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0.5000000000000001 | 85BGqwMny8amDN4ixHBs | {"NO": 81.46403248897465, "YES": 122.75356000027871} | 1 | another-tory-leadership-contest-bef | 173.75447735993117 | Another Tory leadership contest before GE2024 | 1666334864282 | V4sy9E0XR8eDUmPyxWAwsC9zTwX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.793566284506227 | True | play | YES | public | 1658334653225 | Shiney | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is another Tory leadership contest before the next GE ( the one after 2019)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.677464642923632, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666334864282 | 100 | Shiney | 1666303524393 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1666303522571 | 0.3989080054073284 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6818181818181814 | ToYSVu4BpfsqSyvbPJzK | {"NO": 359.76647513491554, "YES": 82.2698777802518} | 1 | will-1day-sooner-submit-an-entry-to | 404.5758796380683 | Will 1Day Sooner submit an entry to Open Phil's cause exploration contest by the deadline? | 1660197540000 | xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8598105634305178 | True | play | YES | public | 1658344289888 | Gavriel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open Philanthropy is offering prizes for written work exploring cause areas, framed by the question, “What new cause area should Open Philanthropy consider funding?” You can read the details here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.openphila... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.840503485144177, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660288738983 | 150 | GavrielK | 1660288728451 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1659746096947 | 1660288726933 | 0.9035746989086619 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5737322145229345 | 12KfXdKbmDl3jF9BDEWQ | {"NO": 69.85805955030426, "YES": 789.5194846197624} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-get-the-majority | 767.7470474130464 | Will I be able to get the majority of my irl friend group to use Manifold in the next 2 months? | 1663455540000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.828397750337306 | True | play | NO | public | 1658345817517 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am currently visiting Korea for 2 months - I have a very close group of friends who I usually have to stay in touch with online, but now will be able... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.843514356129585, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663569590486 | 320 | SirSalty | 1663569715220 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "David's homies", "slug": "davids-homies", "groupId": "rGSQXM59oTkSVtdjXEzL", "createdTime": 1658529579776}] | ["davids-homies"] | 0.5 | 1663435305344 | 1663569710109 | 0.10641793604773624 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.05566999332301809 | 4tk7HfnbzN4FtNLCysdO | {"NO": 122.9033662334842, "YES": 78.05200020935644} | 0.078 | how-many-unique-users-will-my-digit | 99.16238374656393 | How many unique users will my digital futarchy have on July 31st, 2023 if I name it "Nomic"? | 1690862340000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.543634074156653 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658353808711 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the number of unique users that my digital futarchy has on July 31st, 2023. If I name it something other than \"Nomic\" or I fail to launch before December 31st, 2022, this question resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}, {"type": ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.294213450173475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1691645201103 | 120 | cos | 1683214986723 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | [{"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1658529584033}, {"name": "Futarchy", "slug": "futarchy", "groupId": "EJCOBN0yMJJ73x4Eh2L6", "createdTime": 1658529808013}, {"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "P67UKUCw... | ["futarchy", "nomic-garden", "nomic"] | 0.05 | 1683159326325 | 1683214983299 | 0.078 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05 | 0NHFMVW1JSNZmZXTb7ny | {"NO": 104.05812222387658, "YES": 46.96304984135147} | 0.10443868958055294 | how-many-unique-users-will-my-digit-c2766ff2c27b | 15 | How many unique users will my digital futarchy have on July 31st, 2023 if I name it "Ergo"? | 1658492599829 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.643018548702045 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1658353819299 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the number of unique users that my digital futarchy has on July 31st, 2023. If I name it something other than \"Ergo\" or I fail to launch before December 31st, 2022, this question resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658492599829 | 100 | cos | 1658373554949 | 0 | 2 | 0 | [{"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662044754232}, {"name": "Futarchy", "slug": "futarchy", "groupId": "EJCOBN0yMJJ73x4Eh2L6", "createdTime": 1658529807893}, {"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe... | ["futarchy", "nomic-garden", "nomic"] | 0.05 | 1658373530273 | 1658373555093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.15033963586596685 | rOJP7JQ0fOgDbrD8ju4J | {"NO": 96.30735744567478, "YES": 1867.4303083591064} | 0 | will-a-federal-protection-for-gay-m | 4147.769857548039 | Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law before the midterms? | 1667887140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.659496389657121 | True | play | NO | public | 1658406812594 | Matt P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves to YES if Joe Biden signs into law a federal protection for same-sex marriage before the midterm elections on Nov 8th. Purely executive action does not count. Such a bill has currently passed the House at time of this market's cre... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.09752994207684, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667965335454 | 200 | MattP | 1667920854269 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560739760}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507332}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politic... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-legislation", "lgbtqia"] | 0.5 | 1667883545229 | 1667920853738 | 0.009042700339722544 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999994 | TbyDiI4MNbtHDVpH3Qsd | {"NO": 534.8362948059462, "YES": 18.697309993945584} | 1 | will-biden-be-recovered-from-covid | 873.318872456859 | Will Biden be recovered from COVID no longer than August 6th? | 1659841140000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.944318384813281 | True | play | YES | public | 1658419611873 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "President Joe Biden has caught the COVID-19 disease. He has been vaccinated and is using the Paxlovid medicine. Nonetheless, he's very old.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.012477302399377, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659929132136 | 100 | MP | 1659821694695 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 14 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658529431733}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856969}] | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.5 | 1659821354231 | 1659821692425 | 0.9662219062549872 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24243831926071682 | 221enq1Qauk9U2zwBnwN | {"NO": 938.6649182897052, "YES": 1136.0203345321527} | 0.20912867148642517 | will-the-first-instance-of-an-ai-br | 263.00777639944164 | Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths? | 1924750740000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632797631762525 | False | basic | public | 1658420924998 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upon an AI running uncontrolled for over a month, and showing significant real-world effects (including market crashes, server crashes or internet denial, curing cancer, etc.) will at least 1,000,000 humans die as a fairly direct result by the end ... | BINARY | {"day": -0.00018955448914428907, "week": -0.00018955448914428907, "month": -0.0001895544891444001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4674731019341927, "platformFee": 0.30589224033501217, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1 | 1000 | Duncn | 1720163234445 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529443100}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1659016569645}] | ["technology-default", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1720163231274 | 1669220112891 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7440731378420168 | xlyooQalESTYuGSMw9MU | {"NO": 87.62897502973695, "YES": 104.64694073598294} | 0.7088421115268068 | bounty-get-this-resolved | 5 | Bounty: Get this resolved | 1658448230220 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.643873007911923 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1658437540665 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Get this resolved and make money (insider) trading on it ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/MagnusHambleton/will-global-venture-funding-be-lowe", "type": "text", "marks"... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658448230220 | 100 | Gigacasting | 1658437576774 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.7440731378420168 | 1658437575475 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 9SaHeCTcF8LsN8CETb8m | {"NO": 158.0951160738313, "YES": 63.25306086830634} | 0.7 | how-many-days-will-biden-isolate-fo | 157.30810169055482 | How many days will Biden isolate for Covid? | 1660355203843 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6546979379391873 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658445977166 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of days Biden is in isolation for Covid over the next month (based on official announcements or reliable media reporting). Today (Thu 7/21) is \"day zero\". For example, if he announces that he has tested negative on 7/28 and... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.317125880264811, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660355203843 | 100 | jack | 1660355192955 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658897109776}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658897119060}, {"name"... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.5 | 1659851319143 | 1660355190392 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ylAP7xtP3hynJtAN5CHP | bidens-term-will-end-with | 1791.8767320290501 | Biden’s term will end with? | 1737439140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1658448600295 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Impeachment-resign", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Impeachment-remove ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resign-scandal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8984825885553417, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1720157532520 | 0 | 22 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bc97fbe07384", "prob": 0.0009241940320316451, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.183438216316393, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 198.3010898790911, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ylAP7xtP3hynJtAN5CHP", "createdTime": 1658448600523, "probChanges": {"day": -0.004178341... | 19 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529513663}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856965}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-p... | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics"] | 1720157529430 | 1659064180327 | False | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | bKk1lyxByNUaoO5P5w5d | {"NO": 72.5500969313839, "YES": 1240.5221192897902} | 0 | will-flow-of-gas-through-nord-strea-6d782b6b8c1e | 1419.5761742479292 | Will flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 from Russia to Germany continue at over 25% capacity for trailing 7-day average through Oct 31, 2022? | 1659558748907 | absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.887874240610481 | True | play | NO | public | 1658451087556 | Joe Brenton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if the pipeline Physical Flow is < 430,000,000 kWh/day for trailing 7-day average at any time from August 1, 2022 to the end of Oct 31, 2022 (Germany -Central Europe Time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.326941941583605, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659558748907 | 300 | JoeBrenton | 1659651290352 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406873}] | ["stefans-group"] | 0.5 | 1659454759355 | 1659651288366 | 0.055252175802007496 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | l4VN9UF6RAFLPyv6TsBa | {"NO": 71.9630157743433, "YES": 138.96026858236854} | 0.27 | what-percentage-of-markets-i-resolv | 267.4960161681951 | What percentage of markets I resolve in August will I lose M$ on overall? | 1662101940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8264727100386784 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658452958589 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counting the creation cost, liquidity injection, rewards for unique bettors, and trading gains/losses (but not counting tips), what percentage of my markets that I resolve in August will I have a net M$ loss on?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.517758498850115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662342796815 | 100 | jack | 1662313038332 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529552951}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116410205}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1661717146533 | 1662313491804 | 0.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | YSzPx6wSQu3gEGkoCMJp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-a7d6300ca123 | 0 | How many markets will be created next week? (7/21-7/27, rewards per unique bettor were just raised from M$5 to M$10) | 1658453564991 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1658453541160 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created between 7/21 and 7/27 (inclusive) according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658453564991 | 100 | jack | 1658453695928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1658453693866 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8127879513821102 | IMb4YJTs98MfHP7VZimR | {"NO": 5406.433271362348, "YES": 730.1138545690987} | 1 | will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-duri | 57544.13523029242 | Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan during summer recess? | 1659452366684 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7082012716008488 | True | basic | YES | public | 1658453567881 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan during the summer recess. resolves know if she does not. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 748.9781176046986, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659452366684 | 2238.4089601864034 | BTE | 1659463866109 | 0 | 146 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "AQEi7YA6OTPZ4KvF7t2r1zNehNi1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1659437717787}, {"name": "Pelosi Taiwan visit", "slug": "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "uB4QeEnBjdn9XyvGRCzR", "createdTime": 1659376428688... | ["global-macro", "china", "us-politics", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "world-default"] | 0.5 | 1659452293512 | 1659463864165 | 0.9693229321953694 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33333333333333337 | j6SiJg4kTw6jcW9eXUlT | {"NO": 107.13767818333852, "YES": 87.11953309354976} | 0.41333333333333333 | how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-8a86329e6a9f | 43.23109422631401 | How many markets will be created next week? (7/21-7/27, rewards per unique bettor were just raised from M$5 to M$10) | 1659077940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1245066561453667 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658453658140 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created between 7/21 and 7/27 (inclusive) according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1747921743288368, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659105819878 | 100 | jack | 1659051361447 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529552890}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.33333333333333326 | 1659051360088 | 1659048111999 | 0.41333333333333333 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3711166916539389 | V0yRsGNtYY3IssPK5n8Z | {"NO": 48.13565781442915, "YES": 681.7396807935709} | 0 | will-i-test-positive-for-covid-agai | 810.4313024621806 | Will I test positive for Covid again in 2022? | 1672551770566 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5484019291343896 | True | play | NO | public | 1658454608046 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if between August 1 and the end of the year, I test positive on any rapid or PCR test, unless I believe it was a false positive due to follow-up testing. NO if not. N/A if I think it's too ambiguous for some reason (e.g. if I feel sick... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.596982849328866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672551770566 | 140 | jack | 1672107220326 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Jack's personal Covid questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-covid-questions", "groupId": "THDsf0rXG3K6kRqM94dO", "createdTime": 1658529463540}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1658799099032}] | ["jacks-personal-covid-questions", "health"] | 0.5 | 1672107220159 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4707769684003667 | 4BiggkPLhKVln32YXdyV | {"NO": 46.54777907519757, "YES": 428.2808959661619} | 0 | will-there-be-a-us-rail-workers-str | 618.1942369664687 | Will there be a US rail workers Strike or Lockout resulting in work stoppage by union employees for over 12 hours by end of September 2022? | 1664600340000 | absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.800064246305479 | True | play | NO | public | 1658455121973 | Joe Brenton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if any of the 12 labor unions* representing rail workers enact a strike or there is a lockout (in either case work stoppage for >12 hours) before end of September 2022...and resolves to NO if a new agreement is entered... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8694547779856923, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664658394977 | 140 | JoeBrenton | 1664598649495 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Supply Chain", "slug": "supply-chain", "userId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "groupId": "QypbllpsjoA2LpuSwNB3", "createdTime": 1660816719785}] | ["supply-chain"] | 0.5 | 1664598649393 | 1663240021217 | 0.0881588508361138 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3749999999996384 | 7HSz3wKQMvg5jPG7GGNh | {"NO": 8365.940665992533, "YES": 0.06248973742913222} | 1 | how-many-shares-will-i-trade-provid | 8270 | How many shares will I trade providing liquidity in BTE's market on whether a judge will order Elon Musk to complete the Twitter deal? | 1660847358994 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6002188063312275 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658456434198 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In this market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu", "class... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.05933400746764, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660847358994 | 100 | jack | 1666921424732 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116410205}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.375 | 1660847301208 | 1666921406367 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | lmwnlvJG58OEfF8jzIdI | {"NO": 183.69133647178725, "YES": 54.43914880294793} | 0.85 | poll-how-much-do-you-enjoy-limit-or | 242.26398492018626 | [Poll] How much do you enjoy limit orders with the new UI? | 1659157140000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.954693183215325 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658469595452 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Write in with a comment of your subjective enjoyment of this feature, from 0% to 100%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves to the median percent given, using the most recent pe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.531291690865935, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660181642991 | 100 | JamesGrugett | 1660043413499 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Bugs & UX issues", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1658529433894}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1658529558144}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "g... | ["bugs", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "polls"] | 0.5 | 1659089905549 | 1660043407591 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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BKEO7WY08gNmMxB31Mlw | which-of-my-markets-that-resolve-in-a0e182970a0b | 100 | Which of my markets that resolve in July will have the largest bet amount? | 1659337140000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | 62207ec47fcf | public | 1658471198728 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counts all markets that resolve this month, even ones that have already resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659337907411 | 240 | SneakySly | 1659163777960 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ad67f9bfa40", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.64101615137754, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 103.92304845413264, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BKEO7WY08gNmMxB31Mlw", "createdTime": 1658471199139, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 1 | 1659163777799 | 1659024523334 | {"62207ec47fcf": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25209166117174236 | X2zxrvGJ9hKczsER3Lpa | {"NO": 190.4922195310087, "YES": 7687.06851289981} | 0 | will-manifold-reach-1000-weekly-act | 15968.827159342292 | Will Manifold reach 1000 weekly active users by September? | 1662015540000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6911386894255163 | True | play | NO | public | 1658472244927 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold reach 1000 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "weekly ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "active users by September? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will be using ", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 73.71710974701008, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663184930709 | 500 | SneakySly | 1663184927387 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658529552469}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1661950433736 | 1663184925113 | 0.008283504866377077 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000008 | lgoE5XLb8CmScxFrqc4y | {"NO": 2.432423350832579, "YES": 4111.126460193258} | 0 | will-nasas-artemis-i-launch-before | 5522.386253952389 | Will NASA's Artemis I launch before (end of day) Sept 6th? | 1662526740000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.194692536056383 | True | play | NO | public | 1658493757087 | Matt P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves to YES if the SLS on Artemis 1 clears the launch tower during an intentional launch attempt before close date. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 18, 10:23pm: related marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.727149395313184, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662557179179 | 100 | MattP | 1662521310638 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 47 | [{"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1662007018578}, {"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1661397610995}, {"nam... | ["science-default", "space", "artemis-program", "artemis-1"] | 0.5 | 1662521310394 | 1662497284981 | 0.0005913184713517217 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.549200412758005 | 5EwP8yy82jKdVcc9vE36 | {"NO": 17.876214206677105, "YES": 48507.217014586044} | 0 | will-ian-nepomniachtchi-be-the-2023 | 113980.98319855263 | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be the 2023 World Chess Champion? | 1682893100163 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0191305560570116 | True | basic | NO | public | 1658632560867 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Nepo wins, NO if Ding Liren wins.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Resolves N/A if for whatever reason the championship is not between Nepomniachtchi and Ding)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.139954417739283, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682893100163 | 1380 | AndrewG | 1682893093595 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 3 | 191 | 0 | 71 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658632559442}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969410}] | ["sports-default", "chess"] | 0.5 | 1682893093386 | 1682863555029 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999856 | Fg4avLlZ68BbfdJSwHfH | {"NO": 1132.342853012863, "YES": 8.83124750899671} | 1 | will-manifold-do-something-to-incen-5786c1ff0b95 | 1538.2434060457376 | Will Manifold do something to incentivize participating in long term markets by September? | 1661196233063 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.19226103548377 | True | play | YES | public | 1658646764038 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if at resolution nothing has been done to incentivize participating in long term markets. Resolves YES when manifold implements a feature targeted at incentivizing participation in long term markets. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.44712271021843, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661196233063 | 100 | SneakySly | 1661183853383 | 0 | 28 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658646766235}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1661172195903 | 1661183848665 | 0.9922612618837404 |
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