwise. F*ck buddies don't count.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1205.019744418627, "YES": 1283.13362586784}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1646668021245
100
ian
1644858706650
0
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0
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ByypwmktXYn4ZWXXVoeJ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6560555355189477
will-one-of-the-4-of-us-vomit-on-ou
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{"NO": 75, "YES": 104.26976384781815}
Will one of the 4 of us vomit on our mexico trip?
1646031540000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 75, "YES": 106}
0
4.860520144749616
True
play
YES
public
1644858907191
Ian Philips
If any one of us vomits between feb 14th-feb 27th in Mexico the market resolves to yes, otherwise it will be no if we make it through the whole trip without vomiting.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 105.13652803947653, "YES": 145.204398150967}
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1645557049346
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-my-food-arrive-within-40-minut
10
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
Will my food arrive within 40 minutes?
1644865140000
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 5, "YES": 5}
0
6.366309919943205
True
play
NO
public
1644859604651
jskf
I just ordered it, and the order page says it will be delivered in 53 minutes. Feb 14, 7:11pm: It ended up taking 45 minutes.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 7.071774918646661, "YES": 7.071774918646661}
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1644862040862
100
jskf
1644859604651
0
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
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0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-i-get-into-a-long-term-relatio
111
{"NO": 80, "YES": 31}
Will I get into a long term relationship this year?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 80, "YES": 31}
0
4.985598291965444
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644859622424
Liam Scott
This market resolves yes if I or someone I am dating publicly announces that I am in a relationship on Facebook.
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 89.44361352718259, "YES": 65.73478531340922}
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1645538389999
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LiamScott1
1644859622424
0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-any-major-powerful-person-who
135
{"NO": 129, "YES": 6}
Will any major powerful person who was involved with Epstein see jail time?
1697239519905
EC0DVvMOQtcB3yWebKmOhgZ3B8u2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 129, "YES": 6}
0
8.556365462830396
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play
CANCEL
public
1644859675272
Joshua Lengfelder
Market closes on 2/21/2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 129.84705618915663, "YES": 36.946068803189334}
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{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}
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1703452728940
100
JoshuaLengfelder
1703452726048
0
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["politics-default", "please-resolve"]
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-i-get-a-job-this-year-in-progr
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{"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 85}
Will I get a job this year in programming?
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{"NO": 15.000000000000002, "YES": 85}
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1644859857036
Liam Scott
This market resolves yes if I get a job in tech, where the role is a front-end or back-end position where I either make or maintain software in a non-low code position (there are "programming jobs" that are low/no code involved. This market specifically refers to jobs where programming is the main role of the job itself. A paid internship counts. Feb 14, 11:30am: The market resolves yes if I actually accept the offer and announce that I am accepting the offer and taking the position.
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LiamScott1
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0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-i-move-out-of-mobile-this-year
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{"NO": 35, "YES": 65}
Will I move out of Mobile this year?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 35, "YES": 65}
0
5.018922567828004
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play
CANCEL
public
1644860052339
Liam Scott
The market resolves yes if I move out of Mobile. Moving out of Mobile means that the place where I live and work is not Mobile. This question specifically refers to really "moving away." As in, actually moving, not just moving slightly outside of mobile but still working in Mobile. Feb 14, 11:34am: I accidentally created this market and set it to end one year from now. The question refers to the end of this year. I will resolve this question yes or no on December 31st, 2022 11:59 PM.
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LiamScott1
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0
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0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4
will-episode-13-of-axrp-be-up-by-ma
100
{"NO": 60, "YES": 40}
Will episode 13 of AXRP be up by March 15?
1647327660000
yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 60, "YES": 40}
0
5.018922567828004
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play
CANCEL
public
1644860309776
Daniel Filan
AXRP = AI X-risk Research Podcast, axrp.net. Things I need to do before release: get someone to look over and fix rough transcript, listen to edit produced by new audio editor and decide if I like it, get new edit if I don't, record outro crediting new editor+current transcript guy, add sections+timestamps, write a summary. By = before that date starts. Feb 14, 9:22pm: Oh also: need to send audio+transcript to guest for approval, make any necessary edits. Feb 15, 4:06pm: No bites, so I'll free up my capital
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 77.46044152081758, "YES": 63.24618565889963}
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{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
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1644970022814
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DanielFilan
1644860309776
0
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{"NO": 89.44956304899252, "YES": 232.91302635396042}
0
on-june-1st-2022-will-i-be-required
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{"NO": 290.8773449587548, "YES": 66.17868265839246}
On June 1st 2022, will I be required to wear a mask inside UC Berkeley buildings?
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yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 295, "YES": 65}
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6.300631184489436
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NO
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1644860789409
Daniel Filan
I'm vaccinated with one booster. Feb 14, 9:58am: and will by default get a second booster once I can. Feb 22, 5:29pm: Oops, really should have set this to close later. Ah well. Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm Feb 22, 6:41pm: Looks like you can change this!
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1658425203715
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DanielFilan
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0
https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e
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{"NO": 100.35339804006206, "YES": 598.3978003698537}
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680.4630279354627
{"NO": 40, "YES": 118.39399795327554}
Conditional on making a public Hinge profile by April 1st, will I go on a second date with somebody I met on Hinge by Jan 1st 2023?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 119}
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1644861219173
Daniel Filan
Feb 20, 5:54pm: I have now made such a profile.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 63.24618565889962, "YES": 145.2201617414682}
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1672612994879
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DanielFilan
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0
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100
{"NO": 70, "YES": 30}
Will Carrick Flynn win the general election to become the US representative of OR-06?
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yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 30}
0
5.018922567828004
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1644861768022
Daniel Filan
Feb 14, 10:46am: oops missed that this already existed
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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DanielFilan
1644861768022
0
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will-someone-recommend-to-me-a-work
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Will someone recommend to me a work of fiction I end up reading and liking in the comments of this market by July 1st 2022?
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{"NO": 81, "YES": 185}
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1644862085087
Daniel Filan
Reading Dune last year warmed my heart and made me want to read more (broadly-defined) rationalist fiction, but any type will count. I tried Mad Investor Chaos but found it a bit off-putting. Will answer questions asked here as I see them. Feb 14, 10:08am: any genre counts, but has to be a long text form (no movies, no cute fictional sentences). I at least used to like EY's writing, but found his Mad Investor Chaos character annoying. I didn't mind the glowfic format. Feb 14, 10:36am: Graphic novels count. Have never read A Song For Two Voices. I find it hard to explicitly describe my aesthetic preferences, but here's a list of works of fiction I've enjoyed in the past few years: Y the Last Man, Heaven's Design Team, Too Like the Lightning (but not Seven Surrenders), Killing Commendatore. Things I didn't like: The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. Feb 14, 11:17am: I also liked Labyrinths by Borges. Feb 14, 11:45am: lintamande's parts of MIC were fine, but up to where I gave up, mostly responding to Eliezer's character, which makes it hard for me to guess how much I'd like something more driven by lintamande. Feb 15, 9:17am: Have read and enjoyed unsong. Feb 15, 1:47pm: I am unlikely to read a book that doesn't sound interesting to me based on a M$1 yes bet, and even less likely to read books that don't sound interesting to me recommended by people who are betting no. Feb 22, 5:29pm: Started Star Maker, would describe it as OK so far. Have "Star Wink" open in a tab, will presumably get around to it at some point.
BINARY
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DanielFilan
1656698689982
0
https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e
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0
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{"NO": 80.6166609251452, "YES": 109.71647964419324}
Will manifold markets add a way to view calibration histograms for users, tags, or folds?
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{"NO": 80, "YES": 110}
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1644862722654
Rohit Ramesh
This market resolves to yes if there is some way to view a histogram of "% at closing" vs. "% resolved to yes in bucket" for either a user's created markets, a user's participated markets, a tag, a fold, a search query, or the site as a whole. This does not apply if the histogram is generated by a third party, it must be on the manifold.markets site. This market will resolve early (to yes) if said feature is announced or appears on the site before April 30th, 2022. The market will not resolve to no before the indicated closing time. General thoughts: I expect that for larger groups this would quickly lead to very boring histograms as calibration errors are arbitraged out, but for smaller groups or individuals it could serve as way to find persistent biases. This could also serve as a useful mechanism to judge the quality of a user or community's judgement, especially if coupled with some indicator of bid volume (like a note showing how many markets or how much money is in each bucket.) Also, question for the crowd: Would weighting the buckets by market volume or by a user's bid size be meaningful? show useful additional information not captured by a raw-market-count histogram?
BINARY
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1701997686809
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RohitRamesh
1701997681850
0
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{"NO": 249, "YES": 32.123671283688225}
Will I be a Christian on Jan 1st 2023?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 249, "YES": 32}
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4.465059108168534
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NO
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1644863688054
Daniel Filan
I'm pretty sure the Christian God obviously doesn't exist, and have never been a Christian. But: I'm reading a bunch of books about Christianity (mostly Very Short Introductions), have attended church on both of the two most recent Sundays, and a large proportion of the youtube videos I watch are made by Christians about Christianity. Resolved according to how I describe myself on that day. Feb 14, 10:36am: Why consume a lot of Christian content? IDK sometimes you fall down a youtube rabbithole/gain a new special interest? I also think there's something appealing to me about "religions of the book" related to scholarship, and Christianity is the most relatable one. Feb 21, 2:40pm: I doubt that I would resolve to YES if I could only describe myself as a "cultural Christian".
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DanielFilan
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0
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490.77981573430515
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Will I host or attend an American vampiric watchparty in February?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 14, "YES": 235}
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YES
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1644865586251
Blazer
It's the second half of February, the time when I traditionally attempt to attune my soul vampireward by dressing cool and watching good musicals and their terrible translations. This event should have happened last year but it failed to get scheduled; I return with renewed strength of intention. This market resolves to YES if, before March 1st, 2022, I watch at least three songs from the musical *Dance of the Vampires* simultaneously with at least one other person who is located outside of my house. Watching *Tanz der Vampire* under similar circumstances does not fulfill these conditions.
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
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1645739844293
100
BlazingDarkness
1644865586251
0
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{"NO": 24.969323377713152, "YES": 255.18247188743968}
1
will-i-move-into-schoolprovided-hou
169.7214725405228
{"NO": 4, "YES": 10}
Will I move into school-provided housing in September 2022
1664607540000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 4, "YES": 10}
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3.518110227645296
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YES
public
1644867882433
Keller
In May 2021, I moved out of school-provided housing for renovations that they told us would be done by December. Deadlines crept and crept: in September 2021 they told us it would be available in mid to late March. In January 2022, I was told it should be sometime in April. In February 2022, I am told it will be available for people to move in on June 1. If it is available, and there is no mold or the like, I will move in. Will it be available in September? Resolves YES if I move into the apartment, or it is available for move in but my own plans result in a delay.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 8.888644446708396, "YES": 10.817578328812784}
{"creatorFee": 0.5390006530830936, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}
0
1664939783385
100
Celer
1664606259147
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c
9
1650314805518
0
1
10
1664606257751
1646279546643
0.12658076454150777
0.845686893955756
x0EtfihNUyxNJwEr3Ilz
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.845686893955756
what-is-the-chance-the-dl-seminar-w
965
{"NO": 260, "YES": 705}
What is the chance the DL seminar will be virtual next week too?
1645333140000
Adk1I662U0aZnuiEzYTfqYpxM8E3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 260, "YES": 705}
0
4.665610744996982
True
play
NO
public
1644868188274
Lars Kouwenhoven
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 379.07851429552164, "YES": 887.4268476897123}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645475202963
100
LarsKouwenhoven
1644868188274
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwICAlaBpPV2xhAWA2fhTvY7PuZGRoPEycgb7gk=s96-c
6
1715658898256
0
1
0.845686893955756
0.6518784550585068
IfiEBcYhwInQSLDukPZW
{"NO": 114.56840296417055, "YES": 95.00774658325217}
0.693071864222348
conditional-on-making-a-public-tind
465.2740286263194
{"NO": 144.5861345906302, "YES": 238.00000000000006}
Conditional on making a public Tinder profile by April 1st, will I go on a second date with somebody I met on Tinder by Jan 1st 2023?
1652294852036
yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 144, "YES": 238}
0
3.0281389208769243
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644868237491
Daniel Filan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 225.88791753818225, "YES": 308.78400908164315}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1652294852036
100.70280627243491
DanielFilan
1652379329717
0
https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e
20
1650313889788
0
1652294831324
1652379328439
0.6903249889065748
0.5442182053725764
kCY4yTqqzKzx96oa0yxE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5442182053725764
will-max-morawski-be-living-in-mary
107.00000000000001
{"NO": 45, "YES": 59.999999999999986}
Will Max Morawski be living in Maryland in 2023
1645516740000
fJCecpXNe4QwKRhyts8RQzmDoFB3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 45, "YES": 60}
0
2.794444065772516
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644869148127
Max Morawski
Feb 14, 9:48pm: Is there a way I can communicate using this? The reason there are two of these is that I couldn't figure out how to edit the market expiration date. Also I'm currently a California trying to move back to MD.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.88786920482234, "YES": 77.46044152081758}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1701231822936
100
MaxMorawski
1701231820507
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTAEoZ-9OlVEGKtL69hmVcSewfcC7BvrCkv-K9d7Q=s96-c
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1650314731255
0
1
4
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1695351598075}]
["please-resolve"]
1701231819804
0.54
0.8837033129235525
eNHZVdeuHicrjSuvLsFm
{"NO": 798.5881837972759, "YES": 114.4601549377933}
1
will-max-morawski-be-living-in-mary-2756c36119a7
2003.6248708670992
{"NO": 50, "YES": 148.80148810597473}
Will Max Morawski be living in Maryland in 2023
1704128336138
fJCecpXNe4QwKRhyts8RQzmDoFB3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
0
5.532603567188861
True
play
YES
public
1644869569133
Max Morawski
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 70.71138522543593, "YES": 185.80185487940162}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1704128336138
180
MaxMorawski
1704128336774
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTAEoZ-9OlVEGKtL69hmVcSewfcC7BvrCkv-K9d7Q=s96-c
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1650314689736
0
6
[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733557316}]
["ancient-markets"]
1704128105514
1704128328654
0.98
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.8566322136950804
QmBF82Uid2m7YE1ou9BL
{"NO": 110, "YES": 98.41752343665749}
1
will-isaac-report-his-happiness-at
215
{"NO": 45, "YES": 160}
Will Isaac report his happiness at Facebook as greater than his average happiness at Agathos after six months of working there.
1662101940000
fJCecpXNe4QwKRhyts8RQzmDoFB3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 45, "YES": 160}
0
5.645449086447721
True
play
YES
public
1644869722382
Max Morawski
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 77.6214532226755, "YES": 189.73750288385267}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1663278459993
100
MaxMorawski
1662099509486
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTAEoZ-9OlVEGKtL69hmVcSewfcC7BvrCkv-K9d7Q=s96-c
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1650314584281
0
1
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1662099508236
0.8697620950363916
0.09497363758421182
fFBPOiciOpajyFwqcmaG
{"NO": 58.82133728667873, "YES": 74.76754132680271}
0
will-i-get-together-with-the-girl-i
23503.071698701533
{"NO": 6990.705068793412, "YES": 1353.5986389713548}
Will I get together with the girl I made out with last weekend?
1653578195974
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 7225, "YES": 1342}
0
8.72572350239945
True
play
NO
public
1644870343256
Alex
This market resolves to "Yes" if we end up dating (using the words relationship, partner, or 'we are dating') before June 1. So, a few tentative get-to-know-you hangouts wouldn't count. She's a bit cooler than me, a bit kinder, and a bit older. Feb 14, 12:54pm: More details: she is 31, I'm 27 (m). We attend the same school as grad students. Feb 14, 12:54pm: Update: The market will be voided if she finds out about it. Feb 14, 1:35pm: I am currently obsessed with her Feb 14, 2:52pm: She is on a Valentine's date with another guy today... Feb 14, 2:47pm: ... But we are going on a hike on Wednesday Feb 14, 3:44pm: correct timestamp for the last comment Feb 14, 6:08pm: she's been slow to respond to my last few messages (6+ hours), but each have been enthusiastic with at least 1 emoji Feb 14, 6:08pm: her date is probably starting right around now Feb 14, 7:38pm: we both eat pizza along the outer edge Feb 15, 7:07am: pundits predict a volatile day of mid market stress eating Feb 15, 1:48pm: no messages exchanged today Feb 15, 5:53pm: Broke the silence with a message. Will probably regret that later. Feb 15, 5:54pm: response includes the phrase "I'm so confused." Feb 16, 8:25am: we met a few months ago when I was in a relationship. Apparently she had been crushing on me Feb 16, 1:12pm: investors anxiously await results of imminent hike + talk Feb 16, 3:05pm: she let me know that she has actually been seeing the Valentines guy for a while off and on. It was going too quickly after we first met so she broke it off, and now they are back together. That appears to be that. Feb 16, 3:30pm: we agreed that the problem is timing and she alluded to something happening down the road if it didn't work out with her guy. So I won't close the market, but I can't say it's looking good. Feb 16, 6:29pm: I feel Feb 23, 9:18am: sent her a last ditch love-email. That can't be a good sign Feb 23, 7:09pm: a different girl who I was really into a few months ago, one of the most attractive, smart, and kind people I know, confessed feelings for me to my sister. A few weeks ago I would have felt so much excitement, but right now only one person is on my mind Feb 24, 12:19pm: She responded to my email with a very thoughtful and kind let-down. So I'm on to other pastures. Feb 24, 6:04pm: We texted for most of today. I'm not going to pursue her, but I'm also not going to resolve the market until June. The world works in mysterious ways! Mar 15, 5:58pm: I am nearly finished reading a book she lent me. Debating telling her I'm done just in order to make contact, but I know I shouldn't Mar 19, 9:38am: I ran into her at a bar last night. She was with her boyfriend. I didn't say hi and she didn't look at me. He was looking happy. She, stoic. Mar 22, 8:01am: I'm dropping off a book she lent me today. Mar 22, 10:52am: I had been thinking of what I'd say to her for a long time, and when the moment came, she met me with her boyfriend and I couldn't say any of it, not even apologize. I'm moving on, ever so slowly. The book has been closed. Mar 27, 11:18am: I went camping with the girl who spoke to my sister. It went well and now we are going on a date Apr 5, 7:01pm: we had a text exchange where we agreed to be friends. I'm feeling very good about it. At this point, I don't want to mislead the shareholders that sustained me throughout this trying time. I appreciate it but I think it's not happening. May 2, 8:26pm: Things didn't play out as expected, but much better. I ended up forming a deep connection with the girl I went camping with. I have a feeling we will stay together. We're talking about marriage! Too soon, I know. Drastic. I am very happy. Life is strange!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 8059.655042029812, "YES": 2160.8752068337326}
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{"NO": 0.000714142842854285, "YES": 0.0007}
0
1653578195974
104.24004549199488
Alex
1653542475939
0
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
92
1650314697889
0
1653542474648
1651702797063
0.07626269032125213
0.03390269033964327
SqxwDESyfOwBCXhg9yoP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.03390269033964327
will-my-child-have-blonde-or-red-ha
868.8690850176863
{"NO": 654.2622763648499, "YES": 112.86863861746377}
Will my child have blonde or red hair?
1646434573515
Hs6Oyf3BvFhwk8dE6BFVEk5EJZD3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 656, "YES": 92}
0
4.678222429596869
True
play
NO
public
1644872451153
Burger
Resolves once he has hair, which might take a while. Ambiguous cases will be arbitrarily decided: probably I'll poll friends or something. Family info: I have dark brown hair, spouse has blonde hair. My parents both have brown hair. Maternal grandmother had red hair, and many of my paternal cousins have blonde hair. 1/4 of my paternal uncles has ambiguously blonde/brown hair.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 754.015871272471, "YES": 141.24956939278817}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.000806225774829855, "YES": 0.0005916079783099616}
0
1646434573515
100
burger
1644872451153
0
https://firebasestorage.…a5f-5708e6b776aa
14
1715658196205
0
1646247425529
0.03390269033964327
0.2237086818588102
YhKdXacv5zhgB6NOg1no
{"NO": 42.96767744000657, "YES": 365.92678866549016}
0
will-the-united-states-congress-vot
1033.7698829835022
{"NO": 183.23522092560563, "YES": 386.2038250783111}
Will the United States Congress vote on a congressional stock ban before the Midterm elections?
1667883600000
Hdc8SB2IwkTVp0looQhdRms2v2t1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 185, "YES": 390}
0
5.685038295767776
True
play
NO
public
1644872580739
Q
This market resolves to YES if a bill MAKES IT TO THE FLOOR (passing/failing is irrelevant) before November 8, 2022. Feb 14, 4:02pm: To be specific, floor of the Senate. Close date updated to 2022-11-08 12:00 am Feb 22, 8:49am: Whoops, I didn't set the closure date out correctly. It has been updated. Mar 3, 11:26am: https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-ban-house-hearing-trading-2022-2 interesting movement, and a step towards a vote, but not quite there yet. Going forward, I will be using the tracker here to officially determine if a vote has occurred: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3494
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 292.58962696422407, "YES": 488.5215206988113}
{"creatorFee": 6.8741141512930435, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007745966692414834, "YES": 0.0006324555320336759}
0
1667924063367
140
Q
1667880024221
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjlGnxt4LyYcwLFoh1eVIYzPSC78CE4NrnGFHnIpw=s96-c
23
1650314642578
0
1
22
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492825}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560739762}]
["politics-default", "us-legislation"]
1667880024077
1663340096126
0.03273054654549435
0.004468854852547757
JSZJM89Tm7oZwt9qaBWH
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.004468854852547757
will-the-favourite-victorine-win-th
91
{"NO": 87.3, "YES": 3.7}
Will the favourite, "Victorine" win this random horse race I picked
1645102740000
jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03
cpmm-1
{"NO": 87.3, "YES": 3.7}
0
5.051077399853886
True
play
NO
public
1644873364683
Undox
This race https://www.racenet.com.au/form-guide/horse-racing/wyong-20220215/all-races Win -> YES No Win -> NO Victorine Scratched -> NO Race Cancellation -> CANCEL MARKET (REFUND BETS) Race Postponed -> WAIT UNTIL RACE, IF AFTER THE MARKET CLOSE WILL REFUND BETS. Feb 15, 5:51pm: Ha ha lesson learned will close prior to race finish next time
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 90.79743719197145, "YES": 6.083370806551249}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007937253933193772, "YES": 0.000608276253029822}
0
1644907915596
100
Undox
1644873364683
0
https://firebasestorage.…f6f-c0c5cc16c70a
3
1715657937272
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529400257}]
["sports-default"]
0.004468854852547757
0.42
Ok2IDPeB5osoPwMXcXcH
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.42
how-many-twitter-followers-am-i-get
969.4305043342426
{"NO": 285.143235214434, "YES": 155.42626045132317}
How many Twitter followers am I getting in the next 7 days, after the ACX mention? (1% "probability" = 1 follower). Current follower count is 513. If I have ≥613 followers this resolves to 100%. If I have ≤513, it resolves to 0.
1645516740000
QpGjpncwYoOGKNhAhxCUWQ2eqOq2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 286, "YES": 155}
0
4.722503493234882
True
play
MKT
public
1644874532278
Gustavo Lacerda
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 317.33147753388243, "YES": 305.6191993598146}
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{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1645484518625
100
GustavoLacerda
1644874532278
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjR_r0ypbWKIiccnCVk1TbkoS3GQr2VxwiXOnRrzps=s96-c
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1715658088321
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1645433889169
0.42
0.014041384674676183
Fa0clyMngxiNiMJnU2wF
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.014041384674676183
will-russia-control-kyiv-as-of-apri
178597.2722341791
{"NO": 88440.6654542895, "YES": 8602.480069966434}
Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?
1648936800000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89614, "YES": 5507}
0
4.615635616236336
True
play
NO
public
1644875531579
Duncn
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 96359.42787510311, "YES": 11499.258537445381}
{"creatorFee": 322.6168525856021, "platformFee": 80.65421314640052, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1648989899909
100
Duncn
1644875531579
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
239
1715657846163
0
1
1648738484445
0.014041384674676183
0.19845866034422502
R8pQ3vXyXhOyxHrIcPr4
{"NO": 76.09439126529163, "YES": 344.0242303476364}
0
will-either-the-uk-or-the-eu-trigge
345.7558657059218
{"NO": 16, "YES": 4}
Will either the UK or the EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 June 2022
1654124340000
2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 16, "YES": 4}
0
4.546155940484257
True
play
NO
public
1644876141284
Giovanni
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 17.889438247189318, "YES": 8.94471912359466}
{"creatorFee": 1.3194236786505167, "platformFee": 0.21990394644175282, "liquidityFee": 1.3194236786505167}
{"NO": 0.0008944271909999159, "YES": 0.00044721359549995795}
0
1689722561345
101.31942367865051
Giovanni
1689722595369
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c
5
1650314586857
0
1
6
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1670031847337}]
["please-resolve"]
1654114975917
1689722593414
0.05
0.49999999999999994
Lkk3R4klddqkoUA9J5SU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.49999999999999994
will-liz-truss-be-foreign-secretary
20
{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}
Will Liz Truss be Foreign Secretary on 1 June 2022?
1654124340000
2GDxDZqoYbZdeXDkjSQjXMAzGyM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 10, "YES": 10}
0
5.8502737455136105
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644876330208
Giovanni
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 14.14284273051214, "YES": 14.142842730512138}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644891824098
100
Giovanni
1644876330208
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c
1
1715657986534
0
0.49999999999999994
0.38570402466194414
MRQ77zqcNMckA3WncW6J
{"NO": 141.5744496861928, "YES": 60.38291868928397}
0
will-wolffy-come-to-visit-the-bay-i-900543a55a0b
140.3309476476324
{"NO": 29.09446094909312, "YES": 22.18162388819905}
Will Wolffy come to visit the Bay in 2022?
1672559940000
B2f2IoLFCFXIPuDt4BeVcbnnTV22
cpmm-1
{"NO": 27.6, "YES": 23.4}
0
2.975601129340733
True
play
NO
public
1644876753578
Ozy Brennan
This market resolves to YES if Wolffy, who lives in Australia and is currently unemployed, has come to visit the Bay by the end of 2022. There are only vague plans at present, but they do have a place to stay.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 40.257826926088036, "YES": 31.759200251265774}
{"creatorFee": 1.3311201524406333, "platformFee": 0.1602490507716719, "liquidityFee": 0.9614943046300313}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1673112170143
100.96149430463004
ozymandias272
1668256880127
0
https://firebasestorage.…29a-6e21a61a272d
12
1650314550646
0
2
12
1668256879967
0.6
0.01
vLBsKS6sndYdbTSuJN01
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01
this-market-will-resolve-yes
150
{"NO": 49.5, "YES": 100.5}
This market will resolve yes.
1644877020000
lgjUw4JqQlVkInmqZ6yERL93sIA2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 49.5, "YES": 100.5}
0
4.90197002242149
True
play
YES
public
1644876944185
Yapa Glover
This market will resolve yes.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 49.7503668427681, "YES": 141.51042717768186}
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{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}
0
1644876979400
100
YapaGlover
1644876944185
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiT27GwJAup5_LxJNndRRXWxsdWkLF6_HG64m-BOQ=s96-c
2
1715658852348
0
0.01
0.6250020833177085
7rLKWLN0aYjYh5ukTUHu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
stevia-has-a-full-time-job-by-the-e
120
{"NO": 30, "YES": 90}
Stevia has a full time job by the end of 2022
1663278287514
fJCecpXNe4QwKRhyts8RQzmDoFB3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 30, "YES": 90}
0
2.957434542471339
True
play
YES
public
1644877072850
Max Morawski
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 73.4851005313322, "YES": 94.86927848834944}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}
0
1663278287514
100
MaxMorawski
1661418305724
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTAEoZ-9OlVEGKtL69hmVcSewfcC7BvrCkv-K9d7Q=s96-c
3
1650313814966
0
4
1661418305657
0.6250020833177085
0.09044222080811042
dIVXhAgrJXw5Ambz57ow
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09044222080811042
will-there-be-an-app-to-use-manifol
386.87333221527933
{"NO": 185.12666778472072, "YES": 50}
Will there be an app to use Manifold Markets that works on Android before March 1st?
1645615560000
iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 186, "YES": 50}
0
4.807556738309982
True
play
NO
public
1644881539985
Mr Stone
This markets resolves to yes if there's an app in the Play store, or an APK that is linked to from the official website. Close date updated to 2022-03-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-23 12:26 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 224.2429935524899, "YES": 70.71138522543595}
{"creatorFee": 1.9650667113888296, "platformFee": 0.4912666778472074, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1648829653624
100
stone
1644881539985
0
https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7
9
1715658460242
0
1
0.09044222080811042
0.01
Q0CU79k39HbeendoHPpm
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01
will-nato-invade-kaliningrad-in-202
10
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.1}
Will NATO invade Kaliningrad in 2022?
1672588800000
tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.1}
0
6.366309919943205
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644881670350
p_journal
This market resolves to YES if at any time before 1 January 2023 NATO or a NATO members' forces occupy any part of Kaliningrad. Will qualify hypotheticals as they are raised.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 9.950869358503306, "YES": 1.0001}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}
0
1644938767612
100
p_journal
1644881670350
0
https://firebasestorage.…fed-363fc7f45af2
1
1715658127693
0
0.01
0.01
TO3Xbw82KAj70271foCe
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.01
will-nato-invade-belarus-in-2022
10
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.1}
Will NATO invade Belarus in 2022?
1672588740000
tPSU6eCi0xglaTc0pqoEZ57lsu72
cpmm-1
{"NO": 9.9, "YES": 0.1}
0
6.366309919943205
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644881771783
p_journal
This market resolves to YES if at any time before 1 January 2023 NATO or a NATO members' forces occupy any part of Belarus. Will qualify hypotheticals as they are raised.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 9.950869358503306, "YES": 1.0001}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.00099498743710662, "YES": 0.0001}
0
1644938805316
100
p_journal
1644881771783
0
https://firebasestorage.…fed-363fc7f45af2
1
1715658204641
0
0.01
0.51
Fdp3zeDKgEZZrWsTGOqB
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.51
what-number-between-1-and-100-will
27
{"NO": 12, "YES": 15}
What number between 1 and 100 will I randomly generate?
1644901200000
xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 12, "YES": 15}
0
5.651188988695374
True
play
MKT
public
1644882361728
April
I'll load https://rolladie.net/roll-a-d100-die and resolve to whatever number it says.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 19.46853873561136, "YES": 18.70908871377759}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1644908033902
100
April
1644882361728
0
https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177
2
1715657851190
0
0.51
0.8502240563996406
fQZzVmWSxwKNBxWnKxY6
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8502240563996406
will-i-maintain-an-uninterrupted-du
330.5725661015373
{"NO": 22.422748901538455, "YES": 147.00468499692425}
Will I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 25, "YES": 145}
0
4.873045338463743
True
play
YES
public
1644884278086
John Beshir
I intend to maintain one, and know of no particular barriers to doing so. This is intended to be resolved on the basis of the "streak calendar" feature of the Duolingo app. Previous history is one one streak freeze used during Feburary 2022 to date, none during January 2022, five during December 2021, and three during November 2021. Feb 28, 6:18pm: Today's is done, and streak is complete 15th through 28th on the calendar, resolving YES.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 65.57032385371701, "YES": 156.22588403655914}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0003162277660168379, "YES": 0.0009486832980505138}
0
1646072379174
100
jbeshir
1644884278086
0
https://firebasestorage.…93c-41811dc09182
13
1715658503778
0
1645209390323
0.8502240563996406
0.2526209523487202
zWi9ruE81ng0QUUPa1Ug
{"NO": 789.4844255048745, "YES": 1785.8620840408312}
0
will-someone-train-a-1t-parameter-d
26586.640646645566
{"NO": 361.34800983194987, "YES": 472.5622710604567}
Will someone train a 1T parameter dense (non-sparsely activated mixture of experts) language model this year?
1672549140000
Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 367, "YES": 476}
0
0.4582416490444483
True
basic
NO
public
1644884802457
Stephen Malina
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a news report, paper, or blog post that I consider trustworthy reporting on a 1T parameter dense language model that was trained before January 1st, 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Jun 16, 10:15pm: Since there's been some confusion in the comments, I want to clarify that \"dense\" here is in contrast to sparse models like mixture-of-experts. I've clarified more in a comment below, from which I've copied the relevant snippet: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "> It's not \"transformer\" vs. not either though, it's specifically focused on the distinction between mixture of experts model (ex: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.06538) which are sparsely activated vs. dense models which use all their nodes for each forward pass.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: In the comments, Lauro Langosco di Langosco pointed out that it's possible we won't know as of the end of the year whether someone trained a model with 1T params in 2022 and just hadn't announced it yet. He also noted that the current phrasing of the question is very focused on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "trained", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " vs. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". Given that, my compromise here is to wait 3 months after the start of 2023 to resolve this rather than doing it right away. If noone announces something they trained with 1T parameters by then, I'll resolve \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT 2: Lauro pushed back on three months as being too short, so I'll wait another year to resolve.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT 3: After ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "further deliberation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/will-someone-train-a-1t-parameter-d#UBM5vVSYC45IaRJ8M0uz", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", I've decided to stick with 3 months after 01/01/2023 for resolution. Another clarification I wanted to make is I won't definitely resolve positively unless the 1T model seems at least competitive with existing SoTA models. As mentioned in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "comments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/will-someone-train-a-1t-parameter-d#3cdUGIPXu923sODeyDKs", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", if someone trains a 1T parameter dense model as good as say davinci-002 or something, I'll have to decide what I'm going to do. I don't think that's likely enough to pre-plan for though.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 12, 10:40am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will someone train a 1T parameter dense language model model this year?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will someone train a 1T parameter dense (non-sparsely activated mixture of experts) language model this year?", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 528.985811649274, "YES": 644.6565251925813}
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{"NO": 0.0009486832980505138, "YES": 0.00031622776601683794}
0
1680406262435
1040.003186180542
StephenMalina
1679486678206
0
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0
19
109
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664719883738}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529537004}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664719886262}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072353}]
["science-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "please-resolve"]
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0.13
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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this-market-predicts-itself-to-reso
526.9455548291704
{"NO": 79, "YES": 78.05444517082952}
This market predicts itself to resolve NO.
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 79, "YES": 76}
0
4.890741597314162
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YES
public
1644885996598
Arie Arie
This question will resolve YES if and only if the predicted propability of this market resolving YES is less than 50% at the end of the 20th of February.
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 115.91013535480216, "YES": 105.97760791713918}
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{"NO": 0.0007071067811865476, "YES": 0.0007071067811865476}
0
1645476018703
100
ArieArie
1644885996598
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhnfWhRsWe7iCr2d8sqTPUdxnyXjyNlnVw8Av4ryg=s96-c
10
1715657616080
0
1
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.007889410700077475
will-the-lowest-steam-price-for-tot
185
{"NO": 176, "YES": 9}
Will the lowest Steam price for Total War: Warhammer II in February 2022 be below $13.49?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 176, "YES": 9}
0
4.853775403704678
True
play
NO
public
1644886007135
Jacob
As measured by https://steampricehistory.com/app/594570, in US dollars.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 184.2697804869263, "YES": 16.43222444771249}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0008366600265340755, "YES": 0.0005477225575051661}
0
1646116101192
100
JiSK
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0
https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800
3
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0.007889410700077475
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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will-the-lowest-steam-price-for-tot-6f9330415413
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{"NO": 179.514775826459, "YES": 18}
Will the lowest Steam price for Total War: Warhammer II in February 2022 be below $14.99?
1646116077177
hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 180, "YES": 18}
0
4.840266169774748
True
play
NO
public
1644886080796
Jacob
As measured by https://steampricehistory.com/app/594570, in US dollars.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 196.1439412771345, "YES": 23.238674673913742}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0006324555320336759, "YES": 0.0007745966692414834}
0
1646116077177
100
JiSK
1644886080796
0
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1715657964087
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1644886404058
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{"NO": 209.9507834225372, "YES": 25.5}
Will the lowest Steam price for Total War: Warhammer II in February 2022 be below $19.99?
1646116095060
hb7vRFHUktPgLsWIbBqbNe33PAR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 210.5, "YES": 25.5}
0
4.807316247396267
True
play
NO
public
1644886473115
Jacob
As measured by https://steampricehistory.com/app/594570, in US dollars.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 233.44269385890698, "YES": 30.692849342314243}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0005, "YES": 0.0008660254037844386}
0
1646116095060
100
JiSK
1644886473115
0
https://firebasestorage.…349-af2fc0450800
4
1715657637416
0
0.016993015227221037
0.8
Q30bu8GQOLiZEJfvAb0j
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8
will-politico-show-labour-ahead-in
100
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80}
Will Politico show Labour ahead in the UK Parliament voting intention on 1 April 2022?
1648853940000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 80}
0
5.018922567828004
True
play
CANCEL
public
1644887925600
Giovanni
This market resolves to "YES" if this poll (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/) shows the Labour Party ahead on 1 April 2022 .
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 44.7218067635913, "YES": 89.44361352718259}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 0.0004472135954999579, "YES": 0.0008944271909999159}
0
1644959246363
100
Giovanni
1644887925600
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz7Lu6D3ZUsa6ZndTRqWucecHnqV4SwLqfKTmYU=s96-c
1
1715658132497
0
0.8