CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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{"NO": 950.1591886201566, "YES": 38.04528710610259}

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will-pep-684-be-accepted

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Will PEP 684 be accepted?

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cpmm-1

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YES

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1657173355696

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

https://peps.python.org/pep-0684/ Resolves when the PEP resolves

BINARY

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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what-letters-will-be-in-wordle-385

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What letters will be in Wordle 385?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Will resolve to the number of times each answer appears in the word Close date updated to 2022-07-09 11:59 pm

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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["olivia"]

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what-will-be-the-highest-worldwide

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What will be the highest worldwide box office gross for movies released in 2022?

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cpmm-1

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CANCEL

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wasabipesto

This market resolves to the total worldwide value for the highest-grossing film released in 2022. I won't resolve this market until any film that looks like it might overtake the top spot leaves theaters, so I reserve the right to extend this market further into 2023 if that happens. I will use https://www.boxofficemo...

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1657210061627

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who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-c68cf42c7756

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Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

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Alex Catalán Flores

Today, Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister. Who from the Conservative Party will replace him as PM? Note: the question resolves in several months because Boris Johnson said he'd remain PM until a new one is elected "in the autumn".

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AlexCatalanFlores

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["politics-default", "prime-millennial"]

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will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher

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Will Ukraine regain control of Kherson by the end of 2022?

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Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10850/date-of-ukrainian-liberation-of-kherson/ answer is in 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multiple-choice version of this market:", ...

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will-rafael-nadal-defeat-nick-kyrgi

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Will Rafael Nadal defeat Nick Kyrgios in the 2022 Wimbledon semifinal on Friday?

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Steve

I'll resolve this market YES if Nadal advances to the 2022 Wimbledon Final. I'll resolve this market NO if Kyrgios advances instead. Otherwise I'll resolve this market N/A. I'll use this bracket as a source: https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/draws/index.html?event=MS

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steve

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in-the-final-choice-of-life-is-stra

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In the final choice of "Life Is Strange," will I follow Chloe's suggestion?

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Peter Berggren

I specifically phrased this question to avoid spoilers, if you're wondering why it's confusingly phrased. I just started "Life Is Strange," after hearing a bit of broad-strokes information about the plot of the game. I know that the game has multiple plot-relevant choices, and I know what the last one is, but am not d...

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PeterBerggren

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Will I cry at the end of "Life Is Strange?"

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Peter Berggren

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What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?

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CRFP

Nuclear philanthropy is experiencing a disruption, with the recent announcement that the MacArthur Foundation, one of the largest funders, is exiting the field (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-arms-controllers-nuclear-weapons-500126). This question is designed to estimate the approximate annual fund...

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If I follow Chloe's suggestion at the end of "Life Is Strange," will I cry?

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Peter Berggren

I specifically phrased this question to avoid spoilers, if you're wondering why it's confusingly phrased. I just started "Life Is Strange," after hearing a bit of broad-strokes information about the plot of the game. I know that some of the choices in the game, particularly near the end, can get very emotional, and I ...

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If I refuse Chloe's suggestion at the end of "Life Is Strange," will I cry?

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Peter Berggren

I specifically phrased this question to avoid spoilers, if you're wondering why it's confusingly phrased. I just started "Life Is Strange," after hearing a bit of broad-strokes information about the plot of the game. I know that some of the choices in the game, particularly near the end, can get very emotional, and I ...

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Will a new funder commit at least $5 million/year to nuclear security by the end of 2023?

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Recently, the MacArthur Foundation announced that it was withdrawing from nuclear security grantmaking, creating a potentially large shortfall in philanthropic funding in the coming years (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-arms-controllers-nuclear-weapons-500126). Other funders, like Longview Philan...

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How much will my gas mileage increase by driving only 60mph on the freeway?

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What will be the highest worldwide box office gross for movies released in 2022?

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wasabipesto

This market resolves to the total worldwide value for the highest-grossing film released in 2022. I won't resolve this market until any film that looks like it might overtake the top spot leaves theaters, so I reserve the right to extend this market further into 2023 if that happens. I will use https://www.boxofficemo...

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What will be the highest worldwide box office gross for movies released in 2022?

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wasabipesto

This market resolves to the total worldwide value for the highest-grossing film released in 2022. I won't resolve this market until any film that looks like it might overtake the top spot leaves theaters, so I reserve the right to extend this market further into 2023 if that happens. I will use https://www.boxofficemo...

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IF Manifold introduces real money trading in 2022, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

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FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) By real money trading I mean that users can buy and trade with real money, and withdraw their winnings to their bank account. Any way to do this "counts", as ...

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IF Manifold doesn't introduce real money trading, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

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FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) By real money trading I mean that users can buy and trade with real money, and withdraw their winnings to their bank account. If it is introduced any time bef...

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IF Manifold lets creators add "real money prize-pools" to Markets in 2022, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

1657277853220

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

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CANCEL

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1657215810862

FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) If "real money prizepools" are NOT introduced before Jan 1st 2024, the question resolves to N/A. If they are introduced, the question will resolve to the MAU...

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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how-many-counties-will-tim-ryan-win

0

How many counties will Tim Ryan win in 2022?

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KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

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4.332169878499657

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1657222036881

Enopoletus Harding

?

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100

EnopoletusHarding

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what-agreement-will-my-description

57.992330633965544

What % agreement will my description of fascism as "agricultural landlordism in decay" get here?

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KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

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7.532321575892151

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1657228280550

Enopoletus Harding

Vote in the comments. I originally phrased it as "feudalism in decay", but this would exclude Argentina.

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EnopoletusHarding

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how-many-leonis-friends-will-join-m

54.77152470448866

How Many Leonis Friends will join Manifold through this market?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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1657229305405

Jay Zhao

The market closes by the end of next month.

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how-many-followers-will-i-have-on-j-346279ab7f00

80

How many followers will I have on July 28?

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cpmm-1

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5.857905662968989

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1657250659308

Enopoletus Harding

?

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how-long-will-boris-johnson-be-uk-p

43

How long will Boris Johnson be UK PM, in months counting from 7/1?

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YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

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2.889068404007622

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1657259624556

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as the number of months after July 1 he remains UK PM. For example, if he were to leave office on 8/15, would resolve as 1.5 months. He announced his resignation on 7/7 but intends to remain PM until a new leader is elected.", "type": "tex...

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Will Shinzo Abe die within the next 30 days?

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Conflux

Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was reportedly shot today and brought to the hospital in cardio and pulmonary arrest. This market will resolve YES if he dies within the next thirty days and NO otherwise. (By August 6, 2022.)

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if-manifold-lets-creators-add-real-cb1a9d26f0ea

14.000000000000016

IF Manifold lets creators add "real money prize-pools" to Markets in 2022, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

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tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

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2.9029568863713653

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play

CANCEL

public

1657277905523

FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) If "real money prizepools" are NOT introduced before Jan 1st 2024, the question resolves to N/A. If they are introduced, the question will resolve to the MAU ...

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99.5925029110212

IF Manifold doesn't introduce real money trading, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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1657277974306

FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) By real money trading I mean that users can buy and trade with real money, and withdraw their winnings to their bank account. If it is introduced any time bef...

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if-manifold-introduces-real-money-t-a223b4dfd2ec

101.72869043408359

IF Manifold introduces real money trading in 2022, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?

1704153540000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

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2.591967575765122

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657278079400

FRC

MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) By real money trading I mean that users can buy and trade with real money, and withdraw their winnings to their bank account. Any way to do this "counts", as ...

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will-i-get-covid-during-my-upcoming

399.8337816258899

Will I get COVID during my upcoming trip to the US?

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1657281354514

Christopher Chubb

I'm going on a two-week trip to attend a conference (Illinois) and a summer school (NY). I intend to wear a mask on planes and public transport, but may be more lax around colleagues. I have not yet (to my knowledge) contracted COVID, and have had three shots of Pfizer. Will I contract COVID during this trip?

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ChristopherChubb

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of-the-12-findings-in-this-study-on

360.92518635499397

Of the 12 findings in this study on people’s views about financial well-being, what number of them will replicate? [Closing soon]

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0.6371374664912623

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1657288556573

Transparent Replications

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We attempted to replicate Study 2 from \"Lay Theories of Financial Well-being Predict Political and Policy Message Preferences,” published in JPSP in March 2022. We consider a finding to have replicated if the original result was statistically sign...

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TransparentReplications

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0.8333333333333335

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{"NO": 106.67898627040354, "YES": 93.73917347370171}

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how-many-unique-species-of-wildflow

197.78689181036978

How many unique species of wildflowers will we see while backpacking this weekend?

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2.7746784288615385

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1657293782905

Ian Philips

We're backpacking in the mount zirkel wilderness this weekend near steamboat springs for 2 night/3 days. It's spring so I bet we'll see many dozens of unique wildflower species! Jul 11, 8:22am: Final tally of 54: https://photos.app.goo.gl/9BZW9d1oxNS543pZ8

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["colorado", "outdoors"]

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{"NO": 12.023636316309188, "YES": 831.6951491983946}

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737

Will Narendra Modi become the next Prime Minister of Britain?

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KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

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4.690750367272159

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NO

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1657297141616

Enopoletus Harding

?

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what-is-the-most-plausible-motive-f

671.1799511576334

What is the most plausible motive for the assassination of Shinzo Abe?

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tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.725774483292005

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play

31534ee7e28e

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1657300599965

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve according to my best guess at the end of the month. Background: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gun-free-japan-stunned-shinzo-abe-assassination-rcna37235 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62098100 Jul 8, ", "type": "text"}]}, {"...

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will-it-be-possible-to-short-an-ans

1411.872702805812

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market?

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2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-1

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3.8421070224303944

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NO

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1657307760138

Forrest

Resolves true if there's any way to do that, at time of market close. Jul 10, 10:26pm: If it's possible to short answers on new free response markets but not on existing ones, this market will still resolve to yes. If there's some feature that's mostly but not fully equivalent to shorting an answer (e.g. a way to auto...

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1660664000255

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will-i-na-the-modi-market

20

Will I N/A the Modi market?

1657335530144

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.772619758568794

True

play

CANCEL

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1657308509670

Enopoletus Harding

If I N/A the market here, I will get all the earnings from unique bettors (until the issue is fixed) while not losing anything. However, that would defeat the purpose of the market. https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-narendra-modi-become-the-next Will I resolve the Modi market as N/A?

BINARY

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1657335530144

100

EnopoletusHarding

1657335956757

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https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

2

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1657310440393

1657335955450

0.4960607662556291

rsEGydwMhmKLTMpABtmW

who-will-zane-date

163.6335371884385

Who will Zane date?

1665291832921

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.796866261118696

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CANCEL

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1657313502161

Sinclair Chen

Who is the next person that my housemate Zane will be Dating? Not including current partner. Resolves to whatever I believe. If that person isn't below, I'm front running you all. If Zane ends up forever alone I'll N/A.

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0

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1665291832921

580

Sinclair

1665291821025

0

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8

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664925834556}]

["dating"]

1663642166635

1665291818836

True

0.7025908482093826

uExkr7d5ghTVwJgzkitf

{"NO": 362.0267512828962, "YES": 94.84498736029873}

0.9001722711676691

the-floor-valuation-for-rarepepes-l

502.043304231509

The Floor Valuation for RAREPEPEs Last sale market cap will exceed $420,420,420 with one year. Currently (Last sale market cap: $261,383,148) According to Pepe.wtf

1688878740000

I2ttVEFplzRBSuwnaiXQajgskSl2

cpmm-1

0.0029274302886296392

2.767924780160916

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657316511158

Arwyn Hughes

Floor valuation: $1,213,107,937 Jul 8, 4:41pm: This market will close after one year from this post, as it expires, or when the question is resolved by The Floor Valuation for RAREPEPEs Last sale market cap will exceeding $420,420,420 USD. (According to the PEPE.wtf website) RARE PEPES are collectable "NFT" trading c...

BINARY

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1703051064392

160

ArwynHughes

1703051060219

1.1

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["ancient-markets"]

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1688868510880

1703051059536

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who-is-satoshi-nakamoto

1105.4596121955913

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

1743922740000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1657318551906

Sinclair Chen

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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1220

Sinclair

1716450236243

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

2

33

0

ANYONE

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14

[{"name": "Doxxing", "slug": "doxxing", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ieLohSBcP1wEHLtxJr9S", "createdTime": 1668603828288}, {"name": "Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1668720699142}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency"...

["doxxing", "bitcoin", "crypto-speculation"]

0.11022536916295965

1716450232597

1708792632510

False

True

0.6637917137730377

jjPUpI8XG46rGki6S10T

{"NO": 16670.122476881836, "YES": 91.20710242373934}

1

will-elon-musk-acquire-twitter-by-j

26181.332923429596

Will Elon Musk acquire Twitter by July 2023?

1666920413618

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.606510636940894

True

play

YES

public

1657320194402

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a deal for Elon Musk to buy Twitter closes before July 1, 2023, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if/when Elon Musk and Twitter reach and execute an agr...

BINARY

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1666920413618

651.9842444169295

jack

1710451943828

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

32

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

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1666920383266

1666920370223

False

0.9891056576819789

0.5000000000000001

jgnQqhobWcYWW80TrufK

{"NO": 436.1560506434548, "YES": 366.8411793530191}

0.5441666666666667

what-will-twitters-close-price-on-m

60

What will Twitter's close price on Monday 7/11 be?

1657609140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

0.8949705530597729

True

play

MKT

public

1657320647010

Jack

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/ If the resolution price is outside the bounds of this market, resolves to the closest bound. Context: Elon Musk tells Twitter he wants to terminate the deal to buy Twitter, and Twitter says they will sue to enforce the merger agreement. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/tech/elon-mu...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

{"creatorFee": 2.8442187645621826, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657638600439

400

jack

1710451943905

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

0

1

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1657579834988

1657638609830

0.5441666666666667

0.0249999999999999

ezLVaCNKcEGNoYkIEilM

{"NO": 110.44043832163447, "YES": 2.0797122828962875}

0.59325

predict-the-gasoline-price-on-augus

48.82863650358847

Predict the gasoline price on August 1

1659326340000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

8.977978076042984

True

play

MKT

public

1657321777141

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will choose the answer here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGASNYH", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGASNYH", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1659664988942

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EnopoletusHarding

1659111048443

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https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

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0.025000000000000022

1659111048316

0.59325

0.5000000000000004

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will-elon-musk-pay-twitter-a-breaku

1910.4408919406474

Will Elon Musk pay Twitter a breakup fee?

1666937534063

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

4.512725905818343

True

play

NO

public

1657322062933

Adrian

Will Elon Musk settle with Twitter to pay them damages for not acquiring Twitter?

BINARY

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100

ahalekelly

1710451896801

0

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19

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

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1666931268412

1664903457404

False

0.01689546175188003

0.8579193266012581

hHCpXA8qTB3cwMUjrssa

{"NO": 498.4468863739101, "YES": 510.7131962554666}

0.8549300875116501

if-elon-musk-pays-twitter-a-breakup

295.15642882414227

If Elon Musk pays Twitter a breakup fee, how much will it be?

1668143484469

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

0.4238689364722874

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657322335565

Adrian

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1668143484469

510

ahalekelly

1710451940768

0

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

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1659046502882

1657347778244

False

0.22310020035451666

bgCaKOug5t1QcuOgFYRM

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0.15319967412594887

will-putin-be-revealed-to-have-seve

1163.9432228806215

Will Putin be revealed to have severe illness by the end of 2024?

1735649940000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

9.717855545352538

False

basic

public

1657323774596

Keepcalmandchill

Resolved Yes if Putin is revealed by credible information to have a life-threatening or permanently disabling illness.

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1000

Keepcalmandchill

1719777090896

0

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1

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will-netanyahu-again-become-the-isr-6089d91ef4d6

18166.634572525287

Will Netanyahu again become the Israeli Prime Minister before 2024?

1674603448614

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

1.525458723283287

True

play

YES

public

1657323887544

Keepcalmandchill

BINARY

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1674603448614

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Keepcalmandchill

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0

27

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["israeli-politics", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israel", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1673835903741

1672430874299

0.97

0.5000000000000002

1pCHeigKGFmcJ4toVsKX

{"NO": 460.6254370793041, "YES": 21.709613050046016}

1

planecrashrot13-jvyy-cvyne-fubj-hc

664.1195086176153

[planecrash][ROT13] Jvyy Cvyne fubj hc va gur Qbbz Onfr?

1658144386332

h7wTEZviKtNS9nRKm2L5DSVznuh1

cpmm-1

0

3.8407012541367695

True

play

YES

public

1657327752862

Asquil

This question resolves YES if Pilar shows up at the Doom Base. This question resolves NO if the story ends without that happening. This question resolves N/A if the story ends with the question being somehow ambiguous, or the story doesn't end by the deadline.

BINARY

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1658144386332

100

Asquil

1658297458771

0

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13

0

0.5

1658144201215

1658297458884

0.7240138941212834

0.21675676351827894

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{"NO": 177.6360613922442, "YES": 1618.0779197757422}

0

will-joe-rogan-have-elon-musk-on-as

1493.0822772457266

Will Joe Rogan have Elon Musk on as the JRE Podcast again before the end of the 2022 year?

1672549140000

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

cpmm-1

0

2.1368179585279834

True

play

NO

public

1657332541297

Eli Gaultney

In light of the Twitter stuff, more kids, etc., I could see Elon having a real reason to get out ahead of the negative PR. JRE has helped in the past (and he's a genuinely interesting guest to be fair). Do you think he'll make his fourth appearance before the end of the year?

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 5.655949256628108, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673108874167

340

EliGaultney

1710451917170

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

20

0

2

19

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1672543674914

1672559546863

0.03

0.22202178971336425

PFKGZ6GJuLJWQDGoM6vB

{"NO": 91.71593447417263, "YES": 808.6794408098632}

0

does-twitter-have-a-special-case-th

842.7797325134734

Does Twitter have a special case that promotes negative coverage of Elon Musk?

1680988478163

4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1

cpmm-1

0

3.4707916977780546

True

play

NO

public

1657333805202

James Babcock

Resolves positively if, as a result of litigation discovery, whistleblowing, or other reliable disclosure, it's publicly revealed that Twitter is or has been specifically biasing some or all Twitter feeds towards negative coverage of Elon Musk in particular. Resolves negatively if nothing like that is revealed by the e...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.360939711204884, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680988507355

180

JamesBabcock

1710451920671

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTH5k_W1_a-3n0Q0TpwHPtHcXItwv4WDjHESDoqQ=s96-c

21

0

20

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1680968462107

1680973444333

False

0.03

0.5000000000000002

Xu7KXEjvImUcqv34Q893

{"NO": 51.47581817735274, "YES": 194.26597486117453}

0.20947115889759305

planecrash-rot13-jvyy-gur-crefba-pn

250.14530072829365

[planecrash] [rot13] Jvyy gur crefba pnyyvat gurzfryirf "Zvabe Punenpgre" or erirnyrq nf n cerivbhfyl-xabja punenpgre?

1672549140000

7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2

cpmm-1

0

2.9377056479720505

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657334486661

journcy

Will the person calling themselves "Minor Character" be revealed as a previously-known character? This market resolves YES if the person on Keltham's research time calling themselves "Minor Character" is revealed in the text to be a character we were already aware of. This includes characters referenced in the planec...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672586779149

100

journcy

1667245305733

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c

13

0

1

13

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392929}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529545181}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1667245305170

0.21

yuzUYeJNHEB44o97twNA

will-my-cat-still-be-hissing-at-my

0

Will my cat still be hissing at my girlfriend's cat at the start of my next semester?

1657347605405

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657347565667

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Warning: resolution criteria is fairly subjective Basically the current pattern is that M (my cat) is very skittish, whereas O (her cat) is very derpy and playful. O tries to play with M, but M wants none of it. They do sometimes sleep near each other, and are civil in maybe ⅔ of their interactions

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657347605405

220

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657347567096

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ec654d737f4b", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yuzUYeJNHEB44o97twNA", "createdTime": 1657347565892, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492231}]

["olivia"]

1657347565667

True

0.49999999999999933

N9XcpGmTXH4a06LcREXH

{"NO": 138.7794444570359, "YES": 72.0567807366882}

0

will-my-cat-still-be-hissing-at-my-00aab50b21fd

518.0026352026309

Will my cat still be hissing at my partner's cat at the start of my next semester?

1661926800000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.8260489404939215

True

play

NO

public

1657347648729

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Warning: resolution criteria is fairly subjective Basically the current pattern is that M (my cat) is very skittish, whereas O (her cat) is very derpy and playful. O tries to play with M, but M wants none of it. They do sometimes sleep near each ot...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.01983127958713, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661999505600

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1661999496519

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

17

0

1

18

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["olivia"]

0.5

1661922465326

1661999492827

0.6582333957531259

PKhzWDlIWS4zFAY7tCk5

what-automaticallycreated-markets-w

242.99647889506724

What automatically-created markets would you like to see?

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.751757036453729

True

play

5f125fba9e28

public

1657348520006

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve to the ones I decide are plausible to implement in equal proportion. This may include automatic resolution if feasible. Jul 9, 2:37am: please ignore the "in equal proportion" part. I will resolve to market among the plausibly implementable answers

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673757587847

1019.9999999999997

LivInTheLookingGlass

1668276967141

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

13

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "868e80cff250", "prob": 0.0859967964394896, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6413268284501306, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.444579814654023, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PKhzWDlIWS4zFAY7tCk5", "createdTime": 1657348520289, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

3

13

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364824}]

["olivia"]

1668276966978

1658102718502

{"5f125fba9e28": 100}

True

0.1362820730346214

7nvxnscoldMIN6GMzE2F

{"NO": 787.2652065930586, "YES": 3115.7059491591363}

0.03834007093070797

will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect

3015.7320200057193

Will the 2024 US presidential election be stolen from the rightful victor?

1737392400000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

0

10.178646889567531

False

basic

public

1657353719449

Matthew Barnett

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the 2024 United States presidential election is stolen from the rightful victor, and NO otherwise. For the purpose of this question, a US presidential election is said to be stolen if the presidential ticket that cl...

BINARY

{"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 0.00032086651329497895, "month": 0.0003208665132949373}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.484955184787392, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MatthewBarnett

1720003017462

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

26

1

16

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672819016551}]

["us-politics"]

0.11176185755731091

0.5

1720003013883

1692737322761

ILOIjMWX1qjoK4TFBbe6

what-true-reason-will-be-revealed-b

644.6527454885315

What true reason will be revealed by September 1st 2022 for Abe's assassination?

1662091140000

TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.681736581225639

True

play

50ae6b341fca

public

1657368499340

Quinn

https://nypost.com/2022/07/08/motive-revealed-in-assassination-of-japans-ex-pm-shinzo-abe/ HT https://manifold.markets/SG/what-is-the-most-plausible-motive-f NY Post writes: > In an interview with investigators, Yamagami allegedly admitted to plotting to kill Abe because he thought the ex-prime minister was connecte...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663791332373

460

Quinn

1663791359486

0

https://firebasestorage.…21d-973557914f65

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4ad3e4d4ea41", "prob": 0.01900675851267732, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3703881753305574, "userId": "TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.11679450674078, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ILOIjMWX1qjoK4TFBbe6", "createdTime": 1657368499578, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

10

1662043365275

1663791354934

{"50ae6b341fca": 100}

True

0.21728146151482086

M5pVX9b5KSWajxRG7NcL

{"NO": 374.9211641955621, "YES": 16697.58424537782}

0

will-jon-stewart-run-for-president

18878.710652271526

Will Jon Stewart run for president in 2024?

1705449540000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

1.095672509811704

True

basic

NO

public

1657380999055

FRC

Resolves yes if Jon Stewart runs for president, no if he doesn’t.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 33.14581999686201, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705475946386

1020

FRCassarino

1705475946611

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

0

48

0

1

24

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529758922}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529757005}, {"name"...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.5

1705419402698

1704614182657

0.01

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.4953593121512372

Se6084ZIuEKqIBzIX4nI

{"NO": 148.97404617514056, "YES": 165.98168717355182}

0.46837511254900055

will-alex-hannold-die-in-a-climbing

306.31702916276544

Will Alex Hannold die in a climbing accident before 2030?

1667421084693

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

1.9518535780062316

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657381271728

FRC

Resolves to YES if Alex Hannold dies in a climbing accident before Jan 1st 2030, NO if he doesn’t. Disclaimer: I know this question is in very poor taste, and I might resolve as N/A early if somebody makes a good argument for this to not remain up. I wish Alex Hannold all the best, but I watched Free Solo yesterday an...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667421084693

160

FRCassarino

1667648620502

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

10

0

12

0.5

1667398429827

1667648615562

0.46837511254900066

0.4999999999999999

QwevfstPdvoiUAsqI8Vp

{"NO": 284.4785578327656, "YES": 35.15203422072546}

1

will-we-go-to-the-beach-on-july-30

242

Will we go to the beach on July 30?

1659239940000

zLpFVhwEcfNu65nfIfy1YZtLA7F2

cpmm-1

0

3.295895946473344

True

play

YES

public

1657387488783

CR

This question resolves if I we make it to the beach (3 hours away) on July 30, 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.275479987211063, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659294340422

100

CR

1659204209808

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw-JWnX4oWWpjqwTnV3wGYiH7sV3eMBkeI_MJdU=s96-c

5

0

1

0.5

1659204208622

0.8900229355554218

jj5Hq1kpYUR4sqnabvUq

where-will-ctat-be-working-at-on-ma

718.0165612445674

Where will ctat be working at on Mar 1, 2023

1677657600000

Cx70cYCCuKXhDioBH40PAHuPDP23

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.700643409643257

True

play

43f4e31afcd2

public

1657398372460

ctat

I prefer not sharing all my personal details in a public place when it comes to job considerations, so I created a Google doc for this: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J61x5lSWMfLQOJZ9KQAgFQmDfT5tYWu6Yd7hCTqizSk I will include updates in the above Google doc and also update my description on this market to reflect...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677658029567

500

ctat

1677652036717

0

https://firebasestorage.…363-57a55356d2f4

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "192166ee58f0", "prob": 0.03194533508860531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5637312414009787, "userId": "Cx70cYCCuKXhDioBH40PAHuPDP23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.083015610287486, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jj5Hq1kpYUR4sqnabvUq", "createdTime": 1657398372756, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

7

1677652036539

{"43f4e31afcd2": 100}

True

0.5611755975834253

tOuBk3qBuwFzNuY3U6MK

{"NO": 12242.751695229685, "YES": 36.601987877371435}

1

will-the-stepn-token-gmt-fall-below

12566.131162335034

Will the STEPN token ($GMT) fall below $0.50 any time before the end of the year?

1667358237183

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.2359132083042113

True

play

YES

public

1657402910065

SG

According to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/green-metaverse-token/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.912650502201021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667358237183

490

SG

1667358194903

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

10

0

9

0.5

1667358194709

1667357864429

0.9539942503301284

0.5000000000000001

f9bS1B7IHH9QtRhTfMIU

{"NO": 73.17023497356136, "YES": 137.09646797837183}

0

will-i-test-positive-for-covid-tomo

259.51816071196754

Will I test positive for COVID tomorrow?

1657463434348

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-1

0

2.818537375940058

True

play

NO

public

1657406665257

Devansh

I have been in an environment with similar or lower COVID rates to base Alameda County rates. This morning, I took four COVID tests - a rapid antigen test which was extremely faintly positive, a Cue test which was positive, a rapid test (swabbing my throat and nose) that was negative, and a Cue test that was negative (...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.39102738978583, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657463434348

100

Devansh

1657457576229

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

9

0

0.5

1657457574915

1657431058966

0.34798774102758456

0.5000000000000001

UJ4bo1BGonhY6TpoyE9j

{"NO": 21.712034215375382, "YES": 464.9452921763391}

0

will-jose-alba-be-found-guilty-of-a

552.0183632506053

Will Jose Alba be found guilty of any form of homicide?

1658330501729

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

3.837200702853587

True

play

NO

public

1657408308058

Gigacasting

https://nypost.com/2022/07/09/nyc-bodega-clerk-jose-alba-tried-to-avoid-confrontation-that-led-to-his-arrest-video/amp/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.036522411319229, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658330501729

100

Gigacasting

1658330293899

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

5

0

0.5

1658330293733

1658329492187

0.153161845945327

0.5000000000000002

G7s1G7HC5NjDzRwYrylM

{"NO": 34.68911404021747, "YES": 288.27487460205253}

0.10740861291083686

poll-do-you-contribute-to-openstree

194

[Poll] Do you contribute to OpenStreetMap?

1657514602192

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.308684840675366

True

play

MKT

public

1657408704302

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve N/A. I am just really curious what the overlap between these communities looks like

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8330797889373978, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657514602192

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657507032093

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

8

0

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492226}]

["olivia"]

0.5

1657507031928

1657506779546

0.10740861291083686

0.3301319717341601

ObI0q2DEVC8VkEFG7K73

{"NO": 193.42830247400002, "YES": 2939.421153782831}

0

planecrashrot13-jvyy-ebintht-or-ery

5185.211902294061

[planecrash][rot13] Jvyy Ebintht or eryrnfrq naq xvyy ng yrnfg 1 zvyyvba crbcyr?

1685321397234

1byffozk9qMdipy9hkZI5jyIx222

cpmm-1

0

1.312244287988888

True

play

NO

public

1657414378836

Arete

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Rovagug be released and kill at least 1 million people? Resolves YES regardless of who is responsible for Rovagug's release. Resolves YES even if exact casualty figures are not stated, if it can reasonably be inferred that at least 1 million p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.731916028464875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1685321397234

540

Arete

1685321377717

0

https://firebasestorage.…760-5f342ac4207c

46

0

40

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529543720}, {"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529392144}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "6awvfZlo4qRHe9uh3mPR6EASFSi1", "groupId": "1j...

["glowfic", "culture-default", "planecrash"]

0.5

1685073021750

1685321374083

0.03

0.21211810128700542

NwA7UZQuNh3FeGhBLxdb

{"NO": 959.6052619238585, "YES": 1030.8903513265398}

0.20038960359054123

will-i-do-action-by-2025

481.44069646227524

Will I [do action] by 2025?

1735793940000

mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3

cpmm-1

0

9.682092579361203

False

basic

public

1657416228412

Nuño Sempere

BINARY

{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0437536865859305, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NuñoSempere

1687115678275

0

https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e

16

0

5

0.5

1687115677953

1657454474279

sLso9IdeDd90aQUz56vU

what-interventions-will-i-judge-to

489.1962457936785

What interventions will I judge to be the most successful at improving my dating life?

1665626283564

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.713179875263622

True

play

MKT

public

1657421578090

Austin

Inspired by Vlad's market.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4437417119087559, "platformFee": 0.11093542797718897, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665626283564

1639.9999999999995

Austin

1665311856497

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

28

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1536700ab9d0", "prob": 0.04254691263460594, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.48246956862198637, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.85723850292361, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sLso9IdeDd90aQUz56vU", "createdTime": 1657421578406, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

32

[{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1659121329932}, {"name": "Life intervention", "slug": "life-intervention", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "hlgJn9tiQAnKxx07j5bc", "createdTime": 16646...

["recommendations", "life-intervention", "sex-and-love"]

1665311856282

1665079923988

False

{"1167759d2f02": 16.666666666666668, "3ead94d92a68": 33.333333333333336, "bd166e527b0e": 50}

True

0.5830960728285638

YWNfoZhum1VjlyJvkxR8

{"NO": 1500.0370725501089, "YES": 25.504270186191007}

1

will-manifold-allow-you-to-publish

1506.3615539578598

Will Manifold allow you to publish questions ONLY to groups, NOT to the main feed, by the end of the year?

1671152506821

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.9328887004920094

True

play

YES

public

1657422988389

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

This will only resolve to YES if it is both documented and available in the API Jul 10, 12:52am: Additionally, this ought to work with the fact that posts can be in multiple groups, should that be implemented

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.121621007832411, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671152506821

160

LivInTheLookingGlass

1671152499914

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

17

0

16

[{"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1658529558842}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364813}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8X...

["groups-suggestions", "olivia"]

0.5

1671152499741

1671151844620

0.9

0.2726666666666666

8V087yCoUzttm7jLy2Mj

{"NO": 100.42071698281643, "YES": 98.88634686476651}

0.251

how-many-mass-shootings-will-take-p-b355f3f389a6

31

How many mass shootings will take place in 2022 in the US, as reported by massshootingtracker.site?

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.4951321656387755

True

play

MKT

public

1657435284810

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Will resolve a month later to allow for missing reports to come in (Copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/how-many-mass-shootings-will-take-p-3ea536a68b3c)

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.170783294493079, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673421024328

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657994666856

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

2

0

3

2

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529430070}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492242}]

["us-politics", "olivia"]

0.27266666666666667

1657994665545

0.251

0.558370056878501

Gwb6W9dQiMCwQVZYdlUp

{"NO": 1131.1455141000556, "YES": 824.9712552156775}

0.6341790245935889

how-many-months-from-june-2022-will-8ef3ce651194

358.4937892066647

How many months from June 2022 will it take for Starship to reach orbit and safely land?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.879726062415664

False

play

public

1657435532039

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Note that if the vehicle has a RUD shortly after landing, I will resolve to that number of months iff Scott Manly says the RUD was not caused by the landing (Copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/how-many-months-from-june-2022-will)

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.020340620817700827}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.4031766888421986, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1718844929639

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

12

0

8

[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["spacex", "space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.125

1718844926324

1718844905175

0.1136188072282612

tF07klKaKOhZHgspT1aG

{"NO": 166.79625530177162, "YES": 97.39963661169065}

0.05

how-many-children-will-elon-musk-fa

214.37531935288604

How many children will Elon Musk father in 2022?

1694806903591

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.931063531069297

True

play

MKT

public

1657436204765

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the number of children Musk acknowledges fathering that are born between 1/1/22 - 12/31/22. Market will resolve several in late January 2023. There are no known Musk offspring that have been birthed in 2022 as of yet.", "type": "t...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1694806909893

186.49704603231467

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1710451954693

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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0

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https://firebasestorage.…60d-ce37cc0ffad5

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Mana Seeds Experiment", "slug": "mana-seeds-experiment", "groupId": "ezH8vzlbGZr8W8R1duXz"}]

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1694806890683

0.05

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what-should-i-do-with-my-hair

89.90902506300316

What should I do with my hair

1672531140000

x6MyE80H4cbCl49qU1mlSLjEokx1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.866955423378474

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play

7f37d02ca302

public

1657452716087

Duke Gartzea

I am always changing my hair and I really need to stop... but I don't want to. Right now my head is shaved. By mistake. (a friend's faults). I could leave it like that. I could diy my hair in a hot pink shade. I could diy in blue. I could let it grow for a while, like for 6 months, with a mullet style. Or more. Jul 1...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672608736513

420

dukeGartzea

1666813193911

0

https://firebasestorage.…26d-f65909a21bb1

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0

ANYONE

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1666813192619

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{"7f37d02ca302": 100}

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u81hx6yAy2HcNjA3idyn

{"NO": 108.74321052372503, "YES": 2298.9941054338838}

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will-manifold-reintroduce-categorie

2679.6064983449332

Will Manifold reintroduce categories this week?

1658116740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.3893868953281565

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NO

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1657464574461

SG

Manifold previously allowed market creators to categorize their questions by category (e.g. business, science, etc.). We removed categories to focus on groups, but it seems like we might want to support both, as they solve different problems for users (i.e. discovering new markets versus participating in a community). ...

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0

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1658122015138

500

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1658114076032

0

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1658114074741

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{"NO": 196.1027994638293, "YES": 1834.5413431418185}

0

will-charitable-donations-through-m

1431.1732817004756

Will charitable donations through Manifold be tax deductible by the end of the year?

1672549140000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

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1.0148698438508408

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play

NO

public

1657464931692

SG

We are in the process of creating a 501c3 charity and seeing if there's a way we can offer our users tax deductible donations. If donations become tax-deductible any time before Jan 1, 2023, this market resolves affirmatively.

BINARY

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1672628215463

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SG

1672547089867

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20

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["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-for-charity"]

0.5

1672547089730

1669385750020

0.08

x627GRiDELdoRtFdCBDl

which-free-response-meme-will-go-vi

126.49330911135763

Which free response meme will "go viral" on Manifold in 2022?

1672549140000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.814981020078719

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play

MKT

public

1657465342894

Martin Randall

A free response meme is where people give similar free responses to a wide variety of free response markets because (they think) it's funny. For the purposes of this market a free response meme "goes viral" when it is posted by at least three people to at least five markets, not including this one. I will resolve N/A...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1691196591065

520

MartinRandall

1691196748366

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ANYONE

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8

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671827975714}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671827981966}, {"name": "Please R...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "fun", "please-resolve"]

1672545493554

1691196726489

{"312652e219a6": 25, "59ffee2b5606": 25, "70b6285fa2e1": 25, "f65c59a57b2c": 25}

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0.5042906901235982

R7BIIpk2V4gnp1Z35hCV

{"NO": 99.2234925039599, "YES": 122.02010572245135}

1

will-i-regularly-use-a-notetaking-a

213.58190964014298

Will I regularly use a note-taking app over the next month?

1660114740000

BgM0xobZ0dWJoBrCpFwUC2YcgDn1

cpmm-1

0

2.589769844830978

True

play

YES

public

1657473588193

hath

I'm trying to use my current note-taking app, Obsidian, more often, to record 1-on-1s I have and to write down plans I make for the future, as well as for gathering personal insights. This question resolves YES if I have written more than 10k words in either Obsidian or another note-taking app between today and the res...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.622998676536143, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660259992009

110

hath

1660101927805

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhCbmY0Lx380026nQ3agiA_FCJPd0SWGMms_z4GDHI=s96-c

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0

1

0.5

1660091644795

1660101923563

0.4527296323897813

0.5000000000000001

wkpSwrpUEKsWEq1iF0Ve

{"NO": 54.87032611687343, "YES": 728.9914755527473}

0

will-i-have-a-fever-during-my-postp

765.4386996629637

Will I have a fever during my post-Paxlovid rebound?

1658127540000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.1422343827569463

True

play

NO

public

1657478726248

Jack

Resolves YES if between now and when I recover from Covid, I measure my temperature at over 100 degrees F, as measured by a oral thermometer. I will make reasonable efforts to get accurate and consistent readings - so a noisy reading that is contradicted by other concurrent readings will not count. Context: My rapid ...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 9.304977878467401, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1658206643626

200

jack

1658206635088

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

9

0

1

[{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529464207}]

["jacks-personal-covid-questions"]

0.5

1657956293789

1658206632720

0.07

0.6110853838195054

LOWwGqyNIQwjn2f1SQv5

{"NO": 696.5850098442726, "YES": 108.01389277647137}

1

will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a

2013.730060391623

Will Twitter and Elon Musk settle a lawsuit over the deal to purchase Twitter?

1666739731264

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.9045790448263467

True

play

YES

public

1657480266576

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk said he is seeking to terminate the deal, Twitter's board says they will sue to enforce the deal. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1545533987724075010", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"hre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.836990162722687, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1667787379274

240

jack

1710451917290

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

3

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

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0.5

1666734394596

1667787353498

False

0.9101777222270993

0.9634265789371527

f6J8xIuOFt7JxV4I2UjW

{"NO": 3362.7585081927955, "YES": 340.1076088074015}

1

will-brittney-griner-return-to-the

5458.363344499325

Will Brittney Griner return to the US by end of 2022?

1670593995250

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

6.778539904728662

True

play

YES

public

1657480906243

Jack

Resolves YES if Brittney Griner is physically in the US at any point before the end of 2022, as reported by reliable media sources. Context: Brittney Griner is a WNBA player; she has been detained in Russia since February on drug possession charges; the US State Department determined that she was wrongfully detained. ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.4903666890376694, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670593995250

540

jack

1670593949466

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

31

0.5

1670593639116

1670593945865

1

0.5000000000000003

Xb9SGK9Iin85EJhlcLaC

{"NO": 145.95852669317992, "YES": 68.51261263427958}

0.7

poll-how-likely-are-you-to-interpre

346.47231001524665

Poll: How likely are you to interpret a question "Will X happen?" to really mean "Will X happen by close date?"

1658127540000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.8775029980293354

True

play

MKT

public

1657482317687

Jack

If the question asks "Will X happen?" and doesn't make it clear what happens on the close date, how likely are you to interpret the question as "Will X happen by the close date?" (i.e. it resolves NO on the close date if it hasn't happened yet)? As opposed to "Will X happen ever?" and the market does not resolve until...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.966323767024571, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1658363746865

100

jack

1658365073232

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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0

1

0.5

1658126339521

1658365068778

0.7

0.5

QxO0pjYhlHNnPLgnPrB7

{"NO": 87.44763966677647, "YES": 114.35414424111949}

1

will-the-discovery-of-a-bigfoot-sku

15

Will the discovery of a Bigfoot Skull in British Columbia be acknowledged as a hoax by the end of July?

1658401183042

absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52

cpmm-1

0

2.7815774123471373

True

play

YES

public

1657482975590

Joe Brenton

https://bit.ly/braveskull Resolves to YES if anyone participating in the “discovery” or production of the photos or videos confesses to being involved in creating a hoax. Betting closes July 24 11:59 pm Market resolves July 31 11:59 pm (unless resolved to YES earlier) My Policy = “Not betting” Applying the joy_vo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6458557588805167, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1658401183042

100

JoeBrenton

1658401080805

0

https://firebasestorage.…a58-3b7a49276e37

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0

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1657489791094

1658401076404

0.4333343242728137

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7pI0C4310IMdfGDOOwv1

{"NO": 45.374652126882786, "YES": 220.38736455844642}

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will-i-reach-the-top-10-on-the-top

1451.830084690353

Will I reach the top 10 on the "Top creators" leaderboard by the end of the month?

1659337140000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-1

0

3.0770092477614988

True

play

NO

public

1657483869831

SneakySly

Immediately resolves YES when I see that I am in the top 10 of the "Top creators" leaderboard. If I never reach top 10, then this market resolves NO.

BINARY

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1659337886599

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SneakySly

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{"NO": 114.1765325474552, "YES": 234.69476919505902}

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if-manifold-offers-a-graphql-api-ho

240.68840531846334

If Manifold offers a Graphql API, how many users will it have from one week after launch to two weeks after launch?

1704063540000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

2.213128866462103

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657489015839

^,^ Épi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution criteria is deliberately vague to make it harder to move the market by just making some request that fits the criterion and then abandonning it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The general p...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1705765654253

160

epiphanie_gedeon

1705765675142

0

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["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-85f7ac273716

3719.0399449154484

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of state legislatures in Moore v Harper, blocking state courts from ruling on federal election disputes?

1687876218808

rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73

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0

0.8706744084285578

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play

NO

public

1657495190436

Wilson Kime

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update June 15: if the Court dismisses the case as some parties are requesting, I will resolve N/A since the Court is neither ruling in favor of state legislatures nor blocking future action by state courts. That way we can focus on the question of...

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0

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1687921844612

560

wilsonkime

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0.12

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how-would-elon-musk-respond-if-a-de

355.80182882670294

How would Elon Musk respond if a Delaware judge were to order him to close the Twitter deal at $54.20?

1673676712363

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.931410007783708

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657497094100

Brian T. Edwards

This market will resolve according to my judgement at least 3 months after a ruling by a Delaware judge that enforces a specific performance clause in the acquisition agreement Musk signed with Twitter which orders him to liquidate and tender approximately $33B to fund and close the deal at the current price of $54.20....

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2453762730326612, "platformFee": 0.3113440682581653, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1673676712363

660

BTE

1710451918991

0

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13

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ANYONE

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["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "law-order"]

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1657587073763

True

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1kBRL3QjzEKEyTe8uoLN

{"NO": 525.3047607973936, "YES": 9319.123195969441}

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will-helion-achieve-breakeven-deute

20277.579438554065

Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024?

1704020340000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

0.6419530532803557

True

basic

NO

public

1657499065436

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: \"Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Heli...

BINARY

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1704140367328

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NcyRocks

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1703839505602

1691799982843

0.02

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will-helion-achieve-breakeven-deute-59548b0d04dc

7210.400386442944

Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026?

1767178740000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0.09375201219025522

9.669442962411669

False

basic

public

1657499119985

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: \"Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Heli...

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NcyRocks

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["fusion-energy", "nuclear-power"]

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1717499315840

1688069579061

0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 75.09317978896772, "YES": 133.1678859265612}

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will-jonas-clarke-middle-school-win

143.33169238632584

Will Jonas Clarke Middle School win the 2022 National Science Bowl middle school finals?

1657547234716

w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2

cpmm-1

0

2.8134733014766486

True

play

NO

public

1657508788567

Derik K

Resolves to YES if Jonas Clarke Middle School is reported as the winner of the 2022 middle school NSB finals by the official NSB Twitter account https://twitter.com/DOE_SC_NSB and website https://science.osti.gov/wdts/nsb/. Resolves to NO if Odle Middle School is the winner. Clarke is coming in to the finals with 1 lo...

BINARY

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0

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1657547234716

100

derikk

1657547187487

0

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[{"name": "Science Bowl", "slug": "science-bowl", "groupId": "Jc34kDpOPZ52g3s4PSN9", "createdTime": 1658529457512}]

["science-bowl"]

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1657547187312

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0.5983606557377049

on-what-day-of-2022-will-cgp-grey-p

80.13777805221841

On what day of 2022 will CGP Grey post his next animated, standard-length video?

1659898946608

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.0646281223551277

True

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MKT

public

1657521001545

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Qualifiers are given to try and avoid minute length videos and long Tesla uploads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.saturdaygift.com/current-day-number/", "type": "text", "marks": [{...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1659898946608

150

LivInTheLookingGlass

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0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

5

0

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104597016}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364819}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug"...

["internet", "olivia"]

0.5245901639344263

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1659895104490

0.5983606557377049

0.04485049833887044

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{"NO": 111.24168802695372, "YES": 10.343609390366765}

0.3355481727574751

in-liters-how-much-water-will-i-dri

40

In liters, how much water will I drink today?

1657599470147

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

8.454888917390923

True

play

MKT

public

1657521423822

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

This includes decaf tea, but does not include any sodas, juices, etc.

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

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1657599470147

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1657584742957

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

5

0

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492225}]

["olivia"]

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1657581579090

1657584739175

0.3355481727574751

ZMA6r6cqMhsl3IBz0mEk

poll-what-market-should-i-make

22

[POLL] What market should I make?

1658127540000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.9574067233278925

True

play

b620b99e5fe3

public

1657523666256

SneakySly

Submit ideas for markets I should make. Vote in the comments on which market you want to see made. I will make the winning market and if I like it I will even subsidize it with an additional M$100 in liquidity.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

1658169457354

280

SneakySly

1657665822564

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

2

0

ANYONE

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1

1657665802239

1657665816780

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{"NO": 48.249986411250234, "YES": 782.0330347495517}

0

will-dominic-cummings-join-the-gove

755.7759413928547

Will Dominic Cummings join the government in any role before the end of 2022?

1672531140000

V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2

cpmm-1

0

3.542448286085059

True

play

NO

public

1657525594614

Shiney

If Dom takes on some sort of role in the UK Government then this resolves to yes. Government here means the UK state not just e.g ministerial roles.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.921434200122806, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672641101696

140

Shiney

1671891939684

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba5-2fe833234863

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1

11

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1671891939443

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0.29397809303336886

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{"NO": 34.24461698623827, "YES": 1931.5076675068158}

0

will-david-frost-join-the-uk-govern

1986.4923324931847

Will David Frost join the UK government in any role in 2022?

1672617540000

V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2

cpmm-1

0

4.718556837481493

True

play

NO

public

1657525695271

Shiney

Resolves to yes if Frosty joins the government. Does not have to be a ministerial position. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672641071036

140

Shiney

1672630643151

0

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2

0

1

3

0.5

1672615666149

1672630641506

0.01

ythx60blbckIynuK1sAN

next-attorneys-general-of-the-uk-af

0

Next attorneys general of the UK after New Prime Minister in post

1657525868942

V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657525856884

Shiney

After the next proper Prime minister (either after leadership contest or maybe GE) Who will be the next Attorney General?

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657525868942

220

Shiney

1657525858357

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba5-2fe833234863

1

0

ANYONE

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1657525856884

True

UFqLddWYj5MQuz1p9IlX

next-attorneys-general-of-the-uk-af-7345e7291316

160

Next attorneys general of the UK after New Prime Minister in post

1662529292561

V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.790701557021372

True

play

e0bece7a0dce

public

1657526006170

Shiney

After the next proper Prime minister (either after leadership contest or maybe GE, but not e.g. if Raab steps in for a bit) Who will be the next Attorney General? Jul 11, 11:31am: if Timpson is left in post for a month after the new PM then I will treat him as the answer

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662529292561

300

Shiney

1662529282424

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba5-2fe833234863

1

0

ANYONE

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1

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659029400618}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1659029403750}]

["uk-politics", "politics-default"]

1662529281083

{"e0bece7a0dce": 100}

True

0.20426513885573327

Uv72mSGroHmId314DkOW

{"NO": 253.2972171488354, "YES": 579.9786512384723}

0.06373836237765576

what-will-be-the-total-amount-of-mo

371

What will be the total amount of money raised for charity by July 31

1659308340000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

1.0283311285456127

True

play

MKT

public

1657536955915

Manifold

Ends midnight UK time at the end of the month. Is based on the number on the charity page "Raised by Manifold users".

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.781245660781516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659355603328

300

Manifold

1659295746130

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

6

0

1

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["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-for-charity"]

0.20426513885573327

1659295744786

1657538727623

0.06373836237765576

0.5628101772339441

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{"NO": 403.2241353041702, "YES": 408.98022237929365}

0.6716886655243576

how-many-months-will-elizabeth-holm

2086.040926340956

How many months will Elizabeth Holmes be sentenced to serve in federal prison?

1668747540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.8939745936576036

True

play

MKT

public

1657551778424

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the results of Holmes's sentencing hearing tentatively scheduled for mid- to late-September.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-17 11:59 pm", "type...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 43.867448482008, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669103290381

506.05393824589345

BTE

1668735375485

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

13

0

1

14

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658716730823}]

["law-order"]

0.01

1668735375307

1658617352057

0.6716886655243576

0.5472403354333497

W6YuO5mibUx7z0pDiLWx

{"NO": 287.9992434684866, "YES": 1522.9989574295437}

0

will-private-markets-be-free-to-cre

1680.431521113403

Will private markets be free to create?

1684416525260

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

0.6850929066309555

True

play

NO

public

1657552172572

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conditional on private markets being implemented. This would allow for unlimited markets with close friends that don't clutter up the public feed of markets. Private markets would have a limit of M$1000 per person but betting wouldn't cost or earn ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.29148353913907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1684416553352

760

ian

1684408040486

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

1

29

0

1

26

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669332045244}, {"name": "Groups", "slug": "groups-suggestions", "groupId": "n9GzinVPUfT9TGKCJSiX", "createdTime": 1658529558772}, {"name": "Maniifold Features", "slug": "ma...

["groups-suggestions", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1684408039198

1684333702234

0.19

0.5

1tBzOZXYxcpBMJofbXFd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

bounty-20-mana-to-whoever-helps-me

0

BOUNTY: 20 mana to whoever helps me fix the Perso-Arabic font display issue on my computer

1658203140000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657554424593

Enopoletus Harding

You can bet yes or no if this market will be resolved positive or not, but I will resolve it N/A unless there are 20 betters. Anyway, I offer a 20 mana bounty (5 mana extra if it permits anti-aliased fonts) for anyone who can help me fix this issue. Here is my default Perso-Arabic font: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658244912757

100

EnopoletusHarding

1657554591593

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

0

1

0.5

1657554590173

0.5

0.5262935749670201

9A15RMczk2dFSs5zhgu7

{"NO": 136.1994795169594, "YES": 79679.25245334144}

0

will-manifold-average-10k-daily-act

226829.50543307394

Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?

1704130452082

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0.10820829999754725

0.07303309408989822

True

basic

NO

public

1657554524226

FRC

Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024. DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time). --- CONTEXT: In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to suc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 148.56644623773923, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704130452082

3940

FRCassarino

1704130454498

2.8

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

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123

0

60

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["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-business-future", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2519757309127527

0.5

1704117023756

1697820647793

0

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0MhHtZgPJDwNzmkrWr98

what-is-the-worst-thing-about-manif

8613.229323026604

What is the worst thing about Manifold today?

1658120340000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.6227051932216705

True

basic

MKT

public

1657555301166

SG

This market is a poll! Write down your answer and vote on others' responses. This market will resolve to the proportion of votes each answer receives over the course of the week. To vote, reply to an answer and write "+1" as the first two characters in your post. You can vote once per answer on as many answers as you ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.51684810745336, "platformFee": 1.37921202686334, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658161498032

3339.999999999999

SG

1658112100714

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

39

0

ANYONE

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1

1658112099384

1657916845107

{"345630b8c87": 4.3068005227872215, "02ddaba5603c": 2.8712003485248143, "2d074032b96e": 4.3068005227872215, "30175a91c04b": 2.8712003485248143, "32228ebdaeb6": 4.3068005227872215, "4565b5b52f02": 0.9435879758939092, "45da0e8d24df": 2.8712003485248143, "462dd565ea82": 4.3068005227872215, "463de9e6871f": 4.30680052278722...

True

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{"NO": 725.1795247374112, "YES": 1509.3943028402546}

0.4321784737729952

will-any-language-model-trained-wit

5182.381180174398

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

1767329940000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

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Vincent Luczkow

Small number arithmetic in the training set is fine, as is non-arithmetic. "Small" and "large" are relative: if the training set contains arithmetic up to 20 digits and it generalizes to 100 digits, the question resolves yes. I'll accept a subset of arithmetic as well, e.g. if it can only do large number addition but ...

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What is the next medium-large feature Manifold will implement?

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James

I will resolve this market once a new medium-large feature is in production. A medium-large feature is roughly defined as one that takes 3 or more dev days to implement, but I reserve the right to use my judgment. Rules: - Eligible answers for features must be submitted before the feature is in production

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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