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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49855515893502456 | NRqmbWkti0T23h8WUsMB | {"NO": 118.28117738641183, "YES": 121.74888280675587} | 1 | will-the-price-chart-of-this-market | 190.0238814811281 | Will the price chart of this market cross 50% even number of times before January 1, 2023? | 1672527540000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9393295221049723 | True | play | YES | public | 1658918582839 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\", if the price chart of this market will move through 50% line an even number of times (ie. 2, 4, 8, 22 times...) in 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If it crosses 5... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2713543361242783, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672960159028 | 120 | itsTomekK | 1672960156444 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672525245557 | 1672960150528 | 0.49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7097843212181809 | ZTUSe3vyR7GFT3CzrHf3 | {"NO": 1088.0783867726886, "YES": 951.1389562162983} | 0.7366919308318333 | when-will-googles-carbonlang-be-dep | 146.5668170640198 | (When) will Google's Carbon-lang be deprecated? | 1785189540000 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.587898580091752 | False | play | public | 1658925466460 | ^,^ Épi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Google recently announced [carbon-lang](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/carbon-language/carbon-lang", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/carbon-language/carbon-lang", "class": "no-under... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6127479774920555, "platformFee": 0.3362592397088669, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1714617932937 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 0 | 11 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1658925466942}] | ["programming"] | 0.5 | 1714617929681 | 1692735927149 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15055417192104872 | n3TLdte1NLCCgSiqArHA | {"NO": 636.474938481954, "YES": 5841.33873309948} | 0.018946060053334025 | will-elizabeth-warren-run-for-presi | 17177.041368560524 | Will Elizabeth Warren run for president in 2024? | 1722484740000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.058782772887215104 | 10.414292014504365 | False | basic | public | 1658930769784 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Warren formally announces she is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if she does not ru... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.116298359620824, "platformFee": 2.9941720710047233, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1717249814772 | 1.1 | 1 | 64 | 0 | 37 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658930781238}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.1757751014652903 | 0.5 | 1717249811640 | 1714842099313 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
yl3Ku3NbfC72JGVB7TSZ | if-nancy-pelosi-visits-taiwan-how-w | 383.0036679473697 | If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan how will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) respond? | 1662310943382 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.783020081765322 | True | play | MKT | public | 1658936126909 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If [this market](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-duri", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-duri", "clas... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7067872629297882, "platformFee": 0.17669681573244705, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662310943382 | 600 | BTE | 1662317276952 | 0 | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "10e6c2a756fe", "prob": 0.13417956392154273, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.225767853405329, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.26761109270761, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yl3Ku3NbfC72JGVB7TSZ", "createdTime": 1658936127169, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 8 | [{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1660934639156}, {"name": "Pelosi Taiwan visit", "slug": "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "uB4QeEnBjdn9XyvGRCzR",... | ["global-macro", "china", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"] | 1662309352136 | 1662317286645 | {"0940a2bf398f": 29.720044500173135, "6916955fe492": 18.540807620697485, "997853bd692a": 4.775402079663628, "cd7965f4afdc": 17.568165671870744, "cfa41db8d38e": 29.395580127595007} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7931071940359232 | GQC7FaEbWxeeYRKlcg4O | {"NO": 457.14953986105877, "YES": 116.3929610178823} | 1 | will-xi-jinping-hold-the-formal-pol | 1392.762652375258 | Will Xi Jinping hold the formal political title of "People's Leader" at the beginning of his third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party? | 1666314899889 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2467480331812837 | True | play | YES | public | 1658937269884 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping is given the formal Chinese Communist Party (CCP) title of \"People's Leader\", the most exclusive political title in the CCP, ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Onl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.69658891523323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666314899889 | 211.13000203174295 | BTE | 1666314874279 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1661934380729}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime":... | ["who-does-xi-think-he-is", "china", "global-macro", "ccp-20th-party-congress"] | 0.5 | 1665790821682 | 1666314874278 | 0.9377191252153978 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21743297187935462 | HUv9oYW6Ux6IbULHWLr9 | {"NO": 57.17563152430046, "YES": 521.7182638112918} | 0 | by-the-end-of-2022-will-iran-announ | 3745.650206617461 | By the end of 2022 will Iran announce successful enrichment of enough Uranium to assemble a nuclear warhead? | 1672536928377 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9164417510005527 | True | play | NO | public | 1658939684663 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Iran makes a formal announcement that they have passed the threshold the Iranian Nuclear Agreement was intended to prevent and can credibly assemble their first nuclear warhead. Resolves NO if they don't.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.410877135360636, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672536928377 | 424.8957882080423 | BTE | 1672388797956 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658965276525}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1658939696902}, {"nam... | ["global-macro", "nuclear-risk", "iran"] | 0.5 | 1672388797842 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000021 | aDpHbQEE00uQeRU9w7MT | {"NO": 1596.7453581131906, "YES": 6.2627393586517535} | 1 | if-nancy-pelosi-tries-to-visit-taiw | 2619.60829298952 | If Nancy Pelosi tries to visit Taiwan in August, will China allow her to land? | 1659508281209 | 0SO51c0Z0ZQWhvRtZ40jvFFnkHe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.084993618799956 | True | play | YES | public | 1658941566545 | PeterBorah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if her plane lands in Taiwan without incident. Resolves no if China implements a no-fly zone, intercepts her plane, attempts to shoot it down, etc. Resolves N/A if she decides not to go, even if the decision is made due to fears she wo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.10823549479453, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659508281209 | 100 | PeterBorah | 1659498515227 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzavsxdwtInYnMOxyWWyrb0GMkgLq1JY7BPyOMa=s96-c | 18 | 0 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "0SO51c0Z0ZQWhvRtZ40jvFFnkHe2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658941566843}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950084251}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ... | ["world-default", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "china"] | 0.5 | 1659498515066 | 1659474367841 | 0.996093133048717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | j37DjcMWgbQgKQ3IbVB1 | {"NO": 22.941573387056167, "YES": 435.88989435406677} | 0 | will-i-end-today-july-27th-at-the-t | 10370.652326406742 | Will I end today July 27th at the top of both Daily Leaderboards? | 1658980740000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.770595152832414 | True | play | NO | public | 1658942997801 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I am the top trader and creator for the day. Resolves NO if I do not. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 67.03709081006363, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658982322369 | 100 | BTE | 1658983031440 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1658980945279}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1658980702105 | 1658983029134 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26984094046866236 | ilKXUg6Zb3caLkAkYsA7 | {"NO": 999.8144925041081, "YES": 980.7354483126985} | 0.27365384756094585 | when-will-the-first-mars-samples-be | 349.06093733149856 | When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth? | 2556161940000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572910618351866 | False | play | public | 1658944003151 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NASA has finished the system requirements review for its Mars Sample Return Program, which is nearing completion of the conceptual design phase. During this phase, the program team evaluated and refined the architecture to return the scientifically... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.464043028963964, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | wasabipesto | 1713224406717 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1659140650488}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1659140659593}, {"n... | ["science-default", "technology-default", "world-default", "mars"] | 0.175 | 1713224403383 | 1713218177696 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | sqjvEGi1wuPlHDyO956L | {"NO": 53.49386255047658, "YES": 186.93733305505918} | 1 | will-anyone-beat-marshall-today-at | 171.07652824730178 | Will anyone beat Marshall today at chess? | 1658974291775 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9651681021201513 | True | play | YES | public | 1658944786834 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.0176836461753815, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1658974291775 | 100 | Austin | 1658980460470 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969414}] | ["chess"] | 0.5 | 1658974289152 | 1658980456444 | 0.1885408961803604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iT0lHlfxI4uMEU6MUfqw | who-will-win-the-2022-vuelta-a-espa | 1267.3539798549057 | Who will win the 2022 Vuelta a España? | 1662904800000 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.654301749524011 | True | play | 9f479336b600 | public | 1658945096649 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vuelta_a_Espa%C3%B1a", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vuelta_a_Espa%C3%B1a", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underli... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5726176385544034, "platformFee": 0.14315440963860085, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662924413097 | 500 | egroj | 1662864850356 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5e8ed6a1595c", "prob": 0.006391975212705112, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.046141062139542055, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.172451095074872, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iT0lHlfxI4uMEU6MUfqw", "createdTime": 1658945096856, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658945097121}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1658945358827}] | ["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing"] | 1662864850178 | {"9f479336b600": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3085539748403262 | uIC32Qpk2qzG8v8tBqEz | {"NO": 63.12062853781428, "YES": 2077.5872816347255} | 0 | will-there-be-a-federal-reserve-rat | 4279.367740804854 | Will there be a Federal Reserve rate hike in August 2022? | 1662091140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.979166173998469 | True | play | NO | public | 1658947771459 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.288286293425845, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662148788285 | 200 | Duncn | 1662057019705 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658947771963}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1662057018377 | 1660097749683 | 0.013376313400583652 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I0PiJRZdPLQAVODA2e7x | the-most-enthusiastic-unaugumented | 1000 | My favourite enthusiastic up-and-coming pornstar 🍑 mentioned in this thread will be: | 1663651020000 | 4GFP8KdP8GZW442kyb1uF1wrokC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.659552525350163 | True | play | ff4a86bc229e | public | 1659034421885 | Martin Lucius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Help us find some new talent! What star of those mentioned here will be my favourite by the 9/2022? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amateurs / onlyfans welcome as well !", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663653827637 | 240 | Autochthon | 1659037477089 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9a2728751b34", "prob": 0.008264462809917354, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.18106530826617057, "userId": "4GFP8KdP8GZW442kyb1uF1wrokC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.72783699194047, "textFts": "", "contractId": "I0PiJRZdPLQAVODA2e7x", "createdTime": 1659034422086, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "4GFP8KdP8GZW442kyb1uF1wrokC3", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1660946863871}] | ["entertainment"] | 1659037476939 | {"ff4a86bc229e": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vjjsdVkG0UrVyjfKP5F1 | which-of-these-nasdaq-ethereum-silv | 1065.7474789950934 | Which of these (NASDAQ, Ethereum, Silver) will perform best in August 2022? | 1662012000000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.667889146366671 | True | play | c2d703927d0e | public | 1659036010778 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Performance of Asset* = September 1 Price / August 1 Open price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Each assets will have their open price from September 1 divided by its August 1 ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03845148270241566, "platformFee": 0.009612870675603916, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662808197633 | 500.00000000000006 | itsTomekK | 1661999423133 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c2d703927d0e", "prob": 0.9603219656993445, "text": "NASDAQ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 72.87528623545926, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.0110194395219345, "textFts": "'nasdaq':1", "contractId": "vjjsdVkG0UrVyjfKP5F1", "createdTime": 1659036010778, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1659036012308}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1691181913483}] | ["economics-default", "crypto-speculation"] | 1661999422978 | 1660608407354 | False | {"c2d703927d0e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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YUbKvk9Fp33LRbbarZ4Y | which-party-wins-polands-2023-gener | 7016.007043881042 | Which party will win 2023 Polish Parliamentary Elections? | 1697622672340 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6223444232663 | True | basic | 3a950f1252c7 | public | 1659038653003 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who wins ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "most seats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " to lower house of Parliament of Poland (Sejm). Currently scheduled for November 11, 2023.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697622672340 | 1080 | itsTomekK | 1697540896926 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1 | 34 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "de46d680b760", "prob": 0.015019557001243, "text": "KO", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9962347496335178, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.33293524859417, "textFts": "'ko':1", "contractId": "YUbKvk9Fp33LRbbarZ4Y", "createdTime": 1659038653003, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 7 | [{"name": "Poland", "slug": "poland", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA", "createdTime": 1664714166981}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1661779579115}, {"name": "... | ["politics-default", "stefans-group", "elections-world", "poland", "2023", "us-politics"] | 1697540896637 | 1696255119486 | False | {"3a950f1252c7": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m8sWyJScnR9gzf3brVoq | which-party-will-win-senate-at-the | 170 | Which party will win Senate at the 2022 Italian general election? | 1664143140000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.784730694915448 | True | play | d4aced54d4c0 | public | 1659039189617 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A snap election is due to be held in Italy on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "25 September 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664271123808 | 359.99999999999994 | itsTomekK | 1663018722597 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d4aced54d4c0", "prob": 0.7846854791299234, "text": "Fratelli d'Italia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.371249442101316, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.468042785667453, "textFts": "'d':2 'fratelli':1 'italia':3", "contractId": "m8sWyJScnR9gzf3brVoq", "createdTime": 165903918... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1659039189818}, {"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406876}, {"... | ["politics-default", "stefans-group", "elections-world"] | 1663018722398 | {"d4aced54d4c0": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17071354937867558 | zCFjmTnlpiAGBbWjYQjF | {"NO": 1196.0534896260374, "YES": 2387.2670972643696} | 0.09349399114638175 | will-there-be-a-robust-third-party | 11840.924496188492 | Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race? | 1733410740000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.53689381492961 | False | basic | public | 1659041624460 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nate Silver's tweet:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1552734696697733120?s=20&t=MhMr54FoyAUmzLWAoy49Kw", "class": "no-underline !text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10595342300483664} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.79963091383604, "platformFee": 0.8572455717354139, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1375 | Manifold | 1719167250159 | 0.3 | 4 | 130 | 0 | 84 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1659046254971}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.1260758037550099 | 0.5 | 1719167247089 | 1718667224574 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000009 | RDA7KUrcMWW0pGc93GUs | {"NO": 5.829596321337476, "YES": 1715.3846422260908} | 0 | will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-23ad605bddfc | 9867.886069271555 | Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by September 11th, 2022? | 1662965940000 | c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.4066248901315905 | True | play | NO | public | 1659041685417 | Dr P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Killary’s Revenge...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lock him up!", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.584843240572155, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662969716869 | 100 | DrP | 1704342924604 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 61 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1659041685652}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660724840589}] | ["politics-default", "magaland"] | 0.5 | 1662955728700 | 1662184516241 | 0.0033869091893274283 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3118886396732854 | 0UZQvXEFM9KwWlsYvGYX | {"NO": 71.51216659538413, "YES": 615.8491768392608} | 0 | will-cruise-automation-ipo-by-2024 | 676.4238608132288 | Will Cruise Automation IPO by 2024? | 1704095940000 | GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0234715690815244 | True | play | NO | public | 1659042676073 | Inga Wei | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0839862144605104, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705365767743 | 160 | IngaWei | 1705365768059 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1663187357552}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130658717}] | ["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1699352727800 | 1699385000284 | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | 88IqSSg0iUIRm72sP1cN | {"NO": 531.180368060535, "YES": 18.825996970694476} | 1 | will-another-manifold-user-create-o | 510 | Will another Manifold user create & operate a market-making bot derived from this one by Sept 1st? | 1659107707935 | dW7AKgnpkjMxpDWwUMLfWlNyaMe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.029823014429111 | True | play | YES | public | 1659042709789 | James' bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check out this bot's implementation here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/market-maker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/market-maker", "class": "no-u... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.7729330445009, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659107707935 | 100 | JamesBot | 1660145906973 | 0 | 8 | 0 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1663443119869}] | ["trading-bots"] | 0.5 | 1659097104492 | 1660145906342 | 0.9657713107199668 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | NICxx1Q7Bv7Syt7gRA1o | {"NO": 267.43580601715627, "YES": 37.392150845195715} | 1 | will-conjectures-after-party-fill-u | 260 | Will Conjecture's after party fill up? | 1659337140000 | YijiG6QeVjUY2DYNZR0QcNQDYv62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2380950115246767 | True | play | YES | public | 1659049080630 | Jonathan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to Yes if we get more than 160 participants at our party, which has a maximum capacity of 175 and 163 RSVPs. The party runs after the first full day of EAG which might lead people to be tired, or maybe to be energised to meet... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.173394751091481, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659341407884 | 100 | JonathanL | 1659267774521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw_UqBwaD96L53fpSjTMbFoy9-ShX4dmHyalp9n=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "YijiG6QeVjUY2DYNZR0QcNQDYv62", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1659049080946}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1659267771120 | 0.8773335909537966 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ugq8HJdVvtUBLwK2yq22 | when-will-sota-on-mmlu-stem-be-90 | 374 | When will SOTA on MMLU STEM be >= 90%? | 1956556800000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1659049564367 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MMLU: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300v3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300v3", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1923632074709788, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 660 | vluzko | 1720037123328 | 0 | 7 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6dc8766eb322", "prob": 0.04119450875110414, "text": "Before 2023", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9611142894357219, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.3700120808954, "textFts": "'2023':2", "contractId": "Ugq8HJdVvtUBLwK2yq22", "createdTime": 1659049564367, "probChanges": {"day":... | 5 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1659049564944}] | ["technical-ai-timelines"] | 1720037119792 | 1679562164334 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | RTUHXryNQgnTELJ1MB9f | {"NO": 16.712253103932603, "YES": 598.363364760604} | 0 | will-i-beat-portal-before-chizardiu | 1038 | Will I beat Portal before @Chizardium in a race? | 1659113828784 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.196221411209206 | True | play | NO | public | 1659050459694 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Me and my friend, after having beaten it casually, will now race to see who can beat it first from the start. YES=me, NO=Chiz. We will play in multiple sessions but still at the exact same time in each session.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.991592208138844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659113828784 | 100 | Ibozz91 | 1659114141560 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1659050459542}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1659094308367 | 1659114139953 | 0.02717105445011038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | C8YqCTKzyKjpv5FUuIj8 | {"NO": 57.75211017325631, "YES": 173.15384615384616} | 0.2501109589890544 | will-some-rich-businessperson-or-ce | 75 | Will "some rich businessperson or celebrity" impact the 2024 presidential election as a third party, according to Nate Silver's criteria? | 1659053648939 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9214393630596325 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1659053256198 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight fame, just tweeted the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"How likely is a robust third party movement in America?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1659053648939 | 100 | Conflux | 1659053670476 | 0 | 1 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1659053256526}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181865473}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1659053282951 | 1659053665132 | False | 0.2501109589890544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29210773433497356 | V0NXy27XOPnoB8jDQ6Kt | {"NO": 43.919859373420955, "YES": 978.5950960669134} | 0 | will-the-right-to-contraception-act | 2575.228172391287 | Will the Right to Contraception Act pass into law in 2022? | 1672559940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.885204131025522 | True | play | NO | public | 1659057374529 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if H. R. 8373, the Right to Contraception Act, passes into law by the end of 2022. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8373/text?r=1&s=1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.198339147832021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672727698830 | 140 | jack | 1672178004509 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1659057374789}, {"name": "US Legislature", "slug": "us-legislation", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "osXYfZnBqEFqaNvb8thn", "createdTime": 1659560873517}] | ["us-politics", "us-legislation"] | 0.5 | 1672178004397 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LyMNq0R3sCZ79SUdq3K8 | who-will-win-the-kaleidoscope-fanta | 340 | Who will win the Kaleidoscope fantasy football league in 2022? | 1672117140000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.722635350470442 | True | play | d13e4fc5d3d2 | public | 1659092547486 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www76.myfantasyleague.com/2022/standings?L=74917&W=16", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www76.myfantasyleague.com/2022/standings?L=74917&W=16", "class": "no-un... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672790666469 | 340 | dglid | 1672096870520 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ff6cacf663e6", "prob": 0.05165289256198347, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4465703347396797, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.559031345820518, "textFts": "", "contractId": "LyMNq0R3sCZ79SUdq3K8", "createdTime": 1659092547795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 2 | 3 | [{"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "createdTime": 1659092547980}] | ["fantasy-football-nfl"] | 1672096869796 | {"d13e4fc5d3d2": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5442288796866223 | NOpP33b7xFT02Zd12ePz | {"NO": 634.6355715014104, "YES": 4016.696000954841} | 0.15871973486171945 | will-chinaa-economy-enter-a-recessi | 27284.103511183308 | Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025? | 1775015940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.01678703285014974 | 7.826233326374444 | False | basic | public | 1659096574008 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Chinese economy has two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth by the end of 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 29, 8:09am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will China'a economy en... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.00018396049803193204, "month": -0.01928111217082809} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.08373291592127, "platformFee": 15.714708908031174, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1878.0601728239342 | BTE | 1719762639218 | 1.2 | 3 | 162 | 1 | 53 | [{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1659118373139}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime"... | ["china", "global-macro", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "chinese-politics", "nathans-dashboard", "xi-jinping"] | 0.14247547317746226 | 0.5 | 1719762636158 | 1706873670045 |
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