CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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[Secret Histories] Will final release of Lucid Tarot indicate that Madrugad has Lantern as a principle

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Will any US places successfully change states by 2030?

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Andrew G

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How many people will join for Coworking Friday?

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Lee Man Hee says he will live forever. How old will he be when he dies?

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In which month in 2022 will Donald Trump announce he is running for president in 2024?

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Enopoletus Harding

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will-putin-no-longer-be-the-leader

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cpmm-1

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When will Donald Trump announce his candidacy for President?

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Elon-Twitter Outcome

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cpmm-multi-1

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after-hosting-jontron-on-his-second

13.05736244875022

After hosting JonTron on his second channel, what will the delta in Internet Historian's subscriber count be (as % of current)?

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cpmm-1

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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N.C. Young

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Will Baluchistan, Kashmir, Tibet be liberated before 2030

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How much will Elon Musk buy Twitter for per share, if he buys Twitter?

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2.27802666256365

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Jack

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Test of the API, please ignore

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What GitHub pull requests would you like prediction markets for?

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1

12

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411445}, {"name": "Futarchy", "slug": "futarchy", "groupId": "EJCOBN0yMJJ73x4Eh2L6", "createdTime": 1658529808208}]

["gaming", "futarchy"]

1660478181119

1661839125166

{"8b303c1a25e3": 100}

True

0.902204874512421

dSg7yqSiG3zeztTZLtAU

{"NO": 900.3391491974241, "YES": 188.7900197156514}

0.9777758958893242

in-how-many-days-from-20220718-will

849.2909634444334

In how many days from 2022-07-18 will Manifold merge its GraphQL API?

1735674180000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1658169956510

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to MAX if the associated pull request is denied", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minor risk statement: this is my first automatic market, and while I think it will work smoothly, I...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.569720046339341, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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220

LivInTheLookingGlass

1706382747829

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

9

0

1

5

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659853630443}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492246}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "o...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia"]

0.8996566681120064

1706382747681

1706382155513

0.899656668112006

UwhnfKR5UttIT3Vwk8Jo

{"NO": 15.50158749374433, "YES": 123.11231733495933}

0.5311077706072269

how-many-days-after-20220715-will-l

40.92222250639409

How many days after 2022-07-15 will Loans v2 be merged?

1661150175424

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

7.473266811869907

True

play

MKT

public

1658170157640

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to MAX if the associated pull request is denied", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minor risk statement: this is my first automatic market, and while I think it will work smoothly, I...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.171145531185151, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661150175424

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1661149936591

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

3

0

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529552394}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364813}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.8996566681120064

1661149933593

0.5311077706072269

0.8996566681120063

czLg8aNkQ0928INcbxwb

{"NO": 6.512960460523406, "YES": 135.6142688553512}

0.3009864451848362

how-many-days-after-20220715-will-r

45.77824971249896

How many days after 2022-07-15 will Range Limits be merged?

1658515984761

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

7.556854372515422

True

play

MKT

public

1658170355452

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to MAX if the associated pull request is denied", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minor risk statement: this is my first automatic market, and while I think it will work smoothly, I...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.0008860165805507, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1658515984761

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1658515930718

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

4

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529552545}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492237}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia"]

0.8996566681120064

1658515930590

0.3009864451848362

0.5

IAOUlKHdGnKEBKgGbsCI

{"NO": 65.8426975027556, "YES": 151.87713109083188}

0.22

how-many-republican-votes-in-the-ho

115

How many Republican votes in the House will the Respect for Marriage act get?

1658272707034

IxQPghXHnIaIf3tuE4FxeRXh3YM2

cpmm-1

0

2.0713138243443634

True

play

MKT

public

1658176096564

Rahul Sridhar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves via PROB to # of republican YEA votes for the Repsect for Marriage Act / 211 (number of republican congressmen) * 100%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"t...

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1658272707034

100

fortenforge

1658281676546

0

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1658247656584

1658281670722

0.22

bmKIVgWGBaVbDLzVNRwK

mistborn-what-will-the-title-the-lo

101

[Mistborn] What will the title 'The Lost Metal' refer to?

1668488340000

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.842857084650414

True

play

c47c2539be89

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1658179268047

Forrest

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1671118384946

520

Forrest

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https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

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ANYONE

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["cosmere", "books"]

1667515819240

1670771916448

{"c47c2539be89": 100}

True

0.27862432880691124

Ovujxo8zFnFLVm3em0SJ

{"NO": 66.46857181988238, "YES": 835.7409402476059}

0

will-the-berkeley-gossip-about-well

3327.8546346582266

Will the Berkeley gossip about well-funded (more than ever before) LLM company doing alignment work being announced by EOY (2022) end up being true and verifiable?

1672549140000

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

3.451709234808254

True

play

NO

public

1658180482922

Stephen Malina

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Twitter gossip (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi/status/1549060676966002688", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi/status/1549060676966002688", "class": "no-u...

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1672582169007

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StephenMalina

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

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1670948914692

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0.3310454461017689

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0

if-donald-trump-is-charged-with-a-c

9050.295718851869

If Donald Trump is charged with a crime in any jurisdiction will his supporters respond by engaging in political violence?

1682884242579

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

5.115982970963067

True

play

NO

public

1658185991795

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the reaction during the month following the date the first (if any) charges against Trump are announced.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:5...

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0

{"creatorFee": 5.909155580501827, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682884242579

291.4042542559017

BTE

1682883414958

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

27

0

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[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438529}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671559556937}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": ...

["magaland", "law-order", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1682868850549

1682883411510

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0.01

0.49999999999999983

9gbr3uwaTYWBIt1t2M5u

{"NO": 467.6422966613621, "YES": 21.38386555577415}

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will-willas-website-go-online-by-au

657.6790816757787

Will Willa's website go online by Aug 28

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pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

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3.860218111184491

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YES

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1658187945935

Cedar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved to Yes if anybody posts Willa's website in comment. Said comment gets upvoted a shit ton by me.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is Willa ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

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{"creatorFee": 5.352390728720475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1661740130699

100

Cedar

1661740176350

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

10

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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554279}]

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1661733814665

1661740168278

0.7375599453198253

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0.9181441782377464

starting-from-20220718-how-long-wil

1070.4171954445758

Starting from 2022-07-18, how long will it take me to implement automatic resolution for passage of bills in the US Congress?

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k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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1658189735044

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

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160

LivInTheLookingGlass

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https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

9

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0.5151980212387597

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will-the-summer-of-2022-june-21st-2

94.00289913061711

Will the summer of 2022 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada be one of the 5 hottest summers since the summer of 1935?

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gjLRpvdvtNdv29o6Vu1q8DT1FUH2

cpmm-1

0

2.1105194229414224

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NO

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1658193036660

Rational Ottawa

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if summer 2022 (June 21st, 2022 to September 23rd, 2022 inclusive) is in one of the top 5 positions when yearly average summer temperatures at the Ottawa, Ontario weather station are sorted from largest value to smallest value. The dat...

BINARY

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{"creatorFee": 0.6723520802227094, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1668721777331

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RationalOttawa

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https://firebasestorage.…cc9-cd6efa0f1c6d

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1663990500832

1691065015195

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{"NO": 39.56673266016479, "YES": 252.73757340261528}

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ai-box-can-manifold-convince-me-to

1197.6622507965706

[AI Box] Can Manifold convince me to let it escape the box?

1658818740000

YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83

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2.399895481718739

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play

NO

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1658195121112

SneakySly

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's do the AI box experiment! ( ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FmxhoWxvBqSxhFeJn/i-attempted-the-ai-box-experiment-and-lost", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/p...

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{"creatorFee": 18.630433150814994, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1658850418010

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SneakySly

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1658719551483

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{"NO": 132.8022236095157, "YES": 75.29994399343383}

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will-i-successfully-grow-2-toothach

245

Will i successfully grow 2+ toothache plants from seed?

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AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

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2.8126947357201266

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NO

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1658196158270

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here they are freshly planted! I've never grown anything from seed so honestly not very likely this will work. I won't be betting no, though.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.c...

BINARY

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0

{"creatorFee": 5.257102986431958, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1664631444311

100

ian

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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658529554432}]

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1664399836453

1663177354963

0.6381587714304685

mpgOk6Mhx2ipq1ihz1ie

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5

When will Marc Andreessen’s next 🐦-storm occur?

1658259439504

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.003055295544427

True

play

CANCEL

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1658210268779

Gigacasting

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1658259439504

320

Gigacasting

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https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

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ANYONE

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feature-suggestion-will-manifold-ad

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[Feature Suggestion] Will Manifold add the ability to tip markets?

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3.476031227886432

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NO

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1658212071587

SneakySly

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1660845294192

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SneakySly

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Test question to see if I can award myself money

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2.7725887222397816

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Colton Lewis

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How many people will come for Taco Tuesday tonight?

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Was the prior Manifold font better?

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