CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will my 5yo learn to buckle her own car seat by 2022-08-28?

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Martin Randall

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Will Google Stadia be shut down this year?

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Dan Cîrnaț

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumor: Google Stadia might be shut down before the end of 2022", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://gamerant.com/rumor-google-stadia-shut-down/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http...

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DanCirnat

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["technology-default", "internet", "gaming", "free-money"]

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Will Manifold users be able to change the header image by the end of August?

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Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if users are able to edit the header image on their profiles by the end of August. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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["manifold-6748e065087e"]

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Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive any electoral votes in the 2024 US presidential election?

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Matt P

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["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

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will-the-presidential-candidate-fro-c9058ea694e2

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Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive at least 1.5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

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Matt P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event it is close, I will use the count reported by the FEC for final resolution. (example: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/2840/2020presgeresults.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href":...

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["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

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Will the 2022-2023 NFL season be Tom Brady's last?

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Ryan P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if Tom Brady isn't on an NFL roster when the 2023-2024 NFL regular season starts", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Who will win the Contract Chaos fantasy football league in 2022?

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David Glidden

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What will be the median bet-weighted answer to this question?

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Tell me a story using only emojis. Top 3 payout.

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Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whoever tells the best short story using only emojis and punctuation wins. Resolution will be based on the community's choice. Top three payout. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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what-mythology-is-the-ocp-divine-pa

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What mythology is the OCP Divine Pantheon in Robocop based off on?

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Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must substantiate your answer. I don't know the answer. That's why I'm asking you. All I know is that it bears zero resemblance to anything in the Bible. My guess is Roman or Sumerian, possibly even Hindu.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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["culture-default"]

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Will @BruceGrugett's Hunter Biden indictment market have more M$ traded than @dadonk's Hunter Biden indictment market at close?

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wavedash

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Will Brad Raffensperger be reelected Secretary of State in Georgia?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Raffensperger is reelected. Resolves NO if he loses. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

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When Manifold have implemented loans will James say they need an alternate question approval process which allows users to check/improve each others' long term questions?

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Nathan Young

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Will the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) be passed by both houses of Congress by September 1?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is passed by both the House and the Senate by September 1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it is not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?

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Brian T. Edwards

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Jordan Berman

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[EAG SF haiku] What will the first line of the EA haiku be?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.8560879264555865

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1659130250415

SG

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what-does-manifold-think-the-best-d

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What does Manifold think the best designed Slay the Spire character is?

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SneakySly

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Will I remain essentially vegetarian at the end of August?

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[EAG SF haiku] What will the second line of the EA haiku be?

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What corrective eye surgery will I get?

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Cedar

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when-will-blue-origin-reach-orbit

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When will Blue Origin reach orbit?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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Will the Respect for Marriage Act (federal codification of same-sex marriage) pass the Senate in 2022?

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Jack

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Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

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Brian T. Edwards

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Jack

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N.C. Young

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Will Pope Francis still be Pope on Jan. 1st, 2023?

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cpmm-1

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Duncn

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3.77607061988348

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Duncn

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Will Deadpool-style oxygen deprivation chambers become common by 2032?

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Will Aella get out of Goebbels posture by the end of 2023?

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When will the EcoRocket Demonstrator launch (if at all)?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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When will Trump launch his 2024 presidential campaign (in months from August 2022)?

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1.9802574356633909

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conditional-on-nancy-pelosi-visitin

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Conditional on Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan, will China use direct military force against the US or Taiwan with casualties?

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1659232025438

Keepcalmandchill

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Will Musk be part of a significant event worthy of media coverage by the main media outlets during the week of 1st to 7th of August?

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1659246589645

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Will the host of Jeopardy! change before market close?

1672549140000

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1659247869453

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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Conditional on nancy pelosi visiting Taiwan, Will china fire upon her plane or a plane escorting her?

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1659250192673

ussgordoncaptain

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ussgordoncaptain

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will-owen-wilson-say-wow-in-loki-se

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Will Owen Wilson say "wow" in Loki season 2?

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N.C. Young

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NcyRocks

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will-elizabeth-ii-become-the-longes

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Will Elizabeth II become the longest-reigning sovereign monarch with exact verified dates?

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fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

5.382588595325388

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play

NO

public

1659257544089

N.C. Young

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When will J.M. have her first tooth?

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1.2775860168918283

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1659271180018

Sjlver

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Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?

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XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

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0.2961064132598965

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YES

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1659273547693

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Will Fuecoco evolve to be a fire-fighting pokémon.

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3.8285659801123257

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Rika

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will-andrew-clean-the-stove-by-tues

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Will Andrew clean the stove by Tuesday, August 2nd, 6pm?

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Daniella Anconetani

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will-taiwan-declare-independence-in

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Will Taiwan declare independence in 2022?

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5.192258147625966

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[Feature Suggestion] Will Manifold add date markets?

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3.872299129363493

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What will be the average number of unique bettors across my two most recently created markets, this market, and my next two markets?

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1659366666452

Charlie

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What year (+time of year) will Toby Fox release Deltarune Chapter 7?

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Ibozz91

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Will the Danny Masterson rape accusers be forced into religious arbitration?

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Peak concurrent users on the day of the EA Gather Town Unconference #1?

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1659376091096

Emrik Garden

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Taco Tuesday 8/2: How many people will come?

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July retro: What went well?

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July Retro: What could have gone better?

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Alex Lien

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What paper/article about Computer Science related prediction market research will I find most useful?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i will do whatever I want to. I will maybe tip people who bet and comment", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will Seattle’s temperature meet or exceed 100 degrees F in August, as reported by @KSeattleWeather?

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maniman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if the temperature in August, 2022 reaches or exceeds 100 degrees in Seattle, Washington.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will china face an existential risk this year? Will the CCP face a credible threat to their continued existence? Will there be regime change? Will Xi Jinping get tossed?

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Dan Sparkman

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