p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
W76O7HArbbS8UPwfufxV
who-will-be-at-the-top-of-the-weekl-f6433fa542d4
142.53849578087326
Who will be at the top of the weekly "Top creators" leaderboard this week?
1659250740000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.826913405034048
True
play
8c5b3a2edc56
public
1658646964858
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be at the top of the weekly \"Top creators\" leaderboard when this market resolves?", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 8.16, "platformFee": 2.04, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659254742845
520
SneakySly
1659229159977
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "02645f1a610b", "prob": 0.22363375991754433, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.659598616954892, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.47742497578837, "textFts": "", "contractId": "W76O7HArbbS8UPwfufxV", "createdTime": 1658646965089, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658646966921}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1659229159818
{"8c5b3a2edc56": 100}
True
gfAYHidaHGf0stabsw62
who-will-be-at-the-top-of-the-weekl-0f309f23fd6e
1403.8489770117283
Who will be at the top of the weekly "Top traders" leaderboard this week?
1659250740000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.650344081410742
True
play
3d83314cfc13
public
1658647000208
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be at the top of the weekly \"Top traders\" leaderboard this week?", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.599437505182702, "platformFee": 1.8998593762956755, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659254768612
600
SneakySly
1659236719714
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2abaa6de1535", "prob": 0.005144940498579658, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03124364618930509, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.0414497499598605, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gfAYHidaHGf0stabsw62", "createdTime": 1658647000421, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
1
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658647002270}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1659236718177
1659212228820
{"3d83314cfc13": 100}
True
0.5000000000000001
xiQYrKv6lbCbOjLRBylP
{"NO": 7.966039345399565, "YES": 1255.3289742128406}
0
will-elisabeth-ii-be-queen-of-the-u
10378.189428628122
Will Elizabeth II be Queen of the United Kingdom on January 1, 2023?
1662807914646
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
3.826964245390222
True
play
NO
public
1658666539122
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, Eisabeth II will still be ruling Queen of the United Kingdom on January 1, 2023, 12 PM ET.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise... \"No\"", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 22.05508983868928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662807914646
100
itsTomekK
1662865078706
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
0
57
0
47
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662767662614}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1661779633532}, {"n...
["politics-default", "leaders", "uk-politics", "please-resolve", "free-money"]
0.5
1662780060606
1662865074267
0.006305763309365203
rrJJtnEZ7uRx8w9XwY0T
who-will-win-the-2022-tour-de-franc-c75e2194c81d
1589.6356740320145
Who will win the 2022 Tour de France Femmes?
1659326340000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.653907268115116
True
play
a72ccd5f4292
public
1658670186603
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.5813569991713345, "platformFee": 1.6453392497928336, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659363320055
579.9999999999999
Duncn
1659277221420
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "aca01d684055", "prob": 0.006261374840762871, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0351732861752305, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.582328791203206, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rrJJtnEZ7uRx8w9XwY0T", "createdTime": 1658670186803, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658670186992}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1658680241024}]
["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing"]
1659277221249
1658680275026
{"a72ccd5f4292": 100}
True
0.23119540659207796
54aRwPLHmJmJAMUkZBxu
{"NO": 499.9274776452963, "YES": 377.83096134476335}
0.28464066479481853
when-will-alzheimers-be-cured
188.26710625207613
When will Alzheimers be cured
1894337940000
TMRLEk0jmmgHFm8b7yyNINhiRuH2
cpmm-1
0
10.52144041786567
False
play
public
1658670583672
Jonathan Hales
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will there be a cure for Alzheimer's effective for every stage of the disease. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It does not have to be widely available, just needs to exist.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.045001935327172, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
480
JonathanHales
1706184960404
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqFVMPgX5xjF3zFmyVeYXLlMFCqqdWTDy3bJMgeSA=s96-c
9
0
72
12
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "TMRLEk0jmmgHFm8b7yyNINhiRuH2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658670583882}]
["technology-default"]
0.10256410256410256
1706184960244
1703480794228
0.49999999999999806
yV438I882WGgiSc7bVGg
{"NO": 1092.5001845018671, "YES": 9.153316531987135}
1
will-liz-truss-be-the-prime-ministe
1133.8444549059677
Will Liz Truss be the Prime Minister of the UK on September 6th?
1662523140000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
0
5.1324409462476135
True
play
YES
public
1658675553654
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.201061059836969, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662768049810
100
Duncn
1662502366902
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
18
0
1
19
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658675554013}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1662502365097
1662465091972
0.9916912926583565
0.18713822544576758
km8UKjH3jfg9N85mab1W
{"NO": 164.27523028974613, "YES": 1348.6312375140326}
0
will-the-united-states-federal-gove-6f93610686e0
4641.374011617571
Will the United States federal government decriminalize marijuana in 2022?
1672549140000
U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1
cpmm-1
0
2.628620337337679
True
play
NO
public
1658681578996
Evelyn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 22.14774277335909, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672556837295
280
athenaciara
1672546626088
0
https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c
48
0
1
43
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658681579293}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1669388945183}]
["politics-default", "us-politics"]
0.5
1672546625531
1658732049677
0.03
0.6169751063320446
GpY5tnc7KLrbSrko36Tw
{"NO": 253.84421459434833, "YES": 111.55913915496775}
1
will-a-particular-repository-to-blo
152.38466704854156
Will a particular repository to block Spotify ads work in a year?
1690257540000
mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3
cpmm-1
0
2.2091080825168055
True
play
YES
public
1658681882756
Nuño Sempere
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The repository in question: <", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/abba23/spotify-adblock", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/abba23/spotify-adblock", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.7320182746894655, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1690280125721
160
NuñoSempere
1690223087127
0
https://firebasestorage.…fd7-e5444e90058e
6
0
1
3
[]
[]
0.5
1690223086984
0.79
0.8490996323613286
ojhFkfZHmhtt0GCXOE1T
{"NO": 1476.2657441162364, "YES": 222.491465660951}
1
will-jared-polis-be-reelected-as-co
4573.628903594167
Will Jared Polis be re-elected as Colorado governor?
1667972397324
FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1
cpmm-1
0
2.3108356492234448
True
play
YES
public
1658682075219
Scott Lawrence
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jared Polis is the incumbent; the main opponent is Heidi Ganahl. See here for more info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.112028960276854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667972397324
340
ScottLawrence
1667972382368
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575
22
0
21
[{"name": "Colorado ", "slug": "colorado", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "4tauc9etIhLT7H6qoTAR", "createdTime": 1658682075643}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658683329742}, {"name": "US...
["colorado", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1667969484006
1667972377511
0.9739143756420748
0.22325125351893782
1HfPINUExlhT5YonPUVx
{"NO": 77.77421100158145, "YES": 616.6447898221054}
0
will-dan-cox-be-elected-maryland-go
712.5403750608074
Will Dan Cox be elected Maryland Governor?
1668022971059
FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1
cpmm-1
0
3.1053195713821298
True
play
NO
public
1658682401642
Scott Lawrence
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current governor, Larry Hogan (R), is unable to run in the Nov 8th election due to term limits. Dan Cox (R) and Wes Moore (D) are the two main candidates.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.166342137046405, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668022971059
160
ScottLawrence
1667938100246
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575
11
0
10
[{"name": "Maryland", "slug": "maryland", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "0n1xci3KQqZhYAXs546g", "createdTime": 1658682402096}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658683343165}, {"name": "US ...
["maryland", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667938100073
1666229801367
0.03498236310426661
0.31081002595088286
dIF31u2efxX50nwz4z2N
{"NO": 83.94944396821052, "YES": 443.1358439854914}
0
will-samesex-partnerships-be-legall
373.06300174084333
Will same-sex partnerships be legally recognized in any part of Japan in 2022?
1672549140000
U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1
cpmm-1
0
2.7552463313146123
True
play
NO
public
1658682997682
Evelyn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, same-sex marriages and civil unions do not have legal recognition in Japan. However, 210 municipalities and 8 prefectures issue symbolic partnership certificates, which can be used to \"prove\" that two people are a couple but are not le...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.9910641089634664, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672556903337
160
athenaciara
1669943778407
0
https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c
0
9
0
1
9
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658682998011}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1669943778182
0.08
0.4999999999999996
eiAAkxn0VeTAwLIUtKzc
{"NO": 28.52966785920691, "YES": 350.5123175408057}
0
will-eharding-get-a-gym-coach-to-ad
1216.3618740828808
Will Eharding get a gym coach to admit that he's been shown something he thought was impossible?
1660656328790
MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2
cpmm-1
0
3.3499040872746035
True
play
NO
public
1658683979919
Gurkenglas
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eharding claims superpowers. I suggested a test: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://discordapp.com/channels/915138780216823849/946575585923194880/1000813669678075904", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discord...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 21.89378571872642, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660656328790
100
Gurkenglas
1660656320009
0
https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45
12
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658683980697}]
["sports-default"]
0.5
1660656147751
1660656314562
0.18814710035357515
0.5000000000000001
ZCfOYOIDqWBUOGFaCbiI
{"NO": 152.4030871035261, "YES": 65.61546875495434}
0.6990372287506278
will-i-complete-unit-2-of-the-duoli
90
Will I complete Unit 2 of the Duolingo Japanese course in 2022?
1661876154311
U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1
cpmm-1
0
2.860711275114607
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658684033496
Evelyn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if I reach at least Level 5 in every skill in Unit 2 by December 31, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 24, 1:35pm: Creator betting policy: I will bet YES as an incentive to comp...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661876154311
100
athenaciara
1661876197099
0
https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c
4
0
4
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1660882042887}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1660882047180...
["personal-goals", "technology-default"]
0.5
1660888930196
1661876193621
0.6990372287506278
0.30169189359565873
wotsIyHNnthnTCSTnENv
{"NO": 277.74143191087364, "YES": 18867.074255110856}
0
nvidia-gtx-1060-will-remain-the-mos
49459.57359037994
NVidia GTX 1060 will remain the most used video card this year.
1673164740000
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
1.0268859549034604
True
basic
NO
public
1658684853107
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Valve publishes a survey on the hardware that is used to play games on Steam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The most popular GPU on Steam is currently the Nvidia GeForce GTX 1060.", "type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.451004421417479, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673597287505
1120
BramStolk
1673178385771
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
58
0
2
43
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658684853415}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1673154518107
1673178380241
0.01
0.3906260810668416
gITxlBlp7h1OjgSICx90
{"NO": 977.5509886803243, "YES": 1028.401484364756}
0.37862423525226013
will-titanium-dioxide-be-illegal-to
115.61294388103869
Will titanium dioxide be illegal to use as a food additive in the US by 2025?
1735793940000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
0
9.674191005001308
False
basic
public
1658689014474
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.6900937542918748, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Duncn
1702056133798
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
1
13
0
9
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658689014783}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736883595}]
["science-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1702056133677
1697670590866
0.25224046488390256
GWmGRQbnFXzdraLszlOv
{"NO": 135.55609199978073, "YES": 3394.69722950815}
0
in-case-of-not-winning-a-second-ter
5415.929204990707
In case of not winning a second term, will President Bolsonaro attend his successor inauguration and handle him the presidential sash?
1672628340000
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
0
2.229447690135025
True
play
NO
public
1658689164668
MP
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Although it's just a presidential cerimony and just a symbol, Brazil has a tradition of the outgoing president waiting with the president Sash at the Planalto Palace and giving it to the next one at the inauguration day. It's a important symbol of ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 21.270514176595277, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672629540761
360.0468474111957
MP
1710208084524
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
26
0
1
25
[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li"}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId":...
["politics-default", "world-default", "global-macro", "brazil-3292d24d179f"]
0.5
1672619629351
1672608984008
0.01
0.40000000000000013
1ueRYl310UuuM7uxzSKo
{"NO": 101.07748652673155, "YES": 98.40526816831157}
0.4
how-many-executive-orders-will-bide
59.773882748113536
How many executive orders will Biden sign in August?
1662015540000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
2.8882029851908317
True
play
MKT
public
1658698331573
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions", "class"...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4758255957288786, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662051307134
100
SneakySly
1661908985384
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
6
0
1
6
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658698332492}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 16607658569...
["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]
0.4
1661908984013
0.4
0.6055459482834458
aEsDI4Z6fR7NNnL2O7ic
{"NO": 1436.5842944661058, "YES": 774.8603237095622}
0.7399999999999998
will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice
1944.8504665883365
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
1925020740000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
3.803096262820466
False
basic
public
1658701079142
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: \"The Winds of Winter\") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.00452260019281292, "month": 0.20868309550993203}
0
{"creatorFee": 31.144115235601127, "platformFee": 0.1522607407440026, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
jack
1719853332726
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
0
44
1
6
[{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7"}]
["books", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"]
0.5
1719851901043
1719853331558
0.23086401742427357
puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx
{"NO": 879.7007454834836, "YES": 1394.7145717894678}
0.15918532361800047
will-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ic
6488.395338000217
Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?
2556172740000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
9.624577728513337
False
basic
public
1658701737682
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published before George R. R. Martin dies. The book must be described as the final, concluding book of the series in official announcements prior to its publication. (If it is announced th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.049710488853809076}
0
{"creatorFee": 19.723742787316827, "platformFee": 1.4667199098729367, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
jack
1719253633301
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
1
67
0
35
[{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1669223912510}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7", "createdTime": 1694351170341}]
["books", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"]
0.5
1719253630168
1681184823046
0.4999999999999997
W29rNGTZkik6k81qXhNF
{"NO": 28.28377093552637, "YES": 353.5596446030937}
0
will-ferrari-win-the-2022-hungary-g
367.5186049286068
Will Ferrari win the 2022 Hungary Grand Prix F1 race?
1659281618500
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
3.522062360155666
True
play
NO
public
1658702317441
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 31, the Hungary Grand Prix Formula One race will be held.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Ferrari win this race? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.664992009132037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659281618500
100
BramStolk
1659280372392
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
7
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658702320048}]
["sports-default"]
0.5
1659280372268
0.07407164765596355
0.5000000000000004
HHZqPw94UUHt7SAiZMpD
{"NO": 165.13663364031927, "YES": 60.555915302117555}
0.7316884603152657
what-will-be-the-male-ratio-of-monk-7689946e53ff
191.1890897432249
What will be the male ratio of Monkeypox cases from October 15th to October 22nd?
1665784740000
Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1
cpmm-1
0
2.8970943672425515
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658706780366
^,^ Épi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves in the same way as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/what-will-be-the-male-ratio-of-monk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/what-will-be-the-male-ra...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666949096960
100
epiphanie_gedeon
1666704549570
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c
6
0
3
7
[{"name": "Monkeypox", "slug": "monkeypox", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "lqeZvDbcu2moTNTzEHSJ", "createdTime": 1658706780611}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660131946148}]
["monkeypox", "medicine"]
0.5
1663595576047
1666704543974
0.7375364485018994
4y7VtzxiJIqdNycznFQi
{"NO": 1493.7130159657536, "YES": 53.85110287249247}
1
if-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-the
5004.039525707159
If Twitter and Elon Musk settle their lawsuit over the deal to buy Twitter, will Musk buy Twitter?
1666919906341
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
3.5965649615012696
True
play
YES
public
1658707477988
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk said he is seeking to terminate the deal, Twitter has sued to enforce the deal. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/technology/twitter-lawsuit-musk-acquisition.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link",...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.7270460415875983, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667787411332
160
jack
1710451902030
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
10
0
3
11
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1666917907701
1666996929171
False
0.9873329184323717
tMeHZt07SKXMz4kPZ7jT
what-is-joffmans-sexual-orientation
1254.5140015467625
what is joffmans sexual orientation
4097188800000
oMUmf0J2ivW4Zu78khEF8cyLN232
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658709128129
Brady Eldredge
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 3.3730726275808247, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
560
BradyEldredge
1717889311830
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucosfft5MiwWWFhFsB1GfW_ng3ZuFGL_R5_AJm1EhA=s96-c
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "9c7e3c340c3d", "prob": 0.1242273001817279, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.9668123628733056, "userId": "oMUmf0J2ivW4Zu78khEF8cyLN232", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.965076658866607, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tMeHZt07SKXMz4kPZ7jT", "createdTime": 1658709128327, "probChanges": {"day": -0.8620752405...
2
[{"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3"}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE"}]
["sex-and-love", "ancient-markets"]
1717889308662
1684031482532
True
True
0.47790325989152443
ff193zQHYu5dm392zGlq
{"NO": 147.27380672643534, "YES": 95.81999956438338}
0.5845250924762873
what-month-starting-jan-2023-will-t
51.74987867296892
What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?
1767247140000
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658718199684
Matt P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the month in which the next main book in Jim Butcher's Dresden Files series (titled Twelve Months) releases (i.e. is available for purchase by the public). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7461745264733328, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
125.82076972839619
MattP
1707750199512
0
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
3
0
2
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1658718198920}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658756253050}, {"name": "Ancient Mar...
["culture-default", "books", "ancient-markets"]
0.4857142857142857
1707750199322
Yt3rWHO8OVuZkfVRK7jF
where-will-the-next-magnitude-7-ear
1172
Where will the next magnitude ≥7 earthquake be?
1658889485426
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.686835825351853
True
play
MKT
public
1658722453657
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the Wikipedia article [List of Earthquakes in [year]](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.72, "platformFee": 1.68, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658889485426
1000
LivInTheLookingGlass
1658896826966
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "577db97544a5", "prob": 0.022144274376417233, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.19676922710858194, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.689014238351605, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Yt3rWHO8OVuZkfVRK7jF", "createdTime": 1658722453898, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658722453234}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591492238}]
["science-default", "olivia"]
1658888938955
1658896824268
{"cb3ac7362c05": 90, "f8229ed315d1": 10}
True
0.4613641621825235
VhdtAqozpT0NBuddeJKr
{"NO": 51.54611920100983, "YES": 244.21296556702475}
0.21
2022-election-us-satisfaction
203.83340904825124
[2022 Election] U.S. Satisfaction
1667980740000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
2.653122011381516
True
play
MKT
public
1658729429281
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At market close I will check", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.gallup.com/394472/indicator-united-states-satisfaction.aspx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gallup.com/394472/i...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.4085708938493413, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667981149220
120
SneakySly
1667977196564
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
9
0
9
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658729430446}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1667977196420
1662680730916
0.21
0.46653461229135007
EX7amfRy4yFBO6y4o8zm
{"NO": 252.84020807772276, "YES": 9291.412410273262}
0
will-contrapoints-release-another-v
16675.069059071677
Will ContraPoints release another video this year?
1672559940000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
0.734392667095884
True
basic
NO
public
1658729770500
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the popular YouTuber release another video this year? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/c/ContraPoints/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "htt...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.93113846496978, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672607108452
1460
SneakySly
1672607116706
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
112
0
1
96
[{"name": "Contrapoints", "slug": "contrapoints", "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "groupId": "xZWkQkPg967hsx9XyS2h", "createdTime": 1669792021193}]
["contrapoints"]
0.5
1672559411608
1672607102576
0.02
0.5372934848406199
5DbLdwyfVLPgijN39JsY
{"NO": 40.08071177551998, "YES": 1421.4356228583918}
0
will-elon-musk-still-be-the-richest
5402.009507774732
Will Elon Musk still be the richest man in the world all year long?
1670437431509
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
2.4758719748346643
True
play
NO
public
1658730208847
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.2757634042598536, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670437431509
380
SneakySly
1710451912279
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
1
23
0
22
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1670432204409
1672221809816
0.031704584472620555
VcfNucCAhU4UVReDfnGL
what-will-be-top-of-the-steam-top-s
147.6239434749072
What will be top of the Steam Top Sellers list at the end of this month?
1659337140000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.854492836986475
True
play
52a65fe99144
public
1658730425669
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers", "class": "no-underline !text-...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 6.52783312490882, "platformFee": 1.631958281227205, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659338002576
460
SneakySly
1659337982134
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c341f337e272", "prob": 0.29416497111032147, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.58660394611716, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 63.79330718254784, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VcfNucCAhU4UVReDfnGL", "createdTime": 1658730425853, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658730426824}]
["gaming"]
1659298699619
1659337982929
{"52a65fe99144": 100}
True
6uu0FlJR8HLue2nUNJZQ
what-is-the-best-food-place-i-will
425
What is the best food place I will eat at during my visit to San Francisco this week?
1659163059492
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.706009554686191
True
play
05030f609066
public
1658730908273
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be my best food experience this week in SF? (Food truck, restaurant, Austin's tacos, whatever)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will be with the Manifold folks for at least some of my meals. I m...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4.5600000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1400000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659163059492
359.99999999999994
SneakySly
1659163117358
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "0516083a0cf2", "prob": 0.036281179138321996, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6838451831280343, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.164637676838417, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6uu0FlJR8HLue2nUNJZQ", "createdTime": 1658730908461, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
1659163047790
1659163116091
{"05030f609066": 100}
True
0.10092613279648442
wu1LJleeS1ZdCmD0Q6dr
{"NO": 130, "YES": 50.38025644675573}
0.2246029198905019
when-will-jeff-cavalieres-sarms-use
10
When will Jeff Cavaliere's SARMS use be revealed?
2366859540000
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658762999386
Enopoletus Harding
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's steroids or tren, mkt rslvs no, if something in the direction of SARMs yes. It is physically impossible to have Jeff's form with his nuked testosterone (yes, he has two children, but I guarantee they took a long time trying). His form is so...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
EnopoletusHarding
1701399395914
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
1
0
67
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658763001994}]
["sports-default"]
0.07407407407407407
1701399352861
1701399395101
0.5000000000000002
G2lVoAAw667Y4ouUc1ps
{"NO": 309.1173496831804, "YES": 32.350173842552586}
1
will-lightcone-purchase-the-rose-ga
903.1685958285613
Will Lightcone purchase the Rose Garden Inn?
1661410740000
YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2
cpmm-1
0
3.3782258072652995
True
play
YES
public
1658766224333
Rachel Shu
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lightcone is considering purchasing the Rose Garden Inn in Berkeley, which is currently rented out for running rationalist events. People have enjoyed it at parties and retreats, polled Net Promoter Score is +40. I'm not sure what the ask price is....
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 14.171790645283219, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669017777854
100
noumena
1668977957447
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c
26
0
1
29
[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1660445972182}]
["sf-bay-rationalists"]
0.5
1661410715634
1668977952596
0.9052613451829054
0.33333333333333315
v70NTrYIui9qdHq09ABH
{"NO": 291.78198533007185, "YES": 11.745812126800894}
0.8888888888888888
friday-coworking-happy-hour-jul-29
404.74432565578473
Friday Coworking & Happy Hour (Jul 29): How many people will attend?
1659164340000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
4.2631908747894895
True
play
MKT
public
1658766509048
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Cowork and meet other EAs this Friday!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": The Manifold team has booked ", "type": "text"}, {"text": ...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.105158258859827, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659172705923
100
Austin
1659143262464
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
13
0
1
[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1658766509358}]
["sf-events"]
0.33333333333333326
1659143261229
1659130362227
0.8888888888888888
0.8122359259978029
xWZEXEaho5TKluf6Qhms
{"NO": 1181.0524516082837, "YES": 933.834728878686}
0.8454650247398997
will-winner-of-the-2024-presidentia
466.4442036651273
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election self-report as being vaccinated for COVID-19
1734328740000
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
cpmm-1
0
9.75740028121737
False
basic
public
1658766956101
Scott Owens
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Purely based on weather or not candidate self-reports on getting at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, candidate does not have to provide proof of vaccination. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.839081188980677, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScottOwens
1717427089077
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
16
0
14
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046818}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdT...
["politics-default", "medicine", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets"]
0.5
1717427085805
0.8566564999803958
XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT
{"NO": 678.0738591831841, "YES": 1015.3571249647324}
0.7996412557144998
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-a7458cd40409
1110.0124769110178
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960
1734328740000
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
cpmm-1
0
9.892556042209169
False
basic
public
1658767435267
Scott Owens
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves to yes if the winner of the next presidential election was born pre 1960", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.10459338041462152, "month": -0.10211969685084887}
0
{"creatorFee": 20.275147477670114, "platformFee": 0.3777441862053829, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScottOwens
1720024562851
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
31
1
21
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics"]
0.5
1720024559774
1658786884449
False
0.5000000000000007
mtqKXrF0A3ovvhhvwkRO
{"NO": 264.2268335422918, "YES": 37.846269684034255}
1
will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and
241
Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings 6/7 days this week (410cal/40min) AND 6/7 days next week (420cal/45min)
1659916632460
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.227151094116652
True
play
YES
public
1658769129389
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Considerations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week starts today, Monday. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.993407588389138, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659916632460
100
Charlie
1659791258274
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
3
0
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658769129917}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm",...
["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"]
0.5
1659791256931
0.8747115539920212
0.3084295713374318
yqb4IcjR7gvnr6wXamBA
{"NO": 60.437632025170956, "YES": 512.1304948076292}
0
will-works-in-progress-have-a-way-t
388.5831052115676
Will Works In Progress have a way to make suggestions to the text of their articles before 2023?
1672531140000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
3.423283211883783
True
play
NO
public
1658771002880
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "eg. an edit button, live collaborative editing, forking and changes, comments on the text itself.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.2390213554995515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672536111577
140
NathanpmYoung
1672486111026
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
7
0
1
7
0.5
1672486109816
0.05
0.5000000000000001
OFVrY11KVuOgPPo6oZgB
{"NO": 60.42907848400914, "YES": 165.48324500176224}
0
will-inga-fix-her-sleep-schedule-by
87
will Inga fix her sleep schedule by August?
1659423540000
GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2
cpmm-1
0
2.8981266513702195
True
play
NO
public
1658773005987
Inga Wei
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been going to sleep at like 5 AM recently. Let's see if I can get that to before 1 AM by next week.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.2538368293497566, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659463784339
100
IngaWei
1659420037275
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c
7
0
1
[{"name": "Inga's group", "slug": "ingas-group", "userId": "GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2", "groupId": "ZV0ieX8lKXKIbLhY0rRN", "createdTime": 1658773006225}]
["ingas-group"]
0.5
1659420036054
1658773678053
0.2674890751934352
0.6290294357300842
JurEONJ0uwEHYnRoWlZW
{"NO": 289.9137525671132, "YES": 80.00021745023412}
1
end-of-2022-will-the-price-for-copp
226.21910852408192
End of 2022, will the price for copper will be at $3 or above?
1672472702264
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
2.6570751561631405
True
play
YES
public
1658775194908
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timed with the pandemic, the spot price of copper had a huge upswing and downswing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the spot price for copper (in usd per lb) be higher than $3,-?", "type"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.844980395281116, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672472702264
140
BramStolk
1670492157373
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
11
0
12
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658775195242}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1670492157208
0.86
0.49999999999999967
bg6vIsXEP0fGW1SU89Sn
{"NO": 573.1191834526771, "YES": 17.44837773490042}
1
poll-should-manifold-allow-images-t
643.850292759445
Poll: should Manifold allow images to be embedded in comments?
1659416340000
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
cpmm-1
0
4.135161866814677
True
play
YES
public
1658778507928
Matt P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote in comments, either YES or NO as the first word of your comment. Question resolves to the answer with the majority, or PROB 50% if it is tied. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 13.889989689826498, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659444087378
100
MattP
1659444056142
0
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
11
0
1
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658778507182}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
0.5
1659413703552
1659444049849
0.9704548998596988
0.592752051889635
jkCSXmfwrskPpkfidpZr
{"NO": 105.08515287457406, "YES": 992.351449576584}
0
will-midnight-the-cat-eat-cat-food
1638.6260114447734
Will Midnight the Cat eat cat food out of a container held by a human by August 7th?
1659941940000
tMHyhPxiQyWe2M46byaEz1FOXHu2
cpmm-1
0
1.3638052353206735
True
play
NO
public
1658779552948
James Medlock
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Midnight, the stray cat that lives on my back porch, eats food out of a wet food container that I'm holding by 8/7/22. Each day I will present her with her food and wait progressively longer until giving in and puttin...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 21.01503754628683, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660151775018
400
JamesMedlock
1660160406214
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9DJA2qdCfztMb3SeXkkUOQdp7fIF_53hwwuPo=s96-c
21
0
1
[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104462042}]
["internet"]
0.5
1659917575064
1660160403543
0.13354723617516986
0.5
EfTQadrTa62FFY5tBCvc
{"NO": 22.032379504053694, "YES": 453.8774397091389}
0
will-the-atlas-fellows-kitchen-staf
520.5126172228948
Will the Atlas Fellows Kitchen Staff put out more smoothies in the next 15 minutes?
1658784053652
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
0
3.8217789552501005
True
play
NO
public
1658783119103
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 16.3827277512299, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658784053652
100
JamesGrugett
1658784051616
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
16
0
0.5
1658784051482
0.5
0.500000000000001
8W3VLZgLOE5h31IOX1uV
{"NO": 428.96475522679447, "YES": 23.311938517450002}
1
will-this-market-be-traded-by-25-in
1813.8923287164928
Will this market be traded by >25 individual traders before 2023?
1659656184220
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
0
2.987498535583076
True
play
YES
public
1658783893920
Tim P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "#fun #silly #self_referential", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 12.844784606477514, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659656184220
100
TimP
1659599690879
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
27
0
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1658963761465}]
["predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1659599690798
1659109291393
0.9484564673796071
0.5000000000000004
uuRDHUCEu087jyikAh5W
{"NO": 207.83344932948935, "YES": 48.115450290903304}
0
will-john-carmack-work-for-oculus-m
249.86608533571433
Will John Carmack work for Oculus / Meta on Jan 1 2023?
1661017580370
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
3.0344211100217433
True
play
NO
public
1658784738642
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will John Carmack work for Oculus / Meta at the start of the new year?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arbiter: social media announcements on employment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.925216367634836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661017580370
100
BramStolk
1661081087066
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
5
0
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658784739059}, {"name": "John Carmack", "slug": "john-carmack", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "jBJEzmSbLUSulAL2JAQY", "createdTime": 1682251533544}]
["technology-default", "john-carmack"]
0.5
1660888917441
1661081085117
0.812011497754962
0.5
87Ty31cLRmNucxc8iyqn
{"NO": 116.47478539191751, "YES": 85.85549195348788}
1
will-there-be-1500-or-more-wildfire
27
Will there be 1500 or more wildfires in British Columbia in this fiscal year.
1663641401410
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
2.7842063015013823
True
play
YES
public
1658785600713
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UPDATE: The Province records these stats per fiscal year, not per calendar year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In fiscal year 2020, there were 670 wildfires in BC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.217314234372906, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663641401410
100
BramStolk
1710208075503
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
4
0
5
[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6"}, {"name": "British Columbia", "slug": "british-columbia", "groupId": "VkDolKwtbaFdJKZNzlsB"}]
["world-default", "canada", "british-columbia"]
0.5
1663641132721
1663641361849
0.5756666126299979
0.49999999999999617
zGCr8G9CXuxk1ZpsgIsJ
{"NO": 973.0000000000041, "YES": 10.27749229188072}
1
will-the-seattle-mariners-make-the
1816.6926261533538
Will the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs before the Seattle Kraken?
1664601690529
KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2
cpmm-1
0
3.7906276901275833
True
play
YES
public
1658787612512
LukeW
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Seattle Mariners make the MLB playoffs before the Seattle Kraken make the NHL playoffs. Resolves to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664601690529
100
LukeW
1664561521184
0
https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8
7
0
8
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658787611910}, {"name": "Seattle", "slug": "seattle", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "6PG7rSSarK58uc0JM6oW", "createdTime": 1663335895846}]
["sports-default", "seattle"]
0.5
1664561521013
0.9895477193646268
0.5
XeGMi5VolWuxSqKc3OXm
{"NO": 60.12529709724285, "YES": 166.31934448201793}
0.265518745234683
will-aaron-in-the-atlas-fellowship
120
Will Aaron in the Atlas Fellowship go to bed before 3am on the morning of 26/07/2022?
1658829627025
OhHSdtitT5YQ9Mt8DYNfXjoWEs32
cpmm-1
0
2.900624751037442
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658788733320
Space Clottey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves Yes if Aaron goes to bed without coming back out before 3am, and No if he is still awake after 3am. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658829627025
100
SpaceClottey
1658829758264
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi2drPDXrAmx2ij1sNbu9QB-6FO47IRk9RDya_Zxg=s96-c
5
0
0.5
1658829465616
1658829755613
0.41951219698111847
0.2734064697920309
126COYcntSUOzvuIdNMX
{"NO": 164.85623539092703, "YES": 1586.0980018043513}
0
will-new-york-congresswoman-alexand
2101.0411525475624
Will New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be a candidate for the next Democratic National Convention?
1710397000526
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
1.8182433224258057
True
play
NO
public
1658790687401
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last time around, AOC was too young to be president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But will she be a candidate at the next Democratic National Convention?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 11.229252853044805, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1710397000526
340
BramStolk
1710397001371
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
32
0
3
27
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658790719543}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "c...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.5
1707297915244
1658844227199
0.04
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
0.5
Qa50pFCFv8VIod79NEoG
{"NO": 2.4654465344474374, "YES": 4056.060377006239}
0
will-predictor-resolve-their-curren
4634.062803392623
Will @Predictor resolve their currently closed up arrow vs down arrow market by 8/15?
1660198499777
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.342015722276611
True
play
NO
public
1658805771136
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-up-arrow-on-this-question-850f1c4e7fb0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-up-arrow-on...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 13.89950694083636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660198499777
100
jack
1660198492507
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
9
0
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660116410204}]
["predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1660198404533
1660198487380
0.181192202682603
SOmpj6kiGHETkC72cmSN
which-interpretation-of-quantum-mec-b5900a8db891
12761.82755593974
Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?
2556161940000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1658806898679
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve when Wikipedia states that a specific interpretation is correct, and I deem it not to be vandalism", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 59.00080711454989, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
101
1360
LivInTheLookingGlass
1720176601462
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
2
61
8
ANYONE
[{"id": "19822b4bfe76", "prob": 0.0008592562603173873, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004692108006108642, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.455969888655396, "textFts": "", "contractId": "SOmpj6kiGHETkC72cmSN", "createdTime": 1658806898997, "probChanges": {"day": -0.002445...
29
[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1658806898244}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364817}, {"name": "Olivi...
["physics", "olivia"]
1720176598332
1720113328103
True
True
0.21353438072521833
6vYXXfMBdDtKAvm2rvNY
{"NO": 109.98743096925891, "YES": 744.9959173294262}
0
will-ftx-go-public-before-2024
1153.1419237370046
Will FTX go public before 2024?
1668867702871
wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2
cpmm-1
0
3.1886166041245523
True
play
NO
public
1658809544042
Ryan P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if FTX ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ftx.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ftx.com", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 15.028155714231907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668867702871
200
REP
1668867748661
0
https://firebasestorage.…839-b9d5e577a3c1
22
0
22
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658809545742}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1668127003730
1668867746070
0.038539722171261524
0.4
27sLNAHp9bGefPVKPlnx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.37
how-many-years-will-experts-estimat
0
How many years will experts estimate until HLMI?
1659250800000
qSYuC7AJ3KSrYNZxpbyJUBgFl1g1
cpmm-1
0
2.888113252333106
True
play
MKT
public
1658811656297
Zach Stein-Perlman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI Impacts is currently surveying AI researchers to determine when they believe HLMI (\"when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers\") will arrive (assuming \"human scientific activity continues withou...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659817179401
100
ZachSteinPerlman
1658930652955
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucooTEAErYIh9gX7f9xnZuRw961SIEIoBtrQu4CDzw=s96-c
0
0
1
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "qSYuC7AJ3KSrYNZxpbyJUBgFl1g1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658811656558}]
["technology-default"]
0.4
1658930647729
0.37
0.15689648851274643
fz1K2xeIUsUtmR8SIHcE
{"NO": 928.3737466625565, "YES": 1208.8034468655428}
0.12504975461521203
will-i-ever-give-you-up
372.16377664062736
Will I ever give you up?
253402415940000
k0mod5J32paw4ucMw8002tVo7wH3
cpmm-1
0
9.87801024472482
False
basic
public
1658812119128
d6e
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "¯\\_(ツ)_/¯", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.636916617502455, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
d6e
1683206906386
0
https://firebasestorage.…777-39eccbf03181
22
0
20
[]
[]
0.5
1683206906271
1658869396717
0.5
1sMldKDbzcxtE2p3SduJ
{"NO": 147.26927869072213, "YES": 67.9028246006476}
1
will-i-submit-a-piece-to-the-critic
275
Will I submit a piece to the Criticism and Red Teaming Contest?
1662091140000
U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1
cpmm-1
0
2.8470459100034633
True
play
YES
public
1658816618608
Evelyn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.3792142318769027, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662096666881
100
athenaciara
1662141495647
0
https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c
7
0
1
7
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658816618990}]
["effective-altruism"]
0.5
1662029279018
1662141493105
0.6844255200280365
0.49999999999999994
aPDLoacMAbLUrXZqWuFk
{"NO": 101.79984292492404, "YES": 98.23197868168475}
0.508918241644212
market-inside-a-market-will-resolve
6
Market inside a market (will resolve n/a just thought this was cool)
1659427050687
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
cpmm-1
0
2.7727478239443193
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658817647567
David Chee
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/market-inside-a-market-will-resolve", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659427050687
100
SirSalty
1659415196323
0
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
4
0
0.5
1659415195005
1658865128193
0.508918241644212
0.5000000000000006
WbOYkwycmlsZsgS6Zsyz
{"NO": 473.1009417252304, "YES": 21.137138225795038}
1
will-the-russiaukraine-wheat-deal-b
376
Will the Russia-Ukraine wheat deal be in force on 1 September 2022?
1661954340000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
3.875289540746771
True
play
YES
public
1658823846056
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Referring to this: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/22/the-grain-export-deal-what-to-know", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/22/the-grain-export-d...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.899058274769611, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662009473685
100
Keepcalmandchill
1661944314373
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
9
0
1
9
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658823844663}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224478}]
["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1661944312983
False
0.9572328821205167
LSmO8qRMLJ3jdJ12U0mG
what-is-the-best-category-of-thing
325
What is the best category of thing to create a market on?
1661468340000
UH9Uv9kHAVOnKtDVm9Hw8se3xrm2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.726222450813275
True
play
MKT
public
1658829132485
Ben
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've got a theory that for new platforms like this, the best way to get useful information from a prediction market is to ask questions that it would take me a very long time to answer, but another person can answer trivially (and make a profit doi...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661940938568
320
bdf
1661455722920
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJygwcRmG7sUPMlOTBKiL1uQ8ssDpr5DPh8va9GP=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "a70ceb2da0c5", "prob": 0.05536332179930796, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8764147725648688, "userId": "UH9Uv9kHAVOnKtDVm9Hw8se3xrm2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.016327056888066, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LSmO8qRMLJ3jdJ12U0mG", "createdTime": 1658829132795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
3
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "UH9Uv9kHAVOnKtDVm9Hw8se3xrm2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658829130950}]
["science-default"]
1661455721702
{"1122b2bb9d90": 17.58241758241758, "30051f0c563b": 29.304029304029303, "87f5c14da4f8": 53.113553113553124}
True
0.6800000000000003
x4gulADIPcjTT6N9wV0s
{"NO": 100.96831756847361, "YES": 99.5475399127759}
0.68
how-many-pomodoros-will-i-do-over-t
57.16389028586504
How many pomodoros will I do over the next two work sessions (goal is 34)
1659401955494
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.18544413202776
True
play
MKT
public
1658842538597
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Considerations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"pomodoro\" is a 25 minute work session.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": ...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.4356464377527361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659401955494
100
Charlie
1659367243909
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
3
0
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1658842539012}, {"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1664...
["personal-goals", "charlies-hack-days"]
0.68
1659367243763
1658853328518
0.68
0.7905326296137882
QHW1P6dHa3bxvY88V3C0
{"NO": 1269.6533730619003, "YES": 912.9655238385773}
0.8399612847371221
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-20645f46f6a3
319.85396570063887
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 182 cm in height?
1734328740000
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
cpmm-1
0
9.710111263782185
False
basic
public
1658847083203
Scott Owens
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 26, 9:53am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 182 cm tall?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010498276474347201}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.81127787885181, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScottOwens
1718631873241
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
12
0
4
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046818}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1718631870154
1683545714693
0.6215240364160515
zJswumDJHZJ6qfc4uTDI
{"NO": 975.3616196033071, "YES": 99.57347226596721}
0.9414717349923735
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-799138703e51
1065.0747034426481
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height?
1734328740000
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658847258409
Scott Owens
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 26, 9:59am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be greater then 165 cm in height", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be eit...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 7.247454207723067, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
260
ScottOwens
1690352369072
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
9
0
6
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046818}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1690352368943
1661912035605
0.4735630955732675
kSMUyZEWlsKjA41gLy8t
{"NO": 997.804066002897, "YES": 1000.2353046199024}
0.47295642940515514
will-winner-of-the-2024-presidentia-6a49986bfd71
241.9612448272717
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a proponent of 2020 election fraud theories?
1734328740000
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
cpmm-1
0
9.596327874967173
False
basic
public
1658847402305
Scott Owens
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 26, 10:03am: Will resolve if at any point between the 2020 election and the 2024 election the winning candidate claimed that the 2020 election was \"stolen\". Backtracking on pervious claims will still resolve to yes ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.226187712919958, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScottOwens
1708141857349
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
15
0
10
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662799046817}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c...
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "scotts-presidential-markets", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]
0.5
1708141857199
1683242200974
False
0.5000000000000001
TsD0ThKYaUXRsBOfBVb8
{"NO": 88.90170687881424, "YES": 112.48377957052541}
1
will-george-russell-qualify-higher
50
Will George Russell qualify higher than Sir Lewis Hamilton for the Hungary Formula1 GP?
1659193290068
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
2.77950418478889
True
play
YES
public
1658848598769
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the upcoming Grand Prix of Hungary, the designated Mercedes drivers are Sir Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will George Russel outqualify Lewis Hamilton?"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.318166739806486, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659193290068
100
BramStolk
1659044082238
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
5
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658848599061}]
["sports-default"]
0.5
1659044081006
0.44145041654319156
LEpp0nFkaw2AnC0Sx9UY
which-country-will-win-group-d-of-t
3081.963675107054
Which country will win Group D of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1669826700000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.646979753450001
True
play
da0d8da8d4de
public
1658848671325
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_D", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_D", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:und...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669827756203
540
egroj
1669826609821
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "2a04d4a797dc", "prob": 0.004194546114871777, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.032667917931677115, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.755521086798274, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LEpp0nFkaw2AnC0Sx9UY", "createdTime": 1658848671551, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
10
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658848671740}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16588499531...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "india"]
1669826609703
False
{"da0d8da8d4de": 100}
True
9uAgz0FiSLvudV0rIbvB
httpsenwikipediaorgwiki2022fifaworl
1215.861981448079
Which country will win Group E of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1669923900000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.668458641394471
True
play
eb7ca9a69205
public
1658848932205
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_E", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_E", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:und...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669928413863
780.0000000000001
egroj
1669929989030
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
15
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "257d7f94f664", "prob": 0.012019291950780862, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.1414076216919926, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.623646615367765, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9uAgz0FiSLvudV0rIbvB", "createdTime": 1658848932427, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
15
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658848932595}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16588499416...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]
1669922503968
1669929987452
{"eb7ca9a69205": 100}
True
N2SNDuictJLfTfU84m8E
which-country-will-win-group-f-of-t
13506.130317866735
Which country will win Group F of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1669913794301
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.618979925201607
True
play
6e2bd87cb40b
public
1658849188696
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_F", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_F", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:und...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669913794301
720
egroj
1669913781438
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
13
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "8ee0770302ba", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0001200060004500375, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.199939998499925, "textFts": "", "contractId": "N2SNDuictJLfTfU84m8E", "createdTime": 1658849188923, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ...
13
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658849189102}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16588499300...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]
1669913781332
1669913328935
{"6e2bd87cb40b": 100}
True
dojnE0LSczrVyh9UkaHS
which-country-will-win-group-g-of-t
903.2643329482166
Which country will win Group G of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1670015100000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.666665797736814
True
play
3ff3573cfcc5
public
1658849549954
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_G", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_G", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670015237483
560
egroj
1670002745789
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "098ede53cb3f", "prob": 0.011204161917349388, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.14311890203353375, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.630607780005702, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dojnE0LSczrVyh9UkaHS", "createdTime": 1658849550181, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
7
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658849914720}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16588495503...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "brazil-switzerland-20221128", "brazil-cameroon-20221202", "india"]
1670002745657
False
{"3ff3573cfcc5": 100}
True
6sD2zW3RGgyYbivaiIF8
which-country-will-win-group-h-of-t
2605.942264035916
Which country will win Group H of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
1669999500000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.633850758587293
True
play
914717ad4dca
public
1658849796551
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_H", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_H", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:und...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670004511871
480
egroj
1669995026023
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "be94a35fe825", "prob": 0.0014304020753111647, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006496497469184759, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.535231720991022, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6sD2zW3RGgyYbivaiIF8", "createdTime": 1658849796748, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...
1
10
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1658849796955}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16588498997...
["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "india"]
1669995025921
1669218710488
False
{"914717ad4dca": 100}
True
0.13583421898868217
jVSqfR0HWVaqjhKbQ01V
{"NO": 172.02399524270686, "YES": 35794.74521240685}
0
will-brian-armstrong-be-replaced-as
53907.4935390185
Will Brian Armstrong be replaced as CEO of Coinbase within one year?
1690430340000
wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2
cpmm-1
0
1.4786970157844057
True
play
NO
public
1658851241251
Ryan P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if Brian Armstrong is replaced as Coinbase CEO by 07/26/2023", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 15.316004293493075, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1690441807846
440
REP
1690418896953
0
https://firebasestorage.…839-b9d5e577a3c1
37
0
1
25
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "jOdiXkGC6QPazkFUjacbA2OHswt1", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1670999700671}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 165885124...
["technology-default", "wall-street-bets", "crypto-speculation", "coinbase"]
0.5
1690418896570
1678161050754
0
0.5858197369577351
nAVVaeXZkyCMhVMdeYNT
{"NO": 508.1008688490509, "YES": 62.49232707029924}
1
how-much-will-rethink-priorities-ra
1313.790208799186
How much will Rethink Priorities raise by the end of 2022?
1672559940000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
2.6138592802607
True
play
MKT
public
1658857960514
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rethink Priorities just ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "released an excellent mid-year report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jcmrhndktgopqFugx/rethink-priorities-2022-mid-year...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.8606607413535825, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1684091050517
160
Austin
1684091107547
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
12
0
27
15
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1658857961319}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 16760...
["effective-altruism", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1672265509329
1684091105611
1
r0hwwMJSCI7riDM9UX5d
what-startup-idea-will-prasanth-and
50
What startup idea will Prasanth and Akash pursue for >3 months?
1672559940000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.90532465872575
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658858464363
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My friends who have worked in various top tech companies are serious about creating a startup.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What idea will they pursue for more than 3 months? Enter your sug...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672593001629
380
JamesGrugett
1662095507502
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e5ffe4c1645e", "prob": 0.4565376186997809, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.21244351078113, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.77289275523384, "textFts": "", "contractId": "r0hwwMJSCI7riDM9UX5d", "createdTime": 1658858464595, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
1
4
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658858464818}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1691181955896}]
["technology-default", "startups"]
1662095507325
1658858789350
False
True
0.4999999999999999
krmmkXxg3be0P9OVCWU5
{"NO": 195.06950197050517, "YES": 51.26377982711017}
1
will-prasanth-andor-akash-have-thou
183.84823858845502
Will Prasanth and/or Akash have thought of at least one okayish startup idea?
1658868683598
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0
2.991791511140646
True
play
YES
public
1658858760958
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be seeing them this afternoon. If they have an idea which I deem to be at least okayish (according to my high standards), this will resolve affirmatively.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 5.559409171071229, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658868683598
100
SG
1658868613235
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
4
0
0.5
1658868609239
0.39929040960723033
0.32325214248792655
MO3ijRQeEbZ1VBD3lKXj
{"NO": 390.71688441474225, "YES": 446.34532239887017}
0
will-usdt-lose-its-peg-permanently
997.8388700528873
Will USDT lose its peg permanently before 2024?
1672549140000
vXSW3L040XP7umxaP6S792G6qXx2
cpmm-1
0
0.9475972057687005
True
play
NO
public
1658859077088
Devlin Rabasso
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Tether takes action to return USDT to its $1 peg, its peg is lost.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.2767531058688943, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704218721252
420
DevlinRabasso
1704218721602
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrjkCsqSRx2lAg-ck2A82K0URG4wm-QeSEYILHy4w=s96-c
28
0
74
28
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "vXSW3L040XP7umxaP6S792G6qXx2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658859077439}, {"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1668448982033}]
["economics-default", "stablecoins"]
0.5
1672070850781
1704218705362
0.29
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.13850000000000007
ZqE93FP9uNwXKpZhhAz3
{"NO": 102.89872945458481, "YES": 83.71572355897291}
0.169632
what-will-the-price-of-ethereum-be
78.2247670622508
What will the price of Ethereum be on August 26th?
1661497140000
GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2
cpmm-1
0
4.902250465699723
True
play
MKT
public
1658859261294
Inga Wei
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.6010005698925105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663212994593
100
IngaWei
1661492440943
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c
15
0
1
16
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658859261631}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663031711356}]
["economics-default", "please-resolve"]
0.1385
1661492437157
0.169632
0.5000000000000003
5QKiK49ICv4cE0FZlZgx
{"NO": 46.54071176494557, "YES": 214.8656438798168}
0.17803971005277325
will-manifold-change-fees-from-a-pe
423.07477799571075
Will Manifold change fees from a percentage of trade amount to a percentage of profits by August 31?
1661398885186
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
3.058217868705504
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658859314578
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Manifold changes the fees to be a percentage of net profits instead of a percentage of the amount of each trade, by August 31. Resolves NO otherwise. This will be determined by my judgement and/or how the Manifold team describes any...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661398885186
100
jack
1661398870673
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
1
11
0
11
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658859314770}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cr...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1661392955419
1661398868864
0.17803971005277325
0.4999999999999999
NGIws74V6LjqYBYCGibY
{"NO": 10.624415681239407, "YES": 941.2282331590221}
0
will-russia-cut-off-gas-deliveries
3279.4288828944445
Will Russia cut off gas deliveries to Germany before August 28, 2022 at Midnight.
1661723940000
FAu0HcCEQdMk3wtDiJhfZOkbn4z1
cpmm-1
0
4.887913476187735
True
play
NO
public
1658859981705
David Kelly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if at 23:59 Central European Time on August 28, Russia has stopped delivering natural gas via pipeline to Germany.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 40.49023347515187, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661755989281
100
DavidKelly
1661717596755
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlo3EQ88hgdJgPVofTliRN8044axs5Azx29izlt=s96-c
35
0
1
34
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "FAu0HcCEQdMk3wtDiJhfZOkbn4z1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658859981363}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406874}, {"...
["politics-default", "stefans-group", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1661717596653
1659036460382
False
0.011161828140294826
0.3581874078925832
BaqC4WcTWOHXgjlTwPyc
{"NO": 101.1525783669932, "YES": 301.4161634365884}
0
will-isra-get-lasting-dungeon-madne
188.72973707131294
Will Isra get lasting dungeon madness?
1689736175696
9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2
cpmm-1
0
2.365603657166157
True
play
NO
public
1658860301985
extent_of_foxes
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't count if it's undone. It has to last beyond one day, reckoned as chrononauts do. It's okay if it's minor; she doesn't have to act like a dungeon monster.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.5432523580644273, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1689736175696
160
extent_of_foxes
1687653431519
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…318-f4ea213ccb90
9
0
7
[{"name": "This Used To Be About Markets", "slug": "this-used-to-be-about-markets", "userId": "9XABkCYQLYfELOiYGeGhvN71SUf2", "groupId": "RqpmlE3BYQqVyRiNfvMv", "createdTime": 1658860302248}]
["this-used-to-be-about-markets"]
0.09437536225118295
0.5
1687653431250
1658928793154
0.16
8Rs02HZOHzzy8Kp4oAn4
which-current-uci-worldteams-will-n
1377.4176414321048
Which current UCI WorldTeam(s) will not meet the sporting criterion to obtain the WorldTour license for 2023?
1666106012600
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.650583154594877
True
play
MKT
public
1658862166734
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this market by selecting as answers any current UCI WorldTeam (no ProTeams) that places 19th or lower on the UCI Team Ranking 2020-2022 (according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://lanternerouge.com.au/2022/05/25/worldtour-202...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666106012600
460.00000000000006
egroj
1665431308516
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1405b754abbf", "prob": 0.005216298219555629, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03189703909773519, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.0829832371400885, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8Rs02HZOHzzy8Kp4oAn4", "createdTime": 1658862166972, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
4
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658862167318}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1659383567419}]
["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing"]
1665431308210
{"5ad0f2f58ccf": 50, "8f1573838022": 50}
True
0.3320240392933341
pXz2eupaDzeZpYzWnq9w
{"NO": 990.7770216360128, "YES": 971.4107761251529}
0.3364164973742011
will-there-be-fewer-than-2-russian
1447.0959715183576
Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?
1767254340000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
9.563810973556173
False
basic
public
1658862677604
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attr...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.95492945612959, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
jack
1717101281983
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
3
22
0
16
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658862677813}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1717101278547
1659030695015
0.5000000000000002
Qb5p3hsSXcDhmKfRS7ky
{"NO": 170.87728645325782, "YES": 58.52152856333799}
1
will-i-test-positive-for-covid-in-2-45e845546e36
262.3594828310614
Will I test positive for COVID in 2022?
1659619864247
xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
0
2.914431879653562
True
play
YES
public
1658864420077
Gavriel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yep, another one of these.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My highest-risk activities in 2022 are two conferences, EAG SF and EAG DC. I currently do not plan to wear a mask at either if it's not required (but I've b...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 8.662517488917318, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1659619864247
100
GavrielK
1659675987794
0
https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476
10
0
0.5
1659344669445
1659675986123
0.7448917573567055
0.5000000000000001
7121k9xEgEulTqTAnLQG
{"NO": 67.35750983235008, "YES": 148.46154534052064}
0.3121017733044788
what-of-the-population-of-the-us-wi
58.581962528330244
What % of the population of the US will be bicameral (by eye, horomone, and posture tests) by 2030?
1672549140000
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-1
0
2.8501600322446894
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658865048512
Enopoletus Harding
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701401016813
100
EnopoletusHarding
1714689668679
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
2
0
67
3
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658865049105}]
["science-default"]
0.5
1667250149490
1701401055984
0.31
0.7148195847828136
lw5wMMTZLxELMP9Zi44J
{"NO": 562.5813008211311, "YES": 58.75580720150907}
1
will-the-video-archives-podcast-wit
422.5813008211311
Will "The Video Archives Podcast with Quentin Tarantino and Roger Avary" have at least 20 episodes by the end of 2022?
1672549140000
K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2
cpmm-1
0
3.714312562943629
True
play
YES
public
1658865244966
Eli Gaultney
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting in July 2022, they've kept to about one episode per week. Will we get at least 20 episodes by the end of the year?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-video-a...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673108849591
140
EliGaultney
1672546750215
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c
2
0
2
3
0.5
1672546750076
1672325851510
0.96
dO7oo7wHfuOxlKSf9nOX
what-is-the-best-explananation-for
20
What is the best explananation for Directive 4?
1660629399026
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.962206060634121
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658865920732
Enopoletus Harding
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Watch the relevant Robocop scene and read Yud on human evolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr3t1uZNbKo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://m.y...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660629399026
260
EnopoletusHarding
1658970379637
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "3bf7e4ba3452", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.8446708789263, "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 35.13165518672758, "textFts": "", "contractId": "dO7oo7wHfuOxlKSf9nOX", "createdTime": 1658865921063, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658865921470}]
["science-default"]
1658970376158
1658885109472
True
0.14849241772200567
uFm9IkuNGF3Fjqn8cwzo
{"NO": 755.9521892189159, "YES": 887.346777771744}
0.12934841370473546
will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president
42479.94344308179
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024?
1722484740000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0.4388012992794005
9.185125122835116
False
basic
public
1658866391553
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Newsom formally announces he is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if he does not run....
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.07065158629526472, "month": 0.10928757816304206}
0
{"creatorFee": 131.50162474096612, "platformFee": 0.26880880462588796, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
BTE
1720116269773
1.3
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
101
3
https://firebasestorage.…8c6-3d32d436c1e7
38
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658866391971}, {"name": "2024 DNC Primaries", "slug": "2024-dnc-primaries", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "tSy5ixnOKGUxP...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-dnc-primaries"]
0.15792784735328452
0.5
1720116266680
1691340221529
0.5246619007769053
oCcwlaZNwjiUQMYI8KiL
{"NO": 177.68321694145612, "YES": 145.00481617453812}
0.5749223293912812
how-many-electoral-votes-will-the-w
32
How many electoral votes will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election have?
1734152400000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658870989486
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This factors in faithless electors, and chooses that vote. Note that a candidate can win without a majority if it goes to congress.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2024-12-14 12:00 am...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.23693018940566593, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
160
Ibozz91
1690571928392
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
5
0
3
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658870989856}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSe...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "ancient-markets"]
0.5018587360594795
1690571928248
1658872795313
0.22187811180280162
QudBAqamsiaEyaXbysN8
{"NO": 123.54124576340375, "YES": 841.2067101971425}
0
will-apple-inc-aapl-market-value-re
1270.8348653529636
Will Apple Inc (AAPL) market value reach $3T before the end of 2022?
1672472557606
V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53
cpmm-1
0
2.8170870835806308
True
play
NO
public
1658872912918
Bram Stolk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if at any time before 2023-01-01 the market capitalization of AAPL reaches $3T.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the current market capitalization, see: ", "type": "tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.39732356871183, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672472557606
220
BramStolk
1670639529610
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c
18
0
17
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658872914155}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1670639529446
0.04
0.04328724417742917
TMRj1VXeZdVygclOpx6S
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04328724417742917
what-will-the-population-of-neom-be
0
What will the population of NEOM be in 2030?
1658875389764
GirMvkHoS9Zp1wdzkjXwBfwFG9i2
cpmm-1
0
9.11345920723552
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658874897552
mholk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUTHDR5e7k5.44?alt=media&token=f53ac19b-9fbb-45fe-9cb8-9b4621a55d6e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658875389764
100
mholk
1658874897552
0
https://firebasestorage.…c66-52dc42e2d345
0
0
0
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "GirMvkHoS9Zp1wdzkjXwBfwFG9i2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658874897721}, {"name": "NEOM", "slug": "neom", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "Beev1Tj1QqRAMrPwcyeg", "createdTime": 1683184073937}]
["world-default", "neom"]
0.04328724417742917
0.681264406103477
k0DiGyhP90WQ8caILdNL
{"NO": 26226.030383403042, "YES": 352.4350849000438}
1
will-the-democrats-control-the-sena
45661.811270040256
Will the Democrats control the Senate after the Midterms?
1668556740000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
0.7892384970154396
True
basic
YES
public
1658875083408
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 3, 6:29pm: 50 caucusing democrats + VP counts as control", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.536355810587431, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670435103198
1700
NathanpmYoung
1670435111073
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
1
62
0
2
49
[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666048112714}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 165...
["us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "please-resolve", "us-politics"]
0.5
1668556602948
1670435108110
False
0.9937520223529631
8SDRpQqZbmvlLUhD6flY
who-will-win-the-2023-argentinian-p
10604.496347903243
Who will win the 2023 Argentinian Presidential election?
1704202400642
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.622004748195701
True
basic
76f5be6f0239
public
1658875244959
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 6:32pm: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 6:32pm: ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704202400642
1040
FRCassarino
1704202401386
0.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
1
18
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "356d24d13e7e", "prob": 0.00019090724407303788, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00023742015311271902, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.243403984160943, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8SDRpQqZbmvlLUhD6flY", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime"...
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658875245476}]
["politics-default"]
0.09507701133348719
1704201713898
1704202391106
{"76f5be6f0239": 100}
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
True
0.5501848864588919
zHLdG6uGUBmXP2LxAzzp
{"NO": 1058.9089164996349, "YES": 926.6122237954927}
0.582945528213377
what-will-the-population-of-neom-be-21887fbe6ac8
666.6770778759778
What will the population of NEOM be in 2030?
1893567540000
GirMvkHoS9Zp1wdzkjXwBfwFG9i2
cpmm-1
0
9.727931623109797
False
play
public
1658875486864
mholk
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUTHDR5e7k5.44?alt=media&token=f53ac19b-9fbb-45fe-9cb8-9b4621a55d6e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.neom...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011338980054687808}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.404084656329304, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
mholk
1717787651640
0
https://firebasestorage.…c66-52dc42e2d345
14
0
1
6
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "GirMvkHoS9Zp1wdzkjXwBfwFG9i2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658875487120}, {"name": "NEOM", "slug": "neom", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "Beev1Tj1QqRAMrPwcyeg", "createdTime": 1683184056697}, {"name": "Charter Cities", ...
["world-default", "neom", "charter-cities"]
0.4314537568379175
1717787648458
1697145261045
0.4331207996246993
B2ciiTo94tC4n9sLzUMj
{"NO": 123.92921681045033, "YES": 284.0622205556424}
0
will-the-democrats-have-control-of
1275.648298652253
Will the Democrats have control of the House after the Midterms?
1664665140000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
1.618223418131903
True
play
NO
public
1658875716097
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 13.327984201345783, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670435063667
180
NathanpmYoung
1670435070401
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
41
0
1
40
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1658904780930}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658904776467...
["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1664663315914
1670435067170
0.25000000000000006
0.5000000000000021
dghYYdlvBSo6DD8gbf0E
{"NO": 11366.733059346698, "YES": 0.8797602572158212}
1
will-trading-fees-be-removed-by-end
11984.624356879624
Will trading fees be removed by end of August?
1661398788188
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.310823083027555
True
play
YES
public
1658885427007
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by August 31, Manifold does not charge fees on trades on yes/no markets. NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if/when the change is made, even if...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.882444600578739, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1661398788188
100
jack
1661633914135
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
9
0
7
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1658885427297}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cr...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1661398762105
1661633912016
0.9946750708405131
ox8HxVHlKlmtyuDTIDoL
which-nail-polish-color-will-i-like
207.28335360408587
Which nail polish color will I like the most?
1660589022613
sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.8108907385464885
True
play
25db07bdaad5
public
1658888968365
Martin Randall
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will buy the top few colors by probability and resolve to the one I like the most.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Small print: I won't bet in this market. I may skip colors that I know that...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 7.718680829726279, "platformFee": 1.9296702074315697, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660589022613
959.9999999999999
MartinRandall
1660589111861
0
https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "88ba6eec0875", "prob": 0.18786338323512633, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.335204287098652, "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.064179324667826, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ox8HxVHlKlmtyuDTIDoL", "createdTime": 1658888968578, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1664042551197}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664042554547}]
["selfresolving", "fun"]
1660265263809
1660589093916
{"25db07bdaad5": 100}
True
0.10941439663514123
d0MDTM4ZFgfzWKZqbuCU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.10941439663514123
what-of-the-population-of-the-us-wi-78443e7f43e2
0
What % of the population of the US will be bicameral (by eye, horomone, and posture tests) by the end of the year?
1672549140000
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
cpmm-1
0
7.113368721456311
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658891570704
Enopoletus Harding
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently the value is .2%-.3%. Edward Neumeier is probably the single most important example, but there are others. Jaynes wrote a number of words about the issue, but I'm not sure if he truly understood what he was reading. His explanations for t...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701398726663
100
EnopoletusHarding
1701398723929
0
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
0
0
67
True
2
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658891572522}]
["science-default"]
0.10941439663514123
1701398723223
Vt8rFS3ParWXQb1CWUKe
where-will-the-next-magnitude-7-ear-eed12c1f37f6
343
Where will the next magnitude ≥7 earthquake be?
1662867853574
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.7219455739651615
True
play
MKT
public
1658896751844
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the Wikipedia article", "type": "text"}, {"text": " List of Earthquakes in [year]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (1, 2).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662867853574
799.9999999999999
LivInTheLookingGlass
1662855264196
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6b7bcf820404", "prob": 0.050955673659483613, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6971848852415369, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.9849987691351, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Vt8rFS3ParWXQb1CWUKe", "createdTime": 1658896752090, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
8
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658896752269}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659591364817}, {"name": "Olivia", ...
["science-default", "olivia"]
1662855264031
1662703588765
{"016ea1a7899c": 57.83052989953975, "01cf9ef6d4f1": 10.26297084554178, "d365987ef4ff": 26.921108746337467, "e6000ce34f27": 4.985390508581013}
True
0.7735211871229327
I9S27INmBUHjymK0g1nn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7735211871229327
the-swamp-will-it-be-drained
0
The swamp: will it be drained?
1658902705898
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
3.9566320752104502
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658902558080
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“An initial estimate by the Trump official who came up with Schedule F found it could apply to as many as 50,000 federal workers — a fraction of a workforce of more than 2 million, but a segment with a profound role in shaping American life.”", "ty...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658902705898
100
Gigacasting
1658902603674
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
0
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658902558408}]
["politics-default"]
0.7735211871229327
1658902598013
0.6962336900271989
Ci0Zuj3QbgXRPmZ8NBjH
{"NO": 12892.15607237069, "YES": 391.3813370835156}
1
will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-bd5ee56971ea
147553.91509761714
Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
1680226833712
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
0.443396248428519
True
basic
YES
public
1658902739887
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 23.90860953259203, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680226833712
1213.4754527606378
LivInTheLookingGlass
1680218744525
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
5
198
0
154
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1662506778281}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1659853630428}, {"name": "Law & Order", ...
["us-politics", "politics-default", "law-order", "olivia", "magaland", "culture-war"]
0.5
1680218744349
1680211994190
0.99
0.5
UbaeS4mJQDVs7KgcRBTj
{"NO": 104.76218787158145, "YES": 95.45428749787186}
0.5232445915265814
what-percent-of-the-swamp-will-be-d
33.570620190238415
What percent of the swamp will be drained?
1658903654876
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
2.7736708063077655
True
play
CANCEL
public
1658903110874
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“New presidents typically get to replace ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "more than 4,000", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://presidentialtransition.org/faq/", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1658903654876
100
Gigacasting
1658903317633
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658903111183}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1658903317506
1658903137275
0.5232445915265813
0.80485512956125
jtIuYCcavXbtg5EgSZpr
{"NO": 1093.9553381301382, "YES": 970.9053752828904}
0.8229183755014744
how-many-successful-landing-attempt
587.4517528478422
How many successful landing attempts will SpaceX have in their current run?
1735707540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
9.704692463762164
False
play
public
1658904256932
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falc...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0.017776978483353134, "month": 0.017776978483353578}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.431514613974402, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
LivInTheLookingGlass
1719989106596
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
0
16
1
2
5
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658904256010}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658952679196}, {"name": "Olivia", "s...
["science-default", "space", "olivia", "spacex", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "space-exploration", "new-years-resolutions-2025"]
0.8990908649623439
1719989103467
1704622041182
XfCWiN2kGf5wRSSeZ3XB
what-country-will-implement-a-unive
20
What country will implement a universal basic income first?
1924945140000
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1658908343409
N.C. Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
360
NcyRocks
1683093844212
0
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
1
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "daf041a628c5", "prob": 0.6944444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.4578098794425, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.241436346954703, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XfCWiN2kGf5wRSSeZ3XB", "createdTime": 1658908343643, "probChanges": {"day": -0.305555555555...
https://firebasestorage.…aa3-fb30b6c5e773
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658908343456}]
["politics-default"]
1682933579690
1683093842597
True
True
0.49999999999999983
Efkseroze82VrT4Fr0BR
{"NO": 30.000542296880127, "YES": 333.3273079213628}
0
will-president-biden-declare-nation
295.3525797168985
Will President Biden declare National Emergency on climate before September?
1662808146167
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
3.3381114359079596
True
play
NO
public
1658918255816
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.1469742287596114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662808146167
100
itsTomekK
1662787218354
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
12
0
12
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658918255943}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 16607658569...
["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]
0.5
1662787216960
1662147037385
0.09244365397739741