CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will this market close after an odd number of days? (1/2)

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cpmm-1

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Charles Lien

This market opened on July 3, 2022. Starting on July 4, 2022, at some undisclosed point between 12 AM and 11:59 PM (PDT), I will close the market with a 1/2 chance, and post a comment on the market if it is not closed. Example dates: If the market closes on July 4, 2022, it will resolve to YES. If the market closes o...

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Will this market close after an odd number of days? (1/4)

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Charles Lien

This market opened on July 3, 2022. Starting on July 4, 2022, at some undisclosed point between 12 AM and 11:59 PM (PDT), I will close the market with a 1/4 chance, and post a comment on the market if it is not closed. Example dates: If the market closes on July 4, 2022, it will resolve to YES. If the market closes o...

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CharlesLien

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Will this market close after an odd number of days? (3/4)

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Charles Lien

This market opened on July 3, 2022. Starting on July 4, 2022, at some undisclosed point between 12 AM and 11:59 PM (PDT), I will close the market with a 3/4 chance, and post a comment on the market if it is not closed. Example dates: If the market closes on July 4, 2022, it will resolve to YES. If the market closes o...

BINARY

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CharlesLien

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Will new challenge studies for at least two different SARS-CoV-2 strains be in progress by the end of 2023?

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Gavriel

Relevant links: 1) otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/open_orphan/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2484&newsid=1600562 2) www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/young-adults-are-volunteering-to-get-covid-19for-science? (In case the question phrasing is confusing, I’m asking whether both of the attempts mentioned in t...

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GavrielK

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at-close-how-many-viewers-will-the

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At close, how many viewers will the channel with the most current viewers have on Twitch?

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Jay

This will resolve to the number of viewers to the nearest hundred the channel with the most viewers has has on twitch as of the time I go to check it. This should resolve within 30 minutes of close.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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JacobIannelli

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will-manifold-add-a-penaltyfee-for

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Will Manifold add a penalty/fee for resolving a market N/A by 2023-07-01?

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Martin Randall

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MartinRandall

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["predictions-on-predictions"]

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Will Manifold fix the 'back' button in July?

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RoboTeddy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if Manifold fixes most of its current problems related to the 'back' button. This isn't a super precise definition. If I'm not actively annoyed by the back button behavior the way I am now, I'll resolve this to \"Y...

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TedSuzman

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By what margin will Lexington High School win in the 2022 National Science Bowl high school finals?

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Andrew G

Resolves to the margin reported by https://science.osti.gov/wdts/nsb/. LHS losing will correspondingly resolve to a negative number (unlikely). Resolves to N/A if Lexington High School does not make the finals (very unlikely)

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AndrewG

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How many unique bettors will this market get?

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Daniel Reeves

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Will Turkey have an economic collapse by 2024?

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Keepcalmandchill

Will resolve Yes if Turkey has a substantial economic crisis, such as >10% reduction in GDP in one year or hyperinflation (>1000% pa).

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["turkey", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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how-many-people-will-claim-the-atta

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How many people will claim the attached manalink?

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Franek Żak

https://manifold.markets/link/SCf2vMSN This link will allow you to claim 1 mana from me if you click it. It is valid 2 minutes longer than the question will be open. I will resolve to the number of times it will be claimed by the time it goes invalid. I commit to keeping enough mana in my wallet to keep the link claim...

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{"NO": 692.5200106205905, "YES": 14.440015951363936}

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Will I enjoy going to the Notifications tab in a month?

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Matt P

Currently, notifications have a bunch of issues: * They aren't very performant, so the tab takes a while to load * Detection of which notifications have been read/viewed is spotty, so often I'll leave the notifications page and the number of unread notifications won't have changed * Expanding/collapsing groups of notif...

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MattP

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["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

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Will it be possible to undo the resolution of a market by August?

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Jack

Resolves YES if by 8/31 it is possible for an author to undo a market resolution. Any capability to undo (even if it's just a few seconds) will count for the purposes of this market. People accidentally resolve markets incorrectly sometimes. I think it would be good if the author can undo the resolution of their marke...

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jack

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["predictions-on-predictions"]

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When will the next version of Counterspell Guesser be published? [July X]

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Austin

People really seemed to like Counterspell Guesser https://manifold.markets/Austin/how-many-upvotes-will-alex-and-idas -- the obvious next step is to release some variants! Ideas (stolen from https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/vqlfyz/comment/ieu3q2k/ ) - Lightning Bolt Guesser - Terror Guesser - Giant Growth G...

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Austin

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["gaming"]

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{"NO": 108.81404539591034, "YES": 82.39806086917456}

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How many people will come to my Rectifying of Maps event?

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Em ✨

Includes myself. Zero means that I never get around to hosting one at all before the deadline, so it couldn't even have me in attendance. ~*~ In my culture, we take updating when we notice an error in our thinking very seriously. We have a cultural toolkit for it. In those moments, we want the comfort of a familiar soc...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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hamnox

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{"NO": 599.9784287627411, "YES": 212.67951181556185}

0.92

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What will be the male ratio of Monkeypox cases from September 1st to September 7th?

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Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

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2.5458560279649727

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1656969118837

^,^ Épi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/andrewmvd/global-monkeypox-cases , the male ratio of Monkeypox' cases last week is 0.98 (1 non-male patients for 68 males).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...

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epiphanie_gedeon

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["monkeypox", "medicine"]

0.98

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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0

In what year will a chip fab in the US begin volume production of 3nm chips?

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cpmm-1

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CANCEL

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Byrne Hobart

I'll use news stories from major newspapers or wire services to resolve this.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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100

ByrneHobart

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529456601}]

["technology-default"]

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{"NO": 42.58378324576192, "YES": 234.83117839219273}

0

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Will the shareholder of this market with the most shares (in this market) hold a YES position?

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NO

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1656969926772

Charles Lien

Shares will be calculated using the Manifold API. See below for a link to the tool that I will be using to calculate the shares of each shareholder. (In the extremely unlikely event of a tie) Ties will be broken lexicographically. For example, if there are 3 shareholders of YES holding {10, 7, 2} shares, and there are...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.7862619880823924, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1656997193564

100

CharlesLien

1656997292535

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzE7GH_CbP5WGDzPodZ4CLlmZ_DCNYPC9lbZdeX=s96-c

5

0

0.5

1656997117738

1656997283396

0.5154939681190907

0.37298243453764857

SdNDkcenM6YAmhLhKXcH

{"NO": 105.04592406054144, "YES": 19736.338939661124}

0

will-a-us-semiconductor-fab-begin-v

20335.497572213448

Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips by 2024?

1704175140000

MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2

cpmm-1

0

1.3312537734534131

True

play

NO

public

1656970144798

Byrne Hobart

Will resolve based on public announcements of volume production. Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.67039168634085, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704204787532

800

ByrneHobart

1704204787806

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWRUkVKow5CE1qtRKVDnXQoCE5tuz9y0VWxPCn=s96-c

4

32

0

1

15

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529448959}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1683160095690}]

["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704120111592

1657159149432

0

MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2

0.6038247110316566

kyFmDhDx23PNLwvh9OQN

{"NO": 3121.0829004551865, "YES": 222.86955115091695}

1

will-the-diff-continue-publishing-a

3765.7786806934578

Will The Diff continue publishing at least 3x/week over the next year?

1688422803701

MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2

cpmm-1

2.4694313944729465

0.9878300692604682

True

play

YES

public

1656970709922

Byrne Hobart

This question resolves to "YES" if The Diff continues publishing at roughly its current schedule through July 3rd, 2023.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.51819012334213, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688422803701

680

ByrneHobart

1688422816465

0.4

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWRUkVKow5CE1qtRKVDnXQoCE5tuz9y0VWxPCn=s96-c

1

27

0

18

0.18710534761514075

0.5

1688387560782

1688422814081

0.96

0.8336587377725336

wruvKj1CUURFXzNqcCND

{"NO": 11592.482702709485, "YES": 124.41531212422979}

1

will-openai-offer-a-paid-version-of

7891.582647584028

Will OpenAI offer a paid version of Dalle in 2022?

1658337415031

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.693197806326765

True

play

YES

public

1656978012835

Ben

Resolves YES if OpenAI adds the ability to pay for Dalle — e.g. they begin charging users for addition API use, higher resolution output, etc.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 45.795190212520424, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658337415031

300

bcongdon

1658337389948

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

29

0

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455899}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529589183}]

["ai", "technology-default"]

0.5

1658337387855

1658335858211

0.9955824751048168

0.4652911642526398

dQpxn8ViSim5Zz77WiSl

{"NO": 975.0656084180969, "YES": 1020.3471072808821}

0.45401720079811053

is-the-radiation-hormesis-hypothesi

265.7950500914227

Is the "radiation hormesis" hypothesis largely accurate?

5427935940000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.632158202936093

False

basic

public

1656992191445

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hormesis This question resolves once there is a generally-accepted answer to whether low levels of radiation have a beneficial effect on human health, even if the benefit is tiny.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0052824771753927635}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.592215854989683, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1718617503635

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

18

0

5

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531042}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1718617500239

f6SQIDalnFFF9MGXVhD9

what-factors-are-important-when-cho

113

What factors are important when choosing a place to live?

1659646740000

iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.825537052153998

True

play

MKT

public

1656997632273

JuJumper

Be as specific as possible. I.e. "Temperature never going below 0C" instead of weather. Will resolve according to my judgement.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660781900205

779.9999999999998

JuJumper

1659642332582

0

https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "97fb1c33b11f", "prob": 0.22041482069254337, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.294188049310979, "userId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.335713711608, "textFts": "", "contractId": "f6SQIDalnFFF9MGXVhD9", "createdTime": 1656997632666, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...

1

1659639448327

1659642330966

{"090dba9fa717": 1.4285714285714286, "12c93fa24adf": 1.4285714285714286, "2498d6f81171": 4.285714285714286, "3bd90b4dc11b": 8.571428571428571, "54172dcf9284": 4.285714285714286, "6349496c0880": 21.428571428571427, "73ada08c9cbf": 28.571428571428573, "73da2cd03d48": 1.4285714285714286, "c3432a8c7317": 1.4285714285714286...

True

0.16088546726679873

FYCDeNq4PjCZL17toBsq

{"NO": 967.4476718999649, "YES": 973.8282314987374}

0.16

will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-reso

1099.6532661205026

Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

1893473940000

gxV9FVYF4cPCsyBVw3TkaVqpMm53

cpmm-1

0

9.83531073122791

False

basic

public

1657006197374

Alun Stokes

It's a problem a child could understand. Still, there have been countless mathematicians "wasting their careers" attempting to solve what is beyond our grasp -- and it fundamentally comes down to understanding how the multiplicative structure of the integers interacts with the additive. This will be resolved if a proof...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01321397180060857}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.142120374876846, "platformFee": 0.0514003933664259, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AlunStokes

1718913121787

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gih6-Fs2Yja8oOuMh8uFT-g5UZ_M4wHdzvTZ_vr7w=s96-c

1

26

0

7

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1665011908441}, {"name": "Collatz", "slug": "collatz", "groupId": "107f1ed4-390b-4a7e-9b15-67cbe7b56baa", "createdTime": 1703720982352}]

["mathematics", "collatz"]

0.5

1718913118708

1718814911441

0.05555555555555388

3flv2VsUstikcrb2wN8k

{"NO": 103.9876566708666, "YES": 51.44101655534519}

0.1111111111111111

how-many-people-will-test-positive

344.23204328878967

How many people will test positive for covid at the Dagstuhl workshop?

1657270834445

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

8.565957498353214

True

play

MKT

public

1657019745632

Daniel Reeves

This market will resolve according to the number of people reporting positive covid tests among the ~40 attendees of the Dagstuhl workshop on participatory democracy. One positive case so far! The venue provides two self tests per person during the workshop week. If more than 10 people test positive, the market resolve...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.805407383170058, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657270834445

100

dreev

1657270637051

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

11

0

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553491}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.05555555555555555

1657270635602

0.1111111111111111

0.5499999999999999

8JIaqtay6JKDUciNVBjz

{"NO": 122.88177148169149, "YES": 84.48565673494778}

0.65

how-many-people-will-be-present-at

171.84866714281554

How many people will be present at the Dagstuhl workshop at 9:35am on Friday?

1657270524524

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

2.818112790815703

True

play

MKT

public

1657020195725

Daniel Reeves

This resolves to the number of people in the lecture hall for the Dagstuhl workshop on algorithms for participatory democracy, including workshop organizers, at 9:35am local time in Germany.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.980481925021625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657270524524

100

dreev

1657265677246

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

9

0

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553624}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.55

1657265677090

0.65

0.12499999999999992

NdgUgiqrehmidSltqfLN

{"NO": 120.52286835830415, "YES": 27.071591423160164}

0.4

how-many-dagstuhlers-will-trade-in

282.19648501610715

How many Dagstuhlers will trade in one of the Dagstuhl group markets on Manifold?

1657349940000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

6.600455951902591

True

play

MKT

public

1657020989874

Daniel Reeves

This market will resolve according to the number of people among the ~40 attendees of the Dagstuhl workshop on algorithms for participatory democracy who place trades in markets in the Dagstul group of markets, including this market.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.159349144133367, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657821711314

100

dreev

1657272210076

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

10

0

1

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553780}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.125

1657272208902

0.4

0.4999999999999871

7LwmOztqoPJEOMoDTMEU

{"NO": 1938.8460363383504, "YES": 5.157707116799088}

1

will-there-be-at-least-2-people-tes

3930.2673917090797

Will there be at least 2 people testing positive for covid at the Dagstuhl workshop?

1657270880151

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

5.393886844479971

True

play

YES

public

1657021373834

Daniel Reeves

This market will resolve according to whether there are 2 or more people reporting positive covid tests among the ~40 attendees of the Dagstuhl workshop on algorithms for participatory democracy. One positive test so far! The venue provides two self tests per person during the workshop week.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 20.38344390972095, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657270880151

100

dreev

1657270756507

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

13

0

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553558}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.5

1657270755222

1657176759477

0.9974279476004264

0.4999999999999999

nRq2qjBGWTtPFIuDGhKJ

{"NO": 45.6389762565518, "YES": 219.11096216941175}

0

will-i-have-seen-200-movies-series

144.1527316974115

Will I have seen 200 movies, series and documentaries by the end of this year

1672608770685

x6MyE80H4cbCl49qU1mlSLjEokx1

cpmm-1

0

3.0726586162498823

True

play

NO

public

1657024494491

Duke Gartzea

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of my goals this year was to watch at least 200 movies, series or documentaries. By the 1 of July, there are 84 different names on my \"watched\" list. I had a small depressive episode for the last two months and I only watched 9 things in almo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4733879642887704, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672608770685

100

dukeGartzea

1672234338881

0

https://firebasestorage.…26d-f65909a21bb1

7

0

6

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529547374}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1672234338698

0.17

0.5

AgjVnIiSC3W5BVpj6cJc

{"NO": 42.21316921513321, "YES": 236.89289825733}

0

will-i-write-my-first-post-for-the

178

Will I write my first post for the EA forum before September?

1662073140000

x6MyE80H4cbCl49qU1mlSLjEokx1

cpmm-1

0

3.133503644268023

True

play

NO

public

1657025838637

Duke Gartzea

I have some ideas to write a post for the EA forum related to social sciences and community building. Without spoilers and more explanations, my best ideas are: (1) about self-reliance and the creation of a community beyond the extraordinary. (2) About social sciences and their lack of existence in the forum. Why mor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8687718100268773, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672525172795

100

dukeGartzea

1662040766356

0

https://firebasestorage.…26d-f65909a21bb1

8

0

1

8

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1661868392313}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1662040766185

0.15

0.49999999999999983

aKXOwzR0Vzve96mm6NAX

{"NO": 375.16085063813665, "YES": 239.89709972912397}

0.73

will-lula-win-the-brazilian-preside

177.26934806341376

Will Lula win the Brazilian Presidential Election on the first round?

1657857287816

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

cpmm-1

0

1.1694627085380567

True

play

MKT

public

1657029225328

MP

This resolves to yes if Lula wins as the main name in the ticket in the first round, NO whatever else. Close date updated to 2022-10-02 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-10-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.204408253343592, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657857287816

300

MP

1710208094888

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

3

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108"}]

["politics-default", "world-default", "brazil-3292d24d179f"]

0.5

1657573381099

1657857328130

0.73

eSI5VLzjC9WGMez84zGX

which-recent-2022-movie-will-have-t

2090.5978091721386

Which recent (2022) movie will have the highest worldwide box office according to https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/ by the end of July 2022?

1659326340000

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.665590294120103

True

play

a814cc8eaf13

public

1657032747128

BCG

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.6250660604083045, "platformFee": 1.6562665151020761, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659328329518

560

BruceGrugett

1659326282306

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4b9de3ef50fd", "prob": 0.010729597730972672, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.13409077413060566, "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.363188014200064, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eSI5VLzjC9WGMez84zGX", "createdTime": 1657032747393, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"}, {"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w"}]

["culture-default", "boxoffice"]

1659326282163

1658964144468

{"a814cc8eaf13": 100}

True

0.19118809560174957

316DqfBaKCTK8imqtNyx

{"NO": 70.18565693575482, "YES": 505.64350536377884}

0

will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden

32474.282861898333

Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by July 31st, 2022?

1659337140000

c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2

cpmm-1

0

2.9768193029209766

True

play

NO

public

1657040518882

Dr P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald J. Trump requires your donation to the Election Defense Fund... Do your part and help Save America!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 4, 2:49pm: I have legitimate reason not to resolv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 180.22775713133078, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661609979355

152.92749503944472

DrP

1661611450348

0

https://firebasestorage.…164-fef8613e58d0

104

0

1

105

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529468168}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1659109767628}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", ...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1659307030438

1661611447191

False

0.031768482055769535

0.16712619801344022

oJ0I5wPwnjkYZ9ClMu5c

{"NO": 220.70281332847586, "YES": 1.0990055910775083}

1

how-many-unique-bettors-will-i-tip

213.3706372038984

How many unique bettors will I tip?

1657691940000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

7.026053658308901

True

play

MKT

public

1657042901745

Ian Philips

If you bet on this market I'll send you my unique bettor bonus via tip.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9353327662023825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657719793410

120

ian

1657631466281

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

24

0

1

[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529586502}]

["free-markets"]

0.005

1657631440322

1657631464700

1

0.49999999999988576

j0J8OIxCZSsaqEzdD7k7

{"NO": 10057.287662703717, "YES": 0.9943038655528653}

1

will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar

14078.125905360042

Will Dr P resolve his 7/31 Trump market accurately within 1 month?

1661611866220

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.313092688506523

True

play

YES

public

1657042938088

Jack

https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden

BINARY

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0

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0

1661611866220

100

jack

1661611843821

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

37

0

37

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1659584804573}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

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1661611840623

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0.8999999999999999

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{"NO": 259.13088209296006, "YES": 318.1159058932426}

0.7725959513436513

how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-edb2b9156d4e

789.6979849839402

How many markets will be created next week? (7/5-7/11, with new rewards per unique bettor just added)

1657686228591

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.731523304291405

True

play

MKT

public

1657043763741

Jack

Resolves to the number of markets created between 7/5 and 7/11 (inclusive) according to https://manifold.markets/stats For reference, there were 139 markets created last week after daily free markets were removed: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne. And there were 290 markets created in ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.279181391957648, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657686228591

300

jack

1658453765969

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

4

0

[{"name": "Free Markets", "slug": "free-markets", "groupId": "xckUbQD8rlqX2dK1Tpaa", "createdTime": 1658529585621}]

["free-markets"]

0.8073888172367005

1657686216120

1658453763122

0.7725959513436513

0.6917702980970164

0PMBkeNPWZh7aUJ9BvmX

{"NO": 3700.7184958168887, "YES": 154.42158524968065}

1

will-boris-johnson-be-prime-ministe-5d60877a3235

14174.233067764242

Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister next week?

1657494000000

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

1.6584594085210216

True

play

YES

public

1657044241563

John Roxton

This question resolves YES if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister of the UK on Monday 11th July 2022, and NO in all other cases.

BINARY

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1657523550281

400

JohnRoxton

1657480773548

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

42

0

1

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529466810}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1657480772331

1657198815332

0.9817470057793024

0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 121.45753999078165, "YES": 82.33329936337407}

1

is-austin-asleep-right-now

138.95999592686837

Is Austin asleep right now?

1657046250370

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.7914536670732386

True

play

YES

public

1657044350934

SG

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.6828649694170785, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657046250370

100

SG

1657053346745

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

7

0

0.5

1657045568175

1657053341458

0.5959911661176681

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{"NO": 118.88941446637003, "YES": 153.28441480015726}

0.288

2022-election-how-many-seats-will-r-cb80958cd1ce

66.99999999999996

2022 Election: How many seats will Republicans have in the House?

1670435608290

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

2.53895856878513

True

play

MKT

public

1657044380274

SneakySly

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many seats in the House will Republicans have after the 2022 election? Results as determined by fivethirtyeight after the results come in. (This is the second version of this market, created to fix the issues with the first)", "type": "text"}, ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0643083401886149, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1670435608290

130

SneakySly

1670435614836

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

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0

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[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101193}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529474087}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]

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1669142284879

1670435613263

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{"NO": 22819.337828280546, "YES": 245.95179635751626}

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this-question-will-resolve-yes-on-j

36014.95437054462

This question will resolve YES on January 1, 2023

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YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.7121855282908798

True

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YES

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1657044710364

Jack

This market resolves YES on January 1, 2023 (or as soon as possible afterwards if I forget on that day). This question is meant to find out to what extent Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and what the implied discount rate is. Similar to https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSem...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.860751203170853, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1672727125725

420

jack

1672640567287

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

1

29

[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1659388017041}]

["free-money"]

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{"NO": 279.2147711260483, "YES": 221.3161167040959}

0.55

2022-election-how-many-seats-will-d

364.72587425055394

2022 Election: How many seats will Democrats have in the Senate?

1670434975643

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

1.3552300896199991

True

play

MKT

public

1657046660356

SneakySly

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many seats in the Senate will Democrats have after the 2022 election? Results as determined by fivethirtyeight after the results come in.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1670434975643

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SneakySly

1670434981907

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https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

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0

2

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[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983496}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529501461}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]

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1670122707872

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0.5857111855772759

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0.5306122448979592

2022-election-what-will-joe-bidens

214.51777223227165

2022 Election: What will Joe Biden's Disapproval rating be on election day?

1667980740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

0.8854507950100298

True

play

MKT

public

1657046969926

SneakySly

Joe Biden's Disapproval rating as tracked by fivethirtyeight.com

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

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1667981311131

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SneakySly

1667980695875

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https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

9

0

8

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431405}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529483157}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqL...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]

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{"NO": 398.235294117647, "YES": 25.11078286558348}

0.9406849756480012

will-lula-implement-a-promarket-gov

397.11184816396394

Will Lula implement a pro-market government, if elected Brazil's president?

1672541940000

d62gYh84zvWGQ72ZgTN5XHt5Ja72

cpmm-1

0

3.659863358683147

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657047273602

Daniel Nascimento Rocha

With pro-market policies, the government's role is to establish the rules of the game including the legal and regulatory frameworks. It allows the market to function efficiently and generate positive economic outcomes while limiting unnecessary interventions that can cost taxpayers plenty of money.

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703116406954

100

DanielNascimentoRocha

1703116397401

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrnfI2aNLh08X3tiddXnbU_UHyDdQyBadEIaKmL=s96-c

2

0

71

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482797}]

["politics-default"]

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1667245256045

1703116395573

0.94

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.5

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{"NO": 21.917556917475586, "YES": 457.07294358056726}

0

will-anyone-be-driving-in-the-direc

710.6771405084764

Will anyone be driving in the direction of Aachen or Cologne on Friday?

1657349940000

5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2

cpmm-1

0

3.827820498291464

True

play

NO

public

1657050080502

Daniel Reeves

Asking for a friend. But this question resolves YES if any such person identifies themself, whether or not it works out to hitch a ride with them, which of course is the ulterior motive for posing this.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.014347254046315, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657658649283

100

dreev

1657322781536

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-1de8e9591170

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0

1

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553849}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.5

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{"NO": 95.92729431120968, "YES": 104.24561718125578}

1

will-the-shareholder-of-this-market-910359f86241

84

Will the shareholder of this market with the most shares (in this market) hold a YES position?

1657080000000

gIQ6gmJBOacQH0JkEUDGXVCKMXu2

cpmm-1

0

2.7734530928910397

True

play

YES

public

1657050195345

Charles Lien

Additionally, I will tip any unique bettors of this market who post a comment. Shares will be calculated using the Manifold API. See below for a link to the tool that I will be using to calculate the shares of each shareholder. (In the extremely unlikely event of a tie) Ties will be broken lexicographically. For exam...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.707637406912596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657080128768

100

CharlesLien

1657080115812

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzE7GH_CbP5WGDzPodZ4CLlmZ_DCNYPC9lbZdeX=s96-c

7

0

0.5

1657079841929

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0.4792221564645642

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5UHWuhbS4MCAOid9sccK

{"NO": 533.0508483748368, "YES": 18.75993637471548}

1

free-tip-this-market-will-resolve-t

2179.7147760557855

[Free Tip] This market will resolve to YES.

1661817600000

gIQ6gmJBOacQH0JkEUDGXVCKMXu2

cpmm-1

0

4.034628980553195

True

play

YES

public

1657052253279

Charles Lien

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 28, 8:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "[Free Tip] This market will resolve to YES once its creator earnings is higher than its liquidity.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → [Free Tip] This m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.882041756540936, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661836909344

100

CharlesLien

1661855974918

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzE7GH_CbP5WGDzPodZ4CLlmZ_DCNYPC9lbZdeX=s96-c

30

0

1

28

0.5

1661815860999

1661855970233

0.9660029544670284

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who-will-have-the-most-manifold-ref

740.7560742705634

Who will have the most Manifold Referrals by the end of July?

1659308340000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.723276947659347

True

play

de565c11fe14

public

1657053169150

Manifold

Referrals have been added! You can go to someone's profile page to see how many people have joined Manifold that they invited. You can invite users with a referral link to a group or the regular share button on a specific market also generates one. Each account can also retroactively refer someone by going to their ow...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.666130938237677, "platformFee": 3.416532734559419, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661147537318

720

Manifold

1663435775477

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "49c0aa6e3c4b", "prob": 0.052306110893041526, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1059541296809812, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.037925826190683, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LKYIvPpg9zWG9w4jYv8F", "createdTime": 1657053169369, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

5

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116849876}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7N...

["predictions-on-predictions", "improperly-resolved"]

1659139314251

1663435774212

{"de565c11fe14": 100}

True

hxDPHCuxdnj5VpBpHlba

what-will-the-next-backend-for-news

49

What will the next backend for newslettr.com be?

1657947540000

zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.9036383603404365

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657053244385

Alex Power

the Newslettr has abandoned Substack, in search of a software platform with better privacy and digesting tools. Which platform will it try next? Close date updated to 2022-07-15 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661536812964

420.00000000000006

AlexPower

1657556317032

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "71e4eb5cfe87", "prob": 0.4504301608035674, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 43.4969167343026, "userId": "zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.0705881075226, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hxDPHCuxdnj5VpBpHlba", "createdTime": 1657053244608, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

1

4

1657556316891

1657056026189

True

0.4999999999999944

M9ICWo9uS3fAV3cA59wy

{"NO": 1958.6169719594366, "YES": 5.105643493937493}

1

planecrash-will-100-wishes-be-succe

2931.738501731083

[planecrash] Will 100 wishes be successfully cast using artificial diamonds?

1658668712313

zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1

cpmm-1

0

5.392896398474563

True

play

YES

public

1657056756105

Robert Kennedy

This question resolves YES if at least 100 wishes are cast using artificial diamonds in 2022. This question resolves NO if this does not happen before the end of 2022, or if it becomes (in my opinion) sufficiently clear that this exploit will not scale to 100 wishes - for instance, if the material component of the Wis...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.445917610420103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658668712313

100

RobertKennedy

1658591055225

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgovhYtKaBS0WIN2IHeAUhEETQaS-e2zZTgvTQAYA=s96-c

17

0

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529391964}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1658591053896

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{"NO": 1205.1198987568469, "YES": 928.8493597411326}

0.8720336905451354

stranger-things-season-5-jvyy-znk-j

316.1284247725894

Stranger things season 5: Jvyy Znk jnxr hc?

1719806340000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.864375213373581

False

basic

public

1657057154666

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This Market will resolve to yes if at some point during season 5 of stranger things, Max awakes from her coma / brain death", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.090676101775348, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1704904652967

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

12

0

3

9

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492242}, {"name": "Stranger Things", "slug": "stranger-things", "groupId": "7ae537c2-453c-4a2f-adb2-06f98fb2c641", "createdTime": 1704904638942}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId...

["olivia", "stranger-things", "tv", "netflix", "entertainment"]

0.5

1686298408420

1704616475390

0.5

5kwSRaDGGV6IfhYwqRzV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

validation-backwards-compatible

0

Validation backwards compatible?

1657057709485

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657057656236

Sinclair Chen

sdfsdfsdfsdf

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657057709485

100

Sinclair

1657057698077

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

0

0.5

1657057696599

0.5

0.5749272839770183

zwU2m3eYNKuoFxi43hLx

{"NO": 32696.951351581323, "YES": 208.34520697683573}

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will-microsoft-complete-the-activis

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How many games will Deshaun Watson be suspended for in the 2022 regular season?

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[TUTBAD] Will we ever directly see...

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... an undone day? A description afterwards doesn't count. It has to either be a main-character viewpoint or take up most of a chapter.

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[TUTBAD] How many chapters will be published by the end of the year?

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From Alexander Wales: When I started TUTBAD, the plan was to go 200K words and then see how it was doing, whether it could justify more from either a creative or business standpoint. Patreon was doing well enough, and I liked what I was writing, so I pushed on. The second checkpoint was at the 400K mark, where there's...

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What feature will Manifold "unlaunch" next?

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Just as important as features we launch, are the things we "unlaunch". Removing features gives us breathing room to work on new ideas, or rethink the implementation of something we thought was a good idea but in practice has been less good than anticipated. Example of things we've unlaunched: - Loans - Algorithmic Fee...

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[Poll] Should the Portfolio value & graph include liquidity deposited in markets?

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#Manifold #ManifoldMarkets

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How many people will come for Taco Tuesday tonight?

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will-nato-expand-in-2022

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Will NATO expand in 2022?

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Will I run a half-marathon in 2022?

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Conditional on Trump being US President on July 31st, will he Make America Great Again?

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Resolves Yes if America is Great Again at market close(in my judgment). Resolves No if it is not. Resolves N/A if Trump is not the current US president on July 31st, 2022. #USA #USA #USA

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Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by July 31, 2022?

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Dr P

Plot twist!

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Will 5 or more UCR math friends create accounts at manifold.markets?

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Will Sam Bankman-Fried publicly donate at least $5 million to buy solar panels by the end of 2022?

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Climate change is real, and the most effective way to use money to combat it is to buy solar panels. If Mr. Bankman-Fried wants to donate money to combat climate change, he need not do anything fancy, he should just buy solar panels and give those away. Presumably there would be some form of a press release, or at le...

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This market will resolve to YES once there are 20 unique bettors of this market.

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Unlike my other markets, there will be *NO* tip for unique bettors of this market.

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Conditional on my other market, will the portfolio view include liquidity by the end of August?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the market in question: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/poll-should-the-portfolio-value-gra", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"},...

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How many days will my Covid symptoms last?

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Resolves to the number of days from my first day of Covid symptoms (6/30) to my last day of symptoms. For example, if my last day of symptoms is 7/6, then resolves as 6 days. Any Covid symptoms will count for this market, including e.g. a lingering cough. If my symptoms last longer than 20 days, resolves as 20. Rela...

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Will my Covid symptoms last >1 month?

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YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

5.840110364214187

True

play

YES

public

1657086978756

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if my Covid symptoms last until after 7/30 (1 month from when I first had symptoms and tested positive).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "E.g. a lingering cough would count as YES.", "type": "t...

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["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

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{"NO": 778.9963603505621, "YES": 177.99871890503124}

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will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates

3702.086719600036

Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 75bps in July?

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cpmm-1

0

1.081256801482244

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YES

public

1657092098880

Akhil Wable

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/fed-s-williams-sees-50-or-75-basis-point-hike-debated-in-july\n\n\"The Fed raised its benchmark rate earlier this month by 75 basis points -- the biggest increase since 1994 -- to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting that officials could consider another 75 basis-point increase, or a 50 basis-point hike, when they meet next month. \"\n\n#Economics"

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https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

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will-a-us-state-legislature-refuse

600.285821529181

Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?

1735649940000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

9.566061450381738

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basic

public

1657099431127

Keepcalmandchill

Yes if a US state legislature votes to give the electoral votes to a candidate who was not the generally recognised popular vote winner in the state or refuses to give the electoral votes at all.

BINARY

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randomized-experiment-which-of-thes

86

Randomized experiment: which of these six 10-minute morning activities will have the largest positive impact on my mood?

1664575140000

YPJyiMlQU3caiL8EUWSZNduoYCJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.852637485689376

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657107692509

Bart

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1

11

1664555235016

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Jw2PH6K5q0EKihxIHI4s

randomized-experiment-which-of-thes-1842e05edbfb

84

Randomized experiment: which of these six 10-minute morning activities will have the largest positive impact on my productivity?

1664575140000

YPJyiMlQU3caiL8EUWSZNduoYCJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.857260568846125

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play

CANCEL

public

1657107960151

Bart

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm doing a small study on myself. On working days, between 8 and 9am I will throw a die, and depending on its outcome I will do the following activity for 10 minutes: 1. Gratitude journal: write down three things I'm grateful for in a gratitude jo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1669229260553

760

Bart

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ANYONE

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randomized-experiment-which-of-thes-6879f5f39114

86

Randomized experiment: which of these six 10-minute morning activities will have the largest positive impact on my energy levels?

1664575140000

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.854926641247013

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play

CANCEL

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1657108064047

Bart

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm doing a small study on myself. On working days, between 8 and 9am I will throw a die, and depending on its outcome I will do the following activity for 10 minutes: 1. Gratitude journal: write down three things I'm grateful for in a gratitude jo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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Bart

1664538658491

0

https://firebasestorage.…47a-75749ab28c74

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ANYONE

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1

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1664538658320

True

0.5

It2Bmb3sAYOBQZW49Sjk

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-elon-musks-neuralink-implant-i

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Will Elon Musk's Neuralink implant its chip in humans by the end of 2022 as planned?

1657113856455

fpP3R7wWwPVAtJdRnFEAY47bFU82

cpmm-1

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2.7725887222397816

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play

CANCEL

public

1657113735285

AA

BINARY

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1657113856455

100

AA

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0

[{"name": "Brain–computer interface", "slug": "braincomputer-interface", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "QuOLd2DNx4MnaOR1aCzu", "createdTime": 1668684086462}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181977559}]

["braincomputer-interface", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

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0.5

0.5000000000000002

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{"NO": 21.413772327310838, "YES": 466.9891809415632}

0

will-elon-musks-neuralink-implant-i-ef6f715726f4

602.2200811512494

Will Elon Musk's Neuralink implant its chip in humans by the end of 2022 as planned?

1672549140000

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cpmm-1

0

3.5046042376393274

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play

NO

public

1657114054006

AA

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 6.4020004607749, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680900118570

100

AA

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11

0

20

11

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["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "braincomputer-interface", "please-resolve", "researchbet"]

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1667245205352

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0.04

0.9737844016647083

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{"NO": 629.3008474015454, "YES": 576.1927506431708}

0.974107512588761

what-will-be-the-lowest-bitcoin-pri

1202.4941185321602

What will be the lowest Bitcoin price during the years 2022/2023?

1704070800000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

5.388143830369918

True

play

MKT

public

1657116462962

FRC

Will resolve to the Lowest BTC->Dollar price in during 2022 and 2023, according to https://crypto.com/price/bitcoin

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4869372545659254, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704282046403

580

FRCassarino

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0

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8

0

1

7

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441602}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131599070}]

["crypto-prices", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.9901992391742567

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1704290818024

0.974107512588761

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0.5880622790644614

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{"NO": 899.5150537062848, "YES": 546.7024793547358}

0

what-will-be-the-highest-bitcoin-pr

763.421429624183

What will be the highest Bitcoin price from July 1st 2022 to Jan 1st 2024?

1704153540000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

0.566849395914812

True

play

MKT

public

1657116763169

FRC

Will resolve to the Highest BTC->Dollar price between July 1st 2022 and Jan 1st 2024, according to https://crypto.com/price/bitcoin

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 13.267289015296068, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704163717327

680

FRCassarino

1704163720979

0

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17

0

1

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[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441816}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139947943}]

["crypto-prices", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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0.873941972647502

bkhCD9hq8ynUo6zh2xCa

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.873941972647502

when-will-the-sp-500-set-a-new-all

0

When will the S&P 500 set a new all time high? (time/date as a Unix timestamp)

1657117372373

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cpmm-1

0

6.2917630232375865

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657117234315

FRC

Will resolve to the next Unixtimestamp (https://www.unixtimestamp.com/) in which the S&P 500 reaches an all-time high value, according to https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657117372373

100

FRCassarino

1657117234315

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

0

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1658529425617}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.873941972647502

0.5515905429643774

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{"NO": 1032.755354330072, "YES": 1009.2723062231682}

0.5552083144780106

when-will-the-sp-500-set-a-new-all-eff6c6a35bfc

615.076457708301

When will the S&P 500 set a new all time high? [where n = months since July 2022]

1705710061544

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

0.3782450417718528

True

play

MKT

public

1657117604746

FRC

Will resolve to the next month (https://www.unixtimestamp.com/) in which the S&P 500 reaches an all-time high value, according to https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx The numeric value will map to "months since July 2022". So: 1 - August 2022, 2 September 2022, 3 October 2022, etc.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.547921141387502, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705710061544

1040

FRCassarino

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0

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["wall-street-bets", "economics-default"]

0.09475981066144973

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{"NO": 291.0086068509761, "YES": 34.36324481330871}

1

will-i-attend-eag-sf-2022

246.90014901515764

Will I attend EAG SF 2022?

1659423540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

3.317872229539386

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play

YES

public

1657120337516

Austin

I live in SF, and would likely (>90%) go if I got in, but I haven't found the time to apply yet. https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-san-francisco-2022/ Jul 6, 8:17am: Hm after thinking a bit more, dropping likelihood to 70% conditional on getting in, mostly because EAG DC and Future Forum seem more exciting, a...

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1660324822965

100

Austin

1659118547465

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

5

0

1

0.5

1659118546320

1658606986768

0.8943877762088519

0.4999999999999997

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{"NO": 357.3028327994591, "YES": 27.987463524009144}

1

will-i-attend-the-future-forum

584.170382660267

Will I attend the Future Forum?

1659682740000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

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3.5338755423848807

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YES

public

1657120449667

Austin

Would very much want to go if I get in; but also have not applied yet, and their application is somewhat length (30m of writing) https://futureforum.foundation/

BINARY

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1659682839707

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Austin

1659656540944

0

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{"NO": 3021.106927751594, "YES": 9.1458172588762}

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will-i-attend-eag-dc

2903

Will I attend EAG DC?

1664175540000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

4.911777402019919

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YES

public

1657120610396

Austin

Manifold has put down a deposit for a VRBO around the DC area https://manifold.markets/noumena/will-i-be-part-of-a-group-renting-t, but we haven't done much other planning yet (including applying to the conference) https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-washington-d-c-2022/

BINARY

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1664990461015

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Austin

1664161101902

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["eag-dc-2022"]

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215

June 30 Cycle Retro: What could have gone better?

1657177140000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.762228114049824

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CANCEL

public

1657120842472

Austin

Where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well. Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much other than like a subjective vote on how much you agree w...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657206580772

760.0000000000001

Austin

1657233965374

0

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9

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[{"id": "b87c4f63be9d", "prob": 0.10078105316200554, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2492843163912455, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.069239313000885, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4zURrC8e7G7bghUYlf4H", "createdTime": 1657120842744, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1663863161741}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

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zFvol3cJlyF9uSWTx2ok

june-30-cycle-retro-what-went-well

322

June 30 Cycle Retro: What went well?

1657177140000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.726968816977828

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657120912497

Austin

Take time to reflect on what things we accomplished (individually, and as a team) that we're especially proud of! This both gives us cause to celebrate, and also lets us double down on processes and ideas that are working~ Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657206597718

719.9999999999998

Austin

1657154378704

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

10

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1663863167994}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

1657154378557

1657133976154

True

0.09182557119007857

lF6pfdZGGa0E2BaoXFTx

{"NO": 925.5283850162067, "YES": 1287.6943727095584}

0.06774918652164652

will-a-pocket-pardon-from-a-us-pres

642.300545142787

Will a "pocket pardon" from a US president be revealed by end of 2024?

1735707540000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

10.304226556124423

False

basic

public

1657121397509

Martin Randall

The existence of the pardon must be revealed, but it's not necessary for the text of the pardon to be revealed. It can be a pardon from any president. Regular publicly declared pardons are excluded. Jul 7, 7:29am: It's not necessary that the pardon be found constitutional for this market to resolve yes.

BINARY

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0

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0

1000

MartinRandall

1712186508080

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

1

10

0

9

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660130889726}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862001}]

["magaland", "us-politics"]

0.5

1712186504171

1691369519367

False

0.666435564172237

E3YfgrSpq9FOtLRjNabi

{"NO": 297.2921705898664, "YES": 295.5322683580972}

0.663984955881427

how-many-views-will-dwarkeshs-inter

236.4399367013237

How many views will Dwarkesh's interview with SBF have on YouTube by the end of the month?

1659326340000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

0.32563464618905147

True

play

MKT

public

1657121510338

SG

@DwarkeshPatel 's interview with Sam Bankman-Fried on Crypto, Altruism, & Leadership: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Af0d2DbK5w

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.285405530740974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659375956733

300

SG

1658377473912

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

10

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529445473}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658529589618}, {"name": "Podcasts", "slug": "podcasts", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2...

["effective-altruism", "technology-default", "podcasts"]

0.5561269573816109

1658377472631

1657146471042

0.663984955881427

0.3371118729796018

8lI70cZeENGx0bG0CFOP

{"NO": 150.0352287570003, "YES": 74.18232113230856}

0.5070377519041569

how-many-papers-will-acknowledge-da

115.36034734622703

How many papers will acknowledge Dagstuhl Seminar 22271 by 2024?

1735685940000

fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1657122832813

David Pennock

This market will resolve to the number of unique research papers published or posted online (e.g., in arxiv) that acknowledge Dagstuhl Seminar 22271 (Algorithms for Participatory Democracy) by December 31, 2024. The number will be calculated by searching Google Scholar for 'Dagstuhl 22271' and '+Dagstuhl "Algorithms fo...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.60800387869345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

DavidPennock

1682325363434

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GigaxwyNC7CJGK05wkscUAcW9fbTCZOiRPQ6V_ZVw=s96-c

8

0

8

[{"name": "Dagstuhl", "slug": "dagstuhl", "groupId": "iujELUGoe9lN2JJMQrL5", "createdTime": 1658529553689}]

["dagstuhl"]

0.3

1682325363265

7h4BVTQsZ9Tma8EAI24D

face-with-most-unique-betters-in-it

431.7183754780956

Face with most unique betters in its favor wins

1657771140000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.709569174765745

True

play

e947e6c51cf8

public

1657128928418

Enopoletus Harding

You can bet on multiple faces. Only proposed answers made by me will count.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 7.169220094870302, "platformFee": 1.7923050237175755, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657800669532

1259.9999999999998

EnopoletusHarding

1657770124952

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

11

0

ANYONE

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1

1657770123802

1657319745772

{"e947e6c51cf8": 100}

True

0.49999999999999983

xwhR6TfIneQ157DKSHiE

{"NO": 54.99894723875862, "YES": 181.82166208724902}

0.1

will-my-new-puppy-learn-how-to-drop

326

Will my new puppy learn how to "drop it" within the first 2 weeks of being home?

1658116740000

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

0

2.948704839704907

True

play

MKT

public

1657130509211

Rachael Ng

Learning "drop it" means that he drops whatever is in his mouth when we command him to. He must drop whatever he's holding onto very purposefully upon hearing the command. He should be able to drop it 80% of the time we ask him to.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.538031686694703, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658358324261

100

RachaelNg

1658358352265

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqO89c_sluW327SVvCvpTQNYWUtcjhF4dYLW8obuU=s96-c

11

0

1

0.5

1658114054955

1658358350396

0.1

0.6899999999999997

duNEth35jt35CjkBLQyf

{"NO": 97.24255941562724, "YES": 101.26417500141696}

0.7337499999999999

what-will-my-weight-be-on-july-31

41

What will my weight be on July 31?

1659279600000

QlGQ9ddKRkY5TkVQulOoNGzmyIz1

cpmm-1

0

3.2407250497979914

True

play

MKT

public

1657134676061

Eric

This is a follow-up to https://manifold.markets/theincredibleholk/what-will-my-weight-be-on-june-29th I recently completed the Slime Mold Time Mold potato study and lost nearly 17 pounds over 28 days. I'm now eating a more varied diet, mostly eating what I want and as much as I want. How will my weight change going fo...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.783168995800279, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659280237566

100

theincredibleholk

1658085940376

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCVP2w6fspK1SnGLVoBOKk3lgLt7ii6sKr64wpSCg=s96-c

5

0

1

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423635}]

["slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.6899999999999998

1658085940219

1657728141316

0.7337499999999999

0.12472647702407005

x96t6uXhPfPtKJVMY1cT

{"NO": 97.27269557718228, "YES": 121.41547072937391}

0.08971553610503284

how-many-votes-will-the-topvoted-ma

50.90433437826368

How many votes will the top-voted Manifold Market have on Hacker News in 2022?

1672559940000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

6.355393994749807

True

play

MKT

public

1657159562398

Ben

https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=manifold.markets I'll count any market created in 2022 -- including the one that currently has 43 points. The HN submission must link to a market (i.e. not a Manifold blog post, home page, announcement, etc.)

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4884271010729733, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672678472264

100

bcongdon

1657265245640

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

4

0

1

5

0.12472647702407003

1657265244210

0.08971553610503284

0.49999999999999994

hOV8AuAcat9HmT32dIxT

{"NO": 148.99086474090166, "YES": 67.11820900825178}

0.72

i-incidentally-got-an-iq-test-while

75

I incidentally got an IQ test while trying to get an ADHD diagnosis. What was the score?

1657252740000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.8515544728361215

True

play

MKT

public

1657159601362

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.798920217615249, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657253118131

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657256543821

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

2

4

0

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492230}]

["olivia"]

0.5

1657247719640

1657256542172

0.72

0.5

oKsFopU07MMYa6ys8iXb

{"NO": 109.5475113122172, "YES": 91.28459314332922}

1

will-my-partner-win-his-next-basket

10

Will my partner win his next basketball game?

1657162803765

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

0

2.7767449230232932

True

play

YES

public

1657162350046

Rachael Ng

I'm currently watching my partner play basketball, his games usually last around 10ish minutes.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.45248868778280543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657162803765

100

RachaelNg

1657162360885

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqO89c_sluW327SVvCvpTQNYWUtcjhF4dYLW8obuU=s96-c

1

0

0.5

1657162359569

0.5454681242782337

0.4999999999999997

bl3YtCVOqY398y7Hb2oc

{"NO": 20.209086749914817, "YES": 541.332161377396}

0

will-this-market-get-20-individual

893.1686352515228

Will this market get 20+ individual betters?

1657771140000

IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

0

3.9052294437482624

True

play

NO

public

1657163041465

Bionic

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.864458778767258, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657771549441

100

BionicD0LPH1N

1657771529399

0

https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc

15

0

0.5

1657771095387

1657771528252

0.03294582282758073

0.10999815402791173

dkB79pcxzNLP7340uv1O

{"NO": 924.7938044139252, "YES": 1269.2144578322607}

0.08261449707450277

during-the-year-2027-will-china-imp

334.0031051341939

During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?

1830308340000

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

cpmm-1

0

10.152717201223206

False

basic

public

1657164143493

MP

This question resolves to yes if there's a zero covid policy lockdown in a major Chinese city that is comparable to Shanghai's 2022 lockdown due to pandemic. Although it'll require judgement, a comparable one would have a complete ban in going out of home, major industries (semiconductor, electrical vehicles, smartph...

BINARY

{"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.569649772382634, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MP

1700462431350

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

11

0

7

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983050}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659851505498}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "me...

["china", "medicine"]

0.5

1700462431244

1660333110653

0.5

GuJRZehSX1P3lJ8SwZhy

{"NO": 43.631660535778536, "YES": 229.19136877222158}

0

will-i-finish-publishing-my-product

390.76002946922216

Will I finish publishing my productivity hacking guide by the end of Q3?

1664607540000

FsjurT0vl5fGfQCrFbH5sF3hvc32

cpmm-1

0

3.107101974535677

True

play

NO

public

1657167634164

jmaa

I've publish 4/6 parts of my productivity guide. I will resolve yes if I publish all 6 parts by the end of Q3 2022. **Context** I own a blog under jamesmaa.com that I haven't touched since March 2019. I've shied away from some of the stuff I used to write about and therefore have serious writer's block but I feel a b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.667641494865983, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664607832512

100

jmaa

1664594729900

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjqKyA85T9AC-QalJy5dI1xJIlRUp2U6BNn2mZPTA=s96-c

13

0

13

0.5

1664594729782

1657176077639

0.15992660387375554

0.4999999999999997

7ZSeLqRs97UN4OKUku8q

{"NO": 121.37292649292785, "YES": 82.39069691198954}

0.59

test-concept-what-will-the-rotten-t

53.68829414912668

Test Concept: What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of Thor Love & Thunder be 3 months after release?

1663991940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.791318860317763

True

play

MKT

public

1657169983252

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be determined by the nearest WayBack snapshot to 23:59 of the day 3 months post initial theater release. If this type of market is interesting to you, and enough liquidity comes back, I may write a bot that makes and resolves this type of...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0622003162446347, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663999502799

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1663990584633

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

6

0

1

7

[{"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1668310156193}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4...

["olivia", "media-rating-futures", "marvel-cinematic-universe", "entertainment"]

0.5

1663990584512

1663677604297

0.59

0.5

U0rVpcDO82BcDzZgjuQs

{"NO": 200, "YES": 200}

0.5

will-the-dark-mode-kickstarter-have

0

Will the dark mode kick-starter have more than 100k Committed to it?

1657173549161

lECrAcNteYcQvm1UpKAsCefbdqx1

cpmm-1

0

1.6218604324326575

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657171623207

Jay

This will resolve to yes if more than 100k in total commitments are pledged to the manifold community kickstarter here https://manifold.markets/Austin/kickstart-will-the-manifold-communi Because obviously what we need is more arbitrage.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657173549161

200

JacobIannelli

1657171623207

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwOlr6Fo5k2THqrJoOEQ4vDUXBE9KJLgC-PaO9j=s96-c

0

0.5

0.5626935524819985

P5ezSw6WZhS40YcnDqtB

{"NO": 92.59005803191654, "YES": 289.6472726545337}

0.29144401535597003

will-pep-554-graduate-from-provisio

370.2984671522204

Will PEP 554 graduate from provisional status?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1657172794768

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://peps.python.org/pep-0554/ This resolves YES if it graduates or NO if removed. If this is not decided in 3.10, market will be extended until one of these occurs", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6458557588805168, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

LivInTheLookingGlass

1704152395313

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

8

0

3

1

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492240}, {"name": "Python Questions", "slug": "python-questions", "groupId": "vBKvNFuJMP6gyWzCIGJ4", "createdTime": 1658529584440}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-market...

["python-questions", "olivia", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1703658083613

1703658288383