CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

6qy94Eta7TenX9ZGqksu

what-are-the-next-5-bugs-we-will-fi

2631.363665927588

What are the next 5 bugs we will fix?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.635866975320946

True

play

MKT

public

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James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules: - Eligible answers must be submitted before the bug is fixed - Answers cannot be submitted by Manifold employees - The market resolves once 5 eligible bugs are fixed, each of which gets 20% of the pool. I hope this is good way of surface bug...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Bugs & UX issues", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1658529433665}]

["bugs"]

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k0ZeaiOKtJeWCwPOZyCp

{"NO": 1267.3160219406795, "YES": 823.09194085458}

0.7182480080400778

will-any-agent-perform-better-on-mi

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Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

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cpmm-1

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Vincent Luczkow

To clarify: the experiment is that there are two copies of an agent that runs on Minecraft (or some other open world game environment). The agent has the capacity to be fine-tuned with text. One version is passed a manual for the game as text (or text + images, but *not* video), the other runs without any finetuning. W...

BINARY

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vluzko

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["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "ancient-markets"]

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{"NO": 1325.0472000276998, "YES": 801.2729387374824}

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will-any-model-pass-an-undergrad-pr

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Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?

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cpmm-1

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Vincent Luczkow

The model receives each question as text (or text + images), outputs an answer as text + images, and is graded as part of a pool with human students who also took the test. "Pass" means >=70% Has to be a proofs-based exam, e.g. abstract algebra, topology, linear algebra if it's proofs heavy. There are probably unde...

BINARY

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if-a-delaware-court-orders-elon-mus

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If a Delaware court orders Elon Musk to buy Twitter at the original terms, will he comply?

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cpmm-1

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0.7032118486971932

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CANCEL

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1657577984411

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Elon appeals and wins the appeal, or if the deal doesn't go through because the banks back out or the govt blocks the deal, this also resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:"...

BINARY

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ahalekelly

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "please-resolve"]

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rhTPpMRpD0rvg7OFFMy6

who-will-be-the-2022-gravity-chess

281728.92326904763

Who will be the 2022-23 Gravity Chess Champion?

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cpmm-multi-1

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1657581571177

Andrew G

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will choose the individual reported as the winner of the First International Gravity Chess Tournament, according to the results posted on https://gravity-chess-tournament.andrew.gr.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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AndrewG

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ANYONE

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4

0.14640774682980426

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0.007850523383269034

[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969411}, {"name": "Gravity Chess", "slug": "gravity-chess", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "sYZVNt8Sk39UxMTDo1KL", "createdTime": 1658626978292}, {"name": "Sports"...

["sports-default", "gravity-chess", "chess"]

0.03925261691634517

1715839493588

1696169784402

True

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{"NO": 312.29381441724746, "YES": 32.02112734336551}

1

planecrash-is-the-guess-in-the-link

2046.7418289560849

[planecrash] Is the guess in the linked tag that it's Ione correct?

1660168740000

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cpmm-1

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3.388715660816783

True

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YES

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1657583401324

Gurkenglas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1838425#reply-1838425", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1838425#reply-1838425", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"...

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 20.91378853084444, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1681468138610

100

Gurkenglas

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[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1658529393963}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658529548543}]

["glowfic", "culture-default"]

0.5

1660081344607

1658167664133

0.91

0.5000000000000001

7AvdTi9H91FAADfkbpXj

{"NO": 5.67635163088255, "YES": 1761.694949550773}

0

will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-for-a-pr

1769.125889790414

Will Elon Musk buy Twitter for a price of less than $54.20?

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cpmm-1

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5.403726726391905

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NO

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1657586723240

Jack

Resolves YES if a deal for Musk to buy Twitter closes with a lower price than the originally agreed price of $54.20. Resolves NO if the deal closes at $54.20, or if Musk doesn't end up buying Twitter by end of 2023.

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 6.543572944967983, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1666994131949

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jack

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https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

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1666994113437

False

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0.4999999999999998

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{"NO": 173.20508075688795, "YES": 57.735026918962596}

1

forgive-me-food-group-for-i-have-si

143.93790547919704

Forgive me food group for I have sinned; I took chicken from chicken parmesan rice and dipped in Szechuan hot and spicy soup

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pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

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2.921597866301412

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YES

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1657589021190

Cedar

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.917392660563251, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1690054904916

100

Cedar

1690054903693

0

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[{"name": "Food Sins", "slug": "food-sins", "groupId": "fxpqVeFg7DMY4ix937XC", "createdTime": 1658529549148}]

["food-sins"]

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{"NO": 148.14249756573514, "YES": 67.50257464481254}

0.7

how-many-people-will-show-up-to-wag

50

How many people will show up to Wager Wednesday? (SF, 7/13 7pm)

1657776651763

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

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2.8493230365926463

True

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MKT

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1657613468172

Sinclair Chen

On the Wednesday the 13th I'll be hosting a prediction markets meetup in a conference room at 1177 Market Street in San Francisco. We'll be talking about forecasting-related subjects and maybe also be playing games that involve betting. If you'd like to come, feel free to comment below or ping me on discord. I suspect...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.8575024342648687, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657776651763

100

Sinclair

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https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

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0.5

1657745624195

1657762681627

0.7

0.49999999999999994

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{"NO": 128.8007566432422, "YES": 77.63929545614724}

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are-my-sunglasses-stolen

30

Are my sunglasses stolen?

1657633239662

KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2

cpmm-1

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2.8045325176285614

True

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NO

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1657619711402

nic

I am a student at the University of Bath. Yesterday (the 11th) I left my sunglasses in a music room and got locked out. I left a note before I left. This morning I returned to the music room and the glasses were gone. I asked at two different lost and found locations on campus and neither had them. If the sunglasses do...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 1.1992433567577796, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657633239662

100

nic_kup

1657633462320

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c

2

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0.5

1657632469477

1657633460843

0.6239136026822536

0.5

ZQTbDdYaGE2hTJtOQpyb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

which-world-leader-will-be-the-next

0

Which world leader will be the next one to die?

1657932863372

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657619744766

Keepcalmandchill

World leader = serving head of state or head of government of an independent country.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657932863372

100

Keepcalmandchill

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https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

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1657633827073

0.5

0.5000000000000006

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{"NO": 5.618909600789358, "YES": 1779.704731073647}

0

will-zvi-mowshowitz-win-at-least-5k

6367.384712506498

Will Zvi Mowshowitz win at least $5k from the EA Criticism and Red Teaming Contest?

1664727933781

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

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3.9307220272384877

True

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NO

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1657627781714

Zvi Mowshowitz

The contest is announced here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.65009466586643, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664727933781

100

ZviMowshowitz

1664741920318

0

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29

0

29

0.5

1664674404201

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0.0031472778787977806

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{"NO": 404.4974748479908, "YES": 24.722033193799234}

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will-flow-of-gas-through-nord-strea

637

Will flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 from Russia to Germany resume by end of day July 23?

1658445088009

absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52

cpmm-1

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3.6786199784638267

True

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YES

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1657629979374

Joe Brenton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the pipeline returns to operational flow by July 23 11:59PM in Germany (CEST GMT+2) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/ My Policy = “Not betting” Appl...

BINARY

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100

JoeBrenton

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{"NO": 65.46536707079767, "YES": 152.7525231651946}

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forgive-me-food-group-for-i-have-si-43b0cb12aef4

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Forgive me food group for I have sinned; I put scrambled eggs on cheese pizza

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cpmm-1

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2.861664758461182

True

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NO

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1657633525224

Ian Philips

Am I forgiven?

BINARY

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ian

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[{"name": "Food Sins", "slug": "food-sins", "groupId": "fxpqVeFg7DMY4ix937XC", "createdTime": 1658529549017}]

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{"NO": 99.21523245604808, "YES": 100.79097485791769}

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test-d5dea0b38bbe

20

Test

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2.772619758568794

True

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CANCEL

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1657639994186

Phil Bladen

BINARY

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0

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1658491530947

100

PhilBladen

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0

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[{"name": "Private", "slug": "private", "groupId": "2LCQyPg1UF5lnFTg6Q8h", "createdTime": 1658529390213}]

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0.5561949596491639

does-elon-musk-blink-first-in-the-s

25

Does Elon Musk blink first in the showdown with Twitter's chairman Bret Taylor?

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cpmm-1

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2.7789547965833696

True

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CANCEL

public

1657641773607

Cesium

Resolves YES if Musk is the first to offer a serious settlement to the game of nuclear chicken he is playing with Twitter and its Chairman Bret Taylor. For those of you unfamiliar with Bret, at least relative to your familiarity with Elon Musk, you should consider his background before you think Elon can just stiff a...

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1657644684258

110.6730324965347

Cesium

1710451914974

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-229e2ebcc1b3

2

0

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

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1657644669936

False

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does-elon-musk-blink-first-in-the-s-d755264ea862

914.2382691585561

Does Elon Musk blink first in the showdown with Twitter's chairman Bret Taylor?

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cpmm-1

0

3.851800321667791

True

play

YES

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1657644636028

Brian T. Edwards

Resolves YES if Musk is the first to offer a serious settlement to the game of nuclear chicken he is playing with Twitter and its Chairman Bret Taylor. For those of you unfamiliar with Bret, at least relative to your familiarity with Elon Musk, you should consider his background before you think Elon can just stiff a...

BINARY

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0

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1665420063286

165.50280385151427

BTE

1710451905199

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

20

0

19

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1665419788899

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False

0.9628512005322974

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{"NO": 99.72847011327569, "YES": 103.1907514450589}

0.07967032967032966

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PLEASE CHECK: THIS IS FOR THE WOMEN'S CATEGORY The answer will be chosen according to the result at the end of the event. The event will take place from July 22nd to July 23rd 2022 in Briançon, France. You can stream the event on (limited access in some countries): https://www.youtube.com/c/sportclimbing Some basic...

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50

Who will win the IFSC - Climbing World Cup (Lead Men) - Briançon (FRA) 2022?

1658415540000

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cpmm-multi-1

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Danny Kim

PLEASE CHECK: THIS IS FOR THE MEN'S CATEGORY The answer will be chosen according to the result at the end of the event. The event will take place from July 22nd to July 23rd 2022 in Briançon, France. You can stream the event on (limited access in some countries): https://www.youtube.com/c/sportclimbing Some basic k...

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[Poll] What % of notifications are you happy that you saw?

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Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll tip you a minimum of M$25 for good ideas on how to improve your notifications experience! Jul 12, 7:50pm: in addition to signalling your opinion, PLEASE put how often you use the site! Jul 13, 8:16am: I love the implied suggestions of rewritin...

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[Sports Climbing] Will Kiromal Katibin be able to break the 5.00 time in the next Speed World Cup?

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Danny Kim

The answer will resolve yes if Kiromal Katibin gets any record below 5.00 seconds. Notes: Kiromal Katibin has set 5 world records in the past 5 speed competition events. Decreasing the world record time from 5.17 => 5.10 => 5.09 => 5.04 => 5.00 Here are the links to the videos of his world record climbs. 5.17 - Ma...

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How many days from July 13th will there be before I go in an indoor public space without a mask (Restaurants, subway, etc)?

1672527540000

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1657682812158

^,^ Épi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I take the subway without a mask, or enter a public indoor space without one, this market resolves immediately.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm interested to know how long I will contin...

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Bionic

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-weird-unlikely-thing-will-happ Doing this was fun for me last time, so I've decided to run it again. Description: At the close of this market, I will order the responses from most likely to least ...

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Bounty: Is this a reasonable way to assess my risk re: sperm cryogenesis?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

In part I want to make sure that this is available to other people who might need it, but more truthfully I just want someone to check my math and sign off on things The only part of this desmos graph that might seem strange is the integral, but that is just a hack to implement argmax() so I can find the number of at...

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will-seattles-temperature-reach-90

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Will Seattle’s temperature reach 90 degrees F, as reported by @KSeattleWeather?

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maniman

https://twitter.com/kseattleweather/status/1547065105115860992

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What are effective ways to reinforce a habit of frequent journaling?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

I will resolve in proportion how useful they seem for me in particular. This is, unfortunately, arbitrary. If enough people comment asking for it, I will instead resolve to MKT

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how-many-unplanned-money-stuff-colu

312.4172275458841

How many unplanned Money Stuff columns will Matt Levine write while on break, now through end of July?

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cpmm-1

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Jack

Matt Levine writes the Money Stuff newsletter https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine. He sometimes goes on break and announces that he won't write the newsletter for some period of time. Sometimes, those breaks are interrupted by unplanned columns about breaking news, and recently most o...

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How many TikTok videos will my partner &I send to each other from now until market close?

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2.821605055241281

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CANCEL

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1657692355997

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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100

LivInTheLookingGlass

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-lake-superior-reach-record-low

0

Will Lake Superior reach record low levels by end of April 2023?

1657692976996

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657692927449

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

As measured by monthly average here: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dashboard/GLD_HTML5.html I note that it was 1cm away from the previous record low this March

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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will-lake-superior-be-below-recorde

1568.7177888275892

Will Lake Superior be below recorded average level by end of April 2023?

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cpmm-1

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2.7061220963966948

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NO

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1657693101254

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

As measured by monthly average here: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dashboard/GLD_HTML5.html I note that it was 1cm away from the record average this March

BINARY

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111.53760625792916

How many people will subscribe to r/ManifoldMarkets in one month?

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cpmm-1

0

5.352856809253863

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MKT

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1657694297547

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

#Manifold

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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will-the-shoes-i-just-ordered-off-a

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Will the shoes I just ordered off Amazon fit?

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2.776725771707755

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1657694458079

Rai

First time buying shoes online. Ordered according to my EU size, converted to US size. Resolves to YES if the shoes fit.

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should-i-try-a-pickle-with-peanut-b

69

Should I try a pickle with peanut butter?

1658181444880

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cpmm-1

0

2.7731595715621062

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1657696878719

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

For context, I do not like pickles

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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will-feminizing-hrt-make-me-like-pi

975.2227688665141

Will feminizing HRT make me like pickles?

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1657696923104

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.57951272066221, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664258611886

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710462489474

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

0

20

0

20

[{"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7"}, {"name": "🏳️‍🌈 LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy"}, {"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e...

["food", "lgbtqia", "trans-questions", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1664101641849

1672122502100

0.9492520012385726

tmQ7mjVFnDrkhAZrJIWL

what-will-be-the-most-wishlisted-up

159.74533260635752

What will be the most wishlisted upcoming Steam game this month?

1659337140000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.815989657582319

True

play

a17b8aa37a96

public

1657702697301

SneakySly

According to https://steamdb.info/stats/mostwished/ what will be the #1 most wishlisted game when I check at the end of the month.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.48, "platformFee": 1.12, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1659338033306

360

SneakySly

1659298803332

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "fdc888403df3", "prob": 0.19884607298211146, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.887726121018984, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.89583380922125, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tmQ7mjVFnDrkhAZrJIWL", "createdTime": 1657702697510, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411836}]

["gaming"]

1659298803193

{"a17b8aa37a96": 100}

True

UgeE2gikoJnqQtKX6LgT

what-steam-game-releasing-on-20-jul

2959.3463715724038

What Steam game releasing on 20 July 2022 will have the most followers?

1658386740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.633183589264898

True

play

29d238f04f76

public

1657703404140

SneakySly

At market resolution I will check https://steamdb.info/calendar/ and https://steamdb.info/upcoming/#releases-on-2022-07-20 and award the winner to the title with the most followers.

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 61.409620406926884, "platformFee": 15.352405101731721, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658428292144

500

SneakySly

1658434622460

0

https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "131fdf4a18cd", "prob": 0.0013294073407752063, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005173741210678787, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.8865914476755696, "textFts": "", "contractId": "UgeE2gikoJnqQtKX6LgT", "createdTime": 1657703404388, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

1

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411531}]

["gaming"]

1658386685889

1658434620205

{"29d238f04f76": 100}

True

VukqsivPfzyFWNI7SsPo

what-object-is-airy-from-one

30

What object is Airy from ONE?

1660345526086

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.939478067851447

True

play

3ab72a66e28c

public

1657704853039

Tetra

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.8, "platformFee": 1.2, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660345526086

280

Tetraspace

1657704867829

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d13b4a4e26a5", "prob": 0.591715976331361, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 68.8122686868953, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.48046539395775, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VukqsivPfzyFWNI7SsPo", "createdTime": 1657704853237, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

1657704866412

{"3ab72a66e28c": 100}

True

0.5000000000000002

tAk5PZJxLfAQmPyvmmJS

{"NO": 553.4511515683623, "YES": 18.06844194227826}

1

in-a-month-will-i-think-that-london

673.0300332480205

In a month, will I think that London housing costs are mainly driven by a lack of supply?

1660341540000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

3.6913816532582713

True

play

YES

public

1657710707760

Nathan Young

This question resolves yes if I meeting my current opinion and no of I change it. Feel free to bet in the market then argue with me. Jul 13, 2:37pm: I'm intending to be pretty generous here, I've bought some extra M for this purpose. I want to be convinced if such evidence exists.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.24405820950004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663601038940

100

NathanpmYoung

1659032904767

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

8

0

1

9

[{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769993}]

["housing-markets"]

0.5

1659032904600

1658772487908

0.9683852624696727

0.4781648028770926

ltoca3SYYyqGI1Vya3VU

{"NO": 186.35062655876618, "YES": 50.69674194622375}

0.8167342277897933

a-week-after-i-publish-my-article-e

261.15999862787646

A week after I publish my article explaining my issues with my potato diet, how much karma will it have?

1657929540000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

2.986055201989751

True

play

MKT

public

1657710999095

^,^ Épi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have participated in the potato diet last month ( https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/ ), and have had several issues with how SMTM handled it, the recap they've written ( https://slimemoldtimemold...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.555609614765309, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658466465551

100

epiphanie_gedeon

1657926612116

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

8

0

1

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1658529423785}]

["slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.4781648028770921

1657926611993

1657840903452

0.8167342277897933

0.8124999999999999

qQqvivUmmFkoCY3U1fFa

{"NO": 40.820387068335165, "YES": 122.96955121177908}

0.5899072420948217

what-will-the-us-core-cpi-inflation

212.9741988909381

What will the US core CPI inflation report be for July 2022?

1658109692425

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

4.6979243379678595

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657720587246

Ben

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As reported by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658109692425

100

bcongdon

1658109769644

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

5

0

0.8125

1657858242875

1658109767684

eD6ZiROgkjZJybVAuPBA

what-is-the-current-thing-today-tra

420

What is the "Current Thing" today? [Tracker, resolves to Market]

1657726316161

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.706843798088367

True

play

MKT

public

1657725509254

FRC

This question is meant to track what the "Current Thing" that's dominating the internet (Twitter, Social Media, etc) at any given time: https://stratechery.com/2022/the-current-thing/ Examples from this year: Ukraine War, Elon Musk's twitter acquisition, $LUNA collapsing, etc. People should vote/bet for whatever they...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.000000000000001, "platformFee": 1.0000000000000002, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657726316161

360

FRCassarino

1657725987523

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cbcb4230c5bc", "prob": 0.03698224852071006, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6522518689928426, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.98463866857362, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eD6ZiROgkjZJybVAuPBA", "createdTime": 1657725509468, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

[]

1657725986073

{"14594ebd03cf": 0.8064516129032258, "161c1dc87d89": 1.1904761904761905, "3774b2836d48": 0.9600614439324119, "629b637a1200": 0.8832565284178189, "66b9a98aac86": 93.85560675883256, "949b0982e9e5": 1.036866359447005, "dc6acd599e82": 1.2672811059907836}

True

Pss1RwpjshrFZJzmdJ91

what-is-the-current-thing-today-tra-1e06c392032d

0

What is the "Current Thing" today? [Tracker, resolves to Market]

1657726370695

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657726335298

FRC

This question is meant to track what the "Current Thing" that's dominating the internet (Twitter, Social Media, etc) at any given time: https://stratechery.com/2022/the-current-thing/ Examples from this year: Ukraine War, Elon Musk's twitter acquisition, $LUNA collapsing, etc. People should vote/bet for whatever they...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1657726370695

220

FRCassarino

1657726336964

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7bc21c47a14f", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Pss1RwpjshrFZJzmdJ91", "createdTime": 1657726335504, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

1657726335298

True

omMI0dsgiTnB7NoSxsOO

what-is-the-current-thing-today-tra-5e3490b327f9

1906.5767484069122

What is the "Current Thing" today? [Tracker, resolves to Market]

1672504320000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.669938332103859

True

play

MKT

public

1657726403583

FRC

This question is meant to track what the "Current Thing" that's dominating the internet (Twitter, Social Media, etc) at any given time: https://stratechery.com/2022/the-current-thing/ Examples from this year: Ukraine War, Elon Musk's twitter acquisition, $LUNA collapsing, etc. People should vote/bet for whatever they...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1383660106802242, "platformFee": 0.5345915026700561, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1679451327952

900.0000000000002

FRCassarino

1716673259881

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2ed925441174", "prob": 0.012714779564508354, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.09619459620408483, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.469378657822236, "textFts": "", "contractId": "omMI0dsgiTnB7NoSxsOO", "createdTime": 1657726403789, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

17

19

[{"name": "The Current Thing", "slug": "the-current-thing", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "81vfqjdQEu557SFqp9BU", "createdTime": 1661169964118}, {"name": "FRC's group", "slug": "frcs-group", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "12UQvie9Z9Laymmmn8U3", "createdTime": 1662468148237}...

["the-current-thing", "frcs-group"]

1672503896879

1716673258444

{"3167cd8f9944": 1.3916698135786794, "c3a76b135ff7": 6.2702775278518486, "f009ad478d5b": 92.33805265856947}

True

0.10809412056696587

yb9i4Z24QdbwsiXrHwjO

{"NO": 993.4404653658122, "YES": 4926.079351642915}

0

will-there-be-war-between-usa-and-c

11092.546647219906

Will there be war between USA and China by end of 2023?

1704095940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

0.7980562825049788

True

basic

NO

public

1657728232291

Rai

Resolves YES if between market open and market close China and USA have been or current are de facto at war, as in people shooting stuff at each other in military conflict. As of time of writing, I consider Ukraine and Russia to be "de facto at war".

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.785438864183112, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704100170955

1300

agentydragon

1704100171578

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

1

74

0

1

26

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983079}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659851505522}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": ...

["china", "global-macro", "pacific-rim", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703275936102

1702717601781

0.02

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

0.4999999999999996

EX2AonZNXhKdM9R8fwTv

{"NO": 1896.10491776776, "YES": 47.46572784904484}

1

will-manifold-be-mentioned-in-the-n

2474.63719408781

Will Manifold be mentioned in the next Mantic Monday?

1660625890544

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

2.3699677308105542

True

play

YES

public

1657733894850

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We've been mentioned in every Mantic Monday since we launched except for the one this week (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-71122).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close da...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 30.910175686167037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660625890544

300

SG

1710462490767

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

28

0

1

[{"name": "📖 ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]

["acx", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1660621278667

1660617854835

0.9755780794713632

0.5000000000000002

k7IyDGyoJCmhDMpfLe7e

{"NO": 17.589533142701697, "YES": 568.5199214141321}

0

will-manifold-participate-in-sequoi

873.9466330288882

Will Manifold participate in Sequoia's ARC accelerator?

1660373940000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

4.123851703814755

True

play

NO

public

1657735330451

Austin

https://arc.sequoiacap.com/ We talked to Dan Chen on the Sequoia team who had a lot of experience with prediction markets in the past, and seemed to like the Manifold product as well.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.431371784526824, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1660494144717

100

Austin

1659004229872

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

11

0

1

[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429419}]

["manifold-investors"]

0.5

1659004228600

1658349201881

0.030010662694396256

0.5000000000000003

DBqyINK7gSKF3yeiogKR

{"NO": 148.15683415857646, "YES": 67.49604266851918}

0.6870153384383759

you-can-now-post-images-in-market-d

53

You can now post images in market descriptions

1658386740000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

2.84936059047598

True

play

CANCEL

public

1657740053656

Sinclair Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "in a week. In the meantime, enjoy this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "beautiful", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " im...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658430770066

100

Sinclair

1658430753780

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

5

0

1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529557284}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1658333155602

1658430750794

0.6870153384383759

XaxLLwHpm17XJZnH7ozI

who-will-launch-a-realmoney-conditi

164

Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?

1664607540000

uE42MZfkHEd6UQ31TxoOBgBuyMF3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1657744898799

Sebastian Deri

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prediction market enthusiasts have long touted conditional prediction markets as one of the unique benefits that prediction markets could provide. Conditional markets could be used to guide critical decisions, like Federal monetary policy. For exam...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

340

SebastianDeri

1704563795852

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpru_gqcDLCLnYoasuDW8LX8rz9orpZ8Qcz9iYlrg=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3aa508bd8a8e", "prob": 0.14348025711662074, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.22143383674469, "userId": "uE42MZfkHEd6UQ31TxoOBgBuyMF3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.07867143183111, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XaxLLwHpm17XJZnH7ozI", "createdTime": 1657744899076, "probChanges": {"day": -0.856519742883...

1

5

[{"name": "Polymarket", "slug": "polymarket", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "yeQpbHOQhxPyQifhmJrY", "createdTime": 1667133082676}]

["polymarket"]

1657770060763

1704563791172

True

0.5

5okZL6ppkfU7TZfPAbND

{"NO": 637.2500414772642, "YES": 15.69242738190826}

1

this-question-demonstrates-adverse

574

This question demonstrates adverse selection

1658412307748

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-1

0

4.287043827154827

True

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How many flight delays and cancellations will JFK have on July 15th?

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